Saturday, February 9, 2013

ICBC : Diversity counts (CIMB)

ICBC
Current HK$5.76
Target HK$6.77
Diversity counts

ICBC is one of our top picks among large state-owned banks. The bank’s well-diversified business mix is a source of strength that should help it deliver among the best asset quality, earnings growth and returns in the sector.

We raise our GGM-derived target price 15.5% to HK$6.77 (driven by a higher terminal ROA from lower loan impairments) and reiterate our Outperform rating. Our target price implies 1.48x FY13 P/BV or 17.5% upside. Catalysts include continued policy noises on China’s GDP growth model shifting toward domestic consumption, as well as better-than-expected asset quality and margins. The biggest risk to the banking sector remains policy related.

China Construction Bank : Top pick among large banks (CIMB)


China Construction Bank
Current HK$6.46
Target HK$8.04
Top pick among large banks

CCB is our top pick among large state-owned banks. We like the bank for its high returns, excellent funding franchise and extremely strong balance sheet.

We raise our GGM-derived target price 7% to HK$8.04, and reiterate our Outperform rating. Our current target price implies 1.50x FY13 P/BV or 24.5% upside from here. Key catalysts include continued policy noises related to shifting China’s GDP growth model toward domestic consumption, better-than-expected asset quality and margins. The biggest risk remains banking sector policy related.

Bank of China : Outperformance unlikely to continue in 2013 (CIMB)


Bank of China
Current HK$3.65
Target HK$3.78
Outperformance unlikely to continue in 2013

While BOC’s share price outperformed most of its immediate peers in 2012, we think it will be difficult to maintain this momentum into 2013. The bank has the largest non-China exposure of its peer group, and is also the most geared to slower China trade.

We reiterate our Neutral rating, but raise our GGM-derived target price from HK$3.23 to HK$3.78 on the back of raising our sustainable ROA – driven by lower loan impairments. Our target price suggests an FY13 P/BV multiple of 0.94x, or 3.6% upside from here. Our Neutral rating reflects our view that there are few stock-specific catalysts for BOC, and we advocate a switch to CCB, ICBC or ABC.

Agricultural Bank of China : Better asset quality and clarity on capital (CIMB)


Agricultural Bank of China
Current HK$3.97
Target HK$4.53
Better asset quality and clarity on capital

Normalisation of loan impairment charges is likely to remain ABC’s key investment theme. The CBRC’s recent clarification on the Basel III’s implementation will likely reduce capital concerns for ABC.

We raise our GGM-derived target price from HK$4.14 to HK$4.53, and reiterate our Outperform rating. Our target price implies 1.33x FY13 P/BV or 14.1% upside from here. Catalysts include continued policy noises on shifting China’s GDP growth model toward domestic consumption, and better-than-expected asset quality and margins. The biggest risk remains policy related.

Infrastructure-development-to-keep-pace-with-population-growth


Slower-economic-productivity-growth-projected-for-S'pore-beyond-2020


S'pore-population-could-hit-6.9-million-by-2030


F&N: Charoen's Offer the Only Bid Available


Money Mind 20.01.13 : S'pore Property Cooling Measures


Olam Reviews Business as Muddy Waters Retains Sell Rating

Olam Reviews Business as Muddy Waters Retains Sell Rating
By Michelle Yun - Feb 8, 2013

Olam International Ltd., the commodity trader targeted by short-seller Carson Block, reported the highest quarterly profit since 2010 and said it’s reviewing operations including spending plans.

Olam “appears to be trying to rein in its capital expenditure and acquisition spending,” Block’s research firm Muddy Waters LLC said today in a statement on its website, restating its strong sell rating on the stock. It’s “one of the bright spots for Olam investors,” it said.

Investing With Sui Jau: More Positive on North Asian than South-East Asia for 2013


《绥钊投资心得》:2012年投资组合表现总结


Sunway - Emerging Iskandar proxy - 1,800 acres in Nusajaya

Sunway -
Price Target : 2.60
Last Price : 2.39
Emerging Iskandar proxy - 1,800 acres in Nusajaya

- We reaffirm our HOLD rating on Sunway Bhd (Sunway) with our fair value unchanged at RM2.60/share, assigning an 25% discount to our SOP value of RM3.50/share.

- It was announced that Sunway had signed an agreement with Iskandar Investment Bhd (IIB) to co-develop a piece of freehold land - 300acres - in Pendas or specifically Eastern Pendas South (EPS). The land would be acquired for RM183.9mil or translating to about RM14psf which is fair given it is just a tad higher than Pendas North &South land (RM12.20psf). This land is expected to have a GDV of RM6bil.

AirAsia : End 2012 With a Strong Note (TA)


AirAsia Berhad
TP: RM 3.58
Last Traded: RM2.64
End 2012 With a Strong Note
Review
_ AirAsia’s FY12 core net profit of RM731.8mn exceeded our forecast of RM540mn but came below consensus’ estimate of RM953mn. The variances to our earnings estimates were mainly due to 1) higher-thanexpected margin, 2) higher contribution from associates and JV entities and 3) lower finance cost and effective tax rate. The group has formalized a dividend policy to pay an annual dividend of up to 20% of the core operating profits starting from FY13. For FY12, the group has proposed a final dividend of 6sen/share, against our DPS projection of 5sen/share. A pleasant surprise is the special dividend of 18sen/share declared, taking the total dividend payout for FY12 to 24sen/share, which translates to a decent yield of 9.1%.

CapitaCommercial Trust: Awaiting New Catalysts (KE)


CapitaCommercial Trust
Sell (unchanged)
Share price: SGD1.70
Target price: SGD1.43 (from SGD1.35)
Awaiting New Catalysts

 Higher DPU, thanks to Twenty Anson. CapitaCommercial Trust’s (CCT) FY12 DPU of 8.04 cents was in line with expectations, as contributions from Twenty Anson aided in the 7% YoY growth in DPU. 4Q12 DPU came in at 2.05 cents (+7% YoY, flat QoQ). The yield protection at One George Street (OGS) will end in July 2013, and with a slightly below-market occupancy rate of 92.5%, CCT’s 2H13 DPU may be impacted. We see few positive catalysts to warrant its FY13F DPU yield of 4.6%. Maintain SELL.

Frasers Centrepoint Trust: Still benefitting from AEI (OCBC)

Frasers Centrepoint Trust:
Fair value    S$2.13
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.11
versus: Current price  S$2.00

Still benefitting from AEI
• In-line 1QFY13 results
• Occupancy to improve further
• Balance sheet remains robust

Frasers Centrepoint Trust (FCT) reported DPU of 2.40 S cents for 1QFY13, representing a YoY growth of 9.1%. This is largely in line with expectations, given that the quarterly DPU met 22% of both our and consensus FY13F DPU estimates. Causeway Point (CWP) and Northpoint remained the key drivers for the quarter, generating 12.3% and 6.7% YoY increase in NPI.

Interest Rates Will Spike This Year: Soros


Interest Rates Will Spike This Year: Soros

There will be a dramatic rise in interest rates as soon as there are clear signs the U.S. economy is picking up, billionaire financier George Soros told CNBC.

Soros said that the U.S. needs to reestablish growth to help shrink its debt pile and that the Federal Reserve's policy of buying U.S. debt, is the right one since it doesn't add to the net amount of debt outstanding. "It's about as close to a free lunch as you can get," he said.

But there is a risk, Soros warned, "Once the economy gets going, then interest rates are going to take a big leap."

Keppel REIT 4Q12: Key Beneficiary Of An Office Sector Turnaround (UOBKH)


Keppel REIT
Share Price S$1.38
Target Price S$1.57
4Q12: Key Beneficiary Of An Office Sector Turnaround

K-REIT’s results were in line with expectations. Portfolio occupancies improved 0.3ppt qoq to 98.5% while positive rental reversions in 2013 are expected to mitigate the impact of the income support loss for ORQ. With office rentals expected to bottom out within the next 2-3 quarters, the key catalyst would be the potential acquisition of MBFC Tower 3. Maintain BUY with a raised target of S$1.57 (from S$1.51).

Results
• Results in line with expectations. Keppel REIT (K-REIT) reported a DPU of 1.97 S cents/share, (+41% yoy, +0.5% qoq) due to the acquisition of Ocean Financial Centre (OFC) and the concurrent 17-for-20 rights issue in 4Q11. The results are in line with expectations, with 2012 DPU representing 101.1% of our full-year forecast.

Cache Logistics Trust: Delivering another year of stellar performance (AM)


Delivering another year of stellar performance
Cache Logistics Trust delivered another year of stellar performance, with its FY2012 revenue and distributable income up by 12.4% and 9.5% respectively. Following our downgrade call to hold on 25 October 2012, Cache witnessed a correction of c.6%. While it has recovered ground in recent months, we believe Cache is now close to being fully valued. We maintain HOLD with fair value of S$1.315.

Forward dividend yield of 6.7% for Cache. We continue to like the sustainability of Cache’s dividend yield, which remains one of its key investment positives. Factors namely its triple-net master lease structure, 1.25%-2.5% annual rental escalation rates and strong cash flow generation will continue to underpin the stability of Cache’s distribution yield.

巴菲特投资三十六计之十六:混水摸鱼

巴菲特投资36计之16:混水摸鱼
2011年03月14日中国证券网-上海证券报  ⊙刘建位
  原文为:乘其阴乱,利其弱而无主。随,以向晦入宴息。

  古人按语为:动荡之际,数力冲撞,弱者依违无主,散蔽而不察,我随而取之。《六韬》日:“三军数惊,士卒不齐,相恐以敌强,相语以不利,耳目相属,妖言不止,众口相惑,不畏法令,不重其将:此弱征也。”是鱼,混战之际,择此而取之。如:刘备之得荆州,取西川,皆此计也。

  巴菲特曾经用一句话总结他选择投资最佳时机的秘诀:在别人恐惧时贪婪。

Marc Faber Sounds A Lot Like Warren Buffett



Marc Faber: Gold Won't Collapse ... Unless ...




Marc Faber: The U.S. Economy's Pivot Point


Land-Use-Plan-will-present-opportunities-for-developers-analysts


Modest Growth in China



China's Recovery Won't Last: Expert



Apple Mirroring Microsoft's Tech Bubble Tumble


Yang: Outlook for 2H 2013 Is Uncertain


S&P's Chan: Investment Overhang a Risk for China


Merrill's Piron: Impact of Yen Weakness Limited



Euro Zone Stabilization Key to Global Economy: Pro


Apple Shares Down 35% Since Sept. 2012


Friday, February 8, 2013

系列企业活动省融资成本 马航2013财测上调18%


系列企业活动省融资成本 马航2013财测上调18%
Created 02/08/2013 - 10:17
(吉隆坡7日讯)肯纳格投资研究认为,马航(MAS,3786,主板贸服股)一系列的企业活动,预计可借此节省潜在的融资成本,因此把2013财年的盈利预测上修18%。

早前,马航建议推行多项企业活动,包括建议把每股票面价值从1令吉减至10仙、削减股票溢价户头,以及发行附加股筹资31亿令吉。

马航将于3月5日(周二),召开股东特别大会,就上述拟议企业活动征求股东批准,预计整个企业活动将在今年第二季完成。

憂泡沫現 羅傑斯沽空美債

憂泡沫現 羅傑斯沽空美債

【風險滿佈】美國聯儲局在上月底議息會議上,承諾繼續每月買債850億美元,直至失業率達6.5%及通脹率約2.5%。儘管如此,市場開始憂慮債市出現泡沫,債息開始上升;繼「債王」格羅斯「背棄」國債,勸投資者勿沾手長債後,「商品大王」羅傑斯亦估計債價會下跌,表示正沽空美債。

羅傑斯表示,現時債市出現泡沫,預期長債價格會下跌,因此正沽空國債,並計劃會繼續行動,又指過去幾年已沽空國債兩至三次。事實上,美國10年期債價今年以來已跌1.99美元,昨報96.26美元。債息昨曾見1.97厘,30年期債息高見3.18厘,兩者均升1點子。

投資SUN國度:跌市更換組合提高持股質素

投資SUN國度:跌市更換組合提高持股質素

恒指昨日雖只跌79點,但股票的跌勢比起周二跌500點時更差,這一個星期,壞消息實在是一浪接一浪。

今次經驗再一次證明,打防守最直截了當的方法還是斬倉止蝕,透過指數衍生工具去對沖持倉,效率多數比預期差,周二單日急跌主要是累積牛證太大,一下子造成漩渦效應,在正常日子,投資者傾向選擇性撤退,可能是現今資金經常性充裕的關係,又或者是針對性打法,對沖式期指淡倉成為另一類攻擊目標,股票跌而大市指數升,傳統對沖打法被完全封殺。

SIA sees cloudy skies ahead


SIA sees cloudy skies ahead
Quarterly net profit up 6%, but carrier remains cautious due to weak global economy

By Wong Wei Han- .1 hour 42 min agoSINGAPORE — Singapore Airlines (SIA) expects the persistent weakness in the global economy to put pressure on the airline industry going forward, even as the group recorded a slight improvement in its net profit in the third quarter ended Dec 31.

The outlook for air travel will be challenging, while airfreight activities remain depressed due to Europe’s economic trouble and the United States’ weak recovery, said SIA in its quarterly results announcement yesterday.

Lim Say Boon: The Euro Zone's Currency Concerns


CapitaMalls Drops Most in 9 Months on Earnings: Singapore Mover


CapitaMalls Asia Ltd., the retail property unit of Southeast Asia’s largest developer, fell the most in nine months in Singapore trading after fourth-quarter profit dropped 10 percent on lower valuation gains.

The shares declined 4.2 percent to S$2.08 at 4:10 p.m. in Singapore, set for its biggest decline since May. The stock gained 72 percent last year, making it the best performer on the Singapore benchmark index.

Net income slid to S$184.8 million ($149 million), or 4.8 cents a share, in the three months ended Dec. 31, from S$205.4 million, or 4.3 cents, a year earlier, the company said in a statement through the stock exchange today.

馬股蛇年“小龍"擺尾


馬股蛇年“小龍"擺尾
Created 02/07/2013 - 17:35
(吉隆坡7日訊)即將進入農曆癸巳蛇年,馬股走勢如蛇盤繞而行,意味著綜指朝落入頻創“更高的高點"及“更低的低點",起落波幅擴大,也符合靈蛇特性的格局。

黃氏唯高達指出,蛇年興旺的行業與土、金、水有關,例如產業、建築、油氣以及銀行領域。

該行認為,今年馬股走勢料更動盪不靖,它有可能滑落至1500點低水平,較後才有望攀回至1690點的年終目標。

CapitaCommercial Trust 4Q12: Improving Rental Outlook Weighed By Concerns (UOBKH)


CapitaCommercial Trust
Share Price S$1.71
Target Price S$1.73
4Q12: Improving Rental Outlook Weighed By Concerns

Results are in line with expectations as the improving rental outlook will mean positive reversions in 2013 for office space. Gearing remains conservative at 30% on the back of revaluation gains. However, concerns remain on portfolio occupancy risk and the loss of yield protection at One George Street. Maintain HOLD with target price at S$1.73 (up from S$1.71) Entry price at S$1.47.

Results
• Results in line with expectations. CapitaCommercial Trust (CCT) reported a 4Q12 distributable income of S$58.3m (+7.0% yoy, +0.7% qoq) and a DPU of 2.05 S cents (+6.8% yoy, +0.5% qoq). The 2012 DPU is in line with our expectations, accounting for 100.5% of our fullyear DPU estimate of 8.0 S cents.

HELP International Corp - Shaping Up


HELP International Corp -
Price Target : 1.93
Last Price : 1.91
Shaping Up

We gather from management recently that its international school remains on track for completion in May this year. Meanwhile, HELP has cut the capex allocated to its proposed flagship university campus in Sungai Buloh from RM160m to RM60m. We deem this slightly positive as management adopts more prudence in expanding capacity amid growing competition. Maintain NEUTRAL, FV unchanged at RM1.93, pending firmer signs of earnings recovery at its Fraser campus, as well as finalization of the funding for its proposed Subang 2 campus.

Keppel REIT: Fine end to FY12 (CIMB)


Keppel REIT
Current S$1.38
Target S$1.33
Fine end to FY12

 KREIT continued to provide a positive read-through of the office market in 4Q, with management guiding positively for ORQ. Headline yields are compelling but we see this as merely compensating for its higher asset leverage and income support.

4Q/FY12 DPUs were spot-on at 25/100% of our FY12 forecast, but came in slightly above street expectations. We raise our FY13-14 DPUs on stronger ORQ performance and adjustments to income support at OFC. Our DDM-based target price (discount rate: 7.7%) rises accordingly but we maintain our Neutral call. We see rerating catalysts from accretive acquisitions.

Fufeng Group: Earnings growth not gummed up (CIMB)


Fufeng Group
Current HK$4.20
Target HK$4.80
Earnings growth not gummed up

We expect Fufeng to achieve xanthan gum volume growth of 23% yoy in FY13, with ASP up 16% yoy, given Fufeng has locked 40,000t xanthan gum sales over its 64,000t capacity. We also expect MSG consolidation to continue in FY13, leading to a yoy flat MSG price.

We cut our FY12-13 earnings by 5.8-14.5%as the weak MSG price will drag down margins. But we upgrade FY14 earnings by 5.1%,driven by a 7.5% MSG ASP rise since we expect MSG consolidation to be completed in 2H13. This raises our DCF-based target price to HK$4.8 (WACC: 12.1%). Fufeng remains an Outperform, catalysed by the positive outlook for xanthan gum and bottoming MSG price in FY13.

Axis REIT: A Good Year; Awaiting Next Catalyst (MIB)


Axis REIT
Hold (unchanged)
Share price: MYR3.13
Target price: MYR3.05 (from MYR3.04 )
A Good Year; Awaiting Next Catalyst

 Maintain HOLD. Axis REIT (AXRB)’s FY12 results came in as expected, with core net profit accounting for 95% of our and consensus estimates. The proposed 5.6sen DPU for 4Q12 (YTD DPU: 18.6sen, +8% YoY) was also in line. We fine-tune our FY13/14 earnings forecasts by -0.1%/-0.5%. Our DCF-based TP is intact at MYR3.05. AXRB now offers an FY13 gross yield of 6.1% vs. the industry’s 6.7%.

Cache Logistics Trust: Still room for upside (OCBC)

Cache Logistics Trust:
Fair value    S$1.32
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.09
versus: Current price  S$1.27

Still room for upside
• 4Q12 performance in line
• Enhanced financial position
• Valuation remains attractive

Cache Logistics Trust (CACHE) turned in a consistent set of 4Q12 results after market close yesterday. FY12 DPU totalled 8.365 S cents (+1.6%), matching our/consensus full-year DPU forecasts of 8.29/8.3 S cents. This translates to an attractive FY12 yield of 6.4%, higher than the S-REIT sector average yield of 5.8%. CACHE’s portfolio occupancy as at 31 Dec 2012 remained at 100% as its leases are predominantly based on triple-net master lease structures.

M1: FY12 results mostly in line (OCBC)


M1:
Fair value    S$2.89
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.15
versus: Current price  S$2.75

FY12 results mostly in line
• Higher-than-expected tax expense
• Guides for moderate earnings growth
• Keeps minimum 80% payout ratio

M1 Ltd reported its FY12 results, which were mostly in line – revenue of S$1076.8m was 1.5% above our estimate, while net profit of S$146.5m was 3.3% below. We note that the shortfall was due to higher-than-expected tax expenses in 4Q12. M1 declared a final dividend of S$0.063/share and a special dividend of S$0.017/share, bringing the total full-year dividend to S$0.146 (versus S$0.145).

CapitaMall Trust: Solid 4Q12 performance (OCBC)


CapitaMall Trust:
Fair value    S$2.32
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.10
versus: Current price  S$2.16

Solid 4Q12 performance
• 4Q DPU exceeds expectations
• Reaping benefits of AEIs
• Strong lease and capital management

CapitaMall Trust (CMT) turned in a sturdy set of 4Q12 results last Friday. DPU saw a 2.6% growth to 2.36 S cents, despite S$15.3m capital distribution received from CapitaRetail China Trust was retained for corporate and working capital purposes. This brings the FY12 DPU to 9.46 S cents (+1.0%), slightly ahead of our full-year DPU projection of 9.16 S cents. Over the year, a total of 446 leases were renewed at an average positive rental reversion of 6.0% (FY11: 6.4%).

Sabana Shari’ah Compliant REIT : Above our expectation! (Phillip)


Sabana Shari’ah Compliant REIT
Target Price (SGD) 1.190
- Previous Target Price (SGD) 1.150
Closing Price (SGD) 1.185
Above our expectation!

Sabana REIT is a Singapore-based REIT with a mandate to invest in income-producing industrial real estate and real estate-related assets in Singapore and Asia with compliance to Shari’ah investment principles.

• 4Q12 (FY12) revenue S$21.5mn (S$81.8mn), NPI S$20.2mn (S$76.9mn), distributable income S$15.4mn (S$59.4mn)
• 4Q12 (FY12) DPU of 2.41 cents (9.28 cents)
• Maintain Neutral with revised target price of $1.190

Pavilion : Revenue growth boosted by additional rental space (MIDF)


Pavilion Real Estate Investment Trust
Price (18 Jan 13) RM 1.47
Target Price RM 1.42
Revenue growth boosted by additional rental space

Income within expectation: Pavilion Real Estate Investment Trust(Pavilion) registered realised profit of RM194.6m in FY12 which accounted for 102% of ours and consensus forecast.

Revenue growth driven by additional rental space: Total gross revenue increased by 6.2%qoq in 4QFY12 to RM91.9m, mainly due to higher contribution from Pavilion KL Mall (RM88.8m vs RM83.5m in 3QFY12). Revenue growth of Pavilion Tower was relatively flat (RM3m vs RM2.9m in 3QFY12).

CapitaRetail China Trust: Additional AEI for Minzhongleyuan (OCBC)


CapitaRetail China Trust:
Fair value    S$1.72
add: 12m dividend forecast  S$0.09
versus: Current price  S$1.80

Additional AEI for Minzhongleyuan
• 4Q12 results in line
• Fast-tracked AEI at MZLY
• Good LT outlook

CRCT's 4Q12 results were generally in line with our expectations. Gross revenue climbed by 3.9% YoY to S$37.9m and net property income rose 6.0% YoY to S$24.2m. The portfolio was valued at RMB7.6b, up 4.7% from Jun 2012.

Hutchison Port Holdings Trust: Delivering as expected (DBSV)


Hutchison Port Holdings Trust
BUY US$0.82
STI : 3,291.14
Price Target : 12-Month US$ 0.85 (Prev US$ 0.88)
Delivering as expected

• Results in line; volume growth of 5% in FY12
• FY12 DPU of 6.6UScts meets IPO guidance, boosted by one-off diversion of cash flows from capex deferrals
• DPU should be sustainable at the 6.0UScts level in FY13, still implying an attractive yield of 7.4%
• Leveraged to cyclical recovery in trade; maintain BUY at revised TP of US$0.85

Higher rates, weaker momentum (CIMB)


 Higher rates, weaker momentum
The upward momentum in container freight rates over the past three months pales in comparison to what was achieved in early 2012, and could mirror developments for the rest of the year. Equity investors should take note, since momentum is what drives share prices.

 We stay Neutral on shipping overall, and our container shipping stock calls are currently under review. Further upside in container shipping share prices could be capped to the 10-15% level, assuming peak 2012 P/BV multiples are reached, which appears to be too small for comfort in a volatile sector.

曾淵滄專欄:大行賺錢不擇手段


曾淵滄專欄:大行賺錢不擇手段 - 曾淵滄

去年,港交所(388)收購倫敦金屬交易所(LME),大行看死港交所必須配股或供股集資,當然,最好是配股集資,因為配股的對象就是這些大行,於是大行們齊齊唱衰港交所,人人都說港交所高價買LME,會影響港交所的盈利表現,結果港交所股價下跌,港交所最後也不得不以低價配股,大行得償所願,大行之前如此唱衰、唱淡港交所,但是港交所配股,數小時內就被大行搶購一空,反應如此好,大行為何搶購他們之前唱衰的港交所配的股?可見,大行之前的唱衰行動目的就是壓價。

現在,華創(291)以51億元人民幣收購金威(124)的啤酒業務,需不需要配股集資?若需要,配股前很可能也會遭到大行不斷地唱衰,目的與去年唱衰港交所一樣,就是壓價,逼華創低價配股給他們。

UBS tips Singapore's high-yield, high-beta plays

UBS tips Singapore's high-yield, high-beta plays
UBS expects Singapore's equity market to be rangebound in 2013. Singapore's economic restructuring and policy shift could result in higher labor costs and headwinds for companies, while the city-state's exports may not fully benefit from the mild external improvement as its electronics sector underperforms, the house says.

But it adds, "Low domestic interest rates, still-undemanding valuations, and attractive dividend yields could continue to limit the market's downside risks." It advises a balanced portfolio of high-dividend stocks, such as REITs and media companies, and high-beta stocks trading at low valuations, such as offshore & marine and commodity-related stocks. UBS expects Singapore's residential property market faces "a year of tests" and keeps a cautious view; it advises avoiding Singapore property developer stocks.

CapitaMalls Asia down 4.2%; Lacks catalysts: Religare


CapitaMalls Asia down 4.2%; Lacks catalysts: Religare

CapitaMalls Asia (JS8.SG) is down 4.2% at $2.08, the worst-performing STI component despite reporting 4Q12 revenue nearly doubled to $113.6 million; net profit for the period fell 10% on-year to $184.8 million on lower fair-value gains.

"It's not about the earnings," says Tata Goeyardi, an analyst at Religare Capital Markets. "The stock has done well. I just don't think there are any more catalysts on the stock to go forward except for the PATMI to go up," he says. "The problem is how do you realise value in CMA? It's not an earnings play. If you want an earnings play, you pick up a REIT." He notes CMA isn't looking to recycle its assets and it isn't paying a dividend; "you might as well buy CRCT (AU8U.SG)," he says.

马股蛇年大波动 1690以下逢低买进

马股蛇年大波动 1690以下逢低买进

(吉隆坡6日讯)马股週三再次面对卖压走低,下跌逾1%,跌破1620点,来到1614点,相信是投资者在农历新年前套利退场所致。 黄氏星展唯高达研究预测马股在即將来临的蛇年,將面临著更大的波动性,料在1500点至1750点之间摇摆,在1690点以下会是逢低进场机会。

富时大马综合指数週三,无视区域的乐观情绪,进一步扩大跌势,下挫19.21点或1.18%%,闭市报1614.14点,为12月5日以来最低,同时也是全天区域內表现最差的基准指数。马股由电讯股领跌,26只成份股下跌,只有大眾银行(PBBANK,1295,主板金融股)和合顺(UMW,4588,主板消费股)呈扬,其中下滑点数最高的3只成份股分別为数码网络(DIGI,6947,主板基建股)、亚通(AXIATA,6888,主板贸服股)及马电讯(TM,4863,主板贸服股)。

政府相关股不受影响 大选前趋弱下半年反弹


政府相关股不受影响 大选前趋弱下半年反弹
Created 02/07/2013 - 12:01
(吉隆坡6日讯)分析员认为,大选后的银行、房地产、油气和建筑股都会有上修机会,抗跌股如电讯和消费等则将下修。

马银行投银分析员预期,大选前股市会进一步趋弱,但下半年将反弹。

大选后的“基本情况”下、马股本益比处于13倍水平(富时隆综指1550点)时是累积的好时机,此时,银行、房地产和建筑领域都会有更高的估值。

此外,大选后油气领域也将“超越大市”,因为我国更广泛的能源议程将不变,国家石油公司(Petronas)资本开销也具备“吸引力”。

大选敏感神经再挑起 综指盘中大跌23点


大选敏感神经再挑起 综指盘中大跌23点
Created 02/07/2013 - 12:03
(吉隆坡6日讯)大选敏感神经今日再次在马股被挑起,导致富时隆综指盘中大跌23点,为农历新年封关前抛下震撼弹。

马股今早开盘约半小时突然出现贯压,富时隆综指滑落19.14点或1.17%至1614.21点低水平。

截至中午休市,指数暂企于1618.82点,半日跌14.52点或0.89%,为今日亚洲股市中表现最差的指数。

其中,马电讯(TM,4863,主板贸服股)以18仙或3.28%的跌幅,引领跌势。

Singapore-dollar-under-selling-pressure


Demand-for-shoebox-units-cools-off


MISC to return to KLCI eventually?


Lenovo President: The PC Industry Is Not Dead



Does It Matter Who Is at the Helm of the BOJ?


Hashim: The Dry Bulk Market Is in a Tailspin


Asian Stocks Rebound on Earnings Optimism



最牛银行股两月暴涨逾八成 后市走势存争议


达沃斯焦点:日圆汇率与货币战争


Where Is Gold Heading in 2013?



Death of the PC?


Is Apple Dead Money?




Thursday, February 7, 2013

Sunway REIT’s private placement raises RM320m

Sunway REIT’s private placement raises RM320m
Business & Markets 2013

Written by Bernama  
Thursday, 07 February 2013 09:43

KUALA LUMPUR: Sunway Real Estate Investment Trust’s (Sunway REIT) 214,765,000 new units have raised RM320 million which will be utilised to repay the short-term facility for the acquisition of the land and building of Sunway Medical Centre (SMC) and defray related expenses.

Sunway REIT Management Sdn Bhd, the manager of Sunway REIT, said the private placement was subscribed 2.8 times with strong interest from new and existing investors, both domestically and internationally.

Maybank IB Research maintains Buy on S P Setia, ups TP to RM4.25


Maybank IB Research maintains Buy on S P Setia, ups TP to RM4.25
Business & Markets 2013

Written by Charlotte Chong of the edgedaily.com  
Thursday, 07 February 2013 11:07

KUALA LUMPUR (7 Feb): Maybank Investment Bank Research has maintained its Buy rating on S P Setia Bhd (SPSB) at RM3.10 with a higher target price of RM4.25 (from RM4.21) following the developer’s latest land acquisition.

SPSB has entered into an agreement with KUMPULAN PERANGSANG SELANGOR [] (KPS) for a proposed mixed development project on the existing 194.7-acre Perangsang Templer Golf Club in Templer Park.

Olam’s Two Envelopes Hold Names of CEO Successor: Southeast Asia


Olam’s Two Envelopes Hold Names of CEO Successor: Southeast Asia
By Michelle Yun - Feb 7, 2013
Sunny Verghese, chief executive officer of Olam International Ltd., the commodity trader short- seller Carson Block said will fail, meets with the board every six months to review the company’s succession plans in detail.

“My board has two envelopes,” said Verghese, who founded the Singapore-based company more than two decades ago. “There is an emergency succession plan if something happens to me that has not been anticipated. But there’s a systematic and more long-term plan as well.”

马航 末季料转盈1280万


马航 末季料转盈1280万
Created 02/06/2013 - 11:57
【目标价:1.02令吉】

最新进展:

马航(MAS,3786,主板贸服股)2012年12月营运数据统计不错。乘客承载率达81.4%,是自2002年4月以来最高。另外,货运承载率比较弱达70.5%。

全年乘客承载率为74.7%,按年跌0.3个百分点,货运承载率按年涨0.9个百分点,达70.1%。

行家建议:

马航过去6个月的营运显著改善,表现媲美其他世界级航空,如新航和国泰航空。乘客承载率接近80%,马航预计能保持赚钱。

Stock market rebound expected in second half


The Star Online > Business
Thursday February 7, 2013
Stock market rebound expected in second half

By YVONNE TAN
yvonne@thestar.com.my

PETALING JAYA: The market will rebound in the second half of this year while defensive stocks such as telecommunications and consumer stocks, which are in focus now, could de-rate then amid increasing investor appetite.

Maybank IB Research said this in a market strategy report, noting that investors were currently focused on the likely outcome of the impending general election slated for the first quarter, with most taking a neutral stand, saying they would be constructive once there was clarity on the political front.

MAS releases details on how it is raising RM3.1bil.


The Star Online > Business
Thursday February 7, 2013
MAS releases details on how it is raising RM3.1bil.

KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysia Airlines (MAS) has issued a circular to its shareholders, giving details of its proposed capital restructuring and renounceable rights issue to raise RM3.1bil.

Under the rights issue, which is to follow its capital reduction plan, it has proposed the issuance of new ordinary shares of 10 sen in MAS to raise RM3.1bil in gross proceeds.

The issue price for the rights share would be announced at a date closer to the implementation of the rights share issue, it said in a filing with Bursa Malaysia.

附加股籌資添疑慮 馬航盤整股價難升


附加股籌資添疑慮 馬航盤整股價難升
報導︰林慧蓮

  (吉隆坡6日訊)10年來業務重整計劃未見明朗化,馬航(MAS,3786,主要板貿易)削減面值不成問題,附加股計劃卻添疑慮;MIDF證券研究建議投資者按兵不動、靜待2月底討論出爐。

 馬航5年內前后推出3次附加股計劃籌資,MIDF證券研究在電訪中回應《中國報》指出:“我們不知道它(馬航)需要多少資本開銷。”

 該行指出,馬航現階段正與股東討論附加股計劃事宜,預計本月28日將有結果。

私下配售超認購2.8倍 雙威產託復牌跌1仙

私下配售超認購2.8倍 雙威產託復牌跌1仙

(吉隆坡6日訊)雙威產托(SUNREIT,5176,主要板產托)私下配售2億1476萬個新單位,以籌資3億2000萬令吉,獲超額認購2.8倍,但無助股價漲勢,復牌跌1仙。

 該產托管理公司雙威產托管理(Sunway REIT Management Sdn Bhd)今日發佈文告指出,籌資所得將用以償還購地與雙威醫療中心(Sunway Medical Centre)的短期債務。

 “這項私下配售獲海內外投資者熱烈響應,超額認購2.8倍,待這計劃完成后,可助增加雙威產托流動率。”

高盛:港股今年見25000


高盛:港股今年見25000
http://paper.wenweipo.com   [2013-02-07]

 香港文匯報訊(記者 劉璇)投行高盛發表報告指出,去年下半年內地經濟情況改善,市場預期十八大後內地會進行結構性改革,內地今年經濟將出現溫和的周期性復甦,因此相信2013年內地經濟增長可達8.1%。預計恒生國企指數於年底有機會升至13,700點水平,恒指方面可升至25,000點。內地企業盈利增長可達9%至11%,市盈率會由現時約9.7倍升至10.3倍。該行又將公共股和銀行股升級至「增持」,將券商股降級至「中性」。

內地經濟增長料達8.1%
 高盛中國首席策略分析師朱悅指,預料今年影響內地經濟增長的因素包括,宏觀經濟改善,中國經濟硬著陸的風險控制,今年市場將更傾向關注結構性改革,以及資金流動性和經濟改革的進度。市場對於中國經濟周期性復甦基本沒有懷疑,相信未來拉動股市的因素,主要將是流動性以及結構性改革,如果政府在換屆後的一至兩季內推出更多針對改革的政策,相信會對市場形成較強支持,不過改革步伐快慢難以估計。改革重點要待三月兩會舉行後才進一步知曉。

周大福:10月前生意難見銳升

周大福:10月前生意難見銳升
2013年2月7日
【明報專訊】作為本地零售寒暑表的珠寶及奢侈品銷售,去年底聖誕旺季期間出現優於預期的增幅,被認為是市道復蘇先兆。

不過珠寶行業龍頭周大福(1929)認為,去年11、12月的反彈形勢尚未明確,預料最快須待內地「兩會」過後生意方重拾動力,對前景仍採取保守態度。但管理層強調,內地開店計劃不會放慢,如遇有合適機會,在香港也會繼續擴充。

內地領導層換屆在去年底完成,市場普遍認為政治不穩定因素大致消除,奢侈品消費將再度蓬勃。周大福董事總經理黃紹基認為, 雖然中央領導層已完成交接,但各級省市政府的換屆以及經濟發展路向尚未完全確定,「這些都要待3月『人大』召開後才能落實,過程至少需要幾個月時間,所以我們(對前景)還是保守一點較好」。黃估計,生意最快要到10月起方可見到明顯增長。

巴菲特 捉心理錢搵錢


巴菲特 捉心理錢搵錢

股神巴菲特早年收購藍籌印花公司(Blue Chip Stamps),及收購私人飛機租賃公司,表面上風馬牛不相及,卻是展示高超財技。推崇價值投資的美聯工商舖(00459)行政總裁黃漢成亦「跨界」發掘高回報產品。

儲印花換禮品一直是商戶慣用的促銷活動,原來股神巴菲特早於一九七○年,已睇中這種消費者的心理,透過投資旗艦巴郡,收購美國一間專做相關印花生意的公司藍籌印花,股神為何會進行這項另類投資,背後原來又是股神高超財技的昇華。

三隻A股ETF波幅差距解讀(下)

三隻A股ETF波幅差距解讀(下)
上周提及,基於發行商之間的競爭,我們預期安碩A50(02823)、南方A50(02822)及華夏滬深三百(03188)三隻A股ETF窩輪的引伸差距將隨着市場競爭進一步收窄。今周再由溢價、結構及期權供應等角度出發,分析三隻A股ETF的波幅差距。

三隻ETF窩輪的引伸定價,其一,是參考A股的波幅;其二,是ETF跟隨A股的程度。即市對比三隻ETF的表現,投資者不難發現安碩A50是較容易偏離A股,此因素可於溢價變動反映。

以今年一月為例,安碩A50的溢價介乎5.5%至接近12%,高低位相差近6.4%,期內南方A50及華夏滬深三百的溢價高低差幅僅為3.6%及3.1%。

德心應手:置富產業 成功增值


德心應手:置富產業 成功增值
歐洲政局不穩定,加上農曆新年在即,大市趁機整固,資金流向防守性較高股份,其中置富產業信託(00778)昨日再創上市新高。集團積極擴大旗下物業組合,並為現在物業進行資產增值措施(AEIs),推動收益增長。去年全年收入同比上升22.5%至11.1億元,其中物業收入升幅為22.8%至7.9億元;物業出租率升至接近98%水平。去年續租租金調升率達19.8%,為集團成立以來錄得的最高增長率之一;預料今年有40%樓面面積租約到期,而續租租金有望保持20%加幅。

成本控制見效益

馬鞍山廣場完成資產增值措施後,期內收入增加24.1%,投資回報率為73%;置富第一城投資回報率超過20%,銀禧薈將於今年上半年完成,目標投資回報率為15%。隨着資產增值項目完成,收益料進一步增加。另外,集團成本控制措施見成效,期內成本對收益比率從二○一一年同期仍稍為下降至27%。

里昂測蛇股五月飛九月插

里昂測蛇股五月飛九月插

里昂昨發表一年一度的「風水指數」指今年屬「黑水蛇年」,天干地支五行俱全,五月火勢旺盛,蔓延至六、七月將見高位,不過,蛇與「脫皮」密不可分,慎防下半年有突如其來的轉勢。

里昂銷售經理高頌妍指,二月陰性向上令恒指溫和向好,三月份可進一步攀升試溫,惟四月未見有特別能量,故升勢暫停,直至五至七月份火勢興旺。因期間旺土,而土生金,預計資源股引領的反彈,將促使恒指在七月底達致蛇年高位。

不過,隨着下半年蛇「脫皮」,金、水驟升,恒指持續跳水,九月底速見蛇年低位,十月份五行重拾平衡,恒指大幅反彈,雖然及後再度下滑,但高頌妍表示,明年一月份恒指將回升,並高於年初開市水位。

DBS quarterly profit misses estimates as lending margin narrows


WRITTEN BY BLOOMBERG  
WEDNESDAY, 06 FEBRUARY 2013 10:28
DBS Group Holdings, Southeast Asia’s largest bank, said fourth-quarter profit rose 4%, excluding a gain from the sale of a Philippine bank, missing analysts’ estimates as loan margin narrowed.

Earnings before the $450 million gain increased to $760 million from $731 million a year earlier, the lender said in a statement to the Singapore stock exchange today. That fell short of the S$795 million average of eight analysts’ estimates adjusted by Bloomberg. Net income jumped 66% to to $1.2 billion including the one-time item.

DBS Group : Strong fundamentals, Attractive dividend yields (PHillip)


DBS Group
Target Price (SGD) 16.1
- Previous Target Price (SGD) 15.1
Closing Price (SGD) 14.38
Strong fundamentals, Attractive dividend yields

DBS Group is the holding company for DBS Bank Ltd that provides various banking services for consumers, corporate, SMEs and wholesale banking activities mainly in Asia. Its main operations are in Singapore and Hong Kong, and its current focus is on China, Taiwan and India.

• DBS may benefit from the gradual recovery in China, growth in overseas contribution, especially in fees and commission, from ASEAN and Greater China. Dividend yield of 3.9% remains attractive.

Jaya Holdings : A new chapter of growth (DBSV)

Jaya Holdings
BUY S$0.69
Price Target : 12-month S$ 0.85
A new chapter of growth

• Clearer direction with repositioned businesses
• Strategic alliance with IHC a potential game changer
• Earnings have troughed; projecting FY12-14 EPS CAGR of 54%
• Maintain BUY, TP S$0.85

Repositioned businesses provide clearer direction. Jaya has repositioned itself as a service provider to the offshore energy sector. Its core focus on chartering ensures a higher level of recurring income, while a move away from speculative shipbuilding would reduce earnings volatility.

ASL Marine : Laggard recovery play (DBSV)


ASL Marine Holdings
BUY S$0.73
Price Target : 12-Month S$ 0.90
Laggard recovery play.

• Enlarged orderbook from recovering OSV demand to underpin 52% rebound in FY13 earnings
• Small acquisition to move ASL up the value chain, build on its niche in dredgers
• A laggard recovery play; BUY on compelling valuations, TP S$0.90

Doubling of orderbook on recovery in demand for newbuild OSVs. We estimate that ASL has secured S$643m of orders since mid-2011 on the resurgence in demand for new-build vessels. This has led to a more than doubling of its orderbook since, to S$573m as of end 1QFY13.

Genting Hong Kong: NCL IPO unlocks value (CIMB)

Genting Hong Kong
Current US$0.41
Target US$0.55
NCL IPO unlocks value

 The Norwegian Cruise Line IPO has been very successful with the share price up 30% on the first day of trading, valuing the company at US$5bnvs. our estimate of US$2.4bn. It is valued as a premium high-growth play with a 60% 2-year EPSCAGR vs. its peers’22-25%.

Guidance from the IPO shows that our numbers and valuations of NCL were too conservative. Two new ships that will command a 30% premium in ticket pricing are key growth drivers for NCLand GENHK. We increase our GENHK EPS forecasts by 3-40% and use NCL's IPO valuation of US$3.7bnto increase our RNAV target price. Maintain Outperform.

Giordano : Still our favourite (DBSV)

Giordano
BUY HK$7.40
Price Target : 12-Month HK$ 8.25 (Prev HK$7.0)
Still our favourite

Expect stronger performance in FY13 on base effect and improving macros
Strong cash flow to support attractive yield of 6%+
Despite strong performance last year, valuation remains below historical average. Maintain BUY, with higher TP of HK$8.25.

Solid Asian performance helped underlying earnings. Sustaining weak consumer sentiment in China means Giordano’s 4Q performance would likely remain soft. However, we expect this to be partly offset by solid growth in other markets such as SE Asia and Middle East.

Sabana Shari’ah Compliant REIT 4Q12: Looking To Lease Renewals In 2013 (UOBKH)


Sabana Shari’ah Compliant REIT
Share Price S$1.19
Target Price S$1.30
4Q12: Looking To Lease Renewals In 2013

Upside surprises could emerge from higher-than-expected rentals and occupancies from 45% of leases due for renewal in 2013. With AUM surpassing S$1.1b, it opens new growth avenue from development. The impact from the recently announced sellers’ stamp duty for industrial properties is minimal. Maintain BUY and target price of S$1.30.

Results
• Results in line with expectations. Sabana Shari’ah Compliant REIT (Sabana) reported 4Q12 distributable income of S$15.4m and DPU of 2.41 cents (+11.1% yoy, +3.0% qoq). Full-year DPU of 9.28 S cents is in line with our expectations, accounting for 99.8% of our 2012 DPU estimate.

Cambridge Industrial Trust: More surprises in 2013 (DBSV)


Cambridge Industrial Trust
BUY S$0.695
Price Target : 12-Month S$ 0.75 (Prev: S$0.72)
More surprises in 2013

• 4Q12 results in line; NAV written up by 4.4% with potential for further expansion
• Acquisitions and AEIs to contribute positively in the coming quarters
• BUY, raised to S$0.75

Highlights
4Q12 results in line. Cambridge REIT (CREIT) reported a 15.6% and 20.7% y-o-y rise in topline and net property income to S$24.0m and S$20.8m respectively. Growth was largely attributable to the additional income from the acquisition of five properties, rental escalations and higher reversions from its multi-tenanted properties, which more than offsets the impact of divestments.

CapitaMall Trust: Compressed yields (CIMB)


CapitaMall Trust
Current S$2.16
Target S$2.23
Compressed yields

 We believe that CMT’s forward yields of 4.6% are un-compelling and have priced in growth potential. Further DPU growth could come from more AEIs and acquisitions, though these could come at the price of high asset values and income vacuum during the development phase.

4Q/FY12 DPUs (24%/97%) were slightly below our estimates and consensus on higher interest costs and retained earnings. We tweak our DPUs to reflect 4Q results but keep our DDM-based target price. Maintain Underperform. We see de-rating catalysts arising from weaker-than-expected rental reversions.

Pavilion REIT: A Strong End To 2012 (MIB)

Pavilion REIT
Buy (unchanged)
Share price: MYR1.47
Target price: MYR1.63 (from MYR1.45)
A Strong End To 2012

 Maintain BUY. FY12 results came in as expected, accounting for 101- 105% of our and consensus full-year estimates. We raise our FY13-14 earnings forecasts by 6%/4% and introduce our FY15 net profit forecast. Our DCF-based TP is also raised to MYR1.63 (+11%). PavREIT currently trades at a CY13 gross yield of 4.8% vs. the large-cap REIT average of 4.9%. Implied total return is 16% based on our TP.

Double-digit rental growth. Excluding revaluation gains of MYR436m (at cap rates of 6.3-6.5%), 4Q12 core net profit of MYR50.3m (+3% QoQ) lifted FY12 core earnings to MYR194.6m. The QoQ growth in earnings was driven by positive rental reversions (+8% QoQ and +12% YoY to MYR18.80psf in average rate) at the Pavilion KL Mall and better occupancy at Pavilion Tower (100% occupied, from 69% in 2011). 2H DPU was 3.51sen, taking FY12 DPU to 6.87sen (in line).

CNOOC:Production Target Disappointing (UOBKH)


CNOOC (883 HK)
Share Price HK$16.40
Target Price HK$17.50
2013 Strategy Preview: Production Target Disappointing,
Maintain HOLD

CNOOC’s 2013 production target of 338m-348m boe (-1-2% yoy) is below our previous expectations. Meanwhile, we expect continued cost inflation to drag down 2013 earnings and the Nexen deal, which is expected to be closed by end-1Q13, will not be earnings-accretive. Maintain HOLD and cut target price to HK$17.50. Entry price: HK$15.00.

What’s New
• CNOOC released its 2013 strategy preview and held an analyst briefing yesterday.

Genting Singapore: Sunnier days ahead (DBSV)


Genting Singapore
HOLD S$1.47
STI : 3,285.90
Price Target : 12-Month S$ 1.60 (Prev S$ 1.30)
Sunnier days ahead

• MBS 4Q12: Strong rebound in rolling chip, mass picking up
• RWS: May see similar recovery with RWS running at full steam, potential new ventures in 12-18 months
• Raise 2013-14F earnings by 7-11%; Maintain Hold but raise TP to S$1.60 (from S$1.30)

Signs of recovery. MBS’ 4Q12 EBITDA came in at US$303m/ S$373m (-29% y-o-y, +16% q-o-q), bringing full-year EBITDA to US$1.37bn/ S$1.68bn (-11% y-o-y). The y-o-y drag came from lower VIP win rate (2.14% vs 4Q11: 3.3%; 3Q12: 1.8%), slower mass volume growth (- 2%), and an additional US$24m property tax assessment.

曾淵滄專欄 07.02.13:揭濠賭股下跌真相


曾淵滄專欄:揭濠賭股下跌真相 - 曾淵滄

昨日我提到,A股微升而A股ETF下跌,可趁機買入,昨日A股無升跌,但是兩隻A50 ETF的股價出現反彈。將來若再有這種機會,仍然值得博一博。

昨日恒指回升,但澳門賭業股全線下跌,一般跌幅為5%,市場傳出一些不利傳言,所謂傳言,當然是不知真假,正如前日市場傳出不利於樓市的傳言一樣,股價也在傳言的影響之下急跌,我認為,昨日澳門賭業股股價急跌,與前日地產股股價急跌一樣,真正的原因不是擔心傳言,而是股價升幅已大,一有不利傳言出現,許多人馬上套利離場,保住已到手的利潤。

REITs: High yields a magnet for investors

REITs: High yields a magnet for investors
Personal Finance

Written by Ho Ching-Ling of The Edge  
Wednesday, 06 February 2013 00:00

MALAYSIAN real estate investment trusts (REITs) have benefited from their status as high-yield investments in volatile global market conditions, gaining the favour of investors during the year and becoming The Edge's pick as the sector of the year.

REITs made an appearance on Bursa Malaysia with the listing of Axis REIT in 2005. The sector grew steadily but it did not grab the attention of investors until recently.

MAS shows slight improvement in operating statistics


MAS shows slight improvement in operating statistics
Business & Markets 2013

Written by theedgemalaysia.com  
Wednesday, 06 February 2013 10:02

MALAYSIAN AIRLINE SYSTEM BHD []
(Feb 5, 68.5 sen)
Upgrade to reduce (from sell) at 69 sen with a target price of 64 sen: As anticipated, demand for air travel improved in the fourth quarter of the financial year ended December 2012 (4QFY12) primarily due to seasonality, coinciding with the year-end festive and school holiday seasons.

Sunway REIT placement units priced RM1.49 each

Sunway REIT placement units priced RM1.49 each
Business & Markets 2013

Written by Chong Jin Hun of theedgemalaysia.com  
Wednesday, 06 February 2013 12:14

KUALA LUMPUR (Feb 6): Sunway Real Estate Investment Trust (Sunway REIT) has fixed the issue price of its 214.77 million new placement shares at RM1.49 each to raise RM320 million.

In a statement to the exchange today, Sunway REIT said proceeds from the exercise will be used to fully repay the company's bank loans used to finance the acquisition of the Sunway Medical Centre property from Sunway Bhd  for RM310 million, and defray related expenses.

进度超前 完工90.4% 槟第二大桥带动周边房市


进度超前 完工90.4% 槟第二大桥带动周边房市
Created 02/06/2013 - 11:55
(吉隆坡5日讯)槟城第二大桥的工程进度比预期快,除了证明建筑领域不存在执行上的问题,更将激励起槟州两岸南部未发展的房地产潜能。

在参观槟城第二大桥工程以及出席第二大桥有限公司(简称JKSB)汇报之后,MIDF研究分析员表示,对于目前工程进度超前并已达90.4%完工,感到相当惊喜。

JKSB更是放眼在今年9月8日正式完工,比原先的11月8日目标提早了两个月。

Latitude Tree to buy firms for RM117m

The Star Online > Business
Wednesday February 6, 2013
Latitude Tree to buy firms for RM117m

KUALA LUMPUR: Latitude Tree Holdings Bhd has proposed to acquire all the subsidiaries of Latitude Tree International Group Ltd for an aggregate consideration of RM117.01mil.

Latitude Tree International is a 77.62%-owned subsidiary of Latitude Tree Holdings.

Latitude Tree Holdings in a filing with Bursa Malaysia said the subsidiaries comprised Latitude Tree Vietnam Joint Stock Company, Grob Holz Company Ltd, Latitude Tree International Ltd and Linkage Creation International Co Ltd.

MAS-Qantas pact?


The Star Online > Business
Wednesday February 6, 2013
MAS-Qantas pact?

British Airways likely to look at connectivity into Asia, Australia via KLIA
By B.K. SIDHU
bksidhu@thestar.com.my

Malaysia Airports Holdings Bhd managing director Tan Sri Bashir Ahmad (inset) says BA has indicated interest to come back to KL International Airport.
PETALING JAYA: After several failed attempts, Australia's Qantas wants to work with Malaysia Airlines (MAS) to expand its network within Asia.

At the other end of the aviation spectrum half-way around the world, however, British Airways (BA) may cut ties with Qantas over its code share. If this materialises, it will augur well for MAS to work towards filling this void on the London-Asia-Australia connection.

DBS Shares Lower After Missing Analyst Estimates


DBS Group Profit Gains 66% Led by Bank Stake Sale


Credit Suisse Raises China 2013 GDP Forecast


Chinese Shares: On the Rebound?


Why the Dow Might Hit 15000 or More in 2013


How Important is Dow 14,000?


Why Long-Term Investors Should Be Buying Stocks



Bove on Banks: I Love Them All!



《機不可失2》黃德几x林伽遙 EP92 2015年前加息機會極微?


民生等四大银行成2012年度盈利王


Wednesday, February 6, 2013

亚航 马航前景唱好


亚航 马航前景唱好

(吉隆坡5日讯)在航空旅游需求于年杪高涨的带动下,亚洲航空(AIRASIA,5099,主板贸服股)和马航(MAS,3786,主板贸服股)双双在去年12月取得创纪录的载客率(loadfactors),促使市场分析员持续看好两者的前景。

亚洲航空和马航皆在去年12月录得不俗的营运数据,分析员看好前者得以持续加强其区域竞爭力,而后者亦稳步企於其復甦轨道上。

根据亚洲航空管理层,该公司大马业务於去年12月的载客率创歷史新高,促使其末季载客率达82.1%,略低於2011年末季的82.3%。此外,泰国与印尼亚航的末季载客率分別达81.8%和75.6%,亚航整体末季载客率则达到80.8%,低於去年末季的80.1%。

瑞信料今年再升 非大牛市


瑞信料今年再升 非大牛市
2013年2月6日
【明報專訊】瑞信昨日派出8隻利市股(見表),集中在房地產、工業及消費領域,認為經濟轉好會令股市重現活力。但該行亦提醒過去5個月股市升幅頗大,而且對內地結構改革進程存疑,預計今年不會是大牛市。

集中房地產工業消費領域

瑞信董事兼亞洲細價股證券研究主管劉紹文表示,過去幾個月上游工業情逐漸改善,低息環境持續,內地經濟亦已企穩,預期內地及香港細價股有長期投資機會,並預測這幾隻利市股的潛在股價平均升幅可達18%。

投資SUN國度:應付當前市況 三招可保平安

投資SUN國度:應付當前市況 三招可保平安


矮仔上樓梯的形態,結果由一棍暴跌來結束,心理上是早有預期,遲早要還一鋪,不過今次突襲的模式,實在令人有點沮喪。

地產股成重災區,新辣招傳聞四起,其實上周五淡友已有手影,昨日只是發動總攻擊。很明顯香港正在中國化,港股正在A股化,政策主宰股價短期走勢,而保密工夫的水平,和內地看來也差不多。正如周一本欄所寫,一是趁機買跟大隊跌的嘉華國際(00173),一是等待政府辣招揭盅,博春江鴨平淡倉的時候才追入。

內銀捱沽 工行否認超貸遭約談


內銀捱沽 工行否認超貸遭約談

內地四大銀行一月新增貸款按年顯著上升,被指上月收到信貸投放超標警告的工行(01398),透過內地傳媒反駁報道,指該行未被人行「約談」,一月下旬亦沒有停放貸款。不過,分析料貸存比率較貼近上限的中行(03988),有可能超標放貸。

受市傳中央限制貸款影響,內銀股被拋售,成跌市重災區之一。中行及交行(03328)跌逾3%;工行及建行(00939)跌逾2%。

馬熔錫基本因素佳‧第四季有望轉盈


馬熔錫基本因素佳‧第四季有望轉盈
Created 02/06/2013 - 18:35
(吉隆坡6日訊)馬熔錫機構(MSC,5916,主板工業產品組)基本因素依然受看好,預料核心營運將在2012財政年第四季轉虧為盈。

不過,該公司旗下公司PT Koba Tin'CoW及KM資源業務前景仍然不明朗,則是最大隱憂。

僑丰研究指出,近期錫價從低位回彈43.6%,惟該公司股價卻繼續下滑,相信是旗下的PT Koba Tin'CoW潛在業務前景持續不明朗,以及KM資源的礦鐵儲存量減少,惟賬面值卻保持偏高的兩大利空所致。

該行認為,該公司盡力採取各項措施解決上述兩大問題,不過,卻是它控制能力範圍以外。同時,印尼發出新出口管制,禁止銷售純度少過99.9%或更好的提煉錫,若一旦實施,肯定緊縮錫的供應。

錫價谷底反彈44% 馬熔錫末季或轉盈


(吉隆坡5日訊)儘管錫價近期由谷底反彈44%,但馬熔錫(MSC,5916,主要板工業)股價仍下滑。

 雖然如此,券商仍看好馬熔錫,並期望該公司2012財年第4季業績轉虧為盈。

 錫價去年7月跌入谷底,如今大漲43.6%,加上印尼也頒布新出口規則,限制銷售純度低于99.9%的錫,若實施該項計劃,必定收緊錫供應。

 據僑豐投資研究,儘管馬熔錫努力延長科巴錫業工作合約及增加KM資源礦儲量,但兩者表現欠佳。

 馬熔錫位于印尼的合資公司科巴錫業(PT Koba Tin)仍暫停運作,所以對于錫價反彈並無造成影響,較低的開銷能減少損失。

维持抗跌策略 宜买入经济转型概念股


维持抗跌策略 宜买入经济转型概念股
Created 02/05/2013 - 07:55
(吉隆坡4日讯)机构投资者持续因随时举行的全国大选而采取谨慎态度,不过,依然有意累积具备投资主题的股项,尤其是与经济转型执行方案有关的公司。

分析员因而建议投资者维持抗跌策略,同时寻机买入大幅滑落且与经济转型执行方案(ETP)相关的股项。

据大华继显分析员,步入2013年,本地和新加坡的机构投资者对马股依然维持谨慎,并且预计市场会进一步回落。

多空一线:大马散装货运上挑RM1.38

多空一线:大马散装货运上挑RM1.38
Created 02/05/2013 - 12:56

大马散装货运(Maybulk,5077,主板贸服股)于2月4日闭市时反弹了。该股闭市时收1.37令吉,按日起3仙或2.24%。

该股60分钟线图表走势于2月4日间的交投趋势成功突破一道短期下降趋势线(B1:B2)上报收。

大马散装货运60分钟线平滑异同移动均线指标(MACD)于2月4日间的交投走势已告转强,处于“0”支撑线上波动。

Salcon unit bags job from Sime Darby

Salcon unit bags job from Sime Darby
Business & Markets 2013
Written by Bernama  
Tuesday, 05 February 2013 10:14

KUALA LUMPUR: Envitech Sdn Bhd has been awarded a RM11.72 million contract by Sime Darby Elmina Development Sdn Bhd for thedesign, CONSTRUCTION [] and commissioning of the first module of the 65,000-population equivalent (PE) sewage treatment plant and pumping station in Shah Alam, Selangor.

Envitech, a 60% owned subsidiary of Salcon Engineering Bhd, is in turn a wholly owned subsidiary of SALCON BHD [].

In a statement to Bursa Malaysia yesterday, Salcon said the contract is for 65 weeks from Feb 12 to May 13.

Maybank IB: Buy MAS with TP RM 1.02 on high load factor


Maybank IB: Buy MAS with TP RM 1.02 on high load factor
Business & Markets 2013
Written by Charlotte Chong of theedgemalaysia.com  
Tuesday, 05 February 2013 12:13

KUALA LUMPUR (Feb 5): Maybank IB Research is maintaining its ‘buy’ call on Malaysian Airline System (MAS), with an unchanged target price of RM 1.02 per share backed by the “inspiring performance” of the flag carrier of Malaysia.

Maybank IB, in its note today, said that the target price is based on 2013 adjusted enterprise value/Ebitda of 7.7 times, which is 20% above the Asia Pacific airline peers given that it is in the midst of a turnaround, expected to be followed by strong profit growth thereafter.

CSC Steel 4Q turns in profits, declares 7 sen dividends for FY12


CSC Steel 4Q turns in profits, declares 7 sen dividends for FY12
Business & Markets 2013
Written by Janice Melissa Thean of theedgemalaysia.com  
Tuesday, 05 February 2013 19:08

KUALA LUMPUR (Feb 5): CSC Steel Holdings Bhd was back in the black in the latest quarter, posting earnings of RM5.62 million for its fourth quarter ended Dec 31, 2012 against losses of RM2.06 million in similar quarter last year.

For the same period, revenue fell 2.7% from RM276.85 million to RM269.57 million.

In a filing to Bursa Malaysia, CSC Steel announced a 5.2% decline in net profit to RM28.01 million from RM29.55 million for the full financial year ended Dec 31, 2012.

Wilmar: Will The Uptrend Continue?


04 FEBRUARY 2013
Wilmar: Will The Uptrend Continue?
By Robin Han

Wilmar International tumbled in 2012.

After which, it went through a very long consolidation pattern of almost six months. This is likely to become a long-term bottom for the counter.

Recently, it has moved up by more than $0.60 cents. From the weekly chart, we can see that both the MACD and the MAs (7MA and 13MA) are indicating a turn-up.

Last week, it broke the significant resistance level of at $3.75. The uptrend is still healthy – considering the long consolidation-pattern-turned-bottom – it is likely to have more steam to continue.

如果对苹果产品感兴趣,不妨投资于赫比国际


如果对苹果产品感兴趣,不妨投资于赫比国际
文: 陈挚文 (译:朱爱伦) 2013年02月01日 企业摘要
或许不少投资者已对赫比国际(Hi-P International)产生兴趣,它是一家低市值电子制造商。公司的股价在过去一年起起落落,由于其来自移动器材业的大客户表现欠佳。

这家新加坡企业在过去几年逐渐转型为一家大型供应商,为电信、消费电子及电脑业供应机电模块。公司茁壮成长为电子代工生产业内的环球商家,甚至可与台湾巨头富士康(Foxconn Technology)并驾齐驱。

公司在新加坡、中国、泰国及波兰设有14家厂房,并在电子制造业内赫赫有名,因为它主要是为家喻户晓的大型移动器材生产商,像苹果、黑莓手机制造商Research In Motion(RIM)及亚马逊(Amazon)服务。

Mapletree Logistics Trust Looks fairly valued; Catalyst limited


Mapletree Logistics Trust
Hold (unchanged)
Share price: SGD1.16
Target price: SGD1.16 (from SGD1.14)
Looks fairly valued; Catalyst limited

 3Q & 9M FY3/13 results inline. 9MFY3/13 revenue at SGD232m (+13% YoY) was 73% of ours and 76% of consensus estimate. 3QFY3/13 revenue at SGD77m (flat QoQ, +8% YoY), was 24% of ours and 25% of consensus estimate. 9MFY3/13 DPU at 5.13 SG-cts (+3% YoY) was 73% of ours and consensus estimates. 3QFY3/13 DPU at 3.53 SG-cts (+0.6% QoQ, +1% YoY) was 25% of ours and consensus estimates. Aggregate leverage inched down to 35.9% from 37% last quarter. Interest rate for 3QFY3/13 averaged 2.40% with an average term of debt of 4.1 years.

CapitaMall Trust: AEI Plans Under Wraps For Now (KE)


CapitaMall Trust
Buy (unchanged)
Share price: SGD2.16
Target price: SGD2.36 (from SGD2.29)
AEI Plans Under Wraps For Now

Tip of the iceberg. CapitaMall Trust (CMT) reported a 4Q12 distributable income of SGD79.8m (+6% YoY; -1% QoQ), for a full-year distributable income of SGD316.9m (+5% YoY). This translates to a 4Q12 DPU of 2.36 cents and FY12 DPU of 9.46 cents, in line with expectations. We expect the recently completed AEIs to contribute more meaningfully in FY13, with a high possibility of announcements on new AEIs to be made in the 1Q13 results. Maintain BUY.

Yangzijiang Shipbuilding: Preparing future funds (OCBC)

Yangzijiang Shipbuilding:
Fair value    S$0.95
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.05
versus: Current price  S$1.02

Preparing future funds
• 330m warrants at S$0.0605 each
• No need of cash for now
• No near term impact on EPS

Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (YZJ) has proposed an issue of 330m warrants at a price of RMB0.3072 (S$0.0605) for each warrant. Each warrant carries the right to subscribe for one new ordinary share in YZJ at the price of RMB7.617/share (S$1.50).

Fortune REIT: Rebound in HK retail sales in Nov 2012 (OCBC)


Fortune REIT:
Fair value    HK$7.28
add: 12m dividend forecast  HK$0.34
versus: Current price  HK$6.57

Rebound in HK retail sales in Nov 2012
• Retail rebounds in Nov
• Active AEI programme
• Maintain BUY

HK retail sales by volume grew by 8.1% YoY in Nov 2012, representing a rebound from the 3.6% YoY growth in Oct 2012. For 11M12, retail sales by volume grew by a solid 7.1% YoY. Tourist arrivals were a contributing factor, growing by 18.7% YoY in Nov (vs. +15.8% YoY for 10M12).

Golden Agri: Muted CPO price recovery to drag performance - downgrade to Underweight (JPM)


Golden Agri
Price: S$0.64
Price Target: S$0.50
Muted CPO price recovery to drag performance -downgrade to Underweight

We lowered our sector CPO price forecast to M$2,600/MT. Against a muted CPO price recovery and still high consensus forecast, we downgrade Golden
Agri to UW. We expect significant earnings miss and potential share price underperformance ahead.

•Significant 4Q12 earnings miss likely: Average CPO price was down 23% Q/Q in 4Q12. However, consensus estimate is forecasting a 62% Q/Q core profit recovery for 4Q12 to US$139 million. We believe this is unrealistic. We are forecasting a 20% Q/Q decline to US$69 million in core profit for 4Q12. Our FY13E/FY14E earnings are also 30%/27% below consensus. We see significant downside risk to consensus earnings as Street downgrades CPO price forecast.

Mapletree Logistics Trust: Consistent performer (OCBC)

Mapletree Logistics Trust:
Fair value    S$1.25
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.07
versus: Current price  S$1.16

Consistent performer
• Stable quarter within view
• Leasing demand remains healthy
• Still clocking positive rental reversions

Mapletree Logistics Trust (MLT) reported its 3QFY13 scorecard last evening. NPI grew by 9.7% YoY to S$67.5m, while DPU recorded a marginal increase of ~1% to 1.72 S cents. The slower pace of growth was due to a S$4.7m distribution to perpetual securities holders and a S$0.7m divestment gains in 3QFY12. Excluding the gains, DPU would have improved by ~3%.

Cambridge Industrial Trust : Rounding up a good year (CIMB)


Cambridge Industrial Trust
Current S$0.69
Target S$0.76
Rounding up a good year

 FY12 was an active year and CIT rounded it up by outperforming the benchmark, which is comprised of the eight largest REITs, by 2.8% in 2H12.Key highlights were 11% positive reversion, nine acquisitions and four development works, paving the way to a good FY13.

4Q12 and FY12 DPU were in line with our and consensus estimates at 26% and 99% of our full-year, respectively. We introduce FY15 numbers and tweak DPUs for new acquisitions and higher share base. Maintain Outperform and DDM-based target price (7.7% discount rate). Rental reversions and more pipeline AEIs are catalysts.

Nam Cheong: Looking Forward To An Exciting 2014 Shipbuilding Programme (UOBKH)

Nam Cheong
Share Price S$0.265
Target Price S$0.340
Looking Forward To An Exciting 2014 Shipbuilding Programme

We believe Nam Cheong may announce a larger-than-previously-forecasted 2014 shipbuilding programme. As a result, we raise our 2014 forecast for vessel completions to US$450m, from our prior conservative forecast of US$340m. We also expect 4Q12 net profit to be in line with expectations at RM46.3m, +75% yoy and +47% qoq. Maintain BUY with a higher target price of S$0.34 (previously S$0.30).

Cordlife : Stable recurring income (DBSV)

Cordlife Group Ltd
NOT RATED S$0.57
Price Target : 12-Month S$ 0.65
Stable recurring income

•Larger of only two private cord blood banks in Singapore; among the top 3 in Hong Kong
•Increasing penetration rate, awareness of cord blood banking and pro-family initiatives to drive growth
• Stable recurring income; potential acquisitions in Indonesia, India and Philippines
• Fair value of S$0.65 offers 12% potential upside

Market leader in cord blood banking. Cordlife provides cord blood banking services in Singapore and Hong Kong. Its services include the collection, processing, testing, cryopreservation and storage of umbilical cord blood at birth. It also provides umbilical cord tissue banking services in Hong Kong.

歐豬半癱未癒 股市震盪非危機

歐豬半癱未癒 股市震盪非危機
欄名:社評

港股恒指昨急跌536點,表面上是市場憂歐債危機再爆,惟歐債雖已捱過生關死劫,剛剛離開深切治療部,歐洲政經卻仍如半身不遂的中風病人,中短期難現復原曙光,炒家遂藉炒作歐債病情反覆,趁高位回吐獲利。

歐債脫危險期 政經困局難解

歐洲股市前晚急瀉,觸發美國與亞太股市骨牌下跌,此因歐豬大國政局繃緊,如西班牙總理拉霍伊被指貪污,有下台危機;醜聞纏身的意大利前總理貝盧斯科尼近期民望竟看漲,有機會在本月底的大選重奪政權。政治風險升溫令兩國債息抽升,喚起市場對歐債危機的憂慮。

Malaysia 2013 Outlook – Clients’ Feedback (UOBKH)


Malaysia
2013 Outlook – Clients’ Feedback

Institutional clients in Singapore and Malaysia are generally in sync with our cautious market outlook, with many regional funds being very UNDERWEIGHT on Malaysia ahead of an imminent general election. Despite this, we highlight our strategy of being ahead of the curve by being OVERWEIGHT on construction stocks. With teeming interest in the Iskandar theme, we also highlight various investment proxies.

What’s New
• Our view – Further softness expected but downside limited. We presented our market view for 2013, the downside and high trading volatility in 1H13 ahead of the general election (GE), followed by a consolidation period post-GE, and an external liquidity-led recovery in 2H13. Hence, we expect the market to slide as we head towards the Chinese New Year although we reckon the market’s downside will be limited to 1SD below the historical average PE multiple, which implies the FBMKLCI will hit a trough at around the 1,530 level.

Singapore Residential Property: A return to normalcy (Daiwa)

Singapore Residential Property
A return to normalcy
• Population white paper douses water on immigration driver
• We expect private home sales returning to 10,000 units a year or less from 2017
• The paper is consistent with our Negative sector rating

■ What's new
The Singapore Government released its population white paper: A sustainable population for a dynamic Singapore, on 29 January.

■ What's the impact
From the resident population (Singaporeans and permanent residents [PRs]) of 3.82m and total population of 5.31m as at mid-2012, the government projects 4.0-4.1m residents and a total population of 5.8-6.0m by 2020, and 4.2-4.4m residents and a total population of 6.5-6.9m by 2030.

曾淵滄專欄06.02.13:跌市毋須夾硬解釋


曾淵滄專欄:跌市毋須夾硬解釋 - 曾淵滄

股市突然插水,實際上急跌是從前日開始的,前日恒指最高升至23944點,只剩56點就達24000點,但前日收市時已由高位急跌259點,昨日是繼承前日的跌勢再跌多536點,換言之,由前日高位來計算,兩日跌795點,跌得的確很急。

市場中人為了解釋這個現象,就說歐債危機再度令人關注,又說政府很可能再推辣招。我們不必硬找個理由來解釋,恒指升得這麼多,升幅這麼大,調整是很自然的,只是我們無法預測調整幾時來,調整幅度有多大,市場上已經累積了眾多的獲利貨,等待認為適當的時刻止賺。大行也在準備狂殺牛證,昨日,單是恒指牛證已有60隻被殺。

Affin upgrades MAS to 'reduce'

Affin upgrades MAS to 'reduce'
2013/02/05

Affin Investment Bank upgraded Malaysian Airline System Bhd to ’reduce’ from ’sell’, saying the national carrier’s tough operating environment and its financing risk have largely been reflected in its weak share price.

“Over the last three months, Malaysian Airline’s share price has fallen by more than 30 per cent following the proposal of yet another capital raising exercise,” Affin said in a research note on Tuesday.

分析員:5.30令吉出價合理‧國際船務漲幅14年最大


分析員:5.30令吉出價合理‧國際船務漲幅14年最大
Created 02/05/2013 - 10:22
(吉隆坡4日訊)國際船務(MISC,3816,主板貿服組)獲大股東國油(Petronas)建議以每股5令吉30仙全面獻購未持有股權並私有化,分析員認為收購價合理,因船務領域短期走勢低迷,接受獻議將是退場良機。

不過,分析員也認為,基於未來獲利潛能可期,獻購價可能讓缺乏耐性者動心,卻無法獲得長期投資者的認可。

受獻購消息激勵,該股今日一度上揚至2令吉25仙全日最高點,終場以5令吉22仙掛收,上揚77仙或17.30%,寫下1998年9月以來的逾14年最大漲幅,成交量達1千零57萬4千800股萬。

友力森減債受看好‧為派息鋪路

友力森減債受看好‧為派息鋪路
Created 02/05/2013 - 18:32
(吉隆坡5日訊)半導體製造商友力森(UNISEM,5005,主板科技組)在謹慎現金管理與資本開銷中緩步前進,MIDF研究預測可轉虧為盈和更上層樓;減債行動受看好,為未來釋放更多股息予股東鋪路。

MIDF最近會晤管理層,基於管理層對財測保守,暫維持財測不變;然而,在全球經濟成長與美國消費信貸復甦與更佳消費情緒支撐下,友力申會錄得更優之淨利並不令人意外。

該行說,今年不會再有高庫存,業績料優於往年,料轉虧為盈至5千950萬令吉,去年則淨虧690萬令吉,2011年淨賺1千960萬令吉。有望每股派息2.5仙。

iProperty.com調查‧加薪追不上房價‧90%買不起大馬房產


iProperty.com調查‧加薪追不上房價‧90%買不起大馬房產
Created 02/05/2013 - 17:35
(吉隆坡11日訊)產業網站iProperty.com最新調查顯示,有接近90%的受訪者認為負擔不起大馬當前的房產售價,感慨目前的薪金升幅遠追不及房價的上漲速度。

不過,79%受訪者有意在6個月至2年期間買屋,當中,34%的購屋預算介於35萬至50萬令吉之間,高達66%的預算是在50萬令吉以下。

屋價走高
負擔不起是隱憂

iProperty.com是在公佈“2013上半年亞洲產業市場情緒調查"時透露上述;共有8千名大馬房產買者接受這項調查,年齡介於26至35歲,年收入則介於3萬至8萬令吉之間。

业绩达预期短期获唱好 怡保花园产托零售业支撑

业绩达预期短期获唱好 怡保花园产托零售业支撑
Created 02/05/2013 - 12:30
(吉隆坡4日讯)怡保花园产托(IGBReit,5227,主板产业信托股)除了2012财年业绩表现符合分析界预期之外,短期前景更获券商一致唱好,主要推动力来自现有零售资产———谷中城购物广场(Mid Valley)及The Gardens购物广场。

马银行投资银行分析员表示,除了重新估值的1亿令吉,怡保花园产托在2012财年第四季净赚4690万令吉,把全年净利推高至5330万令吉,分别占该投资银行以及其他券商全年预测的99%及103%。

符合上市展望

同时,上述业绩表现也符合该公司管理层的新上市展望。该公司于去年9月21日挂牌,无需作出按年与按季比较。

PhillipCapital Weekly Market Watch 31.01.2013 -Market Outlook for 2013


Stock in 60 Seconds: MISC



Bove's Top Bank Picks


Global Recovery Is Sustainable


China Markets Extremely Cheap at the Moment


China's PMI Numbers Indicate Recovery



CLSA: Main Risks to Japan Rally Are External


Hong: Focus on China Cyclicals in 1H 2013



State of the US Economy


Reading China's Economic Signs



Apple Stock Opportunity? Pros Disagree


Tuesday, February 5, 2013

短期依赖外资 马股新年涨潮难现


短期依赖外资 马股新年涨潮难现
Created 02/05/2013 - 07:53
(吉隆坡4日讯)大选因素影响国内投资者信心,分析员相信马股今年不会出现新年涨潮,马股近日主要买盘都来自外资,短期走势还需依赖外资带动。

分析员指出,马股近期内任何催化剂都不会来自国内投资者。

“国内零散户正在抛售离场,我们不认为这势头有变;国内投资机构则仍专注套利。”

MIDF研究分析员指出,外资上周持续买入马股,这已是外资连续第八周成为马股净买家。

Analysts mixed on Petronas offer for MISC


The Star Online > Business
Tuesday February 5, 2013
Analysts mixed on Petronas offer for MISC

By YVONNE TAN
yvonne@thestar.com.my

PETALING JAYA: Petroliam Nasional Bhd's (Petronas) buyout offer of MISC Bhd has attracted mixed views from analysts, with some urging MISC shareholders, especially the shorter-term ones, to accept the offer while others recommended holding out for a better one.

The stock surged 77 sen to RM5.22, a multi-month high upon being re-quoted yesterday, inching closer to the offer price of RM5.30, after it was suspended to make way for the offer announcement.

基金A股持倉增至84%

基金A股持倉增至84%
內地基金無懼「八八魔咒」,繼續增加A股持倉。儘管農林、機械、通訊等板塊有回吐壓力,然而金融及煤炭等權重股續受資金青睞,帶動滬綜指連漲六個交易日,刷新去年五月初以來收市新高。統計顯示,九六至一二年期間,農曆新年前五個交易日A股上漲概率高達88%,節後五個交易日上漲概率也有82%,網上調查顯示,近期A股氣勢如虹,逾55%散戶已決定今年將「持股過節」。

連漲6日 成交大增
雖然A股過去曾多次在基金股票倉位達到或接近88%時,因後續「彈藥」不足,大市掉頭向下,然而最新基金倉位監測模型測算顯示,近期基金經理對股市熱情不減,截至上周五止,內地基金整體持股倉位按周增1.3個百分點至84%,股票型基金整體持股倉位較前一周增0.7個百分點至87.4%。

地產股驚加辣倒插


地產股驚加辣倒插
金管局忽然預警本港家庭債務佔本地生產總值比率達59%,近歷史高位,更揚言或推第六輪逆周期措施,市場普遍認為是港府再度出招前奏,多隻地產股如長實(00001)、新地(00016)、恒隆地產(00101)等遇突襲,尾市「高飛曲墜」,高低位相差逾2%。惟市場普遍認為,即使再出招亦難令樓價回落,更預期年中地產股較現水平升5至10%。

板塊調整後料再漲一成
多隻地產股昨收市前顯著異動,長實曾漲1.58%,收市倒跌0.63%,新地及恒隆地產情況相若。不過,有基金經理稱,無論港府出多少招數,樓價很難下跌,除因供應不足外,過去政府寄望出招會觸發炒家沽貨,然而現時炒家幾乎絕迹,大部分持貨者有很強實力,即使政府再推新政策,亦不會急於沽貨或窒礙需求,新盤依然有承接,難以對地產股盈利有太大衝擊,未來地產股只會跟隨大市。

MARKET SENSE:股神「測市」 道指偏貴

MARKET SENSE:股神「測市」 道指偏貴

美國股市繼續尋頂,中資金融股也一如筆者所料紛紛創下五十二周高位,相信部分中資金融股今年高位仍未出現。

不過,目前市況雖然未非常瘋狂,但筆者留意到,與股市表現相關的新聞開始出現在報章的港聞版而非經濟版,少年股神4萬贏150萬神話再現等不祥徵兆,基於股市愈升風險愈大、心態應該愈保守的原則,筆者於上星期減持小部分獲利甚豐的交易組合持股,將整體現金水平提升至6.5%。

事實上,美國十年期和三十年期國庫債券孳息率已經分別由去年七月的低位1.39%和2.45%,上升至2.01%和3.22%,已經反映部分市場人士對息率走向的看法。

OSK bullish on Pantech outlook, maintains 'buy' call


OSK bullish on Pantech outlook, maintains 'buy' call

2013/02/05

KUALA LUMPUR: OSK Research Sdn Bhd is bullish on Pantech Group Holdings Bhd's outlook and has maintained its "buy" call on the company's stock at an unchanged fair value of RM1.

In a note yesterday, OSK said Pantech's financial year 2014 will be promising as its current total order book of RM298 million will keep it busy until July.

"The stainless steel division could also start contributing to the group or at least stop incurring losses, and the expansion of its UK-based Nautic Steel Holdings Ltd will contribute more significant earnings to the group," it said.

財智語陸:65元買平保夠穩陣 - 陳永陸


財智語陸:65元買平保夠穩陣 - 陳永陸

港股再創20多個月新高後出現回吐,恒指最後倒跌收場。昨日提過美股走強,港股能否借勢突破便可試水溫,而先升後急回的走勢,印證春節假期前,港股很難出現突破的看法。

不過美電回軟,反映資金仍對港股有所眷戀,同時可能會在春節後再作部署,不過假期前的保守態度仍然不變。

滙控(005)出售平保(2318)股份的交易,終獲中保監批准,理論上平保的短期不確定性因此消除。不過其股價昨日仍下跌,反映投資者似乎擔憂新股東能否如滙控般,為平保帶來策略性支持。加上滙控出售價為59元,較平保現價有一定折讓,亦令投資者憂慮滙控以如此大的差價拋售,可能與平保前景欠佳有關。

丰益国际将会继续走高吗?


丰益国际将会继续走高吗?
文: 韩巍 (译:麦美莹) 2013年02月04日 技术分析
丰益国际在2012年栽了一个筋斗。

之后它出现很长的盘整期,大约为6个月,并可能为这只股筑起一个较稳的底部。

最近,它升了超过0.06元。从每周图表看到,MACD(平滑异同移动平均数)及7天与13天移动平均线也在走高。

上周,它上破位于3.75元的重要阻力水平。上升趋势依然稳健,考虑到其底部是由长期盘整筑起,因此它很可能有更大的动力继续攀升。当其股价回跌至38.2%斐波纳契回撤线(Fibonacci retracement)时,我会考虑买入。

再窮也要升學 教育股抗跌力強

再窮也要升學 教育股抗跌力強
(吉隆坡4日訊)在股市中有太多股項供投資者選擇,在這么多領域中鮮少有人提及教育股,但作為一個發展中國家,我國在教育方面也不斷精進,教育股也可被視為是抗跌力強的防禦股。

 國內大學院校眾多,上市公司僅有精英國際(HELP,7236 ,主要板貿易)、世紀(SEG,9792,主要板貿易)、MASTERSKILL(MEGB,5166,主要板貿易)和柏斯達亮(PRESBHD,5204,主要板貿易),這些公司一般上都有派息政策,投資者不妨從中選擇心宜股項。

 根據財經雜誌《Personal Money》早前報導,當國家經濟呈現萎縮時,父母仍會撥款在子女的教育上,甚至有許多社會人士會重返校園。

Weekend Comment Feb 1: Asean consumption ideas for a bullish market


Weekend Comment Feb 1: Asean consumption ideas for a bullish market
THE S&P 500 gained 5.1% in the month of January, its biggest monthly gain since October 2011. On Jan 31, the benchmark index closed at 1,498.1 points, near its all-time closing high of 1,565.2 points. Some market observers see a pullback coming but equity markets in general are expected to rise this year.

Jeremy Hale, head of global macro strategy at Citi Research, sees a few themes driving asset markets this year. Easy money from accommodative monetary policies should be bullish for risk assets, he says. He is also encouraged that China has not announced a huge policy stimulus in an attempt to return to previous high growth rates of between 10% and 12%. “Tail risks around a China collapse are significantly reduced, and because the absence of an infrastructure-intensive boom in China is less bullish for commodities [there is] therefore less of an inflation concern for emerging market policymakers.”

In the coming week, some investment interest may centre on Asean stock ideas. That’s because this weekend the Invest Asean 2013 investment roadshow will kick off in Singapore. Organised by the Asean Exchanges grouping, in collaboration with local brokers, it is showcasing the 30 most exciting companies from each country.

Standard Chartered analyst Nirgunan Tiruchelvam suggests that investors focus their attention on the expanded minimum wage programmes in Indonesia and Thailand. The new governor of Jakarta has agreed to increase the minimum wage by 44% to US$228 ($283) a month while other Indonesian provinces are enacting wage increases ranging from 6% to 49% in 2013. The Thai government has introduced a THB 300 ($12.49) daily minimum wage, which is nearly twice the previous minimum wage in some areas. Tiruchelvam notes that this is the largest wage increase in both countries in over a decade. “The last such rise in Indonesia in 2001 was followed by household consumption growing 3.7% in 2001 and 6.3% in 2002,” he adds.

To capitalise on this wage effect, Tiruchelvam suggests focusing on companies that have higher productive exposure to the poor (PEP). Companies with a high PEP factor tend to target the poor by using strategies such as selling in small unit sizes and to the mass market. He highlights Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur, which sells a wide range of food products; and Japfa Comfeed Asia, which makes animal feed. He has increased his price targets on those two stocks by 19.5% and 19.1%, respectively, on the back of higher earnings forecasts.

Three other companies that also have a high PEP factor, he says, are Thai Vegetable Oil, which makes soybean cooking oil; locally-listed beer maker Thai Beverage; and Charoen Pokphand Indonesia, which makes animal feeds, woven plastic bags and poultry equipment. All five of these companies also have a low wage exposure factor, which means higher wage costs will not crimp their profits too much because they have relatively lower labour costs.

PROPERTY IDEAS
Following the government’s release of a new land use plan, Maybank Kim Eng Research analyst Wilson Liew has weighed in on the impact on the property sector. The plan, which aims to increase land supply to 766 sq km from the current 710 sq km will involve three new townships and some estates in the central region.

While Liew says that the concepts spelled out in the plan are unlikely to impact any one stock immediately, he does see some positives for CapitaLand, CapitaMalls Asia (CMA) and CapitaMall Trust (CMT). These three companies, he says, could benefit in the medium to long term with their strong presence in the Jurong Lake District, which will see its hinterland grow with the addition of a new town called Tengah. New growth regions, he says, will also give CMA and CMT the opportunity to expand their retail operations.




Source/Extract/Excerpts/来源/转贴/摘录: www.theedgesingapore.com
Publish date: 01/02/13

一股作气:消费者钟情 巴迪尼地位巩固


一股作气:消费者钟情 巴迪尼地位巩固
Created 02/04/2013 - 12:00
虽国外知名品牌业者不断涌现促使服装业竞争日益严峻,但似乎难动摇巴迪尼控股(Padini,7052,主板消费产品股)在本地市场地位以及消费者的钟情。

巴迪尼控股自上市以来已有强劲的业务表现记录,且营运支出占营业额比重呈下滑趋势,预计净赚幅将提高13到21个基点。

未来增长动力包括国内分店增设计划,以及与新加坡服饰零售领域一哥FJ Benjamin集团合作所带来的营收贡献。
Warren E. Buffett(沃伦•巴菲特)
Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful
别人贪婪时我恐惧, 别人恐惧时我贪婪
投资只需学好两门课: 一,是如何给企业估值,二,是如何看待股市波动
吉姆·罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)
“错过时机”胜于“搞错对象”:不会全军覆没!”
做自己熟悉的事,等到发现大好机会才投钱下去

乔治·索罗斯(George Soros)

“犯错误并没有什么好羞耻的,只有知错不改才是耻辱。”

如果操作过量,即使对市场判断正确,仍会一败涂地。

李驰(中国巴菲特)
高估期间, 卖对, 不卖也对, 买是错的。
低估期间, 买对, 不买也是对, 卖是错的。

Tan Teng Boo


There’s no such thing as defensive stocks.Every stock can be defensive depending on what price you pay for it and what value you get,
冷眼(冯时能)投资概念
“买股票就是买公司的股份,买股份就是与陌生人合股做生意”。
合股做生意,则公司股份的业绩高于一切,而股票的价值决定于盈利。
价值是本,价格是末,故公司比股市重要百倍。
曹仁超-香港股神/港股明灯
1.有智慧,不如趁势
2.止损不止盈
成功者所以成功,是因为不怕失败!失败者所以失败,是失败后不再尝试!
曾淵滄-散户明灯
每逢灾难就是机会,而是在灾难发生时贱价买股票,然后放在一边,耐性地等灾难结束
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