Saturday, May 25, 2013

曾淵滄教路 30.04.13: 急跌因大鱷炒作 搶金熱難撐金價

急跌因大鱷炒作 搶金熱難撐金價
最近,國際金價突然大跌,金價大跌之後,香港出現一個過去從沒發生的怪現象;所有的金舖人山人海,黃金首飾被搶購一空,不少金舖每天一開門之後,三小時內,一天所能供應的黃金首飾就賣光了。據報道,在如此人山人海的搶購之下,全香港的金舖庫存黃金已全部售清光,得趕快從海外入口。

投資界流行一句金句:「不買當頭跌」,投資界流行順勢而行,非逆市而行。但是,為甚麼香港的大小金舖會出現這麼一大群逆市買金的人?很有趣的是,這一大群人出現之後,國際大鱷竟然也退讓三分,國際金價也不再下跌,並出現小幅度的反彈。

《老謝看世界》特別節目專訪瑞信亞洲區首席經濟分析師陶冬



蔡森:黃金第二波空頭若啟動,下看770美元。

2013-0520-57金錢爆("金"嚇傻歐巴桑)4-2


Klang Valley a haven for UOA Dev

The Star Online > Business
Saturday May 25, 2013
Klang Valley a haven for UOA Dev

By JOHN LOH
johnloh@thestar.com.my

FOR niche developer UOA Group, flexibility is the key.

Unlike most property players, the company, whose local development arm was listed in 2011 as UOA Development Bhd (UOA Dev), does not keep to any rigid sales targets.

Yet it is no less competitive. The group posted record sales of RM1.71bil in 2012 and it is poised to top that with RM2bil this year. In its just-ended March quarter, UOA Dev raked in sales worth RM929mil, with unbilled sales standing at RM1.1bil.

Sarawak counters hogging the limelight


The Star Online > Business
Saturday May 25, 2013
Sarawak counters hogging the limelight

Below are some Sarawak companies listed on the Main Market of Bursa Malaysia that have caught investors’ attention

CAHYA MATA SARAWAK BHD

Cahya Mata Sarawak Bhd (CMSB), which is some 42.2% owned by the family of the Chief Minister of Sarawak, has always been seen as the main beneficiary and the best proxy to the many projects that will be taking off from the Sarawak Corridor of Renewable Energy (Score).

胡立阳: 股市“铁公鸡”的中国式分红



新股(IPO)上场:亚洲付费电视信托(Asian Pay Television Trust)


新股(IPO)上场:亚洲付费电视信托(Asian Pay Television Trust)

文:  (译:麦美莹) 
  • 2013年05月22日
  •  新股
    亚洲付费电视信托(Asian Pay Television Trust, 以下简称APTT)终于首次公开售股,招股价为0.97元(是0.92元至1.00元献售价的中位数)。你可以点击此处查看招股书。公开售股的截止日期是5月27日正午,并在5月29日下午2时开始交易。

    售股详情如下:配售股为8亿6,600万个单位; 公开售股为7,000万个单位。市值(基于招股价)大约为14亿元。

    一份新闻报告提到,这只股大约被3倍超额认购,由于这只股的规模很大,有这样的成绩相当不错。APTT总共发行9亿3,616万4,086个单位(每单位为0.97元),而如果它实行超额配售的期权,总共发行的单位为10亿零800万4,086个单位。这是在亚洲上市的首个付费电视业务信托。坦白说,新加坡的业务信托制度应记一功,否则APTT也不能够在此上市,因为其他地方的规定是需要以盈利派作股息而不容许以现金流派作股息。因此,重资产(asset heavy)公司可以通过商业信托(还记得和记港口控股信托吗?)形式释放它们的资产。

    Noble Group: A Weak Quarter, But Better Days Ahead (OSK)


    Noble Group: A Weak Quarter, But Better Days Ahead
    (BUY, SGD1.12, and TP: SGD1.25)
    Noble reported weak 1Q13 core earnings that were down 56% y-o-y to USD60m. This came in below our expectations and had accounted for 11% of our full year estimates. Agri segment was the dampener and though we expect this segment to pick up in coming quarters, we are lowering FY13 earnings by 16%. Maintain BUY with lower TP of SGD1.25 (from SGD1.45 previously) based on 13.3x FY13 P/E.

    Agri segment in the red. Agri 1Q13 operating income from supply chain recorded losses of USD67m, the segment’s worst quarterly results (in terms of profitability) in the past six years. The weak performance was due to 1Q usually being the “low point of the seasonal cycle” for Noble’s agri segment as its assets are mostly located in South America. Within Grains and Oilseeds, improved crush performance in China was offset by the shortage of beans in Argentina.

    Neptune Orient Lines – Looking at the positives (OCBC)

    Neptune Orient Lines –
    Fair value S$1.38
    add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.00
    versus: Current price S$1.09

    Looking at the positives
    • Core operating loss for 1Q13
    • But recovery nonetheless
    • Encouraging signs ahead

    Neptune Orient Lines's (NOL) 1Q13 results disappointed with a larger-than-expected core operating loss. Nonetheless, the figures marked a vast improvement over the same period a year ago.

    Ivory Properties Group Berhad - Penang World City The Earnings Driver

    Ivory Properties Group Berhad -
    Price Target:0.92
    Last Price:0.77
    Penang World City The Earnings Driver

    We value Ivory at MYR0.92, based on 45% discount to RNAV. The stock is currently trading at 0.88x P/B. Ivory’s earnings are expected to pick up from FY14 onwards, largely driven by the successful preview of PWC in 1Q13. The first four blocks have received an encouraging booking rate of 70-80%. We are hopeful that the JV co could bring in reputable players to add value to PWC.

    Tambun Indah Land - And The Beat Goes On

    Tambun Indah Land -
    Price Target:1.55
    Last Price:1.39
    And The Beat Goes On

    TILB remains our top pick for small cap property developers. Fair value is raised to MYR1.55. Industrial activities were robust when we visited the Batu Kawan industrial area. Re-rating on real estate values is in the process, with a few developers being expected to enter the mainland in a big way. TILB will benefit the most given its cheap land cost. Higher selling prices will drive GDV and margin expansion.

    -  Burgeoning industrial activities on mainland. We were honoured to be hosted by Steve Neoh, the financial controller of Tambun Indah (TILB), to have a site visit around Pearl City and Batu Kawan industrial areas. Compared to our previous visit in Oct 2012, the new Honda plant is now up and running, with hundreds cars parking in front of the office. A few more plants have also been built. Meanwhile, construction works of the interchanges from the Penang Second Bridge (PSB) are still ongoing.

    Notion VTEC: Bottomed But Lacks Catalysts (MKE)


    Notion VTEC
    Hold (unchanged)
    Share price: MYR0.755
    Target price: MYR0.76 (unchanged)
    Bottomed But Lacks Catalysts

     Maintain HOLD. We came away feeling mixed from NVB’s analyst briefing last Friday: (i) earnings at its key HDD segment, will remain weak in the near-term; and (ii) though its venture into new segments (i.e. oil and gas, aerospace, tablets) may lift its FY9/14-15 earnings, execution risk is existent. We cut our EPS forecasts by 25%/10%/7% respectively for FY9/13-15 on lower margin assumptions. NVB remains a HOLD with unchanged TP of MYR0.76 as we roll forward our valuation to 2014 (unchanged 5.5x PER).

    Fajarbaru Builder - Light at the end of the tunnel?


    Fajarbaru Builder -
    Price Target:0.83
    Last Price:0.75
    Light at the end of the tunnel?

    Period     3Q13/9MFY13

    Actual vs. Expectations    9MFY13 net profit of RM2.9m came in below our expectation and accounted for only 58% of our full-year estimate of RM6.9m. The group saw lower than expected margins due to the previous delays in its construction projects.

    Dividends    No dividend was declared during this quarter as expected.

    Key Results Highlights     QoQ,  Fajar’s earnings improved tremendously by 114% from RM0.7m to RM1.6m on the back of revenue growth of 82% coupled with a lower effective tax rate of 1.3%. The higher revenue was due to its construction activities running on full swing i.e. LRT extension & depot works, Shaw Parade project. The low effective tax rate of  1.3% was due mainly to the utilisation of unabsorbed tax losses available.

    Well-planned land transport network can boost Greater KL area


    The Star Online > Business
    Saturday May 18, 2013
    Well-planned land transport network can boost Greater KL area

    By SHARIDAN M. ALI
    sharidan@thestar.com.my

    A SOUND and well-planned rail network inclusive of the upcoming Klang Valley Mass Rapid Transit (KVMRT) Line 2 will form the spinal cord of Kuala Lumpur's public transportation system that will not only improve the liveability of the Greater Kuala Lumpur (KL) dwellers, but more importantly support the sustainability of the city's future development.

    In recent years, the country's economy as well as construction industry have been largely buoyed by the massive multi-billion investment to improve the capital's public transport network.

    Will MRT Line 2 go on as planned?


    The Star Online > Business
    Saturday May 18, 2013
    Will MRT Line 2 go on as planned?

    By JAGDEV SINGH SIDHU
    jagdev@thestar.com.my

    TO most commuters in the Klang Valley, the sight of barricades and heavy machinery is common along the busy roads of the city.

    The inconvenience of squeezing roads and the resulting crawling rush hour traffic is the short-term price to pay for the country's most costly infrastructure project the Klang Valley My Rapid Transit (MRT) which is building the MRT line from Sungai Buloh that snakes its way through the city centre to Kajang.

    Giordano International : Solid Fundamentals Paving The Road To Recovery (UOBKH)


    Giordano International
    Share Price HK$7.78
    Target Price HK$9.00
    Solid Fundamentals Paving The Road To Recovery

    Giordano released its 1Q13 trading numbers and hosted an analyst meeting yesterday. A few takeaways: a) focus on quality growth over quantity to yield improving gross margin, b) inventory days already best among peers’ and remain highly important, and c) China to see recovery through aggressive targeted marketing and store expansion. Giordano remains our top sector pick. Maintain BUY. Target price: HK$9.00.

    What’s New
    • Consolidation of Middle Eastern operations drove revenue growth in 1Q13. Given the acquisition of its Middle Eastern operations in 4Q12, revenue contribution from this segment drove the 6% revenue growth in 1Q13 (revenue declined 1% yoy excluding Middle Eastern operations).

    Notion VTec : Toughening it out (DBSV)


    Notion VTec
    HOLD RM0.72
    KLCI : 1,766.72
    Price Target : 12-Month RM 0.80
    Toughening it out

    • 1HFY13 was below our estimate but above consensus’
    • Hit by soft market demand as well as changing dynamics in the HDD segment
    • We are cautiously optimistic of a better 2HFY13 but there is still downside ris
    • Maintain HOLD with RM0.80 TP

    Highlights
    Difficult operating conditions. 2QFY13 earnings tumbled 85% y-o-y to RM2.4m (+9% q-o-q vs 1QFY13 earnings ex- one-off losses) due to shrinking margins and revenues.

    中海油:現無供股計劃

    【本報訊】中海油(883)早前斥資1,170億元收購加拿大尼克森(Nexen),集團首席財務官鐘華表示,目前並無發新股或供股集資計劃,至於會否再發債集資,則視乎巿況而定。

    鐘華表示,本月初發行40億美元債券的市場反應理想,集團目前的負債比率仍處健康水平,未來會視乎市場情況,揀選融資渠道,但強調未有發新股或供股計劃。至於未來會否繼續有收購,董事長王宜林表示,「無放棄併購機會……(併購)公司一直要做好。」

    他維持訂下全年3.38億至3.48億桶的產量目標,但未有計及Nexen的貢獻。王宜林又指,母公司暫無計劃將液化天然氣(LNG)業務注入上市公司。至於旗下荔灣項目的進展,首席執行官李榮凡表示,項目可如期在年底投產,主要供應廣東地區。

    Friday, May 24, 2013

    槟城 购地战火

    槟城 购地战火
    Created 05/24/2013 - 13:52
    被喻为大马有史以来最激烈的第13届全国大选,终于在“五月五,选政府”的激情后尘埃落定。

    不过,槟城炽热的房地产市场却没有因此而安静下来,反而战火密布。

    业界认为,槟城房地产在全国大选后将迎来新一波上涨周期,同时爆发土地争夺战!

    内外抢滩僧多粥少 槟土地战升级

    过去2年,当商家因“大选来了”传言四起而纷纷退场抱持观望态度时,敏感的产业市场更尤如失去了动力。

    乘客量季节性走强 亚航盈利下半年回弹

    乘客量季节性走强 亚航盈利下半年回弹
    Created 05/24/2013 - 10:39
    (吉隆坡23日讯)首季净利虽按年滑落,但大致上仍符合市场预期,许多分析员更深信乘客量季节性走强将带动亚洲航空(AirAsia,5099,主板贸服股)下半年的盈利表现。

    安联投资研究分析员指出,扣除特殊项目,亚航现财年首季核心净利达1亿6040万令吉,占他和市场全年预测的18%。

    他视此业绩表现为大部分符合预期,因每年首季都是表现最弱的季度。

    “我们预计盈利会回弹,特别是受下半年强劲乘客流量带动。”

    Lower profit for Unico-Desa, hit by depressed CPO prices

    The Star Online > Business
    Friday May 24, 2013
    Lower profit for Unico-Desa, hit by depressed CPO prices

    PETALING JAYA: Unico-Desa Plantations Bhd posted a net profit of RM4.8mil for its fourth quarter ended March 31, 70% lower than RM15.9mil reported in the same period a year earlier mainly on depressed oil palm commodities price.

    Revenue for the period stood at RM38.2mil against RM59.4mil previously.

    It declared a final dividend of 2.5 sen per share, bringing total payout for the year to 14.1 sen.

    MISC turns around in Q1

    The Star Online > Business
    Friday May 24, 2013
    MISC turns around in Q1

    It posts RM300.4mil net profit versus net loss of RM469.8mil a year ago

    KUALA LUMPUR: MISC Bhd posted a net profit of RM300.4mil for the first quarter ended March 31 against a net loss of RM469.8mil a year ago due to lower operating costs.

    Group revenue for the quarter under review also saw an increase of 7.7% to RM2.4bil compared with RM2.2bil in the previous corresponding period.

    “The increase in group revenue was mainly due to higher revenue in heavy engineering from a higher number of projects, combined with the lease commencement of two floating storage units of a liquefied natural gas (LNG) regasification project in August 2012.

    UOA REIT bullish on assets

    The Star Online > Business
    Friday May 24, 2013
    UOA REIT bullish on assets

    It expects occupancy and rental rates to continue to grow organically

    KUALA LUMPUR: UOA Real Estate Investment Trust (UOA REIT) expects the occupancy and average rental rates for its six properties in the Klang Valley to continue to grow organically in the current financial year.

    Executive director Tee Kim Siong said the growth would be driven by the properties' strategic locations and excellent facilities.

    “We are confident of sustaining and improving the current occupancy rate,” he told a briefing after the company's first AGM.

    TDM to expand plantation and hospital ops

    The Star Online > Business
    Friday May 24, 2013
    TDM to expand plantation and hospital ops

    PETALING JAYA: TDM Bhd is aiming to increase its plantation size by nearly 30,000ha to 70,000ha and also triple its hospital operations by 2018.

    The group said in a statement that it aimed for planted oil palm land to total 70,000ha from the current planted area of 40,518ha.

    “As our land in Terengganu is fully planted, Kalimantan is the next growth area to drive the group’s plantation business.

    台湾股神胡立阳:下半年可能美股重挫A股上冲

    台湾股神胡立阳:下半年可能美股重挫A股上冲
    2013年05月23日 16:16  新浪财

     新浪财经讯 5月23日消息,亚太股市今日集体大跌,日本股市日经225指数收跌7%,截止14:30港股恒指跌幅超2%。有台湾股神之称的胡立阳对新浪财经表示,美股和美国国债下半年可能出现因为QE(量化宽松)结束的过山车及重挫,相反A股可能往上冲,跟美股形成跷跷板。

      胡立阳称,今日亚太股市大跌表明全世界资本市场的神经都被美股牵着走。美股一个月来一路涨涨不休,像过山车一样往上爬,当越来越高时迟早要下来。而美股上下的原因就是量化宽松,市场对此心惊胆战。最近总听到消息称QE随时会结束。因此下半年美股将会像过山车一样吓人,真正的起伏将出现。

    聯儲退市開始倒數

    美國聯儲局主席伯南克周三出席國會聯合經濟委員會聽證會,提到過早收緊貨幣政策恐危害復甦,但在議員質問下,透露在經濟可持續增長的前提下,可能在未來數次會議縮減買債規模,其後公布的上次議息會議紀錄更顯示,部分官員準備好最快下月會議開始減少買債,令市場對當局持續放水的預期急轉彎。

    伯南克前言不對後語玩轉道指


    UNI-ASIA HOLDINGS: Ship Charter Income Set To Rise

    UNI-ASIA HOLDINGS: Ship Charter Income Set To Rise

    Written by Leong Chan Teik
    Thursday, 23 May 2013 12:32


    charter5.13Red bars denote periods of charter for the respective vessel. Yellow bars denote charter period which expired in 1Q this year but has been extended by the charterer, STX Pan Ocean, by another 4 quarters. Source: Uni-Asia Holdings.

    UNI-ASIA HOLDINGS (previously Uni-Asia Finance Corporation) looks set to reap rising profit from chartering its ships in the quarters ahead.

    Mapletree Industrial Trust: dbAccess Asia Conference 2013 (DB)


    Mapletree Industrial Trust
    Price at 21 May 2013 (SGD) 1.56
    Price target - 12mth (SGD) 1.63
    52-week range (SGD) 1.60 - 1.13
    dbAccess Asia Conference 2013

    Deutsche Bank hosted Mapletree Industrial Trust’s management at our dbAccess Asia Conference 2013. Discussions focused on the growth outlook and sustainability of its yield, back filling of vacated space and the impact of rising labour costs on tenants.

    Management highlighted that it expects rents to be stable near term with longer-term pressure from increasing supply. Ongoing AEIs and build-to-suit projects are progressing well and will drive incremental DPU growth. With the domestic landscape for acquisitions challenging, MINT stated that it is open to offshore opportunities from end-year particularly in markets where the Sponsor has an existing presence (China, Japan, and Vietnam), but remaining Singapore-centric. Management noted that it will pursue opportunities which will boost not only yield, but also quality and will look to boost the resilience of its returns.

    Mudajaya : Down but not out (CIMB)

    Mudajaya Group
    Current RM2.80
    Target RM3.25
    Down but not out

     Mudajaya's annualised 1Q13 core net profit made up 80% of our full year forecast and 75% of consensus. The performance was broadly in line due to seasonality. The decline in construction should reverse strongly in 2H13, but the delay in the Indian IPP remains inevitable.

    We revise down our DCF value of the Indian IPP by 4% to reflect the IPP delays. The dent to RNAV is partially offset by the updating of balance sheet items. Our target price is trimmed but still pegged to a 40% RNAV discount. Maintain Outperform given positive domestic prospects. Mudajaya remains our top pick within the smaller-cap space. Near-term catalysts are the progress of the Indian IPP and job wins.

    WCT : All three pillars fire up in 1Q (CIMB)


    WCT Bhd
    Current RM2.64
    Target RM3.11
    All three pillars fire up in 1Q

     Stronger future quarters meant that WCT's 1Q13 results were in line even though annualised 1Q core earnings made up only 90% of our full-year forecast (98% of consensus). Property was the star.

    We raise our target price as we update the balance sheet items while keeping our valuation basis of 30% discount to RNAV. WCT’s order flow prospects are anchored by RM1.5bn worth of potential wins. We reiterate our Outperform rating as newsflow on contracts is likely to spark further re-rating in 2H13 while new recurring income and property ventures should add new dimensions to its earnings theme.

    QL Resources: Recovering Livestock Margins (MKE)


    QL Resources
    Buy (unchanged)
    Share price: MYR3.36
    Target price: MYR4.00 (from MYR3.50)
    Recovering Livestock Margins,

    FY3/13 within expectations. QL’s FY3/13 results came in within our expectations but below consensus. Core net profit of MYR132m (+0.4% YoY) made up 98% and 94% of our and consensus full-year forecasts. We are more positive on FY3/14 and FY3/15 as the marine division gains momentum from Indonesia’s expansion, coupled with margin recovery in the livestock division. Reiterate Buy on QL with a higher DCF-based TP of MYR4.00, which equates to 20.6x FY3/14 PER.

    Star Publications : Turning the page on elections (CIMB)


    Star Publications
    Current RM2.61
    Target RM2.92
    Turning the page on elections

     1Q13 core EPS fell 19.6% yoy as election uncertainties led to 4.1% revenue slippage because advertisers held back. Despite the drop, the results, at 14% of our FY13 forecast and 15% of consensus, were in line as future quarters should improve now that the elections are over.

    Star remains an Outperform but with a lower target price, based on 11.7x P/E or 25% below (from 0%) our target market P/E of 15.6x (from 13.5x) as we expect the media sector to grow less than the market because of a shift from print to digital. The 25% discount is in line with the Star's discount to the KLCI over the past three years. As expected, there was no DPS. The end of elections and stronger adex are catalysts.

    AirAsia : Unispiring JVs and Associates (MKE)


    AirAsia Berhad
    Hold (from Buy)
    Share price: MYR3.24
    Target price: MYR3.00 (unchanged)
    Unispiring JVs and Associates

     Uninspiring. AirAsia’s 1Q13 was mixed, the core airline businesses in Malaysia, Thailand and Indonesia performed largely to expectations but all the JVs and associates disappointed. Overall, 1Q13’s core net income of MYR153.4m (+2.9% YoY) makes up 18% of our full year forecast, and 17% of consensus. We maintain our earnings forecasts and MYR3.00/share target price based on 9.2x 2013 adjusted EV/EBITDAR – in line with global peers. The stock is however downgraded to a HOLD (from BUY) as it is slightly above our fair value.

    IOI Corporation : An uplift from downstream (CIMB)


    IOI Corporation
    Current RM5.35
    Target RM5.56
    An uplift from downstream

     IOI Corp’s 9MFY6/13 core net profit, which makes up 81% of our full-year numbers and 78% of consensus’ were marginally above our forecasts but broadly in line with consensus. The better-than-expected manufacturing earnings helped boost 3Q core net profit (up 19% yoy).

    But, 9MFY13 core net profit fell 11% as lower CPO selling prices wiped out the impact of better manufacturing profits and higher production. We have raised FY13-15 EPS by 1-3% to reflect higher manufacturing earnings and FFB production. The earnings revisions lead to a 1% rise in our SOP-based target price. We maintain Neutral and see share price support from the demerger exercise and the current share buyback programme.

    Tiger Airways : Recovery In Singapore But Associates Could Still Drag Earnings (UOBKH)

    Tiger Airways
    Share Price S$0.66
    Target Price S$0.61
    Recovery In Singapore But Associates Could Still Drag Earnings

    We have assumed a blue skies scenario of improved yields and lower unit costs for the Singapore operations, which should boost earnings especially as Australian operations will be equity accounted as associates. Still, the lack of a coherent strategy for regional expansion is likely to cap upside. Maintain SELL with a lower target price of S$0.61.

    曾淵滄專欄 24.05.13:炒家散水 推冧日股

    曾淵滄專欄:炒家散水 推冧日股
    日股從去年9月份開始上升,在短短不足九個月的時間內,日經指數上升近一倍,升勢驚人。但昨日竟一日之內急跌7%,可以說是一場股災,情況有如2011年3月11日大地震後的股災,也中斷了日圓貶值、日股只升不跌的神話。

    日股狂跌的原因只有一個,那就是過去九個月升得太離譜。股市一升再升,股價一定會升至人們不敢再買的水平,泡沫最終就爆破。

    日股狂跌的同時,日本國債孳息率也狂升,即國債遭到拋售,意味價格急跌,這也導至日圓滙率走強。

    全球爆小股災

    【收水陰霾】

    美國聯儲局主席伯南克周三出席國會聽證會時,提及可能在未來數次會議縮減買債,引發市場對儲局提早退市的憂慮升溫,加上中國製造業表現突然走樣,連同日本10年期國債孳息突然抽上1厘的重要心理關口,觸發今年表現神勇的日股單日暴瀉逾7%,創兩年最大跌市,導致全球股市爆發小股災。

    亞洲、歐洲股市齊冧;及至美股昨晚開市之後,市場對退市的憂慮仍未完結,道指延續周三的跌勢,最多曾下跌126點。

    Thursday, May 23, 2013

    首季業績失色拖累 迪聯回吐漲幅挫45仙

    報導:謝錦彬

     (吉隆坡23日訊)受本財年首季淨利下滑拖累,迪聯(DELEUM,5132,主要板貿易)回吐前幾日的漲幅,一度勁挫45仙或12.43%至3.17令吉,淪為十大下跌股之一。

     迪聯昨日宣布本財年截至3月底業績,淨利走低,以致該股開市先跌13仙,以3.49令吉迎市,隨后持續下陷,一度勁挫45仙,報3.18令吉。

     休市時,該股報3.22令吉,跌40仙,半日易手159萬股。

     截至下午4時,迪聯報3.18令吉,跌44仙,成交量報203萬8600股,跌進十大下跌股榜首。

    挑戰層出不窮‧亞航展望審慎

    挑戰層出不窮‧亞航展望審慎
    Created 05/23/2013 - 17:35
    (吉隆坡23日訊)亞洲航空(AIRASIA,5099,主板貿服組)表面上不把馬印航空(Malindo)等對手放在眼裡,卻暗中犧牲運載率加強輔助收入,由於未來挑戰層出不窮,分析員多維持審慎看法。

    亞航首季營業額提昇11.33%至13億零78萬4千令吉,淨利猛挫39.23%到1億零479萬3千令吉。

    MIDF研究指出,亞航加快擴增機隊規模,拖低了運載率,造成首季盈利表現不如預期,考慮到運載率降低,分別將2013和2014財政年盈利預測調低8.7%和4.4%。

    持開放態度‧UOA產託或增持產業

    持開放態度‧UOA產託或增持產業
    Created 05/23/2013 - 17:27
    (吉隆坡23日訊)UOA產業信托(UOAREIT,5110,主板產業投資信托組)對併購更產業投資組合仍持開放態度,不排除會有任何增持產業的可能。

    該公司執行董事戴錦祥今日在股東大會後表示:“我們尋求任何機會,只有有關產業是有潛力,又符合我們的發展策略,公司都會予以考慮。"

    不過,他補充,目前並沒在進行任何實際的併購談判,所以將會繼續專注於經營巴生河流域現有的產業,以期提供租戶更有素質的服務。

    傳Borsig上市‧科恩馬一度漲11%

    傳Borsig上市‧科恩馬一度漲11%
    Created 05/23/2013 - 11:21
    (吉隆坡22日訊)科恩馬集團(KNM,7164,主板工業產品組)今日引起市場關注,價量齊升,股價盤中一度揚升10.68%,創下近6個月的高位,市場普遍臆測是受德國子公司Borsig上市在望消息帶動。

    科恩馬股價一度揚升5.5仙或10.68%至57仙,惟受套利干擾,以55仙高位掛收,起3.5仙或6.8%,共有9億9千860萬8千股易手,為全場第三大熱門股。

    科恩馬投資關係員受詢時指股價受追捧,相信是因為市場對油氣股購興大增,而且德國子公司Borsig在新加坡的潛在上市案也有望落實。

    大选因素引发负面印象 星报出版小股东忧股价跌


    大选因素引发负面印象 星报出版小股东忧股价跌
    Created 05/23/2013 - 10:00
    (八打灵再也22日讯)星报出版(Star,6084,主板贸服股)小股东担忧,由大选因素而引发的负面印象,会拖累公司股价表现。

    许多在今日出席星报出版股东常年大会的小股东,场外向记者传达他们的担忧。

    这些不愿具名的小股东表示,在今年举办的第13届全国大选期间,星报出版旗下的报章和电台等媒体业务,都被不少人贴上“报导与广告出现偏颇”的标签。

    曙光资本联手谢氏兄弟 沙综合发展净销售值18亿


    曙光资本联手谢氏兄弟 沙综合发展净销售值18亿
    Created 05/23/2013 - 10:04
    (吉隆坡21日讯)曙光资本(Suria,6521,主板贸服股)与谢氏兄弟机构(SBCCorp,5207,主板产业股)达成联营协议,以将沙巴亚庇土地进行综合发展,净销售价值(NSV)至少为18亿令吉。

    文告指出,曙光资本必须提供该发展土地给谢氏兄弟机构,并获分配净销售价值的18%份额,谢氏兄弟机构则为82%,该工程暂时命名为Jesselton Waterfront计划。

    至于谢氏兄弟机构则必须在2020年1月1日前将整个工程推出,在扣除土地价值后,该工程总发展价值预计为11亿令吉,并应由谢氏兄弟机构承担。

    大选风险消除合约陆续颁发 建筑业进入振奋期


    大选风险消除合约陆续颁发 建筑业进入振奋期
    Created 05/23/2013 - 10:47
    (吉隆坡22日讯)随着大选高风险已散去,分析员看好建筑领域工程合约,将在下半年陆续颁发,进而上调该领域评级至“增持”。

    根据大马统计局日前公布数据,今年首季建筑领域总建筑工程价值按季滑落5.4%,至209亿令吉,但按年表现却增长18.4%。

    其中,有38%为土木工程、32%为非住宅建筑物、25.8%为住宅建筑物,而剩余的4.2%为特别贸易。

    另一方面,建筑领域在国内生产总值(GDP)占14.7%,低于去年同期的14%。

    高盛點指兵兵16股


    高盛點指兵兵16股
    http://paper.wenweipo.com   [2013-05-23]

     香港文匯報訊 (記者 周紹基) 高盛昨發表中資股策略報告,指市場對城鎮化有4大誤解,以為內地將會大興土木,但事實上在重質不重量的原則下,消費板塊才是最受惠的。該行認為「新城鎮化」不再只是依賴固定資產投資,得益更多的是社會安全網,例如保險及醫療等,因此可刺激消費領域,報告列出了16隻潛在受惠的港股。瑞銀昨日亦發表對中國經濟最新看法,該行下調今年中國GDP增速預測,但預計中央政府將保持穩定的宏觀及房地產政策,不會進一步放鬆,即不會減息或降準。

    Bumitama Agri : A Bargain Growth Stock (OSK)


    Bumitama Agri Initiation Coverage: A Bargain Growth Stock
    (BUY, SGD1.01, TP: SGD1.16)

    We initiate coverage on Bumitama Agri (BAL) with a Buy call and SGD1.16 TP. BAL is one of the few large scale plantation company in our coverage which we project will sustain its profitability this year despite the lower average CPO price, courtesy of its surging production and increasing percentage of prime mature areas.

    Prime age trees drive earnings. We estimate that as at end-2012, 55% of BAL’s trees were under the prime age category, compared with 50% at end-2011. As yield drag is lower for prime age trees compared with young mature ones, the company may see a surge in profitability, assuming prices remain unchanged. This is very positive for BAL’s profits as it will boost its earnings this year despite weaker prices.

    Singapore REITs: The burgeoning market (OCBC)

    In our latest assessment of the S-REITs sector, we continue to see familiar trends. REIT managers have generally maintained firm growth in their trusts’ rental income, on the back of contributions from past investments and improved operational performance. For 2013, we are maintaining our view that S-REITs are likely to continue to deliver firm performance. Nevertheless, the S-REIT index has been enjoying a good run-up, raking up 36.7% gain in 2012 and another 12.7% increase YTD. Given that the S-REITs are now trading at a 24% premium to book value on average, we feel that it is prudent to be selective on S-REITs. We continue to prefer S-REITs with good growth potential, strong financial position and compelling valuations. In this respect, we continue to pick CapitaCommercial Trust [BUY, S$1.80 FV], Fortune REIT [BUY, HK$8.64 FV] and Starhill Global REIT [BUY, S$1.05 FV] as our preferred BUYs. Reiterate our OVERWEIGHT view on the broader S-REITs sector.

    HI-P : Upgrade to BUY (Limtan)


    HI-P
    S$0.82-HIP SP
     Hi-P’s share price has been consolidating around the mid-80 cents level in the past 1 week despite the company’s consistent share buy back program
    .
     This is likely technical in nature as this level was the top of the shoulder formation when the stock broke below the the head and shoulder formation established in 2H 2012.

     Looking at the company’s persistent share buy back program (they have been buying back shares every day) since the company started 6 days ago, we believe that the stock will eventually break above this level and retest the $1 level.

    Technics Oil & Gas : Putting On The Asset Weight (OSK)

    Technics Oil & Gas
    Target Price: SGD0.64
    Price: SGD0.86
    Putting On The Asset Weight

     Technics (TGH) announced that it has been awarded its first leasing contract worth SGD3.6m for two gas compressor engine driven packages for a Malaysian client. While we understand that the margins are good, this is a definite shift towards an asset-ownership model that will tie up capital. Given the weak outlook in the core Technics businesses, we are maintaining our SELL call with a TP of SGD0.64.

    China COSCO : Selling off the family silver to stay afloat (CS)


    China COSCO Holdings
    Price (20 May 13 , HK$) 3.42
    TP (prev. TP HK$) 3.00 (3.00)
    Maintain UNDERPERFORM
    Selling off the family silver to stay afloat

    ● China COSCO announced it would sell its 21.8% stake in CIMC, a box manufacturer held by its 43.2% owned subsidiary COSCO Pacific. Although the disposal gain is expected to reduce the company’s loss by Rmb1.2 bn, COSCO’s lack of restructuring plan to turn around its shipping business is disappointing to us.

    ● The disposal is part of COSCO’s effort to achieve accounting profit in FY13 to avoid delisting from the Shanghai market. With Asia-EU container freight rates falling by 45% YTD, it is increasing likely that they will need to sell more assets in the second half.

    Cordlife Group: NON-COVERED COMPANY VISIT NOTE (SCB)


    Cordlife Group
    PRICE as of 15 May 2013 SGD 0.88
    NON-COVERED COMPANY VISIT NOTE

    Main themes discussed/Key points
     Market leadership: Cordlife Group (CLGL) is the largest cord blood bank in Singapore, with a 62% market share, and the second-largest operator in Hong Kong, with a 28% market share as of 2010.

     Technological leadership: CLGL was the first cord blood bank in Southeast Asia to be accredited by AABB (formerly the American Association of Blood Banks). It was the first, in Singapore, to release processed cord blood units for treatments of cerebral palsy in 2009 and neuroblastoma in 2010.

    Tiger Airways : Singapore delivered the goods (CIMB)


    Tiger Airways
    Current S$0.67
    Target S$0.66
    Singapore delivered the goods

     FY13 core net loss was S$45m, broadly in line with expectations at just 5% above our forecast. Tiger Singapore delivered another quarter of good profits, though these were diluted by continued losses in Australia, Indonesia and the Philippines.

    Nevertheless, we believe that at current share price, its risk/reward is now balanced, and we upgrade it to Neutral from Underperform. We raise our FY15 core EPS by 64% for a stronger Singapore base but lower FY14 by 56% on a slight delay to the completion of its partial disposal of Tiger Australia. We also upgrade our target price, now based on 11x CY14 P/E (13.5x previously), to be in line with the sector average.

    Neptune Orient Lines 1Q13: Gain From Sale Of Building Leads To An Expected Turnaround (UOBKH)


    Neptune Orient Lines
    Share Price S$1.09
    Target Price S$1.40
    1Q13: Gain From Sale Of Building Leads To An Expected Turnaround

    NOL reported a net profit of US$76m in 1Q13, turning around from a US$254m loss in 1Q12, thanks to a US$203m profit from the disposal of NOL Building. Looking forward, we see a highly visible earnings improvement due to higher 2013-14 TP contractual rates. Maintain BUY but we cut our target price to S$1.40

    Results
    • Neptune Orient Lines (NOL) reported revenue of US$2,371m (+4% yoy) in 1Q13. It turned around from a 1Q12 loss with a net profit of US$76m, thanks to a US$203m gain from the disposal of NOL Building. The core losses were quite close to CSCL’s and in line with our expectation.

    李澤楷染指電動車


    【本報訊】近年不斷進行收購的「小小超」李澤楷,又看中新「玩具」!李澤楷或夥拍內地最大汽車零件供應商萬向集團,及美國汽車製造商VL Automotive,收購陷入破產邊緣的美國電動車生產商Fisker。消息人士指,李澤楷至今尚未作出任何決定。

    記者:鄭柏齡

    消息人士向本報透露,就此宗收購,市場上有不同的傳聞,然而,李澤楷至今尚未作出任何決定。

    路透社昨報道,內地最大汽車零件供應商萬向集團,及由美國通用汽車前主管Bob Lutz成立的車企VL Automotive,正計劃收購Fisker部份股權。電盈(008)主席李澤楷及部份歐洲投資者,則打算買斷由美國能源部持有的Fisker股份。

    KNM share, warrant surge on subsidiary IPO


    Hot Stock KNM share, warrant surge on subsidiary IPO
    Business & Markets 2013
    Written by Kamarul Anwar of theedgemalaysia.com  
    Wednesday, 22 May 2013 15:47

    KUALA LUMPUR (May 22): KNM GROUP BHD [] shares and warrants surged as much as 11% and 28% respectively to become the most-actively traded entities across the bourse.

    This comes amid prospects of the process equipment manufacturer listing its subsidiary in Singapore and investors’ current interest in oil and gas (O&G) stocks.

    At 3:07pm, KNM shares gained four sen or 7.77% to  55.5 sen after trading as high as 57 sen. A total of 86.1 million shares changed hands.

    曙光SBC聯手 發展18億銷售值項目



     (吉隆坡22日訊)曙光資本(SURIA,6521,主要板貿易)與SBC機構(SBCCORP,5207,主要板建築)聯營發展淨銷售值18億令吉項目,前者將藉聯項目進軍房地產發展業,早盤停牌1小時,復牌后先起后跌。

     曙光資本開盤開市前報備暫停交易1小時,並在上午10時恢復交易,開市時走勢不錯,微揚3仙至1.93令吉,但后勁不繼,漲幅頻頻收窄,休市時揚1仙,掛1.91令吉;午盤該股開滑,閉市時跌1仙至1.89令吉,成交量135萬8900股。

     反觀SBC機構沒有宣布停牌,不過全日保持升勢,開市揚2仙至1.65令吉,休市時漲幅擴大至4仙,掛1.67令吉,閉市時回落至開市時的1.65令吉水平。

    曾淵滄專欄23.05.13:新股定價太闊難玩


    曾淵滄專欄:新股定價太闊難玩 - 曾淵滄

    昨日恒指收市下跌105點,但有多隻股票逆市上升,因此,只能說是個別發展,我長期持有的華潤創業(291)近一段日子反覆向下調整,昨日則出現強力反彈,而且有大手成交,希望是調整結束的徵象。

    銀河證券(6881)上市,我沒有申請,理由是定價的上下限差距太大,開始時下限是4.99元,上限是6.77元,上下限相差35%,若真以6.77元上限定價,以昨日收市價5.62元來計算,虧慘了。我真不明白新股上市,定價何以如此離譜?

    Wednesday, May 22, 2013

    曾渊沧:中央需要提振股市推动民间投资


    星期一至星期四,恒指跌两天然后回升两天,变化不大,但是个别板块已出现炒作,新能源股是其中之一。有人说新能源股炒作是因为股神巴菲特访华的效应,股神的爱股比亚迪(01211)股价急升,带动其他新能源股股价一起涨。也有人说是因为中国发改委副主任刘铁男下台,刘铁男也是前能源局局长,他任内扣压大量新能源的投资项目不批,市场期望他下台后这些项目能上马。

    新能源股仍有上升空间

    我估计新能源仍有水位可炒,但是新能源始终成本较高,竞争力弱,得靠国家补贴才能推行,因此炒作新能源股应该适合而止,预设止赚位。

    麥嘉華撈金 羅傑斯觀望


    麥嘉華撈金 羅傑斯觀望
    最近黃金和白銀大跌市,不少分析認為商品市場超級周期告終,但「商品大王」羅傑斯繼續強調商品牛市尚未到末日,貴金屬近期跌勢只屬調整,從供應層面來看,長遠下跌空間有限。「末日博士」麥嘉華表示,正在買入實金,將吼準金價進一步跌至每安士1,300美元時買入更多。

    美元轉強 金價曾倒插2%
    評級機構穆迪再度警告可能摘除美國Aaa評級,美元匯價一度受壓,支持金價周二曾重上1,400美元,及後隨美元轉強而打回原形,昨日美國早段報每安士1,359.75美元,跌34.05美元或2.44%。

    星辰建筑 明年财测上修

    星辰建筑 明年财测上修
    Created 05/22/2013 - 11:24
    目标价:83仙

    最新进展
    星辰建筑(Fajar,7047,主板建筑股)现财年第三季和首9个月成功转亏为盈,净利分别为155万4000令吉和290万8000令吉。

    由于建筑领域展望优越,管理层预见政府接下来会颁发更多基建工程,因而放眼于2013年底或2014年初累积填补7亿令吉订单。

    淡馬錫逾15億增持工行


    淡馬錫逾15億增持工行

    儘管著名沽空機構渾水研究(Muddy Waters)將矛頭指向內銀壞帳問題,更預期最終或會迫使中國政府注資,然而新加坡主權基金淡馬錫勇者無懼,按平均每股5.5元,增持工行(01398)2.8億股,涉資15.4億元,市場猜測應該是購自日前高盛沽售的工行持股。
    渾水踩內銀壞帳惡化

    周一港股收市後,高盛突然按每股5.47至5.5元,沽售其持有餘下工行H股,昨日港交所(00388)披露權益資料顯示,淡馬錫於場內增持2.8億股工行H股股份,持股數目由58.27億股,增加至61.07億股,持股量由6.71%增至7.04%。

    美元强劲对全球经济是好是坏?

    美元强劲对全球经济是好是坏?
    文: Kathy Lien (译:杨佳文) 2013年05月21日 展望
    若你在过去几个月都一直留意外汇市场的动向或曾翻阅财经报章,你应该知道美元正在上涨。自年初以来,美元指数(美元价值的交易加权指标)上升了将近6%。另外,美元兑日元上涨了超过15%,兑英镑和澳元则上涨了超过6%。美元强劲令欧元也退跌,尽管其兑美元的跌幅仅为2.5%,远不及日元、英镑和澳元。美元持续上涨,使新元兑美元汇率下跌至9个月来的最低水平。

    美国股票和美国国库债券收益率持续攀高,使美元对既想要保本又想获利的海外投资者而言极具吸引力。美元持续上涨是因为美国联邦储备局目前采取的货币政策与其他中央银行不同—联储局的下一步应该是减少其购买的资产,缩减其经济刺激措施的规模。相反的,欧洲中央银行和欧洲各国的决策者正在考虑进一步放宽银根。基于欧元区陷入衰退,澳洲的经济因受中国影响而放缓,投资者都在寻找更好的投资机会。

    Revival of abandoned RM1.4bil 79-storey Plaza Rakyat near Pudu bus terminal


    The Star Online > Business
    Tuesday May 21, 2013
    Revival of abandoned RM1.4bil 79-storey Plaza Rakyat near Pudu bus terminal

    By CHOONG EN HAN
    han@thestar.com.my

    PETALING JAYA: Interested parties can now submit their proposals for the rehabilitation of the long abandoned Plaza Rakyat project located along Jalan Pudu and beside the Pudu bus terminal in Kuala Lumpur.

    The receiver and manager of Plaza Rakyat Sdn Bhd, Adamprimus, has placed an advertisement in several publications calling for parties with proven track records in integrated property development and strong financial background to “express their interest” by submitting proposals for the project, which was abandoned in the aftermath of the Asian financial crisis of 1997/1998.

    Sheng Siong : Upgrade to BUY on lower costs (DBSV)


    Sheng Siong Group
    BUY S$0.655
    STI : 3,449.30
    Upgrade from HOLD
    Price Target : 12-Month S$ 0.76 (Prev S$ 0.72)
    Upgrade to BUY on lower costs

    • Expect more earnings upside from better operating costs and efficiencies
    • Raise earnings by 5.0%/3.5%
    • Price weakness presents opportunities to accumulate
    • Upgrade to BUY with higher TP of S$0.76

    Religare Health Trust : Look out for maiden distribution (DBSV)

    Religare Health Trust
    BUY S$0.985
    STI : 3,449.30
    Price Target : 12-Month S$ 1.06 (Prev S$ 0.97)
    Look out for maiden distribution

    • Expect maiden distribution of 8% annualised payout in FY13 results announcement on 21 May
    • Share price appreciation panning out as expected; still has 8.3% yield and upside to revised TP
    • Recent drop in Indian bond yields and stable INR positive for RHT
    • Maintain BUY, TP raised to S$1.06

    We are in a safety bubble! (CIMB)

    We are in a safety bubble!
    While the Singapore market scales new highs, like stockmarkets around the world, it is the yield stocks and the stocks with earnings predictability that have outperformed. The results season showed just why – earnings for cyclical sectors continue to see cuts.
     
    In contrast, earnings were upgraded for banks, telcos and REITs. When investors look for stocks today, they want yield and earnings visibility. We see no reason for this to change. Yes, we are in a “safety” bubble and it looks likely to inflate further. We maintain an Undeweight on the FSSTI, with de-rating catalyst being full valuations for Index stocks. Our end-CY13 bottom-up target is raised by 2% to 3,460.

    Container rates heading to lows (CIMB)


     Container rates heading to lows
    The beleaguered Asia-North Europe trade is currently commanding only US$668/teu, just US$178 higher than the low in late-2011. With the next rate hike due only on 1 July, rates could retest the lows in June, and industry losses in 2Q and 3Q will likely be substantial.

     We stay Neutral on shipping overall, with Pacific Basin as our top pick as valuations are compelling and bulk rates should bottom this year. As the container shipping industry remains exceedingly tough, we recommend only OOIL and SITC as Outperforms as they have the lowest risks. History has proven that when rates reach distress levels, carriers will take action on capacity and drive strong (albeit temporary) rate restoration.

    S-REITs: Looming Spectre of the “End of QE” (MKE)


    S-REITs
    Looming Spectre of the “End of QE”
    1QCY13 results mostly in-line. In this yields-chasing environment, many S-REITs’ share prices have hit all-time highs, and investors are particularly sensitive to underlying performance, so as not to be affected by earnings surprises. Except for A-REIT and CDLHT, which saw QoQ DPU dropped more than 5%, the majority of S-REITs lived up to expectations. A-REIT was primarily affected by a SGD6.9m performance fee charge, while CDLHT was dragged down by a softness in hotel demand due to the absence of the bi-annual Singapore Airshow as well as the CNY falling later in February this year.

    MIIF : Realise TBC at a premium (NRA)


    Macquarie International Infrastructure Fund Ltd
    Current Price S$0.191
    Fair Value S$0.180
    Realise TBC at a premium

    Recommend that MIIF shareholder retain APPT units for attractive forward yield of 7.5% (FY13F) and 8.5% (FY14F). As part of divestment plan, MIIF will divest its 47.5% stake in Taiwan Broadband Communications (TBC) through Asian Pay Television Trust (APTT) in an initial public offering on the Singapore Exchange.

    KS Energy: Recovery will take time (OCBC)


    KS Energy:
    Fair value S$0.50
    add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.00
    versus: Current price S$0.45

    Recovery will take time
    • S$1.1m net profit in 1Q13
    • Titan 2 disposed
    • Maintain HOLD

    KS Energy (KSE) reported a 27.6% YoY rise in revenue to S$153.4m and a net profit of S$1.1m in 1Q13, vs a net loss of S$315k in 1Q12. Though the group’s operating profit went into the red again after four previous quarters in the black, we understand that operating profit would have been about S$8.3m had it not been for a one-off foreign exchange loss from the Titan 2 disposal.

    Yongnam Holdings : 1Q13 results in line (S&P)


    Yongnam Holdings
    Price: SGD0.33
    Date: May 16, 2013

    Results Review
    1Q13 results in line. Yongnam’s 1Q13 recurring net profit of SGD11.1 mln (excluding gains from sale of assets) made up 22% of our full year projection.

    Structural steel revenue surges YoY. 1Q13 revenue improved 22% given a surge in structural steel sales (+91% YoY), as major projects such as the Singapore Sports Hub and Suntec City Convention Center contributed to the strong growth.

    Noble Group :Agriculture losses a surprise (CIMB)

    Noble Group
    Current S$1.12
    Target S$1.14
    Agriculture losses a surprise

     Although we were bracing for a seasonally quiet quarter, Noble’s 1Q13 earnings disappointed as a perfect storm sent the agriculture segment into losses. Gestation costs for its expansion into new metal products weighed further on margins.

    1Q13 profit met just 9% of our FY13 forecast and 10% of consensus. We cut our FY13-15 EPS by 16%-25% for slimmer margins, lowering our target price to S$1.14 (10.1x CY14 P/E, 0.5 s.d. below its 5-year mean). Downgrade from Outperform to Neutral. We expect share price weakness, but the stock should find book value support at S$1.05.

    Neptune Orient Lines 1Q13: Gain From Sale Of Building Leads To An Expected Turnaround (UOBKH)


    Neptune Orient Lines
    Share Price S$1.09
    Target Price S$1.40
    1Q13: Gain From Sale Of Building Leads To An Expected Turnaround

    NOL reported a net profit of US$76m in 1Q13, turning around from a US$254m loss in 1Q12, thanks to a US$203m profit from the disposal of NOL Building. Looking forward, we see a highly visible earnings improvement due to higher 2013-14 TP contractual rates. Maintain BUY but we cut our target price to S$1.40.

    Results
    • Neptune Orient Lines (NOL) reported revenue of US$2,371m (+4% yoy) in 1Q13. It turned around from a 1Q12 loss with a net profit of US$76m, thanks to a US$203m gain from the disposal of NOL Building. The core losses were quite close to CSCL’s and in line with our expectation.

    大行報告:中遠洋出售交易正面



    中遠太平洋(01199)日前公布,悉售持有之21.8%中集集團(02039)股權予最終控股股東公司中遠集團,代價12億美元,並因此錄得4.9億美元稅前溢利。瑞信發表研究報告,認為是次出售交易屬正面消息,故大幅上調中遠洋今年稅後盈利84%,但同時下調一四年盈利預測28%,目標價由11元輕微上調至11.5元,並維持其「中性」評級。

    該行相信,今次交易的目的為中遠太平洋直屬母公司中國遠洋(01919)透過出售資產而達致今年扭虧為盈的計劃之一,雖然中遠洋將失去一項有盈利的資產,但其出售作價亦較中集現價有16%的溢價。

    Is Rotary Engineering On A Recovery Track?


    17 MAY 2013
    Is Rotary Engineering On A Recovery Track?
    By Nicholas Tan
    The year before was indeed a challenging one for Rotary Engineering, which was beset with troubles. Compared to its last peak at $1.29 in August 2009, the share has been on a downward trend and is currently hovering below $0.50. So how will the company perform for the year?

    Rotary Engineering, a leading downstream oil and gas infrastructure service provider, recently announced its first quarter result for the year on 8 May. As such, Shares Investment decided to take a peek into how has the company performed so far for the year after a poor 2012 performance. It raked in losses for FY12 due to challenges encountered at the end of the construction phase for the US$745 million Saudi Aramco Total Refining and Petrochemical Company (SATORP) project, which led to cost overrun issues and gross margin erosion.

    曾淵滄專欄22.05.13:細股起飛多靠賣殼

    曾淵滄專欄:細股起飛多靠賣殼 - 曾淵滄

    企展控股(1808)過去兩天股價飛升,其實每天都有三四線股突然飆起,我通常不會留意,只不過我極少量的持有這隻股。我一向會買一些我認為有機會變神仙股的股票,目的不是賺大錢,而是用來視察市場動態。我不是專業證券從業員,不可能天天盯着市,每天大量三四線股大起大落,無法分神關注。不過,如果手上持有的話,我就會稍加留意。

    一般來說,三四線股飛升都是因為賣殼,一賣殼就變成神仙股。近來,市場上多了賣殼的股,多了新股上市,說明市場的確是開始活躍了,炒家、莊家要入場尋找獵物。

    淡馬錫接2.8億股工行


    淡馬錫接2.8億股工行

    【本報訊】高盛悉售工商銀行(1398)股份,淡馬錫為其中一個接貨者。

    根據聯交所資料顯示,新加坡投資公司淡馬錫昨日以每股5.5元,增持2.8億股工行股份,與高盛昨日配售逾15億股工行作價一致,意味淡馬錫有份接貨,以高盛減持約15.6億股計,淡馬錫所佔比例近兩成;淡馬錫增持後,其於工行持股量達7.04%。

    工行在配股壓力下,昨日跑輸大市,但全日均能穩守配售價5.5元之上,表現尚算硬淨,收市報5.52元,跌2.1%。

    Tuesday, May 21, 2013

    馬股料至少再漲半年 中小股勢頭猛有進無退


    報導:謝錦彬

     (吉隆坡21日訊)馬股自大選后漲勢如虹,在投資者猶豫是否要待股市回落才進場之時,分析師大膽預測,此波漲勢將持續半年至1年,尤其中小型股將追回落后進度,料不再掉回頭。

     富馬隆綜指今日持續走高,十大上升及熱門股榜幾乎全由中小型股包辦。

     在十大上升股榜當中,中小型股佔極大部分,榜上有名的包括PLENITUDE(PLENITU,5075,主要板產業)最高漲22仙至2.45令吉;戴樂集團(DIALOG,7277,主要板貿易)最高報3.01令吉,漲21仙;游禮發產業(YNHPROP,3158,主要板房產)最高漲35仙至2.45令吉。

    资本管理措施奏效 双威产托负债成本最低

    资本管理措施奏效 双威产托负债成本最低
    Created 05/21/2013 - 11:12
    (吉隆坡20日讯)双威产托(Sunreit,5176,主板产业信托股)截至去年12月31日负债平均成本已降至3.73%,为全国产托中最低。

    双威产托管理私人有限公司在文告中表示,比起去年6月30日的4.65%,负债平均成本降至更低,归功于在2012财年所采取的资本管理措施。

    “该措施预计可使财年节省约1000万令吉的利息,进而允许单位持有者获得更多的收入分配。”

    Goldman Sachs to buy Keppel REIT stake for $279.9m


    Goldman Sachs to buy Keppel REIT stake for $279.9m
    WRITTEN BY BLOOMBERG  
    TUESDAY, 21 MAY 2013 09:57

    Goldman Sachs Group Inc. agreed to buy a 6.7% stake in Keppel REIT from a subsidiary of Keppel Corp., the world’s largest oil-rig maker, for $279.9 Million.

    Goldman Sachs will purchase 180 million units of the real estate investment trust for $1.555 per unit, according to a statement to the Singapore stock exchange today. The price represents a 3.5% discount to Keppel REIT’s closing price yesterday.

    郑水兴: 2015 年聚焦大吉隆坡 今年投资首选依区


    郑水兴: 2015 年聚焦大吉隆坡 今年投资首选依区
    Created 04/28/2013 - 09:03
    (吉隆坡27日讯)Swhengtee国际有限公司创办人郑水兴指出,今年投资者首选依斯干达特区,但在2015年会转回吉隆坡。

    “因此,吉隆坡在2015年后将成为全球投资热点,犹如现在的依斯干达特区般。”

    他说,在吉隆坡城中城、吉隆坡中环、独立广场、武吉免登城中购物圈和新街场空军基地重建等完成后,吉隆坡会成为世界级城市。

    產業重估賺5680萬‧IOI第三季淨賺5.68億


    產業重估賺5680萬‧IOI第三季淨賺5.68億
    Created 05/21/2013 - 17:24

    (吉隆坡21日訊)IOI集團(IOICORP,1961,主板種植組)在截至今年3月31日止,第三季淨利微漲2.9%,由5億5千200萬令吉升至5億6千780萬令吉,首9個月淨利則受惠於外匯賺益而強勢上揚22.7%,達17億零300萬令吉。

    該公司第三季營業額下滑10.6%,至31億9千910萬令吉,首9個月營業額則報101億6千320萬令吉,低14.5%。

    丹斯里李深靜領導的IOI集團在初步報告中說,單季來看,製造與房產業務表現改善,提振第三季盈利,惟外匯賺益和種植業務貢獻雙雙走低,減少這些正面效應。

    CAPITACOMMERCIAL TRUST : Rising to the occasion


    CLOSE SGD1.69
    Target price (SGD) 1.97.
    Rising to the occasion

    INITIATION
    Initiate coverage at BUY with TP of SGD1.97
    We like CCT’s strong portfolio mix of 10 commercial assets (including a 40% stake in CapitGreen) in Singapore, supported by a firm office outlook and a strong balance sheet. Expiring rents for CCT’s portfolio are lower than spot rents, and there could be opportunity for further positive rental reversions, especially if office market conditions turn firmer in 2013-15.

    CitySpring Infrastructure Trust : Benign Fuel Costs Supports Earnings (S&P)


    CitySpring Infrastructure Trust
    Price: SGD0.48
    Date: 16 May 2013
     Benign Fuel Costs Supports Earnings
    • Contained costs boosts profit. Even though gas input costs may have crept higher in 4QFY13 to dampen City Gas contribution relative to prior quarters, CitySpring reported a far improved overall performance in FY13 on higher gas tariffs and well contained costs. Full year net profit surpassed our expectation while cash earnings after minority interest of SGD95.1 mln was 9.9% lower than we estimated. The deviation to our forecast 4QFY13 profit was mainly due to Basslink’s derivative gain of AUD2.1 mln while cash earnings fell short of our 4QFY13 estimate on City Gas’ higher fuel costs.

    VARD: Outlook Robust Despite Mild Letdown In 1Q13 (OSK)


    VARD: Outlook Robust Despite Mild Letdown In 1Q13
    (BUY, SGD1.06, and TP: SGD1.69)
    VARD’s 1Q13 earnings of NOK188m (-30% y-o-y) were slightly below expectations as margins narrowed. Revenue growth was largely flat (-2% y-o-y) but EBITDA margin shrank to 11.1% (vs 14% in 1Q12, 11.4% in 4Q12). Management is confident of winning more orders given the company’s robust outlook. We cut our FY13F EPS by 7% but maintain our BUY rating, at a lower TP of SGD1.69, due to its undemanding 7.6x FY13F P/E and robust order outlook.

    Results a letdown due to weaker margins. VARD’s 1Q13 NOK188m (-30% y-o-y, +52% q-o-q) earnings were at 23% and 21% of our and consensus estimates respectively. Its EBITDA margin was weaker at 11.1% (vs our previous 12.6%), mainly due to delays and high costs in Brazil. We cut our FY13F EPS by 7% to reflect operational challenges in Brazil and lower utilisation in Vietnam. Its five Brazilian vessels will mostly be completed in FY13, with some spillover to FY14.

    Banyan Tree : Still looking bright (DBSV)

    Banyan Tree
    BUY S$0.65
    STI : 3,441.53
    Price Target : 12-Month S$ 0.83
    Still looking bright

    • Strong start to 2013 with a earnings rising 19% to S$14m
    • Forward bookings for hotels improving while new property launches in Phuket are selling like hot cakes
    • REIT a viable option given asset heavy balance sheet
    • BUY, TP S$0.83 based on SOTP

    Highlights
    1Q13 results a strong start. Banyan Tree Holdings (BTH) has started the year well, reporting earnings of S$14.2m (+19 y-o-y) on the back of a 17% increase in topline to S$96.9m.

    Yongnam : Earnings on track (DBSV)


    Yongnam
    HOLD S$0.33
    STI : 3,441.53
    Price Target : 12-Month S$ 0.33 (Prev S$ 0.25)
    Earnings on track

    • 1Q13 earnings slightly below but on track to meet full year expectations
    • Bidding for Myanmar airport projects
    • Expect back end loaded earnings as Thomson Line commences construction in 2H13
    • Maintain HOLD, S$0.33 TP

    Highlights
    1Q13 slightly below, but on track to meet estimates. 1Q13 earnings came in at S$11.5m, slightly below expectations (20% of full year forecast) while revenue was in line at S$82m.

    Biosensors International: More Acquisitions on the Way (MKE)


    Biosensors International
    Hold (unchanged)
    Share price: SGD1.225
    Target price: SGD1.28 (unchanged)
    More Acquisitions on the Way

    The first of more acquisitions to come. Biosensors is acquiring substantially all the assets of Spectrum Dynamics (SD) for cash consideration of USD51.13m (plus further payments based on undisclosed performance benchmarks), which translates into 7x P/B based on the book value of the assets of USD7.3m as at Mar 2013. This marks the first of more acquisitions to come as Biosensors seeks to expand its product offerings. No significant earnings contribution is expected from SD for FY3/14F although Biosensors cites the potential for ‘moderately accretive’ earnings contribution in FY3/15F. Maintain Hold and SOTP-based TP of SGD1.28.

    Midas Holdings : Focus on high speed rail contract ahead (CIMB)


    Midas Holdings
    Current S$0.45
    Target S$0.70
    Focus on high speed rail contract ahead

     Midas reported yet another quarter of disappointing results due to the lack of major contracts on its orderbook. We expect momentum to pick up in 2H13 with the dishing out of new HSR contracts as MOR commits to meeting its Rmb650bn fixed asset investment target for 2013.

    1Q13 disappointed, with a reported net loss of Rmb4.9mn vs. our FY13 forecast of Rmb40.63mn due to the lack of major contracts on its orderbook. This is in line as we are confident that Midas will clinch major HSR contracts in 2H13, which will make up for the losses this quarter. We keep our FY13-15 EPS intact and leave our target price of $0.70 unchanged, still based on 1.29x CY13 P/BV. Maintain Outperform.

    Noble Group : Agriculture losses a surprise (DBSV)


    Noble Group
    HOLD S$1.12 STI : 3,432.76
    (Downgrade from BUY)
    Price Target : 12-Month S$ 1.00 (Prev S$ 1.45)
    Agriculture losses a surprise

    • 1Q13 below as agriculture segment swung into the red
    • Division was hammered by idled Argentina soybean plants, logistic congestion in Brazil and weak sugar prices
    • Expect sequential improvement in the absence of one-off negatives
    • Downgrade to HOLD with TP cut to S$1.00

    Thai Beverage : Alcohol payback (CIMB)

    Thai Beverage
    Current S$0.66
    Target S$0.75
    Alcohol payback

     Earnings headline miss was due to lower associates from F&N paying a breakup fee in 1Q. The alcohol business suffered from temporary de-stocking by wholesalers. Non-alcoholic beverage synergies are starting to appear as this business prepares to dominate the region.

    1Q was below at 17% of our estimates and 16% of consensus. We adjust our FY13-15 estimates by -6/3 % on lower gross margins and slightly higher associate earnings. Our SOP target price falls slightly. We maintain our Outperform call. Catalysts to come from corporate restructuring.

    Neptune Orient Lines : No cause for comfort (CIMB)


    Neptune Orient Lines
    Current S$1.09
    Target S$1.10
    No cause for comfort

     NOL’s 1Q13 core net loss of US$117m was half of last year’s but, at 78% of our full-year loss forecast, was below expectations due to lower-than-projected rates. Worsening spot market conditions mean that our full-year loss estimate will have to be raised significantly.

    We are doubling the 2013 core loss forecast from US$150m to US$296m by lowering our 2013 average rate assumption by 5%, partly offset by a 3% lower unit cost estimate as bunker prices decline. This lowers our target price slightly, still based on CY13 P/BV of 1.1x (2011 historical average). We maintain Underperform, with the weak industry outlook this year the key de-rating catalyst.

    Star Publications - Enhancing non-print segment


    Star Publications
    Price Target:3.10
    Last Price:2.62
    Enhancing non-print segment

    - We re-affirm our BUY recommendation on Star Publications, with an unchanged fair value of RM3.10/share based on a 10% discount to our DCF valuation.

    - 1QFY13F appeared to be challenging for Star as adex declined by 5% compared with the same quarter last year due to weak market sentiments. However, with the conclusion of the 13th GE, we expect a marginal improvement in adex in 2HFY13F.

    - We understand advertisers are gradually moving back to colour ads from the cheaper black and white ads.

    曾淵滄專欄21.05.13:現階段追貨唔算遲


    曾淵滄專欄:現階段追貨唔算遲 - 曾淵滄

    還記得5月初我轉述4月29日《人民日報》兩篇談論股市的文章嗎?那兩篇文章的暗示是明顯的,皆認為中國股市應該見底。文章發表後,滬綜指的確反覆上升,由2200點樓下回升至昨日一度突破2300點,如果你相信文章暗示,現在追入應該仍未遲。你可以買A股ETF如安碩A50(2823),可以買國壽(2628),也可以買盈富基金(2800)。過去一段時間,恒指表現遠落後於美股,原因就是受A股拖累,如果A股回升,恒指也會更上一層樓。

    恒指中也有強弱之分,強勢股依然強,不斷創新高,騰訊(700)第一次破300元大關,很多年前,我的愛股也曾破300元關,可惜後來一拆三,就再也見不到了。

    Monday, May 20, 2013

    Hang Seng to Top 50,000 by 2015: Morgan Stanley



    ASEAN Markets: Buy Into Any Weakness



    麥嘉華(Marc Faber)筆記:通街泡沫 焗住揀黃金


    麥嘉華筆記:通街泡沫 焗住揀黃金 - 麥嘉華

    我的一些客戶有時會問,既然黃金不是百分百安全的資金避風港,我為何依然對黃金不離不棄。我這樣回答,在根本上已破產的西方民主世界,其實沒有一樣資產是完全穩陣的。

    當我們分析不同的資產市場及個人投資機會時,一般會以價值高低作依歸。如今,西方國家的投資者還要考慮多一個問題,就是哪一類型資產會令你要多繳財富稅(Wealth Tax)?

    美股明顯超買 升勢難持久
    我承認先前未有好好考慮到這一點,但乍看之下,財富稅主要針對的正是金融資產。假如一國的政府向農戶徵收相當於其資產淨值20%的稅款,這一定會對經濟造成重大影響。因為農戶到時勢必將賣掉他們部份的農地。相反地,政府如果是向銀行存戶、債券持有人和股票持有人徵收財富稅,經濟所承受的壓力相對會較輕,尤其是當中央銀行不斷增加其購買資產的額度。

    大選至今漲18%‧大型計劃開跑‧鋼鐵股短期保溫


    大選至今漲18%‧大型計劃開跑‧鋼鐵股短期保溫
    Created 05/20/2013 - 17:59
    (吉隆坡20日訊)本地鋼鐵股近期表現超越富時綜指,大選結束至今平均上漲18.3%,惟興業研究認為鋼鐵股估值仍保持在2008年次貸風暴時水平,預料在重量級發展計劃重新開跑和改善競爭力政策出爐帶動下,鋼鐵股短期內可望保持“妖艷",繼續鎖住投資者交易熱情。

    興業研究指出,在需求提昇帶動下,鋼鐵業財政表現可望在今年好轉,惟盈利能見度仍然模糊,本益比估值暫時無法反映鋼鐵業者的有型資產價值,不如用股價對賬面值(P/B)估值法來得貼切。

    估值仍保持在2008風暴水平

    產業指數飆34%‧70%股項無動靜‧中小產業股成遺珠


    產業指數飆34%‧70%股項無動靜‧中小產業股成遺珠
    Created 05/20/2013 - 17:45
    (吉隆坡20日訊)富時產業指數年初迄今大唱豐收,飆升34%,惟卻有多達70%的產業股被“打入冷宮",繼續在每股賬面值以下“低泣",在選後產業計劃料接踵而來下,這些中小型產業“遺珠股"或絕地反攻。

    同時,依斯干達發展主題掀起的產業股重估潮或有望延伸至檳城產業股,隨檳州民聯保住政權後將如火如荼落實計劃,檳城產業發展可能成為下一個伺機待發的投資主題。

    大馬產業股過去12個月漲幅驚人,高達47%,但不少產業股仍慘遭“冷藏",高達70%的產業股以低於每股賬面值交易,當中更有多達46%的產業股,股價淨值比低過0.7倍。

    股海宝藏:依华建台落后大市建筑股


    股海宝藏:依华建台落后大市建筑股
    Created 05/20/2013 - 15:17
    依华建台(Sendai,5205,主板建筑股)在现有的建筑股涨潮中表现落后同侪。

    在全国大选之后,建筑股指数从2013至今已经飙涨18.4%,较富时隆综指的4.7%更佳。

    建筑股之所以有这么好的表现,主要是受到三大因素的推动:1.政府将恢复之前在经济转型计划和第十大马计划下的工程,这使建筑公司可争取到更多合约2.由于订单合约继续增加,使得建筑公司中的盈利增长更佳3.随着全国大选出现对建筑商有利的成绩,他们不必再对前景感到担忧。因此,建筑领域的估值已经回到公司的基本面

    Deleum picking up interest as potential value play


    Deleum picking up interest as potential value play
    Business & Markets 2013

    Written by Shalini Kumar of theedgemalaysia.com  
    Monday, 20 May 2013 08:48

    KUALA LUMPUR: Oil and gas services provider DELEUM BHD [] could be a potential value play, says Kenanga Research, adding that the company would benefit from drilling, production and brownfield rejuvenation works.

    Deleum managing director Nan Yusri Nan Rahimy recently said he anticipates the group adding another RM2 billion worth of contracts to its existing order book of RM1.4 billion, adding that most would be domestic projects.

    Sunway REIT lowers cost of debt


    Sunway REIT lowers cost of debt
    Business & Markets 2013

    Written by Afiq Isa of theedgemalaysia.com  
    Monday, 20 May 2013 08:53

    KUALA LUMPUR: Sunway Real Estate Investment Trust (Sunway REIT) has reduced its average cost of debt to 3.73% as at Dec 31, 2012, from 4.65% as at June 30, 2011, making it the lowest among all REITs in Malaysia.

    Sunway REIT Management Sdn Bhd, the manager of the REIT, said in a statement the lower cost of debt is the result of the capital management initiatives it had undertaken during its financial year ended June 30, 2012 (FY12).

    Fortune REIT: 1Q13 exceeds expectations (OCBC)


    Fortune REIT:
    Fair value HK$8.64
    add: 12m dividend forecast HK$0.37
    versus: Current price HK$7.83

    1Q13 exceeds expectations
    • Rental reversion of 19.5%
    • Robust growth through AEIs
    • Maintain BUY

    Fortune REIT reported excellent results for 1Q13. Revenue and net property income climbed 16.3% YoY and 17.6% YoY to HK$301.4m and HK$217.9m respectively. Occupancy rose to 98.6%, the highest level in over two years, with good portfolio-wide operational statistics and a fast recovery after AEI. Average passing rents grew by 10.0% YoY to a new high of HK$32.9 sq ft.

    Vard 1Q13 below expectations on lower margin; positive on the order outlook (CS)


    Vard Holdings Ltd
    Price (14 May 13 , S$) 1.06
    TP (prev. TP S$) 1.10 (1.50)
    Maintain NEUTRAL
    1Q13 below expectations on lower margin; positive on the order outlook

    ● 1Q13 EBITDA of NKr304 mn represents 21% of the consensus FY13 forecast, as margin declined to 11.1% in 1Q13, below the consensus estimate of 12.1% in FY13.

    ● Management attributed the decline in margin to delays in its yard in Niteroi, Brazil. Key challenges the company faced include high cost level and staff turnover, as well as bottlenecks in the subcontracting market. While operations are expected to stabilise by end-2013, margins are likely to be impacted through to 2014. We forecast EBITDA margin of 10.5% in 2013 and 10.0% in 2014.

    Biosensors : More about Spectrum Dynamics deal; buy on the low valuation (CS)

    Biosensors International Group Ltd.
    Maintain OUTPERFORM
    Price (14 May 13 , S$) 1.23
    TP (prev. TP S$) 1.96 (1.96)
    More about Spectrum Dynamics deal; buy on the low valuation

    ● We checked with Biosensors’ management about the background of the acquired assets of Spectrum Dynamics (SD). SD’s branded D-SPECT system is expected to revolutionise the diagnostic imaging market, a field that has been void of major gamma camera developments over the past two decades.

    ● Biosensors will enhance its sales force for D-SPECT and potentially expand the manufacturing capacity. Biosensors and SD also are setting up a joint venture to apply D-SPECT technical know-how on oncology diagnostics.

    ParkwayLife REIT: DPU Continues To Grow (OSK)


    ParkwayLife REIT: DPU Continues To Grow
     (NEUTRAL, SGD2.74, and  TP: SGD2.84)

    PREIT achieved DPU of 2.64 cents (+2.9% y-o-y) in 1Q13, accounting for 24.7% of our forecast, due to full quarter contribution from properties it had acquired a year ago. 1Q12 results had a one-off tax adjustment, excluding which, 1Q13 DPU would have risen 7.0% y-o-y.

    We continue to like PREIT for stable DPU growth and defensiveness. However, its prospects and resilience are likely priced in.

    Maintain NEUTRAL, TP SGD2.84. We are keeping our DPU estimates for FY13F. Its unique lease structure ensures that DPU growth would be sustainable, even if there is no addition to its portfolio. This offers investors with stable growth. Any new yield accretive acquisition would be a driver for DPU growth.

    China Minzhong Food : Hanging on for dividends (CIMB)


    China Minzhong Food
    Current S$1.03
    Target S$1.11
    Hanging on for dividends

     Earnings disappointed in Minzhong’s traditionally strongest quarte ras the processed segment faces weak demand. The tie-up with Indofood looks timely as it could pick up the slack. We avoid a downgrade only because of the strong possibility of dividends.

    3Q was below expectations, forming 31% of our full-year estimate and 32% of consensus. 9M13 came in at just 72%. We cut our FY13-15 estimates by 11%, which lowers our target price, still based on 4x CY14 P/E (sector average). We keep our Outperform call only because dividends are likely to catalyse the stock.

    Wilmar: Decent 1Q13 showing (OCBC)


    Wilmar:
    Fair value S$3.90
    add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.06
    versus: Current price S$3.38

    Decent 1Q13 showing
    • 1Q earnings met 24% of FY13
    • Some challenges remain
    • Longer term prospects are decent

    Wilmar International Limited (WIL) posted a pretty decent start to the year, with revenue of US$10.2b and core earnings of US$313.7m meeting 20.5% and 23.6% of our full-year forecast, respectively. Going forward, management remains confident that WIL will be able to overcome the difficult environment expected for the rest of 2013.

    Midas Holdings : Earnings should rebound in 2H (DBSV)


    Midas Holdings
    BUY S$0.45
    STI : 3,432.76
    Price Target : 12-Month S$ 0.60
    Earnings should rebound in 2H

    • Small loss in 1Q of Rmb 4.9m vs. profit of Rmb 15.2m last year due to lack of contract wins in the last 18 months
    • Expect a turnaround in 2H13 as the group’s order book has now grown to c. Rmb700m from just Rmb400m in Jan
    • Magnitude of turnaround Midas would depend on timing of the high speed rail contracts
    • Maintain BUY with S$0.60 TP based on 1.2x P/BV

    Neptune Orient Lines : No smooth sailing yet (DBSV)


    Neptune Orient Lines
    HOLD S$1.09
    STI : 3,432.76
    Downgrade from BUY
    Price Target : 12-month S$ 1.19 (Prev S$ 1.45)
    No smooth sailing yet

    • Core loss of US$121m exceeds expectations
    • Rate increases hard to push through as liners fail to maintain capacity discipline
    • Recovery timeframe pushed back; normalized returns look unlikely for NOL before FY15
    • Cut to HOLD with lower TP of S$1.19

    Thai Beverage : 1Q down but not out (DBSV)

    Thai Beverage
    BUY S$0.66
    STI : 3,432.76
    Price Target : 12-Month S$ 0.80
    1Q down but not out

    • 1Q13’s net profit fall was within expectations
    • Net profit drop impacted by net loss from FNN’s operating results
    • Spirits volume recovering from higher inventory carried by trade; sequential improvement expected
    • Maintain BUY, TP: S$0.80

    Golden Agri-Resources: Upgrade to BUY on valuation ground (OCBC)


    Golden Agri-Resources:
    Fair value S$0.63
    add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.010
    versus: Current price S$0.53

     Upgrade to BUY on valuation ground
    • Results within expectations
    • Big drop in inventory
    • Upgrade to BUY

    Golden Agri-Resources (GAR) posted 1Q13 revenue of US$1430.1m, weighed down by lower CPO prices; but still managed to meet 22% of our full-year forecast. We estimate that core earnings came in at around US$113m, down 30% YoY but up 176% QoQ, and also met 23% of our FY13 forecast.

    曾淵滄專欄20.05.2013:滙控回購好處多多


    曾淵滄專欄:滙控回購好處多多 - 曾淵滄

    自從政府加強一手樓盤的銷售管制後,一手樓市一片死寂,地產代理窮則思變,努力推銷外地樓盤,包括中國各大小城市、英國、加拿大、馬來西亞等地的樓盤項目。近日推出市場的樓盤中,有一些來自中國一線城市,這倒是有點奇怪,我仍經常聽到中國一線城市有所謂的限購令,只限擁有該城市戶籍的人購買,為甚麼會有樓盤來香港銷售?難道是上有政策,下有對策?

    中國一線城市的樓價,壓來壓去都壓不下,但是,三四線城市許多樓房都賣不掉,因此,大家買內房股時,要留意這些內房企業的樓盤分佈在甚麼城市。

    Lum Chang results were below our expectations (S&P)


    Lum Chang Holdings
     Price: SGD0.35
    Date: May 15, 2013

    Results Review
    LCH reported a net profit of SGD11.9 mln (+5% YoY) for 9MFY13 (Jun.). The results were below our expectations, accounting for about 60% of our original full-year net profit forecast. Although the group reported better-than-expected revenue and stronger gross margin of 9.8% (FY13E:7.8%), this was offset by higher administration expenses and associate’s losses.

    內銀首季業績 早顯華東壞帳嚴重


    內銀首季業績 早顯華東壞帳嚴重
    2013年5月20日
    【明報專訊】今年初,內地5大銀行公布2012年業績時,均表示華東地區的壞帳急升(見表)。以上海為總部的交通銀行(3328),已加大貸款撥備力度,副行長錢文揮更指出,新增不良貸款主要來自江蘇及浙江兩省。金融海嘯後,溫州出現民企老闆「走路」潮,當地銀行的不良貸款率到3月底時創下4.01%的21個月以來新高。

    溫州民間資本投資服務中心主任李堅平表示,早前中央政府的4萬億刺激經濟措施,被人用於高利貸,令國家承受損失。當中房地產業涉及民間借貸嚴重。經歷幾年後,溫州政府已經安排企業有序破產,清理資產後再整改,通常債權人取得三分之一貸款價值。他難以估計現時溫州遺留多少民間借貸未處理,只能夠說情已受制約。

    Hektar REIT quietly carving a niche market


    The Star Online > Business
    Saturday May 18, 2013
    Hektar REIT quietly carving a niche market

    By CHOONG EN HAN
    han@thestar.com.my

    SAFE havens like real estate investment trusts (REITs) are always in demand during tumultous times, but let's face it, it will never be as sexy as growth and penny stocks. In fact, the instrument itself was never attractive but just stable until the emergence of mega REITs that dominated the local scene.

    One of these local REIT players, Hektar REIT has been silently but surely carving a niche for itself.

    诺申集团 股票回购扶持股价


    诺申集团 股票回购扶持股价
    Created 05/18/2013 - 11:18
    目标价:76仙

    最新进展

    诺申集团(Notion,0083)2013财年上半年,仅取得500万令吉核心净利,按年下滑73%,普遍低于预测。

    至于第二季,核心净利依然疲弱,仅得200万令吉,按年挫85%(按季增10%)。此外,第二季的营业额按季则微升4%。

    迪隆看好再获20亿新工程


    迪隆看好再获20亿新工程
    Created 05/18/2013 - 11:02
    (吉隆坡17日讯)迪隆(Deleum,5132,主板贸服股)放眼在今年内,再获得20亿令吉的新工程合约,目前在手的合约订单已达14亿令吉。

    迪隆董事经理纳尤斯里纳拉希米指出,这些潜在工程都与三大核心业务相关,分别为能源与机械,维护、维修及检修(MRO),以及油田服务。

    “大部分合约是国内工程,只有少数是来自印尼”。

    纳尤斯里纳拉希米是在昨天的常年股东大会上,发表上述谈话。

    Sunday, May 19, 2013

    Sell In May And Go Away: Keep Or Ditch?


     17 MAY 2013
    Sell In May And Go Away: Keep Or Ditch?
    By Louis Kent Lee and Choo Hao Xiang

    It is that time of the year again. The investment strategy of “sell in May and go away” has many pondering over the preciseness of the advice, in particular, for the next six months. Right now, the month of May has seen a bullish trend across the globe. Led by the groundbreaking US market, regional markets began the dreaded month with much vigor. The question then arises, should you sit tight or bail on your equity holdings?

    Market timing counts as one of the crucial factors in determining investment returns. Now, you will probably be thinking, “There’s no way I can fully master that!” But what if the seasonal pattern has already been pointed out? Would you still follow through?

    Dr Chan Yan Chong Column 17.05.2013


    17 MAY 2013
    Dr Chan Yan Chong Column
    By Dr Chan Yan Chong

    The Fed (Federal Reserve) reiterated its promise to maintain low interest rate for the foreseeable future and continued its pledge to buy US$85 billion worth of bonds at the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting on 1 May. At the same time, the Fed warned that US economic growth is showing signs of weakening, hence, there may be a need to either increase or reduce the amount of bond buyback.

    Although the Fed did warn that the amount of bond buyback may be reduced, but investors are aware that a weakening US economy can only lead to an increase in buyback and not the other way round.

    Midas Holdings: Adverse near-term conditions (OCBC)


    Midas Holdings:
    Fair value S$0.54
    add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.005
    versus: Current price S$0.475

    Adverse near-term conditions
    • 1Q13 net loss of CNY4.9m
    • High-speed train contracts critical to recovery
    • Lower FV but keep BUY rating

    Midas Holdings’ 1Q13 net loss attributable to shareholders of CNY4.9m (1Q12: PATMI of CNY15.3m) was larger than our forecast for a net loss of CNY3.2m. This was attributed largely to a wider-than-estimated share of loss of CNY4.0m from its associated company, NPRT.

    Yongnam : Positioning ahead of contract wins (MKE)

    Yongnam Holdings
    Buy (unchanged)
    Share price: SGD0.330
    Target price: SGD0.43 (from SGD0.45)
    Positioning ahead of contract wins

    Regional infrastructure play. We reiterate BUY on the company, which is shaping up to be a good proxy to benefit from the unprecedented infrastructure boom in this region. It is estimated that USD8t will be spent in Asia on infrastructure investment, to support the transition from export-based economies to domestic consumption. Yongnam has market leading positions in structural steel and strutting.

    Within expectation. 1Q13 results were largely within expectation. Revenue grew 22% yoy, with the ongoing execution of its orderbook. Though profit was flat yoy at SGD11.5m, this was in comparison to the same quarter last year which benefited from exceptionally high gross margins of 29%. This is only a matter of normalizing margins, and we are encouraged by the sequential improvement in gross margins, from 20.5% to 24% this quarter.

    Giordano International : Growth story is not in China (CIMB)


    Giordano International
    Current HK$7.78
    Target HK$9.00
    Growth story is not in China
     Overall sales in 1Q13 grew by 6% yoy including sales from the Middle East. Excluding this, sales were disappointing, mainly dragged down by poor performance in Taiwan and China. Nevertheless, we saw a sustainable gross margin expansion, thanks to the discipline in discounting, lower merchandise cost and ASP hike.

    1Q13 overall sales accounted for 23% of our FY13 forecast, lower than the usual split of ~25% of our full-year estimate. We cut EPS by 5% for FY13-15 to reflect a weaker sales recovery in China. We lower our target price, still based on 15x CY14 P/E, its 10-year average. We maintain an Outperform as there are strong growth prospects in the SEA region and the Middle East.

    Noble Group: Agri problems persist (MKE)


    Noble Group
    HOLD(from BUY)
    Share price: SGD1.115
    Target price: SGD1.17 (from SGD1.53)
    Agri problems persist

    Poor quarter, downgrade to HOLD. 1Q13 results were significantly below market expectations, as problems in its agricultural segment persist. We had earlier been positive on its new asset-lighter strategy and the benefits of that in terms of lower overhead cost and strong balance look intact. However, the poor earnings level and visibility will likely continue weighing on the stock. Downgrade to HOLD.

    Vard Holdings: Looking More Attractive (MKE)


    Vard Holdings
    Buy(unchanged)
    Share price: SGD1.06
    Target price: SGD1.65 (from SGD1.66)
    Looking More Attractive

    Premium OSV builder at deep discount. We like Vard for its leadership position in the premium OSV market. Recent sell-down is unwarranted and we believe that stronger-than-expected order wins this year would drive positive re-rating. We raise our FY13F order win forecast from NOK9.7b to NOK11.5b. At current valuations, despite our below-market FY13F forecast, the stock would be trading at only 7.2x PER. Maintain Buy with TP of SGD1.65.

    Fed放消息, 御用記者指稱Fed正在擬出寬鬆退場方案。美元轉強, 黃金再度大跌。



    Trading Tips in a Bull Market



    China's Economy Stabilising, Rate Cuts in Oz, Korea and Vietnam



    Golden Agri-Resources : Sales of inventory boost 1Q (CIMB)

    Golden Agri-Resources
    Current S$0.53
    Target S$0.56
    Sales of inventory boost 1Q

     Golden Agri’s 1Q13 core net profit was boosted by US$20m-25m gains from the sale of carryover stock and a better showing from its China agribusiness. These partially offset weaker CPO selling prices.

    1Q core net profit, at 31% of our full-year forecast and 23% of consensus, is broadly in line with our expectations as we expect lower CPO sales volumes and rising costs in the remaining quarters. Our net profit forecasts are intact but we shave our target price to S$0.56 (14x CY14 P/E, the historical average) to account for FD EPS dilution from a recent convertible bond issue. We maintain our Neutral rating.

    DBS CIO Lim Say Boon: Sweet Spots Amid Sour Data



    Monetary Easing Market Implications


    PhillipCapital Weekly Market Watch 08.05.2013-Perennial China Retail Trust,



    中天新聞》馬來西亞房產火熱 各國「炒房團」湧入



    曾淵滄博士-股市资讯专栏 17.05.2013

    曾渊沧博士专栏
    文: 曾渊沧博士 2013年05月17日 曾渊沧博士专栏
    美国联邦储备局5月1日议息会议后决定维持超低利率不变和每月购买850亿美元的国债及其他债券的决定不变。这是符合市场预期的。不过联储局在发出上述决定的声明中,也提到目前的经济复苏缓慢,有下滑的风险。因此,该局随时会增加或减少购买债券。声明虽说随时会增加或减少购买债券,但人人都知道,增加购买的机会比较大,因为美国经济有下滑的风险。

    美国经济为什么有下滑的风险?原因是美国政府的财政预算因民主党与共和党在国会里的党争,压抑了奥巴马总统的赤字开支。更因两党无法就政府总负债的最高水平达至协议,则年前制定的自动削债机制就开始运作。美股在自动削债机制开始生效之后不断上升创历史高位,因此全球经济界、金融界都认为去年伯南克把自动削赤的机制形容为财政悬崖是夸张了。不过,美国最新的一些经济数据的确显示经济有下滑风险。

    Gabriel Gan: Bull Run Still Intact; Economy Still Lackluster But No Corrections As Yet


    17 MAY 2013
    Bull Run Still Intact; Economy Still Lackluster But No Corrections As Yet
    By Gabriel Gan

    The same story gets played out day-in day-out for the past month or so, with no change in the script except for much better scenes being played out in the US. Despite some conflicting signs showing both good and bad news in the US economy, the US market – the entire broad market – surged to fresh highs.

    With the US Federal Reserve promising more and extended goodies – maintaining a low interest rate environment for the foreseeable future and promise of more money to buyback government bonds – there is no reason for American investors not to react. As usual, it is the same-old story of liquidity fuelling the rally and hot money flooding the markets because these funds need places to park in order to seek returns, hence, economies with stimulus measures i.e. US and Japan, are now the hot spots.

    IOI Corporation : Resuming Premium Valuation (UOBKH)


    IOI Corporation
    Share Price RM5.46
    Target Price RM6.35
    Resuming Premium Valuation

    We are positive on IOI Corporation demerging the property-related business leading to the listing of IOI Properties Group on Bursa Malaysia. IOIC shareholders are to get 27% yield from the distribution-in-specie of new IOIP shares at the ratio of 1:3 IOIC shares and non-renounceable ROS at up to 30% discount at the ratio of 1 IOIP share for every 6 IOIC shares. Maintain BUY. Higher target price of RM6.35 (from RM5.70).

    What’s New
    • IOI Corporation (IOIC) announced the demerger of its property arm under IOI Properties Group (IOP) with total assets valued at a market value of RM18.2b.

    黃金再度跌破1400整數關卡,中國大媽全數套牢?



    Warren E. Buffett(沃伦•巴菲特)
    Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful
    别人贪婪时我恐惧, 别人恐惧时我贪婪
    投资只需学好两门课: 一,是如何给企业估值,二,是如何看待股市波动
    吉姆·罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)
    “错过时机”胜于“搞错对象”:不会全军覆没!”
    做自己熟悉的事,等到发现大好机会才投钱下去

    乔治·索罗斯(George Soros)

    “犯错误并没有什么好羞耻的,只有知错不改才是耻辱。”

    如果操作过量,即使对市场判断正确,仍会一败涂地。

    李驰(中国巴菲特)
    高估期间, 卖对, 不卖也对, 买是错的。
    低估期间, 买对, 不买也是对, 卖是错的。

    Tan Teng Boo


    There’s no such thing as defensive stocks.Every stock can be defensive depending on what price you pay for it and what value you get,
    冷眼(冯时能)投资概念
    “买股票就是买公司的股份,买股份就是与陌生人合股做生意”。
    合股做生意,则公司股份的业绩高于一切,而股票的价值决定于盈利。
    价值是本,价格是末,故公司比股市重要百倍。
    曹仁超-香港股神/港股明灯
    1.有智慧,不如趁势
    2.止损不止盈
    成功者所以成功,是因为不怕失败!失败者所以失败,是失败后不再尝试!
    曾淵滄-散户明灯
    每逢灾难就是机会,而是在灾难发生时贱价买股票,然后放在一边,耐性地等灾难结束
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