Saturday, May 18, 2013

颜子伟: 牛市冲劲十足;经济仍缺乏生气,但调整并未出现


牛市冲劲十足;经济仍缺乏生气,但调整并未出现
文: 颜子伟 (译:麦美莹) 2013年05月17日 展望
在过去一个月,整体市场的变化不大,除了美国有时候会带来意外的惊喜。尽管一些相互抵触的信号显示美国经济传来好坏参半的消息,但美国整体市场不断创出新高。

随着美国联邦储备局答应给予更多更大的支持,包括在可预见的未来维持一个低息环境,并会利用更多资金来回购政府债券,因此美国投资者没有理由不进场。目前的情况就跟以往一样,流动资金推动市场攀升,而热钱不断流向市场,因为这些资金需要找一个可以取得回报的地方停放。结果是,推出刺激措施的经济体像美国及日本,成为了投资的热点。

五月沽货离场


五月沽货离场?
文: 朱皓翔 , 李廷伟 (译:杨佳文) 2013年05月17日 展望

随着5月份到来,许多投资者又会再度思考“五月沽货离场”这种说法是否准确,尤其是考虑到接下来6个月的表现。目前,全球股市在5月份的表现一片大好。美国股市在本月创下新高,本区域多个市场也冲劲十足。投资者不禁要问:我们应该继续持守还是卖出手头上的股票?

进出场的时机是决定投资回报的重要因素之一。你可能会说:“判断时机可不是一项我能完全掌握的技巧!”但如果股市会出现季节性的模式呢?你是否会根据这种模式进场和离场?

鉴于5月刚好迈入另一个周期,投资者可能会对“五月沽货离场(sell in May and go away)”策略感兴趣。这个理论主张投资者应该在5月至10月期间离场,因为股市在这段时期的表现将比11月至4月的表现差。

罗德里工程正逐渐复苏?


罗德里工程正逐渐复苏?
文: 陈挚文 (译:伍丽芳) 2013年05月17日 企业摘要

对困扰缠身的罗德里工程而言,去年的确是充满挑战的一年。其股价在2009年8月创下1.29元的高位后,便持续下跌,它目前正徘徊在低于0.50元的水平。公司在今年的表现将会如何呢?

罗德里工程(Rotary Engineering)是一家提供下游油气基建的领先服务商,它于2013年5月8日发布了其本财年的第一季业绩报告。由于其2012年的表现欠佳,《股市资讯》将来看看公司本年迄今的表现。公司于2012年蒙受全年亏损是因为价值7亿4,500万美元沙特阿美道达尔炼油及石化公司(SATORP)项目在建筑工程即将完工时遇到困难,使成本超支及毛利受损。

Midas: Tough Quarter, As Expected (OSK)


Midas: Tough Quarter, As Expected
(BUY, SGD0.45, and TP: SGD0.75)

Midas recorded a loss of RMB4.9m in 1Q13 (vs a profit of RMB15.3m a  year ago), as revenue slid 12.1% y-o-y to RMB202.4m, along with  higher operating expenses, finance cost and share of associate’s loss. Midas’s order book is expected to last till FY15, with deliveries likely from 2H13. Visibility on the speed of new contracts to be awarded in China remains low, despite the positive outlook for the railway industry in the region.

Weak 1Q was expected. Management had guided, in our earlier report, that 1H13 would be challenging, as the lingering effects of the slowdown in FY11 and FY12 continue to impact its operations. As orders start to pick up, utilisation would improve and 2H13 could be stronger. However, the visibility on how quickly the Chinese government will award high-speed rail contracts is still rather low. Should orders start to come in strongly, Midas has the capacity to ramp up production quickly.

Yongnam : A late bloomer (CIMB)


Yongnam
Current S$0.33
Target S$0.36
A late bloomer

 After four quarters of declining revenue and profitability, Yongnam’s return to growth in 1Q13 is a breath of fresh air. We think that its share price out performance YTD still has legs as the Myanmar project is Yongnam's to lose.

At 17% of our FY13 forecast, 1Q13 net profit was in line with our expectation as we stick to our assumption that 65% of this year’s earnings will only come through in 2H13. Our EPS estimates and target price (still at 6x CY14 P/E, its 3-year mean) are unchanged. We maintain an Outperform as the group is poised to land some mega accretive projects.

UOA Development: Robust 1Q new sales (CIMB)

UOA Development
Current RM2.55
Target RM2.76
Robust 1Q new sales

 UOA Dev's 1Q results were broadly in line with expectations as despite annualised net profit exceeding our forecast by 39% and consensus by 44%, future quarters should be weaker. Also, the group racked up an impressive RM929m in 1Q new sales.

We maintain our earnings forecasts and target basis of 10% discount to RNAV. But we raise our target price as we increase RNAV by 6% to RM3.06 after updating the balance sheet items. UOA Dev remains an Outperform due to its attractive valuations of 7-9x P/E and 5-6% net dividend yield. Cheap valuations and continued strong sales are key rerating catalysts.

Nam Cheong: 1Q net profit up 8% to RM35.8m (OCBC)

Nam Cheong
Fair value S$0.30
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.005
versus: Current price S$0.255

: 1Q net profit up 8% to RM35.8m
• Three vessels had undergone routine docking
• Vessel sales worth US$100m
• Expansion of shipbuilding programme

Nam Cheong Limited’s revenue and net profit increased by 14% and 8% YoY to RM234.7m and RM35.8m respectively. Gross margin declined to 18.6% from 22.6% in the year-ago period, mainly due to lower utilization of its vessel fleet. The group also had a disposal gain of RM2.8m, relating to one SSV. Separately, Nam Cheong announced the sale of five vessels worth US$110m, relating to one 5,150 bhp AHTS and four PSVs. The group, which already has an existing net order-book of RM1.3b, plans to expand its shipbuilding programme to 28 vessels for 2014 (2013: 19 vessels). We continue to like the group for its growth profile and keep our BUY rating and fair value estimate of S$0.30 unchanged.

FJ Benjamin: Expenses Drag PATMI; Breaks Into China Market (osk)

FJ Benjamin: Expenses Drag PATMI; Breaks Into China Market
(NEUTRAL, SGD0.26, and TP: SGD0.27)

PATMI was 88% lower y-o-y at SGD0.4m, even as revenue was flat (-3.4% y-o-y) at SGD92.6m, due to a SGD1.7m inventory obsolescence provision as FJB took a cautious approach amidst slower consumer sentiment and higher effective tax rate. In view of that, we lower our FY13F earnings to SGD5.8m. Outlook remains challenging, as consumer sentiment for luxury goods in its key markets is likely to remain weak.

Downgrade to NEUTRAL. We have lowered our FY13F earnings to SGD5.8m (from SGD9.6m), given the weaker-than-expected 3Q and challenging outlook for FJB. We have raised our effective tax rate assumptions, as management had indicated that some of its loss-making operations are in higher tax environments. As a result, FJB currently trades at a 27.6x our FY13F earnings, which is relatively expensive in our view. Hence, we downgrade to NEUTRAL, with TP of SGD0.27.

Giordano : Good margin, strong cash (DBSV)


Giordano
BUY HK$7.78
HSI : 22,930
Price Target : 12-Month HK$ 8.30
Good margin, strong cash

1Q sales remained weak in China and Taiwan, but margins improved across the board
Strong cash flow with inventory continued to improve
Still a BUY with TP unchanged at HK$8.30

Highlights
Sales remained sluggish. Overall 1Q13 sales rose 6% helped by additional sales from Middle East; stripping this out, sales would have slipped 1% y-o-y. SSS declined 2% dragged by China (down 7%) and Taiwan (down 14%) while other markets remained solid especially SE Asia where SSS rose 8%. During 1Q, the company reduced the store count by 24 POS, with most of the closures in China.

Noble Group 1Q13: Disappointing Results (UOBKH)

Noble Group
Share Price S$1.115
Target Price S$0.92
1Q13: Disappointing Results

Continued weak agriculture margins in 1Q13 led to a 62% yoy fall in net profit to S$41m. Maintain SELL and see consensus earnings downgrades as a catalyst. Cut target price to S$0.92 (previously SS$1.17).

Results
• Disappointing 1Q13. Noble Group’s (Noble) 1Q13 net profit of US$41.3m was substantially below our and consensus forecasts. Although group tonnage for the various segments was flat at 52.7m tonnes (-0.6% yoy), operating income from supply chain was dragged by a US$66.6m loss in its agriculture division. On a more positive note, the group executed well on its plans to manage finance and sales, administration and operating expenses (SAO) by cutting these two costs by 13% yoy and 19% yoy respectively.

Vard Holdings : Not as bad as feared (CIMB)

Vard Holdings
Current S$1.06
Target S$1.40
Not as bad as feared

 Akin to a Brazilian gold rush, Petrobras's bountiful requirements have attracted waves of profiteers. But in the end, it was the picks and shovels, and not the miners, who struck it rich. 1Q margins were crimped due to an overheated Brazilian suppliers’ market. However, the margin squeeze was not as bad as feared.

At 20% of our FY13 numbers, 1Q core earnings were 19% below our expectation and 13% below consensus due to lower-than-expected margins. We cut our FY13-15 EPS by 10-12% on lower margins. We upgrade the stock to Outperform from Trading Buy as recent share price weakness has priced in the worst. We also nudge up our target price, still based on 1 s.d. above its historical forward P/E mean (9x CY14). Catalysts could come from stronger margins and orders.

REDtone International - Record high profits in the making


REDtone International -
Price Target:0.56
Last Price:0.45
Record high profits in the making

With its recent team-up with Telekom Malaysia in wholesale Ethernet, the group is now capable of offering a complete customised and integrated data network technology solution to its customers in different industries. The group is also set to receive its first resource sharing fee from Maxis in May. The fee is expected to boost REDtone’s FY13 earnings significantly and reach our targeted net profit forecast of RM23.6m (~10 fold YoY) on a full-year basis. In addition, the group is also set to receive a sustainable recurring resource sharing fee under its NSA agreement with Maxis. Separately, management believes that the recent Sabah Sulu incident will not have any material earnings impact to the group. There are no changes to our REDtone’s FY13-FY14 earnings forecasts. We maintain our OUTPERFORM call on REDtone with an unchanged target price of RM0.56, based on a targeted FY13 PER of 11.0x.

Fraser & Neave : S$3.28 cash distribution (CIMB)


Fraser & Neave
Current S$8.88
Target S$10.03
S$3.28 cash distribution

 FNN’s 2Q13 saw 17% yoy core EPS growth, thanks to its F&B and property units. Many overseas development projects will be completed to underpin a stronger 2H13. FNN has also announced that it will return S$4.73bn in cash to shareholders via capital reduction.

2H13 core earnings formed --% of our and consensus’s full-year estimate. We deem this as in line given the stronger anticipated 2H. We maintain our core EPS estimates and SOP-based target price. Our pro forma RNAV estimate after the cash distributions is around S$7.75. At current levels, we estimate investors will be getting its property business at an implied discount to RNAV of 43%. Maintain Outperform.

Pantech - Firing On All Cylinders

Pantech -
Price Target:1.43
Last Price:1.01
Firing On All Cylinders
As Pantech’s share price has rallied strongly, we took the opportunity to take a relook at the company’s numbers. We continue to like Pantech’s profitable business segments and believe the company will continue to strengthen. Its projected dividend yield still remains attractive at 3.6%-4.0%. Maintain BUY, with our FV revised upward to MYR1.43, based on 13x FY14f EPS, assuming full conversion of its ICULS

¨      Company and stock price both performing well. Pantech reported strong results for FY13, chalking up net earnings of RM55.0m (+59.4% y-o-y). Meanwhile, its share price has been on a steady uptrend since we upgraded the stock to BUY in July 2012. Still, its share price has spiked up by some 13.7% in the last two trading days of last week to MYR0.915, taking the stock closer to our MYR1.00 FV. This has prompted us to take a relook at Pantech.

@ TECHNICS OIL & GAS' AGM: Shareholders Seek Clarity On New Growth Potential


SHAREHOLDERS OF Technics Oil & Gas enjoyed a 22% capital gain on their stock in the past year.

Add in 8 cents a share in dividends, and the total gain came up to 28%.

With that sort of return, and a record net profit achieved by the company in FY12 (ended Sept 2012), there was little for shareholders to grouse about at the AGM on Thursday (Jan 10), unlike at AGMs of some companies that I have

Instead, there was shareholder query about, and interest in, some recent key developments, especially:

美股评论:巴菲特教你五原则


美股评论:巴菲特教你五原则
2013年03月18日
导读:MarketWatch投资理财编辑、专栏作家波顿(Jonathan Burton)根据巴菲特致股东的信件总结出了五条值得投资者学习的原则,让大家知道该如何像巴菲特一样投资。

以下即波顿的评论文章全文

  对于大多数投资者而言,要学习像巴菲特一样投资,可比要学习像贝克汉姆一样踢球机会大多了。

  事实上,难度也低多了。巴菲特甚至还会亲自教你该怎么学。

新航腹背受敌,努力反击以提高增长


新航腹背受敌,努力反击以提高增长
文: 汤森路透 (译:伍丽芳) 2013年05月16日 汤森路透
由于受到海湾地区的航空公司及亚洲廉价航空公司的两面夹攻,新航(Singapore Airlines)正试图进行全面革新以恢复增长,进一步打入廉价航空市场和扩大其区域网络。

拥有国家支持的阿联酋航空(Emirates Airline)、 阿提哈德航空(Etihad Airways)和卡塔尔航空(Qatar Airways)正积极洽谈各项交易,海湾国家则争相成为亚太地区与欧洲之间的中转中心。

新航进行的长程航班机票促销提高了其客运量,但客运收益却面对压力。占新航收入约40%的特等舱因企业预算减少而受到了冲击。

凯德集团的升势是否会持续下去?


凯德集团的升势是否会持续下去?
文: 韩巍 (译:杨佳文) 2013年05月17日 技术分析
凯德集团(CapitaLand)的股价在2012年下半年持续上涨,但到了今年2月底却开始滑落,且进一步下跌至3.40元。之后,其股票在3月底至4月底进入了盘整期。

凯德的股价随后上涨,目前已重返升势。最近,其股价回跌至3.85元的阻力位之下。随着投资者卖出的股票数量逐渐减少,显示卖盘减弱。此外,新加坡交易所的其他产业股也已开始上扬。

凯德的股票估计将继续处于升势。投资者可考虑在股价回撤时趁低买入。公司已于5月9日发布了其第一季业绩,其盈利稳定。因此,公司在基本面方面不会面对大风险,而其股价在接下来的几个月内也不会因为公司发布业绩而出现短期波动。

原產品熊氣有望消散


原產品熊氣有望消散
Created 05/17/2013 - 17:30
(吉隆坡17日訊)中國經濟成長隱憂和美元轉強令近期原產品市場死氣沉沉,惟分析員認為,原產品的“熊氣"已“過火",預見中美經濟復甦重返軌道,加上原產品供應的“調適",有望終結“美元走強,原產品失落"的魔咒。

不過,和大馬經濟命脈相接的原棕油恐難沾到該喜氣,因儘管4月庫存跌至9個月新低,大馬首季經濟成長僅錄得4.1%,凸顯了大馬短期內的棕油出口依舊挑戰重重。

全球宏觀經濟的隱憂和大部份原產品的供應提高,令4月的原產品價連續第二個月走疲,蒸發了多達2.7%。除因季節性需求轉強而逃過一劫的天然氣,主要原產品皆全軍覆沒。

或進軍緬甸‧馬麵粉廠4千萬增產


或進軍緬甸‧馬麵粉廠4千萬增產
Created 05/17/2013 - 11:11
(吉隆坡16日訊)馬面粉廠(MFLOUR,3662,主板消費品組)預計原料價格將持穩下調,看好麵粉營業額今年至少增5%,同時不排除進軍緬甸。

擴大巴西古當生產線

另外,該公司也撥4千萬令吉資本開銷,拓展巴西古當麵粉廠新生產線,料於今年9月完成,每天可增加400噸產量。

該公司董事經理鄭偉財在股東大會後表示,麵粉將隨著人均消耗量同步增長,預計今年的麵粉營業額貢獻將上揚至少5%。

傳主席見經濟放緩要改革 習近平出手 A股仍冇救


【本報訊】內地經濟開慢車,近期外資行紛紛調低增長預測,「保八」一早淪為口號。有見內地經濟增速低走,市傳國家主席習近平也按捺不住,親自出馬大搞改革,以圖挽救低沉的內地經濟,消息刺激內地A股午後升逾1%。

記者:黃尹華

習近平出招救經濟的消息傳出前,A股僅牛皮,之後A股便逐步上升,但升幅僅1至2%,反映投資者並不十分興奮,或許對消息及藥效半信半疑。滬綜指收市漲31點或1.4%,報2282點;深成指升184點或2%,報9246點。

Friday, May 17, 2013

瑞信证券看涨 马股任何回调属短暂


(吉隆坡17日讯)在第13届大选尘埃落定,政治因素恢復明朗化的情况下,大马瑞士信贷证券(Credit Suisse Securities)看好马股將会受到外资与本土投资者的买盘扶持下持续上涨。

大马瑞士信贷证券董事经理兼股票主管史蒂芬汉克表示,外资在大选来临之际已连续3至4个月凈买进马股。在政治风险除去的当儿,外资也进而成为积极的买家。因此,史蒂芬汉克相信外资將会继续此买进的趋势。

此外,史蒂芬汉克估计还在场外观望的本土投资者也將会重新进场,进一步推高马股的走势。

国內外投资者追逐

索羅斯大冧前再沽金


國際投資名宿索羅斯寶刀未老,繼早前傳沽空日圓和澳元大賺後,他最近又在金價大冧前進一步減持黃金,成功避過一劫,亦幾近沽清股價不斷尋底的蘋果公司。黃金大好友普爾遜則死撐,維持全球最大黃金交易所買賣基金(ETF)SPDR Gold Trust持倉不變,惟受金價下跌拖累,上季已帳蝕1.65億美元。

據投資大戶向美國證交會(SEC)呈交文件顯示,索羅斯繼去年第四季大削SPDR Gold持倉55%後,首季再減持12%,由60萬股降至53.09萬股,以周三收市價計,僅值約7,147萬美元。

索羅斯上月在訪問中難掩其對投資黃金的失望心情。他指出,去年當歐元瀕臨崩潰之際,金價實際上跟隨其他資產下挫,因為投資者需要沽金套現,這證明黃金並不安全,終極避險地位遭到動搖,故大部分投資者減持黃金。

China Minzhong: Volume Growth to Offset Margin Decline (MKE)


China Minzhong
Buy(unchanged)
Share price: SGD1.025
Target price: SGD1.36 (unchanged)
Volume Growth to Offset Margin Decline

BUY maintained. China Minzhong announced a mixed set of 3QFY6/13 results. Strong revenue was partly offset by rising cost, which resulted in only 6% net profit growth. Apart from the results itself, we are quite optimistic on the likelihood of the first dividend payout since IPO next quarter. We continue to like Minzhong’s growth outlook and the alliance with Indofood. Maintain our positive stance on the company and keep our target price unchanged at SGD1.36. Current 3.8x FY14 PER seems not justified for a double-digit growth company in our view. The next catalyst for the stock will be the potential dividends next quarter.

Biosensors Int'l : The spectrum of dynamics(CIMB)


Biosensors Int'l
Current S$1.24
Target S$1.73
The spectrum of dynamics

 BIG finally made its move on the M&A front after months of deliberation. While this bite-size acquisition might not be significant at first glance, it is telling that the group is on the prowl again after the mega acquisition of JWMSin 2011.

Aside from milestone payments and acquisition cost, there is little colour otherwise, although we believe it will be mildly accretive. Given this and excluding accretive earnings from this acquisition and BioFreedom, we reduce FY14-15 EPS by 2-32% while the SOP-based target price is shaved to S$1.73. Maintain Outperform as positive financial effects from new products, better operation and M&A accretion are understated.

ASL Marine : Short-term pain for long-term gain? (CIMB)

ASL Marine
Current S$0.67
Target S$0.86
Short-term pain for long-term gain?

 Though it meets our expectations, 3Q could have been better, if not for the higher administration costs due to Vosta’s consolidation. While we concur with this longer-term strategic investment, we conservatively down play its near-term contributions given the lack of visibility.

At 19% of our FY13 forecast (9M at 75%), 3Q core earnings were broadly in line with our expectations though below consensus. Factoring in higher admin expenses, we cut our FY13-15 EPS by 2-16%. Despite the cut, below-book valuations support our Outperform rating, while steady repair and chartering divisions should navigate the group through choppy waters. Maintain our target price, still at 0.9x CY13 P/BV, its five-year mean.

BreadTalk Group: Still pricey for now (OCBC)


BreadTalk Group:
Fair value S$0.77
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.010
versus: Current price S$1.00

Still pricey for now
• 1Q13 results within expectations
• New headquarters to bring savings
• But impact will not be immediate

BreadTalk’s 1Q results came in within our expectations with revenue growing 13.4% YoY to S$120.3m on the back of broad segment increases while operating and PATMI increased by 45.6% and 46.0% to S$3.5m and S$2.1m respectively.

Fortune REIT : Firing on all cylinders (DBSV)


Fortune REIT
BUY HK$7.90
HSI : 23,211
Price Target : 12-month HK$8.38 (Prev HK$7.74)
Firing on all cylinders

􀂃Distribution income was 5% ahead of our forecast due to stronger-than-expected revenue growth
􀂃Continued asset enhancement initiatives to fuel growth
􀂃Well positioned to make accretive acquisitions
􀂃BUY with TP raised to HK$8.38

Mapletree Greater China Commercial Trust : Showing defensive attributes (DBSV)


Mapletree Greater China Commercial Trust
BUY S$1.14
STI : 3,443.77
Price Target : 12-Month S$ 1.22 (Prev S$ 1.18)
Showing defensive attributes

• Festival Walk showing resilience in tenant trades
• Locked-in lease expiries provide income visibility
• Maintain Buy, TP S$1.22

Festival Walk - resilience from catering to local shoppers. The resilience of Festival Walk continues to be highlighted. Our latest checks with management showed that the property continued to enjoy a 9% y-o-y growth in tenant sales from Jan-Mar 13 (up from 6% y-o-y expansion in the previous quarter) and showed a more sustainable sales growth impetus when compared to the greater deceleration in momentum of other malls in HK that are more dependent on the mainland Chinese shopper dollar.

Midas Holdings: On The Way To Recovery (MIB)


Midas Holdings
Buy(unchanged)
Share price: SGD0.475
Target price: SGD0.75 (unchanged)
On The Way To Recovery

Investment Theme in tact. Midas reported a net loss of RMB5m for 1QFY13 as guided by the company last weekend. Our investment theme for Midas remains to be a bet on improving order flow in 2013 and a turnaround in earnings in 2014. We don’t expect too much further downside from here because share price has reacted negatively post company’s profit warning last weekend and is now trading at book value. We maintain BUY and target price of SGD0.75, pegged to 1.25x FY14 book value. Key catalyst for the stock is continuous order wins and the resumption of high speed train tender in China.

Parkway Life REIT : Fundamentals Intact Although Valuations Starting To Look Rich (UOBKH)

Parkway Life REIT
Share Price S$2.74
Target Price S$2.70
Fundamentals Intact Although Valuations Starting To Look Rich; Downgrade To HOLD

No surprises with PLife’s DPU within expectations due to resilient income supported by yen hedges. Management feedback suggests that forward catalysts would emerge from third-party acquisitions and asset enhancements. We raise our target price to S$2.70 (from S$2.62), factoring in lower interest costs, but downgrade the stock to HOLD on valuations as current yields are fair at 3.8%. Entry price is at S$2.35.

Fraser & Neave (FNN) reported solid fiscal second quarter (Limtan)


FRASER & NEAVE
Stock Update S$8.88-FNN SP
 Fraser & Neave (FNN) reported solid fiscal second quarter profit before interest and tax of S$163.6 million, up 71% y-o-y. But profit after tax for the quarter (S$66 million, down 48% y-o-y) was negatively affected by the one-time charge of S$72 million that arose from the general cash offer.

 Overall, its underlying businesses performed well, with its property unit posting strong earnings, up 21% y-o-y, buoyed by strong rental income and progressive revenue recognition of pre-sold residential projects in Singapore.

Wilmar International: Earnings recovery underway (MKE)


Wilmar International
Buy (unchanged)
Share price: SGD3.38
Target price: SGD4.60 (unchanged)
Earnings recovery underway

Above expectations. 1Q13 results were above expectations, with recurring net profit up 53% yoy and making up 23% of full-year consensus (2H is seasonally stronger due to sugar contributions). We remain convinced that earnings expectation are still too low, and current stock price level represents an opportunity for accumulation.

Saizen REIT : Exciting times ahead (NRA)

Saizen REIT
Current Price S$0.190
Fair Value S$0.20
Exciting times ahead

 3QFY13 NPI was largely in line but NOI was below expectations due to one-off costs. 3QFY13 rental revenue remained relatively stable, growing 2.0% QoQ to JPY959.4m due largely to the acquisition of two properties in 3QFY13. But net property income (NPI) fell 3.3% QoQ to JPY645.1m largely due to a 15.0% QoQ rise in property operating expenses, particularly utility charges incurred during the winter months and leasing and marketing expenses as well as repair and maintenance expenses incurred during the leasing season. 3QFY13 net operating income (NOI) fell by a steep 70.5% QoQ to JPY144.4m, largely due to one-off swap breakage costs of JPY135.3m and write-off of loan commission of JPY148.0m incurred in connection with the refinancing of loans in 3QFY13. NAV per unit fell from 27Scts as at 31 Dec 2012 to 25 Scts as at 31 Mar 2013 due to a depreciation of 7.6% in the yen against the Singapore dollar (S$).

Marco Polo Marine: Better Charter Rates In Store (OCBC)

Marco Polo Marine: Better Charter Rates In Store
(BUY, SGD0.43, and TP: SGD0.61)

MPM’s 2QFY13 results were slightly weaker than expected as poor weather dampened the tug & barge operations while volumes at the drydocks declined. We see much stronger core performance in FY14F as its expanding fleet of Indonesian offshore support vessels (OSVs) will enjoy a 30% revision when their charters expire.

Surprisingly low drydock volume, protracted monsoon period in 2Q. While the drydocks still posted a 75% utilization rate, the actual repair work per vessel was uncharacteristically lower than average. This resulted in the company’s quarterly revenue coming in at a mere SGD4.8m versus SGD8m-SGD9m typically. The unusually long monsoon season also negatively affected its tug & barge operations.

曾淵滄:難料何時見底


【各界意見】

城市大學商學院工商管理碩士課程主任曾淵滄表示,較早前金價反彈,主要受傳媒大肆報道金價下跌,引發中國及印度「大媽」搶金所致,但熱潮過後適逢美元續強,金價再跌屬正常,投資者現時不宜買金,目前難料何時見底。

經濟學家郎咸平亦指過去100年間,黃金只有20年是上漲,其餘80年都在下跌。加上黃金與美國經濟的走勢相反,因此美國現時經濟數據轉強時,投資者沒必要搶金。

羅傑斯:1,200美元可吸納
不過,另一經濟學家謝國忠則唱反調,認為金價再跌便再買。謝國忠指出,過去五年,貨幣政策並未達標,反而使資產市場出現大幅波動,雖然近期金價回落,但黃金持有人仍是宏觀環境的巨大受益者。只有當通脹危機迫使全球央行收水的時候,黃金牛市才會終結。

Thursday, May 16, 2013

马麵粉厂探討进军缅甸

(吉隆坡16日讯)马麵粉厂(MFLOUR,3662,主板消费股)將视缅甸为该公司麵粉厂业务的潜在市场。

马麵粉厂主席丹斯里阿尔沙阿佑表示,在缅甸麵粉厂非常少,所以该公司正在探討进军缅甸。

「我们放眼今年的麵粉厂业务成长5%。隨著成功以联营的方式进军印尼市场,我们正在探討进军缅甸,將它视为下一个潜在市场。」

他在今天出席该公司股东常年大会后,向媒体发表谈话。马麵粉厂除了以联营的方式进军印尼市场,该公司在越南也拥有两家麵粉厂。

Deleum bids for RM2b contracts


KUALA LUMPUR: Oil and gas services provider Deleum Bhd, which aims for regional expansion, is tendering for contracts worth RM2 billion
this year.

The contracts were related to power and machinery, oilfield services and maintenance, repair and overhaul works, its group managing director Nan Yusry
Nan Rahimy said.

"We currently have contracts worth RM1.4 billion that would last through 2018," he said at a media briefing after the company's annual general meeting here today.

UOA發展財測不變

UOA發展財測不變
Created 05/16/2013 - 17:24
(吉隆坡16日訊)UOA發展(UOADEV,5200,主板產業組)首季業績超越市場預期,分析員對該公司現金不斷攀高表示欣喜,惟估計未來兩季盈利可能隨工程進賬減少而出現放緩,選擇暫時保持財測不變。

肯納格研究指出,UOA發展在2013年首季錄取1億1千500萬令吉核心盈利,佔市場全年財測35%,惟考量未來兩季盈利可能放緩,首季表現僅能算符合預期。

“UOA發展首季銷售達9億2千900萬令吉,佔2013全年18億令吉銷售預估的52%,對於餘下季度,該公司有意再推介另外13億令吉的產業計劃,目前持有的11億令吉未入賬銷售保障未來1年盈利。"

带动建筑商订单 MRT2再掀产业抢购潮


带动建筑商订单 MRT2再掀产业抢购潮
Created 05/16/2013 - 14:03
(吉隆坡14日讯)捷运(MRT)路线2(简称MRT2)料最早今年7月初审批通过,不但会带动本地建筑商订单,也预计为新捷运站周围地区掀起另一轮产业抢购风潮。

金务大(Gamuda,5398,主板建筑股)董事经理拿督林云琳日前会见分析员时透露,MRT2计划的详细研究已完成,随时上呈内阁。

林云琳表示,连接双溪毛糯和布城的MRT2料耗资249亿令吉,此计划最早将在今年7月初审批通过。

马银行投资银行分析员表示,随着MRT2土建工程料2015年中旬动工,本地建筑业者订单填补可见度将走高。

附加股认购率若不足 马航考虑其它融资管道


附加股认购率若不足 马航考虑其它融资管道
Created 05/15/2013 - 10:42
(柯拉娜再也14日讯)马航(MAS,3786,主板贸服股)表示,如果附加股认购率不足将考虑其它融资管道。

马航总执行长阿末昭哈里在股东常年大会后受询时如是表示。

阿末昭哈里说,马航大股东国库控股(Khazanah)已承诺认购配额,预计至少能筹集20亿令吉。

IOI集團漲勢受抑


IOI集團漲勢受抑
Created 05/15/2013 - 18:32
(吉隆坡15日訊)IOI集團(IOICORP,1961,主板種植組)建議產業臂膀分拆上市,分析員雖正面看待此舉能激勵產業及種植兩大業務獲重估,不過卻認為這無法帶來顯著增值效益,相信IOI集團股價上漲空間有限。

馬銀行研究指出,產業臂膀分拆上市後,最大的利好是IOI集團將成為純種植業者,惟對IOI集團股價的助益並不大,預計漲勢仍受抑制。

未為股東帶來顯著價值

“至於IOI產業面對的主要風險,是其估值能否追上IOI集團的約19倍本益比。"

进场价低回酬客观 IOI 产业上市股东大赢


进场价低回酬客观 IOI 产业上市股东大赢
Created 05/16/2013 - 11:49
(吉隆坡15日讯)IOI集团(IOICorp,1961,主板种植股)决定分拆IOI产业及上市,市场乐观看好之余,更认为将为公司和股东创造双赢。

分拆IOI产业及上市建议将让IOI集团得以释放股东价值,股东也将直接从两家上市公司潜在增长中受惠。

根据分拆上市计划,股东每持有3股IOI集团获赠1股IOI产业,并根据6配1的比例以低于IPO价的30%认购限制献售股票。

UOA sees top returns in Klang Valley


The Star Online > Business
Thursday May 16, 2013
UOA sees top returns in Klang Valley

By JOHN LOH
johnloh@thestar.com.my

KUALA LUMPUR: The Klang Valley still offers the “best returns” for property player UOA Development Bhd (UOA Dev) despite the hype surrounding Iskandar Malaysia and rising interest in Penang, according to managing director Kong Chong Soon.

The company, which has 48.56ha of land in and around Kuala Lumpur worth RM15bil in gross development value (GDV), had mulled over opportunities in Johor's 221,634ha Iskandar area, now a hotbed for real estate firms, two years ago, but decided against venturing outside its comfort zone.

Globetronics spends RM40mil on new chips for US and Japan smart mobile devices


The Star Online > Business
Thursday May 16, 2013
Globetronics spends RM40mil on new chips for US and Japan smart mobile devices

By DAVID TAN
davidtan@thestar.com.my
GEORGE TOWN: Globetronics Technology Bhd plans to spend RM35mil to RM40mil on fresh designing and development activities in the second half of 2013.

Globetronics chief executive officer Heng Huck Lee said the company would use the money to develop the next generation of sensor chips that would enhance the interface features and applications of smart mobile devices.

Genting Hong Kong : NCL on track for strong growth (DBSV)


Genting Hong Kong
BUY US$0.485/HK$3.80
STI : 3,383.16/ HSI : 23,047.09
Price Target : 12-month US$0.55/ HK$ 4.24
NCL on track for strong growth

• NCL results in line, guidance above our estimates
• Philippines corporate tax could dent earnings by 7-10%, should be offset by stronger growth
• Maintain BUY with SOP-based TP of US$0.55/HK$4.24

NCL results in line. GENHK’s 43%-owned Norwegian Cruise Line raked in 1Q13 adjusted net income of US$13m - a significant improvement from 1Q12’s US$3m. EBITDA of US$100m (+6.6% y-o-y, -3.6% q-o-q) constituted 15-17% of consensus and our full-year estimates respectively – consistent with historical trends (1Q seasonally weaker).

Far East Hospitality Trust : Commendable performance (DBSV)


Far East Hospitality Trust
BUY S$1.115
STI : 3,383.16
Price Target : 12-Month S$ 1.21
Commendable performance

• Commendable results amid a weak quarter
• AEIs and acquisition of Grand Rendezvous Hotel Singapore to complement a steady growth profile
• BUY, TP S$1.21 maintained

FJ Benjamin Grey Skies Ahead (MKE)

FJ Benjamin
Sell (unchanged)
Share price: SGD0.27
Target price: SGD0.18 (from 0.19)
Grey Skies Ahead

Below expectations. FJ Benjamin (FJB) reported its third quarter results where 9MFYJun13 revenue of SGD283.8m (-6% YoY), and net profit of SGD4m (-67% YoY). 9M revenue and net profit makes up 72% and 58% of our FYJun13F forecast. Situation in North Asia remains gloomy owing to Chinese government’s clamp down on luxury timepieces and reduced tourist spending across the board. We expect a couple more quarters of slowdown in sales before any turnaround could be expected. We roll forward our valuation, and peg our TP to a lower multiple of 13x. Maintain SELL.

Quill Capita Trust: Resilient in a soft market (DBSV)

Quill Capita Trust
BUY RM1.19
KLCI : 1,766.07
Price Target : 12-month RM 1.45
Resilient in a soft market

1Q13 in line; resilient earnings despite lower revenue
No distribution declared for the quarter as expected
Impending large office space supply entails muted rental reversions ahead
Maintain BUY with DCF-based RM1.45 TP

StarHub Ltd - Downgrade to SELL – pricey now (OCBC)


StarHub Ltd -
Fair value S$4.00
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.200
versus: Current price S$4.72

Downgrade to SELL – pricey now
• 1Q results in line
• Sees lower revenue growth
• Unattractive 4.2% yield

StarHub Ltd posted 1Q13 revenue of S$580.1m, down 2% YoY and 11% QoQ, but still met 23% of our full-year forecast. Net profit grew 3% YoY and 4% QoQ to S$91.2m, meeting 25% of our FY13 forecast. And as guided, StarHub declared a quarterly dividend of S$0.05/share, payable on 30 May 2013.

Hyflux : Flowing slowly (DBSV)


Hyflux
HOLD S$1.435
STI : 3,432.78
Price Target : 12-Month S$ 1.4
Flowing slowly

• 1Q13 slightly under, formed 12% of FY13F
• Project execution on track, pipeline awaiting conclusion
• Maintain forecast; Hold and TP unchanged at S$1.43

Highlights
Revenue fell short but margins held firm. 1Q13 net profit of S$8m came in slightly below our S$9m forecast. Sales declined 10% y-o-y to S$124.5m but net profit rose 5%.

Neptune Orient Lines : bunker and logistics not enough to get earnings across the line (CS)


Neptune Orient Lines
Price (08 May 13 , S$) 1.12
TP (prev. TP S$) 0.95 (0.95)
Maintain UNDERPERFORM
1Q13 preview – bunker and logistics not enough to get earnings across the line

● Neptune Orient Lines (NOL) will release its 1Q13 results next Tuesday, 14 May and we expect a pre-ex loss of S$41 mn. This excludes a US$195 mn gain on its HQ building sale and compares with 1Q12’s loss of US$260 mn and 4Q12’s US$115 mn loss.

● Anticipated growth of 2% in liner volumes and 1% in rates should combine with a doubling of logistics contributions and 12%+ declines in bunker prices to drive the improved performance, although this is expected to NOL’s eighth pre-ex loss in the last nine reporting seasons

All-out war in Asia-Europe (CIMB)


 All-out war in Asia-Europe
Rates in Asia-North Europe (A/NE) fell for the eighth consecutive week as some carriers took advantage of other carriers' decision to pull out capacity by cutting rates to fill up their own ships. A/NE rates could retest the Dec 2011 lows unless carriers act decisively.

 If A/NE rates trend lower for a few more months, we may see a repeat of the massive rate push in early-2012 as carriers must now be bleeding heavily. We stay Neutral on shipping overall, with Pacific Basin our top pick as it remains profitable despite record-low bulk rates and valuations are compelling. OOIL and SITC are also Outperforms as they are both well-run and lower-risk companies despite being in a tough industry.

Parkway Life REIT: Proxy for Japan reflation (CIMB)


Parkway Life REIT
Current S$2.76
Target S$2.72
Proxy for Japan reflation

 With JPY hedges in place till 1Q17, Plife delivered another quarter of yoy DPU growth in 1Q and is one of the best proxies for Japan reflation among Singapore-listed stocks. Inflation-pegged rental adjustments in Singapore and acquisitions should drive DPU growth.

At 25% of our FY13 DPU, 1Q is deemed as slightly above our forecast given an expected backend-loaded year from acquisitions. DPU was in line with consensus. We raise DPUs due to lower interest costs and lift our DDM-based target price given a lower discount rate of 6.2% (prev. 6.7%) for Plife’s stability. Maintain Neutral due to valuations with catalysts from accretive acquisitions.

曾淵滄專欄 16.05.13:新能源股只宜短炒


曾淵滄專欄:新能源股只宜短炒 - 曾淵滄

發改委副主任劉鐵男傳出下台新聞,他也曾為國家能源局局長,新舊能源的投資都要經他批准。過去,不少新能源投資項目都被扣壓在能源局,得不到批文,不能上馬。因此,他一下台,大量新能源股馬上熱炒,多隻新能源股也成為升幅榜的首20名成員。

我認為炒作可能仍會持續一段時間。畢竟,新能源股確實跌得太殘,現在趁劉鐵男下台,炒作一番也很正常。但大家記住,中國長期能源大政策仍未明朗,新能源股暫時而言只適合短炒。

Marco Polo Marine: Waiting for offshore division to grow (OCBC)


Marco Polo Marine:
Fair value S$0.51
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.00
versus: Current price S$0.43

Waiting for offshore division to grow
• Subdued shipyard operations
• Offshore chartering remains key driver
• Downgrade to HOLD

Marco Polo Marine (MPM) reported a 31% YoY fall in revenue to S$21.3m but a 121% rise in net profit to S$9.3m in 2QFY13, such that 1HFY13 net profit accounted for 58% of our full year estimate.

CSC Steel - Off To a Good Start


CSC Steel -
Price Target:1.72
Last Price:1.43
Off To a Good Start

CSC  Steel  (CSC)’s 1QFY13 net earnings of MYR17.5m  were  above  our and  street  estimates  on  higher  sales  and  improved  profit  margin.  The Indonesian authority’s anti-dumping duty against East Asian steel mills spurred  the  group’s sales while  the  increase  in  steel  prices  further boosted its profitability. We revise up our earnings forecast and derive a new MYR1.72 FV. Maintain Trading BUY.

-  Beating  expectations.  CSC  Steel  (CSC)’s  1QFY13  net  profit  of MYR17.5m  (+211.8%  q-o-q,  215.6%  y-o-y)  was  above  our  and consensus estimates. 1QFY13 revenue grew 15.8% q-o-q and 28.8% y-o-y on the back of  higher sales volume of  all its steel products, albeit at lower  selling  prices.  Furthermore,  the  EBITDA  margin  improved  by 440bps q-o-q and 340bps y-o-y, buoyed by lower raw material costs and declining unit production cost due to economies of scale.  

匯控首提回購 還富股民


匯控首提回購 還富股民
資金充裕 券商料可大增派息
2013年5月16日
【明報專訊】匯豐控股(0005)在昨天的策略日推出新一輪3年大計(指2014至2016年),在目前每年已節省40億美元成本的基礎上,進一步節省20億至30億美元。行政總裁歐智華還提出了兩招,拿匯控的資本來「還富給股民」,除了承諾盈利增長的同時,增加派息之外,他亦首度提出計劃回購公司股份,以中和以股代息對每股盈利的攤薄效應,回購股份將有助支持匯控股價。

市場對於匯控提出回購大計初時未見興奮,消息公布後,該股在香港收報87.95元,無升跌。但昨晚在倫敦卻抽升,截至昨晚11時,倫敦匯控的報價折算為每股89元,較香港收市升逾1元。

MAS confident of good take-up for rights issue

MAS confident of good take-up for rights issue
Business & Markets 2013

Written by theedgemalaysia.com  
Wednesday, 15 May 2013 09:21

KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysia Airline System Bhd (MAS) is confident that its rights issue, aiming to raise up to RM3.07 billion, will see a good take-up.

“As you know, Khazanah Nasional Bhd has undertaken to subscribe to its portion and the major shareholders are quite supportive.

Wednesday, May 15, 2013

Yongnam Holdings’ Q1 earnings edges up to $11.5mil


Yongnam Holdings’ Q1 earnings edges up to $11.5mil

Yongnam Holdings, the structural steel contractor and specialist civil engineering solutions provider, today reported a net profit of $11.5 million for the three months ended March 31, 2013 (1QFY2013), up from $11.4 million from last year (1QFY2012). This was achieved on the back of a 21.8% increase in revenue to $81.9 million, compared to the corresponding quarter of the previous year (1QFY2012).

Ongoing projects like the Singapore Sports Hub, Suntec City Convention Centre and the belt conveyor structure project for the Beumer Group in Malaysia, boosted revenue in the Structural Steelworks segment by an impressive 90.5% to $45.4 million in 1QFY2013.

Food Empire posts 11.3% rise in net profit to $7mil in Q1


Food Empire Holdings, an international food and beverages company headquartered in Singapore, reported a 11.3% increase in net profit to US$5.5 million ($6.9 million) for the first quarter ended 31 March 2013 (1Q2013) from US$5 million last year (1Q2012).

Group revenue grew by 13.5% from last year to US$58.4 million, mainly due to strong revenue growth in Russia, Eastern Europe and Central Asia.

In 1Q2013, sales to the group’s largest region, Russia, rose by 18% to US$36.4 million, compared to US$30.8 million in 1Q2012. In the Eastern Europe and Central Asia region (comprising Ukraine, Kazakhstan and the CIS Countries), sales increased by 25% to US$17.6 million in 1Q2013 from US$14.1 million in 1Q2012. Sales to the group’s Other Markets fell by 32.2% to US$4.4 million in 1Q2013 from US$6.5 million in 1Q2012 due to lower sales in Middle East and Asia.

公积金局大选后减持马股 料脱售逾3亿令吉股票


公积金局大选后减持马股 料脱售逾3亿令吉股票
Created 05/15/2013 - 15:27
(吉隆坡15日讯)雇员公积金局从5·05全国大选以来,趁马股走强脱售了超过3亿3100万令吉的股票。

根据彭博社的资料,富时隆综指5月6日跳涨3.4%后,公积金局就相继减持20只综指成分股。

其中UEM置地控股(UEMLand,5148,主板产业股)单日脱售量最高,而大众银行(PBBANK,1295,主板金融股)是公积金局过去3个月减持最多的综指股。

大众银行5月6日涨升3.4%,公积金局当日脱售263万股,过后两天内再减持约450万股。公积金局目前仍持有4亿7200万股或13.5%股权。

盈利有驚喜‧CSC中期展望仍謹慎


盈利有驚喜‧CSC中期展望仍謹慎
Created 05/14/2013 - 18:35
(吉隆坡14日訊)CSC鋼鐵(CSCSTEL,5094,主板工業產品組)2013年財政年首季淨利1千750萬令吉,超越興業研究及一般市場預測,主要是較高銷售額及賺幅改善利好支撐。

印尼當局對東亞鋼鐵廠採取反傾銷措施,使該公司銷售走高,同時鋼鐵產品價格走高,及原料成本走低,則刺激公司的盈利幅度。

興業指出,印尼採取鋼鐵廠反傾銷措施,但並沒有包括大馬在內,使CSC鋼鐵出口業務從中受惠。

興業認為,該行較早時對其財測較為保守,使該行檢討其估值模式,而將其2013年及2014年淨利預測,分別調高31%及17%,至4千290萬令吉以及4千830萬令吉。

冠旺和建裕股價大波動‧私有化傳言再起


冠旺和建裕股價大波動‧私有化傳言再起
Created 05/15/2013 - 11:16
(吉隆坡14日訊)冠旺(CANONE,5105,主板工業產品組)和建裕珍廠(KIANJOO,3522,主板工業產品組)過去兩天價量猛漲,平息一年的私有化傳言再次升溫。

不過,在連升兩天後,二股今日雙雙回落,其中冠旺下跌27仙收3令吉27仙,成交量報155萬3千600股;建裕珍廠也滑落5仙至2令吉68仙,成交量為117萬3千600股。

此前市場盛傳,掌握建裕珍廠32.9%股權的冠旺,有意收購其餘67.1%股權,以私有化這家罐頭巨擘,這項消息推動冠旺過去兩個交易日猛漲94仙,並在昨日刷下3令吉60仙全年新高後,收在3令吉54仙;同在昨日改寫全年新高2令吉79仙的建裕珍廠,則在兩天內上揚28仙,昨日收2令吉73仙。

Neptune Orient reports quarterly profit on building sale, fuel


Neptune Orient reports quarterly profit on building sale, fuel
WRITTEN BY MEDELINE TING  
TUESDAY, 14 MAY 2013 18:56

Neptune Orient Lines, Southeast Asia’s biggest container-shipping company, posted a profit in the first quarter, helped by gains from selling its headquarters and lower fuel costs.

Net income in the three months ended April 5 was US$75.5 million (93.7 million), compared with a US$254 million loss a year earlier, the shipping line said in a statement to the Singapore stock exchange today. Sales slipped 0.4% to US$2.37 billion.

Noble Group falls after quarterly profit slumps


Noble Group falls after quarterly profit slumps
WRITTEN BY BLOOMBERG  
WEDNESDAY, 15 MAY 2013 11:27

Noble Group, Asia’s largest publicly traded commodity trader by sales, dropped by the most in six months in Singapore after reporting a 62% slump in first-quarter profit.

Noble fell 4.5% to $1.065 as of 10:41 a.m. local time, the biggest decline since Nov. 14, after saying yesterday earnings were dragged down by a loss at its agricultural unit. The stock’s decline compared with the 0.2% gain in the benchmark Straits Times index.

泛亚物流 下半年业绩亮眼


泛亚物流 下半年业绩亮眼
Created 05/15/2013 - 10:57
目标价:2.35令吉

最新进展:

受周期性影响,泛亚物流(Tasco,5140,主板贸易服务股)2013财年首季盈利按季滑落42.1%,按年下跌34%至430万令吉。营业额也下滑,按季滑落10.9%,按年下跌21.1%。

全球疲弱,加上主要制造业与香烟领域客户减少出口,影响泛亚物流的海外业务。

此外,清仓、搬运和仓库业务降低,导致国内业务表现失色。

中钢大马 净利预测调升

中钢大马 净利预测调升
Created 05/15/2013 - 10:58
目标价:1.33令吉

最新进展:

虽然销量增长缓和销售价低,但原料成本低提高赚幅,促使中钢大马(CSCStel,5094,主板工业产品股)2013财年首季写下1750万令吉净利,较上财年高约3倍。

然而,中国产量过剩、成本价不稳定和钢铁产品价趋低,可能影响中钢大马接下来的表现。

行家建议:

中东冠状病毒疑虑升 旅游概念股恐受打击


中东冠状病毒疑虑升 旅游概念股恐受打击
Created 05/15/2013 - 10:54
(吉隆坡14日讯)分析员指出,冠状病毒(Coronavirus)重演非典型肺炎(SARS)疑虑升温,一旦世界卫生组织(WHO)发布旅游警告,旅游相关股必受影响。

分析员建议,届时可趁低买入云顶马来西亚(GenM,4715,主板贸服股)与大马机场(Airport,5014,主板贸服股)。

从中东开始发现的冠状病毒,如今蔓延至法国和德国,此外,中国尚有H7N9隐忧未解。

CSC Steel surges 7.5% after tripling profit in Q1


The Star Online > Business
Wednesday May 15, 2013
CSC Steel surges 7.5% after tripling profit in Q1

PETALING JAYA: Shares of CSC Steel Holdings Bhd leapt to their highest since February last year, gaining 7.5% or 10 sen to RM1.43 after the steel maker tripled its profit for the first quarter ended March 31, beating expectations.

The counter saw 1.56 million shares traded with prices ranging from RM1.41 to RM1.45.

Two research houses tracking the company also raised their target prices to RM1.46 and RM1.72, citing upward revisions to their earnings forecasts for CSC.

MAS can self finance ops, unlikely to seek funds in market for purchase of aircraft


The Star Online > Business
Wednesday May 15, 2013
MAS can self finance ops, unlikely to seek funds in market for purchase of aircraft

By B K SIDHU
bksidhu@thestar.com.my

PETALING JAYA: Malaysia Airlines (MAS) is unlikely to return to the market to raise more funds for either the purchase of aircraft or working capital, as it would be able to generate enough cash to sustain operations by end-2014.

“No, we will not (go to the market for more funds so long as it does not continue to suffer losses). As we move forward, MAS would be in a position to self finance (its operations), as its balance sheet (would be) strong,” group chief executive officer Ahmad Jauhari Yahya said.

Fraser & Neave: What if FNN is kept listed? (CIMB)

Fraser & Neave
Current S$8.96
Target S$10.03
What if FNN is kept listed?

 We estimate investors will be getting its property business at a 41% discount to RNAV. Unit sales have risen since the takeover saga began, with unbooked presales now at S$3.3bn. F&B profits have also recovered. Around 39% of its value is backed by APB cash proceeds.

We lower our FY13-15 core EPS by 8-36% to factor in the sale of APB. We lift our target price (still pegged at a 20% discount to its property RNAV) on higher property and F&B values. Early signs suggest FNN will remain listed – it is still an investable stock with strong property growth potential, adequate free-float market cap and potential for higher dividends. Clarity on the group’s strategic direction is the wildcard. Maintain Outperform.

Pacific Basin : Optimistic but realistic...earnings cut to reflect slow 1Q13 (CS)


Pacific Basin Shipping Ltd
Price (08 May 13 , HK$) 4.39
TP (prev. TP HK$) 5.00 (5.10)
Maintain OUTPERFORM
Optimistic but realistic...earnings cut to reflect slow 1Q13

● Pacific Basin (PB) recently announced its 1Q13 trading result; it continued its relative outperformance of the market, but lagged our expectations of rates recovery.

● A combination of slower China, even more impactful climatic challenges and holiday timing conspired against fixtures during the period and saw PB generate TCE rates of US$8,820/day for its handysizes and US$9,930/day for handymaxes, 24% and 22%, respectively below our 2013E average projections.

Hyflux : Livin’ on the edge (CIMB)


Hyflux
Current S$1.44
Target S$1.42
Livin’ on the edge

 Lumpy earnings is characteristic of HYF results. While we have no complaints about revenue and margins, we do not see recurring operating & maintenance (O&M) contributions coming through. New project wins must come soon to silence critics.

1Q13 profit was 12% of our FY13 estimate, which we deem in line. Our numbers stay the same, still reflecting the current recognition schedule and new order book assumptions. There is no change to our SOP-based target price. We maintain our Neutral rating as the project win rate needs to accelerate before its share price can re-rate.

Viz Branz Limited: Best operating margins since FY10 (OCBC)


Viz Branz Limited:
Fair value S$0.74
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.025
versus: Current price S$0.70

Best operating margins since FY10
• Continued margin improvements
• Weak 4Q ahead but not a concern
• GO still likely though dynamics altered

Viz Branz’s 3Q13 results was in-line with expectations with a decline in revenue offset by continued margin improvements due to the favourable raw material cost environment. While we lowered our FY13 projections to account for the seasonally weaker 4Q13, we expect margin improvements to persist and VB should remain on track to record a better FY13 performance in terms of PATMI growth. In addition, its growth prospects in its key China market remain decent. We leave our fair value estimate unchanged at S$0.74 and keep our BUY rating on the counter. In terms of the likelihood of a GO, we remain steadfast in our assertion that it will materialize, albeit at a later date and with a potentially different acquirer.

CapitaMall Trust: All cashed up and ready to grow (SCB)

CapitaMall Trust
PRICE as of 7 May 2013 SGD 2.38
PRICE TARGET SGD 2.60
All cashed up and ready to grow

CapitaMall Trust (CT) has SGD 800mn cash, which we expect the manager to use for acquisitions and redevelopment.
We expect CT to buy Star Vista using SGD 400mn cash in 2013, which could be 5% accretive.
Redevelopment of Funan could take place in 2014 and provide a yield on cost of 7.5%.
CT has underperformed the sector by 4% YTD, and we believe the inorganic growth opportunities are not priced in.

S-REIT: Yield is not a differentiator; buy growth (SCB)


Yield is not a differentiator; buy growth
1Q13 SREITs results wrap
 In 1Q13, retail landlords outperformed our expectations while hotel REITs saw revenue decline
 We believe valuations are not far from the peak, and we see just 10% upside from here unless interest rates stay low for a prolonged period
 New listings offer better value at close to NAV, compared to the sector P/NAV of 1.24x
 We maintain our Neutral stance on the sector. Our top picks remain CT and MCT

ASL Marine: Still positive on its outlook (OCBC)


ASL Marine:
Fair value S$0.86
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.018
versus: Current price S$0.67

Still positive on its outlook
• Results in line
• Stiffer competition
• Upbeat on the outlook

ASL Marine (ASL) reported a 26.6% YoY rise in revenue to S$144.0m and a 21.0% increase in net profit to S$9.6m in 3QFY13, such that 9MFY13 net profit accounted for about 71% of our full year estimates, within our expectations.

Pan-United : Can’t feel any big positives yet(CIMB)

Pan-United
Current S$0.94
Target S$0.90
Can’t feel any big positives yet

 1Q13 results are academic. Its near-term share price will be determined more by what PAN intends to do with its 51%stakein CXP, we believe. We think that remains a stalemate for now. All divisions are expected to perform, though still short of spectacular at this stage.

1Q13 EPS is in line, at 25% of our FY13 forecast and roughly in line with consensus. We raise our FY15 EPS by 2% after some housekeeping, while our residual-income-based target price has been adjusted down fractionally for income forecasts. Maintain Neutral as near-term potential has been priced in, in our view.

F&N, ThaiBev Rise After Proposed Cash Payout


13 MAY 2013
F&N, ThaiBev Rise After Proposed Cash Payout
By Reuters
Fraser and Neave (F&N) shares rose on Monday after the Singapore property and drinks company proposed to distribute $4.73 billion (US$3.8 billion) in cash, or $3.28 per share, to shareholders.

The proposed cash payout accounts for around 85 percent of the $5.6 billion proceeds from selling its 40 percent stake in Tiger Beer maker Asia Pacific Breweries to Dutch company Heineken NV last year.

F&N shares gained as much as 3.7 percent to $9.21, the highest since April 22. Shares of Thai Beverage surged as much as 6.4 percent to a record of $0.67. More than 84 million Thai Beverage shares were traded, 1.6 times the average full-day volume over the past 30 days.

曾淵滄專欄15.05.13:低息環境帶旺REIT


曾淵滄專欄:低息環境帶旺REIT - 曾淵滄

昨日恒指先升後跌,主因依然是受制於A股表現差、人民銀行再一次向市場抽緊銀根。很有趣,這邊廂中證監開放RQFII讓熱錢流入中國,另一邊廂人民銀行則向市場抽緊銀根,一放一收,互相配合,搞平衡,希望做到放而不濫的效果。

長實(001)昨日下跌0.7%,下跌幅度比恒地(012)、新世界(017)、合和(054)還小,可見雍澄軒事件對長實盈利的打擊不大。

Saizen REIT : 3QFY13 results hit by refinancing costs (S&P)


Saizen REIT
Price: SGD0.20
 Date: May 13, 2013

Results Review
3QFY13 results hit by refinancing costs. Saizen’s 3QFY13 gross revenue and net property income were in line with our expectations. However, due to one-off JPY0.28 bln costs related to refinancing of loans, JPY0.082 bln and JPY0.087 bln fair value loss in financial derivatives and on investment properties respectively, 3QFY13 total net loss amounted to JPY0.045 bln. Saizen refinanced four loans with two new loans, raising JPY3.80 bln. The new loans allow it to enjoy lower interest rates and rates of amortization, higher loan-to-value ratios, longer maturity dates and funds for acquisitions. Saizen’s 9.2% YoY and 12.5% YoY rises in 3QFY13 gross revenue and net property income respectively were due mainly to contribution from eight properties acquired between March 2012 and March 2013.

CSC Steel 1Q13 Results: Beat Expectations (HLG)


CSC Steel
Price Target: RM1.46 ( )
Share Price: RM1.33
1Q13 Results: Beat Expectations

Results
1Q13 reported net profit of RM17.5m beat expectations, accounting for 51.8% and 52.5% of our and consensus estimates.

Deviations
Better-than-expected sales volume; and
Slightly lower-than-expected effective tax rate of 24% vs 25% we assumed.

MAS may fly to profit by end-2014


MAS may fly to profit by end-2014
By Bilqis Bahari
bbahari@mediaprima.com.my
2013/05/15

EN ROUTE TO FINANCIAL INDEPENDENCE: Airline getting strong shareholders’ support for RM3.1 billion cash call

NATIONAL carrier Malaysian Airline System Bhd (MAS) is on track to be profitable again by end-2014, group chief executive officer (CEO) Ahmad Jauhari Yahya says.

He also said the airline is getting strong support from its shareholders for its RM3.1 billion cash call announced last November.

財技解碼:REITS合訂證券派息有別


財技解碼:REITS合訂證券派息有別
http://paper.wenweipo.com   [2013-05-15]    
 2005年至2006年間,本港地產發展商爭相將投資物業分拆房地產信託基金(REITS)上市,近期則喜分拆酒店項目上市。合和(0054)、鷹君(0041)及新世界(0017)均有此意。有別於前者,後兩者選擇以合訂證券形式上市。

REITS借貸比率有限制
 不過,合訂證券與REITS有所不同,各有利弊。一般而言,REITS限制較合訂證券為多,因而較具透明度,而合訂證券則較具彈性。REITS借貸比率及派息政策均有限制,且只可專注於投資地產物業。而合訂證券沒有借貸限制,派息較具彈性,可由信託管理人的董事會決定從營運現金流派息,分派股息可超過純利,且沒有規範業務。

Tuesday, May 14, 2013

首季獲利標青 中鋼大馬應聲漲


(吉隆坡14日訊)中鋼大馬(CSCSTEL,5094,主要板工業)首季淨利按年增長超過3倍,股價大受激勵,最高漲12仙至1.45令吉。

 中鋼大馬首季業績報捷,推動該股股價,早盤先漲10仙至1.43令吉,隨后走高至1.45令吉,漲12仙。休市時,該股收窄至1.42令吉,揚9仙,半日易手129萬8200股。

 截至下午4時,該股暫掛1.42令吉,起9仙,成交量報146萬100股。

 豐隆投銀研究指出,中鋼大馬首季淨利增長超過3倍,從原本的560萬令吉增至錄得1753萬令吉,主要因為銷量顯著增長,降低售價。低原料價格和生產成本,公司賺幅增長很大。

 儘管該公司收益有不錯表現,但該行對中鋼大馬中期前景保持謹慎態度,認為中國產量過剩的問題,仍然會有所影響。

MAS: 24 new aircrafts in 2013

MAS: 24 new aircrafts in 2013
Business & Markets 2013
Written by Janice Melissa Thean of theedgemalaysia.com  
Tuesday, 14 May 2013 14:20

KUALA LUMPUR (May 14): MALAYSIAN AIRLINE SYSTEM BHD [] (MAS) expects the delivery of 24 new aircrafts this year.

But this is not for growth, it is only for the replacement of our old aircrafts, said MAS group chief executive Ahmad Jauhari Yahya at a press briefing after its AGM today.

Most of these will be narrow-bodied planes.

盼明年達財務自主‧馬航吁股東認購附加股


盼明年達財務自主‧馬航吁股東認購附加股
Created 05/14/2013 - 17:24
(吉隆坡14日訊)馬航(MAS,3786,主板貿服組)呼吁股東踴躍認購附加股,協助公司籌得重組所需資金,期待在各積極成長策略推動下,馬航能從明年起達致財務自主地位,無須再向外求援。

馬航首席執行員阿末佐哈里在股東大會後表示,由於持有馬航約49%股權的國庫控股已答應認購所有附加股,加上雇員公積金局(EPF)也表示支持,相信附加股計劃最終可獲取令人滿意的認購率。

租戶管理良好‧桂嘉資產財測不變


租戶管理良好‧桂嘉資產財測不變
Created 05/13/2013 - 18:37
(吉隆坡13日訊)桂嘉資產管理(QCAPITA,5123,主板產業投資信托組)首季淨利按年增長0.5%、按季揚2.4%至810萬令吉,馬銀行研究認為其良好租戶管理將繼續確保收益穩定,由“守住"調高評級至“買進"。

分析員預期今明財政年租戶料將繼續租約,活躍與強勁的租戶管理與良好互動,迄今已有20%續租,今年第四季到期、佔淨利出租面積70%之Technip公司對管理口碑極佳,料將續約。

“儘管在更低平均出租率下,首季盈利仍可微揚,印證其管理租戶與成本管控之能耐,更低的維修與行政開銷與低利率成本,得以抵銷出租率下跌之頹勢。"

星狮集团宣布派息使泰国酿酒及其股价上涨


星狮集团宣布派息使泰国酿酒及其股价上涨
文: 汤森路透 (译:杨佳文) 2013年05月13日 汤森路透

在星狮集团(Fraser & Neave)宣布派发47亿3,000万(38亿美元)或每股3.28元的现金股息给股东之后,其股价于5月13日上涨。

公司于去年将其在亚太酿酒厂(Asia Pacific Breweries)40%的股份脱售给荷兰酿酒企业喜力(Heineiken NV),从而取得56亿元收益,它如今派发的现金股息占了其中的约85%。

星狮的股价上涨了3.7%至9.21元,这是自4月22日以来的最高水平。泰国酿酒(Thai Beverage Public Co)的股价则上涨6.4%至0.67元的新高。泰国酿酒的成交量超过8,400万股,为过去30天平均全天成交量的1.6倍。

Golden Agri Seen Cheap LBO After Palm Oil Drop: Real M&A


Golden Agri-Resources Ltd. (GGR), the palm oil producer with enough plantations to almost cover the Grand Canyon, is ripe for a buyout by its largest shareholder as the stock languishes 36 percent below the value of its net assets.

Tumbling palm oil prices left the world’s second-largest producer of the cooking ingredient trading at 0.64 times its book value. That’s near the lowest level since 2009 and cheaper than 97 percent of agriculture products companies, according to data compiled by Bloomberg yesterday. Indonesia’s Widjaja family, whose $8.6 billion estimated fortune includes ownership of almost half of Golden Agri, could pay a 50 percent premium for the rest of the stock and still land a bargain, said CMC Markets Singapore Pte.

Saizen REIT: Current yield presents little room for comfort (AM)


Current yield presents little room for comfort
Bearing short-term pain. Amid aggressive monetary easing measures by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) in a bid to jumpstart its stuttering economy and end deflation, the Japanese Yen has experienced substantial depreciatory pressures in recent months. The Japanese Yen has weakened from JPY/S$64.6 in May 2012 to JPY/S$80.3 currently. Due to a weakening yen, Saizen REIT will inevitably have to bear the near-term pain of a declining NAV and distributions in S$ terms.

Going full throttle on acquisitions. Saizen REIT has successfully raised new borrowings of JPY3.8bil and presently has an aggregate debt-to-total-assets ratio of 39%. Given that it has no remaining unencumbered properties, Saizen REIT has limited debt headroom at present and the focus for the REIT will be on acquisition growth in the near future. We have factored in JPY3bil of acquisitions in FY14. The acquisitions are assumed to be completed at 6.5% NPI yield.

Croesus Retail Trust: Can it acquire additional malls in tough Japanese market?

9/5/2013 – Croesus Retail Trust (CRT) claims to be the first SGX-listed Real Estate Investment Trust that owns shopping malls across the Asia Pacific, starting with Japan.

But a closer reading of the prospectus reveals that, behind the glossy headline, there is a more complicated picture.

First, revenue forecasts seem remarkably optimistic, based on our calculation of historical figures, and taking into account the ongoing fall in the value of the Japanese Yen.

Far East Hospitality Trust: 1Q13 in line (OCBC)


Far East Hospitality Trust:
Fair value S$1.01
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.060
versus: Current price S$1.120

1Q13 in line
• DPU of 1.38 S cents
• AEIs add S$15-20/night
• Decrease FV to S$1.01

Far East Hospitality Trust (FEHT) reported 1Q13 results that were in line with ours and the street’s expectations. Compared to forecast numbers in its prospectus, 1Q13 gross revenue at S$28.1m was 4.2% lower. DPU of 1.38 S cents is 3.0% higher than the 1.34 S cents forecasted, chiefly due to lower finance costs and other trust expenses.

Riverstone : Continued focus on niche products (NRA)


 Riverstone Holdings
Current Price S$0.51
Fair Value S$0.67
Continued focus on niche products

Earnings below expectation. 4Q12 net profit of RM8.4m (+6% yoy) was 25% below our expectation due mainly to the absence of reinvestment allowances. After adjusting our effective tax rate, our FY13 estimates are lower by 5%. However, we keep our FY14 numbers relatively unchanged as management reviews its capex planning for its new subsidiary, which is still able to enjoy 15 years of reinvestment incentive. Our fair value remain at S$0.67 as we raise our base from 11x PER FY13 to 12x PER, in line with the industry of 12.3x PER. Despite its share price having risen some 24% cent over the past 3 months, we maintain our Overweight rating for its 5-7% attractive yield.

Pan-United :Steady 1Q Numbers, Positive Outlook (SIAS)


Pan-United
• Intrinsic Value S$0.960
• Prev Closing Price S$0.935
Steady 1Q Numbers, Positive Outlook

Pan-United Corporation Ltd’s (Pan-U) 1Q revenue and PATMI were largely within expectation, rising 3% YoY and 8% YoY respectively to S$167m and S$10.3m. The numbers were 23.3% and 23.5% of our full year estimates and we expect 2H performance to be better than 1H.

Management is also optimistic about 2H FY13 to FY15 outlook as some of the larger public infrastructure projects will take place. Pan-U is also open to discussion on the acquisition of MIIF’s stake in CXP and we reckon that the company’s balance sheet is firm enough to finance the entire purchase using borrowings. We are leaving the FY13 projections intact as we expect the 2H numbers to be better than 1H. Upside may come from stronger than expected infrastructure flow in FY14 and FY15 and possible acquisition of MIIF’s stake in CXP. Maintain Fairly Valued with an intrinsic value of S$0.960.

Global Investments Results Review (S&P)


Global Investments Ltd.
Price: SGD0.16
Date: May 9, 2013

Results Review
Global Investments Ltd. (GIL) reported a strong 1Q13 with net profit rising 22.8% YoY, beating our expectations due to gains from sale of investments and higher-than-expected interest income.

Revenue more than doubled largely due to higher gains from sale of investments, which accounted for 54% of 1Q13 revenue. Interest income was the next largest contributor accounting for 26% of revenue. Meanwhile, expenses rose 5.9% YoY due to higher management fees given the increase in GIL’s market capitalization.

Forterra Trust: Central Plaza sale raises market confidence on property portfolio (NRA)


Forterra Trust
Current Price S$1.90
Fair Value S$2.13
Central Plaza sale raises market confidence on property portfolio

 1QFY13 NPI surged stronger than expected by 46.4% QoQ due to a sharp fall in property operating expenses at The HQ1. 1QFY13 net property income (NPI) of S$15.5m grew more than expected by 46.4% QoQ even though gross revenue grew by a modest 5.1% QoQ to S$23.3m, reflecting the maintenance of high occupancy rate of 96% (4QFY12 : 96.13%) and successful negotiation of 23 leases (new and renewals) in the core stabilized commercial portfolio at an average rental increase of 12.43% over the expiring leases.

Perennial China Retail Trust: Ride on China’s long term consumption and urbanization trend (PHillip)

Perennial China Retail Trust
Target Price (SGD) 0.67
Closing Price (SGD) 0.630
Ride on China’s long term consumption and urbanization trend

 Company Overview
Perennial China Retail Trust (“PCRT”) is Singapore’s first pure-play PRC retail development trust. Listed on the main board of SGX on 9 June 2011, PCRT has a market capitalization of approximately S$719 mn as at 4 May 2013. PCRT’s key investment lies mainly in the 2nd tier cities of China, including Shenyang, Foshan and Chengdu. PCRT also holds 10% in predominantly retail Bejing Tongzhou integrated development.

曾淵滄專欄 14.05.13:大行吹淡風益散戶


曾淵滄專欄:大行吹淡風益散戶 - 曾淵滄

上星期五,道指收市創新高,但在美國預託證券市場交易的港股,股價普遍下跌,有「春江鴨」已經在行動。結果,昨日恒指不但低開更是一路向下,午後歐洲沽盤殺到,令跌勢擴大。

其中最明顯受到歐洲沽盤影響的股份就是渣打(2888),渣打下午3時之前,股價徘徊在187元水平,下午3時之後急跌至180元水平,收市報180.8元,下跌4.79%,在大型股中,跌幅最大。

美國研究機構渾水決定沽空渣打,並出報告唱衰。一直以來,渾水戰績彪炳,但過去沽空對象皆為二三線股,這次沽空大型股,相信早已與一些國際大鱷結成聯盟,集體發難,才可能取得預定效果。

Amtek Engineering : Not out of the woods yet (DBSV)


Amtek Engineering
FULLY VALUED S$0.50
STI : 3,443.77
Price Target : 12-Month S$ 0.45 (Prev S$ 0.46)

Not out of the woods yet
• Core profit fell short on weaker margins
• Tooling sales robust but muted outlook due to uncertain end demand
• FY13/14F cut by 19%/16%, roll over PE valuation to blended FY13/14F earnings
• Maintain FULLY VALUED, TP adjusted slightly to S$0.45

Malaysia Smelting Corp - The Start Of a New Chapter?


Malaysia Smelting Corp -
Price Target:3.21
Last Price:3.40
The Start Of a New Chapter?

SMELT’s net  profit of  MYR15.1m  in  1QFY13 may  mark  a  new  start for  the Group  as  a  massive  impairment  in  FY12  may  have  capped  further losses from  subsidiary  PT  Koba  Tin.  That  said,  we  prefer  to  remain  cautious  as there is still a risk of impairment from its investment in KMR. We upgrade MSC  to  NEUTRAL  after  we  roll  over  our  1x  BV  valuation  to  FY14,  raising our FV to MYR3.21.

-  A decent start for 2013. Malaysia Smelting Corporation (SMELT) posted a net profit of MYR15.1m for 1QFY13, marginally ahead of our expectation on simple  annualisation,  and  a  substantial  improvement  both  q-o-q  and  y-o-y from  its  core  loss  of  MYR4.5m  in  4QFY12  and  a  profit  of  MYR5.7m  in 1QFY12.

大摩重申狂牛見50000點

大摩重申狂牛見50000點
【港股預測】

摩根士丹利(大摩)早於3月預測2015年港股見50000點,亞洲及新興市場股票策略部主管郭強盛(Jonathan Garner)昨日再重申這項「宇宙最牛」預測。倘大摩預測準確,不足三年內,恒指將較昨收市高出1.17倍,與03年至07年的狂牛時代不遑多讓!

他解釋,恒指每六至八年都會出現高位循環,以2007年為上一個頂計算,三年後可達5萬點,而發達國家推行極之寬鬆的貨幣政策時,對資產價格非常有利,相信股市最終可追上樓市的升幅,因為資金從樓市轉戰其他主要資產。他又稱,日本就是個極端例子,去年投資者亦不相信日股有強勁升幅。

A股IPO恐重啟 港股跌331點 金融股慘遭狂掟


A股IPO恐重啟 港股跌331點 金融股慘遭狂掟

【本報訊】聯儲局再傳退市,加上內地大小非解禁股及A股IPO重啟憂慮,投資者見高位隨即反手掟貨,港股成環球大戶提款機,在A股只調整0.2%下,恒指昨卻大挫331點,多隻中資金融股率先遭殃,平保(2318)狂瀉4.2%,海通(6837)更勁挫超過5%。分析相信,市場趁利淡消息調整,惟50日線未失守前亦難言大市轉弱勢。
記者:林 靜

市場利淡消息再湧現,《華爾街日報》報道指聯儲局已準備好退市策略,加上內地新股重臨傳聞、以及大小非解禁股有驟增迹象,恒指昨應聲下跌331點或1.4%,為逾一個月來最大跌幅,收報22989點,失守僅企穩四日的二萬三關;H指跌勢更急,報11109點,大跌238點或2.1%。全日主板成交額592億元,沽空佔9.4%或55.6億元,當中盈富基金(2800)沽空額達5.4億元,沽空率高至69%。

Monday, May 13, 2013

新工程刺激销售 產业领域好戏在后头


(吉隆坡13日讯)儘管產业股项早前已经歷一轮涨势,惟分析员认为,隨著全国大选尘埃落定,许多大兴土木的基建和发展工程都將如常上马,加上政府地段竞標陆续有来,產业领域的潜能可说是好戏在后头。

年初至今,吉隆坡產业指数(KLPI)上涨27%,大幅跑输涨势分別高达41%和53%的泰国和印尼產业指数。马银行金英投行分析员指出,大马產业股项將在大选的不確定性消散后,获得充裕的游资支撑,上涨空间仍可期。此外,大量即將上马的基建工程也料將刺激新一轮的火热產业交易。

弃守转攻迎选绩



股海探温:力之源股息再投资受看好


股海探温:力之源股息再投资受看好
Created 05/13/2013 - 13:27
1.力之源(PWROOT,7237,主板消费产品股)最近建议股息再投资计划,请问股东选择现金好还是选择再投资?

2.股息再投资对公司和股东会有什么影响?

3.力之源近期有什么利好催化剂?

4.请问力之源的最新业绩表现如何?未来业务展望和盈利能力好吗?

China Minzhong posts 5.9% rise in net profit to $51.4mil for Q3


China Minzhong posts 5.9% rise in net profit to $51.4mil for Q3
WRITTEN BY THE EDGE  
MONDAY, 13 MAY 2013 12:45

China Minzhong Food Corporation said it recorded a 5.9% rise in net profit to RMB255 million ($51.4 million) for the third quarter ended 31 March 2013 (3Q FY2013).

In 3Q, group revenue increased by 27.7% to RMB962.2 million, underpinned by better performances in both the cultivation (comprising of fresh vegetables produce) and processed (comprising of processed vegetables and other processed products) business segments.

選後覓牛蹤‧投資全攻略


選後覓牛蹤‧投資全攻略
Created 05/13/2013 - 11:16
國陣以簡單多數票保住政權,但瘋狂的游資令大馬成了外資加碼的國家,牛市行情“呼之欲出",然而,對於大馬投資者最熟悉的“戰場",究竟該如何佈局才能有效增加獲利,降低風險?

或許,國陣的政治宣言可成為投資者“按圖索驥"的藍本……

儘管首相拿督斯里納吉贏得的主要議席自63%降低到60%,是國陣有史以來第二差勁的表現,但在游資唾手可得的今天,這不再是馬股的阻力……

Johore Tin has potential to scale higher levels in near term


Johore Tin has potential to scale higher levels in near term

Johore Tin's monthly price trend staged a technical breakout of its intermediate-term overhead resistance and stayed above its intermediate-term neckline last Friday.

Its weekly price trend staged a successful technical breakout of its short-term downtrend (See Johore Tin's weekly price chart - B3:B4) and had since continued to stay above it.

Meanwhile, its daily price trend staged a technical breakout of the neckline (See Johore Tin's daily price trend - C1:C2) of its double-bottom pattern formation recorded last Friday.

Benalec set to seal two major deals

Benalec set to seal two major deals
By Sharen Kaur
sharen@mediaprima.com.my
2013/05/13

LAND RECLAMATION: Investments in Tanjung Piai project expected to exceed RM35b
Marine construction company Benalec Holdings Bhd is close to inking two major deals for its land reclamation project off Tanjung Piai in Johor, which will translate into investments exceeding RM35 billion.

Benalec, which is 52.3 per cent owned by the Leaw family, has the rights to reclaim 1,410.3ha off Tanjung Piai.

The company sealed the deal with the Johor government last September as the state wants to develop the area as an oil and gas hub.

股神巴菲特 獵食搵銀


股神巴菲特 獵食搵銀
股神巴菲特(Warren Buffett)最為食,透過投資旗艦巴郡(Berkshire Hathaway)搜購了各式各樣的飲食企業。由後悔沽得太早的麥當勞,每天都要飲個夠的可口可樂、卡夫食品出品的芝士、Oreo餅乾及吉百利等小食、再而是甜品系的雪糕連鎖店Dairy Queen以及朱古力糖果店See's Candies等等。然而,股神在大飽口福之餘,更同時為他多年來帶來了最少百多億美元計的巨額收益。

現年八十三歲的巴菲特繼續其為食本色。今年二月中,就夥拍巴西的私募基金3G Capital,聯手出資280億美元收購了亨氏食品,相信股神和其好友巴西首富萊曼,除是看中亨氏的長期穩定回報外,亨氏馳名的茄汁及焗豆等美食亦是重要考慮因素。萊曼本身亦持有美國第二大快餐店漢堡王(Burger King)及全球最大啤酒商AB In-Bev。亨氏的日常管理交由萊曼負責,股神就繼續去獵食。

大选落幕股价高攀 產业股重回基本面


大选落幕股价高攀 產业股重回基本面
隨著全国第13届大选落幕,马股的產业指数在过去一周节节攀高,显示了市场对產业领域的信心。分析员表示,在全国备受瞩目的大选告一段落后,投资者可能会重新关注產业领域的基本面。

与此同时,分析员认为,我国產业领域並没有面对泡沫形成的危机,因为在过去三年家庭收入成长良好地扶持產业价格升值。

產业指数在过去一周上涨了144.44点或12%,从5月3日的1202.67点,扬升至5月10日1347.11点;同一时间,富时大马综指则上扬77.61点或4.58%,从5月3日的1694.77点,去到5月10日的1772.38点。

大马房市 国际投资客新欢


台湾房市2012年受政策面影响,买气急冻,房市交易量比2008年金融海啸时还低。儘管2013年景气好转,房地產相对乐观,但外界也仅预期,成交量持稳,价格有机会持平或小幅成长5%以內。

劳动人口与房地產价格息息相关,台湾房屋国际资產中心媒体总监林广彦分析,日本劳动人口在1991年减少,人口红利消失,房价一跌就是20年,迄今跌了七成;西班牙的劳动人口也在2008年第三季开始下滑,2008年3月先起跌,迄今跌幅达30%;美国的劳动人口在1996年增加,房价从1994至2006年大涨300%,2008年劳动人口下降,房价也从高点摔落,迄今跌幅也达30%。

Asia Enterprises : A mark on its 40th year in steel business (NRA)


Asia Enterprises
Current Price S$0.23
Fair Value S$0.29
A mark on its 40th year in steel business

1Q13 earnings above expectation. Asia Enterprise’s (AEH) 1Q13 net profit of S$1.6m surpassed our expectation of S$1.1m, due mainly to better-than-expected sales and margins. With the improving prospects, we have raised our FY13-15 earnings forecast by 25%-36%. However, our fair value remains S$0.29, still pegged at 0.9x FY13 PBR. Given the 27% potential upside with strong balance sheet and good dividend yield, we maintain our Overweight recommendation.

Pan-United : Earnings growth to accelerate (DBSV)


Pan-United Corporation
BUY S$0.935
STI : 3,443.77
Price Target : 12-Month S$ 1.16
Earnings growth to accelerate

• 1Q13 results in line driven by BBM and CXP
• Expect construction activities to rise
• Neutral to PAN whether it increases, maintains or decreases its CXP stake
• Maintain BUY with S$1.16 TP

1Q13 earnings in line, driven by building materials and CXP port segments. 1Q13 earnings rose 8% y-oy to S$10.3m, on track to meet our full year profit forecast of S$47m. Revenue grew 3% to S$167m, in line with our S$742m revenue estimate for the year, driven by volume increases in Building Materials segment and higher utilisation at CXP port. Shipping segment shrank slightly due to lower commodities trading activity.

ASL Marine : Recovery delayed, not derailed (DBSV)


ASL Marine Holdings
BUY S$0.67
STI : 3,413.02
Price Target : 12-Month S$ 0.92 (Prev S$ 0.90)
Recovery delayed, not derailed

• 3Q13 earnings up 21% y-o-y but still misses estimates
• Slow YTD order wins not much of a concern, activity will pick up in coming quarters as yard space frees up
• FY13/14F earnings cut 9%/5% due to losses from engineering division, higher interest expenses
• But earnings recovery story still intact; maintain BUY with revised TP of S$0.92

Wilmar International : Steady outlook (DBSV)


Wilmar International
HOLD S$3.38
STI : 3,413.02
Price Target : 12 months S$ 3.72
Steady outlook

•Wilmar’s 1Q13 core earnings of US$314m (+53% y-o-y; - 22% q-o-q) were in line
•M&P performed better than expected; but was offset by weakness in Plantations and Others
•FY13F-15F earnings tweaked by 1-2% to account for higher Sugar and Oilseeds & Grains pretax, offset by weaker CPO ASP. TP remains unchanged at S$3.72

Hi-P International : Blackberry boost (DBSV)


Hi-P International
BUY S$0.775
STI : 3,413.44
(Upgrade from HOLD)
Price Target : 12-month S$ 0.88 (Prev S$ 0.71)
Blackberry boost

• 1Q13 exceeds, PATMI formed 31% of FY13F
• 5% net margin was best in seven quarters, thanks to richer product mix & efficiency
• 2Q13 to grow q-o-q; doubled FY13F/14F
• Upgrade to BUY with raised TP of S$0.88

1Q13 exceeded by big margin. Net profit more than quadrupled to S$6.9m in 1Q13, way ahead of our forecast for breakeven.

Amtek Engineering : Sorry, can you still hang on? (CIMB)

Amtek Engineering
Current S$0.50
Target S$0.50
Sorry, can you still hang on?

 Weak end demand continues to be a challenge. The company made further inroads in reducing costs and increasing automation. Dividend yields will support the share price but the company may have to consider inorganic growth options.

3Q6/13 core net profit was below our expectation, forming 13% of consensus and 15% of our forecast. 9M13 core net profit was also below at 54% of consensus and 62% of our full-year forecast. We cut FY13-15 core EPS by an average 19% given the still weak end demand. 4.4-6.2% dividend yields will limit share price downside. Maintain Neutral, with our target price lowered to S$0.50 (1.3x CY13 P/BV, peer average).

Thai Beverage : Regional F&B player in the making (DBSV)


Thai Beverage Public Co. Ltd
BUY S$0.63
STI : 3443.77
(Initiating Coverage)
Price Target : 12-Month S$ 0.80
Regional F&B player in the making

• Initiate BUY with 30% total return upside on regional F&B player in the making
• Market leader in spirits, green tea and established distribution network in Thailand
• Expect continued re-rating to global/regional peers average; potential inclusion in MSCI could be catalyst
• BUY, sum-of-parts TP: S$0.80

OSIM: Expect Stronger Subsequent Quarters (OSK)


OSIM: Expect Stronger Subsequent Quarters
 (BUY, SGD2.03, TP: SGD2.22)

OSIM reported a 13.2% increase in 1Q13 earnings of SGD25.1m on the back of unchanged sales of SGD150.6m. An interim dividend of 1.0 cent was declared. Earnings are in-line with expectations. We expect stronger subsequent quarters driven by backlog orders for uAngel as well as from the much anticipated new chair to replace uDivine. Reiterate BUY with an unchanged TP of SGD2.22.

1Q13 earnings of SGD25.1m in-line. While sales remained static for the quarter, earnings grew by 13.2% to SGD25.1m, driven by a 1.9ppt in net margins from 14.8% to 16.7%. This is on the back of an increase in gross margins as well as operating efficiencies.

Hektar REIT - Good Start To The Year


Hektar REIT - .
Price Target:1.56
Last Price:1.58
Good Start To The Year

Hektar REIT’s 1QFY13 net profit of MYR11.1m came within expectations. A DPU of 2.60 sen was declared, in line to meet our full-year FY13 DPU forecast. Contribution from its recently-acquired Kedah malls led to a 13.7% y-o-y growth in net profit. Occupancy and rental reversions were stable during the quarter. Maintain NEUTRAL with unchanged fair value of MYR1.56.

Overseas Union Enterprise 1Q13: Rolling Ahead With OUE REIT (UOBKH)


Overseas Union Enterprise
Share Price S$3.08
Target Price S$3.63
1Q13: Rolling Ahead With OUE REIT

Results came in below expectations due to exceptional items and lower-thanexpected contributions from investment properties. Look ahead to the hospitality REIT and a potential special dividend as forward catalysts, while approval for the 160,000sf serviced-apartment conversion in 6 Shenton Way will provide an acquisition pipeline. Maintain BUY with an increased target of S$3.63, factoring in a 50bp reduction in office cap rates.

Saizen REIT- Stock Update (Limtan)


SAIZEN REIT
Stock Update
S$0.20-SAREIT SP

 No wonder that Argyle Street Management, the single largest shareholder of Saizen REIT(with 8.97%) has been a persistent seller of the stock in the past few weeks.

 One off refinancing costs as well as the rapid weakening of the Japanese Yen has caused 3Q to Mar ’13 operating income to plunge 55% yoy and 74% qoq to only S$1.94mln.

 And the weakening of the Yen against S$ caused the NAV to fall from 30 cents to 25 cents as at Mar ’13.

曾淵滄專欄13.04.13:日圓貶值股難長炒


曾淵滄專欄:日圓貶值股難長炒 - 曾淵滄

美股再創歷史新高,道指更是以當日高位收市,氣勢如虹。與此同時,等待多時的RQFII終於落實了額外2,000億元人民幣的限額。2,000億元人民幣不算多,但已等待多時,現在批出來,象徵意義更重要。

因為過去這段期間,投資者不斷收到中央緊縮銀根的訊息,現在批出額外額度由境外投資者進內地買A股,說明中央在推行緊縮貨幣政策的同時,不忘人民幣國際化進程及A股的開放。

日圓大貶值,股市出現了炒日圓概念股的潮流,我不認為日圓概念股可炒很久。炒日圓概念的假設是日圓貶值,入口商可以以更低的成本從日本入貨,賺取更高的利潤。但是,像香港這種高度自由的市場,你若能賺取暴利,一定會有其他競爭者加入競爭。最後,賺取暴利者不得不減價與新的競爭者競爭。

低利率誘發債 房託派息看漲

低利率誘發債 房託派息看漲
全球央行加碼放水,熱錢充斥市場,美銀美林報告指出,若利率再下調,將吸引房託基金進行更多併購活動或發短期債券,以增加派息水平。

房託基金表現省鏡



Sunday, May 12, 2013

Onward and Upward for Yongnam Holdings



黃國英「開騷」 看好REITs濠賭股


黃國英「開騷」 看好REITs濠賭股
2013年5月12日
【明報專訊】豐盛金融資產管理董事黃國英昨日在灣仔伊館「開騷」,他表示今年看好REITs(房地產信託基金)及濠賭股,兩類股份均為「穩陣之選」,如「進攻型」投資者則可揀名牌股,當中以Prada(1913)為「股王」。不過,他認為上游工業股議價能力低,不宜沾手。

辣招不利買樓收租 領匯置富穩陣

黃國英指出,政府實施的多重「辣招」已封投資者買樓收租之門,要物色穩陣如收租的股票,以REITs最近似,尤其看好領匯(0823)及置富(0778),而且投資者可小注分階段入市,信託的物業又有專人管理。

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Return on Equity Practical Exercise



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Warren Buffett Intrinsic Value Calculation - Rule 4



Warren Buffett's 3rd rule - A stock must be stable and understandable



Warren Buffett's 2nd Rule - Understanding Capital Gains Tax



Warren Buffett's 1st Rule - What is the Current Ratio and the Debt to Equity Ratio



黄金牛市是否终结?



審計揭內銀國企「混帳」 建行農行違規貸款166億


審計揭內銀國企「混帳」
建行農行違規貸款166億
2013年5月12日
【明報專訊】中國審計署日前公布,內地13間國企及金融機構包括建設銀行、農業銀行、中移動集團及國電集團等,旗下分公司過去數年有違規貸款、亂發員工福利,或未獲批准卻先行興建項目等問題。尤其是銀行貸款予不合資格的企業,涉資數十億元(人民幣‧下同)以上,增加呆壞帳的風險。有會計師指出,國企體系龐大,分公司未必遵從總部的內部監控守則,因而引發連串問題。

國企掌控中國重要的戰略資源,如能源、電訊及銀行等行業,普通民間企業難以入場。自90年代開始,逾7萬間國企透過改組、合併等方式,將國企重新整合。不過,在龐大的規模之下,國企內部監控未夠完善。
Warren E. Buffett(沃伦•巴菲特)
Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful
别人贪婪时我恐惧, 别人恐惧时我贪婪
投资只需学好两门课: 一,是如何给企业估值,二,是如何看待股市波动
吉姆·罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)
“错过时机”胜于“搞错对象”:不会全军覆没!”
做自己熟悉的事,等到发现大好机会才投钱下去

乔治·索罗斯(George Soros)

“犯错误并没有什么好羞耻的,只有知错不改才是耻辱。”

如果操作过量,即使对市场判断正确,仍会一败涂地。

李驰(中国巴菲特)
高估期间, 卖对, 不卖也对, 买是错的。
低估期间, 买对, 不买也是对, 卖是错的。

Tan Teng Boo


There’s no such thing as defensive stocks.Every stock can be defensive depending on what price you pay for it and what value you get,
冷眼(冯时能)投资概念
“买股票就是买公司的股份,买股份就是与陌生人合股做生意”。
合股做生意,则公司股份的业绩高于一切,而股票的价值决定于盈利。
价值是本,价格是末,故公司比股市重要百倍。
曹仁超-香港股神/港股明灯
1.有智慧,不如趁势
2.止损不止盈
成功者所以成功,是因为不怕失败!失败者所以失败,是失败后不再尝试!
曾淵滄-散户明灯
每逢灾难就是机会,而是在灾难发生时贱价买股票,然后放在一边,耐性地等灾难结束
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