Saturday, June 29, 2013

Press Metal - All Set To Take Off

Press Metal -
Price Target:3.31
Last Price:2.33
All Set To Take Off

Findings  from  our  visit  to  Press  Metal’s  (Press)  Samalaju  smelter confirmed our view that the plant’s commissioning is well on track and its  production  volume  is  set  to  multiply.  The  current  distressed aluminium  price  infers  that  a  rebound  could  lift  Press’  FY13F/FY14F earnings  by  152.9%/77.8%.  We  reaffirm  our  BUY  rating,  with  an unchanged  MYR3.31  FV,  which  is  a  20%  discount  to  its  fully  diluted conservative DCF, implying 10.4x FY13F and 5.9x FY14F P/Es.

辛辛苦苦60年,陸股跌到建國底?



Fed:QE將退場!全球所有市場應聲倒地?


曾渊沧:港股资金充裕 长线投资者入市

美股连升3日,道指重上15000点,港股也有不错的反弹,不过,中国A股依然不济,6月25日出现大反弹,但之后的两日就无力再升,信心明显不足。

美国联储局过去两次开会都放风说要退市,也曾经引起全球市场的震动。不过,我也曾经指出,联储局的吹风会目的就是让市场做好退市准备,适应退市,而且退市是先减少购债,最后才加息,加息日期仍然相当遥远。因此,美国股市在震动之后,反弹得也快。当然,今后会继续受退市阴影所影响,必须靠上市企业的利润来维持股价。

央行在测试市场承受力

A股的问题比较严重,很明显的,这是中国政府最高领导层的政策,由人民银行来执行。通过紧缩货币供应来挤掉市场的过度杠杆化,打击影子银行,驱赶非法潜入的海外热钱,这是人民币走向开发,股市走向开放的必要过程,旨在测试市场能够承受的压力。将来有一天,人民币全面开放,自由兑换,A股、B股、H股、N股全面合并,自由购买,必然会引来国际大鳄的狙击。

柔州下半年更亮眼

柔州下半年更亮眼
Created 06/21/2013 - 13:48
依斯干达特区去年有好几项发展计划及交通建设建竣及启用,带动柔州经济,也推动新山的房产市场。

在第13届大选尘埃落定后,业界和分析员都看好柔佛房市下半年会继续发光发热。

大选落幕股市上扬 柔房产急起直追

去年下半年,受到第13届大选迟迟未宣布的影响,柔州房产购兴受到影响,交投放缓。

综合通运港子公司 5.1亿脱售2公司

综合通运港子公司 5.1亿脱售2公司
Created 06/29/2013 - 10:15
(吉隆坡28日讯)综合通运(ILB,5614,主板贸服股)旗下香港子公司,以9亿9800万人民币(5亿1930万令吉)脱售深圳和河南子公司。

综合通运持有70%的子公司———综合物流(香港)有限公司,与CJH投资公司旗下的Winfair国际控股有限公司签署买卖合约。

综合通运分别以8亿4300万人民币及1亿5500万人民币,把ISH物流深圳有限公司,以及综合物流河南(香港)有限公司的所有股权,脱手给Winfair国际控股。

建筑维修业务带动 富达放眼盈利增15%

建筑维修业务带动 富达放眼盈利增15%
Created 06/29/2013 - 10:24
(加影28日讯)富达(PRTASCO,5070,主板建筑股)放眼在建筑及维修业务的带动下,现财年盈利会增长10%至15%。

富达董事经理拿督张吉平日前在股东常年大会后表示,继去年分别贡献5亿7700万令吉和1亿400万令吉营业额后,建筑及维修业务现财年将取得更优越的表现。

目前,透过5项长期公路维修合约与特许经营权,我们仍为大约1万4000公里的联邦及州际公路进行维修工作。”

财测目标价上调 海鸥多层次行销带动盈利

财测目标价上调 海鸥多层次行销带动盈利
Created 06/29/2013 - 11:43
(吉隆坡28日讯)海鸥(HAIO,7668,主板贸服股)2013财年业绩符合市场预期,分析员也一致看好多层次行销可继续稳定带动集团盈利,纷纷上修盈利预测和目标价。

随着多层次行销和批发业务表现更优异,海鸥2013财年营业额和核心盈利分别按年增长11.9%及31%。

集团旗下各别业务的营收纷纷报捷,其中多层次行销按年扬升18.4%,批发业务更激增182%。

此外,两大主要业务的税前盈利亦分别扬升24%及45%。

PhillipCapital Weekly Market Watch 26.06.2013 -Amara



Super Grille: Axis REIT



Super Grille : YTL Group of Companies



馬化學積極創新

馬化學積極創新
Created 06/27/2013 - 18:08
(吉隆坡27日訊)馬化學(CCM,2879,主板工業產品組)展開一系列產品創新計劃,並有信心可藉創新計劃推動該公司業務成長的同時能為未來成長舖路。

該公司董事經理阿米如表示,該公司目前正進行的策略措施包括透過創新與協調,專注並擴展化學業務產品組合至高賺幅產品。

“我們將專注透過研究與發展工作來提昇產品組合、改善營運效率以及捕捉新興市場的成長機會。”

他強調,科技創新是迎合要求高的客戶的關鍵要素,同時也能讓該公司保持競爭力及強化核心業務的市場領導位置。

长期营收能力强 小型建筑股趁势崛起

长期营收能力强 小型建筑股趁势崛起
Created 06/27/2013 - 10:30
(吉隆坡26日讯)建筑大型股涨潮在大选后显露疲态,反倒估值尚低小型股趁势崛起,券商看好小型股得以应对备具挑战的赚幅压力,且具有长期营收能力,建议投资者给予关注。

政府在经济转型执行方案(ETP)下推出更多大型基建计划,不仅是大型建筑公司受惠,中小型建筑业者也能从中分一杯羹。

再者,石油及天然气领域一片欣荣,大型合约不断释出,同样利于建筑公司参与其中基建工程,为建筑领域展望增添光彩。

Integrated Logistics unit to sell stakes in two firms for RM519m

The Star Online > Business
Saturday June 29, 2013
Integrated Logistics unit to sell stakes in two firms for RM519m

PETALING JAYA: Integrated Logistics Bhd announced that its indirect 70%-owned subsidiary, Integrated Logistics (HK) Ltd (IL HK) has agreed to dispose of its entire equity interest in ISH Logistics (Shenzhen II) Ltd (IL Shenzhen) and Integrated Logistics Henan (HK) Ltd (IL Henan) to Winfair International Holdings Ltd for 988 million yuan (RM519.3mil).

Integrated Logistics told Bursa Malaysia that it expected a pro forma gain of RM178mil from the disposals. It plans to use the proceeds for strategic acquisitions within the same industry.

Winfair International is a subsidiary of C.J.H. Investment Co Ltd, which has guaranteed the performance of the purchaser’s obligations under the agreement.

Sunway excited over Iskandar project

The Star Online > Business
Saturday June 29, 2013
Sunway excited over Iskandar project

By THEAN LEE CHENG
leecheng@thestar.com.my

IT may seem rather nondescript but the appointment of joint managing directors and the presence of Kumar Tharmalingam over at the Sunway group may be an indication of the direction the company would like to take. Or at least, the market it would like to have.

Sarena Cheah and Ong Pang Yen were appointed as joint managing directors of the property development division at Sunway Bhd effective May 1. They replace Ho Hon Sang who left at the end of last month.

Hai-O Enterprise Bhd - Sterling earnings growth

Hai-O Enterprise Bhd -
Price Target:3.00
Last Price:2.65
Sterling earnings growth

Period     4Q13/FY13

Actual vs.  Expectations   The FY13 net profit (NP) of RM47.4m came in slightly above the street’s estimate of RM43.9m by 8%. However, it was on the dot of our forecast of RM47.3m.

Dividends    Hai-O has proposed a final single-tier interim dividend of 8 sen for FY13, which was higher than last year’s 7 sen and brought the full-year total DPS to 14 sen. The total DPS was 10.8% higher than our forecast of 12.6 sen, implying an attractive yield of 5.3%.

CapitaMalls Asia: A Good Opportunity To Short On Rebound?

 28 JUNE 2013
CapitaMalls Asia: A Good Opportunity To Short On Rebound?
By Robin Han

CapitaMalls Asia is a weak stock in the market. The stock has been dropping since early February 2013, long before the recent severe drop in Straits Times Index. Up till now, there is no sign of turning for the downtrend.

However, CapitaMalls Asia rebounded in the past few days, which provides a good opportunity to short on rebound. Besides, the stock was unable to close at the high end of the candle, indicating that sellers are still in control.

Little Luck With Genting Singapore? Try Switching To Macau Casinos!

28 JUNE 2013
Little Luck With Genting Singapore? Try Switching To Macau Casinos!
By Jade Lee

Genting Singapore (GS) has temporarily lost its shine hammered by its declining VIP segment. Painting a different picture, Macau’s gaming industry continues to show strength with revenue for the month of May surging 13.5 percent mainly driven by expansion of various casino operators. Perhaps, it is time for us to switch to Macau’s gaming industry?

Two years on, investors are still wondering whether GS is another stock that was long on promise but not results. In fact, GS’ financial performance has been as disappointing as its share price with the firm posting yet another weak quarter due to lower VIP win rate despite record high VIP betting volume. Parade of bad news continue with analysts now shifting sentiments from “bullish” to “bearish”, saying that the performance for GS’ VIP betting volume is not sustainable.

Eye on Stock -HAP Seng Consolidated

The Star Online > Business
Saturday June 29, 2013
Eye on Stock

HAP Seng Consolidated Bhd rebounded from the RM1.87 floor and charged past the RM2 psychological mark to achieve a high of RM2.05 yesterday, the best level since March 2011, in the wake of fresh bargain-hunting interest.

The spike in share price over the past several days suggests that the recent mild correction following a nice rally, has come to an end.

Going forward, this stock is likely to scale, with the sighting of a tentative positive breakout on the daily bar chart. However, trading volumes must expand accordingly to sustain the trend ahead.

Hengyang’s Growth Plans Boosted By MEGCIF5’s Capital Injection

28 JUNE 2013
Hengyang’s Growth Plans Boosted By MEGCIF5’s Capital Injection
By Nicholas Tan

A relatively under-covered stock on the secondary board, Hengyang Petrochemical Logistics has seen its share price increased more than 30 percent year till date, from $0.21 at the start of the year to a trading high of $0.33 on 19 June 2013. The surge in stock price marks a confidence by investors that the company might see a surge in revenue and net profit after securing the necessary financing for its strategic investment plans. Read on to find out more on Hengyang’s latest developments.

Hengyang Petrochemical Logistics, a Catalist-listed company specialising in providing logistics services to petrochemical and oil products, brought in an institutional investor, MEGCIF Investments 5 (MEGCIF5) to invest Rmb271.25 million in its growth expansion plans along the Yangtze River. Additionally, the funds secured will also be used to buy-back the remaining 40 percent equity stakes in two of Hengyang’s subsidiaries in Wuhan and Chongqing, which were offloaded back in FY12 and 1Q13 respectively to Jinqiao Chemical to reduce the group’s gearing ratio.

Gabriel Gan : Attempting To Grasp A Whole New World Without Cheap Money!

 28 JUNE 2013
Attempting To Grasp A Whole New World Without Cheap Money!
By Gabriel Gan

A fortnight ago, we witnessed the worse correction in more than a year after Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke breathed words of a gradual withdrawal of stimulus measures. Already so used to life in the stock market with cheap money, investors sold shares, bonds and gold so much so that buyers who had missed the entire rally refused to bargain hunt.

When Bernanke came out to utter comforting words, the stock markets rallied believing that it was a miscommunication that had led to the selloff. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) attempted a rally from below 15,000 to as high as 15,340 before falling again when Ben Bernanke, in his post-FOMC meeting media conference, confirmed that the Fed would reduce the amount of bond-buying this year followed by a total withdrawal of Quantitative Easing (QE) III by mid of 2014 should the US unemployment figure hit 7 percent.

Dr Chan Yan Chong’s Column 28.06.13

28 JUNE 2013
Dr Chan Yan Chong’s Column
By Dr Chan Yan Chong

At the media conference immediately after the FOMC meeting, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke announced plans of an exit strategy.

Prior to the meeting, the market was expecting Bernanke to say niceties in order to soothe investor nerves so as to avoid a financial market calamity. Investors were shocked when Bernanke confirmed that his next move would be to reduce the amount of bond-buying very soon.

All good things must come to an end, hence, there is no way the US will continue to print an unlimited amount of money without facing consequences. The end of Quantitative Easing (QE) III must come as it is a necessary evil.

Friday, June 28, 2013

FIRST REIT: VOLATILE TIMES AHEAD (OCBC)

FIRST REIT
Fair value S$1.20
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.079
versus: Current price S$1.18

VOLATILE TIMES AHEAD
• Share price dips 18.3% from peak
• Prudent approach to new acquisitions
• Pare FV and maintain HOLD

Not spared from equities sell-down despite defensive attributes
Concerns over the tapering off of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing programme have driven bond yields up and adversely impacted high-yield stocks such as First REIT (FREIT). FREIT’s share price has slumped 18.3% since it reached its peak of S$1.445 on 29 Apr this year (but stock still up 11.3% YTD).

Temasek increases its stake in chinese lender ICBC

WRITTEN BY BLOOMBERG  
FRIDAY, 28 JUNE 2013 21:22

Temasek Holdings, Singapore’s state-owned investment company, raised its stake in Industrial & Commercial Bank of China, adding to its interests in state- controlled lenders of the world’s second-largest economy.

Temasek bought 126 million shares at an average price of HK$4.602 each, or a total of about HK$580 million ($95 million), according to a Hong Kong stock exchange statement yesterday. That raised Temasek’s holdings in the Hong Kong shares of ICBC to 8.07% from 7.92%. Stephen Forshaw, a spokesman for Temasek in Singapore, confirmed the transaction by telephone.

Temasek bought 3.55 billion ICBC shares from Goldman Sachs Group Inc. in April last year and then disclosed the purchase of a further 83.7 million shares in the Chinese lender the following month. It bought 280 million shares of the bank for HK$5.50 each last month, according to a May 21 filing.

烟霾暂无衝击 棕油业面对减產风险

(吉隆坡28日讯)烟霾情况显示降雨量不足,虽然暂未对棕油產量带来影响,但不排除產量减少的风险,再加上大豆油价格走低和美元走高將对原棕油价格带来负面影响,导致分析员维持种植领域「中和」评级。

近期的烟霾情况显示苏门答腊缺乏降雨量,因此会增加区域內的炎热地点。同时,西马部分地区的森林大火发生机率提升,甚至蔓延到尚未开发的棕油树种植地,进一步验证缺少降雨量。

降雨量不足

据拉昔胡申研究分析员所了解,苏门答腊乾旱天气在6月初开始,部分西马地区亦与苏门答腊的农业区气候雷同,在5月份仍有180毫米的降雨量。这显示目前的乾旱气候只持续了一个月,相信未有影响棕油產量。一般上,连续两个月的降雨不足才会对棕油產量带来负面影响。

Mapletree Commercial Trust : Less of the same driver (CIMB)

Mapletree Commercial Trust
Current S$1.12
Target S$1.22
Less of the same driver

We expect positive rental reversions at VivoCity and Mapletree Anson to be the key drivers of DPU growth over FY13-15, though growth from the former should moderate in FY14.Debt metrics are a tad less defensive compared to other retail REITs, but should be manageable with MCT’s growth profile.

We tweak FY14-16 DPUs lower after marginally raising interest costs. Coupled with a higher discount rate of 7.9% (previously 6.9%; raised across the board following higher bond yields), we lower our DDM-based target price. Maintain Neutral. Re-rating catalysts could come from accretive acquisitions.

Keppel REIT : Flattish DPU growth (CIMB)

Keppel REIT
Current S$1.27
Target S$1.29
Flattish DPU growth

With a flattish DPU growth outlook (due to income support), higher asset leverage and lower interest rate hedges, we believe that KREIT is among those which could be more vulnerable in the face of a spike in interest rates.

We tweak DPUs lower, factoring in further uplifts in borrowing costs. Our DDM-based target price is lowered, now based on a higher discount rate of 8.3% (previously 7.7%) alongside a sector-wide adjustment. Maintain Neutral.

科恩馬股東大會火藥味濃

科恩馬股東大會火藥味濃
Created 06/28/2013 - 10:59
(吉隆坡27日訊)科恩馬集團(KNM,7164,主板工業產品組)股東大會充滿火藥味,小股東對管理層“耍太極”回覆問題的態度深感不滿,並認為該公司應引進機構投資者提昇股價,量力而為拓展業務,重估投資策略為虧損業務止血。

促引進機構投資者
重估投資策略止血

今日股東大會歷時約2小時,不過該公司董事並未在會後接見媒體及發表任何聲明,場外小股東亦證實,現場有多位股東對台上的董事部成員開罵及發問許多問題,表達對該公司長年虧損、股價低迷的不滿情緒。

Frasers Centrepoint Trust : Awaiting accretive acquisition (CIMB)

Frasers Centrepoint Trust
Current S$1.84
Target S$2.02
Awaiting accretive acquisition

DPU growth should remain underpinned by positive rental reversions at its two largest assets while an acquisition of Changi City Point will not just provide accretion but the next stage of growth for FCT. Capital management is optimal, leaving it fairly immune to interest rate hikes.

We keep DPU unchanged but lower our DDM-based target price due to a higher discount rate of 7.4% (previously 6.7%) for a sector-wide adjustment. Maintain Outperform given re-rating catalysts from accretive acquisitions and stronger-than-expected rental reversions.

CapitaMall Trust : A safe haven in current environment (CIMB)

CapitaMall Trust
Current S$1.91
Target S$2.06
A safe haven in current environment

We turn more positive on CMT due to its defensive attributes and DPU growth profile in the current environment as well as its more palatable valuations following the recent selldown. We upgrade CMT to Neutral from Underperform.

We hold back from upgrading to Outperform due to the limited upside. We keep DPUs unchanged but lower our DDM-based target price on a higher discount rate of 7.2% (previously 6.7%; raised across the board following higher bond yields). We see re-rating catalysts from accretive asset enhancements and acquisitions.

CDL Hospitality Trust : More catalysts needed (CIMB)

CDL Hospitality Trust
Current S$1.66
Target S$1.71
More catalysts needed

While we still have a negative outlook on the hospitality sector, we think that CDLHT's current valuation of 1x P/BV has already priced in the negatives. We thus upgrade it from Underperform to Neutral, with a turnaround in the hospitality sector and accretive acquisitions being re-rating catalysts.  

We adjust FY14-15 DPUs to factor in disruptions and higher rentals after AEI at Orchard Hotel. Our DDM-based target price is reduced as a result of a higher discount rate of 8.0% (previously 8.8%; raised across the board due to higher bond yields).

Capitacommercial Trust : Uncertainties in the price (CIMB)

Capitacommercial Trust
Current S$1.42
Target S$1.51
Uncertainties in the price

With CCT down 16% vs. FSTREI’s 8% YTD, CCT is the largest laggard YTD among SREITs. Trading at mean at 0.9x P/BV (its average since listing), we believe negatives from near-term backfilling uncertainties have been priced in.

We lower our FY13-15 DPUs by 1-2%, factoring in dilution from recent convertible-bond conversion. Our DDM-based target price dips on a higher discount rate of 7.9% (previously 7.3%) for a sector-wide adjustment. Nevertheless, upgrade to Neutral from Underperform as we believe negatives have been largely priced in.

Cache Logistics Trust : Portfolio resilience (CIMB)

Cache Logistics Trust
Current S$1.19
Target S$1.31
Portfolio resilience

We continue to like Cache’s resilient portfolio, led by rental step-up for its master leases. Portfolio occupancy is a strong 100%. Low asset leverage of 29% leaves room for acquisition growth, which we consider to be its main catalyst.

We keep our DPUs but lower our DDM-based target price on a higher discount rate of 7.9% (previously 7.1%; raised across the board following higher bond yields). Our estimates assume S$120m of acquisitions for FY13. Maintain Outperform with accretive acquisitions as catalysts.

Ascott Residence Trust : Lacking compelling catalysts (CIMB)

Ascott Residence Trust
Current S$1.23
Target S$1.30
Lacking compelling catalysts

Valuations are not overly undemanding at 0.9x P/BV, with headline yields of 7% fairly attractive. However, we see no compelling catalysts as the macro outlook affecting travel remains uncertain and a higher asset leverage is likely to inhibit accretive acquisitions.

We keep our DPUs but lower our DDM-based target price on a higher discount rate of 8.5% (previously 7.8%; raised across the board following high bond yields). Maintain Neutral.

Ascendas REIT : Opportunities to accumulate a quality stock (CIMB)

Ascendas REIT
Current S$2.13
Target S$2.50
Opportunities to accumulate a quality stock

Share price has corrected alongside the sector. At 1.1x P/BV against its historical average of 1.4x since listing, we see opportunities to accumulate AREIT, a quality holding, in our view, given its prudent management and quality assets.

We lower our FY14-15 DPU by 1% for marginal adjustments in borrowing costs. We lower our DDM-based target price, now based on a higher discount rate of 7.2% (previously 6.4%; raised across the board following higher bond yields). Maintain Outperform with catalysts expected from accretive AEI and asset developments.

S-REIT: Nailing down interest rate effect (CIMB)

 Nailing down interest rate effect
We see few positive drivers for SREITs as tailwinds from interest rates and S$ have morphed into headwinds, impacting spreads, cap values and borrowing costs. With SREITs’ yields near the 6.9-7.2% levels we think it could trade at if bond yields rise to historical average of 3%, we think that the sector is near a turning point but is not outright cheap.
 
We evaluate the impact of rising bond yields in this report. Maintain Neutral. We lower our DDM-based target prices after raising the cost of equity by 80bp across the board. We upgrade Suntec to Outperform from Neutral. Top picks are now AREIT, Suntec and FCT.

內地四措施救A股

【本報訊】內銀錢荒引發A股連日下瀉後,中央政府昨公佈四項措施,試圖為市場注入利好因素。不過,長期的棚戶改革遠水難救近火,暫停正回購、加快批出RQFII、QFII額度及放寬外資於內地銷售基金等措施,亦未達到穩市預期。內地A股昨先升逾1%後,再倒跌收場。

股民不領情 倒跌收市
上述四招,包括國務院總理李克強在國務院常務會議中,公佈今後五年再改造城市和國有工礦、林區、墾區的各類棚戶區1,000萬戶,今年內先改造304萬戶,預料可拉動投資3,000億元(人民幣.下同);其餘則為短期藥效的「散招」,包括國家外滙管理局批准人民幣合格境外投資者(RQFII)額度92億元,以及合格境外機構投資者(QFII)額度9億美元,是較為罕見的單日大額度批核,被市場認為是向市場「輸血」的措施。

曾淵滄專欄 28.06.13:港股現價具吸引力

曾淵滄專欄:港股現價具吸引力

股市依然在大幅波動,昨日恒指高低位相差338點,收市時上升101點,A股則先升後跌,看來,內地股民對人民銀行放水的期望相對較低,我自己則比較傾向於認同內地股民的看法。6月25日內地股市V形大反彈,是因為股市傳出人行放水,但實際上只是個別狀況真的很糟糕、資金周轉出了問題的小銀行才獲救,全面性的放水行動仍未出現。至昨日為止,香港多家銀行依然以高息搶人民幣定存。

昨日,我也將銀行裏原本存有的人民幣活期存款轉為定期存款,收年息2.65厘。過去香港人民幣定存利率一般不超過2厘,一些分行較少的銀行利率也許高一些,但是分行少始終不方便。

港股六絕跌8% 七月大市難翻身

【本報訊】6月港股前後面對美國退市、內銀錢荒等不利因素夾擊,未計今日埋單,本月恒指已跌去8.7%,勢形成月線圖大陰燭,按過往經驗下月多數冇運行。另根據統計,過去6月份衰氣有七成機會延續到7月。因此,6月大跌市過後,7月港股似乎避之則吉。記者:林靜 高明輝 馮健鏗

翻查1988年至去年共25年數據,恒指6月及7月走勢呈同一方向的比例高達68%,由於本月恒指埋單肯定下跌,若重覆歷史趨勢,7月持續跌市的機會偏高。事實上,倘以恒指月線圖看,大市出現大陰燭後,翌月難免要跟跌,由此看來,7月情況實不樂觀。至於H指方面,6月暫跌13.6%,而96至去年17年間,6月及7月走勢同向比例則為58%。

Suntec REIT : Value hard to ignore (CIMB)

Suntec REIT
Current S$1.49
Target S$1.68
Value hard to ignore

Trading at 0.7x P/BV, a tad below the ex-crisis average of 0.8x since its listing and the lowest within the whole sector, we believe that the market has priced in potential negatives from rising borrowing costs, while according limited value to the AEI at Suntec City Mall.

We tweak DPUs lower, factoring in further adjustments in borrowing costs. We lower our DDM-based target price, now based on a higher discount rate of 8.3% (previously 7.5%). We upgrade to Outperform from Neutral for its attractive valuations. We see re-rating catalysts from the positive execution of Suntec City Mall’s AEI.

Frasers Commercial Trust : In-built growth (CIMB)

Frasers Commercial Trust
Current S$1.33
Target S$1.47
In-built growth

FCOT’s three-year DPU CAGR of 13%is the highest among S-REIT peers, which should help it to offset pressures from a weakening A$and rising interest rates. Asset leverage is fairly high but we see asset values as well supported.

Proceeds from any divestment of the hotel site at China Square could also be used to pare down loans. We lower DPUs due to adjustments to A$ assumptions and interest costs. Our DDM-based target price is reduced given a higher discount rate of 8.3% (previously 7.7%). Maintain Outperform for strong in-built growth. Re-rating catalysts are further yield-enhancing moves.

Cambridge Industrial Trust : Organic and inorganic growth drivers (CIMB)

Cambridge Industrial Trust
Current S$0.69
Target S$0.76
Organic and inorganic growth drivers

Though its balance sheet may be less immune to rate hikes than that for some peers, we see strong organic and inorganic growth drivers for Cambridge. We expect growth from positive rental reversions and past investments (with upside expected) to come from value-unlocking.

Our FY14-15 DPUs are lower after tweaking our borrowing cost numbers. Coupled with a higher discount rate of 8.3% (previously 7.5%), we cut our DDM-based target price. Our estimates factor in S$100m of new developments for FY13-14. Maintain Outperform, with catalysts expected from value-unlocking, accretive investments and strong reversions.

Thursday, June 27, 2013

次季仍可能虧損 馬航現有估值誘人

(吉隆坡27日訊)馬航(MAS,3786,主要板貿易)近期股價走軟,券商認為現有股價估值誘人,儘管短期收益受壓,次季仍可能錄虧損,但現階段仍是買入良機,上修投資評級至“短期買進”。

 興業證券研究分析師在報告中指出,馬航營運數據持續報捷,相信業務確實已在恢復當中,不過一些導致收益受壓的風險,是轉虧為盈的阻力,不過股價仍具38%升值潛能。

 分析師指出,儘管數據持續改善,不過與其他全方位航空公司一樣,面對激烈競爭紛紛削減機票成本,藉此提高載客率,相信是首季“意外”虧損的主因。

海鷗財測上修16%

海鷗財測上修16%
Created 06/27/2013 - 17:30
(吉隆坡27日訊)海鷗企業(HAIO,7668,主板貿服組)2013財政年盈利表現超預期,分析員看好多層次行銷(MLM)將繼續扮演盈利推手角色,未來業務前景持續正面,上修2014財政年淨利目標16%。

肯納格研究表示,海鷗企業2013財政年淨利4千740萬令吉,比市場預期的4千390萬令吉高出8%,歸功於MLM和批發業務貢獻改善。

該公司2013財政年營業額增長12%,MLM毫無意外再次成為增長動力來源,主要歸功於會員人數按年走揚15%,推動飲食消費產品、保健等產品銷售,更重要的是某項新產品推介獲得市場良好反應,佔MLM業務總營業額的14%。

源宗集團計劃 增加公司銷售產能

(巴西古當26日訊)源宗集團(GCB,5102,主要板消費)說,全球可可市場前景不明,或將影響至今年底的餐飲領域及可可價格;唯該公司希望,可透過多家亞洲餐飲跨企客戶,增加業務銷售潛力。

 國內最大可可加工商源宗集團總執行長兼董事經理鄭賀聯指出,源宗集團未來將專注發展,旗下可可業務的市場及銷售,至亞洲多家餐飲跨國公司,藉此提高公司銷售表現。

 目前,源宗集團供應的全球巧克力及餐飲跨國公司包括,著名克力零食生產商公司韓國藥天集團(Lotte Group)、好時公司(Hershey’s)及美國食品公司卡夫(Kraft)等。

 鄭賀聯說,看好可可基本產品于亞洲消費市場中,獲得迅速成長,該公司相信可可業務未來貢獻至公司的銷售額,將比2012財年末的6.2%來得高。

券商買進心頭好.坐擁逾60億資產 怡保花園值更高價位

券商買進心頭好.坐擁逾60億資產 怡保花園值更高價位

券商:大眾投資銀行
目標價:3.85令吉

怡保花園(IGB,1597,主要板房產)雖坐擁價值逾60億令吉的資產,但股價仍不合理的落后近期走高的房地產股。

 該公司旗下資產價值約60億令吉,這包括怡保花園產托(IGBREIT,5227,主要板產托)價值23億令吉的51%持股、價值21億令吉的220萬平方呎的辦公樓、國內外超過10家、價值22億令吉的酒店,以及其他值約5.5億令吉的資產(大部分為未發展地庫)。

CCM targets niche therapeutic areas

CCM targets niche therapeutic areas
Lidiana Rosli
lidiana@mediaprima.com.my
2013/06/27

KUALA LUMPUR: Chemical Company of Malaysia Bhd (CCM) aims to be the first local manufacturer of pharmaceutical products targeting niche therapeutic areas of oncology, vaccines and biosimilars.

Managing director Amirul Feisal Wan Zahir said this forms part of the company's focus areas for 2014.

"Currently, we are the first local company going into chemical trials for biosimilar.

"We expect to start chemical trials for this offering within the year itself," he said, noting that CCM is also working on oncology development.

YTL in talks to buy Spanish trains for klia2

YTL in talks to buy Spanish trains for klia2
Sharen Kaur
sharen@mediaprima.com.my
2013/06/27

CHEAPER OPTION: CAF and Talgo among potential manufacturers, say sources YTL Corp Bhd is in talks with Spanish manufacturers to buy up to four train sets worth some RM150 million to serve the Kuala Lumpur International Airport 2 (klia2), sources said.

The company has a 30-year concession, held via 50 per cent-owned unit Express Rail Link Sdn Bhd (ERL), to operate the KLIA Express and KLIA Transit on the railway line between KL Sentral in Brickfields and the Kuala Lumpur International Airport.

「錢荒」後遺症 內銀壞帳恐升

「錢荒」後遺症 內銀壞帳恐升
2013年6月27日
【明報專訊】人行前晚確認向市場放水,使到內地銀行同業拆息進一步回落。但內銀「錢荒風暴」是否過去仍言之尚早。雖然分析師普遍預期拆息在7月中旬後會回落,但由此帶來像銀行惜貸減貸、理財產品違約、銀行呆壞帳增加的後遺症,會於下半年趨嚴重。

上海銀行同業拆息(Shibor)昨日隔夜及7日分別回落18.3點子及44.3點子(1厘為100點子)至5.553厘和7.201厘;不過14日及1個月拆息卻稍為回升,顯示銀行對於7月中旬後的資金情仍謹慎。

Coastal Contract - Unveiling Recurring Income Strategy

Coastal Contract -
Price Target:3.00
Last Price:2.09
Unveiling Recurring Income Strategy

The Edge Financial Daily  reported today that  Coastal Contracts (COCO) is  acquiring  its  first  jack-up  drilling  rig  for  USD200m  (MYR641m). Assuming  an 80:20 debt-to-equity ratio, COCO’s balance sheet will be leveraged  up  to  some  0.46x  net  gearing  based  on  its  latest  quarterly numbers.  Given  the  change  in  the  company’s  earnings  dynamics,  we upgrade  the  stock  to  a  BUY  from  NEUTRAL,  as we  raise  the  PE  ratio from 8x to 10x. Our FV is thereby nudged up to MYR3.00 from MYR2.33.

- Buying its first jack-up rig. COCO’s new jack-up rig Friede & Goldman JU2000E  is a high-specification jack-up rig priced  at a  5%-10%  discount compared  to  Seadrill’s  acquisition  price  for  the  same  jack-up  rig  this year.

IGB CORPORATION - Quality Yielding Assets

IGB CORPORATION BERHAD -
Price Target:3.85
Last Price:2.38
 Quality Yielding Assets

IGB, despite having swathe of great assets – mainly 51% stake in IGB REIT worth RM2.3bn, 2.2m-sf of offices, more than 10 hotels locally and overseas, etc – is unjustifiably still lagging behind the recent run in the property stocks. With the Group‟s investment grade assets, fortress balance sheet, and strong cash flow, the Group should not be trading at current levels in our view. It‟s no secret that the Group is exploring listing of its office assets after the successful floatation of IGB REIT. Admittedly, the management is still coy on the timing, but we believe the market is now ideal for listing as most investors are chasing yielding assets now.

AirAsia : Goodbye Japan (CIMB)

AirAsia
Current RM3.03
Target RM4.00
Goodbye Japan

 AirAsia disclosed that it will exit Japan by selling its 49% stake in AirAsia Japan to its partner ANA for RM80.5m. This event is a big disappointment as AirAsia failed to monetise the potential, but also a relief from what could otherwise be a long period of losses.

We maintain Outperform with our target still based on 11x CY14 P/E, which is the sector average. AirAsia’s short history has shown us that it will fight hard to win, but when withdrawal is the better option, it will not hesitate to do so. In our view, this is the mark of great corporate leadership. Upside catalysts include our belief that the Malindo threat will not be as bad as feared. We raise our 2013 forecasts for the sale proceeds.

Noble Group : Agricultural headwinds (CS)

Noble Group Ltd
Price (24 Jun 13 , S$) 0.96
TP (prev. TP S$) 0.90 (1.70)
Assuming Coverage with UNDERPERFORM
Agricultural headwinds


● We assume coverage on Noble Group with an UNDERPERFORM rating and a TP of S$0.90, as we expect the company’s ROE to be below its COE in FY13, driven by weakness in Agriculture.

● Noble made its first loss in the Agriculture segment in 1Q13, and we expect challenges faced to persist into 2Q13. (1) Lower raw sugar prices are likely to offset higher utilisation of its Brazilian sugar mills; (2) Logistics bottlenecks in Brazil will only ease in July at the earliest (3) Oilseed processing in China could see weakness caused by structural overcapacity.

Nam Cheong: Cautious Street Numbers Create Opportunities (OSK)

Nam Cheong: Cautious Street Numbers Create Opportunities
(BUY, SGD0.265, TP: SGD0.35)
We found from our analysis that street estimates of Nam Cheong (NCL) are too low. Our FY13F PATMI forecast of MYR181m is 10% above the average estimate, which is predicated on gross margin narrowing to 18.65%. The twin effects of a higher-margin vessel mix and the recent charter of NCL’s 12,000bhp AHTS at an estimated 50% gross margin should arrest any margin slide. We expect consensus upgrades following the company’s 2QFY13F results, and reiterate our BUY call.

Genting Hong Kong : Travellers defers $842 mln Philippine IPO on stock market fall (UOBKH)

Genting Hong Kong      
 Price/Target: US$0.415/US$0.41      
 52-week hi/lo: US$0.515/0.310

Travellers defers $842 mln Philippine IPO on stock market fall.

What’s New:
The Philippines' Travellers International Hotel Group has deferred its P36.8b peso ($842m) initial public offering to September or October after recent declines by local and global stock markets, IFR reported yesterday.

The pre-marketing that started on June 13 was to end on Tuesday and given market conditions the company decided not to start bookbuilding, said IFR, a Thomson Reuters publication.
Travellers is a joint venture between casino operator Genting Hong Kong Ltd and Philippine conglomerate, Alliance Global Group Inc.

China Minzhong Food : Maiden dividends? (CIMB)

China Minzhong Food
Current S$1.08
Target S$1.27
Maiden dividends?


 We came away from Minzhong’s meeting with investors at our annual Asia Pacific conference with the belief that Indofood is likely to take a board seat and management may pay a dividend.

These could ease corporate governance concerns. We make no changes to our earnings estimates. We raise out target price to a 10% premium to sector average (4.5x CY14 P/E) in anticipation of a re-rating as corporate governance concern eases. Maintain Outperform with dividends as a key re-rating catalyst.

Religare Health Trust : Eyeing acquisitions (CIMB)

Religare Health Trust
Current S$0.85
Target S$1.07
Eyeing acquisitions

 RHT joined us at our recent Asia-Pacific Conference. Listed last year, it has delivered well on forecasts and is ramping up operations at Gurgaon Hospital. Forward yields after its recent selldown are 9-10% with growth supplemented by ARPOB and capacity expansion.

We keep our DPU estimates and DDM-based target price (discount rate: 11.7%). Maintain Outperform with attractive headline yields, earnings deliveries and acquisitions as catalysts.

Cosco Corporation : Still hazy (CIMB)

Cosco Corporation
Current S$0.76
Target S$0.46
Still hazy

 Although the share price has plunged to its 12-month low, we are still doubtful of Cosco’s earnings visibility and execution. Contracts may no longer excite the market as profitability is uncertain. We maintain Underperform.

There is no change to our EPS and the target price is still based on 22x CY14 (five-year mean). We expect margins to deteriorate in upcoming quarters as the group starts work on the lower-value orders clinched in 2011/12. We would revisit the stock on stronger-than-expected earnings.

曾淵滄專欄 27.06.12:收息股吸引力再現

曾淵滄專欄:收息股吸引力再現 - 曾淵滄

前日A股V形大反彈,帶動港股V形小反彈,但昨日兩地股市就背馳而行,A股再度下跌,港股則急升。周小川一面放火,一面告訴股民他已準備好救火的水喉,在適當的時候就會放水。香港股民認為他很快就會出手,內地股民則仍在觀望,因此兩地股市出現背馳。

股市如此動盪,我認為已有相當跌幅,收息率又再回升,收息股應該再度有了吸引力。買收息股的態度應該就是收息,而不是博股價上升,如果你認為4厘息是不錯的回報,那就買下來長期持有,這筆錢就長期用來收息。經過近月股市的調整,一般收息股的股息都超過4厘,一部份更高達7厘。

Desperate times, desperate moves (CIMB)

Desperate times, desperate moves
Container shipping dominated the headlines last week, with Maersk, MSC and CMA CGM proposing a mega-alliance called P3, on top of the upcoming 1 Jul rate hikes. Share prices responded positively, but are now pulling back. Should we be bullish on container shipping again?

 We have no doubt that the rates will rise on 1 Jul, but without more serious capacity discipline, the rate hikes could fade quickly. We are Neutral on shipping overall and have Outperforms only on lower-risk OOIL and SITC. Our top pick remains Pacific Basin as its valuations are compelling and dry bulk rates should bottom this year.

CapitaMall Trust :Jurong’s Ready For Four Gems (MKE)

CapitaMall Trust
Buy(unchanged)
Share price: SGD1.91
Target price: SGD2.45 (unchanged)
Jurong’s Ready For Four Gems

Jurong’s big enough for all. With the recent grand opening of Lend Lease’s JemTM mall in Jurong Gateway, we visited CMT’s JCube and IMM over the weekend to see how they are faring in the face of new competition. We came away encouraged that footfalls at CMT’s malls remain healthy, and we believe that the population catchment in Jurong is large enough to sustain yet another mall in the neighbourhood in the form of CMT’s upcoming Westgate Mall. Reiterate BUY, Street-high target price maintained at SGD2.45.

益納利將完成 收購中國美昌股份


(吉隆坡26日訊)半導體電子製造服務(EMS)供應商益納利(INARI,0166,創業板科技股)宣布,即將完成收購中國美昌股份(Amertron Global)100%股權一案,收購價為3200萬美元(約1億287萬令吉)。

 該公司總執行長羅健聰今日透過文告指出,該項收購案包括接管中國美昌股份的兩家子公司,分別為美昌有限公司、及昆山美昌科技有限公司。

 美昌有限公司于菲律賓克拉克及帕拉那克分別擁有兩家製造廠,而昆山美昌科技則于中國崑山經營一家製造廠。

Vard Holdings: Voices from the Customers (MKE)

Vard Holdings
Buy(unchanged)
Share price: SGD1.095
Target price: SGD1.65 (unchanged)
Voices from the Customers

Reiterate Buy, order intake to gather pace in 2H13. Vard’s share price is off its low of SGD1.015 following an unwarranted selldown previously. While there are some easing of concerns over margins and order intake, further rerating would need to be triggered by real order wins which we believe would gather pace towards 2H13. Vard has the most attractive valuations among the O&M stocks under our coverage, trading at 5.8x FY14F PER, 5-6% forward dividend yields and FY13- 15F ROEs of > 25%. Reiterate Buy and TP of SGD1.65.

Malaysia Property :The end of DIBS? (CS)

Malaysia Property Sector
The end of DIBS?

● Bank Negara is studying the risks arising from developer interest-bearing schemes (DIBS) and potentially imposing restrictions on its implementation.

● A ban on DIBS would have a greater impact on speculative buying in the sector, however, the effect would depend on the severity of the measures imposed. DIBS are considered to be a promotional tool for developers and they may rely on other promotions to compensate for or replace DIBS.

美林踩中資股 進入下跌期

【無底深潭】


內地A股回穩,至於港股恐慌過後更出現V形反彈,但難改大行唱淡立場。其中,美銀美林認為,除非中央於短期內推出關鍵招數,令市場冷靜,否則中資股下跌空間仍相當巨大。


美銀美林發表報告指,上海銀行同業拆息(SHIBOR)回穩,僅為大市持續反彈提供先決條件,未足以令市場真正見底回升。該行指出,內地目前情況跟2011年中相似,當時SHIBOR於6月23日高見9.2厘,雖然7月13日急速回落至3.7厘,但H指要跌至10月4日才見底,滬綜指更要2012年初才站穩。該行形容,市場近期反應較2011年一役更巨大,原因是金融系統的槓桿更高,而人行上周行動等同掟大石落水,總會掀起反彈。

內銀股趁反彈甩身

本報訊】壞消息冇咁壞,就當好消息?工行(1398)及建行(939)等昨報復式反彈逾6%,帶動港股出現大規模挾淡倉活動,恒指狂漲482點。不過,內銀A股仍欠起色,盈富(2800)沽空繼續爆燈,加上內地拆息市場未真正脫險,有大行專家認為,短期壞消息未盡出,內銀股以至中資股,可趁反彈甩身。

記者:高明輝 馮健鏗 林 靜

昨日升市背後,原來是內地信貸市場出現「小轉機」,人行周二晚公佈已向個別「乖」銀行注資,惟阿爺放水未全面化解銀行錢荒。據本報獲悉,廣東省除農行(1288)外,包括中行(3988)、工、建三大行以及中小型內銀,在6月底前都暫不審批貸款,或者拖慢審批申請。若7月仍未能解決錢荒,個別銀行會續拖慢審批貸款申請。消息指,除人行查數之外,銀行暫停批貸款,原因是上周確有銀行違約,中銀監說沒有「大規模違約」,只是玩「語言偽術」。

Wednesday, June 26, 2013

登州补选 嘉隆再成焦点

登州补选 嘉隆再成焦点

(吉隆坡26日讯)上週五股价收市前曾被大幅压低,及昨天才为拆细股票面值除权的嘉隆发展(TDM,2054,主板种植股),接下来会再次成为全场焦点。这次会是和即將举行的补选有关。

这是因为登州行政议员兼瓜拉勿述州议员阿都拉曼(A Rahman Mokhtar)今早10点18分在医院病逝。因此,必须举行补选。这也是5月5日大选以后的首场补选。

这场补选將对登州政局影响重大,因为登州国阵在今年5月大选只以17席对15席,两席微差领先民联执政。

源宗重点专注2业务

源宗重点专注2业务

(新山26日讯)源宗集团(GCB,5102,主板工业股)未来几年將专注在可可原料直销及工业巧克力市场上,並希望有关项目可取得比2012年財政年纪录的6%成长更好的成绩。

源宗集团是今日上午在新山珍珠酒店名召开第9届股东大会,发佈上述消息。该集团执行主席拿督莫哈末慕沙、董事经理郑贺联及该集团財务总监等都出席上述大会。

郑贺联预测,可可粉交易市场在今年底將回稳,届时將使该集团在该项领域中持续增长。

他也透露,未来几年將专注在可可原料直销及工业巧克力市场上,並希望有关项目可取得比2012年財政年纪录的6%成长更好的成绩。

马化工策略奏效 业绩向好

(吉隆坡26日讯)马化工(CCM,2879,主板工业股)將集团在2012財政年的强大业绩表现,归功予它自2010年以来所推展的策略计划带来了成果,对旗下化学部、药剂部和肥料部的业绩作出了正面的贡献。

该集团採取的策略计划,包括专注於透过革新与合作,推出更高利润的產品及扩大化学部的现有產品组合;加强药剂部的產品组合;推行一致的品质、准时及按质量移交(OTIF)、具竞爭力的价格和諮询服务,增加肥料部的市场份额。

马化工董事经理阿米鲁费沙旺查希尔,在马化工第51届股东大会过后举行的媒体招待会上,表示有信心上述策略计划可確保集团全线业务持续成长,为未来成长奠定强大基础。

啟順財測不變

啟順財測不變
Created 06/26/2013 - 17:30
(吉隆坡26日訊)啟順造紙業(NTPM,5066,主板消費品組)2013年業績及派息率符合預期,分析員維持財測不變。

該公司營業額按年上揚6.8%至4億8千零60萬令吉,盈利則因所有業務利潤擴大,上升9.6%至4千910萬令吉,主要是受個人衛生用品營業額按年走高37.9%推動,尤其是本地嬰兒尿片的高銷售量,緩沖紙類產品營業額按年下滑1.1%的損失。

興業研究指出,面紙產品出口市場銷售放緩,導致紙類產品營業額疲弱,不過兩大業務利潤按年表現理想。

FED’s QE tapering statement within consensus expectations (DBSV)


FED’s QE tapering statement within consensus expectations
Equity markets fell post FOMC meeting after FED Chairman Ben Bernanke set the conditions and timeline for QE tapering. Yet, there is nothing that the FED said that the market has not anticipated earlier. If anything, we note that the FED is willing to push back the timing for rate hike if the unemployment rate recovers to 6.5% next year. The points were noted:
1) QE will start to taper in the later part of the year in measured steps and end by mid-2014 if incoming economic data supports the view that GDP can grow by 3-3.5% and unemployment rate decline to 6.5% by next year.

Finding value in weakened sentiment (Pantech)

Finding value in weakened sentiment
Insider Asia

Written by Insider Asia  
Monday, 24 June 2013 10:36

SENTIMENT in global financial markets — bonds and equities — took another knock last week on the heels of one of the most keenly watched press releases after the US Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

Investors took a decidedly negative spin on the tentative timetable suggested by the US Federal Reserve for its bond buying programme — it could start to reduce purchases towards the later part of this year and end the programme by mid-2014 — even though this scenario is predicated on forecasts of improvement in the underlying economy.

打房連環拳抑炒風?

打房連環拳抑炒風?
Created 06/25/2013 - 17:30
(吉隆坡25日訊)市場盛傳國家銀行可能箝制發展商承擔利息計劃(DIBS),藉此來抑制產業市場猖獗炒風,分析員認為監管當局為達目的可能推介更多的打房措施,不排除產業盈利稅可能再度調高。

大華繼顯認為,近期產業牛市的多數銷售與誘人DIBS配套綑綁,讓產業發展商在建設期間吸納所有的利息付款,而據悉國行現正從銀行收集相關配套資料。

“若DIBS或其他類似配套遭到收緊,這將顯著影響新推介產業銷售,主要是投機者將因素隔絕在外。”

Between Fire and Ice: 3Q-13 Overview (Lim Say Boon)


Wilmar: Expect more volatility ahead (OCBC)

Wilmar:
Fair value S$3.25
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.060
versus: Current price S$3.25

Expect more volatility ahead
• Volatility week
• But worst is not over
• Downgrade to HOLD

Wilmar international Limited (WIL), with its large exposure to China via its oilseeds crushing and consumer pack businesses, is certainly feeling the impact from the recent slew of sluggish economic data out of the mainland. As such, stock price has been particularly volatile over the past week or so, rising by as much as 7.1% to a recent S$3.31 high before retreating by 6.3%. Going forward, we continue to expect more volatility in share price, especially if market adopts a less “risk on” approach. In view of this, we reduce our valuation peg from 15x to 12.5x, which in turn reduces our fair value from S$3.90 to S$3.25. Downgrade to HOLD for now.

Neptune Orient Lines – Lowering the sails (OCBC)

Neptune Orient Lines –
Fair value S$1.17
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.00
versus: Current price S$1.08

Lowering the sails
• Freight rate weakness can’t be ignored
• Capacity management essential
• Temper expectations despite cost management

We downgrade Neptune Orient Lines’s (NOL) to HOLD in light of weaker than expected freight rates and poorer industry-wide action on capacity management. According to the SCFI, average freight rates have declined by more than 13% QoQ as compared to an increase over the same period last year. This downward trend could reduce the impact of the upcoming general rate hike on 1 Jul – enacted by the Transpacific Stabilisation Agreement – unless greater effort on reducing capacity is undertaken by carriers ahead of the peak-season.

CapitaLand Limited: Uncertainties creeping into macro picture (OCBC)

CapitaLand Limited:
Fair value S$3.77
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.07
versus: Current price S$2.98

Uncertainties creeping into macro picture
• More uncertainty for CN sales
• Likely rising mortgage rates ahead
• Lower FV to S$3.77

We believe recent PMI and interbank liquidity datapoints from China point to increasing macro uncertainties as authorities attempt to engineer a more sustainable albeit slower tempo of growth. This being so, we see heightened downside risks for CAPL’s Chinese residential sales and rental outlooks. In Singapore, increasing visibility of a QE exit scenario have moved bond yields to recent highs and a trend of rising mortgage rates would likely ensue from here, in our view.

Between Fire and Ice: The Equities Outlook



美國聯準會主席柏南奇宣告QE今年縮減規模,明年中旬退場。黃金、美股、美債齊跳水。



曾渊沧:短暂下跌莫恐慌 重视长线投资

 作者简介:曾渊沧博士,香港著名财经分析员、专栏作家,中原城市指数研究组主任,苹果日报创刊人之一。曾任香港城市大学工商管理硕士课程主任、管理科学副教授,以及多家企业、机构顾问。

  昨天,香港与内地股市皆兵荒马乱,正身处上海的我,手机响个不停,先后有6位香港记者、朋友打电话来谈股市,恐慌之心弥漫市场,恒指跌至20382点,上海综合指数也跌至2084点。

  不过,对于长期投资者而言,这不是什么问题,说美国退市带来恐慌,但是美国股市依然是全球表现最佳的股市,说美国退市使得美国热钱从香港撤走,但是,实际上过去几个月,有多少热钱流入香港?过去几个月,港股升了多少?一个未见升市的股市,何来热钱?说穿了,这只是人吓人,只是大户来制造恐慌以赚大钱,人在恐慌时是麻木的,是无法理智、冷静的思考,一心只担心自己手上的股票会不会再继续贬值?白天吃不下饭,晚上睡得不好,最后低价卖了股票。是的,在股市大跌的时候,许多人都有压力,但是,成功的投资者一定得学习如何克服这种压力。

REITs 重新洗牌出擊

素來受追捧的房地產信託基金(REITs),近月股價一度慘遭「滑鐵盧」。在憂慮美國退市的負面情緒下,大市由高位急挫,就算一向硬淨的REITs價格亦呈明顯跌勢,焦點REITs領匯(00823)更曾連日失守,改寫了近年只賺不蝕的神話。到底REITs投資能否續為投資者帶來美夢?長線收息是否行得通?

REITs之所以受到投資者青睞,主要是具備「財息兼收」之效,股東們可獲得旗下投資物業項目如商廈及商場等大部分租金收益外,若REITs股價上升,股東們的收益亦水漲船高。

以去年為例,大部分REITs的總回報率亦超過20%,其中置富(00778)、泓富(00808)及陽光房地產(00435)總回報率名列前三名,分別達79.3%、67%及58%。但由於股價累積升幅已高,早前REITs一度像「洗倉」式下跌。

慧眼睇市:房託主打零售更可取

今次將繼續分析在港上市房託種類及其投資價值,投資房地產信託基金(下稱:房託)時需留意事項大概包括其分派回報率(亦即息率)、房託旗下物業組合及其每股資產淨值上升空間。
息率分析方面比較簡單,愈高息率代表估值愈為吸引,抗跌力亦相對較高。而房託旗下物業組合方面,參考現時在港上市房託於投資房地產項目分類可分為零售、寫字樓及酒店三大業務。鑑於三大業務受不同因素所左右,故作分析時,需預測行業未來變化。
未來營運風險較低

筆者認為從事零售業務為主的房託未來營運風險較低,原因如下:(一)寫字樓供應近年有上升趨勢,而寫字樓非核心化(即遠離核心區)動力持續,故在供求關係漸飽和下,盈利增長有限。(二)酒店業務與經濟增長關聯性大,由於經濟層面不穩,未來不確定性增加,加上即使酒店入住率下跌,酒店經營成本及開支未必同步下跌,由於經營酒店涉及大量固定成本,將限制經營者應付市場逆境能力。

投資SUN國度:中資股今非昔比 趁反彈不妨減磅

不少人的撈底目標,依然會是內銀股,主要理據之一,是因為它們大到不能倒,一定沒有問題。
大到不能倒,並非合邏輯的理由。股票的價值,不是視乎公司是否生存,而是要看公司的盈利。今次內地挾息事件之後,應該不會有銀行倒閉,可是銀行卻會比以往收縮業務控制風險。另一方面,面對更難預測的營商及借貸環境,企業審慎發展,穩健理財亦合情合理,所以無可避免,整體社會經濟活動及信貸規模均會下跌,銀行盈利必然受影響,內銀股價可能超賣之後有些反彈,長遠則很難會有運行。大到不能倒,是買債券的好理由,卻不應當成某隻股票的護身符。

Courts Asia: Courting Asean's credit (DBSV)

Courts Asia:
BUY (Initiating Coverage);
S$0.93; COURTS SP
Courting Asean's credit
Price Target : 12-Month S$ 1.13

•Beneficiary of increased population and housing in Singapore and growing regional wealth in Malaysia & Indonesia
•Enjoys competitive advantage in in-house credit, Indonesia a longer term stock catalyst
•Ramping up presence in Malaysia, earnings CAGR of 15% for the next two years
•Initiate with BUY and TP of S$1.13


Offers exposure to higher Asean consumption.  Courts offers investors a unique exposure to Asean’s retail markets, growing middle class, rising disposable income, and increasing consumer appetite for credit on the back of rising incomes.  Courts is a beneficiary of Singapore’s rising population and housing demand.  With presence in Malaysia, and Indonesia from 2014, Courts will also benefit from the growing middle class and rising income of Asean consumer markets.

人行維穩適時放水 紓緩恐慌拆息料回落

【內地錢荒】

人行有意透過市場化手段測試利率,對規範欠佳銀行挾息「示警」,引發內地同業拆借市場「錢荒」風波,卻因不安情緒「玩大咗」蔓延至股市乃至國外市場。人行昨日傍晚終發聲明,表態會「適時調節銀行體系流動性」。在人行發表聲明被視為救市論前,「一行三會」負責人昨午二時齊出席陸家嘴論壇新聞發佈會,向市場大派定心丸。A股即出現戲劇性V形反彈。

記者:劉美儀 林靜

人行又披露,為保持貨幣市場平穩運行,近日人行已向一些符合宏觀審慎要求的金融機構提供流動性支持,一些自身流動性充足的銀行也開始發揮穩定器作用向市場融出資金,貨幣市場利率已回穩。截至6月21日,全部金融機構備付金約為1.5萬億元(人民幣.下同)。

曾淵滄專欄 26.06.13:103元買iBond值博

美國退市陰霾加上中國演習大鱷狙擊戰,導致香港股市淒淒慘慘,多隻新股打退堂鼓。不過,今日仍有一隻新股排除萬難正式上市,這隻新股就是我的學生施偉斌旗下的英達公路再生科技(6888)。

大市狂跌,英達仍能順利上市,其中一個原因是中投決定入股的消息在市場傳開。中投是中央的投資機構,一向很少看中二三線股,中投入股的消息加強了其他機構投資者的信心,因此英達很成功地集資。我很欣賞學生的創業,因此也申請五萬股以示支持,並將長期持有。

中投不會無緣無故投資一隻二三線股,很肯定的,英達潛力是巨大的,而且符合國家經濟發展的方向,以最環保的方法、最短的時間進行公路維修,技術水平已超越西方先進國家,英達有能力取得北京長安大街的維修工程合約,就有能力取得全國各大城市的公路維修工程,這的確是香港工程師的光榮。

Tuesday, June 25, 2013

美QE退场引动荡 149亿外资随时撤

美QE退场引动荡 149亿外资随时撤
Created 06/25/2013 - 08:25
(吉隆坡24日讯)美联储局上周谈退场,立即撼动全球,在我国,虽然外资过去4周流出比流入高,但分析员警告,股市仍有149亿令吉外资随时撤走。

MIDF研究分析员表示,外资在马股已连续4周为净卖家,但马股面临“外资撤走”的风险尚未解除。

“根据预测,在今年流入马股的外资,只有32%已经撤离。目前仍有149亿令吉或49亿美元留在马交所。”

预期将导致全球股市未来数月动荡不安,外资持股比例高的大马股项将首当其冲。

柏利赛石油 黑马发威

柏利赛石油 黑马发威
Created 06/24/2013 - 14:30
柏利赛石油(Perisai,0047,主板贸服股)配合新的替代进口(Import Substitution)发展策略,未来主攻生产及钻凿业务,成为油气领域的亮点。

这变身计划成功获得市场赏识,股价在今年大涨,一度冲上1.70令吉历史新高。

同时,投行也纷纷举起拇指说好,看好该股在未来2至3年内成为油气领域的黑马。

新管理层入主柏利赛石油(Perisai,0047,主板贸服股)3年之后,二度改变公司发展策略及方向,并设下每年30%净利成长的目标。

外资一篮子下单 5股突劲升 尾盘1分钟7股近跌停板

外资一篮子下单 5股突劲升 尾盘1分钟7股近跌停板
Created 06/22/2013 - 08:55
(吉隆坡21日讯)马股收盘前10分钟,外资投资机构一篮子下单,导致多只股项出现涨停或跌停的诡异现象,引发市场议论纷纷。

根据观察,这些暴起暴跌的下单都是在下午4时50至51分进行,动机不明,不过,大马交易所对《南洋商报》指出,所有的交易皆有效。

受美国联储局可能削减、甚至撤出刺激经济计划担忧的拖累,已经连跌两天的马股,在本周最后一个交易日出现这种类似被“狙击”的状况,更是令市场不安。

胡立阳:QE退场四部曲

过去一个多月来,我不断在许多论坛中预告QE若退场,必将造成全球股市大跌。但也有一些来宾提问:QE退场,表示美国经济正在复苏,股市不该下跌。这种说法表面听来,似乎有理。 但他们却忽略了,股市早已提前经济反应了。再说,华尔街股市,这二、三年来的暴涨,走的是资金行情,与经济发展完全脱钩,否则以不到2%的GDP,怎能扛起15,000 点的道指?过去,我曾研究近半世纪来,当全球资金由松转紧时,常会出现几个连锁反应,以下就是我在每场演讲会中说明的图表,现在也提供给大家作个参考:

Mapletree Logistics Trust: Scaling up presence in Korea (OCBC)

Mapletree Logistics Trust:
Fair value S$1.15
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.073
versus: Current price S$1.12

Scaling up presence in Korea
• Sale-and-leaseback agreement
• Acquisition to be DPU-accretive
• Lowering FV on higher cost of equity

.
Mapletree Logistics Trust (MLT) has entered into a sale and purchase agreement with supply chain management company, Oakline Co. Ltd, for the acquisition of The Box Centre in South Korea. Oakline will lease back the property for a period of six years with built-in rental escalation from second year onwards. At a purchase consideration of KRW28.75b (~S$32.0m), the property is expected to provide an initial NPI yield of 8.4%.

Looking for a REIT to Invest In?



Cache Logistics Trust: Valuation looks undemanding (OCBC)

Cache Logistics Trust:
Fair value S$1.40
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.084
versus: Current price S$1.24

Valuation looks undemanding
• Growth momentum to continue
• Limited impact from interest rate hike
• Attractive upside potential

We are reiterating our prognosis that Cache Logistics Trust (CACHE) is likely to continue to deliver sustainable growth for FY13. CACHE has a portfolio of quality assets which has a 100% occupancy rate and strong weighted average lease to expiry of 3.7 years. Together with the recent acquisition of Precise Two, CACHE is likely to meet our growth projection for 2013.

Consumer sector – Sector under pressure (OCBC)

Consumer sector –
Sector under pressure
We downgrade the consumer sector to UNDERWEIGHT in light of the weaker SG retail sales figures for Apr and the potential threats to regional consumer spending (i.e macro-overhang, government policy changes and greater foreign competition). With sales figures likely to showcase unimpressive results for May, 2QCY13 could well shape out to be a muted quarter in terms of top-line growth for consumer companies. Furthermore, operating cost pressures resulting from higher wage costs and advertising and promotional spending still remain so operating margins are likely to stay depressed. Within the sector, we favour counters with defensive qualities such as Sheng Siong [BUY; FV: S$0.82] or counters with potential M&A activity Viz Branz [BUY; FV: S$0.74]. ()

CDL Hospitality Trusts: Lowering FV to S$1.79 (OCBC)

CDL Hospitality Trusts:
Fair value S$1.79
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.11
versus: Current price S$1.82

Lowering FV to S$1.79
• Continued weakness in Singapore hospitality
• FY13F RevPAR growth of -5%
• Maintain HOLD

STB data shows that RevPAR for Upscale and Mid-tier Singapore hotels for Apr fell 12.8% YoY and 4.7% to S$229 and S$160 respectively.

Monday, June 24, 2013

Eversendai - Towards RM2bn steel mark

Eversendai -
Price Target:1.75
Last Price:1.47
Towards RM2bn steel mark

Highlights
RM2bn milestone… Eversendai has set its eye to achieve RM2bn revenue by 2017. Assuming that it achieves a net margin of 10%, this will translate to earnings CAGR of 11.6%. Despite the order book replenishment hiccups over the past two years which has failed to meet expectations of RM1.5bn/year, we believe that the target is achievable and realistic given the investment in business development activities. The most obvious strategy will be through its 70% subsidiary, Eversendai-Technics, to penetrate into the O&G fabrication sector. The next step will be through its 49% associate, Vahana Construction S/B, to move up the value chain as a turnkey contractor, while the balance prospects will be expansion into green field countries i.e. CIS region.

PhillipCapital Weekly Market Watch 17.06.2013 -Pan United



企业“大笨象” 分拆变凤凰?

企业“大笨象” 分拆变凤凰?
Created 06/17/2013 - 12:45
企业做得大固然有成就感,但一不小心变成“大笨象”,那可不是件好事。

大集团常有的坏处,就是业务太多元,规模太庞大,导致营运效率大大降低,更无法反映出真正的价值。

有时候,太多业务集中在一个大集团里,许多价值都会被掩蔽,因此,分拆业务再独立上市,反而能够释放价值,甚至达到1+1=3的升级效果。

马来西亚企业界,有哪个大集团需要分拆上市?

Neptune Orient Lines : Reducing forecasts (CIMB)

Neptune Orient Lines
Current S$1.10
Target S$1.10
Reducing forecasts

 We have raised loss estimates for NOL in 2013 as we believe the very weak spot rates in 2Q13, which are below 2Q12 levels for the Asia-Europe and transpacific trades, will hurt performance. Also, the transpacific annual contracts were likely renewed at flat levels.

Although NOL indicated during our conference that it is likely to perform better in 2013 than in 2012, we think that the improvement could be marginal as cost reduction efforts are offset by the weaker market. We also reduce profit forecasts in 2014-15. We stay Underperform and our target price remains based on an FY13 P/BV of 1.1x (2011 historical average). De-rating catalysts include spot rate erosion after the 1 July rate hikes.

Jim Rogers :Consistently Capitalism, China and Commodities



ComfortDelGro: Good entry point

ComfortDelGro:
Fair value S$1.95
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.06
versus: Current price S$1.81

Good entry point
• Share price stabilising
• Fundamentals unchanged
• Time to pickup a high-quality counter on  the cheap

We are upgrading ComfortDelgro to BUY as its share price has shown signs of stabilising since the partial stake sale by the SLF about a month ago. In our view, the group remains a high-quality counter with unchanged fundamentals and positive growth drivers from its overseas operations. Furthermore, while the group continues to face domestic challenges in the absence of a fare increase, we view the recent fare review delay as an indication of a more sustained and beneficial fare review structure in the long-run. We leave our fair value estimate of S$1.95 unchanged.

Starhub: Facetime with the CEO (CIMB)

Starhub
Current S$4.03
Target S$4.52

 Facetime with the CEO
The main takeaways from Starhub’s participation at our Annual AsiaPacific conference are: 1) it is eyeing the enterprise market as a growth driver, 2) it is trying to stimulate roaming revenues with its new rate, and 3) competition in fibre remains stiff.

Starhub remains a Neutral with no change to our DCF-based target price(WACC7.8%)given the lack of re-rating catalysts for the stock. M1 is our top telco pick in Singapore as it is the key beneficiary of the surging take-up of tiered data plans.

Rising Yields: Implications For Investors

Rising Yields: Implications For Investors
June 14, 2013
  • Longer-dated bond yields have spiked in recent weeks, possibly in anticipation of lowered levels of asset purchases
  • The Fed may soon “taper” its bond buying programme for several reasons; the US economy appears to be healing, while a lower projected federal budget deficit should mean lower Treasury issuance, leaving the Fed with fewer bonds to buy
  • Historically, rising longer-dated bond yields have had a differentiated impact on the various asset classes; stocks and high yield bonds have tended to fare better, while safer bonds and yield-sensitive assets have tended to underperform

谢国忠 楼市股市会好吗?



Sunday, June 23, 2013

美債殖利率最新的上揚, 會不會造成正要復甦的房市崩壞?



CB Industrial Product Holding - Receives RM35mil contract

CB Industrial Product
Price Target:3.50 Holding -
Last Price:2.80
Receives RM35mil contract

- CB Industrial Product Holding Bhd (CBIP) announced that it has won an RM35mil (US$11.2mil) contract from PT Astra Agro Lestari to build a 45 tonnes/hour Modipalm mill.

- We view this positively as the contract would increase CBIP’s construction order book and sustain its net profit.

- We think that CBIP may secure about RM350mil to RM400mil worth of contracts in FY13F, which should support the group’s profit growth in the coming two years.

【每日專題 】比亞迪出事 股價難看好



Top Glove Q3 Net Profit Down 25%, Buy Call Retained



策略2﹕超賣待彈股 留意中石油海螺

策略2﹕超賣待彈股 留意中石油海螺
2013年6月17日
【明報專訊】既然聯儲局這一次議息會議出現正面信息的機會較高,現在或許是趁機會入市「低撈」的時候。要數值博率最高的股份,首推經歷國指12連跌的一眾中資股,其中,中石油(0857)及安徽海螺(0914)均是可以小注考慮的股份。

中石油倘重估 有15%升幅

先談中石油,論估值,集團的歷史市盈率已經跌至10.5倍,連低於過去3年平均值一個標準差(3YRAVG-1SD)的水平,即是10.9倍亦跌穿。翻查紀錄,過去3年,中石油的歷史市盈率每每跌近3YRAVG-1SD的水平,其股價都會作出一定程度的反彈。假設集團估值只是回升至過去3年平均值約12倍水平;根據往績,一旦集團估值反彈,大部分時間都能夠升穿此一水平,這已代表15%的上升空間。

策略3﹕藍籌高息股 價值漸現

策略3﹕藍籌高息股 價值漸現
2013年6月17日
【明報專訊】在聯儲局退市陰霾下,高息股從高位大幅回落,股價經調整後,開始見有資金趁低吸納,領匯(0823)上周四、五累漲半成。不過,公用股及房託等息率普遍仍處於中性水平,防守性一般,入市宜吼具增長前景股份。此外,部分派息穩定的藍籌股,投資價值逐步浮現,可以留意。

併購力強 長建「錢」途亮麗

目前公用股如中電(0002)、電能(0006)、粵投(0270)及長建(1038)等,息率已差不多回升至過去5年平均水平(見表),但考慮到市場息率趨升,公用股現息率水平還未算十分吸引,具增長前景的才有望獲得青睞。長建業務穩健,併購能力強,增長前景佳,更具吸引力。券商大和表示,其在日本接觸到的投資者,對長建基礎盈利及併購潛能的興趣依然濃厚。該行預計,長建今年盈利可持續擴張,尤其是英國資產,集團債務重整靈活性,將可支持控股形式併購,並在澳洲、新西蘭、英國、歐洲大陸、加拿大及美國等擁有大量併購機會。大和維持長建跑贏大市評級,目標價60元。

財華估股─郭家耀:資金或棄股投債,看好REITs基本面



安倍经济学:克敌一千,自损八百?



胡立阳:孙阿姨炒股记



美国量化宽松退出倒计时?



Warren E. Buffett(沃伦•巴菲特)
Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful
别人贪婪时我恐惧, 别人恐惧时我贪婪
投资只需学好两门课: 一,是如何给企业估值,二,是如何看待股市波动
吉姆·罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)
“错过时机”胜于“搞错对象”:不会全军覆没!”
做自己熟悉的事,等到发现大好机会才投钱下去

乔治·索罗斯(George Soros)

“犯错误并没有什么好羞耻的,只有知错不改才是耻辱。”

如果操作过量,即使对市场判断正确,仍会一败涂地。

李驰(中国巴菲特)
高估期间, 卖对, 不卖也对, 买是错的。
低估期间, 买对, 不买也是对, 卖是错的。

Tan Teng Boo


There’s no such thing as defensive stocks.Every stock can be defensive depending on what price you pay for it and what value you get,
冷眼(冯时能)投资概念
“买股票就是买公司的股份,买股份就是与陌生人合股做生意”。
合股做生意,则公司股份的业绩高于一切,而股票的价值决定于盈利。
价值是本,价格是末,故公司比股市重要百倍。
曹仁超-香港股神/港股明灯
1.有智慧,不如趁势
2.止损不止盈
成功者所以成功,是因为不怕失败!失败者所以失败,是失败后不再尝试!
曾淵滄-散户明灯
每逢灾难就是机会,而是在灾难发生时贱价买股票,然后放在一边,耐性地等灾难结束
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