Saturday, September 7, 2013

曾淵滄教路 04.09.13 : 價值被嚴重低估 地產股可長線買入

現在距離美國聯邦儲備局九月份的會議日期已經很靠近,這次會議肯定會談及退市的問題,就算九月份不退市,十月份退市的機會就會更濃厚,市場就有更多的造淡機會。

出現雙重折讓

許多人都認為,受退市影響最大的是樓市,如果樓市下跌,地產股應該會隨之下跌,最近,一些地產發展商推出新樓盤,被部分傳媒形容為大劈價,但是,地產股的股價並沒有出現大幅下跌,走勢基本上是與大市同步,個別地產股如嘉華國際(0173),雖然今年上半年純利倒退,但是股價的表現都不錯,

Re-rating in store for Zhulian?

Re-rating in store for Zhulian?

BY YVONNE TAN
YVONNE@THESTAR.COM

MULTI-level marketing (MLM) company Zhulian Corp Bhd, once labelled an undiscovered gem, has performed quite well since the beginning of the year.

Its stock price has risen some 9% year-to-date, outperfoming the benchmark index which is up by about 3%.

Its operations which are located in South-East Asia have been steadily building market share and this has translated into earnings growth over the years.

Ivory Prop takes over Plaza Rakyat project

Ivory Prop takes over Plaza Rakyat project
By Marina Emmanuel
marinae@nst.com.my
2013/09/07

MIXED DEVELOPMENT: Group to redevelop Pudu site with properties worth about RM8b in GDV
The Plaza Rakyat mixed development in Pudu, Kuala Lumpur, is taking off again, 15 years after it was abandoned due to the Asian financial crisis.

Penang-based Ivory Properties Group Bhd yesterday said subsidiary Ivory Place Sdn Bhd had won an open tender by Plaza Rakyat Sdn Bhd to revive the project located on 6.163ha of prime land.

Small caps: OSIM, Midas, Eu Yan Sang among OSK-DMG’s top 30 picks for 2013

Small caps: OSIM, Midas, Eu Yan Sang among OSK-DMG’s top 30 picks for 2013

Written by Frankie Ho  
Monday, 19 August 2013 20:36
One thing that Terence Wong claims he developed over the years as an equity analyst is an ability to detect — or “smell”, as he puts it — if a company is good or bad the moment he comes into contact with it. For that, the head of research at OSK-DMG has Singapore’s former “IPO King” to thank.

“In the year 2000, Choo Chee Kong said something to me that left an indelible mark in my memory. He told me ‘Terence, I walk into a room, I smell and I’d know whether it’s a good company or not.’ I was thinking ‘This guy is a bit hao lian [proud in Hokkien]. I was wondering how can this be possible?’ But having been in the industry for 14 years, seeing some 400 listed companies, having had a lot of hard knocks and painful lessons, I now think it is possible. In fact, I think I have inherited the sense of smell from him.”

Lion Industries : Recovery Expected Only After Small Bump (RHB)

Lion Industries
Target Price: MYR1.21
Price: MYR0.91
Recovery Expected Only After Small Bump

We turn cautious on Lion Industries (LLB) after a poor 4Q13 core profit of just MYR7.4m and surprise impairment on receivables at a related company. The impact of the festivities on steel demand and the MYR’s weakness suggest a slow start to FY14, with a pickup only in 2H. As we cut our estimates for FY14-15 and revise our valuation to 0.27x FY14F P/BV, or -0.5SD, our FV falls to MYR1.21. Downgrade to TRADING BUY.

Malaysia Steel Works : Signs Of Improvement (RHB)

Malaysia Steel Works
Target Price: MYR1.08
Price: MYR0.93
Signs Of Improvement

MSW’s 2Q13 earnings surged to MYR10.1m but annualized 1H earnings fell short of our and street estimates. We see the implementation of mega-projects gathering steam, lifting local steel demand, while a weak MYR presents export opportunities. There is speculation that MSW’s proposed rail project may be shelved, which would relief concerns of potential hikes to its gearing. Upgrade to Trading BUY with MYR1.08 FV.

Supermax : Healthy 1HFY13 Numbers (RHB)

Supermax
Target Price: MYR2.84
Price: MYR2.27
Healthy 1HFY13 Numbers

Supermax (SUCB)’s 1HFY13 core earnings of MYR67.8m were within expectations, at 49.0% and 49.6% of our and consensus full-year estimates respectively. We attribute the decent numbers to the easing of raw material prices as well as the increased automation in its plants that helped boost its bottomline. Maintain BUY, with our FV of MYR2.84 based on an unchanged 12x FY14 P/E.

Amway : Bitten By Higher Operating Costs (RHB)

Amway
Target Price: MYR11.75
Price: MYR12.00
Bitten By Higher Operating Costs

Amway’s 1HFY13 results were below expectations, representing only 44% of consensus and our full year forecasts. Revenue improved by 8.5% y-o-y but earnings dipped 0.2% y-o-y, dragged down by higher operating costs. We trim our FY13 and FY14 earnings by 5.7% and 5.1% respectively, resulting in a lower FV of MYR11.75. Maintain NEUTRAL.

KNM Group : Disappointment Continues (RHB)

KNM Group
Target Price: MYR0.40
Price: MYR0.40
Disappointment Continues

KNMG’s 1H13 net profit of MYR13.6m was below our but in line with consensus forecasts, at merely 25.7% of our and 48.1% of consensus full-year estimates. Correspondingly, we lower our earnings forecasts by 22.6% for FY13 and 20.7% for FY14. Given that the stock has dipped by some 24.5% since our downgrade to Sell in June, we upgrade the stock to NEUTRAL, with a revised FV of MYR0.40 (from MYR0.42).

Padini : Dragged by higher expenses (DBSV)

Padini
HOLD RM1.66
KLCI : 1,686.17
Price Target : 12-Month RM 1.75 (Prev RM 1.80)
Dragged by higher expenses

4Q13 net profit of RM16m was below expectation as higher operating expenses - namely selling and distribution costs – ate into margins
Cut FY14-15F EPS by 9-10% after adjusting for weaker margins
Maintain HOLD with RM1.75 TP; declared 1st interim net DPS of 2.5 sen

Highlights
Below expectation. Padini’s 4QFY13 net profit inched up 1.1% y-o-y to RM15.7m, buoyed by revenue which grew 4.4% to RM177m. However, full year profit missed expectation at only 91% of our forecast.

Press Metal : Stable Despite Temporary Issues (RHB)

Press Metal
Target Price: MYR2.77
Price: MYR2.02
Stable Despite Temporary Issues

Press Metal posted weaker 2QFY13 earnings of MYR20m, no thanks to the further weakening of aluminium prices while the June power outage dealt a second blow to its short-term earnings. However, we expect repairs at its smelters to be expedited even as the aluminium price shows signs of bottoming out. It is still a BUY, with FV of MYR2.77, implying a 30% discount to our fully-diluted conservative DCF.

Hunza Properties 4QFY13: A strong end to the year (Alliance)

Hunza Properties
Revised target price 2.52
Current price (as at 28 Aug) 2.01
4QFY13: A strong end to the year

Hunza ends FY13 on a brighter note as its 4QFY13 results exceeded both ours and consensus estimates. Going into FY14, we expect earnings to rebound following the soft opening of Gurney Paragon Mall on 23 July. We also expect property launches to gain traction but delay in procuring approvals remains the key risk. Hunza continues to trade at steep 60% discount to RNAV which we believe will narrow as its earnings visibility improves. Reiterate BUY with lower target price of RM2.52, which is based on 50% discount to RNAV of RM5.04.

Sunway : Unexpected 5 Sen Interim Dividend (RHB)

Sunway
Target Price: MYR3.52
Price: MYR2.75
Unexpected 5 Sen Interim Dividend

Sunway’s 2Q13 results came in above expectations. A 5 sen interim dividend was declared. The q-o-q earnings growth was mainly driven by higher progress billings from the property projects, partly offset by weaker revenue from the construction division. Its 1H13 new sales of MYR606m are on track to meet our target. In view of rising economic and regulatory risks, we lower our FV to MYR3.52. Maintain BUY.

中國農業銀行(1288.HK) - 盈利增長穩定 不良貸款餘額小幅反彈

推介日期   30-08-2013 
投資建議增持
建議時股價$ 3.360
買入價N/A
目標價$ 3.890

招商銀行 (3968.HK) - 盈利增長超預期 資產品質顯風險

推介日期   20-08-2013 
投資建議買入
建議時股價$ 14.420
買入價N/A
目標價$ 17.790

招商銀行 (3968.HK) - 盈利增長超預期 資產品質顯風險

公司概要

招商銀行(以下簡稱“招行”或“集團”)成立於1987年,是中國第一家完全由企業法人持股的股份制商業銀行,分別於2002年和2006年在上海、香港上市。在2012年 美國《財富》雜誌發佈的全球500大公司中,招行首度入選,排名第498位。在英國《銀行家》(The Banker)雜誌發佈的2012年“全球1000家大銀行”排名中,位居第56位。

Friday, September 6, 2013

马熔锡印尼锡约未延长

马熔锡印尼锡约未延长
Created 09/06/2013 - 12:02
(吉隆坡5日讯)马熔锡机构(MSC,5916,主板工业产品股)宣布,迄今未接获印尼政府针对公司印尼锡矿业务延长合约的相关通知。

马熔锡机构今天向马交所报备,持有75%股权的印尼子公司———PT Koba Tin,目前未收到印尼能源与矿物资源部的任何通知。

公司8月初接获印尼能源与矿物资源部通知,延长评估期两个月,即从今年7月1日至8月杪。

PT Koba Tin与印尼政府依据合约营运的锡矿业务,坐落在Bangka岛,于今年3月31日届满。

違約風險大過菲‧大馬或面對信貸危機

違約風險大過菲‧大馬或面對信貸危機
Created 09/06/2013 - 17:20
(吉隆坡6日訊)在大馬致力避免信貸主權評級遭下調的同時,大馬違約風險首度跨越菲律賓,再度拉起大馬信貸危機警鐘。

違約掉期率
提高66基點至144基點

根據數據供應商CMA,今年大馬債券的信貸違約掉期率提高66基點至144基點,超越信貸主權評級較低的菲律賓。菲律賓的信貸違約掉期率走高36基點到142基點。

《彭博社》的資料也顯示,大馬10年馬幣回酬上升40基點至3.88%,較菲律賓同期債券高12基點。

缺惊喜催化剂 城中城产业短期派息具挑战

缺惊喜催化剂 城中城产业短期派息具挑战
Created 09/06/2013 - 12:23
(吉隆坡5日讯)分析员指出,城中城产业(KLCCP,5089,主板产业股)长期展望固然唱好,但短期却欠缺令人惊喜的催化剂,甚至面临短期派息挑战。

三家券商同时点出城中城产业,近期缺乏股价激励因素。

这包括全购阳光广场(Suria KLCC)进度缓慢、Dayabumi大楼和D1区(Lot D1)发展计划仍在寻觅主要租户,以及并购活动欠奉的关系。

股場放大鏡: 航運業復蘇 勝獅抵博

反映乾散貨運費之波羅的海指數,日前突破1200點水平,創一年半以來新高,反映乾散貨運費終可擺脫近兩年的橫行區,展開新一輪升浪。

日前瑞信航運業分析團隊發表行業報告,指出乾散貨運船隊供過於求情況,過去七年來首次出現逆轉,變成求過於供,而新的鐵礦場投產,亦增加了船隊的需求。

美國集裝箱需求趨增
該行指,未來數年將有多個鐵礦場投產,在夏季淡季過去之後,中國的鋼鐵生產活動復蘇較該行預期快,而且鐵礦石去庫存已有一段時間,庫存量減少之後將會增加入口,提高了對乾散貨運輸的需求。瑞信認為中海發展(1138)及中外運航運(368)將最受惠,但航運業復蘇最終都會提升航隊價值,整個行業都會受惠。

Coastal Contracts expands its horizon

Coastal Contracts expands its horizon
Posted on 6 September 2013 - 05:40am
Izwan Idris and Liew Jia Teng
sunbiz@thesundaily.com

PETALING JAYA (Sept 6, 2013): Drilling offshore for oil is often an expensive bet, but with crude prices showing surprising strength holding above US$100 (RM330) a barrel, companies including Coastal Contracts Bhd are jumping into the bandwagon for a piece of the action.

Earlier this year, the Sandakan-based shipbuilder ordered its first jack-up drilling rig costing US$200 million (RM660 million) from a shipyard in China for delivery in July next year.

Overweight call on airline sector stays

Overweight call on airline sector stays
AVIATION SECTOR
By RHB Research Institute
Overweight (maintained)

THE airlines we cover generally saw a seasonally weaker second quarter as loads weakened owing to lower-than-expected demand amid aggressive capacity expansion.

Among the carriers that saw improved loads quarter-on-quarter (Malaysia Airlines, Garuda and AirAsia), yields were sacrificed to boost passenger volume.

油价起影响微消费税需时执行 消费业盈利增长仍乐观

油价起影响微消费税需时执行 消费业盈利增长仍乐观
Created 09/06/2013 - 08:12
(吉隆坡5日讯)尽管政府本周内上调燃油价格,以及政府或在10月预算案时宣布落实消费税(GST),但却无损投行对消费领域下半年盈利增长持乐观看法。

达证劵分析员向《南洋商报》表示,这次燃油的涨幅不算高,并不会造成庞大开支促使人们减少消费;他相信,国内消费能力仍然强劲。

此外,大马零售股当中不乏国际公司,他们对于成本控制相当严谨,投资回酬(ROE)目前还处不错的水平。

China Merchants Bank : Rights issue successful, removes two-year overhang (CS)

China Merchants Bank - H
Maintain NEUTRAL
Price (05 Sep 13 , HK$) 14.52
TP (prev. TP HK$) 17.62 (17.62)
Rights issue successful, removes two-year overhang

CMB has announced a 96.4% subscription to its A-share rights offering. Effectively the rights issue is now through since (1) the minimum required is 70%, (2) A-shares account for 82% of total shares, and (3) H-shares are fully underwritten.

● Priced at HK$11.68/share on HKEx and Rmb9.29/share in the A-share market, the rights issue collects Rmb34.85 bn (US$5.5 bn, 13% of market cap), adds 125 bp to core Tier 1 ratio (which was 8.00% as of 1H13), trims EPS by ~15% and ROEs by 1.8%.

Cordlife Group : Gaining Foothold in Malaysia and Thailand (VR)

Cordlife Group
Invest
Gaining Foothold in Malaysia and Thailand
• Intrinsic Value S$1.60
• Prev Closing Price S$1.355

Yesterday, Cordlife Group Limited (Cordlife) announced the proposed acquisition of 19.9% stake in StemLife Berhad (StemLife) at approximately RM29.6m, which will be fulfilled via the issuance of 8m Cordlife shares and RM2.85m cash. The consideration is arrived at after taking into account StemLife’s cash balances of RM76.8m as of end June 2013, freehold lands with an original book value of RM6.9m and its fundamental prospect.

Vard Holdings: Waiting to Re-rate (MKE)

Vard Holdings
Buy (from Hold)
Share price: SGD0.86
Target price: SGD1.12 (from SGD0.95)
Waiting to Re-rate

 Leading customers expressed confidence in long term OSV demand. Despite recent Brazilian yard woes, Vard has maintained an unwavering confidence in order win outlook. In their latest quarterly results updates, leading OSV owners who are key clients of Vard have expressed high levels of optimism in long-term OSV demand. Vard’s 2013 order wins have reached our initial expectations and we believe that further order wins would set the stage for a positive re-rating. In our opinion, current share price has more than priced in the execution issues in its Brazil yards. We upgrade the stock to a Buy with TP of SGD1.12 pegged to 8x PER on average FY13-15F earnings (previously SGD0.95, based on 1.4x P/B).

Fortune REIT : Kingswood Ginza – full potential yet to be exploited (DBSV)

Fortune REIT
BUY HK$6.30
HSI: 22,326
Price Target : 12-Month HK$ 8.02 (Prev HK$ 8.00)

Kingswood Ginza – full potential yet to be exploited
Proposed acquisition of Kingswood Ginza property, funded mostly by debt with the balance from unit placement, is yield accretive
Diversified tenant base with defensive trade mix point to resilient income for Kingswood Ginza property while rental upside should come from lease renewals and tenant repositioning
Maintain BUY with TP raised slightly to HK$8.02

曾淵滄專欄 06.09.13:怎樣做到人棄我取

昨日我說喜歡以樂觀思維從不同角度看問題,常常把壞事當好事看,過去二十多年我都在人人認為是世界末日時買股買樓。

上星期,恒指在敍利亞戰雲密佈的情況下急跌350點,我翌日見報的文章即勸大家不必太擔心。中石油(857)大地震,我也是同樣地樂觀看,昨日國家主席習近平親自出席中石油於土庫曼斯坦的油氣田投產儀式,這是習近平想告訴全球的投資者,中石油高層領導被捕只是這些人的個人問題,不會影響國家對中石油這家大型國企的支持,企業領導被捕企業運作如常。

TOP MALAYSIA SMALL CAP COMPANIES -Alam Maritim

TOP MALAYSIA SMALL CAP COMPANIES
30 JEWELS 2013 Edition

Alam Maritim
Target: MYR1.65
Price: MYR1.35
Board This Boat Now

Investment Merits
•Its offshore support vessel (OSV) business is set to have an 80%- 85% utilization rate over the next two years
•Potential winner for the upcoming transportation & installation (T&I) tenders in the Pan-Malaysia field worth MYR2bn-MYR3bn
•Potential winner for the upcoming inspection, repair and maintenance (IRM) tenders worth MYR1bn-MYR2bn

TOP MALAYSIA SMALL CAP COMPANIES-Malton

TOP MALAYSIA SMALL CAP COMPANIES
30 JEWELS 2013 Edition

Malton
Target: MYR1.80
Price: MYR0.845
A Perfect Mix

Investment Merits
•Management refocusing on property development after sorting out legal tussles over a few big projects
•Stands to play a bigger role in the Pusat Bandar Damansara (PBD) redevelopment project, which is now effectively held by Malton’s 38% major shareholder Datuk Desmond Lim
•We value the Group at MYR1.80, based on a 50% discount to RNAV

TOP MALAYSIA SMALL CAP COMPANIES -NTPM Holdings

TOP MALAYSIA SMALL CAP COMPANIES
30 JEWELS 2013 Edition

NTPM Holdings
Target: MYR0.69
Price: MYR0.55
Getting Exciting

Investment Merits
•Malaysia’s largest tissue paper manufacturer
•A defensive business as its products are basic necessities
•Decent ROE and dividend yield

TOP MALAYSIA SMALL CAP COMPANIES-Freight Management

TOP MALAYSIA SMALL CAP COMPANIES
30 JEWELS 2013 Edition

Freight Management
Target: MYR1.71
Price: MYR1.45
An Undervalued Gem

Investment Merits
•Focusing on its most profitable business segment
•Making further inroads into the O&G sector
•Solid foundation with a proven business model
•BUY, with MYR1.71 FV, based on a 11x FY14 P/E

TOP MALAYSIA SMALL CAP COMPANIES-Hai-O

TOP MALAYSIA SMALL CAP COMPANIES
30 JEWELS 2013 Edition

Hai-O
Target: MYR3.28
Price: MYR2.71
Ready For Takeoff Again

Investment Merits
•Riding on the recovery of its multi-level marketing (MLM) division
•Healthy balance sheet with a net cash position
•Offers a decent dividend yield of > 5%

TOP MALAYSIA SMALL CAP COMPANIES-Hua Yang

TOP MALAYSIA SMALL CAP COMPANIES
30 JEWELS 2013 Edition

Hua Yang
Target: MYR3.68
Price: MYR3.07
Affordability Still The Way To Go

Investment Merits
•Mid-cap property developer concentrating on the affordable housing segment (≤ MYR500k)
•Strong growth potential ahead given its total outstanding GDV of MYR3.77bn, including MYR1bn planned for FY14 launches
•Major launches lined up include high-rise projects in Desa Pandan (total GDV: MYR213m) and Shah Alam (GDV: MYR156m)
•Value Hua Yang at MYR3.68, based on a 20% discount to RNAV; TP post 1-for-3 bonus issue is adjusted to MYR2.76

SPH REIT : Prime commercial paragon (Nomura)

SPH REIT
Target price Starts at SGD 0.94
Closing price August 30, 2013 SGD 0.96
Prime commercial paragon

Action: Neutral; highest exposure to prime Orchard retail
SPH REIT offers the highest exposure to the prime Orchard retail market amongst S-REITs, as the Paragon asset accounts for over 80% of initial portfolio value and is the primary driver of valuation.

The Paragon Mall has a solid operating track record, consistently achieving committed occupancy of 100% and a compounded annual growth of 7% in rents over the past 10 years. It appears average rent at Paragon is still competitive vs. ION Orchard and Wisma Atria. Coupled with limited new supply of prime retail space projected in FY13-14F, we believe there is potential reversion upside for leases expiring in FY14F. Medical suites/offices account for 32% of Paragon’s total NLA currently and its proximity to the Mt. Elizabeth Hospital has contributed to its popularity amongst healthcare providers.

航運股受捧 太平洋航運飆9%

近日航運業好消息不斷,繼上海自貿區效應後,波羅的海乾散貨指數亦急升,帶動航運股受捧跑贏,當中獲大行唱好的太平洋航運(02343)升幅尤其顯著,昨日收市報5.17元,大升9.53%。
波羅的海指數急升4%

反映運費的波羅的海乾散貨指數急升4%重越1,200關,為一年多以來最高,加上行業轉型升級意見日前出台,令航運股昨日全線炒上,除太平洋航運升逾9%,中國遠洋(01919)及中海發展(01138)分別升6.92%及6.65%,餘下航運股之升幅介乎3至6%。

另麥格理報告看好乾散貨船中的小靈便型船隊業務,相信最先受惠於行業復甦,以太平洋航運為行業首選,評級「跑贏大市」,目標價看6元。

‘Work on MRT lines should start soon’

‘Work on MRT lines should start soon’

By Sharen Kaur
sharen@mediaprima.com.my
2013/09/06

LINES 2 AND 3: Any delay will result in higher cost, says MRT Corp CEO Mass Rapid Transit Corp Sdn Bhd (MRT Corp) says work on Line 2 and Line 3 of the Klang Valley Mass Rapid Transit (MRT) system should start soon, before the cost escalates.

“Any delay will result in the cost rising... we will also be foregoing the economic benefits the MRT can bring to the country,” said its chief executive officer Datuk Azhar Abdul Hamid.

Thursday, September 5, 2013

Pacific Basin Leads Shipping Rally on Rates: Hong Kong Mover

Pacific Basin Leads Shipping Rally on Rates: Hong Kong Mover
By Jasmine Wang & Billy Chan - Sep 5, 2013 5:10 PM GMT+0800

Pacific Basin Shipping Ltd. (2343), Hong Kong’s biggest dry-bulk carrier, led a rally of shipping stocks in the city today as it surged the most in more than four years on higher freight rates.

The stock jumped 9.5 percent, the biggest gain since July 15, 2009, to close at HK$5.17 in Hong Kong trading today. The city’s benchmark Hang Seng Index increased 1.2 percent.

手握20億訂單‧迪聯前景可期

手握20億訂單‧迪聯前景可期
Created 09/05/2013 - 17:33
(吉隆坡5日訊)迪聯(DELEUM,5132,主板貿服組)手握20億令吉訂單,正競標另10億令吉工程,安聯研究對前景維持正面,預料2013與2014財政年,可錄得11.2%與19.7%成長率,同時藉此股市低迷時期,推荐為累積該股良機。

安聯說,近期股價疲弱提供累積良機,迪聯是油氣業的異數,提供鞏固的盈利成長和穩健股息派發。

安聯在出席迪聯由董事經理南尤斯利主持的匯報會,管理層透露,近期訂單約20億令吉,其中40%為油田服務、50%為電力與機械(P&M),餘者為維修與整修(MRO)業務。

馬幣兌新元寫15年新低‧新加坡客來大馬“拼經濟”

馬幣兌新元寫15年新低‧新加坡客來大馬“拼經濟”
Created 09/05/2013 - 17:30
(吉隆坡5日訊)除了兌美元呈疲弱走勢,近期馬幣兌新元也創下15年新低,不過卻吸引更多新加坡遊客及產業買家前來大馬,並在大馬經濟成長放緩之際提供“緩衝”。

有助緩沖經濟下跌

過去3個月,馬幣兌美元及新元分別走貶了6%及4%,而上個月馬幣兌新元更一度急貶至2.6037,寫下自1998年以來的最低水平。

调整油价以减少赤字—马来西亚boleh吗?

调整油价以减少赤字—马来西亚boleh吗?
文: 杨佳文 2013年09月05日 展望
一只蝴蝶挥动双翅,会在世界的另一端引起海啸。这可能吗?可以肯定的是,美国联邦储备局的决定,会直接影响马来西亚等新兴国家的经济前景。自从联储局主席伯南克表示可能会在今年缩减量化宽松政策的规模,减少为市场注资以来,投资者便开始担心资金将撤离新兴市场。到了最近,印度和印尼的货币大幅贬值,令吉兑美元的汇率也下跌到了三年来的最低水平,突然间,1997年亚洲金融风暴可能再度发生的说法开始流传。联储局“退市”引发的恐慌,突显了一些发展中国家没有在繁荣时期进行经济改革的问题。

印度卢比大幅贬值 建筑商海外获利受损

印度卢比大幅贬值 建筑商海外获利受损
Created 09/05/2013 - 12:22
(吉隆坡4日讯)印度卢比汇率大跌,削弱我国建筑业者源自该市场的盈利贡献,IJM(IJM,3336,主板建筑股)、成荣集团(MUDAJYA,5085,主板建筑股)和依华建台(SENDAI,5205,主板建筑股)都被分析员“点名”。

受到财政和经常账的双赤字影响,加上美国酝酿中削减购债活动,导致印度卢比大跌,来到1卢比仅兑换得0.0147美元的历史最低水平,今年迄今已贬值了19.3%。

虽然印度政府致力于限制资金外流、抑制黄金进口、对非必要进口施于关税限制,及放宽本地企业海外贷款的指南,但至今仍未能阻止卢比的跌势。

Supermax : Awaiting better growth (CIMB)

Supermax Corp
Current RM2.33
Target RM3.02
Awaiting better growth

 This morning’s plant visit has given us reason to be more confident of Supermax’s stronger sales and higher margins when its new nitrile production lines are commissioned. The on-going efforts to build its own distribution arm will also help to ease competitive pressure.

Supermax remains an Outperform, with strong demand and widening margins as catalysts. We maintain our FY13-14 net profit forecasts and increase our FY15 number by 8.4% to factor in the added capacity from its new plant in Glove City. We continue to peg Supermax at 13x CY14 P/E (30% discount to Hartalega’s P/E).

HPH TRUST : SAFE HARBOUR (OCBC)

HPH TRUST
Fair value US$0.76
add: 12m dividend forecast US$0.05
versus: Current price US$0.73
SAFE HARBOUR

Market leader in the Pearl River Delta
Hutchison Port Holdings Trust (HPH Trust) is the biggest container port operator in China’s Pearl River Delta region by throughput, with market shares of around 70% at Hong Kong’s main Kwai Tsing Port and 47% in Shenzhen. The business trust enjoys the backing of sponsor Hutchison Port Holdings, one of the world’s biggest port operators and a subsidiary of HK-listed conglomerate Hutchison Whampoa, headed by billionaire Li Ka-shing.

TOP MALAYSIA SMALL CAP COMPANIES -Eversendai Corp

TOP MALAYSIA SMALL CAP COMPANIES
30 JEWELS 2013 Edition

Eversendai Corp
Target: MYR2.09
Price: MYR1.53
A World-Class Structural Steel Contractor

Investment Merits
•Proxy to oil wealth, or more precisely, the indulgence of oil-rich countries in constructing new iconic buildings that require highly complex steel structures

TOP MALAYSIA SMALL CAP COMPANIES - Ahmad Zaki Resources (RHB)

TOP MALAYSIA SMALL CAP COMPANIES
30 JEWELS 2013 Edition

Ahmad Zaki Resources
Target: MYR1.47
Price: MYR1.00
52-wk Price low/high (MYR) 0.67 - 1.09
Hidden Value In Bunkering, Plantation & Concessions

Investment Merits
¨ A small-cap proxy to public infrastructure spending in Malaysia
¨ Good construction earnings visibility backed by MYR2bn outstanding construction orderbook, MYR1.5bn EKVE internal works and potential new contract wins
¨ Tremendous value in non-construction businesses, ie bunkering operation, plantation and concessions

TOP MALAYSIA SMALL CAP COMPANIES - Deleum

TOP MALAYSIA SMALL CAP COMPANIES
30 JEWELS 2013 Edition

Deleum.
Target: MYR4.40
Price: MYR3.49
More Contracts Coming

Investment Merits
•Key beneficiary of the national oil company’s enhanced oil recovery (EOR) programme
•Key beneficiary of Petronas’ marginal oilfield initiative
•Strong balance sheet to fund further growth

TOP MALAYSIA SMALL CAP COMPANIES-Dayang Enterprise

TOP MALAYSIA SMALL CAP COMPANIES
30 JEWELS 2013 Edition

Dayang Enterprise
Target: MYR6.50
Price: MYR4.81
Solid Orderbook To Bolster Earnings Growth


Investment Merits
•MYR5bn orderbook in the bag
•Solid execution track record
•Strategic alliance with Perdana Petroleum via a 26.1% stake invested in the offshore vessels firm

TOP MALAYSIA SMALL CAP COMPANIES-CB Industrial Product Holding

TOP MALAYSIA SMALL CAP COMPANIES
30 JEWELS 2013 Edition

CB Industrial Product Holding
Target: MYR3.50
Price: MYR2.89
Robust Contract Flows


Investment Merits
•Proxy to the plantation sector, but shielded from CPO price volatilities. Even in low CPO price periods, ongoing capex spending by plantation companies, in preparation for the upcoming maturity of their estates, will drive CBIP’s short-term earnings growth.

Geo Energy : Expanding its portfolio (UOBKH)

Geo Energy
Share Price S$0.36
Expanding its portfolio and takeaways from site visit

Valuation
• Geo Energy (Geo) is currently trading at 13.1x 2012 PE and 2.6x P/B.

Investment Highlights
• Expanding its portfolio. In a span of six months, Geo has entered into conditional sales and purchase agreements for five new mine concessions. These new concessions’ coal (GAR ranging from 4,000- 7,200 kcal/kg) expands Geo’s current offering of only low ranked coal (GAR: 3,400 kcal/kg) from its BEK concession to its customers, and also relieves previous concerns of Geo’s dependency on a single asset.

曾淵滄專欄 05.09.13:阿里上市選擇不多

港交所(388)主席周松崗公開發言,支持阿里巴巴來港上市,雖然市傳證監會反對,但我相信,最後阿里巴巴在港上市的機會相當大。看看港交所的股價昨日逆市上升,近一段日子的股價也節節上升,就可以估計到港交所好事近。若成功讓阿里巴巴在香港上市,港交所今年的集資額又將成為世界第一,除了虛名之外,實際也獲利頗多。

實際上,阿里巴巴的選擇不多,在美國上市的風險極大,中國是美國的假想敵,阿里巴巴在美國上市,將來隨時會被美國政府玩死,訴訟、罰款無日無之。到新加坡上市,則集資額會大打折扣,將來上市後的成交額也一定很低;對新加坡的投資者而言,阿里巴巴是很陌生的名字。因此,最後很可能是馬雲讓步,商討出一個證監會可以接受的上市方案,皆大歡喜。

Making macro headway (CIMB)

Making macro headway
We view positively the government's decision yesterday to raise petrol prices and proceed with MRT 2 & 3 while deferring projects with high import content. This should help assuage concerns over the budget deficit and narrowing current-account surplus.

 The property and construction sectors should be big winners while the likelihood of tariff adjustments for Tenaga has increased. While many other sectors could be losers, the net impact could be renewed confidence in Malaysia's economic outlook. We remain Positive on Malaysia and keep our end-2014 KLCI target of 1,920 pts (15.9x P/E or 10% premium to its 3-year MA). Market catalysts include a stabilisation of regional markets and additional responsible fiscal policies.

SPH REIT : A class act (DBSV)

SPH REIT, HOLD S$0.95 ,
(Initiating Coverage)
A class act
Price Target : 12-Month S$ 0.97

•Portfolio of landmark assets with resilient cashflows
•Backed by reputable sponsor, SPH with a visible acquisition pipeline
•Initiate with HOLD, TP S$0.97

Portfolio of landmark assets. SPH REIT offers investors a unique exposure to the retail and healthcare services industry in Singapore, backed by a portfolio of landmark high quality commercial assets. We believe that the REIT will provide a stable yield platform with growth potential from organic and inorganic means.

F&N – Emergence Of A New Direct F&B Play (UOBKH)

F&N – Emergence Of A New Direct F&B Play

We analyse the valuation of F&N (NOT RATED) following its latest proposal to streamline its property assets via a share distribution in specie. A key risk is the legal dispute over its stake in Myanmar Brewery.

What’s New
• Details of F&N restructuring. We analyse F&N’s proposal to demerge its property business through a dividend in specie (DIS) of all its shares in Frasers Centrepoint Ltd (FCL) and the listing of FCL by way of introduction. The distribution ratio is two FCL shares for every F&N share. The proposal is subject to shareholders’ approval at an extraordinary general meeting to be convened in late-October/early-Nov 13. The book closure and listing of FCL is targeted at end-

Wednesday, September 4, 2013

新厂推动未来成长 速柏玛前景受看好

(吉隆坡4日讯)分析员对速柏玛(SUPERMX,7106,主板工业股)即將于明年首季竣工的新厂房感到正面,因为该新厂房提供的净赚幅介于9至11%,而且其中60%的新產能已经成功取得订单。因此,分析员纷纷看好速柏玛的前景,並继续喊买该股。

速柏玛周三在逆市中走高,该股以2.35令吉开盘,虽然一度收窄涨幅至昨日闭市水平2.33令吉;不过,盘中也一度上探至2.48令吉全天最高水平,在早盘休市则报2.46令吉,起13仙或5.58%,是全场第2大上升股。

午盘交易,该股大部份时间在2.33令吉至2.48令吉区间交易,最后以2.46令吉结束全天交易,起13仙或3.92%,是全场第9大上升股。

美收紧货幣政策 大马GDP增速將放缓

(吉隆坡4日讯)据ICAEW的最新报告显示,美国收紧货幣政策,预料將导致大马的国內生產总值增长放缓。这家会计及金融机构警告说,美国联邦储备局紧缩政策的立场,推升收益率,这也意味著流入东盟的资金料减少。

ICAEW的报告「经济透视:东南亚」是由ICAEW的合作伙伴和经济预测臂膀CEBR擬定。受到ICAEW的委託,该报告为其14万名会员提供东南亚经济体的季度表现的概况;並专注于五大国家,即:印尼、马来西亚、菲律宾、新加坡和泰国。

据该报告指出,整个地区的贷款年均增长预计將从2012下降至2015年。之前,美联储异常宽鬆的货幣政策,带来宽裕的资金,让企业和政府更容易获得融资,资助基础设施和商业项目。这也导致了高通胀率,物业价格走高,以及本地股市大幅的上扬。

I-Bhd JV mall to generate RM60mil in pre-tax profit

I-Bhd JV mall to generate RM60mil in pre-tax profit

BY CHERYL POO
CHERYLPOO@THESTAR.COM.MY

PETALING JAYA: The CentralPlaza@i-City mall, a 60:40 project between Thailand’s leading retail property developer Central Pattana Pcl (CPN) and I-Bhd, is expected to generate RM60mil in pre-tax profit per year during the first lease term, according to I-Bhd deputy chairman Datuk Eu Hong Chew.

He said that by then I-Bhd’s group profits (before the mall contribution) was expected to be in the region of RM200mil per year resulting from growth in property development as well as leisure business.

Non-executive director Jim Rogers takes initial stake in Geo Energy Resources

Written by Gwyneth Yeo  
Monday, 02 September 2013 15:18
International investor James Beeland Rogers Jr, better known as Jim Rogers, has started building his direct stake in Geo Energy Resources. On Aug 22, Rogers acquired 1.7 million shares in the coal mining and trading company at 35.5 cents each. The acquisition was Rogers’ first direct investment in Geo Energy, bringing his direct interest in it to 0.15%.

He is also deemed interested in another 0.17% of the company, owing to an agreement with executive chairman Charles Antonny Melati, granting Rogers a call option over two million of Geo Energy shares belonging to Melati. The call option’s exercise price is 35 cents a share, with an exercise period of 10 years, starting from Jan 1, 2015. Rogers was appointed a non-executive director of Geo Energy in December 2012.

UNI-ASIA HOLDINGS: Expecting To Ride Upturn Of Charter Rates, Ship Values

UNI-ASIA HOLDINGS: Expecting To Ride Upturn Of Charter Rates, Ship Values
Written by Leong Chan Teik
Wednesday, 04 September 2013 07:00

THE BALTIC DRY INDEX has risen over 60% since the start of the year, signalling improving ship charter rates after a deep slump.

Ship prices are on the rise too.

Having identified the shipping sector as its main growth driver, Uni-Asia Holdings on 25 April inked deals to acquire three new 37,000 dwt handysize bulk carriers, which will be delivered from 2014 to 2016.

TOP MALAYSIA SMALL CAP COMPANIES-Wellcall Holdings

TOP MALAYSIA SMALL CAP COMPANIES
30 JEWELS 2013 Edition

Wellcall Holdings
Target: MYR3.08
Price: MYR2.45
Well-Positioned For Growth

Investment Merits
¨ Nation’s largest manufacturer/exporter of industrial rubber hoses
¨ Demand for the Group’s products to remain intact over the next few years, especially from the oil & gas (O&G) sector
¨ Attractive dividend yield of 6%-7% per annum

TOP MALAYSIA SMALL CAP COMPANIES-Tambun Indah Land

TOP MALAYSIA SMALL CAP COMPANIES
30 JEWELS 2013 Edition

Tambun Indah Land
Target: MYR1.71
Price: MYR1.33
Penang Mainland A Solid Place

Investment Merits
¨ Capable management team
¨ The key Penang mainland property play
¨ Further expansion in GDV to drive upside in RNAV

TOP MALAYSIA SMALL CAP COMPANIES-Cahya Mata Sarawak

TOP MALAYSIA SMALL CAP COMPANIES
30 JEWELS 2013 Edition

Cahya Mata Sarawak
Target: MYR7.55
Price: MYR5.60
Excellent Proxy To SCORE

Investment Merits
¨ CMS is a Sarawak-centric conglomerate regarded as the best proxy to SCORE, which is set to propel the state’s development
¨ The Group has a tight grip on the fast-growing cement industry in Sarawak while its other core divisions are set to ride on the state’s growth story
¨ Participating in turning SIP into a reality via its 51% and 20% equity stakes respectively in SPD and ferro alloy smelter

TOP MALAYSIA SMALL CAP COMPANIES -Brahim’s Holdings

TOP MALAYSIA SMALL CAP COMPANIES
30 JEWELS 2013 Edition

Brahim’s Holdings
Target: MYR1.41
Price: MYR0.95
52-wk Price low/high (MYR) 0.75 - 1.16
A Billion Dollar Deal

Investment Merits
¨ Operator of the world’s largest halal flight kitchen
¨ Riding on the growth of passenger traffic from the upcoming KLIA2
¨ Potential M&As to grow the Group into a global halal food player with billion-ringgit revenue

曾淵滄專欄 04.09.13:急升驟跌嚇怕散戶

恒指繼續升,但觀察整個走勢圖,如果恒指無法升破月初的高位,依然有一定的走勢風險,即圓頂下跌的走勢,或頭肩頂下跌的走勢。因此恒指雖急升兩天,一般散戶仍在觀望,畢竟,近一段日子,突然急升及突然急跌的日子出現得太多,散戶早已嚇壞了。

長遠房屋策劃資詢文件公佈,未來10年,總樓宇供應量應該是47萬個單位,比當年董建華的每年八萬五少了,少了就馬上引起不少人批評,認為不夠,那麼,多少才夠?

Pantech : In Expansion Mode (TA)

Pantech Group Holdings Berhad
TP: RM1.42
Last Traded: RM0.97
In Expansion Mode

We attended Pantech’s half-yearly Analysts’ Briefing. The key takeaways are as follows:
_ Compared to 6 months earlier, Pantech has expanded to 6 new countries, bringing its total addressable market to 59 countries worldwide.

_ Pantech had recently secured the following approvals for its products, comprising: 1) carbon steel pipes and induction long bends from Petronas, and 2) nickel alloy fittings by Norway’s NORSOK. In particular, Pantech is optimistic that NORSOK’s approval will enhance product sales significantly given the prestige associated with this certification.

Keppel REIT : More Compelling Valuations For The Best Office Portfolio In Singapore (UOBKH)

Keppel REIT
Share Price S$1.21
Target Price S$1.46
More Compelling Valuations For The Best Office Portfolio In Singapore

Valuations of KREIT are more compelling as it offers a 40bp premium to the average 6.2% yield for office REITs. Equity overhang from a private placement and Keppel Corp’s distribution in-specie is largely removed. KREIT offers the highest-quality Singapore office portfolio and will benefit from the improving office outlook. Upgrade to BUY (from HOLD) with an unchanged target price of S$1.46.

Sheng Siong : After a period of consolidation, focus back on network expansion (CS)

Singapore Discovery Series:
Sheng Siong Group
NOT RATED
After a period of consolidation, focus back on network expansion

● We met with Sheng Siong's management who provided an operational and strategic update on the company. Sheng Siong is the third biggest grocery supermarket chain in Singapore with 33 stores, with main focus on heartland areas around HDB hubs.

● The Group believes its focus on heartland areas and a superior wet groceries is a strategic advantage. To increase margins, the group intends to focus on increasing contribution of high margin wet groceries (30% of sales) and inhouse brands (5% of revenues).

Geo Energy : NEW KID ON THE MINING BLOCK (OCBC)

Geo Energy
Fair value na
add: 12m dividend forecast na
versus: Current price S$0.360

NEW KID ON THE MINING BLOCK
• Now a mine owner
• Adding five more concessions
• 15x PER vs. peers’ 36x

Geo Energy Group
Geo Energy Group (GEG) is a coal mining specialist in Indonesia, which started as a mining contractor, and has since moved on to become a mine owner. It currently owns the BEK Mining Concession (which we visited recently) and has entered into five other mining concessions.

财技解码:美银拟配售全部建行股份

财技解码:美银拟配售全部建行股份
http://paper.wenweipo.com   [2013-09-04]      
 昨天收市后有消息指,美银美林拟配售所持有的全部建行(0939)股份,合共20亿股H股旧股,每股介乎5.63元至5.81元,较昨天收市价5.93元折让2%至5.1%,套现14.53亿美元至14.99亿美元,即介乎113.33亿港元至116.92亿港元。美银美林持有的上述股份禁售期上月底届满。该行过去近5年曾4度减持建行。

内银经营两大忧虑
 自2011年以来,内地经济走势反覆,市场对内地金融体系的潜在风险疑虑加大。市场对内银经营的最大忧虑主要来自两方面:一是反映资产质素指标之一的不良贷款率将提高。资产质素的压力主要来自地方政府融资平台、

美银尽沽建行 8年情结束

美银尽沽建行 8年情结束
http://paper.wenweipo.com   [2013-09-04]

 香港文汇报讯(记者 陈远威)预期加息周期渐近,引发美资回流,再有内银被美资机构减持。市场指建设银行(0939)遭美国银行试盘配售全数20亿股旧股,最多套现116亿元,结束8年战略合作关系。这将是继今年5月高盛配售工行(1398)后,另一美资减持内银股离场。建行昨收报5.93元,升1.89%;全日交易额18.31亿元,沽空金额4.97亿元,沽空比率逾27%,是昨日捱沽最多的股份。

Takeover puts Tune Insurance on rapid growth

Takeover puts Tune Insurance on rapid growth

By Lidiana Rosli
lidiana@mediaprima.com.my
2013/09/04

KUALA LUMPUR: Tune Insurance Malaysia Bhd's business has grown rapidly since it was acquired by Tune Ins Holdings Bhd in May last year, says chief exceutive officer Danie Su Tieng Teck.

"Before Tune Ins stepped into the picture and our subsequent partnership with AirAsia Bhd, this company was up for sale and it was difficult to retain good staff, attract new talent and grow the business," he told Business Times recently.

Tuesday, September 3, 2013

OCK 集团放眼拓泰印商机

OCK 集团放眼拓泰印商机
Created 09/03/2013 - 12:41
(吉隆坡2日讯)通讯网络服务商OCK集团(OCK,0172,创业板),随着在缅甸和柬埔寨设立子公司后,继续放眼在泰国和印尼寻求商机。

“在这个全球化时代,已经没有所谓的商业障碍,我们认为周边邻国有改善通讯网络的需要,这就是商机。”

《星报》引述OCK集团董事经理黄贞焜表示,该集团自去年底起,就在研究投资于东南亚市场的可行性。

9月必跌魔咒再显现 马股跌势或续放大

9月必跌魔咒再显现 马股跌势或续放大
Created 09/03/2013 - 07:55
(吉隆坡2日讯)根据过往记录,自1998年亚洲金融风暴后马股陷入“9月魔咒”,跌幅往往比8月来得大,而今年加上热钱大举撤出和令吉贬值的不利因素,8月“跌跌不休”之势可能在本月继续放大。

由于联储局将收窄每月850亿美元购债规模,促使流入新兴国家的热钱纷纷回撤,加上叙利亚爆发战争危机,让马股协同亚洲股市在8月杪惨跌。

MIDF投资研究今日在报告中指出,自1998年亚洲金融风暴以来,富时隆综指在9月份平均下滑2.9%,而8月份则仅跌0.7%。

Parkson Holdings : Slowdown in all markets (DBSV)

Parkson Holdings
HOLD RM3.30
KLCI : 1,701.24
Price Target : 12-Month RM 3.30 (Prev RM 4.45)
Slowdown in all markets

4Q13 net profit of RM30m was below expectation
Earnings were dragged by weaker consumer spending in China and Malaysia
Cut FY14-15F EPS by 22%-39% to reflect slower earnings growth at all key markets
Maintain HOLD with lower RNAV-based RM3.30 TP

Highlights
4Q/FY13 earnings below expectations. Parkson recorded 4QFY13 net profit of RM30.2m (-63% y-o-y, -61% q-o-q) on the back of RM802m revenue (+0.2% y-o-y, -14% q-o-q). This is only 78% of our full year net profit.

Muhibbah Engineering : Stronger construction earnings (DBSV)

Muhibbah Engineering
BUY RM2.18
KLCI : 1,727.58
Price Target : 12-Month RM 3.10
Stronger construction earnings

2Q13 net profit of RM21m was in line; y-o-y earnings growth largely supported by infrastructure construction
Expect 2H13 earnings to be driven by higher progress billings for existing orderbook
Maintain BUY with RM3.10 TP

Highlights
2Q13 results in line. Net profit grew 21.5% y-o-y to RM20.7m although revenue fell 35% to RM406.6m, taking 1H13 profit to RM40.5m (+21% y-o-y) or 42% of our full year forecast. We expect 2H13 to be stronger, driven by higher progress billings of its existing orderbook and seasonally stronger concession earnings from Cambodia airports.

TOP MALAYSIA SMALL CAP COMPANIES -Instacom Group

TOP MALAYSIA SMALL CAP COMPANIES
30 JEWELS 2013 Edition

Instacom Group
Target: MYR0.46
Price: MYR0.32
52-wk Price low/high (MYR) 0.22 - 0.43
Towering Ambitions
Investment Merits
¨ A strong end-to-end telecommunications network service provider in East Malaysia
¨ Potential beneficiary from the rollout of LTE services and USP fund projects in Sabah and Sarawak
¨ Looking to venture further into the telecommunications infrastructure leasing market
¨ Robust revenue and earnings outlook for the next few years
¨ Buy, with TP MYR0.46, based on 13x FY14F EPS

Sunway Real Estate Investment Trust : MANAGEMENT REPLY: What will it do with the underperforming office segment?

The REIT's office segment underperformed this quarter, with negative prospects ahead. What will the REIT manager do in the short term and long term with the underperforming office segment?

26/8/2013 – The manager of Sunway REIT says it is committed to distribute 100% of its distributable net income for FY2014.

It expects sustained or minimal impact to DPU for FY2014 despite the loss of income from Sunway Putra Mall.

This is because it expects organic growth from the existing assets of the REIT's portfolio to prop up its income.

Noble Group MANGEMENT REPLY: When will its agriculture division turn around?

Noble Group

22/8/2013 – Analysts have responded to Noble Group's Q2 results with downgrades, saying its agriculture segment continues to be a drag on its overall profitability.

OCBC Research has downgraded it to a SELL and dropped its price target from S$1.09 to S$0.76 – a level not seen since early 2009.

OSK Research also downgraded the stock to NEUTRAL with a lower target of S$0.85.

DBS Vickers Research has maintained its HOLD rating with target priced lowered to S$0.93.

Yongnam : MANAGEMENT REPLY: Can it replenish the order book in time – which of the brokers is right?

Yongnam Holdings Ltd - MANAGEMENT REPLY: Can it replenish the order book in time – which of the brokers is right?
Investor Central
By Ashish Saxena | Investor Central –

20/8/2013 – Yongnam Holdings Ltd's second quarter performance was hit by the bankruptcy of MRT Downtown Line's main contractor, Alpine Bau GmbH.

The company was also betting big on the two airport projects it had bid for in Myanmar.

But it didn't win either of the deals.

Myanmar's Department of Civil Aviation awarded the deal for Hanthawaddy International Airport, about 50 miles from Yangon, to a consortium led by South Korea's government-run Incheon International Airport Corp.

Sunway : Outperformance Driven by Strong Progress Billings (TA)

Sunway Berhad
TP: RM3.83
Last Traded: RM2.75
Outperformance Driven by Strong Progress Billings

Review
_ Sunway Berhad’s (Sunway) 1H13 core net profit (excluding fair value gain and gain on derivatives) of RM201.1mn beat analysts’ expectations. The outperformance can be attributed to stronger-than-expected progress billing from the property development division and higher revenue from trading & services and quarry divisions.

_ An interim single tier dividend of 5sen/share was declared for this quarter. Note that Sunway’s board has decided to pay dividends on a semi-annual basis with effect from FY2013 onwards. We are mildly positive on this new dividend policy.

Micro-Mechanics : Perfect Parts and Tools. On-Time, Every Time (NRA)

Micro-Mechanics (Holdings) Ltd – FY2013 results review
Perfect Parts and Tools. On-Time, Every Time
Synopsis: Micro-Mechanics' FY2013 net profit increased by 21% yoy to S$5.1m. The group’s stronger bottom line performance was achieved on the back of higher gross profit margin and its tight rein on expenses as revenue in FY2013 was relatively flat at S$39.1m, compared to S$38.8m in FY2012.

Micro-Mechanics' FY2013 net profit increased by 21% yoy to S$5.1m. The group’s stronger bottom line performance was achieved on the back of higher gross profit margin and its tight rein on expenses as revenue in FY2013 was relatively flat at S$39.1m, compared to S$38.8m in FY2012.

Wilmar International : Can it catch up in the second half – which of the brokers is right?

Wilmar International

28/8/2013 – Analysts appear to be more optimistic about the prospects for Wilmar International than even the management, after the palm oil conglomerate posted second quarter results.

Management says the operating environment remains challenging, but analysts expect more from H2 2013.

Price targets range from the highest at S$3.72 to the lowest at S$2.49.

The company reported these financial results for Q2 FY13 on August 6:

Revenue: -5.4% YoY to US$10.43 bln
Net Profit: +86.5% YoY to US$218.5 mln
Cash flow from operations: US$103.3 mln vs US$204.3 mln
Cash Reserves: US$1.22 bln vs US$1.11 bln

Najib: MRT project will proceed as planned

Najib: MRT project will proceed as planned
Posted on 3 September 2013 - 05:40am
Hemananthani Sivanandam
sunbiz@thesundaily.com

PUTRAJAYA (Sept 3, 2013): Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Abdul Razak has given assurance that work on the mass rapid transit (MRT) lines 1, 2 and 3 will proceed as planned, and that the government is still in negotiations to build a high-speed rail (HSR) link between Kuala Lumpur and Singapore.

"There is no fixed timeline for the HSR project as it involves negotiations with the Singapore government and there are technical matters involved so we will come up with a schedule later on," he told a news conference at his office here yesterday, after the Fiscal Policy Committee (FPC) meeting which was chaired by the prime minister.

Internet banking made easier

Internet banking made easier

KUALA LUMPUR: Internet banking will be made easier come March next year when all banks provide at least one Internet banking kiosk at all their branches to give the public better access to online banking and Interbank Giro (IBG) services.

This is in line with Bank Negara’s effort to encourage and speed up migration to e-payments, which is one of the key strategies in the central bank’s financial sector blueprint to be achieved by 2020.

Bank Negara deputy governor Datuk Muhammad Ibrahim told a press briefing yesterday that research indicated Internet banking had the potential to generate savings of about 1% of gross domestic product (GDP) annually.

REHDA: Imposing higher RPGT, stamp duty will not curb property prices

REHDA: Imposing higher RPGT, stamp duty will not curb property prices

PETALING JAYA: Imposing higher real property gains tax (RPGT) and stamp duty will not curb the suation of increasing property, said Real Estate and Housing Developers' Association (REHDA).

Its President, Datuk Seri Michael KC Yam, said this was because speculation only occurred in certain hotspots and not in the affordable segment of the market.

He said because of some of these hotspots, such as Bangsar and Mont Kiara, tightening measures were imposed, which could affect 95% of the market.

Lum Chang : Results Review (S&P)

Lum Chang Holdings
Price: SGD0.34

Results Review
LCH FY13 (Jun.) net profit of SGD21.5 mln (+2.3% YoY) took into account net fair value gains on investment properties of SGD5.8 mln, which stripped out, sees SGD15.6 mln in adjusted net profit. The latter came in above our expectations with better-than-expected gross margin of 10.9% (FY13E:9.5%) and lower taxation. These were partially offset by higher administration expenses and marketing expenses. A final net DPS of 1.25 cent was declared, bringing the total net DPS for FY13 to 2 cents (FY12:2 cents)

Amtek Engineering : Signs of bottoming (CS)

Amtek Engineering Ltd.
Maintain NEUTRAL
Price (29 Aug 13, S$) 0.48
TP (prev. TP S$) 0.56 (0.70)
Signs of bottoming; cheap valuations and 7-8% yield to provide downside support

● Amtek's 4Q13 net profit of US$10.9 mn (25% YoY) was better than expected with help from gain on sale of properties. Overall, while group revenue weakness (-7% YoY) continued, there were signs of bottoming in certain segments and margins were resilient.

● Reversing two years of revenue decline, some of the key segments are showing signs of bottoming: 1) casings sales have started growing due to new programmes; 2) increasing market share in automotives with new programme wins; 3) continued record tooling sales could mean higher volumes going into FY14.

S-REIT : Not time to bottom-fish yet (MKE)

 ▪ S-REITs are currently trading at FY13F yields of 6.6%, above its historic average of 6.3%. While yields appear attractive, we think it is still early to enter the market at this juncture.

▪ We expect further volatility in the bond market, especially with several macroeconomic uncertainties facing the United States and the global economy as we head into September, namely: (1) possible QE tapering during the upcoming FOMC meeting on 17-18 Sep, (2) budget debate in Washington, (3) Germany election, and (4) imminent U.S. strike on Syria.

▪ Market overhang now lies with impending hikes in interest rates and the possible recalibration of over-inflated property prices – which can drag down NAV. In terms of sector trough valuations, we will advise investors to relook at the S-REITs space at DPU yields of 7% and above on average for the sector. This is pegged to a historic yield spread of 380 bps and longer-term risk-free rate of 3.0-3.5% (Currently 2.7%). This implies further price downside of at least 7%. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT on the overall sector.

House prices increasing due to high costs, say developers

House prices increasing due to high costs, say developers
Sharen Kaur
sharen@mediaprima.com.my
2013/09/03

KELANA JAYA: Property developers say increasing house prices are due to high compliance and construction costs.

They also attribute the rising cost to government agencies, especially local authorities and utility companies, said Real Estate and Housing Developers' Association Malaysia (Rehda) deputy secretary-general (Melaka branch) Datuk Anthony Adam Cho.

Monday, September 2, 2013

Indofood offers $488 mil cash for rest of China Minzhong

Written by Bloomberg  
Monday, 02 September 2013 19:56
PT Indofood Sukses Makmur, controlled by Indonesian billionaire Anthoni Salim’s investment company, offered $488 million cash for the rest of China Minzhong Food Corp., the vegetable processor that slumped after a short-seller’s allegations.

Indofood bid $1.12 apiece for Putian, China-based Minzhong, the Jakarta-based company said today in a statement, giving the stock its biggest gain since its debut in 2010. The price is more than double the 53 cents that Minzhong fell to on Aug. 26 before the stock was suspended from trading.

业绩逊色 实康財测下调

(吉隆坡2日讯)由于建筑业务蒙亏,导致实康工程(SALCON,8567,主板贸服股)2013財政年次季(截至6月30日止)业绩比预期逊色,因此,分析员下修该公司2013財政年的盈利预测。

隨著业绩表现不如预期,实康工程的股价在周二下跌2仙或3.12%,收报0.62令吉。实康工程次季净利从25万令吉按年激增423.9%,至131万令吉;营业额则从6972万令吉下滑3.07%,至6758万令吉。

上半年而言,该公司的净利为373万令吉,较去年同期的275万令吉,增加35.53%;营业额为1亿3836万令吉,较去年同期的1亿4866万令吉,下跌6.93%。

電子付費 每年省1%GDP‧全國銀行倡導網上轉賬

電子付費 每年省1%GDP‧全國銀行倡導網上轉賬
Created 09/02/2013 - 18:08
(吉隆坡2日訊)國家銀行副總裁莫哈末依布拉欣指出,根據研究顯示,善用電子付費系統(e-payment),每年可為國家節省國內生產總值的1%。

他說,為了推動電子付費系統,明年4月起,銀行承諾的每家分行提供至少1台網上銀行服務機器,讓無法自行上網的客戶也能使用網上銀行服務和跨行轉賬。

QE未退外资先逃 马股跌盪现进场契机

美国联储局(Fed)主席柏南克今年6月宣佈,可能会在今年晚些时候缩小债券购买的力度,最快也许將在9月就开始收紧银根。这项宣佈宛如向市场投下一颗计时炸弹,不料还未引爆,全球股市於8月20日(周二)便在外资陆续撤资下急速败跌!

大马股市过去一周更面对双重衝击,第一波衝击是在8月20日。马股在这一天损失惨重,外资要钱不要票,当天捲走10亿4625万令吉,致使综合指数一度重摔至1737.58点,最终收报1745.96点。

马股尚未喘定,第二波衝击接踵而来,国家银行21日(周三)宣佈次季国內生產总值(GDP)只成长4.3%,並將全年GDP成长预测调降至4.5%-5%。外资因而在22日加速拋售马股,综合指数一度压低至1714点,不过还是守住1700点。

Protasco keen on onshore exploration

Protasco keen on onshore exploration
Posted on 2 September 2013 - 05:37am
Rupinder Singh
sunbiz@thesundaily.com

PETALING JAYA (Sept 2, 2013): Protasco Bhd, which saw its net profit double in the second quarter ended June 30, 2013, jumping to RM14.85 million from RM7.11 million a year ago, thanks to higher contributions from its maintenance, construction and trading segments, said its proposed acquisition of an oil and gas (O&G) outfit in Indonesia would be a stepping stone for the group to secure more future upstream jobs in the region, its top executive said.

Protasco executive chairman and group managing director Chong Ket Pen (pix) said the group is keen to go into onshore O&G exploration if it is successful in its US$55 million bid to buy 75% of PT Anglo Slavic Indonesia (PT ASI).

亚洲金融风暴重临?

亚洲金融风暴重临?
Created 09/02/2013 - 13:35
有一说法:“本轮国际金融危机以美国次级房贷危机为起点,欧债危机为中场,新兴经济体崩溃为终点。”

美国联储局6月释出紧缩量化宽松政策的动向,外资纷纷回撤资金,新兴市场首当其冲,经历大规模的资金外逃。

屋漏偏逢连夜雨,“双印”等新兴国家经济基本面频敲警钟,来往账项恶化情况导致投资者避之唯恐不及,股汇市齐齐重挫,日日刷新低点记录。

Network services provider OCK in expansion mode

Network services provider OCK in expansion mode

BY NG BEI SHAN
BEISHAN@THESTAR.COM.MY

PUCHONG: After setting up a subsidiary in Myanmar in July, followed by the incorporation of a unit in Cambodia last month, OCK Group Bhd is looking at Thailand and Indonesia for more potential business opportunities.

Managing director Sam Ooi said the telco network services provider has been studying and researching about venturing into some of the South-East Asian markets since the end of last year.

智勇部署‧不怕崩盤

智勇部署‧不怕崩盤
Created 09/02/2013 - 11:25
馬股劇情近來因外資逆流而急轉直下,廣大投資者如熱鍋上的螞蟻,有股的猶豫該不該當機立斷斬倉,沒股的,則疑惑何時才是趁低進場良機。

在這危市的季節,人人都有煩惱。

由於馬股仍未擺脫危險期,本期《焦點策劃》將與各位分享系列實戰的“危市崩盤攻略”,除了發掘可能浮現投資價值的股項外,亦分享更安全的“趁低吸購模式”,希望助投資者擺脫困惑,一舉擊潰“崩盤”魔咒。

10大市值股蒸發122億

10大市值股蒸發122億
Created 09/01/2013 - 18:26
一場“狼來了!”上演中,美國量化寬鬆9月潛在退場,導致馬股8月臨尾承受市場的強勁賣壓而失利,全場市值跟著猛烈蒸發,10大市值股按月市值縮減了121億9千300萬令吉。

以馬股全場市值計,則從7月杪的1兆6千110億9千萬令吉,蒸發了472億4千萬令吉至8月杪的1兆5千638億5千萬令吉。

這歸咎於馬股從8月中旬起大幅震盪,市場游資對美國收水論聞之喪膽,加上又傳來美國及多個盟友可能會對敘利亞動武,更加深了震動力,馬股猶如驚弓之鳥,直線滑落,前週二也一度暴挫逾40點,市值頓時大量丟失。

雙威進軍依斯干達

雙威進軍依斯干達
Created 09/02/2013 - 11:05
雙威(SUNWAY,5211,主板產業組)年杪或明年初推出依斯干達首個產業計劃,並於第三季在新山市區推出圍籬半獨立洋房產業。

該公司首席財務員張振忠早前在“透視依斯干達”講座上披露,雙威將在今年杪或明年初,在Medini推出首個產業計劃,發展三合一綜合產業,包括上層為公寓及辦公套房,底樓為零售商場。

他指出,這項產業為公司進軍依斯干達的首個產業計劃,發展總值(GDV)介於3億至3億5千萬令吉,僅佔依斯干達總地庫的幾英畝面積及1%的發展總值。

凭单专栏:星光资源-WA 大股东近沽清不可长持

凭单专栏:星光资源-WA 大股东近沽清不可长持
Created 09/02/2013 - 13:20
星光资源(SKPRES,7155,主板工业股)的母股和凭单在最近两周交易量显著提高,星光资源的购兴开始是因为大股东拿督颜金发增持母股而受刺激。

可是之后公司披露拿督颜金发几乎沽清手中所有凭单,使得凭单价未能像母股在近期调整后显著反弹,星光资源母股和凭单(SKPRES-WA)在上周五分别以34仙和7仙闭市。

星光资源在上周五闭市后宣布6月30日结束的2014财政年首季业绩报告。该公司的营业额和净盈利都比上个财政年同期下跌。

星光资源的首季净盈利达914万令吉,比去年同期的1,182万令吉逊色。

SKP Resources : No Sign of Abating (TA)

SKP Resources
Last traded: RM0.34
TP: RM0.65
No Sign of Abating

Review
_ In line with expectations. SKP Resources’ (SKP) 1QFY14 net profit came in at 19.5% of our full-year forecast. However, we consider this to be within expectation as we have factored in capacity expansion towards late-FY14.

_ Snapping the fall in revenue. SKP managed to reverse the drop in revenue with 1QFY14 revenue increased 22.9% QoQ to RM108.3mn. PBT margin surged to 11.2% (10.5% in 4QFY13), contributing to the increase in net profit by 29.6% QoQ to RM9.1mn. According to management, the increases in revenue and profit were due to increased orders from new and existing customers.

曾淵滄專欄 02.09.13:退市陰影玩殘股市

英國國會否決攻打敍利亞動議,北約也決定不參與;美國民意調查只有20%民眾支持發動戰爭,現在輪到美國總統奧巴馬騎虎難下,不打則沒面子,打則違反民意。看來,奧巴馬已打算借國會之名找下台階,或象徵式射幾枚導彈「懲罰」敍利亞政府,為自己挽回一點面子。

因此,焦點依然回到美國退市的陰影,整個8月份,美股跌幅不小,道指已接近6月份的低位,6月份的跌市是為了退市,8月份的跌市也是為了退市。我倒是希望9月份聯儲局議息後會退市,因為若9月份不退市,市場就繼續炒作退市因素;反正,遲早退市,最終一定要退市。不要以為9月份不退市,股市會大升;9月份不退市,投資者會擔心10月份退市……長期的退市陰影,對股市的破壞力更大。

Dr Chan’s Take On The Global Economies

30 AUGUST 2013
Dr Chan’s Take On The Global Economies
By Nicholas Tan

With all eyes fixated on the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting in September, the investment community is eagerly watching in anticipation of signs that would hint of the beginning of the stimulus tapering, marking the end of easy money that has become a norm in recent years. How will the imminent end of quantitative easing change the world? Shares Investment finds out what is Dr Chan Yan Chong’s take on this as well as his views on the developments evolving in the global economies in an exclusive phone interview.

Shares Investment: Financial markets have scrutinised the FOMC’s July meeting minutes and now expects to see a cut back in bond purchases at the next September meeting. How much do you expect the Fed to rein-in? Do you foresee the anticipated tapering derailing the US recovery in 2014?

KSL Holdings : Property Development Coming In Strongly (RHB)

KSL Holdings
Target Price: MYR2.21
Price: MYR1.93
52-wk Price low/high (MYR) 1.40 - 2.31
Property Development Coming In Strongly

KSL’s 2Q13 results came in above our and market expectations. The strong earnings were mainly driven by higher progress billings from the ongoing projects in Iskandar, especially in Johor Bahru. Meanwhile, income from investment properties remained stable. We maintain our NEUTRAL rating and MYR2.21 FV. The sector outlook is increasingly challenging due to concerns on economic and regulatory risks.

Sin Heng Enjoys Fruitful Year; Postures For A New Breakthrough

30 AUGUST 2013
Sin Heng Enjoys Fruitful Year; Postures For A New Breakthrough
By Choo Hao Xiang

As the saying goes, you must have your next idea waiting in the wings to stay ahead. Coming up with something good would indeed need tons of work; nonetheless, a necessary preparation in today’s intensely competitive environment. That is how Sin Heng Heavy Machinery Limitedintends to keep itself ahead of the curve. Be it getting its hands on the latest technology or being a first mover in an emerging nation, the home-grown crane operator is readying itself for its next big break.

Sunway : Attractive entry point (DBSV)

Sunway Berhad
BUY RM2.75
(Upgrade from Hold)
KLCI : 1,703.78
Price Target : 12-Month RM 3.50 (Prev RM 3.40)
Attractive entry point

2Q13 earnings beat expectations
Record orderbook and strong unbilled sales
Next catalyst is launch of Medini, Iskandar
Upgrade to BUY, nudged up TP to RM3.50

Renewed optimism. We upgrade Sunway to BUY and nudged up TP to RM3.50 (10% discount to SOP), premised on the following: i) strong 2-3 years earnings visibility underpinned by its record construction orderbook (RM1.8bn contract wins YTD,

Addressing public finances (DBSV)

Market Focus
KLCI : 1,703.78
Addressing public finances
Upcoming measures to reduce fiscal deficit and improve current account position.
Reprioritisation of Government projects could result in potential delays for oil & gas projects.
Possible near-term headwinds for the property sector
Tenaga will benefit if a cost pass-through mechanism is introduced

Measures to improve finances. The Goods and Services Tax (GST) will likely be announced in the upcoming Budget that will be tabled in Parliament on 25 October 2013. Gradual cuts in subsidies are also likely, which will result in higher fuel and energy prices. Although these measures will contribute towards improving the fiscal deficit, it will also result in higher inflation. Weaker spending could hurt consumer players such as Padini (Hold) and Parkson (Hold). A cost pass-through mechanism will be positive for Tenaga (Buy).

Parkson : Rough FY13 for Parkson (MIDF)

Parkson Holdings Berhad
Maintain NEUTRAL
Price (27 Aug ‘13) RM3.30
Target Price RM3.60
Rough FY13 for Parkson

While FY13 revenue gained 2.4%yoy, operating profit plunged 28.8%yoy.
FY13 net profit was further impacted by a 5.3ppt increased in the effective tax rate applied.
Maintain NEUTRAL at a lower target price of RM3.60

Below expectations. Parkson Holdings Berhad (Parkson or the Group) registered a FY13 net profit of RM240.4m, which lagged ours and consensus’ expectations at 85.2% and 83.9% respectively of full year estimates.

Fraser & Neave : Dispute over Myanmar Brewery (CIMB)

Fraser & Neave
Current S$5.72
Target S$6.61
Dispute over Myanmar Brewery

 FNN’s JV partner in Myanmar Brewery has issued a notice of arbitration and given notice to FNN to sell its stake back to them. While management is not able to provide details for confidentiality reasons, it strongly believes that there is no basis for such an action.

In a worst case that FNN’s 55% stake is sold at a lowball price, we estimate that FNN (ex-FCL) is likely to take earnings and valuation hits of c.24% and 14%, respectively. There is no impact on FCL As it is early days yet, we keep our Outperform call with unchanged estimates and SOP-based target price with a 20% discount to its property RNAV with more corporate actions as catalysts.

Thai Beverage : Changes in excise tax law (CIMB)

Thai Beverage
Current S$0.52
Target S$0.71
Changes in excise tax law.

 We understand that there will be changes to the alcoholic excise tax policy motivated by the government’s desire to prevent importers from understating cost. There is little clarity at this stage but we do not think that Spirits margins will be adversely affected. In fact, Spirits volume may benefit.

There has been no official statement yet but we do not think that these changes will be detrimental to spirits margin. There are no changes to our FY13-15 EPS estimates and SOP-based target price for now. We keep our Outperform call and expect re-rating catalysts from further corporate restructuring.

Singapore REITs What happens if interest rates go up? (HSBC)

Singapore REITs
What happens if interest rates go up?

Sector will likely struggle to perform in anticipation of interest rate up-cycle coupled with slower growth prospects
Be selective: our top picks are AREIT and FCT, both rated OW
We initiate coverage on KREIT at Neutral with a TP of SGD1.25

Recent correction not necessarily a buying opportunity. Despite the sector’s 18% decline since April, valuations are only back to their historical averages. Coupled with a lacklustre growth outlook and the spectre of rising interest rates, we expect the sector will continue to struggle to perform in the medium term. Against this backdrop, we recommend being selective and picking REITs that have strong balance sheet metrics, a good management track record, reasonable valuations and decent growth prospects. Our top picks among Singapore REITs are AREIT and FCT, both rated OW.

Yoma Strategic : A play on economic growth in Myanmar (CS)

Singapore Discovery Series:
Yoma Strategic Holdings Ltd
NOT RATED
A play on economic growth in Myanmar

● We met with Yoma management for an update on the company.

● Yoma is a real estate major in Myanmar, with interests in automotive retail, agriculture and luxury tourism sectors. Yoma believes they are well placed to partner global enterprises now looking to start businesses in Myanmar, but also say real estate will continue to dominate their business mix near term.

Sunday, September 1, 2013

两周虽跌2%惟续走强 1新元或兑2.75令吉

两周虽跌2%惟续走强 1新元或兑2.75令吉
Created 09/01/2013 - 08:05
(新加坡31日讯)新元两周内跌2%,但分析师认为未来三到六个月,新元兑令吉的汇率有可能继续走强,或达到1新元可以兑换2.75令吉。

区域货币过去几周猛泻,其中以印度卢比、印尼盾、泰铢和令吉等跌幅最为明显。

新元似乎也无法幸免,过去两周就跌了2%。

不过,分析师却认为未来三到六个月,新元兑令吉的汇率还是会继续走强。

新兴重型机械业绩彪炳;准备迎来新突破

新兴重型机械业绩彪炳;准备迎来新突破
文: 朱皓翔 (译:麦美莹) 2013年08月30日 企业摘要

未雨绸缪才能快人一步。周详的计划自然需要很多筹划和预备,但是在今时今日竞争激烈的环境里,这是必然要做的事,而新兴重型机械有限公司(Sin Heng Heavy Machinery Limited)就是希望藉此保持其领导地位。无论是在新科技的掌握,或者是在新兴市场中取得先行优势,这家在本地发迹的起重机营运商时时刻刻都为即将出现的大好机会准备就绪。

当商机出现的时候,谁也不肯轻易放过。可是,要抓住商机,就得在财务及运作上部署好,才可以确保会带来满意的成果。

Supermax : Great recovery (CIMB)

Supermax
Current RM2.27
Target RM3.02
Great recovery

 1H13 EPS rose by 17.1% yoy on the back of a 35.4% yoy increase in revenue as Supermax benefited from additional capacity, more efficient refurbished lines and a better product mix. At 50% of our and consensus full-year estimates, 1H13 earnings are within expectations.

We maintain our earnings estimates but raise our target price as we now apply a CY14 P/E of 13x, based on a 30% discount (prev. 40%) to Hartalega’s target P/E. The higher contribution from nitrile and surgical gloves following its expansion will widen its margin and narrow the margin gap with Hartalega. Supermax remains an Outperform as its current FY13 P/E of 10x is not reflective of its fundamentals.

ICBC : Well rounded performance (DBSV)

ICBC
BUY HK$5.06
HSI : 21,705
Price Target : 12-Month HK$ 6.60 (Prev HK$ 6.57)
Well rounded performance

2Q earnings beat estimates
Asset quality better than expected with stabilizing NPL trend
Capital position remains solid
Maintain BUY with revised DDM-TP of HK$6.6

Results lifted by fee income. ICBC’s 2Q earnings grew 13% y-o-y to Rmb69.6bn, 10% above our estimates or 5% higher than a Bloomberg survey. Key positives are higher than expected fee income and lower credit cost. 1H13 net profit accounted for 55%/54% of our or consensus full year forecasts.

Bank of China : Bank on high yields (DBSV)

Bank of China
BUY HK$3.28
HSI : 21,705
Price Target : 12-Month HK$4.34 (Prev HK$ 4.28)
Bank on high yields

Tweaked up estimates after positive 2Q
BOC saw a moderate increase in overdue loans
Capital is relatively low, but dividend yields can still be relatively high
Maintain BUY for attractive yields

Tweaked up estimates after positive 2Q earnings. BOC’s 2Q13 net profit grew 17% yoy to Rmb40.9bn, which was 14% above our estimate and 7% above a Bloomberg survey mean. Key positive surprises to our estimate were NIM, operating costs, and provisions. We have nudged up our FY13-14F EPS forecasts by 2- 4% to factor in better NIM and operating cost trends. However, we remain cautious on BOC’s future provisions, as there was a moderate increase in the bank’s overdue loans.

Sunway : Jobs making a comeback (CIMB)

Sunway
Current RM2.75
Target RM3.25
Jobs making a comeback

 Annualised 1H13 core net profit was 1-2% above our and consensus’ full-year numbers. The results were above expectations due to over estimated tax rates, while 2H’s results should be better. 2H’s job flows should be good. The share price correction presents a good entry point.

Lower tax rates drive our FY13-15 EPS upgrades. But our target price (based on a 20% RNAV discount) is reduced as we update for balance sheet items. Maintain Outperform as the stock should continue to benefit from the Iskandar newsflow, with added catalysts from job wins and new land acquisitions. The stock’s real value is anchored by its huge land bank and longer-term prospects in Iskandar.

【石Sir手記】第十六集:內銀股買唔買得過



Agricultural Bank of China : Leading earnings from laggard (DBSV)

Agricultural Bank of China
BUY HK$3.29
HSI : 21,525
Price Target : 12-Month HK$4.63 (Prev HK$4.59)
Leading earnings from laggard

Similar to other banks, 2Q earnings beat forecasts
Unlike other banks, we have more faith in ABC’s earnings sustainability
Capital remains borderline but we do not foresee equity dilution risk
Reiterate BUY for this non-consensus top pick

Earnings beat estimates like other banks. Like most Hshare banks, ABC reported upbeat 2Q13 net profit figures. The bank’s 2Q13 net profit gained 22% to Rmb45.3bn, and beat our estimates by 12% and a Bloomberg survey by 8%. ABC’s 1H13 net profit made up 57.5% of consensus full year forecast. Key positive surprises were fees, cost efficiency, and credit costs. Capital was the only blemish in this set of results, as ABC’s core T1 CAR and T1 CAR remain lower than Big 4 peers at 9.11%.

Coastal Contracts : Hitting The Right Notes In 2Q13 (Kenanga)

Coastal Contracts
Price: RM2.75
Target Price: RM3.87
Hitting The Right Notes In 2Q13

Actual vs. Expectations
Coastal Contract Bhd (“COASTAL”)’s 2Q13 net profit of RM32.0m brought its 1H13 net profit to RM63.1m. This is within our (RM135.4m) and consensus (RM134.8m) full-year expectations, at approximately 47.0% halftime fulfilment rate.

Dividends
A 3.0 sen NDPS was declared in the quarter within our anticipated 6.2 sen DPS and above the 2.8 sen declared in 2Q12.

Hunza Properties : Dividend Galore! (Kenanga)

Hunza Properties
Price: RM2.01
Target Price: RM2.09
Dividend Galore!

Actual vs. Expectations
FY13 core earnings of RM19.8m met market expectations but exceeded ours as it was ahead of both consensus and our estimates by 3% and 12%, respectively.

Dividends
Declared special interim share dividend based on 25 treasury shares for 1000 existing shares. Based on the last traded share price, this translates to 5.03 sen/share. On top of that, the group is also proposing a final single-tier dividend of 5.60 sen. Hence, implied entitlements for FY13 are 10.63 sen (5.2% yield).

Padini :Attractive Dividend Yields (MKE)

Padini Holdings
Hold (from Sell)
Share price: MYR1.66
Target price: MYR1.75 (unchanged)
Attractive Dividend Yields

FY6/13 better than expected. Padini’s 4QFY6/13 net profit of MYR16m was above our expectation but in line with consensus. FY6/13 full-year net profit of MYR85m (-10% YoY) came in at 106% of our fullyear forecast. The primary concern at this stage is the weakness in consumer spending, hence we maintain our FY6/14-15 earnings forecasts. Nevertheless, Padini’s share price is supported by its net dividend yields of 6% p.a.. We upgrade Padini to HOLD with an unchanged TP of MYR1.75, pegged to 12x FY6/14 PER.

Parkson : FY13 Below Expectations (Kenanga)

Parkson Holdings
Price: RM3.30
Target Price: RM3.36
FY13 Below Expectations

Actual vs. Expectations
The FY13 net profit of RM240.4m (-37% YoY) came in below expectations, which only accounting for 80% and 83% of our and consensus full-year net profit forecasts. The variance from our forecast was due to lower-than-expected same-store-sales growth ("SSSG") in China.

Dividends
No dividend was declared during the quarter.

颜子伟: 新兴市场大跌;退市还未开始便出现紧张?

新兴市场大跌;退市还未开始便出现紧张?
文: 颜子伟 (译:麦美莹) 2013年08月30日 展望
对于某些地区的投资者来说,他们的心情肯定好像世界末日,因为新兴经济体的股市大幅下滑,部分更坠入熊市中。

什么叫新兴市场?哪些国家是属于新兴市场?

踏入新的千禧年,有一组国家包括巴西、俄罗斯、印度及中国(BRIC),成为了投资者的追捧对象,因为它们的经济属于高增长型。我们现在知道中国已登上了世界经济的第二把交椅,而组内余下国家的经济实力也不容忽视。

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曾渊沧博士-股市资讯专栏 30.08.13

曾渊沧博士专栏
文: 曾渊沧博士 2013年08月30日 曾渊沧博士专栏
突然间,整个东南亚股市出现了一股担心一九九七年亚洲金融风暴重临的恐慌。香港恒生指数一度在三天之内急跌1,000点才暂时站稳。新加坡海峡时报指数也跌100点,论跌幅比香港小,但是香港急跌1,000点后出现强力反弹,新加坡的反弹力较差。8月20日,出现第一天的暴跌;8月21日再跌;8月22日香港则先跌后回升。到了8月23日,香港恒生指数全天的走势就完全跟着中国股市走。换言之,中国因素又再成了影响香港股市的最重要力量。后市如何意见纷纷。

既然股市出现一九九七年的亚洲金融风暴的恐慌,亚洲金融风暴距今已经十六年,股龄较低的投资者也许不知道当年的情况。因此,今天我就写一些有关当年的惨况分析,同时以今日的情况与当年比较一下,让大家参考,温故知新,从历史中吸收教训。

QE如退場 新興市場將受極大考驗?



2013-08-24《老謝看世界》專訪經濟學家 馬凱、中華經濟研究院研究員 吳惠林



Warren E. Buffett(沃伦•巴菲特)
Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful
别人贪婪时我恐惧, 别人恐惧时我贪婪
投资只需学好两门课: 一,是如何给企业估值,二,是如何看待股市波动
吉姆·罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)
“错过时机”胜于“搞错对象”:不会全军覆没!”
做自己熟悉的事,等到发现大好机会才投钱下去

乔治·索罗斯(George Soros)

“犯错误并没有什么好羞耻的,只有知错不改才是耻辱。”

如果操作过量,即使对市场判断正确,仍会一败涂地。

李驰(中国巴菲特)
高估期间, 卖对, 不卖也对, 买是错的。
低估期间, 买对, 不买也是对, 卖是错的。

Tan Teng Boo


There’s no such thing as defensive stocks.Every stock can be defensive depending on what price you pay for it and what value you get,
冷眼(冯时能)投资概念
“买股票就是买公司的股份,买股份就是与陌生人合股做生意”。
合股做生意,则公司股份的业绩高于一切,而股票的价值决定于盈利。
价值是本,价格是末,故公司比股市重要百倍。
曹仁超-香港股神/港股明灯
1.有智慧,不如趁势
2.止损不止盈
成功者所以成功,是因为不怕失败!失败者所以失败,是失败后不再尝试!
曾淵滄-散户明灯
每逢灾难就是机会,而是在灾难发生时贱价买股票,然后放在一边,耐性地等灾难结束
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