Saturday, September 14, 2013

騰訊開Bank撼內銀

騰訊開Bank撼內銀
市場傳出全國首份地方版《試點民營銀行監督管理辦法討論稿》已上報中銀監,意味為民間資本參與地方銀行營運正式開綠燈,吸引擁有以億計用戶的騰訊(00700)、阿里巴巴集團及蘇寧等為首共11家民企搶灘進攻金融業。由於這些「小民行」以服務三農及以地方形式經營,意味內地銀行業或出現翻天覆地的競爭和變革。

消息拖累農行(01288)及民行(01988)股價,分別跌1.90%及3.14%。

對於市傳騰訊以發起人身份擬在深圳成立民營銀行,騰訊亦未有對消息作出回應。阿里小微金融亦重申不會回應市場有關該公司申請網絡銀行牌照的傳聞。

對沖人生:成功全職炒家 萬中無一

今個月15日是雷曼兄弟爆煲五周年。由於我曾用雷曼作為操作上的主要經紀(Prime Broker),是機構性「苦主」,有傳媒近日問到「後雷曼」世界的睇法。我的答案也很直接:向前看吧,百年一遇的金融海嘯不知會否再重臨,但日子依然要過!更值得反思是,金融泡沫形成前後,不少人願意成為全職炒家:9點半前坐定定,中午小休,下午4時15分離場,做了「隱世居士」。

過來人差點妻離子散
先談談一位專業人士的故事。閒來他在一社區中心當義工,講述為何現在「只投資、不投機」。故事的主角已為人父,他曾以為自己是無藥可救的病態賭徒,原來凡事也可改變!在此叫仁兄為「Ghost」,重點落在他心態上的改變。

《股市资讯》2013投资研讨峰会:胡立阳提醒大家—QE退市,好景不再

《股市资讯》2013投资研讨峰会:胡立阳提醒大家—QE退市,好景不再
文: 钟旭光 (译:杨佳文) 2013年09月13日 焦点

市场人士纷纷揣测美国联邦储备局将会在本月开始缩减量化宽松政策(QE)的规模,《股市资讯》有幸与投资大师胡立阳进行了独家专访,以了解他的看法。胡立阳擅于以简单、生动的比喻来解释复杂的金融市场现象,因此掳获了不少投资者的心。胡立阳在访谈中提到了他的“QE退场四部曲”,讲解了美国缩减QE规模将带来的影响,以及投资者为何要小心谨慎。

《股市资讯》:市场人士都揣测美国联储局会在本月开始缩减QE的规模,您认为这是否会成真呢?

政府承诺投资1600亿建铁路 建筑领域红火持续

政府承诺投资1600亿建铁路 建筑领域红火持续
Created 09/14/2013 - 13:51
(吉隆坡13日讯)分析员认为,首相宣布额外投资1600亿令吉在铁路相关项目,对我国建筑公司是利好消息,建议继续“增持”建筑股。

日前,我国首相拿督斯里纳吉在2013年亚洲铁路业务展览及大会主持开幕礼时表示,政府预计在2020年之前,对铁路相关项目作额外1600亿令吉投资。

艾芬投行分析员表示,尽管首相没有特别指明是那几个铁路项目,但相信该名单涵盖巴生河流域捷运第二、三路线、隆新高铁、金马士-新山双线铁路工程、双文丹-巴生港口-芙蓉货运专线、莎阿南轻快铁延长线和东海岸铁路。

“首相宣布在铁路相关项目给予额外重大投资,对我国主要建筑公司而言是利好消息,特别是作为主要或次级承包商的金务大(GAMUDA,5398,主板建筑股)和IJM(IJM,3336,主板建筑股),该公司都在铁路相关领域拥有优良记录和经验。”

領匯房地產信託基金(823.HK) - 估值不便宜,降級至”減持”

推介日期   09-09-2013 
投資建議減持
建議時股價$ 34.450
買入價N/A
目標價$ 31.600

領匯房地產信託基金(823.HK) - 估值不便宜,降級至”減持”

公司簡介

領匯房地產信託基金(“領匯”)為首間香港地產投資信託基金。截至2013年3月31日,物業組合包括內部樓面面積約1,100萬平方呎零售物業及約80,000個泊車位。物業組合的零售設施與香港逾四成住戶的居所為鄰,提供顧客日常所需,服務全港市民。

嘉華國際(0173.HK) - 上海項目前景樂觀,香港項目策略正確

推介日期   03-09-2013 
投資建議增持
建議時股價$ 3.820
買入價N/A
目標價$ 4.400

嘉華國際(0173.HK) - 上海項目前景樂觀,香港項目策略正確

公司簡介

嘉華國際為本地綜合房地產發展商及投資者,物業分怖於香港﹑上海﹑廣州及東南亞,涵蓋住宅﹑甲級寫字樓﹑酒店﹑服務式公寓及商鋪。集團在香港合資發展的項目包括深灣9號﹑天賦海灣﹑御金國峯等。集團的主要業務設於中國內地的珠江三角洲及長江三角洲。物業發展項目主要位於上海及廣州等一線城市之黃金地段。在中國推售的項目包括上海嘉御庭﹑嘉怡水岸及嘉天匯。

曾淵滄教路 11.09.13: 回報雖低 利率更低 樓市難言有大泡沫

回報雖低 利率更低 樓市難言有大泡沫
英國《經濟學人》雜誌,以目前買樓收租的回報率相對比較歷史平均值的數據來衡量樓市是否處於泡沫階段,結果香港排名世界第一,即泡沫化最嚴重的地方。

一九九○年,我以120萬元買下匯景花園一個單位,每月收租8,000元,包差餉及管理費。目前,該物業市值630萬元,但租金值上升至16,000元,同樣包差餉、地租、管理費,在不考慮差餉、管理員、地租的成本之下,當年的回報率為8%,今日的回報率僅3%。因此,如果我們以租金回報率來衡量,目前的確是大泡沫。但是,目前你向銀行借錢買樓,銀行收取的年利率不足3%。當年我買樓,銀行收取的年利率超過10%。因此,收租回報率是肯定與銀行利率掛鈎的,是不是泡沫?在不同的利率環境之下是不容易下定義的。

麥嘉華:馬股不便宜但安全

麥嘉華:馬股不便宜但安全
Created 09/10/2013 - 17:30
(吉隆坡10日訊)有“末日博士”之稱的麥嘉華(Marc Faber)認為,馬股估值雖不便宜,但確實比美股更安全的投資避風港。

他在“聽大師一席話:投資策略:錢該投在何處”研討會上說,美聯儲量化寬鬆(QE)退市,全球市場也將隨美股走跌,馬股也不會例外,但大馬經濟相對平衡和保護,相信衝擊不會太大,但相信美股跑贏新興市場時間已近尾聲,標準普爾500指數和道瓊斯工商指數再創新高可能性不大。

“美股表現超越大市,土耳其、印尼等新興市場也因經常賬赤字、貨幣走貶等因素遭受龐大拋壓,相比之下,大馬股市縱然估值不便宜,但至少穩定得可讓人高枕無憂。”

中國銀行(3988.HK) - 盈利表現好於預期

推介日期   06-09-2013 
投資建議持有
建議時股價$ 3.450
買入價N/A
目標價$ 4.100


中國銀行(3988.HK) - 盈利表現好於預期

公司概要

中國銀行於1912年2月成立,是目前中國國際化和多元化程度最高的銀行。1994年中國銀行改為國有獨資銀行,2004年8月更名為中國銀行股份有限公司。2006年6月及7月中國銀行分別在香港及上海上市,成為中國首家A+H股上市的商業銀行。2011年中國銀行成為中國及新興市場國家唯一入選全球系統重要性銀行的銀行。按總資產計,截止2013年6月末,中國銀行為中國第4大銀行。

曾淵滄-股市资讯专栏 13.09.2013

曾渊沧博士专栏
文: 曾渊沧博士 2013年09月13日 曾渊沧博士专栏
8月28日,新加坡与香港的股市大跌。市场传出,美、英、法国很快要攻打敍利亚。当年美国总统布什打阿富汗、打伊拉克,至今泥足深陷,每年死了好些美军,却没有办法真正控制这两个国家。敍利亚不是石油国家,目前的巴沙尔政权也不是回教恐怖分子。相反的,反对他的人中,极端回教恐怖主义者还真不少,我真怀疑奥巴马有多大的诱因在敍利亚打仗。

敍利亚乱局已出现了一年以上,真要打,去年就打了。去年美国推翻了利比亚的卡达菲,换来的是美国大使在利比亚被杀,是新政权成立后被杀。美军虽没有攻打埃及,但人人知道前总统穆巴拉克是被美国推翻的,结果也一样不讨好。今日,埃及亲美的军人政府被全世界声讨,奥巴马也不得不做个样,开口谴责,但口动手不动。美国的确全无诱因真正全面地攻打敍利亚,因为推翻现政权后,取而代之的,很可能是极端反美的回教恐怖分子。奥巴马从一开始只打算小小的“惩罚”敍利亚政府军使用化学武器。

颜子伟: 顺境逆境也会有结束的一天

顺境逆境也会有结束的一天
文: 颜子伟 (译:麦美莹) 2013年09月13日 展望
有很多理由不得不高唱《友谊万岁(Auld Lang Syne)》,一首话别或象征结束的歌曲,其一是因为在替《股市资讯》撰文这么多年后,这将会是我最后一篇为本刊撰写的文章。我在2000年5月加入《股市资讯》出任研究分析员,虽然我在2006年离开公司往外发展,但我一直没有停止写稿,我很感激管理层给我这个机会,刊登我的文章。

另外一个原因要高唱《友谊万岁》是因为多年来与我们息息相关的量化宽松(QE)政策,终于将会离我们而去。甜头(真的吗?)终究不可能一直给个不停,因为太多的甜头可能会弄巧成拙。美国联邦储备局迟早会结束量化宽松,无论是由伯南克或者是他的继承人出手,正如伯南克本人已多次暗示及其委员会成员也接着作出附和,否则,美国经济可能会面对庞大的债务,而最终通胀将不受控制。

Friday, September 13, 2013

受惠冷岳2‧勇達前景可期

受惠冷岳2‧勇達前景可期
Created 09/12/2013 - 17:42
(吉隆坡12日訊)勇達集團(ENGTEX,5056,主板貿服組)料可從政府的冷岳2(Langat 2)水務基礎設施開銷中受惠,加上上半年業績表現亮眼,因此儘管該公司股價年初至今已漲逾35%,肯納格研究仍認為該公司具有買進價值。

勇達集團為大馬水管製造的領導業者之一,同時也是國內雙向韌性鋼鐵(DI)市場業者以及少數能夠製造2千600毫米大口徑軟鐵管(MS)的製造商之一;此外,該公司其他優勢還包括大馬首3家鐵絲網之一與最大的PVF產品製造商。

Oldtown : FMCG To Grow Faster (MKE)

Oldtown Berhad
Buy (unchanged)
Share price: MYR2.46
Target price: MYR3.55 (unchanged)
FMCG To Grow Faster

More excitement in FMCG. Post analyst briefing, we maintain our view that OTB will perform better from 2QFY3/14 onwards, mainly driven by stronger growth in the FMCG segment, which has already penetrated the Thailand and Taiwan markets. For the F&B segment, the Malaysian operations will still be the growth driver. We keep our earnings forecasts, BUY call and TP of MYR3.55 (21x CY14 PER).

Opportunity calls with GST (CIMB)

Opportunity calls with GST
The likely introduction of the goods and services tax (GST) should be positive for the mobile carriers as they would no longer have to absorb the 6% sales tax for prepaid users. DiGi would benefit the most as 71% of its revenues are prepaid vs 58% at Celcom and 55% at Maxis.

 The sector and our stock calls remain a Neutral across the board despite this potential development as the impact would be limited. Assuming that the telcos are able to recover only half the tax since we think that some consumers would reduce their usage when GST is imposed, we estimate a 3-6% lift for CY15 core net profit and 3-5% for target prices. M1 is our top pick in the region.

曾淵滄專欄 13.09.13:不要為粒糖急沽貨

恒指一連兩天走勢一模一樣,先升破23000點,午後突然急瀉而下,臨收市又再造好,收復部份失地,但最終收市依然升不上23000點,加上累積升幅不少,不少人會謹慎處理投資組合,有甚麼風吹草動就急急沽貨。如果你手上持重貨,經紀一定會勸你減磅,先沽出部份獲利,許多人就是因為擔心賬面上已獲得的利潤會化為烏有,便寧願沽貨將利潤袋袋平安,但所謂獲利往往只有一粒糖。

9月17日、18日,美國聯儲局開會了,擔心退市嗎?美國道指已重上15000點,這說明退市之事已經被美國投資者消化了,臨開會的一兩天,市場或許會有反覆,但不必太擔心。

Dry Bulk Shipping: Will the capesize rally spread? (CIMB)

Dry Bulk Shipping
Will the capesize rally spread?
NEUTRAL - Maintained

▊ The BDI rally over the past month has narrowly focused on capesizes, driven by robust Chinese restocking of iron ore. Capesize rates should rise for a couple more weeks, supported by good steel demand in China, though the action may not spread to the smaller vessels. We stay Neutral on the sector, with Pacific Basin and Maybulk as top picks as they are fundamentally strong and trading below their SOP. Stock catalysts include a gradual but broad recovery in dry bulk rates from 2014. We have an Underperform call on PSL on valuation grounds, and particularly highlight STXPO as our top sell as it is technically insolvent. We lower our target for STXPO to W295 (from W1,380) in this report.

Yangzijiang Shipbuilding: Improving Ship Orders Could Drive Re-rating (DMG)

Yangzijiang Shipbuilding: Improving Ship Orders Could Drive Re-rating
(BUY, SGD0.94, TP: SGD1.31)
We upgrade Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (YZJ) from Neutral to BUY with  a higher TP of SGD1.31 vs SGD1.00 previously. In our view, the  shipbuilding capacity cut in China and the recovery of ship orders in  the dry bulk sector arising from improved supply and demand will  drive the stock’s re-rating. Our SGD1.31 TP implies 9.5x FY14F P/E.

The Baltic Dry Index jumped 120% YTD and 54% in the past month due  to slower supply growth while demand remains steady. Ship prices have  risen by 5-12% from the bottom six months ago, and seasoned shipping  players are expanding their fleet aggressively.

Overseas Education : Expansion on course despite budget overrun (DBSV)

Overseas Education Limited:
BUY S$0.775;
Expansion on course despite budget overrun;
Price Target: 12-Month S$1.01 (Prev S$1.03)

•New campus development finalised and awarded. Timing on track but S$261m investment costs exceed S$200m budget
•We raise our investment figure to S$280m but fine-tune staff costs & enrolment assumptions post-management update
•DCF fair value tweaked down to S$1.01

Engtex : Pipeline To Exciting Water Sector (Kenanga)

Engtex Group Bhd -
Last Price - RM1.16
Kenanga Trading Buy RM1.59
Pipeline To Exciting Water Sector

INVESTMENT MERIT

- Market leader. Engtex is one of the leading pipes players in Malaysia. It is one of the players in the domestic duopoly ductile iron (DI) market and is also amongst the few players able to manufacture large diameter mild steel (MS) pipes up to 2600mm. Other attributes include being the top 3 wire mesh producers in Malaysia and largest player of non-O&G pipes and valves & fittings (PVF). Engtex’s production capacity of about 204k tonne annually is spread out between DI(60k), MS(36k) and wire mesh(108k).

Bond Yield going SREITs going (DBSV)

Bond Yield going   SREITs going  

.Position for a short-term rebound in S-REITs as bond yield looks poised for a pullback
.S-REITs picks – AREIT, Suntec REIT, MCT & CDL HT


Start of QE tapering fully anticipated – Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke gave financial markets nearly four months to prepare for QE tapering, which feels like a “millennium” in high-speed financial markets. US 10-year bond yield, for example, has risen from 1.63% at the beginning of May to touch the critical 3% level last week. Equities have also reacted with S-REITs bearing the brunt of the selling in recent months. The FTSE ST REIT underperformed, falling 20% from May’s high.

Salcon selling off China water concessions for RM518m

Salcon selling off China water concessions for RM518m

Roziana Hamsawi
bt@mediaprima.com.my
2013/09/13

KUALA LUMPUR: Salcon Bhd is selling its water concessions in China for RM518 million to focus on water business in the country and expand its property development.

The group, late yesterday, announced that it is disposing of all its shares in six water companies in China to Beijing Enterprise Water Group Ltd for some RM518.3 million.

Upon completion, the deal will bring in total cash of RM284 million and profit of RM94.6 million, and result in zero borrowing to the group.

Thursday, September 12, 2013

实康工程5亿售中国水务资產

(吉隆坡12日讯)实康工程(SALCON,8567,主板贸服股)宣佈,与北控水务集团达成条件式买卖协议(SPA),脱售旗下实康达阔环境私人有限公司和实康江苏(香港)有限公司的所有股权,以及60%权益子公司--实康水务(亚洲)有限公司旗下的实康福建(香港)有限公司、实康浙江(香港)有限公司、实康临沂(香港)有限公司及实康山东(香港)有限公司的所有股权,献售价为9亿5500万人民幣(约5亿1828万令吉)。

实康工程通过文告指出,儘管上述子公司在中国的特许水务业务为集团带来正面的贡献,惟管理层预测中国的营运前景將受到不明朗的经济前景和水价上调限制影响,而面对更大的挑战。

此外,该集团也面临中国本土业者的剧烈竞爭。

杨忠礼电力 购P1恐提高成本

杨忠礼电力 购P1恐提高成本
Created 09/12/2013 - 12:51
目标价:1.58令吉

最新进展

媒体报道指出,杨忠礼电力(YTLPOWR,6742,主板基建股)、数码网络(DIGI,6947,主板基建股)与马电讯(TM,4863,主板贸服股),皆有意收购绿驰通讯(GPACKET,0082,主板科技股)旗下Packet One Networks(P1)的控制股权。

但绿驰通讯否认此事,澄清公司未与任何一方达至股权脱售协议。

亚航X 部分新航线有风险

亚航X 部分新航线有风险
Created 09/12/2013 - 12:50
目标价:1.30令吉

最新进展

亚航X(AAX,5238,主板贸服股)是投资长途廉价航空市场的佳选,因为这领域正极快速增长,比整体航空市场的5%增幅多2至3倍;同时,也比全方位服务航空更具抗跌能力。

亚航X的经营模式,完全采用长途廉价航空,机位密度和使用率都偏高,并分开一些不必要的内容。

此外,亚航X也是存活最久的长途廉价航空公司。

Faber favours stable Malaysian equities

Faber favours stable Malaysian equities
Business & Markets 2013
Written by Kamarul Anwar of theedgemalaysia.com    
Wednesday, 11 September 2013 09:15

KUALA LUMPUR: Renowned Swiss investor and author Dr Marc Faber, famous for correctly predicting many market falls in the past, has described Malaysian equities as “not gloomy” as they are stable despite the country’s “unexciting” economy.

“If you want to sleep at night, just own some Malaysian stocks,” he told an audience attending a seminar organised by MIDF Amanah Investment Bank Bhd in Kuala Lumpur yesterday.

昇阳船务看好造船维修业务

昇阳船务看好造船维修业务
Created 09/12/2013 - 12:30
(古晋11日讯)昇阳船务机构(SYSCORP,5173,主板贸服股)表示,对船只制造和维修业务前景感到乐观。

公司财务总监林理查(译音)接受《星报》访问时表示,公司持有总值7亿6200万令吉的船只建造合约;其中大部分是在今年获颁。

“目前的船只建造订单,足以让公司忙碌两年,我们也积极开拓新商机及竞标新工程。”

其中达洋企业(DAYANG,5141,主板贸服股)子公司DESB海事服务私人有限公司,在上周颁发总值7000万令吉合约予昇阳船务机构子公司———昇阳船坞私人有限公司,以兴建一艘岸外作业船。

亚太准备迎接美联储退场 印尼风险最大料再升息

亚太准备迎接美联储退场 印尼风险最大料再升息
Created 09/12/2013 - 12:43
(首尔11日讯)美国联储局(FED)下周或决定缩减刺激举措造成全球市场震荡之际,亚太地区有四国的央行周四将召开政策会议,市场预期印尼面对的风险最大,其央行更可能被迫再度升息。

这四国———印尼、菲律宾、韩国及纽西兰,自联储局5月期间首度暗示可能逐步停止货币宽松政策,就承受市场剧烈震荡。

它们当中,只有印尼有投资资金严重外流的情况;该国正需要资本流入来支持经常账赤字,其次季赤字已相等于国内生产总值(GDP)的4.4%。

Greater KL's Integrated Rail Network To Push Property Prices

Greater KL's Integrated Rail Network To Push Property Prices
Posted Date: Sep 02, 2013
By: iProperty.com

There has been a growing effort among planners, real estate professionals and economists to identify not only the economic benefits of alternative transportation modes, but also the impact that they have on housing prices and value retention. - by Caroline Chan

KL is already on the global map as one of the most progressive cities of Southeast Asia. Its position as a regional hub is expected to strengthen with the implementation of a comprehensive transformation plan that will propel KL and its surrounding urban centres, known as Greater KL, into a vibrant metropolis that is on par with other iconic global cities. The city’s transformation is aimed at enhancing its attractiveness as an economic centre, its liveability and its connectivity. The biggest initiative undertaken under Greater KL’s transformation plan is addressing the growing demand for an efficient integrated public transportation system.

玉楼金阙:如何长久? (2)——杨忠礼机构的派息率●陈金阙

玉楼金阙:如何长久? (2)——杨忠礼机构的派息率●陈金阙
Created 09/11/2013 - 12:57
上期说到杨忠礼机构(YTLCORP)在2011年以4.50令吉全购杨忠礼洋灰(YTLCMT)。杨忠礼洋灰在2012年4月16日除牌,除牌时杨忠礼集团持有93.29%股权。

到了6月13日无条件献购期限截止时,杨忠礼集团(YTL)共持有99.57%股权。

杨忠礼洋灰是成功被除牌了,只是杨忠礼机构始终欠临门一脚,无法强制收购剩余少许股票,剩下非常少数的小股东成功“死里逃生”,继续持有非上市公司的杨忠礼洋灰股票。

玉楼金阙——如何长久? (1):赚得多给得少●陈金阙

玉楼金阙——如何长久? (1):赚得多给得少●陈金阙
Created 09/04/2013 - 12:05
其实我还有很多时事要写,例如审计监督委员会(Audit Oversight Board,AOB)的事,公积金改变户头一最低储蓄额的事,但是我最喜欢的还是谈谈股票轶事,所以搁了几个星期没谈,还是回去写写我的拿手好戏,以飨读者。

本周开始要探讨的,是大小股东的利益冲突;好股抱住不放,是否有朝一日一定会如愿以偿,得到合理的回酬;还有,随时保持理性分析,是否让投资者减少失误?

上述所言,都是大课题,我也担心自己空有抱负,却眼高手低,写不出一个所以然来,所以事先请读者多多包涵,若不中意,可以跳过不看。

YTL Power International - Green Packet denies any offer to acquire P1

YTL Power International -
Price Target:1.58
Last Price:1.70
Green Packet denies any offer to acquire P1

-  We maintain HOLD on YTL Power International (YTLP), with an unchanged fair value of RM1.58/share based on a 15% discount to our sum-of-parts value of RM1.86/share.

-  The Star reported today that the YTL Group, DiGi.Com and TM are separately looking at acquiring a controlling stake in Green Packet’s 57%-owned Packet One Networks S/B (P1), which operates the WiMax 2.3GHz spectrum.

The Rupee & Rupiah Plummet – Just A Taste Of What’s To Come?

 11 SEPTEMBER 2013
The Rupee & Rupiah Plummet – Just A Taste Of What’s To Come?
By Andre Lee

Over the past few years, emerging markets have seen huge capital inflows on the back of excess liquidity in developed markets.  The era of ‘cheap money’ was precipitated by unprecedented quantitative easing programs in the United States.

However, emerging markets have witnessed their currencies take a beating ever since Ben Bernanke said on May 22 that the Federal Reserve might begin to taper its US$85 billion monthly bond purchases if the economy picks up.  Investors have begun to relocate capital to safer havens as the yields offered by emerging markets become less attractive in an environment with higher interest rates.

CapitaRetail China Trust : Waiting to Strike (DBSV)

CapitaRetail China Trust
BUY S$1.35
STI: 3,108.19
Price Target: 12-month S$1.60
Waiting to Strike

• Growth engines humming in tune
• Completion of inorganic growth initiatives to propel DPU to grow at a 2-year CAGR of 7%
• BUY, TP S$1.60

Growth engines humming in tune. The coming two years could be transformational for CRCT. After finetuning its portfolio tenant mix and the completion of various asset enhancements, CRCT’s portfolio of malls have been consistently seeing strong shopper traffic and tenant sales, resulting in higher rental reversions (averaging 17% over 2Q12-2Q13) compared to the average of 12% over 1Q11-1Q12. With a renewed tenant mix and a stronger operational footing, we believe this trend is likely to continue going forward.

Yangzijiang : Momentum picking up (CIMB)

Yangzijiang Shipbuilding
Current S$0.98
Target S$1.25
Momentum picking up

 The re-rating catalyst for YZJ is the potential for more shipbuilding orders, backed by a sustained climb in the Baltic Dry Index. The BDI is supported by the stronger steel production and macro fundamentals in China.

The heightened order momentum and FY15 delivery slots being quickly snapped up suggest that YZJ’s order drought has bottomed out. We like YZJ as it is one of the last privately-owned Chinese shipyards with decent profitability. We keep our Outperform rating and target price (based on 1.4x FY13 P/BV; 1 s.d. below its 5-year mean). The stock has the highest dividend yield of 4.8% among the ship/rig builders.

Dry-Bulk Shipping Rates Rise on China Demand

Dry-Bulk Shipping Rates Rise on China Demand
Climb in Baltic Dry Index Lifts Hope of Commodities Recovery

LONDON—A sudden surge in China's demand for iron ore has helped push global shipping freight rates to their highest level in more than 18 months, raising hopes that a recent downturn in some commodity prices is nearing an end.

The Baltic Dry Index, which tracks global freight rates for ships carrying dry-bulk commodities such as coal, iron ore and grain, finished Wednesday up 4.6% and at its highest closing since January 2012. It has risen 36% this month alone.

曾淵滄專欄 12.09.13:將懶人基金再變種

《蘋果日報》財經版的記者編輯們很用功,不但報道財經新聞,也做研究,為股民提供一些有實際大量統計資料為論據的新投資方法,昨日有關懶人基金的報道很有創意,以後應該多多做同類的研究。

報道所指將50隻恒指成份股不分比重,每隻買入2%,而不是依恒指組成的比重來投資,結果不分比重的回報遠勝依照恒指比重的投資,我估計,最可能的原因是新加入恒指的股份,表現比在恒指成份股中保持多年的股份強,實際情況是不是如此,得花些時間統計研究。如果我的估計正確,那麼,以後只用集中力量每年買入新加入恒指的股,並持有數年。當然,所謂數年,到底多少年才是最佳的持有年數,也該進行統計研究。

Regional transport stocks: Dry bulkers, ports and airlines to ride upturn in demand, says Credit Suisse’s Ross

Written by Kang Wan Chern  
Monday, 09 September 2013 12:56
Timothy Ross, head of transport research in Asia-Pacific for Credit Suisse, believes now is the time to pick up selected stocks in the regional transport sector as consumption in the US and China improves and exports begin to pick up once again. “We have seen signs that the West has probably been through the worst and China looks like it is starting to lift off the bottom. [So], we expect transport stocks in the shipping, ports and aviation sectors that are leveraged to those economies to outperform over the next six to 18 months,” Ross tells The Edge Singapore during a recent interview.

Midas Holdings: Keeping the faith (OCBC)

Midas Holdings:
Fair value S$0.65
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.005
versus: Current price S$0.49

Keeping the faith
• High-speed contracts will eventually come
• Order wins will be re-rating catalyst
• Unchanged FV estimate of S$0.65

The recent public tender for 91 high-speed train sets by China Railway Corporation (CRC) was awarded to CSR Qingdao Sifang, which we believe is a disappointment for Midas Holdings since Midas is not its major supplier.

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT : Set for Next Growth Phase (S&P)

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT
Price: SGD1.49 Date: September 10, 2013
52-week Share Price Range (SGD) 1.36 - 1.87

Set for Next Growth Phase
Experienced management with strong sponsors: AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT (the Trust) has an experienced management team which is committed to deliver stable distributions and long-term capital growth to unitholders. Its two sponsors also have a strong track record in fund management and an established presence in a number of regional countries, which the Trust can tap on for future growth.

帶領潮流變落後 iPhone神話不再

帶領潮流變落後 iPhone神話不再
欄名:社評

蘋果前晚發表新版iPhone,被指欠新意,未能為市場帶來驚喜,反添失望,蘋果高企股價難免受壓。此揭示市場領導者若僅留戀昔日光輝,既未能創造新潮流,更不懂求變回應市場,在激烈的競爭中勢由領先者變墮後者。

欠創新拒求變 蘋果墮後癥結

蘋果推新智能手機惹全球注視,惟新iPhone 5s僅小改款,除處理器略快、顏色選擇增加,以及一些小功能外,未見驚喜;擬攻佔中階市場的iPhone 5c售價高昂,競爭力成疑。新機款公布後,蘋果股價大跌、亞太區的蘋果概念股昨亦受壓,市場失望溢於言表。

Wednesday, September 11, 2013

Yangzijiang climbs on optimism orders will rise

Written by Bloomberg  
Wednesday, 11 September 2013 17:47
Yangzijiang Shipbuilding Holdings, China’s No. 2 private shipyard, jumped by the most since October 2011 as Credit Suisse Group AG and DBS Group Holdings raised their ratings on optimism orders will rise.

Yangzijiang climbed 6.1% to $1.04 at the close in Singapore. More than 54 million shares changed hands, six times the average trading volume in the past three months, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

“With its strong financial position and low production cost, we expect Yangzijiang to benefit disproportionately from a recovery in newbuild orders,” Credit Suisse analysts Gerald Wong and Louis Chua wrote in a report today. The brokerage raised its rating to outperform from neutral and lifted its share-price forecast to $1.30 from $1.10.

DiGi, YTL said to be keen on P1

DiGi, YTL said to be keen on P1

BY CECILIA KOK
CECILIA_KOK@THESTAR.COM.MY

PETALING JAYA: A three-way fight for the acquisition of a controlling stake in Packet One Networks Sdn Bhd (P1) may ensue, sources said, adding that the three possible parties eyeing the WiMAX operator were DiGi.Com Bhd, the YTL group and Telekom Malaysia Bhd (TM).

P1 is a 57% unit of listed Green Packet Bhd and owns valuable wireless spectrum. It owns 30MHz in the 2.3GHz band (that is used for its WiMAX network), and was one of the eight companies to be awarded last year with 20MHz of the 2.6GHz spectrum, which would be suitable for long-term evolution (LTE) or 4G-LTE type of services in the future.

High speed rail unaffected by Budget 2014 cuts

High speed rail unaffected by Budget 2014 cuts
Business & Markets 2013
Written by Ben Shane Lim of theedgemalaysia.com    
Wednesday, 11 September 2013 09:43

KUALA LUMPUR: The high speed rail (HSR) project linking Kuala Lumpur and Singapore will not be affected by the government’s 2014 Budget that is scheduled to be unveiled by Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak on Oct 25.

“As of current information, we do not expect it [HSR] to be affected by the budget. We are still looking at a 2020 completion date,” said Land Public Transport Commission chairman, Tan Sri Syed Hamid Albar, at the Rail Business Asia 2013 conference yesterday.

Tin shortage worsens as Indonesia rules curb supply: commodities

Tin shortage worsens as Indonesia rules curb supply: commodities
Business & Markets 2013
Written by Bloomberg    
Wednesday, 11 September 2013 12:04

(Sept. 11): The tin market is poised for a fifth year of shortages as new rules in Indonesia curb exports, driving up costs for manufacturers of everything from tablet computers to televisions to telephones.

Indonesia, accounting for 40 percent of global supply, introduced a rule Aug. 30 that refined tin must be traded on a local exchange before it can be shipped. A lack of buyers on domestic bourses and a delay in trading permits spurred PT Timah, the largest producer, and smaller smelters to halt most sales. Exports may drop 19 percent this year, Timah’s Corporate Secretary Agung Nugroho said.

马航转盈提供国库脱售良机 售价料至少每股60仙

马航转盈提供国库脱售良机 售价料至少每股60仙
Created 09/10/2013 - 12:50
(吉隆坡9日讯)马航(MAS,3786,主板贸服股)转亏为盈料将提供政府“出场”机会,而潜在买家包括私有化达人丹斯里赛莫达在内,但相信出价要达每股60仙方可让国库控股(Khazanah)满意脱售。

接受彭博社访问分析员普遍认为,马航如今正步上对的道路,成功转亏为盈后将可激励股价,同时也显现公司价值,让政府更有理由脱售股权。

辉立资产管理公司总投资长洪国兴表示:“脱售股权绝对是可行,但马航必须做出成绩,让其他人有收购的信心。”

Risks in AirAsia X's growth plan, some new routes may not be profitable

Risks in AirAsia X's growth plan, some new routes may not be profitable

BY CHOONG EN HAN
HAN@THESTAR.COM.MY

PETALING JAYA: AirAsia X Bhd’s (AAX) aggressive fleet growth plan of seven aircraft each in 2013 and 2014 may pose some risks to the low-cost long-haul airline, according to Maybank Investment Bank Bhd (Maybank IB).

It expressed its concerns that the airline’s high-capacity growth with the taking delivery of 14 aircraft could hinder revenue growth and consume capital.

置富研提升嘉湖銀座

置富產業信託(00778)擬斥資58.49億元,收購天水圍嘉湖銀座商場,將於下周一於特別股東會投票表決,副行政總裁趙宇表示,一旦獲通過,會研究加入工廠直銷(Factory Outlet)元素,預期資產提升工程費用(AEI)約1.5億元。

趙宇表示,與置富旗下其他商場相似,未來嘉湖銀座商場會以服務當區居民為主,目前所見可提升的地方,包括收回佔用樓面較大商戶的部分樓面再整合,加強餐飲及日用品等組合。轄下馬鞍山廣場及置富第一城的同類經驗,投資回報率達73%及逾25%。

麦嘉华:马股是天堂 看好银行消费股

(吉隆坡10日讯)隨著全球股市已经升至较高水平,加上外围因素的干扰,麦嘉华有限公司董事经理麦嘉华博士(Marc Faber)认为,大马是个不错的投资环境,即使大马股市的表现不太令人感到振奋,但与其他国家相比却相对稳定和平衡。

麦嘉华表示,全球股市已经度过了4年半的牛市已见顶。

一旦美国股市大跌,全球股市也將会陪跌。但虽如此,大马股市却是他喜欢的市场之一。

麦嘉华是在出席一项由MIDF研究主办的投资讲座之后,在记者会上发表上述谈话。

INSTACOM WORKING TO TRANSFER TO BURSA MALAYSIA MAIN BOARD AFTER SOARING 1H PROFITS

INSTACOM WORKING TO TRANSFER TO BURSA MALAYSIA MAIN BOARD AFTER SOARING 1H PROFITS
Monday 09/09/2013


.Instacom 2Q PBT soars to RM7.6 million with record revenues of RM36.3m. 1H FY13 net profits amounts to RM14.5 million.
.RHB Research makes a 'buy’ call on Instacom with fair value of 46 sen after recommending company as a 'Top 5 Jewel’ on Bursa Malaysia.
.Healthy order book with Instacom confident of securing another RM50m worth of contracts by year-end.
.Bonus warrants list today, providing potential investors with lower entry point

Will Apple's new phones move the stock?



Cordlife : Racing Ahead (MKE)

Cordlife Group
Buy (unchanged)
Share price: SGD1.305
Target price: SGD1.44 (from SGD1.47)
Racing Ahead

Moving up north. Just a few months after acquiring access into Philippines, Indonesia and India, Cordlife has acquired 19.9% of Stemlife Bhd for RM30m. Stemlife is the largest publicly-listed cord blood bank in Malaysia. It also holds a 40% stake in Stemlife Thailand. The acquisition will be made either fully in cash or 10% cash and 8 million new shares at SGD1.30 per share.

Gains control despite only 19.9% equity. Cordlife bought its stake from Stemlife’s founders and key management – CEO Sharon Low (who has already been on sabbatical for a year) and Christina Lim, her aunt. This is essentially a control stake as they will be ceding management to Cordlife. Berjaya Group’s Vincent Tan owns 12.1%.

Breadtalk : More than just bread (CIMB)

Breadtalk Group Ltd
Current S$0.87
More than just bread

 Breadtalk’s share price has risen 27.9% YTD. We believe this reflects an increased investor interest in the F&B sector as well as the group’s extensive retail presence in the region. Minor International’s 11% stake continues to drive expectations of a general offer.

Breadtalk is still in an expansion phase and its debt levels are high as it had to take on additional debt to fund its international headquarters. Its revenue continues to grow yoy, but the gross and net profit margins have suffered. Benchmarked at 16.6x CY14 P/E (1 s.d. above its 6-years historical average), the stock could be worth S$0.86 per share.

Rotary : Rotating a turnaround (AM)

Rotary Eng Ltd:
LAST CLOSE: S$0.585
FAIR VALUE: S$0.74
Rotating a turnaround

Initiate with Buy call and target price of S$0.74. Fair value based on 10X FY14 P/E. We see short term catalysts coming from stronger than expected order wins and significant improvement in margins. Current order book as of August 2013 stands at a robust S$1b. We expect the company to garner more orders with decent margins ahead.

Focus on EPC Tankage. The company is a market leader in Singapore when it comes to EPC of storage tanks. It has completed 50% of tankage works in Singapore such as the Universal Terminal and Oiltanking Merak projects. This is a critical differentiating factor that allows the company to stand out against its peers and bid for major tenders around the world.

CapitaMalls Asia: Stabilizing fundamentals in China (OCBC)

CapitaMalls Asia:
Fair value S$2.55
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.04
versus: Current price S$1.88

Stabilizing fundamentals in China
•Chinese data points to modest recovery
•Key positive for CMA’s China portfolio
•Long term outlook remains intact

Latest Chinese economic data-points has mostly been above view, painting a picture of modestly recovering fundamentals. Over the last month, the Chinese PMI, trade and inflation figures have mostly beat expectations which increasingly establishes a base case for at least a 7.5% economic growth rate this year – the target set by Chinese authorities.

FOOD EMPIRE: Insights Into Its Current Transition Phase -- And Future

FOOD EMPIRE: Insights Into Its Current Transition Phase -- And Future
Written by Leong Chan Teik
Tuesday, 10 September 2013 07:00

OOD EMPIRE reported 1H2013 profit after tax of US$9.1 million as compared to US$8.7 million in 1H12.

We met up last Friday with Chin Tze Ting, personal assistant to the chairman of Food Empire, for clarity on certain parts of the business.

Food Empire is in a state of transition -- it has just tweaked its business model, and it is constructing two new plants in Iskandar, Johor to produce ingredients for its coffee mix business.

Mudajaya : Secures coal supply for India IPP (CIMB)

Mudajaya
Current RM2.63
Target RM3.24
Secures coal supply for India IPP

 We expect the overhang on the stock to gradually diminish following yesterday's news that the group, via 26%-associate RKM Powergen, has secured coal supply for its Indian IPP. This is positive news and locks in associate power earnings from 2014 on. Maintain Outperform.

We roll over valuations to end-2014 and apply a higher 15.9x P/E (15.6x previously) in our RNAV valuation, in line with our revised target market P/E. Our target price rises but remains pegged to a 40% RNAV discount. We anticipate a strong re-rating as past delays in the signing of coal supply have been a major investor concern. This news, the signing of coal supply for phase 2 and job wins are catalysts in 2H.

曾淵滄專欄 11.09.13:未見大量新錢流入

看來敍利亞戰爭是打不成了,我早已說過,奧巴馬沒有打敍利亞的誘因,嘴巴說要打,實際上一直在找個體面的下台階。美國總統、英國首相根本不需要國會授權才可以打仗,英國首相不想支持奧巴馬,借國會反對為理由向奧巴馬說不,奧巴馬覺得借國會不授權來找下台階是好主意,也要求國會討論攻打敍利亞之事,美國人只有20%支持攻打敍利亞,國會怎麼可能通過攻打敍利亞的議案?被國會否決也有損總統權威,現在可好了,聰明的普京為奧巴馬提供另一個更好更有體面的下台階,那就是要求敍利亞政府交出所有的化學武器,由聯合國負責銷毀,敍利亞政府當然樂意這麼做,以避免捱炸,奧巴馬也可以因敍利亞政府再也沒有化學武器而停止懲罰敍利亞。

TEE Land : TEE-ing up for growth (VR)

TEE Land
Increase Exposure
TEE-ing up for growth
 Intrinsic Value S$0.585
 Prev Closing  S$0.360

 TEE Land has a track record in developing low rise private apartments in Singapore. With a robust pipeline of projects, the company’s earnings are set to grow in the next few years. The company has adopted three strategies to propel growth: (1) focusing on IRR of projects for faster capital recycling, (2) applying what they have learnt in Singapore to their overseas ventures, and (3) reducing reliance on Singapore and property development diversification.

Midas :The Catalyst Worth Waiting For Is Here (MKE)

Midas Holdings
Buy (unchanged)
Share price: SGD0.475
Target price: SGD0.75 (unchanged)
The Catalyst Worth Waiting For Is Here

 Up-stream customers won high-speed train orders. Last weekend, China Railway Corp (CRC) announced the result of its first high-speed train tender in past two years. A total of 159 train sets order have been split between CSR (108 train sets) and CNR (51 train sets). We believe this is just the beginning of a new train purchase cycle by Chinese government. As one of the key suppliers to CSR and CNR, we expect Midas to win around RMB250-300m contracts in the high-speed train sector this year and RMB1b each year in FY14/15. We continue to like Midas as we expect positive news flow and contract wins to continue to drive the share price up. Maintain BUY and target price SGD0.75, pegged to 1.5x P/B.

AirAsia X: King Of Low-Cost, Long-Haul (MKE)

AirAsia X
Buy(new)
Share price: MYR1.05
Target price: MYR1.30 (new)
King Of Low-Cost, Long-Haul

High growth potential. AirAsia X is an excellent exposure to the low cost, long-haul (LCLH) industry which is enjoying breakneck growth rate and outdoing the general aviation market growth of 5.0% by a factor of 2-3x. The LCLH segment is relatively more defensive compared to full service carriers (FSC), as more people switch to budget travel during times of economic downturn to save cost. We initiate coverage with a

BUY call, with a target price of MYR1.30/share based on 15x FY14 PER, which is the upper band of the typical aviation multiple of between 8-15x to factor in AAX’s strong growth potential.

四叔估樓價 最多冧25%

恒基地產(00012)主席李兆基(四叔)認為,假如住宅樓價下挫五成,發展商已經「無錢賺」,預期最多只會下挫25%。他又表示,以後都不想「做太多」農地,其中一個原因是補地價較投地昂貴,直言直接投地會更划算。

港府推出「雙辣招」後,樓市交投萎縮,更有分析員預期樓價有機會下挫五成。不過,李兆基說:「以將軍澳、荃灣為例,現時一手樓平均呎價約8,000元,當中4,000元為地價,4,000元為建築費,跌一半邊有錢賺?」他續認為,最壞情況可能是地價下跌一半,樓價則有機會回落至每方呎6,000元水平。

Tuesday, September 10, 2013

Marc Faber: Malaysia haven for investors compared to US

Marc Faber: Malaysia haven for investors compared to US
Business & Markets 2013
Written by Cynthia Blemin of theedgemalaysia.com    
Tuesday, 10 September 2013 15:10

KUALA LUMPUR (Sept 10): Although Malaysia is not seen as an exciting economy, it is probably the safest haven for foreign investors compared to the US, said renowned investor Dr Marc Faber.

"If you ask me if I should invest in US or Malaysia, I will choose Malaysia," he said at a media briefing after MIDF Investment Bank Bhd's seminar here today.

Despite the recent Malaysian debt outlook downgrade by rating agency Fitch, Faber said Malaysia has strong financials and a "solid banking sytem". As such, investors can put their money in local stocks, he said.

板塊尋寶: REITs步熊市 領匯大鑊

板塊尋寶:
REITs步熊市 領匯大鑊

樓市現處牛市或是步入熊市,坊間爭吵不斷。較樓價滯後約一個月的中原指數,今年3月中旬創新高,報123.66,最新一周報120.86,跌幅只有約2%,難作參考。至於作為領先指標的地產股價,則更能反映樓價陰跌實況。


舖租見頂 易跌難升
地產分類指數今年1月於34485點時見頂,相比較昨日收市29735點,高位累跌近14%。

Ivory Properties to fork out RM1.06b for Plaza Rakyat project

Ivory Properties to fork out RM1.06b for Plaza Rakyat project
Business & Markets 2013
Written by Esther Lee of theedgemalaysia.com    
Tuesday, 10 September 2013 10:13

KUALA LUMPUR: Ivory PROPERTIES [] Bhd will be paying an estimated RM1.06 billion for its proposed acquisition of Plaza Rakyat project after taking into account the amount payable under the conditional acquisition and rehabilitation agreement it had signed.

Notably, the sum is not inclusive of the development cost that the Penang-based property developer will incur.

股海宝藏:金群利抗跌力强产业商

股海宝藏:金群利抗跌力强产业商
Created 09/09/2013 - 14:18
金群利集团(MATRIX,5236,主板产业股)创立于1996年,它是芙蓉和居銮一家信誉卓越的产业发展商,主要发展可负担和有品质的房屋。

目前,金群利集团已经在约1860英亩地段兴建了超过两万间住宅和工业产业,发展总值达到22亿令吉。

金群利集团专攻可负担房屋,符合它发展综合城镇的商业模式。它的商业和工业产业,都兴建在其住宅发展计划当中。

名人觸感館15日沙亞南開幕

名人觸感館15日沙亞南開幕
Created 08/11/2013 - 09:31

(雪蘭莪‧八打靈再也9日訊)你曾想過,不用出國都可以看到栩栩如生的蜡像?或嘗試到類似香港杜麗莎蜡像館的視覺感官效果?雪州沙亞南I公司即將於8月15日隆重推出“大馬首創名人觸感館”,館內展出的蜡像,將加入聲控及動感元素,讓大馬人為之讚嘆!

這間以蜡像為主軸的展覽館,創意來自泰國3D i創意公司的創意設計總監貝納多,曾參與多項世界著名娛樂及主題樂園計劃包括南非的迷失之城、好萊塢環球影城(Universal Studio)及迪拜世嘉共和等項目設計。

基建恐延后政府再打房 产业领域乌云盖顶

基建恐延后政府再打房 产业领域乌云盖顶
Created 09/10/2013 - 07:41
(吉隆坡9日讯)面对基建计划恐延后、打房措施再祭出等不利因素,产业市场如今乌云盖顶,券商认为在“2014年财政预算案”提出更具体的政策方针前,发展商料表现缺缺,更将该领域投评下修至“中和”。

截至今年3月杪,我国家庭债务对国内生产总值(GDP)比例企稳在83%,10至11%的年增幅甚至超越名义国内生产总值的7至8%增长,促使政府不断释出“不满意当前产业购买行为”的意见。

马银行投资研究表示,在家庭债务高企的情况下,打房措施避无可避。

Malaysian Air Recovery Offers Bet on Government Exit: Real M&A

Malaysian Air Recovery Offers Bet on Government Exit: Real M&A
By Angus Whitley & Chong Pooi Koon - Sep 9, 2013

Malaysian Airline System Bhd. (MAS) offers a bargain investment for traders willing to bet on a sale, as a turnaround stokes calls for the government to exit its stake.

Malaysian Air fell to an all-time low this year amid competition from budget airline AirAsia Bhd. (AIRA) Now the company is projected to post its first profit in four years in 2014 on record revenue, according to analysts’ estimates compiled by Bloomberg. With the carrier on the mend, the government may seek to shed its majority ownership by selling or breaking up the $1.6 billion airline, said Malayan Banking Bhd.

Healthcare REITs: Trading on rich valuations (OCBC)

Healthcare REITs: Trading on rich valuations
(Maintain NEUTRAL)
2H13 to be boosted by contribution from new acquisitions
Within the healthcare REITs space, both First REIT (FREIT) and Parkway Life REIT (PLREIT) recently reported 2Q13 results which were in-line with market expectations. Looking ahead, we expect 2H13 DPU to be boosted by new acquisitions. FREIT completed the purchase of two Indonesian hospitals from its sponsor Lippo Karawaci on 22 May this year, with an initial NPI yield of ~9.9%. A full quarter of contribution will kick in from 3Q13. For PLREIT, it completed the acquisition of two nursing homes in Japan on 12 Jul 2013, with the assets expected to generate an initial NPI yield of ~7.1%. Organically, PLREIT will also be able to obtain a higher rental increase of 4.44% (effective 23 August 2013 to 22 August 2014) for its Singapore hospitals, which is based on a CPI + 1% lease formula.

Hospitality REITs: SG hospitality oversupply (OCBC)

Hospitality REITs: SG hospitality oversupply
(Maintain NEUTRAL)
Singapore hotels pull down 2Q13. CDLHT’s 2Q13 NPI contracted  4.4% YoY chiefly due to poorer performance of its Singapore hotels in a tough operating environment. The performance was in line with OIR’s estimates but below the street’s. FEHT’s all-Singapore portfolio was also affected by general industry conditions and 2Q13 NPI missed its IPO prospectus forecast by 6.8%. ART saw a 4.1% YoY drop in 2Q13 NPI due chiefly to its properties in Singapore, China and the depreciation of the JPY. However, ART still managed to post a 3% YoY increase in 2Q13 DPU; a S$2.7m reversal of over-provision of prior years’ tax expense bumped up distributable income, helping to compensate for a greater unit base from a placement in 1Q13.

Office REITs: Rents bottoming out (OCBC)

Office REITs: Rents bottoming out
(Maintain OVERWEIGHT)
Mixed bag of headline numbers in 2Q13
Office REITs displayed a mixed set of performance on their headline numbers in 2Q13 as a few of them have undergone through major overhauls in their portfolio and capital structure. For example, Frasers Commercial Trust (FCOT) saw its NPI decline 13.4% YoY due mainly to the divestment of KeyPoint and its Japan properties, but its DPU jumped 28.5% on lower interest costs and distributions following the redemption of its Convertible Perpetual Preferred Units (CPPUs). Suntec REIT, on the other hand, suffered a 38.5% YoY drop in NPI as part of its crown jewel Suntec City Mall and Suntec Singapore were closed for AEI works. However, distributions to unitholders were cushioned by a capital distribution of S$7.8m from Chijmes sale proceeds. As a result, aggregate NPI for the office REIT subsector fell 11.4% YoY in 2Q13, while the subsector DPU increased by 5.1%.

Overseas retail REITs – No longer in favor (OCBC)

Overseas retail REITs – No longer in favor
(Downgrade to NEUTRAL)
2QCY13 performance in line. CapitaRetail China Trust (CRCT), Fortune Real Estate Investment Trust (FRT) and Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust (LMIRT) all posted 2QCY13 results that were in line with our expectations. FRT and LMRT clocked double-digit growth in NPI and distributable income. In particular, LMRT’s figures were driven by the acquisition of six properties in 4QCY12. For CRCT, DPU fell 1.2% YoY to 2.38 S cents. However, excluding the 57m units issued through private placement in Oct 2012, 2Q13 DPU would have been 2.58 cents, up 7.1%.

Local retail REITs – Still heavy on asset enhancements (OCBC)

Local retail REITs – Still heavy on asset enhancements
(Maintain OVERWEIGHT)
Robust 2Q13 performance as expected
Local retail landlords ended 2Q13 on a positive note, with the majority benefitting from higher secured rents and improved occupancy rates following the completion of AEIs at several of their portfolio assets. Mapletree Commercial Trust (MCT) and Starhill Global REIT (SGREIT) posted higher-than-average growth in DPU for the quarter, boosted by contributions from newly acquired Mapletree Anson and Plaza Arcade respectively. On the whole, the subsector turned in a 14.6% YoY growth in aggregate NPI and 9.6% YoY growth in DPU. The results were mostly in line with our expectations, except for CapitaMall Trust (CMT) which exceeded our forecasts on stronger-than-expected rental reversions.

Industrial REITs – Possible downside risks ahead (OCBC)

Industrial REITs – Possible downside risks ahead
(Downgrade to NEUTRAL)
Further improvement in performance
Industrial REITs continued to reap the fruits from their past acquisitions and positive reversion in rental rates. In 2Q13, the subsector delivered a 7.9% YoY rise in aggregate NPI to S$302.1m and a 4.2% rise in DPU to 16.07 S cents, relatively consistent with the growth rates achieved in 1Q. We note that AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT (AAREIT) and Ascendas REIT (A-REIT) have raised equity via private placement over the Mar-Apr period. This has resulted in the DPU growth at the respective REITs to be relatively mute over the quarter.

Singapore REITS: Downgrading to neutral (OCBC)

Singapore REITS: Downgrading to neutral
• Fed likely to taper bond purchases in Sep
• Limited growth won’t trump rising rates
• Sector looks fairly priced now

We now see fairly solid grounds for a base case that the Fed would taper QE3 in Sep 2013 or soon after, and we downgrade the S-REIT sector to NEUTRAL on three key reasons. First, we believe this is the beginning of a long term secular, not cyclical, trend of rising interest rates. Higher discount rates and liquidity factors, due to capital re-allocation across asset classes, would likely negatively impact REIT prices over the mid to long term.

Wilmar: Upgrade to BUY – decent entry level (OCBC)

Wilmar:
Fair value S$3.33
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.06
versus: Current price S$3.08

Upgrade to BUY – decent entry level
• Enter at S$3.10 or better
• Upgrade to BUY
• Expect better 2H showing

Wilmar International Limited’s (WIL) share price has taken a bit of a hit after it reported slightly below par 1H13 results on 7 Aug (core earnings met about 40% of our previous full-year forecast), falling 4.5% to a recent low of S$3.0x. But as mentioned in our 12 Aug report, we would be buyers at S$3.10 or better, as we believe that most of the risks would have been captured in the price. Keeping our fair value at S$3.33 (still based on 12.5x blended FY13/FY14F EPS), we note that there is now a decent 10% upside from here. Hence we are upgrading our call from Hold to BUY. Note that an appreciating USD against SGD would also have a modest boost to our fair value.

曾淵滄專欄 10.09.13: 耐心持有手上股票

去年11月,內地股市出現第一個低潮,滬綜指跌破2000點,當時我曾經撰文認為,跌破2000點的A股是非常的便宜,值得買,可惜,香港人不能直接買A股,只能買A股ETF。後來滬綜指短暫跌破2000點後回升,升勢頗快,於是許多人爭買A股ETF,導致A股ETF與其手持的A股真正價值出現巨大的溢價,當時我也曾撰文指出,以107元去買只值100元的股票不值得。

今年初,滬綜指在反彈上2400點之後又再下跌,再一次跌破2000點,同樣的,2000點成了神奇數字,A股又很快反彈了,現在,滬綜指回到2200點之上,但是,那些去年在滬綜指處於2200點時候買A股ETF的人會發現,他們手上的A股ETF的股價仍未回到去年滬綜指2200點時的水平。

负面因素笼罩 產业股涨势受阻

(吉隆坡9日讯)在政策不明朗与多个负面因素笼罩下,分析员看淡產业领域的短期前景,同时將该领域的投资评级,从「跑贏大市」,调降至「中和」。

丰隆投行分析员指出,马股的產业指数自今年5月杪以来,已经从高峰重挫17%,这主要是因为面临宏观挑战以及一些潜在的负面因素,所以预期產业股短期的上涨动力將会受阻。

马银行金英投行分析员也赞同地说,由於產业领域缺乏催化因素,加上政策隱忧悬而未决,所以预料產业股在短期內难以吸引投资者的购兴。

百盛业绩持续下滑 在华关闭四家门店

新金融观察
张沙莎2013-09-01

8月31日,石家庄百盛正式停止营业,这已经是这家业绩持续下滑的零售巨头一年内在华关闭的第四家门店。显然,即便年至耄耋的创始人再度出山,百盛中国之今生无法找回昔日的光环。

门店关闭

超市空空如也的货架、商场随处可见的“SALE”、屈指可数的顾客……闭店前的石家庄百盛,似乎处处透露着凄凉。

“今天这场面已经算是‘火热’的了。”一位消费者向新金融记者表示,自从接到了百盛发给会员的短信,不少消费者特意赶来“扫货”及兑换积分。

国浩资本:太平洋航运买入评级 目标价6.23元

国浩资本:太平洋航运买入评级 目标价6.23元

股价催化剂出现,买入太平洋航运(2343)

太平洋航运(2343,$5.17)以小灵便型及大灵便型干散货船提供海洋运输服务,股价自年初至今跑赢恒生指数18.6%。评论: 虽然公司的中期业绩较市场预期差,然而公司年初至今的股价表现提醒我们投资者正憧憬干散货船业务将于2013年后复甦。太平洋航运于8月19日公布中期业绩,纯利为30万美元,低于市场预期。业绩令人失望主要由于租金较预期低以及公司录得2,500万美元的一次性费用及亏损。展望未来,公司以9,350美元锁定64%小灵便型货船营运天数,并以10,060美元锁定66%大灵便型货船营运天数。2013年余下时间,货运租金将有很大可能出现上涨,本行相信公司的盈利能力按半年计将录得盈利增长。管理层的预期则较保守,表示货运租金下半年的上涨幅度有限。这与市场对2013年的预测相吻合,另一方面,两者对2014年的前景则乐观得多。

Monday, September 9, 2013

預算案或祭3招打房

預算案或祭3招打房
Created 09/09/2013 - 17:28
(吉隆坡9日訊)大馬產業新建量顯著超越實質交易量,令雪州和柔佛浮現產業供應過剩隱憂,政府“軟著陸”的打房措施料在下個月的預算案中接踵而來也進一步對產業雪上加霜,促使產業價短中期難抬頭。

雪柔供應過剩

儘管產業交易量疲軟,卻無阻大馬產業價的勢頭,主要產業市場如大吉隆坡、柔佛和檳城過去5年的產業價漲勢凌厲,或成了政府在此波預算案中再度向產業盈利稅(RPGT)開刀、提高印花稅和外國買家購房門檻的動力。

老牌百货的沉沦与脱胎

老牌百货的沉沦与脱胎
证券新闻北京商报

它们曾是北京甚至全国领先的百货店,如今却随着时间的洪流与主流行列渐行渐远。继贵友大厦方庄店、地安门商场之后,三利百货也在日前正式闭店,这也是北京年内关闭的第三家老牌百货店。尽管这些老牌百货记录了北京商业的成长轨迹,但在电商和购物中心的冲击下,不合理的建筑布局、老化的硬件、缺乏创新的经营模式,让老百货没有了生存空间。即便是百盛、太平洋百货等外资巨头,没有了与时俱进都难以跟上北京商业的发展步伐。反观王府井百货、“燕莎系”商业,通过自身转型调整与市场接轨,仍不断以“新颜”活跃在北京乃至全国商业中。

特亿国际浴火重生

特亿国际浴火重生
Created 09/09/2013 - 13:25
特亿国际(EIG,5081,主板贸服股)业绩从2009年开始走下坡,无论是营业额、净利和股息的表现都一季不如一季。

特亿国际执行主席詹仁芳,为了挽救公司的未来,决定进行大规模的重组计划,设法让公司转亏为盈。

于是,詹家3父子在过去数年内励精图治,专注于公司内部和业务的未来发展规划,并谢绝高调出现于媒体上,决心在下一次面对媒体之际,就是特亿国际重生之时。

穗商場旺租 超人也照賣 分析員:收手罕見 凸顯從中港撤資

穗商場旺租 超人也照賣
分析員:收手罕見 凸顯從中港撤資

【廣州直擊】
香港首富李嘉誠(超人)繼拋售「超市王國」百佳後,早前突然宣佈賣甩開業不足一年的廣州西城都薈。本報記者上周踩上西城都薈,發現商場絕非冇得做的「死場」,商場租戶及房地產業人士更一致睇好。有內房分析員認為,超人收手唔玩實屬罕見,撤資中港的舉動越見明顯。
記者:吳永強 馮健鏗 攝影:黃偉傑

旗下的長和系上月29日宣佈,以近33億元出售廣州西城都薈及停車場,為繼放售百佳及市傳以60億元人民幣出售上海陸家嘴商廈後,另一個拋售的中港資產業務。記者曾電郵及電話留言予長和系發言人,查詢近期舉動是否打算撤出中國,惟截稿前未獲回覆。

Developer outlook positive, landed property dwindling

Developer outlook positive, landed property dwindling

BY SB TOH

KUALA LUMPUR: Property prices are not getting cheaper, sales remain robust, locals far outstrip foreigners in purchases, and the number of landed property coming on the market is declining as strata properties trend upwards – these are some of the patterns revealed by a survey of the first six months of 2013 by the Real Estate and Housing Developers’ Association (Rehda) indicated.

According to the survey, which saw the participation of 150 out of the 1,030 Rehda members, 59% of respondents reported similar or improved sales in the first of 2013 compared to the second half of 2012.

YTL Communications creating a unique niche for customers and students alike

YTL Communications creating a unique niche for customers and students alike

BY KARINA FOO
KARINA@THESTAR.COM.MY
PHOTOS BY CHAN TAK KONG

BUYING mobile phones or any Internet provision service was once like getting your groceries from the supermarket.

The scenario would be something like this: a customer scans the range of products and is merely assisted by a nonchalant so-called customer service staff. Eventually, something might be bought in a straightforward transaction over the cash register.

Shipbuilder Shin Yang sees brighter prospects

Shipbuilder Shin Yang sees brighter prospects

BY JACK WONG
STARBIZ@THESTAR.COM.MY

KUCHING: Shin Yang Shipping Corp Bhd (Syscorp) sees brighter prospects ahead for its shipbuilding and ship-repair operations.

Group financial controller Richard Ling said that the group’s ongoing shipbuilding contracts were worth RM762mil, with most of them secured this year.

On Thursday, Dayang Enterprise Holdings Bhd said its wholly-owned unit, DESB Marine Services Sdn Bhd, had entered into a shipbuilding contract with Shin Yang Shipyard Sdn Bhd (100% owned by Syscorp) for the construction of an offshore accommodation workboat for RM70mil.

OUE Hospitality Trust: Maiden of Orchard (DBSV)

OUE Hospitality Trust:
Maiden of Orchard
NOT RATED; S$0.88;
Potential Target * : 12-Month S$ 0.93  (8% upside)

• Premier address along Orchard Road
•Resilient earnings with multiple growth drivers
•Fair value of S$0.93 offers 8% upside

The Business
Premier address along Orchard Road.  OUE HT is a Singapore-based REIT with an initial portfolio of two properties in prime locations - the 1051-room Mandarin Orchard Hotel, and the accompanying Mandarin Gallery retail mall. The properties are collectively worth S$1.7bn as of 31 Mar13.

KLCC Stapled Group : Lacking Near-Term Catalysts (Kenanga)

KLCC Stapled Group
Price: RM6.50
Target Price: RM6.12
Lacking Near-Term Catalysts

We attended KLCC’s briefing and came away feeling neutral. There was no new development on either “REIT-ing” Suria KLCC or potential asset acquisitions. In terms of Lot D1 and the additional building space in Citypoint@Dayabumi, new anchor tenants are yet to be secured, and thus, they are reluctant to start works until then. Menara Maxis’ long-term lease renewals are also delayed until year-end. No changes to estimates. Foreign shareholding is slightly above 9% or near its low. The share price has shot up by 6.2% since our Result Note (22-Aug). The 10-year MGS yields had sharply compressed to 3.6% from yesterday’s 4.0% on the back of a stronger Ringgit. Nonetheless, we believe yield appetites are much higher than pre-GE levels given higher levels of uncertainties. Maintain TP of RM6.12 based on FY14E target dividend yield of 5.1%. With a total return of -1%, and limited upsides to FY14E earnings, we downgrade the stock to UNDERPERFORM from MARKET PERFORM.

曾淵滄專欄09.09.13:競爭力排名 錯得很

今年5月,瑞士洛桑學院發表世界競爭力報告,香港排名由世界第一跌至第三;到了9月,世界經濟論壇也發表一個同類報告,香港則由世界第九升至第七,到底香港競爭力是提升還是下跌?

不論誰做排名比賽,所有的排名比賽最大的問題是把所有的國家、地區放在同一個標準中衡量,這是大錯特錯,不同國情、不同地區、不同氣候、不同地域、不同歷史、不同宗教……每一個國家、地區都應該有一套適合自己的競爭法,怎麼可以用同一組因素來衡量不同背景的國家與地區?

First Resources : Musing on output and rupiah (CIMB)

First Resources
Current S$1.91
Target S$2.22
Musing on output and rupiah

 First Resources posted a FFB yield of 1.8 tonnes/ha in July, which is the best monthly yield achievement for 2013. We are positive on the pick-up in yield, which is in within expectations. The group will also benefit from the weaker rupiah through lower labour costs.

Yongnam : Healthy 17-year Work Pipeline (MKE)

Yongnam Holdings
Buy(unchanged)
Share price: SGD0.295
Target price: SGD0.40 (unchanged)
Healthy 17-year Work Pipeline

Eyes SGD670m worth of contracts in 2H13. We continue to like Yongnam as it is a prime beneficiary of Singapore’s infrastructure growth story, given its position as the strongest structural steel player locally with the largest strutting asset inventory. We believe it has hit the bottom of the cycle and is geared up and ready to replenish its orderbook. Yongnam is tendering for SGD670m of potential projects which would commence in 2H13. Reiterate BUY with a TP of SGD0.40. Transferring coverage of Yongnam Holdings to Alison Fok.

Cordlife : Can’t miss expansion into neighboring country (AM)

Cordlife Group Ltd:
Can’t miss expansion into neighboring country
(Downgrade to HOLD, FV: S$1.42)

Acquisition of 19.92% stake in StemLife. Cordlife Group Limited (CLGL) has announced a S$11.5m (RM29.58m) conditional acquisition of 19.92% stake in ACE Market-listed StemLife Berhad, a leading provider of cord blood banking services in Malaysia. The consideration will be satisfied with the issuance of 8m new ordinary shares in CLGL to StemLife’s Managing Director Dato’ Low Su-Shing and Deputy MD Dato’ Lim Oi Wah at an issue price of $1.30 and cash payment of RM2.85m. The acquisition is for 49.3m shares in StemLife at the agreed price of RM0.60 per share, a 62% premium above the company’s last close of RM0.37 per share as at 4 September 2013, which implies 18x PE multiple based on FY12 earnings and 4.4x PB multiple. (Refer to table) Supplement to the Sale and Purchase agreement (SPA). Following the SPA, the founder and co-founder of the company would jointly hold a 2.5% stake in StemLife (decreased from 22.4%) and their holdings in CLGL would amount to 0.03% in total.

Goodpack : Resilient in downturns, leverage in up cycles (DBSV)

Goodpack
BUY S$1.64
STI : 3,015.42
Price Target: 12-Month S$2.00

Resilient in downturns, leverage in up cycles
• Prudent business model and market share gain bolster Goodpack’s earnings during downturn.
• Benefits from recovery in US/Europe
• Growth from Synthetic Rubber; new autoparts contracts from OEM a strong re-rating catalyst
• Undervalued, trading at replacement cost. BUY, TP of S$2.00 offers total return of 24%.

Food Empire : кофе Anyone? (UOBKH)

Food Empire
Share Price S$0.66
кофе Anyone?

Valuation
• Food Empire Holdings (FEH) is trading at a trailing PE of 13.7x, a 40% discount off its peers’ average. Based on Bloomberg’s estimate (one broker), FEH has a 12-month target price of S$0.84 with a 2013F dividend yield of 1.9%. Although the company does not have a formal dividend policy, management remains committed to distribute 20-25% of their 2013 net profit as dividends.

Overseas Education : Cashing in on education (DBSV)

Overseas Education Limited:
BUY S$0.795
Cashing in on education
Price Target : 12-Month S$1.03  

•Initiate coverage with Buy, DCF target price of S$1.03 implies 30% upside  
•Stock pays 3.4% dividend yield, backed by strong cashflow generation
•Fee hikes to support near term earnings, new campus to accelerate growth in 2016

Recommend Buy for 34% total return. Overseas Education Limited (OEL) presents a highly cash generative business with operating cashflow growing at 48% CAGR over 2010-2013. Regional education service providers trade at an average of 21x current PE and 6% FCF yield. In comparison, OEL looks compelling at only 15x PE and a substantially higher FCF yield of 13%.  The company has a dividend payout policy of at least 50% of earnings. This translates to a decent yield of about 4%.    

CapitaMalls Asia :Staying the Course (MKE)

CapitaMalls Asia
Buy (unchanged)
Share price:SGD1.815
Target price:SGD2.51(unchanged)
Staying the Course

 New malls will underpin earnings growth. CMA’s share price may have corrected by 11% since Bernanke’s Congressional Testimony on 22 May, but we see this as an excellent buying opportunity for the stock. In the near-term, the opening of new malls will continue to be a key earnings driver, supported by positive rental reversions. Reiterate BUY, with a TP of SGD2.51, suggesting an attractive upside of ~40%.

Singapore Press Holdings: Continued headwinds for print (OCBC)

Singapore Press Holdings:
Fair value S$4.14
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.24
versus: Current price S$3.99

Continued headwinds for print
• REIT spin-off success
• Continued headwinds for print
• Downgrade to HOLD with S$4.14 FV

We see SPH’s REIT spin-off as a positive move and believe management’s decision to hold a 70% majority stake makes significant sense. However, the latest 3QFY13 figures presented a picture of continued headwinds for the group’s core print business given the cumulative impact from cooling measures on property and automobile ads.

Sunday, September 8, 2013

复杂工程盈利下半年到位 依华建台明年业绩更佳

复杂工程盈利下半年到位 依华建台明年业绩更佳
Created 09/08/2013 - 09:11
(吉隆坡7日讯)依华建台(SENDAI,5205,主板建筑股)相信,今年将交出稍微逊色的净利表现;不过,在部分复杂工程的盈利于明年下半年开始实现后,明年盈利表现将比去年出色。

依华建台董事经理丹斯里AK纳登日前出席大马外贸发展局(MATRADE)与大马品牌协会联办“2013年品牌企业家大会”后,向《南洋商报》发表谈话。

对于依华建台2013财年次季净利,按年下跌45.97%至1647万3000令吉,AK纳登表示,这是因为部分工程具一定复杂性以及为了符合客户的提出的额外要求,才导致盈利流入缓慢,导致次季盈利下跌;另外,公司次季营业额则微跌3.95%至2亿4750万6000令吉。

等待时机进军海外市场 顺利实业不容小觑

等待时机进军海外市场 顺利实业不容小觑

 二零一三年九月七日 晚上七时十七分

(吉隆坡7日讯)近年来,由于大多数房地产发展商积极进军依斯干达特区推行产业项目,不过顺利实业有限公司(KSL,5038,产业组)大唱反调,通过它在巴生谷的首个产业项目加纳利花园来渗透当地的市场。

它在该领域的各个部分不断壮大成长,从新山市中心至小城镇,如拉美士和居銮,而且还有些项目正在进行中。

该集团执行主席邱华成在媒体发布会上说:“加纳利花园是首个在柔佛州以外的项目,而我们将会继续探索进军其他市场的各种可能性。”

下個減津目標?‧電氣最遲明年中調漲

下個減津目標?‧電氣最遲明年中調漲
Created 09/07/2013 - 09:31
(吉隆坡6日訊)由於能源相關產品津貼佔政府總津貼數額70至80%,在合理化津貼大前提下,豐隆研究相信繼汽油漲價後,電費和天然氣價格勢必成為下個遭“減津”大刀削砍的對象。

豐隆指出,國內每公升零售汽油近期被調漲15仙至20仙,顯示政府堅持減津立場不變,在人口成長及全球能源價格持續上漲情況下,政府須透過減津來減輕財務壓力。

“政府去年共撥出424億令吉,佔政府總營運開銷約20.9%,國家石油(Petronas)則因供應給本地領域使用的天然氣價格遭鎖定而流失280億令吉收入。”

曾渊沧:谨防大户震仓 宜长线投资优质股

曾渊沧:谨防大户震仓 宜长线投资优质股

上星期,港股突然急跌,本星期又突然急升,归根就底,只是市场淡静,大户在期指上火拼的结果,多数散户依然在观望。

上星期,港股急跌时,我马上撰文劝大家不必太恐慌,当时我估计奥巴马没有多大的诱因在叙利亚打一场大仗,充其量最多是射几枚导弹,算是完成空战“教训”,“惩罚”叙利亚政府的任务。现在,叙利亚战云依然存在,但投资者已不再谨慎。

罗杰斯:最近几年一直在买黄金 中国股票留给孩子

罗杰斯:最近几年一直在买黄金 中国股票留给孩子
2013年06月04日 10:17  新浪财经

.新浪财经讯 6月4日上午消息,著名投资大师吉姆·罗杰斯在参加“专访罗杰斯,分享人生智慧”节目中表示,他从来没有卖过中国的股票,在过去几年当中一直在买黄金。

  以下是访谈文字实录。

  【主持人】:朋友好,欢迎收看正在为你直播的开市首班车。今天我们邀请到了独立投资人吉姆·罗杰斯先生来到我们演播室的现场,和中国的投资者一起讨论市场问题。我们欢迎他的到来。

Can Indonesia strike gold... with coal?



Marc Faber tells all



Salcon : 2QFY13 Results (NRA)

Salcon Berhad
Current Price : RM 0.64
Target Price: RM 0.78

•In 2QFY13, Salcon’s turnover declined by 3.1% to RM67.58m due to lower contribution from construction division.

• PBT increased by 69.1% to RM10.81m due to higher gross margin enjoyed by its concession division and reduced losses from its construction division.

Sunway : Construction segment affected by temporary stop work order (MIDF)

Sunway Berhad
Price (30 May 13) RM2.75
Target Price RM3.57
Construction segment affected by temporary stop work order

Property segment key driver of earnings growth
RM366m property sales in 2QFY13 and RM2.3b unbilled sales as at end 2QFY13
Strong orderbook of RM4.2b for construction segment
Maintain BUY with slightly higher TP of RM3.57

Earnings slightly above expectation: Sunway Berhad (Sunway) registered core profit of RM201.1m in 1HFY13 which accounted for 55.8% of ours and 52% of consensus forecast. Earnings grew 41.7%yoy mainly attributable to strong revenue growth of 18%yoy as well as higher profit margin of 9.4% (7.8% in 1HFY12).

Malaysia Steel Works : 2Q13 results within expectations (Asia)

Malaysia Steel Works
Price RM0.91
52-week price range (RM) 0.77-1.10

§ 2Q13 results within expectations
§ Beneficiary of rising construction activities
§ Steel bar prices supported by domestic demand
§ Future earnings to be driven by volume sales

Malaysia Steel Works’ earnings results for 2Q13 were broadly in line with our expectations.

Turnover was marginally down y-y at RM342.3 million, due to lower average selling prices for steel products but was 3.7% higher from 1Q13, thanks to stronger volume demand. Domestic sales improved q-q, picking up the slack in exports in 2Q13.

Lion Industries : Outlook for steel demand and prices still murky (MIDF)

Lion Industries Bhd
Price (29 Aug 2013) RM0.91
Target Price RM0.83
Outlook for steel demand and prices still murky

_ Weak steel prices and higher cost of raw materials resulted in Steel Division’s operational losses for 12MFY13.
_ 12MFY13 net profit was below ours and consensus expectations. Dividend payment of 1 sen proposed in 4QFY13.
_ Maintain NEUTRAL with revised TP of RM0.83 (previously RM1.00) based on SOP valuation.

Supermax : Raw Material Prices Remain Weak (TA)

Supermax Corporation Berhad
TP: RM2.90
Last traded: RM2.27
Raw Material Prices Remain Weak

Review
_ Supermax reported 1H FY13 net profit of RM67.9mn, representing 52.4% and 49.6% of ours’ and consensus estimates of RM129.5mn and RM136.8mn respectively. EPS improved 16.5% YoY to 9.9 sen from 8.5 sen a year ago.

_ Year to date, net profit increased 17.1% YoY attributing to a 35.4% YoY jump in revenue to RM650.5mn. This was on the back of capacity added from new and refurbished lines. Holding back revenue, average selling prices (ASPs) for latex and nitrile gloves fell in comparison to the previous year.

Muhibbah Engineering : At the start of the s-curve (CIMB)

Muhibbah Engineering
Current RM2.15
Target RM2.97
At the start of the s-curve

 Muhibbah's annualised 1H13 core net profit beat our full-year forecast by 9% but was in line with consensus. The outperformance was due to overestimated tax rates but pretax numbers were in line. The stock now offers attractive upside. The turnaround story remains its appeal.

We raise FY13-15 EPS forecasts on the back of lower tax rates. We cut RNAV/share by 7% as we update for balance sheet items and Favelle Favco's lower market value. Our RNAV target price falls despite an unchanged 30% RNAV discount. Order book recovery is expected across the board. Prospects are also spurred by oil & gas infrastructure. Maintain Outperform. Likely job wins in 2H form re-rating catalysts.

Padini : A Better Year Ahead (RHB)

Padini
Target Price: MYR1.95
Price: MYR1.66
A Better Year Ahead

Padini’s FY13 results were in line with consensus and our estimates. Revenue grew by 8.8% y-o-y but earnings dipped by 10.4% due to: i) lower gross profit margin as consumer preference shifted to products with lower mark-ups, and ii) higher operating expenses from new stores openings. We like the group’s aggressive outlet expansion plans and decent dividends. Upgrade to BUY, with an unchanged FV of MYR1.95.

OldTown : Business As Usual (RHB)

OldTown
Target Price: MYR2.90
Price: MYR2.36
Business As Usual

OldTown (OTB)’s 1QFY14 results were largely in line with consensus and our estimates. We expect a stronger 2HFY14, driven by its FMCG capacity expansion. 1Q14 revenue and core earnings rose 6.9% and 9.9% y-o-y, thanks to the better numbers at the group’s FMCG segment. Upgrade to BUY, with our FV unchanged at RM2.90.

• In line. 1Q revenue grew 6.9% y-o-y, bolstered by healthy revenue growth from both the food and beverage (F&B, +2.6% y-o-y) and fast moving consumer goods (FMCG, +13.6% y-o-y) segments. Core earnings rose 9.9% y-o-y to MYR12.2m, from MYR11.1m, mainly driven by stronger FMCG performance.

Adam Khoo: The 10 Fatal Mistakes of Investing



Warren E. Buffett(沃伦•巴菲特)
Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful
别人贪婪时我恐惧, 别人恐惧时我贪婪
投资只需学好两门课: 一,是如何给企业估值,二,是如何看待股市波动
吉姆·罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)
“错过时机”胜于“搞错对象”:不会全军覆没!”
做自己熟悉的事,等到发现大好机会才投钱下去

乔治·索罗斯(George Soros)

“犯错误并没有什么好羞耻的,只有知错不改才是耻辱。”

如果操作过量,即使对市场判断正确,仍会一败涂地。

李驰(中国巴菲特)
高估期间, 卖对, 不卖也对, 买是错的。
低估期间, 买对, 不买也是对, 卖是错的。

Tan Teng Boo


There’s no such thing as defensive stocks.Every stock can be defensive depending on what price you pay for it and what value you get,
冷眼(冯时能)投资概念
“买股票就是买公司的股份,买股份就是与陌生人合股做生意”。
合股做生意,则公司股份的业绩高于一切,而股票的价值决定于盈利。
价值是本,价格是末,故公司比股市重要百倍。
曹仁超-香港股神/港股明灯
1.有智慧,不如趁势
2.止损不止盈
成功者所以成功,是因为不怕失败!失败者所以失败,是失败后不再尝试!
曾淵滄-散户明灯
每逢灾难就是机会,而是在灾难发生时贱价买股票,然后放在一边,耐性地等灾难结束
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