Saturday, November 17, 2012

證券分析:比亞迪電動汽車漸有起色


證券分析:比亞迪電動汽車漸有起色
http://paper.wenweipo.com   [2012-11-17]

海通國際
 本周二我們調研了比亞迪股份(1211),公司3季度汽車業務持續低迷,4季度銷量企穩。第3季度銷售汽車7.7萬輛,同比下降約18%。但8月速銳上市使得公司銷量企穩回升,9月和10月汽車銷量均超過4萬輛,公司預計4季度汽車總銷量達12萬輛,2012年汽車總銷量達40萬輛,同比下降10%。

 公司預計明年銷量有望同比增長超過10%,主要依靠產品結構升級從而提升銷量和平均售價,包括:(1)淘汰舊車型F3和F6;(2)新車型思銳將於明年1月上市,該車將搭載自主研發的1.5T發動機以及更先進的電子設備;(3)比亞迪全新DM II代雙模電動車「秦」將於明年2季度上市,估計除去補貼後售價約10-15萬;(4)S6 將於明年配備動力更為強勁的2.0T發動機,公司預計其月銷量將從目前的7千輛提升至1萬輛。

內銀六大風險領域排查

內銀六大風險領域排查

中銀監及內銀日益重視信貸風險,防範資產質素惡化,《21世紀經濟報道》引述銀行界人士稱,中銀監正針對內銀六大風險領域進行排查,包括風險暴露較快的行業和地區、表外業務、市場風險和操作風險,以及市場一直關注的地方融資平台貸款及房地產貸款。

事實上,中銀監今年三月向銀行發出地方政府融資平台的風險監管指導意見,規定銀行今年不得新增該類貸款規模,各地區的融資平台貸款餘額,亦不得超過地方政府可承受債務上限等。

融資平台貸款渠道受中銀監對銀行放貸限制,遂轉向債市融資,《經濟參考報》指,今年以來地方融資平台發債規模高達5,792.8億元(人民幣.下同),較去年全年已高出1,500億元。

銀基遭洗倉劉央速蝕


【本報訊】自從華藝礦業(559)成為五糧液概念股後,以經銷五糧液為主的銀基(886)股價不斷下跌,昨尾市慘遭洗倉式狂隊,跌逾10%至2.6元,連月增持的西京投資主席劉央昨披露於周三增持近300萬股,近三次增持累輸近3000萬元。

銀基昨早高開後,逐漸回軟,至尾段股價跳水,最低造2.57元,創2010年9月以來新低,最終收報2.6元,跌10.7%。全日成交金額急增,達8856.6萬元。

昨聯交所資料顯示,劉央於11月14日入市再增持銀行296.2萬股,每股平均價3.03元,持好倉由9.94%升至10.18%。

慘被華藝爭飯食
劉央今年9月,平均每股3.169元,增持10萬股;至10月,再以均價3.22元增持4500萬股,加周中的增持,以昨日收市價計,三次增持的股份已累劉央蝕近3000萬元,名符其實越撈越低。

長揸或減稅一半中資股息誘


【本報訊】鍾情中資股的食息一族,有望多收超過5%股息!中國昨日公佈,由明年1月起,如持有A股超過1年,個人股息稅率將由目前10%降到5%,持股1個月至1年的稅率維持10%,但如持股不足1個月,稅率大增為20%。現時香港投資者亦要繳付一成紅籌及國企股股息稅,相信有機會跟隨新規定,屆時長揸H股的散戶,有望少交5%股息稅,變相增加收入。記者:黃尹華

新任中共總書記習近平登基,十八大維穩行情亦告終,A股昨跌至近二千點關口。財政部收市後公佈,為抑制散戶短期炒作,鼓勵長期投資,對上市公司股息紅利實行差別化個人所得稅政策,由明年初起實施。內地打壓炒風亦可能影響港股,目前H股及紅籌股發放股息,皆跟隨內地做法,上市公司派息時,按10%所得稅率代扣代繳稅款。如香港跟隨新規定,日後短炒H股恐怕只能八折收息。相反,如果是長線投資者,持股超過一年,明年開始將多收取超過5%股息。

Economic growth subdued, outlook soft

Economic growth subdued, outlook soft
Growth forecast cut to 1.5% as weak external demand puts economy under pressure
by David Bottomley 04:45 AM Nov 17, 2012

SINGAPORE - The Government has warned that economic growth for the rest of this year will be subdued while forecasting that 2013 may not be much better after revised data showed the economy performed much worse in the third quarter than had been estimated.

Gross domestic product (GDP) contracted by 5.9 per cent in the quarter from the previous three months, a much sharper decline than the 1.5 per cent contraction that was forecast in the advance estimate last month.

The gloomy performance was driven by the decline in externally-oriented sectors such as manufacturing, which shrank 9.6 per cent on a seasonally-adjusted annualised basis compared with the previous quarter.

The main reason for that was the contraction in electronics manufacturing, according to the Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI). The normally robust construction sector contracted by 17.2 per cent due to a decline in private sector building activities.

Sunway Integrated Resort City gets a boost with new bus line


Sunway Integrated Resort City gets a boost with new bus line
By Sharen Kaur
bt@nstp.com.my
2012/11/17

BANDAR SUNWAY: The multi-billion ringgit Sunway Integrated Resort City (SIRC) here in Selangor has become increasingly attractive to investors with the on-going construction of the RM300 million elevated Bus Rapid Transit (BRT)-Sunway line.

When Sunway introduced recently 31 retail shops and 220 units of flexi suites, priced from RM7 million and RM400,000 onwards each or a combined RM400 million at Sunway Geo @ Sunway South Quay, there was overwhelming response.

According to Sunway managing director of property development division Ho Hon Sang, the shops alone recorded take-ups of over 80 per cent.

評級降至“中立” 安利上行空間有限


評級降至“中立” 安利上行空間有限

(吉隆坡16日訊)安利(AMWAY,6351,主要板貿易)銷售持續錄得單位數成長,第三季業績雖符合券商預期,惟僑豐投資研究認為,該股作價上行空間有限,故將評級由“買入”降至“中立”,但目標價維持11.45令吉。

 該股今早以11.88令吉報開,跌6仙,惟4分鐘后即出現賣壓情況,早盤最低跌至11.64令吉,滑落30仙,休市時同掛在11.64令吉,半日易手3萬3400股。

建議派息10仙

 閉市時報11.64令吉,滑30仙,成交量6萬3000股。

 根據安利日前向馬證交所報備指出,該公司改變行銷策略及謹慎管理成本奏效,截至9月30日第3季,安利首9個月淨利按年揚13%至7352萬1000令吉,建議派息10仙。

Thai Billionaire, OUE Set for Bidding War on F&N

Thai Billionaire, OUE Set for Bidding War on F&N
Fraser & Neave Ltd., a 129-year-old conglomerate, is set to become the focus of a bidding war between Thailand’s richest man and a Singapore property company.

A group led by Overseas Union Enterprise Ltd. (OUE) yesterday bid S$9.08 a share for Singapore-based F&N, topping Charoen Sirivadhanabhakdi’s S$8.88 offer. F&N shares traded as high as S$9.32 today, a sign investors still expect a higher price than the OUE offer of S$13.1 billion ($10.7 billion).

“I’d expect a better offer from Charoen,” said Justin Harper, a strategist at IG Markets in Singapore. “If OUE came in with S$9.50 a share or somewhere near S$10 a share, it might have warded Charoen out of the game. Charoen still has room to maneuver to increase his bid above OUE at the moment.”

Charoen has been seeking control of F&N since July when he agreed to buy a stake in the drinks and property company, touching off a race to buy its assets. OUE has enlisted Kirin Holdings Co. (2503), Japan’s largest drinks maker and F&N’s second- largest shareholder, in its bid. OUE would get the company’s property business and Kirin would take the food and beverage unit.

中国不良贷款问题可能比预想的严重


中国不良贷款问题可能比预想的严重
在任务清单中已罗列了一长串社会及经济问题的情况下,中国即将上任的新一代领导人不太可能有很长的“蜜月期”。他们需要解决的问题之一是中国的不良贷款问题,实际情况可能已经比数据所显示出来的还要糟糕。

这是中国东方资产管理公司(China Orient Asset Management Corp.)最近出炉的一份报告的研究结果之一,研究调查了发起、处理、买进和持有中国不良贷款的公司。该公司是10多前成立的四大资产管理公司之一,它们帮助主要银行解决堆积如山的不良贷款。

调查是在6月15日至30日之间进行的,基于的是210份完成的调查表,其中有52份来自银行,50份来自投资者,50份来自中国各地资产管理公司的办事处,58份来自律师事务所等服务提供商。

Lex专栏:新加坡电信股价

Lex专栏:新加坡电信股价
英国《金融时报》 Lex专栏 2012-11-16 (www.ftchinese.com)
对不起,线路有干扰。是说新加坡电信(Singapore Telecom)营收下降吗?是这样么?那么股息呢?

亚洲电信类股票的投资者已习惯于新加坡电信这样的行业巨头派发优厚股息,他们无需对新加坡电信自10年前收购澳大利亚Optus以来首次营收预测下降太过担忧。这一预期下滑(在截至2013年3月的一年里,从预期较小个位数的增长,下调为较小个位数的下降)与澳大利亚竞争激烈有关。该新闻标题背后并无太多戏剧因素:新加坡电信运营层面的利润不会受到影响,得益于严格的控制和重组。这有助于过去6个月内产生了18亿美元的自由现金流,预期3月以前还将产生接近上述水平一半的现金流。因此那些股息看起来是安全的。

CEO-Chatroom-Tang-Kin-Fei-Group-President-CEO-Sembcorp-Industries


New-private-home-sales-decline-in-October-URA


Shipping stocks set for stormy seas: Macquarie

Shipping stocks set for stormy seas: Macquarie
November 13, 2012, 10:52 PM
Freight rates on cargo lanes between Asia and Europe are set to disappoint, as there’s little sign shipping lines are taking steps to trim capacity, according to Australia’s Macquarie.

The grim outlook is likely to haunt Hong Kong-listed shipping stocks, which have been on a rising trend since September, but which could likely come under pressure in light of the poor fundamentals for the sector.

Macquarie said some of the stock gains appear related to recently improving freights rates, but it cautioned that these improvements appear to be on rocky waters.

The Macquarie analysts said they expect rates to ease back in the coming weeks and hover around break-even levels in 2013.

寄语创业者:柳传志与联想的创业路


寄语创业者:柳传志与联想的创业路

编者按:2012全球创业周中国站于2012年11月9日在上海国际会议中心正式开幕。联想集团董事长柳传志发表了演讲,讲述了自己的创业路,并分享了创业经验与教训。

1984年,我和另外10个同事开始创业,当时筹集到了20万元人民币。去年年底联想控股员工接近5万人,2011年营业额296亿美元。

过去中国为了保护自己的民族工业,主要是由国家投资。当时投资了长城电脑公司,他们也是我们行业的老大哥。那时外国电脑进口必须要有批文,还要报关税,只有达到200%才能进入中国,保护的结果就是电脑的价格非常昂贵,严重地影响到了各行各业信息化的过程。后来国家认识到原来电脑不是一个消费类的产品,而是一个生产设备,所以当时采取措施在两三年之内把批文取消,也把关税大幅度降低。

曾渊沧:美财政悬崖终将解决 后市仍乐观

曾渊沧:美财政悬崖终将解决 后市仍乐观

美股在美国总统选举之后,连跌两天,而且跌幅很大,道指第一天跌313点,第二天跌121点,而且,两天的走势皆是一路向下的走势。道指第一天大跌已经使得港股在昨日也同样大跌,而且跌幅比美股更大,相信这是因为港股已经累积了大幅度的升幅,是时候调整调整,获利回吐。

美国总统大选与国会选举同时举行。民主党的现任总统奥巴马胜利连任。国会的参众两院的控制权则依旧分别由民主党及共产党所控制,这是美国选民的一贯作法。一票支持民主党人的总统,另一要则支持共和党人当议员。或者相反,一要投给共和党的总统候选人,另一要则支持民主党的议员候选人。美国选民不希望总统与国会被同一个政党控制,他们喜欢看到国会对总统的牵制,彼此妥协,走中庸之道。

不过,现在摆在眼前的问题是财政赤字,庞大的财赤如何处理?民主党的奥巴马在竞选运动时高调地说要推出所谓的“巴菲特税”,向富豪征收极高的税。巴菲特即美国股神,他也是全球首富,他已立下遗嘱在死后捐出百分百的资产给慈善基金,所谓“巴菲特税”就是他建议的。他说服富豪应该取自社会,用之社会。

GLP Goes Global to Boost Growth: Chairman


HDB-resale-market-showing-signs-of-stabilising-Khaw


Great time to refinance home loans


Great time to refinance home loans

Interest rates are expected to remain low next year, given a possible further inflow of funds.

Tue, Nov 13, 2012
The Business Times

By Dennis Ng

INTEREST rates on housing loans are at their lowest levels in the last 46 years.

Recently, the SOR (swap offer rate) even fell into negative territory, something that no one might have thought possible as it basically means that if interest rates are negative by a sufficient margin, borrowers can end up paying close to zero interest rates on housing loans packages pegged to SOR.

What is the Sibor and SOR?

Buffett's Berkshire Sells Most of J&J and GE Stakes


Buffett's Berkshire Sells Most of J&J and GE Stakes
Published: Wednesday, 14 Nov 2012

Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway has eliminated almost all of its stakes in Johnson & Johnson [JNJ  69.27     -0.24  (-0.35%)   ] and General Electric [GE  20.01     -0.67  (-3.24%)   ].

According to Berkshire's 13-F filing with the SEC, the company held just over 492-thousand shares of J&J as of September 30.  That's a 95 percent reduction from the 10.3 million shares it reported holding as of June 30. The market value of the remaining holdings is just $34 million, down $682 million.

Berkshire's GE stock has been slashed to 588,900 shares. That's down 88 percent from just over five million shares three months earlier.  That stake is now worth just under $12 million, down $88.4 million.

索罗斯第三季度购入 AIG、LinkedIn 重返银行业

索罗斯第三季度购入 AIG、LinkedIn 重返银行业

亿万富翁投资人乔治•索罗斯(George Soros)麾下的Soros Fund Management LLC第三季度购入了美国国际集团(American International Group Inc. AIG -2.14% )以及职业社交网站LinkedIn Corp. LNKD -0.49% 的股份,同时还买回了今年早些时候抛售的摩根大通公司(JPMorgan Chase & Co. JPM -1.87% )和花旗集团(Citigroup Inc. C -3.15% )的股份。

索罗斯曾宣称黄金是终极资产泡沫。不过,据Soros Fund Management提交给美国证券交易委员会(Securities and Exchange Commission, 简称SEC)的季度文件显示,该公司还扩大了对贵金属的投资,将与黄金挂钩的交易所交易基金SPDR Gold Trust GLD +0.02% 的股份数量从884,400股提高至130万股,总值2.271亿美元。

对冲基金第三季度减持消费股增持银行股


对冲基金第三季度减持消费股增持银行股
监管部门周三披露的文件显示,对冲基金经理报告第三季度进一步减持了强生公司(Johnson & Johnson JNJ -0.35% )、宝洁公司(Procter & Gamble Co. PG -0.48% )等消费品公司的股票,与此同时,在之前减持或彻底抛售大型银行股之后,他们又重新买进了银行股。

亿万富翁乔治•索罗斯(George Soros)的基金公司Soros Fund Management LLC报告在第三季度新买进了保险公司美国国际集团(American International Group Inc. AIG -2.14% )和专业社交网站LinkedIn Corp. ( LNKD -0.49% )的股票,同时还买进了摩根大通(J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. JPM -1.87% )和花旗集团(Citigroup Inc. C -3.15% )的股票。索罗斯在今年早些时候将两只银行股脱手。

索罗斯买入97.9万股摩根大通股票和150万股花旗集团股票。Louis Bacon经营的对冲基金Moore Capital Management也报告新买进了摩根大通和花旗集团的股票。

RQFII扩容 利好效应可期


RQFII扩容 利好效应可期
FT中文网投资与财富管理编辑 冯涛 2012-11-14 (www.ftchinese.com)
为了加快引入长期投资者入市,日前,经国务院批准,中国证监会、中国人民银行及国家外汇管理局决定:增加2000亿人民币合格境外机构投资者(简称RQFII)投资额度,试点总额度达2700亿。

RQFII又称“小QFII”,指获准从境外直接利用人民币投资境内资本市场的机构。一直以来,作为我国资本账户开放的窗口之一,QFII在额度内将外币兑换成人民币后再做投资,而RQFII可以直接利用境外人民币资金投资。

今年以来,境外投资者对A股市场表现出了浓厚兴趣。据统计,今年证监会已批准57家境外机构QFII资格。8月以来监管部门共新批了19家QFII资格,其中8家为养老金及政府投资背景的长期投资机构。近3个月QFII汇入资金新增近34亿美元。同时,RQFII也受到热捧,7月以来已有超过170亿元境外资金通过RQFII投资A股市场。

胡立阳:QFII额度放宽是救市良方


胡立阳:QFII额度放宽是救市良方
腾讯财经[微博] 2012-11-06

胡立阳:QFII额度放宽是救市良方
亚洲股市教父胡立阳(微博)近日在腾讯微博表示,在目前正积极推动的许多激励股市的措施中,我认为QFII额度的大幅放宽,是最能快速见效的良方,非常值得期待。 资金是活络股市的生命之泉,而且最好是能源源不绝的来自四面八方。其次,从过去欧美股市在发展过程中得到验证,若有来自世界各地的外资机构参与投资,对于国际产经或个股消息面的利好、利空将有不同的解读与反应,能产生均衡效应,减少股市暴涨、暴跌,甚至长期陷入低迷的情况,也有助于发挥稳定股市的功能。



Genting Singapore: 3Q12: “Falling Skies” Scenario Explored (UOBKH)

Genting Singapore
Share Price S$1.24
Target Price S$1.10
3Q12: “Falling Skies” Scenario Explored

3Q12 results confirmed a disappointing trend in gaming volumes and continued depressed margins. We downgrade our 2012-14 earnings forecasts as volumes and margins may not significantly recover through 2013. Without clear catalysts, valuations could ease towards the typical valuations accorded to the Genting Group. Hence, we explore a “Falling Skies” valuation scenario. Downgrade to SELL. Target: S$1.10.

Results
• The weakest set of earnings since Resorts World Sentosa’s (RWS) opening. Genting Singapore (GENS) reported an adjusted 3Q12 EBITDA of S$303m (-2.5% qoq), bringing its 9M12 adjusted EBITDA to S$992.2m, and suggesting its full-year forecasts would fall well short of our (S$1.4b) forecast. Reason: a) languishing volumes with the rolling chip volume (RCV) and mass market drop easing 3% qoq, and b) win rate normalising at 2.8% (2Q12: 3.1%).

Faber: Middle East Will Blow Up and Affect Markets


Faber: SE Asia Could Grow at 6-7% For Next Decade


投資指標琳瑯滿目,連股神巴菲特都欽佩的神奇指標究竟是什麼?

2012-1109-57金錢爆(讓你媽媽牛一下 台股一起恰恰)4-3

China-bank-lending-slows-further-in-October


Scoot-cancels-20-flights-from-Singapore-to-Shenyang-and-Qingdao


Wilmar International: 3Q12: Good Quarter But Future Still Volatile (UOBKH)


Wilmar International
Share Price S$3.17
Target Price S$3.30
3Q12: Good Quarter But Future Still Volatile

3Q12: Good Quarter But Future Still Volatile
Wilmar reported a net profit of US$406m. Results came in better than expected thanks to its China operations which delivered a better profit margin from crushing and consumer pack PBT margins. 4Q12 performance is likely to be comparable to 3Q12’s as sales volume remains strong. The challenge would be maintaining 3Q12’s good PBT margin. Maintain SELL. Target price: S$3.30.

Results
• Wilmar International reported net profit of US$405.8m (+23.5% yoy, 4x qoq). Excluding non-operating items, net profit was US$388m in 3Q12 (-14% yoy, +125% qoq). Results were better than expected, driven mainly by its China operations which performed better than expected. Wilmar’s palm-related business performed within expectation.

Unisem (HOLD, TP: RM1.02) - Embracing Unisem 2.0


Unisem (HOLD, TP: RM1.02) -
Price Target : 1.01
Last Price : 0.98
Embracing Unisem 2.0

Highlights
End-to-end restructuring initiatives under the Unisem 2.0 business model have proven to be effective, helping it to rationalize product portfolio and customers purely based on profitability. This has been translated into EBITDA margin improvement in 3Q12 at 19.1% equivalent to +5.1% ppt qoq despite flat qoq sales growth.

Global anemic economic conditions continue to overshadow industry outlook and operating environment. Clients’ long term forecasts are accurate and dependable up to 1 month only.

CSC Steel Holdings - Earnings Down, But Still on Firm Footing

CSC Steel Holdings -
Price Target : 1.20
Last Price : 1.22
Earnings Down, But Still on Firm Footing


CSC Steel's RM22.4m net profit for 9MFY12 was below our and consensus estimates. As the operating environment remains challenging while the Government's moves to restructure the industry have yet to materialise, we do not see a turnaround in the immediate term. Due to the company's strong balance sheet and net cash of RM250m, we think CSC Steel deserves a NEUTRAL recommendation despite the persistent earnings weakness. As we roll over our valuation to FY13f, we arrive at a new FV of RM1.20.
Still murky. CSC Steel's 3QFY12 results were weaker q-o-q and y-o-y (-42.4% and -29.2% respectively). Despite sales coming in at levels similar to those in the second quarter, the Group's profit margin shrank mainly because raw material costs rose q-o-q. On top of the inconsistent raw material supply, management said export sales also declined amid stiff competition mainly from China, Korea and Japan. These, it added, made operating conditions even more daunting.

财华专题:李泽楷回归保险业的启示


Yangzijiang Shipbuilding : 3Q12: Earnings Decline 14% yoy, As Expected (UOBKH)

Yangzijiang Shipbuilding Holdings
Share Price S$0.945
Target Price S$1.52
3Q12: Earnings Decline 14% yoy, As Expected

3Q12 results are in line with our expectations. Revenue declined slightly by 1% while bottom-line dropped 14% yoy, dragged by shipbuilding margin contraction. However, we expect the newbuild order cycle to have bottomed out, and P/B-based valuation remains at post-Lehman levels. Maintain BUY with a target price of S$1.52.

Results
 Yangzijiang Shipbuilding’s (YZJ) 3Q12 results came without surprise. Revenue was Rmb3,612m (-1% yoy) of which shipbuilding revenue was Rmb3,307m (-4% yoy) and investment revenue generated from held-to-maturity investments, cash and Runyuan micro financing was Rmb305m (+51% yoy). Finance cost increased 305% yoy to Rmb115.5m as a result of higher borrowings in 3Q12. 3Q12 net income was Rmb877m (-14% yoy), representing 3Q12 EPS of Rmb0.23.

颜子伟:奥巴马再入主白宫后,市场出现更大的波动

奥巴马再入主白宫后,市场出现更大的波动
文: 颜子伟 (译:麦美莹) 2012年11月09日 展望
共和党的支持者还未有把眼泪擦干,我们就得面对一浪接一浪的波涛起伏。股市投资者都好像是铁汉子,无论是牛市、熊市、狂热、暴跌或无论出现任何状况,我们的情感和理智似乎都足以让我们应付得来。

当雷曼兄弟倒台时,我们勇敢面对由美国传开来的冲击;我们也没有因为希腊的悲剧而倒下;而我们猜测,美国财政悬崖(fiscal cliff)只不过是一个令我们远离股市再不回头的阴谋。

可是,我们就好像壁虎,尾断了,还是会生龙活虎地再次出现,在股市中继续打拼,尽管美国经济可能会掉进悬崖或万丈深渊。
究竟财政悬崖是什么一回事?为什么它对投资者情绪会产生迅速巨变?

财经追击 Episode 30 - 04.11.2012:CPF Top-Up Schemes


Courts Asia Moves Its Chess Pieces Strategically

09 NOVEMBER 2012
Courts Asia Moves Its Chess Pieces Strategically
By Louis Lee

In a mall filled country like Singapore; it is difficult to say you’ve not seen the prominent logo of Courts Asia (Courts) before, because simply put, it appears to be in most malls we have in Singapore. The Electrical and Furniture retail giant commands the largest market share in Singapore and the second largest in Malaysia, with an estimated total store count of 70 stores, in which 13 of them are in Singapore.

Listed barely a month ago, Courts saw overwhelming demand for its initial public offering, which was 24.4 times subscribed. In an exclusive interview with Shares Investment, Courts’ chief executive officer, Terry O’Connor shared what he has in store for Courts in the foreseeable future.

The Smarter Way Of Renting
In line with its efforts to cater its products to more consumers in Singapore, Courts offers its own range of credit services and instalment plans. Interestingly, it also has a plan that is especially suitable for the many foreign workers that are here in Singapore for a contracted period of say one or two years.

In Defence of iCapitalBiz



ADB-expects-most-Asian-economies-to-rebound-in-2013


最低薪制料难豁免 顶级手套额外成本拉低净利15%


(吉隆坡16日讯)分析员相信,顶级手套(TOPGLOV,7113,主板工业股)將无法豁免执行最低薪金制度。同时,一旦该措施执行,在额外的劳动成本下,该集团2013財政年净利料削减高达15%。

儘管如此,该股週五表现亮眼,成功登上十大上升股第6位。该股以5.58令吉开盘后,一度衝上全日最高的5.62令吉水平,最后收窄涨幅,並以5.60令吉掛收,全日上升15仙或2.75%。

顶级手套正寻求展延预定在2013年1月1日执行的大马最低薪金制度。

根据胶手套领域的预测,该制度將使到每名劳工成本增加500令吉。至於顶级手套,则需每年支付额外3900万令吉给其6500名外劳。

该集团提出的上诉仍未获得回应,但是管理层將採取多项计划重新设计其製造工厂,包括纳入更多自动化系统(机器人手臂以进行自动剥除、堆叠和计算)。这料將减少25%的外劳人数,以及將每间工厂的外劳人数从400人,减至300人。

IMF拒再出錢‧歐盟須善後希臘爛攤子


IMF拒再出錢‧歐盟須善後希臘爛攤子
Created 11/16/2012 - 19:06

(比利時‧布魯塞爾16日訊)國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)表示,希臘的爛攤子,歐盟自己計劃的3年延長至4年,此外還自願調降該國的貸款利率,能做、可以幫忙的該組織已竭盡全力,剩餘的就看歐盟如何善後了。

官方估計,希臘明年國債對國內生產總值(GDP)占比將由今年的176%膨脹至189%,不過,IMF堅持希臘必須在2020年將債務佔比降至120%。

在目前龐大的債務,以及經濟將持續衰退的假設前提下,IMF自知,希臘絕對無法靠一己之力達成目標,唯有債務減記一途才能協助希臘自力更生,重回經濟成長的軌道。

民丹島業務看俏‧龍馬長期價值浮現

民丹島業務看俏‧龍馬長期價值浮現
Created 11/16/2012 - 19:05

(吉隆坡16日訊)龍馬(LANDMRK,1643,主板旅店組)聚焦新加坡岸外的民丹島發展酒店與旅遊相關業務,正經歷由醜小鴨蛻變白天鵝華麗轉身期,有望浮現長期投資價值。

龍馬與Skywave and Decennia簽約開拓海上飛機營運和發展兩間酒店和Treasure灣商業中心;大藍圖已定案,首期計劃下其琉璃海上酒店將於明年杪開幕。同時也將推展海上度假村銷售計劃,以融資酒店的建設。

民丹度假村公司子公司Gallant Venture公司,投資1億新元(約2億5千萬令吉)在距離Treasury灣商業中心25分鐘航程的建2千600公尺跑道的新機場設施,將在2015年啟用,可讓窄體飛機如波音737和空巴A320飛行。

雲頂(GENTING,3182,主板貿服組)2006年8月至2007年12月之間,以高於股價的平均每股2令吉零5仙,收購龍馬30.3%股權,崛起成為其中大股東。

摩指洗牌‧馬股5進2出


摩指洗牌‧馬股5進2出
Created 11/16/2012 - 17:44

(吉隆坡16日訊)摩根士丹利(MSCI)宣佈調整各大指數的成份股,涉及股項今日在馬股走勢疲弱下,股價表現起落參半,當中又以實達集團(SPSETIA,8664,主板產業組)跌得最重。

馬股共有5個股項列入摩根士丹利全球小資本(亞太區)指數,惟另有2個股項則從該指數除名;馬股也另有2個股項從摩根士丹利全球標准指數中除名。

摩根士丹利是在週三(14日)宣佈新指數成份股名單,並在本月30日收市後正式生效。

實達和成功跌勢重

從摩根士丹利全球標准指數(亞太區)除名的2個股項,分別為實達集團和成功集團(BJCORP,3395,主板貿服組),其中實達集團全天挫跌16仙,至3令吉40仙,最低跌至3令吉34仙的逾一年新低,惟成交量有270萬8千600股。

F&N holders will need convincing on OUE bid: IG

F&N’s shareholders will take a lot of convincing that OUE’s $9.08/share bid isn’t selling them short, says Justin Harper, market strategist at IG Markets Singapore, in a note; “while this betters the $8.88 deal from the Thais it is hardly a compelling offer.”

He notes the total $13.1 billion price tag is still on the low side of the $12 billion-$16 billion valuation from F&N. “With the latest offer coming in at just 20 cents a share higher than the Thais, it leaves the battle nicely poised for Thai tycoon Charoen to come back with an improved offer that beats OUE and puts the game out of reach once and for all. The phone line to his financial backers could be busy for most of the day.”

F&N is up 2.2% at $9.33; OUE is up 4.3% at $2.65.

SapuraKencana Barreling Along



Demystifying Gas Malaysia



Zuckerberg Not Planning to Sell FB Shares


Is Facebook Pop a Buy Sign?


Apple, the Next Big Blue Chip?


施俊威: 料上證守穏2000點


港经要闻:尚福林:内银资产风险可控


财华专题:东亚银行股权争夺战再起波澜


新闻:王传福料比亚迪第四季电动车业务获利


国内体育品牌遭遇寒冬 李宁匹克干家门店倒闭


《财经夜行线》 渣打银行:年底前人民币升幅有限明年升2%

《财经夜行线》 渣打银行:年底前人民币升幅有限明年升2%
http://www.sina.com.cn 2012年11月14日 宁夏卫视《财经夜行线》

Growth Opportunities in Shipping


China Leadership Transition 'Significant' for Investors


Bullish on China's Economy


Daryl Guppy: Weak Earnings and Debt Crisis to Muddy Market Waters


US Presidency: Check. Next: the Fiscal Cliff



Should Investors Buy Into Apple's Bear Market?


Is Lockup Facebook's Fiscal Cliff?


Friday, November 16, 2012

Lagarde-on-EU-US-Asia


All signs point to stability in plantation sector


All signs point to stability in plantation sector
Business & Markets 2012
Written by theedgemalaysia.com  
Friday, 16 November 2012 09:03

PLANTATION [] sector
Maintain overweight: The country’s palm oil inventory rose marginally in October as exports remained robust. Local consumption picked up and production entered a seasonal downcycle.

While inventory may peak only this month or in December, signs of inventory flattening should trigger a recovery in the palm oil price. We continue to believe a structural price upcycle will occur next year, albeit from a lower base. This will be propelled by a deceleration in Indonesia’s production, coupled with sustained global consumption growth.

Malaysia’s production is entering a seasonal downcycle after peaking at two million tonnes in September. The inventory downcycle should commence soon with the production downcycle having begun. We note that since 2001, the decline in inventory averaged 436,700 tonnes from peak to trough, which will put inventory at 2.1 million tonnes by mid-2013. In a low-price environment like the current one, the inventory decline could be even faster.

Green Packet assessing options for P1

Green Packet assessing options for P1
Business & Markets 2012
Written by Insider Asia  
Friday, 16 November 2012 09:04

GREEN PACKET BHD []’s share price got a shot in the arm last month, spiking as high as 70 sen, after falling to a low of 40 sen, but not for the reasons we expected. The primary driver behind the recent price surge is news reports speculating on possible M&A for its broadband outfit P1, rather than a turnaround in the underlying business. Its shares have since pared back gains to the current 58 sen.

Earlier in the year, the company sounded an upbeat note after hitting a key milestone — a positive operating profit (Ebitda) in December 2011. Although it remained in the red for the fourth quarter of financial year 2011 (4QFY11), with a net loss of RM29.9 million, and the whole of 2011 with losses totalling RM88.5 million, Green Packet believes it is on the cusp of a turnaround. Indeed, the company was hopeful of turning a small net profit in 2013, for the first time since falling into the red in 2008.

Genting S’pore shares hit 2-year low


Genting S’pore shares hit 2-year low
Business & Markets 2012
Written by Janice Melissa Thean of theedgemalaysia.com  
Friday, 16 November 2012 09:14

KUALA LUMPUR: Hit by lower gaming volume and weak quarterly results, Genting Singapore plc stocks plunged to a two-year low of S$1.20 (RM3) on Wednesday before closing at S$1.21.

Having recorded its high of S$2.35 two years ago on Nov 9, 2010, the stock has now fallen back to the level when it first opened Resorts World Sentosa in February 2010, displaying a reversal in fortune unlike its Macau casino peers whose stock remains at high levels.

Genting Singapore’s net profit for the third quarter (3Q) contracted 16% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q), or 34% year-on-year (y-o-y), to S$138.4 million, prompting the selldown. Revenue slipped 5% q-o-q or 16% y-o-y to S$670.2 million as a result of a dip in gaming business on lower volume.

KNM continues to face challenges despite Peterborough project on track

KNM continues to face challenges despite Peterborough project on track
Business & Markets 2012
Written by Mohd Kamarul Azhar of theedgemalaysia.com  
Friday, 16 November 2012 13:18

PETALING JAYA (Nov 16): KNM GROUP BHD [] continues to face challenges, despite the on-track implementation of its RM2.3 billion Peterborough renewable energy plant.

KNM has completed the purchase of a 55-acre land in Peterborough, United Kingdom, which is slated to be the site for its renewable energy plant for £25 million (RM124 million).

The group is also said to be finalising a financial plan with Exim Bank to fund 80% of the project's investment.

According to AmResearch, despite all the progress relating to KNM's Peterborough project, the research house still views the group's earnings prospect as challenging, given the current global environment and the long-term nature of Petronas's Refinery and Petrochemical Integrated Development (RAPID) project.

Salcon China deal terminated


Salcon China deal terminated
In The Edge Financial Daily Today 2012
Written by theedgemalaysia.com  
Friday, 16 November 2012 10:14

Salcon Bhd
(Nov 14, RM0.47)
Maintain add with lower target price of 55 sen: Salcon announced that its 30-year transfer-operate-transfer (TOT) waste water treatment concession dated March 21, 2011 between the company and China authorities has been terminated. Salcon and Changzhou City Tian Ning District Diao Zhuang Street Office mutually ended the agreement on Monday.

Salcon also signed an asset transfer agreement with Changzhou Southeast Industrial Wastewater Treatment Plan to transfer the assets under the project to Changzhou Southeast.

Singapore Cuts 2012 Growth Outlook, Sees Subdued 2013


Singapore Cuts 2012 Growth Outlook, Sees Subdued 2013
Published: Thursday, 15 Nov 2012

Singapore cut its growth forecast for this year to around 1.5 percent and warned of a subdued 2013 on Friday as updated third-quarter data and October export numbers showed weakness in electronics manufacturing and financial services.

The trade-dependent economy is expected to grow 1-3 percent next year, with risks on the horizon from the U.S. fiscal cutback and the eurozone crisis, the Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) said in a statement.

"Growth could come in slightly below 1.5 percent, should weakness in externally oriented sectors continue into the final quarter of 2012," Ow Foong Pheng, permanent secretary at MTI, said at a press conference.

OUE-Led Group, Thais Battle for Control of Singapore's F&N

A consortium led by Overseas Union Enterprise launched a S$13.1 billion ($10.7 billion) bid for Fraser and Neave (F&N), trumping a takeover offer from Thailand's third-richest man for the Singapore conglomerate.

The consortium's counter bid sets the stage for a showdown between it and the Thais as it seeks to unlock value in the Singapore conglomerate, which owns a property portfolio worth more than S$8 billion, as well as a range of other businesses including popular soft drinks in Singapore and Malaysia.

The consortium is offering S$9.08 per share for F&N [FRNM.SI  9.31     0.18  (+1.97%)   ], OUE [OVES.SI  2.64     0.10  (+3.94%)   ] said in a statement on Thursday, beating the Thai offer of S$8.88 a share.

The new offer, made at a discount to F&N's last traded price of S$9.13, values the company in the middle of the S$11.9 billion-16.1 billion range estimated by F&N's independent financial adviser, JP Morgan.

麦格理看淡内地航运股 料明年运费仍徘徊于盈亏平衡点

麦格理看淡内地航运股 料明年运费仍徘徊于盈亏平衡点
2012年 11月 13日 星期二

路透香港11月13日电---投行麦格理发布报告称,中国航运股近期的升势缺乏市场基本因素的支持,尽管部份航运公司已采取措施以恢复盈利能力和闲置船只,但市场运力过剩的情况依然,且料明年的运费仍会持续徘徊於盈亏平衡点.

该行认为,目前航运板块的估值偏贵,相信明年对航运公司来说仍将是艰难的一年,故此对货柜及乾散货运输板块保持负面看法,建议沽售中国远洋(1919.HK: 行情)(601919.SS: 行情)H股和中海集运(2866.HK: 行情)(601866.SS: 行情).

国内航运个股在9-10月中旬间出现过一次整体上涨,中国远洋A股累计最大涨幅近23%,中海集运A股亦最大上涨近30%.

投資名宿愛科技股


投資名宿愛科技股
對沖基金過去一季狂掃科技股,股價跌到低殘的全球最大社交網站facebook(fb)最受大戶寵愛,老虎基金、先鋒(Vanguard)等多隻基金齊齊增持;股神巴菲特依然對fb不為所動,但其投資旗艦巴郡增持國際商業機器(IBM);國際投資者索羅斯則買入Google、專業人士社交網站LinkedIn等。

美國證交會(SEC)監管文件顯示,老虎基金上季增持fb五倍,或相當於1.9億美元,先鋒增持45%,低吸fb的基金還有Jennison Associates、Clearbridge Advisors、Capital Research Global Investors、Viking Global Investors等。

雅虎Groupon有人吼
fb周三進行上市後最大規模的股份解禁,但由於fb員工並未大舉沽貨,沽空炒家遂紛紛平倉,刺激股價收市升12.6%,收報22.36美元,創上市以來第二大單日升幅,昨日美國早段跌3.18%,報21.65美元。

MTI expects Singapore economy to grow by around 1.5% in 2012


MTI expects Singapore economy to grow by around 1.5% in 2012

The Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) announced today that it expects the Singapore economy to grow by around 1.5% in 2012 and by 1.0 to 3.0% in 2013.

Preliminary estimates show that the Singapore economy grew by 0.3% on a year-on-year basis in the third quarter of 2012, following the 2.5% increase in the preceding quarter. On a quarter-on-quarter seasonally-adjusted annualised basis, the economy contracted by 5.9%, after growing by 0.5% in the previous quarter.

The pullback in quarter-on-quarter growth momentum was largely due to the decline in externally-oriented sectors such as manufacturing and wholesale trade. On a quarter-on-quarter seasonally-adjusted annualised basis, the manufacturing sector contracted by 9.6%, following flat growth in the preceding quarter. This was largely due to contraction in the electronics manufacturing cluster. On a year-on-year basis, the manufacturing sector declined by 0.8%, compared to the 4.6% expansion in the previous quarter.

Apple Stock Hit by Panic Selling: 'Someone Yelled Fire'

Apple Stock Hit by Panic Selling: 'Someone Yelled Fire'
Published: Thursday, 15 Nov 2012

Forget the "fiscal cliff." The real panic on Wall Street is over Apple's stock.

Nearly every mutual and hedge fund has piled into Apple [AAPL  525.62     -11.26  (-2.1%)   ] during its spectacular rise over the past few years. Now, these same funds are scrambling for the exits as the stock goes through an equally spectacular decline.

Apple plunged to a six-month low Thursday as funds rushed to take profits on the stock before it’s too late. Shares are now off 25 percent since late September—shortly after the iPhone 5 launch and a month before the iPad Mini introduction.

股博士隨筆:聯想集團宜炒上落


股博士隨筆:聯想集團宜炒上落
聯想集團(00992)上周公布截至九月底止的中期盈利增長20%,公司季季業績超越市場預期已不是新聞,但通常均是業績過後先升後跌,惟今次卻反覆上升,聯想成為個人電腦(PC)市場一哥已是意料中事,同時上季全球PC出貨量亦首次下跌,市場着眼點反而是集團智能手機暢銷及微軟新平板電腦Surface反應未如理想。

PC市場受平板電腦侵食已成趨勢,上季更因用家等待Window 8推出而進一步下降,這亦是聯想多季以來績佳但股價停滯不前的原因。市場並關注Surface推出對筆記本電腦構成多大威脅,因為兩者均是行視窗系統,但Surface似是雷聲大、雨點小,亦不排除買家仍抱觀望態度。

墮崖不墮崖 股市都要跌


墮崖不墮崖 股市都要跌
美國逐步逼近「財政懸崖」,市場非常擔心,氣氛之差令美股愈跌愈深,歐股也不振,港股跟着插水。究竟能不能避免墮崖,爭拗點其實只有一個,就是應否向高收入富裕階層加稅。總統奧巴馬講到明一定要加,可是由共和黨控制的國會眾議院則堅決拒加。說來諷刺,從經濟及財政角度看,向有錢人加稅是最無足輕重的,卻變成影響全局的磨心,十足因為一粒老鼠屎搞壞一煲粥。

奧巴馬在成功當選連任後首次召開的記者會上,明確表示必定要結束布殊政府年代給予美國有錢人的稅務優惠,把稅率提升回百分之三十五,他更說這是選民「授權」,言下之意是無彎轉。不過,控制着國會眾議院的共和黨一於少理,堅持有錢人是美國的經濟引擎,絕不接受向他們加稅,其他開源節流方法反而有得傾。歸根究柢是意識形態作怪,多過經濟及財政因素。

MIDAS: 3Q ’12 bottom-line swung into its first ever quarterly loss (Limtan)


MIDAS
S$0.375-MIDS.SI
 As warned by management, 3Q ’12 bottom-line swung into its first ever quarterly loss of Rmb6.1mln against profit of Rmb27mln a year ago and Rmb1.6mln a quarter ago.

 Looking ahead, while management remains cautiously optimistic about the medium to longer term outlook due to pick up in railway spending by the government, the near term business environment continues to remain challenging due to delay in payment by the railway department in China as well as uncertainty regarding the project recognition by their associate company.

Amtek Engineering: Can't fight the macro (DBSV)


Amtek Engineering
FULLY VALUED S$0.55
(Downgrade from Hold)
Price Target : 12-Month S$ 0.46 (Prev S$ 0.66)
Can't fight the macro

• 3Q12 below as sales and margins fell short
• Broad-based weakness to persist near term, DPS likely to decline along with lower profits
• FY13/14F cut by 30%, Downgrade to Fully Valued, TP cut to S$0.46

Net profit of US$6m (-33% y-o-y) was 38% below our US$9m estimate. Revenue declined 11% y-o-y to US$162m as the weakening macro environment dragged down all SBUs particularly HDD (-18%) and consumer electronics (-12%). Imaging/Printing also fell 17% due to push back in deliveries by some Japanese customers due to Sino-Japanese tensions over Diaoyu Islands. Gross margin held up at 16-17% but negative operating leverage as a result of lower sales caused operating margins to shrink by 2ppts y-o-y. Despite Sep being a seasonally stronger quarter, sales and profit declined 6% and 31% respectively.

CSC Steel - 9MFY12/12 Net Profit Plunged 29% YoY


CSC Steel -
Price Target : 1.66
Last Price : 1.22
9MFY12/12 Net Profit Plunged 29% YoY

Fair Value : RM1.66 |  Recom : Trading Buy (Maintained)

Within expectations. 9MFY12/12 net profit came at 80% of our full-year forecasts and 54% of full-year market consensus. However, we consider the results within our expectations as we expect a subdued 4Q ahead largely due to weakening manufacturing activities, softening car sales (the local automotive and manufacturing sectors are key customers of CSC’s flat products) as well as slowing export sales.

YoY. 9MFY12/12 net profit plunged 29% largely due to lower sales volumes and lower selling prices coupled with higher costs of production.

Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust: 3Q12 results above expectations (OCBC)

Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust:
Fair value    S$0.52
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.03
versus: Current price  S$0.48

3Q12 results above expectations
• Operating company
• Above expectations performance
• Raise FV to S$0.52

With effect from 1 May 2012, LMIRT engaged a third party operating company to co-manage its individual retail malls. The operating company is responsible for all costs directly related to the maintenance and operation of the individual retail malls, as well as pay for the rental of office and use of equipment. The operating company also has the right to collect a service charge and statutory income from the tenants. The adjustments for 2Q12 were reflected in the 3Q12 results. 3Q12 results were better than what we expected, partly due to the above arrangements. Total return for the period after tax rose 34.4% YoY to S$21.2m. 9M12 total return for the period before tax and revaluation of S$78.5m equaled 82% of our prior FY12F estimate, which we now raise to S$103m. Rolling forward our model, we raise our fair value from S$0.47 to S$0.52 and upgrade LMIRT from Hold to BUY.

MIIF: Expect lower FY13 distribution; buy-back mandate suspended (NRA)

Macquarie International Infrastructure Holdings
Current Price S$0.570
Fair Value S$0.575

 Expect lower FY13 distribution; buy-back mandate suspended
3QFY12 distribution was weaker than expected. 3QFY12 distribution income fell 9.3% YoY to S$42.5m, below our expectations largely due to a 22.7% YoY fall in distribution to S$17.4m from Hua Nan Expressway (HNE) as a result of higher interest expenses charge and the payment of higher taxes at the normal tax rate of 24% following the expiration of HNE’s concessionary 11% tax rate in 2011. 3QFY12 distributions from Changshu Xinghua Port (CXP) grew 28.9% YoY to S$6.9m, cushioning weaker contributions from HNE as well as Taiwan Broadband Communications (TBC), which distributed 4.1% YoY lower income of S$18.2m in 3QFY12. 9MFY12 distribution grew 18.2% YoY to S$67.1m mainly due to higher distribution from MIIF’s increased stake of 47.5%, from 20%, in Taiwan Broadband Communications (TBC). With the bulk of distribution received over nine months of a financial year, particularly in 3Q, the 9MFY12 distribution was below our expectations of a FY12 distribution of S$71.5m, largely due to weaker than expected distributions from TBC and HNE in 3QFY12.

Unisem: Fine tuning its circuits (CIMB)

Unisem
Current RM0.98.
Target RM0.97
Fine tuning its circuits

 Unisem held its 3Q12 briefing earlier today. The company is still bearish on the semiconductor outlook, excluding smartphones and tablets, and expects a sequential decline in revenue. We were negatively surprised by its guidance for slower margin expansion.

We still expect FY12 to still be in the red, we are forecasting a core net loss of RM14.3m. We cut our FY13-14 earnings by 13-22% after we adjust for slower improvements in EBITDA margins. We keep our target price (0.6x FY13 P/BV or 2SD below its five-year historical average) and Neutral call for the lack of catalysts.

Hai-O (BUY) - Growing From Strength to Strength


Hai-O (BUY) -
Price Target : 2.52
Last Price : 2.21
Growing From Strength to Strength

What’s New
We feel more optimistic on Hai-O’s prospect following our company visit as we understand that the Group’s resilient earnings growth is still intact backed by its key revenue driver, Multi-Level Marketing (MLM) business and overwhelming response of its newly launched products, Bamboo Salt and other health related products.

The stock has recently garnered some investors’ interests pursuant to the Group’s earlier announcement of potential higher dividend payments to shareholders at the AGM.

COSCO Corporation :3Q12 results below expectations despite numerous one-offs; net gearing above 1x (CS)

COSCO Corporation (Singapore) Ltd
Price (02 Nov 12 , S$) 0.88
TP (prev. TP S$) 0.60 (0.60)
Maintain UNDERPERFORM

3Q12 results below expectations despite numerous one-offs; net gearing above 1x

● Cosco’s 9M12 revenue of S$2.89 bn represents 71% of consensus FY12 forecasts; its net profit of S$82 mn represents 69% of consensus FY12 forecasts. While reported 3Q12 gross margin of 12.3% was better than our expectations of 10%, the company was negatively impacted by lower gain on sale of scrap material, higher interest costs and minority interest contribution.

● Cosco benefitted from numerous one-offs in 3Q12, including a S$8.9 mn writeback of provision for construction losses, government grants of S$6.5 mn, and lower tax rate of 17.6%. Excluding the writeback, underlying gross margin would be closer to 11.3% in 3Q12. We expect margins to be under pressure as a result of lower new-build vessel prices.

Tiger Airways : 1H FY13 disappoints; To sell 60% of Australian unit to Virgin Australia (CS)


Tiger Airways
Price (30 Oct 12 , S$) 0.74
TP (prev. TP S$) 0.70 (0.70)
Maintain UNDERPERFORM
1H FY13 disappoints; To sell 60% of Australian unit to Virgin Australia

● Tiger’s 2Q13 net loss of S$18.3 mn was below both CS and the Street’s expectations, in our view, due to maiden associate losses from SEAir in the Philippines and higher fuel costs. On the back of these results, we have cut our FY13 forecast by 71%.

● Tiger plans to sell 60% of Tiger Airways Australia (TAA) to Virgin Australia. Subject to regulatory approval, the deal could be concluded by end-FY13.

WILMAR: Founder Kuok Khoon Hong bought 2,634,000 shares (Limtan)

WILMAR
S$3.13-WILM.SI
 Founder Kuok Khoon Hong bought 2,634,000 shares on Monday at $3.16 average, first since Feb ’11 when he picked up 500,000 shares at $5.15 each.

 Fellow executive director Martua Sitorus bought 2 mln shares on 5/10/12 at $3.18 each.

 The stock hit a multi-year low of $2.99 in mid September, which prompted the first buy-back of 7.388 mln shares by the company at $3 each.

中國農業銀行 (1288.HK) - 利潤强勁增長 (輝立証券)

推介日期   08-11-12 
投資建議增持
建議時股價$ 3.440
買入價N/A
目標價$ 3.900


中國農業銀行 (1288.HK) - 利潤强勁增長

公司概要

中國農業銀行(以下簡稱“農行”或“集團”)的前身最早可追溯至1951年成立的農業合作銀行,2009年1月,整體改制爲股份有限公司。2010年7月,農行分別在上海證券交易所和香港聯合交易所挂牌上市。2011年,在美國《財富》雜志全球500強排名中,農行位列第127位,穆迪長期存款評級/前景展望爲A1/穩定;惠譽長期主體評級/銀行穩定評級爲A/B+,前景展望爲“穩定”。截止2012年第三季度末,按總資産計算,農行爲中國第三大銀行。

置富產業信託 (778.HK) - 升勢未止

推介日期   01-11-12 
投資建議增持
建議時股價$ 6.200
買入價N/A
目標價$ 7.050


置富產業信託 (778.HK) - 升勢未止

公司概要

置富產業信託是一家房地產投資信託基金,於2003 年7 月4 日訂立的信託契約(經修訂)組成。置富產業信託於2003 年8月12 日及2010 年4 月20 日分別在新加坡證券交易所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司上市。置富產業信託持有香港16 個零售物業,包括面積約245 萬平方呎零售樓面及1,989 個車位。

Lenovo Group: 2QFY13: In Line With Expectations; Resilient Growth (UOBKH)

Lenovo Group (992 HK)
Share Price HK$6.58
Target Price HK$7.86

2QFY13: In Line With Expectations; Resilient Growth
Lenovo reported another set of strong results despite a challenging macro environment. Management is confident that the MIDH division will contribute positively in coming 2-3 quarters given increasing scale, launch of more midrange models and high contribution from open retailer channel. Despite concerns on global PC shipments, we still expect Lenovo to continue to report strong results. Maintain BUY with a target price of HK$7.86.

Results
• Lenovo Group (Lenovo) reported a net profit of US$162.0m in 2QFY13, +13.0% yoy from US$143.9m in 2QFY12. Lenovo’s 2QFY13 results were slightly higher than market expectations. Turnover rose 11% yoy to US$8.67b in 2QFY13. Gross margin dropped slightly from 12.2% in 2QFY12 to 12.1% in 2QFY13.  Lenovo had tight control over selling, general and administrative (SG&A) expenses, which only grew 4.9% yoy slower than turnover growth. R&D expenses rose 29% yoy to US$152.8m, which was mainly due to increasing investment in MIDH division. Lenovo reported market share gains in all regions. An interim dividend of HK$0.045/share was declared.

Noble Group:3Q12: Weaker-than-expected Turnaround (UOBKH)


Noble Group
Share Price S$1.28
Target Price S$1.17

3Q12: Weaker-than-expected  Turnaround; Downgrade To SELL
3Q12 net profit was below expectations on weaker operating performances from the agriculture and energy divisions. A diminished ROE outlook over the next two years could lead to lower P/B valuations. Downgrade to SELL. Our target price is lowered to S$1.17 from S$1.52.

Results
• 3Q12 net profit below expectations.  Despite a yoy turnaround in 3Q12 net profit to US$75m (3Q11: US$18m loss), net profit was 42% and 47% of our and consensus expectations respectively. The difference can be attributable to weaker-than-expected operating profits from the core Agriculture and Energy divisions.

• Agriculture – operating profit grew just 3% yoy despite no cotton defaults.  The lower-than-expected performance was due to: a) lower ASP (-29% yoy), b) lower volumes in  the grains/oilseeds division, c) poorer performance at the sugar mills, and d) price volatility.

Yangzijiang Shipbuilding: Steady earnings in a tough market (OCBC)

Yangzijiang Shipbuilding:
Fair value    S$0.95
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.05
versus: Current price  S$0.95

Steady earnings in a tough market
• Results in line
• Recovery beyond 2013
• Drops FV from S$1.03 to S$0.95

Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (YZJ) reported a 1% YoY drop in revenue to RMB3.6b and a 14% fall in net profit to RMB877m in 3Q12, such that 9M12 revenue and net profit accounted for 72.5% and 73.3% of our full year estimates. Commercial shipbuilding remains challenging and according to the group, consolidation in the industry is now affecting mid-sized and large-sized yards. In our view, YZJ has performed well in a very challenging environment, and we appreciate management’s desire to diversify its income sources and build an integrated marine group. However, the dearth of new orders is likely to persist longer than we expected. We tweak our earnings estimates lower and roll forward our valuations, and based on 7x FY13F core earnings, our fair value estimate slips from S$1.03 to S$0.95. Maintain HOLD.

Singapore REITs: 3Q operational trends- stable but growth decelerating (DB)


Singapore REIT
Top picks
Ascendas Real Estate (AEMN.SI),SGD2.35 Buy
CapitaCommercial Trust(CACT.SI),SGD1.56 Buy
Mapletree Commercial Trust (MACT.SI),SGD1.21 Buy
Mapletree Logistics Trust (MAPL.SI),SGD1.10 Buy

3Q operational trends- stable but growth decelerating

Positive outcome overall; yield compression to slow, developers preferred
Operating trends were generally steady with initial signs of weakness (eg. CDREIT). The acquisition landscape is increasingly challenging, suggesting less upside for REITs without a visible pipeline and slower inorganic growth drivers into FY13. While we like the REITs’ stable cashflows and proactive capital mgmt, we expect yield compression to slow after the recent strength with capital raising a near-term risk and maintain our preference for the developers.

Noble Group:Agriculture fails to take off (CIMB)


Noble Group
Current S$1.28
Target S$1.45
Agriculture fails to take off

 Unlike its global peers Bunge and Cargill, Noble failed to ride on the tailwinds of improving agribusiness dynamics. Not only did 3Q12 fall short of our and consensus expectations, it also reversed the group’s earnings growth trajectory.

Lacklustre 3Q12 core profit due to poor agriculture performance meant that 9M12 met only 59% of our FY12 forecast and 60% of consensus. We cut our FY12-14 EPS and reduce our target price (10.1x CY14 P/E, 0.5SD below 5-year mean). While we expect near-term share price weakness, we maintain our Outperform rating as one quarter of weakness does not derail its long-term growth plans.

Pavilion REIT: A fashion-forward quarter (CIMB)

Pavilion REIT
Current RM1.38
Target RM1.55
A fashion-forward quarter

 At 77% of both our and consensus full-year numbers, Pavilion REIT's 9M12 core net profit trumped expectations, especially since 4Q should be even stronger due to Christmas retail sales and a full quarter’s contribution from the new Fashion Avenue.

Higher-than-expected rental reversions were behind the results deviation. We raise our forecasts and DDM-based target price for it. We also roll over our valuation to end-2013. The stock remains an Outperform, with the catalyst being a higher-than-expected rental reversion for 67% of Pavilion KL mall next year. FY13’s dividend yield of 5.4% should also support the share price.

OUE-led consortium launches $13.1b counterbid for F&N


OUE-led consortium launches $13.1b counterbid for F&N

A hotel and property firm controlled by Indonesia’s Lippo Group launched a $13.1 billion (US$10.7 billion) bid for Fraser and Neave (F&N), trumping a takeover offer from Thailand’s third-richest man for the Singapore conglomerate.

A consortium led by Overseas Union Enterprise (OUE) is offering $9.08 per share for F&N, OUE said in a statement on Thursday, beating the Thai offer of $8.88 a share.

The offer is conditional on the group receiving at least 50% acceptance, it said.

Japan’s Kirin Holdings, F&N’s second-biggest shareholder with a stake of around 14.8%, has agreed to accept the offer subject to certain conditions, OUE said. Kirin will offer to buy F&N’s food and beverage business for $2.7 billion if the OUE group’s bid is successful.

國壽又傳噩耗勢捱沽


國壽又傳噩耗勢捱沽
受累投資表現持續不濟的負面影響,國壽(02628)早前公布第三季虧損已高達22.07億元(人民幣‧下同),但困擾國壽業務的壞消息卻不止於此,國壽昨公布十月保費收入僅167億元,按月跌50.59%,表現遠遜其他險商,在A股市況未有明顯改善,國壽保費收入又面臨下滑,分析指對國壽股價或構成沽壓。國壽昨跌約1.98%。

收入險被平保追過
國壽今年首十月保費收入為2,798億元,過去三個月保費收入續升,至九月單月收入338億元,惟升勢中斷,十月僅錄167億元,按月急跌五成,不但成為跌幅最大的險商,更險被平保(02318)追過,兩者僅相差約2.77億元。

內險商保費收入自七月起按月節節上升至九月高位,惟各均未能在十月保持升勢,按月錄介乎5.16至15.6%跌幅,除國壽外,新華保險(01336)十月保費收入亦僅85.55億元,按月跌5.16%。

銀基一年低 彤叔劉央帳蝕

銀基一年低 彤叔劉央帳蝕
銀基(00886)雖然於早前重申仍是五糧液代理商,但未能為股價挽狂瀾,連跌六日後以為喘定,但昨日再挫百分之三點六四後,創一年新低,收報二點九一元,拖累富豪鄭裕彤及有「女股神」之稱的西京投資主席劉央蝕錢。

據悉,劉央於本年九月以平均價每股三點一六九元增持銀基十萬股後,使其在銀基權益增至百分之五,股東身份曝光,其後在十月再度於場內增持四千五百萬股,每股平均價三點二二元,推算該兩批貨帳面蝕一千三百九十七萬元。

據港交所資料,鄭裕彤本年先後多次增持銀基,入股平均價由年初最高每股六點六八四元至近月的三點一六九元,至八月底止,鄭裕彤持股量達百分之八點○七。

證券推介:越地有望跑贏大市

證券推介:越地有望跑贏大市
http://paper.wenweipo.com   [2012-11-16]

比富達證券(香港)
 越秀地產(0123)剛於本周初公佈,首十個月合同銷售金額按年飆升77%至115.72億元人民幣,佔全年銷售目標100億元人民幣的115%,提前兩個月達標;合同銷售面積按年升140%至95.2萬平方米,佔全年合同銷售面積96萬平方米的99%,相信完成該項銷售面積的目標應該全無難度。筆者預計該股的2012年全年合同銷售總額將達到130億元人民幣,較去年的91億元人民幣增長40%。值得留意的是,該股是少數幾家提早完成銷售目標的內房股,其銷售數據穩居行業前列,屬於較為優質並擁有國資背景的內房股。

積極增加土地儲備
 由於越秀出售廣州IFC後,獲得49億元人民幣資金回籠,加上年初至今所獲得的合同銷售金額115億元,令該股的現金流更加充沛,擁有更豐厚的財力加快收購土地的步伐。截至11月2日,該股今年新購入8幅地皮,其中有7幅是在下半年度三個月內購入,反映該股增加土地儲備的態度非常積極,令總土儲規模迅速增加至1325萬平方米。更值得關注的是,今年已收購的8幅地皮,其平均收購成本僅3,000元人民幣/平方米,所以此舉大大提升該股的資產淨值。

內銀不良貸款連升四季

內銀不良貸款連升四季

中國銀監會公布,內銀不良貸款連增四季,今年第三季金額達4,788億元(人民幣.下同),按季增加224億元,不良貸款率微升1點子至0.95%。建行(00939)董事長王洪章直言,內銀壞帳風險正在增加。

工信部公布,今年首九個月,家電行業累計工業銷售產量按年增長9.9%,較首八個月提高了1.7個百分點。

有報道指,中國鐵道部已暫定明年全國鐵路基本建設計劃規模為5,300億元人民幣,較今年略高。

股神狂沽消費股 索羅斯唱反調增持強生


股神狂沽消費股 索羅斯唱反調增持強生

【本報綜合報道】美國證監文件披露,「股神」畢菲特(Warren Buffett)旗下投資旗艦巴郡,上季沽出了大部份零售及消費股,當中包括強生(J&J)、卡夫(Kraft)及寶潔(P&G)股份,其中強生減持幅度更達95%,與此同時,巴郡首次披露持有多隻工業股,有看好經濟前景的意味。不過另一資金炒家索羅斯去季則與「股神」對着幹,期內增持強生,反映兩大投資界巨頭就美國消費業前景看法相左。

按監管當局規定,投資機構必須在季度結束後的45天內公佈上季度持股情況,巴郡當然亦不能例外。文件顯示,畢菲特與巴郡及其他關連人士,在上季買入股票開支約為11.8億美元,而沽貨則套現了約31.8億美元。與巴郡早前公佈業績時顯示,公司手持現金數目已打破過往紀錄相符。

曾淵滄專欄 16.11.12: 誰當總書記不重要


曾淵滄專欄: 誰當總書記不重要 - 曾淵滄

中共中央政治局常委名單揭曉,常委人數由九人減至七人,胡錦濤全退,習近平任總書記及軍委主席。此外,過去分管經濟事務的副總理王岐山除晉身常委外,也掌管中紀委。

我認為這個新安排是好的。中共政治局常委人數在鄧小平時代僅五人,到江澤民時代變七人,到胡錦濤年代變九人,這只說明元老們在自己退下來後,還在設法安排親信擠入權力核心,牽制總書記。鄧小平如此做,江澤民也如此做。胡錦濤全退,為將來中共長遠接班立下好榜樣,將來習近平退位時大概也得全退。有豐富經濟知識的王岐山執掌中紀委,若發揮得好,有助中共處理黨員經濟犯罪。

股民最關心何時放水
對小股民而言,誰當總書記根本不重要,股民更關心的是,十八大後,銀根會不會放寬?基建會不會加快?有沒有一大堆的「下農村」計劃,將銷情欠佳的電器、汽車以折扣價賣到農村?

OUE bids S$9.08 per share for F&N conglomerate

OUE bids S$9.08 per share for F&N conglomerate
Consortium's offer is 20 cents higher than Thai bid, has support of Kirin Holdings
04:46 AM Nov 16, 2012

SINGAPORE - The fight for control of Fraser & Neave took a twist last night after a consortium led by Overseas Union Enterprise bid S$9.08 per share for the food, beverage and property conglomerate, trumping the S$8.88 offer by Thai whiskey king Charoen Saravadhanabhakdi.

The offer, worth a total of S$13.1 billion, has the support of Kirin Holdings, which owns around 14.8 per cent of F&N. The Japanese brewer has irrevocably undertaken to accept the bid, subject to certain conditions.

And, if the deal goes through, Kirin has agreed to make an offer for F&N's food and beverage business for S$2.7 billion in cash.

MAS takes delivery of third Airbus A380


MAS takes delivery of third Airbus A380

2012/11/16

SEPANG: Malaysia Airlines' third Airbus A380 aircraft arrived in KL International Airport (KLIA) yesterday morning.

The aircraft, which was ferried from Toulouse, France, will undergo final preparations in KLIA for commercial flight operations. The national carrier will also receive its fourth A380 by end of this week, Malaysia Airlines said in a statement.

Malaysia Airlines will use these two 494-seater aircraft to commence day-time flights from KLIA to London Heathrow effective November 24. Flight MH4 will depart KLIA at 10.45am daily to arrive London Heathrow the same day at 4.15pm.

LCCs fly high on strong demand

LCCs fly high on strong demand
By BILQIS BAHARI
bbahari@nstP.com.my
2012/11/16

REGIONAL HUB: klia2 ready to take on role as low-cost carrier hub in Asean region

AN EXPANDING middle income group brought about by the rapid economic growth in Asia is spurring strong demand for low-cost travel.

Due to the growing trend of budget travel among Asians, the continent has seen an increase in the number of low-cost carriers (LCCs) this year alone.

Japan, for example, has announced three new LCCs - AirAsia Japan, Peach Aviation and Jetstar Japan.

Glomac plans more Grade A offices


Glomac plans more Grade A offices
By SHAREN KAUR
bt@nstp.com.my
2012/11/16

KUALA LUMPUR: Glomac Bhd, a property developer and investment group, aims to build more Grade A office towers in the Klang Valley as part of its expansion, its chief says.

Group managing director and chief executive officer Datuk FD Iskandar Mansor said there is a trend now where multinational companies are moving out of the central business district.

"We anticipate more demand for Grade A office towers. As a developer, if there is demand, we will definitely put up more towers," Iskandar said recently.

10月產量減3.3%‧庫存再寫新高‧棕油價料明年緩升

10月產量減3.3%‧庫存再寫新高‧棕油價料明年緩升
Created 11/15/2012 - 07:59

(吉隆坡14日訊)大馬10月份棕油產量按月下滑3.3%,可能意味產量將逐步放緩至明年首季,加上出口成長超越預期,使分析員普遍認為原棕油價將於明年逐步回升,惟對未來兩個月走勢存有分歧。

興業研究認為,儘管原棕油庫存再度改寫歷史新高,10月庫存增加至251萬公噸,惟年化存貨使用比率下滑至13.8%,隨著產量開始見頂回落,加上來臨佳節帶動需求,庫存有望自11月開始下滑。

“我們相信,大馬原棕油庫存有望在年杪回落至200萬公噸水平,帶動存貨使用進一步走低到10至11%。"

為此,興業相信原棕油短期下滑風險已經受限,預見未來價格緩慢回升至2013年上半年,不過,考量近期價格跌勢,興業下修全年原棕油價預測至每公噸2千900令吉。

China's Market Valuation Could Get Cheaper: Analyst


What Do China's New Leaders Mean for the Economy?


Bullish on China's Economy


Can Indonesia Weather the Global Economic Slowdown?


The Rise of China's Consumer Class


《财经早班车》 财政悬崖迫近 避险资产获追捧

《财经早班车》 财政悬崖迫近 避险资产获追捧
http://www.sina.com.cn 2012年11月14日 宁夏卫视《财经早班车》

Spotlight Trained on Two Stocks


What Are the Bargaining Chips in Fiscal Cliff Deal?


FB Investors Brace for Possible Post-Lockup Selling


Trading Apple's Bear Market


Is it Time to Buy Facebook?: Pros


《财经夜行线》 摩根大通李晶:明年春季股市开始反弹

《财经夜行线》 摩根大通李晶:明年春季股市开始反弹
http://www.sina.com.cn 2012年11月13日 宁夏卫视《财经夜行线》

Fiscal Cliff Fears Push VIX up 16% to 14-Month High


Here's What the Fiscal Cliff Actually Looks Like


Professor Cautiously Optimistic About China


Why an Overhaul Is Needed in China's State Banks


《财经早班车》 经济数据糟糕 日本或陷入衰退泥潭

《财经早班车》 经济数据糟糕 日本或陷入衰退泥潭
http://www.sina.com.cn 2012年11月13日 宁夏卫视《财经早班车》

《财经早班车》 穆迪警告:达成预算协议是美3A评级前提

《财经早班车》 穆迪警告:达成预算协议是美3A评级前提
http://www.sina.com.cn 2012年11月13日 宁夏卫视《财经早班车》

Thursday, November 15, 2012

UEM置地全年淨利成長40%料達標


UEM置地全年淨利成長40%料達標
Created 11/15/2012 - 08:03
(吉隆坡14日訊)UEM置地(UEMLAND,5148,主板產業組)預定本月28日公佈第三季業績,興業研究相信該公司可捎來強穩表現,全年更料能達到40%淨利成長目標,促使未來3年財測最高獲調升23%。

該公司旗下產業計劃將顯著入賬,雖然仍無法達到30億令吉銷售目標,但已成功攫取成長動力。

截至10月
銷售達14億

興業將UEM置地2012至2014財政年財測上調16%至23%,至4億1千240萬、4億3千920萬及5億零40萬令吉淨利,以反映下半年銷售表現強韌。

淨利亮麗惟全年貸款或未達標‧馬銀行前景受看好


淨利亮麗惟全年貸款或未達標‧馬銀行前景受看好
Created 11/14/2012 - 19:08
(吉隆坡14日訊)馬來亞銀行(MAYBANK,1155,主板金融組)首9個月淨利揚升18.21%至42億8千511萬1千令吉,超越市場預期,分析員指出,雖然該公司可能達不到設下的全年貸款目標,但信貸成本走跌將能成為緩衝,長期前景仍受唱好。

馬銀行管理層暗示,全年可能無法取得16.2%貸款成長目標,歸咎於銀行業貸款走勢放緩,加上新加坡貸款業務面對強烈價格競爭,但表示會秉持有紀律的放貸守則。

大馬研究預期該公司全年貸款成長只有5.5%。

興業研究指出,除了受到價格因素影響,整體金融體系貸款表現欠佳,也導致第三季貸款成長放緩。管理層相信此趨勢將延續至末季,即新加坡貸款表現仍趨軟,而大馬及印尼則相對穩定。

附加股虽超购31.45% 科恩马盈利展望仍看淡

附加股虽超购31.45% 科恩马盈利展望仍看淡
Created 11/15/2012 - 11:49
(吉隆坡14日讯)科恩马(KNM,7164,主板工业产品股)发售附加股收到31.45%超额认购率,分析员认为这这是来自股东的正面讯号,更可以避免债券违约风险,然而,盈利展望仍然不受看好。

科恩马献议发行4亿8892万659股附加股,共收到认购6亿4267万5474股附加股的申请,相等于31.45%的超额认购率,并成功集资1亿9550万令吉。

侨丰投行研究分析员表示,超额认购是股东的正面讯号,但未能刺激2013财年的盈利,主要是超过75%的资金需要支付银行贷款。因此,他维持2013财年整体预测不变。

截至今年6月30日,科恩马净负债率为52.4%,而完成上述行动后,分析员估计可在2012财年内,负债率可改善到35至40%。

云顶新加坡净利下跌拖累 云顶遭下修股价跌


云顶新加坡净利下跌拖累 云顶遭下修股价跌
Created 11/15/2012 - 11:59
(吉隆坡14日讯)云顶新加坡2012财年首三季净利按年滑落21%,拖累持有52%股权的云顶(Genting,3182,主板贸服股)投资评级遭到下修。

由于受到不利因素拖累,云顶今早以9.43令吉报开,较周一的9.49令吉闭市价,下跌6仙或0.63%。

随后,该股节节败退,早盘休市时,报9.23令吉暂休,股价在半天蒸发了26仙或2.74%,成交量为162万5700股。

云顶今天全日下挫31仙或3.3%,以9.18令吉挂收,全日最低为9.12令吉,成交量有419万5400股。

F&N likely in focus on takeover bid deadline


F&N likely in focus on takeover bid deadline

F&N is likely to be in focus as the deadline for accepting TCC Assets $8.88/share takeover bid is today; potential rival suitor OUE is also likely to be in the spotlight.

“The Thais are banking on OUE failing to launch a rival bid, as they themselves have not improved their $8.88 current offer. Should OUE fail to come up with a deal, through lack of funding or big-name partners, it will leave egg on their faces and some panic among F&N shareholders that the share price might slide back towards $8.88,” says Justin Harper, market strategist at IG Markets Singapore, in a note.

F&N is flat at $9.21. OUE is down 1.5% at $2.56.

Ezra wins $332.5m charter contract from Hess E&P Malaysia


Ezra wins $332.5m charter contract from Hess E&P Malaysia.

Ezra Holdings’s production division, EOC Limited, has secured its first contract from Hess Exploration and Production Malaysia B.V. for the charter of the group’s Floating, Production, Storage and Offloading (FPSO) vessel, the Lewek Arunothai.

The award has a value of US$272.1 million ($332.5 million) for three years with the potential of another US$271.1 million should the full extension of three years be exercised.

Under the contract, FPSO Lewek Arunothai, will be deployed on a three-year fast-track gas production project in the North Malay Basin, Malaysia. The FPSO will be used to support early production activities and is targeted to be on station from mid-2013.

基金低撈 炒國策股

基金低撈 炒國策股
滬深股市止跌回穩,加上近兩日港匯回勇,昨日曾再逼近強方兌換保證水平,港股尾市漲幅擴大,恒指漲253點,收報21,441點,收復周二失地。基金經理稱,恒指上周四至本周二累挫近一千點,故趁低吸納個別落後股,然而只屬短線操作。

個別長倉基金更進行「即日鮮」買賣,主要是預留資金認購人保集團(01339)。美銀美林基金經理調查顯示,儘管市場看好中國經濟前景,但基金經理仍審慎,暫時無意押注周期性股份及降低現金比重。

國務院批准人民幣合格境外機構投資者(RQFII)投資額度增加2,000億元人民幣,而最新公布的財政收支與用電量數據再印證經濟回暖,滬深股市止跌回穩,滬綜指漲0.37%,收報2,055點;深成指漲0.59%,收報8,283點。兩市成交縮逾一成至727億元人民幣,創兩個半月來新低。

越秀地產:剛需大 表現超預期


越秀地產:剛需大 表現超預期
2012年11月15日
【明報專訊】越秀地產(0123)從8月開始積極增加土地儲備,執行董事陳志鴻對房地產前景感到樂觀,表示明年將大力推盤。他亦表示,港府開徵境外買家印花稅(BSD),表明內地人在港置業需求強,越秀不會劈價賣樓。

陳志鴻預計市場明年的推貨量會減少,而越秀地產會大力推進。8月至今,越秀地產共動用約58億元增加190萬平方米的土地儲備,陳稱新拍土地會在拍地後3個月內開工建設。

十八大提國民收入翻番 利好樓市

他認為,今年年初房地產市場偏冷,但從第3季開始,市場表現優於地產商的年初預期。這反映市場對房地產的剛性需求大,經濟周期對房地產的影響小於預期,「未來十幾二十年,無論經濟是冷是熱,房地產都會有發展」。

80後投資情報:美元王者地位難替代

80後投資情報:美元王者地位難替代


美國總統選舉後,市場興奮了不足一日便打回原形,一個「財政懸崖」便令全球各地市場陷入恐慌。近一星期資金由風險性資產流入避險的美債,令美國十年期國債息率跌至1.6%,美匯指數升至近兩個月高位81的水平。

美元上升,但不是所有主要貨幣都下跌,澳元及紐元等高息貨幣因本身財政較穩健,受到歐美債務問題影響較小,貨幣匯價一般相對硬淨。

「財政懸崖」問題並不是甚麼新事物,早於去年美國國會討論調高國債上限時,市場便預料到有這一天的來臨。現在市場的恐慌主要來自兩方面,一是總統選舉後,政治形勢與之前沒有大分別,參眾兩院仍是由民主和共和兩黨主導,相信討論進行時還是有不少衝突,為市場帶來不確定性。二是距離懸崖限期愈來愈近,但還未有進展,令市場相信出現「財政懸崖」的機會增加。

建行3策略 應對利率市場化

建行3策略 應對利率市場化
王洪章︰加快向綜合金融轉型
內地處於金融改革的關鍵時期,內銀面對來自四方八面的挑戰。建設銀行(00939)董事長王洪章書面回覆本報,詳細談及建行應對利率市場化的三大策略,經營環境變化已促使該行加快從單一銀行功能向綜合金融服務集團轉型。

擴信用卡業務 培養定價能力

王洪章指出,應對利率市場化的對策,一是採取綜合化經營戰略,由於存貸款利差收入增長的難度加大,該行將擴展包括信用卡業務、金融市場業務等其他業務;其次,建行正培養市場化定價能力,定價策略則是堅持與自身市場地位和業務目標一致;三則是調整信貸結構和轉變經營方式。

Singapore’s First REIT to raise up to $30.7m via placement


Singapore’s First REIT to raise up to $30.7m via placement

Singapore’s First Real Estate Investment Trust, which owns healthcare assets, is placing up to 31.6 million units at an indicative price range of $0.95-$0.97 each, raising as much as $30.7 million.

The First REIT units will yield around 7.4-7.6% based on the offer price, according to a term sheet seen by Reuters.

First REIT units, which are suspended from trading, were last transacted at $0.985, down 1.5%. The trust is sponsored by Indonesia’s Lippo Karawaci.

曾俊華重申無意改聯滙


【本報訊】早前熱錢再度湧港,金管局先後10次入巿沽港元,以維持港元滙價穩定;巿場再提出港元與美元脫鈎。財政司司長曾俊華昨日出席立法會會議時重申,無意改變現行聯繫滙率制度,又指聯滙並非推高資產價格的元兇,目前亦未有其他貨幣與港元掛鈎的更好選擇。

曾俊華指出,聯滙在不同經濟周期保持本港的貨幣及金融系統穩定,符合本港長遠利益。他指熱錢流入並非由聯滙而起,並列舉區內其他貨幣於今年首三季兌美元升值2%至9%不等,可見全球過剩資金流入亞洲,並非只流入本港。

至於影響本港的高樓價,他指資產價格被推高,乃由於土地及房屋供求關係與利率所致。通脹方面,他認為聯滙及人民幣升值亦非主因,元兇是全球商品價格急升,當中以食品價格尤甚,最近通脹已跟隨全球商品價格回落;鄰近經濟體系如新加坡亦受通脹困擾,去年通脹率達5.2%,與本港相若。

附加股籌2億免違約 科恩馬獲利仍受挑戰


附加股籌2億免違約 科恩馬獲利仍受挑戰

(吉隆坡14日訊)科恩馬(KNM,7164,主要板工業)股價已跌至大馬投資研究的55仙合理價水平,該行上修評級至守住,但獲利前景仍具挑戰性。

 該股以平盤至52.5仙迎市,隨后一直處于負面區間,窄幅波動,全日遊走介于50仙至52.5仙之間。

 休市時科恩馬暫掛52仙,跌0.5仙,交投約302萬股;閉市時報51.5仙,跌1仙,共有385萬2100股易手。

 大馬投資研究分析報告指出,該公司附加股計劃獲超額認購31%,籌措近2億令吉,使公司免于償債違約,是一項很正面的發展。

 但隨著全球經濟環境動盪,及石油提煉與石油化學綜合發展計劃(RAPID)長期發展,該公司的獲利前仍深具挑戰。

雙威柔佛度假村發展值120億

(吉隆坡14日訊)雙威集團(SUNWAY,5211,主要板房產)將會在柔佛州建設發展總值120億令吉的度假村,預計于2014年落成。

 雙威集團房產發展董事經理何漢生說,基于有大批外國人購買超過價值100萬令吉的房產,因此相當看好此發展項目。

 他在接受《商業時報》專訪時透露,顧慮到公眾承擔能力,2014年推出度假村時,會提供不同價格的房產,每棟從50萬令吉起,最高可超過100萬令吉,滿足中端及高端的需求。

 雙威集團去年聯合國庫控股(Khazanah Nasional)以7億4533萬令吉購得新山美迪尼依斯干達(Medini Iskandar)277公頃土地。

末日博士:股市崩塌將到来

(纽约14日讯)末日博士麦嘉华(MarcFaber)表示,市场不久將走向崩溃,预期股市將损失20%。

麦嘉华称,市场崩溃並不因为希腊的危机,也不会因为美国的「財政悬崖」,因根本不会出现「財政悬崖」。

市场崩溃最终將因企业利润的下滑,全球经济明年將难以增长,甚至会出现萎缩。

他指出,科技巨头苹果的股价从9月高点下跌20%,从上月下跌14%。同时,一系列企业的季度財报疲软,包括亚马逊、麦当劳和谷歌,打压了投资者情绪。

他认为,美国「財政悬崖」或將在未来5年迎来微小的税收增长,在未来100年迎来部分支出削减。美国需要经歷困难,欧元区通过紧缩政策打压预算赤字向美国做出了典范。

他还指出,美国的困难难以避免,问题是美国选择利用紧缩政策经歷短痛,还是选择未来5至10年社会完全崩溃的长痛。

Great Eastern Holdings: Insured Upside (DMG)


Great Eastern Holdings: Insured Upside
(TRADING BUY,  S$15.50,  Trading Buy:  S$24.50)
Key points
· S$422m gain from sale of legacy holdings in APB &F&N.
· Further stream-lining and divestment of non-core assets to unlock further value.
· Core insurance business is an attractive franchise with market leadership positions in Singapore and Malaysia.
· Stock is attractively priced at 0.9x P/EV versus comparable transactions.  
· Over-capitalised balance sheet could be utilised to fund a third privatisation move by OCBC.
· 60% upside to our $24.50 Target Price. Trading BUY.

Global Logistic Properties bets on Brazil for growth


Global Logistic Properties bets on Brazil for growth
04:45 AM Nov 15, 2012
SINGAPORE - Global Logistic Properties (GLP) is making its first foray into Brazil by teaming up with large institutional investors to buy assets in the South American country, as it looks to sustain its strong pace of growth.

Developers such as GLP are looking to tap strong demand for high-quality warehouses in Brazil. Last week, Australian competitor Goodman Group also announced plans to develop logistic assets in Brazil through a joint venture.

GLP agreed to form joint ventures with the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board, China Investment Corp and Government of Singapore Investment Corp to acquire 40 properties, including stabilised assets and projects under development, worth around US$1.4 billion (S$1.7 billion).

"Brazil is the next hot spot," said Mr Kian Lin Ong, an analyst at Maybank Kim Eng. "Investors are always looking for growth. Japan is more or less stable and in China, I guess the growth is moderating. So, Brazil is a logical choice."

Unisem: Back in the chips (CIMB)


Unisem
Current RM0.95
Target RM0.97
Back in the chips

 After a string of quarterly losses, Unisem returned to profits in 3Q12, thanks to operational improvements that narrowed 9M12's core net loss to RM15m vs. our full-year forecast of RM14.3m loss. We expect a weaker 4Q12 profits due to seasonality and weak sector sentiment.

Although valuations have fallen to 0.6x FY13 P/BV, we retain our Neutral call as we see no rerating catalyst at this juncture. As the results were in line, we maintain our forecasts. But we cut our valuation basis to 2 s.d. (prev. 1 s.d.) below its 5-year historical average and peg it to 0.6x FY13 P/BV to reflect the prolonged weakness in the sector.

Overseas Union Enterprise: 3Q12: Asset Recycling In The Works? (UOBKH)


Overseas Union Enterprise
Share Price S$2.71
Target Price S$3.28

3Q12: Asset Recycling In The Works?
3Q12: Asset Recycling In The Works?
Results came in in line with our expectations. Office leasing momentum showed signs of pick-up while hotel performed steadily. OUE is looking at asset recycling opportunities with  a possible divestment of Mandarin Orchard and evaluating M&A opportunities (potential offer for F&N). Maintain BUY with a target price of S$3.28.

Results
 3Q12 net profit rose 20% yoy, results in line. Overseas Union Enterprise (OUE) reported 3Q12 net profit of S$20.4m (+20% yoy), bringing 9M12 net profit to S$68.4m, in line with our expectations.

 Revenue rose 18% yoy on the back of better contributions from all three segments (hospitality, property investment and property development)  while core earnings grew at a higher 27% yoy on lower marketing costs and administrative expenses.

Asia Enterprises: Rough ride ahead for steel sector (NRA)


Asia Enterprises
Current Price S$0.22
Fair Value S$0.32
Rough ride ahead for steel sector

3Q12 earnings below expectation. As global steel demand remains weak, Asia Enterprises (AEH) 3Q12 net profit of S$0.9m came in 57% below our S$2.0m expectation, hit by both lower trade volume and ASP. Despite China’s steelmakers cutting output since July, it still couldn’t offset the sharp fall in demand in China, resulting in global steel producers raising fears of China’s tumbling exports. Given that the macroeconomic picture remains in the doldrums, we cut our FY12-14 earnings forecast by 19-33%, our fair value however remains at S$0.32, still pegged at 0.9x FY13 PBR, or implied 6.7x ex-net cash FY13 PER. Maintain Overweight.

CitySpring Infrastructure Trust: Jump in Profit Better Than Expected (S&P)

CitySpring Infrastructure Trust
Price: SGD0.45
Jump in Profit Better Than Expected
• Earnings rebound better than expected. 2QFY13 (Mar.) net profit of SGD8.8 mln represented a strong rebound in City Gas contribution to SGD8.9 mln from a net loss of SGD3.9 mln a year ago. The improvement in City Gas income mainly reflects the timing of its tariff hike, which now better matches revenue to fuel costs. Also, Basslink saw significantly lesser net loss of AUD8.1 mln from AUD34.2 mln net loss a year ago in the absence of a one-time tax charge. Basslink’s derivative losses were also much lower at AUD1.7 mln vs. AUD4.7 mln in 2QFY12 and AUD5.3 mln in 1QFY13 and the company benefitted from no tax in 2QFY13. • Cash earnings up sharply. Given the improved City Gas income, cash earnings reached SGD34.5 mln in 2QFY13 leaving year-to-date cash earnings of SGD55.6 mln.

Genting Singapore: Turning around soon (DBSV)

Genting Singapore
HOLD S$1.235
Price Target : 12-Month S$ 1.30 (Prev S$ 1.45)
Turning around soon

• Results below expectations, VIP & local mass segments still soft
• Earnings should rebound from 4Q12 onwards, Western Zone completing to target new markets
• Cut 2012-14E EBITDA by 14-17%; Maintain Hold but cut TP to S$1.30 (from S$1.45)

Below expectations again. 3Q12 EBITDA came in at S$303m (- 19% y-o-y, -3% q-o-q), bringing 9M12 EBITDA to 62-70% of our and consensus’ full-year estimates. The drag came from: a) Lower VIP win rate (2.8% vs 2Q12: 3.1%, 3Q11: 3.2%); b) Continual contraction in rolling chip (-3% qoq vs MBS +2%); and c) Softer mass volume (table & slots 3-4% qoq vs MBS’ 4-6%). EBITDA margin was lower at 46% (3Q11: 48%) due to pre-opening expenses for Western Zone (impact to last till 1Q13). GENS also recognised S$1.3m loss on disposal of its investment in Echo.

Warren E. Buffett(沃伦•巴菲特)
Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful
别人贪婪时我恐惧, 别人恐惧时我贪婪
投资只需学好两门课: 一,是如何给企业估值,二,是如何看待股市波动
吉姆·罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)
“错过时机”胜于“搞错对象”:不会全军覆没!”
做自己熟悉的事,等到发现大好机会才投钱下去

乔治·索罗斯(George Soros)

“犯错误并没有什么好羞耻的,只有知错不改才是耻辱。”

如果操作过量,即使对市场判断正确,仍会一败涂地。

李驰(中国巴菲特)
高估期间, 卖对, 不卖也对, 买是错的。
低估期间, 买对, 不买也是对, 卖是错的。

Tan Teng Boo


There’s no such thing as defensive stocks.Every stock can be defensive depending on what price you pay for it and what value you get,
冷眼(冯时能)投资概念
“买股票就是买公司的股份,买股份就是与陌生人合股做生意”。
合股做生意,则公司股份的业绩高于一切,而股票的价值决定于盈利。
价值是本,价格是末,故公司比股市重要百倍。
曹仁超-香港股神/港股明灯
1.有智慧,不如趁势
2.止损不止盈
成功者所以成功,是因为不怕失败!失败者所以失败,是失败后不再尝试!
曾淵滄-散户明灯
每逢灾难就是机会,而是在灾难发生时贱价买股票,然后放在一边,耐性地等灾难结束
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