Saturday, March 1, 2014

Sector Savvy - REITS


Home prices will ease further: CapitaLand


Friday, February 28, 2014

Neratel: Lower Growth Expectations (DMG)

Neratel: Lower Growth Expectations
(NEUTRAL, SGD0.72, TP: SGD0.72)

NeraTel’s 4Q13 SGD3.8m PATMI (-0.6% y-o-y) and SGD44.5m revenue (-2.0% y-o-y) were below expectations. This was largely to disappointments in its telecom segment. Going forward, we lower our growth expectations as it will focus more on earnings quality and high dividend payouts. Downgrade to NEUTRAL with a lower SGD0.72 TP (from SDG0.80) based on 12.4x FY14F P/E (+1 SD to its 5-year average).

Noble Group - Recovery priced in (CIMB)

Noble Group
Current S$0.99
Target S$1.00
Recovery priced in

▊ Noble’s FY13 core net profit of US$354m (-20% yoy) was 15% above our full-year forecast and 10% above consensus. The positive variance stems from higher-than-expected gross margins and lower-than-expected depreciation. Overall, the results were encouraging as bottom-up initiatives to cut costs and improve efficiencies are starting to bear fruit. We lift our FY14-15 core EPS by 1-11% for stronger margins and introduce FY16 numbers. However, at 1.1x CY14 P/BV (prev. 10x CY15 P/E), to which our target price is now pegged (change in valuation basis to align with its peer, Olam), we think that a recovery has already been priced in. We keep our Hold rating and would re-visit the stock on better Agriculture showing.

Wilmar International - Run-of-the-mill quarter ahead (CIMB)

Wilmar International -
Current S$3.37
Target S$4.16
Run-of-the-mill quarter ahead

Wilmar's results briefing left us feeling more positive on its investment in Shree Renuka and the outlook for its palm and laurics division. However, this is offset by its guidance of weaker crush margins qoq as meal demand has softened in China. Overall, we expect 1Q14 earnings to soften qoq due to lower contributions from oilseeds & grains and sugar milling. We maintain our SOP-based target price and Add rating. Stronger-than-expected earnings recovery and potential M&As are the main potential re-rating catalysts.

曾淵滄專欄28.02.14:大戶發威秒殺淡友

港股在期指結算日突然大殺淡倉,恒指由一度下跌變成收市時上升390點,沒有甚麼特別消息,也沒有受到外圍股市的鼓動,昨日A股只算是微升,前日美股也同樣只是微升,因此昨日的升幅,純粹就是大戶發威,殺光看淡的小股民。

在大戶力撐下,連業績倒退的中電(002),也同樣錄得1.16%的升幅,當然,我們也可以說中電業績的倒退是意料中事,中電已預告會在未來數年,每年加電費,因此,今年業績倒退的問題不大,將來加電費可追回今年倒退的盈利。

Neptune Orient Lines -Grinding through the worst of times (MKE)

Neptune Orient Lines
Share Price: SGD1.005
Target Price: SGD1.00
Grinding through the worst of times

§ 4Q13 net loss of USD137.2m in line with expectations.
§ Structural overcapacity will continue to depress freight rates in 2014.
§ Expect another loss-making year with little scope for stock re-rating. Maintain HOLD and TP of SGD1.00.

Poor results in line with expectations
NOL reported a poor set of fourth-quarter results to end the year with net loss of USD137.2m (4Q12: USD91.1m).

Thursday, February 27, 2014

Ascott Residence Trust: Delivering the first shot in Dalian (DBSV)

Ascott Residence Trust:
STI : 3,086.64
BUY S$1.18
Price Target : 12-Month S$ 1.33
Delivering the first shot in Dalian

•First acquisition in Dalian, China for Rmb 571m
•Accretive to earnings; more to come
•Maintain BUY and S$1.33 TP

Delivering its first acquisition in Dalian; implied yield of 5.5% is accretive.  Ascott REIT announced the proposed acquisition of a 125-unit serviced residence in Dalian for Rmb 571m (cS$118.6m) from a third party. The property is located in the heart of Jinzhou New District, which has seen robust foreign direct investments in recent years and is home to many established multinational corporations. The purchase price implies an EBITDA yield of 5.5%, which is higher than its current portfolio yield of 5.4% for its serviced residences in China.  The acquisition will be funded with proceeds from the recent rights issue and is estimated to results in a 1.5% uplift in DPUs. Gearing will inch up to c36%.

Sheng Siong - In need of some new stores (CIMB)

Sheng Siong Group  
Current S$0.60
Target S$0.67
In need of some new stores

▊ 4Q13 did not throw up negative surprises. But, without the tailwinds of store expansion ahead, neither can earnings surprise positively. Sheng Siong remains a steady cashflow generator with a decent 4.3% dividend yield, and minimum growth. Its FY13 profits of S$38.9m was largely in line, forming 99% of our full-year forecast. Its total retail space remains unchanged at 400k sq ft. Management expects all 11 new stores opened in FY11 and FY12 to still grow in 2014; we think it is difficult to do more than 3-5% SSSG. We cut our FY14-15 EPS by 9-10%, causing our target price (still based on 22x CY15 P/E, in line with Dairy Farm’s) to fall. We maintain our Add call, with store additions (if and when economic growth slows) being a potential catalyst.

Neptune Orient Lines- It could have been worse (CIMB)

Neptune Orient Lines
Current S$1.01
Target S$1.10
It could have been worse

▊ NOL’s full-year core net loss of US$305m was in line at 99% of our expectation, and could have been much worse if it had not cut US$470m from its costs last year, as it replaced expensive long-term charters with newly delivered ships. The annual loss shrank slightly from the US$362m in 2012, with the yoy drop in average freight rates almost wholly offsetting the cost savings. We fine-tune our forecasts, and introduce our FY16 numbers. Our call remains a Hold, but we reduce the target price slightly as we lower the target multiple from 1.1x CY14 P/BV to 1.05x, still based on the average since 2012.

Wilmar International - Stronger 4Q crushing margins (CIMB)

Wilmar International
Current S$3.36
Target S$4.16
Stronger 4Q crushing margins

▊ Wilmar's FY13 core net profit was 1% below consensus but 2% above our estimate due mainly to lower effective tax rate. Earnings improved for all key divisions other than plantations and fertiliser. A final dividend of S$0.055 was declared, bringing the total dividend to S$0.08. We are neutral on the group’s announcement that it plans to invest US$200m in Shree Renuka Sugar. We fine-tune our earnings forecasts and raise our SOP-based target price slightly to S$4.16. Wilmar remains an Add as we believe that the market has not fully priced in the potential growth of its maturing new business and investments in higher-margin products. It is also attractive from a valuation standpoint as the stock trades at 1.1x FY14 P/BV, compared to its historical average of 1.9x.

曾淵滄專欄 27.02.14:土地供應竟有新意

昨天是特區政府宣讀財政預算案的日子,但全日港股的走勢,與財政預算案的內容卻沒有任何關係,港股全日走勢依然緊跟內地股市。A股收市時由跌轉升,恒指收市也就高收,上升120點。

提及商業及酒店地
儘管港股走勢完全沒受財政預算案影響,但我還是認為,今年的財政預算案中,有相當部份是值得投資者留意的。

CapitaLand - Taking a big bath (CIMB)

CapitaLand
Current S$2.91
Target S$3.51
Taking a big bath

▊ 4Q13 was a quarter of kitchen sinking, as impairment and divestment losses resulted in poor headline numbers. Excluding these, core net profit was decent. With Singapore housing making up just a fraction of its GAV, FY14 operational growth will now depend on China sales and CMA. The latter is showing good progress. At the CapLand level, we think ROEs may only accelerate from 2015. CMA’s share price has de-rated recently. Between the two, we now prefer CMA. CapLand’s 4Q13 core profit was in line at 28% of our full year (FY13 at 95%), and 23% of consensus. We lower our FY14-15 core EPS on slower China sales, and cut our target price on a higher 25% discount to RNAV (20% before). Maintain Add on valuations.

Wednesday, February 26, 2014

CapitaLand: Impacted by one-offs (DBSV)

CapitaLand:
STI : 3,088.79
BUY S$2.91
Price Target : 12-month S$ 3.90 (Prev S$ 3.93)
Impacted by one-offs

•Results dragged by impairments and one-off losses
•Focus on driving operational performance should provide a stronger growth platform in the longer run
•Maintain Buy, TP S$3.90

Amtek Engineering -On Track For Recovery (UOBKH)

Amtek Engineering -
Share Price S$0.52
Target Price S$0.63
1HFY14: PBT +19.3% yoy; On Track For Recovery

FINANCIAL RESULTS
• On track for a recovery year. 1HFY14 revenue rose 5% yoy to US$334.2m, forming 51.8% of our full-year forecast. Excluding one-off items, adjusted profit before tax would have been US$18.3m (+19.3% yoy), which forms 52% of our fullyear forecast. For 2QFY14, revenue rose 6% yoy, with adjusted profit before tax growing 13.5% yoy to US$8.4m.

Genting Singapore- Value in balance sheet (CIMB)

Genting Singapore
Current S$1.40
Target S$1.81
Value in balance sheet

▊ GENS’s 4Q13 core net profit was only half of our estimate, resulting in FY13 core EPS coming in 15% below our expectation. The S$90m shortfall in 4Q13 core net profit can be explained by: 1) the below-average win rate of 2.5% (S$62m hit on bottomline), and 2) the S$28m additional provisioning for the ageing of receivables. Adjusting for these two factors, it appears that our view that GENS’s earnings are bottoming out and turning the corner is materialising. We cut our FY14-15 EPS by 10% and RNAV-based target price to conservatively assume that the additional provisioning for the ageing of receivables will continue indefinitely. Maintain Add. GENS has started to use its excess capital with the Jeju Island JV. More deals will be key catalysts.

Hyflux - Missing the mark (CIMB)

Hyflux
Current S$1.24
Target S$1.04
Missing the mark

▊ Hyflux’s 4Q13 results were derailed by a power plant delay that hit its recurring earnings and main earnings driver, given the lack of new project wins. Its FY13 core net profit missed both consensus and our expectations by coming in at only 81% of our full-year forecast. We lower our FY14-15 EPS by 15-25% on higher cost and lower order-win assumptions, and introduce our FY16 numbers. Our SOP-based target price is also lower to reflect fewer order wins, though this is partially offset by higher market multiples for its water portfolios. We downgrade our call from Hold to Reduce as we believe a higher project win rate is needed to sustain its earnings growth, while the slower 1H14 guided by management is also not helping the investment case.

曾淵滄專欄26.02.14:長揸績優股有着數

美股前晚大幅上升,昨日港股開市順勢反彈,但午後卻因為內地股市插水而倒跌。A股前日下跌,謠言滿天飛,昨日反而不再出現甚麼消息,但A股就是跌不停,收市後,也自然有分析員會找些理由來解釋,對已經發生了的事作解釋,價值其實不大,更重要的是A股幾時能止跌。

過去,每逢中央兩會開幕前夕,股市必有炒作,炒兩會概念股,今年該算是例外,兩會開幕在即,不但沒有炒作氣氛,A股更一跌再跌,人民銀行也無緣無故地收緊銀根,實在不易參透其中玄機,只好見步行步。

Pan-United - Acquires CCIP port in Changshu (DBSV)

Pan-United Corporation,
STI : 3,086.64
HOLD S$0.905
(Downgrade from BUY)
Price Target : 12-Month S$ 1.03 (Prev S$ 1.21)
Acquires CCIP port in Changshu
 
•Paid RMB437m at 1.3x book for 90% stake in Changshu Changjiang International Port (CCIP); funded by 50% debt, 50% internal cash
•Plans to expand CXP’s port operations through CCIP’s additional capacity
•Net debt increased to 0.5x, earnings reduced by 8% on higher interest cost
•Downgrade to HOLD with lower S$1.03 TP

Tuesday, February 25, 2014

CapitaCommercial Trust - Turning green with envy (Daiwa)

CapitaCommercial Trust
Target (SGD): 1.650
17 Feb price (SGD): 1.395

Turning green with envy
• We believe CCT is one of the best proxies for the Singapore Office Sector and its potential for a spot-rent recovery in 2014
• CCT enjoys an attractive risk-reward ratio through its CapitaGreen exposure and industry-low gearing of 29%
• We upgrade to Buy (1) from Outperform (2) with a new DDM derived 6-month target price of SGD1.69 (previously SGD1.65)

Suntec REIT - Remains our top pick (Daiwa)

Suntec REIT
Target (SGD): 2.000
17 Feb price (SGD): 1.665

Remains our top pick
• The uncertainty about the Suntec City AEI was one factor for its valuation discount; its resolution could be a positive catalyst
• As Suntec completes its AEI, we forecast a 2013-16 DPU CAGR of 12.8%, the highest in the S-REIT Sector
• Reiterating Buy (1) rating and 6-month target price of SGD2.00, which compared with a book value of SGD2.13 (as at end-2013)

Singapore Office REITs - A bright spot in 2014 (Daiwa)

Singapore Office REITs - A bright spot in 2014
Written By Stock Fanatic on Wednesday, February 19, 2014
• We believe office S-REITs are compelling for their exposure to a segment that is experiencing a recovery in spot rents

• Price weakness since 4Q13 has made valuations more attractive; trading at PBRs of 0.78-0.82x vs. S-REIT weighted avg of 0.94x

• We upgrade CCT to Buy (1) from Outperform (2), and KREIT to Outperform (2) from Hold (3); Suntec remains our top pick

CapitaMall Trust: Worth a revisit (OCBC)

CapitaMall Trust:
Fair value S$2.20
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.110
versus: Current price S$1.81
Worth a revisit

CapitaMall Trust (CMT) has continued to underperform both its local retail REIT peers and the broader S-REITs sector YTD, despite its enhanced portfolio assets, financial position and strong track record. At current price, we believe that valuation is increasingly compelling, now that CMT is trading at 1.04x P/B, and offers a FY14F yield of 6.1%. In the past year, CMT has benefitted from higher secured rentals at several of its portfolio properties post asset enhancement initiatives (AEIs). We believe CMT will continue to focus largely on organic growth via AEI and tenant repositioning to improve its portfolio yield. The domestic landscape has also been supportive of the retail leasing demand, given the relatively resilient retail sales, expanding population and interest from international and new-to-market retailers. Maintain BUY and S$2.20 fair value on CMT.

Saizen REIT - Dividend yield still attractive despite Yen weakness (NRA)

Saizen REIT
Current Price S$0.92
Fair Value S$1.03
Dividend yield still attractive despite Yen weakness

 Operational performance in line. Saizens’s 2Q14 net operating income of JPY449m was in line with our JPY445m net operating income. We maintain our valuation of Saizen at S$1.03 assuming a JPY/S$ exchange rate of 81. Its yield remains attractive at 6.8% in FY14F and 7.0% in FY15F. Its current PBR of 0.77x is low compared to PBR of 1.1x of listed peers in Japan. Maintain Overweight.

曾淵滄專欄25.02.14:內房插水理由無稽

港股昨開市時表現尚佳,其後卻突然急瀉,其中內房股跌勢驚人。謠言滿天飛,解釋大跌市理由也很多,有說有內地銀行不再借錢給地產商,有說新華社發表題為「樓市真的會崩盤嗎」的文章,指內地房地產泡沫太大,就快崩盤,也有人指人民幣連跌多日,是不是外資流出?最後,滬綜指收市跌1.75%,恒指在A股收市後略有反彈,收市跌0.8%不算多,當然個別內房股跌幅巨大。

對上述謠言與分析,我一概不相信,也不認為是正確的分析。我不相信銀行會停止借錢給地產商,內地房地產市道已兩極化,一二線城市因為人口越來越集中,而且多是購買力強的人,過去十年,中央政府已出盡九牛二虎之力,依然壓不下一二線城市的樓價;不過,三四線城市就的確出了問題,這也不是新的問題,地產商們也很快地做了調整,寧可付高價在一二線城市搶地,也不再到三四線城市開發。

Pan-United Corp - Building on its success (CIMB)

Pan-United Corp -
Current S$0.92
Target S$1.18
Building on its success

PAN is expanding its port capacity by acquiring its neighbour’s capacity. We lower our FY14-15 EPS to account for financial costs, though our residual-income target price rises by 4.5% on future contributions from its expanded port business. We retain our Add rating, with potential catalysts from contributions from its BBR segment and improved earnings from its enlarged CXP operations.

Monday, February 24, 2014

Biosensor International - News on potential acquisition by Citic PE, a stronger signal of privatisation (CS)

Biosensor International -
Price (18 Feb 14 , S$) 1.00
TP (prev. TP S$) 1.00 (1.00)
News on potential acquisition by Citic PE, a stronger signal of privatisation

■ Biosensor's stock jumped by 17.2% from S$0.87 to S$1.02 within 15 minutes during lunch-period trading. Right after it, Bloomberg News reported that Citic Private Equity Funds Management Co. is considering buying full control of medical device-maker, Biosensors International Group Ltd., according to two people with knowledge of the deliberations.

The stock halted trading in the afternoon and it is unclear when the trading will resume.

Goodpack : On track with new accounts (OCBC)

Goodpack Limited:
Fair value S$2.17
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.05
versus: Current price S$1.87
On track with new accounts

Goodpack’s revenue and PATMI for 2QFY14 met our expectations by increasing 9.8% YoY to US$50.9m and 12.0% to US$12.5m respectively. 1HFY14 revenue at US$103.0m forms 99.9% and 49.1% of our 1HFY14 and FY14 forecasts respectively. Correspondingly, 1HFY14 PATMI at US$26.4m forms 100.4% and 49.0% of our 1HFY14 and FY14 forecasts. We maintain our previous investment thesis that new accounts and segments will drive growth as Goodpack acquired a new synthetic rubber client in China and also three new auto parts clients to start off with trials. We maintain our BUY call with a DCF-based fair value of S$2.17.

Sin Heng Heavy Machinery -Ex FX hedging, top-line intact (Philip)

Sin Heng Heavy Machinery -
Closing Price (SGD)0.250
Forecast Dividend (SGD)0.007
Closing Price (SGD)0.189
Ex FX hedging, top-line intact

■ Trading Revenue (41.4M) up +48% yoy due to increased regional sales, Rental Revenue (11.7M) down -13% yoy due to expected slowdown in SG due to project completions.

■ Reported net profit (0.27M) decreased 91.1% yoy. However, adjusting for FX hedging, adj. net profit decreased slightly by -5.8% yoy to an estimated 2.86M SGD which is an increase of +4.9% 1H14 vs 1H13.

Croesus Retail Trust - Continues to deliver (DBSV)

Croesus Retail Trust
STI : 3,038.71
BUY S$0.915
Price Target : 12-Month S$ 1.02
Continues to deliver

• Improved results boosted by better operating cost management and slightly higher than expected revenue growth
• Rental reversion outlook for Mallage Shobu bright; acquisition drivers in place
• Maintain Buy and S$1.02 TP

Highlights
Continues to beat forecast. CRT reported 2Q14 distribution income of JPY713m, 6% above forecast, translating to a DPU of 2.02Scts. This was achieved on a 1.2% higher than projected revenue of JPY1.287bn and lower than expected interest expense. NPI improved 2.4% on better operating cost management. Maiden DPU of 5.24Scts for the period 10 May 2013- 30 Jun 2014, is expected to be paid on 31 Mar 2014. Book closure date is 26 Feb 2014.

曾淵滄專欄24.12.14:辣招見頂利地產股

俗稱辣招的特別印花稅在立法會三讀通過,多位泛民議員離席不投票,他們不投票不是因為他們反對辣招,他們是不滿政府沒有預先把辣招的法案送到立法會審議,而是先執行後立法,也許就是有這群泛民議員有抗議,故張炳良局長在立法會上口頭承諾將來辣招如果加辣,必先到立法會審議,相反,減辣則依然會是先執行後立法。張局長的口頭承諾,幾乎等於向大家說:今後「辣招加辣」的可能很低了。

對房地產商及地產股的投資者而言,這是好消息,辣招清楚化、見了頂,今後不必擔心政府突然再加辣,自從去年雙倍印花稅推出,中原城市領先指數的跌幅也只有5%,相信政府並不會滿足於這僅僅的5%的跌幅,政府的確有「加辣」的誘因,現在因為泛民議員的抗議,政府決定自綁手腳,「加辣」不易了。

LIPPO MALLS INDO RETAIL TRUST - 4Q13 A MISS (DBSV)

LIPPO MALLS INDO RETAIL TRUST
• Weak IDR drags down results
• Repaid S$147.5m facility
• Maintain HOLD
4Q13 A MISS

4Q13 gross rental income contracts 4%
LMIRT’s 4Q13 results were significantly below ours and the street’s expectations. FY13 DPU of 3.25 S cents formed only ~93% of ours and the street’s prior estimate. LMIRT reported 4Q13 gross rental income of S$33.9m, down 4.0% YoY. Net property income (NPI) was S$31.1m, down 5.5% YoY. 4Q13 average IDR/SGD rate depreciated 15.4% YoY, pulling down the results. In IDR-terms, 4Q13 gross rental income and NPI increased by 13.5% YoY and 11.7% YoY respectively. Distributable income fell by 14.6% YoY to S$13.8m and 4Q13 DPU contracted 24.3% YoY to 0.56 S cents (down 36% QoQ).

Sunday, February 23, 2014

大马超级富豪第7名:杨忠礼家庭事业两得意

大马超级富豪第7名:杨忠礼家庭事业两得意
Created 02/12/2014 - 10:23
2012年,杨忠礼机构(YTLCORP,4677,主板建筑股)以低调的风头,财富稳健增长;去年也一样,虽然企业大消息不多,但稳中取胜,杨忠礼身家共涨3亿6200万令吉或3.7%。

在《南洋富豪榜》上,尽管连续两年排名第7,但杨忠礼去年晋身“百亿俱乐部”会员,身家总值达101亿1500万令吉。

杨忠礼机构业务遍布全球,也和我们的日常生活息息相关。

大马超级富豪第6名:两项私有化虽碰钉 郭令灿越战越勇

大马超级富豪第6名:两项私有化虽碰钉 郭令灿越战越勇
Created 02/11/2014 - 10:49
2013年对于丹斯里郭令灿而言并不顺遂,因为他先后要私有化香港上市公司国浩集团(Guoco Group)和旗下的丰隆资本(HLCAP,5274,主板金融股)都以失败告终。

两项私有化计划碰钉子,粉碎了私有化一帆风顺的“美梦”,也为日后欲进行私有化的企业,起了一个“警惕”作用。

回顾2013年,郭令灿的上市资产按年增加4亿3600万令吉,或4.2%,累积财富达108亿5600万令吉。

大马超级富豪第5名:种植兼产业霸主 李深静分家铺路

大马超级富豪第5名:种植兼产业霸主 李深静分家铺路
Created 02/10/2014 - 10:02
忙、忙、忙,可说是丹斯里李深静在2013年的最佳写照。

忙着分拆、忙着上市、忙着收购,还忙着帮第二代“分家”。

将IOI集团(IOICORP,1961,主板种植股)和IOI产业(IOIPG,5249,主板产业股)一拆为二,李深静同时也卸下“最年长CEO”的强人身分,将两大资产交由长子和幼子管理,可说是国内首个“最明确分家”的华商!

自IOI产业在2009年私有化后,IOI集团的核心业务———原棕油,就一直掩盖了产业业务的风采。

大马超级富豪第4名:郑鸿标稳打稳扎

大马超级富豪第4名:郑鸿标稳打稳扎
Created 02/09/2014 - 12:20
虽然大众银行(PBBANK,1295,主板金融股)不会有猛攻抢进的扩充计划,但是业绩及股价稳健成长,反映出其稳中求进的成功之道。从成立大众银行至今,大马富豪———丹斯里郑鸿标,以谨慎及风险管控严密而闻名,除了是国内第二大市值的银行之外,也是最大市值的华资公司。

他在2013年上市资产的财富,也按年增加19.2%,至180亿1000万令吉,在富豪榜的排名则保持在4位不变。不过,缺乏明确接班人的计划,却成为市场的隐忧。

稳打稳扎是郑鸿标长久以来坚守的原则,而这企业文化也成功让大众银行在经历大风大浪仍屹立不倒。

大马超级富豪第3名:云顶业务版图横跨3时区 林国泰每秒有钱赚

大马超级富豪第3名:云顶业务版图横跨3时区 林国泰每秒有钱赚
Created 02/08/2014 - 10:26
时间就是金钱,没有本钱的人要得更多财富,惟有牺牲时间;1天24小时,扣除休息时间,每人可用来赚钱时间有限。

但“大马赌王”丹斯里林国泰掌舵的云顶(Genting,3182,主板贸服股)业务版图遍布亚洲、美洲和欧洲,横跨3时区,24小时运转,每一秒都有钱入袋!

赌场在3个时区不停运作,稳坐“2013年南洋富豪榜”季军,林国泰演活了香港电影中经典对白“我每分钟几百万元上下”,睡梦中也有钱赚!

大马超级富豪第2名:阿南达静悄悄退场?

大马超级富豪第2名:阿南达静悄悄退场?
Created 02/07/2014 - 09:50
阿南达是上届南洋富豪榜冠军得主,身家虽有增无减,但涨幅却不及郭鹤年,导致排名滑落一位,跌到亚军位置,无缘蝉联冠军头衔!

这位被誉为“私有化大王”的商业钜擘,去年似乎比过往更低调,一如过往鲜少出现在传媒镜头前,同时企业活动也没多少。

过去一年,阿南达在事业上并没有如早期般大展拳脚,就连他“热衷”的私有化活动也似乎暂告一段落。

大马超级富豪第1名:一改低调展现爱国情怀 郭鹤年坚持根留大马

大马超级富豪第1名:一改低调展现爱国情怀 郭鹤年坚持根留大马
Created 02/06/2014 - 09:08
去年,步入90岁的丹斯里郭鹤年,一改低调作风,不只发表“爱国论”,更通过投资行动展现他骨子里的大马根永不变。

自近几年频频脱售国内资产,有关他撤离大马的传言满天飞。

在通过言论及行动粉碎传言后,却又传出郭鹤年或传位给二房的疑云,谣言可说一波接一波。

由于他年纪渐大,郭氏家族未来接班人相信会继续成为热门话题。

Goodpack - Decent 2Q but could be better (DBSV)

Goodpack
STI : 3,038.71
BUY S$1.87
Price Target : 12-Month S$ 2.25
Decent 2Q but could be better

• 2Q14 net profit rose 12% y-o-y but slightly below on high employee benefit expenses
• Expect stronger 2H; new contracts for autoparts and SR rolling in
• Maintain BUY and S$2.25 TP

Highlights
2Q could be better. 2Q14 (FYE Jun) results were slightly below due to higher than expected employee benefit expenses (+11% yo- y; +26% q-o-q). Revenue grew 10% y-o-y but was down 2% qo- q due to customers’ 2-week Christmas closure while ramp up of Singapore synthetic rubber (SR) plants to almost 100% was only effective in Dec. As a result, recurring net profit rose 12% y-o-y but was down 10.5% q-o-q.

Courts Asia -Hard slog recovery (CIMB)

Courts Asia
Current S$0.58
Target S$0.61
Hard slog recovery

Without the booming Malaysia credit sales of early FY13, a return to stronger profitability looks like a hard slog. 3Q/9M14 profits made up only 19%/62% of our full-year estimates and 20%/65% of consensus due to poor margins. 3Q showed 1) a sequential recovery in Malaysia, after credit sales were reined in earlier, but 2) a 13% qoq decline in Singapore sales, albeit from a 2Q when new Apple products had inflated sales. Singapore delinquencies are rising. Management is cautious and views the Singapore retail outlook as weak. It is more optimistic on Malaysia. We cut FY14-16 EPS by 13-16% to factor in lower margins as credit sales drift lower. Our residual income-based target price is lowered to S$0.61. We maintain a Hold rating in the absence of a recovery.

Hutchison Port Holdings Trust: 4Q13 one-off items hit P&L (OCBC)

Hutchison Port Holdings Trust:
Fair value US$0.63
add: 12m dividend forecast US$0.05
versus: Current price US$0.66
4Q13 one-off items hit P&L

HPHT reported 4Q13 earnings results that were lower than ours and the street’s expectations due to one-off items: (1) concession to shipping lines after previous industrial action at HIT, (2) write-off of an upfront fee after the US$3.6b bank loan refinancing, and (3) exchange loss from the conversion of USD to HKD for repayment of bank loan for the ACT acquisition.

Dah Chong Hong -Earnings Could Have Bottomed Out in 2013 (UOBKH)

Dah Chong Hong Holdings (1828 HK)
Share Price HK$4.64
Target Price HK$5.00
Earnings Could Have Bottomed Out in 2013

DCH will post its 2013 results on 20 February. We expect 2013 net profit to drop by 25% yoy to HK$783m vs consensus estimate of HK$933m. The reporting of 2013 results may trigger a downgrade of 2014 consensus earnings. But we believe the 33% stock price drop over the last quarter should have factored in weak 2013 results. For 2014, we expect DCH’s profit to recover in line with sales recovery of Japanese cars and Bentley. Maintain HOLD but cut target price to HK$5.00. Entry price: HK$4.00.

CapitaMalls Asia: Steady data from Chinese malls (OCBC)

CapitaMalls Asia:

Steady data from Chinese malls

-4Q13 results in line
-Chinese mall data healthy
Fair value S$2.40
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.04
versus: Current price S$1.74
-Changi Jewel to open by FY18

4Q13 numbers within expectations
CapitaMalls Asia (CMA) reported 4Q13 PATMI of S$216.4m, which increased 17.1% YoY mainly due to contributions from Star Vista, four new malls in Japan and progressive recognition from Bedok Residences. Adjusting for one-time items and fair value gains, FY13 core PATMI cumulates to S$246.3m, forming 106% of our FY13 forecast and we judge this to be mostly in line. In terms of the topline, 4Q13 revenues came in at S$103.7m, down 8.7% YoY mainly due to lower leasing commission and project management fees from China. The group announced a final dividend of 1.75 Scents per share.
Warren E. Buffett(沃伦•巴菲特)
Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful
别人贪婪时我恐惧, 别人恐惧时我贪婪
投资只需学好两门课: 一,是如何给企业估值,二,是如何看待股市波动
吉姆·罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)
“错过时机”胜于“搞错对象”:不会全军覆没!”
做自己熟悉的事,等到发现大好机会才投钱下去

乔治·索罗斯(George Soros)

“犯错误并没有什么好羞耻的,只有知错不改才是耻辱。”

如果操作过量,即使对市场判断正确,仍会一败涂地。

李驰(中国巴菲特)
高估期间, 卖对, 不卖也对, 买是错的。
低估期间, 买对, 不买也是对, 卖是错的。

Tan Teng Boo


There’s no such thing as defensive stocks.Every stock can be defensive depending on what price you pay for it and what value you get,
冷眼(冯时能)投资概念
“买股票就是买公司的股份,买股份就是与陌生人合股做生意”。
合股做生意,则公司股份的业绩高于一切,而股票的价值决定于盈利。
价值是本,价格是末,故公司比股市重要百倍。
曹仁超-香港股神/港股明灯
1.有智慧,不如趁势
2.止损不止盈
成功者所以成功,是因为不怕失败!失败者所以失败,是失败后不再尝试!
曾淵滄-散户明灯
每逢灾难就是机会,而是在灾难发生时贱价买股票,然后放在一边,耐性地等灾难结束
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