Saturday, December 14, 2013

野村:QE退場‧馬股脆弱

野村:QE退場‧馬股脆弱
Created 12/13/2013 - 11:08
(吉隆坡12日訊)野村證券(Nomura)研究的脆弱指數反映,馬股是美國量化寬鬆(QE)政策退場時,最脆弱的股市之一。

同時,基於馬股估值已高,超過15倍且較同儕長期平均值高出10至12%,已顯著反映大馬財政改革措施的利好,馬股明年潛在上揚幅度只是“低雙位數”。

野村全球股票策略主管葛文高在野村2014年股市展望的匯報會中表示,馬股的基本面平平,主要利好已反映,投資者未來可能難圖利。

Is this a good time to invest in hospitality stocks?


Sunway REIT : Not so sunny in 2014 (CIMB)

Sunway REIT
Current RM1.25
Target RM1.33
Not so sunny in 2014

The macroeconomic outlook for REITs is not particularly favourable in 2014 due to a potential rise in interest rates. Furthermore, we believe that Sunway REIT's NPI for FY6/14 and 1HFY6/15 will be negatively affected by its AEI for Sunway Putra Place.

Our DDM-based target price is reduced to RM1.33 after we increased our cost of equity to 9.7% (from 9.6%). Under our revised rating structure, our recommendation changes from Neutral to Hold. We believe that investor sentiment on M-REITs as a whole has waned due to the more positive market outlook. Furthermore, the risk of higher interest rates in 2014 will make the returns on REITs less attractive.

Star Publications : Star will get brighter (CIMB)

Star Publications
Current RM2.43
Target RM2.54
Star will get brighter

Despite its poor earnings performance due to an unavoidably weak print business, we believe Star is heading in the right direction. Most importantly, revenue from its digital platforms is improving.

We cut our FY14-15 EPS as we now believe its new businesses will take longer to turn profitable. Our target price dips accordingly, still set at 12.5x CY15 P/E (20% discount to our market target). Under our new rating structure, Star is a Hold (previously Neutral). Dividend yields of about 5% should compensate for its poor earnings while investors wait for its new businesses to bear fruit.

Pavilion REIT : No excitement in this pavilion (CIMB)

Pavilion REIT
Current RM1.30
Target RM1.31
No excitement in this pavilion

We expect Pavilion’s net property income (NPI) in 2014 to be driven by 2013’s rental reversions for 67% of its net lettable area (NLA). Higher earnings growth could come from new asset injections, but none are foreseen in the near-term horizon.

Our DDM-based target price is lowered to RM1.31 (from RM1.46) following adjustments to our cost of equity assumptions from 8.4% to 9.1%. Given the risk of higher interest rates in 2014, we think returns on REITs in general would be subdued. With the change in our recommendation structure, Pavilion REIT is now a Hold from a Neutral previously.

Muhibbah : Getting its mojo back (CIMB)

Muhibbah Engineering
Current RM2.38
Target RM3.05
Getting its mojo back

After turning in the best stock performance in our universe in 2013, Muhibbah still offers the most attractive turnaround prospects among the smaller-cap contractors in 2014. Its prospects are backed by oil & gas infrastructure & marine/port-related work, as well as a fabrication licence from Petronas.

Our target price remains based on a 30% discount to RNAV, using a 15.9x CY15 construction P/E, which is in line with the construction sector's 5-year average. A strong order-book recovery and further newsflow from the oil & gas sector should provide catalysts. Following a change in our rating structure, our rating for Muhibbah changes from Outperform to Add.

Malaysian Bulk Carriers : Sailing with the wind (CIMB)

Malaysian Bulk Carriers
Current RM1.79
Target RM2.01
Sailing with the wind

Bulk losses have generally narrowed over the recent quarters as the bulk rates have gradually improved amid slowing bulk carrier supply growth. We expect profits to rise in 2014 due to smaller bulk losses and stronger offshore earnings.

Under our new rating structure, our Outperform call on Maybulk changes to Add. Our forecasts and SOP-based target price are maintained. Share price rerating catalysts include the expected narrowing of dry bulk losses over the medium term as freight rates recover on the back of a slower pace of newbuilding deliveries.

KLCC Property Holdings : Softer earnings outlook (CIMB)

KLCC Property Holdings
Current RM6.03
Target RM6.10
Softer earnings outlook

KLCCP’s net property income (NPI) growth is likely to be subdued as new asset injections are unlikely any time soon. However, 2014 willsee its net profit boosted by lower tax rates as its stapled structure takes full effect.

Our DDM-based target price is reduced to RM6.10 (from RM6.90 previously) as we increase our cost of equity assumption to 8% from 7.3% previously. Due to the change in our rating structure KLCCP is now a Hold (from Neutral previously). For exposure to Malaysian property, we prefer the country‘s property developers instead.

CapitaMalls Malaysia Trust : In need of catalysts (CIMB)

CapitaMalls Malaysia Trust
Current RM1.39
Target RM1.47
In need of catalysts

We believe that CMMT's net property income (NPI) will be impacted by the weak performance of its Sg. Wang mall due to the ongoing MRT construction works. However, we anticipate that the AEI for the East Coast Mall will provide a buffer to its NPI.

Our DDM target price drops to RM1.47 from RM1.74 previously, due to the rise in cost of equity to 9.2% (from 9% previously). Due to the change in our rating structure, our call changes from Neutral to Hold. We believe that the lack of acquisitions to strengthen its NPI and the risk of rising interest rates in 2014 could weigh on CMMT's share price performance. For exposure to Malaysian property, we suggest investors switch to the property developers.

Benalec : Tanjung Piai is the wild card (CIMB)

Benalec Holdings
Current RM1.02
Target RM1.05
Tanjung Piai is the wild card

The Tanjung Piai maiden reclamation contract is still Benalec's wild card in 2014 as it would pave the way for a mega reclamation deal (1,000 acres) for an oil & gas terminal. However, the limited progress indicates that there could be delays.

We cut RNAV to factor in further delays in the new land reclamation for the Tanjung Piai project. This lowers our target price, still pegged to a 50% RNAV discount. Benalec‘s FY14 earnings outlook hinges on the signing of the SPA for the Tanjung Piai reclamation project expected by end-2013. Under our new rating structure, our call changes from Neutral to Hold. Switch to Muhibbah Engineering.

Ann Joo Resources : The going remains tough (CIMB)

Ann Joo Resources
Current RM1.08
Target RM1.11
The going remains tough

Domestic demand for steel products should remain buoyant in 2014, but macro risks, forex losses and the threat of imports are likely to continue to weigh on Ann Joo's prospects. New policies to curb dumping from China could help, but that has yet to materialise.

Our target price falls as we apply a lower CY15 target P/E of 8.6x (11.1x earlier), pegged to a 40% discount to its 10-year historical average. Dumping is likely to continue and the persisting global concerns may curtail its exports. The recent electricity tariff hike presents medium-term cost risks. Under our new rating structure, our call changes to Hold from Neutral. We recommend a switch to contractors.

AirAsia X : Wrestling with competition (CIMB)

AirAsia X Bhd
Current RM1.04
Target RM1.11
Wrestling with competition

MAS is keeping up the pressure on AAX as it injects more capacity on a number of the routes that both carriers serve. Base yields are, therefore, likely to dip in 2014. AAX will have to bank on an improving ancillary yield to pick up the slack, which is far from certain.

Under our new rating structure, our Neutral call changes to Hold. Our target price is unchanged and is based on the sector average of 11x CY15 P/E. Base yields are likely to fall next year as competition on the KL-Australia route heats up. AAX's earnings are highly sensitive to yield changes so further yield weakness will dampen its growth sharply. We prefer MAHB.

AirAsia : Unrelenting yield pressure (CIMB)

AirAsia Bhd
Current RM2.41
Target RM2.55
Unrelenting yield pressure

The level of competition in the marketplace remains fierce, resulting in a disappointing 3Q13. We expect yield pressure to remain a prevalent feature in 2014 as MAS and Malindo continue to be overly ambitious with their capacity expansion.

Under our new rating structure, our Neutral call changes to Hold. Our target price remains based on 11x CY15 P/E, the sector average. Yield pressure will persist in 2014 as MAS is intent on defending its market share, leading to pedestrian group earnings growth in FY14-15 as Malaysia earnings fall, only to be offset by better associate earnings. Still, AirAsia remains the best in the field, given its low cost structure. Switch to MAHB.

Navigating Malaysia 2014:ETP progress report card (CIMB)

Navigating Malaysia 2014

ETP progress report card
The Economic Transformation Programme (ETP) was a key market catalyst even before it was officially rolled out in Sep2010.Threeyears have since passed and we analyse in this research its impact on the key winning sectors -oil & gas, construction and property.

As ETP has been well executed thus far, it will continue to be the key catalyst for the broader market. We introduce our new end-2014 KLCI target of 2,030pts, which is based on bottom-up targets for individual stocks rather than the top-down approach previously. Our sector preferences remain the ETP winners as well as companies in the small- to mid-cap space.

Friday, December 13, 2013

大馬散裝貨運缺重估催化劑

大馬散裝貨運缺重估催化劑
Created 12/12/2013 - 10:55
(吉隆坡11日訊)大馬散裝貨運(MAYBULK,5077,主板貿服組)年初至今股價攀升超過32%,雖然興業研究對該公司的復甦進度感到正面,惟業務仍缺乏重估催化劑。

興業預見該公司2014財政年盈利現金將顯著改善,因為營運盈利料從今年的400萬令吉,大漲至3千830萬令吉。不過,由於減值走高及即將接收新船艦,預計運輸業務2014財政年仍蒙受200萬令吉虧損,惟與今年2千850萬令吉虧損相比,仍取得大幅改善。

Silverlake : Order please! (CIMB)

Silverlake Axis Ltd
Current S$0.84
Target S$0.95
Order please!

The key short-term catalyst will be the much-anticipated order from a bank in Malaysia. Balance sheet remains strong to support potential acquisitions. Longer term, Silverlake Axis itself could become a takeover target.

The immediate catalyst for Silverlake Axis is a potential RM200-300m order win. If successful, this will add to the earnings growth over the next two to three years. Earlier newsflow on the possibility of a listing of its Chinese associate is another potential catalyst. Our DCF-based target price is S$0.95 (WACC 7.5%). Under our new rating structure, our recommendation changes from Outperform to Add.

Sheng Siong Group : Chugging along (CIMB)

Sheng Siong Group
Current S$0.62
Target S$0.77
Chugging along

FY14 should continue to see earnings growth that is led by contributions from new stores and margin expansion. Sheng Siong's mature stores are facing sales declines at the moment, but this is mainly due to temporary factors.

Under our new rating structure, our call changes from Outperform to Add. Our earnings estimates are intact, while our target price rises as we roll it over to CY15, still based on 23x P/E (10% discount to Dairy Farm). Catalysts include better earnings delivery led by new stores and margin expansion.

Religare Health Trust : Expanding organically and through acquisitions (CIMB)

Religare Health Trust
Current S$0.80
Target S$0.93
Expanding organically and through acquisitions

RHT’s organic growth is led by built-in service fee escalations and the ramping up of Gurgaon’s operations. Its near-term acquisition pipeline is visible, with Mohali at the top of the list. Forward yield remains high among S-REITs/business trusts, as forex concern lingers.

We fine-tune our FY13-15 DPS and maintain our DDM-based target price of S$0.93 (based on 11.7% discount rate). Under the new rating structure, our rating changes from Outperform to Add, with catalysts from yield-accretive acquisitions and surprise on earnings delivery.

Perennial China Retail Trust : Execution is key (CIMB)

Perennial China Retail Trust
Current S$0.54
Target S$0.57
Execution is key

Management’s execution ability will be the key in FY14, with the earn-out set to expire at the end of 2014. There will be greater interest rate risk as PCRT makes progress payments. Potential divestments could help unlock value and recycle capital.

We maintain our target price of S$0.57, which is based on a 20% discount to RNAV. Under our new rating structure, our rating changes from Neutral to Hold. We will revisit the stock if the gestation period is shorter than expected.

Parkson Retail Asia : Good value (CIMB)

Parkson Retail Asia
Current S$1.03
Target S$1.51
Good value

We view Parkson’s share price as cheap and believe that its Malaysian operations will benefit from a stronger 2HFY6/14. However, investors hoping for corporate actions may be disappointed in FY14 as the company has no such immediate plans.

Nevertheless, we retain our positive view as Parkson‟s share price has yet to react to the recovering profitability of its Malaysian operations. Our call changes from Outperform to Add under our new rating structure. We maintain our target price, which is based on 20x CY15 P/E, in line with its regional peers. The stock, which is trading at 14x CY15 P/E, may be catalysed by improving profitability for its Malaysian operations.

Pan-United : Consistently good (CIMB)

Pan-United Corp
Current S$0.97
Target S$1.13
Consistently good

Raising its stake in CXP, a major port operator in eastern China, was probably PUC’s best decision in recent times to lock in its longer-run prospects. We expect strong performances going forward, anchored by its core basic building resources (BBR) segment.

Our residual-income-derived target price climbs as we incorporate its higher stake in CXP. Under our revised rating structure, our rating has been changed from Outperform to Add. Catalysts could come from earnings contributions from very chunky MRT projects in the BBR segment and an improved earnings profile led by CXP.

Midas Holdings : No more speed bumps (CIMB)

Midas Holdings
Current S$0.50
Target S$0.74
No more speed bumps

The overall operating environment has become more positive for Midas and we expect investor sentiment to improve. We anticipate that order momentum will rise in 2014, starting with a potential high-speed rail (HSR) contract and an international metro contract in 1Q14.

Our rating changes from Outperform to Add, as per our new rating structure. Investors should add the stock to their portfolios before the consensus re-rating after the next HSR contract is won. Our target price remains unchanged at S$0.74, based on 1.29x CY14 P/BV (20% below the FY10-11 mean). The key catalyst is the HSR order wins.

Mapletree Commercial Trust : Growth engine sputters (CIMB)

Mapletree Commercial Trust
Current S$1.22
Target S$1.28
Growth engine sputters

MCT’s portfolio growth continues to be underpinned by positive rental reversions in VivoCity. However, as the current market sentiment is not conducive for major AEIs and M&A, we expect MCT’s mid-term growth to be limited to organic growth only.

With the recent c.4% correction in share price, coupled with i) a resilient portfolio, ii) only 1.6% of retail leases up for renewal in FY14 and 16% in FY15, and iii) a high portfolio occupancy rate of 98.9%, we have maintained a Hold call on Mapletree Commercial Trust (MCT), as per our revised rating structure. We maintain our DDM-based (discount rate: 7.9%) target price of S$1.28.

曾淵滄專欄 13.12.13:如何防止美股爆煲

美股再因憂慮聯儲局退市下跌,自然影響港股表現。下星期二至三,即12月17日及18日,是聯儲局再次議息的日子。聯儲局始終要退市,只是不知道何時,每一次聯儲局開會,市場就會炒作退市憂慮,股市也會相應調整,這也好,可以壓住美股急升的機會。急升的結果自然是爆煲,讓美股上升一輪之後,適當調整一下,然後再上漲,總好過像坐火箭般飛升。美股急升,港股因受制於A股,也無法跟着急升,美股急升之後爆了煲,港股就一定會跟着下跌,壓抑美股的升勢,就是令美股延遲爆煲的最佳行動。

M1 Limited : Broadband boost (CIMB)

M1 Limited
Current S$3.26
Target S$4.10
Broadband boost

We like M1 because of the rapid take-up of tiered data plans which helps it monetise the surging usage of mobile data, strong growth in fixed broadband and a likely special dividend at end-FY13. Unlike its peers, M1 is unaffected by stiff competition in pay TV.

However, roaming revenues are under pressure due to declining usage of voice and data roaming and falling inter-operator termination rates. We expect a special DPS of 4 cts at end-FY13 given its low net debt/EBITDA of only 0.5x. Our call changes from Outperform to Add under our new rating structure. Likely re-rating catalysts are strong earnings growth and special dividend payouts. Our DCF-based target price is $4.10.

Keppel REIT : Stable but higher risk (CIMB)

Keppel REIT
Current S$1.18
Target S$1.25
Stable but higher risk

Although we like KREIT for the growth potential of its portfolio amid the recovering office market, its high asset leverage, coupled with a possible loss of income support from its existing properties, dampens the positivity.

As Keppel REIT (KREIT) continues to grow its presence in Australia (currently accounting for c.17% of total NPI), we factor in the risk premium of the Australian market into our model. As a result, our DDM-based (discount rate: 8.6%) target price is lowered slightly to S$1.25. Under our revised rating structure, our call has changed from Neutral to Hold.

Thursday, December 12, 2013

Healthcare Sector: Expecting growth in 2014 (OCBC)

Healthcare Sector:
Expecting growth in 2014

Despite continued macroeconomic uncertainties in 2013, quality healthcare companies such as Raffles Medical Group (RMG), IHH Healthcare Berhad and Riverstone managed to showcase their resilience and defensive qualities with their robust financial performance. Nevertheless, not all healthcare companies enjoyed similar success stories in 2013, as Biosensors International Group (BIG) disappointed with a sharp 1HFY14 earnings dip.

Mapletree Industrial Trust : Growing at a slower pace (CIMB)

Mapletree Industrial Trust
Current S$1.35
Target S$1.48
Growing at a slower pace

Positive rental reversions and asset enhancements have mitigated the drop in occupancy rates at The Signature. Although headline yields continue to be attractive, we will wait for clarity on the future backfilling at The Signature and meaningful growth catalysts before turning positive on the stock.

Positive rental reversions are likely to lead to stronger earnings, albeit at a slower pace. Under our new rating structure, our recommendation changes to Hold from Neutral. We maintain our earnings forecasts and DDM-based (discount rate: 8.1%) target price of S$1.48.

Keppel T&T : Building its core (CIMB)

Keppel T&T
Current S$1.56
Target S$1.92
Building its core

KPTT has historically relied on its 20% investment in M1 to drive the bulk of its earnings growth. However, this is changing as KPTT is aggressively expanding both its logistics and data centre segments, which will reduce its holding company discount to 10-15%.

We revise our stock rating to Add from Outperform following a change in our recommendation structure. Our SOP-based target price remains unchanged at S$1.92 (12.1x CY15 P/E for core earnings). Catalysts include the opening of new logistics warehouses and a third data centre.

Hyflux : In transition mode (CIMB)

Hyflux
Current S$1.18
Target S$1.20
In transition mode

HYF is not short of ambition and we particularly like its forward-looking strategy, which is sound and could bear fruit, albeit not immediately. However, we are cautious given a possible earnings slowdown in the early part of 2014 from project start-ups.

FY14 will test HYF‟s resolve in winning new orders. Our SOP-based target price is raised slightly to S$1.20 given WACC adjustments. Under our revised rating structure, our call is changed from Neutral to Hold. We believe a higher project win rate is needed for HYF‟s share price to re-rate.

Golden Agri-Resources : Most liquid proxy for CPO price (CIMB)

Golden Agri-Resources
Current S$0.58
Target S$0.60
Most liquid proxy for CPO price

Golden Agri stands out among the regional planters for its liquidity (the highest) and palm oil estate size (second largest). However, we feel that the stock is fairly valued at the current price level as its P/E is in line with its historical average P/E.

Furthermore, we expect the group's downstream expansion to take time to bear fruit. There is also a risk that the group may write down the value of its biological assets due to the lower CPO price, which may lead to weaker reported earnings and a higher gearing ratio. Under our new rating structure, our call changes from Neutral to Hold. We maintain our target price, based on 14x CY15 P/E (based on historical 5-yr avg).

Genting Singapore : Japan beckons while RWS is set for a strong earnings recovery (CIMB)

Genting Singapore
Current S$1.49
Target S$1.78
Japan beckons while RWS is set for a strong earnings recovery

Resorts World Sentosa (RWS) earnings have bottomed out in 2013 and we believe will stage a strong recovery in 4Q13 and 1Q14. Meanwhile Genting Singapore has positioned itself ahead of its peers in potentially capitalising on integrated resort (IR) opportunities in Japan.

No change to our EPS forecasts and RNAV-based target price. Key catalysts will come from upcoming results and positive newsflow from Japan. Under our new rating structure our call changes from Outperform to Add.

Genting Hong Kong : Straddling Asian and US leisure (CIMB)

Genting Hong Kong
Current US$0.42
Target US$0.60
Straddling Asian and US leisure

GENHK offers a unique exposure to both Asian and US leisure with its Asian cruise business, integrated resort (IR) investment in the Philippines and stake in Norwegian Cruise Lines (NCL). The stock is leveraged to Asian discretionary spending and the US recovery.

We maintain our EPS forecasts and our RNAV-based target price. Based on the breakdown of RNAV, the cruise businesses are worth US$0.50 per share which implies that its exposure to the Philippines, via its 45% stake in Travellers, is free. The expansion of NCL and Travellers's market cap is a key catalyst. Under our new rating structure our call is changed from Outperform to Add.

Fraser & Neave : Waiting for dust to settle (CIMB)

Fraser & Neave
Current S$5.72
Target S$7.22
Waiting for dust to settle

The tussle for Myanmar Brewery, potential overhang from the impending share placement and recent spat with bondholders have raised concerns. We believe that the bondholders dispute will be resolved soon, which will turn investors’ attention back to FNN’s embedded property value. Maintain Outperform.

Based on our estimates, FNN’s current share price implies a hefty 45% discount to its property RNAV, which is the largest among the big caps. We adjust our FY14-16 core EPS by -16% to 12% due to changes in sales recognition. As such, out target price, still based on a 20% discount to FNN’s property RNAV, is raised. Under our revised rating structure, our call changes from Outperform to Add.

Goodpack : More upside to come (CIMB)

Goodpack
Current S$1.93
Target S$2.23
More upside to come

Goodpack posted steady results in the last two quarters, recovering from a slowdown in the replacement tyre market. We believe that the positive trend will continue in 2014, with the expected earnings growth catalyst from the strong synthetic rubber demand in the short term.

In the longer term, we believe that Goodpack will have a breakthrough in the auto parts market, which will take its earnings to the next level. Under our new rating structure, our rating changes from Outperform to Add. Our target price remains unchanged at S$2.23, based on 15x FY15 P/E (historical average). The growing demand for synthetic rubber is the main short-term catalyst.

曾淵滄專欄 12.12.13:Bitcoin爆煲慘過軍票

恒指昨日下跌1.7%,H股指數更跌2.7%,兩者跌幅均比A股大,滬綜指只跌1.5%。大跌的藍籌股以中資金融股為主,特別是保險股,我相信只是有大戶,特別是外資大戶趁高套現罷了。以國壽(2628)為例,過去幾年股價一跌再跌,不少外資大戶都成了蟹戶,十八大三中全會後,國壽股價上升超過兩成,這些滿手蟹貨的大戶,就希望在年底埋單之前清理蟹貨,轉虧為盈。

恒指的跌幅超越A股,肯定是外資大戶清貨所造成的。外資大戶不沾手目前熱炒的三、四線股,儘管昨日恒指大跌406點,三、四線股依然熾熱,炒過一輪、兩輪,跌下去再翻生的股也不少,我相信參與的散戶也知道他們是在玩泡沫戰,看看誰能在泡沫爆破前離場。

First Resources : Our pick of the crops (CIMB)

First Resources
Current S$2.23
Target S$2.75
Our pick of the crops

First Resources is our top pick among the regional planters due to its superior operating efficiency over peers, strong FFB output growth prospects and attractive P/E valuations compared to peers. It is also expected to gain additional income from its refinery expansion in 2014.

We project that the group’s free cashflow will improve in FY14 due to the higher operating cashflow and lower capex spend. This could lead to better dividend payouts. Under our new rating structure, our rating changes from Outperform to Add. We maintain our S$2.75 target price, based on 12.3x CY14 P/E (1 s.d. above its  4-year mean). The re-rating catalysts are its strong FFB production and higher dividends.

Property & REITs 2014: Outlook beyond tapering (CIMB)

Property & REITs :
Outlook beyond tapering

Interest rates remain our key worry for 2014. While household balance sheets are sound, the uncertainty stems from how far interest rates can rise. Our property analyst, Donald Chua, estimates that the average mortgage-to-income ratio for private homes is currently 29%, significantly below figures during the last two peaks (2007: 40%, 1996: 48%). Median income, having risen by a 7% CAGR from 2010 to 2013, should still rise on tight unemployment. Housing demand has shifted to smaller units (average of 1,270sf in 2006 vs. 970sf now), so the holy trinity of higher wages, lower leverage and smaller houses should mitigate a crash in physical prices if interest rates spike. The bugbear beyond 2014 is supply; that is well-known. Physical completions are expected to jump in 2015. The URA expects the addition of 19.7k (2015) and 26.5k (2016) private units vs. an average 7.5k completion rate in the last 10 years. As immigration policy tightens and population growth stagnates at 2%, vacancy rates have started climbing (2Q13: 5.6%, 3Q13: 6.1%). We expect vacancy rates to peak at 7.0-7.5% and physical prices to decline by 15% by 2015.

Wednesday, December 11, 2013

Del Monte Pacific : Overzealous selling breeds buying opportunity (DBSV)

Del Monte Pacific
BUY S$0.60
STI : 3,081.72
(Upgrade from HOLD)
Price Target: 12-Month S$0.82 (Prev S$0.96)
Overzealous selling breeds buying opportunity

• Recent sell down looks overdone; may have more than priced in uncertainty of proposed acquisition
• US$970m of LIBOR-based loans firmed up at lowerthan- expected interest rates
• Upgrade to BUY, TP revised to S$0.82 factoring in higher risk profile
• Risks: Rise in interest rates, higher-than-expected equity raising, performance of acquired entity

Frasers Commercial Trust : Continues to strengthen (CIMB)

Frasers Commercial Trust
Current S$1.25
Target S$1.39
Continues to strengthen

Frasers Commercial Trust (FCOT) ended FY13 with a stellar set of results. We expect it to continue to grow organically in FY14 as some of its leases are at below-market rates and the outlook for the office market is positive.

As FCOT continues to expand its presence in Australia (currently accounting for c.53% of its total NPI), we factor in the risk premium of the Australian market into our model. As a result, our DDM-based (discount rate: 8.9%) target price falls to S$1.39. Under our revised rating structure, our recommendation changes from Outperform to Add.

Frasers Centrepoint Trust : The engine continues to chug (CIMB)

Frasers Centrepoint Trust
Current S$1.79
Target S$2.05
The engine continues to chug

FCT ended FY13 on a strong note with record high distribution, largely contributed from Causeway Point and Northpoint. We expect FCT to continue to grow via rental reversions and the potentially yield-accretive acquisition of Changi City Point.

We maintain our DPU estimates and DDM-based (discount rate: 8.4%) target price of S$2.05. Under our new rating structure, we change our rating to Add from Outperform previously. We continue to see catalysts from positive rental reversions from two of its largest malls in its portfolio and a potentially yield-accretive acquisition.

Eu Yan Sang : When Australia turns around (CIMB)

Eu Yan Sang Int'l Ltd
Current S$0.82
Target S$0.89
When Australia turns around

The eventual return to a breakeven position in Australia will improve group profitability. At the same time, a joint venture with Sichuan Neautus gives EYS access to quality herbs and the capacity expansion plan will support increased demand into the next decade.

The key catalyst for Eu Yan Sang is the reduction in losses at its Australian operations. Australia is expected to lower the group‟s earnings by S$5.8m in FY14 before achieving breakeven in FY15. Rolling forward to CY15 earnings, we raise our target price to S$0.89 (based on 16.3x P/E, 0.5 s.d. above the five-year historical average). Under our revised structure, our rating changes from Neutral to Add.

Del Monte Pacific : Feather in the cap, if they deliver (CIMB)

Del Monte Pacific
Current S$0.67
Target S$1.14
Feather in the cap, if they deliver

Better a brand owner than a commodity supplier. Ever since NutriAsia became the major shareholder, management’s efforts have been focused on growing branded sales. If executed well, the recentlyannounced acquisition of Del Monte Foods’s consumer food business (DMF) could well be the feather in the cap.

Del Monte Pacific (DMP) took a big step forward in realising its ambition of transforming into a global brand in CY13 with its intended acquisition of DMF. Into CY14, the share price will remain weak as more details regarding the proposed acquisition emerge. Under our revised rating structure, our rating changes from Outperform to Add. Our target price is based on 17.5x CY15 earnings (6-year average, post- acquisition).

CWT : Logistics to overcome margin pressure from trading (CIMB)

CWT Limited
Current S$1.27
Target S$1.49
Logistics to overcome margin pressure from trading

CWT’s trading segment has recently become barely profitable due to thinning margins from an already low base. However, we believe the earnings growth in the core logistics business has the potential to override the negatives from trading in FY14.

CWT‟s share price has de-rated significantly since the announcement of poor 3Q results and provides ample upside. We change our rating from Outperform to Add following a change in our recommendation structure. Our target price remains unchanged at S$1.49, based on 9.1x CY15 P/E (historical mean). Catalysts are recovery in commodities logistics and new warehouse additions in FY14-15.

CapitaMalls Asia : Yields heading north (CIMB)

CapitaMalls Asia
Current S$2.01
Target S$2.30
Yields heading north

We expect new malls in Singapore and higher property yields in China to power CMA’s earnings in the next 12-15 months. In China, we believe CMA is gradually building an edge over the local developers through its expertise in asset management. Portfolio yields, while still not optimal, are on a rising trend.

We keep our earnings estimates and target price, still on a 10% discount to RNAV. Under our revised rating structure, our call changes from Outperform to Add, with rental yield improvements and potential asset recycling being the catalysts.

CapitaLand : Going bottom-up (CIMB)

CapitaLand
Current S$3.02
Target S$3.96.
Going bottom-up

There is a shift in management style to one that is more bottom-up, with a focus on improving yields at the project level. ROEs may not improve immediately but we think CapLand is heading the right direction. The partial sale of ALZ could mark the resumption, albeit a gradual one, of CapLand’s restructuring plans.

We keep our earnings estimates and target price, still based on a 20% discount to RNAV. Under our revised rating structure, our call changes from Outperform to Add. The stock could be catalysed by more capital recycling and yield uplifts.

CapitaMall Trust : AEIs to buffer slower rents (CIMB)

CapitaMall Trust
Current S$1.94
Target S$2.06
AEIs to buffer slower rents

CMT’s existing portfolio is now almost fully occupied. Asset enhancement initiatives (AEIs) and the completion of Westgate will drive FY14-15 DPUs. These should help to offset a more moderate rental growth outlook, with retail sales and shopper traffic expected to stay flat.

We tweak our rental growth assumptions downwards and lower our longer-term DPU estimates by 1% (FY15 DPU down 0.4%). Our DDM-based target price (7.4% discount rate) is thus lowered. Under our new rating structure, our recommendation changes to Hold from Neutral. We see positive surprises in retail sales and accretive acquisitions as catalysts.

曾淵滄專欄 11.12.13:星洲騷亂港堪借鏡

今年12月8日晚上,新加坡發生44年來第一次騷亂。在新加坡,40歲以下的人沒見過騷亂,也沒見過遊行和罷工,但是罷工與騷亂就在前幾天出現。12月9日,新加坡股市平收,海峽時報指數幾乎沒變動;12月10日,海峽時報指數下跌0.87%,也不算是顯著下跌。相信投資者最關心的不是騷亂的破壞,而是新加坡政府會不會因這次騷亂而改變外勞政策。今年較早前的罷工事件,是中國來的巴士司機搞的,而這一次的騷亂,全是來自印度、孟加拉等南亞地區的外勞搞的。

Capitacommercial Trust : Proxy for bottoming office rents (CIMB)

Capitacommercial Trust
Current S$1.49
Target S$1.59
Proxy for bottoming office rents, but DPU upside capped for now

We are sanguine on the office sector for 2014 and think that rents have bottomed out. While CCT would be a natural proxy, the marginal 13% of portfolio space due for renewal and expiry of income supports could cap DPU upside. Leasing CapitaGreen at good rates will be key for the re-rating of the stock, in our view.

We lift our longer-term rent assumptions (marginal rise in FY14-15 DPU of 0.1-0.3%), leading to a rise in our DDM-based target price (7.6% discount rate). Under our new rating structure, our recommendation changes from Neutral to Hold.

Cosco Corporation : Retail stock? (CIMB)

Cosco Corporation
Current S$0.73
Target S$0.47
Retail stock?

We doubt that any institutional investors would get excited over Cosco’s impressive order wins of US$3bn YTD, as these may not translate into higher profitability given its patchy execution record.

After five consecutive quarters of provision write-backs, which offered hope that its operations might stabilise, Cosco‟s recent provision of S$49.7m in 3Q13 reminded us that redemption could still be a long way off. De-rating catalysts are expected from persistently weak execution. Under our new rating structure, our rating changes from Underperform to Reduce. Our target price remains based on 22x CY15 P/E (five-year mean).

Tuesday, December 10, 2013

價高市危‧馬股衝勁受限

價高市危‧馬股衝勁受限
Created 12/10/2013 - 17:27
(吉隆坡10日訊)美國QE(量化寬鬆)退場成馬股明年初主題,達證券直言,游資萎縮、升息和政府削減津貼料動搖估值已高的馬股勢頭,惟豐隆研究卻說,近期引發“價高市危”疑慮的馬股是區域中貝他第二低的市場,QE風險大減。

馬股即將步入新一年,分析員對馬股前景看法參差,達證券認為,政府削減津貼料降低市場的可支配收入並打擊商業數量和企業動搖盈利動力,除非盈利展望改善,否則馬股衝進有限,尤其相對股本回酬,馬股的本益比和估值已高。

S-REIT : Another volatile year as investors adjust to the higher interest rate environment (CS)

Property (REITs)
S-REITs kicked off 2013 with a strong start as investors look to the sector for growth + yield story. However, in May, the sector corrected sharply, falling some 20% on average within six weeks in light of the spike in US bond yields, as investors shied away from REITs due to less attractive yield spreads and concerns on higher borrowing costs' impact on profitability. Please refer to our earlier S-REITs report: Has the sector been oversold? Since the correction, selectively we have seen some slight recovery in the REITs, especially the liquid names, but still a far reach from its peak levels in April.

Cambridge Industrial Trust : Gaining strength (CIMB)

Cambridge Industrial Trust
Current S$0.70
Target S$0.79
Gaining strength

Proactive capital and risk management has put CIT in a stronger position than before. Given its robust balance sheet, we believe that CIT is well positioned to make acquisitions when the opportunity arises, while continuing to grow through AEIs.

In view of CIT‟s strong balance sheet and its potential to grow through AEIs and redevelopment projects, we rate it an Add under our new rating structure (previously Outperform). Our DDM-based (discount rate: 8.3%) target price stays at S$0.79.

Cache Logistics Trust : As stable as it gets (CIMB)

Cache Logistics Trust
Current S$1.14
Target S$1.33
As stable as it gets

Boasting 100% occupancy, low gearing, no debts to refinance until 2015, hardly any leases due to be renewed in 2014 and built-in rental escalation, CLT is viewed as one of the most defensive REITs in Singapore.

Given the support of its sponsor and its ROFR list of potential acquisition targets, we believe CLT is well positioned to grow through acquisitions and AEIs. Under our revised rating structure, our call has changed from Outperform to Add. Our DDM-based target price (discount rate: 7.8%) remains unchanged at S$1.33.

Biosensors Int'l : BIG belief leads to BIG value (CIMB)

Biosensors Int'l
Current S$0.95
Target S$1.19
BIG belief leads to BIG value

We see bright spots in Spectrum Dynamics’s instant success and the positives that regulatory approvals and new launches could bring. A change in its major shareholder from a strategic one to a value-driven one augurs well for BIG.

Under our revised rating structure, our call changes from Outperform to Add. Our EPS and SOP-based target price are unchanged. Our contrarian Add rating hinges on the instant success Spectrum Dynamics, product launches, regulatory approvals and M&A accretion. More importantly, new shareholder, CITIC, could seek to enhance its investment value through more active participation.

ASL Marine : Not resting on its laurels (CIMB)

ASL Marine
Current S$0.65
Target S$0.90
Not resting on its laurels

ASL is shifting its business model to speculative building, which offers customers convenience and flexibility. This makes sense in an improving OSV market.

Our FY14-16 forecasts and target price, still based on 0.9x CY14 P/BV, its 5-year mean, are unchanged. Under our new rating structure, our call changes from Outperform to Add. Catalysts could come from shipbuilding sales, faster turnaround of Vosta and big repair jobs.

Ascendas REIT : Growth limited by fee structure (CIMB)

Ascendas REIT
Current S$2.24
Target S$2.47
Growth limited by fee structure

With room for rental growth, asset enhancement and development, albeit at a slower rate than before, AREIT’s outlook remains strong. However, as its portfolio continues to grow, generous performance fees are expected to limit its long-term DPU growth.

Although we are expecting growth from asset-enhancement initiatives (AEI) and positive rental reversions, we keep our DPU estimates and DDM-based target price (discount rate: 7.2%). Under our new rating structure, our rating for AREIT changes from Neutral to Hold.

Asian Pay Television Trust : From income to growth (CIMB)

Asian Pay Television Trust
Current S$0.78
Target S$1.08
From income to growth

Taiwan licence re-zoning has so far been feared as a competitive threat. However, our analysis shows that a Taichung expansion will be hugely positive for TBC’s cash flow. Expansion will turn APTT into a high-yield growth play, which should catalyse current low valuations.

We expect APTT‟s expansion into greater Taichung this will lead to higher dividends from FY16 on. Maintain ADD with a higher target price, still based on DCF with COE of 11.0% (10.2% previously) and LTG of 1.0%. We think FY13-14 distributions will be unaffected by expansion and expect growth from FY16-18, resulting in 40% higher distributions. The prospect of growth should lead to a re-rating, in our view.

Ascott Residence Trust : Awaiting acquisition (CIMB)

Ascott Residence Trust
Current S$1.19
Target S$1.15
Awaiting acquisition

The AEIs and acquisitions that were completed in 2013 should contribute positively to FY14 earnings. Forex concern was slightly mitigated but remains a long-term issue due to ART’s wide geographical reach. ART’s current valuation of 0.94x FY14 P/BV is reasonable.

Our DDM-based target price (at discount rate of 8.5%) remains unchanged at S$1.15. Under our new rating structure, our rating changes from Neutral to Hold.

Navigating Singapore- Beyond the taper (CIMB)

SINGAPORE Beyond the taper
After five years of a rally built on QE, one has to be edgy on how an end to QE will change the game. Sure, Singapore does not have a gearing issue but corporate earnings have sputtered as domestic businesses grapple with rising costs and overseas growth slows.

In 2H13, the FSSTI failed to reclaim its May high as rate-sensitive sectors stumbled. A market selloff in 2014 is possible, but it is unconstructive to worry about and position for. The only way to outperform is to select companies bottom-up, looking for those with the right business models and products. Our end-2014 FSSTI target is 3,600, based 14.4x CY15 P/E. Our top picks include DBS, FR, GLP, KEP and WIL.

曾淵滄專欄 10.12.13:母公司分拆利股價

上市企業分拆旗下業務上市,是好事還是壞事呢?一般多屬好事,若是壞事,也不必多此一舉,正如和黃(013)一說要分拆屈臣氏、港燈上市,其股價就升上100元,成為紅底股;嘉里建設(683)在宣佈分拆嘉里物流(636)後,股價也回升。

反映資產真正價值
和黃分拆屈臣氏、港燈,可以讓市場清楚知道和黃資產的真正價值有多高,相信會遠高於賬面值。嘉里建設分拆嘉里物流,可以讓投資者看到物流業務的潛能,嘉里物流以遠高於母公司的PE值上市,說明市場對嘉里物流的憧憬。因此可以說,上市企業分拆旗下業務、子公司上市,往往是為了讓投資者更清楚地看到該子公司的價值及發展潛能。當然也有例外,但是不常見,那就是分拆時以較低的PE值、較低的PB值上市,但這代表該公司等錢用、資金供應緊張,不得不賤賣資產。

Genting Singapore : On A Rebound (DBSV)

Genting Singapore
BUY S$1.485
STI : 3,124.38
(Upgrade from Hold)
Price Target: 12-Month S$ 1.75 (Prev S$ 1.64)

• Earnings recovery from stronger tourist & MICE visitors and steady expansion in rolling chip
• Potential M&A and Japan gaming liberalization can be strong re-rating catalysts
• Valuation lagging behind regional peers. Upgrade to Buy with revised TP of S$1.75

Singapore Hospitality : A modest recovery (DBSV)

Singapore Hospitality
A modest recovery

•Visitor arrivals in 2014 to continue growing
•Modest improvement in operating metrics but upside to be capped by new hotel openings
•Top picks: Genting Singapore and CDREIT

Visitor arrivals to remain on an uptrend. At 10.5m visitor arrivals (+8.5% y-o-y) as of YTD 8M13, visitor arrival growth continue to exceed expectations. Looking ahead, we believe 2014 will continue to see higher visitorship given: (I) Robust outlook for travel within the ASEAN region, especially major visitor source markets of Indonesia, India and China (c.45% of total visitors), (ii) The expected pick-up in business activities and a healthy pipeline of MICE and major conferences in 1H14. As such, we expect visitor arrivals to grow 6.0% y-o-y to 16.3m in 2014.

Monday, December 9, 2013

一股作气:金群利估值低周息率诱人

一股作气:金群利估值低周息率诱人
Created 12/09/2013 - 15:36
进行中的2项城镇发展及科技谷,是金群利集团(MATRIX,5236,主板产业股)的增长动力。

同时,其它发展总值达到83亿令吉,足以支撑发展计划至2022年,大大提升营收可见度。

与同业相比,金群利估值不仅低于平均水平,且周息率约为平均水平的两倍,两个比率都相当诱人。

森州产业发展商金群利集团拥有两大城镇发展地库,即位于芙蓉的达城(Taman Sri Sendayan)和柔佛的居銮镇(Taman Sri Impian)。

電力成本上揚衝擊大‧工商業如何應對?

電力成本上揚衝擊大‧工商業如何應對?
Created 12/08/2013 - 19:00
政府9月上調油價的陰影未散,現又捎來了“電費漲價”的噩耗,這一漲唯恐引爆第二輪物價膨脹的連鎖效應,明年整體通膨率恐逼近4%。

若說政府上調電費帶來短時間的痛(通貨膨脹),卻有望捎來長期回報(財政赤字降低),那麼,除了普羅大眾,哪個領域才是這短痛的最大受害者?

Challenging time ahead with no all plain sailing for REITs

Updated: Monday December 9, 2013 MYT 6:48:10 AM
Challenging time ahead with no all plain sailing for REITs

PETALING JAYA: Although local real estate investment trust (REIT) players can breathe a sigh of relief as they have been spared from the rather tough budget measures on the property sector, the coast is not all clear for the 16 REITS just yet.

Malaysian REIT Managers Association chairman Datuk Stewart LaBrooy said industry players, especially those in the office sector, had to deal with an office market that was expected to remain challenging as supply continued to outstrip demand.

Religare Health Trust : Positive on growth, wary of forex (CIMB)

Religare Health Trust
Current S$0.79
Target S$0.93
Positive on growth, wary of forex

▊ We brought RHT on a non-deal roadshow in KL and investors were largely positive on the growth prospects and stability of the assets. Concerns continue to stem from forex exposure. RHT trades at c.10% FY14 yield and 1.0x P/BV. We maintain our DPU estimates and DDM-based target price (discount rate of 11.7%). Continue rating as Add with surprise in earnings deliveries and acquisition as catalysts.

Suntec REIT : Look For DPU Growth In FY14-15 (MKE)

Suntec REIT
Buy (unchanged)
Share price: SGD1.51
Target price: SGD1.75 (from SGD1.83)
Look For DPU Growth In FY14-15

First foray Down Under. Suntec REIT recently inked agreements to acquire 177-199 Pacific Highway, a piece of freehold land and property to be developed for a total consideration of AUD413.19m (~SGD490m). Pacific Highway is a 31-storey, Grade A state-of-the-art commercial tower, with an NLA of 423,915 sq ft and scheduled for completion in early 2016. The project is 100% pre-committed with the Leighton Group, one of Australia’s largest building, contracting and property development group, taking a head lease of 76% of the NLA and WALE of approximately 10 years.

Starhill Global REIT: Yearning For Growth (MKE)

Starhill Global REIT
HOLD (from Buy)
Share price: SGD0.77
Target price: SGD0.84 (from SGD 0.95)
Yearning For Growth

Fairly valued, cut to HOLD. We downgrade Starhill Global REIT (SGREIT) to HOLD on valuation grounds and lacklustre DPU growth prospects. The rejuvenation of Wisma Atria is coming to an end and it has already completed its Toshin master lease renewal at Ngee Ann City. Its Malaysia portfolio has also realised 7.2% rental reversion from the master tenant following the extension of the lease by another three years. We forecast an unexciting 0.6% DPU CAGR in 2013-2015. At 6.5% FY14F yield and 400bps yield spread, our DDM-based TP works out to SGD0.84 (previously SGD0.95).

Mapletree Logistics Trust : In Search Of Growth Drivers (MKE)

Mapletree Logistics Trust
SELL (from HOLD)
Share price: SGD1.045
Target price: SGD1.00 (from SGD1.13)
In Search Of Growth Drivers

Capital value at risk. We see industrial REITs facing major downside risks from the impending hike in interest rates and possible recalibration of over-inflated property prices – both of which can drag down NAV. The physical capital values of industrial properties have doubled in the past four years compared with only a 20-50% rise in the other segments. The price-rental mismatch has also proven to be the most staggering. With rentals currently are at an all-time high from 2008 peaks, we anticipate slower growth in FY14.

Keppel REIT: Expect Stable Distributions (MKE)

Keppel REIT
Hold (unchanged)
Share price: SGD1.165
Target price: SGD1.25 (from SGD1.15)
Expect Stable Distributions

FY14 to be slightly better. Keppel REIT (K-REIT) has 3.4% and 6.4% of portfolio NLA due for lease expiry and rent review, respectively. We expect marginal improvement in passing rents and occupancies in 2014, given that the next major Grade A office developments (CapitaGreen and South Beach Development) will come on-stream only in 4Q14.

CapitaMall Trust : Fairly Valued; Uninspiring Catalysts (MKE)

CapitaMall Trust
Hold (unchanged)
Share price: SGD1.88
Target price: SGD2.05 (from SGD2.10)
Fairly Valued; Uninspiring Catalysts

Fairly valued. We maintain our HOLD call on CapitaMall Trust (CMT) on valuation grounds and uninspiring DPU growth prospects as most of the eligible malls in its portfolio have already undergone asset enhancements (little boost to our DDM-derived TP). The known drivers now include (1) Bugis Junction, which will complete its SGD35m AEI (with incremental SGD3.1m NPI pa) by 3Q14, (2) Tampines Mall, with its SGD36m AEI (with incremental SGD2.9m NPI pa) to complete by 4Q15, and (3) active leasing of Westgate and Westgate Tower (30% stake) in 4Q13 and 4Q14, respectively. The two AEIs are relatively small and the increment in capital value (net of capex) is projected to be SGD22.1m and SGD16.4m, respectively, adding ~3 SGD cts to our RNAV. We forecast an unexciting 2.6% DPU CAGR in 2013-2016.

CapitaCommercial Trust: All Eyes on CapitaGreen (MKE)

CapitaCommercial Trust
Hold (unchanged)
Share price: SGD1.43
Target price: SGD1.50 (from SGD1.28)
All Eyes on CapitaGreen

Expect slightly better performance in FY14. CapitaCommercial Trust (CCT) has 13% of gross rental due for review and renewal in 2014. We expect marginal improvement in passing rents and occupancies for its existing portfolio in the new year, given that the next batch of sizeable Grade A office supply (CapitaGreen and South Beach) will come on-stream only in 4Q14. We forecast DPU CAGR of 2.6% over FY13F-FY15F.

CDL Hospitality Trusts : FY14 will be a better year for hospitality (MKE)

CDL Hospitality Trusts
Buy (unchanged)
Share price: SGD1.58
Target price: SGD1.75 (from SGD1.80)
FY14 will be a better year for hospitality

Valuation looks appealing. The share price of CDL Hospitality Trusts (CDHLT) has corrected by 19% since Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke’s congressional testimony on 22 May 2013. At the current price, it would seem earlier concerns about hotel oversupply and RevPAR declines have already been priced in. With the stock trading at a yield of 7.2%, we reiterate our BUY call and a revised TP of SGD1.75.

Cache Logistics Trust: Valuations look rich; Capital value at risk (MKE)

Cache Logistics Trust
SELL (from HOLD)
Share price:SGD1.105
Target price: SGD1.05 (from SGD1.25)
Valuations look rich; Capital value at risk.

Capital value at risk. We see industrial REITs facing major downside risks from the impending hike in interest rates and possible recalibration of over-inflated property prices – both of which can drag down NAV. The physical capital values of industrial properties have doubled in the past four years compared with only a 20-50%rise in the other segments. The price-rental mismatch has also proven to be the most staggering. With rentals currently at an all-time high from 2008 peaks, we anticipate slower growth in FY14.

曾淵滄專欄 09.12.13:短期走勢無法解釋

連跌五個交易日後,美股突然大幅反彈,道指重上16000點,有趣的是,前幾天美股調整期,市場的解釋是擔心聯儲局會提早退市,因為下星期就是聯儲局開會的日子,但上星期五美股急升,市場的解釋卻是美國經濟表現不錯,很莫名其妙;經濟表現不錯,聯儲局退市的機會也應該更高,為甚麼會股市上升呢?可見之前五個交易日美股調整,以及上周五美股反彈,市場上傳出的種種理由,全是為解釋而解釋、莫名其妙、自圓其說的理由,大家不必認真看待。專業的股市分析員之所以每日不得不提出一些理由來解釋股市升跌,其實是被傳媒逼出來的,因為傳媒天天追問分析員:「為甚麼今天升」或者「為甚麼今天跌」。

Ascendas REIT: Buffered From Downside (MKE)

Ascendas REIT
HOLD(unchanged)
Share price:SGD2.17
Target price:SGD2.30 (from SGD2.45)
Buffered From Downside

Capital value at risk. We see industrial REITs facing major downside risks from the impending hike in interest rates and possible recalibration of over-inflated property prices – both of which can drag down NAV. The physical capital values of industrial properties have doubled in the past four years compared with only a 20-50%rise in the other segments. The price-rental mismatch has also proven to be the most staggering. With rentals currently at an all-time high from 2008 peaks, we anticipate slower growth in FY14.

S-REITs - Not the time to bottom-fish yet (MKE)

S-REITs - Not the time to bottom-fish yet

Not the time to bottom-fish yet. The S-REITs sector has been a laggard in 2013 (-7.8% price return YTD), underperforming the STI by 6.4%. This is in stark contrast to its stellar performance in 2012 when the sector recorded a 41% price return and outperformed the STI by 20%. S-REITs currently trade at FY13F yields of 6.5% and FY14F yields of 6.7%, below their historical average of 7.0%. While the yields may seem attractive, we think it is too early to revisit the sector given the impending QE taper.

Entry point pegged at 7% yield. We would recommend investors to reconsider S-REITs when the sector average DPU yields touch 7% and above. This is pegged to a historical yield spread of 395bps and longer-term risk-free rate of 3.0-3.5% (currently 2.5%), and would imply further price downside of at least 8% for the whole sector.

S-REIT Gearing 2013-12-06 (MKE)



S-REIT Capital Management 2013-12-06 (MKE)



S-REIT Overview - 2013-12-06 (MKE)





Sunday, December 8, 2013

Smallcap-pedia - 2014 ideas (CIMB)

Smallcap-pedia
2014 ideas

In the big-cap space, companies have healthy balance sheets but their earnings have sputtered somewhat. We believe that the only way to outperform is to select companies using the bottom-up approach, identifying those with the right business models and products.

Del Monte - could it be a dark horse?
Expectations for Del Monte are low with its share price down 30% since the announcement of its acquisition of the consumer foods division of Del Monte Foods. If the company succeeds in integrating this acquisition, the current share price weakness could provide the perfect opportunity to initiate a position in this stock. Its share price could remain weak in the short term as further financial details emerge, with acquisition costs impacting the next two quarters' results.

S-REITS remain attractive investments despite gloomy outlook


Triple-E class vessel was named Mary Maersk


Medini Iskandar property buyers seem undeterred by impending property tax rules


CDL Hospitality Trusts: Another slice of paradise (DBSV)

CDL Hospitality Trusts:
BUY S$1.58
STI : 3,160.70
Price Target: 12-Month S$1.84 (Prev S$1.80)
Another slice of paradise;

•Second foray into Maldives
•Strong growth potential; yield on cost to reach a high of 7.7% by 2015
•Maintain BUY, TP S$1.84

Second foray into Maldives. CDL Hospitality Trust (CDREIT) announced its acquisition of Jumeirah Dhevanafushi, a 35-villa top-end luxury resort located in Maldives, for US$59.6m (S$74.8m). This is CDREIT’s 2nd acquisition in Maldives and will see its contribution increase to c.7.8% (vs. 4.6% previously) of FY14F net property income.

曾淵滄博士-股市资讯专栏 06.12.2013 -港股升至今年新高,值得留意

港股升至今年新高,值得留意
文: 曾渊沧博士 2013年12月06日 曾渊沧博士专栏
香港恒生指数终于创出今年的新高,可喜可贺。过去几个月,我多次告诉大家香港股市的估值相当低,不论本益比(PE)还是股价账面值比(PB)都低,大家应该乐观地看后市。还有,过去几个月里,香港股市三、四线股出现炒作。一般上大市如果无力往上升,三、四线股也无法维持这么长时间的炒作。现在总算等到恒指创今年新高的一天。下一个目标自然是创历史新高。恒指于2007年的历史高位跌下来之后,至今已经六年了,这么长的时间仍未创新高也确是少见。过去40年,恒指由一个高位到另一个高位,从来没有超过八年,最短的一次只有3年。现在让我们乐观地迎接未来的高位吧!

金河广场 蜕变典范

金河广场 蜕变典范
Created 12/06/2013 - 12:47
于1977年开业的金河广场被业者誉为吉隆坡市内购物中心的“常青树”,尽管历史悠久,但因与时并进不断“蜕变”,即使四周新购物中心不断增加,还能持续营运超过30年,屹立不倒。

购物者都知道金河广场总能找到走在潮流前端的货品,尤其深受年轻人爱戴,因适时加入适合购物者口味的新元素,是该购物中心常青的秘诀。

耗资3千万翻新

今年11月,金河广场完成了耗资3000万令吉的大型翻新计划,这项计划于去年11月开始,共耗时1年。

Sunway Bhd - Uncertainties Ahead (MKE)

Sunway Bhd -
Sell (unchanged)
Share price: MYR2.65
Target price: MYR2.52 (under review)
Uncertainties Ahead

Maintain SELL. Sunway’s 9M13 core net profit of MYR325.4m (+38% YoY) came in above expectations. Management has expressed caution over the property market outlook over the next 6 months following the new property cooling measures at Budget 2014 and it intends to switch its focus to commercial properties in the Klang Valley. We are reviewing our earnings forecasts and MYR2.52 TP (0.58x P/RNAV; MYR4.34 RNAV) pending further details on 2014 new launches.

MREITs - Changing Rates to Pose Challenges (Kenanga)

MREITs -
Changing Rates to Pose Challenges

MREITs are facing yet another bump in the road with DBKL recently announcing a hike in assessment rates, which could be as severe as 100%-300% depending on locations. This creates uncertainties for MREITs like KLCCSS, CMMT and SUNREIT as the hike in assessment rates in 1Q14 could present earnings risks; although the extent of the hike may be less severe than reported and will be determined by March 2014 post DBKL’s finalized hearings. We have increased our valuation yield spreads by +0.5ppt to account for this increased risk. To top it off, the 10-year MGS has crept up to 4.1% as of 30th October due to looming risk from QE tapering; hence, we increase our FY14E target 10-yr MGS to 4.15% (from 3.9%). We have downgraded our TPs by 4%-12% and our new CALLs/TPs are as followed; KLCCSS (UP; TP: RM5.41), SUNREIT (UP; TP: RM1.19), CMMT (MP; TP: RM1.41), AXREIT (MP; TP: RM3.28). Maintain UNDERWEIGHT on MREITs.
Warren E. Buffett(沃伦•巴菲特)
Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful
别人贪婪时我恐惧, 别人恐惧时我贪婪
投资只需学好两门课: 一,是如何给企业估值,二,是如何看待股市波动
吉姆·罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)
“错过时机”胜于“搞错对象”:不会全军覆没!”
做自己熟悉的事,等到发现大好机会才投钱下去

乔治·索罗斯(George Soros)

“犯错误并没有什么好羞耻的,只有知错不改才是耻辱。”

如果操作过量,即使对市场判断正确,仍会一败涂地。

李驰(中国巴菲特)
高估期间, 卖对, 不卖也对, 买是错的。
低估期间, 买对, 不买也是对, 卖是错的。

Tan Teng Boo


There’s no such thing as defensive stocks.Every stock can be defensive depending on what price you pay for it and what value you get,
冷眼(冯时能)投资概念
“买股票就是买公司的股份,买股份就是与陌生人合股做生意”。
合股做生意,则公司股份的业绩高于一切,而股票的价值决定于盈利。
价值是本,价格是末,故公司比股市重要百倍。
曹仁超-香港股神/港股明灯
1.有智慧,不如趁势
2.止损不止盈
成功者所以成功,是因为不怕失败!失败者所以失败,是失败后不再尝试!
曾淵滄-散户明灯
每逢灾难就是机会,而是在灾难发生时贱价买股票,然后放在一边,耐性地等灾难结束
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