Saturday, October 5, 2013

大马散装货运 干散货航运供过于求

大马散装货运 干散货航运供过于求
Created 10/04/2013 - 12:29
目标价:1.70令吉

最新进展

从9月份起,波罗的海干散货运价指数(Baltic Dry Index)飙升86%至2127点,创下21个月新高。

这主要是中国重新进货铁矿石,刺激铁矿石入口大增(按年涨27%,从今年初至今扬16%),大大推高了海岬型船费所致。

同时,铁矿石价格稳定,在短期内吸纳供应过剩的铁矿石现货。

SGX Suspends Blumont, Liongold, Asiasons as Stocks Plunge

SGX Suspends Blumont, Liongold, Asiasons as Stocks Plunge

Singapore Exchange Ltd. (SGX), Southeast Asia’s biggest bourse operator, suspended the trading of Blumont (BLUM) Group Ltd., LionGold Corp. and Asiasons Capital Ltd. (ACAP) after shares of the commodity investors plunged.

Blumont, which invests in minerals and energy, tumbled 56 percent to 88 Singapore cents before trading was halted. It was the second-biggest decliner on the FTSE ST All-Share Index. (FSTAS) The company said the share losses prompted the termination of a deal to buy Australian coal producer Cokal Ltd.

罗杰斯称一个更大的灾难即将来临

罗杰斯称一个更大的灾难即将来临
来源:腾讯财经 2013-10-4

北京时间10月4日凌晨消息,量子基金联合创始人、著名投资人吉姆-罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)周四表示,“美国是世界历史上最大的债务国家,我们股市可能有非常非常大的涨幅,但是这不是基于现实的。我想提醒投资者们,你们应该知道自己是在一个傻瓜的天堂里,请千万小心,当大家都在高唱赞歌的时候,请记住,‘我见过这个场面的,我知道现在是时候跑路了’。”

吉姆-罗杰斯是在新加坡接受CNBC的电话访问时提出这个意见的。他认为,由于美联储的量化宽松项目以及在全世界范围泛滥的类似的经济刺激项目,美国股市遇到破坏性的麻烦只是个时间问题。他说,“首先,在整个美国历史上,我们总是每隔四年到六年就会放缓。这也就是说,未来两年内——最多三年,我们就会再次遇到麻烦了,不管是什么样的原因。”

郭鹤年通过 丰益国际(Wilmar International)发展油棕业

马来西亚首富郭鹤年业务遍布世界各地,他所从事的行业包括船务业、种植业、制造业、酒店业、影视业、零售业以及其他行业等,而种植业他则是通过他的旗舰公司--PPB集团(PPB Group)去落实。

由于PPB集团拥有丰益国际有限公司(Wilmar International Ltd)的股权,而后者又是油棕园种植面积世界第三大的种植公司,所以PPB集团也间接成为世界其中一家举足轻重的种植公司。

丰益国际是大马首富郭鹤年及其侄儿郭孔丰与印尼油棕王吴笙服(Martua Sitorus)联合创立于1991年,总部设在新加坡,如今已成为顶尖的农业公司。该公司是新加坡股票交易所之中市值最大的上市公司之一。

上市筹资扩展业务 亚航X(AirAsiaX)期希飞得更高

继亚洲航空(AirAsia)之后,马来西亚的另一家廉价航空--亚洲航空X(AirAsiaX)也将在马来西亚股票交易所上市。

亚航与亚航X是属于联号公司关系,亚航目前持有亚航X的183%,上市后将降至13.7%。它们同属从事廉价航空业务,不同的是亚航航班飞行时长不超过4小时。亚航使用的飞机只有一个机舱等级和机位配置。亚航运营的飞机为空客A320,可乘坐180名乘客。

亚航X运营的航班飞行时长则超过4小时,即长途飞行。亚航X使用的飞机只有一个机舱等级,但是设有豪华舱座位和经济舱座位两种不同的座位类型。亚航X运营的飞机为空客A330,可乘坐377名乘客。

YTL Power : Yield compression (DBSV)

YTL Power
HOLD RM1.78
KLCI: 1,801.83
Price Target: 12-Month RM1.70
Yield compression

•Dividend cut to conserve cash for acquisition
•New acquisitions are crucial to cushion against earnings drop after expiry of Malaysian PPAs in 2015
•Maintain HOLD with TP of RM1.70

More challenging outlook. Operating outlook for YTLP will be more challenging over the next few years, due to rising capacity in Singapore’s electricity market that will eventually pressure margins and sales volumes. The lingering European crisis could also limit returns from Wessex upon the expiry of the current regulatory regime in 2015.

IOI Corporation: Launching MGO for Unico-Desa (MKE)

IOI Corporation
Hold (unchanged)
Share price: MYR5.39
Target price: MYR5.42 (unchanged)
Launching MGO for Unico-Desa

Neutral deal. IOI’s acquisition of a 39.55% stake in listed plantation group, Unico-Desa Plantations Bhd (UDP MK, MYR1.18, Not Rated) has triggered a MGO at MYR1.17/sh. We are Neutral on the pricing; at an implied MYR80,000 EV/planted ha, this is on par with the recent MYR76,600/ha price tag paid by Boustead (BOUS MK, NR) but above Felda Global’s (FGV MK; HOLD) acquisition of Pontian at MYR63,750/ ha. We expect muted short-term earnings enhancement to IOI (after borrowing costs) and maintain our earnings forecasts for now. Maintain HOLD with an unchanged TP of RM5.42 based on 19x 2014 PER.

Malaysian Bulk - Riding On High Waves?

Malaysian Bulk -
Price Target:1.70
Last Price:1.84
Riding On High Waves?

The Baltic Dry Bulk Index has  recently  surged due to  a  significant rise in Chinese iron ore imports. We do not expect sharp seasonal drops in shipping rates as  aggressive spot prices  have been locked in through forward freight agreements (FFAs). Moreover,  the gap between demand and  supply  is  narrowing.  Nonetheless,  we  are  downgrading  MBC  to SELL as its earnings are still expected to disappoint.

Khazanah denies eyeing 20% of Inari Amertron

Khazanah denies eyeing 20% of Inari Amertron
KUALA LUMPUR: Khazanah Nasional Bhd has denied it is looking at a 20% stake in Inari Amertron Bhd.

“The news report attributed to a stockbroker report on Khazanah taking a 20% stake in Inari Amertron in exchange for a stake in Silterra (M) Sdn Bhd is false and baseless,” a spokesperson for the sovereign fund said.

Inari Amertron vice-chairman Dr Tan Seng Chuan, however, declined to comment on the report at a press conference after its EGM, saying only the management had not been “approached by anyone from Khazanah”.

MPHB Capital : Insurance Company For Free, Anyone? (MKE)

MPHB Capital
Buy (new)
Share price: MYR1.51
Target price: MYR2.12 (new)
Insurance Company For Free, Anyone?

 40% upside, initiate with BUY. What MPHB Capital (MPHB Cap) provides exposure to is a profitable general insurance company with ROEs of 14-16% and 2,727 acres of land bank/properties where the full value has yet to be realized. The properties alone are valued at MYR1.30 per MPHB Cap share, MYR1.57 if we revise up the valuations for its Balik Pulau land, which implies that at MPHB Cap’s current share price of MYR1.51, investors are getting the general insurance for free. Our SOP value of MYR2.12 per share offers 40% upside and we initiate coverage with a BUY rating.

Leading malls expected to enjoy rental growth

Leading malls expected to enjoy rental growth

SUNWAY REIT Management Sdn Bhd CEO Datuk Jeffrey Ng Tiong Lip says the company will remain focused on retail with at least 60% retail exposure as measured by asset size, revenue or net property income (NPI) over the long term. The company manages Sunway REIT.

Ng says they are mindful of the market cycle and impending oversupply of retail space.

Tune Ins - Ahead Of Target

Tune Ins -
Price Target:2.40
Last Price:2.04
Ahead Of Target

Our  Strong  BUY  and  MYR2.40  FV  (22.0x  FY14F  EPS)  on  TIH  are premised  on:  i)  widening  travel  insurance  margins,  ii)  market expansion,  iii)  turnaround  of  its  general  insurance  subsidiary,  and  iv) tie-ups with more  airlines  and  online  providers. We  continue  to  like  its travel  business,  which  is  racing  ahead  of  its  minimum  20.0%  growth target, and the industry’s 10.0-15.0% growth expectations.

Instacom Group - Moving Up The Ranks

Instacom Group -
Price Target:0.51
Last Price:0.295
Moving Up The Ranks

We  initiate  coverage  on  Instacom  with  a  BUY  recommendation  and  FV of  MYR0.51.  The  company  is  a  major  beneficiary  of  the  rollout  of  LTE networks  and  USP  projects  in  East  Malaysia,  backed  by  a  decent orderbook  of  MYR300m.  Earnings  growth  is  likely  to  see  a  new  leg  up with the company venturing into the telco infra lease business. We like Instacom for its good earnings prospects and undemanding valuations.

曾渊沧@股友通讯录 2013 年09 月份

各位朋友
海峡时报指数在今年8 月底跌至2013 年的谷底之后回升,但是仍然无法超越7 月份的水平。9 月份的回升,很大的原因是投资者已开始消化了美国联邦储备局退市的忧虑。

一般投资者都认为就算退市,也是温和的退市,暂时只会减购买债券的金额,不会加息。

到了9 月18 日,美国联储局正式开会,结果是出乎意料地什么也都没做,没有退市,不减买债金额,不加息,可是美股只兴奋了一天就回跌。

Growth with Continued Monetary Accomodation



Friday, October 4, 2013

全利資源年省利息900萬

全利資源年省利息900萬
Created 10/04/2013 - 17:13
(吉隆坡4日訊)全利資源(QL,7084,主板消費品組)派發紅股及發售附加股,分析員不感意外,並普遍看好附加股計劃降低債,節省利息,因而上調財測,建議股東認購附加股,因發售價比市場取得大幅度折價優惠。

股價走高

受紅股計劃激勵,該公司股價今日走高,一度揚升18仙或0.48%至3令吉87仙,收市掛3令吉81仙,漲12仙。

国内商机庞大表现超越预期 Tune保险盈利看涨30%

国内商机庞大表现超越预期 Tune保险盈利看涨30%
Created 10/03/2013 - 12:19
(吉隆坡2日讯)大马旅游保险市场的投保率属低,且增速却较其他亚太市场来得高,而专注于此网络利基市场的Tune保险(TUNEINS,5230,主板金融股)表现已经超越内部和业界预期,获分析员列为“增长股”。

兴业投资研究在报告中预计,Tune保险未来两年的每股盈利增长将达29至30%,把业界5至17.1%的增长预估远远抛在后头。

BDI持续造好 内地航运业近喜远忧

BDI持续造好 内地航运业近喜远忧
http://paper.wenweipo.com   [2013-10-04]    
比富达证券(香港)业务部副总经理 林振辉
 过去几个月,波罗的海干散货运价指数(Baltic Dry Index, BDI)持续造好,由七月份的1,000点左右大升逾1倍至9月底的2,003点。BDI指数由位于伦敦的波罗的海航交所发布,是衡量国际海运情况,反映国际间贸易的领先指数,同时也是航运业最主要的经济指标。尽管现时BDI指数处于两年来高位,总体上却仍在低谷徘徊。笔者认为,内地航运业短期也会跟随造好,但仍难言长期复苏。

陶冬警告港樓價或跌20%

【本報訊】早於去年9月透露已出售所持本港物業的瑞信亞洲(除日本外)首席經濟師陶冬,再為本港樓市指點迷津,揚言於未來12至18個月,香港房地產市將進入第二階段調整,樓價會顯著下滑,「跌15至20%也有可能」。

陶冬形容本港樓市正處於第一階段調整期,「量跌價不跌」;但一旦兩項外圍因素爆破,將觸發本港樓市進入第二階段調整期「量價齊跌」。其一是明年下半年或以後,市場對美國聯儲局退市加息預期,將引發本港的按揭利率大幅飈升100個點子,屆時供樓人士將會增加12%按揭貸款成本。另一個原因同樣是明年下半年,內地的地方政府還債出現問題,中國信貸收縮,香港資金流出,誘發另一導火線。

证券推介:BDI倍升 首选太平洋航运

证券推介:BDI倍升 首选太平洋航运
http://paper.wenweipo.com   [2013-10-04]

比富达证券(香港)
 过去三个月,波罗的海干散货运价指数(Baltic Dry Index, BDI)大幅上涨,由七月份的1,000点左右大升1倍至10月初的2,000点左右。BDI指数是航运业最主要的经济指标,指数大升说明国际贸易开始活跃,对航运需求上升。BDI指数主要是衡量干散货运输情况,而干散货运输主要是包括铁矿石、煤炭、粮食和水泥等上游初级产品的运输。本周笔者推介太平洋航运(2343),因受周期性旺季及内地经济复苏推动,公司下半年业务将明显转好,另外公司在业内竞争力强,加上估值较低,值得买入。

UOB: Khazanah to take 20pc stake in Inari

UOB: Khazanah to take 20pc stake in Inari
By Francis Fernandez
bt@mediaprima.com.my
2013/10/04

KUALA LUMPUR: Khazanah Nasional Bhd is poised to take a 20 per cent stake in Inari Amertron Bhd, Singapore-based UOB Kay Hian said in a private report to its tier one clients.
“The deal would see Inari placing out a 20 per cent stake to Khazanah in exchange for a stake in SilTerra Malaysia Sdn Bhd, a wafer fabrication facility that is 98 per cent owned by Khazanah,” UOB said in the report.

The report came a few days after Affin Research revised its target price for Inari from RM1.11 to RM1.70.

Amtek : Revenues closer to bottom, signs of demand recovery in many segments (CS)

Amtek Engineering Ltd.
Price (02 Oct 13 , S$) 0.47
TP (prev. TP S$) 0.56 (0.56)
Revenues closer to bottom, signs of demand recovery in many segments

● We hosted Ms. Sheila Ng (CFO and Deputy CEO) and Ms. Jocelin Soon (Deputy CFO) for lunch with investors.

● Management is keen to achieve a reversal in the revenue decline seen over the past two financial years which was driven by sustained weakness in end-demand in both the consumer and enterprise segments. The automation and cost saving initiatives implemented over the past couple of years should provide the additional boost to the bottom line when revenue growth returns.

Halcyon Agri Corp - Key Takeaways From Non Deal Roadshow (UOBKH)

Halcyon Agri Corp -
Share Price S$0.755
Target Price S$1.00
Key Takeaways From Non Deal Roadshow

Halcyon Agri Corp will reach its optimal midstream capacity by 2015 upon completion of its asset enhancements and recent M&As. It has taken its first step towards upstream expansion as part of its long-term story. Excellent execution of risk management model; encouraging CSR initiatives. Maintain BUY and target price of S$1.00.

Yangzijiang Shipbuilding : Moving up the value chain (CIMB)

Yangzijiang Shipbuilding
Current S$1.10
Target S$1.25
Moving up the value chain

 YZJ is competing head-to-head with the Korean shipyards with its maiden capesize bulk carriers (208,000DWT) and large-sized containerships (10,000TEU) in the latest slew of orders worth US$871m.

The 10,000TEU containerships are likely to be options exercised by Seaspan (estimated at US$85m-90m/vessel), while the customer for the four capesize bulk carriers has not been disclosed. YTD order wins reached US$2.1bn, which is in line with our US$2.5bn target. Maintain Outperform with a target price still based on 1.4x CY13 P/BV, 1 s.d. below its 5-year mean. More shipbuilding orders are catalysts.

XMH : Turbocharged engines of growth (NRA)

XMH Holdings.
Current Price S$0.41
Fair Value S$0.49
Turbocharged engines of growth

 Earnings below expectations. 1Q14 net profit of S$2.7m was 9% below our expectations, mainly due to lower-than-expected revenues from its distribution business segment.

 Maintain forecasts and fair value. Despite earnings just slightly below our forecasts, we believe the group should be able to make up for it in the next few quarters with its strong order book of S$70m as at 1Q14. Newly acquired Mech-Power Generator Group (MPG) will begin contributing meaningfully from 3Q14. We maintain our fair value at 49 cts, pegged to 12x FY14 PER. Potential catalyst could include another acquisition to widen its production range. We continue to like the group's stable cash generating business and consistent dividend pay-out. We maintain our Overweight recommendation.

曾淵滄專欄 04.10.13:利息低企窮人難捱

特區政府終於正式推出官方貧窮線,以家庭收入中位數為劃線方法,也許是因為技術上不可行,貧窮線只考慮工作收入,不考慮資產。

因此,李嘉誠很可能被計算為香港的窮人之一,他的工作收入很低,股息收入不報稅,政府也不知道他的股息收入有多少。香港許多退休老人,不論其身家多雄厚,只要他沒工作,都將列入貧窮線之下的窮人,等待政府的救濟。

不過,今日退休老人的生活的確是很困苦,理由是銀行利率太低,千萬現金存入銀行收息,過的生活可能與領綜援差不多,若是存入儲蓄戶口則更糟,是真正的窮人。

Wilmar International: Coming Up Roses (MKE)

Wilmar International
Buy (unchanged)
Share price: SGD3.19
Target price: SGD4.52 (from SGD4.60)
Coming Up Roses

 Discount looks overdone, reiterate BUY. We continue to like Wilmar for its fully-integrated and well-diversified agri-business model, dominant global market positions in palm oil plantation/processing and soybean crushing, as well as its foothold in China and India, two of the most important consumer markets in the world. We see three key catalysts for the stock: (1) margin stabilisation in the Oilseeds & Grains (O&G) division, (2) low CPO price environment, and (3) structural improvement to group ROA on rationalised asset allocation. We thus argue that the stock’s current deep valuation discount to its historical mean is too excessive and reiterate our BUY call with a target price SGD4.52, implying 42% upside from the current levels.

Hi-P International : Uncertainty rising (DBSV)

Hi-P International
HOLD S$0.76
STI : 3,181.50
(Downgrade from BUY)
Price Target : 12-month S$ 0.65 (Prev S$ 0.97)
Uncertainty rising

• Customer demand falling short on weaker than expected reception to 5C iPhones and rising stockpiles
• Expect 3Q to be on track but momentum likely to fizzle out, thus weakening the outlook for 4Q and even FY14
• Downgrade to Hold, TP cut to S$0.65

Pan United : Earnings driver from one of China’s top ten ports (UOBKH)

Pan United
Share Price S$0.90
Target Price S$1.25
Earnings driver from one of China’s top ten ports

Valuation/Recommendation
• Maintain BUY and target price of S$1.25.
• We met with management recently to get an update on their plans for Changshu Xinghua Port (CXP) after completing the acquisition of an additional stake in the port.

Thursday, October 3, 2013

全利资源红股附加股齐出笼

(吉隆坡3日讯)全利资源(QL,7084,主板消费股)建议以每10股送3红股方式,发出2亿4960万5886股红股。

同时,建议以10股配2附加股,发出1亿6640万3924股附加股。

管理层仍未確定附加股的发售价,惟给予的指標发售价则为1.80令吉。

根据该公司的预测,在最低认购率下全利资源將可筹得1亿7323万令吉,而若所有股东全数认购,则可筹得2亿9953万令吉。

所筹得资金將用来偿还银行贷款、资本开支、营运资金及支付此活动的费用。

价格合理协同效应 IOI收购案长期获利

(吉隆坡3日讯)IOI集团(IOICorp,1961,主板种植股)以3亿9363万令吉收购商联种植(Unico,5019,主板种植股)39.55%股权,並將展开全面献购的建议,预计將提高前者的种植地库,但是,市场人士普遍认为这项收购短期內不会带来显著的盈利贡献。

市场人士普遍认为,这项收购价格合理,不会显著的提高IOI集团的负债率,同时,也將带来协同效应,但是,在棕油价格下滑的趋势中,这项收购短期內可带来的盈利贡献不大。

两家公司股价今日双双下跌,闭市时,IOI集团跌2仙,至5.37令吉;商联种植也跌2仙,至1.16令吉。

恒地買愛股 四叔李兆基留後着

恒基地產(00012)昨日收市後,突然發表通告披露,購入主席李兆基私人持有的中華煤氣(00003)、香港小輪(00050)、恒基發展(00097)股權,同時購入前非執行董事胡寶星私人持有的美麗華(00071)部分股權,涉及資金合共逾30億元。

儘管是次恒地購入的股權,只佔相關公司不足2%,然而分析員認為,消息或觸發市場再炒作恒基系重組、注資或私有化概念,同時李兆基售股套現所得,或用作增持恒地股權,有利恒基系內公司短期股價走勢。

Frasers Commercial Trust : Minimal dilution impact from CPPU conversion (CIMB)

Frasers Commercial Trust
Current S$1.25
Target S$1.45
Minimal dilution impact from CPPU conversion

Frasers Commercial Trust (FCOT) recently announced that 9.37m new ordinary units have been issued following the conversion of 11.1m Series A CPPUs. The conversion enlarges FCOT’s share base by c. 1.4%, which will result in marginal dilution for existing shareholders.

As such, we lowered our FY13-15 DPU estimates by around 1.4% to account for the slightly larger share base. We maintain our Outperform rating and see catalysts from the additional hotel GFA at China Square Central, while lowering our target price to S$1.45 to reflect the slight dilution.

Noble Group Ltd: X2 JV will yield long-term benefits (OCBC)

Noble Group Ltd:
Fair value S$0.76
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.030
versus: Current price S$0.930

X2 JV will yield long-term benefits
• US$500m investment
• Focus on logistics services
• SELL as near-term headwind persists

Noble Group (Noble) has announced that it has agreed to invest in a newly established private mining venture – X2 Resources – where Noble, X2, TPG will each put in US$500m. Under the agreement, Noble will be X2 Resources’ preferred marketer and provider of supply chain management (SCM) and logistics services, which is in line with its strategy to focus on its core competence as a supply chain manager.

Rotary Engineering : Earnings Recovery Likely To Drive Share Price Higher (UOBKH)

Rotary Engineering
Share Price S$0.590
Target Price S$0.880
Earnings Recovery Likely To Drive Share Price Higher

We initiate coverage with a BUY with a target price of S$0.88, representing a 49.1% upside. Rotary Engineering (Rotary) is one of the region’s leading oil and gas infrastructure service company, offering extensive engineering design, procurement, and construction (EPC) services to oil companies such as Shell, Chevron, Exxon Mobil and PetroChina. With a strong orderbook of S$1.0b, Rotary is likely to enjoy good earnings visibility over the next 24 months. Dividends are also likely to recover in 2013 and 2014 from a low of 0.5 S cents per share in 2012, providing a dividend yield of 2.6% and 5.6% respectively.

Overseas Union Enterprise : Yet Another Special Dividend In Sight (UOBKH)

Overseas Union Enterprise
Share Price S$2.59
Target Price S$3.57
Yet Another Special Dividend In Sight

OUE is exploring the listing of a commercial REIT with OUE Bayfront included in the initial portfolio, which could result in another similar special dividend as the Hospitality REIT (10-20 S cents/share). The impact from the sale of its China hotels is minimal. We maintain BUY with a reduced target of S$3.57 based on 20% to its revised RNAV of S$4.46, factoring in adjustments for special dividends and office property values.

China Merchants Hldgs (Pacific) : Divests NZ property business for HK$356m (DBSV)

China Merchants Hldgs (Pacific)
BUY S$0.86
STI : 3,210.18
Price Target : 12-Month S$ 1.07
Divests NZ property business for HK$356m

China Merchants Holdings Pacific announced on Friday that it has entered into a conditional sale and purchase agreement to sell its entire New Zealand property business to sister company China Merchants Properties Development Ltd for HK$356m.

The sale is targeted for completion in 4Q13, and the Group will realise a gain of c. HK$111m on its P&L. The divestment and consideration amount (which is about 7Scts per share) is in line with our expectations and will help the Group to focus on its core toll road business, while improving its balance sheet slightly.

曾淵滄專欄 03.10.2013:迷你直通車有作為

美國聯邦政府停止運作,昨日我在本欄努力地告訴大家不必擔心,昨日凌晨美股上升,港股也升,恒指更一度回升至23000點以上。

昨日焦點股之一是和黃(013),日前我說和黃必然再賣資產,分拆屈臣氏、豐澤,昨日市場竟然傳出和黃分拆屈臣氏,長實(001)與和黃跑贏大市,說明投資者是支持李嘉誠撤資。

9月29日上海自貿區掛牌那一天,我接到一道來自上海的長途電話,是內地的記者,她第一個問題就問:總理李克強沒有出席上海自貿區的掛牌儀式,是不是中央政府對上海自貿區的政策仍未有共識?

Sheng Siong Group: No new stores not a concern (OCBC)

Sheng Siong Group:
Fair value S$0.78
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.02
versus: Current price S$0.66

No new stores not a concern
• 3Q13 results should still show improvement
• Margin stability expected
• Conducive macro environment remains

Although 3Q13 is coming to a close, we are unconcerned by the lack of new store additions by Sheng Siong Group (SSG). While this development means that SSG will be unable to achieve its 10% gross floor area target for the year,

Hutchison Port Holdings Trust: Refinancing an important boost

Hutchison Port Holdings Trust:
Fair value US$0.84
add: 12m dividend forecast US$0.06
versus: Current price US$0.79

Refinancing an important boost
• 9% price increase following initiation
• Interest rate cost of new debt at ~1.5%
• Raise FV to US$0.84

According to Dow Jones, Hutchison Port Holdings Trust (HPHT) has secured a US$3.6b refinancing loan which comprises three tranches – a US$1b one-year loan, a US$1.6b three-year loan and a US$1b five-year loan. The one-year tranche is at an interest rate of 0.6% above Libor, while the three-year and five-year tranches are 1.1% and 1.4% above Libor respectively.

Wednesday, October 2, 2013

末季馬股難逃動盪‧4行業唱好

末季馬股難逃動盪‧4行業唱好
Created 10/02/2013 - 10:53
(吉隆坡1日訊)儘管大市動蕩,不過份析員看好包括大馬在內的新興市場將能逐步走高,馬股明年杪有望上探至1900點,而受唱好的重點領域則有油氣及建築業。

綜指明年有望上探1900點

同時,興業研究強調,投資者雖可從中小型股攫取更高價值,但也不應忽略基本面良好的大型股,並趁低累積這些股項。

玉楼金阙:如何长久? (5)杨忠礼电力退场应惠己及人

玉楼金阙:如何长久? (5)杨忠礼电力退场应惠己及人
Created 10/02/2013 - 10:04
8月28日那天,杨忠礼电力(YTLPWR)做了一项前所未有的动作,它把2.5亿库存股一笔勾销。

是的,既不是派给股东也不是卖回去公开市场,而是把这笔库存股完全注销了。这几乎是3.4%的股份,若以当时市价1.55令吉来算,可是3.88亿令吉的价钱。

是什么原因促使杨忠礼电力改弦易辙,不好象往年一样将股票当股息派回给股东呢?

Protasco extends acquisition timeline for O&G firm

Protasco extends acquisition timeline for O&G firm
Business & Markets 2013
Written by Charlotte Chong of theedgemalaysia.com    
Wednesday, 02 October 2013 10:30

KAJANG: PROTASCO BHD [] is extending its acquisition timeline for Indonesian oil and gas firm PT Anglo Slavic Indonesia (PTI ASI) from Sept 30 to March 31, 2014, said group managing director Datuk Chong Ket Pen.

He said after the EGM yesterday that the vendor, PT Anglo Slavic Utama (PT ASU), had requested an extension to fulfil its “legal duty”, and new conditions laid down by Protasco have to be complied with by March 31 next year.

个人信贷限10年还清 非银行金融机构恐掀削价战

个人信贷限10年还清 非银行金融机构恐掀削价战
Created 10/02/2013 - 11:03
(吉隆坡1日讯)分析员指出,非银行金融机构料因个人信贷融资摊还期限的改变,而面临剧烈的价格竞争。

国行设下个人信贷融资摊还期限,最多为10年的条例后,兴业研究分析员就此进行了研究。

分析员预测,相较以往个人信贷融资20年摊还期的收益率,银行及非银行金融机构业者都已准备就绪,接受10年摊还期限所带来的较低收益率。

Nam Cheong : Cruising into a record-breaking year (DBSV)

Nam Cheong Ltd:
BUY; S$0.28;
Cruising into a record-breaking year
Price Target: 12-month S$0.36

•Vessel sales contracts worth US$120m secured
•First direct sales to Latin American customer
•FY13 vessel sales set to surpass FY12 record levels
•Maintain BUY with TP of S$0.36

Four PSVs sold to a new customer in Latin America. Nam Cheong announced a significant vessel sales contract this morning worth US$120m for four Platform Supply Vessels to be delivered in FY14. The customer is an emerging offshore marine services company based in Latin America, and this is Nam Cheong's first direct sale to this region, though its vessels have been previously deployed there by other customers. These 3,200 dwt PSVs are high specs vessels with DNV-class and equipped with DP-2 system and diesel-electric propulsion. At US$30m each, the pricing is within expectations.    

China Shipyards : The strong gets stronger (DBSV)

China Shipyards
The strong gets stronger
•Yangzijiang is emerging as a stronger player
•Cosco's diversified product range is a drag on earnings
•Rongsheng's recovery path is long and bumpy
•Reiterate BUY on Yangzijiang with imminent catalyst from contract wins

Reasons for Yangzijiang's success. Our visits to a number of leading shipyards in Jiangsu point to contrasting outlook.  The strength of Yangzijiang‘s management foresight, prudent strategy, timely delivery of quality  products, dedicated top and middle management, well trained skilled labour force,  and strong balance sheet have positioned Yangzijiang as the most well run, cost efficient and profitable private shipbuilder in China.

Wilmar International : Getting Sweeter (UOBKH)

Wilmar International
Share Price S$3.17
Target Price S$3.80
Getting Sweeter

The sugar division will be the growth focus for Wilmar which is targeting new emerging markets Africa and Indochina. Growth from the sugar division is expected to outshine soybean crushing operations in China, which are still in overcapacity and putting pressure on margins. Palm operations should perform in line with expectation with the upstream affected by lower ASP and downstream driven by volume growth. Maintain BUY. Target price: S$3.80.

Q&M Dental :A Gem In More Ways Than One (MKE)

Q&M Dental Group
Buy (new)
Share price: SGD0.305
Target price: SGD0.41 (new)
A Gem In More Ways Than One

Initiate with BUY, TP of SGD0.41. Going to the dentist is no longer the horror experience it used to be. In fact, more and more people are going for regular dental visits, which is why we like Singapore dental player Q&M’s growth prospects, especially on the regional front. We initiate with a SGD0.41 TP which implies 34% upside (pegged at 34x FY14F PER, a 28% discount to its global peers and 0.5 standard deviation below its historical mean) but there is potential for greater growth potential and target price upside if its acquisition strategy bears fruit, especially in China. From a dominant position at home, it is expanding into China and Malaysia via acquisitions, both small and large.

Courts Asia: NDR Feedback (MKE)

Courts Asia
Buy(unchanged)
Share price: SGD0.755
Target price: SGD1.06 (from SGD1.15)
NDR Feedback

Negatives factored in. We hosted a NDR with Courts to confirm our views on the retail scene in Singapore and Malaysia. We believe the share price has already priced in overall weakness in demand in the past quarter. We have cut our FY14F earnings by a further 8% to account for the unexpected closure of JEM in Sep, which was beyond Courts’ control.

曾淵滄專欄 02.10.2013:美國兩黨舊戲重演

美國兩黨真的玩出火,奧巴馬政府暫時停止運作,不過股市跌幅有限。1996年,美國政府也曾經停止運作一段短時間,股市也調整過,但是基本上只是借勢調整,是創新高後回吐,我估計目前的情況,也只是重複當年的遊戲,這種兩敗俱傷的戰術,雙方都捱不了多久。

國慶假期前一天,港股大調整,恒指創一個月最大單日跌幅,跌1.5%,相信是反映同一晚美股會調整,因此預先下跌。

今年國慶黃金周,中國開始實施旅遊法,零團費的購物團消失了,不過,相信對一眾上市香港零售股影響不大,因為這些零團費的購物團,去的是一些香港人並不熟悉、位於工廠區的零售店,並不會申請上市,因為他們的經營手法是盡量低調。

Rickmers Maritime Trust: NDR Feedback (MKE)

Rickmers Maritime Trust
Not Rated
Share price: SGD0.285
NDR Feedback

Renewed interest in the shipping sector. The recent rally in shipping counters has piqued interest in the shipping industry. However, we are hesitant to call a bottom yet as we question the sustainability of this recovery. Hence, we hosted Mr. Thomas Preben Hansen and Mr. Gerard Low from Rickmers Trust Management, Trustee-Manager of Rickmers Maritime (RMT) on a one day road show, where they introduced their Trust and shared valuable insights on latest industry trends.

Frasers Commercial Trust: On accelerated growth mode (OCBC)

Frasers Commercial Trust:
Fair value S$1.45
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.079
versus: Current price S$1.26

On accelerated growth mode
• Uplift from interest and distribution savings
• Higher secured rentals expected
• Positive leasing activity in 3Q13

Frasers Commercial Trust (FCOT) has essentially locked in robust growth for FY14 with lower interest costs and the redemption of its 321.9m Series A Convertible Perpetual Preferred Units (CPPUs) this year. In addition, we expect FCOT to gain from its growth initiatives embarked over the past year.

Tuesday, October 1, 2013

Prof Chan Yan Chong’s Column 27.09.13

Stock markets plunged in Hong Kong and Singapore after news of a possible attack on Syria by the US and its allies spread. The Americans had invaded Afghanistan and Iraq incurring lots of casualties but with no positive results at the end of the day hence Syria, with no natural resources such as oil and also not a country tagged with the label of a terrorist, is not an “attractive target” for President Obama.

The chaos in Syria has been ongoing for almost a year and, thus, the Americans would have attacked the country if it had wanted to. When the Americans toppled Gaddafi last year, the US ambassador to Libya was murdered and that could have stopped the Americans from attacking Egypt when Mubarak was overthrown last year. Now that the pro-US military government in Egypt has been criticised by the world, the Americans have no choice but to join in the reprimand and nothing more than that.  There is no real reason for the US to attack Syria for fear of turning the regime into a terrorist-controlled entity so it has been a “reprimand” at the very best from the outset.

個人貸款條例轉變衝擊‧馬屋業財測下調

個人貸款條例轉變衝擊‧馬屋業財測下調
Created 10/01/2013 - 17:27
(吉隆坡1日訊)馬屋業(MBSB,1171,主板金融組)缺乏緩和個人貸款條例轉變影響的新產品,引起興業研究擔憂,決定下調馬屋業2013和2014年財測8.9%和6.2%。

興業表示,雖然管理層早前表示將在第二季推出類似產品,減輕國行在今年7月將個人貸款攤還頂限限制在10年內造成的影響,惟至今仍無消息面市,反觀主要競爭對手人民銀行(Bank Rakyat),卻已經推出改革版新產品。

“我們相信馬屋業長期貸款成長將繼續受國行打債策略影響,惟短期而言,預料該公司業績保持強勁,同時,相信該公司可能在10月份推出新貸款產品。”

覬覦雪泠岳8億合約‧勇達具重估利好

覬覦雪泠岳8億合約‧勇達具重估利好
Created 09/30/2013 - 17:22
(吉隆坡30日訊)勇達集團(ENGTEX,5056,主板工業產品組)覬覦雪州泠岳2食水過濾廠計劃總值8億令吉的輸送管合約,以供應直徑2200毫米至2600毫米的低碳鋼輸送管產品,它將是主要潛在估值重估催化利好。

達證券指出,預料雪蘭莪州水務問題,將有望在2013年杪出現解決方案,因巴生河流域約6千公里的陳舊食水輸送管需要更換,它將是勇達集團潛在的利好刺激因素。

目前大馬擁有13萬公里長的食水輸送管,預計約三分之一是陳舊的石棉洋灰輸送管,假設其中一半的石棉洋灰輸送管,將由低碳鋼及球狀石墨鑄鐵輸送管更換,後者每公尺平均價格為230令吉,使它總值達50億令吉。

Protasco returns to Libya

Protasco returns to Libya
Business & Markets 2013
Written by Charlotte Chong of theedgemalaysia.com    
Tuesday, 01 October 2013 12:13

KUALA LUMPUR (Oct 1): PROTASCO BHD [] has returned to Libya and the builder is planning to resume its infrastructure work there this month, said group managing director Datuk Chong Ket Pen.

Chong said Protasco had left the North African country in 2011. Today, he told reporters after the company's extraordinary general meeting that the Libyan government has made its first payment to Protasco for the company to restart work there.

Ship orderbook build up worrying (CIMB)

Ship orderbook build up worrying
Over the past few months, container liners have ordered significant amounts of tonnage, with CSCL, UASC and MSC joining Maersk in the 18,000 teu stakes. Our expectations of balance between effective supply and demand growth in 2015 is now at risk of being derailed.

 We maintain our sector Neutral call with our top Outperform picks in OOIL and SITC given their relative defensiveness in a volatile sector. CSCL remains Neutral, while NOL is an Underperform. We have not changed our forecasts or target prices in this report. Freight rates and share prices may rise closer to year end with seasonal restocking.

IJM Plantations : Hold for long-term growth (DBSV)

IJM Plantations
HOLD RM2.99
KLCI: 1,792.48
Price Target: 12-Month RM3.30 (Prev RM3.30)
Hold for long-term growth

• Expect 2QFY14 earnings recovery on higher FFB output
• New planting to slow down; but output is ramping up in Indonesian maturing estates
• HOLD rating maintained with RM3.34 TP

Near-term rebound. We expect IJMP’s 2QFY14 earnings to improve significantly from the lackluster 1QFY14 performance, which was dragged by higher upkeep cost, overheads and inventory reduction. We understand that the inventory reduction exercise is ongoing, as its current stock level of 14k MT is still higher than normalised level of 10k MT. However, seasonally strong harvest during the quarter is likely to drive 2QFY14 earnings growth of 135% q-o-q.

Golden Agri Resources : Improving outlook (DBSV)

Golden Agri Resources
NOT RATED S$0.53
STI: 3,211.75
Price Target: 12-month S$0.48 (Prev S$0.45)
Improving outlook

• FY13F-15F earnings raised by 3-12% on higher expected 2H13 CPO output, weaker Rupiah; partly offset by lower CPO ASP
• Expansion target cut by 33%; as 1H13 achievement looks too low
• Acquisition of 16k ha and investment in Verdant Fund still on target for completion in 2H13
• NOT RATED. Fair value is adjusted to S$0.48

Earnings revised up. We raised FY13F/14F/15F earnings by 3%/8%/12%. We are slightly more optimistic on 2H13 output, which should account for c.60% of its full year forecast.

First Resources : Adding value from biodiesel (DBSV)

First Resources
BUY S$1.875
STI: 3,211.75
Price Target: 12-month S$2.19 (Prev S$2.15)
Adding value from biodiesel

• FY13F-15F earnings lowered by -1% to +6% on cuts in CPO ASP, weaker Rupiah
• FR to continue producing biodiesel for domestic sales, given higher mandatory blends in Indonesia
• BUY for 17% upside. We believe the market has yet to price in biodiesel margin contribution
• Risk lies in opaque forward contracts

Rupiah depreciation confers slight benefit. We tweaked FR’s FY13F/14F/15F net profits by -1%/+6%/+6% ; as we impute lower CPO ASP, weaker Rupiah exchange rate and higher minimum wages next year. Lower spot prices (in USD terms) may drag overall ASP, despite higher prices from remaining forward contracts. This should partly offset benefits from lower Rupiah costs. Nevertheless, there is upside in earnings, as we now impute domestic biodiesel sales from FY14F (vs. zero previously).

Bumitama Agri : More attractive now (DBSV)

Bumitama Agri
BUY S$0.98
STI : 3,211.75
Price Target : 12-Month S$ 1.26 (Prev S$ 1.20)
More attractive now

• FY13F/14F/15F earnings revised by -5%/+4%/+9% on weaker Rupiah and changes in CPO prices
• Rising maturity, CPO yields, weak Rupiah offset prospective jump in labour costs
• Bumitama (BAL) remains on target for 13k ha p.a. expansion through end FY14F
• Most undervalued counter in our universe. Reiterating BUY call for 29% upside

More earnings upside next year. Next year’s strong volume growth, higher ASP (thanks to weak Rupiah) would be partly offset prospective jump in minimum wage. BAL is one of only a few counters with positive earnings growth this year; and we expect 29% earnings CAGR between FY12 and FY15F. Reduction in FY13F earnings is due to higher USD borrowing costs in Rupiah terms.

Wilmar International : Lacking near-term catalysts (DBSV)

Wilmar International
HOLD S$3.26
STI: 3,211.75
Price Target: 12 months S$3.53 (Prev S$3.46)
Lacking near-term catalysts

• Cuts in soybean oil and palm oil prices reduce Oilseeds & Grains M&P, Plantations and Consumer pretax
• But Palm & Lauric M&P pretax margin is raised on better-than-expected YTD performance
• Beneficiary of Indonesia’s higher biodiesel mandatory blend
• HOLD for 8% upside; collect on weakness

Plantation : Bottom of the cycle (DBSV)

Bottom of the cycle
• Global palm oil stockpile is at one-year low on stronger-than-expected demand, despite global slowdown
• Near-term weakness in CPO prices may not drag planters much, given output, earnings recoveries
• CY13F/14F/15F CPO prices adjusted -4%/-10%/-11% in USD, 0%/+1%/-1% in MYR. Beware of upside risks from FY16F, as supply growth decelerates
• Multi-year CPO price gain from here. Top BUYs: AALI, BAL, IFAR (upgraded), FR, TSH (upgraded), IOI

Darkest before dawn. Global palm oil output was mostly lower-than-expected in 1HCY13, and we expect a strong seasonal pick up during the Sep-Nov13 harvests. Palm oil may have partly priced-in this prospect, as end-Aug13 global palm oil inventory is already at one-year low. By year-end, we expect global palm oil stockpile to fall to 21.4% of consumption from 22.6% as at end-Dec12, and declining towards 20.2% by end-Dec14.

Monday, September 30, 2013

Shipping industry not out of danger yet: Analyst

Despite hopes that global trade levels are recovering, it could take some time for the shipping industry's chronic overcapacity to improve, an industry expert warned.

The shipping industry has been through rough waters during the economic crisis, with a decline in global demand resulting in a substantial capacity glut – especially on the Asia-Europe route. This hit the shipping lines' revenue hard: the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) -- which tracks day freight rates for dry bulk shippers – fell to a 26-year low in 2012.

However, this year has seen signs of a recovery on the back of global economies returning slowly to growth, rising consumer confidence and a rebound in Chinese commodity demand. As such, the BDI has risen almost 200 percent this year.

亚洲新兴国 笑傲直销业

亚洲新兴国 笑傲直销业
Created 09/30/2013 - 10:54
直销领域去年总销售额1668亿7600万美元(约5230亿令吉),按年扬升5.4%,显示全球直销领域增长依然旺盛。

值得注意的是,亚洲及新兴国家的直销领域成长速度惊人,去年的世界直销排行榜中,除了美国稳坐冠军宝座,接下来4个名次名分别由日本、中国、巴西及韩国拿下。

世界直销协会联盟(WFDSA)主席亚历山德鲁卡鲁兹日前为大马直销协会创会35周年,特地从巴西来马,连同大马直销公会主席吴晋安接受本报专访。

一股作气:勇达集团盈利有望创新高

一股作气:勇达集团盈利有望创新高
Created 09/30/2013 - 12:27
只闻楼梯响,不见人下来的冷岳河第二期输水计划(Langat2),预计今年内动工,勇达集团(ENGTEX,5056,主板贸服股)是潜在受惠者之一。

此外,在批发、经销和制造业务的营收取得双位数强劲增长,让上半年的盈利已超越2012全年的表现,今年有望创新高。

至于产业发展业务方面,该集团的计划包兴建综合住宅与商业产业项目、一栋商业大厦以及扩充酒店客房等,成为该业务在未来的营收推手。

慧眼睇市:航運復甦乾散貨船吃香

筆者於九月初時以「航運企業盈利有望轉佳」為題,提及航運企業可以短線投機為部署,回顧這個月板塊表現亦十分強勢,有投資者問及現在如何部署?筆者再次分析此板塊,並給予買賣策略。

本月航運股份跑贏大市主因是反映乾散貨運費的波羅的海指數(BDI)直線上升,近日突破2,000大關。過往散裝船供過於求,運價急跌,在新增運能逐漸消化後,運價開始反映市場需求。踏入下半年,受惠於歐、美等國經濟復甦,中國、印度等新興國家城鎮化及基礎建設需求持續推升,市場對鐵礦砂、煤炭及榖物等運輸需求加劇。乾散貨航運業運供過於求逐漸改善,全球散裝船觸底反彈,引起近日指數攀升潮。

Koh Brothers: Bolstering Growth Backed By Strong Accolades And Track Record

27 SEPTEMBER 2013
Koh Brothers: Bolstering Growth Backed By Strong Accolades And Track Record
By Nicholas Tan

Ever been to the Marina Barrage for a family outing or strolled along the 4.2 kilometres man-made waterway at Punggol? You will be marvelled by the beauty of these new areas of interest, which have provided Singaporeans with another new area for recreation and leisure. It was built by our home-grown construction firm Koh Brothers Group, whom has walked hand-in-hand and grew with our nation over the past four decades.

SPH: Yield attractions (DBSV)

SPH:
BUY S$4.10;
Yield attractions;
Price Target : 12-month S$ 4.53 (Prev S$ 4.75)
By: Andy SIM  CFA +65 6398 7969; andysim@dbsvickers.com

•Expect final/special DPS of 16Scts with payout in Dec, equating to 4% yield for a c.10-week period
•Muted earnings priced in; rebound likely with recent upward GDP revisions
•Financials can comfortably support another 20 to 30 Scts/share payout, on top of 22 Scts in FY14F
•Reiterate BUY, TP revised to S$4.53

UMS Holdings: Major Event Opens Up Opportunities (DMG)

UMS Holdings: Major Event Opens Up Opportunities
(BUY, SGD0.52, TP: SGD0.71)

We believe Applied Materials (AMAT)’s acquisition of Tokyo Electron Ltd (TEL) will make it a dominant industry player, which will in turn benefit its suppliers. While we do not expect UMS to immediately gain from this, we see it as the sole Singapore proxy to ride on this landscape-changing event. Maintain BUY, with our DCF-based TP unchanged at SGD0.71 (WACC: 10.9%, terminal growth: 0%).

Hutchison Port Hldgs Trust : ARising Tide LiŌsHPHT(AM)

Hutchison Port Hldgs Trust
LAST CLOSE: US$0.78
FAIR VALUE: US$0.865
ARising Tide LiŌsHPHT

Hutchison Port Holdings Trust (HPHT) is up 6.1% following our previous update on 31st July 2013. Positive economic data out of China and the US are likely to have catalyzed the recent run-up in its share price. While an improving macro outlook would augur well for HPHT, we also perceive its successful refinancing as a positive development. We raise our TP to US$0.865 and reiterate BUY.

麥嘉華(Marc Faber)筆記 30.09.13:孳息看跌 美債寧買勿沽

我在較早前提到,小投機者如今是美國國庫債券的大淡友,他們加起來持有的空倉張數是2009年以來最多。遺憾的是,小投機者過去幾次都成為「明燈」,每當他們大舉出擊沽空美國國庫券,債市便反過來大升。

由小投機者組成的債市「空軍」隨時全軍覆沒,加上美國經濟尚未完全復元,以及聯儲局承諾會維持超低息政策一段「長」日子,個人認為現階段寧可買入美國國庫券,而不是沽空。

還有一個利好債市的原因,就是銀行業正「前所未有地」拋出美國國庫券。銀行業上一次這樣大規模沽出債券是2011年春季,美國國庫券其後勁揚超過兩成。

棕油存货不断增加令供应量创下新高

棕油存货不断增加令供应量创下新高
文: 彭博社 (译:麦美莹) 2013年09月27日 展望
印尼是最大的棕油生产国,它的棕油存量创下新高,令环球植物油供应量达到有史以来的最高水平,令食品、燃油以至肥皂等制品的成本降低。

美国农业部(USDA)透露,印尼的棕油(最普遍的植物油)存量将从2013年尾增加66%至2014年尾达到300万公吨。USDA的数据显示,环球出产的9种植物油,包括大豆油、花生油及棕油等将会增加4.3%至1亿6,730万吨。戈德瑞国际(Godrej International)的一名董事Dorab Mistry说,至明年1月,期货可能下跌多达13%至每吨2,000令吉(624美元),是自2009年最低的价格。

曾淵滄專欄 30.09.13:長和售產陸續有來

電能(006)將分拆港燈上市,即李嘉誠在撤資?是的,李嘉誠的撤資行動早已開始,2011年3月,他已將中港碼頭業務的絕大部份股份,借在新加坡上市賣掉。

李嘉誠為甚麼要撤資?理由很多,第一個當然是不要將所有的雞蛋放在一個籃子裏,分散投資,趁歐債危機到歐洲收購,電能、長江基建(1038)甚至長實(001)本身已在海外投下巨額資金,但錢從哪裏來?當然得賣香港的資產。

第二個理由是,李嘉誠賣的企業都是夕陽企業,香港這個曾經是世界第一大港的碼頭,今日排名已一跌再跌,沒有前途可言;香港滿街是大超市小超市,租金高,競爭激烈,超市的純利率非常低;港燈也是沒有前景的公司,港燈局限於港島發電,用電量還能增加多少?面對巨大的社會政治壓力,港燈能加多少電費?2018年,目前的9.99%利潤保證合約到期,新合約的利潤率必進一步下降。長實旗下的商場,也早已以透過REIT的形式賣掉。

Aviation : More of 2013 in 2014? (CIMB)

 More of 2013 in 2014?
We recently met with AirAsia and MAS to discuss the operating and competitive environment in Malaysia. We found out that MAS was determined to stay relevant as its competitors expanded, suggesting that the weak yield environment of 2013 could extend into 2014.

 As such, we reduce EPS estimates and target prices for AirAsia and AAX. AirAsia remains an Outperform while we downgrade AAX to a Neutral from Outperform as it is very sensitive to yield pressure. We stay Underperform on MAS. Our top pick MAHB remains an Outperform as a pure volume play, with forecasts and target price raised. We retain our Overweight sector call.

Yangzijiang Shipbuilding : Share Price S$1.12 Target Price S$1.32(UOBKH)

Yangzijiang Shipbuilding
Share Price S$1.12
Target Price S$1.32
Share Price S$1.12
Target Price S$1.32

We visited YZJ’s New Yangzi and Xinfu yards and attended the launch ceremony of YZJ’s first 10,000TEU containership. We believe it is a milestone for YZJ who has the potential to build larger containerships and compete with leading Korean yards. Its 2013 order target of US$2.5b is well achievable and the recent pick-up in newbuild prices is positive for YZJ. Maintain BUY. Target price: S$1.32.

Sunday, September 29, 2013

PhillipCapital Weekly Market Watch 26.09.2013 Market Strategy



AirAsia : Dragged into the trench (CIMB)

AirAsia Bhd
Current RM2.65
Target RM3.05
Dragged into the trench

AirAsia was not spared from the aggressive pricing set by MAS and Malindo this year, and has had to lower its fares in order to fill up its planes. AirAsia is nonetheless a well-run airline with a unit cost far below the rest, allowing it to weather the storm best.

We lower our 2013-15 forecasts on expected weaker yields. While the near-term outlook for AirAsia will be challenging due to MAS‟s continued heavy discounting, valuations are now reflective of the risks. We maintain our Outperform call, and roll over our target price basis from 11X CY14 P/E to CY15 (sector average). If MAS reverses its aggressive pricing strategy in late-2014, a major re-rating catalyst would emerge.

AirAsia X : Competition goes global(CIMB)

AirAsia X
Current RM1.14
Target RM1.23

MAS is expanding capacity heavily throughout the Asia Pacific region after withdrawing its long-haul flights last year. This is where AAX plies its trade and MAS's unwelcome capacity injections have hit yields. Separately, its Thai AAX venture may produce near-term losses.

We cut 2013-15 forecasts by 26-36% after reducing our yield assumptions. Margins are currently very thin, so the carrier is especially sensitive to small changes in yield and exchange rate assumptions. We downgrade AAX from Outperform to Neutral. Our target price is now based on 11x CY15 P/E (sector average) vs. SOP previously that included the valuation of its future Bali hub which we have now removed.

Malaysian Airline System : Strategy to persist in 2014(CIMB)

Malaysian Airline System
Current RM0.33
Target RM0.17
Strategy to persist in 2014

MAS has been embarking on an expansion spree this year in order to improve its fleet and personnel utilisation. This came at the expense of yields, which MAS seemed unperturbed by as the carrier seeks to earn every incremental dollar it can from its fixed cost base.

We adjust our FY13-15 forecasts by -4% to 6% for housekeeping matters. We see continued losses at MAS at least for the next three years, with losses potentially widening even further in 2014 on the back of a weaker ringgit, which serves as a key de-rating catalyst. Our target price is based on an unchanged CY14 P/BV of 1x. Maintain Underperform.

Supermax : Caught up with the peers (TA)

Supermax Corporation
12-month upside potential
Previous target price 2.10
Revised target price 2.75
Current price (as at 17 Sep) 2.73

 Caught up with the peers
Supermax’s share price has done very well over the last 2 months, appreciating 30% in a catch-up play. With its share price appreciating 43% YTD, we believe the catch up play has run its course. While we downgrade the glove sector from overweight to NEUTRAL following its stellar performance YTD, we take this opportunity to raise Supermax’s target P/E from 10x to 13x, in tandem with our P/E upgrade for our sector top pick, Kossan. This implies an approximately 20% valuation discount to both Top Glove and Kossan’s target P/E, given its lower earnings growth (3-year CAGR of 10.5%). All in, we maintain our NEUTRAL call on Supermax with a revised TP of RM2.75 (+30.9%), based on 13x 12-month forward P/E.

Sunway REIT sure assets will exceed RM7b by 2015

Sunway REIT sure assets will exceed RM7b by 2015
2013/09/26

PETALING JAYA: Sunway REIT, Malaysia's second largest real estate investment trust, is confident its total assets under management will exceed RM7 billion by 2015.

"There's another RM3 billion in pipeline assets and third-party acquisitions," Sunway REIT Management Sdn Bhd chief executive officer Datuk Jeffrey Ng said after the company's investor meeting here yesterday.

Listed on Bursa Malaysia's Main Market in 2010, Sunway REIT manages properties in the retail and hospitality space in Penang, Perak, Selangor and Kuala Lumpur, valued at RM5.18 billion.

打出旅游王牌,新加坡赌场压倒澳门赌场

打出旅游王牌,新加坡赌场压倒澳门赌场
文: 汤森路透 (译:伍丽芳) 2013年09月25日 汤森路透
由于新加坡政府对博彩业实施管制措施及大市的前景黯淡,为了增加收入,新加坡两家耗巨资兴建的综合娱乐城专注于吸引旅客和举办贸易展,这引起了亚洲赌场业者及监管机构的关注。

新加坡已成为亚洲富裕及有名之士的乐园,它拥有许多吸引人的设施与活动,包括高级俱乐部、由米其林(Michelin)星级厨师坐镇的餐厅及世界唯一的Formula One (F1)夜间赛事等。

拥有新加坡滨海湾金沙(Marina Bay Sands, MBS)赌场的金沙集团(Las Vegas Sands Corporation)表示,其酒店(共有2,500间客房)已客满,而它十分希望在其3个地标性大楼附近增建度假酒店与会议设施。

EcoWorld購威南地皮‧檳房產加速重估

EcoWorld購威南地皮‧檳房產加速重估
Created 09/25/2013 - 17:30
(吉隆坡25日訊)繼上週瞄準南馬後,丹斯里劉啟盛效應再度“發功”席捲北馬檳城,興業研究認為,由劉啟盛操作的EcoWorld進軍威省南部,有望“點石成金”,帶動檳島地段及產業短期內獲重估。

催生土地新基準價格

報導指EcoWorld以每平方呎30令吉以上水平,收購威省南部約60英畝地段,相信該地區很快會有新的價格基準,並惠及週邊發展商。

许兄弟集团:优秀佳绩及屡获嘉许推动业务蒸蒸日上

许兄弟集团:优秀佳绩及屡获嘉许推动业务蒸蒸日上
文: 陈挚文 (译:杨佳文) 2013年09月27日 企业摘要
你曾举家到滨海堤坝(Marina Barrage)出游,或者在全长4.2公里的榜鹅水道(Punggol Waterway)漫步吗?这两个风景怡人、适合聚会的新去处,都是由本地建筑企业许兄弟集团建造。在过去的四十多年来,许兄弟集团一直都与新加坡携手并进,共同成长。

本地建筑企业许兄弟集团(Koh Brothers)成立已有47年,在经历了一次又一次的经济危机和衰退后,公司始终屹立不倒,其业务也不断茁壮成长。如今,公司已是本地建筑、房地产发展和专业工程领域中的知名业者,以打造新加坡的景观而闻名。

曾淵滄教路 24.09.13 : 退市無期 高息股重現吸引力

退市無期 高息股重現吸引力
九月十八日,美國聯儲局開完會,宣布一切不變,不加息、不減買債券,這是意想不到的,全世界都估計錯誤,在聯儲局開會之前,華爾街的共識是聯儲局不會加息,但會開始減買債券,少量地減,一般猜測減買100億美元債券,股市也已消化了這個猜測,美國道瓊斯指數在聯儲局開會前已大幅回升至很接近創歷史新高的水平,在這個意料不到的好消息推動之下,道瓊斯指數一舉而上,再創新高。

債息回落才退市

聯儲局完全沒有減買債,理由何在?會議過後,主席伯南克發表了一些談話,這是重要的談話,我們可以從他的談話中來猜測聯儲局在甚麼時候才會真正退市?

前瞻指引失效!? Fed引爆誠信危機!?



Oldtown : All cylinders fired up for FMCG (Alliance)

Oldtown
12-month upside potential
Target price 3.03
Current price (as at 12 Sep) 2.46
All cylinders fired up for FMCG

 Following yesterday’s analyst briefing, our conviction on Oldtown’s growth prospect is reaffirmed as the new FMCG plant has been fully commissioned in July 2013 which will underpin this segment’s strong earnings growth going forward. Furthermore, the company’s potential move to distribute its products via a B-to-C e-commerce site in China will further enhance its growth prospect. Hence, we reiterate our BUY call on Oldtown, with an unchanged TP of RM3.03, based on 18x 12-month forward P/E. We remain positive on its long term prospects, in particular the potential contribution from China market.

Rubber Gloves: Still Riding On Nitrile (MKE)

Rubber Gloves
Still Riding On Nitrile

 Downgrade to NEUTRAL. PER valuations of glove stocks have re-rated significantly from 8-16x (end-2012) to 11-19x presently amid a positive operating environment and superior financials (high ROEs, zero/low gearing). Valuations are fairly reflective of fundamentals at this stage and thus we are downgrading the sector to NEUTRAL from Overweight. Kossan remains our top pick with a higher TP of MYR7.60 (+7%) as we attached a higher PER target of 16x (from 15x), still lower than its peer average of 15.6x. Our HOLD on Hartalega (TP MYR6.71) is maintained but we have downgraded Top Glove to HOLD (from BUY) with a slightly lower TP of MYR6.40 (-5%).

QE退場面面觀



金融海嘯5周年 失速的經濟終邁向復甦



蘋果神話不再了嗎



Warren E. Buffett(沃伦•巴菲特)
Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful
别人贪婪时我恐惧, 别人恐惧时我贪婪
投资只需学好两门课: 一,是如何给企业估值,二,是如何看待股市波动
吉姆·罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)
“错过时机”胜于“搞错对象”:不会全军覆没!”
做自己熟悉的事,等到发现大好机会才投钱下去

乔治·索罗斯(George Soros)

“犯错误并没有什么好羞耻的,只有知错不改才是耻辱。”

如果操作过量,即使对市场判断正确,仍会一败涂地。

李驰(中国巴菲特)
高估期间, 卖对, 不卖也对, 买是错的。
低估期间, 买对, 不买也是对, 卖是错的。

Tan Teng Boo


There’s no such thing as defensive stocks.Every stock can be defensive depending on what price you pay for it and what value you get,
冷眼(冯时能)投资概念
“买股票就是买公司的股份,买股份就是与陌生人合股做生意”。
合股做生意,则公司股份的业绩高于一切,而股票的价值决定于盈利。
价值是本,价格是末,故公司比股市重要百倍。
曹仁超-香港股神/港股明灯
1.有智慧,不如趁势
2.止损不止盈
成功者所以成功,是因为不怕失败!失败者所以失败,是失败后不再尝试!
曾淵滄-散户明灯
每逢灾难就是机会,而是在灾难发生时贱价买股票,然后放在一边,耐性地等灾难结束
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