Saturday, September 28, 2013

陈循明:新世界百货逆市上扬

陈循明:新世界百货逆市上扬

新世界百货(0825)全年盈利虽然只增长了6%,股价仍能逆市造好,中午收4.19元,逆市升了0.17元,升幅4.2%。股价能够逆市上升大概又是炒十一黄金周的概念,今早其股价轻微突破了4.17元的阻力,如果能够守其上守稳,或可上望4.4元,而100天价的4.05元则为其短期回落的支持。

百盛集团(3368)则升了0.03元,中午收3.29元,升幅0.92%。其股价连续两天开始下试10天价3.23元的支持,却又连续多天于100天价的3.25元水平争持,显示目前正处于关键时刻,如能继续于3.25元水平守稳则后市可先行向上挑战3.54元的阻力,如跌破3.25元水平则有下试3元关口的可能。

Palm Oil Stockpiles Expanding Adds To Record Supply

27 SEPTEMBER 2013
Palm Oil Stockpiles Expanding Adds To Record Supply
By Bloomberg

Record inventories of palm in Indonesia, the largest producer, will add to the biggest global supply of vegetable oils in history, driving down costs for makers of everything from food to fuel to soap.

Indonesian stockpiles of the most-used oil derived from crops will rise 66 percent to 3 million metric tons by the end of 2013-2014, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) says. Global output of nine oils including soy, peanut and palm will expand 4.3 percent to 167.3 million tons, USDA data show. Dorab Mistry, a director at Godrej International who has traded the oils for three decades, says futures may drop as much as 13 percent to RM2,000 (US$624) a ton by January, the lowest since 2009.

曾淵滄-股市资讯专栏 27.09.2013: 联储局不退市,市场何去何从?

联储局不退市,市场何去何从?
文: 曾渊沧博士 2013年09月27日 曾渊沧博士专栏
美国联储局出人意料没退市。我早前撰文说,希望联储局在9月退市,让市场计算退市的影响。若9月份不退市,市场就会开始担心10月、12月会不会退市。联储局不退市,不要高兴得太早,还要留意中国人民银行的反应。上述的两项因素大家的确要考虑。

中秋节过后,美国股民则已开始担忧10月会不会退市。9月19至24日一连4天,美股回落,道指跌至低过联储局宣布不退市前的水平。多位联储局官员出来说三道四,有人支持不退市,有人反对不退市。看来这一次会议,内部争论激烈,因此股民担心10月退市是正常的。

AirAsia: Indonesia – an increasingly important piece to strengthen regional presence (TA)

AirAsia Berhad
TP: RM 3.91
Last Traded: RM2.66
Indonesia – an increasingly important piece to strengthen regional presence

We met up with the management of Indonesia AirAsia (IAA) recently to gain some insights into the IAA’s operating track record in Indonesia, near-term targets as well as its initial public offering plan. Key takeaways from the meeting are as follows:
i) IAA is expected to maintain its pole position in the international segment;
ii) Its domestic market share is expected to hit 7% by end 2013 from 5% as at 2Q13;
iii) It is looking to close up the margin gap with MAA and TAA, and
iv) The proposed IPO plan could experience further delays.

Tasco : Gradually On The Mend (RHB)

Tasco
Target Price: MYR2.30
Price: MYR2.03
Gradually On The Mend

Tasco’s earnings, which had been pressured by declining exports, have recovered somewhat of late. Thus, we expect its outlook to improve in the near- to mid-term, although we are lowering our FY13F-14F earnings forecasts due to higher fuel costs. Notwithstanding the lower net profits, we lift our call to BUY (from Neutral) with our FV revised to MYR2.30 (from MYR2.10).

Freight Management : Outlook Remains Bright (RHB)

Freight Management
Target Price: MYR1.68
Price: MYR1.52
Outlook Remains Bright

Freight Management (FMH)’s robust FY13 results were mainly attributed to its asset-light business, which helped it to weather difficult times. Nonetheless, we are paring our FY14F/15F earnings forecasts as the fuel price hike may lead to rising operating cost. Despite this, we are still positive on the company’s potential growth. Maintain BUY, with a MYR1.68 FV.

Hunza plans to start RM7bil project in Bayan Baru in 2015

AFTER its Gurney Paragon project, Hunza Properties Bhd plans to focus on the development of commercial projects on the island and in Seberang Prai.

The group plans to start a RM7bil commercial city project in 2015 in Bayan Baru in the south-west district, a RM700mil commercial-cum-residential development in Juru, and a hotel in Tanjung Tokong.

Group executive chairman Datuk Khor Teng Tong tells StarBizWeek that the commercial city project, to be located on 16.1ha in Bayan Baru, would take 10 years to complete.

IJM Plantations : Field trip reveals a field day for earnings in FY16 (CIMB)

IJM Plantations
Current RM2.96
Field trip reveals a field day for earnings in FY16

 Our field trip helped explain the high yields for the Sabah plantations of IJM Plantations (IJMP), the mid-cap plantation arm of IJM Corp. We see rich growth prospects for its young estates in Indonesia.

Admittedly, near-term earnings are unexciting due to lower selling prices, rising costs and translation losses for its US$ debt. However, from an asset value perspective, the stock has a potential value of RM3.60-3.70 or 22-25% higher than its current price. We expect most of this value to be priced in during 2015 when its share liquidity improves and its Indonesian operations become more profitable.

Matrix Concepts - Gaining traction with investors

Matrix Concepts -
Price Target: RM3.40 ()
Share price: RM2.93
Gaining traction with investors

Highlights
Share price has gained more than 10% last week, as investors begin to better appreciate MCH’s growth and dividend story, and its net cash position. We now revisit its re-rating catalysts.

Strong earnings visibility, with unbilled sales now standing at RM362m (0.8x FY12 revenue).

Hai-O : Weaker MLM Numbers (RHB)

Hai-O
Target Price: MYR3.28
Price: MYR2.74
Weaker MLM Numbers

Hai-O (HAIO)’s 1Q14 results were largely in line with our and consensus forecasts. We deem the numbers within expectations, as 2H is a traditionally stronger period for the company. Revenue and earnings were lower due to weaker sales from its MLM division. Maintain BUY, with our FV unchanged at MYR3.28.

• Lower sales from MLM. HAIO’s 1Q14 revenue and net profit declined by 9.7% and 14.6% y-o-y to MYR54.7m and MYR8.8m respectively.

大行报告》德银降新百货(00825.HK)目标价至4.84元 评级“买入”

大行报告》德银降新百货(00825.HK)目标价至4.84元 评级“买入”

德银表示,新百货(00825.HK)全年业绩符合预期。集团采取轻资产管理模式,惟不代表经营去杠杆化,其执行力度强劲,在轻资产管理模式下,同店销售更好,租金收入及管理费亦较高,相信集团有能力抗衡经营杠杆降低。

管理层预期高端产品消费於未来一年仍然受压,不过对集团而言,并不是最坏情况。集团有多个目标,包括增加管理费,因内地过多商用物业的开发商欠缺管理经验;冀收取额外租金收入;并做到审慎管理商品组合,降低佣金率增加的压力;及成本控制,以协助公司减低经营杠杆化。该行下调2014-15年除税后纯利(NPAT)预测9-10.6%,目标价由5.5元降至4.84元,评级维持“买入”。

NTPM - Still Going Strong

NTPM -
Price Target:0.69
Last Price:0.63
Still Going Strong

NTPM’s 1QFY14 results were in line. Sales and earnings grew 8.6% and 17.6% y-o-y respectively, bolstered by better performance across the board, especially in the personal care segment. We still like the stock given its recent Vietnam plant expansion and stellar growth in the personal care business. Maintain BUY, with our FV unchanged at MYR0.69, based on 13x CY14 EPS.

¨ Still looking good. NTPM’s1QFY14turnover rose 8.6% y-o-y to MYR124.8m while net profit jumped 17.6% y-o-y to MYR12m. The stronger sales were mainly driven by better showing at its paper and personal care product divisions.

Friday, September 27, 2013

Singapore home prices could fall 20% by 2015: Barclays

Residential property prices in the wealthy island nation of Singapore could be headed for a sizable correction of up to 20 percent by 2015, according to Barclays.
"We believe the risk of a residential property market correction in the next two years is rising, as expected higher interest rates look set to coincide with a large increase in housing supply over 2014-15," Tricia Song, analyst at Barclays wrote in a report on Friday.

The bank forecasts prices will remain flat in 2013, before falling 5 percent in 2014 and another 5-15 percent in 2015.

Southeast Asia's financial center is home to one of the most expensive real estate markets in the world. Prices have soared over 60 percent since mid-2009, spurred by low interest rates.

预算案料“重手” 降温房市 产业股目标价全线下修

预算案料“重手” 降温房市 产业股目标价全线下修
Created 09/27/2013 - 08:04
(吉隆坡26日讯)来临的财政预算案宣布料将“下重手”实行多项房市降温措施,券商预期房产发展商势必受重击,达证券将房地产领域投资评级下调至“中和”,该机构所关注的房产发展公司目标价格全线下修。

达证券分析员在报告中指出,房产发展领域因缺乏新鲜指引,股价表现已达顶,吉隆坡产业指数(KLPRP)年初至今累积涨幅已达28%,这意味着该领域已利好用尽。

No immediate catalyst for Unisem

No immediate catalyst for Unisem
Business & Markets 2013
Written by MIDF Research    
Friday, 27 September 2013 11:03

UNISEM (M) BHD []
(Sept 26, 88 sen)
Maintain sell at 89.5 sen with a target price of 62 sen: Excluding the luxury car variant, the general car population has low integrated circuit (IC) content. Thus, there is tremendous room to incorporate more cars with IC content. One such IC, designed specifically for tyre pressure sensors, may become a growth driver for the company.

From Nov 1, passenger cars sold in Europe must be equipped with this sensor. Japan as well as other car producing countries are expected to follow suit.

M’sia Smelting falls 3% on mining contract termination

Hot Stock M’sia Smelting falls 3% on mining contract termination
Business & Markets 2013
Written by Chong Jin Hun of theedgemalaysia.com    
Friday, 27 September 2013 11:18

KUALA LUMPUR (Sept 27): Malaysia Smelting Corp Bhd (MSC) fell as much as 3% after Indonesian authorities terminated the firm's tin-mining contract in the neighbouring country.

At 10.59am, MSC which was Bursa Malaysia's sixth-largest decliner, changed hands at RM2.76 with 105,100 shares done. The stock had earlier fallen as much as nine sen to RM2.75.

Malaysia Smelting Corp - Chapter On PT Koba Tin Ends

Malaysia Smelting Corp -
Price Target:2.35
Last Price:2.79
Chapter On PT Koba Tin Ends

We see the end of PT Koba Tin’s contract of work (CoW) as a letdown, despite its minimal financial impact. The recent spike in tin prices also brings  little  cheer  as  SMELT  is  unable  to  fully  capitalise  on  it.  We  are also  mindful  of  a  potential  impairment  on  its  investment  in  KM Resources.  We  exclude  MYR0.50  per  share  from  our  1.0x  FY14F  P/BV valuation. Maintain SELL and MYR2.35 FV.

新世界全年賺1­41億


新世界發展(00017)公布,截至今年六月底止年度,錄得純利141.48億元,較去年增長39.54%,每股盈利2.28元,派末期息30仙,而期內基本溢利63.273億元,上升26.1%。業績遜預期,新世界昨日股價隨大市下跌,收報11.88元,跌1.16%。

報告王:全城睇好 揸實中海油 - 高明

德銀稍為看好中海油(883),該股跌0.4%報15.74元,且先看報告內容。

德銀將該股目標價由14.32元升至14.57元,但評級維持持有。報告指,中海油股價近期表現良好,但該行認為正受油價偏軟影響,管理層對討論加拿大尼克森(今年2月完成收購)仍然顯得冷淡,分析員指可能是公司文化,惟不值得有溢價的估值,又指對2014至2015年的產能增長沒有質疑,但懷疑產能增長能否抵銷成本上升及偏軟的油價。

八成分析員籲買
分析員引述德銀對油價的預測,料2013年至2016年布蘭特期油由每桶109美元每年下降,至2016年的預測為每桶100美元,同期WTI期油預測則由今年每桶100美元,降至2016年每桶85美元。而中海油總產量的7%售予WTI期油市場。

ASL MARINE: Fidelity Ups Stake To 5%, Becoming Substantial Shareholder

ASL MARINE: Fidelity Ups Stake To 5%, Becoming Substantial Shareholder
Written by Sim Kih
Thursday, 26 September 2013 07:00

FIDELITY MANAGEMENT AND RESEARCH (FMR) has become a substantial shareholder of ASL Marine, 3 weeks after it posted a 40% year-on-year surge in net profit attributable to shareholders to reach S$45.3 million.

On 18 Sep, one of the world’s largest mutual fund and financial services groups, FMR, purchased 20,000 ASL shares at 67 cents each from the open market, raising its deemed interest to 5%.

Soilbuild Business Space REIT: Worthy Challenger to the Big Boys (DBSV)

Soilbuild Business Space REIT:
BUY (Initiating Coverage) S$0.735;
Worthy Challenger to the Big Boys;
Price Target: 12-Month S$0.87

•Quality portfolio with high exposure in business park space
•Reputable Sponsor with visible inorganic growth pipeline
•Initiate with BUY, TP S$0.87

Quality portfolio with unique competitive strengths. Soilbuild Business Space REIT (“SB REIT”) offers exposure into a modern portfolio of business park/industrial properties in Singapore with a valuation of S$935m. Compared to existing industrial S-REITs, its portfolio is the youngest, with an average age of 3.1 years (by GFA), backed by long land lease tenure of c.51 years. SB REIT will derive 42-43% of its net property income from master leases, with tenures ranging from 5-15 years, and this will offer strong income visibility to the REIT.

Malaysia Smelting Corp - Bogged Down By Impairments

Malaysia Smelting Corp -
Last Price:2.86
Price Target:2.35
Bogged Down By Impairments

Contrary to news reports, the state of subsidiary PT Koba Tin’s CoW extension remains uncertain. The recent spike in tin prices also brings little  cheer,  as  SMELT  is  unable  to  fully  capitalise  on  it.  We  are  also mindful  of  a  potential  impairment  on  its  KM  Resources  (KMR) investment. Thus, we set aside MYR0.50 per share from our 1.0x FY14F P/BV valuation and maintain our SELL call and MYR2.35 FV.

GEO ENERGY RESOURCES In 2 Mine Deals

GEO ENERGY RESOURCES In 2 Mine Deals
Written by The NextInsight Team
Wednesday, 25 September 2013 12:03

GEO ENERGY RESOURCES has just announced two related deals.

Its subsidiary, PT Mitra Nasional Pratama, has entered into a mining services contract with PT Parisma Jaya Abadi (PJA).

Another subsidiary, Geo Coal International, entered into a coal mining cooperation agreement with PJA, which holds mining business permits for 5,000 hectares of land in the Kedung Murung and Lebak Mantan Villages, Kota Bangun and Muara Wis District, Kutai Kartanegara Regency, East Kalimantan Province.

Silverlake : Double-digit growth & 4.5% yield (DBSV)

Silverlake
BUY S$0.715
STI: 3,214.25
Price Target: 12-Month S$0.82 (Prev S$0.80)
Double-digit growth & 4.5% yield

• Existing backlog enough for FY14F revenue
• Pursuing seven deals at the moment, big order win from a Malaysian bank could be a catalyst
• Maintain BUY with revised TP of S$0.82 implying potential returns of over 18%.

Backlog of ~RM325m at the end of FY13 provides 12-month visibility. The backlog contains a mix of licence & project revenue and has been boosted RM40- 50m by acquisitions of Merimen (insurance processing) and Cyber Village (mobile & Internet banking) recently. Both these acquisitions also demonstrate how SILV is expanding its presence from core banking into adjacent sectors. In addition to the backlog, SILV is set to secure a recurring maintenance revenue of ~RM200m (~45% of group revenue) in FY14F.

New World Dept Store : Good yield plus M&A potentials (DBSV)

New World Dept Store
BUY HK$4.02
HSI : 23,210
Price Target : 12-Month HK$4.95
Good yield plus M&A potentials

FY13 core profit up 10% to HK$616m, in line. Final DPS climbed 12% to HK$0.092, lifting full-year DPS by 6% to HK$0.19, at flat payout of 50%.
SSSG reached mid single-digit rate for Jul-Aug 2013 (non-peak), while NWDS’ FY14 target of a mid to high single-digit SSSG reveals confidence on a firm outlook.
Maintains 10-15% CAGR in self-operated retail space for FY12- 16. Will also add 6-8 managed stores in FY14-16 to beef up growth at minimal risks & investments.

Ascott Residence Trust: Eurozone recovery and positive FX movements (OCBC)

Ascott Residence Trust:
Fair value S$1.37
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.089
versus: Current price S$1.230

Eurozone recovery and positive FX movements
• Eurozone is improving
• FX directions should help ART
• Upgrade to BUY

Gradual recovery in the Eurozone should progressively translate into better leasing prospects for ART's European serviced residences. During the 2Q13 analyst briefing, management expressed that it believed that the whole portfolio's RevPAU for 2H13 will be flat or slightly higher than 1H13, assuming that exchange rates stay constant for the rest of the year.

曾淵滄專欄 27.09.13:新世界三年後收成

美股連跌五日,不過也不必太緊張,道指五日的總跌幅也只是2.5%,屬於陰陰跌的走勢,美國聯儲局暫不退市,但遲早會退市,股市已創歷史新高,調整一下是正常的,就借美國國債上限問題調整,我不相信共和黨議員會玩過火,導致奧巴馬真的沒錢花,政府活動停頓。

長假前自貿炒作退燒
前一陣子,內地股市熱炒上海自由貿易區概念,現在,上海自由貿易區在下星期就正式掛牌運作,但至今所有相關條例仍只是市場傳聞,政府未正式公佈任何確實的新政策,那些熱炒的A股已開始冷卻,部份股民擔心夜長夢多,乾脆在國慶長假期前沽貨獲利。

Yangzijiang : Pride of the Yangtze River Delta (CIMB)

Yangzijiang Shipbuilding
Pride of the Yangtze River Delta
OUTPERFORM - Maintained |
S$1.12 -
TP: S$1.25

▊ As fireworks lit the morning sky, YZJ was standing tall as it launched not only its first but also China’s first 10,00 TEU containership. As the Chinese shipbuilding sector consolidates over the next couple of years, YZJ is poised to become the face of the sector, thanks to its proven track record and healthy financial position. We maintain our Outperform rating and target price – still based on 1.4x CY13 P/BV, 1 s.d. below its 5-year mean. Our earnings estimates are also intact. We like YZJ as it is one of the last privately-owned Chinese shipyards with decent profitability. The stock could be catalysed by more shipbuilding orders.

Tat Hong : Too Early To Buy On Australia (MEK)

Tat Hong Holdings
Hold (from Sell)
Share price: SGD1.00
Target price: SGD1.00 (from SGD0.79)
Too Early To Buy On Australia

Downturn to persist, too early to buy. We met with management to assess the outlook on the company’s respective markets. Tat Hong’s core market, Australia, is expected to remain weak on the back of a change in the country’s political leadership, while earnings from China are supported by reasonable growth from nuclear plant construction works. Historically, share price is dependent on Australia activities; therefore, until we see concrete beginnings on Australia’s infrastructure projects, we deem it too early to turn positive on Tat Hong just yet. We raise our TP to SGD1, pegged to 12.3x FY6/14F PER, in line with its 5-year mean and adjust our earnings forecasts by 2%. Upgrade to HOLD.

內地再爆錢荒 中港股跌

【本報訊】內地爆「技術性錢荒」,A股港股走勢再度轉弱。臨近9月季結、加上黃金周在即,有指內地四大行本月首三周人民幣存款大量流失,觸發大水緊,拖累A股大跌近2%,連續三日疲弱,港股受拖累反覆跌0.4%,縱然分析認為6月時的缺水恐慌不會重演,大市長假期之後氣氛或可改善,惟仍有外資基金直言,H股仍未屆抵買水平。

有內地統計指,9月前三周,工、中、建、農四大內銀人民幣存款流走2,020億元,因而促使上海銀行同業拆息(Shibor)期內分別有3%至7%上漲,並指保守估計至少需要逾萬億元的存款回流,才可滿足流動性需要。季結在即,加上臨近「十.一」黃金周,A股昨在水荒下不斷向下走,滬綜指以近全日低位收市,下挫1.9%,深成指更大跌超過2%。

Thursday, September 26, 2013

BDI衝破2000點!景氣現回溫!?



Indonesia scraps Koba Tin's mining permit, company may appeal

Indonesia scraps Koba Tin's mining permit, company may appeal
Posted on 26 September 2013 - 08:34pm

SINGAPORE (Sept 26, 2013): Malaysia Smelting Corp Bhd (MSC), the world's second-biggest tin producer, said the Indonesian government had decided against renewing a permit held by its subsidiary PT Koba Tin to operate a tin mine.

The government, after a review of the concession, decided not to renew the permit, effective retrospectively from Aug 31, 2013 MSC said in a stock market filing on Thursday.

重新谈判租约 双威冀商场租金调涨18%

重新谈判租约 双威冀商场租金调涨18%
Created 09/26/2013 - 09:46
(吉隆坡25日讯)双威产托(Sunreit,5176,主板产业信托股)放眼今年9月起,旗下双威购物中心(SunwayPyramid)大部分租金合约到期并重新谈判后,租金调涨率达16至18%,带动公司收入。

该公司总执行长拿督黄中立在双威产托首届股东常年大会后的记者会上指出,今年9月起,该购物中心达90万平方尺或等于购物中心45%净租赁面积(NLA)的租金合约即将到期,必须更新。

他说,随着双威度假城(Sunway Resort City)新建设基本设施如双威线巴士捷运系统(BRT-Sunway Line)、扩大道路等工程完工后,可带动人潮。

谨慎购地推新盘 置地通用將强劲成长

(吉隆坡25日讯)置地通用(L&G,3174,主板產业股)有信心可在未来3年维持强劲成长。

置地通用2013財政年(截至3月31日止)全年营业额从去年的1亿3079万令吉,按年成长65.4%,至2亿1629万令吉;继而带动税前盈利按年上涨67.4%,至7276万令吉,去年同期为4349万令吉。另外,净利为5717万令吉,较去年同期的3312万令吉,增长72.6%。

该公司董事经理刘毅德表示,「在收购土地方面,我们採取谨慎的態度;加上现有的地库和接下来会推出的项目,我们冀望置地通用可在未来3年保持强劲的成长。」

產业计划支撑 谢氏兄弟营收50%成长

(吉隆坡25日讯)谢氏兄弟机构(SBCCorp,5207,主板產业股)表示,正在进行的產业发展计划以及即將推出的新盘將支撑该公司2014財政年(截至3月31日止)的表现,因此预测公司2014財政年营业额有望成长40%至50%。

谢氏兄弟机构2013財政年全年营业额为1亿2729万令吉,较2012財政年的1亿5298万5000令吉,按年下跌16.8%;不过,其2013財政年全年净利按年成长12.07%,至2675万5000令吉,上一財政年为2387万3000令吉。

谢氏兄弟机构董事经理谢中恆指出,该公司目前未入帐的销售介于2亿1000万至2亿2000万令吉,预料可为该公司净利带来正面贡献。

NEPTUNE ORIENT LINES : NO PEAK SEASON SURPRISE (OCBC)

NEPTUNE ORIENT LINES
Fair value S$0.95
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.00
versus: Current price S$1.13

NO PEAK SEASON SURPRISE
• Freight rates still weak
• An uninspired 2H ahead
• Maintain SELL on the lack of catalysts

Rate hikes fail to sustain
Despite industry wide efforts to push through general rate hikes, freight rates according to the Shanghai Containerised Freight Index show continued softening in Sep instead. Rates on the Asia-Europe and Latin-America trade routes exhibited considerable declines of almost 30% and more than 60%, respectively, so far this year while the rates for the Transpacific trade route has also started to ease. The lone bright spot remains the Intra-Asia route, which has seen freights marginally higher than at the start of the year. This development reaffirms our earlier assertion that 3Q13 is unlikely to yield any positive surprise for Neptune Orient Lines (NOL).

Hi-P International : Prospects Dim (DMG)

Hi-P International
Target Price: SGD0.76
Price: SGD0.73
Prospects Dim

Following Blackberry’s dismal results guidance and Apple’s disappointing pricing for its iPhone 5c, we are now less positive on Hi-P International (HIP)’s outlook for 4Q13 and beyond and thus, lower our earnings forecasts accordingly. We downgrade the stock to NEUTRAL and trim our TP to SGD0.76, based on a blended 13.5x FY13/14 P/E, -1 SD from its three-year historical forward P/E.

Marco Polo Marine Yard Visit: Preparing For An Upturn (DMG)

Marco Polo Marine
Target Price: SGD0.61
Price: SGD0.38
Yard Visit: Preparing For An Upturn

Last week, we brought a group of investors to MPM’s Batam yard. We saw all three drydocks busy with repair operations, and the construction of a third-party 8,000bhp AHTS vessel and two similar vessels for its own fleet. In preparation for better shipbuilding times, a new slipway is almost complete. Investors were most interested in the company’s 20% net margins. We maintain our BUY call, SGD0.61 TP.

曾淵滄專欄 26.09.13:醫藥股小注博無妨

股市在沒有新的消息之下失去方向,昨日恒指波幅不大,微升30點;兩隻新股上市,一升一跌,如果兩隻新股都買一手,要蝕130元另加佣金與印花稅,看來新股也不容易玩。

市場水浸 新股旺場
不過,市場資金充裕,抽新股者依然很多,昨日又一隻新股超額認購310倍,凍資543億元,排隊上市的新股也很多,恒指由6月上升至今,升幅約4,000點,股民信心大增,新股也自然大量湧現,也許大家可以再次考慮港交所(388)這隻股份了,就算阿里巴巴不來香港上市,我估計港交所今年的業績也不錯。

First Resources : Top Of The League (UOBKH)

First Resources
Share Price S$1.88
Target Price S$2.40
Top Of The League

We are confident that First Resources is on track to deliver a good set of numbers for 2H13. Besides the better-then-peers ASP, FFB yield has showed good recovery to deliver better upstream profit in 2H13. Downstream operations are getting competitive as new capacities come on-stream but the impact on FR is mitigated by a timely switch to biodiesel production as EU demand returns. Maintain BUY. Target price: S$2.40.

Keppel T&T : Growth from within (CIMB)

Keppel T&T  
Growth from within
Current S$1.39
Target S$1.65
OUTPERFORM - Maintained

▊ Keppel T&T has been aggressively expanding its core operations, with four new logistics facilities and a third data centre slated to open in FY14-15. These projects will allow the company’s earnings profile to rely more on its core businesses and less on its investment in M1. We factor in contributions from the new logistics parks in China and Singapore, which raises FY13-15 EPS by 2-6%. Our SOP-based target price inches up to S$1.65. We maintain our Outperform call, with new logistics facilities and data centre additions as catalysts.

中海油重奪非洲項目

中海油重奪非洲項目

【本報訊】中海油(883)海外併購停不了,據外電報道,繼斥資逾千億收購尼克森(Nexen)後,中海油昨日以20億美元重奪非洲烏干達石油生產牌照。

據烏干達能源及礦產部長Peter Lokeris表示,中海油所擁有的Kingfisher地區原油儲量高達6.35億桶。

涉資156億
中海油收購烏干達油氣資產可謂幾經波折,中海油去年初已宣佈,完成以14.67億美元(約114.43億港元)收購於非洲烏干達價值油氣資產,其中包括3A區塊中新Kanywataba勘探許可證及由原3A區塊Kingfisher發現轉為生產許可證。

Wednesday, September 25, 2013

金群利集团 地价重估产值上修

金群利集团 地价重估产值上修
Created 09/25/2013 - 10:47
目标价:3.40令吉

最新进展

投资者看好金群利集团(MATRIX,5236,主板产业股)的增长能力、股息和净现金流,公司股价过去一周暴涨10%。

该公司盈利展望强劲,未入账销售目前高达3亿6200万令吉,坐落在芙蓉的资产表现不错,当地产业价格持稳。

玉楼金阙:杨忠礼电力私有化前奏?•陈金阙

玉楼金阙:杨忠礼电力私有化前奏?•陈金阙
Created 09/25/2013 - 09:55
自2002以来,杨忠礼电力(YTLPWR)收购了英国韦塞水供(Wessex Water)以后,我们看到营业额涨了一倍。

随着韦塞水供的贡献进来,其债务逐年减轻,强劲的盈利开始浮现。

就算它在2004年将股票一拆为二,依然掩盖不到盈利翻倍的事实。

这种现象一直延续到2008年。这一年,金融风暴又再来袭。

联储局不缩减QE规模令股市上涨,接下来会如何?

联储局不缩减QE规模令股市上涨,接下来会如何?
文: 林伟杰 (译:杨佳文) 2013年09月24日 展望
由于美国联邦储备局在上周出人意料地维持其每月购买的债券数额,加上劳伦斯·萨默斯(Lawrence Summers)不角逐联储局主席一职,亚洲股市因此上涨。

图表1:各大指数在过去两周的表现




MK Land to see 2% revenue boost from Ombak Villa

MK Land to see 2% revenue boost from Ombak Villa
Posted on 25 September 2013 - 05:40am
Premalatha Jayaraman
sunbiz@thesundaily.com

PETALING JAYA (Sept 25, 2013): MK Land Holdings Bhd is targeting another 2% contribution to revenue from its hotels and resort division, with the launch of its latest product Ombak Villa at the Langkawi Lagoon Resort, said its hotels and resorts group general manager Azahar Ahmad.

The division currently contributes about 5% to the group's revenue.

“We are targeting another 2% contribution within two years of operation. The first phase of the villa started its operation in May this year during the Langkawi International Maritime and Aerospace Exhibition (LIMA). We received good response after starting operations,” Azahar told a media briefing on Ombak Villa here yesterday.

中国船厂的订单增加,主要落入大船厂手中

中国船厂的订单增加,主要落入大船厂手中
文: 汤森路透 (译:杨佳文) 2013年09月23日 展望
中国造船业者取得的订单数量超越韩国和日本,在今年重返全球第一位,但这些订单主要落入大型船厂手中。这样的情况可能预示了中国造船业将来的变化。

虽然中国造船业者本年至今取得的订单超越了2012年全年的订单总数,但在中国逾1,600个船厂当中,只有4%的船厂取得新合约。

大部分取得新合约的造船业者,都获得两家负责执行政府开支计划和促进贸易发展的银行支持,令人怀疑政府利用这两家银行来推动造船业的整合。

魯賓尼:金價將低見1,000美元

【本報綜合報道】美國最新經濟數據參差,加上繼續有聯儲局官員發表模稜兩可的退市言論,美股昨日早段偏軟。開市後1小時(約香港晚上10時30分),道指跌14點,報15386點,標普500指數報1698點,跌3點。納指報3766點,升1點。

紐約聯儲銀行行長杜德利接受CNBC訪問時指,若美國經濟表現符合儲局預測,儲局年底退市機會大,但最終仍取決於經濟,較聖路易斯聯儲銀行行長布拉德上周五指儲局可能下月退市的立場溫和。分析員指,儲局官員發表不同的退市立場,令市場無所適從,不利投資氣氛。

另外,有新末日博士之稱的魯賓尼認為,較其他領先經濟體系,美國的基本因素仍然較佳,生產力及科技增長,及儲局持續放水是美國的優勢,他預期儲局即將會減少買債規模,並於2015年起減息。他表示會增持美股,及看好美元呈強。

PT Timah sees recovery in tin exports

PT Timah sees recovery in tin exports

PANGKALPINANG: Shipments by Indonesia’s biggest tin exporter are likely to fall about 10% this year due to new rules on domestic trading, the head of state-run PT Timah said, though deliveries are expected to begin returning to normal from next month.

The firm, which has a huge mining concession in the tin-producing region of Bangka-Belitung, slashed shipments from Aug 30 after declaring force majeure because of disruption from the rules aimed at establishing a benchmark price in Indonesia.

黑莓手機時代告終 366億元賣盤 淡出消費市場

黑莓手機時代告終 366億元賣盤 淡出消費市場

【本報綜合報道】黑莓(BlackBerry)憑着手感十足的實體鍵盤及「Push Mail」電郵收發功能,曾俘虜一眾商務和行政人員用家。惟隨着iPhone及Android智能手機搶佔市場,令黑莓手機業務每況愈下。黑莓前日宣佈與Fairfax Financial為首的財團簽訂意向,同意以47億美元(約366億港元)將公司私有化,是繼愛立信、摩托羅拉及諾基亞後,另一個沒落的著名手機品牌。

繼月初微軟以逾70億美元收購諾基亞的手機業務後,黑莓再步其後塵,於周一宣佈賣盤方案。黑莓與持有集團一成股權的加拿大保險公司Fairfax Financial為首財團簽訂意向,初步同意以47億美元或每股9美元的現金,收購黑莓餘下九成股權。較黑莓周一收市價8.82美元溢價2%。黑莓未來六周有權接受其他競購要約,於11月4日截標。

Rex International - An edge in exploratory drilling? ( JP Morgan)

Rex International -
S$ 0.925, September 23, 2013
An edge in exploratory drilling?

We recently met up with the management team of Rex International (CEO, Mans Lidgren and COO, Kristofer Skantze). Rex International Holdings (RIH) is an independent oil and gas exploration and production (E&P) company having 15 concessions (10 at time of IPO in July’13) in USA (2), Middle East (4), Norway(6) and Trinidad and Tobago (3) through various joint venture vehicles. Its parent company, Rex Partners, claims to own proprietary and innovative exploration technologies called “Rex Technologies” that mitigates exploration risks and reduces cost of exploration, which RIH has access to and enjoys right to first refusal in all global territories except certain locations.

First Real Estate Investment Trust : Impressive Assets on Hand (VR)

First Real Estate Investment Trust
Increase Exposure
Impressive Assets on Hand
 Intrinsic Value S$1.44
 Prev Closing Price S$1.09

 We were left impressed following our recent visit to five of First Real Estate Investment Trust (First REIT) assets due to the following factors: 1) all the assets are strategically located along key toll roads or in the middle of the CBD for easy accessibility, 2) assets with longer operating history are properly maintained and have utilization rates of 75+% which suggest the possibility of AEI and hence higher future DPU and 3) newer hospitals were equipped with high-end machines from Philips, Siemens and Varian. Their buildings are also network integrated and are capable of sending information across different levels and departments. Such facilities are seldom seen in Indonesia.

Overseas Education : Defensive education play (AM)

Overseas Education Limited -
LAST CLOSE: S$0.755
FAIR VALUE: S$1.16
Defensive education play

 We are initiating coverage on Overseas Education Limited (OEL) with a BUY rating and a target price (TP) of $1.16. The defensive education play sparkles amidst volatile  investment performances in the climate of macroeconomic uncertainty. OEL is the holding company of Overseas Family School (OFS), a key player in the foreign system schools (FSS) industry with a 10% market share.

Genting Singapore : Stock is now pricing in more realistic earnings estimates at undemanding valuations (Nomura)

Genting Singapore
Target price Increased from 1.23 SGD 1.52
Closing price September 20, 2013 SGD 1.45
Stock is now pricing in more realistic earnings estimates at undemanding valuations

Action: Upgrade to Neutral; Street expectations more realistic
Following a 40% cut in street FY13F EBITDA estimates since 2012, we feel that our revised FY13/14F EBITDA estimates of S$1.26bn/1.4bn are a much more realistic assessment of Singapore’s baseline gaming revenue potential, taking into account a volatile win % and seasonal fluctuations. With Singapore tourist arrivals moderating to single digits (YTD arrivals up 8% y-y), and this being reflected in Sentosa traffic, we forecast a mid-high single digit growth in RWS’s top-line. We argue that our and consensus earnings have limited downside risks now, and this should support the share price at current levels. We tweak our FY13F/14F EBITDA estimates by -7%/+5% to build in a weak performance in 1Q13F due to a lower win rate. However, we now value GENS at mid-cycle, as we no longer see a reason for it to trade at a discount given limited earnings downside. We raise GENS to Neutral, with a TP of S$1.52/share (5% upside).

曾淵滄專欄 25.09.13:港股發圍要靠A股

華爾街大鱷炒完聯儲局退市遊戲後,轉炒美國國債最高限額爭拗。奧巴馬不斷花錢,共和黨控制的眾議院則嚴限白宮發行國債的上限,每次談判,增加一點點,每隔一段時間,奧巴馬就得去求眾議院裏共和黨的大佬,不過,華爾街的大鱷似乎是站在奧巴馬這一邊,每逢白宮面臨國債上限時,美股必跌,華爾街以美股下跌來逼共和黨放水,共和黨真不放水,大家都難有運行。

對港股而言,美國何時退市已不重要,中國股市走勢、三中全會才重要。

股神畢菲特說,美股已經不再是非常便宜,因此,要靠美股狂炒狂升來帶動港股也是困難的,今後港股的上升,只能靠中國股市了。

REITS : Hold Out For a Better Timing (RHB)

Although the US Fed’s decision to retain QE3 may give REITs some short-term relief as bond yields are expected to drop in the near-term, medium-term caution lingers over the actual date of tapering. On a relative basis, we see better value in SREITs owing to the larger spread and Singapore’s stronger economic fundamentals.

 OVERWEIGHTSREITs and UNDERWEIGHT MREITs.
• Short-term relief. As the US Federal Reserve (US Fed) maintains its QE or bond buying programme, the REITs sector will experience shortterm relief, as bond yields are expected to ease over the near-term.

Tuesday, September 24, 2013

Fed’s Surprise Non-Tapering Lifts Markets. What’s Next?

23 SEPTEMBER 2013
Fed’s Surprise Non-Tapering Lifts Markets. What’s Next?
By Ernest Lim

Asian stocks rallied as the Fed unexpectedly refrained from tapering and as Lawrence Summers withdrew himself as a candidate to be the next Federal Reserve chairman. (See Table 1 for the indices’ performance over the past two weeks)

able 1: Indices’ Performance Over The Past Two Weeks
Source: Bloomberg; Ernest’s compilations

兩年表現褒貶不一‧星報可續派高息

兩年表現褒貶不一‧星報可續派高息
Created 09/24/2013 - 17:30
(吉隆坡24日訊)市場對星報出版(S T A R,6084,主板貿服組)今明兩年業務表現褒貶不一;不過,市場分析員卻一致同意,該公司仍有能力派高息,保持其高息股地位。

大眾研究指出,星報出版在過去兩年進行重組,主要專注成長為綜合媒體平台。該行看好其成長計劃,特別是在保住印刷媒體之余,也進軍非印刷媒體領域。它的本益比僅為10倍,相信它值得更高本益比。

該公司在2014年淨現金料達2億9千500萬令吉,預料派發更多股息。

高美達新計劃推高全年銷售

高美達新計劃推高全年銷售
Created 09/24/2013 - 17:30
(吉隆坡24日訊)高美達(GLOMAC,5020,主板產業組)2014財政年首季業績表現符合預期,分析員認為,該公司一旦開始推出新產業計劃,可達成其全年銷售額目標,因此維持財測。

該公司首季淨利從前期的2千100萬令吉揚14.9%至2千410萬令吉。馬銀行研究指出,該公司淨利成長主要歸功於有地與商業產業計劃如Lakeside Residence與高美達賽城賺幅提高,促使營運賺幅走高。

2014年擬推13.8億產業計劃

攫取合約動力大‧睦興旺後市看俏

攫取合約動力大‧睦興旺後市看俏
Created 09/24/2013 - 17:30
(吉隆坡24日訊)睦興旺工程(MUHIBAH,5703,主板建筑組)將從建築訂單擴充攫取更多工程計劃,同時也有望獲其他國油合約,而黃氏唯高達研究稱,該公司目前是估值最低的油氣領域相關股項,因此是累積買進的機會。

黃氏唯高達披露,自曼德勒機場特許經營競標計劃蒙損與提煉及石油化學綜合發展計劃(RAPID)遭展延後,該公司股價即從其高峰下滑17%。

4 因素牵引末季表现 金融市场恐掀10月风暴

4 因素牵引末季表现 金融市场恐掀10月风暴
Created 09/24/2013 - 10:50
(台北23日讯)全球金融市场在迈入第4季之际,将受到美国府会预算争议、美联储量化宽松(QE)动向、中东问题以及德国大选等四大因素的牵引,投资者必须有心理准备,可能会面临行情急剧波动的局面,甚至可能会遭遇一场10月风暴。

《工商时报》报道,美国府会间的预算争议可能是影响最大的变数,美联储主席伯南克上周就警告府会的举债上限相关争议,将会拖累美国经济的复苏,这也是伯南克上周决定维持QE规模不变的主因之一。

强制出口商国内交易 印尼欲推高锡价25%

强制出口商国内交易 印尼欲推高锡价25%
Created 09/24/2013 - 10:52
(雅加达23日讯)印尼一位监管官员指出,该国希望其锡价从当前水平提高最多25%。

数周前,这个全球最大的锡供应国强制规定出口商必须在国内交易所进行交易。

印尼商品期货交易监管局局长苏特里约诺艾迪上周五对路透社说:“通过实施锡交易新规,我们的目标是今年锡价区间达到每吨2.5至2.9万美元。”

Boost for direct selling firms, Zhulian and Amway trading near or at all-time high

Updated: Tuesday September 24, 2013 MYT 7:36:23 AM
Boost for direct selling firms, Zhulian and Amway trading near or at all-time high

PETALING JAYA: Direct selling companies could be in a renewed uptrend phase with further interest to their stocks coming from recent corporate developments and changing consumer lifesyle factors.

Some of these companies’ shares such as Zhulian Corp Bhd and Amway (M) Holdings Bhd are trading near or at their all-time highs as top and bottom line earnings continued to grow.

Other smaller companies by market capitalisation such as Hai-O Enterpreise Bhd and little known CNI Holdings Bhd may ride on increased investor optimism.

Nera Telecommunications :Dial in for dividends (CIMB)

Nera Telecommunications Ltd
Dial in for dividends
NERT.SI | S$0.74

 NeraTel is poised to benefit from the increased demand for networking equipment given its regional presence and extensive product offerings. Its attractive dividend yields and net cash pile point to limited share price downside. That said, the market may have priced in all the recent good news on NeraTel. Using a dividend discount model, we estimate that NeraTel could be worth S$0.74 (constant dividends of S$0.04 and cost of equity of 5.4%). We expect DPS of 6 Scts for FY13 and 4 Scts for FY14-15, translating into yields of about 8% and 5.5%, respectively.

Starhill Global REIT : Building Sustainability For The Long Term (UOBKH)

Starhill Global REIT
Share Price S$0.785
Target Price S$0.930
Building Sustainability For The Long Term; Upgrade To BUY

Starhill Global REIT is building sustainability for the long term, having successfully secured refinancing at attractive rates (2.4%) while growth momentum remains intact with rental reversions secured. Further upside potential could come from acquisitions and asset enhancements. Upgrade to BUY (from HOLD), as valuations are attractive relative to peers, with a marginally higher target price of S$0.93 (from S$0.92) based on DDM.

Yangzijiang Shipbuilding: Beating the odds

Yangzijiang Shipbuilding:
BUY S$1.065
STI : 3,214.25
Price Target : 12-Month S$ 1.32 (Prev S$ 1.22)

•Launching the first 10k TEU containership on schedule
•Raise FY14F earnings on better margins and order wins; FY15F earnings to benefit from property income
•Investment segment is well managed
•Best proxy to shipbuilding recovery in China; maintain BUY on higher TP of S$1.32

Hyflux: Time to look for other projects (OCBC)

Hyflux:
Fair value S$1.22
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.030
versus: Current price S$1.195

Time to look for other projects
• Tuaspring completed
• Focus back on MENA
• Contract wins will be next catalyst

Hyflux Ltd has officially launched Singapore’s second and largest reverse osmosis (SWRO) desalination plant on 18 Sep. According to management, the desalination plant is not only a showcase of its membrane technology but also strengthens Hyflux’s

曾淵滄專欄 24.09.13:城鎮化炒起兩板塊

上星期,美國聯儲局不退市,美股急升一天之後就連跌兩天,對昨日的港股自然帶來巨大壓力,幸好A股中秋假期後上升,對港股帶來支持,港股總算是跌幅溫和,恒指昨日收市僅跌0.56%。

美國聯儲局不退市,中國人民銀行暫時未有行動,我比較擔心的是,在美國不退市前提下,中國會傾向收緊銀根,再推宏觀調控,昨日A股上升,很可能是在炒三中全會的概念,而市場亦已有三中全會的消息。

三中全會肯定會談城鎮化大計,阻力不小,但城鎮化是習近平「中國夢」的主要內容,我相信他會排除萬難,推動城鎮化。我也相信A股會比港股更早炒作城鎮化概念。

Rex International : Game changer in the making (DBSV)

Rex International Holding;
BUY (Initiating Coverage) S$0.85; B
Game changer in the making;
Price Target : 12-Month S$ 1.27;

•Independent E&P player armed with potentially revolutionary exploration technology
•First mover advantage in “seeing” oil gives it a head start in cherry picking attractive licences
•Potential multi-bagger as it buys assets cheap and spins off successful discoveries
•Initiate with BUY and S$1.27 TP; catalysts to come from licence adds, oil hits

More than your average independent oil & gas E&P company. Rex International Holding (RIH) will have access to proprietary oil & gas exploration technologies, including Rex Virtual Drilling (VD), which uses resonance frequency theory to

Monday, September 23, 2013

启动伊斯兰债券计划 OCK增添电讯塔

(吉隆坡23日讯)OCK集团(OCK,0172,创业板)启动总值1亿5000万令吉的伊斯兰债券(Sukuk)计划,料將在2至3年內提升旗下电讯塔资產的数量,以受惠于即將在大马大肆展开的长期演进技术(LTE,通称4G)发展活动。

OCK集团目前在全国范围拥有60座电讯塔,並將利用伊斯兰债券计划的融资所得,逐步通过建设或收购的方式,提升电讯塔数量。

该集团首席执行员黄真焜表示,目前仍难以估计实际即將增加的电讯塔数量,因该集团將根据电讯业者的需求,才採取行动。

Pre-Budget Property, sin sectors likely hit by Budget 2014

Pre-Budget Property, sin sectors likely hit by Budget 2014
Business & Markets 2013
Written by Cynthia Blemin of theedgemalaysia.com    
Monday, 23 September 2013 12:47

KUALA LUMPUR (Sept 23): The property and sin sectors are likely to be losers in the much-anticipated Budget 2014 on October 25.

Apart from fiscal reforms and rolling out the goods and services tax (GST), property-cooling measures and affordable housing initiatives are among the strategies to be lay out during the budget, said a research house.

“We expect the sin sectors, namely brewery and tobacco, to be hit by higher excise duties in the upcoming budget,” said CIMB Group Holdings Bhd's chief economist Lee Heng Guie in a note today.

OCK Group launches RM150 MLN Sukuk programme

OCK Group launches RM150 MLN Sukuk programme
Business & Markets 2013
Written by Bernama    
Monday, 23 September 2013 15:51

KUALA LUMPUR (Sept 23): OCK Group Bhd, which launched its RM150 million Sukuk programme today, intends to utilise the proceeds to execute expansion plans for its telecommunications network services segment.

OCK Group, a local telecommunications network services company, plans to build and acquire more telecommunication towers going forward.

中国崛起驱动全球经济 人民币时代来临?

中国崛起驱动全球经济 人民币时代来临?
Created 09/23/2013 - 12:28
拥有13亿人口的中国,近年来经济崛起,成为亚洲的主要投资地,不少人更期盼,中国有朝一日将能与欧美等发达国家并驾齐驱,主宰全球经济。

在中国的快速发展下,人民币的角色也愈趋重要,中国政府更是不断推动人民币政策,包括批准合格境外机构投资者(QFII)、推广人民币离岸中心等等,借以塑造人民币在国际的影响力。

大型發展推遲‧房市熱度下降?

大型發展推遲‧房市熱度下降?
Created 09/22/2013 - 14:52
前言:

近年來,政府財赤保持偏高,一些大型的發展計劃將宣告展延,據估計,大約863億5千萬令吉的鐵路與建築計劃將延後或完全擱置;不過,這一數據不包括兩項大型的計劃,分別是耗資100億令吉的興建2千兆瓦燒煤廠,以及國家石油公司位於柔佛邊佳蘭的627億令吉石油化學綜合發展計劃。

展延計劃影響投資信心

分析員認為:“雖然政府在建築領域扮演的角色比較不顯著,可是,展延主要計劃的發展,也會影響投資者的信心。”

BIG SPENDER:黃國英 還是真金好

BIG SPENDER:黃國英 還是真金好

2008年金融海嘯,股票價格大跌,豐盛金融資產管理董事黃國英驚覺自己投資組合中,包括物業的固定資產僅佔約一成,翌年開始積極投入買金銀幣。至今,金銀幣為黃國英的身家在賬面上賺了三成,價值佔投資組合約15%。為了是次訪問,黃國英從保險箱拿出來的十多套金銀幣,已值數百萬元,足夠買一個細單位。但他買金銀幣不是純為投資增值,是因為有實質資產在手,讓自己安心之餘,還可欣賞每個幣上的圖案。財經界內,喜歡收藏實金的還有招商證券貴金屬亞洲主管張強生,他將首次獲得的部份花紅買了金元寶,逾三十年收藏的黃金見證多年工作成果。

Singapore Press Holdings : Deflated dividend expectations (CIMB)

Singapore Press Holdings
Current S$4.09
Target S$4.08
Deflated dividend expectations

 SPH’s FY13 dividends could fall short of FY12’s 24 cents due to weak ad revenue and the loss of 30% of its property earnings. But one should not be negative on SPH as the S$757m raised from SPH REIT should compensate if management successfully develops new retail malls.

We reduce FY13-15 EPS by 2-13% for weaker ad revenues and the 30% fall in property earnings following the injection of two assets into the REIT. SPH remains a Neutral as potential dividend headwinds are balanced by S$757m cash proceeds that management is looking to deploy. Our SOP target price falls due to the payout of the 18 ct special dividend and a lower value for the core media operations after the EPS cuts.

RIVERSTONE: Ramping Up Production Capacity Massively In Taiping

RIVERSTONE: Ramping Up Production Capacity Massively In Taiping
Written by Leong Chan Teik
Sunday, 22 September 2013 12:34

IN LESS THAN a year from now, this site (picture) in Taiping, Malaysia will be transformed into a highly-automated sprawling factory producing gloves chiefly for workers in the healthcare industry globally.

Singapore-listed Riverstone Holdings will unveil in due course details of the production capacity increases and the various phases.

XMH: Unaffected By Soft Coal Prices And Rupiah Slide

XMH: Unaffected By Soft Coal Prices And Rupiah Slide
Written by Sim Kih
Friday, 20 September 2013 12:00

XMH HOLDINGS’ revenue is driven by demand for vessels that transport Indonesia’s coal, but the distributor of imported diesel engines, propulsion and power generating solutions is unaffected by soft coal prices and the Indonesian rupiah’s recent slide.

“Our main product is the main engine used in tugs and workboats transporting coal. China’s import demand for Indonesian coal remains strong,” said executive director Sam Chua during a recent 1Q2014 results briefing.

Five Facts CapitaMall Trust’s Investors Need To Know

Five Facts CapitaMall Trust’s Investors Need To Know
By Ser Jing Chong - September 17, 2013

CapitaMall Trust (SGX: C38U), a subsidiary of shopping mall developer and owner CapitaMalls Asia (SGX: JS8), is a real estate investment trust (REIT) that specialises in owning retail malls in Singapore.

It is part of the Straits Times Index (SGX: ^STI) and is the only REIT within the index’s 30 components. In addition, it also holds the distinction of being Singapore’s largest REIT by both asset size and market capitalisation (as of 11 Sep 2013).

PSR Coverage – Deep Value Play (Phillip)

PSR Coverage – Deep Value Play
We introduce three stocks, which forms our Deep Value Play list. We think that the market has not realized the fair value of these stocks. Current share price presents significant upside potential.

#1: Amara Holdings – Trading at > 50% disc to RNAV
Amara (Buy, TP: S$0.74) engages mainly in two business areas; Hotel (development and management) and Residential (Development and Sales).

PSR Coverage – SG Top Picks (Phillip)

PSR Coverage – SG Top Picks
We have removed Singapore Exchange and Pan United from our top pick list and replaced it with DBS Group and SingTel. With increasingly positive economic data from the major economies (US, China, Japan and Eurozone), we think that big caps will stand to benefit most in the near term, thus our change in focus.

曾淵滄專欄 23.09.13:10月退市機會不大

美國聯儲局出人意料沒退市,我早前撰文說,希望儲局在9月退市,讓市場計算退市的影響,若9月份不退市,市場就會開始擔心10月、12月會不會退市。聯儲局議息公佈前一天,我說如果不退市,不要高興得太早,要留意中國人民銀行的反應。聯儲局終於決定不退市,上述的兩項因素大家的確要考慮。

香港中秋節過後假期,美國股民則已開始擔憂10月會不會退市,9月19、20日一連兩天,美股回落,道指跌低過聯儲局宣佈不退市前的水平,多位聯儲局官員出來說三道四,有人支持不退市,有人反對不退市,看來這一次會議,內部爭論激烈,因此股民擔心10月退市是正常的。

Nam Cheong: Eyes Lucrative Indonesian Charter Market (DMG)

Nam Cheong: Eyes Lucrative Indonesian Charter Market
 (BUY, SGD0.28, TP: SGD0.38)

NCL said it has entered into a JV with PT Bahtera Niaga Internasional to own and operate OSVs in the lucrative Indonesian market. This will boost its high-margin recurring charter income, thus providing a new source of orders and shipbuilding profits. NCL remains one of our Top Picks in the O&G sector, which we have upgraded to OVERWEIGHT. Maintain BUY, with a higher SGD0.38 TP.

Courts Asia :Softening Consumer Sentiment Priced In (MKE)

Courts Asia
Buy (unchanged)
Share price: SGD0.75
Target price: SGD1.15 (from SGD1.49)
Softening Consumer Sentiment Priced In

Cut TP to SGD1.15. Courts Asia has seen its share price slump 24% in the past three months, vs 15% for its regional peers. Its share price is now 3% below the IPO price. In our view, Courts has been made a punching bag due to weakening consumer sentiment and rising concerns over household debt in ASEAN, particularly among the lower-income earners, as investors have ignored its proactive approach to tighten credit approvals since 4QFY3/13. Mindful that retail spending may be softening and the temporary closure of GEM store; we lower our FY3/14F-16F earnings estimates by 8- 15% and cut our TP to SGD1.15, pegged at a lower multiple of 14x (previously 16x).

F & N : Value uncapped (DBSV)

Fraser and Neave,
BUY S$5.55
STI: 3,251.78
(Upgrade from HOLD)
Price Target: 12-Month S$6.50 (Prev S$9.52)
Value uncapped

• Upgrade to BUY, as shareholders’ value is unlocked through dividend-in-specie/listing FCL
• Outcome of MBL’s arbitration uncertain, but impact on RNAV is low, at 2.5% in our worst case scenario
• Current market price implies above average 47% RNAV discount, despite FCL’s established position
• TP adjusted to S$6.50. Buy for potential 20% total return upside

Sunday, September 22, 2013

羅傑斯唱淡金價 「將見900美元」

羅傑斯唱淡金價 「將見900美元」
2013年9月21日
【明報專訊】美國聯儲局暫不退市消息刺激金價周四(19日)強勢反彈,收盤至每盎司1369.3美元。不過,知名商品投資大師羅傑斯(Jim Rogers)則認為,金價「很有可能」跌回900美元。

國際黃金價格周四升4.7%,錄得4年半以來最大漲幅。但羅傑斯19日接受美國雅虎財經訪問時,直言黃金已經失去其作為避風港的光環,警告金價將在1、2年內將大跌至900或1000美元。

長遠可重返1900美元

儘管短期不樂觀,對於金價長期走勢,羅傑斯的預估卻與眾不同。他相信金價最終將遠遠超出1900美元,回2011年9月時1920美元的史上最高價位。他解釋這全拜「全球貨幣巨幅貶值」所賜。

汇华产业4 大理由支撑 北马产业还可旺足7年

汇华产业4 大理由支撑 北马产业还可旺足7年
Created 09/22/2013 - 09:01
(槟城21日讯)汇华产业(HUNZPTY,5018,主板产业股)反驳北马产业市场不如中南马的论调,更点出4大理由,认为北马的房市更有优势。

汇华产业集团主席拿督许廷忠说,槟城当地房屋市场将可再兴旺至少5至7年,这主要归功于以下4大理由:1)房屋需求极高;2)供需平衡,不像巴生谷及柔南地区供过于求;3)槟州人均收入提升;4)槟州政府正积极将槟城打造成国际城市。

因此,他看好槟城未来的政策及领导方向,将更有助于房市发展,令槟城的房市更具优势。

许廷忠指出,比较全马各地的房产市况,北马始终较中马和南马来得更具优势,因为中南马一带均有各自的隐忧。

曾淵滄博士:《美國退市 人民幣仍能持續強勢》



Marc Faber: We Are in `QE Unlimited'



Jim Rogers: If gold goes under $1K, I will buy



QE退場面面觃



蘋果神話不再了嗎



Charlie Munger: Lessons From an Investing Giant

August 30, 2013, 5:19 p.m. ET
Charlie Munger: Lessons From an Investing Giant
Warren Buffett's right-hand man is brilliant in his own right.

BY JASON ZWEIG

One of the least appreciated virtues in investing is courage.

Filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission in March and again this month show the extraordinary gumption of Charlie Munger, Warren Buffett's business partner and vice chairman of Berkshire Hathaway.
Warren E. Buffett(沃伦•巴菲特)
Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful
别人贪婪时我恐惧, 别人恐惧时我贪婪
投资只需学好两门课: 一,是如何给企业估值,二,是如何看待股市波动
吉姆·罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)
“错过时机”胜于“搞错对象”:不会全军覆没!”
做自己熟悉的事,等到发现大好机会才投钱下去

乔治·索罗斯(George Soros)

“犯错误并没有什么好羞耻的,只有知错不改才是耻辱。”

如果操作过量,即使对市场判断正确,仍会一败涂地。

李驰(中国巴菲特)
高估期间, 卖对, 不卖也对, 买是错的。
低估期间, 买对, 不买也是对, 卖是错的。

Tan Teng Boo


There’s no such thing as defensive stocks.Every stock can be defensive depending on what price you pay for it and what value you get,
冷眼(冯时能)投资概念
“买股票就是买公司的股份,买股份就是与陌生人合股做生意”。
合股做生意,则公司股份的业绩高于一切,而股票的价值决定于盈利。
价值是本,价格是末,故公司比股市重要百倍。
曹仁超-香港股神/港股明灯
1.有智慧,不如趁势
2.止损不止盈
成功者所以成功,是因为不怕失败!失败者所以失败,是失败后不再尝试!
曾淵滄-散户明灯
每逢灾难就是机会,而是在灾难发生时贱价买股票,然后放在一边,耐性地等灾难结束
  • Selected Indexes 52 week range

  • Margin of Safety

    Investment Clock

    World's First Interactive Investment Clock