Saturday, February 8, 2014

曾淵滄博士-股市资讯专栏 07.02.14 - 一年之计在于春,宜谨慎外加耐心

一年之计在于春,宜谨慎外加耐心
文: 曾渊沧博士 2014年02月07日 曾渊沧博士专栏
对许多喜欢赌博或者炒股票的人而言,他们也许会特别喜欢马年,因为他们会期望可以在马年马上发财。若真希望马上发财,我祝你心想事成,祝你好运。我不喜欢赌博,但喜欢投资。两者都是金钱游戏,都是希望通过这些游戏增加财富。不过,分别还是很大。赌博的确有可能马上发财,但是机会率很低。投资不大可能马上发财,而是利用长期的投资成果来累积财富。当然,极少数人可能利用内幕消息或操控炒作股价而马上发财。不过这肯定不是正当的行为。

投资理财是人生的一部份,只是在马年马上发财还不够。所以,中国人过农历年,不论是马年、蛇年,年年都会说恭喜发财,也就是说希望年年发财,年年将自己的财富累积起来。投资发财考验的是耐性。与时间长跑的耐性,如果你在三、四十年前,或50年前买入一些房地产,今日不可能亏本。可惜,在股票投资的市场,很少人能真正赚到大钱,原因就是多数人没有耐性长期持有股票。不过,不论股价如何急升,也只是发小财,真要发大财,一定要很有耐性地当个长期投资者,股神芭菲特的投资秘诀也是如此。

海事造船(Otto Marine):转机出现,乘势而上

海事造船:转机出现,乘势而上
文: 吴灵安 , 李伊琳 (译:杨佳文) 2014年02月07日 企业摘要
海事造船(Otto Marine)在FY13的首9个月转亏为盈,全年的表现料将回升,公司也在这段期间委任了新总裁,以为油气业在2014年的蓬勃发展做好准备。《股市资讯》到访了公司的办事处,与其新总裁Garrick Stanley进行了独家专访。

海事造船在过去两年面对逆境,所遇到的问题包括船只使用率和船只租金减低。但公司并没有受负面因素影响,而是专注于在其船厂完成大型锚作拖引船及深海钻井船的建造。

另外,公司关闭了地球物理业务部门,以增强其财力,同时调整其策略,专注于发展核心业务。公司目前拥有一座位于印尼巴淡岛的船厂,提供造船、制造、维修服务,同时设有一家船只管理子公司。

Singapore viewed as defensive (CIMB)

We recently discussed our Singapore top picks with investors in Asia and Europe. On markets, we believe that after a rally has lasted almost five years, performance must come from stocks that have a clear, growth story. Our higher conviction stories are in the non-Index space. Investors are generally Overweight on Singapore, due to the defensiveness of its stocks, but for performance, they agreed that individual stock names matter more than the macro picture. Our end-2014 FSSTI target of 3,600, based on 14.4x CY15 P/E, remains unchanged. Our large-cap picks are DBS, FR, GLP, KEP and WIL. DELM, EZI, GPACK, MIDAS, OEL, SARIN and SILV are the conviction names.
 
What Happened
We spent part of Dec and most of Jan marketing to investors in Asia and Europe. We were Overweight on banks, commodities and capital goods and also emphasised on our non-index stock picks.  

Gamuda - Chugging On (MKE)

Gamuda - Chugging On
Share Price: MYR4.34
Target Price: MYR5.30

Gamuda-MMC is confident of clinching the KVMRT 2 PDP role.
Potential invocation of S114WSIAcould lead to short term weakness in share price.
Maintain BUY with an unchanged TP of MYR5.30.

What’s New
Gamuda remains confident ofclinchingthe PDP role for the KVMRT 2despite whispers on the contrary.However, the Gemas-JohorBarudouble track railconstruction award has been further delayed to 2015from late-2014. Meanwhile, property sales remain robust especially in Horizon Hills. As for itswater assetssale,potentialinvocation of S114WSIAhasraisedconcernon the offer value.Federal government’s decision is expected soon.

MISC -The only way is up (CIMB)

MISC Bhd
Current RM5.60
Target RM7.25
The only way is up

Crude tanker rates did spectacularly well this month as rates spiked 130-510% from their recent lows. Although rates are bound to correct once the temporary supply tightness subsides, the crude and chemical tanker markets now appear to be on a fundamental uptrend.

We increase our target price after removing the 30% discount we had earlier pegged on MISC's SOP due to brighter prospects for its petroleum and chemical segments. We think that all the bad news is already in the price, and structural as well as cyclical improvements will slowly materialise. Hence, we upgrade our call from Reduce to Add, with stronger offshore profits and diminishing liquid bulk losses serving as the key catalysts.

Sa Sa -Rumours stop at a wiseman (DBSV)

Sa Sa (178 HK)
BUY; HK$6.97
12 month Price Target: HK$9.26
Rumours stop at a wiseman

• Next Magazine accuses Sa Sa of deliberately selling expired products in its stores.
• Management’s swift actions to clarify the incident should help preserving its brand image and transparency to a great extent.
• Trading at 17.1x 12-mth rolling PE and 25% discount to our TP of HK$9.26, we see good opportunity to accumulate the counter. Reiterate BUY

Friday, February 7, 2014

CapitaRetail China Trust: 4Q13 results in line (OCBC)

CapitaRetail China Trust:
Fair value S$1.54
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.096
versus: Current price S$1.310
4Q13 results in line

CRCT reported 4Q13 results that were in line with ours and the street’s expectations. Gross revenue climbed 8.9% YoY to S$41.2m, driven by revenue growth from CapitaMall Xizhimen, CapitaMall Wangjing and CapitaMall Saihan. Net property income rose 6.6% to S$25.8m. Distributable income grew 5.6% to S$17.7m. DPU, however, fell 4.3% to 2.20 S cents due to a private placement in Nov 2012. Excluding CapitaMall Minzhongleyuan, which has been closed for asset enhancement since Jul 2013, CRCT’s 4Q13 gross revenue and NPI grew by 11.2% and 9.5% respectively in RMB terms. Using a higher cost of equity (9.5% versus 8.9% previously), we lower our FV to S$1.54 from S$1.64 and maintain a BUY rating on CRCT.

CapitaCommercial Trust: Poised to benefit from CBD office recovery (OCBC)

CapitaCommercial Trust:
Fair value S$1.61
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.08
versus: Current price S$1.45
Poised to benefit from CBD office recovery

4Q13 distributable income increased 3.3% YoY to S$60.2m. This cumulates to a distributable income of S$234.2m for FY13, which is up 2.5% YoY mainly due to higher revenue contributions across portfolio properties and a full-year contribution from Twenty Anson. FY13 distributable income constitutes 102.1% of our annual forecast and we deem this this performance to be within expectations. The group reported 4Q13 DPU at 2.09 S-cents, adding up to a total FY13 DPU of 8.14 S-cents – a 5.6% distribution yield based on the traded price of S$1.45 per unit. We continue to like CCT for its exposure to the relatively attractive CBD sub-market. With its low gearing of 29.3% and debt headroom of S$1.2b (to 40% gearing), there is significant dry powder for accretive acquisitions. Maintain BUY with an unchanged fair value estimate of S$1.61.

Suntec REIT: Starting to shine brightly (OCBC)

Suntec REIT:
Fair value S$1.90
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.101
versus: Current price S$1.59
Starting to shine brightly

Suntec REIT’s 4Q13 results exceeded both market and our expectations. Going forward, we understand that management will continue to focus on forward renewal of its office leases. With only 12.5% of its office leases due to expire in 2014, we believe the office segment will remain robust. Suntec REIT also updated that Phase 2 AEI is on track for completion in 1Q14, and that pre-commitment for the retail space has reached 97.0%, up from 83.7% in 3Q.

Starhill Global REIT - Risk on the rise (CIMB)

Starhill Global REIT
Current S$0.76
Target S$0.80
Risk on the rise

▊ SGREIT's FY13 results were in line, with DPU coming in at 99% of our full-year estimate. During the year, revenue grew by 7.9% yoy, while NPI grew by 6.3% yoy - mainly attributed to the stronger contributions from its Singapore and Australia properties. However, in the face of a rising interest rate environment coupled with currency fluctuations, we increase the risk-free rate for SGREIT to 4.0% and as a result, our DDM-based target price (discount rate: 8.4%) is lower at S$0.80. Our Hold rating is maintained.

曾淵滄專欄07.02.14:多少錢才夠退休?

有人間:「你需要多少錢才夠退休?」這句話是許多保險公司用於廣告宣傳上的用語。

實際上,這是不難計算的課題,只是,多數人不願面對將來,不願好好地算一算,你若不懂得計算,保險從業員一定樂於幫你計算。我相信,多數人在計算後,會感到自己低估了退休後所需的金錢。

為甚麼會低估?相信許多人無法想像到,自己退休後還有20至30年的日子要過,這並不是一段短時間。

Fortune REIT: 4Q13 solid with Kingswood (OCBC)

Fortune REIT:
Fair value HK$6.28
add: 12m dividend forecast HK$0.388
versus: Current price HK$5.880
4Q13 solid with Kingswood

FRT reported 4Q13 results that were in line with ours and the street's expectations. Revenue rose 34.6% YoY to HK$392.6m chiefly due to contribution from Fortune Kingswood from Oct 2013, as well as higher occupancy rates and strong rental growth across the portfolio. Net property income was up 33.0% at HK$275.2m. Income available for distribution climbed 27.8% YoY to HK$182.1m. DPU increased by 16.1% to 9.72 HK cents because of the placement units (representing an increase of 8.4% over the number of prior units) issued on 6 Aug 2013. Raising the cost of equity to 8.5% from 7.9%, we lower our FV on FRT to HK$6.28 from HK$7.01. We maintain our BUY rating on FRT.

Thursday, February 6, 2014

Starhill Global REIT: Consistent performer (OCBC)

Starhill Global REIT:
Fair value S$0.90
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.051
versus: Current price S$0.76
Consistent performer

Starhill Global REIT (SGREIT) reported an 8.8% YoY growth in its 4Q13 DPU to 1.23 S cents, coming in within our expectations. For the quarter, Singapore portfolio continued to deliver good performance, thereby increasing its percentage revenue contribution to 65.5% from 63.0% in 4Q12. Notably, Ngee Ann City retail NPI gained 16.6% YoY amid 6.7% rental uplift from Toshin master lease renewal in 2Q. In addition, SGREIT saw a S$137.5m revaluation gain in its portfolio. As a result, gearing ratio improved by 1.6ppt QoQ to 29.0%, while book value rose by 7.3% QoQ to S$0.92. This implies a 0.82x P/B, the lowest within the local retail space. We maintain BUY on SGREIT, but revise our fair value to S$0.90 from S$0.95 to reflect higher risk-free rate and risk premium assumptions.

Soilbuild REIT: Strong showing in 4Q13 (OCBC)

Soilbuild REIT:
Fair value S$0.85
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.059
versus: Current price S$0.76
Strong showing in 4Q13

Soilbuild Business Space REIT’s (Soilbuild REIT) 4Q13 DPU tallied 1.51 S cents, slightly above our DPU projection. We note that the portfolio assets continued to exhibit resilience, thanks to its continued focus on lease management and quality assets. In addition, positive rental reversions of 7.9% were recorded upon lease renewals. Looking ahead, we understand that management will focus on early renewal negotiations for its 2014 lease expiries to ensure that retention rate remains high. As only ~17% of the portfolio NLA is up for renewal in this year, we expect Soilbuild REIT’s operational performance to remain stable. We maintain BUY on Soilbuild REIT with a higher fair value of S$0.85 (S$0.82 previously) after incorporating the better-than-expected results into our forecasts.

Breadtalk Group - Why this bread won’t talk

Breadtalk Group -
Share Price: SGD0.94
Target Price: SGD1.40
Why this bread won’t talk

■ Initiate BUY on this under-researched company with a TP of SGD1.40, implying 50% upside. BreadTalk is by far the most successful Singapore F&B company, boasting a solid regional presence for its homemade brands via more than 800 outlets across 15 countries. Its target for 2014 is to raise store count to 1,000.

■ Operational statistics are healthy with EBITDA growing rapidly. This should allay fears on BreadTalk’s lacklustre profit growth, hitherto blamed on poor management or a flawed business model though our analysis shows it is a matter of accounting. Going forward, higher-margin businesses should also help lift earnings.

Mapletree Greater China Commercial Trust - Beat prospectus forecasts (DBSV)

Mapletree Greater China Commercial Trust,
STI : 3,075.99
BUY S$0.81
Price Target : 12-Month S$ 0.97
Beat prospectus forecasts

•3QFY14 profit ahead on strong rental growth
•Focus on organic growth; minimising forex impact by hedging income
•Upgrade to BUY with S$0.97 TP

Beat prospectus forecast. MAGIC booked S$65.7m revenue in Q3, 10% better than forecast, while NPI was ahead by 13% at S$53.8m and distribution income by 17% at S$40.6m. 9M FY14 profit is 78% of our full year estimate. The better-than-projected results were driven by higher operating income, cost savings, and lower interest expense. Distribution income translated into 1.52Scts DPU or 7.5% annualised yield.

曾淵滄專欄 26.02.14:炒潮流股宜用閒錢

我曾在《蘋果日報》的專欄說,於TOM集團(2383)宣佈與中郵合作之後高價追入TOM,之後有數位其他傳媒記者打電話來追問,我的目標價是多少。我告訴他們,我買股票從不設目標價,因為不知道如何設目標價,大行報告或個別股評人都經常為他們推介的股份設目標價,我也不知道他們是如何計算出目標價。

設目標價的目的是甚麼?難道到了目標價就馬上沽出套現?如果是這樣,我就不可能買中升值多倍的股,因為我絕對沒有這種遠見,把目標價定於現價的許多倍。

Suntec REIT - Suntec continues to deliver (MKE)

Suntec REIT -
Share Price: SGD1.59
Target Price: SGD1.75
Suntec continues to deliver

-FY13 results in line with our and market expectations. Highest quarterly DPU since 4Q09.
-FY13 DPU of 9.328 SGD cts includes a 0.839 SGD cts top-up (total SGD19m) from the sales -proceeds of CHIJMES for capital distribution.
-Pre-commitments for Phase 2 leases for Suntec City AEI hit 97% and opens in early 2Q14. Phase 3 works will start next month.

Results in line with expectations
Following the massive SGD410m AEI on Suntec City, Suntec’s FY13 revenue contracted by a modest 10.6% YoY to SGD234m, forming 96.5% of our and 98% of consensus estimates. Full-year DPU declined 1.7% YoY to 9.328 SGD cts, constituting 101% of our and 102.5% of consensus forecasts. The amount included a top-up of 0.839 SGD cts (total SGD19m) from the sales proceeds of CHIJMES for capital distribution. Stripping out the top-up, FY13 DPU would have been 8.489 SGD cts (-10.5% YoY). Aggregate leverage inched up to 39.1% from 38.6% last quarter following new borrowings. Net financing costs for FY13 averaged 2.5% with an average term of 2.44 years.

AEI making good progress
Committed occupancy for Phase 1 leases hit 99.6% with average passing rent of SGD13.09 psf per month. Suntec also said that 97% of Phase 2 NLA has been pre-committed (previous quarter: 83.7%). Among the brands that have signed up are Marche, McDonald’s, Andersen and Etude House. Phase 2 works will complete in April while Phase 3 AEI will commence next month. Our investment thesis on Suntec remains intact. In this growth-limited environment, Suntec is one of the very few S-REITs that has a DPU CAGR of 4.2% from 2013-2016 (13.3% over three years), following the rental reversions from the major overhaul at Suntec City. Maintain BUY with an unchanged DDM-derived TP of SGD1.75 (discount rate of 8%).


Source/Extract/Excerpts/来源/转贴/摘录: MKE-Research,
Publish date: 24/01/14

Wednesday, February 5, 2014

Thai Beverage - Spirited value (SCB)

Thai Beverage -
PRICE as of 23 Jan 2014 SGD 0.56
PRICE TARGET SGD 0.72
Spirited value

■ We consider Thai Beverage (Thai Bev) undervalued in light of two major deals in the global beverage sector.

■ We believe the listing of FCL, F&N’s property arm, has increased the prospects of a restructuring of Thai Bev and F&N.

First Resources - Favorable risk-reward (JPM)

First Resources -
Price: S$2.00
Price Target: S$2.60
Favorable risk-reward, stay OW

The recent share price correction has provided potential re-entry point for First Resources as risk-reward improves. Downside risk to earnings is also among the lowest versus its peers. We reiterate OW.

■ Strong production recovery to drive outperformance:
We believe First Resources is likely to remain one of the outperformers among regional plantation peers this year. The company’s just-released Dec-2013 production numbers saw a strong pick-up in CPO production with 4Q13 up 19% Y/Y, ending FY13 with 12% Y/Y growth. With c.11,000ha (+9%) of estates expected to mature in 2014, and combined with recovery from tree stress, we expect 15-20% production growth this year for First Resources.

Capitacommercial Trust - Stable with slow growth (CIMB)

Capitacommercial Trust
Current S$1.45
Target S$1.51
Stable with slow growth

▊ CCT posted flattish 4Q13 results, with revenue and DPU growing at 1.5% and 2.0% yoy respectively. We deem the full-year results largely in line as they are only 2% and 1% short respectively of our FY13 revenue and DPU estimates. The next phase of growth is expected to be driven by the upcoming CapitaGreen that is scheduled for completion in 4Q14. We maintain our Hold rating, but trim our FY14-15 EPS for the slower commitment rates, resulting in a lower target price of S$1.51

Tiger Airways - No Christmas presents this year (CIMB)

Tiger Airways
Current S$0.49
Target S$0.33
No Christmas presents this year

Tiger Airways’ results were below expectations, with 9MFY14 core net loss of S$85.5m being more than our previous full-year loss forecast of S$78.7m, due to weaker-than-expected yields in Singapore. We maintain our Reduce call but raise our loss forecasts and consequently cut our target price, which is still based on 1x CY14 P/BV. De-rating catalysts include continued overcapacity in Singapore, coupled with tough Australian and Indonesian markets.

曾淵滄專欄 05.02.14:大鱷狙擊一招搞掂

美國搞量化寬鬆、印鈔票,新興工業國擔心大量美元流入,會引發通貨膨脹;現在,美國搞退市,鈔票少印了,將來可能不印了,新興工業國又擔心大量美元流走,會引發股災,爆發貨幣貶值,引發投資萎縮。

真的是狂印鈔票不受歡迎,少印鈔票就引起恐慌,將來若不印鈔票,恐怕會再爆發金融風暴,今日的美國,依然主宰着全世界的經濟與金融,儘管這個世界第一強國已從高峯往下滑,但是威力猶在。

Suntec REIT: A year of reckoning (DBSV)

Suntec REIT:
STI : 3,100.24
BUY S$1.595
Price Target : 12-Month S$ 1.78 (Prev S$ 1.80)
A year of reckoning

•4Q13 DPU increased by 10% y-o-y to 2.6Scts
•Phase 2 of Suntec Mall to open by 2Q14; earnings to continue to improve sequentially
•Maintain BUY, TP revised to S$1.78

Highlights
4Q13 revenues and NPI up due to contribution from Phase 1 at Suntec Mall. 4Q13 revenue and NPI grew 30% and 63% to S$71.6m and S$49.8m, respectively, led by contribution from completed Phase 1 refurbishment of Suntec Mall. There was also higher revenue from Suntec Office and stable performance at other properties (Park Mall, stakes in ORQ and MBFC). Distributable income grew 11% to S$58m, comprising S$54m distribution income from operations and additional S$4m of capital distributions, translating into 2.56Scts DPU (+10% y-o-y).

Tuesday, February 4, 2014

歷届馬年運勢差‧投資慎防馬有失蹄

歷届馬年運勢差‧投資慎防馬有失蹄

歷届馬年運勢差‧投資慎防馬有失蹄
Created 02/04/2014 - 16:48
還記得剛踏入蛇年時,市場人士都不太看好蛇年局勢,認為蛇年不利,全球局勢不明朗。然而,蛇年卻發揮了本色,一路攀升,儘管遇上美國收緊量化寬鬆政策,依然面不改色,突破困局。

如今,“送蛇迎馬”來到馬年,股市的表現能否再下一城,展現萬馬奔騰的浩瀚情景,並大派紅包股,格外值得期待。

Suntec REIT - A display of growth potential (CIMB)

Suntec REIT
Current S$1.59
Target S$1.96
A display of growth potential

SUN ended FY13 on a high note, with 4Q13 revenue and net property income (NPI) posting a +30.2% yoy and +10.2% yoy jump, respectively. FY13 DPU was 3% above our forecast. The strong growth in earnings was mainly attributed to the opening of Phase 1 of Suntec City following the completion of AEI works. We maintain an Add rating with an unchanged DDM-based (discount rate: 8.0%) target price of S$1.96 on the back of further income contribution from the near-to-completion Phase 2 of Suntec mall in 1Q14.

Soilbuild Business Space REIT: Beating forecasts yet again (DBSV)

Soilbuild Business Space REIT:
STI : 3,100.24
BUY S$0.765
Price Target : 12-Month S$ 0.87
Beating forecasts yet again

•4Q13 DPU of 1.5Scts beats forecast by 3.4%
•Growth momentum to continue into 2014
•Maintain BUY, TP S$0.87

Highlights
4Q13 exceeds IPO forecast. Soilbuild Business Space REIT’s (“SBREIT”) first full-quarter results was ahead of its prospectus forecast, but was in line with our expectations. Gross revenue and NPI were 0.9% and 2.1% higher at S$16.3m and S$13.7m respectively. The stronger performance was attributable to positive reversions on renewals achieved last quarter, as well as property expenses and interest cost savings. Portfolio occupancy increased to 99.9%, supported by achieved rental reversions of 7.8%. This translated into a distributable income of S$12m (+3.5% vs forecasts) and DPU of 1.51Scts (+3.4%).

Ascendas India Trust: Aviator takes off (DBSV)

Ascendas India Trust:
STI : 3,100.24
HOLD S$0.71
Price Target : 12-Month S$ 0.73
Aviator takes off

•Underlying operations continue to strengthen
•Aviator to boost distributions; low gearing opens opportunities to inorganic growth
•Maintain HOLD, TP S$0.73

Highlights
Underlying operations continue to strengthen. In INR terms, Ascendas India Trust’s (a-itrust) underlying operational performance continues to improve with total property income increasing 3% to INR1.44bn. This was due to higher utilities recovery, supported by stable portfolio occupancy rates of c.97%. Portfolio retention rates remain high at c.93%.

Frasers Commercial Trust: Cranking up further growth (OCBC)

Frasers Commercial Trust:
Fair value S$1.45
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.090
versus: Current price S$1.27
Cranking up further growth

Frasers Commercial Trust’s (FCOT) 1QFY14 DPU of 2.05 S cents (+29.7% YoY) was within our expectations. China Square Central and 55 Market Street were the key performers for 1Q, raking up NPI growth of 15.4% and 9.6% respectively on the back of higher secured rental and occupancy rates. Domestic leasing demand also remained relatively buoyant in our view, as positive rental reversions ranging from 10.7% to 20.7% were achieved during the quarter. Looking ahead, management continues to maintain its positive tone, highlighting that its under-rented portfolio assets and current occupancy rate provide room for further income growth. At Alexandra Technopark, we note that FCOT is currently receiving S$1.80 psf pm net rent for the master lease (vs. S$3.40 gross rent for underlying leases). Given that the master lease makes up a significant 21.7% of FCOT’s rental income, we are thus positive on its performance in FY14. Maintain BUY with unchanged fair value of S$1.45 on FCOT.

曾淵滄專欄 04.02.14:雙馬競賽點石成金

馬年最精采的潮流股,應該是「雙馬競賽」股,雙馬者,馬化騰與馬雲,過去兩位姓馬的人是河水不犯井水,現在則是你侵入我的地盤,我也侵入你的地盤。

在入侵的過程中,一些二三線股因此而受益,被雙馬中之一馬看中,股價就飛升。

炒高批股締雙贏
相信雙馬也會很喜歡這樣的遊戲,他們只要一入股,股價急升,那不是點石成金嗎?自己的身家上漲,將來可以利用新入股的企業,擴展自己的地盤,股價炒上後又可以高價配股,用他人的錢來擴展業務,馬上一箭雙鵰。

CapitaMall Trust: Possibly another year of AEI (OCBC)

CapitaMall Trust:
Fair value S$2.20
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.113
versus: Current price S$1.89

Possibly another year of AEI

CapitaMall Trust (CMT) yesterday reported 4Q13 DPU of 10.27 S cents (+8.6%, in line with our expectations. As at 31 Dec 2013, portfolio occupancy remained relatively stable at 98.5%. For the year, tenant sales psf increased by 2.5%, while shopper traffic grew 3.1%. Going forward, we believe shopper traffic may improve further at several of CMT’s malls, which should sustain the leasing demand currently seen in its portfolio. We also understand that CMT will be embarking on AEI for Tampines Mall and Phase 2 of Bugis Junction in 1Q14. On 3 Jan, CMT has granted options to a consortium to purchase Westgate Tower for S$579.4m. If the sale materializes, the progressive payments made for the office building will provide CMT with additional resources for its growth plans. We maintain BUY on CMT but revise our fair value from S$2.35 to S$2.20 to reflect higher cost of equity assumptions.

Monday, February 3, 2014

Suntec REIT - A display of growth potential (CIMB)

Suntec REIT  
Current S$1.59
Target S$1.96
A display of growth potential

▊ SUN ended FY13 on a high note, with 4Q13 revenue and net property income (NPI) posting a +30.2% yoy and +10.2% yoy jump, respectively. FY13 DPU was 3% above our forecast. The strong growth in earnings was mainly attributed to the opening of Phase 1 of Suntec City following the completion of AEI works. We maintain an Add rating with an unchanged DDM-based (discount rate: 8.0%) target price of S$1.96 on the back of further income contribution from the near-to-completion Phase 2 of Suntec mall in 1Q14.

Tiger Airways - No Christmas presents this year (CIMB)

Tiger Airways
Current S$0.49
Target S$0.33
No Christmas presents this year

▊ Tiger Airways’ results were below expectations, with 9MFY14 core net loss of S$85.5m being more than our previous full-year loss forecast of S$78.7m, due to weaker-than-expected yields in Singapore. We maintain our Reduce call but raise our loss forecasts and consequently cut our target price, which is still based on 1x CY14 P/BV. De-rating catalysts include continued overcapacity in Singapore, coupled with tough Australian and Indonesian markets.

Mapletree Commercial Trust - Viva la VivoCity (DBSV)

Mapletree Commercial Trust
HOLD S$1.17
STI : 3,133.76
Price Target : 12-Month S$ 1.32 (Prev S$ 1.32)
Viva la VivoCity

•3QFY14 results slightly above estimate; DPU increased by 12% y-o-y to 1.67 Scts
•Strong rental uplift at VivoCity and PSA Building
•Maintain HOLD, TP S$1.32

Highlights
3QFY14 above expectations. MCT reported 3QFY14 revenue of S$68.4m (+22% y-o-y) and S$49.4m NPI (+25%), attributed to (i) strong tenant sales and rental reversions at VivoCity, (ii) contribution from Mapletree Anson, and (iii) higher rental income from PSAB. Distributable income grew 24% to S$31.2m, translating into 1.67 Scts DPU (+12% y-o-y). 9MFY14 distributable income is 81% of our full year forecast.

Raffles Medical -Land acquisition only for longterm gain (DBSV)

Raffles Medical
HOLD S$3.09
STI : 3,133.74
Price Target : 12-month S$ 3.15
Land acquisition only for longterm gain

• Acquires adjacent land to existing hospital for expansion, expected completion in 2H2016
• Provides capacity headroom for longer-term expansion; limited near-term impact
• Trades at 24x FY14F PE, similar to regional peers
• Maintain HOLD, TP unchanged at S$3.15

Capitamall Trust -All eyes on Westgate (DBSV)

Capitamall Trust
HOLD S$1.89
STI : 3,133.74
Price Target : 12-Month S$ 2.16
All eyes on Westgate

• Strong end to 2013; DPU of 2.72 is up 8.6%
• Asset enhancements to drive growth; acquisitions to be selectively in the medium term
• HOLD call maintained, TP S$2.16

Highlights
Strong end to 4Q13. Topline and net property income grew 6.9% and 11.1% to S$178.2m and S$125.4m respectively. This was largely attributable to the completion of: (i) Asset enhancement initiatives (AEIs) at Atrium and IMM

Frasers Commercial Trust - Awaiting the year-end kicker (DBSV)

Frasers Commercial Trust
BUY S$1.27
STI : 3,133.74
Price Target : 12-Month S$ 1.46
Awaiting the year-end kicker

• Strong start to 1Q14 with a DPU of 2.05 Scts
• Bonus kicker from Alexandra Technopark master lease
• BUY, TP SS$1.46

Highlights
1Q14 DPU of 2.05 Scts is in line. Frasers Commercial Trust (FCOT) reported a 3% and 4% y-o-y decline in gross revenue and NPI to S$28.8m and S$22.1m respectively.

Sunday, February 2, 2014

Starhill Global REIT - Yearning for growth (MKE)

Starhill Global REIT
Share Price: SGD0.76
Target Price: SGD0.84
Yearning for growth

FY13 DPU up 13.9% to 5 SGD cts. Singapore portfolio remained the key growth driver. Full-year results met expectations.
China and Japan portfolios continued to languish, with FY13 NPI down 16.1% and 50.7% YoY respectively.
Look forward to divestment of China and Japan assets and AEI in Australia in FY14.

CapitaCommercial Trust: Uptick in expectations (DBSV)

CapitaCommercial Trust:
STI : 3,100.24
HOLD S$1.45
Price Target : 12-Month S$ 1.52 (Prev S$ 1.46)
Uptick in expectations

•4Q13 results in line
•Uptick in operational performance and outlook
•Maintain HOLD, revised TP S$1.52

Highlights
4Q13 results in line. CapitaCommercial Trust (CCT) reported gross revenue and net property income of S$98.6m (1.5% y-o-y). The uptick in rental income mainly came from Six Battery Road, which completed its Asset Enhancement Initiatives (AEI) in Dec’13 (S$3.8m, +31%),

Tiger Airways: Time to disembark (OCBC)

Tiger Airways:
Fair value S$0.42
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.00
versus: Current price S$0.49
Time to disembark

Tiger Airways Holdings (TR) recorded a shocking S$118.5m net loss, including S$88.3m in exceptional charges, for 3QFY14; net profit a year ago was S$2.0m. The exceptional charges comprise a S$30.3m loss on the planned disposal of Tigerair Philippines (TRP) and an impairment of associates of S$58.0m (this latter number excludes TRP).

Raffles Medical: Putting In Place Building Blocks Of Growth (DMG)

 Raffles Medical: Putting In Place Building Blocks Of Growth
(BUY, SGD3.06, TP: SGD3.61)

RFMD will be acquiring the land adjacent to its Raffles Hospital to expand the latter’s facilities. It also recently bought a building with a view of expanding its healthcare services. Both acquisitions, to be funded internally owing to the group’s robust balance sheet and operating cash flow, will boost revenue growth in the long term. Upgrade to BUY, with our DCF-derived TP at SGD3.61.

Parkway Life REIT - Another record year (CIMB)

Parkway Life REIT  
Current S$2.28
Target S$2.37
Another record year

▊ Plife’s 4Q DPU reached another record high, up 6.0%/4.8% on qoq/yoy basis (5.5% yoy growth excluding a one-off IRAS tax adjustment of S$0.7m). Growth largely came on the back of Japanese acquisitions and Singapore hospital rental adjustments. FY13 results is broadly in line, forming 99% and 98% of our and consensus estimates. Maintain our Hold rating on valuations, as we believe a premium has been priced in at 1.4x FY14 P/BV and 5.3% FY14 dividend yield. Our DDM-based target price remains unchanged at S$2.37.

KLCC Property - No major impact expected from higher costs in 2014 (CIMB)

KLCC Property Holdings
Current RM5.66
Target RM5.90
No major impact expected from higher costs in 2014

KLCCP's triple net lease agreements for its office assets imply that it would not be significantly impacted by the higher utilities cost and assessment rates as they would be borne by its master tenants. While this means downside risk to earnings is limited, we note that earnings upside would also be limited given the lack of asset injections. We thus maintain our Hold call on the stock, with an unchanged DDM-based target price of RM5.90. For exposure to Malaysian REITs, we suggest investors switch to Axis REIT.
Warren E. Buffett(沃伦•巴菲特)
Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful
别人贪婪时我恐惧, 别人恐惧时我贪婪
投资只需学好两门课: 一,是如何给企业估值,二,是如何看待股市波动
吉姆·罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)
“错过时机”胜于“搞错对象”:不会全军覆没!”
做自己熟悉的事,等到发现大好机会才投钱下去

乔治·索罗斯(George Soros)

“犯错误并没有什么好羞耻的,只有知错不改才是耻辱。”

如果操作过量,即使对市场判断正确,仍会一败涂地。

李驰(中国巴菲特)
高估期间, 卖对, 不卖也对, 买是错的。
低估期间, 买对, 不买也是对, 卖是错的。

Tan Teng Boo


There’s no such thing as defensive stocks.Every stock can be defensive depending on what price you pay for it and what value you get,
冷眼(冯时能)投资概念
“买股票就是买公司的股份,买股份就是与陌生人合股做生意”。
合股做生意,则公司股份的业绩高于一切,而股票的价值决定于盈利。
价值是本,价格是末,故公司比股市重要百倍。
曹仁超-香港股神/港股明灯
1.有智慧,不如趁势
2.止损不止盈
成功者所以成功,是因为不怕失败!失败者所以失败,是失败后不再尝试!
曾淵滄-散户明灯
每逢灾难就是机会,而是在灾难发生时贱价买股票,然后放在一边,耐性地等灾难结束
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