Saturday, July 27, 2013

经济慧眼:市场投资周期决定收益

经济慧眼:市场投资周期决定收益
Created 07/26/2013 - 12:16
国际黄金价格会持续下跌吗?在一篇访谈中,美国著名的风险投资家罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)解说,黄金价格已经持续上涨了12年,这对任何一种资产来说都是极其罕见的,市场若不出现一次回调的话将会非常反常。

投资者可以参考罗杰斯的预测—黄金价格将相对于其高峰值下跌50%,即跌到每安士约900美元的价格水平。

若真预言命中,笔者认为届时黄金价格将会有另一轮的抄底上涨。罗杰斯是国际大宗商品交易家,他曾在两年前成功地预测到了当时涨至峰值的黄金价格将跌至每安士1200美元。

个人电脑需求下滑 友尼森短期业绩恐受挫

个人电脑需求下滑 友尼森短期业绩恐受挫
Created 07/27/2013 - 13:34
(吉隆坡26日讯)尽管分析员看好友尼森(UNISEM,5005,主板科技股)2.0转型计划的展望,但仍担忧短期内表现或因个人电脑需求下滑而进一步走弱。

为了扭转业绩走弱局面,友尼森采取2.0转型计划,专注于高赚幅的产品和服务业务。

肯纳格分析员虽看好该转型计划,但却担忧短期内业绩或再度受挫。

“由于个人电脑需求走弱,而友尼森的18%营业额来自个人电脑,再加上最低薪金制的执行,恐怕公司短期业绩表现将持续黯淡。”

未入账销售5.3 亿 华阳下半年盈利看涨

未入账销售5.3 亿 华阳下半年盈利看涨
Created 07/27/2013 - 13:35
(吉隆坡26日讯)尽管华阳(HUAYANG,5062,主板产业股)2014财年首季业绩下跌,但仍符合市场预测,分析员预计该集团可在下半年加快增长步伐,取得更佳盈利表现。

华阳2014财年首季净利按年下跌25%至1230万令吉,但投行认为表现仍符合预测,达证券分析员表示,该公司未入账销售为5亿3000万令吉,他相信盈利表现料能在下半年迎头赶上。

肯纳格投行则表示,首季通常为疲弱季节,因新产品通常会在末季入账。由于目前仍在初步兴建阶段,该公司仍未有重大意义性的收入入账。

Commodity Shipments Hit by STX Pan Ocean Receivership

July 04, 2013
Commodity Shipments Hit by STX Pan Ocean Receivership
BY MAREX

* Half of South Korean firm's bulk ships not operating-source

* Wheat shipment delays could threaten flour production

* POSCO looking at other shippers or land routes for steel

(Reuters) - Around 200 bulk carriers operated by South Korea's STX Pan Ocean Co Ltd are out of action after the firm went into receivership last month, a company source said, affecting shipments of commodities such as wheat and exports of steel.

新加坡股市资讯 2013年心水股:第二季度回顾


2013年心水股:第二季度回顾

文:  ,  (译:麦美莹) 
  • 2013年07月26日
  •  展望
    无可否认,4月至6月期间,市场可说是无从捉摸。一时间,股市大涨;一时间,大势已去。但从另一个角度来看,市场的调整,有没有为我们打开了另一扇门呢?当我们来回顾投资专家及《股市资讯》团队所挑选的心水股在第二季的表现时,我们也将会为大家选出一些在未来三个月表现向好的新宠儿。
    首先,让我们来看看全球在今年第二季发生了哪些大事。就在4月初,新上任的日本央行行长黑天东彦宣布政府将推出14亿美元的刺激计划。欧元区的货币政策也维持宽松,因为欧洲央行把借贷成本减至历来最低的0.5%。

    可是,形势忽然急转。联邦储备局主席伯南克暗示联储局可能会开始缩减购债计划的规模令股市失控。雪上加霜的是,中国经济增长放缓及紧缩银根令人担忧。

    曾淵滄-股市资讯专栏 - 26.07.2013

    曾渊沧博士专栏
    文: 曾渊沧博士 2013年07月26日 曾渊沧博士专栏
    美国联储局公布上一回议息会议内容,对股市而言,是正面的利好讯息,因为联储局委员虽然同意在适当时间退市,但何时退市仍未有共识。而没有共识当然是好事,这表示退市时间会往后推。

    过去一个月,新加坡与香港股市表现不错,很大程度是因为美国股市不断的创新高。前阵子新加坡与香港股市受到中国A股下跌的影响而下跌,上海综合指数长时间在2,000点的低位徘徊。新加坡与香港股市则慢慢摆脱中国A股的下跌压力,如果美国股市能继续创新高,新加坡与香港股市应该有力慢慢地回升,再创今年新高。目前整体股价已比2008年金融海啸期高了一倍,因此也不容易发掘像海啸期那样的非常超值股。但是,目前整体而言,股价是低过长期本益比(PE)和股价与账面值比(PB)的,不是非常超值,但也相当超值。

    颜子伟: 伯南克立场软化会否令实际基本面受扭曲?

    伯南克立场软化会否令实际基本面受扭曲?
    文: 颜子伟 (译:麦美莹) 2013年07月26日 展望
    环球股市在过去两个星期的表现不俗,道琼斯工商指数甚至创下历来新高,而世界各地其他的股市,包括亚洲市场,都努力在追上美国股市的表现。

    由于部分企业公布比预期强劲的业绩;经济数据乐观,尤其是房屋领域;而更重要的是联储局主席伯南克就第三轮量化宽松政策(QE III)表示,只要美国经济还需要政府的支持,QE III将会继续执行,因此,道指在7月23日升至15,604点日内高位,收盘时稍微回落至15,564点,但依然创下了新高。

    MAS seen mitigating losses in Q2

    MALAYSIAN AIRLINE SYSTEM BHD
    By RHB Research
    Buy (maintained)
    Fair value: RM0.43

    MALAYSIA Airline System’s (MAS) passenger load factor hit a new high of 84.3% in June.

    Its overall load factor for the second quarter of financial year 2013 improved by 3.9% quarter-on-quarter (qoq) and 4.9% year-on-year (yoy).

    This seems to indicate that MAS may be able to mitigate its losses in the quarter amid yield pressure.

    MAS’ operating stats for the quarter continued to show positive growth.

    Bargains emerge in Hong Kong

    Bargains emerge in Hong Kong
    Personal Finance
    Written by Esther Lee of The Edge Malaysia    
    Monday, 22 July 2013 00:00

    IT is not surprising that Hong Kong's equity market has undergone a tumultuous first half of the year considering its high foreign investing interest and proximity to mainland China.

    The Hang Seng Index has been dubbed one of the worst-performing stock indices in Asia-Pacific, sliding 5.38% year-to-date. This is a far cry from its performance in 2012, gaining 20.02% during the year.

    Pantech - Off To a Good Start

    Pantech -
    Price Target:1.43
    Last Price:1.08
    Off To a Good Start

    PGHB’s MYR13.8m 1QFY14  net  earnings  (+10.4%  y-o-y,  +9.0%  q-o-q) were largely in line with our and streets’ estimates. The trading division was  affected  by  slower project  execution  but  manufacturing  continues to  show  commendable  earnings.  A  1.2  sen  interim  dividend  was declared. We maintain our positive view on the outlook of the Company, retaining out BUY recommendation with FV MYR1.43 unchanged.

    Mapletree Commercial Trust: Strong 1Q performance (DBSV)

    Mapletree Commercial Trust,
     Buy S$1.24,
    Strong 1Q performance
    Price Target : 12-Month S$ 1.50 (Prev S$ 1.53)

    •Strong set of results, making up 27% of our full year forecast
    •Robust organic growth from Vivocity and PSA Building
    •Maintain Buy, TP S$1.50

    Highlights
    Good 1Q showing. MCT continued to deliver a sterling set of results,  with topline growing 26% y-o-y to S$64.4m while NPI improved by a better 31% to S$47.1m in 1QFY14. Distributable income was 26% higher y-o-y at S$36.3m, translating to 1.753Scts DPU and making up 27% of our FY14 forecast. Earnings expansion continued to be driven by contributions from Mapletree Anson as well as higher rents and portfolio occupancy of 98.3%. Excluding Mapletree Anson, revenue and NPI rose by a commendable 11% and 14% y-o-y, respectively.

    CapitaMalls Asia : Robust operations (DBSV)

    CapitaMalls Asia Limited,
    Buy S$1.94,
    Robust operations
    Price Target : S$ 2.34 (Prev S$ 2.38)

    •Organic expansion and revaluation gains lift earnings
    •New mall completions and healthy rental growth in China support NAV and cashflow
    •Maintain BUY, TP S$2.34

    Highlights
    In line set of results. CMA’s results were within expectations, with 2Q13 PATMI growing 6% y-o-y to S$246m while revenue was up 25% to S$93.4m. The results were lifted by higher rental income from new malls, a maiden share of recognition of S$12m profit from Bedok Residences and S$192m of revaluation and portfolio gains. 1H13 operating PATMI made up 45% of our full year forecast. The group has proposed an interim DPS of 1.75Scts, translating to a yield of 1.8%.

    Sheng Siong :Margins, new stores support earnings (DBSV)

    Sheng Siong Group,
    Buy S$0.695,
    Margins, new stores support earnings
    Price Target : 12-Month S$ 0.80 (Prev S$ 0.78)

    •2Q13 earnings slightly below;  margin expansion and contribution by new stores offset by store renovations and competition
    •Margins to expand further, earnings should improve sequentially from seasonally weak 2Q
    •Dividend yield of c.4% supports share price, interim DPS of 1.2 Scents declared
    •Maintain BUY, TP S$0.80

    Highlights
    Earnings slightly below, new stores and higher margins contributed to growth. 2Q13 net profit came in at S$8.5m (+21% y-o-y), while revenue was S$160m, (+9%), driven by contribution from 8 new stores and margin expansion.

    Tiger Airways 1QFY14: Singapore Operations Disappoint (UOBKH)

    Tiger Airways
    Share Price S$0.62
    Target Price S$0.55
    1QFY14: Singapore Operations Disappoint

    Singapore operations were expected to be the silver lining, which could potentially boost earnings. However, the 5.0% decline in yields for Tigerair Singapore burst that bubble. We cut our FY14 net profit estimate by 29% and reduce our target price by 10% to S$0.55. Maintain SELL.

    投資高手 不會賺盡最後一塊錢

    投資高手 不會賺盡最後一塊錢
    2013年7月27日
    【明報專訊】有人說,投資最難掌握的是出市和入市的時間,因為就算能掌握影響市場大方向的因素,也很難評估有關因素會何時才完全發酵,以至不是太早,便是太遲上車和落車。若行動太早,不是要捱價,便是太早收割,錯過煙花最燦爛的一刻,但反應太慢,卻又可能輕舟已過,錯過了低價入市,又或要逃生時,火已燒到埋身。

    比如在2002年底時,有「樓神分析員」之稱的林奮強曾到筆者公司演講,說樓價已快見底,但到2003年卻出現SARS的終極一跌,樓價才展開長逾10年的大升浪,也就是說2002年聽林奮強建議入市買樓,仍要捱一段價。然而,在SARS後樓價回升時,不少人卻懷疑只是虛火,到了驚覺樓市已轉勢後,卻又已錯過最佳的入市時機,徒呼奈何。

    Vasu Menon: Why investors should not expect any Chinese stimulus



    羅傑斯預言內房硬着陸

    中國國內生產總值(GDP)連續兩季增速回落,第二季跌至7.5%,國家統計局亦坦言內地潛在生產力下降。「商品大王」羅傑斯接受本報專訪時表示,雖然繼續唱好內地經濟前景,但他明言中國應繼續收緊流動性,而且因為中央加大調控樓市,擔心中國房地產市場會「硬着陸」。

    內地早前爆發「錢荒」惹起市場恐慌,對於中國收緊流動性是否足以解決影子銀行問題,羅傑斯表示:「現在也許還不可以。如果中國持續收緊(銀根),不論對中國或是所有人都有好處。

    Friday, July 26, 2013

    为解决产能过剩的问题,银行提高中国船厂的贷款门槛

    为解决产能过剩的问题,银行提高中国船厂的贷款门槛
    文: 汤森路透 (译:伍丽芳) 2013年07月25日 汤森路透
    由于中国政府试图解决一些行业产能过剩的问题,各大银行已纷纷收紧对中国船厂实施的贷款条例。这使供过于求的造船业面对更大的压力。

    融资条例收紧将会打击小型船厂,但却可能增强扬子江船厂控股(Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (Holdings))和韩国同业等大型业者的实力。

    业内与银行知情人士告诉汤森路透,一些银行已开始在批准贷款申请前要求更实质的造船合约,它们也已经撤回之前发放给分行的贷款审批权。

    挪拉电讯将继续升高吗?

    挪拉电讯将继续升高吗?
    文: 韩巍 (译:伍丽芳) 2013年07月26日 技术分析
    挪拉电讯(Nera Telecommunications)的股价走势自今年7月初以来十分强劲。公司的股价强劲上升,并创下历史新高,显示它具备实力。其实,如果我们回头看6月的股市,当新加坡海峡时报指数(STI)大幅度下跌时,这只股仍能够维持良好的走势。

    随着交易量偏低,公司的股价最近回落。但目前为止,它仍在上升中。投资者可考虑在股价回撤时买入。止损点将在低于7月8日低位1个变动单位(tick)的水平。

    现在正值业绩发布期。在发布财报之前,公司通常有大约一周的时间通知其财报将在何时发布。公司至今还未在新加坡交易所的网站通知其来临的财务报告发布期。公司的股价不大可能会受其季度报告影响,因此投资者若作短期交易,应会相对较稳当。

    万能上升空间有限 投资者可考虑马化资本

    万能上升空间有限 投资者可考虑马化资本
    Created 07/26/2013 - 12:35
    (吉隆坡25日讯)基于万能(MAGNUM,3859,主板贸服股)股价上升空间有限,马银行投资银行分析员把评级从“买入”下调至“守住”,并认为市场可转向关注马化资本(MPHBCAP,5237,主板金融股)。

    万能早前宣布,通过马化资本限制售股给股东的献议,筹得7亿1500万令吉,以支付每股48.8仙的资本回退。上述活动除权日期为8月2日,而支付日期则定在8月20日。

    一旦资本回退完成后,公司的股票溢价户口将降至6亿9650万令吉,而每股账面净值(BVPS)则是48.8仙。

    手机设备需求强劲 科技股业绩看高一线

    手机设备需求强劲 科技股业绩看高一线
    Created 07/26/2013 - 12:06
    (吉隆坡25日讯)券商认为,市场对手机设备的需求强劲,有望推动科技股上半年业绩表现。

    达证券行分析员说:“上述预测符合马太平洋(MPI,3867,主板科技股)管理层的指引,他们放眼现财年次季的销售额,按季取得双位数增长。

    “同时,该公司在去年采取一系列的成本削减措施后,预料可稍微推高盈利赚幅。”

    另外,在个人电脑出口持续走低的情况下,他预计个人电脑业务的营业额将会疲软。

    Biggest Shipping Banks See End to Slump as Lending Recovers

    Biggest Shipping Banks See End to Slump as Lending Recovers
    Posted on July 26, 2013

    Nordea Bank AB (NDA) and DNB ASA (DNB), two of the world’s largest shipping lenders, are seeing signs of an end to the maritime industry’s five-year slump as bets grow on a recovery in sea-borne trade.

    Loan losses at Nordea’s shipping unit slid 15 percent in the second quarter from the first three months, hitting the lowest ratio since the third quarter of 2011. Operating profit grew to a seven-quarter high and loan losses at the largest Nordic bank’s maritime business will probably drop further, Nordea Chief Executive Officer Christian Clausen said.

    CapitaLand 2Q13 Results below expectations (UOBKH)

    CapitaLand
    Price/Tgt: S$3.21/S$4.45      
     1-Yr Hi/Lo: S$4.03/S$2.94      

    CapitaLand (CAPL SP) 2Q13 Results Flash: Net profit of S$383.1m, down 0.7% yoy, below expectations

    •    Results below expectations. CapitaLand reported 2Q13 net profit of S$383.1m bringing the 1H13 earnings to S$571.3m, up 10.1% yoy driven by strong revenue contribution from development projects in Singapore and China, as well as rental income from the shopping mall business. Excluding the impact of portfolio gains of S$108.5m, revaluation gains of S$232m, S$10.5m in impairment charges and S$27.7m one-off loss booked in 1H13, the core 1H13 operating profit of S$269m is below our expectations accounting for 33.6% of our full year forecast of S$801.5m (36.5% of consensus forecast of S$736.7m).

    No Longer Sitting On The Sidelines: Beneficiaries Of The Construction Boom (UOBKH)

    Construction Sector
    No Longer Sitting On The Sidelines: Beneficiaries Of The Construction Boom
    • Local construction boom until 2030. In the White Paper on Population, the government estimates a population of 6.5m-6.9m by 2030. To support the population boom, the government has invested heavily in infrastructure development. For 2013, the Building and Construction Authority (BCA) projects a strong construction demand of S$26b-32b (5 year average: S$30b), of which about 53% will come from the public sector. For 2014 and 2015, public-sector construction demand is forecast to remain strong at S$11b-14b per year, vs total construction demand of S$20b-28b per year.

    Cache Logistics Trust: More to come (DBSV)

    Cache Logistics Trust,
    Buy S$1.24,
    More to come
    Price Target : 12-Month S$ 1.45 (Prev S$ 1.47)

    •2Q13 DPU of 2.147 Scts in line
    •Acquisitions a likely catalyst; opportunities to extract further GFA in portfolio
    •BUY, TP S$1.45

    Highlights
    2Q13 DPU of 2.147 Scts in line.  Cache Logistics Trust (“Cache”) reported gross revenue and net property income of S$20.4m and S$19.6m, which were 16.5% and 17.0% higher y-o-y. The improved earnings were largely attributed to contribution from the acquisition of Precise Two, which was completed in April 13, supported by higher rental adjustments. Distributable income of S$16.6m was 20% higher y-o-y, translating to a DPU of 2.147 Scts (+8% y-o-y). Cache’s 1H13 DPU of 4.38 Scts forms c49% of our FY13F DPU.

    Malaysian Airline System - Load Factor Hits Fresh High

    Malaysian Airline System -
    Price Target:0.43
    Last Price:0.305
    Load Factor Hits Fresh High

    Malaysian Airline System (MAS)’s passenger load factor hit a new high of 84.3% in June. Its 2QFY13 overall load factor improved by 3.9% q-o-q and 4.9% y-o-y. This seems to indicate that MAS may be able to mitigate its  losses  in  2QFY13  amid  yield  pressure.  Maintain  Trading  BUY  on MAS, with our MYR0.43 FV unchanged.

    Cambridge Industrial Trust: Gaining In Strength (OSK)

    Cambridge Industrial Trust: Gaining In Strength
     (BUY, SGD0.74, TP: SGD0.81)
    Cambridge Industrial Trust (CREIT) declared a 2Q13 distribution per unit (DPU) of 1.24 cents (+5.1% y-o-y), in line with our FY13 forecast. Revenue for the quarter jumped 14.1% y-o-y to SGD24.6m while net property income rose 13.4% y-o-y to SGD20.8m. In view of its sturdy growth profile over the next few years, we maintain BUY on CREIT, with a higher DDM-based (COE:8.6%; TGR:2.0%) TP of SGD0.81

    Mapletree Commercial Trust 1Q14 DPU in line: Growth driven by strong reversions at VivoCity and Anson acquisition (CS)

    Mapletree Commercial Trust
    Maintain OUTPERFORM
    Price (24 Jul 13 , S$) 1.24
    TP (prev. TP S$) 1.45 (1.45)
    1Q14 DPU in line: Growth driven by strong reversions at VivoCity and Anson acquisition

    ● 1Q14 DPU of S¢1.753 was in line, at 25% our FY14E. Driven by a full quarter contribution from Mapletree Anson and strong reversions at VivoCity and PSAB, but DPU growth was partly offset by the 10% new units issued to finance Anson acquisition.

    Starhill Global REIT : Still Among Our Top Choices (MKE)

    Starhill Global REIT
    Buy (unchanged)
    Share price: SGD0.87
    Target price: SGD0.95 (from SGD1.00)
    Still Among Our Top Choices

    Orchard Road Star. We reiterate our preference for retail REITs in the current uncertain yield environment, especially as SGREIT’s key assets are in the coveted Orchard Road area, where tight supply and the entry of new international retailers give it greater bargaining power in terms of leasing its space. Looking ahead, the new rental rate from master tenant Toshin at Ngee Ann City (NAC) Retail, continued repositioning of Wisma Atria and rental uplift from Malaysia portfolio master leases will drive SGREIT’s income in 2H13 and keep the stock supported for now. At 5.7% FY13F yield and 330bps yield-spread, we reiterate BUY with a DDM-derived TP of SGD0.95.

    CapitaMalls Asia :The Harvesting Continues (MKE)

    CapitaMalls Asia
    Buy(unchanged)
    Share price: SGD1.94
    Target price: SGD2.51(from SGD2.57)
    The Harvesting Continues

    Earnings growth remains on track. CMA reported a 2Q13 core PATMI of SGD53.6m (-20% QoQ; +40% YoY), accounting for 21.6% of our full-year estimate and largely in line with expectations. More importantly, underlying net property income from its malls continues to improve steadily, underpinned by healthy tenants’ sales growth. Bedok Mall and Westgate are on track to open later this year, providing earnings growth for FY14. Reiterate BUY, TP adjusted to SGD2.51.

    Tigerair: Look beyond the bottom-line (OCBC)

    Tigerair:
    Fair value S$0.79
    add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.00
    versus: Current price S$0.62

    Look beyond the bottom-line
    • Associates fall but operating loss narrows
    • Unfazed by weaker 2Q14
    • Maintain BUY

    Tigerair (TR) reported weaker-than-expected 1Q14 results following continued losses from its associate airlines, which masked overall improvements in performance from Tigerair SG (TRS) and Tigerair AU (TRA). The group’s operating loss had narrowed to S$6.2m from S$11.8m over the same period a year ago but 1Q14 net loss

    曾淵滄專欄 26.07.13:百佳難擴張賣得過

    自從長建(1038)與電能(006)聯手投資英國電網後,這隻股就成了我長期持有的新愛股。集團昨日公佈半年業績,純利與電能一樣增長10%,但這半年的純利,不包括上個月剛剛以97億元收購的荷蘭垃圾處理業務所帶來的利潤,因此,今年利潤肯定超過10%。

    長建這家企業實際已由基建股變身公用股,而且不但間接通過持有電能股權來獲利,更直接參與海外公用事業的投資,公用事業能提供大量的現金流,因此,這一次長建派息非常慷慨,半年股息由去年的每股0.4元急增至今年的0.5元,增幅25%,如果下半年也如此大增派息率的話,全年收息比率可能超越4厘,是穩健、有增長潛能的收息股。

    Frasers Commercial Trust: Rising to the top (DBSV)

    Frasers Commercial Trust,
    Buy S$1.34,  
    Rising to the top
    Price Target : 12-Month S$ 1.61 (Prev S$ 1.69)
    •3Q13 results in line
    •Operational outlook stable; expiry of lease at Alexandra Technopark in 2014 could lead to higher earnings
    •BUY, revised TP of 1.61

    Highlights
    3Q13 DPU of 219 scts is in line. Frasers Commercial Trust (FCOT) reported a 16% and 13% y-o-y decline in gross revenue and NPI to S$30.0m and S$23.1m, respectively. The drop is largely due to the divestment of Keypoint and its Japanese properties, and a weaker AUD-SGD exchange rate. This was partially offset by contribution from the additional 50% stake in Caroline Chisholm Centre and Central Park. However, savings from lower interest expenses (all-in cost of 2.8%) and the repurchase of its CPPUs (funded by the proceeds from the sale of Keypoint), resulted in a 31.2% y-o-y uplift in distributions to S$14.4m, translating to a DPU of 2.19 Scts.

    Wilmar International : Reading more into the deal (CIMB)

    Wilmar International
    Current S$3.16
    Target S$3.74
    Reading more into the deal

     Wilmar's deal to buy a stake in Noble Plantations has fallen through as it failed to get approvals from the relevant authorities. We are neutral on this as it does not affect our earnings forecasts and the deal is small relative to Wilmar’s shareholders funds. But it could have wider implications for the Indonesian palm oil industry if approval was not granted because of the proposal to limit plantation companies’ ownership of estates to 100k ha each. This may affect the expansion plans of large-cap planters with over 100k ha of planted estates. Wilmar has been forward-looking and has started to expand to Africa. This supports our Outperform call. We maintain our SOP-based target price.

    Pan United: Singapore’s Largest Cement And RMC Supplier (UOBKH)

    Pan United
    Share Price S$0.895
    Target Price S$1.25
    Singapore’s Largest Cement And RMC Supplier
    Valuation/Recommendation
    • Initiate coverage with a BUY and a SOTP-based target price of S$1.25. As the largest supplier of cement and RMC in Singapore, we believe Pan United (PUC) will be one of the largest beneficiaries of the local construction boom. We like the company for its market leader position in the industry, steady recurring income from one of China’s top 10 ports and its strong balance sheet. Our target price has an implied 2014F PE of 13.8x, which is within its historical PE range of 4.5-16.9x since 2003.

    埃及動亂影響銷量 券商促套利Power Root

    埃及動亂影響銷量 券商促套利Power Root
    財經 [1] 股市 [2]
    25 Jul 2013 20:34

     (吉隆坡25日訊)埃及動亂衝擊Power Root(PWROOT,7237,主要板消費)在當地銷量訂單,佔總比重27%至28%,前景深具挑戰性,券商建議套利,合理價2.26令吉。

     肯納格證券研究分析師在報告中指出,埃及動亂遲遲未能平息,使出口至埃及佔總數27%至28%的Power Root,銷售訂單亦受干擾。

     分析師指出,埃及曾是該公司深具保障的市場,除了本財年佔出口銷量比重達28%,亦佔總銷量約9%,與沙地阿拉伯及阿聯酋並列3大主要出口市場。

    Thursday, July 25, 2013

    盈利展望欠佳 友尼森目標价下调

    (吉隆坡25日讯)友尼森(UNISEM,5005,主板科技股)2013財政年次季(截至6月30日止)继续亏损,盈利展望欠佳,让分析员喊卖及下调目標价;该股週四也在卖压中走跌,报价0.96令吉,全天挫5仙,或4.95%。

    友尼森次季营业额按年和按季分別滑落12.7%及1.1%,不过。亏损却有所改善,按年及按季分別缩小44.7%和56.9%,至420万令吉。惟其亏损仍在达证券分析员预料之外。

    亏损收窄主要是友尼森在过去季度一系列的成本削减举措。分析员举例,该公司已將员工人数从去年同期的9069人,减至7819人。

    OUE Hospitality rises in IPO debut on yield

    WRITTEN BY BLOOMBERG  
    THURSDAY, 25 JULY 2013 18:21

    OUE Hospitality Trust, which owns a Singapore downtown hotel and shopping mall, opened higher on its first day of trading in the island-state, supported by returns that exceed those of comparable properties.

    The shares opened at 88.5 cents at 2 p.m. local time, 0.6% higher than the initial stock offering price of 88 cents apiece. The closed unchanged after swinging between gains and losses in the first 10 minutes of trading. The benchmark Straits Times Index fell 1.2%. Hospitality Trust sold 681.8 million units at the lower end of its price range.

    Unisem suffers downgrades after 2Q results

    Unisem suffers downgrades after 2Q results
    Business & Markets 2013
    Written by Ho Wah Foon of theedgemalaysia.com    
    Thursday, 25 July 2013 14:38

    KUALA LUMPUR (July 25): Unisem Bhd suffered downgrades by several research houses this morning after it produced another set of disappointing results and guided that outlook stays challenging.

    Yesterday, the company announced that its second quarter to June 2013 (2QFY13) suffered a net loss of RM4.2 million on the back of lower revenue of RM246.9 million.

    MIDF Equity, in a note today, said: “On the back of poor earnings performance, we are slashing our earnings estimate for FY13 and FY14 by 82.6% and 46.7% respectively to be at the conservative end.

    股神最愛富國揸足廿年

    股神巴菲特向來鍾情投資金融股,在金融海嘯期間曾斥巨資投機性入股高盛、美國銀行,及擁有通用金融的通用電氣(GE),但長線持有幾乎只得富國銀行,持股超過二十年,更於去年第四季取代可口可樂,進身第一大愛股地位。





    中資銀行遭睇衰 六年河東變河西

    中國工商銀行丟失市值第一,拱手讓予美國富國銀行,凸顯位於太平洋兩岸的中國及美國,經濟形勢、金融形勢實現了互易。中國諺語謂,十年河東十年河西,又謂三十年河東三十年河西。這是比喻風水輪流轉,盛衰無常的「長周期」,但全球市值第一銀行的風水流轉,只不過用了六年時間,六年河東變河西,恐怕這風水流轉也確實短促。

    工行之失,應是不止於市值第一的寶座,亦是中資銀行業狀況的縮影,凸顯了投資信心的衰落。有數據顯示,以市值與存款的比值來比較,中資銀行每一美元存款,只對應八美分市值,低於西班牙銀行業的九美分,與美國銀行業○九年時的水平不相上下。這是甚麼概念?就是在投資者眼中,與歐債危機及金融海嘯等同的危機水平,那是棄如敝屣的「投資價值」水平。

    Sunway expects bigger consumer growth

    Sunway expects bigger consumer growth
    Business & Markets 2013
    Written by Zatil Husna Wan Fauzi of theedgemalaysia.com    
    Thursday, 25 July 2013 10:35

    PETALING JAYA: Sunway Bhd, which has partnered with Syarikat Prasarana Nasional Bhd to build the Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) Sunway Line, expects a bigger consumer growth in Sunway Resort City upon completion of the BRT as well as the Subang Jaya LRT stations.

    “With better connectivity for people, we see bigger consumer growth for Sunway. And I believe the government is waiting for this system to work before implementing it in other parts of the country,” Sunway founder and chairman Tan Sri Jeffrey Cheah told The Edge Financial Daily yesterday.

    Earnings rebound seen for Robert Kuok’s Maybulk

    Earnings rebound seen for Robert Kuok’s Maybulk
    Business & Markets 2013
    Written by Chong Jin Hun of theedgemalaysia.com    
    Thursday, 25 July 2013 11:26

    KUALA LUMPUR (July 25): MALAYSIAN BULK CARRIERS BHD [ ], controlled by tycoon Robert Kuok, is expected to report  higher profit in the near term in anticipation of an increase in  dry bulk shipping charter rates, analysts said.

    In a note today, HwangDBS Investment Bank Bhd analyst Goh Yin Foo said charter rates could have bottomed, hence, the research firm expects Maybulk’s net profit to rise 51% and 53% year-on-year in financial years (FY) ending December 31, 2014 and 2015 respectively.

    Frasers Commercial Trust: Solid Portfolio But Short On Growth Drivers (OSK)

    Frasers Commercial Trust: Solid Portfolio But Short On Growth Drivers
     (Neutral, SGD1.34, TP: SGD1.43)

    FCOT reported a 3QFY13 distribution per unit (DPU) of 2.19 cents (+28.8% y-o-y) which, along with its 1HFY13 DPU of 3.57 cents, account for 43.8% of our full-year forecast. Although DPU is expected to continue to grow through 4Q13 after the redemption of c. 96% of its CPPUs in 1HFY13, we downgrade FCOT to NEUTRAL in view of rising potential risks, but with a slightly higher DDM-based TP of SGD1.43.

    Malaysian Bulk Carriers : Set to sail (Hwang)

    Malaysian Bulk Carriers Bhd
    Trading Buy
    Set to sail

    • More upside, less downside. Malaysian Bulk Carriers (Maybulk; stock code 5077; RM1.80) offers an interesting trading proposition for investors to ride on an earnings rebound-cum-value unlocking play. The Group’s fundamentals were previously hit by depressed bulk shipping charter rates. But its fortunes appear to be turning up as charter rates in the dry bulk shipping industry could have hit bottom already. Tracking this, the Baltic Dry Index (a global barometer for freight rates for dry bulk carriers) – after slumping from a 3-year high of 2,995 in Sep 2010 to a recent low of 801 in early Jun – has since climbed 41% (see Chart 1).

    Forterra Trust: New Backer in Sight (SIAS)

    Forterra Trust:
    Invest
    New Backer in Sight
    • Intrinsic Value S$2.45
    • Prev Closing Price S$2.05

    On Monday evening, Forterra Trust (Forterra) announced the conditional contract by Nan Fung International Holdings (Nan Fung) to acquire 100% of the equity in Forterra Real Estate (trustee manager) and 29.98% in Forterra (business trust).

    Nan Fung is one of the largest privately owned property developers in Hong Kong with HK$19.6bn of securities portfolio and “billions of dollars in annual turnover”. We see this acquisition as a positive development for the trust as Forterra now has an established sponsor which may be capable of injecting new assets. Nan Fung will also gain more exposure into the China commercial real estate trust.

    CapitaMalls Asia : 1H13 in line (CS)

    CapitaMalls Asia
    Maintain OUTPERFORM
    Price (23 Jul 13 , S$) 1.94
    TP (prev. TP S$) 2.58 (2.58)
    1H13 in line: PATMI up 62% with 70% of CH NAV operational, further boosted by ION, Star Vista

    ● 1H13 core profit of S$120.2 mn was in line at 49% of our FY13E, driven by: (1) higher contribution from nine malls opened in 2012; (2) contributions from 2012 acquisitions; (3) stronger contribution from REITs; and (4) profit recognised from Bedok Residences.

    Frasers Centrepoint Trust : Gazing at the northern lights (DBSV)

    Frasers Centrepoint Trust
    BUY S$1.90
    STI : 3,253.76
    Price Target : 12-Month S$ 2.33
    Gazing at the northern lights

    • 3Q13 results in line
    • Strong performances at Causeway Point and North Point
    • Management reconfiguring Bedok Point
    • Maintain BUY, TP S$2.33

    Another solid quarter. FCT recorded S$40m revenue (+12% y-oy), S$28 NPI (+15% y-o-y) and S$21m distributable income (+14% yo- y). The strong set of results was attributable to higher contributions from post-AEI Causeway Point (CWP) and Northpoint (NP). DPU for 3Q13 was 2.85Scts, which included distribution of S$0.4m of retained income, bringing 9M13 DPU to 7.95Scts. This comprises c.72% of our FY13 forecast.

    Sheng Siong : Strong Execution Lifts Margins (OSK)

    Sheng Siong
    Target Price: SGD0.78
    Price: SGD0.70
    Strong Execution Lifts Margins

     SSG’s 2Q13 earnings of SGD8.5m (+21% y-o-y, -19% q-o-q) were in line as strong execution lifted margins and mitigated topline weakness. Despite trimming our estimates by 8% each, the company may still achieve 13% and 12% growth for FY13F and FY14F respectively. To better reflect its cash-generative profile and SGD118m cash balance, we switch to DCF and derive a higher TP of SGD0.78. Upgrade to BUY.

    CapitaMall Trust: Another promising quarter (OCBC)

    CapitaMall Trust:
    Fair value S$2.35
    add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.101
    versus: Current price S$2.02

    Another promising quarter
    • 2Q13 results above view
    • Positive leasing demand
    • Fundamentals further enhanced

    CapitaMall Trust (CMT) reported DPU of 2.53 S cents, up 6.3% YoY. Together with 1Q DPU of 2.46 S cents, 1H13 DPU totaled 4.99 S cents (+6.6%), forming 50.9% of FY13F DPU. This is above our expectations given that a total of S$12.3m or c.0.36 S cents retained over 1H is available for distribution in 2H13. As at 30 Jun, CMT’s portfolio occupancy stood at 99.1%, up 0.9ppt QoQ, while positive rental reversion of 6.4%

    Suntec REIT: Recovery possibly in sight (OCBC)

    Suntec REIT:
    Fair value S$1.85
    add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.092
    versus: Current price S$1.53

    Recovery possibly in sight
    • 2Q13 DPU up 0.9% QoQ
    • Portfolio occupancy remains high
    • S$13.09 passing rents post Phase 1 AEI

    Suntec REIT’s 2Q13 DPU was up 0.9% QoQ (-4.7% YoY) to 2.249 S cents, helped by a S$7.8m capital distribution from Chijmes sale proceeds. For 1H13, DPU amounted to 4.477 S cents, down 7.0% YoY and 4.3% HoH, and formed 48.1% of our full-year DPU forecasts. This is broadly in line with our expectations, as Suntec REIT’s financial performance is likely to improve going forward now that the Phase 1 space has become operational in Jun. For the first time,

    曾淵滄專欄25.07.13:逢低吸納好日子到

    滙豐公佈中國7月份的PMI初值為47.7,比上個月的48.2更低,創11個月新低,這項訊息使到港股初段下跌,之後才慢慢回升。

    PMI數值下跌不是甚麼大問題,反正中國國務院已經為中國經濟的增長率設下底線,即保七,一旦經濟下滑至底線,國務院、人民銀行必定會出手救市,中國政府若想救市,易如反掌,7月15日我已經在本欄分析過,中國只要能保七,已經是世界第一了,擔心甚麼?只要能保七,股市也壞不到那裏,總而言之,今後一段日子是逢低吸納的好日子。

    Ascendas India Trust: Steady performance masked by challenging FX (JPM)

    Ascendas India Trust
    Price: S$0.71
    Price Target: S$0.77
    Steady performance masked by challenging FX

    AIT reported 1Q14 DPU of S1.14¢ (-5% Y/Y) driven in part by 2% YY currency depreciation. In INR terms, DPU was flat Y/Y at Rs0.51/unit, given a higher capital base. NPI growth of 6% Y/Y was aided by lower operating and utility expenses. NAV stood at S$0.6 (Rs28) per unit.

    •Near-term volume growth visibility is strong: AIT has two buildings completing over the next six months in Aviator (Bangalore, expected Dec-13) and Avance (Hyderabad, expected Jun-13), totaling 1.3 msf, which should add 18% to the overall portfolio. The full impact of these building leasings will likely flow through F15 onward. On Avance, AIT currently gets a nominal yield on the advance it had given for construction. As the building leases (41% leased currently), this will keep being converted to equity, which should have a higher yield. In Bangalore, while Aviator is currently just 26% leased, given the micro market trends, we expect take up rates for the building to improve substantially once it reaches completion levels.

    Tiger Airways : Transformation in progress (DBSV)

    Tiger Airways
    BUY S$0.62
    STI : 3,234.35
    Price Target : 12-Month S$ 0.74 (Prev S$ 0.79)
    Transformation in progress

    • Weak 1Q results due to higher airport charges at Changi and higher associate losses
    • Better operating quarters ahead as the Group is working on a clean slate following partial sale of Tigerair Australia to Virgin Australia
    • Remain positive despite lowering FY14/15 earnings by 32%/22% respectively as Tigerair’s transformation is progressing well
    • Maintain BUY with lower TP of S$0.74

    Wednesday, July 24, 2013

    更多工程陆续出炉 油气领域前景正面

    (吉隆坡24日讯)隨著国家石油与国际油气公司皆提高资本开销,分析员相信,今年会陆续颁发更多工程,而让业者受惠。分析员因而对该领域维持正面態度。

    除了国家石油(Petronas)的资本开销,分析员认为,其他国际油气公司的资本开销也值得关注,因为今年以来,颁发给国內上市公司的工程当中,几乎70%是来自非国油所颁发。

    其中包括,柏力赛石油(PERISAI,0047,主板工业股)成功从大马黑斯勘探与生產(Hess ExplorationandProduction Malaysia)获得的浮式生產储油船(FPSO)工程;沙布拉肯查纳石油(SKPETRO,5218,主板贸服股)获得巴西国家石油公司(Petrobras)颁发铺管支援船(Pipe Layingsupport Vessel)租赁合约;马海事重工程(MHB,5186,主板贸服股)从沙巴蜆壳公司(Sabah Shell)手中获得的Malikai张力脚式平台(TLP)工程。

    SPH REIT rises in IPO debut on yield attraction

    WRITTEN BY BLOOMBERG  
    WEDNESDAY, 24 JULY 2013 18:03

    SPH REIT, the owner of the Paragon mall along Singapore’s shopping belt, gained on its first day of trading as investors were attracted by returns higher than those of comparable properties.

    The shares jumped 9.4% to 98.5 cents at the close of trading. The stock was offered at 90 cents apiece, the top end of its price range. They started trading at 2 p.m. Singapore time and were 37 times subscribed.

    “It was super oversubscribed as bond yields have stabilized a bit of late, which helped investor interest pick up,” Vikrant Pandey, a Singapore-based analyst at UOB Kay Hian Pte said. “Also retail assets are considered more of a defensive play so thats helped generate interest too.”

    YTLC equipped for 1BestariNet project

    Kamalanathan: YTLC equipped for 1BestariNet project
    Business & Markets 2013
    Written by Fatin Rasyiqah Mustaza of theedgemalaysia.com    
    Wednesday, 24 July 2013 09:51

    KUALA LUMPUR: YTL Communications Sdn Bhd (YTLC), a unit of YTL POWER INTERNATIONAL BHD [ ], is well equipped to undertake the 1BestariNet and Chromebook (laptop) supply projects, said Second Deputy Education Minister, P Kamalanathan.

    “They have the ability to do the job. We have seen some of the work they have done and we are very impressed with it,” he told The Edge Financial Daily in an interview.

    推硬盘驱动器增产 JCY国际可达收支平衡

    推硬盘驱动器增产 JCY国际可达收支平衡
    Created 07/24/2013 - 11:00
    (吉隆坡23日讯)JCY国际(JCY,5161,主板科技股)财务执行董事黄敬铿预料,下半年业绩将提高至收支平衡水平。

    截至3月31日的现财年上半年,JCY国际净亏4651万令吉。

    黄敬铿向《The Edge》表示:“我们对领域前景抱着正面看法,对2013财年达到收支平衡也有信心。

    公司业绩将因一些因素继续增长,但这些因素的盈利效应,只能在2014财年体现。”

    TECHNICS : GAS Secures Financing For New Leasing Business

    TECHNICS OIL & GAS Secures Financing For New Leasing Business
    Written by Leong Chan Teik
    Wednesday, 24 July 2013 07:00

    TECHNICS OIL & GAS recently announced that it has established a S$200 million multi-currency medium term note programme.

    This is aimed at, among others, supporting its new move into building and owning assets for lease to its oil-and-gas clients, according to the management in an interview with NextInsight.

    The leasing market has been growing and Technics had announced in May that it had been awarded its first leasing contract worth S$3.6m for two gas compressor engine-driven packages by a Malaysian client.

    ROTARY ENGINEERING : The Worse Is Over, Looking To Better Times Ahead (Limtan)

    ROTARY ENGINEERING
    S$0.58-RTRY.SI
    The Worse Is Over, Looking To Better Times Ahead

    Key Highlights
    We are recommending a Buy on Rotary Engineering, as the company refocus their efforts in Singapore where more than 90% of their new order wins to date come from. In particular,
    (1) prospects of additional contract wins (we estimate about $1bln worth of new contracts in the pipeline),
    (2) expectations of earnings recovery,

    Indonesia Coal Mining :Streak of misfortunes (CS)

    Indonesia Coal Mining Sector
    Streak of misfortunes

    ● Indonesia’s coal mining sector has been under pressure amid a declining coal price environment. As the sector has a structural issue with an oversupply situation, we do not expect coal prices to recover soon. We reflect this in our coal price assumptions of US$86/t for this year and US$91/t for 2014, with a long-term assumption of US$100/t.

    ● Despite the structural problem, we prefer Bukit Asam (PTBA), given its improving railway transportation capacity which had constrained growth. PTBA’s coal is of high grade and the company has sizeable reserves for over 100 years; it is among the lowest cost producers in the region and has net cash with no debts. For FY14/FY15, we expect PTBA’s production to grow 22%/14% and profit to grow 21%/ 51%.

    Frasers Centrepoint Trust : A Better Than Expected 3Q (OSK)

    Frasers Centrepoint Trust
    Target Price: SGD2.20
    Price: SGD1.90
    A Better Than Expected 3Q

     FCT reported a distribution per unit (DPU) of 2.85 cents (+9.6% y-o-y) for 3QFY13, above our FY13 forecasts by 1.4%. Revenue for the quarter grew 12.4% y-o-y to SGD40.0m while net property income climbed 15.4% y-o-y to SGD28.5m. In view of the better-than-expected results, we are upgrading FCT to a BUY, with our DDM-based TP tweaked slightly higher to SGD2.20.

    Sheng Siong : Toppish Valuations (MKE)

    Sheng Siong Group
    Hold (from Buy)
    Share price: SGD0.695
    Target price: SGD0.74 (unchanged)
    Toppish Valuations; Cut to HOLD

    In-line with expectations, downgrade to HOLD. 1H13 revenue of SGD339.2m (10.6% YoY), and core net profit of SGD19m (26.7% YoY) comes in-line with ours and consensus’s expectations. An interim dividend of SGD1.2cts was announced (87% of 1H payout), up by 0.2cts from last year’s interim dividend. We downgrade the counter on the grounds of valuations appearing toppish.

    CapitaMalls Asia :The Harvesting Continues (MKE)

    CapitaMalls Asia
    Buy(unchanged)
    Share price: SGD1.94
    Target price: SGD2.51(from SGD2.57)
    The Harvesting Continues

    Earnings growth remains on track. CMA reported a 2Q13 core PATMI of SGD53.6m (-20% QoQ; +40% YoY), accounting for 21.6% of our full-year estimate and largely in line with expectations. More importantly, underlying net property income from its malls continues to improve steadily, underpinned by healthy tenants’ sales growth. Bedok Mall and Westgate are on track to open later this year, providing earnings growth for FY14. Reiterate BUY, TP adjusted to SGD2.51.

    Suntec REIT : Nascent shoots of "growth" (DBSV)

    Suntec REIT
    BUY S$1.53
    STI : 3,213.26
    (Upgrade from HOLD)
    Price Target : 12-Month S$ 1.91 (Prev S$ 1.99)

    Nascent shoots of "growth"
    • 2Q13 DPU of 2.249 Scts in line
    • Phase 1 of Suntec Mall reopens; positive vibes from mall visit
    • Upgrade to BUY, TP S$1.91

    DPU of 2.249 Scts in line. Due to AEI works at Suntec Mall (phases 1 and 2), Suntec REIT’s 2Q13 topline and net property income were 34% and 39% lower y-o-y at S$46.9m and S$28.0m, respectively. This was partly offset by higher revenue from its office which continues to enjoy high occupancy of 99.7% with leases secured at S$8.42 psf/mth in the quarter.

    李克強定調保七

    本報訊】終極底線揭盅!內地傳媒昨報道,國務院總理李克強7月16日在中南海經濟座談會上提出GDP增長下限是7.5%,並強調「經濟增長底線是7%,不允許越過這個底線」,即「保七」才是真正下限。
    記者:黃尹華 周燕芬

    中央將經濟增長下限由原本的7.5%目標調低至底線為「保七」,事先已露口風。新任財政部部長樓繼偉7月14日在美國表示,「6.5%或者7%都不是一個大問題,今年的經濟增長率預期是7%,達到預期將不會有太大問題。」有關言論令市場惴測中央已經下調今年經濟增長目標。

    Capitamall Trust : Journey to the West (DBSV)

    Capitamall Trust
    HOLD S$2.02
    STI : 3,213.26
    Price Target : 12-Month S$ 2.20 (Prev S$ 2.36)

    Journey to the West
    • 2Q13 results in line
    • AEI works at Bugis Junction to complete by 4Q13
    • Management in the midst of repositioning Jurong malls
    • Maintain HOLD, TP S$2.20

    Stable performance. CMT recorded 2Q13 revenue of S$183m (+10% y-o-y), NPI of S$126m (+12%) and distributable income of S$88m (+10%), translating to 2Q13 DPU of 2.53Scts, and 4.99Scts for 1H13. This increase was attributable to contribution from the completion of its AEI activities at JCube, Bugis+ and The Atrium@Orchard, offsetting weaker rental income from IMM and Plaza Singapura due to ongoing AEIs and the loss of an anchor tenant respectively.

    曾淵滄專欄 24.07.13:炒作十倍股的藝術

    曾淵滄專欄:炒作十倍股的藝術

    目前股市很大程度上屬於個別發展階段,有些板塊股價創歷史新高,有些板塊跌得很慘,也有些是不死半活的,有些則剛剛從歷史高位調整下來,幅度也不輕,是賺錢是虧錢,就看你買中哪一些股。

    一注獨贏是很難很難的,因為沒有一隻股能夠長時間只升不跌,升了一陣子,調整了,是繼續持有?還是止賺?相信更多人選擇止賺,也因為止賺,這些人永遠只能「賺粒糖」。不少人批評較缺乏經驗的投資者有膽輸、冇膽贏,這是不正確的指摘,如果股價只升不跌,人人都有膽贏,不會輕易賣掉,一隻能升10倍的股,上升過程也是一波三折,不會一次過上升10倍。

    曹仁超:港股睇23900

    本報訊】中國高增長集團首席經濟學家曹仁超(曹sir)唱好牛市未完,直指潛在升幅仍有近2000點。正當一眾散戶昨在大升市下猶豫不決,縱橫股壇40年的曹sir昨分析指,大市自09年至今均未脫離牛市,目前調整或已完成,並重拾升勢的階段,預料後市可以「W」形一浪高於一浪,「二萬二或者有阻力,但唔代表牛市完結……最大可能性呢一鋪係高過23900點」。
    記者:林靜 高明輝

    港股昨突然擺脫悶局狂彈近500點,恒指昨重上俗稱牛熊線的250日線,曹sir昨日接受本報記者電話訪問時表示,雖然牛熊線失而復得,但實際上牛市不是一條牛熊線定奪得失,「呢個世界唔係咁簡單㗎」。以他的準則,是當大市低過牛熊線15%以上,熊市便可能完結;而當高過牛熊線20%或以上,牛市便有機會轉向,「除非跌破咗18000點,先可以代表牛市完結。」

    Tiger Airways : Weak 1Q FY14 results due to higher associate losses and lower fares (CS)

    Tiger Airways
    Maintain UNDERPERFORM
    Price (22 Jul 13, S$) 0.62
    TP (prev. TP S$) 0.67 (0.62)
    Weak 1Q FY14 results due to higher associate losses and lower fares

    ● Tiger 1Q FY14 net loss of S$34 mn, widened from -S$14 mn in 1Q FY13. We attribute this to larger associated losses, mainly from Tigerair Mandala of Indonesia (S$21 mn loss) and weaker fares (-8% YoY), as Tiger was unable to pass on the higher airport tax to its customers.

    ● Tiger completed the sale of its 60% stake in Tiger Australia on 8 July. It is expected to report a gain of S$110 mn, which has driven the 194% upgrade to our FY13 EPS.

    Tuesday, July 23, 2013

    Hunza to earn steady recurring income

    Hunza to earn steady recurring income
    2013/07/23

    GEORGE TOWN: The opening of the Gurney Paragon Mall will enable Hunza Properties Bhd to earn a steady recurring income, says
    executive chairman, Datuk Khor Teng Tong.

    He said Hunza had invested close to RM500 million in the mall which demonstrates its confidence in the local economy.

    "It is also proof that we are in this for the long haul. We are now a real estate investor, investing our retained surpluses into owning and managing assets to earn a steady recurring income," he said at the mall's soft launch here today.

    高賺益產品助攻‧海鷗財測調高

    高賺益產品助攻‧海鷗財測調高
    Created 07/23/2013 - 17:44
    (吉隆坡23日訊)海鷗企業(HAIO,7668,主板貿服組)的多層次直銷已從過去兩三年頹勢復甦,加上不斷推出高賺益產品群與燕窩銷售亞洲與中國市場有待釋放價值,興業研究看好其前景及調高今後兩財政年淨利預測4%與6.6%。

    分析員說,海鷗企業多層次直銷為營業額貢獻超過60%、同時是稅前盈利的50%,已逐步由過去兩年頹勢好轉,2013財政年營業額與營運盈利成長達18.4%與24.7%;毛賺益按年由38.2%升至39.4%,息稅前賺益由20.3%提高至23.7%。

    First phase of YTL Land’s The Fennel sold out during preview

    First phase of YTL Land’s The Fennel sold out during preview
    Business & Markets 2013
    Written by Wong Mei Kay of theedgemalaysia.com    
    Tuesday, 23 July 2013 10:43

    PETALING JAYA: The first phase of YTL Land & Development Bhd’s urban renewal of Sentul — The Fennel at Sentul East — received an overwhelming response during its preview at YTL Land Sales Gallery in Jalan Bukit Bintang, Kuala Lumpur last weekend.

    The preview of the freehold condominium project started last Friday and by the end of the second day, all available units were fully taken up. The units are priced from RM658,000 to RM1.06 million.

    综指虽无法站稳1800点 买进高贝他油气产业建筑股

    综指虽无法站稳1800点 买进高贝他油气产业建筑股
    Created 07/23/2013 - 12:43
    (吉隆坡22日讯)经过2个多月剧烈波动后,马股今日再突破1800点大关,无奈午盘涨势不继而回跌,不过市场人士看好马股短期内有能力维持涨势,呼吁投资者趁势探寻被低估的高贝他股,特别是油气、产业和建筑领域。

    上周五,马股指标富时吉隆坡综合指数临门一脚,未能冲破1800点心理水平,以1797.74点闭市。

    本周一开市不久,综指即加足马力冲破心理大关直攀至1803.31点,休市前稍微回软至1799.54点的水平,半天扬1.80点或0.1%。

    Sing Holdings is slated to launch Waterwoods EC (Punggol) in Sep 2013 (AM)

    Sing Holdings is slated to launch Waterwoods EC (Punggol) in Sep 2013.

    We have strong reasons to believe that it will be a successful one.

    • Buoyant EC market continues to enjoy strong supply-demand dynamics. The EC market has continued to be a buoyant one, with two new recent EC launches registering strong interest from applicants. According to news reports, Ecopolitan, a 512-unit EC development located at Punggol Way/Punggol Walk, was 2 times oversubscribed at the close of application date 7 July 2013. On the other hand, Lush Acres, a 380-unit EC project located at Sengkang West Way/Fernvale Link, was 1.6 times oversubscribed since its launch on 13 July 2013. The indicative price ranges for both projects are S$750 to S$800psf.

    COURAGE MARINE: Hong Kong Shares Surge Eightfold In Two Days

    COURAGE MARINE: Hong Kong Shares Surge Eightfold In Two Days
    Written by Andrew Vanburen (China Correspondent)
    Tuesday, 23 July 2013 08:39

    ASIAN BULK SHIPPER Courage Marine (HK: 1145; SGX: E91) saw its Hong Kong-listed shares surge eightfold -- from 0.27 hkd to 2.16 hkd --  over just two trading days. Amazingly, the stock achieved an intra-day high of 4.10 hkd.

    The company issued statements saying it did not know the reasons behind the soaring share price and trading turnover.

    內銀恐缺資7800億

    人民銀行撤銷貸款利率下限,業界普遍認為不利內銀股,內地更有研究機構認為,未來兩年內銀或需集資最多1,000億美元(約7,800億港元),藉此維持現有資本充足率水平。

    數庫財務諮詢公司發表報告指,人行措施將加速銀行間信貸業務競爭,拉低未來數年商業銀行利潤,原因是大部分銀行利潤來自利息收入,假設未來兩年間內銀淨利息收入下跌10%,而風險加權資產增加15%,內銀將面臨約500億至1,000億美元資金缺口,藉此維持現有資本充足率水平。

    造船業下沉中央苦撐中遠 熔盛南通廠生產力大減

    【江蘇直擊】
    瀕臨爆煲需向政府求救的熔盛(1101)掀起南通當地造船業的財困風暴,《蘋果》記者前往南通直擊觀察超過10間船廠,發現除了熔盛外,其他民營船企皆陷入半停工狀態,船廠周邊因缺少人口流動變為「死城」,而有阿爺撐腰的中遠(1919)母公司中遠集團的船廠仍有工開,反映當地「國進民退」情況嚴重,造船業瀕臨破產邊緣,隨時成中國版底特律。

    江蘇省南通市坐擁210公里海岸線,有利製船業,該市去年GDP達4,558.7億元,排江蘇省第四,其中造船業、紡織、石化、港口、機械、電子及化工佔GDP超過六成,被江蘇人稱為「北上海」。不過由於造船業屬資本密集性行業,船廠由造船至交付給船東前,除了靠船東所交的定單首期外,資金來源主要靠借貸。

    SPH Reit : Long-term exposure to resilient retail and growing healthcare services sectors in Singapore (NRA)

    SPH Reit
    Issue price S$0.90

     Post IPO
    Total issued units
    2,501.0 m
    Market cap
    S$2,250.9m
    NAV
    S$0.89
    DPU yield (2HFY13e)*^
    5.58%
    DPU yield (FY14e)^
    5.79%
    Free Float
    14.6%

     Long-term exposure to resilient retail and growing healthcare services sectors in Singapore

    Fraser & Neave : SOP value after capital reduction (CIMB)

    Fraser & Neave
    Current S$5.63
    Target S$6.53
    SOP value after capital reduction

     FNN shares have commenced “ex” trading. We believe that more clarity from TCC/Thai Bev on its plans to 1) restructure FNN’s F&B and property businesses and 2) restore the stock’s public float will be the key milestones to watch for and could catalyse the stock.

    We slash our SOP estimates from S$10.94 to S$7.60,largely to account for the capital reduction. Our FY14-15 core EPS numbers are cut by 3-6%. Thus, our target price (still based on a 20% discount to its property RNAV) is now lower. We estimate that investors will be getting its property business at an implied discount to RNAV of 37% –among the widest in the sector. Maintain Outperform.

    Tiger Airways : A challenging battle ahead (CIMB)

    Tiger Airways
    Current S$0.62
    Target S$0.60
    A challenging battle ahead

     Tigerair’s 1Q was poorer than expected, registering a core net loss of S$17m against our full-year profit forecast of S$15m, on unexpectedly large losses in Australia and at its Indonesian and Philippine associates as well as a surprising fall in Singapore passenger yields.

    As a result, we downgrade our FY14 forecast to a loss and also reduce estimates for future years. We cut our target price as we change the basis of our valuation from 11x CY14 P/E (sector average) to 1x P/BV as the EPS cuts render the former method less usable. We downgrade to Underperform from Neutral, with de-rating catalysts from continued losses in Australia, Indonesia and the Philippines.

    IOI Corporation : A Step Closer To Unlocking Value (UOBKH)

    IOI Corporation
    Share Price RM5.45
    Target Price RM6.35
    A Step Closer To Unlocking Value

    We see rising confidence on the listing of IOI Properties Group post-issuance of the IPO draft prospectus. The key is the reasonable valuation shown in the valuer’s report addressing concern over asset pricing and potential upside post-IPO. The bulk of the revaluation comes from its Johor landbank and projects in Singapore, which remain valued at below market prices to stay conservative. Maintain BUY. Target price: RM6.35.

    China Equity Strategy : Lending Rate Liberalization Is Negative to NIM Outlook (Citi)

    China Equity Strategy
    Alert: Lending Rate Liberalization Is Negative to NIM Outlook
     Look beyond the lending rate liberalization – China’s PBOC announced Friday to abolish controls over lending rates except maintaining the floor for mortgage loans. This move is symbolic because the lending rate floor was in large part not biding, but it hints that the authorities had committed on structural reforms when defending economic growth. The next step to relax the deposit rates ceiling probably in the coming 12 months could mean asymmetric rate hikes to banks. The lending rate liberalization may improve the market sentiment on reform, but leaves little room for rate cuts and is negative to NIM outlook.

    CapitaMall Trust: Earnings Remain Strong (OSK)

    CapitaMall Trust: Earnings Remain Strong
     (BUY, SGD2.00, TP: SGD2.21)

    CapitalMall Trust (CT) reported a DPU of 2.53 cents (+6.1% y-o-y) for 2Q13, in line with our forecast with a deviation of 1.2% (7.8% if the retained amount of SGD5.7m was included). Revenue for the period grew 10.4% y-o-y to SGD182.7m, while NPI climbed 12.2% y-o-y to SGD125.6m. Given its strong earnings and recent share price correction, we upgrade CT to a BUY, with a higher TP of SGD2.21.

    Strong quarter on higher rent and AEIs. CT reported strong 2Q13 results, mainly attributed to higher rental rates achieved from the portfolio’s new and renewed leases, and contributions from the well-executed asset enhancement initiatives (AEIs) at JCube, Bugis Junction and The Atrium@Orchard. As of 30 June 2013, the occupancy rates at these malls were 99.9%, 99.5% and 98.5% respectively.

    曾淵滄專欄 23.07.13:潤電案有渾水手影

    曾淵滄專欄:潤電案有渾水手影
    未去到青海前,一直以為青海是很荒蕪的地方,但親身到訪,真是大開眼界。整個青海省人口只有500萬,比香港還少,但在夏季,特別是目前油菜花開季節,遊客眾多,青海湖畔人山人海。許多農民種油菜花已不是為榨油,而是收門票讓旅客拍照,攝影發燒友很多,許多旅客一身背着兩三個相機。

    金融海嘯後中國已推出過四萬億谷基建,但此次到青海一遊,我深深地感覺到青海的基建仍很落後。從青海省會西寧前往青海湖,公路上塞車情況有如大城市,青海湖早該建一個機場,或多開通兩三條高速公路,青海湖畔也應有五星級酒店及提供更多的高檔消費,須知13億中國人中,富起來的已經不少了。

    Suntec REIT: Earnings Weaken But DPU Stays Stable (OSK)

    SUN: Earnings Weaken But DPU Stays Stable
    (BUY, SGD1.53, TP: SGD1.78)
    Suntec REIT (SUN)’s 2Q13 revenue and distributable income came in weaker at SGD46.9m (-33.9% y-o-y) and SGD50.9m (-4.0% y-o-y) respectively while DPU for the quarter was a lower 2.25 cents (-4.7% yo-y). All said, we still like SUN In view of the recent reopening of Phase 1 AEI at Suntec City, and maintain our BUY call, with an unchanged DDM-based (COE: 9.6%; TGR:2.0%) TP of SGD1.78 Revenue lower than expected but DPU in line. Owing to the closure of c. 67% of Phases 1 and 2 of Suntec City mall for an asset enhancement initiative (AEI), 2Q13 revenue fell c. 24% short of consensus’ and our forecasts. However, the quarter’s DPU remained largely in line with our estimate, with a deviation of -0.5%, largely attributed to the topping up of 0.35 cents with proceeds from the divestment of Chijmes, a downtown entertainment and dining complex.

    China Banking : Latest rate liberalisation step is good news (DBSV)

    China Banking Sector.
    Latest rate liberalisation step is good news

    Delay in deposit rate liberalisation should lead to positive earnings revisions
    NIM impact since June 2012’s rate liberalisation step has also been much less than feared
    We look for Chinese banking shares to rebound in 2H13; top picks are ABC (1288.HK) and CCB (939.HK)

    New step in rate liberalisation. PBOC took another step in liberalizing China’s interest rates. Latest moves include:
     i) Removing the lending rate floors for Rmb loans, which were previously set at 30% below benchmark lending rates. The exception is mortgages, which are still subject to a mortgage rate floor.
    ii) Removing maximum lending rate caps for rural cooperatives.

    Monday, July 22, 2013

    港股停滞不前

    港股停滞不前
    文: 黄玮杰 2013年07月22日 展望
    踏入7月,美股持续创新高,但港股却停滞不前,恆生指数维持在21,200点与21,500点之间的窄幅内上落。在缺乏利好因素下,市况难以进一步上扬。

    中国上半年经济增长为7.6%,其中第一季增长为7.7%,第二季增长率放慢至7.5%,基本上是符合预期。上半年资本形成总额对GDP的贡献率是53.9%,拉动GDP增长4.1个百分点;最终消费的贡献是45.2%,拉动GDP增长3.4个百分点;货物和服务净出口的贡献率是0.9%,拉动GDP上涨0.1个百分点。数据反映了上半年中国经济增长仍然是靠内需拉动.由于出口形势不乐观,中国商务部正会同国务院有关部门研究采取支持措施,预料有关措施快将出台。

    航空業激戰‧誰是大贏家?

    航空業激戰‧誰是大贏家?
    Created 07/21/2013 - 19:00
    國內航空業者即將宣佈第二季業績,倍受市場關注,它也是關鍵性的季度,除了全球航空業競爭加劇,而國內航空業新秀——馬印航空今年3月起加入戰圍,它對整體國內航空業的初步影響將有答案。

    全球經濟前景仍然陰暗不明,以及最大成本——燃油價格的起落動盪等兩大催化因素,都將會為本地航空業帶來衝擊。本地航空業今年第二季表現,將首次呈現馬印航空對其他航空業者,甚至整體行業影響程度。它如何改變航空業的面貌,將會露出一些端倪。

    一股作气:CB工业有潜力派高息

    一股作气:CB工业有潜力派高息
    Created 07/22/2013 - 13:15
    近期内合约源源不绝的CB工业产品(CBIP,7076,主板工业产品股),已提高该集团在未来两年盈利。

    同时,市场也对该集团在中长期方面的前景感到乐观,并在诱人的估值之下,备受看好是种植领域的代表股项之一。

    拥有良好派息记录的CB工业产品,且资产负债表强稳,该集团具有潜能派发丰厚股息的可能性。

    Suntec REIT : Suntec City AEI on track (CIMB)

    Suntec REIT
    Current S$1.53
    Target S$1.68
    Suntec City AEI on track

     Phase 1 of AEI at Suntec City achieved an average passing rent of S$13.09psf, well on track to meet SUN’s 10.1% ROI target. While 2Q13 was the worst quarter yet, contributions from Phase 1 are expected to flow through in 2H13 and will likely result in a lower DPU top-up. 2Q13 DPU was in line with expectations at 24% of our and consensus full-year estimates (1H13 at 48%). We trim our FY13-15 DPUs by up to 2% on the timing of rental contributions from AEIs. Maintain Outperform and DDM-based target price (discount rate of 8.3%). We see valuation at 0.75x P/BV as attractive vs. peers, with rerating catalysts from the positive execution of Suntec City’s AEI.

    CapitaMall Trust : A more moderate rents outlook (CIMB)

    CapitaMall Trust
    Current S$2.02
    Tgt. S$2.06
    A more moderate rents outlook

     CMT registered a 12.2% yoy NPI growth in 2Q13, driven by AEIs and a 6.4% portfolio rental reversion. While AEIs and mall completions will continue to drive its NPIs going forward, the marginal increase in asset values on a 15-25bps decline in cap rates seen in 2Q13 points to a more moderate rental outlook, in our view. 2Q13 DPU was in line at 24% of our and consensus full-year estimates. 1H13 DPU formed 48% of our full year. We keep our estimates and maintain our DDM-based target price (7.2% discount rate). Maintain Neutral on valuations with the stock at a compressed FY14 yield of 5.3% and P/BV of 1.2x. Positive surprises from AEIs and accretive acquisitions form the rerating catalysts.

    Hunza Properties likely to hit RM2.30-RM2.50 levels

    Hunza Properties likely to hit RM2.30-RM2.50 levels

    2013/07/22

    Hunza Properties Bhd staged a technical rebound last week. Its daily price trend rebounded to close at RM2.22 on Friday.

    Following are the readings of some of its technical indicators:

    Moving Averages: Hunza's daily price trend stayed above its 10-, 20-, 30-, 50-, 100- and 200-day moving averages last Friday.

    Bursa-listed China firms losing lustre?

    Bursa-listed China firms losing lustre?
    By Lidiana Rosli
    bt@mediaprima.com.my
    2013/07/22

    KUALA LUMPUR: China-based companies that are listed on Bursa Malaysia are having a tough time attracting investors and retaining their stock prices after being listed.

    Almost all of the nine China-based companies, namely XingQuan International Sport Holdings, China Automobile Parts Holdings,HB Global Ltd, China Stationery Ltd, XiDeLang Holdings, K-Star Sports Ltd, China Ouhua Winery Ltd, Maxwell International Holdings and Multi Sports Holdings, are trading below their initial public offering (IPO) price as at July 19’s market close.

    麥嘉華(Marc Faber)筆記22.07.13:提防87股災悲劇重演

    日本政府債券孳息從近期低點跳升一倍,掀開了環球債券孳息過去兩月飛升之旅的序幕。近幾年來,股市之所以能夠順風順水,低息環境功不可沒,如今長息彈升,是否意味着股市將風光不再?

    亞洲經濟高增長難再
    其實,美國債券孳息早於一年前已開始向上,可是在美國經濟依然低迷的情況下,我不排除債息會再次回落,惟超低息的日子恐怕已一去不復返,原因是美國聯邦儲備局已「控制不了」債券市場。

    恐慌時買貨 羅傑斯自爆低撈黃金

    【本報訊】商品大王羅傑斯看好黃金已是公開的秘密,昨日他更在閃電訪港旅程中向投資者派錦囊。羅傑斯昨稱,短期內金價有機會再向下尋底,但長遠依然看好金價。羅傑斯更透露,早前在約每盎斯1,200美元價位增持黃金,主因他相信十年內金價會再破頂。

    記者:董曉沂 鄧偉忠

    羅傑斯昨出席民生金幣新舖開幕禮時表示,是次逗留將僅僅多於24小時,但卻毫不吝嗇大派投資錦囊。他表示,現時環球貨幣市場出現不少異動,影響了金價走勢,更直指短時間內金價有可能會再向下,惟他強調,下跌空間相當有限,當金價跌至1,100美元時將會繼續增持

    K‐Green Trust : No growth catalysts in sight (AM)

    K‐Green Trust
    LAST CLOSE: S$1.05
    FAIR VALUE: S$0.780
    No growth catalysts in sight

    Nothing’s changed, KGT’s investment thesis remains unexciting. KGT’s Q213 results were slightly below our expectations largely on lower operation and maintenance income. Q212 net profit came in at S$3.9mil, which was 7.4% lower than our forecast. Of greater concern to us, however, is KGT’s continued decline in its NAV and low true cash flow yield.

    Thai Beverage : Dampened spirits (UBS)

    Thai Beverage
    12m price target S$0.51/US$0.40
    Price S$0.61/US$0.48
    Dampened spirits

    􀂄Thailand’s leading beverage company; initiate coverage with a Sell rating
    Thai Beverage (ThaiBev) is Thailand’s leading beverage company and one of the largest in Asia with c78%/32% of the Thai spirits/beer market in 2012E. To mitigate risk of overreliance on the Thai alcohol segment, it has diversified by acquiring Oishi Group, Sermsuk and Fraser and Neave (F&N). We initiate with a Sell, as we think valuations are rich and that there are specific risks ahead.

    Triyards : Another yard joins the party (NRA)

    Triyards Holdings Ltd
    Current Price S$0.71
    Fair Value S$0.97
    Another yard joins the party

     Initiate coverage with an Overweight recommendation and a $0.97 fair value, based on 7x PER FY14 (30% discount to its peers in the marine and offshore industry to account for its smaller size). Despite its smaller size compared to heavyweights Keppel and Sembcorp Marine, we believe Triyards' specialization and experience in building Self Elevating Units (SEUs or more commonly known as liftboats in North America. Similar to smaller jack-up rigs but are self-propelled) will put the company in a good position to take advantage as these types of vessels gain popularity in regions such as Asia and Africa.

    M1 2Q13: Android Phones Hit Earnings But Attractive Dividends (UOBKH)

    M1 (M1 SP)
    Share Price S$3.12
    Target Price S$3.58
    2Q13: Android Phones Hit Earnings But Attractive Dividends

    M1 achieved strong growth in its mobile and fibre broadband businesses. Unfortunately, bottom line was affected by higher handset costs due to a shift towards Android-based smartphones. M1 remains our preferred pick for the telco sector due to its attractive valuation and sustainable dividend policy. Maintain BUY but lower target price to S$3.58.

    Results
    • M1 reported net profit of S$39.2m for 2Q13 (+11.2% yoy), slightly below our expectations.

    曾淵滄專欄 22.07.13:利率市場化好處多

    滬綜指再度跌破2000點,A股仍在低位徘徊,港股則再一次擺脫A股的下跌壓力,上周五恒指倒升,如果美股能繼續創新高,港股應該有力慢慢地回升,慢慢地擺股A股的拖累。

    人民銀行宣佈,7月20日開始,中國金融機構的貸款利率全面放開,自由了。數個月前,市場不斷地傳出中央領導人有關利率市場化的談話,這一次,也真是大刀闊斧,說變就變,先從貸款利率市場化,自由化開始變,相信不必太久,存款利率也可以放開。市場化、自由化,由各銀行自行訂立,大銀行低一些,小銀行高一些,如此,小銀行才有條件與大銀行競爭。

    過去,銀行貸款利率由國家定,結果,求貸款企業太多,銀行很自然只貸款給國營大企業,只貸款給有關係的人物與國企,於是出現了倒賣貸款情況,有關係的人從銀行取得低息貸款,轉手借貸給別人。

    CapitaRetail China Trust: Improved debt profile in 2Q13 (OCBC)

    CapitaRetail China Trust:
    Fair value S$1.58
    add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.091
    versus: Current price S$1.485

    Improved debt profile in 2Q13
    • Distributable income climbs 7.5% YoY
    • Healthy debt profile
    • Maintain BUY

    CRCT’s 2Q13 results were in line with ours and the street’s expectations. Net property income rose by 6.0% YoY to S$26.4m and income available for distribution was 7.5% higher at S$17.9m. NPI would have grown 9.5% YoY excluding CapitaMall Minzhongleyuan, which is undergoing AEI.

    Keppel T&T : Strong data centre delivery (CIMB)

    Keppel T&T
    Current S$1.47
    Target S$1.64
    Strong data centre delivery

     KPTT delivered a strong set of results in 2Q13, with earnings driven by higher occupancy in its data centres. Its subsidiary acquired a second port in Foshan, China, and we believe this new acquisition and the current logistics projects in China will help to build its core earnings.

    2Q net profit of S$16.4m was above expectations due to strong data centres contribution. 1H earnings formed 53% of our full-year estimate. We raise FY13-15 EPS by 1-3% for better-than-expected data centre revenues. We maintain our Outperform call with a higher SOP-based target price of S$1.64. Catalysts could come from an increase in data centre occupancy and the opening of two logistics parks in China in FY14-15.

    Sunday, July 21, 2013

    陸經濟是否停滯不前了?

    20130720文茜的世界週報之1─陸經濟是否停滯不前了?


    曾淵滄教路 17.07.13 加息遙遙無期 高息股仍有吸引力

    加息遙遙無期 高息股仍有吸引力
    上星期,美國道瓊斯指數又再創出收市新高的歷史紀錄,五月二十二日,美國聯邦儲備局議息會議後,第一次發出退市的言論,指美國經濟正在復甦,聯邦儲備局可能會減少買債,這番言論被市場視為退市的訊息,為將來退市,減買國債,停買國債,加息的行動吹風,結果,帶來的是全球的不大不小的股災。在短短的一個月,香港恒生指數下跌約4,000點,跌幅驚人。當然,港股下跌不單是受美國退市陰影的影響,中國A股不斷下跌,人民銀行不斷收緊銀根也是另一個重要的原因。

    Understanding Ben S Bernanke



    KrisEnergy eyes growth through SGX listing



    Chong Kee Hiong, CEO, OUE Hospitality Trust


    OUE's hospitality trust IPO priced at bottom of range


    CRCT’s 1H13 Financial Results Come In Strong; New Beijing Mall Acquisitio

    19 JULY 2013
    CRCT’s 1H13 Financial Results Come In Strong; New Beijing Mall Acquisition
    By Nicholas Tan and Shane Goh

    Following the recent sell-off in S-REITs, CapitaRetail China Trust (CRCT) has declined from its peak of $1.875 in February 2013 to $1.32 at its lowest before rebounding to close at $1.485 on 18 July 2013. Bolstered by positive performance for 1H13 and a recent announcement of a potential addition to its portfolio, can we expect further price upside from CRCT?

    CapitaRetail China Trust (CRCT), the first and only pure play China shopping mall Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) in Singapore, released its six months result for 2013 on 18 July 2013. This comes fresh after its recent proposed acquisition of Grand Canyon Mall, in South Beijing, to add to its growing $1.6 billion asset portfolio, of which, the bulk is located in the Chinese capital city.

    CapitaCommercial Trust : One George Street- yield income support expires (DBSV)

    CapitaCommercial Trust
    HOLD S$1.48
    STI : 3,208.33
    Price Target : 12-Month S$ 1.62 (Prev S$ 1.72)
    One George Street- yield income support expires

    • 2Q13 results in line
    • Yield income support for One George Street has expired
    • New AEI works at Capital Tower announced
    • Maintain HOLD, TP revised lower to S$1.62

    Highlights
    Stable performance. CCT announced 2Q13 gross revenue of S$97.5m (+1.8% y-o-y), NPI of c.S$75m (-0.5%) and distributable income of S$59.6m (+1.9%). This translates to a
    quarterly DPU of 2.07Scts and 1H DPU of 4.01scts (+1.3% y-o-y).

    Giordano International : Growth outside China (CIMB)

    Giordano International
    Current HK$7.21
    Target HK$9.00
    Growth outside China

     Giordano’s operating performance should have been resilient in 2Q13 despite China’s overall market weakness due to bad weather, the avian flu and a sluggish economy. We look beyond China to2014, when its restructuring should be completed.

    Thanks to contributions from its newly-acquired Middle-East market, we expect core net profit to grow 15% yoy to HK$354min 1H13on7% topline growth. Maintain Outperform and target price, based on15x CY14 P/E, its 10-year average. Catalysts are expected from improving China operations and sustainable margin expansion.

    Telecommunications companies: Dividends, defensive businesses and growth opportunities lure investors back to telcos

    Telecommunications companies: Dividends, defensive businesses and growth opportunities lure investors back to telcos

    Written by Joan Ng  
    Monday, 15 July 2013 20:37
    After the recent market rout that sent investors running from yield plays, it seems that telecommunications stocks are back in favour. In a recent report, Nomura notes that Asian telcos gained 3% in June and 28 out of the 34 telcos under its coverage outperformed their local index benchmarks. In fact, telecoms and healthcare were the only sectors that ended last month in positive territory. And, year-to-date, telco stocks have performed the second best, with an 11% gain.

    Real estate investment trusts: Opportunity abounds in battered sector

    Real estate investment trusts: Opportunity abounds in battered sector
    Written by Goola Warden  
    Monday, 15 July 2013 20:28
    John Doyle, chief investment officer of UOB Asset Management (UOBAM), figures he launched the United Asia Pacific Real Estate Income Fund at the right moment.

    The new fund, which is benchmarked against the S&P Asia Pacific REIT Index, was launched on June 17, just as financial markets across the globe were reacting to growing concerns that the US Federal Reserve would soon begin to “taper” its massive bond buying programme. That sent long-term bond yields significantly higher. In Singapore, yields on the 10-year Singapore Government Securities (SGS) had doubled in six weeks to 2.6%.

    【大市展望】下半年投資機遇 滙豐與貝萊德齊講



    Fund managers see long-term value in H-shares


    Warren E. Buffett(沃伦•巴菲特)
    Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful
    别人贪婪时我恐惧, 别人恐惧时我贪婪
    投资只需学好两门课: 一,是如何给企业估值,二,是如何看待股市波动
    吉姆·罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)
    “错过时机”胜于“搞错对象”:不会全军覆没!”
    做自己熟悉的事,等到发现大好机会才投钱下去

    乔治·索罗斯(George Soros)

    “犯错误并没有什么好羞耻的,只有知错不改才是耻辱。”

    如果操作过量,即使对市场判断正确,仍会一败涂地。

    李驰(中国巴菲特)
    高估期间, 卖对, 不卖也对, 买是错的。
    低估期间, 买对, 不买也是对, 卖是错的。

    Tan Teng Boo


    There’s no such thing as defensive stocks.Every stock can be defensive depending on what price you pay for it and what value you get,
    冷眼(冯时能)投资概念
    “买股票就是买公司的股份,买股份就是与陌生人合股做生意”。
    合股做生意,则公司股份的业绩高于一切,而股票的价值决定于盈利。
    价值是本,价格是末,故公司比股市重要百倍。
    曹仁超-香港股神/港股明灯
    1.有智慧,不如趁势
    2.止损不止盈
    成功者所以成功,是因为不怕失败!失败者所以失败,是失败后不再尝试!
    曾淵滄-散户明灯
    每逢灾难就是机会,而是在灾难发生时贱价买股票,然后放在一边,耐性地等灾难结束
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