Saturday, November 10, 2012

谢国忠:日企退出中国布局东南亚的可能性不大


下跌股 城中城产业RM5.57 支撑

下跌股 城中城产业RM5.57 支撑
Created 11/10/2012 - 12:22

城中城产业(KLCCP,5089,主板产业股)遭受卖压而告回落了,日线股价趋势跌破5.70令吉支撑后,终场时收5.58令吉,按日跌16仙或2.79%。城中城产业股价趋势已进入回调,且开始调整,短期内会设法在5.40-5.57令吉间寻找支撑。

9/11/12行情

闭市:5.58令吉
起落:-16仙
最高:5.77令吉
最低:5.58令吉
成交量:10854宗
本益比:7.926倍
毛周息率:1.792%
52周最高:6.33令吉
52周最低:2.93令吉

末日博士: 奥巴马连任是灾难 美股应跌50%


末日博士: 奥巴马连任是灾难 美股应跌50%
Created 11/10/2012 - 09:09

(纽约9日讯)奥巴马连任美国总统,美股周三急挫逾300点,“末日博士”麦嘉华直言,奥巴马连任是个灾难,股市理应最少下挫50%。

他预期奥巴马未必能够完成4年任期,明年美国经济会陷入衰退,股市会下挫20%,更戏言投资者要赶快买机关枪来保护自己资产,自己则需要一辆坦克。

向来言论大胆的麦嘉华接受彭博社访问时说,对奥巴马连任美国总统感到吃惊,更直言奥巴马对美国及营商者而言是个“灾难”,更质疑他容许极度宽松货币政策,导致生活成本高涨。

他又说在有机会推更多妨碍企业招聘与加税等不利经济的法例与措施等因素影响下,奥巴马很可能在四年总统任期完结前,因为丑闻而下台。

本地基金持续买入 高股息股回酬率被压缩


本地基金持续买入 高股息股回酬率被压缩
Created 11/10/2012 - 10:58

(吉隆坡9日讯)由于寻求高回酬的本地基金多采取买入行动,国内高股息股在2011和2012年持续出现回酬率被压缩的情况。

瑞士信贷研究分析员指出,国内储蓄率偏高和就业人口迅速增加,促使很多找寻高回酬的本地基金流入股市和认购高股息股,导致这些股项在这两年内的回酬率被压缩。

在分析员所观察的各高股息股当中,他持续偏爱的股项包括明讯(Maxis,6012,主板贸服股)、柏威年产托(PavReit,5212,主板产业信托股)、安联金融(AFG,2488,主板金融股)、怡保花园产托(IGBREIT,5227,主板产业信托股)、嘉德产托(CMMT,5180,主板产业信托股)、大众银行(PbBank,1295,主板金融股)、大马交易所(Bursa,1818,主板金融股)、数码网络(Digi,6947,主板基建股)、英美烟草(BAT,4162,主板消费产品股)和森那美(Sime,4197,主板贸服股)。

Unisem positive after Q3 turnaround


The Star Online > Business
Saturday November 10, 2012
Unisem positive after Q3 turnaround

PETALING JAYA: The outlook for semiconductor manufacturer Unisem Bhd looks brighter after the company returned to the black in the third quarter ended Sept 30 with the recovery driven by efficiency gains.

Analysts at MIDF Research said while net profit might be below expectations, there was a turnaround after three consecutive quarters of losses.

“We believe that Unisem will recover in the financial year (ending Dec 31, 2013) (FY13) as the industry had hit a trough in first half of FY12. The increase of its average selling price (ASP) and higher quality customer will help revenue to rebound. At the current price level, we believe that it is an attractive entry point for investors to take position for the next industry up-cycle,” they said.

曾淵滄博士-股市资讯专栏 09.11.2012


曾渊沧博士专栏
文: 曾渊沧博士 2012年11月09日 曾渊沧博士专栏
11月6日,美国总统选举。11月8日,中国中共十八大开会。短短的三天,世界上最大的两个经济体的最高领导可能更换。写本文时,美国总统选举正在投票,结果未揭晓。不过,我认为不论谁当选,对新加坡股市的影响不大。中国领导层也一样,不管谁进入中共政治局常委,基本政策不会变。

若奥巴马胜,则一切照旧,QE3继续,超低利率继续。有人担心,若罗姆尼胜,QE3超低利率会变。不过,我不担心,因为现阶段美国经济的确仍未全面复苏,没有条件让罗姆尼真的取消QE3、加息。

很多年前,这个世界只有7个被称为经济强国的所谓G7。后来,出现了金砖四国BRIC,再演变成G20。但是美国传媒则更努力营造G2的形象。所谓G2,即美国与中国。在美国传媒眼中,今后的世界,将由G3所控制。

KNM files RM50.6m claim against ASX-listed Mission NewEnergy unit


The Star Online &; Business
Published: Friday November 9, 2012 MYT 7:58:00 PM
KNM files RM50.6m claim against ASX-listed Mission NewEnergy unit

KUALA LUMPUR: KNM Group Bhd's unit had served a winding-up petition against Mission Biofuels Sdn Bhd for RM50.66mil for goods sold and works carried out at a plant in Kuantan Port.

According to KNM's on Friday, its unit KNM Process Systems Sdn Bhd filed the petition on Mission Biofuels and the winding-up petition was fixed for hearing on Feb 4, 2013.

Mission Biofuels is a unit of Mission NewEnergy Ltd (MNEL), listed on the Australian Stock Exchange.

KNM also disclosed its executive chairman and CEO Lee Swee Eng has a major shareholding interest in MNEL.

券商心頭好.減輕依賴核心業務 實康打進房產市場

券商心頭好.減輕依賴核心業務 實康打進房產市場

券商:艾芬投資銀行
目標價:60仙

實康(SALCON,8567,主要板貿易)或進入房地產市場分一杯羹,旗下子公司Nusantara Megajuta昨日宣布購入柔佛兩片土地,價值9970萬令吉。

 Nusantara Megajuta獻購建議已經獲原地主房地產發展公司Total Merit所接受,兩間公司將于12月7日或之前正式簽下買賣合約,實際內容尚未確定。

 比較怡保花園(IGB,1597,主要板房產)柔佛州購入每平方尺160令吉價格土地,實康以9970萬令吉購買這片面積達5萬1476平方尺土地,價格稍高,每平方尺要價180令吉。

成本效率改善 友尼森恢復盈利能力


成本效率改善 友尼森恢復盈利能力

吉隆坡9日讯)友尼森(UNISEM,5005,主板科技股)第三季的营业额不起反跌,但已从过去连续三个季度的亏损中重新恢復盈利能力,显示该公司已受惠於成本效率的改善。

同时,市场分析员亦看好,半导体领域的最坏时刻已过去,友尼森有望在2013財政年復甦。

友尼森2012財政年第三季(截至9月30日)净利按年成长57%,至831万令吉;营业额则微跌1.82%,至2亿8295万令吉。该公司盈利成长主要受惠於改善成本效率的行动,其营运成本已按年缩减7.8%,至2亿3370万令吉。

友尼森的息税前赚幅也因而获得改善,促使其息税前盈利按年成长逾100%,至1460万令吉,而过去三个季度,该公司皆面对亏损。

MIDF研究分析员指出,上述改善显示该公司的產品组合和工厂使用率皆获提升。

滙控再爆避稅黑幕

滙控再爆避稅黑幕

為美國洗黑錢案而作15億美元撥備的滙控(00005),再被揭發為毒販、軍火商等「黑」客戶於英屬澤西島開設離岸戶口避稅,涉及人數達8,474人,其中近4,400名客戶以英國本土地址登記,此部分涉額6.99億英鎊。滙控昨晚於英國發表聲明,當局正研究澤西島名單的資料失竊事件,並會配合有關當局盡力打擊逃稅行為。

ADR股價低見73元

事件反映滙控對洗錢監控極之寬鬆,分析指事件再為滙控添不明朗因素,撥備或有可能增加。滙控股價昨隨大市跌0.5元,收報74.4元。而滙控ADR昨晚低見73.72元,較港收市價低0.68元。

聯想賣PC兼拓手機保盈利


聯想賣PC兼拓手機保盈利

英特爾與微軟當前面對的困局,反映科技趨勢急變對科網巨頭帶來影響,以本港投資者最為熟悉的聯想(00992)為例,雖成為全球最大個人電腦(PC)生產商,然而券商關注聯想能否保持盈利增長及其智能手機業務發展。在應用服務範疇上,早前被市場追捧的facebook(fb)及昔日科網先驅雅虎,目前正為如何把握流動上網商機而「頭痕」。

聯想周四公布的業績優於市場預期,昨日股價漲5.7%,收報6.96元,券商對聯想PC業務繼續跑贏大市有信心。不過,花旗報告明確指出,聯想盈利的持續增長及智能手機業務是否足以應對市場競爭,將對聯想未來的投資評級帶來直接影響。聯想主席兼首席執行官楊元慶周四透露,聯想智能手機在內地市佔率,有條件進一步挑戰三星智能手機在內地的領導地位。

高通打低intel PC末日到

高通打低intel PC末日到

智能手機的興起持續痛擊個人電腦市場,令以微軟及英特爾(intel)作代表的「Wintel」聯盟再被打破!繼微軟市值早被蘋果公司拋離後,全球最大手機晶片製造商高通(Qualcomm)在業績理想帶動下,市值於周四首次超越英特爾,再次印證個人電腦在智能手機的浪潮下逐漸站不住腳,個人電腦年代已成過去。

高通股價於周四一度漲7.1%至62.24美元,市值升至1,055億美元,超越英特爾的1,046億美元,即使其後高通升幅收窄,收市後市值僅少過英特爾約2.6億美元。事實上,英特爾市值自○○年科網泡沫爆破前於5,020億美元見頂後便持續滑落,與高通市值的差距更持續收窄。至於股價方面,高通今年來累漲6.3%,遠遠跑贏英特爾的累挫14%,而高通於過去十年間更累漲254%,與英特爾的累挫14%,更是榮辱互見。

券商狂踩周大福跌5.6%


券商狂踩周大福跌5.6%
【本報訊】上市不足一年的周大福(1929),因為對冲虧損而要發盈警,昨日被多間券商調低盈利預測,股價跌5.6%,收報10.18元。

德銀狠削目標價20%
德銀指出,近來珠寶零售市場表現疲弱,相信周大福難獨善其身,預計周大福截至9月底止上半年銷售只會增長7%,盈利更要大跌30%,這未包括對冲虧損的影響,相信計及這因素跌幅會更大。德銀預期,有關對冲虧損會在下半年度回撥為盈利,相信全年影響不大,但市場短線仍會視之為負面消息,該行大幅削減對周大福今年全年盈利預測33%,目標價降20%至12.58元,維持「買入」評級。

花旗則表示,對周大福上半年錄得對冲虧損及盈利下跌不感到意外,預期公司上半年純利會按年下跌25%,第二季中、港地區的同店銷售則分別會升4%及跌12%。

造船業續陷深淵 業界期待中央定單救命

造船業續陷深淵 業界期待中央定單救命

【本報訊】中國10月份的經濟數據顯示經濟谷底反彈,不過,中國的造船工業暫難走出黑洞,理由是經濟反彈全靠內需與基建而非外貿。央企中國船舶工業集團董事長胡問鳴預計,未來三年還是造船業的寒冬。證券界認同此估計,並指勿盲目跟炒,除非中央以補貼或給予救命定單。

內地造船工業期待的造船定單非來自商界而是政府。英皇證券研究部執行董事杜冠雄估計,目前全球造船的產能過剩問題需時三年消化,因此,造船工業的救命定單,最好來自內地政府,例如建造漁政船。央企中國船舶深明此理,胡問鳴表示,「我認為在三年可見的範圍內,不覺得(造船業)會有大幅度的增長,中船集團手中定單仍可堅持一至兩年,寄望於中國海軍裝備及遠洋漁船需求上升能夠及時補充公司手中的定單。」

專家:吸造船股不智
他還指出,中國海軍由近岸防禦轉向近海防禦以及最近在南海宣誓主權,未來將帶來新的海軍裝備和行政執法船的需求,若國家能在未來一至兩年內將定單逐步落實,正好能接續上民用船舶定單的不足,而國內漁船遠洋化的趨勢,亦將增加遠洋漁船的需求,亦會給中船集團帶來一些定單。

控拒評估撥備下降趨勢


滙控(005)財務董事麥恩榮,前日與證券界再舉行業績後電話會議,對於第三季內,集團為英國不當銷售還款保障保險(PPI)提撥3.53億元(美元.下同)減值,金額較第二季度為少,對於下降大勢是否已成氣候,據有參與會議的分析員引述,麥恩榮認為仍需再觀察多一兩個季度,才能清晰提撥趨勢是否續跌。

至於季度報告內,北美區列載約37億元毋擔保個人貸款,已列入可供出售資產類別內,麥恩榮在會議內透露,已有數名潛在買家洽商,期望年底或最遲明年首季,可出售有關貸款,進一步削減滙控旗下滙融資產貸款組合。

擬進一步削滙融貸款
次按危機後,滙控持續縮減消費融資及按揭貸款組合,集團季度報告顯示,連同其他擬出售並列於可出售資產類別的貸款,總額超過60億美元。

十八大后的中国股市行情


十八大后的中国股市行情
 BWCHINESE中文网 作者:徐洪才 2012-11-08

读者都对中国十八大寄予了热切期待,期望中国股市能够走出一波轰轰烈烈的牛市行情。本文分析马上出现大牛市是否可能。

随着中国经济增长逐渐回落,2012年中国股市也基本走出了一个冲高回落、震荡探底的行情。这种状况与国际主要股市大相径庭。

眼下,读者都对“十八大”寄予了热切期待,希望新一届国家领导人能够大力推进各项经济体制改革;与此同时,也期望中国股市能够走出一波轰轰烈烈的牛市行情。

在笔者看来,马上出现大牛市并不现实,但是摆脱长期熊市、逐步震荡走高,将是一个大概率事件。主要理由如下。

黃金對冲失手 周大福毛利率挫


黃金對冲失手 周大福毛利率挫
受累消費弱 上半年經營溢利跌
周大福珠寶(01929)上市不足1年,便發出「毛警」(毛利率警告),預告截至9月底止中期,因黃金對冲出現的時間差,而令毛利率按年降2至3個百分點。發言人強調此屬短暫問題,並否認存貨過多。

去年毛利29.9% 料跌3百分點

周大福指,黃金對冲令上半年毛利率下跌2至3個百分點,零售市場增長放緩及消費意慾疲弱,都令經營利潤有所減少。發言人指這純屬會計安排,不影響經營及開店計劃。周大福去年同期毛利率為29.91%。

有別其他珠寶商,周大福採取全數黃金對冲,在上市前被承銷券商吹捧為「完美對冲法」,有助毛利率穩定,不受黃金價格波動影響(詳見另文——「黃金借貸金額 升幅驚人」)。

聯想PC多銷10% 連勝14季


聯想PC多銷10% 連勝14季
全球最大PC(個人電腦)商聯想(00992)中期業績再次優於市場預期,總計四至九月的上半財年,股東應佔盈利更按年增長20%至3.03億美元(約23.63億港元),每股中期息派4.5港仙。聯想主席兼首席執行官楊元慶昨稱,有信心以智能手機為主的移動互聯和數字家庭(MIDH)業務可於未來數季取得盈利。

聯想中期業績雖然勝預期,但昨日收市仍跌2.66%,報6.58元。聯想上半財年的PC銷售額仍按年增長14%,似未受平板電腦銷情影響,至於MIDH業務部門的銷售額則為於內地為主的智能手機銷售帶動按年急升達到163%。

單以第二財季計算,雖然市場整體PC銷量按年下跌8%,聯想第二財季的PC銷售仍錄10.3%的增幅,並且是集團連續第十四個季度超越PC整體市場的平均增長。

首9月虧損雖收窄‧友力森盈利前景仍蒙塵


首9月虧損雖收窄‧友力森盈利前景仍蒙塵
Created 11/09/2012 - 19:04

(吉隆坡9日訊)友力森(UNISEM,5005,主板科技組)截至2012年9月30日止第三季淨利大增,惟9個月仍蒙受虧損,分析員多預測第四季與全年前景仍陰霾一片。

達證券說,儘管首9個月虧損由2千160萬令吉收窄至1千350萬令吉,基於首9個月業績低於預期,因而把原有預測全年淨賺340萬令吉改為淨虧360萬令吉,同時維持明、後財政年財測,等待會晤管理層再作評斷。

至於其他分析員等候管理層匯報會再對第四季與全年業績評析,一般都認為因應全球半導體與電子業第四季與明年首季庫存調整,其前景仍然陰霾。

截至2012年9月30日止第三季淨利按年上揚57.64%至830萬6千令吉,主要是成本節省奏效,時值營業額按年挫1.8%至2億8千多萬令吉,其生產線的裁員成本(首季)達570萬令吉。這是連虧3季後首次季度回彈,惟首9個月表現低於分析員預測。第三季亞洲銷售平平,歐洲銷售繼續下跌,美國銷售按季漲70%、按年漲44%至440萬令吉。

中國銀行 (3988.HK) - 貸款質量表現略好于預期

推介日期   29-10-12 
投資建議增持
建議時股價$ 3.140
買入價N/A
目標價$ 3.470


中國銀行 (3988.HK) - 貸款質量表現略好于預期

公司概要

中國銀行于1912年2月成立,是目前中國國際化和多元化程度最高的銀行。1994年中國銀行改爲國有獨資銀行,2004年8月更名爲中國銀行股份有限公司。2006年6月及7月中國銀行分別在香港及上海上市,成爲中國首家A+H股上市的商業銀行。2011年中國銀行成爲中國及新興市場國家唯一入選全球系統重要性銀行的銀行。按總資産計,截止2012年第三季度末,中國銀行爲中國第4大銀行。

友邦保險 (1299.HK) - 新增業務增長強勁

推介日期   31-10-12 
投資建議增持
建議時股價$ 30.550
買入價N/A
目標價$ 34.000


友邦保險 (1299.HK) - 新增業務增長強勁
AIA是亞太區主要的壽險集團,區內植根超過90年,提供保險、保障、儲蓄、投資和退休方面等多種金融服務,服務範圍遍及亞太區內15個國家及城市,包括: 香港、韓國、泰國、新加坡、中國、馬來西亞、菲律賓、印尼、越南…等 。

ICBC: 3Q12: Solid Results Amidst Challenging Times (UOBKH)


ICBC
Share Price HK$5.03
Target Price HK$5.75
3Q12: Solid Results Amidst Challenging Times

Earnings beat estimate by 3%. ICBC continues to deliver well-rounded results with a healthy balance sheet growth, benign asset quality and adequate capital adequacy ratio.  We are most encouraged by the 3.4% qoq deposit growth despite the intense deposit competition in the sector.    Maintain BUY. Target price: HK$5.75.

Results
• Earnings beat consensus estimate.  3Q12 earnings were Rmb62.4b, 3% ahead of consensus estimate, which was mainly due to lower-thanexpected provisioning charges made during the quarter.  We believe the overall results were good with healthy deposits growth, stable asset quality and adequate capital ratio.

曾渊沧:热钱涌入香港股市 两类股涨势可期


曾渊沧:热钱涌入香港股市 两类股涨势可期

10月25日,恒指十连升,创今年新高,理由是热钱涌港。10月26日,香港特区政府宣布两招打压楼市的措施,一是加强原有的特别印花税,将税率向上调整5%,同时将征税期由两年延长至三年。同时也推出新的买家印花税,非香港永久居民以及公司名义买楼者要额外缴付15%印花税。新举措一推出;楼市成交急降。

10月29日,地产股全面下跌跌幅介于4%至6%。但是,恒指仅是微跌,是因为恒指成分股中的其他股份升多跌少。
10月30日,地产股基本上已回稳,不再下跌,之后,就连升两日,恒指再度创新高。

两类股仍有上升空间
为什么?理由仍然是热钱流入所至,大量美元涌至,逼港元兑美元升至令香港金融管理局所允许的极限,即1美元兑7.75港元,一旦港元汇价抵达这个水平,所有新流入的热钱皆由香港金融管理局买入,在买入美元的同时,也释放大量港元,市场上的港元多少,资金充沛何处去?自然是自然是买股票。至今为止,恒指创一年新高。但是地产股仍未收复10月29日的跌幅。但是,我相信在热钱涌港的威力之下,很快地连地产股也会再创新高价。

大英Blog物館 30.10.12: 政治市無路捉 只信行運醫生醫病尾


政治市無路捉 只信行運醫生醫病尾
今年環球多國都有首腦更替。俄、法、埃及、墨西哥、委內瑞拉、希臘、南韓,都已經或行將舉行大選。當然還有中、美兩國。內地的情況,任何一位到香港書店買「禁書」的自由行旅客,都可以跟你講足三晝夜,十個人有十二個版本,自己獻醜不如藏拙。倒是對美國有點興趣:去年在本刊407期,寫過「總統周期」,第三年任期股市九成機會升,最終美股力保不失,正數過終點。近月外地傳媒搜集了不少美國歷任總統更替時的股市表現,值得稍加研究,看看可得出甚麼結論。

執政黨對股市影響不大

坊間喜以簡單的二分法,去理解美國兩黨的候選人:共和黨崇尚大市場,親近商界;民主黨偏好大政府,重視福利。故此共和黨上場利好股市;民主黨則相反。這個推論自然有誤,可引例破之:財富雜誌統計,自列根以來,五位總統共八任,以一任計,最好的是克林頓首任(92%)、奧巴馬首任(91.7%),兩者皆民主黨;最差為小布殊兩任(-0.9%、-24.4%),其為共和黨。能連任的三人,克林頓任內累積回報233.6%,力壓共和黨之光榮列根(186.9%),更別提小布殊(-25.1%)。

麥嘉華(Marc Faber)筆記: 升市難持久繼續出貨


麥嘉華筆記: 升市難持久繼續出貨 - 麥嘉華

對於透過狂印銀紙和大灑公帑救市的做法,我已不下數次提出這可能最終變成「好心做壞事」,到頭來反而不利經濟增長和發展。問題是積極干預經濟的政策,只會令到政府在提振經濟方面扮演更重要的角色,最後迫於在自由市場中推出原本不需要的法例和監管。

一項調查發現,在美國做小生意的老闆,如今不擔心利率會飆升,對生意前景亦沒有先前那麼悲觀,但關注到過度的監管會窒礙小生意的擴張速度。換句話說,美國正施行高度寬鬆的貨幣和財政政策,可是監管卻收得太緊。

額外監管會加重成本
我要補充一點,額外的監管會加重做生意的成本,引致物價上漲,即是那些受到高度監管的行業會呈現更高的通脹,這從美國高等學府學費和醫療保健費飛升可見一斑。

根據美國全國製造業協會所進行的調查,67%的受訪製造商認為,市場上出現太多不明朗因素,致令他們不敢貿然擴張業務或增聘人手;54%認為中國和印度等國家,較美國更積極扶助小企業和製造業。

SMART MONEY:星展林哲文求真精神


SMART MONEY:星展林哲文求真精神
星展私人銀行投資總監林哲文(Say Poon)曾在傳媒界打滾廿多年,憑着豐富的採訪經驗,在澳洲一份高銷量的報章擔任財經版總編輯。如今他則由一位資深傳媒人變身銀行家,面對環球水浸,他運用傳媒求真的精神及金融界的洞察力,全面剖析投資前景。

林哲文大學主修經濟學,畢業後首份工作是在當時澳洲唯一的財經報章《The Australian》擔任財經及政治版記者,他稱:「我一向對時事及新聞都有濃厚興趣,剛大學畢業,報館就招攬我,不是我選擇做新聞,而是新聞選擇了我。」

傳媒經驗 看透盛衰

談起林哲文的記者生涯,他眉飛色舞道起不少有趣經歷,曾經與當時的澳洲總理單獨午餐,甚至因為報道觸怒政府而被財政部長當面責罵等。

Ping An Insurance:3Q12: Resilient Earnings Supported By Diversified Model (UOBKH)


Ping An Insurance
Share Price HK$60.50
Target Price HK$78.00
3Q12: Resilient Earnings Supported By Diversified Model

Despite earnings missing consensus, 3Q12 earnings growth was the strongest insurer under our coverage. The results demonstrated Ping An’s resilient earnings even though A-share continues to remain volatile.  We also noted a faster life premiums growth trend during the quarter. Ping An remains our top pick in the insurance sector. Maintain BUY. Target price HK$78.00.

Results
• Strongest growth among peers.  Ping An reported a 3Q12 net profit of Rmb2.1b, up 21% yoy but lower than consensus on the back of higherthan-expected impairment charges. That said, 3Q12 earnings were the strongest compared with peers who  reported an earnings decline or made losses during the quarter. Ping An’s relatively better results were mainly due to its diversified business model.      

China Construction Bank :3Q12: Results In Line With Mixed Trends (UOBKH)


China Construction Bank
Share Price HK$5.74
Target Price HK$6.40

Results were in line with consensus but were less inspiring vs what its peers have reported so far.  While NIM surprised on the upside, CCB reported sequential decline in fees income and increase in NPL balance for the quarter. Both trends lagged its large cap peers. We believe these results are unlikely to act as a catalyst to share price. Maintain HOLD. Target price is HK$6.40 and entry price is HK$5.40.

Results
• Results in line with estimates.  China Construction Bank (CCB) reported a 3Q12 net profit of Rmb51.9b, up 12.4% yoy, which was largely in line with the consensus. The overall result was mixed as NIM surprised with an uptrend while fees income weakened and asset quality deteriorated.  That said, overall fundamental remains steady with its 3Q12 tier-1 ratio likely being  the highest among banks under our coverage.

Agricultural Bank of China: 3Q12: Upside Surprise From NIM And Fee Income (uobkh)


Agricultural Bank of China
Share Price HK$3.24
Target Price HK$4.00

Results beat consensus by 4.6% mainly due to better-than-expected NIM trend and recovering fees income.  We are selectively positive on ABC in the China banking sector on the back its continual asset quality improvement and better growth prospect in the county area. We expect the bank to continue delivering stronger earnings growth vs its Big 4 peers.  Maintain BUY. Target price: HK$4.00.

Results
• Solid 3Q12 results, with earnings beating estimate. Agricultural Bank of China (ABC) reported a net profit of Rmb39.6b for 3Q12, up 16.1% yoy and 4.6% above consensus estimates. We attribute the better-thanexpected results to the better NIM trend and recovering fee income growth.

Stock Impact
• Results positive to share price.   Key positives were better-thanexpected NIM trend, recovering fees income and continual improvement in asset quality.  Despite the impending decline in NIM in the coming quarters, we expect earnings to be supported by stronger demand (both fees and loans growth) in the county area and lower credit cost.

Noble Group: Rerating to continue (DBSV)

Noble Group
BUY S$1.31
Price Target : 12-Month S$ 1.60 (Prev S$ 1.30)
Rerating to continue


Expect 3Q12F core earnings of US$146-152m, up 1-5% q-o-q due to Brazilian sugar harvest and lift in Chinese iron ore imports
•FY12F-14F core profit increased by 10-12% as we impute higher contribution from US energy and metals trading
• TP lifted to S$1.60 from S$1.30 as we roll forward to FY13F
• BUY call reiterated – catalyst from deployment of c.US$788m cash proceeds

To report 3Q12F profits of US$146-152m. Noble is due to report its 3Q12 results on 8 Nov. We expect a marginal lift in profit to US$146-152m from US$144.9m in 2Q12. Results should be driven by impact of peak in Brazilian sugar harvest season, continued growth Noble’s US gas and power business and q-o-q bounce in Chinese iron ore imports.

Cosco Corp: Still finding its bottom (KE)

Cosco Corp
Sell (unchanged)
Share price: SGD0.880
Target price: SGD0.73 (unchanged)
Still finding its bottom

Below expectations, maintain Sell. 3Q12 results were below our expectations with revenue of SGD937.0m (-3.4% YoY, -3.9% QoQ) and corresponding PATMI of SGD26.6m (-17.5% YoY, -3.8% QoQ). 9M12 net profit made up 71% of our previous full-year forecast. Cosco has been winning offshore orders but at questionable profitability. With persistent weak shipbuilding outlook, we expect stock price to languish towards lower levels. Maintain Sell and TP of SGD0.73.

Improved margins on better product mix. Overall gross margin saw a 30bps QoQ improvement to 12.3%, but this was mainly due to better product mix with higher contribution from Marine Engineering segment. The margin improvement was not significant enough to conclude an upward trend. Instead, we believe that negative price pressure could continue to reign in on ship repair, conversion and offshore projects for the Chinese shipyards due to intense competition.

Singapore Airlines : No clear skies ahead yet (CIMB)

Singapore Airlines
Current S$10.58
Target S$11.00
No clear skies ahead yet

Although SIA managed to deliver a decent core net profit of S$90m in 2QFY13 due to sound cost control and lower effective tax rates, 1HFY13 core profit was below expectations at just 37% of our full-year estimate and 34% of consensus numbers.

We lower our FY12-14 core EPS forecasts by 2-9% to reflect continued cargo weakness and higher jet fuel assumptions. We maintain our Neutral recommendation on SIA as we think that the measures it has taken to stave off competition will be insufficient in the near-term. Our CY14 target price is based on a trough multiple of 4.2x CY14 EV/EBITDAR.

Suntec REIT: DPU Saved By Divestment Proceeds Of Chijmes (RHB)


Suntec REIT
Share Price : SG$1.60
Fair Value : SG$1.70
DPU Saved By Divestment Proceeds Of Chijmes

•Below expectations. Suntec REIT’s 3Q12 core net profit missed our and market expectations on an annualised basis. A 2.35 cents DPU was declared. 9M DPU amounted to 7.164 cents, down 3.8% from 7.45 cents in the previous year. Suntec REIT’s revenue saw the impact of the disruptions arising from the commencement of AEI works on Suntec City Mall on 1st June. However, the impact was partially offset by the better income from the office segment. NPI margin weakened to 61.4% from 64.0% in the previous quarter, due the consolidation of Suntec Singapore since 3Q2011 as well as higher operating expenses for the existing properties. The REIT has also completed all its refinancing exercise for 2012 after securing a 5- year unsecured facility to refinance the SG$200m term loan due in Oct. About SG$670m of debt will be due next year.

Hyflux: Viscous growth (DBSV)

Hyflux
HOLD S$1.335
Price Target : 12-Month S$ 1.39 (Prev S$ 1.45)
Viscous growth

• 3Q12 below, 9M12 made up 55% of forecast
• FY12/13F cut by 16%/17% on lower margin assumptions
• Maintain Hold on limited upside to lower TP of S$1.39

Earnings fell short although margins have improved. Net profit gained 15% y-o-y to S$14.5m but still below consensus and our estimate of S$20- 22m. Revenue grew 77% y-o-y S$155m. Asia ex-China made up 80% of revenue, mainly driven by Tuaspring. Gross margin of 41%, while lower than 43% in 3Q11, rebounded nicely from 35% in 2Q12. Management expects this to be sustainable. Net gearing has risen to 0.55x from 0.44x in Jun due to capital investment for Tuaspring.

Tiger Airways:2QFY13: Divests 60% Of Tiger Australia As Losses Widen (UOBKH)


Tiger Airways
Share Price S$0.74
Target Price S$0.60
2QFY13: Divests 60% Of Tiger Australia As Losses Widen

Tiger’s net loss of S$18m in 3QFY12 was worse than expectations due to weak fares in Australia. While the divestment of a 60% stake in Tiger Australia will reduce pressures on Tiger’s cash flow and gearing levels, we still feel it is insufficient to warrant an upgrade. As such, we maintain SELL but raise our target price to S$0.60 (1.4x P/B) from S$0.51.

Results
• Tiger Australia and SEAir dragged earnings. Tiger Airway’s (Tiger) 2QFY13 loss of S$18.3m was worse than our expectation of a S$2.2m loss.  This came on the back of higher-than-expected operating losses at Tiger Australia (S$20m), which offset Tiger Singapore’s S$4.8m operating profit. Tiger also booked S$3.8m in losses from associate SEAir.

IGB REIT - Business As Usual


IGB REIT -
Price Target :1.43
Last Price :1.35
Business As Usual

Fair Value : RM1.43 | Recom : Outperform (Maintained)

Aeon Co., Ltd. (Japan) to acquire Carrefour’s Malaysian operations. Aeon Japan, the parent to Aeon Co. Malaysia, has formally announced that it has entered into a sale and purchase agreement (SPA) to acquire 100% of the shares of Carrefour's Malaysian hypermarket operating subsidiary, Magnificient Diagraph S/B (MD) and Carrefour Malaysia S/B (CM) which owns 9.3% of voting right in MD. Aeon Japan has successfully completed the acquisition as at 31 Oct. MD’s corporate name will now be changed to Aeon BIG (M) S/B as part of the rebranding and restructuring exercise.

Impact on Mid Valley Megamall (MVM). Presently, both AEON and Carrefour (as well as Metrojaya) are operating as anchor tenants in MVM, taking up a total of 29.9%, or approximately 514k sqf of MVM’s total NLA (refer to Table 2). Based on our checks with Aeon Malaysia’s management, the short-term impact to MVM will be minimal, as Carrefour will undertake a rebranding exercise (change of name to “Aeon BIG”).

DBS Group Holdings: Decent Valuations (KE)

DBS Group Holdings
Buy(from Sell)
Share price: SGD13.80
Target price: SGD16.10 (from SGD13.10)
Decent Valuations, Upgrade to Buy

Upgrade to BUY. DBS’ 3Q12 net profit of SGD856m (+6% QoQ, +12% YoY) was above expectations, but largely on account of low credit costs. Positive operationally is that NIMs are likely to stabilize moving forward in our view, while loan momentum will likely sustain, albeit at a slower pace. Moreover, there has been a steady build-up in noninterest income to support earnings expansion. Share price has slipped 8% and valuations are decent at a prospective 2013 P/B of 1x. Our call is upgraded to a BUY with a raised TP of SGD16.10 on a higher 2013 P/B multiple of 1.2x (in line with peers) from 1.05x previously to reflect the more stable outlook (prospective 2013 ROAE of 11.1x).

Loan growth to sustain. Though loan growth contracted 1% QoQ due to bulk maturities on its China trade financing loans, management sees healthy replenishment of such loans. Corporate loan demand in Singapore remains buoyant, supporting loan growth of 12% annualized. We have trimmed estimates but project stable growth of 8% this year and next, versus management’s guidance of 9-10%.

Unisem 3Q12 ' A positive reversal?

Unisem
Price Target : 1.32
Last Price : 0.98
3Q12 ' A positive reversal?

Period    3Q12/9M12

Actual vs. Expectations    The group's 9M12 revenue of RM822.5m came in within expectations, accounting for 70.8% and 72.9% of ours and the consensus' full year estimates respectively.

However, the group continued to suffer losses for the first nine months amounting to RM12.8m
despite netting in a net profit of RM8.3m for 3Q12.

Dividends    No dividend was announced during the quarter.

Shareholders of iCapital.biz to decide today

The Star Online > Business
Saturday November 10, 2012
Shareholders of iCapital.biz to decide today

MAKING A POINT BY JAGDEV SINGH SIDHU

TAKEOVERS and board changes tend to happen from time to time for companies listed on Bursa Malaysia. Often, such developments involving big companies tend to hog the news and when there is resistance to any proposed change, it's bigger news.

Now we are seeing another episode of this involving the only close-end fund listed on the Main Market of Bursa. Laxey Partners Ltd, which owns a 7% stake in iCapital.biz Bhd, wants to propose three directors be appointed to the company's board of directors.

Its proposal, which is to not take over the company, seeks to narrow the discount between the share price of iCapital.biz and its net asset value, which is a higher figure.

陈鼎武:拉克西基金若加入董事部 资本投资展望蒙尘


(吉隆坡8日讯)曾与亿万富豪投资者巴菲特相提并论的基金经理陈鼎武,正致力对抗激进投资者安德鲁佩吉加入资本投资有限公司(ICAP,5108,封闭式基金)董事部。陈鼎武控制的资威资产管理私人有限公司,是资本投资的经理与投资顾问。

在本周六(11月10日)将召开的股东大会前,陈鼎武已表明对佩吉的‘短期思维’‘非常不满’,后者也是对冲基金拉克西基金的联合创办人。

陈鼎武坚持,佩吉和其他相关人士加入资本投资董事部,将威胁该基金的持续成功。

它也将摧毁该封闭式基金的理念,这项理念是由陈鼎武在2005年10月中旬提出,让投资者透过长期投资获得更多赚益,而不会着手短期投机活动。

而在本地鲜为人知的佩吉,则在去年于新加坡创出名号,重复尝试把富豪银行家黄祖耀踢出联合国际证券有限公司董事部。

Future at stake for iCapital.biz at today’s AGM


The Star Online > Business
Saturday November 10, 2012
Future at stake for iCapital.biz at today’s AGM

By TEE LIN SAY
linsay@thestar.com.my

PETALING JAYA: It is D-day today for the share owners of iCapital.biz Bhd as the future objectives and direction of the fund may possibly change significantly, depending on whether they vote to appoint three new directors.

The three are Andrew Pegge and Low Nyap Heng, who are associated with Laxey Partners Ltd, and Lo Kok Kee.

Axis REIT plans more acquisitions


Axis REIT plans more acquisitions
Business & Markets 2012

Written by Insider Asia  
Friday, 09 November 2012 08:59

Axis REIT (RM3.08) is planning more asset acquisitions to grow its portfolio. The real estate investment trust, the first to be listed on Bursa Malaysia, has been one of the most active in terms of expanding its portfolio. From the initial portfolio of just five PROPERTIES [] in 2005, it now has 30 properties valued at a combined RM1.4 billion.

The trust believes that acquisition opportunities abound in its focused segment of logistics warehouses, where demand outlook remains positive, as well as light industrial and office-industrial. Indeed, it is currently assessing seven properties worth some RM608 million for potential acquisition next year.

Salcon to venture into property development

Salcon to venture into property development
Business & Markets 2012

Written by Siow Chen Ming of theedgemalaysia.com  
Friday, 09 November 2012 09:08

KUALA LUMPUR: Water player SALCON BHD [] will venture into property development after it acquires two parcels of land measuring a total of 51,476 sq m in Johor Baru for RM99.7 million, or about RM180 psf.

The acquisition will be made by Salcon’s 50.01% owned subsidiary Nusantara Megajuta Sdn Bhd from Total Merit Sdn Bhd, which has accepted the former’s offer for the land at the stated price.

Tan confident of shareholders’ support


Tan confident of shareholders’ support
Business & Markets 2012

Written by Bernama  
Friday, 09 November 2012 09:09

KUALA LUMPUR: ICAPITAL.BIZ BHD [] founder Tan Teng Boo is confident of getting the backing of shareholders in the boardroom tussle against Laxey Partners Ltd, which he says has a “short-term recovery” focus.

Describing Laxey Partners’ involvement in icapital.biz as a “short-term investor”, Tan said the firm was only looking for quick profits, which contradicts the main pillar of icapital.biz which aims for long-term investment. Laxey has been a shareholder of icapital.biz since 2010 but recently upped its stake to about 6.9%, making it the company’s largest shareholder.

Unisem jumps 4% on 58% rise in 3Q profit

Hot Stock Unisem jumps 4% on 58% rise in 3Q profit
Business & Markets 2012

Written by Chong Jin Hun of theedgemalaysia.com  
Friday, 09 November 2012 10:10

KUALA LUMPUR (Nov 9) –  Unisem  (M) Bhd shares  jumped as much as 4%  in early trades after the semiconductor manufacturer said third quarter (3Q) net profit increased 58% from a year earlier.

However, the results were in line with analysts’ estimates.

Analysts said despite Unisem's good set of results, the investment fraternity expects the firm to post weaker profits in 4Q, mainly on seasonal factors. This is based on past trends and industry checks, according to CIMB Investment Bank research head Terence Wong.

即使周六提名失利 拉克西誓入资本投资董事部


即使周六提名失利 拉克西誓入资本投资董事部
Created 11/09/2012 - 10:58
(吉隆坡8日讯)资本投资(ICap,5108,主板关闭式基金)大股东欧洲对冲基金拉克西(Laxey)创办人兼董事安德鲁表示,即便进入董事部的献议在本周六的股东大会上被否决,他将会寻求其他方法要求担任董事。

他在一场电话汇报会上表示:“我看好自己能当选。的确,我会再要求进入董事部(如周六股东大会不通过)。”

“若我当选,我会出席吉隆坡的董事部会议,我期待着。”

不换基金经理安德鲁本周六并不会出席资本投资常年股东大会,但会派拉克西的代表科林出席。

根据大马公司条例,凡持有10%股权的股东,就能够要求召开股东大会。

Laxey says it will keep its 7% stake in iCapital.biz


The Star Online > Business
Friday November 9, 2012
Laxey says it will keep its 7% stake in iCapital.biz

By JOHN LOH
johnloh@thestar.com.my

PETALING JAYA: Hedge fund Laxey Partners Ltd will not sell down its 6.9% stake in iCapital.biz Bhd as it intends to work with the other shareholders to narrow what it considers a yawning gap between the company's share price and net asset value (NAV).

“I am a value investor. I am trained as a professional investor and have been doing this for 20 years,” its co-founder and managing director Andrew Pegge told journalists in a conference call from London, where the firm is based.

“Our approach is not as different as you believe.”

Tan rebukes Laxey and says iCapital.biz has outperformed the KLCI

The Star Online > Business
Friday November 9, 2012
Tan rebukes Laxey and says iCapital.biz has outperformed the KLCI

By YVONNE TAN and TEE LIN SAY
starbiz@thestar.com.my

PETALING JAYA: iCapital.biz Bhd founder Tan Teng Boo has refuted claims made by Laxey Partners Ltd, one of the substantial shareholders of the company, concerning the “substantial discount” that the closed-end fund was trading to its net asset value (NAV) and that its returns have underperformed the FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI.

In a statement , Tan said that Laxey Partners had distorted the facts by focusing only on the short-term which was “its undeniable area of expertise.”

iCapital.biz shareholder Lo also maintains he is independent of Laxey


The Star Online > Business
Friday November 9, 2012
‘Not a hostile takeover’

iCapital.biz shareholder Lo also maintains he is independent of Laxey

By RISEN JAYASEELAN
risen@thestar.com.my

PETALING JAYA: iCapital.biz Bhd shareholder Lo Kok Kee maintains that he is not a nominee of European hedge fund Laxey Partners and that he is acting as a “minority shareholder rights activist”. He also refuted allegations that he was part of a hostile takeover of iCapital.biz.

In an email to StarBiz, Lo said: “I am not a nominee of Laxey. I was nominated by a shareholder of the company to stand as director, not by Laxey.”

中期盈利23.6億聯想又送驚喜


中期盈利23.6億聯想又送驚喜

全球最大PC(個人電腦)商聯想(00992)中期業績再次優於市場預期,總計四至九月的上半財年,股東應佔盈利按年增長20%至3.03億美元(約23.63億港元),每股中期息派4.5港仙。聯想主席兼首席執行官楊元慶昨日表示,有信心以智能手機為主的移動互聯和數字家庭(MIDH)業務可於未來數季取得盈利。

聯想中期業績雖然勝預期,但昨日收市仍跌2.66%,報6.58元。聯想上半財年的PC銷售額仍按年增長14%,似未受平板電腦銷情影響,至於MIDH業務部門的銷售額,則因為於內地為主的智能手機銷售帶動按年急升達到163%。單以第二財季計算,雖然市場整體PC銷量按年下跌8%,聯想第二財季的PC銷售仍錄10.3%的增幅,並為集團連續第十四個季度超越PC市場的平均增長。

Don't Trust Economic Data, Anywhere: Pro


China Economy Had Hard Landing in Q1: Economist


Lee: I Expect Little Economic Change After Election


China's Changing Economic Model


What Does Obama's Win Mean for US Markets?


No Silver Bullet for China's Economy: Pro


Future of the US Economy


ECB in Wait and See Mode


《财经早班车》 美国财政悬崖阴霾重挫纽约股市

《财经早班车》 美国财政悬崖阴霾重挫纽约股市
http://www.sina.com.cn 2012年11月09日 宁夏卫视《财经早班车》

《财经早班车》 瑞银:财政悬崖问题明朗前 美股将持续低迷

《财经早班车》 瑞银:财政悬崖问题明朗前 美股将持续低迷
http://www.sina.com.cn 2012年11月09日 宁夏卫视《财经早班车》

Another Four Years… of Stock Gains?


Fiscal Cliff Countdown


Samsung Unseats Apple


Options Action: Apple's Fall


《财经夜行线》 郭树清:资本市场将为投资者带来稳定回报

《财经夜行线》 郭树清:资本市场将为投资者带来稳定回报
http://www.sina.com.cn 2012年11月08日 宁夏卫视《财经夜行线》

史上頭一遭!歐美iPhone用戶忠誠度下降


美總統大選即將登場!歐羅究竟誰將勝出?


Dangers of the Fiscal Cliff


Friday, November 9, 2012

Astro 股价跌不休影响军心

Astro 股价跌不休影响军心
Created 11/09/2012 - 11:35
(吉隆坡8日讯)Astro(Astro,6399,主板贸服股)自上市以来股价不断承受卖压,导致部分认购股票的雇员人心惶惶,高级管理层已与相关雇员会面,安抚他们的失望情绪。

知情人士表示,公司高级管理层已循众要求召开会议,设法应对和解决雇员们面对的问题。

据了解,有些雇员向金融机构贷款购买股票,但现在公司股价跌破上市发售价每股3令吉,导致他们在无法偿还贷款之余,还得面对金融机构追缴保证金。

因此,Astro要求金融机构在追缴保证金之前,可以放宽偿还期限或降低保证金门槛。

不知售股者身份

Wilmar’s Q3 net profit up 26% to $497m


Wilmar’s Q3 net profit up 26% to $497m

Singapore palm oil producer Wilmar International reported a 26% rise in third-quarter net profit on Friday, with its oilseeds and grains business turning in a profit after two quarters of losses.

Wilmar, whose other businesses include sugar and edible oils, earned US$405.8 million ($497 million) for the three months ended September, up from US$321 million a year earlier and US$117 million in the previous quarter.

Wilmar’s third-quarter result beat the average net profit forecast of US$335 million, based on a Reuters poll of five analysts.

Apple見熊恐再瀉25%


Apple見熊恐再瀉25%
美股周三經歷大震盪,於今年初股價屢創新高的蘋果公司(Apple Inc.)不能幸免之餘,股價由九月份觸及的紀錄高位回落20%,技術上步入熊市。有分析指,蘋果公司面對競爭日漸激烈,加上如iPhone5供不應求及高層大地震等負面新聞,拖累股價向下,而著名債券基金經理岡拉克更唱淡蘋果公司,預測股價明年進一步挫25%。

蘋果公司股價周三收市挫3.8%至558美元的五個月低位,較九月二十一日iPhone5開售當日一度觸及的705.07美元日內紀錄高位回落20%,市值累積蒸發超過1,300億美元(約10,140億港元),令今年累積升幅由最多75%顯著收窄至38%。

蘋果公司股價於昨日美國早段續跌0.97%至552美元。

末日博士麥嘉華:美股應跌50%

末日博士:美股應跌50%
奧巴馬連任美國總統,美股周三急挫逾三百點「贈興」,「末日博士」麥嘉華直言,奧巴馬連任是個災難,股市理應最少下挫50%,預期奧巴馬未必能夠完成四年任期,明年美國經濟會陷入衰退,股市會下挫20%,更戲言投資者要趕快買「機關槍」來保護自己資產,自己則需要一輛坦克。

向來言論大膽的麥嘉華接受彭博社訪問時表示,對奧巴馬連任美國總統感到吃驚,更直言奧巴馬對美國及營商者而言是個「災難」,更質疑他容許極度寬鬆貨幣政策,導致生活成本高漲,又說在有機會推更多妨礙企業招聘與加稅等不利經濟的法例與措施等因素影響下,奧巴馬很可能在四年總統任期完結前,因為醜聞而下台。

美經濟明年勢衰退
他原認為若奧巴馬當選,標指最少會下挫約50%,但標指於奧巴馬當選首日僅下跌約30點。麥嘉華認為,在聯儲局「無限金錢」支撐市場及全球經濟放緩衝擊企業盈利兩項好淡因素角力下,很難判斷未來股市走向,但個人認為最少會下跌20%。

李禮輝:內銀續可平穩增長


李禮輝:內銀續可平穩增長
http://paper.wenweipo.com   [2012-11-09]    
 香港文匯報訊(十八大報道組 涂若奔)中國銀行(3988)行長李禮輝出席「十八大」會議前表示,內地銀行的盈利狀況良好,雖然難以再維持過去的高速增長,但仍能以平穩的速度可持續增長。該行亦是如此,今年業績增速可能較過去放緩一些,但可保持平穩。

不良貸款局限個別行業
 談及市場關注的不良貸款時,李禮輝表示,截至今年9月末,該行的不良貸款較去年同期有所下降,相信第四季會比較平穩,不會發生什麼問題。他稱,今年大部分內地銀行的不良貸款其實都保持穩定,或是有所下降,不良貸款率基本都低於1%,處於「優秀值區間」,並認為「在這個區間略有上升或是下降都是正常的,不會有大的風險問題。」他還透露,目前內地銀行的不良貸款僅局限於個別地區的個別行業,例如老傳統行業和若干新興行業。

 被問及內地利率市場化帶來的影響時,李禮輝未有做出正面評價,但認為今後利率市場化的步伐將會加快。他並稱,國家對利率保持一定程度的管制,和利率的市場化完全可以成為「並行概念」,又以美國為例,稱哪怕是經濟自由如美國,對利率也有管制。

Laxey夥伴矢入主資本投資


Laxey夥伴矢入主資本投資

(吉隆坡8日訊)英國對衝基金Laxey夥伴(Laxey Partners)進入資本投資(ICAP,5108,主要板指數基金)董事局勢在必行,即使本週六(10日)不獲投票,董事經理安德魯佩吉也將再召開會議,尋求成為董事。

 資本投資本週六將召開常年股東大會,會上將針對Laxey夥伴尋求委任3名董事,包括安德魯佩吉、羅國奇(譯音)及劉葉興(譯音)進入董事局展開投票。

 安德魯佩今日于倫敦召開視像會議時重申:“我樂于被選為董事,必然還會再尋求連任董事,資本投資董事局這週六將會有所改變。”

 他雖未能在週六親臨該公司常年股東大會,惟將從Laxey夥伴派出代表柯林到場。

「財政懸崖」不破美恐遭降級

「財政懸崖」不破美恐遭降級

美國總統選舉結果,沒有改變美國政治格局,市場人士認為,今年底出現「財政懸崖」機會率,由之前三成增至逾五成。評級機構惠譽警告,若美國國會未能及時化解「財政懸崖」及提高債務上限,明年或將美國降級。有基金經理表示,若未能解決「財政懸崖」問題,全球金融市場勢動盪,屆時只能減持股票,但基於避險原因,資金諷刺地會流入美債及美元。

股市恐挫千點

另一家評級機構穆迪表示,債務比率穩定下降,是維繫美國評級關鍵,需先觀察可能出現的「財政懸崖」對美國經濟的影響,再考慮是否調整美國的評級展望。

前眾議院民主黨領袖格普哈特告直言,對國會達成協議不寄厚望,預期未來數周民主共和兩黨互不相讓舊戲將再度上演,令市場不安,股市恐急挫1,000點,甚至是2,000點。巴克萊美股策略主管卡普同樣「睇死」政治僵局下難尋求共識,因此大削今年底標指預測,由原來估計的1,395點,調低至1,325點。

內外交困 蘋果股價5月低


內外交困 蘋果股價5月低
技術上步熊市 短期看淡
蘋果面對的外憂內患逐漸加劇,受多個利淡基本因素拖累,股價日前跌至5個月新低,較9月紀錄高位更跌逾兩成,技術走勢上正式步入熊市,券商亦普遍看淡短期前景。

貴為智能手機及平板電腦的老大哥,蘋果一直是三星、亞馬遜(Amazon)及Google等新貴的挑戰對象,所謂「雙拳難敵眾手」,難怪近期連番傳出失利消息。

Galaxy SIII大賣 取代iPhone

市場調查公司Strategy Analytics數據顯示,三星上季合共售出1,800萬部Galaxy SIII,正式取代期內銷量只得1,620萬部的iPhone 4S,成為全球最受歡迎智能手機。

美國墮崖倒數49日


美國未跳崖上市公司先套現 20港企抽水半個月涉680億
【本報綜合報道】美國總統、國會選舉結束,下周起「跛腳鴨會期」隨即展開。國會只剩49天商討解決財政懸崖問題。分析認為兩黨在削赤立場上堅持企硬,要達成共識並非易事,無論財政懸崖問題能否解決,股市大波動在所難免,高盛更預期標普500指數年底前再大瀉15%,下試1200點關口。

分析指,美國一旦墮崖,除自身難保陷入衰退,更會拖冧全球經濟。即使能「大步檻過」,經濟復蘇仍然緩慢,影響企業及消費者對前景的信心。

美國大選結束後,距離明年1月3日新國會議員上任尚有一段日子,現任議員仍要繼續處理政務。不過,由於部份議員即將離任,國會陷入跛腳鴨會期,料不會通過大型法案,今年更特別要面對財政懸崖問題,令市場的不確定因素大增。

對冲錄虧損 周大福盈警

對冲錄虧損 周大福盈警
【本報訊】上市不足一年的周大福(1929)昨晚發盈警,指受金價9月急升影響,令上半年對冲出現賬面虧損,導致毛利率會跌2至3個百分點,加上零售市場增長放緩,預期集團整體經營溢利會倒退。有外資分析員估計,集團是因為「估錯市」,入得過多存貨,變現速度放慢,故令對冲的影響加大。

有外資分析員表示,由於其他珠寶商已先後透露生意放緩,故市場對周大福中期業績都有「心理準備」:「有券商都估周大福中期盈利會倒退,但家佢出通告自爆,即有可能差過預期,今日股價有機會受壓。」他估計,周大福可能是買多了存貨,結果因銷售放緩而「賣唔出」,導致期內因金價急升,而錄得對冲虧損。

據花旗9月底時發表的報告,估計周大福中期盈利將倒退6%至25.3億元,主因是毛利率受壓。

工行:淨息差冇受壓


【本報訊】市場一直憂慮內銀貸款質素,會隨着內地經濟增長放緩而轉差。工商銀行(1398)行長楊凱生昨日出席十八大會議後,向股東大派定心丸,他表示,工行的不良貸款可於本季度維持平穩水平,人行的不對稱減息亦不會令工行淨息差受壓。

末季不良貸款平穩
翻查工行第三季度業績,不良貸款餘額及不良貸款率較6月底「雙降」,至3.73億元人民幣及0.87%,現在加上楊凱生表示,於第四季度可保持平穩。

至於淨息差方面,雖然不少內地銀行都因人行於年內兩次不對稱減息,令存款競爭更激烈之餘,貸款利潤亦更見微薄,造成淨息差收窄局面,楊凱生昨同時表示,減息因素不會對工行淨息差造成重大壓力,暗示工行盈利能力有望保持。

聯想上季多賺12% 勝市場預期中期息增18%

聯想上季多賺12% 勝市場預期中期息增18%

【本報訊】聯想(992)9月止第二季度業績,受惠於收購合併及規模效益,盈利按年上升12.6%至1.62億美元,略高於市場預期的1.58億美元。中期息每股4.5港仙,升18.4%。聯想主席楊元慶爭取於三年後,將集團稅前盈利率推高1個百分點。
記者:周燕芬

面對ipad、Galaxy平板電腦市場熱潮,楊元慶無懼對個人電腦市場的挑戰。他指平板電腦無論是功能和性能方面仍與個人電腦有所距離。而聯想近期推出採用Window 8系統的ideapad yoga產品,就結合了傳統手提電腦與平板電腦的優勢,有觸控功能兼可摺叠變身為平板電腦,被楊元慶盛讚為最佳結合體。

無懼平板電腦挑戰
中銀國際分析師楊賡亦認為,平板電腦以娛樂為主,商業應用功能不強,現時未見能取代傳統個人電腦功能。而新興國家很多消費者仍未擁有過任何電腦,這認為這群消費者第一部購買的電腦仍將以傳統電腦為主;聯想未來的市場仍有很大增長空間。不過他亦預期未來兩年,平板電腦與手提電腦將更趨向融合。亦有市場人士對於聯想流動設備採用window作業系統抱觀望態度,因為這個市場現時由蘋果的iOS和Google的Android所主導。

Next Up for Markets? The Fiscal Cliff

Next Up for Markets? The Fiscal Cliff

President Barack Obama’s re-election could mean a tough road for stocks unless there’s some sign soon that he and Congress will avoid taking the economy and the country off the “fiscal cliff.”

Stock futures were weaker late Tuesday but were off lows as Obama was called the winner in the tight race against Mitt Romney. Futures regained more ground when Romney conceded, removing the chance of a challenge that would cloud the outcome and lead to a period of uncertainty. Democrats also retained control of the Senate, leaving in place a divided Congress.

(Read More: Obama Beats Romney, Wins Re-election as US President)

“I clearly thought that a status quote election was negative,” said Barry Knapp, head of equity portfolio strategy at Barclays. “We’ve had business confidence falling sharply. We’ve had capital spending contract. You can see it in the performance of tech stocks and industrials and in corporate earnings, and I think this is a negative outcome.”

两评级机构对美財政悬崖发出警告


(纽约8日讯)穆迪週三称,美国总统奥巴马的成功连任,为美国清除了一大不確定性因素,但同时,围绕该国长期財政健康状况的担忧却依然縈绕不去。同时,惠誉告诫可能会在明年下调美国评级,除非国会议员们避免財政悬崖並及时提高举债上限。

穆迪当前给予美国的评级为AAA,评级展望为负面。

穆迪週三重申,若美国长期债务问题没有得到解决,那么仍可能下调其评级。

穆迪称,美国政府面临的主要问题仍是两党能否作出妥协,以在中期內稳定並削减联邦政府债务佔国內生產总值(GDP)的比重。

穆迪还称,若政府通过协商还是没能制定出稳定债务的政策,他们就可能將美国信用评级下调一档至Aa1。

价格偏低需求缓慢 马熔锡停印尼经营


价格偏低需求缓慢 马熔锡停印尼经营

(新加坡7日讯)大马熔锡机构有限公司(MSC,5916,工业产品组)将中止其持大部分股权印尼锡矿单位的采锡与熔锡经营,以在一份工作合约届满前,停止偏低价格和缓慢中国需求所带来的亏损。

大马熔锡机构决定在Koba锡矿公司矿物工作合约于明年3月31日届满前,中止这个单位的经营。

该子公司的75%股权是由大马熔锡机构拥有,而其余25%则是属于印尼最大锡矿商Timah集团。

身为全球最大提炼锡矿出口国的印尼,今年宣布了系列新采矿条例,包括限制矿场外资拥有权,在生产10年后不可超过49%。

Lenovo sales jump 13% on strong PC sales


Lenovo sales jump 13% on strong PC sales
04:45 AM Nov 09, 2012
HONG KONG - Chinese personal-computer maker Lenovo Group reported a 13-per-cent increase in profit for the three months through September, as sales remained strong despite a slump in the overall PC industry. Net profit rose to US$162.1 million (S$198.4 million) as revenue for the quarter rose 11 per cent to US$8.67 billion.

Lenovo's solid earnings stand out among the world's major PC makers, most of which are struggling with weak sales amid the global economic slowdown. Demand for desktop and laptop PCs are sluggish in part because more consumers are spending their dollars on new tablet computers and smartphones instead.

Given the changing market environment, Lenovo has been trying to strengthen its offerings of mobile gadgets in China and other emerging markets. Lenovo's revenue from its "mobile Internet and digital home" business segment - which consists mostly of smartphones and tablets - more than doubled in the quarter to US$718 million.

Singapore Strategy : Investing on the margin (CS)


Singapore Market Strategy

 In this note, we look at trends in margins across sectors in Singapore and highlight that most have seen a large erosion over the last two years. We also run screens to pick stocks based on (improving) margin forecasts.

■ Living with low margins: Our analysis of 131 SG companies (ex banks, agri, and with market cap of more than S$500 mn) suggests EBITDA margins have fallen for almost all sectors (other than for healthcare) over the last two years. Some sectors (telecom, cap goods, healthcare) have been able to increase utilisations (asset turns) to compensate, but in aggregate market RoE is almost back to June 2010 levels. In general, sector performance has been linked to EBITDA margin performance (other than for the extremes – healthcare and transportation).

CH Offshore: A strong start, but risks prevail (DBSV)


CH Offshore
HOLD S$0.515
Price Target : 12-month S$ 0.47 (Prev S$ 0.44)
A strong start, but risks prevail

• Strong start to 1Q13, results above
• Operating results indicate strengthening charter market; but conclusion of two high-value charters poses near term earnings risk.
• HOLD for the yield; TP S$0.47

Highlights
Strong start to 1Q13; results above. CHO delivered a strong start to FY13 with core 1Q net profit of US$9.2m (+43% y-o-y), the highest level since 4QFY10. Revenue was up 3% y-o-y on higher fleet utilisation, partially offset by a unit disposed in 3QFY12 to an associate. The outperformance resulted from unexpected short term extensions of two vessels, which had come off their long-term charters in April and July, improved margins and stronger-thanexpected interest and associates’ income. Its balance sheet remains robust with net cash per share of 11.3 US cts, forming 27% of its market cap.

IGB REIT : Opportunity to raise rentals (CIMB)


IGB REIT
Current RM1.32
Target RM1.50
Opportunity to raise rentals

 The press has reported that AEON Co. Ltd will be buying Carrefour’s Malaysian operations. We believe this could be a great opportunity to convert 12.3% of Mid Valley Megamall's NLA into space for specialty tenants with higher rentals.

Maintain EPS, Outperform rating and DDM-based (8% discount rate) target price. A re-rating catalyst could be higher-than-expected rental reversions for 52.9% of Gardens Mall's NLA next year.

What Happened This morning, Bloomberg reported that AEON will be buying Carrefour SA’s Malaysian business for €250m.

ICBC: Stabilising asset quality (DBSV)


ICBC
BUY HK$5.03
Price Target : 12-Month HK$ 6.22 (Prev HK$ 5.69)
Stabilising asset quality

3Q earnings topped forecasts thanks to credit costs and operating cost efficiency
Overdue loans reversed the rising trend and is a big positive
Large banks like ICBC are better bets given better NIM and NPL trends in the near term
Maintain BUY with higher TP of HK$6.22

3Q12 results was above expectations. ICBC reported another solid set of 3Q results, with net profit gaining 15% y-o-y and 1% q-o-q to Rmb62.4bn. This was 9% above our forecast and 3% above consensus. The bank’s 9M12 net profit met 80% of our full year forecast and 82% of consensus full year estimates. The positive earnings surprise largely came from better than expected credit costs and operating costs.

CapitaLand : Investments bearing fruits (Phillip)


CapitaLand Ltd
Target Price (SGD) 3.55
Closing Price (SGD) 3.27
Investments bearing fruits

 CapitaLand is one of Asia's largest real estate companies. Headquartered and listed in Singapore, the company's core businesses in real estate, hospitality and real estate financial services are focused in growth cities in Asia Pacific and Europe.

• 3Q12 results beat expectations with higher revenue of $686.9mn (+13%y-y) and PATMI of $148.5mn (+85.1%y-y)
• Muted residential sales performance from Singapore but China continued to improve
• Maintain Accumulate with higher target price at $3.55

Tiger Airways : Divestment of Tiger Australia (Phillip)

Tiger Airways Holdings Ltd
Target Price (SGD) 0.45
- Previous Target Price (SGD) 0.45
Closing Price (SGD) 0.74
Divestment of Tiger Australia

Tiger Airways is a low cost carrier based in Singapore and Australia. The Group aims to grow its footprint through strategic joint ventures across Asia-Pacific. Tiger Airways
intends to grow its fleet size to 68 by the end of 2015.
• Marginally larger than expected losses
• 7th consecutive quarterly loss for Tiger Australia
• Divestment of Tiger Australia positive
• Still too much to pay for the stock
• Maintain Sell with unchanged TP of S$0.45

Hi-P International: Weak as expected (CIMB)


Hi-P International
Current S$0.75
Target S$0.70
Weak as expected

 Hi-P’s weak set of results, caused by delays in new projects from new and existing customers, has affirmed our view that its turnaround has been pushed back. We believe 2H13 will be a better time to relook at this stock.

3Q12 results came in slightly ahead of our expectations, with 9M12 net profit forming 24% (expect the rest to come in 4Q12) of our forecast and 13% of Bloomberg consensus. With its results briefing happening in the morning (2 Nov 12), we make no changes to our FY12-14 assumptions for the moment, and maintain our Underperform rating and price target (1x CY12 P/BV).

Hyflux: 3Q12 margins improve (OCBC)

Hyflux: 3Q12 margins improve
Fair value    S$1.44
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.03
versus: Current price  S$1.34

• Recovery in margins
• Near-term outlook cautious
• But fundamental demand strong

Hyflux Ltd saw 3Q12 revenue rising 77% YoY to S$155.0m, while net profit also increased 15.1% YoY to S$14.5m. Gross margin also recovered to 41.2% in 3Q12 from 34.5% in 2Q12 and also close to the 43.4% seen in 3Q11. For 9M12, revenue jumped 70% to S$484.4m, meeting 82% of our full-year forecast, while net profit rose 17% to S$39.7m, or 62% of FY12 forecast. Hyflux notes that the current environment remains challenging, but management believes that the fundamental demand for water remains strong, especially in countries like China, India and MENA. We are also keeping our FY12 and FY13 estimates unchanged and are raising our fair value from S$1.35 to S$1.44 as we roll forward our 18x peg to blended FY12/Fy13F EPS. Maintain HOLD; but fresh catalyst could come in the form of a substantial contract win.

Biosensors International Group: Opportune time to accumulate (OCBC)


Biosensors International Group:
Fair value    S$1.70
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.00
versus: Current price  S$1.07

Opportune time to accumulate
• Lowering forecasts pre 2QFY13 results
• Expect continued market share gains
• Valuations still compelling

We lower our FY13/14F revenue forecasts on Biosensors International Group (BIG) by 2.7/4.0%, and our core PATMI projections by 3.7/4.3% as we expect weaker licensing revenues and softer sales growth from Europe. Nevertheless, we believe that BIG remains well-positioned to capture market share from its competitors given continued positive clinical trial data for its flagship BioMatrix™ family of drug-eluting stents. BIG’s recent share price pullback appears to be overdone, in our view. Despite our earnings cut and a lower adopted USD-SGD assumption, we opine that valuations for BIG are still compelling. The stock trades at 11.3x blended FY13/14F core EPS, which is approximately 1.5 SD below its 3-year average forward core PER. Maintain BUY, with a revised fair value estimate of S$1.70, from S$1.81 previously.

CapitaLand: In line with expectations (Goldman)


CapitaLand
Price (S$) 3.27
12 month price target (S$) 3.49
In line with expectations; Sing resi lags, but 4Q shaping up nicely

What surprised us
CapitaLand reported headline net profit of S$148.5mn in 3Q12 (-61.5% qoq, +85.1% yoy). Core net profit (excl. revals) in 9M12 was S$435.2mn, in line at 72% of FY12E with 4Q seasonally strong (9M11 YTD was 61% of FY11 profits). Highlights: (1) Singapore resi sales muted, 70 units sold in 3Q (S$2.4mn/unit) vs. 202 units in 2Q (S$1.9mn/unit) but should pick up in 4Q with new unit launches at Sky Habitat (70 units) and d’Leedon (300 units). (2) China resi sales picked up, 911 units sold in 3Q vs. 812 units in 2Q, on the back of good take up at The Loft and Pinnacle. A further 800 units (Rmb1.8bn) are launch ready. (3) Ascott, its svc resi arm, saw group RevPAR +3% yoy in 3Q, led by China +19% (CDLHT’s 3Q read across, RevPAR for SG fell 4% qoq and 1% yoy, suggests more weakness for SG hotels/svc apts ahead). (4) Subsidiary CMA’s 9M12 revenue rose 35% yoy.

DBS: Above expectations 3Q (OCBC)

DBS:
Fair value    S$15.94
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.56
versus: Current price  S$13.90

Above expectations 3Q
• 3Q earnings exceeded expectations
• Extending its Fixed Income business
• Outlook is still challenging

Summary: DBS Group Holdings posted above expectation 3Q net earnings of S$856m, up 12% YoY or 6% QoQ. The main variance being the sharply lower provisions, which fell by a drastic 76% YoY or 47% QoQ to S$55m in 3Q12. While business challenges remain and management highlighted the weakness from China in 3Q, CEO Piyush Gupta also indicated that the worst appeared to be over, based on the bottoming out of China data. We have adjusted our FY12 earnings to take into account lower provisions, raising our FY12 earnings from S$3252m to S$3385m. Overall, we remain cautious about the outlook for Asia and mindful of the present weak market sentiment which will rein in valuation. We are maintaining our fair value estimate of S$15.94 and our BUY rating.

Rickmers Maritime: 3Q12 results slightly lower than expectation (S&P)

Rickmers Maritime
Price: SGD0.36 Date: October 31, 2012

Results Review
3Q12 results slightly lower than expectation. Rickmers Maritime (RMT) reported 3Q12 revenue of USD36.0 mln (-5.0% YoY) and net profit of USD8.3 mln (-25.5% YoY). The results were slightly lower than our expectations due to a loss on its interest rate swaps.

Lower profitability due to lower revenue and interest swap loss. 3Q12 revenue growth decreased YoY mainly due to reemployment of Kaethe C. Rickmers at a lower daily charter rate. Vessel operating expenses increased 5.3% YoY to USD8.8 mln on revised fixed operating expenses, higher lubricant oil prices and additional insurance and anti-piracy related expense. Finance expenses fell 4.2% YoY to USD10.4 mln on expiry of two interest rate swap contracts. However, there was a non-cash interest rate swap loss of USD0.5 mln in Q312 vs. a profit of USD0.9 mln in prior year.

CAMBRIDGE INDUSTRIAL TRUST:Yet another stable quarter (DMG)


CAMBRIDGE INDUSTRIAL TRUST
Price S$0.665
Previous S$0.660
Target S$0.750
Yet another stable quarter

3Q12 results in-line with expectations. Cambridge Industrial Trust (CIT) just released its 3Q12 results posting gross revenue and net property income of S$22.5m (+8.5% YoY) and S$19.2m (+8.9% YoY) respectively. The increase in revenue is mainly attributed to additional contributions from the acquisitions at 16 Tai Seng Street, 25 Pioneer Crescent and 3C Toh Guan Road East. DPU for the quarter came in at 1.204S¢ (+11.3% YoY), equivalent to 25.1% of our FY12 DPU estimate.

Starhill Global REIT: AEI activity came to fruition (OCBC)


Starhill Global REIT:
Fair value    S$0.84
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.04
versus: Current price  S$0.79

AEI activity came to fruition
• Wisma Atria as key driver
• Portfolio metrics remain sound
• No immediate refinancing needs

Starhill Global REIT (SGREIT) turned in an encouraging set of 3Q12 results yesterday. While we have expected Wisma Atria retail mall to put on a good showing following the completion of asset redevelopment works, the 24.3% increase in NPI for the segment came in stronger than expected, thanks to positive rental reversions and full committed occupancy at the mall. Wisma Atria office segment, we note, also performed well, raking up 15.2% growth in NPI. In addition, overall portfolio occupancy remained very healthy at 99.4%, with a weighted average lease term (by NLA) of 7.3 years. As mentioned in our Sep report, SGREIT had secured the refinancing for its existing A$63m term loan which matures in Jan 2013. With that, SGREIT has no debt refinancing requirement until Sep 2013. We are tweaking our forecasts to factor in stronger rentals at Wisma Atria. This lifts our fair value from S$0.79 to S$0.84. Maintain BUY.

CapitaMalls Asia: 3Q12 results above view (OCBC)

CapitaMalls Asia:
Fair value    S$2.16
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.03
versus: Current price  S$1.81

3Q12 results above view
• 3Q12 results beat expectations
• China and SG retail outlook still firm
• Raise FV estimate to S$2.16

CMA reported 3Q12 PATMI of S$62.4m - up 70.8% YoY mostly due to Minhang and Hongkou contributions and increased management fees. We judge this set of results to be above consensus and our expectations, and 9M12 core PATMI, excluding extraordinary items, now make up 83% of our FY12 forecast, driven by faster than expected revenue growth at Minhang and Hongkou and a S$7.3m QoQ dip in admin expenses as mall-opening costs eased. We expect increased visibility of recurring earnings, as a larger component of CMA’s portfolio becomes operational, and relatively firm retail outlooks in China and Singapore to be positive drivers of its share price ahead. Maintain BUY with an increased fair value estimate of S$2.16 from S$1.85 previously as we update for valuations of REIT holdings and reduce the RNAV discount to par (from 10% previously).

Neptune Orient Lines: Outlook promising (OCBC)

Neptune Orient Lines:
Fair value    S$1.38
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.00
versus: Current price  S$1.17

Outlook promising
• Cost cutting pays off
• Projected FY12 net loss narrows
• Capacity management still key

Neptune Orient Lines (NOL) finally reported a profitable 3Q12 after six consecutive quarterly losses. Its revenue grew 4.0% YoY to US$2.3b (vs. +6% forecast) on higher volumes while its core EBIT improved to US$74m – a much better showing versus–US$72m in 3Q11 and marginal gains of US$16m in the previous quarter. The better performance came largely on the back of significant cost savings from its Efficiency Leadership Programme (ELP) as freight rates remained lacklustre despite the peak season impact. With this improved result, we narrow our net loss projections for FY12 as we anticipate 4Q12 rates to hold up well, capacity management efforts by the industry to continue, and bunker fuel rates to remain capped at current levels. Maintain BUY with an unchanged fair value estimate of S$1.38.

Singapore REITs :How much higher can they go? (CS)

Singapore REITs
How much higher can they go?

 In the past two-three months, S-REITs have experienced a fairly steep yield compression due to the appeal of yield + growth + currency appreciation, collectively offering a total return in the teens. Given the strong price performance, many investors often question if it is time to take profit.

■ Yield compression has led to S-REITs’ re-rating so far. Based on investor feedback, the increased demand for yield in recent months was driven by a shift in risk appetite (due to increased market volatility). Some investors attributed the shift in preference for more visible/steadier returns to the global slowdown. Equity allocation in Singapore has fallen over the years, in favour for more yield-type products, including perpetual securities. So why S-REITs? Investors are mainly excited about the yield + growth + currency appreciation, which offer total returns in the teens.

DBS Group: 3Q12 low quality beat; CEO upbeat on 2013 prospects (CS)


DBS Group
3Q12 low quality beat; CEO upbeat on 2013 prospects

● DBS’ 3Q12 profit of S$856 mn (6% QoQ, 12% YoY) beat both CS and consensus expectations, but was mostly driven by higher investment gains and lower credit costs. But core underlying drivers (NIMs  and loan growth) were weaker than expected.

● Positives: 1) Asset quality of the book continues to be solid, 2)  Group LDR improved to 84% (from 89%). Negatives: 1) Loan book saw shrinkage of 1% QoQ (underlying +1% QoQ), 2) NIMs (-5 bp QoQ) continue to surprise on the downside, 3) Opex was slightly higher than expected driven by staff costs (+3% QoQ).

● Overall, DBS CEO is ‘reasonably upbeat’ about 2013, already seeing some signs of recovery. DBS is budgeting underlying loan growth of ~10% and flat NIMs (from current levels) in 2013. Asset quality continues to be solid, unlikely to add more GP near term.

Laxey引戰火‧資本投資小股東只能二選一‧陳鼎武:他來我走

Laxey引戰火‧資本投資小股東只能二選一‧陳鼎武:他來我走
Created 11/06/2012 - 17:45
(吉隆坡6日訊)資本投資(ICAP,5108,主板封閉式基金組)股權爭奪戰升溫,資本投資董事經理陳鼎武不惜以自身作為賭注,揚言若Laxey夥伴的任何一名“挑戰派"入主董事部,他將和整個基金管理團隊共同呈辭。

Laxey夥伴提名三名代表進駐資本投資董事部,引爆資本投資掀起的股權爭奪戰愈演愈烈,挑戰派和當權派紛紛為本週六的股東大會作好熱身準備,分別發通知書給股東,以尋求股東支持。

挑戰派:收窄資本投資
估值和淨資產值

資本投資當權派在通知書中揚言,若股東讓Laxey夥伴的其中一名候選人順利入局,陳鼎武和基金管理公司Capital Dynamics將全面引退。然而,Laxey夥伴也不甘示弱,以收窄資本投資估值和淨資產值的“議程",企圖攫取股東芳心。

曾淵滄專欄 09.11.12: 美國墮崖機會不大


曾淵滄專欄: 美國墮崖機會不大 - 曾淵滄

美國股市在總統大選結束後的第一天,一點也不給奧巴馬面子,道指居然狂跌312點,正陶醉於熱錢流入的港股也跟着大跌,論下跌的比例,恒指昨日的跌幅還高過道指。

美股下跌的導火線,是評級機構惠譽說,如果美國總統與國會之間無法解決財政懸崖的問題,會把美國AAA的評級向下調,於是,整個華爾街就把焦點集中於這個所謂財政懸崖的問題。

究竟財政懸崖是甚麼東西?簡單的說,是奧巴馬的財政政策得不到共和黨支持,奧巴馬要向富豪徵收非常高的稅,而共和黨議員反對,如果大家都不妥協,便一拍兩散,美國總統提交給國會的財政預算案不能通過,那就等於大家一起跳下懸崖。

CMT and MLT offer stable yields

CMT and MLT offer stable yields
Personal Finance

Written by Loh Chen-Yi  
Friday, 09 November 2012 00:00

SHOPPING-MALL real estate investment trust CapitaMall Trust (CMT) announced a distribution per unit (DPU) of 2.42 cents for 3Q2012 after unveiling its quarterly results on Oct 19. CMT, which is the largest Singapore-based REIT by both asset size and market capitalisation, posted a rise in total revenue of 5.1% to S$167.2 million while net property income (NPI) rose 4.3% to S$112.1 million. The amount available for distribution was actually up 22% y-o-y to S$86.8 million, but with CMT opting to retain S$5.9 million of dividends from an associate during the quarter, the DPU of 2.42 Singapore cents was unchanged from the same period last year.

比亞迪:電動車轉賺

比亞迪:電動車轉賺

【本報訊】比亞迪(1211)主席兼總裁王傳福向內地傳媒報喜,他對《每日經濟新聞》記者稱,今年第四季比亞迪電動車領域可以實現盈利。


王傳福表示,第四季度的盈利,主要是由於公交系統和計程車公司對比亞迪電動車的批量採購。本月4日,比亞迪汽車推出針對計程車及公交大巴市場的「零元購車、零成本、零排放」解決方案。本次比亞迪發佈的電動車推廣計劃分為公交電動化解決方案和計程車解決方案兩部份。

他表示,「雖然(電動車)盈利的額度不大,預計在2014年中國電動車迎來拐點,到那時盈利額度會進一步提升」。

FGV expects reversal in CPO prices soon


FGV expects reversal in CPO prices soon
By RUPA DAMODARAN
bt@nstp.com.my
2012/11/09

KUALA LUMPUR: Felda Global Ventures Holdings Bhd (FGV) is confident that the current low price trend of crude palm oil (CPO) may very soon see a reversal.

CPO prices can reach RM2,800 per tonne within the first quarter of 2013, said head of newly-emerged public-listed FGV, Datuk Sabri Ahmad.

The outlook of various market sources at between RM2,500 and RM2,800 per tonne is a good margin, he said.

“The prices should not be too high or too low as this is not good for the plantation players,” he said at a media briefing here yesterday.

Noble profit misses estimates as agriculture sales decline

Noble profit misses estimates as agriculture sales decline
04:45 AM Nov 09, 2012

Singapore - Noble Group swung to a profit in the third quarter that missed analysts' estimates as revenue from its agricultural business fell.

Net income was US$75.2 million (S$92 million) in the three months ended Sept 30, compared with a loss of US$17.5 million a year earlier. That missed the US$154.6-million mean estimate of seven analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. Sales gained 8.7 per cent to US$22.7 billion.

"The environment for grains and oilseeds remained weak," Noble said. "Corn and soybean prices reversed dramatically during the third quarter, and the China market continued to see poor crush conditions."

Meanwhile, the company, which last year posted its first quarterly loss in 14 years on cotton bets and carbon credits, is currently seeking investment opportunities.

Press Metal 3Q up seven times on tax asset


Press Metal 3Q up seven times on tax asset
Business & Markets 2012
Written by Cindy Yeap of theedgemalaysia.com  
Thursday, 08 November 2012 19:05

KUALA LUMPUR (Nov 8): PRESS METAL BHD []'s net profit for the third quarter (3Q) ended Sept 30, 2012 jumped nearly seven times to RM136.1 million from RM20.1 million, thanks largely to the recognition of a RM149.5 million deferred tax asset.

The taxation boost was from a tax incentive received by a subsidiary, notes to its accounts read.

Operating profits for the three month period fell 7.9% year-on-year to RM43.73 million even as revenue rose 4.7% to RM609.14 million on higher output at its smelter plant. Pre-tax profit was also lower year-on-year at RM20.49 million, down 31.9% from RM30.07 million the same quarter last year "mainly due to lower metal price and higher financing costs", the company said.

Asian shares tumble as US fiscal cliff looms

Asian shares tumble as US fiscal cliff looms
Business & Markets 2012
Written by Reuters  
Thursday, 08 November 2012 12:15

OKYO (Nov 8): Asian shares extended losses on Thursday as investors worried about the fiscal crisis in the United States and the European economy's further deterioration, underpinning the safe-haven dollar and yen as well as US Treasuries on safety bids.

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan slid 0.9%, retreating from a near eight-month high on Wednesday.

South Korean shares and Hong Kong shares led the declines while Australian shares fell 0.9% after all major US stock indexes slumped over 2% overnight.

Japan's Nikkei average dropped 1.3% to a one-week low as the yen firmed, weighing on exporters.

icapital.biz investors should question no-dividend policy


Comment icapital.biz investors should question no-dividend policy
Business & Markets 2012
Written by Cindy Yeap of theedgemalaysia.com  
Thursday, 08 November 2012 16:35

KUALA LUMPUR (Nov 8): Tan Teng Boo — who was once compared to billionaire investor Warren Buffett as fund manager — is up in arms over the attempt by activist investor Andrew Pegge to enter the board of ICAPITAL.BIZ BHD [].

Tan's Capital Dynamics Asset Management Sdn Bhd is the manager of and investment advisor to icapital.biz — a closed-end fund.

In the run-up to a shareholders' meeting this Saturday (Nov 10), Tan declared he was "super angry" with the "short-term mind-set" of Pegge, who co-founded hedge fund Laxey Partners Ltd.

Thai tycoon extends F&N offer to Nov 22

Thai tycoon extends F&N offer to Nov 22

Thai tycoon Charoen Sirivadhanabhakdi has extended his general offer for Fraser and Neave (F&N) by another two weeks, to Nov 22.
The offer price of $8.88 per F&N share remains unchanged.

Charoen, who is making the offer through Thai Beverage Public Co and privately held TCC Assets, had until 5:30pm yesterday to decide whether to extend his offer or let it lapse. The extension was disclosed to the Singapore Exchange at 5:15 pm.

The Thai offer is conditional upon the bloc gaining majority control of F&N. The Thais currently control a 35.7% stake in F&N, including acceptances.

CIMB cuts Biosensors target price


CIMB cuts Biosensors target price

CIMB Research cut its target price for medical device maker Biosensors International Group to $1.79 from $1.82 and kept its ‘outperform’ rating, citing risks of weaker licensing income from Japan and potential price cuts in other countries.

Biosensors shares were down 1.3% at $1.125, and have plunged 21% since the start of the year, compared with the 26% rise in the FTSE ST Mid Cap Index.

Biosensors said on Wednesday its second-quarter net profit rose 22.7% to $28.2 million from a year earlier, helped by higher product revenue.

The brokerage cut its earnings estimates for Biosensors for 2013, but noted that its product profitability remains strong and valuations are at an attractive low level.

美國選舉塵埃落定‧財政懸崖成焦點‧全球股市潰不成軍


美國選舉塵埃落定‧財政懸崖成焦點‧全球股市潰不成軍
Created 11/08/2012 - 17:45

(吉隆坡8日訊)奧巴馬成功連任的消息無法穩軍心,反因財政懸崖的內憂外患,引發全球股市出現災難式的反擊,隔夜美股暴跌313點,創下1年來最大單日跌幅,歐股和亞股全軍覆沒,拖累馬股身臨險境,一度跌逾13點,1630點岌岌可危。

馬股一度跌13點

MIDF研究主管祖基菲利認為,馬股在跌破1640點後已面臨險峻挑戰,惟因相信美股狂瀉只是短期“驚魂記",預見馬股短期不至於跌破下個危險關卡1601點。

奧巴馬連任僅為全球股市帶來一夕的歡騰,投資者擔心奧巴馬之後可能在解決財政懸崖問題上與共和黨展開一場攻堅戰,市場湧現獲利了結賣壓,導致全球股市稍早因奧巴馬勝選引發的漲勢全數吐回。

US Fiscal Woes: Who'll Feel the Pain?


Lenovo Profit Rises 13% in 2Q, Pincus Talks Mobile


Jim Chanos Warns of a Credit Bubble in China


China and Economic Reform: What are the Chances?


Jim O'Neill: Here Is What to Make of China, Now


China's Growth Composition is Changing: Pro


Bank Indonesia to Keep Rates Unchanged : Nomura


《财经早班车》 消费金融成券商资管重仓品种

《财经早班车》 消费金融成券商资管重仓品种
http://www.sina.com.cn 2012年11月07日 宁夏卫视《财经早班车》

《财经早班车》 避险情绪与量化宽松交织 美元指数大起大落

《财经早班车》 避险情绪与量化宽松交织 美元指数大起大落
http://www.sina.com.cn 2012年11月07日 宁夏卫视《财经早班车》

《财经早班车》 美众议长 两党需就避开财政悬崖寻求共识

《财经早班车》 美众议长 两党需就避开财政悬崖寻求共识
http://www.sina.com.cn 2012年11月08日 宁夏卫视《财经早班车》

Apple Enters Correction Territory


What Will China's Election Mean for Its Economy?


《财经夜行线》 奥巴马连任提振亚太股市

《财经夜行线》 奥巴马连任提振亚太股市
http://www.sina.com.cn 2012年11月07日 宁夏卫视《财经夜行线》

Thursday, November 8, 2012

Five Reasons To Sell Apple, Now

Five Reasons To Sell Apple, Now
Want to get properly attacked by the lurking hordes of trolls? Then simply jump online and let it be known you think Apple’s stock price is too high. The Web trolls will find you, for sure.

On April 21, I wrote a piece called, Five Signs That Apple Is A Bubble. As I wrote, the company was trading at US$600 a share. By the time my article was posted on Forbes.com, the share price was down to US$570. Yet two days later, the stock was up to US$615.

A few weeks later on May 14, I wrote another piece called, Four More Reasons Why Apple Is A Bubble, when the tech giant had fallen to US$562.

More opprobrium was to follow.

第三季載客率跌‧亞航9個月料只賺3.8億

第三季載客率跌‧亞航9個月料只賺3.8億
Created 11/06/2012 - 19:11
(吉隆坡6日訊)亞洲航空(AIRASIA,5099,主板貿服組)第三季載客率下滑,分析員看淡即將出爐的9個月業績,甚至估計向來強勁的第四季銷售也無法力挽全年業績疲弱的狂瀾。

稅前盈利料減370萬

興業研究表示,該行和市場預測亞航的全年稅前盈利分別達7億4千670萬令吉和8億7千340萬令吉,該行預期亞航9個月核心稅前盈利僅有3億7千萬至3億8千萬令吉,分別是該行和市場估計的50至51%和42至44%。

該行補充,雖然第四季的業績表現向來強勁,但相信無法帶動全年交出亮眼的成績單。

KRIS資產股東或套利‧怡保花園產託股價蒙陰影


KRIS資產股東或套利‧怡保花園產託股價蒙陰影
Created 11/07/2012 - 19:08
(吉隆坡7日訊)由於掌握KRIS資產(KASSETS,6653,主板產業組)股東以低價取得怡保花園產托(IGBREIT,5227,主板產業投資信托組)股票,分析員認為,若這些股東繼續套利,可能造成怡保花園產托股價短期難逃橫擺宿命。

不過,分析員指出,怡保花園產托的零售空間擴增、保薦人注入資產等潛在利好,有望提振該公司的中長期展望。

馬銀行研究表示,KRIS資產分拆怡保花園產托上市時,其股東獲得分配的股票每股售價為1令吉,比較怡保花園產托現有價位擁有可觀溢價,成為他們套利的最大誘惑,恐怕影響怡保花園產托的短期股價表現。

日本永旺集團(AEON)上週洽購大馬家樂福(Carrefour),投資者擔心後者的谷中城霸市可能受到影響。不過,由於永旺集團目前無意關閉任何家樂福霸市,投資者暫時可放下心頭大石。

業績亮麗‧政府續購副廠藥‧發馬前景可期

業績亮麗‧政府續購副廠藥‧發馬前景可期
Created 11/07/2012 - 19:09
(吉隆坡7日訊)發馬(PHARMA,7081,主板貿服組)首9個月錄下淨利6千960萬令吉,超越市場預期,豐隆研究認為在保健需求與人口老齡化乃至政府繼續購買副廠藥,進而減輕財務負擔前提下,其前景亮麗可期。

分析員說,大馬政府將會繼續購買副廠藥(其特許經營業務),進而減輕保健開銷,這對發馬的藥劑業前景光明。

該行說,在暢銷藥(Blockbuster Drugs)的專利期過後,在預見副廠藥或學名藥(Generic Drug)需求殷切的當兒,發馬也投資或加強研發新產品群。

“若能在非特許經銷領域和私人界攫取市佔,發揮收購案的協同效應與有效營運策略,再加外匯利好,可對發馬發揮利好效果。"

馬熔錫暫停印尼採錫業務


馬熔錫暫停印尼採錫業務
Created 11/08/2012 - 10:17
( 新加坡、印尼‧雅加達7日訊)馬熔錫機構(MSC,5916,主板工業產品組)屬下印尼採錫公司的合約即將到期,受錫價疲弱、中國需求減緩影響,該公司決定暫停這項開採和提煉業務。

該公司旗下PT Koba Tin的採礦合約將在明年3月31日到期。該公司握有這家公司的75%股權,餘下25%則由印尼最大錫商PT Timah擁有。

印尼是全球最大精煉錫出口國,該國今年發佈一系列新採礦條例,包括限制外資在營運10年的礦場中的持股不可超過49%。雖然印尼較早修改部份條例,但依然維持這項外資持股限制。

奧巴馬連任‧政策照跑‧豐隆:宜採抗跌策略


奧巴馬連任‧政策照跑‧豐隆:宜採抗跌策略
Created 11/08/2012 - 10:12
(吉隆坡7日訊)隨著美國總統奧巴馬成功連任,豐隆資產管理首席執行員吳清豐認為,全球市場可暫時鬆一口氣,意味著奧巴馬之前推行的政策將如常進行,但建議投資者保持抗跌性投資策略。

他指出,奧巴馬政府連任令一切“事務"如常,包括伯南克繼續出任聯邦儲備局主席、持續推行開放式資金及債券購買計劃,並激勵市場對股票及固定收益的風險承擔。

不過,由於美國推行倡導削減政府開銷及提昇徵稅的“財政懸崖",相信風險資產將籠罩在不穩定的局勢中,奧巴馬連任的美好感覺也將迅速消散。

從市場策略來看,吳清豐建議投資者持續抱持抗跌性投資策略,因為“財政懸崖"計劃推動的任何措施很可能會導致美國經濟成長減速。

比澳门大两倍 云顶料参与韩赌城计划

比澳门大两倍 云顶料参与韩赌城计划
Created 11/08/2012 - 12:08
(吉隆坡7日讯)韩国仁川市属意打造能与澳门和美国拉斯维加斯匹敌的赌城,分析员预测,云顶(Genting,3182,主板贸服股)将把握此次机会,将赌城版图扩至韩国。

韩国仁川市日前宣布,计划投资2900亿美元(约8833亿令吉)打造集观光、购物和博彩中心于一身的发展计划“8City”,面积相当于澳门的3倍。

不仅如此,韩国政府日前修订“经济自由区特别法”,放宽外资开设赌场的条件,消除他们投资障碍。

丰隆投资研究指出,早前与云顶管理层会面后,得悉集团正瞄准多个潜在海外市场,尤其特别看重韩国市场。

金股匯V彈變倒插


金股匯V彈變倒插
奧巴馬連任美國總統為金融市場帶來曇花一現的短暫亢奮,倫敦現貨金創兩個月來最長升浪、歐元兌美元錄得一周最大漲幅後齊倒跌,美股周三顯著低開,港股美國預託證券(ADR)跟隨急挫;而俗稱恐慌指數的VIX曾漲4.32%,顯示避險情緒再度升溫,美國十年期國債創逾一周最大漲幅後續高企。「金磚四國之父」奧尼爾接受本報訪問時稱,若民主共和兩黨能就財政懸崖達成共識,美國經濟前景仍樂觀,預期可增長2至3%。

奧尼爾:美經濟仍樂觀
奧巴馬連任意味着聯儲局主席伯南克續任下個任期有轉機,貨幣政策前景不明朗因素消除下,投資者避險情緒減退,特別是在奧巴馬發表勝利宣言後,道指期貨、歐元、紐約期油均漲至全日高位;亞股、亞幣同時受惠,MSCI亞太指數尾段漲0.7%,當中南韓股市以全日最高位收市,澳洲股市全日漲0.7%;MSCI新興市場指數急漲0.7%,創三周最大漲幅;亞幣指數尾段漲0.2%,創一周最大單日漲幅,當中印度盧比及韓圜最標青,印度盧比飆0.8%,韓圜創十四個月新高。

此外,美國國庫債券價格則受追捧,當中十年期美債勢創五個月最大漲幅。孳息率方面,美國十年期國庫債券孳息跌12點子,低見1.63厘;美國兩年期國庫票據孳息率跌4點子至0.26厘,為十月十六日來低位。

領匯好賺派息多12%

領匯好賺派息多12%

領匯(00823)公布截至本年九月底止半年業績,物業收入淨額增10.5%至22.56億元,當中可分派收入增14.4%至16.24億元,每基金單位中期分派0.7108元,同比增12.6%。續租租約加租幅度大增4.4個百分點至25.9%,有分析認為,這是因為早兩三年資產提升(AEI)工程後所帶來的成果,惟後續翻新的商場規模較細,相信未來加租幅度回落至約20%。

十大商場呎租52.7元

受業績刺激,領匯昨日股價再創五十二周新高,單日漲2.19%至39.6元。

領匯執行董事兼行政總裁王國龍表示,每次調整加租幅度,都估量過商戶的承受能力,他指過去六個月,旗下商戶營業額增11.6%,雖然環比增約1個百分點,租金只佔商戶總成本約10%。

而截至九月底止的六個月,領匯總收益按年增10.7%至31.97億元,物業收入淨額增10.5%至22.56億元,上半年整體平均每月租金環比增3.9%至每方呎37.2元,租用率為93.2%。當中按估值排列首十大物業的零售收益佔總零售收益25.8%,十大商場平均每月租金為每平方呎52.7元。

美難題大堆 「財政懸崖」最惡搞


美難題大堆 「財政懸崖」最惡搞

奧巴馬順利連任美國總統,但真正考驗尚在後頭,首要任務是避免規模6,070億美元的「財政懸崖」衝擊當地經濟,稅制改革、削赤減債、財長蓋特納的繼任人選和聯儲局主席伯南克的去向同樣是市場焦點。

兩黨態度更強硬

倘白宮和國會未能「傾掂數」,加稅及削減開支措施將於明年一月自動生效,形成「財政懸崖」。觀望換屆令磋商停滯不前,若決策者合作化解危機,有助促進經濟增長和企業招聘活動;相反,普遍經濟師警告美國勢重陷衰退。

景順首席經濟師祈連活指出,即使奧巴馬成功連任,美國經濟仍僅能繼續保持緩慢復甦,滙豐大中華區首席經濟學家屈宏斌更明言,明年美國經濟增長將因此減少1個百分點。

Laxey欲入主資本投資董事局 陳鼎武冀股東謹慎投票

Laxey欲入主資本投資董事局 陳鼎武冀股東謹慎投票

(吉隆坡7日訊)資本投資(ICAP,5108,主要板指數)董事經理陳鼎武今日再重申,一旦Laxey夥伴(Laxey Partners)代表加入資本投資董事局,他將“認真考慮”退出;並表示希望股東謹慎投票。

 資本投資將在本月10日(週六)舉行第8屆常年股東大會,安德魯佩吉、羅國奇(譯音)及劉葉興(譯音)被提名為董事。

 陳鼎武的資威資產管理(CDAM)昨日在一項媒體發佈會上表示,3名獲提名者的目的不僅與資本投資長期目標有所衝突,更不利于基金未來持續性。

 陳鼎武今日發佈文告指出:“如果三人中的任何一人于第8屆常年股東大會上被投選為董事,資威資產將十分認真的考慮辭去其基金經理一職,因為我們的理念、價值及目標與他們完全不同。”

馬熔錫停止印尼錫礦業務


馬熔錫停止印尼錫礦業務

(新加坡7日訊)馬熔錫(MSC,5916,主要板工業)因錫價下跌和中國需求放緩等因素,將停止在印尼的主要錫礦業務,包括採礦與精煉等工作。

 馬熔錫停止業務主要考量因素在于持股75%的印尼子公司Koba Tin的採礦特許經營權不獲續約,合約將在明年3月底截止。

 世界最大的精煉錫出口國印尼,在今年宣布了一系列新的採礦條例,包括限制外國業者不能擁有超過49%礦山的所有權。

 這項條例並不影響這個星期所宣布的國家採礦審查的部份。

 馬熔錫表示,由于Koba Tin的持續虧損,公司評估可行性,決定停止採礦與進行精煉等工作,以便進一步降低虧損,直到該特許經營權獲得續約。

為催谷業績懶理社會責任 領匯部署狂加租

為催谷業績懶理社會責任 領匯部署狂加租

【本報訊】昨日公佈業績後股價創新高的領匯(823),為再催谷業績,竟然放下社會企業責任,計劃瘋狂加租;行政總裁王國龍昨在業績會上表示,即使環球經濟不明朗及本地零售增長放緩,但仍對下半年業務及租金收入持樂觀態度,並且對承擔社會責任隻字不提,更指租金仍有上升空間。
記者:陳新政

領匯監察發言人李翠琼表示,領匯以其極度強勢,無論經濟環境如何惡劣,絕對有能力加租,因為大部份商場都引進大型連銷經營店舖,租金貼近市場價格,而裝潢追得上私營商場。她又留意到,領匯為提高回報,有意將某些地區打造成主題商場,「赤柱商場做到畀鬼佬用,屯門三聖村就整成海鮮漁港咁,順利邨同新田圍邨就變成老人院咁,我覺得領匯做生意幾聰明。其實某啲旺區加租賺錢都合理,但一啲貧窮屋邨,好似慈雲山咁,又勁多老人家,狂加租要佢地捱買貴嘢就唔應該。」

符商戶可承擔水平
事實上,領匯公佈的新續租平均三年租約的租金升幅,由去年底的21.7%上升至9月底的25.9%,上升4.2個百分點,貼近私人市場。若以王國龍的「說法」,租金每年平均加幅已由約去年的7%升至現時每年平均8.5%。但同期的商戶銷售額增幅,僅由去年底的10.7%升至11.6%,王國龍認為加幅是商戶可承擔的水平,並解釋指,「租金只喺佔商戶成本約15%,咁加租幅度升4.2個百分點,只係將佢哋個成本既一成半升少少,但幫到佢地100%既營業額上升咗11.6%,係有差別嘅。」不過,他忽略了營業額上升不代表純利會同步上升這個因素。

Tan: iCapital.biz to oppose nomination of 3 directors


The Star Online
 Business
Published: Tuesday November 6, 2012 MYT 11:55:00 AM
Updated: Tuesday November 6, 2012 MYT 6:12:34 PM

Tan: iCapital.biz to oppose nomination of 3 directors (Update)

By John Loh

KUALA LUMPUR: Capital Dynamics, the fund manager for Malaysia's only closed-end fund iCapital.biz Bhd, would "seriously consider" resigning if any of the three people nominated to the firm's board last Friday get a seat.

iCapital.biz, which is managed by seasoned fund manager Tan Teng Boo, will oppose the attempt by Andrew Pegge, Lo Kok Kee and Low Nyap Heng to be elected as directors at its AGM here this Saturday.

Capital Dynamics had yesterday sent a letter to shareholders by courier explaining that it would quit as both the fund manager and investment adviser to iCapital.biz should Pegge, Lo or Low succeed.

StarHub Ltd: HOLD with higher S$3.75 FV


StarHub Ltd:
Fair value    S$3.75
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.20
versus: Current price  S$3.65

HOLD with higher S$3.75 FV
• 3Q12 earnings 16.5% above forecast
• Expects margin pressure in 4Q12
• Valuations are not compelling

Again, slightly better-than-expected results from StarHub Ltd, with 3Q12 earnings coming in some 16.5% ahead of our forecast, aided by a strong recovery in service EBITDA margin to 33.9% (versus 32.2% in 2Q12). It has maintained its quarterly dividend of S$0.05/share (payable on 23 Nov). For 9M12, revenue grew 4.0% to S$1767.5m, meeting 73.6% of our full-year forecast, while net profit jumped 21.8% to S$271.4m, or 83.2% of our FY12 estimate. As the margin improvements came in ahead of our expectations, we are bumping up our FY12 earnings forecast by 7.5% (FY13 by 4.6%). Our DCF-based fair value also inches up from S$3.47 to S$3.75. While we continue to like StarHub for its defensive earnings, we think that its valuations are not compelling (trading close to 2 standard deviations above its 3-year average EV/EBITDA) after its strong YTD outperformance. Hence we maintain our HOLD rating.

Power Root - Growing Strong


Power Root -
Price Target : 1.10
Last Price : 1.00
Growing Strong

INVESTMENT MERIT
- Thus far, Power Root has gained 11.1% since our recommendation on 14/08/12 and recorded its highest gain of 24.4% when it reached a 52-week high at RM1.12 on 05/09/12.

- Brief comments on 1HFY13 results. The company recorded 1H13 revenue of RM133.3, which represented a commendable increase of 19.2% YoY. The group also doubled its net profit from RM8.3m in 1H12 to RM16.9m in 1H13, which was partly due to a c.RM2.1m one-off gain on the disposal of a property. Excluding this exceptional item, the net  profit still came in ahead of our FY13 full year projection of RM24.5m, underpinned by an increase in both local and export sales from the FMCG business.

Ping An Insurance : A solid quarter (DBSV)


Ping An Insurance
BUY HK$60.50
Price Target : 12-Month HK$ 72.50
A solid quarter

3Q net income rose 21% - in line
Investment income recovered steadily, although impairments were rising
Core insurance underwriting results were higher
Maintain BUY on improving investment and underwriting performance; TP HK$72.50

3Q net income increased by 21%, as expected. Ping An’s 9M12 net income rose 11% y-o-y, implying a 21% increase in 3Q, which was supported by performance from the core insurance underwriting segment.

Giordano International: Look beyond 3Q (CIMB)

Giordano International
Current HK$6.44
Target HK$8.14
Look beyond 3Q

 Giordano’s 3Q12 operational data were dragged down by the weak consumer sentiments in China and Taiwan. But the Asia-Pacific region turned in an outstanding performance. We are delighted by the recovery of Giordano’s gross margin and expect it to hold steady in 4Q.

9M12 sales came in slightly below estimate while gross margin recovered as per our expectations. We downgrade EPS to reflect the slower sales growth. But we lift our target price by 12% as we roll it over to end-CY13 while still basing on 13x P/E for CY14 (15% discount to 10-year average). We reiterate our Outperform rating, underpinned by its 6% dividend yield.

Singapore Airlines: Buys 10% of Virgin Australia (DMG)


Singapore Airlines: Buys 10% of Virgin Australia
 (TRADING BUY, S$10.60, S$11.67)

THE BUZZ
SIA announced that it has purchased a 10% strategic stake in Virgin Australia for AUD105m. Virgin Australia will use the proceeds to buy 60% of Tiger Australia from Tiger Airways Holdings for AUD105m and also regional carrier Skywest Airlines in a cash and stock offer valued at about AUD95m. Under the subscription agreement, SIA will  have anti-dilution rights to maintain 10% interest in Virgin Australia, in the event of an equity issuance from another transaction announced by Virgin Australia on 30 Oct 2012. Australian Foreign Investment Review Board (FIRB) approval has been obtained for the share purchase, which is expected to be completed on 16 Nov 2012.

Tiger Airways: Positive on Aussie tie-up (DMG)


Tiger Airways: Positive on Aussie tie-up
(BUY, S$0.74, TP: S$0.85)

Tiger reported 2Q13 net loss of S$18m, in-line with expectations. Revenue grew 79% yoy to S$197m on the back of increased capacity (+42.1%),  stronger yields (+21.2%) and higher load factor (+2.9ppts). For 1H13, net loss has narrowed to S$32m. The Group has proposed the sale of a 60% stake in Tiger Australia to Virgin Australia  for a cash sum of A$35m (S$44m). The estimated gain from the deal is S$120m and we have assumed it to be completed in end-FY13.

We are positive on the sale given that it will help strengthen the Group's footing in Australia. We believe the price paid by Virgin to be fair given Tiger Australia's book value was a negative S$222m as at Sep2012. We upgrade the stock from a Neutral to a Buy with a new higher TP of S$0.85 pegged at 1.8x FY14F P/B which implies a target FY14F P/E of 13.5x.

Fortune REIT: Asset enhancement initiatives to augment growth (DBSV)


Fortune REIT
BUY HK$6.09
Price Target : 12-Month HK$ 6.78 (Prev HK$6.65)
Asset enhancement initiatives to augment growth

• 3Q12 distribution income was 2% higher than our forecast
• Encouraging growth led by healthy rental reversions and contributions from new malls
• Ongoing asset enhancement initiatives to spice up future growth
• BUY with revised TP of HK$6.78

Encouraging growth led by healthy rental reversion and contributions from new malls . Fortune REIT’s 3Q12 distribution income grew 23% to HK$139m. The growth was led by higher rental revenue, partially offset by increased interest expenses. Total revenue was 23% higher at HK$285m, thanks to positive rental reversions and additional contributions from Belvedere Square and Provident Square acquired in Feb 2012. YTD, portfolio rental reversion remained strong at 20.1% upon renewals.

Warren E. Buffett(沃伦•巴菲特)
Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful
别人贪婪时我恐惧, 别人恐惧时我贪婪
投资只需学好两门课: 一,是如何给企业估值,二,是如何看待股市波动
吉姆·罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)
“错过时机”胜于“搞错对象”:不会全军覆没!”
做自己熟悉的事,等到发现大好机会才投钱下去

乔治·索罗斯(George Soros)

“犯错误并没有什么好羞耻的,只有知错不改才是耻辱。”

如果操作过量,即使对市场判断正确,仍会一败涂地。

李驰(中国巴菲特)
高估期间, 卖对, 不卖也对, 买是错的。
低估期间, 买对, 不买也是对, 卖是错的。

Tan Teng Boo


There’s no such thing as defensive stocks.Every stock can be defensive depending on what price you pay for it and what value you get,
冷眼(冯时能)投资概念
“买股票就是买公司的股份,买股份就是与陌生人合股做生意”。
合股做生意,则公司股份的业绩高于一切,而股票的价值决定于盈利。
价值是本,价格是末,故公司比股市重要百倍。
曹仁超-香港股神/港股明灯
1.有智慧,不如趁势
2.止损不止盈
成功者所以成功,是因为不怕失败!失败者所以失败,是失败后不再尝试!
曾淵滄-散户明灯
每逢灾难就是机会,而是在灾难发生时贱价买股票,然后放在一边,耐性地等灾难结束
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