Saturday, December 7, 2013

CDL Hospitality Trusts: Proposed acquisition of Jumeirah Dhevanafushi (OCBC)

CDL Hospitality Trusts:
Fair value S$1.84
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.105
versus: Current price S$1.580
Proposed acquisition of Jumeirah Dhevanafushi

CDL Hospitality Trusts (CDLHT) has entered into conditional land and business sale agreements with Xanadu Holdings Pvt Ltd for the acquisition of Jumeirah Dhevanafushi in the Maldives at US$59.6m (~S$74.8m). Based on the purchase price and assuming that CDLHT owned the property from 1 Jan 2013, the pro forma annualised net property income yield of the property for the nine months ended 30 Sep 2013 would be 6.2%. While management indicated that the 4Q13 and 1Q14 performance for its Singapore hotels is still lackluster, this is within our expectations. We roll over our DDM model to FY14 numbers. Despite using a more conservative risk free rate of 3.0% (instead of 2.4% previously), our FV increases from S$1.83 to S$1.84 and we maintain our BUY rating on CDLHT.

Lessons From The Penny Stock Crash

06 DECEMBER 2013
Lessons From The Penny Stock Crash
By Ong Qiuying and Choo Hao Xiang

It has been two months since the penny stock crash. Still, the market is reeling from the repercussions. This issue, Shares Investment looks into the potential red flags that could prompt second looks as well as ways to avoid getting oneself into a sticky situation.

From being termed laggards to being the stock market losers of the year. All in less than a year. That was how quick the tide had turned for penny stocks listed on the Singapore Exchange (SGX).

How Will Shandong Weigao’s Withdrawal Affect Biosensors?

 05 DECEMBER 2013
How Will Shandong Weigao’s Withdrawal Affect Biosensors?
By Nicholas Tan

Increasing competition in mainland China which is causing a drag on Biosensors’ margin triggered a substantial stakeholder to pull out of the firm. The once darling of the healthcare sector is under immense pressure to reaffirm its position as the third-leading DES player in China. How will this stake sale affect the medical device manufacturer? Could this be the beginning of a privatisation plan in the making?

曾渊沧@股友通讯录-2013 年11 月份

各位朋友
11 月份的通讯 至今日才动笔,不是因为事忙,而是因为过去数天我一直无法明白何 以新加坡股市仍然未起动,向上升?

大家都知道, 美国股市升势极强,今年3 月5 日 道琼斯指数升破2007 年的历史高点14198 点,之后更一路向上,不断地创新高,现在,道琼斯指数已经在16000 点之上。

过去许多年 ,新加坡股市的升跌,很大程度与美股看齐,2007 年新加坡海峡时报指数最高点是3906 点,现在却连3200 点也未到。今年5 月,海峡时报指数一度升至3464 点,升势不错,大有一鼓作气,创新纪录,但是,之后美国联邦储备局开始放出可能退市的讯息,海峡时报指数就急跌而下,於今年9 月跌破3000 点创今年新低之后反弹,但也长时间徘徊在3200 点水平,窄幅波,长时间横摆。

Supermax Corporation - Exciting Times Ahead (Kenanga)

Supermax Corporation -
Price: RM2.69
Target Price: RM3.06
Exciting Times Ahead

We came away from Supermax (“SUPERMX”) 3Q13 post results briefing feeling excited about growth prospects going forward. We believe that SUPERMX is on track to delivering mid-teens growth over the next two years. The key takeaways from SUPERMX briefing include the followings: - (i) explanation of the massive expansion plans for Glove City and Supermax Business Park, (ii) new capacity’s net margin ranges between 9% to 11% due to intense competition, (iii) new capacity from factory Lot 6058 & 6059 to drive growth over the next two years, and (iv) minimal concerns about higher energy costs going forward. Maintain OUTPERFORM and TP is RM3.06 based on 13x FY14E EPS.

Sunway : Catalysts shifts to construction (CIMB)

Sunway Bhd -
Current RM2.65
Target RM3.11
Catalysts shifts to construction

Sunway's annualised 9M13 core net profit was 6% above our full-year forecast and 9% above consensus. The results were above expectations as we had underestimated the associates' contribution. Sunway's fundamentals are good, with improved earnings prospects for construction in the medium term. Maintain Outperform.

We raise our FY13-15 EPS forecasts. Although we roll over to an end-2014 valuation, our RNAV/share drops by 4.4% as we update our balance sheet items and impute SunReits's lower market value. Our target price is lowered, still based on a 20% RNAV discount. The catalysts now shift to construction, with order book growth driven by domestic jobs. The stock's deep value continues to be supported by its huge land bank.

Matrix Concepts A Defensive Developer (Kenanga)

Matrix Concepts
Price: RM3.22
Target Price: RM4.80
A Defensive Developer

Initiating Coverage on Matrix Concepts with an OUTPERFORM recommendation and TP of RM4.80 based on 20% discount to its FD RNAV of RM6.00. We like the stock on account of the following factors:

(i) its flagship Bandar Sri Sendayan (BSS) and Sendayan TechValley (STV) at Seremban and Taman Sri Impian@Kluang, Johor enjoys growing demand driven by sustainable factors such as rising affordable housing demand and attractive industrial land prices, (ii) it is reaping higher margins due to low land costs, and (iii) balance sheet is in net cash position, which paves the way for aggressive GDV replenishments in Seremban.

Friday, December 6, 2013

Is Singapore real estate losing its shine?

Is Singapore real estate losing its shine?

Demand for Singapore real estate will fall next year, according to a report from global accountancy firm PricewaterhouseCoopers, which said the market slipped four places in its 2014 ranking of property markets.

According to PwC's Emerging Trends in Real Estate Asia Pacific forecast, published in conjunction with the Urban Land Institute, concerns around oversupply in some Singapore property sectors have damped appetite.

"Singapore slipped off the top five spots for the first time since the publication first started in 2007," said Choo Eng Beng, real estate leader at PwC.

GST消费税 必推高屋价

GST消费税 必推高屋价
Created 11/29/2013 - 12:48
2015年4月起,政府将实行6%消费税(GST),槟州房地产发展商会(REHDA)主席拿督陈福星担忧这可能将大幅推高槟州屋价。

他说,虽然政府宣布住宅产业将豁免消费税,但这不包括商业与工业类型产业,以及土地交易、建筑材料等。

他形容,2014年度财政预算案是一个以消费税(GST)为主导的预算案。

Dr ChanYanChong-Commentary - 06.12.2013

06 DECEMBER 2013
Hong Kong Stock Market Hits New High For 2013; Worth A Look At
By Dr Chan Yan Chong

The Hang Seng Index (HSI) hitting the much awaited new high of the year is worth celebrating. I have been reminding readers umpteen times in the last few months that Hong Kong counters are trading below their valuations, be it in terms of their price-to-earnings or price-to-book ratios. So let us anticipate the future with optimism. Moreover, the mid-to-small cap counters listed in Hong Kong have been trading like hotcakes in the past few months; a prolonged surge is unlikely to be seen if the market were weak. Following HSI’s new high of the year, it is natural to pin hopes on the index to set the next historic high. It is rare that HSI has shunned away from a new historic high since logging the last one in 2007.

Yoma Strategic Holdings: Signs agreement with Ooredoo (OCBC)

Yoma Strategic Holdings:
Fair value S$0.84
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.01
versus: Current price S$0.77
Signs agreement with Ooredoo

Yoma reported that its consortium, Digicel Asian Holdings, comprising Digicel Group, First Myanmar Investment Co., Ltd and Yoma Strategic Holdings Ltd, has signed an agreement with Ooredoo Myanmar to develop, construct and lease telecommunications towers in Myanmar. We understand from management that detailed terms regarding ownership and capital outlay for the consortium are still being negotiated and will be announced in due time. Digicel Asian Holdings’ company in Myanmar, Myanmar Tower Company, will construct multi-tenancy towers in Myanmar and aim to work with multiple telecommunications operating companies, including Ooredoo’s to facilitate its commitment to rapidly achieve coverage across the country after winning a coveted telecommunication license earlier this year. Maintain HOLD with an unchanged fair value estimate of S$0.84.

Neptune Orient Lines : Is the worst over? (CIMB)

Neptune Orient Lines
Current S$1.07
Target S$1.16
Is the worst over?

Despite the likelihood of outsized losses in 4Q13 following a dramatic fall in spot rates over the past few months, the worst may be over and 2014 could be better. NOL's current share price has incorporated large amounts of risk and downside appears limited.

We maintain our Hold call as well as our target price, still based on 1.1x CY14 P/BV, the mid-point of its trading range since 2012. Losses should widen sequentially in 4Q13 due to a dramatic fall in spot rates but NOL's share price has taken a lot of risk into account and should be supported at the current levels. Our forecasts are tweaked up/down by some housekeeping adjustments.

Yangzijiang Shipbuilding : Full capacity (CIMB)

Yangzijiang Shipbuilding
Current S$1.15
Target S$1.30
Full capacity

YZJ’s yard will be full till 2015 and it is now filling up slots for 2016 delivery. The company has 30 options outstanding with clients worth US$1.48bn, some of which could be converted into orders in due time.

Meanwhile, we believe near-term catalysts are lacking in view of weaker quarterly earnings widely expected for FY14 as it executes lower-margin vessels. Our target price is intact, still at 1.4x FY14 P/BV (-1 s.d. of its 5-year mean). Maintain Hold.

Shipping and Shipbuilding - What‟s good for shipyards is not good for container shipping (CIMB)

Shipping and Shipbuilding -
What‟s good for shipyards is not good for container shipping

Containership orders have been very strong in 2013, and we expect orders to continue into 2014-15, benefitting primarily the Korean shipyards. Container shipping, on the other hand, will likely face a challenging 2014, as oversupply accumulates.

We stay Overweight on the Offshore and Marine sector, and Neutral on Container Shipping. HHI is our top Outperform pick, followed by DSME, as they gain from more containership orders, among other catalysts. OOIL remains our top pick in the container shipping space on valuation grounds and on its internal strengths, though immediate investor interest may be limited. Our forecasts for OOIL and CSCL have been lowered here.

Courts Asia: Opportunity to accumulate (DBSV)

Courts Asia:
BUY S$0.65
STI : 3,160.70
(Upgrade from HOLD)
Price Target: 12-Month S$0.77
Opportunity to accumulate;

•Recent 22% share price correction presents accumulation opportunities
•Credit tightening factored into share price; likely to end post-FYE Mar’14
•Valuation attractive at -1SD,  downside risk looks limited on our below consensus growth estimates
•Upgrade to BUY for 21% potential total return upside and S$0.77 TP.

曾淵滄專欄 06.12.13:領匯多捧場客有因

內地政府終於在前天傍晚公佈,向現有三家電訊公司發出4G牌照。昨日三家電訊股的股價沒多大變化,升幅最高的中移動(941)僅升0.53%,聯通(762)則下跌1.16%。

電訊設備股的表現較好,但是表現最好的晨訊(2000)是隻三、四線細價股,市值僅9億元,細價股股價上升,可以不必任何基本因素來支持。市值比較大、真正能在電訊公司的4G投資上賺錢的中興(763),股價更倒跌,是否之前偷步炒過頭呢?

我不會對內地4G牌照抱太大憧憬,香港早已有4G,但是,我看不到電訊商因此而賺大錢。

Q&M : Secured More Funding Options and Progress in the Chinese Dental Market (VR)

Q&M Dental Group (Singapore) Limited
Increase Exposure
Secured More Funding Options and Progress in the Chinese Dental Market
 Intrinsic Value S$0.420
 Prev Closing Price S$0.320

 Q&M Dental Group Limited (Q&M) posted several updates on its acquisition spree in China over the past one week. Firstly, the company established a S$200m multicurrency MTN programme which can help to finance some of their purchases. Secondly, the company entered into a MOU to acquire 51% of Rongcheng City Shidao Meichen Hospital and Rongcheng City Meichen Stomatology Polyclinic for RMB17.85m. Q&M will pay for this deal entirely using Q&M shares and the shares have a five years moratorium. Similar to all the previous deals, the sellers will provide a profit guarantee over the next 12 years, which will cover Q&M’s purchase price.

Thursday, December 5, 2013

成本加重‧利差收窄 大马产托魅力渐失

成本加重‧利差收窄 大马产托魅力渐失
Created 12/05/2013 - 12:33
(吉隆坡4日讯)隆市门牌税料调涨加上10年大马政府债券(MGS)殖利率扬升,大马产业投资信托公司(REITs)渐失吸引力。

肯纳格投行将所追踪的产托目标价,下调4%至12%,早前给予大马产托领域的“低於大市”投资评级则维持不变。

截至今年10月30日,因市场担忧美联储超宽松政策退场,10年期大马政府债券殖利率扬升至4.1%。

业绩全跌‧部分转亏 龙筹股难拾投资信心

业绩全跌‧部分转亏 龙筹股难拾投资信心
Created 12/05/2013 - 09:05
(吉隆坡4日讯)股价一直弥漫低迷氛围的中国“龙筹股”,最新业绩几乎全部失利,有者更是“见红”,要重建我国投资者的信心越来越难。

《南洋商报》统计马交所上市的9家中国公司截至9月30日的季度业绩,除了中国汽车零件(CAP,5229,主板工业产品股)因年初才上市,无法比对业绩表现之外,其他8家公司业绩均令人失望。

Yoma consortium is Myanmar's first telecom tower companies (DBSV)

Yoma Strategic Holdings:
BUY S$0.74
STI : 3,188.76
Price Target : S$ 1.02
Yoma consortium is Myanmar's first telecom tower companies

•Signed agreement to develop and lease telecom towers to Ooredoo Myanmar; JV will lease to multiple tenants subsequently
•This development is positive and fast-paced, earnings accretion likely to be in 2015 onwards
•Yoma would need to raise fund for this venture but we believe its stake would not be substantial
•Maintain Buy, TP S$1.02

Genting Hong Kong - Crystallising RNAV and pivoting back to Asia (CIMB)

Genting Hong Kong -
Current US$0.46
Target US$0.60
Crystallising RNAV and pivoting back to Asia

GENHK should receive US$375m from the latest secondary placement by Norwegian Cruise Lines (NCL). We estimate that GENHK will have US$1.3bn in cash illustrating its ability to crystallise its RNAV. We cut our FY13-15 EPS by 2-6% to factor in GENHK's reduced stake in NCL but maintain our target price which is based on a 20% discount to RNAV as the placement is monetising NCL's value. Catalyst is the market cap expansion of NCL and Travellers which account for 67% of GENHK's RNAV. Add maintained.  

We cut our FY13-15 EPS by 2-6% to factor in GENHK's reduced stake in NCL but maintain our target price which is based on a 20% discount to RNAV as the placement is monetising NCL's value. Catalyst is the market cap expansion of NCL and Travellers which account for 67% of GENHK's RNAV. Add maintained.

CapitaLand - Reaffirming Sino-Singapore Strategy (MKE)

CapitaLand -
Buy (unchanged)
Share price:SGD3.03
Target price: SGD4.10 (unchanged)
 Reaffirming Sino-Singapore Strategy

Putting the pieces in place. We recently visited a number of CapitaLand and CMA’s projects in Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen and walked away optimistic that the Group has put in place the necessary framework and is executing towards achieving a sustainable ROE of 8-12%.

We believe the CapitaLand group currently has a competitive edge over its competitors in China, particularly with integrated developments. Maintain BUY, TP unchanged at SGD4.10.

Courts Asia :Up Against The Wall (MKE)

Courts Asia
Sell (from Hold)
Share price: SGD0.675
Target price: SGD0.60 (from SGD0.72)
Up Against The Wall, Cut To SELL

 Mired in a highly competitive market; downgrade to SELL. The electronics and furniture retailing market is highly fragmented, with scant opportunities for price or cost leadership. As such, we think Courts Asia is taking steps in the right direction to create differentiation, though for now, the company’s credit operations seem to be its only competitive edge. Share price has declined 22% YTD but a reversal looks unlikely anytime soon. Downgrade to SELL. We transfer coverage of Courts Asia to James Koh.

曾淵滄專欄 05.12.13:細價股止蝕考工夫

美股連跌三日,港股就連跌兩日,還好港股跌幅不大,算是正常的調整。藍籌股連跌兩日,一些正在炒作的三、四線股就大跌,前日升幅榜第一名的金寶通(320),昨日卻成為跌幅榜第一名,當然,沒有人知道今日它會不會又晉身升幅榜。

急升暴插無所適從
近來,有好幾隻股份隨機出現於升幅榜及跌幅榜,有時是升幅榜,有時是跌幅榜,遇上這種走勢,的確很難炒,有些專家會告訴你,要嚴守止蝕。問題是,如果你買10隻這類股,全部都是高追,最後很可能10隻都要止蝕。而且,這類股大升大跌,一開市就升20%,你得高追,之後5分鐘內急跌20%,你能以甚麼價格止蝕呢?能夠如你的理想,虧8%就止蝕嗎?不止蝕的話,也許可以博明日再度成為升幅榜的股,那時再止蝕或止賺好不好呢?

Wednesday, December 4, 2013

区域业务疲弱‧首季净利挫48% 百盛控股前景暗淡

区域业务疲弱‧首季净利挫48% 百盛控股前景暗淡
Created 12/04/2013 - 11:15
(吉隆坡3日讯)区域业务表现疲弱,百盛控股(PARKSON,5657,主板贸服股)2014财政年首季(截至9月30日止)净利大跌47.9%,大部分分析员看淡该公司展望。

目前,有分析员下修评级和目标价格,有者则认为该公司可在接下来的季度重拾动力。

百盛控股首季净利滑落47.9%,至3073万8000令吉;营业额则微扬0.9%,达8亿3132万2000令吉。

在首季营业额,中国市场(+2%)、越南及缅甸(+3.6%)的贡献增加,而印尼则有助于维持百盛控股的增长,贡献按年扬升7.4%。

Malaysian Bulk Carriers : Sixth Straight Quarterly Losses at EBIT Level (TA)

Malaysian Bulk Carriers Berhad
TP: RM 1.54
Last Traded: RM 1.72
Sixth Straight Quarterly Losses at EBIT Level

Review
_ Maybulk’s 9M13 core net profit came in below our expectations at 40% our full-year forecasts and 53% consensus estimates. This was mainly due to lower-than-expected time charter equivalent (TCE) rates. Also, the operating expenses were unexpectedly high due to higher docking expenses.

_ 9M13 core profit increased 5.2% yoy underpinned by higher contribution from POSH by 96%. Excluding that, Maybulk’s own operations continued struggling to turnaround at the EBIT level for the past 6 consecutive quarters. For 9M13, operating losses expanded by more than 4.7x yoy to RM22mn. The dismal performance can be attributed to slow recovery in TCE and higher docking expenses.

Parkson Retail Group : More patience needed (DBSV)

Parkson Retail Group
HOLD HK$2.75
HSI : 23,580
Price Target : 12-Month HK$ 2.54 (Prev HK$2.92)
More patience needed

3Q13 net profit dropped 78% to RMB33m (9M13: -47%), below expectations.
Recent SSS continued to show a falling trend. We cut FY13-14 net profit by 17-18% and revise down TP to HK$2.54.
Management will enhance cost rationalization and streamline underperformed stores. Without key near-term catalysts and trading at 11x 12-mth rolling PE, HOLD.

Consumer sector: Challenging 2014 ahead (OCBC)

Consumer sector: Challenging 2014 ahead
We expect the first half of 2014 to be an uneventful one for the consumer sector, and we maintain our UNDERWEIGHT rating. We feel that revenue growth is likely to be challenging given the recent spate of bearish data points both domestically and abroad, which indicate that consumer spending is likely to be subdued in 2014, and that companies will also continue to face margin pressures from rising operating expenses (i.e. higher staff and rental expenses). In addition, ongoing concerns over the overall macro environment and the focus on rising inflation will also keep a lid on consumer spending. Within our sector coverage our top picks are Sheng Siong Group [BUY; FV: S$0.78] as we like its defensive qualities in the face of weaker domestic sales, and Petra Foods [BUY; FV:S$3.95] for its dominant leadership position in chocolate confectionary products.

Mapletree Logistics Trust - Driving into the redevelopment lane (CIMB)

Mapletree Logistics Trust -
Current S$1.06
Target S$1.11
Driving into the redevelopment lane

With increasing difficulties in acquiring yield-accretive properties, MLT is expected to grow by maximising the plot ratios of some of its underutilised properties in the medium term.

Given the difficulty of acquiring yield-accretive properties, we expect MLT to rely more on redevelopment projects for its mid-term growth. With a resilient portfolio and more than 90% of its distributable income hedged, we upgrade it to Neutral from Underperform with a slightly higher DDM-based (discount rate: 8.1%) target price of S$1.11 as we factor in the upcoming development project at 5B Toh Guan Road.

Mapletree Commercial Trust : Growth engine sputters (CIMB)

Mapletree Commercial Trust
Current S$1.22
Target S$1.28
Growth engine sputters

MCT's portfolio growth continues to be underpinned by positive rental reversions in VivoCity. However, as the current market sentiment is not conducive for major AEIs and M&A, we expect MCT's mid-term growth to be limited to organic growth only.

With the recent c.4% correction in share price, coupled with i) a resilient portfolio, ii) only 1.6% of retail leases up for renewal in FY14 and 16% in FY15, and iii) a high portfolio occupancy rate of 98.9%, we have upgraded Mapletree Commercial Trust (MCT) to a Neutral rating. We maintain our DDM-based (discount rate: 7.9%) target price of S$1.28.

曾淵滄專欄 04.12.13:細價股瘋狂啟示錄

前晚美股調整,因此昨日港股也回落,不過三、四線的炒股依然狂炒,其中有三隻相當有趣,不妨提出來討論討論。這三隻股是CEC國際(759)、金寶通(320)和銀基(886),很可惜這三隻股我全部沒有持有,我只是一名旁觀者,與大家分享我的觀察。

CEC股價最近風光得很,特別是當老闆宣佈要進軍化妝品行業後,股價就如火箭般上升,昨日以4.25元開市,最高升至4.99元,差1仙就達到5元,然後竟然直瀉而下,最低跌至3.4元,高低位差距之大令人吃驚,最後收市價是4.13元,與前日收市價比,跌了7.5%。

Strategy 2014 - Playing Catch-Up Soon? (OCBC)

Playing Catch-Up Soon?

While the Singapore stock market is likely to end 2013 flat, the economic outlook for 2014 could mean Asian and Singapore equities are worth a re-look. We expect developed markets’ issues which dominated global headlines in the last two years to remain, largely centering on slowing economic growth, debt and high unemployment.

However, the recent 3Q corporate results in Singapore point to a cautious optimism for 2014, and this could mean high single-digit earnings growth for the benchmark STI stocks.

Tuesday, December 3, 2013

Supermax Corporation - Solid Performance (Kennaga)

Supermax Corporation -
Price: RM2.67
Target Price: RM3.06
Solid Performance, Raised TP

Period  3Q13/9M13
Actual vs. Expectations  The 9MY13 net profit of RM104m (+16% yoy) came in within expectations, accounting for 73% and 75% of our and the consensus full-year net profit forecasts respectively.

Dividends  A first interim single-tier dividend of 2 sen was declared.

Key Results Highlights QoQ, revenue fell by 14% to RM284m; hit by both lower volume sales and average selling price (ASP) of nitrile gloves.

Malaysia Bulk Carriers : Dry bulk losses mitigated by associate earnings (MIDF)

Malaysia Bulk Carriers
Price (27 Nov 2013) RM1.72
Target Price RM1.90
Dry bulk losses mitigated by associate earnings

INVESTMENT HIGHLIGHTS
9M13 net profit was below expectations, accounting for 57% and 66% of ours and consensus forecasts.
Earnings were dragged down by operating losses in dry bulk and tanker divisions.
Maintain NEUTRAL stance with unchanged TP of RM1.90, based on sum-of-parts method.

UOBKH 2014 Top BUYs – MID Caps- Rotary Engineering

Rotary Engineering
Share Price S$0.64
Target Price S$0.88

BACKGROUND
Rotary Engineering (Rotary) provides fully-integrated engineering design, procurement, construction and maintenance (EPCM) services to the oil & gas (O&G), petroleum, petrochemical and pharmaceutical industries. The group has projects in Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, India, China, Australia, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Some of the major projects Rotary has undertaken include the Universal Terminal in Singapore and SATORP JERP package 6 in Saudi Arabia.

UOBKH 2014 Top BUYs – MID Caps- Nam Cheong

Nam Cheong
Share Price S$0.29
Target Price S$0.36

BACKGROUND
Nam Cheong is a leading Malaysia-based offshore marine group specialising in the construction of offshore support vessels (OSV). Core businesses are: a) construction of OSVs used in the exploration, development, production and decommissioning phases of the oilfield lifecycle, and b) chartering of OSVs.

OUTLOOK/RECOMMENDATION
• Larger orderbook. Ytd’s record vessel sales of RM1,338m (20 vessels) have surpassed 2012’s total sales of RM1,314m (21 vessels). Nam Cheong’s orderbook currently stands at gross RM1.7b (net RM1.4b), up from RM1.4b (net RM1.2b) a quarter ago. Current orderbook, comprising 25 vessels (4, 16 and 5 to be delivered in 4Q13, 2014 and 2015 respectively), provides strong earnings visibility for the next three years. In 9M13, Nam Cheong delivered 14 vessels vs 9 vessels in 9M12.

UOBKH 2014 Top BUYs – Big Caps- CapitaCommercial Trust

CapitaCommercial Trust
Share Price S$1.47
Target Price S$1.74

BACKGROUND
CapitaCommercial Trust (CCT) is an office REIT with a portfolio of prime and Grade-A properties in Singapore, including Capital Tower, Six Battery Road, Raffles City and One George Street.

OUTLOOK/RECOMMENDATION
• Acquisition headroom of S$1.1b from the lowest gearing of 29.5% among large-cap office REITs, with a call option to acquire the remaining 60% stake in key pipeline property CapitaGreen (40%-owned) in 4Q14.

UOBKH 2014 Top BUYs – MID Caps- OSIM International

OSIM International
Share Price S$2.21
Target Price S$2.76

BACKGROUND
OSIM International (OSIM) creates, designs, develops and markets well-being and healthy lifestyle products through its specialty retail outlets worldwide. Its products include massage chairs, foot massagers, neck & shoulder massagers, head massagers, fitness equipment, diagnostic equipment, vitamin & supplements, and luxury tea. The company has a portfolio of brands including OSIM, TWG, RichLife, GNC and Brookstone.

UOBKH 2014 Top BUYs – Big Caps- Suntec REIT

Suntec REIT
Share Price S$1.56
Target Price S$2.12

BACKGROUND
Suntec REIT (Suntec) is an office and commercial REIT with stakes in Suntec City Mall, Marina Bay Financial Centre (MBFC), One Raffles Quay and Park Mall.

OUTLOOK/RECOMMENDATION
• Suntec City Mall AEI will improve property income by 33%. Suntec City Mall’s S$410m asset enhancement initiative (AEI) will boost the mall’s retail rentals by 25% and property income by 33% by end-14. Pre-commitments have been strong with Phase 1 of the AEI almost fully taken-up, and 84% take-up for Phase 2, which is due to complete by early-14.

UOBKH 2014 Top BUYs – Big Caps- Overseas Union Enterprise

Overseas Union Enterprise
Share Price S$2.49
Target Price S$3.12

BACKGROUND
Overseas Union Enterprise (OUE) is a real estate owner, developer and operator with diversified asset exposure to the prime office, hotel, retail and residential segments. Total asset size tops S$5b with more than 90% of its asset base in Singapore. Over the last few years, the group has been leveraging its expertise to invest and develop in the retail, commercial and residential property segments.

UOBKH 2014 Top BUYs – Big Caps- M1

M1
Share Price S$3.25
Target Price S$3.95

BACKGROUND
M1 is the second licensed telecommunications service operator in Singapore. It commenced commercial operations in Apr 97 with the launch of its GSM network. It began offering 3G services in Feb 05 and upgraded its 3G network to HSPA in Dec 06 to support wireless broadband services. M1 offers mobile and fixed-line customers IDD services using prefixes 002 and 021. It also sells international minutes to other international service providers on a wholesale basis.

UOBKH 2014 Top BUYs – Big Caps- Keppel Corporation

Keppel Corporation
Share Price S$11.16
Target Price S$13.10

BACKGROUND
Keppel Corporation (Keppel) is a conglomerate with its earnings coming from three core businesses: offshore heavy engineering, property and infrastructure. Subsidiary Keppel Offshore & Marine (O&M), with a network of 20 shipyards and offices worldwide, is a leading builder of offshore drilling rigs and oil & gas production systems.

OUTLOOK/RECOMMENDATION
• 2014 is poised for roaring contract wins. We project annual contract wins of S$6b (2012: S$9.9b) for 2013-15. The recent US$1.1b order from US driller Transocean for the building of 5 drilling jack-up rigs has pushed Keppel’s contract wins ytd to S$6.4m, thus marginally surpassing our projection for 2013. There is an option for another 5 rigs that could yield another US$1.1b order.

UOBKH 2014 Top BUYs – Big Caps- First Resources

First Resources
Share Price S$2.24
Target Price S$2.60

BACKGROUND
First Resources (FR) is an Indonesia-based plantation company with a total planted area of 165,876ha in Indonesia and refining capacity of 250,000 tonnes p.a. It operates 12 palm oil mills in Indonesia and most of its plantation estates are strategically located in Riau and West Kalimantan. Eight Capital is the largest shareholder with a 63.2% stake.

UOBKH 2014 Top BUYs – Big Caps- DBS Group Holdings

DBS Group Holdings
Share Price S$17.09
Target Price S$21.50

BACKGROUND
DBS Group Holdings (DBS) was established in 1968 to provide financial assistance to the manufacturing sector so as to promote industrialisation. It was restructured as a holding company in 1999. It bought the Post Office Savings Bank (POSB) for S$1.6b in 1998, acquiring the latter’s huge retail customer base. DBS acquired Dao Heng Bank in Hong Kong in 2001, which was integrated with DBS Kwong On Bank. DBS established its presence in Taiwan through the acquisition of the “good bank assets” of Bowa Bank in Feb 08. DBS was incorporated in China in May 07 and has 29 branches in 10 cities.

UOBKH 2014 Top BUYs – Big Caps- CapitaLand

CapitaLand
Share Price S$3.03
Target Price S$3.83

BACKGROUND
CapitaLand is one of the largest listed real estate companies in Asia with an asset value of S$36.4b (excluding treasury cash) as at Sep 13. Its core businesses in real estate, hospitality and real estate financial services focus on gateway cities in Asia- Pacific, Europe and the Middle East. The company’s real estate and hospitality portfolio spans more than 90 cities in over 20 countries. Listed subsidiaries and associates include CapitaMalls Asia, The Ascott Group, Australand, CapitaMall Trust, CapitaCommercial Trust, Ascott Residence Trust, CapitaRetail China Trust and Quill Capita Trust.

2014 Strategy : Green Shoots Beneath Grey Skies (UOBKH)

Green Shoots Beneath Grey Skies
 Constructive 2014 but wait till the coast is clear. While we opine that 2014 will be constructive for the FSSTI, we see near term headwinds in 1H14 as markets grapple with the initial
impact from the US’ tapering. Nevertheless, leading indicators point to a gradual global recovery in 2014. We have a 2014 year end FSSTI target of 3,400.

 Earnings recovery in 2014 to drive markets. Investors will be focusing on Singapore’s earnings recovery in 2014 after a lacklustre 2013. In our view, sectors driving 2014 growth include banks, plantation and telecommunications. Markets will need to be convinced that 2014 earnings will be intact after a tepid 2013.

First Resources - FFB production peaked in October (BNP)

First Resources -
TARGET PRICE SGD2.76
CLOSE SGD2.24
FFB production peaked in October

■ Management now guiding zero to 5% y-y 2013 FFB growth
The latest FFB production figures for October showe d 18.2% y-y blended growth, and, for 10M13, FFB production grew 3.8% y-y. Management said that October was FR’s peak producti on month and November and December’s FFB growth will be lower y- y, and at best, production will rise 5% y-y in 2013.

FR will buy more third-party FFB to keep its mills running above 60% utilisation.

Monday, December 2, 2013

Singapore Developers 2014: Shift towards home oversupply begins (BNP)

Singapore Developers -
2014: Shift towards home oversupply begins

n The shift towards oversupply has begun
We are turning more cautious on the Singapore residential market given oversupply risk. We expect the era of supply shortage to end by 2015, with pent-up demand easing and completed supply set to reach record high levels in the coming two to three years.

Unsold inventory has been rising since 3Q13 as developers race to launch products ahead of home price weakness. Home demand growth has been declining since its peak in 2012 due to credit tightening and other restrictions from the seven cooling measures. Looking into 2014-15, we expect demand growth to stay under pressure due to potential interest rate increases and slower economic and population growth.

Marco Polo Marine - Surprise Dividend To Kick Off FY14 (DMG)

Marco Polo Marine -
Target Price: SGD0.55
Price: SGD0.38
Surprise Dividend To Kick Off FY14

MPM posted FY13 PATMI of SGD22.3m, with core PATMI at SGD16.6m. The big surprise was a 1.4-cent special dividend - a strong hint of management’s optimism on FY14. OSV charter income should surge as charter rates have been reset at c.USD2.00/bhp/day vs USD1.50/bhp/day before. Valuations are undemanding at a 6.2x FY14F P/E, 3.7% yield, and 0.8x P/BV based on 25% core profit growth.

Maintain BUY and SGD0.55 TP.

RH Petrogas : Formalises Oil Discovery In Indonesia; We Anticipate More Newsflow (UOBKH)

RH Petrogas
Share Price S$0.59
Target Price S$1.60
Formalises Oil Discovery In Indonesia; We Anticipate More Newsflow

RHP announced yesterday that its wire-line logging at its Klagalo-1 exploration well indicated that there were potential hydrocarbon zones from the Kais limestone and final tests are being done now. While it did not mention if the hydrocarbons were recoverable, we are upbeat about the oil discovery. We remain encouraged with potential upcoming newsflow which may boost shareholders’ value. Maintain BUY. Target price: S$1.60.

Parkson : Another disappointing quarter (DBSV)

Parkson Holdings Bhd
FULLY VALUED RM3.69
KLCI :1,797.97
(Downgrade from Hold)
Price Target : 12-Month RM 3.00 (Prev RM 3.30)
Another disappointing quarter

1Q14 net profit below expectations
China contributions slumped while Malaysian market remains weak
Slash FY14-15 EPS by 22-27%
Downgrade to FULLY VALUED with lower TP of RM3.00

Below expectations. Parkson reported 1QFY14 net profit of RM30.7m (-48% y-o-y, +2% q-o-q), which was way below our expectations as 1QFY14 net profit is only 13% of our initial full-year estimate.

Malaysian Bulk Carriers : Better days ahead (DBSV)

Malaysian Bulk Carriers
BUY RM1.72
KLCI : 1,798.46
Price Target : 12-Month RM 2.10
Better days ahead

3Q13 results missed estimates
Higher charter rates offset by higher docking charges for three vessels
Strong POSH performance to sustain near-term profit
Maintain BUY rating and RM2.10 TP

Highlights
3Q13 results below expectation. MBC booked RM8.5m profit in 3Q13 (-35% q-o-q, -50% y-o-y), taking 9M13 profit to RM30.7m (-37% y-o-y) or 63% of our full year forecast. The weaker result was due to higher docking costs for three vessels in the quarter and fewer hire days, which offset the marginal increase in charter rates. As a result, revenue dipped 4% q-o-q and 3% y-o-y to RM62.8m and operating loss widened slightly to RM5.7m from RM3.2m in the previous quarter.

IJM Land : 1HFY14 property sales up 39% YoY (CS)

IJM Land Berhad
Maintain OUTPERFORM
Price (25 Nov 13 , RM) 2.56
TP (prev. TP RM) 3.80 (3.80)
1HFY14 property sales up 39% YoY

● IJML’s 1H FY14 core net profit of RM150 mn (excluding a RM23 mn forex gain), up 98% YoY, was within expectation and made up 53% of consensus estimates. Property sales grew 39% YoY to RM1.25 bn with unbilled sales now standing at RM2.0 bn.

● Management remains confident that affordable properties (below RM1 mn), especially in the Klang Valley and Penang, will continue to sell well despite the measures announced during Budget 2014. We believe there is strong interest for IJML's key projects and estimate property sales (excl Royal Mint) to grow 37%, 13% and 10% in FY14, 15 and 16, respectively.

China Merchants Hldgs (Pacific) : Full speed ahead (DBSV)

China Merchants Hldgs (Pacific)
BUY S$0.9􀀏􀀔
STI : 3,172.85
Price Target: 12-Month S$1.20 (Prev S$1.07)

• Raise FY13 and FY14 estimates by 10% and 11% respectively, to factor in better traffic numbers and lower finance costs
• Steady traffic growth and early repayment of loans to drive firm organic earnings expansion
• Sale of NZ property business to further strengthen the Group’s balance sheet
• Maintain BUY, TP raised to S$1.20

Sunday, December 1, 2013

Salcon : 3QFY13 Results (NRA)

Salcon Berhad (Salcon)
Current Price : RM 0.685
Target Price: RM 0.90

• In 3QFY13, Salcon’s turnover declined by 11.9% to RM74.14m due to lower contribution from both concession and construction divisions.

• PBT and net profit rose by 87.3% and 41.1% to RM10.95m and RM0.59m due to higher installation income from its concession division.

李嘉诚反击:撤资大笑话

香港文汇报讯(记者 梁悦琴)近来,外界关于长实和黄集团从内地及香港「撤资」的传言四起。长和系主席李嘉诚接受《南方都市报》访问时再次反驳「撤资」传言,指长和系撤资是大笑话,指在商言商,高卖低买是正常的商业行为。他重申,长和系一定不会迁册,永远不会离开香港。但对未来投资香港表示谨慎的态度,强调一切必须以股东利益为大前提。

 今年以来,长实集团出售了上海、广州超过百亿元的商业物业,以及香港部分资产,还曾经洽谈过转让百佳超市项目。由此,长和系要撤资的传言沸沸扬扬。

Padini : A good start (DBSV)

Padini Holdings
HOLD RM1.65
KLCI : 1,797.97
Price Target : 12-Month RM 1.75
A good start

1QFY14 net profit of RM28m is in line
Earnings lifted by increase in exports and stronger revenue from Brands Outlet stores
Declared second interim and special net DPS of 2.5 and 1.5 sen
Maintain Hold at RM1.75 TP

Highlights
1QFY14 in line. Padini’s 1QFY14 net profit rose 10% y-o-y to RM27.7m, mainly driven by increase in exports and stronger revenue from its Brands Outlet stores. The quarter’s earnings represent 30% of our full-year estimate. This is within expectations. We expect softer profit during 4Q14.

Guan Chong : Larger losses on weak ASP (DBSV)

Guan Chong
FULLY VALUED RM1.51
KLCI : 1,797.97
Price Target : 12-Month RM 1.25 (Prev RM 1.30)
Larger losses on weak ASP

3Q13 core pretax profit of RM10m was below estimate
Bottomline hit by weak cocoa powder prices, inventories write-down and forex losses
Cut FY13-15F EPS by 3-12%
Maintain Fully Valued with lower TP of RM1.25

Highlights
Results below expectation. GC reported weaker core pretax profit of RM10m (-72% y-o-y), taking 9M13 core pretax profit to RM67m (-44% y-o-y). This is only 69% of our initial full- year estimate.

Wellcall - Lower raw material prices save the day (CIMB)

Wellcall Holdings -
Current RM3.29
Target RM3.72
Lower raw material prices save the day

FY09/13 final net profit at 101% of our forecast was in line with market and our expectations. Final interim DPS was 5sen while full-year DPS was 18sen. The land for the new factory has just been finalised and construction of the facility should be completed by end-2014. We cut our FY14 EPS, raise our FY15, and introduce FY16 numbers. Our target price rises with our valuation basis unchanged at 15.5x 2015 P/E, a 10% discount to Top Glove's target P/E. Wellcall remains an Outperform. Further demand recovery and attractive dividend yields of 5-6% could catalyse the stock.

Parkson Retail Group 3Q13 review: Near 0% margin and no break on expansion—A cash cow turning into cash burner (CS)

Parkson Retail Group Ltd.
Maintain UNDERPERFORM
Price (21 Nov 13 , HK$) 2.75
TP (prev. TP HK$) 2.10 (2.50)
3Q13 review: Near 0% margin and no break on expansion—A cash cow turning into cash burner

● Parkson's 3Q13 net profit fell 77% YoY to Rmb 33 mn (only achieving 30% of consensus estimate for 2H13); net margin fell 3 pp YoY to 1%. 3Q Gross sales proceeds grew 1% YoY; SSSG was -4.2%.

● Nearly 30% of the total 57 stores are loss-making. We estimate eight are comp stores that should be closed; they generated c. Rmb70 mn of loss in 9M13, offseting over 10% of earnings, per our estimate.

Tune Ins - Travel unit takes flight (CIMB)

Tune Ins Holdings Bhd -
Current RM1.90
Target RM2.55
Travel unit takes flight

At 76% of our full-year forecast and 75% of consensus, Tune Ins's 9M13 net profit topped expectations. The variance came from a surprisingly low tax rate of 5.5%, partly arising from RM2.7m tax relief from the payment to the Malaysian Motor Insurance Pool (MMIP). We are raising our FY13 EPS forecast by 4% as we lower our assumed tax rate from 22% to 19%. This does not affect our DDM-based target price (9.2% COE; 5% LT growth). We retain our Outperform call due to the catalysts of swift expansion of the travel insurance business and an EPS-accretive acquisition in Indonesia.

AirAsia X Bhd - Competition bites (CIMB)

AirAsia X Bhd -
Current RM1.06
Target RM1.11
Competition bites

During the analyst results conference call, AAX acknowledged that MAS's aggressive price competition and capacity additions had hurt its yields, in addition to the normal yield declines expected when AAX itself raises capacity. We are factoring in lower yield, ASK capacity, and load factor assumptions, hence our FY13-15 forecasts are cut 10-46%. AAX's earnings are very sensitive to small changes in inputs. Our call remains a Neutral, but we lower our target price, still based on the sector average of 11x CY15 P/E. Switch to MAHB.

YTL Power - Bump in the road (CIMB)

YTL Power International -
Current RM1.94
Target RM2.55
Bump in the road

YTL Power's annualised 1QFY06/14 net profit missed our estimate, accounting for 79% of our full-year forecast. 1QFY14 earnings were dragged down by the continued losses of the mobile broadband division and forex losses. We cut our FY14-15 EPS by 3-10% as we lower our earnings estimates for the mobile broadband division. Our SOP-based target price remains unchanged at RM2.55. We retain our Outperform call on YTL Power. The re-rating catalyst is the 2GW coal-fired power plant tender, which is expected to be awarded to YTL by 1QCY14.
Warren E. Buffett(沃伦•巴菲特)
Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful
别人贪婪时我恐惧, 别人恐惧时我贪婪
投资只需学好两门课: 一,是如何给企业估值,二,是如何看待股市波动
吉姆·罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)
“错过时机”胜于“搞错对象”:不会全军覆没!”
做自己熟悉的事,等到发现大好机会才投钱下去

乔治·索罗斯(George Soros)

“犯错误并没有什么好羞耻的,只有知错不改才是耻辱。”

如果操作过量,即使对市场判断正确,仍会一败涂地。

李驰(中国巴菲特)
高估期间, 卖对, 不卖也对, 买是错的。
低估期间, 买对, 不买也是对, 卖是错的。

Tan Teng Boo


There’s no such thing as defensive stocks.Every stock can be defensive depending on what price you pay for it and what value you get,
冷眼(冯时能)投资概念
“买股票就是买公司的股份,买股份就是与陌生人合股做生意”。
合股做生意,则公司股份的业绩高于一切,而股票的价值决定于盈利。
价值是本,价格是末,故公司比股市重要百倍。
曹仁超-香港股神/港股明灯
1.有智慧,不如趁势
2.止损不止盈
成功者所以成功,是因为不怕失败!失败者所以失败,是失败后不再尝试!
曾淵滄-散户明灯
每逢灾难就是机会,而是在灾难发生时贱价买股票,然后放在一边,耐性地等灾难结束
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