Saturday, January 11, 2014

S’pore construction demand to remain strong this year: BCA


Malaysia-Solid execution, visible growth (DBSV)

Solid execution, visible growth
Support from sturdier global growth, low interest rates and ample liquidity
Overweight oil & gas, construction. Underweight telcos, consumer services
Key picks with solid execution, visible growth: Public Bank, SapuraKencana, Bumi Armada, IJM Corp
Buy small-mid caps with favourable risk-reward profiles: MKH, TSH Resources, Muhibbah Engineering

Supportive global growth environment. For 2014, we foresee support for the KLCI from slightly sturdier growth in key economies (US, Eurozone, China), low interest rates, and ample liquidity. This is partly offset by mounting cost pressures, leading to slower growth in domestic consumer spending and tighter margins. Continued capital outflow could further weigh down Malaysia Government bonds and Ringgit. Our year-end KLCI target is 1,930, based on 15x 2015 earnings.

Axis REIT - Attractive yields (DBSV)

Axis REIT
BUY RM2.89
KLCI : 1,829.18
(Upgrade from HOLD)
Price Target : 12-Month RM 3.70
Attractive yields

Recent selldown an opportunity to buy stock for 7% distribution yield
Growth drivers intact; shielded from higher electricity tariffs and assessment tax
Upgrade to BUY, but maintain RM3.70 TP

Esthetics International Group (EIG) -Growing beauty player (DBSV)

Esthetics International Group (EIG)
NOT RATED RM1.05 KLCI : 1,852.95
Return *: 1
Potential Target * : 12-Month RM 1.40 (33% upside)
Growing beauty player

Successful turnaround with new management to drive 3-year earnings CAGR of 40%
Proxy to ASEAN’s growing affluence with new salon expansion and product distributorships
Attractive valuation of 8x FY15 PE (ex-cash); fair value of RM1.40 implies 33% upside

MREITs - Lackluster Prospects in 2014 (Kenanga)

MREITs - Lackluster Prospects in 2014

Recently, bond yields rose to a high of 4.1% from 3.1% in mid-2013 driven mainly by the anticipation of the US Federal Reserve QE tapering. The reversal in bond yields has also caused MREITs spreads to expand. MREITs could be facing weaker rental reversions as tenants combat against rising cost issues (e.g. higher assessment rates, electricity hikes, consumer spending to plateau, competition costs) and office space gluts in the Klang Valley. Meanwhile, MREITs have suffered from a subdued acquisition environment which is expected to persist. We make no changes to our MREITs call and TPs since we have recently increased our yield spreads to reflect the aforesaid risks and the effects of bond yield reversals, which have also caused MREITs’ spreads to expand. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT on MREITs.

M'sia Construction - Return of the upcycle (CIMB)

Construction - Return of the upcycle
Long Term: Over Weight

The ETP and private sector-driven jobs are the two key themes for the sector in 2014. Public transport and rail upgrades are catalysts for the longer term, while excitement in the medium term will come from job rollouts in the private sector. The sector's upcycle is intact. MRT, the largest contract under the ETP, is likely to return to investors' radar in 2014 as execution of MRT 2 gains momentum. Meanwhile, private sector jobs should fill the gap and mitigate the risks of project sequencing. The sector's upcycle should continue in 2014, after a moderation in 2H13. We maintain Overweight on the sector. Gamuda, which offers a good price point, is still our top pick.

Malaysia: Asia’s Overlooked Emerging Market

06 JANUARY 2014
Malaysia: Asia’s Overlooked Emerging Market
By Shane Goh

In Singapore, the Straits Times Index started 2014 in a similar fashion to 2013 at 3181.62 points as a potential quantitative easing tapering comment by Ben Bernanke in May sent world markets spiralling south, erasing all gains achieved in the first five months of the year and condemned it into the negative territory.

However, across the causeway, the FTSE Bursa Malaysia EMAS Index (FBM EMAS) generated a positive 12.4 percent capital gain for 2013, compared to a negative 2 percent return in the FTSE ASEAN Index, bolstered by political stability after the conclusion of an election during the year. Over a longer horizon, the FBM EMAS Index has more than doubled over the past five years.

Friday, January 10, 2014

中国改革阵痛或将开始

[转帖]
2014年 01月 08日 10:40
中国改革阵痛或将开始

2014年会成为中国政府最终收起空白支票的一年么?有迹象显示中国正准备终止债务规模大幅扩张的局面,因此投资者们需留意此举可能带来的“伤亡”。

尽管2014年伊始中国的一些经济数据令人失望,其中汇丰(HSBC)的12月份中国服务业采购经理人指数(PMI)降至50.9,但中国政府似乎会执行严格的紧缩政策,而非往常的经济刺激政策。

VICOM -Resilient business with formidable balance sheet (AM)

VICOM L TD
LAST LOSE S$5.00
FA * VALUE S$6.28
Resilient business with formidable balance sheet

Initiating coverage on VICOM with BUY, TP $6.28. VICOM Ltd has a balance of pro-cyclical and anti-cyclical business segments. Vehicle inspection (anti-cyclical) provides for earnings stability while investors may participate in economic cycle recovery provided for by its subsidiary SETSCO Services.

Marco Polo Marine -Sailing into higher growth (AM)

Marco Polo Marine Ltd
LAST CLOSE: S$0.380
FAIR VALUE: S$0.550
Sailing into higher growth

Marco Polo Marine Ltd (“MPM”) is an integrated marine logistics group whose primary business include 1) Ship owning & chartering and 2) Shipyard services. The chartering division provides mainly Anchor Handling Tug Supply (“AHTS”) vessels as well as Tugs and Barges to various industries. The shipyard division undertakes ship building, repair and maintenance, outfitting and conversion services from its yard in Batam, Indonesia.

Tiger Airways -Reverse course and move on (CIMB)

Tiger Airways
Current S$0.52
Target S$0.47
Reverse course and move on

Tiger Airways was reported to be in discussions to sell its 40% stake in Tigerair Philippines (TAP) to Cebu Air, a good move in our view as it will take TAP a long time to break even in a tough Philippine market.

Nevertheless, we keep our Reduce call as it may continue to face an uphill struggle in Indonesia, while the core Singapore operations are likely to face overcapacity in the next 6-12 months. We retain our forecasts and target price, still based on 1x CY14 P/BV. Share price de-rating catalysts include likely poor results in the immediate future.

Asia-Pacific Dry Bulk Shipping Sector - Go with the grain (CS)

Asia-Pacific Dry Bulk Shipping Sector
Maintain OVERWEIGHT
New report: Go with the grain

● Seaborne global grain volumes are expected to rise 13% in the 2013/14 grain year, driven by a 20% increase in PRC imports, especially of soyabeans and wheat, as consumption exceeds domestic production. Full report.

● This will lift demand for the smaller vessel classes typically used to transport such commodities, as will changing patterns in global sourcing and demand. We now anticipate another 0.7% in global dry bulk demand growth in 2014, taking us > 7% vs. supply of 5%.

Mencast Holdings -Built To Last (DMG)

Mencast Holdings
Target Price: SGD0.74
Price: SGD0.52
Built To Last

 Mencast is a maintenance-repair-overhaul (MRO) service provider to multiple points along the value chain of the oil & gas industry. Having delivered an earnings CAGR of 21% over the last 5 years, the company is targeting for similar growth through 2020. With its strong cash generation ability, the company remains on the lookout for acquisitions. Initiate coverage with BUY and SGD0.74 TP, based on 11x FY14F EPS.

曾淵滄專欄10.01.14:中港地產股遭低估

恒指昨日上午窄幅波動,午後竟然大跌,究竟發生甚麼事呢?其實也看不出有甚麼特別重要的事,有人說是受內地股市拖累,受日股拖累,不過,A股走勢,是先升後跌,午後才急跌,那麼,是甚麼原因令A股午後急跌呢?是新股排隊上市,投資者擔心新股在市場搶錢?我認為這不是原因,若然有人擔心,不應該是午後才跌,而是一開市就跌。因此,我認為唯一可能的理由,就是有大戶在炒作A股期貨及在香港上市的A股ETF,過去一段時間,兩隻A股ETF的沽空比率不小。

Halcyon Agri - Tapping into rubber growth (CS)

Halcyon Agri Corporation Ltd
Price (02 Jan 14, S$) 0.80
Target price (S$) 1.10¹
Tapping into rubber growth

■ Initiating coverage with OUTPERFORM. We initiate coverage of Halcyon Agri with an OUTPERFORM rating and target price of S$1.10. We believe there is a 38% share price upside driven by significant capacity growth and supported by increasing demand in the global tyre market, which should drive earnings CAGR of 60% over 2013-16E.

Thursday, January 9, 2014

AMTEK - Leading Manufacturer With An Attractive Yield (UOBKH)

AMTEK ENGINEERING (AMTK SP)
Leading Manufacturer With An Attractive Yield

INVESTMENT HIGHLIGHTS
• Amtek is a leading end-to-end design and manufacturing solution provider for precision components, casings and enclosures that are used in a wide range of industries like automotives, servers and consumer electronics. The company was delisted from SGX in Aug 07, as it underwent a major restructuring to streamline its operations and expand its product offerings.

Key themes for 2014 -Theme 3: Measures on the property sector (MKE)

Theme #3: Measures on the property sector
Too early to remove cooling measures. Our property developer analyst Wilson is of the view that the anti-speculation measures, introduced since 2009, will unlikely be removed in 2014. In his sector report, Tipping On Tapering, dated 17 Dec 2013, he explains why:

Mortgage rates are only expected to rise in 2015. Removing the measures prematurely could spark another round of irrational exuberance.

Key themes for 2014 -Theme 1: Fed tapering (MKE)

Three issues stand out. 2013 has passed and there are signs that 2014 could turn out to be a much better year, given that the global economy is in a recovery mode. In this report, we explore three important themes that we believe will pan out throughout the course of 2014 and examine their implications for the equity market.

1. A year of Fed tapering. The first cut will commence this month when the Federal Reserve reduces its asset purchases by USD10b to USD75b per month. This comes five years after the start of a series of quantitative easing (QE) exercises that has spawned a prolonged period of low interest rates globally, providing a substantial boost to asset prices. Now that the taper is upon us, the asset inflation cycle could reverse, which would have an impact on the equity market.

Key themes for 2014 -Theme 2: Stance on immigration policies (MKE)

Theme #2: Stance on immigration policies
Curbs on foreign labour inflow to stay. In our view, the current tight immigration policies will remain in place in 2014. We do not think the recent riot in Little India will significantly change the landscape because foreign workers remain critical to Singapore’s economic growth. As illustrated in Figure 13, the Republic has become increasingly reliant on foreign labour to meet its growth targets.

Influx of foreign workers has slowed in recent years. As shown in Figure 14, the growth in the number of foreign workers (excluding foreign domestic helpers) has slowed to 5.9% in Jun 2013, its slowest in four years. The slowdown was led by cutbacks in the number of foreign workers under Employment Pass (Figure 15). At end-Jun 2013, as many as 172,100 employment passes were issued, accounting for 15.9% of the total foreign workforce (excluding foreign domestic helpers).

2014 Strategy Outlook- It’s A Stock-picking Market (MKE)

2014 Strategy Outlook
FSSTI 3,167 (31 Dec 2013)
FSSTI target 3,500 (31 Dec 2014)
It’s A Stock-picking Market

 Stay selective. At 13.5x forward P/E and 1.4x forward P/BV, the Singapore market valuation looks modest from both the historical and regional perspectives. An improving macro outlook supports our view that the FSSTI would hit 3,500 by end-2014, based on 15x 2014E EPS or an implied P/BV of 1.6x, providing a 10.5% upside. We would recommend that investors stay selective, with aviation services, banks, healthcare and offshore and marine our preferred sectors.

曾淵滄專欄09.01.14:勿低估內房股盈利

中原地產不是上市公司,但是每年都會好像上市公司那樣公佈業績。中原最近公佈2013年業績,全年收益高達134億元,比前年多近20%,施永青天天說政府推出的辣招,使本港的地產代理業好像進入了冰河時期,但是中原去年卻大豐收。

中原地產在香港起家,不過目前的利潤多數來自內地,去年來自內地的收益為93億元,比前年增加了60%,更是屬於大躍進的模範。

Thai Beverage - FCL spin-off could be a prelude to restructuring (SCB)

Thai Beverage
PRICE as of 3 Jan 2014 SGD 0.54
PRICE TARGET SGD 0.72
FCL spin-off could be a prelude to restructuring

•On 2 January 2014, the books closed for the subscription for the listing of Fraser Centrepoint Limited (FCL), F&N’s property arm. Each shareholder of Fraser & Neave (F&N) will receive two FCL shares for every one held.

• We reiterate our case for a restructuring. The streamlining of F&N’s business should generate up to THB 8bn in synergy gains, in our view.

Wednesday, January 8, 2014

麥博士(Mark Mobius)單挑大行挺新興市

高盛、摩根士丹利及瑞銀等多家外資大行看淡今年新興市場表現,惟「新興市場之父」麥博士卻力排眾議,預期新興股市今年可收復失地,跑贏成熟市場,其中港股今年料可有10至20%升幅;摩根資產亦給予中國股票市場「增持」評級。港股昨日雖只反覆上升28點,國指亦未止跌,利豐(00494)則「醜股」大翻身,勁飆9.55%,為最大升幅藍籌。

高盛叫沽 大摩睇淡

美國展開退市,市場憂慮資金將由新興市場流走,高盛建議投資者把組合中的發展中國家資產削三分之一,預期未來十年新興市場股票、債券及貨幣將顯著跑輸;摩根士丹利預期今年巴西、土耳其和俄羅斯的匯價將延續去年跌勢。

Osim International -A safe bet (DBSV)

Osim International
BUY S$2.30
STI : 3,167.43
Price Target: 12-month S$2.60
A safe bet

• Met estimates against earnings disappointment in the sector
• New products to propel growth next year
• Expect TWG to contribute more significantly
• Maintain BUY with S$2.60 TP

Midas Holdings - Speeding ahead (DBSV)

Midas Holdings
BUY S$0.51
STI : 3,167.43
Price Target : 12-Month S$ 0.64
Speeding ahead

•Beneficiary of China’s high speed railway (HSR) program
• Earnings to rebound in FY14F as HSR contracts roll in, plus more metro and overseas projects
• Potential huge HSR order for Midas from recent second rolling stock tender for 314 sets
• BUY with S$0.64 TP, based on 1.2x FY14 P/BV

Hutchison Port Holdings Trust - Smoother sailing expected (DBSV)

Hutchison Port Holdings Trust
BUY US$0.675
STI : 3,167.43
Price Target : 12-Month US$ 0.80 (Prev US$ 0.82)
Smoother sailing expected

•Should see better organic throughput growth in 2014 as Europe and US recover
• Lack of one-off events such as industrial action and acquisition costs to boost FY14 numbers
• Attractive prospective yield of 8.1% for FY14 with FY13 final dividend of HK21cts coming up
• BUY with DCF based target price of US$0.80

Goodpack - Proxy to US/Europe recovery (DBSV)

Goodpack
BUY S$1.95
STI : 3,167.43
Price Target : 12-Month S$ 2.25
Proxy to US/Europe recovery

• Prime beneficiary of US/Europe recovery
• New auto part contract is a strong re-rating catalyst
• Reiterate BUY, TP S$2.25

Stronger growth ahead. Goodpack is one of the best proxies to US/Europe recovery with almost half of its revenue from that region. On the back of stronger SR volume, we expect Goodpack to deliver US$14-15m profit (+26-35% y-o-y) in 2Q14 (FYE Jun), depending on the duration of the traditional year-end closing of factories in Dec.

Global Logistic Properties - In a sweet spot (DBSV)

Global Logistic Properties
BUY S$2.89
STI : 3,167.43
Price Target : S$ 3.31
In a sweet spot

• Good proxy to China’s medium term growth prospects
• Broadening expansion track with China logistics fund
• Maintain Buy with TP of S$3.31

Strong proxy to China’s growth from recent reforms. GLP offers exposure to the long term growth prospects in China with 54% of its gross asset value exposed to the country, spread over an attributable 12.9m sm of GFA. In addition, it has another 11.8m sm of land reserves, providing a strong pipeline for future developments.

Genting Singapore - On a rebound (DBSV)

Genting Singapore
BUY S$1.495
STI : 3,167.43
Price Target : 12-Month S$ 1.75
On a rebound

• Earnings recovery from stronger tourist and MICE visitors and steady expansion in rolling chip
• Potential M&A and Japan gaming liberalization could be strong re-rating catalysts
• Valuation lagging behind regional peers. Maintain Buy with TP of S$1.75

曾淵滄專欄 08.01.14:老股民要安全收息

電能(006)分拆港燈,獲99.73%股東支持,只有0.27%的小股東反對。不過,如斯小比例的股東在股東大會上成為焦點,傳媒報道說,他們擔心沒有港燈的電能,將來少了港燈的利潤,股息會不保。

是的,許多買公用股的老股民都是很保守的投資者,他們持股的時間往往長達數十年,目的就只是收息。電能分拆港燈,拿回一大筆錢,將來做進一步投資,估計前途會更好。不過,這批保守的老股民不喜歡冒風險,只想安全地收股息,股息則隨通脹上升,保守的老股民並不喜歡投資新項目。因此,儘管只有0.27%的小股民反對,他們也的確代表着某一類股民。中電(002)及煤氣(003)近年也不斷東征西討,走出香港,相信也一定不受保守股民歡迎。股市裏有各種各樣的投資者與投機者,當然,長期投資者永遠只佔極少數。

Courts Asia - Compelling valuations (DBSV)

Courts Asia
BUY S$0.615
STI : 3,167.43
Price Target : 12-Month S$ 0.77
Compelling valuations

• Opportunity to accumulate at current valuations
• Credit tightening factored into share price; likely to end post-FYE Mar’14
• Valuation attractive at -1SD, downside risk looks limited on our below consensus growth estimates
• Maintain BUY with S$0.77 TP

Tuesday, January 7, 2014

OUE’s $451 mil Singapore REIT IPO to be launched next week

Written by Reuters  
Tuesday, 07 January 2014 22:23
Singapore-listed property firm Overseas Union Enterprise will begin book-building for a commercial real estate investment trust listing in the city-state on Jan. 13 that may raise as much as US$355 million ($451 million), the Thomson Reuters publication IFR reported on Tuesday.

This will be the first major Singapore IPO of 2014, which could be followed by the South Korea’s Lotte Shopping Co Ltd’s US$1 billion REIT after the Chinese New Year holiday.

The OUE Commercial REIT is targeting a market capitalisation of $700 million-$800 million and sponsor OUE plans to retain a stake of around 40%.

搜罗2014商机

搜罗2014商机
Created 01/06/2014 - 15:52
商场上有一句话:没有不景气,只有不争气。

企业能否乘风破浪突围而出,在很大程度上是取决于人,因为人定胜天。

以下是我国主要业者对今年的行业展望,从中了解今年企业界的脉搏。

商业生态系统着重革新——3M大马私人有限公司董事经理吴东阳

戰勝2014併購篇‧併購企業翻身戰

戰勝2014併購篇‧併購企業翻身戰
Created 01/06/2014 - 16:04
經濟不明朗和股市震盪,亞太區2013年的併購市場規模挫3.3%,創四年來低點,然而,全球經濟復甦,東南亞市場情緒卻也創下兩年高點,併購或再度成為東南亞企業2014年伺機待發的大計。

國際投行人士預期2014年將有更多來自亞洲的並購買主以及成為並購目標的亞洲資產,因為相對其他地區,亞洲資產估值仍便宜。亞洲地區的並購交易專家也預見2014年收購活動增多,更多亞洲國有企業料尋求向海外擴張。

Singapore 2014 Outlook -Transportation Sector- Safety first on road to recovery (DBSV)

Transport
(Neutral)
Safety first on road to recovery

• Sector should generally see a mild rebound in profitability as demand slowly improves and with more downside than upside risk for fuel prices
• Prefer yield plays such as HPH Trust and CMH (Pacific) as the road to recovery is still fragile
• Our top picks are blue chip names : ComfortDelgro (TP S$2.19) for its consistent growth profile and SIA (TP S$11.40) for its value and potential to return cash

Singapore 2014 Outlook -Singapore Telecom Sector- Mobile - heading in the right direction (DBSV)

Singapore Telecom Sector
(Neutral)
Mobile - heading in the right direction

• Data re-pricing to benefit mobile business
• Handset subsidy costs may decline by another S$50-80 per handset
• M1 is our top pick as it offers higher growth and better yield (5.4%) than peers

Singapore 2014 Outlook -Singapore REITs- Refocusing on growth (DBSV)

Singapore REITs
(Underweight)
Refocusing on growth

• REITs to see rising cost of capital a hurdle to pursue growth
• Prefer S-REITs with internal growth engines/lower leverage
• Top picks: CDL HT, Suntec REIT, CRCT and FCOT

S-REITs faced with rising cost of capital.
We interpret the FED’s decision to begin tapering its monthly bond-buying program and at the same time keeping short-term interest rates low as a signal that “taper” and “rate hikes” are not synonymous events. As such, the yield curve will continue to remain steep,

Singapore 2014 Outlook -Plantations Sector - Staying put (DBSV)

Plantations Sector
(Underweight)
Staying put

• CY14 CPO price forecast of RM2,570 unchanged; expect higher prices in 1H14 but softer in 2H14
• Macro headwinds abound; watch out for more soybean oil supplies
• Risks: Lower-than-expected output, weak USD and higher biodiesel consumption
• Top BUYs: Bumitama Agri, Wilmar International

Singapore 2014 Outlook -Consumer Sector - Be discerning in 2014 (DBSV)

Consumer (Downstream)
(Underweight)
Be discerning in 2014
• Advocate selective and bottom-up strategy for 2014
• FY14F overall earnings growth reduced from 14% to 9% on slower private consumption and lower margins
• Possible de-rating risk if earnings continue to underperform, with average valuations at +1SD above historical mean
• Selective stock picks are Osim for growth; Courts and Del Monte for being oversold

Singapore 2014 Theme (DBSV)

Theme 1: Leverage on US-Europe recovery
Being a globalised economy, the continued US recovery even if slow, and the anticipated shift out of recession for the Eurozone should underpin Singapore equities. DBS Research expects US GDP growth to inch higher to 2% while the Eurozone swings out from recession with a 0.5% recovery. The forecast from international organizations are more positive – the European Commission expects the Eurozone to return 1.1% growth in 2014 after contracting 0.4% in 2013.

Singapore Strategy 2014 - Recovery adds spice to growth (DBSV)

Singapore Strategy
STI Index 3,167.43
2014 Outlook
■ Earnings growth to accelerate on external recovery
■ Rotation from yield plays to growth to gain momentum
■ Focus on global proxies and China beneficiaries
■ Wave of opportunities in oil and gas sector

Recovery optimism tainted by Asean uncertainties
Singapore equities will be underpinned by the recovery momentum in the US, and the anticipated shift out of recession in the Eurozone. In Asia, China’s GDP slowdown should also stabilise in 2014. However, optimism will be capped by the extent of QE tapering and the weak market sentiment for ASEAN. STI is likely to range trade as sentiment gyrates between optimism in recovery in developed markets and uncertainties within ASEAN. We peg a STI range of 2950 to 3350 in the coming months, which coincides quite closely with 12.33x (-1SD) to 13.9x (Ave) blended FY14/FY15 PE.

曾淵滄專欄 07.01.14:買A股ETF有路捉

內地股市繼續大跌,上證綜指已跌至2045點,再一次逼近2000點關口。

上證綜指去年每逢跌破2000點,我就建議大家買A股ETF,這次也不例外,我依然以2000點為超值價,低過這水平就值得買,然後耐心地持有。

上證綜指穿2000即入貨
恒指昨日受A股影響,再跌0.58%,不過情況好多了,恒指成份股中,止跌回升的有好幾隻,還包括大笨象匯控(005),銀娛(027)也再創新高。恒指下跌,但發生與上周五一模一樣的事,就是當炒熱門股再炒上,嘉里物流(636)上市後,潛伏數天後就起動,越升越有,也帶動其他二三線物流股上升。網購興起,物流業也一定有利,嘉里物流是行業龍頭股,升幅雖比不上二三線物流股,但勝在較穩健。

2014年最值得买入的股票

2014年最值得买入的股票
文: 王秋莹 , 陈挚文 2014年01月03日 展望
尽管市场在2013年大起大落,但随着2014年的到来,我们都希望寻得投资亮点与良机!在推荐最值得买入的股票之前,让我们来看看一些将会影响市场的重大事件。

Monday, January 6, 2014

戰勝2014‧全力應戰‧求變取勝

戰勝2014‧全力應戰‧求變取勝
Created 01/05/2014 - 19:00
2014年是營運環境非常嚴峻之一年,如何嚴峻不必再贅言;精於審時度勢的CEO,已準備運籌帷幄、放手一搏,衝出重圍,戰勝2014年!

且聽CEO各自表述。

IOI集團(IOICORP,1961,主板種稙組)
執行主席丹斯里李深靜
改善營運積極轉型

Top Rated Buys To Watch Out For In 2014

03 JANUARY 2014
Top Rated Buys To Watch Out For In 2014
By Ong Qiuying and Nicholas Tan

Despite a turbulent ride last year, all of us are stepping ahead into the New Year with renewed hopes to find bright spots and opportunities in 2014! Before we jump right into the stock picks with top-rated buys, let us look into some of the major themes that would be surrounding the global markets in the coming year.

Pacific Radiance - Firing up growth engines (DBSV)

Pacific Radiance Ltd -
BUY S$0.875
STI : 3,174.65
(Initiate Coverage)
Price Target : 12-Month S$ 1.05
Firing up growth engines

• Established offshore support vessel (OSV) owner/ operator with plans to go big
• Will benefit from ongoing recovery in OSV market and presence, through joint ventures, in markets protected by cabotage laws
• Expect the Group to register strong 29% net profit CAGR over FY12-15 period
• Initiate coverage with BUY rating and S$1.05 TP

Yoma Strategic Holdings Will Yoma hit a new Landmark? (CIMB)

Yoma Strategic Holdings
Current S$0.77
Target S$0.75
Will Yoma hit a new Landmark?

▊ Yoma’s outlook has benefited enormously from Myanmar’s opening-up. The immediate catalyst ahead would be the potential completion of the Landmark development acquisition. In light of the upcoming 2015 elections in Myanmar, political uncertainty is a key risk. Yoma’s share price today reflects a full RNAV of its existing assets. Further upside from here depends on the company sealing the Landmark deal. We initiate coverage on this Myanmar proxy with a reduce rating and a target price of S$0.75 (based on 1x FY15 RNAV excl. Landmark). Clinching of Landmark will add $0.09 to our RNAV.

Frasers Centrepoint Trust : Growing with confidence (DBSV)

Frasers Centrepoint Trust
BUY S$1.76
STI : 3,167.43
Price Target : 12-Month S$ 2.14
Growing with confidence

• Acquisition of Changi City Point a positive catalyst
• Stable portfolio earnings
• Attractive yields; BUY, TP S$2.14

Acquisition of Changi City Point to propel earnings further. Changi City Point (CCP) is the largest dedicated retail outlet in Changi Business Park with 200k sf of NLA.

CDL Hospitality Trusts : Turnaround in RevPAR (DBSV)

CDL Hospitality Trusts
BUY S$1.64
STI : 3,167.43
Price Target : 12-Month S$ 1.84
Turnaround in RevPAR

• RevPAR outlook brightens in 2014
• Acquisition-driven catalysts and upside to earnings
• BUY, TP of S$1.84 maintained

Sequential improvements in RevPAR from 4Q13. Given the year-end peak season, we expect CDL Hospitality Trusts (CDREIT) to post sequentially stronger revenues from 4Q13.

曾淵滄專欄 06.01.14:認購新股有數得計

今年第二個交易日,恒指暴跌522點,但是市場上倒沒出現恐慌氣氛,不少股民趁低吸納。可惜股民想趁低吸納的,都是近期熱炒的股,而不是傳統藍籌股,因此只能看着恒指一路跌下去,剩下那些炒期指的人在鬥法。

淡友大獲全勝,挾好倉挾死好友,也許太多股民想趁低吸納熱門股,結果多隻熱門股逆市上升,還包括唯一一隻逆市上升的恒指成份股銀娛(027)。近日我多次推介的中國信達(1359)繼續上升,嘉里物流(636)也開始起動,值得追入。

Suntec REIT : Earnings turning around (DBSV)

Suntec REIT
BUY S$1.54
STI : 3,167.43
Price Target : 12-Month S$1.80
Earnings turning around

• Remaking of Suntec City enters its final phase
• Office leasing continues to improve
• Australia acquisition to be accretive; BUY, TP S$1.80

Remaking of Suntec City Mall enters the final phase. 2014 will mark the start of Suntec City’s planned remaking of its Mall. Previous phases are seeing positive results : (i) Operations of tenants at phase 1 of the mall continue to improve, with full occupancy rates; (ii) Pre-commitment rates for phase 2 of Suntec Mall is on the rise, with c.83.5% of the space already taken up in 3Q13. While still early days (the manager will be starting phase 3 of the AEI in 1Q14), when completed by end of 2014, Suntec City Mall will attract higher footfalls, given the upcoming completion of South Beach and other transport conveniences.

Sunday, January 5, 2014

李嘉誠再賣大陸資產,華人首富看到房市泡沫警訊?



霸菱及施罗德均对新加坡股市缺乏信心

霸菱及施罗德均对新加坡股市缺乏信心
文: 彭博社 (译:麦美莹) 2014年01月03日 展望
虽然新加坡的股票在东南亚是最便宜,但施罗德(Schroders)及霸菱资产管理 (Baring Asset Management)却避之则吉,原因是区域的经济增长放缓及美国联储局的刺激措施退市将会令资金外流。

受到房地产业不景气及利率可能提高的影响,基金经理预期新加坡的房地产股将会领跌。在发达国家中,海峡时报指数是2013年表现最差的市场。自从联储局主席伯南克在2013年5月表示如果美国复苏取得稳定进展可能会缩减购债后,海指蒙受高达9.5%跌幅。

2013年心水股:第四季度回顾

2013年心水股:第四季度回顾
文: 王秋莹 , 陈挚文 2014年01月03日 展望
新加坡股市在2013年经历了大起大落。在回顾2013年的财经大事时,我们自然会有许多疑问。2013年心水股在最后一季的表现如何?市场在2014年会有怎样的变化?投资者的下一步棋该怎么走?本期我们回顾了投资专家及《股市资讯》团队选出的心水股在第四季的表现,并整理了分析师对2014年前景的看法,以解答上述几个问题。

回顾2013年,新加坡股市的表现在一定程度上落后于区域其他股市。海峡时报指数(STI)在5月份上升至5年来的高位后,在下半年开始滑落,原因是美国联邦储备局“退市”的时机令人捉摸不定。各地股市的主要指数在第四季都出现“圣诞老人升浪(Santa Claus Rally)”,创下多年来的高位,但海指只能力保不失,而小型股大跌导致许多投资者离场观望。

曾淵滄-股市资讯专栏 03.01.2014 -美联储出人意料地缩减购债

美联储出人意料地缩减购债
文: 曾渊沧博士 2014年01月03日 曾渊沧博士专栏
本文写在2013年的最后第2天,目前海峡时报指数竟然比去年年终还低了0.4%,表现竟然差过香港。香港恒生指数上周末收市,仍然较2012年年终高出2.6%,算是聊胜于无。美国道琼斯工商指数就真是世界无敌,至今比去年年底高出25.7%。香港股无力大升,很明显是受累于中国A股的表现。目前上海综合指数比去年年终低7.6%。

新加坡也被中国A股影响,同时也受邻国印尼、泰国、马来西亚等国拖累。新加坡股市今年一度追随美股而升势不错,海峡时报指数一度高见3,464点,与2007年的历史高位3,906点只有11%的距离。但是,当美国于今年5月发出退市讯号后,东南亚诸国及其他新兴工业国就出现严重的资金外流现象,股市与货币汇率一起下跌,导致迄今为止的2013年,新加坡股市竟然跑输香港。投资者当然不能完全无视东南亚新兴国家面对的问题。1997年亚洲金融风暴,也是从东南亚开始的。当时泰铢遭国际大鳄击垮,许多人仍然不知大祸即将临头,依然幸灾乐祸地以事不关己的心态观看这场货币狙击战。

Airlines - The Great Malaysian Fare War is Ending (MKE)

Airlines - The Great Malaysian Fare War is Ending

Value has emerged. The airlines sub-sector has underperformed the KLCI in 2013 with an average decline of 15.8% versus a 10.5% increase in the KLCI, due to depressed earnings and deteriorating competitive environment. The industry is gradually improving and we are optimistic on the more balanced capacity deployment plans in 2014. We forecast earnings recovery to MYR652.7m in 2014, versus a loss of MYR361.1m in 2013. This underpins our Overweight stance. Our top pick is AirAsia X, followed by AirAsia. We have upgraded MAS to a HOLD (from SELL); since our downgrade in 19 Nov 2013, the share price has been down 10.1% and it is now close to our target price.

More Business Trusts, REITs expected to list in S'pore next year


《老謝看世界》專訪瑞信亞洲區首席經濟分析師 陶冬



《投資頻道》 曹仁超:明年恒指樂觀上望3萬1



Warren E. Buffett(沃伦•巴菲特)
Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful
别人贪婪时我恐惧, 别人恐惧时我贪婪
投资只需学好两门课: 一,是如何给企业估值,二,是如何看待股市波动
吉姆·罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)
“错过时机”胜于“搞错对象”:不会全军覆没!”
做自己熟悉的事,等到发现大好机会才投钱下去

乔治·索罗斯(George Soros)

“犯错误并没有什么好羞耻的,只有知错不改才是耻辱。”

如果操作过量,即使对市场判断正确,仍会一败涂地。

李驰(中国巴菲特)
高估期间, 卖对, 不卖也对, 买是错的。
低估期间, 买对, 不买也是对, 卖是错的。

Tan Teng Boo


There’s no such thing as defensive stocks.Every stock can be defensive depending on what price you pay for it and what value you get,
冷眼(冯时能)投资概念
“买股票就是买公司的股份,买股份就是与陌生人合股做生意”。
合股做生意,则公司股份的业绩高于一切,而股票的价值决定于盈利。
价值是本,价格是末,故公司比股市重要百倍。
曹仁超-香港股神/港股明灯
1.有智慧,不如趁势
2.止损不止盈
成功者所以成功,是因为不怕失败!失败者所以失败,是失败后不再尝试!
曾淵滄-散户明灯
每逢灾难就是机会,而是在灾难发生时贱价买股票,然后放在一边,耐性地等灾难结束
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