Saturday, July 20, 2013

UBS makes contrarian call on ThaiBev

WITH GROWING REGIONAL consumer demand as the backdrop, Thai Beverage, the leading maker of drinks from white spirits to green tea, has been rated favourably by analysts for its strong base and growth potential. Last year, the company is estimated to have cornered more than three quarters of the spirit and one third of the beer sales respectively in its home market.

ThaiBev’s successful bid for control of Singapore-based drinks and property company Fraser & Neave with the help of TCC Assets, the investment holding company owned by ThaiBev chairman Charoen Sirivadhanabhakdi, also made the company a larger and stronger regional player in the F&B field.

CRCT 1H13业绩亮丽; 在北京购入新商场

CRCT 1H13业绩亮丽; 在北京购入新商场
文: 陈挚文 (译:麦美莹) 2013年07月19日 企业摘要
随着新加坡的房地产投资信托(REIT)最近受到抛售,嘉茂中国商用产业信托(CapitaRetail China Trust,以下简称CRCT)的股价从2013年2月的1.875元高峰跌至1.32元谷底,之后才出现回弹,在2013年7月18日,以1.485元收盘。CRCT的1H13业绩亮丽,再加上它最近宣布其组合将添加新成员,那么,CRCT的股价将会进一步升高吗?

CRCT是新加坡首个及唯一一个在新加坡上市的纯中国零售商场REIT ,它在7月18日公布了2013年上半年的业绩。刚在不久前,CRCT宣布收购了在北京南面的首地大峡谷购物中心(Grand Canyon Mall),为其不断增长的16亿元资产组合再添一员,其组合里的资产大部份是位于中国的首都内。

First Resources: A Short Term Opportunity To Short?

19 JULY 2013
First Resources: A Short Term Opportunity To Short?
By Robin Han

First Resources (FirstRes) was in a strong downtrend for the past two months but it managed to rebound recently. However, from the weekly chart, we can see that the share is still in a clear downtrend.

Besides, we can see that the resistant trendline is quite significant. In addition, after a rebound from 1.65 to 1.735 over the past three days, the stock is currently quite overbought and has a short term risk now.

A stock usually does not change from downtrend to uptrend suddenly. One may consider shorting on strength during rebound as we can expect the stock to have a pull back thereafter. FirstRes released its quarterly report on 14 May, therefore it is not likely to release another financial report before August that would bring sudden uncertainty to the technical chart pattern.

曾渊沧:中国股市不济 政府退市为主因

最近,中国经济放缓成了传媒的焦点。许多评论页将股市的下跌与中国经济放缓连在一起。中国经济放缓的原因很多,其中最重要的原因是中国政府正在进行退市行动。在中国,退市行动称为宏观调控,这是20年前朱镕基发明的名词。

2008年国际金融海啸,源起于美国,那一年,全球经济受到很大的打击,人人感到前途茫茫,就在人人信心全失的时候,当时的中国总理温家宝提出了4万亿基建,这是中国式的量化宽松,2009年,美国也开始了量化宽松的行动。美国的量化宽松政策持续至今日仍未改变。今年5月22日,美国联邦储备局才第一次放风,说会考虑退市,但是,对中国而言,退市是早在2009年年底就开始了,股市开始下跌,之后经济增长率向下滑,为什么?因为人民银行早已向市场抽紧银根、加利率,加银行存款准备金比率,这就是名符其实的退市行动,为什么中国这么早退市?原因是中国的经济在4万亿的推动之下,很快就恢复快速增长。逐渐地,中国政府开始发现4万亿带来的负作用,那是通胀与房地产泡沫,也因此,中国既是全世界最早搞量化宽松,也是经济最早复苏者,更是最早退市者。

淡市? 旺市? 房势抢先看

淡市? 旺市? 房势抢先看
Created 07/19/2013 - 14:19
第13届全国大选落幕后,大马房地产市场出现了变化,尤其是投资取向以及政府对打房的新想法。

经历了两年余的房价飙涨及大选前后稍歇微喘后,我国房地产市场的前景,究竟是再一次蓄势待发或将面临“淡市”,众说纷云,投资者及购产自居者捉摸不着。

《南洋商报》配合即将在9月举行的南洋产业展,邀请了4位发展商出席圆桌会议,尽情详谈眼下的房地产市况。

Muhibbah Engineering : Getting its mojo back! (CIMB)

Muhibbah Engineering
Current RM2.49
Target RM3.18
Getting its mojo back!

 As highlighted in our post-roadshow note, Muhibbah offers the most attractive turnaround prospect among the smaller-cap contractors. Prospects are being spurred by oil & gas infrastructure, marine/port-related work and a fabrication licence from Petronas.

We raise our RNAV to capture the surge in Favelle Favco's market cap and a lower WACC of 7% (from 8%) for its airport concessions. We further cut our RNAV discount from 40% to 30% to reflect investors’ rising appetite for smaller caps, its oil & gas exposure and its order-book recovery, which raises our target price. Maintain Outperform. Catalysts are job wins in 2H13 and new recurring-income assets.

Hua Yang Berhad - Liquidity to improve via 1:3 bonus

Hua Yang Berhad -
Price Target:3.52
Last Price:3.10
Liquidity to improve via 1:3 bonus

Period     1Q14

Actual vs. Expectations   1Q14 net profit of RM12.3m is seen as broadly in line with expectations, although it only makes up 14% of street and our FY14E earnings estimates. 1Qs are typically weak seasons while billings from new launches back in 4Q13 are still at initial construction stages, hence yet to see meaningful revenue recognition. The group rake in sales of RM89.1m (+6% YoY) in 1Q14 from its on-going projects.

中美無新政 追逐國策股 豐:中資股估值低 中線具吸引

中美無新政 追逐國策股 豐:中資股估值低 中線具吸引
http://paper.wenweipo.com   [2013-07-19]

香港文匯報訊(記者 陳遠威)美國聯邦儲備局主席伯南克再度出口術為退市憂慮降溫,內地錢荒事件已平息,經濟數據也已公布,但國務院經濟會議無新政策,港股和內地A股繼續牛皮,各地指數全線見紅。豐及貝萊德昨日對美國逐步退市抽走區內資金有不同看法,但都認為,內地經濟增長放緩及金融系統結構問題,或進一步令投資氣氛惡化。貝萊德建議避開內銀股,看好有國策支持的科網新能源股。

 豐環球資產管理宏觀及投資策略環球主管Philip Poole昨表示,中國內地推行經濟結構性改革引致上海同業拆息(Shibor)抽升,雖暫回穩,但料年內錢荒現象持續,並令經濟增長受壓,預期內地股市遭受拖累,未來數月將會下行。由於企業估值低企,作為中線投資具吸引力。

內銀貸息撤限制

內銀貸息撤限制

【本報訊】人民銀行宣佈今日起,取消內地銀行貸款基準利率最多七折下限政策,變相全面開放金融機構貸款利率管制,向利率市場化邁向一步。以目前一年期貸款利率6厘為例,過往銀行最多可向優質及穩陣客戶提供低至4.2厘優惠利率,惟今起可以4.2厘以下搶優質貸款,政策會帶動內地銀行間的競爭,銀行淨息差將受壓,當中大銀行受到的負面影響較小。
記者:劉美儀

人行為貫徹嚴控房地產炒賣,個人住房貸款利率仍設下限。對全方位競爭風險最大的存款利率上浮(最多為基準利率1.1倍),則未有放開,市場預期基於銀根緊張及波動性,年內全開的機會不大。

Parkson Holdings - Muted outlook in the near term

Parkson Holdings -
Price Target:4.43
Last Price:3.78
Muted outlook in the near term

- We reaffirm our HOLD recommendation on Parkson Holdings (PHB), with an unchanged fair value of RM4.43/share, based on a sum-of-parts valuation.

- We met up with Parkson Retail Asia’s (PRA) management recently and continue to view muted near-term earnings, underpinned by cautious sentiment in Malaysia, post general election and weakness in Vietnam’s economy.

Friday, July 19, 2013

双威 狮城工程贡献强

双威 狮城工程贡献强
Created 07/19/2013 - 11:52
【目标价:3.76令吉】

最新进展:

双威(SUNWAY,5211,主板产业股)在新加坡的Sunway's Arc和Sea Esta的发展计划,已全数售出。

另外,临近诺维娜捷运站(Novena)和Square2Mall购物广场的Novena发展计划,零售产业将在9月份推出,而医院也将随后推出。

受停电冲击 齐力炼铝厂料关3个月

受停电冲击 齐力炼铝厂料关3个月
Created 07/19/2013 - 09:35
(吉隆坡18日讯)齐力(PMETAL,8869,主板工业产品股)位于砂拉越木胶(Mukah)的炼铝厂于上月杪经历停电6小时事件后,可能关闭3至6个月,进行抢修工作。

昨天,该公司高层向路透社表示:“我们正在评估这起事件所带来的影响。我们在沙马拉祖(Samalaju)的另外1间厂房正在运作,可以满足客户的订单。”

木胶炼铝厂的按年产能为12万吨,沙马拉祖厂房的按年产能则是32万吨。

砂拉越于6月27日爆发大停电,造成熔炉温度骤降而发生凝固情况,齐力无法恢复铝生产工作,必须关厂整修,至今仍无法估计损失程度与金额。

Agriculture Bank of China : Strong leader in county area (DBSV)

Agriculture Bank of China
BUY HK$3.14
HSI : 21,303
Price Target : 12 month HK$ 4.59
Strong leader in county area

Well established rural network advantage should be hard to catch up and will continue to aid NIM
Concerns on asset quality should not be excessive given high provision coverage
Top pick in the sector for faster earning growth, better liquidity and high yield

Clear advantage in county area. We recently attended ABC’s reverse road show in SongMing county, Yunnan, which affirmed our positive view on ABC’s strength in rural areas. Its vast coverage of county areas should provide relatively low cost deposits while generating higher loan yield to support NIM. ABC’s strength in county areas will likely remain in the near term despite increasing competition.

Fortune REIT : Growth on track (DBSV)

Fortune REIT
BUY HK$7.14
HSI : 21,303
Price Target : 12-month HK$8.00
Growth on track

􀂃1H13 results were largely in line with expectations
􀂃Ongoing asset enhancement initiatives to propel growth
􀂃BUY with HK$8.00 TP

Encouraging growth led by healthy rental reversion and contributions from new malls. 1H13 distribution income grew 14% to HK$307m, led by higher rental revenue, partly offset by an increase in interest expenses. Thanks to positive rental reversion of 18.2% and full-period contribution from Belvedere Square and Provident Square acquired in Feb 12, total revenue was 13% higher at HK$609m. Completed AEI projects such as

投资房地产投资信托比投资房地产较佳的4个原因

投资房地产投资信托比投资房地产较佳的4个原因
(译:麦美莹) 2013年07月19日 展望
文:REITSWeek

在苏格兰出生的美国企业家及慈善家安德鲁•卡内基(Andrew Carnegie)曾经说过,90%的富翁是因为拥有房地产而致富。他的看法在18世纪可能派不上用场,但其至理名言一直至今也很受用,从房地产成为投资类别的一种便可见一斑。

卡内基的建议本身没有什么不对,尽管房地产市场近年来呈现混乱的景象。作为一种资产类别,房地产投资除了有望从资产升值受惠外,它也可以带来稳定的收入来源。昔日,只有富人才有能力投资房地产,但今天,准投资者可以通过REIT来参与房地产投资。

CapitaRetail China Trust : Silver lining in the China gloom (DBSV)

CapitaRetail China Trust :
BUY S$1.485 STI : 3,218.20
(Upgrade from HOLD)
Price Target : 12-month S$ 1.75 (Prev S$ 1.78)

Silver lining in the China gloom
• 2Q13 results in line
• MZLY to be closed for AEI works until 2Q14, CRCT to acquire new Beijing mall for Rmb1.8bn
• Upgrade to BUY, TP S$1.75

Good results amid China gloom. CRCT announced a strong set of 2Q13 results, recording revenue of S$40m (+5% y-o-y), NPI of c.S$26m (+6% y-o-y) and distributable income of S$18m (+8% y-oy). DPU fell 1.2% to 2.38Scts however, due to the enlarged share base from last year’s private placement. 1H13 DPU totals 4.69Scts.

Mapletree Logistics Trust 1QFY14: Stable Performer (UOBKH)

Mapletree Logistics Trust
Share Price S$1.10
Target Price S$1.29
1QFY14: Stable Performer

Results in line with expectations as the impact of yen depreciation on revenue and NPI was fully hedged, while borrowing costs fell 20% qoq due to lower average interest rates (down 50bp qoq). In 1QFY14, MLT acquired a S$32m property in Korea and we anticipate more acquisitions in the year ahead as MLT has over S$250m headroom. Maintain BUY with unchanged target price of S$1.29 based on DDM (RR: 6.9%, terminal: 1.5%).

Uni-Asia Holdings : A better FY13 (UOBKH)

Uni-Asia Holdings
Share Price S$0.205
A better FY13
Uni-Asia Holdings
Share Price S$0.205
A better FY13

Valuation
• Uni-Asia Holdings (Uni) is trading at 10.8x FY13F PE vs peers’ average of 10.4x.

Investment Highlights
• A shipping sector recovery - slowly but surely. The shipping sector has been in a slump since 2009 due to a supply glut. While outlook for the shipping industry remains mixed as the supply overhang continues, it is worth noting that all of Uni’s vessels are Handysize bulkers (< 40,000dwt). According to Pacific Basin, there was zero net fleet growth among global Handysize bulkers in 1Q13 as new supply was fully offset by those that were scrapped. With current global orderbook for Handysize bulkers at 17% of existing fleet vs 20% for existing Handysize bulkers that are over 25 years old (which may be scrapped soon) as at 1 Apr 13, the supply-demand situation for the Handysize bulkers seems to be looking a bit brighter. In a shipping sector recovery, we believe Handysize bulkers will be the first to pick up.

More investments in Gurney Paragon Mall by year-end

More investments in Gurney Paragon Mall by year-end
Marina Emmanuel
marinae@mediaprima.com.my
2013/07/19

LANDMARK: Retailers expected to pump in RM231m capital PENANG'S newest shopping attraction Gurney Paragon Mall is expected to receive capital investments of RM231 million from retailers between now and year-end.

Its developer Hunza Properties Bhd has promised that the mall, which is set to open on Tuesday, will serve as a new destination and landmark for Penang's retail and tourism sectors.

M1 2Q13A results: Some early benefits from tiered-data plans (CS)

M1 Limited
Maintain OUTPERFORM
Price (16 Jul 13, S$) 3.12
TP (prev. TP S$) 3.60 (3.60)
2Q13A results: Some early benefits from tiered-data plans, usage on the rise


● M1 reported in-line 2Q13 results. Service revenue grew 8.9% YoY, driven by 7.9% YoY growth in mobile service revenue and 35.4% YoY growth in fixed network revenue. This fed through to YoY growth of 6.2% and 11.4% in EBITDA and net profit, respectively, in 2Q13.

Singapore Mid-cap Highlight: Courts Asia (UOBKH)

Singapore
Mid-cap Highlight: Courts Asia

CAL remains an attractive proxy for consumerism in Singapore and Malaysia. Its plan to venture into Indonesia in 2014 is on track. We see the recent correction as an opportunity to accumulate. BUY with a target price of S$1.20.

What’s New
• Key takeaways from management meeting. We met with the management of Courts Asia (CAL) recently. This report highlights the key takeaways.

Singapore Discovery Series: Yeo Hiap Seng (CS)

Singapore Discovery Series: Yeo Hiap Seng
NOT RATED
Property development mostly done; back to F&B

● We met with YHS’ management for an update on the company. YHS operates in two segments: F&B and property development, and has c.S$400 mn in cash + investments (with little debt). It has c.S$90 mn (fair value) of investment properties in Hong Kong/ Malaysia.

● Property income (S$54 mn in 2012) was historically driven by YHS’ 'monetizing' land bank in Singapore. Management said that property business is the realm of its principal shareholder and that the company may not re-invest in the space. The company did not say that it would develop any of its Malaysian holdings near term.

曾淵滄專欄19.07.13:網龍賣產絕對正確

偷得浮生數日閒,今日,我又出發旅遊了,地點是青海,據說青海湖是攝影龍友的熱門地點,應該去看看,反正我是長期投資者,市場的短期波動,可以不聞不問。

7月16日,炒得熱烘烘的網龍(777)股價突然暴跌21%。當天網龍公佈了一個好消息,即百度以19億美元的總代價收購網龍持有的91無綫網絡的全部股權,網龍持有91無綫57.41%,算起來可以分到85億港元,當日網龍暴跌後市值97億元,換言之,網龍在扣除91無綫之後的剩餘業務與資產只值12億元。

Rotary Engineering : Possible turnaround in 2013 (UOBKH)

Rotary Engineering
Share Price S$0.540
Possible turnaround in 2013

Investment Highlights
• Rotary provides fully integrated engineering design, procurement, construction and maintenance (EPCM) services to the oil and gas (O&G), petroleum, petrochemical and pharmaceutical industries.

• The group has projects in Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, India, China, Australia, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Some of the major projects that Rotary has undertaken include the Universal Terminal in Singapore and SATORP JERP package 6 in Saudi Arabia.

CapitaRetail China Trust announced 2Q13 earnings of S$17.9 million (Limtan)

CapitaRetail China Trust announced 2Q13 earnings of S$17.9 million, up 7.5% y-o-y from S$16.6 million in 2Q12. This is mainly attributable to higher revenue growth at CapitaMall Xizhimen, positive rental reversion (+17.3%), better tenant sales (+9.5% y-oy), as well as higher revenue growth at other multitenanted
malls. But this was partially offset by the lower revenue contributions at CapitaMall Minzhongleyuan which was undergoing asset enhancement initiatives (AEIs).

 Dividend per unit (DPU) for 2Q13 fell slightly by 1.2% to 2.38 cents per unit, from 2.41 cents per unit. The slight decrease in DPU was mainly due to dilution from the issuance of 57 million new units through a private placement in October 2012. Nevertheless, consensus FY14 dividend yield currently stands at a healthy 6.8%.

Thursday, July 18, 2013

沿海工程 先建后售提高赚幅

沿海工程 先建后售提高赚幅
Created 07/18/2013 - 11:16
目标价:3.87令吉

最新进展

沿海工程(Coastal,5071,主板工业产品股)通过收购第一项升降式钻油平台(jack uprig),把商业模式从目前的先建后售,转向资产拥有权。

行家建议

在这项转变下,沿海工程将取得更持续性的净利,赚幅也将扩大,因升降式钻油平台的净利赚幅为25%至30%。

据知,目前东南亚有45个钻油平台合约,将会从2013年中至2015年到期,其中包括17个合约是在大马。因此,我们料公司能够取得一些合约。

CB 工业产品 新合约鼓舞

CB 工业产品 新合约鼓舞
Created 07/18/2013 - 11:13
目标价:3.42令吉

最新进展

CB工业产品(CBIP,7076,主板工业产品股)与哥伦比亚的Industrial Aceitera De Casanare Sucursal签署一份总值342万7600美元(或相等于1065万9836令吉)的供应协议,在哥伦比亚兴建持续消毒棕油厂。

行家建议

我们对这项消息感到正面,但并不意外,因为这符合我们认为CB工业产品持续取得更多合约,及棕油厂具强劲需求前景的看法。

立通国际 2年财测上修

立通国际 2年财测上修
Created 07/16/2013 - 11:29
【目标价:77仙】

最新进展:

立通国际(Redtone,0032,创业板)表示,地面数码广播电视(Digital Terrestrial TV broadcast,简称DTTB)竞标活动,最快应该在今年第三季结束。

同时,最近该公司通过马电讯(TM,4863,主板贸服股)网络推出宽频服务,进一步提升科技解决方案服务,让中小企业客户受惠。

此外,立通国际还表示,有意参与国内的远程医疗项目,并成立了一家联营公司。

华阳3送1红股

华阳3送1红股
Created 07/18/2013 - 10:19
(吉隆坡17日讯)华阳(HUAYANG,5062,主板产业股)建议以3股送1股红股方式,发送6600万股红股。

华阳表示,这项红股发送计划主要是为了回馈给股东,同时,这也有助公司提高股本,以便更能够反映出公司目前的营运规模,并改善股票流通量。

首季净利跌25%

截至7月15日,公司的股本为1亿9800万股。

增强医疗贡献 嘉隆发展减依赖种植业

增强医疗贡献 嘉隆发展减依赖种植业
Created 07/18/2013 - 10:24
(吉隆坡17日讯)嘉隆发展(TDM,2054,主板种植股)计划增强其医疗业务贡献,并减少对种植业务的依赖。

嘉隆发展主席拿督罗斯兰阿旺接受《The Edge》财经日报访问时表示,公司计划把种植业对总营业额的贡献比例减低,从现有的85%至90%,降至70%。

无论如何,公司总财务长阿米尔莫哈末表示,为了应对日渐严峻的竞争,公司仍会加强这两项业务的品牌。

在种植业务方面,嘉隆发展将通过提高营运效率,以减低成本和提高产量。

CapitaCommercial Trust: One George Street- yield income support expires (DBSV)

CapitaCommercial Trust:
HOLD; S$1.48; CCT SP
One George Street- yield income support expires
Price Target : 12-Month S$ 1.62 (Prev S$ 1.72)

•2Q13 results in line
•Yield income support for One George Street has expired
•New AEI works at Capital Tower announced
•Maintain HOLD, TP revised lower to S$1.62

Highlights
Stable performance. CCT announced 2Q13 gross revenue of S$97.5m (+1.8% y-o-y), NPI of c.S$75m (-0.5%) and distributable income of S$59.6m (+1.9%). This translates to a quarterly DPU of 2.07Scts and 1H DPU of 4.01scts (+1.3% y-o-y). The slight uptick in gross revenue was attributable to better performances from Six Battery Road and higher rental contribution from HSBC Building. CCT signed c.192k sqft of office space commitment, of which c.40% were new tenants. Management reported an unweighted average reversion rate of S$9.93 psf pm, higher than the market rate of S$9.55 psf pm (as provided by CBRE).

Ascendas REIT: Apparent growth drivers (OCBC)

Ascendas REIT:
Fair value S$2.45
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.140
versus: Current price S$2.24

Apparent growth drivers
• 11.3% rise in distribution amount
• 9.6% increase in renewal rents
• Embarking on new enhancement projects

Ascendas REIT (A-REIT) reported NPI of S$108.0m and amount available for distribution of S$85.2m, up 6.8% and 11.3% YoY respectively. The increase was driven mainly by contribution from its newly-acquired The Galen and positive rental reversions. On the operational front, A-REIT continued to deliver as well. Despite starting FY14 with 21.4% of its revenue due for renewal, A-REIT has managed to reduce the figure significantly to 14.8%, thanks to its proactive portfolio management. Moreover, positive rental reversions averaging 9.6% were achieved across all its property segments.

M1: 1H13 results mostly in line (OCBC)

M1:
Fair value S$3.10
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.15
versus: Current price S$3.12

1H13 results mostly in line
• Earnings mostly in line
• 26% on tiered data bundles
• Decent 4.7% yield

M1 Ltd saw its 2Q13 revenue +5.3% YoY (+0.6% QoQ) at S$244.5m, and was just 1.4% shy of our forecast, as smartphone customers and usage continue to drive revenue growth. Net profit climbed 11.2% YoY (-4.5% QoQ) to S$39.2m, or about 3% ahead of our estimate. 1H13 revenue slipped 1.5% to S$487.5m, meeting 42.7% of our full-year forecast (due to lower handset sales in 1Q13), but net profit rose 6.1% to S$80.2m, or 51.8% of our FY13 estimate. M1 declared an interim dividend of S$0.068/share, versus S$0.066 last year. With only very minor adjustments ( < 0.5%) to our FY13 and FY14 earnings forecasts, our DCF-based fair value remains at S$3.10; we have already factored higher interest rate assumptions in our model. Maintain HOLD for decent dividend yield of 4.7%.

A-REIT: All The Positive Signs Aligned (OSK)

AREIT: All The Positive Signs Aligned
(BUY, SGD2.26, TP: SGD2.48)

AREIT announced its 1QFY14 results recently, posting DPU of 3.55S¢ (+0.6% y-o-y); in line with our estimate (+0.2% deviation). Revenue and NPI came in at SGD150.9m (+6.3% y-o-y) and SGD108.0m (+6.8% y-oy) respectively. The increase in revenue was mainly attributed to new contributions from The Galen and positive rental reversions on renewal. Maintain BUY on AREIT with a slightly higher TP of SGD2.48.

1QFY14 results in line with expectations. 1QFY14 results were largely in line with our forecast, with a positive rental reversion averaging about 9.6% across all segments of portfolio. The occupancy rates for both its portfolio and multi-tenanted buildings (MTB) shifted to 94.3% and 92.0% vs 94.9% and 90.4% respectively from a year ago. This was a result of the completion of several asset enhancement initiatives over the year, which resulted in an increase in total available net lettable area.

Keppel REIT:Turning tables on Aussie pessimism (DBSV)

Keppel REIT:
 HOLD; S$1.36; KREIT SP
Turning tables on Aussie pessimism
Price Target : 12-Month S$ 1.36 (Prev S$ 1.43)

•2Q results in line with expectations
•Refinanced loans, improved debt maturity profile
•Acquisition of 8 Exhibition Street in Melbourne to boost earnings further  
•Maintain HOLD, TP S$1.36

2Q results in line with expectations. Keppel REIT reported a 6% rise in distributable income to S$52.8m (DPU of 1.97Scts, +1.5% y-o-y) on the back of a 3% increase in net property income to S$32.2m. The better performance was attributed to higher rental income from Ocean Financial Centre (OFC) (through an increase in its effective stake to 99.9%, improved tax transparency status) coupled with higher occupancy at 77 King Street, Sydney.

VARD Holdings: 2Q13 Results Marred By Loss-Making Brazil Unit (OSK)

VARD Holdings: 2Q13 Results Marred By Loss-Making Brazil Unit
(BUY, SGD0.87, TP: SGD1.10)

VARD’s NOK20m net loss in 2Q13 was sharply below estimates, weighed down by its Brazil yards. At a results briefing, Management provided little clarity on margins and potential of more losses in Brazil. As our model now assumes zero profit on all existing jobs in Brazil, we cut our FY13-15F EPS by 22%-40%. Maintain BUY, with a lower SGD1.10 TP, based on 10x FY14F EPS. These put the stock at 10.1x FY13F P/E and 7.4x FY14F P/E.

曾淵滄專欄 18.07.13:華潤系投機性入場

新華社首席記者王文志實名舉報華潤集團董事長宋林貪污,他指控華潤集團屬下華潤電力(836)以80億元人民幣收購一家民企礦場涉貪污受賄,結果,昨日主角潤電股價下跌10%,華潤燃氣(1193)跌3.6%,華創(291)跌2.4%,華潤置地(1109)跌1.2%,表現最「好」的是華潤水泥(1313),也跌0.5%。

潤電收購一家爛礦場的事不是昨日才曝光,早在上個月已成為香港傳媒的重點新聞,本月初更有小股東在香港法院控告潤電董事。而昨日潤電股價大跌後,依然高過上個月的低位,說明這個事件已相當程度被市場消化了。潤電在昨日一跌前,市值超過1,000億元,股價跌10%,市值蒸發超過100億元,也足夠反映收購爛礦場的虧損。

First Resources ; FFB Production To Pick Up In 2H13 (UOBKH)

First Resources
Share Price S$1.69
Target Price S$2.60
FFB Production To Pick Up In 2H13

FR reported lower-than-expected FFB production growth in 1H13. However, based on historical trends, a strong 2H recovery could still result in the company meeting its target. Despite the weak FFB production in 1H13, FR reported CPO production growth of 7% yoy on higher third-party crop intake. Maintain BUY. Target price: S$2.60.

What’s New
• Investors are concerned that the weak 1H13 production could lead to First Resources (FR) missing management’s FFB production growth target of 10%. Alternatively, this target could be missed due to the recent hot weather and haze in Central Sumatra. As shown in historical trends, a strong 2H production recovery is still possible. However, the hot weather in Central Sumatra still remains a concern.

CapitaMalls Asia : Secures Beijing mall tender; to be acquired by CRCT (DB)

CapitaMalls Asia
Price at 12 Jul 2013 (SGD) 1.92
Price target - 12mth (SGD) 2.09
52-week range (SGD) 2.24 - 1.55
Secures Beijing mall tender; to be acquired by CRCT

CapitaMalls Asia has announced that it has secured the tender for Grand Canyon Mall in Beijing for RMB1.74bn (RMB26,000psm). As part of its right of first refusal for completed properties, CRCT has exercised a call option to acquire the property subject to government approvals and financing. CRCT will fund the acquisition via existing cash, new debt and c.RMB200-400m (S$50- 80m) in new equity financing. CRCT expects to complete the acquisition in 2Q2014. Management stated that the bid was at the reserve price of the Capital Airport Real Estate Group, who had shortlisted a selection of qualified candidates. Following the acquisition, CMA will have a stake in a total of 10 malls in Beijing.

Wednesday, July 17, 2013

Fortune REIT: Solid 2Q13 (OCBC)

Fortune REIT:
Fair value HK$7.51
add: 12m dividend forecast HK$0.36
versus: Current price HK$7.15

Solid 2Q13
• DPU up 12% YoY
• Portfolio valuation up 10% since Dec
• Maintain BUY

FRT reported income available for distribution of HK$153.7m (+12.5% YoY), driven by a 10.7% YoY increase in revenue to HK$307.9m and a 11.6% YoY rise in net property income to HK$219.6m. DPU was the same as 1Q13 at 9.00 HK cents (+11.9% YoY). The results were in line with ours and the street's expectations. The portfolio valuation as of 30 June stood at HK$22.2B, up 9.8% from Dec 2012. The increase was mainly driven by improved asset performance, with cap rates of 4.3%-5.1%. The increase in asset valuation pushed the gearing ratio down to 20.9%. FRT is trading at a P/B of 0.71x (NAV of HK$10.01). We maintain our FV of HK$7.51 and BUY rating on FRT.

Technology Sector: PC slump continues (OCBC)

Technology Sector:
PC slump continues

The worldwide shipment of PCs remained sluggish, falling 10.9% YoY to 76.0m units in 2Q13, according to research firm Gartner Inc. This was the fifth consecutive quarter of YoY decline. Besides the cannibalisation of PCs by mobile devices, we believe that the still uncertain macroeconomic backdrop has also played an inherent role in causing the sluggish demand for PCs. Just last week, the IMF trimmed its global economic growth forecasts for both 2013 and 2014. Although Singapore’s 2Q13 GDP growth managed to exceed the street’s expectations, we remain cautious on the downside risks on the tech sector given heightened concerns over China’s economy and persistent weakness in the eurozone area. Hence, we maintain NEUTRAL on the sector. We replace Venture Corp [HOLD; FV: S$7.37] with ECS [BUY; FV: S$0.57] as our top pick in the sector following our downgrade of the former after its weak 1Q13 results.

Singapore Press Hldgs : 9M13 boosted by new accounting policy but operationally subdued (DB)

Singapore Press Hldgs
Price at 15 Jul 2013 (SGD) 4.33
Price target - 12mth (SGD) 4.09
52-week range (SGD) 4.65 - 3.93
9M13 boosted by new accounting policy but operationally subdued

9M13 flattered by new accounting policy; Hold on lower S$4.09 TP
SPH's 9M13 was boosted by a S$111m gain as the company transitioned to fair value accounting for its investment properties (from cost model). This caused a 22% jump in 9M13 reported NPAT to S$358m. Excluding the fair value gain, we estimate 9M13 underlying NPAT fell 16% YoY. We raise FY13e reported NPAT to reflect the accounting change but lower FY14-15e forecasts to reflect weakness in the core media business. Near-term share price will likely be supported by anticipation for the special dividend, Hold.

Sheng Siong : Still an attractive dividend play (DBSV)

Sheng Siong Group:
BUY; S$0.68; SSG SP
Still an attractive dividend play
Price Target : 12-Month S$ 0.78 (Prev S$ 0.76)

•Clear growth drivers behind the stock
•Revenue drivers in place, margins will increase
•E-commerce could be a game changer
•Maintain BUY with TP of S$0.78

Clear growth drivers going forward.  We hosted SSG’s CEO and CFO for pulse of Asia Conference in Singapore and a two-day NDR in Hong Kong, which drew keen interest from investors.  Population growth, store expansion, margin improvement and e-commerce will be SSG’s key growth drivers going forward.  SSG is a beneficiary of rising interest rates – a 1% rise in interest rates will raise  earnings  by 3%.

Keppel REIT : Steady leasing (CIMB)

Keppel REIT
Current S$1.36
Target S$1.32
Steady leasing

 The key positives in KREIT’s 2Q13 results were the higher leasing at OFC, successful backfilling at Prudential Tower and the proactive refinancing of loans due in FY14. KREIT’s headline yields are high but we see this balanced by its high asset leverage and income support.

KREIT’s 2Q13/1HFY13 DPUs broadly met consensus and our expectations, forming 25%/50% of our FY13 forecast. We tweak our FY13-15 DPUs and our DDM-based target price (discount rate: 8.3%) higher to factor in its recent acquisition. Maintain Neutral.

First Resources: 2Q13 output below expectations (DBSV)

First Resources:
BUY; S$1.74; FR SP
2Q13 output below expectations
Price Target : 12-month S$ 2.18

•2Q13 CPO output came in at 126,797 MT – below expectations on annualized basis
•2Q13 FFB output from smallholders dropped by 24% y-o-y, after two consecutive years of c.40% growths
•2Q13 earnings expectations now reduced to US$45-50m from US$50-57m previously
•Take advantage of near-term weakness. We expect FY13 own FFB output to grow 10% y-o-y; and smallholders output flat.

CapitaMalls Asia : Capital-efficient way to build up China malls (CIMB)

CapitaMalls Asia
Current S$1.93
Target S$2.14
Capital-efficient way to build up China malls

 CMA has acquired Grand Canyon Mall in Beijing with CRCT exercising its ROFR to acquire the asset by 2Q14. With this deal, we believe CMA can deepen its presence in Beijing in a capital-efficient way, while enlarging its AUM. The mall is currently under-rented.

We adjust our FY13-15 core EPS by 0-1%and lift our target price (still on a 10% discount to RNAV) slightly on higher share prices for its listed associates and AUM fees. Maintain Outperform with catalysts expected from further improvements in NPI and yields on costs.

曾淵滄專欄 17.07.13:國策股蟹貨現生機

令許多股民又愛又恨的新能源股再度出現炒作,此板塊股價波動幅度很大,每隔一段日子就炒作一次,但高價接貨的蟹民也不少。每次炒作新能源股,市場總傳出所謂政策支持言論,抓住領導人一句半句話就當成寶貝大力宣傳。

記得第一次,是國務院前總理溫家寶推出四萬億基建之後不久的事,那時是國策股的蜜月期,國策要大搞基建、國策要推新能源、國策要建保障房、國策要電器下鄉、汽車下鄉……但當溫家寶也知道炒過了頭,下令人民銀行開始收緊銀根,所有的國策股就沒運走了,個別PE炒得特別高的,跌幅也很驚人,所以至今仍有大量的蟹民。蟹民蟹貨使國策股翻炒時阻力重重,不少蟹民一見鬆綁,第一時間就拋售,因此翻炒是很費時,很辛苦的。

謝清海:港股料升兩成

【本報訊】恒指昨日表現呆滯,全日微升9點,收報21312點,更連續三日出現先升後回的情況,方向難睇清。不過,大行齊齊派定心丸,美銀美林剛發表的基金經理調查顯示,基金經理持有現金水平已升至4.6%,買入訊號顯現;而「金手指」惠理基金主席謝清海亦預料港股年底前最多升兩成,瑞信看恒指一年內見24000點,令市場充斥着唱好之聲。

基金持現金多 屬買入訊號
美銀美林調查指出,截止7月11日一周為止,基金經理持現金水平由4.3%升至4.6%,高於4.5%而觸發買貨訊號,基金經理看好熱錢湧入的日股與美股,但唱淡中國為最具隱憂的地區。

Malaysia Steel : Benefit from rising construction activities (Asia)

Malaysia Steel Works (KL) Bhd
Price RM1.04
Benefit from rising construction activities
Steel bar prices supported by domestic demand
Lower and more stable raw material costs
Earnings to be driven by volume sales

Recent Developments
We are fairly upbeat on the prospects for Malaysia Steel Works (KL) (Masteel) going forward.

To be sure, the domestic steel sector has had its ups and downs over the last few years. Bursa-listed steel companies such as Perwaja and its parent company, Kinsteel were loss-making from 2010-2012 while Ann Joo Resources slipped into the red last year following a sharp net profit decline in 2011. The volatile performance was due to a confluence of factors including fluctuating prices for raw materials as well as weak export demand and selling prices for steel products. Outlook for the global steel industry remains challenging.

TIGER AIRWAYS :Went the distance and now back on its feet (AM)

TIGER AIRWAYS HOLDING LTD
Recently, Tigerair has undergone a facelift and re-introduced itself as warm, passionate and genuine Tigerair (previously known as Tiger Airways). Together with its other rebranding efforts and key developments, we see a glimmer of hope for TGR’s recovery to become a “better and bolder airline” as aspired by CEO Koay Peng Yen. We have no rating on TGR.

What happened in the past stays in the past. Tigerair’s share price tumbled by a whopping 141% since IPO with the crippling effect from the Aussie subsidiary. Tigerair Australia won back its full operating license in October 2012. However the company continues to miss consensus estimates mainly due to its recovery efforts from the mayhem. The JV with Virgin Airways with the sale of its 60% stake in Tiger Australia would allow TGR as a Group to refocus its resources within Asia, namely in Indonesia and Philippines. And at the same time, Tigerair Australia would be able to leverage on the strengths of both shareholders to build a stronger fleet and gain market reach.

Tuesday, July 16, 2013

SPH REIT said to raise $504m in initial offering

SPH REIT said to raise $504m in initial offering
WRITTEN BY BLOOMBERG  
TUESDAY, 16 JULY 2013 20:58

Singapore Press Holdings., the newspaper publisher that owns the Paragon mall along the city’s shopping belt, raised $504 million in an initial public offering of its retail assets, according to two people with knowledge of the matter.

SPH REIT sold 559.9 million units at 90 cents, the high end of a marketed range of 85 Singapore cents to 90 cents, the people said, asking not to be named as the information is private. The sale can be increased by as much as 56 million units, according to a prospectus filed last week.

雙威13億銷售可達標

雙威13億銷售可達標
Created 07/16/2013 - 17:40
(吉隆坡16日訊)雙威(SUNWAY,5211,主板產業組)即將於新加坡和柔佛推出的產業計劃,料可獲得市場良好反應,興業研究預期該公司將可在今年達到13億令吉銷售預測的目標。

興業研究分析員最近受邀南下參觀雙威在新加坡和柔州的產業計劃,該分析員在報告中指出,雙威在新加坡的產業計劃Arc和Sea Esta都已獲全面認購,並已展開建築工程,隨著Sea Esta將於下半年開始按進度收款,預料新加坡的收入貢獻將更為強勁。

諾維娜(Novena)則是另一項深受市場期待的新加坡產業計劃,發展總值達9億1千500萬新元(23億令吉),該地段位於新加坡醫療群集區,預訂於9月先推出零售產業,接下來為醫療套房,目前該區地價為每平方英尺3千至4千新元,同時需求強勁。

H&M進軍大馬‧巴迪尼盈利受挫

H&M進軍大馬‧巴迪尼盈利受挫
Created 07/15/2013 - 17:41
(吉隆坡15日訊)巴迪尼控股(PADINI,7052,主板消費品組)受瑞典服飾商H&M自去年9月起搶灘大馬所衝擊,第三季盈利已因此走疲,分析員認為2013財政年盈利持續疲軟。

MIDF研究說,巴迪尼控股首9個月淨利按年挫12.7%至6千970萬令吉,累積營運盈利賺益跌3.8%,至15.8%,顯然H&M是可怕的競爭對手;巴迪尼不僅銷售疲軟,需花更多時間銷出貨品和賺益收窄,因此預期2013財政年淨利走跌。

配售10%料籌4282萬‧匯華財務優化

配售10%料籌4282萬‧匯華財務優化
Created 07/15/2013 - 17:36
(吉隆坡15日訊)分析員正面看待匯華產業(HUNZPTY,5018,主板產業組)私下配售其10%繳足資本,預料此舉將更進一步优化財務狀況。

安聯研究指出,該公司此次所能作出的私下配售高達2千380萬股,目前尚未敲定價格,若以每股1令吉80仙計,大概可融資3千270萬至4千280令吉,所得的資金將用以償還銀行貸款以及作為營運資本。

私下配售計劃將稀化拿督許廷忠現有55.7%的匯華產業股權,稀釋後股權料降到48.2%至50.6%的水平,分析員因此認為,增加的若是公眾持股量也不是壞事,加上該公司股票交易量不高,預料不會造成市場股票過剩。

TDM to reduce dependency on plantation sector

TDM to reduce dependency on plantation sector
Business & Markets 2013

Written by Charlotte Chong of theedgemalaysia.com  
Tuesday, 16 July 2013 10:04
KUALA LUMPUR: TDM BHD [] is keen to reduce its dependency on its PLANTATION [] division and enhance its other core division, healthcare.

Its chairman Datuk Roslan Awang Chik said it is planning to cut down the plantation sector revenue contribution to 70% from the existing 85% to 90%.

TDM chief financial officer Amir Mohd Hafiz Mohd Khalid, meanwhile, said the group will continue to drive its brand for both sectors in the face of increasing competition.

Petronas licence set to be Muhibbah's game-changer

Petronas licence set to be Muhibbah's game-changer
By Lim Cian Yai
bt@mediaprima.com.my
2013/07/16

KUALA LUMPUR: Muhibbah Engineering Bhd's shares surged and broke the RM2 barrier yesterday after research firm HwangDBS said the company's earnings per share may rise between three and 10 per cent.

The earnings booster for Klang-based Muhibbah is attributed to the licence it secured from Petroliam Nasional Bhd (Petronas).

HwangDBS said the licence is a "game-changer" for Muhibbah, as it allows the company to bid for oil and gas projects worth as much as RM5 billion .

建筑业展望乐观 券商点名3 天王 金务大睦兴旺宏洋成焦点

建筑业展望乐观 券商点名3 天王 金务大睦兴旺宏洋成焦点
Created 07/16/2013 - 08:05
(吉隆坡15日讯)建筑领域展望看俏,拥有大型基建工程和亮眼油气业加持的金务大(GAMUDA,5398,主板建筑股)、睦兴旺(MUHIBAH,5703,主板建筑股)和宏洋控股(BENALEC,5190,主板建筑股),更被评为下半年必投资的“三大天王”。

金务大:可趁低吸纳

联昌国际投资研究表示,随着大选结束,捷运路线2(MRT2)的执行前景更趋明朗,而作为捷运路线1的工程交付伙伴(PDP),金务大在路线2出线几率来得更高。

Malaysia seen as defensive market (DB)

Malaysia seen as defensive market
We were marketing our latest views on Malaysia to investors in London and Europe over the last week.

With the volatility in regional markets, Malaysia has gained attention because of its relative defensiveness. Over the last two months, the KLCI was has been flat compared to the ASEAN average of -7.2%, while the MSCI Asia ex-Japan declined -7.6%. Investors agreed that Malaysia looks expensive and bottom up stock picking was important.

From a top-down perspective, investors wanted to know whether there were any changes in the way the country is being governed since the May elections. Investors were worried about any potential leadership change at UMNO elections later this year. Also, there was a little disappointment in that there has been no concrete news of when the government will implement the GST and reductions in fuel subsidy, to reduce budget deficit and debt levels of the country.

CapitaMalls Asia : Sister act (DBSV)

CapitaMalls Asia Limited
Sister act

•CMA to acquire Grand Canyon Mall in Beijing, offers property to CRCT via ROFR
•CRCT will buy the asset via a combination of cash, debt and equity funding
•Maintain BUY of CMA and HOLD on CRCT
             
Family affair. CMA announced it has won a public tender to acquire the Grand Canyon Mall in Beijing, China, from Capital Airport Real Estate Group Co. Ltd, for Rmb1.82b (cS$373m). The 3-year old mall has a GFA of c70,000sm, which translates to Rmb26,000 psm. The acquisition is subject to Chinese government approval, and is expected to be completed in 2Q14. Upon completion, this will be CMA’s 10th shopping mall in Beijing. At the same time, CMA has offered CRCT to buy this property via a ROFR.

Tapering is not tightening (DBSV)

Tapering is not tightening
Treasury yields fell, the USD weakened and equities rallied last week after FED Chairman Ben Bernanke stressed that tapering does not equate to tightening and reassured that monetary policy will stay accommodative in the foreseeable future. The FOMC may opt to hold interest rates near zero even after the unemployment rate reaches 6.5% if inflation stays low. Ben Bernanke added that the full impact of the USD85bil sequester cut that takes effect between April- September may have yet to be felt.

Consensus view is shifting backward with regards to the timing for QE3 tapering and rate hike. Ben Bernanke’s latest comments and investors’ shift in tapering expectation pretty much blends with DBS Research’s view.

4 Reasons Why REITs Are Better Investments Than Real Estate

16 JULY 2013
4 Reasons Why REITs Are Better Investments Than Real Estate
By REITsWeek

Scottish American industrialist and philanthropist Andrew Carnegie once said that 90 percent of millionaires became so through owning real estate. This wisdom, though dispensed in the 18th century, is a wisdom that has persisted today judging from the popularity of real estate as an investment class.

There is nothing inherently erroneous in this advice despite the carnage that has unfolded in recent years in the real estate market. As an asset class, real estate investments generate a reliable stream of income besides holding the prospect of capital appreciation. And unlike the yesteryears when real estate investments are within reach of only the very wealthy, prospective investors today can participate in real estate investments through a Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT).

Pantech Group: Upbeat outlook on domestic and export demand (Alliance)

Pantech Group
Price RM1.00
52-week price range (RM) 0.517-1.04

Upbeat outlook on domestic and export demand
Securing more contracts from oil majors
Expect strong double-digit growth in FY14-FY15
Forward P/E of only 8.5x with net yield of 5.5%

Recent Development and Outlook
Investor interest in Pantech Group Holdings has been growing in recent months – and this is reflected in its rising share price. We attribute this to upbeat outlook for the company and the stock’s attractive valuations – relative to the broader market, the oil and gas sector as well as the company’s own prospective growth.

Sunway REIT : Guaranteed rent for Sunway Putra Hotel adjusted (Alliance)

Sunway REIT
12-month upside potential Target price 1.56
Current price (as at 3 July) 1.53
Guaranteed rent for Sunway Putra Hotel adjusted

Yesterday, Sunway REIT (SUNREIT) announced that the trustee, the manager and Sunway Putra Hotel Sdn Bhd (SPHSB) had on 5 January 2012 entered into a supplemental agreement to the Hotel Master Lease to document the agreement reached by the parties on the guaranteed rent payable (33.6% lower for FY14) by SPHSB, in light of a major refurbishment being carried out on the adjoining Sunway Putra Mall. We are not totally surprised by this news as we understand that the performance of Sunway Putra Hotel is likely to be adversely affected due to the major refurbishment. Nonetheless, given the net differential amount of the adjusted rent is only about 1% of SUNREIT’s full year earnings for FY14, we leave our forecasts unchanged now, pending its 4QFY13 results. Hence, we keep our NEUTRAL recommendation unchanged with a DDM-based TP of RM1.56.

Ezra : Turbulent waters (DBSV)

Ezra Holdings
FULLY VALUED S$0.955
STI : 3,236.06
Downgrade from BUY
Price Target : 12-Month S$ 0.90 (Prev S$ 1.56)
Turbulent waters

• Disappointing core net loss of US$58m in 3Q13
• Write-offs on legacy projects and project delays lead to negative contribution from subsea
• Order win momentum sustained but execution risks will likely overshadow
• Low visibility on margin recovery, downgrade to Fully Valued with lower TP of S$0.90

3Q significantly below. Stripping out exceptional gains of about US$65m, including gains on disposal of its remaining stake in Ezion,

Vard Holdings: A Writeoff Year (MKE)

Vard Holdings
Hold (from Buy)
Share price: SGD0.865
Target price: SGD0.95 (from SGD1.52)
A Writeoff Year

Below expectations, downgrade to Hold, TP SGD0.95. Vard’s 2Q13 results were lower than our adjusted expectations following the company’s profit guidance on 28 June 13. 2Q13 revenue came in at NOK2.9b (-1% YoY, +7% QoQ) with a net loss of NOK20m (-118% YoY, -111% QoQ). 1H13 PATMI makes up only 25% of our previous FY13F forecast. If the goodwill impairment of NOK70m is excluded, the company would have been profitable. FY13F will be a writeoff year and we think that Vard is taking this chance to kitchen sink all the negatives to position for a better FY14F recovery. Despite stock trading at only 5.7x/4.9x FY14F/15F PERs after our earnings cut, negative sentiments will weigh down on the stock. Downgrade to Hold, with TP of SGD0.95, pegged to 1.4x fwd P/B, which is -2 std dev below mean.

HPH Trust : Soft volume seems already priced in (DB)

HPH Trust :
Price at 11 Jul 2013 (USD) 0.76
Price target - 12mth (USD) 0.83
Soft volume seems already priced in

Sequential recovery remains intact and yield still looks attractive
We cut our earnings estimates as HPHT’s volume YTD turned out lower than we expected. However, on the back of the acceleration of G3 growth and the strong recovery of the US housing sector, we expect China’s exports to improve 2H onward. 2013E DPU of HKD40 cents still gives a yield close to 7%, which remains attractive, in our view. Maintain Buy.

Muhibbah Engineering : Tip of the iceberg (DBSV)

Muhibbah Engineering
BUY RM1.94
KLCI : 1,785.65
Price Target : 12-Month RM 3.10 (Prev RM 2.80)
Tip of the iceberg

Capitalising on Petronas license: pre-qualified for RM4-5bn worth of jobs
Malaysian proxy for Myanmar?
Cheap proxy to O&G sector and Favelle Favco
Maintain BUY with higher RM3.10 TP

Game changer. The recently secured Petronas license will turn Muhibbah into a prominent O&G player. It has pre-qualified for three projects worth RM4-5bn in total. Muhibbah is among the top three largest license holders, with 20k MT annual capacity. It intends to expand by 20 acres, which could double its fabrication yard capacity. We raise FY13-15F EPS by 3-10% after increasing new contract wins (value) by 10-20%. There is potential upside from variation orders and claims from previous projects. Currently, about half of Muhibbah’s RM2.3bn orderbook is O&G-related.

曾淵滄專欄16.07.13:阿里概念長炒長有

港股成交僅460億元,基本上仍被A股拉着走,騰訊(700)股價升至321.4元,不久之前,我曾經寫過一篇文章談騰訊與其他幾隻網股,指出這幾隻股股價不斷造高,背後發功的人可能是阿里巴巴的馬雲,我說馬雲是股市的造勢高手,當年阿里巴巴能夠以100倍PE上市,上市後又再升一倍,創造了神話,馬雲功不可沒。現在阿里巴巴打算再度上市,騰訊及其他網股飛升,自然也是馬雲造勢的功夫之一。當然,世界再強的造勢人也不可能逆着大市盲衝,前一陣子,騰訊股價也隨大市的大調整而回落,但當大市回穩,騰訊股價升得更快。

如果你錯失前陣子大市調整時買騰訊及其他與阿里巴巴有關的股,這次學個經驗,在阿里巴巴正式上市前,大市再有調整,可以趁低買騰訊及其他網股,還有與阿里巴巴有合作關係的復星(656)。

YTL Land’s luxury-centric homes in Singapore

The Edge Singapore, July 15, 2013

BY AMY TAN
OF  THE  EDGE  SINGAPORE

On June 21, when the Pollutant Stand­ards Index (PSI) in Singapore soared to a hazardous level of 401 in the afternoon, even the multimillion-dollar designer homes in Sentosa Cove had their views shrouded in heavy smog. Ensconced in the show villa on Sandy Island in Sentosa Cove that day was the cherubic, fair-faced Joseph Yeoh, who was a picture of health, in sharp contrast to the grey washed-out background.

The 27-year-old son of billionaire Tan Sri Dr Fran­cis Yeoh, group managing director of YTL Corp, was completely unfazed by the haze. While some pundits bet that the PSI would reach 500 that weekend and others mulled over the long-term impact on property values, Yeoh dismissed it altogether. "Oh, it will just blow away," he said.

Biosensors International : Competitor’s DES approved in Japan (DB)

Biosensors International :
Price at 10 Jul 2013 (SGD) 1.06
Price target - 12mth (SGD) 1.15
52-week range (SGD) 1.40 - 1.02
Competitor’s DES approved in Japan

Royalty revenue is likely to decline further in 2013
We anticipate further market share decline in Japan for Nobori with competitors’ launch of new products, such as Xience Xpedition. We estimate royalty rate at 32-34% for Japan sales of Nobori, where Biosensors does not have a guarantee for minimal royalty payment. Since achieving 30% market share after product launch in May 2011, Nobori market share has declined to 16%-17% as of 1Q13 by our estimate. We model 10% sales decline in Japan for FY14.

Hunza Properties 3QFY13: Looking forward to a better FY14 (Alliance)

Hunza Properties
12-month upside potential Target price 2.62
Current price (as at 30 May) 2.32
3QFY13: Looking forward to a better FY14

 Another dismal quarterly results was not a surprise as Hunza runs down its inventory amid a year without any significant property launches. Nonetheless, we remain upbeat of its near term outlook which is set to change dramatically once its Gurney Paragon Mall opens on 23 July. Property launches should also resume post 13GE. With anticipated earnings CAGR of 81% over the next 2 years, we expect Hunza to be re-rated going forward. As such, we reiterate our BUY call.

MAS staff key to turnaround plan

MAS staff key to turnaround plan
By Sharen Kaur
sharen@mediaprima.com.my
2013/07/16

BIG POTENTIAL: But analysts are divided if it is overstaffed or operating less efficiently than rivals
MALAYSIA Airlines (MAS)'s workforce is key to the national carrier's turnaround plan, but analysts are divided on whether it is overstaffed or operating less efficiently than its rivals.

A quick check on its financials shows that MAS has 19,406 employees on its wage book, while Singapore Airlines (SIA) has 23,189.

As at end-2012, the actual sales per employee for MAS was US$221,761 (RM707,417), while SIA's actual sales per employee stood at US$524,053 as at end-March 2013.

Monday, July 15, 2013

重量級公司陸續上市‧產業股估值續改善

重量級公司陸續上市‧產業股估值續改善
Created 07/15/2013 - 17:30
(吉隆坡15日訊)大馬產業市場近期熱鬧非凡,繼依斯干達浮城控股(Iskandar Waterfront)和IOI集團(IOICORP,1961,主板種植組)旗下IOI產業陸續步入上市道路後,如今再傳出森那美(SIME,4197,主板貿服組)考慮讓旗下產業臂膀獨立上市,對於這項“超重量級產業股”上市消息,分析員認為大型產業股陸續上市有望帶動馬股產業股估值繼續改善。

產業股未反映潛在價值

分析員說,產業股今年至今是馬股表現最佳的領域之一,可儘管表現超越大市,許多產業股其實仍未反映潛在價值,未來股價還有上揚空間。

Malaysia: New Belle of the Ball

SATURDAY, JULY 13, 2013
Malaysia: New Belle of the Ball
By BEN LEVISOHN | MORE ARTICLES BY AUTHOR
With other emerging markets looking ugly, the country sports new appeal for stock-market investors

Emerging Markets

It wasn't so long ago that investors compared choosing among developed nations to picking the prettiest contender in an ugly contest. These days, the same could be said of emerging markets.

When the International Monetary Fund cut its forecast for emerging-market growth by 0.3 percentage point last week, it confirmed what many investors were thinking: Emerging markets don't feel like the safest bet just now. China's economy is slowing—the IMF cut its forecast to 7.8%, down from 8.1%. Brazil's central bank is hiking interest rates as it attempts to slow the rising prices that have led to protests, never mind its stagnating economy. And Russia is, well, Russia.

华商与经济转型系列81——基建发展(上):建筑产业提升带动经济

华商与经济转型系列81——基建发展(上):建筑产业提升带动经济
Created 07/08/2013 - 14:53
基建发展计划带动的,先是建筑领域发展,接着是基建社区的政经文教发展。

这些地区的人口也随着经济发展而开始增加,对房产需求也提升,对各方面的需求也将增加,可谓是带动连锁的经济效益。

国家建设发展除了依赖妥善的规划与政策,决策者的前瞻性思考与预见未来发展的能力,也是关键的一环。

华商与经济转型系列82——基建发展(下):马新高铁催旺周遭经济

华商与经济转型系列82——基建发展(下):马新高铁催旺周遭经济
Created 07/15/2013 - 12:31
我国若要达到每年经济增长至少5%,以在2020年达到高收入国地位,基建发展和推动经济成长的各主要因素缺一不可。

基建建设被视为提振经济的发展策略,因此,在过去大马计划和2011年提出的经济转型执行方案(ETP)中,就以基建建设为重点之一。

政府走向基建高度发展策略,主要是力求稳定高速率增长方向,从而引领国内需求从消费转向投资是自然发展。

股海宝藏:鹏尼迪只欠东风

股海宝藏:鹏尼迪只欠东风
Created 07/15/2013 - 14:18
不同年代有不同行业赚大钱。大马将来有何行业赚大钱呢?若你能准确预测,而在股价低廉时买进,你定是股市大赢家。笔者认为有一个行业,在未来几年仍能获巨利———产业,而如果产业公司拥有以下条件,那么,它的赚钱潜能将不可限量。即:(一)地库要大(二)地点要好(三)地价要低廉(四)财力要雄厚(五)过去十年要赚大钱(六)未来盈利要成长(七)土地生黄金

环顾上市的产业公司当中,鹏尼迪(PLENITU,5075,主板产业股)便具备上述的优势,所以笔者以此股加以分析。

How dangerous Is Singapore's soaring household debt?

Published: Sunday, 14 Jul 2013 | 9:16 PM ET
By: Ansuya Harjani | Writer, CNBC Asia

The wealthy Southeast Asian nation Singapore has seen soaring household debt levels in recent years as low interest rates have led to a borrowing spree, prompting the government to step in to curb demand.
This island state, which is an important financial hub, has among the highest level of household borrowing relative to gross domestic product (GDP) in Asia at 77 percent, rising from around 64 percent in 2007. Home loans, which account for around three quarters of household debt, have grown rapidly in recent years together with a booming property market.

国行出手太轻 家债野马难驯?

国行出手太轻 家债野马难驯?
Created 07/15/2013 - 11:31
马来西亚的家庭债务,在过去数年快速攀升,而增长的幅度都超越了国内生产总值(GDP)以及家庭收入。

截至今年3月底,我国的家债规模已经高达7843亿9450万令吉,占GDP的82.9%,如果再不适时出手勒住这匹野马,家债在2018年的比重将直冲97%!

然而,国行早前祭出的“连环三拳”,力道是否够强?

Noble Group : Waiting For Clearer Indicators (UOBKH)

Noble Group
Share Price S$0.915
Target Price S$0.920

Waiting For Clearer Indicators
The worst for earnings could be over but the turning point remains unclear with margin under pressure from weak demand and large soybean, sugar cane and cotton supplies. New capacities could provide buffer and new investment opportunities could lead to more offtake from miners. Upgrade to HOLD as share price has corrected since our downgrade in May 13. Target price: S$0.92. Entry price: S$0.83.

Ezra Holdings 3QFY13: Subsea Services Post A Loss, Instead Of A Rebound (UOBKH)

Ezra Holdings
Share Price S$0.955
Target Price S$1.07
3QFY13: Subsea Services Post A Loss, Instead Of A Rebound

3QFY13 results were below expectations. Excluding other operating income of US$63.5m, Ezra would have posted a loss of US$56.3m due to subsea services losses. Two consecutive quarters of poor subsea services performance suggest execution risks. Subsea gross margin was already weak at about 9% in 2QFY13 vs 15% in 1QFY13, and now a loss in 3QFY13. Downgrade to HOLD with a lower target price of S$1.07.

KL-S'pore high-speed rail link to get SPAD boost

KL-S'pore high-speed rail link to get SPAD boost
By Sharen Kaur
sharen@mediaprima.com.my
2013/07/15

2020 COMPLETION TARGET: Feasibility study in final stage of preparation, says its CEO
THE Land Public Transport Commission (SPAD) will speed up the process of kick-starting the multi-billion ringgit high-speed rail (HSR) link between Kuala Lumpur and Singapore and ensure it is operational by 2020.

Its chief executive officer Mohd Nur Ismal Mohamed Kamal said the feasibility study is in its final stage of preparation.

SPAD has been carrying out a study on the HSR project since early last year.

低息促使存款減少 國人增加房產股市投資

報導:林苡欣

 (吉隆坡12日訊)國民存款現階段佔家債108%,較2008年133%大幅滑落,分析師指出,主因是消費者在低息環境下不停尋找其他投資方式增加收入,故出現大量資金流入房地產與股市等現象。

 馬銀行投資銀行今日撰寫報告說,依目前情況來看,只要資產素質維持良好,且國人償債率(debt service ratio)穩週,目前的家債水平,不致于形成系統性風險(systemic risk)。

 “家債成長幅度跑贏國內生產總值增勢,的確是件需謹慎關注的事,但大家應記得一點,存款滑落其中一個最主要的原因,在于低息環境促使投資者不斷多元化投資方式,以增加收入。”

壞消息已盡 中資股短期回穩

壞消息已盡 中資股短期回穩
2013年7月15日
【明報專訊】港股上周大反撲,全星期恒指及國指分別升2%和2.4%,本倉價值則升2.5%。央行繼續是投資市場主角,雖然聯儲局主席伯南克上周言論依舊空泛,但措辭就由鷹派轉鴿派,並大派定心丸在可見將來都需要維持極度寬鬆貨幣政策。

恒指終升破21,000點這個重大阻力位,但周五卻出現財政部長樓繼偉指經濟增長6.5%亦沒有問題,令中港股市驟遇冷鋒,破位後的市依然飄忽。

IGB Real Estate Investment Trust : Asset injection in the medium term (MIDF)

IGB Real Estate Investment Trust
Price (9 Jul 2013) RM 1.31
Target Price RM 1.43
Asset injection in the medium term

South Key Mall future asset injection
Organic grow potential
Maintain NEUTRAL recommendation

South Key Mall: Recently, IGB Real Estate Investment Trust’s (IGB REIT) parent company, IGB Corporation Berhad (IGB Corp) finalised the shareholder’s agreement and sales & purchase agreement for the jointventure (JV) to develop South Key Mall in Johor Bahru. IGB Corp owns 70% equity stake in the JV.

M-REITS - Yields Are Losing Its Shine

We downgrade the M-REIT sector to Underweight. The attraction of yields for the M-REITs will be eroded as bond yields are expected to stabilise at a new higher level. The S-REITs have already been hit with FSTREI falling by 15% from its recent high in May 2013. The M-REITs, however, have yet to fully price in the risk. We adjust our valuations for all the M-REITs under our coverage by raising our discount rate assumptions by 50-80bps.

- Bond yields normalising to new levels.  Given the rising bond yields environment, we believe the attraction of yields for M-REITs will be eroded, as the spread for M-REITs will become narrower. This trend is likely to persist over the next one year as bond yields gradually adjust to new high levels, after staying at an average low of 3.44% over the past 12 months.

Property – Malaysia Hunting For Hidden Gems (UOBKH)

Property – Malaysia
Hunting For Hidden Gems

Mainstream property stocks are likely to trade range-bound amid a cautious sentiment, as we expect more measures to be introduced in order to dampen speculative activities. Nevertheless, there are still a handful of mid-cap property companies which promise potentially exciting returns, including MPHB Capital, which we believe will be able to monetise substantially undervalued landbank. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT.

S-REITs – Just keep swimming (DBSV)

 S-REITs – Just keep swimming

•Strong occupancies and performance across the different segments indicate organic growth.
•Cap rates: underlying book values should remain resilient
•Impact of labour crunch on tenants: securing and maintaining quality labour is first priority
•REITs in the washer, but fundamentals are intact

The proof is in the pudding. We hosted S-REITs from the industrial, hospitality and retail sectors at the recent bi-annual DBSV Pulse of Asia Conference. Against a backdrop of questions about higher interest rates and borrowing costs, labour crunch and slowing economic growth in Asia, the REITs remained generally upbeat about occupancies and rents, citing still-strong tenant performance and positive rental reversions as indicators of organic growth going forward.

曾淵滄專欄15.07.13:港股現時相當超值

國務院總理李克強一句「不滑出下限」言論,令A股吃了興奮劑,情況有如2007年「港股直通車」那樣,於是中央官員趕快冷卻股民熱脹頭腦,其中新華社發表文章說︰「中央政府經濟政策從未改變。」

我認為,李克強若能「保七」,已算很不錯。鄧小平南巡之後,增長率驚人,大量農民湧入城鎮,大大增加了生產力,所以經濟增長率可以輕易地保持雙位數增長。今日的中國,經濟總體生產水平已經相當高,要像過去那樣高速增長的唯一方法,就是製造泡沫,胡亂投資。不過,泡沫遲早會破,泡沫爆破後的療傷期會很長,日本是最佳樣本。宏觀調控是朱鎔基發明的,他一邊調控一邊喊「保八」,現在李克強搞宏觀調控,也設下限。事實上若能「保七」,中國已是全世界經濟增長最佳的國家。

Triyards Holdings (ETL SP) 3QFY13: In Line; Ramps Up Ship Repair Capacity (UOBKH)

Triyards Holdings (ETL SP)
Share Price S$0.74
Target Price S$1.11
3QFY13: In Line; Ramps Up Ship Repair Capacity

Triyards’ reported 3QFY13 net profit was in line with our forecast. The group had recently commissioned a floating dock, which will ramp up ship repair capacity and contribute incremental earnings of US$2m-3m a year. Management also indicated that Triyards is seeing strong enquiries for their proprietary third-generation SEU, which will be the main driver of order growth going forward. Maintain BUY with unchanged target price of S$1.11

Vard Holdings : Quarterly loss on difficulties in Brazil; earnings visibility remains poor (CS)

Vard Holdings Ltd
Maintain UNDERPERFORM
Price (11 Jul 13 , S$) 0.87
TP (prev. TP S$) 0.80 (0.80
Quarterly loss on difficulties in Brazil; earnings visibility remains poor


● Following a profit warning on 28 June, Vard reported a 2Q13 net loss of NKr20 mn driven mainly by execution challenges in its Brazil operations. While 2Q13 EBITDA margin of 4.1% was in line with our forecast, the company was further impacted by a NKr70 mn write-down of goodwill for its Niteroi yard in Brazil.

● In Niteroi, the remaining four vessels are expected for be delayed by a quarter on average. Vard was also impacted by higher start-up costs in its new Promar yard, as well as cost escalations for two LPG carrier hulls subcontracted to CGU-Rio Nave on a cost-plus contract.

Volatile shipping market shows signs of recovery

The cost of shipping raw materials is surging but amid slowing Chinese economic growth and other global strains, the market remains well below its historical peak reached just before the financial crisis.

LONDON: The cost of shipping raw materials is surging but amid slowing Chinese economic growth and other global strains, the market remains well below its historical peak reached just before the financial crisis.

The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) -- which tracks rates to transport dry commodities such as coal, iron ore and grain across 20 shipping routes -- jumped 68 per cent during the first half of the year.

The key barometer had struck an 18-month high at 1,179 points at the beginning of July.

Sunday, July 14, 2013

Will Far East Orchard’s Foray Down Under Prove To Be A Success?

12 JULY 2013
Will Far East Orchard’s Foray Down Under Prove To Be A Success?
By Jade Lee and Shane Goh

Since Far East Orchard (FE Orchard) announced its restructuring plan in June last year, its stock has surged more than 60 percent to close at $2.06 on 7 July 2013. With the firm receiving the nod from shareholders on its joint ventures (JVs) to foray into Australia, can we expect more good news from its partnerships with Toga Group and The Straits Trading Company (STC)?

Following a strategic business transformation into hospitality management and healthcare real estate in July last year, FE Orchard, formerly known as Orchard Parade Holdings, is now ready to soar higher with its redefined businesses of 93 units of medical suites and the entire hospitality management segment of Far East Organization.

ChanYanChong-Commentary 12.07.13

 12 JULY 2013
Dr Chan Yan Chong’s Column
By Dr Chan Yan Chong

On 9 July, the Dow Jones Industrial Average surged past 15,300 points – a mere 1.5 percent away from the historical high. The Hong Kong and Singapore bourses, too, rebounded with China the only market that continued to underperform. There is still a lack of confidence in the Chinese stock market despite a rebound in early June, which is why the Hong Kong and Singapore bourses have also been weaker relative to the US market.

Gabriel Gan: Was 19 June The Day That Killed The Golden Goose Or Did It Wake Investors Up?

12 JULY 2013
Was 19 June The Day That Killed The Golden Goose Or Did It Wake Investors Up?
By Gabriel Gan

The day US Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke warned that the stimulus package may come to an end soon, stock markets and commodities fell while the yield on US Treasuries surged after investors dumped almost all financial instruments in their portfolio.

The Bull Run in the US market has been ongoing since 2009 when the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) reached a low of 6,469 points and never looked back. While there were blips along the way, especially when the European debt crisis struck, the trend was up, up and up till 22 May when the index traded at an intra-day high of 15,542 points and there were whispers among Fed officials that an exit strategy was in place for QE III to end.

BFM Spotlight - Jim Rogers: What Should You Invest In?



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The American Recovery Has Legs



How Asia's Central Banks Can Combat Weakening Growth in China



美国退出QE恐为新兴市场带来“腥风血雨”



财经追击 2013 - 第12集 (23/06/13)-Mass Private Homes Getting Pricier? & Face-to-Face with CEO: Tan Tong Hai of Starhub



财经追击 2013 - 第13集 (30/06/2013) -黄金再度暗然失色


Dearth of Affordable Homes in Malaysia



Temasek: Still Cautious With China, U



Lim Say Boon: Why the Overreaction to Taper Is Unjustified



Asia Property – Boom or Bubble?


Investing in Malaysia’s Property Market


Fighting the Competition in the Skies


Fed Tapering: Implications for Asia



胡立阳: 我只买看得懂的股票 (解码财商)



Warren E. Buffett(沃伦•巴菲特)
Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful
别人贪婪时我恐惧, 别人恐惧时我贪婪
投资只需学好两门课: 一,是如何给企业估值,二,是如何看待股市波动
吉姆·罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)
“错过时机”胜于“搞错对象”:不会全军覆没!”
做自己熟悉的事,等到发现大好机会才投钱下去

乔治·索罗斯(George Soros)

“犯错误并没有什么好羞耻的,只有知错不改才是耻辱。”

如果操作过量,即使对市场判断正确,仍会一败涂地。

李驰(中国巴菲特)
高估期间, 卖对, 不卖也对, 买是错的。
低估期间, 买对, 不买也是对, 卖是错的。

Tan Teng Boo


There’s no such thing as defensive stocks.Every stock can be defensive depending on what price you pay for it and what value you get,
冷眼(冯时能)投资概念
“买股票就是买公司的股份,买股份就是与陌生人合股做生意”。
合股做生意,则公司股份的业绩高于一切,而股票的价值决定于盈利。
价值是本,价格是末,故公司比股市重要百倍。
曹仁超-香港股神/港股明灯
1.有智慧,不如趁势
2.止损不止盈
成功者所以成功,是因为不怕失败!失败者所以失败,是失败后不再尝试!
曾淵滄-散户明灯
每逢灾难就是机会,而是在灾难发生时贱价买股票,然后放在一边,耐性地等灾难结束
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