Saturday, September 29, 2012

中国远洋为扭转巨亏进军能源引争议


中国远洋为扭转巨亏进军能源引争议
2012年9月25日07:31 21世纪经济报道 
高江虹
“马士基集团为什么能盈利?其实马士基航运也亏得一塌糊涂,但是,马士基集团有海上石油这个聚宝盆(弥补航运的亏损),”中远集团董事长魏家福在9月20日第九届海运年会上直率地表示,“我也正在做海上油田方面的研究,在当前不利的经济环境下,我们需要寻找更具盈利潜力的项目填补亏损裂缝。”

若中远集团意图进军能源领域,是否与专业化整合目标相背离?中远集团内部对此亦意见不统一。

国资委改革局有关人士此前曾对媒体称,央企要坚持市场化专业化运作,避免“多元化”陷阱。

A股估值正处历史新低 QFII大举入市抄底


A股估值正处历史新低 QFII大举入市抄底
http://www.sina.com.cn  2012年09月29日 10:55  长江商报微博
  长江商报消息 在日前一度跌穿2000点整数关后,上证指数近两日展开反弹。据Wind统计,本周,上证综指累计升2.93%,结束两周连跌;深证成指累计升5.82%。

  针对当前股市的投资价值和估值水平,记者采访了燕京华侨大学(微博)校长华生(微博)、万博兄弟资产管理公司董事长滕泰(微博)、海通证券(9.58,0.16,1.70%)首席经济学家李迅雷(微博)、上海证券交易所金融创新实验室主任刘逖博士等著名资本市场专家。他们认为,以沪市为例,三大证据显示当前估值正处于历史最低水平,投资价值已经凸显。以QFII为代表的价值投资者、以产业资本为代表的熟悉公司基本面的抄底资金正加速建仓。专家们明确表示,随着实体经济出现回升迹象,A股市场风险收益比正在向积极方向移动,建议投资者予以关注。

2013年財政預算案迴響‧產業盈利稅上調衝擊房市‧交易放緩房價料持穩


2013年財政預算案迴響‧產業盈利稅上調衝擊房市‧交易放緩房價料持穩
Created 09/29/2012 - 12:07
(吉隆坡28日訊)政府如市場預期般在本次的財政預算案再加強打房措施,產業盈利稅(RPGT)最高達15%,分析員認為這將對房市起負面影響,產業交易將隨之放緩,不過鑒於市場仍有龐大游資,相信房價不致於下跌,反而預計大致上會持穩。

興業研究分析員龍國雯指出,政府上調產業盈利稅,勢必衝擊市民的購房情緒;若政府僅調漲首兩年的產業盈利稅,還不會造成太大衝擊,惟如今第三至第五年脫售產業所須繳付的產業盈利稅也翻倍至10%,將打擊房市的發展。

次級房市衝擊更大

东尼卡玛鲁丁公积金增持亚航

东尼卡玛鲁丁公积金增持亚航
Created 09/29/2012 - 12:40

(吉隆坡28日讯)马交所的数据显示,亚洲航空(AirAsia,5099,主板贸服股)集团总执行长丹斯里东尼费南德斯,以及副总执行长卡玛鲁丁分别在过去数天,增持集团股权。

资料显示,东尼和卡玛鲁丁在过去3天,共增持了0.86%的亚航股权,两人目前共持有集团24%股权。

另一方面,雇员公积金局(EPF)也增持了亚航45万股,目前直接和间接持有亚航共10%股权。

亚航股价今日以3.02令吉报收,增7仙,全日成交量为3084万7400股。

土展创投放眼东南亚并购


土展创投放眼东南亚并购
Created 09/29/2012 - 13:01

(吉隆坡28日讯)土展创投(FGV,5222,主板种植股)放眼在东南亚区域更多并购,特别是上游业务,以应对国内趋向老化的棕油树。

土展创投主席兼集团总执行长拿督沙比利表示,集团的上游业务拓展将涉及收购大马的中小型种植公司,以及在印尼种植油棕以及在缅甸种植甘蔗。

沙比利告诉《星报》:“我们从首次公开发售(IPO)筹集45亿令,其中50%将用于拓展上游业务。”

集团的上游业务———原棕油、橡胶和白糖业务将在未来继续成为集团核心业务,上游业务去年为集团贡献70%的营业额。

馬股10月謹慎觀望

馬股10月謹慎觀望
Created 09/29/2012 - 11:53
(吉隆坡28日訊)基於全國大選壓力尚未解除,相信馬股在政局明朗化前步步謹慎,投資者料繼續在10月謹慎行事,保持觀望策略,同時關注各主要經濟體情況,預見馬股走勢只有在全國大選後才會明朗化。

CHK企業顧問莊學勤博士認為,馬股雖未到“內憂外患",卻存有一定顧慮,包括歐美政策效果可能不如預期,以及大選可能令大馬政局改觀,投資者仍飽受壓力,此時採取觀望或抗跌策略方是上策。

此外,儘管外資上週再買進超過6億令吉股票,連續14週淨買馬股,在本地基金繼續售股套利之際支持馬股上衝,惟大選壓力當前,此趨勢能否在下月延續還是個未知數。

柔南买靓盘


柔南买靓盘
Created 09/28/2012 - 14:41
柔州的发展随着依斯干达特区如虎添翼,市场对商机和潜能信心有加,房地产发展大受看好,房价水涨船高。

假如你很想在特区置业落地生根或投资,但又发现拥屋能力有限,不如将目光放到特区周边的二线城市,这里经济实惠的房子可不少。这期《产业周刊》,就带各位中产到特区周边城市,寻找房产遗珠。

依斯干达特区高尚房产和公寓计划,近几年以主流的趋势不断涌现,屋价不菲。

如果你看好经济特区的潜能,又心仪这里的便利和策略地理位置,但苦于能力不及,不妨将目光放远一点。

柔南特区吸资全马之冠

柔南特区吸资全马之冠
Created 09/28/2012 - 14:31
我国共有13个自由贸易区和18个工业园区,都是国家经济发展的基石,也是拉近城乡发展距离的桥梁。

在众多贸易区和工业园区中,就数在6年前面市、坐落在柔佛南部的依斯干达经济特区发展最为迅速。

根据绿地投资(Greenfield Investment)调查研究机构———fDiMarkets针对大马在2003年至2012年的调查显示,柔佛是继吉隆坡之后,吸引最多计划资金的地区。

在调查的9年内,大马共引来1565项绿地投资,当中的53项的投资地点为柔佛,而吉隆坡则录得423项。

在同期,柔佛招来的外资公司占全马4.6%,同期录得总值42亿美元(约129亿令吉)、涵盖生产、产业发展、基建、休闲和旅游的投资项目价值。

兰兵法:碰上难搞租户怎办?


兰兵法:碰上难搞租户怎办?
Created 09/28/2012 - 14:23
对于将成为房东的你,关于租户和人事的管理技巧,是你必定要学习的重要一课。

若这方面出错,你的投资之旅随时会变成一场噩梦。

过去参与我培训计划的部分学员,就面对过不少有关租户的种种状况。

现在来看一个例子,以下是我的学员的亲身经历:我有个看似不错的租户,他没有很多投诉,却有很多要求,我帮他维修一些地方和改善停车处。

拖欠租金电费

A股:不见硝烟的战场


A股:不见硝烟的战场
FT中文网投资与财富管理编辑 冯涛 2012-09-27 (www.ftchinese.com)
如果用“不见硝烟的战场”来形容现在的市场一点也不为过,透过双节前几个交易日股指上下波动,我们似乎看到了市场中各种力量激烈的碰撞。

2000点做为一个整数关口近期一直受到市场参与各方的热切关注,但是就像此前的整数关口一样,它不过是个数字象征,数字本身是不具备任何意义的,而围绕该点位展开的激烈博弈赋予了该关口一个特殊的意义。

昨日沪综指盘中终于如期的跌破2000点关口,股市重回“1”时代的定论似乎板上钉钉,但是今日A股市场却在多重利好的共振下“爆发”出近期少有的强劲反弹走势。面对极有可能出现月K线五连阴的历史极限值的窘境,在双节前倒数第二个交易日,市场突然“起死回生”,在金融股以及资源股的带动下,沪深两市股指双双大幅上涨,其中沪综指一举突破5日、10日两条重要的压力线,同时两市成交量也再次回到千亿水平上方。

索羅斯及中投爭相入飛 越房撲水名牌基金撐


索羅斯及中投爭相入飛 越房撲水名牌基金撐

【本報訊】以總代價134.4億元(人民幣.下同)鯨吞母公司越秀地產(123)旗下廣州國際金融中心(IFC)的越秀房託(405),日前落實最終的融資計劃,並將每股配股價下調,即時吸引到索羅斯在內的多個著名基金「入飛」。
記者:吳永強

按照最新計劃,越房亦會向人保集團配售1.175億基金單位,涉資達3.17億元,惟有關交易須於12月15日前得到內地中保監批准。

擬與內險加強合作
越秀集團投資者關係總監夏恒良表示,有信心人保可於限期前獲得監管當局的批文。他轉述人保的管理層指,中保監將於十八大會議後逐步放寬內地保險公司投資房地產及相關資產的規定,料風險較低的海外上市房託基金將可較早獲得「放行」。

Lumiere, Ranking Top in Asia, Favors Singapore, Hong Kong Stocks

Lumiere, Ranking Top in Asia, Favors Singapore, Hong Kong Stocks
By Tomoko Yamazaki - May 8, 2012

Lumiere Value Fund (LUMIERE), the top performer in the past three years among funds investing in the Asia- Pacific region, expects more value in Singapore and Hong Kong stocks over the next two years fueled by economic growth.

The $30 million Lumiere Value Fund, run by Singapore-based Lumiere Capital Ltd., has returned 378 percent in the past three years, making it the best performer among 3,624 funds tracked by Bloomberg that invest in equity-related products in the region. The fund has a maximum capacity of $300 million to $400 million and is seeking to raise money from investors, said Yu Liang Wong, managing director of the company.

专栏:投资中国,请关注这七只股票


分析师说,在中国内地迎接未来一个季度的大变化之际,要留心一些中国股票出现反弹。

汇丰(HSBC)周二发布关于中国的季度报告,提到了中国经济增长速度与国内股市脱节的现象:增长速度为世界主要经济体之最,股市却严重受挫。

不过汇丰说,中国股市的某些部分或将受益于美联储(Federal Reserve)最新经济刺激措施可能带来的通胀后果,而如果北京推行新一轮基础设施投资,对这些股票来说也是一种利好。

其他分析师也预计接下来会出现大的变化。凯基证券(KGI)预计,中国接下来10年一次的政治领导人调整有可能促使部分公司股价上涨。

在预计将于10月份召开的中国共产党第18次全国代表大会期间,约三分之二的党政军要职将易手。

打房措施效应不大

打房措施效应不大
Created 09/29/2012 - 14:37

(吉隆坡28日讯)产业界人士认为,政府在新财政预算案里提高产业盈利税(RPGT)的措施可能影响产业市场的购兴。

政府建议调高产业盈利税,首两年转售的产业盈利税,从原本的10%增至15%;而第三年至第五年脱售的产业盈利税,则从原本的5%增至10%。

Areca资本总执行长兼基金经理黄德明也认为,产业盈利税上调幅度低于他们的预期,料不会有太大效果。

他们认为,国行目前的措施,已足够打击产业投机活动,如限制第三套房贷融资上限为屋价70%、融资超过90%者利率调高等。

“产业市场已受之前的措施影响,政府再增加产业盈利税效果不大,显然没这必要。”

巴菲特投资三十六计之三:隔岸观火

巴菲特投资三十六计之三:隔岸观火
2010-11-29 来源:上海证券报 作者:⊙刘建位

刘建位

隔岸观火原文为:阳乖序乱,阴以待逆。暴戾恣睢,其势自毙。顺以动豫,豫顺以动。
古人按语曰:乖气浮张,逼则受击,退则远之,则乱自起。

中国古人这种智慧在巴菲特的投资中也表现的在股市过于高估的时候,总是提前走为上。等到股市火烧连营满目疮痍的时候,巴菲特才进场,趁火打劫。走为上是股价过于高估时抛出,趁火打劫则是股价过于低估时买入,上一次卖出和下一次买入之间,必须隔岸观火。

马股或陷技术回调


基于市场普遍相信2013財政预算案对马股的影响不大,再加上大选在即引起的议席爭夺战,中国和英国不理想的数据,都將导致马股来週处在回调的局势。

富时大马综合指数从上週五的1623.70点,按周升12.96或0.80%,至1636.66点。成交量从38亿4840万1000股,增15.15%来到44亿3154万8000股;成交值则从69亿8979万1000令吉,跌16.48%至58亿3794万3000令吉。

抽佣经纪符之源认为,大选在即始看到各政党爭夺参选的机会,马股这次会否重演4年前大选308前股市大跌的局面,是一大未知数及顾虑。

外围方面,儘管美国第三轮量化宽鬆(QE3)预计会为市场注入资金,但是肯南嘉投行研究部门主管陈建尧认为,美国QE3的热钱效应对股市并不能够持久,加上年末橱窗粉饰效益没有那么早涌现,马股见顶后,短期內只能窄幅波动或回跌,难有明显改善。

大橙周报 005 期 — 巴菲特的选股哲学



买股票等于投资一家公司,除非另有特殊管道,一般人为了买股票,就要踏入股市,透过公开交易买到想要的股票...

股票概分为上市和未上市,除了尚未公开发行的未上市公司股票外,已经上市的股票都可以透过证券商买卖。上市股票交易相对普遍,相关讯息容易取得,股市新手可以在比较短的时间内进入状况,不妨先从上市股票开始投资。

公司申请上市的条件严格,比如上市公司的股票必须公开流通、必须定期召开股东会、公布财报、受投资大众监督,股市新手有方便的管道了解公司营运及财务状况。

至于未上市股票,只要不是上市的公司股票都可以称之为未上市股票,未上市公司良莠不齐,但基于不同考量而维持未上市,而这类公司普通人较难买卖。

中国上市银行降低分红挑战新政


中国上市银行降低分红挑战新政
分红新政其实就是一张草纸,中国上市公司爱听就听,不爱听就翻脸。这次上市银行拟降低分红比例,就是往这张草纸上踩了一脚。

据报道,为了提高资本金,同时达到中国版巴塞尔协议三的资本监管要求,中国上市商业银行有望获准通过降低分红比例增加利润留存,促使资本补充转向“内生性”增长。

作为银行业来说,满足资本金的需求这是硬性规定。但如何补充资本金,却是一个可以选择的问题。之前,中国上市银行更多是通过再融资来补充资本金,但这种做法对股市构成了较大的负面影响。

这一次上市银行拟通过降低分红比例来增加利润留存,进而促使资本补充转向“内生性”增长。这种做法同样欠妥,是对股市管理层今年以来一直奉行的现金分红政策的挑战。

Facebook Still Too Pricey


SEPTEMBER 24, 2012
Still Too Pricey
By ANDREW BARY | MORE ARTICLES BY AUTHOR
Facebook has a business model in need of a radical change and a still-rich $61 billion market value. What's not to "like"? Plenty.

Facebook's 40% plunge from its initial-public-offering price of $38 in May has millions of investors asking a single question: Is the stock a buy? The short answer is "No." After a recent rally, to $23 from a low of $17.55, the stock trades at high multiples of both sales and earnings, even as uncertainty about the outlook for its business grows.

The rapid shift in Facebook's user base to mobile platforms—more than half of users now access the site on smartphones and tablets—appears to have caught the company by surprise. Facebook (ticker: FB) founder and CEO Mark Zuckerberg must find a way to monetize its mobile traffic because usage on traditional PCs, where the company makes virtually all of its money, is declining in its large and established markets. That trend isn't likely to change.

内地基金经理 建议增持股票

内地基金经理 建议增持股票
http://paper.wenweipo.com   [2012-09-29]    
 香港文汇报讯(记者 陈远威)据路透月度调查显示,内地基金经理对未来3个月股票持仓的建议配比为78.3%,较上月76.1%的26个月低位回升。市场持续下跌后部分公司的估值已抵新低,加上中央十八大召开在即,促使基金经理短期看淡情绪降低。

QE3利好 资金将流新兴市场
 调查共有9位基金经理参与,债券建议配比按月微升0.6个百分点至11.8%,现金建议配比则按月下跌2.8个百分点至9.9%。其中一个基金经理表示,QE3有利市场风险情绪提升,增加资金流向新兴市场的机会,加上A股进入敏感期,短期未必会出现大幅下跌的情况。

 消息指,基金经理倾向认为十八大后,内地宏观经济政策的取向将会逐渐清晰。有基金经理认为,以内地现时的经济形势而言,当前货币政策的效果有限,市场正在期待政府换届后的政策取向,尤其是财政政策方面。

Thais to block F&N capital reduction (


Thais to block F&N capital reduction
Thai Beverage Public Co (ThaiBev) and TCC Assets, which are  seeking control over Fraser & Neave (F&N), have declared that it will block a proposed capital reduction for the Singapore conglomerate. The proposal by F&N, in which the Thais hold a 30.7 per cent stake, is to pay shareholders $8.50 per cancelled share for culling one out of every three shares held. The capital reduction needed 75 per cent approval to pass. The capital reduction needed 75 per cent approval to pass. The capital reduction was F&N's plan to return to shareholders $4 billion of the $5.6 billion that it would get from selling its interests in APB to Dutch brewer Heineken.

With no other concrete plan on the table for F&N to return proceeds from a proposed disposal of Asia Pacific Breweries (APB) (S$53.0, Unrated), the move could push some F&N minorities toward accepting the Thais' general offer. Without the capital reduction, F&N shareholders who wanted to stay invested in the company will have to wait, with no certainty about how and when the Thai offer will be over.

比亞迪副總裁楊龍忠跳船


比亞迪副總裁楊龍忠跳船
【本報記者何幸孺報道】繼創益太陽能(2468)上月出現不足一周有兩名高層跳船後,比亞迪(1211)亦加入行列。比亞迪除近日遭里昂「唱衰」外,昨亦正式布有高層跳船,其副總裁楊龍忠以私人理由辭任,並即日起生效。市場人士建議,以近期跳船股的走勢而言,不論該類股份會否爆煲,散戶只宜跟跳,「勿死守」。

比亞迪經歷近日遭里昂證券狠批目標價至0.41元後,又有壞消息公布。比亞迪昨晚證實上周的傳聞,楊龍忠因公司業務結構調整及其個人原因己辭任公司副總裁,自昨日(27日)起生效。公告稱,楊龍忠確認與董事會之間並無任何意見分歧。比亞迪在港發言人亦稱,除公告內容以外,並無其他資料須作補充。

雖然上述公告大體與一般高管離任公告大同小異,不過,市場人士認為,這位於1995年便加入深圳市比亞迪實業最初擔任副總經理的老臣子,「唔可能走得咁急吧!就像思捷的前CEO也待新CEO到任一段時間後,才正式離任,為企業提供緩衝區。」

黄金投资的困惑 能否真正保值?


加拿大皇家银行资深顾问陈思进撰文:炒作投机之“求”所带来的正是合理价位之上的泡沫,也就是说,再值钱的商品也要看你在哪个价位买入。

5月,正是春暖花开的好时节。然而,2011年五一期间,国际黄金、白银价格高台跳水,把长假归来的投资者吓出一身冷汗。

黄金、白银价格暴涨暴跌,在微博上引起热议。许多网友不解:不是说黄金最值钱吗?黄金又不是股票,怎么也会大跌呢?

有网友留言:“SOS!最近我买黄金被套住了,按目前价格已经蒸发了40万元人民币,怎么办啊?”

中国股市投资者的非理性乐观


推高基准上证综合指数的是政策传闻,而非利润实质。

该指数周二收盘上涨了2.6%,至2,056点。而就在昨天,上证综指跌破了2,000点心理大关,触及2009年2月份以来的最低水平。

在绝大多数交易日中,中国股市唯美国股市马首是瞻,在美股收盘数小时后,中国股市开盘并追随美股的走势。但是周三美国股市告跌,中国大陆投资者这一次不得不另寻乐观的理由。

先是有传言称,中国证券监督管理委员会(简称:证监会)可能在一个新闻吹风会上宣布救市措施,股市因此受到提振。虽然这一传闻未能成为现实,但上证综合指数盘中涨幅最高达到了3.1%。

A股估值已处历史新低 QFII和产业资本大举入场

A股估值已处历史新低 QFII和产业资本大举入场
2012-09-28 06:49:30 来源: 上海证券报(广州)
在日前一度跌穿2000点整数关后,上证指数昨日展开绝地反击,单日大涨52.15点,涨幅达2.60%。针对当前股市的投资价值和估值水平,本报采访了燕京华侨大学校长华生、万博兄弟资产管理公司董事长滕泰(微博)、海通证券首席经济学家李迅雷、上海证券交易所金融创新实验室主任刘逖博士等著名资本市场专家。他们认为,以沪市为例,三大证据显示当前估值正处于历史最低水平,投资价值已经凸显。以QFII为代表的价值投资者、以产业资本为代表的熟悉公司基本面的抄底资金正加速建仓。专家们明确表示,随着实体经济出现回升迹象,A股市场风险收益比正在向积极方向移动,建议投资者予以关注。

看点一:估值正处历史最低点

华生表示,尽管近来实体经济遭遇了一些困难,但应该看到,这是决策层主动调整的结果,经济下行速度整体上看依然较慢。

预计在今年第四季度实体经济即将出现回升迹象,这将给股市提供更加有力支持。特别是,从统计情况看,当前股市估值已处于历史最低点。

一句话能撼动股市的基金经理


对冲基金经理埃因霍恩(David Einhorn)5月份在一次分析师和投资者电话会议上对洛杉矶保健品公司康宝莱(Herbalife Ltd.)的高管们说,“我有几个问题要问你们。”随后他用五分钟时间就该公司的销售活动向高管们发难。

到埃因霍恩说“非常感谢诸位”时,康宝莱一度高企的股价已经下跌了8.8%──当天单日跌幅总计达到20%,令该股市值缩水16亿美元。在此之后,康宝莱股价又进一步下跌了8.7%。

埃因霍恩麾下的绿光资本(Greenlight Capital Inc.)从未表示其投资了康宝莱股票。但康宝莱股票的大幅下挫显示出,这位43岁的对冲基金经理言语之间能发挥极大的影响力,为与他立场一致的其他投资者创造出利润,同时也会激怒公司高管以及与他意见不一致的分析师。

Eye on Stock AIRASIA


The Star Online > Business
Saturday September 29, 2012
Eye on Stock

AIRASIA Bhd's shares hit almost a one-year low of RM2.85 in mid-week amid concerns that the entry of a new player, Malindo Airways, could heighten competition in the low-cost carrier segment and suppress profit margin.

AirAsia's shares, however, staged a mild rebound towards the end of the week in the wake of light bargain-hunting nibbling. Sentiment was encouraged by improved overall stock market performance.

AirAsia's shares closed the week at RM3.02.

Yesterday, the counter was among the most actively traded stocks on volume of 30.8 million shares.

Can you retire with RM1mil?


The Star Online > Business
Saturday September 29, 2012
Can you retire with RM1mil?

By EUGENE MAHALINGAM
eugenicz@thestar.com.my

A MILLION ringgit is a lot of money. In the past, it was always considered “the benchmark” in terms of a person's success. After all, having RM1mil officially makes you a millionaire.

However, realistically, is RM1mil big enough to survive on today, especially once you retire?

According to official statistics, the average Malaysian male has a life expectancy of up to 75 years, while for females its up to 77 years. This means that a retiree aged 55 has to support hinself or herself for another 20 years or more.

券商買進心頭好.股息佳.股價超賣 高美達未來季度料更佳


券商:豐隆投銀研究
目標價:97仙

市場擔心房地產銷售可能放緩,尤其預算案宣佈在即,高美達(GLOMAC,5020,主要板房產)股價7月至今已下滑7.6%。

 我們認為,高美達已被過度拋售,尤其該公司股息淨回酬率已升至5.2%,由于手持巨額現金,相信可維持去年5.5仙股息,故維持買入建議。

 此外,高美達首季錄得1億6100萬令吉淨利,佔我們全年預測的23%。

依賴有地房產業務

 截至今年4月底第4季未進賬銷量為7億3100萬令吉,本財年首季已揚至7億6300萬令吉,有這創新高的未進賬銷量作后盾,預期未來季度業績表現更佳。

F&N's capital reduction plan fizzles


F&N's capital reduction plan fizzles
Plan garners 54 per cent of votes in favour but falls short after Thais voted against it
 by Conrad Raj 04:45 AM Sep 29, 2012

SINGAPORE - Fraser and Neave will continue to look for ways to reward shareholders with most of the S$5.6 billion proceeds from the sale of its stake in Asia Pacific Breweries to Dutch partner Heineken after a capital reduction exercise failed to get enough support.

The proposal needed support from 75 per cent of the votes at F&N's extraordinary general meeting yesterday, but only 54 per cent voted in favour. Crucially, Mr Charoen Sirivadhanabhakdi and his group, which owns 30.66 per cent of F&N, rejected the plan. Mr Charoen has not indicated why he is against it, but an observer close to the Thais thought this was to effectively force F&N's other shareholders to sell their shares to the Thai whiskey king's companies.

Investors may shift to stocks with rise in RPGT

Investors may shift to stocks with rise in RPGT

2012/09/29

THE planned rise in the Real Property Gains Tax (RPGT) to curb speculative activities on properties and avoid a property bubble could return investors to the stock market, say analysts.

Under the 2013 Budget, the government has proposed a review of the RPGT. Effective January 1 2013, RPGT will be imposed on profits for the disposal of properties within two years of buying at 15 per cent, and 10 per cent for those sold in the third to fifth year.

The idea of raising the RPGT is to discourage people from buying and selling houses for quick profit. RPGT is also another government's source of revenue.

Properties held longer than five years are not subject to RPGT. Also, disposals of properties between husband and wife, parents and children, grandparents and grandchildren are exempted from RPGT.

Budget 2013 highlights


Budget 2013 highlights

2012/09/28

Following are 2013 Budget highlights tabled by Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Tun Tazak in Parliament today.

* Economic growth projected to expand 4.5 per cent to 5.5 per cent.

* Nominal GDP expected to surpass RM1 trillion.

* RM251.6 billion allocated for development programmes and projects, with the focus on people's well-being.

* Federal Government's revenue in 2013 is estimated to increase to RM208.6 billion.

基金透视:「低利+QE3」助涨 高收益债资金滚滚来

基金透视:「低利+QE3」助涨 高收益债资金滚滚来
http://paper.wenweipo.com   [2012-09-29]      
第一金投信
 回顾今年金融市场表现,高收益债因企业偿债能力持续改善且债券殖利率相形诱人,纵使面临市场风波,整体债市表现仍偏强。第一金投信全球高收益债券基金(本基金主要系投资于非投资等级之高风险债券)经理人徐建华表示,年初至今,高收益债依旧维持增长态势,以JP Morgan高收益债券指数来说,年初以来上涨逾1成,且单就上个月表现来看,高收益债8月份上扬1.31%,涨幅胜过JP Morgan新兴市场债1.16%及JP Morgan投资等级债0.35%。

 展望后市,9月份美国联储局(Fed)一如市场预期推出QE3且延长低利至2015年中,宽松环境延续,将诱使更多资金流向收益率优的高收益债,尤其当前企业财务基本面持稳、违约率偏低,未来吸金魅力不容小觑。观察近来国际市场状况,9月初欧洲央行(ECB)宣布新的救市计划「直接货币交易」,同意必要时将在次级市场无限量购买欧元国家3年期以下公债,以压低债务危机国的融资成本。

 徐建华指出,美欧政府不约而同再行宽松货币政策,缓解紧绷的市场神经,尤其众所期待的QE3终于拍板定案,QE3启动后引爆的资金行情,有助支撑风险性资产表现。观察美国前两次量化宽松推出时期,无论是QE1或QE2期间,高收益债均有不错表现,主要因高收益债拥有较高票面利率,且发债公司历经2008年金融海啸洗礼,至今企业财务结构趋于稳健,基本面及收益面的双重优势,助涨高收益债。

越秀房託配售 超購4倍 基金佔70%


越秀房託配售 超購4倍 基金佔70%
越秀房託(00405)日前配售基金單位已獲初步結果,越秀集團投資者關係總監夏恒良表示,配售獲4倍超額認購,當中70%是長線基金「入飛」。除已披露的人保資產管理股份認購5,000萬美元外,尚包括中投公司、社保基金,後兩者各自認購額與人保相若。

人保認購 須獲中保監批准
夏恒良又指,人保能否成為越房基金單位持有人,須獲中保監批准,但據他向人保管理層了解,獲批成數甚高。人保管理層亦向他表示,十八大會議後當局有機會放寬保險公司進入房地產領域的規定,或讓保險公司自由購買本土或海外房託基金產品。

是次配售將於十月八日完成,夏恒良表示,完成後越房的機構投資者比例將由原來的三成大幅增加至七成。

夏恒良又表示,越房新購入的廣州國際金融中心(GZIFC)寫字樓的出租率已於上月份達65%,有信心可提前完成本年出租率70%的目標。

友邦收購料陸續有來

友邦收購料陸續有來
友邦保險(01299)早前公布上市後首宗收購,里昂認為友邦的收購活動將陸續有來。惟該行維持「跑輸大市」評級,目標價為28.6元。

一一年九月二十六日起停牌至今的超大現代(00682)公布,正尋求委任會計師事務以取替已辭任之核數師,惟未能預計委任之日期。當正式委任新核數師後,集團之財務報表審計工作將隨之展開。

佑威國際(00627)披露復牌建議最新狀況,復牌建議包括華巒之非常重大收購事項,有閞通函所載已予更新及呈交聯交所,以證明公司符合直接或間接擁有足夠業務運作之規定,保證公司可根據聯交所證券上市規則繼續上市。

天元鋁業(08253)再次接獲清盤呈請,昨遭福建泉州萬國發展有限公司入稟高院呈請清盤,這是繼天元鋁業本年四月被栢銀資源及澳盛銀行入稟呈請清盤後的第二次。

股市破位 中国经济底在何方?

首席评论 2012 股市破位 中国经济底在何方? 120928

東亞再遭非執董拋售


東亞再遭非執董拋售
東亞銀行(00023)非執行董事邱繼炳,於一個月間,連續減持東亞股份,合共套現1.06億元。

聯交所股權資料,邱繼炳於本周一及二,連續兩日在場內合計減持東亞48.36萬股,每股平均價介乎29.263元至29.461元,套現逾1,422萬元,持好倉降至0.07%。東亞股價昨逆市跌0.3%。

邱繼炳於八月二十三及九月十八日,均以連續多日減持的方式,出售東亞股份。他首先於上月二十三日起,連續四日沽出東亞股份,總數達189.41萬股,平均價介乎28.59元至29.75元,涉資達5,598萬元。及至本月十八至二十一日,亦連續四日減持合共124.74萬股,每股平均價介乎28.902元至29.437元,套現約3,600萬元。

券商睇淡 建議沽售
東亞上個月公布中期業績,期內的貸款減值撥備飆升,主要因為內地壞帳增加,中國內地業務稅前盈利亦倒退近1%。該行上半年淨息差收窄10點子至1.63%。

麥博士估煤炭股反彈


麥博士估煤炭股反彈
「新興市場之父」麥博士表示,看好內地煤炭股前景,認為這類股份估值有望從現時紀錄低位水平反彈,主要是冬季將至及煤庫存減少,市場將恢復對煤的需求。

或收購海外礦場
麥博士表示,內地煤炭商業務不只開採煤礦,還包括發電,而全球對電力需求只會有增無減。他預期這類企業會向海外擴展業務,環球市場增長放緩為煤炭企業帶來用較低成本購入礦場機會。

中國煤炭工業協會數據顯示,儘管今年首八個月內地煤炭產量跌7.9個百分點,但銷量增幅顯著回落10.7個百分點,令煤炭庫存維持高位,拖累煤價表現,並令煤炭股估值向下。《彭博社》數據顯示,中資煤炭股預測市盈率約11倍,與上月底創下10.2倍最少五年低位相近。

惟分析指第四季煤價或反彈,料中國神華(01088)及中煤能源(01898)未來十二個月漲25%及21%。

留意商品股吸納機會


留意商品股吸納機會
鑑於環球經濟增長欠佳,今年商品範疇表現不濟,尤其因為天然資源的需求現已十分倚賴新興市場的持續發展,而新興國家的增長預期卻普遍下跌。

商品需求逐步回升
展望後市,隨着新興市場需求增加、美國經濟慢慢轉強,以及歐債危機穩定下來,商品需求應會逐步回升。對於中長線投資者來說,現在或許是值得留意的入市時機。

隨着伊朗受到制裁及叙利亞局勢轉壞,原油價格在過去3個月已穩步上升。但全球而言,石油供應仍然充足,故應不會對中期油價有重大負面影響。

能源業在開發頁岩天然氣和油砂等新領域的發展,正帶來許多令人振奮的投資機遇,不少企業都在努力探索有關新資源。相信在未來多年,這些新機會都可為能源資源企業提供增長潛力。

陶冬:內地貨幣政策 難救結構性轉型

陶冬:內地貨幣政策 難救結構性轉型
2012年9月29日
【明報專訊】來港18年的瑞信董事總經理兼亞洲區首席經濟分析員陶冬向來言論大膽,曾對1997年亞洲金融風暴和2004年中國宏觀調控作出過前瞻性分析和預警。除看淡本港樓市,他亦不看好未來幾年的中國經濟。他形容增速放緩的中國經濟,有如一輛陷入雪地的車,貨幣政策難救中國結構性轉型,對房地產升溫也只能視而不見。

陶冬指中國面對製造業已無利可圖,服務業利潤雖然可觀,但多被國企壟斷,需要有強勢的領導層為民營企業提供機會,得以在醫療、教育、環保等服務行業分一杯羹。但陶冬表示,結構性調整必然觸動利益階層,因此注定是一個漫長的過程。

料內地新領導層減稅救經濟

陶冬嘆樓瘋 坐言起行賣樓


陶冬嘆樓瘋 坐言起行賣樓
1890萬沽擎天 持貨6年賺價逾倍
2012年9月29日
【明報專訊】樓價再創歷史高位,一向言論大膽的瑞信董事總經理兼亞洲區首席經濟分析師陶冬慨嘆,樓市已達瘋狂狀態,日前坐言起行,以1890萬元沽出九龍站擎天半島一個收租多年的單位,未計租金收入,持貨6年帳面已賺1020萬元,期內物業升值近1.2倍。據悉,陶冬現時於擎天半島仍持有一個單位收租,每月租金逾6萬元,單位市值亦上升至約2800萬元,較5年前買入價高五成半。

陶冬昨日出席瑞信亞洲第四季經濟展望記者會時透露,個人於本周四(即27日)已售出一伙香港物業。市場消息透露,該單位為擎天半島2座低層E室,面積1389方呎,3房連套房間隔,望內園景,成交價1890萬元,較開價1900萬元僅低10萬元,呎價13,607元,與同類成交價相若。

尚持擎天一伙收租 市值升至2800萬

曹仁超:我非刻意唱衰中国股市 大款爱国不爱股


曹仁超:我非刻意唱衰中国股市 大款爱国不爱股
2012年09月28日08:03中国企业家网
近日,香港《信报》董事、“平民股神”曹仁超在《香港信报》发表文章,称内地大款口中爱国、爱党,但不爱股,手脚并用提得就提走得就走,形成A股独憔悴,一点也不意外。面对大陆股市,曹仁超认为计P/E、论回报传统方法不管用。
以下为曹仁超观点原文。

曹仁超:
欧美港股炒到火爆,上海A股独憔悴,投资者都知什么一回事,放松政策口惠而实不至,经济数据愈来愈差,中日关系恶化,资金不断撤离大陆市场。

外汇存款持续下降,中日交恶令资金加速流出,不敢趁低流入以免一旦擦枪走火到时想撤已迟。非但外资有顾忌,内地大款口中爱国、爱党,但不爱股,手脚并用提得就提走得就走,形成A股独憔悴,一点也不意外。

曾淵滄教路 25.09.12: 新界東北發展計劃 地產商啞子吃黃連


新界東北發展計劃 地產商啞子吃黃連
新界東北的發展計劃面對重重阻力,有政治性的反對,有村民反對,還有沒有出面,但在背後發功反對的地產商。

政治性的反對以反「深港一體化」為口號,不易處理,村民反對則較易處理,所謂反對只是要求提高賠償額。另外,地產商則啞子吃黃連,雖反對都不好意思開口反對,只能在背後發功,推動別人反對。

怕被扣地產霸權帽子

英Blog物館 25.09.12: 四類企業增長故事 結果差天共地


四類企業增長故事 結果差天共地
早前本欄講過,投資者熱愛增長,上市公司也被迫「提供」增長亮點。但在相同的出發點下,結果卻各有不同。少數公司成功創造價值,轉化成股東的回報;多數卻只能浮浮沉沉,成效不彰。正如大部分經濟因素,如通脹等,對不同股份有不同影響,增長之於企業,也不可一視同仁。雖然在財務報表上,大家都是多一蚊營業額、多一分純利,但增長從何而來,效果相差很遠。

增長背後誰萎縮了

企業教科書將增長源頭,大致分成四類:市場本身增長、市佔率增長、加價、收購合併。要知道公司的板斧是否對辦,盡信數不如無數,因為公司要在一、兩年間,於數字上增長,尤其只是營業額,難度不高。要考慮的是公司做大背後,是誰萎縮了?「被倒退」的對手,是只能眼定定等死,還是短期內有力復仇,大舉反擊?

中国经济进入小熊市?


中国经济进入小熊市?

文:  (译:麦美莹) 
  • 2012年08月24日
  •  马来西亚展望
    文:杨媚琪
    当中国人民银行在7月初公布减息时, 市场便意识到中国的经济状况比早前预测来得差。在短短的一个月内,中国央行把其基准利率两度调低,让一年期贷款利率总共减少56个基点,而银行也可以把它们提供的贷款利率折扣10%至30%。这样一来,如果银行提供最高的折扣率,最低的有效贷款率将会是两次减息后再减少170个基点。央行的积极行动说明了政府想先发制人来击退整体疲弱需求所带来的负面冲击。


    表1: 基准存款及贷款利率调整
    资料来源: 人民银行
    Fundsupermart 汇编
    数据截止2012年7月6日
    在第二次减息后的一个星期所公布的2Q12国内生产总值(GDP)显示经济实际上正大幅放缓。第二季的GDP年比只增长7.6%,这是最近三年以来的最低增幅,而今年第一季的GDP年比增长为8.1%。

    建筑业强劲增长


    建筑业强劲增长
    2012年09月27日 马来西亚展望
    文:杨名万

    马来西亚第二季经济意外地取得5.4%增长,不但远比一般预期的4.6%为高,甚至超越了最乐观的5.2%市场预测。

    今年第一及第二季的国内生产总值均超越市场预测。原本市场预期首季的经济增长为4.3%至4.5%之间。结果,当初步数字于今年6月公布时,第一季国内生产总值增长4.7%,而当第二季经济数字在8月公布时,首季增长数字再修正为4.9%。

    在第一季取得接近5%增长后,第二季的表现又明显超越5%,因此上半年的经济增长为5.1%,令经济增长已向着今年初以来力求全方位达到的5%目标跨前一大步。

    索羅斯:中國增長模式須變

    索羅斯:中國增長模式須變
    索羅斯及德州太平洋集團資本(TPG Capital)創辦人之一邦德曼(David Bonderman)就中國經濟「各抒己見」。索羅斯揚言中國靠低估幣值的增長模式「已到盡頭」;邦德曼則認為中國經濟仍然快速發展,企業存在投資吸引力。

    被稱為「大炒家」的索羅斯日前於紐約的一個公開活動時指出,中國內地目前以低估幣值及囤積外匯儲備,以出口及貿易等帶動經濟的成長策略,相信已走到了盡頭。他認為,經濟增長動力近年令內地中央政府變得更有「話語權」,若內地經濟增長放緩,會對中國領導人的管治造成極大麻煩,故相信內地的經濟成長模式必須作出改變。

    邦德曼:投資良機
    另一方面,邦德曼這位私募股權投資大師則表明,他對亞太區的投資前景與同行截然不同,尤其是經濟快速發展的中國,當地企業的估值十分具吸引力,而投資者若有足夠的風險胃納,目前是一個投資中國的極佳時機。

    比亞迪副總裁楊龍忠辭職

    比亞迪副總裁楊龍忠辭職
    2012年9月28日
    【明報專訊】股神巴菲特「愛股」比亞迪(1211)近日股價一沉百踩,上半年純利按年大跌九成,本周二遭券商里昂唱淡每股只值0.41元,昨天又正式確認其副總裁楊龍忠辭職,不再擔任公司任何職務,驗證了市場對楊離職的傳聞,也是繼去年8月以來比亞迪第二位高層離職。

    7月曾拋售股份套1.2億

    比亞迪公告稱,楊龍忠因公司業務調整及其個人原因辭任副總裁,與董事會之間並無任何意見分歧。楊龍忠是比亞迪創辦人之一,也是比亞迪主席王傳福的同學,負責公司的市場營銷。

    早在今年7月比亞迪A股解除禁售後,楊及比亞迪其他高管在短短一個月內立即展開瘋狂減持,套現總數逾7 億元人民幣。

    10月熊影幢幢 抗跌股避风险

    吉隆坡28日讯)市场认为踏入10月份,马股仍面对国內外的不稳定因素,因此宜买进抗跌股。

    马股9月份表现不佳,跌幅为0.63%,是区域少数按月下跌的市场。9月份下跌的区域股市包括东京日经指数与澳洲悉尼普通指数,分別跌2.66%及0.71%。

    区域股市中,台湾加权指数涨幅冠区域,全月涨5.09%。紧追的泰国曼谷综合指数及韩国首尔综合指数,分別上升4.92%及4.19%。

    回顾马股9月与第三季表现,大部分时间都处于涨势,期间更创下1654.11点歷史新高纪录。马股第三季上涨2.66%。

    市场展望来临的10月,富时大马综合指数將面对海內外不稳定因素,市场將充斥著「技术性回调、套利及卖压」的熊市身影。因此建议投资者宜持续买进抗跌股,避开「高风险股」。

    预算案无惊喜 马股没大作为


    (吉隆坡28日讯)一如市场预期,这是一份亲民预算案但市场普遍认为对估值接近饱和的马股,不会注入太大活力。

    马股周五开低收高,早盘一度陷跌至1628.86点后即上扬,在1635至1640点的高点徘徊,全日最高至1639.79点。

    在首相纳吉下午4时发佈预算案前30分钟,马股一度跌破1630点,但隨后受到扶持重拾涨幅,最终以1636.66点掛收。

    部份受访者认为,政府在大派糖果后,会否打铁趁热隨即举行全国大选,才是左右股市的风向標。根据政府宣佈多项减轻人民负担的措施,营造良好的氛围,预示著大选不远。

    接受《东方財经》电访的市场人士认为预算案对股市只是「中和」,影响不大。抽佣经纪符之源表示,过去数年预算案对股市的影响已式微。

    Fraser & Neave Votes for Heineken Deal

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    《财经中间站》价格滑坡致国内约40%铁矿山停产

    《财经中间站》价格滑坡致国内约40%铁矿山停产 http://www.sina.com.cn 2012年09月28日 第一财经《财经中间站》

    《财经中间站》中海油收购尼克森欲寻求约60亿美元外部融资

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    《财经早班车》 基金:救市政策出台与否决定2000点保卫战结果

    《财经早班车》 基金:救市政策出台与否决定2000点保卫战结果 http://www.sina.com.cn 2012年09月28日 宁夏卫视《财经早班车》

    《财经早班车》 光大保德信:市场平淡中孕育着希望

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    《环球第一财经》A股上演起死回生沪指大涨2.6% http://www.sina.com.cn 2012年09月27日 宁夏卫视《财经夜行线》

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    Friday, September 28, 2012

    里昂踩比亞迪寸股神

    里昂踩比亞迪寸股神
    比亞迪(01211)「瓦解(Falling apart)」!里昂證券昨以此為題,發報告狠削其目標價近95%至「鞋底價」0.41港元,並大削今年盈利預測96.4%至4,300萬元(人民幣‧下同),即較去年實際盈利暴跌96.89%,料明年盈利亦僅6,500萬元,維持「沽售」評級。若里昂的預測應驗,○八年以8港元入股的「股神」巴菲特將「勁蝕」逾17億港元。

    市值僅剩400億
    今次發表報告的里昂分析師樂天虎(Scott Laprise)早年曾是比亞迪的「粉絲」,更曾試駕其雙模電動車,並對之十分着迷,惟眼看公司一再延遲該款產品的推出日期,他在一○年終將其評級轉為「沽售」,對比亞迪改變看法,令他在去年獲選為亞洲最佳分析師。

    獲「股神」入股加上對電動車的美麗憧憬,曾令比亞迪股價在○九年攀上85.5港元的歷史高峰,市值逾1,800億港元,但隨着電動車神話幻滅,公司近年盈利逐年遞減,今年上半年盈利亦大跌94.1%至1,600萬元,加上電動的士e6起火等不利消息,一眾大行紛紛調低比亞迪目標價,其中瑞穗目標價僅7.3元,但今次里昂勁削目標價至0.41元,驚嚇整個投行界,比亞迪股價昨日再跌3.67%,收報14.7港元,市值只餘約400億港元。

    Greece Is Better Investment Than China Right Now


    Greece Is Better Investment Than China Right Now
    Published: Wednesday, 26 Sep 2012 | 1:51 PM ET Text Size
    By: Katy Barnato
    Assistant Editor, CNBC

    Greece may be in flames, but its stock market is doing quite nicely.

    In fact, the gains so far this year have outpaced those in many financially stronger countries—especially China.

    While Greece’s battle to combat its deficit, secure aid and implement austerity measures has roiled global markets since the start of the European debt crisis, its benchmark stock market index is set to end 2012 sharply in the black.

    As of Wednesday, the Athens Composite Index had rallied 11.65 percent since the start of 2012, comparing favorably with “core” European countries’ indexes, such as France’s CAC 40 [.FCHI  3429.86     15.02  (+0.44%)   ] which is up 11.20 percent.

    Facebook, Facing Investor Skepticism Over Mobile, Also Dinged By Developers


    Facebook, Facing Investor Skepticism Over Mobile, Also Dinged By Developers

    Investors aren’t the only ones skeptical that Facebook can capitalize on mobile users.

    “Mobile developers believe that a mobile-first startup could disrupt Facebook,” Appcelerator and research firm IDC found after surveying 5,526 mobile developers last month. “A resounding 66 percent of mobile developers state that it is ‘likely to very likely’ that a mobile-first social startup will disrupt the market for social applications on mobile devices and take market share from Facebook.”

    Facebook’s shares fell 9.1 percent yesterday to $20.79, the biggest drop in almost two months, after a story in Barron’s said the Menlo Park, California-based company is overvalued and could fall below $15 a share. Facebook, led by CEO Mark Zuckerberg, went public on May 18 at $38, but the company hasn’t been able to rise above the IPO price since then amid concerns that it hasn’t figured out how to make money from mobile ads and mobile users.

    麒麟擬售星狮集团15%持股


    东京28日讯)星狮集团股东週五同意將亚太酿酒集团(APB)的股份出售给海尼根(Heineken)。同时,消息人士週五表示,日本麒麟控股正考虑出售其持有的星狮集团(F&N)近15%股份。

    在週五的股东大会上,98.73%星狮集团股东投票同意接受海尼根的收购提议,仅1.27%的股东投票反对。这项收购还需获得新加坡监管机构的批准。

    此外,一名消息人士对《路透社》称,麒麟控股正在研究多个选项,包括將股份售予泰国酿酒,或者以更高的价码售予另一个潜在买家。

    消息人士还补充道,泰国酿酒已就购买上述股份事宜与麒麟控股进行过接触。

    泰国酿酒上周提出72亿美元收购星狮集团。日本《经济新闻》週五报导称,麒麟控股若將手中所有星狮集团的股份售予泰国酿酒,可能將获得约1200亿日圆(约46亿令吉)。

    Heineken-takeover-of-Tiger-Beer-maker-approved

    Market Insight:比亞迪有排冇運行


    Market Insight:比亞迪有排冇運行
    若非巴塞對魚腩賽事強弱懸殊,要出現十四對一比數唔易。昨日A股出現十四跌一升的一面倒戰局,滬綜指鋼鐵底二千點大關,被要錢唔要貨一樣的內地股民一度推倒,收市死貓彈番到2,004點,創下四十四個月新低。

    通街都話A股平,但就日日有唔少賓架趕住去換眼鏡,到底隊到乜位,相信是最多股民所關心。客觀條件,A股估值較過去十年兩次熊市低,刻下可能離真正低位不遠,尤其貨幣政策有充裕的放寬空間。而十八大盛傳下月中展開,憧憬中央有提振經濟措施公布,A股低位較大機會在十月中之前或後出現。

    滬綜見千九點唔奇
    另外,前日人行出動史上最大規模嘅2,900億人仔的逆回購,可惜人民幣拆息依然不為所動,在七個月高位徘徊,有芬佬話,即使人行逆回購不絕,過去兩星期內地水緊情況變本加厲,主要是粉飾季結,銀行資金供應變得緊張,過埋呢兩日應有改善,按此推斷,最壞打算每日插1至2%,滬綜指都未必輕易到達淡友大摩的目標1,850點,試穿2,000點,或者掂一掂1,900點機會卻是存在。

    K-REIT Asia acquires stake in Australia-based Trust for A$211m


    K-REIT Asia acquires stake in Australia-based Trust for A$211m

    The manager of K-REIT Asia said it is buying a 50% stake in Mirvac (Old Treasury) Trust (MOTT) for A$165 million ($211.2 million) to jointly develop a new office tower in the central business district of Perth, Western Australia.

    Currently under construction, the office tower, sited on the Old Treasury Building development, will be a 35-storey premium Grade A building and is strategically located in the heart of Perth's CBD. The new office tower is targeted for completion in the second half of 2015, and will have 331,500 square feet of net lettable area (NLA) and 203 car park lots.

    When completed, the office tower will be approximately 98% leased to the Government of Western Australia, which has committed to a lease for a period of 25 years with options for another 25 years.

    越房配股 作價低過「預期」


    越房配股 作價低過「預期」
    2012年9月27日
    【明報專訊】越秀地產(0123)、越秀房託(0405)昨晨雙雙停牌,待發出有關越房單位配售及增加新銀行融資的公告,以支付越房獲注廣州ifc的「蛇吞象」交易。不過,根據銷售文件,越房配售新單位的價格為每單位3.3元,較集團在交易獲股東會投票通過前一直引用的「說明性最高攤薄發行價」3.56元,整整下調0.26元。

    發行價「僅列作說明用途」

    雖然通函中確有明列,說明性融資結構及說明性最高攤薄發行價「僅列作說明用途」(見表)。但管理層此前在公開場合對配股價表現頗為自信,鮮有提及配售價可能跌穿3.56元的保守估計。作為眾多小股東最關心的議題,定價下調後會否讓原有股東權益進一步攤薄,自然引起市場關心。不過,管理層昨日表示,為維持每基金單位分派(DPU)攤薄不多於1.8分的早前承諾,最終將減少發行單位總數,而配售所集資金較原先計劃的缺口,則會通過增加銀行貸款補足。

    SingTel likely to bid aggressively for Barclays Premier League: CIMB


    SingTel will likely bid aggressively for BPL rights, CIMB says. “Armed with deep pockets, we think SingTel is aiming to bag the BPL broadcast rights but on non-exclusive terms. SingTel needs iconic content such as the BPL to grow its subscriber base and to complete its football line-up that it has been aggressively building up.”

    Non-exclusivity won’t trigger a cross-carriage ruling, which will force non-SingTel viewers to sign up with SingTel to view the matches, it notes; it adds, the Premier League likely won’t price exclusive and non-exclusive rights differently. The risk StarHub will overpay is low, as its spending appetite hasn’t changed much over the years, CIMB says.

    “StarHub appears to be content with beefing up non-football offerings and, as the last bidding shows, has no inclination to spend exorbitantly. StarHub’s profitability was little affected by the absence of BPL from its line-up.”

    Ascott Residence Trust down 0.4%; Buys Hamburg property


    Ascott Residence Trust is flat at $1.255, underperforming the FTSE REIT index’s 0.3% rise after the REIT said it agreed to acquire a 166-unit property in Hamburg for EUR37.5 million, or around $59.4 million. The REIT didn’t provide details of how it would finance the acquisition.

    “The gearing is still about 40%. It will probably go up, but chances are the portfolio will probably be revalued up by the end of the year. The gearing on the new asset values might not be over 40%,” an analyst says. He believes an equity fund-raising is unlikely, but adds “it’s hard to say.”

    He notes the stock is trading below book value. He says the deal is unusual as the property will continue to be managed by a local operator, the first time the operator hasn’t been CapitaLand-related; while it is ART’s first property in Hamburg, it is the third in Germany, he notes. The stock’s volume is scant, suggesting it may remain in its $1.25-$1.255 intraday range.

    Budget 2013 Government proposes higher property gains tax


    Budget 2013 Government proposes higher property gains tax
    Business & Markets 2012
    Written by Chong Jin Hun of theedgemalaysia.com  
    Friday, 28 September 2012 18:26

    KUALA LUMPUR (Sept 28): The Government will raise the real property gains tax (RPGT) under the 2013 Budget to curb speculation in the domestic property market.

    Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak said in his Budget speech that the RPGT will be increased to 15% for PROPERTIES [] held and sold within two years, while the tax rate will be increased to 10% for entities disposed of between two and five years from the date of purchase.

    The will be no RPGT for properties sold after five years from the time of purchase, according to Najib.

    Under the 2012 Budget, the RPGT is 10% for properties held and disposed of within two years, and 5% for entities sold between two and  five years.

    AirAsia share rise on possible buying by Fernandes, EPF

    AirAsia share rise on possible buying by Fernandes, EPF
    Business & Markets 2012
    Written by Isabelle Francis theedgemalaysia.com  
    Friday, 28 September 2012 16:01

    KUALA LUMPUR (Sept 28): AirAsia chairman Tan Sri Tony Fernandes and the Employees Provident Fund (EPF) have been accumulating shares of AIRASIA BHD [] in the past week after the share of the budget airline plunged to a new low recently.

    Yesterday, the counter rebounded. It continued to climb today.

    At 3.40 pm today, AirAsia – one of the most actively traded shares -- was up 9 sen or 3% at RM3.04 on volume of some 23 million shares.

    For YTL, it is a long-term commitment


    For YTL, it is a long-term commitment

    2012/09/28

    GROWING A BRAND: It’s more than just about above the line and below the line campaigns, says MD
    FOR Tan Sri Francis Yeoh, the managing director of YTL Corp Bhd, building the company's brand is more than just about above the line and below the line campaigns.

    It is a long-term commitment to building a brand that consumers can trust.

    "At the end of the day, branding is a long-term commitment and it should reflect the culture of a group which should ideally be a force for good.

    "It should not be exploited for short-term monetary gains. I believe that as long as you do the right thing, be a force for good, the profits will eventually come in a big way," Yeoh said in an interview.

    热门股:亚洲航空 上探RM3.06

    热门股:亚洲航空 上探RM3.06
    Created 09/28/2012 - 11:54
    周四盘中,亚洲航空(Airasia,5099,主板贸服股)的行情显现着一段技术反弹趋势,闭市时报2.95令吉,起10仙或3.51%。

    此股在平开后逐步反弹,全天在2.85-2.95令吉,10仙间波动,但短期或会上探2.96-3.06令吉间的阻力位。

    AXIS產託擬再購5資產


    AXIS產託擬再購5資產
    Created 09/28/2012 - 09:21
    (吉隆坡27日訊)AXIS產業信托(AXREIT,5106,主板產業投資信托組)計劃再收購5項新資產,大部份位於柔佛州。

    該公司首席執行員史提沃利萊在股東特大後表示,因目前還在與當地業主洽談收購事項,無法進一步透露詳情。

    目前,該公司已收購總值2億1千950萬令吉產業,尚有總值2億2千778萬令吉資產收購還在洽談階段。

    該公司今日獲股東通過Academy及Annex大廈收購計劃及紅利再投資計劃(IDRP),發售19.28%或8千748萬3千344單位。

    亚航 Malindo合作互惠 反竞争法最大绊脚石


    亚航 Malindo合作互惠 反竞争法最大绊脚石
    Created 09/28/2012 - 10:37
    (吉隆坡27日讯)若亚洲航空(AirAsia,5099,主板贸服股)与Malindo Airways携手合作,双方将可从对方的利基优势中获利,惟反竞争法令限制是此潜在合作的最大绊脚石。

    亚航集团总执行长丹斯里东尼费南德斯昨日表示,将会与Malindo母公司狮航(PT Lion)总裁卢思迪基拉在近日会面,不排除与Malindo合作的可能性。

    艾芬投资银行研究在一份分析报告中指,双方的合作绝对正面,因亚航可借助Malindo的维护、维修及检修(MRO)业务,特别是在后者持有25%股权的NADI,主要业务即包括MRO专长。

    同时,Malindo也可利用亚航广泛的航线网络和采购能力,亚航目前飞往超过25个国家、400个目的地。

    合并成本入账短暂影响业绩 沙布拉肯油前景仍看好

    合并成本入账短暂影响业绩 沙布拉肯油前景仍看好
    Created 09/28/2012 - 11:43
    (吉隆坡27日讯)虽然合并成本入账影响沙布拉肯油(Skpetro,5218,主板贸服股)业绩,但分析员依然看好公司前景一片明亮。

    沙布拉肯油公布最新2013财年上半年及次季业绩。

    鉴于一次性合并成本入账(7540万令吉),以及仅计入肯油2.5个月业绩(2012年5月15日至7月31日),拉低了上半年净利表现,低于证券行预测。

    由此,侨丰投资研究和MIDF研究分析员都下调了沙布拉肯油2013财年净利预测,分别为23.1%与29.8%。

    可是,肯南嘉研究分析员指出,从沙布拉肯油管理层业绩汇报会中了解,合并成本在2012年曾给予部分入账,预计约有2000万至3000万令吉则将在未指明的年份内摊销。

    Thai billionaire gets boost for F&N bid as dividend is vetoed


    Fraser & Neave will keep US$4.6 billion ($5.6 billion) from the sale of its beer unit to Heineken NV after shareholders rejected a plan to pay out a special dividend, handing a victory to Thai billionaire Charoen Sirivadhanabhakdi.

    Charoen, who is trying to buy the remainder of F&N, opposed the dividend. He is offering US$7.3 billion for F&N, which also makes soft drinks, dairy products and owns real estate.

    The approval of the sale to Heineken and Charoen’s success in keeping the proceeds with F&N could pave the way for him to take control of the conglomerate’s other assets. In winning Asia Pacific Breweries, Heineken gets a key beer business in emerging markets, where it lags competitors.

    “There’s still that cloud of uncertainty for shareholders,” said Justin Harper, Singapore-based market strategist at IG Markets, referring to F&N investors. “Should they sell their shares now or wait to see what the Thais have in store for F&N going forward.”

    F&N says Kirin has shown no intention to sell stake


    F&N says Kirin has shown no intention to sell stake

    Japan’s Kirin Holdings Co has not indicated any intention to sell its nearly 15% stake in Singapore’s Fraser and Neave, F&N’s financial controller Hui Choon Kit said on Friday.

    Sources with direct knowledge of the matter told Reuters on Friday the Japanese brewer, the second-biggest shareholder in the drinks and property group, was exploring several options, including selling its F&N stake to Thai Beverage or another potential buyer at a higher price.

    Kirin had said previously it was interested in F&N’s food and non-alcoholic drinks business.

    F&N fails to get shareholder support for capital reduction


    Singapore’s Fraser and Neave failed to get the required 75% vote in favour of its plan pay out $4 billion to its shareholders after the sale of its beer business, Asia Pacific Breweries, to Heineken NV.

    About 54.3% of shareholders voted in favour of the capital reduction plan, below the 75% required for the proposal to go through.

    F&N’s biggest shareholders - companies linked to a Thai billionaire - had said earlier this week that they will vote against the capital reduction plan.

    The Thai group, which owns a combined 30.7% stake in F&N, has made a US$7.2 billion ($8.8 billion) bid to take over the Singapore conglomerate, which also has interests in soft drinks, dairy products, property and publishing.

    Ascott REIT to acquire yield accretive Madison Hamburg for $59m


    Ascott REIT to acquire yield accretive Madison Hamburg for $59m
    Ascott Residence Trust (Ascott REIT) has agreed to acquire a prime property in the German city of Hamburg for €37.5 million ($59.4 million). The 166-unit Madison Hamburg is Ascott REIT’s first acquisition in Hamburg.

    Madison Hamburg is strategically located at the junction of three key areas in Hamburg – the city centre with many well-known retail streets; Hafen City, an up-and-coming commercial, retail and entertainment district; and Reeperbahn, Hamburg’s most popular tourist area. The property is surrounded by the offices of many multinational companies such as KPMG, Ernst & Young, Deloitte and Unilever, while metro stations, museums and shopping arcades are within walking distance.

    Popular and reputable among domestic and foreign travellers, the seven-storey Madison Hamburg has a net lettable area of 19,285 sqm and offers a range of studios, loft units, suites and penthouses. Facilities at the property include meeting rooms, a business centre, restaurant and bar, gymnasium, spa, swimming pool and car park.

    EPF, Fernandes, Kamarudin increase stakes in AirAsia


    The Star Online > Business
    Friday September 28, 2012
    EPF, Fernandes, Kamarudin increase stakes in AirAsia

    KUALA LUMPUR: AirAsia Bhd's group chief executive officer Tan Sri Tony Fernandes and deputy group chief executive officer Datuk Kamarudin Meranun have increased their stakes in the low-cost carrier over the past few days, according to reports to the stock exchange.

    They have increased their combined stakes in the company by a nett 0.86% over the past three days, filings with the stock exchange showed. They now own a combined deemed interest of close to 24% in AirAsia.

    On another development, the Employees Provident Fund (EPF) board had also increased its stakes in AirAsia by acquiring about 450,000 shares. The EPF board now holds total direct and indirect stakes of almost 10% in AirAsia.

    More mergers and acquisitions for Felda Global Ventures

    The Star Online > Business
    Friday September 28, 2012
    More mergers and acquisitions for Felda Global Ventures

    It is targeting Asean in its upstream expansion programme

    By HANIM ADNAN

    nem@thestar.com.my

    KUALA LUMPUR: Felda Global Ventures Holdings Bhd (FGVH) is targeting more mergers and acquisitions (M&As) in the Asean region, especially in the upstream operations, partly to counter i ts old age oil palm profile in Malaysia.

    Group president and chief executive officer Datuk Sabri Ahmad said the group's upstream expansion would involve acquisitions of prospective small and mid-tiered plantation companies in Malaysia as well as green and brown fields for oil palm in Indonesia and sugar plantations in Myanmar.

    友邦購斯里蘭卡保險


    友邦購斯里蘭卡保險
    友邦保險(01299)銳意開拓業務版圖,昨日宣布上市以來第一宗收購,友邦將購入斯里蘭卡保險公司的92.3%股權,並與斯里蘭卡的國家發展銀行達成20年的獨家銀行保險協議,整項收購淨代價為1.09億美元,證券界表示,收購配合業務發展,對其股價有支持。

    涉逾億美元 現金支付
    除了購入斯里蘭卡保險公司的92.3%股權,並與當地銀行長年期的獨家銀保協議外,集團同時收購NDB Aviva Wealth Management Limited的83.9%股權,並向斯里蘭卡的國家發展銀行出售有關股權,整項收購淨代價涉額1.09億美元,全數以現金支付,料年底前完成有關交易。

    對於集團能夠入主斯里蘭卡險商,友邦首席執行官兼總裁杜嘉祺感到相當高興,他認為斯里蘭卡增長強勁,其現有保險滲透率處於低水平,具發展潛力及吸引力,而是次收購將令友邦成為斯里蘭卡的第二大人壽保險公司。他期待,集團在斯里蘭卡的保險領域發展上,扮演領先角色。

    內地保險商減持A股

    內地保險商減持A股
    A股走勢反覆,保險資金有降低股票投資迹象。港交所(00388)權益披露資料顯示,中信証券(06030)於九月二十六日,遭國壽(02628)母公司中國人壽集團,於場內大手減持4,041.13萬股A股,平均每股作價11元(人民幣‧下同),涉及資金逾4.445億元,A股好倉持股量由7.41%,下降至6.99%。

    除國壽集團減持中信証券外,平保集團上周曾傳出在一日之內,向兩家基金管理公司合共贖回逾6億元指數基金,並且短期內將不再增加偏股型基金組合規模消息,被投資者解讀為保險公司等機構投資者看淡A股走勢。

    9券商獲批管理險資
    不過,中國保監會周三發表公告表示,博時基金、海通證券、中金公司等合共九家機構,已獲批成為首批管理保險資金的非保險類投資管理機構。內地傳媒統計,截至八月底為止,保險資產總額6.6萬億元,理論上合計有1.65萬億元資金可委託進行權益類投資。受消息刺激,昨日中信証券、國金證券等滬深上市券商股全線向好,當中中信証券上漲4.91%,國金證券更急漲10.03%。

    索羅斯: 中國增長走到盡頭


    索羅斯: 中國增長走到盡頭

    【本報訊】基金大鱷對中國故事失去信心!曾狙擊港股、著名對冲基金經理索羅斯(George Soros)表示,中國靠低估貨幣與囤積外滙儲備來促進經濟增長的模式,已經走到了盡頭。


    索羅斯在美國紐約出席一項活動後指出,持續至今的這種增長模式已經耗盡,內地必須改變,而增長減速對中央領導人是超大麻煩(big, big trouble),原因是經濟增長強化中央的權力。


    睇淡中國的不單一人,全球最大基金之一貝萊德(Blackrock),最近一周喪沽三股,套現10.8億元,為今年罕有基金大手沽貨情況。

    楊龍忠劈炮 不認還須認 比亞迪創辦人「跳車」

    楊龍忠劈炮 不認還須認 比亞迪創辦人「跳車」

    【本報訊】比亞迪(1211)不認不認還須認,市場早已盛傳公司創辦人之一、副總裁楊龍忠請辭,但公司連日來都以「未收到消息」作回應。昨日比亞迪終發出公告,指楊龍忠以「業務結構調整」及「個人原因」為由,辭去所有職務,昨日起生效。

    記者:吳綺慧、石永樂

    比亞迪是在收市後才發佈此訊息,經歷里昂給予比亞迪「破產價」的風波後,公司股價昨日略見反彈,升1.7%,收報13.48元。

    里昂樂天虎:瓦解先兆
    事實上,較早前已有比亞迪員工發表微博,稱「不相信敬愛的精神領袖要離開」,令楊龍忠離職的消息,在市場不脛而走。里昂分析員Scott Laprise(樂天虎)在周二發出、指比亞迪只值0.41元的「驚嚇」報告中,亦有提及楊龍忠即將離開的傳聞,更形容這是比亞迪「瓦解」的先兆。

    Giordano: Distorted seasonality in Q3 (DBSV)


    Giordano
    BUY HK$6.42
    Price Target : 12-Month HK$ 6.90

    Distorted seasonality in Q3
    Q3 sales could fall behind on distortion from holiday season, but pickup in Oct is likely
    Margin should improve given lower input costs
    Strong share price performance lately but the counter remains our favourite on attractive yield. BUY with TP unchanged at HK$6.90.

    Holiday season differences may distort 3Q sales. With the mid-autumn festival falling at the end of September this year instead of mid-September as in previous years, sales in September have been slow so far. The relatively warm weather hasn’t helped. We believe 3Q sales in China could be quite disappointing. But with a longer golden week holiday (eight days vs seven days last year), a pick-up is likely in October. Meanwhile, Taiwan has also been slow given the weaker macro environment and impact from numerous typhoons in August. But other markets, including HK and most of SE Asia, maintained decent sales momentum. All in, we estimate 3Q overall sales growth could end up with a low single digit.

    Far East Hospitality Trust: A force to be reckoned with (DBSV)


    Far East Hospitality Trust
    BUY S$1.035
    (Initiating Coverage)
    Price Target : 12-Month S$ 1.10

    A force to be reckoned with
    • Pure exposure into Singapore hospitality sector
    • Industry leader with attractive earnings growth
    potential and acquisition pipeline that can grow
    rooms by 49%
    • Initiate with BUY, TP S$1.10 offering total  return of 12%

    Pure exposure into Singapore hospitality sector – Asia Pacific’s fastest growing tourism market. Far East Hospitality Trust (Far East H-Trust) offers investors exciting exposure to Singapore’s rapidly growing hospitality sector, which we expect to continue experiencing robust visitor growth in the coming years.

    China Banking Inflection point (DBSV)



    China Banking
    Inflection point
    • Relative performance against the HSI is at two standard deviations below mean; may be at inflection point
    • QE3 is positive for NIM and external demand
    • Upcoming leadership change is positive to macro outlook and asset quality
    • We like ABC as a laggard and non-consensus pick; We also like CCB, CNCB, and CQRCB

    Turning more positive on sector. The sector may be at an inflection point, after underperforming the market by 22% YTD. The sector’s relative performance against the HSI is now at two standard deviations below mean. We believe the sector’s declining profitability is already captured in earnings forecasts, which are being revised up after aggressive cuts earlier.

    Lower interest rate cut expectations after QE3. QE measures are being rolled out quicker than iPhone models. We believe QE3 lowers the probability for interest rate cuts in China, which is positive for NIM. Our latest house view is that there will not be further rate cuts. Earlier this year, we saw funds flow out of Chinese banking stocks as rate cuts hurt banks’ NIM but helped other industries. This trend should stabilise or reverse if rate cut expectations soften.

    NPL and credit costs should be manageable. We expect Chinese banks will only see mild to moderate NPL increases. Expected pro-growth policies after the 18th People’s Congress should bolster confidence in asset quality. QE3 also helps external demand and export related loan quality.

    Lifted earnings. We have lifted our earnings forecasts by up to 18% in the sector following post-results updates with banks. Most of our positive revisions stem from changes to NIM assumptions.

    Favour large caps ABC and CCB. We like ABC as a non-consensus laggard pick. We expect ABC to register the strongest earnings growth among large caps over 2011-2014. The bank will also benefit more than peers from expected policies to promote growth in rural China. Meanwhile, CCB replaces BOC since BOC has already outperformed.

    2Q results recap
    2Q profits were decent. Most H-share banks’ 2Q net profits met or beat market expectations. Sector NIM was largely in line, after declining from 1Q levels on stronger competition for deposits and rate liberalisation. However, fee income was generally disappointing with most banks registering qo- q declines. Meanwhile, credit costs were generally lower than expected at below 2Q11 and 1Q12 levels. However, this may not be sustainable since overdue loans had increased substantially as at June 30, 2012 compared to the start of the year.

    Overdue loans a key negative. The increase in overdue loans was the largest disappointment, in our view. Loans less than 90 days overdue had increased by 49% h-o-h, while the average overdue loan ratio had risen from 1.17% to 1.33%. The jump in overdue loans is alarming as they may be downgraded to non-performing if not repaid. Our recent checks with banks indicate the overdue loan situation has not deteriorated in 3Q12, but there is also no marked improvement.

    2Q results did not address concerns. Even though 2Q profits were better than expected, it did not ease concerns for the sector. NIM decline is unavoidable with interest rate liberalisation, but there is no convincing guidance on how large the declines would be and whether pricing of loans and deposits would stay at logical levels. The jump in overdue loans also did not bolster confidence. The sector’s 3Q results should be more telling. We can better gauge if the increase in overdue loans in 1H12 is a blip or an ongoing concern, and NIM impact after June and July’s interest rate cuts.

    A closer look at overdue loans
    CMBC and BoCom have higher NPL risks in the near term. We lack a relevant full credit cycle for reference for Chinese banks, which makes it difficult to estimate the depth of the current NPL cycle. What is easier to gauge is relative NPL risk among H-share banks. We believe CMBC and BoCom have worse NPL outlook in the near term after analyzing recent trends and data. On the flip side, we expect ABC and CQRCB to have more favorable asset quality trends. Overdue loans an indicator of NPL trend. The jump in overdue loans (less than 90 days) in 2Q was particularly worrying. Historically, there had been two periods with notable increases in overdue loans since H-share banks were listed. The first was in 1H08, and the other in 1H11. As the table below shows, new NPL formation in 2H08 and 2H11 accelerated as overdue loans from the previous period were downgraded to NPL.
    Smaller banks have more worrying overdue loan trends.

    ICBC and Minsheng Bank saw the largest increase in overdue loan ratios in 1H12. Between the two, we are more concerned about CMBC, even though ICBC’s < 90 day overdue loan ratio increase is higher. For one, ICBC has demonstrated more effective loan recovery in the past. Also, part of ICBC’s overdue loan increase was due to seasonality in its retail loan book. Meanwhile, CMBC’s new NPL formation has been more pronounced than peers even before the spike in overdue loans. CMBC is also more exposed to some of the riskier geographical areas and loan segments. Generally, we expect smaller banks to see worse NPL trends in coming months.

    Eastern China carries higher NPL risk. Banks indicate 1H12 overdue and problematic loans were concentrated in Eastern China, particularly Zhejiang Province. This is confirmed by regional NPL and overdue data of banks that do disclose this data. Key reasons include chain loan guarantees between companies, borrowers using loose available credit to expand into non-core businesses such as property, and a contraction in export demand. Based on trends seen in July and August, banks believe the NPL situation is contained within East China, and do not expect a contagion to spread to other regions.

    Bocom has largest exposure to Eastern China. We believe near term NPL risk will continue to be in the two major river deltas, given the larger concentration of export related industries there. In this regard, BoCom has the largest exposure to Eastern China, at 47% of its total loans. Other banks with large exposure to Eastern China include Minsheng (35% of loans) and BOC (33% of loans).

    Valuation and recommendation
    Turning more positive on sector. We are turning more positive on the outlook for the sector’s share prices. The sector has underperformed the market by 21% YTD, with relative performance against the HSI at two standard deviations below mean, suggesting it may have reached inflection point. There are still a lot of uncertainties in the sector, especially the pace of interest rate liberalisation and asset quality. However, the sector’s declining profitability is already captured in current earnings forecasts, which had been slashed over the past twelve months but are slowly being revised up again. Hence, we see limited downside risk to earnings, and also share prices as the sector’s valuations are very low now following the heavy de-rating. We expect the sector can catch up to the market in 4Q12 and 1Q13, driven by optimism from QE3, China’s leadership change, and positive earnings revisions.

    Softer interest rate cut expectations after QE3. We believe QE3 lowers the probability of interest rate cuts in the coming months, as policy makers monitor the QE3’s inflationary effects. Our latest house view is for no further interest rate cuts, which will benefit banks. Earlier this year, we saw funds flow out of the H-share banking shares into other industries as interest rate cuts hurt banks’ NIM but help interest burden or demand of other industries. We expect the trend to stabilise or reverse slightly with softer interest rate cut expectations. QE3 should also aid external demand, and help to stabilise ailing Chinese exports and resulting asset quality risks.

    Upcoming leadership change is also positive. The upcoming leadership change is also positive. There have been doubts in China’s policy making in the last few months of Hu Jintao’s administration. After the leadership change, we expect the new administration will roll out fiscal stimulus measures to stabilize growth. The focus will likely be on consumption, service, environmental, high tech industries. In terms of geography, Western and Central China will likely be favoured for development of rural areas.

    Lifted earnings forecasts. We adjusted our earnings forecasts for the sector following post-results updates with banks. Most of our revisions are positive and stem from changes to NIM assumptions. After meeting with the banks, we believe NIM contraction will not be as severe as feared in 2H12. We toned down our interest rate cut assumptions, and now forecast only one more interest rate cut in the next twelve months. We continue to factor in another step in deposit rate liberalisation in late 2013.

    New top picks are ABC and CCB. We continue to favour large cap banks, given uncertainties in the pace of interest rate liberalisation and China’s macro and asset quality outlook. Large caps’ NIMs are more resilient to interest rate liberalisation because of their larger retail deposit base. Large caps also have smaller concentration of loans in the two river deltas, where NPL risk is higher. We reshuffled our stock preference list, and ABC and CCB are our top picks now. Among smaller banks, we like CQRCB and CNCB. ABC is a laggard non-consensus pick. We see value in ABC following the stock’s laggard share price performance YTD. We like ABC for its stronger earnings growth and better near term asset quality outlook. We expect the bank to register the strongest earnings growth among large caps over 2011-2014. ABC’s credit cost was much higher than peers in 2011 as it needed to build up excess provisions. But as of June 2012, it has caught up and has the highest provision to NPL ratio among the Big 4 banks.

    ABC is also less exposed to Eastern China, where most of the near term NPL risk is concentrated. Instead, it has a larger exposure to Western and Central China, where there is still scope for fixed asset investments to spur growth. Policy makers will likely continue to prop up rural China development to narrow the country’s wealth gap. These factors helped ABC to register the second mildest overdue loan increase in 1H12. ABC’s retail deposit franchise in rural China also gives the bank a cheaper funding base than peers. We value ABC at 1.32x FY12 P/BV, or HK$3.8.

    CCB replaces BOC as second pick. We replaced BOC with CCB as our second large cap pick. We like CCB’s high capital adequacy, and foresee the bank will enjoy one of the highest ROEs in the sector. CCB offers stronger dividend growth prospects than BOC because the latter may need to rein in payout to build up capital. CCB also has less strategic shareholder disposal risk in the near term compared with ICBC. Thus, CCB’s share price may perform better in the near term. Our DDM-based target price is HK$6.88,
    implying 1.53x FY12 P/BV.

    ICBC has strong fundamentals. We like ICBC’s fundamentals, particularly its deposit franchise and low loan to deposit ratio. However, it is not our top pick for several reasons. ICBC’s overdue loans grew the most in 1H12 among the Big 4 banks. Although ICBC managed to control overdue loans in the past , we expect this to remain a slight overhang in the near term. We are also concerned about potential share disposal by SSF and GS. We value ICBC at 1.45x FY12 P/BV, or HK$5.69.

    CQRCB is another laggard play. CQRCB has lagged the sector since the leadership change in Chongqing. We expect Chongqing to remain a key growth driver in Western China. Thus, we still believe in CQRCB’s growth prospects. Meanwhile, CQRCB’s overdue loans and new NPL formation in 1H12 suggests asset quality is not a concern following the leadership change. We value CQRCB at HK$3.78, or 0.91 FY12 P/BV.

    China Citic Bank has cheapest valuations. CNCB is one of our preferred smaller banks, in part due to its attractive valuation. P/BV valuation is the lowest in the sector, and we like CNCB as a value play. The bank’s low provision to loan ratio remains a negative, but we believe market estimates already assume CNCB can build up its provision to loan ratio to 2.5% by 2016. Our target price for CNCB is HK$4.47, which implies 0.85x FY12 P/BV.

    BOC has already outperformed. We continue to like BOC as a defensive pick, but it is no longer our top pick. The bank’s share price has outperformed the sector since December 2011. BOC’s defensive quality stems from its smaller exposure to onshore loans, which may be less of a concern if we do see a turnaround in China’s macro outlook after the upcoming leadership change. In addition, we suspect the bank’s dividend payout ratio may be at risk. BOC’s capital position will be borderline under the new capital rules if it cannot adopt internal ratings based methodology to calculate credit risk weighted assets. However, we expect the bank to continue to target growth in absolute dividend per share. Our new  target price is HK$3.62, which implies 1.03x a FY12 P/BV.

    Less favoured stocks
    CMB’s rights issue in jeopardy. We have become less upbeat on CMB’s share price outlook, mainly because it may be short of capital. The window for completing CMB’s proposed rights issue is closing. CMB’s A-share price is only 29% and 6% above the audited book value of Rmb7.65 as at 2011 and the estimated book value of Rmb9.34 at end 2012. A-share rights need to be priced at a substantial discount, but at the same time cannot go below the bank’s latest audited book value. CSRC has been delaying the approval of CMB’s H+A-share rights issues amid weak market conditions in the A-share market.

    The bank may explore other methods to build up capital if the rights issue fails to materialise. Alternative measures may include limiting asset growth and new share placement to strategic investors or major shareholders. All options will be less attractive than a rights issue from the perspective of minority shareholders. Thus, we believe CMB will underperform peers until there is more clarity on the bank’s capital roadmap. We took out the rights value in our DDM for CMB, resulting in a lower target price of HK$14.85, or 1.3x FY12 P/BV.

    Wary of BoCom’s East China exposure. BoCom is our second least preferred H-share bank. We are wary of the bank’s large exposure to the Yangtze River Delta, which has higher NPL risk in the near term than other regions. 47% of BoCom’s loans are in Eastern China, much higher than peers’ 22% to 35%. BoCom’s valuations are cheap, which is why we are retaining our Buy call, but they are not the cheapest in the sector. And we believe BoCom will underperform the sector in the coming months, until Eastern China’s NPL overhang is resolved.

    CMBC. China Minsheng Bank is our least preferred H-share bank, in part due to its higher asset quality risk. The bank saw the largest jump in overdue loans in 1H12. CMBC also is more exposed to Eastern China and property developer loans than peers. As such, we believe CMBC’s bad debt risk will be higher than peers in an economic downturn. The bank’s capital is also borderline, and it may need new equity. We would be more optimistic on CMBC’s outlook if China’s macro outlook improves; credit cost, loan demand, and loan pricing will improve in an economic recovery scenario.







    Source/Extract/Excerpts/来源/转贴/摘录: DBS Vickers Research
    Publish date: 25/09/12

    美国已推出QE3,股市将会如何?


    美国已推出QE3,股市将会如何?
    文: 林伟杰 (译:杨佳文) 2012年09月24日 展望
    在美国于9月14日推出第三轮量化宽松政策(QE3)后,大部分指数都上升,仅上证指数除外。海峡时报指数自9月7日起上升了2.2%。海指近期内的主要阻力位是在其曾四次上探的3,085-3,088点。若海指突破此阻力位,其接下来的阻力位将为3,120-3,125点。

    图表1:各大指数在过去两周的表现

    资料来源:彭博社;作者汇编

    SingTel: Share sale minor hiccup (OCBC)


    SingTel:
    Fair value
       S$3.61
    add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.16
    versus: Current price  S$3.20
    12m total return forecast  18%

    Share sale minor hiccup (OCBC)
    • Temasek selling 400m shares
    • Temporary knee-jerk reaction
    • Adding value to mobile business

    Temasek Holdings has entered into an agreement to sell 400m shares in SingTel as part of its portfolio rebalancing, likely done at S$3.20 each according to newswires, or 3.9% discount to Tuesday’s S$3.33 close. As expected, the news resulted in a negative knee-jerk reaction, causing SingTel’s share price to open some 5.1% lower at S$3.16. But we believe that investors should not read too much into the share sale. Instead, we continue to like its defensive business and relatively decent dividend yield of ~5%. Maintain BUY with an unchanged S$3.61 fair value.

    The Battle Goes On: Thai Bev Set to Push F&N Offer

    China Merchants Bank: Key Takeaways From Company Visit (UOBKH)

    China Merchants Bank
    Share Price HK$12.64
    Target Price HK$12.00
    Key Takeaways From Company Visit

    What’s New
    • We recently visited China Merchants Bank (CMB) in Shenzhen.  In general, we believe the pending rights issue is the key overhang to both share price and business growth of the bank, in addition to the weakening macro outlook.  We highlights the key takeaways as follows.

    Essentials
    • Rate cut impact will mostly be reflected in 2013.  Our discussions with the bank reaffirmed our view that the full impact of rate cut will be reflected in 2013.  As majority of the loans will be re-priced in early-13, we expect the NIM decline to be more severe in 2013 vs 2012.  As such, we maintain our forecast with NIM contraction of 3bps yoy in 2012F and 28bps yoy in 2013F.

    Far East Hospitality Trust: Largest pure Singapore hospitality REIT (OCBC)


    Far East Hospitality Trust:
    Fair value  S$1.08
    add: 12m dividend forecast  S$0.06
    versus: Current price  S$1.04
    12m total return forecast  10%

    Largest pure Singapore hospitality REIT (OCBC)
    • Pure Singapore hospitality play
    • Strong sponsor
    • Clear and sizable pipeline

    Far East H-Trust's portfolio consists of 11 properties in Singapore, including seven hotels and four serviced residences, giving a total of 2,531 rooms/units. The trust has the largest diversified hospitality portfolio in Singapore by asset value, equaling S$2.14b. With a mix of hotels and serviced residences, the portfolio is able to ride on the up-cycle in the hotel industry, while the serviced residences would provide downside protection during economic slowdowns.

    K-REIT Asia: Clocking K-angaroo miles (CIMB)


    K-REIT Asia
    Current S$1.19
    Target S$1.23
    Clocking K-angaroo miles

     A 50:50 debt-equity funded acquisition of a Perth office development could be accretive though mainly through cheap S$ debt. Accretion is offset by a resultant higher gearing. The longer lease provides visibility but could limit upside from a buoyant Perth office market. 

    We tweak our DPUs by -0.3/+0.8%, fine-tuning our assumptions and assuming a 50:50 debt-equity funded acquisition. Our DDM target prices rises slightly because of these changes and the rollover of our target price. Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform given the limited upside. 

    Wilmar International: Joint venture with Kellogg (Phillip)


    Wilmar International
    Target Price (SGD) 3.29
    - Previous Target Price (SGD) 3.45
    Closing Price (SGD) 3.24
    Expected Capital Gains (%) 1.5%
    Expected Dividend Yield (%) 1.1%
    Expected Total Return (%) 2.7%

     Wilmar International Limited is Asia’s leading agribusiness group. Its business activities include oil palm cultivation, oilseeds crushing, edible oils refining, sugar, specialty fats, oleo-chemicals and biodiesel manufacturing and grains processing. 

     Joint venture with Kellogg Company
     Share buyback supporting share prices
     Maintain Neutral with new fair value of S$3.29

    Office REITS: Rental declines likely slowing in 3Q12 (OCBC)

    Office REITS: Rental declines likely slowing in 3Q12

    • Rental decline likely slowing in 3Q12
    • Limited supply till 2H13
    • Maintain OVERWEIGHT


    Due to limited supply coming online and better than expected demand, we believe office fundamentals are more benign than expected. In our view, office rentals are likely to show a more subdued dip in 3Q12 after three consecutive quarters of declines since 3Q11. In addition, core CBD vacancies also showed a reversal from a rising trend in 2Q12 to register a 0.9 ppt dip to 8.4%, and expect a similar trend for vacancies ahead. Note that since our upgrade of Office REITs to OVERWEIGHT on 21 Aug 2012, our top pick CCT has appreciated 4.0% versus the STI’s 0.2% gain. Maintain OVERWEIGHT on Office REITs. Our top picks in the sector are CCT [BUY, FV: S$1.53] and FCOT [BUY, FV: S$1.23].

    Office rentals decline likely to slow in 3Q12
    We believe the office rentals are likely to show a more subdued dip in 3Q12 after three consecutive quarters of declines since 3Q11. Over 2Q12, Grade A office rentals fell 4.7% QoQ to S$10.10 which cumulated in an 8.7% decline over three quarters. Core CBD vacancies, however, showed a reversal from a rising trend in 2Q12 to register a 0.9 ppt dip to 8.4%. A similar picture was seen for island-wide vacancy rates which declined 0.9 ppt to 6.4% (end 2Q12) from 7.3% (end 1Q12). We expect a similar trend for vacancies in 3Q12 which would likely contribute to a muted rate of rental decline.

    First Real Estate Investment Trust: How will First REIT deal with higher risk of buying new properties in the future?

    26/9/2012 – The manager of First REIT says it is buying two new properties in Sulawesi, Indonesia, from its sponsor, Lippo Karawaci.

    It will buy an integrated hospital and hotel in Manado, North Sulawesi, and a hospital in Makassar, South Sulawesi - for a combined S$143 mln.

    Investor Central. We ask the questions that need to be asked

     1. How will First REIT deal with higher risk of buying new properties in the future?

    With First REIT owning mostly mature hospitals, future acquisitions would be mainly hospitals with shorter operating track records from its sponsor Lippo Karawaci.

    Felda Global: Promising long-term growth (MIDF)


    Felda Global: 
    Price (21 Sept ‘12)  RM4.90 
    Target Price  RM5.27 
    Promising long-term growth  

    On 21 September 2012, we attended a meeting with FGV‘s management team. The discussion was rather fruitful as it sheds additional light on the company’s long-term growth potentials. We nonetheless maintain our NEUTRAL recommendation on FGV with TP of RM5.27, derived from sum-of-part valuation. 

    •  Earnings disappoint in 1HFY12.  Earnings of most plantation companies have been depressed so far this year due to, (i) lower FFB from tree stress effect, coupled with (ii) subdued CPO prices. FGV’s 1HFY12 earnings came in below our expectation and we attached low likelihood for the full year number to achieve our earlier target.

    F&N: Thai Bev consortium rejects capital reduction proposal (DMG)


    F&N: Thai Bev consortium rejects capital reduction proposal
    The news:  Thai Bev and TCC Assets, the Thai consortium that is currently in the midst of making a takeover offer for F&N, has indicated that they will be voting against a proposed capital reduction of $4bn at the EGM tomorrow. The capital reduction plan is effected through a cancellation of a third of F&N’s outstanding shares at a price of $8.50/share. Funding from the capital reduction would have come from the $5.6bn of proceeds that F&N would receive from the sale of its 39.7% stake in APB to Heineken.    

    Our thoughts:  The announcement by the Thai consortium effectively canned the proposed capital reduction by F&N as the capital reduction needs to be approved by 75% of voting shareholders. The Thai consortium holds a combined stake of 30.6%, which is sufficient to block the capital reduction. By rejecting the capital reduction, the Thais are indicating that they prefer to keep the proceeds from the sale of APB within F&N, at least for the time being.

    Temasek To Reduce SingTel Stake

    26 SEPTEMBER 2012
    Temasek To Reduce SingTel Stake
    By Dow Jones Newswires

    Singapore state-investment firm Temasek Holdings is seeking to raise up to US$1.34 billion through the sale of shares in Singapore Telecommunications (SingTel), part of a broader effort by the sovereign wealth fund to shift its investments toward emerging markets.

    Temasek, the world’s ninth-largest state investment firm according to the Sovereign Wealth Fund Institute, has been expanding its footprint in China and shelling out for energy and resources assets, and away from Singapore and mature-market financial services. It also wants to book gains from its previous investments.

    The company is offering 400 million shares in SingTel, southeast Asia’s biggest telecommunications company by subscribers, in a range of $3.20 to $3.25 each (US$2.61 to US$2.65), or a discount of 2.4 percent to 3.9 percent from Tuesday’s closing price of $3.33, according to a term sheet seen by Dow Jones Newswires. Temasek has the option to sell an additional 100 million shares if the demand is strong, which would increase the deal size up to US$1.34 billion and be equal to 3.1 percent of Temasek’s stake in SingTel, according to the term sheet.

    Kellogg Inks Joint Venture with Wilmar to Expand Snack Business in China


    25 SEPTEMBER 2012
    Kellogg Inks Joint Venture with Wilmar to Expand Snack Business in China
    By Dow Jones Newswires

    Kellogg Company has agreed to a joint venture with Wilmar International for the manufacture, sale and distribution of cereal and snacks in China as the US company looks to expand in the fast-growing snack foods market there.

    “China’s snack-food market alone is expected to reach an estimated US$12 billion by year-end, up 44 percent from 2008,” Kellogg Chief Executive John Bryant said. “This joint venture positions our China business for growth and fundamentally changes our game in China.”

    Kellogg noted that China is expected to become the largest food and beverage market globally within the next five years. It said cereal consumption is currently being driven by rapid growth in milk consumption, along with consumers’ desire for healthy and convenient breakfast foods, while snack foods also represent a very large growth opportunity.

    曾淵滄專欄 28.09.12: 有心人放料挾淡倉

    曾淵滄專欄: 有心人放料挾淡倉 - 曾淵滄

    恒指前日急跌171點,昨日急升234點,走勢與滬綜指一模一樣,西班牙傳來的不利消息全被拋到一邊。

    滬綜指急升是因為市場傳來一則好消息,說中國政府將出招救市,只靠一則傳聞就可以炒起股市?或許更多是因為滬綜指已經跌得太多,有人放消息挾淡倉。說中央救市也絕對錯不了,過去一周,我不斷地說中央一定會放水,問題只是甚麼時候,所以呼籲大家耐心等待。

    近來藍籌地產股中,恒地(012)升勢最佳,恒地的前途與新界東北的發展息息相關,因為恒地是新界大地主。較早前,特區政府的新界發展藍圖,是由政府出資買下地產商的農地,然後政府主導整項發展。但是,因為新界東北發展遇上巨大阻力,政府很可能改變模式,採取與地產商合作發展。

    友邦8.5億進軍斯里蘭卡


    友邦8.5億進軍斯里蘭卡
    【本報訊】友邦保險(1299)昨宣佈,購入斯里蘭卡第二大壽險公司Aviva NDB Insurance(ANI),並與NDB簽訂20年的獨家銀行保險協議。友邦是次斥資1.09億美元(約8.502億港元)的收購,亦意味着其進軍亞洲區第16個市場。

    購ANI九成股權
    據友邦公告表示,友邦將購入ANI的92.3%股權,餘下的7.7%股權將繼續在當地的可倫坡交易所進行買賣。友邦首席執行官兼總裁杜嘉祺表示,斯里蘭卡的經濟正在高速增長階段,加上ANI的二哥地位,相信對友邦於當地發展非常有利,希望日後友邦可發展成當地的領導地位。


    對於斯里蘭卡的保險業發展前景,友邦於公告表示,當地去年的國內生產總值增長8%;於2010年,當地僅得11%人口有保險保障,而壽險的複合年均增長率達16.2%。受惠收購消息刺激,友邦股價昨升2.12%至28.85元收市。事實上,市場一直有傳,專注亞洲業務的友邦,希望擴大其業務版圖,更指友邦對ING亞洲業務虎視眈眈,有意斥億60美元(約468億港元)收購。

    德銀唱好領匯 料受惠最低工資


    德銀唱好領匯 料受惠最低工資

    【本報訊】低薪打工仔受惠於調高最低工資,德銀亦預期領匯(823)同樣可受惠,原因是調高最低工資後,料光顧領匯旗下租客的消費者,其消費能力將提高,令領匯租金有強勁增長潛力。

    該行將領匯目標價大幅調升33.9%至40.76元,繼續給予「買入」評級。

    德銀昨發表報告,指若調升最低工資議案順利通過,明年5月起全港33萬打工仔將會受惠,可獲加薪7%,預期旗下租客的客人消費力將增加,對租客生意起正面作用。該行即時將領匯明年全年收入預測提高4.6%至66.02億元。

    公屋客消費力被低估
    報告特別指出,市場普遍低估資助房屋(公屋、居屋)住客消費能力,但其實這些住客的住房負擔反較私營房屋住客低,願花費更多在日常生活用品上,亦能對領匯租客構成強勁支持作用。領匯租金收入中,25%來自餐飲、24%來自超市及食品店,該行認為受經濟波動的影響亦較小。

    A股现时是否捞底好时机?


    A股现时是否捞底好时机?
    http://paper.wenweipo.com   [2012-09-28]

    黄敏硕 康宏证券及资产管理董事
     上证指数今年表现不济,曾失守2,000点关口,而上证指数现时的市盈率已降至约11倍,远低于过去10年平均的24.2倍,估值甚为吸引,亦成为投放A股的一大推动力。奈何,早有评论提及A股估值便宜,这已非一日之事,惟内地股市久久未能展现持续的反弹,市场慢慢对其失去信心,尤其是当地的资本市场仍在发展中,零售投资者也较多。
    回报不济削弱投资者信心

     中登公司数据显示,截至9月21日止,A股帐户持仓比例只有约33.6%,至5,612万户,数字与年初的5,681.4万户相差不远,但若考虑到年初34.9%的A股持仓比例,就或多或少反映到,投资者对A股的信心未有明显的改善。无他的,企业盈利受累外贸及经济放缓,A股年内反覆下挫,当局纵使放宽银根,也未能阻止经济放缓的势头,加上有不少新股的定价过高,亦良莠不齐,面对投资气氛下滑,引致回报甚为不济,也削弱投资者的信心。

    海通国际荐吸内银股

    海通国际荐吸内银股
    http://paper.wenweipo.com   [2012-09-28]    
     香港文汇报讯 (记者 马子豪) 海通国际(0665)环球投资策略董事潘铁珊表示,十八大后将有利好经济消息出台,认为当前吸纳内银的时机,其中较看好工行(1398)及民行(1988),前者取其贷款业务庞大,如内地减息及降低存款准备金率可利好贷款业务;而民行市帐率仅0.8倍,估值便宜。

     此外,他亦看好本地地产股,其中太古地产(1972)租金回报理想,以及旗下四个内地商场项目将在未来3至7年逐步浮现价值。

    A股年底前仍有10%上升空间
     内地A股昨日突涨修复部分失地,潘铁珊续表示,今年底前A股仍有10%上升空间。他又指,内地欲催谷消费,可从A股着手。他解释,因A股市场以散户为主,占比达九成之多,股市升跌及所投向的资金,直接影响其日常消费支出。

    张化桥:A股只值1000点

    张化桥:A股只值1000点
    http://paper.wenweipo.com   [2012-09-28]    
     香港文汇报讯  沪指近日在2,000点附近徘徊,慢牛投资公司董事长、前瑞银分析员张化桥本月23日出席陆家嘴一个活动时表示,他觉得A股大概只值1,000点,「我从来没有买过一张A股,我做了十几年,我研究A股但是从来不买,因为我怎么也算不过这个账来,到今天也是如此。我是买香港股票的。」

    研究A股十多年 从没买过
     张化桥指,中国股市去年表现是全世界最差的,但是股市还是全世界最贵的。「为什么?我先把银行和两油拿掉。当然他们也是很贵的。我们看到大量的股票是10-30倍的市盈率。我们的IPO现在还发二三十倍,那些公司资产质量和估值是有问题的。我怎么看股票的估值呢?」

     他认为实际上估值就是两种方法,先说简单的方法。中国的市场利率大概是6%,再加上风险溢价3%,基本上8%,留空前1/3,股市每年提供的年回报率要12%左右,因此A股的合理市盈率在8-10倍的区间。第二个方法是计股息率,内地一年期存款利息是3%,就以3%为回报率,若公司值20倍市盈率,年回报就应是5%,但中国公司现金息率大概是不到1%,对比3%的合理值,即是20倍市盈率降至7倍才叫合适。

    「調整上揚股」——中國平安



    「調整上揚股」——中國平安
    普遍大行對中國平安(2318)抱持樂觀態度,由於上半年業績較預期弱,純利按年增長9%至140億人民幣。正面因素有包括,產險盈利貢獻強勁,保費按年上升20%,當中有逾半成來自電話營銷和交叉銷售,同時償付能力由去年同期166%上升至177%。

    不過,新業務價值(NBV)按年跌9%,遠遜市場預期;銀行業務資產質量出現惡化,逾期償還債務大幅上升;受多次減息影響,淨利息收益率面臨進一步收窄壓力。由於新業務7月份已見改善,料下半年將續改善。因此相繼調整其目標價,給予最高的是瑞銀的74.26元,給予最低則為花旗及豐的72元。

    集團公布,4間子公司中國平安人壽保險、中國平安財產保險、平安健康保險及平安養老保險截至今年8月底首8個月,原保險合同保費收入分別為918.97億元(人民幣.下同)、646.64億元、1.46億元及41.7億元;去年同期分別為861.74億元、539.14億元、7,705萬元及36.32億元,同比分別增長6.64%、19.94%、90.05%及14.82%。今年1至8月,4家子公司原保險合同保費收入合共為1,608.78億元,較上年同期增長11.88%。

    跌多了就會漲

    跌多了就會漲
    繼前天市場在盤中跌穿了2,000點整數關口後,昨日大盤隨即便出現了絕地反擊的走勢格局,頗有點對2,000點整數關口形成不破不立的行情。截止到收盤,上證指數最終大幅上揚逾52點以一根大陽線報收。日K線圖上已經連續穿過5天、10天均線的壓制,且一度衝擊20天均線。成交量明顯放大,達到了603億元,但相對前期9月7日那根長陽來說,還是遜色不少。既然市場出現了如此犀利的走勢,如何看待昨日這種反彈行情呢?

    筆者認為,昨日市場的反彈,應該從多個角度去進行考慮:首先,大盤在2,000點附近形成不破不立的局勢,昨日大幅度飆升,當前漲幅已經達50點有餘,日K線上呈現一根大陽線,且成交量也隨之放大,特別是板塊當中的石化雙雄、煤炭、金融等大盤藍籌股拔地而起,支撐市場強勢走強。這種爆發性的反彈行情,透露出市場階段性見底訊號,反彈具備持續性。

    其次,市場在昨日受到了多重利好的刺激,對市場的超跌反彈構成積極影響。如央行27日開展了500億元14天逆回購操作與1,300億元28天逆回購操作。央行周二已通過逆回購投放了2,900億元的流動性,因此如果央行本周後續不再進行其他操作,將實現資金淨投放3,650億元。本周淨投放創歷史單周投放之最,季末放水相當於降準。另外,9月26日晚間,三十餘家創業板公司幾乎同時發布了關於不減持公告,這三十多家創業板公司要麼承諾2012年年內不減持,要麼追加股份鎖定。打消了因為創業板解禁潮襲擊市場的擔憂,以及1.65萬億險資或將進入股市,9家機構獲首批入場券。

    建銀﹕內地富客減 港零售增長微


    建銀﹕內地富客減 港零售增長微
    2012年9月28日
    【明報專訊】雖然內地訪港旅客人數持續增加,但建銀國際分析員認為對本地零售業的幫助未必大,因為富有人士已轉移到歐洲等地旅遊,大額交易料繼續減少,預計今年黃金周只會為零售業帶來低單位數的同比銷售增長。

    建銀國際消費行業研究部董事陳兆昌表示,該行人員分別向約7間位於本地及新加坡的5星級酒店詢問未來一周入住情,發現前者的平均入住率僅八成左右,但後者卻近爆滿,可見高購買力人士已轉移到香港以外地區消費。

    客源轉變 利莎莎卓悅

    另外,消費行業研究部高級分析師程惠嫻稱,近年訪港旅客中,即日往返的遊客增長最快,他們主要來自廣州、深圳等靠近香港地區,通常以購買化妝品及其他必需品為多,顯示來港購物的客源已結構性轉變。

    四叔李兆基去年百億增持恒地


    四叔去年百億增持恒地
    計及股息已返家鄉
    2012年9月28日
    【明報專訊】早前逆市上升的地產股,昨日隨大市繼續抽升,恒地(0012)及新世界發展(0017)續創52周新高。恒地主席李兆基去年曾豪擲100億元,以每股58元增持恒地,昨日恒地升至56.65元,與當時行使價只差2.3%,若計入所收股息,更已返回家鄉。「四叔」今年多番呼籲大家買地產股,現時似乎印證他所言非虛。

    曾多番建議買地產股

    去年4月,恒地股價做好時,四叔斥資100億元行使約1.724億份認股權證,行使價58元較當時價格高出6%。可惜增持後,恒地股價便一直向下走,直至今年才回升。昨日升2.35%至56.65元,已較去年增持時的股價高。雖然股價還未返家鄉,但連同該批股份至今收取的每股1.7元股息,四叔已收回成本。

    iPhone5 內地遇冷 反應遜4S

    iPhone5 內地遇冷 反應遜4S
    滬水貨商﹕跌價近三成 一日賣不出一部
    2012年9月28日
    【明報專訊】蘋果iPhone手機在內地有成千上萬忠實「果粉」,果粉為嘗鮮直接推高本港過往幾代iPhone的回收價。iPhone5推出之初,本港也曾勁炒,惟一個星期不到,回收價已大幅回落,這主要由於內地對iPhone5的嘗鮮式需求未如預期般強勁。上海有手機水貨店主稱,iPhone5港版水貨價已由首日的9300元(人民幣.下同),急跌至目前的6800元。折合11,400港元降至8500港元。跌價速度超過業界預期。目前一個店舖每天賣不出一部iPhone5,而兩年前iPhone4初期每日最少可以賣5至6部。

    位於上海市長壽路上的大奧通訊商城,是上海規模最大的手機商城,為市區多個通訊城供貨,形式類似本港的先達廣場。商城內一位銷售iPhone5的檔主表示,9月21日iPhone5在香港正式推出的當天晚上,首批iPhone5已抵達上海,但貨量很少,每個商戶僅可拿到一兩部,當時售價是一部16GB的要9300元人民幣(約11,300港元)。「主要是國慶送送禮,一般不會自己用。」但熱潮不到一周,價格已大跌,昨日商場內各店中,現在最便宜僅賣6800元(約8400港元)。

    Warren E. Buffett(沃伦•巴菲特)
    Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful
    别人贪婪时我恐惧, 别人恐惧时我贪婪
    投资只需学好两门课: 一,是如何给企业估值,二,是如何看待股市波动
    吉姆·罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)
    “错过时机”胜于“搞错对象”:不会全军覆没!”
    做自己熟悉的事,等到发现大好机会才投钱下去

    乔治·索罗斯(George Soros)

    “犯错误并没有什么好羞耻的,只有知错不改才是耻辱。”

    如果操作过量,即使对市场判断正确,仍会一败涂地。

    李驰(中国巴菲特)
    高估期间, 卖对, 不卖也对, 买是错的。
    低估期间, 买对, 不买也是对, 卖是错的。

    Tan Teng Boo


    There’s no such thing as defensive stocks.Every stock can be defensive depending on what price you pay for it and what value you get,
    冷眼(冯时能)投资概念
    “买股票就是买公司的股份,买股份就是与陌生人合股做生意”。
    合股做生意,则公司股份的业绩高于一切,而股票的价值决定于盈利。
    价值是本,价格是末,故公司比股市重要百倍。
    曹仁超-香港股神/港股明灯
    1.有智慧,不如趁势
    2.止损不止盈
    成功者所以成功,是因为不怕失败!失败者所以失败,是失败后不再尝试!
    曾淵滄-散户明灯
    每逢灾难就是机会,而是在灾难发生时贱价买股票,然后放在一边,耐性地等灾难结束
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