Saturday, November 23, 2013

伯南克:QE退场后,利率仍将偏低

伯南克:QE退场后,利率仍将偏低
文: 彭博社 (译:杨佳文) 2013年11月22日 展望
美国联邦储备局主席伯南克表示,自联储局实行购买债券的计划以来,劳动力市场的状况出现“实质性改善”,而在联储局停止购买债券之后,基准利率可能将会长期保持在低水平。

伯南克于11月19日在华盛顿对经济师致词时表示,在结束购债后,联邦基金利率很可能维持在接近零水平一段时间,或许一直至失业率跌至6.5%以下。他表示,联储局要在看到“良好的数据”后才会开始减少购买债券。

種植公司或掀印尼上市潮

種植公司或掀印尼上市潮
Created 11/22/2013 - 17:30
(吉隆坡22日訊)印尼政府規定非上市種植公司不能在印尼持有逾10萬公頃的地段,促使大馬種植公司紛紛開始在印尼外覓春天,這也或掀起大馬種植公司在印尼的上市潮。

印尼政府早前實施新條例規定非上市的種植公司或集團,僅能在印尼擁有最多達10萬公頃的地庫。隨大馬種植業者在印尼擁有顯著種植地,該條例顯然已影響了大馬種植業者。

受新條例影響,大馬種植公司最近悄悄開始在印尼以外的地方拓展種植地;森那美(SIME,4197,主板貿服組)昨日也在股東大會中率先表態,或先讓印尼種植業務掛牌以解決條例的燃眉之急。

Parkson Retail Group 3Q13: Still Struggling (UOBKH)

Parkson Retail Group
Share Price HK$2.75
Target Price HK$1.70
3Q13: Still Struggling

Parkson’s 3Q13 results again fell short of expectations, with net profit falling 77% yoy to just Rmb33m. Same-store sales fell 4.2% yoy as footfall deteriorated further. Ongoing renovations have taken a toll on footfall, but more worrying is management’s strategy to open more stores when 20 of its 57 stores are in the red. We cut 2013-15 EPS estimates by 32-34%. Maintain SELL with a lower target price of HK$1.70.

Star Publications - End to Eight Quarters of Contraction (MKE)

Star Publications (Malaysia) -
Hold (from Sell)
Share price: MYR2.52
Target price: MYR2.41 (from MYR2.12)
End to Eight Quarters of Contraction

Finally achieving positive turnaround? Star’s results were above our expectations, largely due to cost rationalisation. We therefore raise our earnings estimates by 15-16% for FY13-15. In the same vein, we upgrade Star from SELL to HOLD on a new DCF-based TP of RM2.41 (+14%). As this upgrade is solely predicated on cost rationalisation, and there is still earnings risk from the GST implementation and further subsidy cuts, we still see no reason to buy Star. The company will host a results briefing on 26 Nov 2013 and we will obtain more updates then.

Notion Vtec - Below Expectations (Kenanga)

Notion Vtec -
Price: RM0.755
Target Price: RM0.81
Below Expectations

Period  4Q13/FY13
Actual vs. Expectations  Notion Vtec reported 4Q13 net profit (NP) of RM2.0m (-89% YoY, -95% QoQ), taking its FY13 NP to RM21.8m (-56%).

 Below expectations. Excluding the exceptional items of: (i) gain of RM8.2m arising from additional gains from a fire insurance claim, (ii) impairment losses on inventory of RM2m, the FY13 core NP of RM15.6m (-68%) accounted for only 86% and 89% of our and the consensus full year estimates, respectively. The main negative deviation was the unrealised derivative losses of RM3.8m.

AirAsia - Don’t Mess With the Captain (MKE)

AirAsia -
Buy(from Hold)
Share price: MYR2.51
Target price: MYR2.80(from MYR2.90)
Don’t Mess With the Captain

Slightly below. AirAsia’s 9M13 core net profit of MYR383.0m (-15.5% YoY) makes up 62% of ours and 51% of full year 2013 consensus. The Malaysia and Thai airlines performance performed as expected, but the Indonesian and Philippine units underperformed. Other associates have shown impressive recovery. We cut our FY13-15 earnings by -10.5% / - 15.9% / -15.3% to factor in the latest capacity rollout and business outlook. We rollover the base year to 2014, and upgrade the stock to a BUY (from Hold) with a marginally lower target price of MYR2.80/share (-3%). This is based on the global LCC’s average PER of 11.0x.

Engtex - Take Profit For Now (Kenanga)

Engtex Group Bhd -
Last Price - RM1.68
Kenanga  RM1.68
Take Profit For Now

INVESTMENT MERIT

- Share priced jumped 47%. Since our Trading Buy call at 12th Sept 2013 at RM1.16, the stock has surged by 47%, outperforming the FBMKLCI index (+6.5%). We believe the stock has gained some recognition from the investors. Engtex has been identified as one of the water-related stocks that will benefit from the upcoming conclusion of Selangor’s water sector restructuring. At current price, we advocate investors to take profit as it is traded at +2-standard deviation above its 5-year historical average PER.

Dr ChanYanChong-Commentary - 22.11.2013

 22 NOVEMBER 2013
China’s Third Plenum “Deepens” Reforms; Pushes Towards Market Economy
By Dr Chan Yan Chong

When US Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke announced that it may be tapering its stimulus package in May this year, Singapore and Hong Kong stock markets went into a correction which lasted until June. In the meantime, the People’s Bank of China tightened its monetary policy, which sparked a liquidity panic that saw the Shanghai Composite Index (SCI) fall below the 2,000-point level. The Hang Seng Index (HSI) also fell below 20,000 points, causing much consternation among the men-in-the-street.

Back then, I penned a few articles to express my optimism in the stock market, reasoning that Hong Kong and Chinese A-share stocks were already priced very reasonably; price-to-earnings ratio and price-to-book ratio were at such low levels that they had limited room to fall. Standing by my words, I bought exchange traded funds of Chinese A-share stocks. At the same time, I also began preparing for my new book which talked about shares that I am more familiar with.

YTL Land : Continual strong demand for Sentul (DBSV)

YTL Land
BUY RM0.97
KLCI : 1,794.65
Price Target : 12-month RM1.40
Continual strong demand for Sentul

• Results in line, Capers construction on track
• Continual strong take-up for Fennel; approval of MRT 2 & 3 lines could be re-rating catalysts
• Maintain Buy and RM1.40 TP

Highlights
Within expectations. 1QFY14 net profit came in at RM3.3m (+63% y-o-y, -82% q-o-q), constituting 13% of our full-year estimate. Growth y-o-y was driven by contribution from Capers@Sentul East condos and sale of completed units of Sentosa Cove@Singapore villas. We expect earnings to pick up in future quarters for the fully sold Capers as progress billings have reached 70% - on track for completion by end-2014 (we do not discount the possibility of early delivery to save on interest payable as the project offers Developers- Interest-Bearing-Scheme, DIBS).

Friday, November 22, 2013

楊忠禮電力財測不變

楊忠禮電力財測不變
Created 11/22/2013 - 17:30
(吉隆坡22日訊)楊忠禮電力(YTLPOWR,6742,主板基建計劃組)交出符合預期的首季業績後,分析員認為股票回退、國內外資產收購計劃等有助於保持投資者購興,普遍維持財測。

新加坡發電產能提高,以致盈利減少25%,加上耗資龐大的WiMAX計劃和投資部門分別蒙受4千980萬令吉和1億零950萬令吉稅前虧損,造成楊忠禮電力首季淨利挫跌7.11%至2億3千482萬2千令吉。

興業研究表示,該公司雖然連續第四季“零派息”,並在過去5個月回購了高達2億4千150萬股,隨後更宣佈取消4億7千740萬股庫存股中的2億5千萬股,進一步提高了回退股票的可能。

大马魅力渐失?

大马魅力渐失?
Created 11/22/2013 - 12:44
地产顾问公司莱坊(Knight Frank)早前发表的报告指出,是次预算案宣布的打房措施,将导致房产发展商和买家出走海外、房产价格转至缓慢增长,以及市场投资焦点从住宅转向商业项目。

在上调产业盈利税(RPGT)及取消“发展商承担利息计划”(DIBS)后,大马的房地产投资回酬与区域其他国家相比略显失色,因此,投资者或将选择在其他国家置产。

莱坊表示,大马资金流出在2006年为11亿5000万美元,在2011年至2012年维持在50亿美元(157亿令吉),而大马人首选的海外投资市场为伦敦,其他则是新加坡、澳洲和美国。

打房不断,现在该买或卖?

打房不断,现在该买或卖?
Created 11/22/2013 - 11:35
在预算案公布前,市场就已流言四起,短线投资者早已杯弓蛇影,更有市场人士劝请计划购屋者趁预算案公布前提前购屋,期间,也有不少人担忧成为“打房”受害者,赶紧在10月前脱售房产套利。

在一片沽售声中,预算案前的房市更显热闹,但随着一切尘埃落定,接下来的房市走势将趋向何方?

短期内,大家该买还是该卖?

Sunway - The Five Pillars of Sustainability… (Kenanga)

Sunway Berhad -
Price: RM2.74
Target Price: RM3.08
The Five Pillars of Sustainability…

Initiating Coverage on SUNWAY with an OUTPERFORM recommendation and a TP of RM3.08 based on our SoP valuation, which provides a total return of 14%. The TP valuation is at a 25% discount to the property sector which is inline with our industry average of 27%. We like SUNWAY for: (i) its cheap landbanks, (ii) low sales base compared to other large cap developers, (iii) has the second largest exposure to Iskandar region where we have a bullish outlook, (iv) the third largest market capitalisation developer with strong branding and experience and a full value chain from construction, property development to investment properties, (v) one of the top contractors with an outstanding order book of RM3.9b, (vi) company’s plan to spin off more assets to SUNREIT, the third largest retail-based MREIT in town by market cap, in three-years time, and (vii) undemanding valuation of 10.7x-8.7x and 1.0x-0.9x for its FY13-15E PER and PBV vs. the industry average of 14.6x-12.4x and 1.4x, respectively.

百盛同店銷售連跌3季 去季業績惡化 純利急挫七成

百盛同店銷售連跌3季
去季業績惡化 純利急挫七成
2013年11月22日
【明報專訊】百盛商業(3368)面對經營環境困難,截至9月底止第三季同店銷售下跌4.2%,創連續3個季度下跌的紀錄,亦為3個季度以來,跌幅最大。剔除關店、新店和非可比項目的影響,其單季同店經營利潤較去年同期下跌15.3%,9個月合計亦跌11.3%。該集團受到新店虧損增加及有效稅率增加所拖累,第三季度股東應佔溢利較去年同期下跌77.5%至3350萬元(人民幣.下同),首9個月則賺3.58億元。

Golden Agri-Resources: Recent run-up likely overdone (OCBC)

Golden Agri-Resources:
Fair value S$0.50
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.010
versus: Current price S$0.595
Recent run-up likely overdone

Despite a disappointing set of 3Q13 results, Golden Agri-Resources’ (GAR) share price has continued to do well, likely buoyed by more signs that CPO (crude palm oil) prices are stabilizing around current levels (MYR2500/ton), aided by slightly better demand and supply factors. Note that our US$830/ton (MYR2650/ton) forecast has already taken these factors into consideration. But further CPO price upside may still be capped by the expected jump in global oilseed production. And as the market appears to be taking on a more “risk on” approach, we apply a higher 13.5x peg (versus 12.5x previously) to our FY14F EPS, thus raising our fair value from S$0.465 to S$0.50. But given the potential downside risk, we maintain our SELL rating.

CapitaLand : Restructuring back on? (CIMB)

CapitaLand
Current S$3.06
Target S$3.96
Restructuring back on?

▊ We think the partial sale of ALZ could mark the resumption, albeit a gradual one, of CapLand’s restructuring plans. ROE is unlikely to improve immediately but reallocating capital to its core markets is a good start, in our view. We lower our FY13-15 core EPS by 2-8% to account for lower ALZ earnings but our target price (still based on a 20% discount to RNAV) rises due to higher ALZ equity value. Maintain Outperform with catalysts to come from more capital recycling and operational improvements.

Q&M Dental - Next Move into China (VR)

Q&M Dental Group -
Increase Exposure
 Intrinsic Value  S$0.420
 Prev Closing Price  S$0.320
Next Move into China

Q&M Dental Group Limited (Q&M) recently announced that its wholly owned subsidiary has entered into a non-binding MOU to acquire a 51% stake in Qinhuangdao Aidite High Technical Ceramic Co., Ltd (Aidite), a specialized dental materials manufacturer, for RMB76.5m.

This acquisition is in-line with our previous thoughts about Q&M - speeding up their acquisition spree in China and resuming their ambition of creating a separate listed company which offers private dental-related services in China. In addition, the proposed acquisition has many terms that are favorable to Q&M.

Suntec REIT: First overseas acquisition (DBSV)

Suntec REIT:
Buy S$1.59,
Price Target : 12-Month S$ 1.80 (Prev S$ 1.82)
First overseas acquisition
•Buys landmark Australian office asset
•Positive carry impact on DPU during construction with upside from rental escalations
•Maintain BUY with S$1.80 TP

Buying landmark Australian office asset. Suntec REIT announced that it has entered into an agreement to acquire a 100% stake in a freehold land in North Sydney CBD, which will be developed into a 31-storey office building, to be completed in 2016, with NLA of 424k sqft. The acquisition, costing A$413m, will be fully funded by a 5-year unsecured loan. The REIT intends to hedge the purchase price upon completion of the transaction. The Leighton Group, a building, construction and property development group, has committed to occupying 76% of NLA for a period of 10 years after completion and has also provided a 4-year rental guarantee for any vacant space at the property.

曾淵滄專欄 22.11.13:如何評選最強企業

前幾天,出席騰訊(700)旗下騰訊網與財華社(8317)主辦的港股100強頒獎典禮與晚宴,去年是財華社第一次與騰訊網合辦這項活動,他們找城市大學協助,大學派了我與李炬威教授前往協助,主要工作就是設計一些計算的公式來衡量誰是100強。

美國《財富》月刊的財富500強是聞名全球的排名賽,一般排名總是以營業額或市值為排名的指標,港股100強因為考慮到「股」這個字,因此與財富500強那種以「企業」為評選的角度稍有不同,除了考慮營業額、市值外,也加入淨利潤、股本回報率、股息回報率。

CapitaMalls Asia - First Acquisition in Guangzhou (MKE)

CapitaMalls Asia -
Buy (unchanged)
Share price:SGD2.04
Target price:SGD2.56 (unchanged)
First Acquisition in Guangzhou

Acquisition in line with strategy. CMA is acquiring its first mall in Guangzhou. The partially-completed mall is valued at CNY2.2b, and CMA targets to open in phases beginning Dec 2014. The vendor is Greenland Real Estate. We see this as an attractive acquisition and in line with CMA’s strategy to build scale in regions it is already present in. Reiterate BUY. Our SGD2.56 TP is pegged to a 10% discount to RNAV.

Thursday, November 21, 2013

亞航逆風迎考驗

亞航逆風迎考驗
Created 11/21/2013 - 17:28
(吉隆坡21日訊)大馬航空業烽煙四起,亞洲航空(AIRASIA,5099,主板貿服組)第三季與首3季淨利各挫77.52%與59.15%,兩要員已班師回馬調控成本和力挽頹勢,管理層力拼增附屬服務營收;競爭劇烈生態中是否從容穿越橫阻逆風,仍有待考驗,分析員看法不一。

劇烈競爭阻轉嫁降陸費

聯昌研究說,劇烈競爭至少兩年搭客將享機票大減價,這或防止亞航明年起直接把9%降陸費轉嫁搭客。集團首席執行員丹斯里東尼從雅加達回來,把重心放在調控成本,基於回酬銳跌,這顯得刻不容緩。

AirAsia - Through the Turbulence (Kenanga)

AirAsia Berhad -
Price: RM2.51
Target Price: RM3.51
Through the Turbulence

Period  3Q13 / 9M13
Actual vs. Expectations AirAsia’s 9M13 core net profit of RM481.5m makes up 55% and 65% of our and streets’ full year estimates, respectively. As we are expecting a strong 4Q13 finish, the results are broadly within our but exceeded consensus expectations.

Dividends  No dividends declared as expected.

Suntec REIT: Foray into overseas market (OCBC)

Suntec REIT:
Fair value S$1.90
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.091
versus: Current price S$1.57
Foray into overseas market

Suntec REIT announced last Fri that it is seeking to acquire a 100% interest in 177-199 Pacific Highway for A$413.19m (~S$483.4m). While we are surprised by the timing of the acquisition and Suntec REIT’s move into the overseas market, we see several positives in the investment. First, as the transaction is expected to be earning accretive, this may reduce/eliminate the need to dip into CHIJMES sales proceeds to mitigate the temporary decline in DPU due to Suntec City asset enhancement. Second, the property is 100% pre-committed with the Leighton Group taking a head lease of 76% of the NLA for an average lease term of ~10 years. As such, the arrangement provides income certainty and stability to Suntec REIT. Lastly, the acquisition will be fully funded by a S$500m five-year unsecured loan facility. This dispels market fears of an equity fund raising. We raise our fair value to S$1.90 from S$1.85 after factoring the acquisition. Maintain BUY on Suntec REIT.

Golden Agri-Resilience of the growth outlook (JPM)

Golden Agri-Resources Ltd
Price: S$0.58
Price Target: S$0.70

Company overview
Golden Agri-Resources is the world's second largest oil palm plantation company with a total planted area of over 400,000 hectares located in Indonesia. It is involved in both upstream cultivation and downstream refining. GAR also operates in China through an integrated deep sea port, storage, oil-seed crushing facilities and refinery facilities in Ningbo and Zhuhai.

Singapore - Asian Year Ahead 2014- Stock Ideas for the Year of the Horse (JPM)

Singapore - Asian Year Ahead 2014 -
Stock Ideas for the Year of the Horse

Micro-level investment case
Singapore is in the midst of a structural transformation from an input-driven economy towards a productivity driven economy. This transformation is having a significant impact on economic growth rates, inflation, the currency, and the overall structure of the economy.

Based on our previous research on the impact on growth rates from immigration reform, productivity, as well as industry cost structures, we believe Singapore’s inability to continue to rely on immigration flows for growth will present a significant retraining/development challenge. This in turn could create an extended drag on the economy.

Midas - A Strong 3Q13 (DMG)

Midas - A Strong 3Q13

Midas' 3Q13 PATAMI was at CNY16.4m vs a CNY6.1m loss a year ago. This was boosted by its associate NPRT booking CNY10.9m in earnings (vs a CNY7.0m loss in 3Q12). Operating profit was lower y-o-y, dragged down by lower gross margins and higher operating costs. Nonetheless, the company remains in a good position to secure more orders over the next few quarters. Maintain BUY with a TP of SGD0.75.

Singapore Strategy - Looking up (DBSV)

Singapore Strategy -
Looking up
■ China turning positive, Europe bottoming
■ Accumulate for growth into 2014
■ Banks a proxy to GDP recovery – buy OCBC
■ Growth vs yield

Accumulate on base building
The combination of stabilizing economies for China, Europe bottoming with upside for recovery, attractive relative valuation and the possibility of a further delay to QE tapering beyond March 2014, form the ingredients for an uptick in interest for Asian equities going forward, Singapore included.

Croesus Retail Trust : Trading at attractive DPU yield(DBSV)

Croesus Retail Trust
BUY S$0.875
STI : 3,191.08
Price Target : 12-Month S$ 1.02
 Trading at attractive DPU yield

■ Good set of maiden results coupled with effective cost management

■ Dual growth drivers from positive rental reversion and potential acquisitions

■ Maintain Buy, TP S$1.02

Suntec REIT - Maiden voyage (CIMB)

Suntec REIT -
Current S$1.57
Target S$1.91
Maiden voyage

We see no reason to continue being negative on Parkson following the recovery in Malaysia's profitability, although it is still not fully back to normal. Management is positive on 2H and the trends this quarter suggest that the optimism is justified. 1QFY6/14 core net profit was in line at 24% of our and consensus FY14 estimates. We trim our estimates by 1% on housekeeping matters. We upgrade to an Outperform from an Underperform on the back of Malaysia's recovering profitability and depressed share price. Our target price is raised as we roll over to 20x CY15 P/E (prev. 22x CY14), in line with regional peers. Catalysts are improving sales figures.

曾淵滄專欄 21.11.13:基金搶三中受惠股

幾乎被股民遺忘的國壽(2628)及港交所(388),昨日竟然在成交榜排頭兩名,可見基金大戶掃貨行動仍未停止。現在已是11月下旬,不必多久,2013年就結束了,基金經理必須派成績表,若自己管理的基金少了這些三中受惠股,可能要面對上司及客戶的斥責。

前幾個月,華潤集團董事長遭到某位內地前記者公開在網上提出控訴,股價大跌,當時我建議大家買華潤創業(291);另外,中石油(857)高層被捕,股價也大跌,我也建議大家趁低吸納。事隔多月,華創、中石油這兩家企業仍是好好的運作,股價也回升了。

企業是企業,人事是人事,企業裏的人犯了事,若所犯的事只是個人的問題,對企業的影響不大;若所犯的事是造假賬,虛報企業利潤,那就是大問題。美國那些專業的狙擊手所狙擊的就是第二種犯事者所經營的企業,即企業的利潤是造假的。

最有趣的是國美(493),前董事長兼大股東今日仍在牢裏,但國美近來的表現還真不錯,業績還扭虧轉盈。

今年6月,中國出現錢荒時,傳出資金周轉不靈的熔盛(1101)股價跌至0.74元,只等於當年上市價8元的9.25%,在一沉百踩下,當時許多人都說熔盛快倒閉了。昨日,熔盛也不知道為甚麼突然以大成交急升20.8%,是不是三中之後,有地方銀行出手救援?

中電夥拍中資屬好事
中電(002)夥同中資南方電網收購青山電廠的美資持股,肯定是好事,因為投資越多,利潤也越多。而且將來南方電網與中電之間會有更多合作,一方面通過南方電網北上投資,另一方面引南方電網南下投資。

曾淵滄
大學教授



Source/Extract/Excerpts/来源/转贴/摘录: 蘋果日報
Publish date: 21/11/13

Thai Beverage - Changes afoot, but still on solid ground (SCB)

Thai Beverage -
PRICE as of 13 Nov 2013 SGD 0.54
PRICE TARGET SGD 0.75
Changes afoot, but still on solid ground

■ Fraser and Neave (F&N) shareholders approved the spin-off of its property business at their EGM on 13 November. Management is seeking a listing for Fraser Centrepoint, a separate entity that would hold the property business.

■ TCC Group controls around 90% of F&N: 62% directly and the remainder through its indirect ownership of Thai Beverage, which has a 29% stake. We expect another round of restructuring to unleash synergies worth THB 8bn.

CapitaMalls Asia - building up its core (Daiwa)

CapitaMalls Asia -
Target (SGD): 2.390
13 Nov price (SGD): 1.995
Building up its core

• A blue-chip pure play on necessity shopping and structural growth of Asia’s middle-income consumer group

• We expect CMA’s earnings quality and visibility to improve as it shifts its focus to nurturing its recurring income base

Wednesday, November 20, 2013

OUE seeks shareholders’ approval to sell OUE Bayfront into its REIT for at least $1 bil Print

OUE seeks shareholders’ approval to sell OUE Bayfront into its REIT for at least $1 bil Print

Written by The Edge  
Wednesday, 20 November 2013 13:06
OUE is seeking approval from its shareholders to sell OUE Bayfront into the commercial real-estate investment trust (OUE C-REIT) it is planning to list for a consideration least $1 billion.

An extraordinary general meeting (EGM) for shareholders to vote on the transaction will be held on December 4.

Matrix 9MFY13 net profit surpasses 2012

Matrix 9MFY13 net profit surpasses 2012
Wednesday, 20 November 2013
KUALA LUMPUR: With its technology park in Negeri Sembilan receiving an encouraging response from foreign investors, Matrix Concepts Holdings Bhd’s net profit for the nine months ended September of the 2013 financial year ending December (9MFY13) has surpassed the whole of FY12.

Revenue for the period stood at RM430.3 million, slightly lower than the RM456.1 million recorded for the whole of FY12.

The company is rewarding its shareholders by declaring a third interim single tier dividend of five sen and a special dividend of five sen.

大馬資金市場峰會‧馬股本益比料企15.5倍

大馬資金市場峰會‧馬股本益比料企15.5倍
Created 11/20/2013 - 10:50
(吉隆坡19日訊)隨著美國潛在從明年初開始退場,市場情緒將受到影響,分析員認為馬股估值將從16倍,逐步收窄至15.5倍,明年杪富時綜指最高料達1930點。

興業研究執行董事兼主席林志成在“第18屆大馬資金市場峰會”上表示,一旦美國減少購債規模,資金逆轉將影響股市估值,而馬股也不例外,屆時市場可接受的本益比水平料將從16倍減低至15.5倍。

“過去在未出現量化寬鬆前,馬股本益比只有14.8倍,但之後卻飆升至16倍,我們相信明年將稍微折價至15.5倍,相等於年杪富時綜指1910點。”

What is Rex International's recently announced Joint Venture of Rexonic all about?

Rex International Holdings -
Price: S$0.66
What is Rex International's recently announced Joint Venture of Rexonic all about? - Company Visit Note

Rex International hosted an analyst briefing yesterday with the management team of Ogsonic AG with whom Rex has recently formed a Joint Venture called Rexonic. We met with the founding members of Ogsonic AG, namely CEO Andreas Karl Kuhne and CTO, Peter Spenger and Rex Intl’s COO, Kristofer Skantze.

Midas Holdings: Recovery under way (OCBC)

Midas Holdings:
Fair value S$0.67
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.005
versus: Current price S$0.495
Recovery under way

Midas Holdings’ 3Q13 results exceeded our expectations, with revenue jumping 48.5% YoY to CNY301.0m, or 15.8% above our forecast. While gross margin of 20.8% (-10.7 ppt YoY) disappointed, bottomline reversed from a CNY6.1m net loss in 3Q12 to a PATMI of CNY16.4m and beat our projection of CNY13.3m. Looking ahead, we expect contribution from its recent CNY167.5m high-speed railway (HSR) contract to be recognised in 4Q13 and 1Q14. We also expect Midas to secure more HSR train car related contracts in late Dec or early Jan 2014 from the second round of tender exercise by the China Railway Corporation. Our fair value estimate is increased marginally from S$0.65 to S$0.67 as we roll forward our valuations to 1.3x FY14F P/B. Maintain BUY on Midas.

Parkson Retail Asia - Look for a stronger 2H (CIMB)

Parkson Retail Asia -
Current S$0.97
Target S$1.51
Look for a stronger 2H

We see no reason to continue being negative on Parkson following the recovery in Malaysia's profitability, although it is still not fully back to normal. Management is positive on 2H and the trends this quarter suggest that the optimism is justified. 1QFY6/14 core net profit was in line at 24% of our and consensus FY14 estimates. We trim our estimates by 1% on housekeeping matters. We upgrade to an Outperform from an Underperform on the back of Malaysia's recovering profitability and depressed share price. Our target price is raised as we roll over to 20x CY15 P/E (prev. 22x CY14), in line with regional peers. Catalysts are improving sales figures.

King Wan Corp: Shareholders Rewarded For Wait (DMG)

King Wan Corp: Shareholders Rewarded For Wait
(BUY, SGD0.29, TP: SGD0.43)

KWAN’s 2QFY14 PATMI jumped 97% y-o-y to SGD2m. The company announced a 0.5-cent dividend that comprises 33% of our core 1.5-cent estimate. Shareholders are being paid an attractive 5.2% yield to wait for KTIS’ listing, after which we expect an annual 1.5-cent special dividend. This will boost KWAN’s sustainable yield above 10%.

UMS: 3Q Stronger Than Expected

UMS: 3Q Stronger Than Expected
(BUY, SGD0.58, TP: SGD0.71)

UMS’ 3Q13 results were above expectations, with PATAMI soaring 126% y-o-y to SGD4.8m on SGD25.4m of revenue (+11% y-o-y). In view of the stronger-than-expected 3Q as well as UMS’ favourable outlook, we raise our FY13 and FY14 estimates by 24% and 17% respectively. Maintain BUY, with our DCF-based TP unchanged at SGD0.71 (WACC: 11.9%, terminal growth: 0%).

Sri Trang Agro-Industry : CY14 norm earnings seen better than CY13 (Phillip)

Sri Trang Agro-Industry
Target Price (Bt) 15.6
Closing Price (Bt) 13.00
CY14 norm earnings seen better than CY13

 Company Overview
STA is a Thailand’s biggest rubber producer and exporter. Its products include block rubber, ribbed smoked sheets (RSS), and concentrated latex. Its customers are automobile tire manufacturers and rubber glove producers.

• STA reported 3QCY13 net profit of Bt228mn, down y-y and q-q. The quarterly profit lagged our forecast on higher expenses and interest expenses and lower profits from affiliates.

Sin Heng Heavy Machinery : Slow & Steady, Towards New Frontiers (Phillip)

Sin Heng Heavy Machinery
Closing price: 0.265
Target price: 0.21
Slow & Steady, Towards New Frontiers

 SHHM are actively growing their synergistic rental (63% GP) and trading (37% GP) business model in SEA being one of the largest buyers of Kobelco cranes, and are authorized dealers of Kato and Mighty cranes.

• 1Q14 net profit of S$3.79M (+14.6% y-y) increases probability to close the year on the higher side of our estimate of single digit FY14 earnings growth.

Midas Holdings - 3Q13: Recovery afoot (MKE)

Midas Holdings -
Buy (unchanged)
Share price: SGD0.50
Target price: SGD0.75 (unchanged)
3Q13: Recovery afoot

Worst is over. Midas returned to the black in 3Q13, recording a net profit of CNY16.8m from a loss of CNY6.1m a year ago. 3Q13 revenue jumped 48.5% YoY. The key surprise: Stronger-than-expected turnaround of NPRT (the JV with CSR). Balance sheet also showed some improvement. We believe that the worst is behind us and the strong order win momentum, especially from high speed train sector, should support a sharp earnings rebound from FY14 onwards. Maintain BUY and TP SGD0.75, based on 1.5x P/B.

First Resources Ltd - Oct production grew 21% yoy

First Resources Ltd -
Current S$2.25
Target S$2.75
Oct production grew 21% yoy

First Resources posted a 21% yoy and 10% mom rise in FFB production in Oct 2013. FFB yields from its estates have continued to recover from the low production cycle. Excluding the newly-acquired estates, we estimate a flat yoy yield improvement for Oct 13. We think monthly production may have peaked in Oct and view the 10M production stats (+6%) as broadly in line with our expectation of +6% for the full-year, but slightly above the company's 0-5% growth guidance for 2013. Our EPS and target price of S$2.75 (based on CY15 P/E of 12.3x or 1 s.d. above mean) are unchanged. We maintain Outperform. Rerating catalysts include higher production and better downstream contribution.

曾淵滄專欄 20.11.13:基金睇通股民心態

上周三(11月13日),恒指收報22463點,四個交易日之後的昨日,恒指最高見23856點,升幅非常驚人。如此短時間內有如此升幅,遇上阻力十分正常。前晚,美股也創新高,道指上破16000點大關後遇上阻力。

昨日恒指雖然遇阻,但是細心看恒指成份股,可說是個別發展:石油股中石油(857)與中石化(386)依然上升,中國人壽(2628)亦造好,港交所(388)也如此。

上述股票的共通點,是過去一段時間表現一般,無人炒作。這些無人炒作的股,突然在三中全會後,因政策的大轉變而受惠,所以能一升再升,大家只要看看上述股票在過去兩天的成交,自然可以明白。

Suntec REIT : Acquires Upcoming Sydney Office Tower For A$413m (UOBKH)

Suntec REIT
Share Price S$1.57
Target Price S$2.12
Acquires Upcoming Sydney Office Tower For A$413m

Suntec REIT’s first overseas A$413m (S$482m) acquisition of an upcoming office tower in Sydney is surprising. However, with low Singapore acquisition yields and a high net completion yield of 6.9%, we are mildly positive on the acquisition, which will be 2-4% accretive to DPU. Australia will form less than 6% of its total assets, and it is not anticipated to grow to a significant size. Maintain BUY with a higher target of S$2.12 from higher income offset by a 50bp higher RRR with overseas risk.

Singapore- Is a Bottom in Earnings Revisions in Sight?

Singapore
Is a Bottom in Earnings Revisions in Sight?

 3Q13 Misses and Beats—While 3Q13 results presented investors more misses that beats, the rate of decline in the Earnings Revision Count indicator has slowed to -20% from -31% at the of 2Q13’s result season (Figure 1). Notable misses came from firms linked to resources (GGR, IFAR, Noble, SMM), Industrials (transport names such as NOL, SIA, SMRT) as well as some firms from the high-dividend yielding group (SATS, SPH, SingTel, M1, CDL Hosp Trust), real estate firm (CityDev). Upgrades were in Genting, Keppel, banks (UOB, OCBC) and real estate firms Keppel Land & MIT. Within our coverage universe, the aggregate FY13 EPS trend is now at -3% (-2% post 2Q13 results). This is expected to grow 10% in 2014E, with positive revisions expected from the Industrials (conglomerates, transport), Consumer Staples and Consumer Discretionary segments (Figure 3), reflating as Singapore's GDP growth normalizes to 3.5% in 2014E (3.7% in 2013E, 1.3% 2012).

Tuesday, November 19, 2013

Suntec REIT - Geographic Expansion Outside Singapore (MKE)

Suntec REIT -
Buy (unchanged)
Share price: SGD1.565
Target price: SGD1.83 (from SGD1.90)
Geographic Expansion Outside Singapore

Maiden Down Under acquisition. Suntec has entered into agreements to acquire 177-199 Pacific Highway, a freehold land and property to be developed for a consideration of AUD413.19 (~SGD490m). This is a 31-storey A grade state-of-the-art commercial tower which is targeted for completion in early 2016 with NLA of 423,915 sq ft. It is located in one of the most prominent sites in North Sydney Central Business District at the junction of Pacific Highway and Berry Street and enjoys direct access to a number of major surrounding roadways and is well served by public transport (5-minute walk from North Sydney station.)

First Resources 3Q13: Timely Switch To Biodiesel Production (UOBKH)

First Resources
Share Price S$2.06
Target Price S$2.40
3Q13: Timely Switch To Biodiesel Production

Results above expectation on lower-than-expected effective tax rate for 3Q13. Strong FFB production growth in 3Q13 helped to offset the decline in CPO ASP arising from fewer forward selling contracts delivered. However, CPO ASP was still better than its peers. FR’s downstream operation margin would continue to benefit from its timely switch to biodiesel production as refining margins become thinner. Maintain BUY. Target price: S$2.40.

Bumitama Agri: Growth on track (DBSV)

Bumitama Agri:
BUY S$0.99
STI : 3,166.74
Price Target: 12-month S$1.23 (Prev S$1.26)
Growth on track

•Ex. translational FX loss of Rp19.1bn, 3Q13 core earnings of Rp187bn (+10% y-o-y; +12% q-o-q) was in line with our and consensus expectations
•Sequential earnings growth was driven by lower financing cost and taxes
•FY13F-15F earnings tweaked by 0-1%, on account of adjusted FFB yield and capitalised FX losses. TP is likewise lowered by 2% to S$1.23

ASL Marine : Emphatic start (CIMB)

ASL Marine  
Current S$0.66
Target S$0.90
Emphatic start

▊ Even though the 1Q earnings outperformance represented an emphatic start, ASL is not resting on its laurels. It is shifting its business model to speculative building which offers convenience and flexibility to customers. This makes sense in an improving OSV market. At 29% of our FY14 forecast, 1QFY6/14 core earnings were 16% above our expectations and in line with consensus. We lift our FY14-16 core EPS by 6-14% on higher margins. We maintain our Outperform rating with a higher target price as we roll it forward to 0.9x CY14 P/BV, its 5-year mean. Catalysts could come from shipbuilding sales, faster turnaround of Vosta and big repair jobs.

Courts Asia : Downgrade on concerns over Malaysia (Phillip)

Courts Asia Limited
Target Price (SGD) 0.71
Closing Price (SGD) 0.695
Downgrade on concerns over Malaysia

 Company Overview
Courts Asia is a leading electrical, IT products, and furniture retailer in Singapore and Malaysia. Courts Asia also offers in-house credit facilities, generating additional revenue for the retailer. Courts Asia will be expanding to Indonesia, with the opening of a Megastore in Eastern Jakarta by FY2015.

• 2Q14 NPAT disappoint at S$7.2m, -55% lower y-y.
• We have concerns over its operations in Malaysia, including Megastore performance, Lower credit sales.

Pan United : Flattish 3Q Results, Stable Outlook (VR)

Pan – United Corporation Ltd
Faiirlly Vallued
Flattish 3Q Results, Stable Outlook
 Intrinsic Value S$1.000
 Prev Closing S$0.960

 Pan – United Corporation Ltd (Pan United) released its 3Q FY13 results with 3Q revenue remaining flat at S$184.1m as compared to 2Q revenue of S$184.9m. PAT rose 5% YoY from S$14.0m to S$14.6m mainly due to a decrease in material costs and staff costs.

Thai Beverage : More time needed (DBSV)

Thai Beverage Public Company
HOLD S$0.54
STI : 3191.08
(Downgrade from BUY)
Price Target : 12-Month S$ 0.57 (Prev S$ 0.80)
More time needed

• 3Q below our above-consensus expectations
• Beer/ non-alcoholic beverage facing challenges
• Revised our optimistic FY13-15F earnings down by 15-20%; notable growth expected only in FY15F
• Downgrade to HOLD, TP cut to S$0.57

Croesus Retail Trust : Trading at attractive DPU yield (DBSV)

Croesus Retail Trust
BUY S$0.875
STI : 3,191.08
Price Target : 12-Month S$ 1.02
Trading at attractive DPU yield.

• Good set of maiden results coupled with effective cost management
• Dual growth drivers from positive rental reversion and potential acquisitions
• Maintain Buy, TP S$1.02

Highlights
Decent set of maiden results. Croesus Retail Trust (CRT) reported maiden gross revenue of JPY1.998bn for the period from 10 May - 30 Sep 2013, which was 0.4% ahead of forecast. NPI was 3.1% higher than projected and came in at JPY1.269bn, translating to a higher NPI margin of 63.5%. Distributable income of JPY1.139bn was 8.3% higher than projections and translates to a DPU of 3.26Scts. This was ahead of prospectus forecast of 3.11Scts.

Rotary Engineering : Key takeaways from results briefing (UOBKH)

Rotary Engineering
Share Price S$0.660
Target Price S$0.880
Key takeaways from results briefing

Financial Highlights
• Rotary reported a stronger set of results for 9M13. Net profit rebounded to S$16m from a loss in 9M12, mainly due to higher revenue and lower profit recognition from the negative-margin SATORP project.

• Total revenue rose 15% yoy to S$413.5m (9M12: S$360.1m) and gross profit improved to S$50.1m (9M12: S$87.6m gross loss).

Rex International : Encouraging progress from Rexonic well stimulation (UOBKH)

Rex International
Share Price S$0.66
Target Price S$1.27
Encouraging progress from Rexonic well stimulation

Results
• No revenue recognised for 3Q13, as Rex had been involved only in exploration and drilling activities with no production activities.

Takeaways from results briefing
• Rexonic signed three new contracts. In the results briefing, we were encouraged by news that Rexonic has signed contracts to provide the eco-friendly Rexonic solution to three MNCs till 2016. The contracts will be fee-based and charged on a daily rate. According to management, they believe Rexonic (the JV) will be profitable in the next FY.

Fortune REIT - Strong rental growth in 3Q13 (SCB)

Fortune REIT -
PRICE as of 11 Nov 2013 HKD 6.32
PRICE TARGET HKD 8.08
Strong rental growth in 3Q13

■ Fortune REIT’s (FRT) 3Q13 distributable income rose 10.6% YoY to HKD 153.3mn, but DPU rose just 1.5% on dilution.

■ Reversion was strong at over 20%, contributing to a 9M13 reversion of 20%, which is above management’s target of mid teens for the full year.

曾淵滄專欄 19.11.13:股市往往跌急升慢

今年5月,當聯儲局主席伯南克宣佈美國可能退市之後,港股就一路下跌至6月。同時,內地也出現錢荒現象,人民銀行收緊銀根,上證綜合指數一度跌破2000點,恒生指數也跌破20000點,一時人心惶惶。當時我寫過好幾篇文章,表達我對股市樂觀,而樂觀的理由是港股與內地A股的估值都已經很便宜,PE值和PB值都很低,下跌空間有限。當時我自己也買入A股ETF。同時,我也開始籌備出版新書,論述我比較熟悉的股票。本月,兩家出版社同一時間推出兩本我的新書,書名分別是《股市淘寶》及《時機為王》,兩本書都在敘述同一個道理:目前的股價估值很低,應該入市尋寶。

Bumitama Agri - Hurt by Low 3Q13 FFB Production (MKE)

Bumitama Agri -
Buy (unchanged)
Share price: SGD0.990
Target price: SGD1.14 (from SGD1.24)
Hurt by Low 3Q13 FFB Production

Below expectations. 3Q13 PATMI of IDR168.8b (+9% QoQ, -5% YoY) brought 9M13 to IDR475b (-15% YoY); 56% and 60% of our and street estimates respectively. We cut our 2013 PATMI forecast by 22% largely on lower FFB output growth and weaker CPO ASP. Conversely, we raise our 2014-15 PATMI by 5% largely on higher translated CPO ASP of MYR2,600/t in IDR terms, factoring in weaker IDR against MYR exchange rate of 3,300 (previously 3,154; +5%).

Pan United : 3Q13 results (Phillip)

Pan United Corp.
Target Price (SGD) 1.26
Closing Price (SGD) 0.970

•BBM results were a little muted as the Construction Industry faced greater enforcement of regulations including shorter work hours, tighter labour supply and prolonged dengue checks. Demand however, has not changed and we expect activity to normalize going forward. Major infrastructure projects going forward are: Thomson MRT, Changi T4, New LNG Terminal, Sengkang General & Community Hospital, Pasir Panjang Terminal Phase 3, Marina One, TP180. So while the muted 3q13 contribution shaves our overall group estimates this year from 8.8c to 8.2c, we raise them next year from 9.2c to 9.8c as job delays now simply means they get done later.

Monday, November 18, 2013

I-Berhad 9-month PBT doubles to RM16.8m

I-Berhad 9-month PBT doubles to RM16.8m

2013/11/18

I-Berhad, the master developer of the 29.14-hectare i-City ultrapolis, saw its pre-tax profit double to RM16.8 million in first nine months ended Sept 30, 2013 from RM8.12 million in the same period last year.

Revenue in the period under review jumped 168.8 per cent to RM96.5 million from RM35.9 million previously.

股海宝藏:鹏达受惠油气业蓬勃发展

股海宝藏:鹏达受惠油气业蓬勃发展
Created 11/18/2013 - 13:30
鹏达集团(PANTECH,5125,主板贸服股)于2007年2月上市,核心业务:1)钢管、装置和流量控制产品贸易;2)生产碳钢、铜镍和镍合金配件和装置。

2012年5月,鹏达集团以4500万令吉收购英国的Nautic Steel。在过去30年,Nautic集团是声誉卓越的钢铁产品生产商,产品包括双工和超级双工不钢铁、铜镍和镍合金。

该集团也获得不同国际机构的产品认证,以及与油气大公司例如卡塔尔石油、科威特公司、国油、英国石油、埃索、蚬标和巴西海军等,有非常良好的关系。因此,鹏达集团将可以利用Nautic集团的网络,直接分销产品给这些大公司。

Genting HK faces headwind in Australia

Genting HK faces headwind in Australia
Business & Markets 2013
Written by Charlotte Chong of theedgemalaysia.com    
Monday, 18 November 2013 09:59

KUALA LUMPUR: The Australian authorities may have dealt Genting Hong Kong Ltd, in which Genting group’s Lim family controls a direct stake of 56.35%, a bad hand when the New South Wales (NSW) state government announced last week an agreement with Jame Packer’s Crown Resorts Ltd to build a A$1.3 billion (RM3 billion) complex that will include both a VIP casino and a state-of-the-art hotel complex at Barangaroo.

UMS : Pop the champagne (CIMB)

UMS Holdings Ltd -
Current S$0.55
Target S$0.65
Pop the champagne

9MFY13 core earnings were 93% of consensus and 90% of CIMB forecasts as the 3QFY13 slowdown was not as bad as expected. The fourth quarter looks bright and our 2 Scts DPS assumption will likely materialise. Visibility now extends into 1QFY14.

9MFY13 earnings exceeded consensus estimates as the 3QFY13 slowdown was milder than expected. We raise earnings by 7-20% as strong demand returns. Rolling over to CY14, our target price rises to S$0.65 (1.12x P/BV, the high end of its last earnings upturn cycle). We expect 2 Scts DPS for 4QFY13 - the full-year dividend yield is 9.1%. Maintain Outperform.

Courts Asia : Credit tightens (DBSV)

Courts Asia
HOLD S$0.695
STI : 3,166.74
(Downgrade to from BUY)
Price Target : 12-Month S$ 0.77 (Prev S$ 1.00)
Credit tightens

• 2Q14 below expectations as margins disappoint on lower earned interest charges
• Slashed FY14F/FY15F earnings by 32%/33%
• Downgrade to HOLD with TP cut to S$0.77

2Q14 results below expectations as growth, margins disappoint. 2Q14 results were below expectations due to slower than expected revenue growth and lower margins. Revenue grew 3.3% y-o-y to S$223m but earnings plunged 55% to S$7.2m. Revenue growth was driven by Singapore sales (+11% y-o-y) and 16% higher SSSG on higher bulk/export sales. However, gross profit margins declined 5.5ppts to 28.5%, leading to net earnings declining by 55%. Interim DPS of 0.76 Scents was declared.

First Resources : Normalising outlook (DBSV)

First Resources
HOLD S$2.14
STI : 3,180.25
(Downgraded from BUY)
Price Target : 12-month S$ 2.19
Normalising outlook

• 3Q13 earnings of US$51.4m exceeded expectations
• FFB output peaked during the quarter, jumping 38% q-o-q
• Expect sequentially lower 4Q13 earnings on lower volumes
• Rating cut to HOLD; recent outperformance has priced in the strong earnings recovery, TP unchanged at S$2.19

Tat Hong : Recovery to take time (DBSV)

Tat Hong
HOLD S$0.915
STI : 3,166.74
Price Target : 12-month S$ 1.01 (Prev S$1.00)

• 2Q14 results were in line; Australian operations, crane utilisation and margins remained weak
• Australia operations may take time to recover
• Interim DPS of 1 Sct declared
• Maintain HOLD with TP of S$1.01

Highlights
2Q14 results in line. 2Q14 earnings were in line with our estimates. Revenue declined 14% to S$185m while earnings dropped 53% to S$8.2m, largely due to weak Australian operations (-27% y-o-y), fleet utilisation (68%), and margins. Crane rental revenue decreased 14% and contributing to the decrease were continued weakness in Australia’s mining and infrastructure activities and the completion of one key rental contract in Malaysia.

Religare Health Trust : Weak INR to dampen FY15F DPU (DBSV)

Religare Health Trust
HOLD S$0.80
STI: 3,180.25
(Downgrade from BUY)
Price Target: 12-Month S$0.81 (Prev S$0.94)
Weak INR to dampen FY15F DPU

• 2Q14 DPU of 2.06 Scts within expectations; 1H14 DPU of 4.05 Scts forms c.51% of forecasts
• Operations trending well with overall occupancy up
• Weak INR a key dampener to FY15F DPU; assuming INR55/SGD, c.11% lower from our previous assumption

Golden Agri-Resources : Poor 3Q due to lower output (CIMB)

Golden Agri-Resources
Current S$0.57
 Target S$0.60
Poor 3Q due to lower output

▊ Golden Agri’s 3Q13 core net profit (down 60% yoy) came in below our and market expectations due mainly to weaker FFB production from its estates (down 14% yoy) and higher inventory (+100k tonnes qoq) as at end-Sep 13. 9M13 core net profit accounted for only 58% of our full-year forecast and 52% of consensus. We cut our FY13-15 net profit forecasts by 4-22% to reflect lower FFB production estimates. However, our target price is higher at S$0.60 (14x CY15 P/E, the historical average) as we roll forward our valuations to end-14. We maintain our Neutral rating.

Silverlake Axis 1QFY14: Key Takeaways From Results Briefing (UOBKH)

Silverlake Axis
Share Price S$0.84
Target Price S$0.91
1QFY14: Key Takeaways From Results Briefing

Key Takeaways
• FY14: A year for new contract wins. Silverlake Axis (SAL) reported higher software project services revenue of RM22m (+233% yoy) in 1QFY14. The substantial increase is mainly due to progressive recognition of software implementation contracts secured in FY13. With several major projects completed or nearing completion, we think SAL currently has the capacity to bid for and take on new contracts.

Yangzijiang Shipbuilding - Earnings-decline overhang (CIMB)

Yangzijiang Shipbuilding -
Current S$1.20
Target S$1.30
Earnings-decline overhang

YZJ's stock could be range-bound after its 21% appreciation since our upgrade in Aug on the back of stronger orders. Although we believe its order momentum can be sustained in the next six months, lower earnings and margins in FY14 could limit further near-term upside.

We downgrade the stock to Neutral from Outperform. 9M13 net profit was in line at 70% of our FY13 forecast though above consensus at 85%. 9M13 order book was US$3.87bn (wins of US$2.1bn by 1 Oct). We raise our EPS for FY15 on higher revenue recognition and roll over our target price to end-FY14, still based on 1.4x P/BV (-1 s.d. of its 5-year mean).

First Resources Ltd : Buffer from forward sales (CIMB)

First Resources Ltd
Current S$2.14
Target S$2.75
Buffer from forward sales

▊ 3Q core net profit fell only 4% yoy as higher production and a lower tax rate mitigated weaker selling prices and rising costs. This was a good achievement vis-à-vis the other upstream players, thanks to the realisation of forward sales. 9M13 core EPS was broadly in line at 81% of consensus and our FY13 forecasts, as we are expecting weaker earnings in 4Q due to lower production. Our Outperform rating is intact, though we raise our target price, still based on 12.3x P/E or 1 s.d. above its 4-year mean, after rolling over to end-2014. Re-rating catalysts are expected from higher production and downstream earnings.

曾淵滄專欄18.11.13:美股牛三 牽動港股

中共十八大三中全會在上周二閉幕,當晚發表公報,第二天港股就狂跌,顯然市場對只談原則的公報失望。幸好再過兩天,港股總算收復失地。不過,收復失地的主要力量並不是投資者開始看得懂公報,而是美國下一任聯儲局主席的耶倫在參議院的言論,推動美股再創歷史新高。現在,美國道指很接近16000點,已經大幅拋離了2007年的歷史高位14198點,很明顯美國已經進入大牛三的階段,肯定對港股有非常強勁的推動作用。大家千萬不要隨意止賺,只賺粒糖的買賣,隨時令人後悔。

Fortune REIT : Enhancement works bear fruit (DBSV)

Fortune REIT
BUY HK$6.37
HSI : 23,070
Price Target : 12-Month HK$8.02
Enhancement works bear fruit

􀂃In line results; solid rental reversions propelled growth
􀂃Asset enhancement initiatives bear fruit
􀂃BUY with HK$8.02 TP

Solid rental reversions propelled growth. Fortune REIT’s 3Q13 distribution income grew 11% to HK$153m, primarily driven by higher rental revenue.

Biosensors : Soft outlook (DBSV)

Biosensors International Group
HOLD S$0.925
STI : 3,180.25
Price Target : 12-Month S$ 0.94 (Prev S$ 1.09)
Soft outlook

• 2Q14 results below; stent sales and licensing revenue disappoint and margins weaken
• Soft outlook on weak revenue growth and lower margins
• Cut FY14F/FY15F earnings by 30%/38%
• Maintain HOLD, TP reduced to S$0.94

Sunday, November 17, 2013

Pan United : Flat quarter but exciting plans ahead (UOBKH)

Pan United
Share Price S$0.97
Target Price S$1.25
Flat quarter but exciting plans ahead

• Pan United (PUC) is our top pick for investors looking to cash in on the local construction boom. It is Singapore’s largest supplier of cement and ready mixed concrete (RMC), with a market share of about 30%.

Financial results
• In line with estimates. PUC’s 9MFY13’s net profit of S$32.6m formed 78% of our full-year forecast.

Bumitama Agri 3Q13: Weaker-than-expected FFB Production

Bumitama Agri
Share Price S$0.99
Target Price S$1.23

Results were below expectation on weaker-than-expected FFB production. FFB production growth was below our expectation despite entering into high production season mainly due to dry weather impact back in 2011. Its FFB production is likely to miss our expectation. However, we are maintaining our earnings forecast pending an analyst briefing on 14 Nov 13. Maintain BUY. Target price: S$1.23.

RH Petrogas 9M13: Top-line Weighed Down By Lower Average Oil Price And Oil Production (UOBKH)

RH Petrogas
Share Price S$0.65
Target Price S$1.60
9M13: Top-line Weighed Down By Lower Average Oil Price And Oil Production

RHP recorded a 9M13 net loss of US$15.2m. Revenue dropped by 4.3% yoy due to the decrease in average oil price for the period and decline in production. Nonetheless, we remain encouraged by near-term events, which will boost shareholders value, ie a) receiving final approval for its oilfield in China and b) successful oil discovery at Klagalo-1 in Indonesia. Maintain BUY. Target price: S$1.60.

Overseas Education : Slightly thwarted by personnel costs (CIMB)

Overseas Education Ltd
Current S$0.85
Target S$1.08
Slightly thwarted by personnel costs

▊ OEL’s 9MFY13 core net profit was slightly below our expectation at 71% of our FY13 forecast but above consensus at 78%. However, 9MFY13 sales were in line, at 76% of our FY13 forecast and 73% of consensus. OEL has commenced construction of its new campus. OEL’s 9MFY13 core net profit was slightly below our expectation, at 71% of our full-year forecast. Personnel costs were again to blame for the variance. We cut FY13-15 core EPS by an average of 4.4% to reflect the higher personnel expense trend. We roll over to CY15 and raise our DCF-derived target price to S$1.08 (WACC 8.1%). Maintain Outperform, with the completion of the new campus as a catalyst.

Unisem : Losses to widen in 4Q13 (MIDF)

Unisem (M) Bhd
Price (7 November 2013) RM0.875
Target Price RM0.62
Losses to widen in 4Q13

INVESTMENT HIGHLIGHTS
Poor 9MFY13 earnings due to decline in performance from the Asian region
Slowdown in capex spending in view of poor order visibility
Focus on conserving cash, of which part will be utilize to pare down debt
4Q13 to be worst off as the company implement some changes in its strategy
Maintain SELL due to bleak earnings outlook for the next 2 quarters

Yangzijiang Shipbuilding - Keeping our Cautious Stance (MKE)

Yangzijiang Shipbuilding -
Sell (unchanged)
Share price: SGD1.16
Target price: SGD1.05 (from SGD0.98)
Keeping our Cautious Stance

3Q13 above expectations, but maintain Sell. 3Q13 PATMI beat our expectation at CNY826.4m (-4% YoY, +2% QoQ) on revenue of CNY3,668m (+2% YoY, -17% QoQ), attributed to deliveries of more large vessels (five out of eight delivered). 9M13 net profit made up 85% of our initial FY13 forecast. 3Q13 shipbuilding gross margins held up at 22.3% (2Q13:20.6%, 3Q12:22.9%), but we expect margins to decline over FY14-15 as high-value contracts deplete.

First Resources - 3Q13 Within Expectations (MKE)

First Resources -
Buy (unchanged)
Share price:SGD2.06
Target price:SGD2.39 (from SGD2.06)
3Q13 Within Expectations

Key bright spot: Strong FFB production. 3Q13 PATMI of USD51m (+36% QoQ, -20% YoY) took 9M13 to USD153m (-7% YoY); 76% of our and consensus full-year forecasts. While industry peers continued to see lower FFB production (due to biological tree stress), FR’s nucleus estates posted an 8.2% YoY rise in FFB output, aided by 10,000 ha of new mature area (Fig 2 & 3). FY13’s FFB output growth is set to be at the top end of management’s guidance of up to 5%, before accelerating to 15% in FY14. We maintain our forecasts but raise our TP to SGD2.39, based on 15x FY14 PER (previously SGD2.06 on 13x FY14 PER). The higher PER is justified on improving CPO price, its impressive track record and production recovery. Reiterate BUY.

Silverlake : Higher dividends & healthy pipeline (DBSV)

Silverlake Axis
BUY S$0.84
STI: 3,186.12
Price Target: 12-month S$0.90 (Prev S$0.82)
Higher dividends & healthy pipeline

• 1Q14F profit of RM51.2m (+29% y-o-y,-14% q-oq) was 8% above our estimate due to forex gains. Interim DPS of 0.8 Scts (+60% y-o-y) was another positive surprise
• FY14F/15F EPS raised 5%/8% on the back of forex gains in FY14F, followed by higher licensing revenue in FY15F.
Warren E. Buffett(沃伦•巴菲特)
Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful
别人贪婪时我恐惧, 别人恐惧时我贪婪
投资只需学好两门课: 一,是如何给企业估值,二,是如何看待股市波动
吉姆·罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)
“错过时机”胜于“搞错对象”:不会全军覆没!”
做自己熟悉的事,等到发现大好机会才投钱下去

乔治·索罗斯(George Soros)

“犯错误并没有什么好羞耻的,只有知错不改才是耻辱。”

如果操作过量,即使对市场判断正确,仍会一败涂地。

李驰(中国巴菲特)
高估期间, 卖对, 不卖也对, 买是错的。
低估期间, 买对, 不买也是对, 卖是错的。

Tan Teng Boo


There’s no such thing as defensive stocks.Every stock can be defensive depending on what price you pay for it and what value you get,
冷眼(冯时能)投资概念
“买股票就是买公司的股份,买股份就是与陌生人合股做生意”。
合股做生意,则公司股份的业绩高于一切,而股票的价值决定于盈利。
价值是本,价格是末,故公司比股市重要百倍。
曹仁超-香港股神/港股明灯
1.有智慧,不如趁势
2.止损不止盈
成功者所以成功,是因为不怕失败!失败者所以失败,是失败后不再尝试!
曾淵滄-散户明灯
每逢灾难就是机会,而是在灾难发生时贱价买股票,然后放在一边,耐性地等灾难结束
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