Saturday, May 11, 2013

恒寶驚爆疑賬拖累‧紅籌股料續遭冷落


恒寶驚爆疑賬拖累‧紅籌股料續遭冷落
Created 05/10/2013 - 17:24
(吉隆坡10日訊)恒寶全球(HBGLOB,5187,主板消費品組)因爆發賬目問題被列入PN17公司,恐在大馬股市掀起中資股賬目疑雲序幕,令投資者對紅籌股“惶惶不安"。

中資股疑賬風波蔓延至馬

恒寶全球由於外部審查師對該公司截至2012年12月31日為止的已審核財報拒絕給予意見,被列為PN17公司,成為大馬首家中資股爆發賬目問題而被列入PN17公司的案例,令海外中資股的疑賬風波蔓延至大馬。

JP 摩根: 跑赢综指股 选后9亮眼内需股


JP 摩根: 跑赢综指股 选后9亮眼内需股
Created 05/11/2013 - 10:47
(吉隆坡10日讯)考量到内需持续增长,JP摩根建议投资者持续“买入”9只由内需主导,而且表现超越富时隆综指的股项。

透过配合全国大选结束而发布的大马投资策略报告,JP摩根表示,从今年3月22日至今,这9只股已经扬升19%,大幅超越富时隆综指的9.2%增幅。

科恩马等审计报告 Borsig上市未呈申请


科恩马等审计报告 Borsig上市未呈申请
Created 05/11/2013 - 10:48
(吉隆坡10日讯)科恩马(KNM,7164,主板工业产品股)表示,仍未向新加坡交易所提呈Borsig GmbH的上市建议书。

投资者对科恩马兴趣料大减,因分析员报告中曾提及,该公司或有意将德国公司在新加坡上市。

与此同时,这项上市计划料能降低科恩目前近10亿令吉债务水平,带来重新评估的潜力。

科恩马总执行长李瑞兴表示,管理层正等待新加坡审计师的结果出炉,以便能执行上市计划。

Still Bearish on CPO?



下半年数十亿工程涌现 建筑业迎新上涨周期


下半年数十亿工程涌现 建筑业迎新上涨周期
Created 05/11/2013 - 09:05
(吉隆坡10日讯)随着全国大选尘埃落定,政府将开始大力推行各种关键大型计划,为建筑股捎来生机,迎接建筑业新一波上涨周期,前景备受分析员看好。

联昌国际投行分析员沙里占罗斯里在报告中提到,政府中期内将积极推行各项大型计划,促使他把建筑业评级从“中和”上修至“增持”,并把所有建筑股调升至“超越大市”评级。

Hyflux: Slow start to 2013 as expected (OCBC)

Hyflux:

Slow start to 2013 as expected
Hyflux Ltd reported its 1Q13 results last night, with revenue slipping 8% YoY and 38% QoQ to S$124.5m, or around 17% of our full-year forecast; net profit rose 5% YoY (though down 62% QoQ) to S$8.0m, or 10.2% of our FY13 estimate. However, we are not perturbed by the seemingly slow start as 1Q is traditionally their weakest quarter. Going forward, Hyflux remains fairly optimistic about its prospects; and will actively pursue opportunities in Asia and MENA. As results are in line, we opt to keep our estimates unchanged. Maintain HOLD with an unchanged S$1.44 fair value.

First Real Estate Investment Trust MANAGEMENT REPLY: S$1 bln AUM target achieved – now what?


Having revised its target of assets under management from S$500 mln to S$1 bln, First REIT will have to set a new goal – or face the prospect of slower growth and a complacent share price.

4/5/2013 – OCBC Research believes proposed acquisitions by First REIT have already been priced in the share price, and has maintained its HOLD rating with a target price of S$1.31.

The analyst believes valuations are not compelling at current levels.

First REIT is positive on the growing affluence of the middle-class segment in Indonesia, which will drive strong demand for quality medical services.

股价的变动因素(一)


一般来说,购买股票的利润分为两种,一是股票本身表彰的股东权利,包括股息等;另一种是透过买进卖出赚取差价。所谓的利多或利空因素就是一般人急于探究的影响股票市场价格的重点。

影响股价波动的重要因素有市场因素、行业因素、公司因素:

1. 市场因素

(一)经济景气

一个标准的经济周期通常包括扩张和收缩两个时期,它们又可以各自分解为两个阶段,因此,景气循环可以分为四个阶段:复苏、高涨、衰退和萧条。经济的景气状态是通过一系列经济指标来描述的,称为景气指标。一般而言,当经济繁荣,景气复苏时,通常是股价攀升的时侯;经济不景气是指总体经济呈下滑的发展趋势,绝大部分经济活动处于收缩或半收缩状态,表现出市场疲软、经济增长速度停滞或迟缓、许多企业破产倒闭、失业人数增加等现象。那时候,股价会重挫。

巴菲特:會計學不是科學。



巴菲特:我預期低利率的情況不會太久。


2013-0506-57金錢爆(一路漲到掛?)4-3

在波克夏股東會上,巴菲特侃侃而談現今全球投資人都在關注的幾件事


2013-0506-57金錢爆(一路漲到掛?)

ECS ICT - 1Q13 slightly below expectations


ECS ICT -
Price Target:1.22
Last Price:1.16
1Q13 slightly below expectations

Period    1Q13

Actual vs. Expectations      The 1Q13 net profit of RM6.4m was slightly below expectations and accounted for 21.2% and 20.4% of ours and the street full-year estimates respectively. Note that the group’s 1Q normally accounted for c.23% of the group’s net profit.

Dividends     No dividend was announced during the quarter.

KNM - Proposed listing of Borsig in Singapore may not materialize?


KNM -
Price Target:0.55
Last Price:0.465
Proposed listing of Borsig in Singapore may not materialize?

KNM; Hold
Price Target: RM0.55; KNMG MK

Business Times reported that KNM has not submitted any proposal for the listing of Borsig GmbH in Singapore yet though the company has the plan in mind. The company is awaiting response from the auditor which could have derailed the plan due to the huge deviation of RM49m FY12 earnings (37%) between its audited accounts and announced unaudited accounts (mainly due to impairment for its Brazilian unit), as announced recently.

Cosco Corp (S’pore): Downgrade to SELL - missed expectations (OCBC)


Cosco Corp (S’pore):
Fair value S$0.76
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.02
versus: Current price S$0.87

Downgrade to SELL - missed expectations
• Earnings down 65% YoY
• Margin pressure may continue
• Street expected to cut estimates

COSCO Corp (S’pore)’s 1Q13 revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders came in at S$733m (-25% YoY) and S$9.7m (-65% YoY) respectively. Turnover from shipyard operations, consisting of ship repair and shipbuilding, decreased by 26% YoY to S$719m in 1Q13 (1Q12: S$966m), while turnover for dry bulk shipping and other businesses increased by 8% YoY to S$13.8m (1Q12: S$12.8m). All in all, 1Q13 performance was disappointing with PATMI forming only about 9-10% of ours and consensus’ FY13F estimates. We now cut our FY13F-14F PATMI estimates by 50-60% and pare our fair value estimates to S$0.76 (previously S$0.90) on 1.3x P/B. We expect the street to do the same. Downgrade from Hold to SELL.

联委会转向 印钞难停机的秘密



PhillipCapital Weekly Market Watch 03.05.2013 -GOLD



Property buyers should consider future interest rate hikes: Khaw


胡立阳: 狄马克 “A股的章鱼帝”



苹果沉浮伤了谁



金手指:港股將見二萬七



大選後首週‧本地基金賣24億‧外資掃貨31億股票


大選後首週‧本地基金賣24億‧外資掃貨31億股票
Created 05/11/2013 - 12:55
(吉隆坡10日訊)國陣繼續執政帶動馬股本週初開市一度爆漲131點,將富時綜指強拉上1826點歷史新高,就在市場深信大選前積極賣股的本地基金即將“王者歸來"、外資將趁機套利之際,實際情況卻似完全相反。

根據交易所數據,本地基金在大選結束後首5個交易日內不僅未重投馬股懷抱,反而趁外資推高股市時加速賣股,期間淨賣約24億令吉股票,反觀外資繼續瘋狂橫掃馬股股票,單週買走31億令吉股票,相等於2012全年137億令吉外資淨買額的22.6%。

Friday, May 10, 2013

JP摩根:大選落幕‧內需導向股看漲


JP摩根:大選落幕‧內需導向股看漲
Created 05/10/2013 - 11:19
(吉隆坡9日訊)國際大行JP摩根建議投資者在選舉落幕後,留意內需導向股項。

JP摩根認為,雖然國陣勝選後馬股至今上揚了4.7%,但漲勢仍落後東盟同儕,因此依然具備補漲空間。

該行補充,反對黨質疑選舉成績,計劃展開大型抗議活動,雖可能加劇馬股波動,卻也帶來交易良機。

JP摩根指出,馬股成長誘因包括內需成長、推行大型發展計劃等,建議投資者出走避險的“安全地帶",轉進表現落後的“內需導向"選擇。

Is it time to sell StarHub?


Is it time to sell StarHub?
By Kang Wan Chern
Shares of telecommunications service provider StarHub fell 2.7% to $4.60 on May 10 following its earnings report and dividend announcement for the first three months of FY2013. The shares had hit a 52-week high of $4.73 on May 8, and are up 21.4% since the start of the year.

For the three months ended March 31, 2013, StarHub’s revenues were actually down by 1.8% to $580 million compared to the same period a year before, when the company announced a larger quantity and value of equipment sold. Meanwhile, earnings edged up 3.2% yoy, ending the quarter at $91.2 million.

PWROOT展望正面


PWROOT展望正面
Created 05/10/2013 - 17:25
(吉隆坡10日訊)PWROOT公司(PWROOT,7237,主板消費品組)憑藉股息再投資計劃和良好業績表現重新返回市場聚光燈下,分析員表示其具備業績表現改善、出口前景強勁等催化因素,以及技術面出現牛市的逆轉模式,短期股價表現可期。

股息再投資提供進場機會

肯納格研究表示,PWROOT公司股息再投資計劃將為股東提供廉價進場機會,整體計劃正面,相信這將有利於改善股票流動性,更重要的是讓集團可保留資本作為進一步增長和擴張計劃。

寻找更多收购目标 贺达产托提升吉打新广场


寻找更多收购目标 贺达产托提升吉打新广场
Created 05/10/2013 - 12:43
(八打灵再也9日讯)贺达产托(Hektar,5121,主板产业信托股)将提升吉打两间新收购购物广场,同时寻求更多收购目标,增加旗下资产。

贺达产托执行董事兼总财务长莎莉拉向《星报》表示,公司将会效仿柔佛WetexParade购物广场的资产提升计划,为该广场成功重塑品牌。

她说,根据研究,双溪大年的Central Square的人流量约40万,是Wetex Parade的一半。

拟增Landmark NLA

评语“看好” 杰富瑞开始追踪马股


评语“看好” 杰富瑞开始追踪马股
Created 05/10/2013 - 12:43
(吉隆坡9日讯)美国大型全球证券和投资银行集团———杰富瑞(Jefferies),开始追踪大马股市,并给予“看好”的评语。

此外,该券商也预测,在我国大选结束后,富时隆综指将与其他亚洲股市一样,将扮演“落后追赶”的角色。

杰富瑞股票策略全球主管肖恩达比(Sean Darby)在报告中表示,建议投资者把投资从印尼转移至大马,因为后者在过去几年的股市表现,都落后区域竞争者。

Pantech shares remain attractive

Pantech shares remain attractive
Insider Asia

Written by Insider Asia  
Friday, 10 May 2013 10:45

PANTECH GROUP Holdings Bhd (80 sen) remains firmly on track to achieve double digit earnings growth for the next few years. Currently trading at well below average valuations for the broader market, at only 6.4 times our estimated earnings for 2014 financial year ending February (FY14), we believe there is good potential for handsome gains.

The company’s recently released earnings results for FY13 were right in line with our expectations. Top line sales were up 46% to RM637.2 million, with growth reported from both the trading and manufacturing arms.

Silver lining emerges for airlines


Silver lining emerges for airlines
Features

Written by Isabelle Francis of The Edge Malaysia  
Wednesday, 08 May 2013 00:00

THE combination of rising competition, cyclicality and unpredictable fuel costs have made it extremely difficult for most airlines to consistently make money. However, a silver lining has emerged to make airline stocks more palatable.

Given the challenges facing the sector in the last few years, typical investors who look for returns — be it in the form of capital gain or dividend payments — tend to minimise their exposure in airline counters.

QCT poised to refinance RM117m facility


QCT poised to refinance RM117m facility
Business & Markets 2013

Written by Zatil Husna of theedgemalaysia.com  
Friday, 10 May 2013 10:24

KUALA LUMPUR: QUILL CAPITA TRUST [] (QCT) has obtained a commitment from a financial institution to refinance a RM117 million debt, which is expiring at the end of the third quarter in the financial year ending Dec 31.

According to presentation slides of the company, the refinancing of the medium-term note (MTN) would push the maturity of the debt to 2018.

索羅斯炒金匯未輸過


索羅斯炒金匯未輸過
國際金融巨鱷索羅斯「沽空」戰績彪炳,早於九二年狙擊英鎊一役,廣被外界譽為「打垮英倫銀行的人」而聲名大噪,以他為首的對沖基金集團在九七年狙擊亞洲貨幣,不少亞洲國家至今仍心有餘悸。已屆八十三歲齡的索羅斯寶刀未老,今年其傳聞的沽空名單包括日圓、澳元以至英鎊,似乎均有斬獲,連投資黃金時機亦如有神助,足證其投資眼光如炬。

曾狙擊英鎊港元
索羅斯近年得意之作,莫過於及時沽金獲利離場。索羅斯有先見之明,認為黃金避險資產地位不再,旗下索羅斯基金管理於去年第四季勁減黃金交易所買賣基金SPDR Gold Trust持倉百分之五十五,剛好避過今年金價大跌一劫。

索羅斯狂賺經港噬澳元


索羅斯狂賺經港噬澳元
之前誤傳死訊的國際投資者索羅斯再顯神威,澳洲傳媒報道,索羅斯在本周澳洲儲備銀行公布議息結果前,透過包括香港在內的亞洲三地的外匯交易商沽空澳元,各下注10億美元,是史上最大澳元沽盤之一,結果澳洲央行減息觸發澳元急插,每宗交易獲利1,900萬美元,三宗交易合計令他在短短36小時內大賺近6,000萬美元(約4.68億港元)

金管局發言人稱,港元市場最近一直穩定及有序,並無察覺異常情況。金管局會一如既往,繼續密切監察港元市場。

近期索羅斯沽空日圓、英鎊及澳元傳聞此起彼落,上月又指中國影子銀行問題與美國次按危機相似,金融巨鱷的唱淡本色再度上身,有市場擔心下個狙擊目標會否盯上港元及人民幣,亦有分析指沽空港元機會不大。

Ascott Residence Trust: Acquisition of assets in China and Japan (OCBC)


Ascott Residence Trust:
Fair value S$1.35
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.083
versus: Current price S$1.410

Acquisition of assets in China and Japan
• Raising Asia exposure
• Effect of Yen depreciation
• Keep FV of S$1.35

Ascott Residence Trust (ART) has entered into conditional agreements to acquire three prime serviced residences in China and a portfolio of 11 rental housing properties in Japan for S$287.4m at an EBITDA yield of 5.4% on a pro forma basis for FY12.

AAREIT: T.O.P Way Ahead of Schedule (OSK)


AAREIT: T.O.P Way Ahead of Schedule
(BUY, SGD1.78, TP: SGD1.90)

AAREIT announced that it received the Temporary Occupation Permit (TOP) for Phase Two of 20 Gul Way on 7 May. Although we had expected early completion for this phase, the announcement is a pleasant surprise as it beats our expected date by two months. We maintain our positive view on AAREIT as it is set to announce plans for Phase Three of 20 Gul Way in the near future.

Additional income due to earlier-than-expected completion.
Phase Two of the 20 Gul Way development comprising c. 488,247 sq ft has been pre-leased to CWT Limited for up to five years, with an annual escalation of 2%. The TOP for this development was obtained approximately seven months ahead of schedule and within budget. Due to the early completion, rental payments will commence on 7 July, giving AAREIT two extra months of income (c. SGD1.1m above our previous forecast).

Singapore Post: Still a haven for yield seekers (OCBC)


Singapore Post:
Fair value S$1.23
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.06
versus: Current price S$1.29

Still a haven for yield seekers
• Results in line
• Margins under pressure
• Decent dividend yield

Singapore Post (SingPost) reported a 25.0% YoY rise in revenue to S$182.5m but saw a 14.6% drop in net profit to S$26.1m in 4Q13, bringing full year net profit to S$136.5m, accounting for about 94% of our full year estimate.

OSIM International: 1Q13 results within expectations (OCBC)


OSIM International:
Fair value S$2.21
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.06
versus: Current price S$2.03

1Q13 results within expectations
• 1Q13 PATMI grows 13.2% YoY
• Interim dividend of 1 S cent declared
• Remains a BUY

OSIM International (OSIM) reported a 13.2% YoY jump in its 1Q13 PATMI to S$25.1m despite a mild 0.4% increase in revenue to S$150.6m. This formed 25.9% and 22.7% of our FY13 forecasts, respectively. Results were within our expectations as we foresee further contribution from its recently launched uAngel Sofa-Tranzformer and upcoming new high-end massage chair launch (around Jul period).

Yongnam Holdings: Positive NDR affirms our conviction BUY (MKE)


Yongnam Holdings
Buy (unchanged)
Share price: SGD0.315
Target price: SGD0.45 (unchanged)
Positive NDR affirms our conviction BUY

High interest level in this Asian infrastructure play. Our recently concluded non-deal roadshow (NDR) in Singapore drew high levels of interest from institutional fund managers. The Asian infrastructure theme was of relevance, given the unprecedented boom and Yongnam represents a high quality play, given its regional market leading position in structural steel and strutting.

Overseas Union Enterprise : 1Q13 results a non-event; going ahead with REIT plan (CIMB)


Overseas Union Enterprise
Current S$3.14
Target S$3.53
1Q13 results a non-event; going ahead with REIT plan

 In the 1Q13 earnings call, management clarified a few key issues: 1) the rise in admin expenses was largely one-off,2) principal approval to partially convert 6 Shenton Way into a serviced apartment has been obtained, and 3) it plans to go ahead with the REIT plan.

We believe investors will be prepared to look past lower rental income in the near term for asset recycling upside. We cut our FY13-15 core EPS by 1-15% as we removea part of rental income for6 Shenton Way from our estimates. Maintain Outperform and target price(still a 20% RNAV discount) as this impact is balanced out by our new valuation estimate for the planned serviced apartment.

Hi-P International : Back in the game (CIMB)

Hi-P International
Current S$0.77
Target S$0.86
Back in the game

 Despite an impairment loss from a fire at one of its factories, Hi-P reported better-than-expected 1Q13 results as its product mix improved and material costs fell. The outlook has turned sunny once again and we expect significant upward earnings revisions by the market.

1Q13 core net profit was 47% of consensus FY13 numbers and 48% of ours. Given the outperformance and more upbeat guidance, we bump up our FY13-15 forecasts by 102% on average and revert to a target CY14 P/E of 14x, the 3-year average (prev. 0.9x P/BV). Our target price rises from S$0.64 to S$0.86. We upgrade Hi-P from Underperform to Outperform, with these results being a potential catalyst.

COSCO Corp 1Q13: From Bad to Worse (UOBKH)


COSCO Corp
Share Price S$0.87
Target Price S$0.88
.1Q13: From Bad to Worse

Results were well below expectations on: a) lower shipbuilding and shiprepair revenues, b) lower sale of scrap materials, c) a forex loss vs a gain previously, and d) higher interest expense. Outlook remains challenging and valuations are expensive. Maintain SELL, with our target price tweaked marginally from S$0.86 to S$0.88, based on 1.5x P/B.

Results
• From bad to worse. COSCO Corp’s (COSCO) 1Q13 net profit of S$9.7m was well below expectations. Net profit declined by 65% yoy because of: a) a 25% fall on lower turnover.

Wilmar International : 2Q results may be weaker qoq (CIMB)


Wilmar International
Current S$3.38
Target S$3.74
2Q results may be weaker qoq

 We came away from Wilmar’s post-results briefing with the notion that its oilseed crushing and refining margins may weaken qoq as more South American soybeans arrive in China in May/Jun and new palm refining capacities come on stream in Indonesia.

That said, lower commodity prices will continue to benefit its consumer products, value-added downstream businesses and sugar refining divisions. We are keeping our earnings forecasts, SOP-based target price and Outperform rating. The recovery of earnings in 2013 could catalyse the stock.

曾淵滄專欄 10.05.13:好快又有熱錢湧港


曾淵滄專欄:好快又有熱錢湧港 - 曾淵滄

前晚美股再創新高,看來是越升越有。昨日港股也跟着高開,但很快就反升為跌。中國政府公佈的4月全國居民消費價格指數(CPI)升幅為2.4%,被指高於預期,於是A股下跌,港股也只好跟着跌。還好,恒指跌幅並不算大,多隻恒指成份股仍然上升,可以說是個別發展。

滙控(005)連升了11日,其於2008年金融海嘯時跌破100元的紅底價,至今仍然沒有機會重上該價位。2009年11月曾經反彈至98.25元,但就差那麼一點點,依然是跨不過去,希望這一次靠歐、美、日狂印鈔票,可以把滙控股價推回100元以上。

電盈搵巴菲特打救?


電盈搵巴菲特打救?
http://paper.wenweipo.com   [2013-05-10]

 香港文匯報訊(記者 黃子慢)電訊盈科(0008)及香港電訊(6823)昨日舉行股東會,有小股東在會上建議管理層,邀請美國股神巴菲特(見圖)入股,主席李澤楷亦一臉正經的表示會考慮,又指管理層不時與有質素的基金投資者會面。

 手持近4,000億港元現金的巴菲特,會否有興趣投資電盈可能真的要問巴菲特,但小股東對8號仔的股價表現依然耿耿於懷。

Thursday, May 9, 2013

Power Root (“PWRT”) Back in the limelight


Power Root (“PWRT”) Back in the limelight
Price Target : 2.00
Last Price : 1.87

INVESTMENT MERIT

Dividend Reinvestment Plan (“DRP”) provides a cheaper entry opportunity! Power Root announced a recurrent DRP that will allow shareholders to have the option to reinvest their cash dividends in new ordinary shares at a discount (no more than 10% discount to 5-day VWAP). We are positive on this new development, as we believe that the DRP would not only enable the Group to improve liquidity, but more importantly, it allows the Group to conserve its capital for further growth and expansion.

KLCC產业信託重新上市大涨


(吉隆坡9日讯)KLCC產业信託(KLCC,5235SS,主板房產信託股)週四以我国首只合股房產信託股(stapled REIT)重新上市交易,復牌首日即大涨6%。

KLCC產业甫开市首宗交易的2900股,以7.45令吉易手,比停牌前最后闭市价有20仙的溢价。 隨后稍微收窄涨幅至全天最低7.43令吉,该股走势即一路走高,最高做到7.75令吉,全天在涨势中交易。闭市以7.68令吉掛收,上涨0.43令吉或5.93%,进入上升榜第6位,但成交量不高,有304万股。

KLCC產业信託首席执行员哈欣瓦希表示,如今股东可分別拥有KLCC產业的股票,以及KLCC產业信託的单位,都同时在KLCC產业信託的名下交易。

Maybulk to ride on turnaround

Maybulk to ride on turnaround
Business & Markets 2013

Written by Shalini Kumar of theedgemalaysia.com  
Thursday, 09 May 2013 09:37

KUALA LUMPUR: MALAYSIAN BULK CARRIERS BHD [] (Maybulk) could be one of the biggest beneficiaries of the turnaround in the bulk shipping market, according to a HwangDBS Research report yesterday.

Despite bulk markets starting off poorly this year, the research firm believes that the market will inch towards an inflection point in the second half of this year (2H 2013).

Perennial China Retail Trust: Improving operationally (DBSV)


Perennial China Retail Trust
BUY S$0.635
STI : 3,383.16
Price Target : 12-Month S$ 0.84
Improving operationally

• Results underpinned by earn-out deed – in line
• Performance q-o-q shows signs of operational stabilisation, 2H outlook lifted by higher take up and new mall openings
• Maintain BUY, TP $0.84

Highlights
Results supported by income top-up. PCRT’s 1Q13 distribution income of S$10.9m was within expectations, largely coming from the earn-out support as assets are still in ramp up stage. This translates to a DPU of 0.95Scts. On a q-o-q basis, performance of the Shenyang assets improved, chalking up a net profit of S$0.5m vs $2.7m loss in 4Q12.

Malaysian Bulk Carriers : Catch the bottom (DBSV)


Malaysian Bulk Carriers
BUY RM1.59
KLCI : 1,776.73
(Reinstating Coverage)
Price Target : 12-Month RM 2.10
Catch the bottom

Improving supply-demand dynamics to drive turnaround with timely vessel acquisition
POSH listing an impending catalyst
Reinstate coverage with BUY rating and RM2.10 TP

Riding on turnaround of bulk shipping market. The bulk shipping market will inch towards an inflection point in 2H13. Ship-owners are barely breaking even now at the current depressed charter rates, which have plunged 70% since 2010. Meanwhile, new deliveries will drop as orders for new bulk carriers are estimated to comprise only 5% of the global fleet in 2014 (vs 77% in 2008). Coupled with still-healthy demand thanks to the relatively resilient Asian economies, MBC may be one of the largest beneficiaries of the turnaround in the bulk shipping market.

Hektar REIT : A Strong Start To The Year (CIMB)


Hektar REIT
PRICE RM1.56
A Strong Start To The Year

 Results highlights
• Above expectations; we reiterate Buy. Hektar REIT's 1Q13 core net profit of RM11.1m was above expectations, at 26.9% and 25% of our and consensus full year forecasts respectively. Hektar announced a first interim DPU of 2.6 sen, which is in line with our full-year DPU estimate of 10.8 sen. We raised our FY13 earnings forecast by 5% after increasing our average rental reversion assumptions which increased our DDM-based target price to RM1.75. We maintain our Buy recommendation on Hektar. We continue to like Hektar due to its above-industry-average dividend yields of 7.2%. Furthermore, Hektar's current unit price of RM1.56 and NAV/unit of RM1.49 imply a premium P/NAV of 1.05x, which remains significantly lower than the average of 1.5x P/NAV for the larger retail REITS in Malaysia.

Singapore Post: A Good Yield Stock, But Too Expensive (MKE)


Singapore Post
Hold (unchanged)
Share price: SGD1.29
Target price: SGD1.28 (from SGD1.21)
A Good Yield Stock, But Too Expensive

 Results in line. SingPost announced its 4QFY3/13 results yesterday. Despite the strong 25% revenue growth, net profit dropped by 15% to SGD26m mainly due to intellectual property rights write-off of SGD5.7m. On full-year basis, net profit dropped by 4% to SGD136m, in line with our estimate of SGD134m. We hold our view that SingPost’s transformation is not likely to result in material bottom line growth in short term. As a yield stock, current 4.8% dividends yield looks unattractive. We maintain our HOLD rating but change our TP to SGD1.28 as we roll forward our valuation base to FY3/14.

Container Shipping: Rates And Share Price Are Bottoming Out Simultaneously, Creating Buying Opportunities (UOBKH)


Container Shipping
Rates And Share Price Are Bottoming Out Simultaneously, Creating Buying Opportunities

AE rates have fallen close to the cash breakeven level, but recent slot utilisation improvement offers firm support until the next rate increase. The US$200/FEU increase in TP contractual rates has resulted in better profitability on TP routes. Rates and valuations are bottoming out simultaneously, creating a buying opportunity. Maintain OVERWEIGHT and BUY on CSCL, OOIL and NOL.

Keppel REIT: Initiate at OW; for keeps (Barclays)


Keppel REIT
Price Target SGD 1.70
Price (02-May-2013) SGD 1.49
Initiate at OW; for keeps

Keppel REIT (KREIT) is our top pick in the Singapore REIT (SREIT) sector. We expect the prime office market to turn, which should increase KREIT’s yield sustainability beyond its income protection period (2016). Distribution-in-specie (DIS) of KREIT units by key shareholder, Keppel Corp, should also raise its investability to a level rivalling CCT (OW) and other large-cap SREITs, which, coupled with its best-in-class prime office portfolio, renders its above-peers’ 5.3% yields attractive. We initiate with an Overweight rating and a 12-month price target of S$1.70, which is based on a dividend discount model. We recommend switching into KREIT from CapitaMall Trust (EW), which trades expensively on a 2013E 4.3% yield and 1.4x P/B.

Hi-P International: Singapore's Proxy To BlackBerry (OSK)


Hi-P International: Singapore's Proxy To BlackBerry
 (BUY, SGD0.755, TP: SGD0.84)

Following the successful launch of the BlackBerry Q10, we are now confident on BlackBerry’s revival, which in turn greatly benefits Hi-P. With orders coming from both Apple and BlackBerry, we expect Hi-P’s excess capacity to be filled, delivering strong results from 2Q onwards. Upgrade to BUY, with a higher TP of SGD0.84 based on 14x FY13 P/E (-1 S.D. three-yr historical forward P/E).

The revival of BlackBerry. While we previously argued that it was still uncertain whether the demand for BlackBerry’s products was firmed as sales of the BlackBerry Z10 (the touchscreen phone) had started to slow – and it never really took off in the US – we now believe that the Q10 (the keyboard phone) will become a success thanks to the support from diehard QWERTY fans as well as from corporate customers that emphasise on security.

Cosco Corp: Big Earnings Miss (MKE)


Cosco Corp
Sell (unchanged)
Share price: SGD0.87
Target price: SGD0.73 (unchanged)
Big Earnings Miss

Very weak set of results, maintain Sell. Big earnings miss in 1Q13 results with reported revenue of SGD733.0m (-25% YoY, -13% QoQ) and PATMI of SGD9.7m (-65% YoY, -59% QoQ). Net profit made up only 9% of our and 10% of consensus’ full-year forecast. Shipbuilding outlook remains bleak with margins expected to deteriorate further into the year. Maintain Sell and TP of SGD0.73 pegged to 1.3x trough P/BV.

Still all about defensive, stability and yield (DBSV)


Still all about defensive, stability and yield
We maintain our view that the low interest rate, tame inflation and ample liquidity environment with a further slowing to the already tepid global economic recovery should send liquidity inflows into defensive and yield plays while cyclical stocks underperform. This trend should continue until the economic data trend starts to show a pick-up in manufacturing activity.

1. Yield - We are selective on S-REITs after the sector’s strong performance. We prefer those with (i) stronger earnings growth potential or (ii) potential to deliver earnings surprises. Our S-RIETs picks are PCRT, MGCCT and Cambridge.

紅籌透視:中海油績優 逢低買入


紅籌透視:中海油績優 逢低買入
http://paper.wenweipo.com   [2013-05-09]     我要評論(0)
大唐金融集團
 中國海洋石油(0883)截至2012年底,期內錄得收入按年增長2.8%至2476.3億元;純利按年倒退9.3%至636.91億元,每股盈利1.43元,2011年為1.57元;派末期息0.32港元;2011年為0.28港元。期內公司錄得油氣銷售收入按年增2.9%至1947.74億元;其中原油銷售收入按年增2.9%至1818.25億元;天然氣銷售收入按年增3%至129.49億元。

 2013年首季業績:油氣銷售收入為553.1億元,同比上升13.3%;資本支出總額為148.0億元人民幣,同比上升53.5%(包括尼克森的資本支出18.2億元)。平均實現油價為110.29美元/桶,同比下降8.7%;平均實現氣價為5.79美元/千立方英尺,同比下降1.5%。

曾淵滄專欄 09.05.13:港交所趁壞消息買


曾淵滄專欄:港交所趁壞消息買 - 曾淵滄

自從《人民日報》於4月29日罕有地發表兩篇文章談股市之後,內地股市的表現也相當不錯,滬綜指回升至2200點之上,海外大行也開始改變過去唱空的立場,反過來大談RQFII可能放寬。

港交所(388)今年首季業績差強人意,昨日股價逆市下跌,但我認為可以趁壞消息買。新股上市需要一些時間來安排,香港股市剛剛從谷底回升,相信到了今年第三季,新股上市會增加;加上今年首季股市的表現也不佳,如果股市繼續反彈,成交亦會增加。港交所是一家開支固定的企業,經營成本變化不大,因此只要新股上市增加、大市成交增加,利潤會大幅上升。

金群利IPO 筹资1.3亿


(吉隆坡8日讯)森美兰產业发展商--金群利集团(Matrix Concepts)將通过首次公开售股(IPO),在大马交易所主板掛牌上市,筹集1亿3750万令吉。

金群利集团的IPO涉及公开发售6250万新股,以及大股东献售3750万股,售价为每股2.20令吉。

在新股发售活动中,其中1000万新股供公眾认购、880万新股让符合资格的董事、雇员和商业伙伴认购,剩余4370万新股则將私下配售予特定投资者;而大股东献售活动中,其中3250万股將配售予土著投资者,剩余500万股则將私下配售予特定投资者。

Is Malaysian Growth Sustainable?



Wednesday, May 8, 2013

MAS-OR closes at 12% discount to share price


MAS-OR closes at 12% discount to share price
Business & Markets 2013

Written by Cindy Yeap of theedgemalaysia.com  
Wednesday, 08 May 2013 10:17

KUALA LUMPUR: MALAYSIAN AIRLINE SYSTEM BHD []’s (MAS) rights entitlement (MAS-OR) closed sharply lower at 10 sen — 42.9% below its reference price of 17.5 sen in heavy trade on its maiden trading day yesterday. This happened as the underlying MAS shares fell 7.4% or 3 sen to 37.5 sen as investors cashed in on profits after the market rally on Monday.

“There is value [on MAS-OR and MAS underlying shares] at current levels relative to our target price and some clients have taken positions. But it is still early to tell whether there is a good arbitrage opportunity on MAS-OR,” said Maybank Investment Bank’s (Maybank-IB) aviation analyst Mohshin Aziz, who has a “buy” call and 46 sen target price on MAS.

MSC to be more cautious in overseas investments


MSC to be more cautious in overseas investments
Business & Markets 2013

Written by Afiq Isa of theedgemalaysia.com  
Wednesday, 08 May 2013 10:29

KUALA LUMPUR: After a bitter lesson in Indonesia last year, Malaysia Smelting Corp Bhd (MSC) will ensure a disciplined and vigorous investment process prior to making an investment decision overseas.

Chairman Norman Ip Ka Cheung said the potential tin resources around the world are located mostly in jurisdictions where governments and communities are seeking greater custody of their mineral wealth.

Catch this laggard


Catch this laggard
Business & Markets 2013
Written by Maybank IB Research  
Wednesday, 08 May 2013 10:57

QL RESOURCES BHD []
(May 7, RM3.13)

Maintain buy at RM3.07 with a target price of RM3.50: Higher production cost and the depressed selling prices of eggs in Peninsular Malaysia have spoilt an otherwise decent 2013 financial year ended March (FY13).

Far East Hospitality Trust declares DPU of 1.38 cents for Q1, 3% above forecast


Far East Hospitality Trust declares DPU of 1.38 cents for Q1, 3% above forecast

FEO Hospitality Asset Management, the manager of Far East Hospitality Real Estate Investment Trust (Far East H-REIT), and FEO Hospitality Trust Management, as trustee-manager of Far East Hospitality Business Trust (Far East H-BT), announced that Far East Hospitality Trust (Far East H-Trust) has achieved income available for distribution of $22.1 million for the three months ended 31 March 2013 (1QFY13) against its forecast of $21.7 million. The REIT manager has declared a Distribution per Stapled Security for 1QFY13 of 1.38 cents, which is 3% above the forecast of 1.34 cents.

Wilmar says Q1 profit gains 23% on oilseed earnings


Wilmar says Q1 profit gains 23% on oilseed earnings
WRITTEN BY BLOOMBERG  
WEDNESDAY, 08 MAY 2013 09:56

Wilmar International, the world’s biggest palm oil processor, said its first-quarter profit gained 23% as earnings at its oilseeds unit rebounded.

Net income was US$315.4 million ($388.7 million) in the three months ended March 31, from US$255.9 million  a year earlier, the Singapore- based company said today in a statement. That compares with the US$296.5 million average estimate of three analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. Sales decreased 2.6% to US$10.2 billion.

Warren Buffett: Stocks Will Go a 'Lot Higher' Over Time



KNM: No proposal on German unit’s IPO yet


KNM: No proposal on German unit’s IPO yet
By Sharen Kaur
sharen@mediaprima.com.my
2013/05/08

KUALA LUMPUR: KNM Group Bhd has not submitted any proposal to list Borsig GmbH on the Singapore Stock Exchange, said its managing director Lee Swee Eng.

This may dampen investor appetite for KNM shares, which were boosted by recent analysts’ reports that the company would be listing its German unit in Singapore.

Such a listing may potentially lower KNM’s current debt levels of about RM1 billion and trigger a re-rating on the stock.

傑出財情:集裝箱航運 供過於求


傑出財情:集裝箱航運 供過於求

中海集運(02866)宣布,以6.83億美元(約合42.48億元人民幣)向現代重工業訂造5艘集裝箱船,刺激股價急升超過一成,昨收報2.09元。據其公告指出,訂造這5艘集裝箱船,是為積極推進「大船、大合作」發展戰略,調整船隊結構、擴增運力規模、發揮規模成本優勢及提升綜合競爭力。

集裝箱航運市場今年的運力增速仍將超過需求增速,市場仍處於供過於求狀態。中海集運去年共有兩艘14,100TEU和4艘4,700TEU新船交付使用,現時再訂造5艘18,400TEU新船,令人擔心會否令運力過剩進一步惡化。

四大內銀需撲萬五億填氹太


四大內銀需撲萬五億填氹太

外匯局堵截熱錢投機人民幣升值,市場預期內銀需要大量吸納外幣存款來符合新規定,當中東方匯理預期,四大行需要吸納近2,000億美元(約1.56萬億港元)外幣存款,人民幣匯價無可避免受壓。但昨日人民幣匯價反彈,本港銀行人民幣拆息顯著抽高,渣打隔夜人民幣拆息更急漲1.45厘至2.3厘。
人幣反彈 拆息抽升

截至去年底,四大行外幣貸存比率已超過外匯局的75%規定,東方匯理表示,相信有關比率的加權平均值達105%,同時截至今年三年底,整個內地銀行業的有關比率估計更高達171%,預期內銀短期內將有大量外幣買盤湧現,僅四大行需補充外幣存款或已達1,980億美元,數周內人民幣無可避免受壓。

Singapore Market Strategy : No cheap defensives left—but still the best choice? (CS)


Singapore Market Strategy
No cheap defensives left—but still the best choice?

● Our attempt to find an inexpensive (index relative P/E less than five-year average) defensive (beta of monthly returns of less than 0.8) in SG has unfortunately failed; as any investor in the market might have guessed post the recent stock rally. There are a few: CD, MRT, JM, SIA—with relative valuations still less than five-year highs.

● Expanding valuations for the defensives have raised much concern. In our earlier note, we had highlighted how equity risk premiums in SG are now below average, even without lowering long-term growth assumptions (over 2007/08)—increasing downside risks.

MIIF : Maintain HOLD on limited capital upside (AM)


Macquarie International Infrastructure Fund
LAST CLOSE: S$0.615
FAIR VALUE: S$0.660
Maintain HOLD on limited capital upside

 Divestment resolution approved. MIIF has obtained its shareholder approval for the proposed divestment of its 47.5% stake in Taiwan Broadband Communications(TBC)to Asian Pay Television Trust (APTT) on 30 April. Unitholders will be entitled to MIIF APTT units in proportion to the number of issued shares held as at the Record date of 9 May. The ex‐entitlement date falls on 7 May and APTT units are expected to commence trading on 29 May.

 APTT has an indicative yield of 7.29-8%. According to its preliminary prospectus, APTT’s initial public offering comprises 1.44bil units. The indicative price range was set between S$0.92 and S$1, representing a projected FY13 yield of 7.29-8%.

Sell in May港股唔好Play



拒做尚德白武士 股神開聲比亞迪漲


【本報訊】股神畢菲特(Warren Buffett)在股東大會上,再一次點石成金,他表態續撐電動車股比亞迪(1211),刺激該股發力開車,A股更大升一成至停板;相反,他否認收購破產光伏股尚德,拖累太陽能板塊逆市捱沽。
記者:鄭柏齡

上周末,畢菲特旗下投資旗艦巴郡在美國加州奧馬哈(Omaha)舉行一年一度的股東大會,按照慣例,畢菲特在會上發言及接受提問,吸引全球逾3.5萬名投資者到當地「朝聖」。

指比亞迪三年調整快完
巴郡在2008年入股內地新能源汽車生產商比亞迪,現時仍持有約一成股權。雖然比亞迪去年盈利大幅退倒九成,但股神仍然力撐。

IPO Watch: Croesus Retail Trust (“CRT”)

06 MAY 2013
 IPO Watch: Croesus Retail Trust (“CRT”)
By Mr.IPO


CRT is offering 229.118m Units at $0.93 per unit for an IPO on the Singapore Exchange. The prospectus is here.
It is the first retail business trust with properties in Japan to be listed in Singapore. The IPO will close on 8 May 2013, 12pm and be listed on 10 May 2013 at 2pm. 207.613m will be for placement and 21.505m for the public.

Business Trusts Versus REITs
CRT is offered under the business trust structure. While previously I have been cautious on business trust structures, I think my perception has since “improve slightly” as there is no reason for Sponsors not to stick to what they have “promised” unless something detrimental happens. In other words, the Sponsors should continue to pay 90% or 100% of the cashflows back to unit holders even though it is not mandated by laws here.

However, having said that, the underlying business is important and retail income is definitely one of the more stable business vis-a-vis, say a shipping or hospitality trust. Retailers don’t move their shops every other month and are typically locked in for years.

Yield
CRT intends to distribute 100% of its distributable income from Listing Date till 30 June 2015 and thereafter at least 90%. As discussed, the actual level of distribution is still determined by the Trustee-Manager and not mandated by law and we have to trust the Manager to “stick to their promises”.

The projected yield is pretty attractive at 8% given that a lot of yield compression have already taken place in the Singapore stock market. Most of the retail REITs such as CapitaRetail China or Capitamall Trust or even Mapletree Greater China Trust are now trading at between yields of 4-5%.

Initial Properties
The pictures are below. Frankly, I have not been to these malls but in my view, that is secondary if we are comfortable that the sponsors are reputable ones and I have seen many “Aeon” malls in Japan while on my trips there.

The biggest contributor to the income is number 4 above, Mallage Shobu but you can see that the rental income are evenly distributed among the 4 properties. No key concentration risk.
The properties are freehold properties, currently 100% rented out and has a weighted lease expiry of 11.3 years. You can see that the tenants are locked in for the long term!

Cornerstones
According to reports, the demand for the placement tranche was overwhelming and many were cut back. The usual cornerstone investors are mostly reputable “long term” holders. You can find their profiles in the prospectus.

What I like about CRT
  • Properties are focused on the retail sector and income will be stable.
  • Japan is currently the “in place” to invest (surprisingly) under the new PM Abe.
  • Strong sponsors in Daiwa and Marubeni and they have given voluntary ROFRs (Right of First Refusals) for sale of future real estate in Asia ex Japan. Both the sponsors are listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange and have significant combined market caps of more than S$28b,
  • Good pipeline of assets in Shenyang and Shanghai without the developmental risks and an additional 4 Japanese properties.
  • Investing in JPY/SGD at a 10 year low as mentioned in my earlier preview post.
  • Strong institutional demand for the units.

My Concerns
  • Economic prospects have not been good in Japan for the last 10 years but that might be improving and the retail sector is still more resilient than the rest.
  • High leverage of around 44%, which will affect the company’s cashflows if interest rates go up.
  • Earthquakes or natural disasters but this should be covered by insurance.

Fair Value
Assuming a fair value yield of 6-7%, the price should have a fair value range of between $1.06 to $1.24. It is a 3 chillis for me and Hoot ah.
Happy IPOing



Source/Extract/Excerpts/来源/转贴/摘录: www.sharesinv.com/
Publish date:06/05/13

SI’s Delicate Picks: First Quarter 2013 Review

03 MAY 2013
SI’s Delicate Picks: First Quarter 2013 Review
By Choo Hao Xiang and Louis Kent Lee


Following up on the previous write up featuring our Experts’ Favourites for the first quarter under review, we will be reviewing the handpicked stocks by Shares Investment for the first quarter. Let’s take a look at how our stocks have performed, shall we?

Yes, you can say it now, spring is here. And so is the first quarter’s reporting season. Needless to say, many who were awed by the stellar run seen in stock markets in the earlier part of the year continue to ask the same question, “Is this sustainable?”

Hai-O: Healthy prospects with lucrative yields (Affin)


Hai-O:
RM2.35
Target Price: RM2.98
Healthy prospects with lucrative yields

 Reaping benefits from new operating strategies
We came away positive from our meeting with management on Hai-O’s prospects. Although 3QFY04/13 net profit of RM11m is still far from its heyday of RM15-20m in FY09-10, we note that the company’s new strategy of: 1) focusing on higher margin products (eg. foundation garments); and 2) developing new operating structure for its multi-level-marketing (MLM, Hai-O’s largest revenue contributor, accounting for 62% of 9MFY04/13’s total revenue) division is bearing fruit. Hai-O’s 9MFY04/13 net profit had rebounded commendably by +31% yoy to RM32.2m (9MFY04/11: RM20.3m) and we attribute this to the strong recovery from its MLM division, underpinned by the healthy membership growth and higher volume sales recorded in its bigger ticket items such as foundation garments, water filter and food purifier.

Globetronics : Auspicious start, with a surprise dividend (MIDF)


Globetronics
Price (30 April 2013) RM1.82
Target Price RM1.96
Auspicious start, with a surprise dividend

Net profit within expectations with strng +64.5%yoy growth in 1Q13.
1Q13 revenue came in solid with +36.4%yoy growth contributed by higher volume loadings from most of its customers.
Dividend remained generous with 5 sen declared (2 sen interim, 3 sen special)
Reiterate BUY to take advantage of a recovering sector, resilient performance and good dividend yield.

First Real Estate Investment Trust MANAGEMENT REPLY: S$1 bln AUM target achieved – now what?


4/5/2013 – OCBC Research believes proposed acquisitions by First REIT have already been priced in the share price, and has maintained its HOLD rating with a target price of S$1.31.

The analyst believes valuations are not compelling at current levels.

First REIT is positive on the growing affluence of the middle-class segment in Indonesia, which will drive strong demand for quality medical services.

Increasingly, younger Indonesian consumers are uncompromising in their search for quality healthcare of international standards.

Olam International MANAGEMENT REPLY: Does strategic review prove Muddy Waters was right?


Olam International
4/5/2013 – Analysts have given a luke warm reception to Olam International’s plan to focus more on generating cash than profitability, saying the changes won’t have a positive impact in the near term.

Olam’s plan follows a strategic review, prompted by criticism by US short-seller Muddy Waters.

Olam believes successful execution of its new plans will strengthen the group considerably and result in continued growth in profits, a stronger balance sheet and improved operating performance.

It will also help generate positive free cash flows and promote a better understanding of Olam’s business by its key stakeholders.

Cosco Corporation : Excess shipbuilding capacity (DBSV)


Cosco Corporation
FULLY VALUED S$0.87
STI : 3,369.90
Price Target : 12-month S$ 0.75 (Prev S$ 0.80)
Excess shipbuilding capacity

• 1Q13 way below consensus
• Challenging shipbuilding outlook, exacerbated by the recent yen depreciation; FY13/14F earnings cut by 43/44%
• Maintain FULLY VALUED; TP reduced to S$0.75

1Q13 below. Cosco reported a disappointing set of 1Q13 results with net profit coming in at S$9.7m (-65% y-o-y), way below our expectation of S$20-25m. Key variances were the lower than expected non-offshore revenue and sale of scrap materials, as well as forex loss. Nevertheless, overall gross margin held up at 10.7%, attributable to Cosco's improved efficiency and lower steel cost, offsetting the lower newbuild prices.

Malaysia Business Conditions Post-Election



曾淵滄專欄08.05.13:滙控有力再上層樓


曾淵滄專欄:滙控有力再上層樓 - 曾淵滄

馬來西亞大選,反對陣營民聯有史以來第一次獲得超過一半的選票,總得票率為51.4%,但卻無法變天,為甚麼?

原因是人口的分佈,馬來西亞的選舉是單議席單票的「隻揪」制度,這一回,華人選票一面倒支持民聯,但華人過度集中居住於大城市,在這些選區,民聯以極高的比率擊敗執政黨國陣,而以馬來人為主的鄉村地區國陣則以微差險勝,「隻揪」的選舉制度,勝1票就足夠當選,大勝1萬票是浪費9,999票。

Malaysia Election Created More Uncertainties: Boo


Tuesday, May 7, 2013

中海油150億增持澳氣田


中海油150億增持澳氣田

【本報訊】中國海洋石油總公司昨宣佈,與英國天然氣集團(BG)簽署系列協定,向BG每年採購500萬噸液化天然氣資源,為期20年;並將以19.3億美元(150.54億港元)增持澳大利亞昆士蘭柯帝士液化天然氣項目的權益。

向BG採購天然氣
BG將從2015年開始向中海油供應液化天然氣,資源來源為其全球液化天然氣資源組合。根據系列協定,中海油將增持昆士蘭柯帝士液化天然氣項目第一條生產線40%的權益,將原有10%的權益提升至50%;中海油將增持BG在昆士蘭州蘇拉特盆地瓦隆礦區部份區塊所轄資源量和儲量20%的權益,將原有5%的權益提升至25%;中海油將獲得BG集團在昆士蘭州博文盆地和蘇拉特盆地部份上游區塊25%的權益;中海油將擁有參股昆士蘭柯帝士液化天然氣項目未來一條生產線不高於25%的選擇權。

Which stocks will go up now that the general election is over?


The Star Online > Business
Tuesday May 7, 2013
Which stocks will go up now that the general election is over?

Analysts pick sectors likely to do well going forward

PETALING JAYA: The conclusion of the 13th general election (GE13) with Barisan Nasional returning to power has removed the political risk overhang that had been affecting market sentiment, said analysts.

The stock market rallied to reach a fresh record high of 1,826 points, as investors and traders returned to the market in full force.

Following Barisan Nasional election victory big rail projects to get more traction now


The Star Online > Business
Tuesday May 7, 2013
Following Barisan Nasional election victory big rail projects to get more traction now

By SHARIDAN M. ALI
sharidan@thestar.com.my

PETALING JAYA: The development of various multi-billion rail infrastructure projects are expected to gain better clarity and speedier traction now, following the victory of the Barisan Nasional coalition in Sunday's general election, industry players said.

Construction stocks were going through a lull due to uncertainty over the general election.

東益電子盈利可達標


東益電子盈利可達標
Created 05/06/2013 - 17:57
(吉隆坡6日訊)東益電子(GTRONIC,7022,主板科技組)2013年首季業績符合市場預期,分析員認為由於多元化產品及半導體領域復甦,2013年雙位數盈利成長可達標,不排除該公司今年將派發更高股息。

MIDF研究指出,東益電子首季開紅盤,淨利按年增長64.5%,符合市場預期,稅前盈利獲得改善,尤其是大馬及新加坡市場,各佔68.7%及19.7%,比前期增加了130萬及210萬令吉,主要是客戶較高量需求推動淨利成長。

首季營業額,大馬及新加坡市場貢獻佔94.1%,大馬市場按年成長15%至5千170萬令吉,而新加坡則暴增316%至2千120萬令吉,中國市場也從10萬令吉走高則100萬令吉,不過美國市場卻從660萬令吉下滑至350萬令吉。

Upgrading Hi-P to Trading BUY (Limtan)


HI-P
Stock Update S$0.755-HIP SP
 We are upgrading Hi-P to Trading BUY from Neutral as
- we understand that prospect for the company is turning brighter as the company will be benefitting from the launch of a mass market phone by Apple, their key customer;

- an improving acceptance of Blackberry’s new smart-phones the Z10 and Q10;

- and maiden contributions from new customers such as Amazon and Nike;

股海宝藏:睦兴旺优势被忽略


股海宝藏:睦兴旺优势被忽略
Created 05/06/2013 - 13:19
睦兴旺(Muhibbah,5703,主板建筑股)成立于1972年,1994年上市。

90年代中期是投资者的最爱,不过受到1997年金融风暴的影响而被投资者的忽略。

自此,它重新定位为纯建筑公司,进军海外市场及多元化至建筑吊机(通过子公司辉高Favco,7229,主板工业产品股])和船只业务,主要专注在油气领域。

由于国油勘探继续发出多项总值超过10亿令吉的船只合约,所以今年初的油气领域相当蓬勃。

Cosco Corporation : Negative operating leverage (CIMB)


Cosco Corporation
Current S$0.87
Target S$0.46
Negative operating leverage

 1Q13 core profit accounted for only 10% of our full-year forecast, well below our and consensus expectations, as it was dragged down by negative operating leverage and lower other income, including lower scrap sales and the lack of reversal of provisions.

Despite the dismal outlook, we believe that Cosco, as a state-owned firm, could be forced to keep its workforce and yards intact to sustain employment rather than making the required cuts to improve operational leverage. We cut our FY13-15 EPS by 50-53% to account for lower scrap sales and margins and downgrade from Neutral to Underperform with a lower target price of S$0.45, still on 22x CY14 P/E (5-year mean).

Deleum : On the lookout for earnings surprises (Alliance)


Deleum Berhad
12-month upside potential Target price 2.70
Current price (as at 2 May) 2.15
On the lookout for earnings surprises

 We came away from an analyst briefing with Deleum with some clues on potential earnings surprises for FY13 and beyond. Items on our watch list now include more retrofitting works for the power and machinery segment, as well as an umbrella slick line contract. Over the longer term, regional growth could be on the cards. For now, earnings are sustainable with an outstanding RM1.4bn orderbook lasting the group into 2018 and we forecast conservative growth in the interim of 11.2% in FY13. With a 6.5x forward P/E, potential net dividend yield of 7.7% for FY13, we maintain our BUY recommendation on Deleum.

Reits Sector - Proposal to SC to allow acquisition of greenfield assets


Reits Sector - Proposal to SC to allow acquisition of greenfield assets

- Local dailies reported that REIT managers are seeking a proposal from the Securities Commission (SC) to allow the acquisition of greenfield assets, according to the Malaysia REIT Managers Association.

- The current legislation only allows local REITs to purchase buildings under construction, including abandoned buildings. Greenfield assets are completely offlimits for the REITs. In most cases, the REITs are backed by sponsors, who are likely property developers and having rights to develop greenfield assets.

Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust: 1Q13 results in line (OCBC)


Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust:
Fair value S$0.52
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.036
versus: Current price S$0.535

1Q13 results in line
• 0.89 S cent DPU
• Healthy occupancy
• Maintain FV of S$0.52

LMIRT posted 1Q13 gross rental income of S$39.4m, up 29.3% YoY. The increase was mainly due to the acquisition of the six new malls in 4Q12, and positive rental reversions for the existing malls. The higher gross rental income was partially offset by the effect of FX rates used for translating into SGD revenues denominated in IDR. Results for the quarter were in line with our and consensus expectations; DPU of 0.89 S cent formed 25% of ours and 26% of the street's FY13 estimate. We maintain our fair value of S$0.52 and HOLD rating on LMIRT. We estimate a FY13F yield of 6.7%.

Tiong Seng: A Competitive Edge Through Technology Utilisation


03 MAY 2013
Tiong Seng: A Competitive Edge Through Technology Utilisation
By Jade Lee and Nicholas Tan

Recent years have been testing times for construction firms. Sandwiched between policies on real estate control and foreign workers restriction, these companies are facing thinning margins. What are these construction firms doing to cope with such challenges? We speak to local construction firm Tiong Seng Holdings to find out more.

Roiling the property sector, governments in the region have taken an assertive but careful stance towards real estate control in cooling the red hot property markets. Tiong Seng Holdings, a local construction company operating in a labour intensive industry, with a large domestic business exposure has not been spared by these regulatory measures implemented by the government.

Globetronics Technology Bhd - Good Start To The Year


Globetronics Technology Bhd -
Price Target:2.04
Last Price:1.81
Good Start To The Year

Globetronics’ 1Q13 results were in line with our expectations as we have predicted softer q-o-q results due to seasonality. Y-o-y, 1Q13 net income surged 62% to MYR10.2m on a 36% y-o-y jump in revenue, while EBIT margin rose to 15.2% from 12.3% in 1Q12, underpinned by a better product mix, economies of scale achieved across most of its product segments, as well as higher volume loadings from most of its customers. The company is in a net cash position, with net cash per share of MYR0.40 as at end-March 2013. Maintain BUY with a fair value of MYR2.04, pegged to its 5-year average P/E of 11.5x.

VARD: World’s Leading OSV Builder at 5x Ex-Cash P/E (DMG)


VARD
Target Price: SGD1.82
Price: SGD1.08
World’s Leading OSV Builder at 5x Ex-Cash P/E

 Share price has declined 13% since the lapsed of the takeover offer from Fincantieri on 13 Mar. Following our conversation with management, we remain positive on the stock. We expect order book replenishment to be stronger than market expectations and believe the recent sell-down has more than priced-in the negative news of delays in Brazil and lower earnings. Re-iterate BUY with an unchanged TP of SGD1.82.

CapitaLand 1Q13 in line: Strong sales momentum in 1Q to underpin future earnings growth (CS)


CapitaLand
Maintain OUTPERFORM
Price (26 Apr 13 , S$) 3.65
TP (prev. TP S$) 4.53 (4.53)
1Q13 in line: Strong sales momentum in 1Q to underpin future earnings growth

● CAPL’s 1Q13 results in line. Core PATMI (ex. divestment gains, revaluations, impairment,) rose 70% YoY to S$133 mn, accounting for 25% of our core FY13E, but below street’s at 18%.

● Strong sales momentum in Singapore, selling 544 units in 1Q13 (FY12: 681, 4Q12: 352, 1Q12: 57) with intensified marketing efforts, especially at d’Leedon. 1Q13 sales value alone was equivalent to FY12’s. In China, CAPL sold 955 units in 1Q (4Q: 1,183, 1Q12: 255) with sales value rising 338% YoY to RMB1,891 mn. Strong sales momentum should underpin future profit growth.

CapitaMalls Asia: PATMI up 83% as CH portfolio stabilises and SG profits improve led by ION, Star Vista (CS)


CapitaMalls Asia -
Price (24 Apr 13 , S$) 1.97
TP (prev. TP S$) 2.58 (2.58
Maintain OUTPERFORM
1Q13 in line: PATMI up 83% as CH portfolio stabilises and SG profits improve led by ION, Star Vista

● CMA’s 1Q13 core PATMI of S$66.2 mn (+83% YoY) was in line at 27% of expectations. Growth was driven by: (1) opening of 9 malls in 2012; (2) higher contribution from recent acquisitions including 4 JP malls and higher stakes in Minhang, Hongkou; (3) ION.

曾淵滄專欄 07.05.13:濠賭併購掀尋寶潮


曾淵滄專欄:濠賭併購掀尋寶潮 - 曾淵滄

銀娛(027)以32.5億元收購結好(064)位於路氹銀娛賭場旁的金都酒店及其賭場業務,消息公佈後,兩股股價皆大幅造好,銀娛升5.9%,結好升11.3%。不過,銀娛是一路上升並以接近最高價收市,創歷史新高;結好則高開23%,之後一路向下調整,收市時升幅已削去一半。換言之,如開市時高追結好,收市時會損手。

多年前,濠賭股百花齊放,有真正擁有賭牌的上市公司,有經營賭廳的上市公司,有擁有酒店兼賭場但沒有賭牌的上市公司。那時候,我不停建議大家只買有賭牌的股。現在我們也的確看到會年年虧損的濠賭股,結好就是一家去年(3月結)出現業績虧損的公司。但是銀娛收購後,相信馬上會有不錯的利潤,原因金都酒店恰好在銀娛賭場旁,可以視為銀娛的擴張,有協同作用。

金價重挫 巴菲特:每盎司800美元也不買


金價重挫 巴菲特:每盎司800美元也不買
2013年5月5日
【明報專訊】近來金價大跌,引來各方討論應該拋售套現還是趁低吸納的問題。日前,股神巴菲特接受美國CNN電視台的訪問時就形容,黃金是「不會下蛋的雞」,即使其價格跌至每盎司800美元,他也不會買入。

黃金是「不會下蛋的雞」

國際金價近日大挫,跌穿每盎司1500美元的大關。不過即便金價大跌,向來崇尚價值投資法的巴菲特,仍不為心動。他在接受CNN財富雜誌的訪談時強調:「即使跌到每安士1000美元,甚至是800美元,我也不會買入。我覺得黃金除了看之外,其實也沒什用處了。」

东益电子 业绩增长可延续


东益电子 业绩增长可延续
Created 05/03/2013 - 11:29
目标价:1.96令吉

最新进展

东益电子(GTronic,7022,主板科技股)今年首季净利达1020万令吉,按年增长64.5%,符合我们与市场的预期。

首季营业额也相当稳固,增长36.4%至7750万令吉,主要来自马新两国的贡献;净利赚幅也改善了2.9%,至15.2%。

该公司宣布首季派发每股5仙股息,其中有2仙为中期股息,3仙为特别股息。

Malaysia Needs Deep Fiscal Reforms: HSBC's Neumann



股匯齐贺国阵胜出 须提防涨势难续


(吉隆坡6日讯)马股在国阵贏得本届大选继续执政中央之后,周一在官股引领所有蓝筹股高涨之下,早盘一度飆高131.45点或7.7%,写下1826.22点盘中最高,最后以1752点新高闭市。 但市场分析员和投资者皆相信马股的涨势不会持久,因大选结果仍有不稳定因素,以及可能面对外资「5月卖货走人」效应。

5月5日举行的第13届全国大选已落幕,虽然国阵无法重夺2/3国席优势,但依然成功保住中央政权。马股一如市场预期般在国阵胜选后开出红盘,全场有多达800多只上升股,蓝筹股悉数上扬。

富时大马综指早盘便以1771.62点跳空开高,开市数分钟就突破1800点大关,高掛1826.22点,改写今年4月30日以来的盘中最高水平。虽然如此,综合指数很快就回吐部份涨幅,半天休市做到1747.85点,终场则以1752.02点掛收,全天上升57.25点或3.38%。

Monday, May 6, 2013

政治風險未除‧馬股短期料震盪


政治風險未除‧馬股短期料震盪
Created 05/06/2013 - 17:30
(吉隆坡6日訊)國陣在大選中勝出帶動馬股“漲聲"歡慶,一度勇闖1826點歷史新高,惟分析員認為,國陣大選成績單欠佳、反對黨拒絕接受選績,令政治風險的警鐘無法全面解除,預見未來數月的馬股走勢震盪,漲勢也恐難持續。

首相拿督斯里納吉在激戰後順利保住政權,儘管結果在分析員預期中,但國內外資金蜂擁而至,帶動政治相關股熱烈歡慶,馬股不停挑戰新高,甫開市不到5分鐘內狂飆131.45點或7.76%至1826.22點新高,截至3時以1750.35點大唱豐收,飆升55.58點或3.29%。

MIIF voluntarily suspends trading for 8 days, starting from Tues on pay TV’s IPO


MIIF voluntarily suspends trading for 8 days, starting from Tues on pay TV’s IPO
Macquarie International Infrastructure Fund (MIIF) today announced its intention to voluntarily suspend trading in MIIF shares for eight market days to start before the market opens on Tuesday, 7 May 2013 and to end after the market closes on Thursday, 16 May 2013.

MIIF shareholders have agreed to the proposed divestment by the company of its 47.5% interest in Taiwan Broadband Communications (TBC); and the special resolution relating to the proposed capital reduction plan.

MIIF said it is suspending the trading of its shares to prevent disorderly trading, since from May 7, MIIF shares will no longer carry entitlements to APTT’s units.

Malaysia Pipeline of Investment Very Healthy: Jala



企业接力赛急不来


企业接力赛急不来
Created 05/06/2013 - 13:22
富豪创下的成功企业,个人特质成为旗下企业的精神象征及市场焦点,因此,由谁接班的议题,向来都被精神领袖的光芒所掩盖。

尽管如此,市场人士认为,没有明确公布接班计划,并不会构成企业发展的风险。

市场普遍认为,这些企业已发展成熟,培养了强稳的管理团队扶持公司营运,即使创办人逐渐淡出都不成问题。

黃國英:不宜「Sell in May」


黃國英:不宜「Sell in May」
http://paper.wenweipo.com   [2013-05-06]

 香港文匯報訊(記者 周紹基)踏入5月,「Sell in May」魔咒又再被提起,但港股卻保持平穩,5月首三天恒指只跌了48點,同樣技術指標顯示大市走勢已好轉,只是成交一直偏低,令投資者不敢貿然入市。豐盛資產管理董事黃國英指出,多國經濟數據都差,原本是大市向下的時候,但由於港股估值偏低,恒指顯著下挫空間有限,今年「五窮月」未必重現,反而一批二三線股勁升,故本月不宜做淡友。

港股估值吸引 走勢好轉
 目前本港地產股及資源股繼續疲弱,一批二三線股卻造好,估值也不貴,港匯也轉為偏強,部分原因可能是新股帶動,但總的來說是偏向利好。但黃國英提醒,大市成交偏低,只要一個壞消息,依然可令股市大跌。若要搶佔投資先機,5月是可以入市收集的時候,好處是價位相對不高,反而恒指升至23,000點,再追便進退兩難。但為保障風險,止蝕位也不能設太低,22,400點已可作為第一個止蝕位。

Fund佬睇盡A股光怪陸離


中國經濟增長幾近全球之冠,投資憧憬無限,不過內地造假成風,就連「歐洲股神」安東尼波頓亦表明不信官方數據,每月飛去中國作實地考察。今期找來參與A股及內地債券市場的基金經理,分享他們在中國投資的種種奇怪現象。打算炒A股的散戶,不妨先聽聽他們的「投資歷險記」。
投機充斥 股市變賭場

本身是會計師出身的傲揚集團主席兼投資總監尹滿華,可算是首批投資A股的港人基金經理,他○四年成立第一隻中國A股基金。「因為那時候無人了解A股市場是怎樣一回事,有些持有QFII(合資格境外機構投資者)額度的機構,可以說得上是「半賣半送」,希望有其他機構投資者參與A股。」他稱。

商品大王點指全球


羅傑斯(Jim Rogers)有不少稱號,最為人熟悉的是「商品大王」之稱,他的投資足迹遍布全球,更被時代雜誌封為「投資界的奪寶奇兵」。一直以美國為大本營的他,六年前決定由紐約舉家移民至新加坡(星洲)定居,就是因為看好中國的未來,要讓女兒在亞洲成長。本報記者親自走訪大王的家居,有趣的是一室布滿了大大小小的地球儀及世界各地搜集回來的紀念品,讓人感覺他投資全球的興致。

羅傑斯的大宅位於新加坡植物公園附近,是全國最高級的地段之一,大宅沒有金碧輝煌的裝潢,反而在門外的園庭種滿竹樹及芭蕉樹,洋溢着大自然氣色。走進羅傑斯大宅的客廳,隨處可見他在世界各地搜集回來的紀念品,有中國特色的古董櫃、充滿印度色彩的擺設,園亭外更有一隻巨型非洲象的裝飾。

Siva Kumar closed to control of Masterskill


Siva Kumar closed to control of Masterskill

By Francis Fernandez
bt@mediaprima.com.my
2013/05/06

KUALA LUMPUR: Former investment banker Siva Kumar Jeyapalan appears to have gained control of Masterskill Education Group Bhd (MEGB), just months after demanding that the company's board of directors bucks up.

Last Friday, MEGB informed Bursa Malaysia that Siva Kumar bought 72 million MEGB shares at 40 sen apiece in two off-market deals.

麥嘉華(Marc Faber)筆記:揸美國資產 要格外留神


麥嘉華筆記:揸美國資產 要格外留神 - 麥嘉華

俗語有云:「人比人,比死人。」根據德國兩間大學聯手進行的調查,人們在facebook「見證」好友的開心假期、幸福戀愛生活,或者事業有成,妒忌心理便可能會油然而生,並因此而感到不開心。研究發現,每三個人之中,就有一人在瀏覽facebook後產生負面的情緒,更加不滿現狀。

年輕人欠缺儲蓄
由Creditdonkey.com負責的另一項調查指出,每十個美國人,有四位承認沒有能力輕鬆地拿出500美元。United Way of Greater Philadelphia行政總裁米莎表示,這個調查結果並不令人震驚,但讓人擔心。身處經濟艱難時期,人們之所以會「墮崖」,便是因為企得太近懸崖邊緣。

股神撐美股無泡沫


【本報綜合報道】股神繼續唱好美股。日前巴郡舉行股東周年大會,情況一如往常般「墟冚」,不少財金界名人捧場,包括微軟主席兼創辦人蓋茨、前超級模特兒凱西愛爾蘭(Kathy Ireland)等。過往多番看好美股表現的股神畢菲特表示,雖然有美國聯儲局退市的不確定因素,但認為美股仍然「有得升」,堅稱未見泡沫。

畢菲特表示,股市可以升至遠高於現水平的位置,現價不算便宜亦不算高價,更不存在泡沫。他不認為低息令銀行無意借貸,反駁指旗下富國銀行便盡力尋求放貸機會。

憂儲局退市累全球
雖然睇好股市,但他對儲局的量寬措施(QE)「易放難收」表示憂慮,擔心當儲局開始出售持有國債,甚至只是宣佈停止買入,亦會令股市急跌。他表示不知道結果會如何,但聯儲局的行動將會哄動全球,有可能引發通脹。不過,畢菲特表示尊重聯儲局主席伯南克,認為美國的經濟、甚至巴郡亦受惠於QE,並指低息環境讓巴郡完成多宗從前無法促成的交易,其中包括收購茄汁製造商亨氏。

Moving in opposite directions (CIMB)


 Moving in opposite directions
Asia-Europe carriers are not moving together on the capacity front. While the top three global carriers have pulled capacity, others have added capacity, resulting in net 2.3% yoy supply growth in Apr 2013. Idling has also remained too low to reduce oversupply.

 Despite capacity growth, Asia-Europe trade demand is likely to stay flat or fall this year, putting pressure on rates. We stay Neutral on shipping overall, with our top pick as Pacific Basin, which continues to stay profitable despite record-low bulk rates and for which valuations are very compelling. Within the container space, we have Outperforms only on OOIL and SITC, which are well-run and lower-risk companies.

Ascott Residence Trust: Subdued quarter, one-off gains (CIMB)


Ascott Residence Trust
Current S$1.46
Target S$1.43
Subdued quarter, one-off gains

 1Q13 RevPAU dipped 11% qoq and 10% yoy, dragged down by weaker demand in Singapore and Vietnam, and a weak JPY. The DPU increase was driven by a one-off forex gain on repayment of foreign currency debt. Acquisitions and pick-up in demand are rerating catalysts.

1Q13 DPU came in slightly ahead of our and consensus expectations on one-off forex gains, at 26% of our FY13 forecast. We raise FY13 DPUs but lower FY14-15 DPUs, factoring in lower interest costs and gross profit margins over FY13-15, and the one-off FX gain in FY13. Our DDM-based target price rises on a lower discount rate of 7.8% (previously 8.2%). Maintain Neutral.

Suntec REIT: Spectacular Pre-leasings At Suntec City (UOBKH)


Suntec REIT
Share Price S$1.98
Target Price S$2.27
1Q13: Spectacular Pre-leasings At Suntec City

Results are in line as Suntec applied a minimal S$2.7m Chijmes divestment proceeds to mitigate the income fall with two-thirds of Suntec City mall under renovation. Spectacular pre-leasings with Phase 1 97% committed two months before completion, while Phase 2 is 53% committed eight months before completion. Positive rental reversions in office supported income despite ORQ yield protection falling off this quarter. Maintain BUY with a higher DDM-derived target price of S$2.27 (from S$2.03).

CapitaMalls Asia: Focusing on execution (Phillip)


CapitaMalls Asia
Target Price (SGD) 2.11
- Previous Target Price (SGD) 2.11
Closing Price (SGD) 2.04
Focusing on execution

 Company Overview
CMA is a shopping mall developer, owner and manager. It has interests in and manages a pan-Asian portfolio over 90 shopping malls. Its principle business strategy is to invest in, develop and manage a diversified portfolio of real estate used primarily for retail purposes in Asia.

• 1Q13 revenue increased 30%y-y to $91.5mn, PATMI increased 9.6%y-y
• Better results were attributable to higher fee income, contributions from newly acquired/opened malls, as well as improvement in existing portfolio
• We believe its current price has reflected the relevant improvement.

CDL Hospitality Trust: Subdued local hotel outlook (CIMB)


CDL Hospitality Trust
Current S$2.05
Target S$1.94
Subdued local hotel outlook

 1Q’s weak performance was in line with CDLHT’s earlier muted guidance but the magnitude surprised. DPU would have been lower if not for its recent purchase and refinancing savings. We see downside risks to RevPARs amid competition and weak corporate travel.

1QFY13 DPU was below consensus and our forecast due to weak local hotel performance, forming 23% of our full-year estimate. We lower DPUs and our DDM-based target price (discount rate: 8.0%) given weaker assumed local RevPARs, offset by lower borrowing cost. Downgrade from Neutral to Underperform on downside risks to RevPARs.

Starhill Global REIT: Not in its prime yet (OCBC)


Starhill Global REIT:
Fair value S$1.05
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.05
versus: Current price S$0.97

Not in its prime yet
• 1Q13 results within view
• Singapore assets continued to fare well
• Still exhibiting good growth potential

Starhill Global REIT’s (SGREIT) 1Q13 results came in within our expectations. DPU for the quarter stood at 1.37 S cents, representing 27.0% of our FY13F DPU. Excluding the Toshin arrears payout, we note that DPU would have increased 10.3% YoY to 1.18 cents, still impressive in our view. Noteworthy was the strong operational performance at its Singapore portfolio, which contributed 66.3% to 1Q13 NPI.

Yangzijiang Shipbuilding: Steady ship amidst rough waters (OCBC)


Yangzijiang Shipbuilding:
Fair value S$0.95
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.04
versus: Current price S$0.95

Steady ship amidst rough waters
 • No surprises in results
• Still securing orders
• Signs of upturn remain elusive

Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (YZJ) reported a 22% YoY fall in revenue to RMB2.9b and a 30% drop in net profit to RMB717.2m in 1Q13, accounting for 24% and 26% of our full year estimates, respectively. Results were in line with our expectations, and we note that gross profit margin from the shipyard operations remained healthy at 25.9%.

CapitaLand Limited: Firm performances across key segments (OCBC)


CapitaLand Limited:
Fair value S$4.29
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.07
versus: Current price S$3.65

Firm performances across key segments
• 1Q13 results in line
• Firm resi. sales in SG and CN
• CMA 1Q figures above view

1Q13 PATMI came in at S$188.2m – up 41% YoY mostly due to heavier income recognition of property developments in Singapore and China and S$46m net gain from the sale of a Beijing project. Excluding one-time items, 1Q13 operating profit is S$133.3m which increased 70% YoY and we judge this to be generally within expectations.

MIIF: Move to Divest TBC, Lumpy Dividend Ahead (SIAS)


Macquarie International Infrastructure Fund Ltd
• Intrinsic Value S$0.680
• Prev Closing Price S$0.630
Move to Divest TBC, Lumpy Dividend Ahead

Macquarie International Infrastructure Fund Ltd (MIIF) posted 1Q revenue of only S$7.7m vs corresponding period of S$23.7m mainly due to lower contribution from TBC, which is now in the process of being divested. Cash is retained for expenses related to the divestment. As a result, 1Q adjusted net income was only S$5.1m.

Over the past few months, MIIF has implemented several initiatives following the strategic review such as distributing excess cash, rearranging management fees, appointing new independent directors and early termination of undrawn debt facility.

Singapore Market Strategy- Improving valuations in the absence of earnings growth (CS)


Singapore Market Strategy
Improving valuations in the absence of earnings growth

● The current SG market rally (STI up 12.8% from 20 Nov 2012) has seen several large cap sectors (Banks, telecom) gain materially, despite earnings estimates having been largely stagnant. Even the S-REITS, which had a strong run in early 2012, have continued to rise. Indeed, the STI has reached our year-end target of 3350!

● This re-rating is essentially a result of falling cost of capital, in our view. Traditional valuation metrics (P/E 14x, P/B 1.5x) do not capture this; or the fall in EPS growth. In this note, we use DDM to estimate changes in equity risk premiums for SG equities.

Dr Chan Yan Chong Column - 03.05.2013


03 MAY 2013
Dr Chan Yan Chong Column
By Dr Chan Yan Chong

In the previous issue, I described Singapore’s stock market as directionless after hitting multi-year highs. At the same time, the US stock market continued to surge while the Shanghai stock market fell. The latter broke the 2,200 support, which dragged down the performance of the Hong Kong and Singapore markets.

Due to the bullish US stock market, the falls in the Hong Kong and Singapore markets were negligible while the short rallies were more powerful than the Chinese stock market. Just before the close of the fortnight, the Hong Kong and Singapore markets rallied as the latter reached levels not seen since 2007.

曾淵滄專欄 06.05.13:保守新丁炒高房託


曾淵滄專欄:保守新丁炒高房託 - 曾淵滄

5月1日,美國聯儲局於議息會議後發表的聲明,強烈暗示會增加購買債券;5月2日歐洲央行宣佈減息,行長德拉吉更公開說大家準備好面對負利率;5月3日,香港金管局總裁陳德霖公開警告,全球熱錢隨時再湧入香港;同一天,中原城市領先指數止跌回升,結束連續五周的跌勢,報章裏那些「大劈價」新聞也靜靜地消失了。看來4月29日《人民日報》那篇談論股市的文章中預期的「紅五月」,的確有可能發生。

長時間的超低利率迫使最保守、一向只會把錢存在銀行收利息的人也忍不住,非把錢從銀行取出來投資不可。銀行、保險公司的債券基金熱賣,高息證券或外滙掛鈎存款又再盛行,一家雷曼兄弟倒了,人們相信不會再有第二家,理由是美國政府已明白何謂「大到不能倒」。

巴郡多賺51%股神彈藥近4千億


巴郡多賺51%股神彈藥近4千億

巴郡在昨日的股東大會舉行前公布首季業績報喜,純利按年跳升51%至48.9億美元(約381.4億港元),主要受惠保險業務增長加上股市掛鈎衍生工具升值,期內手頭現金更創新高。

不過,巴郡副主席芒格在股東大會前表示,雖然巴郡對再進行類似收購「鐵路王」Burlington Northern Santa Fe(BNSF)的大刁無任歡迎,但面對收購成本高昂,不容易找到具吸引力的收購目標。
巴郡上季手頭現金由前一季的470億美元升至491億美元(約3,829.8億港元)新高,銀彈充裕,當中約121億美元會用作參與收購番茄醬生產商亨氏。在聯儲局大舉放水下,導致資產價格上升,如樓市和商用物業市場。

投資SUN角度:A股短期續跑輸全球


上周五A股發力,滬綜指升1.4%,重上2,200點之上,但一日表現不足論英雄,事關今年A股走勢輸絕環球主要市場,連迷失多年的日本市場都甦醒,金融海嘯核心兼債台高築的美國以至歐洲市場都跑贏A股,令唔少專家大跌眼鏡。

論經濟增長,中國不在其他發達國家之下,惟A股卻大落後,拖累中資權重股份佔比唔低的恒指,就算個別中小型股份升到飛起,恒指繼續原地踏步。今期從經濟及市場多角度,解構A股不升之謎,羅列見底升市要具備的條件,提供多個參考,以作投資部署。

迪隆 长期订单激励业绩


迪隆 长期订单激励业绩
Created 05/04/2013 - 12:52
目标价:2.70令吉

最新进展

发电和机械、油田服务业务改善,刚收购的Deleum Primera开始带来盈利,加上联营子公司大马泥浆和化学赚幅增加,迪隆(Deleum,5132,主板贸服股)2012财年盈利增长53%。

该公司表示,发电和机械业务表现尤其出色,因为燃气轮机相关服务需求直线上升,改装服务赚幅也有所进步。

行家建议

Sunday, May 5, 2013

Malaysia Boosting Economic Ties With Singapore



《股市资讯》的心水股:2013年第一季回顾


《股市资讯》的心水股:2013年第一季回顾

文:  ,  (译:杨佳文) 
  • 2013年05月03日
  •  展望
    在上一期回顾了投资专家为今年第一季选出的心水股后,这期让我们来看看《股市资讯》选出的股票在第一季的表现又是如何吧!

    春天已经降临,第一季的业绩报告期也随之而来。多个市场在今年初的表现相当不错,但投资者都不禁要问:“目前的涨势会持续下去吗?”

    我们在上一期曾提到,在第一季发生的重要事件包括新加坡政府实施了第七轮楼市降温措施,以及不久前的塞浦路斯银行业危机。以此看来,当前的涨势并非是由整体经济状况促成。因此,我们还必须进一步剖析股市的表现。

    曾渊沧:抄底的最佳方法是等市场确认底部


    曾渊沧:抄底的最佳方法是等市场确认底部

    前阵子,港股不断地向下调整,恒指跌破22000点。有股评人建议抄底,也有股评人认为低处不算低,我则从来不去猜最低点在哪个水平,我抄底的方法不是捕捉最低点,而是耐心的等待最低点出现,股市开始反弹,再用移动平均线的方法衡量市场气氛是不是已经好转,信心是不是恢复才入市,以这种方法入市捕捉不到最低点,但是安全得多。回报很不错,前个星期我就在本栏向大家建议以恒指两天移动平均线向上穿越十九天移动平均线时才入市。4月22日,恒指两天移动平均线与十九天移动平均线看起。4月24日,恒指两天移动平均线终于升穿十九天移动平均线,这就是入市讯号,过去一星期,恒指的确继续挺进。

    颜子伟: 海峡时报指数很棒;但股市表现不怎样


    海峡时报指数很棒;但股市表现不怎样
    文: 颜子伟 (译:杨佳文) 2013年05月03日 展望
    市场人士早前曾预测亚洲各大指数将陷入一片愁云惨雾之中,但一些主要指数如恒生指数和海峡时报指数的表现都不错,唯独具指标性的上证综合指数大幅下跌。

    另一边厢,道琼斯工商指数在14,400点的水平回弹之后,继续迈向15,000点的心理关口。在此之前,道指进入了长达近两周的调整期,且一度出现可能进一步下跌的迹象,但投资者似乎仍相当乐观,因此道指目前应该能守在14,400点之上。

    市场在这两周出现了什么变化吗?指数为何会上升?

    KNM Group - 37% drop in FY12 audited net profit


    KNM Group -
    37% drop in FY12 audited net profit
    Price Target:0.49
    Last Price:0.415

    - We maintain our HOLD call on KNM Group but with a lower fair value of RM0.49/share (vs. an earlier RM0.55/share), due to the widening of our discount to our adjusted book value estimate of RM0.75/share from 25% to 35%. Our diluted book valuation excludes the group’s RM744mil goodwill arising from the acquisition of BORSIG Beteiligungsverwaltungsgesellschaft mbH (Borsig).

    MIIF : If Taiwan Broadband was undervalued by the market, how will an IPO change that?


    Macquarie International Infrastructure Fund will shut down after selling all it operating assets thereby distributing cash to shareholders. Will it be so easy?

    30/4/2013 – Macquarie International Infrastructure Fund (MIIF) will list its 47.5% stake in Taiwan Broadband Communications (TBC) on the SGX, in a business trust called Asian Pay Television Trust (APTT).

    According to MIIF, APPT has obtained a letter of eligibility to list from SGX and is targeting an IPO by end May.

    In fact, APTT has already started pre-marketing activities which will raise up to S$1 bln or US$810 mln.

    Thai Beverage: Why did it not take F&N private?

    2/5/2013 – The owners of Fraser & Neave (F&N), TCC Assets and Thai Beverage, have announced that they will keep F&N listed.

    The market was expecting Thai billionaire Charoen Sirivadhanabhakdi to delist F&N as it holds 90.3% of the firm through TCC Assets and Thai Beverage.

    In January, Charoen won a two month battle against a group led by Overseas Union Enterprise after raising his bid for the F&N shares he did not own to S$9.55 per share.

    Tiger Airways -Will it stop burning cash anytime soon - which of the brokers is right?


    2/5/2013 – Tiger Airways has received approval from the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) to sell 60% of Tiger Australia to Virgin Australia.

    Brokers are positive on the development, but are divided over how beneficial it will be to turn the airline around.

    It will receive A$35 mln for the stake, while the two partners will jointly invest A$62.5 mln in Tiger Australia.

    It will operate with its own board and management.

    Tiger Australia will pay Tiger Airways an annual license fee based on a percentage of revenue for the next 20 years.

    DBS Profits Are Sustainable: CEO



    Roger Tan: How to Invest in Singapore's Banking Sector



    @ FOOD EMPIRE's AGM: Shareholders Interested In New Markets, New Capex


    Written by Leong Chan Teik
    Thursday, 25 April 2013 12:15
    FOOD EMPIRE Holdings chalked up US$20.5 million in net profit in 2012, up 36.6% year on year.

    The Group, whose key products are 3-in-1 instant coffee, reported record revenue of US$237.7 million for FY 2012, an increase of 5.3% compared to the previous year.

    Sales growth was recorded in all the Group’s three regions – Russia (5.8%), Eastern Europe and Central Asia (4.5%) and in Other Markets (5.2%).

    At the AGM, shareholders approved the payment of a first and final dividend of  1.231 Singapore cents per  share.

    CapitaLand: A strong start for the year (Phillip)


    CapitaLand
    Target Price (SGD) 4.05
    - Previous Target Price (SGD) 4.05
    Closing Price (SGD) 3.65
    A strong start for the year

     CapitaLand is one of Asia's largest real estate companies. Headquartered and listed in Singapore, the company's core businesses in real estate, hospitality and real estate financial services are focused in growth cities in Asia Pacific and Europe.

    • Reported 1Q13 revenue at $661.9mn (+3.2%y-y) and PATMI at $188.2mn (+41%y-y)
    • Strong performance in its two core markets – Singapore and China despite mounting pressures to rein in rising home prices in both countries

    China Life: strong earnings but surrenders doubled (CS)


    China Life
    Price (25 Apr 13 , HK$) 20.60
    TP (prev. TP HK$) 24.00 (24.00
    Maintain NEUTRAL
    1Q13 result: strong earnings but surrenders doubled

    ● China Life reported 1Q13 net profit of Rmb10 bn, up 79% due to much smaller impairment losses (which was close to an end in our view and we should see robust earnings going forward).

    ● Total premium was down 2% YoY in 1Q13 amidst a challenging environment with difficulties in sales in both bancassurance and agency channels. Surrenders were at a historical high of Rmb20 bn and doubled from a year ago; which were mainly in the bancassurance channel due to lower yields compared to those of bank deposits and wealth management products. The surge in surrenders was partly offset by lower claims reserves.

    甚麼是「量化寬鬆」QE?原來不是印銀紙!有甚麼影響?

    甚麼是「量化寬鬆」QE?原來不是印銀紙!有甚麼影響?―施凌教學第六十五集


    「五窮六絕七翻身」謠傳你信嗎?

    「五窮六絕七翻身」謠傳你信嗎?今天力證對錯!―施凌教學第六十七集

    Unisem: “Net loss in 1Q13”(M&A)


    Unisem (M) Bhd
    Current Price RM0.88
    New Fair Value RM0.92
    Previous Value RM1.63
    “Net loss in 1Q13”

    Turnover decreased -7.32%QoQ and -2.68%YoY to RM 249.72 million in 1Q13. Unisem recorded net loss of -RM10.28 million in 1Q13, fell -49.03%QoQ and -24.86%YoY compared to net loss of -RM20.17 million in 4Q12 and net loss of -RM13.69 million in 1Q12. Loss per share for 1Q13 at -1.45 sen, was - 261% below consensus of 0.9 sen and -281% below our estimates of 0.8 sen. We downgraded our BUY call on Unisem to HOLD and revised downward the Fair Value to RM0.92 based on 0.6x current P/BV average due to its loss making status.

    曾淵滄教路 26.04.13 : 較資產折讓三至五成 中港地產股抵買


    較資產折讓三至五成 中港地產股抵買
    一向以來,我不喜歡撈底,但喜歡趁低價買股,兩者的不同是撈底是短炒,博一博,博中有獎,一見反彈就沽貨,趁低價買股是長線投資,從多個指標來衡量,計量當前的股價是不是相對的低,與過往的高價比較是不是有巨大的折讓?此股將來的前途如何?有多大的機會恢復當年的高位?估計要用多少年才能恢復當年的高價,或者,不一定需恢復當年的高位,但也能有不錯的回升幅度,如果估計三年之內有機會上升60%,即表示每年平均有20%的回報,為甚麼不值得買?二○○八年年底,在溫家寶總理宣布四萬億人民幣的基建投資之後,我大舉買股,也不停地建議讀者們趕快入市,以當時的恒指及當前的恒指比較,不足五年回報一倍以上,何樂不為?平均年回報率超過20%。

    曾淵滄博士股市资讯专栏 - 03.05.2013


    曾渊沧博士专栏
    文: 曾渊沧博士 2013年05月03日 曾渊沧博士专栏
    上一期我形容新加坡股市在过去3个月缺乏方向,在高位徘徊不前。 同一个时间美股表现非常好,不断创新高,相信是受到中国A股下跌的影响。上海综合指数再次跌破2,200点,影响了新加坡与香港的股市。

    幸好美股长时间表现好。尽管近一段日子新加坡与香港的股市受中国A股拖着走,几乎同步升跌。但同时,新加坡与香港的股市下跌幅度就比中国A股小,上升幅度也比A股大。近几天新加坡与香港的股市都已经跳出来,不再与中国A股同步。新加坡更创出5年新高,是2007年高峰之后的新高。

    Gabriel Gan: Impressive Straits Times Index, Unimpressive Stock Market


    03 MAY 2013
    Impressive Straits Times Index, Unimpressive Stock Market
    By Gabriel Gan

    Contrary to earlier forecast of “gloom and doom” for major Asian indices, several key indices such as the Hang Seng Index (HSI) and Straits Times Index (STI) performed admirably while the most influential and important of all – the Shanghai Composite Index (SSE) tanked quite badly.

    Meanwhile, the Dow Jones industrial Average (DJIA) continues its impressive march towards the 15,000-point psychological barrier after the index staged a rebound from 14,400 points. Prior to that, the index corrected for almost two weeks and had threatened to go even below but the bulls seem quite adamant that the DJIA should, at least for now, stay above 14,400 points.
    Warren E. Buffett(沃伦•巴菲特)
    Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful
    别人贪婪时我恐惧, 别人恐惧时我贪婪
    投资只需学好两门课: 一,是如何给企业估值,二,是如何看待股市波动
    吉姆·罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)
    “错过时机”胜于“搞错对象”:不会全军覆没!”
    做自己熟悉的事,等到发现大好机会才投钱下去

    乔治·索罗斯(George Soros)

    “犯错误并没有什么好羞耻的,只有知错不改才是耻辱。”

    如果操作过量,即使对市场判断正确,仍会一败涂地。

    李驰(中国巴菲特)
    高估期间, 卖对, 不卖也对, 买是错的。
    低估期间, 买对, 不买也是对, 卖是错的。

    Tan Teng Boo


    There’s no such thing as defensive stocks.Every stock can be defensive depending on what price you pay for it and what value you get,
    冷眼(冯时能)投资概念
    “买股票就是买公司的股份,买股份就是与陌生人合股做生意”。
    合股做生意,则公司股份的业绩高于一切,而股票的价值决定于盈利。
    价值是本,价格是末,故公司比股市重要百倍。
    曹仁超-香港股神/港股明灯
    1.有智慧,不如趁势
    2.止损不止盈
    成功者所以成功,是因为不怕失败!失败者所以失败,是失败后不再尝试!
    曾淵滄-散户明灯
    每逢灾难就是机会,而是在灾难发生时贱价买股票,然后放在一边,耐性地等灾难结束
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