Saturday, February 22, 2014

Courts Asia - Attractive valuations (DBSV)

Courts Asia
STI : 3,038.71
BUY S$0.575
Price Target : 12-Month S$ 0.70 (Prev S$ 0.77)
Attractive valuations

• 3QFYMar14 results was slightly below expectations on lower than expected sales
• Still positive on prospects
• Maintain BUY with lower TP of S$0.70

Highlights
3Q14 results slightly below. Net earnings of S$6.3m (+2% y-oy) was slightly below our estimate of S$6.8m on lower than expected revenue. Revenue was S$203m (+4% y-o-y), driven by earned service charges in Malaysia.

WCT - KLIA2 Gateway to provide recurring income (MIDF)

WCT Holdings Berhad
Price (11th February 2014) RM2.12
Target Price RM2.88
KLIA2 Gateway to provide recurring income

Management guidance numbers for KLIA2 Gateway income contribution are rather conservative.
We expect WCT to secure between RM1.5b and RM2b worth jobs this year, adding to RM2.7b outstanding orderbook. Aggressive property launches could show encouraging sales numbers in 4QFY13.
Our earnings forecast unchanged.

Tat Hong Holdings - Hope and despair (CIMB)

Tat Hong Holdings -
Current S$0.79
Target S$0.78
Hope and despair

3QFY3/14 core net profit was ahead of expectation at 30% of our full-year forecast. The higher numbers arise after taking out negative FX effect and various one-off items. The same goes for 9MFY3/14 core net profit that formed 91% of our FY13 estimate. We raise our FY14 EPS by 8% to reflect these non-core items, while lowering FY15-16 estimates by 16-17% to reflect rental rates adjustments. Thus, our target price is now lower - still based on 7x CY15 P/E, 1 s.d. below its 5-year average forward P/E. Strictly speaking, TAT has turned around from five quarters of low profitability. However, uncertainties in Australia will eclipse its other growth engines and hinder better valuation multiples as seen in the past. We maintain our Hold call.

Parkson Retail Asia - Recovery in progress (CIMB)

Parkson Retail Asia -
Current S$0.92
Target S$1.51
Recovery in progress

2Q14 showed continuance of the recovery trends seen in 1Q14. At 57% of our FY14 estimate, 1H14 EPS was in line as 2Q is seasonally stronger. Malaysia did well for a consecutive quarter. Vietnam and Indonesia still face challenges with new stores though it does not sound alarming and merely reflects growing pains. Inflation concerns in PRA's mainstay market, Malaysia, were cited as the key challenge for SSSG but we think PRA's mid- to upper-end target segment will be relatively resilient. We see no reason to be negative on PRA which is trading at 12x FY15 P/E, with net cash of 29.5cts. We maintain our Add rating and S$1.51 target price (20x FY15 P/E, based on peer average). Potential catalysts include the possible return of capital in FY15.

CapitaMalls Asia - More growth to come (MKE)

CapitaMalls Asia -
Share Price: SGD1.74
Target Price: SGD2.60
More growth to come

FY13 core PATMI was in line with expectations, growing 40% YoY to SGD246.3m following full-year contributions from The Star Vista and Olinas Mall.

Malls continued to enjoy high occupancy rates of > 96% in China, Malaysia and Japan, and 99.3% in Singapore.

Maintain BUY with TP of SGD2.60, pegged to a 10% discount to RNAV. Reiterate CMA as our top pick in the Singapore property space, with visible earnings growth in FY14-15.

M'sia Property -Rocky Road Ahead (DBSV)

Property -Rocky Road Ahead
KLCI : 1,825.64

Slower sales as weaker demand meets rising supply; but house prices should hold up with cost-push
Risks lie in Iskandar high-end condos, KL office & small built-up hybrid segments
Prefer township developers & investment asset owners.
Top picks: MKH, E&O, WTM

Dark clouds looming. We expect 2014F property sales to decline by 5-10% dragged by slower volume although prices will likely hold up due to cost push (as seen in the past during periods of sharp spikes in inflation). House price growth may moderate to 3% p.a. (9M13: +12.5%) as rising new supply meets weaker demand. Sentiments should remain subdued (at least in 1H14) given recent tightening measures and inflationary pressures. Potential interest rate hike could dampen disposable income further (every +50bps, affordability -1.6ppt). While developers may hold back launches and offer more incentives which will eat into margins, earnings visibility should be intact given current large unbilled sales.

Friday, February 21, 2014

《大马商业》: 郭鹤年再膺榜首 40富豪身家2178亿

《大马商业》: 郭鹤年再膺榜首 40富豪身家2178亿
Created 02/21/2014 - 12:08
(吉隆坡20日讯)大马股市走强和通货膨胀上扬,带动大马40大富豪上市资产过去一年涨升超过10%,“亚洲糖王”郭鹤年再度蝉联榜首。

根据财经杂志《大马商业》(Malaysian Business),归功于标青股市表现,大马首40名富豪身家按年增加高达11.73%。

截至今年1月18日,40大富豪身家共达2178.2亿令吉,超越2013年初创下的1948.6亿令吉。

Biosensors International Group: Weaker than expected 3QFY14 showing (OCBC)

Biosensors International Group:
Fair value S$0.77
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.025
versus: Current price S$0.87
Weaker than expected 3QFY14 showing

Biosensors International Group (BIG) reported another set of lacklustre results, with its 3QFY14 core PATMI dipping by 54.2% YoY to US$11.1m despite a mild 1.4% increase in revenue to US$82.5m. This fell short of our below-consensus forecast. BIG continued to face weak licensing and royalties revenues, coupled with ASP and cost pressures.

Far East Hospitality Trust: 4Q13 results in line (OCBC)

Far East Hospitality Trust:
Fair value S$0.78
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.055
versus: current price S$0.795
4Q13 results in line

FEHT's 4Q13 results were in line with our expectations and the street’s. FY13 distribution per stapled security of 5.64 S cents formed 101% of our forecast and 99% of the street’s median forecast. RevPAR for the hotels, excluding the Rendezvous property (which was acquired on 1 Aug 2013), was S$164.8, down 5.3% YoY, which was expected given challenging industry conditions.

Tat Hong - Poor earnings visibility (DBSV)

Tat Hong
STI : 3,039.90
FULLY VALUED S$0.785
(Downgrade from Hold)
Price Target : 12-month S$ 0.64 (Prev S$ 1.01)

Poor earnings visibility
• 3Q FY14 earnings missed estimate on weak Australian and Indonesian operations
• Slashed FY14F/FY15F earnings by 28%/42%
• Downgrade to Fully Valued; slashed earnings, cut TP to S$0.64

Earnings disappoint. 3Q FY14 profit fell 32% y-o-y to S$12.1m (-32% y-o-y). But excluding S$12.9m onetime gain from land sale, PBT would have been only S$1.8m (-92% y-o-y). 9M FY14 net profit is only 58% of our full year forecast. Losses in Indonesia dragged earnings while Australian operation remained weak on low public spending and slow progress in oil & gas projects.

Biosensors International -NEUTRAL rating for the short-term earnings weakness (CS)

Biosensors International Group Ltd. -
Price (12 Feb 14 , S$) 0.87
TP (prev. TP S$) 1.00 (1.00)
NEUTRAL rating for the short-term earnings weakness; but going private could be a viable option

● 3Q FY14 core earnings declined 44.7% YoY. China revenue was flat as the volume growth was offset by the ASP cut of 15-20%.

● R&D and SG&A expenses rose sharply due to consolidated expenses from SpectrumDynamics and ongoing clinical trials including those for Excel 2 in China, the global study of BioFreedom and the new protocol studies of SpectrumDynamics.

Silverlake Axis: Another Shiny Quarter (DMG)

Silverlake Axis: Another Shiny Quarter
 (BUY SGD0.87, TP: SGD1.00)

In line with expectations, Silverlake Axis (Silverlake) reported yet another strong set of results, with PATAMI rising 23% y-o-y to MYR60.6m on the back of a 24% y-o-y jump in revenue to MYR125.2m. The group continued to demonstrate strong execution capabilities. Reiterate BUY, with our TP unchanged at SGD1.00, based on DCF valuation (WACC: 9.5%, terminal growth rate: 5.0%).

曾淵滄專欄 21.02.14:濠賭續牌背後思維

傳媒報道澳門賭牌續牌的新聞,有人說2020年之後,賭牌續牌會由目前的20年變成5年,目的是用以制衡美國,因為目前有三個賭牌屬於美資所擁有。

我認為這是百分之百的陰謀論,而不是甚麼內幕消息,2020年基本上仍是相當遙遠的時間,絕不是現任政府任內會決定的事,明年的所謂賭牌檢討,應該不是續牌簽約的時候,目前各賭牌擁有者,都在努力地增加投資,投資額以百億元計,澳門政府怎可能在新賭場剛剛落成時宣佈不續約?因此,制衡美國之說是毫無理據的。當年何厚鏵決定開放賭牌,增發的兩個牌,一個是美資的永利(1128),另一個是美資與本地富豪合資的銀娛(027),之後再衍生出三個副牌已是後話,兩個新牌全部與美資有關,這說明何厚鏵的確想引入美資,為澳門賭場帶來新的氣象,新的管理方式。

Religare Health Trust- Stable growth continues (CIMB)

Religare Health Trust
Current S$0.77
Target S$0.91
Stable growth continues

▊ 3Q DPU was largely in line at 26% of consensus and our full-year forecasts. 9MFY3/14 DPU formed 77% of our FY14 forecast. We factor in the updates on various project developments and a lower long-term exchange rate of Rs52:S$ (previously Rs51:S$), lowering FY14-16 DPUs by 1-4%. Stability of RHT’s rupee revenue is supported by its base service fee which we estimate to make up c.70% of FY14-15 revenue, but forex remains a key concern. We maintain our Add rating with a slightly reduced DDM-based target price of S$0.91. Potential catalysts include surprises in ARPOB and earnings delivery.

Thursday, February 20, 2014

ASL Marine - Execution blip a one-off (CIMB)

ASL Marine -
Current S$0.72
Target S$0.89
Execution blip a one-off

1HFY14 core net profit of S$7.1m (+12% yoy) formed 48% of our FY14 forecast and was slightly below expectations. 2QFY14 made up 20% of our FY14 forecast. The negative deviance stemmed from higher taxes and shipbuilding losses. We lower our FY14 EPS by 4% to factor in the weaker set of results and cut our FY15-16 EPS by 16% as we scale back our profitability expectations. Viewing 2Q execution issues as one-offs, we maintain our Add call with a slightly lower target price, still pegged to 0.9x CY14 P/BV or its 5-year mean. Catalysts could come from shipbuilding orders and earnings strength.

SATS - Grounded by weak Yen and high staff costs (DBSV)

SATS -
HOLD S$3.18
STI : 3,029.10
Price Target : 12-Month S$ 3.25 (Prev S$ 3.29)
Grounded by weak Yen and high staff costs

• 3Q14 results below expectations; net profit dropped by 8.7% to S$42.9m
• Weaker contribution from Food Solutions arising from weaker JPY, higher staff costs
• Trim forecasts by 9%/2%
• Maintain HOLD, TP revised to S$3.25

3Q14 results underperform on weaker JPY, higher staff costs. 3Q14 net profit dropped by 8.7% y-o-y to S$42.9m, which was below our expectations. The Group’s revenue slipped by 1.1% to S$465.5m, largely on weaker contribution from its Food Solutions’ segment (-3.9%), mitigated partially by higher contribution from Gateway Services (+4.3%). Food Solutions’ revenue was impacted by JPY depreciation, as well as fewer unit meals served (-5.7%) in 3Q14.

Hutchison Port Holdings Trust 2013: DPU Of HK$0.41 (UOBKH)

Hutchison Port Holdings Trust
Share Price US$0.66
Target Price US$0.80
2013: DPU Of HK$0.41 Slightly Beats Guidance Despite Earnings Declining 25% yoy On Higher Tax Rate

HPHT’s 4Q13 and 2013 net profit declined 47% and 25% yoy respectively but fullyear DPU of HK$0.41 slightly beat company’s guidance. HPHT guided 2014 DPU to be higher than 2013’s and we believe this is achievable on more efficient cash flow management (including capex management). Maintain BUY but cut target price to US$0.80 (from US$0.88).

Silverlake Axis -Strong growth from recurring MES income (Philip)

Silverlake Axis Ltd
Target Price (SGD) 1.02
Forecast Dividend (SGD) 0.04
Closing Price (SGD) 0.90
Strong growth from recurring MES income

•Revenue up 24% y-y, 24% q-q at RM125 million from higher income from software licensing and maintenance and enhancement services
• Net income up 23% y-y, 18% q-q at RM61 million, from higher tax expenses due to lower tax-exempt earnings for the quarter
• Maintain "Accumulate”, with unchanged TP of S$1.02

Genting Singapore: Expanding into Korea (OCBC)

Genting Singapore:
Fair value S$1.47
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.030
versus: Current price S$1.415
Expanding into Korea

Genting Singapore (GS) recently announced that it has established a JV with HK-listed Landing International Development Limited (IIDL) to develop and operate an integrated resort (IR) on Jeju Island, Korea. The JV estimates that the total cost for the IR to be around US$2.2b; GS will contribute around S$194.2m for its share of the JV, which it will fund using internal cash reserves. As GS will be releasing its FY13 results on 20 Feb, we opt not to adjust our estimates for now. We are expecting GS to show a topline of S$2.96b and an underlying net profit of S$573.5m. For now, we have a HOLD rating and S$1.47 fair value on the stock.

曾淵滄專欄20.02.14:舊經濟股諗計變身

東亞銀行(023)揭開炒業績期的序幕,其業績優於市場預期,股價已連升兩日,而且越升越有,相信還有能力再衝高,因此當業績優於市場預期後,大行就會重新評價,出報告力撐。

炒業績不等於業績好,盈利上升就是好事,炒業績最重要的因素是所公佈的業績比市場預期好,就算是虧損,如果虧損程度比市場預期低,也是好事,如果市場認為業績將會是非常亮麗,而所公佈的業績雖好但不夠亮麗,也是壞事。

因此,炒業績先得觀察市場的預期,即大行對該企業的盈利預測,若好過預測,股價即飛升。

Biosensors International -Below expectations on continued Japan weakness, pricing pressure(GS)

Biosensors International Group Ltd.
Price (S$) 0.87
12 month price target (S$) 0.93
Below expectations on continued Japan weakness, pricing pressure

What surprised us
Biosensors (BIG) reported 3Q/9MFY14 results that were below our expectations, with revenues of US$82/242 mn, +1%/-2% yoy (FY14 GHe +3%) and NPAT of US$11.1/34.5 mn, down 54%/60% yoy (FY14 GHe -44%). Interventional Cardiology (IVP) sales increased 2% yoy (vs. -7%/+7% in 1Q/2Q) as volume growth (double digit in EMEA/APAC) offset price reductions.

Wednesday, February 19, 2014

CapitaMalls Asia - No emerging stress on yields (CIMB)

CapitaMalls Asia -
Current S$1.74
Target S$2.22
No emerging stress on yields

Concerns over a slowdown in China have hurt CMA's share price of late. We think this is overdone given CMA's latest 4Q13 results. Tenant sales growth remains robust, suggesting that rental reversions could positively surprise in 2014. The new malls completed in Singapore are also expected to drive earnings this year. CMA's 4Q13 core EPS was broadly in line at 21% of our full-year estimate (FY13 at 96%) and consensus. We tweak our FY14-15 core EPS model by +1/-5% and trim our target price by raising the discount to its RNAV from 10% to 15% to reflect a more cautious macro outlook in China. We maintain Add, with stronger retail rents in China as potential catalysts.

Suntec REIT: En route to sustainable recovery (OCBC)

Suntec REIT:

En route to sustainable recovery

- Suntec City AEI a success
- Recent acquisition to boost earnings
- Potential risks addressed

Poised for multi-year growth
Suntec REIT has essentially locked in robust growth over the next few years with its strong asset management and execution. First started its Phase 1 rejuvenation works at Suntec City in Jun 2012, Suntec REIT has recently reopened Suntec Singapore and the retail space in 2Q13 with a strong committed occupancy of 99.6%.

Starhill Global REIT: Still among our top picks (OCBC)

Starhill Global REIT:

Still among our top picks

-Strong results from Singapore and Australia
-Loan rates substantially hedged or fixed
-Poised for further growth

Clear growth drivers
We continue to be positive on Starhill Global REIT’s (SGREIT) performance in 2014. SGREIT has recently delivered a strong set of 3Q13 results on the back of strength from its Singapore portfolio and new income stream from Plaza Arcade in Australia.

Singapore REITs: Fundamentally sound, but risks ahead (OCBC)

Singapore REITs:
Fundamentally sound, but risks ahead

-Expecting risks and challenges
-Better positioned for impact
- Remain selective on S-REITs

Expected US stimulus reduction loomed large on prospects
The recent respite in the unit prices of SREITs resulting from the delay in the US Fed tapering was short-lived. After the US Central Bank surprised the market with its decision not to scale back its bond purchase programme on 18 Sep 2013, the FTSE ST REIT Index recovered 3.8% to reach a high of 750.27 on 30 Oct, outperforming the 1.6% growth in STI over the same period. However, in the weeks that follow, the SREITs sector started to lose ground again, as talks on the potential QE reduction (as early as Dec) resurfaced amid stronger-thanexpected US economic data. Looking ahead, we believe mounting risks from an impending reduction in bond purchases will continue to spook interest-rate sensitive stocks such as S-REITs, leading to a potential share overhang or even further downward pressure from here.

Frasers Centrepoint Ltd - Strong all round (CIMB)

Frasers Centrepoint Ltd -
Current S$1.41
Target S$2.06
Strong all round

FCL’s 1Q14 core net profit was in line with expectations at 26% of our FY14 estimate. The strong set of 1Q14 results showed yoy gains in all segments. Overseas development was the key driver and is expected to remain so in FY14, backed by strong sales. Unbooked presales remained robust at S$3bn. Average commercial rents rose and the new hospitality segment began contributing.

We keep our target price (30% discount to RNAV) but adjust our FY14-16 core EPS by +1%/-6% for changes to our launch schedule assumptions. The successful launch of a hospitality REIT could be a re-rating catalyst. Even without the REIT, FCL should be able to maintain its strong operational numbers, with the revitalisation of its property portfolio. Maintain Add.

曾淵滄專欄19.02.14:滙控恒生佳績可期

東亞銀行(023)公佈業績,表現較市場預期佳。前陣子,新加坡的星展銀行公佈業績,其中星展香港純利上升18%,看來香港的本土銀行的2013年利潤應該都很不錯。

因此,昨日我決定買入恒生銀行(011),下周恒生與滙控(005)將公佈業績,滙控業績應該也不錯,不過我手上已有不少,所以沒有打算增持。

恒指昨日表現不錯,美股前晚休假,港股失去來自美國的指標,就只能向北望,昨日滬綜指表現不佳,下跌0.77%,而港股竟然能在A股收市後發力向上,反跌為升,看來東亞的良好業績給市場一個不錯的支持力。

Religare Health Trust - No surprises in 3Q (DBSV)

Religare Health Trust -
STI : 3,029.10
HOLD S$0.77
Price Target : 12-Month S$ 0.82 (Prev S$ 0.81)
No surprises in 3Q

• 3Q14 results as expected; DPU at 1.95 Scts
• Operations remained strong
• 1H15 distributions hedged at SGD/INR53.36
• Maintain HOLD, TP: S$0.82

Highlights
3Q14 results within expectations. 3Q14 DPU was 2.14 Scts, which was in line with our expectations. Revenue improved by 1.3% q-o-q, but was 1.8% below its IPO projections due to a weaker INR. In INR terms, however, revenue was 11% higher than projected. Operating margins improved marginally to 59% in 3Q14 from 58.1% in 2Q14, arising from tighter cost control.

Tuesday, February 18, 2014

CapitaMalls Asia : Rising recurrent income (DBSV)

CapitaMalls Asia Limited:
STI : 3,039.90
BUY S$1.74
Price Target : 12-Month S$ 2.28 (Prev S$ 2.22)
Rising recurrent income

•Results in line, lifted by improved operational performance
•More new completions to raise recurrent income
•Maintain BUY, TP S$2.28

Improvements across the board. CMA posted a 17% rise in 4Q13 PATMI to S$216m. Stripping revals, operating PATMI was S$60.9m, 55% higher y-o-y. This was achieved by better showings across its geographical footprint. For FY13, it recorded PATMI of S$600m, 10% higher y-o-y and an operating PATMI of S$246m, which is within expectations.

SATS - 3QFY14: Below Expectations As Food Solutions Revenue Takes A Hit (UOBKH)

SATS -
Share Price S$3.18
Target Price S$3.08
3QFY14: Below Expectations As Food Solutions Revenue Takes A Hit

Opex remained relatively flat, despite a 1.1% decline in revenue. Operating margin consequently declined 0.9ppt to 9.0%. We lower our FY14 and FY15 net profit estimates by 8.4% and 6.4% respectively. Maintain HOLD. Target price: S$3.08. Entry price: S$2.94.

Q&M Dental Group - Almost a done deal (MKE)

Q&M Dental Group -
Share Price: SGD0.36
Target Price: SGD0.48
Almost a done deal

■ We believe Q&M is likely to be close to completing its acquisition of Aoxin, its largest purchase in China to-date.
■ We include a 21% proforma EPS uplift from Aoxin into our TP, which is raised by 20% to SGD0.48. Maintain BUY.
■ We expect more acquisitions to come that could further re-rate the stock.

Biosensors Int'l -Can it get cheaper than this? (CIMB)

Biosensors Int'l
Current S$0.87
Target S$1.19
Can it get cheaper than this?

Biosensors posted results that were largely in line with our expectations. Its 3QFY14 core EPS made up 23% of our full-year forecast, while its 9M number was 72% of our FY14. We keep our below-consensus estimates unchanged. Likewise, our SOP-based target price remains intact. We reiterate our contrarian Add rating, which is premised on the instant success of product launches, regulatory approvals, and M&A accretion.

Courts Asia -Key Takeaways From Results Briefing (UOBKH)

Courts Asia
Share Price S$0.57
Target Price S$0.62
Key Takeaways From Results Briefing

INVESTMENT HIGHLIGHTS
• Malaysian sales higher on new store openings but organic growth still weak. In 3QFY14, Malaysia posted a 21% yoy increase in sales but we note this was largely attributable to its opening of one megastore and three superstores. Samestore sales (SSS) growth for the quarter was 2.8% yoy while sales per sf was flat at RM112. For 9MFY14, Malaysia sales were up 2.1% yoy. Despite management’s plan to continue with its aggressive expansion strategy, we remain cautious due to expected lacklustre domestic consumption as Malaysians brace for the rising cost of living from various subsidy rationalisation measures. We are also concerned about cannibalisation effects for stores located within close proximity of each other.

Frasers Centrepoint -Investor meeting feedback (CIMB)

Frasers Centrepoint Ltd
Current S$1.41
Target S$2.06
Investor meeting feedback

We hosted a series of investor meetings for FCL post its 1Q14 results. Expectedly, the meetings focused on strategy, capital allocation and potential corporate actions rather than on numbers. The burning question on the minds of investors is when or whether its Thai shareholders will place out shares to increase free float. This remains an uncertainty and out of management’s control. However, FCL plans to continue to execute in Singapore, go deeper into its core markets in Australia and China and improve earnings quality. We keep our estimates and target price (30% RNAV discount) and Add rating.

曾淵滄專欄18.02.14:騰訊併購例升有因

我曾乘搭小郵輪度假,今年新春遊加勒比海,乘搭的是大郵輪,比較之下,我建議大家以後乘郵輪度假,越大越好。

郵輪大,載客多,一次出海,船公司的收益以億港元計,因此有足夠的經濟規模效應,可以為乘客提供更好的服務。船大,即高而且闊,一般的海浪在這個龐然大物前就是小浪花,船非常穩定,使人完完全全不感覺得在船上,絕對沒有暈船浪之事。

同時,船上提供的表演節目都是國際水平的,正因為船穩定,表演節目也包括超高難度的跳水表演、空中飛人、空中雜技,否則只要船一搖晃,這些需要高度準確的表演就非常危險。

Silverlake Axis - Key Takeaways From Results Briefing (UOKH)

Silverlake Axis -
Share Price S$0.90
Target Price S$0.91
Key Takeaways From Results Briefing

Our view on SAL is unchanged after we met with management. While fundamentals remain solid, we think the stock’s outperformance now places it as being fairly valued. Near-term potential catalysts will be new contract announcements, higherthan- expected contributions from Cyber Village and Merimen, and earningsaccretive M&As.

Maintain HOLD. Target price: S$0.91. Entry price: S$0.80.

Monday, February 17, 2014

CapitaMalls Asia - China delivers, positive tone in 2014 (GS)

CapitaMalls Asia -
Price (S$) 1.74
12 month price target (S$) 2.52
In line with expectations: China delivers, positive tone in 2014

What surprised us
CMA reported operating net profit of S$61mn in 4Q13 (-6% qoq, +55% yoy) and S$246mn in 2013, in line at 97% of GSe FY13. Revaluations, a key earnings driver, were S$329mn in 2013, 17% above GSe of S$280mn; 2H13 revaluations of S$150mn were driven by NPI growth, no compression in cap rate.

Cordlife Group - Plenty to look forward to (MKE)

Cordlife Group -
Share Price: SGD1.19
Target Price: SGD1.42
Plenty to look forward to

-1HFY6/14 core results within expectations, accounting for 40% of our full-year forecast.
-Stronger traction expected in 2HFY6/14 as new products are rolled out across its newly expanded Asian platform.
-Maintain BUY with TP of SGD1.42 based on SOTP.

1HFY6/14 in line
Cordlife’s 2QFY6/14 revenue grew 31% YoY to SGD12.1m while reported earnings fell 25% YoY to SGD4.2m. Stripping out exceptional items, core earnings of SGD2.1m were in line at 21% of our full-year forecast (1Q: 19%). 1H core earnings accounted for 40% of our full-year forecast, in line with historical trends, and fell 13% YoY to SGD3.9m due to the temporary disruptions to businesses at its newly-acquired entity in Indonesia and in the Philippines.

Biosensors International: Slow growth, higher opex (DBSV)

Biosensors International:
Slow growth, higher opex
HOLD; S$0.87;
Price Target : 12-Month S$ 0.90 (Prev S$ 0.94)

•3Q14 below expectations as stent sales and opex disappoint
•Slower growth, lower margins playing out
•Cut FY15F/FY16F earnings by 22%/27%
•Maintain HOLD and lower TP to S$0.90

3Q14 revenue and earnings disappoint.  BIG registered earnings of US$11m (-56% y-o-y) for 3Q14 on revenue of US$82.5m (+1% y-o-y).  Both revenue and opex underperformed our estimates.  9M14 net profit accounts for only 67% of our full year forecast.

Del Monte Pacific- Approved! (CIMB)

Del Monte Pacific
Current S$0.61
Target S$1.14
Approved!

DMPL’s proposed acquisition of the Consumer Food Business of Del Monte Corporation (DMF) was approved by shareholders. The deal is expected to close on 18 Feb 14. Execution and gearing risks are by now well documented. Once the last of DMPL’s unfavourable contract terminates, investors may baulk at paying double-digit P/Es for this stock. However, the success of this bold move to capture growth opportunities, both geographically and via new product categories, could justify such valuations. Good cashflow generation at DMF buys management time to address its capital structure. Meanwhile, the stage is set for management to prove that it can make this acquisition work. Maintain Add call and target price – still based on 17.5x CY15 P/E (6-year average).

SATS - Muted earnings (MKE)

SATS -
Share Price: SGD3.18
Target Price: SGD3.47
Muted earnings

-Net income fell 8.7% YoY to SGD42.9m on rising labour costs.
-Cut FY3/14E-16E earnings forecasts by 11-16% and expect lower DPS to reflect the weaker profits.
-Remains a key beneficiary of structurally higher air traffic growth in Singapore. Maintain BUY with lower TP of SGD3.47.

 Disappointing numbers
SATS reported a muted set of numbers for 3QFY3/14, with net income declining by 8.7% YoY to SGD42.9m on a 1.1% YoY contraction in revenue to SGD465.5m.

曾淵滄專欄17.05.14:炒落後股也需條件

美國新任聯儲局主席耶倫,於美國國會的談話,推動美股連日回升,至上周末,道指已回升至16154點,很接近歷史高位。

與此同時A股也從2020的水平回升至2100之上,港股應該仍有炒落後的條件。

炒落後,不是所有股份在過去一個月都曾經出現調整,又或下跌過的股都值得炒,那些在過去三個月只靠炒「貨源歸邊」的股沒有炒落後的條件,理由是「貨源歸邊」概念股的股價之所以急跌,表示貨源已不再歸邊,莊家已完成了散貨的行動,「貨源歸邊」已變成「貨源歸散戶」。散戶接了貨,誰來推動股價?

Hutchison Port Holdings Trust: Year to forget; expect better (DBSV)

Hutchison Port Holdings Trust:
US$0.66;
Price Target : 12-Month US$ 0.76 (Prev US$ 0.80)
Year to forget; expect better  

•4Q13 operating results below, but 2H13 DPU of 22.3HKcts better than expected
•Signs of improvement in US/ EU trade flows; we look for 3-4% volume growth in FY14 in the Trust’s ports
•Management will look to at least maintain DPU in FY14  
•Maintain BUY with lower TP of US$0.76

Sunday, February 16, 2014

Singapore home prices may drop 10-15%, says DBS CEO


Sri Trang -Fate Of The Dragon (UOBKH)

Sri Trang Agro-Industry
Share Price Bt12.30
Target Price Bt16.00
Fate Of The Dragon

We expect quarterly net profit to peak in 4Q13, up 46.6% qoq to Bt318.0m, and to increase 24.9% yoy to Bt1.7b in 2013. Although rubber prices have dropped sharply due to the high stockpiles, tightened credit policy and shadow banking effect in China, we think all negative factors have been reflected in rubber prices. Maintain BUY with a new target price of Bt16.00.

REDtone International -2QFY14 Results (NRA)

REDtone International Berhad
Target Price: RM 0.70
Current Price : RM 0.625

1. 2QFY14 Results Highlight
 In 2QFY14, while turnover only increased by 14.1% to RM30.45m. Both PBT and net profit jumped by 67.6% and 52.1% each to RM7.06m and RM6.04m.

 The revenue growth was underpinned by the data and broadband services which grew substantially by 70% to RM17.11m in 2QFY14. This more than sufficiently offset the 10% decline in its voice business.

 The growth trend of its data division was driven by the infrastructure sharing and alliance with Maxis and TM’s HSBB services as well as contribution from the MCMC’s Time 3 project.

Gadang-Strong momentum in construction division (JF)

Gadang Holdings Berhad
Share Price RM1.15
Target Price RM1.43
Strong momentum in construction division

Result
Gadang Holdings registered RM141m and RM8.3m of revenue and net profit respectively in its 2QFY2014. The net earnings was 16.9% higher qoq but 32% lower yoy as the Group had booked in RM11.4m of disposal gain in the 2QFY2013 arising from the sale of a land in Penang.

Anticipating stronger 2HFY2014 - The result lifted 6MFY2014 net profit to RM15.4m, up 4.1% yoy. However, net profit would have grown significantly 353% if we strip off the disposal gain of RM11.4m recorded in last year. The results is deem within our expectation as we expect higher earnings to kick in by the 2HFY2014 to match our full year estimate, as construction progresses in faster pace.

Malaysian Airline System - Desperate to stay relevant (CIMB)

Malaysian Airline System
Current RM0.31
Target RM0.17
Desperate to stay relevant

MAS remains committed to lifting its aircraft utilisation and load factor despite the resulting plunge in yields, which is dragging the carrier deeper into the red. It is not taking its foot off the pedal in order to stay relevant, and shareholders will be the ones bearing the brunt.

We maintain our Reduce call and our target price, which is based on 1x CY14 P/BV. Share price de-rating catalysts include a persistent weak yield environment that will keep MAS in the red.

Pacific Basin Shipping -The persevering workhorse (CIMB)

Pacific Basin Shipping
Current HK$5.17
Target HK$6.55
The persevering workhorse

The stock continues to trade at an undeserved discount to its underlying fleet value, despite a strong balance sheet and improving prospects. Investors cannot go wrong with a company that has never made a loss on its core bulk shipping business.

We retain our Add call, earnings forecasts and target price, still based on SOP valuation. Re-rating catalysts are expected from rising bulk ship values and a gradual recovery in bulk freight rates.
Warren E. Buffett(沃伦•巴菲特)
Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful
别人贪婪时我恐惧, 别人恐惧时我贪婪
投资只需学好两门课: 一,是如何给企业估值,二,是如何看待股市波动
吉姆·罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)
“错过时机”胜于“搞错对象”:不会全军覆没!”
做自己熟悉的事,等到发现大好机会才投钱下去

乔治·索罗斯(George Soros)

“犯错误并没有什么好羞耻的,只有知错不改才是耻辱。”

如果操作过量,即使对市场判断正确,仍会一败涂地。

李驰(中国巴菲特)
高估期间, 卖对, 不卖也对, 买是错的。
低估期间, 买对, 不买也是对, 卖是错的。

Tan Teng Boo


There’s no such thing as defensive stocks.Every stock can be defensive depending on what price you pay for it and what value you get,
冷眼(冯时能)投资概念
“买股票就是买公司的股份,买股份就是与陌生人合股做生意”。
合股做生意,则公司股份的业绩高于一切,而股票的价值决定于盈利。
价值是本,价格是末,故公司比股市重要百倍。
曹仁超-香港股神/港股明灯
1.有智慧,不如趁势
2.止损不止盈
成功者所以成功,是因为不怕失败!失败者所以失败,是失败后不再尝试!
曾淵滄-散户明灯
每逢灾难就是机会,而是在灾难发生时贱价买股票,然后放在一边,耐性地等灾难结束
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