Saturday, March 9, 2013

调控警醒牛市梦


调控警醒牛市梦
文: 桂浩明 2013年03月04日 展望
进入2013年以来,随着股市的节节上涨,人们对于后市的预期也不断提高,甚至认为行情反转,大牛市已经开始的观点也浮出了水面。在不少人看来,到了3月份,由于全国“两会”的展开,股市将出现更大的上涨,前景颇为光明。

但实际情况是,虽然春节前的股市表现可以说确实不错,但是节后就变了颜色。不但没有出现人们所期望的“开门红”,而且是相反出现了大跌,股指在2月底的时候一度还破位2300点。尽管在月末的最后一个交易日大盘出现了强劲,但此时结合各种市场表象来看,可以认为行情的弱势格局并没有因此而被改变。

曹仁超睇港股 叻極二萬四


【本報訊】港股昨日乘內地出口數據較預期佳,以及日圓破底的利好消息支持,急彈320點至23,091點,成交722億元,但綜觀年初至今表現,仍遠遠不及歐美日股市。著名財經專欄作家曹仁超及豐盛金融資產管理董事黃國英均認為,港股將於22,000點至24,000點之間上落,換言之,現價已達中游位置,後市欠甜頭,後者更認為,中港股市勢將跑輸歐美日股市,注定落後於外圍。

急升320點 今年跑輸美日
若比較環球股市今年表現,日股可謂食盡量寬升浪,表現勢如破竹,迄今已升18.2%;美股道指連番破頂,截至本周四,道指亦累積上升9.4%,至於歐洲英、法、德股市亦漲4至9%;至於港股恒指,則相形見絀,昨日急升320點後,年初至今僅升1.9%;內地股市同樣不濟,滬綜指及深成指年初至今僅分別升2.2%及1.9%,至於昨日更逆市跌0.2%及1.2%,表現相當難睇。

外資未懼大選續流入 維持3% 今年料不升息


(吉隆坡8日訊)國家銀行維持隔夜官方利率(OPR)不變,並稱“現在貨幣政策合適”,分析員認為,3%利率將維持很長一段時間;外匯儲備增加,也反映投資者不懼大選帶來的政治風險,未阻更多資金流入我國。

 豐隆投資銀行經濟學家徐克宇今日撰寫報告說,外圍經濟復甦緩慢,想必是國行維持利率政策不變的主因,以續刺激內需帶動經濟,所以才認為現在的貨幣政策合適。

 “我們有理由相信,國行今年內升息的可能性不大。縱使我國去年末季經濟成長優于預期,但隨著原產品價格走軟,及消費者開銷趨緩,國內經濟成長前景仍挑戰。”

政治因素引忧虑 令吉匯价波动剧烈


政治因素引忧虑 令吉匯价波动剧烈

(吉隆坡8日讯)全国大选跫音逼近,由于朝野双方势均力敌,导致令吉波动加剧,加上我国比其它新兴国家吸引了更多外资进入,让当前的令吉波动率比全球其它货幣来得剧烈。

令吉的1个月引伸波幅(Implied Volatility)上升1个基点或0.01百分点,至6.67%。令吉在此前2月1日一度跌至3.1265。

根据《彭博社》统计资料显示,令吉年初至今的3个月引伸波幅从5年新低的4.55%水平,攀升2.2个百分点至7.4%,高于《彭博社》追踪的47项外匯货幣波动。

Tiger Airways: Positioning for growth (OCBC)


Tiger Airways:
Fair value S$0.86
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.00
versus: Current price S$0.69

Positioning for growth
• Injection needed and not unexpected
• TGR in better position
• Turnaround still ongoing

Tiger Airways (TGR) announced yesterday that it plans to raise S$297m through a renounceable one-for-five rights issue and a non-renounceable one-for-four preferential offering of perpetual convertible securities.

Sunway Berhad - A Non-GLC Linked Iskandar Play


Sunway Berhad -
Price Target:3.25
Last Price:2.69
A Non-GLC Linked Iskandar Play

Our top pick, Sunway, remains undervalued despite the recent rerating. We reiterate our Buy call. We recently met management to discuss specifically the Sunway Iskandar project, and we had the privilege to have a glimpse of the tentative masterplan. Based on its track record at Bandar Sunway, we believe Sunway has the capability to repeat the success on its 1,770-acre land at Medini/Pendas.

A cheaper and lower risk Iskandar play. While the market could be concerned with the impact of rising election risk on GLC-linked property companies, Sunway is an attractive entrepreneurial-driven Iskandar play. Compared to UEMLD, which is currently trading at 22x PE, Sunway is only at 9x.

Tambun Indah Land - The Market Leader In Mainland Penang


Tambun Indah Land -
Price Target:1.08
Last Price:0.825
The Market Leader In Mainland Penang

We raise our fair value to RM1.08. We remain convinced that the upside potential for real estate values in the Penang mainland is substantial. Having >500 acres of landbank close to the Penang Second Bridge (PSB), Tambun Indah (TI) is expected to enjoy higher pricing for its products. This will translate to margin and RNAV expansion. In our view, management’s GDV guidance is conservative.

Stock Rally Will End Badly This Year: Marc Faber


The stock market's run will result in either a 20 percent correction or a more nasty sell off at some point this year, Marc Faber, publisher of the Gloom Boom and Doom report, told CNBC's "Closing Bell" on Thursday.

Faber pointed out that it's been almost exactly four years since the stock market bottomed out. "We're up very substantially, I think investors who today rush into stocks should be reminded of that," he said.

Echoing comments made on CNBC earlier this week by Stanley Druckenmiller, founder of hedge fund Duquesne Capital, Faber said that it will end badly for stocks. "But unlike Stan, I believe it will end badly this year," Faber said.

胡立阳: 股市“变脸”早知道



Shipping : 2012 Preview For Chinese Shipping Companies (UOBKH)


Shipping – Regional
Container Shipping  OVERWEIGHT  (Maintained)
Dry Bulk Shipping  UNDERWEIGHT (Maintained)
2012 Preview For Chinese Shipping Companies

CCH, CSCL and CSD will release 2012 results soon. CSCL and CSD would be profitable while CCH would report huge losses again. Re-iterate SELL call on CCH on potentially worse-than-expected results and demanding valuation. Maintain BUY on CSCL on a visible recovery of fundamentals and cheap P/B multiple.

What’s New
• China COSCO Holdings (CCH, 1919 HK/SELL/TP: HK$2.30), China Shipping Container Lines (CSCL, 2866 HK/BUY/TP: HK$3.20), and China Shipping Development (CSD, 1138 HK/BUY/TP: HK$3.04) will report 2012 results from 19 March.

ECS Holdings: Margins under pressure (OCBC)


ECS Holdings:
Fair value S$0.53
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.022
versus: Current price S$0.515

Margins under pressure
• 4Q12 core PATMI falls 16.4% YoY
• S$0.022 DPS declared
• Downgrade to HOLD on reduced FV

ECS Holdings’ (ECS) FY12 revenue inched 1.0% higher to S$3,643.7m, forming 102.0% of our FY12 forecast. Estimated core PATMI declined 18.4% to S$29.4m (reported PATMI fell 24.4% to S$29.6m), which missed our estimate by 5.8%.

KNM Group: Peterborough launch date uncertain (TA)


KNM Group
TP: RM0.53
Last Traded: RM0.48
Peterborough launch date uncertain

Below are our key takeaways from KNM’s analyst briefing yesterday:-
_ The group revealed that EBITDA margin of 5% for the Asia & Oceania (A&C) region in 4Q12 (3Q12: 12%, 4Q11: 16%) was significantly weaker due to the recognition of head office expenses, including financing costs under this region. In particular, increased financing costs of RM20.5mn in 4Q12 (3Q12: RM13.1mn) was mainly attributed to fees and interest costs arising from bridging loan facilities of RM150mn.

AIA Group : Supreme execution (CIMB)


AIA Group
Current HK$32.85
Target HK$34.88
Supreme execution

 FY12 core EPS is a head of our forecast by 28%,on higher investment gains. We are impressed by management’s ability to execute growth initiatives. Since its IPO in 2010, top line and margin growth has been robust, reflecting sound distribution and product improvements.

2HFY12 net profit ($1.6bn) beat our ($907m) and consensus forecast ($1.2bn). The beat came from higher than expected gains on investment portfolio. Factoring in higher sales growth from a more stable macroeconomic outlook and traction in initiatives, we raise our FY13-14 EPS by 5-6% and introduce FY15 numbers. This lifts our SOP target price. Maintain Outperform.

Sunway : Earnings lifted by strong rebound of property segment (MIDF)


Sunway Berhad
Maintain BUY
Price (28 Feb 13) 2.49
Target Price 2.96
Earnings lifted by strong rebound of property segment

INVESTMENT HIGHLIGHTS
Strong rebound of its property segment drove earnings growth in 4QFY12.
RM1.83b property sales in FY12.
RM1.9b orderbook replenishment for construction segment.

Earnings growth driven by property development segment: Sunway Berhad (Sunway) 4QFY12 core profit grew 13.2%yoy to RM114m. Full year core profit of RM350.6m exceeded our forecast by 12% as the earnings from the property development improved substantially in 4QFY12. Property development segment contributed to about 80% of Sunway’s earnings in 4QFY12.

JCY International : Slipping Into The Red (OSK)


JCY International
Target MYR0.35
Price MYR0.59
Slipping Into The Red

 JCY’s 1QFY13 core loss of MYR33m took us and consensus by surprise. The company did not declare a dividend for the quarter under review. We are slashing our FY13/FY14 forecasts for MYR158m/MYR152m in core earnings to core losses of MYR83m/MYR71m respectively. We are also changing our valuation from 4.5x FY13 PE to 0.7x CY13 P/NTA. Maintaining SELL, with our FV unchanged at MYR0.35.

Seeing red. JCY’s financial results were below expectations. Although the company’s 1QFY13 revenue was marginally below our/consensus’ full forecasts by about 5%/8%, it registered a core loss of MYR33m versus our/consensus’ estimates for core earnings of about MYR40m/MYR53m per quarter.

Padini :Slower Growth Ahead (MIB)

Padini Holdings
Hold (from Buy)
Share price: MYR1.81
Target price: MYR1.90 (from MYR2.40)
Slower Growth Ahead

 Downgrade to Hold. Sales at new stores have been slower than expected while price competition from international brands, namely H&M and Uniqlo, is contributing to margin pressure. Consequently we expect Padini’s 2QFY6/13 results (due out on Feb 26) to underperform. Coupled with our expectation of slower consumer spending ahead, our FY6/13-15 earnings forecasts are shaved by 6-10% and we expect flat earnings in FY6/13. Our TP is lowered to MYR1.90 (-21%) on a lower 2013 PER target of 12x (vs 14x, +3sd above mean) on higher earnings risks.

YTL Power: Gearing up for acquisition (DBSV)


YTL Power
HOLD RM1.54
KLCI : 1,614.05
Price Target : 12-Month RM 1.70
Gearing up for acquisition

2QFY13 result was within our expectations
Smaller power contribution due to weaker PowerSeraya earnings
No dividend for 2QFY13; conserving cash for acquisitions
Maintain HOLD with RM1.70 TP

Highlights
Weaker power contribution. YTLP’s 2QFY13 revenue was stable but pretax profit fell 14% y-o-y due to lower power contribution. PBT contribution from PowerSeraya (54% of PBT) fell 24% due to lower fuel oil prices and sale volume recorded at its fuel oil trading division.

巴菲特投资三十六计之二十四:笑里藏刀

巴菲特警告小心牛市笑里藏刀:投资与投机之间的分界线永远是模糊不清的,从来不会明亮且清晰。尤其是当大多数市场参与者最近都陶醉在赚钱的喜悦中时,投资与投机之间的分界线变得更加模糊不清。没有什么能够比不费吹灰之力就赚到一大笔钱的金钱更容易让人失去理性。

“巴菲特投资36计”之二十四:笑里藏刀
http://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/t/20110613/01549978897.shtml

2011年06月13日 01:54 中国证券网-上海证券报 作者:刘建位

  原文为:信而安之,阴以图之,备而后动,勿使有变。刚中柔外也。

  按语为:兵书云:“辞卑而益备者,进也:……无约而请和者,谋也。”故凡敌人之巧言令色,皆杀机之外露也。

Marc Faber: 'Market Has Peaked Out'



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Mapletree CEO: Optimistic on China and Hong Kong Real Estate



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Dick Bove's (No Doubt) Favorite Bank Stock



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Google Share Price Highlights Apple Valuation Gap



Friday, March 8, 2013

献购价不公平但合理 独立顾问促MISC股东接受献议


(吉隆坡18日讯)MISC公司(MISC,3816,主板贸服股)委任的独立顾问大马投资银行表示,国家石油(PETRONAS)提出的全面收购建议是「不公平但合理」的,並建议股东接受这项献议。

根据MISC公司发佈的独立顾问通知书,国家石油提出以每股5.30令吉向MISC公司展开全面收购是一项「不公平但合理」的献议。

大马投行的分析报告指出,每股5.30令吉的献购价並不公平,原因在於若以加总估值(SOPV)方法估算,MISC公司的合理价格介於5.69令吉至6.10令吉,而该献购价则比上述估值低出6.9%至13.1%。

业绩强劲后市看好 恒大置地可逢低买进


业绩强劲后市看好 恒大置地可逢低买进

(吉隆坡8日讯)恒大置地(TAMBUN,5191,产业组)2012财政年强劲表现,再加上位于威南的旗舰计划珍珠城(Pearl City)后市看好,恒大置地提供逢低买进的良机。

恒大置地于槟城威南兴建综合城镇珍珠城,其发展总值为30亿令吉,发展计划已在2009年动工,预计将在2020年竣工。

该发展计划包括公共设施、娱乐设备、保健及健康中心、零售以及超过1万1000间住宅及产业综合发展城市。

大選陰霾引發資金流竄‧馬幣波幅7.4%‧全球最劇


大選陰霾引發資金流竄‧馬幣波幅7.4%‧全球最劇
Created 03/08/2013 - 17:30

(吉隆坡8日訊)全國大選“陰霾重重"恐引發大馬資金外流風險,令馬幣近期“心情忐忑",3個月的波動率走高2.2%達7.42%,領先全球貨幣。

大馬之前在新興市場的吸資魅力僅遜於墨西哥,惟近期卻因大選可能動搖執政黨55年地位的風聲而“百感交集",馬幣波動分外激烈。

波幅高達7.42%

根據《彭博社》,作為選擇權定價的3個月波動率指標顯示,馬幣年初迄今的波動率已走高2.2%,到7.42%,超過《彭博社》追蹤的47個貨幣。

CapitaLand drops on housing curbs speculation

CapitaLand drops on housing curbs speculation
WRITTEN BY BLOOMBERG
FRIDAY, 08 MARCH 2013 13:11

CapitaLand headed for the lowest close in three months, leading declines among the city’s property stocks, on speculation the government will introduce additional measures to cool the housing market.

Southeast Asia’s biggest developer sank as much as 3.5% to $3.60 and traded at $3.62 as of 12:30 p.m. in Singapore. The stock headed for the lowest close since Dec. 6. City Developments, the city’s second-largest developer, fell 2% to $11.17. Keppel Land lost 1.2% to $4. The benchmark Straits Times Index slipped 0.1%.

曾渊沧:A股完成调整港股才能走出阴影


曾渊沧:A股完成调整港股才能走出阴影

美股终于创历史新高,突破2007年的历史记录。可惜,港股离历史高位仍有一段距离,近一段更是处于调整中,原因是中国A股也正处于调整。中国A股于去年12月开始反弹,回升的速度相当快,两个月上涨25%,也的确需要休息一下,调整调整。只有当A股完成调整,港股才能走出阴影。

股市永远是该低买高卖,趁调整入市。问题只是每个人都希望能捕捉到调整浪的最低一点。我认为是很难很难的。只要你认为你所想买的优质股票出现一个你认为不错的下跌幅度就可以买。因为如果你有信心目前只是处于调整浪,将来调整结束,优质股的股价必然在回升至调整前的价格。

名家观点:量宽10潜在成本•罗比尼


名家观点:量宽10潜在成本•罗比尼
Created 03/08/2013 - 10:44
大部分观察家将量化宽松(QE)等非传统货币政策,视为提振今日低迷景气的必要方法。但QE的功效和风险已开始引发质疑。

这类政策附带10种潜在成本,尤须加以注意。

第一,尽管戳破资产和信用泡沫的纯撙节作为可能导致衰退,但QE政策过份拖迟公民营机构必要的去杠杆化,可能产生僵尸大军:僵尸金融机构、僵尸家庭和僵尸企业,最终至僵尸政府。所以,QE在一段时间后必须逐步退场。

ETP to attract local, foreign investors to M'sian property sector


The Star Online > Business
Friday March 8, 2013
ETP to attract local, foreign investors to M'sian property sector

By LIZ LEE
lizlee@thestar.com.my

KUALA LUMPUR: The Economic Transformation Programme (ETP) will continue to attract both local and foreign investor interest to the Malaysian property sector, said Performance Management and Delivery Unit (Pemandu) chief executive and Minister in the Prime Minister's Department Datuk Seri Idris Jala.

Is Iskandar finally taking off?


BY
COLIN TAN
-1 HOUR 55 MIN AGO
Iskandar Malaysia in Johor has been attracting wide media attention of late, with interest peaking in the middle of last month, when the Prime Ministers of Singapore and Malaysia officiated at the launch of several joint projects undertaken by the private sector of both countries.

After seven long years and several false starts since it was launched in 2006, is Iskandar finally taking off?

Many Singapore investors — especially those interested in the commercial and housing projects in Iskandar — are probably asking themselves whether they should jump in now if they have not already done so.

Frasers Commercial Trust: DPU gets another thrust (OCBC)


Frasers Commercial Trust:
Fair value S$1.52
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.07
versus: Current price S$1.32

DPU gets another thrust
• Expecting further DPU uplift
• Gearing to notch higher
• Current valuations still undemanding

Frasers Commercial Trust (FCOT) announced that it has successfully exercised the right of redemption for 157.1m Series A Convertible Perpetual Preferred Units (CPPUs). While this move is not expected, we expect it to result in an improvement in FCOT’s DPU.

Cosco Corporation: Strong offshore margin was exceptional (DBSV)

Cosco Corporation
FULLY VALUED S$0.95
STI : 3,287.60
Price Target : 12-month S$ 0.80
Strong offshore margin was exceptional
• FY12 results in line; final DPS of 2Scents declared
• Strong offshore margin in 4Q was exceptional
• Maintain FULLY VALUED and TP S$0.80
• Inflexion points are turnaround of the shipping sector, better than expected margins and market share gains in the offshore space

Highlights
High offshore margin in 4Q. Cosco reported net profit of S$105.7m (-24% y-o-y) in FY12, largely in line with our (-5%) and consensus’ estimates (-1%).

Singapore REITs: Strong appetite for growth (DBSV)

Singapore REITs
Strong appetite for growth

• Acquisition theme at play; more activity expected
• Rising bond yields have limited impact on SREITs to date as expectations of growth are being priced in
• Preferred picks FCOT, Cache; further upside for FEHT if higher than expected returns from acquisitions

Acquisition theme at play; more activity expected.
We expected 2013 to be the “Year of Acquisitions” for the S-REITs but the pace of asset purchases has surprised us. S$852m worth of deals were concluded YTD, partly funded by close to S$452m of equity fund raisings. Buoyed by supportive equity markets and strong balance sheets, we sense that S-REITs’ appetite for acquisitions remain strong and believe that developer-sponsored REITs will continue to opportunistically tap their pipelines for growth.

YTL Power : Disappointment over no dividend declared (MIDF)


YTL Power
Price ( 21 February 2013) RM1.54
Target Price RM1.68
Disappointment over no dividend declared

INVESTMENT HIGHLIGHTS
YTLP’s 1HFY13 net profit of RM508.9m is within ours and consensus expectations, constituting 41.0% and 42.0% of full year forecasts respectively.
Lower net earnings across its power and water divisions although YES Wimax losses have narrowed.
No dividend was declared.
We maintain our NEUTRAL stance on YTLP with unchanged target price of RM1.68 based on sum-of-parts (SOP) valuations.

Hi-P International : Better-than-expected 4Q, but the heat is still on… (CIMB)


Hi-P International
Current S$0.70
Target S$0.64
Better-than-expected 4Q, but the heat is still on…

 With the resumption of delayed projects, Hi-P reported results that were better than our estimates. However, we believe that its outlook going forward remains weak, and investors should continue to stay away from this counter.

Hi-P’s 4Q12 core net profit was 64% above our estimates. Its full-year net profit formed 140% of our estimate and 166% of consensus. Despite the beat, we cut our previous FY13-14 numbers by 49-55% to factor in its weak prospects. Our new target price is now pegged at 0.9x CY13 P/BV (-0.5 s.d. below 5yr mean), its recent trough. Underperform maintained.

Nam Cheong: Enter at Placement Price Before Record Results (OSK)


Nam Cheong: Enter at Placement Price Before Record  Results
 (BUY,  S$0.255,  TP:  S$0.33)

Nam Cheong is set to report its strongest-ever results next Monday evening. By our estimates, it will report RM50.8m for the quarter, trumping with ease 4QFY12’s RM26.4m. We are raising our FY12F estimate by 4.5% to RM138m, implying 48% growth over FY12. The share price has retraced 11% since its peak last month, and is now at the placement price of SGD0.255. We view this as a very attractive entry point at 7.8x FY13F EPS.

Sold 9 vessels in the quarter out of 21 for the full year. 4QFY12 was a record in many ways, with Nam Cheong closing almost half its full-year sales (which were themselves a new high) in one quarter alone. Remember that Nam Cheong recognises all revenue on work completed up to the  point of sale immediately, thereafter following percentage-of-completion, and this sets Nam Cheong up for the strongest-ever financial performance.

Marco Polo Marine: Chairman Buys More at High; Signals Confidence (OSK)


Marco Polo Marine: Chairman Buys More at High; Signals Confidence
(BUY,  S$0.425,  TP:  S$0.61)

On Monday, the controlling shareholder and Chairman of MPM purchased another 1m shares at SGD0.42. This is the highest price that he has been willing to pay for MPM shares in the last three years, signaling his strong confidence in the company’s prospects. This is supported by positive industry developments – MPM is the prime beneficiary of the enforced cabotage law in Indonesia which has forced out 20% of the modern AHTS supply. We reiterate our conviction BUY call with a TP of SGD0.61 based on 9x FY13F EPS.

Chairman raises stake to 59.52% at highest price in three years. With the 1m additional shares purchased at SGD0.42 yesterday, Mr. Lee now owns 202.8m shares of MPM or 59.52%. The critical point is the  purchase price – this is the highest that he has been willing to pay in the last three years.

China Minzhong : Indofood investment reinforces the value of Minzhong (SC)


China Minzhong
PRICE as of 20 Feb 2013 SGD 1.14
PRICE TARGET SGD 1.56
Indofood investment reinforces the value of Minzhong

 We reiterate our Outperform rating on China Minzhong (Minzhong), with a price target of SGD 1.56 per share.

 We raise our 2013E and 2014E EPS by 2% and 17%, respectively, to reflect stronger growth from both the processed vegetables (driven by capacity expansion) and fresh vegetables segments (driven by strong yield from industrial farming).

Yangzijiang Shipbuilding: Results largely in line; four more contracts ceased (OCBC)


Yangzijiang Shipbuilding:
Fair value S$0.95
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.05
versus: Current price S$1.00

Results largely in line; four more contracts ceased

• First dip in annual net income since listing
• New orders, but also cessations
• No change in bleak industry outlook
Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (YZJ) reported a 32% YoY fall in revenue to RMB3.6b and a 22% drop in net profit to RMB807.7m in 4Q12, bringing full year revenue and net profit to RMB14.8b and RMB3.6b, respectively.

Malaysian Airline System : The End of a Long Wait? (TA)


Malaysian Airline System
TP: RM 0.90
Last Traded: RM 0.735
The End of a Long Wait?

Review
_ MAS’ FY12 core net loss of RM562.3mn in line with our estimated loss of RM579.4mn, but came in better than consensus’s projected loss of RM708.8mn.

_ The gradual reduction in quarterly losses since 1Q12 and the turnaround in 4Q12 were encouraging. We attribute the improvement to its network rationalisation exercise, as well as margins expansion (EBITDA margins grew 11.1 ppt YoY).

Malaysia Bulk Carriers : The storm in not over yet Unchanged (MIDF)


Malaysia Bulk Carriers
Maintain NEUTRAL
Price (26 Feb 2013) RM1.53
Target Price RM1.53
The storm in not over yet Unchanged

4QFY12 earnings fell sharply by -48.8%yoy to RM17.1m, mainly attributed by historical low dry bulk charter rate. This was partly balanced by the improvements in its associate, POSH.

Benchmark dry bulk index, average BDI decline by -41%yoy to 920 pts in FY12 causing operating cash losses for many vessel owners.

Hi-P: Upgrade to Neutral (Limtan)


07 March 2013
HI-P
S$0.675-HIPS.SI
 Blackberry (a major customer of Hi-P) rose 6.1% last night (adding to its 12% gain so far this year) after the company’s CEO said that the newly launched smart-phone Z10 has drawn more users than expected, both from competitors as well as from upgraders of feature phones.

 Since its launch 2 months ago, sales have been tracking above their expectations and the company is planning to increase production.

 Mobile phone operators have been supportive of Z10 as they want it to be a viable alternative to the current dominant smart-phone players such as Samsung and Apple.

黃金牛市走到盡頭


黃金牛市走到盡頭


環球經濟呈復甦迹象,投資者紛紛棄金從股,黃金交易所買賣基金(ETF)二月持金量減106噸,創紀錄最大單月跌幅,有人民央行之稱的黃金ETF亦大舉沽金,大行如高盛、瑞信和法興近期高呼黃金牛市已告終。

黃金ETF透過買入黃金然後發行股票,為投資者提供便捷及較低門檻的方法,投資黃金,自○三年面世以來,已成為最受歡迎的黃金投資渠道之一。如今黃金ETF大舉沽金,今年首兩個月累積減持140噸,是面世以來最大減持期,反映投資者普遍看淡黃金前景。

曾淵滄專欄 08.03.13:長實減價或屬宣傳


曾淵滄專欄:長實減價或屬宣傳 - 曾淵滄

前天,長實(001)宣佈今年的售樓目標,大增至400億元,昨日馬上有大動作,即將推出的新盤「一號.西九龍」降價一成再送印花稅,是不是為了配合大量售樓的政策而減價?做生意有人惜售,維持高價慢慢賣,有人大減價,速速沽清,前陣子,長實拆售酒店房間,市場上已經有人認為是李嘉誠看淡後市,現在新盤再減價,相信會有更多人認為李嘉誠的確看淡後市。

過去兩年,在SSD(額外印花稅)的打壓下,炒家已經消失,失去炒家的二手市場已非常淡靜,供應非常少,想買樓者不得不轉向地產商買新樓,而地產商也用擠牙膏方式,慢慢推新盤以維持高樓價,如果長實真的改變策略,決定薄利多銷,也許會改變多數人對樓市後市的看法,政府新招一招招的出,實際作用可能還比不上地產商改變戰略所帶來的影響力。

公交系統積極發展‧產託公司受惠大


公交系統積極發展‧產託公司受惠大
Created 03/07/2013 - 10:29
(吉隆坡6日訊)隨著輕快鐵/捷運以及馬新高鐵計劃陸續登場,大馬正迎來公共交通系統興建熱潮,分析員認為,更佳的交通連接網絡將令產業信托投資公司(REIT)從中受惠。

興業研究指出,較大型的產托股中,以柏威年產業信托(PAVREIT,5212,主板產業投資信托組)和雙威產業信托(SUNREIT,5176,主板產業投資信托組)獲益最大。

不過,由於有關公共交通發展大計尚需時完成,短期內的衝擊微乎其微,因此對產托領域仍保持中和評級。

How to Play China Property Now?



银行年报本周拉开序幕 盈利拐点本季度或现



The Rise of China's Middle Class



Does the US Market Rally Have Legs?



金錢爆(美國房市井噴?)



六張圖表告訴你,美股正在醞釀大事件?

2013-0227-57金錢爆(新竹不到湖口)4-3


Thursday, March 7, 2013

Alex Lu : Cautiously Optimistic, Waiting for Break-Outs



依斯干達房產帶動‧雙威前景唱好


依斯干達房產帶動‧雙威前景唱好
Created 03/07/2013 - 17:25
(吉隆坡7日訊)雙威(SUNWAY,5211,主板產業組)管理層透露會在今年內推介首階段值3億5千萬至4億令吉的雙威依斯干達(Sunway Iskandar)計劃,雖然面對大選風險,但興業研究認為該公司仍是較“安全"的公司,加上估值持續遭低估,前景受唱好。

不過,管理層今年的銷售目標較為保守,僅預期取得13億令吉,低於去年達到的18億令吉。同時,這也低於今年潛在推介的15億令吉產業。

亚航的奇迹


亚航的奇迹
环球企业家
候佳
2013-02-25 09:50:03
核心提示:亚航仅用十年时间就完成了颠覆。不仅在2011年的总载客量达到3千万人次,并且让这一数据保持着10%左右的年增速增长。

在做出游计划时喜欢先尝试刷一下亚航特价机票的人,应该向托尼·费尔南德斯(Tony Fernandez)借一点运气:他在2001年收购亚洲航空公司时抢到了超级特价,林吉特(当时约合0.26美元)

费尔南德斯之前有着不错的职业经理人履历,曾担任过华纳唱片马来西亚地区的总经理,但亚航那时却无人看好,作为一家马来西亚国有公司,自1996年开始运营之后就陷入了经营困境。费尔南德斯接盘并出任CEO之后,亚洲航空公司推出的网络订位、无机票、准点保证、

REHDA: Property outlook stable, regardless of poll outcome


REHDA: Property outlook stable, regardless of poll outcome
Business & Markets 2013
Written by Shalini Kumar of theedgemalaysia.com  
Thursday, 07 March 2013 15:27

KUALA LUMPUR (Mar 7): The outlook on the property sector is stable for 2013, said Datuk Ng Seing Liong, immediate past president for Real Estate and Housing Developer’s Association Malaysia (REHDA).

Speaking at a press conference today, Ng said buyers who were looking to add property to their investment portfolio should pay attention to the location and kind of yield it would deliver.

MGCCT jumps in 2013’s biggest Asia IPO


MGCCT jumps in 2013’s biggest Asia IPO
WRITTEN BY BLOOMBERG  
THURSDAY, 07 MARCH 2013 18:37

Mapletree Greater China Commercial Trust, Asia’s biggest share sale this year, surged 11% on its first trading day as investors were attracted by returns higher than those of comparable properties.

The shares gained to $1.03 at the close of trading in Singapore after being offered at 93 cents apiece. The trust earlier rose as much as 12%. They started trading at 2 p.m. and were 29.5 times subscribed.

拓海内外业务 旧街场冀净利双位增长


拓海内外业务 旧街场冀净利双位增长
Created 03/07/2013 - 10:22
(吉隆坡6日讯)旧街场白咖啡(OldTown,5201,主板贸服股)继续积极扩展海内外业务,放眼2013财年将延续营业额与净利双位数增长的佳绩。

旧街场白咖啡执行董事克莱恩斯希华接受《南洋商报》专访时指出,集团展望现财年营收与净利可写下双位数增长,其中主要贡献来源将来自快速消费品(FMCG)业务。

旧街场白咖啡2012财年净利与营业额,分别按年增长11.15%和16.71%,分别取得4465万6000令吉和3亿3311万9000令吉。

大选后料大幅走强 国会解散累积依区产业股


大选后料大幅走强 国会解散累积依区产业股
Created 03/07/2013 - 08:02
(吉隆坡6日讯)去年底已深受投资者欢迎的依斯干达投资主题产业股、料在大选后大幅走强,分析员因而认为,股价一旦在国会解散时趋弱,会是累积股票的好机会。

马银行投资银行分析员说:“根据我们对全国大选做出的基本模拟结果———执政党将以较少的票数再度胜出,市场投资评级可能会上修、今年内将有更优越的表现。”

此情况下,他认为被严重低估的股项或领域评级将被上修,包括交易价比实际净资产价值(RNAV)低31%至52%的产业股。

Analysts cautious despite MAS fine Q4 results


The Star Online > Business
Thursday March 7, 2013
Analysts cautious despite MAS fine Q4 results

PETALING JAYA: Analysts are encouraged by the improvement in performance of Malaysia Airlines (MAS) that is now strengthening its balance sheet through its rights issue but they remain cautious because of the lack of short-term catalysts.

Analysts said they remained sceptical to buy into in the carrier’s shares just yet. Over the past 12 months, MAS shares have fallen more than 48%. It closed at 70.5 sen yesterday.

Tiger Airways : Reaching for parental love again (CIMB)


Tiger Airways
Current S$0.72
Target S$0.63
Reaching for parental love again

Tiger has announced plans to raise S$297m from rights and convertible preference shares. We were surprised as previous guidance did not signal near-term capital-raising. SIA could take up the bulk of the issue in the event of lacklustre demand.

Tiger’s second cash call in 18 months is a necessity top lug associates’ cash burn and improve its balance sheet. We have adjusted for dilution in our FY14-15 EPS, partially mitigated by higher interest income. Accordingly, we lower our SOP target price. Downgrade from Neutral to Underperform with de-rating catalysts expected from further cash burn by its associates.

Chip Eng Seng : Profits almost secured for the next 3 years (Phillip)


Chip Eng Seng Corporation Ltd
Target Price (SGD) n.a.
Closing Price (SGD) 0.820
Profits almost secured for the next 3 years

Report type: Non-rated note
Company Overview
Chip Eng Seng Corporation Limited specializes in building construction activities in the private and public sector. The Company also owns, develops, and invests in properties. In this report, we provide a quick summary of the business for Chip Eng Seng (CES). However, we do not commit to an active coverage and do not have a rating on the stock.

Frasers Commercial Trust; : Plucking low-hanging fruits


Frasers Commercial Trust
Current S$1.29
Target S$1.55
Plucking low-hanging fruits

 Round two of CPPU redemption should provide further DPU uplift, whilst avoiding overhang and dilution from a conversion by CPPU holders. Debt headroom will be limited after this redemption, but we remain positive given attractive yields and other avenues of growth.

We raise FY13-15 DPUs, factoring in further CPPU redemption by the management, offset by an assumption of a conversion by the remaining CPPU holders. Maintain Outperform with a higher DDM-based target price (discount rate: 7.7%). We see catalysts from further yield-enhancing moves.

Malaysia-Singapore relations go a leg up (CIMB)


Malaysia-Singapore relations go a leg up
Malaysia and Singapore unveiled an array of major joint venture projects following the 4th Malaysia-Singapore Leaders' Retreat. This includes the proposed high-speed rail project to Singapore and two wellness projects in Iskandar Malaysia.

 Although these projects are not surprises and have long been in the works, they nonetheless represent a positive step in cementing the relationship between the two countries. Maintain Neutral on Malaysia and our year-end KLCI target of 1,670pts. Our preference continues to be for defensive sectors, such as brewery, REITs and utilities.

Landmarks: FY12 result in line (DBSV)


Landmarks Berhad
BUY RM0.92
KLCI : 1,627.35
Price Target : 12-Month RM 2.45
FY12 result in line
• 4Q12 profit was within our expectation at RM0.3m; earnings were lifted by larger associate profit of RM3.9m
• First resort under Phase 1 of Treasure Bay to open in late 2013
• Maintain BUY rating and RM2.45 TP

Highlights
4Q12 earnings in line. Landmarks recorded RM0.3m profit in 4Q12 to close FY12 with RM10m net loss, within our expectation. 4Q12 earnings were lifted by larger profit from associate MSL Properties, driven by a revaluation gain for the MSL Wangsa Walk Mall investment property. Hotel PBT contribution also grew 17% y-o-y to RM5.9m driven by higher occupancy and revenue per available room.

Saizen REIT: Re-gearing for expansion (NRA)


Saizen REIT
Current Price S$0.190
Fair Value S$0.214
Re-gearing for expansion

 2QFY13 NPI and half-year DPU were ahead of our expectations. 2QFY13 rental revenue remained relatively stable, growing 1.0% QoQ to JPY940.4m while net property income (NPI) improved a mere 0.2% QoQ to JPY667.2m largely due to a 19.3% QoQ rise in leasing and marketing expenses. Despite the modest growth, NPI came in ahead of our expectations due to lower than expected property operating expenses. 2QFY13 net operating income (NOI) rose strongly by 8.3% QoQ to JPY488.7m, lifted largely by lower interest costs (-43.8% QoQ) ensuing from a translation gain of JPY55.4m in 2QFY13 from Singapore-dollar denominated warrant proceeds following the yen depreciation. Excluding this gain, interest costs remained relatively stable.

Singapore REITs : Positive trends in 4Q but valuations catching up (DB)

Singapore REITs
Positive trends in 4Q but valuations catching up
Top picks
CapitaCommercial Trust (CACT.SI),SGD1.64
Mapletree Logistics Trust (MAPL.SI),SGD1.23
Mapletree Industrial Trust (MAPI.SI),SGD1.39

Right direction but valuations not compelling; integrated developers preferred
4Q trends were steady with organic growth well supported, sound capital mgmt and proactive asset mgmt. Despite compressing asset yields, declining cost of capital has enabled accretive acquisitions which could help boost growth particularly for REITs with visible pipelines. However, with valuations now tighter than LT avg, DPU growth decelerating and near-term risk from capital raising, we maintain our preference for the commercial developers.

Hi-P International : Earnings yet to stabilise (DBSV)


Hi-P International
HOLD S$0.665
STI : 3,248.26
(Upgrade from FULLY VALUED)
Price Target : 12-month S$ 0.71 (Prev S$ 0.70)
Earnings yet to stabilise

• FY13 earnings expected to rise, but outlook is weaker than our earlier forecast; FY13F cut by 32%
• Growth drivers are Blackberry launches, better sales mix and further cost restructuring
• Raised TP to S$0.71 following shift to 1x FY13 P/BV; Upgrade to Hold on valuation

4Q12 beat forecast but FY12 earnings hit a new low. 4Q12 net profit of S$15.6m comfortably beat our S$10m estimate as gross margin of 10.7% was significantly better than the 7.3% recorded in 9M12, due to a change in product mix.

Singapore Airlines: Are weak fundamentals already priced in - which of the brokers is right?


Profit boosted by non-operating items

20/2/2013 – Analysts are divided over whether SIA will see more challenges ahead, weighing on the shareprice, or whether the negatives are already priced into the stock.

Singapore Airlines (SIA) expect loads and yields of both its passenger and cargo businesses to remain under pressure.

The strong Singapore Dollar is another challenge, because revenue earned in other currencies translates into fewer Sing Dollars back home.

The company just announced earnings for Q3 FY13:

Noble: Results a little under; looking toward a better 2013 (RHB)


Noble: Results a little under; looking toward a better 2013
(BUY, S$1.19, TP: S$1.45)

Noble reported 4Q12 PATMI of USD91m (-14% y-o-y, +21% q-o-q) which came in slightly under our expectations due to losses from supply chain assets and losses from associates partially offset by a tax credit. FY12 reported PATMI grew 9% to USD471m. We fine-tune our FY13 assumptions but bottom line remains largely unchanged. We remain positive on Noble due to: (1) Recovery in agri and continued expansion for energy to drive earnings, (2) cost savings from finance and SAO (selling, admin and operating) costs. Maintain BUY with TP of SGD1.45 based on 13.5x core FY13 EPS, equal to its five year historical average.

Low-quality beats (CIMB)


Low-quality beats
More companies beat expectations than missed in Singapore’s FY12 results season. However, the drivers were low quality, including tax write-backs, revaluation gains and market-related trading gains. This does not inspire much confidence that earnings growth will pick up.

 During the results season, we cut our FY13-14 market EPS by 0.7-1.5%. With the market having performed well in 2012 and early 2013, we downgrade it from Neutral to Underweight, given the cost pressures ahead and lack of earnings growth. Our end-CY13 FSSTI target is nudged up from 3,316 to 3,380 (bottom-up, implying 13.7x CY14 P/E) for stronger book values in 4Q12. Our top picks are GENHK, Thai Bev and UOL.

標普料內銀不良貸款率升至3%


標普料內銀不良貸款率升至3%
http://paper.wenweipo.com   [2013-03-07]

 香港文匯報訊(記者 陳遠威)信貸評級機構標準普爾預期,今年中國內地經濟向好,內地銀行展望為「穩定」,雖然內銀的不良貸款比率或將由去年底2%上升至今年底的3%,資產收益率(ROA)亦可能跌至0.9%至1%水平,但相信風險程度仍屬可控。

 標普信用分析師曾怡景昨在電話會議上表示,受累於環球經濟波動,內地出口增長放緩、企業盈利受壓,加上地方政府債務問題構成風險,以及新樓市調控政策帶來壓力,內銀盈利能力及資產質素大打折扣,預料今年底不良貸款比率將上升至3%。內銀信用情況及財務表現或將惡化,料資產收益率可能由1.1%跌至1%,但相信在盈利支撐下,風險程度可控,故今年展望穩定。

曾淵滄專欄07.03.13:炒環保股轉身要夠快


曾淵滄專欄:炒環保股轉身要夠快 - 曾淵滄

美股終於創歷史新高,過去一個月裏,美股曾經兩度出現較大的跌幅,一次是聯儲局公佈會議紀錄後,另一次是意大利國會選舉後,這兩次的下跌,我都安慰大家不必太擔心,我堅持這只是美股創新高之前的陣痛。美股創新高,對全世界的股市都能起鼓舞作用,大家可以更樂觀地看待本地股市。

昨日又一家重要的上市公司公佈業績,那是東方海外(316),純利達2.96億美元,上升62.6%,其中貨櫃運輸物流業盈利上升1.3倍,這是有指標作用的數字,這說明航運業的最低潮應該過去了,美國正在復蘇,對航運業有利。東方海外的業績可為其他航運股帶來憧憬。

中海油收购尼克森意义几何

中海油收购尼克森意义几何

财新记者 龙周园 2013年03月06日 08:14 来源于 财新网

中國業務表現低迷‧百盛3年財測調低

中國業務表現低迷‧百盛3年財測調低
Created 03/06/2013 - 18:36
(吉隆坡6日訊)百盛(PARKSON,5657,主板貿服組)首半年淨利按年挫32%至1億3千330萬令吉,基於中國與越南營運低迷,儘管農曆新年有助推高下一季業務,興業研究預計在中國各主要城市面臨劇烈競爭,而調低今、明、後財政年財測11%至17%。

興業說,中國業務的低迷表現將繼續拖累整體盈利表現,何況在經濟復甦時刻,中國各主要城市的零售業面臨劇烈競爭。

截至2012年12月31日首半年,百盛淨利明顯低於市場預期,只達預期的32%至38%預期。受中國業務拖累,儘管營業額按年增長3.8%至17億7千萬令吉,營運盈利卻按年跌28.4%至3億1千140萬令吉,賺益亦跌7.9百分點至17.6%。

QFII凶猛



Standard Chartered Fined $667M for Iran Violations



Maersk Line to Add Vessels to Singapore Base



Why Apple's No Longer a Must-Have Stock



银行股受累于房价调控 机构研判现分歧



China Maintains Growth Target at 7.5% for 2013



Wednesday, March 6, 2013

BA Merrill Lynch pegs AirAsia low at RM1.85


BA Merrill Lynch pegs AirAsia low at RM1.85
Business & Markets 2013
Written by Ho Wah Foon of theedgemalaysia.com  
Wednesday, 06 March 2013 17:30

KUALA LUMPUR (Mar 6): Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BAML), saying it is keeping its “negative” stance on AIRASIA BHD [] ahead of the general elections, has given a price objective of RM1.85 to the airline -- a 37.5% discount to its last traded price of RM2.96.

The research house said: “We believe increased news flow over Malindo’s launch in the coming weeks and fears of how severe the resulting price erosion will be, as well as uncertainty over the upcoming Malaysian elections, will keep the stock under pressure.”

Mapletree’s Greater China Trust draws investors with yield


Mapletree’s Greater China Trust draws investors with yield
WRITTEN BY BLOOMBERG  
WEDNESDAY, 06 MARCH 2013 16:09

Mapletree Greater China Commercial Trust, Asia’s biggest share sale this year, was 29.5 times subscribed as assets including the Festival Walk shopping mall in Hong Kong offered higher returns than comparable properties.

The property trust, which starts trading in Singapore at 2 p.m. local time tomorrow, raised $1.6 billion offering shares at 93 Singapore cents apiece. The price reflects a 5.6% yield for the year ending March 2014, compared with the 4.2% return for the Bloomberg Asia REIT Index.

Banyan Tree Posts Higher Profit; Sees New Opportunities From Property Venture


01 MARCH 2013
Banyan Tree Posts Higher Profit; Sees New Opportunities From Property Venture
By Daxx Chong

“We are seeing a sustainable upturn in our existing business as well as validation of our new strategy.”

That was the confident line Banyan Tree Holdings’ executive chairman Ho Kwon Ping made when he kicked-off the analyst and media briefing held yesterday.

DBS named Asia's safest bank for 5th year running


DBS named Asia's safest bank for 5th year running

DBS was also ranked the 12th safest bank globally by Global Finance in its April 2013 half-year update of the world's safest bank rankings. This is up one notch from August 2012.

Tue, Mar 05, 2013
AsiaOne

SINGAPORE - DBS Bank announced today that it has been named "Safest Bank in Asia" for the fifth year running by Global Finance in its April 2013 half-year update of the world's safest bank rankings.

2013 to be better year for Malaysian semiconductor players


2013 to be better year for Malaysian semiconductor players
Business & Markets 2013

Written by Charlotte Chong of the edgedaily.com  
Wednesday, 06 March 2013 15:28

KUALA LUMPUR (MAR 6): This year would be better for Malaysia's semiconductor players, according to MIDF Research, based on global sales in January.

The US-based Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) on March 4 reported that global semiconductor sales rose 3.8% year-on-year in January to US$24.05 billion from US$23.16 billion a year earlier.

Shipping Rates Rally Longest Since ’04 as BofA Sees Glut Ending


Shipping Rates Rally Longest Since ’04 as BofA Sees Glut Ending
By Michelle Wiese Bockmann & Rob Sheridan - Mar 5, 2013

Shipping rates for Panamax vessels hauling grains rallied for the longest in more than eight years and Bank of America Corp. said a fleet glut that decimated earnings is diminishing.

Rates for the biggest vessels to navigate the Panama Canal gained 2.1 percent to $8,637 a day, the 20th consecutive increase, according to prices today from the Baltic Exchange, a London-based publisher of freight costs on more than 50 maritime routes.

MAS turnaround plan starts to show results


MAS turnaround plan starts to show results
Business & Markets 2013

Written by Esther Lee of theedgemalaysia.com  
Wednesday, 06 March 2013 09:15

KUALA LUMPUR: The business turnaround plan by MALAYSIAN AIRLINE SYSTEM BHD [] (MAS) that was launched early last year has started to yield results, said group CEO Ahmad Jauhari Yahya yesterday.

He said the financial performance in the third and fourth quarters of 2012 was evidence of the airline’s turnaround.

不受股价下滑影响 马航通过附加股筹31 亿


不受股价下滑影响 马航通过附加股筹31 亿
Created 03/06/2013 - 11:55
(八打灵再也5日讯)虽有传闻指马航(MAS,3786,主板贸服股)股价下滑,将影响附加股的献议,但马航最终仍获得多数股东批准,批准这项31亿令吉的筹资计划。

马航建议将每股面值1令吉的股票,削资90仙至每股面值10仙,再发行附加股以筹资31亿令吉,这项献议今日在股东特别大会上,获得大部分股东赞同通过。

总执行长阿末昭哈里在记者会上表示,这项削资和附加股计划,料将在今年上半年完成,筹得资金将会用作资本开销和营运资本,而发售价将会待获得所有批准、接近执行日时再宣布。

<《福布斯》2013全球富豪榜 奥蒂嘉取代 身家飙52% 巴菲特跌出最富三甲


福布斯》2013全球富豪榜 奥蒂嘉取代 身家飙52% 巴菲特跌出最富三甲
Created 03/06/2013 - 12:22
(纽约5日讯)美国《福布斯》杂志周一揭晓最新2013年全球富豪排行榜,墨西哥大亨卡洛斯斯林姆连续第4度勇夺首富荣衔。

但让人意外的是,西班牙服饰巨擘Zara创办人奥蒂嘉,过去1年来身价暴涨,竟硬是把十余年来稳居前3名的股神巴菲特给挤出三甲。

Inari given 5-yr tax-exemption for technology plant


Inari given 5-yr tax-exemption for technology plant
Business & Markets 2013

Written by Ho Wah Foon of theedgemalaysia.com  
Tuesday, 05 March 2013 18:49

KUALA LUMPUR (March 5): Inari Bhd  announced that its unit, Inari TECHNOLOGY [] Sdn Bhd, has been granted full tax exemption in relation to the production of miniature integrated front end module for wireless millimetre-wave devices for five years from 1 April 2012 to 30 March 2017.

In an announcement, the ACE-listed company said this follows the completed qualification for the Pioneer Status Incentive for High Technology Industry under the Promotion of Investment Act 1986.

MAS ready for takeoff to new heights


The Star Online > Business
Wednesday March 6, 2013
MAS ready for takeoff to new heights

Shareholders approve rights issue and capital restructuring

By LEONG HUNG YEE
hungyee@thestar.com.my

PETALING JAYA: Malaysia Airlines (MAS) has cleared the last hurdle to undertake a rights issue to raise RM3.1bil, having obtained shareholders' approval at its extraordinary general meeting (EGM) yesterday.

Buyout saga of MISC likely to set stage for face-off between Petronas and EPF


The Star Online > Business
Wednesday March 6, 2013
Buyout saga of MISC likely to set stage for face-off between Petronas and EPF

PETALING JAYA: The ongoing buyout of shipping giant MISC Bhd pits its owner, the national oil corporation, against the country's largest pension fund, setting the stage for what could be an interesting face-off in corporate Malaysia.

On Friday, Tan Sri Azlan Zainol, the chief executive officer of the Employees Provident Fund (EPF), said that it was seeking a better price than the RM5.30 a share Petroliam Nasional Bhd (Petronas) had offered for MISC.

曾渊沧:港股可趁低入市 看好五只地产股


昨晚美股初段气势极佳,道琼斯指数一度升至14149点,高2007年的历史新高不足50点。但是,美国国会否决民主党的削赤方案,美股由高处急跌,最后反升为跌,道琼斯指数收市跌21点。

过去一个月,道指在很接近历史新高的水平出现多次的大震荡。美国联储局会议记录公布那一天,出现一个大震荡。意大利国会选举出现“悬浮”国会,政府破产,美股再出现大震荡。不过,每次震荡之后不久,美股再度创近年新高,再度逼近历史新高。因此,我认为这只是股市在创新高之前的震荡。

NeraTel: Exciting growth ahead (OSK)


NeraTel: Exciting growth ahead
 (BUY,  S$0.585,  TP:  S$0.72)
NeraTel, which has largely been looked upon as a defensive stock, is now embarking on a journey of exciting growth. In view  of the 1) strong and supportive parent, 2) robust telco spending outlook, 3) stellar performance from its POS business and 4) a new Myanmar story, we reiterate BUY for NeraTel with a higher TP of S$0.72 based on its 5-yr historical average of 9.8x FY14 P/E. The counter remains as the top pick for our Singapore tech sector coverage.

Supportive parent allows for collaborative opportunities.  NeraTel’s new parent, Northstar, allows for potential collaborative opportunities with one of its telco equipment business which own and charter out  radio masts and towers. NeraTel could gain business through supplying radio equipment used in these towers.  

CitySpring: Decent 3Q results, cash earnings within expectations (S&P)

CitySpring Infrastructure Trust
Price: SGD0.45
Decent 3Q results, cash earnings within expectations
Earnings continue to benefit from higher gas tariff. CitySpring’s 3QFY13 (Mar.) results reflect continued decent performance with net profit at SGD6.5 mln, rebounding from year ago net loss of SGD3.8 mln. This marks a continued improvement as fuel cost pressures at subsidiary City Gas have eased since April 2012 allowing gas tariff adjustments to catch up. This is the same reason for the improvement seen in 2QFY13 earnings. To recap, under recovery of fuel costs due to lagging gas tariff adjustments led to City Gas’ net loss of SGD4.4 mln in FY12 and a marginal profit of SGD0.4 mln in 3QFY12. By comparison, City Gas posted a net profit of SGD5.4 mln in 3QFY13 and we estimate it should record a net profit of SGD28.0 mln in FY13 helping to drive our projected CitySpring FY13 net profit to SGD10.7 mln.

KNM Group Bhd - New Sulphur Recovery Unit Contract


KNM Group Bhd -
Price Target :0.53
Last Price :0.47
New Sulphur Recovery Unit Contract

News    Yesterday, KNM ("KNMG") announced that it had secured a Letter of Award ("LOA") from TAIF-NK (a production and investment company comprising 67 subsidiaries and affiliated companies operating in various areas with principal activities in oil and  gas processing and petrochemistry, telecommunication, building and construction, banking and investments, and services) to supply a sulphur recovery unit ("SRU") for the heavy residue conversion complex ("HRCC Project") located at Nizhnekamsk, Republic of Tatarstan, Russia.

Unisem - Within Expectations

Unisem -
Price Target :0.99
Last Price :0.92
Within Expectations

Unisem's FY12  core  loss  of  RM9.5m  was  in  line  with  our  estimates  but  below consensus.  It  declared  a  final  dividend  of  MYR0.02/share.  We  are  trimming  our FY13/FY14  core  earnings  forecasts  by  23%/9%  as  we  had  previously  been  too aggressive  with  our  margin  assumptions.  Maintain  NEUTRAL,  with  our  FV  revised lower to MYR0.99 based on 0.7x CY13 P/NTA.

Posting an FY12 core loss of RM9.5m. Unisem's FY12 core loss of RM9.5m was within our expectation but missed consensus forecast by about RM4m.

Malaysia Airlines : Breaking even with higher load factor (MIDF)


Malaysia Airlines
Price (28 Feb2013) 0.74
Target Price 0.78
Maintain NEUTRAL
Breaking even with higher load factor

INVESTMENT HIGHLIGHTS
Improved load factor with plenty of room to grow fare yield to improve earnings.
Cut in 10% capacity but quickly recovered lost traffic, resulting in smaller revenue losses.
61% dilution effect from rights issue proposal.
Maintain NEUTRAL with lower TP of RM0.78 on basis of the dilution impacts and the TP is derived from EV/EBITDAR of 5.9x which is on par with the regional peers.

Malaysia Property: Stronger Singapore presence (DBSV)


Stronger Singapore presence
Medini wellness centre launched - largest Singaporean investment in Iskandar Malaysia todate
CapitaLand’s entry a strong show of confidence, more Singapore FDIs may follow
Large landowners are biggest beneficiaries: UEM Land, Iskandar Waterfront, Tebrau Teguh, Crescendo

O ff t h e b l o cks. Khazanah-Temasek’s wellness centre in Medini was officially launched yesterday by the Singapore and Malaysian Prime Ministers.

Unisem: Decision to take a one-off impairment is positive (MIDF)


Unisem (M) Bhd
Price (18 Feb. 2013) RM0.99
Target Price RM1.25
Decision to take a one-off impairment is positive

INVESTMENT HIGHLIGHTS
• Unisem recorded a loss of –RM20.2m in 4Q12, due to impairment, provision and retrenchment costs totaling RM22.0m. This expected loss translates into full FY12 loss of – RM33.3m.

• EBITDA margin for FY12 was decent at 13.7% despite lower revenue. This is due to tight cost controls.

• Higher ASP has already been implemented whilst headcount is still being reduced to control cost.

CapitaLand : Gaining a Foothold in Iskandar (KE)


CapitaLand
Buy (unchanged)
Share price: SGD3.95
Target price: SGD4.27 (unchanged)
Gaining a Foothold in Iskandar

 CapitaLand to take 51% stake in project. CapitaLand announced that together with Iskandar Waterfront Sdn Bhd (IWSB) and Temasek Holdings, it will acquire and develop a 3.1m-sq ft A2 Island at Danga Bay, within the Iskandar Region. CapitaLand, IWSB and Temasek will hold stakes of 51%, 40% and 9% in the project respectively.

Projected GDV estimated at SGD3.2b. The cost for the freehold land amounts to MYR811m (SGD324m), or MYR261 psf of land (SGD104 psf land).

SINGAPORE Strategy “Rail” Impact From The Game Changer (UOBKH)


Strategy
“Rail” Impact From The Game Changer

We highlight potential long-term impact from Malaysia’s and Singapore’s plan to build a high-speed rail link by 2020. Sectors potentially impacted include aviation, construction, hospitality & gaming and developers.

What’s New
• A game changer but over the long term. During the Singapore- Malaysia Leaders’ Retreat, PM Lee Hsien Loong and PM Dato’ Sri Mohd Najib jointly announced an agreement to build a high-speed rail (HSR) link between Kuala Lumpur and Singapore.

Shipping: CKYH plans to restart NE4 (CIMB)


 CKYH plans to restart NE4
Shipping markets seem to have entered a downturn phase post-Lunar New Year, with rates across container, capesize and VLCC all falling from the previous week. Carriers plying the Asia-Europe trade have lost all of the GRIs imposed on 10 January.

 Both capesize and VLCC rates are trading near their all-time lows, as excess supply continues to pile on the pressure. We maintain Neutral on shipping overall. Our top pick is Pacific Basin, which we upgraded to an Outperform last week. Its 2H12 profits came in above expectations despite the weak bulk market, while the stock is trading at a sizable discount to its SOP.

Consumer sector: Outperform STI in 2013? (OCBC)


Consumer sector: Outperform STI in 2013?
Companies included in the FTSE Straits Times Consumer Services Index showed continued improvement in the 4QCY12 earnings season with both top and bottom-line figures exceeding consensus estimates. Revenue was stronger than expected (+10.3% over forecasts) while a combination of cost-control initiatives and favourable input prices during the period saw average earnings per share beat consensus projections by 16.6%. In our view, this mirrors the growth in contribution from overseas markets – particularly EM-Asia – as domestic retail sales figures were tepid during the same period. In the coming months, we continue to favour counters with greater EM-Asia exposure but urge investor caution as the recent upward re-rating of the sector has led to some counters being priced ahead of fundamentals. As such, we also maintain our preference for counters with defensive qualities like Sheng Siong [BUY; FV: S$0.69]. Maintain NEUTRAL on the overall consumer sector.

Genting acquisition of unfinished Las Vegas resort welcomed


The Star Online > Business
Wednesday March 6, 2013
Genting acquisition of unfinished Las Vegas resort welcomed

PETALING JAYA: The acquisition of the unfinished resort on the Las Vegas strip in the United States by Genting Bhd is expected to bode well for the company, according to analysts.

“The acquisition provides a good platform for the Genting group to venture into gaming operations in Las Vegas at an attractive price,” said Alliance Research in its report.

MARCH 2013 Wilmar: Will It Continue The Downtrend?


01 MARCH 2013
Wilmar: Will It Continue The Downtrend?
By Robin Han

Wilmar has been quite weak for the past one month. Both its moving average (MA) and MACD indicate that it is already in a downtrend. In fact, Wilmar started going down even when the Straits Times Index (STI) was holding well and tested the high for a few times. Recently, Wilmar formed a head and shoulder pattern, which is quite significant and indicates a mid to long term bearish signal. This head and shoulder pattern suggests that Wilmar is likely to continue this downtrend. We may consider shorting on strength. If it rebounds above the 38.2 percent Fibonacci level, it may be a good entry to short.

Buffett's Advice to Apple's Tim Cook: Ignore Einhorn


Buffett's Advice to Apple's Tim Cook: Ignore Einhorn
Warren Buffett has some advice for Apple CEO Tim Cook on how to respond to activist investor David Einhorn's very public calls for some of the company's vast cash holdings to be returned to shareholders.

Ignore him.

During a three-hour, live appearance on CNBC's "Squawk Box" on Monday, Buffett said: "The best thing you can do with a business is run it well. And if you run it well, the stock behaves fine over time."

Noting that he has also faced criticism, especially during the four periods over the decades that Berkshire Hathaway's stock had lost half its value, Buffett said if he were running Apple "I would ignore (Einhorn). I would run the business in such a manner as to create the most value over the next five or 10 years. You can't run a business to try and run the stock up every day."

曾淵滄專欄 06.03.13:13億人民撐起名牌


曾淵滄專欄:13億人民撐起名牌 - 曾淵滄

昨日恒指如過山車,完全無法捉摸,也無法解釋理由。美股前晚造好,總理溫家寶在人大開幕的工作報告,帶出正面利好前景,內地股市大幅反彈,但是港股表現卻反覆得很,是不是背後有大戶在角力?


國務院在人大開幕前幾天出狠招打壓樓市,不過,昨日溫家寶的工作報告,則為股民帶來眾多憧憬,溫家寶除了談過去五年的成就外,也向下一任政府提「建議」,當然,所謂「建議」,絕對不是溫家寶這一任政府的意思,而是下一任政府想做的事,但是,為了尊重現任政府而通過溫家寶工作報告提出「建議」。

Apple value falls below S$400 billion, as Warren Buffett says ‘ignore critics’


Apple value falls below S$400 billion, as Warren Buffett says ‘ignore critics’

NEW YORK — Apple’s value fell below US$400 billion (S$497 billion) for the first time in a year yesterday, as the prominent investor Warren Buffett said the company should ignore its critics and stick to running its business.

At the close of business in New York, the tech giant’s stock price stood at US$420.05, a 52-week low, fuelling the demands of those who say it should pay back some of its US$137 billion cash pile to shareholders. The share price continued to fall in after-hours trading.

Follow Me:中行超值 績前趁低吸 - 高彰坡


Follow Me:中行超值 績前趁低吸 - 高彰坡

1)銀行股公佈全年業績,由東亞(023)、滙控(005)及恒生(011)揭開序幕,東亞及恒生業績進度均達預期,即使滙控稍遜,但也未至令人失望程度,股價昨日低開後已迅速回穩,因此期待銀行股在公佈業績期間會有突出表現,向低PB、低PE與高股息銀行股入手,或有意外收穫。對象之一,是中國銀行(3988),目標4.61元,較現價3.54元,可升30%。

四大行中估值最吸引

中國四大銀行,即中行、農業銀行(1288)、工商銀行(1398)與建設銀行(939)均已在港上市,地位相若,代表中國最雄厚的金融資本力量,因此理論上賺錢能力、影響力與股價估值水平,不計市場的評估,應同站於一個十分接近的水平。若以此為出發點,目前四大行中,估值最吸引是中行,主要是股價落後其他三行,提供低價買入機會。

依斯干達效應‧柔佛房產成大贏家


依斯干達效應‧柔佛房產成大贏家
Created 03/06/2013 - 17:30
(吉隆坡6日訊)今年或崛起為大馬第二大產業上市公司的依斯干達浮城控股(Iskandar Waterfront Holdings),料為近期掀起的依斯干達風潮錦上添花,隨著依斯干達計劃自推出已帶動柔佛房地產價格飆升多達40%,產業領域仍是依斯干達效應轉強的最大贏家,產業股重估潮伺機待發。

不過,由於依斯干達計劃非落在人口集中的地方,依斯干達效應激起的溢出效應可能有限,令短期受惠領域可能限制在和產業相關的建築和服務領域。

政府最近加重火力吸引外資,並加強和新加坡合作,放眼在2018年和2020年前,分別完成馬新城市軌道交通系統(RTS)和馬新高鐵(HSR)計劃,令市場掀起依斯干達效應。

资本重组通过 马航专注转亏为盈


资本重组通过 马航专注转亏为盈

(吉隆坡5日讯)马航(MAS,3786,主板贸服股)股东周二通过管理层之前所提出的一篮子资本重组活动,包括削资和发附加股等。而管理层相信,马航很快便能恢復健康的財务水平,並专注于扭亏为盈。

马航今天召开股东特別大会提呈4项议案,即:削减股票面值、削减股票溢价户头、修改公司章程,以及发附加股。这些议案最终悉数获得股东的通过(举手投票),即使部份股东提出反对。

其中,削减股票面值和股票溢价户头,分別获得89%和93%的赞成票。

Bull vs Bear: What's the Road Ahead For China?



Warren Buffett's Top Dividend Stocks



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The Takeaway: Berkshire to Face Tough Questions



China Property Stocks Falls Most Since 2009



Gold Climbs 12 Straight Years: Losing Its Shine?



Tuesday, March 5, 2013

部份小股東反對‧馬航削資附加股計劃通過


部份小股東反對‧馬航削資附加股計劃通過
Created 03/05/2013 - 17:26
(吉隆坡5日訊)馬航(MAS,3786,主板貿服組)為表決削資和附加股議案而舉行的特別股東大會今日開跑,雖然遭小部份股東投下反對票嗆聲,惟議案最終仍在大多數股東力挺下順利通過。

根據場內人士透露,今日議案是以在場股東舉手方式表決,結果每股削資90仙建議最終以75贊成票對9反對票通過,附加股獻議則以69贊成票對3反對票通過。

MAS shareholders approve capital reduction, rights issue


MAS shareholders approve capital reduction, rights issue
Business & Markets 2013

Written by Esther Lee of theedgemalaysia.com  
Tuesday, 05 March 2013 13:39

KUALA LUMPUR (March 5): MALAYSIAN AIRLINE SYSTEM BHD [] (MAS) shareholders have approved the firm's proposed capital reduction and rights issue which will raise the required funds to finance the company's revamp and expansion.  

Group chief executive officer Ahmad Jauhari Yahya said both proposals had received strong support from shareholders at the company's extraordinary general meeting (EGM) today.

10 offbeat dividend-paying stocks for the brave hearts


10 offbeat dividend-paying stocks for the brave hearts
Personal Finance

Written by Cindy Yeap of The Edge Malaysia  
Monday, 04 March 2013 00:00

TRADITIONAL dividend plays in Malaysia like telecommunication stocks and real estate investment trusts saw yields compressed by over 100 bps last year as investors sought cover from global volatility. We highlight 10 companies that have been paying decent dividends in recent years, some of which are small caps that may just grow into something bigger with time.

沙巴動亂若無法快速平息‧7大領域受衝擊


沙巴動亂若無法快速平息‧7大領域受衝擊
Created 03/05/2013 - 17:30
(吉隆坡5日訊)菲南武裝分子蘇祿軍上週五入侵沙巴東部沿岸,引起市場關注大馬各領域和相關股項受到的潛在衝擊,分析員認為若動亂無法在短期內平息,種植領域將受較大影響,至於交通、銀行、通訊、電力、建築和產業領域也可能受波及,多家在沙巴有涉足投資各業務的上市公司,所受衝擊不一。

種植股以聯土全球(FGV,5222,主板種植組)和吉隆坡甲洞(KLK,2445,主板種植組)受影響最大;交通業務方面,大馬機場(AIRPORT,5014,主板貿服組)和亞洲航空(AIRASIA,5099,主板貿服組)也因涉足沙巴頗深而受關注。

Stock picks for post election


Stock picks for post election
Business & Markets 2013

Written by Shalini Kumar of theedgemalaysia.com  
Tuesday, 05 March 2013 09:33

KUALA LUMPUR: If Barisan Nasional (BN) were to regain two-thirds of the Dewan Rakyat in the impending 13th general election (GE13), the potential beneficiaries could include banks, CONSTRUCTION [] companies, TENAGA NASIONAL BHD [] and Tan Sri Syed Mokhtar Al-Bukhary’s companies, said UOB KayHian’s head of research Vincent Khoo.

However, should the ruling coalition lose the simple majority, sectors such as banking, construction and oil & gas, together with perceived government-linked companies could come under selling pressure.

Salcon diversifies into property development


Salcon diversifies into property development
Business & Markets 2013

Written by Kamarul Anwar of theedgemalaysia.com  
Tuesday, 05 March 2013 09:38

KUALA LUMPUR: CONSTRUCTION [] group SALCON BHD []’s proposed diversification into property development was mooted to reduce its reliance on its core business which is related to the water sector.

Its water-related business has seen order book and revenue lowered  because of reduced government spending on major water infrastructure projects, delays in project implementation and an uncertain sociopolitical environment.

Tiger Airways to raise $293.5m for expansion, repay debt


Tiger Airways to raise $293.5m for expansion, repay debt
WRITTEN BY BLOOMBERG  
TUESDAY, 05 MARCH 2013 09:27

Tiger Airways Holdings, the budget airline partly owned by Singapore Airlines, plans to raise $293.5 million to help fund its operations in Indonesia and the Philippines as well as to repay debt.

Tiger Air will sell 164.3 million new shares at 47 cents each, 34% discount to yesterday’s closing price, according to a statement to the Singapore stock exchange. It will also offer shareholders convertible bonds for every four shares they own, the carrier said.

散户抽身外资增持 马股选前有惊喜


散户抽身外资增持 马股选前有惊喜
Created 03/05/2013 - 08:22
(吉隆坡4日讯)MIDF研究独排众议、认为外资见散户因避大选风险抽身马股而持续买入的情况,为股市创造交易机会,3月份可能捎来惊喜。

MIDF研究分析员表示,为了规避即将来临的第13届全国大选,散户今年首两个月已从马股大举抽身,撤出约20亿令吉资金,相当于2012全年的一半。

此举相对今年已买入46亿令吉的外资,MIDF研究分析员认为尽管马股今年迄今已回落,但“内卖外买”的情况最有可能在大选前一直持续。因此,他们乐观地认为,富时隆综指将在高水平“正常化”。

郭Sir教路:A股未宜過分看淡


郭Sir教路:A股未宜過分看淡
本周投資市場將聚焦環球五大央行進行的議息會議內容,各國央行會否跟隨日本央行的舉動,加大力度推行量寬措施,成為大家關注焦點。除此之外,內地兩會已在本周初正式開幕,讀者可留意與環保相關的太陽能、風電及節能照明板塊股份,將乘着國策概念,繼續成為熱炒板塊。

然而,另一邊廂,國務院終在上周五發布新一輪樓市調控措施,「國五條」之實施除了提高內地部分城市二套房首期比例和按息水平,較令市場意外的是有關當局將向自住樓宇按差額徵收20%稅款,調控力度超出市場預期。

KLCC Property up on anticipation of REIT listing


The Star Online > Business
Tuesday March 5, 2013
KLCC Property up on anticipation of REIT listing

By WONG WEI-SHEN
weishen.wong@thestar.com.my

PETALING JAYA: KLCC Property Holdings Bhd shares have scaled new heights, hitting an all-time high, as anticipation of its real estate investment trust (REIT) listing in April mounted.

The stock reached an intraday high of RM6.87 in early trade - the highest price since its listing in 2004 - before ending the day at RM6.78, its highest closing price, with 1.42 million shares done.

Golden Agri FY12 Results Review: Poor 4Q Drags Down FY12 (RHB)


Golden Agri FY12 Results Review: Poor 4Q Drags Down FY12
(BUY, S$0.65, TP: S$0.71)

Golden Agri (GGR)’s FY12 earnings were disappointing due to inventory buildup in 4Q. The additional inventory will eventually be sold this year, helping to boost its CY13 bottomline. We are maintaining GGR as a Buy with our fair value lowered to factor in an increase in its share base. Our earnings forecast remains unchanged. GGR will be the prime beneficiary of a short-term rally in palm oil price, to be driven by seasonal inventory downcycle.

Maybank : BII finally gaining traction (DBSV)

Maybank
BUY RM8.84
KLCI : 1,615.07
Price Target : 12-month RM 10.60
BII finally gaining traction

BII’s strong FY12 net profit was driven by net interest income; NIM improved and loans grew 20% y-o-y; contributes c.7% to MAY’s earnings
BII’s headline ROE target at 17% by 2015
Maintain BUY rating and RM10.60 TP for MAY

BII’s FY12 result led by strong net interest income. NIM improved by 51 bps y-o-y due to better pricing discipline for time deposits, while CASA growth of those that became too competitive was deliberately capped.

Aviation - KL-SG High-Speed Rail Link


Aviation -
KL-SG High-Speed Rail Link

Highlights
The leaders of Malaysia and Singapore have agreed to build a high-speed rail link between Kuala Lumpur and Singapore that will significantly cut travel time for commuters to just 90 minutes (vs. up to 8 hours by train between the two cities; by bus or car, up to 5 hours; and flight, about 45 minutes).

The HSRL (to complete by 2020) will also complement another rail project - the Rapid Transit System Link that will link Johor Bahru to Singapore along the upcoming Thomson Line that is expected to be ready by 2019.

CapitaLand : Breaking Ground In Iskandar Malaysia (UOBKH)


CapitaLand
Share Price S$3.93
Target Price S$4.33
Breaking Ground In Iskandar Malaysia

CapitaLand’s strategic acquisition of a prime waterfront mixed development site in Danga Bay is a long-term positive, allowing it to benefit from the increase in property prices in the Iskandar region. The overall impact on CapitaLand’s RNAV is expected to be a marginal 4 S cents/share (1%). Maintain BUY with an unchanged target price of S$4.33, pending further details.

Pan United : Dividend Up! (Phillip)


Pan United Corp.
Target Price (SGD) 1.210
- Previous Target Price (SGD) 0.88
Closing Price (SGD) 0.965
Dividend Up!

 Company Overview
Pan United’s Basic Building Materials business commands a one-third market share in both cement and ready mixed concrete in Singapore. Its Ports & Logistics division has a 51.3% stake in a top 10 river port in China. The company also operates a Shipping fleet of 10 tug & barge pairs.

Boustead Singapore : A strong third quarter, boosting 9MFY13 net profit (S&P)

Boustead Singapore
Price: SGD1.30
A strong third quarter, boosting 9MFY13 net profit

Boustead recorded a bumper 3QFY13 (Mar) net profit of SGD26.2 mln (+373% YoY), bolstered by a one-off SGD5.8-mln net gain from disposal of a non-core investment and tax refund. Excluding the one-time gain on disposal, the group achieved a 107% YoY growth in 9MFY13 net profit at SGD47.9 mln, exceeding our expectations. The positive variance was due to better-than-expected revenue recognition, particularly from the real estate solutions and positive tax write-back of prior year provisions.

Starhill Global REIT: Expect extra DPU in 1Q13 (OCBC)


Starhill Global REIT:
Fair value    S$0.98
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.05
versus: Current price  S$0.88

Expect extra DPU in 1Q13
• Favourable rent review outcome
• Net rental arrears to be distributed
• New rate used as base rent for Jun lease  renewal

Starhill Global REIT (SGREIT) announced that the rent review process relating to Toshin master lease at Ngee Ann City has been completed on last Thursday and that it has been awarded a 10.0% increase in base rent.

Tiger Airways : January operating stats: Strong start to 2013 (DBSV)

Tiger Airways
BUY S$0.73
STI : 3,288.14
Price Target : 12-Month S$ 0.95
January operating stats: Strong start to 2013

• Overall carriage up 34% y-o-y, with load factor improving 9ppt to 84% in Jan
• Singapore operations firmly profitable whilst Australia continues to regain its footing
• Positive decision by Australia’s competition regulator to allow Tiger Aus’ sale to Virgin could provide re-rating catalyst
• Maintain BUY with S$0.95 TP.

Tiger Airways reported a good start to CY-2013, with its January operating statistics continuing the positive momentum from recent months, and validating our view on an upcoming turnaround. Overall, passenger carriage  grew by 34% y-o-y to 1,013m p-km with a 9ppt improvement in load factor to 84%.

Fortune REIT: Benefit from high retail rents, stable dividend yield (Phillip)


Fortune REIT (778.HK)
Benefit from high retail rents, stable dividend yield
Company Profile
Fortune Real Estate Investment Trust (“Fortune REIT”) listed on 12 August 2003 on the Singapore Exchange Securities Trading Limited (the “SGX-ST”) with a dual primary listing on The Stock Exchange of Hong Kong Limited (the “SEHK”) on 20 April 2010, Fortune REIT was Asia’s first cross-border REIT and also the first REIT to hold assets in Hong Kong. Fortune REIT holds a portfolio of sixteen retail properties in Hong Kong, comprising approximately 2.45 million square feet of retail space and 1,989 car parking lots.

Revenue in 2012 increased by 22.5% yoy to HK$1.11 billion.
Net property income rose 22.8% yoy to HK$788 million.
DPU climbed to 32.35 cents, a yoy increase of 23%.

Unisem 4Q12 Results: Below Expectations (HLG)


Unisem (M) Bhd
Price Target: RM0.95
Share Price: RM0.99
4Q12 Results: Below Expectations

Results
 Even after excluding one-offs losses, FY12 core net loss of RM11.5m was a letdown, doubled HLIB and street’s LAT estimates of RM4.9m and RM5.5m respectively.
 One offs registered in 4Q12 amounted to RM20.8m due to impairment of assets for RM13.4m, inventories write-off of RM5.1m, capitalized expenditure write-off of RM1.3m and receivables write-off of RM944k.

How big a threat is the HSR? (CIMB)


 How big a threat is the HSR?
The proposed KUL-SIN HSR will compete with airlines and airports in the two cities. High-cost full service carriers are likely to suffer the greatest share of passenger declines while MAHB could bear the brunt of the bottom-line declines, estimated at some 10%.

 Despite this, our top pick in the Asean aviation space remains MAHB, as the rail project is eight years away from completion with many unknowns. From this year onwards, the aggressive expansion of AirAsia and Malindo will spur its traffic growth. We are Neutral on the sector overall.

Malaysian Airline System : “EPS4Q12 above estimates” (M&A)


Malaysian Airline System Berhad
Current Price (RM) 0.74
New Fair Value (RM) 0.86
“EPS4Q12 above estimates”

 MAS’ turnover in 4Q12 rose 1.4% Y-o-Y to RM3.66 billion due to the higher contribution from Airlines Operations division. For FY12, turnover dropped -2.7% Y-o-Y to RM13.29 billion due to the lower contribution from Airlines Operations and Cargo Services divisions throughout FY12. Turnover recorded in 4Q12 was 13.0% higher than our estimates of RM3.24 billion. MAS recorded a net profit of RM51.4 million in 4Q12 compared to a net loss of RM1.28 billion recorded in 4Q11.

悦榕控股盈利提高;房产投资充满商机


悦榕控股盈利提高;房产投资充满商机
文: 钟旭光 (译:麦美莹) 2013年03月04日 企业摘要
悦榕控股(Banyan Tree Holdings)的执行主席何光平在2月28日的分析师及媒体发布会上,充满信心地说:“公司现有业务的表现持续向好,新策略也交出不错的成绩。”

截至2012年12月尾的整个年度里,收入从3亿2,950万元提高2.7%至3亿3,840万元。酒店投资及收费业务提高足以弥补产业销售业务的收入减少。

丰益国际将会继续走低吗?


丰益国际将会继续走低吗?
文: 韩巍 (译:麦美莹) 2013年03月01日 技术分析
丰益国际(Wilmar International)在过去一个月的表现甚为疲弱。其移动平均线及平滑异同移动平均数(MACD)均显示这只股正往下跌。事实上,当海峡时报指数的表现向好并多次上探高位时,丰益国际已开始往下跌。最近,这只股形成了一个显著的头肩形态,这是一个中长期表现下滑的信号。这个头肩形态意味着丰益国际很可能会继续走低。大家不妨考虑当这只股走高时入场卖空(shorting)。如果它回弹至38.2%斐波纳契回撤线(Fibonacci retracement level)之上,这可能是进场卖空的好时机。

魯比尼發警告 美股低開58


魯比尼發警告 美股低開58
雖然「股神」巴菲特唱好股市,但意大利可能重新進行大選,以及中國加大壓抑樓市力度,美股周一早段受壓,道指下跌58點,報14,030點,納指跌11點,報3,158點。歐洲股市個別發展,英、德兩國股市尾段分別挫0.5%及0.34%,法股則漲0.07%。

巴菲特接受CNBC訪問時表示,由於利率低企,股票較其他資產抵買,並且正擴大股票組合,旗下兩名基金經理將各額外獲10億美元資金進行投資。他又認為,聯儲局不可能永遠「放水」,到某個時候縮減刺激措施是好事。巴菲特又指透過啟動自動削赤機制來解決政府財政屬愚蠢做法。

曾淵滄專欄 05.03.13:內房股未屆撈底時


曾淵滄專欄:內房股未屆撈底時 - 曾淵滄

上星期四,即2月28日,恒指大幅回升,從22577點一躍而升至23020點,相信不少人會很高興地認為,這場調整可能已經結束了,可惜,昨日恒指再度大幅下跌,一跌就跌至22537點,比2月27日的收市位還低。昨日恒指跌1.5%,比較之下,還是比內地股市好得多,昨日滬綜指跌幅達3.65%,國務院出乎預料地,在人大開會的前幾天,宣佈新的打壓樓市措施。

過去,許多人(包括我在內)都錯誤地以為,總理溫家寶政府任期只剩最後幾天,以西方政治常規而言,應是屬看守政府,盡可能無為而治,想不到溫家寶決定在退位前的最後幾天,繼續為國家發光發熱,趕在退任之前再出狠招打壓樓市。

Indofood raises stake in China Minzhong to 29.33%


Indofood raises stake in China Minzhong to 29.33%
WRITTEN BY THE EDGE  
MONDAY, 04 MARCH 2013 21:45

China Minzhong Food Corporation said that PT Indofood Sukses Makmur had purchased 94.25 million Minzhong shares from Tetrad Venture at $1.12 apiece.

The acquisition increases PT Indofood's shareholdings from 14.95% to 29.33% of China Minzhong total issued share capital.

Earlier on Feb 15, China Minzhong had placed out 98 million shares to PT Indofood.

Lin Guo Rong, CEO of China Minzhong, said, “Indofood and China Minzhong have identified many potential synergies between our businesses such as strategic cooperation in supply chain and product distribution in the fast moving markets of China and Indonesia.”

Not Bullish on HSBC Share Price: Pro



Maersk Betting On Shipping Recovery



航运企业如何自救

航运企业如何自救
财新记者 战嘉琦
2013年02月20日 10:29 来源于 财新网



Fed Liquidity Taps Expected to Stay On



Has yen's downtrend run its course?



伯南克:美联储或评估宽松货币政策退市策略

金石财经2013-02-28 伯南克:美联储或评估宽松货币政策退市策略


Monday, March 4, 2013

Buffett warns Berkshire Hathaway's long streak of outperforming S&P 500 may end this year


The Star Online > Business
Monday March 4, 2013
Buffett warns Berkshire Hathaway's long streak of outperforming S&P 500 may end this year

NEW YORK: Berkshire Hathaway may end a long streak of outperforming the S&P 500 this year, chief executive Warren Buffett warned shareholders on Friday, even as he said he was still eagerly hunting for acquisitions to grow the ice-cream-to-insurance conglomerate.

In his annual letter to investors, Buffett opened up with a caution that this year, for the first time, the growth in Berkshire's book value per share may underperform the growth in the S&P 500 when measured over a five-year period.

隆新高铁 经济效益时速500?

隆新高铁 经济效益时速500?
Created 03/04/2013 - 14:43
隆新高铁计划有谱,然而,这项大型基建计划一旦落实,除了可以带动一些领域之外,也可能会冲击某些行业,堪称有人欢喜有人愁。

此外,在成本高昂、能否永续经营的疑虑笼罩之际,隆新高铁会否落得“雷声大雨点小”的局面?

隆新高铁喜VS愁

马新两国政府宣布兴建隆新高铁,有人欢喜有人愁。

欢喜者垂涎工程大饼、高铁经济效益;忧愁者深怕市场被侵蚀,盈利走下坡。

一股作气:龙马脱胎换骨料转盈


一股作气:龙马脱胎换骨料转盈
Created 03/04/2013 - 13:02
脱售非核心和非策略资产后脱胎换骨,且连续3年蒙受亏损的龙马(Landmrk,1643,主板酒店股)今年有望转盈。

龙马最受瞩目、也是未来营收增长重大推动力是位于宾丹岛度假村发展项目旗舰计划,料可在今年开幕营业。

以目前市场交易价格计算,相比每股净资产明显出现75%的折价,公司手上持有的净现金相等于每股19仙。

度假村发展项目是龙马继浮罗交怡安达曼度假村后的旗舰计划,称为Treasure Bay Bintan(TBB)度假村,总发展面积达338公顷。

随着TBB度假村将开业以及销售计划将推出,分析员认为集团有望从过去3年蒙受亏损的业绩表现,在今年能够转亏为盈。

因2008年全球金融风暴而搁置的宾丹岛度假村发展项目,第一阶段兴建工程目前正如火如荼进行中。

浮罗交怡建度假村

根据TTB发展大蓝图,度假村将分4阶段发展,打造成度假村,将成为旅客不可错过的另一个景点。

为此,第一阶段的发展以基建为主,且邻近现有码头,计划发展成交通枢纽,涵盖水上飞机(Seaplane)、休闲艇(Leisure Boats)、渡轮及邮轮服务。

龙马也就此与Skywave和Decennia签署了解备忘录,以开拓水上飞机业务营运,以及兴建两间酒店和一个商业中心。

龙马展望未来前景时预计,第一阶段首间酒店、饮食与娱乐商店和零售中心将在今年杪开业。

云顶间接持30.3%

据黄氏星展唯高达研究去年11月的一份报告,料龙马也将推出度假村销售计划,为酒店的兴建计划融资。

随着TBB度假村将开业以及销售计划将推出,分析员认为集团有望从过去3年蒙受亏损的业绩表现、开始从今年起转亏为盈。

值得一提的是,云顶也间接持有龙马30.3%股权、且从2006年8月开始至2007年12月期间购票,平均每股成本2.05令吉。

云顶当初投资龙马,主要是TBB度假村将涵盖赌场业务,不过,现有的发展大蓝图内并没有提及兴建赌场。

TBB开业净利料1800万

回顾龙马2008年签署分区协议(Zoning Agreement),TBB度假村将打造成独家综合旅游区(EITZ),并涵盖医疗旅游、多媒体和信息技术中心以及游戏与娱乐区,包括赌场。

当时,有分析员认为,鉴于印尼仍在禁赌,赌场的营运执照是否取得仍是个风险。

同样地,当时也有分析员认为,作为龙马大股东的云顶理应会争取度假村赌场执照。

乐观的分析员更是如是表示,随着新加坡发放两张赌场营运执照、已吸引大量游客前往狮城,不排除印尼也将跟进。

然而,近年来赌场执照消息就像断了线的风筝。根据媒体报道,龙马已经表示不设赌场。

龙马脱胎换骨后如今业务更专注发展名胜与酒店管理。

黄氏星展唯高达研究预测,TBB度假村开业贡献下,料龙马今年可取得1800万令吉的净利,明年则将大幅提高到4200万令吉。

另外,龙马过去多年来积极脱售非核心非策略资产,自2007年起资产负债表也已大大提升,更是一家净现金集团。

截至2012年12月,龙马总贷款额为6669万2000令吉,手上握有的现金与现金等值达1亿5934万2000令吉。

以净现金9265万令吉计算,相等于每股逾19仙,占周五闭市价92仙的20%。

鉴于过去多年脱售资产,截至去年12月,龙马每股净资产达3.70令吉,远远高于目前的市场交易价,股价净值比只有0.25倍。

翻新推高出租率

展望未来,龙马表示,鉴于浮罗交怡安达曼度假村首个装修和翻新工程已完成,且在提升客房和餐饮体验后更获得租客的良好反应。

度假村客房出租率以及每间客房的营收,也已取得8%和0.8%的增长。最后阶段的装修和翻新工程将在今年第二季度展开。

龙马预计,装修和翻新工程有助提高度假村出租率,加上TBB度假村将在今年杪开业,相信盈利能力将大幅提升。




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Source/Extract/Excerpts/来源/转贴/摘录: 南洋财经
Publish date: 04/03/13

Education stocks continue to face headwinds


Education stocks continue to face headwinds
Business & Markets 2013

Written by Ben Shane Lim of theedgemalaysia.com  
Monday, 04 March 2013 09:34

KUALA LUMPUR: Education counters continued to decline in the market as losses at Masterskill Education Group Bhd widened more than expected and SEG INTERNATIONAL BHD [] (SEGi) made its first pre-tax loss in seven years.

Masterskill sank deeper into the red, making a quarterly net loss of RM12.85 million in the fourth quarter to Dec 31, 2012, compared to a net loss of RM2.19 million during the same period a year ago. The group’s fifth consecutive net loss resulted in a full year net loss of RM28.3 million compared to a net profit of RM45.3 million the year before.

末季成功轉盈‧全年虧損收窄‧馬航31億附加股考驗仍大


末季成功轉盈‧全年虧損收窄‧馬航31億附加股考驗仍大
Created 03/04/2013 - 11:23
讀者蕭小姐問:

馬航(MAS,3786,主板貿服組)還能持有或是否要賣出?

答:儘管馬航2012財政年末季成功轉虧為盈,全年虧損已減半,但該公司高達31億令吉的附加股計劃恐繼續打擊股價士氣。

馬航剛公佈最新業績,取得末季淨利5千萬令吉,前期為淨虧損近12億8千萬令吉;全年雖仍蒙損4億3千萬令吉,卻已自前期淨虧損25億2千萬令吉顯著改善。

股神備銀彈 密謀做大刁


股神備銀彈 密謀做大刁

【本報綜合報道】「股神」畢菲特也有甩轆時,其投資旗艦巴郡去年全年純利雖然大升近五成,惟每股賬面值卻跑輸美股標普指數。畢菲特在致股東信函中,形容巴郡去年表現「低於標準」(subpar),對於去年欲進行多宗大型併購均空手而回也感到失望。不過巴郡銀彈充裕,他揚言今年將有大刁。


Pacific Basin: Good quality at a discount: what more could investors ask for? (CIMB)

Pacific Basin Shipping
Current HK$4.57
Target HK$6.00

Good quality at a discount: what more could investors ask for?
Pacific Basin’s 2H12 core net profit was above expectations at 2.5x our forecast due to the low base and outperformance of its towage business. The core dry bulk earnings were within expectations but, most importantly, profitable despite the BDI sinking to 20-year lows.

We upgrade from Neutral to Outperform and raise our target price, still based on SOP but minus the previous 20% discount. We think that such a discount is no longer warranted given the quality of the company and in anticipation of the bottoming of the dry bulk cycle this year, which could act as a major share price catalyst. We also raise EPS for better bulk and towage prospects.

Malaysian Airline System: Return to profitability (MIB)


Malaysian Airline System
Buy (unchanged)
Share price: MYR0.735
Target price: MYR0.97 (from MYR1.02)
Return to profitability

In line. Malaysian Airline’s (MAS) FY12 core net loss of MYR571m (-45% YoY) was in line with ours, but outperformed consensus estimate of > MYR700m loss. The Company has managed to stem losses since 3Q12 and has appeared to turn the corner in terms of a successful business turnaround. We maintain our BUY call, but with a lower target price of MYR0.97/share (previously MYR1.02/share) after tweaking our average fuel cost assumption to USD126/bbl from USD125/bbl, based on 2014 7.2x adjusted EV/EBITDAR – in line with regional average.

Unisem: Kitchen sinking quarter (CIMB)


Unisem
Current RM0.99
Target RM0.96
Kitchen sinking quarter

 As expected, Unisem broke even in 4Q12. Its FY12 core net loss of RM9m was narrower than our RM14m loss forecast, but larger than consensus expectations. The results briefing yielded no surprises with its guidance for a muted yoy top line growth and challenging FY13.

4Q12 included impairment losses on assets and provisions for write-offs on inventory and retrenchment cost. Our target price (based on 0.6x FY13 P/BV, 2sd below its 5-year historical average) falls as we cut our FY13-14 EPS by 5-35% on lower sales growth and slower improvement in EBITDA margins. We maintain our Neutral call as the stock is trading at low valuations but with no catalysts in sight. Switch into MyEG for growth.

S-REIT / BusinessTrust: We still like Cityspring, CMT, FCT, PLife (Limtan)


S-REITS / BUSINESS TRUSTS
 We have done a further update following release of the Dec ’12 quarter results by CitySpring and CapitaChina Retail. See attached.

 The sector has selectively, continued to do well, at least relative to the general market.

 A few have even scaled new multi-year highs or all time highs, eg Parkway Life (up 6 cents to $2.44 on Friday, a new all time high), Fraser Centrepoint Trust (FCT) also at a new high up 3 to $2.04) after emerging from 4-month-old $1.94 - 2.02 range.

Pan-United :On track for re-rating (DBSV)


Pan-United Corporation,
On track for re-rating
BUY S$0.92,
Price Target : 12-Month S$ 1.08 (Prev S$ 1.02)

• 4Q12 and FY12 earnings in line as construction projects remain buoyant
• Final DPS of 2.5 Scts declared, full year dividend yield is attractive at 4.3%
• Re-rating ahead of higher construction activities
• Maintain Buy with higher TP S$1.08

Highlights
4Q12 and FY12 earnings in line. PAN reported 4Q12 and FY12 results that were largely in line with our estimates.  FY12 earnings of S$43m were 5% higher than our S$41m forecast.

Maybulk: Acquisition of New Vessel (TA)


Malaysian Bulk Carriers Berhad
TP: RM 1.24
Last Traded: RM 1.35
Acquisition of New Vessel

Purchase of vessel for USD26.6mn
Maybulk’s 70%-owned subsidiary, Ambi Shipping Pte Ltd, has entered into a contract with Lepta Shipping Co. Ltd for the construction and purchase of a 56,000 deadweight tonne (dwt) bulk carrier. The vessel is targeted for delivery in 1H15. The purchase consideration of USD26.6mn (RM82.2mn) will be payable in 5 installments (4 pre-delivery and 1 at delivery). According to the announcement, the acquisition is part of the group’s fleet renewal plans to include newer and more economical vessels.

POPULATION WHITE PAPER FAVOURS INFRASTRUCTURE PLAYS (OCBC)


POPULATION WHITE PAPER FAVOURS INFRASTRUCTURE PLAYS
•Government to build infrastructure ahead of demand
•Ramp-up in public housing and transport projects
•Favour niche infrastructure service providers

Parliament endorses Population White Paper
After five days of intense debate, Singapore’s Parliament passed the amended White Paper on Population about a week ago. As a brief recap, the amended White Paper outlined several proposals to address the country’s demographic challenges. They include (i) enhancing existing marriage and parenthood measures, (ii) taking in about 30,000 PRs and 15,000 to 25,000 new citizens per year, (iii) creating sufficient PMET jobs for two-thirds of Singaporeans by 2030, (iv) moderating overall workforce growth to 1% to 2% per year up to 2020 (and about 1% per year up to 2030), and (v) investing in infrastructure to support a population of 5.8 to 6.0m in 2020 (and 6.5 to 6.9m in 2030).

SingTel: Stable 3QFY13 results (OCBC)


SingTel:
Fair value    S$3.68
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.16
versus: Current price  S$3.50

Stable 3QFY13 results
• 9MFY13 results in line
• No change to guidance
• Higher S$3.68 FV

SingTel saw its 3QFY13 group revenue dipping 4.8% YoY to S$4597m, and while EBITDA rose 0.5% to S$1262m, net profit fell 8.3% to S$827m (mainly due to exceptional loss of S$67m). However, excluding exceptional items, underlying net profit was down 2.3% at S$874m.

China Minzhong: 2Q to Dec ’13 profit rose 24% yoy (Limtan)

CHINA MINZHONG
S$1.02-CMIN.SI
 2Q to Dec ’13 profit rose 24% yoy to Rmb216mln, bringing 1H to Dec ’13 profit up 26% to Rmb337mln, accounting for 44% of consensus full year estimate of Rmb759mln.

 This is about 10% higher than their usual 40/60 split and at yesterday’s briefing, management had attributed this to the early start to the winter season versus last year’s relatively later start.

 The key positive takeaway from this set of result is the robust operating cash flow which surged 335% yoy to Rmb578mln as most of the overdue receivables were collected back, helping to allay concerns of bad debt provisions.

Singapore dollar at 3-week low; more downside seen


Singapore dollar at 3-week low; more downside seen

The Singapore dollar's weakening comes at a time the US dollar stayed close to a six-month high against a basket of currencies. -Reuters

Mon, Mar 04, 2013
Reuters

SINGAPORE - The Singapore dollar slid to a near three-week low against the US dollar on Monday as traders said hedge funds unloaded the local unit amid expectations it could depreciate further after breaching key chart support lines.

Perennial China Retail Trust: Continues to execute (DBSV)


Perennial China Retail Trust
BUY S$0.64
STI : 3,290.47
Price Target : 12-Month S$ 0.84
Continues to execute

• Results lifted by earn out deed support
• Operations ramping up, new development assets to extend earnings and RNAV growth visibility
• Maintain BUY, TP $0.84

Highlights
Results in line. PCRT reported 2H12 DPU of 1.96Scts. Together with the 1.90Scts recorded in 1H12, the group posted FY12 DPU of 3.86Scts, in line with expectations.
Warren E. Buffett(沃伦•巴菲特)
Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful
别人贪婪时我恐惧, 别人恐惧时我贪婪
投资只需学好两门课: 一,是如何给企业估值,二,是如何看待股市波动
吉姆·罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)
“错过时机”胜于“搞错对象”:不会全军覆没!”
做自己熟悉的事,等到发现大好机会才投钱下去

乔治·索罗斯(George Soros)

“犯错误并没有什么好羞耻的,只有知错不改才是耻辱。”

如果操作过量,即使对市场判断正确,仍会一败涂地。

李驰(中国巴菲特)
高估期间, 卖对, 不卖也对, 买是错的。
低估期间, 买对, 不买也是对, 卖是错的。

Tan Teng Boo


There’s no such thing as defensive stocks.Every stock can be defensive depending on what price you pay for it and what value you get,
冷眼(冯时能)投资概念
“买股票就是买公司的股份,买股份就是与陌生人合股做生意”。
合股做生意,则公司股份的业绩高于一切,而股票的价值决定于盈利。
价值是本,价格是末,故公司比股市重要百倍。
曹仁超-香港股神/港股明灯
1.有智慧,不如趁势
2.止损不止盈
成功者所以成功,是因为不怕失败!失败者所以失败,是失败后不再尝试!
曾淵滄-散户明灯
每逢灾难就是机会,而是在灾难发生时贱价买股票,然后放在一边,耐性地等灾难结束
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