Saturday, October 13, 2012

MIDCAP-Mudajaya most attractive in Malaysia's industrials sector


MIDCAP-Mudajaya most attractive in Malaysia's industrials sector

Mudajaya Group Bhd looks the most attractive among 26 stocks in Malaysia's industrials sector tracked by at least three analysts, data from Thomson Reuters StarMine shows.

The company has a Relative Valuation (RV) model score of 96, the highest in the sector. The higher the score, the cheaper the stock. It also has high Value-Momentum (Val-Mo) and Earnings Quality (EQ) scores of 92 and 99 respectively. A near-perfect Smartholdings (SH) score of 99 suggests a potential increase in institutional ownership.

Mudajaya's net margin and free cash flow (FCF) for 2011 exceed industry average by 12.3 percent and 8.8 percent respectively. Its FCF for the six months ending June 2012, at 229 million ringgit was an increase of over 20 times from a year earlier. Its net income stayed stable at 60 million ringgit during the same period.

Of the four analysts tracking the stock, three give it a "strong buy" or "buy" rating while one has a "hold".

The stock currently trades at 23 percent of its intrinsic value of 11.79 ringgit. It is up over 22 percent so far this year, while the broader index has gained 8.15 percent for the same period, as of Thursday's close.

On the other end of the spectrum, Malaysian Resources Corporation is the most expensive stock in the sector with an RV score of 8.

CONTEXT:

The builder and developer reported a 57 percent increase in second-quarter revenue at 559 million ringgit from a year ago while net income remained flat at 60 million ringgit.

StarMine's Relative Valuation model combines six different ratios that measure a company's valuation and then ranks it compared with all other stocks in the same region.

StarMine's Val-Mo model provides a 1-100 percentile ranking of stocks and rates companies based on a combination of value and momentum metrics.

全城聚焦「十八大」


近年內地經濟、政治事件對港股影響愈來愈大,能順應國策投資往往事半功倍。將於11月8日召開的中國共產黨第十八次全國代表大會(十八大),料會落實中共領導層換屆,是近年內地最重要的政經大事。「十八大」的結果及影響,值得投資者高度關注。

中共全國代表大會每五年舉行一次,由中央委員會召集,今年為第十八次,故有「十八大」之稱。

從1978年實施改革開放政策以來,內地政經環境漸趨穩定。自1982年的「十二大」開始,中共全國代表大會實現這五年一次定期化的最高領導人會議。

Boom time seen for oil and gas

The Star Online > Business
Saturday October 13, 2012
Boom time seen for oil and gas

By TEE LIN SAY
linsay@thestar.com.my

WITH more oil finds and disruptive technologies coming onstream, the level of merger and acquisition (M&A) activity in the oil and gas sector is set to increase.

It’s going to be a boon for oil and gas service providers as the abundance of opportunities propel these companies to expand into new regions and grow bigger through acquisitions, say oil and gas experts from Ernst & Young.

Slumping CPO price hurting income


The Star Online > Business
Saturday October 13, 2012
Slumping CPO price hurting income

By FINTAN NG
fintan@thestar.com.my

THE steady drop in the price of crude palm oil (CPO) this year is already eroding the incomes of households relying on the crop. And there is no telling when prices will start to rise again to a level which producers are comfortable with, generally considered to be around the RM2,800 per tonne level.

The price of CPO has fallen nearly 42% (as of Thursday’s close) from its peak on March 3, 2008, when it hit RM4,330 per tonne.

依市价征4.5%-8.5% 原棕油出口税下调


依市价征4.5%-8.5% 原棕油出口税下调
Created 10/13/2012 - 10:08
(吉隆坡12日讯)我国政府宣布,把原棕油出口税从原本的23%,调低到4.5%至8.5%,同时也冻结原棕油免出口税固打制,明年1月1日起生效。

种植与原产业部今日发文告宣布,为了加强国内油棕业的竞争力,在出口价格方面能与其他出口国竞争,所以决定调整原油棕出口税架构。

“此外,我国棕油提炼业者此后也能在全球市场,以具备竞争力的价格来销售产品。”

目前,我国的原油棕出口税为23%,以及有500万公吨的原棕油免出口税固打制。

配合此项宣布,种植与原产业部长柏纳东博指出,我国原棕油出口税率将根据市场价格来计算。

Stabilising CPO prices


The Star Online > Business
Saturday October 13, 2012
Stabilising CPO prices

By HANIM ADNAN
nem@thestar.com.my

MALAYSIA may rank as the world’s second largest crude palm oil (CPO) producer after Indonesia but in terms of pricing, the local CPO traded both on the spot and futures market has been the global pricing benchmark for the commodity trading worldwide for more than two decades.

Therefore, when Malaysia’s CPO price plunged to a three-year low last week with the lowest trade clocked in at below RM2,200 per tonne, it caused strong jitters particularly among major producing nations, players and investors in the entire oil palm value chain.

Asia Media share price drop ‘temporary’, says CEO


The Star Online  Business
Saturday October 13, 2012
Asia Media share price drop ‘temporary’, says CEO

By DANIEL KHOO      
danielkhoo@thestar.com.my

PETALING JAYA: Asia Media Group Bhd, the hot stock in the news following the steep plunge of its share price by over 150% in the last few days, expects the share price to “stablise” sooner or later, said its chief executive officer Datuk Ricky Wong.

He said he had no idea what was causing the drastic drop in the share price but added he was sure the panic selldown was temporary.

中国GDP料增7.7% 四季触底明年返8

中国GDP料增7.7% 四季触底明年返8
http://paper.wenweipo.com   [2012-10-13]

 中国社科院昨日发布2012年秋季报告预测,今年中国GDP增长速度为7.7%左右,为1999年以来最低增长水平,但比年初「两会」政府工作报告预测的7.5%为高,而明年将温和回升至8.2%。报告建议,鉴于当前经济下行压力仍然较大,2013年继续实施积极的财政政策和稳健的货币政策,适当扩大赤字规模,加大结构性减税力度,适当减低增值税的标准税率。  ■香港文汇报记者 海岩

 这份由中国社科院「中国经济形势分析与预测」课题组撰写的报告指出,当前中国经济增长仍处于低位运行,尽管出现触底企稳的积极因素,但基础还不牢固,下行压力较大。报告的课题负责人之一、社科院经济学部主任陈佳贵预计,第三季度GDP增速进一步降至7.3%,比第二季度回落0.3个百分点,四季度则触底小幅回升至7.5%以上。

全年CPI 2.7%
 报告认为,当前中国经济存在的主要问题包括,「产能过剩问题突出,企业经济效益明显下降;在不同的地方利益博弈下,工业结构调整进展依然缓慢;低水平同质化竞争和价格战,导致企业利润大幅下降,同时企业三角债问题增多,部分企业债务情况恶化。」

航運股反彈 繼續追落後


波羅的海指數升越900 創逾兩月高位
航運股反彈 繼續追落後
航運股經過一輪低潮後,近日終於「苦盡甘來」,3大航運指數急升,其中波羅的海乾散貨運費指數(BDI)(簡稱波羅的海指數)更重上900大關,加上內地兩大航運商首次合作營運集裝箱航線,刺激航運股昨日急升。中國遠洋(1919)和中海集運(2866)各升超過7%。市場預料只要周六公布的9月份中國外貿數據回升,航運板塊後市可繼續追落後。

【本報記者林茂森報道】波羅的海指數昨升3%,報903美元,突破900美元的心理關口,再創逾兩個月高位。波羅的海指數由上月低位的661美元開始反彈,至今升近36%。若升勢和今年第一季一樣,將可上試1100美元以上高位。波羅的海指數是航運業的經濟指標,又稱為「經濟寒暑表」,它包含了航運業的乾散貨交易量的轉變。這次突破900美元反映未來經濟,利好航運業。另外,海峽航運指數也彈3.3%至1833,月內亦累升13%。此外,波海巴拿航指更急升7.5%至843,月內累飆98%。

张仰荣预测大马或重演金融危机 短期内勿投资房产

张仰荣预测大马或重演金融危机 短期内勿投资房产
Created 10/12/2012 - 08:31

(八打灵再也11日讯)正当人们纷纷看好房产领域前景,认为目前是投资房产的最佳时机,赞美主公司特许调查及调解人张仰荣博士提出警告,指大马最近一两年将重演1997年亚洲金融危机,建议人们在3至5年内最好不要投资房产。

他预测,我国将在2012年至2013年重演1997年亚洲金融危机,这次灾情将比1997年严重。

“1997年,欧美经济并不受影响,我们仍然可以出口,但现在欧美经济也放缓,因此这次将比当年更严重。”

他说,目前房地产领域就如“仅剩一格油的火箭”,需求已逐渐放缓。

Marc Faber: Market Setting Up for 'Serious Setback'

Marc Faber: Market Setting Up for 'Serious Setback'

Stocks Hit Today, After Hours Earnings Positive

Stocks Hit Today, After Hours Earnings Positive

逆向在价值投资中的地位

逆向在价值投资中的地位
2012/10/12 07:55:04
刘军宁

炒股日当午,最是交易苦。对着K线图,一哭一上午。哭了一上午,还要哭下午。仓位补不补,心里非常苦。──作者 白交易(引自网上诗文)

价值投资从本质上看,就是逆向投资。反之亦然。──塞思•卡拉曼

在我的词典里,价值投资是逆向投资的代名词。技术派投资是从众投资的代名词。从众的投资者靠的是整天面对图标、用各种手段进行技术分析,并不时四处打探内幕消息。前引的股民白交易便是这种的典型。他关心的不是其投资对象,而市场上其他投资者提供的报价。而对于价值投资抑或逆向投资,其神髓是什么?陈寅恪先生的一句名言也许是最好的答案:自由之思想,独立之精神。

经济降温 罗杰斯:中国走对路

经济降温 罗杰斯:中国走对路
(台北10日讯)《中时电子报》报道,国际投资大师吉姆罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)昨日表示,中国「正在朝正確的道路走」;美元更会在10年后丧失其全球储备货幣地位。

罗杰斯昨日在台湾演讲时强调说,全球重心已转向亚洲,21世纪是亚洲的世纪,最重要的国家就是中国。

美元10年后失地位

近来中国经济「保8」无望,罗杰斯认为,这是全球经济不振的自然现象,加上过去刺激政策导致物价和房地產飆升,现在的「降温」是合理且「朝正確的道路走」,他希望中国要继续走紧缩政策,「就像森林大火,过肥的树木死亡后,后续的树木將长得更高更大。」

李寧又地震

李寧又地震

自私募基金TPG年初入主李寧(02331)後,李寧再有人事變動,繼張志勇七月辭任行政總裁後,首席財務官(CFO)兼執董鍾奕祺昨亦辭任,理由是有其他事業發展追求,下月一日起生效。李寧更迅速向分析員親自「解說」,有與會分析員表示,公司現正處於重組階段,故理解一連串人事轉變,亦有指李寧股價將受負面影響。

三階段變革不動搖

李寧昨早發通告後,便立刻舉行分析員電話會議,與會分析員透露,主席李寧及鍾奕祺出席並親自回應,惟會議內容與通告差不多,並沒交代業務近況,但維持公司三階段變革的方向,包括人事轉變。

李寧股價昨日最多升逾7%至5.03元,收報4.83元,仍升近3.42%,其他體育用品股亦繼續做好,安踏(02020)及中國動向(03818)各升4.79%及3.52%。該名分析員相信,昨日股價已反映李寧高層辭任的消息,又強調目前李寧面對的問題主要在存貨及供應鏈,因此不擔心公司高層連番或潛在的人事變動,對股價帶來的短期影響。

匯金撐內銀限半年


匯金撐內銀限半年


中央匯金日前在發表增持工行(01398)、農行(01288)、中行(03988)、建行(00939)的聲明中,不像過往般列明增持期限,惹來投資者無限憧憬。但四大行昨陸續發表通告,披露匯金增持A股細節,同時引述匯金表示,是次增持為期只有六個月,較之前十二個月「少一半」。

日前斥5400萬增持

日前匯金發表聲明表示,周三起已在二級市場增持。根據四大行通告顯示,匯金增持逾572萬股農行A股,為四大行之冠,其餘依次為工行、中行、建行。此外,通告只披露匯金增持股份數目,但沒有披露作價,然而若按增持當日四大行A股平均價計算,匯金是次增持涉資合共約5,401.7萬元人民幣。

港股漲6周恐浪頂


港股漲6周恐浪頂


「國家隊」及央企開啟增持行動,市場對中資股重拾信心,基金爭相追貨,繼撲入內銀股後,昨日搶入內險、航運等高啤打(Beta)股份,當中國壽(02628)股價漲至七個月高位,刺激恒指漲137點,重越21,000點關,收報21,136點,且連續六周上揚,創今年二月以來最長升浪。而證券界預期,恒指21,400至21,500點會有阻力。

昨日恒指高開52點後,最多漲237點,全日漲137點或0.65%,國企指數繼續跑贏大市,曾漲181點,全日漲114點或1.12%,收報10,345點,港股總成交561億元。對沖盤增加下,港股沽空金額微增2.35%至53.71億元,沽空比率9.61%。

樓價指數3連升 一城破頂

近日二手跳價成交
樓價指數3連升 一城破頂
395呎333萬 歷史新高呎價8430
QE3效應進一步浮現,反映二手樓價走勢的中原城市領先指數(CCL)再破頂,新報111.11點,連升三周累升2.72%,屋苑屢現跳價成交,沙田第一城395呎一周跳價5萬元,荃灣中心1房戶月內三度破頂,政府表明,有需要會再出招。

政府消息人士回應稱,當局正在密切關注樓市走勢,但除了樓價外,亦參考其他一籃子指標,包括成交量等,如有需要,會推出進一步的措施,以確保樓市健康平穩發展。

美法院撤三星禁令 再挫蘋果


美法院撤三星禁令 再挫蘋果
股價跌一成 分析料調整後再上
蘋果近期負面消息接踵而來,致股價由高位持續下滑,最新一宗為加州法院駁回6月對三星(Samsung)頒布的部分禁制令,准許後者的手機Galaxy Nexus重售,觸發部分投資者憂慮公司前景,惟分析普遍仍看好這間全球最大市值企業。

蘋果高處不勝寒,上月21日寫下705.07美元新高後,面對的打擊可謂無日無之,至今已跌一成。先是iPhone 5因外形一成不變,連同連接埠被重新設計,遭「果粉」批評;再來是用戶不滿iOS 6取締及禁止下載Google Maps,迫得行政總裁庫克(Tim Cook)連忙公開致歉。

iOS 6地圖出事 富士康廠房暴亂

此外,負責替蘋果製造零件及組裝的富士康,上月底又傳出山西廠房工人因iPhone 5發售趕工,最終不堪壓力而發生暴亂。

周大福再增持新時代

周大福再增持新時代

【本報訊】近日動作頻頻的新時代能源(166)又獲新世界(017)創辦人鄭裕彤增持!根據聯交所資料顯示,彤叔旗下的周大福於周四在場內增持200萬股新時代至30.4%,為近兩周內第二度增持,涉資近200萬元。

集團傳訊部總經理張一心昨引述集團主席鄭家純表示,多謝媒體對創辦人鄭裕彤的關心,她表示彤叔目前在醫院療養,情況穩定並康復中,澄清其健康並非惡化。

她又強調,彤叔已經退休,對集團的管理及日常運作無影響。新世界系的股份昨日普遍靠穩,其中新世界更上升超過2%。

摩通:美樓市轉勢 按揭業務佳助業績


摩通:美樓市轉勢 按揭業務佳助業績

【本報綜合報道】摩根大通及富國銀行昨為美國銀行股第三季業績期揭開序幕。以資產計為美國最大銀行的摩通(JP Morgan),於期內純利按年增長34%,折合每股賺1.4美元,較市場預期為佳。摩通有此佳績主要受惠按揭及交易業務理想所賜,同時亦象徵該行已逐漸走出年初「倫敦鯨」交易虧損的陰霾。

摩通昨公佈,第三季純利按年升34%,至57.1億美元,每股盈利報1.4美元,遠勝預期1.24美元;摩通去年同期純利為42.6億美元,每股賺1.02美元。該行期內收入為259億美元,較去年同期的237.6億美元增長6%。

走出「倫敦鯨」虧損陰霾
該行第二季公佈業績時表示,因「倫敦鯨」事件而造成首席投資辦公室(CIO)有58億美元損失,並預期會有約17億美元潛在損失,但去季因上述事件而造成的損失僅4.49億美元,遠低於預期。摩通總裁戴蒙(Jamie Dimon)昨舉行業績簡報會時表示,「倫敦鯨」事件令摩通的「盔甲出現了一道裂縫」,但除此以外,摩通仍有很好的內部監控機制。

併購發達飛航空或告吹‧亞航前景蒙塵


併購發達飛航空或告吹‧亞航前景蒙塵
Created 10/12/2012 - 19:04

(吉隆坡12日訊)網上新聞指出,亞航(AIRASIA,5099,主板貿服組)及印尼亞航合作伙伴-Fersindo Nusaperkasa將不併購印尼的發達飛航空(Batavia Air),因為有關方面未能達致協議,特別是收購價格問題。不過,至今尚沒有正式宣佈,亞航管理層也拒絕對它評論。

分析

豐隆研究認為,上述消息對亞航略為負面,因將使亞航需要更長時間,以進行內部成長及滲透印尼市場,後者規模龐大兼競爭激烈。

豐隆指出,若是發達飛航空併購告吹屬實,相信也不排除馬印航空(Malindo)也將取消的可能性。

變招增持內銀起飛


變招增持內銀起飛
中央匯金首度「無期限」增持工行(01398)、農行(01288)、中行(03988)、建行(00939),刺激內銀股全線上揚,恒生指數曾重越21,000關,惜滬深股市再「反高潮」,即使人行再透過逆回購操作向市場注資、央企陸續宣布回購,滬綜指跌0.81%、深成指跌1.24%,以致恒指「差1點」未能穩守21,000關,收報20,999點,微漲79點。

國企指數則再跑贏大市,全日漲190點,收報10,231點,再創五個月收市新高。

匯金第三季增持626.63萬股工行A股及1,881.24萬股中行A股,正當市場關注增持行動會否持續之際,匯金發聲明稱,周三起已在二級市場再增持四大行,與過去做法不同,今次匯金只稱會「繼續進行相關市場操作」,無設立一個增持期限。央企亦積極增持,繼寶鋼、中煤能源、長江電力後,南方航空(01055)宣布,控股股東南航集團昨通過上交所交易系統增持公司共500萬股A股,令其持有公司A股股權增至42.27%,集團並擬在未來十二個月內續增持公司A股。

百億資金捧內銀 中資股看俏



百億資金捧內銀 中資股看俏
匯金揚言再掃貨 滙豐外圍造好
中資股連日強勢,恒指昨升0.4%,國指飈1.9%,再度跑贏大市,中央匯金稱繼續在二級市場買四大內銀A股,H股即吸引百億資金「跟風」湧入,南航A股亦獲母公司增持,走勢強勁的基建鐵路股錄得逾1年高,好消息相繼傳出,以及基金追貨,利好國指繼續反撲。

美國首領失業救濟人數跌幅超預期,外圍造好,截至本港今晨1時30分,滙豐(00005)在美國掛牌的預託證券(ADR)折算報74.3港元,較港收市價73.45元高0.85元;中移動(00941)ADR折算報84.4港元,較港收市價84.75元低0.35元;國壽(02628)ADR折算報23港元,較港收市價22.9元高0.1元。

進入超買格局 JCY國際股價寫新低  


進入超買格局 JCY國際股價寫新低  

(吉隆坡12日訊)硬碟生產商JCY國際(JCY,5161,主要板科技)閉市報68.5仙,股價寫11個月新低,技術分析顯示,股價已呈超買格局,券商勸請投資者,宜趁股價回彈時套利。

 該股今日交投雖熱,惟全日走勢疲軟,早盤平盤以73仙迎市,爾后即在70仙水平線下拉扯,交易1個半小時跌破70仙支撐水平,早盤更進一步探低至68仙,滑落5仙,寫下去年11月以來新低。

 休市時,JCY國際暫掛69.5仙,跌3.5仙,半日易手1438萬9900股。

 馬銀行投資銀行技術分析指出,自該股今年8月2日站上1.60令吉,即形成超買格局,同時釋出看跌訊號,相信短期內將持續走跌,極可能再跌至下一道支撐水平58仙。

出色业绩捎喜 顶级手套前景唱好

出色业绩捎喜 顶级手套前景唱好

吉隆坡12日讯)顶级手套(TOPGLOV,7113,主板工业股)2012財政年(截至8月31日至)全年净利劲扬78.8%,实属市场意料之外。考虑到提高丁手套比例、手套需求量增加与发展自动化生產线等利好因素,分析员普遍唱好该股前景。

顶级手套週四公佈全年净赚2亿零221万令吉的佳绩,同时建议派发每股9仙终期股息,使全年股息增加至每股16仙。业绩优异带动週五股价扬升3.50%,以5.33令吉闭市。

市场分析员相信该公司净利大涨,主要因素是手套销售强劲、价格极具竞爭力、效率提升、胶乳价格走低,以及美元兑令吉走强所致。

侨丰投行分析员有信心,顶级手套在2013財政年可延续盈利增长势头。同时,顶级手套目前正加快丁手套的產量,冀望平衡產品组合。同时,该公司积极投资发展自动化生產线,以缓衝最低薪金制效应。

黄世凯:大股东董事没脱售亚洲媒体股权


黄世凯:大股东董事没脱售亚洲媒体股权
(吉隆坡12日讯)亚洲媒体集团(AMEDIA,0159,创业板)首席执行员兼执行董事拿督黄世凯表示,在公司股票近期被市场拋售而走低期间,他本身没有在市场上脱售股权。

他也指出,自公司上市以来,作为最大股东,他未曾减少手头上持有的亚洲媒体集团股票。

针对亚洲媒体集团过去一週大幅走低,回吐大部分年初至今的涨幅,黄世凯透过手机简讯向《东方財经》回应称,「截至昨日(11日),公司没有接获任何有关大批股权易手或董事局成员买卖股票的通知。」

根据大马交易所的股权报表显示,亚洲媒体集团从2011年12月30日至今,都不曾出现大股东或董事局成员的股权变动。

取消免税出口固打 明年降低原棕油出口税

取消免税出口固打 明年降低原棕油出口税

(吉隆坡12日讯)我国將于明年1月1日起,下调原棕油出口税至4.5%至8.5%之间,隨原棕油价格浮动,並取消原棕油免税出口固打。

种植及原產业部长丹斯里柏纳东博柏纳东博指出,这次的调整措施將有助提高大马种植业者与其他国家在价格上的竞爭力。同时,此举也可让大马原棕油提炼业务的竞爭力增加,避免遭受其它国家的棕油提炼业者打击。

他透露,新原棕油出口税率將隨著原棕油市价起落,浮动于4.5%至8.5%之间。

「例如,若价格介于每公吨2250令吉至2400令吉,出口税將会是4.5%。价格每起150令吉,出口税將增加0.5%,以此类推至最高的8.5%。」他补充,此税率只適用于原棕油,棕油衍生產品出口將不被徵收任何税务。

财政预算案后购屋策略(3):朝向居者有其屋


财政预算案后购屋策略(3):朝向居者有其屋
Created 10/12/2012 - 14:34

政府在2013年财政预算案,继续把重点放在人民可负担的房子上,拨款19亿令吉,建造12万3000间可负担房屋。

因为新预算案内有不少有利的措施,中低收入或第一次购屋者,可要特别留意。

即使想延迟下单以享有新措施的惠优,现在也差不多是部署的时候了。

泛亚房地产投资者阿逸雅说,政府过去颁发的可负担房屋计划,很多都集中在莎阿南和双溪毛糯一带。

财政预算案后购屋策略(2):为何打房不成功?

财政预算案后购屋策略(2):为何打房不成功?
Created 10/12/2012 - 14:25

政府自去年开始,陆续宣布不同层面的打房措施,例如国家银行收紧借贷顶限到审批条件,政府上调产业盈利税和印花税等。

但这些早前颁布的打房措施,在许多人眼中看来,并不见得有效。

为何中国打房打得出神入化,我国的情况却不大奏效?即使买气有稍为放缓,但屋价依然高企?

收紧房贷漏洞多

财政预算案后购屋策略


财政预算案后购屋策略
Created 10/12/2012 - 14:52

市场引颈长盼的2013年财政预算案终于出炉,并宣布了多项与产业市场相关的措施,涵盖产业盈利税、可负担房屋、房贷条件等。

这些措施对房地产市场有什么影响?国人的拥房能力会否因此提升?

这是大家都想知道的,尤其是第一次购房者更加关注。

由SwHengTee国际投资俱乐部主办的“从2013年财政预算案看房地产投资策略”讲座,详尽为大家报道,让大家细看产业市场的未来方向,部署产业投资策略。

政府近年动作频频,以抑制炒作和协助低收入者置业为主要考量,陆续采取一系列产业相关措施,以打造更健全的产业市场。

The big bear


The big bear
Personal Finance

Written by Kelvin Tan  
Friday, 05 October 2012 00:00

Albert Edwards, global strategist at French investment bank Société Générale, is telling the world that the US economy is headed for recession, and that a hard landing looms for China. The result could be a more than 80% collapse in copper prices, and a 60% to 70% crash in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index within the next 18 months. And, forget about the latest round of quantitative easing by the US Federal Reserve saving the day. “All it wants is to push up asset prices with more money printing to keep confidence high,” he says of the US Fed’s efforts. “If the market sees that QE3 doesn’t work, and the US still goes into recession, people will panic.”

Warren Buffett looks at cash differently than most investors: report


Warren Buffett looks at cash differently than most investors: report
September 25, 2012,

Berkshire Hathaway’s  BRKA +0.40%   BRKB +0.57%  Warren Buffett does not view cash the way most people do.

For him, it is a universal call option that never expires, giving him the flexibility to swoop in and buy more lucrative assets at a bargain when the opportunity arises, reported the Globe and Mail, citing his biographer Alice Schroeder.

Buffett’s Berkshire reportedly has nearly $41 billion in cash on hand.

“He thinks of cash differently than conventional investors,” said Schroeder according to the report. “This is one of the most important things I learned from him: the optionality of cash. He thinks of cash as a call option with no expiration date, an option on every asset class, with no strike price.”

Apple And Google Much Better Bets Than Black Or Yellow Gold

Apple And Google Much Better Bets Than Black Or Yellow Gold

Correlation between oil and stock prices is high, but I’m not sure who is leading whom by the nose.  Energy is a macro factor that in recent years turned financially sensitized, tied to the course of the dollar and gold.  But, oil is no longer black gold.

Macro players as well as Saudi sheiks put on long gold-short-the-dollar hedges because oil is denominated in dollars.  This worked for years but not lately.  The dollar waxes strong while gold is below its $1,800 high.  Even with the cost of carry minimal for gold bugs, this is a losing play.

Market pundits seize on this oil-stock correlation, some 82 percent between crude oil prices and equity markets since the bottom in 2008.  So what?  Oil prices ratcheted up because worldwide GDP recovered.  Oil didn’t power the stock market, just a coincident indicator at best.  With worldwide GDP numbers coming in, oil futures rapidly turned wobbly, but not stocks.

胡立阳:QE3的“伟哥效应”能维持多久


 我在上个月发表的专栏文章中曾说过,美联储过去连续推出QE1与QE2,原本是希望能刺激生产事业,来降低失业率,但慷慨洒钱的结果却是使得大量的热钱歪打正着的蓬勃了股市,而股市又更快速有效的稳住了美国的经济。

    我要说,这听起来简直就像是“蓝色小丸子”─ “伟哥”故事的翻版!为什么我这么说呢?大家记得吗,当初会研发出伟哥,原是为了治疗心血管疾病的一种用药,但却无心插柳的意外发现它对男性的另一项生理功能有显着的刺激效用,原本只是想救心却反成了全球无数男性的救星。

    没错!量化宽松政策在某些情况下确实是一帖良药,因为它充分发挥了“伟哥效应”!但是任何良药都必须适量且在恰当时间服用,才能发挥最佳功效。我们来回顾一下,QE1的“服药点”是在2008年11月,也就是金融海啸发生之后的不久,当时美股正在低档痛苦挣扎,但这一颗“蓝色小丸子”服下之后不久,别说是华尔街,就连远在亚洲的股市也都纷纷起了反应,一直到2010年3月31日的这段期间,道指从8046点一路涨到10927点,总计暴涨了36%。但在QE2的服药时间则有些太过匆忙了,因为2010年的11月,华尔街雄风依在,根本不需要再次服药。果然,到2011年6月底整个Q2的期间,道指是从11215点涨到12414点,总计也只上涨10%左右。

曾淵滄教路 09.10.12: 中共人事安排拍板 A股有望見底


中共人事安排拍板 A股有望見底
中秋、國慶假期後,港股表現不錯,特別是H股,一反過去的淡勢,帶領恒指向上。本已落後大市的板塊更是輪流炒上,升幅不錯,這包括體育用品股、玻璃股、紙品股、證券行股、航運股。短期內,相信H股仍會繼續追落後,內地A股也很可能已見底,上海綜合指數於2,000點的大關守得很穩。

利好A股、H股的最重要消息是中共十八大開會日期定了,根據過去的經驗,中共最高領導層的人事安排一日未拍板,中共黨大會的召開日期就無法落實,現在中共十八大黨大會已決定於十一月八日召開,說明政治局常委人選已經拍了板,不必再擔心會有高層的鬥爭。薄熙來案件的處理方式已有了共識,明朗化了,投資者最擔心的是局勢不明朗,局勢明朗化有助A股的投資信心,看好A貨當然可以直接買A股的ETF,也可以買國壽(2628),國壽股價遠遠落後大市,有追落後的條件。

大英Blog物館 09.10.12: 打動感覺 改變很容易


打動感覺 改變很容易
「幾乎所有成功轉變的變化順序,都是看見→ 感受→ 改變。」《改變很容易》(作者:Chip Heath)

《改變很容易》一書,除了上期介紹過「縮小改變範圍」的技巧外,更有效成功改變的辦法,是「打動感覺」。書中所述一件真人真事,印證此法之戰力。

「手套寶塔」打動員工

話說史泰格納(J. Stegner,下稱史Sir),幫一間大型工廠打工,眼見公司採購時,水魚到暈,年浪費十億美元之譜,立心變革。史Sir並非CEO,無權無勢,要說服牛咁大間公司大改,簡直是天方夜譚。誰知史Sir找了個暑期工幫手,略施小計,竟然說服到全間公司,心悅誠服,自承問題,之後更死心蹋地,痛改積弊。唔通史Sir同暑期工,識得落降頭?非也!只是成功打動了眾同事的感覺。

Money Mind -07-/10/12 : Asian Currencies & QE3


Money Mind -07-/10/12 : AGRI-COMMODITIES OUTLOOK


财经追击 Episode 26 - Singapore Property



數“逆風"阻路‧頂級手套挑戰大


數“逆風"阻路‧頂級手套挑戰大
Created 10/12/2012 - 19:11

(吉隆坡12日訊)頂級手套(TOPGLOV,7113,主板工業產品組)第四季與全年締造超越預期之佳績,尤其受低乳膠價、高美元匯率之助第四季淨利暴增逾一倍,惟分析員認為新財政年欲重演榮景或遇多種“逆風"。

天然膠手套或掀價格戰

這些逆風包括實施最低薪金制、燃料與乳膠價上漲導致成本增,全球經濟放緩、利得股份(LATEXX,7064,主板工業產品組)接獲奧地利橡膠製品企業森佩理特(Semperit)併購崛起為全球第二大手套製造商,可能掀起手套業更劇烈競爭壓縮賺益等。

SPH posts 5.9% lower full-year net of $365.5m


SPH posts 5.9% lower full-year net of $365.5m

Singapore Press Holdings reported a net profit of $365.5 million for the year ended Aug 31, 5.9% lower compared to the previous year.

Group recurring earnings were $410.2 million for the year, or 0.3% higher as growth in the property and exhibitions businesses offset the lower profits from the newspaper and magazine segment.

Group operating revenue of $1.27 billion was 1.8% higher compared to the previous year. Revenue for the group's newspaper and magazine business was $1 billion.

Finding Value in Palm Oil


Rentals-for-private-homes-expected-to-ease-experts


Analysts-hail-Tiger-AirwaysScoot-collaboration


How low-cost is low-cost?


Bear Deal Not Fair: Dimon


Jamie Dimon Speaks About 'London Whale'


Jamie Dimon: Not Worried About JPMorgan, Worried About Country


JPMorgan's Dimon Bullish on the U.S.


《财经早班车》 标普:印度评级被降可能性颇大

《财经早班车》 标普:印度评级被降可能性颇大 http://www.sina.com.cn 2012年10月11日 宁夏卫视《财经早班车》

《财经早班车》 美联储报告:美国经济增长缓慢

《财经早班车》 美联储报告:美国经济增长缓慢 http://www.sina.com.cn 2012年10月11日 宁夏卫视《财经早班车》

《环球第一财经》野田称日元走强危害日本经济 日本准备采取果断行动

《环球第一财经》野田称日元走强危害日本经济 日本准备采取果断行动 http://www.sina.com.cn 2012年10月11日 宁夏卫视《财经夜行线》

China in Process of Bottoming Out: Pro

China in Process of Bottoming Out: Pro

印度股市閃電崩盤,8秒鐘跌掉15.5%,相當於台北­股市的1100點,其中到底發生了什麼事?

2012-1008-57金錢爆(張忠謀的暗示)4-3

美失­業率大幅下降,但美股利多出盡卻不漲

2012-1008-57金錢爆(張忠謀的暗示)4-2

New leadership unlikely to breathe life into China markets



Can China Provide Earnings Support?


Don't Fear China's Slowdown: Strategist


2013 Airline Recovery?



《财经中间站》保险巨头罕见集体加仓 规模逾百亿

《财经中间站》保险巨头罕见集体加仓 规模逾百亿 http://www.sina.com.cn 2012年10月10日 第一财经《财经中间站》

《财经早班车》 首只双币股启航 A股将迎20亿增量资金

《财经早班车》 首只双币股启航 A股将迎20亿增量资金 http://www.sina.com.cn 2012年10月10日 宁夏卫视《财经早班车》

《财经早班车》 汇金增持银行股 具有稳定作用

《财经早班车》 汇金增持银行股 具有稳定作用 http://www.sina.com.cn 2012年10月10日 宁夏卫视《财经早班车》

Global Growth Outlook Gloomy, but US a Bright Spot: Pro


Finding Value in Emerging Asia


Asia Still Has Great Growth Potential: IHG CEO


Friday, October 12, 2012

聯想PC全球第一


聯想PC全球第一
聯想(00992)個人電腦(PC)終登上全球第一,Gartner統計顯示,聯想於剛過去第三季終成功超越惠普(HP),登上「全球最大PC生產商」的寶座。聯想主席楊元慶強調,登上全球第一,只是發展中一個里程碑,公司正加強拓展包括智能手機及平板電腦等的「PC+」發展策略。



不過,另一家分析機構IDC由於統計數字同時包括專業工作站電腦(Workstations),故聯想於第三季電腦產品的出貨量仍稍稍落後於惠普,但市佔率的差距已收窄至僅有0.2個百分點。

格羅斯續掟美債持倉降至20%

格羅斯續掟美債持倉降至20%
「債券大王」格羅斯旗下總回報基金,連續三個月削美債持倉,九月份持倉較上一個月減少一個百分點至20%,為去年十月來低位,按證持倉則維持於49%。

與此同時,格羅斯上月增持美國以外發達國家債券,持倉由八月份7%增至11%,同時維持新興市場債券及投資級別債券持倉分別於8%及12%,高息債券持倉維持2%。至於現金持有量則維持負6%。格羅斯所屬的太平洋投資管理(Pimco)並沒有直接交代改變持倉原因。

發達國債息勢橫行
Pimco經濟展望報告指,由於環球經濟增長持續疲弱,預期發達國家央行如美國聯儲局、歐洲央行及日本央行等,將繼續推行特殊貨幣措施,令這些國家債券孳息率維持偏低水平,利率波幅有限,建議孳息曲線策略投資者集中於中年期投資,同時避免投資長年期債券。投資者同時可考慮投資於含有通脹指標成分的債券,以對沖長期通脹風險。

A股二次维稳反弹恐难走远



A股二次维稳反弹恐难走远
2012/10/12 16:42:29
傅峙峰

中国股市在今年9月曾试图发起一次维稳反弹,但终告失败并且沪指跌破2000点创年内新低。然而,就在国庆长假前后几个交易日,在上证综指蜻蜓点水般地跌破2000点之际,又一轮维稳反弹被发动起来了。这一次维稳反弹能走多远呢?

触发这次反弹的主要有两个层面的因素:其一是上证综指跌破2000点之后的超跌反弹需求,其二是中共十八大会议召开日期的确定和薄熙来案处理结果的大致落定。第二个因素被视作是政治层面不确定性明确减少的积极信号。

在中共十八大党内换届会议召开前后,社会各层面维护稳定的行动都会发动起来,期间负面因素会较少,这给中国股市创造了一个较好的超跌反弹环境。更深层次的意义在于,政治局面的落定可能导致中国政府加快启动政府投资的步伐,以及加快经济政策的制定与执行。

PC萎縮面臨轉型挑戰


PC萎縮面臨轉型挑戰
聯想(00992)雖榮登個人電腦PC行業一哥,但使人關注到聯想在PC行業轉型面對的挑戰,而其威脅更明顯是來自蘋果公司(Apple Inc),以及與聯想合作關係一向密切的軟體巨人微軟(Microsoft)!

蘋果公司在全球PC市佔率的排名雖然在五大之外,惟其在美國本土的市佔率(第三)仍然高於聯想(第四),而且愈來愈多消費者正改以iPad或iPhone代替傳統PC,作為其主要應用設備。

微軟邁向「Apple化」
因應蘋果公司iOS平台的成功,微軟正以Windows8平台推出結合平板電腦功能的新一代PC產品,聯想周三才發布的IdeaPad Yoga亦為其中一員,但市場已認為其達799美元(約6232.2港元)的定價根本不吸引。

中央維穩掃內銀 工行4%


中央維穩掃內銀 工行4%
匯金表明續買 不設限期
2012年10月12日
【明報專訊】「十八大」臨近,維穩成中央當前重任,力挺資本市場象明顯。中央匯金昨天早上宣布,從周三起(10日)繼續增持國有四大行,且未指明限期,刺激內銀股大漲,工行(1398)急升4.26%、建行(0939)、中行(3988)、農行(1288)亦有近3%升幅(見表);此外,近期不少國企獲母公司增持,保險資金亦獲批入市,分析認為,多種象徵式動作顯示,換屆前,「國家隊」開始出手「穩」市。

周二是中央匯金於2011年10月承諾未來12個月增持四大行屆滿之日,從過去一年匯金增持逐季削弱的節奏看,市場原本以為,已「滿手蟹貨」的匯金有可能偃旗息鼓。然而,匯金昨晨在官方網站宣布,「自2012年10月10日起已在二級市場自主購入工、農、中、建四行股票,並繼續進行相關市場操作。」

联想是否该收购惠普?


联想是否该收购惠普?
联想(Lenovo)是一家胸怀大志、敢做敢干的中国公司。

2005年时,联想在美国国会的强烈反对声中收购了IBM的个人电脑业务。这项收购使得联想成功地挑战了惠普(HP)并成为世界最大的个人电脑制造商。

现在,联想想要成为中国的苹果公司(Apple)。根据《中国日报》(Chinadaily)上周报道,联想已准备好在中国以及世界其他市场上挑战苹果公司的智能手机和平板电脑业务。

作为一家中国公司,联想拥有三大优势:强大的品牌、研发基地和分布广泛的经销网络。但这不足以打败苹果公司的创新和营销机制。事实上,联想中国的研发基地对其自身而言颇为不利。正如我过去所论述的那样,中国经济并不利于熊彼特式企业家精神(Schumpeterian,认为创新是企业家的本质,企业家是推动经济发展的主体,而创新的主动力来自于企业家精神——译注),正是这种企业家精神驱使高科技产业不断进行创造性的自我颠覆。

Yeoh: Global crisis won’t impact luxury watch sales in Starhill

Yeoh: Global crisis won’t impact luxury watch sales in Starhill
Business & Markets 2012
Written by Ho Ching-Ling of theedgemalaysia.com  
Wednesday, 10 October 2012 16:54

KUALA LUMPUR (Oct 10): YTL Corp Bhd managing director Tan Sri Francis Yeoh believes that the current global economic crisis will not negatively impact the luxury watch market.

“This market is quite insulated from recessions. People who collect luxury watches are of a whole new category,” he said during the pre-launch of Asia’s grandest luxury watch and jewellery showcase, "A Journey Through Time VI", to be held at Starhill Gallery under the Starhill REIT.

“There will always be people buying so I don’t think the high-end industry will be affected,” Yeoh added.

Hektar trailing its larger peers


Hektar trailing its larger peers
In The Edge Financial Daily Today 2012
Written by Insider Asia  
Friday, 12 October 2012 14:35

It was one of the first real estate investment trusts (REITs) to be listed on Bursa Malaysia, in December 2006, but Hektar REIT has lost some of its lustre with the subsequent listing of larger, higher profile retail-focused trusts such as Sunway REIT, Pavilion REIT, CapitaMalls Malaysia Trust (CMMT) and most recently IGB REIT.

Indeed, it is currently among the cheapest REITs in terms of price-to-book value and expected yields.

Rights issue to fund expansion
The trust recently completed a one-for-four rights issue of 80 million new units, priced at RM1.23, to partially fund two new acquisitions in Kedah.

Wilmar +3.9%; Malaysia CPO-export tax eyed

Wilmar +3.9%; Malaysia CPO-export tax eyed

Wilmar is up 3.9% at $3.18 as players await further details from the Malaysian government on a CPO export-tax cut. "It's one of the better companies in terms of having feet in both Indonesia and Malaysia and (being) able to trade around any opportunities from that" on the potential tax change, an analyst says.

He adds, the slightly improved soybean supply-side numbers from the U.S. were also positive for the stock as soybean availability is key for Wilmar. He notes the stock is starting from an overly depressed position and a number of players are "relooking" it after its selloff.

ThaiBev becoming regional consumer play: UOB-KayHian


ThaiBev becoming regional consumer play: UOB-KayHian

Thai Beverage is an emerging regional consumer company, not just a spirits player, after several strategic investments, including Wrangyer, Oishi and F&N, UOB KayHian says after a conference call with management.

"All these moves will position ThaiBev with a strong Southeast Asian presence." The September 2011 acquisition of Serm Suk was strategic given its strong non-alcohol product portfolio and logistics infrastructure, with ThaiBev seeing stronger growth prospects for non-alcoholic beverages and with Serm Suk providing an efficient returnable bottle system, it says.

ThaiBev's valuation on consensus forecasts is undemanding at 14.8x FY13 P/E vs projected 12.7% on-year EPS growth vs regional F&B consumer companies' 21.7x and 11.9% on-year respectively, it says. UOB-KH doesn't rate the stock.

CapitaMall Trust +2.4%; Possible yield play


CapitaMall Trust +2.4%; Possible yield play

CapitaMall Trust is up 2.4% at $2.11, at its highest since October 2010, after a series of large trades, suggesting institutional interest. Two analysts say they aren't aware of a specific reason for the move. "In general, it's been a laggard," one of the analysts says.

The other notes, "effectively, all the bigger REITs have been moving up" recently, noting CMT is among the largest and most-liquid. He adds, it may also be on a yield play.

On Wednesday, Barclays initiated the stock at Equal-Weight with a $2.22 target, saying it believed its market-leadership position, quality portfolio and expectations for annual FY12-14 DPU growth of 4%-10% are mostly priced in, with its FY12-14 DPU yield of 4.5%-5.1% relatively low; "We would hold this stock as a long-term, low-volatility investment."

Hot Stock Top Glove rises on higher earnings, dividends


Hot Stock Top Glove rises on higher earnings, dividends
Business & Markets 2012

Written by Chong Jin Hun of theedgemalaysia.com  
Friday, 12 October 2012 09:54

KUALA LUMPUR (Oct 12): TOP GLOVE CORPORATION BHD [] shares rose as much as 2.5% among top gainers in early trade on Friday after the world's rubber glove manufacturer reported better earnings and proposed a higher dividend for shareholders.

While analysts have raised their target prices for Top Glove share, they are also mindful that its earnings have been priced into the stock.

Oldtown White Coffee assures customers of halal food and drinks

Oldtown White Coffee assures customers of halal food and drinks
Business & Markets 2012

Written by Bernama  
Friday, 12 October 2012 11:42

KUALA LUMPUR (Oct 12): Oldtown White Coffee has given an assurance that the food and drinks served at all its outlets are halal.

Oldtown White Coffee has of late been faced with allegations from certain quarters that its food and drinks are not halal with even Muslim staff being instigated to resign.

"Oldtown White Coffee does not serve any non-halal products or alcohol.

Legoland traffic to benefit KSL, Genting, MMC


Legoland traffic to benefit KSL, Genting, MMC
Business & Markets 2012

Written by Cindy Yeap of theedgemalaysia.com  
Friday, 12 October 2012 12:08

KUALA LUMPUR (Oct 12): Investors looking for proxies to the expected rise in traffic flow between Iskandar Malaysia’s newly opened Legoland theme park and Universal Studios Singapore (USS) should consider KSL HOLDINGS BHD [], GENTING BHD [] and MMC Corp Bhd, Affin Investment Research said.

“We believe major attractions like Legoland and USS will increase the visibility of Malaysia and Singapore as key tourist destinations. Given the proximity of Johor, Legoland is expected to benefit from Singapore tourists flow,” the research house wrote in a note Friday morning, highlighting that Singaporeans make up 54% of the 24.7 million tourists to Malaysia last year.

產量10月回降‧出口稅下調‧棕油價年杪反彈可期


產量10月回降‧出口稅下調‧棕油價年杪反彈可期
Created 10/12/2012 - 07:45
(吉隆坡11日訊)大馬9月份棕油產能過剩和庫存創新高打擊棕油價格,惟分析員認為原棕油產量將自10月見頂回落,加上馬印政府將減出口稅,棕油價年杪回彈可期,“中和"評級不變。

剛公佈的大馬9月12日棕油庫存按月增長17.4%至248萬噸,同期棕油產能按月增長20%至逾200萬公噸,產能過剩導致原棕油價面臨下壓至每公噸2千175令吉之兩年新低。

年杪要超過3千令吉不易

豐隆研究說,棕油產量攀上高峰後,料於10月起遞減,大豆油與棕油價差大,料帶動棕油需求,有望讓棕油價回彈,不過不會回復以往高位。

购医药中心长期看好 双威产托盈利预测上修


购医药中心长期看好 双威产托盈利预测上修
Created 10/12/2012 - 11:57
(吉隆坡11日讯)虽然双威产托(Sunreit,5176,主板产业信托股)收购双威医药中心此类资产或未能享有零售资产般双位数租金增长率,但分析员看好长期租约可带来稳定收入及投资组合多元化。

此外,双威产托建议配售新单位集资的宣布,除了有助降低负债率和为未来收购创造空间,也可提升流通率。

双威产托此前宣布,将以3亿1000万令吉收购双威医药中心,同时建议配售20%新单位集资3亿2000万令吉。

Singapore escapes recession, keeps tight monetary policy

Singapore escapes recession, keeps tight monetary policy

Singapore defied forecasts on Friday by keeping monetary policy tight and allowing the local dollar to appreciate at its current pace, bucking the regional trend as it warned of persistent inflationary pressures in a slowing economy.

The trade-dependent economy contracted more than expected in the third quarter, and most economists had predicted an easing of policy as the island barely avoided a recession due to a revision to the second quarter numbers.

But high inflation, fed partly by a tight labour market because of policies to control the influx of foreign workers in the densely populated city-state, remained a key concern for the central bank.

Singapore unexpectedly holds policy stance to combat inflation


Singapore unexpectedly holds policy stance to combat inflation

Singapore’s central bank unexpectedly announced it will leave monetary policy unchanged, seeking to curb consumer price gains even after the economy shrank an annualised 1.5% in the last quarter.

“This policy stance is assessed to be appropriate in containing inflationary pressures and keeping the economy on a path of restructuring towards sustainable growth,” the Monetary Authority of Singapore said today in a statement following its semi-annual exchange-rate review. There will be no change to the slope and width of the local currency’s trading band that the MAS uses as its main policy tool, the bank said. The level at which it is centered will also remain unchanged, the MAS said.

P1 aims for top four position


The Star Online > Business
Friday October 12, 2012
P1 aims for top four position

PETALING JAYA: Packet One Network (Malaysia) Sdn Bhd (P1) is aiming to be among the top four telecommunication companies in the country by 2020.

The subsidiary of Green Packet Bhd, which has made efforts to increase its current reach, currently has a nationwide coverage of more than 55% while in the Klang Valley, it stands at 70%.

“Wherever P1 has coverage, we have about at least 25% of the market share,” said P1 brand and marketing director Shirley Ah Yong, adding that P1 was rapidly expanding both its coverage and market share.

MISC: No gain or losses from stake sale

The Star Online  Business
Friday October 12, 2012
MISC: No gain or losses from stake sale

PETALING JAYA: MISC Bhd’s proposed disposal of its 50% equity interest in Gumusut-Kakap Semi-Floating Production System (L) Ltd (GKL) to E&P Venture Solutions Co Sdn Bhd, a unit of Petronas Carigali Sdn Bhd, will not result in any gain or loss to MISC.

It said that this was because the stakes were sold at the cost of the company’s equity investment in GKL.

The share disposal consideration of US$305.7mil (RM934.4mil) represents 50% of the total cost of MISC’s equity investment in GKL as at Oct 4, which amounts to about US$611.4mil.

JCY International falls to 11-month low


The Star Online  Business
Published: Friday October 12, 2012 MYT 11:41:00 AM
JCY International falls to 11-month low

By Joseph Chin

KUALA LUMPUR: Shares of hard-disk manufacturer JCY International fell to the lowest since late November last year on some technical selling.

At 11.14am, it was down four sen to 69 sen with 11.50 million shares done.

The FBM KLCI rose 0.68 of a point to 1,656.15. Turnover was 273.76 million shares valued at RM240.22mil. There were 245 gainers, 206 losers and 284 counters unchanged.

Maybank KE Research said in its technical analysis that JCY made a daily major Wave 2 high of RM1.60 on Aug 2, 2012 with grossly overbought and bearish signals.

大行報告:友邦收購影響正面

大行報告:友邦收購影響正面


瑞信發表研究報告,指友邦保險(01299)收購ING馬來西亞業務接近尾聲,涉及金額約17億美元,成功的話相信對公司前景有正面影響,主要是收購可即時提升盈利,以及令業務組合轉移至增速較高的市場,屆時從馬來西亞取得的新業務價值比率將上升兩倍,因此該行維持給予友邦「跑贏大市」評級,目標價32元不變。

該行表示,計及預計收購金額、剩餘現金狀況及負債能力,是次收購料可提升友邦的每股盈利約5%。同時,公司在馬來西亞的市場地位,料將由第四位提升至第二位,並可藉ING現有的銀行關係,來進一步鞏固及深化其銀保渠道業務。

上季PC出貨超越惠普 聯想全球No.1

上季PC出貨超越惠普 聯想全球No.1


聯想(00992)問鼎個人電腦(PC)一哥的努力終於初見成效,行業分析機構Gartner統計顯示,聯想於剛過去第三季終成功超越惠普(HP)登上「全球最大PC生產商」的寶座,而聯想主席楊元慶強調,登上全球第一,只是聯想發展的其中一個里程碑,管理層正加強拓展包括智能手機及平板電腦等的「PC+」發展策略。

惟另一家分析機構IDC由於統計數字同時包括專業工作站電腦(Workstations),故聯想於第三季電腦產品的出貨量仍稍稍落後於惠普,但市佔率的差距已收窄至僅有0.2個百份點。

內銀爆升不負所托

內銀爆升不負所托

中央匯金首度「無期限」增持工行(01398)、農行(01288)、中行(03988)、建行(00939),刺激內銀股全線上揚,恒生指數一度重越21,000點關,可惜滬深股市再度「反高潮」,即使人民銀行再度透過逆回購操作向市場注資、央企陸續宣布回購,滬綜指跌0.81%、深成指跌1.24%,以致恒指「差1點」未能穩守21,000點關,收報20,999點,微漲79點,國企指數再度跑贏大市,漲190點,收報10,231點,再創五個月收市新高。

南航母企預告掃A股

匯金第三季增持626.63萬股工行A股及1,881.24萬股中行A股,正當市場關注增持行動會否持續之際,匯金發表聲明表示,周三起已在二級市場再度增持四大行,同時與過去做法明顯不同,今次匯金只表示會「繼續進行相關市場操作」,沒有設立一個增持期限。

Apple's Stock Drops Below $630: A Normal Correction or Something More Serious?

Apple's Stock Drops Below $630: A Normal Correction or Something More Serious?

Apple’s (NASDAQ:AAPL) stock continued its descent on Tuesday. In early morning, Apple was trading around the $625 mark, down 1.85 percent for the day, and 12 percent below its all-time highs of $705, though there were no major corporate developments to count for such decline. One thing worth noticing, however, is that Apple had plenty of company in its descent among high priced stocks: Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) was down 2.27 percent for the day, and Pricelinine.com (NASDAQ:PCLN) was down 1.90 percent; both stocks have also been on the correction mode in the last four trading sessions.

The broader correction in the high priced stocks that have been big winners in the recent rally suggests that Apple’s decline is most likely part of profit taking rather than something most serious; and the correction may soon be over. What should investors do?

攻守皆儀:內銀股氣氛漸改善

攻守皆儀:內銀股氣氛漸改善
中國人民銀行昨日於公開市場繼續維持大規模逆回購操作,釋放2,650億元(人民幣‧下同)流動性,提前鎖定本周資金淨投放局面。由於資金面較日前寬鬆,故內地市況亦明顯走強,連帶內銀股反彈。現時內銀股反彈屬技術性短暫上升還是已經浮現實質上升空間,筆者將分析銀行業前景及其投資策略。

銀行業發展前景受兩大因素所困擾,一是內地經濟增長放慢,除令借款增長減低外,營運環境轉差,令不少企業面對周轉及經營問題,變相令借款質素惡化;二是外圍經濟不濟,多國已進入減息周期,內地面對貿易減少及內需增長放慢下,未來仍有減息空間,故內銀股面對淨息差見頂下跌情況。

匯金增持內銀承諾屆滿 買貨不多

匯金增持內銀承諾屆滿 買貨不多
2012年10月10日
【明報專訊】作為四大國有銀行的大股東,中央匯金信守了一年前的「諾言」,從去年10月10日至昨天,逐步在二級市場增持四大行股份,無懼「坐艇」。昨晚,中行(3988)公佈的股權變動顯示,今年第三季度,匯金增持該行1881萬股;工行(1398)日前也公布,期內匯金亦增持該行626.63萬股。工行股價昨天已急升1.538%,市場預期,匯金對建行(939)、農行(1288)的股權變動將在近日揭曉。

根據中行於上交所的公告,截至9月底,匯金共持有該行1888.046億股,佔該行A+H股的67.64%,較截至6月底的1887.858億股,增加1881萬股;工行周一的公告亦顯示,匯金在第三季度增持了該行的626.63萬股,至9月底共持有1237.577億股。

Genting Malaysia - Daily win/machine at RWNY continues to rise


Genting Malaysia -
Price Target : 4.30
Last Price : 3.75
Daily win/machine at RWNY continues to rise

- Daily win per machine at Genting Malaysia Bhd's (GenM) 'Resorts World New York' (RWNY) has improved QoQ in 3QFY12.

- According to gaming reports provided to the New York Lottery Association, win per machine at RWNY rose 3.2% from an average of US$375/day in 2QFY12 to US$387/day in 3QFY12.

- So far this year, the highest monthly average win per machine was recorded in September. Average win per machine was US$397/day in September, which was 4.7% higher than the average of US$379/day in August.

Malayan Banking - Prudent Plans in Place

Malayan Banking -
Price Target : 9.87
Last Price : 8.97
Prudent Plans in Place

THE BUZZ - Maybank held a conference call hosted by President and Chief Executive Officer Dato' Sri Abdul Wahid Omar yesterday, to explain the rationale behind the banking group's RM3.65bn private placement exercise and underline both its organic and inorganic growth strategies.

OUR TAKE
The factors driving the placement exercise were in line with what we envisaged:
Raising capital buffers ahead of Basel 3. After engaging with Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) and simulations of worst-case scenarios to comply with the punitive Basel 3 capital deductions, its management decided that it would be prudent to shore up capital ratios ahead of any potential staggered implementations. Based on its conservative Basel 3 Group Core Tier 1 Equity (CT1E) simulation, the latest private placement would raise the group's CT1E ratio to 9.27%, assuming conservative hypothetical Basel 3 computations such as the full deduction of CT1E of investments in non-significant entities (which are non-consolidated entities).

Global Logistic Properties : Why sell stake into a feeder fund?


Sells 16.7% stake in Japanese JV

10/10/2012 – Global Logistic Properties (GLP) sold 16.7% stake in Light Year One Holdings Ltd, a 50:50 JV with China Investment Corporation (CIC) in Japan.

The company sold the stake to CBRE GLP Feeder LP for JPY7.6 bln.

As a result, GLP’s stake in Light Year One Holdings Ltd has fallen to 33.3% from 50% earlier.

However, GLP will continue to be the asset manager of JV’s portfolio of 15 properties in Japan.

Noble Group: Strong Turnaround Expected in 3Q12 On Reversal Of Losses And Brazil’s Sugar Harvest (UOBKH)


Noble Group
Share Price S$1.29
Target Price S$1.52
Strong Turnaround Expected in 3Q12 On Reversal Of Losses And Brazil’s Sugar Harvest

We expect a yoy turnaround in 3Q12 results on: a) the absence of cotton default losses, b) the absence of carbon credit losses, c) improved sugar processing volumes in Brazil, d) improved soybean crush margins, and e) firm oil prices. Maintain BUY. Target price: S$1.52 (based on 1.6x P/B).

What’s New
• Turnaround expected on doubling of operating income. We expect Noble Group to report a significant turnaround to a net profit of US$153m in 3Q12 from an US$18m loss in 3Q11. As a recap, Noble was hit in 3Q11 by defaults by US cotton farmers, carbon credits losses as well as low Brazilian sugar processing volumes from unfavourable weather and poor yields. For the quarter, we forecast operating income to more than double to US$526m, comprising contributions of US$151m (+121%) from the Agriculture division, US$330m (+113%) from Energy and US$45m (+133%) from Minerals, Metals and Ores (MMO).

QAF: Man can live by bread alone (CIMB)


QAF
Current S$0.76
Man can live by bread alone

 QAF offers a tasty dividend yield of 6.6%, which should be sustained by strong cash flows from its bakery business even though the margin outlook is soft. An improving Australian pork business increases the chances of divestment.

QAF has also recently expanded its bakery footprint to China. While initial contributions will not be material, we like the fact that management is starting to explore growth in the region. Potential divestment of its pork business could add S$280m-320m to the firm’s value if capital is ploughed into expansion of its lucrative bakery franchise.

Sunway : Unlocking value of investment property (MIDF)

Sunway Berhad
Maintain BUY
Unlocking value of investment property
Price (10 Oct 12) 2.31
Target Price 2.60

Unlocking value of investment property: Sunway Berhad (Sunway) had proposed to dispose the land, building, plant & machinery and fixtures & fittings fixed to or located or used in Sunway Medical Centre (SMC) to Sunway Real Estate Investment Trust (SUNREIT) for RM310m.

Leaseback agreement: Sunway Medical Centre Berhad, subsidiary of Sunway will subsequently lease back the property from Sunway with the following terms:
(i) Triple net lease basis for an initial period of 10 years with an  option to renew for another 10 years at the prevailing marketrate.
(ii) Annual rental of RM19m for the first year with an increment of 3.5% p.a. thereafter.

Sunway REIT: Healthy addition (CIMB)


Sunway REIT
Current RM1.55
Target RM1.63
Healthy addition

 Sunway REIT's acquisition of its sponsor’s medical assets is marginally positive for earnings and DPU. While the annual rental reversion of 3.5% is less than the 5-6% it gets for its retail assets, it is locked-in under the hospital master lease agreement.

We raise EPU and DPU to factor in the latest acquisitions, as well as higher units outstanding from the private placement. Sunway REIT remains an Outperform as this news could catalyse the stock. Our DDM-based target price rises as we roll forward valuations to 2014. Sunway REIT remains our top pick in the REIT sector.

Resale prices of industrial space on the rise (AM)


Resale prices of industrial space on the rise
There are signs of speculation developing in areas of the industrial property sector, analysts say, but they are divided over whether there is overheating and if the government should step in.

A report from consultancy DTZ yesterday showed that resale prices for industrial space continued to rise in the third quarter, while industrial rents held firm.

The report showed that resale industrial prices for first-storey conventional industrial space rose 4 per cent in Q3, to $600 per square foot (psf), compared with the previous quarter. This was at the same rate as the previous quarter. For upper-storey industrial space, prices grew 3.5 per cent to $445 psf from the previous quarter, slowing from 4.9 per cent growth in Q2.

Frasers Commercial Trust: Strong value proposition (OCBC)


Frasers Commercial Trust:
Fair value    S$1.31
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.08
versus: Current price  S$1.16

Strong value proposition
• Likely redemption of CPPUs
• Expecting uplift in income
• Fair value estimate raised

Frasers Commercial Trust (FCOT) announced on 28 Sep that it had completed the sale of KeyPoint for S$360.0m. We are maintaining our view that FCOT willikely use the bulk of the sale proceeds to redeem half of its Series A Convertible Perpetual Preferred Units (CPPUs) and reduce its existing debt liabilities, as the funding costs of the CPPUs and its gearing ratio are relatively high. Going forward, we are staying positive on FCOT’s financial performance.

M-REITs & Property Investment



Downgrading M-REITs to NEUTRAL from OVERWEIGHT as we believe there is limited room for further yield compressions. Even M-REITs 'risk-free-rate' reference point or the 10-year MGS yield has also been trending lower to current 3.5%. As investors seek safe havens in defensive stocks this year, we note that most M-REITs are trading at historically low gross yields, not to mention record low spreads to the 10-year MGS yields. Assuming the 10-year MGS yields trends lower to 3.3% (based on historical trends) in CY13E and M-REITs continues to demand current record low spreads, we have increased TPs of M-REITs under our coverage. However, our new TPs only provide less than 10% total returns, implying limited share price upsides. As a result, our CALLs/TPs are revised accordingly: 1) Downgrade CMMT to MARKET PERFORM even though we raised TP to RM1.80; 2) Maintain MARKET PERFORM on Sunway REIT even with higher TP of RM1.51; 3) Maintain MARKET PERFORM on Axis REIT even with higher TP of RM3.08. We prefer KLCC Property (OP; TP: RM6.87) as an alternative to M-REITs as our TP reflects a REIT payout structure and a target FY13E gross dividend yield of 4.6% (slightly lower than sizeable retail M-REITs).

In the property sector, we maintain preference for Reits (Limtan)

PROPERTY / REITS

 The government has understandably introduced more measures in the aftermath of Federal Reserve’s QE infinity launched weeks ago.

 MAS will cap the tenure of all new home property loans at 35 years, as well as lower the loan-to-value ratios for new loans with a tenure of more than 30
years:
a. 60% for a borrower with no outstanding mortgage, down from 80%;
b. 40% for a borrower with 1 or more outstanding home loans, down from 60%.

 MAS said (i) over 45% of new home loans have tenures exceeding 30 years, and (ii) average tenure of new home loans has risen over the last 3 years, to 29 years from 25 years.

MISC Berhad - Monetising 50% of Gumusut-Kakap


MISC Berhad -
Price Target : 4.66
Last Price : 4.37
Monetising 50% of Gumusut-Kakap

News   MISC has announced that it had entered into a conditional share purchase agreement ('SPA') with E&P Venture Solutions (EPV) in relation to a proposed 50% share disposal in GKL (the investment holding company of the Gumusut-Kakap Semi-FPS that is tentatively expected to be operational in mid-2013).

EPV is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Petronas Carigali (PCSB), the E&P arm of Petronas.

Total proceeds amount to USD1.7b (RM5.3b) which is due to: 1) cash consideration for share disposal amounting to USD305.7m, (RM934.4m); and 2) cash receipt amounting to USD1.4b (~RM4.4b) in lieu of settlement of the amount owing by GKL to MISC pursuant to GKL's acquisition of the Gumusut-Kakap Semi-FPS from MISC. GKL will repay the amount owing to MISC via a short-term loan obtained from PETRONAS.

F & N: No urgency for minority shareholders to do anything (Limtan)

F & N S$8.88-FRNM.SI  A new twist with a S$1.4 bln unsolicited binding cash offer from an identified party for hospitality and serviced residence business of F&N on a cash-free, debt-free, encumbrances-free basis.  Only yesterday, F&N announced $498 mln / 34.8 cents a share revaluation surplus arising from an exercise carried out by independent valuers.  All this, ahead of the Offeree Circular that is due by tomorrow Oct 11th. The document will contain advice of independent directors, who number 7 out of a total of 9 board directors.  And because of this, F&N’s board will not be responding to the latest asset offer. And who is to know Charoen Sirivadhanabhakdi ‘s stance on the offer, which if accepted will simply add to the cash trove after the sale of AP Breweries to Heineken for $5.6 bln.  Charoen S presently owns 33.17% of F&N, and his TCC Assets’ offer closes on Oct 29, which may well be extended should there be further twists. Kirin of Japan owns 14.7%, while Prudential PLC has ceased to be a substantial shareholder.  Our conclusion remains, there is no urgency for minority shareholders to do anything.

Source/Extract/Excerpts/来源/转贴/摘录: Limtan-Research,
Publish date: 10/10/12

JPMorgan Took a Bath on Bear Stearns Sale: Dimon


JPMorgan Took a Bath on Bear Stearns Sale: Dimon
Published: Wednesday, 10 Oct 2012 | 4:10 PM ET Text Size
By: Reuters

JPMorgan Chase Chief Executive Jamie Dimon said his company has lost up to $10 billion as a result of the government asking him to buy teetering Wall Street firm Bear Stearns during the financial crisis.

"I'm going to say we've lost $5 billion to $10 billion on various things related to Bear Stearns now. And yes, I put it in the unfair category," Dimon said, speaking at a Council on Foreign Relations event.

Dimon said the losses come from litigation and writedowns, among other expenses. JPMorgan [JPM  41.77     0.39  (+0.94%)   ] reports third-quarter earnings on Friday.

曾淵滄專欄 12.10.12: 十八大後才會印鈔


曾淵滄專欄: 十八大後才會印鈔 - 曾淵滄

友邦(1299)2010年12月上市,當時恒指約23000點,如今恒指僅21000點,下跌9%。但友邦股價從未跌破上市價,現價比上市價更高了50%,近日還創歷史高峯。友邦上市前及上市後,我不斷地建議大家買入,認為是一隻可以長期投資的股票,特別是每逢友邦的母公司美國AIG想賣友邦股份以還債時,我都建議大家趁AIG批股買入。

我認為這是一家管理得很不錯的保險公司,主要業務全在亞洲,避開了美國的金融海嘯,完全因為AIG虧損得太重,不得不出售友邦套現,這才為我們製造了買入的機會。

最近,友邦落實購買荷蘭ING在馬來西亞的業務,這又是一個機會,荷蘭ING在歐債危機中也面對很大的資金壓力,不得不賣掉很賺錢、前途很好的亞太區子公司,使友邦可趁機擴張馬來西亞業務。

對冲人生: 揸現金好過做對冲 - 錢志健

對冲人生: 揸現金好過做對冲 - 錢志健
「股災月」10月差不多已過了一半。我沒有預知能力,但在「大回調」或暴跌下盤路中能化險為夷的最好辦法,其實是手持現金,而不是為正股作無謂的額外對冲。

不可再靠單邊性投機
假如你認為2012是迷失的一年,行情難有「大轉變」,You Bet!無限量印銀紙救經濟,必然令通脹加劇。上月美國失業率雖「破八」,整體而言,工作依然難尋,行情非理想,最失落的一群,我相信是希望用衍生工具作單邊大買賣的「投機者」,特別是要和「時間值」搏命的普通人,更密集的買賣很多時只會令資金曲線更傷。我以對答形式淺談一些操作經驗。

青心直說: 聯想四王牌致勝 - 胡孟青


青心直說: 聯想四王牌致勝 - 胡孟青

平板電腦與智能手機對個人電腦市場的擠壓日益加重,多個研究機構均預測,今年全球個人電腦市場將明顯走弱。


不過聯想集團(992)卻逆勢上升,第三季以15.7%的市佔率,取代惠普成為全球個人電腦一哥。

打併購牌知人善用
金融海嘯後,聯想創辦人柳傳志親自輔助楊元慶接班,由薄利多銷鞏固市場,再大打併購牌,令各項業務重上軌道。去年夥日本NEC合資,並收購德國Medion,令聯想借助兩者的品牌認知度與銷售網絡,成功推高市場份額。之後與代工廠台灣仁寶成立合資公司,將研發與製造的距離拉近,提升產業鏈效率。今年8月,再宣佈進軍南美洲,併購巴西CCE。

斥資135億元 購ING馬國業務友邦執筍貨

斥資135億元 購ING馬國業務友邦執筍貨

【本報訊】荷蘭國際集團(ING)撤出亞洲業務傳聞已久,友邦保險(1299)昨宣佈分得一杯羹,以17.3億美元(約134.94億港元)收購ING馬來西亞業務,並可即時帶來盈利增長。分析認為,收購作價合理,加上盈利增長,友邦派息有望增加。

記者:董曉沂

剛於上周宣佈以1.09億美元(約8.502億港元)進軍斯里蘭卡的友邦,昨再斥135億元收購馬來西亞業務,友邦表示,收購會以內部現金及發債支付。友邦首席執行官兼總裁杜嘉祺表示,交易仍待監管機構批准,預期明年首季可完成,稍後才決定以何種方式支付,他強調,集團內部資源充足,無論以全現金或全債支付收購都沒有壓力,不會拖低派息金額之餘,更助友邦成為馬來西亞保險一哥。

周大福爆銷售瀉20%


周大福爆銷售瀉20%
【本報訊】黃金周幫不到珠寶股,繼六福(590)指期內香港銷售按年跌逾30%後,龍頭周大福(1929)亦向券商透露,10月1日至7日的整體生意按年瀉約20%。

料開店目標減
瑞銀發表報告指出,香港整體珠寶行業在黃金周期內,生意錄得大概20%的倒退;而周大福管理層透露,公司的跌幅與整體市場相約,或稍稍低於20%。瑞銀認為,踏入第四季比較基數較低,會有助銷售數字改善。

瑞銀雖然調高了今明兩年的金價預測約1%及10%,但仍然調低對周大福今個財年(截明年3月底)的同店銷售預測,由原本預計升幅10%,降至4%。瑞銀亦削減周大福開店目標預測,由之前的220間減少至190間。

聯想8年外闖 終膺全球PC一哥


聯想8年外闖 終膺全球PC一哥
券商多看好 惟市場萎縮成隱憂
作為中資公司「走出去」的先行者,聯想(00992)經過近8年的起跌歷程,終於今年第三季,成為全球第一大的個人電腦(PC)廠商。但在登峰的同時,卻面對個人電腦市場萎縮的隱憂。

根據市場研究機構Gartner的統計,聯想於第三季全球個人電腦共出1,376萬台,以15.7%的市佔率,超越惠普的15.5%,成為全球第一。另一機構IDC的統計,聯想付運量連續第14個季度跑贏市場,惟仍以0.2個百分點的差距,落後惠普排第二。

上季市佔15.7% 超越惠普

董事長楊元慶表示,成為行業領運行業,為聯想發展一個里程碑,但公司使命是成為「PC+」年代的領導者。

Bigger impact on resale market than on older buyers


Bigger impact on resale market than on older buyers
by Colin Tan 04:45 AM Oct 12, 2012

The consensus among property watchers appears to be that older buyers will be worst hit by the new home loan curbs, especially those in their 40s and 50s, but the impact of the latest cooling measures will likely be felt more acutely in the resale market.

Certainly, the mathematics will show older borrowers to be at a disadvantage, everything else being equal. But everything else is not equal. The commonly-held view assumes that most home buyers leverage to the hilt and it ignores the important fact that older home buyers - many of whom may have experienced more than one property cycle - have a lot more cash resources than younger ones.

Last Friday, the Monetary Authority of Singapore set a maximum tenure of 35 years on all home loans. And the loan-to-value ratios for new mortgages have been lowered for tenures exceeding 30 years, or if the loan extends beyond the retirement age of 65.

S'pore's first yuan-denominated IPO to list on Oct 30

S'pore's first yuan-denominated IPO to list on Oct 30
04:46 AM Oct 12, 2012

SINGAPORE - Dynasty REIT, a real estate investment trust backed by Hong Kong billionaire Li Ka Shing, plans to list on Oct 30 and has started taking orders from institutional investors for Singapore's first yuan-denominated initial public offering, according to a term sheet seen yesterday by Dow Jones.

Dynasty REIT, which is sponsored by real-estate fund manager ARA Asset Management, plans to raise up to S$956 million in Singapore's largest IPO this year. It will also be the second flotation denominated in the Chinese currency outside mainland China.

Dynasty REIT will offer between 893.9 million and 901.3 million units in an indicative range of S$0.86 to S$0.92 each. The trust has secured two cornerstone investors, Credit Suisse and Amundi, which together have subscribed to about 137.6 million units. The units will be tradable in yuan and Singapore dollars.

Top Glove gets a grip on profits


Top Glove gets a grip on profits

2012/10/12

TOP Glove Corp Bhd, after seeing six quarters of declining profits, is posting fatter profits again.

The glovemaker yesterday said its profit margin for the year ended August 2012 fattened to 8.9 per cent from 5.6 per cent, the year before.

Top Glove's fourth quarter net profit alone jumped more than twofold to RM63.51 million, thanks to higher sales volume, competitive pricing, increased efficiency coupled with favourable latex prices and foreign exchange trends.

Its fourth quarter revenue grew 12 per cent to RM607.2 million from RM541.8 million a year ago.

9月库存已触顶 棕油价年杪料反弹


9月库存已触顶 棕油价年杪料反弹

(吉隆坡10日讯)在產量增长4倍高于出口的趋势下,大马9月份棕油库存创下歷史新高的248万公吨,较市场所预测的更高。但隨著11月与12月是產量淡季,市场人士相信,库存水平將有望降低,並能扶持原棕油价格的反弹格局。

大马棕油局(MPOB)公布的数据显示,大马棕油库存从今年8月份的211万2797公吨,暴涨17.43%,至9月份的248万零994公吨,改写歷史新高纪录。《路透社》早前调查的预估中值为246万公吨。

同时,棕油產量的涨幅超过20%,至200万4198公吨,同样刷新歷史水平。而棕油出口的成长幅度则相对较低,只达4.5%,至150万5622公吨。

由此可见,大马9月份棕油库存突破新高,主要因为產量成长步伐要比出口成长速度快了四倍。隨著產量提高,原棕油价格可能受压,並让大马政府面对必须改变出口税务政策的压力。

有聲有識:越秀地產反覆尋頂

有聲有識:越秀地產反覆尋頂
過往內地房地產行業有「金九銀十」的說法,表達九、十月為內房業傳統旺季。雖然今年「金九銀十」效應未有去年般明顯,但仍有房地產商錄得理想銷售。

越秀地產(00123)公布,九月份集團錄得合同銷售金額13.76億元(人民幣‧下同),增長10%,合同銷售面積增長47%至12.54萬平方米。在十‧一黃金周期間銷售增長更明顯,錄得訂購金額4.34億元,按年增63%,訂購面積增1.18倍至3.92萬平方米。

更為專注物業發展
事實上,今年越地賣樓成績不俗,首9個月累計合同銷售額110.2億元,按年增1.34倍,合同銷售面積89.2萬平方米,增長1.78倍。集團定下今年銷售額及面積目標分別為100億元及96萬平方米,現時合同銷售額已超額完成,而銷售面積則達成目標之93%。計及訂購金額及面積,首9個月銷售額為119.77億元,銷售面積96.97萬平方米。

股市創新低 中國石油市值縮水王


股市創新低 中國石油市值縮水王
(上海11日訊)隨著上海A股9月創新低,上市公司的市值也跟著縮水,其中以中國石油、工商銀行和建設銀行縮水最嚴重。

 A股于9月一度跌破2000點關卡,創3年多來新低,導致截至第3季末,A股市場有近60%個股市值縮水。

 Wind資訊顯示,截至9月28日,中國石油與去年底相比,市值減少人民幣1757億元(約860億令吉),為A股市值縮水王。

 接著是工商銀行減少人民幣1698.88億元(約832億令吉),建設銀行則縮水人民幣1400.06億元(約685億令吉),居第2和第3名。

DBS selling over 10% stake in Philippines’ BPI-source



DBS Group, Southeast Asia’s largest lender, is selling more than half of its US$1.3 billion ($1.6 billion) stake in Bank of Philippine Islands to Ayala Corp, a source familiar with the deal told Reuters on Thursday.

Banks around the world have been shedding minority stakes in financial institutions because they are considered inefficient for capital under Basel III rules.

DBS Group CEO Piyush Gupta wants to have controlling stakes in banks, and as part of the strategy made a US$7.2 billion bid for Indonesia’s PT Bank Danamon. The approval of that deal is delayed due to regulatory reasons.

Ayala, a conglomerate, is the biggest shareholder in BPI, which is the Philippines’ largest bank by market capitalisation. DBS owns about 20.3% of BPI.

全年净利激增80% 顶级手套派9仙股息

全年净利激增80% 顶级手套派9仙股息

(吉隆坡11日讯)顶级手套(TOPGLOV,7113,主板工业股)2012財政年(结账日8月31日)净利激增80%,至2亿680万令吉,营业额成长率为13%,至23亿令吉。2012財政年的净赚幅从5.6%增长至8.9%。

2012財政年第4季(截至8月31日)净利增长143%,至6530万令吉,净赚幅从4.9%增加至10.7%。营业额增加12%至6亿720万令吉。

同时,顶级手套建议派发每股9仙的单层终期股息,有待在常年大会通过。顶级手套所派出的全年股息从去年每股11仙,增加45%至每股16仙,相等于將全年净利约50%作为股息。

在支付股息和1亿4100万令吉的资本开支后,顶级手套仍保持净现金部位3亿800万令吉。

投資回酬受限‧產託領域評級中和


投資回酬受限‧產託領域評級中和
Created 10/11/2012 - 19:01

(吉隆坡11日訊)儘管避險情緒可能帶動大馬產託價格持續上漲,但投資回酬卻已受限,肯納格研究分析員下調產業信託領域至“中和"評級。

由於投資者尋求投資於抗跌股,導致大馬產託股周息率被嚴重壓縮,大多數產業信託目前在歷史低位的周率息下交易。

作為大馬產託參閱指標的10年期大馬政府債券(MGS)回酬也下滑至3.5%,假設10年國債回酬進一步回跌至3.3%,且產託低回酬繼續受落,產託價格還有上揚空間。

“不過,即使我們調高目標價,產託潛在總回酬空間也不足10%,惟就過往紀錄來看,我們相信產託回酬繼續高於指標10年國債回酬。"

擠下惠普霸佔6年寶座‧聯想成全球PC龍頭

擠下惠普霸佔6年寶座‧聯想成全球PC龍頭
Created 10/11/2012 - 17:44

(中國‧北京11日訊)市場研究公司顧能(Gartner)公佈調查,中國電腦大廠聯想(Lenovo)今年第三季正式擠下惠普(HP)自2006年霸佔的寶座,首度躍身全球最大個人電腦(PC)製造商。

聯想第三季出貨量成長10%

不過,根據另家市場研究公司IDC同時公佈的統計,惠普仍保住全球PC製造商龍頭寶座,但市占僅較聯想高出不及0.5%。

分析員指出,這顯示惠普在新首席執行員惠特曼推動的業務重振計劃之下,仍難抵擋對手挑戰。

Fundman睇市:匯金買貨支持 內銀未彈夠


Fundman睇市:匯金買貨支持 內銀未彈夠


納指前晚失守QE3後低位3,080點,頸線失守,確認短期已陷雙頂回落危機,道指連續兩晚跌過百點,前晚再跌128點,報13,344點,緊隨失守QE3後調整低位13,367點,呈現雙頂形態,可見在華爾街賓架眼中,第三季業績呈現十一季以來首季下滑,對股市的負面影響,大過聯儲局主席伯南克每月動用400億美元掃入MBS推低美國按揭利率的幫助。

自匯金入市消息曝光,內銀股連日表現一枝獨秀,尋日也帶動恒指在低開106點後拗腰回升,一度高見21,013點,收市報20,999點,升79點。三隻藍籌內銀股,工商銀行(01398)、建設銀行(00939)、中國銀行(03988)升幅介乎2.7至4.2%,貢獻恒指114點,足以抵銷過半數藍籌(28隻)錄得之跌幅。

基會主義:領匯無懼基金減持


基會主義:領匯無懼基金減持
領匯(00823)自五月以來,股價屢創新高,上周更高見37.7元創上市以來新高,昨日以37元收市。不少機構投資者都惜貨如金,以Capital Research and Management為例,今年五月曾在市場配售領匯,但眼見股價反覆上升,不惜以較高價在市場重新買入。

領匯升至現水平,息率回報已經沒有之前那麼吸引,所以亦有機構投資者趁高減持,港交所(00388)資料顯示,澳洲聯邦銀行繼五月減持過領匯之後,於十月五日再以單位平均價36.767元,減持多636萬個單位,令持有單位數目減少至1.34億股,持股量由6.16%降至5.89%。在目前低息環境下,領匯始終有其吸引力,加上走勢持續向好,故即使有機構投資者減持,亦毋須太過憂慮。

鋼鐵股經過半個多月的整固後,近日再度發力,資料顯示有機構投資趁鋼鐵股整固期間,趁低作出吸納,其中新加坡政府投資公司於十月八日,以每股平均價4.218元,買入399萬股鞍鋼股份(00347),持股量由6.87%升至7.23%。

Apple Shares in Correction Territory


S&P Hit All-Time High 5 Years Ago: What Happened?

S&P Hit All-Time High 5 Years Ago: What Happened?

Rough Ride Ahead for Earnings - Fund Manager


《环球第一财经》IMF总裁呼吁果断行动克服经济减速

《环球第一财经》IMF总裁呼吁果断行动克服经济减速 http://www.sina.com.cn 2012年10月11日 宁夏卫视《财经夜行线》

Emerging Markets Still Attractive: JPMorgan


《财经早班车》 平安证券:大盘在震荡中有所反弹

《财经早班车》 平安证券:大盘在震荡中有所反弹 http://www.sina.com.cn 2012年10月10日 宁夏卫视《财经早班车》

《财经早班车》 诺安基金:市场存在一定反弹机会

《财经早班车》 诺安基金:市场存在一定反弹机会 http://www.sina.com.cn 2012年10月10日 宁夏卫视《财经早班车》

《财经早班车》 IMF大幅下调印度经济增长预期

《财经早班车》 IMF大幅下调印度经济增长预期 http://www.sina.com.cn 2012年10月10日 宁夏卫视《财经早班车》

《财经早班车》 瑞银看好新兴市场货币

《财经早班车》 瑞银看好新兴市场货币 http://www.sina.com.cn 2012年10月10日 宁夏卫视《财经早班车》

《财经早班车》 外资大行:四季度中国经济料反弹

《财经早班车》 外资大行:四季度中国经济料反弹 http://www.sina.com.cn 2012年10月10日 宁夏卫视《财经早班车》

《财经中间站》市场资金跟风汇金 大家交易求购四大行

《财经中间站》市场资金跟风汇金 大家交易求购四大行 http://www.sina.com.cn 2012年10月09日 第一财经《财经中间站》

《财经中间站》欧元区永久性救助基金正式生效

《财经中间站》欧元区永久性救助基金正式生效 http://www.sina.com.cn 2012年10月09日 第一财经《财经中间站》

《财经早班车》 汇金继续增持银行股 险资策应

《财经早班车》 汇金继续增持银行股 险资策应 http://www.sina.com.cn 2012年10月10日 宁夏卫视《财经早班车》

《财经早班车》 六成国际大行看多明年金价 预测中值高达1900美元每盎司

《财经早班车》 六成国际大行看多明年金价 预测中值高达1900美元每盎司 http://www.sina.com.cn 2012年10月10日 宁夏卫视《财经早班车》

The Good, Bad & Ugly for the Euro Zone


China's Slowdown Is Not a Crisis


IMF: Sovereign Risk in Japan Banks



China Expected to See Stronger Growth: Pro


PIIGS Exposure Still Weighs Heavily on U.S. Banks


Thursday, October 11, 2012

派特別息不明朗‧怡保花園擬10億購倫敦資產


派特別息不明朗‧怡保花園擬10億購倫敦資產
Created 10/11/2012 - 19:03

(吉隆坡11日訊)怡保花園(IGB,1597,主板產業組)在完成旗下資產的產業信託計劃後,投資者甚為期待該公司派發特別息,惟據稱管理層至今並未確定這項建議,投資者恐怕希望落空。

怡保花園產托上市
籌獲7.7億

該公司透過怡保花園產托(IGBREIT,5227,主板產業投資信托組)的上市計劃籌得7億7千萬令吉,由於投資者都在觀察該公司會否宣佈派發特別息,造成其股價近期頻頻橫擺。

不過,大馬研究會見怡保花園管理層後,後者表示特別息的計劃目前仍不明朗。

保險業併購升溫‧友邦52億併購大馬ING‧大馬保險業重新洗牌

保險業併購升溫‧友邦52億併購大馬ING‧大馬保險業重新洗牌
Created 10/11/2012 - 17:45

(吉隆坡11日訊)亞洲第三大保險巨頭友邦集團(AIA)以高達13億歐元(約52億令吉)收購ING的大馬業務,在大馬打造最大的人壽保險集團,分析員認為,隨著資本和競爭實力的推波助瀾,大馬保險業的併購風料繼續升溫,外資和本地業者的合作風氣也將進入高潮。

脫離美國母公司擁抱新生的友邦集團,近期致力拓展亞洲保險版圖,上個月大舉收購斯里蘭卡第二大人壽保險公司英傑華(Aviva)後,今日再以高價併購ING大馬業務,收購涵蓋ING的人壽保險、員工福利業務、ING PublicTakaful Ehsan的60%股權。

隨著該交易結合了大馬人壽保險第三大巨頭ING和第四大巨頭友邦的事業,令結盟後的友邦,將崛起成為大馬的人壽保險龍頭。

雲頂香港3年投資37億 菲律賓設更多賭場

雲頂香港3年投資37億 菲律賓設更多賭場

(馬尼拉11日訊)雲頂集團旗下雲頂香港(GENHK)宣佈,將與菲律賓夥伴合作當地大展拳腳,未來3年內將投資12億美元(約37億令吉)在當地設更多賭場。

 該公司總裁蔡明發10日晚間在馬尼拉宣佈這項消息,繼早前聯營馬尼拉名勝世界后,將再斥8億美元合作興建海濱名勝世界(Resorts World Bayshore)賭場。

 雲頂在菲律賓的夥伴,亦是當地最大賭場業者安德集團(Alliance Global Group);該集團總裁安森去年12月曾指出,該項目將會是佔地31公頃的綜合式賭場度假村。

2退休金增持 安利股價急漲86仙


2退休金增持 安利股價急漲86仙

吉隆坡11日訊)近期頻頻獲雇員公積金局(EPF)及退休基金局(KWAP)增持,安利(AMWAY,6351,主要板貿易)股價突飛猛進,突破12令吉創新高!

 安利昨日盤中已跳高至11.68令吉的盤中新高水平,今早開市時再接再厲,起8仙至11.70令吉,早盤股價步步高升,一路北攀。

 休市時,安利一鼓作氣高漲1.08令吉,掛12.70令吉,以早盤最高水平休市,同時刷新昨日創下的新高水平,不過成交量僅1萬8000股。

 午盤該股股價持續保持在史上高點,漲幅雖縮小,不過走勢依然強勁;安利閉市收新高,最終漲86仙至12.48令吉。

Fall in palm oil prices may spur India to default contracts

Fall in palm oil prices may spur India to default contracts
Business & Markets 2012
Written by Chong Jin Hun of theedgemalaysia.com  
Thursday, 11 October 2012 16:12

KUALA LUMPUR (Oct 11): The decline in crude palm oil (CPO) prices have prompted concerns that buyers from India, a major importer, may renegotiate or walk away from contracts entered earlier, analysts said.

Credit Suisse analyst Tan Ting Min said it is a norm among buyers to default on earlier agreements when CPO prices decline substantially.

"India appears to be the only country among the big buyers, to have continued to import palm oil. However, there are now worries that India will start to default on its earlier contracts, as Indian importers do not want to bear the higher cost.

Hot Stock MAS actively traded on better outlook


Hot Stock MAS actively traded on better outlook
Business & Markets 2012
Written by Chong Jin Hun of theedgemalaysia.com  
Thursday, 11 October 2012 10:13

KUALA LUMPUR (Oct 11): Investors chased shares of MALAYSIAN AIRLINE SYSTEM BHD [] (MAS), sending the stock up as much as 3% among the most-actively traded counters across the exchange in early trade following analysts’ expectations that the national airline will return to profitability in the near term.

At 10.06am Thursday, MAS rose one sen to RM1.09 with some 3.3 million shares done after climbing as much as three sen to RM1.11 earlier.

“I expect MAS to breakeven or be profitable next year,” an analyst told theedgemalaysia.com on Thursday.

Nam Cheong +6.5%; Lands $64.1m contracts


Nam Cheong +6.5%; Lands $64.1m contracts

Nam Cheong is up 6.5% at $0.245 in strong volume of around 5% of shares traded after it said it sold two PSVs worth a total US$52.1 million ($64.1 million) to two new customers in West Africa. “Any contract win is positive,” an analyst says, but he notes it is in line with his and the street’s estimates.

“It gives more confidence in the numbers.” Another analyst adds “in the past, they were quite dependent on a handful of Malaysian customers. They’re expanding their footprint into other regions. It’s a good thing.”

He notes this is a mid-sized contract for the company, and he expects the announcement for two larger vessels near term; if Nam Cheong wins the larger vessels, it will exceed his contract-win expectations and he will change his earnings forecasts. He notes the company has landed about 80% of his contract-win expectations so far.

東尼:看好發展前景‧放眼設立韓國亞航


東尼:看好發展前景‧放眼設立韓國亞航
Created 10/11/2012 - 11:28
(韓國‧首爾10日訊)亞洲航空(AIRASIA,5099,主板貿服組)旗下日本亞航(Airasia Japan)今日推介首兩個海外航線,從東京飛往首爾及釜山,並表示有意在韓國設立韓國亞航,惟現階段未有實質計劃。

亞航首席執行員丹斯里東尼費南達斯在推介禮上指出:“我們對韓國這個市場深感興趣,不過至今仍未與任何方面洽談。"

他強調,開啟一家航空公司並不容易,需要獲得當地政府的批准,因此需要一段時間,但看好韓國市場的發展前景。

“韓國是亞洲強大的文化中心,無論是日本或東南亞遊客都愛到韓國,我們期望在韓國市場有更好的成長。"

英特尔评级遭下修 大马半导体业恐遭殃

英特尔评级遭下修 大马半导体业恐遭殃
Created 10/11/2012 - 11:22
(吉隆坡10日讯)分析员表示,英特尔公司(Intel Corporation)评级遭下修,导致隔夜纳斯达克指数暴跌后有可能会“祸及”大马半导体领域及科技业者。

英特尔的主要收入来源是个人电脑,但销售停滞不前,英特尔最近积极转攻智能手机晶片,但却不获分析员看好。

美国数家证券行分析员认为,此举不会在18个月内为公司带来显著贡献。

分析报告出炉后英特尔股价应声下跌,全日共挫61美分(约1.88令吉)或2.7%,以21.90美元(约67.45令吉)挂收,写下52周新低。

Warren E. Buffett(沃伦•巴菲特)
Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful
别人贪婪时我恐惧, 别人恐惧时我贪婪
投资只需学好两门课: 一,是如何给企业估值,二,是如何看待股市波动
吉姆·罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)
“错过时机”胜于“搞错对象”:不会全军覆没!”
做自己熟悉的事,等到发现大好机会才投钱下去

乔治·索罗斯(George Soros)

“犯错误并没有什么好羞耻的,只有知错不改才是耻辱。”

如果操作过量,即使对市场判断正确,仍会一败涂地。

李驰(中国巴菲特)
高估期间, 卖对, 不卖也对, 买是错的。
低估期间, 买对, 不买也是对, 卖是错的。

Tan Teng Boo


There’s no such thing as defensive stocks.Every stock can be defensive depending on what price you pay for it and what value you get,
冷眼(冯时能)投资概念
“买股票就是买公司的股份,买股份就是与陌生人合股做生意”。
合股做生意,则公司股份的业绩高于一切,而股票的价值决定于盈利。
价值是本,价格是末,故公司比股市重要百倍。
曹仁超-香港股神/港股明灯
1.有智慧,不如趁势
2.止损不止盈
成功者所以成功,是因为不怕失败!失败者所以失败,是失败后不再尝试!
曾淵滄-散户明灯
每逢灾难就是机会,而是在灾难发生时贱价买股票,然后放在一边,耐性地等灾难结束
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