Saturday, June 22, 2013

交銀5.5厘高息 搶港人民幣


交銀5.5厘高息 搶港人民幣
半年結逼近 內銀「南水北調」紓荒
2013年6月22日
【明報專訊】內地「水荒」嚴重,銀行搶存款戰已蔓延至香港。有中資銀行的香港分公司,近日陸續以超高息吸納本地人民幣存款,交通銀行(香港)昨日即推出年利率最高達5.5厘的1個月人幣定存吸客,息率比一眾本地銀行高出近一倍,而中信銀行(國際)的息率也最高達3厘。有分析認為,近日內地拆息狂,一眾「缺水」中資行或通過在港子公司,大掃較廉宜的離岸人民幣資金,以應付半年結「死線」。

臨近半年結,多家本地銀行均掀起搶錢戰,以吸納短期港元定存為主。但中資行卻也燃起一陣搶人民幣的熱潮,本報發現,多家中資行近日紛紛推出特高定存息率吸客(見表),並以針對一年以下的短期資金居多。

新興市場資產遭拋售, 是因為全球央行利率失控了?



Chinese Listed Companies: Bane or Boon?



Superior Yields - M'sia or S'pore REITs?



麥嘉華(Marc Faber)筆記:美股下半年難樂觀

麥嘉華筆記:美股下半年難樂觀

看圖索驥,大家只要細心觀察幾個圖表,就會對當前美國經濟狀況有初步了解。消費者信心、就業人口比率以及紅銅價格三個指標,均已由2000年的頂峯回落,而且自從經濟於2009年6月擺脫衰退後,亦未嘗收復失地。

七成基金押注救市大計
當然「實質」經濟數據差劣,並不代表股市即將崩盤。第一,非商業的期銅沽空淨張數是歷來最多,意味銅價有機會在短期內顯著反彈。同樣地,如今很多人看淡債市,沽空美國國債,我卻會考慮反其道而行,入市吸納。長線而言,我相信利率終會向上爬,可是在未來兩周左右,我還是會買入一些美國國債作短線投資。平心而論,如果我是交易員,就寧願選擇持有期銅長倉。

投資導航:業界估樓價再跌三成

【專家點評】


三大指標均反映樓價下跌壓力,專家普遍亦對樓市抱悲觀態度,其中中原地產創辦人施永青認為,樓價今年有一成下跌空間;交銀施羅德投資管理(香港)副董事長雷賢達更指,樓價就算跌兩至三成亦屬正常。


施永青表示,息口趨升對樓價造成一定壓力,加上現時本港經濟環境不太理想,中原城市領先指數年底將回落至110點水平,即較現時約有一成下跌空間。他指出,美國退市導致息口趨升,令業主對回報要求增加,一旦租金上升速度不及利息,樓價便會調整。

投資導航:三大凶兆推冧樓市

調查發現,過去一年本港樓價勁升28%,冠絕全球,近期全城瘋搶居屋,令樓市乍現一片繁華景象。不過,在熱鬧的背後,樓市卻已隱藏三大凶兆,包括地產股小股災、美國國債息率趨升,以及一、二手市場冰封,隨時殺市場一個措手不及,今期「投資導航」將剖析這三大因素,或將樓價只升不跌的神話打破。

【1】地產指數預示 樓價下跌成定局
【重要指標】

美國退市陰霾殺埋身,息口趨升,地產股近月瘋狂下跌,新世界(017)及美聯集團(1200)分別挫18%及20%最誇張,期內恒生地產分類指數(下稱地產指數)勁跌14%,大幅跑輸恒生指數約一成跌幅。值得留意的是地產指數與中原城市領先指數往往相互緊扣,地產指數更是樓價領先指標,其大幅下挫預示後者將跟跌,樓價或難再抵抗地心吸力。

胡立阳: 我是否该愿炒服输?



黃金瘋搶潮衰退

【本報訊】金價再創近3年新低,但「中國大媽」不見了。美國聯儲局鋪路「收水」,令紐約期金價格再次跌穿每盎斯1,300美元水平。然而,與4月底時「搶金潮」不同,昨日港九金舖人流疏落,昔日「中國大媽」瘋搶黃金的風光不再。分析相信,金價或繼續受壓,有機會下試1,200元水平。
記者:鄭柏齡 陳智深

4月份金價急跌,內地客在中港各地大舉出動,一個月內共搶購100噸黃金,震驚全球,被外界稱為「中國大媽」。不過,儲局準備退市消息,令金價急轉直下,前晚跌穿1,300美元後,昨晚雖反覆靠穩,但早段跌逾1%至1,269美元,較4月最低1,350美元「更抵」。

Fed to end bond-buying by end-2014 if things go well



苹果还诱人吗?



Marc Faber: I See Further Downside to S&P 500



財華專題─香港零售業高峰已過?



【每日專題 】SHIBOR 係咁升 風險你要知



当胡式法则遇上A股

2013年06月17日14:11 来源:《陆家嘴》

胡立阳认为,他的自然法则可以在各个市场通用。

  文/本刊记者 肖妍茹

  搜索一下胡立阳,你会看到一些听起来颇有些夸张的称呼,比如“华尔街股市神童”、“华尔街顶级大师”或者“亚洲股市教父”。

  根据公开资料,26岁进入美国证券界的胡立阳,在33岁时成为美林证券第一位华籍副总裁兼硅谷分公司总经理。1986年胡立阳应邀回到台湾担任证券市场发展基金会秘书长,任期中因推广股票投资并教育投资大众,带动了空前的投资热潮,被媒体称为“股市教父”。据说他的演讲常常出现那种台上台下、楼上楼下挤得水泄不通的场面,而至今,他仍致力于投资者教育。

Friday, June 21, 2013

Asian markets tumble as Fed eyes end to stimulus


华商迎接油气业热潮

华商迎接油气业热潮

(檳城21日讯)华商机构(WASEONG,5142,主板工业產品组)准备迎接油气业热潮,並预期油气业將在未来1年为该公司贡献更多盈利。

华商机构董事经理兼首席执行员曾釗联今日在该机构第13届股东常年大会后,向记者表示,该公司在今年初获得挪威国油颁发6亿1130万令吉的油管涂层合约,是集团打进欧洲市场的一大突破。

该机构也在2013年財政年第一季爭取到新合约,將订单维持在15亿令吉水平,包括10亿4000万令吉的油气合约、2亿7660万令吉的再生能源合约、及1亿7120万令吉的工业贸易与服务合约等。

外资拋售?5只股跌停

(吉隆坡21日讯)美国联邦储备局(Fed)逐步减少经济刺激力度的消息持续发酵,马股早盘一度下跌近25点,尾盘时,多只股票更面对拋售,出现跌停板,这些股票的共同点是纽约美农银行(Bank of New York Mellon Corp)均为他们的股东。

今日在最后10分钟被拋售,股价被压低至跌停板水平的股项包括,峇都加湾(BKawan,1899,主板种植股),嘉隆发展(TDM,2054,主板种植股),合成种植(HSPlant,5138,主板种植股),CB工业產魃品(CBIP,7076,主板工业股)及沿海工程(Coastal,5071,主板工业股)。

这几只股票在全天大部分时间均没有太多的交易,股价走势也平平无奇,直到闭市前的最后10分钟才出现伴隨交易量的显著跌幅,並达到跌停水平,让人费解。

依华建台年内再争取10亿合约

依华建台年内再争取10亿合约
Created 06/21/2013 - 11:23
(吉隆坡20日讯)依华建台(Sendai,5205,主板建筑股)冀在今年剩余的时间内,争取总值10亿令吉合约。

依华建台执行主席兼董事经理丹斯里AK纳登表示,公司自今年初开始已争取总值5亿令吉的合约。该公司冀望今年竞标80亿令吉的计划,目前的订单为15亿令吉。

“一些已争取的合约仍有待公布,相信会在未来1至2个月揭晓。”

AK纳登昨天是在股东大会后,发表以上谈话。

實康明年營收大躍進

實康明年營收大躍進
Created 06/21/2013 - 11:33
(吉隆坡20日訊)實康(SALCON,8567,主板貿服組)預計在產業及水務雙重貢獻之下,明年營業額將“大步躍進”。

實康執行董事拿督梁國華在股東大會後表示,多元化業務至產業的成果料於明年開始顯現,加上現有水務業務貢獻,預見明年營業額將明顯增長。

目前,該公司已在士拉央推出發展總值1億5千萬令吉的SOHO產業,取得40%簽購率,預計3年內可竣工,另外該公司亦計劃在新山發展住宅及商用產業,發展總值12億令吉。

Marco Polo Marine: Taking Another Bite Of The Indonesian Pie

Marco Polo Marine: Taking Another Bite Of The Indonesian Pie
(BUY, SGD0.375, TP: SGD0.61)

MPM announced that its associate PT Bina Buana Raya (BBRM) has acquired a 9,000bhp AHTS vessel to be deployed in Indonesian waters. Channel checks indicate that this is a bargain-priced asset, resulting in an ROE of 90% on this vessel. Future vessel additions will provide visibility to FY14F growth. MPM is deeply undervalued at 4.9x FY14F EPS with 39% growth visible, 0.85x P/B while delivering 15%-16% ROE. Indonesian market offers 30% premium over regional rates. We see this vessel, MP Prevail, earning USD2/bhp/day, which is the market rate inIndonesia.

Singapore REITs: Returning to normal (DB)

Singapore REITs
Returning to normal- upgrade AREIT to Buy

Valuations more attractive after pullback; AREIT upgraded to Buy

SREIT valuations have returned to long term averages after the recent pullback. Near-term earnings risk is also relatively minor given proactive capital management. Counter to intuition, correlation between rising rates and REIT performance has been low historically. We have upgraded AREIT to Buy with valuations now attractive, but are still overall selective with interest rates expected to rise further, equity issuance overhanging, and valuations only back to long term averages. We prefer REITs less exposed to rising rates and with leverage on growth. Buy AREIT, CCT and MINT.

Container Shipping : Formation Of P3 Network Is Positive To Capacity Discipline In The Long Term (UOBKH)

Formation Of P3 Network Is Positive To Capacity Discipline In The Long Term
Maersk, MSC and CMA CGM announced a new alliance called P3 Network. We believe the cooperation between the three industry leaders would help to improve capacity discipline in the long run. Moreover, we are upbeat on the upcoming AE rate increase. Maintain OVERWEIGHT on multiple catalysts and cheap valuations. Top pick is OOIL (316 HK) and we also like CSCL (2866 HK) and NOL (NOL SP).

What’s New
• Formation of P3 Network. This week, the three largest container carriers, Maersk, Mediterranean Shipping Co (MSC) and CMA CGM, agreed to form a long-term alliance on the major East-West trades. The P3 Network alliance will operate a fleet of 255 ships with a total capacity of 2.6m TEU on 29 service loops on Asia-Europe (AE), transpacific (TP) and trans-Atlantic routes. The alliance plans to start operations in 2Q14, subject to regulatory approval. The network will be operated by a joint vessel operating centre, but the three lines will continue to have fully independent sales, marketing and customer service functions.

Expanding vessel fleet to boost Uni-Asia revenue

AT 995, the Baltic Dry Index is up by more than 40% over the past six months, as demand for dry freight is spurred by increasing production costs in China (by far the world’s largest market for iron ore).

This is good news for Uni-Asia Holdings, which took delivery of its 5th bulk carrier on 19 June through its wholly owned shipping unit Uni-Asia Shipping.

The 37,000 dwt handysize bulk carrier (M/V ANSAC PRIDE) was immediately deployed in a 5-year time charter to American Natural Soda Ash Corporation and will make immediate contributions to group earnings.

內銀缺水 人行打救傳聞四起

內銀缺水 人行打救傳聞四起
加上美退市恐慌 夜期再跌201點
2013年6月21日
【明報專訊】內地銀行間鬧錢荒已持續兩周,銀行間隔夜拆息昨天升至13.4厘的歷史新高(見圖)。傍晚市場更傳出,一間大型內銀因資金違約而需人行注資打救。有指該內銀為中國銀行(3988),也有版本指為國家開發銀行。中行隨即否認違約傳聞。分析人士認為,內地銀行間風險控制已到了必須正視的地步,人行今次等同逼銀行「現形」,警示銀行業要清理不規範操作。

內地拆息狂升,加上聯儲局表明年底前減少買債,令恒指昨天大跌逾600點(見另文),內銀股更成重災區。昨晚美股大跌,恒指夜期昨晚收市時報20,084點,較日間期指再跌201點。

Mapletree Logistics Trust : Acquires South Korean warehouse for S$32m (DBSV)

Mapletree Logistics Trust:
BUY S$1.14;
Acquires South Korean warehouse for S$32m, initial yield of 8.4%;
Price Target : 12-Month S$ 1.37

Mapletree Logistics Trust (MLT) announced the acquisition of a warehouse in South Korea ("The Box Centre") for a purchase consideration of KRW 28.75bn (S$32.0m). Upon completion of the deal, the vendor Oakline Co. Ltd, a current tenant of MLT, will lease-back the property for a period of 6 years, with annual rental escalations. Key sub-tenants include Hyundai Logis, a major logistics company in South Korea, and The Box, a subsidiary of Oakline.

Wilmar International: Some near-term headwinds(CIMB)

Wilmar International
Current S$3.30
Target S$3.74

 Some near-term headwinds
During our conference, Wilmar revealed that 2Q earnings may be weaker qoq as bird flu has led to a drop of around 10-20% in soya meal demand in China and refining margin may weaken when new refining capacity comes on stream in Indonesia.

There is also concern that sugar profitability may be diluted as sugarcane yield from its mills may be hit by the "yellow canopy syndrome" disease. But these are short-term negatives that do not shake our Outperform rating, which is underpinned by its cheap FY12 P/BV of 1.2x vs. the historical average of 2.1x. We maintain our SOP-based target price.

Jaya Chartering: strength to strength (CIMB)

Jaya Holdings
Current S$0.58
Target S$0.88

Chartering: strength to strength
We came away positive from Jaya’s meetings with investors at our Annual Asia Pacific Conference. After a two-year transition, we see that Jaya has successfully morphed into a quality charterer. An emergent OSV sector and on coming quality newbuilds should continue to buoy the business division.

We keep our FY13-15 EPS and target price based on 1x CY13 P/BV (the four-year mean).We maintain Outperform with catalysts to come from stronger chartering operations and shipbuilding and charter contracts.

China Fishery Why is the stock trading so far under water?

The stock is trading at one-third of its book value, pays a dividend, generates cash and has cash reserves. Are its issues in Russia, Peru and Namibia good enough reason for the sell-down?

20/6/2013 – China Fishery Group Limited is an SGX mainboard-listed fishing, fishmeal and fish oil company, whose share price is so far below its book value that value investors might be tempted to take a second look.

It also generates free cashflow, has cash in the bank, pays a dividend and has a ranking in the Governance & Transparency Index.

What's not to like?

Price is what you pay, value is what you get

Biosensors International Group Ltd - Why couldn't it meet its original revenue growth forecast?

19/6/2013 – Biosensors International Group, Ltd anticipates 15% growth in the revenue in FY2014.

That will be primarily driven by growth in product revenue, the launch of new products and the contribution from the newly acquired business of Spectrum Dynamics LLC.

The company says its royalty/licensing income will not grow over the financial year just ended, but a flat result would be an improvement on the 28.5% decline it registered in FY13.

In January 2013, the company raised US$240 mln through 4-year notes, at an interest rate of 4.875% pa.

With more than US$600 mln cash in its coffer at the end of FY13, the company says it isn't planning any further fundraising.

曾淵滄專欄 21.06.13:勿低估港人購買力

昨日到上海,準備參加今日舉行的「滬港兩地金融發展論壇」,參加者有來自上海、香港、北京的官員,以及金融界、學術界的人,人數不少。最近有傳媒報道上海也想學深圳搞個特特區,一個類似前海的金融特區,在特區內允許人民幣更自由地兌換。今日香港的地位,很大程度是得益於人民幣仍然不能自由兌換,一旦人民幣可以自由兌換,上海、深圳皆是香港這個國際金融中心的有力挑戰者。

近來有兩個有關競爭力的排名公佈,一個是瑞士做的國際排名,香港由第一跌至第三,另一個是中國內地做的,香港由第二降至第五。一向以來,我不會太重視這類排名比賽的名次,何謂競爭力本身是一個很富爭論性的課題。任何排名總會有打分,分項打分,不同項目代表競爭力的不同因素,哪一些因素比另一些因素更重要?這也是沒有定論的,主觀成份很重。

SBC Corporation Bhd - Deep RNAV value

SBC Corporation Bhd -
Price Target:2.35
Last Price:1.73
Deep RNAV value

INVESTMENT MERIT

- Low land cost. Most of SBC’s landbanks were acquired between the period of 2000-2004, hence relatively low in land cost. Out of its c.134ac landbank, the bulk (59%) are located in Ulu Selangor, 23% are located in KL (mostly in the Mukim Batu area), 10% are in Kota Kinabalu (“KK”) and the remaining in Kuantan. Their Mukim Batu land is near the Taman Wahyu area while they also have niche landbank along Jln Ipoh. Landbanks in KK are in Signal Hill  and Tj Lipat, which is a prime area and MAHSING has projects there that have fared well in terms of take-up rates and pricings. Their net gearing is comfortably at 0.2x  which provides ample room for landbanking.

Thursday, June 20, 2013

國際船務2015年營運趨穩

國際船務2015年營運趨穩
Created 06/20/2013 - 11:08
(吉隆坡19日訊)隨著業務架構改變,國際船務(MISC,3816,主板貿服組)預見今年業績表現會勝過去年,但鑒於整體船務領域仍走軟,預計到了2015年營運才能趨穩。

未取得大量訂單

該公司總裁兼首席執行員拿督納沙魯丁在股東大會後表示,雖然石油及化學船運復甦,不過未取得大量訂單,料2015年才有望更大幅度吸納市場的過剩供應。

“目前船艦租用費能否持穩仍是未知數,加上船務領域供應也相當龐大。”

國際船務的55至60%合約的租用費固定,其餘的則跟隨市價波動。

美退場論嚇退外資‧亞股陷紅海

美退場論嚇退外資‧亞股陷紅海
Created 06/20/2013 - 17:30
(吉隆坡20日訊)全球股市再受美國聯儲局發表的退場論驚嚇,加上中國潛在面對信貸危機,游資大舉撤退導致今日亞股身處一片紅海中,普遍滑瀉1%至3%。

不過,由於這並非聯儲局首次提出退場論,因而區域股市的下行幅度未陷入恐慌格局。

聯儲局主席伯南克預告量化寬鬆(QE)“末日”將近,令週三美股19日下殺,道瓊斯工業指數重挫206.04點或1.35%,而納斯達克及標準普爾500指數也分別丟失1.12%及1.39%至3443.20點及1628.93點。

曾淵滄教路 12.06.13: 城鎮化只窮人入城 康師傅成最大得益者

城鎮化只窮人入城 康師傅成最大得益者
前一陣子,香港股市曾經出現一股炒中國城填化概念熱潮,理由是中國新領導班子非常重視城鎮化的規劃,視之為今後中國經濟可持續發展的最重要方向,股市更一度傳出城鎮化是一項四十萬億人民幣的龐大規劃,四十萬億是二○○八年溫家寶的四萬億基建的十倍,不可謂不驚人。但是,不久前又有外電報道說這項四十萬億人民幣的城鎮化規劃已遭總理李克強否決,投入規模將大幅收縮……

戶籍改革為主力

上星期,我出席一個有關中國城鎮化的論壇,主講嘉賓是中國中央發改委的官員,從他們的講話中,城鎮化的主力不是基建投入,而是戶籍的改革,目前中國總人口是13.5億,城鎮居民為7.1億,這7.1億居民中有2.5億是沒有戶籍的農民工,另0.7億是城市與城市之間的遷移,這些人在其目前居住的城市沒有戶籍,享受不到任何城鎮地方政府為當地有戶籍居民所提供的福利,這包括教育、醫療、失業援助、社保……這造成非常嚴重的社會問題,農民工多單獨一人在城鎮裏打工,等春節時才回鄉省親。

连接更多现有公共交通系统 MRT2 带旺住宅区

连接更多现有公共交通系统 MRT2 带旺住宅区
Created 06/20/2013 - 09:59
(吉隆坡19日讯)捷运路线2(简称MRT2)川行和联系更多住宅区,分析员认为,在周围拥有土地和发展项目的发展商将受惠,例如IJM置地(IJMLand,5215,主板产业股)和实达集团(SPSetia,8664,主板产业股)。

近期与本地产业市场专家何振顺一起研究MRT2旗下捷运站的潜能后,肯纳格投资研究分析员发觉,有别于捷运路线1(简称MRT1),路线2会以住宅区为主,穿越较少的商业区。

增值能力强

3大利好因素 油气股仍有上扬空间

3大利好因素 油气股仍有上扬空间
Created 06/20/2013 - 10:25
(吉隆坡19日讯)尽管油气股股价从年初至今已出现涨潮,但在三大原因下,投行认为油气股仍有上扬空间。

投行报告指出,这3大利好因素围绕油气领域,分别为国家石油公司在2011至2015年的3000亿令吉资本开销、具利好价值的长期合约,和油价料处在每桶90至100美元的水平,因而维持对该领域“增持”投资评级。

兴业研究投行表示,油气领域已被视为推动大马朝向高收入国的领域之一,国家石油的蓝图计划将带来支撑力,包括强化采油(EOR)计划、小型油田发展以及扩大能源支持,让分析员长期持正面看法。

营运环境虽艰困 马船务国际展望乐观

营运环境虽艰困 马船务国际展望乐观
Created 06/20/2013 - 09:51
(吉隆坡19日讯)尽管船务领域充满挑战以及营运环境艰困,但马国际船务(MISC,3816,主板贸服股)仍乐观看待可在今年取得更多盈利以及更强劲的表现。

该公司总裁兼总执行长拿督纳萨鲁丁表示,今年将集中在整合活动、优化成本以及重新平衡投资组合与多元化收入来源。

“我们能够在2011与2012年大放异彩,主要是我们退出了班轮集装箱航运业务,无需再提供拨备金。”

纳萨鲁丁在出席股东大会后,向记者作出上述表示。

CEO: MBSB not in hurry to get banking licence

The Star Online > Business
Thursday June 20, 2013
CEO: MBSB not in hurry to get banking licence

KUALA LUMPUR: The Malaysia Building Society Bhd (MBSB), a non-bank financial provider, is not in a hurry to get a banking licence from Bank Negara Malaysia, president and chief executive officer Datuk Ahmad Zaini Othman said.

He said MBSB must first practise and perform like a bank before its application was approved by the central bank. “Licence is something that can come later but we must get ready to operate and move into the banking environment first to train ourselves to be ready,” he told a press conference after launching MBSB’s coffee table book.

迎合投资者要求 艾华仙台派更多股息

迎合投资者要求 艾华仙台派更多股息

(吉隆坡19日讯)艾华仙台(SENDAI,5205,主板建筑股)有意派发更多股息,以迎合股东和机构投资者的要求。

艾华仙台执行主席兼集团董事经理丹斯里AK纳登在股东大会后对媒体表示,「常年股东大会进行顺利。股东的焦点在於派发更多股息,而机构投资者如雇员公积金局(EPF)和朝圣基金局(Lembaga Tabung Haji)亦如此。 因此,我们將迎合他们的要求,派发更多的股息。我们在2012財政年共派出4仙股息。」

纳登认为,艾华仙台股价无法反映公司的价值。对於他本身在公司的持股比重高,市场流通量低以致股价变化不大的问题,他则以艾华仙台的股价被市场低估为由,无意在现阶段脱售所持股权。

Midas : Awaiting HSR contracts (DBSV)

Midas Holdings
BUY S$0.47
STI : 3,213.79
Price Target : 12-Month S$ 0.60

 2-day NDR in HK was well received
• Firm optimism that high-speed railway orders will be handed out in 2H13
• Metro segment continues to boom as associate NPRT grows its order books to over RMB10bn
• Maintain BUY with S$0.60 TP (1.2x P/B)

All eyes on China Railway Corporation for new high speed train orders. We hosted Midas’ CEO and CFO for a two-day NDR in Hong Kong, and key concerns revolved around when the new high-speed train orders would be coming through. With China planning to double its HSR network to 18,000km by end-2015 and lack of orders for rolling stock in the last two years, there is firm optimism that the newly-formed China Railway Corporation could be placing orders for new HSR rolling stock in the second half of 2013, which should lead to substantial contract wins for Midas. Meanwhile, the group has won a number of metro and overseas train contracts to boost its order book to Rmb650m, up from Rmb400m at the end of 2012.

All systems go for the Klang Valley MRT

All systems go for the Klang Valley MRT
By Maybank IB Research
Wednesday, 19 June 2013 12:06
Construction
Maintain overweight: The Klang Valley MRT 1 project is on track, with RM20.44 billion worth of contracts already awarded and 6% of construction milestones reached. Both phases should be completed by July 31, 2017. All eyes will next be on the government’s decision on the two other MRT lines. The finalisation of these two lines could take some time, however, as the government wants to reduce their complexity in order to obtain buy-ins from all stakeholders. Lines 2 and 3 will provide longer-term jobs visibility for the construction sector.

Falcon Energy: Expanding into offshore drilling market to tap strong demand (CS)

Falcon Energy Group
Price (18 June 13, S$) 0.3
NOT RATED
Expanding into offshore drilling market to tap strong demand

● Credit Suisse hosted lunch with the CEO of Falcon Energy, which entered the offshore drilling market through ordering two jack-up rigs with Chinese yard CMHI in October 2011.

● Falcon’s management were positive on the jack-up rig market, noting that while the yard price of the rigs was US$180 mn, the current market price is closer to US$220 mn. The company further ordered a Super B class jack-up from Keppel in April 2013 for US$226 mn.

MBSB gears up to be full-fledged bank

MBSB gears up to be full-fledged bank

2013/06/20

KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysia Building Society Bhd (MBSB) is gearing up to transform itself into a full fledged bank before the central bank approves its application for a banking licence.

President and chief executive officer Datuk Ahmad Zaini Othman said the company is not in a hurry to get the licence from Bank Negara Malaysia, but the priority now is to practice and perform like a bank.

"The licence is something that can come later but we must get ready to operate and move into the banking environment first to train ourselves to be ready," he said at the launch of MBSB's coffee table book, entitled, "Building Society: The MBSB Story".

IGB plans to inject Johor assets into REIT in 5 years

IGB plans to inject Johor assets into REIT in 5 years
By Sharen Kaur
sharen@mediaprima.com.my
2013/06/20

KUALA LUMPUR: IGB Corp Bhd is set to grow its real estate investment trust (IGB REIT), currently valued at RM4.5 billion, by injecting assets from its property development ventures in Johor in about five years.

Group managing director Robert C.M. Tan said it is in IGB's plan to retain some assets to diversify its recurring income base.

"We do not have large tracts of land like other developers, that is why we are looking at other avenues such as recurring income to improve our earnings.

'Eversendai shares undervalued'

'Eversendai shares undervalued'
Sharen Kaur
sharen@mediaprima.com.my
2013/06/20

TAN Sri AK Nathan, the founder of Eversendai Corp Bhd, says the company is undervalued by the market.

On a year-to-date basis, Eversendai shares, which are listed on the Main Market, are down by 12.35 per cent, while the all blue-chip FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI (FBM KLCI) is up by 17.67 per cent during the same period.

The slide in Eversendai's share price comes at a time when the broader market has been on a record-breaking feat this year, with the FBM KLCI surpassing the 1,700 points for the first time in its history.

Muhibbah’s shares rally on vessel delivery

Muhibbah’s shares rally on vessel delivery
By Muhammed Ahmad Hamdan
bt@mediaprima.com.my
2013/06/20

Muhibbah was the eighth most actively traded stock, jumping some 18 sen to end at RM1.60 a share, its highest close in nine months.

KLANG: Muhibbah Engineering Bhd’s shares rallied after the company delivered Malaysia’s first homemade diesel electric platform supply vessel (PSV) to Icon Offshore Bhd, the country’s third largest offshore vessel support company.

Muhibbah was the eighth most actively traded stock, jumping some 18 sen to end at RM1.60 a share, its highest close in nine months.

Small-cap stocks in for a bull run?

Small-cap stocks in for a bull run?
By Roziana Hamsawi and Lim Cian Yai
bt@mediaprima.com.my
2013/06/20

OUTPERFORM RECOMMENDATION: Average earnings of small-capitalised companies came in ahead of market estimates, says research house

A revival of small-cap companies may be in the offing, after one of the country’s top research houses urged investors to buy stocks of such companies traded on Bursa Malaysia.

CIMB Research had upgraded the small-cap sector to “outperform” from its previous “neutral” recommendation.

麥嘉華:美股勢調整

【業界預測】

有「末日博士」之稱的麥嘉華早前接受財經雜誌《巴隆氏》訪問時表示,在美國經濟擴張期進入第四個年頭之際,接近零息水平將導致資本進一步錯配。現在或許是美股最後的加速階段,標普500指數可能在接下來兩個月升至1750點甚至2000點後就出現大調整。

轉投亞洲股票
麥嘉華認為,儲局一直向金融體系注資,但這些資金並未均衡地流入體系內,亦未同步提高經濟活動和資產價格水平,反而在各國及各種資產類別構成高危地過剩,多數投資者都難有好結果。麥嘉華又指,若標普500指數下跌20%,儲局將加大印鈔力度,反而債市有可能崩潰,通脹有可能加速。

摩通:中小內銀仍要跌

【本報訊】近期內地多項不利消息衝着內銀股而來,包括中央收水、打擊不規範財富管理業務等等,至於內銀抵買與否,摩通大通於研究報告表示,現時內銀股股價低迷,按月已平均累跌近一成,市賬率僅為0.9倍,但由於息差繼續收窄、中央收緊監管、資產增長放緩以及貸款質素變差等的風險驟升,相信中小型內銀仍然有下跌空間。

影子銀行借貸風險高
報告又指,中小內銀承受較高的影子銀行借貸風險,財富管理產品又擁有較多非標準化的信貸資產(NSCA),所以股價較疲弱。報告顯示,招商銀行(3968)、中信銀行(998)、民生銀行(1988)的財富管理產品NSCA佔總資產比例為港上市同業間比較高,分別佔4至5%,股價自2月高位至今的跌幅達到24%至31%,至於建行(939)、工行(1398)、中行(3988)、交行(3328)相關比例僅1至2%。

Where will freight rates go? (CIMB)


 Where will freight rates go?
Container shipping share prices reacted very positively in Tuesday afternoon trading after news emerged that the top three liners will be forming a mega-alliance on the three main trades. Meanwhile, the 1 July rate hikes are expected to be partially successful.

 But without more serious capacity discipline, the rate hikes could fade quickly. As a result, we maintain our Neutral sector rating, with OOIL and SITC as our top Outperform picks given their lower-risk profiles. In the short term, high-beta CSCL may do well but investors trading the sector need to be nimble as valuations are not as attractive as in late-2011. Also, CIMB and consensus EPS forecasts will likely need downgrading to reflect the very poor spot rates.

曾淵滄專欄 20.06.13:長賭必輸有辦你睇

前晚,銀娛(027)一眾高層請吃晚飯,慶祝銀娛晉身恒指成份股。銀娛的前身是嘉華建材,只是一隻三線股,現在能晉身藍籌股,說明了一件很重要的事,那就是長賭必輸,如果賭客會贏賭場,賭場就不會如此好賺。今日,依然有很多人把股市當賭場,賭自己的眼光與運氣。你若以賭的心態買股票,就算你曾經眼光不錯,買中銀娛,相信也不可能持股這麼久,你若在1元買入,很可能2元就賣掉,怎麼會持貨至今日40元呢?

當然,也有不少人懷疑我的長揸不放策略,不少股友向我抱怨在40元買國壽(2628),至今賬面虧損巨大,不過如果大家還記得我過去寫的文章,我多次告訴大家,我只買過一次國壽,那是國壽新股上市那一天買的,然後持有至今。

異動空間:太航轉牛要吼實 - 魏力

中港股市弱到震,但航運股逆市突圍,全線連日炒上,係咪時候買?航運業無疑正處於復蘇周期,波羅的海乾散貨指數(BDI)連升九日創逾半年新高,反映近年供過於求的問題正逐步改善,意味航運股曙光初現!

寧買當頭起,揀行內最強股份,太平洋航運(2343)為必然首選。魏力認為太航醞藏三大爆升藥引,隨時於下半年強勢起動。先講基本因素,太航主攻靈便型小船,載貨量1萬至3.9萬公噸,調配相對靈活,貨量較少亦可滿載而行,在經濟不景下盡顯防守力。

供應方面,麥格理報告指船租去年已見底,現正處於消化過剩供應的最後階段,明年船租及運費可望回升。太航上周公佈將10艘船轉租為買,明顯睇好後市,故運用手上充裕的現金壯大船隊,準備下半年起開turbo賺錢!

Starhill Global REIT : Reversions Flowing In (UOBKH)

Starhill Global REIT
Share Price S$0.865
Target Price S$1.06

Reversions Flowing In
SGREIT is set to benefit from rental reversions with the 6.7% uplift from Toshin master lease, together with upcoming reversions in Australia and Malaysia. The recent conversion of CPUs is in line with projections, while the recent dip in interest and exchange rates in Australia may open up opportunities for refinancing and acquisitions. Maintain BUY with target price of S$1.06 based on DDM (rate of return: 6.5%, terminal: 2.0%).

What’s New
• Toshin master lease renewed with 6.7% upward rental reversion, based on the average of three independent market valuations. The renewal rent will be valid for a period of 12 years from 8 Jun 13, with a provision for a rental review every three years during the renewal period.

聯儲局議息重點




美國聯儲局今晨結束一連兩日議息會議,一如預期維持每月850億美元購債規模,以及聯邦基金利率介乎0至0.25厘不變,亦繼續以失業率降至6.5%才作為考慮加息的門檻,但調高就業市場評估並指經濟下滑風險降低,市場解讀為歷來最明顯的退市訊號。

Wednesday, June 19, 2013

金融时报PK美联储通讯社 谁才是真正的QE先知

金融时报PK美联储通讯社 谁才是真正的QE先知
2013年06月18日 08:47
来源:汇通网

周二(6月18日)亚市早盘,美元指数低位整理,现交投于80.60一线。目前随着万众瞩目的美联储6月货币政策会议即将召开,市场的交投情绪也愈发谨慎,隔夜美国三大股市收盘上涨,主要货币对维持震荡。

对于此次美联储决议可能产生的结果,不少市场人士此前早已按捺不住,猜测纷纷。而隔夜市场显然更具戏剧性。继上周被市场称为“美联储通讯社”的华尔街日报记者乔恩-希尔森拉特对美联储可能采取的政策大放厥词后,隔夜金融时报(FT) 也刊文发表了自己的观点,并一度导致了市场的剧烈波动。

MRT2: Construction & Property play

CONSTRUCTION & PROPERTY - MRT2:
Construction & Property play

Touring KVMRT2 Line with Ho Chin Soon. In May-13 Gamuda revealed the proposed KVMRT Line 2 (Red Line: Sg Buloh – Serdang - Putrajaya) and KVMRT Line 3 (Green Line) alignment but MRT stations are only made known for Line 2. The approvals for KVMRT Line 2 are expected to be in Jul-13 with tenders as early as 2015. Together with Ho Chin Soon, we toured KVMRT Line 2 alignment and stations to determine the major differences against KVMRT Line1 (Sungai Buloh – Kajang).

惠譽警告內銀信貸風險升

【本報訊】纏擾着內地金融體系的問題持續不斷,繼早年有地方債,近年又有不合規的理財產品,甚至衍生出影子銀行。

評級機構惠譽中國金融機構主管朱夏蓮直言,在經濟增長追不上清理問題貸款的步伐下,內地銀行信貸風險升溫,一旦影子銀行爆煲,中小型銀行將最受傷害。

對於惠譽評內銀,英國傳媒《每日電訊報》前日以此題目訪問朱夏蓮後,更以題為「中國信貸爆沫風險前所未見」發表文章,惟朱夏蓮於訪問中未有提過前所未見等字眼。

朱夏蓮昨於記者會上表示,影子銀行的規模、貸款人甚至放貸人的身份完全不明,實在難以監管及防範,令系統性風險增加。她補充指,內地監管機構正積極清理該些來歷不明的影子銀行資金,相信短期內不會對內地金融業造成嚴重打擊。

Downgrade for M-REITs (CIMB)

Downgrade for M-REITs
We downgraded M-REITs from Overweight to Neutral last week, on unattractive valuations (compressed yield spreadsandhigh P/BV) and occupancy concerns in the retail and office sectors. Rising interest rates remainthe key de-rating catalysts for REITs in the region.

 We retain our fundamental positive view on ASEAN developers despite concerns over capital outflows and weaker currencies. Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand remain Overweights on strong earnings growth.

內銀抵買 前景仍難樂觀

【本報訊】表面平靚正的內銀股,其實內裏問題多多,股價近年屢被資金緊張的問題拖累,至於影子銀行風險更是深不見底,令股價裹足不前。一線內銀股的市盈率僅5至6倍的低殘水平,四大國銀之中,中行(3988)市賬率更低於1倍。有基金經理指,雖然內銀股估值便宜,但前景仍難以樂觀。

內銀股累跌7% 跑輸恒指
內銀股年初受惠資金湧入內地,股價曾經出現可觀升勢,惟2月開始資金流走兼內地收水,同時中央按奈不住出手監控影子銀行,令內銀股走勢逆轉,年初至今,本港上市9隻內銀股股價清一色見紅,平均下跌7.18%,跑輸恒指的6.32%跌幅,再一次令投資者失望。其中經營策略越保守,股價越硬淨,中行下跌0.62%已算最好,過往非利息收入表現理想的招行(3968),今年被投資者捨棄,年初至今下挫14.22%,同業股價表現最差。

摩根資產管理副總裁兼市場策略師譚慧敏指,雖然內銀股估值便宜,但中央開始加強監管影子銀行,令板塊存在陰霾。

內地拆息高 放水機會微

【期望不高】

上海銀行同業拆息(SHIBOR)抽高,反映內地流動資金緊張,即使短期拆息已回落,惟長期拆息仍居高不下,主要因為內地銀行在半年結前要鎖定成本較低的流動資金,造成一個月SHIBOR抽高至7厘以上,3個月SHIBOR則約5.25厘。專家認為,拆息高企同樣反映業界對人行放水、減存款準備金的期望不高。

翻查紀錄,SHIBOR對上一次高達現水平,要追溯至2012年1月,其後人行減存準釋出流動性,其後拆息一直維持低位,難怪現市傳人行最快今晚會減存準。不過,東亞貨幣及利率交易部主管陳德祥表示,拆息高企反映業界對人行放水期望不大,相信減存準之說成事機會不高。

沿海工程提昇價值鏈

沿海工程提昇價值鏈
Created 06/18/2013 - 17:31
(吉隆坡18日訊)沿海工程(COASTAL,5071,主板工業產品組)進軍升降式鑽油平台業務領域,這將可改善其重複性收入,提昇公司價值鏈及多元化旗下業務。

黃氏唯高達指出,沿海工程收購的升降式鑽油平台,料將在2014年次季交貨。管理層計劃將鑽油平台外包,因為該公司缺乏經營鑽油機專業。該公司是以2億美元(約6億令吉)收購鑽油平台,主要是內部資金及貸款融資。

負債率仍比同儕低

該行指出,若是沿海工程以30:70的現金與貸款比例融資收購鑽油平台,這將使該公司的負債率增加至0.4倍。這依然比同儕來得低,如貝利賽(PERISAI,0047,主板貿服組)為0.6倍,以及合順油氣則為0.9倍。

財技解碼:匯金入市=A股見底?

財技解碼:匯金入市=A股見底?
http://paper.wenweipo.com   [2013-06-19]    
 港股及A股近日積弱,國家財政部轄下中央匯金公司連日入市,繼上周四、五再度以約3.63億元(人民幣,下同)增持四大內銀A股。有別於此前只是增持四大銀行,此次匯金也增持光大銀行及新華保險A股。匯金同時承諾,自增持日起計算,未來6個月內也會繼續在二級市場增持以上四家國有銀行的股份。

 匯金過往四次宣佈增持後,上證綜指均有不同的走勢及波幅:匯金首輪增持內銀計劃始於2008年9月18日,一年間向建行、工行及中行購入合共4.91億股。消息公佈後,股市上升1周後下跌個半月,跌近25%,之後展開了9個月的升浪,升幅近倍。匯金於2009年10月9日啟動第二輪增持,一年間向該3間內銀增持5,133.8萬股。但該次升2個月約19%後,下跌了7個月約28%。而第三輪增持計劃則在2011年10月10日啟動,一年內增持9.67億股四大內銀的股份。該次股市升近1個月約4%後,下跌2個月約15%。匯金在去年10月10日啟動為期6個月的第四輪針對四大行的增持計劃,共增持8.4億股。當時A股已出現較長時間的下跌,但公佈後股市略升1周後再下跌近2個月約6%,至去年12月發力大升,在近2個月內升24%,補回去年全年的跌幅。

彤叔系新股不宜長

彤叔系新股不宜長
2013年6月19日
【明報專訊】鄭裕彤家族的上市王國中,除了新世界發展(0017)至今股價仍有正回報外,大部分至今都潛水。分析員認為,反映鄭家判斷產業榮枯時機精準,得以在估值最高時集得最多資金。鄭裕彤家族在過去15年分拆的多家上市公司,主要如新世界中國(0917)、新世界百貨(0825)、新礦資源(1231)及周大福珠寶(1929),均在股市高峰,或有關投資概念最盛時,以較高估值招股。不過至今上述股份皆要潛水,股價長期未能回到招股價之上。對上市公司而言,可以因此集得更多資金,但對跟風入股的散戶來說,長線投資卻多要輸錢收場。

在眾多分拆出來的股份中,跌幅最厲害的為新世界中國,股價相比1999年招股價9.5元相差69.79%,還要應付兩次供股集資,長期持有人「賠了夫人又折兵」。其他被分拆上市的股份方面,新礦資源在過去一年更沒有收入,股價亦大跌逾半。至於分拆了眾多子孫公司上市的新世界發展,反而近年表現神勇,去年更是藍籌升幅之王。不過要數散戶輸得最勁的應是蒙古能源(0276),因炒資源變身概念,市值一度逾千億元,但至昨日只剩下16億元,高追的散戶,股票幾成廢紙。

周大福業績走樣 純利跌13%

周大福業績走樣 純利跌13%
鄭家純:有信心今年銷售雙位數增
2013年6月19日
【明報專訊】鄭裕彤家族的上市旗艦周大福(1929),上市以來第2份全年成績表走樣,純利按年倒退13%,營業額只升1.5%,與主席鄭家純去年所說「營業額可3年翻一番」相去甚遠。但昨日他在記者會上仍對實現目標表示有信心,又稱今年銷售可重回雙位數增長。不過在業績倒退之時,公司依然慷慨派息,末期息較去年大增60%。

除業績以外,周大福股價亦繼續潛水,以昨日收市價8.66元計算,已較招股價15元大跌了42%。除了去年1月曾一度升至15.14元外,股價至今都未能返家鄉,小股東無奈要陪彤叔「坐艇」(見圖)。

Sarawak Oil Palms rides out global storm

Sarawak Oil Palms rides out global storm
By Ooi Tee Ching
bt@mediaprima.com.my
2013/06/18

BETTER MARGINS: The 2013 change inof palm oil tax structure gave breathing space to refiners in Malaysia. Sarawak Oil Palms Bhd’s recent downstream venture turned the corner and is now running at full capacity. Ooi Tee Ching writes

MIRI: 2012 was the Year of the Dragon, considered the luckiest of the Chinese lunar years, but the auspicious creature was not kind at all to Malaysia's palm oil industry.

曾淵滄專欄 19.06.13:馬雲挺股市有一手

美國聯儲局上一次會議,向市場發出退市訊號,結果港股大跌,跌幅更遠超美股;看來,打擊港股的,除了美國退市的陰影外,更重要的是中國人民銀行的收緊銀根及海關嚴查假出口所引發的壓力,港股是在中美股市一齊轉差的情況之下,面對雙重壓力而跌下來。

儘管目前港股不濟,但過去曾經私有化、退出香港股市的阿里巴巴,卻正在密鑼緊鼓的準備重新上市。舊的阿里巴巴只是佔整個集團中的B2B業務,這一回則是整體上市。2007年,阿里巴巴創下紀錄,以100倍PE上市,上市後股價再升一倍,PE變200倍,實在驚人;這一回,阿里巴巴整體上市,相信馬雲必有絕招先搞活股市,否則在目前低迷的股市情況下上市,吃力不討好,馬雲不但懂得搞網站,也是股壇高手,阿里巴巴要重新上市,馬雲先得設法搞活整個股市的氣氛。

Singapore Equity Strategy (Phillip)

Singapore Equity Strategy
Industrials (Capital Goods) – Positive outlook
We continue to see upsides for stocks in the Industrials (Capital Goods) sector. We see strong order wins for the various stocks in their niche area of business, due to their competitive advantage. This includes positive track records for the O&M Sector, and the ability to benefit from Singapore’s construction boom. Most stocks in the sector remain reasonably priced.

Commodities – CPO price pressure to continue
Higher production of Crude Palm Oil (CPO), coupled with an anticipated higher soybean harvest in CY2H13 puts pressure on CPO prices. Upstream operators are expected to be adversely affected, leading to continued underperformance relative to the broader market.

Riverstone resumed its share buy back program (Limtan)

RIVERSTONE HOLDINGS
S$0.51-RSTON SP

 Riverstone resumed its share buy back program having bought 50,000 shares at 50 cents each, raising their cumulative purchases to 393,000 shares. (we estimate their average cost close to the 50 cents level)

 At its last close of 51 cents, it is only down 2.8% from its recent high in May ’13, much better than STI’s 8% decline, likely reflecting good share price support from its share buy back program.

Tat Hong MANAGEMENT REPLY: What are its prospects in Myanmar?

Everyone is talking about Myanmar, and Tat Hong is jumping on board with a joint venture. But let's not forget it's a frontier market. Many details of the JV are yet to be disclosed.

18/6/2013 - Tat Hong, Asia-Pacific's largest crane-owner, expects its crane rental division to perform well in FY14.

This is because the outlook for its key markets in Southeast Asia and Hong Kong remains positive.

Its operations in Australia will continue to benefit from committed and new project starts, especially in the oil and gas sector.

The distribution division is expected to maintain its performance in FY14.

Tuesday, June 18, 2013

QE若退場外資撤離‧大馬挺得住

QE若退場外資撤離‧大馬挺得住
Created 06/18/2013 - 17:30
(吉隆坡18日訊)美國量化寬鬆政策(QE)潛在退市消息傳得沸沸揚揚,令全球資金市場陷入一陣混亂,分析員認為美國若帶頭退市,新興亞洲市場恐掀起有如1997年亞洲金融風暴時的外資撤離潮,但相信大馬經濟基本面今非昔比,預見國內經濟不會陷入危機。

去年杪掀起的牛市已停止

豐隆研究表示,受到美國聯邦儲備局可能縮減QE政策消息,以及日本中央銀行振興經濟政策不夠積極等因素影響,導致外匯、債券和股票等市場出現亂流,其中全球股市自2012年杪掀起的牛市似乎已開始停止。

Daiwa positive on J-REITs, H-REITs; Neutral on S-REITs

Daiwa positive on J-REITs, H-REITs; Neutral on S-REITs
WRITTEN BY DOW JONES & CO, INC  
TUESDAY, 18 JUNE 2013 11:55

Daiwa maintains its Positive ratings for J-REITs and H-REITs, and its Neutral rating for S-REITs. Following a three-week global market trip, Daiwa says, by geography, Asia-based clients were most positive on REITs, while Europe-based clients appeared the most cautious, with many citing the previous false dawns in the Japan market.

It adds that, "All of our clients in Japan believe that Abenomics will lead to economic growth and inflation. Most US investors also believe that Abenomics is likely to succeed." However, while unit prices have corrected from recent peaks, Daiwa says valuations do not yet appear compelling. "Many REITs are still trading above their NAVs, and they were much cheaper not too long ago (in late 2011 and late 2008)."

2 年注销2000 万拨备金 富达重启利比亚业务

2 年注销2000 万拨备金 富达重启利比亚业务
Created 06/18/2013 - 12:05
(加影17日讯)经过一轮政治改革后,富达(Prtasco,5070,主板建筑股)将重回利比亚,重启之前被搁置的业务。

该公司董事经理拿督张吉平向《星报》表示,该公司在离开利比亚两年后,决定于本月杪重返该国重启业务。

“在停止了利比亚业务后,我们在过去2年注销了2000万令吉拨备金。”

他续称:“我们的机器还在那里,利比亚政府要求我们启动业务,我们的团队也因而回去几次。”

恒大置地 未入账销售4.25 亿

恒大置地 未入账销售4.25 亿
Created 06/18/2013 - 10:57
【目标价:1.58令吉】

最新进展:

恒大置地(Tambun,5191,主板产业股)将在2013财年推出价值约2亿5640万令吉的新项目,主要集中在威省珍珠城。

该公司放眼在截至今年12月杪财年,净利与营业额双位数增长。去年,该公司推出的项目总值8亿令吉。

行家建议:

截至今年3月份,该公司的未入账销售达4.25亿令吉,足以支撑其未来3年的盈利。

Theme 3: Situational - Myanmar plays (DBSV)

Theme 3: Situational - Myanmar plays
Myanmar is a unique theme which has been running independent of world economics for some time now. As long as progressive reforms are sustained to incentivise foreigners to participate in the development of the country, we believe the Myanmar theme will remain in play. In fact, Myanmar proxies were breaking new highs just before the market selloff. We see the current weakness as an opportunity for long term investors to accumulate.

Yoma Strategic Holdings (Buy, TP: S$1.08). With close to 100% of its land bank in Yangon, Yoma is a direct proxy to Myanmar’s booming real estate sector and is well positioned to benefit from Yangon’s severe demand/supply mismatch for quality residential, office, hotel / serviced apartment properties. Our latest channel checks with industry players indicated that selling prices of Yoma’s properties have hit new highs recently.

Theme 2: Search for Value and Growth (DBSV)

Theme 2: Search for Value and Growth
As global economies remain uncertain and any recovery is at best modest, our strategist does not expect a great rotation into growth assets yet. Hence, we propose focusing on high conviction growth stocks where earnings growth is highly visible and sustainable. These stocks are companies with fixed contracts and decent orderbooks, leaders in their respective markets or would be driven by company specific developments.

Ezion (BUY, TP: S$3.00) owns and charters liftboats, service rigs as well as tugs and barges. As a relatively young player that started off in 2007, Ezion has made a significant breakthrough by securing liftboat/service rig contracts from national and independent oil companies for offshore Malaysia, Indonesia, Brunei, Myanmar, Vietnam, India, Middle East, and even as far as Denmark and Mexico.

Theme 1: S-REITs opportunities emerge with recent sell-down (DBSV)

Theme 1: S-REITs opportunities emerge with recent sell-down
We believe that the recent sell-down among S-REITs on fears about the impact of rising bond yields is an overreaction and has opened up bargain hunting opportunities. DBS economist’s view is that QE3 will not taper anytime soon. The current SREITs yield spread of 3.9ppts has factored in long bonds in excess of 2.5% and the impact of higher interest costs remains manageable at < 3%.

With respect to 3 key dates, the price action of FTSE ST REIT Index also supports our view that the recent correction has overreacted in the short-term:

Shifting focus to growth (DBSV)

Shifting focus to growth
• SMCs can continue to outperform, supported by stronger growth and lower valuations
• Selloff in SREITs overdone, bargain hunt growth stocks
• Macro recovery still modest, stick to high conviction growth and value stocks

SMCs offer stronger growth at lower valuations.
The FTSE Small Cap Index (+7.7%) and DBSV’s SMC Index (-1.7%) outperformed the STI (-1.8%) and FTSE Mid Cap Index (-2.7%) YTD even as concerns of stimulus reduction led to a big selloff in equities recently. At a time when the hunt for high yields and dividends becomes less critical, the combination of higher earnings growth and lower PE valuations would enable SMCs to hold out better going forward.

匯金托市 股災日增持四大內銀

匯金托市 股災日增持四大內銀
允維持半年 國指擺脫12連跌回升
2013年6月18日
【明報專訊】上周恒生國企指數創歷來最長的跌浪,「國家隊」悄然出動,繼新華保險(1336)及光大銀行後,工行(1398)、建行(0939)、中行(3988)及農行(1288)昨日亦宣布在上周四A股大跌當天,獲中投旗下的匯金公司增持其A股。國指昨天已因增持消息結束12連跌,全日升0.8%,獲增持的新華保險升近3%(見表),因此中資銀行股將成為今天的焦點。但有分析認為,這次提振作用有限,中資銀行股前景仍未明朗。

匯金在今年4月才宣布上一輪增持計劃完畢,豈料事隔僅兩個月,又再開展新一輪增持計劃。昨晚四大行先後宣布獲匯金增持A股股份,當中以農行最多,獲增持約4293萬股,建行次之,獲增持約2449萬股,工行及中行亦分別獲增持1932萬股及1847萬股。若以四隻股份當天在A股的收市價計算,估計匯金共斥資約3.6億元人民幣。

股博士隨筆:中海油料重拾動力

股博士隨筆:中海油料重拾動力
在今年的商品價格跌浪中,原油是表現最佳的大宗商品,近日更升至每桶接近98美元的九個月高位,原因是敍利亞地緣政治緊張,一些意見認為種種原因令高油價難以持久,但油價亦一直在90美元之上保持硬淨已有多個月,並非一時興奮。不過,三大石油股股價並不跟隨油價,從高位跟隨大市調整超過兩成,論估值均相當吸引。

中國經濟今年上半年令人失望,成為石油股捱沽的主因,高盛昨將中石油(00857)和中石化(00386)的H股目標價分別調低至10.06元及7.3元。三隻石油股昨日回升幅度有2.7至4.1%,可視為大跌之後的技術反彈,但中石油、中石化及中海油(00883)的今年預測市盈率分別為9倍、6.6倍及8倍,全都低於歷史平均市盈率。

匯金掃內銀打淡友 增持建工中農行

【本報訊】國家隊死撐A股,空軍迴避,淡倉被挾。匯金繼上周增持光銀及新華保險A股後,四大內銀昨公佈獲匯金共斥資3.6億元(人民幣.下同)增持其A股,時間更為上周四中港股市大跌之際,增持股數普遍佔內銀A股當日成交至少兩成,大有國家隊保衞家園之勢。匯金出手後淡友似有收斂,港股昨平倉盤湧現觸發反彈1.2%,A股則表現偏軟。 
記者:林靜 董曉沂

本來匯金增持內銀,已成指定動作,過往幾乎每季均會入市買內銀股,惟是次罕有在同一日買齊四大行。昨日四大國有內銀建行(939)、工行(1398)、中行(3988)及農行(1288)發公告表示,中央匯金曾於上周四(13日),共斥3.63億元增持其A股,並指匯金會於未來六個月繼續在二級市場增持。翻查紀錄,上周四一中港股市一度勁瀉超過3%,建行A股更一度狂瀉逾6%,可見匯金增持行動是要為大冧市「維穩」。

Singapore REITs Rates Rose, REITs Retracted, Revealing Opportunity (MS)

Singapore REITs
Rates Rose, REITs Retracted, Revealing Opportunity

There’s opportunity in the recent correction –mispriced growth potential and limited rate impactsdrive our forecast for group-wide REIT yields tocontract back to 5.3%. Top pick Suntec REIT;upgrade A-REIT, CDL-HT to OW.

REITs retracted… REIT dividend yields and Singapore10-year government bond yields have expanded 40bps and 20bps, respectively, in the aftermath of the Fed meeting on 23 May. REIT share prices have fallen 6% on average, vs. a 4% fall in the STI Index. …but growth potential undiminished: We think dividend growth potential, the key driver for REIT yields, has not diminished, yet the market is now pricing in 2ppt less growth vs. our forecast of 6%. We see revenues supported by renewal of Office/Mall/Industrial rents 20%/6%/15% higher. Short interest rates, to which borrowing costs are pegged, should remain low – S-REITs are well hedged against a rate hike. We expect 2Q results season starting July to reaffirm dividend growth expectations and catalyze a re-rating.

Starhill Global REIT : CPU conversion slightly dilutive (CIMB)

Starhill Global REIT
Current S$0.88
Target S$0.93
CPU conversion slightly dilutive

 We are slightly negative on Starhill’s sponsor, YTL Group’s decision to convert its CPU holdings given the 1-3% dilution to FY13-15 DPUs, though this is offset by a higher sponsor stake post-CPU conversion. Maintain Neutral on valuation grounds.

We lower FY13-15 DPUs by 4-6%, factoring in dilution from the CPU conversion and adjustments to our Singapore rental estimates, offset partially by a 6.7% rental uplift from the Toshin master lease beginning June 2013. Our DDM-based target price drops marginally to S$0.93 (discount rate: 7.6%). We see potential re-rating catalysts in asset enhancement initiatives and accretive acquisitions.

First Resources Postcards: Ambulance chasers (NOmura)

First Resources
Target price Remains SGD 2.90
Closing price June 12, 2013 SGD 1.80
Postcards: Ambulance chasers

Site visit: Riau upstream and downstream
We spent a couple of days visiting FR’s assets in Riau: its seed garden & learning centre, one of its nearby plantations, the integrated downstream complex under construction as well as the existing one.

Day#1: Seed garden & learning centre + plantation
A short car ride away from the Pekanbaru airport, FR’s seed garden & learning centre compound is sizeable at 300ha (40ha for the seed garden itself). The company is developing its own strain through conventional cross-breeding techniques, as they believe the best seeds produced by the major players are kept for their own use and not sold on the market. FR hopes to produce ~8mn seeds per year by 2018/2019, yielding about ~30-40% higher and reaching peak yield ~1-2 years faster than its existing planted trees.

曾淵滄專欄 18.06.13:銀娛金沙地多取勝

昨日開始,銀娛(027)正式成為恒指成份股,恒指成份股中現在有兩隻賭業股,第一隻是金沙(1928)。實際上,金沙與銀娛原是同一家企業,當年申請澳門賭牌時,呂志和家族與美國威尼斯人(即金沙)合組銀娛這家企業,取得賭牌。之後,呂志和家族與威尼斯人決定分家,平分銀娛的資產,銀娛的品牌留給呂志和家族,威尼斯人則用回自己原本的金沙品牌。

分家前,舊銀娛最成功之處就是當年有膽量在路氹買下一幅非常巨大的土地。之後,這幅土地由銀娛與金沙平分,也一樣非常大,足夠讓這兩家賭場發展一期、二期、三期、四期……過去幾年,我多次評論澳門賭業股時,不斷地強調擁有大面積土地的重要性,也因此,我長期看好銀娛。

China Markets to Rebound : Dickie Wong Kingston Securities



Monday, June 17, 2013

Protasco going back to Libya, seeking compensation from Libyan Govt

The Star Online > Business
Monday June 17, 2013
Protasco going back to Libya, seeking compensation from Libyan Govt

By LEONG HUNG YEE
hungyee@thestar.com.my

KAJANG: Undeterred by previous losses, Protasco Bhd, a mid-sized integrated infrastructure company, is returning to Libya after halting operations there due to a revolution.

Group managing director Datuk Chong Ket Pen said the company was restarting business in Libya at end-June after exiting the country two years ago.

“We have written off RM20mil in provision in the past two years for our halted operations in Libya.

Vasu Menon: Your Buying Opportunity Ahead of Fed Meeting



依文仙台20億營收料達標

依文仙台20億營收料達標
Created 06/17/2013 - 17:26
(吉隆坡17日訊)依文仙台(SENDAI,5205,主板建筑組)放眼2017年達到20億令吉營業額目標,雖然過去兩年訂單補充量無法達到每年15億令吉預測,分析員相信其業務正面進展將有助於達標。

豐隆研究認為,若以達致淨利潤10%估算,預計該公司的盈利複合年均增長率(CAGR)為11.6%,並可從業務投資發展活動中實現,策略包括通過旗下70%子公司依文仙台工藝(Eversendai-Technics)滲透油氣製造領域及49%聯號公司Vahana建築私人有限公司(Vahana Construction S/B)推動總承包商價值鏈,未來亦希望拓展至綠地國家,如獨立國家聯合體(CIS)區域。

該行相信,憑藉依文仙台工藝的專精技術與中東的關係,將造就成功的合夥關係,加上Ras Al Khaimah製造設施可在今年杪完成,達到油氣相關營業額6億令吉目標不成問題,因為單是一項頂部結構已輕易可獲取超過5億令吉。

賺幅銷售改善‧啟順造紙業看好派高息

賺幅銷售改善‧啟順造紙業看好派高息
Created 06/17/2013 - 17:24
(吉隆坡17日訊)啟順造紙業(NTPM,5066,主板消費品組)2012財政年股息走低至1.45仙,但分析員隨該公司今年賺幅和銷售展望改善,看好該公司派發更高股息。

啟順造紙業2012財政年的股息,自2011財政年的2.9仙急降至1.45仙,礙於表現疲弱,該公司也未宣佈終期股息。

然而,興業研究對該公司業務的抗跌屬性保持樂觀,原料價好轉和該公司最近拓展業務至越南皆是利好,而在今年整體業務情況較往年優下,相信該公司能夠在今年派發更高的股息。

該公司在6月初,隨最低薪酬的落實上調產品價5至10%,以抵消營運成本走高的衝擊,興業因而隨賺幅改善和銷售提高,分別調高2013和2014財政年淨利4.3和14.2%,到4千890萬和5千550萬令吉。

資金大逃亡‧動搖馬股

資金大逃亡‧動搖馬股
Created 06/17/2013 - 17:33
(吉隆坡17日訊)全球股市拉起退市警報,令上週亞洲股市慘遭外資追殺,就連向來深具抗跌能力的馬股也不幸創下2008年金融危機以來的最大外資流出記錄,全賴本地資金出手扶持股市。

儘管美國聯邦儲備局即將舉行議息前,馬股隨區域股市反彈,惟分析員直言,上週四股市大震盪顯示,若美聯儲開始“收水”,市場恐出現大災難,傷勢較輕的馬股也料飽受外資倉皇而逃肆虐。

區域股市的外資流於上週面臨2008年金融危機以來最慘不忍睹的一週,全球資金大事撤離亞洲股市,令資金流逆轉的警鐘四起,MIDF研究的初步資料顯示,包括大馬的7大市場(韓國、台灣、泰國、印尼、菲律賓和印度)的外資盡呈淨賣出,外資拋售額更多達55億美元,不僅超過前週的31億美元,更創下金融風暴以來首度超過50億美元的窘境。

專注本地產業市場‧輝德放眼淨利增20%

專注本地產業市場‧輝德放眼淨利增20%
Created 06/17/2013 - 17:26
(吉隆坡17日訊)輝德控股(FITTERS,9318,主板貿服組)將於年杪前推出位於怡保路及萬撓的產業,同時放眼今年淨利可增長20%。

該公司董事經理拿督黃瑞意於股東大會後指出,該公司於怡保路發展的高層公寓發展值達1億2千萬令吉,進展理想,相信能夠在今年第三季推出;萬撓15英畝的發展計劃則預料在年杪推出。

暫無意拓展海外

他也表示,目前產業業務將專注於本地市場,待站穩陣腳後才考慮拓展海外。

大馬紙盒越南設新廠

大馬紙盒越南設新廠
Created 06/15/2013 - 16:37
(吉隆坡15日訊)大馬紙盒(BOXPAK,6297,主板工業產品組)擴充越南業務在河內設立新廠房,並預料3年後對淨利有顯著貢獻;另外,大馬業務今年卻可能因電子領域與出口表現放緩而拖累成長表現停滯。

鑒於在越南胡志明市的工廠佔用率已達約95%,為應付日漸增長的需求,該公司董事經理拿督施朝源表示,已經在河內設立新廠,預計今年第三季投入生產。

“我們預計該廠可推動越南業務對公司貢獻提高至75%左右,但或在3年以後才可見對淨利有較顯著的貢獻,即每月料可帶來約3萬至4萬令吉營收。”

麥博士教路 A股炒波幅

美國聯儲局本周議息,市場憂慮若聯儲局主席伯南克在會後記者會上,未能紓緩退市憂慮,恒生指數有可能會跌穿2萬點關。不過,「新興市場之父」麥博士接受本報訪問時表示,傳統上新興市場股市較波動,特別是A股市場,由於不少新興市場估值落後,長線投資者正好可利用市場波幅。

美國聯儲局退市陰霾「玩轉」全球整個金融市場,當中新興市場股市「最傷」。
新興市場估值落後

鄧普頓資產管理新興國家投資團隊執行主席麥博士認為,新興市場股市特別是內地股市,受投資者情緒等因素主導,傳統上較波動,然而長線投資者正可善用市場波幅,相信很多新興市場估值落後成熟市場,依然未反映強勁的增長前景。

儲局料補鑊 匯金出手 港股有望回穩

儲局料補鑊 匯金出手 港股有望回穩
2013年6月17日
【明報專訊】聯儲局「收水」疑雲有望本周釋慮,市場關注本港時間周四凌晨聯儲局主席伯南克於議息後記者會或為「收水」預期降溫,以安撫市場情緒。上周五在美國掛牌、3隻分別追蹤新興市場、中國及港股的ETF顯示資金已暫停撤資,加上匯金出手增持中資金融股A股,港股本周有望先回穩。

上月22日伯南克暗示聯儲局未來數月可能減少買債,造成始料不及的後果,全球股、債市大受衝擊。

不過,經常提前獲得聯儲局消息而有「美聯儲通訊社」之稱的《華爾街日報》記者Jon Hilsenrath上周四(13日)發表文章表示,聯儲局本周二和周三議息,預計會採取行動,平復市場對退市的恐慌。

內地零售股 瑞銀大劈價

內地零售市道呆滯,瑞銀發報告「踩多腳」!瑞銀早前派員前赴北京及深圳,實地考察當地零售業,當中包括上市公司或私人品牌,結果印證該行對內地零售業低迷仍會持續多二至三年的看法,因此該行狠劈多隻百貨業相關股份目標價至「破底價」,包括再度大削「鞋王」百麗(01880)目標價20%,低至8元。

瑞銀報告形容,從宏觀層面看,內地市場的「無形之手」失效。該行指成熟市場每當商業項目回報下降,市場便似有「無形之手」迫使運營商減慢擴張計劃,直至需求恢復,但內地「無形之手」明顯失衡,尤其在一些已飽和區域更加明顯。

紅籌國企/窩輪:人保完成尋底 部署低吸

紅籌國企/窩輪:人保完成尋底 部署低吸
http://paper.wenweipo.com   [2013-06-17]    
張怡
 國企指數已一口氣連跌12個交易日,無疑令捧場客大表失望,不過在弱市下,部分板塊的個股已有喘穩的跡象,當中中資保險股消息面利好,不妨考慮優先留意。事實上,中國保監會日前表示,今年首季保險業償付能力和分類監管結果顯示,行業風險狀況持續改善,首次實現全部保險公司償付能力達標。

 據悉,絕大多數保險公司預測今年二季度末償付能力充足率將繼續維持充足II類水平。值得一提的是,充足II類公司,指償付能力充足率高於150%的保險公司,該類公司面臨的監管壓力相對較小。行業風險狀況改善,而作為龍頭股的中國人民保險(1339)上周四曾造出3.5元的上市以來低位,最後則以3.68元報收,而現價因離上市高位的4.96元,已有不俗的水位可走,故不妨部署作中長線收集。

曾淵滄專欄 17.06.13:市況差先有筍貨執

股市急速轉差,合和香港房地產上市已叫停,英達公路(6888)卻依然勇往直前,原因是這家企業的大股東施偉斌深信,他這家公司前途似錦。

施偉斌是地道的香港人,機械工程師出身,20年前在城大念運籌學碩士班,我是他的論文導師,是一位學業成績特優的學生,創業精神也很強,打了幾年工就出來創業,英達今日的成就是香港的光榮。一向以來,香港學生不喜歡念工程學,原因是香港工業北移,工程師得北上工作,施偉斌也一樣選擇北上工作、創業,畢竟,那是一個非常巨大的市場。

英達業務是公路維修,其自行研發的工程車,科技水平早已超越歐美,領先全球。2009年北京慶祝建國60周年的閱兵典禮主場地長安大街,就是由英達承包工程,香港工程師團隊能研發出如此高水平的公路維修工程車,的確是香港的驕傲。

Weekend Comment Jun 14: Hunting for value

IN A REPORT dated June 13, Citi Research points out that the STI is back to where it started in the beginning of the year after having lost some 10% in a month. Meanwhile, Singapore's 10-year government bond yields have risen to five-year average of 2.1%. While talk of the US Federal Reserve tapering its QE programme and a stronger US dollar are the main reasons for the rise in yields here, Citi’s economists have also raised GDP growth for Singapore to 2.3% from 2% previously.

Still, the market’s decline should not be blamed entirely on QE tapering. “Recent concerns about the current-account deficit in Indonesia have increased worries. Singapore’s economy is linked to Indonesia’s via exports, banking (trade finance, wealth management), property ownership, tourism as well as the medical tourism segment,” says Citi Research.

World Without Easy Money – Is It Necessarily Bad?

14 JUNE 2013
World Without Easy Money – Is It Necessarily Bad?
By Daxx Chong

Talk of the Federal Reserve switching off the liquidity tap has been sending shivers through the global stock markets as it is hard to imagine a world without easy money – one that is seemingly here to stay since it was introduced in 2008. So, why the sudden change now? Here, we examine the aftermath of the US economy after several rounds of stimulus and how turning off the tap may be in fact, not necessarily bad if the economy is indeed recovering.

In the aftermath of the 2008 Great Financial Crisis, where US national debt was already at an unsustainably high level that made good old-fashioned Keynesian pump priming all but impossible, Fed chairman Ben Bernanke waved his magic wand once and again to unleash the might of quantitative easing (QE) in hope to ignite an economic recovery.

SingTel: Treading Through Economic And Regulatory Challenges

14 JUNE 2013
SingTel: Treading Through Economic And Regulatory Challenges
By Nicholas Tan

Volatile. That is the appropriate word to describe SingTel’s share price in recent weeks. The telco saw its share price hit a trading year high of $4.09 on 20 May, only to mark the beginning of a downward spiral to a low of $3.63 on 6 June, or a 12.7 percent fall in a span of two weeks. In this article, we attempt to try to understand what might have triggered this volatility.

The hour has probably arrived for the Federal Reserve to ponder on tapering off its monetary stimulus policy based on the recent statements from Ben Bernanke. Following this, a refreshed uncertainty has begun encircling the global economy and a flight to a defensive high dividend payout stock like Singapore Telecommunications (SingTel) seems to be a wise choice for any investor.

Gabriel Gan : Clear And Present Danger Threatens To Derail Bull Run

14 JUNE 2013
Clear And Present Danger Threatens To Derail Bull Run
By Gabriel Gan

It is the time that some investors have been waiting for – a correction, one that is long overdue. But funnily, some investors are too afraid to buy even though they have vowed to take the plunge once there is a 5 percent to 10 percent correction.

It is fear and greed at work yet again, as greedy investors want stocks to go cheaper so that they can buy at even lower prices while fearful investors dare not jump into the stock market for fear that the market may end up much lower.

From a high of 15,942 on 23 May, the Nikkei 225 dropped to as low as 12,548 within two weeks, rebounded to 13,584 before tumbling yet again to as low as 12,415 on 13 June. From the trading high to the lowest point, the index lost a total of 22 percent but from the close of 15,627 on 22 May to the close of 12,445 on 13 June, the Nikkei lost 20.3 percent and is now in bear market territory unless it manages to reclaim some losses in the near term.

End Of QE: How Will It Affect Our Stock Market?

14 JUNE 2013
End Of QE: How Will It Affect Our Stock Market?
By Ong Qiuying
While concerns of the tapering of quantitative easing (QE) by the Fed remains in the backdrop in the recent couple of weeks, markets have been turning bad news into good news; relating any poor data to more central bank assistance. However, with signs of an economic revival in the US, the “bad news” of the Fed ending stimulus measures could possibly come true in time.

Significantly, tapering off the QE measures would bring about the end of the low interest rate environment. When low interest rates become a thing of the past, increasing cost of capital would almost certainly hamper growth for many firms. So, delving into our local market, which are some of the sectors that would be affected?

Dr Chan Yan Chong’s Column 14.06.2013

14 JUNE 2013
Dr Chan Yan Chong’s Column
By Dr Chan Yan Chong

President Xi Jinping was presented with a chair made of Californian wood by President Obama after which both heads of state were photographed together by journalists signifying the equal status that both countries enjoy. In terms of the influence that both countries’ stock markets have on the global financial markets, there is definitely equality.

Stock markets in Hong Kong and Singapore are influenced by both China and US markets so much so that the Japanese market no longer have an influence on us. Even if the US market were to rise, Hong Kong and Singapore markets may not rise if the Chinese stock market were to open lower.

Sunday, June 16, 2013

曾渊沧:H股若能止跌则恒指回升


过去一周,港股一跌再跌,恒指连21000点也守不住,不过,昨日恒指在大跌的同时,也是出现一些曙光,本地地产股在早上裂口急跌之后就不断地上升,最后有数支地产股逆市上升,一些收息股也同样如此逆市上升,可见低位是有支持的。最终收市恒指依然大跌,可以说是H股大跌所致的,如果H股能够止跌,恒指就会回升。

目前的情况可以说是相当混乱,也可以说是告别发展,恒指成分股分两类,一类是H股,一类是本地企业,H股仍然受A股下跌的影响,本地企业股就应该算是找到了支持点。

Analysis: Fed Likely to Push Back on Market Expectations of Rate Increase

Analysis: Fed Likely to Push Back on Market Expectations of Rate Increase
By Jon Hilsenrath
Federal Reserve officials have been trying to convince investors for weeks not to overreact when the central bank starts pulling back on its $85 billion-per-month bond-buying program. An adjustment in the program won’t mean that it will end all at once, officials say, and even more importantly it won’t mean that the Fed is anywhere near raising short-term interest rates.

Investors aren’t listening.

A wide range of indicators suggest that investors are starting to think the Fed might start raising short-term interest rates — now near zero — sooner than previously thought. Until recently many market indicators suggested investors expected the first rate increases in mid-2015, but now these indicators indicate investors think it could be sooner.

財華估股─施俊威:短期恒指跌勢加深,6月底反彈


曾渊沧:全球股市对美退市预期反应过度

自从5月23日美国联储局主席伯南克率先在国会听证会上透露美国联储局有退市的可能后,联储局的多位官员就轮流出现,不停地谈论这件事。一时间,退市阴影笼罩全球,全球股市也因此而出现相当巨大的调整,其中以不足一年狂升近一倍的日本股市跌幅最惊人。

美国退市阴影更使得全球股市出现异常的反智现象。理论上,股价该反映经济的好坏,反映企业的利润,经济好,企业利润上升,经济差,企业利润会下跌,甚至亏损。但是,近两个星期全球股市的走势却恰恰相反,当美国经济数据好的时候,股市下跌;相反,当美国经济数据差时,股市上升。美国每天都有各种各样的经济数据会公布,时好时差,股市也随着这些经济数据的改变而改变。

Riding on Myanmar's growth via S'pore-listed companies


Interest rate decisions, capital outflows and market sell-offs in Asian economies.


Tiger Air cargo business


More volatility ahead in S'pore market despite rebound in STI: analysts


NTPM - Brighter Times Ahead

NTPM -
Price Target:0.69
Last Price:0.535
Brighter Times Ahead

We remain optimistic on NTPM’s outlook in view of the defensive nature of its business, favorable raw material prices and the company’s recent expansion  into  Vietnam.  Given  the  better  margins  and  sales  arising from the recent price hike for  NTPM’s products, we revisit  our numbers and nudge  up the stock’s  FV to RM0.69  while rolling over our valuation to 13x CY14 EPS.

Malaysian Airlines CEO on Strategy, Outlook



趣BLOG BLOG:買內銀股的悲哀! - 股榮

每年這段時間,股榮總會收到一張接一張、來自內銀股的股息支票,望住被阿爺老屈扣咗一成的股息、然後睇吓股價,再搵番一張張牆紙,再次提醒我,買內銀、輸死人。

開始集郵源於2005年,建設銀行(939)10月上市,挾住首隻來港招股的旗號,雖然「中國故事」未曾吹起,但心諗堂堂最大內銀,應該冇得輸,結果當然沒有令我失望,還後悔點解唔買多些。

輸錢皆因贏錢起,賭場如是,股市亦如是。建行是股榮目前賬面賺得最多的內銀,卻埋下往後墮入天仙局的陷阱。06年後包括工行(1398)、中行(3988),以至中型班的信行(998)及民行(1988)紛紛來港,本着有殺錯冇放過的心態,冀望食過翻尋味,殊不知到頭來,沒有最衰,只有更衰,一隻不如一隻,有的跌穿招股價、有的要掉轉頭科水供股。買齊九隻內銀的我,計計數,這些年認購IPO內銀,竟然白做一場。
Warren E. Buffett(沃伦•巴菲特)
Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful
别人贪婪时我恐惧, 别人恐惧时我贪婪
投资只需学好两门课: 一,是如何给企业估值,二,是如何看待股市波动
吉姆·罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)
“错过时机”胜于“搞错对象”:不会全军覆没!”
做自己熟悉的事,等到发现大好机会才投钱下去

乔治·索罗斯(George Soros)

“犯错误并没有什么好羞耻的,只有知错不改才是耻辱。”

如果操作过量,即使对市场判断正确,仍会一败涂地。

李驰(中国巴菲特)
高估期间, 卖对, 不卖也对, 买是错的。
低估期间, 买对, 不买也是对, 卖是错的。

Tan Teng Boo


There’s no such thing as defensive stocks.Every stock can be defensive depending on what price you pay for it and what value you get,
冷眼(冯时能)投资概念
“买股票就是买公司的股份,买股份就是与陌生人合股做生意”。
合股做生意,则公司股份的业绩高于一切,而股票的价值决定于盈利。
价值是本,价格是末,故公司比股市重要百倍。
曹仁超-香港股神/港股明灯
1.有智慧,不如趁势
2.止损不止盈
成功者所以成功,是因为不怕失败!失败者所以失败,是失败后不再尝试!
曾淵滄-散户明灯
每逢灾难就是机会,而是在灾难发生时贱价买股票,然后放在一边,耐性地等灾难结束
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