Saturday, September 21, 2013

恐失礦場經營權‧馬熔錫或尋國際仲裁

恐失礦場經營權‧馬熔錫或尋國際仲裁
Created 09/21/2013 - 09:53
(吉隆坡20日訊)馬熔錫機構(MSC,5916,主板工業產品組)印尼礦場特許經營權恐不獲印尼政府延長,甚至面臨遭政府企業接手厄運,公司將在最糟情況下選擇將有關糾紛訴諸國際仲裁。

或遭政府企業接手

該公司首席執行員拿督斯里莫哈末安努亞在接受《路透社》專訪時表示,協議條款已授予子公司-PT Koba Tin獲得延長經營權10年至2023年的權利,因此作為顯著的外國投資者,集團要求獲得印尼政府合理對待。

准备,抢滩旧巴生路

准备,抢滩旧巴生路
Created 09/20/2013 - 15:42
当地皮价格犹如火箭般迅速飞驰时,房价肯定与之同步飙涨,因而让很多购屋者望尘莫及。

经过多年来的蓬勃发展,原本被视为吉隆坡郊区的蕉赖、甲洞及怡保路等等,已经发展成熟,只有旧巴生路仍停留在20年前,没有什么变动……直至最近几年。

假如,你还认为这里是中低社区,假如你还以为这里的房产没多大作为,你可能已经失去先机,因为这里已经成为投资竞相抢滩的旺区。

Hunza eyes RM1.4bil revenue from 3 mixed developments

GEORGE TOWN: Hunza Properties Bhd expects about RM1.4bil in revenue from its three mixed development projects in Tanjung Bungah, Seberang Perai and Kepala Batas over the next three years.

Executive chairman Datuk Khor Teng Tong said Hunza would be focusing on its key property market in the northern region where the group has about 364.2ha of landbank.

He said these three projects – Alila 2 in Tanjung Bungah, the Juru projects in Seberang Perai and Bandar Putra Bertam in Kepala Batas – would contribute significantly to the group’s revenue over the next three years.

修改商托計劃‧成功多多褒貶參半

修改商托計劃‧成功多多褒貶參半
Created 09/20/2013 - 17:15
(吉隆坡20日訊)成功多多(BJTOTO,1562,主板貿服組)修改成功商托上市計劃,分析員褒貶參半,成功多多股東能直接持有成功商托、成功商托在馬股次級上市雖能避過成功多多的拋壓,但特別股息自45仙銳減到15仙卻也降低了計劃魅力。

恐難逃盈利
股息走低

更重要的是,計劃的修改始終無法避免投資者轉向直接投資成功商托的“競食效應”,成功多多未來恐難逃盈利和股息雙雙走低宿命。

Falling yield not a worrying trend

Falling yield not a worrying trend

BY LIZ LEE

RETAIL properties in the Klang Valley may be recording a falling yield but the numbers were not worrying, according to industry observers. However, the downtrend seems likely to stay.

C H Williams Talhar & Wong Sdn Bhd managing director Foo Gee Jen notes that Malaysian real estate investment trusts (REITs) have reported a yield drop from an average of 6.8% in 2011 to 6.2% last year but “we do not consider the yields as low”.

i-City likely to have a spillover effect

i-City likely to have a spillover effect

PETALING JAYA: Investment in excess of RM1bil during the construction of the CentralPlaza@i-City mall as well as other developments in the i-City project is expected to have a spillover effect on Selangor’s economy, according to I-Bhd.

“We expect our shopping mall to be a super regional shopping paradise that is capable of boosting economic development within the capital city and also the state,” said I-Bhd deputy chairman Datuk Eu Hong Chew who together with Selangor Menteri Besar Tan Sri Abdul Khalid Ibrahim led

未來3綜合計劃 匯華產業冀獲14億收入

(吉隆坡20日訊)基于3項綜合發展計劃,匯華產業(HUNZPTY,5018,主要板房產)預計,營業額可在未來3年內達14億令吉。

 該公司預測,通過這3項分別位于檳城丹絨武雅(Tanjung Bungah)、城威省( Seberang Perai),以及甲拋峇底(Kepala Batas)的綜合發展計劃,料可在未來3年獲得收入約14億令吉。

 匯華產業執行主席拿督許廷忠指出:“檳城房地產市場強勁,需求提高。未來3年,這3項計劃料帶來收入介于13億令吉至14億令吉。”

 他在分析師匯報會結束后向媒體如是指出。

KL-SG High-speed Rail Proposal – Drawing Closer For Mutual Benefit?

 20 SEPTEMBER 2013
KL-SG High-speed Rail Proposal – Drawing Closer For Mutual Benefit?
By Yong Chia Win

Residents in Johor Bahru (JB) often complain that the high cost of living in JB can be attributed to the horde of Singaporean visitors who are jacking up prices. Now, if there is a mean of transportation that can whiz Singaporean shoppers to Kuala Lumpur (KL) in 90 minutes, will it drive prices up in KL as well?

Comparing a comfortable 90-minute ride on a high-speed rail to KL against suffering the hassle of the traffic jam on the Causeway, which would Singaporeans choose?

UPDATE 1-Koba Tin to seek arbitration if Indonesia scraps mining permit

UPDATE 1-Koba Tin to seek arbitration if Indonesia scraps mining permit

* Indonesian officials have said Koba Tin's mine permit won't be renewed

* Mining concession being reviewed; decision on renewal due this week

* Malaysia parent firm says non-renewal to lead to arbitration in Singapore (Adds comments from Indonesian minister)

By Niluksi Koswanage

KUALA LUMPUR, Sept 19 (Reuters) - PT Koba Tin, a subsidiary of the world's second-biggest tin producer, will seek international arbitration if Indonesia's government refuses to extend its permit to operate a mine, the chief executive of the Malaysian parent company said.

Hai-O : Target Price: RM3.00 Just a Quarterly Hiccup? (Kenanga)

Hai-O Enterprise Bhd
OUTPERFORM ↔
Price: RM2.74
Target Price: RM3.00
Just a Quarterly Hiccup?

Actual vs.
Expectations
1Q14 net profit (NP) of RM8.8m came in below the street and our estimate of RM51.2m and RM52.2m, respectively; making up only about 17% of both estimates. The underperformance was mainly due to the lower sales during the Ramadan month and higher base effect from aggressive promotions in the previous quarter.

曾淵滄博士:《闡析李克強經濟學》



Sunway : Replenishing Landbank In Singapore (RHB)

Sunway
Target Price: MYR3.55
Price: MYR3.10
Replenishing Landbank In Singapore

We maintain our BUY rating with a higher FV of MYR3.55 (from MYR3.52). Sunway, with Hoi Hup Realty and SC Wong Holdings in Singapore, has won the bid for a 5.87-acre residential site at Mount Sophia, Singapore. This will bring an additional MYR2bn GDV to its portfolio. We are positive on this, as the land cost is reasonable and Sunway’s past projects have seen encouraging take-ups.

• New land at Mount Sophia. The Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) of Singapore had awarded a 5.87-acre land parcel at Mount Sophia, with 99-year lease term and plot ratio of 1.5x, to the Hoi Hup Realty, Sunway and SC Wong (51:30:19 equity ratio) consortium at SGD442.28m.

China Merchants Bank : Key Takeaways From NDR; Second Strategic Transformation On Track With Capital Concerns Removed (UOBKH)

China Merchants Bank
Share Price HK$14.80
Target Price HK$15.60
Key Takeaways From NDR; Second Strategic Transformation On Track With Capital Concerns Removed

We recently hosted a NDR with CMB for investors generally interested in the bank’s Second Strategic Transformation, capital adequacy and asset quality outlook. In our view, the bank is likely to deliver faster growth after the capital constraint is removed with an increasing mix in the MSE business. That said, we maintain HOLD as our target price of HK$15.60 implies only a 5% upside from the current price. Entry price: HK$14.00.

Giordano : Resetting Growth Expectations (UOBKH)

Giordano International (709 HK)
Share Price HK$7.20
Target Price HK$8.65

Resetting Growth Expectations

Giordano’s APAC segment is likely to face margin and sales pressures given weakening macro numbers and currency weakness in Indonesia. Meanwhile, China is showing marginal improvement as sales growth returns to positive levels and effects of operating leverage kick in after 2H12/1H13’s cost cuts. 2013 core earnings growth will be largely driven by the Middle East’s inclusion. Maintain BUY; target price: HK$8.65.

PhillipCapital Weekly Market Watch 16.09.2013 -Sin Heng



Friday, September 20, 2013

载客率强劲 马航赚幅料改善

(吉隆坡20日讯)隨著马航(MAS,3786,主板贸服股)8月份的载客率创下85.8%新高水平,分析员看好强劲的载客率將推高其营业额表现。

同时,受压的赚幅预料可逐渐改善,因为对航空业而言,下半年或许会是一个较佳的季节。

近期是热门榜常客的马航,在今天依然大热走高,该股在早盘以0.33令吉休市,起0.5仙或1.54%。

午盘交易,马航在0.32至0.325令吉区间波动,最后转跌,收报0.32令吉,全天跌0.5仙或1.54%,成交量为5087万8500股,是全场第9大热门股。

新產品新市場助力‧海鷗前景仍可期

新產品新市場助力‧海鷗前景仍可期
Created 09/20/2013 - 17:25
(吉隆坡20日訊)海鷗企業(HAIO,7668,主板貿服組)2014財政年首季表現遜預期,儘管如此,肯納格研究表示,該公司將續進行新產品推出、強化產品結構、拓展新市場渠道與實施促銷計劃等活動,因此仍看好該公司前景。

該公司首季淨利滑落14.42%至879萬2千令吉,肯納格指業績表現遜預期,而這主要因多層次行銷業務營運賺幅減少2.6%及零售業務蒙虧所致。

“該公司表示消費者購買力趨軟打擊對零售業務的需求,同時營運成本如租金走高也是零售業務蒙虧的原因。”

STM-Trust’s secondary listing on Bursa

STM-Trust’s secondary listing on Bursa
Business & Markets 2013
Written by Isabelle Francis of theedgemalaysia.com    
Friday, 20 September 2013 09:55

KUALA LUMPUR: BERJAYA SPORTS TOTO BHD [] (BToto) has proposed to undertake a proposed dividend-in-specie of up to 2.81 billion units to its shareholders in conjunction with the secondary listing of Sports Toto Malaysia Trust (STM-Trust) on the Main Market of Bursa Malaysia. STM-Trust’s primary listing is on the main board of Singapore Exchange Trading Ltd (SGX-ST).

The dividend-in-specie is on the basis of 21 STM-Trust units for every 10 BToto shares, the company said in a filing with Bursa Malaysia yesterday. The 2.81 billion units represent up to 58.18% of the total number of STM-Trust units in issue.

增长策略支撑 券商唱好亚航前景

增长策略支撑 券商唱好亚航前景
Created 09/20/2013 - 10:42
(吉隆坡19日讯)尽管营运环境艰难,但分析员仍看好亚洲航空(AIRASIA,5099,主板贸服股)的前景。

艾芬投资银行指出,在过去3个月,原油燃料平均价涨了12%至每桶128美元。

今年迄今,燃料平均价企在每桶122美元,符合该行的预估。

燃料占亚航营运成本的40至50%,据悉,亚航已以每桶123美元的价位为本财年的30%燃料需求进行护盘,剩余的70%则以现货价交易。

Landmarks proposes rights issue to fund hotel projects

Landmarks proposes rights issue to fund hotel projects
Business & Markets 2013
Written by Siow Chen Ming of theedgemalaysia.com    
Friday, 20 September 2013 10:18

Landmarks proposes rights issue to fund hotel projects  KUALA LUMPUR: LANDMARKS BHD [], in which GENTING BHD [] is the single largest shareholder with a 30.3% stake, has proposed a rights issue of warrants to raise RM79.5 million to partially fund the development of hotels in Treasure Bay, Bintan, Indonesia and a resort at Datai Bay, Langkawi.

Berjaya Sports Toto: Rewarding shareholders (DBSV)

Berjaya Sports Toto
BUY RM4.10
KLCI : 1,792.91
(Upgrade from Hold)
Price Target : 12- month RM5.00 (Prev RM 4.30)

Rewarding shareholders
• More details on STMT spin-off: special DPS revised to 12- 15sen + dividend-in-specie of STMT units
• STMT offers attractive 8% yield from resilient NFO earnings; easier entry via BST given low 12% free-float
• Upgrade BST to Buy, SOP-based TP raised to RM5.00

AirAsia X - Thai Venture Takes Another Step Forward

AirAsia X -
Price Target:1.65
Last Price:1.14
Thai Venture Takes Another Step Forward

AirAsia X (AAX) informed Bursa Malaysia  yesterday that it entered into a Joint Venture Agreement (JVA) with Mr Tassapon (TB) and Mr Julpas Kruesopon  (JK)  on  Wednesday  to  govern  the  relationship  between  the parties  in  Thai  AirAsia  X  (TAAX).  This  marks  a  step  forward  for  AAX towards setting up its new hub in Thailand as guided by management.

- Briefly on the JVA. Under the agreement, AAX will hold 49% while TB  and  JK  will  hold  41%  and  10%  interest  respectively  in  TAAX’s issued and paid up capital of THB400m. TAAX, which is expected to receive the air operator’s licence (AOL) by end-September, will subsequently submit its  application  for  an  air  operator’s certificate  (AOC).  It  will  commence operations  once  it  obtains  approvals  from  the  authorities.  As  we highlighted  in  our  report  initiating  coverage  on  AAX,  we  expect  the carrier  to  commence  operation  by  2QFY14  with  two  aircraft  to  two destinations, i.e. Seoul, South Korea and Tokyo, Japan.

Tapering delayed, so now what? (CIMB)

 Tapering delayed, so now what?
The US Fed has postponed the tapering of monetary stimulus and this will have a positive near-term impact on S-REIT share prices. But we note that interest rates remain on an upward bias, and an aggressive investment stance on S-REITs may not be wise. We remain selective. Developers, another interest-rate sensitive sector, could be a better bet.

 We remain Overweight on developers, preferring stocks with less residential and more diversified exposures. UOL, CapLand and GLP remain our key picks. We remain Neutral on S-REITs but highlight AREIT and SUN as our top picks to benefit from this positive event. S-REITs that de-rated the most in the last three months could also rebound the most. These include KREIT, CDLHT and FCOT.

Salcon announced the disposal of all its entire interest in China’s water and wastewater concessions (NRA)

Salcon Berhad
Current Price : RM 0.69 on 13/09/13
Target Price: RM 0.91
Recommendation: BUY

Recent Development
• Salcon announced the disposal of all its entire interest in China’s water and wastewater concessions to HKEx-listed Beijing Enterprises Water Group Limited (BEWGL) for RMB955m (approximately RM518.3m).

• Separately, Salcon also announced that its 50.01%-owned Nusantara Megajuta Sdn Bhd (NMSB) had signed a Letter of Intent with Eco World Development Sdn Bhd to jointly develop 2 pieces of land, measuring 51,476 sqm in Johor.

Genting Singapore: Japan to submit casino bill? (AM)

Genting Singapore:
Price: S$1.46
Fair Value: S$1.50
Japan to submit casino bill?

• Bloomberg reported that Japanese legislators are planning to present a bill to legalise casinos as early as this year.

• Hiroyuki Hosoda, chairman of a cross-party group of lawmakers promoting casino development in Japan said that the group aims to submit a casino bill to the next Diet session that is expected to start next month.

• It aims to pass the bill in the following session of parliament next year.

Strategy: The other side of debt is savings (CIMB)

Strategy  
The other side of debt is savings
NEUTRAL - Maintained
Author(s): Kenneth NG, CFA +65 6210 8610, Donald CHUA, Jessalynn CHEN
▊ There is a relationship between income levels, wealth and savings. When one earns more, one tends to have more savings, but also spends more and takes on more debt. In view of the recent concerns over Singapore’s household debt, we will zoom in on this topic here. We conclude that the average household is far from stretched. We keep our Neutral rating and 3,400 end-CY13 (bottom-up) FSSTI target only because low valuations are justified, as earnings are not rosy (-5% yoy) and ROEs are also contracting. CAPL, DBS, EZI, FR, KEP, M1, OEL, SUN, THBEV and UOL are still our top picks.
 
Consumption, debt and savings grow with income
Singapore's household debt-to-GDP (75%) has made new highs. The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) has imposed borrowing limits on credit cards, car financing and mortgages. Though these make for worrying headlines, we dig through household wealth data to show that the average household is more than fine. Sure, debt is rising but that is going up with affluence and savings. CPF cash balances have posted 15% CAGR since 2008 and provide coverage of 1.2x for total mortgages. The proportion of household wealth held in property (49%) is lower than pre-Asian crisis days of ~60%, while the proportion of wealth in cash has steadily risen in the last two decades.  
 
Affluence-adjusted debt ratio makes sense
Also, there is a correlation between affluence and debt (Key chart #2) across countries. Compared with nations with similar income levels, Singapore’s household debt levels look meek. As you earn more, you save more and take on bigger debts as you upgrade your lifestyle. The crucial factor is whether you are doing this well before you can afford it. The data show that the average Singapore household has not gone overboard on debt, with recent policies likely to target a minority.  
 
No household debt problem
The other side of debt is assets. The average household has more than 3 times savings/GDP vs. debt/GDP, even if we exclude property assets. Household balance sheets look safe. Hence, we do not see a household debt problem in Singapore.


Source/Extract/Excerpts/来源/转贴/摘录: CIMB-Research,
Publish date: 20/09/13

BreadTalk Group: Why the rush? (OCBC)

BreadTalk Group:
Fair value S$0.77
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.010
versus: Current price S$0.96

Why the rush?
• Recent appreciation unwarranted
• Investors paying ahead of results
• No takeover story at this point

With BreadTalk’s share price seemingly poised to cross the S$1 barrier again, we remain steadfast in our analysis and assertion that valuations are stretched at current levels.

Soilbuild Business Space REIT - Best Proxy to Singapore Industrial Market

Soilbuild Business Space REIT
Fair value S$0.82
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.057
versus: Current price S$0.73

Best Proxy to Singapore Industrial Market
• Best-in-class portfolio properties
• Strong sponsor asset pipeline
• Robust financial position

We are initiating coverage on Soilbuild Business Space REIT (Soilbuild REIT) with a BUY rating. Our fair value of S$0.82 is based on the dividend discount model, and implies an attractive total expected return of 20.1%. At current price, Soilbuild REIT is trading at the steepest discount of 8.8% to its book value, compared to an average P/B of 1.10x seen across its subsector peers.

证券推介:趁低吸纳安硕A50中国

证券推介:趁低吸纳安硕A50中国
http://paper.wenweipo.com   [2013-09-20]    
比富达证券(香港)
 回顾过去9个月,今年应该是中国近10年以来市场最悲观的一年。自年初以来,唱淡中国股市的声音源源不绝,有影子银行、产能过剩、房地产泡沫等等,实在是多不胜数。最严重的是6月份内地爆出「钱荒」事件。上证6月份最多跌逾两成,更跌穿「建国底」1,949点,成为环球跌幅最惨重的股市。即使股市已经跌近至历史低点,唱淡中国的声音依然陆续有来,更传出地方政府性债务爆煲、反贪腐行动和资金流出等一连串负面声音。然而,上证指数自6月下旬以来一直稳步上扬,从1,849点升至2,255点,升幅约22%,是近3个月全球表现最好的股市之一。当然,客观来看,中国股市并非没有问题,但在金融市场的角度看,关键在于多少悲观情绪已反映在内。笔者认为今年内地股市被过分唱淡,市场过度悲观,导致估值陷入低谷,最终换来近期的绝地反弹。而A股近期的反弹走势应该足以证明市场已反映大部分负面问题。

Thursday, September 19, 2013

券商吁增持良機 亞航長程泰國設據點

 (吉隆坡19日訊)亞航長程(AAX,5238,主要板貿易)將注資1715萬美元(約5540萬令吉)到泰國亞航長程,標誌著亞航長程首次在海外設立駐點,艾芬投資研究看好是個增持股票的機會。

 自上市以來,亞航長程的股價一直都低于1.25令吉的首發股價格。

聲譽品牌強

 以目前的價格水平,該行看好這次亞航長程與泰國亞航總執行長塔薩蓬和泰國首相顧問克武斯潘的聯營合資,可讓公司有機會累積股份,並獲長期增長潛質。

低成本需求增‧金群利維持高賺益

低成本需求增‧金群利維持高賺益
Created 09/19/2013 - 17:29
(吉隆坡19日訊)金群利(MATRIX,5236,主板產業組)料受惠於Sendayan科技谷工業活動日增所產生的外溢效果,並將帶動旗下產業計劃達城(Bandar Seri Sendayan)的房產需求;此外,興業研究表示,低土地成本與產業需求走高將使該公司維持高總賺幅。

興業在近期探訪該公司在森美蘭州的旗艦計劃達城後表示,雖然該計劃並不受市場廣泛看好,因該區與吉隆坡的距離及附近地庫甚廣,但相信此看法很快就會改變。

興業稱,Sendayan科技谷工業活動日增及大馬皇家空軍部隊(TUDM)搬遷為該地區產生外溢效果,並將帶動達城壓抑已久的房產需求。

馬股一度漲22點‧全球股匯商品歡慶

馬股一度漲22點‧全球股匯商品歡慶
Created 09/19/2013 - 17:26
(吉隆坡19日訊)聯儲局為投資者捎來“中秋大禮”,意外保持購債規模不變,“QE退場”憂慮頓時一掃而空,全球股市聞訊手舞足蹈,徹夜狂歡,普遍寫下超過1%漲幅,亞洲主要貨幣和黃金亦加入慶典,集體走強,馬股一度大漲22點。

受利好帶動,馬股今早開市後即勢如破竹,綜指直接以1790.41點高開,漲19.01點,儘管面對套利,惟綜指早盤仍得以將漲幅保持在17點以上,最終以1792.91點閉市,漲21.51點或1.21%,刷新1個月新高。

百盛控股 负债率料增至0.6倍

百盛控股 负债率料增至0.6倍
Created 09/18/2013 - 11:42
【目标价:4.08令吉】

最新进展:

百盛控股(PARKSON,5657,主板贸服股)柬埔寨的独资子公司———True Excel投资有限公司,以1亿1709万美元(约3亿8640万令吉)租用及购买柬埔寨金边的零售商场楼层。

同时,True Excel投资也跟百盛零售亚洲(PRA)独资拥有的百盛柬埔寨(Parkson Cambodia)签订租赁协议,把上述零售商场的第1至第3层出租给后者。

谢氏兄弟看好联营计划 放眼8 亿产业GDV

谢氏兄弟看好联营计划 放眼8 亿产业GDV
Created 09/18/2013 - 12:18
(吉隆坡17日讯)谢氏兄弟机构(SBCCORP,5207,主板产业股)希望与曙光资本(SURIA,6521,主板贸服股)完成联营协议后,期望1年内把其产业项目的发展总值(GDV)从目前的3亿令吉,增至8亿令吉。

据谢氏兄弟机构在西马产业项目,发展总值将在未来12个月内达致6亿令吉,其中70%为住宅产业项目,其余为商用产业项目。

假如谢氏兄弟机构与曙光资本的联营计划能够在未来6个月内,获得股东与监管机构的批准,将可为前者在该段期间的发展总值额外增加2亿令吉。

Why Didn't the Fed Taper QE Today?



Matrix Concepts : Irresistible valuations (CIMB)

Matrix Concepts Holdings
Current RM2.71
Irresistible valuations

 Matrix is the dominant developer in Seremban and a major beneficiary of the Klang Valley property boom. There are five key reasons why we believe investors should take a closer look at the stock, foremost of which are its forward P/E of 4.5x, 9% net yield and net cash position.

Applying a discount to RNAV of 30-40%, similar to the discount we assign to Hua Yang (another small-cap developer with strong fundamentals) and wider than the 0-20% discount applied to bigger-cap developers, we derive a value of RM4.22-4.92, which implies 56-82% upside to its current share price.

Golden Agri-: Downside risk remains (OCBC)

Golden Agri-Resources:
Fair value S$0.465
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.010
versus: Current price S$0.54

Downside risk remains
• Weak CPO outlook
• Recent rebound is premature
• Downside risk remains

Golden Agri-Resources (GAR), being one of the largest palm oil plantation owners in the world, is likely to feel the negative impact of further pullback in CPO (crude palm oil) prices, especially after the recent rebounds in prices of CPO and GAR shares. With demand from both China and India – two of the world’s largest import markets for CPO – likely to remain soft, we believe that the worst is not over yet for the upstream players. Hence we maintain our SELL rating and S$0.465 fair value (still based on 11x blended FY13/FY14F EPS).

Parkway Life REIT : Acquires Five Japan Nursing Homes For S$59m (UOBKH)

Parkway Life REIT
Share Price S$2.31
Target Price S$2.39
Acquires Five Japan Nursing Homes For S$59m

PLife continued with its acquisitions in Japan with a S$59m purchase of five nursing home properties at an NPI yield of 7.0% from strategic partner K.K. Sawayaka Club. Upgrade to HOLD with a higher DDM-based target of S$2.39 after factoring in the acquisitions (+3.5-3.8% accretion to 2014-15F DPU) and as valuations have become more compelling following the recent 6% price correction since 2Q13 results. Entry price is at S$2.08.

儲局:未來3年加息2厘

儲局:未來3年加息2厘

【本報綜合報道】美國聯儲局經過一連兩天議息會議後,出乎意料地維持每月850億美元進度購買較長期美國國債及按揭抵押證券(MBS),意味押後退市,亦維持於0至0.25厘區間不變。今次議息聲明亦提到,失業率持續高企及政府削減開支,加上按揭息率上升,均成為經濟增長絆腳石。

雖然經濟前景及勞工市場下滑風險減少,但近幾個月金融市場狀況正在收緊,若持續可能放緩經濟復蘇步伐,故儲局需要多數月時間去證明經濟正在改善。

曾淵滄專欄 19.09.13:細價賭股喪炒有因

港股經過星期一的「倒薩默斯」亢奮後,一連兩天皆出現調整。今日凌晨美國聯儲局開會結果揭曉,大家可以重新調整投資組合。

長實(001)主席李嘉誠暢談多個被認為是敏感的話題,結果長實股價昨日逆市升3.09%,並帶動多隻本地地產股也上升。

李嘉誠認為目前政府的干預,已令地產投資出現政策風險,有風險自然應該避一避,因此,筆者預料長實在政府土地拍賣與招標活動中,將會抱保守態度,我也相信其他本地地產商也會如此,將來土地拍賣與招標的價格料向下滑。

拉近距离,互惠互利? 吉隆坡-新加坡高铁计划值得关注

拉近距离,互惠互利? 吉隆坡-新加坡高铁计划值得关注
文: 杨佳文 2013年09月18日 展望
新山人常说,新山物价高,是因为许多新加坡人到新山消费。如果有一种交通工具,能在90分钟内把新加坡的消费者载到吉隆坡,吉隆坡的物价是否也会随之提高呢?

花90分钟搭高速列车到吉隆坡,和在长堤上忍受塞车之苦,新加坡人会选择何者?

新加坡总理李显龙和马来西亚首相纳吉在2013年2月19日会面时宣布,两国同意建造一条衔接吉隆坡和新加坡的高速铁路,预计将在2020年完成。吉隆坡-新加坡高铁将分为90分钟的快车服务,以及会在不同高铁站停车、全程不超过2个小时的普通列车服务。这些高铁站预定将设在森美兰的芙蓉,马六甲的爱极乐(Ayer Keroh),柔佛的麻坡(Muar)、峇株巴辖(Batu Pahat)和依斯干达特区。

Fed keeps bond buying program intact



Wednesday, September 18, 2013

Federal Reserve Tapering Decision Time

 18 SEPTEMBER 2013
Federal Reserve Tapering Decision Time

This article contribution is written by IG Markets.

Global markets are poised for action, with Ben Bernanke’s press conference this evening fast approaching. The chairman of the Fed’s board of governors faces a difficult decision as he evaluates “tapering” 85 billion dollars of US quantitative easing (QE). Analysts will be closely monitoring breaking news and trends surrounding this release; do keep track of FX movements with IG.

QE by its very nature is a highly debated economic tool. A monetary policy designed to artificially increase money supply through security buying ultimately triggering a surge in lending and financial liquidity. QE essentially drip feeds market confidence into a rattled US economy, and the time has come for the necessary weaning. The beginning of this process marks a bold statement as the Fed addresses the question, is the US strong enough to stand on its own?

Rex International receives 10% stakes each in of two new exploratory licences in Norway Print

Rex International receives 10% stakes each in of two new exploratory licences in Norway Print
Written by The Edge  
Wednesday, 18 September 2013 08:36
Rex International Holding said its 65% indirectly owned subsidiary Lime Petroleum Norway AS, will receive 10% stakes in each of two new exploratory licences in Norway from North Energy ASA.

This is a result of the co-operation agreement between Lime and North Energy. Rex said no consideration is needed to be paid for the transfer of the 10% stakes, which is pending regulatory approval.

Commodities Strategy : Debunking the myth on iron ore supply (CIMB)

Commodities Strategy
Debunking the myth on iron ore supply
 
▊ With such a large project pipeline and robust prices, the market has been assuming supply growth will remain strong and thus market surpluses are generally large from 2015 onwards. However, we feel this is too optimistic and expect the market to remain tight. With conservative supply forecasts, we don’t see the market moving into surplus until 2015, at which time we would expect prices to ease. However, with iron ore in an oversupply of only 38Mt or 3% of total global supply, prices should remain buoyant. We maintain our forecasts of US$130/t in 2014, US$127/t in 2015 and US$121/t in 2016.

Hutchison Port Holdings Trust - Rating lifted as macro environment improves (CS)

Hutchison Port Holdings Trust -
Price (16 Sep 13 , US$) 0.77
TP (prev. TP US$) 0.86 (0.72)
Rating lifted as macro environment improves

● We have lifted our estimates, target price and rating for HutchisonPort Holdings Trust (HPHT) as 1H13's decline in throughput appears to have bottomed out and there are signs that Western consumption is poised to recover.

● We have raised our throughput assumptions for the balance of 2013 and 2014, reflecting better PRC export numbers in August and signs that throughput in Kwai Tsing and COSCO-HIT are recovering: August throughput numbers were uniformly positive for HPHT's Hong Kong terminals, which had previously flagged.

First Resources : Low production cycle ending? (CIMB)

First Resources
Current S$1.93
Target S$2.22
Low production cycle ending?

 First Resources reported higher mom production in Aug even though working days at the estates were impacted by the Ramadan festival. This could mean the low production cycle, due to biological tree stress, experienced by the group's estates may be ending soon.

We expect FFB yields to improve and peak in Sep or Oct and view Aug production data to be broadly in line with our expectations. We maintain our EPS forecasts and target price of S$2.22 (based on CY14 P/E of 12.3x or 1 s.d. above its mean). Maintain Outperform. We expect re-rating catalysts from higher production and better downstream contribution.

曾淵滄專欄 18.09.13:人行游擊戰抗儲局

美國聯儲局昨晚開始開會討論退市,本港時間明日凌晨有結果,在聯儲局開會前夕,港股出現調整,相信調整的壓力來自內地股市,滬綜指昨日大跌,失守2200點。

退市變博奕遊戲
我感覺到,中國人民銀行正與美國聯儲局玩「你進我退、你退我進」的遊戲,很多年前,毛澤東打游擊戰,據說就是憑「敵進我退、敵退我進」的戰術取勝。過去五年,中國是全世界最早進場印鈔票的國家,之後,美國大舉印鈔票,中國就開始準備退市,成了全世界最早退市的國家。近幾個月,美國準備退市,中國人民銀行又再開始進場,為市場提供資金,的確盡量將毛澤東的游擊戰術,搬到國際金融博弈的戰場,絕不讓美國拉着自己的鼻子走,美國若加快退市,相信中國會加快增加貨幣供應,美國若不退市,香港股市可能不妙,因為中國很可能不放水,因此,如果明日美國聯儲局不退市,不要高興得太早,要留意人民銀行的反應。

Matrix Concepts - More margin expansion to come (HLG)

Matrix Concepts
Target: RM2.84 ()
Share price: RM2.57
 More margin expansion to come

News
Over the weekend, it was reported in the Edge weekly that MCHB is currently undertaking RM1.4bn worth of projects in Seremban, while overall pipeline GDV is RM6.8bn.

At the same time, it is currently still actively looking for new landbank. Of note, its current landbank is sufficient to last it until 2022.

XMH Holdings - Acquisition plans coming online (NRA)

XMH Holdings -
Current Price S$0.425
Fair Value S$0.49
Acquisition plans coming online

■ Expanding beyond the marine sector
XMH has acquired Mech-Power Generator Group (MPG) for S$17.4m. MPG has close to 30 years experience in manufacturing and assembling diesel powered generator sets (gen sets), with operations in Singapore and Malaysia. The acquisition will mainly help XMH develop its non-marine sector.

Parkson : Expanding into Cambodia (DBSV)

Parkson Holdings Bhd
HOLD RM3.82
KLCI : 1,770.80
Price Target : 12-Month RM 3.30 (Prev RM 3.30)
Expanding into Cambodia

• Expanding into Cambodia with proposed Parkson Mall in Phnom Penh
• Added earnings in longer term
• Near term earnings continue to be dampened by China operations

Expanding base. Parkson announced two proposals by its wholly-owned subsidiary, True Excel, with PP.SW Development Co Ltd (PPSW) in Cambodia. These are:- i) 50 year lease with automatic renewal for another 50 years of the lower ground

Tuesday, September 17, 2013

爭取债券持有人支持 IOI多付一倍「甜头」

(吉隆坡17日讯)为了爭取债券持有人的同意与支持,让把產业业务分拆上市能够顺利进行,IOI集团(IOICORP,1961,主板种植股)不借付出多一倍的「甜头」给债券持有人。

IOI集团在一项文告中指出,將把给予2015年到期的债券持有人的同意费,提高一倍,以爭取债券持有支持让產业业务独立上市的计划。

IOI集团共发出两批不同期限的债券,一批是在2015年满期,这批债券的总额是5亿美元,年利是5.25%。

第二批总额6亿美元的债券,则是在2022年满期,年利是4.375%。

分析员唱淡 消费股不再风光

(吉隆坡17日讯)美国量化宽鬆(QE)政策生变在即,市场分析员认为,过去3年股价涨潮存在非理性成份的消费股,將在业绩表现回归平淡的同时,进一步失去扶持力道。因此,分析员持续看淡消费股的行情,並认为,消费股行將迎来降级潮。

安联研究分析员表示,自该投行于6月10日把消费股的评级从「中和」下调至「跑输大市」后,该领域的股价已走跌2.4%。儘管消费股的次季业绩表现稳定,但展望未来,分析员仍难以找到激励因素,因此持续维持「跑输大市」评级。

分析员指出,消费股的次季业绩优于令人失望的首季业绩,在其所统计的24家消费股中,共有7家或29%比重的表现超越市场预期,另有5家或21%的表现则低于预期。

阿曼油田若成功采油 大红花石油回馈必惊人

阿曼油田若成功采油 大红花石油回馈必惊人

 二零一三年九月十四日 晚上七时二十八分

(吉隆坡14日讯)大红花石油有限公司(HIBISCS,5199,贸易服务组)项目总监克里斯托弗迪亚斯说:“我对于阿曼的探油业务感到兴奋。”该集团在12周前,已在阿曼进行石油钻探计划。

目前,迪亚斯和他的团队或多或少已完成地基工程。大红花已斥资3500万美元(1亿令吉)去钻探两口油井。

经过谨慎的考虑,他们已经决定在选定的油井中使用自升式钻井平台。

Tune Ins to raise travel policy sales

Tune Ins to raise travel policy sales

BY LIZ LEE

KUALA LUMPUR: Insurance group Tune Ins Holdings Bhd plans to grow its travel policy sales by 20% and launch TuneDirect, an online offering aimed at cementing the group’s online presence, this year.

Chief executive officer Peter Miller said the company continued to record growth stemming from its partnership with AirAsia Bhd, while also “doing exceptionally well” in the online space.

SBC projects RM800m GDV

SBC projects RM800m GDV

BY LIZ LEE

KUALA LUMPUR: SBC Corp is looking to bump up the gross development value (GDV) of its projects in the next 12 months from the current RM300mil to RM800mil, upon finalising a joint-venture (JV) agreement with Suria Capital Holdings Bhd.

Based on its projects within Peninsular Malaysia, the group’s GDV for the next 12 months is estimated at RM600mil, 70% of which are residential projects and 30% commercial.

Affin IB Research positive on Parkson's Cambodia expansion, maintains Add

Affin IB Research positive on Parkson's Cambodia expansion, maintains Add
Business & Markets 2013
Written by Jeffrey Tan of theedgemalaysia.com    
Tuesday, 17 September 2013 11:06

KUALA LUMPUR (Sept 17): Affin Investment Bank Research has maintained its ‘add’ call on PARKSON HOLDINGS BHD [] (PHB) with an upside of 2.1% on a revised net asset value target price to RM3.90, in view of PHB’s expansion into Cambodia.

In a note today, the research house also said it maintained its FY14-16 net profit forecasts for the retail firm, as any contribution from Cambodia over the next three years will be relatively immaterial.

麥嘉華(Marc Faber)筆記 16.09.13:伯南克令我打冷震

每次聽到伯南克這個名字,我就會「打冷震」,尤其是當有人稱讚他是「美國史上最偉大的中央銀行家」,或者把他推崇為「拯救世界經濟的男人」。

大政府插手 礙經濟增長
如今,學者和政客似乎越來越接受「大政府」干預經濟,而我卻認為這將會變成窒礙經濟增長的絆腳石,到頭來受害者不單是美國,還有整個西方世界。當你聽到朱克曼(Zuckerman)等財經界知名人士也高度評價伯南克的時候,大家便要做好心理準備,未來的景況可能會「大同小異」,債券市場的好壞便會成為一面照妖鏡。

Nam Cheong : More Roadshow Moments (DMG)

Nam Cheong
Target Price: SGD0.37
Price: SGD0.28
More Roadshow Moments

 We showcased NCL at our Hong Kong Asean Corporate Day last Thursday. Investors warmed up to the company’s business model, growth prospects and low valuations, which struck a chord with the value- and growth-oriented funds. Meanwhile, the recovery of commercial shipbuilding in China is a strong support to vessel prices. Maintain BUY with SGD0.37 TP.

Soilbuild Business Space REIT: Offering a blend of stability and growth (AM)

Soilbuild Business Space REIT: Offering a blend of stability and growth
(Initiation - BUY, FV: S$0.83)

We initiate coverage on Soilbuild Business Space REIT with a BUY recommendation and a target price of S$0.83. Soilbuild REIT is a Singapore real estate investment trust that comprises two business park assets and five light industrial properties. Distributions are on a quarterly basis and the first DPU is expected to be distributed on or before 27 Feb 2014.

Malaysia Pre-UMNO Party Election (UOBKH)

Current FBMKLCI: 1,770.80
Target 2013 FBMKLCI: 1,760.

The UMNO election marks a good time to position for a year-end uptrend. As UMNO gears up for its triennial party election which will be held on 19 Oct 13, we expect the upcoming UMNO party election results to be largely marketneutral. The election results should affirm the country’s pro-business policies, the political will to curb the country’s fiscal deficit, with limited fiscal pressure on the just-announced Bumiputra Economic Empowerment policy.

曾淵滄專欄 17.09.13:賭議息結果博唔過

美國前財長薩默斯,經過數個月的游說、試探,議員表態的結果是不歡迎他,結果知難而退,這被市場視為好消息,而另一位大熱人選、聯儲局副主席耶倫,若接替伯南克,蕭規曹隨的可能性很高,市場估計美國退市的步伐會放慢,所以當成好消息。

當然,若市場太樂觀,明天儲局會議結果令市場失望的話,會出現巨大的震動,因此,現階段應該觀望,不值得賭聯儲局的開會結果。

我經常鼓勵長期投資,奇怪,股市大跌時,沒有多少人問我甚麼股份值得長期投資,往往是在股市大升時,才有朋友問有甚麼好股值得持有10年?

Sabana Shari’ah Compliant REIT : S$40m Private Placement To Fund AMD Acquisition (UOBKH)

Sabana Shari’ah Compliant REIT
Share Price S$1.08
Target Price S$1.26
S$40m Private Placement To Fund AMD Acquisition

Sabana has completed a private placement of 40m new units (6.2% of outstanding units) at S$1.00 per unit, to raise S$40m to partially fund the proposed acquisition of AMD’s factory building for S$68m. Although the placement reduces the near-term risk of additional equity fund-raising, we remain cautious due to the expiry of the master-leases. Maintain HOLD with a lower target price of S$1.26 (from S$1.29). Entry price is S$1.05.

"GOODPACK's 4Q Was Strong, Set For Stronger Profit Growth?"

"GOODPACK's 4Q Was Strong, Set For Stronger Profit Growth?"
Written by SG Investor
Saturday, 14 September 2013 12:02
The writer is a shareholder of Goodpack.

UBBER USED TO be transported in wooden crates only. Twenty five years ago, Singaporean David Lam hit upon the idea of developing alternative packaging for rubber after witnessing how difficult it was to remove wood splinters from rubber after crates fell from a lorry in Thailand. (See: GOODPACK: The Man Behind Its Sterling Results)

OUE Hospitality Trust: The only pure Orchard Road play (OCBC)

OUE Hospitality Trust:
Fair value S$0.94
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.046
versus: Current price S$0.870

The only pure Orchard Road play
• Good RevPAR performance in 1Q13
• Strong sponsor with ROFR pipeline
• 13.4% total returns with FV of S$0.94

Summary: OUE Hospitality Trust (OUEHT) is a stapled group consisting of OUE Hospitality Real Estate Investment Trust (OUE H-REIT), a REIT under which the initial portfolio is held, and OUE Hospitality Business Trust (OUE H-BT), a dormant business trust.

Tigerair : Too Early To Be Optimistic (UOBKH)

Tigerair
Share Price S$0.575
Target Price S$0.550
Too Early To Be Optimistic

August operating data indicates that capacity growth is outpacing demand and market expectation of an earnings recovery could be misplaced. Performance of associates is also unlikely to fare better with loads remaining weak and higher fuel prices. Maintain SELL; unchanged target price of S$0.55.

Sin Heng : Poised for success when no one was looking (Phillip)

Sin Heng Heavy Machinery - SHHM
Target Price (SGD) 0.27
- Previous Target Price (SGD) -
Closing Price (SGD) 0.22
Poised for success when no one was looking

Company Overview
SHHM, with more than 40 years experience, is an efficiently run provider of cranes, aerial lifts and other heavy lifting equipment. They have projects in infrastructure and construction, offshore and marine as well as oil and gas. Their rental operations are mainly in Singapore, Malaysia, Vietnam and now newly in opportunistic Myanmar.

Monday, September 16, 2013

消息频传引关注 电讯股仍充满挑战

过去一周,有多项电讯股的消息,让相关股项再次成为投资者的焦点。首先,是持有P1的绿驶通讯科技(GPacket,0082,主板科技股)週初在传言中大热走高,市场各种的传言,包括数码网络(DiGi,6947,主板基建股)及马电讯(TM,4863,主板贸服股)均覬覦P1持有的频谱,因此,有意收购P1的股权。

之后,亚通(Axiata,6888,主板贸服股)旗下的天地通(Celcom)则宣布,次季(截至6月30日)营业额创下20亿令吉新高,未计算利息、税项、折旧及摊销之盈利(EBITDA)亦首次突破9亿令吉。同时,该公司也表示,物品消费税(GST)上路,对电讯业者有利,可將原本由业者吸纳的6%预付服务销售税务,转嫁给消费者。加上,外资重新进场,让电讯股全周交投活跃。

How will Singapore firms deal with tapering?



末日博士:錢放哪裡才不末日?

末日博士:錢放哪裡才不末日?
Created 09/15/2013 - 19:00
你心目中的大師是怎樣的形象?是像喬布斯般穿著黑色毛衣與牛仔褲,口中說著“還有一件事(One More Thing)”,處處給人帶來驚喜,還是像投資大師羅傑斯穿著筆挺西裝、打著蝴蝶結正經八百地傳授投資秘訣?

第一次見有“末日博士”之稱的麥嘉華(Marc Faber),從正面看他的穿著打扮與一般成功人士沒有太大分別,但從側面一看,綁上小馬尾的頭髮,加上一針見血的批判功夫,總是將一桶桶冷水往血脈噴張的投資者潑去,就可看見他的與別不同。

Jefferies ups Pacific Basin (02343) to HK$6.5

[ET Net News Agency, 10 September 2013] Jefferies Research raised its target price for Pacific Basin Shipping (PBS)(02343) to HK$6.5 from HK$4.7, and upgraded the stock to "buy"from "hold".

The research house said PBS could play either the catch up of Handysize to the massive rally of Capesize segment, or management's ability to grow earnings even if the recent rebound in Capesize rates is only seasonal.

Jefferies said PBS could play both the offensive and defensive angle to the recent dry bulk rally. If the recent 300% rally of Capesize segment since June is sustainable,

电子书浪潮来袭 彩虹出版变通应战

电子书浪潮来袭 彩虹出版变通应战
Created 09/16/2013 - 14:56
彩虹出版社,是多少学子的回忆,她所出版的教科书与参考书,陪着许多人走过无数个挑灯应付考试的夜晚。

然而,在网络资讯发达电子书崛起的时代,作为传统出版业之一的彩虹出版(PPG,7190,主板工业产品股),该何去何从?

彩虹出版上市几被遗忘

上市将近10年,在媒体上的曝光率少之又少,更没有办过任何一场分析员汇报会。

家債增速超越經濟

家債增速超越經濟
Created 09/15/2013 - 19:02
中國文字博大精深,單是文字構造,就可分成象形、指事、會意、形聲、轉注和假借六種法則,但我們在使用文字的時候,有多少人真正瞭解其誕生背後的故事。就好比“債”字,我國國債、家債、卡債等問題陳出不窮,“債”字堪稱近年使用次數最多的單字,但“債”字背後的涵義又有多少人知道?

“債”本念“責”,涵義是催促還錢,但隨著本義消失後,“責”的篆文再加“人”(催還的借主)另造“債”用以表達使用荊條鞭打,逼迫償還所欠的錢財之義,其實欠債還錢本是天經地義的事,但無奈在誠信缺失的當下,欠債不還或根本還不起卻已成為社會常態。

一股作气:林吉灵集团无债一身轻

一股作气:林吉灵集团无债一身轻
Created 09/16/2013 - 13:49
木制相框制造与出口商林吉灵集团(CScenic,7202,主板消费产品股)不仅无债一身轻,甚至握有千万令吉的现金。

产品主要以出口为主要收入来源的林吉灵集团,在美元兑令吉不断走强之下,有利于该集团的营收表现。

在股息派发上,近年来的股息派发率超过净利的90%,大幅度超过该集团所设下的至少50%股息政策。

林園:A股應在四千點


股壇名人論A股

滬綜指自六月底1,849點低位反彈至今,已有逾兩成升幅,不少投資者憧憬A股已拉開新一波牛市的序幕。有中國「民間股神」之稱的林園,接受本報專訪時表示,難肯定大市是否已轉勢,但現在A股估值非常低,很多股票都很便宜,像與居民基本消費相關的吃、喝、地產、汽車等板塊都有投資價值,A股正常估值應在4,000點以上。

Weekend Comment Sept 13: Indonesia's shock rate hike to affect locally-listed stocks

Weekend Comment Sept 13: Indonesia's shock rate hike to affect locally-listed stocks

Written by Joan Ng  
Saturday, 14 September 2013 10:52
BANK INDONESIA UNEXPECTEDLY hiked its benchmark policy rate by 25 basis points yesterday to 7.25%, the country’s highest in more than four years. This is the second rate hike in two weeks and comes on the back of a weakening Indonesian rupiah and market concerns over the country’s current account deficit. Indonesia’s policymakers have also lowered their GDP growth forecasts. They now expect 2013 growth to come in between 5.5% and 5.9%, down from expectations of 5.8% to 6.2% growth previously.

曾淵滄專欄 16.09.13:港股夠平不怕退市

雷曼兄弟2008年9月15日宣佈破產,那一天也就是國際金融海嘯的爆發日,昨日就是金融海嘯五周年,傳媒似乎忘記了金融海嘯。

海嘯爆發五周年,美股已再創歷史新高,可憐香港股市離開2007年的歷史高位仍很遠,不過,這也表示目前港股的估值依然便宜,因此也不必太擔心美國退市。

實際上,美國投資者早已把退市的壓力消化了,上周末美股距離今年5月初的歷史高位僅1%。

Press Metal - Farewell To Loss-Making Unit

Press Metal -
Price Target:2.77
Last Price:2.10
Farewell To Loss-Making Unit

PRESS’ final asset  settlement  agreement  with  its  China  partners  ends its Hubei smelter losses, in exchange for a nominal income stream from its  extrusion plant.  Although  the MYR50m  one-off  loss is  slightly  more than  its  net  realisable  value,  it  is  likely  non-cash  in  nature  and  largely priced in. Thus, it has no impact to our MYR2.77 FV, which is at a 30% discount to our fully-diluted DCF valuation. Maintain BUY.

FIRST REIT : UPGRADE TO BUY ON VALUATION GROUNDS (OCBC)

FIRST REIT
Fair value S$1.20
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.079
versus: Current price S$1.035

UPGRADE TO BUY ON VALUATION GROUNDS
• Hospitals well-equipped
• FY14F distribution yield of 8.3%
• Value has re-emerged

Indonesian properties visit
We visited five of First REIT’s (FREIT) properties (four hospitals and one hotel and country club) in Indonesia over a two-day period last week. This included its Siloam Hospitals TB Simatupang (SHTS), which is located in South Jakarta and acquired by

Why Interest Rates Might Not Matter

Why Interest Rates Might Not Matter
By Ser Jing Chong - September 11, 2013

There has been plenty of chatter over the past few months on when the US Federal Reserve will start tapering its stimulus efforts (known as Quantitative Easing). The Fed’s Chairman Ben Bernanke first gave a hint of a slowdown in QE back in late May, which caused a pullback in stock markets around the world.

Our local stock market barometer, the Straits Times Index (SGX: ^STI), is a testimony to that effect, as it has fallen by more than 10% from a high of 3,465 points in 22 May 2013 to its current level of around 3,100 points after Bernanke’s comments.

OTTO MARINE Christens Ultra Large AHTS - Go Phoenix

OTTO MARINE Christens Ultra Large AHTS - Go Phoenix
Written by Sim Kih
Wednesday, 11 September 2013 12:00

AT THE christening celebration for the second ultra large AHTS vessel built by Otto Marine, its management reiterated its resolve to diversify its revenue stream and improve capital management.

On last Friday evening (6 Sept), Otto Marine held a vessel naming ceremony for a highly complex 24,000bhp Anchor Handling Tug Supply (AHTS) vessel, Go Phoenix, at Marina Keppel Bay.

The vessel was built for its 90%-owned subsidiary, Group Marine Group, and financed by the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, in what was the leading PRC bank's first offshore vessel deal in Singapore.

Bumitama Agri : A Tree Worth Buying (UOBKH)

Bumitama Agri
Share Price S$1.00
Target Price S$1.23
A Tree Worth Buying

Re-iterate BUY with target price at S$1.23 on the back of its young age profile to support its production growth and as it continues to deliver one of the best OERs in the industry. On-time debt restructuring has helped to reduce exposure to Indonesia’s rate hike and lower the interest expense.

What’s New
• We re-iterate our BUY call on Bumitama Agri (BAL) with target price of S$1.23 based on 14x 2014F PE on the back of

Religare Health Trust : Rupee concerns priced in – acquisition opportunity exists (CIMB)

Religare Health Trust
Current S$0.76
Target S$0.93
Rupee concerns priced in – acquisition opportunity exists

 RHT was sold down on softer rupee and rising interest rates. Current share price implies a further rupee depreciation of 35%. We also see acquisition opportunity given the weak rupee and RHT’s low debt.

We trim our estimates to factor in higher interest cost and weaker rupee. Our DDM-based target price drops 13%. Maintain Outperform with acquisition acting as catalyst.

Sunday, September 15, 2013

美下周收水?市場未驚過



聯儲局QE歷程

美國聯儲局下周議息會議備受關注,《華爾街日報》和彭博社的調查不約而同顯示,市場普遍預料當局下周將啟動退市,彭博社調查的逾半受訪者更預期,即使落實退市亦不會引發金融市場動盪。與此同時,日本《日經新聞》報道,美國總統奧巴馬最快下周稍後提名前財長薩默斯接掌聯儲局,消息刺激美元一度上升,白宮其後否認報道。

美債息升越3厘,又如何?

美債息升越3厘,又如何?
作者 畢氏財演 | 股劃有道

聯儲局縮減買債規模勢在必行,導致美國10年期債息曾經升越3厘關口。由於畢者幾睇好今年股市下半年的表現,不少朋友讀者都問畢者,債息係咁升喎,你仲係唔係咁睇好後市﹖畢者反而想問一句,債息升越3厘,咁又點啫﹖

你可能會話,債息升到3厘,投資者當然會因利率上升而拋售股票,資金會流入債券市場買債券,資金流出股市,個市實跌啦。這個諗法睇落合理,但其實有兩個主要謬誤﹕(1)資金是否流入債市是按對未來債息的預期,並非現在債息的高低﹔(2)股票及債券的需求有根本上的分別。

End Of QE, End Of Boom – Cautionary Words From Hu Li Yang

13 SEPTEMBER 2013
End Of QE, End Of Boom – Cautionary Words From Hu Li Yang
By Daxx Chong

With quantitative easing (QE) wildly expected to mark the beginning of its end some time this month, Shares Investment had the privilege to have an exclusive interview with investment guru Hu Li Yang. Having captivated the hearts of many with his ability to explain complex financial market phenomena using simple everyday lives analogies, Hu shares his self-devised “Tetralogy Of QE Exit” to illustrate the effects of QE tapering and on why investors should tread the road ahead with caution.

Shares Investment: Speculations are rife that the Federal Reserve will start QE tapering this month, do you think it will materialise?

Prof Chan Yan Chong’s Column 13.09.2013

13 SEPTEMBER 2013
Prof Chan Yan Chong’s Column
By Dr Chan Yan Chong

Stock markets plunged in Hong Kong and Singapore after news of a possible attack on Syria by the US and its allies spread. The Americans had invaded Afghanistan and Iraq incurring lots of casualties but with no positive results at the end of the day hence Syria, with no natural resources such as oil and also not a country tagged with the label of a terrorist, is not an “attractive target” for President Obama.

The chaos in Syria has been ongoing for almost a year and, thus, the Americans would have attacked the country if it had wanted to. When the Americans toppled Gaddafi last year, the US ambassador to Libya was murdered and that could have stopped the Americans from attacking Egypt when Mubarak was overthrown last year. Now that the pro-US military government in Egypt has been criticised by the world, the Americans have no choice but to join in the reprimand and nothing more than that.  There is no real reason for the US to attack Syria for fear of turning the regime into a terrorist-controlled entity so it has been a “reprimand” at the very best from the outset.

Gabriel Gan: All Good Things Must Come To An End And So Will The Bad

13 SEPTEMBER 2013
All Good Things Must Come To An End And So Will The Bad
By Gabriel Gan

There are a few reasons to be singing Auld Lang Syne – a song sung as a farewell or an ending to other occasions because after so many years of involvement with Shares Investment, this will be my final contribution to this publication that I first joined as a Research Analyst in May 2000. I have not stopped writing even though I left in 2006 to pursue another career and I am grateful to the management for giving me the opportunity to write.

The other reason to sing a farewell song after romancing it for so many years is that of an end to quantitative easing. All good things, or is it, must come to an end because too much of a good thing can do more harm than good. It is only a matter of time before the US Federal Reserve (Fed) does so – be it Ben Bernanke or his successor, as hinted by the Chairman himself and echoed by his fellow members of the committee, or the US economy may face runaway debt level and, ultimately, uncontrollable inflation.

New iPhone 5C too costly for China: analysts


曹仁超:四十而不惑 投资识拣择

曹仁超:四十而不惑 投资识拣择

时光飞逝,匆匆四十载。

1967年踏足社会工作那年,香港遍地菠萝(土制炸弹),之后逐步走向极度繁华的2007年。香港制造业则由1967年兴盛,到1980年面对高地价、高工资压力而停滞不前,转向内地发展后获第二春。

随着2007年人民币大幅升值;加上内地亦步入高地价、高工资时代,令内地制造业陷入萎缩期。

1967年有远见的投资者从事房地产投资,经历了1973年股灾、1982年香港主权之争、1989年「六四」事件、1997年八万五房屋政策及2003年沙士事件,不少房地产公司被淘汰出局,余下者已壮大成为世界级大企业。

罗杰斯看多中国 看好农业环保等4行业

看多中国 看空美国

  罗杰斯:在21世纪最重要的事情就是中国的崛起。中国可以说是全世界唯一的这样的国家,它可以不断的崛起。比如说以前罗马、埃及在历史上都曾是很伟大的国家,英国曾经是,但是他们都衰落了。中国在历史上几度走向衰落,但是每次都会再重生,再次崛起,我觉得全世界没有哪个国家历史上做过这样的事情,只有中国。中国人都很勤奋,很想过幸福的生活,很喜欢储蓄。不但喜欢储蓄,也喜欢投资,这也是崛起的条件。我相信中国崛起的过程当中还会有一些挫折,只要有崛起,都会有问题。我告诉西方人说,当中国出现问题的时候不要担心,这只是一个纠正的周期,长期还是崛起的,你们一定要多参与中国的事务。

金融危机:救市大战留下的五个教训

David Wessel

全球金融系统一度濒临崩溃的危机过去五年后,现在美国人有很好的理由来庆祝胜利了。

毕竟,美国经济正在增长,人均国内生产总值(GDP)已经重回危机前水平。失业率正在下降。银行业重拾活力,并且偿还了纳税人向其注入的几乎全部2,450亿美元救助资金。美国股市和家庭净值已经收复了全部失地。

或者,美国人可能也有理由怀疑为何情况还是那么糟糕,并且会问,如果在一些方面采取不同的做法(采取某些措施,避免另外一些措施),是否可以缓解持续了很久的经济痛楚。

Beware of China bubble: Faber

Beware of China bubble: Faber
Posted on 11 September 2013 - 05:39am
Liew Jia Teng
sunbiz@thesundaily.com

KUALA LUMPUR (Sept 11, 2013): Marc Faber, known as "Doctor Doom" in the investment circle, plans to keep his shares in Malayan Banking Bhd and Public Bank Bhd because they let him "sleep well at night".

"Unlike US banks, Malaysia's are solid and they do not involve in derivatives or gamble," he told a press conference after giving a presentation entitled "Investment Strategy – Where's the Money?" here today.

"Malaysia may not be seen as an exciting market and the stock market is certainly not cheap, but this is a well-balanced economy and stable enough to let you sleep soundly at night," he said.

Malaysian banks solid, says investment guru

KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysian banks are solid, as they are not involved in risky financial instruments such as derivaties by US banks, said investment guru Dr Marc Faber.

Faber, the publisher of the widely-read Gloom, Boom & Doom report, said that despite Fitch Ratings’ recent negative outlook on Malaysia, the country was relatively well compared to other emerging countries.

Given the choice of between US and Malaysian equities, Faber expressed more interest towards the latter. “Malaysian equities are not exciting. However, they are relatively stable, supported by a well-balanced economy coupled with no major downward risks,” he said.
Warren E. Buffett(沃伦•巴菲特)
Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful
别人贪婪时我恐惧, 别人恐惧时我贪婪
投资只需学好两门课: 一,是如何给企业估值,二,是如何看待股市波动
吉姆·罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)
“错过时机”胜于“搞错对象”:不会全军覆没!”
做自己熟悉的事,等到发现大好机会才投钱下去

乔治·索罗斯(George Soros)

“犯错误并没有什么好羞耻的,只有知错不改才是耻辱。”

如果操作过量,即使对市场判断正确,仍会一败涂地。

李驰(中国巴菲特)
高估期间, 卖对, 不卖也对, 买是错的。
低估期间, 买对, 不买也是对, 卖是错的。

Tan Teng Boo


There’s no such thing as defensive stocks.Every stock can be defensive depending on what price you pay for it and what value you get,
冷眼(冯时能)投资概念
“买股票就是买公司的股份,买股份就是与陌生人合股做生意”。
合股做生意,则公司股份的业绩高于一切,而股票的价值决定于盈利。
价值是本,价格是末,故公司比股市重要百倍。
曹仁超-香港股神/港股明灯
1.有智慧,不如趁势
2.止损不止盈
成功者所以成功,是因为不怕失败!失败者所以失败,是失败后不再尝试!
曾淵滄-散户明灯
每逢灾难就是机会,而是在灾难发生时贱价买股票,然后放在一边,耐性地等灾难结束
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