Saturday, May 3, 2014

Dr Chan Yan Chong-Commentary 02.05.2014 - More Value In Cutting Up Monopolies? It Depends

More Value In Cutting Up Monopolies? It Depends…
DR CHAN YAN CHONG | 02 MAY 2014

Tension in Ukraine raised by a few notches recently when the Russian parliament authorised Putin to the use of force in Ukraine. Alarmed, the Ukrainian interim government was quick to accuse Putin for trying to start a third world war. The G7 called for an emergency meeting to impose further sanctions against Russia, and that gave the US stock market an excuse for going into adjustment.

The third world war accusation was certainly exaggerated, for that was what the Ukrainian interim government hoped would stimulate the United States to send in troops to help them regain control of eastern Ukraine. On the other hand, America would never do that, because the Crimean region is in fact inhabited by people from Russian descent. Ukraine will hold its presidential election in May, and Putin’s series of actions is calculated to influence its outcome. The biggest problem facing Ukraine today is that of an economic collapse, which will throw the country into poverty and debt. Russia threatened to cut off its gas supply to Ukraine if it does not pay up its outstanding gas bill. Although the European Union (EU) has pledged to help, the Ukrainian government has yet to receive any aid money. The US government has just started redeploying its global strategic plan and pivot back to Asia, and it is not likely to stray from this strategy.

Friday, May 2, 2014

曾淵滄專欄02.05.14:投機買賣嚴守止蝕

恒指周二升逾300點,周三打回原形,當日外圍走勢不差,惟獨恒指急跌,看來只有外資大戶才有這個能耐,能在兩日內先殺淡倉再殺好倉,本地散戶早已準備放假,無心戰鬥,估計今年以來輸錢的散戶多,贏錢的散戶少。散戶所以輸錢是因為他們一般無撈底的膽量,也不知道底在何處,何時該撈底。一般散戶都是等到股價大幅上升後,有朋友或傳媒叫買才入場,買的是貴貨,買後有可能再上升,但升幅已有限,勉強賺粒糖,賺了幾次一粒糖仍不夠狠狠地輸一次。為何狠狠地虧損?因為不止蝕。為何不止蝕?因為之前一見股價跌就止蝕或止賺,但是止蝕或止賺後股價再升,後悔了,後悔了幾次就不再止蝕。如你打算短炒投機就不能不止蝕,你可能之前10次止蝕皆錯,每次止蝕後股價就上升,但在第11次需止蝕時,你仍要依計劃止蝕,這是投機的紀律。

Tuesday, April 29, 2014

曾淵滄專欄29.04.14:散戶死心低吸良機

踏入2014年,恒指就是大型上落市,能正確捕捉趨勢低買高賣者,利潤不菲,反之高追後在低價止蝕者輸得也慘,更嚴重問題是損手了兩三次後信心全失,相信現在不少散戶已心灰意冷。股市永遠只有在別人失去信心、低價拋售時入市才是正道,高追希望股價再升不是不可能,但風險已大,要見好就收,限制了利潤,最終就算賺到錢也只是一粒糖,低價入市者算好股息回報率,一開始就可以作長線投資,不論買入後股價升跌,收股息的回報也不錯,入市信心更大。

內銀股竟變收息股
恒指昨日再跌,但是以收息為主要目的的公用股逆市上升,相信有長線投資者入市作收息用,內銀股原本不是收息股,但內銀股股價一跌再跌,而盈利依然不錯,其股息率就很有吸引力,可以當收息股來持有。

Monday, April 28, 2014

曾淵滄專欄 28.04.14:美資大行推冧港股

上周五恒指急跌339點,跌幅達1.5%,比滬綜指跌幅還大,港股下跌後晚上美股也跟着跌,跌幅也不小,很明顯地推倒港股的是美資大行。過去幾年港股經常成為領先美股走勢的訊號,這是好事,說明香港的重要性,的確是世界三大股市中心,與倫敦、紐約扮演領導股市角色。

烏克蘭局勢再度緊張,俄國國會授權普京對烏克蘭動武,引起烏克蘭臨時政府的緊張,以普京欲挑起第三次世界大戰來形容當前的形勢,G7開緊急會議要進一步制裁俄羅斯,美股的調整也就有個理由來解釋。
Warren E. Buffett(沃伦•巴菲特)
Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful
别人贪婪时我恐惧, 别人恐惧时我贪婪
投资只需学好两门课: 一,是如何给企业估值,二,是如何看待股市波动
吉姆·罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)
“错过时机”胜于“搞错对象”:不会全军覆没!”
做自己熟悉的事,等到发现大好机会才投钱下去

乔治·索罗斯(George Soros)

“犯错误并没有什么好羞耻的,只有知错不改才是耻辱。”

如果操作过量,即使对市场判断正确,仍会一败涂地。

李驰(中国巴菲特)
高估期间, 卖对, 不卖也对, 买是错的。
低估期间, 买对, 不买也是对, 卖是错的。

Tan Teng Boo


There’s no such thing as defensive stocks.Every stock can be defensive depending on what price you pay for it and what value you get,
冷眼(冯时能)投资概念
“买股票就是买公司的股份,买股份就是与陌生人合股做生意”。
合股做生意,则公司股份的业绩高于一切,而股票的价值决定于盈利。
价值是本,价格是末,故公司比股市重要百倍。
曹仁超-香港股神/港股明灯
1.有智慧,不如趁势
2.止损不止盈
成功者所以成功,是因为不怕失败!失败者所以失败,是失败后不再尝试!
曾淵滄-散户明灯
每逢灾难就是机会,而是在灾难发生时贱价买股票,然后放在一边,耐性地等灾难结束
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