Saturday, November 2, 2013

Neptune Orient Lines : No respite from freight rate woes (DBSV)

Neptune Orient Lines
HOLD S$1.06 STI : 3,230.44
Price Target : 12-month S$ 1.10 (Prev S$ 1.13)
No respite from freight rate woes

• Rate restorations on Asia-Europe in June-July helped container liner division to break even in 3Q13
• But results still slightly below as Intra-Asia rates plunged owing to capacity cascading from mainlanes
• Current spot rates on Asia-Europe are back at panic levels again , but no major capacity reduction measures seen
• Maintain HOLD with TP adjusted to S$1.10

Sheng Siong Group: Higher staff and rental costs limit growth potential of supermarket operator

Sheng Siong Group: Higher staff and rental costs limit growth potential of supermarket operator
Written by Jo-Ann Huang  
Monday, 21 October 2013 15:54
Local supermarket operator Sheng Siong Group has not opened any new stores this year and is unlikely to do so. This means it will fall short of its target to boost its retail gross floor area (GFA) by 10% annually, says James Koh, an analyst with Maybank Kim Eng, in an Oct 10 report.

Redtone - Earnings Stabilising, Awaits Catalyst (Kenanga)

Redtone -
Price: RM0.74
Target Price: RM0.81
Earnings Stabilising, Awaits Catalyst

Period  1Q14
Actual vs. Expectations REDTONE’s 1Q14 NP of RM3.65m (+82% YoY) came in within our expectation and accounted for 13.6% of our full-year estimate. We understand that the group will recognize more earnings from its RM82.5m government project in the remaining quarters. Coupled with better economies of scale which should benefit margin, this should bring its full-year NP close to our estimate of RM26.8m.

Rex International Holdings: Banking on exclusive exploration technology to help detect oil wells

Rex International Holdings: Banking on exclusive exploration technology to help detect oil wells

Written by Adele Teo  
Monday, 21 October 2013 15:50
Rex International Holdings has been one of the more successful IPOs in the past year and the stock looks like it could still go higher. The company started trading on Catalist on July 31, opening at 50.5 cents — just slightly above its IPO price of 50 cents — and closing at 56.5 cents the same day. More than 165 million shares changed hands. The Swedish oil and gas group had successfully placed out 168 million shares at its IPO to institutional investors, including an over-allotment of 28 million shares. Its public offer of 2.5 million shares was 153 times subscribed.

曾淵滄:樓價有排未見底

【學者分析】


近日分析認為,本港樓市會下跌,甚至有指樓價會大跌五成,大學教授曾淵滄就認為有排未見底。他表示,樓市會一直膠着到有明確訊號為止,例如政府撤銷辣招,樓價就會狂升;或者美國加息,樓價就會下跌,但短期而言,美國不會加息,故相信本港樓市將維持一段長時間的膠着狀態。

料長時間呈膠着狀態
曾淵滄指出,中原城市領先指數CCL由年初至今,一直徘徊於120點,樓價只在幾個巴仙之間起落,根本無跌,「間中有人急住買樓,咪畀高啲價追貨。有人等錢使嘅,就低價放貨。大劈價全部都係假!」他指出:「地產代理希望製造一個勢,令到業主驚,驚就會放盤。𠵱家代理面對無人放盤,根本無盤賣……所以想嚇業主,快啲嗱嗱聲放盤。」

Sunway REIT - Earnings On Track (MKE)

Sunway REIT -
Hold (unchanged)
Share price: MYR1.37
Target price: MYR1.26 (from MYR1.42)
Earnings On Track

Maintain HOLD with a lower TP. SunREIT’s 1QFY6/14 core net profit of MYR55.4m (+6.5% YoY) was in line. The proposed 1Q DPU of 2sen (-1.5% YoY, -1.0% QoQ) was also within expectations. We maintain our FY6/14-16 earnings forecasts but lower our DCF-based TP by 11% to MYR1.26 after factoring in a higher beta assumption of 0.8 (from 0.6). Near-term earnings prospects are largely dependent on its crown jewel, the Sunway Pyramid shopping mall (SPSM).

Bank of China : Earnings quality miss (DBSV)

Bank of China
HK$3.62
HSI : 23,304
Price Target : 12-Month HK$ 4.39
Earnings quality miss

3Q net profit was slightly above
However, earnings quality was disappointing due to poor income and PPOP momentum
Slight downside to our earnings forecasts
Maintain BUY, but near term share price performance will likely lag

Benalec Holdings - Sells More Land in Melaka

Benalec Holdings -
Price: RM1.18
Target Price: RM1.94
Sells More Land in Melaka

News  Yesterday, Benalec announced that its wholly-owned subsidiary Heritage Land Realty Sdn. Bhd. has entered into a Sale and Purchase Agreement with Faithview Supreme Development Sdn. Bhd. to dispose eight (8) pieces of leasehold vacant land held under Plot A - H located Kawasan Bandar VI, Daerah Melaka Tengah, Melaka measuring approximately 29.54 acres for a total sale consideration of RM51.5m cash.

Hua Yang Berhad - Affordable Housing Advantage (Kenanga)

Hua Yang Berhad -
Price: RM2.11
Target Price: RM2.91
Affordable Housing Advantage

HUAYANG held a briefing yesterday which reaffirmed our positive view based on these factors: (i) stronger billings in 2H14, which will be driven mainly by projects that are near to completion such as Parc@OneSouth, and (ii) immediate billings upon SPA for some of its upcoming projects as the substructure works are already underway. We believe our RM620.0m sales target for FY14E is achievable, buoyed by more than RM1.0b launches in the pipeline for the year and current unbilled sales of RM559m. Maintained TP of RM2.91, while maintaining our stance that it should be on parity with our DCF-driven RNAV.

Friday, November 1, 2013

预算案打房 毒药? 良药?

预算案打房 毒药? 良药?
Created 11/01/2013 - 14:28
为了防止国内产业市场过热,政府在2014年预算案祭出了多项被认为打房的措施,包括上调产业盈利税(RPGT)、禁止发展商承担利息计划(DIBS)及即将推行的消费税(GST)等措施。

只是,作为投资者,应该要了解一体两面的道理,业者认为“严刑”或可抑制房市投机活动,却也带来一些挑战。

更重要的是,大家必须掌握这些措施的真正用意及操作,才能避开投资误区。

股神點出散戶投資三盲點

股神點出散戶投資三盲點
Created 10/29/2013 - 17:35
(美國‧紐約29日訊)“股神”巴菲特建議廣大散戶“別自己打垮自己”,並提醒散戶最容易犯的3大錯誤。

巴菲特在《今日美國報》(USA Today)的專訪中說:“投資股市的好處是,長期而言股票總會有好表現。美國企業和總體經濟未來將有好表現,因此局勢對你有利。”

巴菲特提出散戶最可能犯的3大錯誤:

CapitaLand: More residential sales activity (DBSV)

CapitaLand:
BUY S$3.16
STI : 3,230.44
Price Target : 12-month S$ 3.93 (Prev S$ 4.07)
More residential sales activity

•Results in line with estimates, makes up 73% of our full year forecast
•China and Singapore to be the major drivers to profit growth in FY14
•Maintain Buy, revised TP to S$3.93

Highlights
Results within expectations. Capitaland reported 3Q PATMI of S$135.5m, bringing 9M13 earnings to S$706.8m or 73% of our full year forecast. Reported 3Q results were down 9% y-o-y on smaller divestment gains.

Soilbuild Business Space REIT: Poised to deliver (AM)

Soilbuild Business Space REIT:
LAST CLOSE: S$0.755
FAIR VALUE: S$0.84
Poised to deliver

Soilbuild REIT’s performance exceeding prospectus guidance. Soilbuild REIT recorded a DPU of 0.76c for the period from Listing Date (16 Aug 2013) to 30 Sep 2013. This represents an increase of 3% over the forecast DPU of 0.738c, and forms 36.2% of our DPU forecast of 2.1c for the period from listing to end-Dec 2013. The DPU of 0.76c is payable on 4 Dec 2013.

ValueMax : IPO Heavily Oversubscribed (VR)

ValueMax Group Limited
Increase Exposure
 Intrinsic Value S$0.820
 IPO Price S$0.510
IPO Heavily Oversubscribed

 We initiate coverage on ValueMax Group Limited (ValueMax) with an Increase Exposure rating, following the commencement of trading of its shares on 30 Oct 2013. We had on 24 Oct 2013 issued an unrated IPO Highlight report (“Moving Up to the Next Stage”) that valued the company at S$0.820 per share versus an IPO price of S$0.510. This report assigns a rating to the counter, comments on the IPO results and recaps on some of the investment merits of the company.

Great Eastern : Continued improved new business momentum (CS)

Great Eastern Holdings
Maintain OUTPERFORM
Price (29 Oct 13 , S$) 17.70
TP (prev. TP S$) 25.00 (25.00
3Q13 result: Continued improved new business momentum


● Strong 3Q13 - Great Eastern reported a strong headline 3Q13 result, with S$283 mn NPAT, up 43% YoY (excluding one-off gains in 3Q12). Operating profit was S$139 mn, up 26% YoY.

Neptune Orient Lines - Two steps forward, one step back (CIMB)

Neptune Orient Lines -
Current S$1.06
Target S$1.16
Two steps forward, one step back

NOL's 9M13 core net loss of US$168m accounted for 51% of our FY13 loss forecast, but we consider this to be in line as the 4Q13 loss should widen sequentially on a dramatic fall in spot rates.

We tweak FY13 core EPS forecasts up slightly on housekeeping matters, but reduce FY14-15 on lower volume assumptions. We upgrade to Neutral from an Underperform as the share price has taken a lot of the risks into account. Our target price is raised as we roll over to end-2014, still based on 1.1x P/BV, the mid-point of its trading range since 2012.

CDL Hospitality Trust - The waiting continues (CIMB)

CDL Hospitality Trust -
Current S$1.68
Target S$1.76
The waiting continues

While the hospitality sector remains weak, we believe the negativity has largely been factored in given CDL-HT’s current valuation of 1x P/BV. We continue to wait for re-rating catalysts such as turnaround signs in the hospitality sector and accretive acquisitions.

3Q13 results were slightly weaker than our estimate with DPU for the quarter accounting for 23% of our FY13 forecast and 9M13 DPU at 71%. We lower our estimates to account for the slightly weaker-than-expected results and roll over our valuations to FY15. This nudges up our DDM-based target price (discount rate: 8.5%) to S$1.76. Maintain Neutral.

Hi-P International - Weak results, worsening financials

Hi-P International -
FULLY VALUED S$0.605
STI : 3,210.67
Price Target : 12-month S$ 0.47
Weak results, worsening financials

• Net profit of S$3.1m met lowered expectations, margins collapsed on higher proportion of assembly work
• Working capital cycle has weakened, first ever net debt position of S$42m
• Guidance points to weaker 2H13, no recovery in sight

Forterra Trust : Moving Forward with its Plans (VR)

Forterra Trust
Moving Forward with its Plans
Invest
 Intrinsic Value S$2.39
 Prev Closing S$2.09

 Following Nan Fung Group’s acquisition of 100% equity in Forterra Real Estate Pte. Ltd and Treasury Holdings Property Management Co., Ltd and 29.98% in Forterra Trust (Forterra) on 29 August 2013, the company announced several positive developments.

Bumitama Agri - Field Trip To Central Kalimantan (MKE)

Bumitama Agri -
Buy (unchanged)
Share price: SGD0.995
Target price: SGD1.24 (unchanged)
Field Trip To Central Kalimantan

A pleasant visit. We visited Bumitama Agri’s (BAL) PT Windu Nabatindo Lestari oil palm estate in Central Kalimantan recently. The 29,472ha estate has its own mill, a R&D centre, a learning centre, a weather station, a school and accommodation for workers.

The journey was surprisingly pleasant and we came away with two key facts:

曾淵滄專欄 01.11.13:新股密集來怎挑選

美國聯儲局最新公佈議息結果,一切維持不變,利率保持在超低水平,政府繼續買債。

不過,美股在創新高後出現調整,這是趁好消息出貨的正常反應,消息公佈前,股市早已上升,說明這次議息結果是市場預期之內。

自從今年5月聯儲局發出退市預告後,美股就一波三折,出現三次較顯著的下跌,第一次見底是6月中,第二次見底是8月底,第三次見底是10月初。這一次不退市,遲早也一定會退市,因此,我相信今後美股依然會重複出現大型上落市,繼續受退市陰霾影響。

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT : Reaping redevelopment returns and all set for the next phase of growth (SCB)

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT
PRICE as of 29 Oct 2013 SGD 1.57
PRICE TARGET SGD 1.66
Reaping redevelopment returns and all set for the next phase of growth

•Aims AMP Capital Industrial Trust’s (AAREIT) 2QFY14 results were in line with consensus.
• We raise our FY14/15-16/17E DPU estimates to factor in slightly stronger operational performance.
• With growth catalysts lined up, AAREIT offers a FY14-16E DPU CAGR of 5.2%, the highest among industrial SREITs.

CapitaMalls Asia: Chinese malls show underlying strength (OCBC)

CapitaMalls Asia:
Fair value S$2.55
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.04
versus: Current price S$2.05

Chinese malls show underlying strength
• 3Q13 results above view
• Firm numbers from Chinese malls
• Stable performance in Singapore

CMA reported 3Q13 PATMI of S$64.8m, which increased 4.0% YoY mainly due to profit recognition from Bedok Residences, the opening of Star Vista and a higher contribution from CMT. Adjusting for one-time items and fair value gains, 9M13 core PATMI cumulates to S$179.2m, forming 93% of our FY13 forecast and we judge this quarter to be above expectations mostly due to lower-than-anticipated opening costs from newly operational malls. CMA’s Chinese portfolio assets continue to put up firm numbers; the overall committed occupancy rate increased to 97.2% as at end Sep 13 from 96.9% as at end Jun 13. 9M13 tenant sales were also up a healthy 9.8% (excluding Tier 1 cities: 11.0%) while 9M13 shopper traffic increased 1.5%. We rate the stock with a BUY and an unchanged fair value estimate of S$2.55.

Thursday, October 31, 2013

CapitaLand quarterly profit falls on lower portfolio gains

Written by Bloomberg  
Thursday, 31 October 2013 11:08
CapitaLand, Southeast Asia’s biggest developer, said third-quarter profit fell 8.7% on lower gains from investment property sales, sending the shares to their biggest drop in a month.

Net income declined to $135.5 million in the three months ended Sept. 30, from $148.5 million a year earlier, the Singapore-based developer said in a stock exchange statement today. Sales rose 53% to $1.05 billion. Portfolio gains, which were mainly from the divestment of CapitaLand’s stake in three U.K. properties, dropped 79% to $15.7 million, the company said.

AmResearch raises YTL Power's fair value

AmResearch raises YTL Power's fair value
Business & Markets 2013
Written by Cynthia Blemin of theedgemalaysia.com  
Thursday, 31 October 2013 11:23

KUALA LUMPUR (Oct 31): AmResearch has maintained its hold call on YTL Power International Bhd with a higher fair value of RM1.86, following news that it had submitted the lowest bid for a 2,000MW power plant job.

The Edge Financial Daily reported today that YTL Power has submitted the lowest bid at 22 sen/kWh for the Energy Commission’s tender of Project 3B involving a 2,000MW greenfield coal-fired power plant.

REDtone 1Q net profit rises to RM4.15m

REDtone 1Q net profit rises to RM4.15m

Thursday, 31 October 2013 11:23

KUALA LUMPUR: REDtone International Bhd saw its earnings for the first quarter ended Aug 31, 2013 (1QFY14) increase by 107.5% due to a significantly higher contribution from its data and broadband business.

Net profit for the quarter stood at RM4.15 million from RM2 million in the previous corresponding period.

Midas Holdings : Accelerating to high speed (CIMB)

Midas Holdings
Current S$0.49
Target S$0.74
Accelerating to high speed

 China’s aggressive railway expansion plans present a tremendous opportunity for Midas given the company’s 60% market share and strong track record in the industry. We estimatethat Midas can win Rmb2.5bn-3.2bn worth of high-speed rail (HSR) orders by end-2015.

We raise our FY14-15 EPS to 17-19% above consensus; the market is likely to follow suit. We believe further HSR contract wins could catalyse the stock. Maintain Outperform, with our target price unchanged at S$0.74, based on 1.29x CY14 P/BV (20% discount to average P/BV during 2010-11).

Neptune Orient Lines : Turnaround...for the worse (CS)

Neptune Orient Lines
Maintain UNDERPERFORM
Price (28 Oct 13 , S$) 1.07
TP (prev. TP S$) 0.95 (0.95)
3Q13 results preview: Turnaround...for the worse

● Neptune Orient Lines (NOL) will release its 3Q13 results after the market close tomorrow (30 October) and we expect a loss of US$64 mn, compared with last year's pre-ex NPAT of US$41 mn and a corporate-monitored consensus of US$21 mn.

VIVA INDUSTRIAL TRUST -“Neutral” on VIT despite its 8.8% dividend yield (Limtan)

VIVA INDUSTRIAL TRUST
IPO Price - S$0.78
We are “Neutral” on VIT despite its 8.8% dividend yield for 2014 and 9% for 2015 due to the following reasons:
the average occupancy rate for its key properties (UE Bizhub East) and Technopark @ Chai Chee is only in the 60-70% range, hence requiring income support from United Engineers (for 5 years) and Capitaland (for 2 years) to meet the projected yields;

excluding the income support, the actual yield would be 6+%, which is about in line with that of more established industrial REITs such as AREIT (6+%) and Mapletree Industrial Trust (7%) and inferior to that of Cache Logistics (7+%), Cambridge Industrial (7+%) and Soilbuild Biz Space REIT (8+%);

Thai Beverage - A brewing storm (SCB)

Thai Beverage -
PRICE as of 23 Oct 2013 SGD 0.54
PRICE TARGET SGD 0.75
A brewing storm

■ Fraser & Neave (F&N) said a dispute has arisen with its joint venture partner, Union of Myanmar Economic Holdings Limited (UMEHL), over Myanmar Brewery Limited (MBL).

■ The dispute could complicate our restructuring thesis, wherein we see 75% probability of an injection of F&N’s F&B business (hence MBL) into Thai Beverage. We estimate that MBL contributes about one-third of F&N’s F&B EBITDA.

Pan United : Visit to Changshu Xinghua Port (Phillip)

Pan United Corp
Target Price (SGD) 1.270
- Previous Target Price (SGD) 1.210
Visit to Changshu Xinghua Port

Pan United’s Building Materials business commands a one-third market share in both cement and ready mixed concrete in Singapore. Its Ports & Logistics division owns 85.3% of CXP, a top 10 multi-cargo river port in China. The company also operates a Shipping fleet of 10 tug & barge pairs.

CapitaMalls Asia - Gradual growth on track (CIMB)

CapitaMalls Asia -
Current S$2.05
Target S$2.25
Gradual growth on track

3Q same-mall NPI grew a respectable 12% yoy and tenant sales in China, 9.8%, alleviating fears of a consumption weakness. Tenant sales in Singapore were stable, while pre-leasing also inched up. Operational improvements were on track.

3Q13 core EPS was in line, at 23% of our FY13 estimate (9M13 at 76%). Although we lower our FY13-15 core EPS for higher costs, we lift our target price after rolling forward our asset-based valuation. Our target remains based on a 10% discount to RNAV. Maintain Outperform with catalysts expected from further operational improvements.

Sheng Siong Group :S$54.9m acquisition (CIMB)

Sheng Siong Group  
Current S$0.63
Target S$0.74
S$54.9m acquisition

▊ Sheng Siong has purchased 18,500sf of retail space in the upcoming Junction 9, a mixed development in Yishun consisting of retail and residential components, for S$54.9m. TOP is planned for June 2017. This store will benefit from URA’s plan to rejuvenate Yishun town. The acquisition price represents 2.8% yield based on pro forma net property income but 6.1% yield if we factor in the potential store earnings rather than rental income. No change to our estimates or target price, still based on 23x CY14 P/E (10% disc. to Dairy Farm). Catalysts could come from earnings delivery from existing new stores. We keep our Outperform call.

曾淵滄專欄 31.10.13:有心人設震倉陷阱

昨日為期指結算日,恒指竟然急升457點。不過,一半的升幅來自下午3時後,這很可能與期指結算有關。

無論如何,恒指重上23000點,表示上星期所謂雙頂回落的走勢是假的,是讓初學圖表走勢、經驗較淺者中招的震倉手法,上星期恒指急跌時,我已指這只是有心人製造出來的恐慌。我也在上星期的文章中提醒大家,千萬不要胡亂止賺,止賺的結果就是錯失好股,如果你在上星期賣掉澳門賭業股止賺,昨天就後悔了。過去幾年,騰訊(700)與銀娛(027)這兩隻股的升幅超過100倍,不知令多少人止賺後懊悔不已。

Hi-P International: Cut In iPhone 5c Output To Hurt Profit (MDG)

Hi-P International: Cut In iPhone 5c Output To Hurt Profit
(NEUTRAL SGD0.69, TP: SGD0.67)

Hi-P released negative profit guidance last Friday, citing a drop in orders from one of its existing customers, which we believe may be Apple. Production orders for iPhone 5c have been cut following its disappointing debut. We slash our FY13 and FY14 estimates by 47% and 40% respectively. Maintain NEUTRAL, with our new SGD0.67 TP based on 0.95x FY13 P/BV (0.5 SD below five-year historical average).

Mapletree Commercial Trust : Growth expected to slow (CIMB)

Mapletree Commercial Trust  
Current S$1.27
Target S$1.28
Growth expected to slow

▊ Although the results are slightly better than expected, in view of 1) a lack of meaningful catalysts; 2) only 16% of retail leases up for renewal in FY15 and 3) relatively high valuations, we believe that the high valuations are not justified in this environment. 2QFY3/14 results were slightly above with 2Q DPU at 28% and 1HFY14 DPU at 54% of our full-year forecast. As a result, we raise FY14-16 DPUs by an average of 5.5%. However, with a lack of meaningful growth catalysts coupled with its high valuation in a rising interest rate environment, we downgrade to an Underperform from Neutral with a slightly higher DDM-based target price (discount rate: 7.9%) of S$1.28.

Wednesday, October 30, 2013

Dry bulk newbuilding deliveries to fall way short of expectations, favorable fundamentals to prevail in 2014

One of the major dry bulk ship owners, Pacific Basin, declared in its latest results' announcement that newbuilding newbuilding deliveries in the full-year 2013 to fall significantly short of the planned deliveries as scheduled at the start of 2013, and R.S. Platou forecast 7.9% overall dry bulk net fleet growth for the full year – marginally below their forecast of 8.1% demand growth. Pacific Basin also anticipates more favourable fundamentals to prevail starting in 2014 when dry bulk supply is forecast to grow at below 5% in the context of around 7% growth in demand.

The company noted that the pace of newbuilding deliveries in all four dry bulk segments has continued to slow, as has the rate of dry bulk capacity growth despite a slow-down in scrapping from record highs in 2012. The global fleet of 25,000-40,000 dwt Handysize vessels registered zero net growth during the third quarter while dry bulk capacity overall expanded by 1% net.

現金流穩健‧東益電子或派特別息

現金流穩健‧東益電子或派特別息
Created 10/30/2013 - 17:19
(吉隆坡30日訊)東益電子(GTRONIC,7022,主板科技組)2013財政年第三季表示符合預期,分析員看好該公司轉攻智能手機和平板電腦市場的前景,並上修其財測;同時基於該公司現金水平穩健,不排除再派特別股息的可能性。

M I D F研究表示,東益電子截至第三季杪,現金增加40.1%至1億4千870萬令吉,相等於每股現金53.8仙,因此該公司有再度派出特別股息的可能。

儘管股價揚升,但該公司的週息率還是保持在5%以上的吸引人水平。該公司股價迄今漲100%左右。

重組見成效‧KLCC產託盈利料上調

重組見成效‧KLCC產託盈利料上調
Created 10/30/2013 - 17:18
(吉隆坡30日訊)KLCC產托(KLCC,5235SS,主板產業投資信托組)重組“合訂”首度公佈的第三季業績符合和超越市場預測,分析員認為,這顯示重組的成果,該公司的中期業務發展焦點,料將落在旗下大地宏圖(Dayabumi)大廈重新發展,以及D1地段發展計劃,為中期盈利提供上調空間。

有能力併購

黃氏唯高達指出,KLCC產托負債率僅為14.5%,擁有強勁併購的潛能,而最有可能是零售或辦公樓產業的併購。

狮城拟设电力期货市场 杨忠礼电力料从中受惠

狮城拟设电力期货市场 杨忠礼电力料从中受惠
Created 10/30/2013 - 11:48
(吉隆坡29日讯)投行认为,新加坡计划开启亚洲第一个电力期货市场,料能为杨忠礼电力(YTLPOWR,6742,主板基建股)子公司提供良好平台,电力期货市场的功能则有助于加强集团的长期获利能力。

新加坡交易所(SGX)本周初表示,正在为电力期货市场做准备,目标是在2014年底前开启这个市场,目的是寻求规范电力交易,以防止投机活动。

科網股急瀉 曹Sir籲勿撈底

【本報訊】科網股大冧市,人稱曹Sir的中國高增長集團首席經濟學家曹仁超籲股民:「咪撈!」港股縱使連續兩日上升,惟個股疲弱情況明顯,強勢板塊更越瀉越急,當中科網股受累搜狐上季業績由盈轉巨虧下,昨日調整更驚人;累計今年勁飆2.5倍的金山(3888),昨單日暴瀉一成,網龍(777)亦勁跌7.6%。曹Sir認為板塊估值仍然貴,現時不宜急於撈底。

Apple’s iPhone sales soar But net profit for the year down to US$37bil on higher costs

Apple’s iPhone sales soar But net profit for the year down to US$37bil on higher costs

SAN FRANCISCO: Apple reported that it raked in billions of dollars as iPhone sales soared to new highs, but that costs of making its coveted devices was squeezing profit.

Apple said that it made a profit of US$7.5bil as iPhone sales sizzled in its recently-ended fourth fiscal quarter.

The US tech giant closed out its fiscal year with a net annual profit of US$37bil, an impressive figure but the first annual decline in earnings in 11 years.

YTL eyes water and power projects in Johor?

YTL eyes water and power projects in Johor?

PETALING JAYA: Conglomerate YTL Group is actively pursuing infrastructure assets in Johor which may include water treatment and power plants, sources said.

It is understood that among the assets YTL is eyeing is Ranhill Energy and Resources Bhd’s water treatment plants in the state. YTL and Ranhill could not be reached for comments.

Sources said YTL had already started initial discussions to secure large infrastructure projects in Johor.

CNMC Goldmine : Get Set for Exciting 3Q Results (VR)

CNMC Goldmine Holdings Limited
Get Set for Exciting 3Q Results
Increase Exposure
 Intrinsic Value S$0.800
 Prev Closing S$0.235

 CNMC Goldmine Holdings Limited looks set to produce a very strong set of 3Q results, following announcements of record gold dore production of 1,360oz in Jul and 3,420oz in Sep 2013. In contrast, 1H 2013 gold production was only 2,073oz. CNMC’s share price of S$0.235 as at 28 Oct 2013 suggests that the market may yet to have fully priced in the growth in CNMC’s production.

Boustead Singapore - Breaking new grounds in Iskandar Malaysia (AM)

Boustead Singapore -
LAST CLOSE: S$1.44
FAIR VALUE: S$1.91
Breaking new grounds in Iskandar Malaysia

Boustead enters into JV for developments in Iskandar Malaysia. Boustead announced that BP Lands, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Boustead Projects (wholly‐owned subsidiary of Boustead), has entered into a Shareholders Agreement with Tat Hong International Pte Ltd, AME Land Sdn Bhd and L&M Ground Engineering Sdn Bhd to jointly undertake mixed property development in Iskandar Malaysia through the JV company Tat Hong Industrial Properties Sdn Bhd.

Hi-P International : Stunted growth (DBSV)

Hi-P International
FULLY VALUED S$0.675
STI: 3,207.85
(Downgrade from HOLD)
Price Target: 12-month S$0.47 (Prev S$0.65)
Stunted growth

• Cuts earnings guidance due to lower orders from customers
• 3Q is affected by inventory provisions, we believe margins were lower than expected
• FY13F/14F EPC cut by 37%/25%
• Downgrade to Fully Valued, 32% downside to revised TP of S$0.47

Tiger Airways :Challenging outlook (CIMB)

Tiger Airways  
Challenging outlook
 UNDERPERFORM - Maintained
Current S$0.56
Target S$0.47

▊ Tiger Airways’s 2QFY14 was below expectations as its 1H core net loss of S$52m exceeded our previous full-year loss forecast by 25%. This was due to lower-than-forecast yields and load factors in Singapore as capacity expansion was not well absorbed. Associate losses were also larger than expected. We slash our forecasts and cut our target price, still based on 1x P/BV. Tiger Airways will struggle to make headway in the Philippines and Indonesia as a late entrant and its Australian operations are beset by yield pressures. Its core Singapore operations are also struggling with overcapacity. Hence, we maintain Underperform, with de-rating catalysts from its poor results.

Ascott Residence Trust : Driven by acquisitions (DBSV)

Ascott Residence Trust
BUY S$1.30
STI : 3,205.24
Price Target : 12-Month S$ 1.42
Driven by acquisitions

• 3Q13 results slightly ahead
• Refurbishments completing in subsequent quarters to drive organic growth
• Divestment of Somerset Grand Fortune Garden Beijing is positive
• BUY, TP S$1.42

Starhill Global REIT : Positives priced in (DBSV)

Starhill Global REIT
HOLD S$0.82
STI : 3,205.24
Downgrade from BUY
Price Target : 12-Month S$ 0.87 (Prev S$ 0.84)
Positives priced in

• 3Q13 results in line
• Weaker overseas income mitigated by strong performances at Ngee Ann City and Wisma Atria
• Downgrade to HOLD, TP raised to S$0.87

Suntec REIT: Poised for strong harvest (OCBC)

Suntec REIT:
Fair value S$1.85
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.091
versus: Current price S$1.73

Poised for strong harvest
• 3Q13 DPU up 1.8% QoQ
• Assets high on demand
• ROI for Suntec City AEI on track

Suntec REIT posted 3Q13 DPU of 2.289 S cents, up 1.8% QoQ (-2.6% YoY). This brings the 9M13 DPU to 6.766 S cents (-5.6%), meeting 73.4% of both consensus and our FY13F DPU.

Sheng Siong : Planning to buy stores (CIMB)

Sheng Siong Group
Current S$0.63
Target S$0.74
Planning to buy stores

▊ Sheng Siong has hinted that it could buy store space due to the difficulty in securing leases in the face of high rental rate demands. This does not mean that it will no longer be leasing stores, but rather it is open to this option in order to secure store space in good locations. We scale down our store expansion assumptions to reflect slower store expansion next year, which reduces our FY13-15 EPS estimates by 3-4%. This trims our target price, which is still based on 23x CY14 P/E (10% discount to Dairy Farm). We keep our Outperform call as this development does not impact ROEs yet. Further earnings delivery could catalyse the stock, led by existing new stores and margin expansion.

曾淵滄專欄 30.10.13:內銀炒上有玄機?

事有湊巧,還是別有用心?在重慶銀行(1963)及徽商銀行(3698)準備上市之際,昨日人民銀行又再放水逆回購,於是內銀股全線上升,這就可以凸顯這兩家準備上市的銀行股的定價相對便宜。是的,這兩家準備上市的銀行定價,的確很吸引,重慶行PB不足1倍,而徽商行據說也是一樣,以不足1倍的PB定價。目前為止,四大國有銀行的PB值均超過1倍。另一方面,前日越秀集團宣佈以2倍PB值收購創興銀行(1111)。

重慶行與徽商行都是地方銀行,地方銀行的缺點,是不易走出所處的地域;而他們的優點,就是具有主場優勢,敢於貸款給中小企,以賺取更高的利息收入,因此回報比大型國企銀行高。當然,高回報也帶來高風險,如何適當的分散風險,是地方銀行經營的關鍵。

First REIT: 3Q13 DPU below expectations (OCBC)

First REIT:
Fair value S$1.18
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.084
versus: Current price S$1.125

3Q13 DPU below expectations
• 3Q13 DPU rises 16.7% YoY
• Largely unaffected by weakening IDR
• Lower FV to S$1.18

First REIT (FREIT) reported 3Q13 revenue of S$22.8m and DPU of S$0.0196, representing an increase of 60.7% and 16.7% YoY, respectively. For 9M13, revenue jumped 43.1% to S$60.4m and was within our expectations.

Ascendas India Trust : Rupee weakness (DBSV)

Ascendas India Trust
HOLD S$0.66
STI : 3,205.24
Price Target : 12-Month S$ 0.73 (Prev S$ 0.75)
Rupee weakness

Rupee weakness
• Strengthening SGD-INR continues to be a drag on earnings
• Development of Aviator on track, 100% of space committed
• HOLD, TP revised to S$0.73

Highlights
Weak Rupee remains a drag. In INR terms, Ascendas India Trust (aitrust)’ s underlying operational performance remained fairly stable, with total property income increasing 1% to INR 1.4bn. This was due to higher portfolio occupancy rates of c97%, supported by high retention rates of c95%.

Tuesday, October 29, 2013

Wellcall’s expansion to meet five-year demand growth

Wellcall’s expansion to meet five-year demand growth
Business & Markets 2013
Written by Lyana Shohaimay of theedgemalaysia.com    
Tuesday, 29 October 2013 10:27

KUALA LUMPUR: Wellcall Holdings Bhd says its third factory, slated for completion in the first quarter (1Q) of 2015 will meet the market demand for its products over the next five years. Wellcall is one of the largest manufacturers of industrial rubber hoses in the country.

“We are currently in the process of finalising the factory layout and machinery,” said executive director Alex Chew Chee Chek during his session at the iCapital.biz Bhd Investor Day 2013 last Saturday.

MSC positioned to return to profitability

MSC positioned to return to profitability
Business & Markets 2013
Written by Wei Lynn Tang of theedgemalaysia.com    
Tuesday, 29 October 2013 10:22

KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysia Smelting Corp Bhd (MSC) is looking forward to a better 2014 financial year ending Dec 31 (FY14) as it seeks to complete its divestment of unprofitable tin mining operations in Indonesia by the end of this year.

Once the divestment is completed, the company expects to have more positive profit prospects and a cleaner balance sheet.  PT Koba Tin, MSC’s 75% owned subsidiary, did not receive the Indonesian government’s approval to renew the Contract of Work (CoW) which expired in March.

Suntec REIT : Post-results luncheon feedback (CIMB)

Suntec REIT
Post-results luncheon feedback
OUTPERFORM - Maintained
Current S$1.73
Target S$1.91

▊ We recently hosted a post 3Q13 results investor luncheon for SUN. Key issues discussed were 1) progress of the Suntec City AEI , 2) the long-term competitiveness of the mall, 3) office outlook and 4) acquisitions. We came away with our positive view on the stock intact. We maintain our Outperform rating with an unchanged target price of S$1.91. Targeted returns from the Suntec City AEI continues to show incremental progress and we expect successful execution to underpin a DPU CAGR of 6.5% in FY14-16. At a FY15 DPU yield of 6.3% and P/BV of 0.85x (widest discount among peers), we think the market has yet to fully appreciate this potential.

Tat Hong : Bring forth the Trojan horse (CIMB)

Tat Hong Holdings
Current S$0.95
Target S$1.08
Bring forth the Trojan horse
 TAT has unveiled its other business opportunity: unlocking its dormant real estate bank in Malaysia. However, we see the move to develop its plot of Iskandar land as a deviation from its core business. Regardless of the outcome, this corporate action is unsettling.

Starhill Global REIT: Delivering as promised (OCBC)

Starhill Global REIT:
Fair value S$0.95
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.050
versus: Current price S$0.82

Delivering as promised
• 3Q13 DPU up 9.0% YoY
• Strong results from Singapore and Australia
• No refinancing needs till 2015

Starhill Global REIT (SGREIT) reported 3Q13 DPU of 1.21 S cents, up 9.0% YoY. This brings the 9M13 DPU to 3.77 S cents, in line with our expectations. SGREIT’s Singapore portfolio continued to benefit from Wisma Atria (WA) redevelopment and upward rent reviews at Ngee Ann City (NAC).

Wilmar: Downgrade to HOLD on valuation (OCBC)

Wilmar:
Fair value S$3.33
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.06
versus: Current price S$3.45

Downgrade to HOLD on valuation
• Downgrade to HOLD
• No near-term re-rating catalyst
• Better 2H performance priced in

Wilmar International Limited’s (WIL) share price has done very well since we upgraded our rating to Buy on 6 Sep, rising as much as 14% to a recent high of S$3.50. As the current price is also 4% above our S$3.33 fair value (still based on 12.5x blended FY13/FY14F EPS), we downgrade our call to HOLD on valuation grounds. We also do not see any strong near-term catalysts to justify a re-rating before its 3Q13 results due 7 Nov.

CNOOC 3Q13 review - volume on track (CIMB)

CNOOC Limited
Current HK$15.28
Target HK$18.00
3Q13 review - volume on track

 CNOOC’s new project pipeline will deliver strong growth in the near term, while successful explorations and appraisals will ensure sustainable growth.

CNOOC’s production is on track to deliver strong growth in FY14-15, with its project pipeline on schedule and meeting expectations for FY13. We think its valuations are attractive at the current level and maintain an Outperform rating and our target price of HK$18, based on 9.8x CY14 P/E (2007-2010 historical average). Catalysts include Liwan production commencement by end of this year. CNOOC remains our top pick in the China oil and gas universe.

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: More Plans in the Pipeline? (VR)

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT
 Intrinsic Value S$1.78
 Prev Closing Price S$1.54
More Plans in the Pipeline?

 AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT’s (AA REIT) 2Q FY14 gross revenue and DPU rose 24.8% YoY and 10% YoY respectively to S$26.9m and 2.75 S cents on the back of maiden contribution from 20 Gul Way Phase Two and higher rental income from 27 Penjuru Lane. 1H FY14 gross revenue and DPU now form 49.9% and 47.7% of our full year forecasts.

First Real Estate Investment Trust : Seeing the DPU Uplift (VR)

First Real Estate Investment Trust
Seeing the DPU Uplift
Increase Exposure
 Intrinsic Value S$1.44
 Prev Closing S$1.14

 First Real Estate Investment Trust (First REIT) reported an “in-line” set of 3Q FY13 results with revenue and DPU rising 13.3% and 5.9% QoQ to S$22.8m and 1.96 S cents respectively.

We believe First REIT is progressing with its expansion plans of 1) acquiring some of its sponsor’s assets, 2) looking at healthcare related assets in Asia and 3) performing asset enhancement initiatives on some of its hospitals. We expect to hear something about the new acquisitions over the next six months and asset enhancement initiatives over the next three months.

Tiger Airways: Growing pains to sustain (OCBC)

Tiger Airways:
Fair value S$0.55
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.00
versus: Current price S$0.56

Growing pains to sustain
• Weaker than expected set of 2QFY14 results
• Associates will require further funding
• Lack of catalysts; downgrade to HOLD

We were disappointed by Tigerair’s (TR) 2QFY14 results, which showed a larger operating loss (S$12.8m vs. S$11.5m in 2Q13) due to higher operating costs.

Suntec REIT :One step back, two steps forward (CIMB)

Suntec REIT  
Current S$1.73
Target S$1.91
One step back, two steps forward

▊ Although earnings continued to be weak in 3Q13, we remain confident of the smooth execution of Phase 2 of the AEI which is slated for completion by 4Q13. A drop in earnings is expected to be mitigated by a full quarter’s contribution from Phase 1 in the near term. 3Q13 results were largely in line with our and consensus estimates. 3Q DPU accounted for 25% of our FY13 forecast while 9M13 DPU met 75% of our forecast. We roll forward our DDM-based target price (discount rate of 7.9%), raising it by 14%. We reiterate our Outperform rating in view of the stellar execution of the AEI at Suntec City as we anticipate respectable growth through it.

曾淵滄專欄29.10.13:越秀財技更上層樓

恒指昨日收報22806點,升108點,終於結束四連跌,全靠A股同時止跌。

前一陣子炒創興銀行(1111)收購概念的人,昨日紛紛呼倒楣,創興銀行股價跌8%,跌破越秀集團的收購價,出售創興銀行的母公司廖創興企業(194)更糟糕,股價一口氣跌了14%。

只購創銀75%股權
越秀集團的財技水平越來越高,一年前越秀地產(123)出售廣州IFC大廈給越秀房託(405),已經令人驚嘆,一買一賣後,兩家公司股價齊齊造好。

Sheng Siong : Resilient quarter (DBSV)

Sheng Siong Group
BUY S$0.625
STI : 3,204.80
Price Target : 12-Month S$ 0.80

Resilient quarter
• 3Q13 results in line; earnings growth of 8% driven by contribution from new stores
• Margins expanded further from lower input costs, outperforming all quarters since listing
• Maintain BUY and S$0.80 TP; valuations more attractive post 13% share price correction

Frasers Commercial Trust: Laudable set of results (OCBC)

Frasers Commercial Trust:
Fair value S$1.45
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.090
versus: Current price S$1.28

Laudable set of results
• 4QFY13 DPU up 18.9% YoY
• Portfolio maintaining its resilience
• Robust growth essentially locked in

Frasers Commercial Trust (FCOT) reported 4QFY13 DPU of 2.08 S cents, up 18.9% YoY. This brings the full-year DPU to 7.83 S cents (+17.0%), largely in line with both consensus and our DPU forecasts of 7.9 S cents.

Monday, October 28, 2013

負面衝擊料2年內消退‧消費稅有利信評前景

負面衝擊料2年內消退‧消費稅有利信評前景
Created 10/28/2013 - 17:30
(吉隆坡28日訊)延宕以久的消費稅(GST)將在2015年4月1日上路,經濟學家相信政治阻力已解除,再延宕可能性不大,加上新稅落實利多於弊,高通膨等過度期負面衝擊有望在首兩年內逐步消退,若能良好執行將有利於國家中期信貸評級前景。

聯昌研究表示,政府放眼在2015年4月1日起落實6%GST,以取代10%銷售與6%服務稅,相信隨著執政黨在大選中獲勝將可確保GST在沒有面對政治阻力的情況下落實,不會重導此前一再延宕的覆轍。

資本投資基金擬大馬和香港雙邊上市

資本投資基金擬大馬和香港雙邊上市
Created 10/28/2013 - 17:29
(吉隆坡28日訊)資本投資(ICAP,5108,主板封閉式基金組)花了將近一年時間所籌備的全球首支雙邊上市基金料在香港與大馬股票交易所上市籌資。

一名出席該公司股東大會的股東表示,Capital Dynamic基金管理公司創辦人兼董事經理陳鼎武透露已耗資800萬港元(326萬令吉)籌備雙邊上市基金計劃,當中包括投資銀行與法律費用。

“除了大馬股票交易所外,我們相信該基金也將在香港上市,因陳鼎武在股東大會問答環節中提及上市開銷時,是以港元作為貨幣單位。”

一股作气:全利资源放眼区域

一股作气:全利资源放眼区域
Created 10/28/2013 - 14:43
近年来积极进军和扩展东协市场的全利资源(QL,7084,主板消费产品股),特别专注于人口庞大的海外市场,前景备受看好。

全利资源更放眼未来,业务遍布东协各国,成为区域性的主要业者,更上一层楼。

近期,全利资源也宣布派送红股和发行附加股,这不仅能提高该股的流动量,更能增强其资产负债表。

麥嘉華(Marc Faber)筆記 28.10.13:股市尋寶 聚焦歐洲

最近有很多基金經理問我對新興市場的看法,相信本欄的忠實讀者都會知道我的答案。

其實,早於1月,我已質疑新興市場能否在今年再次大放異彩。到6月,我指出麥當勞和全球最大的建築設備生產商Caterpillar在亞洲的生意麻麻,預示新興市場增長潛力將令人失望,到頭來恐會拖累其本身的貨幣、債券和股票市場。

新興市場股債未穩陣
所以,對於亞洲新興市場股市的看法,我的建議就是「沽、沽、沽」,準備好沽出印尼、菲律賓和泰國股票。

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT : Higher DPU, Long Term Growth Intact (S&P)

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT
Price: SGD1.49 Date: October 23, 2013

Higher DPU, Long Term Growth Intact
• Results in line with expectations. AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT’s (the Trust) 1HFY14 (Mar) results were in line with our expectations. The Trust reported revenue and net property income (NPI) of SGD51.5 mln (+21.0% YoY) and SGD34.0 mln (+14.6% YoY), respectively. These were mainly due to higher rental contribution from 20 Gul Way following the completion of its Phase One and Phase Two redevelopment. Higher rental rates were achieved by 27 Penjuru Lane and 8 & 10 Pandan Crescent as the properties reverted to multitenancy properties.

Rickmers Maritime : 3Q13 earnings higher due to reduction in finance expense (S&P)

Rickmers Maritime
Price: SGD0.29 Date: October 24, 2013

Results Review
3Q13 earnings higher due to reduction in finance expense. Rickmers Maritime (RMT) reported 3Q13 revenue of USD36.6 mln (+0.8% YoY) and net profit of USD13.1 mln (+59.0% YoY). Profit was higher than we expected due to the expiry of four interest rate swaps resulting in interest savings.

Operating profit growth was flat. Both revenue and operating expense were relatively flat, with vessel utilization staying high at 99.9%.

Starhill Global REIT - Limited growth expected (CIMB)

Starhill Global REIT -
Current S$0.82
Target S$0.86
Limited growth expected

Although SGREIT continues to report a stable performance, we believe the upside to this stock is capped as a result of foreign exchange risks and, more importantly, the lack of clear, meaningful growth catalysts.

The 3Q13 results are in line, with DPU accounting for 24% of our full-year forecast and 9M13 DPU at 75%. In view of a lack of meaningful near-term growth catalysts, we maintain our Neutral rating and DDM-based target price (discount rate 8.1%).

Mapletree Industrial Trust : Reversionary upside limits occupancy risks (DBSV)

Mapletree Industrial Trust
BUY S$1.365
STI : 3,204.80
Price Target : 12-Month S$ 1.44 (Prev S$ 1.37)

Reversionary upside limits occupancy risks
• 2Q14 results above expectations
• Positive reversions to mitigate occupancy risks at Signature @ Changi Business Park
• Maintain BUY, TP raised to S$1.44

Yoma Strategic Holdings: To operate VW’s first service center in Yangon (OCBC)

Yoma Strategic Holdings:
Fair value S$0.84
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.01
versus: Current price S$0.77

To operate VW’s first service center in Yangon
• VW’s first service center in Yangon
• Similar agreement with Mitsubishi
• Continues to show deal-making ability

Yoma reported that it will operate Volkswagen’s first service center in Yangon, which is expected to begin operations in Oct 13. Yoma’s 70% owned subsidiary, German Car Industries Company will enter into a service partner agreement with Volkswagen Aktiengesellschaft (“VW”) to provide maintenance and repair services.

Sheng Siong Group: Stable 3Q13 results (OCBC)

Sheng Siong Group:
Fair value S$0.78
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.02
versus: Current price S$0.63

Stable 3Q13 results
• Highest net profit since 1Q12
• Margin stability as expected
• Willingness to buy store locations increases options

Sheng Siong Group’s (SSG) 3Q13 results were in-line with our expectations as revenue grew modestly by 4.8% YoY to S$177.8m, gross and operating profit improved to S$41.2m and S$12.6m, respectively, despite higher operating expenses, and 3Q13’s net profit of S$10.6m was the highest for the group since 1Q12.

Halcyon Agri 9M13 Results: Looking To A Solid Year-End Finish (UOBKH)

Halcyon Agri
Share Price S$0.765
Target Price S$1.00
9M13 Results: Looking To A Solid Year-End Finish

9M13 Results
• Average gross material profit (GMP) of US$413/tonne in 9M13 on sales volume of 55,822 tonnes (+8% yoy). Despite the continued volatility in natural rubber (NR) prices, Halcyon Agri (HACL) managed to achieve a very strong GMP of US$449/tonne in 3Q13 on the back of improved supply of raw materials after a first half that was affected by flooding and low rubber tapping activity.

CapitaMall Trust: Another quarter of value creation (OCBC)

CapitaMall Trust:
Fair value S$2.35
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.100
versus: Current price S$2.00

Another quarter of value creation
• 3Q13 DPU up 5.8% YoY
• AEI works on track for completion
• Strong retail leasing demand

CapitaMall Trust’s (CMT) 3Q13 DPU came in at 2.56 S cents, up 5.8% YoY. This is in line with our expectations, as 9M13 DPU has met 75.1% of FY13 distribution forecast.

曾淵滄專欄 28.10.13:樓市劈價 騙人玩意

過去幾天,港股在美國預託證券表現相當好,但一回到香港,卻因內地股市下跌而回軟,恒指上星期走勢更出現雙頂現象,令短期壓力增加。不過,我依然看好中長期走勢,股市在三中全會前的調整,正好為後市加添動力。

新地(016)賣天璽貨尾,出現千名有億萬身家的人迫爆售樓處;新世界(017)與會德豐(020)賣The Austin,一日套現21億元;恒隆地產(101)賣浪澄灣貨尾,更出現排隊黨。地產商造勢的手法,水平還真不差。全世界的人都喜歡做一窩蜂的事,一見有人排隊搶購,想也不想也馬上加入搶購的隊伍。那些樓盤熱賣一天,第二天就加價,天璽的最新價單在扣除所有的優惠後,也沒有任何真正的優惠了,地產商先提價,然後提供優惠,算起來仍是市價,這與我們經常看到的大劈價新聞一樣。

Frasers Commercial Trust : More surprises ahead (DBSV)

Frasers Commercial Trust
BUY S$1.28
STI : 3,204.80
Price Target : 12-Month S$ 1.46 (Prev S$ 1.44)
More surprises ahead

• 4Q13 results in line; outlook remains positive
• DPU CAGR of 7-8% over FY14-15
• BUY, TP revised slightly to S$1.46

Highlights
3Q13 DPU of 2.08 Scts in line. Frasers Commercial Trust (FCOT) reported a 19% and 17% y-o-y decline in gross revenue and NPI to S$28.8m and S$21.9m, respectively.

Frasers Centrepoint Trust Next step: Changi City Point acquisition (DBSV)

Frasers Centrepoint Trust
BUY S$1.845
STI: 3,210.21
Price Target: 12-Month S$2.14
Next step: Changi City Point acquisition

• 4Q13 DPU of 2.98Scts in line.
• AEI-driven reversion rates to moderate from FY14
• Acquisition of Changi City Point in FY14 to drive earnings
• Maintain BUY, TP S$2.14

Highlights
4Q13 results in line. FCT’s 4Q13 gross revenue grew to S$40.2m (+3% y-o-y), while NPI fell slightly to S$27.3m (-5% y-o-y).

Sunday, October 27, 2013

Sunway Bhd - The Rising Sun Flag in South Quay (MKE)

Sunway Bhd -
Hold (unchanged)
Share price: MYR2.96
Target price: MYR2.97 (unchanged)
The Rising Sun Flag in South Quay

A positive development. We are positive on Sunway’s latest JV with Mitsui Fudosan – one of the leading developers in Japan – for its South Quay project. The JV should raise Sunway’s profile among the Japanese community and allow it to tap into the latter’s existing clientele base. No change to our earnings forecasts and MYR2.97 TP (0.68x P/RNAV; 0.1x above its historical mean). Maintain HOLD.

I-Bhd to expand beyond Shah Alam with land acquisition

I-Bhd to expand beyond Shah Alam with land acquisition
Property
Written by E Jacqui Chan of theedgemalaysia.com  
Friday, 25 October 2013 10:27

SHAH ALAM: I-Bhd, the master developer of the 72-acre (28.8ha) i-City, is embarking on its maiden foray outside Shah Alam in Selangor with the acquisition of a 1.05-acre tract for RM132 million in the Kuala Lumpur city centre (KLCC).

The tract was acquired by I-Marcom Sdn Bhd, a subsidiary of of I-Bhd, from Sumuracres Sdn Bhd. Sumuracres is a wholly owned subsidiary of Sumurwang Properties Sdn Bhd, which in turn is wholly owned by Sumurwang Sdn Bhd. I-Bhd executive chairman Tan Sri Lim Kim Hong is a substantial shareholder of Sumurwang Sdn Bhd.

More reverse takeover activity in Singapore market


IGB REIT - An Organic Growth Story (MKE)

IGB REIT -
Hold (unchanged)
Share price: MYR1.22
Target price: MYR1.36 (from MYR1.41)
An Organic Growth Story

Maintain HOLD. IGBR’s 9M13 core net profit of MYR153.9m was in line at 74% of our full-year forecast and 73% of consensus. Short-term earnings will be driven by organic growth of its existing retail assets – Mid Valley Megamall (MVM) and The Gardens Mall (TGM). There is no change to our FY13-15 earnings forecasts but we shave our TP to MYR1.36 (-3.5%) after factoring in a higher beta of 0.71 (industry average; from 0.6) in view of a more volatile bond market.

Protasco - A Hero Within (RHB)

Protasco -
Target Price: MYR1.80
Price: MYR1.33
A Hero Within

We  initiate  coverage  on  construction-cum-property  company  Protasco with  a  BUY  recommendation  and  a  FV  of  MYR1.80.  Protasco  does  not have to look very far for growth opportunities, as the “hero” is in itself as  it  is  sitting  on  a  prime  100-acre  university  campus  land  plot  in  KL, which  is  ripe  for  redevelopment.  It  is  able  to  substantially  grow  its construction business, backed by a strong pipeline of new jobs.

3rd Quarter Stock Picks: In House Selections (Shares Investment)

25 OCTOBER 2013
3rd Quarter Stock Picks: In House Selections
By Choo Hao Xiang and Louis Kent Lee

We present to you Shares Investment‘s stock picks for the fourth quarter of 2013.

CapitaRetail China Trust: Capitalising On Maturing Portfolio (*new)

Performance
Despite talks about slowing growth, China is definitely the place to be doing business in. After all, it is the fastest growing economy worldwide. The latest gross domestic product data added to evidence that China can hold its ground. The main argument lies with the nation being the most populous and where rapid urbanisation is taking place. These two factors will underpin the country’s retail sales, which as seen in the chart below is in a strong uptrend.

Yoma Poised To Soar In Q4?

 25 OCTOBER 2013
Yoma Poised To Soar In Q4?
By Andy Yew

Shares of Yoma Strategic Holdings (Yoma) closed $0.78 on Thursday (24 October 2013) after a sideway narrow range consolidation for almost 2 weeks. This triggered my curiosity to check out this stock as it seems to have a double bottom setup.

For short-term and mid-term, my chart is bullish bias as its price is above the 10 simple moving average (SMA) and 50 SMA. The price coincide with the RSI (relative strength index) showing a higher low formation. This indicates that there is a possibility of a big price movement if its price starts to breakout above the resistance of $0.84. Short-term support can be seen at $0.705 where the recent low formed in early October. Traders have to watch out for the downside risk if its price breaks below this level.

Frasers Centrepoint Trust: Repeating its success (OCBC)

Frasers Centrepoint Trust:
Fair value S$2.02
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.113
versus: Current price S$1.85

Repeating its success
• 4QFY13 DPU up 10.0% YoY
• Positive reversion of 10.8% achieved
• Bigger malls likely to underpin growth

Frasers Centrepoint Trust’s (FCT) FY13 DPU came in at 10.93 S cents (+9.2%), spot on with our DPU projection. We note that overall performance has remained robust, with portfolio occupancy maintained at a high 98.4%, while positive rental reversion of 10.8% was achieved.

ChanYanChong-Commentary 25.10.2013 - Temporary Respite For US Debt Issue But Uncertainty Hangs

25 OCTOBER 2013
Temporary Respite For US Debt Issue But Uncertainty Hangs
By Dr Chan Yan Chong

Republicans and Democrats have finally reached a tentative agreement to postpone the deadline for negotiating the US debt ceiling to early next year. But I believe that President Obama will not budge from his position on the matter because the Republicans’ popularity had been slipping over the course of the negotiations thus far.

Obama said that if the Republicans fail to approve the increase in debt limit, the US will have to default on its national debts for the first time since its founding.

Pantech Group :2H14 Earnings To Accelerate (Kenanga)

Pantech Group Holdings -
Price: RM1.06
Target Price: RM1.28
2H14 Earnings To Accelerate

Period  2Q14/1H14

Actual vs. Expectations  Pantech Group Holdings Bhd (PANTECH)’s 2Q14 net profit of RM15.3m brought its 1H14 net profit to RM29.1m which is largely within expectations, accounting for 44.0% and 44.5% of our (RM66.1m) and the consensus (RM65.3m) full year estimates, respectively.

Hutchison Port Holdings Trust: 3Q13 missed expectations (OCBC)

Hutchison Port Holdings Trust:
Fair value US$0.74
add: 12m dividend forecast US$0.05
versus: Current price US$0.77

3Q13 missed expectations
• 3Q13 revenue up 1%; PATMI down 8%
• Cut topline forecasts
• Reduce FV to US$0.74

Hutchison Port Holdings Trust (HPHT) reported 3Q13 results that were lower than ours and the street’s expectations. Revenue climbed 1% YoY to HK$3.36b.

Malaysia Building Society - Diversification Bears Fruit (RHB)

Malaysia Building Society -
Target Price: MYR3.10
Price: MYR2.82
Diversification Bears Fruit

We  upgrade  MBSB  to  BUY  on  account  of  our  positive  outlook  on  the revival  in  its  corporate  loan  book  momentum  and  well  controlled expense  ratio.  These  factors  should  mitigate  the  more muted  potential of  its  retail  portfolio  and  personal  financing  (PF)  business.  This  has been  priced  in  as  the  stock  price  has  shed  10%  in  the  past  3  months. Our new MYR3.40 FV implies an ex-rights FV of MYR3.10.

Engtex Group - The king of water pipes

Engtex Group
Current RM1.48
NOT RATED

The domestic larger-diameter pipe industry is set for a demand upcycle and Engtex occupies the throne of the duopolistic supply chain. The Selangor water supply capex and nationwide pipe replacement programmes are key drivers, on top of new economic growth areas. Production ramp-up will drive profits to new highs due to operating leverage. Order backlog is set to surpass the recent high of 10k tonnes, driven by water infrastructure build-out. At 6-7x FD FY14-15 P/E, valuations are very attractive. The group's business could be valued at RNAV of RM3.64/share. With a 30% discount similar to Puncak Niaga, the stock could be worth RM2.55/share, offering 62% upside.

Global Entrepreneurship Summit 2013-Tony Fernandes



Global Entrepreneurship Summit 2013 -Francis Yeoh


Warren E. Buffett(沃伦•巴菲特)
Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful
别人贪婪时我恐惧, 别人恐惧时我贪婪
投资只需学好两门课: 一,是如何给企业估值,二,是如何看待股市波动
吉姆·罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)
“错过时机”胜于“搞错对象”:不会全军覆没!”
做自己熟悉的事,等到发现大好机会才投钱下去

乔治·索罗斯(George Soros)

“犯错误并没有什么好羞耻的,只有知错不改才是耻辱。”

如果操作过量,即使对市场判断正确,仍会一败涂地。

李驰(中国巴菲特)
高估期间, 卖对, 不卖也对, 买是错的。
低估期间, 买对, 不买也是对, 卖是错的。

Tan Teng Boo


There’s no such thing as defensive stocks.Every stock can be defensive depending on what price you pay for it and what value you get,
冷眼(冯时能)投资概念
“买股票就是买公司的股份,买股份就是与陌生人合股做生意”。
合股做生意,则公司股份的业绩高于一切,而股票的价值决定于盈利。
价值是本,价格是末,故公司比股市重要百倍。
曹仁超-香港股神/港股明灯
1.有智慧,不如趁势
2.止损不止盈
成功者所以成功,是因为不怕失败!失败者所以失败,是失败后不再尝试!
曾淵滄-散户明灯
每逢灾难就是机会,而是在灾难发生时贱价买股票,然后放在一边,耐性地等灾难结束
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