Saturday, August 24, 2013

美債殖利率大幅攀高!其他國家也無可倖免?



索羅斯大膽放空美股?美股前方是懸崖?



硬碟领域前景欠佳 JCY国际財测下调

(吉隆坡24日讯)由于硬碟需求下滑,加上营运效率差劲,JCY国际(JCY,5161,主板科技股)在2013財政年第3季(截至6月30日止)由盈转亏损,蒙受1283万令吉的亏损,首9个月的亏损则达到5934万令吉。

分析员普遍认为,硬碟需求中期仍不明朗,因此,纷纷下调该公司的盈利预测。而拉昔胡申研究分析员却独排眾议,上调盈利预测30至120%,主要是因为令吉下滑,以及较低的营运开销。

外匯亏损740万

未来2季推7产业 华阳放眼6亿销售目标

未来2季推7产业 华阳放眼6亿销售目标
Created 08/24/2013 - 11:37
(吉隆坡23日讯)华阳(HUAYANG,5062,主板产业股)逐渐调高销售目标水平,2014财政年的销售目标设在6亿令吉,是该公司有史以来所设下最高水平。

华阳总执行长何文渊称,该6亿令吉的销售目标,主要将由旗下所有的项目所推动。

该公司将在未来的2个季度内,于巴生谷推出3项新项目;而柔佛及怡保,也将分别推出各2项新项目。

何文渊在常年股东大会及特别股东大会结束后,接受记者访问。

馬幣走貶‧全利資源首當其衝

馬幣走貶‧全利資源首當其衝
Created 08/24/2013 - 11:42
(吉隆坡23日訊)馬幣走貶,全利資源(QL,7084,主板消費品組)預期旗下業務將面對衝擊,惟飼料價格回跌加上雞蛋售價轉佳,今年禽畜業務賺幅有望回歸正常水平。

該公司董事經理謝松坤在股東大會後向記者表示,若馬幣兌美元在年底貶值至3.3令吉,即全年貶值達10%,旗下業務勢必受到影響,惟所幸的是,目前雞蛋售價改善,該可抵銷其衝擊。

他指出,相較去年的表現,今年旗下業務的賺幅趨於“正常化”,並期望該情況能持續至整個2014財政年。

“去年美國所生產的大豆與玉米等飼料供應大跌,使該類商品價格大漲,進而增加畜農成本並拉低賺幅;而現在因價格高吸引市場其他供應商增加產量,價格最終回跌。”

YTL Power : No Dividends Again (MKE)

YTL Power International
Hold (unchanged)
Share price: MYR1.59
Target price: MYR1.75 (from MYR1.70)
No Dividends Again

 Overall in line. 4QFY13 core net profit of MYR341m (+5% YoY, +54% QoQ) brings FY13 net profit to MYR1,027m (-13% YoY), 97% of our and 94% of consensus forecasts respectively. There remains no quarterly dividend. The risk-reward from a privatization remains uncompelling in our view. Maintain HOLD, with a higher target price of MYR1.75 (to reflect an increase in treasury shares).

Mixed segmentals. Malaysia’s (power plants) 4QFY13 pretax profit declined 9% YoY due to an impairment of receivables. Singapore’s (Power Seraya) pretax profit jumped 185% YoY on improved margins due to lower operating expenses, and the lack of fuel trading losses (Power Seraya likely incurred fuel trading losses in 4QFY12).

Benalec : Toning things down (CIMB)

Benalec Holdings
Current RM1.26
Target RM1.68
Toning things down

 Despite lower land sale gains in FY6/13, its full-year net profit was in line at 97% of our forecast. The timing of incoming land sales in Melaka underpins FY14 EPS, but prospects in Tanjung Piai (Iskandar) still hinge on the much-awaited signing of the maiden contract.

We hope that the SPA for the Tanjung Piai reclamation job concludes by end-2013. Pending more clarity, we cut our assumptions for Tanjung Piai and raise our RNAV target discount from 20% to 30%, which leads to a lower target price. It is still worth a trade given a likely pick-up in newsflow within the next three months. Trading Buy maintained. The stock is not an outperform due to timing risks.

AirAsia X : A Smooth Take-Off (RHB)

AirAsia X
Target Price: MYR1.65
Price: MYR1.19
A Smooth Take-Off

AAX’s 1HFY13 numbers were well within our – but below consensus – estimates. It posted positive revenue growth in tandem with increased flight frequencies and improved yields, as its routes increasingly mature. We are upbeat on AAX’s potential growth and maintain our BUY recommendation with a MYR1.65 FV, pending more updates from the analyst briefing later today.

KLCC Property Holdings : 1H13 earnings in line but lower dividends (CIMB)

KLCC Property Holdings
Current RM6.12
Target RM7.00
1H13 earnings in line but lower dividends

 KLCCP's 1H13 core net profit of RM274.2m was in line with our estimate, at 45% of our full-year forecast. However, 1H dividend per share of 12 sen accounted for only 38% of our full-year forecast.

We cut our DDM-based target price to RM7.00 from RM8.00, after reducing our dividend payout assumptions, while keeping our WACC at 7.1%. We maintain our Outperform call, with the injection of KLCCP's other assets such as Menara Dayabumi into the REIT as a re-rating catalyst. The injection will also lower taxes and improve earnings.

Supermax : Super Laggard (MIB)

Supermax Corporation Berhad
52 week px range MYR1.79 – MYR2.44
Share price (MYR) MYR2.29
Super Laggard

Background: Supermax Corporation Bhd (SUCB) is leading international manufacturer, distributer and marketer of high quality medical gloves. The group currently exports to over 145 countries in the Americas, Europe, Asia and Oceania under its own brands like Supermax, Aurelia, Maxter, Medic-dent and Supergloves. SUCB is currently the second largest rubber gloves manufacturer in Malaysia, with an annual capacity of 17.8b pieces or ~11% of the world’s supply of rubber gloves. It has nine manufacturing plants in Malaysia and six distribution centres in USA, Brazil, Europe, Australia and Canada, in addition to 250 independent distributors worldwide.

IOI Corporation : A play on its property demerger (CIMB)

IOI Corporation
Current RM5.30
Target RM5.90
A play on its property demerger

 IOI Corp’s FY13 core net profit was in line and came in 1% above our forecast but 6% below consensus. The slight positive variance against our forecast came from better manufacturing and property earnings which helped to offset higher-than-expected estates costs.

However, the group’s final dividend of 8.5sen was 2.5sen higher than our estimate. We lower our FY14-15 EPS by 3% after imputing in the higher-than-expected estates costs in FY13. The earnings revisions lead to a 2% cut in our SOP-based target price. We retain our Trading Buy call and see short-term catalysts from the property demerger exercise expected to be completed in 4Q.

AirAsia Q2 net profit down 62%

AirAsia Q2 net profit down 62%

PETALING JAYA: AirAsia Bhd’s net profit in the second quarter ended June 30 fell 61.9% to RM58.35bil compared with RM153.13bil a year earlier, but sales grew 5.48% during the period to RM1.25bil from RM1.18bil.

Its operating profit showed a 25.54% improvement to RM243.94mil from RM197.46mil.

The low cost carrier’s earnings per share (EPS) was lower at 2.1 sen compared with 5.5 sen in the previous three-month period, it told Bursa Malaysia.

MISC : Shrinking with the downturn (CIMB)

MISC Bhd
Current RM5.14
Target RM4.68
Shrinking with the downturn

 MISC’s 1H13 core net profit was in line as it accounted for 49.5% of ourfull-year profit estimate. MISC is planning a further reduction in its fleet of petroleum and chemical tanker ships to manage losses, while its LNG fleet will also shrink as Petronas is unlikely to renew all contracts.

We raise FY13-15 EPS by 1-9% as we increase the tank terminals profit estimates, partially offset by lower LNG profits. Our target price has been raised on the back of a stronger US$, but remains at an unchanged 30% discount to its SOP, on its poor structural outlook. We keep our Underperform call with de-rating catalysts being the still tough cyclical shipping business and expected profit declines at its LNG crown jewel.

Malaysian Airline - Weak yield outlook, but trunaround progressing

Malaysian Airline -
Price Target:0.34
Last Price:0.34
Weak yield outlook, but trunaround progressing

- We maintain our HOLD call on MAS at a higher fair value of RM0.34/share (from RM0.33/share previously) as we roll over our valuation to FY14F. Our valuation still pegs MAS at 0.9x PBV, in line with industry.

- MAS reported 2Q13 core net loss of RM113mil (excluding RM68mil unrealised forex loss), bringing its 1H13 core net loss to RM375mil. Our and consensus net loss of RM255mil and RM237mil respectively for FY13F looks achievable. We think MAS can turn in profits in 2H13, which sees seasonally stronger demand.

CB Industrial Product : Impressive core engineering profits (DBSV)

CB Industrial Product
BUY RM2.87
KLCI : 1,778.36
Price Target : 12-Month RM 3.10 (Prev RM 3.20)
Impressive core engineering profits

2Q13 net profit of RM18.9m below expectations
Strong engineering contributions partly offset by losses in plantation
To capitalize on demand for Modipalm mills with capacity expansion
Maintain Buy with RM3.10 TP

Below expectations. CBIP’s 2Q13 net profit fell 20% y-o-y to RM18.9m as revenue softened by 4% to RM145.4m. This brings 1H13 net profit to RM37.5m, which is below expectations. 2Q13 earnings were mainly dragged by lower contributions from the special purpose vehicle segment and losses from its palm oil operations (resulting from lower CPO). Positively, the Group registered impressive profits from its core engineering and contracting (E&C) segment. E&C pretax profit is highest since 2006. Net cash grew 60% q-o-q to RM0.40/share.

Guan Chong : Earnings risks ahead (DBSV)

Guan Chong
FULLY VALUED RM1.65
KLCI : 1,745.42
Price Target : 12-Month RM 1.35
Earnings risks ahead

Weak 2Q13 earnings reports by industry peers suggest lower profits q-o-q for Guan Chong Depressed margins due to weak selling prices (especially for cocoa powder) pose earnings risk
Maintain Fully Valued with RM1.35 TP (pegged to 7.5x FY14F FD EPS)

Industry headwinds. Recently released financial reports by JB Foods and Petra Foods indicate the cocoa ingredient processing industry is still facing tough times. In the Apr-Jun quarter, excluding lumpy inventory adjustments/exceptional items, JB Foods saw its net loss widen to RM8.5m (from RM1.5m net loss in 1Q13), while Petra Foods’ cocoa ingredient business posted USD25m operating net loss (vs. USD18m net loss in 1Q13). Both companies attributed the poor results to weaker ASP (likely the case for cocoa powder products).

MISC a Long Term Recovery Story



Dah Chong Hong : Takeaways From NDR (UOBKH)

Dah Chong Hong Holdings
Share Price HK$6.15
Target Price HK$6.00
Takeaways From NDR

We did a NDR with Dah Chong Hong last Friday. Management believes profit margins from car sales in China have stabilised since 1H13 and will return to the normal mid-single-digit levels in due time. The company is shifting its focus to after-sales services, including 4S dealerships and car service stations. We believe negatives have been priced in. Maintain HOLD. Target price: HK$6.00. Entry price is HK$5.20.

Parkson Retail 2Q13: Not Out Of The Woods Yet (UOBKH)

Parkson Retail
Share Price HK$3.52
Target Price HK$2.47
2Q13: Not Out Of The Woods Yet

Parkson’s 1H13 results fell short of expectations, with net profit falling 38% yoy to Rmb325m vs our forecast of a 19% yoy decline. This was mainly due to: a) slower recovery in SSS, b) jump in rental and staff costs mostly from new and managed stores acquired from parent, c) share option expense of Rmb12.9m, and d) Rmb15m losses from e-commerce. Cut 2013-15 estimates by 22-30% and lower target price to HK$2.47. Maintain SELL.

Friday, August 23, 2013

連3季未派息‧楊忠禮電力評級不變

連3季未派息‧楊忠禮電力評級不變
Created 08/23/2013 - 17:44
(吉隆坡23日訊)楊忠禮電力(YTLPWR,6742,主板基建計劃組)第四季核心淨利按年揚5%、按季升54%至3億4千100萬令吉,基於近期缺乏重估催化劑,分析員維持評級不變,並對其連續3季未派息感失望。

第四季主要受新加坡西拉雅能源(Power Seraya)與英國韋塞克斯水務增長,其中新加坡業務稅前盈利按年增長185%,英國因調高水費按年揚21%;大馬發電業務則因撥備而按年跌9%。

大馬YES寬頻業務則按季擴大虧損38%至7千600萬令吉,全年虧損擴大至2億6千900萬令吉。

馬股超賣‧聯昌:谷底垂釣機會現

馬股超賣‧聯昌:谷底垂釣機會現
Created 08/23/2013 - 17:19
(吉隆坡23日訊)是時候進場買股了?本週馬股因區域外資大量外竄而疲弱不堪,富時綜指在本週前4個交易日合計下挫逾68點或4%,崩盤論危言聳聽,投資者大都不敢輕舉妄動,可聯昌研究相信:投資者趁低吸納機會來了!

長期展望仍正面

聯昌分析員說,儘管大馬面對許多急需解決的宏觀利空,但長期展望仍然正面,且相信政府將在2014年預算案中設法解決問題,所以認為本週外資拋售潮也許是投資者進行谷底垂釣(Bottom Fishing)的機會。

Instacom posts higher Q2 pre-tax profit

Instacom posts higher Q2 pre-tax profit
2013/08/23

Instacom Group Bhd, a Kuching-based solutions provider for the telecommunications industry, continued its winning streak to record a higher pre-tax profit of RM7.63 million and a better revenue of RM36.3 million for the second quarter ended June 30, 2013.

In the first quarter, it reported a pre-tax profit of RM6.96 million and revenue of RM30.2 million.

Chief executive officer Anne Kung said the strong financial achievements bode well for the group to book in profits for the current financial year, against strong demand from local major telecommunications providers.

东尼: 净利失色 亚航次季相当艰难

东尼: 净利失色 亚航次季相当艰难
Created 08/23/2013 - 12:16
(新加坡22日讯)亚洲航空集团(AirAsia)总执行长丹斯里东尼费南德斯指出,亚洲航空(AIRASIA,5099,主板贸服股)次季是相当“艰难”的季度,造成净利表现失色。

东尼今天出席“2013年东协网络论坛”记者会后,回应《南洋商报》时直说:“市场有时候会把焦点放在错误的地方”。

他表示,虽然亚航次季净利下滑,但营运盈利扬升约20%,况且这是一个“艰难”的季度。

泰国印尼表现强劲

他点出,大马市场次季经过一场全国大选和东马的苏禄军事件,许多人为此选择不出游,难免影响次季表现。

上市以来第一次 ICAP 派9.5 仙特别股息

上市以来第一次 ICAP 派9.5 仙特别股息
Created 08/23/2013 - 07:32
(吉隆坡22日讯)资本投资(ICAP,5108,主板关闭式基金)今日宣布,派发每股9.5仙的特别股息。

公司在文告中指出,这项特别股息的除权日为9月19日。

这是自资本投资在2005年10月19日上市以来第一项股息,将对大部分投资者带来惊喜。

虽然这不是强制性活动,但是通过谨慎考量之后,董事部决定派发股息。

接下来,董事部与基金经理及投资顾问,将持续为股东寻求长期利益,并确保该基金持续取得良好表现,让股东可在现有投资目标上获益。

AirAsia X : Narrower losses as expected (CIMB)

AirAsia X
Current RM1.19
Target RM1.47
Narrower losses as expected

 AAX reported a core net loss of RM28m in 2Q13, or RM16m profit for 1H13, which, although only 12.5% of our full-year forecast, is broadly in line with expectations since 60% of the profits are typically booked in the 4Q and the 3Q is also usually profitable.

We maintain Outperform with an unchanged SOP-based target price pegging 11x CY14 P/E for the KUL hub (sector average) and a separate Bali hub valuation of 8x CY14 P/E. We retain our forecasts pending today’s conference call. Re-rating catalysts include rapid expansion at its KUL hub and the opening of two new hubs in Bangkok and Bali.

YTL FY13 net profit up 13%, main contributors properties, hotels, power station

PETALING JAYA: YTL Corp Bhd recorded a net profit of RM1.33bil for the financial year ended June 30, 2013 (FY13), 13% higher than the RM1.18bil in FY12, contributed mainly by the group’s property development, hotels and power station operation and maintainence.

For FY13’s fourth quarter, the group achieved RM389.9mil in net profit, 19% higher than RM327.1mil last year. Revenue for the quarter came in at RM5.03bil, 1.2% lower than the RM5.09bil registered in the corresponding period a year ago.

The utilities division, still the largest contributor within the group, saw improvements during the last quarter of the year despite a provision for impairment of other receivables in the power generation sector that impacted performance.

YTL Power : Better times ahead for WiMax (CIMB)

YTL Power
Current RM1.59
Target RM2.55
Better times ahead for WiMax

 At 102% of our FY13 and 104% of consensus, FY13 earnings met expectations. Revenue was flat from lower prices of fuel oil at its trading division while earnings were dragged down by provisions for power generation.

No dividends were declared for the quarter. We leave our FY14-15 EPS and SOP-based target price unchanged at RM2.55. Reiterate Outperform with catalysts expected from a turnaround of its broadband earnings and possible acquisitions of utility assets.

Interra Resources : Better-than-expected 2Q13 profit (S&P)

Interra Resources Limited
Price: SGD0.47
Date: August 21, 2013
Results Review
Better-than-expected 2Q13 profit on higher revenue, efficiency gains. Interra’s share of oil production jumped 107.8% YoY leading to revenue growth of 43.3% YoY and offsetting a 7.9% YoY drop in its weighted average selling price (ASP) of oil. Bottomline expanded 776% YoY with the increased production helping to lower unit production costs. As such, operating profit margin increased to 32.4% from 15.6% in 1Q13 and 9.9% in 2012.

Singapore Press Holdings Ltd : Is there light at the end of the tunnel for media?

22/8/2013 – Analysts say while the core business of Singapore Press Holdings is expected to remain muted, its REIT portfolio will offer some stability.

According to a Reuters survey, 6 analysts have a SELL call and 8 a HOLD call, with only 1 BUY and 2 OUTPERFORM recommendations.

Price targets vary from a low of S$3.50 to a high of S$4.99.

The company reported these financial results for Q3 FY13 on July 15:

Malaysia Bulk Carriers : Dry bulk segment still bleeding (MIDF)

Malaysia Bulk Carriers
Price (21 August 2013) RM1.75
Target Price RM1.90
Maintain NEUTRAL
Dry bulk segment still bleeding

INVESTMENT HIGHLIGHTS
1H13 net profit was below expectations, mainly due to continued losses in the dry bulk division.
Tanker segment posted a small PBT gain of RM2.1m in 2Q13 on the back of better freight rate and higher hire days.
POSH associate earnings contribution was higher at RM18.2m in 2Q13 against RM13.4m in 1Q13. The IPO debut of the associate is expected to be completed in the final quarter of this year.
Maintain NEUTRAL with unchanged TP of RM1.90, pegging it to Sum-of-Parts method.

AirAsia : Lower yields (DBSV)

AirAsia
HOLD RM2.98
KLCI : 1,744.85
Price Target : 12-month RM 2.90

Lower yields
2Q13 core net profit below expectation
Yields lower with intense competition from regional and domestic carriers
Cut FY13F net profit following weak 2Q13 results
Maintain HOLD rating and RM2.90 TP

Highlights
Weak 2Q13 results. AirAsia booked RM94.6m core net profit (- 5.8% y-o-y; -31% q-o-q), taking 1H13 core profit to RM232.2m (+6.7% y-o-y), below our expectation. The key variance against our forecast was lower than expected yields.

Malaysian Airlines : Operating environment remains challenging (DBSV)

Malaysian Airlines
FULLY VALUED RM0.34
KLCI : 1,745.42
Price Target : 12 month RM 0.30 (Prev RM 0.35)
Operating environment remains challenging

2Q13 net loss of RM239m below expectations
Competition from regional and domestic carriers exert downward pressure on yields
Increasing net loss projection for FY13F
Fully Valued with RM0.30 TP

Highlights
Below expectations. Malaysia Airlines (MAS) recorded 2Q13 net loss of RM238.7m (excluding forex loss of RM68.3m and fair value gain on derivatives of RM5.6m) - below our expectations. This brings 1H13 net loss to RM500.5m (4% y-o-y improvement).

YTL Land : Sentul to the fore (DBSV)

YTL Land
BUY RM1.02
KLCI : 1,720.37
Price Target : 12-month RM1.40 (prev. RM1.60)
Sentul to the fore

Results above expectations, Capers bearing fruit
Strong take-up for Fennel; prime beneficiary of MRT
Maintain Buy, tweak SOP-based TP to RM1.40

Highlights
Above expectations. 4QFY13 net profit came in at RM18m, bringing full-year earnings to RM26m (89% higher than our forecast due to faster than expected construction for Capers@Sentul East). Capers super-structure is already up which should see further acceleration in earnings recognition to help cushion the void left by completion of Sentosa Cove@Singapore villas.

Parkson - Expect future payoff from continued expansions in China

Parkson -
Price (16 Aug ‘13) RM3.67
Target Price RM4.00
Expect future payoff from continued expansions in China

INVESTMENT HIGHLIGHTS
Parkson Retail Group’s 1HFY13 gross sales proceeds and operating revenues were up 4.9%yoy and 2.0%yoy respectively.
The rise was attributable to six new store openings and the acquisition of four managed stores.
Nonetheless, operating and net profits fell -32.0%yoy and - 38.0%yoy respectively given that the incurrence of operating expenses relating to the new openings and store acquisitions.
Maintain NEUTRAL on PHB as the transient growth deceleration in China has been fully factored in.

Genting Hong Kong: Hit by higher expenses (DBSV)

Genting Hong Kong:
UNDER REVIEW; US$0.425/ HK$3.40;
Hit by higher expenses
Price Target : under review

•1H13 results fell short of expectations, dragged by SCL
•Strong growth at RWM and NCL to persist
•Recommendation, earnings estimates & TP under review

Highlights
Below expectations. 1H13 core net profit came in at US$26m (+3% y-o-y ex-contribution from discontinued operations, -84% h-o-h due to seasonality), constituting 11-17% of our and consensus estimates. In addition to a US$10m tax charge in 1H13, SCL also fell short due to higher expenses: operating costs ex-fuel per capacity days +18% y-o-y, depreciation +33% (refurbishment & drydock for Gemini & Genting World), and promotion costs +12%.

曾淵滄專欄 23.08.13:星洲房策 港難抄足

新加坡總理李顯龍在8月18日,於國慶群眾大會上宣佈,他保證每月家庭收入僅1,000坡元(約6,000港元)的家庭,都買得起一房一廳的組屋(實用面積約500平方呎),在香港傳媒引起一場辯論:香港該不該學新加坡?能不能學新加坡?別的可以不學,就只學房屋政策?政務司司長不是剛剛於一個月前,前往新加坡參觀新加坡的公共房屋規劃,梁振英是不是想學?

還記得四叔說,香港單是建築費每平方呎得用3,000元,那麼,就算土地免費,500平方呎不就得150萬元?香港月入6,000港元的家庭,怎能買得起150萬元的房屋?很肯定的是,新加坡的建築成本遠低於香港,但新加坡人均收入卻遠高於香港,一般新加坡人的工資不比香港低,如何建廉價的組屋?

CNOOC : Strong results beat expectations (CIMB)

CNOOC
Current HK$14.82
Target HK$18.00
Strong results beat expectations

 CNOOC’s growth engine is on track to restart. Its current valuations still pose a good entry point to accumulate the stock.

1H13 EPS was 7% above at 57% of our full-year forecast due to volume growth and lower tax. CNOOC is positioned to stage a comeback with volume growth in FY14 and FY15. Our target price is based on 9.8x CY14 P/E (2007-2010 historical average), which implies an upside of 22% with a dividend yield of 3.3%. We maintain CNOOC as our top pick in the China oil space. Maintain Outperform with new projects launch and appraisal and discovery success as catalysts.

CapitaRetail China Trust : Worth a re-look (DBSV)

CapitaRetail China Trust
BUY S$1.38
STI : 3,108.99
Price Target : 12-month S$ 1.60 (Prev S$ 1.75)
Worth a re-look
• Strong operating metrics underscores AEI success
• Acquisition of Grand Canyon Mall likely accretive
• Maintain Buy, TP revised to S$1.60

Coming into its own. The recent strong 2Q results highlighted that operating metrics are tracking closely to sales growth in China. This demonstrates CRCT’s successful key asset enhancement initiatives which had resulted in expanding tenant sales as well as shopper traffic, resulting in the trust’s ability to boost rental reversions. This solid track record bodes well for its upcoming AEI at Minzhongleyuan Mall in Wuhan. We believe its ability to generate better asset returns through this route would provide the trust with a strong inbuilt engine for growth and catalyst for share price performance going forward.

Geo Energy shares surge 18.3% on Jim Rogers' buying

WORLD-FAMOUS investor Jim Rogers, who lives in Singapore, has made his first purchase of shares of Geo Energy Resources today.

A Non-Executive Director of the company, Rogers acquired 1,700,000 shares at S$0.355 each for a total of S$603,500.

The share price closed up 6.5 cents,or 18.3%, at 42.5 cents.

The stock traded on massive volume of 152.9 million shares, which was about 15X the average daily volume in the past three months.

美債息再飈 港高息股逆市挫

高息股捱沽
美債息再飈 港高息股逆市挫
領匯下試1年低 息口敏感股難樂觀
儲局會議紀錄顯示年內預期收水,美國10年期債息抽高,升越2.9厘關口,本港高息股沽壓沉重,領匯(00823)跌1.7%創近1年低位,煤氣(00003)業績差借勢急回。

美債息直撲3厘 菲星馬股市捱沽 盧比續尋底

美債息直撲3厘 菲星馬股市捱沽 盧比續尋底

【本報綜合報道】美國聯儲局最新會議紀錄顯示,大部份理事認同聯儲局主席伯南克年底前退市的路線,但對於何時展開退市計劃卻未有提供新線索,加上有理事反對將作為加息門檻的失業率由6.5%再下調,令下月退市疑慮揮之不去。美國10期債息昨一度抽高至2.93厘兩年新高;亞太新興國股匯市則再被震散。

美國聯儲局於當地時間公佈上月議息紀錄,當中接近所有與會理事均支持伯南克年底前減買債的收水時間表,但同意不多加言辭解釋以免市場過份解讀。其中有「一些」(few)理事要求忍耐,其他則要求盡快減少買債。有分析認為,會議紀錄仍沒有顯示出聯儲局計劃於何時開始減少買債,在不確定因素仍未消除下,引致美債息昨日亞洲市早段一度急升。

Thursday, August 22, 2013

CitySpring unit to acquire 100% of OpenNet for $126mil

CitySpring unit to acquire 100% of OpenNet for $126mil
WRITTEN BY THE EDGE  
THURSDAY, 22 AUGUST 2013 17:17

CitySpring Infrastructure Management, the trustee-manager of CitySpring Infrastructure Trust, said that CityNet Infrastructure Management, a wholly-owned subsidiary of CitySpring, has agreed to acquire 100% of OpenNet for a total cash consideration of $126 million. This transaction is subject to regulatory approvals.

OpenNet designs, builds and manages an open, high quality fibre network for Singapore’s Next Generation Nationwide Broadband Network (Next Gen NBN).

The shareholders of OpenNet are SingTel Interactive, Axia NGNetworks Asia, SPH Net and SPT Net, with equity interests of approximately 30%, 30%, 25% and 15% respectively.

AirAsia 2Q profit down by more than half

AirAsia 2Q profit down by more than half
Business & Markets 2013
Written by Cynthia Blemin of theedgemalaysia.com    
Thursday, 22 August 2013 11:05

KUALA LUMPUR: Budget carrier AIRASIA BHD []'s second quarter (2Q) numbers came in below expectations as net profit fell 61.9% to RM58.35 million from RM153.1 million a year ago, partly due to higher expenses, foreign exchange losses and deferred taxes.

Revenue rose a marginal 5.9% year-on-year to RM1.25 billion for the quarter ended June 30 (2QFY13).

Maybulk 2Q net profit surges to RM13m

Maybulk 2Q net profit surges to RM13m
Business & Markets 2013
Written by Fatin Rasyiqah Mustaza of theedgemalaysia.com    
Thursday, 22 August 2013 11:13

KUALA LUMPUR: MALAYSIAN BULK CARRIERS BHD [] (Maybulk) saw net profit surge to RM13.1 million for the second quarter ended June 30 of the 2013 financial year (2QFY13) on improved charter rates, lower expenses and finance costs as well as significant contribution from associate, PACC Offshore Services Holdings Pte Ltd  (POSH).

赤字高依赖原产品出口 大马恐成下个狙击目标

赤字高依赖原产品出口 大马恐成下个狙击目标
Created 08/22/2013 - 08:20
(吉隆坡21日讯)美联储收紧宽松政策(QE)冲击亚洲市场,随着印尼盾和印度卢比遭大幅抛售后,市场担忧情势蔓延整个区域,赤字高及依赖原产品出口的马来西亚,恐将成为投资者下一个狙击目标。

根据路透社报道,印尼周内因经常项目赤字导致股汇市场双双崩溃,马泰两国被视为东南亚内最脆弱的国家,令吉及泰铢或进一步受压。

野村证券(Nomura)货币分析员普拉蒂指出:“目前情况有许多与97/98年亚洲金融风暴相似之处。我们已看到两个国家(印尼和印度)被击倒,现在大家就会开始想到下一个目标。

MAS set to make profits by end-2014, turnaround plan gaining momentum and support

MAS set to make profits by end-2014, turnaround plan gaining momentum and support

BY LEONG HUNG YEE
HUNGYEE@THESTAR.COM.MY

PETALING JAYA: Malaysia Airlines (MAS) is on track to become profitable by end-2014, as its turnaround plan gains traction and receives the backing of its unions, according to group chief executive officer (CEO) Ahmad Jauhari Yahya.

“It is gaining momentum and going in the right direction. We are generating positive cashflow now. We want to build sustainable profits, hopefully, by the end of 2014. There is still a lot to do,” he said at an update briefing on its business plan introduced in late-2011.

Malaysia Smelting looks at expanding mining ops

Malaysia Smelting looks at expanding mining ops

BY HANIM ADNAN
NEM@THESTAR.COM.MY

KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysia Smelting Corp Bhd (MSC), the world’s second largest tin metal producer, is looking at expanding its mining operations in Malaysia and worldwide, with the focus on three minerals namely tin, tungsten and titanium, said its group chief operating officer (mining) Mohamed Yakub Ismail.

He said: “For these new mining investments, the MSC Group is interested to set up joint ventures particularly with the global tin mining players for projects in Malaysia.”

Malaysian Bulk Carriers : Riding on O&G boom (DBSV)

Malaysian Bulk Carriers
BUY RM1.75
KLCI : 1,744.85
Price Target : 12-Month RM 2.10
Riding on O&G boom

2Q13 result was within expectations
Impressive earnings from POSH set to drive a successful IPO in Singapore
Maintain BUY with RM2.10 TP

Highlights
2Q13 in line. MBC reported 2Q13 earnings of RM13.1m (+45% qo- q, +>1000% y-o-y), taking 1H13 profit to RM22.1m (-31% y-o-y) which is 45% of our FY13 projection. The strong performance was largely attributable to the impressive earnings from its 21%-owned OSV associate, PACC Offshore Services Holdings (POSH) which contributed RM18.2m (+36% q-o-q, +387% y-o-y) – the highest since FY10.

Shelter from India &Indonesia (CIMB)

Shelter from India &Indonesia
Investors have turned jittery on emerging market exposure, with India and Indonesia being the key concerns. While Singapore is traditionally viewed as a safe harbour, the threat of rising interest rates means that the usual refuge of REITs and telcos is not that safe either.

 To compound the difficulty of stock picking, 2Q13’s results showed weak earnings momentum. We begin with a process of elimination, crossing out stocks with large India or Indonesia exposures, and stocks that would lose out in a rising rate environment. Our top picks are CAPL, DBS, EZI, FR, KEP, M1, OEL, SUN, THBEV and UOL. Singapore is rated Neutral with an end-2013 FSSTI target (bottom-up) unchanged at 3,400.

Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust: Weakening IDR likely to affect NAV (OCBC)

Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust:
Fair value S$0.44
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.036
versus: Current price S$0.455

Weakening IDR likely to affect NAV
• IDR has fallen 7% vs. SGD since end Jun
• Val. of properties in SGD likely affected
• Raise discount rate; Reduce FV to S$0.44

The IDR has weakened some 7.4% against the SGD since 28 Jun, with SGD1 buying IDR8558.25 as at 21 Aug, compared to IDR7922.96 on 28 Jun (Bloomberg). We understand that only ~65% of the cash flow from the properties for 2H13 are likely hedged for depreciation of IDR against SGD. In addition, the weakening of the IDR against the SGD does not bode well for the valuation of LMIRT’s properties in SGD terms, which means that NAV would likely be affected negatively. To reflect a higher risk profile for LMRT, especially given the outflow of funds from emerging markets, we incorporate a higher cost of equity of 10.8%, versus 9.7% previously, and trim our DDM-based FV to S$0.44 from S$0.49. Maintain HOLD.

Genting Hong Kong 1H13: Asian Cruise The Weak Link (UOBKH)

Genting Hong Kong
Share Price US$0.425
Target Price US$0.41
1H13: Asian Cruise The Weak Link

GENHK posted a 1H13 core net profit of US$23.2m (-10.2% yoy) – below expectations, as Star Asia disappointed with an operating loss of US$14.9m. Hence, we are reviewing our forecasts pending an analyst briefing today. Nevertheless, on a positive note, NCL and RWM have delivered operationally firm earnings, and GENHK’s ability to pare its NCL stake should lift its SOTP. Maintain HOLD with a target price of US$0.41. Entry price: S$0.40.

Asian Pay Television Trust : Steering a steady course (CIMB)

Asian Pay Television Trust
Current S$0.88
Target S$1.00
Steering a steady course

 APTT reported results for the stub period of 32 days from listing to 30 June with no surprises. Its continued steadydelivery of dividends will help build a track record and should lead to yield compression inthe medium-term.

1HFY13 EBITDA was 50% of our full year forecast and in line. A distribution of 4.8 Scts per unit was declared and guidance of 4.13 Scts per unit was affirmed for 2HFY13. We reiterate our Outperform rating and DDM-based (COE 11.2%, LTG 1%) target price. We expect that the stabilisation in the Singapore yield environment and establishment of a track record for dividend payments will catalyse the units.

Boilermech Holdings - 1QFY14 Misses Target On Higher Expenses

Boilermech Holdings -
Price Target:1.70
Last Price:1.75
1QFY14 Misses Target On Higher Expenses

Boilermech’s 1QFY14 results fell slightly below our forecasts, with its MYR6.3m earnings accounting for about 21% of our full-year estimate while  its  topline  of  MYR51.5m  clocked  in  at  24%  of  our  full-year  target.  The  lower  bottomline  was  due  to  higher  operating  expenses  in 1QFY14.  On a quarterly basis, 1QFY14’s PBT of MYR8.5m was 25% lower compared to its normalised 4QFY13 results. Boilermech is still in a net cash position, with net cash per share of 25.6 sen as at end-June. As the stock has appreciated by 73% since our upgrade in March, we are downgrading its rating from Buy to NEUTRAL, with an unchanged FV of MYR1.70, premised on a 14x P/E.  

Malaysian Airline System - A Smoother Flight

Malaysian Airline System -
Price Target:0.34
Last Price:0.345
A Smoother Flight

Malaysia  Airlines’  (MAS)  2QFY13  results  came  in  stronger  as  we expected,  although  it  was  still  in  the  red.  The airline’s more robust operating  stats  boosted  its  to  and  bottom  lines.  MAS  will  continue  to focus  on  its  revenue  growth  to  improve  profitability.  As  our  new earnings  forecasts  are  prompted  by  its  EBITDA  shortfall,  we  derive  a new MYR0.34 FV and downgrade MAS to NEUTRAL.

- Numbers  have  improved.  MAS  reported  a  2QFY13  core  net  loss  of MYR200.5m  (-41.1%  q-o-q  ,  -3.0%  y-o-y),  were  largely  within  our  and street’s  expectations.  Despite  reporting  a  net  loss  for  the  quarter,  it posted  positive  EBITDA  of  MYR119.6m  vs  a  loss  of  MYR60.5m  in 1QFY13.  The  improvement  was  mainly  attributed  to:  i)  stronger operating  stats,  ii)  improved  cost  per  ASK  (CASK),  and  iii)  a  higher aircraft utilization rate.

PARKSON HOLDINGS BERHAD - China Continues To Drag

PARKSON HOLDINGS BERHAD -
Price Target:4.17
Last Price:3.71
China Continues To Drag

Parkson Retail Group (PRG) contributes 66% and 82% of Parkson Holdings’ (PHB) FY13F revenue and earnings respectively. To gauge PHB’s upcoming quarter performance, we are reviewing PRG’s 2QFY13 results (FYE Dec) which registered revenue of CNY1025.8m (+3.2% y-o-y, -20.4% q-o-q), and PATAMI of CNY98m (-53.7% y-o-y, -56.8% q-o-q). Due to another poor quarter attributed to higher costs and weaker discretionary spending in China, we expect PHB’s 1QFY14 results to reveal a similar sentiment. We are optimistic on some support from Parkson Retail Asia (PRA) which could uplift PHB’s results. Reiterating our Neutral recommendation with TP of RM4.17, we do like Parkson for its i.) strong balance sheet – net cash of c.RM1bn, ii.) growth plans to expand PRA’s contribution and its property and investment divisions which would see more value in the medium-term, and iii.) catalyst of most Asean governments encouraging consumption growth.

Healthcare REITs: Expecting growth in 2H13 (OCBC)

Healthcare REITs: Expecting growth in 2H13
Within the healthcare REITs space, both First REIT (FREIT) and Parkway Life REIT (PLREIT) recently reported 2Q13 results which were in-line with market expectations. Looking ahead, we expect their 2H13 DPU to be boosted by new properties acquired over the past 1-3 months. Despite the volatility in the IDR and JPY vis-à-vis the SGD, there has been minimal impact on FREIT and PLREIT due to a favourable lease structure and hedging strategies adopted, respectively. Both healthcare REITs are also seeking to mitigate their interest rate risks. But we maintain NEUTRAL on the healthcare REITs sub-sector given its pricey valuations and negative sentiment surrounding interest rate sensitive instruments.

曾淵滄專欄 22.08.13:大鱷招數出神入化

恒指仍然在下跌,但恐慌程度已有改善,內地A股已站穩;A股站穩助恒指由低位反彈約200點,收市時只跌152點。

昨日我已經說過,印尼股市、印尼貨幣幣值的下跌,不是最近幾日突然發生的事,為甚麼前日股市會突然急跌?為甚麼昨日多家報章,會同時刊登印尼盾匯價創新低、股市下跌的新聞?說穿了,是西方大通訊社向全世界傳媒發新聞稿,傳媒收到新聞,照登不誤。

今日,國際大鱷的手法,已到了出神入化的境界,可以通過信貸評級機構創造出歐債危機,可以通過西方通訊社,製造新亞洲金融風暴危機的感覺,我們絕對要打醒精神應付。

CNOOC : 1H13: Net Profit Of Rmb34.4b, Up 8.2% yoy, And 13% Above Consensus (UOBKH)

China National Offshore Oil Company
Share Price HK$14.82
Target Price HK$14.00
1H13: Net Profit Of Rmb34.4b, Up 8.2% yoy, And 13% Above Consensus

CNOOC reported 1H13 net profit of Rmb34.4b, up 8.2% yoy, and 13% above consensus. This was mainly due to a higher-than-expected earnings contribution from Nexen and lower-than-expected all-in cost increase. From 2H13 onwards, we expect to see earnings risk from the Nexen deal, oil price volatility and cost inflation. Maintain SELL. Target price: HK$14.00.

Jauhari to stay until MAS turns around

Jauhari to stay until MAS turns around

By Bilqis Bahari
bbahari@mediaprima.com.my
2013/08/22

MALAYSIAN Airline System Bhd (MAS) group chief executive officer Ahmad Jauhari Yahya plans to remain at the helm until the national carrier returns to profitability.
Ahmad Jauhari brushed off talk of the possibility of his contract being terminated earlier as mere speculation.

As far as the chief executive officer (CEO)'s contract term with the airline is concerned, he said that it is private and confidential.

Pan-United : Great leap forward (CIMB)

Pan-United
Current S$0.89
Target S$1.08
Great leap forward

 PUCintendsto boostits revenue across the region by increasing its stake in CXP.This decision is probably the most important one management has to make in recent times to lock inthe company’s longer-term prospects.

Its latest stake upsize in CXP has the potential to add 14-15% to our FY14-15 EPS after accounting for interest costs from any debt taken. Our target price accordingly climbs, still based on residual income. Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral with catalysts expected from earnings contributions from very chunky MRT projects in the BBR segment and its improved earnings profile.

信置由今年高位挫三成 地產股高息股步入熊市價

【收水恐慌】

美國退市未殺埋身,地產及高息板塊率先步入熊市價,今年普遍由高位累計勁瀉13%至三成,地產股分類指數兩日大瀉3.6%,房產基金指數昨更創超過三季新低。綜合學者及基金經理分析,資產市場已先行收水部署,受惠低息環境的板塊,甚至已步入熊市。 
記者:林靜 馮健鏗 高明輝

據學者及基金經理分析,倘加息落實時間表,樓市更隨時調整兩至三成新興市場出現資金撤走先兆。

Wednesday, August 21, 2013

馬航賣不賣?‧首相說了算

馬航賣不賣?‧首相說了算
Created 08/21/2013 - 18:03
(吉隆坡21日訊)馬航(MAS,3786,主板貿服組)賣不賣?首席執行員阿末佐哈里強調,一切首相說了算。

至於他是否獲得續約,他也僅表示尚與馬航擁有合約,並將會看到馬航有利可圖。

阿末佐哈里在轉虧為盈計劃匯報會上,首次回應政府脫售馬航課題,惟他沒有正面答覆,僅表示一切交給首相決定。

首相拿督斯里納吉週一(19日)受詢時指出,馬航不會私營化,因為這是由國庫控股和公眾掌控的上市公司,更何況拯救馬航計劃已見成效,虧損也日漸減少。

大馬恐成下個狙擊目標

大馬恐成下個狙擊目標
Created 08/21/2013 - 17:53
(吉隆坡21日訊)《路透社》報導,美國量化寬鬆政策(QE)退市倒數計時,印尼股市賣壓沉重和印度盧比急貶風險恐擴散至其他亞洲經濟體,而債台高築,以及仰賴原產品的大馬經濟恐成為投資者下個狙擊目標。

與亞洲金融風暴相似

香港野村證券(Nomura)亞洲除日本外地區信用分析主任普拉迪表示,這與1997-1998年亞洲金融風暴有許多相似之處,首先印度和印尼先後倒下,現在是時候思考誰是第三和第四個國家。

中海油賺343億 喜出望外


中海油中期業績

中海油(00883)中期盈利343.83億元(人民幣.下同),按年升7.9%,勝市場預期,中期息0.25港元。市場關心中海油收購尼克森的效益,但尼克森上半年僅貢獻1.97億元盈利,而且「利量不利價」,更令實現油價倒退10.9%。

羅傑斯:揸港元避險

【收水恐慌】
新興市場金融危機突然吹襲亞太區股市,「商品大王」羅傑斯(Jim Rogers)談及對環球股市看法,他比一個多月前看得更淡,指各國停止印鈔將引發金融危機,除了強調投資者不宜沾手任何股市外,更建議持有港元和人民幣避險。
記者:馮健鏗 林靜 高明輝

羅傑斯接受本報電話訪問指出,「美元短期走勢尚可,所以掛鈎的港元適合避險」。但他提醒投資者,港元終有一天會與美元脫鈎,並指「港元應該立即消失!」他認為,聯繫匯率制度變相令港人的消費力變差,所以人民幣現時應該立即實施自由兌換,並再將全部港元換至人民幣,形容香港與中國的生意來往一向頻繁,以人民幣交易相比美元更划算,坦言港元根本「沒有理由存在」。

中海油:前景不明 拒升生產目標

中海油:前景不明 拒升生產目標
半年多賺7.9% 派息大增
2013年8月21日
【明報專訊】近年備受增長見頂質疑的中海油(0883),上半年賺343.83億元(人民幣.下同),按年增長7.9%,遠超市場預期,產量增長更達到23.1%。有分析員認為,Nexen的貢獻仍然是微不足道,中海油業績勝預期受惠於自身產能增長。集團則明言,即使上半年產量超標,下半年仍有不明朗因素,不會調升全年產量目標。

中期息每股0.25元

中海油派發中期息每股0.25元,按年大增66.7%。集團年初訂立的全年油氣產量目標為3.38至3.48億桶油當量,但單是上半年已達到1.981億桶油當量,即使不計Nexen的2480萬桶油當量,自身增長亦有7.7%,主要受惠於蓬萊19-3油田復產、兩個中國近海油田投產及美國鷹灘與伊拉克米桑油田產量提升。但董事長王宜林表示,即使上半年產量理想,仍不會調整全年的生產目標。

香港股神曹仁超:A股距离见底日子已经不远了

搜狐证券讯 被誉为香港股神,且现任中国高增长集团首席经济学家的曹仁超先生,近期在接受搜狐证券专访时提到,A股距离见底日子已经不远了。他提醒投资者,目前A股值博率甚高,牛市往往在投资者最悲观的日子诞生,今天中国的机会不在房地产亦不在黄金市场,而在A股市场。

  曹仁超用技术分析的手段给出论断:目前A股距离见底日子不远。他给出的理由有两点,第一,1997年8月 香港面对亚洲金融风暴,香港房地产回落了6年,到2003年下半年才复苏。2007年10月 A股面对全球性金融海啸至今年9月 亦6年了,相信调整期快结束。另一理由是,2007年10月A股指数平均P/E接近70倍极不合理水平,

经营模式落伍 百盛纯利大跌近四成

经营模式落伍 百盛纯利大跌近四成
证券新闻北京商报[微博]

新店仍然是百盛难以言说的痛。北京商报记者昨日走访看到,尽管在周末购物黄金时段,开业两年的百盛太阳宫店内依旧客流稀少。或许是由于业绩欠佳,部分鞋类品牌已经撤离。图为正在撤柜的品牌哈森,虽然专柜仍有少量货品,但已无导购。

  北京商报讯(记者 刘宇 实习记者 张力月)继去年遭遇上市八年来的首次净利下滑后,第一外资百货百盛的业绩仍在下滑。百盛集团昨日发布中期业绩报告显示,截至6月30日,集团纯利下降38%至3.25亿元。尽管此前百盛创始人钟延森重掌百盛,并对中小型百货店进行了调整,但自救效果并不明显。在业界看来,受电商和购物中心的双重冲击,主要靠传统零售业态打天下的百盛的经营模式已经有些落伍。

Unions back MAS CEO Jauhari

Unions back MAS CEO Jauhari

BY B. K. SIDHU
BKSIDHU@THESTAR.COM.MY

PETALING JAYA: Malaysia Airlines (MAS) group chief executive officer Ahmad Jauhari Yahya has finally secured the buy-in of its powerful unions in his efforts to turn around the carrier, which reported a loss of RM175.98mil for its second quarter to end-June 2013, sources said.

The new-found support from the unions is believed to be part of the key message that Ahmad Jauhari will deliver to the media at a noon briefing today.

Jim Rogers' take on Myanmar and Malaysia

Jim Rogers' take on Myanmar and Malaysia
Features
Written by Cindy Yeap of The Edge Malaysia    
Friday, 16 August 2013 00:00

 MYANMAR and Malaysia are the top two Southeast Asian countries commodities guru Jim Rogers is looking at for investment opportunities, and Axiata Group Bhd is one name that will be on his radar, should the home-grown regional telecommunications group be named (at the time of writing) as one of two winners of Myanmar telecoms licences on June 27.

"If Axiata gets [the licence], then I would have to consider it. I don't know enough about the group right now but whoever gets the contract, I would certainly have to consider [for Myanmar exposure]," Rogers tells The Edge in Kuala Lumpur.

CNMC Goldmine : Production to Jump in 2H 2013 (VR)

CNMC Goldmine Holdings Limited
Increase Exposure
Production to Jump in 2H 2013
 Intrinsic Value S$0.800
 Prev Closing S$0.270

 CNMC Goldmine Holdings Limited (CNMC) reported 2Q FY13 revenue of US$2.2m, or about three times 1Q FY13 revenue. As a result, the company reported US$0.1m of net profit for 2Q FY13, reversing the loss of US$0.7m for 1Q FY13. Growth was driven by a rebound in production from 685 ounces in 1Q FY13 to 1,388 ounces in 2Q FY13. With the completion of the second leach yard, CNMC expects to produce about 9,650 to 11,250 ounces of gold dore in 2H 2013. Maintain Increase Exposure.

Keppel REIT: Most Undervalued Office REIT (OSK)

Keppel REIT: Most Undervalued Office REIT
(BUY, SGD1.23, TP: SGD1.66)

We initiate coverage on Keppel REIT with a BUY. Using DCF with terminal growth rate assumption of 3.0%, blended COE of 9.3% (with a 3% risk-free rate, 0.8x beta and 7.88% equity risk premium), we arrive at a SGD1.66 TP. We expect KREIT shares to re-rate over the mediumterm, as its portfolio will likely benefit from Singapore’s low incoming supply of new commercial assets and its high-yielding Australian assets.

Strong income stream. With a weighted average lease to expiry (WALE) of 6.6 years and long term lease (>five years) accounting for 40% of its portfolio, coupled with revenue hedge for its Australian exposure, KREIT’s earnings downside risks appear limited.

Cache Logistics Trust: Not resting on laurels (OCBC)

Cache Logistics Trust:
Fair value S$1.30
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.085
versus: Current price S$1.15

Not resting on laurels
• Asset injection in sight?
• Ample debt headroom
• On track to meet forecasts

After staying quiet for over four months following the completion of the Precise Two acquisition, we believe Cache Logistics Trust (CACHE) may now be close to striking another acquisition deal in the near term. On last Friday evening, CACHE announced the incorporation of four wholly-owned subsidiaries, including a 100% stake in Cache Polar Logistics

Midas Holdings: Higher Utilisation Boosts Revenue (OSK)

Midas Holdings: Higher Utilisation Boosts Revenue
(BUY, SGD0.52, SGD0.75)

Midas recorded a surge in 2Q13 PATMI to CNY14.9m as orders started picking up. With the Chinese Government reaffirming its investment in railway infrastructure, there is a good chance of more order flows for Midas over the next few quarters. We also expect positive contribution from its associate NPRT to boost its FY13 earnings.

Maintain BUY, with TP of SGD0.75, based on 1.5x FY13F P/BV. 2Q13 revenue grew 29.2% y-o-y to CNY284.0m on the back of improving utilisation of its production lines. Despite the revenue growth, 2Q13 gross profit margin fell to 22.4%, from 31.5% in 2Q12, due to a change in product mix – it also supplied freight wagons, which are generally of lower margins. The CNY3.1m profit from its associate Nanjing SR Puzhen Rail Transport (NPRT) – compared with a CNY14.1m loss a year ago – pushed up its 2Q13 PATMI by eight-fold.

S-REITs & consumer goods underperformed, banks outperformed (DBSV)

S-REITs & consumer goods underperformed, banks outperformed

S-REITs are likely to underperform in the current environment where bond yields are underpinned by an impending cut in QE. Among the blue chips, bank stocks have outperformed as loan growth improves and NIM remains stable. Still, a pullback to consolidate recent gains is possible. We see support for UOB shares at $20.90 and that for OCBC at $10.22.

Among the SMCs, we look for recovery names that offer yield as well such as Venture Corp & Jaya. Venture Corp shares offer a 7% yield and 2H is expected to show improvement with new customer contributions. Our analyst is optimistic of Jaya’s transformation into a ship charterer from a builder. Revenue visibility is improving as the group has secured several chartering contracts in recent months. Stock offers 5.7% forward yield.

King Wan Corp: 1QFY14 Good Things Are Worth The Wait (OSK)

King Wan Corp: 1QFY14 Good Things Are Worth The Wait
 (BUY, SGD0.32, TP: SGD0.43)

King Wan’s (KWAN) 1QFY14 was above expectations with revenue at SGD25.1m. Its net profit of SGD2.6m is equivalent to half of the core 1.5-cent dividend. We note that the company’s new development property, Skywoods, should be launched in 2QFY14. KWAN also issued an update on the status of the KTIS IPO, which should go live within six months. Maintain BUY with a TP of SGD0.43 based on a 7% yield.

Strong core operations. KWAN’s mechanical & electrical (M&E) division delivered another strong quarter as revenue surged 94% y-o-y to SGD25.1m at a gross margin of 15.4%. While the y-o-y margin is down from 18.8%, this is a normalised level reflecting fewer high-margin projects. The bottomline expanded by 81% y-o-y on the back of the high volume of work, with net margins stable at 10.2% vs 10.9% a year ago.

Kingsmen Creatives: Expect a Strong 2HFY13 (OSK)

Kingsmen Creatives: Expect a Strong 2HFY13
(BUY, SGD0.91, TP: SGD1.08)

KMEN’s 2QFY13 PATAMI grew 4.3% y-o-y to SGD5.4m, on the back of a 12.7% increase in revenue. Its orderbook continues to grow as demand for its services remains strong, which would boost 2H13’s performance. Its ability to secure more projects and grow its business is supported by a sturdy balance sheet. Maintain BUY for stable dividends with a TP of SGD1.08, based on 8x FY13 P/E (ex-cash).

Midas Holdings: Rising from the ashes (OCBC)

Midas Holdings:
Fair value S$0.65
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.005
versus: Current price S$0.51

Rising from the ashes
• 2Q13 PATMI soars more than nine-folds
• Awaiting new high-speed train car tenders
• Re-rating warranted

Midas Holdings’ 2Q13 results came in above our expectations, with revenue and PATMI soaring 29.2% and 834.1% YoY to CNY284.0m and CNY14.9m, respectively. The spike in earnings was largely driven by a turnaround from its associated company NPRT. Although 1H13 PATMI of CNY10.0m (-40.8% YoY) forms only 28.6% of our FY13 projections,

曾淵滄專欄 21.08.13:大戶角力製造波幅

恒指昨早11時後突然大跌,也不知道是甚麼原因。上網查一查內地股市,上午表現得還不太差,一度出現升勢;午後下跌,相信是反過來受港股大跌所影響。

既然不知道為甚麼下跌,不妨聽一聽市場裏傳來的聲音。有一種分析認為,是多個亞洲新興國家的貨幣幣值及股市正在大幅下跌,有人提到印尼、印度……更有人將之形容為新的亞洲金融風暴,情況有如1997年,然後是大量的黑天鵝論。

印尼、印度股市下跌、貨幣幣值下跌不是發生於昨日,而是發生了好一段日子,為甚麼會突然成為昨日跌市的理由?莫名其妙。

Jaya Holdings : Charter backlog improving (DBSV)

Jaya Holdings
BUY S$0.63
STI : 3,220.92
Price Target : 12-month S$ 0.90 (Prev S$ 0.85)

Charter backlog improving
• Fleet utilisation rate of 91% in 4Q and higher charter rates provide evidence of better execution
• Vessel disposal gains of US$20m supported the 157% growth in recurring net profit for FY13 to US$49m
• Final DPS of 3.5cts translates to an attractive yield of 5.6%
• BUY, TP raised to S$0.90, stock is undervalued at 0.7xP/B, PE of 9x.

Parkson Retail Group : The extent of miss is a surprise (CIMB)

Parkson Retail Group
Current HK$3.52
Target HK$2.20
The extent of miss is a surprise

 After a series of misses since 2011, Parkson’s 1H13 results miss was not a complete surprise, but the magnitude was. We believe Parkson will continue to underperform its peers and the HSI until it can deliver a positive trend in SSSG but expect this to only happen in late 2014.

1H13’s earnings were 34% below our forecast and 32% short of consensus on higher staff and rental costs, and lower GSP. 2Q13’s yoy earnings drop widened to 54% vs. 1Q13’s 27.4% drop. 1H13 SSS fell 0.7%, as expected. We cut our FY13-15 EPS by 19-22%, and lower our target price to HK$2.20, based on 8x CY14 P/E, vs. 7x before, to bring it in line with peers Maoye and NWDS. Reiterate Underperform. The lack of a CFO replacement plan is a negative share price catalyst.

金碩良言:中海油 績優可低吸

埃及與利比亞局勢持續動盪,國際油價近日顯著上揚。專注於上游業務的中海油(00883),截至六月底止中期純利343.8億元人民幣,按年升7.9%,較市場預期高。受惠完成併購加拿大尼克森的貢獻,油氣淨產量大升23.1%,至1.98億桶油當量。

集團下半年將繼續推動新項目投產,落實增產措施,以確保完成全年3.38至3.48億桶油當量的產量目標,而按中期業績發布計算,即使不包括尼克森的貢獻,已完成全年目標上限約50%,表現不俗。然而股價亦累積不少升幅,宜待回調至14.5元吸納,上望16.3元,止蝕13.3元。

自今年三月底發改委宣布改善成品油價格機制以來,目前內地成品油價格已大為貼近國際油價,處於行業下游的中石化(00386),今年煉油業務由虧轉盈機會頗高。早前市場擔心內地經濟放緩,會導致石油需求減少,惟集團上半年營運數據表現不俗,股價有望收復早前失地,後市看法中性偏好。

中海油業績 Nexen貢獻少 千億收購 只進賬2億

中海油業績 Nexen貢獻少 千億收購 只進賬2億

【本報訊】中海油(883)中期業績勝過市場預期,上半年純利增長7.9%至343.8億元(人民幣.下同)。不過,集團去年斥資151億美元(約1,177.8億港元)收購的加拿大油企尼克森(Nexen),上半年貢獻盈利僅得2億元,中海油董事長王宜林解釋,尼克森目前仍在整合過程中,揚言對短期盈利「不太關心」,集團將更着眼於長遠發展。
記者:鄧偉忠

中海油上半年錄得收入約1,390.27億元,按年增長接近兩成,每股盈利按年升7.9%至0.77元,中期息每股派0.25港元。上半年收入增長,主要由於期內計入尼克森貢獻約2,480萬桶油當量產量,集團整體產量增長約23.1%至1.98億桶油當量,帶動油氣銷售收入增長約15.8%,至1,107.99億元。

Tuesday, August 20, 2013

東南亞熊影乍現‧馬股猛挫32點

東南亞熊影乍現‧馬股猛挫32點
Created 08/20/2013 - 17:35
(吉隆坡20日訊)美國下月開始退市傳言甚囂塵上,大批游資撤離亞洲回流先進市場,東南亞股市首當其衝,印尼率先陷入熊市,泰國與菲律賓也岌岌可危,馬股今日在銀行股領跌聲中上演滑鐵盧,一度猛挫40.78點。

經濟數據顯示,先進國特別是歐美市場出現一點好轉曙光,區域新興市場從高峰回跌,大批游資開始“棄東返西”,馬股也在外資拋售銀行股下挫跌,綜指一度猛挫40.78點或2.29%至1737.58點全天最低。

曹仁超:别做蜗牛乱买房

曹仁超:别做蜗牛乱买房
2013-08-17 09:44:25第一财经日报

许多人误以为“砖头”是对抗通胀的最佳工具,以为通胀高时,房价也会跟着上涨,有人甚至以为房价升幅必然大于通胀率,可惜事实并非如此。高通胀期间房价也有可能不升反跌

  不背龟壳 不做蜗牛

  自古以来,结婚是中国人的终身大事。婚礼办得隆重又体面,象征男方家族富有、地位高。中国人通常认为“成家”先要“立室”,买了房“有瓦遮头”,才能建立属于自己的家。相反,婚后要租屋或与家人同住,就好像寄人篱下一样。

香港股神曹仁超:港股仍有25%上升空间

香港股神曹仁超:港股仍有25%上升空间
港股要闻腾讯财经[微博] 曹仁超2013-08-13

8月13日消息,据香港媒体报道,年初至今一直跑输环球主要股市的中港股,昨日懒理欧美日股弱势,突然爆升逾2%,成为宇宙最强,皆因中央连环放水及内地经济数据好转,终于发挥利好作用,吸引到资金由欧美日流出,涌入中港股。“香港股神”、中国高增长集团首席经济学家曹仁超直指,中港股正被大低估,目前距离合理值水平仍有25%上升空间,资金短线料已转投残价的资源板块。

港股11倍PE“严重被低估”

人称“曹sir”的曹仁超表示,以港股过去20年平均市盈率(PE)为15至16倍看,大市目前11倍PE是严重被低估,要重返合理水平,至少要有25%升幅,意味要升抵27000以上,潜在升幅约5500点。

曾渊沧:美国9月“退市”概率低于50%

今年五月,美国联邦储备局第一次谈退市,造成全球股市大调整。但是,经过一段时间的消化之后,美股又再创历史新高,近一段日子则再度出现反复。事源多位联邦储备局官员出来高谈阔论,谈论美国退市的时间表。有的认为应该在九月中开始退市,有的认为应该等十月……无论如何,当股市接近九月,压力自然加大。过去一星期,美股就跌多升少,昨日更是大跌,道指跌225点,收市报15112点,跌幅约1.5%。理由是通胀率回升,就业数据向好……很自然的,股市就出现炒退市的造空活动。

过去一两个星期,也是香港蓝筹股的公布业绩期。不过,因为大市淡静,散户参与者少,大户很容易操控股价,导致业绩公布后,股价走势往往与业绩的优劣呈相反方向走,这是相当令人困扰的。

融资部署未来发展 精英国际期待收成

融资部署未来发展 精英国际期待收成
Created 08/19/2013 - 14:37
2007年上市的精英国际集团(HELP,7236,主板贸服股),股价和盈利在3年内冲向高峰,但自此后劲开始乏力,盈利在接下来两年无法延续强劲势头。

接下来,精英国际集团配合扩展计划而发售不可赎回可转换债券(ICULS)的活动融资,可以预期的是,为了支付ICULS的利息,往后数年的盈利将遭到稀释。

精英国际集团创办人、现任校长兼总裁拿督陈德鸿博士认为,这些冲击是短暂的,认为公司有足够韧力应对挑战,融资活动是为了将来的发展。

华商与经济转型系列87——捷运高铁发力(上):产业火红利商惠民

华商与经济转型系列87——捷运高铁发力(上):产业火红利商惠民
Created 08/19/2013 - 14:02
大吉隆坡对国民收入的影响深远,公共交通系统将更为完善,除了交通系统获得改善,这个大型计划将引起跨国公司的注意,一旦城市之间的衔接性改善,地价将相应上升。

首相拿督斯里纳吉于2010年10月推出由表现管理和传递单位(PEMANDU)执行的经济转型执行方案(ETP),至今已执行将近两年,多项计划已陆续展开,甚至有些已经能见到初期的成效。

随着2013年步入第三季度,距离2020年先进国目标年的距离,又再拉进一步。

Tiger Airways Holdings Ltd - Is the turn-around story on track – which of the brokers is right?

Tiger Airways Holdings Ltd - Is the turn-around story on track – which of the brokers is right?
Investor Central
By Adrian Goh | Investor Central

14/8/2013 – Analysts are divided over Tiger Airways Holdings' turn-around story.

The airline narrowed its losses in Q1 FY2014 to S$6.2 mln, down from S$11.8 mln in the same quarter a year ago.

There were problems in all areas of the business.

Yangzijiang 2Q13 inline; order momentum improving (CS)

Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (Holdings) Ltd
Maintain NEUTRAL
Price (06 Aug 13 , S$) 0.93
TP (prev. TP S$) 1.10 (1.10)
2Q13 inline; order momentum improving

● 1H13 net profit of Rmb1.52 bn was in line with our expectation, representing 55% of our FY13 forecast. Shipbuilding revenue increased to Rmb4.04 bn from Rmb2.47 bn in 1Q13, while gross margin declined to 21% in 2Q13 from 26% in 1Q13, due to recognition of lower priced contracts.

● Held-to-maturity (HTM) financial assets increased to Rmb12.2 bn from Rmb11.6 bn at the end of 1Q13. Interest income was steady at Rmb383 mn in 2Q13 from Rmb394 mn in 1Q13.

First Resources:Slower growth, but oversold (DBSV)

First Resources:
BUY S$1.775,
Slower growth, but oversold
Price Target : 12-month S$ 2.15 (Prev S$ 2.18)

•2Q13 earnings of US$37.7m were below our US$45-50m estimates due to lower refining profit; 1.25Sct interim DPS declared
•Own FFB output growth guidance cut to 0-5% from 5-10%; new planting target of 15-20k ha unlikely to be met due to labour shortage
•FY13F-15F earnings revised by +2%/-5%/-3% on lower yields, biodiesel volume, export taxes; DCF-based TP tweaked to S$2.15 (WACC 15.4%, TG 3%)
•BUY call reiterated on 21% upside; share price has more than priced in weaker performance

Pan – United : “Pan – ning” for growth (Voyage)

Pan – United
Invest
“Pan – ning” for growth
 Intrinsic Value S$0.965
 Prev Closing S$0.865
“Pan – ning” for growth

 Pan – United Corporation Ltd (Pan United) released its 2Q FY13 results with a 5% YoY increase in revenue to S$190m and a 20% YoY decline in PATMI to S$12m. The increase in revenue was mainly due to the steady growth in the Basic Building Resources (BBR) division. The decline in PATMI was due to a S$2.2m one off provision for doubtful debts on one of its customers: Alpine Bau GmbH, and the absence of a S$2.2m gain on disposal of vessels, property, plant and equipment which occurred in 2Q FY12. Without these, the company’s 2Q FY13 PATMI would have been S$14.2m vs 2Q FY12 PATMI of S$12.9m.

Nam Cheong: Surge in shipbuilding activities (OCBC)

Nam Cheong:
Fair value S$0.35
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.005
versus: Current price S$0.29

Surge in shipbuilding activities
• 2Q13 net profit jumped 81%
• Upswing in shipbuilding revenue
• Growth momentum intact

Nam Cheong Limited reported a strong pick-up in 2Q13 performance, with revenue and net profit climbing 84% and 81% YoY to RM275m and RM41m respectively. The surge was mainly driven by higher contribution from the shipbuilding segment. As a result, net profit attributable to shareholders jumped 81% YoY to RM41m. For 1H13, net profit was RM76m, forming 50% and 46% of ours and the street’s FY13F estimates. The outlook for Nam Cheong is positive, and the group is likely to benefit from an uptick in Malaysia’s offshore oil & gas activities over the medium term horizon. Maintain BUY with an unchanged S$0.35 FV.

Midas Holdings: On The Way To Recovery (MKE)

Midas Holdings
Buy (unchanged)
Share price:SGD0.51
Target price:SGD0.75 (unchanged)
On The Way To Recovery

 2Q13 results largely within expectations. Midas 2Q13 results were in line with our expectations. Revenue rose 29% YoY to RMB284m while net profit improved significantly to RMB15m, hugely better compared to only RMB1.6m last year and a loss of RMB6m last quarter. We expect a better performance in 2H13 as utilization rates gradually recover and NPRT turns profitable. The potential big catalyst for the stock is still the resumption of high speed train tenders, which we expect to happen in the next two months. The current 1x P/B valuation provides a solid floor to the share price. Maintain BUY and target price of SGD0.75 (based on 1.5x P/B relative to the mean of 2.1x).

Q&M Dental : Steady Growth in the Core Dental Business (SIAS)

Q&M Dental Group (Singapore) Limited
Increase Exposure
 Intrinsic Value S$0.400
 Prev Closing S$0.310
Steady Growth in the Core Dental Business

 Q&M Dental Group (Singapore) Ltd (Q&M) announced steady 2Q FY13 results with revenue rising 21% YoY to S$15.7m. The rise of S$2.7m is mainly attributable to the opening of five new dental outlets (add S$1.1m) and incremental revenue of S$1.6m from existing clinics. The latter represents organic growth of 12.3% YoY. In 2Q, Q&M also recorded S$38,000 revenue from the set-up of new medical and aesthetics clinics.

Jaya Holdings : Good News First, Or The Bad? (OSK)

Jaya Holdings
Target Price: SGD0.61
Price: SGD0.57
52-wk Price low/high (SGD) 0.53 - 0.73

Good News First, Or The Bad?
 Jaya’s FY13 results surprised owing to USD17.6m in net one-offs, excluding which its core earnings of USD28.4m were in line, just 3% shy of our prior USD29.3m forecast. The 3.5 cent dividend is a new positive but vessel disposals and further delays may hurt near-term growth. As its shares have fallen 14% since we initiated coverage three months ago, upgrade to NEUTRAL, with SGD0.61 TP.

• Exceptionally-high utilisation buoys returns. 4QFY13 was a bumper quarter, with fleet utilisation at a record 91% while charter revenue came in at USD29.8m and gross margin at 40%. The USD24.7m in pretax income can be split into USD17.2m from one-off gains and losses, and core earnings of USD7.5m (See Figures 1 and 2 for details).

Macquarie International Infrastructure Fund : All eyes are now on Hua Nan Expressway (AM)

Macquarie International Infrastructure Fund
LAST CLOSE: S$0.193
All eyes are now on Hua Nan Expressway

• Proposed 9.5c per share return of capital on divestment of Changshu Xinghua Port (CXP). On 14 August 2013, Macquarie International Infrastructure Fund (MIIF) announced its proposed divestment of its 38% stake in CXP for a total cash consideration of S$112.2mil. This comes closely on the back of its recent divestments of its 47.5% interest in Taiwan Broadband Communications via an IPO of Asian Pay Television Trust and its 100% stake in Miaoli Wind.

曾淵滄專欄 20.08.13:看透國策談何容易

上星期五的光大證券烏龍盤事故,並沒有為昨日的內地股市帶來震動,的確可喜,這說明了中國市場已開始有能力應付這一類的事故,光大證券烏龍盤,緣自槓桿式ETF,這是值得關心的事,因為香港也有不少槓桿式的ETF上市,槓桿式ETF的確得依賴非常有效的程式買賣軟件來操作,一有甚麼差錯,投資者可能面對巨大的虧損。

上星期五,我受邀擔任今年度金茶王的評判之一,我不是甚麼食家,但是這次活動很有趣。實際上,上周所有受邀的評判都是平常人,沒有食家。是的,奶茶好不好喝是相當主觀的,不一定得靠食家來品評。

Halcyon Agri 1H13 Results: Within Expectations (UOBKH)

Halcyon Agri
Share Price S$0.725
Target Price S$1.00
1H13 Results: Within Expectations

Valuation
• Maintain BUY and target price of S$1.00 based on a peer-average PE of 10x applied to our 2014F EPS estimate of 9.9 S cents.

1H13 Results
• Weak 1H13 as expected due to renovation works in Halcyon Agri Corp’s (HACL) Indonesian factories, flooding in Feb 13 and farmers’ low rubber tapping activity. Revenue fell 14.4% yoy to US$104.1m due to lower natural rubber (NR) prices. Gross profit is lower by only 5.7% yoy to US$9.5m on a healthy gross material profit (GMP) of US$395 per tone and higher sales volume of 36,459 tonnes (+10% yoy).

Pan United : Earnings hit by one-off provision (UOBKH)

Pan United :
Share Price S$0.865
Target Price S$1.25
Earnings hit by one-off provision

Valuation/Recommendation
• Maintain BUY and target price of S$1.25.
• Pan United (PUC) remains one of our preferred picks in the construction sector due to its market leader position and established track record. We view PUC additional take up in Changshu Xinghua Port (CXP) positively as it is earnings accretive and is a better utilization of PUC’s cash in the bank.

Monday, August 19, 2013

Myriad headwinds for M-REITs

Myriad headwinds for M-REITs
Insider Asia
Written by Insider Asia    
Monday, 19 August 2013 10:00

Prospects for real estate investment trusts
(REITs) listed on Bursa Malaysia are likely to stay muted for the foreseeable future.

Whilst REITs had fared well previously, when excessive liquidity and historic low interest rates pushed investors into seeking higher yields in these investments, the trend has reversed in recent months.

Even though unit prices for most of the larger, more liquid trusts have corrected over the past month, their expected returns do not appear any more attractive, given that risk-free returns on government bonds have risen in tandem.

Keys to winning for Tony Fernandes

Keys to winning for Tony Fernandes
Business & Markets 2013
Written by Kristina Mariswamy, fz.com (contributor to theedgemalaysia.com)    
Monday, 19 August 2013 11:45

AS Tan Sri Tony Fernandes wrapped up his story, quite a few of the professionals dressed in business suits in the full auditorium had tears in their eyes.

His story reminisced on when he received a "tub box" he had during his boarding school years in England.

"A good friend of mine called me and said he had found it, so I said, yes, send it over, and when I received the box, looking at it, it was an incredible feeling for me," he said.

国油自行买船冲击 MISC长期净利看跌

(吉隆坡19日讯)由于每年的第2季向来是船运业的淡季,MISC公司(MISC,3816,主板贸服股)交出疲弱次季业绩符合市场预期。而国油公司不再向MISC公司订购液化天然气(LNG)油船,往后或对其净利表现带来一些衝击。

MISC公司2013財政年次季(截至6月30日止)净利按年下跌20.8%,至3.01亿令吉;营业额也减少3.17%,至22.84亿令吉。这主要是受到其重型工程部门以及石油业务所拖累。

该公司上半年已取得6.01亿令吉净利,去年同期为8975万令吉净亏损;至於营业额则按年增涨2.09%,至46.64亿令吉。

无论如何,市场分析员对於MISC公司的业绩表现和下半年前景持有不同看法。

亞洲風暴一觸即發?

亞洲風暴一觸即發?
Created 08/18/2013 - 19:00
2012年瑪雅末日預言,成了一場讓全世界虛驚一場的瑪雅古國謠言,著名末日博士對QE大結局的預測,又會否純屬虛驚一場?

2013年6月19日,美國聯邦儲備局主席伯南克在全球市場屏息以待時,捎來了這段話:“如果在未來數月中,美國經濟依然穩步復甦,將有可能在年內做出縮減量化寬鬆的決定……”此話一出,全球市場馬上波濤洶湧。

伯南克的一席話,能夠撼動全球市場,原因就在於他在過去5年間,啟動了人類史上首無前例的金融大實驗-QE。

Worst over for Parkson Retail?

Worst over for Parkson Retail?
Business & Markets 2013
Written by Siow Chen Ming & Afiq Isa of theedgemalaysia.com    
Monday, 19 August 2013 09:02

KUALA LUMPUR: Tan Sri William Cheng's most prized holding, Parkson Retail Group Ltd (PRG), saw a slight recovery in its share price after the Hong Kong-listed counter slumped to a historical low of HK$2.93 (RM1.57) in early July, which was less than a third of its HK$9.80 IPO price in late 2005.

Along with a slight reversal in investors' pessimism on China following an expansion of the mainland's Purchasing Managers' Index in July, PRG's stock regained some positive traction to HK$3.52 last Friday, giving it a market capitalisation of HK$9.7 billion.

Inari eyes RM1b revenue within 3 years

Inari eyes RM1b revenue within 3 years
Business & Markets 2013
Written by Surindran Murugiah of theedgemalaysia.com  
Monday, 19 August 2013 09:57

KUALA LUMPUR: Inari Amertron Bhd, which is targeting RM1 billion in revenue within the next three years, is hoping to increase its exposure to new customers in its wireless packaging and radio frequency (RF) testing segment.

Vice-chairman Dr Tan Seng Chuan said Inari has geared up for the next stage through the recent successful acquisition of Amertron Inc (Global) Ltd.

股价跌回酬升 REITs展现魅力

全球债券回酬率上扬,大马政府债券也隨之走高,为本地的房地產投资信託(REITs)带来新的局面,由于房地產投资信託是一种固定收益投资工具,在债券回酬率提高之后,房地產投资信託也將需要提供更高的股息回酬,才能维持其对投资者的吸引力。

近期一些大型房產投资信託的价格回调,將房產投资信託及政府债券的利差水平,重新拉近至歷史平均水平。

一些分析员认为,这是进场的好时机,因为房地產投资信託的前景佳,然而,亦有分析员认为,房產投资信託在这一轮的回调之后,股价虽然已见底,但是由于估值已经全面反映利好因素,上涨的空间也不大,並非所有的房產投资信託都值得买入。

麥嘉華筆記:美股最少調整兩成

麥嘉華筆記:美股最少調整兩成

美國股市近期一直跑贏新興市場股市,究竟美股能否保持住這股氣勢?個人認為美股於未來一段日子依然會相對處於上風,可是按絕對值計算,則未必可以有同樣的好表現,不易重演1994至2000年的驕人一幕。

信貸過熱 中國增長難樂觀

首先,中國作為現今最舉足輕重的經濟體,中期增長前景卻不是太樂觀。根據惠譽的資料,自從雷曼兄弟爆煲以來,中國的整體信貸已由9萬億美元跳升至23萬億美元,佔國內生產總值(GDP)的比率,亦因此由75%飆升到200%。

DBS CIO Lim Say Boon: Back to fundamentals



Parkson Retail Group : xpansion plan to weigh in on 2H margin recovery (CS)

Parkson Retail Group Ltd.
Maintain UNDERPERFORM
Price (16 Aug 13 , HK$) 3.52
TP (prev. TP HK$) 2.80 (3.48)
1H13 NP -38% YoY, margin down 250 bp to 3.6%; expansion plan to weigh in on 2H margin recovery

● 1H13 net profit fell 38% YoY to Rmb325 mn (22% below consensus); net margin fell 250 bp YoY to 3.6%. Gross sales proceeds (GSP) grew 5% YoY on -0.7% SSSG. New stores dilution and April gold rush pulled down concession rate by 72 bp YoY. Operating cost (opex) ratio rose 192 bp YoY to 16.6%.

Biosensors International : share buyback provides downside protection (CS)

Biosensors International Group Ltd.
Maintain OUTPERFORM
Price (16 Aug 13 , S$) 0.88
TP (prev. TP S$) 1.25 (1.43)
Revisiting the valuation methodology; share buyback provides downside protection

● We revisit the valuation methodology and exclude the licensing revenue from the EPS used in the P/E multiple valuation and treat the licensing revenue as non-operating cash inflow.

● Biosensors signed the technology licensing agreement with Terumo in 2003 when it was a small start-up company and needed capital for R&D. As Terumo is now in the process of developing its own new stents, it may not want to renew the agreement, and hence we assume the licensing revenue to Biosensors will not reoccurring and cease after May 2016.

Thai Beverage : Spirits will pick up in 2H (CIMB)

Thai Beverage
Current S$0.58
Target S$0.73
Spirits will pick up in 2H

 Another challenging quarter for the spirits business as expected. However, wholesalers destocking is almost over and volumes should pick up in 2H. Est cola reported encouraging numbers.

2Q13 was in line at 26% of our estimates but is slightly below consensus at 23%. 1H12 forms 44%. We are tweaking our estimates downwards slightly on lower non-alcoholic beverage earnings. Our SOP target price comes down accordingly. Maintain Outperform with catalyst to come from corporate restructuring

Midas Holdings : Weak earnings but focus is on timing of HSR contracts (DBSV)

Midas Holdings,
Buy S$0.515,
Weak earnings but focus is on timing of HSR contracts
Price Target : 12-Month S$ 0.60

•2Q earnings of Rmb14.9m largely in line; 1H13 earnings  declined 41% to Rmb10m; 0.25Scts DPS declared
•Core earnings remain weak as utilisation rate is still less than 50% but associate NPRT has turned around
•Midas to remain profitable but the strength of its recovery will depend on how soon China’s high speed railway program restarts

Tiong Seng Holdings: Leading contractor, superior margins (DBSV)

Tiong Seng Holdings:
Buy S$0.25,
Leading contractor, superior margins
Price Target : 12-Month S$ 0.33

•2Q13 PATMI of S$3.4m in line
•Robust construction orders; stable margins
•New pre-cast plants in Iskandar and Myanmar to be ready in phases over 2013-2014
•Maintain BUY rating and S$0.33 TP

Highlights
2Q13 PATMI in line. Tiong Seng Holdings (TSNG) reported 1% topline growth to S$131.6m. It booked less construction revenue in 2Q13 (S$103.7m,-18% y-o-y) but that was compensated by higher revenue recognition from the sale of development properties (S$25.1m, >100% y-o-y), attributed to the sale of 230 units at Sunny Int’l Cangzhou.

Religare Health Trust: 1QFY14 results in line (DBSV)

Religare Health Trust:
BUY; S$0.86;
1QFY14 results in line
Price Target : 12-Month S$ 0.99 (Prev S$ 1.05)

•1QFY14 DPU within our expectation; topline improved q-o-q
•Forex exposure hedged till end FY14, looking to hedge up to 1H15
•Maintain BUY, nudged down TP to S$0.99

Highlights
1Q DPU of 2.0 Scts in line. The annualised DPU is 2.5% below its IPO forecast mainly due to higher operating expenses (namely higher depreciation charge) and forex losses. However, management remains confident that it will achieve its projections for FY14 as disclosed in its prospectus.

Tat Hong : Australia disappoints (DBSV)

Tat Hong,
Hold, Downgrade from BUY  S$1.09,
Australia disappoints
Price Target : 12-month S$ 1.00 (Prev S$ 1.43)

•1Q14 below as Australia underperforms
•Australia outlook remains uncertain leading up to elections in September
•Cut FY14F/FY15F earnings by 46%/26%
•Downgrade to HOLD , TP cut to S$1.00

Below expectations as Australia underperforms.  TAT returned a poor set of 1Q14 results, missing our and consensus expectations.  Earnings came in at only S$8.2m (-51% y-o-y), dragged by Australia’s poor performance.  Revenue declined 18% y-o-y to S$176m, due to declines in Distribution, Crane Rental and General Equipment Rental segments.  Gross margins shrank 2.8ppts to 36.4%.  1Q14 earnings contributed to only 11% of our initial forecast.

Midas Holdings : Banking on a strong 2H (CIMB)

Midas Holdings
Current S$0.52
Target S$0.70
Banking on a strong 2H

 2Q13net profit recovered from a net loss in 1Q. This was due to strong core revenue and positive contributions from its associate, NPRT. We expect 2H13to compensate for theweak1H13.Midas is on track to meet our full-year target given the current earnings momentum.

1H13 net profit formed 25% of our full-year estimate and 11% of consensus. We deem this in line as we expect FY13 revenues to be back-end loaded with the resumption of high speed rail (HSR) contracts in 2H. We maintain our Outperform call and target price, still based on 1.29x CY13 P/BV (20% discount to 2010-11 P/BV). The catalyst is the resumption of HSR contracts.

曾淵滄專欄 19.08.13:不要奢望樓價狂跌

前一個周末,我受聘到深圳協助當地一家地產公司推銷樓盤,該樓盤位於蛇口,蛇口算是相當靠近前海,一個新的特區中的特區,因此,發展商當然也很努力地推銷前海概念。

一向以來,我都知道深圳樓價不低,但是,當日到了現場,問了問樓價,連我也嚇一跳。原來樓盤最低價是每平方米6萬元人民幣,頂層特色單位是每平方米8萬元人民幣,算起來是每平方呎1萬港元,蛇口的對岸就是香港新界的天水圍,現在蛇口的樓價竟然是天水圍的兩倍,為甚麼還有這麼多人說香港樓價太貴?

Amara Holdings : Stellar 2Q13 results (Phillip)

Amara Holdings
Target Price (SGD) 0.74
Closing Price (SGD) 0.570
Stellar 2Q13 results

 Company Overview
Amara Holdings Limited is a home-grown integrated lifestyle group principally engaged in three business areas, namely, hotel investment and management, property investment and development, and specialty restaurants and food services.

• Stellar performance in 2Q13; 2Q13 revenue at $17.9mn, recording a 15.1% y-y increase, 2Q13 PATMI at $2.1mn, representing a 51.6% y-y growth.
• 1H13 revenue increased 33.8% to S$42.5mn, 1H13 PATMI

Pan-United : Acquires MIIF's stake in CXP port (DBSV)

Pan-United Corporation,
Buy S$0.91,
Acquires MIIF's stake in CXP port
Price Target : 12-Month S$ 1.21 (Prev S$ 1.16)

•2Q13 earnings within expectation
•Acquisition of MIIF’s stake in CXP is earnings accretive
•Raise FY13F/FY14F earnings by 2%/10%
•Maintain BUY with S$1.21 TP

Within expectations. Revenue grew 5% to S$190m – within expectations - driven by better Ready Mix Concrete volumes.  Net profit for the quarter included a S$2.2m doubtful debt provision relating to work for Alpine Bau GmbH at packages C917 and C918 of the Downtown Line 2 involving King Albert Park, Tan Kah Kee and Sixth Avenue Stations.  Stripping out 2Q13’s doubtful debt provision, net earnings would have grown 11% to S$12m – within expectations.  1H13 earnings now account for 43% (47% excluding provision) of our forecasts.

Instacom shareholders approve bonus issue of free warrant per 2 shares held

Instacom shareholders approve bonus issue of free warrant per 2 shares held
Business & Markets 2013
Written by Bernama    
Friday, 16 August 2013 16:16

* Exercise price of 33 sen is at 15% discount rate to yesterday's closing price and five-day weighted average price of 39 sen, with intent for warrants to be 'in-the-money' upon listing as reward to loyal shareholders.
* A total of 351,127,130 warrants to be issued on 30 August, with final entitlement date ("ex-date") being 28 August 2013.

Sunday, August 18, 2013

Dr Chan Yan Chong’s Column 16.08.2013

16 AUGUST 2013
Dr Chan Yan Chong’s Column
By Dr Chan Yan Chong

After a good rally, markets finally gave in to a correction last week largely due to some concerns in the US stock market after several Federal Reserve officials unequivocally talked about a reduction in the bond buyback programme as some felt that September could spell the beginning of the end of Quantitative Easing (QE) III while others spoke of October as a possible date. Is the day drawing near?

To the surprise of many investors, the end of QE III should strengthen the US dollar but the greenback fell against the yen during the past fortnight so much so that it created some hype among the media. The rise in the yen sparked off a correction in the Nikkei 225 as a strong yen is contrary to Abenomics, which aims to allow the yen to weaken so as to boost exports.

Gabriel Gan: Economic Fundamentals Winning The Battle Versus Stimulus Exit?

16 AUGUST 2013
Economic Fundamentals Winning The Battle Versus Stimulus Exit?
By Gabriel Gan

It was Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Ben Bernanke who first fired the salvo by talking of an end to Quantitative Easing (QE) III. It led to a meaningful correction in the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), which lost almost 1,000 points over a month from May to June.

Sensing that investors did not like his new stance on the QE, he quickly made an about-turn by announcing to the whole world that the Fed’s decisions were not yet cast in stone and dependent on US economic data. Other Fed officials joined in the party resulting in the DJIA reclaiming the lost points plus more.

《老謝看世界》美債 原物料 新興市場 熊來了!QE退場?全球市場高度警戒!



Long-term prospects for Parkson still good

Long-term prospects for Parkson still good
Features
Written by Kamarul Azhar and Fatin Rasyiqah Mustaza of The Edge Malaysia    
Wednesday, 14 August 2013 00:00

GRANTED, the lacklustre growth of China's retail and consumer market has pulled Parkson Holdings Bhd's earnings down so far this year, but the medium to long-term prospects for the group, especially its China operation, are still good.

Briefly, department stores in China are facing challenges from the slowing economy, rising wage costs and heightened competition, not to mention the advent of online shopping.

Courts Asia : Decent set of results, Longer term play (Phillip)

Courts Asia Limited
Target Price (SGD) 1.03
Closing Price (SGD) 0.89
Decent set of results, Longer term play

 Company Overview
Courts Asia is a leading electrical, IT products, and furniture retailer in Singapore and Malaysia. Courts Asia also offers in-house credit facilities, generating additional revenue for the retailer. Courts Asia will be expanding to Indonesia, with the opening of a Megastore in Eastern Jakarta by FY2015.

• 1Q14 results decent with earnings of S$7.0 million.

GLOBAL MALAYSIA SERIES #3 with Tan Sri Tony Fernandes

DREAMING BIG
DOING THE IMPOSSIBLE
GLOBAL MALAYSIA SERIES #3 with Tan Sri Tony Fernandes
13th August 2013 (Tuesday)10 am to 12 pm
Securities Commission , Bukit Kiara



Is The Local Property Market In A Bubble



Courts Asia : Key Takeaways From Results Briefing (UOBKH)

Courts Asia
Share Price S$0.89
Target Price S$1.14
Key Takeaways From Results Briefing

Valuation
• Maintain BUY recommendation with a reduced target price of S$1.14 based on a peer-average PE of 13.5x applied to our FY14F EPS estimate of 8.5 S cents.

Key Takeaways
• Lack of new IT product launches in 1QFY14 hurt Singapore’s sales, which resulted in a same-store sales growth (SSSG) of -0.9%. However, excluding bulk sales of IT products, Singapore registered a strong SSSG of 7.6% on the back of stronger sales of electrical goods (due to the haze). We expect IT sales to rebound in 2HFY14 on the back of a potential new product release from Apple on 10 September.

Star Publications : Difficult Challenges, No Easy Solutions (MIB)

Star Publications (Malaysia)
Sell (from Hold)
Share price: MYR2.79
Target price: MYR2.12 (from MYR2.65)
Difficult Challenges, No Easy Solutions

Hard to call the bottom. We understand the pace of The Star’s YoY print adex contraction accelerated after the 13th general election (13GE) and is unlikely to improve markedly going forward. We cut our earnings estimates by 24-27% as we now expect its print adex to contract by 4% this year (+0% previously). As we still expect an annual DPS of 18sen, Star would dividend out more than what it earns. Following our lower earnings estimates, we also cut our TP by 20% to MYR2.12. With 24% downside potential and a weak outlook, we downgrade Star to SELL.
Warren E. Buffett(沃伦•巴菲特)
Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful
别人贪婪时我恐惧, 别人恐惧时我贪婪
投资只需学好两门课: 一,是如何给企业估值,二,是如何看待股市波动
吉姆·罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)
“错过时机”胜于“搞错对象”:不会全军覆没!”
做自己熟悉的事,等到发现大好机会才投钱下去

乔治·索罗斯(George Soros)

“犯错误并没有什么好羞耻的,只有知错不改才是耻辱。”

如果操作过量,即使对市场判断正确,仍会一败涂地。

李驰(中国巴菲特)
高估期间, 卖对, 不卖也对, 买是错的。
低估期间, 买对, 不买也是对, 卖是错的。

Tan Teng Boo


There’s no such thing as defensive stocks.Every stock can be defensive depending on what price you pay for it and what value you get,
冷眼(冯时能)投资概念
“买股票就是买公司的股份,买股份就是与陌生人合股做生意”。
合股做生意,则公司股份的业绩高于一切,而股票的价值决定于盈利。
价值是本,价格是末,故公司比股市重要百倍。
曹仁超-香港股神/港股明灯
1.有智慧,不如趁势
2.止损不止盈
成功者所以成功,是因为不怕失败!失败者所以失败,是失败后不再尝试!
曾淵滄-散户明灯
每逢灾难就是机会,而是在灾难发生时贱价买股票,然后放在一边,耐性地等灾难结束
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