Saturday, July 6, 2013

Dividends: It’s Not Just About Yield, It’s About High Growth

Dividends: It’s Not Just About Yield, It’s About High Growth
By The Motley Fool Singapore in Investments | Jul 3, 2013

Dividends are like magic beans. You plant a few pennies, and a year later you’re reaping dollars. Of course, that still leaves the question of which beans are better. And since there are few predictors, most of us like using yield. But as our friends at The Motley Fool demonstrate, high yield isn’t the sole consideration:

勇达净利前景受看好

吉隆坡6日讯)隨著国內水务领域重现曙光,第二冷岳滤水站工程和雪州水务资產重组落实在即,市场分析员认为,勇达集团(ENGTEX,5056,主板贸服股)將从中受惠,净利前景受看好。

3有利因素加持

马银行投行分析员表示,在上述发展趋势之下,勇达集团的前景受看好,原因有3个。第一,钢管需求走高;第二,其2年的净利年复合成长率(CAGR)料达15%;第三,2014財政年的本益比(PER)估计是3.9倍。

该分析员指出,勇达集团是一家国內最大的水管和配件批发商,其製造部门专为水务和建筑领域生產铁丝网、轻型铁管和球墨铸铁管。该公司2008年起就已从事產业发展。在2012財政年,勇达集团的扣除利息、税项、折旧及摊销前之盈利(EBITDA)来自批发、製造业和產业,比例为49:46:5。

Tan Teng Boo: Hong Kong Stocks Favored Among Asia Peers



曾淵滄教路 25.06.13 : 股民非神仙 投資要長揸

股民非神仙 投資要長揸
過去幾個星期,股市動盪不安,有人會感到很刺激,多次入市博反彈,撈底成功當然會很高興。不過,股市經常是低處不算低,博反彈不成怎麼辦?

我把買賣股票的行為分為三種,第一種是投資,第二種是投機,第三種是賭博。

我認為,投資一定是長期,我們不是神仙,我們買股票時不可能知道明天股價會升或跌,我們甚至在這一分鐘買股票而不知道下一分鐘股價是升是跌。但是,我們是不難計算一下目前股份與過去比較,相對而言是便宜了還是貴了,P/E是高是低,股價與每股淨資產的折讓率是高是低,有了這些數字,我們就可以得到結論。

Press Metal slips in early trade, concerns over impact on Mukah plant

KUALA LUMPUR: Shares of Press Metal slipped to a low of RM2.20 in early Friday trade on nagging concerns about the impact on its Mukah plant in Sarawak caused by the power outage on June 27.

At 9.43am, it was down three sen to RM2.21. There were 36,000 shares done at prices ranging from RM2.20 to RM2.22.

The FBM KLCI was up 5.92 points to 1,777.26. Turnover was 248.33 million shares valued at RM200.11mil. There were 291 gainers, 83 losers and 183 counters unchanged.

AmResearch said on Friday its checks with management indicated Press Metal's Mukah plant could be shut down for three to six months depending on the severity of the damage caused by the power outage last week.

百盛派定心丸 杭州附屬解散無礙

百盛派定心丸 杭州附屬解散無礙
百盛(03368)公布,其間接全資附屬杭州百盛,於上月底因業主違反租賃協議而自願解散。百盛認為,解散杭州百盛並不會對公司的營運及財務狀況帶來任何重大不利的影響。昨日其股價隨大市上升0.34%,收市報2.94元。

公司執行董事陳漢民及非執行董事鍾榮俊確認為杭州百盛的董事。杭州百盛主要從事百貨店營運,為自○八年成立的外商獨資企業。由於其業主違反租賃協議條款,導致杭州百貨項目被取消,因此杭州百盛於上月二十六日已經自願解散。不過公司董事認為,解散並不會對公司及其附屬公司的營運及財務狀況構成任何重大不利影響。

內銀收水 熔盛陷周轉不靈

內銀收水 熔盛陷周轉不靈
今年到期債156億 找銀行商續期
2013年7月6日
【明報專訊】內地近日面臨錢荒,銀行收緊信貸,造船業成為第一個被開刀的行業。貴為內地最大、全球第3大的造船企業熔盛重工(1101),連日來避談欠薪傳聞。至周四股份突然停牌,昨早終發出公告,承認近月因資金壓力而欠薪及延遲向供應商找數。集團今年到期債務達156億元(人民幣‧下同),公司正跟銀行磋商,重續現有信貸融資額,分析員指熔盛存亡將繫於銀行取態。

熔盛指大股東張志熔借出2億元免息貸款以作周轉,但相比百億短債,恐怕只是杯水車薪。熔盛同時發盈警,指由於市場持續萎縮,船舶訂單及價格較去年大幅下跌,相比去年上半年2.2億元利潤,預計今年同期將錄得虧損。集團昨早復牌後股價即急瀉,收市大跌16%至0.89元,成交量較上日急增2.7倍至1.27億股。

中國農業銀行 (1288.HK) - 資產規模強勁增長

中國農業銀行 (1288.HK) - 資產規模強勁增長
推介日期   10-06-2013 
投資建議買入
建議時股價$ 3.520
買入價N/A
目標價$ 4.500

公司概要

中國農業銀行(以下簡稱“農行”或“集團”)的前身最早可追溯至1951年成立的農業合作銀行,2009年1月,整體改制為股份有限公司。2010年7月,農行分別在上海證券交易所和香港聯合交易所掛牌上市。2011年,在美國《財富》雜誌全球500強排名中,農行位列第127位,穆迪長期存款評級/前景展望為A1/穩定;惠譽長期主體評級/銀行穩定評級為A/B+,前景展望為“穩定”。截止2013年第1季度末,按總資產計算,農行為中國第三大銀行。

中國建設銀行 (939.HK) - 盈利增速穩定 極具吸引力的派息率

中國建設銀行 (939.HK) - 盈利增速穩定 極具吸引力的派息率
推介日期   17-06-2013 
投資建議增持
建議時股價$ 5.470
買入價N/A
目標價$ 6.300


公司概要

中國建設銀行的前身成立於1954年,2004年改制為一家股份制商業銀行,是中國領先的大型股份制商業銀行之一,截止2013年第1季度末,按總資產計算,是中國第2大銀行,其最大股東是中央匯金公司。2005年中國建設銀行在香港H股上市,隨後2007年在上海A股上市。

工商銀行 (1398.HK) - 行業龍頭 中流砥柱

工商銀行 (1398.HK) - 行業龍頭 中流砥柱

推介日期   26-06-2013 
投資建議增持
建議時股價$ 4.400
買入價N/A
目標價$ 5.100

公司概要

工商銀行成立於1984年,是中國最大的上市銀行。2005年,工商銀行改制為股份有限公司,並與2006年10月27日同時在香港及上海上市。截止2012年末,工商銀行為全球市值最大、存款第一,以及盈利最多的上市銀行。銀行擁有明顯的規模優勢,管道網路遍佈全球,目前擁有16,648個境內機構、239個境外機構以及1,669個代理行,同時擁有411萬公司客戶以及2.82億個人客戶。

中國人民保險集團 (1339.HK) - 投資收益增長明顯

中國人民保險集團 (1339.HK) - 投資收益增長明顯
推介日期   04-07-2013 
投資建議買入
建議時股價$ 3.360
買入價N/A
目標價$ 4.090

公司簡介

中國人民保險集團(簡稱“中國人保”或“集團”)於1949年10月成立,是新中國第一家全國性保險公司。目前是中國最大的綜合性保險金融集團之一,旗下主要有財產險、人壽險、健康險等三大類業務及銀行、信託等非保險業務。2012年集團位列《財富》雜誌刊登的世界500強中的第292位。以中國保監會公佈的規模保費資料計算,2012年末,中國人保分別在中國所有財產險公司中居第一,在人壽險公司中排第七位。

聯想集團 (992.HK) - 市佔率持續攀升,抵銷個人電腦需求下降

聯想集團 (992.HK) - 市佔率持續攀升,抵銷個人電腦需求下降

推介日期   05-07-2013 
投資建議買入
建議時股價$ 6.800
買入價N/A
目標價$ 8.600


公司簡介

聯想集團是全球第二大個人電腦廠商,產品線包括Think品牌的商用個人電腦﹑Idea品牌的消費個人電腦﹑服務器及一系列移動互聯網終端包括平板電腦及智能手機等,銷售網絡遍佈全球160多個國家。

產業熱潮‧回流雪隆

產業熱潮‧回流雪隆
Created 07/05/2013 - 10:35
(吉隆坡4日訊)“風水輪流轉”,依斯干達產業發展計劃因供應多不勝數,引發高產業價能否延續的疑慮,令人口潛力龐大和擁有捷運計劃作後盾的巴生河流域有機可乘,產業風潮或自依斯干達吹回巴生河流域。

馬銀行研究上週出席香港基金經理的說明會後發現,大部份香港基金經理擔心未來3年大馬依斯干達產業價的延續動力,主要是當地的推介和供應龐大,尤其高檔公寓。

大部份基金經理認為,投資者可能把焦點轉回巴生河流域的發展商,因巴生河流域捷運第二和第三線即將開動,加上政府或陸續頒發發展地段。

It's About Making Profits (Bonia Group)



谢国忠 中国经济会好吗?



胡立阳: 小心!黄金诱惑! (解码财商)



The EDGE Weekend Comment Jul 5: REITs offer value after selloff

REITs offer value after selloff, says Daiwa
By Frankie Ho
Singapore REITs have surrendered about a third of their gains in just six weeks after a spectacular 55% rally since the start of 2012 powered by the hunt for yield.

Following Fed chairman Ben Bernanke’s announcement last month that the US central bank will start to wind down its monetary stimulus programme later this year, REITs have been hammered as investors cashed out of what had been one of the best-performing sectors for several quarters in the Singapore market.

The expected tapering of the Fed’s quantitative easing programme led investors to believe interest rates will rise in the foreseeable future. Higher rates could mean increased risks for REITs as they require funds to pay for acquisitions or refinance existing debt.

Hunza growing real estate holdings, plans for REIT

Exclusive Hunza growing real estate holdings, plans for REIT
Business & Markets 2013
Written by Janice Melissa Thean of theedgemalaysia.com    
Friday, 05 July 2013 12:58

THE opening of Gurney Paragon Mall on July 23 will mark an important shift for Penang-based HUNZA PROPERTIES [] BHD []. From being just a developer, the group will grow its investments in major real estate and intends to eventually form a real estate investment trust (REIT).

"We are transforming from a pure developer into having real estate investments. In the long term, our regular recurring income will come from real estate," executive director Datuk Khor Teng Tong tells The Edge.

Friday, July 5, 2013

KS Energy and Oxley Holdings see buying activity from CEO and top management

KS Energy and Oxley Holdings see buying activity from CEO and top management

Provider of oilfield supply and services KS Energy has seen buying activity from its majority shareholder Pacific One Energy. According to the filing with the Singapore Exchange, Pacific One Energy’s holding company Rija Holdings is controlled by KS Energy’s chairman and CEO, Kris Taenar Wiluan, and his son Richard James Wiluan, the executive director. From June 18 to 25, Pacific One Energy acquired over three million shares of the company at between 38.4 cents and 41 cents each. The latest acquisition on June 25 brought the Wiluans’ deemed interest in the company to nearly 294 million shares, or 57.3% of the company.

FSM:大馬股市獲3星評級

FSM:大馬股市獲3星評級
Created 07/05/2013 - 11:17
(吉隆坡4日訊)網上基金投資平台Fundsupermart(FSM)認為大馬市場展望正面,不過因估值不及北亞市場具吸引力,在單一國家評分僅獲3星評級,高於印尼及泰國。

FSM研究分析員何啟強在《2013/14FSM推薦基金頒獎典禮》後談及下半年市場展望時表示,對今年及未來數年大馬市場展望樂觀,預計此走勢將持續至2015年。

他說,雖然我國首季經濟成長僅取得4.1%,低於國行預期,但相信在本地及政府投資帶動之下,如基礎設施、巴生河流域第二期捷運計劃、油氣投資等,將惠及建築工程及建材領域,預見相關領域競標工程也陸續有來,促使訂單走強。

马国际船务 总回酬增幅有限

马国际船务 总回酬增幅有限
Created 07/05/2013 - 12:42
目标价:5.06令吉

最新进展

自宣布现财年首季业绩,马国际船务(MISC,3816,主板贸服股)股价已从4.39令吉扬升了19.8%。

行家建议

我们认为股价跃升是合理的,因继国油石油的私有化计划破局之后,马船务国际股价走势已大幅落后大市。

虽然未来的盈利下跌风险看似有限,我们相信全球船运领域走势不明确,依然可能影响该公司的盈利展望;其中,船只租用率依然波动,市场的船只供应也持续过剩。

罗杰斯: 尚未触底 全球金价或续下跌

罗杰斯: 尚未触底 全球金价或续下跌
Created 07/05/2013 - 10:37
(新加坡4日讯)商品投资大师罗杰斯指出,虽然全球金价已下跌至几年来的最低水平,但他相信尚未触底,可能会继续下跌至每安士900至1000美元左右,调整幅度估计是最高价时的50%。

2020年前再创新高

他对于银价的预测是会跌至每安士14元。不过,对于这些金属会在什么时候跌到他所预测的水平,他表示自己也不能确定。

罗杰斯认为,在熊市过后,这些贵金属的价格预料将再次创新高,因为各大央行采取的宽松货币政策,导致纸币贬值,因此这些金属日后仍将是保值的好工具。他预测,金价在2020年前会再次创下新高价位。

捷运新路线将获批 产业投资目光转向巴生谷

捷运新路线将获批 产业投资目光转向巴生谷
Created 07/05/2013 - 10:38
(吉隆坡4日讯)捷运计划路线2及3将很快获批,加上政府土地颁发的消息不断释出,分析员建议投资者将目光从依斯干达特区,转回巴生谷发展商上。

马银行投资银行指出,在巴生谷拥有许多可负担房屋计划的高美达(GLOMAC,5020,主板产业股)和马星集团(MAHSING,8583,主板产业股),对政策改变的风险较低,是该行首选股。

不少基金经理对依斯干达特区产业前景存有忧虑,加上未来3年将可见更多发展计划推出,特别是高档公寓,价格永续性有所风险。

大马评级: 财务趋弱 齐力债评下修

大马评级: 财务趋弱 齐力债评下修
Created 07/05/2013 - 11:33
(吉隆坡4日讯)大马评级公司(MARC)将齐力(PMETAL,8869,主板工业产品股)旗下未偿还的3亿1750万令吉可赎回可转换担保债券评级,从“A-”下修至“BBB”评级。

同时,等待齐力意外关闭砂拉越木胶(Mukah)熔铝厂所带来的信贷冲击之际,MARC也给予上述债券“MARC Watch负面”评级。

基于6月27日发生的停电事故,导致齐力在木胶熔铝厂的熔炉温度骤降而发生凝固情况,从而无法恢复铝生产工作,必须关厂整修,至今仍无法估计损失程度与金额。

缺乏收购活动支撑 产托中短期前景或受压

缺乏收购活动支撑 产托中短期前景或受压
Created 07/05/2013 - 07:54
(吉隆坡4日讯)政府债券回酬率回升,以及上半年缺乏资产收购活动来支撑增长展望,大马产业投资信托(MREITs)中短期内的前景或受压,惟不至于出现大量抛售的情况。

肯纳格投资研究分析员指出,本地产托今年首季的盈利和股息符合预期,从而无需调整盈利预测。

按年比较,零售产托的增长表现(租金增长率为每年6%至9%)明显比办公室及工业产托优越,其中,城中城产托(KLCC,5235SS,主板产业信托股)随国油双峰塔的长期租赁合约获更新而受惠。

Interra Resources : Largest onshore oil producer in Myanmar (DBSV)

Interra Resources
NOT RATED S$0.52
STI : 3,193.51
Return *: 2
Risk: Moderate
Potential Target * : 12-Month S$ 0.57 (12% upside)
Largest onshore oil producer in Myanmar

• Oil & gas proxy in Myanmar and Indonesia with assets mainly in production phase
• Significant production ramp up to drive nearterm growth; potential further upside from exploration assets and bids for new licences
• Fair value implies 12% potential upside and moderate risk return

The Business
Largest onshore oil producer in Myanmar with 40% market share. Interra Resources (ITRR) is an oil & gas exploration and production company with two producing fields in central Myanmar and two producing fields and one exploration site in Indonesia.

Amara Holdings : Spreading its wings in Asia (DBSV)

Amara Holdings
NOT RATED S$0.62
STI : 3,193.51
Return *: 1
Risk: Low
Potential Target * : 12-Month S$ 0.75 (19% upside

Spreading its wings in Asia
• Household brand name with regional ambitions
• MOU to develop hotel business in Myanmar, significant potential upside in the longer term
• Fair value of S$0.75

The Business
Household hotel brand in Singapore. Amara Holdings Ltd (Amara) is an Asian integrated lifestyle group with three key business areas: hotel investment and management, property investment and development, and specialty restaurants and food services. The completion of 100AM (formerly Amara Corporate Tower) will contribute positively to cashflows in 2013 while its regional hotel investments in Shanghai and Bangkok will display a steady growth profile when operational in 2014/2015.

Ride on coattails of Myanmar’s reforms (DBSV)

Ride on coattails of Myanmar’s reforms
• Myanmar’s growth is fast and sustainable
• Abundant opportunities in consumer, tourism, infrastructure and O&G sectors
• Direct access is limited; invest through foreign companies already in or expanding into Myanmar

Reforms have been progressive. Despite skepticisms and multiple challenges, Myanmar’s sweeping reforms have resulted in further easing of sanctions on the country, which in turn is drawing new aids, more visitors and even higher interest to trade and invest in Myanmar. Foreign direct investments (FDIs) have reportedly jumped > 40% to US$1.4bn in FY2013 while tourist arrivals have surged 54% to 1m. ADB projected that Myanmar GDP would expand > 6% in 2013 and could grow 7- 8% p.a. over the decade.

曾淵滄專欄 05.07.13:賭股票勿一味買升

股市依然大幅波動,急跌急升,有人會無所適從。不過,香港人好賭,波動市應該很適合好賭之徒。實際上,從賭的成本來分析,賭股票比賭馬更化算,賭馬者每賭一次,賭注的20%就貢獻給馬會;賭股票的成本相對低得多,一般經紀行0.25%的佣金,個別經紀行的佣金更是低得驚人,連其他的稅務、交易所徵費等等加起來,成本一般不超過0.5%,一買一賣,成本不超過1%,賭股票的成本不但比賭馬低,也比到澳門賭場低,澳門賭場莊家贏面,一般比賭仔高3%左右。

不過,大部份以股票為賭博的人都有一個共同點,那就是只賭升不賭跌,因此股市上升時,賭的人很多;股市下跌時,賭徒也失蹤了。

S&P cuts First Ship Lease Trust rating to 'B' on mgmt change

FSL's lenders are also likely to review the covenant relaxation, which is conditional on continuation of the company's management
Standard & Poor's Ratings Services said that it had lowered its long-term corporate credit rating on First Ship Lease Trust (FSL) to 'B' from 'B+'. We also lowered our long-term ASEAN regional scale rating on the Singapore-based ship leasing trust to 'axB+' from 'axBB-'. At the same time, we placed the ratings on CreditWatch with negative implications.

"We lowered the ratings and placed them on CreditWatch with negative implications to reflect the possible adverse impact of a sudden change in management on FSL's business and relaxation of covenants," said Standard & Poor's credit analyst Katsuyuki Nakai.

First Ship Lease Trust suspended for trading

First Ship Lease Trust has announced that trading in its units will be suspended until further notice.

Philip Clausius, CEO of the trust manager, and Wong Meng Meng, chairman of the manager, also resigned today.

Standard & Poors Ratings Services has lowered the trust’s long term debt rating to B from B+ and has revised its assessment of the trust’s liquidity to ‘less than adequate’ from adequate.

"We lowered the ratings and placed them on CreditWatch with negative implications to reflect the possible adverse impact of a sudden change in management on FSL's business and relaxation of covenants," said Standard & Poor's credit analyst Katsuyuki Nakai.

Temasek defends China bank investments, takes the long view

WRITTEN BY REUTERS  
THURSDAY, 04 JULY 2013 20:31

Singapore state investor Temasek Holdings stood by its investments in China’s top banks on Thursday, saying they were well equipped to cope with disruptions like the recent interbank credit crunch.

It also said structural change in China could yield further investment opportunities, both in state-owned enterprises and private companies.

The sovereign wealth fund’s relatively positive outlook for China’s long-term prospects comes at a time when foreign investment banks are cutting their direct exposure to the country’s banking sector and when last week’s cash crunch in the interbank market has unnerved investors.

Pantech - Buy On Share Price Weakness

Pantech -
Price Target:1.43
Last Price:0.915
Buy On Share Price Weakness

Pantech (PGHB) told Bursa Malaysia yesterday that the US Government may  impose  anti-dumping  measures  on  welded  stainless  steel  pipes from Malaysia,  Vietnam and Thailand.  We believe  the impact  to PGHB’s bottom-line will be muted as  its  stainless steel pipe  division is small.  If the market reacts  negatively  to this piece of news, we advise investors to  BUY  PGHB  shares  on  any  price  weakness,  with  our  MYR1.43  FV unchanged as the company’s growth pace remains intact.

- A precautionary  step.  PGHB  is exercising  good corporate governance by  warning  its  investors  of  the  potential  of  such  a  negative  outcome although the decision on the impending measures has yet to be made.

Vard & Singtel: Recent Bad News An Opportunity To Buy In?

04 JULY 2013
Vard & Singtel: Recent Bad News An Opportunity To Buy In?
By Raymond Leung and Simeon Ang



Vard
Last Friday, the management of Vard Holdings (Vard) announced that they anticipate earnings for this quarter to be below consensus estimates. Vard attributed this to further delays and costs overruns at its Niterói yard in Brazil as well as higher start-up costs for its new Promar shipyard. This came as a surprise to the market as Vard had previously guided that its Brazil operations are coming under control and would stabilize by year-end.

S-REITs - Adjusting To A New Normal (UOBKH)

We downgrade the S-REITs segment to MARKET WEIGHT as further rate hikes loom despite bond yields overshooting in the near term. This will be mitigated by longer fixed-rate debt maturities in the near term, and further out, REITs will transition from yield vehicles to growth vehicles as economies recover. We prefer office and industrial REITs which will benefit from a turnaround in office rentals. Suntec, CCT and AREIT are our top picks.

What’s New
• Adjusting to a new normal. S-REITs have corrected 12-23% from their recent highs as an unprecedented surge in 10-year US treasuries led to a doubling of 10-year Singapore government securities (10Y SGS) yields to 2.6% in under two months. We raise our risk-free rate (RFR) assumption for S-REITs by 80bp to 3% to reflect the changes in the market.

Biosensors International :More Risks to Licensing Revenue (MKE)

Biosensors International
Hold (unchanged)
Share price: SGD1.08
Target price: SGD1.17 (from SGD1.25)
More Risks to Licensing Revenue

 Not time for re-entry, Maintain Hold. While share price is at 24% off its 52-wk peak of SGD1.42, we flag further risks in licensing revenue from Terumo which could cap share price recovery. More aggressive marketing efforts for Nobori stent in Japan could result in higher distribution cost. We cut FY3/14F-16F net profits by 6-7% as we raise our distribution cost assumptions which were too conservative. Not time for re-entry, maintain Hold, SOTP-based TP trimmed to SGD1.17.

Thursday, July 4, 2013

Engtex Group:Unique Water Play (MKE)

Engtex Group
Not Rated
Share price: MYR0.95
Fair value: MYR1.32
Unique Water Play

Strong catalysts. The water industry is in for a revival, with the key catalysts being the imminent award of Langat 2 water treatment plant and water reform in Selangor. We like Engtex because: (i) it is a beneficiary of increasing pipe demand; (ii) there is still upside to our projected 2-year net profit CAGR of 15%; and (iii) undemanding FY14 PER valuation of 3.9x. We fairly value Engtex at MYR1.32 (+38%), pegging at FY14 PER of just 5.4x (+1SD above mean of 4.7x).

Malaysian stock market correction expected

Malaysian stock market correction expected

BY LIZ LEE
LIZLEE@THESTAR.COM.MY

KUALA LUMPUR: The benchmark FBM KLCI may be due for a correction this quarter as valuations were not sustainable although the downside should be well-supported by strong liquidity in the banking system.

Kenanga Investment Bank Bhd research head Chan Ken Yew said the index was trading at a mere 3.5% discount to its consensus target of 1,840.

美国对马不锈钢管征税 鹏达集团不担心反倾销

美国对马不锈钢管征税 鹏达集团不担心反倾销
Created 07/04/2013 - 10:28
(吉隆坡3日讯)分析员认为,美国对大马进口不锈钢管实施反倾销的措施,对鹏达集团(PANTECH,5125,主板贸服股)的影响甚微,公司未来展望仍明亮,部分投行更建议投资者应趁低买进该股。

鹏达集团在昨日新闻稿指出,美国国际贸易委员会在今年6月28日表决,对从大马、越南和泰国进口的不锈钢管实施反倾销措施,虽会影响旗下子公司———鹏达不锈与合金工业私人有限公司(PSA),但后者在2014财年贡献预计少于3%营业额,预计不会严重冲击整体业绩表现。

鹏达集团今日股价表现并未受拖累,闭市时上扬0.5仙或0.55%,以91.5令吉挂收。

易名后反映纯万字票业务 万能派息料调至80%

易名后反映纯万字票业务 万能派息料调至80%
Created 07/04/2013 - 10:30
(吉隆坡3日讯)前身为马化控股的万能(MAGNUM,3859,主板贸服股),今日“易名正身”后更能反映出纯万字票业者的本质,分析员也因而将公司派息率预估调高至80%。

将非博彩业务分拆到马化资本(MPHBCAP,5237,主板金融股)后,马化控股今日起,正式易名为万能。

大众投资银行指出,在保险和其他非核心资产分拆后,该行将2013至2015财年净利预估下修20至29%,反映了其他非核心业务的较高赚幅预期,但同时将万能的派息率上修至80%。

New look for Tiger Airways


淡马锡控股在中国银行的投资面对严峻的考验

淡马锡控股在中国银行的投资面对严峻的考验
文: 汤森路透 (译:麦美莹) 2013年07月03日 汤森路透
新加坡国家投资公司淡马锡控股(Temasek Holdings)在中国银行的大幅度投资面对很大的压力,因为全球第二大经济体将步入其超过20年来的最缓慢增长。

国家获得AAA评级的主权财富基金在过去几年对中国的大银行作出庞大的投资,自2012年以来,单单在中国工商银行的投资便大约为24亿元。

可是,在信贷紧缩及坏账增多的情况下,中国银行现在面对艰难的前景。上个月,中国央行让银行同业隔夜拆息创下历史高位,目的是惩罚银行发放风险过高的贷款,并逼使它们减少有问题的贷款。但这一来,银行便陷于前所未有的银根短缺。

Fortune REIT: Affected by rising discount rates (OCBC)

Fortune REIT:
Fair value HK$7.51
add: 12m dividend forecast HK$0.37
versus: Current price HK$7.16

Affected by rising discount rates
• Price has dropped 15% since the peak
• Operationally robust
• Reduce FV and maintain BUY

The prospect of an early tapering of US Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing program has driven up bond yields and, as a result, high-yield counters such as Fortune REIT (FRT) have seen a correction in their prices. FRT’s unit price has fallen 15.1% since the peak of HK$8.43 on 15th May this year (but still up 12.4% YTD).

汇华产业 私配提高流通率

汇华产业 私配提高流通率
Created 07/04/2013 - 11:23
目标价:2.62令吉

最新进展

汇华产业(HUNZPTY,5018,主板产业股)建议,进行占股本10%的私下配售活动,以融资3270万至42580万令吉,作为减债和营运资本用途。

行家建议

由于汇华产业流通量相当低,仅为27.8%,我们相信这次的配售活动并不会引发股票过多的现象。

Tigerair plans to expand network in Malaysia

Published: Thursday July 4, 2013 MYT 12:00:00 AM
Tigerair plans to expand network in Malaysia

BY DAVID TAN
DAVIDTAN@THESTAR.COM.MY

GEORGE TOWN: Tiger Airways Singapore is planning to expand its network in Malaysia, following the unveiling of its new corporate identity as Tigerair.

Managing director Ho Yuen Sang said the rationale for the expansion was because many Tigerair passengers preferred to connect to Malaysia after arriving in Singapore.

“We are looking at Ipoh, Kuala Terengganu and Kota Kinabalu as the new destinations for Tigerair.

馬化控股易名萬能‧3年財測下調

馬化控股易名萬能‧3年財測下調
Created 07/03/2013 - 17:37
(吉隆坡3日訊)隨著馬化資本(MPHBCAP,5237,主板金融組))在上週五成功上市,馬化控股今日正式重新易名為萬能(MAGNUM,3859,主板貿服組),以反映其成為純測字經營公司的新形象。市場也相應調整其2013/2015年的營業額,淨利及派息率的預測。

大眾研究指出,隨著完成業務分拆計劃後,將萬能的2013至2015年的營業額預測,調低5至13%,而淨利則下調20至29%,主要是之前納入較高賺幅的非核心業務在內。該行也將其股息派發率上調至80%。

Betting on Asian shipping Fund managers put their money on a recovery in the sector

Betting on Asian shipping Fund managers put their money on a recovery in the sector

SINGAPORE: US private equity and investment funds are betting Asia’s shipping industry, hit by a restructuring wave that has already swept Europe and the United States, is the best spot to ride a recovery from the industry’s worst downturn in three decades.

Sturdy commodity demand growth and slower new ship deliveries will help balance fleet and cargo demand for the first time since 2004, analysts say, boosting freight rates by next year and into 2015.

For private equity looking to buy into the upturn, Asian shipping firms undergoing restructuring like South Korea’s STX Pan Ocean Co Ltd and Indonesia’s Berlian Laju Tanker Tbk PT offer opportunities.

More investors expected to cash out amid record-high home prices


Banking on Cord Blood with Cordlife Group



PetroChina : A clear beneficiary (CS)

PetroChina
Upgrade to OUTPERFORM
Price (02 Jul 13 , HK$) 8.80
TP (prev. TP HK$) 11.10 (10.70)
A clear beneficiary

● China revamps its natural gas price mechanism: The new mechanism segregates ‘old’ (existing) supply at the city gate with ‘new’ supply (incremental supply from 2013). ‘Old’ gas prices will rise with a cap of Rmb0.4/cm; ‘New’ prices will use a formula similar to the trial, i.e., 85% of crude derivatives (Fuel Oil & LPG).

● PetroChina – avoids a (import gas) knife: We forecast, basis current import commitments, that PetroChina's imports share will increase from 24% in 2012 to 45% by 2015. Hence, the new gas price mechanism is timely before material gas import hits.

Pantech Group Holdings - Potentially hit by US anti-dumping suits

Pantech Group Holdings -
Price Target:1.18
Last Price:0.915
Potentially hit by US anti-dumping suits

News    Pantech Group Holdings (PANTECH) announced that there is a potential that its stainless steel pipes production from its wholly-owned subsidiary, Pantech Stainless & Alloy Industries Sdn Bhd (PSA), could be subjected to US antidumping suits from Oct-13.

In anticipation of such a risk: 1) the company is looking to contest the suits; 2) is actively looking to shift production to higher stainless steel fittings production (which is not subjected to such anti-dumping laws and have higher margins than stainless steel pipes); and 3) is actively exploring other potential export markets such as South America and European countries.

Pantech says US suit has minimal impact

PETALING JAYA: Pantech Group Holdings Bhd’s operations will be minimally affected by the anti-dumping suit on welded stainless steel pipes initiated by the International Trade Administration of the Department of Commerce in the United States.

The United States International Trade Commission voted last month to continue with the anti-dumping suit on such pipes from Malaysia, Vietnam and Thailand.

In an announcement to Bursa Malaysia, Pantech said it anticipated minimal impact on the group’s performance from the suit, at less than 3% of its financial year 2014 revenue.

Dah Chong Hong : 1H remains weak, expect 2H to improve (DBSV)

Dah Chong Hong
BUY HK$5.91
HSI : 20,659
Price Target : 12-month HK$ 6.80 (Prev HK$10.00)
1H remains weak, expect 2H to improve

China auto unit sales in 1H below industry average; HK car sales were robust and benefiting from the weaker Yen
Expect recovery in China auto business in 2H from new models; after-sales services remain strong
Maintain BUY; TP lowered to HK$6.80 after cutting FY13/14F earnings

花旗:港股吸引 9月可撈底

香港文匯報訊(記者 陳遠威)美聯儲交代退市計劃,意味美國經濟前景漸趨樂觀,市場普遍認為從事出口至當地業務的企業將可受惠,花旗私人銀行亞太區首席投資策略師John Woods昨表示,美國經濟持續改善,料第4季情況將更加正面,出口至美國的東北亞地區企業將獲得支持,加上東北亞股市估值吸引,該行已將中國大陸、香港及台灣列作增持評級,相信今年9月是中線入市時機。

出口企業將受惠美經濟改善
 John Woods認為美國退市對亞洲市場是「機多於危」,指短期亞洲區股市持續波動,是由於市場數月來擔憂美國退市及中國內地經濟增長放緩,令資金自亞洲區流出,故現時未必是短線入市時機。若持12至18個月觀點,由於7至8月受傳統季節性因素影響,投資者可在9月趁亞洲市場反彈及日股資金回吐外流,捕捉投資機會。

Hutchison Port Holdings Trust : Sluggish Apr-May Throughput In HIT But Attractive Yield (UOBKH)

Hutchison Port Holdings Trust
Share Price US$0.74
Target Price US$0.88
Sluggish Apr-May Throughput In HIT But Attractive Yield

Hutchison Port Holdings Trust’s HIT underwent a 20% yoy decline in throughput in Apr-May 13, due primarily to the strike at HIT. However, its Yantian port still outpaced competitors on better efficiency. We cut 2013 DPU forecast by 7%. Maintain BUY on attractive yield of 7.0% but lower our target price to US$0.88.

What’s New
• We visited Hutchison Port Holdings Trust (HPHT) in Hong Kong last week.

曾淵滄專欄 04.07.13:城鎮化利低檔消費

我相信目前在中國各大城市工作的農民工,儲蓄率是世界第一的,理由是這群人沒有戶籍,在所工作的城市中,享受不到任何社會福利,惟有靠自己的儲蓄來應付將來的金錢需要。

近來,城鎮化成了習李政權第一個最重要的大型規劃,這不是盲目的搞基建、建房屋,吸引更多農民工入城。盲目入城的農民工如果沒有工作,只會令社會增加不穩定的因素。因此,所謂城鎮化應該是戶籍改革,循序漸進地讓在城裏工作的農民工取得戶籍。有了戶籍,有了社會福利保障,就會捨得花錢,會接在農村的小孩、配偶、父母入城,他們入城後要消費,就會推動中國的內銷市場。

錢荒越冚越驚 中資股嚇散

【本報訊】紙能包得住火嗎?中宣部近期出手維穩內銀錢荒消息,對於財經媒體來說,絕對是罕有之舉。中央河蟹能頂住A股,反而令海外投資者憂慮越河蟹、錢荒越有內情,配合歐債新消息之下,港股昨日再被拋售,恒指勁挫511點收市。有專家認為,於目前環境下,中港股市難有條件反彈。

內地報章財經編輯透露,上周已收到中宣部的「宣傳通知」,要求避免用「錢荒」、「流動性匱乏」等字眼為文章命題。報社黨委書記亦於上星期中召開會議,指導員工修改報道方向,提出「中國並不缺錢,只是過去缺乏監管,令資源錯配了。」英國《金融時報》亦有相關報道,稱中宣部指令「要求闡述我國市場流動性是充份保障的」,該報道亦直指中宣部發指令給財經媒體,屬罕有之舉動。

Wednesday, July 3, 2013

Singapore's Temasek faces key tests over China banks

By Saeed Azhar and Anshuman Daga
SINGAPORE, July 3

(Reuters) - Singapore's sovereign investor Temasek Holdings Pte Ltd is coming under pressure to review its large exposure to Chinese banks as the world's second biggest economy is on track for its slowest growth in more than 20 years.

The city-state's AAA-rated wealth fund has poured billions of dollars into the biggest Chinese banks over the past few years including about $2.4 billion in the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China since 2012 alone.

A potty problem for Press Metal

PRESS METAL BHD
By AmResearch Sdn Bhd
Buy Fair Value: RM3.60

PRESS Metal announced on Bursa Malaysia that it had to shut down its Mukah plant in Sarawak due to the major power outage that happened last week (June 27), which caused a significant drop in temperature for the production pots.

Although power had since been restored, Press Metal was unable to resume metal production as solidification had taken place in the reduction cells of the potline.

Despite efforts, none of the pots could be salvaged. No person was harmed nor was there any uncontrolled emission at the incident.

亚航IOI马国际船务被点名 美元债多企业压力大

亚航IOI马国际船务被点名 美元债多企业压力大
Created 07/03/2013 - 12:46
(吉隆坡2日讯)分析员指,近期疲弱的令吉若年底来到兑1美元为3.20水平,将使债务以美元为主上市公司承担额外汇兑亏损与压力。

其中,如亚洲航空(AIRASIA,5099,主板贸服股)、马国际船务(MISC,3816,主板贸服股)和IOI集团(IOICorp,1961,主板种植股)这3家美元债务占整体债务超过80%的上市公司,在上述假设下将首当其冲,需承担额外汇兑亏损规模介于2亿2500万令吉至3亿4600万令吉。

企稳1700点至年底 外资抛售马股近尾声

企稳1700点至年底 外资抛售马股近尾声
Created 07/03/2013 - 07:50
(吉隆坡2日讯)外资抛售举动相信已接近尾声,富时隆综指料可稳守在目前超过1700点的水平至年底。

联昌国际信安资产管理公司区域总投资长邓智坚在该公司召开的市场前景与投资汇报会上表示,在波动时期,展现相对区域较小跌幅的大马市场,仍被视为资金的“避险天堂”。

“尽管近期全球股市受美国联储局表示,若美国经济持续改善将开始削减购债活动,以及对中国经济增长的担忧,引发热钱从亚洲撤走的反射动作(knee-jerkreaction)。”

成功多多估值打折扣

成功多多估值打折扣
Created 07/03/2013 - 11:05
(吉隆坡2日訊)成功多多(BJTOTO,1562,主板貿服組)將旗下大馬成功多多以商托方式在新加坡股市上市,加上在大馬也失去測字業領域唯一“代言”股項的優勢地位,皆使估值打折扣。

肯納格研究認為,預料有兩大因素,造成該公司估值溢價將縮減,包括大馬成功多多商托上市計劃,將減低吸引力,因為投資者將直接投資大馬成功多多商托,以攫取測字業務的現金流優勢。

第二項因素則是對手-馬化控股(MPHB,3859,主板貿服組)完成業務分拆後博測業將上市,使成功多多不再是本地測字領域的唯一代言股項。特別是馬化控股估值在本益比及周息率,皆比成功多多更具吸引力。

私下配售10%股權‧匯華產業籌4285萬

私下配售10%股權‧匯華產業籌4285萬
Created 07/03/2013 - 11:29
(吉隆坡2日訊)匯華產業(HUNZPTY,5018,主板產業組)宣佈,該公司建議私下配售10%股權的新股,計劃籌集約4千285萬令吉,充當營運資金及償還銀行貸款用途。

該公司發文告指出,該公司將私下配售最高2千380萬5千213股新股,或占公司繳足資本的10%水平。若以參考價1令吉80仙為准,料可籌得最高4千285萬令吉。

一旦落實上述私下配售計劃,其繳足資本最高可增加至2億6千185萬7千346令吉。

Glove makers to compete for international demand

Glove makers to compete for international demand
Features

Written by Elaine Boey  
Thursday, 27 June 2013 14:46

KUALA LUMPUR: In 2012, Malaysia exported about 100 billion pieces of rubber gloves, approximately 63% of the world’s supply, to more than 180 countries.

There are glove makers in other countries such as Thailand and Indonesia but locally listed Hartalega Holdings and Top Glove Corp are the global market leaders for nitrile and latex gloves respectively.

Improved outlook for steel sector

Improved outlook for steel sector
Insider Asia

Written by Insider Asia  
Monday, 01 July 2013 10:15

WHILE the operating environment for the local steel industry remains challenging, the outlook has improved somewhat over the last few months.

The listed steel players on Bursa Malaysia delivered a mixed bag of earnings results in the first quarter of 2013 (1Q13), but they were an improvement on the immediate preceding quarter.

US anti-dumping suit minimal impact on Pantech

US anti-dumping suit minimal impact on Pantech
Business & Markets 2013
Written by Kamarul Anwar of theedgemalaysia.com    
Wednesday, 03 July 2013 10:07

KUALA LUMPUR: PANTECH GROUP HOLDINGS BHD [] said there will only be a minimal impact from the US International Trade Commission's decision to continue with its anti-dumping suit against makers of welded stainless steel pipes from Malaysia, Vietnam and Thailand.

In a filing with Bursa Malaysia yesterday, the steel pipe maker said that last Friday, the commission voted to continue with the anti-dumping suit initiated by the US International Trade Administration of the Department of Commerce.

Icapital.biz gains 2% on 4Q profit surge

Hot Stock Icapital.biz gains 2% on 4Q profit surge
Business & Markets 2013
Written by Kamarul Anwar of theedgemalaysia.com    
Wednesday, 03 July 2013 10:45

KUALA LUMPUR (July 3): Investors chased shares of Icapital.biz Bhd after the only listed closed-end fund in Malaysia reported a 26-fold in its fourth quarter earnings due to the disposal of securities.

At 10:31 am, ICapital.biz was up four sen or 1.67% to RM2.43 with a trade volume of 730,200. The counter had a trading range of RM2.42 and RM2.46.

iCapital.biz records stellar 4Q

iCapital.biz records stellar 4Q
Business & Markets 2013
Written by Shalini Kumar of theedgemalaysia.com    
Wednesday, 03 July 2013 10:02

KUALA LUMPUR: ICAPITAL.BIZ BHD [] saw its net profit jump more than 26-fold to RM47.1 million during the fourth quarter ended May 31 (4QFY13), from RM1.7 million a year ago, due to gains from disposal of securities.

Revenue rose 10-fold to RM49.7 million, compared with RM4.6 million in 4QFY12, the closed-end fund said in a filing with Bursa Malaysia yesterday.

曾渊沧@股友通讯录 2013 年 06 月份

各位朋友
过去一个月,股市的波动相信会不少人感到压力很大,眼看海峡时报指数已经高升2007 年的历史高点越来越近时,美国联邦储备局突然发出退市的迅息,日本股市在急速上升了 9 个月之后,急速下跌,然后是中国的钱荒,多样坏消息一起出现,海峡时报指数也就一跌就跌至 3000 点边缘,跌幅超过 10%。

不过,过去 3 天,情况又急速的改变,反弹的力道也相当强。

这一轮的急跌,不是坏事。股市已连续上升了一年,其间没有出现任何显著的调整,吸引了越来越多的短炒者。这一轮急跌,淘汰了这一批人,使股市能更健康的发展。美国的退市阴影,基本上在现阶段仍只是吹风阶段,还没有到正式退市,美国储备局选择预告退市,就是让投资者做好心理准备,为退市做准备,减低股市的震动,因此,喊退市的美国,至今为止,股市的表现仍然世界第一,道琼斯指数只是微跌数个百份比,又回到 15000 点之上。

Cordlife Group: The Cords That Bind (MKE)

Cordlife Group
Share price: SGD0.88
Target price: SGD1.29 (new)
The Cords That Bind; Initiate at BUY

 Initiate with BUY and Street-high TP of SGD1.29. We initiate coverage on cord blood bank Cordlife with a BUY rating and a Street-high TP of SGD1.29, which offers 47% upside. With a strong platform to expand its product range combined with dominant positions in Singapore, Philippines, Indonesia and a strong presence in Hong Kong, India and China, it is poised to transform into Asia’s infant and maternal healthcare products champion over the next two years, riding the sweet side of both developed and emerging markets.

Vard Holdings: Lower profit guidance (OCBC)

Vard Holdings:
Fair value S$0.93
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.02
versus: Current price S$0.97

Lower profit guidance
• Earnings guidance for 2Q
• Brazil operations worse than expected
• Downgrade to HOLD

Vard Holdings warned that its 2Q2013 financial results (due 11/7/2013) are likely to be below current consensus estimates due to difficulties in its operations in Brazil. After a recent assessment, management found further delays, cost over-runs at its Niteroi yard due to lower-than-expected productivity, additional costs for outsourcing and higher start-up costs at the Promar yard.

Mapletree Logistics Trust: Strong take-up rates at MBLH (OCBC)

Mapletree Logistics Trust:
Fair value S$1.15
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.073
versus: Current price S$1.11

Strong take-up rates at MBLH
• MBLH secures 75% pre-commitment
• Redevelopment to complete in 4Q13
• 8-9% yield likely to be achieved

Mapletree Logistics Trust (MLT) announced that Menlo Worldwide Logistics has signed a binding commitment to lease 48,700sqm at MLT’s Mapletree Benoi Logistics Hub (MBLH) for a period of 10 years. Together with Menlo’s commitment which accounts for 55% of MBLH’s NLA, we understand the property is now 75% pre-leased, with the balance in the advanced stage of negotiation.

F&N Board to review strategic options (DBSV)

F & N, HOLD  S$8.58
F&N Board to review strategic options
Price Target : 12-Month S$ 9.52

•F&N Board to appoint advisors to review strategic options
•Capital distribution approved, ex-date likely on 19 July similar to date to restore free float
•Announcement not surprising, but indications came earlier than expected
•Maintain Hold and S$9.52 TP

Looking at restructuring. F&N’s Board announced that it will appoint advisors to study and review alternative strategic options available to the group to unlock shareholder value. The announcement went on to say that this may involve a segregation of the group’s property-related business from its non-property related businesses. No decision has yet been made on any strategic option or proposal and any option selected will proceed only upon receipt of all relevant approvals.

Bumitama Agri : More upside now(DBSV)

Bumitama Agri
BUY S$0.97
STI : 3,089.93
(Upgraded from HOLD)
More upside now

• FY13F-15F earnings revised by -3% - +19%; as we imputed changes in CPO ASP, weaker Rupiah
• The counter still has highest earnings growth prospects in the sector
• Capex to stay high on aggressive expansion plans, but operating expenses are expected to ease
• Rating raised to BUY on c.27% upside to revised TP of S$1.23 (based on DCF)

Raising expectations. Following changes to our CPO price forecasts, we revised Bumitama’s FY13F/14F/15F earnings by -3%/+19%/+16%, respectively. Despite reduced CPO prices, we expect the group to book 49% jump in next year’s earnings, thanks to 10% y-o-y higher CPO output and 8% y-o-y weaker Rupiah. Shorter term, we expect the group to book 39-46% q-o-q increase in 2Q13 earnings to between Rp202 bn and Rp221 bn; driven by 7% seasonal uptick in volume and c.3% recovery in CPO ASP.

Vard : 2Q to miss expectations (DBSV)

Vard
HOLD S$1.09
STI : 3,150.44
(Downgrade from BUY)
Price Target : 12-Month S$ 1.16 (Prev S$ 1.46)
2Q to miss expectations

• Expect 2Q13 to miss expectations due to cost overruns of Brazil projects
• A dampener on confidence; cut FY13/14F earnings by 11/7%
• Downgrade to HOLD; TP lowered to S$1.16

Guiding for a weak 2Q. Vard issued a profit guidance that 2Q13 earnings, to be released on July 11, would be below consensus. Earnings would be dragged by further delays and cost overruns at the Niterói yard in Brazil, resulting from lower than expected productivity, and additional cost of outsourcing the hull construction to subcontractors. This is exacerbated by higher start-up costs at the new shipyard, Vard Promar. We reckon the street was expecting a gradual recovery in earnings to c.NOK200m in 2Q13, from NOK151m in 4Q12 and NOK188m in 1Q13, based on Bloomberg consensus of NOK850m for FY13. Now, it seems there would be a setback in the upcoming results.

Plantation : Find value in Singapore(DBSV)

Plantation
Find value in Singapore

 Expect palm oil prices remain weak between now and end of the year on elevated inventories. CY13F/14F/15F CPO prices cut by 11%/2%/4%
We expect 2Q13 results to lag consensus; as realised CPO ASP is lower than market expectations
 Switch to Singapore listed planters (close to -1SD forward PE); accumulate others by year-end. Top picks: BAL, FR, WIL and IOI
 Key risks: Weak FFB yield recovery (upside), strong pick up in global economy (upside), further weakness in China’s economic growth (downside) trade barriers, erratic weather, crude oil price volatility

First Resources : Still undervalued(DBSV)

First Resources
BUY S$1.77
STI : 3,089.93
Price Target : 12-month S$ 2.18 (Prev S$ 2.14)
Still undervalued

• FY13F-15F earnings revised by -3% - +5%, as CPO ASPs are lifted due to forward contracts, offset by cut in smallholder FFB yields
• 2Q13 earnings to sequentially ease 11-21% on flat volumes, lower ASP
• Maintain BUY for 23% upside to revised TP of S$2.18

FY13F-15F earnings revised by -3% - +5%, after we imputed new CPO and RBD Olein ASP forecasts. In First Resources’ case, we applied a premium to spot ASP to account for long-term forward contracts entered between 2011 and 2012. We also cut the group’s smallholder output by 12% to account for YTD drop in yields, following significant jump last year. To cover for the shortfall, we assumed third-party FFB purchases to double y-o-y (raise by 15% from previous forecast).

IOI Corporation : Property value yet to be unlocked (DBSV)

IOI Corporation
BUY RM5.23
KLCI : 1,728.64
Price Target : 12-month RM 6.15 (Prev RM 6.25)
Property value yet to be unlocked

• FY13F-15F earnings revised by -5% - +4% on cuts in CPO price assumptions
• New planting reduced to 8k ha p.a. (from 10k ha); replanting raised to 5k ha p.a. (from 2.8-3.5k ha)
• TP (based on SOP) reduced to RM6.15; on lower Plantations and Manufacturing valuations
• BUY call reiterated for 18% upside. We believe the group’s property segment remains undervalued

Earnings adjusted for lower CPO price forecasts. We revised IOI’s forecast FY13/14/15 earnings by +4%/-5%/ - 3%, respectively, as we imputed lower CPO ASP, slightly lower own FFB harvested and higher replanting expenditure, as we raised replanting hectarage to 5k ha from 2.8k-3.0k ha p.a. We expect the group’s 4QFY13 earnings to arrive at RM270m (-52% q-o-q) on lower contribution from property, manufacturing and sequentially higher income tax.

Wilmar International : Time to accumulate(DBSV)

Wilmar International
BUY S$3.12
STI : 3,089.93
(Upgraded from HOLD)
Price Target : 12 months S$ 3.48 (Prev S$ 3.72)
Time to accumulate

 FY13F-15F forecasts lowered by 1-7% to account for lower CPO, soybean, sugar prices
 Expect 2Q13 earnings to weaken on weaker soybean crushing margin
 Rating is upgraded to BUY. Counter now offers 12% upside following recent drop

FY13F-15F earnings revised. Having imputed lower CPO, soybean, soybean oil and sugar prices, we cut Wilmar’s FY13F-15F earnings by 1-7%, mainly reflecting lower contribution from the group’s plantations segment. We have also lowered our expectation of the group’s oil palm estates’ expansion to 5k ha p.a. from 10k ha p.a. previously, in view of the drop since 2010. This would have repercussions on the counter’s fair value.

曾淵滄專欄03.07.2013:贏錢要捉阿爺思路

所有新政府上台,總會清理一下前任留下的問題,特別是經濟泡沫。今日,習李政權要清理的是市場過度槓桿化,是影子銀行,是貿易造假……不過,緊縮銀根治標不治本,必須從源頭尋找原因,才能徹底解決問題。投資者也必須有同樣思維,摸索領導人可能推出的政策,再推測其中的投資機會。

1998年亞洲金融風暴最嚴重的時刻,我曾經公開提出數個可能的解決方法,其中一個就是有某些國家的政府,可能會出手禁止貨幣自由兌換。貨幣一旦不能自由兌換,狙擊行動自然停止,因為心中有這一項我認為可以解決金融風暴的方法,當年我一見到馬來西亞、俄羅斯政府出手,宣佈馬來西亞貨幣不能自由兌換,宣佈俄羅斯債券作廢,導致對沖基金LTCM面臨倒閉,美國聯儲局緊急減息,我也信心十足入市買股票。那一天,我還寫了一篇文章報表在《蘋果日報》,文章題目是「買!買!買!」。

Tuesday, July 2, 2013

Chinese Malls Waive Rents as Vacancies Loom: Real Estate

Chinese Malls Waive Rents as Vacancies Loom: Real Estate
By Bloomberg News
July 02, 2013
A couple exit a Zara store, operated by Inditex SA, in the Wangfujing shopping district of Beijing. Photographer: Tomohiro Ohsumi/Bloomberg
Chinese landlords are forgoing rent and paying to outfit stores for mass-market fashion brands including Zara and H&M, a bid to blunt the impact of a boom in shopping-mall construction that threatens to push up vacancies.

Preferential leasing terms were reserved until recently for luxury brands such as Louis Vuitton and Gucci, which are coveted because they bring shoppers into malls. Now moderately priced labels are being enticed with offers as landlords work harder to fill shops, according to Cushman & Wakefield Inc. and RET Property Consultancy Ltd.

冶炼厂关闭重修 齐力工业盈利或受挫

(吉隆坡2日讯)受到砂拉越大停电的影响,齐力工业(PMETAL,8869,主板工业股)暂时关闭在木胶(Mukah)冶炼厂,这可能影响该公司的盈利,不过在三玛拉如(Samalaju)的冶炼厂可抵消部份负面影响。同时,该公司也將获得保险赔偿,这也会减缓公司所面临的衝击。

齐力工业週二跌1仙,或0.444%,以2.24令吉掛收。

齐力工业昨日宣佈,基于6月27日发生的重大停电事件,导致炼炉的温度大幅下挫,因而须关闭木胶冶炼厂。

儘管经歷长时间的救援行动,不过齐力工业在木胶的厂房仍然无法恢復生產,因为温度急剧下降而导致金属凝固。

新加坡保健业展望:模糊不清或是明确稳健?

新加坡保健业展望:模糊不清或是明确稳健?
文: 朱皓翔 , 李廷伟 (译:麦美莹) 2013年06月28日 展望
人们说,新加坡只得两个季节,干旱与雨季,但其实不大对。在过去几个星期,我们还遇上了一年一度的烟雾季节。我们的邻国马来西亚也受到烟雾的影响。虽然烟雾不会影响我们太久,但《股市资讯》想藉此机会,探讨这次烟雾来袭对保健业的影响及业内公司的未来展望。

近日如果外出,你可能留意到很多人都戴上了口罩,或许路上戴口罩的人,比例还高过医院,这都是拜这两个星期笼罩着新加坡上空的烟雾所赐,使国人一出门就戴上N95口罩或者是普通的外科手术口罩。

应对“热钱撤出” 风险 吸纳收益稳估值诱人股

应对“热钱撤出” 风险 吸纳收益稳估值诱人股
Created 07/02/2013 - 07:46
(吉隆坡1日讯)投资者情绪反复,预期市场将持续深陷波动格局,MIDF 投资研究就指出,拥有稳定收益、良好增长潜能和估值诱人,将是这波动阶段中的选股首要条件。

为迎合当前波动走势,该行宣布十大首选股行列重新调整,以应对未来数周甚至数月内“热钱撤出”将引致的卖压情况。

“在这段时期,我们将可见投资者的乐观和悲观情绪呈现拉锯战,反复的情绪将反映到波动的市场走势上。”

分析员指出,新首选股组合在收益、前景和估值上具备优势,将可在波动走势中超越大市。

一起当发展商(上篇):要致富搞地产

一起当发展商(上篇):要致富搞地产
Created 06/28/2013 - 15:24
有能力,谁不想有一两间房子在手?

当手上有好一些住宅或店铺之后,你就会转向购买地皮,等待发展列车开至时转售赚钱。

但是,买了再卖,是不是创富的最佳方法,想要增加赚幅可有其他方程式?

看着发展商赚得盘满砵满,你可想过,或许自己也可加入发展商行列?

《南洋商报》特别采访了多位专才,包括发展商、投资策略师、讲师和律师,向他们讨教要成为发展商的基本技术和知识。

ASTRO致力提升優質服務

ASTRO致力提升優質服務
Created 07/01/2013 - 11:38
ASTRO公司(ASTRO,6399,主板貿服組)在2012年表現保持強穩狀態,營業額增長10%至43億令吉,家庭電視的滲透率達到52%,增值產品與服務的採納保持偏高,此外,廣告的成長率達到9%,超出業界的平均水平。

2012年第三季,ASTRO開始分發股息,董事局建議截至2013年1月31日的財政年,派發每股1仙的終期股息,對持有ASTRO股票不到兩季的股東來說,這派息相等於每股4仙。

另外,對ASTRO而言,2012年是經營史上的一個里程碑,這年10月19日成功在主板上市,發行新股面對投資大眾的強大需求,公眾股的超額認購率超過6倍,至於機構投資者的超額認購率則超過30倍,發行新股為公司籌獲45億令吉收入。

Big jump in shipping rates Speculation is demand from China steelmakers rebounding

Updated: Monday July 1, 2013 MYT 7:01:26 AM
Big jump in shipping rates Speculation is demand from China steelmakers rebounding

London: The biggest jump in shipping rates since September is spurring speculation that demand from Chinese steelmakers is rebounding after stockpiles of the second biggest seaborne cargo dropped to a five-year low.

Rates for Capesizes, the largest iron-ore carriers, doubled in 10 days, a sign to ICAP Plc and Pareto Securities AS that more cargoes are being booked. The shipments would arrive in two to three months, boosting port stockpiles that fell to about 21 days of demand in April, the lowest level since 2007.

Healthcare In Singapore: Hazy Or Healthy?

 28 JUNE 2013
Healthcare In Singapore: Hazy Or Healthy?
By Louis Kent Lee and Choo Hao Xiang

When people say that Singapore goes through only two seasons – dry and rainy, they are forgetting something. Over the past few weeks, residents in the city-state experienced the annual haze season. Neighbouring nations such as Malaysia were also at the receiving end of the smoke. Short-term as the catalyst is, this prompted Shares Investment to examine the impacts on the healthcare sector and what lies ahead for these companies.

If you were out on the roads in Singapore recently, you would have spotted a lot of people donning masks. Perhaps, even proportionally higher than in a medical clinic. No thanks to the smog that had blanketed Singapore over the past fortnight, locals were seen wearing masks, be it the N95 mask or just a normal surgical mask, whenever they were in the open.

Croesus Retail Trust: Stability and growth (DBSV)

Croesus Retail Trust:
BUY (Initiating Coverage); S$0.945; CRT SP
Stability and growth
Price Target : 12-Month S$ 1.14

•Stable portfolio with good rental reversion growth prospects
•Visible inorganic growth opportunities to drive trust expansion
•Initiate with Buy call and TP of S$1.14

First Japan retail trust. Croesus Retail Trust (CRT) offers investors a unique exposure to the Japan retail real estate sector through a capital efficient vehicle with an initial portfolio of stable and growth-oriented assets. In addition to income stability, as a Singapore listed business trust, this platform offers NAV growth potential through CRT’s ability to undertake lower risk non-speculative development activities and diversify into higher growth overseas markets in the medium term as well as prospects of asset reflation in Japan in the longer run.

Starhill Global REIT: Prospects remain bright (OCBC)

Starhill Global REIT:
Fair value S$0.95
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.049
versus: Current price S$0.84

Prospects remain bright
• Exercise of CPU conversion right
• Minimal impact to DPU and book value
• Attractive fundamentals and valuations

Starhill Global REIT (SGREIT) announced that its convertible preferred unit (CPU) holders have notified the REIT manager of their intention to exercise their rights to convert a total of 152.7m CPUs into new units on 5 Jul. With the conversion, we estimate that the distribution to CPU holders will drop from an average of S$2.4m to just S$0.3m per quarter, leaving a larger distributable amount available to unitholders. However, as the unit base is expected to increase by 10.8% upon the conversion, the net impact is likely a marginal dilution of ~1.1% to pro forma FY12 DPU, according to management.

城门失火 殃及池鱼

城门失火 殃及池鱼
文: 桂浩明 2013年07月01日 展望
继股市出现“红五月”后,投资者纷纷憧憬6月份的市场能够延续上涨行情,挑战新高。但是,事与愿违的是,6月份股市不但没有上涨,相反出现了大跌,并且是创出了四年半来的新低。行情居然如此逆转,的确出乎大家的预料,因此深入研究导致这种状况的原委,让人们更加深刻地认识中国的资本市场,是有好处的。

虽然6月份的行情成为泡影,但是回过头来说,这更多还是因为偶发性因素所致。就实体经济而言,6月份与5月份并没有什么大的差异,换言之也就是说,看好5月份行情的依据,在6月份还是继续适用的。而6月份股市之所以会大跌,最主要的因素是来自于资金市场。更加准确地说,是来自于银行间的同业拆借市场。

Offshore stocks: Cherry-pick small caps after run-up in sector’s large caps, says DMG

WITH OIL PRICES having stabilised at an average level of US$93 per barrel over the past 12 months, Jason Saw and Lee Yue Jer — offshore sector analysts at local brokerage house DMG & Partners Research — have turned to a more selective stock-picking strategy to maximise returns. “Now that crude oil prices are flat, being selective is the best way to draw value from the offshore sector, which is what our strategy has been since we downgraded the large-cap offshore stocks at the end of last year,” Saw tells The Edge Singapore.

The way Saw sees it, the offshore sector is in a different situation from the one in 2006 to 2008, when oil prices were running up and caused the whole sector to run up as well. “At this point, most of the large-cap yards — despite their recent order wins — are unlikely to show as much upside as the market expects,” says Saw. For one thing, earnings at the yards are slowing down, with margins coming under pressure from the construction of new products and competition from overseas. Meanwhile, valuations are already on the high side, which limits further growth. Large-cap yards include rig builders Keppel Corp and Sembcorp Marine as well as commercial shipyard Yangzijiang Shipbuilding and offshore support vessel (OSV) builder Vard Holdings.

Weekend Comment Jun 28: Genting Singapore stays 'hazy'

THE HAZE THAT blanketed Singapore last week may have driven more people indoors; some commentators have quipped that Genting Singapore’s casino at Resorts World Sentosa may be seeing more business than its outdoor theme parks at the same venue.

But the outlook for Genting Singapore as a whole remains hazy owing to structural issues, particularly its single-market exposure. UOB KayHian analyst Vincent Khoo for one, expects weak earnings through 2014. “Genting Singapore continues to be dogged by difficult industry conditions – sluggish mass-market and VIP patronage,” Khoo writes in a Jun 28 report. And, what could potentially make the situation worse for casino operations is the recent credit crunch in China, although Khoo says it is still too early to gauge the impact on Genting Singapore, if there is any at all.

曾淵滄專欄:阿爺放火炒家叫好

上月29日,與石鏡泉在香港電台的節目中對話,我以周小川一邊放火一邊告訴大家他也準備好救火的水,來形容近日中國的錢荒現象。石鏡泉補充說,周小川在放火燒垃圾,但是,一個不小心就會變成印尼式的森林大火。

是的,放火燒垃圾的技巧要很高明,一不小心變成森林大火,要救就不容易,因此,短炒者的確要日日提防。到目前為止,沒有迹象顯示周小川已經停止燒垃圾。不過,從另一個角度來看,周小川如此做也的確為炒家帶來許多乘搭順風車的炒作條件,股市會出現多個V形、W形的反覆震動,有本事者大可以炒波幅,不想玩者就乾脆去度假,今日,我正與家人在沖繩島度假,明天晚上才回香港。

Wilmar to cut off palm suppliers caught burning in Indonesia

Wilmar to cut off palm suppliers caught burning in Indonesia
WRITTEN BY BLOOMBERG  
MONDAY, 01 JULY 2013 09:25

Wilmar International, the world’s largest palm oil trader, plans to cut ties with Indonesian suppliers that clear land with illegal fires after blazes engulfed Singapore in a record haze.

Wilmar, which bans burning on its own plantations, relies on third parties for more than 90% of the crude palm oil for its refineries. Sime Darby, the biggest publicly traded palm oil producer, also prohibits burning at its own plantations and relies on other sources for supplies, buying as much as half the commodity for its plants from others.

Vard Holdings :Brace for a Roller Coaster Ride (MKE)

Vard Holdings
Buy (unchanged)
Share price: SGD1.090
Target price: SGD1.52 (from SGD1.65)
Brace for a Roller Coaster Ride

 Vard warns of weaker 2Q13. Vard issued a profit warning stating that it expects 2Q13 net profit to be lower than current consensus market estimates. Further delays and cost overrun at the Niteroi yard in Brazil resulted in additional cost in outsourcing. Estimated start-up costs at the new Promar shipyard has also been revised higher. Vard would make further disclosures when it reports 2Q13 results on 11 July 2013.

Biosensors : Pullback provides buying opportunity (Nomura)

Biosensors
Target price Remains SGD 1.80
Closing price June 26, 2013 SGD 1.06

Lowering earnings but reiterating Buy
We lower our earnings for FY14F and FY15F by 6% to reflect the higher costs the group will likely incur as it expands its product base and supports its newly acquired medical imaging business. The higher costs, in our view, will be mitigated by stronger revenue growth from new product launches. We forecast EPS growth of 8% this year before accelerating to 15% CAGR over the following two years. We reiterate our Buy rating with a price target of SGD1.80.

下半年料震盪 最熊隨時跌兩成 基金憂港股未見底

下半年料震盪 最熊隨時跌兩成 基金憂港股未見底

【專訪】

港股年初係威係勢,但挑戰兩萬四點失敗後節節敗退,6月在美國退市及中國錢荒雙重夾擊下,最終以暴跌送走上半年,期間高低波幅逾4,000點。現階段雖有見底反彈迹象,惟基金界人士未敢輕言見底,齊聲高呼下半年繼續「chok」,較悲觀的芬佬更指QE結束後,大市隨時跌兩成,屬有波幅冇升幅格局。

Monday, July 1, 2013

Neratel : Myanmar Telco’s Real Singapore Beneficiary (OSK)

Neratel
Target Price: SGD0.79
Price: SGD0.63
Myanmar Telco’s Real Singapore Beneficiary

 Myanmar government announced the winners for the two coveted licenses to Norway’s Telenor and Ooredoo (formerly Qatar Telecom), which beat out SGX-listed Singtel and Yoma. In view of the fact that both victors are NeraTel’s established customers, we expect the latter to emerge as the sole Singapore winner in the Myanmar telco battle. Reiterate BUY with an unchanged TP of SGD0.79 as we look forward to a strong year ahead.

QE退场.回归基本面 经济好转助马股向上

(吉隆坡1日讯)来到2013年下半年,全球股市皆为第三轮量化宽鬆(QE3)进入倒数结束阶段感到担忧,但分析员认为,马股仍將在经济基本面好转的带动下,向1800点的年杪目標挺进。

大眾投资银行和MIDF研究分析员皆认为,QE3唱响终场曲,事实上也意味著经济好转。因此,资金的激烈流动將导致全球股市大幅波动,但最终仍將回归基本面,因此马股今年內料將在跌跌撞撞的情况下,继续走高至1800点水平。

MIDF研究维持富时大马综合指数的1800点年秒目標,而大眾投行则把年杪目標,从此前设定的1760点,上调至1805点。

綜合通運退出中國市場

綜合通運退出中國市場
Created 06/29/2013 - 11:17
(吉隆坡28日訊)綜合通運(ILB,5614,主板貿服組)建議以9億9千800萬人民幣(約5億1千930萬令吉)脫售中國兩家公司,退出挑戰加劇的中國市場。

完成脫售計劃後,該公司將變成淨現金公司,計劃採取必要步驟保留上市地位,並將適時公佈有關計劃。

該公司發文告說,透過持股70%的綜合通運(香港)有限公司賣出ISH物流(深圳II)有限公司和綜合通運河南(香港)有限公司的所有股權,預期可獲得1億7千800萬令吉盈餘。

碰觸到2013年的黃金礦商邊際成本,將是反彈機會?



經濟成長抗衡外資出走‧馬股下半年震盪難行

經濟成長抗衡外資出走‧馬股下半年震盪難行
Created 07/01/2013 - 17:37
(吉隆坡1日訊)馬股上半年走勢猶如過山車般忽起忽落,分析員認為基於全球結構性問題未解,加上外資潛在撤離恐慌,短期市場震盪情況恐越發激烈,相信馬股下半年增長之路將顛簸難行,而成功鑰匙握在經濟、家債等關鍵問題解決方案,以及萬眾期待的2014年財政預算案上。

大眾投資銀行指出,在美國貨幣振興計劃調整、中國在財政榮景和貨幣秩序取得平衡等全球結構性問題下,市場起伏和逆風可能越發強烈,儘管馬股下半年仍有上漲潛能,但相信受到美國潛在退市等消息干擾,任何流動性驅動熱情消退衝擊將抑制漲勢。

馬幣貶值敲響警鐘

馬幣貶值敲響警鐘
Created 07/01/2013 - 17:49
(吉隆坡1日訊)“收水”疑雲未令馬股拉警報,馬幣卻首當其衝,兌美元單月內暴跌2.8%,淪為區域最大輸家之一,惟分析員認為,馬幣隨熱錢流出的弱勢僅暫時性,目前的震盪不至於拉起全球金融風暴狂貶16%的警鐘。

龐大美元債務衝擊企業盈利

然而,馬幣疲態拖長唯恐動搖擁有龐大美元債務的公司盈利,部份業務成本由美元主導的領域媒體、汽車、航空,也料淪為馬幣貶值潮的輸家,反觀,擁有美元收入的領域,如手套、國油化學、建築和油氣公司,卻成了大贏家。

DIBS非房價飆升主因

DIBS非房價飆升主因
Created 07/01/2013 - 17:30
(吉隆坡1日訊)大馬房地產發展商會(REHDA)認為,發展商承擔利息計劃(DIBS)並不是國內房價飆升的主因,因而不認同國家銀行欲箝制DIBS的舉措。

該商會會長拿督斯里任廣財接受《星洲財經》詢問時透露:“國行有意與我們(商會)洽談,我們仍等待相關安排。”

他強調,REHDA的立場是期望DIBS可持續推行,減輕置業者的負擔,直到產業建竣才開始攤還供款。

“DIBS的出發點是好的,特別是讓欲從小屋換大屋的購屋者,不必在施工期間承受額外成本,國行不應該廢除DIBS。”

資本投資‧價值為上

資本投資‧價值為上
Created 07/01/2013 - 11:29
2012年,馬股上演了罕見的外國對衝基金狙擊馬股的戲碼,被狙擊的資本投資(ICAP,5108,主板封閉式基金組)成了戲裡的主角,劇終,創辦人兼董事經理陳鼎武以“他來我走”的一席話,撼動了小股東,成功驅趕外敵……


儘管事過境遷,陳鼎武對於那難忘的轉折點似乎仍心有餘悸,外敵降低持股權也並未讓他鬆一口氣,他淡淡地說“我無法在公開市場中阻止類似劇情重演,惟那件事加強了我對放眼正確投資者的堅持……”

FIRST RESOURCES : No Hotspots Spotted So Far(UOBKH)

FIRST RESOURCES                      
Share Price S$1.76
Target Price S$2.60
 Hi/Lo: US$2.20/1.65
No Hotspots Spotted So Far

No hotspot has been spotted on FR’s Riau estates so far. The haze problem might affect the productivity of harvesters and slow down the transportation of FFB or CPO. The downstream business is getting competitive as new capacities are coming on stream slowly, but this has been partly offset by biodiesel demand from the EU as the anti-dumping issue has been concluded with FR being charged 0%. Maintain BUY. Target price: S$2.60.

What’s New
Key takeaway from meeting with First Resources’ (FR) management. Riau’s estates (approximately 65% of total mature areas) are not affected by the current peat fire. Management is keeping its FFB production growth guidance at 10% for 2013. However, if the haze problem worsens in Riau areas, this might have an impact on harvesting and transporting to mills, refineries or port.

Mapletree Commercial Trust : Over-correction in share price(CS)

Mapletree Commercial Trust
Upgrade to OUTPERFORM
Price (26 Jun 13, S$) 1.15
TP (prev. TP S$) 1.45 (1.45)
Over-correction in share price: Starting to see value again, supported by resilient fundamentals

● We upgrade MCT from Neutral to OUTPERFORM following its recent share price weakness, where share price has fallen some  25% from its S$1.54 peak on 14 May (second worst after CRCT).

● We believe the selling has been overdone as fundamentals continue to be resilient, underpinned by its quality retail assets (mainly VivoCity) and long leases at two of its three offices. We view this as an opportunity to accumulate quality at cheaper valuations.

CapitaLand : Oversold On Tapering Concerns (UOBKH)

CapitaLand
Share Price S$3.05
Target Price S$4.45
Oversold On Tapering Concerns

We see value emerging from CapitaLand, which has been sold down 32% from its February high, worse than any of the S-REITs. The recent acquisitions totalling S$763.5m of a mixed site in Shanghai and a prime landed property in Singapore result in an RNAV accretion of 5 S cents (0.8%) a share. Maintain BUY; target price: S$4.45. The stock is currently trading at a steep 42% discount to its RNAV.

What’s New
• Oversold on tapering and China concerns. We see good value emerging in CapitaLand, which has been sold down 32% (from February high of S$4.03). The pace of the selldown is worse than any of the S-REITs and is among the worst for developers under our coverage. Key concerns for CapitaLand include a slowdown in China and rising interest rates, which could deter homebuying.

FIVE STRATEGIES FORTHIS ENVIRONMENT (CIMB)

FIVE STRATEGIES FORTHIS ENVIRONMENT
3.1 Strategy #1: long banks, short REITs
Our regional strategists take the view that a mentality shift towards higher yields is underway, even if potentially and periodically interrupted. Yields might not rise in a straight line but the direction is a one-way bet. Speakers at our Asian Pacific Conference highlight that it is very difficult for central banks to perform an exit strategy for QE. If central banks delay their exit because it is difficult to end QE gracefully, the implication for Asia is that we are stuck with fairly low interest rates for a while and a conscious fear of rising rates. Intermittently, as QE unwinding fears ramp up, Asian markets will see an unwinding of valuation multiples, according to our regional strategists. For Singapore, we believe that one longer-term pair trade to play this trend is to long banks and short REITs. Over time, a gradually rising interest rate environment will widen net interest margins for banks and crimp debt-assisted DPU for the REITs, plus narrow comparative yield spreads.

Singapore Strategy: Look for value in a slow-growth, rising rate world (CIMB)

Look for value in a slow-growth, rising rate world
Markets worry about the end of cheap money. As Asian markets have benefited from cheap money in the past, an unwinding of valuation multiples is likely. When perceptions of “risk-free” rise and multiples shrink, earnings growth becomes the all-important differentiator.


S-REIT: Lower Prices Do Not Equate To Better Value (OSK)

S-REIT:  Lower Prices Do Not Equate To Better Value
 The Singapore REIT (SREIT) market has remained volatile as concerns over US monetary policies continue to spook the market. Over the last one and half months, the FSTREI has corrected by c.16.8% from its peak while the long-term yield curve has spiked up steeply. We expect bond yields to stabilise at this level while remaining prudent on the SREIT market due to the potential of rising debt costs.

• Bond yields rise over the last one and half month. Over the last 45days, the SREIT market has pulled back by about 16.8%, as yield spreads were compressed on the back of the recent spike in Singapore 10-year Government bond yields. As the global market remains concerned over the unwinding of the qualitative easing (QE) program in the US, bond yields have risen from 1.4% on 30 April to 2.4% on 21 June (+71%) during this period.

Mapletree Logistics Trust : Lacking in catalysts (CIMB)

Mapletree Logistics Trust
Current S$1.04
Target S$1.08
Lacking in catalysts

Underpinned by its long WALE (more than five years) and high occupancy, lease renewals andhence rental reversions should be fairly limited each year. Funding costs could be on the rise, capping upside in accretion from acquisitions.

We keep our DPUs but lower our DDM-based target price, now based on a higher discount rate of 8.1% (previously 7.1%; raised across the board following higher bond yields). Our estimates factor in S$150m of acquisitions for FY14. Maintain Neutral on a lack of catalysts for now.

Mapletree Industrial Trust : Lacking compelling catalysts (CIMB)

Mapletree Industrial Trust
Current S$1.30
Target S$1.41
Lacking compelling catalysts

We expect positive rental reversions on MINT’s flatted factories and asset enhancements to mitigate any vacancy concerns. Some value has emerged in the wake of the broad-based selldown but we maintain our Neutral call, pending clarity on back filling at the Signature.

We trim our FY14-16 DPUs on adjustments to the pace of leasing for upcoming asset enhancements. We cut our DDM-based target price due to a higher discount rate of 8.1% (previously 7.3%) on a sector-wide adjustment. We see re-rating catalysts from greater certainty of backfilling and clarity on longer-term growth.

曾淵滄-股市资讯专栏 28.06.13

曾渊沧博士专栏
文: 曾渊沧博士 2013年06月28日 曾渊沧博士专栏
美国联储局5月22日开完议息会议,主席伯南克第一次向全世界宣布联储局准备退市。当天全球股市狂跌。之后,美股又逐渐回升。市场乐观估计,伯南克可能在6月19日又一次的议息会议后,会讲一些纾缓市场紧张情绪的话,以避免全球股市因退市阴影而大跌。结果市场失望了。伯南克在这次议息会议后,进一步以更肯定的语气说很快会开始减少买债,退市的讯息更加强烈。伯南克清楚地说,很可能短时间内就会减少买债。此话一出,全球股市再度狂跌。

世界上没有不散的QE,美国不可能永远无穷无尽地买债,不计后果地买债。最终结果是美元失去国际一哥的地位。因此,在适当时刻,退市是必要的。

颜子伟: 尝试体会一个没有热钱的新世界!

尝试体会一个没有热钱的新世界!
文: 颜子伟 (译:麦美莹) 2013年06月28日 展望
两星期前,当联储局主席伯南克透露刺激措施将会逐渐缩减时,我们看到了市场出现在过去一年多以来最严重的调整。 由于投资者已习惯活在一个充满热钱的股市里,因此在消息传出后,他们纷纷把手头上的股票、债券及黄金出售,甚至连那些错过了整个升势的买家,也不愿意进场趁低吸纳。

当伯南克出来安抚投资者时,股市回升,因为大家认为这只是一场误会,导致抛售出现。道琼斯工商指数尝试从15,000点低位攀升至15,340点高位,但当伯南克在联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)会议结束后的记者会中确定一旦美国失业率回落至7%,联储局在今年内将会减少购债及在2014年中全面退出第三轮量化宽松(QE 3)政策后,股市应声下滑。

財經專題: 港股10年 怨氣未消

時光飛逝,03年首次7.1大遊行距今10年,由董建華到曾蔭權到梁振英,民怨沒有最大只有更大。事實上,雖然港股其間累升超過一倍,但股壇怨氣依然存在——延長交易時間令經紀加「辛」不加薪,大戶操控變本加厲令散戶更形被動,新政府無能亦令股評人心死。股市縱然暢旺,笑聲卻由甜變苦。

【2003】沙士衝擊
沙士病毒於2002年底在中國廣東省爆發,其後迅速擴散至香港,最終導致299港人死亡。本港經濟大受打擊,股樓齊挫,恒指於2003年4月25日低見8409點,較2000年科網潮高位大跌54%。其後疫症受控加上中央推出自由行及CEPA等措施,港股終走出熊市陰霾。

Sunday, June 30, 2013

花旗:港股年內挑戰二萬四

花旗:港股年內挑戰二萬四
http://paper.wenweipo.com   [2013-06-28]      
 香港文匯報訊(記者 陳遠威)港股急挫後回升,花旗銀行環球個人銀行服務投資策略及研究部主管張敏華昨表示,美國聯儲局縮減買債規模,加上內地經濟增長減慢,股市顯著調整,料短期難有大升動力,下半年仍維持上落市格局。但港股估值正低於平均水平,而企業盈利增長預期維持7%以上,相信可支持恒指未來12個月內挑戰24,000點,跌至20,000點以下時應有較大阻力。

 張敏華表示,預料內地第二季經濟增長放緩,該行已下調今年全年經濟增長預測至7.6%。今年秋季舉行的三中全會可望令政策明朗化,該行看好受惠城市化發展的板塊,包括內房、消費必需品、非必需消費品、資訊科技及保險等;對能源及物料股則態度審慎。

在云顶新加坡的运气欠佳?可能澳门的赌桌对你有利!

在云顶新加坡的运气欠佳?可能澳门的赌桌对你有利!
文: 李金婷 (译:伍丽芳) 2013年06月28日 展望
云顶新加坡(Genting Singapore)因其贵宾赌客业务的表现下滑而暂时失去了光辉。反观澳门赌业却持续展现实力,其5月份的收入上升13.5%,主要因各大赌场业者拓展业务。也许,这是我们转向投资澳门赌业的时候?

两年过去了,投资者依旧怀疑云顶新加坡是否是另一只予人希望但却无法交出成绩的股票。实际上,云顶新加坡的财务表现和其股价一样欠佳。尽管贵宾赌客的赌注额创下新高,但由于公司对贵宾赌客的赢率下降,公司再次录得疲弱的季度业绩。一连串的不利消息持续燃烧,分析师目前把其对公司的行情从“看涨”转移至“看跌”,因为公司贵宾赌客赌注额增加的情况并不会持久。

中国总理收紧银根将可能令中国经济增长无法达标

中国总理收紧银根将可能令中国经济增长无法达标
文: 彭博社 (译:伍丽芳) 2013年06月28日 展望
由于中国展开10年来最大规模的信贷紧缩行动,使到中国经济自1998年亚洲金融危机以来,在总理李克强的领导下首次无法达致年度增长目标的机率提高。

高盛(Goldman Sachs)和中国国际金融公司在2013年6月24日联同巴克莱(Barclays)和汇丰(HSBC)等银行将它们对中国今年的经济增长所作的预测调低至7.4%,这低于中国政府的7.5%目标。在调低增长预测之前,中国央行收紧了流动资金,令隔夜回购利率(overnight repurchase rate)于6月24日升至年均水平的逾一倍。

之前曾在世界银行任职的苏格兰皇家银行(Royal Bank of Scotland)驻香港首席中国经济师谷吉斯(Louis Kujis)说:“中国现任的领导班子正尝试以有别于之前施政的方式来建立名望,之前的中国政府一般认为经济增长目标是神圣的,无论情况如何都必须达标。”

恒阳石化物流获得MEGCIF5机构投资者的注资

恒阳石化物流获得MEGCIF5机构投资者的注资
文: 陈挚文 (译:朱爱伦) 2013年06月28日 企业摘要
恒阳石化物流(Hengyang Petrochemical Logistics)是一家不大受经纪行注意的凯利板上市公司,其股价从今年初的0.21元攀升了超过30%至6月19日的0.33元。公司的股价飙涨意味着投资者对公司具有信心,并预期公司的收入和净利会在它为策略投资计划取得融资后增加。以下内容将探讨公司最新的发展。

恒阳石化物流是专门为石化及石油产品业提供物流服务。它获得了机构投资者MEGCIF Investments 5 (MEGCIF5) 为其在扬子江的拓展计划注资2亿7,125万人民币。此外,所获注资也将用于回购位于武汉和重庆的两家子公司的余下40%股权。公司是分别在FY12和1Q13把两家子公司的股权脱售给金桥化工,以减低负债。

热门股: 为量化宽松政策结束做好准备

热门股: 为量化宽松政策结束做好准备
文: 汪文龙 (译:麦美莹) 2013年06月26日 展望
最新消息显示,美国联邦储备局的购债计划很可能在2014年底终结,而预计在今年最后一季之前,购债的步伐将会逐渐放缓。随着购债计划即将结束,长期利率预期将会上升。

虽然联邦储备局说过,短期利率最低限度将会维持在目前接近零的水平直至2015年,但投资者认为最新的形势代表着一个时代的终结 – 低利率时代。 当低利率时代接近尾声时,所有企业都必须面对资金成本增加这个现实。

Dah Chong Hong : Engine Not Kick-started Yet (UOBKH)

DCH Holdings (1828 HK)
Share Price HK$6.44
Target Price HK$6.70
Engine Not Kick-started Yet

Management of DCH and Sparkle Roll both indicated that sales and prices of super-luxury cars including Bentley, Rolls Royce, Lamborghini remained weak. For DCH, we think the sales weakness could be partly offset by resilient growth in after-sales services and its operations in HK. We maintain HOLD on DCH as we think the recent share price correction has factored in the worst-case scenario. Target price: HK$6.70. Entry price: HK$5.50.

Singamas : Highly Visible Recovery Underway (UOBKH)

Singamas Container Holdings (716 HK)
52-week high/low HK$2.32/HK$1.56
Share Price HK$1.64
Target Price HK$2.20

Major Shareholders
PIL 39.5

Highly Visible Recovery Underway

We initiate coverage on Singamas with a BUY call and set target price at HK$2.20. Singamas will enjoy a 15% CAGR in global container demand in 2013-15 and the new capacity will help it to grab market share. Current valuation of 0.8x and 8.2x 2013F PE and P/B is attractive and recent share price weakness offers good buying opportunity.

Container Manufacturing : Recovery Underway (UOBKH)

Container Manufacturing

Recovery Underway; Initiate With OVERWEIGHT
We initiate coverage on the China container manufacturing sector with an OVERWEIGHT rating, and on both CIMC and Singamas with BUY ratings. In 2013-15, we will see a 15% CAGR in global container demand. For pricing, we project a 6% decline in ASP in 2013 but margins will remain resilient on steel price weakness. Recent share price weakness offers good entry opportunities for both stocks.

What’s New
• We initiate coverage on the China container manufacturing sector with an OVERWEIGHT rating, and on both China International Marine Containers (CIMC, 2039 HK) and Singamas Container Holdings (Singamas, 716 HK) with BUY ratings.

Hai-O - Bouncing Back

Hai-O -
Price Target:2.91
Last Price:2.65
Bouncing Back

Hai-O’s FY13 results were  in  line  with  consensus  estimates  but  above our forecasts. Its top- and bottomline grew 11.9% and 31%  y-o-y as the MLM  and  wholesale  divisions  recovered.  The  company  proposed  a single-tier final DPS of 8 sen for the quarter under review. We upgrade the  stock  to  a  BUY,  with  a  higher  MYR2.91  FV,  as  we  roll  over  our valuation to FY14.

- Better all round. Hai-O (HAIO)’s revenue and core earnings expanded 11.9%  and  31%  y-o-y  respectively,  largely  supported  by  better performance  from  its  multi-level  marketing  (MLM)  and  wholesale divisions.

Malaysian Airline System - Still In a Rough Patch

Malaysian Airline System -
Price Target:0.43
Last Price:0.30
Still In a Rough Patch

We see opportunities to trade in Malaysian Airline System (MAS) shares given the recent price weakness. The airline continues to post positive operating  stats  that  show  that  it  is  on  track  to  a  recovery,  but  we  still see  embedded  risks  as  the  group’s  depressed  yield  may  dampen Management’s turnaround  efforts.  In  view  of  the  38%  potential  upside, we upgrade MAS to Trading BUY, with our FV unchanged at MYR0.43.

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Warren E. Buffett(沃伦•巴菲特)
Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful
别人贪婪时我恐惧, 别人恐惧时我贪婪
投资只需学好两门课: 一,是如何给企业估值,二,是如何看待股市波动
吉姆·罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)
“错过时机”胜于“搞错对象”:不会全军覆没!”
做自己熟悉的事,等到发现大好机会才投钱下去

乔治·索罗斯(George Soros)

“犯错误并没有什么好羞耻的,只有知错不改才是耻辱。”

如果操作过量,即使对市场判断正确,仍会一败涂地。

李驰(中国巴菲特)
高估期间, 卖对, 不卖也对, 买是错的。
低估期间, 买对, 不买也是对, 卖是错的。

Tan Teng Boo


There’s no such thing as defensive stocks.Every stock can be defensive depending on what price you pay for it and what value you get,
冷眼(冯时能)投资概念
“买股票就是买公司的股份,买股份就是与陌生人合股做生意”。
合股做生意,则公司股份的业绩高于一切,而股票的价值决定于盈利。
价值是本,价格是末,故公司比股市重要百倍。
曹仁超-香港股神/港股明灯
1.有智慧,不如趁势
2.止损不止盈
成功者所以成功,是因为不怕失败!失败者所以失败,是失败后不再尝试!
曾淵滄-散户明灯
每逢灾难就是机会,而是在灾难发生时贱价买股票,然后放在一边,耐性地等灾难结束
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