Saturday, November 30, 2013

【大市展望】建銀:恒指明年望見26800 10股作首選



Parkson Retail Group 3Q13: Still Struggling (UOBKH)

Parkson Retail Group
Share Price HK$2.75
Target Price HK$1.70
3Q13: Still Struggling

Parkson’s 3Q13 results again fell short of expectations, with net profit falling 77% yoy to just Rmb35m. Same-store sales fell 4.2% yoy as footfall deteriorated further. Ongoing renovations have taken a toll on footfall, but more worrying is management’s strategy to open more stores when 20 of its 57 stores are in the red. We cut 2013-15 EPS estimates by 32-34%. Maintain SELL with a lower target price of HK$1.70.

Star Publications - Worst Over But Outlook Still Guarded (MKE)

Star Publications -
Hold (unchanged)
Share price: MYR2.46
Target price: MYR2.65 (from MYR2.41)
Worst Over But Outlook Still Guarded

Maintain HOLD with a higher TP of MYR2.65 (+10%). Star attributed its improved 3Q13 results largely to lower newsprint consumption and prices. Going forward, it will save MYR20m p.a. from rationalising its staff. We raise our FY14/FY15 earnings estimates by 8%/12% and excash DCF-based TP by 10% to MYR2.65 to reflect this. We also raise our yearly DPS estimate by 25% to 15sen. Dividend yields of >6% should limit downside risk to its share price for now. Maintain HOLD.

Parkson Holdings - 1Q14 Below Expectations (Kenanga)

Parkson Holdings -
Price: RM3.69
Target Price: RM2.97
1Q14 Below Expectations

Period  1Q14
Actual vs. Expectations The 1Q14 net profit of RM30.7m (-48% YoY) came in below expectations, accounting for only 11% of our and consensus full-year net forecasts. The variance from our forecast was due to lower-than-expected same-store-sales growth (SSSG) in China and higher-than-expected start-up stores losses.

Dividends  No dividend was declared during the quarter.

Padini - A Seasonally Stronger Quarter (Kenanga)

Padini Holdings Berhad -
Price: RM1.65
Target Price: RM1.70
A Seasonally Stronger Quarter

Period  1Q14
Actual vs. Expectations The 1Q14 net profit (NP) of RM27.7m is in line with expectations, accounting for 28.9% and 29.7% of the consensus and our FY14 full year estimates, respectively.

 The first quarter of the financial year is seasonally the strongest, averaging at 29.7% of full year earnings over the past five years.

Link REIT – NPI margin further improved, better-than-expected interim results (Phillip)

Link REIT  –
Closing price: 39.55
Target price: 37.20
NPI margin further improved, better-than-expected interim results
Rating: Reduce

1HFY14 results beat expectation due to margin improvement: Link REIT’s interim DPU came in at HK$80.22 cents, up 12.9% YoY, beating market consensus and was 3.6% higher than our estimate. It was mainly due to the better-than-expected net property income margin. Revenue in 1HFY14 climbed 9.3% YoY to HK$3,493 mn.

IOI Corporation - Demerger plan to unlock value (CIMB)

IOI Corporation -
Current RM5.46
Target RM5.96
Demerger plan to unlock value

IOI Corp's 1QFY6/14 core net profit (excluding net forex impact) was in line, at 26% of our and 25% of consensus full-year forecasts. Stronger property and manufacturing contributions more than offset the weaker plantation profit to lift 1Q core net profit by 15%. Reported earnings fell 50% yoy due to forex losses on its US$ borrowings. We maintain our earnings forecasts but our SOP-based target price goes up by 1% as we roll forward our valuation to end-2015. We retain our Trading Buy call and see short-term catalyst from the property demerger exercise expected to be completed in 1QCY14.

Tune Ins - It's time to fly (CIMB)

Tune Ins Holdings Bhd -
Current RM1.90
Target RM2.55
It's time to fly

We are encouraged by the good progress of Tune Ins's regional expansion plans for its travel insurance business, as revealed during today's conference call. These include tagging along with the expansion of AirAsia's network, M&As and for tie-ups with other airlines.

Our DDM-based target price (COE of 9.2%; long-term growth of 5%) is intact. We reaffirm our Outperform rating on Tune given the potential re-rating catalysts of (1) swift expansion of the travel insurance business, (2) EPS-accretive acquisitions in Indonesia, and (3) tie-ups with other airlines.

AirAsia X - Weak 3Q profits (CIMB)

AirAsia X Bhd -
Current RM1.04
Target RM1.23
Weak 3Q profits

AAX reported a 3Q13 core net profit of RM7m, which was below expectations as it failed to recoup the RM26m loss of the immediately preceding 2Q due to lower-than-expected yields. The 9M13 core earnings of RM22.8m were only 24% of our full-year estimate. As a result, we may cut our FY13 EPS forecast by up to 25% after tomorrow's analyst call, and also reassess our forecasts for FY14-15. We maintain Neutral and our target price for now (based on the sector average of 11x CY15 P/E), but highlight that these may also be reduced.

Friday, November 29, 2013

RH Petrogas : Roadshow And Operation Highlights (DMG)

RH Petrogas
Target Price: SGD1.38
Price: SGD0.59
Roadshow And Operation Highlights

 We took RHP’s management on a non-deal roadshow on Tuesday. The company has published its 2014 drilling programme, planned reserve upgrades, and schedule of upcoming news flow. Operationally, wireline logs indicate potential hydrocarbon zones in the Klagalo-1 well, while development wells at Klalin-15 and -17 have gas and condensate flows with rates to be confirmed. The stock is trading at a 35% discount to its production assets. Maintain BUY, with SGD1.38 TP.

Nam Cheong : Still at full steam (DBSV)

Nam Cheong Ltd:
BUY S$0.29
STI : 3,186.37
Price Target: 12-Month S$0.42 (Prev S$ 0.36)
Still at full steam;

•Potential early beneficiary of renewed strength in offshore support vessel (OSV) market
•Earnings execution above estimates YTD in FY13; FY13/14 EPS estimates revised up by 6-8%
•Expecting healthy 2-year earnings CAGR of 22%; further upside if FY15 built-to-stock programme bigger than expected
•Maintain BUY with TP revised up to S$0.42, as we roll over valuations to FY14 earnings

COSCO Corp: Time needed to scale offshore value chain (OCBC)

COSCO Corp:
Fair value S$0.61
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.005
versus: Current price S$0.73
Time needed to scale offshore value chain

2013 is looking to be the weakest year in terms of earnings for COSCO Corp (Singapore). After recording net profit of S$139.7m and S$105.7m in FY11 and FY12, respectively, net profit for FY13 looks set to be below S$50m. Indeed, after five quarters of either little cost overruns or reversal of provisions made earlier, COSCO returned to making provisions on its construction contracts again, dousing hopes that it is gaining footing on the execution front. Looking ahead, we expect the operating environment for the group to remain difficult. Any credit tightening in China may also affect the ability of customers to meet their financial obligations. Maintain SELL with S$0.61 fair value estimate.

Malaysian Bulk Carriers - Benign tides ahead (CIMB)

Malaysian Bulk Carriers -
Current RM1.72
Target RM2.01
Benign tides ahead

Maybulk's 9M13 core profit was above expectations at 94% of our full year forecasts, as bulk shipping losses were lower than we expected.

We raise our FY13-15 forecasts after incorporating lower bulk losses, and maintain Outperform. Our SOP-based target price is rolled over to end-FY14, but reduced slightly due to housekeeping matters. Share price rerating catalysts include the expected narrowing of dry bulk losses over the medium term as freight rates recover on the back of a slower pace of newbuilding deliveries.

Ascott Residence Trust : Valuations reasonable, awaiting acquisition (CIMB)

Ascott Residence Trust
Current S$1.18
Target S$1.15
Valuations reasonable, awaiting acquisition

▊ ART’s share price has fallen c.9% since the announcement of its 1-for-5 rights issue and our subsequent downgrade. We think that most of the negatives have been priced in. The stock trades at 0.93x FY14 P/BV, in line with the 0.94x average of its peers and reasonable in our view. Our DDM-based target price (at discount rate of 8.5%) is unchanged at S$1.15. We upgrade ART to Neutral from Underperform, as we believe negatives from its rights issue have been mostly priced in. We also see potential acquisitions as re-rating catalysts.

CapitaMalls Asia : Building an edge in China (CIMB)

CapitaMalls Asia  
Current S$2.02
Target S$2.30
Building an edge in China

▊ Our recent ground checks on CMA’s retail malls in China reinforce our view that asset management remains its edge over local developers. Asset build is on track, footfalls are encouraging and more malls are maturing. We expect its operational metrics to improve in FY14-15. We tweak our FY13-15 core EPS by 1-2% and nudge up our target price (still based on 10% discount to RNAV) for slightly higher rental estimates after our China trip. We reiterate our Outperform rating, with rental yield improvements and potential asset recycling being the catalysts.

曾淵滄專欄 29.11.13:繼續樂觀迎接新高

恒指終於創出今年的新高,可喜可賀。過去幾個月,我多次告訴大家港股的估值相當低,不論PE還是PB都低,大家應該樂觀地看後市。還有,過去幾個月裏,三、四線股出現炒作,一般大市如果無力往上升,三、四線股也無法維持這麼長時間的炒作。現在總算等到恒指創今年新高的一天,下一個目標自然是創歷史新高。恒指於2007年的歷史高位跌下來之後,至今已經六年了,這麼長的時間仍未創新高也確是少見。過去40年,也就是從1973年算起,恒指由一個高位到另一個高位,從來沒有超過八年,最短的一次只有3年,那是從1997年高位至2000年高位。現在讓我們樂觀地迎接未來的高位吧!

CapitaLand : Building an edge in China (CIMB)

CapitaLand  
Current S$3.01
Target S$3.96
Building an edge in China

▊ Our recent ground checks on CapLand’s China projects suggest that it is gradually establishing an edge in large-scale mixed developments. Asset build is on track and retail footfalls are encouraging. Its attitude of improving returns at the project level is also a positive, in our view. We tweak our FY13-15 core EPS by 1-2% but keep our target price, based on a 20% discount to RNAV. CapLand remains an Outperform, with catalysts from more capital recycling and yield uplifts.
 
What Happened
Last week, we toured CapLand’s projects in Shanghai and parts of south China (Guangzhou and Shenzhen), and also interacted with senior management and ground staff.  

Thursday, November 28, 2013

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT : Venturing into Australia (S&P)

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT
Price: SGD1.50 Date: November 26, 2013
Venturing into Australia

First acquisition in Australia. AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT Management Limited (the Manager) has proposed to acquire 49% interest in Optus Centre, Sydney for AUD184.4 mln, marking AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT’s (the Trust) first foray into Australia. The transaction is expected to be completed by 1Q14, subject to approvals by the relevant Australian regulatory authorities and unitholders.

CapitaMall Trust - Fairly Valued; Uninspiring Catalysts (MKE)

CapitaMall Trust -
Hold (from Buy)
Share price: SGD1.95
Target price: SGD2.10 (from SGD2.15)
Fairly Valued; Uninspiring Catalysts

Downgrade to HOLD. We downgrade CMT to HOLD on valuation grounds and lackluster DPU growth prospects as most of its eligible portfolio malls have already undergone asset enhancements (little boost to our DDMderived TP).

Sunway REIT - A totally new Sunway Putra Place (CIMB)

Sunway REIT -
Current RM1.30
Target RM1.37
 A totally new Sunway Putra Place

We believe that Sunway REIT's accelerated refurbishment plans for Sunway Putra Place would result in a more than doubling of its NPI by FY16 due to increased rental and higher occupancy rates.

But we maintain our Neutral call on the stock. We revised downwards our DDM-based target price to RM1.37 after adjusting our cost of equity assumptions. Although Sunway REIT's AEI plans for Sunway Putra Place gives us a more positive vibe on its overall earnings outlook in the longer-run, we believe the current broader market offers investors higher returns as opposed to REITs. Furthermore, the likelihood of higher interest rates next year further dampens the attractiveness of REITs.

DBKL assessment rate hike could affect M-REITs (CIMB)

REIT - DBKL assessment rate hike could affect M-REITs

Although the hike in DBKL assessment rates will have a negative impact on the REITs' net property income, we believe that most of it will be passed on to their tenants. The rate hike will have a bigger impact on the REITs with high exposure to Kuala Lumpur properties. We retain our Neutral stance on the REIT sector. Apart from the hike in assessment rates, we believe that the risk of higher interest rates in 2014 and thus, the narrowing yield spreads, will dampen the investor appetite for M-REITs. For exposure to Malaysian property, we advise investors to buy Mah Sing, which is currently our top pick for the property sector.

Wilmar: Forms China corn starch JV (OCBC)

Wilmar:
Fair value S$3.55
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.06
versus: Current price S$3.59
Forms China corn starch JV

Wilmar International Limited (WIL) recently announced that it has formed a JV with Tereos Internacional to manufacture corn starch in China – this is its second commercial collaboration with Tereos. However, we do not see any immediate boost to earnings. Meanwhile, we note that WIL’s share price has done very well (+17%) since our upgrade to Buy on 6 Sep; but as WIL looks fairly priced around current levels versus unchanged S$3.55 fair value (based on 12.5x FY14F EPS), we opt to maintain our HOLD rating. We also advocate taking profit closer to S$3.70.

曾淵滄專欄 28.11.13:中國金融人才激增

多年前,當四大國有銀行準備到香港上市時,有外資大行發出評語:「中國所有的銀行,理論上已經破產了。」

炒垃圾債照賺錢
何以有上述評語?理由是在外資大行眼中,中國所有銀行手中的資產,大多是不良資產,是無法清還的壞賬。根據海外常規,這些不良資產的真正資產值得狠狠打個折扣,資產值就大幅縮水,極可能低過負債值。換言之,淨資產應該是負數,理論上已經破產了。

Biosensors International : Sale by largest shareholder (OCBC)

Biosensors International Group:
Fair value S$0.80
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.025
versus: Current price S$0.98
Sale by largest shareholder

Shandong Weigao (SW), which is Biosensors International Group’s (BIG) largest shareholder, announced that it has agreed to dispose its entire 21.7% stake in BIG to CB Medical Holdings Limited (CBMH) at a sale price of S$1.05 per share. According to a SGX-net filing, CBMH is part of CITIC Private Equity Funds Management, a large private equity fund in China. As SW will incur a loss of ~CNY449.0m from this transaction, we believe it also partly reflects the lack of confidence in BIG’s prospects going forward. We do not foresee any impact from SW’s sale on the operations of BIG. While we do not rule out the possibility of a privatisation exercise on BIG by CBMH in the future, we continue to value the stock based on our expectations of its operational performance. Hence, maintain SELL and S$0.80 fair value estimate on BIG.

Wednesday, November 27, 2013

大媽撐起 周大福盈利翻倍

大媽撐起 周大福盈利翻倍
八成收入來自內地客
2013年11月27日
【明報專訊】受4、5月「中國大媽」搶金潮「帶挈」,周大福(1929)截至今年9月底止的上半年大賺35億元,按年升92%,並遠較市場預期的29.8億元為佳。派息亦闊綽,每股派17仙,按年大增1.8倍。港澳地區業務較中國內地更標青,主要是因為內地客大舉來港買金及珠寶。儘管中期報捷,周大福管理層預告搶金潮退去後,下半年銷售將轉弱。


昨天公布業績前,周大福股價跌0.3%,報12.3元。4月中國際金價急插,掀起一輪大媽搶金潮,周大福中期報告顯示,9月底止半年期間,黃金產品的銷售佔營業額比例大升至65.2%,按年增長9.7個百分點。受惠於黃金銷售暢旺,集團中、港業務均做好,同店銷售增長分別達21.5%及47%,帶動整體同店銷售增長33.2%。銷售表現強勁,主要來自內地客戶的消費。集團稱,透過銀聯或人民幣的付款,佔港澳地區總營業額59.6%,計及內地市場的收入,內地客戶對營業額的貢獻高達80.4%。

Biosensors Int'l - BIG belief leads to BIG value (CIMB)

Biosensors Int'l -
Current S$0.98
Target S$1.19
BIG belief leads to BIG value.

A change in major shareholder from a strategic one to a value-driven one augurs well for BIG. Paying a premium over BIG's last closing price, CITIC's move to replace Weigao signals its greater ambition, in our view. We keep our EPS and SOP-based target price. Our unchanged contrarian Outperform rating hinges on the instant success of BIG's Spectrum Dynamics, product launches, regulatory approvals and M&A accretion. More importantly, new shareholder, CITIC, could seek to enhance its investment value through more active participation.

Parkson Retail Asia : Good value (CIMB)

Parkson Retail Asia
Current S$1.05
Target S$1.51
Good value

▊ Parkson’s management reiterated during the luncheon we hosted for management and investors in Singapore that Malaysia should benefit from a stronger 2H. However, investors hoping for corporate actions may be disappointed as there are no immediate plans. Nevertheless, we retain our positive view as the share price has yet to react to Malaysia’s recovering profitability. We maintain our Outperform call and target price, which is still based on 20x CY15 P/E, in line with regional peers. CY15 P/E is just 14x at the current share price. The stock may be catalysed by the improving profitability in Malaysia.

Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust - SGD 250mn war chest for acquisitions (SCB)

Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust -
PRICE as of 21 Nov 2013 SGD 0.43
PRICE TARGET SGD 0.48
SGD 250mn war chest for acquisitions

■ Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust (LMRT) raised SGD 100mn through a private placement.

■ Together with a SGD 150mn MTN issuance in October 2013, it now has SGD 250mn to finance future acquisitions.

China Merchants Hldgs (Pacific) - Full speed ahead (DBSV)

China Merchants Hldgs (Pacific) -
BUY S$0.905
STI : 3,172.85
Price Target: 12-Month S$1.20 (Prev S$1.07)
Full speed ahead

• Raise FY13 and FY14 estimates by 10% and 11% respectively, to factor in better traffic numbers and lower finance costs

• Steady traffic growth and early repayment of loans to drive firm organic earnings expansion

SPH REIT: Retail blue chip with just valuation (OCBC)

SPH REIT:
Fair value S$0.99
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.053
versus: Current price S$0.98
Retail blue chip with just valuation

SPH REIT is a Singapore-based REIT established principally to invest in a portfolio of income-producing real estate used primarily for retail purposes in Asia-Pacific. The initial portfolio comprises two commercial properties in Singapore, namely Paragon, upscale retail mall and medical suite/office property, and The Clementi Mall, a mid-market suburban mall.

曾淵滄專欄 27.11.13:炒奶業股見好要收

中共十八屆三中全會,終於決定放寬持續多年的一孩政策。在三中全會前,奶業股已經炒起,三中全會拍板放寬一孩政策後,奶業股炒得更兇,有些奶業股的PE已經炒至接近50倍。我認為,不論放寬一孩政策能為奶類行業帶來多大好處,PE值過高總是應該要小心,昨日上市的原生態牧業(1431)在三中全會結束後截止認購,反應很好,可是,原生態昨日竟然跌破上市價。

長期而言,我依然看好中國的奶類行業,只可惜現在股民炒過頭,被三中全會的好消息沖昏了頭,希望一段日子後,這股炒風冷卻,可以再趁低吸納奶業股。

China’s Shipbuilding Industry Consolidation – The Start Of A Revival For Yangzijiang?

22 NOVEMBER 2013
China’s Shipbuilding Industry Consolidation – The Start Of A Revival For Yangzijiang?
By Nicholas Tan
On the stock market front, investors have reacted well to the actions taken by the Chinese authority to consolidate the shipbuilding industry by showing a bout of confidence for Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (Holdings), which will be a likely beneficiary of the government’s revised twelfth five-year plan. So how will the political intervention shape the future of Yangzijiang

Tuesday, November 26, 2013

百盛海外迎挑戰

百盛海外迎挑戰
Created 11/26/2013 - 17:10
(吉隆坡26日訊)百盛(PARKSON,5657,主板貿服組)2014財政年首季業績表現遜預期,分析員對前景看法不一。

儘管該公司首季營業額微揚0.9%至8億3千132萬2千令吉,但淨利卻從前期的5千903萬9千令吉大跌48%至3千零73萬8千令吉,分析員紛表示,該公司再報較弱季度業績,表現遜預期。

興業研究指,淨利下滑主要因經營環境挑戰性日增,大馬業務因有3家表現良好的分行暫停營業以進行裝修工作而走弱,同時,中國業務也受新分行造成的虧損以及上海分行裝修所拖累。

Biosensors International : Shandong Weigao disposes BIG (DBSV)

Biosensors International Group
HOLD S$0.94
STI : 3,172.38
Price Target : 12-Month S$ 0.94
Shandong Weigao disposes BIG;

•Buyer CB Medical Holdings likely to be a PE fund
•Disposal by Shandong Weigao signifies loss of confidence in the stent business
•BIG remains fundamentally challenged
•CB raising its stake further in BIG could be a catalyst

What's new
Shandong Weigao sells its entire stake in BIG.  Shandong Weigao announced that it is selling its entire 21% stake in BIG for US$312m at S$1.05 per share (c.12% premium to yesterday’s close of S$0.94).

Saizen REIT : Vulnerable to exchange risks (NRA)

Saizen REIT
Current Price S$0.92
Fair Value S$1.03
Vulnerable to exchange risks

 1QFY14 operational performance was largely in line with expectations. 1QFY13 result was largely within our expectations. Revenue dipped 0.3% QoQ to JPY989.4m due a seasonal fall in average occupancy rates which resulted in the average occupancy rate dipping to 91.2% in 1QFY14 (4QFY13 : 92.1%, 1QFY13 : 91.7%). Net property income grew 3.3% QoQ to JPY701.2m due to lower repair and renovation expenses but we are expecting these costs to increase over FY14 as more repair and renovation works are in the pipeline to raise the competitiveness of Saizen’s properties amid an improving leasing market. NAV per unit at 24 Scts (JPY96.9) as at 30 Sep 2014 dipped in both yen and Singapore dollar (S$) terms due to distribution payment. We have kept our forecast largely unchanged.

Tiong Woon : Earnings growth on track with possible one-time gain in 2Q14 (UOBKH)

Tiong Woon Corporation
Share Price S$0.350
Earnings growth on track with possible one-time gain in 2Q14.

• TWC reported an 11% yoy increase in net profit to S$4.6m in 1Q14, driven by a rise in revenues and margins from the Heavy Lift and Haulage and Trading segments. Total revenue rose 3% yoy to S$44.6m and gross profit jumped 30% to S$14.8m with gross profit margin improving to 33% from 26% in 1Q13. The Heavy Lift and Haulage segment recorded a 6% yoy increase in revenue to S$36.3m and contributed 81% of the Group’s revenue.

Thai Beverage - Solid performer could gain from restructuring (SCB)

Thai Beverage -
PRICE as of 19 Nov 2013 SGD 0.50
PRICE TARGET SGD 0.72
Solid performer could gain from restructuring

■ Thai Beverage’s (Thai Bev) 3Q13 results indicate weakening volume growth, particularly in the core spirits division.

■ We cut our 2013/14 spirits and beer volume forecasts by 4%/5% due to the excise tax hike in Thailand. We lower our 2013/14 earnings estimates by 8%.

曾淵滄專欄 26.11.13:伊朗解禁 油價看跌

今年8月,魯哈尼當選伊朗新任總統,他被外界認為屬溫和派。上任不久,魯哈尼就與美國總統奧巴馬秘密磋商,表示願意放棄核武器計劃,以換取西方國家停止經濟及貿易制裁。安理會五個常任理事國(美、英、法、中、俄)和德國,於上星期開始與伊朗正式談判,並於11月24日達成初步協定。根據協議,伊朗未來半年內將停止提煉純度逾5%的濃縮鈾,以及進行多種與研發核武器有關的活動,而西方國家則同意,暫時停止伊朗的石油化工產品的部份出口限制,估計伊朗可以取得70億美元(約546億港元)的外匯收入。

Hutchison Port Holdings Trust - Attractive valuation after recent share price correction (SCB)

Hutchison Port Holdings Trust -
PRICE as of 19 Nov 2013 USD 0.70
PRICE TARGET USD 0.75
Attractive valuation after recent share price correction

■ Despite a poor throughput performance, we believe the 2013 dividend of HKD 0.40 guided by management is achievable.

■ We believe HPHT’s throughput should grow in 2014 due to increased international transhipments via Yantian, the low base of 2013, and improving global trade in 2014.

Monday, November 25, 2013

麥嘉華(Marc Faber)筆記 25.11.13:寧買港股 也不沾手美股

在美國,青年人的就業率顯著下降;同時,很多已屆退休年齡的打工仔,因為生活迫人而無奈地押後退休計劃;加上貧富懸殊未見改善,到頭來普羅大眾會要求政府向富人和高收入一族多收一點稅,劫富濟貧。

我不是說針對富人的稅率提高,將會即時令股市大跌,而是要指出低稅率環境恐怕會不復見,而低稅率正是促使美股於2008年之後拾級而上的催化劑。

此外,美股自1981年以來一直受惠於低息環境,可是這個正面因素似乎正逐步消失。

若隆市门牌税调涨成定局 大马产托盈利恐收窄

若隆市门牌税调涨成定局 大马产托盈利恐收窄
Created 11/24/2013 - 09:47
(吉隆坡23日讯)假设吉隆坡市政厅(DBKL)落实调高门牌税,那么在市中心拥有产业的大马产业投资信托公司(REITs),明年或难逃盈利收窄的命运。

根据多份报告,吉隆坡市政厅建议重新估价产业,估值涨幅介于100至300%。

鉴于门牌税是跟着产业价值浮动,这意味着门牌税也会随之上扬。

SMRT :Talking reforms, costs and long-term strategy (DB)

SMRT Corporation -
Management meeting: Talking reforms, costs and long-term strategy
Generally positive feedback from management meeting
We recently met SMRT’s CEO Mr Desmond Kuek and CFO Miss Catherine Lee. Apart from discussion on the business outlook, what we also found interesting was management’s comment that public perception of the company (as tracked on their Facebook page) had improved in recent months, with similarly encouraging trends in staff morale.

Rex International : No change in potential (DBSV)

Rex International
BUY S$0.615
STI: 3,172.38
Price Target: 12-Month S$1.15 (Prev S$1.27)
No change in potential

• Foray into oil well stimulation technology through tie-up with Swiss firm could yield complementary earnings stream in future
• Meanwhile, progress on new licence adds and drilling plans at existing assets are all on track
• Balance sheet fortified by share placement
• Thus, recent sell down seems unjustified; reiterate BUY with adjusted TP of S$1.15

RH Petrogas: Market Loses Sight Of Fundamental Value (DMG)

RH Petrogas: Market Loses Sight Of Fundamental Value
(BUY,SGD0.54, TP: SGD1.38)

RHP’s share price fell by almost 20% on news that the Zircon-1 well did not flow. This is equivalent to a SGD99m loss in market value due to a well costing SGD8m, and whose cost is recoverable. Meanwhile, the stock is trading at a 44% discount to its production assets alone, ascribing zero value to 1,074mmboe of 2C and prospective resources in appraisal, development and exploration assets. Reiterate BUY, with SGD1.38 TP.

F & N - Value uncapped (DBSV)

F & N -
BUY S$5.55
STI: 3,251.78
(Upgrade from HOLD)
Price Target: 12-Month S$6.50 (Prev S$9.52)
Value uncapped

• Upgrade to BUY, as shareholders’ value is unlocked through dividend-in-specie/listing FCL
• Outcome of MBL’s arbitration uncertain, but impact on RNAV is low, at 2.5% in our worst case scenario
• Current market price implies above average 47% RNAV discount, despite FCL’s established position

曾淵滄專欄 25.11.13:旺市膽子可大一點

上星期美股屢創新高,道指上周五收市衝上16064點,破了16000點大關,港股只要再升約1%,就可以創今年新高,向2007年的歷史紀錄前進。整個股市活躍起來,只要看看那些二、三線股的炒作,讀者們就應該知道,好些市場的炒家大戶已經入場,以康健(3886)為例,過去一星期,股價升了50%,不足四個月,股價上升5倍。買中的人,相信可以過一個愉快的聖誕假期。康健只是其中一個例子,現在,市場上股價在極短時間內上升一倍的股多得很,這是整體股市準備更上一層樓的現象,各位的膽子可以大一點。

CapitaMalls Asia : First foray into Guangzhou (CIMB)

CapitaMalls Asia  
Current S$2.01
Target S$2.26
First foray into Guangzhou

▊ CMA’s latest acquisition in Guangzhou is its first but is unlikely to be its last. The pricing looks reasonable for a site in a tier-1 city and leaves scope for yield enhancements after one leasing cycle. Earnings downtime is also reduced by partial completion slated for end-2014. We are overall positive on this deal though the immediate impact on RNAV is expected to be muted. We lift our target price (still based on a 10% discount to RNAV) and adjust our FY13-15 core EPS by +2%/-3% for this acquisition. We reiterate our Outperform rating, with rental yield improvements and potential asset recycling being the catalysts.

Sunday, November 24, 2013

航空業烽火連天‧亞航和馬航逆風飛行

航空業烽火連天‧亞航和馬航逆風飛行
Created 11/24/2013 - 19:00
大馬航空業點燃了戰火,一年半前坐鎮雅加達的兩名亞洲航空(AIRASIA,5099,主板貿服組)要員丹斯里東尼與拿督卡瑪魯丁,鑑於大馬基地烽火延燒,不得不暫緩印尼的擴張計劃,回返大馬專注克服大馬營運的各項挑戰!

在短短期限內,整個航空生態已有些微轉變,馬航(MAS,3786,主板貿服組)從當初被“看死”情況,到今日逐步收復失去的客源,情勢已經有了大逆轉,其價值定位也已改寫。

造船业面对同样的挑战,但命运各有不同

造船业面对同样的挑战,但命运各有不同
文: 吴灵安 (译:朱爱伦) 2013年11月22日 展望
自全球金融危机爆发至今,造船业经历了风风雨雨的日子。甚至连中国最大的私有造船公司中国熔盛重工集团都得向政府寻求支援,因其船只订单减少、在2013年上半年和FY12蒙亏及储备金锐减。

在全球贸易疲弱的局势下,船运业对船只的需求偏低,而中国船厂的产量增加令船只供应过剩。运输费在供过于求的情况下回落,用于衡量主要原料海运运费的指数波罗的海干散货指数(Baltic Dry Index)从2008年5月的11,793点的高位下滑至2013年11月18日的1,500点。因此,造船订单减少必会打压造船商的毛利。

YTL Power International - 1Q14 Inline But Again No Dividends (Kenanga)

YTL Power International -
Price: RM1.94
Target Price: RM1.97
1Q14 Inline But Again No Dividends

Period  1Q14
Actual vs. Expectations 1Q14 net profit of RM234.8m came in within expectations, which accounted for 22% of our full-year FY14 estimate and 21% of market consensus.

Dividends  No dividend was declared again, making this the fourth-straight dry quarter vs. 0.94 sen declared in 1Q13.

AirAsia - Malaysia earnings down 22% yoy (CIMB)

AirAsia Bhd -
Current RM2.51
Target RM2.55
Malaysia earnings down 22% yoy

Given the level of competition in the marketplace, we had expected weak results but AirAsia's 9M13 core net profit of RM376m still fell below our expectations. Due to yield pressure, it accounted for just half of our previous full-year forecast against a more typical 55-60%. We believe yield pressure will persist in 2014 as MAS is intent on defending its market share. As such, we downgrade from Outperform to Neutral and cut FY13-15 core EPS estimates 16-20% for lower yields. Our target price is also reduced, still based on 11x CY15 P/E, the sector average. We expect only pedestrian group EPS growth in FY14 and FY15 as the Malaysia earnings fall, only to be offset by better associate earnings.

跟著股神準沒錯?股神也有魔咒!巴菲特績效不佳的隔年美股必跌?



美股奔牛節,索羅斯看空美股被軋爆,金融巨鱷真的輸了?



AirAsia X - 3Q13 Tops Expectations (MKE)

AirAsia X -
Buy (unchanged)
Share price: MYR1.04
Target price: MYR1.30 (unchanged)
3Q13 Tops Expectations

Smooth cruising. AirAsia X’s 9M13 core net profit of MYR35.4m, from a core loss of MYR30.0m in 9M12, was slightly better than our expectations. Management is doing a good job in filling up the aircraft, maintaining decent yields and keeping unit cost under control. It has also successfully shielded itself from the fare war that is plaguing the domestic sector. We keep our earnings forecast, our BUY recommendation and target price of MYR1.30/share unchanged pending an analyst conference call later today. The target price is premised on 15x FY14 PER.

Shipbuilding Industry Weathers The Same Storm, Reaps Different Fortunes

22 NOVEMBER 2013
Shipbuilding Industry Weathers The Same Storm, Reaps Different Fortunes
By Shane Goh

Since the global financial crisis, the shipbuilding industry has sailed through choppy waters. Even China’s largest private shipbuilder, China Rongsheng Heavy Industries Group, was forced to seek government assistance after a slump in vessel orders, losses in the first half of 2013 and FY12 as well as burning through its cash reserves.

Amid sluggish global trade, the ship transportation industry faced a low demand for vessels while due to an increased production at Chinese shipyards led to an oversupply of ships. Facing both demand and supply pressures, freight rates declined for ship liners as seen by the fall in the Baltic Dry Index, an assessment of the price of moving major raw materials by sea, from its high of 11,793 points set in May 2008 to 1,500 points as of 18 November 2013.

曾淵滄-股市资讯专栏 22.11.2013-三中全会“深化”改革,提倡市场经济

三中全会“深化”改革,提倡市场经济
文: 曾渊沧博士 2013年11月22日 曾渊沧博士专栏
今年5月,当美国联邦储备局主席伯南克宣布美国可能退市之后,新加坡与香港的股市就一路下跌至6月。同时,中国也出现钱荒现象,人民银行收紧银根,上海综合指数一度跌破2,000点。恒生指数也跌破20,000点,一时人心惶惶。当时我写过好几篇文章,表达我对股市乐观。而乐观的理由是香港股与中国A股的估值都已经很便宜,本益比(PE)值和股价账面值比(PB)值都很低,下跌空间有限。当时我自己也买入中国A股挂牌基金(ETF)。同时,我也开始筹备出版新书,论述我比较熟悉的股票。

中国造船业的整合是否为扬子江带来新的开始?

中国造船业的整合是否为扬子江带来新的开始?
文: 陈挚文 (译:麦美莹) 2013年11月22日 企业摘要
中国领导层倡议整合造船业,投资者对此表示欢迎,从他们给予扬子江船厂控股(Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (Hldgs))的信心便可见一斑,后者很可能从中国修订的第12个五年计划中受惠。现在就让我们来探讨政治干预对扬子江的未来发展有什么影响。

中国造船业面对十分激烈的竞争。这个受到产能过剩影响的行业近几个月来出现“大地震”,因为多个船坞结束营业,有些则把产能削减。出现这个现象是因为中国政府决心为造船业进行整顿,把规模较小、效率不高的船厂淘汰。首阶段的整合行动令信誉良好的船坞生意大增,国营船坞的造船订单大大提高,原因是顾客对大规模船厂的信心较多,它们通常也会准时交货。
Warren E. Buffett(沃伦•巴菲特)
Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful
别人贪婪时我恐惧, 别人恐惧时我贪婪
投资只需学好两门课: 一,是如何给企业估值,二,是如何看待股市波动
吉姆·罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)
“错过时机”胜于“搞错对象”:不会全军覆没!”
做自己熟悉的事,等到发现大好机会才投钱下去

乔治·索罗斯(George Soros)

“犯错误并没有什么好羞耻的,只有知错不改才是耻辱。”

如果操作过量,即使对市场判断正确,仍会一败涂地。

李驰(中国巴菲特)
高估期间, 卖对, 不卖也对, 买是错的。
低估期间, 买对, 不买也是对, 卖是错的。

Tan Teng Boo


There’s no such thing as defensive stocks.Every stock can be defensive depending on what price you pay for it and what value you get,
冷眼(冯时能)投资概念
“买股票就是买公司的股份,买股份就是与陌生人合股做生意”。
合股做生意,则公司股份的业绩高于一切,而股票的价值决定于盈利。
价值是本,价格是末,故公司比股市重要百倍。
曹仁超-香港股神/港股明灯
1.有智慧,不如趁势
2.止损不止盈
成功者所以成功,是因为不怕失败!失败者所以失败,是失败后不再尝试!
曾淵滄-散户明灯
每逢灾难就是机会,而是在灾难发生时贱价买股票,然后放在一边,耐性地等灾难结束
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