Saturday, August 10, 2013

兴业投行: 涨幅更胜综指 优质小型股前景看俏

兴业投行: 涨幅更胜综指 优质小型股前景看俏
Created 08/07/2013 - 08:27
(吉隆坡6日讯)小型股指数涨幅超越富时隆综指,兴业投资银行看好本地优质小型股前景,尤其是基本面稳健,回酬及派息率稳定的小型股。

兴业投行区域研究主管陈森(译音)今日在《2013年兴业投行股海遗珠-大马30优质小型股》专书推介礼上表示,富时小型股项指数在今年4月24日至7月12日间,涨幅达21.7%,超越同期富时隆综指的12.9%。

“小型股过去一直被市场忽略,一些小型股本益比达11倍,两年复合年增长率(CAGR)为13%,且拥有更佳的流通率,虽然小型股股价波动幅度甚巨,但并不代表所有小型股均属高风险,部分优质小型股基本面稳健,回酬及派息率稳定,同样值得投资。”

Malaysia Smelting Corp - More Bumps Ahead?

Malaysia Smelting Corp -
Target Price: MYR2.35
Price: MYR3.36
More Bumps Ahead?

Smelt’s  MYR1.1m  2QFY13  core  net  loss,  mainly  due  to  losses  at  PT Koba Tin, and lower tin prices, was a letdown. Hence, we are cutting our FY13/FY14  estimates  by  43.4%/22.8%.  Be  aware  of  a  potential impairment on its KM Resources (KMR) investment. Thus, we set aside MYR0.50  per  share  from  our  1.0x  FY14F  book-based  valuation  and derive a new FV of MYR2.35. We also downgrade the stock to SELL.  

RIVERSTONE: Nitrile Glove Demand To Grow 20% A Year

RIVERSTONE: Nitrile Glove Demand To Grow 20% A Year
Written by Sim Kih
Wednesday, 07 August 2013 10:45

A MALAYSIAN company listed on SGX is catching the attention of investors: Riverstone’s stock price has surged almost 40% year-to-date to 63 cents recently, outperforming the FTSE ST All-Share Index (which returned to January levels).

Riverstone is a leading glove maker headquartered in Malaysia, exporting to customers worldwide.  And Malaysia, with its abundance of rubber trees, is a country that exports more than 60% of the world’s supply of rubber gloves.

Technics Oil & Gas : Associate’s Loss Threatens Divestment Value(RHB)

Technics Oil & Gas
Target Price: SGD0.64
Price: SGD0.82
Associate’s Loss Threatens Divestment Value

In its 3Q13 results released yesterday, Technics Oil & Gas (TGH) reported larger-than-expected losses. More worrying was the losses of its associates and the implication on the group’s divestment of Norr Offshore Group (NOG). TGH’s current share price – at 2.8x ex-NOG P/BV – overvalues its core operations, which are suffering from losses and low earnings visibility. Maintain SELL, with a TP of SGD0.64.

 Margins shrink on NOG’s surprise loss. We will only focus on TGH’s q-o-q results as the deconsolidation of its subsidiary, NOG (Not Rated, 5279 TT), has rendered a y-o-y comparison inapplicable. TGH’s 3Q13 revenue surged 70% q-o-q to SGD13.85m, but gross margin shrank to 18% from 53% while its core operating loss widened to SGD1.5m from SGD0.4m in 2Q13. The big surprise was NOG’s SGD0.5m loss vs earnings averaging SGD0.7m in 1Q and 2Q.

OUE Hospitality Trust - Why does it need rent support for 15 years?

OUE Hospitality Trust - Why does it need rent support for 15 years?

3/8/2013 – OUE Hospitality Trust (OUE-H Trust) has held onto its issue price, after listing on the Singapore Exchange on July 25 at the lower end of its indicative price range at S$0.88 per unit.

The IPO was 19.1 times subscribed by retail investors and fully subscribed by institutional investors.

UOB KayHian Research suggests a trading range of S$0.90 to S$0.94.

Sunway REIT : Focusing On Organic Growth (RHB)

Sunway REIT
Target Price: MYR1.52
Price: MYR1.33
Focusing On Organic Growth

SREIT’s FY13 earnings were boosted by proactive capital management and  contributions  from  new  assets.  Going  forward,  it  is  likely  to  focus on organic growth and allocate MYR500m as refurbishment capex over the  next  two  to  three  years.  That  said,  despite  the  robust  growth prospects, the rise in bond yields is likely to pressure sector valuations. Maintain NEUTRAL.

- Strong results overall. Sunway REIT (SREIT)’s 4QFY13 core net profit of  MYR55.5m  (+15.4%  y-o-y; flat  q-o-q)  brought  its  total FY13  earnings to  MYR218.8m  (+14.8%  y-o-y).  Earnings  were  boosted  by  the  strong performance  of  its  retail  assets,  new  contribution  from  Sunway  Medical Centre  (acquired  in  Dec  2012)

Yongnam : Concerns over Slower Pace of Order Intake (Citi)

Yongnam Holdings (YNAM.SI)
Price (05 Aug 13) S$0.31
Target price S$0.28
Downgrade to Sell: Concerns over Slower Pace of Order Intake

 Less Attractive Risk-Reward Profile Amid Slower Order Intake — We downgrade Yongnam from Buy to Sell on the back of [1] its strong ytd performance (+29% ytd); and [2] concerns over the pace of order win intake (S$57mn ytd). While the order win outlook remains promising, our downgrade reflects risk that 2013 full-year wins may disappoint as a result of i) further tender delays and/ or ii) lower-than-expected winrate. We reduce our FY13 earnings estimate by 28% to account for [1] a moderated order win projection (S$250mn from S$380mn); [2] lower gross margin expectations (23% from 25%); and [3] the S$5.1mn provision recognized in 2Q13. Our FY14-15E estimates are lowered by 10-14%. We value Yongnam based on an unchanged ~7x FY14E PER, translating to a target price of S$0.28/share.

Friday, August 9, 2013

投資學堂:銀行股着重ROE - 譚紹興

據聞股神畢菲特一向不大理會市盈率、市賬率等,與股價有直接關係的比率,反而較看重從企業層面出發的股東回報率(ROE),股東回報率雖與股價沒有太直接關係,但一間能維持高股東回報率的企業,不會長時間被市場忽略,其股價最終會因而上升。

市賬率低未必超值
在各類股份中,股東回報率的效用在銀行股中最為明顯,翻看本地銀行股的股東回報率與市賬率的排位,不難察覺到股東回報率越高的銀行股,其市賬率亦越高,正如股東回報率一向最高的本地銀行恒生(011),股東回報率高達22%,而其市賬率高達2.5倍,亦是本地銀行股中最高。其次便是中銀香港(2388),其股東回報率為14.5%,乃本地銀行股中第二高,而其市賬率為1.6倍,亦是本地銀行股中二高。

罗德里工程会否恢复升势?

罗德里工程会否恢复升势?
文: 韩巍 (译:朱爱伦) 2013年08月06日 技术分析
从每周图表来看,罗德里工程(Rotary Engineering)在这三年来一直走低,但它最近却升破了阻力趋势线。看来他的下行趋势将会结束。不容忽视的是,当海峡时报指数(STI)于6月份大幅度滑落时,罗德里工程却能稳住其股价的走势,这也是显示它带有冲劲的另一个迹象。

从每日图表来看,罗德里工程在过去几天进行盘整。成交量大减意味着卖盘疲弱。

可考虑在其股价回落时买入,预期它会在盘整后恢复升势。

AirAsia X Berhad - Would it have run out of cash if it didn't list?

AirAsia X Berhad - Would it have run out of cash if it didn't list?

9/7/2013 – When AirAsia X Berhad lists on July 10 (tomorrow) it will be this year's biggest IPO, raising RM988 mln.

But it seems AirAsia X had little choice but to undertake an IPO.

With a debt-equity ratio of 2.4 times, it was already up to the gazoo in debt, but still has to pay for 22 Airbus A330-300s during the next four years.

It had to refund passengers who booked to fly on five cancelled routes, while paying those passengers to take other airlines.

末日博士:人幣應適度貶值

末日博士:人幣應適度貶值

【本報訊】人民幣價值在中國經濟轉弱時應是升或是跌﹖IMF認為人民幣仍然低估10%至15%。有末日博士稱號的麥嘉華(Marc Faber)認為人民幣應該適度貶值。

就IMF評估人民幣仍被低估,麥嘉華接受《每日經濟新聞》專訪時稱,IMF工作人員不生活在中國,一國貨幣政策要圍繞國際機構標準制訂嗎?對於人民幣貶值多少,他不清楚,這需要綜合國際環境和中國自己的經濟情況考慮。而人民幣應該適度貶值,當然中國政府可能有其他的考量。

麥嘉華稱如果他是中國政府,他會選擇人民幣貶值。因為一國匯率政策是要考慮國際環境的,目前儘管看起來美國經濟在復蘇,但對中國出口的需求不會有很大改善;歐洲的問題不花10年解決不掉,日本又在大幅貶值,拉美、東南亞因為中國經濟放緩也都面臨問題。從純市場的角度,先下手為強。

Tan Teng Boo, talks on whether it’s really all bad news for the Malaysian economy this year.


Sunway REIT :Potential for more downside if interest rates continue to rise (CS)

Sunway REIT
Maintain NEUTRAL
Price (06 Aug 13 , RM) 1.33
TP (prev. TP RM) 1.40 (1.62
Potential for more downside if interest rates continue to rise

● SunREIT’s FY13 distributable income of RM231 mn, up 14% YoY, were in line with expectations driven by lower finance cost and strong rental reversions at Sunway Pyramid and Sunway Carnival.

● With the suspension of Perunding Ranhill Worley's down-stream license, we believe that the initial hopes of Ranhill Worley Parsons (RWP) taking up the vacant space at Sunway Tower is now less likely to materialise. There is also the risk that RWP could look to vacate some of the space it occupies, although Sunway Tower only makes up 4% of total NPI.

StarHub :Mixed signals (CIMB)

StarHub  
Mixed signals
S$4.27 -
Tgt. S$4.54

▊ Starhub’s annualised 1H13 core net profit was a little above CIMB and consensus by 2% and 5%, respectively, on surprises in NGNBN adoption grants and interest expense. Results were mixed with growing mobile and fixed services offset by pay TV and broadband. As expected, it declared a DPS of 10 Scts and maintained its guidance. We raise our FY13-15 EPS estimates by 3% and our DCF-based target price by 2 Scts to reflect a higher NGNBN adoption grant, which ends in FY15. Starhub remains a Neutral with a DCF-based target price (WACC 7.8%) as it lacks re-rating catalysts. Switch to M1.

Hyflux : Not quite the spice girl yet(CIMB)

Hyflux  
Not quite the spice girl yet
S$1.30 - Tgt. S$1.35

▊ Results aside, HYF did well operationally by executing high-profile projects on time. We are not excited by the current project win-rate, but we like its slow and steady transformation into a utility play. HYF's results trailed our lofty expectations due to lack of new sizeable EPC projects, with 2Q13 and 1H13 net profit forming 25% and 35% of our full-year estimate, respectively. We cut our FY13-15 EPS by 4%-24% to reflect more achievable order-win assumptions. Our SOP- based target price is reduced to S$1.35. Our Neutral call is intact as HYF's project win-rate needs to accelerate prior to any share price re-rating.

曾淵滄專欄 09.08.13:內地樓價豈能不升

傳廣州窗口公司越秀集團有興趣買創興銀行(1111),越秀集團在香港有兩家上市公司,另有一家沒有在港掛牌、但在廣州規模不小的越秀金融,因此,越秀集團有一定金融業管理經驗,並非外行人,若越秀集團能成功買下創興銀行,極可能把越秀金融也注入,並改名越秀銀行。屆時越秀集團在港就有三家上市企業,彼此有協同效應。

近期,多家內房企業發表半年業績,都很不錯,買樓多達標,中國的一線及二線城市的樓價仍在創新高,因此,那些在一線及二線城市囤有大量土地的內房股,值得看好。

Yongnam: Still in with a chance (MKE)

Yongnam Holdings
Buy (unchanged)
Share price: SGD0.31
Target price: SGD0.465 (from SGD0.485)
Still in with a chance

 2Q13 results within expectations. Results were mostly within expectation, including a one-off SGD5.1m provision for the Alpine Bau MRT project, which hit bottom line. Excluding this item, net profit would be up 13% yoy and 19% qoq. Despite ongoing speculation about Myanmar contract wins, we are positive on the strength of its core business and see Yongnam as a key beneficiary of an unprecedented infrastructure boom in the region. Recent share price weakness represents an opportunity to accumulate, maintain BUY.

Hi-P International : Strong 2H Performance Seen (RHB)

Hi-P International
Target Price: SGD0.96
Price: SGD0.83
Strong 2H Performance Seen

HIP’s 2QFY13 results were in line with our estimates as PATAMI swung from negative a year ago to SGD10.9m on the back of revenue of SGD285.0m (+13.2% y-o-y). As its existing clients are ramping up their new programs, Management is upbeat on its 2H performance. ReiterateBUY, with an unchanged SGD0.96 TP, based on a blended 13.5x FY13/FY14 P/E, -1 SD on the stock’s 3-year historical forward P/E.

• Results in line. Boosted by increasing orders from the group’s existing customers, HiP managed to generate SGD17.8m in net profits in 1HFY13 compared with losses last year. This accounted for 31.7% of our full year estimates. The group’s 1H gross margins expanded by 4 ppts to 10.6% due to enhanced capacity utilisation as well as a highermargin product mix.

Thursday, August 8, 2013

马熔锡机构 两年财测大砍

马熔锡机构 两年财测大砍
Created 08/08/2013 - 12:06
目标价:2.35令吉

最新进展

马熔锡机构(MSC,5916,主板工业产品股)截至今年6月30日财年次季,净亏487万9000令吉,唯亏损幅度较去年同期的4621万2000令吉大幅收窄。

次季营业额按年下滑25.6%至4亿449万8000令吉。

首半年净利达1017万1000令吉,上财年同期则净亏4053万9000令吉;营业额跌35.6%至8亿5203万令吉。

AirAsia X shares face retreat on end of stabilising action

AirAsia X shares face retreat on end of stabilising action

BY YVONNE TAN
YVONNE@THESTAR.COM.MY

PETALING JAYA: Maybank Investment Bank (Maybank IB) has ceased its stabilising action for AirAsia X Bhd after buying a total of 65.53 million shares post-listing of the company on Bursa Malaysia.

Analysts now say without further support from the stabilising manager, the stock could see some downward pressure when it’s re-quoted on Monday after the Hari Raya break.

“The share price could take a beating, but investors may want to scoop up some value from there,” said one analyst, who has been tracking the company since it was listed on July 10.

Wilmar 2Q13 results: down QoQ, but up YoY (Phillip)

Wilmar International Ltd
Target Price (SGD) 3.61
- Previous Target Price (SGD) 3.70
2Q13 results: down QoQ, but up YoY

 Company Overview Wilmar International Limited is Asia’s leading agribusiness group. Its business activities include oil palm cultivation, oilseeds crushing, edible oils refining, sugar, specialty fats, oleo-chemicals and biodiesel manufacturing and grains processing.

 2Q13 core profit of US$245mn (+42% YoY, -22% QoQ)
 Lower raw material prices to benefit downstream business

Thai Beverage: Spirits do not scare us (CIMB)

Thai Beverage
Spirits do not scare us
S$0.54 -
Tgt. S$0.74

▊ Recent fears that the impact of an excise tax increase and a cut in rice subsidies on farmers’ incomes will affect Thai Bev’s spirits business are unfounded. Rice farmers constitute a small portion of the white spirits customer base and any drop in volumes from tax hikes is temporal. Revenues will still increase this year because higher ASPs will compensate for any fall in volumes. We tweak our estimates slightly for housekeeping matters, which trims our SOP-based target price. Maintain Outperform. Catalysts could come from corporate restructuring.

Technics : Two Disquieting Words: Profit Warning (DMG)

Technics Oil & Gas
Target Price: SGD0.64
Price: SGD0.87
Two Disquieting Words: Profit Warning

TGH issued a profit warning last Friday, confirming our earlier fears it may go into losses in 3QFY13. We see no fundamental reasons to hold the stock given TGH’s poor orderbook, deteriorating profitability, and a gap year in earnings before its compressor-leasing business builds sufficient volume. It is no longer a dividend play, with zero dividend likely this year. Maintain SELL, with TP of SGD0.64.

VARD : Hard Times In Brazil But 2Q13 Could Be Bottom (RHB)

VARD
Target Price: SGD1.10
Price: SGD0.81
Hard Times In Brazil But 2Q13 Could Be Bottom

 We hosted Vard for a two-day non-deal roadshow in Singapore with >30 analysts and fund managers where interest was strong, with a focus on the negative surprises in Brazil. While Vard has taken a beating post its 2Q13 results, its FY13F valuations at 9.4x P/E and 3.7x EV/EBITDA (ex. construction loans) are attractive. We expect it to rebound on potential new orders in Brazil and signs of margin stabilising from 3Q13.

MISC : Holding steady (HwangDBS)

MISC
BUY RM5.29
KLCI : 1,782.51
Price Target : 12 MONTHS RM 6.45
Holding steady

Petronas to directly own new LNG vessels; existing MISC vessels not affected
At 1x book, we believe share price does not reflect much of the potential of LNG vessels
Near term growth drivers intact; stock remains undervalued
Maintain Buy and RM6.45 SOP-based TP

Maintain Buy. Petronas announced that it will directly procure and own its next phase of LNG vessels. The move is disappointing, removing a potential long-term growth avenue for MISC. However, with MISC trading at 1x book,

Riverstone performed well in 2Q’13 (Limtan)

RIVERSTONE
S$0.63-RSTON SP
 Riverstone performed well in 2Q’13 with sales rising 16% to RM90.43mln and profit rising 31% to RM14.4mln, bringing 1H’13 sales up 13% to RM171mln and profit up 27% to RM26mln.

 This is slightly ahead of expectations and reflects better than expected productivity improvement as well as favourable raw material prices.

 Good working capital management saw operating cash flow rise slightly for 1H13 to RM21mln, more than enough to offset capex of RM8mln, giving a free cash flow of RM13mln.

 The company continues to be debt free with net cash of RM91mln.

Yongnam : Weak margins, slow order book (DBSV)

Yongnam Holdings Ltd:
FULLY VALUED (downgrade from BUY); S$0.31;
Weak margins, slow order book
Price Target : 12-Month S$ 0.28 (Prev S$ 0.41)

•2Q13 results below expectations on weak margins
•Delay in Yangon Airport tender results weakens near term catalyst
•Poor outlook as margins remain pressured and order book shrinks; cut FY13F/FY14F earnings by 44%/25%
•Downgrade to FULLY VALUED, TP lowered to S$0.28

Below expectations.  2Q13 results were below expectations.  Net profit declined by 29% to S$8.6m, despite sales growing by 47% to S$115.1m. This was due to lower gross margins and a S$5m provision as one customer involved in 2 packages of Downtown Line work filed for insolvency.  1H13 earnings now stand at S$20m, making up 36% of our previous full year estimate of S$55.7m.

Hi-P International : Improving earnings outlook (NRA)

Hi-P International - 2Q13 results review
Improving earnings outlook
Synopsis: Hi-P International 2Q13 revenue increased by 13.2% yoy to S$285.0m and net profit of $10.9m (S$2.1m loss in 2Q12) mainly due to increased orders from existing customers

Hi-P International 2Q13 revenue increased by 13.2% yoy to S$285.0m and net profit of $10.9m (S$2.1m loss in 2Q12) mainly due to increased orders from existing customers. Gross profit margins improved by 4% pts to 10% (declined 1.3% pts qoq) due to lesser contribution from high level (higher component content) assembly projects and a positive shift in product mix, partially offset by increased labor costs and overheads.

CapitaLand : Key takeaways from Hong Kong NDR (CS)

CapitaLand
Price (02 Aug 13, S$) 3.30
Target price (S$) 4.53¹

 Key takeaways from Hong Kong NDR
■ CS hosted CapitaLand’s post-1H13 NDR in Hong Kong. CAPL was represented by CFO Arthur Lang, SVP Investor relations Harold Woo and AVP CFO’s office Chang Rui Hua. Many investors were keen on getting updates after the company’s recent organisational restructuring, especially given the recent changes include the perceived “U-turn” on Australand (ALZ).

曾淵滄專欄 08.08.13:樓價高企 辣招難撤

好一段日子前,我指出阿里巴巴要上市,必先炒上同類股,騰訊(700)就成了當炒目標,炒風很盛,但再盛的炒風也會出現震倉,昨日一震,就震掉4.1%。匯控(005)跌勢不止,日股狂跌,A股也一樣不濟,最終恒指也跟跌334點,跌幅大過前日的298點,兩日跌幅高達633點,相信許多人會擔心反彈浪到此為止。

美多位聯儲局官員近兩日高調大談退市日期,有的認為9月就該減少買債,有的認為10月才適合。看來,減少買債的日子應該是近了。

理論上,美國退市,美元應該轉強,但是,昨日美元兌日圓都大幅下跌,日圓上升導致日股大跌,安倍的政策就是要日圓貶值,希望透過日圓貶值來推動日本的出口競爭力,因此,昨日日圓的升值,可能也是另一種形式的震倉。

Mapletree Grtr China Commercial Trust : Strong set of results as retail sales and positive office reversions materialise (SCB)

Mapletree Grtr China Commercial Trust
PRICE as of 31 Jul 2013 SGD 0.94
PRICE TARGET SGD 0.94
Strong set of results as retail sales and positive office reversions materialise
 Mapletree Greater China Commercial Trust‟s (MAGIC) maiden set of results was in line with our estimate, but beat prospectus forecasts by 8%.
 We adjust our DPU estimates to account for a weaker SGD against the HKD and RMB.
 Discretionary Hong Kong retail sales grew 31% y/y in 5M13 and we continue to see MAGIC as a good proxy to the sector, with retail sales at Festival Walk growing 8% y/y.
 We upgrade the stock to In-Line (from Underperform) on valuations. Our price target remains unchanged at SGD 0.94/unit.

Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust :Looking for acquisitions in 2H13 (SCB)

Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust
PRICE as of 2 Aug 2013 SGD 0.51
PRICE TARGET SGD 0.51
Looking for acquisitions in 2H13

Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust’s 2Q13 DPU was 8% above our estimate because of one-off payments.

Performance of the six assets acquired in 2012 is improving.

LMRT could seek further inorganic growth in 2H13. We expect sizeable assets to be part-financed by equity.

Wednesday, August 7, 2013

4大利空攔路‧馬股恐倒退100點

4大利空攔路‧馬股恐倒退100點
Created 08/07/2013 - 17:30
(吉隆坡7日訊)美量化寬鬆醞釀退場、國際信評機構列大馬為負面觀察名單,令馬股面臨馬幣貶值、財政紀律、貨幣緊縮、無風險收益率正常化的4大凶劫,前路不僅升勢受壓,若遲遲無法突破關鍵水平,還唯恐倒退逾100點。

同時,8月雖是次季財報季節,但在企業盈利展望平平下催化劑料有限,更重要的是,棕油價較預期疲弱,還可能導致市場的盈利預測掀起下調風。

Yongnam : Slow down. Bend ahead (CIMB)

Yongnam Holdings
Slow down. Bend ahead.
S$0.31 -
Tgt. S$0.28

▊ The lack of new, chunky contract wins and recent share-price weakness have prompted us to turn bearish. The margin squeeze has become a mainstay, while the Myanmar angle might no longer be the reason to own the stock. The 2H13 results were below our expectations, at 46% of our full-year forecasts. We cut core FY13-15 EPS by 22-35% to assume a lower revenue mix from the higher-margin division. Thus, our target price (6x CY14 P/E, its three-year mean) drops to S$0.28. Lack of convincing contract wins and squeeze on margins are de-rating catalysts despite Myanmar angle. Downgrade to Underperform from Outperform.

Hektar REIT : Poised For Growth (RHB)

Hektar REIT
Target Price: MYR1.46
Price: MYR1.54
Poised For Growth

HEKT’s 2QFY13 net profit was in line with expectations. The growth in its 1HFY13 net profit was boosted by contribution from its new Kedah malls. Major refurbishment plans for Central Square have been finalised and works will be completed by end-2014. We maintain our NEUTRAL call on the stock. Despite HEKT’s consistent dividend, rising bond yields will likely exert pressure on sector valuations.

• Results in line. HEKT’s 2QFY13’s net profit of MYR10.8m (+16.5% y-oy; -2.2% q-o-q) were in line with expectations. The incremental earnings contribution from its two Kedah malls led to 1HFY13 net profit growing 15.1% y-o-y to MYR21.9m (1HFY12: MYR19.0m). Overall portfolio occupancy remained stable at 94.2%. YTD rental reversion was healthy at 8% for the 5% of net lettable area (NLA) renewed thus far. HEKT announced a DPU of 2.6 sen during the quarter, bringing total 1HFY13 DPU to 5.2 sen.

Neratel : Selldown Unwarranted As Share Sale Misconstrued (RHB)

Neratel
Target Price: SGD0.93
Price: SGD0.77
Selldown Unwarranted As Share Sale Misconstrued

 The market has reacted negatively to the recent sale by NeraTel CEO Mr Samuel Ang of all the company’s shares under his name. To the contrary, however, our checks show that Mr Ang actually raised his stake as the parent PE fund, Northstar, has allowed him to hold a bigger stake in NeraTel as an incentive to retain him. Reiterate BUY, with a higher SGD0.93 TP, based on a 11.4x blended FY13/14 P/E (+1 SD).

Riverstone : Expect 3Q to be Equally Positive (SIAS)

Riverstone Holdings Limited
Invest
Expect 3Q to be Equally Positive
 Intrinsic Value S$0.680
 Prev Closing S$0.630

 Riverstone posted outstanding 2Q FY13 results with revenue and PAT rising 15.5% and 31.2% YoY to RM90.4m and RM14.4m respectively. Both figures formed 48.5% and 59.2% of our previous forecasts. This set of results was backed by several favorable industry factors, namely continuous decline in raw material prices and favorable exchange rate between April and June 2013. We expect the former to sustain and contribute a healthy gross margin for Riverstone. For the latter, the US$/RM rate climbed from 3.08 around April 2013 to around 3.15 in July 2013. It is now hovering at approximately 3.23, suggesting more forex gain for this quarter. 3Q results are likely to be pleasant.

CSC Steel : 1HFY13 Results In Line (RHB)

CSC Steel
Target Price: MYR1.72
Price: MYR1.30
1HFY13 Results In Line

CSC Steel (CSCS)’s 1HFY13 earnings of MYR25.1m (+54.3% y-o-y) were in line with our and street estimates despite a sharp decline in 2Q. The poor 2Q results were mainly due to lower sales volume, narrower profit margin and a significant write down in inventories. We think the outlook for CSCS is improving although the industry remains challenging.

Maintain Trading BUY on CSCS, with our MYR1.72 FV unchanged.

Golden Agri Resources 2QFY13 Results Let The Street Down (RHB)

Golden Agri Resources
Target Price: SGD0.63
Price: SGD0.53
2QFY13 Results Let The Street Down

We maintain our BUY call on GGR with the FV unchanged at SGD0.63. Although 1HFY13 earnings fell short of the consensus estimate, it was well within our forecast. The stock is, at worst, fairly valued. We believe the company is the best positioned for a mergers and acquisition (M&A) exercise, and, should acquisitions materialise, its stock valuation could turn out to be lower than currently priced in.

• Short of consensus. GGR’s annualised 1HFY13 core earnings were in line with our forecast of USD319.5m. However, they fell short of consensus expectations by 20.0% (mean estimate).

Mudajaya : I've got the power! (CIMB)

Mudajaya
Current RM2.66
Target RM3.25
I've got the power!

 Domestic power-plant construction is coming back and Mudajaya is set to emerge as the main winner. Our checks with management reaffirm this view. Investors should revisit this stock as newsflow on power-plant awards could be good in the next 6-12 months.

Our target price is intact at a 40% discount to RNAV. Mudajaya is the dominant local power-plant contractor. Power-plant jobs make up 60% of its tender book. Maintain Outperform with catalysts to come from: 1) one likely power-plant award in 2H13; 2) FSA for its Indian IPP; and 3) regional power deals.

Wilmar : Commendable 2Q13 results(CIMB)

Wilmar International
Commendable 2Q13 results
S$3.15 -
Tgt. S$3.74

▊ 1H13 core net profit formed 44% of our FY13 forecast and 41% of consensus, which we deem to be in line with expectations as we expect stronger contributions from sugar and palm oil in 2H. The oilseeds and grains division stayed profitable in 2Q13 despite the bird flu scare. Wilmar posted higher yoy refining margins in 2Q and appears unaffected by the rising palm processing capacity in Indonesia thus far. We keep our FY13-15 EPS estimates and SOP-based target price unchanged. We maintain our Outperform call, with the catalyst of improving FY13 earnings outlook.

Globetronics : Solid quarter (DBSV)

Globetronics
BUY RM2.60
KLCI : 1,795.08
Price Target : 12-Month RM 3.50
Solid quarter

• 2Q13 net profit of RM14m was within expectation
• Earnings were lifted by higher loading volume and margins
• Net cash grew 21% q-o-q to RM0.47/share by end 2Q13
• Maintain BUY rating and RM3.50 TP, supported by FY13-15F net yields of 5-8%

Highlights
Results in line. 2Q13 net profit grew 46% y-o-y to RM14.1m, on the back of RM85.5m revenue (+23% y-o-y). This takes 1H13 net profit to RM24.3m, which is 47% of our full-year profit. We expect stronger 2H13 earnings.

Sunway - Rights oversubscribed by 33%

Sunway -
Price Target:3.05
Last Price:3.22
Rights oversubscribed by 33%

- We maintain our Hold on Sunway with a fair value of RM3.05/share, based on a 5% discount to our SOP value of RM3.21/share.

- The company announced yesterday that its one-for-three renounceable rights issue of up to 568.7mil shares at RM1.70/rights has been oversubscribed by 32.53%.

- As at the close of acceptance, excess application and payment for the rights Issue on 30 July 2013, Sunway had received valid acceptances and excess applications for a total of 571.05mil rights shares.

Cosco Corporation : The great famine (CIMB)

Cosco Corporation
Current S$0.75
Target S$0.46
The great famine

 We were spot on with2Q13 net profit of S$12m, although this was helped by S$2.4m tax income, without which, it would have been an ugly set of results.We expect a consensus downgrade of earnings and target prices as Cosco continues to disappoint.

2Q13 net profit met our expectation with 1H13 accounting for 46% of our FY13 forecast but grossly below consensus at only 29%. Maintain Underperform with a target price still based on 22x CY14 P/E (5-year mean). De-rating catalysts are 55% yoy earnings deterioration in FY13. We doubt that the market will be excited by the contract announcements of a US$170m rig jack-up order and Rmb590m offshore supply vessels.

曾淵滄專欄 07.08.13:恒生搶鏡值得長揸

大行早前高估匯控(005)業績,並調高預測價,在業績公佈前,紛紛預測匯控短期內見百元;匯控公佈業績後,大行卻紛紛調低匯控預測價,一沉百踩,我則依然故我,不買不賣,繼續持有已在手多年的匯控。

大行不滿意匯控業績,但是我則看不出匯控有哪方面做得不好?因此,大行對匯控業績的不滿,只是大行之前對匯控的憧憬太大。

與匯控一起公佈業績的,還有恒生銀行(011),由於恒生是匯控子公司,因此傳媒焦點全集中在匯控,忽略了恒生。實際上恒生業績好得很,半年純利多了足足一倍,核心盈利也急升三成,過去我因為長期持有匯控,心中也認為持有匯控等於持有恒生,因此也沒有多留意恒生的表現。

Golden Agri-Resources registered worse-than expected 2Q13 (Limtan)

GOLDEN AGRI-RESOURCES
S$0.525-GGR SP
 Golden Agri-Resources registered worse-thanexpected 2Q13 net income of US$45.3 million, down 58% y-o-y compared to the same period last year. This mainly attributable to the decline in Crude Palm Oil (CPO) FOB prices (-25% y-o-y) as well as rising labor and fertilizer costs, which more than offset better contributions supported by new refinery capacity coming on stream.

 The poorer-than-expected earnings came mainly from its Indonesian operations, whilst its China operations gained traction in strengthening its downstream presence via (1) developing distribution channels to enter new areas in China, (2) sourcing for cheaper raw materials, and (3) pursuing valueadded products such as specialty fats.

HI-P: Posts 2Q2013 Net Profit Of S$10.9m

HI-P: Posts 2Q2013 Net Profit Of S$10.9m
Written by Sim Kih
Sunday, 04 August 2013

HI-P INTERNATIONAL is expecting better revenue and profit in the quarters ahead after posting 2Q2013 profit after tax of S$10.9 million, reversing a loss-making quarter a year ago.

2Q2013 sales grew 13.2% year-on-year to S$285 million on increased orders.
"The increased orders were mainly driven by wireless customers including Apple, Motorola and Blackberry,” said DBS Vickers analyst Tan Ai Teng in her report dated 2 August 2013.

新興市場掀海嘯恐慌

新興市場掀海嘯恐慌

渣打滙控同中伏 新興市場玩完?
【本報綜合報道】新興市場神話破滅!匯豐昨日公佈的7月份新興市場指數(EMI)跌至49.6,是09年4月以來首次低於50盛衰分界水平,反映新興市場整體經濟產出收縮,其中金磚四國全部「見紅」,是逾4年來首見,與歐美等發達國經濟近期回春的情況背道而馳,令市場越益擔心在龍頭中國增長放慢影響下,亞洲等新興市場前路仍然崎嶇。

追蹤全球16個新興市場國家製造業及服務業採購經理人指數(PMI)的匯豐EMI,7月份由前月的50.6降至49.6。其中,中國上月綜合指數由前月的49.8進一步跌至49.5;巴西更由擴張的51.5跌至象徵萎縮的49.6;印度僅48.4、俄羅斯亦跌至48.7,創2009 年7月以來新低。

Tuesday, August 6, 2013

中钢大马 产能过剩冲击盈利

中钢大马 产能过剩冲击盈利
Created 08/06/2013 - 13:08
目标价:1.50令吉

最新进展

得益于销售量上扬,中钢大马(CSCSTEL,5094,主板工业产品股)2013财年首6个月,录得2510万令吉净利,较去年同期扬升54.3%。

无论如何,销售量和价格下滑,加上库存减记(write-down),导致公司次季净利从上季度的1750万令吉,下挫至750万令吉。

成榮發電建築業優勢擴大

成榮發電建築業優勢擴大
Created 08/05/2013 - 17:30
(吉隆坡5日訊)區域和大馬發電廠建築再度崛起,成榮集團(MUDAJYA,5085,主板建筑組)有望以其豐富的經驗為優勢,成為領域中的大贏家,加上據知標獲總值3億令吉鐵道工程,更是意外驚喜,增加該公司在建築工程的實力。

另外,根據報導,成榮標獲首邦空中園的高架鐵道和車站工程,總值3令吉令吉,這是空中園3階段計劃的首階段工程,估計2015年完工。

大眾研究指出,以發電建築為主的成榮集團,在50億令吉的投標書中發電建築佔80%,其他10億至20億是大道工程,因此,攫取新鐵道工程對該公司是意外驚喜。

《大行报告》美银美林:百货股已完成降级惟乏催化剂 目标价下调

《大行报告》美银美林:百货股已完成降级惟乏催化剂 目标价下调

美银美林表示,百货股一直被降级,面对零售供过於求、电子商务挑战,及品牌定价过高等问题,需时解决,或令能见度下降,限制重新评级的潜力。下调百盛(03368.HK)及金鹰(03308.HK)2013年财务预测8%/9%,大致维持银泰(01833.HK)及华地(01700.HK)的预测。该行亦将研究范围内的百货股目标价,平均下调20%,以反映行业降级。

维持百盛及金鹰的“中性”评级,因不利因素已大致反映於股价当中。百盛目标价由4.9元下调至3.5元,金鹰目标价由18.8元下调至12.8元。行业首选仍为银泰及华地,因两者增长高於同业,资产雄厚,银泰目标价由12.5元下调至10.5元,华地目标价由5.3元下调至5元。

現金豐厚‧CSC鋼鐵股價獲支撐

現金豐厚‧CSC鋼鐵股價獲支撐
Created 08/05/2013 - 17:35
(吉隆坡5日訊)CSC鋼鐵(CSCSTEL,5094,主板工業產品組)2013財政年次季表現走弱但仍符合預期,分析員料鋼鐵領域供應過剩短期內不會改善,使該公司餘下季度的表現將因區域競爭激烈而相對持平,惟該公司所持現金能限制股價下行情況。

該公司2013財政年次季淨利跌29.5%至1千零20萬令吉,興業研究表示,儘管次季表現走弱但仍符合預期;同時,豐隆研究認為,餘下季度的表現料因區域競爭激烈而相對持平。

興業表示,次季表現較弱主要可歸咎於鋼鐵產品價格與銷售量走低,此外,次季淨利表現也因削減庫存價值940萬令吉所拖累。

需新催化劑‧高美達評級下調

需新催化劑‧高美達評級下調
Created 08/05/2013 - 17:29
(吉隆坡5日訊)高美達(GLOMAC,5020,主板產業組)業務基本面保持強勁,惟豐隆投資研究認為該公司股價需要嶄新催化劑方可更上一層樓,因此將股票評級下調至“守住”。

將推蒲種Lakeside第五期
售價漲至80萬

豐隆研究說,高美達預計在今年杪推介蒲種Lakeside第五階段產業計劃,有關產業至今已取得7千個註冊名額,且單位售價比上階段產業高出約5萬令吉,連接房產每單位叫價目前達75萬至80萬令吉。

Bullish outlook on Mudajaya's plant job

Bullish outlook on Mudajaya's plant job

BY INTAN FARHANA ZAINUL

PETALING JAYA: While Mudajaya Group Bhd is likely to win the RM300mil rail contract to help build a railway link in Subang, analysts are more bullish on the group’s potential new power-plant awards in the coming months.

“Despite the potential rail contract win, we are much more optimistic about Mudajaya’s prospects in securing power-related civil works in Janamanjung,” said Hong Leong Investment Bank Research.

It sees the potential rail contract win as part of Mudajaya’s strategy to bid for sizeable infrastructure projects for better margins through economies of scale.

MISC braces for negative impact

MISC braces for negative impact

BY GURMEET KAUR AND SHARIDAN M. ALI
STARBIZ@THESTAR.COM.MY

PETALING JAYA: Analysts view the latest move by Petroliam Nasional Bhd (Petronas) to procure its liquefied natural gas (LNG) tankers directly rather than from MISC Bhd as disappointing and negatively impacting the sentiment surrounding the latter.

Yesterday, MISC shares fell 1.7% to RM5.20, with 4.74 million shares being done.

券商買進心頭好.鋼鐵業續面對挑戰 中鋼大馬前景獲改善

券商 :興業證券研究
目標價:1.72令吉

我們認為,雖然鋼鐵業將持續面對挑戰,但中鋼大馬(CSCSTEL,5094,主要板工業)前景會獲得改善。

 儘管次季鋼鐵估價受挫,但中鋼大馬上半年收益仍按年增長54%,報2510萬令吉。該公司本財年次季業績表現不佳,主要因低銷量以及賺幅收窄的影響。

 我們維持買入評級,目標價維持1.72令吉不變。

 雖然中鋼大馬次季走軟,淨收益錄得1020萬令吉,按季跌57%,按年下滑30%,但整體而言都符合我們的預測。次季表現不佳,主要鋼鐵銷量減,及鋼鐵價走軟。

MISC : The short end of the stick (CIMB)

MISC
Current RM5.29
Target RM4.35
The short end of the stick

 Yesterday, Petronas said that it will directly procure future LNG newbuildings, and will no longer charter additional LNG ships from MISC. This is a major negative surprise that threatens to reduce MISC’s LNG revenue by 20% over the next five years.

We keep our Underperform call in view of this unexpected twist in MISC’s relationship with its erstwhile supportive parent. Our target price remains pegged to a 30% discount to its SOP. De-rating catalysts include continued tough cyclical shipping conditions, and the almost certain decline in its LNG shipping earnings. MISC will announce its 2Q results on 16 August and we keep our forecasts unchanged till then.

Pavilion REIT : Rental reversions on track but sentiment hurt by rising interest rate environment (CS)

Pavilion REIT
Maintain NEUTRAL
Price (01 Aug 13 , RM) 1.45
TP (prev. TP RM) 1.49 (1.65)
Rental reversions on track but sentiment hurt by rising interest rate environment

● Pav REIT's 1H13 distributable income of RM110 mn was in line with expectations as Pavilion Mall benefitted from the higher rental income from "Fashion Avenue." Occupancy remained close to fully occupied at 99.5% and 94.0% for Pavilion mall and the office tower, respectively.

● Close to half of Pavilion mall's tenants up for renewal this year have been renewed, achieving rental reversions in the mid-teens. Majority of remaining tenant expiries should be renewed in 3Q13.

AirAsia X : Another “Red Giant” Flaps Its Wings (RHB)

AirAsia X
Target Price: MYR1.65
Price: MYR1.20
Another “Red Giant” Flaps Its Wings

We initiate on AirAsia X (AAX) at MYR1.65 per share, premised on an adjusted FY14F EV/EBITDAR multiple of 8.5x. We see the recent IPO as timely for investors to ride on the company’s next leg of growth. We foresee a robust earnings CAGR of 136% from FY12 to FY15, propelled by rising passenger traffic as a result of an expanding fleet, growing yields and new ancillary initiatives. We initiate coverage on AAX with a BUY.

COSCO Corp (Singapore): Another weak quarter (OCBC)

COSCO Corp (Singapore):
Fair value S$0.60
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.005
versus: Current price S$0.75

Another weak quarter
• 2Q net profit fell 56% YoY
• Susceptible to a credit squeeze
• Maintain SELL with unchanged S$0.60 FV

COSCO Corp (Singapore)’s revenue for 2Q13 declined by 9% YoY to S$890m, while net profit fell by 56% to S$12.0m. For 1H13, the group’s net profit fell by 61% to S$21.8m, forming 45% and 29% of ours and the street’s FY13 estimates respectively. As its operating weakness is more severe than what the street had expected, we think that the street would likely lower its FY13F forecasts. The group’s balance sheet is debt-laden with net debt-to-equity ratio at 1.4x and S$1.3b of loans due within 12 months. Should the credit situation in China deteriorates further, the group may become vulnerable. Maintain SELL with unchanged FV of S$0.60.

Fortune REIT: MOU for Kingswood Ginza property (OCBC)

Fortune REIT:
Fair value HK$6.95
add: 12m dividend forecast HK$0.365
versus: Current price HK$6.840

MOU for Kingswood Ginza property
• Portfolio valuation to grow by 26%
• Placement; units increase by 8.4%
• Higher discount rate, downgrade to HOLD

FRT has entered into a non-binding MOU in connection with the acquisition of 100% of the issued share capital of a target company by FRT and assignment of the shareholder loans to FRT. The target company owns Kingswood Ginza Property, which comprises the entire Kingswood Ginza Mall as well as other retail, kindergarten, parking lots and ancillary spaces.

Hi-P International : Luckily, no hard disk drives (CIMB)

Hi-P International
Current S$0.83
Target S$0.96
Luckily, no hard disk drives

 Hi-P continues to benefit from the recovery posted by its customers. Both reported and core net profit were better yoy and Hi-P is optimistic about its second-half outlook, backed by new product launches and the positive industry outlook.

Hi-P’s 1H core net profit made up 40% of our FY13 estimate and 36% of consensus. We consider this as in line as 2H is traditionally stronger. Catalysts are successful new product launches by customers and continued earnings momentum. Outperform maintained, with target price raised to S$0.96, still based on 14x P/E (3-year average). Our net profit forecasts are raised 7.3% on average as Hi-P regains confidence.

Golden Agri-Resources : Poor harvest due to lower prices (CIMB)

Golden Agri-Resources
Current S$0.53
Target S$0.56
Poor harvest due to lower prices

 Golden Agri’s 2Q13 core net profit fell by 49% yoy as weaker selling prices for palm products, lower FFB production and higher estate costs more than offset the better showing from its China agribusiness.

At 48% of our full-year forecast and 40% of consensus, we consider 1H13 core net profit to be below consensus but broadly in line with our expectation as we project a better 2H driven by higher production. Our net profit forecasts and target price of S$0.56 (14x CY14 P/E, the historical average) remain intact. We maintain our Neutral rating.

Singapore Post : Regional E-commerce player in the making (DBSV)

Singapore Post
BUY S$1.305
STI : 3,254.13
Price Target : 12-month S$ 1.50 (Prev S$ 1.56)
Regional E-commerce player in the making

• 1Q13 underlying profit of S$36.2m (-0.9% y-o-y, +13.8% q-o-q) was slightly below estimate due to forex losses; declared S$1.25 Scts interim DPS, in line
• Transforming into a major E-commerce player in Asia, where it can ride on last mile delivery network of postal peers in various countries
• Maintain BUY with a revised TP of S$1.50; has S$146m net cash for more acquisitions

Cordlife: Rumoured relaxation of China’s one child policy (MKE)

Cordlife Group Limited
Buy (Unchanged)
Share price: SGD1.055
Target price: SGD1.29 (unchanged)
Rumoured relaxation of China’s one child policy

 Possible relaxation of one child policy. According to a Chinese press report, there is a strong rumor on the mainland that China may relax its one child policy by the end of 2013 and fully implement the policy in 2015 via several stages. China’s baby stocks have reacted positively on the news according to our Hong Kong’s consumer analyst, Jacqueline Ko.

曾淵滄專欄 06.08.13:從匯控業績看世界

恒指昨日全日變化不大,投資者都在等待匯控(005)公佈半年業績,匯控股價在業績前微升,但仍破不了90元大關。匯控在港股收市後公佈業績,純利100億美元,增長23%,應該說是不錯,但業績一公佈,倫敦匯控股價卻馬上下跌,是趁好消息出貨?是業績仍不符合大行的預期?

投資者非常重視匯控的業績,不單是因為他們持有匯控這隻股,另一個更重要的原因是,匯控業務遍及全球,匯控公佈業績時會分別列出不同地區的業績,只要比較一下這些資料,就可以大概了解世界各地的經濟狀況。昨日匯控公佈的業績中,很清楚地看到歐洲的業績已經是由虧轉盈,歐洲最糟糕的日子應該過去了,歐債危機也暫時結束了,歐洲走出谷底,對全世界都有利。

Rickmers Maritime 2Q13 earnings lower due to decline in operating profit (S&P)

Rickmers Maritime
Price: SGD0.29 Date: July 31, 2013

Results Review
2Q13 earnings lower due to decline in operating profit. Rickmers Maritime (RMT) reported 2Q13 revenue of USD35.0 mln (-2.7% YoY) and net profit of USD7.7 mln (-13.6% YoY). Profit was slightly lower than our expectations due to one-off debt processing fee.

Declining operating profit growth. Revenue was USD1.0 mln lower YoY mainly due to 37.9 days of scheduled off-hire for three vessels’ dry docking. Vessel operating expenses increased by 6.5% YoY due to contractual increase in fixed operating expense, vessel management fees and related expenses.

Pacific Basin Shipping : 1H13 results (CS)

Pacific Basin Shipping Ltd
Maintain OUTPERFORM
Price (01 Aug 13, HK$) 4.27
TP (prev. TP HK$) 5.00 (5.00)
1H13 results

● Pacific Basin (PB) reported pre-ex NPAT of US$9.4 mn (when currency-adjusted) in 1H13, matching our US$9.5 mn estimate, but ahead of last year’s US$6 mn loss and consensus expectation of a US$16 mn loss. Reported NPAT of US$0.3 mn compared with last year’s loss of US$196 mn.

● While towage contributions were lower on account of FX translation and new project start-up costs, dry bulk earnings (predominantly handymax) exceeded expectations despite slightly lower freight rates than anticipated as charter-in costs continued to decline.

Monday, August 5, 2013

Malaysia Building Society - Strong base for new directions

Malaysia Building Society -
Price Target:3.60
Last Price:3.07
Strong base for new directions

- We maintain BUY rating on Malaysia Building Society Bhd (MBSB), with a lower fair value of RM3.60/share (from RM3.70) (cum basis) or RM2.18 (from RM2.23) on ex-rights price basis. Our earnings forecasts and fair value already reflect a possible rights issue, and is fully diluted for the previous warrants issue in FY11. This is based on a fully-diluted ROE (for previous warrants and potential imminent rights issue) of 19.7% (from 20.0%), leading to fair P/BV of 1.94x (from 1.99x).

Time to reconsider S-REITs?

Time to reconsider S-REITs?
Insider Asia
Written by InsiderAsia    
Monday, 05 August 2013 10:30

Singapore real estate investment trusts (S-REITs) have been among the worst hit in the recent global market selldown. At the worst, prices were down by some 20%  on average since the first hint of tapering by the US Federal Reserve in mid-May.

This is not surprising given that most investors in REITs are yield seekers. Thus, with yields on risk-free government securities rising sharply over the past two months, yields from REITs must correspondingly spike higher — and unit prices lower — to maintain the spread for risks associated with these trusts. Indeed, yields on benchmark US Treasury notes, Singapore government securities (SGS) and average yields on S-REITs have moved pretty much in tandem.

一股作气:海鸥或派更高息

一股作气:海鸥或派更高息
Created 08/05/2013 - 13:57

经历政府紧收直销业管制和整顿直销队伍冲击的海鸥(HAI0,7668,主板贸服股),其盈利前景的增长动力,备受看好且预计将高速增长。

净现金充裕的海鸥集团披露,在能力允许的情况之下,不排除将派发更高股息,让周息率更具吸引力。

展望未来,该集团计划采取低成本高利润的销售方案,以及产品将走精致路线并减少运输费,以提高盈利赚幅,让业绩表现推向高峰。

多年前受到政府更严格的新会员录用条例以及整顿直销队伍的双重打击以后,海鸥的业绩表现已重回增长的轨道上。

麥嘉華筆記:美股升浪未玩完

大多數美國人擁有五張或以上的信用卡,全國加起來的數目超過10億張。而自2010年4月以來,人們為了維持他們的消費水平,儲蓄率卻由5.3%降至目前的只有約2.5%。

許多美國人「願意」窮一生的精力去賺錢,目的就是要償還先使未來錢所欠下的債務。其實有很多東西我們都沒有能力負擔,卻相信自己值得擁有,這種追求物質生活的心態,種下了負債纍纍的禍根,並衍生出其他社會和家庭問題……

西方愛舉債 經濟難大翻身
只要美國和其他西方國家的政策繼續「鼓勵」人們舉債度日,先使未來錢,西方國家經濟將難望大翻身,新興經濟體則會從後追趕。從投資的角度而論,這一點不容忽視。

PavREIT enhancing tenant mix

PAVILION REIT
By Affin Research
Add (maintain)
Price target: RM1.61

FOR the first half of the financial year 2013 (1H13), the Pavilion REIT (PavREIT) reported a realised net profit (NP) of RM106.2mil (11.2% year-on-year (y-o-y)) on the back of a RM185.9mil of gross revenue (10.5% y-o-y).

Pavilion Mall, which contributed 96.7% to PavREIT’s topline, has seen a pick-up in occupancy rate from 94.6% to 99.5% in June 2013 since the past year following the completion of configuration works at Fashion Avenue.

Iskandar developers see continued strong momentum

Iskandar developers see continued strong momentum
BY ZAZALI MUSA
ZAZA@THESTAR.COM.MY

JOHOR BARU: Property developers in Iskandar Malaysia are reaping big rewards as the property outlook in the economic growth region remains vibrant.

Johor Real Estate and Housing Developers Association (Rehda) branch deputy chairman Wong Kuen Kong said many Johor Rehda members had reported good response for most new launches.

He said the “feel-good” factor was a continuation from last year, with many optimistic that the momentum would be maintained in the second-half of this year and 2014.

尚福林:內銀高盈利告終 受累息差收窄 籲開發新產品

尚福林:內銀高盈利告終 受累息差收窄 籲開發新產品

【本報訊】人行上月突然宣布撤銷人民幣貸款利率下限,銀行間利率市場化向前跨進一大步。銀監會主席尚福林承認,在貸款增長放緩、息差收窄的情況下,內銀盈利將受影響,「高盈利時代或告終」。對於地方債、影子銀行等風險,他認為當局已知悉有關問題,並進行根治。
記者:鄭柏齡

尚福林日前接受了中央官方電台《中央廣播網》訪問,就內銀盈利、地方債、影子銀行風險,以及中國經濟增長放緩等等問題解話。

Singapore Post: Expecting another steady quarter (OCBC)

Singapore Post:
Fair value S$1.32
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.06
versus: Current price S$1.32

Expecting another steady quarter
• Expecting steady results
• More acquisitions along the way
• Improved positioning

Singapore Post (SingPost) will be announcing its 1QFY14 results after market close on 2 Aug 2013. We expect net profit to be around S$35m, which would represent about 24% of our full year estimate. Expenses are likely to remain elevated due to inflationary cost increases, growth in volume-related expenses and other administrative costs and continued investments.

Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust: 2Q13 results as expected (OCBC)

Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust:
Fair value S$0.49
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.036
versus: Current price S$0.500

2Q13 results as expected
• 0.93 S cent DPU
• Hoping for at least one acquisition in 2013
• Raise discount rate; Trim FV to S$0.49

LMIRT posted 2Q13 gross rental income of S$40.1m, up 30.2% YoY. The increase was mainly due to the acquisition of the six new malls in 4Q12, and positive rental reversions of 15.5% for the existing malls.

One Important Risk You Might Have Overlooked with REITs

One Important Risk You Might Have Overlooked with REITs
By Ser Jing Chong - August 1, 2013

Last week’s initial public offerings of SPH REIT (SGX: SK6U) and OUE Hospitality Trust (SGX: SK7) were very well received.

SPH REIT, which currently comprises of two retail malls, was spun off from newspaper publisher Singapore Press Holdings (SGX: T39) and saw 122m units changing hands on its first day of trading. The amount of units being bought and sold represented almost 5% of the REIT’s total units.

OUE H-Trust, which owns a luxury hotel and upscale shopping mall, was split from real estate group Overseas Union Enterprises (SGX: LJ3) and had 80.5m units (roughly 6% of the REIT’s overall ownership) being traded on its debut.

Yoma Strategic Holdings: Key catalyst ahead - the Landmark Project (OCBC)

Yoma Strategic Holdings:
Fair value S$0.87
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.01
versus: Current price S$0.87

Key catalyst ahead - the Landmark Project
• Higher staff costs and slow construction
• Selling LDRs in Star City Zone B
• Awaiting Landmark acquisition

Yoma reported 1QFY14 PATMI of S$0.4m, which decreased 80.6% YoY mostly due to higher staff costs as the group continues to build up a strong management team in anticipation of future activity. We judge 1QFY14 PATMI to be below view – forming only 3.7% of our full year forecast – due to a slower than anticipated pace of recognition at Star City and higher staff costs.

Q&M Dental : Into the North East Part of China (SIAS)

Q&M Dental
Increase Exposure
• Intrinsic Value S$0.435
• Prev Closing Price S$0.310
Into the North East Part of China

Q&M Dental Group (Singapore) Ltd (Q&M) recently announced a MOU to acquire 60% stake in Aoxin Stomatology Group (Aoxin, based in Shenyang), for RMB108m. A management company will be incorporated to manage all the six hospitals and clinics in the entity and the seller agrees to provide a profit guarantee of RMB133m over the next 12 years. The seller will also pledge his remaining 40% stake in the management company for the performance of the profit guarantee.

Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust : Stable Results, Continue to Enhance its Assets (SIAS)

Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust
Increase Exposure
Stable Results, Continue to Enhance its Assets
Intrinsic Value S$0.650
Prev Closing S$0.500

 Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust’s (LMIR) 2Q results were within expectations (+/-1%) and virtually a replicate of its 1Q numbers. 1H FY13 NPI and DPU now form 49.6% and 50.1% of our FY13F.

Approximately 4.3% of the leasable space was renewed this quarter with a positive rental reversion of 15.5%. Pluit Village saw a rise in occupancy rate due to the entry of Carrefour while Ekalokasari Plaza suffered a decline due to AEI development. The overall mall occupancy rate rose 1.6% QoQ to 94.4%. LMIR will continue to enhance its assets performance and may look to acquire one or two assets towards the end of the year. The company is also exploring its options on refinancing its S$147.5m term loan.

Sing Holdings : No surprises (AM)

Sing Holdings
LAST CLOSE: S$0.48
FAIR VALUE: S$0.56
No surprises

• 1H results in line. For 1HFY2013, Sing Holdings registered S$26.0mil of PATMI, largely in‐line with our estimates of S$24.1mil. The earnings relate mainly to the progressive recognition of proceeds from the sale of The Laurels. The cumulative percentage recognised till 1HFY13 is 96%. Based on contracted sales of 98%, we expect Sing Holdings to recognise the remaining estimated S$27.6mil worth of revenues and S$4.2mil PATMI relating to this project in 2HFY13.

• Lumpy earnings recognition from property development in 2HFY13. As the bulk of recognition has been done for The Laurels project, there would be minimal earnings recognition from property development in 2HFY13. We expect 3Q to register a very slight profit on the remaining
recognition of The Laurels project, and 4Q to be lossmaking.

Overseas Union Enterprise : Special dividend of 20 Scts (CIMB)

Overseas Union Enterprise
Current S$2.85
Target S$3.32
Special dividend of 20 Scts

 2Q13 results were weak mainly due to higher expenses. However, the highlight was the much-anticipated special dividend announced in view of the listing of OUE H-REIT. The balance sheet is due to strengthen and OUE can focus now on asset enhancements and possibly more acquisitions.

2Q13 core earnings was below expectations at 17% of our full-year estimate (1H13 at 36%) and 15% of consensus. We cut our FY13-15 core EPS by 20-47% but lift our target price (20% RNAV discount) to S$3.32 on the loss of income and accretion to RNAV from the REIT listing. Maintain Outperform, with catalysts from stronger office leasing and potential acquisitions.

Cosco Corporation : The great famine (CIMB)

Cosco Corporation  
The great famine
S$0.75 –
Tgt. S$0.46

▊ We were spot on with 2Q13 net profit of S$12m, although this was helped by S$2.4m tax income, without which, it would have been an ugly set of results. We expect a consensus downgrade of earnings and target prices as Cosco continues to disappoint. 2Q13 net profit met our expectation with 1H13 accounting for 46% of our FY13 forecast but grossly below consensus at only 29%. Maintain Underperform with a target price still based on 22x CY14 P/E (5-year mean). De-rating catalysts are 55% yoy earnings deterioration in FY13. We doubt that the market will be excited by the contract announcements of a US$170m rig jack-up order and Rmb590m offshore supply vessels.

曾淵滄專欄05.08.13:和黃賣仔紅底在望

和黃(013)公佈業績後,股價創兩年新高,多家大行馬上調升和黃的目標價,多數認為和黃股價可重上百元大關,當然,這是假設和黃會以高價出售百佳,我也相信百佳必賣個好價錢。

電能正路要賣港燈
多家歐美超市,多年來一直想打進香港這個市場而打不進,因此,收購肯定是最佳的佔領市場方法,李嘉誠選擇高調賣百佳,目的就是製造爭購的氣氛,以賣個好價。

Hi-P did well in 2Q’13 (Limtan)

HI-P
S$0.83-HIP SP
Hi-P did well in 2Q’13 and performed in line with expectations with sales up 13% to $285mln on the back of strong demand from Blackberry and Apple while gross profit surged 88% to $28.4mln due to a better product mix and lower contributions from lower margined assembly work. Economies of scale also helped.

Positive operating leverage and the strong US$ helped bottom-line turnaround to $11mln, up from a loss of $2mln a year ago and helped 1H13 bottom-line turnaround to a profit of $18mln from loss of $583,000 last year.

Pacific Basin Shipping 1H13: Turns Around In A Sluggish Freight Market (UOBKH)

Pacific Basin Shipping
Share Price HK$4.27
Target Price HK$4.48
1H13: Turns Around In A Sluggish Freight Market

1H13: Turns Around In A Sluggish Freight Market
PBS reported a net profit of US$0.3m in 1H13, vs a net loss in 1H12. It has outpaced the spot freight market despite the dry bulk market conditions remaining sluggish. We are still cautious on the dry bulk sector, but considering the defensiveness of PBS for being Handy market-focused, maintain HOLD. Target price: HK$4.48. Entry price: HK$3.80.

走進國企:中海油LNG提速 明年接卸3000萬噸

走進國企:中海油LNG提速 明年接卸3000萬噸
http://paper.wenweipo.com   [2013-08-05]

 香港文匯報訊(記者 羅洪嘯 莆田報道)作為中國的海洋石油公司,中國海油正在把液化天然氣(LNG)業務打造成集團第二大能源業務。在進口LNG突破5,000萬噸後,中國海油相關負責人介紹,中國海油在建和規劃建設LNG項目包括廣東珠海金灣、海南洋浦、深圳迭福、粵東惠來、江蘇濱海、天津、遼寧營口等,項目同時配套天然氣電廠及城市管網建設等,自此中國海油基本完成了在中國沿海LNG全產業鏈佈局,到明年LNG接卸能力將達到3,000萬噸。

地方企業合作推廣LNG
 在LNG市場拓展方面,中國海油採取了和地方政府戰略合作的模式,全面佈局LNG產業鏈。在當前中國空氣污染日益嚴峻的局面下,地方政府也願意引進LNG這一清潔能源。作為較早引進LNG的省份,福建省已經嘗到使用LNG的甜頭,本報記者近日隨中國海油探訪LNG如何在福建落地生根。

大行報告:太航長遠跑贏同業

大行推介速遞

摩根士丹利發表報告指,雖然面對行業運力過剩而拖低運費,太平洋航運(02343)上半年仍能輕微錄得盈利,較該行早前預期將錄得虧損為佳,預計短期內對股價有支持。該行又指,公司目前估值約一四年預測市帳率0.8倍,屬於合理,而股份今年至今已經跑贏同業12至20個百分點,故維持其「與大市同步」評級。

Sunday, August 4, 2013

降评级打乱7月涨势 马股8月料陷横摆

降评级打乱7月涨势 马股8月料陷横摆

隨著惠誉国际评级在上周二(30日)下调大马展望评级,马股上周三应声下跌。

富时大马综合指数单单当天一共下挫22.46点或1.251%,至1772.62点,写下7周以来的最大跌幅。

同时,令吉兑美元匯率一度下挫至3.2536令吉兑1美元,也是3年来的新低水。

回顾马股在7月份的走势,普遍而言,综指走势趋向正面,经过505大选后于5月间上探至1826.22点的新高水平,富时大马综合指数在7月24日写下1810点的闭市新高。

应付严峻营运环境 马建屋新策略获好评

应付严峻营运环境 马建屋新策略获好评
Created 08/04/2013 - 11:14
(吉隆坡3日讯)尽管受到国家银行打债措施影响,马建屋(MBSB,1171,主板金融股)拟定数项商业策略应付这充满挑战的营运环境,成功获得投行好评。

马建屋2013财年首6个月净利按年暴涨91.43%,报3亿3129万9000令吉,这普遍高于市场预测。

肯纳格投行分析员指出,这是充满惊喜的季度,首半年净利分别占投行及市场全年预测的63%及57%比重。

“我们仍对马建屋的前景抱着谨慎乐观态度,但是国行近期收紧借贷条例及竞争激烈,将会影响贷款成长及净利息赚幅。”

Redtone - 10-fold jump in earnings!

Redtone -
Price Target:0.81
Last Price:0.785
10-fold jump in earnings!

Period     4Q13/FY13

Actual vs.  Expectations Redtone’s FY13 NP of RM25.2m (+1073% YoY) came in within our expectations. Its full-year revenue of RM141m, however, was 15% lower than our estimate due mainly to the deferment in revenue recognition  of some of its low-margin projects.

Dividends    A maiden interim dividend of 1.5 sen was declared after a long dry spell (since FY06) with the entitlement  and payments dates to be determined at a later date. The dividend translates into a payout ratio of 28.5%, in-line with its dividend policy of minimum 25% payout ratio

Pacific Basin CEO on Business Outlook



Cosco Corp:The Going Gets Tougher (MKE)

Cosco Corp
Sell (unchanged)
Share price: SGD0.745
Target price: SGD0.65 (unchanged)
The Going Gets Tougher

 Below expectations, maintain Sell. Cosco reported 2Q13 revenue of 890.3m (-9% YoY, +21% QoQ), with PATMI of SGD12.0m (-56% YoY, +24% QoQ). Results were weaker than our below-consensus forecasts. We highlighted downside risks to our estimates in our results preview. 1H13 net profit makes up only 35% of our previous FY13F forecast. The weak set of results was attributed to a decline in shipbuilding and ship repair activities which more than offset the revenue growth from the marine engineering segment. Cosco continues to paint a weak outlook on near term prospects as Chinese shipbuilding sector remains in doldrums. Maintain Sell, with TP of SGD0.65, pegged to 1.1x P/B.

Pavilion REIT: A Seasonally Weak Quarter (MKE)

Pavilion REIT
Hold (unchanged)
Share price: MYR1.45
Target price: MYR1.63 (unchanged)
A Seasonally Weak Quarter

 Maintain HOLD. PavREIT’s 1H13 net profit of MYR106m (+11% YoY) was within our and consensus expectations. 1H13 DPU of 3.65sen was also in line (+9% YoY). We maintain our FY13-15 earnings forecasts and DCF-based TP of MYR1.63. PavREIT currently trades at an FY14 net yield of 4.8% vs the large-cap REIT average of 5.1% following the recent selldown on M-REITs due to concerns over rising bond yields.

Malaysia Building Society - Exceeded Expectations, Again

Malaysia Building Society -
Price Target:3.40
Last Price:3.05
Exceeded Expectations, Again

Period     2Q13/6M13

Actual vs. Expectations   The 6M13 net profit of RM325.8m was way above expectations, accounting for 63% and 57% of our forecast and consensus estimates, respectively.

Dividends    No dividend was declared. As a result, we have revised down our FY13 NDPS estimate from 13.1 sen to 10.0 sen. FY14 NDPS was also revised lower from 15.7 sen to 12.0 sen. These NDPS estimates are based on a 30% payout ratio.

Hutchison Ports Holdings Trust: Lower Throughput Hits 1HFY13 Numbers (OSK)

Hutchison Ports Holdings Trust: Lower Throughput Hits 1HFY13 Numbers
(NEUTRAL, USD0.74, TP: USD0.79)

HPHT’s 1HFY13 earnings missed forecasts due to weaker volume and higher costs resulting from a strike by its union. Even incorporating 2H’s peak season, trade volume in Hong Kong may at best come in flat y-o-y while that in Yantian will rise 3%-4% this year. We cut our earnings estimates on the lower volume, which trims our FV to USD0.79. Maintain NEUTRAL, as the stock’s yield is an attractive 6.4%.

Hit by industrial strike. As HPHT’s 1HFY13 earnings fell short of forecasts, we are slashing our FY13 estimate by 12%. Earnings fell 15.4% y-o-y (2QFY13: -25.2% y-o-y, -2.6% q-o-q), making up only 39.5% of our initial full-year forecast.

Globetronics : Special dividend in the offing (MIDF)

Globetronics Technology Bhd
Special dividend in the offing
Price (31 July 2013) RM2.60
Target Price RM2.96

• Registered double digit earnings growth in 1H13 to RM24.3, inline with our expectation.
• Further upside in earnings seen. We are revising FY13 and FY14 earnings higher by 13.4% and 12.8% respectively.
• Higher cash pile portends to another round of special dividend. Maintain BUY recommendation with a higher TP of RM2.96

RM to weaken to 3.27 against US dollar



(施永青)Shih Wing-Ching -Hong Kong's Property Reality



How to Look for Values in Companies



Catcha Group: Of Mergers, Listings, Privatisations & Undervaluation



New Theme Park with 20th Century Fox at Genting Malaysia



曹仁超:有财富才有自由

我老曹认为,2008年起香港真的闷得很!

  我不是说香港没有娱乐,香港有着各种各样的娱乐活动但偏偏感觉如此郁闷,社会仿佛弥漫着一层灰沉的浓雾。因为香港各方面都问题多多,面对GDP陷入低增长期,年轻人出路大减,大部分人都有一种无力感。

  因为香港经济起飞的黄金30年在1997年结束,甚至10年经济高原期也在2007年完结,行业发展已趋成熟,难以突围,加上香港经济是海岛型结构,极受外围环境影响,无论哪个行业,都举步维艰。升斗小民无力改善生活环境,难道除了坐以待毙、出言发泄之外就别无他法?

利率改革步入深水区



曾渊沧《股市资讯》2012年投资研讨峰会 -



胡立阳《股市资讯》2012年投资研讨峰会 -



Warren E. Buffett(沃伦•巴菲特)
Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful
别人贪婪时我恐惧, 别人恐惧时我贪婪
投资只需学好两门课: 一,是如何给企业估值,二,是如何看待股市波动
吉姆·罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)
“错过时机”胜于“搞错对象”:不会全军覆没!”
做自己熟悉的事,等到发现大好机会才投钱下去

乔治·索罗斯(George Soros)

“犯错误并没有什么好羞耻的,只有知错不改才是耻辱。”

如果操作过量,即使对市场判断正确,仍会一败涂地。

李驰(中国巴菲特)
高估期间, 卖对, 不卖也对, 买是错的。
低估期间, 买对, 不买也是对, 卖是错的。

Tan Teng Boo


There’s no such thing as defensive stocks.Every stock can be defensive depending on what price you pay for it and what value you get,
冷眼(冯时能)投资概念
“买股票就是买公司的股份,买股份就是与陌生人合股做生意”。
合股做生意,则公司股份的业绩高于一切,而股票的价值决定于盈利。
价值是本,价格是末,故公司比股市重要百倍。
曹仁超-香港股神/港股明灯
1.有智慧,不如趁势
2.止损不止盈
成功者所以成功,是因为不怕失败!失败者所以失败,是失败后不再尝试!
曾淵滄-散户明灯
每逢灾难就是机会,而是在灾难发生时贱价买股票,然后放在一边,耐性地等灾难结束
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