Saturday, July 13, 2013

财经追击 2013 - 第14集 (07/07/2013) H2 2013 Equity Market



曾渊沧:港股回升空间仍大 把握追货时机

突然间,香港股市转势,转势的源头是中国A股,两天前,A股突然急升,上证综指升2.2%,昨天再升3.2%,A股急升也使得港股上升。

过去一段时间,美股表现的很不错,但是港股受A股所累,升不上。现在A股优转势之势,再加上美股造好,昨日道琼斯指数创出收市的历史最高纪录,相信港股有力再向上升,追回失地。两天前,A股的突然转势,香港的投资者收不到任何有关的消息,眼明手快者再上跟风入市后,余者仍在观望,等到收市后,才知道原来A股的突然上升是受总理李克强讲话所推动的。这与2007年的某一天,股市突然急升,收市后才收到中央有意推动港股直通车的情况有点相似。

渣打上调评级至中和 马股仍是亚洲避风港

渣打上调评级至中和 马股仍是亚洲避风港
Created 07/13/2013 - 08:42
(吉隆坡12日讯)渣打银行首席投资策略师史蒂夫布莱斯认为,马股仍是亚洲的避风港,但因为估值较高,上行空间有限,因此上调马股至“中和”评级。

他在媒体汇报会上预测,下半年富时隆综指(KLCI)增长率,预计会是较低的单位数。

“马股仍提供可观的周息率,整体的情况仍不错。”

随着联储局可能延迟收窄购债,他认为周息率高的马股将有不错表现,但上行空间已不大。

他预测,与经济转型执行方案(ETP)相关的股项,或业务专注在先进经济体的公司,将有良好表现。

远东乌节进军纽澳市场会否取得成功?

远东乌节进军纽澳市场会否取得成功?
文: 李金婷 (译:伍丽芳) 2013年07月12日 企业摘要
远东乌节(Far East Orchard)自去年6月宣布其重组计划后,其股价上升了超过60%,它于2013年7月5日以2.06元收盘。随着股东批准公司组合资进军澳洲,远东乌节与Toga集团(Toga Group)和海峡商行(The Straits Trading Company)的合作将会迎来更多好消息吗?

自去年7月将业务转型为酒店管理及保健房地产后,前称乌节广场酒店的远东乌节现已准备好展翅高飞,其新业务包括93间医疗套房和远东机构(Far East Organization)的整个酒店管理部门。

但远东乌节不满足于现状,它计划拓展其酒店管理业务,并在澳洲取得强稳的立足点。实际上,远东乌节已透过和澳洲的Toga集团及新加坡上市公司海峡商行组合资,进军澳洲市场。它继而成为澳洲大型酒店业者之一,其本年迄今的酒店品牌组合从3个增加到9个,而酒店物业扩大至80个,酒店客房超过1万3,000间。

曾淵滄-股市资讯专栏 12.07.13

曾渊沧博士专栏
文: 曾渊沧博士 2013年07月12日 曾渊沧博士专栏
7月9日,美国道琼斯指数重上15,300点,离历史高点仅差1.5%。新加坡与香港股市也有相当的反弹,不过中国A股依然不济,6月底曾经出现反弹,但之后的就无力再升,信心明显不足。新加坡与香港股市也因中国A股表现差而无法像美国股市那样强力的反弹。美国联储局过去两次开会都放风说要退市,也曾经引起全球市场的震动。不过,我也曾经指出,联储局的吹风目的就是让市场做好退市准备,适应退市。而且退市是先减少购债,最后才加息,加息日期仍然相当遥远。因此,美国股市在震动之后,反弹得也快。当然,今后会继续受退市阴影所影响,必须靠上市企业的利润来维持股价。目前的反弹就是靠上市企业宣布不错的利润来推动。

颜子伟: 6月19日是宰了金鹅的日子,又或者是唤醒投资者的日子?

6月19日是宰了金鹅的日子,又或者是唤醒投资者的日子?
文: 颜子伟 (译:麦美莹) 2013年07月12日 展望
当美国联邦储备局主席伯南克提出警告,说刺激配套可能会在不久后结束那天,投资者差不多把他们组合里的所有金融产品抛售,令股市及商品价格下跌,而美国国库券的收益率飙升。

自道琼斯工商指数在2009年跌至6,469点低位后,美国股市便一直处于牛市中,虽然一路上会忽高忽低,尤其是当欧洲危机来袭时,但整体而言,走势是向上的,直至5月22日,当道指以15,542点日内高位交易及联储局官员传出第三轮量化宽松政策(QE III)计划退市后,形势出现变化。

Global Economic Shocks Coming in 2014 Jim Rogers



China Valuations Very Cheap: Wong Sui Jau



美債殖利率再度狂飆,央行對利率控制已力不從心?



胡立阳 (解码财商): 怀中抱月 巧卖股票



Gold Crash Comparison: 1978 vs 2013 - Will The Outcome Be The Same?



罗杰斯:中国空头大错特错 人民币未来将大涨

罗杰斯:中国空头大错特错 人民币未来将大涨
2013年6月5日 08:38 来源:上海证券报

量子基金前合伙人、知名投资人吉姆·罗杰斯4日在上海重申了他对中国的看好。上世纪八、九十年代曾经骑着摩托车游历中国的罗杰斯,对眼下国际上的中国空头们嗤之以鼻。他称中国将是21世纪最成功的国家。

  “如果在座的哪位要卖人民币,记得找我,我很高兴接手。现在说不方便的话,等下我们可以私下谈。”量子基金前合伙人、知名投资人吉姆·罗杰斯4日在上海重申了他对中国的看好。上世纪八、九十年代曾经骑着摩托车游历中国的罗杰斯,对眼下国际上的中国空头们嗤之以鼻。他称中国将是21世纪最成功的国家。“中国空头们并没有搞清楚状况”

Friday, July 12, 2013

怡保花園產託面對租金挑戰

怡保花園產託面對租金挑戰
Created 07/12/2013 - 17:31
(吉隆坡12日訊)怡保花園產托(IGBREIT,5227,主板產業投資信托組)與母公司怡保花園(IGB,1597,主板產業組)聯營發展新山South Key商場,分析員認為這僅於中期內增加總出租面積,短期內部成長依然由租金更新帶動,預見未來商場林立將導致零售市場充滿挑戰。

近期,怡保花園產托及怡保花園獲股東同意及達成買賣協議,聯營發展新山South Key商場,後者持有70%聯營股權。

怡保花園將嘗試複製谷中城(Mid Valley City)成功模式至South Key商場,已取得發展工程訂單,建築工程計劃2013年展開,預計於2018/2019年竣工,綜合發展計劃包括酒店、住宅、商務及150萬平方英呎的零售商場。

庫存料觸底反彈‧原棕油價格預測分歧

庫存料觸底反彈‧原棕油價格預測分歧
Created 07/11/2013 - 17:48
(吉隆坡11日訊)6月大馬原棕油庫存跌至27個月新低,分析員一致預期庫存已觸底,短期將出現反彈,但對原棕油價前景卻意見分歧,看好者相信庫存正常化、弱勢馬幣和高於平均的大豆油價差將為價格帶來支撐,看淡者則預見低迷出口將令價格持續承壓。

大馬棕油局數據指出,6月原棕油產量按月走揚2.3%至142萬公噸,但按年則走低3.7%,而出口則按年下跌7.8%至141萬公噸,按月則持平,比市場調查所得的增長3%至4%為差。

雙威料融資南柔發展

雙威料融資南柔發展
Created 07/12/2013 - 11:40
(吉隆坡11日訊)雙威(SUNWAY,5211,主板產業組)3配1附加股計劃今日除權後,股價略為走高,一度揚升9仙,或是2.89%至3令吉20仙的全天最高峰。全天收市仍起4仙至3令吉15仙。

除權日股價走高

雙威附加股計劃今日除權後,股價定在3令吉11仙水平,早市一度略為下跌1仙,至3令吉10仙的全天最低,較後獲得扶持呈穩回揚。全天共有119萬1千股易手,交投適中。

大馬研究指出,該行對雙威給於“持有”評級,除權後合理價格為3令吉5仙,或等於其綜合估值價值3令吉21仙折價5%水平。

華陽料從“首房"受惠

華陽料從“首房"受惠
Created 07/12/2013 - 17:30
( 吉隆坡12 日訊) 華陽(HUAYANG,5062,主板產業組)是可負擔房屋領域的出色代表,馬銀行研究員認為,該公司將不會受即將推行的信貸緊縮措施的太大影響。

柔霹新推產業70%
客戶為首購族

華陽旗下產業,尤其是位於柔佛和霹靂的產業,售價在10萬至40萬令吉之間,同時其70%顧客為首次購屋者,因此該公司有望從政府的我的第一間房屋計劃中受惠。

市場平均預測華陽2013/14財政年將取得8千970萬令吉淨利,相等於5年盈利年均複合成長率59%。

鹏达集团 开拓印尼油气市场

鹏达集团 开拓印尼油气市场
Created 07/12/2013 - 10:59
目标价:1.43令吉

最新进展

鹏达集团(Pantech,5125,主板贸服股)子公司接获印尼政府油气公司———Pertamina公司,颁发一份价值150万美元(约480万令吉)合约,以供应导入长弯管。

行家建议

虽然合约价值不大,但是我们认为这对鹏达集团是一个好开始,这是公司进军印尼油气领域的机会。

宏洋控股 售土收益低于预期

宏洋控股 售土收益低于预期
Created 07/12/2013 - 10:57
目标价:2.01令吉

最新进展

宏洋控股(BENALEC,5190,主板建筑股)宣布,独资子公司Heritage Land分别与Highbond Capital和Gigayear Revenue签署买卖合约,以5431万令吉脱售8片有期地契土地。

行家建议

我们对这项消息不感意外,因为已预料公司会在2014财年脱售60英亩土地。

5430万令吉的脱售价相等于约每平方尺30令吉。截至2012年6月30日,这些土地的账面价值为4490万令吉,或每平方尺24.80令吉。

专注博彩业务 传万能脱售U Mobile股权

专注博彩业务 传万能脱售U Mobile股权
Created 07/12/2013 - 10:11
(吉隆坡11日讯)消息指出,万能(MAGNUM,3859,主板贸服股)计划全盘脱售U Mobile有限公司的股权,全神贯注在博彩业务上。

《商业时报》引述消息人士指出,万能计划在U Mobile于今年上市之后,沽清该公司股权。

目前,万能持有U Mobile的6至7%股权。

U Mobile的大股东是丹斯里陈志远,也是成功集团的创办人。

Wilmar: No boost from Clariant JV (OCBC)

Wilmar:
Fair value S$3.25
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.06
versus: Current price S$3.09

No boost from Clariant JV
• Amines JV with Clariant
• Overshadowed by China woes
• Firmer USD lends some support

Wilmar international Limited (WIL) has just announced that it has received the relevant merger clearances for the establishment of a 50-50 JV called “the global amines company” with Clariant International Ltd (CIL), a world leader in Specialty Chemicals.

Ascott Residence Trust: Expect mute 2013 performance (OCBC)

Ascott Residence Trust:
Fair value S$1.31
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.083
versus: Current price S$1.300

Cut FV to S$1.31
• Relatively high gearing
• Expect mute 2013 performance
• Reduce FV to S$1.31

The unit price of Ascott Residence Trust (ART) has fallen 13.3% since the high of S$1.50 on 22 May 2013 along with the general market pull-back over concerns about an early tapering of the Fed’s QE program.

Pantech Group Holdings - Making Inroads To Indonesia

Pantech Group Holdings -
Price Target:1.28
Last Price:0.995
Making Inroads To Indonesia

News    Yesterday, Pantech Group Holdings (PANTECH) announced that its wholly-owned subsidiary has secured a contract valued at USD1.5m (RM4.8m) to supply induction long bends to Pertamina, the Indonesian stateowned oil and natural gas corporation.

The shipment of the induction long bends to Indonesia is scheduled for 2QFY2014.

Comments    We are positive on the as we believe this is just a starting point for further jobs from Pertamina, despite the low contract sum.

Sunway Bhd - Goes ex-rights

Sunway Bhd -
Price Target:3.21
Last Price:3.15
Goes ex-rights

- We maintain our Hold on Sunway with a fair value of RM3.05/share ex-rights, based on a 5% discount to our SOP value of RM3.21/share.

- The stock will be traded ex for the company’s renounceable rights issue (one-for-every 3 existing shares) of up to 568.7mil shares at RM1.70/share. The entitlement date on 15 July, and the trading of the rights (SUNWAY-OR) will start on 16 July, until the last day of trading on 22 July.

Vard Holdings : 2Q underwater on woes in Brazil (CIMB)

Vard Holdings
Current S$0.87
Target S$0.89
2Q underwater on woes in Brazil.

 As flagged, Vard’s 2Q13 is a quarter to forget. Goodwill write-down and tax losses for the Niteroi yard in Brazil led to a NOK28.3m loss, much worse against our expected profit of NOK50m.

1H13 core profit accounted for 31% of our FY13 estimate. Despite our 14-22% EPS downgrades for FY13-15, we upgrade Vard from trading sell to Neutral as we believe the 23% share price fall since its profit guidance has priced in its Brazilian woes. We lower our target price, now based on 9x CY14 P/E, a 10% premium over its post-IPO mean. We previously applied 9x to CY13 EPS, expecting investors to focus on the near term.

Fortune REIT : A stable income deliverer; expect a healthy set of 1H13 results (SCB)

Fortune REIT
PRICE as of 9 Jul 2013 HKD 6.81
PRICE TARGET HKD 8.20
A stable income deliverer; expect a healthy set of 1H13 results

We expect Fortune REIT (Fortune) to post a healthy set of 1H13 results on Monday, 15 July, and forecast a DPU of HKD 0.175 (+10.6% YoY).

We believe 2Q13 rental reversions remained healthy (in the mid-teens), after the robust 19.5% in 1Q13. We note reversions are seasonally slower in 2Q-3Q.

Vard Holdings : Lack of visibility clouds outlook (DBSV)

Vard Holdings Ltd:
HOLD S$0.865
Lack of visibility clouds outlook;
Price Target : 12-Month S$ 0.88 (Prev S$ 1.16)

•Weak results in 2Q, in line with profit warning
•Cost overruns at both Brazil yards; margins may not recover as early as we had previously expected
•Cut FY13/14 earnings by another 39%/ 19%
•Maintain HOLD with lower TP of S$0.88

First red ink since listing. 2Q13 results were very weak as expected, with Vard recording a net loss of NOK20m – including a NOK70m impairment charge to wipe out the remaining goodwill related to the Niteroi yard in Brazil – despite 7% q-o-q growth in revenues to NOK2.9bn.

SPH REIT : Initial Highlights (UOBKH)

SPH REIT : Initial Highlights
Good morning, SPH REIT filed their preliminary prospectus yesterday evening. Below are some initial highlights from the prospectus.

ISSUE STATISTICS 

Offer Size: 308.884m new shares 
(assuming over-allotment is not exercised) 
  Public Tranche – 83.982m shares
 
  Placement Tranche –224.902m shares
 
Offering Price: S$0.85 – S$0.90
 
NAV per share (post IPO): S$0.89
 
Market Cap (post-IPO): S$2,250.9m (based on Maximum Offer Price S$0.90)
Lead Manager: Credit Suisse, DBS, OCBC Bank
 
Co-leads: CIMB, Nomura
 

曾淵滄專欄12.07.13:下限言論炒起A股

前日內地股市突然急升,收市後上網查有關新聞,甚麼也查不到,昨日早上閱報,才見到一小段有關總理李克強講話的報道,其中最關鍵的幾句是:「宏觀調控需立足當前,着眼長遠使經濟處於合理區間,經濟增長率就業水平等不滑出下限。」

關鍵中的關鍵是「下限」兩個字,即錢荒、放火燒垃圾、緊縮銀根等行為,都有個「下限」,之前我已多次說過,周小川一邊放火,一邊告訴大家他已準備了水,隨時救火,問題只是幾時救火?現在,李克強提出「下限」的講法,於是投資者紛紛估計「下限」已經出現了,隨即飛身撲入股市,結果滬綜指兩日上升5.5%,港股自然也跟着反彈,但過去兩日A股反彈力度遠超港股,相信不是一般散戶與基金所為,而是有強力背景的國家財團在推動。

Maybank Research says Hua Yang is “hot”

Maybank Research says Hua Yang is “hot”

KUALA LUMPUR: Maybank Research is picking Hua Yang Berhad, a housing developer specialising in homes costing under RM500,000, as its “hot stock” pick with a target price of RM3.73 from its current trading price of around RM3.03.

It said on top of sound management and solid recent performance, Hua Yang was unlikely to be affected by the credit-tightening measures introduced by Bank Negara as it was in the affordable property segment.

In fact, it stood to benefit from Budget 2013 due to improvements expected to be made to the My First Home Scheme.

Ascendas REIT: Valuations more reasonable post correction (CS)

Ascendas REIT
Upgrade to NEUTRAL
Price (09 Jul 13 , S$) 2.20
TP (prev. TP S$) 2.48 (2.48)
Valuations more reasonable post correction, but business park exposure still at risk, in our view

● AREIT has been one of the worst performers within the SREITs sector with the recent sell-off, down 20% since end April (14% relative). With now 13% potential upside to our S$2.48 TP, we upgrade AREIT from an Underperform to NEUTRAL reflecting the more reasonable risk-reward at current levels.

IOI Properties proposes 2.162b share distribution

IOI Properties proposes 2.162b share distribution
2013/07/12
KUALA LUMPUR: IOI Properties Group Bhd, which is seeking a relisting on Bursa Malaysia, has proposed the distribution of 2.162 billion of its shares held by its parent IOI Corp Bhd.

According to its draft prospectus posted on the Securities Commission website yesterday, the distribution-in-specie would be on the basis of one IOI Properties share for every three IOI Corp shares.

IOI Properties said it would not be raising any funds from the listing exercise as it would not be issuing any new shares.

Singapore REITs Sector : Has the sector been oversold? (CS)

Singapore REITs Sector
New report: Has the sector been oversold?

● In light of recent sell-offs, we stress-tested 11 S-REITs. Conclusions: (1) Stress-testing DDM for cost of equity—if the risk-free rate rises 100 bp (from our 3% assumption), target prices would be c.11-16% lower. (2) DPU would be hit 4-14%, depending on gearing, if interest rates rise 100 bp in T+3 (CDLHT, AREIT, CMT least impacted). (3) MCT and KREIT are most at risk, if cap rates expand in a rising interest rate cycle due to higher LTVs.

● We believe S-REITs’ share prices have sufficiently corrected to factor in the higher cost of equity currently and the conclusions of our stress-test suggest that parts of the sector have been oversold.

股市見底 或僅技術反彈?

股市見底 或僅技術反彈?
http://paper.wenweipo.com   [2013-07-12]

香港文匯報訊(記者 周紹基)國務院總理李克強近日談及宏觀調控,首次提出「增長率、就業保下限」,不少分析認為,內地政策可能轉向,投資者憧憬內地會有溫和刺激經濟政策出台,加上美聯儲局主席伯南克,又「恰巧」地放風指可能會延續QE政策,提振了昨日的A股及港股投資氣氛,股市見底或僅技術反彈?

恒指可上望21630點
 騰祺基金管理投資管理董事沈慶洪認為,投資者雖熱炒內地會出手救經濟,但內地目前只有「出口術」,在未有實質措施出台前,不宜過分樂觀。他表示,內地下周一將公布第二季宏觀經濟數據,可能數據不甚樂觀,故預先向市場傳達訊息。事實上,李克強的言論也可能因內地出口數據疲弱而作如此回應,估計中央不會推行大量的刺激政策,甚至連調減存款準備金率也不會。

填海工程推高宏洋盈利估值

(吉隆坡11日讯)分析员看好宏洋控股(BENALEC,5190,主板建筑股)在丹绒比艾(Tanjung Piai)和柔佛边佳兰(Pengerang)的填海工程,將带动该公司的盈利和估值。同时,隨著柔佛產业价格大涨,將让宏洋控股从中受惠。

宏洋控股週三宣布,其独资子公司——Heritage Land私人有限公司,以5430万令吉(每平方尺30令吉),脱售8片马六甲总面积16.8公顷的土地。

肯纳格投行分析员指出,是项土地脱售在预料之中。

Thursday, July 11, 2013

鵬達進軍印尼受看好

鵬達進軍印尼受看好
Created 07/11/2013 - 17:53
(吉隆坡11日訊)鵬達集團(PANTECH,5125,主板貿服組)獲印尼國營石油公司頒發合約訂單,市場分析員認為這是進軍印尼市場的良好開端,有助推動未來業務。

肯納格研究指出,鵬達昨日宣佈旗下獨資子公司獲得印尼國營石油公司Pertamina頒發一項總值150萬美元(約480萬令吉)合約是個好開端,以為後者供應感應長彎管,預料將在2014年次季交貨。

肯納格看好上述發展,相信鵬達將從印尼國營石油公司取得更多工程合約。由於上述工程盈利將在2014財政年才入賬,而營收及淨利僅佔0.7%,該行維持較早時的淨利預測。

Pantech - Breaking Into Indonesia’s O&G Sector

Pantech -
Price Target:1.43
Last Price:0.995
Breaking Into Indonesia’s O&G Sector

Pantech  (PGHB)  announced  on  Bursa  Malaysia  yesterday  that  it  has secured a USD1.5m (MYR4.8m) contract to supply induction long bends to  Indonesia’s  state-owned O&G  corporation  Pertamina  in  2QFY14.  We see  this  opening  up  opportunities  for  PGHB  to  make  inroads  into Indonesia.  As  we  are  still  upbeat  on  the  company’s future  outlook,  we eiterate our BUY recommendation, with our FV unchanged at MYR1.43. At single-digit P/E, PGHB provides a cheap exposure to O&G play.  

Benalec Holdings - RM54m Melaka land sale

Benalec Holdings -
Price Target:2.01
Last Price:1.38
RM54m Melaka land sale

News    Yesterday, Benalec announced that its wholly-owned subsidiary Heritage Land Sdn Bhd has entered into a sale and purchase agreement with Highbond Capital Sdn Bhd and Gigayear Revenue Sdn Bhd for the disposal of 8 pieces of leasehold land in Klebang, Melaka for a total consideration of RM54.3m.

Comments    We were not surprised by the sale as we had already anticipated 60 acres of land sale by Benalec in FY14.

金群利集团 48亿产业待发展

金群利集团 48亿产业待发展
Created 07/11/2013 - 11:43
【目标价:2.77令吉】

最新进展:

金群利集团(MATRIX,5236,主板产业股)以1亿680万令吉,增购两块共431英亩的土地,扩大旗下综合城镇发展计划的规模。

这两块土地与公司旗下位于森州芙蓉的达城(Bandar Sri Sendayan)发展计划毗邻。增购土地后,达城未推出产业计划发展总值(GDV)为48亿令吉,可持续为金群利集团贡献盈利至2022年。

Mapletree Industrial Trust : Increasingly attractive risk-reward (CS)

Mapletree Industrial Trust
Upgrade to OUTPERFORM
Price (09 Jul 13, S$) 1.32
TP (prev. TP S$) 1.67 (1.70)
Increasingly attractive risk-reward

● Among the industrial REITs, MINT has been the third worst performer, down 16% since end-April. We believe valuations are looking attractive. We upgrade MINT from Neutral to OUTPERFORM after stress-testing our DDM and rent assumptions.

● Vacancy concerns at Signature is not as bad as the market perceives, with the major tenant, CS (4.5% of gross rental income), vacating in 2H13. About 10% of the space has already been back-filled.

Overseas Union Enterprise : Lodges Preliminary Prospectus For OUE Hospitality Trust (UOBKH)

Overseas Union Enterprise
Share Price S$2.85
Target Price S$3.63
Lodges Preliminary Prospectus For OUE Hospitality Trust

OUE is looking to raise S$600m-675m with the IPO of OUEHT which will offer a forward yield of 7.3-7.5%. By retaining a larger 43-48% stake in OUEHT, OUE will better align with new OUEHT unitholders, while the potential special dividend of 5-8% is still attractive. Maintain BUY with an unchanged target price of S$3.63/share which is pegged at a 20% discount to our RNAV of S$4.54/share.

Parkson Retail Group : The worst may not be over (CIMB)

Parkson Retail Group
3368 HK / 3368.HK
Current HK$2.98
Target HK$2.60
The worst may not be over

 We expect negative SSSG for Parkson in 2H13 for three reasons 1) the anti-corruption campaign which could drag down sales in Beijing and Shanghai, 2) Parkson’s ageing store portfolio and fierce competition in key markets, and 3) lack of large mall-like projects in the pipeline.

For 1H13, we estimate negative SSSG and a 17% yoy earnings drop to Rmb435m. We cut our FY13-15 EPS forecasts by 8-9%and reduce our CY14 P/E from 8x to 7x, based on the average of its close peers, Maoye and NWDS. This lowers our target price to HK$2.60.Investor confidence could be dented by the recent resignation of the CFO even though this is not a surprise to some investors. Maintain Underperform.

S-REITs: Time to selectively buy? (CS)


● On an absolute basis, most S-REITs are still above levels they were at in January 2012; when the rally started. Relative to the STI, REITS such as CDLHT & CMT have more than given up gains, while FCT, MINT and A-REIT are less than 10% ahead. S-REIT EPS in general have kept pace with the STI and MSCI SG.

● Other than in 2013, REITS (and telecoms, staples) have had low market Beta. Earnings volatility (other than for the GFC) has also been amongst the lowest in the market. Once the near-term sell off completes, S-REITs should revert to being defensives—which tend to be attractive during periods of regional growth concerns.

Analysing The Impact Of US Dollar And Yen Volatility (UOBKH)

Analysing The Impact Of US Dollar And Yen Volatility
We highlight companies and sectors that could be impacted by the recent trend reversal of the yen and US dollar vs Singapore dollar.

What’s New
• Highlighting the impact of currency volatility. Over the past several months, the yen and US dollar had a slight trend reversal against the Singapore dollar, with the yen strengthening 4.1% against the Singapore dollar and US dollar, firming 4.8% against the Singapore dollar. This report highlights sectors and companies that could be impacted by the fluctuation of the two currencies.

Ascendas REIT: Under-rated industrial blue chip (OCBC)

Ascendas REIT:
Fair value S$2.45
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.140
versus: Current price S$2.21

Under-rated industrial blue chip
• Value emerges amid recent sell-off
• DPU and book value to remain stable
• Completed investments to add to income

We are turning positive on Ascendas REIT (A-REIT). Its unit price has fallen by 22.7% from its peak of S$2.86 on 15 Apr, due partly to concerns on an early tapering of US Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing programme and an accompanying hike in interest rates.

Midas Holdings: Seeking more contract wins (OCBC)

Midas Holdings:
Fair value S$0.54
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.005
versus: Current price S$0.44

Seeking more contract wins
• Recently clinched CNY44.3m metro order
• Healthy metro industry news flow
• New high-speed railway tenders still uncertain

Midas Holdings (Midas) recently clinched a CNY44.3m metro contract, thus bringing total YTD order wins to ~CNY423.2m. Looking ahead, Midas will continue to strive for potential new metro and international railway contract wins of ~CNY380-580m for the rest of 2013.

Malaysia Building Society - Excellent opportunity to buy

Malaysia Building Society -
Price Target:3.70
Last Price:2.98
Excellent opportunity to buy

-  We are maintaining our buy rating on Malaysia Building Society Bhd (MBSB), with a lower fair value of RM3.70/share (from RM3.90 previously) (cum basis) or RM2.23/share (from RM2.30) on ex-rights price basis. Our earnings forecasts and fair value already reflect a possible rights issue, and is fully diluted for the previous warrants issue in FY11. Based on a fullydiluted ROE (for previous warrants and potential imminent rights issue) of 20.0% (from 20.3% previously), we peg the fair P/BV at 1.99x (from 2.0x previously).

曾淵滄專欄11.07.13:阿爺不停複製香港

昨日A股突然大幅反彈,滬綜指又回到2000點之上,大升2.2%,連日來受累於A股的港股自然也趁勢回升,但升幅卻比不上A股。A股為甚麼反彈?我於收市後上網查看新聞,都找不到倪端。是仍未宣佈的好消息?還是跌得太殘的自然反應?因為沒有足以支持股市大反彈的訊息,短炒策略仍然是旁觀。

有外電報道中國政府可能讓LME在上海設立期貨商品倉,這就可以推動實貨交收的期貨買賣,LME一旦可以打入中國市場,前途無限,其母公司港交所(388)自然也得益。為了方便進入中國大陸市場,我建議港交所將LME的51%股權以成本價出讓給上海市政府或上海交易所,港交所不必當控股者,只需要當投資者,完成替中國政府收購LME的責任。

Vard Holdings MANAGEMENT REPLY: Will troubled Brazil drag down Q2 profit?

8/7/2013 – Vard Holdings, formerly known as STX OSV, warns it expects Q2 FY13 profit to be lower than current consensus analyst estimates.

This is due to higher than expected cost overruns at its Niteroi yard as well as higher than expected start-up costs at its new yard, Promar.

Vard will now focus on stabilising the operations in Niteroi and ramp up its new yard.

OSK Research maintained its BUY rating with a target price of S$1.69.

Cambridge Industrial Trust: Divestment unlocks value and frees up capital for growth (SCB)

Cambridge Industrial Trust
PRICE as of 8 Jul 2013 SGD 0.71
PRICE TARGET SGD 0.82
Divestment unlocks value and frees up capital for growth

Cambridge Industrial Trust (CREIT) announced the sale of its stake in 63 Hillview Avenue for SGD 141mn.

We believe the sale is a positive surprise for the market.

We continue to expect CREIT to use the sale proceeds for acquisitions and redevelopments at c.7% NPI yield.

Wednesday, July 10, 2013

中東局勢緊張,油價率先噴出反應?



新興市場大失血‧馬股成避風港

新興市場大失血‧馬股成避風港
Created 07/10/2013 - 17:26
(吉隆坡10日訊)在新興市場因經濟成長放緩和政治動亂引發資金大逃亡之際,馬股搖身一變成為股票投資者的避風港。

馬股波動水平最低

根據《彭博社》收集的資料顯示,自全球股市於5月21日見頂以來,馬股的歷史波動水平為9.9,這是45個先進和新興國家中的最低水平,相比標準普爾指數的波動水平為15。波動水平越低,顯示風險相應比較低。

僅僅在4個月前,由於大選逼近,市場擔心國陣政府推行的4千440億美元(1.41兆令吉)經濟轉型計劃可能出現變數,導致馬股淪為亞洲最大輸家。惟隨著首相納吉在5月5日的全國大選中勝出,規模4千780億美元(1.52兆令吉)的大馬股市,已是亞洲股市的佼佼者,馬股綜合指數至今已飆升4.2%。

CB 工业产品 新合约贡献3财年

CB 工业产品 新合约贡献3财年
Created 07/09/2013 - 11:14
目标价:3.42令吉

最新进展

CB工业产品(CBIP,7076,主板工业产品股)持有51%的子公司AVP工程有限公司宣布,获房屋及地方政府部颁发总值1亿3680万令吉合约。

在这份合约下,AVP工程将为消防与拯救局提供、安装、测试和调试100辆拥有水箱的原动机车(prime mover vehicle)。

基础稳不受打房冲击 产业股或现反射卖压

基础稳不受打房冲击 产业股或现反射卖压
Created 07/10/2013 - 11:33
(吉隆坡9日讯)国家银行上周五宣布的打房措施,虽不足以冲击基础坚固的产业领域,但本地产业股料会出现一些反射卖压,而分析员认为,任何趋弱走势将是累积股票的机会。

联昌国际投资研究主管黄大任相信,国行将产业贷款期限限制于最长35年的措施,并不会严重冲击发展商的表现。

他说:“毫无疑问,此措施对产业领域不利,但我们相信,这只会温和地影响发展商的销售和盈利,因目前的平均产业贷款期限大部分少于35年(只有10%的产业贷款超过35年)。”

成本降低 宜增持手套股

成本降低 宜增持手套股
Created 07/10/2013 - 12:59
(吉隆坡9日讯)燃料成本转嫁机制明年落实,券商认为对手套业者有利,可减轻他们的成本负担。

大马银行证券研究表示,燃料费用(天然气及电费)目前占手套业总生产成本的10%至12%,燃料成本转嫁机制落实后,成本负担将减低。

在手套生产中,原料占总生产成本的50%至60%,劳工费用则占11%,各生产成本价格增加,尤其是早前闹得沸沸扬扬的最低薪金制度,已加重业者的生产支出。

美QE 退场外资撤离 区域外储大跌大马影响微

美QE 退场外资撤离 区域外储大跌大马影响微
Created 07/10/2013 - 08:28
(吉隆坡9日讯)联储局缩减购债规模的消息,促使外资在5、6月纷纷撤离新兴市场,本区域外汇储备金亦受冲击而下滑,大马凭借稳健基本面受挫程度较小,不过印度和印尼“双印”的跌幅却高达百亿美元!

不过,经济学家指出,外资撤离的趋势料短期难消,因此,预计我国储备金仍有下跌的风险,若是7月数据再有大幅滑落,不排除下调年杪目标。

从5月开始,联储局或将收窄每月850亿美元购债规模的消息开始尘嚣甚上,新兴市场可见外资大量流出,连带影响这些区域的外汇储备金跟着下滑。

Malaysian Stocks First From Worst on Lowest Volatility

Malaysian Stocks First From Worst on Lowest Volatility
By Weiyi Lim & Ian Sayson - Jul 10, 2013

At a time when slowing economic growth and political protests from Brazil to Turkey are spurring capital flight from emerging markets, Malaysia has turned into a refuge for equity investors.

The FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI Index (KLCI) was the biggest loser in Asia just four months ago as the closest elections in 55 years threatened the ruling coalition’s plans to spend $444 billion on infrastructure. Now the $478 billion stock market is the region’s best performer, after Prime Minister Najib Razak’s May 5 poll victory sparked a 4.2 percent rally in the KLCI index.

Singapore Press Holdings: Another Step Closer to REIT IPO (MKE)

Singapore Press Holdings
Buy(unchanged)
Share price: SGD4.26
Target price: SGD4.52 (from SGD4.95 )
Another Step Closer to REIT IPO

SPH REIT filed preliminary prospectus with MAS yesterday after market closed. Despite the recent market uncertainty, it seems to us that SPH is getting closer to a successful spinoff. We maintain our view that SPH REIT can take off soon (probably in August) and we believe that such a spinoff could benefit SPH shareholders in the long term. However, due to the rising interest rates of Singapore government bonds, we adjust our risk free rate assumption in our DCF valuation to 3% from 1.3% before. Maintain BUY but lower TP to SGD4.52.

Singapore Debt Levels Raise Vulnerabilities (Citi)

Singapore
Debt Levels Raise Vulnerabilities

 Wobbles from rebalancing phase — Singapore’s STI has lost 1% ytd, making its performance the worst in Asean. Reasons include fear of Fed tapering its QE program later in the year as well as slower growth and higher costs while the growth model is rebalanced to be more inclusive. The STI is now just 6% above 14.2x PE (-0.5SD historical mean or 3000 points), which we believe is a good support level assuming no regional financial contagion breaks out.

Tat Hong: Australia presents earnings risks (DBSV)

Tat Hong:
BUY S$1.18; TAT SP
Australia presents earnings risks;
Price Target : 12-month S$ 1.43 (Prev S$ 1.80)

•Economic situation in Australia presents downside risk to our earnings
•Poor mining, infrastructure spending outlook and weak AUD hamper earnings growth
•Cut FY14F/FY15F earnings by 20%/21%
•Maintain BUY with lower TP S$1.43

Potential earnings downside in 1Q14F. We see two potential downside risks to earnings for the coming quarter in weaker AUD and slower mining and infrastructure spending in Australia.  2H13 revenues from Australia fell 12% y-o-y, affected by a slowdown in mining and infrastructure spending.  These could result in slower equipment sales/rental and translation losses for 1Q14F.

Telecommunications – Malaysia: Position For LTE Excitement Next Year (UOBKH)

Telecommunications – Malaysia
Position For LTE Excitement Next Year
We upgrade the telco sector to OVERWEIGHT and upgrade Axiata to BUY from HOLD previously. The rollout of LTE networks and increasing number of LTE handsets offer opportunities to grow data revenues. Supported by stable cash flows, Digi and Maxis offer 5% and 6% net dividend yields respectively, while Axiata wins investors over with either higher earnings from consolidation overseas or from higher dividends. BUY Digi (top pick) and Axiata.

羅傑斯:今世不買金融股

【人物專訪】

金融市場動盪常見,又有幾多人敢評金融業將走向沒落?《街頭智慧》作者、人稱商品大王的羅傑斯預言,大量金融才俊(俗稱賓架)將會丟掉飯碗,金融業將失去光環,寄語準大學生選科要揀農務系,不要讀金融系;準畢業生不要投身金融業,更表示在未來數十年不會沾手金融股。
記者董曉沂新加坡報道

羅傑斯接受本報專訪時坦言,金融業在80及90年代曾經相當輝煌,但他預期金融業的光環即將完結。對於金融市場的未來,羅傑斯直言:「金融機構要蝕錢,大學畢業生難以投身職場,金融才俊會被炒,相信數年後情況會變得更差。」

Shipyard - China: Cash Is King (UOBKH)

Shipyard - China
Cash Is King
Chinese shipyards have been suffering from a very prolonged difficult period given three major challenges: a) massive delivery slippage, b) further worsening payment terms, and c) recent tight liquidity, all of which involve cash flow. Unless tight liquidity conditions see a substantial improvement in China, all shipyards will face heavy cash pressure. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT. Like YZJ, which has a strong balance sheet. Maintain SELL on RSHI, GSI and COS.

Hutchison Port Holdings Trust: Tough times won't last long (DBSV)

Hutchison Port Holdings Trust:
BUY US$0.745;
Tough times won't last long;
Price Target : 12-Month US$ 0.82 (Prev US$ 0.87)

•HK volumes below par YTD, but the worst is over and look forward to better data
•Revised down FY13/14F DPU by 8%/6% given lower volume estimates
•1H13 DPU could be around 2UScts, should improve in 2H13 in line with trade flows
•Weaker DPU priced in; Maintain BUY with lower TP of US$0.82

Can only get better from here.  Volume growth at the Trust’s HIT terminals in HK has been below par so far in FY13, with the port workers’ strike in April adding to the woes. HIT volumes could be down more than 10% y-o-y in 2Q13, with the high base in 1H12 – arising from higher transhipment activities between newly formed liner alliance partners – further skewing the comparison.

曾淵滄專欄 10.07.13:瘋狂借外債埋炸彈

恒指升跌,依然被A股拉着走,而A股的升跌也全無方向可言。

有上市企業公開宣佈今後將改變借貸方式,增加外債比例,如果有大量企業這樣做,對中國金融業、人民幣將來的發展是很危險的。當年亞洲金融風暴,以及巴西、墨西哥、阿根廷的金融危機,皆是因為過度借外債而引起的。企業之所以借外債,就是因為內債的利率高,外債利率低,而本身的貨幣則處於強勢或宣稱與美元掛鈎。一旦本身貨幣兌美元的滙價,遭國際大鱷狙擊而守不住,借外滙的企業就須搶購美元以減少滙率損失,進一步拖垮本國貨幣。

今日,人民幣的利率過高,沒關係的民企更是連借錢也困難,紛紛設法借美元,這為將來埋下一顆計時炸彈,也為將來人民幣自由兌換時帶來巨大的被狙擊誘因。當然,我所說的是長遠的未來風險,短期而言,人民幣不能自由兌換,自然也沒有所謂受狙擊風險。短期而言,借外債的確可以節省利率成本。

周大福銷售爆升63%

【本報訊】中國大媽過去3個月的搶金行動認真強勁,周大福(1929)公佈4至6月份的首季營運數據,整體生意按年勁升63%,當中黃金產品的同店銷售更高達78%,超乎市場預期。周大福董事總經理黃紹基坦言,搶金效應是會逐步消退,但市場整體消費信心正在改善,料未來就算無大規模搶金浪潮,在公司催谷平均消費、提升毛利率的情況下,生意仍會向好。

搶金潮料逐步減退
周大福昨公佈營運數據前,收報8.11元,升0.5%。

周大福4至6月份銷售爆升63%,其中港澳地區同店勁升68%,內地同店亦增32%。不過,由於黃金產品的毛利率較珠寶為低,期內黃金銷售比重由去年同期的58%,急升至現時69%,故拖低公司整體毛利率達3個百分點。

Suntec REIT :Reward Awaits The Patient Investor (MKE)

Suntec REIT
Buy (unchanged)
Share price: SGD1.565
Target price: SGD1.75 (from SGD1.95)
Reward Awaits The Patient Investor

2Q13 DPU likely down. Suntec’s 2Q13 DPU is likely to be lackluster, dragged down by Suntec City Mall’s (SCM) ongoing renovation works. We estimate that the largest dip on FY13 DPU will occur in both 1Q & 2Q13, when Phase 1 new tenants have yet to start paying rentals and Phase 2 old tenants are being vacated for the AEI. We noted that many Phase 1 tenants (H&M, Uniqlo, etc.) have begun operations in Jun, but they are likely to be still on rent-free periods (1-2 mths). We forecast 2Q13 DPU at 2.23 SG-cts (flat QoQ; -5.5% YoY) and FY13 DPU at 9.23 SG-cts. (-2% YoY).

Cambridge Industrial Trust: Moving to larger projects (DBSV)

Cambridge Industrial Trust:
HOLD S$0.73 (Downgrade from BUY);
Moving to larger projects;
Price Target : 12-Month S$ 0.78 (Prev S$ 0.93)

•Divesting Lam Soon Industrial Building at 28% above book value
•Not the optimal sale scenario but deployment of proceeds to be accretive
•TP adjusted S$0.78 as we revert to DCF valuation;  Reduce to HOLD

Divesting Lam Soon Industrial Building.  Cambridge Industrial Trust (CREIT) announced that it is proposing to divest Lam Soon Industrial Building (or 63 Hillview Avenue) for S$140.8m. The proposed selling price represents CREIT’s 69.4% stake in the strata share value of the property (97 out of 154 free freehold strata units) and is a 28% premium over the latest valued book value. The exit yield is estimated to be c2.3%. The buyer is QF Properties Pte Ltd which is a JV set up by Enviro-Hub Holdings Ltd (listed on SGX) and BS Capital, a wholly owned company of its chairman, Mr Raymond Ng.

Tuesday, July 9, 2013

Best-ranked bank OCBC cautions on China crunch

Best-ranked bank OCBC cautions on China crunch
WRITTEN BY BLOOMBERG  
TUESDAY, 09 JULY 2013 18:16

Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp., Southeast Asia’s second-largest lender, says banks doing business in China will have to be more prudent with liquidity to weather any future crises.

The credit crunch that started in mid-June is temporary and caught some lenders by surprise, OCBC Chief Executive Officer Samuel N. Tsien, 58, said in a Bloomberg Television interview with Haslinda Amin in Singapore yesterday.

SPH REIT to raise up to $504mil in IPO

WRITTEN BY BLOOMBERG  
TUESDAY, 09 JULY 2013 18:38

Singapore Press Holdings, the newspaper publisher that owns the Paragon mall along the city’s shopping belt, is seeking to raise as much as $504 million in an initial stock sale of its retail assets.

The real estate investment trust is offering 559.9 million shares at between 85 cents to 90 cents, according to a preliminary prospectus filed today with the city-state’s regulator. The offer includes an allotment of 251 million units to cornerstone investors including Great Eastern Life Assurance Co. and Morgan Stanley Investment Management Co., according to the document.

Inari Amertron says acquisition will boost earnings

Inari Amertron says acquisition will boost earnings

BY LIZ LEE
LIZLEE@THESTAR.COM.MY

KUALA LUMPUR: Inari Amertron Bhd believes its successful acquisition of Amertron Inc (Global) Ltd will add US$100mil (RM321mil) to its earnings in the financial year ending June 30, 2014 (FY14) based on its enlarged capacity.

Vice chairman Tan Seng Chuan said with Amertron on board, the group has more than doubled its manufacturing capacity, with its floor space increasing to 400,000 sq ft and its staff headcount from 1,500 to 4,600.

Largest 10 construction stocks averaged 15.5% gain ytd: SGX Gateway

Largest 10 construction stocks averaged 15.5% gain ytd: SGX Gateway
WRITTEN BY THE EDGE  
TUESDAY, 09 JULY 2013

The largest 10 stocks grouped to Constructions & Materials averaged a 15.5% gain in the year-to-date, says SGX in a My Gateway update email which was sent to subscribers on Jul 8.

The Constructions & Materials supersector is one of just two supersectors that make up the large group of stocks known as Industrials, according to the Industry Classification Benchmark (ICB). Within the Constructions & Materials Sector, focus of a company is either:
Building Materials & Fixtures, i.e. producers of materials used in the construction and refurbishment of buildings and structures; or

APTT’s yield alluring, but are the risks justifiable? (AM)

APTT’s yield alluring, but are the risks justifiable?
Asian Pay Television Trust (APTT), which is structured as a business trust, is focused on pay-TV businesses through its seed asset Taiwan Broadband Communications (TBC) Group. APTT distributes semi-annually and its first distribution per unit is guided to be 4.8 cents that is payable in September/October 2013. Since its debut on 29 May 2013 at an IPO price of S$0.97, APTT’s share price has declined by about 12.9%. We DO NOT have a ratingon APTT. At its current price of S$0.845, this leads us to consider whether investors are overpricing in the risks pertaining to APTT’s business. In today’s quick take, we therefore seek to explore some of the key investor concerns.

Jim Rogers Correctly Predicted Gold Would Fall To $1200, And Now He Thinks It Could Go As Low As $900

Jim Rogers Correctly Predicted Gold Would Fall To $1200, And Now He Thinks It Could Go As Low As $900
MAMTA BADKAR
JUL. 6, 2013

The price of gold peaked at just over $1,900 per ounce in the fall of 2011.

And it was right around that time that commodities guru Jim Rogers began warning investors that the yellow metal could hit a low of $1,200 before the sell-off was over.

He was right.

Gold prices entered a bear market (down 20% from its high) in April. And on June 27, they touched $1,200.

中國A股路在何方?

中國A股路在何方?
http://paper.wenweipo.com   [2013-07-09]    
時富金融策略師 黎智凱
 日前中國國務院公佈《關於金融支持經濟結構調整和轉型升級的指導意見》,以「金融服務實體經濟」為指導,以「用好增量、盤活存量」為核心。所謂的「盤活存量」十項重點措施包括:發揮貨幣政策工具的引導作用;創新外匯儲備運用;探索發行企業優先股;定向開展重組企業的併購貸款;探索發展併購投資基金;擴大不良貸款處置自主權;逐步推進信貸資產證券化常規化發展;拓寬保險資金運用範圍;引導銀行理財產品對接實體項目;擴大民間資本進入金融業。

 在筆者看來,經濟面臨 「結構性矛盾」,「資金分佈不合理」,是本次《意見》出台的最重要背景。正是這個結構性矛盾,使大量收入、資源沉積在少數人和部門手裡,無法形成現實的消費與投資。使大量的資金放在不該放的地方,金融脫離了實體經濟。但是要觸動深層次的「利益」靈魂,要依靠財稅體制改革調結構才是正道,但因涉及到多方利益集團,其過程是艱辛的。就像當下A股市場一樣,暴雨式的跌跌不休,IPO還將繼續。

股市縱橫:A50中國尋底後可吸納

股市縱橫:A50中國尋底後可吸納
http://paper.wenweipo.com   [2013-07-09]

韋君
 內地股市前周受資金流動性緊張,以及上海銀行同業拆息隔夜息率抽升下,滬綜指一度跌至1,849點的四年多低位,而隨著人民銀行對紓緩資金流動性表態後,港股及A股都現較佳反彈的行情,滬綜指更曾重返2,000點之上。不過,A股市場再傳出IPO短期重啟,拖累當地股市昨再度急挫,上證綜指收報1,958點,跌2.44%。

 儘管港股及內地股市近期表現都欠方向,不過,野村證券發表資金流報告指出,全球基金在近幾周大量沽售新興市場股份後,於7月的首一周,已轉為淨買入,淨流入的資金為69億美元,前周則淨流出147億美元。在各類互惠基金中,香港基金的淨流出按周減少,由前周的2.74億美元降至5,400萬美元,中國基金的資金淨流出也由5.13億美元降至2.23億美元。

Press Metal - Update on the Mukah plant shutdown

Press Metal -
Price Target:3.60
Last Price:2.25
Update on the Mukah plant shutdown

- Our checks with management indicate that Press Metal Bhd’s Mukah plant could be shut down for 3-6 months depending on the severity of the damage caused by the power outage last week (June 27).

- We were told that preliminary investigations have already been initiated but it would take some time before the insurers could ascertain the full impact and consequence of the damage.

- Nevertheless, management said it had adequate insurance coverage and could utilise the extra capacity at its Samalaju plant to ensure delivery to its affected customers. The Samalaju plant is currently being ramped up to its full capacity (320,000 tonnes p.a. vs. Mukah’s 120,000 tonnes p.a.).

Del Monte Pacific: Clear growth story (BBSV)

Del Monte Pacific:
BUY S$0.79;
Clear growth story;
Price Target : 12-Month S$ 0.97

•Branded consumer play, with 60% of revenues from the Philippines
•Clear growth drivers in place to deliver a projected CAGR of 25% (FY12- 15F)
•Looking to manage loan maturities in view of  potentially higher interest rates
•Maintain BUY, and S$0.97 TP

Branded Philippines consumer play.  We see DMPL as a key branded consumer play with 60% revenue from Philippines with clear growth drivers in place, supported by its established brands. This, in our view, was the key message to about 40 institutional investors DMPL met in a day of meetings during our Pulse of Asia conference recently.

Viz Branz Limited – Finally, a GO (OCBC)

Viz Branz Limited –
Offer price S$0.78
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.000
versus: Current price S$0.72

Finally, a GO
• Offer of S$0.78/share
• No counter-offer expected
• Shareholders should ACCEPT OFFER

Viz Branz finally announced that its current CEO will launch a general offer for the company at S$0.78/share, which represents a 15.5% premium over the one-month weighted average trading price. The CEO already has a majority stake of 58.1% after acquiring his father’s 38.3% share, so Lam Soon is not expected to launch a counter-offer. As the offer price is above with our long-stated target price of S$0.74, we deem the offer to be fair and urge investors to ACCEPT THE OFFER. Furthermore, the CEO intends to take Viz Branz private and delist from SGX, which would result in limited upside and recourse for minority shareholders going forward.

Tat Hong : Fear not, for it is not apocalypse (CIMB)

Tat Hong Holdings
Current S$1.19
Target S$1.75
Fear not, for it is not apocalypse


 TAT’s recent share-price weakness is reminiscent of its mid-Apr fall. But this time around, we believe sentiment is the cause. Its crane-rental division is still strong in all key markets, though there is some translation impact from its Australia-barricaded distribution division.

We conservatively lower our FY14-16EPS by 2-4% for lower Australian contributions from A$ weakness. Accordingly, we lower our target price, still at11x CY14 P/E (its 5-year average forward P/E). Reiterate Outperform with strong Asian operations still its main catalyst while potential M&As could provide icing on the cake.

Singapore Press Holdings : Back To Basics (UOBKH)

Singapore Press Holdings
Share Price S$4.20
Target Price S$4.25
Back To Basics

SPH REIT listing is on hold, pending better market conditions. Back to basics, 2QFY13 advertising revenue contraction is likely to be smaller than 2QFY13’s 9.3% yoy. We lower our target price from S$4.50 to S$4.25 because of a higher DCF discount rate as we have raised our risk-free rate by 80bp. Maintain HOLD with entry price at S$4.00 or below.

What’s New
• SPH REIT IPO is temporarily on hold. In view of the currrent poor sentiments on REITs, Singapore Press Holdings (SPH) said it continues “to monitor market conditions and will make an announcement at the appropriate time”.

COSCO Corp (Singapore): Don’t catch a falling knife (OCBC)

COSCO Corp (Singapore):
Fair value S$0.60
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.005
versus: Current price S$0.75

Don’t catch a falling knife
• Uncertain outlook
• Vulnerable to a credit squeeze
• Maintain SELL; Lower FV of S$0.60

COSCO Corp (Singapore)’s share price has fallen by about 14% since our last update (“Downgrade to Sell – Missed Expectations”, 6/5/2013) such that it is close to our previous S$0.76 FV. However, we do not think it is time to upgrade our call. The macro environment is looking increasingly gloomy. In China, an unexpected credit squeeze in the Chinese interbank market raised concerns over the fragility of the Chinese banking system.

曾淵滄專欄 09.07.13:航運業未走出寒冬

恒指在過去幾個交易日,波幅很大,賭味很重,早上最大跌幅達610點,收市時收復部份失地,跌272點,早上恒指成份股全面下跌,收市時有五隻股份逆市上升,有了上周急跌後迅速反彈的經驗,因此昨日急跌600點後,就有人趁低吸納。

我的新愛股英達公路(6888)上市至今僅8個交易日,股價比上市價高出19%,不是一上市就出現炒作,而是穩步向上。我曾經說過英達主席施偉斌是我的學生,我也買入這隻股票,不過我不會以錢來表達支持,我自己的的確確研究過這家企業的前景,有信心才買。英達上市前,恒指跌至近月新低位,英達股價在上市後因大市表現差而跌破上市價不是不可能,但我買股票看長線,不會受股價短期的波幅而改變主意。

Neptune Orient Lines : Near-Term Earnings Weakness (MKE)

Neptune Orient Lines
Hold (from Buy)
Share price: SGD1.06
Target price: SGD1.25 (from SGD1.63)
Near-Term Earnings Weakness

Assume coverage with HOLD, TP: SGD1.25. Following a change of analyst, we assume coverage of NOL with a TP of SGD1.25 based on 1.1X FY13-14E BVPS (long-term average: 1.2X). Fundamentally, we believe that the container shipping industry is near its cyclical trough and expect better times ahead as the supply overhang improves over the next few years. However, we remain cautious in our recommendation as the prospect of a third consecutive year of losses (on our estimates) will likely weigh on sentiment towards the stock. Furthermore, we believe consensus expectations of a profitable FY13 will be missed.

Cambridge Industrial Trust : Lam Soon finally sold (CIMB)

Cambridge Industrial Trust
Current S$0.73
Target S$0.80
Lam Soon finally sold

 While the divestment price of Lam Soon may marginally disappoint investors looking forward to its sale as a residential site, the sale should still be a positive given the greater certainty of value-unlocking in its entirety and accretion from the use of divestment proceeds.

We raise DPUs, assuming that the proceeds will be used for debt repayment and the unwinding of previously-assumed equity fund raisings. Our DDM-based target price (discount rate: 8.3%) rises accordingly. Maintain Outperform on catalysts from accretive acquisitions and developments.

Monday, July 8, 2013

收購中國美昌股份 益納利美昌冀轉戰主要板

(吉隆坡8日訊)全面收購中國美昌股份(Amertron Global)100%股權后,半導體電子製造服務(EMS)供應商益納利(INARI,0166,創業板科技股)冀望,可于今年第4季從馬股創業板,晉升至主要板。

 該公司副主席陳成俊博士指出,益納利于2011年7月上市馬股創業板,2010年至2012年6月30日財年盈利共錄得5320萬令吉,已達至上市主要板,3年累積淨利最低2000萬令吉的要求。

 “公司過去2年一直維持良好表現,收購中國美昌股份后,進一步推動轉戰主要板的計劃,預計后者將在2014財年中,為公司帶來1億美元(約3億2119萬令吉)的盈利貢獻。”

 他說,益納利已委任合盈證券(M&A Securities),負責轉板計劃,經費約100萬令吉,預計耗時6個月。

3新措施影响不大 產业市场短期受压

(吉隆坡8日讯)虽然国家银行上周宣布实施三项措施以抑制消费者贷款,包括將房屋贷款的最长期限从45年,缩减至35年;不过,市场人士普遍认为,有关措施对產业领域的影响甚微,短期內的產业销售或许会在市场適应新措施的情况下受压,但產业领域的基本面和前景依旧强劲。

达证券分析员认为,新措施对產业领域的影响不显著,据他针对35年和40年期贷款的每月分期付款研究所得,两者的差別为5.4%,这表示缩减贷款期限对消费者的负担能力仅减低约5%。

儘管如此,MIDF研究分析员相信,新措施將鼓励更负责任的贷款活动且避免过高的家庭债务。

马航闢3新航线拼盈利


(吉隆坡8日讯)马航(MAS,3786,主板贸服股)周一宣佈推出3条新航线,在未来数个月內开始从吉隆坡飞往迪拜(Dubai)、澳洲达尔文(Darwin)、以及印度柯枝(Kochi)。

吉隆坡飞往迪拜的航线將从8月5日开始起航,吉隆坡开往柯枝的航线则从9月1日开始,皆为每日航班。吉隆坡飞往达尔文的航线则从11月1日起,每周5家航班。

马航首席执行员拿督阿末佐哈里指出,达尔文和迪拜对马航而言並不陌生。该航空公司曾经飞往以上地点,但却分別於11年前与去年1月份暂停了原有航线。而柯枝则是全新的航线。「我们持续观察著市场的需求,並对能够再次把上述地点纳入我们的网络而感到欣慰。」

马建屋首当其衝 永旺信贷衝击不大

(吉隆坡8日讯)在国家银行的新措施出炉之后,两家上市的非银行金融机构永旺信贷(AEONCR,5139,主板金融股)及马建屋(MBSB,1171,主板金融股)备受关注,分析员普遍认为,新措施对前者的影响程度不大,后者则可能面对一些衝击。

基于永旺信贷的客户组合更加的多元化及个人贷款计划的还款期相当保守,分析员认为国家银行所实施的家庭债务措施对于永旺信贷的影响略微。

无论如何,永旺信贷的股价今日早盘一度跌16仙,或0.94%,不过,在午盘则逐步收复失地,闭市掛价17令吉,平盘收市。

由于考虑到市场情绪可能走缓,分析员修订永旺信贷的个人贷款成长目標为10%,並分別调低2013及2014財政年的每股盈利(EPS)预测,各2.6%及3.8%。

一股作气:汇华产业盈利转折点

一股作气:汇华产业盈利转折点
Created 07/08/2013 - 14:45
在过去3个季度,盈利表现走下坡的汇华产业(HUNZPTY,5018,主板产业股),预料将来到一个转折点。

在本月开业的Gurney Paragon购物广场,将开始为该集团在2014财年的营收乃至净利表现上带来显著的正面贡献。

至于该股最重大的催化剂,就是汇华产业有意将零售产业注入为产业投资信托(REIT),从而释放其内在价值。

Inari seeks to shift to main market

Inari seeks to shift to main market
2013/07/08

Electronics manufacturing services (EMS) provider Inari Amertron Bhd is seeking to transfer its listing status to the Main Market of Bursa Malaysia from the ACE market in the fourth quarter of 2013.

Inari vice chairman Dr Tan Seng Chuan said the exercise is pending the approvals from the relevant authorities and shareholders at an upcoming extraordinary general meeting.

He said the exercise would also enable the group to attract greater shareholder interest especially among institutional investors.

股海宝藏:顺利实业估值落后同业

股海宝藏:顺利实业估值落后同业
Created 07/01/2013 - 14:55
产业股在全国大选之后经历一些调整,根据联昌证券报告,产业领域近期因国家银行或废除“发展商承担利息计划”(Developers’ Interest Bearing Scheme,DIBS)的市场传言而面对压力。市场盛传国行会与产业发展商会面,商讨抑制产业市场的投机活动,料国行将向发展商承担利息计划下手。

此外,美联储主席伯南克表明,会收紧购买债券的行动,这使到资金流出亚洲地区,包括马来西亚。

不过,联昌证券认为,产业销量放缓只是暂时性的,长期而言,产业交易将保持稳健,因为我国住宅领域基本因素稳健。

Riding on Asian shipping industry

Riding on Asian shipping industry

2013/07/08

UNITED States private equity and investment funds are betting Asia's shipping industry, hit by a restructuring wave that has already swept Europe and the US, is the best spot to ride a recovery from the industry's worst downturn in three decades.

Sturdy commodity demand growth and slower new ship deliveries will help balance fleet and cargo demand for the first time since 2004, analysts say, boosting freight rates by next year and into 2015.

麥嘉華(Marc Faber)筆記 08.07.13: 美股危機四伏 先沽為妙

麥嘉華筆記: 美股危機四伏 先沽為妙
讀者或許會問,「政治正確」為何會跟經濟和金融市場扯上關係?其實例子多的是,記者格林(Ryan Grim)於2009年在《赫芬頓郵報》便發表了一篇名為《美國聯儲局如何收買經濟專才》的文章,文中指出聯儲局透過龐大的顧問網絡、學者交流和校友會等,影響着經濟界,這解釋了為何聯儲局自大蕭條以來,即使屢次未有就潛在的經濟滑坡發出預警,都未受業界的窮追猛打。

我在先前的文章中曾指出,在2000至2013年期間,經季節調整後的美國實質中位家庭收入不增反減。更甚的是,大多數家庭於過去10至15年除了收入減少,原來連財富也蒸發了許多。

數碼收發站:淡馬錫增持工行早有玄機

數碼收發站:淡馬錫增持工行早有玄機
http://paper.wenweipo.com   [2013-07-08]    
 ■司馬敬
 美股上周五即市上落逾200點回應有利於聯儲局9月「收水」的最新就業數據,但令市場提振的是,道指在曾跌約百點後,尾市抽升147點以近全日高位15,136報收,倒升0.98%,市場焦點傾向就業數據向好所代表的經濟持續復甦,有利企業盈利前景而帶動股市上揚。基於美國6月失業率維持7.6%而經濟向好,有利亞太區經濟,今天亞太區假後復市,料仍以向好為主,日圓跌穿101水平,續有利日股表現。國務院公布十大措施撐經濟,重點是統籌金融資源配合,有利紓解市場對資金緊張影響實體經濟的憂慮,對內地股市持續回升有正面影響。港股上周五美預託證券雖跌近百五點,今早順勢低開反而有利資金入市,港股技術走勢已轉佳,七月市可望續向21,500推進。

公司響警降盈測大行尋寶

公司響警降盈測大行尋寶
本月底踏入上市公司業績期,自六月起已有約五十家公司發盈警,券商普遍料中資股及周期性股份業績或令投資者失望,並掀起企業盈利預測調低風暴,惟各大行積極尋找「幸存者」,瑞銀料部分受政策支持及入行門檻較高的新興工業,如油氣設備股及水務處理等環保概念股,未來十年將步入增長周期,或成為最後「贏家」。

瑞銀:環保概念跑贏
瑞銀料下半年內地不會放鬆銀根,加上出口壓力,中國經濟復甦或延遲。內房、汽車、家電及中藥相關股份中期盈利或有逾兩成增長,惟下半年汽車股或面對減價及銷量下跌等挑戰,至今不是入市良機,家電股中看好估值較低的空調股,內房股料與市場同步或輕微跑贏大市。

美退市升溫 高息股無運行 房託股吸引力降恐再跌半成

【本報訊】美國債息又抽升,高息股有危機!美國上周五公佈標青就業數據,帶動美股大升之餘,聯儲局退市機會升溫,令美債息狂飆,高息股如房託股吸引力驟跌,連同受加息陰霾困擾的地產股,隨時出現新一輪沽壓。分析指,即使房託股近日累積跌幅大,但股息率未見吸引,估計仍有半成下跌空間。記者:林靜

繼聯儲局主席伯南克上月拋出最快今年底減少買債的退市路線圖後,上周五美國公佈的6月非農業就業職位數目亦超出預期,令退市預期升溫,美債再遭摒棄,10年期國債息瘋狂漲9.4%,至2.74厘的近兩年新高水平。按過往經驗,美債息抽升往往為高息股如房託和公用股,及對息口敏感的地產股帶來壓力,市場正憂慮相關板塊要面臨新一輪沽貨潮。

MBSB under spotlight

THIS is turning out to be generally an interesting time for Malaysia Building Society Bhd (MBSB) following the enforcement of Financial Services Act 2013 (FSA). The non-bank financial provider next course of action will be closely-watched by investors and the industry.

Under the previous Banking and Financial Institution Act 1989 (Bafia), MBSB is defined as a scheduled institution. The status of an exempt finance company was granted to MBSB on March 1, 1972 by the Finance Ministry and the status has remained since and is thus not bounded by any financial regulators in Malaysia. The status allows MBSB to undertake a financing business in the absence of a banking license.

馬股第三季投資基本法

馬股第三季投資基本法
Created 07/07/2013 - 19:00
大馬全國大選明朗化,解除馬股最大隱憂及不确定因素,進入2013年第三季,馬股未來前景是褒是貶,未來3個月將往向何方,是市場熱切尋求的答案。

馬股國內市場因素轉向平穩,預料政府將持續推動經濟轉計劃(ETP),刺激國內消費市場,以推動經濟成長,成敗將直接影響馬股未來趨勢。

分析員普遍較擔心海外市場因素,主要是海外市場走勢較震盪不靖,特別是短期將受到美國量化寬松貨幣政策(QE)措施即將退市收水行動干擾,加上歐元區主權債務危機尚是余波未了,中國及日本經濟及股市變數增多,都是足可衝擊全球股市的成敗元凶。

巴迪尼展望審慎

巴迪尼展望審慎
Created 07/05/2013 - 17:30
(吉隆坡5日訊)巴迪尼控股(PADINI,7052,主板消費品組)2014財政年的分店拓展計劃,分析員預見價格競爭加劇將拉低利潤,但在新店面及大選後銷售情緒改善,盈利前景將比前期更亮麗。

大馬研究指出,國際零售業者及拓展計劃持續湧入,服裝零售前景充滿挑戰,預見價格競爭加劇將潛在拉低利潤,重申巴迪尼控股謹慎展望。

瑞典服裝零售業者及直接競爭者H&M快速在大馬拓展業務版圖,至今已在巴生河流域開設3家分店,分別位於樂天廣場(Lot10)、Paradigm廣場及實達城購物廣場(Setia CityMall)。

从纯发展商转型 汇华产业拓实业投资

从纯发展商转型 汇华产业拓实业投资

 二零一三年七月六日 凌晨十二时二十二分

(吉隆坡5日讯)汇华产业有限公司(HUNZPTY,5018,产业组)执行董事拿督许廷忠告诉The Edge:“我们已从一个纯发展商转型至拥有实业投资。在长期方面,我们的持续收入将来自实业。”

Gurney Paragon Mall于7月杪开幕,象征着该集团的重大转变,从只是一个发展商,延伸至着重于实业投资,并有意最终成立一个实业投资信托。

CapitaRetail China Trust: - Time to enter on overselling -(OCBC)

CapitaRetail China Trust: -
Fair value S$1.58
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.093
versus: Current price S$1.395

Time to enter on overselling
• Selling overdone
• Interest cost to stay below 3%
• Upgrade to BUY

As part of the general sell-down in the markets, CRCT's unit price has fallen 25.2% since the peak of S$1.865 on 11 April 2013. Apart from the prospect of early tapering of QE by the Fed, CRCT has been affected by concerns of a moderation in retail sales growth from: 1) a de-acceleration of China’s economy and 2) President Xi Jinping’s campaign against conspicuous consumption.

YTL Land aims for 'one-of-a-kind homes'

The Straits Times, June 24, 2013

BYONG CHOR HAO

[SINGAPORE] YTL Land and Development's pro-jects in Singapore will be "one-of-a-kind homes" that serve discerning buyers, said its vice president Joseph Yeoh.

In his first interview with Singapore media in his current role last Friday, Mr Yeoh, who leads the Singapore property portfolio, said this is part of a three-fold strategy.

"The first thing is to create and design one-of-a-kind homes for our discerning buyers," he said.

罗杰斯:做空中国大错特错



SUNTEC REIT: It's Full Throttle For Suntec City AEI Phase 1 (OSK)

SUNTEC REIT: It's Full Throttle For Suntec City AEI Phase 1
(BUY, SGD1.61, TP: SGD1.78)
Phase 1 of Suntec City AEI was completed recently and re-launched on 21 June. We discovered from a tour of the mall that about 45% of the shops have commenced operation while the rest will open sometime this month. The additional income arising from the re-launch from 3Q13 onwards prompt us to upgrade SUN to a BUY, and lift our TP to SGD1.78.

Suntec City AEI Phase 1 completed. Phase 1 of the asset enhancement initiative (AEI) at Suntec City Mall was part of the three-phase SGD410m AEI project initiated last June. This recently completed phase, encompassing an area of c.193,000 sq ft, was re-launched on 21 June. In Phase 1, part of the convention centre’s levels 1 and 2 were converted for retail use. The converted space will form part of the 125,000 sq ft of additional retail space  when all three phases of the AEI are completed by 4Q14.

Magnum : A good end game (CIMB)

Magnum :
Current RM3.75
Target RM4.38
A good end game

 After more than three decades of restructuring and changes in ownership, Magnum, formally known as Multi Purpose Holdings, has finally completed its transformation from a debt-ridden conglomerate to a cash-generative pure gaming yield play.

We initiate coverage with an Outperform rating and DDM-based target price of RM4.38. Our DDM value includes a capital repayment of 48 sen expected in the next three months following the successful spin-off of the non-gaming assets into an IPO. With its key restructuring plans concluded, the catalysts for Magnum shares are industry growth and dividend payouts.

曾淵滄專欄 08.07.13:東北補地價好關鍵

上周四及五,港股連升兩天,收復之前兩天的跌幅之餘,更有輕微的升幅,但不保證上周三的下跌是見底之跌,理由是內地A股非常不穩定,人民銀行仍然未有放鬆銀根的迹象。

新界東北發展的最終規劃出爐了,採公私合營方式,部份徵地,部份讓地主自行通過補地價開發,上周五本地地產股全面上升,當然,上升可以說是跟隨大市上升,也可以說受新界東北規劃公佈的刺激,因為不同的地產股升幅不一,差別相當大,這反映了不同地產商在新界東北囤地的多少。

China Banking Sector : Approaching inflection point (DBSV)

China Banking Sector
Approaching inflection point

Sector is approaching inflection point again
Current valuations are pricing in a severe decline in profitability, which we don’t foresee in the near term
Large cap banks are better positioned in 22 comparison metrics
Top picks are ABC and CCB

Time to bottom fish. The sector’s relative performance against the HSI is approaching 2 standard deviations below the mean, and a few H-share banks’ P/BV levels have also fallen below 2 standard deviations below mean. We believe now is the time to bottom fish Chinese banks. Current valuations are pricing in a severe decline in profitability. We expect the sector can rebound once there is more clarity that a banking crisis is not occurring in China.

Vard Holdings : Thorny Brazilian (CIMB)

Vard Holdings
Current S$1.09
Target S$0.94
Thorny Brazilian

 Things in Brazil have been thornier than expected. Vard has guided that its 2Q13 performance will be poorer than what consensus is expecting.

Factoring in lower margins, we cut our FY13-15 EPS by 19-36%.We downgrade Vard to Trading Sell from Outperform as we expect the market to focus on Brazilian issues and the stock to come under heavy near-term selling pressure. Hence, we lower our target price, now based on 9x CY13P/E(previously 9x CY14 P/E), 1s.d.above its trading mean since listing). Our target implies 1.9x CY13 P/BV, 1s.d. below its trading mean since listing, which could form a floor for the stock, in our view.

Golden Agri Resources: Coming of age (DBSV)

Golden Agri Resources
NOT RATED S$0.555
STI : 3,147.12
Price Target : 12-month S$ 0.53

Coming of age
• Building own destination markets, expanding downstream
• May finalise acquisition of 16k ha of oil palm estates (planted) by end 3Q13
• Watch out for more corporate action. Our estimated fair value is S$0.53/share

Coming of age. We recently hosted Golden Agri Resources (GGR) in the DBSV Pulse of Asia conference in Singapore, where the management met with 16 investors. The group indicated that, as it has reached a sizeable operation, it will rely less on traders and concentrate on building its own destination markets. The group is also expanding refining and oleochemical capacities.

Bumitama Agri : Earnings growth to accelerate (DBSV)

Bumitama Agri
BUY S$1.00
STI : 3,147.12
Price Target : 12-Month S$ 1.23
Earnings growth to accelerate

• Not slowing down despite weak CPO prices
• May take on more debt next year if there are opportunities to increase planted area through acquisitions
• Reiterate BUY call for 23% upside; company is considering a dividend policy

Not slowing down. We recently hosted Bumitama in the DBSV Pulse of Asia conference in Singapore where the management met with 28 investors. It reiterated its commitment to expand by 13k ha p.a. over the next four years.

Cordlife Group:Corporate-In-Your-Office Feedback (MKE)

Cordlife Group Limited
Buy (unchanged)
Share price: SGD1.065
Target price: SGD1.29 (unchanged)
Corporate-In-Your-Office Feedback

 Strong interest in Asia cord blood leader. Our recently concluded Corporate-In-Your-Office concall in Singapore drew the participation of seven institutional fund managers and stimulating questions. CEO of Cordlife, Jeremy Yee, provided more clarity on his strategies to fend off competition and future growth direction in terms of product diversification and market expansion. We maintain our positive view on the stock and reiterate BUY with TP of SGD1.29 (23x FY14F PER).

Sheng Siong : Store openings hit a hitch (MKE)

Sheng Siong Group
Buy (unchanged)
Share price: SGD0.65
Target price: SGD0.74 (from SGD0.80)
Store openings hit a hitch

 Lowered GFA expansion guidance. We received a quick update from management lowering their previous new store openings guidance to 10% increase in GFA. Accordingly, we decreased our 2013 GFA expansion estimates from 8% to 4.5%, representing 18,000 sq ft new GFA. We also trimmed our FY13F to FY15F earnings forecast to between 2.8% and 4.1%. We remain positive that the bumper store openings from FY12 will carry forward strong earnings for this year and reiterate Sheng Siong’s defensive earnings nature. We lower our TP to SGD0.74 and peg our valuation multiple to 25.8x, a 10% discount to Dairy Farm’s 5-year P/E average of 28.7x. Maintain BUY.

Sunday, July 7, 2013

SCORE激活经济 砂拉越概念股沾光

受惠第十大马计划(10MP),砂拉越经济预计將加速增长步伐。旨在提高砂拉越对大马国內生產总值(GDP)贡献的砂拉越再生能源走廊(SCORE),將让砂拉越相关股项受惠。

2008年2月11日推出的SCORE,是大马5大发展走廊之一。砂拉越能源资源丰富,包括2万兆瓦(MW)的水力发电厂,14.6亿公吨煤炭,以及天然气。

SCORE將促使砂拉越为能源提供竞爭力的价格,刺激发电和能源密集领域的投资,进而变成充满活力的领域。

標准普尔(Standard&Poor's)与穆迪投资者服务(Moody's)分別给予砂拉越前景「A-」和「A3」的评级。

曾渊沧:央行紧缩银根 港股急升急跌

上个月,当股市出现巨大的调整时,不少人都期望过了六月底的半年结,银行钱荒的问题应该可以解决,但是,半年结过后,七月二日与三日,港股急跌,尤其是七月三日,恒指跌幅超过500点,大家才知道,调整仍未结束。七月四日,恒指反弹300多点,但是成交额很低,仅400余亿元,反弹力道不强,相信只有基金大户在买股,散户仍在观望,不敢入市。我估计短期内港股依然会面对巨大的波动。

今日中国的钱荒,很明显地是人民银行自己动手紧缩银根造出来的。目的就是清除许多大大小小的问题,也为将来银行利率市场化铺路,银行利率一日无法走向市场化,就百病竞生,出现[倒爷],利用自己的关系低息率取得银行贷款,再以更高利率转贷他人以图利,幸好,紧缩银根是人民银行一手造成的,人民银行也随时可以放松银根以解决市场的紧张及钱荒。现在,我们仍不知道人民银行的紧缩银根行动还会持续多久?在紧一紧,松一松的过程中,股市也就出现了波动,急跌急升。

美国退出QE恐为新兴市场带来“腥风血雨” (燃烧的货币)



倫敦布蘭特原油即將大跌, 油價還會更低?



黃金蘊釀反彈?蔡森老師:我準備好了!



Shifting from Defensives to Cyclicals



黃金跌破生產成本?究竟會是個埋點還是買點?



FSM每週市場分析:金價再度暴跌



28/6/2013 集裝箱製造業分析



谁制造了银行钱荒



A股连续暴跌,股民何从?



胡立阳: 炒股 快使用双节棍 (解码财商)



甚麼是"同業拆息"、"錢荒"?威力真的那麼驚人?—施凌教學第八十集


Stocks to Buy on Weakness in 2H2013



SingTel and Yoma Strategic may have lost out in their bids for a telco licence in Myanmar.


China’s central bank and how they’re handling the lending crisis on their hands.


油價率先噴出反應局勢緊張?



美債殖利率彈升,台灣壽險業持有大量美債部位,壽險股皆臉綠?



Warren E. Buffett(沃伦•巴菲特)
Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful
别人贪婪时我恐惧, 别人恐惧时我贪婪
投资只需学好两门课: 一,是如何给企业估值,二,是如何看待股市波动
吉姆·罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)
“错过时机”胜于“搞错对象”:不会全军覆没!”
做自己熟悉的事,等到发现大好机会才投钱下去

乔治·索罗斯(George Soros)

“犯错误并没有什么好羞耻的,只有知错不改才是耻辱。”

如果操作过量,即使对市场判断正确,仍会一败涂地。

李驰(中国巴菲特)
高估期间, 卖对, 不卖也对, 买是错的。
低估期间, 买对, 不买也是对, 卖是错的。

Tan Teng Boo


There’s no such thing as defensive stocks.Every stock can be defensive depending on what price you pay for it and what value you get,
冷眼(冯时能)投资概念
“买股票就是买公司的股份,买股份就是与陌生人合股做生意”。
合股做生意,则公司股份的业绩高于一切,而股票的价值决定于盈利。
价值是本,价格是末,故公司比股市重要百倍。
曹仁超-香港股神/港股明灯
1.有智慧,不如趁势
2.止损不止盈
成功者所以成功,是因为不怕失败!失败者所以失败,是失败后不再尝试!
曾淵滄-散户明灯
每逢灾难就是机会,而是在灾难发生时贱价买股票,然后放在一边,耐性地等灾难结束
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