Saturday, August 31, 2013

外匯存底高且經常帳赤字國,鱷魚最愛?



原料价疲软但售价看跌 速柏玛前景看法分歧

原料价疲软但售价看跌 速柏玛前景看法分歧
Created 08/31/2013 - 11:37
(吉隆坡30日讯)对于速柏玛(SUPERMX,7106,主板工业产品股)前景,分析员的看法分歧,有人看好原料价格疲软、产能提高及自动化营运可加强其净利表现;不过,也有人担心胶价走跌,公司无法维持目前的平均销售价。

随着胶价下跌,及加强自动化运作,速柏玛2013财年次季净赚3548万4000令吉,按年上扬18.3%;首半年则净赚6788万3000令吉,较上财年同期高出17.1%,普遍符合投行预测。

兴业研究表示,速柏玛首半年核心净利在他们的预期之内,分别占他们及市场全年预测的49%及49.6%。

Analysts say Malaysia economy is resilient and will be able to weather turmoil in Asia

Analysts say Malaysia economy is resilient and will be able to weather turmoil in Asia

BY TEE LIN SAY
LINSAY@THESTAR.COM.MY

THE rout in the stock markets is one that Asia has not seen for the past 12 years. Capital markets in emerging Asia appear to have the rug pulled from under their feet for a variety of reasons; some of which are out of their control while others are attributed to their own doing.

Capital markets in India, Indonesia and Malaysia have all experienced turbulence not seen for some time.

Smelters Split As New Tin Trading Rules Begin In Indonesia

Smelters Split As New Tin Trading Rules Begin In Indonesia

JAKARTA: Tin producers in Indonesia, the world's top exporter of the refined metal, are split over new rules forcing them to trade on a domestic exchange, threatening government plans to boost the nation's profile in commodities markets.

The Southeast Asian nation has introduced a raft of new measures to boost industrial activity and export higher value processed goods, rather than raw materials, across a range of commodities.

Under new rules that took effect on Friday, all 47 registered tin ingot exporters must now trade on a domestic exchange before shipping material, as part of plan for Indonesia to set its own price benchmarks for the solder material.

Agricultural Bank of China : Boringly solid 2Q13 results (CIMB)

Agricultural Bank of China
Current HK$3.29
Target HK$4.14
Boringly solid 2Q13 results

 The 2Q13 results were boringly solid. The only real negative is that qoq revenue progression is becoming more difficult, which in turn is weighing on sequential earnings growth.

2Q13 net profit of Rmb45.3bn (+22.4% yoy / -3.6% qoq) was 6.1% better than forecast and 8.0% better than consensus on lower credit cost. 1H13 results represent 53% of our full-year forecast. We cut our FY13-15 EPS estimates by 3.5%-3.6% (driven by a NIM cut, as 2Q13 NIM was weaker than expected). We reiterate our Outperform rating and HK$4.14 GGM-derived target price (1.18x P/BV). Catalysts include improving macro data and better asset quality.

Bank of China 2Q13: Continued strong interest income (CIMB)

Bank of China
Current HK$3.28
Target HK$3.22
2Q13: Continued strong interest income

 BOC beat our forecast solidly on the back of a remarkably-strong net interest income. Asset quality indicators were somewhat mixed, but overall we think that the bank has delivered a solid quarter.

2Q13 net profit of Rmb40.9bn (+17.5% yoy / +2.7% qoq) was 6.7% above our and 7% above consensus estimates driven by stronger-than-expected interest income and lower-than-expected loan impairment charges. 1H13 results represent 58% of our full-year forecast. We raise our FY13 EPS by 4.1% for higher NIM assumptions. We reiterate our HK$3.22 GGM-derived target price and Neutral rating.

ICBC 2Q13: Steady on all fronts (CIMB)

ICBC
Current HK$5.06
Target HK$6.38
2Q13: Steady on all fronts

 Steady is the best way to describe ICBCs 2Q13 results. Modest revenue progression and control on expenses and asset quality are likely to remain features of the bank’s growth for the next few quarters. The only remarkable point was a sharp decline in interbank assets. We reiterate ICBC as one of our top picks.

2Q13 net profit of Rmb69.6bn (+12.6% yoy / +1.3% qoq) was 6.8% ahead of our estimate and 5.4% ahead of consensus. The beat was driven by revenues slightly higher and expenses slightly lower than expected. We raise our FY13 EPS by 2.3% (higher revenues). We reiterate our HK$6.38 GGM-derived target price (1.37x PB) and Outperform rating. Catalysts include continued positive surprises on earnings and asset quality.

Ann Joo : Negative externalities (CIMB)

Ann Joo Resources
Current RM1.18
Target RM1.33
Negative externalities

 A slump in export numbers and inventory writedowns dragged 1H13 performance. At 94% of our full-year forecast on an annualised basis, the results were in line as 2H should improve. A slight recovery in steel rod prices is positive but regional macro concerns present risks.

We cut our target price as we apply a lower CY14 target P/E of 10.9x (12.5x before), the lower end of its 3-year historical average and a higher 30% discount (20% prev.) to our target market P/E of 15.6x in view of rising macro concerns. Dumping issues could persist in 2H while global concerns may continue to curtail export numbers. Cost efficiency should support a slight recovery in 2H earnings. Maintain Neutral.

Mudajaya : Delays don’t dim prospects (CIMB)

Mudajaya
Current RM2.59
Target RM3.02
Delays don’t dim prospects

 Mudajaya's annualised 1H13 core net profit made up 84% of our and 99% of consensus full-year forecasts. Although 2H will be stronger, the results were below our expectations due to progress billing delays. Still, a recovery in earnings and prospects should follow the FY13 slump.

We cut our FY13-15 EPS to reflect job delays and lower IPP associate earnings due to the weakening rupee. The lower target price is still based on a 40% discount to a revised RNAV. Job outlook in the domestic power plant space remains positive and underpins job wins in 2H. Maintain Outperform, with added catalysts from the FSA for its Indian IPP, likely in 4Q13. Share price weakness is a buying opportunity.

Sunway : Earnings On Track (MKE)

Sunway
Buy (unchanged)
Share price: MYR2.75
Target price: MYR3.47 (unchanged)
Earnings On Track

Maintain BUY. Sunway’s 1H13 results were within expectations. 1H13 locked-in property sales of MYR492m are on track to meet its 2013 sales target. Given strong property product launches in the pipeline (≈MYR1.5b new launches in 2H13), Sunway could exceed its internal sales target of MYR1.1b for 2013 (2012: MYR1.6b). No change to our earnings forecasts and MYR3.47 TP (on 20% discount to RNAV).

Press Metal : Look Beyond The Brief Hiccups (RHB)

Press Metal
Target Price: MYR2.77
Price: MYR2.11
Look Beyond The Brief Hiccups

Press Metal’s smelters were hit harder than expected by the June power outage in Sarawak, while further softening of aluminium prices since we initiated coverage has undermined our recommendation. However, the aluminium price is showing signs of bottoming out and we expect its smelter repairs to be expedited. It is still a BUY, albeit with a lower FV of MYR2.77, implying 30% discount to our fully-diluted conservative DCF.

Eversendai : 1HFY13 Weighed Down By Slow Profit Recognition (RHB)

Eversendai
Target Price: MYR2.09
Price: MYR1.44
1HFY13 Weighed Down By Slow Profit Recognition

Press Metal’s smelters were hit harder than expected by the June power outage in Sarawak, while further softening of aluminium prices since we initiated coverage has undermined our recommendation. However, the aluminium price is showing signs of bottoming out and we expect its smelter repairs to be expedited. It is still a BUY, albeit with a lower FV of MYR2.77, implying 30% discount to our fully-diluted conservative DCF.

KNM Group: Above Expectations (MEK)

KNM Group
Hold (from Sell)
Share price: MYR0.395
Target price: MYR0.40 (from MYR0.23)
Above Expectations; Upgrade to HOLD

 TP raised to MYR0.40. 1H13 results were above our expectations at 67%/136% of our full-year pre-tax/core net profit estimates, compelling us to raise our 2013/14 earnings forecasts by 192%/39%. We also raise our TP 74% on a higher 2014 PER of 10x (8x previously) as most of the negatives are priced in, we believe. While order book replenishment and margin visibility remain low, the stock’s downside risk is limited following a 32% fall in the share price since our downgrade in August. We thus upgrade the stock to HOLD from SELL.

Ann Joo : Expect Better 2H (MKE)

Ann Joo Resources
Buy (unchanged)
Share price: MYR1.18
Target price: MYR2.10 (unchanged)
Expect Better 2H

 Within expectations. 2Q13 core net profit of MYR10m (+29% QoQ) brought 1H13 core net profit to MYR18m, making up 39% of our full-year forecast and 41% of street’s. Headline 2Q13 net profit was lower at MYR2m (1Q13: MYR10m) due to MYR8m unrealised forex loss. We see stronger sequential earnings, underpinned by strong local demand and improving international ASPs. We maintain our earnings forecasts, BUY rating and TP of MYR2.10 (1x P/BV). Share price downside is also limited given that it is trading at -1SD to its mean P/BV of 0.8x.

Oldtown :Opportunity To Accumulate (MKE)

Oldtown Berhad
Buy (unchanged)
Share price: MYR2.36
Target price: MYR3.55 (unchanged)
Opportunity To Accumulate

Results within expectations, BUY. Oldtown’s 1QFY3/14 results were within expectations with recurring net profit of MYR12.2m (+3% YoY; +4% QoQ) coming in at 22% of our and consensus full-year forecasts. Prospects for Oldtown remain intact and the recent selldown presents a good opportunity to accumulate the stock. We maintain our earnings forecasts, BUY call and TP of MYR3.55 (21x CY14 PER).

Coastal Contract : No Major Surprises (RHB)

Coastal Contract
Target Price: MYR3.00
Price: MYR2.75
No Major Surprises

COCO’s 1H13 net profit of MYR63.1m was in line with our but slightly below consensus full-year estimates. Despite lower 1H13 revenue, its overall profitability improved due to higher margins from its shipbuilding business. Maintain BUY, as we believe COCO stands a good chance of securing its maiden jack-up rig contract, which will prompt a higher valuation. We retain our FV at MYR3.00.

• In line. COCO’s 1H13 net profit of MYR63.1m (+3.0% q-o-q, +5.8% y-o-y) was in line with our but slightly below consensus forecasts, accounting for 49.3% of our and 46.8% of consensus full-year estimates. Despite lower 1H13 revenue (-15.3% q-o-q, -20.7% y-o-y), overall profitability improved due to better margins from its shipbuilding division.

Gabriel Gan: Emerging Markets Take A Tumble; The Tightening Starts Before It Even Begins

30 AUGUST 2013
Emerging Markets Take A Tumble; The Tightening Starts Before It Even Begins
By Gabriel Gan

It sure looked like the end of the world for investors in certain parts of the world as stock markets in emerging economies took a huge beating with some of these indices falling into bear market territory.

What are the emerging markets and who are they?

At the start of the new millennium, a group of countries – Brazil, Russia, India and China – became the investors’ darling due to the high-growth nature of their economies. We now know that China has catapulted itself into the world’s number two economy in the world although we cannot ignore the economic might of the rest when combined.

Dr Chan Yan Chong’s Column 30.08.2013

30 AUGUST 2013
Dr Chan Yan Chong’s Column
By Dr Chan Yan Chong

Southeast Asian markets took a dive that reminded investors of the 1997 Asian financial crisis, while Hong Kong also plunged 1,000 points in merely three trading days. Although the Straits Times Index (STI) fell 100 points, it was nothing compared to the magnitude of the Hang Seng Index’s (HSI) fall.  When Hong Kong staged a strong rebound, the rebound in the STI was much smaller.

The HSI fell from 21 August to 23 August but rebounded sharply on the third day, mirroring the fine performance of the Shanghai Composite Index (SSE). The HSI had once again tracked back the performance of the Chinese bourses but nobody knows what will happen next.

Friday, August 30, 2013

《股市资讯》2013投资研讨峰会:曾渊沧博士对环球经济的高见

《股市资讯》2013投资研讨峰会:曾渊沧博士对环球经济的高见
文: 陈挚文 (译:杨佳文) 2013年08月30日 展望
全球投资者都在期待美国联邦储备局将在9月份召开的会议,原因是联储局可能会在这次的会议上决定开始缩减其量化宽松政策(QE)的规模,令这几年来市场上充斥资金的情况有所改变。美国开始减少购买资产,将会对全球经济带来怎样的影响?《股市资讯》通过电话与曾渊沧博士进行了专访,从而了解他对美国“退市”及全球经济状况的看法。

《股市资讯》:在联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)发布7月份的会议记录之后,市场人士预计联储局将在9月份召开的会议上决定减少其购买的债券。您认为会减多少?美国减少买债会不会影响美国2014年的经济增长?

罗杰斯:叙利亚战争与市场恐慌会让黄金涨得“很高、很高”

“量子基金”前合伙人、知名投资者罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)警告,叙利亚相关的“市场恐慌”和即将到来的“自由资金之死”会导致石油与黄金涨得“很高、很高”。

以下是罗杰斯接受路透记者采访的主要内容:

匯華推14億房產計劃

匯華推14億房產計劃
Created 08/30/2013 - 17:13
(檳城30日訊)匯華產業(HUNZPTY,5018,主板產業組)未來4年,除了繼續向房地產發展,推出發展價值14億令吉的房地產計劃,也策劃進軍服務業,包括酒店、霸級市場及休閒中心。

該公司執行主席拿督許廷忠在新聞發佈會宣佈,截至今年度6月30日財政年度業績報告時透露在葛尼百麗宮購物廣場(Gurney Paragon)正式營業後,該集團成為置業大戶,自置直營葛尼百麗宮購物廣場後,對投資產業之價值重估的稅前盈利為1億7千690萬令吉,董事部議決派發特別中期股息回饋公司股東,即每千普通股,配置25特別股額,及財政年派發5.6仙終期股息。

市场点名隆新高铁 检讨大工程建业恐遭殃

市场点名隆新高铁 检讨大工程建业恐遭殃
Created 08/30/2013 - 09:00
(吉隆坡29日讯)政府拟重新检视部分抑制政府财务的大型计划,市场点名其中或包括捷运计划(MRT)新路线和隆新高铁(HSR),意味着建筑领域是首当其冲,但财政部秘书长丹斯里依万瑟里加今日已表示捷运不在检讨范围内。

第二财长拿督斯里阿末胡斯尼早前表示,那些大幅影响政府财务大型计划将被重新检视和编排,以免过度压迫政府预算。

阿末胡斯尼也提到,政府将优先推行进口量较少和高倍数效应的公共计划,以兼顾国家经济增长。

開放利率累工行息差縮

開放利率累工行息差縮
內銀競爭加劇 中行料再縮難免
2013年8月30日
【明報專訊】隨工行(1398)和中行(3988)中期業績的揭曉,九大內銀悉數亮出成績單,內地利率市場化進程加速,對內銀盈利能力的削弱顯而易見,就連全球最大銀行工行亦難避免,上半年淨利息收益率按年收窄9點子;與此同時,內地經濟放緩,而中央仍力促經濟結構調整,內銀資產質量雪上加霜,9行上半年壞帳全線升。標準普爾預期,內銀整體壞帳率年內恐由去年的1.6%升至2.5%的平均水平,明年平均盈利增長將跌至單位數。

工行截至今年6月底的淨利息收入2159億,按年僅升5.8%,但手續費及佣金收入按年大漲23%至674億元,加之嚴控成本,方推動半年純利按年升12.4%至1385億元,符合預期。然而,有「內銀巨無霸」之稱的工行,未能避免利率市場化的衝擊,上半年淨利息收益率(NIM)較去年同期和去年全年均收窄9個基點至2.57%,貸款收益率下降48基點,存款付息率下降4基點。

暫緩國家財務壓力 重整大工程落實時間

(吉隆坡29日訊)國家經常賬項大幅下滑,為免財政承受太大壓力,政府將重整大型工程落實時間,並優先落實高乘數效應及低進口的工程。

 但捷運工程及私人計劃不受影響,首相將在下週一(9月2日)發文告宣布重整工程減補貼詳情。

 首相署部長兼表現管理及傳遞單位總執行長拿督斯里依德利斯透露,對此政府確實已鑑定數工程,不過不會腰斬或一次過展延所有項目,免對經濟及市場引起負面的反射效應。

 他今日出席經濟轉型執行方案上半年匯報會后指出,這是解決財務壓力的其中一個方法,具有高乘數效應且進口額較低的工程優先落實,效應不高且進口原料多的工程則將放慢落實腳步,但由私人界領跑的計劃不受影響。

Dry Bulk Shipping : Buy before the likely 4Q bounce (CS)

Dry Bulk Shipping
Maintain OVERWEIGHT
New report: Buy before the likely 4Q bounce

● As iron ore imports continue to displace higher-priced domestic PRC production we see a sustained bid for capesize tonnage coinciding with the passing of summer's slow season.

● China's steel production looks set to exceed our expectations and the feedstock for its mills is increasingly being sourced abroad, driving up capesize rates. A 4Q13 rebound in grain exports from the US should also buoy rates among the smaller classes of vessels. Click here for full report.

Silverlake Axis: Attractive Yield With Strong Growth Potential (OSK)

Silverlake Axis: Attractive Yield With Strong Growth Potential
 (BUY, SGD0.72, TP: SGD0.89)

Coming away from our meeting with Management, we see a 16% net profit CAGR for the next two years, with upside potential should SILV’s orderbook replenishment beat expectations. As the counter offers an attractive FY14 dividend yield of 4.7%, we reiterate our BUY call, with a higher SGD0.89 TP (from SGD0.82), based on DCF valuation (WACC: 10.0%, terminal growth rate: 5.0%).

Olam International: Hit by higher tax (DBSV)

Olam International:
HOLD  S$1.46;
Hit by higher tax;

Price Target : 12-Month S$ 1.60  (Prev S$ 1.80)
•FY13 net profit missed our below consensus estimate due to higher tax rate
•Outlook remains challenging with weak commodity prices and macro uncertainties
•Focus is on execution of its “rebalancing strategy”
•Maintain HOLD with a lower TP of S$1.60

FY13 results below.  Olam’s FYJune13 core profit missed our/consensus estimates by 19%/23% as taxes were much higher than expected. Excluding the one-off S$12.8m tax on sale of assets, the effective tax rate of 19.1% was also higher than guidance of 12-15%, which management attributes to tax adjustment for underprovided tax in the first few quarters and higher earnings from high tax jurisdiction countries in 4Q. Excluding biological gains of S$96.3m and exceptionals of S$10.3m, net profit was flat y-o-y at S$256m despite 22% growth in revenue. On a positive note, net gearing drifted to below 2x at 1.93x as of end-June. Olam declared a final DPS of 4 Scts.

ETP Update: Spotlight On Basic Fundamentals (MKE)

ETP Update
Spotlight On Basic Fundamentals

Addressing the issues. The highlight of yesterday’s PEMANDU briefing was the Q&A session, which centered on the issue of Malaysia’s deteriorating macroeconomic balance i.e. narrowing current account surplus and persistent fiscal deficit. The Government reiterated its fiscal balance targets, the imminent imposition of the Goods and Services Tax, and the resumption of subsidy rationalisation and subsidy restructuring to a more “targeted approach”. A review on the pending mega-projects are also on the card, guided by the principle that any changes should not be at the expense of growth, and priority will be given to projects with high economic impact and low import-content.

Ascendas Real Estate Investment Trust: Business as usual; operationally stable (Macq)

Ascendas Real Estate Investment Trust
Price (at 06:08, 28 Aug 2013 GMT) S$2.17
Valuation S$ 2.60
Business as usual; operationally stable

Ascendas REIT presented at Day One of our Asean Conference in Singapore.

Impact
Cap rates are unlikely to rise post the increase in bond yields, according to management and indications from valuers. While interest rates play a role in determining cap rates, rent roll and achieved NPI are still the biggest components. Further, AREIT’s portfolio cap rates have been largely unchanged over the past 5 years, i.e. 6.8% during 2009 GFC, vs. 6.5% pre- GFC and existing 6.6%.

Keppel REIT: Best Grade A office play (Macq)

Keppel REIT
Price (at 06:08, 28 Aug 2013 GMT) S$1.19
Valuation S$ 1.53
Best Grade A office play

Keppel REIT presented at Day Two of our Asean Conference in Singapore.

Impact
Singapore portfolio update. Keppel REIT sees broad-based demand in the office sector. Ocean Financial Centre (OFC) saw its occupancy rate increased further from 96.6% to 97.9% (with just half of the fifth floor left to lease). Major tenants at OFC will see rent reviews in 2015 (BNP) and ANZ (2016). As these leases were signed at low rates during the GFC, Keppel REIT expects positive rent uplift post review. Singapore portfolio occupancy rate is at 99.2% and Singapore accounts for circa 90% of assets.

CapitaCommercial Trust: Office rent recovery given tight CBD supply (Macq)

CapitaCommercial Trust
Price (at 08:55, 27 Aug 2013 GMT) S$1.36
Valuation S$ 1.85
Office rent recovery given tight CBD supply

CapitaCommercial Trust presented at Day One of our Asean conference in Singapore.

Impact
Vacancy of less than 5%. CBRE’s 2Q13 Grade A portfolio occupancy rate reached 95.1%. This, together with limited supply of new office space in the CBD, suggests rent recovery in 2H13 and into 2014. CCT’s portfolio occupancy rate is a shade higher at 95.8%. The group has seen demand from small and medium-size users in the past six months and has rent reversions in its Grade A buildings at S$9.93 per sq ft, higher than the market average (CBRE) of S$9.55 per sq ft. On a portfolio basis, its average passing rents have seen four consecutive quarters of improvement.

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: Operationally solid (Macq)

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT
Price (at 09:04, 27 Aug 2013 GMT) S$1.39
Valuation S$ 1.95
Operationally solid

AIMS AMP Capital REIT presented at Day One of our Asean conference in Singapore.

Impact
Strong rent reversions. AAREIT achieved average rent growth of 15% in FY13 (81 leases and 33% of portfolio) and a further 14.2% of rent reversions in 1Q FY14 (31 leases and 5.6% of portfolio).

DPU growth from redevelopment projects. Over the next 18 months, AAREIT expects completion of phase 2E of the Gul Way and Defu Lane projects in May/June 2014 and phase 3 of Gul Way in Dec 2014. These projects will drive its DPU growth post the current fiscal year. These projects are also substantially leased, which ensures income stability and predictability.

CapitaMall Trust :Resilience shines through (Macq)

CapitaMall Trust
Price (at 08:55, 27 Aug 2013 GMT) S$1.90
Valuation S$ 2.46
Resilience shines through

CapitaMall Trust presented at Day One of our Asean conference in Singapore.

Impact
Rent growth of 6.4% in 1H13. Management expected some slowdown in rent reversions but was pleasantly surprised by achieving 6.4% reversions in 1H13. Shopper traffic +4.8% whilst tenant sales +3.3%. Whilst the portfolio is 99.1% occupied, it also means there is little retail space left to meet demands of new to market retailers. There are macro headwinds to contend with going forward, like slower population growth, control of foreign workers and difficulty in getting staff from the tenants’ perspective.

曾淵滄專欄 30.08.13:美軍最多小懲敍國

當年美國總統布殊打阿富汗、打伊拉克,至今泥足深陷,每年死了好些美軍,卻沒有辦法真正控制這兩個國家;敍利亞不是石油國家,目前的巴沙爾政權也不是回教恐怖分子。相反的,反對他的人中,極端回教恐怖主義者還真不少,我真懷疑奧巴馬有多大的誘因,在敍利亞打仗。

敍利亞亂局已出現了一年以上,真要打,去年就打了,去年美國推翻了利比亞的卡達菲,換來的是美國大使在利比亞被殺,是新政權成立後被殺。美軍雖沒有攻打埃及,但人人知道前總統穆巴拉克,是被美國推翻的,結果也一樣不討好。

CapitaRetail China Trust :Strong operations hurt by macro concerns (macq)

CapitaRetail China Trust
Price (at 09:04, 27 Aug 2013 GMT) S$1.37
Valuation S$ 1.61
Strong operations hurt by macro concerns

CapitaRetail China Trust presented at Day One of our Asean conference in Singapore.

Impact
Positive rent reversions. Despite a slowdown in the Chinese economy, CRCT managed to secure 17.3% rent reversions in 2Q13 and about 14.9% p.a. over the past three years. About 59% of its gross rentable area and 78% of revenue are from its malls in Tier 1 cities, which are not as oversupplied as in Tier 2 or Tier 3 cities.

Singapore dollar: the next currency to fall?

Singapore dollar: the next currency to fall?
Published: Wednesday, 28 Aug 2013

Even the Singapore dollar, underpinned by a robust economy, has failed to escape the pressure facing its regional peers.

The currency has fallen more than 2 percent against the U.S. dollar from a two-month high hit just over two weeks ago, raising the question of whether it may play catch up with neighboring emerging-market currencies that have been caught in a brutal sell-off.

First REIT : No rupiah exposure, rents paid in (macq)

First REIT
Price (at 09:04, 27 Aug 2013 GMT) S$1.05
Valuation S$ 1.30
No rupiah exposure, rents paid in SGD

First REIT presented at Day Two of our Asean conference in Singapore.

Impact
Indonesian hospital assets but rents in SGD. First REIT’s Indonesian assets are on long term master leases with rents paid in SGD. Apart from fixed base rents, there are annual rental escalations capped at 2% per annum and a variable rent based on increase in revenue at the hospitals. Base rent and annual escalations account for 99% of total revenue. The only forex exposure is the USD payments from its sole hospital in South Korea, which accounts for 1% of total revenue.

中行不良貸款獨雙升

【質素下跌】

工行(1398)及中行(3988)昨齊公佈中期業績,兩行純利分別增長12.33%及12.92%,至1,383.47億元(人民幣.下同)及807.21億元,略勝預期,不派中期息。各界關注的資產質素,兩大行均受內地經濟結構調整拖累,資產質素有所下跌。

工行次季不良貸款額大減
截至6月底止,中行的不良貸款按季錄得雙升,工行不良貸款餘額雖然上升,但不良貸款率維持0.87%水平。

工行董事長姜建清更指,第二季度的新增不良貸款為15億元,較首季度的57億元大幅收窄。

內銀中期業績大比拼 中工農三行 資本充足率跌

【本報訊】四大內銀先後放榜,上半年盈利增長介乎12至15%略勝預測,但在巴三新資本協定啟動下,銀行資本實力強弱才是關鍵。證券界認為,年內四大行皆沒有發行新股集資壓力,巴三內評法(IRB)模式若獲准使用,核心一級資本充足率更會提升,惟銀行應會考慮優先股、混合債及資產證券化等,充實一級及總體資本率水平,當中尤以農行(1288)較大需要。記者:劉美儀 董曉沂 關穎欣

6月底中行(3988)核心一級資本充足率,較首季末降0.25個百分點至9.27%,四行中僅優於水平最低(9.11%)的農行(1288)。

Thursday, August 29, 2013

鹏达放眼贸易製造比重50对50

鹏达放眼贸易製造比重50对50

(吉隆坡29日讯)鹏达集团(PANTECH,5125,主板贸服股)锁定目標在2015年將贸易与製造业务营业额比重达至50对50。此外,该公司也对收购活动保持开放態度。

该公司2013財政年(2月结账)的贸易营业额为3亿8474万令吉,占总营业额的60.5%;製造业营业额则为2亿5092万令吉,占总营业额的39.5%。而当中40%的营业额来自海外市场,60%则为国內市场。

目前鹏达集团的巴生工厂每年生產1万8500公吨的碳钢接头,巴西古当(PasirGudang)工厂產能占每年1万4400公吨不銹钢管材和管件產量的83%。此外,其Nautic的產量为每年600公吨。

不会重探风暴水平 马股1541点有扶持

(吉隆坡29日讯)在国內外不明朗因素夹攻之下,外资大举撤离,导致马股跟隨区域股市在近日连栽跟斗,马股回吐了全国大选后的涨幅,年初至今的涨幅只剩下0.88%。眼见美国即將缩减购债规模,以及大马面临疲弱的宏观数据(经常帐与財政盈余),投资者目前最关心的莫过于马股还有多大的下跌空间。

对此,马银行金英研究分析员指出,按2014年盈利预测计算,马股的本益比从15.3倍高水平,跌至目前的14.3倍;並预测马股能够在13倍的本益比获得扶持,不会重返全球金融风暴期间的11倍。

「以2014年盈利预测计算,马股目前的本益比是14.2倍,而马股过往在13倍本益比都寻获扶持,除了全球金融风暴期间,跌至11.2倍。」

依德利斯:馬幣貶值‧大型工程或放緩

依德利斯:馬幣貶值‧大型工程或放緩
Created 08/29/2013 - 16:38
(吉隆坡29日訊)隨著國行調降全年經濟成長預測,和馬幣對外匯率節節敗退,首相署部長拿督斯里依德利斯不排除政府將重新調整各項計劃,包括放緩那些低效能、高進口成份工程的速度。

無論如何,他沒有表明哪些大型工程將受到影響,指政府還在鑑定相關工程,也不會波及私人投資工程。

較早前,財政部秘書長依瓦蘭已表明,牽涉廣泛的大吉隆坡捷運工程計劃不會受到影響,第一階段施工如期進行。

百盛控股 业绩触底将回弹

百盛控股 业绩触底将回弹
Created 08/29/2013 - 12:40
目标价:4.17令吉

最新进展

尽管中国销售疲软,百盛控股(PARKSON,5657,主板贸服股)业绩依然扬升,年初至8月份营业额,按年递增2%至53亿170万令吉。

纵观该公司在各国的业绩表现,以印尼的同店销售增长率(SSSG)最佳,按年增幅达5.6%;大马则报4.5%。

行家建议

虽然业绩表现略微走滑,但相信百盛控股表现已触底,近期在多重利好带动下料将回弹。

OCK Group Re-enter At Lower Levels

OCK Group Re-enter At Lower Levels
Price Target:0.67
Last Price:0.625

INVESTMENT MERIT

- LTAT’s entry could provide various synergistic benefits. The recent entry of LTAT via a 15% stake in OCK could provide several synergistic benefits to the latter, such as: (i) To comply with Bursa Malaysia’s 12.5% Bumiputera shareholding requirement (should the group managed to transfer to the Main Board in the later stage), (ii) further enriching its corporate profile; and (iii) providing better opportunity for OCK to participate in the telecom-related projects under LTAT’s portfolio in the future.

Market Selldown Reassessing Fundamentals (MKE)

Market Selldown
Reassessing Fundamentals
Current KLCI: 1,686 (28 Aug 2013)
YE KLCI target: 1,840 (under review)

How much more? The KLCI is down 0.2% YTD (-8.4% in USD terms) after falling 124 points or 6.8% from a high of 1,810 on 24 July, a victim of broad-based selling as foreign investors exit the region and emerging markets. The KLCI now trades at 14.3x 2014 earnings, having shaved a 1.0 multiple from its high at 15.3x. The question now is how much more downside, as the US looks set to cool down its liquidity party and Malaysia’s weakened macroeconomic balance (current account + fiscal balance) come at a time when risk appetite for this region is waning. Domestic fiscal reforms will reinstill confidence. We take the view that this will be acted upon in the 2014 National Budget, and possibly as early as next week following the Fiscal Policy Committee meeting.

RETAIL S-REITS : OUTLOOK REMAINS SANGUINE (OCBC)

OUTLOOK REMAINS SANGUINE
.• 2Q13 results in line with expectations
• Active capital management to limit risks
• Starhill Global REIT remains our top pick

Robust 2Q13 performance as expected
Local retail landlords ended 2Q13 on a positive note, with the majority benefitting from higher secured rents and occupancy rates following the completion of asset enhancement initiatives (AEIs) at several of their portfolio assets. On the whole, the subsector turned in a 14.6% YoY growth in aggregate NPI and 9.6% YoY growth in DPU. The results were mostly in line with our expectations, except for CapitaMall Trust (CMT) which exceeded our forecasts on strongerthan- expected rental reversions.

Fraser & Neave : Business as usual, for now (CIMB)

Fraser & Neave
Current S$5.49
Target S$6.61
Business as usual, for now

 As expected, management gave little away during the briefing on when and by how much its free float will be restored. Synergies with its Thai shareholders in F&B and property were discussed. These drew some positive guidance. But beyond that, it’s business as usual, for now.

We expect more corporate actions to form the share price catalysts. Meanwhile, we retain our Outperform call with unchanged target price of S$6.61 (still on 20% discount to property RNAV). We estimate the current share price of FNN implies a 34% discount to RNAV for FCL (in line with the sector average),backed by S$3.3bn of unbooked presales and a low proform a net gearing of 36%.

ASL Marine : Getting ambitious (CIMB)

ASL Marine  
Getting ambitious
OUTPERFORM - Maintained
| S$0.65 - TP: S$0.86
▊ ASL is getting more aggressive by embarking on four build-to-stock AHTS in its Batam and Chinese yards, in view of the bottomed-out vessel prices. This can be a game changer for its shipbuilding business. Vessel sales and strong orders can catalyse the stock. FY13 core profit was 10% below our forecast and consensus due to the higher tax rate of 18% (pre-tax loss from its subsidiary, Vosta). On a normalised tax rate (10%), the core profit would have met expectations. ASL declared a dividend of S$0.02. We cut our EPS by 4-8% for FY14-16 due to the higher taxes. We maintain our Outperform rating and target price (still based on 0.9x CY13 P/BV, its five-year mean).

農行資本逼警戒線 比率跌至9% 擬發優先股撲水

農行資本逼警戒線 比率跌至9% 擬發優先股撲水

【本報訊】繼建行(939)後另一四大行農行(1288)亦公佈中期業績,同樣面對淨息差壓力、內地經濟放緩及不良貸款餘額趨升,農行淨息差按季收窄幅度較建行顯著。不過,證券界關注農行核心一級及一級資本充足率,皆跌至接近9%邊緣。
記者:劉美儀 關穎欣

行長張雲昨重申「今年完全不需要發新股集資」,但會考慮發行優先股,充實一級資本比率。截至6月底,農行淨息差為2.74厘,按年收窄11點子(首季末為2.78厘)。該行副行長樓文龍解釋,息差收窄主要受去年減息後,貸款重新定價影響,次季貸款定價,普遍較首季收窄9點子,展望下半年息差收窄壓力仍存在。

Cordlife Group : Solid FY2013, Ready for a Better FY2014 (VR)

Cordlife Group
Invest
Solid FY2013, Ready for a Better FY2014
• Intrinsic Value S$1.40
• Prev Closing Price S$1.215

Cordlife Group Limited’s (Cordlife) FY13 performance was better than expected, with revenue and PAT of S$34.7m and S$13.5m vs estimates of S$31.1m and PAT of S$11.6m. The differences were mainly due to 1) S$3.4m interest income from non-current trade receivables which was reclassified as revenue, 2) one-off gains and losses from the disposal of associate, fair value gain from investment properties, professional fees and others and 3) stronger contribution from its associates.

Sunway : Expect Stronger Property Sales In 2H13 (MKE)

Sunway
Buy (unchanged)
Share price: MYR2.97
Target price: MYR3.47 (from MYR3.48)
Expect Stronger Property Sales In 2H13

Maintain BUY. Sunway’s 1H13 results, to be released on 29 Aug, will likely meet expectations. Given strong property product launches in the pipeline (≈MYR1.5b new launches in 2H13), Sunway could exceed its internal sales target of MYR1.1b for 2013 (2012: MYR1.6b). We adjust our FY13/14/15 earnings forecasts by -1%/-1%/+4% to reflect the removal of its China project from our forecasts and higher stakes in Sunway Velocity (SV) and Sunway Iskandar (SI). Our TP is largely intact at MYR3.47 on an unchanged 20% discount to MYR4.34 RNAV.

Silverlake Axis : Investment merits intact! (CIMB)

Silverlake Axis
Current S$0.75
Target S$0.86
Investment merits intact!

 Although FY13 sales were 7% below our forecast due to lower hardware sales,core EPS was in line (99%), as gross margins widened to 64%(previously 54.4%)The improvement was led by higher contributions from software licensing and recurrent maintenance revenue.

We cut FY14-15 EPS by 1% to factor in dilution from new shares placed out recently but maintain our DCF target price (WACC 7.8%) and Outperform rating. Catalysts are expected from new orders and a possible listing of its associate. We introduce FY16 forecasts.

曾淵滄專欄 29.08.13:淡友沽空見好要收

中石油(857)數名高層落馬,子公司昆侖能源(135)董事長李華林是其中一人,昨日兩股雙雙復牌,中石油股價跌4.4%,昆侖能源則大跌13.5%,成交額非常大,佔十大成交榜頭兩位。

報載被捕者是周永康系的人,周永康是中共政治局前任常委,出身石油部。因此可以說,在中石油的高層領導中,無人不是周永康系的人,有政治評論員指,這行動是在清洗周永康系的人。我認為是太牽強,抓了幾位高層領導後,派誰去替代他們?

Eversendai : Net profit eases (MIDF)

Eversendai Corporation Bhd
Maintain BUY
Price (27th Aug 2013) RM1.44
Target Price RM1.73
Net profit eases

1HFY13 net profit lagged expectations, accounting for only 30% and 29.5% of ours and market consensus full-year forecasts. This was due to a decrease in the Middle East’s revenue segment and other income contribution.
We are maintaining our forecasts and valuation, pending guidance from the management during a briefing to analysts next week.
We maintain BUY on the company with an unchanged target price of RM1.73 per share.

Parkson Holdings : “Below Expectation” (M&A)

Parkson Holdings
Current Price (RM)RM3.30
New Fair Value (RM) RM4.29
“Below Expectation”

 Results Review
• Actual vs. expectations. Parkson Holdings Berhad’s  (Parkson) topline of RM801 million was flat at 0.2% y-o- y, however on q-o-q basis it declined by 14.1%, which bring cumulative revenue to RM3.5 billion, accounting 90% of our full year forecast. Net profit of RM56.5 million in 4Q13 dropped by double digits or 59.6% y-o-y and 60.5% q-o-q. The weak 4Q13 net profit saw its full year net profit fell by 34.8% to RM436.2 million, accounting only 65% from our full year forecast.

農行中期多賺15% 壞帳續降

農行中期多賺15% 壞帳續降
民行純利增2成 均略勝預期
農業銀行(01288)及民生銀行(01988)昨公布上半年業績,表現均略超出市場預期。

農行半年純利923.5億元(人民幣,下同),增長14.7%。民行半年純利229.5億元,增長20.4%。

農行維持不派中期息,民行則每10股派1.58元。

市場一直認為,農行可受惠市鎮化,而民行則為內銀中民營的獨特例子。現時內地宏觀經濟環境有變,但觀乎兩行營運數據,似暫未令投資概念受損。

Wednesday, August 28, 2013

波动剧烈如过山车 马股跌势未引发恐慌

(吉隆坡28日讯)儘管马股周三经歷了如过山车般的剧烈波动,失守1700点扶持水平;惟,市场人士认为马股並没出现恐慌性拋售(panicselling),他们认为,马股將处于技术性调整的格局,直到9月17-18日美国召开联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)决策会议。

在外资持续大举撤退,加上美国或向敘利亚展开军事行动的忧虑,富时大马综指在早盘开市后不久,一度暴跌40.85点或2.4%,至1660.39点全天最低水平,惟较后逐步收窄跌幅,最后成功收復大部份失地,以1686.17点结束全天交易,挫15.07点或0.886%。

一度瀉40點‧馬股未見底

一度瀉40點‧馬股未見底
Created 08/28/2013 - 17:31
(吉隆坡28日訊)全球股市動盪情緒加劇,分析員認為,敘利亞危機僅引起市場短期驚慌情緒,但警告國內經濟走勢才是主導因素,特別是當前經濟基本面已無力扶持大市,意味著未來馬股的漲勢將受限。

分析員提到,從技術層面而言,馬股在跌破1700點關卡後已無重大支撐點,最壞情況下可能會回調至1500點,導致市場悲觀情緒蔓延。

马航 业绩步向正轨

马航 业绩步向正轨
Created 08/28/2013 - 12:39
目标价:34仙

最新进展

根据马航(MAS,3786,主板贸服股)在7月份的营运数据显示,今年首7个月的承载率(load factor)有76.5%,按年增长4.3%。

至于7月乘客承载率则达83.3%,主要是受国际乘客带动。值得注意的是,马航在过去10年只有5个月是取得超过80%的承载率。

行家建议

马航的营运数据持续获得正面成长,符合其扩大市占率及承载率以取得较高营业额及改善净利的策略。

令吉贬至3年新低拖累 汽车电力航运股看跌

令吉贬至3年新低拖累 汽车电力航运股看跌
Created 08/28/2013 - 09:06
(吉隆坡27日讯)东南亚外资撤离潮再升级,令吉兑美元今日贬至3年新低!

分析员更点名汽车、电力和航空运输与其他在成本与债务以美元为主的企业,将因令吉大贬值而“凄凄惨惨兮兮”。

大马经济展望近期频受打击,先是惠誉(Fitch)因我国财政问题将展望下调至“负面”,接着官方数据显示来往账项盈余大幅收窄70%,连带影响令吉走势节节下滑。

再者,联储局何时减少购债规模的疑问,始终是投资者心中的一根刺,促使包括大马在内的东协新兴市场,在近数月面临大规模的资金外逃窘境。

Parkson earnings down 63% in Q4

PETALING JAYA: Retailer Parkson Holdings Bhd recorded a net profit of RM30.16mil for the fourth quarter ended June 30, which is 63% lower than the RM81.70mil achieved a year ago, due to a seasonal lower performance in the absence of major festivities.

Revenue for the period under review was RM801.48mil, marginally higher than the RM799.56mil posted a year ago.

For the year, it achieved a revenue of RM3.5bil, 2.3% better than the RM3.42bil recorded in 2012.

The group told Bursa Malaysia that the financial year under review was a challenging year for its retail operations amidst the global macro economic uncertainties, resulting in weak consumer sentiments especially in the China and Vietnam retail markets.

Eversendai : Maiden exposure to war torn Iraq (MIDF)

Eversendai Corporation Bhd
Maintain BUY
Price (26th Aug 2013) RM1.56
Target Price RM1.73
Maiden exposure to war torn Iraq

Eversendai secured RM24.7m oil and gas contract job from Petronas Carigali Iraq Holding B.V.
The contract is expected to commence and be completed within this year.
The contract adds slightly to the existing outstanding orderbook of RM1.5b.
We reaffirm our BUY call on Eversendai with an unchanged target price of RM1.73.

The Contract. Eversendai has secured RM24.7m oil and gas contract job from Petronas Carigali Iraq Holding B.V. to supply and deliver Fuel Gas Conditioning Unit (GFCU) and associated equipment at the 15 megawatt power plant for Garraf Development Facility Operation.

Malaysia Hide And Seek (UOBKH)

Strategy – Malaysia
Hide And Seek

Persistent market sell-off has created some modest buying opportunities, although we still expect the market to consolidate through 3Q13. Nevertheless, expect improving macro indicators to emerge, particularly in 4Q13, which should allow the ringgit to firm up. While a defensive strategy is appropriate – ie hiding in low beta and high dividend yield stock – we also advocate seeking opportunities for sold down large caps. However, avoid small caps for now.

Thai Beverage : First step but not there yet (CIMB)

Thai Beverage
Current S$0.46
Target S$0.71
First step but not there yet

 F&N has announced that it plans to demerge its property business through a dividend in specie distribution. This paves the way for Thai Bev to sell its 28.6% stake in this business. The question now is what TCC plans to do with its 61.7% stake in F&N.

Presumably, Thai Bev will swap its 28.6% stake in the property business for TCC’s 61.7% stake in F&N. We update our SOP to account for F&N’s split entities. Our SOP-based target price falls because of a 15% discount applied to the property RNAV. Our FY13-15 estimates are also tweaked down due to housekeeping matters. Maintain Outperform with catalysts to come from a further restructuring.

Fraser & Neave : Step-one: price discovery (CIMB)

Fraser & Neave
Current S$5.49
Target S$6.61
Step-one: price discovery

 FNN’s planned demerger and listing of two separate entities appear to be a price discovery exercise for now. While questions remain on the consumer division, it is clear that more is expected to be done to unlock the property value. A hospitality REIT may be a start.

We update our estimates and lower our FY14-15 core EPS by 2-3% to factor in the latest land win at Cecil Street. Our SOP value rises to S$7.73 from S$7.70 with the target price still based on a 20% discount to property RNAV, up from S$6.53 to S$6.61. Maintain Outperform with catalysts from more corporate actions.

Suntec REIT: New city taking shape (OCBC)

Suntec REIT:
Fair value S$1.80
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.092
versus: Current price S$1.51

New city taking shape
• Further progress on refinancing
• Performance likely to improve
• Valuations remain compelling

Suntec REIT announced on 15 Aug that it has established a US$1.5b Euro Medium Term Note programme. We believe Suntec REIT may use this to address part of its refinancing needs due in 2014. If so, this will lock in part of its debts into fixed rates, enhance its debt maturity profile and improve its unencumbered asset ratio.

Coastal Contracts : Pieces falling into place (DBSV)

Coastal Contracts
BUY RM2.75
KLCI : 1,721.07
Price Target : 12-Month RM 3.35 (Prev RM 2.70)
Pieces falling into place

1H13 earnings in line; higher operating margin offset weaker revenue growth (delivered fewer vessels)
Declared 3sen DPS, within expectations
Replenished order book to fuel earnings growth; securing a jack-up rig contract could rerate the stock
Maintain BUY with higher RM3.35 TP

FJ Benjamin: Softening Consumer Sentiment (MKE)

FJ Benjamin
Sell (unchanged)
Share price:SGD0.255
Target price:SGD0.21 (from 0.19)
Softening Consumer Sentiment

 FY13 results below expectations, no recovery yet. FJ Benjamin (FJB) reported its full-year FY6/13 sales with a decline of 5% YoY to SGD373.4m and net profit of SGD4.4m (-68% YoY), due to a drag on sales in North Asia, particularly in the Watches segment, as well as softening consumer sentiment in Singapore. Excluding a one off gain on sale of investment properties, results were still below our bearish estimates. On a more positive note, FJB has declared a 0.5cts final dividend, implying a dividend payout of 64%. We maintain our SELL call, in light of poor consumer sentiment in particular countries to continue to hamper on FJB’s earnings over the next year.

Cordlife : Growth Story Backed by Resilient Earnings (MKE)

Cordlife Group Limited
Buy (unchanged)
Share price: SGD1.28
Target price: SGD1.47 (from SGD1.29)
Growth Story Backed by Resilient Earnings

Results in line. Cordlife announced its 4QFY6/13 results yesterday. Recurring net profit is 6% above our expectation on the back of strong revenue and higher profit from its newly acquired China’s associate. We raise our TP to SGD1.47 and maintain our BUY rating with 15% upside.

Resilient earnings maintained despite headwind in Hong Kong. Earlier, a complete ban of mainland women from giving birth in Hong Kong has raised concern on Cordlife’s earnings, this result show that Singapore market itself is strong enough to outpace a minute slowdown in Hong Kong. With only one product, Singapore market registered a revenue growth of 24%, making up for a slowdown of 17% in Hong Kong market, bringing the total revenue growth to a record strong 15%.

Silverlake Axis : Stellar 4QFY13 Results (OSK)

Silverlake Axis
Target Price: Under Review
Price: SGD0.75
Stellar 4QFY13 Results

 In line with expectation, SILV reported stellar 4QFY13 results with PATAMI of MYR59.8m (+31.4% y-o-y) on the back of a MYR110.2m revenue (+14.6% y-o-y). With the final dividend of 1.1 cent, the stock is now trading at an attractive 4.1% yield with strong growth potential. We put our forecasts and TP under review pending the company’s analysts briefing. Our most recent TP was SGD0.82. Maintain BUY.

曾淵滄專欄 28.08.13:港鐵小商店 變金蛋

恒指昨日與前日一樣,仍然是好淡兩股力量的角力,淡友暫時取勝,昨日支撐恒指的是澳門賭業股及三隻大眾化的消費品股——旺旺(151)、恒安(1044)及康師傅(322)。旺旺與恒安業績不錯,兩股股價上升是正常的。康師傅業績倒退,但昨日股價先跌後升,並以全日高位收市,看來投資者對這類在品牌上已取得領先地位的大眾化消費品,具有相當強的信心。

再者,將來內地城鎮化規劃推行後,人口更加集中,可以節省這類低價消費品的運輸成本,進一步提高利潤。一向以來,運輸成本往往是低價消費品的主要成本,筆者前日與阿里巴巴的管理層一起吃飯,也聽到他們即將投下巨資搞大型物流系統,進一步提高網購效率及削減成本。中國13億人口是很吸引人的市場,但中國幅員廣大,物流系統搞不好,運輸成本沉重。

SPH REIT : A slice of (shopping) heaven (CS)

SPH REIT
Price (26 Aug 13, S$) 0.96
Target price (S$) 1.05¹
A slice of (shopping) heaven

■ A play on Orchard Road’s buzz; proxy to resilient suburban retail. We initiate coverage on SPH REIT with a NEUTRAL rating and S$1.05 target price. SPH REIT comprises two properties: Paragon, one of the top four malls on Orchard Road (by NLA), complemented by Paragon Medical, and Clementi Mall, a suburban mall located at the busy Clementi bus and MRT interchange. With an asset value of S$3.1 bn, SPH REIT is the third largest Singapore dominant retail S-REIT by asset size, after CMT and MCT.

AIRASIA X BERHAD - Long-Term Prospects Intact

AIRASIA X BERHAD -
Price Target:1.43
Last Price:1.05
Long-Term Prospects Intact

Following AirAsia X‟s (AAX) results release last week, we had an analyst briefing teleconference and an update call with AAX management to get more details on its outlook. Despite seasonal weakness in its 2Q13 results, we are still positive on AAX‟s long-term potential, in particular opening of new hubs in Thailand and Indonesia as well as increasing frequencies to bolster its market leadership position in its existing routes. We have an Outperform call on AAX with a 12-month target price of RM1.43 (previously RM1.50) after revising our foreign exchange rate and costs assumptions.

Tuesday, August 27, 2013

Charoen’s F&N to spin off property unit in Singapore listing

Written by Bloomberg  
Tuesday, 27 August 2013 19:05
Fraser & Neave, controlled by Thailand’s richest man, said it plans to spin off its property business from operations including beverages and publishing through a Singapore listing at the end of the year.

The 130-year-old conglomerate will offer to its shareholders two shares of the property company Frasers Centrepoint for every F&N stock held, according to a company statement handed out at a Singapore briefing today.

F&N is spinning off a division with $9 billion of assets as of June, allowing both companies to focus on their separate expansion strategies. The move follows the $13.8 billion takeover by Thai billionaire Charoen Sirivadhanabhakdi, whose company will vote in favor of the transaction, according to the statement.

全年业绩虽符预测 杨忠礼电力没派息市场失望

全年业绩虽符预测 杨忠礼电力没派息市场失望
Created 08/27/2013 - 12:03
(吉隆坡26日讯)市场对于杨忠礼电力(YTLPOWR,6742,主板基建股)在2013财年末季(截至6月30日)未派发股息大感失望,尽管全年业绩符合市场预测。

兴业研究投行对杨忠礼电力未派发末季股息感到相当失望,指该公司2013财年派出的股息与去年比较相形见绌,全年每股股息为0.9仙,去年为3.8仙。

寻求海外投资

不过,在预测杨忠礼电力每年投入WiMAX的资本开销,将从3亿5000万至4亿令吉,走低至3亿令吉下;兴业研究投行并不排除将2014财年和2015财年派息率正常化的可能性。

重估产业价值 汇华净收益1.46亿

重估产业价值 汇华净收益1.46亿
Created 08/27/2013 - 12:04
(吉隆坡26日讯)在重新评估投资产业的价值后,汇华产业(HUNZPTY,5018,主板产业股)取得1亿4610万令吉的净收益。

汇华产业日前向大马交易所报备,为旗下所有投资产业进行年度重新估算活动。这项活动已在6月份完成。

在这项重新估算的活动下,公司成功取得1亿4610万令吉的净收益。

文告中指出,汇华产业董事部已批准把这项净收益,计算在2013财年(截至6月30日)的业绩中。

获国油2470万合约 依华建台进军中东油气业

获国油2470万合约 依华建台进军中东油气业
Created 08/27/2013 - 12:05
(吉隆坡26日讯)依华建台(SENDAI,5205,主板建筑股)宣布,获得国油探勘伊拉克控股颁发的首个总值2470万令吉油气合约。

依华建台透过联营公司———依华建台工艺(Eversendai Technics),取得该项合约,合约的内容是为Garraf项目的15百万瓦特的发电厂,供应和交付燃料天然气空调机组(FGCU)和相关设备。

依华建台执行主席兼董事经理丹斯里AK纳登表示,这是联营计划好的开始,让公司进军中东油气领域。

Malaysian Airline System - Operating Stats Still Looking Good

Malaysian Airline System -
Price Target:0.34
Last Price:0.315
Operating Stats Still Looking Good

Malaysia  Airlines  (MAS)’ operating statistics for July continued  to  see  positive  growth,  in  line  with  the airline’s  strategy  of  boosting  market share  to  achieve  scale  and  generate  higher  revenue  to  improve profitability. We think the strategy is working despite the airline having to  sacrifice  yield,  as  MAS  is  now  generating  positive  operating  cash flow. Maintain NEUTRAL, with its FV at MYR0.34.  

Matrix Concepts - Strong earnings and land acquisition

Matrix Concepts -
Price Target:2.84
Last Price:2.57
Strong earnings and land acquisition

Results
2Q net profit came in at RM30m, bringing 1H earnings to RM76m, or 64% and 60% of HLIB and consensus estimates respectively.

Deviations
Due to stronger than expected margins in progress billings.

Dividends
5.25 sen net DPS was declared in 2Q13, bringing YTD DPS to 15.4 sen, or 59% of our 26 sen DPS forecast.

Uni-Asia Holdings : Growth Plans Remain Intact (VR)

Uni-Asia Holdings
Increase Exposure
Growth Plans Remain Intact
 Intrinsic Value S$0.290
 Prev ClosingS$0.197

 Uni-Asia Holdings Limited (Uni-Asia) reported 2Q 2013 net profit of US$0.3m on revenue of US$16.3m. 2H net profit and revenue came in at 43% and 41% of our full year forecasts. We maintain our forecasts as a number of anticipated profit catalysts are expected to be realized in 2013. Maintain Increase Exposure.

Results Summary: During 2Q 2013, all three of Uni-Asia’s asset operating businesses i.e. shipping, Japan property investment & management and hotel operations reported positive profits for the first time since 4Q 2011. Net profit was, however, offset by US$0.9m of losses at the corporate level i.e. non-consolidated Uni-Asia Finance due to lower investment income.

China Minzhong Food : Ceasing coverage (CIMB)

China Minzhong Food
Ceasing coverage

 We share Glaucus Research’s concerns about MINZ’s reliance on capital markets for cash generation and ballooning receivable days. We cease coverage of MINZ, with our last rating being Outperform with a target price of S$1.27 (5x CY14 P/E, its peer average).
 
What Happened
Glaucus Research, an independent US-based research house, this morning issued a sell report on MINZ, alluding to its reliance on debt & equity financing as a primary source of cash generation; ballooning receivables; “fabricated” sales; and “suspicious” capex. MINZ’s stock subsequently tanked 50% and trading in its shares has been halted.  

美国量宽退场 东协山雨欲来

美国量宽退场 东协山雨欲来
Created 08/26/2013 - 13:11
万众瞩目的9月,即将来临。

一切起因,乃美国联储局主席伯南克5月22日的一席发言。他在美国国会首度暗示,第三轮量化宽松政策(QE),或在今年9月开始退市。

此言一出,撼动全球。市场揣测联储局削减购债计划退场的确切时间点,在没有更清楚的指引下,不安与担忧掀起新兴市场的抛售风,当中不少国际基金重新调整投资组合。

经济学家以市场基本面和其他因素推算,包含大马在内的东协,将是最脆弱、最易遭受QE退场冲击的区域经济体。

华商与经济转型系列88:捷运高铁发力(下)二线城市房产看涨

华商与经济转型系列88:捷运高铁发力(下)二线城市房产看涨
Created 08/26/2013 - 13:12
新轻快铁路线同时也与重要交通枢纽如中环车站等连接,预计将为120万居民提供便捷的公共交通服务,在未来能直接拉动沿着这条路线发展邻近地区的产业升值。

我国的产业市场近几年来火红一片,特别是自2010年之后,各主要城市的产业价格暴涨,需求量仍高居不下。

加上多项大型基建发展计划开跑或即将开跑,令这股热潮延伸至受基建发展带动的非核心城市。

YTL Power FY13 results disappoint, as the outlook remains uncertain (CS)

YTL Power
Maintain UNDERPERFORM
Price (23 Aug 13 , RM) 1.59
TP (prev. TP RM) 1.40 (1.40)
FY13 results disappoint, as the outlook remains uncertain

● YTL Power’s (YTLP) FY13 net profit of RM1.1 bn fell 13% YoY on higher taxes. PBT fell 4% as strong water profit (+12% YoY) was negated by lower power generation profit (-38% YoY) and a one-off gain reported in FY12. Results were within street expectations, but below our forecasts

● The outlook remains poor. Non-renewal of the Malaysian Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) is compounded by the large power generation cap acity increases in Singapore that will for its  adversely affected YTP's merchant power unit.

Malaysia Market Strategy : Don't throw the baby out with the bath water (CS)

Malaysia Market Strategy
New report: Don't throw the baby out with the bath water

● The market is focusing on the bad news: the weak ringgit, high household debt, Fitch downgrade, high foreign ownership of the equity and bond markets, and the relatively rich valuations.

● The good news is that Malaysian corporates are in a much better shape today, as they have cleaned up their balance sheets post- AFC. Net gearing peaked in 1998 at 67% and today is at 24%. Net debt/EBITDA peaked in 1998 at 4.0x and is now at a comfortable 1.2x. ROE has improved to 11.4%.

Genting Hong Kong : Short Cruises To Profit Destinations (UOBKH)

Genting Hong Kong
Share Price US$0.415
Target Price US$0.42
Short Cruises To Profit Destinations

We expect Genting Hong Kong (GENHK) to post a seasonally stronger 2H13, as the earnings disappointment in 1H13 was largely tied to nonrecurring costs. We are lowering our 2013-15F core net profit forecasts by 3%, 7% and 7% respectively. Maintain HOLD, and we nudge up our target price to US$0.42. Entry price: US$0.40.

Consumer sector: Still under pressure (OCBC)

Consumer sector:
Still under pressure
For 2HCY13, we expect consumer-related companies under the FTSE Straits Times Consumer Services Index (FSTCS Index) to experience lower-than-expected revenue growth as sentiment turns bearish both domestically and abroad. With weaker economic data points (e.g. Indonesia’s GDP and China’s slowdown) re-affirming lingering economic uncertainty, consumer companies are likely to face challenges as consumers shift away from discretionary spending. As we expect sell-offs of the sector to continue in light of these headwinds, we maintain our UNDERWEIGHT rating on the sector. Within the sector, we favour counters with defensive qualities such as Sheng Siong [BUY; FV: S$0.82] over counters with high exposure to emerging Asia consumer demand like Petra Foods [HOLD; FV: S$3.95] and counters with wafer-thin operating margins like BreadTalk [SELL; FV: S$0.77].

曾淵滄專欄 27.08.13: 阿里上市 用錢解決

再過兩天,就是本月期指結算日,好淡雙方已開始角力,看好的是借中國股市有反彈迹象進攻,看淡者仍在利用美國退市的恐慌來力抗。

不過,強勢股始終是強勢股,銀娛(027)終於再創歷史新高價,澳門賭業在可預見的將來不容易出問題,而且,長遠來說,澳門經濟會與橫琴合而為一,澳門面積太小,加上橫琴島就如虎添翼。

昨日出席了阿里巴巴的一個飯局,看來阿里巴巴對在香港上市的興趣遠超過紐約,現在正在努力於香港搞公關工作,企圖說服港交所(388)特別批准阿里巴巴的上市模式,一個類似太古A(019)及太古B(087)的模式,很多年前,太古集團把其股票分成太古A及太古B,兩種股份的投票權不一樣,當時被批評是不公平的行為,後來,將股票分為A、B兩種的做法停止了。

Singapore Strategy: Rocky ride ahead (DBSV)

Singapore Strategy: Rocky ride ahead

•Rocky ride ahead, start of QE tapering could offer temporary respite
•Prefer recovery proxies in US/Europe with yield support
•Stay away from stocks with emerging market exposure
•Key picks are STE, Venture, CSE, Hi-P, HPHT, Ezion, Goodpack, Comfort Delgro and Singapore Post

Held hostage by emerging markets uncertainties. The reversal in fund flows out of Asia and emerging markets back to developed economies, triggered by the anticipation of QE tapering, rising US 10-year treasury yields and a rebound in the USD, Euro and GBP had exposed the structural vulnerabilities of emerging market economies with high current account deficits. While the Singapore market has outperformed regional bourses, we expect a rocky ride for Singapore equities, held hostage by the still developing emerging markets uncertainties.

S-REIT: Taking stock of yield spreads (CIMB)

Taking stock of yield spreads
QE tapering is drawing near and with it, rising long bond yields and falling S-REIT prices. S-REITs trade at the long-term average spread of 396bp over the 10-year SGS yield. This would be attractive in a normal cycle but not now. We expect SREITs’ repricing to continue.

 For value hunters, this is not the time to be aggressive. We maintain our Neutral call. A strong management, solid financials, AEI growth prospects and valuation buffer remain our stock selection criteria. AREIT stands out in this regard and remains our top pick. SUN is also an Outperform as its 0.7x P/BV valuation and 6.3% FY14 yield are hard to ignore. The sector’s re-rating catalyst is the stabilisation of interest rates.

QE退場後 REIT還值得投資?

QE退場後 REIT還值得投資?
http://paper.wenweipo.com   [2013-08-27]    
山西省政協委員、特許測計師、中國房地產估價師 張宏業
根據彭博通訊社資料,金融海嘯後美國推出幾輪量化寬鬆(下稱QE)政策,使全球房地產上升,其漲價還比股票市場厲害。從2009年3月至2013年7月,MSCI世界指數(權威性股票指數)上漲了116%,但代表不動產投資信託基金(下稱REIT)的富時全球不動產指數卻急升181%。

在年中傳出美國聯儲局會提前結束QE的消息傳出後,全球股票和債券市場一齊「地震」,連REIT價格都從5月下旬高位回遠,個多月內跌幅已超過10%至6月下旬才喘定,並在低位「橫行」直至今天!以香港幾隻上市的REIT股份為例,越秀房託(0405)、領匯(0823)及富豪(1881)的股價自5月中旬到今天分別下跌約17.6%、18.8%及12.5%,相比本港樓市表現還差一點。從美國聯儲局言論考量,QE退場只不過是時間的問題,如果QE退場後,REIT還值得我們投資嗎?

SPH REIT: Defensive attributes priced in (AM)

SPH REIT: Defensive attributes priced in
(Initiation - HOLD, FV: S$0.870)
SPH REIT is a Singapore-based real estate investment trust established principally to invest in a portfolio of income-producing real estate which is used primarily for retail purposes in Asia-Pacific. SPH REIT’s portfolio consists of two retail properties, namely Paragon and the Clementi Mall. Distributions to Unitholders are on a quarterly basis.

Our investment thesis for SPH REIT is centred on its defensive growth prospects. We like SPH REIT for the quality of its retail assets, strong sponsor backing as well as its exposure to the healthcare services sector.

Monday, August 26, 2013

新興市場股匯債三殺!東協國家大崩盤?



Pantech benefits from weaker ringgit

Pantech benefits from weaker ringgit
Insider Asia
Written by InsiderAsia    
Monday, 26 August 2013 11:24

 Increased speculations on the timing of the US Federal Reserve pulling back on its bond purchase programme buffeted emerging capital markets in recent days. The reversal of capital flow — on expectations of a stronger US economy and rising long dated government bond yields — sent bond and stock markets as well as currencies for many emerging countries lower.

The ringgit fell well out of its trading range — of between 3 and 3.2 to the US dollar — for the first time since mid-2010. At its worst, the local currency traded above 3.33 against the greenback — compared with its recent high of 2.93 in mid-May.

金群利购地进 军巴生谷產业市场

(芙蓉26日讯)金群利集团(Matrix,5236,主板產业股)以4360万令吉收购吉隆坡两片总面积达1.1英亩的土地,为进军巴生谷產业市场铺路。两片永久地契土地,与吉隆坡太子世界贸易中心(PWTC)毗邻,交通方便。

金群利集团计划在这土地上进发展总数值高达2亿5000万令吉的综合发展计划,包括有完善设备的服务式公寓及零售和餐饮店面。

金群利独资子公司Superb Approach私人有限公司,与Chong Hoe地產私人有限公司签署买卖协议,收购有关的土地。4360万令吉的成价当中,40%將通过內部融资,其余60%的资金將通过银行贷款获得。

该公司主席拿督哈芝莫哈末哈斯兰指出,在大量的年轻人口涌入吉隆坡寻找工作机会的浪潮中,交通方面,价格適中且设备齐全的住宅將继续获得需求。

馬股棄牛從熊?本週重要關鍵期

馬股棄牛從熊?本週重要關鍵期
Created 08/26/2013 - 17:30
(吉隆坡26日訊)亞洲市場上週經歷外資大逃亡,其中馬股撤資規模冠亞洲,分析員雖看好市場賣壓將有所舒緩,企業財報表現將為富時綜合指數提供支撐,但馬股恐已走向技術分水嶺,本週走勢將判斷市場是否棄牛從熊,而1650至1700點將是重要支撐,一旦失守將令下行風險劇增。

上週撤資8.8億美元
“冠”亞洲

數據顯示,外資上週大舉從亞洲撤資,韓國、台灣、泰國、大馬、菲律賓、印尼和印度7大市場僅有韓國市場倖免於難,為數29億7千萬美元的撤資金額為今年內第四高水平,而大馬多達8億8千100萬美元撤資金額冠絕亞洲,拖累富時綜合指數全週下挫3.76%。

Weekend Comment Aug 23: Who's next to be hit in emerging Asia?

Weekend Comment Aug 23: Who's next to be hit in emerging Asia?
WRITTEN BY FRANKIE HO  
SATURDAY, 24 AUGUST 2013 10:07

AS INDONESIA AND India struggle to stem massive capital outflows that have left their currencies battered and bruised, the thought of Asia sinking into another financial crisis is inevitably on the minds of investors.

Both countries are finding it harder to use US dollars to fund their huge current account deficits – where imports exceed exports – as money flows out and the greenback strengthens in anticipation of higher US interest rates.

Hua Yang plans to double revenue

Hua Yang plans to double revenue
Business & Markets 2013
Written by Fatin Rasyiqah Mustaza of theedgemalaysia.com    
Monday, 26 August 2013 11:19

KUALA LUMPUR: HUA YANG BHD [] expects to continue selling affordable houses — priced less than RM500,000 — as its core strategy to double its revenue to RM800 million in five years.

For the financial year ended March 31, 2013 (FY13), it posted a net profit of RM70.47 million or 36.58 sen per share on the back of RM408.67 million revenue.

Hua Yang CEO Ho Wen Yan said the group caters to first home buyers and the affordable market segment, where demand outstrips supply.

YTL Power conserves cash for 1BestariNet, no dividend yet

YTL Power conserves cash for 1BestariNet, no dividend yet
Business & Markets 2013
Written by Charlotte Chong of theedgemalaysia.com    
Monday, 26 August 2013 10:49

KUALA LUMPUR: YTL POWER INTERNATIONAL BHD [] has not paid dividend in three consecutive quarters as it conserves cash for its 1BestariNet project and future acquisitions.

Analysts said the utility arm of the conglomerate YTL Corp Bhd will keep its cash in its kitty to fund the 1BestariNet project, which it secured two years ago. The project is estimated to cost a total of RM4.5 billion over the next 15 years.

REITs lose lustre as bond yields rise

REITs lose lustre as bond yields rise
Business & Markets 2013
Written by Kamarul Anwar of theedgemalaysia.com    
Monday, 26 August 2013 08:52

KUALA LUMPUR: Real estate investment trusts (REITs), the darling of risk-averse investors a year ago, are losing their lustre as investors switch to government debt papers, the Malaysian Government Securities (MGS).

This comes as the yields of MGS rise with the outflow of funds following the US Federal Reserve’s impending move to reduce its asset purchase that has been in place since 2009.

An Affin Investment Bank Bhd analyst told The Edge Financial Daily that when REITs were the flavour of investors, the gap between MGS and REIT yields was apparent.

曾渊沧:两股力量支撑港股 低位做空不可取

上个星期,港股还好好地继续反弹,但是,数天前,市场突然出现一股恐慌。恐慌1997年的亚洲金融风暴的重演,不止港股如此,亚洲多个国家地区也如此。8月20日上午11时之前,恒指仍好好地在高位徘徊,突然之间一泄如注。当天,令香港各大报章都出现一则新闻,指印尼、印度、泰国等国的货币创近几年新低,股市也一样。因此,当股市突然急转而下时,市场分析员马上发出亚洲金融风暴重临的警告,三天之内,恒指急跌1000点。不过,在第三天,即昨天,又由低位反弹300点。

国际大鳄兴风作浪

很明显的,过去三天恒指急跌1000点,只是国际大鳄闻报无聊,趁股市淡静兴风作浪,小试牛刀,吃尽恒指1000点的利润当点心。

3專家把脈 港股力抗美收水

投資界看儲局收水對港股影響
3專家把脈 港股力抗美收水
受惠內地經濟穩 惟期指對決添波動
儲局9月收水機會高唱入雲,美國10年期債息更直逼3厘,亞洲熱錢退潮。三大投資專家為美國收水對港股影響把脈,認為資金會從亞洲撤離,但中國經濟趨穩之下,中港市場影響相對較小。

Asia Enterprises : All dependent on steel prices (UOBKH)

Asia Enterprises
Share Price S$0.230
All dependent on steel prices

Valuation
• Asia Enterprises (AEH) is trading at a forward PE and P/B of 14.4x and 0.7x respectively. Based on Bloomberg’s estimate, AEH has a 12- month target price of S$0.29 with a 2013F dividend yield of 4.35%.

Investment Highlights
• We attended AEH’s results presentation. AEH is a steel distributor that supplies steel products to the Marine and Offshore, Engineering and Construction sector. The company’s products are catered mostly to customers in Indonesia and Singapore.

AirAsia X : Challenges and opportunities (CIMB)

AirAsia X
Current RM1.18
Target RM1.47
Challenges and opportunities

 AAX hosted its inaugural results briefing yesterday. Although AAX is building its regional market presence, life as a long-haul LCC is never easy. Competition from MAS, the ringgit depreciation, and the hard-to-estimate loss from new route launches make forecasting difficult.

We maintain Outperform with an unchanged SOP-based target price, pegging 11x CY14 P/E for the KUL hub (sector average) and a separate Bali hub valuation of 8x CY14 P/E. Our forecasts stay unchanged. Rerating catalysts include its rapid growth prospects in the region.

VARD : NOK800m OSCV Order From Farstad (OSK)

VARD
Target Price: SGD1.10
Price: SGD0.87
NOK800m OSCV Order From Farstad

 Vard won a NOK800m (USD131m) repeat order from Farstad for an offshore subsea construction vessel (OSCV), bringing its YTD order win to NOK11.3bn. We maintain our EPS estimates but see some upside risks to our new order forecast of NOK12bn. We like Vard for its strong positioning in building high-end offshore support vessels (OSVs) and its attractive valuations at 7.4x FY14F P/E and EV/EBITDA of 3.9x.

Singapore REITs : Treading a fine path (DBSV)

Singapore REITs
Treading a fine path

•Flows over fundamentals impacting prices
•Volatility to stay; not time to pile in  
•Potential downside risks if further hikes are seen; however some offer value
•Picks: CDREIT, Cache, Suntec and CRCT

Flows presiding over fundamentals. Despite reporting a firm set of financial performance in 2Q13 (growing top line and stable interest costs), S-REITs share prices continue to remain under pressure. The weakness in share prices appears to derive from fund outflows and heightened required returns rather than weakening fundamentals.

Yangzijiang Shipbuilding: VLGC orders for Chinese yards? (OCBC)

Yangzijiang Shipbuilding:
Fair value S$0.99
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.04
versus: Current price S$0.935

VLGC orders for Chinese yards?
• Potential VLGC orders?
• YZJ’s expertise mainly in other areas
• Still weathering the storm well

According to Platts, a number of Chinese firms are seeking older VLGCs, as the country seeks to build its own VLGC fleet. There is talk that China Oriental Energy may look to order more VLGCs, with YZJ as a potential beneficiary, but we note that while the latter’s Xinfu yard has plans to build large vessels and has an annual production

ECS Holdings: Beneficiary of product refresh cycle (OCBC)

ECS Holdings:
Fair value S$0.56
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.022
versus: Current price S$0.49

Beneficiary of product refresh cycle
• 2Q13 core PATMI misses
• Positive operating cashflows generated
• Trim estimates but maintain BUY

We met up with the management of ECS Holdings following its recent 2Q13 results. Revenue and PATMI rose 23.5% and 11.0% YoY to S$1,017.5m and S$9.0m, respectively. However, after adjusting for forex and other exceptional items, we estimate that core earnings declined 7.3% YoY from S$7.4m to S$6.9m, which was below our expectations. On a positive note, ECS managed to lower its net gearing ratio from 59.4% (as at end 2Q12) to 38.5% (as at end 2Q13) due to good working capital management. Looking ahead, we expect ECS to be a beneficiary of new product launches by major IT vendors such as Apple. We trim our FY13 and FY14 core PATMI forecasts by 6.2% and 3.9%, respectively. But as we also roll forward our valuations to 6x blended FY13/14F core EPS, our fair value estimate only declines marginally from S$0.57 to S$0.56. Maintain BUY.

Saizen REIT: Visibility of DPU comes at a price

Saizen REIT: Visibility of DPU comes at a price
(Maintain HOLD, FV: S$0.195)

• Revenue from acquisitions kicking in. Saizen’s gross revenue and net property income increased by 9.7% and 13.6% respectively in FY13, largely supported by its acquisitions of seven properties. For the six-month ending 30 June 2013, Saizen declared a DPU of 0.63 cents, amounting to a full-year DPU of 1.29c. This is marginally higher than our projected FY13 DPU of 1.24c.

• Inching towards positive rental reversions. In FY13, overall rental reversions of new contracts were marginally lower by about 0.5%. This marks an improvement from rental reversions witnessed in FY12, during which rental reversions were lower by 2.1%. Given our cautiously optimistic outlook on the Japanese residential market, we maintain our assumption of flat rental reversions across Saizen’s portfolio.

Amtek Engineering : Improving momentum (DBSV)

Amtek Engineering Limited:
HOLD  (Upgrade from Fully Valued)
S$0.465;
Improving momentum;
Price Target : 12-Month S$ 0.48 (Prev S$ 0.45)

•4Q13 core below but sequential improvement suggests worst is over for now
•New programmes and continuous cost management to drive core earnings growth
•Upgrade to Hold, upped TP to S$0.48 on earnings rollover to FY14F

Small operating losses in 4Q13 vs S$2m profit forecast due to restructuring costs.Headline net profit of S$10.9m included a S$10.8m gain from the divestment of a factory building. Without this gain, 4Q13 would be a small loss of S$0.1m, compared to S$2m forecast. Key variance was c.S$5m of capacity restructuring expenses.

Asia Enterprises : Improving outlook… (NRA)

Asia Enterprises
Current Price S$0.23
Fair Value S$0.29
Improving outlook…

Earnings in line with expectation. Asia Enterprise’s (AEH) 2Q13 net profit of S$1.3m was in line with our expectation. Key variances were lower-than-expected revenue and higher taxation but offset by greater-than-expected gross profit margins and forex gain. We keep our earnings estimates and fair value S$0.29, still pegged at 0.9x FY13 PBR. Maintain our Overweight recommendation.

曾淵滄專欄 26.08.13:新盤劈價仍賺大錢

在8月20日,恒指在亞洲金融風暴重演的恐慌下,出現第一天的暴跌;8月21日再跌;8月22日則先跌後回升。到了8月23日,恒指全天的走勢就完全跟着內地股市走。換言之,中國因素又再成了影響港股的最重要力量。

銀娛(027)股價已很接近歷史新高,說明投資者對澳門賭業仍存巨大憧憬,也反映大鱷只能選擇性震倉,有巨大憧憬的概念股,不易埋手。澳門概念配合橫琴概念,是大鱷不敢動澳門賭業股念頭的原因。

另一個大鱷不敢狙擊的板塊是網絡股,若阿里巴巴落實在香港上市,大量實力雄厚的包銷商,必撐起同類股的股。

Parkson Retail Asia : Weak numbers from Malaysia (CIMB)

Parkson Retail Asia
Current S$1.40
Target S$1.38
Weak numbers from Malaysia

 We expected a weaker quarter from Malaysia, but the extent of the earnings miss surprised us. Election uncertainty in 4QFY6/13 aside, management guided that sales were affected by weak consumer sentiment in Malaysia which could continue for the next few quarters.

4Q forms just 7% of our and consensus FY13 estimates. FY13 core net profit was below at 82% of our forecast. We cut FY14-15 estimates by 20-22% for higher cost assumptions and introduce FY16 numbers. Our target price is reduced (still based on 22x CY14 P/E, in line with peers). We downgrade to Underperform from Outperform due to lower profitability in Malaysia. Catalysts are a return to profitability in Malaysia and Indonesia’s entry.

Malaysian Bulk Carriers : Approaching calmer seas (CIMB)

Malaysian Bulk Carriers
Current RM1.75
Target RM2.02
Approaching calmer seas

 1H13 core profit was above our but in line with consensus at 94% and 49% of FY13 estimates, as bulk losses were lower than feared. A slow but gradual recovery in bulk rates is in the offing, and Maybulk could benefit from its ability to buy cheap ships using its cash balances.

We upgrade from Neutral to Outperform after increasing FY13-15 EPS on narrower dry bulk losses as we were previously over-conservative on cost. Our target price continues to be based on SOP and is raised to reflect Maybulk's higher cash position at end-FY13. Re-rating catalysts include continuing profitability improvements at its dry bulk division as freight rates recover.

傑出財情:航運股 好景料短暫

傑出財情:航運股 好景料短暫


多間環球大型航運企業將於九月一日起聯手調升運價,龍頭馬士基將上調亞洲至北歐航線運價,中遠集運上調遠東至南美東航線運價,20呎標準箱上調750美元,40呎標箱上調1,500美元,此外,法國CMA-CGM、德國Hapag-Lloyd、日本NYK、南韓Hanjin及地中海航運MSC亦於當日起漲價。

傳統上,八至十月為航運旺季,調升運費說得上是例行公事。短線而言漲價利好航運股表現,但在需求疲軟及運力過剩的背景下,長線而言,運費短暫上升後將會打回原形。

運力仍然供過於求

金融風暴未成氣候

三大專家剖析 97金融風暴重臨
近月亞洲新興國股匯市場火燒連環船,先有印度、印尼,繼而是泰國、菲律賓,金融風暴再起之說不脛而走。提起金融風暴,港人無不提心吊膽。今期「投資導航」透過四大指標——經濟狀況、股匯走勢、外圍因素及資金流向,再配合專家意見,歸納出金融風暴其實未成氣候,為大家定一定驚。

指標一:各國赤字改善
亞洲市場近日面對的恐慌情況,有97年的影子,雖然近期各國經濟有惡化迹象,但較諸當年過熱場面,情況相對較易控制。例如各國的經常賬赤字佔國內生產總值(GDP)比例較當年改善;另一方面,區內企業現時的財政狀況亦相對穩健。

Sunday, August 25, 2013

台灣股神胡立陽:金錢遊戲結束了‧你將受苦10年

台灣股神胡立陽:金錢遊戲結束了‧你將受苦10年
Created 08/25/2013 - 14:53
“最近,大家身體都很不舒服,台北很多人頭痛、眼痛,到醫院都檢查不出毛病,有人問我,究竟該去哪家醫院?結果,我告訴他只有一個醫生可以治療,那就是伯南克醫生……”

曾被美國華爾街稱為“股市神童”的胡立陽,來馬不忘幽默風趣地大展本色,笑言,望著美國聯邦儲備局伯老,一下說QE(量化寬鬆)要結束,一下很曖昧;今天暗示可能印更多鈔票,明天又說要縮減債券;盤旋在可能、也許、不排除、但是……的暗語中,誰不給他搞得頭疼?

全場哄堂大笑後,他又馬上一臉正經,語重心長地說:“不過,我要告訴你,金錢遊戲結束了,未來10年你將受苦。”

MK LAND : Inspiring Results

MK LAND BERHAD -
Price Target:0.80
Last Price:0.375
Inspiring Results

MK Land ended FY13 with a better than expected performance, after posting RM14.6m (+131.3 Y-o-Y, +9.5% Q-o-Q) and RM40.6m ytd (+67.7%) or 15.6% above our estimates Again, property development i.e. the Rafflesia semi-Ds and the One Damansara condominiums continued to drive its earnings. With the late charges from project delays behind them, EBIT margins improved better than expected to 23.5%, which is more than doubled Y-o-Y.

The Ringgit, Rupee and Rupiah to Fall Further?



Guan Chong : Dragged by weak ASP (DBSV)

Guan Chong
FULLY VALUED
RM1.64 KLCI : 1,720.37
Price Target : 12-Month RM 1.30 (Prev RM 1.35)
Dragged by weak ASP

2Q13 net profit tumbled to RM7.4m, dragged down by lower ASP for cocoa powder and inventory writedown
Earnings risks persist due to volatile cocoa price outlook
Maintain Fully Valued with lower RM1.30 TP

Highlights
Disappointing 2Q13 results. Net profit tumbled 79% y-o-y and 55% q-o-q to RM7.4m, on the back of mildly weaker revenue of RM299.1m (-4.4% y-o-y, -18% q-o-q). This takes 1H13 net profit to RM24.0m (-64% y-o-y), which is only 25% of our initial full year estimate.

YTL Power : Dividend disappoint (DBSV)

YTL Power
HOLD RM1.59
KLCI : 1,720.37
Price Target : 12-Month RM 1.70
Dividend disappoint

FY13 profit in line with our estimate but 10% below market expectation
No dividend for 4QFY13; conserving cash for acquisitions
New acquisitions are crucial to cushion against earnings drop after expiry of Malaysian PPAs in 2015
Maintain HOLD rating and RM1.70 TP

Highlights
Higher water earnings cushioned weaker power contribution. Water division PBT grew 12.5% y-o-y as a result of higher tariff rate since Oct12, and partially offset weaker power contribution from Malaysia (-38%) due to provision for receivables. PBT from PowerSeraya was stable y-o-y, while YES WIMAX operation booked a smaller loss of RM269m (-13% y-o-y) following a larger subscriber base and contribution from Bistarinet. PowerSeraya is the largest contributor (45%) to the group, followed by Wessex (42%) and Malaysia power plants (11%).

Hua Yang Mission Possible: Affordable housing



ETP Global Malaysia Series #3 - Tan Sri Tony Fernandes



Parkson Retail Asia : 4Q13 a Blip On Slowing Sales Momentum (RHB)

Parkson Retail Asia
Target Price: SGD1.28
Price: SGD1.40
4Q13 a Blip On Slowing Sales Momentum

PRA’s 4Q13 recurring profit of SGD3.4m (-47% y-o-y, -65% q-o-q) was below consensus’ SGD13m estimate, mainly due to weak SSSG and margin dips in Malaysia and Vietnam. We now expect FY14F-15F earnings to grow by 9%/33% to SGD41m/SGD55m, and switch to a DCF valuation to better reflect the company’s cash-generative nature and SGD177m net cash. Maintain NEUTRAL, with a lower SGD1.28 TP.

Is Malaysia the next shoe to drop in emerging markets?



Is it bad timing for REIT IPOs now?



Fed tapering not the be-all and end-all : Lim Say Boon



Motley Fool talks on what’s driving the massive volatility in global markets.


AirAsia X : Shrinking losses in a traditionally weak quarter (MIDF)

AirAsia X Bhd
Price (20 August 2013) RM1.19
Target Price RM1.70
Shrinking losses in a traditionally weak quarter

INVESTMENT HIGHLIGHTS
Lower 2Q13 core net losses of -RM28.4 as compared to –RM52m in 2Q13 due to higher traffic and improving yield base.
Maintain BUY stance with unchanged TP of RM1.70, derived from FY14–PER of 12x which is the average of the global peers.

IOI Corporation : On track for property spin off (DBSV)

IOI Corporation
BUY RM5.30
KLCI : 1,744.85
Price Target : 12-month RM 5.95 (Prev RM 6.15)
On track for property spin off

4QFYJune13 core pretax of RM314m was below expectations; 8.5 sen DPS declared
Ex fair value gains, Property reported weaker than expected operating profit; Plantations and Manufacturing were also below our estimates
FY14F/15F/16F earnings tweaked by -3.4%/-2.6%/-0.4% to account for lower cash level; TP is adjusted to RM5.95 (based on SOP)
BUY call reiterated for 14% potential return (including c.2% dividend yield)

AirAsia : Yields sink as MAS turns up heat (CIMB)

AirAsia Bhd
Current RM2.98
Target RM3.45
Yields sink as MAS turns up heat

 AirAsia’s 1H13 core net profit was below expectations, accounting for only 23% of our full-year estimate, against a typical 35-40%. This was due to an 11% yoy decline in base yields during 2Q13, substantially worse than our previous forecast for a 2% decline for 2013 as a whole.

We maintain Outperform but cut our FY13-15 core EPS forecasts 14-19%, lowering our yield assumptions as competition in the Malaysian aviation space steps up. We also increase loss forecasts for AAP and assume a weaker RM but raise estimates for IAA. Our target price is reduced, still based on the sector average 11x CY14 P/E. Long-term re-rating catalysts include AirAsia’s structural growth despite competitive challenges.

Mark Laudi: Pictures That Tell a Thousand Stories



Warren E. Buffett(沃伦•巴菲特)
Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful
别人贪婪时我恐惧, 别人恐惧时我贪婪
投资只需学好两门课: 一,是如何给企业估值,二,是如何看待股市波动
吉姆·罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)
“错过时机”胜于“搞错对象”:不会全军覆没!”
做自己熟悉的事,等到发现大好机会才投钱下去

乔治·索罗斯(George Soros)

“犯错误并没有什么好羞耻的,只有知错不改才是耻辱。”

如果操作过量,即使对市场判断正确,仍会一败涂地。

李驰(中国巴菲特)
高估期间, 卖对, 不卖也对, 买是错的。
低估期间, 买对, 不买也是对, 卖是错的。

Tan Teng Boo


There’s no such thing as defensive stocks.Every stock can be defensive depending on what price you pay for it and what value you get,
冷眼(冯时能)投资概念
“买股票就是买公司的股份,买股份就是与陌生人合股做生意”。
合股做生意,则公司股份的业绩高于一切,而股票的价值决定于盈利。
价值是本,价格是末,故公司比股市重要百倍。
曹仁超-香港股神/港股明灯
1.有智慧,不如趁势
2.止损不止盈
成功者所以成功,是因为不怕失败!失败者所以失败,是失败后不再尝试!
曾淵滄-散户明灯
每逢灾难就是机会,而是在灾难发生时贱价买股票,然后放在一边,耐性地等灾难结束
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