Saturday, January 4, 2014

2013 Stock Picks: 4th Quarter Review

| 03 JANUARY 2014
2013 Stock Picks: 4th Quarter Review
By Ong Qiuying and Nicholas Tan

2013 has indeed been a year of ups and downs for the Singapore market. As the year draws to a close, many questions come to mind as we review the happenings of 2013. How have we performed in the last lap of the race this quarter? What tidings will 2014 bring? What should be the next move for investors? Let us put some answers to these questions as we round up the performance of the stock picks of 2013 by the market experts and the Shares Investment team in 4Q13 and take a peek into the crystal ball with analysts on the outlook in 2014.

Malaysian Airlines -No Clear Strategy Just Yet (MEK)

Malaysian Airlines
Current price (MYR):0.31
Target price (MYR):0.29
No Clear Strategy Just Yet

Subdued 2013. MAS’ 9M13 core net losses widened by 53.6% YoY to MYR766.7m due to weak yields. MAS has deployed 17% capacity growth in 9M13, which was a massive oversupply to the market. This has forced it to drop its yields by an average of 12.8% in 2013-YTD, in order to fill up its seats and also gain market share.

AirAsia X - Unrivalled Growth Prospects (MKE)

AirAsia X
Current price (MYR): 0.995
Target price (MYR):1.30
Unrivalled Growth Prospects

Smooth sailing. AirAsia X’s 9M13 core net profit of MYR35.4m, from a core loss of MYR30.0m in 9M12, was slightly better than our expectations. Management is doing a good job in filling up the aircraft, maintaining decent yields and keeping unit cost under control. It has also successfully shielded itself from the fare war that is plaguing the domestic sector.

AirAsia -Cheap Relative to Peers (MKE)

AirAsia
Current price (MYR): 2.20
Target price (MYR): 2.80
Cheap Relative to Peers

Over punished, stock offers value. AirAsia’s 9M13 core net profit was down by 15.5% YoY due to the intensifying competition across the board. The share price has fallen 19.7% in 2013. We think this is overdone and the stock is in deep value compared to global peers based on PER and adjusted EV/EBITDAR metrics.

China Unicom : Interconnect savings to outweigh higher handset subsidies and broadband price cuts (CS)

China Unicom Hong Kong Ltd
Maintain OUTPERFORM
Price (27 Dec 13 , HK$) 11.70
TP (prev. TP HK$) 19.10 (18.20)
Interconnect savings to outweigh higher handset subsidies and broadband price cuts

● The introduction of an asymmetrical interconnect regime, under which Unicom will pay Rmb0.04/min to China Mobile but still receive Rmb0.06/min will raise FY14 EBITDA by circa Rmb4.9 bn.

● Against this, while we would not over-exaggerate the impact of China Mobile’s launch of the iPhone in itself, the expectation of a higher total handset subsidy budget from China Mobile leads us to raise our gross Unicom subsidy forecast by Rmb2.1 bn and our cellular capex forecast by Rmb7.9 bn as competition intensifies.

曾淵滄教路 01.01.2014 -兵荒馬亂市 風險管理三大要素

兵荒馬亂市 風險管理三大要素
近一段日子,中國金融市場出現接二連三的錢荒現象,銀行拆息利率數度高達年利率10厘以上,兵荒馬亂,A股急跌,其中國企銀行股面對的壓力最大,導致國企銀行股股價相對便宜,不少內銀股PB值不足一倍,從價值投資的角度來看,是值得買的。

不過,股市裏有句名言,即「低處不算低」,許多價值投資者往往以撈底的心態買一些他們認為是超值股,但是,股市的發展往往並不如其願,的的確確會經常發生低處不算低的事,今天你認為是超值的股,明天也許會更超值,即股價再往下跌。

2014年大市預測



Friday, January 3, 2014

Dr ChanYanChong-Commentary 03.01.2014 -Fed Drops Bombshell In Unexpected Tapering Act

03 JANUARY 2014
Fed Drops Bombshell In Unexpected Tapering Act
By Dr Chan Yan Chong

This article is written over the last two days of 2013, during which the Straits Times Index ended the year 0.4 percent lower than its year-end level last year, faring even worse than Hong Kong. The Hang Seng Index closed last weekend 2.6 percent higher than end-2012, a modest performance which is better than nothing. Dow Jones Industrial Average was unassailable, closing the year 25.7 percent higher than the end of last year. Hong Kong stocks struggled to find their momentum as they are obviously weighed down by the performance of Chinese A-shares. The Shanghai Composite Index is currently 7.6 percent lower than last year-end. Singapore is also affected by Chinese A-shares, as well as the performance of its neighbours like Indonesia, Thailand and Malaysia.

施永青估一手跌價20%

【本報訊】美國退市,今年香港樓市風雲色變,樓市專家幾乎清一色睇淡今年樓市,其中中原創辦人施永青昨日接受電台訪問,維持一手下跌15%至20%的論調。有測量師亦認同一手樓價跌,其中新界區供應較多,跌幅可達兩成,但市區供應有限,料僅跌一成。

中原集團創辦人施永青表示,大部份發展商去年銷售未能達標,為求追數,將犧牲價格,預計一手樓價今年將下調15%至20%。雖然美國退市,但2015年前不會加息,而且本港經濟持續增長,失業率低企,預料整體樓價不會大跌。他又指,本港樓市成交量偏低,預料今年樓市難出現小陽春。

嶺大經濟系主任何濼生表示,市民睇淡樓市,置業信心下跌,同時預期加息,相信二手業主要割價才有望沽出。一手方面,發展商要資金回籠,惟有減價促銷。但今次樓市下調不會像97年般跌得急,而會陰乾式下跌,整體樓價未來兩年跌三成。

Frasers Commercial Trust : Hidden value (DBSV)

Frasers Commercial Trust
BUY S$1.27
STI : 3,167.43
Price Target : 12-Month S$ 1.46
Hidden value

• Operationally resilient, organic growth in FY14
• Expiry of master lease at Alexandra Technopark to reap significant earnings upside
• Maintain BUY and S$1.46 TP

Operationally resilient, organic growth in FY14. Performance, ex-divestments, continues to strengthen - 4Q13 net property income would have shown an increase of 7%, supported by resilient portfolio occupancy of 97.9%. FCOT’s rental income is also supported by a long weighted average lease expiry of 4.6 years. In FY14, the trust will be renewing close to 8.5% of its topline, of where expiring rents are c.10-15% lower than market rents in Singapore and 30% lower in Australia.

CapitaRetail China Trust : Growth Drivers in place (DBSV)

CapitaRetail China Trust
BUY S$1.33
STI : 3,167.43
Price Target : 12-month S$ 1.60
Growth Drivers in place

• Growth engines humming in tune
• Inorganic drivers in place; highest DPU CAGR of 9.0%
• BUYm TP S$1.60

Growth engines humming in tune. The coming two years could be transformational for CRCT. After refining its portfolio tenant mix and the completion of various asset enhancements, CRCT’s mall portfolio is consistently seeing strong shopper traffic and tenant sales,

Vard Holdings: Closing The Year With a Big Order Win (DMG)

Vard Holdings: Closing The Year With a Big Order Win
 (NEUTRAL, SGD0.81, SGD0.85)

VARD’s latest order lifts its 2013 new order wins to NOK13.4bn and unbilled orderbook to NOK21bn. The win reflects the strong underlying demand for OSVs and specialised offshore vessels.

However, we maintain NEUTRAL on VARD, as its Brazilian operations will remain a drag on overall margins, while its 9.3x FY14F P/E valuation is not as appealing as other OSV shipbuilders.

Nam Cheong: Every Good Story Has Its Twists (DMG)

Nam Cheong: Every Good Story Has Its Twists
(BUY, SGD0.315, SGD0.45)

As expected, NCL announced a series of contract wins bringing FY13’s total vessels sold to 24 – a new record. The surprising twist was that the expected PSV was not among the sales – replaced by a MWV and three AHTS vessels for a combined USD66m in value. The PSV’s delivery schedule has been amended at customer’s requests.

曾淵滄專欄 03.01.14:中港齊炒股不炒市

2014年第一日交易日,港股紅盤高收,可喜可賀。昨日紅盤高開之後不久,港股就隨內地股市下跌,幸好A股其後跌勢收窄,恒指才開始反彈,下午三時A股收市後,恒指再一舉而上,反跌為升。不過,A股下跌指的是傳統A股,即是上證綜指的成份股,主要是一些高市值的傳統企業股。

內地創業板大旺
同是A股的創業板股份,其升勢則相當不錯,昨日創業板指數上漲2.2%,說明內地也與香港一樣,出現了炒股不炒市的兩極化現象。創業板熱炒,說明市場並不缺錢,只是錢流向不同的股,散戶喜歡短炒,不必理會股價的上升有沒有實質的基本因素。

Singapore REITs - Adjusting to the new normal (DBSV)

Singapore REITs - Adjusting to the new normal

• S-REITs to face rising cost of capital
• Prefer S-REITs with organic growth due to feweracquisition opportunities
• BUY Suntec, CDREIT, CRCT, FCT and FCOT

S-REITs faced with rising cost of capital
We interpret theFED’s decision to begin tapering its monthly bond-buying programand at the same time keeping short-term interest rates low as asignal that “taper” and “rate hikes” are not synonymous events.As such, the yield curve will continue to remain steep, with rateson the longer-tenure 10-year bonds to remain elevated onexpectations of rising inflation.

Thursday, January 2, 2014

戰勝2014股市篇‧馬股再下一城

戰勝2014股市篇‧馬股再下一城
Created 12/31/2013 - 17:00
馬股在2013年漲跌之間仍取得不錯戰績,綜指更漲升逾10%。大藍籌的帶動下,散戶偏愛的小型股也抬頭,特別是輪流炒活動中也頗有斬獲,大小股表現仍標青。

就連卡在中間的中型股,也取得同樣幅度的升幅,選擇性及素質良好的中型股也唱丰收,整體表現也可圈可點。

進入決勝2014年,在2013年失去賺幅機會的馬股投資者/投機者,仍然有機會反敗為勝,因股市分析專家認為,在新的一年裡,跡象顯示目前落在偏高的綜指,在2014年杪仍有能力再創新高峰,甚至有望突破2,000點大關。

AirAsia - Time For Bottom Fishing (RHB)

AirAsia -
Time For Bottom Fishing

We  find  the  sharp  selldown  on  AIRA’s  shares  excessive  as  we  see  a positive  FY14  earnings  outlook,  bolstered  by  easing  competition  and cost efficiencies kicking in once KLIA2 opens for operation. Hence, we maintain our BUY call and MYR3.70 FV, based on a 12x target FY14 P/E. At the current FY14 P/E of 7.1x, we view the stock as a bargain.

STI Highlights Of 2013

31 DECEMBER 2013
STI Highlights Of 2013

Because of their sheer size, the 30 companies of the STI make up more than half of the market capitalisation of Singapore’s stock market. Like the stock market, these companies are diverse in terms of their geographical reach, relevant business sectors and the years that they have been serving us with products and services.

During the year, the STI held most of the relative strong gains of 2012 and had generated a total return of 2.6 percent as of the close on 27 December, 2013.

戰勝2014經濟篇‧大馬須防兩大風險

戰勝2014經濟篇‧大馬須防兩大風險
Created 12/30/2013 - 16:57
歐債危機再見!財政懸崖再見!全球經濟即將在2014年迎來自金融海嘯以來的最美好時光。

全球投資大行,從高盛到大摩,以至本地證券行,全都成了“大好友”,一致唱好2014年的經濟前景,深信在先進國領軍之下,全球經濟將重新踏上繁花似錦的陽光大道。

在2014年,一切看起來很美,但是我們仍須留意在轉角遇到風險――最有可能在前方攔路的兩大風險,將是美國聯儲局QE退場引發的動盪,以及通膨惡魔蠢蠢欲動,衝擊消費信心。

Experts’ Take: 2014 Singapore Stock Market Outlook

31 DECEMBER 2013
Experts’ Take: 2014 Singapore Stock Market Outlook
By Charlie Lau Suan Liat

The 2014 Stock Market Outlook for Singapore looks at best to be sustained around the closing of Straits Times Index on 31 December 2013 at 3,167 points.

That is to say the Singapore market could be fundamentally firm in 2014 maintaining the Straits Times Price Earning Premium of 13.47x as at 27 December 2013. Investors and funds must be sharp to pick stocks with forward looking business potential, especially from overseas.

曾淵滄專欄 02.01.14:強勢股繼續做龍頭

新一年應該是步步為營的一年,美股在2013年創歷史新高,而且一路向上升,究竟還能升多久呢?美股一旦爆破,必定會連累全世界。中國人民銀行一直不放水,其中一個可能性,就是為美股暴瀉作準備,壓住股市,不讓股市跟隨美股瘋狂上升。另一個可能性,乃是逐步消化2008年4萬億元基建帶來的一些問題。中共十八大三中全會,的確為股市帶來許多有利的因素,但是既得利益者眾多,改革的難度不應該被低估。舉個例子,三中全會要求政企分家,可是今時今日,不少中共幹部頭戴兩頂帽子,又當局長又當總經理,倘若要政企分離,豈不是幹部與企業總經理這兩頂帽只能選一頂嗎?他們的利益自然會受損。

Shipping - Surf On The Rates Momentum (RHB)

Shipping - Surf On The Rates Momentum
We are NEUTRAL on shipping. The rate upswing across all segments in 2013 presents trading opportunities. The dry bulk sector’s valuation has somewhat  priced  in  optimism  of  a  recovery  while  we  see  tankers eventually  catching  up,  although  caution  is  advocated  due  to  the weaker macro prospects. We prefer MISC for its diversified exposure.

Wednesday, January 1, 2014

柔佛產業恐供應過剩

柔佛產業恐供應過剩
Created 12/30/2013 - 16:59
(吉隆坡30日訊)國內產業界近期遭政府打房利空籠罩,產業股表現低迷,豐隆研究為此南下考察柔佛產業市場,並與主要發展商會面,結果發現柔州產業市場未來或出現供應過剩憂慮,展望無法令人振奮。

豐隆發現,新加坡產業買家目前最關心的課題,無非最新推出的海外買家100萬令吉最低購價條例,以及3至4%的潛在徵稅額,主要因這些措施將直接衝擊產業購買能力,反觀產業盈利稅則不會。

澳洲集团为勇敢的投资者带来“捞底”的机会

澳洲集团为勇敢的投资者带来“捞底”的机会
文: 陈挚文 (译:杨佳文) 2013年12月30日 技术分析
为澳洲商品领域提供专业工程服务的澳洲集团(AusGroup)继续面对压力,原因是采矿业活动减少及超支问题使其1Q14毛利率及净利率为负数。

侨丰-德意志摩根建富(OSK-DMG)表示,澳洲集团的毛利率为负数,表示它每天都在亏钱,这使其财务状况承受重压。我们怀疑,这可能已导致它违反了贷款契约,必须偿还优先债务及2014年1月中到期的所有银行担保。这因此使其截至2013年9月30日的现金减少至790万澳元。

曹仁超:港股明年初仍处安全区 看好医药股

曹仁超:港股明年初仍处安全区 看好医药股

12月18日消息,据香港信报报道,众多行业之中,《信报》首席顾问曹仁超较为看好医药股,认为该行业于2014年前景非常亮丽,“随着人口老化,中国14亿人口,只要占到1%市占率,就相当于1400万人的生意,this is another dream.”但他提醒投资者,在选股方面需要较为审慎。其中尤以一些销售专科药物如心脏、糖尿、血压等高技术医疗企业,较值得看高一线。

“不要再以为持有内银股便可以发达,这些时候已过去。”他重申,并非不看好银行股,只是任何企业都有周期,银行业便踏入成熟型尾段,业务可发展空间已不大。

Axis REIT - Disposal of Axis Plaza (Kenanga)

Axis REIT -
Disposal of Axis Plaza

News  Axis REIT announced the proposed disposal of Axis Plaza, for a total cash consideration of RM34.0m which is at a slight premium to the appraised value of Axis Plaza of RM32m. Net disposal gain is RM11m vs. the investment cost of RM22.5m and estimated disposal expense of RM0.5m.

Freight Management - Gaining Strength

Freight Management -
Target Price: MYR2.00
Price: MYR1.61
Gaining Strength

Freight Management  (FMH)  kick-started  FY14 with  a  commendable net profit of MYR5.3m (+9.7% y-o-y),  which  was  within our and consensus estimates.  All  its  business  divisions  reported  earnings  growth  except the  tugs  &  barges  segment.  The  company’s  expansion  plans  are making  good  progress.  Maintain  BUY  call,  with  FV  revised  upward  to MYR2.00 from MYR1.68.

Retail REITs: New shopping centres add buzz, but where can investors find bargains?

Retail REITs: New shopping centres add buzz, but where can investors find bargains?

Written by Michelle Teo  
Monday, 16 December 2013 14:36
There’s a palpable buzz at the eastern and western ends of Singapore in the weeks leading up to Christmas as two major shopping centres — Bedok Mall and Westgate in Jurong East — opened their doors to the seasonal retail rush. Catering to the suburban sprawl that has developed at the far ends of the island, the malls were teeming with people right after opening on Dec 3, even though not all shops were in business yet.

Bedok Mall is a 50:50 venture between CapitaLand and CapitaMalls Asia (CMA), its 65%-owned unit that develops malls across the region. Westgate is also another CapitaLand group development — a 50:30:20 venture by CMA, CapitaMall Trust (CMT) and CapitaLand.

Daibochi - Strong demand and property boost in 3Q (CIMB)

Daibochi Plastic & Packaging -
Current RM3.65
Target RM4.19
Strong demand and property boost in 3Q

At an annualised 98% of our FY13 forecast, Daibochi's 9MFY13 EPS was in line with market and our expectations as we expect a stronger 4Q. The strong export demand and lower crude oil prices in the past 1-2 months are positive factors for the company.

We maintain our FY14-16 EPS forecasts but raise our target price as we roll forward to end-2015, applying 13x CY15 P/E, our sector P/E target. We upgrade Daibochi from a Neutral to Outperform in view of likely lower raw material price risks after the recent sharp fall in crude oil prices. Securing major export orders and further declines in oil prices could catalyse the stock. Daibochi is our top pick in the packaging sector.

Tuesday, December 31, 2013

Outlook 2014 A year of two halves

Outlook 2014 A year of two halves
Business & Markets 2013
Written by Francis Eng, Chief Investment Officer, UOB Asset Management (Malaysia) Bhd    
Monday, 30 December 2013 16:26

WE believe 2014 could be a year of two halves with a more challenging first half due to quantitative easing (QE) tapering and a better second half as global growth momentum continues. We expect QE tapering to commence in the first quarter.

Recall in 2013 that when tapering expectations increased, there was an outflow of funds from emerging markets to developed markets and this caused the former, including Asia, to weaken. During the period of tapering fears from May to September 2013, Asean markets, such as  Indonesia, Thailand and the Philippines, bore the brunt of the selldown while Malaysia was relatively flat.

Outlook 2014 Better outlook for Malaysian equities

Outlook 2014 Better outlook for Malaysian equities
Business & Markets 2013
Written by Yvonne Tan, Chief Investment Officer, Equities, Eastspring Investments Bhd    
Monday, 30 December 2013 16:25

WE expect the Malaysian economy to grow between 5% and 5.5% in 2014, driven by steady growth in domestic demand. Private investment will continue to grow at a double-digit pace, supported by the ongoing Economic Transformation Programme.

We also expect decent export recovery next year. The global economic outlook is improving with the US economy showing good signs of recovery, for example improving employment numbers. The US housing market, which forms a large part of consumption spending, has been rising with strengthening house prices. House inventory levels are hovering near 11-year lows. As for Europe, although recovery is weak, the worst is most likely behind it. We are looking at around 1% growth for the eurozone next year.

回顾与展望:马来西亚经济与股市在2014年的前景

回顾与展望:马来西亚经济与股市在2014年的前景
文: 杨佳文 2013年12月30日 展望
2013年即将结束,这一年下来,马来西亚经济和股市的表现如何?步入2014年,又有哪些国内外因素值得留意?本文整理了一些分析报告的重点,希望对正在制定2014年投资计划的读者有帮助。

AusGroup Presents Bottom-Fishing Opportunity For The Bold

AusGroup Presents Bottom-Fishing Opportunity For The Bold
By Nicholas Tan

Beleaguered specialist engineering service provider to Australia’s commodity industry, AusGroup, continues to be under pressure as it reported negative 1Q14 gross and net profit margins, resulting from the downturn in mining activity and cost overrun issues.

According to OSK-DMG, the negative margins position means that AusGroup is burning cash daily, which is causing further pressure on its embattled balance sheet. We suspect the negative margins might have caused it to breach lending covenants, thus triggering the repayment of senior debt and the need to provide full cash back of all bank guarantees on issue expiring in mid-January 2014. Thus, dwindling its net cash position as at 30 September 2013 to A$7.9 million.

賈納林甘:歡迎聯營方式投資西港

賈納林甘:歡迎聯營方式投資西港
Created 12/29/2013 - 19:38
大馬億萬富豪賈納林甘指出,開放船務客戶在西港(WPRTS,5246,主板貿服組)碼頭投資,以便西港擴大港口貨運量時,可協助他們保留業務。

西港創辦人兼主席賈納林甘說:“我們不會出售港口的股權,不過,歡迎有興趣者以聯營方式投資西港,好處是可留下客戶。”

擬耗資20億再建3集裝箱碼頭現年69歲的賈納林甘說,西港在大馬巴生港口經營6個集裝箱碼頭,準備耗資大約20億令吉,另外興建3個以擴大容量。

曾淵滄專欄31.12.2013:藍籌走勢嚴重兩極

今年轉眼就要過去,回顧全年股市,的確應驗許多股評人所說的應該炒股不炒市。2013年至今,恒指微升,去年底的升勢,在今年初延續了一段短時間,之後就反覆下跌至6月的谷底,然後再回升。

不過,恒指成份股的走勢與恒指相若者竟然不多,有一路上升者,如騰訊(700)、銀娛(027)、金沙(1928)、和黃(013)、友邦(1299)及恒安(1044)。這類股的走勢有如美股,勢不可擋,與二、三線的當炒股比較並不遜色,騰訊、銀娛、金沙是整個網股板塊及賭股板塊的上升,不論藍籌或二、三線股皆升。

戰勝2014‧奮力迎戰‧危中求勝

戰勝2014‧奮力迎戰‧危中求勝
Created 12/29/2013 - 19:00
燃油價格剛剛調漲,踏入2014年,電費也將調漲10至20%不等,企業營運成本提高恐侵蝕盈利,人民的可支配收入受飆高的通膨而“縮水”、消費能力受挫恐拖累內需。

美國緩減購債,追逐美元資產的結果,勢使馬幣備受打壓,弱勢馬幣等各種利空侵襲企業,2014年對大馬企業乍看是極其嚴峻一年。

然而,與其坐以待斃,各企業需運籌帷幄,加強營運效益、調控成本,或者採納生產自動化措施,才能在極其嚴峻營運環境中“衝出重圍”。

Monday, December 30, 2013

CNMC Goldmine Ventures Into Tin Mining As Tin Price Rises

CNMC Goldmine Ventures Into Tin Mining As Tin Price Rises
Written by Leong Chan Teik (http://www.nextinsight.net/)
Saturday, 28 December 2013 12:06

TINPRICE_12.13Source: http://www.lme.com/


ABOVE IS THE price movement of tin in the past two years. Since July 2013, the metal has been recovering -- from just above US$19,000 per tonne to almost US$23,000 currently.

HEALTHWAY MEDICAL: Stronger Now With New Specialists, And Reorganisation

HEALTHWAY MEDICAL: Stronger Now With New Specialists, And Reorganisation
Written by Leong Chan Teik (www.nextinsight.net/)
Friday, 27 December 2013

HEALTHWAY MEDICAL CORPORATION is one of the largest private medical groups in Singapore. Its primary healthcare division has been doing nicely but the specialist and wellness division reported a EBTDA (earnings before tax, depreciation & amortisation) loss of $3.8 million on revenue of $29.6 million in 2012, as disclosed in the annual report.

Going forward, a narrowing of the loss, and certainly a profit, in the specialist division would have a strong impact on Healthway's bottomline.

Nam Cheong - Anticipating a New Year’s Gift (DMG)

Nam Cheong -
Target Price: SGD0.45
Price: SGD0.29
Anticipating a New Year’s Gift

We anticipate NCL announcing a series of orders to close off FY13. We also take this opportunity to roll our valuation over to 10x FY14F P/E for a SGD0.45 TP (from SGD0.41). It remains a Top Pick in the oil & gas (O&G) sector with its strong 24% earnings growth and undemanding 6.7x FY14F P/E, supported by an expected dividend increase to yield 3.0-4.2% over FY13-15F.

胡立阳:2014年美股究将何去何从

胡立阳:2014年美股究将何去何从
[摘要]其实,当股市已涨过头,就要小心任何会导致物极必反的变数。无论经济是好是坏,都会带来的麻烦,2014年的美股,时时刻刻都会令投资人胆战心惊

QE温和减码,道指再创历史新高,2013的美股即将风光落幕。投资人在喝着香槟庆祝的同时,却不免急着想问:“那2014年呢?”

目前,大多数人都说,QE退场就是代表美国经济正在好转,未来股市行情应该是仍然值得期待。真是这样的吗?依我看,华尔街股市此刻已经走在了“只能对,不能错”的高空钢索上,2014年只要有一点风吹草动,道指必将大跌,投资人过去赚到的钱都可能“加倍奉还”。

曾淵滄專欄 30.12.13:東南亞有難香港濕滯

本年只剩下最後兩天,恒指上周末收市,仍然較2012年年終高出2.6%,算是聊勝於無。美國道指就真是世界無敵,至今比去年年底高出25.7%。港股無力大升,很明顯是受累於內地A股的表現,目前上證綜指比去年年終低7.4%。

另一個更有趣的地方是新加坡,目前海峽時報指數竟然比去年年終還低0.6%,表現竟然差過香港。可以肯定,香港受累於內地A股,新加坡也被A股影響,同時也受其鄰國印尼、泰國、馬來西亞……等國拖累,新加坡股市今年一度追隨美股而升勢不錯,海峽時報指數一度高見3464點,與2007年的歷史高位3906點只有11%的距離。但是,當美國於今年5月發出退市訊號後,東南亞諸國及其他新興工業國就出現嚴重的資金外流現象,股市與貨幣匯率一起下跌,導致迄今為止的2013年,新加坡股市竟然跑輸港股。

XMH Holdings : New acquisition offsets weak Indonesian sales (NRA)

XMH Holdings
Current Price S$0.34
Fair Value S$0.45
New acquisition offsets weak Indonesian sales

Earnings below expectations. 2Q14 net profit of S$2.0m was 40% below our expectations, mainly due to lower-than-expected revenues from its distribution business segment and higher-than-expected SG&A expenses.

 Lower forecasts and fair value but maintain Overweight. Given the lower-than-expected earnings, we slightly revise our full year forecast 5% lower due to higher operating cost but keep FY15-16 relatively unchanged.

Sunday, December 29, 2013

买方卖方皆关注 2014房事

买方卖方皆关注 2014房事
Created 12/27/2013 - 13:00
在重重降温政策下,分析界大多看淡我国明年的房产市场,业界人士也坦承明年价格升幅料持平。在这样的情况下,是否意味着我国房市将从“卖方市场”,转向“买家市场”(buyers'market)?

2014年,会是怎样的一年?买房自居或投资前,做好功课是必然的,这期我们评点了6项最值得你关注的房市大事。

2014年最关切的房事

富时海峡时报中型股指数预估股息十大

富时海峡时报中型股指数预估股息十大
(译:朱爱伦) 2013年12月26日 展望
富时海峡时报中型股(FTSE ST Mid Cap)指数包含50只成份股,包括五只海峡时报指数(STI)候补股。这50只股在截至2013年11月底的平均市值为22亿元。

富时海峡时报中型股指数的成份股是来自ICB行业分类标准下十个行业中的九个。按加权比例计算,指数中最大的行业为金融,主要是由于指数包含了16个房地产投资信托(REIT)和两只以装订形式上市的地产投资股。该指数的特点之一是其成份股多元化,其中的REIT便是在亚洲各地投资于不同种类的地产物业。

Analysts see huge potential in China’s mobile e-commerce market


Changi Airport Group, CapitaMalls Asia to jointly develop Project Jewel


Singapore’s beauty, personal care market grows to US$1.46b in 2013


Impasse over Indonesia's ore export ban


Press Metal - Off To a Great Start (RHB)

Press Metal -
Target Price: MYR3.79
Price: MYR2.25
Off To a Great Start

Press’  management  remains  concerned  over  depressed  aluminium prices,  although  we  are  impressed  with  its  potential  143.6%  y-o-y earning surge in FY14 despite our lower price assumptions. We are also excited  by  its  strategic  asset  swap,  PMB’s  commissioning,  Mukah plant’s  re-commissioning,  and  its  landmark  deal  with  Sumitomo. Maintain BUY, with a lower MYR3.79 FV (from MYR3.82).

Sunway - Accumulating Landbank In Penang (RHB)

Sunway -
Target Price: MYR3.33
Price: MYR2.64
Accumulating Landbank In Penang

We raise our FV on Sunway to MYR3.33  (from MYR3.30)  due to  its  new land  acquisition  in  Penang.  The  land  will  be  developed  into  a  mix  of commercial  shops  and  high-rises  worth  a  GDV  of  MYR1.5bn. Meanwhile, Sunway will likely hit MYR1.8bn  in  sales for FY13.  Its sales target  for  next  year  will  be  at  the  same  level,  and  we  think  this  is achievable given its pipeline of projects. Maintain BUY.
Warren E. Buffett(沃伦•巴菲特)
Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful
别人贪婪时我恐惧, 别人恐惧时我贪婪
投资只需学好两门课: 一,是如何给企业估值,二,是如何看待股市波动
吉姆·罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)
“错过时机”胜于“搞错对象”:不会全军覆没!”
做自己熟悉的事,等到发现大好机会才投钱下去

乔治·索罗斯(George Soros)

“犯错误并没有什么好羞耻的,只有知错不改才是耻辱。”

如果操作过量,即使对市场判断正确,仍会一败涂地。

李驰(中国巴菲特)
高估期间, 卖对, 不卖也对, 买是错的。
低估期间, 买对, 不买也是对, 卖是错的。

Tan Teng Boo


There’s no such thing as defensive stocks.Every stock can be defensive depending on what price you pay for it and what value you get,
冷眼(冯时能)投资概念
“买股票就是买公司的股份,买股份就是与陌生人合股做生意”。
合股做生意,则公司股份的业绩高于一切,而股票的价值决定于盈利。
价值是本,价格是末,故公司比股市重要百倍。
曹仁超-香港股神/港股明灯
1.有智慧,不如趁势
2.止损不止盈
成功者所以成功,是因为不怕失败!失败者所以失败,是失败后不再尝试!
曾淵滄-散户明灯
每逢灾难就是机会,而是在灾难发生时贱价买股票,然后放在一边,耐性地等灾难结束
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