Saturday, October 12, 2013

馬屋業發股稀釋衝擊不大

馬屋業發股稀釋衝擊不大
Created 10/11/2013 - 18:12
(吉隆坡11日訊)馬屋業(MBSB,1171,主板金融組)擬發售附加股籌措14億7千萬令吉,並落實股息再投資計劃,分析員表示此乃推動未來業務增長的必要措施,可舒緩市場對其金融業務增長憂慮,加上稀釋情況比預期為輕,建議股東認購附加股。

根據初步建議,馬屋業打算以5配2比例,以及2令吉零4仙參考價為基準,發售附加股籌措最多14億7千萬令吉,用來擴充金融業務和購買金融工具,同時有意落實股息再投資計劃。但實際附加股配售比例和發售價仍有待董事部確定。

Unfortunate Incident For MASwings

Unfortunate Incident For MASwings

An aircraft belonging to MAS subsidiary MASwings crashed in Kudat, Sabah, yesterday. Two people were killed and four were injured in the incident, which may have tarnished the airline’s good safety track record. We believe that AirAsia is now the safest airline under our coverage. We maintain our OVERWEIGHT call on the sector and NEUTRAL on MAS, pending investigation results.

Shares Investment Conference 2013: “We Are Way Due For A Correction!”

11 OCTOBER 2013
Shares Investment Conference 2013: “We Are Way Due For A Correction!”
By Louis Kent Lee

We know it’s hard to know what to invest in, and of course, we know that it’s even harder to know when, to invest. That’s why we invited the best of the best, to give their invaluable insights on investments at Shares Investment Conference 2013. Read on to find out what you missed, when the best time to invest in is, the best strategy that they’ve all agreed upon.

It was raining. The foyer at Kallang Theatre continues to be filled up with an enthusiastic crowd as they waited eagerly in line to listen to investment experts gracing the Shares Investment Conference 2013. The heavy weight speakers for the event were, Dr Chan Yan Chong, Hu Li Yang and Dar Wong.

Property – Malaysia Tightening Down South.. (UOBKH)

Property – Malaysia
Tightening Down South..

The Johor state government recently announced that it is increasing the foreigner property processing fee from RM10,000 per transaction to 4-5% of property value from Jan 14 onwards. Other than the direct Iskandar proxy UEM Sunrise, companies within our coverage will not be significantly impacted by this new measure that the state has embarked on. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT with Sunway as our top sector pick.

Glomac : Disposal of Office Building in Melbourne(TA)

Glomac Bhd
Last Traded: RM 1.15
TP: RM 1.45
Disposal of Office Building in Melbourne

Asset Disposal in Melbourne
Glomac’s 45.6% owned associate, VIP & Glomac Pty Ltd (VIPG) had inked a contract to dispose of its office building in Melbourne CBD, Australia to Hiap Hoe Limited, for AUD43.8mn (or RM132.7mn). The building, which is located at 380 Lonsdale Street, comprises a 7-level carpark with 445 bays and 5,130 sqm of office and 324 sqm of retail space.

Blumont: Price fall unrelated to Cokal deal



Singapore Exchange to adopt circuit breakers by early 2014

Written by Bloomberg  
Friday, 11 October 2013 19:09
Singapore Exchange, Southeast Asia’s biggest bourse, plans to add circuit breakers by early next year after a plunge in shares of three commodity companies erased $6.9 billion ($8.6 billion) in market value over three days.

Under the proposal, trading of a stock will be halted for 5 minutes if it moves 10% in either direction, the exchange said in an e-mailed response to queries. The bourse said it sought public feedback on the plan in June.

“We aim to introduce the dynamic circuit breakers by early next year subject to regulatory approvals,” Joan Lew, a spokeswoman for the exchange, said in the statement yesterday.

Mudajaya : Turning the corner (CIMB)

Mudajaya
Current RM2.75
Target RM3.24
Turning the corner

 Mudajaya recently staged a rebound and we believe this is sustainable. We met management and things are looking promising for domestic and regional renewable-energy IPPs, which should transform its earnings profile. We remain bullish on power-plant job wins in 2H.

Globetronics : Scaling new heights (DBSV)

Globetronics Technology
BUY RM2.92
KLCI : 1,776.82
Price Target : 12-Month RM 3.50
Scaling new heights

Roadshow indicates strong interest in Group
Key catalysts: TCXO capacity expansion and potentially > 75% payout of FY13 NI
Valuation attractive at 11-13x FY14-15F EPS, supported by 6-7% net yield and 23-24% ROE
Maintain BUY with RM3.50 TP

美国股市随时崩盘 罗杰斯告诫投资者小心

美国股市随时崩盘 罗杰斯告诫投资者小心
Created 10/08/2013 - 07:22
(新加坡7日讯)美国著名投资人,量子基金联合创始人,“商品大王”杰姆‧罗杰斯告诫美国投资者:“要小心。”

本周罗杰斯在新加坡接受CNBC.com电话采访时表示:“美国是有史以来最大的负债国。我们的股市或许还有非常非常大的涨幅,但这是脱离现实的。我要提醒投资者他们正处在一个虚幻的乐境中,要小心。当人们大唱赞歌的时候,我会说,‘这种场面我以前见过,我知道是时候离场了’。”

对于罗杰斯来说,由于美联储的量化宽松政策以及类似的计划在全世界泛滥,美国股市崩盘只是时间问题。

LION INDUSTRIES - Seeing Deep Value

LION INDUSTRIES - Seeing Deep Value
Author: PublicInvest   |   Publish date: Mon, 7 Oct 11:15

We met Lion Industries Corporation (LICB) management to get an update on the group‟s operations and steel industry outlook. We believe market concerns over the steel sector and inter-Lion group receivables have overshadowed the steep discount (80%) that LICB is trading to its net book value of RM4.39/share as at end-FY13 (June). While steel sector outlook is still weak in the near term and value of assets embedded in the group will take time to be unlocked, we view the current price of LICB of around RM0.90 as an attractive entry level at a price/book value of only 0.2x, in particular for investors who are willing to hold for a longer period. We derive our fair value of RM1.28 for LICB based on sum-of-parts valuation.

CB Industrial Product - Targeting The World As Its Market

CB Industrial Product -
Price Target:3.18
Last Price:2.79
Targeting The World As Its Market

We are initiating coverage on CB Industrial Product Holding ("CBIP") with an OUTPERFORM rating and TP of RM3.18 (implying a potential total return of 18.2%). CBIP is the biggest and the only listed palm oil mill construction company in the world with sizeable market cap of RM740m.

Friday, October 11, 2013

顶级手套出价7200万 私有化福斯特

吉隆坡11日讯)顶级手套(TOPGLOV,7113,主板工业股)今天宣佈以约7200万令吉,或每股0.15新元,向在新加坡上市的子公司--福斯特手套(Medi-Flex)提出自愿性除牌献议。

配合上述宣佈,顶级手套和福斯特手套今天双双停牌。根据顶级手套发佈的文告,董事局是通过顶级手套旗下的Top Glove私人有限公司,向福斯特手套董事局提呈一份建议书,献议福斯特手套自愿从新加坡交易所除牌下市。

配合上述献议,华侨银行(OCBC)受委担任顶级手套的財务顾问。顶级手套对福斯特手套提出每股0.15新元收购价,收购福斯特手套的所有股票,但不包括库存股。

馬屋業發股稀釋衝擊不大

馬屋業發股稀釋衝擊不大
Created 10/11/2013 - 18:12
(吉隆坡11日訊)馬屋業(MBSB,1171,主板金融組)擬發售附加股籌措14億7千萬令吉,並落實股息再投資計劃,分析員表示此乃推動未來業務增長的必要措施,可舒緩市場對其金融業務增長憂慮,加上稀釋情況比預期為輕,建議股東認購附加股。

根據初步建議,馬屋業打算以5配2比例,以及2令吉零4仙參考價為基準,發售附加股籌措最多14億7千萬令吉,用來擴充金融業務和購買金融工具,同時有意落實股息再投資計劃。但實際附加股配售比例和發售價仍有待董事部確定。

依文仙台專注爭取中東工程

依文仙台專注爭取中東工程
Created 10/11/2013 - 10:49
(吉隆坡10日馬新電)依文仙台(SENDAI,5205,主板建筑組)看好中東市場潛能,將繼續專注於開發當地基建工程市場。

該公司執行主席丹斯里AK納丹相信,中東市場將陸續頒發更多基建工程,有助於加強這些業務為該公司營收作出的貢獻。

他在第四屆全球創業家峰會前,接受《馬新社》訪問時說:“我期待以迪拜為中心,和所有中東國家建立長期的商業聯繫。”

扩展融资业务 马建屋拟发附加股筹14.7亿

扩展融资业务 马建屋拟发附加股筹14.7亿

(吉隆坡10日讯)马建屋(MBSB,1171,主板金融股)计划发行附加股筹资14亿7000万令吉,筹得资金将用作发展融资业务。

马建屋今日向大马证券交易所报备此事,惟该公司尚未决定附加股发行价格。

筹得资金中的4亿令吉将在6个月内用以购置符合融资工具资格的流动资产;10亿6050万令吉将用作扩展融资业务(6个月);950万令吉将用作支付附加股发行作业费用。

Singapore exchange steps up stock trading scrutiny; confusion over curbs

Singapore exchange steps up stock trading scrutiny; confusion over curbs

Written by Reuters  
Friday, 11 October 2013 18:16
Several brokerages in Singapore could lose millions of dollars in the wake of recent sharp price falls in three stocks, traders said, and as the stock exchange probes short-selling in two of the stocks early this week when they were subject to trading curbs.

Singapore Exchange (SGX) , both the market operator and regulator, suspended trading in shares of Blumont Group, Asiasons Capital and LionGold Corp last Friday following the big price moves. On Sunday, it declared them “designated securities” - its first such move in five years.

COSCO : Emerging From The Woods (UOBKH)

COSCO Corp
Share Price S$0.800
Target Price S$0.84
Emerging From The Woods; Upgrade To HOLD

COSCO (S) is poised to secure two drilling jack-up orders with an estimated value of US$200m. This will raise its contract wins to US$2.3b ytd, on track to meet our projection of US$2.5b for 2013. Given a likely new dry-bulk shipbuilding cycle from 2014 onwards, we upgrade the stock to HOLD. We expect better yards like YZJ to benefit first. Our target price is raised from S$0.70 to S$0.84. Entry price: S$0.75 and below.

SMRT Corporation: Laying low (OCBC)

SMRT Corporation:
Fair value S$1.30
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.02
versus: Current price S$1.30

Laying low
• Free-ride scheme increasing ridership
• Weakness priced in by the street
• A stable share price for now?

Since end-Aug, SMRT’s share price has stabilised between a tight band of 1.29-1.30, which has helped to arrest its slide of 10% following its 1Q14 results.

SPDR Straits Times Index ETF: Reclassification gives retail investors access to blue-chip Singapore play

Monday, 07 October 2013 16:23
The recent reclassification of the SPDR Straits Times Index ETF (SPDR STI ETF) as an excluded investment product (EIP) has made this ETF more accessible to retail investors. And as far as ETFs go, this is one that merits a closer look. Formerly known as the streetTracks STI ETF, the SPDR STI ETF was the first ETF to be established locally. Today, it is among the two most actively traded and most liquid of the Singapore equity ETFs listed on the Singapore Exchange.

Real estate investment trusts: QE taper prospect undermines outlook, but analysts see pockets of opportunity

Real estate investment trusts: QE taper prospect undermines outlook, but analysts see pockets of opportunity
Written by Goola Warden  
Monday, 07 October 2013 16:26

The FTSE REIT Index jumped 22 points to 748 on Sept 19, the day after the US Federal Reserve said it would continue with its quantitative easing policy. Since then, the index has eased to 733 as at Oct 1. That’s 5% higher than the low of 697 reached on Aug 29. However, it’s still a long way from its peak of 890 in May, before the Fed sparked a broad sell-off by indicating it would soon begin tapering its US$85-billiona- month bond-buying programme. (See QE tapering weighting down valuations table.)

曾淵滄專欄 1110.13:買賣兩閒 大戶亂舞

大家都在等待美國總統奧巴馬與共和黨的談判,而談判的死線是10月17日,相信直至10月16日仍不會有結果,這是談判的慣例。

等候談判期間,許多人寧可觀望也不敢買賣,萬一真的談判不成,造成的破壞很大,這有如在一張賭枱,贏面90%,但賭10元只賠1元,輸面僅10%,但輸了輸10元,因此選擇不賭的人很多,不想為了贏1元而虧10元。

實際上,談判就算成功,也不可能一勞永逸地解決國債上限的問題。相信也只是將國債上限稍稍提高而已,讓奧巴馬吊命,再捱半年,半年後再談判,無窮無盡的談判,逼奧巴馬不要亂加社會福利、醫療福利。

Rotary Engineering - Strong Earnings Visibility Backed By S$1b Orderbook (UOBKH)

Rotary Engineering -
Share Price S$0.665
Target Price S$0.880
Strong Earnings Visibility Backed By S$1b Orderbook

The stock is currently trading at 7.9x 2014F PE despite gaining 11.9% since our recent initiation. With a strong orderbook of S$1.0b, Rotary is likely to enjoy good earnings visibility over the next 24 months. Dividends are also likely to recover in 2013 and 2014 from a low of 0.5 S cents/share in 2012, providing a dividend yield of 2.3% and 5.0% respectively. Maintain BUY. Target price: S$0.88.

Thursday, October 10, 2013

新兴市场展望恶化 IMF调低全球增长预估

新兴市场展望恶化 IMF调低全球增长预估
Created 10/10/2013 - 12:10
(华盛顿9日讯)由于认为新兴市场前景正恶化,国际货币基金(IMF)下调对全球经济增长的预测,这已是它连续第六度调降预期。

与7月份的评估相比,IMF将今年的全球经济增长预期下调0.3个百分点至2.9%,也将明年的预期下修0.2个百分点至3.6%。

在最新的《世界经济展望》报告中,IMF列出了两个可能会主导全球经济短期运行趋势的因素:1.美国联储局(FED)退出宽松货币政策的速度,可能对经济增长起到促进或阻碍的作用;如果退出步伐过快,将导致许多经济体的借款成本会过快上升,全球经济增长就会陷入停滞,也可能导致投资者从新兴市场大规模撤资,引发新兴市场震荡进一步加剧。

聯儲易帥 市場又爆鑊?


全球關注的聯儲局下任掌門人揭盅,美國總統奧巴馬香港時間周四凌晨,提名現任副主席耶倫,接替任期明年一月底屆滿的伯南克,成為聯儲局百年歷史上首位女主席。無巧不成書,前三位掌舵人在接任之際遇上重大金融危機為他們入職贈興,彷彿為「新官之咒」。

Fragrance, Global Premium Hotels and Oxley see purchases by top management

Written by Amy Tan  
Monday, 07 October 2013 17:03
Koh Wee Meng, founder andchairman of property developer Fragrance Group, has been building up his direct stakes in his property and hotel businesses. On Sept 27, Koh acquired 1.5 million shares of Fragrance at 22.5 cents each. That purchase raises his final direct shareholdings to 4.94 billion shares, or 73.6% of the company. Together with his wife, Lim Wan Looi, he owns 84.5% of Fragrance.

Koh, as non-executive director of Global Premium Hotels, also saw his deemed stake in the hotel operator rise to 52.3% after his wife purchased 1.8 million shares at 25 cents each on Sept 27 and 30. Koh’s direct interest in Global Premium Hotel stands at 58 million shares, or 5.5% of the company.

Golden Agri: Headwinds remain (OCBC)

Golden Agri:
Fair value S$0.465
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.010
versus: Current price S$0.515

Headwinds remain
• Bearish CPO outlook to early 2014
• US debt ceiling worries
• Likely to underperform

Golden Agri-Resources (GAR), being one of the largest palm oil plantation owners in the world, could continue to underperform with average CPO prices down 22% YoY and 2% QoQ in 3Q13.

Ascendas REIT: Heading for another harvest (OCBC)

Ascendas REIT:
Fair value S$2.45
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.140
versus: Current price S$2.27

Heading for another harvest
• Past projects to come to fruition
• Good exposure to robust sub-markets
• Strong financial standing

We are positive that Ascendas REIT (A-REIT) will put up a firm showing in FY14, as it is likely to benefit not only from incremental rental income from The Galen and continued positive rental reversions, but also from the completion of its various investment projects.

SATS : Takeaways From Company Visit And An Increase In Target Price (UOBKH)

SATS :
Share Price S$3.45
Target Price S$3.32

Takeaways From Company Visit And An Increase In Target Price

Pax throughput at Changi has been stronger than expected and this should translate into higher revenue. Meanwhile, a potential cargo JV in Oman will allow it to diversify to an important Middle Eastern gateway. Maintain HOLD but we raise our target price by 6% to S$3.32. Suggested entry price is S$3.15.

TAT HONG : WEAKNESS ALREADY PRICED IN (OCBC)

TAT HONG
Fair value S$0.96
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.04
versus: Current price S$0.93

WEAKNESS ALREADY PRICED IN
• Better clarity on FY14/15 outlook
• Aussie operations to remain weak
• But other markets provide stability

Upgrade to HOLD
Following our recent discussion with Tat Hong’s management,

曾淵滄專欄 10.10.13:美債怎可能變廢紙

美股連跌兩天,市場仍在炒作美國債務上限問題。奧巴馬說,如果共和黨不批准提高債限,美國將會發生立國以來第一次的國家債務違約,到了期的國債就沒錢還;這將嚴重影響美元地位,從此美國國債可能沒人買。共和黨則說,總統不能以此為由,任意花錢,國會必須加以限制。

兩年前,歐債危機源起於希臘無力償還到期的國債,欠債不還即是違約,影響很大。

不過,兩年前的歐債危機令股市急跌,但如今的美債危機下,美股雖跌,跌幅卻不大,理由之一是美國國債上限問題不是第一次發生,去年也發生過。

Perennial China Retail Trust : Supply-led rental weakness and longer gestation period (CIMB)

Perennial China Retail Trust
Current S$0.53
Target S$0.57
Supply-led rental weakness and longer gestation period

 We visited PCRT’s malls recently and came back feeling less sanguine about its outlook. Occupancy rates arehealthy butat the expense of lower rental. We expect the rise in retail mall supply longer gestation periodto curb rental growth in the near-to mid-term.

We factor in weaker rents and longer gestation period in our model, slightly offset by the Beijing development and higher occupancy. DPU for FY13/14 remains largely unchanged due to the earn-out funds but RNAV and target price drops by 17%. Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform with lower RNAV-based target price of S$0.57 (discounted by 20%).

Wednesday, October 9, 2013

東益盈利成長可破20%

東益盈利成長可破20%
Created 10/09/2013 - 17:14
(吉隆坡9日訊)東益電子(GTRONIC,7022,主板科技組)在接近感應器和溫度補償晶體振盪器(TCXO)額外盈利的帶動下,盈利動力料持續至第三季,2013至2014財政年每股盈利成長料保持22至25%。

另外,以該公司持續的現金流和低資本開銷需求來看,下半年派息有望提高,2013至2015財政年的派息估計為14仙到20仙,相等於淨週息率5到7%。

東益電子在香港的巡迴展表示,溫度補償晶體振盪器產品產能可能自每月1千萬單位提高到1千500萬單位,該公司也正探討和擴大數領域的產品申請,如汽車和農業,尤其LED或燈零件。

负面已反映 產业股趁低买进

(吉隆坡9日讯)2014財政预算案潜在的打房措施,將可能导致投资者更倾向於卖出產业股。儘管如此,分析员表示当前的產业股或已反映大部份负面因素。

由於美联储没有进行削减经济刺激配套,缓解了资金流出和国债收益率上升的问题。不过,大马的產业领域仍需面对其他的挑战。首先是燃料价格上涨和打击非法外劳造成建筑成本的提高。燃油在9月初起价后,建筑材料成本隨即上升10%。另一方面,全国打击非法外劳的行动,导致劳工短缺问题恶化。这使到一些发展商面临施工进度放缓的问题。

拉昔胡申研究分析员预计,发展商將把成本转移到消费者身上,以缓和赚幅的压力。然而,房屋价格持续走高,人们收入追不上房价的问题將会继续困扰房產领域。

Notion Vtec: There’re benefits to be mined from Alcyone deal -

Notion Vtec: There’re benefits to be mined from Alcyone deal -

KUALA LUMPUR (Oct 9, 2013): Notion VTec Bhd expects to reap the benefits from its A$4.875 million (RM14.7 million) venture into the silver mining business in Australia via loss-making Alcyone Resources Ltd when the latter turns profitable in three months, said Notion executive chairman Thoo Chow Fah.

He said Australian silver producer's present crusher, with a capacity of 700,000 ounces per year, has been overused. A new crusher, made possible with the proceeds from Notion, will be installed to improve the throughput.

OUE Limited: Well positioned for CBD office recovery (OCBC)

OUE Limited:
Fair value S$3.32
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.08
versus: Current price S$2.50

Well positioned for CBD office recovery
• Initiate with BUY and S$3.32 FV
• Possible office REIT listing
• Tailwinds for Core CBD office in FY14

We initiate coverage on OUE with a BUY rating and a fair value estimate of S$3.32. Our fair value applies a relatively less punitive 15% discount to RNAV due to three key reasons. First, the bulk of OUE’s portfolio is positioned in the Core CBD office micro-market

TEE International: Scrip dividend scheme in place (OCBC)

TEE International:
Fair value S$0.38
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.025
versus: Current price S$0.365

Scrip dividend scheme in place
• Scrip dividend scheme applies to FY13 div
• MOU to acquire M&E business in HK
• Unchanged S$0.38 FV

Tee International announced that its scrip dividend scheme will apply to the final tax-exempt (one-tier) dividend of 2.5 S-cents per ordinary share for the financial year ended 31 May 2013.

Sifting Through The Mid-Cap Debris (UOBKH)

Sifting Through The Mid-Cap Debris
The broad-based selldown in mid-caps seems overdone. We highlight opportunities in Halcyon, Courts Asia, Triyards, Yong Nam and Ying Li, which have all fallen more than 20% from their 52-week highs.

What’s New
• Opportunity amid selldown. Mid-cap stocks in Singapore have been heavily sold down in the last few trading days largely due to heightened fears over the collapse in the share prices of heavily-traded stocks, such as Blumont, Asiasons and Liongold. We believe the broad selldown in other non-related mid-cap stocks could present opportunities.

Suntec REIT :Patience Is Bitter, But Its Fruit Is Sweet (MKE)

Suntec REIT
Buy (unchanged)
Share price: SGD1.66
Target price: SGD1.90 (Unchanged)
Patience Is Bitter, But Its Fruit Is Sweet

3Q13 DPU to fare better. The worst distribution drag by Suntec City Mall’s (SCM) ongoing renovation works is likely over in 1H13, when Phase 1 new tenants have yet to start paying rentals and Phase 2 old tenants are being vacated for the AEI. Nonetheless, we noted that many Phase 1 tenants (H&M, Uniqlo, Giant, Breadtalk Café , Hans etc.) have begun operations in Jun-Sep, but they are likely to be still on rentfree periods (1-2 mths). We thus foresee modest rental uplift last quarter and forecast 3Q13 DPU at 2.28 SG-cts (+1.5% QoQ; -2.8% YoY) and FY13 DPU at 9.23 SG-cts. (-2.7% YoY).

Frasers Centrepoint Trust : Gatekeepers of the North (DBSV)

Frasers Centrepoint Trust
BUY S$1.83
STI : 3,136.59
Price Target : 12-Month S$ 2.14 (Prev S$ 2.07)
Gatekeepers of the North

• Strong presence in the growing northern corridor
• Decentralisation is positive for suburban malls
• Acquisition of Changi City Point and possible expansion into Malaysia to drive longer term growth
• BUY for attractive valuations, TP S$2.14

Riverstone : Key Takeaways From Site Visit (UOBKH)


Key Takeaways From Plant Visit
• A well-oiled machine. Riverstone’s manufacturing plants are running at 85% utilisation, with an annual production capacity of 3.1b gloves. As of 1H13, medical gloves made up 70% of total volume while clean-room gloves comprised 30%. Higher-margin clean-room gloves contributed 70% of gross profit in 1H13, which helped push the group’s overall margin to 26.2% (2012: 23.1%). Management sees that growth in the demand for clean-room gloves could come from the IT sector, specifically from tablet and mobile device manufacturers. Hence, it intends to maximise its production of this variant. While an 85% utilisation level is already efficient, management is targeting an optimal rate of 90%.

• Room for growth in premium medical gloves. Riverstone’s relatively smaller size allows it to cater to hospitals’ demand for more specialized gloves. Having built an excellent reputation in the healthcare industry, existing clients are now seeking to place bigger orders for the company’s products, some even as much as 800m gloves a year. Management deems it necessary to expand its capacity aggressively in order to take advantage of such volumes. This will also ensure that it continues to prudently manage customer concentration risk (no single customer takes more than 10% of total capacity).

• 1b new capacity every year from 2014-19. Six phases of 1b capacity each will be built on a 30-acre, 90-year leasehold site in Taiping, Malaysia. Phase 1 is scheduled to be ready by 3Q14. An estimated RM70m-80m of capex has been budgeted for Phase 1 and part of Phase 2. Even with an annual maintenance capex of RM10m, we think Riverstone’s strong cash generation will be able to support its near-term spending needs. Operating cash flow of RM20m in 1H13 pushed the group’s cash balance to over RM90m as at end-June. Its current debtfree position gives it a huge headroom for borrowings later on.

• Consistent 40-50% payout which management intends to maintain even with its capex requirements. The company has sufficient reserves from the exercise of its warrants and is considering alternative financing options. A 2.3 sen interim dividend for 1H13 is payable on 8 Oct 13.


Source/Extract/Excerpts/来源/转贴/摘录: UOBKH-Research,
Publish date: 08/10/13

Tiong Woon Corp - completed the sale of their loss making shipyard in Bintan yesterday (Limtan)

Tiong Woon Corp -
completed the sale of their loss making shipyard in Bintan yesterday

■ Tiong Woon Corp (TWC) has finally completed the sale of their loss making shipyard in Bintan yesterday.

■ This is a very positive development as the shipyard lost close to $3mln last year and was sold for $18mln, reaping them a one-time gain of $2.7mln.

■ TWC’s cash holdings will be increased by 75% from $24mln to $42mln.

曾淵滄專欄 09.10.13:借錢闢財路最高招

黃金周假期後,內地股市開局表現不錯,滬綜指升1.08%,帶動恒指升0.89%。昨日我說過,內地股市對港股的影響越來越大,所以港股可以擺脫前晚美股下跌的壓力而上揚,靠的就是A股。人民銀行昨日再度放水,向銀行體系逆回購650億元票據,這也是A股上升的動力之一,市場炒作三中全會消息再現。

我曾預告和黃(013)紅底在望,昨日就差兩毫便到達目標;希望今天努力再上,打破百元,這是許多年以來首見了。

和黃倘破百元大關,最大的功勞當然是出售資產的消息。很多年前,和黃股價創新高時,就正正是因為出售Orange。

REX INTERNATIONAL: Game Changer For Oil & Gas Exploration

REX INTERNATIONAL: Game Changer For Oil & Gas Exploration
Written by Sim Kih
Sunday, 01 September 2013 13:00

IN THE four weeks since Rex International listed on the Catalist on 31 July, its stock price has surged some 50% above its IPO price of 50 cents.

The business is a one-of-a-kind.

“Oil exploration companies offer high return for high risk.  We, however, offer high return for significantly lower investment risk in oil exploration,” said its chief operating officer Kristofer Skantze during an exclusive interview with NextInsight recently.

Biosensors International : MANAGEMENT REPLY: Can it meet its 15% profit growth forecast - which of the brokers is right?

5/10/2013 – Biosensors International Group disappointed with poor first quarter results but analysts say this is just a temporary lag and the stock has gained around 10% since it announced its Q1 earnings announcement.

The Group's core operations are expected to pick up and an associate starts to contribute.

Already, headwinds in key markets China and Japan have been identified.

These are the company's unaudited Q1FY14 financials on published August 7:

Technics Oil & Gas : Sliding Further Into The Red (DMG)

Technics Oil & Gas
Target Price: SGD0.64
Price: SGD0.83
Sliding Further Into The Red

TGH announced yesterday that it expects to report a loss for 4Q13 and FY13, making this the second consecutive profit warning. With the new compressor-leasing business requiring heavy capital investment, as evidenced by the recent warrants issue, speculators’ hopes of a special dividend from the sale of Nor Offshore Group may be dampened. Maintain SELL with a SGD0.64 TP.

Tuesday, October 8, 2013

柔佛打房首炮!傳外國人置產手續費5%

柔佛打房首炮!傳外國人置產手續費5%
Created 10/08/2013 - 17:30
(吉隆坡8日訊)柔佛州祭出打房首砲,料在明年落實外國人在柔置產的手續費5%,此舉或預示全國打房措施接踵而來,除外國人置產最低限額可能提高到100萬令吉,產業盈利稅和印花稅雙雙調升的幾率也上升。

隨著各種打房措施箭在弦上,近期引發供應過剩疑慮的高檔公寓產,恐淪為最大受害者。

為限制外國人在柔州炒房,柔州政府祭出系列打房措施,包括將在11月召開的州議會提呈外國人置產需支付4至5%的手續費,此舉最早料在今年杪或明年初落實。

打房措施冲击 趁低吸纳基础稳产业股

打房措施冲击 趁低吸纳基础稳产业股
Created 10/08/2013 - 12:07
(吉隆坡7日讯)打房措施传闻料持续传出,产业股面对这些消息时更显脆弱,因此分析员劝促投资者,乘低吸纳基本面强且外国购屋者较少的产业股。

兴业研究分析员指出,未来数周内打房措施传闻料不断,产业股将面对卖压,投资者应该选择基本面强和外国购屋者较少的产业股,因为面对负面消息时冲击较少,首选是IJM置地(IJMLAND,5215,主板产业股)和恒大置地(TAMBUN,5191,主板产业股)。

盈利萎缩油价飙涨 航空业平均回酬负5.4%

盈利萎缩油价飙涨 航空业平均回酬负5.4%
Created 10/08/2013 - 12:19
(吉隆坡7日讯)我国航空领域因盈利萎缩、燃油价格飙涨以及竞争日益剧烈,导致从今年初至今只有5.4%的平均负回酬,远远低于富时隆综指的5.7%正回酬。

尽管如此,马银行投行分析员认为,市场的潜在需求仍相当正面,因今年首8个月的航空交通量按年增长15.5%,堪称亚太区航空交通量第二高的国家,仅次于航空交通量按年上涨16.8%的泰国。

他指出,我国的航空交通量剧增,归功于在今年3月22日加入的马印航空(Malindo Air);该公司迅速增长,现已拥有9架飞机。

M-REIT: Too much retail space? (CIMB)

 Too much retail space?
Although there is an abundance of retail space in the Klang Valley, it has not affected the rental reversions of malls held by the REITs we cover. However, the continued arrival of new malls does suggest a worrying outlook post 2015.

 We retain our Neutral call on the M-REIT sector as the dividend yields of 5.1-5.5% for FY13-14 are not particularly attractive relative to the 3.98% yield for 10-year MGS. Furthermore, given our bullish view on the overall market, we believe that investors will shy away from defensive stocks such as REITs, preferring sectors that offer higher returns such as oil & gas and construction. Our preferred REIT is KLCCP due to the prime location of its assets (Petronas Twin Towers and Suria KLCC) while its property development projects would provide the REIT with key assets in the longer term.

Biosensors International -NRA-SGX Seminar - Healthcare Part (NRA)

Biosensors International
Current Price S$0.94
52-low S$0.82
52-high S$1.42

Background
Biosensors International Group, Ltd., an investment holding company, engages in the research and development, manufacture, assembly, marketing, distribution, and sale of medical devices for interventional cardiology and critical care procedures worldwide. It operates through three segments: Interventional Cardiology, Critical Care, and Licensing Revenue.

Singapore Discovery Series: Tat Hong (CS)

Singapore Discovery Series: Tat Hong
NOT RATED
Management expects regional macro conditions to drive near-term prospects

● We met with management of Tat Hong. Tat Hong mainly focusses on crane rental and distribution in ASEAN, China and Australia. As of June, it operates 677 crawler cranes with a total tonnage of 77,006 tonnes and 65% utilisation rate.

● While management is seeing some demand slowdown in key markets, some one-offs also contributed to the weak results in 1Q14. Australia (46% of revenues) is main source of weakness, but management expects some stabilisation post elections and commencement of some delayed project commitments.

Yangzijiang Shipbuilding: Healthy order flow for replenishment (OCBC)

Yangzijiang Shipbuilding:
Fair value S$1.04
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.04
versus: Current price S$1.14

Healthy order flow for replenishment
• Order book replenishment
• Newbuild prices creeping up
• Seeking sustainability

Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (YZJ) has recently secured 17 contracts worth about US$871m, bringing total orders won YTD to US$2.096b.

Rex International - BUY Initiation For 58% Upside (UOBKH)

Rex International -
Share Price S$0.93
Target Price S$1.47
BUY Initiation For 58% Upside

We initiate coverage on Rex with a BUY and target price of S$1.47. Rex’s most valuable asset is its access to the proprietary Rex Technologies that may significantly improve the odds of a successful oil exploration. A successful oil discovery may see a re-rating of the stock. Results of the first exploration well are expected to be known by 1Q14.

Keppel-REIT : Still relatively cautious (Nomura)

Keppel-REIT
Target price Reduced from 1.23 - SGD 1.21
Closing price September 27, 2013 SGD 1.23
Still relatively cautious

Action: Upgrade to Neutral on valuation but still relatively cautious
KREIT has marginally outperformed the other REITs year to date (-5%, vs. FSTREI’s -5.6%) but our numbers suggest its cost of debt could rise significantly in the long run, especially if the currency mix of assets and debts is matched (4.5% vs. current 2.2%). Assuming the higher cost of debt and all management fees to be paid in cash would shave 2.8pp off FY15F yield, on our estimates. Compared to the long-term average risk free rate of 2.9%, valuation remains unattractive though more fairly valued after the recent correction, in our view, and hence the upgrade to Neutral.

Suntec REIT : Tight margin of safety = fairly priced at best (Nomura)

Suntec REIT
Target price Remains SGD 1.59
Closing price September 27, 2013 SGD 1.68
Tight margin of safety = fairly priced at best

Action: Neutral; fairly priced at best given tight margin of safety
SUN has outperformed the other REITs year to date (+0.3% vs. FSTREI’s -5.6%). That being said, our estimates suggest SUN’s cost of debt could potentially be significantly higher than its current cost (4.2% vs. 2.7%) in the long run. Assuming the higher cost of debt, all management fees paid in cash and no rental support could shave 2.5pp off SUN’s FY15F yield, on our numbers, and the resulting spread of just 0.5pp over the long-term average risk-free rate of 2.9% appears too tight, in our view. All things considered, we believe the stock is now fairly priced at best.

Starhill Global REIT : Positives mostly priced in (Nomura)

Starhill Global REIT
Reduced from 0.83 to SGD 0.77
Closing price September 27, 2013 SGD 0.79
Positives mostly priced in

Action: Neutral; positives mostly priced in
SGREIT has outperformed the other REITs year to date (+0.6% vs. FSTREI’s -5.6%). Our estimates suggests SGREIT offers a reasonable return over the long-term risk -free rate even if we were to assume a longterm cost of debt, but the positives are mostly priced in, in our view.

曾淵滄專欄 08.10.13:樓市變死水有原因

黃金周今日結束,港股後市要看內地休市一星期後走高還是走低。內地股市對香港的影響日益增加,香港近幾年上市的新股,絕大部份是H股,就算不是H股而是本土企業,其生意也集中在中國。

新地(016)劈價賤賣天璽餘貨,但事實上,就算扣除所有優惠,售價依然比當初首推時高,新地在這個樓盤賺得盤滿缽滿。香港豪宅售價在金融海嘯後瘋狂上升,幅度遠比一般樓盤高,也遠遠高於中原城市領先指數的增幅。因此,過去幾年,建豪宅的地產商都發大財。

可是,現在剛剛相反,政府的辣招令內地買家卻步,他們來港買樓要付買家印花稅,再加雙倍印花稅,加起來佔樓價超過三成。因此,地產商要吸引內地買家買豪宅,的確要大劈價才行。

CDL Hospitality Trusts: Upgrade to BUY on valuation grounds (OCBC)

CDL Hospitality Trusts:
Fair value S$1.83
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.10
versus: Current price S$1.63

Upgrade to BUY on valuation grounds
• Slight RevPAR growth for industry in Aug
• Reasonable entry point
• Upgrade to BUY

Based on STB figures, we estimate that Hotel RevPAR saw a mild growth of 2% YoY to S$232 in Aug. This compares favorably to the overall YoY decline for Jan to Aug of 1.9%. With generally positive sentiment from hoteliers about Sep, we could see stabilization in the sector.

Cambridge Industrial Trust : Growth expected to slow (CIMB)

Cambridge Industrial Trust
Current S$0.68
Target S$0.74
Growth expected to slow
NEUTRAL - Downgrade

▊ We caught up with Cambridge Industrial Trust’s (CIT) management recently. During the meeting, it was highlighted that given current market conditions and policies implemented by the government, the acquisition market looks less sanguine than before. Future growth is expected to be attributed from AEIs in 2014. With a more challenging acquisition market, we expect CIT to grow at a slower pace in 2014. We have lowered our capex assumption for FY14 to S$85m from S$150m previously. Consequently, we have reduced FY14/15 DPUs by about 6.8% on average. Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform with lower DDM-based target price of S$0.74.

Monday, October 7, 2013

大馬散裝貨運盈利唱淡

大馬散裝貨運盈利唱淡
Created 10/07/2013 - 17:33
(吉隆坡7日訊)儘管海岬型船(Capesize vessels)租金近期強勢上升,惟興業研究估計大馬散裝貨運(MAYBULK,5077,主板貿服組)未染指有關船艦類型,未來盈利或繼續令人失望,下調股票評級至“賣出”。

興業表示,波羅海乾散貨指數(BDI)9月份至今暴漲86%至2127點,刷新21個月新高,關鍵原因在於中國鐵苗進口活動升溫帶動海岬型船租金反彈。

“我們預計海岬型船每日租金持穩於3萬5千美元,已敲定租約交易也創下2010年至今新高,顯示現有需求可能延續,儘管船運業可能從11月開始進入年杪低潮期,可預計不會太過嚴重。”

兩大利空夾攻‧金獅工業遭低估

兩大利空夾攻‧金獅工業遭低估
Created 10/07/2013 - 17:32
(吉隆坡7日訊)金獅工業(LIONIND,4235,主板工業產品組)近期受鋼鐵業疲弱和姊妹公司賬項兩大利空夾攻而走低,大眾研究指出,鋼鐵前景雖仍疲弱,但該股跌至頗具吸引力水平,為有意長期持股的投資者提供良機。

大眾研究指出,捷運計劃與2020年之1千200億令吉鐵軌計劃有助拉抬鋼鐵需求,提振該公司業務。

金獅工業擁有鋼鐵、產業與投資業務,生產的鋼鐵產品作為建築、鑄造與製造業用途。至於產業發展包括在威省峇央峇魯、馬六申瑪琳再也、峇都巴轄等地推出計劃,也投資於73%持股的金獅林業(LIONFIB,8486,主板消費品組)、21%持股的金獅多元控股(LIONDIV,2887,主板工業產品組)和17%持股的百盛(PARKSON,5657,主板貿服組)。

SPH REIT : Still fairly priced commercial paragon at best (Nomura)

SPH REIT
Target price Remains SGD 0.94
Closing price September 27, 2013 SGD 0.98
Still fairly priced commercial paragon at best

Action: Neutral; still a fairly priced commercial paragon at best
SPHREIT has outperformed the other REITs since its listing on 24 July (- 1% vs. FSTREI’s -4%). Notwithstanding the short listing history, we suspect the current cost of debt of c.2.4% is unlikely to be sustainable in the long run. Assuming a higher cost of debt of 4%, all management fees to be paid in cash and no rental support would shave 1.4pp off SPHREIT’s FY15F yield, on our numbers. Relative to the long-term average risk-free rate of 2.9%, the potential return therefore appears to be tight if the shortterm distribution boosts were to be removed. As such, while we like the Paragon asset, it remains our view that the stock is fairly priced at best.

CapitaCommercial Trust : Reasonable return, decent growth, fair value (Nomura)

CapitaCommercial Trust
Target price Increased from 1.46 - SGD 1.48
Closing price September 27, 2013 SGD 1.48
Reasonable return, decent growth, fair value

Action: Neutral; reasonable return, decent growth but fair value
CCT has underperformed the other REITs year to date (-12.2%, vs. FSTREI’s -5.6%). Our “true” yield analysis suggests CCT offers a reasonable return over the long term risk-free rate even if we were to remove all short-term distribution boosts (“true” yield spread 2.1pp, vs. trough spread 1.4pp). Projected DPU growth profile is decent (3-year CAGR = 3%) with one of the strongest balance sheets in the sector (gearing = 0.29x as of end-June). That being said, the current valuation appears to have already priced in most of the positives, in our view.

CDL Hospitality Trusts : Value is emerging (Nomura)

CDL Hospitality Trusts
Target price Reduced from 1.95 - SGD 1.74
Closing price September 27, 2013 SGD 1.62
Value is emerging

Action: Upgrade to Neutral; value is emerging
CDREIT has underperformed the other REITs year to date (-13.8% vs. FSTREI’s -5.6%) and we believe value is emerging. Our estimates suggest CDREIT offers a reasonable return over the long-term risk-free rate even if we were to assume long-term cost of debt and all management fees to be paid in cash. Its balance sheet is also relatively lowly geared at 0.3x as of end-June. Upgrade to Neutral on valuation.

CapitaMall Trust : Yield least distorted by short-term boosts (Nomura)

CapitaMall Trust
Target price Increased from 2.00 -SGD 2.24
Closing price September 27, 2013 SGD 1.98
Yield least distorted by short-term boosts

Action: U/G to Buy; yield least distorted by short-term boosts
CMT has underperformed the other REITs year to date (-7% vs. FSTREI’s -5.6%). Our estimates suggest any potential rise in CT’s cost of debt in the long run is likely to be the most limited among the REITs we cover (3.8% vs the current 3.4%), and as the market starts to appreciate this, we think CMT’s year to date underperformance could reverse. Upgrade to Buy.

Ascendas REIT : Outperformance could continue (Nomura)

Ascendas REIT
Outperformance could continue
Target price Increased from 2.47 SGD 2.61
Closing price September 27, 2013 SGD 2.34

Action: Upgrading to Buy; outperformance could continue
AREIT has outperformed the other REITs year to date (-1.3%, vs. FSTREI’s -5.6%), and we think the outperformance could continue considering its relatively defensive yield, decent growth profile and strong balance sheet. We upgrade our rating to Buy.

Singapore REITs : What are the “true” yields? (Nomura)

Singapore REITs : What are the “true” yields?

Upgrade AREIT, CT to BUY; still relatively cautious on KREIT
October 2, 2013
Action: Removing short-term boosts, what are the “true” yields?
Rather than focusing too much on what the Fed is or isn’t going to do, we believe the key question is what are the potential yields in the long run if we were to assume: 1) a long-term cost of debt (adjusted for a matched currency mix of assets and debts); 2) all management fees are paid in cash; and 3) no rental support – ie, the “true” yields?

Cordlife: Attractive to private investors

Cordlife Group Ltd:
LAST CLOSE: S$1.285
FAIR VALUE: S$1.35 (adjusted)
Attractive to private investors

Proposed private placement raising up to $33.5 gross proceeds. Cordlife Group (CLGL) announced the proposed private placement of up to 26.8m new shares at an indicative price of $1.25 for each placement share. In total, the Group expects to raise net proceeds of $32.1m (or gross proceeds of $33.5m). The share placement will be carried out via a private placement of up to 17.8m shares and a direct subscription from five investors of up to 9.0m shares. The issue price of $1.25 represents a 3% discount from the last close price of $1.285 as at 2 October 2013.

曾淵滄專欄 07.10.13:投資最忌盲目跟風

上周末受邀到新加坡參加一個投資講座,期間到馬六甲旅遊,我已經20年沒有到過馬六甲,20年過去,馬六甲基本上沒變,旅客比以前多,是來自中國的旅客,由新加坡最西部過橋到柔佛,然後直上高速公路,車走近三小時,兩旁見不到房屋,只有綿綿不絕的棕櫚園。

人人爭住買要小心
近來,不少新加坡人熱衷於投資馬來西亞的房地產,投資講座期間,許多人都問我相關的問題,但是,當我見到由新加坡對岸的柔佛直到馬六甲的路上,景觀竟然20年不變,可見馬來西亞經濟發展速度的緩慢。近幾年,新加坡房地產價格猛漲,銀行利率太低,不少人持有一些現金不知道該投資甚麼,於是多家新加坡的房地產商就到新加坡的對岸開發房地產樓盤,然後在新加坡搞促銷,吸引了一群群新加坡人搶着投資,20年前,不少香港人也是如此搶着到深圳、樟木頭,惠州投資房地產而虧了錢,可幸,20年過後的今天,深圳房地產市場終於起飛。

Global Premium Hotel : King of Budget Hotels (DBSV)

Global Premium Hotel
NOT RATED S$0.25
STI: 3,181.50
Price Target : 12-Month S$0.33
King of Budget Hotels

• Leading provider of budgethotels in Singapore
• Strong branding among travelers with its “Fragrance” and “Parc Sovereign” hotels.
• FV of S$0.29

Household name in the budget hotel space. Global Premium Hotels (GPHL) operates one of Singapore’s largest economy /mid-tier hotel chains under the “Fragrance” brand and one hotel under the “Parc Sovereign” brand with a total room count of 1,738.

Tiger Airways : Transformation in progress (DBSV)

Tiger Airways Holdings
BUY S$0.56 STI : 3,181.50
Price Target : 12-Month S$ 0.74
Transformation in progress

• Better operating quarters ahead as the Group is working on a clean slate following partial sale of Tigerair Australia to Virgin Australia
• Uniquely positioned with a dual base in Indonesia and Singapore to grow from the booming Singapore – Indonesia routes
• Maintain BUY with TP of S$0.74

Yangzijiang : Wary of a False Dawn (MKE)

Yangzijiang Shipbuilding
Sell (from Hold)
Share price: SGD1.135
Target price: SGD0.98 (from SGD0.93)
Wary of a False Dawn

Sector recovery not convincing. There recent surge in BDI has fuelled rising anticipation for a recovery in the shipping market, and expectations for a return in shipbuilding orders. We do not see a broadbased recovery for Chinese shipbuilders yet as (1) rise in BDI was led mainly by rate hikes for capesize vessels, (2) container freight rates remain weak, and (3) yard overcapacity issue lingers. We fear that YZJ’s recent rise in share price may meet with downward pressure when shipping market recovery story disappoints. Downgrade to Sell, SOTP-based TP at SGD0.98.

Sunday, October 6, 2013

泰国富商 苏旭明(Charoen Sirivadhanabhakdi) 明确掌握市场 成为亚洲啤酒王

泰国富商 苏旭明(Charoen Sirivadhanabhakdi) 明确掌握市场 成为亚洲啤酒王

苏旭明(Charoen Sirivadhanabhakdi),他出生于泰国,祖籍中国广东汕头市,是典型的泰籍华裔富商,是目前泰国的酿酒业巨子。他小时候的家境并不佳,但他勤奋好学,聪明机敏。为了家计,10多岁他便开始打工。不久,当他打工积累了一点钱之后,便决定自己创业。他通过选择把经营酿酒业做为终身的事业。经过几十年的奋斗。苏旭明已拥有了Sura Makeras和 Sura Thrp两家泰国最大的酿酒厂及集团。

How to Value A Company

In this article, we will answer a Foolish question asked by one of our readers. He asked the following (edited slightly): “How do we go about determining the value of a stock and that it is not overvalued now?”

There are a number of ways to value a company. Let’s take a look at three of them (in no particular order).

The first method would be the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio. The PE ratio is obtained by dividing the current stock price by the earnings per share (EPS) of the company. For example, the EPS of Singapore Exchange Limited (SGX: S68) for Financial Year 2013 was $0.314. The share price, at the time of writing, is $7.63. Therefore, $7.63 divided by $0.314 gives a PE ratio of 24.3. The PE ratio can be used for service and manufacturing companies. To determine if the company is overvalued or undervalued, the PE ratio can be compared across the industry. If the PE ratio of  Breadtalk (SGX: 5DA) is higher than its peers in the Food & Beverage industry for instance, it may be deemed to be overvalued and vice versa.

AirAsia : Keener competition at home (DBSV)

AirAsia
HOLD RM2.60
KLCI : 1,769.03
Price Target : 12-month RM 2.90
Keener competition at home

• Strong passenger growth in Indonesia
• Competition driving yields lower
• Maintain HOLD rating and RM2.90 TP

Indonesian growth. AirAsia Indonesia‘s revenue grew 42% y-o-y to IDR1,398.2b in 2Q13 on the back of 33% passenger growth.

Malaysian Airlines : Yields drop amid intense competition (DBSV)

Malaysian Airlines
FULLY VALUED RM0.345
KLCI :1,769.03
Price Target : 12 month RM 0.30
Yields drop amid intense competition

• Competition is driving yields lower
• Oneworld Alliance lifts passenger numbers
• Maintain Fully Valued rating with RM0.30 TP

Yields under pressure. Intense competition from regional and domestic carriers has reduced yields to 22.1 sen/RPK (-9% q-o-q) in 2Q13. MAS managed to reduce Cost/ASK by 1.5 sen or -6% y-o-y to 23.7 sen, mainly due to lower staff costs of RM553m (-5% y-o-y) and lower leasing and maintenance costs of RM592m (- 4% y-o-y). This was offset by higher handling and landing costs of RM364m (+47% y-o-y) and higher fuel costs RM1,389m (+9% y-o-y) as a result of increased aircraft utilization and use of larger aircraft.

Kevin Scully @ S'pore Conference Hall



Aviation The Kitchen Is Hot (MKE)

Aviation
Neutral (unchanged)
The Kitchen Is Hot

 HOLD on fair valuation. The Malaysia aviation sector’s average return of -5.4% YTD has underperformed KLCI’s return of +5.7%, due to depressed earnings, surging fuel prices and heightened competitive pressures. The underlying demand remains positive, as seen by the healthy traffic growth of 15.5% YoY in 8M13 but this was spurred by lower average fare. The yield outlook remains weak and the fuel price is on an uptrend. We however maintain our Neutral stance on the sector as we feel the valuations aptly manifest the current market situation.

iPhone 5c銷情差 美零售商劈價

iPhone 5c銷情差 美零售商劈價
膠殼乏人問津先達九折收機
2013年10月6日
【明報專訊】蘋果新推出的iPhone 5s金色版,因為金閃閃的顏色配搭深受內地客鍾情,加上供貨量又少,上市以來炒價高企,16GB版本初現之際回收價達萬元以上。不過,蘋果同時推出、原本用作主打中低端市場的iPhone 5c,因為淨機價格高昂,市場反應一直麻麻。但美國當地的零售商已展開大型減價促銷活動,連兩年合約的上台價最低僅45美元、349港元,對比蘋果美國官網標價99美元,大幅劈價55%。

CSC Steel - Bleak Outlook; But Attractive Valuation

CSC Steel - Bleak Outlook; But Attractive Valuation
Publish date: Thu, 3 Oct 09:40

Highlights
Operating environment remains challenging. Management guided that operating environment of the flat steel product segment (in particularly the cold-rolled product sub-segment) remains challenging, on the back of: (1) The import restriction on hot-rolled coil (HRC, the feedstock), which requires industry players (including CSC Steel) to source at least 50% of its required feedstock locally (which is often priced higher than the international market); (2) Volatile international steel prices (which in turn are driven by excess capacity in the region); and (3) US$ appreciation (CSC Steel is a net US$ payer due to the feedstock importation).
Warren E. Buffett(沃伦•巴菲特)
Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful
别人贪婪时我恐惧, 别人恐惧时我贪婪
投资只需学好两门课: 一,是如何给企业估值,二,是如何看待股市波动
吉姆·罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)
“错过时机”胜于“搞错对象”:不会全军覆没!”
做自己熟悉的事,等到发现大好机会才投钱下去

乔治·索罗斯(George Soros)

“犯错误并没有什么好羞耻的,只有知错不改才是耻辱。”

如果操作过量,即使对市场判断正确,仍会一败涂地。

李驰(中国巴菲特)
高估期间, 卖对, 不卖也对, 买是错的。
低估期间, 买对, 不买也是对, 卖是错的。

Tan Teng Boo


There’s no such thing as defensive stocks.Every stock can be defensive depending on what price you pay for it and what value you get,
冷眼(冯时能)投资概念
“买股票就是买公司的股份,买股份就是与陌生人合股做生意”。
合股做生意,则公司股份的业绩高于一切,而股票的价值决定于盈利。
价值是本,价格是末,故公司比股市重要百倍。
曹仁超-香港股神/港股明灯
1.有智慧,不如趁势
2.止损不止盈
成功者所以成功,是因为不怕失败!失败者所以失败,是失败后不再尝试!
曾淵滄-散户明灯
每逢灾难就是机会,而是在灾难发生时贱价买股票,然后放在一边,耐性地等灾难结束
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