Saturday, January 25, 2014

Kerry Logistics -The load runners (CIMB)

Kerry Logistics Network
Current HK$13.92
Target HK$16.00
The load runners

With intra-Asia trade links developing exponentially, the market for third-party logistics (3PL) providers in the region has grown as well. Kerry Logistics Network (KLN) has leveraged this need to become a prominent logistics service provider in Greater China and Asia.

We initiate coverage on KLN with an Add rating and an SOP-based target price of HK$16. Rising trade flows may be a catalyst, especially with a cyclical upswing of the economy. We also see sustained investor appetite for logistics exposure as the e-commerce sector expands further.

ICBC trust product default not a harbinger of bigger problems (CIMB)

 ICBC trust product default not a harbinger of bigger problems
Investors are increasingly asking themselves whether the recent problems with an ICBC trust product may be the harbinger of bigger problems for the banks sector or even the broader economy. Our view is that headline risk remains the primary risk as authorities continue moves to curb the shadow banking industry.

 What Happened
China banks have been under pressure as international media has reported that a trust product distributed by ICBC will probably default when due on 31 Jan. ICBC has announced that it will not bail out the product. Notably, this news has been well covered in the domestic media for several weeks. The trust product raised Rmb3bn in 2011 for the Shanxi Zhenfu Energy group, a coal miner that subsequently collapsed. Our understanding is that, in line with most such products, ICBC is under no contractual obligation to bail out the product.

CNOOC -Headwinds in the near term (CIMB)

CNOOC Limited
Current HK$13.96
Target HK$17.60
Headwinds in the near term

 Production growth in FY14 to be lower-than-expected due to slow project executionat CNOOC, while its volume growth is expected to deliver in FY15We have adjusted our earnings in FY13/14/15 by +5%/-1%/+5% accordingly and reduced our target price to HK$17.6.

What Happened
CNOOC released its business strategy previewfor 2014 with a production target of 422-435mmboe,including 69mmboe from Nexen. It has 7-10 new projects scheduled to come onstream in 2014.We expect the FY14 capex plan to be Rmb105bn-120bn (including Nexen).The FY10-15 production growth target remains unchanged at 6-10%CAGR.

曹仁超:马年炒趋势 不要买大细

一元复始,万象更新。2014年元旦刚过去不久,蛇年将过,马年将临,后市如何布局?

1980年开始,发达国家与新兴国家经济进入再平衡期;但全世界社会贫富差距却在扩大,主因是列根总统、戴卓尔夫人为首的西方政权采纳佛利民经济政策,令各国境内富有阶层积聚财富能力大增,变成富者愈富,中产阶级却陷入没落期,M形社会出现。

1980年前是富国与贫穷国家差距很大,自1990年起蔓延至其它国家及地区内部,首先是日本、香港自1997年起、美国自2000年起,社会内贫富差距日渐扩大,因为发达国家将工序及服务业出口,令发达国家境内工人阶级收入,其后是中产阶级的收入,与社会上20%富有阶级的收入差距日益扩阔。

与股神对话 巴菲特投资16问

与股神对话 巴菲特投资16问
Created 01/20/2014 - 16:37
沃伦‧巴菲特已经被世界公认为“股神”,他的投资成就已经不用赘述,而他的投资理念也早已成为投资大众的研究项目。

因此,不管是他一年一度写给伯克夏股东的信函,抑或是任何场合的言谈,都会引起极度关注,甚至被视为字字珠玑。

例如巴菲特所说的:“在别人恐惧时贪婪,在别人贪婪时恐惧”、“现金就像是氧气”、“他们(专业经理人)不需要我,而是我需要他们”、“企业护城河”等等。

CNOOC -Downgrade to NEUTRAL on lower production growth (CS)

CNOOC Ltd
Downgrade to NEUTRAL
Price (20 Jan 14 , HK$) 13.96
TP (prev. TP HK$) 16.00 (20.00)
New report: Downgrade to NEUTRAL on lower production growth

● At its annual Strategy Preview on 20 January, CNOOC announced its 2014 production target (ex Nexen) of 0.6-4.3% YoY growth. This is below our forecast of 8%, and significantly below consensus expectations of 10-12% growth.

● Management maintained 6-10% production CAGR for 2011-15, which we think is too stretched. We believe a 3-4% target is more likely, implying 11% 2015E growth vs the company's low-end guidance of 22%. With the disclosure of new projects, assuming peak production for all projects in 2015, and applying a 9% discount rate for the existing projects, CNOOC still needs to add 167kboe/d production in 2015 to hit the low bar of its guidance of 6%.

Friday, January 24, 2014

Yoma Strategic - A transitional year ahead (OCBC)

Yoma Strategic Holdings:
Fair value S$0.97
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.01
versus: Current price S$0.75
A transitional year ahead – Upgrade to BUY

We turn positive on Yoma and upgrade the stock to BUY with a higher fair value estimate of S$0.97 (versus S$0.84 previously). Our investment thesis rests on two key parts. First, our base case is for the Landmark acquisition to complete in 1H14. The accretion from this project makes up 41% of Yoma’s fair value estimate and we anticipate a successful acquisition to be a key price catalyst.

Mapletree Logistics Trust - Another stable quarter (CIMB)

Mapletree Logistics Trust
Current S$1.02.
Target S$1.11
Another stable quarter

▊ MLT’s 3QFY14 results were in line with consensus and our expectations, with this quarter’s DPU accounting for 26% of our full-year forecast and 9MFY14 for 76%. Revenue for the quarter grew 1% yoy, mainly a result of the weakening of the yen. During FY13/14, MLT hedged/derived more than 95% of its distributable income in SG$. We maintain our Hold rating with an unchanged DDM-based (discount rate: 8.1%) target price of S$1.11, as the REIT continues to seek opportunities to boost its earnings.

S-REIT - Not as muddy as it seems (CIMB)

REIT
Not as muddy as it seems
NEUTRAL - Maintained

▊ 2013 was a choppy year for S-REITs, with the market focused on the effects of QE tapering. We examine the possible trends and issues for S-REITs in 2014. Given the headwinds in various sub-sectors, high asset prices and rising financing costs (both equity and debt), REITs may have to look overseas for yield-accretive acquisitions. Amid rising risks and potentially higher interest rates, particularly in 2015, we remain Neutral on the sector, with SUN and FCT as our preferred picks.

Del Monte Pacific- Truly Sweet (20)16? (CIMB)

Del Monte Pacific
Current S$0.62
Target S$1.14
Truly Sweet (20)16?

▊ We stated in our initiation report in Mar 2013 that the key re-rating catalyst of earnings growth driven by the favourable changes in 2015 would lead to stronger earnings for Del Monte Pacific (DMPL) in FY15. The ambitious proposal to acquire Del Monte Foods (DMF) in the US, if successful, could result in a truly sweet (20)16 for the company. In this note, we provide an update on DMPL’s operations and the proposed acquisition’s financing structure. We keep our target price of S$1.14, based on 17.5x CY15 P/E (6-year average). The upcoming circular on the proposed acquisition will provide clarity. The re-rating catalysts are: 1) the completion of the acquisition by end-Feb, 2) confirmed financing details, and 3) a clearer business strategy.

曾淵滄專欄 24.01.14:製造業收縮不用怕

由於滙豐公佈中國PMI初值,跌破50點大關,導致港股大跌,恒指下跌348點,人民銀行縱出手扶持,再推逆回購,但托不起恒指,大戶強沽期指,誰也擋不住,反而是內地股市好一些,滬綜指跌幅比恒指溫和得多,內地創業板指數更再度創歷史新高。

PMI值跌破50點,表示製造業在收縮,問題大嗎?一點也沒問題,中國經濟在轉型中,生產成本越來越高,工業外移是自然的事;工業外移,PMI下跌沒甚麼大不了,反正過去好一段時間,在香港上市的工業股的估值已經很低,PE多不超過10倍,股價也難以再大跌。

First REIT: Ends FY13 with 7.52 S cents DPU (OCBC)

First REIT:
Fair value S$1.19
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.083
versus: Current price S$1.055
Ends FY13 with 7.52 S cents DPU

First REIT (FREIT) reported FY13 gross revenue and DPU growth of 44.5% and 14.3% (excluding exceptional gains distribution of 0.68 S cent in FY12) to S$83.3m and 7.52 S cents, and closely matched our revenue and DPU forecast of S$83.2m and 7.54 S cents, respectively. Looking ahead, we believe FREIT’s key priority in any lease terms negotiation for new acquisitions would be to maintain its base rental denomination in SGD to minimise its FX risk. We trim our FY14 and FY15 DPU forecasts marginally by 1.5%, on lower revenue and higher finance costs assumptions. But as we roll forward our valuations, our DDM-derived fair value estimate inches up from S$1.18 to S$1.19. Maintain BUY on FREIT as FY14F distribution yield remains attractive at 7.9%.

Thursday, January 23, 2014

M1 -Dividend surprise (CIMB)

M1 Limited  
Current S$3.24
Target S$3.80
Dividend surprise

▊ While M1’s FY13 core net profit missed our estimate (94% of our forecast), its dividend exceeded our raised expectations. The earnings miss was largely due to higher-than-expected opex. However, its core net profit met consensus expectations (98% of FY13 estimates). M1 proposed a final DPS of 7.1 Scts and a special DPS of 7.1 Scts, bringing the full-year total to 21 Scts (121% payout), up 44% yoy. The take-up of tiered data plans surged 17% pts qoq to 49%, which we believe offset the lower international roaming revenues. We cut our FY14-15 EPS by 6-14% and DCF-based (WACC 7.2%) target price by 7.3%. However, M1 remains an Add with the dividend surprise and rapid take-up of tiered data plans acting as likely re-rating catalysts.

Ascendas REIT - Buffered for downside (MKE)

Ascendas REIT -
Share Price: SGD2.15
Target Price: SGD2.30
Buffered for downside

3QFY3/14 results in line with market expectations.

AREIT still has SGD93.6m worth of development and asset enhancement works, which are scheduled for completion in 1Q14-2Q15, serving as buffers for downside risk.

Capital value still at risk. We see AREIT’s success closely intertwined with Singapore’s economic restructuring efforts. We reiterate HOLD with unchanged TP of SGD2.30.

UMS Holdings - Cream of the dividend crop (MKE)

UMS Holdings -
Share Price: SGD0.59
Target Price: na
Cream of the dividend crop

We like UMS for its high dividend per share (2013 YTD: 3 cents, 2010-12: 5 cents, with a special dividend of 1 cent in 2010-11). If there is a special dividend in FY13 as well, yield will exceed 10% at the current share price.

Net margins already exceed 20% even with low utilisation rate of 60-70%. Higher utilisation on more volume from Applied Materials and new business could boost margins, enhancing cash flow further and its ability to pay dividends.

Halcyon Agri - Malaysian Entry Sealed (UOBKH)

Halcyon Agri Corp -
Share Price S$0.81
Target Price S$0.95
Malaysian Entry Sealed

WHAT’S NEW
• Halcyon Agri Corp (Halcyon) announced on 16 January the completion of the acquisition of two natural rubber (NR) processing factories in Ipoh, Malaysia together with all associated buildings, plant and machinery and four plots of land on which the assets are located and operated.

• Following the acquisition, CLS Sdn Bhd and its wholly-owned subsidiary Hevea CLS Sdn Bhd have become indirect wholly-owned subsidiaries of the company.

曾淵滄專欄23.01.14:A股2000點真神奇

內地滬綜指2000點有點像神奇數字,從去年至今,已經有數次跌破這個水平,但是,每次跌破之後,很快地又反彈了,反彈的原因是中央政府出手扶持。

去年底,許多人都在談A股的新股將排山倒海而出,會打擊A股,會在已經水緊的市場中再抽資。

但是,我則認為內地新股很可能如香港一樣,掀起炒風,現在,A股新股真的上市了,也的確掀起炒風,炒風絕不比香港遜色。

Rotary Eng Ltd - Leaving SATORP behind (AM)

Rotary Eng Ltd -
LAST CLOSE: S$0.640
FAIR VALUE: S$0.750
Leaving SATORP behind

On track for recovery in 2014. We met up with Rotary’s CFO Mr Phillip Choo and Financial Controller Mr Cheong Yew Meng to get an update on the company’s progress going into 2014. We are heartened to hear that the company is well on track in its path to recovery.

The SATORP project that was beset with issues in the last 2 years has achieved financial closure in 4Q13.

Wednesday, January 22, 2014

Ascendas REIT -Positivity dampened (CIMB)

Ascendas REIT
Current S$2.15
Target S$2.36
Positivity dampened

▊ AREIT 3QFY14 revenue rose by 6.4% yoy while DPU fell by 2.2% yoy. 9MFY14 DPU accounted for 77% of our FY14 forecast. As the industrial market in Singapore remains challenging and the rental market is expected to slow due to the high supply, we have lowered our FY14/15 revenue forecast by 1.4% and raise our risk-free rate by 30bp to 3.7% to account for a higher interest rates environment. Maintain Hold rating with a slightly lower DDM-based (discount rate: 7.7%) target price of S$2.36.

Cambridge Industrial Trust - Year of repositioning (CIMB)

Cambridge Industrial Trust -
Current S$0.70
Target S$0.80
Year of repositioning

CIT's 4Q13 revenue and NPI growth came in at -3.1% yoy and +1.8% yoy respectively. These results translate into 24% and 25% of our respective 4QFY13 estimates. Together with the previous 9M earnings, full-year revenue and DPU were in line with our expectations, meeting 98% and 99% of our respective FY13 estimates.

Given another proactive year ahead (in terms of managing and repositioning its portfolio) coupled with interest savings and a strong balance sheet, we maintain our Add call with an unchanged DDM-based target price (discount rate: 8.2%) of S$0.80.

Yoma Strategic - Overachieved on less tax expense (CIMB)

Yoma Strategic Holdings
Current S$0.73
Target S$0.75
Overachieved on less tax expense

▊ Yoma’s 9MFY3/14 revenue and operating profit were generally in line with our expectation. However, 9M14 core PATMI achieved 106% of our full-year forecast due to lower-than-expected tax expense. We revise up our FY14 EPS estimate by 14.8% from 0.83 Scts to 0.95 Scts due to lower tax expense, but maintain the FY15-16 earnings forecast. The upward adjustment of FY14 EPS has minimum impact on our FY15 RNAV. Our target price stays at S$0.75 (based on 1x FY15 RNAV). Maintain the Reduce recommendation. The upward adjustment of FY14 EPS has minimum impact on our FY15 RNAV. And given the still unconfirmed Landmark acquisition, our current target price stays at S$0.75. Maintain the Reduce recommendation.

Genting Hong Kong - From Macau to the Philippines (CIMB)

Genting Hong Kong
Current US$0.43
Target US$0.57
From Macau to the Philippines

We remain positive on GENHK as a RNAV value play despite negative newsflow coming from Macau and the Philippines. GENHK could be forking out capital to develop its Macau landbank well before securing any gaming facilities. In the meantime, Resorts World Manila’s (RWM) 4Q13 GGR was weak and we cut our EPS by 3-11% accordingly.

Nevertheless, we remain positive on the Philippines which should provide a key catalyst. Our target price is revised downwards based on a 20% discount to GENHK’s RNAV. We maintain our Add recommendation.

曾淵滄專欄22.01.14:補價仲裁誰是贏家

今年的施政報告中,房地產政策算是重中之重,今年有一項全新的政策,就是補地價仲裁先導計劃。

數年前,房屋署前署長梁展文退休後,打算到地產商任職,遭到立法會的質疑,質疑他到那裏任職是一種延後利益,還召他上立法會審問一番。

從此,當官的都盡量與商界保持距離,負責補地價談判的官員們更是瓜田李下,為了表示清白,為了避免被人指摘官商勾結,在補地價的談判上態度強硬,無商無量;結果,談判速度大幅放慢,特首在那10年建屋47萬個住宅單位的目標,就可能達不到,政府在新界本身所擁有的土地,可能還比不上地產商。

Rotary Engineering - Key Takeaways From Management Meeting (UOBKH)

Rotary Engineering -
Share Price S$0.630
Target Price S$0.880
Key Takeaways From Management Meeting

INVESTMENT HIGHLIGHTS
• Award of the RAPID contract will be later than expected. According to management, Petronas is still evaluating the tenders for the RAPID project but will probably announce the results only in 2H14, later than the 1Q14 as initially expected. As a recap, the Petronas RAPID project has a contract size of approximately US$700m-1b and will significantly bump up Rotary’s orderbook if they manage to secure it. In addition, the internal engineering and design department has already started work on the tank design and as a contingency plan, is able to offer their service to the main contractor if they fail to secure this project.

Tuesday, January 21, 2014

Yoma Strategic -Good progress (DBSV)

Yoma Strategic Holdings:    
STI : 3,140.44
BUY S$0.73
Price Target : 12-month S$ 1.02
Good progress
 
•3QFY14 results in line, driven by sale of more LDR at Star City and tourism income
•Property sales healthy, construction progressing
•Star City, Landmark to underpin future earnings  

Golden Agri-Resources: Valuations look less pricey (OCBC)

Golden Agri-Resources:
Fair value S$0.50
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.010
versus: Current price S$0.525
Valuations look less pricey

Despite a disappointing set of 3Q13 results, Golden Agri-Resources’ (GAR) share price rose to a high of S$0.61 on 18 Nov, likely buoyed by more signs that CPO (crude palm oil) prices are stabilizing around current levels (MYR2500/ton). However, as noted in our report dated 20 Nov, we believe that the run-up in share price looked overdone. And true enough, GAR’s share price has since corrected over 14% from that high. Nevertheless, with recent correction in share price, we note that GAR is just 5% above our unchanged fair value of S$0.50 (based on 13.5x FY14F EPS). As such, we upgrade our rating from Sell to HOLD.

Singapore Press Holdings: A soft landing for ad revenues (OCBC)

Singapore Press Holdings:
Fair value S$4.14
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.22
versus: Current price S$4.00
A soft landing for ad revenues

FY13 figures mostly in line
Cost savings of S$19m p.a. ahead
S$100m New Media Fund

1QFY14 results within expectations
1QFY14 PATMI dipped 6.6% YoY to S$88.8m mostly due to lower contributions from the property segment after the SPH REIT spin-off and softer numbers from the core print business.

Mapletree Logistics Trust - First acquisition of the year (CIMB)

Mapletree Logistics Trust
Current S$1.05
Target S$1.11
First acquisition of the year

▊ Amid a tight acquisition market, MLT recently announced its proposed acquisition of an industrial warehouse in Iskandar Malaysia – its fourth property in this area upon completion. Although we are positive on the deal, the impact on earnings is expected to be limited. We maintain our Hold rating and DDM-based (discount rate: 8.1%) target price.

曾淵滄專欄 21.01.14:玩股仔切忌賭身家

內地股市一跌再跌,而滬綜指昨日又一次跌破2000點,2000點是一個重要的心理關口,因此,昨日恒指只好跟隨A股下跌,跌幅比A股還大一點。

不過,我依然認為大家千萬不要因此而全面放棄藍籌股,而將全部身家投入近日熱炒的三四線股,比較穩健的做法,應該仍是以藍籌為主,投入三四線股的資金不應該超過一半。

目前藍籌股的平均PE已相當低,再跌的空間有限,許多小股民放棄藍籌股,是因為貪婪之心推動,看到三四線股股價飛升,而無力抗拒飛身而入的誘惑,近來我也參與新股及半新股的炒作,偶爾也會追一些突然炒起的舊股,但是我嚴控資金的投入比例,絕不貪心,不會隨意加碼,現在多份傳媒都在努力尋找街坊股神、少年股神、老婆婆、老伯伯股神,然後以大篇幅報道他們的戰績,這些戰績會引來更多貪婪的人,人人都想孤注一擲,希望買中另一隻股價能上升100倍的股。

TEE Land -Rewarding Shareholders After Higher YoY Profits (VR)

TEE Land Ltd
Increase Exposure
Rewarding Shareholders After Higher YoY Profits
 Intrinsic Value S$0.545•
 Prev Closing S$0.315•

 TEE Land Ltd (TEE Land) recently announced its 2QFY14 results with a 23.3% decrease in revenue to S$2.4m (2QFY13: S$3.2m) and an 82.9% increase in gross profit to S$1.1m (2QFY13: S$0.6m). This was due to fewer revenue recognition from the existing projects, with revenue recognized for The Peak @ Cairnhill 1 and rental revenue from the ‘Workotel’ in New Zealand. This takes TEE Land 1HFY14 revenue to S$16m with gross profit coming in at S$2.7m. PATMI for 2QFY14 stood at S$1.6m, which was mainly boosted by an S$1.7m contribution from the share of associates. The company is also declaring an interim dividend of S$0.005/share.

Monday, January 20, 2014

SILVERLAKE AXIS - Empowering Growth in ASEAN banks (Phillip)

SILVERLAKE AXIS -
 Target Price (SGD)1.02
Closing Price (SGD)0.92
Empowering Growth in ASEAN banks

Investment Merits

  • Capitalising on regional demand for core banking transformations, with about  RM300  million  project  backlog  and  poised  to  win  further contracts
  • Future  recurring  revenue  stream  generated  with  each  successful implementation of its licensed software system.

Olam International -A mixed bag (MKE)

Olam International
Share Price: SGD1.55
Target Price: SGD1.57
A mixed bag

Olam’s trading portfolio is practically immune to a potential drop in hard commodity demand.
A longer-term concern is its growth outlook following a significant cutback on capex for the next three years.
Short-term risks include lower commodity prices and uncertain outlook for coffee and cotton trading. Maintain HOLD.

Noble Group -China exposure a big concern (MKE)

Noble Group
Share Price: SGD1.035
Target Price: SGD1.07
China exposure a big concern

 Noble has the strongest balance sheet among the commodity traders under our coverage.
 One big concern for us is its substantial exposure to coal and iron ore, which are most sensitive to the change in China’s commodity consumption pattern.
 Maintain HOLD and TP of SGD1.07.

Wilmar International -Well positioned (MKE)

Wilmar International
Share Price: SGD3.27
Target Price: SGD4.30
Well positioned

 Wilmar is our top BUY for 2014.
 We believe it will benefit from stabilising soybean crushing margins, benign CPO price and a strong financial position.
 Our TP of SGD4.30 is based on 14x FY14E P/E.

Top commodity trader pick for 2014
Wilmar continues to be our top pick among the SGX-listed commodity traders. It offers better earnings visibility, clear catalysts and strong financial position. We reiterate our BUY call with a target price of SGD4.30, pegged to 14x FY14E P/E.

曾淵滄專欄20.01.14:藍籌股有上升理由

儘管近日人人都在講「炒股不炒市」,但是今年1月17日,恒指在美股下跌,以及內地A股下跌的情況之下,仍然能先跌後回升,而且升幅亦有不錯的表現,看來恒指在近日已找到支持力。

市場兩極化的結果是大量散戶專炒三四線的蚊型股,這對發行股輪的大行而言,是一場大災難,因為大部份的窩輪是針對恒指成份股這類大型企業而發的,如果這類股股價不升,炒窩輪只會虧時間值。

因此,我估計大行有必要做點事,設法推動恒指成份股的股價,特別是市值高的恒指成份股,而銀娛(027)、騰訊(700)不斷破頂。

Commodity Traders -In a state of flux (MKE)

Commodity Traders -In a state of flux

2014 looks set to be a year of transformation for commodity traders, with demand from China slowing and a stronger USD coming into play. Maintain Neutral.

The winners could be companies with little or no exposure to hard commodities, fewer upstream plantations or mining operations, stronger balance sheets and lower cost of debt.

Wilmar fits the profile and is our top pick in the sector. Reiterate BUY and TP of SGD4.30.

Sunday, January 19, 2014

曾淵滄-股市资讯专栏 17.01.2014-中国新股上市热潮 ,小心为上!

中国新股上市热潮 ,小心为上!
文: 曾渊沧博士 2014年01月17日 曾渊沧博士专栏
目前不论是新加坡股市或者是香港股市,若只看指数,则不升不跌,沉闷得慌。但是,香港的新股则炒得火热,热度有如牛市末期,真可以以疯狂来形容,有多只新股上市后一个月内股价升3倍。

股市两极发展,市值不高的二、三线股的成交额也越来越大。以1月10日为例,成交额超过2亿港元。同时打入香港股市前50名成交榜的二、三线热门概念股,就有超过10只挑战蓝筹股、大型股的地位。看来,一些大户也开始心动,加入炒卖热门概念股。

日前有一只小小只、容易炒的新股上市,那是中华包装(1439),集资额仅1亿港元,超额认购200多倍。仅1亿港元的新股,任何可称为庄家大户的人都有能力炒起。结果上市第一天股价就急升70%,唯一的理由就是一个“炒”字。

Gamuda - A Good Proxy To Malaysia’s Construction Play (UOBKH)

Gamuda (GAM MK)
Share Price RM4.61
Target Price RM5.43
A Good Proxy To Malaysia’s Construction Play

We recently met with Gamuda and understand that in the coming months, the company expects the formal approval of MRT Line 2 by the Cabinet. The project would likely need two years to be shovel-ready. Also, the company has secured 40% in acceptance for its KESAS offer, bringing its holding to 70%. Next year, we expect newsflow for the Gemas JB double tracking to gain momentum which we believe would favour Gamuda. Maintain BUY. Target price: RM5.43.

Muhibbah Engineering - The mojo is oil & gas infra (CIMB)

Muhibbah Engineering -
Current RM2.38
Target RM3.05
The mojo is oil & gas infra

At our Malaysia Corporate Day yesterday, management reiterated that the group's prospects for 2014 will be driven by oil & gas and port/marine-related infra contracts but the positive surprise was that it is also vying for an oil & gas infra job in Cambodia. Turnaround prospects look more exciting domestically, backed by Petronas's RM60bn capex p.a., which should benefit the group's cranes and shipyard divisions. EPS is unchanged but there is upside potential. Our target price remains pegged to a 30% RNAV discount. Potentially strong order flows are the stock's main appeal, with likely job wins in 1H14 as medium-term catalysts. Maintain Add.

WCT -Fundamentals Remain Intact (M&A)

WCT Holdings Berhad
Current Price (RM)RM2.39
New Target Price (RM)RM2.78
“Fundamentals Remain Intact”

YTD financial review. WCT Holdings Bhd (WCT) earnings are set to end the year in an upbeat mode driven rapid implementation of various projects. 2014 outlook is no less exciting as the company is start the year with RM3 billion orderbook. WCT posted higher revenue of RM1.4 billion (+18% y-o-y) in 9M13 on the back of higher contribution from construction and property development division which rose by 15% y-o-y and 32% y-o-y to RM936 million and RM410 million respectively. 9M13 operating profit rose to RM225 million (+17% y-o-y) with the margin remains intact at 16% (9M12: 16%).

Malaysia 2014 -CONSUMER SECTOR -Challenging 2014 (M&A)

Strategy Outlook- Malaysia 2014
CONSUMER SECTOR
(Neutral)
“Challenging 2014”
Outlook. We expect Malaysian consumers will face a few challenges next year. The main challenges are the
1) rising cost of living and
2) decelerating in purchasing power.

These are due to the increase in the prices of goods and services. The recent increase in fuel prices and electricity tariff hike effective by 1st January 2014 would be among the cause of acceleration in inflation. We have a NEUTRAL call on the sector with Parkson (BUY; TP: RM4.29) as our top pick.

Malaysia 2014 -Telecommunication Sector -4G Play (M&A)

Strategy Outlook- Malaysia 2014
Telecommunication Sector
(Overweight)
“4G Play”
Telecommunication sector is an Overweight on i) stable dividend ii) continuing positive net addition both prepaid and postpaid and iii) potential wider margin of 4G factor iv) goodies from Budget 2014, HSBB 2.0. Telekom is our Top Pick with a BUY call and fair value of RM6.20.

Penetration rate growing wild. The penetration rate refers to the total subscriptions divided by the total population and multiplied by 100.

Malaysia 2014 -Rubber Gloves Sector -Continue Growing(M&A)

Strategy Outlook- Malaysia 2014
Rubber Gloves Sector
(Neutral)
“Continue Growing”
2014 Outlook. We believe natural rubber glove industry will continue to grow as demand will remain steady in tandem with the rising popularity and legislation to use rubber gloves and capability of exporting more rubber-based products. Nitrile rubber glove will continue to grow rapidly driven by the increase in demand especially from US and Europe due to its awareness of hygiene and not to mention strict government regulations. The technological expertise in the rubber glove industry is highly looked upon and has placed Malaysia's rubber-based products such as tyres and gloves among the best in the world. We have a Neutral call on the sector driven by steady demand and neutral impact of the fuel price hike and GST. We have a Buy call on Supermax (TP: RM2.85), and Hold call on Hartalega (TP: RM8.13) and Top Gloves (TP: RM6.23).
Warren E. Buffett(沃伦•巴菲特)
Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful
别人贪婪时我恐惧, 别人恐惧时我贪婪
投资只需学好两门课: 一,是如何给企业估值,二,是如何看待股市波动
吉姆·罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)
“错过时机”胜于“搞错对象”:不会全军覆没!”
做自己熟悉的事,等到发现大好机会才投钱下去

乔治·索罗斯(George Soros)

“犯错误并没有什么好羞耻的,只有知错不改才是耻辱。”

如果操作过量,即使对市场判断正确,仍会一败涂地。

李驰(中国巴菲特)
高估期间, 卖对, 不卖也对, 买是错的。
低估期间, 买对, 不买也是对, 卖是错的。

Tan Teng Boo


There’s no such thing as defensive stocks.Every stock can be defensive depending on what price you pay for it and what value you get,
冷眼(冯时能)投资概念
“买股票就是买公司的股份,买股份就是与陌生人合股做生意”。
合股做生意,则公司股份的业绩高于一切,而股票的价值决定于盈利。
价值是本,价格是末,故公司比股市重要百倍。
曹仁超-香港股神/港股明灯
1.有智慧,不如趁势
2.止损不止盈
成功者所以成功,是因为不怕失败!失败者所以失败,是失败后不再尝试!
曾淵滄-散户明灯
每逢灾难就是机会,而是在灾难发生时贱价买股票,然后放在一边,耐性地等灾难结束
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