Saturday, October 6, 2012

招行贷款风险评级存疑

招行贷款风险评级存疑
2012-9-22    文章来源于《证券市场周刊》证券市场周刊订阅
招商银行核销后不良率较2011年底小幅上升4BP,相比同业较宽松的贷款评级或减缓了贷款质量风险。
本刊记者 李畅/文

2012年上半年,招商银行(600036.SH,03968.HK)新增的逾期贷款中,仅有31.8%进入关注类和不良贷款。2012年中报显示,招行逾期贷款余额188.34亿元,较年初新增52.13亿元;关注类贷款余额178.9亿元,新增9.29亿元;不良贷款余额99.03亿元,新增7.32亿元,即招行新增的52.13亿元逾期贷款中仅有16.61亿元被认定为关注类和不良贷款,其他均属正常。

尽管上半年上市银行资产质量较2011年均出现不同程度的恶化,尤其是大部分银行新增逾期贷款大幅增加,但对于这批新增逾期贷款如何认定风险,银行之间的指标并不相同。

Singapore restricts loan tenure for residential properties


Singapore restricts loan tenure for residential properties
Singapore will restrict home-loan maturities to 35 years in a bid to curb a price bubble after property prices in the island-state rose to a record last quarter.

The maximum tenure for new residential property loans will be capped at 35 years, The Monetary Authority of Singapore said in an e-mailed statement today. It will also impose tighter loan-to-value limits for loans exceeding 30 years, it said. The rules, which will become effective Oct. 6, will apply to both private properties and Housing Development Board flats.

“The new rules aim to curb continued upward pressure on residential property prices, driven by low interest rates and rapid credit growth,” the island-state’s central bank said in the statement. “The eventual correction could be painful to borrowers and destabilize the economy.”

The government has been trying to rein in residential property prices since 2009. It has barred interest-only loans for some housing projects, stopped allowing developers to absorb interest payments, imposed additional taxes on foreigners and companies buying properties, and moved to curb the increasing trend of so-called shoebox apartments.

扶盤活動左右走勢‧馬股超買或轉向鞏固


扶盤活動左右走勢‧馬股超買或轉向鞏固
Created 10/06/2012 - 16:26

展望
馬股內憂大於外患

大馬股市上週強勢譜寫歷史新高,成份股扶盤氣息非常強烈,若本週無出現重大利空攔路,“隱形扶盤手"繼續托抬,富時綜指再改寫新高可能性頗大,惟考量綜指過去兩週漲勢過大,且已邁入超買格局,本週揚升力道可能減弱,甚至進入鞏固期。

市場普遍認為,馬股目前狀況遠不如綜指顯示般美好,除數隻力頂綜指上衝的大藍籌股表現亮眼外,其餘股項幾乎無法受惠,整體交易情緒維持拘謹,顯示投資者普遍不願與選舉風險正面交鋒。

多空一线:科恩马再探80仙

多空一线:科恩马再探80仙
Created 10/06/2012 - 12:55

科恩马(KNM,7164,主板工业产品股)于2012年10月5日闭市时反弹了。它于闭市时报71.5仙,涨4仙或5.93%。

科恩马于10月5日间闭市时,突破一道中期下降趋势线(B1:B2)上报收。它的60分鈡分时线平滑异同移动均线指标(MACD),于10月5日处于一道短期反弹走势中。

它的60分鈡分时线图于10月5日进入它的短线反弹走势中。

利淡虽冲击整体领域 大众银行抗跌力强


利淡虽冲击整体领域 大众银行抗跌力强
Created 10/06/2012 - 12:45

(吉隆坡5日讯)低贝他、资产素质优越和业务专注本地市场让大众银行(PbBank,1295,主板金融股)具抗跌能力,抵消不利因素对整体银行领域造成的影响。

考量到多个不利因素,安联投资研究分析员下修整体银行领域评级,不过,继续看好大众银行的抗跌力,而维持给予该股“中和”评级。

对国内银行业不利的因素包括外围市况不明确或冲击银行(尤其是有业务于海外市场)盈利表现和推高明年的贷款亏损拨备,以及外资持股权升高导致银行领域易受外资抛售活动影响。

內銀內險股可看好


【明報專訊】市場不明朗因素消除,投資者對後市樂觀,中資概念股再獲看好,疲弱多時的內銀股又成唱好對象,市場憧憬中央換屆後陸續出台刺激經濟政策,券商看好中資金融板塊未來走勢,基建及相關股份亦有支持。

日前,保監會率先給保險機構委託投資開閘,宣布9家中資券商為獲保險資金投資管理人資格,昨天中資券商和內險股已被炒起,中投證券國際資產管理董事總經理陳家輝預期,政策動向主導後市走向,保險資金入市新政,對中資券商和中資保險板塊十分利好,是其心水;大型內銀則迎來第三季度業績公布,相信亦可支持股價。

海通國際(665)環球投資策略董事潘鐵珊預計,港股短期內將在20,700至21,000點之間徘徊,他也建議目前是吸納內銀的好時機,估值吸引,資本回報率高。

直銷業復甦‧海鷗前景可期


直銷業復甦‧海鷗前景可期
Created 10/05/2012 - 19:06
(吉隆坡5日訊)海鷗企業(HAIO,7668,主板貿服組)多層次行銷業務復甦,產品群更為均衡,燕窩行銷業務有望在中國年杪重新開放進口後再展拳腳,最近擴展的中藥養生中心業務發展可期,未來可攫取無窮契機。

僑豐研究說,海鷗企業近期多層次直銷業務復甦,主要是行銷策略改善,且有更均衡的產品群。除獲韓國竹鹽總代理,燕窩出口業務有望復甦,北京同仁堂中藥行與保健中心業務在擴展後蓄勢待發。

近期該公司與國內公司簽約聯營,設立燕窩控股有限公司,以萃取、加工與分銷燕窩與燕窩產品。早前則與韓國開岩公司簽約,成為生命竹鹽全球總代理。

2013年预算案 圆桌会议


2013年预算案 圆桌会议
Created 10/05/2012 - 15:22
政府刚刚宣布2013年财政预算案,如市场所料,这份预算案首重照顾中产,同时有不少涉及房地产的新措施。

当中,产业盈利税上调5%、可负担房屋计划和融资等条件放宽、近亲产业转名印花税降低等等。

这些新或延长或扩大的措施,对市场、发展商和购屋者有什么影响?短期和长线,是利是弊?

我们邀请到来自建材商、发展商、估价师和地产代理等组织头头,为大家逐一剖析。

双威3新计划 认购80%

双威3新计划 认购80%
Created 10/05/2012 - 15:09
本地产业界翘楚之一双威(Sunway),多年来努力不竭推介新产业,频频取得傲人成就。

该公司在上个季度推出的三项商业产业计划再传佳绩,取得超过80%的认购率。

这三项产业计划分别为双威综合房地产私人有限公司所推出的Sunway Geo、Sunway Velocity 3C1,以及双威威利斯,发展总值高达7亿令吉。

不仅如此,双威也从过去的产业计划中吸取经验,持续在新计划中放大优点、改善缺点,且适当地结合潮流新理念,让新计划更为吸睛,容易打入消费者心坎。

双威控股产业部董事经理何汉生表示,除了优秀的地理位置,这些产业计划有着周全的策划,拥有良好的设备、基建、安全,并集合了时下新概念,未来资本升值的潜能极大。

写3年最大跌幅 8月出口萎缩4.5%


写3年最大跌幅 8月出口萎缩4.5%
Created 10/06/2012 - 08:08
(吉隆坡5日讯)由于出口至欧洲、中国和印度电子电器产品放缓,导致我国出口连续第二个月下跌,8月份出口按年萎缩4.5%,是自2009年以来最严重的跌幅。

国际贸易与工业部今日发布文告,8月份出口按年萎缩4.5%至559亿7000万令吉,7月则按年萎缩2.6%。

路透社稍早前对16名分析员进行调查显示,8月份出口预计按年萎缩2.5%。而彭博社进行预测调查取得的中值是萎缩1.7%。

明年才好转

Sunway on track for RM1.3bil sales


The Star Online > Business
Saturday October 6, 2012
Sunway on track for RM1.3bil sales

By THOMAS HUONG
huong@thestar.com.my

SUNWAY Bhd's property development division is on track to achieve its targeted sales of RM1.3bil this year.

The property development and construction group has done RM1bil in property sales to date, says managing director of property development division (Malaysia) Ho Hon Sang.

The major drivers of Sunway's property sales this year include new phases at Sunway South Quay in Bandar Sunway, and Sunway Velocity in Kuala Lumpur.

FGVH – CPO prices versus M&As


The Star Online > Business
Saturday October 6, 2012
FGVH – CPO prices versus M&As

By NG BEI SHAN
beishan@thestar.com.my

THE plunge in crude palm oil (CPO) prices will pressure Felda Global Ventures Holdings Bhd's (FGVH) earnings while recent news on mergers and acquisitions (M&As) is not seen as an immediate re-rating catalyst, analysts say.

OSK Research analyst Gan Jian Bo says the news of M&As does not come as a surprise as it was planned for with the initial public offering (IPO) proceeds.

Successful listing puts FGVH on world map


The Star Online > Business
Saturday October 6, 2012
Successful listing puts FGVH on world map

By HANIM ADNAN
nem@thestar.com.my

IT is exactly 100 days today since Felda Global Ventures Holdings Bhd (FGVH), the world's second largest initial public offering (IPO) this year, was listed on Bursa Malaysia.

FGVH's journey towards a listing has not been the smoothest. FGVH, as a high profile and politically-linked plantation conglomerate, encountered a myriad of challenges both internally and externally that on many occassions threathened to jeopardise its listing exercise.

FGVH embarks on transformation

The Star Online > Business
Saturday October 6, 2012
FGVH embarks on transformation

By HANIM ADNAN
nem@thestar.com.my

WITH its mission to attain a successful listing on Bursa Malaysia accomplished, cash-rich Felda Global Ventures Holdings Bhd (FGVH) is powering ahead to achieve the objectives set under its Strategic Blueprint (2012-2020) that mainly encompasses mergers and acquisitions (M&As) and geographical expansion to better secure the group's growth prospects.

Group president and chief executive officer Datuk Sabri Ahmad says the plantation conglomerate's target mission is to become eight times larger in terms of size and capabilities within the next eight years.

MISC proposes to sell a 50% equity interest in subsidiary


The Star Online > Business
Saturday October 6, 2012
MISC proposes to sell a 50% equity interest in subsidiary

PETALING JAYA: MISC Bhd has proposed to sell a 50% equity interest in its wholly-owned subsidiary, Gumusut-Kakap Semi-Floating Production System Ltd (GKL) for US$305.7mil (RM934.4mil) to Petronas Carigali Sdn Bhd's wholly-owned subsidiary, E&P Venture Solutions Co Sdn Bhd.

The proposed share disposal entails the sale of 305.7 million shares of US$1 (RM3.05) each in GKL, representing 50% of the share capital of GKL, by MISC to EPV, for RM934.4mil.

The principal activity of GKL is the owning and leasing of a semi-submersible floating production system, namely the Gumusut- Kakap Semi-Floating Production System (Gumusut-Kakap Semi-FPS).

Apple's iPad Mini: What It Means for Investors


Apple's iPad Mini: What It Means for Investors
Published: Wednesday, 3 Oct 2012 | 5:46 PM ET
If you needed any more proof that an iPad Mini exists, you're about to get it.

Apple is reportedly getting ready to announce its iPad Mini soon. The Wall Street Journal is reporting that Apple's [AAPL  666.80     -4.65  (-0.69%)   ] Asian suppliers have started production on the 7.85-inch tablet, which is rumored to be announced later this month. Apple may send out invitations as soon as Oct. 10 for the event, with the actual announcement coming Oct. 17.

With Apple announcing so many products this year (iPhone 5, new Macs, new iPad and now an iPad Mini), what could the new tablet mean for investors?

It could be big for investors, said Sterne Agee's Shaw Wu.

专栏:领导层更替能否提振中国股市


18大日期已定 投资者仍谨慎观望
Craig Stephen

中国政府即将重新开始运作,这可能会让投资者感到松了一口气。在中国政府确定了将于下个月召开18大之后,人们等待已久的领导层换届如今又近了一步。

在国家驱动色彩浓重的经济体中,对于习惯于从政府政策中得到启示的投资者来说,这个消息很重要。

今年的大部分时间里,政府的表现一直让人失望。尽管越来越多的迹象表明中国经济正在滑入越来越严重的衰退之中,中国政府却显然没有政策干预的意愿。上证综合指数(Shanghai Composite Index)年初迄今跌幅超过5%,再次逼近2000点大关,投资者已经受到了打击。

PhillipCapital Weekly Market Watch 01.10.2012

新加坡计划让公众公司拥有双层股票结构


新加坡计划让公众公司拥有双层股票结构
文: 道琼斯通讯社 (译:麦美莹) 2012年10月04日 道琼斯通讯社
新加坡政府在星期三宣布,当局有计划让新加坡公众公司(public companies)发行无投票权及多投票权股票。此举是让本地的股票交易所在吸引新股上市方面能够提高竞争力及增强本国作为亚洲金融中心的地位。

财政部在一份文告中表示,当政府接受为修订公司法而由国家任命的指导委员会的建议后,新加坡公众公司现行的“一股一投票权的限制将会取消”。这将为本地公众公司采取双层股票结构铺平道路,但这必须先符合公司的内部规则及保障现有公司股东的权益。

财政部表示: “这将会让公司在集资方面更具弹性及符合投资者的意愿。” 它计划在征询公众的意见后,在明年初将修订法案提交给新加坡国会通过。

德拉吉: 短期不减息 欧央行随时出招买债


德拉吉: 短期不减息 欧央行随时出招买债
Created 10/05/2012 - 21:22

(法兰克福5日讯)欧洲央行维持基准利率0.75%不变,行长德拉吉指出,央行提出的新买债计划有助于纾缓金融市场紧张情绪,只要符合条件,已准备好随时出手买债。

他同时透露,会上没有讨论在未来数月的短期内再度减息的可能。

德拉吉的言论刺激欧元汇价上扬,兑美元升至逼近1.3水平,高见1.2996。

分析指欧元区上月通胀升温至2.7%,令欧央行难有减息空间。

量化目標欠奉 量寬先天不足


量化目標欠奉 量寬先天不足
美國聯儲局剛公布的九月份議息會議紀錄顯示,與會官員對於應否為通脹與失業率設下特定目標,作為第三輪量化寬鬆措施(QE3)進退的政策指引,出現意見分歧,再次凸顯聯儲局推出新一輪量寬政策,雖然順應市場的期望,政策本身並未經過詳細討論,難免予人急就章的印象。

以芝加哥聯儲銀行行長埃文斯為首的「目標」派,認為只要失業率低於百分之七,就可忍受通脹率升至百分之三,但局方其他成員對於具體目標應訂在哪一水平,最終未達成共識,樂觀估計最快可在十月份會議討論時拍板落實,否則拖延得愈久,對聯儲局的公信力愈不利。

姑勿論「一鼓作氣,再而衰,三而竭」的中國古訓,是否適用於評估QE3的成敗,但很明顯的是,聯儲局官員最初推出量寬政策時,犯了低估金融海嘯問題嚴重性的毛病,因此要不斷出招。現在聯儲局官員對於如何為量寬政策設定進退依據的準繩各執一詞,令人擔心量寬措施最終可能變成「易進難退」的政策陷阱,牢牢套緊聯儲局的決策和美國經濟前景。

零售業驟陷谷底

零售業驟陷谷底
本港八月零售數字較預期差,珠寶鐘錶類銷貨額更是自○九年來首跌,瑞信及交銀國際「踩多腳」發表報告預期,零售業增長前景仍然疲弱。珠寶股龍頭周大福(01929)承認,現時為行業最差的時候;亦有珠寶商坦言,內地旅客「出手」不似以前「咁闊綽」。

周大福:有機會好轉
周大福董事總經理黃紹基對本報表示,本港零售市道受經濟大環境影響,且去年基數實在太高,今年零售有所回落是十分正常的。又指現時為行業最差的時候,期望待內地政府換屆後,零售就有機會好轉,因此集團對前景仍持審慎樂觀的態度。

有珠寶商表示,受內地經濟放緩及「十八大」召開前夕等不明朗氣氛影響,內地旅客「出手」受到一定程度的影響,坦言內地旅客購買珠寶首飾的數目有所下跌。臨近年底珠寶金飾行業一貫會推出折扣優惠吸引客戶,不過他指今年於優惠產品的組成及組合上會考慮更多,以配合現時的經濟環境。

四大內銀吼住渣打股權


四大內銀吼住渣打股權
歐美經濟疲弱不振,再有券商發表報告,指內地大型銀行有意拓闊版圖,下一站或為涉足新興巿場業務的歐美銀行。分析指財力雄厚的四大國有銀行,有可能購入淡馬錫持有的18%渣打集團(02888)股權。

對歐美銀行興趣日濃
巴克萊昨日發表報告指出,自○六年起,中資行開始透過收購或設立分行拓展海外業務,惟主要集中於新興巿場及亞洲地區。隨着中國在世界經濟中扮演的角色日漸加重,內銀將其業務版圖拓展至歐美等已發展國家的興趣提升,並有助開拓收入來源及分散風險。

渣打淡馬錫隔空「開火」
報告料總部設於歐美地區,但業務範圍涉足新興巿場的銀行,對內銀較具吸引力。分析指出,早前傳聞新加坡淡馬錫有意出售手上持有之18%渣打股份,四大國有銀行或是潛在買家。

金價撲千八牛市12年

金價撲千八牛市12年
歐美以至日本央行近月相繼放水,歐央行行長德拉吉前日揚言已準備好展開買債計劃,刺激黃金需求,倫敦現貨金昨創去年十一月以來新高,高見每安士1,796.1美元,升5.7美元;現貨白金一度高見每安士1,730.5美元,創二月以來新高,升11.5美元。

普爾遜虧損收窄
隨着金價上升,消息透露,「賺錢之神」普爾遜旗下黃金基金九月份升13%,帶動今年以來虧損幅度收窄至3.9%,旗艦基金Advantage Plus及另一隻基金Advantage上月亦分別升3.6%和2.6%,今年以來虧損幅度收窄至14%和11%。

金價今年以來累漲逾14%,邁向連續第十二年牛市,跑贏標普GSCI商品指數和MSCI所有國家世界指數同期2.7%和12%升幅;美銀資料顯示,同期美債回報只有2.1%。

港股破21000 迎A「開門紅」


港股破21000 迎A「開門紅」
投資者「偷步」炒作下周滬深股市復市會「開門紅」,刺激港股連漲五日,並五個月來首度「破關」,重越21,000點,恒指全日漲0.5%或104點,收報21,012點;國指跑贏大市,全日漲1.18%或116點,收報9,965點,有望收復一萬關。

資金續流入亞太區,當中港股基金一洗「走資」頹勢,錄4.01億美元「新錢」流入,「商品大王」羅傑斯揚言,目前中國股市呈現低撈機會。

Latest measures more pre-emptive than cooling

Latest measures more pre-emptive than cooling
by Colin Tan 04:45 AM Oct 06, 2012

If not viewed in the light of the possibly harmful effects of the US Federal Reserve's third round of quantitative easing (QE3) and other stimulus measures by monetary authorities around the world, the "cooling" measures announced yesterday by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) may be seen as the first attempt at curbing the abnormally robust property buying seen this year.

Private home prices rose 0.5 per cent in the third quarter from the April-June quarter, according to the Urban Redevelopment Authority's flash estimate. It may the biggest quarterly rise this year but, really, did we even notice it? We know that prices are already at a high level but can we really tell whether they are higher? Ditto for the 1 per cent rise for homes in the suburbs.

COV prices rise after 9-month decline


COV prices rise after 9-month decline
by Wong Wei Han 04:45 AM Oct 06, 2012

SINGAPORE - The cash-over-valuation amount for resale Housing Development Board (HDB) flats rose for the first time this year in the third quarter, reversing a nine-month downward trend, despite measures by the Government to cool the market.

The overall median COV increased to S$30,000 in the third quarter from S$26,000 in the second quarter, according to the latest market update by Singapore Real Estate Report (SRX). In extreme cases, some owners of Executive flats in Queenstown had requested for COVs of more than S$150,000.

The COV is closely watched as it represents the premium cash amount paid by a buyer above the market valuation of a resale flat, and cannot be financed with a loan.

Genting HK seeking shares in Australia's Echo

Genting HK seeking shares in Australia's Echo
Updated 05:04 PM Oct 05, 2012

MELBOURNE - Genting Hong Kong has approached shareholders of Echo Entertainment Group seeking to boost its stake in the owner of Sydney's only casino, a fund manager who holds Echo shares said.

Genting Hong Kong has applied to Australian regulators to raise its stake in Echo to 25 per cent, potentially pitting it in a battle for the company against Australian billionaire James Packer, who owns a 10 per cent stake.

Two of Genting Group's subsidiaries - Genting Hong Kong (GHK) and Genting Singapore - each bought almost 5 per cent of Echo in June. Packer's Ltd has already sought regulatory approval to boost its holding to 25 per cent.

Construction boom to continue?


Construction boom to continue?
By Rupa Damodaran
rupabanerji@nstp.com.my
2012/10/06

HUGE INFRASTRUCTURE PROJECTS: Sector expanded by 18.9pc between Jan and June 2012, says CIDB
THE construction sector will remain the darling of the Malaysian economy for the next couple of years if its performance for the first half of the year is a measure.

CIDB chief executive officer Datuk Seri Dr Judin Abdul Karim is confident that the momentum can be maintained through 2016.

"For the next few years, the projects would have already started, and they are adequately large to pull us through by which time the world economy would have picked up its reins," he said in an interview.

MISC selling half of semi-FPS stake for US$306m

MISC selling half of semi-FPS stake for US$306m
By Bilqis Bahari
bt@nstp.com.my
2012/10/06

KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysian shipper MISC Bhd is selling half of its 100 per cent stake in Gumusut-Kakap Semi-Floating Production System (L) Ltd (GKL) for US$305.7 million (RM933 million.

The stake, amounting to 305.7 million shares, is being sold to E&P Venture Solutions Co Sdn Bhd (EPV), a wholly-owned subsidiary of Petronas Carigali Sdn Bhd.

The companies sealed the conditional share purchase agreement yesterday, MISC said in a filing to Bursa Malaysia.

Malaysia's new listings hit record US$7.3b


Malaysia's new listings hit record US$7.3b
By Francis Fernandez
bt@nstp.com.my
2012/10/06

Malaysia's 2012 initial public offering (IPO) tally so far rose to about US$7.3 billion (RM22.3 billion), accounting for nearly one-quarter of all new listings in the Asia-Pacific.
It was also a record for the country's stock exchange in raising fresh money for new share sale, surpassing the US$6.9 billion (RM21.07 billion) raised in 2010.

Bursa Malaysia is now ranked fourth globally behind Nasdaq, the New York Stock Exchange and Tokyo First Section, by proceeds raised, according to data compiled by the Thomson Reuters Investment Banking Scorecard.

证券分析:零售增长放缓 周大福估值贵

证券分析:零售增长放缓 周大福估值贵
http://paper.wenweipo.com   [2012-10-06]

国浩资本
 根据香港政府统计处公布,本港8月份的零售总销货价值只按年升4.5%,低于市场共识的5.7%。此外,珠宝首饰、钟表及名贵礼物的零售销货价值在8月份按年跌3.4%,是2009年7月以来首次下跌。

黄金周内地客访港减1成
 本行相信令人失望的零售数据再加上黄金周首4日的内地游客访港人数较去年跌10%,会对一众珠宝股构成沽压。其中周大福(1929)的股价自8月底的表现优于恒生指数6%,主要是由于期间金价急升及市场憧憬黄金周的销售表现强劲。虽然本行对金价的前景看好,但在内地、香港两地的零售销售增长放缓背景下,周大福的估值显得昂贵。

迎A股复市 聚焦5大中资板块


迎A股复市 聚焦5大中资板块
http://paper.wenweipo.com   [2012-10-06]

中资金融股
 内银股一直主导着A股的升跌,法巴表示,内地公布的非制造业PMI未如理想,市场继续预期内地或会在「十八大」前,推出放松银根措施,内银股走势料受支持,较看好的有建行(0939),因为该股技术走势较好,其次为农行(1288),因获摩根大通等大户大手增持,料资金正陆续流入。

 此外,中央放宽1.65万亿元保险资金进入股市,有助改善保险股投资收益,市场看好财险(2328)。至于市场一直料内地会出招撑A股,故证券股亦是投资者的焦点,当中又以海通(6837)被大行看好。

雲頂擬增持澳洲博彩商


雲頂擬增持澳洲博彩商

【本報訊】澳洲博彩業監管機構公佈,雲頂香港(678)正尋求監管機構批准,讓其增持澳洲Echo Entertainment股份至最高25%的申請。雲頂香港是馬來西亞博彩公司雲頂的香港子公司。

雲頂香港暫未披露收購Echo所需資金,但按Echo於澳洲上市總市值32.86澳元計算,25%權益相當於8.215億澳元(約65.27億港元)。

澳洲新南威爾士州獨立酒業及博彩管理局在公告中稱,雲頂香港目前持有Echo 4.24%的股份;Echo在悉尼經營The Star賭場,並且擁有在澳大利亞昆士蘭州經營賭場的許可。市場猜測Echo已成其他賭場運營商的收購目標。

有資格成為亞洲金融大亨

有資格成為亞洲金融大亨

李澤楷(小小超)計劃購入ING香港業務,成為金融大亨之餘,亦可滿足小小超熱衷於「做買賣」的快感。事實上,保險公司其中一項吸引交易員之處,是其坐擁龐大現金可作為投資之用,當年股神畢菲特亦是憑着利用保險公司資金投資,才令身家暴漲。因此,收購保險公司,對於做「刁」(Deal)能力超卓的李澤楷來說,無疑極為吸引。


李澤楷早於1993年,已將其第一單大Deal、出售衛視賺取4億美元(約31.2億港元)的部份資金,在翌年收購鵬利保險,其後更改組為盈科保險。

改組盈保打響名堂
其後於2007年,李澤楷再將該公司50.5%股權賣給富通保險,套現35億港元打響名堂。在保險行業上,李澤楷經營盈保達13年,其實早已成為老手。

李澤楷出78億洽購ING港業務


李澤楷出78億洽購ING港業務

【本報訊】荷蘭國際集團(ING)「斬件」放售亞洲保險資產的進展已屆尾聲,《華爾街日報》引述消息指出,電盈(008)主席李澤楷(小小超),擬洽購ING本港業務的商討已進入最後階段,交易涉及資金估計超過10億美元(約78億港元)。

證券界相信,小小超若再染指保險業,主要是配合旗下柏瑞投資(PineBridge Investments)的發展,並將是其父李嘉誠(超人)今年5月發表「分身家論」,明言以現金支援收購後,小小超首次個人投資行動。

李澤楷發言人接受查詢時,不就傳聞置評。他早於09年,透過私人持有的盈科拓展,以5億美元(約39億港元),收購美國國際集團(AIG)旗下基金及資產管理業務柏瑞投資,並曾邀得前渣打集團(2888)主席戴維思任非執行主席。

內房市場由熱轉冷 「金九銀十」勢落空

內房市場由熱轉冷 「金九銀十」勢落空

長達八天的有史以來最長黃金周已近尾聲,消費呈兩極發展,內地豪客來港掃貨熱情不再,但內地景點逼爆盛況空前,前四日旅客數目和消費均增長兩成以上,房地產則由熱轉冷,為中國經濟把脈難免感到訊息混亂。不過,黃金周將消費力量集中在同一時間爆發,這一觀念在經濟發展初期尚可取得成效,在現時環境顯得不合時宜,更可能會「一節淡三墟」。

今年的長假更碰上「金九銀十」之交匯,樓市和車市特別惹人憧憬,期望承接八月的勢頭更上層樓,但「金九銀十」將很大機會落空,經濟前景不明朗加上政策打壓,使樓宇買家紛紛卻步。大城市一手樓冷清,年中的「小陽春」把之前積壓過久的購買力提前釋放,如今買家卻觀望居多。

大英Blog物館 02.10.12: 要改變陋習 採「縮小改變範圍」法


要改變陋習 採「縮小改變範圍」法
「當下的勝利,才能點燃心中的火苗,而這火苗超級重要。」——《改變很容易》(作者:Chip Heath)

改變之難,在於理性永遠難敵情感。例如希望身體健康,立誓減肥,起初例必鬥志鷹揚,地獄餐單、跑步跳舞,咬牙切齒,甘心受苦,不在話下。苦戰六周,滿懷希望,上磅一秤,體重竟然一磅都減唔到!晴天霹靂,失望至極,「我要減肥為健康」的理智,霎時煙散,多會自暴自棄,立刻約友喪食。

人覺得習慣難改,大多歸因於頑固,或是懶散:「人就係咁硬頸o架嘞,講極我老公都唔聽」、「我老婆懶到死,淨係掛住食」。但《改》一書指出,「『人』看起來懶得改變,通常是疲乏」,而不是態度問題。人天性膽小、懶惰、為了眼前小利(甜品),甘願犧牲長期回報(健康)。這股天性,力量至大,意志力要與之抗衡,猶如騎象人策騎大象,強使大象服從。時間一長,筋疲力盡,便會給大象反過控制全局。

曾淵滄教路 02.10.12: 油煤銅鐵炒唔起 唯獨黃金可看好

油煤銅鐵炒唔起 唯獨黃金可看好
QE3推出後,恒指急升一日,之後就出現上落市的走勢,很大程度受到內地股市的影響,上海綜合指數曾經跌破二千點大關。不過,內地實際上不乏資金,只欠信心,九月二十七日那一天,一則好消息傳出,股民也不分消息真假,當日就炒起A股。

今日恒指有一半是H股,H股股價不可避免會受A股影響,但恒指的另一半,即香港本地的藍籌股表現則相當不錯,特別是地產股。

地產股折讓仍大

地產股股價上升,理由當然是因為樓價升。而且,我們可以發現到,地產商推出的一手樓的價格更遠高於同區二手樓很多,有時差距高達三成,何以一手樓樓價比二手樓差的這麼遠?其中一個原因是按揭貸款的比例,二手樓最多只能向銀行借七成,一手樓除了可向銀行借七成外,另外可以向地產商再借兩成,總共借足九成,這使到不少無力拿出三成首期的人,不得不向地產商買一手樓。

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Singapore takes new steps to cool housing market


Singapore takes new steps to cool housing market
Singapore on Friday set a maximum tenure of 35 years for all new residential property loans as part of new measures to cool its housing market.

The new rules, which take effect from Oct 6, apply to both private homes and government-built Housing and Development Board (HDB) apartments, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) said in a statement.

“Over the last three years, the average tenure for new residential property loans has increased from 25 to 29 years. More than 45% of new residential property loans granted by financial institutions have tenures exceeding 30 years,” MAS said.

“The new rules aim to curb continued upward pressure on residential property prices, driven by low interest rates and rapid credit growth,” the central bank added.

CCT and CMT announce $34.7m asset enhancement for Raffles City Tower


CCT and CMT announce $34.7m asset enhancement for Raffles City Tower
The managers of CapitaCommercial Trust (CCT) and CapitaMall Trust (CMT) have announced a $34.7 million asset enhancement initiative (AEI) for Raffles City Tower, the 42-storey office tower of Raffles City Singapore.

An iconic landmark in Singapore, Raffles City comprises Raffles City Tower, Raffles City Shopping Centre, two hotels -- Swissôtel The Stamford and Fairmont Singapore -- and Raffles City Convention Centre.

Raffles City Tower had its common areas (including restrooms) and lift cars last upgraded in 1994 and 2010 respectively. The latest AEI will create a superior working environment for all office tenants. The enhancements include upgrading of the main lobby and installation of security turnstiles and close-circuit television system, as well as refurbishment of common areas, lift lobbies and restrooms on all office floors. Office tenants will continue to operate in the building with minimal disruption. The total estimated capital expenditure of the AEI is S$34.7 million and is expected to achieve a projected return on investment of 8.6%.

Olam acquires 50% stake in Acacia Investments for $43m

Olam acquires 50% stake in Acacia Investments for $43m

Olam International, the global, integrated supply chain manager and processor of agricultural products and food ingredients, announced today that it has acquired 50% of shares and voting rights in Acacia Investments for a total consideration of US$35 million ($43 million).

Acacia Investments is a business group based in the United Arab Emirates with a significant presence in edible oil refining and distribution in East Africa.

Ranveer Chauhan, Olam’s Managing Director and Global Head of Palm, says: “AI has developed a strong brand franchise and deep knowledge of the local edible oil refining industry in East Africa. Olam on the other hand offers a strong distribution network which we have successfully developed over the years by distributing various bulk commodities like rice, wheat flour and dairy products across multiple countries in East and Southern Africa.

內銀購歐銀興趣濃


內銀購歐銀興趣濃


歐美經濟疲弱不振,再有券商發表報告,指內地大型銀行有意拓闊版圖,下一站或為涉足新興巿場業務的歐美銀行。分析指出財力雄厚的四大國有銀行,有可能購入淡馬錫持有的18%渣打集團(02888)股權。

巴克萊昨日發表報告指出,自○六年起,中資行開始透過收購或設立分行拓展海外業務,惟主要集中於新興巿場及亞洲地區。隨着中國在世界經濟中扮演的角色日漸加重,內銀將其業務版圖拓展至歐美等已發展國家的興趣提升,並有助開拓收入來源及分散風險。

報告料總部設於歐美地區,但業務範圍涉足新興巿場的銀行,對內銀較具吸引力。分析指出,早前傳聞新加坡淡馬錫有意出售手上持有之18%渣打股份,四大國有銀行或是潛在買家。

零售前景差 券商踩多腳

零售前景差 券商踩多腳

本港八月零售數字較預期差,珠寶鐘錶類銷貨額更是自○九年來首跌,瑞信及交銀國際「踩多腳」發表報告預期,零售業增長前景仍然疲弱。珠寶股龍頭周大福(01929)承認,現時為行業最差的時候。

周大福:現時最艱難

周大福董事總經理黃紹基對本報稱,本港零售市道去年基數實在太高,今年零售有所回落是十分正常的。又指現時為行業最差的時候,期望待內地政府換屆後,零售就有機會好轉,因此集團對前景仍持審慎樂觀的態度。

H股躍起博A有喜


H股躍起博A有喜


投資者「偷步」炒作下周滬深股市復市會「開門紅」,刺激港股連漲五個交易日,並且五個月來首度「破關」,重越21,000點,恒生指數全日漲0.5%或104點,收報21,012點;國企指數跑贏大市,全日漲1.18%或116點,收報9,965點,有望收復一萬點關。資金繼續流入亞太區,當中港股基金一洗「走資」頹勢,錄得4.01億美元「新錢」流入,「商品大王」羅傑斯揚言,目前中國股市呈現低撈機會。

港股ADR周五跟隨美股高開,滙控(00005)高見75.637元,較本港昨日收市價高1.287元;中移(00941)報86.073元,高0.173元。按比例推算,相當恒指再漲210點。

滬深復市料開門紅

昨日恒指高開99點後,最多漲113點,國指則最多漲125點,港股總成交453億元。全周計,恒指累漲172點,為連續第五周上揚;國指連漲第二周,本周累漲133點。「空軍」繼續收斂,昨日港股沽空額微降至38.97億元,沽空比率只有8.61%。

QE3效應 樓價指數創新高

最新高價成交
QE3效應 樓價指數創新高
首升穿110關 北角健威呎價近萬


第三輪量化寬鬆(QE3)對樓市正面影響,抵銷政府出招負面因素,樓價續向上衝,反映二手樓價走勢的中原城市領先指數(CCL)首度升穿110點,再創歷史新高,升勢蔓延至二綫屋苑,北角健威花園呎造萬元創新高。

馬國際船務 售股權資產獲利53億

馬國際船務 售股權資產獲利53億

吉隆坡5日訊)馬國際船務(MISC,3816,主要板貿易)3億570萬美元(約9.3億令吉)將旗下GKL公司50%股權售予馬石油探勘(Petronas Carigali)。

 該公司總執行長拿督納莎魯丁指出,在脫售上述股權之前,GKL于上週四剛以20億3800萬美元(約62.2億令吉)向馬國際船務收購Gumusut-Kakap Semi-FPS。

 上述收購案的付款方法是以每股1美元(約3.05令吉)發行6億1140萬GKL新股,並拖欠馬國際船務14億2600萬美元(約43.6億令吉)進行。

手握近8千万现金 旧街场再集资引关注

手握近8千万现金 旧街场再集资引关注
 二零一二年十月五日 晚上七时二十四分

(吉隆坡5日讯)拥有充裕现金的旧街场有限公司(OLDTOWN,5201,贸易服务组)再次透过配售新股集资逾6000万令吉,引起市场的关注。

刚于一年前上市大马交易所的旧街场,建议私下配售约3300万新股,或现有股票基础的约10%,予尚未公布的本地和海外基金经理。

这项私下配售已引发不同的舆论,一些分析师对这家拥有净现金地位7850万令吉,以及借贷仅1420万令吉的公司,从资本市场集资的原因存有疑问。

雲頂香港尋求增持澳Echo股權


雲頂香港尋求增持澳Echo股權

(吉隆坡5日讯)澳洲博彩业监管机构表示,云顶(GENTING,3182,主板贸服股)在香港旗下的游轮公司--云顶香港,正寻求监管机构批准,增持澳洲Echo娱乐集团股权至最高25%的申请。

澳洲新南威尔士州独立酒业及博彩管理局在文告中称,云顶香港目前已持有Echo娱乐集团的4.24%股份,而后者在悉尼经营的TheStar赌场,是当地唯一一家赌场。此外,该集团也拥有在澳洲昆士兰州经营赌场的许可。

Echo娱乐集团目前已成为其他赌场营运商的收购目標。其中,澳洲亿万富豪詹姆斯帕克(James Packer)旗下的皇冠集团(Crown)也在有意增持Echo娱乐集团的股份,而不让大马赌场大亨丹斯里林国泰所掌控的云顶香港专美。

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Japan's Deflation Woes

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Much Ado About ECB's Bond Buying

Apple & Its Tablet Competitors


Friday, October 5, 2012

8月出口急跌4.5% 未来数月前景不乐观


8月出口急跌4.5% 未来数月前景不乐观
(吉隆坡5日讯)由于欧洲、中国和印度对电子和电器產品的需求下滑,致使大马8月份出口按年急跌4.5%,至559亿7000万令吉,写下2009年9月份以来的最大跌幅。国內经济学家普遍认为,未来几个月的出口数据料持续疲弱,並考虑调低2012年全年出口成长预测。

根据大马国际贸易与工业部(MITI)发佈的最新数据,今年8月份的贸易总额是1048亿4000万令吉,比去年同期的1061亿7000万令吉下降1.25%。大马和多个国家之间的贸易额面对不同程度的跌幅,包括泰国、卡塔尔和法国。8月的贸易出超从7月的36亿令吉升至71亿令吉。

同时,出口数据按连续2个月走跌,8月份出口按年跌4.5%,至559亿7000万令吉,较《彭博社》综合16名经济学家所预测的平均跌幅1.7%更为严重。7月份修正后出口跌幅为2.6%。8月份进口按年扬升2.8%,至488亿8000万令吉,主要是由资本商品(Capital Goods)的进口增加8亿5690万令吉所推动。

Singapore To Allow Dual-Class Share Structure For Public Companies

04 OCTOBER 2012
Singapore To Allow Dual-Class Share Structure For Public Companies
By Dow Jones Newswires
The Singapore government said Wednesday it plans to allow public companies in the city-state to issue nonvoting and multiple-vote shares, in a move that would help the local stock exchange compete for new listings and bolster the city-state’s reputation as an Asian financial center.

Singapore’s existing “one-share-one-vote restriction will be removed for public companies” after the government accepted advice from a state-appointed panel to amend its Companies Act, the Ministry of Finance said in a statement. This would pave the way for public companies here to adopt a dual-class share structure, if permitted by the companies’ internal rules and subject to safeguards aimed at protecting rights of existing shareholders.

Johor to be richest state by 2025


Johor to be richest state by 2025

2012/10/05

Johor is to emerge as the richest state in Malaysia by 2025, overtaking Selangor, if the current trend of development pace and investment inflows continues, an analyst with an investment bank said today.

Dr Nazri Khan, Affin Investment Bank Vice-President and Retail Research Head, said the projection was not something impossible to achieve with Iskandar Malaysia, one of the five economic corridors in Malaysia, having attracted more than one-fourth of the RM383 billion total investment target by 2025.

He said the economic growth brought to Johor by Khazanah Nasional Bhd, the government's investment arm, is seen as among concerted initiatives by the government to establish an economic hub in Johor outside the Klang Valley.

原棕油价格料已触底 种植股趁势回杨


原棕油价格料已触底 种植股趁势回杨

(吉隆坡4日讯)随着马银投资银行在一项投资报告中称,原棕油价格料已触底,导致种植股于今日收市时纷纷回扬,在十大涨幅排名中竟占了3个席位,而种植股指数收市时涨80.02点至8160.90点。然而,马银投资银行认为种植股仍有可能出现恐慌性抛售,因为它们在近期原棕油价格猛跌后而未完全调整过来。

下午5时收市时,森那美有限公司(SIME,4197,贸易服务组)股价狂涨27仙或2.86%至9.68令吉、吉隆坡甲洞有限公司(KLK,2445,种植组)高涨62仙或2.96%至21.52令吉、峇都交湾有限公司(BKAWAN,1899,种植组)起14仙或0.78%至17.94令吉。

此外,联合种植有限公司(UTDPLT,2089,种值组)涨40仙或1.63%至24.90令吉,但是全球创投有限公司(FGV,5222,种植组)落4仙或0.83%至4.76 令吉。

與皇冠一較高下‧雲頂擬增購Echo娛樂至25%

與皇冠一較高下‧雲頂擬增購Echo娛樂至25%
Created 10/05/2012 - 17:43
(吉隆坡5日訊)雲頂(GENTING,3182,主板貿服組)旗下子公司雲頂香港進一步申請把澳洲悉尼Echo娛樂公司持股上限調高至25%,且消息指雲頂香港正尋求增購Echo娛樂5%股權,正面與澳洲富豪帕克爾旗下皇冠集團(Crown Ltd)一較高低。

《路透社》引述來自基金經理的消息稱,某位不知名買家已經與Echo娛樂的澳籍股東接觸,尋求收購這些股東的持股。

“上週五報導指某位買家正尋求收購Echo娛樂5%股權,基金經理指市場廣泛揣測該買家即是有意把持股增加至10%的雲頂香港。"

另外,根據《彭博社》消息,目前持有Echo娛樂4.2%股權的雲頂香港,已正式向新南威爾斯烈酒和賭博監管局申請上調股權上限至25%,該局目前正評估雲頂香港及其競爭對手上呈的申請書。

歐債發酵‧8月出口萎縮4.5%‧2009年來最大跌幅


歐債發酵‧8月出口萎縮4.5%‧2009年來最大跌幅
Created 10/05/2012 - 17:45
(吉隆坡5日訊)全球經濟放緩、對歐洲、中國與印度的電子電器出口銳減,導致大馬8月出口按年萎縮4.5%,寫下2009年以來最大跌幅。

根據國際貿易部數據,8月出口萎縮4.5%,比經修正後的7月出口萎縮2.6%更為深跌。《彭博社》對16名經濟學家綜合調查的中間值,則為萎縮1.7%。

出口至歐盟萎縮24%

8月進口成長2.8%,而貿易盈餘由7月的36億令吉,進一步擴大至71億令吉。

歐債危機發酵,出口至歐盟各國萎縮24.2%至47億5千萬令吉,主要下跌的出口品為電子電器、化學、原橡膠與原棕油。

大選後更多合約出籠‧建築業展望仍亮麗


大選後更多合約出籠‧建築業展望仍亮麗
Created 10/05/2012 - 10:09
(吉隆坡4日訊)儘管政府預期大馬建築業在今明年將呈雙位數成長,但建築股卻在大選變數的陰影下持續表現落後大市,分析員認為,預料在大選過後將會有更多大型合約出籠,建築業前景依然亮麗。

隨著捷運雙溪毛糯-加影(SBK)線的大部份工程都已頒發,以及最新預算案未公佈新的基建計劃,新工程將可能減少,惟分析員預見大選舉行後,一旦局勢明朗化,建築領域將再掀新工程合約熱潮。

第三季合約按年跌40%

僑豐研究統計上市公司的文告顯示,上市公司在第三季獲頒的合約共34億令吉,其中31億令吉為本地工程合約,按年共下跌了40%和按季減少39%。

新分店減少‧巴迪尼評級中和

新分店減少‧巴迪尼評級中和
Created 10/04/2012 - 19:08
(吉隆坡4日訊)雖然巴迪尼控股(PADINI,7052,主板消費品組)開設新分店計劃可能因缺乏新購物廣場而不得不減速,印尼業務及新鞋品牌還未成氣候,但分析員認為,新分店按年貢獻可觀收入利好,依然可讓該公司有利可圖。

僑豐投資銀行表示,該公司於本財政年開設14間新店,其中6家為品牌分店(Brands Outlet),其中飛輪海88新店上個月投入運作,面積達2萬平方呎,料推動該公司收入按年增長25.4%。

該行指出,品牌分店錄得超過20%同店銷售成長率,而巴迪尼概念店(Padini Concept Store)及Vincci則各取得15%同店銷售成長率。

但由於新購物廣場建設減產,導致零售空間受限,該行預見國內開設新分店的計劃將放緩。

銷售破10億‧雙威前景可期


銷售破10億‧雙威前景可期
Created 10/05/2012 - 10:01
(吉隆坡4日訊)雙威(SUNWAY,5211,主板產業組)建築訂單強勁,產業發展計劃銷售突破10億令吉可期,未進賬銷售與建築訂單達60萬令吉,明年準備再推出3億4千萬產業計劃,前景亮麗可期。

大馬研究最近會晤其管理層,認為其建築訂單與產業發展皆表現不俗,其中建築訂單36億令吉訂單,可使公司忙碌3至5年;其中替換訂單超越目標的15億令吉,新訂單目標提高至20億令吉,即在年杪前再獲3億至4億令吉新訂單。

產業發展方面,預期雙威可超越其修訂的10億吉銷售目標(原本為8億令吉),截至6月已達致

出口稅若降可解近憂‧不重演2008年悲劇‧棕油價料無大調整


出口稅若降可解近憂‧不重演2008年悲劇‧棕油價料無大調整
Created 10/05/2012 - 10:06
(吉隆坡4日訊)棕油出口稅下調有望,令近期士氣大落的棕油業有望“起死回生",但基於全球經濟放緩導致需求暴跌才是棕油業當前困境,分析員認為,即使棕油出口稅下調或也只能暫緩棕油壓力。

棕油價未來兩個月料失色

另外,棕油價自9月中急挫21%,更由2012年高峰猛挫38%,引起重演2008年棕油價大調整的隱憂,惟分析員相信,“重蹈覆轍"可能性不大,但因10月棕油庫存可能創另一巔峰,棕油價未來1至2個月仍可能黯然失色。

专家料港股第四季稳中向上 荐四只必买蓝筹


专家料港股第四季稳中向上 荐四只必买蓝筹
2012年10月04日16:45腾讯财经

10月4日消息,据港媒报道,市场人士估计,第四季港股偏稳,选出4只第四季必买蓝筹股腾讯、友邦保险、和记黄埔和恒基地产。由于内地股市下周才复市,港股本周市况或仍较淡静,下周或见较明显趋势。走势上,恒指一度突破21000点,已完成本栏的初步目标,大市整固后,上升的动力仍较大,可上望2月高位21760点。

参考港股2000年至今的第四季走势,上升次数达9次,上升的机会率达75%。此外,过去7次港股第三季上升后,其中6次第四季会继续升,而上升幅度略低于第三季。而今年恒指第三季上升7%。

专家料港股第四季稳中向上 荐四只必买蓝筹

黄国英(微博):投资者重防守
报道称专家普遍认为港股第四季较稳定。丰盛金融资产管理董事黄国英指,港股第四季整体稳定,因料本地地产股及银行股等走势不会差,但整体方向则较“难睇”,因美国大选临近等因素或令大市波动。从买卖盘路看,昨日防守股如粤投(00270)、香港电讯(06823)等上升,反映投资者现时不太冒进。黄国英估计,恒指第四季可于19500至21700点上落。

郭家耀:末季港股偏稳
海通国际环球投资策略部副总裁郭家耀指,恒指第四季偏稳。主要原因,是欧债问题略纾缓,及欧美持续放水,加上十八大日期确认,对中港股市起利好作用。他估计,大市短线先行整固,但于20000点有支持,第四季将于19500至22000点间上落。

港股第四季料稳定,大型蓝筹股中,专家最看好本地地产股。黄国英指,本地地产股的政策大致已推出,未来土地供应透明度增,令本地地产商卖楼的步伐较顺畅,形成货如轮转的情形。郭家耀则指,本地楼价下跌空间不大,料短期仍有资金买入地产股。

至于其它蓝筹股,专家有不同看法。黄国英较看好非中资类,例如友邦(01299)、和黄(00013)等。郭家耀则认为中资股第四季可追落后,故看好保险股如国寿(02628)。

另券商早前亦有为港股第四季把脉。汇丰给予恒指年底目标21000点,看好恒地(00012)、银娱(00027)等。花旗则最看好本地地产股及收租股。



Source/Extract/Excerpts/来源/转贴/摘录: 腾讯财经
Publish date: 04/10/12

末日博士:美国经济明年仍存风险


末日博士:美国经济明年仍存风险

(纽约4日讯)末日博士鲁比尼表示,纵使政治人物达成协议,避免所谓的財政断崖,美国经济明年仍难以招架財政乱象。

鲁比尼表示,美国国会议员若能达成协议,或可避免最严重的阻力,但经济仍然面临崩解的风险。

鲁比尼在纽约大学任教,也是一家以他为名的顾问公司主席。鲁比尼在2008年金融危机爆发前的正確预言,为他贏得末日博士的称號。

除非美国国会能打破党派僵局,针对预算赤字达成协议,否则美国明年就会面临財政断崖,亦即自动加税及减支6000亿美元(约1.8兆令吉)。

Rejection of cash distribution credit negative for ThaiBev


Rejection of cash distribution credit negative for ThaiBev
Business & Markets 2012

Written by Kamarul Anwar of theedgemalaysia.com  
Friday, 05 October 2012 08:44

SINGAPORE: The surprise move by Thai Beverage Pcl (ThaiBev) to block Fraser & Neave Ltd’s (F&N) proposed cash distribution after the F&N’s recent divestment does not augur well for the Thai group.

Moody’s Investors Service said the sale of Asia Pacific Breweries Ltd (APB) to Heineken NV and the rejection of the cash payout to shareholders are credit negative for beer and spirits producer, ThaiBev, which is also a shareholder in F&N. Its leverage is likely to remain elevated and exposes risks to its miscellaneous businesses, the rating firm commented.

Technical analysts: Volatility emerging at 1,683 points for FBM KLCI

Technical analysts: Volatility emerging at 1,683 points for FBM KLCI
Business & Markets 2012

Written by Cindy Yeap of theedgemalaysia.com  
Friday, 05 October 2012 10:27

KUALA LUMPUR (Oct 5): Technical analysts seem bullish on the possibility of the bellwether FBM KLCI hitting new highs today, but pointed out that volatility may be seen as it inches closer to the 1,683 point-level.

In its technical reading report this morning, Maybank Investment Bank Research (Maybank IB) pointed out that "volatility may emerge at current lofty levels" or near the bellwether index's upside target of 1,683 points, should it overcome the immediate resistance of 1,662 points.

Hot Stock KNM active, up 7% on rights issue, Borsig listing


Hot Stock KNM active, up 7% on rights issue, Borsig listing
Business & Markets 2012

Written by Chong Jin Hun of theedgemalaysia.com  
Friday, 05 October 2012 14:33

KUALA LUMPUR (Oct 5): KNM GROUP BHD [] rose as much as 7%, placing shares of the process equipment manufacturer among the most actively traded entities across the exchange.

Analysts said investors could be capitalising on the beaten-down stock to gain a cheaper entry into the firm before the stock trades ex-rights this month.

OSK Research Sdn Bhd analyst Danny Chan said the potential listing of KNM's wholly-owned unit Borsig may also be a crucial factor driving prices and volume of the KNM shares today (Friday). "Borsig and the rights issue are two key factors," Chan told theedgemalaysia.com over telephone today.

Malaysia IPOs break all-time record

Malaysia IPOs break all-time record
2012/10/05

SINGAPORRE: The US$1.5 billion initial public offering (IPO) from broadcast TV operator, Astro Malaysia Holdings Bhd, became Malaysia's third multi-billion dollar listing this year and pushed the volume of IPOs from Malaysian companies to US$7.3 billion for year-to-date 2012, already besting the all-time annual record set in 2010 (US$6.9 billion).

According to Thomson Reuters Investment Banking Scorecard, bolstered by a flurry of offerings, Kuala Lumpur listings now rank fourth globally behind Nasdaq, the New York Stock Exchange and Tokyo First Section, by proceeds raised.


Genting HK applies to up stake in Echo

2012/10/05

Genting Hong Kong Ltd, the cruise ship company controlled by Lim Kok Thay, has applied to lift its stake in Echo Entertainment Group Ltd to 25 percent amid a fight with billionaire James Packer over Sydney’s only casino.

Genting Hong Kong, with a 4.2 percent stake in Echo, has applied to the New South Wales Liquor and Gaming Authority to increase its share and the regulator is investigating the plan along with its counterpart in neighboring Queensland state, the agency said in a statement on its website.

鲁比尼:除非国会打破僵局 美经济明年有崩解风险


鲁比尼:除非国会打破僵局 美经济明年有崩解风险
Created 10/05/2012 - 11:10
(纽约4日讯)鲁比尼指出,纵使政治人物达成协议,避免所谓的财政断崖,美国经济明年仍然难以招架财政乱象。

鲁比尼在2008年金融危机爆发前的正确预言为他赢得“末日博士”的称号。

鲁比尼接受彭博电视访问时说,国会议员若能达成协议,或可避免最严重的阻力,但经济仍然面临崩解的风险。

除非国会能打破党派僵局,针对预算赤字达成协议,否则美国明年就会面临财政断崖,亦即自动加税及减支6000亿美元(1.83兆令吉)。

Phillip Securities tips Singapore picks to play in 4Q12

Phillip Securities tips Singapore picks to play in 4Q12
Equity indexes’ underlying technicals are on an uptrend, Phillip Securities says, noting its Overweight Asean, Underweight US stance.

For 4Q12, it tips going long on Singapore plays with quality business models and the ability to grow earnings and dividends, such as SIA Engineering, SATS, ST Engineering, Sembcorp, ComfortDelGro and SingTel. It tips going long on gold on QE3, citing SPDR Gold Trust ETF.

It recommends going long on mortgage-backed securities and US homebuilders, citing Vanguard MBS ETF and SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF, as the Fed’s plan to buy US$40 billion MBS/month indefinitely will lower mortgage yields and help increase home construction.

OCBC raises CapitaCommercial target price


OCBC Investment Research raised its target price on CapitaCommercial Trust to $1.62 from $1.53, and kept its ‘buy’ rating, citing better-than-expected outlook for office rentals.

At 9:08 a.m., units of CapitaCommercial were up 0.3% at $1.515. They have surged 43.6% since the start of the year, compared with the FTSE ST Real Estate Industrial Trust’s 31.3% gain.

OCBC said grade A office rentals in Singapore are likely to show a smaller decline in the third quarter, and vacancies in the central business district reversed their rising trend, falling 0.9%age point in the second quarter to 8.4%.

“We expect a similar trend for vacancies in the third quarter, which would likely contribute to a muted rate of rental decline,” said OCBC.

棕油价续跌恐引抛售 投资者应套利观望

棕油价续跌恐引抛售 投资者应套利观望
Created 10/05/2012 - 10:58
(吉隆坡4日讯)随着原棕油价格持续下滑,分析员谨慎看待种植股的短期走势,并建议投资者可先套利再静观其变。

原棕油价格在过去两个星期已下滑了21%,引起市场担忧原棕油价格或将陷入低迷期。

然而,同期间种植股并没有受到太大的冲击,大马交易所种植指数在过去两周仅下跌了5%。

根据过往纪录,种植指数和原棕油价格走势关系密切,自2005年以来的相关系数达0.95倍;然而,在过去一年的相关系数已跌至0.32倍。

降低经常账赤字 印尼让货币贬值


降低经常账赤字 印尼让货币贬值
Created 10/05/2012 - 11:12
(雅加达4日讯)印尼央行经济调研和金融政策执行经理佩尔里披露,央行将采取措施让印尼盾能够按步呈弱,以降低经常账赤字。

佩尔里阐明,印尼盾受到打折将使进口量受控而对出口却有利。

虽然如此,央行将继续维持盾币的波幅微小稳定,避免动荡。

央行继续加强金融行动以维持盾值兑换率稳定并控制资金外流。

亚洲银行家500 星展银行跃升亚太十强


亚洲银行家500 星展银行跃升亚太十强
Created 10/05/2012 - 11:14
(新加坡4日讯)星展银行(DBS)被选为新加坡最强银行,名列“亚洲银行家500”(The Asian Banker500)亚太排行榜十强。

《联合早报》报道,该银行从去年的排名第19,跃升到今年的第10位,也是唯一入10强的新加坡银行。

“亚洲银行家500”报告指出,由于亚洲区域银行资产去年增长快速,亚洲银行资产势必在3年内超越美国和欧盟区同行。

新世界藍圖 大行睇好


新世界藍圖 大行睇好
新世界發展(00017)第三代管理層、執行董事兼聯席總經理鄭志剛,近日與里昂及美銀美林分析員會面時表示,父親鄭家純主要負責集團發展大方向,自己則集中日常運作。

鄭志剛又披露集團發展目標及策略,包括要重返本港發展商三甲位置、盡量避免採用股本融資、將一三年在港項目合約銷售金額目標調高七成至150億元、成立委員會制訂長遠資金流預測等。

里昂及美銀美林看好新世界發展前景,重申「買入」投資評級,給予目標價13.75及14元。券商唱好下,昨日新世界發展股價上漲2.62%,收報12.5元,創五十二周新

東亞再遭非執董拋售


東亞再遭非執董拋售
東亞銀行(00023)非執行董事邱繼炳,於個多月間連續減持東亞股份,合共套現超過1.1億元。

聯交所資料顯示,邱繼炳於九月二十八日及十月三日,連續兩個交易日在場內減持東亞21萬股,每股平均價介乎29.16元至29.237元,套現六百多萬元,持好倉由0.07%降至0.06%。

東亞股價昨逆市跌1%。
自東亞公布中期業績後,邱繼炳先後多次減持股份。他首先於八月二十一日起,連續四日沽出東亞股份,總數達189.41萬股,涉資達5,598萬元。及至九月十八至二十一日,亦連續四日減持合共124.74萬股,套現約3,600萬元。

黃金狂飆 黑金暴瀉

黃金狂飆 黑金暴瀉
國際油價上月經歷閃電跌市後,周三再度急挫最多逾4%,跌穿每桶90美元;而金價則愈戰愈勇,彭博社統計顯示,截至本月三日為止,交易所買賣產品(ETF)持有黃金數量增至破紀錄的2,554.335噸,倫敦現貨金價昨創今年新高,直撲每安士1,800美元;以南非蘭特計更曾創紀錄新高。

周三紐約十一月期油每桶曾急挫4.19美元,創去年十二月中來最大單日跌市,全日收報88.14美元,下挫3.75美元,為兩個月新低,並且較九月十四日美國聯儲局宣布第三輪量化寬鬆措施(QE3)後創下的每桶99美元四個月高位回落11%。受敍利亞與土耳其炮擊消息刺激紐約期油周四美國早段反彈,報89.23美元,升1.09美元。

產油量增 地緣風險降
Jefferies Bache能源經紀勒博表示,近日油價走勢與股市脫軌,主要是因為油市焦點轉至供求關係上,現時需求停滯不前,相反供應不斷增加。美國能源部周三公布,美國本土產油量增至每日652萬桶,創九六年十二月來新高,然而汽油需求量則按年減少3.6%至十年新低。海外方面,伊拉克石油產量創三十年新高,沙特阿拉伯則提供額外供應來平抑油價。

除供應增、需求降外,麥格理能源對沖基金銷售主管吉多將油價急挫歸咎於市場意識到中國經濟情況較六個月前估計為差,形容目前油市十分脆弱。有市場人士認為,油價回落不排除因早前唱好油價的交易員開始獲利平倉有關。此外,中東地緣政治風險有降溫迹象,以色列總理內塔尼亞胡上周暗示以色列短期內不會向伊朗核設施發動攻擊,同樣不利油價。

但各國央行實施寬鬆政策,似乎對金價繼續帶來支持。日本央行今日公布議息結果,昨日歐央行公布議息結果後,倫敦現貨金價曾漲16.8美元,每安士見1,794.8美元。ETF Securities報告顯示,投資者過去六周投入黃金產品的資金達10億美元。

证券推介:联想短期可上试7元

证券推介:联想短期可上试7元
http://paper.wenweipo.com   [2012-10-05]  
时富金融
 联想集团(0992)周三表示,正计划于美国北卡罗来纳州开设首间工厂。集团指,该工厂将设置个人计算机生产线,生产以美国市场为目标的Think自主品牌笔记本计算机、台式计算机、平板计算机、工程工作站和服务器,料明年将投入营运。联想暂时没有提供实际投资金额预测,但网上传言联想最初会投资数百万美元,且随后将逐步扩大其投资的规模。

 据悉,联想是全球第二大个人计算机厂商,惟按出货量,集团于美国的市占率仅为8.4%。我们相信,透过在美国建设个人计算机生产线,集团将可为北美区顾客提供更高附加值的个人计算机相关服务,有利市场渗透以及进一步抢夺主要对手戴尔及惠普等于美国的市占率,因此料是项投资将对联想的中长线发展有利。

World Precision: Reverting to HOLD (Limtan)


WORLD PRECISION
- Our upgrade of World Precision(38 cents, unchanged) to BUY on 13 Sept’12 (when stock was at 37 cents) now looks premature and we are reverting to
HOLD again as we understand that
a) management’s previous expectation of a pick-up in business momentum in 2H’12 (after the government’s stimulus measures announced in 1H2012) is unlikely to
materialize due to the continued flat order outlook as their customers continue to remain cautious both on the domestic as well as export markets;

b) the company has started to face increased competitive pressure from a close competitor as this competitor is in a process of preparing to go public in Hong Kong/China in 1H2013, and is thus attempting to gain as much market share as possible currently.

Transport & Logistic - Seasonally busier in 4Q

We are maintaining our NEUTRAL recommendation for the Transportation sector as we do not expect any earnings and news surprises in 4Q12. Despite the concern on higher fuel cost in 4Q12, the airlines are well prepared to absorb the hikes this round as at least 15% of their fuel consumptions have been hedged at more attractive prices. We expect that the Aviation sector will benefit from the upcoming Budget 2013 through government's incentives and support in promoting the Malaysian tourism sector. Our top picks for the sector are AirAsia (OP; TP RM: 3.66) and MAHB (OP; TP RM: 6.45) where investors could capitalise on lower entry prices currently coupled with the potential benefits from the upcoming Budget 2013. We are not bullish on the Shipping sector as we believe that its potential strong earnings performance in 4Q12 could have factored into our expectations. That said, the sector will be defensive in the near term as we see its risks to be well capped at this juncture. The sector is also seen as having less 'elections' risk as compared to the other sectors.    

Technology - Feeling the chills

Technology - Feeling the chills

We are downgrading our rating on the Technology sector to NEUTRAL from OVERWEIGHT. All the tech companies under our coverage recorded results that were below the street and our expectations. All the players are now wary about the outlook for 2HCY12 due to the global economic uncertainties and the slowdown in the consumer demand for electronic devices. In addition, we believe that the highly possible strengthening of Ringgit Malaysia against US Dollar over the next couple of months will have negative impacts on technology companies' earnings visibility. In conclusion, our top-down analysis points to a negative outlook for the sector in 4Q12. Post-2QCY12 results, we had revised down most of our earnings for the tech companies and downgraded their TPs (target prices) as well.  As this juncture, we have OUTPERFORM calls on MPI (TP: RM3.10) and Notion (TP: RM1.50), and MARKET PERFORM calls on Unisem (TP: RM1.32), SAM Engineering (TP: RM2.80), JCY (TP: RM0.85) and Kelington (TP: RM0.53).

Drop in prices drags down S'pore palm oil players (AM)


Drop in prices drags down S'pore palm oil players
Palm oil stocks plunged yesterday as the market reacted to a fall in palm oil prices on Tuesday - the biggest daily drop in three years.

Indonesian firm First Resources and the world's second-largest oil palm grower Golden Agri-Resources gave up 5.6 per cent and 3.1 per cent to reach $1.94 and 64 cents respectively.

Palm oil prices dropped to their lowest level since October 2008 on Tuesday, on the back of weaker Malaysian palm export data for September and concerns over strong supply in the short term.

Sunway - Clear earnings outlook but lacks catalysts


Sunway -
Price Target : 2.60
Last Price : 2.27
Clear earnings outlook but lacks catalysts

- We reiterate our HOLD recommendation on Sunway Bhd (Sunway), with our fair value kept at RM2.60/share ' based on a 25% discount to our sum-of-parts value of RM3.50/share. This follows a company visit.

- The visit has not changed our view of the company. While there is deep value and clear earnings visibility ' (1) currently trading at 8x FY13F earnings and attractive 35% discount to its sum-of-parts value, (2) strong unbilled sales and construction order book of close to RM6bil ' the company lacks re-rating catalysts in the near to medium term.

Hai-O Enterprise - Recovery Underway


Hai-O Enterprise -
Price Target : 2.16
Last Price : 2.03
Recovery Underway

We  gather from  our visit  to  Hai-O  last  week  that  its  MLM  division  is  on  track  for recovery, mainly driven by  an improved marketing strategy and a more balanced product  mix.  With  its  new  tie-up  in  bamboo  salt  distribution,  the  potentialresumption of bird's nest exports and its Chinese medical centre coming  on-stream,  the  company  may  be  poised  for  strong  expansion.  Maintain  NEUTRAL, with a FV of RM2.16, based on a 12x FY13 EPS.

MLM  bounces  back.  As  we  highlighted  in  our  previous  updates  on  Hai-O,  the  multi-level marketing (MLM) division picked up gradually in the last financial year. The better FY12 core net profit was boosted by the encouraging 7.2% y-o-y earnings growth from the  MLM  division,  backed  by  aggressive  strategies  to  recruit  new  members  and distributors.

Suntec REIT: Firing On All Cylinders (UOBKH)


Suntec REIT:
Share Price S$1.49
Target Price S$1.67
Firing On All Cylinders

What’s New
• Resilient office rentals in the Suntec area. Jones Lang Lasalle reported that office rentals in Marina Centre (including Suntec City, Millenia and Centennial Towers) have held steady at S$9.15psf pm in 3Q12 but that in the Marina Bay area fell 4.4% qoq to S$10.75psf pm.

• Supported by full occupancies. Office demand in the Marina Centre and Suntec area was supported by occupancies of 99.4% in 3Q12. However, occupancy remained weak at 83% in the Marina Bay area due to the completion of new buildings, such as the Marina Bay Financial Centre Tower 3, which was about 70% pre-committed.

Nam Cheong: A Steady Ship Will Stay Its Course (UOBKH)

Nam Cheong
Share Price S$0.205
Target Price S$0.30
A Steady Ship Will Stay Its Course

We hosted a non-deal roadshow for Nam Cheong on 2 October in Kuala Lumpur. Management highlighted the key success factors behind NamCheong’s build-to-stock business model, and also plans to expand regional market share as a new OSV cycle unfolds. Maintain BUY with potential catalysts from strong vessel sales and rising dividend payout.

What’s New
• We hosted a non-deal roadshow for Nam Cheong on 2 October in Kuala Lumpur.

Shipping Sector : BDI drown in sea of red (MIDF)


Shipping Sector
BDI drown in sea of red
Maintain NEGATIVE

HIGHLIGHTS
The Baltic Dry Index (BDI), the freight rate for carrying dry bulk commodities failed to post a significant rebound despite an increase in Capesize rate, buoyed by China government’s USD158b railway building plans. The YTD index (as at 3rd October) fell by 69.4%yoy against 2010 and shrank by 60.1% against 2011. We view the stimulus plans are unlikely to cause a sudden surge in iron ore imports and also demand for Capesize vessels. However, we believe demand for iron ore should start gaining momentum at a gradual pace in 2013. Meanwhile, we expect the drybulk shipping will continued to be weighed down by excessive tonnage supply and slower economic activities in the near term.

Dry Bulk Shipping
• The price of iron ore at Tianjin Port jumped +17.1%mom to USD104pmt (see Figure 2) in September 2012, spurred by the China’s approval of RMB1 trillion for railway infrastructure projects. The Capesize index, one of key components in BDI, experienced a short rally and gained +37.1%mom to 1,621 points as at 28 September 2012 (see figure 3). Nevertheless, we opine that the hike in Capesize rate is only temporary given that iron ore inventory in China is still at elevated level (see figure 2) and the steel producers are unlikely to stockpile heavily. The Supramax and Handysize indices remained sluggish with no sign of improvement. The Panamax vessels, typically transporting 60,000-70,000 tonnes of grains or coal, slid its 3 year lowest at 418 points (as at 27 September 2012). The dramatic fall was due to the cut down in global grain cargoes which was severely affected by the bad weather in the US. We expect no significant improvement in BDI for the remaining of 2012.

• On the supply side, total deliveries for dry bulk segment should reach 115-120m dwt by end 2012 (source: Platou shipbroker report); while scrapping is estimated at 35m dwt. This represents 14%yoy net gain in tonnage supply, outpacing this year’s demand growth of 6%yoy. Estimates are that the 2013 deliveries will be around 55-60m dwt, while scrapping is about 30-35m dwt, depicting moderate fleet growth in 2013. As at end of September 2012, the orderbook stood at 17.7% (see figure 4) from the global existing supply of 667.2m dwt, a significant drop from the past three years but is still above the normal range of 10%.

Tanker Shipping
• In line with our view, the tanker market crashed in 3Q12 due to heavy crude oil stockpiling activities in 2Q12, ahead of the export ban imposed on Iran. The average monthly spot rate for Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) slumped to its lowest for this year at USD3,800/day in August due to inactive oil trades in the market. The Aframax rate held steadily throughout this year, YTD is USD15k per day. But this is not the case for Suezmax, which fell substantially by 78.7% to USD5k per day over the last four months. It was due to disproportional Suezmax fleet growth at 9%yoy against the overall tanker fleet growth of 6.0%yoy.

• Meanwhile, tanker rate is still plagued by the supply glut, exacerbated by slower global crude oil consumption and ramping up of US domestic oil production which reduced the need for crude oil import. Nevertheless, we see a small uptick in tanker rate as at end of September. We expect seasonal adjustment for the tanker rate due to surging oil demand during the winter season.

Recommendations:
MISC (Maintain BUY, TP: RM5.76)
• The tanker market remains weak and the VLCC rate crashed in 3Q12. We suspect this might widen the operating loss of MISC’s Petroleum segment in 3Q12. However, the extended losses will be partially hedged by the outperformance in others segments like LNG and offshore business. Since the share price is still trading 2 standard deviation below its historical P/BV (0.92x P/BV as at 3 October 2012), we opine it is an attractive price entry level to accumulate for long term. Hence, we maintain our BUY recommendations on MISC with unchanged TP of RM5.76.

Maybulk (Maintain NEUTRAL, TP: RM1.68)
• The dry bulk market remains challenging due to unresolved overcapacity. We expect core earnings of Maybulk, which is circa 85% derived from the dry bulk shipping will not be spared from the current market conditions. Hence, we believe Maybulk’s earnings will be supported by its associate i.e. POSH group companies, which saw continual high demand in offshore support business. Meanwhile, Maybulk is busy acquiring vessels, taking advantage of the cheap market value of the vessels. It is to position itself for potential expansion. We reiterate our NEUTRAL stance with unchanged TP of RM1.68 given its share price has already reflected the fundamental value and its strong net cash position of 16.6sen per share.



Source/Extract/Excerpts/来源/转贴/摘录:MIDF-Research
Publish date: 04/10/12

Perennial China Retail Trust: Diversifying portfolio (DBSV)


Perennial China Retail Trust
BUY S$0.51
Price Target : 12-Month S$ 0.84 (Prev S$ 0.83)
Diversifying portfolio

• Diversifies into prime Tongzhou development
• 1ct accretion to RNAV
• Maintain Buy with TP of $0.84

Diversifying into Beijing. PCRT announced it is taking a stake in a joint venture to develop an integrated development on 3 plots of adjoining land in Tongzhou, Beijing. The other partners in the consortium are Perennial Real Estate Hldgs (PREH), Shun Tak, Breadtalk, Mr Ron Sim and Mr Ronald Ooi. The consortium will hold a 70% share in the project. The local partner is Beijing Mei Rong Jia, a subsidiary of Beijing Meisheng Real Estate Devt. Which will own 30% of the development. PCRT's effective stake in the project is 10%, PREH 24%, Shun Tak (24%), Breadtalk (4%) and Ron Sim and Ronald Ooi a total of 8%. This move will enable PCRT to enjoy greater geographical diversification.

Tiger Airways: Expect another year of losses (Phillip)


Tiger Airways
Target Price (SGD) 0.45
- Previous Target Price (SGD) 0.55
Closing Price (SGD) 0.77
Expect another year of losses

Tiger Airways is a low cost carrier based in Singapore and Australia. The Group aims to grow its footprint through strategic joint ventures across Asia-Pacific. Tiger Airways intends to grow its fleet size to 68 by the end of 2015.

 Tiger Airways Singapore transits to Terminal 2
 Collaboration with Scoot a positive
 Budget airfares declined by 11.8% in the quarter
 Market is overly focused on operational turnaround at Tiger Australia
 Downgrade to Sell with revised TP of S$0.45

What is the news?
Following the closure of Budget Terminal, Tiger Airways Singapore recently began operations at Changi Airport’s Terminal 2. With the common operating terminal, Tiger Airways Singapore and Scoot signed an agreement for a partnership that would see both airlines offer joint itineraries. Separately, budget airfares in Australia declined by 11.8%yy in the quarter ending Sep 2012.

Fare wars, rising capacity squeeze Asian airlines

Fare wars, rising capacity squeeze Asian airlines
By Ven Sreenivasan,  The Business Times  |  Wed, Oct 3 2012
SIA vulnerable to competition from new carriers and Asia-Pacific hubs.


SINGAPORE - Cut-throat price competition, a widening mismatch between capacity and demand, and slowdowns in the huge China and India markets are eroding yields, pricing power and margins of Asian carriers.

More worrying is the fact that ticket prices for premium seats - which boost yields and account for up to half the incomes of many Asian full-service airlines - have fallen by some 5 per cent this year.

Bloomberg Industries' Princeton-based senior analyst George Ferguson reckons Singapore Airlines could be one of the worst impacted by the increasing competition and price war in the commercial aviation sector.

Multi-Purpose Holdings unlocking more value


Multi-Purpose Holdings unlocking more value
In The Edge Financial Daily Today 2012
Written by theedgemalaysia.com  

Multi-Purpose Holdings Bhd
(Oct 3, RM3.55)
Maintain buy with a target price of RM4.20: We understand the listing of MPHB Capital could be delayed from mid- to end-December this year, perhaps even to the first quarter (1Q) of 2013, due to the lengthy regulatory vetting process.

However, the demerger and restructuring of MPHB’s non-core businesses is on track, with the first round of submissions for approval sent to the various regulatory authorities (Bank Negara Malaysia, Securities Commission, Bursa Malaysia). The EGM will be held in 4Q (most likely end-November).

Tiger Airways CEO: To Lease 5 More Jets To Mandala Airlines By March

03 OCTOBER 2012
Tiger Airways CEO: To Lease 5 More Jets To Mandala Airlines By March
By Dow Jones Newswires

Tiger Airways Holdings is scaling up its operations in Indonesia by leasing five additional Airbus A320 jets by March to its local associate PT Mandala Airlines, in a modest move to tap the rapidly growing demand for air travel in the Southeast Asian nation.

Tiger, which owns a 33 percent stake in Mandala, is planning to lease the additional aircraft just months after Mandala resumed flights in April this year following a restructuring exercise. Tiger has currently leased three single aisle jets to the carrier.

“The Indonesian market is a big market and we don’t think three (aircraft) is the right scale and that’s why we are targeting for these five to go in so that we at least have eight in Indonesia initially and continue to see where the opportunities are to grow,” Koay Peng Yen, Tiger’s group chief executive, told Dow Jones in an interview on Tuesday.

曾淵滄專欄 05.10.12: 炒落後要見好即收


曾淵滄專欄: 炒落後要見好即收 - 曾淵滄

恒指在長假後一連兩天皆出現反覆,最後總算以微升收市,不過,市場焦點則放在二線H股之上,一些運動用品股、玻璃股、造紙股的表現皆不錯,升幅頗大,這是因為有大行在唱好、炒落後,炒落後要見好就收,因為中國的消費市場仍未復蘇,而且這類股在去年曾經熱炒過,蟹貨很多,上升動力有限。

中國人的消費力在下降,十一黃金周來港的消費少了,不過,來港消費少的另一個原因,可能與深圳海關近日嚴打水貨客有關,大家只知道上水搬運益力多、奶粉的人是水貨客,實際上,在廣東道名店前排隊者,也有不少是水貨客,真富豪怎麼會在豪花數十萬元買名貴手袋後,到快餐店吃數十元的晚餐?

中國人消費力下降,連澳門賭業也受累,9月份澳門博彩收入按月計算比8月份少8.69%,幸好,按年計算比去年同月增長12.3%。

高估旅客人數 零售黃金周恐玩完

高估旅客人數 零售黃金周恐玩完


【本報訊】黃金周已過了三分二,業界預料很可能是04年擴大自由行以來,表現最差的黃金周。零售管理協會主席麥瑞琼形容,最後銷售數字「就算唔跌」,都不可能有大增長:「最多只會升6%至8%。」她更警告,香港零售業有機會要整固,「硬着陸定軟着陸?唔敢講。」

根據入境處公佈的數據,由9月29日至10月3日這五日期間,內地旅客入境數目累計為60萬左右,較早前旅遊業界估計接近100萬的目標,亦有很大段距離。

麥瑞琼表示,有百貨公司、名牌衫零售商在黃金周的首3日,銷售是按年錄得倒退,連餐飲業都指生意比想像中要差。

指QE3僅短期利好 關鍵中國


指QE3僅短期利好 關鍵中國
2012年10月5日
【明報專訊】聯儲局在9月初推出第三輪貨幣寬鬆政策(QE3),港股隨即為之一振,恒指重上兩萬點大關。不過,施羅德香港基金經理夏德信(Toby Hudson)及亨德森中國基金經理沈昱均認為,QE3只屬短期利好,股市今後仍由中國實體經濟回穩的步伐主導。

夏德信認為,雖然美國推出了QE3,未來市場依然面臨持續性波動,需要提高警惕。其中,即將到來的美國大選、中國新舊政府權力交接,都是左右市場表現的重要因素。「至於歐洲,如果要達成全區共識、找到解決問題的可持續方案,還要作出非常困難的政治決定,此後的政策結果、市場反應都還有很多不確定性。」

另外,隨中國經濟轉弱,不少上市公司中期盈利遜色、運營成本高企、毛利率受壓,下半年業績良莠不齊仍是影響股價表現的未知之數。「直至目前,投資者對股票市場仍存有較強的避險心態,大市未來的持續波動以及不確定性難免,需要做好準備。」

績優四基金看好內需


績優四基金看好內需
市波動 依然「有寶可尋」
2012年10月5日
【明報專訊】中國經濟內憂外患,港股隨之在波動中前行,對投資者的揀股眼光實為一番考驗。本報近期採訪了4位今年表現名列前茅的基金經理,請他們談談未來的投資策略,幾位均表示,港股在不確定性之中依然「有寶可尋」。其中,具內需概念的中國消費板塊獲得一致追捧,成為第4季精選。另一類被看好的股份為本地地產股。

大市波動之中,許守豐(Nicholas Koh)管理下的瀚亞投資香港股票基金憑藉「從下而上」的選股策略跑出,年內回報達到20.4%,在晨星香港股票基金類別中位列第二,跑贏恒指7個百分點。

红筹国企/窝轮:中海集运买盘增可跟进


红筹国企/窝轮:中海集运买盘增可跟进
http://paper.wenweipo.com   [2012-10-05]    
张怡
 美国11月期油隔晚跌4%,并失守每桶90美元关口,而观乎昨日表现依然无太大起色。油价受压,则成为一众航空及航运股借势回勇的借口,当中包括国航(0753)和南方航空(1055)均涨逾4%。

 航运股的中海集运(2866)昨日也告反覆向好,并以近全日高位的1.63元报收,升0.06元,升幅3.82%,成交较周三大增逾2倍至6,159万股,该股买盘动力增强,料也将有利其反弹进一步延续。中海集运上半年亏损达12.8亿元人民币,内地7、8月份外贸数据持续令人失望,但管理层于9月业绩记者会上,却向市场派定心丸,预料运费可于下半年改善,并指出,市场竞争趋向理性,相信在下半年旺季可持续提高运费。

美林:内地转向休闲消费

美林:内地转向休闲消费
http://paper.wenweipo.com   [2012-10-05]      
 香港文汇报讯  香港不亮内地亮,说的是黄金周对股份的效应。虽然迎来史上最长的十一黄金周,但本地零售股表现一般,反而是之前「衰到贴地」的内地体育休闲用品类股,在黄金周中绝地大反弹,其中最霉的李宁(2331),终一吐乌气,劲弹8.88%,收报4.66元;其他同行普遍都有不俗升幅,如特步国际(1368)升10.58%,安踏体育(2020)升8.29%,匹克体育(1968)亦升8.21%。

黄金周首4天景点丁财两旺
 据路透社昨引述投行美银美林的报告称,尽管中国经济增长有所放慢,但今年国庆黄金周首4日的主要景点旅客人次及相关消费额均按年增加逾两成,增速较过去两年为快,反映市场担心中国经济「硬着陆」有点过虑;报告并认为,内地的消费模式已转向休闲方面,是新的消费需求来源。

花旗指A股值吸納


花旗指A股值吸納
【本報記者謝子豪報道】內地股市雖然在長假期前出現顯著反彈,但仍未見扭轉弱勢。不過,國際券商亦開始加入唱好行列。在上周滬綜指跌至兩千點關口時,內地報章已大唱內股市的市值吸引。而花旗銀行昨亦加入,認為內地股市的回報率有升值空間。

花旗表示,中國股市今年以來已經上漲5%,相比較全球其他地區市場提供的兩位數的回報率,漲幅令人失望,但其回報率有望進一步增加。

現時中國股市已經消化大量的利空消息,估值已經降至金融危機後的低點,市帳率為1.5倍,市盈率不足10倍,對比美國股市的估值,卻已經逼近區間高端。該行又指出,中國股市的估值即將回升,不過過程可能不會一帆風順,因為受經濟增長減速影響,投資者在重新調整其投資組合。

There's money in recycling

There's money in recycling
by Tan Chin Keong 04:45 AM Oct 05, 2012
When real estate investment trusts (REITs) in Singapore need capital for an asset acquisition or expansion, they normally turn to the equity market to raise funds through a secondary share placement or a rights issue. For this reason, REITs have earned the reputation for asking back what they have given to shareholders.

REITs are highly sought-after investments because they generate high dividends. For their continued sustainability, REITs need to be generous with these dividends. To qualify for their tax-transparent status, Singapore REITs have to disburse at least 90 per cent of their distributable earnings to shareholders. While this makes them a reliable source of income, the downside is that REITs hardly retain any of their earnings for future capital expenditures, so they - especially those with high levels of debt - tap the equity market. This in turn dampens their share prices.

東亞再遭非執董拋售


東亞再遭非執董拋售


聯交所資料顯示,東亞銀行(00023)非執行董事邱繼炳,繼八月及九月多次減持股份後,於九月二十八日及十月三日,連續兩個交易日在場內減持東亞21.04萬股,每股平均價介乎29.16至29.237元,套現六百多萬元,持好倉降至0.06%。東亞股價昨逆市跌1%。連同之前的減持,邱氏合共套現超過1.1億元。東亞於八月份公布中期業績後,多家券商指該行下半年面對多項負面因素,建議沽售其股份,或予以「跑輸大市」的評級。

結好控股(00064)早前簽訂意向書擬出售澳門氹仔酒店及土地資產,現宣布買賣雙方並無就可能出售事項訂立任何正式買賣協議,及雙方並無進一步延長獨家期間,意向書已於十月三日自動失效。

SUN勢力:中銀香港攻守兼備

SUN勢力:中銀香港攻守兼備


市場暫時缺乏方向,港股昨日好淡爭持,收市微升19點,銀行股表現突出,中銀香港(02388)創五十二周新高。集團作為本港離岸人民幣獨家結算行,業務穩健,加上息率不俗,可候回吐吸納。

中銀截至六月底止半年純利按年倒退6.3%,至112.4億元,但若剔除雷曼迷債回撥的因素,則按年升16.2%,並創上市後中期純利新高。期內,淨息差按年升43個基點,而淨利息收入則按年增逾兩成至126.1億元。瑞信最近發表報告,指由於內地減息,削弱了本地銀行在承做內地相關貸款的優勢,故在離岸人民幣業務發展佔先的中銀仍為首選。

該股現價息率近5厘,較不少房託基金為高,加上業務增長穩定,可謂攻守兼備。走勢上,股價昨日雖然破位,惟已連續出現三支陰燭,短線或有回吐,可待回落至24.2元水平吸納,阻力26.6元。

港零售有排捱


港零售有排捱

政府公布的八月份零售數據顯示,在珠寶鐘錶及名貴禮物銷售貨值錄得按年及按月跌幅下,連深受「水貨客」喜愛的藥物及化妝品貨值亦罕有地較七月跌5.8%,超市貨品貨值亦僅按月升2%,反映本港零售市場正出現「唔湯唔水」的情況。分析指,現時中港矛盾加深,不排除本港零售「仲有排捱」,甚至連低價產品的銷售亦無以為繼。

黃金周表現不寄厚望

政府昨日公布,八月零售總銷貨價值為358億元,按年僅升4.5%,而總銷貨數量則升3.2%,再度遜預期。香港零售管理協會主席麥瑞琼對數據感到震驚,尤其是在內地來港遊客同月升近三成,零售數據卻如此差,她料本港今年「十.一」黃金周最多僅6至8%增長,有機會是○四年開放個人遊以來最差。

各国经济放缓 半导体领域续低迷

各国经济放缓 半导体领域续低迷
(吉隆坡4日讯)各国经济欲振乏力,半导体销售持续低迷,达证券维持半导体领域「减持」评级。

半导体工业协会(SIA)数据显示,8月份全球半导体销售连续14个月呈跌,按月仅微升0.1%,按年跌3.16%。

年初至今跌幅,收窄至4.6%,稍低于首7个月的4.7%跌幅。

全球8月份半导体销量皆低迷不振,欧洲销量跌9.8%、美国收窄8.6%、亚太区与日本各萎缩0.7%及0.3%。

达证券分析员认为,去年8月至10月因圣诞节及年末假期需求,拉高去年同期半导体出货量,造成了高基数。

新世界冀返三甲 大行齊撐

新世界冀返三甲 大行齊撐


新世界發展(00017)第三代管理層、執行董事兼聯席總經理鄭志剛,近日與里昂及美銀美林分析員會面時表示,父親鄭家純主要負責集團發展大方向,自己則集中日常運作,又披露集團發展目標及策略,包括要重返本港發展商三甲位置等。

里昂及美銀美林看好新世界發展前景,重申「買入」投資評級,予目標價13.75及14元。新世界昨升2.62%,收12.5元,創五十二周新高。

港項目銷售目標150億

美銀美林引述鄭志剛表示,以純利及銷售額計算,集團有遠景要返回本港三大發展商位置。未來數年集團首要任務,是要縮短發展項目周期,確保在短時間內可推出多個新盤。

马骏:中国经济在2013年中将出现强劲反弹

内地9月份非制造业PMI值创年内最低


伯南克为美联储政策辩护 称经济将继续扩张


Roubini: `Fiscal Bump' Could Drag 2013 GDP to 0.5%

Roubini: 'Bigger to Fail' Banks Must Be Split Up

Roubini: Could France Be Next to Fall?

Big Banks' Return on Equity? Not So Much

Can Apple Dominate With a Smaller Tablet?

Apple's Huge Cash Pile


Mini iPad, Big Mistake?


Gross: US Addicted to Budgetary Crystal Meth


Bill Gross, Co-CIO, founder & managing director at PIMCO, outlines America's severe spending addiction in his latest investment outlook.

Thursday, October 4, 2012

一举衝上1662点高峰 马股后市企稳


吉隆坡4日讯)儘管成交量不大,但马股週四仍以1662.14点创下新高,市场人士相信马股走势短期內可维持在高水平。

富时大马综合指数週四以全天最低1649.66点开跑,在早盘即突破在9月3日创下的最高1655.49点,在1660点水平窄幅波动。午盘一度触及1662.14点盘中新高,最后以1661.47点闭市,企稳在1660点水平,改写盘中和闭市新高,全日一共上升11.72点或0.71%。同时,令吉亦上升0.245%,至1美元兑3.0538令吉。

主要带动马股上涨的成份股有森那美(SIME,4197,主板贸服股)、国家能源(TENAGA,5347,主板贸服股)、联昌国际(CIMB,1023,主板金融股)、国油气体(PETGAS,6033,主板工业股)、吉隆甲洞(KLK,2445,主板种植股)等。

Drop in CPO futures triggers selldown in plantation counters


Drop in CPO futures triggers selldown in plantation counters
In The Edge Financial Daily Today 2012
Written by theedgemalaysia.com  
Thursday, 04 October 2012 11:59

KUALA LUMPUR: Plantation stocks took a beating yesterday, sending the KL Plantation Index down by 2.17% to close at 8,080.88 points, as investors reacted to the sharp drop in crude palm oil (CPO) futures the day before.

The biggest losers included Kuala Lumpur Kepong Bhd which fell 5.17% to RM20.90, Genting Plantations Bhd (-3.8% to RM9.20), IJM Plantations Bhd (-3.88% to RM3.22) and Kulim Bhd which fell 2.64% to RM4.93.

Singapore: Recession and competitiveness

Singapore: Recession and competitiveness
In The Edge Financial Daily Today 2012
Written by DBS Group Research  
Thursday, 04 October 2012 12:17

Singapore likely entered a technical recession (two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth) in the third quarter. Apart from the external headwinds, falling competitiveness from a tight exchange rate policy and foreign labour policy in recent years are also responsible for the weak economy. Hence, policies may turn more accommodative going forward.

We expect the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) to ease its exchange rate policy at the upcoming policy review this month. Likewise, there is significant room to unwind the earlier hikes in foreign workers’ levies to provide some breathing space for companies amid the dire economic conditions.

購ING泰馬 月中揭盅友邦股價曾創新高

購ING泰馬 月中揭盅友邦股價曾創新高
友邦保險(01299)收購活動正進行得如火如荼,外電引述消息指,友邦擬斥18億美元(約140.4億港元)收購ING泰國及馬來西亞業務,料最快於十月中公布交易。受消息帶動,昨早股價一度高見29.95元,創下上市以來新高。

洽購傳領先同業
繼成功收購斯里蘭卡保險商Aviva NDB的92.3%股權後,市場預期友邦保險將展開一輪購併行動,市傳友邦一直為爭奪ING泰國及馬來西亞保險業務的領先者。

ING拆售亞洲保險業務交易,惟一直未成事,彭博社引述消息指出,友邦有意以18億美元收購ING泰國及馬來西亞業務,雙方正就最終條件談判,最快可望於十月中公布。若消息一旦屬實,這將是友邦上市以來涉額最大的收購。受消息刺激,友邦昨日早段股價創新高,高見29.95元,稍後升幅放緩,收報29.55元,升2.25%。

Malaysia Aiming for Budget Surplus, Says PM Najib Razak

Malaysia Aiming for Budget Surplus, Says PM Najib Razak
Published: Wednesday, 3 Oct 2012 | 8:46 PM ET Text Size
By: Liza Tan

Malaysia is on track to reach its goal of reducing the budget deficit to 3 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) by 2015, said the Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak.

"Beyond that, I would like for us to achieve a budget surplus, if possible," Najib said in an interview with CNBC's Martin Soong in Kuala Lumpur on Wednesday.

However, he stopped short of making that a firm target, saying that he first wants to see how the next three years pan out.

新股定價3令吉‧籌46億‧ASTRO超額認購近30倍

新股定價3令吉‧籌46億‧ASTRO超額認購近30倍
Created 10/04/2012 - 17:44

(吉隆坡4日訊)大馬富豪丹斯里阿南達旗下ASTRO公司的首次公開售股(IPO)獲得機構投資者熱烈扯購,取得近30倍超額認購,並將股票定價於高端的3令吉。

該公司擇定本月19日重新上市,首發股標價介於2令吉70仙至3令吉,在定價於3令吉後,整個上市計劃預計籌措46億令吉(約15億美元),成為大馬以至東南亞第三大IPO。

根據該公司文告,此項IPO獲機構投資者的踴躍認購,超額認購近30倍。資料顯示,機構投資者獲分配12億5843萬5千股。

種植股反攻‧短期風險高‧馬股寫1661點歷史新高


種植股反攻‧短期風險高‧馬股寫1661點歷史新高
Created 10/04/2012 - 17:45

(吉隆坡4日訊)種植股上演絕地反攻,加上一些重量級成份股紛紛騰漲,激勵馬股今日一連扣下1650和1660點兩大關,強勢譜寫歷史新高,分析員認為,馬股近期扶盤氣息非常濃烈,若“扶盤手"繼續發力,上探1千700點“千古大關"非不可能,惟強調短期下行空間要比上揚空間大得多。

富時綜指今早以1649.66點開盤,微跌0.06點,過後隨昨日暴跌的種植股迎來扯購狂潮,綜指早盤走勢牛氣逼人,在開市90分鐘後宣告攻下1660點,午盤閉市漲9.46點,午盤開市後綜指穩企於1660點以上水平高居不下,最終以1661.47點收場,漲11.72點或0.71%。

Vanguard shift may weigh Singapore banks: DBS Vickers

Vanguard shift may weigh Singapore banks: DBS Vickers

The Singapore stocks most negatively affected by US mutual-fund giant Vanguard shifting to FTSE from MSCI as its benchmark provider are the banks as their FTSE weightings are lower, DBS Vickers says.

Keppel Corp. (BN4.SG) and SingTel (Z74.SG) will also be negatively affected, the house says. “Beneficiaries are stocks like CapitaCommercial Trust (C61U.SG), Venture Corp. (V03.SG), Singapore Post (S08.SG) and SMRT (S53.SG), which are FTSE component stocks but not included in MSCI Singapore Index.”

Standard Chartered says Temasek abstention not a criticism: Updated


Standard Chartered says Temasek abstention not a criticism: Updated
Standard Chartered Plc said Temasek Holdings Pte’s abstention from a vote to elect non-executive directors in May was not a judgment of the individuals or the bank’s strategy.

The Singapore investment company, Standard Chartered’s biggest shareholder, is uncomfortable with the London-based lender’s governance plan and is pushing it to appoint more independent directors, The Wall Street Journal reported today, citing an unidentified person. Jeffrey Fang, a Singapore-based spokesman for Temasek, declined to comment.

“Temasek have assured us that their abstention does not imply any criticism of the individuals concerned, nor Standard Chartered’s performance or strategy,” Doris Fan, a Hong Kong- based spokeswoman at Standard Chartered, said in an e-mail. “Temasek has voted in favor of all other resolutions at the AGM in May.”

Nam Cheong offers proven track record: UOB-KayHian

Nam Cheong offers proven track record: UOB-KayHian

UOB KayHian keeps Nam Cheong (N4E.SG) at Buy with $0.30 target, based on 9.7x 2013 P/E, above peers’ 7.0X long-term mean, on its dominant 50%-75% market share in a high-barrier-to-entry market.

The house hosted a non-deal roadshow and among key takeaways, cites its proven track record, achieving profitability every year since its 2007 build-to-stock business model adoption, selling all BTS vessels before completion even during the financial crisis.

Management says it focuses on shallow water, mass-market products, as shallow-water E&P capex tends to be more stable and predictable vs deep-water spending, UOB-KH notes. It adds, customers find the BTS model attractive as they can indicate vessel requirements without a cash deposit during early construction stages, acting as a form of financing.

Palm-oil stocks stabilise, But Phillip eyes more volatility


Palm-oil stocks stabilise, But Phillip eyes more volatility

Most Singapore-listed palm-oil plays stabilise after Wednesday’s sharp drops on CPO prices’ recent plunge. “For the long term, the outlook for CPO will still be stable,” says Lee Kok Joo, head of research at Phillip Securities, “but in the short term, there might still be some volatility.”

He notes CPO prices depend on a lot of factors, including the spread with soy oil. While the Malaysian commodity ministry’s plan to cut CPO export taxes to 8–10% from 23% currently may help CPO sentiment, most Singapore-listed plantation plays are Indonesia-focused.

Shift to equities from bonds to continue: Nomura

Shift to equities from bonds to continue: Nomura

With the QE3 candle lit, “the world continues to grope its way ‘out of the darkness’ pretty much in the equity- and risk-friendly fashion that we have been expecting since June,” Nomura says.

But it adds, for continued equity advances US construction needs to strengthen to boost monthly jobs data, resilient US credit conditions need to start translating into resurgent capex and China’s stimulus needs to start materialising.

It tips the US fiscal cliff as the major potential macro stumbling block. It upgrades the global consumer discretionary sector to Neutral from Underweight by shaving its Overweights in financials and techs, on firmer US housing and reflationary expectations after last month’s global monetary easing.

Myanmar to benefit from QE, China shifts: Nomura


Myanmar to benefit from QE, China shifts: Nomura

Frontier markets are potential beneficiaries of a liquidity-boosted global recovery, Nomura says, noting previous QE exercises provided notable support. Among frontier markets, it also tips Myanmar as among structural-rebalancing beneficiaries, positioned to benefit from China’s ongoing shift up the value-added curve and away from lower-value-added labor-intensive manufacturing activity.

“These ‘structural beneficiaries’ offer the most attractive Frontier thematic from the standpoint of bankable longer-term investable opportunity.” It adds, Myanmar also offers opportunities based on its political reform. “While Myanmar’s stock market remains primitive and practically off-limits to foreign investors, exposure can be obtained through Singapore-listed Yoma Strategic Holdings (Z59.SG) and Interra Resources (5GI.SG) (which respectively derive 98% and 57% of total revenues from Myanmar).”

多空一线:速远机构再探RM2.70

多空一线:速远机构再探RM2.70
Created 10/04/2012 - 12:48

速远机构(Zhulian,5131,主板消费产品股)于2012年10月3日闭市时反弹了。它于闭市时报2.56令吉,涨6仙或2.40%速远机构于10月3日间闭市时突破一道中期顶头阻力趋势线(B1:B2)上报收。它的60分鈡分时线平滑异同移动均线指标(MACD)于10月3日处于一道短期反弹走势中。

QE3 引进更多游资 银行业料跑出黑马


QE3 引进更多游资 银行业料跑出黑马
Created 10/04/2012 - 11:51
(吉隆坡3日讯)随着第三回合量化宽松政策(QE3)未来12个月将吸引更多游资流入新兴国家,而银行领域前几季业绩都取得不俗表现,券商预计会有数匹黑马出现,因而维持“增持”的投资评级。

肯南嘉投资研究分析员在第四季银行领域投资策略报告中、以“与廉价资金共舞”为第四季银行领域投资策略主题。

分析员指出,鉴于投资者争相投资不断升值的货币和回酬较高的资产,量化宽松政策推动下未来1年预计有更多游资流入新兴国家,特别是东协资本市场。

“我们相信,东协投资银行将是美国购债活动的主要受益者,归功套利交易增加、估值上修和市场资本化。”

低价激购兴经济效应高 原棕油每吨RM2400可期

低价激购兴经济效应高 原棕油每吨RM2400可期
Created 10/04/2012 - 07:55
(吉隆坡3日讯)尽管产量持续走高,但价格偏低将有助带动市场购兴和提高转为生物柴油的经济可行性,分析员因而估计原棕油(CPO)价可支撑在每吨2400令吉水平。

联昌国际投资研究分析员认为,原棕油期货价过去5周下挫25%,主要是市场对棕油库存量升高感到过分担心。

分析员说,9月份棕油出口数据趋弱和市场担心供应量继续走强也是原棕油价滑落的部分原因。

“大马的棕油产量可能会按月增加20%,Intertek和Societe Generale de Surveillance数据也显示出口按月走势平坦。”

OCBC cuts Golden Agri target price


OCBC Investment Research cut its target price for palm oil company Golden Agri-Resources to $0.76 from $0.81 and kept its ‘buy’ rating, citing a larger-than-expected drop in crude palm oil prices.

By 10:28 a.m, Golden Agri shares were down 0.8% to $0.63, and have dropped 11.9% since the start of the year, compared with the Straits Times Index’s 16.2% rise.

OCBC has cut its revenue and earnings forecasts for 2013 by 6.7% each for Golden Agri, as it lowers its crude palm oil price assumption to US$750 ($923)/tonne from US$950/tonne previously.

Maybank starts Hutchison Port at ‘buy’


Maybank Kim Eng initiated coverage of Hutchison Port Holdings Trust with a ‘buy’ rating and a target price of US$0.925 ($1.137), citing an attractive distribution yield, resilient earnings and growth potential.

Units of HPHT were up 1.3% at US$0.755. They have gained 21.8% so far this year, but are still down 21% since HPHT’s market debut in March 2011.

At current prices, HPHT offers a distribution yield of 8.4-9.1%, higher than most other real estate investment trusts and business trusts.

中鋼大馬 券商促短線買入

吉隆坡3日訊)中鋼大馬(CSCSTEL,5094, 主要板工業)謹慎看待下半年和明年首半年前景,但鑑于母公司中國鋼鐵公司(China Steel;簡稱中鋼公司)仍有意在大馬收購上游鋼鐵業者,因此為反映更低銷量和售價,券商下修未來兩個財年盈利預測,維持短線買入建議。

 興業證券研究指出,中鋼大馬預料下半年至明年首半年汽車銷售放緩,因消費者在等待政府削減車價的計劃而按兵不動。

 此外,由于美國和歐洲經濟顯疲態導致我國製造業出口下降,致使貢獻汽車與製造業的中鋼大馬的扁鋼產品,下降15%至20%。

聯想爭一哥 美設PC生產線


聯想爭一哥 美設PC生產線
聯想(00992)為爭奪個人電腦(PC)市場的一哥地位,再有新部署。集團宣布將在美國的北卡羅來納州設立首條美國的生產線,並搶先於死敵惠普(HP)、戴爾(Dell)及蘋果公司(Apple Inc),成為首家「回歸」美國生產的PC巨企。

聯想此舉除了是要強化本身於美國本土的形象外,一般估計亦與其希望爭取更多來自美國政府的訂單有關。

爭取美政府訂單
聯想昨日公布,新建的美國生產線,是位於聯想在北卡羅來納州的美國配送中心內,為配合明年的投產計劃,聯想將於年底前在美國新聘115個職位。主席兼行政總裁楊元慶指出,在美國設立生產線是由於集團對美國PC市場的實力及增長機會充滿信心,並指生產線日後將會生產Think系列的筆記本、台式PC、平板電腦、工作站及服務器等。

中國概念商品基金失寵


中國概念商品基金失寵
中國經濟放慢,原材料需求降溫,投資者急謀對策,部分選擇避過高度依賴中國需求支撐的商品,如基本金屬、棉花和大豆,部分選擇不受中國因素影響增長的商品,如美國天然氣市場,有些更索性撤出商品市場。

全球放水 油價勢受惠
從需求角度看,中國是全球工業物料和許多農產品的需求增長引擎,佔全球基本金屬消耗量42%;相反,中國在油市和金市影響力較小。DoubleLine Capital商品基金經理舍曼揚言,由中國需求拉動的商品大牛市已成過去,看淡基本金屬如銅和鉛,反觀油價料可受到各國央行寬鬆幣策和中東地緣政治因素支持。

部分投資者安全至上。巴克萊資料顯示,今年首七個月商品互惠基金流失近60億美元資金,與去年同期吸資78億美元大相逕庭;Brighton House Associates調查顯示,八月份只有2%受訪投資者有興趣買入中國商品基金,比率遠低過年初的15.4%。

基金變掛全球換貨

基金變掛全球換貨
美國最大互惠基金先鋒集團(Vanguard Group)宣布旗下22隻合共管理資產約5,370億美元(逾4.18萬億港元)的指數基金,棄用MSCI明晟指數(MSCI)為基準指數供應商。

市場憂慮基金業會出現「格價潮」,拖累MSCI股價繼周二在美收市狠挫26.83%,創○七年十一月上市以來最大跌幅後,周三回升5%。市場更憂慮先鋒重新建倉會作出大手調整買賣,波及本港上市股份。

先鋒擬明年一月落實過檔,指數互惠基金和交易所買賣基金(ETFs)均受影響,旗下6隻國際股票指數基金將採用富時(FTSE)基準指數,另外16隻美國股票及平衡基金將採用芝加哥大學證券價格研究中心開發的基準指數。

洽購ING大馬泰國業務


洽購ING大馬泰國業務
友邦獲高盛唱好
據彭博報道,友邦(1299)洽購荷蘭國際集團(ING)馬來西亞及泰國業務已進入最後階段,估值18億美元(折合約港幣155.09億元),低於早前所傳的20億美元。受此消息提振,友邦昨股價升2.25%,收報29.55元,創出上市新高。消息人士指出,由於談判尚在進行,不排除流產可能,若過程順利,最快將於10月中公布。
 

給予目標價34.5元
友邦近期大舉擴張,上周以1.09億美元收購斯里蘭卡保險公司Aviva NDB Insurance 92.3%股權,及NDB Aviva Wealth Management 83.9%股權。高盛認為,交易的短期財務效應輕微,但符合友邦長線策略,維持其確信買入評級。杰弗里斯亦授予友邦「買入」評級,指其代理表現強勁、分銷商能力強勁集中,且亞洲市場對人壽保險需求充足,給予目標價34.5元。
 

工行平保可追落後

工行平保可追落後
今日是「南丫島海難事件」的哀悼日,正午12時開始,各位可放下手頭上的工作為死難者默哀1分鐘。如無意外筆者在12時正,應在NOW財經台做收市訪問,監制也許有特別安排。

亞洲開發銀行(ADB)昨日發表研究報告,下調中國今明兩年經濟增長預期,今年將由8.5%下調至7.7%,而明年則由8.7%下調至8.1%。恒指對於有關消息作出負面反應,昨日早市的升幅化為烏有,早上被回收的熊仔死得怨恨。

內地股市在國慶假期休市,對港股影響輕微,「十八大」開會日期落實後,投機熱錢將可重回內地股份,A股反彈之勢頭亦會拉動香港上市的H股,各位讀者不妨留意。

聯想可續作中線持有


聯想可續作中線持有
內地股市上季以至今年表現「包尾」,不少投資者均寄望第四季能「振作」。由於「十八大」已定開會日期,市場亦更憧憬會有政策出台,故氣氛上稍見改善;不過,內地仍存有不少變數值得留意,有網站便列舉「4利好」及「5利空」因素。4利好包括:一、十八大開會日期已敲定;二、9月PMI略見起色;三、憧憬國慶後可能降準;四、證監會推動降低投資相關稅率。至於5利空則包括:一、國慶後恢復審批IPO;二、千億元解禁股將解禁;三、中歐貿易摩擦升溫;四、中日關係問題;五、企業第三季業績難樂觀。

除了以上變數外,筆者在假期中亦看到一篇有關內地「地方版」4萬億投資計劃的報道。原來,所謂地方版「4萬億」均存有不少「水份」。例如四川省在9月24日發布之《四川省重大投資項目名錄》,今明兩年共有2,242個項目繼續建設或計劃開工,總值達到3.67萬億元人民幣。

債王轟美放水如吸冰毒

債王轟美放水如吸冰毒

【本報綜合報道】雖然美國聯儲局上月中推出第三輪量寬措施(QE3)意圖刺激經濟,但「債王」格羅斯狠批美國現時財政狀況猶如癮君子,不再滿足於大麻及可卡因,轉吸食「預算冰毒」以尋求快感;若美國不積極處理債務問題,當地國債便不再是投資者的避險之選,下一個10年之前當地更會成為希臘翻版。

股債市恐「燒焦」
格羅斯在每月投資通訊中表示,美國必須處理現時面對的財政缺口,否則當地債務佔國內生產總值(GDP)將持續上升,而儲局則必須不斷印銀紙,引發通脹及美元貶值等問題,而國債及股市將會受牽連而「燒焦」,只有黃金及其他實際資產能夠避過一劫。

何車500: 中外運趁低收集 - 何車


何車500: 中外運趁低收集 - 何車


中國外運(598)上周五有兩手大手共826萬股(作價每股1元)成交,佔當日成交77%,十分少見。

中外運業務是在國內提供物流服務,包括貨運代理、快遞服務、船務代理、倉儲與碼頭服務等。2003年初以每股2.19元發售H股上市,2007年10月最高價5.70元,現價1.01元,掛牌9年潛水54%,其間H股指數大漲3.5倍。

Hutchison Port Hldgs Trust :The Port of Choice for Your Portfolio (KE)


Hutchison Port Hldgs Trust
BUY(new)
Share price: USD0.745
Target price: USD0.925 (new)
The Port of Choice for Your Portfolio

 Sustainable yield of 9%; initiate with BUY. Hutchison Port Holdings Trust (HPHT) is a business trust holding container port assets in Hong Kong and Yantian, providing stevedorage and other port services to global shipping lines. We initiate coverage of HPHT with a DDM-derived target price of USD0.925 and a BUY recommendation. A sustainable distribution yield of 8.4-9.1% p.a. is far too attractive to ignore, especially given HPHT’s earnings resilience and capacity for further growth.

Plantation: Take Some Profits (MIB)


Plantation
Take Some Profits

 CPO price bottomed? 3M CPO price has plunged 21% since mid-Sept (-38% from 2012‟s peak), a minor resemblance of 2008‟s steep price correction. But the current situation is different from 2008. We believe the present CPO price is oversold and has bottomed as global stock-to-usage ratio is low and price differential between palm oil and soybean oil (and rapeseed oil) is near 4-year high. However, CPO price needs to stay weak for 1-2 months to flush out excess supply as CPO production would peak in Oct. We are Neutral on a 12M view, short term cautious.

A repeat of 2008? We do not expect the present situation to mirror 2008‟s performance where CPO price plunged 67% (within 7 months) from its peak. Back then, global trade financing collapsed alongside other global commodity prices. Brent crude oil fell 75% to a low of USD36/bbl while it has stayed high at USD111/bbl now. Furthermore, the global 17 Oils and Fats stock-to-usage ratio was significantly higher in 2007/08 (11.6%) and 2008/09 (11.9%) periods, while supply is expected to be tight in 2012/13F (11.1%).

虎航总裁:在3月前将会出租多5架飞机给曼达拉航空


虎航总裁:在3月前将会出租多5架飞机给曼达拉航空
文: 道琼斯通讯社 (译:麦美莹) 2012年10月03日 道琼斯通讯社
虎航(Tiger Airways Holdings )正不断扩大其在印尼的业务,并将在明年3月前,出租多5架A320空中巴士给当地联营曼达拉航空(Mandala Airlines)。此举是为应付这个东南亚国家对航空旅游的需求迅速增长。

虎航拥有曼达拉航空的33%股权。曼达拉航空在进行重组后,于今年4月恢复飞行,而虎航计划出租更多飞机给它。虎航目前出租了3架单通道飞机给曼达拉航空。

虎航集团总裁郭炳炎在星期二接受道琼斯通讯社访谈时透露:“印尼的市场十分庞大。我们认为3架飞机实在不足以应付,因此,我们计划出租多5架飞机。在首个阶段,我们起码有8架飞机在印尼运作,并会留意新商机的出现。”

Shipping & Shipyards: The new normal (DBSV)


The new normal
• Supply glut could take a couple of years to be absorbed amid sub-par trade growth trends
• Container shipping may be earliest to turn but not seeing any near term peaks – maintain HOLD on NOL
• Shipyards will see the survival of the fittest - maintain BUY on Yangzijiang

Supply woes persist amid structural changes in trade flows. We attended the 11th Marine Money Asia Week conference held in Singapore last week, which featured around 300 participants from all sections of the shipping value chain. The general consensus from the conference seems to be that the sector could continue to be in the doldrums for another 2-3 years while excess supply is absorbed by the market. Container shipping is still poised to recover earliest, but volume growth rate expectations are now pegged to a new lower normal, and the boom years of the last 2 decades seem well past, both for containerized trade and bulk cargo, as the developed world continues to deleverage. Shipyards, unfortunately, will continue to face trying times.

Midas Holdings: This stock still has legs (CIMB)

Midas Holdings
Current S$0.43
Target S$0.63
This stock still has legs

Midas has re-rated recently but we still see price catalysts from high speed contract wins. CSR, China’s state owned locomotive manufacturer, expects high-speed orders by 4Q12 or 1Q13. Midas will be one of the key beneficiaries on such announcements.

Maintain Outperform. We roll forward to CY14 EPS, with our target now based on 15.5x (10% discount to its 5-year forward average; previously -0.5SD). Our target price increases accordingly. We change our valuation to account for potential ROE and growth normalisation. Stock catalysts are expected from order flows, while operational risks are contained.

Order outlook seems rosy
China’s National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has planned close to Rmb1tr of urban railway projects up until 2020. CSR is expecting high-speed contracts by 4Q12 or 1Q13. It typically takes 3-6 months before contracts tickle down to downstream players like Midas; this means that orders could come as early as 1Q13.

Sabana Shari’ah Compliant REIT: Factored in the yield-accretive acquisition (Phillip)


Sabana Shari’ah Compliant REIT
Target Price (SGD) 1.070
- Previous Target Price (SGD) 1.040
Closing Price (SGD) 1.145

Sabana REIT is a Singapore-based REIT with a mandate to invest in income-producing industrial real estate and real estate-related assets in Singapore and Asia with compliance to Shari’ah investment principles.
 Factored in the yield-accretive acquisition of 23 Serangoon North Avenue 5
 Maintain accumulate with revised target price of $1.07

What is the news?
Sabana REIT had concluded the acquisition of 23 Serangoon North Avenue 5 at S$61.0mn. The purchase was partially funded from the S$80.0mn Convertible Sukuk at a rate of 4.5%. Besides that, the additional Murabaha facilities of $258.6mn were refinanced in August at a lower interest rate of 4.1% relative to the existing all-in cost of 4.4%.

UOA Development - A 'defensive' developer


UOA Development -
Price Target : 2.30
Last Price : 1.63
A 'defensive' developer

UOA Development's (UOA) total GDV has increased to  RM15.0b from its IPO guidance of RM13.0b thanks to its new  projects at Jalan Ipoh and Kepong, which excludes the potential 15-20% upside to Bangsar South's remaining GDV of RM5.0b due to the area's run-up in capital values. The group is targeting RM3.1-3.2b of new launches (mainly 'affordable segments') over the next 12-18 months in highly sought-after locations. Cash proceeds from sale of its en bloc offices of RM298.0m means UOA can comfortably undertake Bangsar South's next growth phase, whilst ensuring it meets our expected FY12-13E net yields  of 7.6%-6.9%, higher than the sizeable M-REITs (4.5%-5.0%). No changes to our TP of RM2.30, based on 34%* discount to our FD SoP RNAV of RM3.46. Reiterate OUTPERFORM given investors' need for defensive havens.

Chip Eng Seng : Is 242 West Coast Highway a lemon?


Buys out partner in Perth joint venture, after it couldn't sell the units

3/10/2012 – Chip Eng Seng Corporation’s wholly-owned subsidiary, CEL Australia Pty Ltd (CELA), has increased its shareholding in 242 West Coast Highway Scarborough Pty Ltd from 75% to 100%.

This was a 50:50 joint venture between CELA and a company of property developer Mr John Crane.

On May 10, 2010, Chip Eng Seng Corporation announced that the JV had acquired a parcel of land approximating 1.02 hectare (10,165 sqm) at 242 West Coast Highway, in the beachfront district of Scarborough, in Perth, Western Australia for A$20 mln.

Back then, the JV proposed to redevelop the land into three 12-storey blocks, with about 150 residential apartments, 80 serviced apartments, 9 townhouses, commercial offices, retail shops and parking facilities.

Warren E. Buffett(沃伦•巴菲特)
Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful
别人贪婪时我恐惧, 别人恐惧时我贪婪
投资只需学好两门课: 一,是如何给企业估值,二,是如何看待股市波动
吉姆·罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)
“错过时机”胜于“搞错对象”:不会全军覆没!”
做自己熟悉的事,等到发现大好机会才投钱下去

乔治·索罗斯(George Soros)

“犯错误并没有什么好羞耻的,只有知错不改才是耻辱。”

如果操作过量,即使对市场判断正确,仍会一败涂地。

李驰(中国巴菲特)
高估期间, 卖对, 不卖也对, 买是错的。
低估期间, 买对, 不买也是对, 卖是错的。

Tan Teng Boo


There’s no such thing as defensive stocks.Every stock can be defensive depending on what price you pay for it and what value you get,
冷眼(冯时能)投资概念
“买股票就是买公司的股份,买股份就是与陌生人合股做生意”。
合股做生意,则公司股份的业绩高于一切,而股票的价值决定于盈利。
价值是本,价格是末,故公司比股市重要百倍。
曹仁超-香港股神/港股明灯
1.有智慧,不如趁势
2.止损不止盈
成功者所以成功,是因为不怕失败!失败者所以失败,是失败后不再尝试!
曾淵滄-散户明灯
每逢灾难就是机会,而是在灾难发生时贱价买股票,然后放在一边,耐性地等灾难结束
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