Saturday, November 3, 2012

航运低迷短期内难见曙光


A股低迷散戶股神輸到怕


A股低迷散戶股神輸到怕
A股低迷,內地股民差不多對股市死心,就算有深圳散戶股神之稱嘅李修辰,都話輸到怕。不過,佢都算好彩,事關佢年前患病要休養,將所有股票平倉,雖然即時出現損失,但睇番今日A股表現,早沽好過遲沽,可以話避過一劫。

講開呢位散戶股神,佢喺家鄉西安讀數學,所以數口特別精,約十年前隻身嚟到深圳,識得個老闆打本畀佢炒股,加上投資有道,幾年後炒得第一桶金,於是開始全職炒股生涯。

呢幾年A股咁差勁,李修辰炒股成績固然唔好,喺佢身邊嘅朋友,更加蝕到入肉,至於蝕幾多,佢話都唔想喺別人傷口灑鹽,所以都冇追問。但從近日佢喺證券行所見,行內異常冷清,好多以往活躍炒股嘅老友已經唔見咗,可見人人輸到怕。

苹果或许将倒退回2010年


苹果或许将倒退回2010年

随着苹果跌势复现,该公司股价终于跌破了600美元。也许你可以将之归咎为最近苹果内斗的公开化,即蒂姆·库克(Tim Cook)赶走了斯科特·福斯戴尔(Scott Forstall)。在史蒂夫·乔布斯(Steve Jobs)临终前辞去苹果最高职位时,福斯戴尔是库克接任这一职位的竞争对手。又或者是,最近苹果季报未达预期揭露出更深层次的问题以及竞争对手来势汹汹。

媒体报道指出,福斯戴尔跟名声在外的乔布斯一样雄辩和执拗。近来,福斯戴尔因Sir这款时不时“神经错乱”的语音助理以及惨不忍睹的苹果地图应用而饱受诟病,后者是随新iPhone 5一道发布的。

另一位被炒鱿鱼的人是库克自己请来负责零售店业务的约翰·布罗维特(John Browett),此时距离布罗维特离开英国Dixon Stores公司到苹果任职不过数月时间。布罗维特试图采取一些削减成本的措施,但遭到零售店员工的反对。据报道称,他未能很好地融入苹果的企业文化。显然,布罗维特是没能完成好库克布置的工作,他自然要卷铺盖走人。

全球热钱目前狂涌香港


全球热钱目前狂涌香港
作者徐斌撰文:今天的香港,事实上是中国的金融大超市,出售的是英国人留下的经验与规则,它面向全球,但主要消费者却是大陆的投资人

全球热钱目前狂涌香港,持续29年的港币汇率机制已经启动,香港金管局两周内第五次卖出港元。

据香港《信报》称,“在港元再度触及强方兑换保证上限后,金管局最新再向市场买入美元沽出港元,变相向银行系统注资27.13亿港元。到11月1日,银行体系结余将升至1657亿元。”。

香港维持港币的联系汇率机制,也是迫不得已。因为香港是国际自由港,资金来往自由,不仅不能搞资本管制,而且也要让国际投资者对当地货币具有完全的信心。而维持全球投资者信心的最好办法,就是让港币必须挂在美元上。

十八大后A股会面临哪些风险?


十八大后A股会面临哪些风险?

傅峙峰

中国共产党第十八次全国代表大会(以下简称“十八大”)将在11月8日召开。9月底“十八大”确定召开日期到会议结束这段期间,市场普遍认为是中国股市较好的反弹契机,因为期间的维稳要求,会令负面消息和因素最大程度地减少,即便反弹动力不足,阻力也会相对减少。

过去三周,高举维稳大旗展开的反弹已经出现,但受制于实质性的基本面和盈利改善,市场反弹空间并不大。上证综指自1999点起,反弹止步于2138点,随后还出现了一波比较明显的回落。

在弱市中,投资者对市场的波动十分敏感,近期的市场回落已经令投资者开始担忧维稳行情后的市场风险。那么,“十八大”之后,中国股市具体会面临哪些风险呢?

東亞資本水平偏低 大行籲沽


東亞資本水平偏低 大行籲沽
美國聯儲局日前批准東亞銀行(00023)第三大單一股東日本三井住友銀行提出增持東亞持股的申請,令市場關注李氏家族於東亞的控制權會否受到動搖。有大行報告更指,東亞的資本水平及盈利能力低於同業,對其前景不表樂觀,三井住友銀行有意增持東亞,或許是東亞配股籌資的「前奏」。

雖然東亞主席李國寶昨日已否認會向三井住友配股或增發股份,惟摩根士丹利發報告指出,這或是東亞配售股份的「前奏」,因為東亞的普通股一級資本充足率只得8.7%,遠低於同業水平,配股集資將是其中一個可行方案,該行又預料增持股權計劃將於月中至明年一月底期間落實。不過,鑑於東亞的資本水平仍然屬於偏低,及盈利能力相對較弱,大摩維持其「減持」評級。

德銀:股價跑輸同業
德銀指,消息惹來東亞可能被收購的揣測,又指東亞股價本年內沒有起色,跑輸同業,其中恒生銀行(00011)股價上升29%,中銀香港(02388)亦上升31%,而同期東亞升幅僅及單位數。

股價波動‧大股東售股影響情緒‧亞洲媒體基本面不變


股價波動‧大股東售股影響情緒‧亞洲媒體基本面不變
Created 11/02/2012 - 19:02

(吉隆坡2日訊)亞洲媒體(AMEDIA,0159,創業板貿服組)股價劇烈波動和大股東賣股消息傷害投資者情緒,惟達證券認為該股基本面不受影響,未來4年年均複合盈利成長率料達29.7%,上調股票評級至“守住"。

達證券說,亞洲媒體近期股價異常波動,對投資情緒影響負面,其大股東兼首席執行員拿督黃世凱大量賣股加深投資者憂慮,但相信該公司業務如常。

該行表示,黃世凱10月初宣佈把原有41.5%持股降低至30%,影響投資者對亞洲媒體的信心,雖然無法向他確認售股用意,但不排除是遭逼倉,這是因為公司擁有人甚少會把持股減少至低於33%水平。

巴菲特加碼押注美國房市

巴菲特加碼押注美國房市
Created 11/02/2012 - 19:18

(美國‧紐約2日訊)投資大師巴菲特掌舵的波克夏公司(Berkshire)加碼押注美國房市復甦,同意與布魯克菲資產管理公司(Brookfield)成立新合資企業,並掛上波克夏的金字招牌來營運。

根據雙方的合資協議,波克夏的美國住宅服務公司(Home Services of America)將成為一系列連鎖不動產經紀商的最大股東,訂明年以“波克夏住宅服務公司"(Berkshire Hathaway Home Services)展開營運。

美國住宅服務公司首席執行員佩提耶(Ron Peltier)說:“我們在全美各地面臨存貨嚴重短缺,房價回漲加上超低利率,讓我們看到房市持續好轉。"

美國住宅服務公司是美國第二大專業住宅服務經紀業者,1999年隨著中美能源(Mid American)一起被波克夏收購,隨後靠著併購各地不動產經紀業者而逐漸壯大。

專家:全球若走軟‧大馬經濟難獨善其身



專家:全球若走軟‧大馬經濟難獨善其身
Created 11/03/2012 - 12:38

(吉隆坡2日訊)國際金融市場專家沙達吉達斯指出,一旦全球經濟走軟,相信大馬經濟也難獨善其身,影響程度也將胥視大馬政府如何作出反應和祭出應急措施而定。

他表示,由於歐美、中國及日本佔全球經濟逾80%比重,一旦遭遇經濟放緩現象,作為小國及出口導向的大馬將肯定受到負面衝擊。

有必要改善資源使用效率

無論如何,他今日在一項由大馬投資銀行協會舉辦的講座會說,大馬本身也擁有一定的優勢,包括擁有豐富的天然資源,如石油及棕油,預料在發生任何劣勢時可起一定緩衝作用。

他指出,大馬有必要改善資源使用效率,因為它往往投資在回報率相對低迷的領域。

购物商场翻新战:商场换装引人潮


购物商场翻新战:商场换装引人潮
Created 11/02/2012 - 15:06

刚发布不久的环球购物城市指数排行榜中,吉隆坡竟然打败了许多购物朝圣地,如上海、北京、新加坡、曼谷、首尔、东京和台北等,排在第二位,仅次于香港。

这个消息令人振奋,但同样反映着我国购物商场的竞争将越来越激烈。

目前,国内各大购物商场最忙的是翻新,对一些业主来说,翻新是营造更佳的竞争优势,但对一些业主来说,这翻新战,等同翻身战。

在房地产市场中,购物商场这一块向来不大吸引市场目光的沃土,最近却热闹得不得了。

不少外资列队到我国来收购商场,推高了大型投资交易;同一时间,国内企业也大手笔收购,所以购物商场交易最近特别多。

购物商场翻新战:外资激进收购 李嘉诚买不停


购物商场翻新战:外资激进收购 李嘉诚买不停
Created 11/02/2012 - 14:54

大马的产业价格普遍比其他区域市场来得低,吸引不少外资进驻。

外资钟情于我国产业,已经不是新鲜事,除了收购,不少外资也积极与本地企业联营开发新计划。

例如香港首富李嘉诚就在我国买了几个商场,澳洲Lend Lease已启动在我国的第二项联营计划。

去年,香港首富李嘉诚便把投资焦点转向大马购物中心市场,通过长江集团在大马购物中心市场大展拳脚。

香港购物中心租金 全球最贵

香港购物中心租金 全球最贵
Created 11/02/2012 - 14:15

中国跻身全球第二大市场后,消费能力和追崇品牌与奢华产品的实力,吓坏了不少老外。

但要抢进这个市场战情非常激烈,不光是中国内陆的零售广场租金和行情大涨,香港作为欧美品牌打入中国市场的兵家必争之地,其购物中心租金已推至世界之最。

虽然全球经济复苏步伐不一,但零售市道仍然畅旺。

高纬环球发布的研究报告也指出,中国已成为全球零售业巨头关注的焦点,今年零售业销售总额预计将占亚太地区的53%,与2008年的数据相比,同比增长了43%。

高力国际商铺部董事林明瀚指出,2000年时中国的消费总额只有约3.4兆元(约1.65兆令吉),而去年这个数字已经超过了18兆元(约8.7找令吉)。

U Mobile 无意竞购P1


U Mobile 无意竞购P1
Created 11/03/2012 - 12:26

(吉隆坡2日讯)U Mobile私人有限公司总执行长贾法萨尼表示,无意竞购绿驰通讯(GPacket,0082,主板科技股)旗下Packet One网络私人有限公司(简称P1)。

贾法萨尼昨天与明讯(Maxis,6012,主板贸服股)联合总执行长麦克迪欧贾迪,出席一项3G无线接入网络(RAN)共享推介礼后,发表上述谈话贾法萨尼说:“我们不认为有需要收购P1。之前传闻我们有意竞购,事实上我不认为P1会为我们增值,一来因为P1是我们的竞争对手,二来是我们做得比它好。”

他也强调,对U Mobile现有的网络感到满意。

麦克迪欧贾迪也在同一场合上表示:“我们对P1的业务不了解,所以不会参与竞购。”

PhillipCapital Weekly Market Watch 22.10.2012


Fajarbaru Q1 net profit slashed


The Star Online
 Business
Saturday November 3, 2012
Fajarbaru Q1 net profit slashed

KUALA LUMPUR: Fajarbaru Builder Group Bhd's net profit for its first quarter ended Sept 30 had dropped to RM628,000 from RM1.5mil a year ago. The construction outfit's revenue for the period under review declined to RM32.4mil from RM55.2mil year-on-year due to deferment in site possession on two awarded projects.

Earning per share also dropped to 33 sen from 92 sen in 2011.

Going forward, the company in its filing with Bursa Malaysia said the group would focus on the replenishment of its current order book and would continue to actively tender for local construction projects.


美国股市今年能再创新高吗?


美国股市今年能再创新高吗?
文: 骆伟嵩 2012年11月02日 展望
美国在9月13日宣布推出QE3,接下来股市在9月14日升高至13,653点后就开始走弱。在10月26日(星期五),道琼斯工商指数以13,107点闭市,从今年最高峰下滑了500多点,令很多投资者百思不得其解。QE3不是应会把股市推高吗?美国大选前最后一个月股市不应该很好吗?很多投资者在QE3公布后进场买的股票现在都被套牢了。

这说明了一点,股市走势往往出其不意,难以捉摸,要在股市中赚钱真不容易。股民一定要了解市场的心态。市场很多时候是活在一种“期望”当中。美国道指在6月4日跌到今年的低谷12,035点后,就连续上涨四个月。还记得在6月份的时候,我在新加坡一场演讲中被一名股友问到股市下半年的走势时,我说下半年股市很有可能创新高,因为市场“期望” QE3的到来。如果股民投资股票可以认识到这一点,了解股市的“期望值”,就能避过很多错误的决定。当这个“期望”已经落实时,股市可能就会下滑了。几个月前,我甚至开玩笑说,“美国联储局主席伯南克最好不要宣布推出QE3,这样每次他上台前,股市才会升高。”就是因为伯南克在6月到9月都迟迟没有公布QE3,因此每次他发表演讲前,股市就大涨。这种对QE3的期待使美国道指在第三季度表现相当出色,上涨了1,000多点。

嘉德置地第三季净利上升85%

嘉德置地第三季净利上升85%
文: 道琼斯通讯社 (译:麦美莹) 2012年10月30日 道琼斯通讯社
嘉德置地(CapitaLand)在星期二公布,其第三季度净利年比攀升85%,后者归功于营运收入提高及从资产销售而来的一次性收益,主要是来自新加坡及中国市场。

这家东南亚最大的地产发展商(以市值计算)重申其对新加坡及中国的业务信心十足, 并将会在两地投放更多资金,同时减低经济增长放缓及政府最近实施的产业冷却措施所带来的冲击。

公司在一份文告中表示,截至9月30日的3个月净利为1亿4,850万元(1亿2,150万美元),去年同期为8,020万元。收入则从6亿零860万元上升13%至6亿8,690万元。

嘉德置地表示升幅乃归功于其在新加坡、中国及澳洲的发展项目表现出色,以至其商场及产业管理业务所带来的贡献增多。

熱錢行蹤飄忽 撤資風險難防


熱錢行蹤飄忽 撤資風險難防
市場現時充斥熱錢流入的消息,投資者在半信半疑之下,股市已展開了新一輪升浪。金管局多番入市是鐵一般的事實,不獨本港,亞洲地區亦深蒙熱錢之害,觸發各國貨幣全線升值。熱錢流入的風險毋庸多言,因為香港在上兩次美國推出量化寬鬆(QE)早已經歷過熱錢來得快、去得也快之苦。

熱錢威力初步顯示,昨日港股成交重上七百億元以上,恒指二萬二千點關口輕易衝破。環顧美歐中日韓股市,港股獨受眷顧,要解釋可以搬出一大套理由:估值落後、各國央行放水、中國經濟見底復甦等等,但「熱錢流入」四個字才是主打,更勝千個理由。

香港最優勝之處是政局穩定,美國下周二無論由誰人當選總統,均帶來不明朗因素,羅姆尼對華態度是否口硬心軟?奧巴馬會否向富人和企業開刀加稅?但最重要的是大選過後,財政懸崖將成為焦點;歐洲財政緊縮,法國向富人徵百分之七十五重稅,變相鼓勵資金外逃;雖然外資流入中國,但另一渠道——內地的資金亦「螞蟻搬家」經香港出走。

中國經濟已經見底?


中國經濟已經見底?
根據最新公布的經濟指標,中國經濟增長的速度和幅度均超越市場預期,顯示當局所採取的放寬措施已對宏觀經濟產生作用,中國經濟可能正在見底。

今年第三季,中國的本地生產總值按年增長7.4%,略低於第二季的7.6%,為2009年第一季以來所錄得的最低年率增長。中國經濟按年增長之所以放緩,主要是因為第一和第二產業進一步減速,但不利影響已部份為第三產業加速所抵銷。

雖然備受矚目的本地生產總值按年增長,或標誌着中國經濟在第三季見底,但若以按季年率增長計,第一季的6%增長可能才是周期低位,原因是中國經濟在隨後的第二和第三季,已分別按季增長8%和8.8%,後者更是一年以來的最高位。
在其他宏觀數據方面,工業生產、固定資產投資和零售銷售這三大主要周期性指標均超越預期,而貿易、信貸和採購經理指數亦略微回升,全都表明9月份中國的經濟活動確實已開始改善。

SIA's profit tumbles 54% on losses by cargo unit

SIA's profit tumbles 54% on losses by cargo unit
National carrier, which is exploring areas outside its traditional premium focus, says outlook remains challenging
Updated 12:27 AM Nov 03, 2012

SINGAPORE - Singapore Airlines said yesterday that its fiscal second-quarter net profit nosedived 54 per cent to S$90.1 million after losses at its cargo unit tripled, and warned of a challenging outlook amid high and volatile jet fuel prices.

The results were in line with market expectations. Revenue for the quarter ended September rose 2.5 per cent to S$3.8 billion.

Losses at the cargo unit jumped to S$50 million amid a global trade slowdown. SIA said it will further reduce cargo capacity by parking one of its 13 Boeing 747 freighters for more than a year.

Great Eastern Q3 profit soars


Great Eastern Q3 profit soars
by Sim Ping Khuan Updated 12:27 AM Nov 03, 2012

SINGAPORE - Great Eastern Holdings, the insurance subsidiary of OCBC Bank, said yesterday its third-quarter net profit jumped more than 15 times to S$619.6 million, boosted by a one-off gain of S$421.6 million from the sale of its stake in Asia Pacific Breweries and Fraser and Neave.

Excluding this gain, Great Eastern earned S$198 million in July to September, helped by growth in underwriting profit and mark-to-market gains on investments.

In July, Great Eastern divested its 4.6 per cent stake in APB to Kindest Place Groups and 14.9 per cent share in F&N to Thai Beverage.

HK will stick with its US dollar currency peg

HK will stick with its US dollar currency peg
Updated 12:26 AM Nov 03, 2012

HONG KONG - The territory has no plans to change its 29-year currency peg against the US dollar, a government official said yesterday, dismissing talk the authorities are rethinking policy after a series of recent interventions to curb the strength of the Hong Kong dollar.

The peg has come under pressure recently, as the former British colony, along with other Asian centres, became favoured destinations for funds unleashed by major quantitative easing measures in the US, Europe and Japan.

The Hong Kong Monetary Authority has sold US$3.5 billion (S$4.3 billion) worth of Hong Kong dollars into the market via nine interventions over the past two weeks to curb its strength.

東亞資本水平偏低 大摩籲減持


東亞資本水平偏低 大摩籲減持

美國聯儲局日前批准東亞銀行(00023)第三大單一股東日本三井住友銀行提出增持東亞持股的申請,令市場關注李氏家族於東亞的控制權會否受到動搖。有大行報告更指,東亞的資本水平及盈利能力低於同業,對其前景不表樂觀,三井住友銀行有意增持東亞,或許是東亞配股籌資的「前奏」。

德銀:股價跑輸同業

雖然東亞主席李國寶昨日已否認會向三井住友配股或增發股份,惟摩根士丹利發報告指出,這或是東亞配售股份的「前奏」,因為東亞的普通股一級資本充足率只得8.7%,遠低於同業水平,配股集資將是其中一個可行方案,該行又預料增持股權計劃將於月中至明年一月底期間落實。不過,鑑於東亞的資本水平仍然屬於偏低,及盈利能力相對較弱,大摩維持其「減持」評級。

掃A股ETF 外匯局警惕


掃A股ETF 外匯局警惕

熱錢持續流入,部分更流入在港上市A股ETF,藉此購入人民幣資產。不過,熱錢湧港已觸動內地監管部門神經,內地傳媒報道,熱錢透過合格境外機構投資(QFII)、銀行外保內貸業務、地下錢莊等渠道,以合法或非法方式流入內地,深圳外匯局及海關已加強監察。

安碩A50成交榜首

近日在港上市A股ETF交投持續活躍,X安碩A50中國(02823)成交額約21億元,為昨日成交最大股份;南方富時A50(82822)錄5.4億元(人民幣.下同)成交。易方達資產管理常務董事林永森稱,易方達中證100(83100)九月獲加批的30億元人民幣合格境外機構投資者(RQFII額度),部分已申購。

李國寶:東亞未擬配股

李國寶:東亞未擬配股

【本報訊】受策略股東三井住友銀行,獲聯儲局批准可將所持約4.7%的東亞銀行(023)權益,增至最多9.9%的消息刺激,東亞股價昨最多升約3%。市場暫未清楚三井何時增持,及通過甚麼渠道進行,東亞主席李國寶接受電台查詢時,則否認計劃向三井配售或增發新股,惟大摩及摩通報告估計,三井增持建議與東亞解決資本壓力,及集資提升一級資本有關。

身兼東亞行政總裁的李國寶,昨接受《商台》查詢時表示,得知三井計劃透過公開市場增持該行股份,令外界揣測三井是在場內購買東亞舊股。不過,該行發言人其後澄清,李氏發言是指知悉有報道謂三井擬在公開市場增持,並非獲三井確認有關增持方式。

三井增持 股價升逾2%
對於東亞會否向三井配股或增發新股,發言人重申,「目前沒有任何實質計劃」。英國《金融時報》昨報道,指聯儲局批准三井增持,不會強化東亞資本,因「三井已在公開市場購入股份(has been buying shares in the open market)」。

港股破22000歐債後新高 分析員:可安心持貨


港股破22000歐債後新高 分析員:可安心持貨

【本報訊】港股進入忘我狀態!恒指昨日升289點,報22111點,為去年8月初歐債危機爆發以來,首次收高於22000點,反映熱錢流入港股,已經將歐債危機等不明朗因素完全蓋過,股市重新步入正軌。分析員亦認為,投資者今後可減低對港股的戒備程度,可安心持貨。
記者:楊智佳

港股連續第三日上升,恒指昨日裂口高開244點,走勢持續靠穩,全日升289點,報22111點,最高曾見22149點,創今年新高之餘,亦是去年8月初歐債危機爆發以來,恒指首次收高於22000點;H指昨日升133點,報10833點;大市成交701億元。

熱錢流入續成為推動港股上升的主要因素,繼金管局周四晚11時向市場沽出27.51億港元後,再於昨日港股收市後披露沽出50.38億港元,令下周二結算的銀行體系戶口結餘增加至1808.68億港元。金管局於過去兩星期,入市規模已超過320億港元。

黃國英投資SUN國度:人棄我取 換入防守股

投資SUN國度:人棄我取 換入防守股

周二買Call,周三追貨,令到自己表現不至落後,但近幾日狀態是經常處於高度戒備之中,一方面要趁市繼續升,慢慢減持套利,再小注買Put,另一方面則隨時準備吼準轉勢時機,加注做淡。

當然並不是一面倒睇好,今次港股可謂一枝獨秀,外圍股市其實相當軟弱,雖然不是不合理,之前香港也試過斯人獨憔悴,全世界資金去賭中國見底,羊群效應就愈升愈有。可是當水位愈高,和外圍分差愈大,就應該要愈小心。揀股票追的難度也甚高,去到升浪如此後期,還是大落後的話,肯定本身有頗大瑕疵,未必太易轉弱為強。

Genting rises on potential opportunity in US$290b Korea casino project


Hot Stock Genting rises on potential opportunity in US$290b Korea casino project
Business & Markets 2012
Written by Ho Wah Foon of theedgemalaysia.com  
Friday, 02 November 2012 16:02

KUALA LUMPUR (Nov 2): GENTING BHD [] rose sharply today (Friday) in anticipation that an 18-year long mega casino project being planned in South Korea will provide it the much-needed investment opportunities outside Malaysia, according to analysts and dealers.

At 3.47pm today, Genting share rose 13 sen to RM9.03 after hitting an earlier high of RM9.09. It was one of the top turnover stocks, with trading volume of 7.88 million shares.

The rise of Genting was against a fall of the general market in the backdrop, with the FBM KLCI losing 14.5 points to 1661.22.

China Merchants Bank: 3Q12: Weakening Fundamentals Despite Earnings Beating Estimate (UOBKH)


China Merchants Bank
Share Price HK$14.92
Target Price HK$14.00
3Q12: Weakening Fundamentals Despite Earnings Beating Estimate
Despite earnings beating consensus, fundamentals have weakened in the quarter.  CMB reported an 11bp NIM contraction and asset quality further deteriorated.  Given its higher exposure to smaller enterprises and higher sensitivity to rate cut, we expect further earnings pressure into 4Q12.  We believe the market is likely to react negatively to the results.  Maintain SELL.  Target price: HK$14.00.

Results
• Earnings beat consensus but with weakening operating metrics.  China Merchants Bank (CMB) reported 3Q12 net profit of Rmb11.4b, 5.9% above consensus, mainly due to lower-than-expected provisioning charges made during the quarter. In our view, operating trends are weakening and lagging behind peers reported so far.

Longer-term upside for Sunway REIT

Longer-term upside for Sunway REIT
In The Edge Financial Daily Today 2012
Written by Insider Asia  
Friday, 02 November 2012 14:30

Despite having outperformed the headline FBM KLCI so far this year, we suspect investor interest in Sunway REIT (RM1.52) will remain fairly robust.

To be sure, the trust is trading well above its net asset value of RM1.10 per unit, at a multiple of roughly 1.39 times at the prevailing price. With the unit price gains, net yield has also seen gradual compression — to our estimated 4.8% for the financial year ending June 2013 (FY13), after taking into account a 10% withholding tax.

Nevertheless, the comparatively defensive real estate investment trusts (REIT) are likely to continue to fare well amid uncertainties in the broader market, at least for another two to three quarters. Investors will probably remain cautious pending clearer evidence of a pick-up in global economic growth momentum and in the run-up to the general election in the country.

Medini attracts Japanese investors, says IIB chief


Medini attracts Japanese investors, says IIB chief
Property
Written by Mohd Kamarul Azhar of theedgemalaysia.com  
Friday, 02 November 2012 18:12

KUALA LUMPUR (Nov 2): The Medini township in Iskandar Malaysia is attracting foreign direct investments (FDI) from not only Malaysian and Singaporean investors, but also from as far as Japan, gauging by the rate of Japanese owners of the first residential project there, the 1Medini.

1Medini, a mixed commercial project comprising office spaces, retail components and apartments, which is being developed by WCT Bhd's unit WCT Acre Sdn Bhd on a leased land measuring 18.12 acres, has seen 40% take up by foreign buyers, mostly from Japan, according to Iskandar Investment Bhd's (IIB) chief executive Datuk Syed Mohamed Syed Ibrahim.

ICBC: Beating consensus by 3% (CIMB)

ICBC
Current HK$5.03
Target HK$5.86
Beating consensus by 3%

 ICBC’s 3Q12 net profit beat consensus by 2.9% but was somewhat below our aggressive forecast due to an unexpected fair value accounting loss. The latter should be valuation neutral. Beyond that, the business is clearly slowing.

9M12 net profit is 82% of FY12 consensus estimate and 79% of our forecast. We raise our FY12 forecast by 6.8%, mainly for lower provisions. We cut FY13 by 5.3% and FY14 by 8.4% for lower fee and other revenues. We reiterate our Outperform rating and GGM-derived target price of HK$5.86 based on 1.39x FY13 P/BV. Key catalysts include NIM resilience and better-than-forecast asset quality.

China Life : Within expectations (DBSV)


China Life
HOLD HK$22.55
Price Target : 12-Month HK$ 23.36
Within expectations

9M12 net income declined by c.55% y-o-y
Detailed numbers revealed little inconsistency; no further changes to EPS & TP forecast
Maintain HOLD on steady near-term outlook; Prefer Ping An & China Taiping

As disclosed previously, 9M12 net income fell by c.55%. China Life released detailed 9M12 numbers, following its profit-warning on18th October 2012. As expected, the c.55% drop in earnings was mainly driven an extraordinary impairment charge in the third quarter, amounting to Rmb13.9bn. There was no major deterioration in the company’s core underwriting business, with surrenders and general expenses rising slightly but still at stable levels.

Suntec Reit: Delivering consistently (DBSV)


Suntec Reit
BUY S$1.60
Price Target : 12-Month S$ 1.70 (Prev S$ 1.67)
Delivering consistently

• 9M DPU 5% higher than our FY12F
• Suntec’s retail mall’s AEI (Phase 1) is proceeding at full steam, pre-commitment levels healthy at 71%
• Maintain BUY at a higher S$1.70 TP

Highlights
Results slightly ahead of our forecast. 3Q12 gross revenue and NPI declined 8% y-o-y and 20% y-o-y respectively to S$62.6m and $38.4m. The drop was largely due to AEI works at Suntec’s retail mall, as well as the income vacuum from the divestment of CHIJMES, which was partly mitigated by higher contributions from ORQ and MBFC Phase 1. Consequently, distributable income came in at S$52.8m translating to a DPU of 2.35 Scts. 9M DPU came in 5% higher than our FY12F but is in line with street estimates.

Wilmar International: 3Q12 Preview: Good Results But Still Faces Challenges (UOBKH)


Wilmar International (WIL SP)      
Price/Tgt: S$3.06/3.
 1-Yr Hi/Lo:S$5.99/3.00

3Q12 Preview: Good Results But Still Faces Challenges

Wilmar is expected to deliver a net profit of US$340m-360m (+6% yoy, double qoq). Expect a positive contribution from its China crushing business as margin turns positive. However, volume growth might not be as good as 3Q11. Palm business will be driven by higher volume qoq and yoy. However, the turnaround in crushing business is not sustainable and is still challenging. Maintain SELL. Target price: S$3.30.

What’s New
•        Likely to be a normalised quarter. We are expecting Wilmar to report a better net profit of US$340m-360m for 3Q12 (double qoq, +6-8% yoy). Wilmar is likely to see a turnaround in the loss-making oilseed & grain division, and there will be positive contribution from sugar and also higher contribution from the palm business as production volume picked up in 3Q12.

SIA’s Q2 profit falls 54% to $90m, says outlook challenging


SIA’s Q2 profit falls 54% to $90m, says outlook challenging

Singapore Airlines, the world’s second-largest carrier by market capitalisation, posted a 54% drop in quarterly net profit on Friday as margins continued to be weak amid uncertain economic conditions in North America and Europe.

SIA earned $90 million in the three months ended September, down from $194 million a year earlier. The results were, however, in line with the $93 million average forecast of four analysts polled by Reuters and better than the $78 million net profit achieved in the April-June quarter.

“The continuing European economic crisis is dampening global business confidence, exerting downward pressure on loads and yields of both passenger and cargo businesses,” the Singapore flag carrier said in a statement.

曾淵滄教路 23.10.2012 : 百分百內需概念 落後中資股首推華創


百分百內需概念 落後中資股首推華創
中國第三季經濟增長率是7.4%,算是不錯,溫總也說有信心今年經濟增長率可以達標,即今年三月全國人大會議時溫總所預測的7.5%。因此,我認為內地A股於上個月已經見底的機會很大,如果A股真的見底,H股就一定會跑贏大市。實際上,過去一個月,股市已經出現不同H股板塊輪流炒上。

過去一年,不少H股板塊大幅落後於大市,隨着經濟的復甦,自然有追落後的條件。不過,追落後可分短炒與中長線投資兩種方法。

搭順風車風險高

所謂短炒,就是搭順風車,一見某個板塊股價出現異動,馬上追入,見好就收,賺一點點就夠。不過,如此炒法,風險不小,極可能上了車下不了車,或太早下車,沒多久就後悔了,再度入市以更高價格再追,這只會擴大自己的風險。

大英Blog物館 16.10.2012: 股神致勝之道 悶股發大財

股神致勝之道 悶股發大財
「再沒有人光顧那家餐廳了,因為那裏太逼人了!」——洋基傳奇捕手Yogi Berra。

張化橋先生在新作「避開股市的地雷」中,分享了一些多年來走失的投資機會:「2005年,我買過領匯(0823)的IPO。後來,我覺得它『沒有增長空間』,『會跑得很慢』,就把它賣掉了,買了國內的百貨公司。但是,四五六年下來,結果表明,投資欲速則不達。」書中列出領匯上市以來,股東總回報達200%;2007、2008年來港上市的銀泰(1833)、茂業(0848),則分別為55%、負32%。書中又謂:「絕大多數股民(當然包括我)都太急躁,看不上中華煤氣(0003)這種公司的股票。但是,年復一年,這家公司(以及這類公司)給投資者的回報率是最可靠和最高的之一。」

Genting Singapore results likely similar to MBS: Deutsche Bank


Genting Singapore results likely similar to MBS: Deutsche Bank
Deutsche Bank expects Genting Singapore’s Resorts World Sentosa to show a similar weak trend as rival Las Vegas Sands’ Marina Bay Sands property. MBS was hit by a “triple whammy” of lower volume, lower hold and higher provisions, showing mass-gaming market decline for the first time, it notes.

The house expects GENS’ 3Q12 results, due Nov. 12, to show flat revenue with lower ebitda on-quarter, with VIP rolling volume flat on-quarter, but down 17% on-year, while mass revenue is likely to be marginally higher on-quarter, with RWS likely gaining slots market share. It forecasts 3Q12 ebitda of $280 million-$290 million and $700 million revenue.

“Singapore gaming market may have contracted by roughly 20% year-on-year (VIP down 37%; mass down 2%) or 6% quarter-on-quarter to about $1.6 billion from $1.72 billion in 2Q12).” Market-share by gross-gaming revenue may have shifted toward RWS, given MBS’ poor VIP hold, but overall hold-adjusted market share likely didn’t shift significantly on-quarter, the house says, noting MBS was at 53%, with RWS at 47%. It rates GENS Hold with $1.21 target. The stock is down 1.5% at $1.33.


Hi-P’s 3Q12 results confirm turnaround delay: CIMB

Hi-P’s 3Q12 results confirm turnaround delay: CIMB

Hi-P’s 3Q12 results were weak, as expected, but slightly ahead of forecast, CIMB says, noting 9M12 net profit was 24% of its FY12 forecast.

It notes the weak 3Q12 was due to iPhone 5 supply constraints and weakness in other major customers, but Hi-P guided for higher 4Q12 revenue and profit on an on-year basis.

While management remains confident robust sales of tablets and smartphones will continue to affect the industry and company positively, Hi-P’s record FY12 capex of $180 million, with not much to show for it so far, keeps the house skeptical of the company’s ability to generate the kind of profit initially expected.

“Hi-P’s weak set of results, caused by delays in new projects from new and existing customers, has affirmed our view that its turnaround has been pushed back. We believe 2H13 will be a better time to relook at this stock.”

Hi-P +4%; 3Q12 profit drop priced in: OSK


Hi-P +4%; 3Q12 profit drop priced in: OSK
Hi-P is up 4% at $0.78 -- its intraday high -- despite reporting a 3Q12 net profit of $3 million, down 53.8% on-year, but swinging from a 2Q12 loss; the decline may be well-expected after its profit warning.

“It’s priced in,” says Edison Chen, an analyst at OSK Research. “The chairman has reiterated that he’s still optimistic,” he adds. “All the pushbacks and delays are now being executed in the fourth quarter. They are seeing it coming next year as well. The situation has improved.”

But he adds, Hi-P needs to quickly integrate to provide final assembly for their customers, noting Hi-P’s orders were pushed back as Apple assembler Foxconn didn’t produce enough.

“It’s better to take a cautious stance,” on the stock, he says. “They do see the orders coming, but of course there’s risk,” he says. “Even Apple demand is not as certain due to the intensive competition.”

GLP my see some dilution from J-REIT plan: Religare

GLP my see some dilution from J-REIT plan: Religare

If GLP’s Japanese assets are floated at book value, there could be dilution of about US$0.04/share unless GLP announces new accretive investments, Religare says.

It notes the Japanese assets have an annualised 1Q13 EBIT of US$452 million ($551 million) and asset value of US$7.9 billion.

While GLP could theoretically divest all 68 of its Japanese assets, instead of the 30 it is injecting into the J-REIT, it would find it difficult to re-deploy that much capital in a short time frame, the house notes.

It keeps a Hold call with $2.46 target. The stock is up 2.6% at $2.73.

Genting Singapore down 1.5%; MBS results weak: Analyst


Genting Singapore down 1.5%; MBS results weak: Analyst
Genting Singapore is down 1.5% at $1.33, its intraday low, after rival Las Vegas Sands (LVS) reported its Marina Bay Sands property’s 3Q12 operating income fell 47.2% on-year to US$166.5 million ($203.1 million), citing increased provisions for accounts receivable and a lower-than-expected rolling-chip win percentage.

“It’s a weak set of results. Apart from the low win rate, VIP volumes were down. If you assume market shares are constant, then the Singapore market was weaker,” an analyst says, adding the results were weaker than he expected. He notes SGD strength also boosted MBS’ results by about 1%-2%. “The Singapore market could be weaker than previously thought.”

仁川擬闢2900億美元賭城‧雲頂料搶韓國龐大商機

仁川擬闢2900億美元賭城‧雲頂料搶韓國龐大商機
Created 11/02/2012 - 17:44

(吉隆坡2日訊)韓國政府擬在仁川打造國際級賭城,分析員看好將吸引全球賭業巨頭爭相競逐,雲頂(GENTING,3182,主板貿服組)對此感到興趣並不令人意外,主要是韓國高人均收入和強勁基礎建設實力,都讓公司看到進軍當地市場的龐大商機。

報導指出,韓國仁川市與一群投資者結盟,擬將該市永宗地區的龍游-舞衣島建設成類似拉斯維加斯的集文化、旅遊、休閒一身的複合都市“8City",預計2030年竣工,總投資額高達2千900億美元。

同時,韓國政府為了向經濟自由區域引進更多的外國直接投資,也同意放寬開設賭場的規定。

豐隆研究認為,相關結盟對任何一方都是“雙贏",因這不僅可推動韓國成為全球賭城,更可使韓國崛起成為區域首屈一指的旅遊勝地,並推動當地旅遊和娛樂事業發展。

股價連漲‧謠言四竄‧豐隆和大眾:不合併


股價連漲‧謠言四竄‧豐隆和大眾:不合併
大馬 2012-11-02

(吉隆坡2日訊)最近銀行業併購消息不斷,最新消息指豐隆銀行(HLBANK,5819,主板金融組)可能“以小吃大"併購大眾銀行(PBBANK,1295,主板金融組),儘管這兩家銀行已否認,但每當銀行業併購熱潮掀起時,市場仍落力為豐隆銀行及大眾銀行配對,不排除合併的可能。

大馬研究更直接表示,若以目前的股價賬面值展開交易,涉及的總收購成本將達到560億令吉,或相等於大眾銀行的每股15令吉80仙。

隨著近期豐隆銀行及大眾銀行股價上漲,市場開始盛傳這兩家銀行將展開併購活動,不過豐隆銀行及大眾銀行受詢時均對這項消息作出否認,並指不可能發生。

房產位置優勢撐腰‧桂嘉無懼供過於求

房產位置優勢撐腰‧桂嘉無懼供過於求
Created 11/01/2012 - 19:03
(吉隆坡1日訊)桂嘉資產管理(QCAPITA,5123,主板產業投資信托組)首9個月業績表現符預期,分析員對辦公市場供過於求問題感到憂慮,但相信旗下資產擁有良好地理位置搭救,短期盈利影響料不大。

興業研究指出,桂嘉資產管理第三季營業額按年下跌2.7%至1千710萬令吉,淨收入930萬令吉推動首9個月淨利達2千650萬令吉,表現符合預期。

“桂嘉資產管理營業額主要受部份產業租賃和高維修成本打擊,但淨利表現則獲部份產業正面租金調整和低借貸率扶持,整體表現相對穩定。"

釋放非核心業務價值‧雲頂或整合博彩業務


釋放非核心業務價值‧雲頂或整合博彩業務
Created 11/01/2012 - 19:04
(吉隆坡1日訊)許多投資者認為雲頂(GENTING,3182,主板貿服組)的企業架構脫節不連貫,使雲頂很可能進行重組,特別是將博彩業務整合在一起,以及區隔非博彩業務以釋放更高的價值。

聯昌研究認為,最容易的重組計劃,是將雲頂私有化後,再以純博彩財團的形式重新上市。

投資者認為,雲頂目前的企業架構,使他們難以區分它到底是全球博彩財團,或僅是一個多元財團,除了博彩業外尚持有種植及油氣業務等,使它旗下的博彩業務脫節及不連貫。

該行指出,若將雲頂控股公司在如美國股市重新上市,預料可帶來更高估值,特別是在亞洲賭場市場的曝光度,就如其同儕拉斯維加斯金沙、永利度假村,以及美高梅等的估值。

What’s in store in the next decade?


The Star Online  Business
Saturday November 3, 2012
What’s in store in the next decade?

STARBIZWEEK'S B.K. Sidhu held an interview with AirAsia group CEO Tan Sri Tony Fernandes and below are the excerpts:

AIRASIA

After a decade, and having built hubs in Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, the Philippines and Japan, what is in store for AirAsia in the next decade?

We are moving from Malaysia to Asean, and Asia.

We are on the final chapter of the dream I had 10 years ago. We have firmly created an Asean brand and now, it is the last bits of Asia. What a phenomenal market to be in.

增設70一馬診所‧發馬產品銷量可期


增設70一馬診所‧發馬產品銷量可期
Created 11/01/2012 - 19:06
(吉隆坡1日訊)隨著政府以民為本,減少人民醫療成本及促進保健服務,包括在2013年財政預算案中,為一個大馬診所計劃設立額外70間新診所,及提昇另外350間診所,預料使發馬(PHARMA,7081,主板貿服組)旗下醫藥及相關產品的業務受惠。

豐隆研究指出,它看好該公司未來業務表現,其中催化因素也包括其新管理層推行的業務重組活動,預料更多提昇盈利措施,以及持續營運表現卓越等利好支撐。

不過,該行指出,隨著預測2012年財政年下半年淡季的業務較為偏軟,調整資本開銷基礎,及股息派發率假設等利空,該行將其2012年至2014年財政年的每股盈利預測,分別調低14.4%、12.8%以及9.6%。

該行指出,該公司將攫取國內外保健業市場的更多商機,包括它甫於上週與TRAKTIF洗腎專科中心(PPDT)簽署備忘錄供應洗腎醫藥器材,料也同時推動相關藥物需求,從而獲得重复收入。

人口1.3亿最大中产市场 券商唱好亚航强攻印尼


人口1.3亿最大中产市场 券商唱好亚航强攻印尼
Created 11/02/2012 - 12:16
(吉隆坡1日讯)亚洲航空(AirAsia,5099,主板贸服股)致力于拓展印尼业务版图,以及从容面对竞争剧烈与燃油成本高企的挑战,促使券商乐观看待其增长前景。

安联投资研究说,早前与亚航高层会面,后者强调,拥有庞大人口的印尼是推动亚航继续增长的下一个催化剂。

世界银行估计,在未来20年,印尼的中产阶级(有足够可支配收入乘搭飞机旅游)人口,将从1亿3000万增至逾2亿4000万。

该分析员说:“目前,印尼的飞机乘客量仅超过6000万人;换言之,这是个很大的增长潜能。”

Maybank upgrades DBS to buy


Maybank upgrades DBS to buy

Maybank Kim Eng upgraded Southeast Asia’s largest lender DBS Group Holdings to ‘buy’ from ‘sell’ and raised its target price to $16.10 from $13.10, citing a more stable outlook.

By 10:11 a.m., DBS shares rose 0.7% to $13.89, and have gained 20.6% since the start of the year, compared to the Straits Times Index’s 15% increase.

DBS posted a 12% rise in third-quarter net profit on Thursday, beating expectations on a sharp drop in bad debt charges and on double-digit growth in income from its core lending business.

“Net interest margins are likely to stabilize moving forward in our view, while loan momentum will likely sustain, albeit at a slower pace,” said Maybank in a report.

Noble Group up as brokers raise target prices


Noble Group up as brokers raise target prices

Shares of Noble Group rose as much as 2.8% after analysts raised their target prices for the
commodity trader on expectations of an earnings improvement.

By 10:52 a.m., Noble shares were up 2.4% at $1.295, and have climbed 14.6% so far this year, compared to the Straits Times Index’s 15% rise.

CIMB Research raised its target price for Noble to $1.61 from $1.46 and kept its ’outperform’ rating, and said its new sugar assets in Brazil should boost agriculture earnings and on
improving industry outlook.

Dollar Strength on Recent Positive Data Not Sustainable: Pro


Is Central Bank QE Overheating Developing Economies?


Tim Cook Shapes a New Era at Apple


Making Sense of the 'Fiscal Cliff'


史玉柱:银行资产质量未受到任何威胁


Sandy Could Help US GDP in 2013


China's Bottoming Out


Japanese Valuations Look Good: Pro


《环球第一财经》衡量连任的标准:GDP和失业率

《环球第一财经》衡量连任的标准:GDP和失业率
http://www.sina.com.cn 2012年11月02日 宁夏卫视《财经夜行线》

Bill Gross Expects 'Lower Returns' But ...


Bill Gross' Investment Outlook


《财经夜行线》 欧元之父蒙代尔:QE3是近期人民币升值的重要因素

《财经夜行线》 欧元之父蒙代尔:QE3是近期人民币升值的重要因素
http://www.sina.com.cn 2012年11月01日 宁夏卫视《财经夜行线》

新闻:比亚迪股份(1211-HK)第三季纯利大跌94%


中石油(0857-HK)第三季纯利减少33.3%


每日窝轮:十八大前A50反弹 认购证迫近新


Facing the China Challenge


人民币汇价再创高位 官方引导汇率升值预期


中金彭文生:中国经济正“温柔拐弯”


Friday, November 2, 2012

中国十八大后的政策推演


中国十八大后的政策推演
BWCHINESE中文网 作者:刘煜辉 2012-10-30

中国社科院金融所金融实验研究室主任刘煜辉:新政府的政策取向,对于2013年的经济运行态势、进而对证券市场有着重大的影响。中国可能又进入了新一轮“米德冲突”的政策状态。从政策上看,可能存在以下三种场景。

场景一
2012年11月8日将召开中国共产党的十八大,至2013年3月两会召开和政府换届,这段时间将成为市场演化的重要时间窗口。

新政府的政策取向,对于2013年的经济运行态势、进而对证券市场有着重大的影响。从政策上看,可能存在以下三种场景。

1987年股市崩盘梦魇势必重现


1987年股市崩盘梦魇势必重现

Mark Hulbert

做好准备吧,股市将再次出现与1987年10月份一样猛烈的崩盘。

这一预期的确让人望而生畏,因为按照当前水平,这样的跌势意味着道琼斯指数在单个交易日内下挫3,000点以上。

不要以为熔断机制等市场监管改革能够阻止上述情况发生,这样想其实是自欺欺人。

近期一系列针对市场崩盘频率的有趣的学术研究揭示了这些发人深省的事实。认清这些事实也许是对1987年股市崩盘25周年的最好纪念,当年10月19日,道琼斯指数下跌了22.6%。

热钱伤害经济体的三大诱因


热钱伤害经济体的三大诱因
作者:BWCHINESE中文网专栏作家 钮文新
BWCHINESE中文网专栏作家钮文新:研究历次金融危机的过程可以发现,各危机国家之所以被“热钱”所伤,一般都有三大诱因。

热钱――Hot Money在经济学上没有严格的定义,仅仅是一种市场俗称而已。它之所以被称为“热钱”,是因为它有强大的流动性偏好。

也就是说,它们通常偏好赚快钱,而稍有风吹草动就“跑”,就像一块烫手的山芋,谁都不敢在手上长时间的停留而是不停的“传递”。

不过,这只是热钱的一种表象,而不是核心。核心是:热钱是一种金融资本。它和所有资本一样,都是在追求利润的最大化。

1.2亿购英发电厂土地 科恩马下月料获融资

1.2亿购英发电厂土地 科恩马下月料获融资

(吉隆坡1日讯)科恩马集团有限公司(KNM,7164,工业产品组)于英国彼得堡23亿令吉再生能源厂计划顺利进行中,并已完成以2500万英镑(1亿2270万令吉),完成收购彼得堡一幅55英亩地段。

上述透过Poplar投资有限公司购入的土地,将成为上述于2010年宣布,80兆瓦再生能源厂计划的地点。

获得上述土地,也使得科恩马集团获得这项计划融资明朗化。

上述融资可能于11月颁发。

其一名执行员指出:“如果一切顺利,我们可在未来2或3周内获得融资需求。”

Taipei mayor reiterates at presser IGB win in RM8b project


Taipei mayor reiterates at presser IGB win in RM8b project
Business & Markets 2012
Written by Ho Wah Foon theedgemalaysia.com  
Wednesday, 31 October 2012 16:37

PETALING JAYA (Oct 31): The mayor of Taipei has officially announced that a consortium led by Malaysia's IGB CORPORATION BHD [] has been given the major task to construct Taiwan's biggest urban project — Taipei Twin Towers — that cost about RM8 billion.

This was done at a press conference yesterday (Tuesday) after Taipei Mayor Hau Lung-bin chaired a city council meeting and held a meeting with the winning developer, according to a Chinese-language statement posted on the website of Taipei City Government today.

Accompanying the statement are photos of the proposed Twin Tower project, the mayor together with his council members.

Inflation set to rise on labour cost: MAS


Inflation set to rise on labour cost: MAS

Food prices may also spike next year due to drought. -ST
Melissa Tan

Fri, Nov 02, 2012
The Straits Times

Inflation is likely to rise further in the wake of higher manpower costs stemming from tighter foreign worker policies and continued weakness in services sector productivity.

The warning came yesterday from the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS), which added that drought in grain-producing countries could send food prices spiking early next year.

GLP eyes $1.6b from Japan property trust


GLP eyes $1.6b from Japan property trust

Singapore’s Global Logistic Properties, one of the world’s largest warehouse operators, plans to raise US$1.3 billion ($1.6 billion) by setting up a real estate investment trust (REIT) in Japan.

The group will set up its first real estate investment trust with 30 properties valued at US$2.6 billion. The Singapore firm expects to raise net cash proceeds of US$1.3 billion that it will use mainly for projects in China and Japan.

Reuters reported GLP’s intentions to spin off properties via a REIT -- an investment vehicle that owns real estate assets and pays regular dividends to investors -- in September last year.
 

股市纵横:联想低位回升动力强

股市纵横:联想低位回升动力强
http://paper.wenweipo.com   [2012-11-02]

 港股昨日出现先低后高的走势,尾市愈升愈有,而是日所造出的高位离上周所创出的年高位只差约15点而已。港股短期蓄势攀高可期,资金流入也有加速迹象,其中追捧的焦点主要为龙头股,作为计算机硬件一哥的联想集团(0992),因已沉寂了一段时间,所以已可加留意。联想近期主要在6.1元至6.4元水平上落,惟该股昨已见发力追落后,并以近全日高位的6.38元报收,升0.15元或2.41%,成交增至4.14亿元,在资金对实力绩优股仍然情有独钟下,其上升潜质也不妨看高一线。

下周次季业绩放榜可憧憬
 联想已定下周四(8日)公布截至今年9月底止的第二季度业绩,不过基于第二季和第三季通常是该公司的销售旺季,所以其业绩表现也值得憧憬。麦格理日前发表研究报告指出,截至9月底止季度,整体个人计算机行业的出货量按年录高单位数的跌幅,但该行相信联想于期内的出货量按年增长10%。此外,根据麦格理的调查,联想旗下的智能电话出货量于第2季按年更可望增逾10倍。而据统计资料显示,联想在内地智能手机市场的销售已超越苹果,未来将进军印度、印尼、菲律宾等东南亚市场。

内银新增不良贷款料扩大


内银新增不良贷款料扩大
http://paper.wenweipo.com   [2012-11-02]     )
 香港文汇报讯  东方资产管理公司的最新报告预计:2012年内地商业银行新增不良贷款规模将同比增长10%以内,不良贷款率将达到1%至2%,主要来自房地产企业。并预计,商业银行出售不良贷款规模将小幅增加,今年四季度及明年前两个季度单季不良贷款规模将明显上升。

房地产业信贷风险最大
 东方资产名为《2012:中国金融不良资产市场调查报告》称,基于调结构政策影响,商业银行不良贷款的主要来源排名前三的分别是房地产企业、外向型企业和地方融资平台。房地产业居不良贷款来源之首,可能与行业高库存、越来越多开发商面临资金困境有关,房地产贷款质量也因此受到影响;而调结构政策对信贷风险影响最大的三个行业,分别是钢铁建材产业、房地产业和战略性新兴产业。

平银不良贷款率升

平银不良贷款率升
http://paper.wenweipo.com   [2012-11-02]

香港文汇报讯(记者 刘璇)平保(2318)副董事长兼首席运行官孙建一昨于投资者网上讨论时指出,截至9月底,平保旗下平安银行不良贷款余额56.6亿人民币,不良贷款率0.8%,比年初上升0.27个百分点。他解释,受国内外经济放缓影响,今年第3季部分民营中小企业经营困难,令平安银行偿债能力持续下降,加上相关抵债资产并非处置的最好时期,对该行信贷资产质量造成一定影响。

孙建一称,不良贷款主要集中在制造业和商业,在区域上主要以温州分行为主,其期末不良贷款余额占整体32%,若撇除温州分行的影响,平安银行不良贷款率为0.56%,仍在较低水平。他续说,温州分行资产质量虽对整体资产质量造成较大压力,但由于温州分行的贷款总额占全行比重仅为2.8%,且大部分不良贷款均有抵押资产,因此银行整体风险可控。
上季寿险新单业务不俗

標普:內銀將現大規模合併


標普:內銀將現大規模合併
2012年11月2日
【明報專訊】標普表示內地銀行未來幾年將面臨淨息差收窄、不良貸款率增加的挑戰,小型銀行盈利能力將嚴重被削弱,預期未來幾年銀行業將出現大規模合併整合。

小行資金鏈更脆弱 大行將積極併購

標普金融機構評級董事廖強認為,自2007年以來,內銀在放貸熱潮中利潤升,同時累積了大量潛在信用風險。儘管按照國際標準,內地50大銀行的資金狀仍穩健,但預期信貸快速增長將令內銀的融資和流動性下滑。隨經濟增速放緩,內銀在面對淨息差被削弱的同時要承受不良貸款率增加。廖強續稱,經濟放緩將加劇內銀的兩極分化。規模較小的銀行在經營環境變差時資金鏈更容易斷裂,大型銀行融資成本更低,而且收入基礎更多元,受利息收入下滑帶來的衝擊較小。廖強因此預期,未來幾年將出現大規模的市場整合,很多大型銀行會積極併購小銀行以增強市場地位。

炒賣A50須留意市場情緒


炒賣A50須留意市場情緒
2012年11月2日
【明報專訊】多國紛推出量化寬鬆貨幣政策,令游資四溢,湧港的熱錢追逐的目標未必是正股,尤其是恒指藍籌股表現參差,例如香港地產股受制於政府「辣招」而沽壓沉重,內銀股昨天亦未能保持強勢,故這些東來的資金主力投資交易所買賣基金 (ETF)。X安碩A50中國(2328)昨日的成交額超過20億元,而追蹤恒指的盈富基金(2800)亦達到10億元,分別位列成交榜的首位及11位。

A50溢價仍在平均水平之下

根據彭博顯示,X安碩A50中國ETF近期的基金單位明顯增加,由10月初的52.42億個,增至前日的55.68億個,即相當於新增3.26億個單位,市值32.6億元(見圖)。A50增發基金單位,反映投資者對中資股明顯看好。

SUN勢力:平保受惠A股回升


SUN勢力:平保受惠A股回升

內地十月官方PMI自五月以來首次重上50的盛衰分界線,帶動滬綜指昨日升1.7%。隨着內地經濟有望見底,A股亦有機會反彈,持有不少A股投資的內險股,有吸納價值,投資者可考慮最近屢獲大行唱好的平保(02318)。

平保第三季純利21.2億元人民幣,按季倒退逾七成,主要是由於內地股市持續低迷,導致投資損失和資產減值增加。據調查顯示,平保的股票投資佔整體資產比例約為6%,隨着經濟逐漸復甦及憧憬十八大後將有更多政策落實推行,料能進一步帶動A股反彈,對平保自然利好。

瑞銀發表報告,指集團首三季實現保費收入739億元人民幣,平安銀行首九個月佔平保稅後純利貢獻32%,兩項業務將持續支持集團保持增長,維持「買入」評級。走勢上,若升穿64.2元,可上試五月初高位67.5元,250日線59.6元未宜失守。

工行上季多賺15% 達624億


工行上季多賺15% 達624億
2012年10月31日
【明報專訊】四大行中,工行(1398)昨天最後一個公布業績,第3季純利為624.42億元(人民幣,下同),按年升14.9%,較第2季亦輕微上升0.1%,首3季度共計盈利1857.11億元,按年升13.3%,均勝預期。

工行第3季淨利息收入按年升15.9%至1073.11億元,儘管券商普遍指出,工行第3季度淨利息收益率(NIM)按季收窄1至2個基點(1%等如100基點),但分析師認為,該行存款逐季增長,至9月底達到13.6萬億元,按季增長3.4%,能保持息差基本持平已不錯。

九大內銀悉數公布第3季業績,整體而言,四大行跑出,盈利按年增長雙位數,超預期,在經濟下行期間,也保持不良貸款率繼續下滑。而中小銀行成為了動盪經濟中的輸家,除中信行(0998)外,雖然盈利增長仍然可觀,但5家行息差均按季收窄,且不良貸款按季「雙漲」。分析師預期,中小銀行第4季業績將進一步轉差,拖累全年盈利,資產質量問題將蔓延至所有內銀。

大鱷噬港元沽期指

大鱷噬港元沽期指
美股逾百年來首度因惡劣天氣停市兩日,大鱷被迫改變以往在紐約時段對港元的攻略而「棄暗投明」,金管局昨首度於股市交易日在亞洲交易時段入市,沽售27億港元。與此同時,美股重開後或因積壓大量交易而波動,基金經理紛紛部署對沖風險,包括在港沽期指、沽空大型交易所買賣基金(ETF)及滙控(00005),並買入美股期貨。

金管月內共注170億
日本央行兩個月來第二度加碼救市,同時歐美繼續「印銀紙」,預期持續有資金來港,昨日金管局向銀行體系注資27億港元,十一月一日總結餘相應增加至1,657億港元。據了解,金管局在香港及紐約均設有辦事處,是次注資由香港辦事處負責,本月二十日至今,金管局已五度向市場注資,涉及金額合共170.61億港元。

DBS posts 12%jump in Q3 profit


DBS posts 12%jump in Q3 profit
Loans expected to continue to grow about 10 per cent this year and next, net interest margin remains on decline
04:45 AM Nov 02, 2012

SINGAPORE - DBS Group Holdings, South-east Asia's largest bank by assets, said third-quarter net profit rose 12 per cent on-year to S$856 million, beating estimates as loan growth continued to climb and despite persistent pressure on mortgage margins.

That beat the S$801 million forecast in a Bloomberg poll, and was above the S$810 million recorded in its second quarter.

Singapore's banks, like their Hong Kong counterparts, have faced persistent headwinds from contracting net interest margins over the past three years, because of the accentuated low world-wide interest-rate environment.

睇好A股 A50溢價近7%

睇好A股 A50溢價近7%

熱錢流入港股,大手掃入一批追蹤中港股票的ETF(交易所買賣基金),安碩A50中國(2823)自然受惠,其價格一連兩日顯著上升,昨日再漲2.5%,重上10元水平,全日成交金額23.5億元,創近半年最高,亦令該基金成為昨日交投最活躍的港股。

熱錢大手追入安碩A50中國,亦令其價格較每股資產淨值(NAV)溢價6.85%,幅度明顯高於該基金04年11月上市至今的溢價平均數3.55%,換言之,投資者願意付出高於市價近7%的作價,透過買入該ETF去持有A股掛鈎的資產,可見近期進入港股的投資者,格外看好A股後市表現。

三井擬增持 東亞或配股

三井擬增持 東亞或配股

【本報訊】市場一直關注東亞銀行(023)的集資需要,其策略股東三井住友銀行及母公司三井住友集團,獲美國聯儲局批准,可增持東亞權益至最多9.9%。證券界相信,三井申請獲批,是為東亞配售新股集資鋪路。東亞副行政總裁兼投資總監李繼昌接受訪問時說,現階段沒有任何公佈,但該行「幾時都有增資擴股計劃」。

若折讓5%配售可籌33億
東亞昨逆市下跌0.52%,收28.6元。目前三井住友持有東亞約4.7%權益。09年底,東亞透過向西班牙股東CaixaBank及三井住友配售1.67億股新股,集資51.13億元,當時三井持股由1.9%增至4.05%。

中信證券國際報告預期,三井若增持東亞至9.9%,後者須增發1.21億股新股,假設東亞以前日收市價折讓5%、即每股27.3元配售,該行可集資約33億元,料有助提升明年核心資本充足率約75點子。

平保仍看好壽險發展


平保仍看好壽險發展

【本報訊】平保(2318)管理層昨在網上交流會上表示,內地壽險退保率上升,主因內地銀行存款息仍在高位,令客戶轉投回報較高的銀行產品,但平保的銀行銷售保險業務不大,故影響較小。

券商認為,平保上季業績差強人意,主因壽險業務錄得虧損,但業績已反映壞因素,平保第四季業務有望反彈。

內地銀行理財產品對壽險產品影響,未有因人行兩次減息而消退。平保首席律師兼公司秘書姚軍表示,內地壽險發展空間仍很大,加上平保近年主力發展電話銷售業務,平保亦有近50萬名前線員工,可減低銀保業務對集團影響。他稱,平保旗下壽險產品主要屬長期及保障型產品,受銀保影響較小。

Fufeng Group: Weak MSG demand (CIMB)


Fufeng Group
Current HK$2.96
Target HK$3.50
Weak MSG demand

 We cut our FY12-14 earnings forecasts by 8-12% to reflect weaker-than-expected sales volume growth and a narrower gross margin in 3Q12. Management said MSG volume growth in 3Q12 was below expectation due to the sluggish macro economy.

We expect it to be difficult for Fufeng to raise MSG selling prices in 4Q12, a traditional hot season for MSG consumption. Maintain Outperform for its cheap valuation and our DCF-based target price (WACC: 11.2%) is lifted after rolling forward to FY13.

Capacity cuts push up AE rates (CIMB)


 Capacity cuts push up AE rates
Container liners managed to push Asia-Europe rates up last week, as the cumulative effect of capacity cuts kicked in. Rates should rise again next week as CSCL announced new skipped sailings in November. We may be past the worst in rates for 2012, but 2013 will still be difficult.

 Meanwhile, capesize rates rose again last week on continued Chinese iron ore restocking, though this may not last. The other vessel classes saw rates fall. We stay Neutral on shipping overall, with Outperforms on our top picks, OOIL and SITC. We downgraded NOL to Underperform last week as its 3Q disappointed.

Ascendas India Trust : Preparing to use its war chest (DBSV)

Ascendas India Trust
HOLD S$0.755
Price Target : 12-Month S$ 0.81 (Prev S$ 0.84)
Preparing to use its war chest

• 2Q13 DPU of 1.2 Scts in line
• Recent EFR strengthens balance sheet; a-itrust is targeting opportunities to grow
• HOLD, TP S$0.81

2Q13 results in line. Ascendas India Trust’s (a-itrust) underlying performance in INR remained robust with an 18% and 19% y-o-y jump in revenues and net property income to INR 1,406 m and INR 839m respectively on the back of contributions from an expanded portfolio. However, reported performance was muted due to the 16% appreciation of the SGD against the INR.

GMG Global:Another weak quarter ahead (DBSV)


GMG Global
HOLD S$0.131
Price Target : 12-Month S$ 0.125
Another weak quarter ahead

• 3Q12 core profit came in at S$12.2m (-53% y-oy); below expectations
• Cut FY12F-14F profit by 19-23% after imputing lower rubber prices and SIAT associate earnings
• Maintain HOLD; TP maintained at S$0.125 after rolling over valuation base to FY13

3Q12 PATMI below expectation. GMG Global reported 3Q12 core earnings of S$12.2m (-53% y-o-y; +6% q-o-q). 9M12 profit is S$35.4m or only 64% of our full year forecast, which means annualised profit is below expectation. 3Q12 profit halved y-o-y because ASP fell 34% (-20% q-o-q) to S$3,726/MT as rubber prices corrected in the quarter. This offset the 47% y-o-y growth in sales volume to 81,664 MT, which was driven by growth at Teck Bee Hang and initial contributions from ITCA and SIAT. Also, the S$3.8m earnings from new SIAT associate were below our S$6.3m estimate because we underestimated SIAT’s cost base.

Frasers Commercial Trust: Turning into a stronger REIT (DMG)


Frasers Commercial Trust: Turning into a stronger REIT
(BUY,  S$1.20,  TP: S$1.41)
4QFY12 DPU in line with expectations.  Frasers Commercial Trust (FCOT) reported 4QFY12 DPU of 1.75S¢ (+15% YoY). Together with the first three quarters, FY12 DPU came to 6.69S¢; 1.6% below our FY12 DPU estimate. Revenue and net property income for this quarter came in at S$35.6m (+17% YoY) and S$26.5m (9% YoY) respectively. Distributable income came in at  S$16.1m (+12% YoY), mainly attributable to the additional income contribution from the additional 50% stake in Caroline Chisholm Centre and the one-off gain of S$72.8m from the divestment of KeyPoint. Recently, FCOT has also divested its three properties in Japan. By doing so, coupled with the proceeds from the divestment of KeyPoint,  gearing has been pared down to a healthy level of 28.6% (vs 36.8% previously).

NOL has sold its namesake building (Limtan)


NOL
S$1.17-NEPS.SI
 NOL has sold its namesake building (to the Fragrance Group) for $380 mln (14.7 cents per share), or below $400 mln as had earlier been reported by the local press, ie neither the disposal nor the price is a surprise.

 NOL will realize profit of S$246 mln or 9.5 cents per share, and will lease back the building till end June 2014.

 NOL returned to the black in Q3, albeit modestly to the tune of US$50 mln, despite which loss for the first 9 months of 2012 totals US$321 mln.

Hutchison Port Holdings Trust: 3Q12: Earnings Missed Projection Again (UOBKH)

Hutchison Port Holdings Trust
Share price US$0.82
Target price US$0.89
3Q12: Earnings Missed Projection Again But Full-year DPU Guidance Is Achievable

HPHT’s 3Q12 revenue and earnings are below projection on weaker-thanexpected throughput growth in PRD. However, 2012F full-year DPU guidance is still achievable by deferring capex. Maintain BUY on attractive 2013F dividend of 8.0%. Target price: US$0.89.

Results
 Revenue was 13% below forecast. Revenue including other income was HK$3,329.8m, 13% below forecast, due primarily to weaker-thanexpected throughput growth. Throughput in 3Q12 in HIT and Yantian increased 5.6% and 9.7% yoy respectively, but were 7.6% and 10.4% respectively below forecast. The lower-than-expected throughput numbers were mainly due to the weaker-than-expected US and Europe volume. The higher proportion of transshipment throughput handled caused the average revenue per teu for Hong Kong to be lower than expected. For Yantian, the ASP was flattish compared to last year, rather than improving, resulting from the increasing empty box and transshipment cargo.

Cache Logistics Trust:3Q12: Resilient High-yielding Logistics Pick (UOBKH)


Cache Logistics Trust
Share Price S$1.22
Target Price S$1.41
3Q12: Resilient High-yielding Logistics Pick

No surprises as DPU rises 2.3% yoy following the acquisition of Pan Asia Logistics Centre and Pandan Logistics Hub.  Cache remains a resilient highyielding (7.1% yield) logistics pick on the back of low gearing (32.6%), locked-in long master leases (4.1 years), and no refinancing requirements until 2015. Maintain BUY with a target price of S$1.41.

Results
 Results in line with expectations. Cache Logistics Trust (Cache) reported a 3Q12 distributable income of S$15.1m (+12.7% yoy, +8.6% qoq) and a DPU of 2.14 S cents (+2.3% yoy, +8.0% qoq).  The DPU for 9M12 is in line with our expectations, accounting for 73.9% of our fullyear estimates.

Frasers Centrepoint Trust:4QFY12: Causeway Point Continues To Surprise (UOBKH)


Frasers Centrepoint Trust
Share Price S$1.91
Target Price S$2.23
4QFY12: Causeway Point Continues To Surprise

Maintain BUY with a higher target price of S$2.23 (from S$2.14) on better- than-expected 4QFY12 results on the  back of solid contributions from Causeway Point’s AEI. Further upside will come from the completion of its last phase of AEI by end-12, and the  potential acquisition of Changi City Point in 2013. With a 30% gearing and a suburban retail portfolio, FCT remains a key defensive retail S-REIT pick.

Results
• Results above expectations.  Frasers Centrepoint Trust (FCT) reported 4QFY12 distribution to unitholders of S$22.3m (+21.8% yoy, +4.2% qoq) or a DPU of 2.71cents (+15.3% yoy, +4.2% qoq).  Total DPU for FY12 was 10.01 cents (+20.3% yoy), a record-high, and 105% above our estimate.  

Ascott Residence Trust: 3Q12: Delivering The Returns (UOBKH)

Ascott Residence Trust
Share Price S$1.30
Target Price S$1.50
3Q12: Delivering The Returns

ART continued to deliver stable returns on the back of its strong performance in the UK, China and Australia. Trading at forward yields of 7%, it offers one  of the highest yields among hospitality REITs. The recent yield-accretive  acquisition in Germany, AEIs in Belgium, France and Indonesia coupled with healthy demand for selected geographies will drive DPU growth. Maintain BUY and target price of S$1.50.

Results
• Results in line with expectations.  Ascott Residence Trust (ART) reported 3Q12 distributable income  of S$25.6m (+1% yoy) or DPU of 2.24 cents (flat yoy), bringing 9M12  DPU to 6.76 cents (+1% yoy). Results were in line with expectations, representing about 78% of our full-year forecasts.

Mapletree Logistics Trust: 2QFY13: New CEO At The Helm (UOBKH)


Mapletree Logistics Trust
Share Price S$1.16
Target Price S$1.33
2QFY13: New CEO At The Helm

In-line results underscore the stability and high occupancies of the logistics portfolio. We expect new CEO Ms Ng Kiat to chart new directions for MLT with a shift to growth markets combined with a more aggressive AEI schedule in Singapore. The DRP programme that was announced enables option for distributions in units instead of cash, and will enhance MLT’s capital base. Maintain BUY with unchanged TP of S$1.33.

Results
• Results in line with expectations. Mapletree Logistics Trust (MLT) reported a 2QFY13 distributable income of S$41.4m (+1.2% yoy, +0.5% qoq) or a DPU of 1.71 S cents (+1.2% yoy, +0.6% qoq). The 1HFY13 DPU is in line with our expectations, accounting for 48.0% of our fullyear DPU estimate of 7.10 S cents in FY13.

CapitaMall Trust: 3Q12: Reaping The Rewards (UOBKH)


CapitaMall Trust
Share Price S$2.14
Target Price S$2.40
3Q12: Reaping The Rewards

Unitholders will continue to reap the rewards of CMT’s AEI initiatives as the trust moves to complete developments before the year-end holiday season. Upgraded malls at JCube and Bugis+ continue to draw tenants and shoppers. CMT is also taking advantage of the low interest rate environment to lock in long-term financing, issuing debt up to 2024. Maintain BUY with an unchanged TP of S$2.40.

Results
• Results in line with expectations.  CapitaMall Trust (CMT) reported a 3Q12 distributable income of S$80.9m (+4.6% yoy, +1.7% qoq) and a DPU of 2.42 S cents (unchanged yoy, +1.7% qoq).  The 9M12 DPU is in line with our expectations, accounting for 73.2% of our full-year DPU estimate.

• 3Q12 revenues increased 5.1% yoy to S$167.2m while net property income (NPI) increased 4.3% yoy to S$112.0 m, driven by the opening of Bugis+ and JCube and positive rental reversions across its portfolio.    

Sheng Siong Group: The ascension continues (OCBC)

Sheng Siong Group:
Fair value    S$0.49
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.03
versus: Current price  S$0.47

The ascension continues
• Highest quarterly revenue since mid-2010
• Margin improvements on operational efficiencies
• Outlook remains positive

Sheng Siong Group (SSG) registered a stellar set of 3Q12 results that came in well within our expectations. 3Q12 revenue grew 16.0% YoY to S$169.7m on the back of higher comparable same store sales and increased number of stores while net profit jumped 48.1% YoY to S$9.8m on operational efficiencies with the new Mandai Link Distribution Centre. SSG also recorded a third consecutive quarter of gross profit margin recovery (3Q12: 22.9% vs. 2Q12: 21.9%). Entering the seasonally weaker 4Q12, SSG will add an additional two stores in Ghim Moh and Clementi – locales with minimal competition and sizeable resident populations – and will end the year with 33 stores. With favourable responses to its store openings, we expect SSG to close out the year on a strong note. Maintain BUY with an unchanged fair value estimate of S$0.49.

Sunway REIT: Resilient retail sales (CIMB)

Sunway REIT
Current RM1.51
Target RM1.63
Resilient retail sales

 Sunway REIT's 1Q13 core net profit of RM52m was within ours and consensus estimates, making up 25% of estimates. Retail segment continued to drive earnings as the hotel business experienced a seasonal slowdown.

We remain Outperform on Sunway REIT with an unchanged DDM-based target price. Key catalysts would be 1) further asset acquisitions, 2) higher-than-expected rental reversion for 63% of Sunway Pyramid when it expires Sep next year.

麥格理向李澤楷挑戰 電盈賬目被質疑

麥格理向李澤楷挑戰 電盈賬目被質疑

【本報訊】向來以財技見稱的「小小超」李澤楷竟然被質疑賬目「唔清唔楚」!券商麥格理發表一篇名為「When things don't make sense」報告,大數電訊盈科(008)中期業績上的「不可思議事件」,分別指其未有將債券入賬、大量的投資現金淨流出及來自媒體業務的EBITDA(扣除利息、稅項、折舊及攤銷前盈利)應列為虧損。
記者:吳永強

麥格理更狠將電盈評級由跑贏大市「怒劈」至跑輸大市,以及目標價由3.6元降至1.75元。面對麥格理的「指控」,電盈發言人指出麥格理在刊登報告前未有就有關質疑向電盈作出討論及求證,更表明會就任何不實評論保留採取行動的權利。而電盈的股價亦無受「指控」所影響,收市報3.13元,未有升跌。

標普料內銀息差續收窄


標普料內銀息差續收窄
【本報訊】剛公佈第三季度業績的內地銀行板塊,淨息差未見大幅擴闊,部份更見收窄。評級機構標準普爾發表報告指出,人民銀行年內減息兩次,料令淨息差於年底收窄10點子,明年會再收窄20點子,但大型銀行表現料較佳。


標普早前已將內地經濟增長預測下調至7.5%,標普金融機構及董事廖強表示,由於內地經濟增長放緩,勢將對內銀貸款質素造成負面影響,故此不良貸款將不能再維持以往的超低水平,有可能在今、明兩年上升。

不良貸款增 未影響評級
廖強補充稱,由於過去數年,不少地方政府融資金額龐大,至今內銀仍未能解決龐大的地方融資平台問題,估計不良貸款增幅主要來自地方融資平台。

報告王: 美林推薦佐丹奴可跟


報告王: 美林推薦佐丹奴可跟 - 高明


昨天報告連番建功,例如摩通推介中建材(3323),調高目標價,該股升5%,收報10.38元。該股業績不差,符預期,較奇情的反而是佐丹奴(709),業績失望,美林卻推,該股反而升3.6%,收報6.67元。且先看報告內容。

美林美銀發表報告指,佐丹奴今年第三季銷售下跌5%,主要受到中國的銷售下跌7%所致,原因是中秋節假期與黃金周假期相連,加上天氣較暖和,而台灣經濟疲弱亦影響當地銷情。該行預計由10月下旬開始氣溫下降,佐丹奴將會重拾銷售動力,集團中東業務漸趨穩定,加上採購成本有望下降,明年毛利率將續擴張,目標價由7.20上調至7.75元,維持買入評級。

實戰理論: 港股走勢典型牛市

實戰理論: 港股走勢典型牛市 - 沈振盈

資金湧入本港的威力,在市場上正逐步浮現。

港股近期出現典型的牛市走勢,每逢早上一低開,尾市必高收,反映買盤仍有餘未盡,後市料想依然是大漲小回的格局。

中資股始終是今次升浪的主導,而內銀股業績更是令一眾淡友大跌眼鏡,補倉盤源源不絕,值得繼續持有。

昨日以收市價計,四大國有銀行皆以大陽燭高收,準備突破上周五高位。相信今次的升浪,四大行的目標價會直指去年中的高位。

曾淵滄專欄 02.11.2012: 辣招逼熱錢買房託


曾淵滄專欄: 辣招逼熱錢買房託 - 曾淵滄

「曾二招」來勢洶洶,部份地產股曾出現短暫的跌勢,但REITs一點也沒受影響,領匯(823)更是不斷創新高。熱錢大量湧入香港,最佳的投機行為就是玩套息交易(Carry Trade)。

一般的套息交易只集中在貨幣,借入低利率的貨幣,然後購入高利率的貨幣以賺取息差。實際上,套息交易也可以用在收息穩定的REITs上,領匯作為香港第一REIT,自然有捧場者,我是領匯最長期的支持者。

「曾二招」與兩年前的SSD比較,是舊的SSD只趕走炒家,新的「曾二招」連想買樓收租的投資者也趕走了。投資者沒有信心樓價在三年後仍會上升,不敢買了。不敢買樓投資,手頭的餘錢能做甚麼?自然是投入股市,而這些原打算買樓收租的投資者,應該是比較保守的投資者。因此,REITs就成了這些人熱捧的對象。

U Mobile满意现状无意併购

U Mobile满意现状无意併购

吉隆坡1日讯)U Mobile否认欲向绿驶通讯科技(GPACKET,0082,主板科技股)收购其无线宽频公司--Packet One有限公司(P1)的消息。

U Mobile首席执行员贾法杉尼週四向媒体证实,该公司並无意收购P1股权,收购消息纯属谣言。

「P1是我们的竞爭对手。我们对本身所拥有的网络充满信心,目前无意对该公司进行收购行动。」

无论如何,贾法杉尼表示,U Mobile对任何合作机会都保持开放態度。「电讯业者间充满著许多合作的机会,我们一直都在寻找能够加强產品与服务的合作伙伴。」

Hot Stock JCY jumps 3% despite weak HDD outlook


Hot Stock JCY jumps 3% despite weak HDD outlook
Business & Markets 2012

Written by Chong Jin Hun of theedgemalaysia.com  
Thursday, 01 November 2012 11:28

KUALA LUMPUR (Nov 1) – JCY International Bhd jumped as much as 3% in early trade despite analysts pricing in a weaker outlook for the global hard disk drive (HDD) component market .

A dealer said JCY share dynamics could be due to market speculation on the stock. The dealer also said better earnings reported by Taiwanese contract electronic product manufacturers for Apple products could have boosted sentiment for JCY shares.

Landmarks sea-plane plan in place, awaits re-rating

Landmarks sea-plane plan in place, awaits re-rating
Business & Markets 2012

Written by Ho Wah Foon of theedgemalaysia.com  
Thursday, 01 November 2012 12:50

KUALA LUMPUR (Nov 1): As LANDMARKS BHD []’s plan for its sea-plan operation is in place and its Bintan operation will benefit from tourist spillover from Marina Bay Sands/Resorts World Sentosa, the company is poised for a re-rating, said HwangDBS Vickers Research.

In a report focussing on Landmarks today (Thursday), the research house pegged its 12-month target price for the hotel group at RM2.45 per share, much higher than its current share price, citing reasons on gross undervaluation of its assets and its strong balance sheet.

U-Mobile not interested in Packet One Networks



U-Mobile not interested in Packet One Networks
Business & Markets 2012

Written by Syarina Hyzah Zakaria of theedgemalaysia.com  
Thursday, 01 November 2012 13:11

KUALA LUMPUR (Nov 1): Telecommunication and broadband Internet service provider U Mobile Sdn Bhd is not eyeing a stake in Packet One Networks (M) Sdn Bhd (P1), said chief executive officer Jaffa Sany Ariffin.

“We don’t see a need to acquire a stake in P1. We were initially rumoured to be linked to the acquisition but I don’t see the value add of P1 as it is a competitor and we do better than them,” he said after launching a ceremony to mark the activation of its 3G radio access network (RAN) sharing with Maxis Bhd.
“We’re pretty comfortable with the network that we have now,” he added.

More data pointing to China recovery

More data pointing to China recovery
Business & Markets 2012

Written by Cindy Yeap of theedgemalaysia.com  
Thursday, 01 November 2012 13:28
KUALA LUMPUR (Nov 1): There is more evidence that economic recovery in China, a top trading partner for Malaysia, may finally be gaining traction albeit modestly.

The final reading for the HSBC Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose from 47.9 in September to 49.5 in October, just shy of the 50-point mark that separates growth and deterioration in activity. The final October data was at its highest since February and was a 40 basis point-improvement from the preliminary reading of 49.1 for the month.

HLB: Pharmaniaga to revive medical products and services business


HLB: Pharmaniaga to revive medical products and services business
Business & Markets 2012

Written by Ho Ching Ling of theedgemalaysia.com  
Thursday, 01 November 2012 13:45

KUALA LUMPUR (Nov 1): Pharmaceutical products distributor, PHARMANIAGA BHD [] could be in a position to revive its medical products and services business as it continues to catalyse on the government’s prioritisation on health care, according to a report from Hong Leong Investment Bank.

Last week, the group inked a memorandum of understanding (MOU) with Pusat Pakar Dialysis Traktif Sdn Bhd (PPDT) to explore a strategic partnership with the latter in the business of haemodialysis.

DBS results strong; NIM, China are negatives: Bernstein

DBS results strong; NIM, China are negatives: Bernstein

The standout negative from DBS’ results is the continued decline in NIM, says Kevin Kwek, an analyst at Sanford C. Bernstein.

“The reality is (it’s) a reflection of not being able to deploy assets in the face of slower loans growth.” He adds, another negative is from China. “Contribution from China is in fact very small. Still, no one wants to hear China is affecting the group.”

DBS CEO Piyush Gupta said he expected loans to grow about 10% both this year and next, down from 2011’s 28% growth, which was largely on opportunistic trade finance business in China; Gupta said DBS saw a trade-related slowdown, including China margin reduction.

Goldman tips downside risks to Golden Agri earnings


Goldman tips downside risks to Golden Agri earnings

Goldman Sachs tips downside risks to Golden Agri’s earnings after its subsidiary, Sinar Mas Agro Resources (SMART), reported 3Q12 results.

It notes SMART, which comprised about 32% of Golden Agri’s 2011 fresh-fruit-bunch production and owns all of its refineries, reported 3Q12 core net profit excluding forex rose 1% on-quarter to IDR513 billion ($65.2 million), with 10% on-quarter FFB production growth and 29% on-quarter sales growth offset by EBIT margins’ decline to 10% from 2Q12’s 12%.

While noting SMART is only one part of Golden Agri’s operations, with its earnings trend not necessarily reflecting the wider group, GS adds the flat on-quarter performance indicates downside risks to its 2012 forecasts, which are in-line with consensus, especially if the refineries didn’t sell through and liquidate as much inventory as expected.

Biosensors shares down at 20-month low

Biosensors shares down at 20-month low

Shares of Biosensors International fell as much as 5.5% to a 20-month low, which OCBC Investment Research attributed to ongoing concerns over the impact of mandatory price cuts in stents in countries including India, China and Japan.

By 12:36 p.m., Biosensors shares were down 2.8% at $1.055 with 6.8 million shares traded, 1.5 times its average daily volume over the last five sessions. Its shares have plunged 26% since the start of the year, compared with the 25.4% rise in the FTSE ST Mid Cap Index.

OCBC noted that Terumo Corp, which licenses Biosensors’ drug-eluting stent technology for a royalty fee, said sales of one of its Nobori drug-eluting stent in Japan were hurt by an official price cut by the National Health Insurance and rising competition from new product launches.

STI already pricing in China PMI: UOB


STI already pricing in China PMI: UOB

Singapore’s STI remains mired in negative territory, not getting any fillip from China’s October PMI data, with the HSBC final PMI at an eight-month high of 49.5, while the official PMI rose to 50.2, growth territory, from September’s 49.8.

“The muted reaction is because it’s more or less priced in,” says Lee Sue Ann, treasury economist at UOB, noting China data last week already started showing signs of stabilisation. “The kind of muted reaction we’re seeing is due to overall sentiment (remaining) weak due to overall issues in the West,” she says. “At the end of the day, the situation in the US and Europe is still hovering.”

China Starts Growing Again


珊迪颶風又可能將給紐約市帶來多大損傷?


今天是摩台指結算交易日,外資在十月份空單大舉獲勝


Still Too Early to Say China's Recovery is Underway: Pro


Where to Next for Asian Markets?


《财经中间站》苹果股价跌破600美元 用户忠诚度首次下降

《财经中间站》苹果股价跌破600美元 用户忠诚度首次下降
http://www.sina.com.cn 2012年11月01日 第一财经《财经中间站》

America Will Recover & Rebuild!


China's Economic Decline Will Continue: Pro


Look for Value in Asia's 'Tiger Cubs'


7-8% Growth is the New Normal for China


上投摩根:新兴市场货币再度升值


香港13天六次干预汇率 热钱借道地下钱庄入内地


险资三季度加仓银行股 较二季度劲增47%


《财经早班车》 美联邦政府年底或触碰公共债务上限

《财经早班车》 美联邦政府年底或触碰公共债务上限
http://www.sina.com.cn 2012年11月01日 宁夏卫视《财经早班车》

《环球第一财经》小摩:预计今年全年中国GDP增速7.6%

《环球第一财经》小摩:预计今年全年中国GDP增速7.6%
http://www.sina.com.cn 2012年10月31日 宁夏卫视《财经夜行线》

《环球第一财经》美国观察:国债钟之殇

《环球第一财经》美国观察:国债钟之殇
http://www.sina.com.cn 2012年10月31日 宁夏卫视《财经夜行线》

More Pain for Apple?


Will Apple Get Out of Its Funk?


Thursday, November 1, 2012

中资银行业绩前景堪忧

中资银行业绩前景堪忧
英国《金融时报》 欧阳德 北京报道 2012-11-01 (www.ftchinese.com)

中国各银行第三季度盈利可观,然而分析师认为银行可能难以维持这种亮丽表现,因为处境艰难的企业部门正开始给它们带来压力。

不过目前各银行打消了人们的这种担忧。最近一周内中国各大银行公布,第三季度净利润同比增长10%到20%之间,超出了大多数人的预期。从业绩报告来看,人们长期担忧的银行信贷质量仍然非常健康。

与银行巨额盈利表现同时出现的,是中国第三季度经济增长率只有7.4%,这令今年很可能成为十多年来中国经济最疲弱的一年。

16项市值244亿 大马产托亚太排第4

16项市值244亿 大马产托亚太排第4
Created 11/01/2012 - 12:23
(新加坡31日讯)亚太房地产协会(APREA)彼得米切尔表示,马来西亚目前拥有16项产业投资信托(REITS),市值达到80亿美元(244亿令吉),在亚洲区域排名第4。

在击退诸多限制,加上实行有利的税务条例,而且采用最佳策略后,大马的产托在近年已大幅增长。

米切尔以电邮接受访谈时表示,自三年前成立以来,大马产托是亚太房地产协会奖项的常胜军。

询及大马产托所面对的挑战,以及继续推动该行业,米切尔表示,其中的挑战是产托的流通率和规模。

怡保花园财团未与捷运局签约 联营台北双子星未定案


怡保花园财团未与捷运局签约 联营台北双子星未定案
Created 11/01/2012 - 12:27
(吉隆坡31日讯)怡保花园(IGB,1597,主板产业股)表示,台北双子星联合开发案仍需与台北市政府进一步谈判,另外,由大马怡保花园伙同谷中城公司及日商太极双星国际组成的团队、仍未与台北市政府捷运工程局签署任何协议。

大马怡保花园针对本地媒体报道向马交所报备,尽管太极双星团队已成功得标,但仍需与台北市政府进一步协商。

同时,团队也未和台北市政府捷运工程局签署实质协议。

文告披露,太极双星于5月16日上呈投标书予台北市捷运工程局,以竞标台北双子星联合开发案。

China top four banks set for weakest annual profit growth since IPOs


The Star Online  Business
Thursday November 1, 2012

China top four banks set for weakest annual profit growth since IPOs

HONG KONG: China's top four banks are on course for their weakest annual profit growth since going public, as the central bank's interest rate cuts in the middle of the year kick in, slicing lending margins.

After posting profit gains of more than 20% for years, the so-called “Big Four”, led by Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Ltd (ICBC), are expected to report growth of as little as 5% in 2012, according to Thomson Reuters Starmine.

That would be the slimmest growth since China Construction Bank Corp (CCB) became the first of the four to list in 2005, following the central bank's interest rate cuts in June and July.

Asian REIT resilient, set to grow significantly

The Star Online
 Business
Thursday November 1, 2012

Asian REIT resilient, set to grow significantly

SINGAPORE: The potential for further growth in the Asian Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) market is significant as it should continue to benefit from powerful cyclical and long-term trends that should drive future growth.

Asia Pacific Real Estate Association (APREA) chief executive officer Peter Mitchell said the REIT structure continued to be a fundamental driver of the securitisation of real estate holdings around the globe.

“It has proved remarkably resilient in the face of the global financial crisis, particularly in Asia because of their transparent and liquid characteristics.

Ethiopian Airlines plans major tie-up with MAS soon


The Star Online  Business
Thursday November 1, 2012

Ethiopian Airlines plans major tie-up with MAS soon

By SHARIDAN M. ALI
sharidan@thestar.com.my

SEPANG: Ethiopian Airlines, the national flag carrier of Ethiopia, plans to work with Malaysia Airlines (MAS) in a big way as soon as early next year.

Ethiopian Airlines senior vice-president of global sales Esayas Woldemariam said the carrier planned to work on code sharing and special pro-rate agreement with its Malaysian counterpart.

各書己見:A50博反彈 衡量風險

各書己見:A50博反彈 衡量風險
十月恒指創下今年新高,反觀A股表現則落後得多,滬綜指十月份雖有反彈,但力度不足,50日線得而復失。雖然如此,資金於今年大部分時間卻是積極部署安碩A50中國(02823)相關認購證的,流入總金額數目頗大,投資者在博反彈同時,亦要注意相關風險。

滬綜指由五月初開始,表現相當不濟,期間甚至連所謂的「鑽石底」亦告失守,並於九月二十六日至最低的1,999點。然而,技術上,該股持續出現牛背馳走勢,包括MACD及RSI等技術指標由八月份至今已出現三浪背馳走勢,是否代表反彈隨時出現呢?

持這種想法的人不少,A50股價五月初高見11.48元,隨A股反覆跌至九月五日低位9.02元,而自五月三日至上周五期間流入A50購證資金達2.68億元,截至周一的五個交易日A50再回落,吸引逾7,250萬元資金流入,是過去一年最多資金流入購證的五個交易日。

中遠虧損擴30% 同系俱蝕


中遠虧損擴30% 同系俱蝕
航運股九月底止季績「驚嚇」,去年勁蝕百億的中國遠洋(01919)首三季虧損擴大逾30%至逾64億元(人民幣‧下同);中海集運(02866)期內盈利雖升逾2倍,但主要受惠於營業外收入,首三季實際上錄得經營虧損逾10億元。至於中海發展(01138)首三季則轉盈為虧,並與中國遠洋一齊發全年盈警。

中集首三季蝕10.8億
中國遠洋第三季營業總收入按年升4.54%至190.58億元,虧損收窄34.05%至15.31億元,每股虧損為0.15元;首3季累計蝕64.02億元,按年擴大34.04%。

公司同時為全年業績發盈警,預料因為乾散貨運價持續低迷,以及油價等成本處高位,今年度將錄虧損。

美银美林上调中国经济增长预期


美银美林上调中国经济增长预期

我们通过把最近中国经济出现的全面复苏绿芽考虑在内,并且按照中国发布的一系列最新数据对我们内部统计模型加以微调,现在决定上调我们对中国国内生产总值(GDP)在2012年及2013年全年的增长预期。我们把2012年第四季度的GDP同比增速预期从7.5%上调至7.8%,把2012年全年的GDP同比增速预期从7.6%上调至7.7%。至于2013年,我们对该年全年的GDP同比增速预期从7.6%上调至8.1%,而2013年1-4季度的GDP季度同比增速预期分别为8.3%、8.3%、8.0%和8.0%。至于2014年,我们预计全年的GDP同比增速将会放缓至7.7%(点击此处查看完整报告)。

中国经济此番复苏的形态既非U型也非L型

比亚迪第三季度盈利同比暴跌94%

比亚迪第三季度盈利同比暴跌94%

据中国汽车与电池制造企业比亚迪昨晚发布的最新季度财报显示,在截至9月份的三个月期间,该公司继续着举步维艰的颠簸旅程。巴菲特旗下的伯克希尔-哈撒韦公司拥有该公司10%的股份。

该公司第三季度盈利比去年同期暴跌94%,销售收入及汽车销量双双出现下滑。当季销售收入同比下滑10.7%,至105亿元(合17亿美元),而净利润只有406万元(合73万美元)。

总部位于深圳的比亚迪第三季度汽车销量为77,004辆,较去年同期下滑18%。这与中国汽车市场总体在第三季度增长4.3%形成鲜明的对比。比亚迪表示,预计该公司本年度净利润将从去年的13.8亿元人民币下滑92%。

工行盈利能力存憂


工行盈利能力存憂
大型內銀第三季息差表現勝同儕,工行(01398)、建行(00939)及中行(03988)淨利息收益率均按季擴闊,在內地減息及利率市場化的不利環境下逆流而上。不過,工行行長楊凱生於分析員會議上警告,該行未來有六成貸款需重新定價,淨利息收益率將面對一定壓力。

楊凱生表示,工行首三季淨利息收益率微升至2.67%,較今年上半年微升1點子,主要是由於債券投資回報增加,以及七成存款已重新定價,但該行貸款僅四成完成重新定價,意味今年第四季及明年的淨利息收益率,將面對一定壓力。

瑞信料資金成本上升
瑞信認為,工行第三季的定存比例升至51%,較六月底時升約3個百分點,亦可能會對工行的資金成本造成壓力。

有聲有識:A股ETF應多加認識


有聲有識:A股ETF應多加認識
隨着內地宏觀經濟及企業盈利呈築底回升的迹象,追蹤A股的ETF再度成為投資者的追捧對象。目前在本港掛牌的A股ETF約30隻,追蹤綜合或個別行業的A股表現。不過,大部分的A股ETF,包括交易量最大的安碩A50中國(02823)均以合成方式進行,即運用金融衍生工具模擬相關指數表現,故涉及買入衍生工具及抵押品,並須承擔交易對手風險。

兩類產品各具特性
然而,自內地推出人民幣合格境外機構投資者(RQFII)後,實物ETF應運而生,即通過RQFII額度,直接投資於相關追蹤指數的股票,而至今本港共推出4隻RQFII的A股ETF。

有別於合成ETF,由於不涉及衍生產品,故沒有這方面的成本。其中,華夏滬深300指數ETF(03188)為本港第二隻「雙櫃台」交易的基金,即可分別於港元櫃台或人民幣櫃台進行二手市場交易,兩種貨幣可以互相轉換。

最佳選澤:內險股隨A股起動


最佳選澤:內險股隨A股起動
港匯強勢,熱錢憧憬下帶動港股做好,加上外圍期貨在港股開市時段普遍向上,令恒指向上回到10日線。雖然昨日大部分時間只徘徊於21,550點水平,惟收市前再次向上,最終全日升1%,以21,641點高收,成交479億元。收市後見金管局再沽出27億港元,在利好氣氛下,留意本周可能上試21,800點水平。

不少資金正等待美國總統選舉結果,以及中共十八大的情況,相信十一月中後股市較為反覆,故現時向上可先看22,000點阻力水平;惟如再試不破,很大可能會回到20,800點早前徘徊區之下,由於高位角力已有一段時間,故應該在月中前,好淡可分出勝負。若然於開會前後傳出任何好消息,A股有機會趁勢反撲展開升浪,並可能帶領各內險公司的投資收入上升,因而刺激該系列股價進一步上升。因為當A股市況好轉時,投資收益便會大幅上升,所以在A股上升時,板塊特別受投資者追捧。

佐丹奴銷售挫5%


佐丹奴銷售挫5%

佐丹奴(00709)昨日公布,截至今年九月底止,第三季銷售額按年倒退4.79%至12.7億元,整體同店銷售錄得下跌2%,而去年同期則上升11%,不過集團存貨對成本之流轉日數則按年下跌9日至73日。分析員表示,佐丹奴的情況屬市場預期之內,更指其控制存貨上較同行優勝。該股昨最多跌2.3%,收市報6.44元,微跌0.92%。

累計首九個月,佐丹奴銷售額按年微降0.37%至39.68億元,毛利率按年下降1.1個百分點至57.9%,惟同店銷售下跌1%,相對去年同期為增長13%。集團擁有的門市數目達2,704間,期間淨增加33間,惟較去年度的新開店數目則大幅減慢,而且於第三季更減少19間門市。

現金13億助捱低潮

在零售業面對存貨高企的困擾下,佐丹奴主席兼行政總裁劉國權曾於中期業績會上強調,「會繼續清理存貨,目標是減少多10日」,而集團上半年存貨周轉天數按年減10日至60日。然而至九月底止,存貨周轉天數高達73日,惟已較去年同期下降9日。

工行預警淨息添壓


工行預警淨息添壓

三家大型內銀第三季息差表現勝同儕,工行(01398)、建行(00939)及中行(03988)淨利息收益率均按季擴闊,在內地減息及利率市場化的不利環境下逆流而上。

不過,工行行長楊凱生於分析員會議上警告,該行未來有六成貸款需要重新定價,料淨利息收益率將會面對一定的壓力。

楊凱生表示,工行首三季淨利息收益率微升至2.67%,較今年上半年微升1點子,主要是由於債券投資回報增加,以及七成存款已重新定價,但該行貸款僅四成完成重新定價,意味今年第四季及明年的淨利息收益率,將面對一定壓力。

释放更高价值收窄估值差距 云顶或分拆博彩业


释放更高价值收窄估值差距 云顶或分拆博彩业
Created 10/31/2012 - 10:53
(吉隆坡30日讯)分析员认为,云顶(Genting,3182,主板贸服股)有很大的重组潜能,即把博彩业务整合及把非博彩业务分拆以释放更高价值。

联昌国际研究分析员表示,很多投资者抱怨,云顶(Genting,3182,主板贸服股)旗下业务结构风马牛不相及,压抑应有的估值。

“结构争议主要在于云顶是全球性博彩财团、还是多元化财团?

一个以娱乐业务为根基的集团,却持有如种植和油气业务,跟博彩业务风马牛不相及。”

他指出,从估值来看,云顶相较其他全球对手存明显“障碍”。

下跌股 城中城产业 RM5.95支撑


下跌股 城中城产业 RM5.95支撑
Created 10/31/2012 - 11:34
城中城产业(KLCCP,5089,主板产业股)遭受卖压,日线股价趋势跌破6.00令吉支撑后,终场时收5.96令吉,按日跌8仙或1.33%。城中城产业股价趋势已进入回调,且开始调整,短期内会设法在5.80-5.95令吉间寻找支撑。

30/10/12行情

Huaneng Power International:3Q12: Net Profit Up 65% qoq (UOBKH)


Huaneng Power International
Share Price HK$6.01
Target Price HK$7.00
3Q12: Net Profit Up 65% qoq, Maintain BUY On Further Earnings Growth Potential

Huaneng released strong 3Q12 results with net profit up by 757% yoy and 65% qoq thanks to low coal price. Going forward, we expect the stable coal price outlook as well as easing monetary cycle will continue to boost earnings in both 4Q12 and 2013. Maintain BUY. Target price: HK$7.00.

Results
 Net profit of Rmb1,986m, up by 757% yoy and 65% qoq. Huaneng Power International (Huaneng) released its 3Q12 results under PRC GAAP yesterday. Net profit surged by 757% yoy and 65% qoq to Rmb1,986m. The strong earnings pick-up is broadly in line with market expectations.

Lion Industries:Buying landlord’s building (MIDF)


Lion Industries Bhd
Price (24th October 2012) RM1.11
Target Price RM1.18
Buying landlord’s building

• Acquiring Wisma Amsteel Building at RM24.1m
• Funding not an issue due to RM569m cash pile, minimal impact on earnings as rental saving is only RM1.1m, against RM5.5b opex last financial year.
• Maintain Neutral at RM1.18 due to industry fundamentals

Buying landlord’s building. Lion Industries, in a Bursa statement yesterday is acquiring the entire 100% equity interest in Lion Metal Industries Sdn Bhd (LMI) for a cash consideration of RM24.1m (RM114.1 psf).

Who’s LMI? LMI owns an industrial premise known as Wisma Amsteel situated within Kawasan Industri Bukit Raja, Klang, Selangor. The industrial premise comprises a 3-storey office building with an annexed single storey factory and 2 blocks of single storey factory. As at June 2011, net book value of the Wisma Amsteel is RM10.4m. Amsteel Mills Sdn Bhd is a 99%-owned subsidiary of Lion Industries. It is the main tenant of the building, occupying 80.5% of the total tenanted area. Amsteel is manufacturer of steel bars, wire rods, flat bars, and angle bars and contribute significantly to Lion Industries’ topline.

Bank of China: 3Q12: Decent Results But Not Likely To Be Sustained (UOBKH)


Bank of China
Share Price HK$3.15
Target Price HK$3.25
3Q12: Decent Results But Not Likely To Be Sustained

Earnings beat consensus by 4.3%, mainly due to better NIM and lowerthan-expected credit cost. Despite the results being share-price positive, we see limited upside after the recent rally. The better earnings are unlikely to be sustainable as loans will continue to be re-priced at lower rates after the recent rate cuts. We also expect higher provisioning charges in 4Q12. Maintain HOLD. Target price: HK$3.25. Entry price is HK$2.90.

Results
 Better-than-expected earnings. Bank of China (BOC) reported 3Q12 net profit of Rmb34.8b, up 16.6% yoy, beating consensus by 4.3% and our estimate by 4.8%. We attribute the better-than-expected results to a slight NIM expansion, higher-than-expected net trading gain and lowerthan- expected provision charges.

Aviation : 2QFY13 Results Preview And SIA’s US$7.5b Fleet Renewal (UOBKH)

Aviation – Singapore
2QFY13 Results Preview And SIA’s US$7.5b Fleet Renewal

Expect a mixed bag of results. SIA is expected to show yoy decline, while Tiger Airways’ losses are expected to narrow but still show elevated losses from Australia. SATS should fare better with an 8% gain in net profit, but concern over fallout from the Japan-China territorial dispute should cap upside. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT.

What’s New
 We provide the earnings forecast for Singapore aviation stocks. SIA Engineering (SIAEC) will kick start the reporting season on 30 Oct 12, followed by SIA on 2 Nov 12, and SATS on 6 Nov 12.

 SIA announced a major fleet renewal programme with the acquisition of five A380s and 20 A350s with a list  price of US$7.5b. Delivery will commence in 2017. Low-cost carrier (LCC) arm Scoot will take over SIA’s earlier 20 B787s delivery commencing in 2014.

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: Results within expectations (S&P)

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT
Price: SGD1.47 Date: October 24, 2012
Results Review
• Results within expectations. AIMS’ 2QFY13 (Mar) results were within our expectations. Overall, AIMS managed to grow its gross revenue by 3% QoQ to SGD21.6 mln in 2QFY13. The increase in 2QFY13 rental was due to: (i) positive rental reversion; (ii) full contribution from two tenants at 3 Toh Tuck Link; and (iii) higher occupancy. AIMS continued to see lease renewal and positive rental reversions in 2QFY13 - 12.8% of its portfolio’s lettable area was renewed at a weighted average increase in rental of 17.3%. Moreover, its portfolio’s lease expiry exposure for FY13 has been lowered to 9.9% in 2QFY13 from 35.7% in 2QFY12.

• Higher DPU in 2HFY13. AIMS indicated that the redevelopment of 20 Gul Way project, upon completion of Phase 1 in December 2012 and positive rental reversions, will improve DPU in 2HFY13. AIMS is distributing 98.8% of its taxable income available for distribution for 2QFY13, amounting to SGD11.2 mln or a DPU of 2.5 cents (an annualized DPU yield of 6.8%).

Sabana Shari’ah Compliant Industrial REIT: 3Q12 results within expectations (S&P)


Sabana Shari’ah Compliant Industrial REIT
Price: SGD1.14 Date: October 22, 2012

Results Review
• 3Q12 results within expectations. Sabana’s 3Q12 results were broadly in line with our expectations, with its 3Q12 net income accounting 23% of our 2012 forecast. However, due to a net loss in future value financial derivatives (EI loss) of SGD2.0 mln, total return after tax amounted to only 19% of our forecast. Similarly, its 9M12 total return after tax accounted for only 66% of our full year forecast, but excluding the EI loss, its total return was broadly in line with our forecast. Sabana declared a higher DPU of 2.34 cents in 3Q12 vs. 2.27 cents in 2Q12 and 2.14 cents in 3Q11, and is equivalent to an annualized DPU of 9.36 cents, and bringing its 9M12 DPU to 6.86 cents.

• 3Q12 revenue rose 17% YoY. Sabana posted a 16.7% YoY rise in gross revenue to SGD20.3 mln in 3Q12 from SGD17.4 mln in 3Q11, due mainly to contribution from its five new properties, which were acquired in 4Q11. Similarly, property expenses rose 42% YoY, due to higher expenses from new properties.

K-Green Trust: o Major 3Q Surprises, Awaiting Acquisition Catalysts (S&P)

K-Green Trust
Price: SGD1.02
Fair value: SGD1.13 - SGD1.22
Date: October 16, 2012

No Major 3Q Surprises, Awaiting Acquisition Catalysts
 Fine-tuning our profit forecasts marginally higher. KGT’s 3Q12 performance was largely in-line with expectations, making up 78% of our full year net profit estimate of SGD14.6 mln. As we think it’s possible for 4Q12 earnings to be slightly stronger than 3Q due to seasonal factors, we have lifted our assumptions marginally. The main changes are a higher selling price for electricity and raised inflation benchmark assumptions for the near term. As a result, we now see 2012 net profit at SGD14.8 mln (up from SGD14.6 mln) and 2013 net profit at SGD15.0 mln. Since these are only minor changes, our fair value range from KGT remains at SGD1.13 – SGD1.22. Operating cash flow is positive at SGD12.9 mln (+26.5% YoY) in 3Q12 and we see little risk to our 2H12 DPU of 4.69 cents.

Sheng Siong : Spot on track (KE)

Sheng Siong Group
Buy(unchanged)
Share price: SGD0.475
Target price: SGD0.52 (unchanged)
Spot on track

Stellar results. 3Q12 results are in line with ours and consensus’s expectations, accounting for 75% of our core profit estimates. Sheng Siong reported 3Q12 sales of SGD169.7m, up 16% YoY, and net profit of 9.8m, up 48.1% YoY. Our positive outlook for Sheng Siong remains unchanged, with expansion plans on track to open two additional stores by year end. We expect further margin to improve as benefits of the new warehouse have begun to actualize this quarter, and continue onto the next. Reiterate buy on a highly defensive sector coupled with steady growth.

Healthy margin improvement. Sheng Siong’s YoY sales growth was driven by six new outlets which began operations this year. Comparable same store sales grew 4.3% YoY to SGD434. Margin pressures from store openings and heavy competition appear to have subsided with the gap between cost of sales and sales narrowing. Gross margin has climbed by 1ppt QoQ to 22.9%, while operating margin is up 1.4ppt QoQ to 6.3%.

Hutchison Port Hldgs Trust: Chugging Along at the Core (KE)

Hutchison Port Hldgs Trust
Buy (unchanged)
Share price: USD0.820
Target price: USD0.925 (unchanged)
Chugging Along at the Core

 3Q/9M2012 results largely in line. Hutchison Port Holdings Trust (HPHT) reported 9M2012 EBITDA of HKD5.26b, that made up 73% of our FY2012 EBITDA estimates, results of which were distorted slightly by FX losses which had a total impact of ~HKD80m. Adjusting for this impact, HPHT’s 3Q2012 core EBITDA of HKD1.92b declined only marginally by 1% YoY, and was largely in line with ours and consensus expectations.

9M2012 throughput +6% YoY, but on Transhipment cargo. HPHT recorded throughput growth of 6% YoY for 9M2012. For 3Q2012, HIT throughput increased 5.6% YoY, while YICT throughput increased 9.7% YoY. However both HIT and YICT’s higher throughput were primarily due to the growth in Transhipment cargo, and that correspondingly affected core EBITDA margins by ~2 percentage points. We believe this effect should be mitigated when the global economy picks up, with more higher-margin O&D cargo handled.

Frasers Centrepoint Trust: Yet another new high (DMG)

Frasers Centrepoint Trust: Yet another new high
 (BUY,  S$1.905,  TP: S$2.100)

4QFY12 DPU better than expected. Frasers Centrepoint Trust (FCT) reported a 4QFY12 DPU of 2.71S¢ (+15.3% YoY). Together with the dividend distributed in the first 3Q of FY12, total DPU came in at 10.01S¢ (+20.3% YoY), outperforming our FY12 DPU forecasts by 5.4%. Revenue for 4QFY12 grew to S$39.0m (+14.3% YoY) while net property income rose to S$28.7m (+13.7% YoY). These strong growths are mainly attributed to strong contributions from Causeway Point (CWP), full year contributions from Bedok Point and positive growth in all other malls. Going forward, we expect FCT to continue to register stronger numbers on the back of 1) increased contributions from CWP as average occupancy and rental rates continue to pick up from its lows during the initial stage of AEI and 2) positive rental reversions in suburban malls to continue. Given FCT’s defensive portfolio, potential to acquire Changi CityPoint in FY13 coupled with the continual interest in high dividend plays amid a strong Singapore dollars and a prolonged low-interest rate environment, we maintain BUY call on FCT with an upward revision in our DDM based (COE: 8.0%, terminal growth: 2.0%) TP of S$2.10

Frasers Centrepoint Trust:Making waves again (DBSV)


Frasers Centrepoint Trust
BUY S$1.91
Price Target : 12-Month S$ 2.04 (Prev S$ 1.93)
Making waves again

• A set of in-line results
• Steady performance supported by healthy rental reversion and acquisitions catalyst in the pipeline
• Maintain BUY at a higher TP of S$2.04

Highlights
Meeting the mark again. FCT’s 4Q12 topline and NPI grew by about 14% and 13% respectively as the REIT continued to reap the benefits of rental uplift at Causeway Point, post AEI works, and the additional contribution from Bedok Point that was acquired in August 2011. Rental reversion for the quarter was 8.2% supported by close to 100% occupancy (excluding Causeway Point which is undergoing AEI works). Consequently DPU came at 2.71 ct, putting the full-year DPU at 10.01 cts. This was 20.3% y-o-y and 5% higher than our FY12 forecast but is in line with street estimates. The outperformance was largely coming due to the better performance for Yew Tee Point and Anchor Point. FCT also took in a revaluation gain of 100.7 m translating to a 8.5% increase in NAV to S$1.53. The revaluation gain was largely driven by Causeway Point, post AEI works and the improved earning power of Northpoint with a 15 bbp and 40 bbp cap rate seen in Northpoint, Yew Tee Point and Anchorpoint..

Warren E. Buffett(沃伦•巴菲特)
Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful
别人贪婪时我恐惧, 别人恐惧时我贪婪
投资只需学好两门课: 一,是如何给企业估值,二,是如何看待股市波动
吉姆·罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)
“错过时机”胜于“搞错对象”:不会全军覆没!”
做自己熟悉的事,等到发现大好机会才投钱下去

乔治·索罗斯(George Soros)

“犯错误并没有什么好羞耻的,只有知错不改才是耻辱。”

如果操作过量,即使对市场判断正确,仍会一败涂地。

李驰(中国巴菲特)
高估期间, 卖对, 不卖也对, 买是错的。
低估期间, 买对, 不买也是对, 卖是错的。

Tan Teng Boo


There’s no such thing as defensive stocks.Every stock can be defensive depending on what price you pay for it and what value you get,
冷眼(冯时能)投资概念
“买股票就是买公司的股份,买股份就是与陌生人合股做生意”。
合股做生意,则公司股份的业绩高于一切,而股票的价值决定于盈利。
价值是本,价格是末,故公司比股市重要百倍。
曹仁超-香港股神/港股明灯
1.有智慧,不如趁势
2.止损不止盈
成功者所以成功,是因为不怕失败!失败者所以失败,是失败后不再尝试!
曾淵滄-散户明灯
每逢灾难就是机会,而是在灾难发生时贱价买股票,然后放在一边,耐性地等灾难结束
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