Saturday, June 30, 2012

《私募英雄》连载:李驰-去快乐投资(9)

《私募英雄》连载:去快乐投资(9)

发布时间: 2011-4-20 16:01:00
来源: ChinaVenture  
作者: 周涛 孙健芳 赵娟

天道酬勤,这是许多人信奉的人生准则。但在投资上,这句话却被李驰所摒弃。

  因为简单,所以快乐,这才是李驰的投资之道。

  李驰说,以前有人要送他一幅“天道酬勤”字,他没有接受。在李驰的观念里,投资需要的是眼光,是一种智慧和艺术。长线投资完全不需要太频繁、太勤快的操作。根据一两天的涨跌来判断下一步如何应对,那是短线投机者的事。从这一点意义上来说,愈勤效果反而愈差。对资金管理者来说,压力也太大。所以李驰更愿意做一个轻松快乐的投资者。

进军刚果准备攫取庞大商机 马熔锡此举实属明智

进军刚果准备攫取庞大商机 马熔锡此举实属明智
二零一二年六月三十日

(吉隆坡30日讯)大马熔锡机构有限公司(MSC,5916,工业产品组)参与在刚果民主共和国一家熔锡厂的经营,这标志着其首度进军赚钱的采矿业务。

该集团最近收购了一家在刚果的熔锡公司股份,但有分析师说,其真实意图是攫取有利可图的采矿特许权。

侨丰证券研究行在最近的投资报告中指出:“此次收购将有助马熔锡稳定自己在正确的位置上,以在不久的将来从刚果政府手中赢取任何潜在采矿特许权。这对集团盈利和估值方面将会是更加丰厚的。”

歐盟峰迴路轉‧全球市場歡慶

歐盟峰迴路轉‧全球市場歡慶
Created 06/30/2012 - 17:01

(德國‧法蘭克福、紐約30日訊)歐盟峰會超乎預期地出現重大突破,在歐債有解下,全球股匯與商品市場歡聲雷動。

原本一般認為不會有任何實質結果的歐盟高峰會,週五在經過挑燈夜戰後出現令人驚喜的突破性成果,包括同意歐盟紓困機制直接挹注銀行,以及進入市場買進公債。

市場相信這些措施有助穩定西班牙與意大利等南歐大國的財政與金融情勢,進而對歐債危機形成緩解的作用。

歐債有轉機.游資再回流‧綜指有望寫新高

歐債有轉機.游資再回流‧綜指有望寫新高
Created 06/30/2012 - 17:06

展望

歐盟高峰會結果令人驚喜,帶動歐美股市上週五全數暴漲,加上早前集中在聯土全球(FGV,5222,主板種植組)上市案的市場游資重新歸位,本週馬股有望進一步改寫歷史新高。

不過,隨一些市場專家認為馬股已經超買,不排除套利活動緊隨來臨漲勢,對綜指短期成長動力造成一定侵蝕。

分享锦集:怎样跟进企业进展●冷眼

分享锦集:怎样跟进企业进展●冷眼
Created 06/30/2012 - 12:27

买股票就是买公司的股份。买股份就是买公司的一部分业务和资产,叫投资。

投资的成败,决定于公司的成败,不是决定于股市的起落。

只要公司盈利越来越高,你的股份就会越来越值钱,你的财富也会与日俱增。

所以,买进股票之后,你应该关心的,是公司业务的进展,不是股价的起落。

羅傑斯:儘管歐盟達成協議 問題恐更惡化

羅傑斯:儘管歐盟達成協議 問題恐更惡化
鉅亨網編譯郭照青  2012-06-30
歐盟領袖達成了一項協定,允許使用歐元區紓困基金,直接為艱困的銀行業挹注資金。儘管市場對此表示歡迎,但著名投資人羅傑斯(Jim Rogers)告訴CNBC說,此一行動完全無助解決該地區最大問題,即高額的債務。

「只因為有一種方式,能讓銀行業借得更多資金,並無法解決問題,這只讓問題更加惡化,」羅傑斯於周五說。


「民眾需要停止花費非屬自己的資金。高債務的解決方案,不應是更多的債務。這項協定只是讓銀行業有機會擁有更多的債務,且時間更久一點,」他補充道。

财经追击 2012 pisode 11--24.06.2012 (Strategy for 2012 H2 & Share Buyback)


首半年涨幅居中 马股上涨空间受限

首半年涨幅居中 马股上涨空间受限
Created 06/30/2012 - 12:30

(吉隆坡29日讯)亚洲股市第二季表现低迷,拉低2012上半年整体表现,菲律宾傲视群雄,半年涨幅高达20%!泰国和印度紧追在后,而在第二季逆势上扬的马股,首半年涨幅则处于中段班。

市场分析员普遍预计,马股上半年的转弱趋势会延续至第三季,在本地和外围因素双面夹攻下,马股上涨空间较有限。

根据《南洋商报》统计整理,首半年亚股波动不已,大部分股市无法承接第一季的优越表现,纷纷在第二季走低,仅有菲律宾、印度、中国深圳和马股免于陷入跌势。

PhillipCapital Weekly Market Watch 29.06.2012



发展商竞相抢滩

发展商竞相抢滩
Created 06/29/2012 - 15:56
随着二桥竣工在即,沿着第二槟城大桥两旁有许多大大小小的产业发展项目,如雨后春笋般崛起。

而且,根据本报的观察,这一带除了有好几个大型发展商进驻,更多小型发展商也来抢滩,有些产业发展项目是几个小型发展商联合发展的。

当中,竞相涌往威省发展的发展商还包括IJM置地(IJMLand)、双威集团(Sunway Group)、玮力产业集团(Ivory Property Group)和龙凤置地(DNP Land)等等。

Market Outlook For 2H12

30 JUNE 2012
Market Outlook For 2H12
By Charlie Lau Suan Liat
Technical review

Half way through 2012 saw the Dragon in this year’s horoscope got stuck in a hole – half in, half out. December 30, 2011 The Straits Times Index [STI] was 2646 points. June 29, 2012, The STI was 2878 points – up 232 points or 8.8%. The STI high for the first half of this year was 3033 points and hovering around this level from February to April. Then May saw the STI plunged more than 330 points on fears of the euro financial crisis – or is it?

渣打银行:估价太高 马股评级低于大市

渣打银行:估价太高 马股评级低于大市
Created 06/30/2012 - 11:22
(吉隆坡29日讯)尽管下半年的大马股市走势不错,但因为估价太高,渣打银行给予马股“低于大市”的评级。

渣打银行首席投资策略师史蒂夫布莱斯指出,“我们预料亚洲股市将继续抗跌,下半年的表现整体向好,所以我们决定给予低于大市的评级。”

除了估价太高,大马政治局势也会影响下半年的走势。

“我不确定未来会否有促使我们改变评级的理由,但我们很关注大马全国大选的进度,这是左右局势的关键。”

黄国英:港股现粉饰橱窗行情 出手权重股

黄国英:港股现粉饰橱窗行情 出手权重股
作者:黄国英 来源:腾讯财经

作者简介:黄国英为香港证监会持牌人士,拥有超过20年投资经验,并为香港著名股评人及基金经理,现担任丰盛融资资产管理部董事。

  近日中,有不少个股走势均大幅转弱,当中各有原因:例如中小型股中,真明丽(1868)公布全年业绩,受原材料成本上涨,影响毛利率急跌,又有汇兑亏损等项目,全年蚀14.3亿元,连派息都取消,股价当然随之大跌,当天便跌了11%,是三年多以来的新低。然而体积较大的股份,也不能独善其身,有部份甚至是整个板块一同下跌。例如澳门博彩股,在早前有股东大手减持时,已经有一段风声鹤唳,但当时板块整体还是有力一守;可是昨天一传出内地可能收紧前往澳门旅游的限制,严格执行手续,加上银联会同时收紧在信用卡的海外签帐,该板块的投资者终于变得极为恐慌,昨天整体下跌4-5%不等。至于潜伏多时的海外独立「研究加作空」机构,又再乘市跌出击。这次出手的机构名为Citron,虽然不及浑水(Muddy Water)闻名,但过去也多次扳倒在美国上市的中国企业。这次受攻击的不是三、四线细价股,而是有头有面的恒大地产(3333)。虽然公司已就报告内容多次澄清,但仍是未能令投资者完全释怀,公司股价与报告发表前相比,低了一成有多。

中信证券:A股结构性机会值得把握

中信证券:A股结构性机会值得把握
2012-06-29 03:19:17 来源: 上海证券报

中信证券研究人员认为,中国经济的内外需环境再次面临艰难局面。就国内而言,他们判断。以开放垄断管制领域和金融改革为核心内容的新一轮经济改革大幕已经拉开。同时判断,中国经济回升在即。预计二季度GDP增长7.8%,为全年低点,下半年将回升至8%以上,全年GDP增长8.3%。政策刺激是经济回升的关键因素,下半年政策刺激效应将能逐步显现,内需将有所改善,投资成为稳增长的中流砥柱,出口有望温和增长。工业企业盈利在二季度后开始回升,预计全年增长10%。

与此同时,国内通胀回落仍将持续。预计6月开始CPI将在3%之下运行,四季度略有回升,预计全年CPI为3%,PPI为-0.4%。

Pimco’s El-Erian: Rally From European Bailout Reform to Be Short-Lived

Pimco’s El-Erian: Rally From European Bailout Reform to Be Short-Lived
Friday, 29 Jun 2012 10:47 AM
By Forrest Jones

tocks worldwide rallied on news Europe took surprisingly concrete measures to battle its debt crisis, which is now more than two years old.

At a European Union summit, leaders agreed to allow rescue funds to stabilize bond markets without forcing countries in compliance with EU budget rules to accept added austerity measures.

Furthermore, policymakers allowed the continent's bailout fund, the European Stability Mechanism, to directly recapitalize banks, which won't swell national debt burdens by funneling bailout money straight to banks.

股票未存入CDS‧聯土全球散戶“甜頭”吃不到

股票未存入CDS‧聯土全球散戶“甜頭”吃不到
Created 06/30/2012 - 14:18

(吉隆坡29日訊)大馬最受矚目的上市計劃――聯土全球(FGV,5222,主板種植組),首日登場以溢價75仙大唱豐收並為投資者帶來可觀回報,但部份投資者似乎感受不到“甜頭”,因配股並未存入中央存票系統交易戶頭(CDS)。

雖然聯土全球上市計劃反應熱烈,但一些投資者“苦水”不斷,除之前引起的配股不均質疑,現又有部份投資者投訴,獲得的配股未存入CDS戶頭。

據悉,受影響的投資者主要為國際貿易及工業部批准的土著投資者。根據聯土全球,貿工部獲分配4億1千954萬股或佔聯土全球首次公開售股計劃的11.5%。

Property stocks: Slowing demand, sales the real worry now

At the start of the year, stocks of property developers were weighed down by the threat of more measures to cool the Singapore housing market. It was only last December that the government had imposed an additional stamp duty equal to 10% of the property value on foreigners buying private homes.

As a result, even as sales volumes and prices of private homes continued to climb to new highs, stocks of developers started to fall after hitting a peak in February. Now, stocks of developers such as CapitaLand and Overseas Union Enterprise (OUE) are trading at a discount of 39.8% and 47.4% to their revised net asset values respectively.

Global markets: China is best bet in Asia for 3Q2012, says ABN Amro’s Daphne Roth

Daphne Roth, ABN Amro Private Bank’s Singapore-based head of Asia equity research, heaved a sigh of relief when Greece’s conservative New Democracy party won the June 17 parliamentary elections. Like investors and market watchers the world over, Roth had feared that a victory by the anti-austerity Syriza party would pave the way for the debt-stricken state to be forced out of the eurozone and trigger a run on European banks that could create another global financial storm.

“We were relieved,” she says in an interview with The Edge Singapore, noting an outflow of funds from stock markets to less-risky assets in eight of the 10 weeks leading up to the polls. With uncertainties over the outcome of the elections over, Roth, together with her colleagues at the private bank’s global research and strategy team, has put together an investment guide to help its high-net-worth clients navigate through 3Q2012.

恒指失守萬九點 期待七一有好消息

希臘國會選舉消息雖利好大市,但恒指升近一萬九千五百點時遇阻力。上周聯儲局會議只宣布延長扭曲操作,不提QE3,其後美國公布經濟數據欠佳,加上包括滙豐(0005)等十多間國際金融機構被穆迪調低評級,恒指上周五跌穿一萬九千點,全周下跌約二百四十點。市場人士預期,後市反覆偏軟,視乎國家主席胡錦濤七一訪港,有沒有利好措施公布。

騰祺基金管理投資管理董事沈慶洪表示,近期主板成交額偏弱,令港股向上動力不足,加上散戶買牛證博反彈積極,不排除有「劏牛」的情況,令後市再試低位,預期恒指本周在一萬八千五百至六百點徘徊。近期新股市場轉旺,但他不建議散戶沾手,反而可多留意防守性股票,如股價仍硬淨的領匯(0823)和置富產業(0778)。

汇金增持银行股之谜 工行股价异动引发猜想

汇金增持银行股之谜 工行股价异动引发猜想
http://www.sina.com.cn
2012年06月30日 08:23
华夏时报微博
  本报记者 钱秋君 北京报道

   在A股市场中,“白菜价”似乎已经成为银行股的代名词,尤其在交行、华夏、深发展、浦发等4家银行相继破净之后。“巨人”史玉柱(微博)6月初在时隔8个月后再度增持民生银行(5.99,0.12,2.04%)H股,也让不少投资者觉得已到了“捡便宜”的时候。

   然而利率市场化拉开序幕,让“靠利息吃饭”的银行们不再“高枕无忧”,雪上加霜的是,支撑银行暴利的信贷扩张在经济下行中也尽显疲态,如此一来,银行的盈利能力备受考验。

罗杰斯:投资中国股市要跟着中国政府走字号

罗杰斯:投资中国股市要跟着中国政府走字号
2012年06月12日01:19 来源:每日经济新闻

人们在谈论吉姆·罗杰斯(JimRogers)时,总忘不了他和中国之间的不解缘分。比如,罗杰斯早在1999年就开始投资中国B股,至今还持有;又比如,他的两个小女儿都上华语学校,未来希望找个中国女婿。

  但在经历了中国股市数年来的牛熊浮沉后,这位亿万富豪现在还看好中国股市吗?上周末,在《水晶球2》的新书发布会上,罗杰斯给出了他的答案。

中資股盈利趨悲觀

中資股盈利趨悲觀

《信報》信筆攻略:......
國企指數走勢持續疲弱,近日更無力攀上10天線,失守9300點水平的話,將再進一步尋底。其次,近日股價見52周新低的股份數目不斷增加,煤炭等資源股外,還有機械設備股如濰柴(2338)、龍工(3339)、東方電氣(1072),還有問題股如雨潤(1068)、味千(538),以及跌極未完的體育零售股如安踏(2020)、中國動向(3818)等。各類股份當中,股價的低迷意味着什麼?前兩者反映宏觀需求疲弱,即使是4至5月重推「鐵公基」項目後,生產鏈上的需求叫市場恢復信心。至於問題公司跌完再跌,很大程度反映投資者對中資股的重新審視,過去幾年大賣的增長故事,甚至有效的銷售模式,均面臨住一個轉捩點。不過,投資者先沽為上,更大程度預示了投資者對中資股盈利前景的悲觀。

A股上半年玩过山车 市场期待七翻身我的搜狐

A股上半年玩过山车 市场期待七翻身我的搜狐
搜狐微博
2012年06月30日

“轻舟已过半重山,收益坐上过山车”。

  2012年上半年行情已结束,A股经历了一场“过山车”行情,从年初2132点低点到6月29日2188点低点,涨幅寡淡,几可忽略不计。但参与者的心态不会平静,因为2012年上半年,既让投资者感受了“金改”股的疯狂暴涨,也让投资者再度领教银行股、石油巨头的跌跌不休。

  在5月、6月接连下跌的情况下,即将到来的七月的能否出现翻身行情?这也是市场所期待的重要阶段性机会。然而,回溯历史,“七翻身”似乎多数时候都不是大行情开端,而只是超跌后的反弹。

欧盟焦点转移,市场仍感不安 (奥兰国际)

欧盟焦点转移,市场仍感不安 (奥兰国际)
文: 编辑团队 2012年06月29日 市场分析
希腊大选结果在2012年6月18日公布,而随着新总理萨马拉斯(Antonis Samaras)就职,国家面对的政治危机暂时稳定下来。接着受到市场触目的国家是西班牙,它的10年期政府债券收益率越过了7%。与此同时,联邦储备局决定把其“扭曲操作”计划延长,让其所持的国债资产的期限继续得以延长。

本地方面,1Q12的失业率微升至2.1%,由于服务业的就业数字放缓,而4月份的零售数字也比市场预期来得低。

奥兰国际(Olam International)的股价早前跌至3年来低位,但公司在上周宣布回购股票计划后股价回弹。可是,当公司的财务总监宣布辞职后,股价的升幅收窄。另一方面,云顶新加坡(Genting SP)在决定投资于澳洲的Echo娱乐公司后,股价跌至2011年10月以来的低位。

曾渊沧:内房股可作长期投资

曾渊沧:内房股可作长期投资
作者: 来源:中国证券网 2012-06-25

希腊国会选举第二次投票总算有了结果。支持继续推行紧缩政策的保守政党胜利。

  不过,因为前一个星期股市已经回升,所以这项好消息并无法为市场带来另一轮巨大的上升动力。市场的焦点马上转到6月20日美国联储局的议息,市场也相当憧憬联储局会推出QE3,结果又失望了。唯一的安慰奖是即将于本月底到期,推行了一年的扭曲操作(OT)会延续至今年年底,这至少可以保证未来半年美国不论长期利率或短期利率都会处于超低水平。

  没有QE了,市场自然失望,不过,没有QE3,中国政府再放松银根的机会就大一些,因此,一失可能还一得,也不必太失望。

港股半年升5%僅次美股

港股半年升5%僅次美股
2012年6月30日
【明報專訊】港股踏入次季之後,表現反覆向下,歐洲債務頻臨「爆煲」邊緣,而內地經濟放緩亦未見底。大市氣氛臨近季末,與去年12月淡靜的市相似。雖然年初至今,港股的表現不遜於環球主要股市,半年來上升5.5%或1007點,較美國道指、英國富時100指數及法國CAC指數為佳。不過,恒指的升幅主要靠首季拉動,今年首季升2121點至20,556點,但次季則跌1115點,將首季的升幅消耗逾半。

歐盟4招醫「豬瘟」

歐盟4招醫「豬瘟」
歐盟首日峰會結束,面對歐債危機先後導致五個歐元國尋求援助,四面受敵的德國終讓步,歐元區領袖同意採取短期措施壓低意大利和西班牙債息,容許救市基金歐洲穩定機制(ESM)直接注資銀行,又否決西銀援助貸款的優先償債權,及同意加快成立單一銀行監管機構,消息帶動歐豬國債孳息急速回落。

千二億歐元催谷經濟
首日峰會經過近14小時磋商後,歐元區領袖發表聲明表示,有迫切需要打破銀行和主權國之間的危險循環關係,會趕於今年底前研究成立單一銀行監管機構,之後ESM可直接用於銀行資本重組。歐盟競爭事務專員阿爾穆尼亞表示,ESM最快明年一月一日起直接注資銀行,而歐央行將成為歐元區銀行業監管機構。

Chok足半年 8成散戶輸

Chok足半年 8成散戶輸
上半年最後一個交易日,全球股市於歐盟峰會取得進展下「食尾胡」,當中滬綜指及恒生指數急漲1.35%及2.19%,不但打破「六絕」魔咒,恒指上半年更累漲1,007點或5.46%。不過,中港股民依然「無錢賺」,本報網上調查顯示,上半年逾八成受訪者虧蝕逾一成,內地則有逾50%股民慘蝕逾30%。

滬綜靠尾彩 半年升1%
歐盟同意透過歐洲穩定機制(ESM)注資銀行,同時中證監主席郭樹清重申對內地藍籌股信心未變,滬綜指結束「七連跌」,昨急漲1.35%,收報2,225點,創近一個半月最大單日漲幅,深成指則漲1.25%,收報9,500點。儘管滬深兩市「臨尾發威」,然而滬綜指半年僅漲1.18%。

吉姆-罗杰斯:欧盟协议未解高债务问题

吉姆-罗杰斯:欧盟协议未解高债务问题
http://www.sina.com.cn 2012年06月29日 18:00
新浪财经微博
  新浪财经讯 北京时间6月29日下午消息,欧盟领导人同意直接使用救助基金对受困银行进行资本重组,尽管这提振了市场,但知名投资者吉姆-罗杰斯向CNBC表示,此举并未帮助解决该地区最大的问题:高债务水平。

  罗杰斯周五称:“现在你找到一种方法使银行能够获得更多资金,这不是在解决问题,而是使问题更严重了。”

  他补充称:“人们需要停止花费不属于他们的钱。解决债务过多的办法是更多的债务。所有这些小协议的内容就是使银行能够持有更多一些债、持有更久一些债。”

德讓步准ESM注資歐銀

德讓步准ESM注資歐銀

歐盟首日峰會結束,面對歐債危機先後導致五個歐元國尋求援助,四面受敵的德國終讓步,歐元區領袖同意採取短期措施壓低意大利和西班牙債息,容許救市基金歐洲穩定機制(ESM)直接注資銀行,又否決西銀援助貸款的優先償債權等。

首日峰會經過近十四小時磋商後,歐元區領袖發表聲明表示,有迫切需要打破銀行和主權國之間的危險循環關係,會趕於今年底前研究成立單一銀行監管機構,之後ESM可直接用於銀行資本重組。

歐盟競爭事務專員阿爾穆尼亞表示,ESM最快明年一月一日起直接注資銀行,而歐央行將成為歐元區銀行業監管機構。

歐債危機持續 應客觀分析

歐債危機持續 應客觀分析
G20峰會較早前閉幕,歐元區首次承諾通過實行財政結構整合措施,實現財政及經濟一體化,令部份國家借貸成本可以持續。市場正留意着6月28、29日舉行的歐盟峰會(執筆之時尚未有結論),了解歐元未來方向,並知會否推行短期刺激措施。筆者相信峰會內推出短期刺激政策的機會偏低,即使有短期刺激計劃,投資市場亦要待有長期方案才真正解決債務危機。

歐元一旦崩潰,將面臨另一危機。強國貨幣如德國馬克便會以極強勢姿態重現,重挫德國貿易出口。而弱國則面臨貨幣大幅貶值的情況,影響亦大。為避免危機出現,歐洲各國實行緊縮政策在所難免,但當中卻遇龐大阻力。

港股六未絕半年漲半成

港股六未絕半年漲半成

上半年最後一個交易日,全球股市於歐盟峰會取得進展下「食尾胡」,當中滬綜指及恒生指數急漲1.35%及2.19%,不但打破「六絕」魔咒,上半年恒指更累漲1,007點或5.46%。不過,中港股民依然「無錢賺」,本報網上調查顯示,上半年逾八成受訪者虧蝕逾一成,內地則有逾50%股民慘蝕逾30%。

滬綜止跌 恒指漲416

歐盟同意透過歐洲穩定機制(ESM)注資銀行,同時中證監主席郭樹清重申對內地藍籌股信心沒有改變,滬綜指結束連續七個交易日跌勢,昨日急漲1.35%,收報2,225點,創近一個半月最大單日漲幅,深成指則漲1.25%,收報9,500點。儘管滬深兩市「臨尾發威」,然而滬綜指半年來僅微漲1.18%。

High-dividend equities preferred

The Star Online > Business
Saturday June 30, 2012
High-dividend equities preferred

KUALA LUMPUR: In an environment where the global economy is expected to “muddle through,” high-dividend equities are the favoured option for better returns and to enhance investors' income.

According to Standard Chartered (StanChart) chief investment strategist for consumer banking Steve Brice, high-dividend equities tend to outperform in low-growth environment.

Starhill REIT revalues The Residences

The Star Online > Business
Saturday June 30, 2012
Starhill REIT revalues The Residences

KUALA LUMPUR: Starhill REIT (real estate investment trust) has carried out a revaluation of The Residences which is housed under its portfolio of assets to comply with Clause 10.03 of the Securities Commission’s REIT Guidelines.

The trust told Bursa Malaysia that the revaluation had been carried out by Azmi & Co Sdn Bhd, an independent professional valuer, on June 8 and would increase the net asset value per unit from RM1.151 to RM1.155 per unit after incorporation of a revaluation surplus of RM5mil.

穆迪:未来12至18个月 全球航空业展望保持稳定

尽管燃油成本居高不下,全球经济展望也疲弱,然而国际信用评级机构穆迪(Moody’s)认为,全球航空业在未来12至18个月的展望仍将保持稳定。

  穆迪投资者服务公司在其最新的年度报告中指出,燃油价格居高不下,全球经济环境又充满不稳定性,将会令航空业的营运盈利增长受到局限。

  不过由于欧洲的航空公司受到疲弱的环境因素所困扰,亚洲航空公司也面对激烈的竞争,因此北美及中东的航空公司仍可有一定的盈利增长。

欧盟利好消息推动股市

欧盟峰会出现峰回路转,各成员国就欧元区一体化路线达成一致,并同意由纾困基金对银行业直接注资。市场原本对这次峰会推出重要措施不抱希望,这突如其来的利好消息推动区域股市全面上扬,昨日海峡时报指数也攀升31.63点。

  欧盟各国领导人在布鲁塞尔进行的漏夜激辩,最终各国就总值1200亿欧元的“一揽子”刺激经济增长计划达成共识。

  此外,欧洲联盟主席范龙佩宣布,将于今年底之前建立起涉及欧洲央行在内的单一监管机制,以打破银行业与政府之间的“恶性循环”。

建議派息振興市場 海鷗股價攀高12仙

(吉隆坡29日訊)海鷗集團(HAIO,7668,主要板貿易)積極改變行銷策略奏效,傳銷業務盈利回彈,加上宣佈派息建議,今日該股股價受追捧,早盤一度飆升20仙至2.28令吉。

 該股今日以2.10令吉報開,揚2仙,爾后股價節節走高,不過,休市時,漲幅收窄至11仙,報2.19令吉,交投48萬3800股。

 午盤時,該股繼續走揚,登上十大上升股榜。

 艾芬證券研究指出,自直銷法令于2010年4月實施后,公司傳銷業務大受衝擊,每季營業額從約1億令吉,滑落至2670萬令吉。

STI ends first half with gains despite rocky Q2

STI ends first half with gains despite rocky Q2
by Pamela Koh Updated 07:42 PM Jun 29, 2012
SINGAPORE - The Singapore market ended the first half of the year on a positive note despite a dismal April to June quarter.

Despite lingering concerns over the European debt crisis, the key Straits Times Index gained almost 9 per cent over the six months ended Friday. It suffered a 4.4 per cent loss for the second quarter, South-east Asia's worst.

The benchmark index rose 1.1 per cent to close at 2,878.45 points on Friday.

Stocks, euro surge on EU deal

Stocks, euro surge on EU deal
Euro zone agrees on bank recapitalisation without adding to government debt
04:46 AM Jun 30, 2012
LONDON - World stock markets rose sharply yesterday after European leaders unexpectedly reached a deal aimed at staunching an escalating financial crisis among the 17 countries that use the euro.

The accord, hammered out on the final day of the European Union summit after tough all-night bargaining that ended at 4.30am yesterday in Brussels, paves the way for recapitalising banks directly with euro zone bailout funds, bypassing national governments.

StanChart: Bursa set to perform better in second half

StanChart: Bursa set to perform better in second half
By Rupa Damodaran
bt@nstp.com.my
2012/06/30

KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysian equities are likely to perform better in the second half of the year, although the Standard Chartered Bank (StanChart) favours bourses in China and South Korea as its top Asian choices.

StanChart chief investment strategist Steve Brice described the Bursa Malaysia as underweight versus its Asian counterparts.

路透社:油价未来两年每桶不到100美元

(新加坡路透电)路透社调查显示,有越来越多的分析师认为未来两年平均油价将不到每桶100美元,有关中期经济增长的隐忧超过石油供应疑虑。
  这项月度调查的31名受访者中,有12名预估2013年布兰特原油均价将为每桶100美元或更低。

  22名分析师中,有九名预估2014年布兰特原油均价为100美元或更低。

  这次调查反映出分析师看法与5月时大不相同。当时仅有五名分析师预估均价为100美元或更低。2013年油价最低预估数字是Nomisma的79.30美元,最高是巴克莱预估的125美元。

Airbus A380 spearheads MAS fleet rejuvenation

Airbus A380 spearheads MAS fleet rejuvenation
By June Ramlee
june@nst.com.my
2012/06/30

BY the end of this year, Malaysia Airlines will have one of the youngest fleets among carriers in the whole of Southeast Asia, with aircraft not more than seven years old.

MAS group chief executive officer Ahmad Jauhari Yahya said this was largely contributed by the 17 new aircraft that it plans to get by year-end which includes six A380s.

銀行組聯盟方向未明

拆局
銀行組聯盟方向未明

今次歐盟峯會首日會議後,各國領袖交出的共識,表面上聽來像是利好消息,諸如允許 ESM直接重組銀行資本,以及取消 ESM對西班牙債務的優先債權人地位等,都起碼能為西班牙及意大利兩歐豬國帶來直接幫助,兩國債息亦即時回落。

ESM下月9日營運

不過,據歐洲理事會主席范龍佩( Herman Van Rompuy)的報告看來,會上對將來所承諾的一切框架和共識,其實相當模糊。目前最大隱憂是 ESM根本未存在,包括德國在內的多個成員國議會表決延期,已令原定於7月1日正式營運的 ESM,推遲至7月9日。

歐峯會派糖全球升市

歐峯會派糖全球升市
直接救銀行 意西最受惠

【本報綜合報道】為期兩日的歐盟峯會周四於比利時布魯塞爾展開,歐盟領袖首日角力14小時後達成共識,為歐債困局帶來新進展。歐盟同意設立單一監管機構管理歐元區銀行,允許金融穩定機制( ESM)向銀行直接注資協助重組;同時擺平向西班牙銀行提供貸款的各國政府,不享有優先償債地位,並提出靈活使用 EFSF和 ESM穩定各國金融市場。

消息刺激歐元最多曾升逾2%,至1.2693美元。銀行股全線飆升,歐洲多間大行股價普遍升逾5%至7%;英、法、德股尾段升2%至4%。意大利及西班牙10年期債息顯著回落,其中西班牙10年期債息昨在歐股早段曾跌55點子,創去年12月以來最大跌幅,最新報6.445厘;意大利10年期債息亦曾跌至5.874厘;被視為避風港德國10年期債息則升至1.62厘。

中港概念股炒唔起

逆市回落
中港概念股炒唔起

中央公佈前海有關政策,但早前中港兩地熱炒的前海概念股,在昨日大升市中反高潮回軟,認真失威。其中華南城(1668)逆市跌1.7%,而深圳控股(604)亦只微升0.55%;之前在內地股市中借前海概念炒起的深圳地產股沙河股份和華聯控股更分別倒跌3.9%和1.3%。

蓝筹大变样 滙控股价衰过15年前

蓝筹大变样 滙控股价衰过15年前
http://paper.wenweipo.com [2012-06-30]

 香港文汇报讯 (记者 周绍基)总结上半年,表现最好的蓝筹依次为腾讯(700)、新世界(017)及中海外(688);表现最差的为联通(762)、中煤(1898)及神华(1088)。但在15年前,上述六只股份中只有新世界是蓝筹,其余5只中资股份还未来港,甚至还未「出生」。

上市公司15年增近2倍
 15年前的港股,上市公司数目只有619家,当前已增至1644家,增加1025家或近2倍。中资股当年占港股比重不足一成,至今无论市值或成交,已占超过五成。从恒指的变化,更可了解15年间的巨变,当时33只蓝筹中,只有中信泰富(267)及粤海投资(270)为中资股,而且还是红筹,H股尚未面世。当年蓝筹中,有14只涉及地产行业,而最大市值的四家公司:滙控(005)、恒生(011)、长实(001)及和黄(013),被股民戏称为港股「四大天王」。

美9行交「遺囑」大限到

美9行交「遺囑」大限到
針對金融機構「大得不能倒」問題,美國監管機構要求大銀行訂立俗稱「遺囑」的應變方案,闡明危機爆發時,迅速及有秩序的拆骨破產計劃,當中九家規模最大銀行提交「遺囑」期限七月一日屆滿,但各界對措施成效毀譽參半。

難杜絕「大得不能倒」
根據一○年《多德─法蘭克金改法案》,資產規模500億美元或以上的銀行須向聯邦存款保險公司(FDIC)及聯儲局提交「遺囑」,以防○八年九月雷曼兄弟倒閉後,美國政府被迫用公帑打救銀行的情景重演。九家規模最大銀行分別是來自美國的摩根大通、花旗、高盛、摩根士丹利和美國銀行,以及德意志銀行、巴克萊、瑞信和瑞銀。其他規模較小銀行期限較長,最遲明年底全部到期。

港股接大禮ETF內地掛牌

港股接大禮ETF內地掛牌

儘管國家發改委指前海政策不涉及港股直通車,但昨日仍有惠及港股的措施,包括兩隻港股ETF獲批內地上市,以及首隻使用人民幣合格境外機構投資者(RQFII)額度的A股ETF亦獲批在港上市;中證監亦指會研究降低來港上市企業規模的要求。有業內人士認為措施對港有利,但亦有分析指短期內未必見效。

簡化粵企來港上市

證監會昨公布,認可首隻RQFII A股ETF於港交所(00388)上市,證監會資料顯示,該ETF為ChinaAMC CSI 300 Index ETF(83188),由華夏基金管理,該基金經理可使用RQFII額度直接投資A股。

港股收復10天線

港股收復10天線
【本報記者徐慧敏報道】歐盟峰會傳來好消息,中央「七一送禮」陸續落實,半年結基金「粉飾窗櫥」,多重利好消息下,港股收升416.19點或2.19%,報19,441.46點,重上10天線(19,215點),成交亦回升至507.9億元。

恒指半年累升逾千點
恒指半年累升1,007點或5.46%,經歷「五窮」蒸發2,465點或11.68%,「六絕」似乎並未應驗,6月反彈812點或4.36%。因3G業務新用戶增長放緩,聯通(0762)未能擺脫首季頹勢,上半年表現墊底藍籌股,累跌39.8%。而新世界(0017)谷低反彈,由去年表現第三差的藍籌股變為上半年表現最佳的藍籌股,累升46.27%。

若美推QE3 金價有機會挑戰2000美元

若美推QE3 金價有機會挑戰2000美元
美元領風騷 商品幾全挫
歐債危機升級,加上全球經濟走下坡,令到資金湧入被視為資金避難所的美元以及美股。美元在上半年盡領風騷,商品價格幾乎全線下挫,其中在衰退風險大增下,紐約期油更急挫超過兩成,成為各類投資品種的大輸家。至於一直與美元走勢背馳的金價,在今年二季度的表現,更錄得8年以來表現最差的一個季度,不過,有分析預期,倘若美國推出QE3(量化寬鬆措施),金價有機會再次挑戰每盎司2,000美元。

【本報記者雷文報道】由歐洲到中國,全球經濟在上半年有明顯放緩迹象,促使投資者選舉美元等資產避險,令到與經濟敏感度極高的資源股下挫,其中紐約期油以及布蘭特期油分別下挫21.48%以及14.38%,顯示投資者對於歐美經濟復甦,並未感太過樂觀。

德罕有讓步 背後3玄機

德罕有讓步 背後3玄機
德國突然讓步,令峰會意外取得突破,但德國於會前還堅拒各項短期措施,為何數小時內態度大逆轉,相信與意大利及西班牙立場極強硬有關。

一直以來,只要大財主德國企硬,各國便無計可施,今次意西兩國卻改變策略,以硬碰硬,特別是意大利,總理蒙蒂會前已和德國總理默克爾隔岸開火,揚言不惜日以繼夜延長會議,也要談出成果。

意西強硬 威脅否決增長協議

允直接救銀行 解歐債死結

允直接救銀行 解歐債死結
經過近14小時的馬拉松會議,歐盟首日峰會終通過振興經濟方案,並在部分敏感議題上取得共識,包括容許歐洲穩定機制(ESM)直接拯救銀行,有助暫時紓緩市場情緒。但在壓低意大利及西班牙債息這個短期目標上,各國仍未取得進展。

各國今次能夠成功達成多項共識,主因意西兩國態度強硬,以拒絕簽署落實歐盟總值1,200億歐元的振興經濟方案作要脅,終於迫使德國讓步。根據方案,歐盟將大幅提升歐洲投資銀行(EIB)的借貸能力,並試行推出歐盟項目債券,更會出資協助中小企及刺激青年就業。

首日峰會喜出望外 歐美股飈

首日峰會喜出望外 歐美股飈
風險資產全綫炒高 歐元逼1.27
歐盟首日峰會傳來好消息,德國突然立場軟化願出手救市,令市場喜出望外,風險資產全綫報升,歐股勁升4%,歐元大幅反彈2%,逼近1.27美元,西意債息明顯回落。美股也不例外,道指早市大升逾200點。

道指午市勁升逾220點

由於歐洲領袖同意推出短期措施,包括以歐洲穩定機制(ESM)直接拯救銀行,以及採取措施遏抑西意債息,兩國10年期債息顯著回落,西債息大降60點子,低見6.288厘,意債息更跌至6厘以下,跌約40點子至低見5.753厘。

西債暫時遠離7厘警戒綫,總算令市場鬆口氣。風險市場得以一洗頹勢,展開「報復式反彈」。歐元勁升2%,高見1.2693美元,德法股市大升4%,西意股市亦升約5%。

BlackBerry 10再延推 RIM岌岌可危

BlackBerry 10再延推 RIM岌岌可危
首季勁蝕40億 市值僅及高峰期5%
黑莓製造商Research In Motion(RIM)首季虧損擴大至5.18億美元(約40.4億港元),收入亦大跌43%,更再次延遲發布新手機BlackBerry 10至明年初。

種種壞消息令公司股價再跌19%,市值不足40億加元,只剩高峰時期逾840億加元的5%。分析師普遍相信,RIM目前情況如同垂死掙扎,前景不甚樂觀。

RIM近季業績每況愈下,繼前一季為7年來首次見紅,虧蝕1.25億美元後,本財年首季(截至6月初)的虧損更高達5.18億美元,相對去年同期的6.95億美元盈利,可謂相形見絀。

Too Early to Tell If Europe Problems Over: Pro


The Bailout Bull Market


What Airline Stocks are a ‘Buy’ for Investors?


The Truth Behind 'Buy and Hold'


創富激發點》施俊威:憧憬下半年減息推介內銀 20120629


LIGHTNING ROUND: Market uncertainty could last years


Firms in China Eager for More Easing Measures


《創富激發點》陳偉聰:醜股七月大翻身 20120628


Italy and Spain Are Too Big to Fail: Economist


Where Fund Managers Invest During a Slowdown


《創富激發點》施俊威:歐盟峰會德國終肯讓步?


Gross: U.S. Still 'Cleanest Dirty Shirt'


葛洛斯:債務危機遺害數十年

葛洛斯:債務危機遺害數十年
中央商情網-2012年06月28日

中央社台北2012年6月28日電)全球最大債券基金PIMCO創辦人暨共同投資長葛洛斯表示,在歷經一場債務危機蹂躪後,全球經濟和金融市場須歷時數十年才能恢復正常,因此投資美國債券仍是最安全的賭注。

葛洛斯(Bill Gross)在發布於PIMCO官網的投資前景月度報告中表示,要徹底解救一場全世界都歷經且真正的債務危機,只能靠違約或不斷印鈔票這種通膨的方式將債務消除掉。葛洛斯寫道,美國公債市場被投資人公認為是最乾淨的「髒衣服」。

葛洛斯又寫道:「不要在債務危機時減持美國債券。投資人在尋求資金避風港時會發現,其實美國擁有具深度、流動性且等級接近Aaa的債券和證券市場。」

U.K. Banks under Pressure


Friday, June 29, 2012

魯比尼睇死歐峰會嘥氣

魯比尼睇死歐峰會嘥氣

歐盟峰會昨日揭幕,市場觀望峰會成果之際,「末日博士」魯比尼先行潑冷水,斷言峰會不會達成具體救市措施,因為核心國家和邊緣國家的信任關係已蕩然無存,又警告若與會領袖無法就重大措施如歐聯債達成協議,歐債危機將失控。

默克爾救市立場軟化

英國《金融時報》引述消息稱,德國總理默克爾對快速救市措施立場軟化,增加就容許歐洲金融穩定機制(EFSF)買入意西國債,以及透過結構投資工具(SIV)注資西銀達成協議的機會。

海通:港股估值吸引宜入市

海通:港股估值吸引宜入市
http://paper.wenweipo.com [2012-06-29]

 香港文汇报讯(记者 周绍基)中央挺港惹憧憬,令恒指重上19,000点。海通国际(0665)环球投资策略董事潘铁珊展望,下半年港股会再下试18,000点,才会上试22,000点。他指出,近期港股弱势,已令多个板块估值处吸引水平,他看好本港大蓝筹及红筹股,包括控(0005)受惠亚太区增长强劲,及成本控制理想;中移动(0941)发展4G网络,预计第四季开通,两者估值均吸引,当前是入市良机。

 他又推荐新地(0016),指股价已回落至吸引水平,港交所(0388)受惠与内地紧密合作,若回落至100元可作中线投资,长实(0001)及和黄(0013)受旗下长建(1038)买英国资产支持,都是值得留意股份。此外,虽然内房股续受压,但他仍看好,因为宏观环境改变,信贷已经有松动,息口成本低企下对内房股将有支持,他推荐龙湖(0960)、润地(1109)、保利(0119)及恒大(3333)。

市场信心弱 A股七连跌

市场信心弱 A股七连跌
http://paper.wenweipo.com [2012-06-29]

香港文汇报讯(记者 裘毅 上海报道)市场信心疲弱,上海A股第七个交易日连续下跌。隔夜欧美股指收涨,令沪深A股昨日小幅高开,但全日冲高乏力,午后沪指跳水击破2,200点整数关,收盘上证综指报2,195点,跌0.95%,成交503亿元(人民币,下同),较上日增50亿元;深证成指收报9,383点,跌0.35%,成交563亿元。

季末资金紧绌 沪指穿2200点

 分析人士认为,季末资金面紧绌是大市走势疲弱的主要原因,当前未有利好政策出台,市场持续观望,预计二季度末股指或再现阶段性低点。

World stocks, euro surge after surprise EU summit deal

LONDON: World stock markets rocketed on Friday, propelled by bank shares, and the euro surged against the US dollar after an EU summit delivered surprise emergency measures to fight the eurozone debt crisis.

Thye Madrid and Rome markets were the biggest gainers after emergency aid to crisis-hit Italy and Spain was announced following marathon talks at a summit to save the ailing single currency.

And interest rates on Spanish and Italian 10-year bonds dropped on the easing debt concerns.

Eurozone-seals-grand-bargain-to-help-Italy-and-Spain

BRUSSELS - Leaders from the 17 countries that share the embattled euro sealed a dramatic deal Friday to allow emergency measures to aid crisis-hit Italy and Spain, as well as provide billions to boost the economy.

Following tense talks that stretched into the early hours, EU president Herman Van Rompuy told reporters a "real breakthrough" had been struck to calm financial markets and reshape the eurozone to prevent the crisis recurring.

European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso hailed a "very ambitious decision that shows once again the commitment of the member states ... to the irreversibility of the euro and I think this will be recognised by all."

The accord paves the way for the eurozone's 500-billion-euro ($630 billion) bailout fund to recapitalise ailing banks directly, without passing through national budgets and adding to struggling countries' debt mountains.

国信证券何诚颖:松绑基金和QFII A股危中现机

国信证券何诚颖:松绑基金和QFII A股危中现机
2012年06月25日15:51 来源:和讯股票

上周大盘四个交易日当中,除周一收阳上涨外,其余三天均阴线下跌,大盘延续疲软。6月20日,证监会就《证券投资基金管理公司管理办法》(下称《管理办法》)及其配套细则的修订草案、《关于实施<合格境外机构投资者境内证券投资管理办法>有关问题的规定》(下称《QFII办法》)公开征求意见,正式发布实施《证券投资基金运作管理办法》(下称《运作办法》),有关部门负责人对拟修改《基金管理公司特定客户资产管理业务试点办法》(下称《专户办法》)及其配套规则的情况进行了介绍。证监会的这些措施有助于场外资金入市,将对A股产生重要影响。

令吉新元最亮眼 渣打:宜趁低買亞洲貨幣

(吉隆坡29日訊)渣打銀行指出,亞洲貨幣匯率已跌至去年下半年低點,貨幣弱勢正提供投資者買入機會,以受惠于長期架構優勢。

 另一方面,受歐盟峰會結果影響,投資者焦點轉向亞洲,亞洲新興國家貨幣今日普遍獲投資者追捧,其中令吉和新元匯率升值幅度最亮眼。 

 令吉兌美元今早開市報3.1935/1955,比較昨日閉市匯價為3.1955/1985。

 渣打銀行在下半年投資策略報告指出,亞洲貨幣匯率如今已跌至去年下半年低點,由于實際回酬正面,亞洲貨幣估值看來處于合理水平。

重大突破!歐洲推一體化金融監管機制 大幅提振市場情緒

重大突破!歐洲推一體化金融監管機制 大幅提振市場情緒
鉅亨網陳律安 綜合外電  2012-06-29

歐盟主席范龍佩週五向記者表示,歐洲將提案對於銀行系統建立單一監管機制。

范龍佩指出,歐洲銀行業現在可能將能夠接受直接注資,而直到該歐洲穩定機制(ESM)成立前,金援仍將由歐洲金融穩定設施(EFSF)提供。

貸款將從 EFSF 轉至 ESM,而債務的到期日將不變。

范龍佩表示:「打破銀行及主權債務間的惡性循環相當迫切,我們希望委員會在年底之前,以緊急事件來考量這項提案。」

中行:再次降息可能性很大

中行:再次降息可能性很大
http://www.sina.com.cn 2012年06月29日 01:42 中国证券网-上海证券报
  ⊙记者 周鹏峰○编辑 邹靓

  中国银行(2.82,0.01,0.36%)国际金融研究所昨日发布的三季度宏观经济金融展望报告预计,下半年还有1-2次降低存款准备金率的可能,再次降息的可能性也很大,三季度月均新增贷款预计在6500亿左右,全年新增约8.2万亿。

  虽然当前市场流动性不是很紧,降低了近期央行降准的必要性和可能性,但中行研究报告预计,调降存准率的可能性依然存在。因为随着利率的降低,热钱倾向于外流;同时,随着人民币汇率升值预期的减弱、FDI以及外贸顺差的减少,外汇占款很可能继续减少;且随着宏观政策的预调微调,宏观经济可能从三季度开始企稳回升,对流动性的需求将不断增大。

Muhibbah ‘surprised’ by CIMB move

Muhibbah ‘surprised’ by CIMB move
In The Edge Financial Daily Today 2012
Written by Chua Sue-Ann of theedgemalaysia.com
Friday, 29 June 2012 17:00

KUALA LUMPUR: Muhibbah Engineering (M) Bhd was surprised by CIMB Bank Bhd’s move to withdraw from backing a restructuring scheme of troubled Asia Petroleum Hub Sdn Bhd (APH), said its managing director Mac Ngan Boon.

Mac said CIMB Bank’s withdrawal has brought Muhibbah back to the drawing board to recover at least RM399.5 million owed to it for subcontract works performed. Also, the bank’s unexpected move has dashed Muhibbah’s plan to hold an equity stake in APH.

Management to explore KLCCP REIT

Management to explore KLCCP REIT
In The Edge Financial Daily Today 2012
Written by Ben Shane Lim by theedgemalaysia.com
Friday, 29 June 2012 17:00

KUALA LUMPUR: With Over RM13.3 billion of prime Kuala Lumpur real estate, KLCC Property Holdings Bhd (KLCCP) could be repackaging the assets under a real estate investment trust (REIT) structure.

KLCCP announced yesterday that its board had instructed management to explore a corporate structure of a REIT in order to optimise shareholder value.

YTL Corp a regional powerhouse

YTL Corp a regional powerhouse
In The Edge Financial Daily Today 2012
Written by theedgemalaysia.com
Friday, 29 June 2012 17:00

YTL Corp Bhd (June 28, RM2)
Initiate buy with target price of RM2.44: After a lacklustre performance in CY11, YTL Corp’s stock hit an inflection point at the start of this year, fuelled by the positive response from investors towards the recent privatisation of its subsidiary YTL Cement Bhd, which led to improved free float of YTL Corp shares and an increase in the stock’s weightage on the MSCI Asia ex-Japan Index to 2.2%.

1600關口站不住‧馬股上半年揚4.47%

1600關口站不住‧馬股上半年揚4.47%
Created 06/29/2012 - 17:45

(吉隆坡29日訊)外圍逆風狂刮動搖不了本地機構雄厚實力,富時大馬綜合指數在穩固國內因素支撐下,上半年揚升4.47%,領先反映全場股市表現的富時大馬全股項指數的4.09%漲幅。

主要指數11起1跌

馬股12項主要指數中,今年首半年表現是11起1跌,工業產品指數以7.24%漲幅領先群倫,消費品指數以7.16%漲幅緊追在後,小資本股炒風旺盛,帶動創業板指數表現亮眼,半年上漲7.03%排名第三。

附加股的黯淡色彩

附加股的黯淡色彩
Created 06/29/2012 - 11:31
再一次的附加股計劃,市場會怎麼看呢?

說的是曾幾何時,人人看好一隻亮眼的油氣股――科恩馬集團(KNM,7164,主板工業產品組),因最近建議發售附加股,而為公司的負面形象再添上黯淡色彩,並令市場揣測短期內該公司翻身無望。

還記得多年前,即使是行外人、不懂股票的人,都不會不認識科恩馬,而且還紛紛推薦買進這只號稱“價廉物美”的股項。

然而,近幾年來,經濟環境深具挑戰、市場競爭激烈,導致工程賺益受壓,再加上工程執行力不足、工程超支,盈利表現變得陰晴不定。

MLM及批發業務表現佳‧海鷗全年淨利揚19%

MLM及批發業務表現佳‧海鷗全年淨利揚19%
Created 06/29/2012 - 11:22
(吉隆坡28日訊)受到多層次行銷(MLM)及批發業務顯著貢獻帶動,海鷗企業(HAI-O,7668,主板貿服組)截至2012年4月30日止,全年淨利揚升19.24%至3千382萬7千令吉,前期為2千837萬令吉。

第四季淨利也從前期773萬8千令吉,走挺18.42%至916萬3千令吉。

派息7仙

第四季營業額則成長19.18%至6千943萬6千令吉,並激勵全年營業額上升7.23%至2億3千940萬令吉。

KLCC產業擬設REITs‧購興大增寫新高

KLCC產業擬設REITs‧購興大增寫新高
Created 06/29/2012 - 11:25
(吉隆坡28日訊)KLCC產業(KLCCP,5089,主板產業組)尋求展開企業架構計劃,包括打造產業投資信托(REITs)或相關計劃,促使該股今日深獲市場追捧,盤中最多一度攀升51仙,創下歷史新高紀錄。

該公司發文告指出,將探討企業架構計劃,以提昇股東價值,但任何的建議須獲得相關監管機構、KLCC產業董事部及股東的批准。

“一旦有進一步詳情,我們將作出宣佈。”

大市超買‧估值較貴‧渣打看淡馬股

大市超買‧估值較貴‧渣打看淡馬股
Created 06/29/2012 - 17:44

(吉隆坡29日訊)渣打銀行首席投資策略員史提夫柏萊斯認為,馬股在最近走高後已落在超買狀況,加上整體股市估值較區域同儕昂貴,及其具抗跌性質及潛在負面催化因素,特別是市場關注的全國大選,使該行不看好馬股後市表現及給予“減碼”評級。

建議“減碼”

他指出,該行今年3月預測,全球股市存有10%下調風險。雖然目前尚有3至5%下跌空間,不過,全球股市目前的風險已經縮減,所以,沒有必要過於悲觀。

該行建議未來12個月里加碼全球股市,特別看好美國股市前景,惟亞太股市(除日本)則從“加碼”調降至“中和”

评估联昌国际退出 睦兴旺追讨APH 3.9亿

评估联昌国际退出 睦兴旺追讨APH 3.9亿
Created 06/29/2012 - 11:05
(吉隆坡28日讯)睦兴旺(Muhibbah,5703,主板建筑股)正向亚洲石油中心(APH)追讨3亿9950万令吉的欠款,并评估联昌国际(CIMB,1023,主板金融股)退出计划后公司下一步该怎么走。

睦兴旺董事经理麦彦文指出:“我们对联昌国际退出重组计划感到惊讶,我们一直都希望可获得回报,但现在我们必须委托他人,研究整个情况,再决定下一步怎么走。”

麦彦文透露,睦兴旺之前和联昌国际就重组计划紧密合作,并希望在亚洲石油中心获取股权。

Market Insight:渣打未到買貨時

Market Insight:渣打未到買貨時
畀高登仔封為「神劇」,卻晚晚被師奶罷睇的「心戰」,今晚終於大結局,下星期成班改晒姓賴的魚缸友,無藉口篤住秋官話佢佗衰家。雖然N年前丁蟹在「大時代」,隊散期指搵錢深入民心,不過大家真係唔好當真,最好笑居然有大行陪股民癲,出埋報告話個市仲未跌夠。

大行指睇番「心戰」五月開播以來,港股唔單止無跌,恒指由18,951升至19,025點,仲有74點進帳。古勝覺得,無論「秋官效應」抑或「秋官效應恐懼症」都係時候告一段落。

索羅斯基金否認撤港

索羅斯基金否認撤港
市傳索羅斯基金旗下香港分支機構SFM HK的三大巨頭有兩個離任,包括蔡篤昀及戴霽昕都已離開,惹來市場揣測索羅斯的香港基金可能有策略變動,甚至撤資。

《21世紀經濟報道》引述索羅斯基金發言人Michael Vachon,否認撤離香港或策略發生重大變化的傳聞,但對於SFM HK未來會否繼續在香港市場投資,或者是否縮減規模,則表示不便作出任何評論。

港股如過山車 半年僅微升

華潤系雙雄升逾一成 思捷冧莊最差藍籌
港股如過山車 半年僅微升
港股在今年上半年大起大落,高低波幅3,661點,恒指一度升至21,717點,較年初升3,283點,但是,隨着外圍局勢急轉直下,幾乎將升幅一筆勾消,截至昨日埋單僅微升591點。其中華潤系雙雄華潤地產(1109)以及華潤電力(0836)升幅超過一成,榮登股市大贏家;一度醜股大翻身的思捷環球(0330)則繼續冧莊,成為表現最差藍籌。

【本報記者雷文報道】港股在上半年受到外圍局勢多重衝擊,包括歐債危機不斷升級、美國經濟放緩以及中國在最近公布多項經濟數據每況越下的影響,股市籠罩悲觀氣氛。

fb包銷商剩1/4話Like

fb包銷商剩1/4話Like
全球最大社交網站facebook(fb)首度公開招股(IPO)的33家包銷商,經過40天冷靜期後,陸續「解禁」發表相關研究報告,有17家於周三即冷靜期結束首日,立即給予投資評級,但只有8家給予「買入」,包括首日掛牌入市「托價」的摩根士丹利,以及高盛和摩根大通。另外至少1家不留情面地建議投資者「沽出」。

已經發表研究報告的包銷商中,摩通看法「最牛」,預估fb股價未來12個月及18個月升見42及45美元;高盛亦以42美元作為12個月目標價,即較現水平尚有27%上升空間;包銷商首領大摩則預期,fb股價未來一年將會回歸招股價38美元,指fb在流動廣告方面擁有長遠機遇。

地區策略報告 – 香港

大致上,香港區的增長自2010年第四季度起因環球宏觀經濟環境(包括經濟放緩以及歐洲地區的風險加劇從而影響投資情緒)而出現下跌趨勢。

國際貿易是影響香港經濟的最重要因素,無論出口或進口均超過香港地區的國民生產總值(GDP)總額的200%。中國市場佔香港的總進出口量約50%(即是超過香港GDP的100%),而中國現正處於趨向溫和的增長勢頭。此現象對區內過去數季度的GDP增長起著負面影響。此外,消費的增長率(佔實質國民生產總值逾70%)於2011年第二季度見頂,並自此出現跌勢。旅遊業錄得超過按年15%增長率 ,主要受惠於國內旅客的書面上升。最近(2012年首季度)的工業生產數據顯示較去年有第二次直接季度收縮。

Hi-P’s major customer Research In Motion (RIM) plunged 22% in after hours trading (Limtan)

HI-P
S$0.78-HIPS.SI
 Hi-P’s major customer Research In Motion (RIM) plunged 22% in after hours trading after the company reported 1Q ended May ’12 loss of 37 cents a share, way below expectations of 7 cent loss while sales fell 43% to US$2.8bln, also below expectations of US$3.05bln.

 The lower than expected performance reflects their continued market share loss to Apple and Google (Andriod devices). RIM’s market share in the smartphone space fell by 50% to 6.4%.

 RIM’s new product Blackberry 10 which was originally expected to be launched in 1Q 2012 will again be delayed till 1Q 2013 and the company will reduce its workforce by 30% to 11,500 by Mar ’13.

Risk On vs Risk Off - Where Do You Stand?

Risk On vs Risk Off - Where Do You Stand?
What’s New
• “Risk-on” vs “risk-off”. The FSSTI’s volatility saw investors swinging from “risk-on” to “risk-off” in 1H12. The FSSTI is up 6% ytd but there has been a significant divergence as the index rose 13.8% qoq in 1Q12 but fell 6.5% qoq in 2Q12. This report highlights our top picks under the two risk appetite environment.

Action
• A tale of two quarters. Stocks under our coverage have seen a strong divergence in performance between 1Q12 and 2Q12. In 1Q12, higherbeta sectors such as oil services, shipyards, property and technology were stellar outperformers but low-beta defensive sectors such as telecommunications and REITs took charge in 2Q12. As an indication, the FSSTI consolidated 6.5% qoq in 2Q12 where telecommunications and REITs were up 2.2% and 3.6% qoq respectively.

Neptune Orient Lines: Navigating through Dense Fog (KE)

Neptune Orient Lines
SELL(unchanged)
Share price: SGD1.10
Target price: SGD0.95 (previously SGD0.85)
Navigating through Dense Fog

Freight and fuel show signs of improvement. Leading indicators for freight rates and fuel prices have given us cause for optimism about Neptune Orient Lines’ (NOL) fortunes in 2Q12. The China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) has risen 30% QoQ during the quarter with a corresponding drop in bunker prices by almost 10% QoQ. They signal a scenario that, in our view, would make things more manageable in the near term for the world’s seventh-largest container shipping line by capacity. It might even achieve a breakeven for the remaining three quarters of the year after a poor 1Q12.

OKP Holdings: Foray into property development (OCBC)

Fair value S$0.53
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.02
versus: Current price S$0.54
12m total return forecast 2%

FORAY INTO PROPERTY DEVELOPMENT
• 10% stake investment in CSLP
• Better utilise strong net cash position
• Will only invest in minority stakes

Chow Tai Fook (1929) : FY12: Stunning Results (UOBKH)

Chow Tai Fook (1929)
BUY (Maintained)
FY12: Stunning Results

Chow Tai Fook’s (CTF) net profit grew 79% yoy to HK$6.34b in FY12, in line with consensus estimates but 3% below our expectations. Key discrepancy was our overestimation of interest income by HK$118m and underestimation of interest expenses by HK$116m. Along with the results, the group announced its maiden final dividend of HK$0.10/share, representing 27.4% of 2HFY12 earnings. CTF’s market share in both China and Hong Kong & Macau increased in 2011, cementing its leadership position. Management is confident of doubling its turnover in three years, implying a CAGR of 26%, which is in line with our forecasts.

K-REIT Asia: Acquires further 12.39% in OFC at S$2,380 psf (CS)

K-REIT Asia
Price (25 Jun 12, S$) 1.03
TP (prev. TP S$) 1.19 (1.17)
Est. pot. % chg. to TP 16
52-wk range (S$) 1.26 - 0.80
Acquires further 12.39% in OFC at S$2,380 psf; issues 60 mn new units to part finance deal

● KREIT will acquire a further 12.39% stake in Ocean Financial Centre (see 19 Oct-11 report, Circular reveals more colour on the OFC acquisition) from vendor Avan Investments Pte Ltd for S$261.6 mn (~S$2,380 psf NLA) or S$285.7 mn with income support (~S$2,600 psf). This is in line with the S$2,380 psf NLA (S$2,600 psf including income support) KREIT paid last October for the initial 87.51% stake in OFC acquired from KepLand.

CapitaLand: Big shoes to fill of long time veteran (AM)

CapitaLand
LAST CLOSE: S$2.64
FAIR VALUE: S$3.41
Big shoes to fill of long time veteran

 CapitaLand Ltd (CapLand) announced that Mr Liew Mun Leong will be retiring as President and Chief Executive Officer of CapLand’s group in a year time. He will step down from the helm of the group on 28 June 2013 upon turning 67.

 Mr Liew would have served two extensions of his appointment at age 62 (three year extension) and age 65 (two year extension). The first extension came in 2008 amidst the subprime crisis whilst the Board requested for his second extended stint when euro crisis started rearing its ugly head in 2011.

Cosco Singapore Is Lowest-Rated Asia Stock On Rig Push

Cosco Singapore Is Lowest-Rated Asia Stock On Rig Push
By Kyunghee Park - Jun 27, 2012

Cosco Corp. Singapore Ltd. (COS)’s strategy of seeking orders to build oil rigs and offshore accommodation units to offset slumping ship demand hasn’t convinced investors.

The company, which operates seven shipyards in China, has dropped 49 percent in the past year in Singapore trading. It also has the lowest analyst ratings among major Asian stocks, with 21 sell ratings, two holds and no buys, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That’s the worst among MSCI AC Asia Pacific Index members covered by at least three analysts.

Midas : Things could yet turn to gold (CIMB)

Midas
Current S$0.28
Target S$0.41
Things could yet turn to gold

Midas’s share price is hovering near its all-time low of 26 cents. With recent positive developments in China’s railway industry, we smell new contracts in the wind. A high-speed rail contract award could free Midas from the shackles of its year-long nightmare.

When orders return, expect margin expansion on higher utilisation and inventory rundown. We also expect the share price to react positively once new contracts are secured. Maintain Outperform with unchanged target price, still based on 11.7x CY13 P/E, (0.5 sd below historical five-year average).

Starhub: Keeping Its Gun Powder Dry (DMG)

Starhub: Keeping Its Gun Powder Dry (NEUTRAL)
We hosted Starhub at our recent Asean Conference in Singapore where the telco recorded a good number of meeting requests. Discussions were centered on the upcoming bid for the 2013-2016 broadcasting rights to the BPL, capital management and data monetization efforts. There were no major surprises with management reiterating the need to maintain sufficient cash buffer in view of the uncertain industry dynamics. Starhub’s share price has re-rated on yield attraction but we think further upside may be capped by concerns over margin dilution from the BPL and steep device subsidies. We remain NEUTRAL on the stock but up our FV to SGD3.30 from SGD2.80 after lowering our WACC.

Top Glove - Acquires rubber plantation land in Indonesia

Price Target : 6.30
Last Price : 5.18

- According to its Bursa announcement, Top Glove Corp (Top Glove) has entered into a conditional share sale and purchase agreement to acquire a 95% equity stake in PT Agro Pratama Sejahtera (PT Agro) for RM22mil, via its wholly-owned subsidiary Best Advance Resources Limited (BARL).

- PT Agro is principally involved in the rubber forest plantation business in Indonesia.

SapuraKencana : It’s just accounting (CIMB)

SapuraKencana Petroleum
Current RM2.22
Target RM2.90
It’s just accounting

Investors should not be alarmed by the FY1/13 earnings downgrade arising from SapuraKencana’s consolidation method where only 8½ months of Kencana’s earnings will be booked. This is purely an accounting issue and underlying earnings remain robust.

Factoring in a lower contribution from Kencana, we cut our FY13 EPS. Despite the earnings reduction, SapuraKencana is still set for a record performance this year. We continue to value the stock at 18.2x CY13 P/E, a 40% premium over our target market P/E. SapuraKencana remains an Outperform and our top pick for oil & gas big caps.

Hi-P is in the midst of increasing its addressable market (Limtan)

TABLET MARKET
 The tablet market is seeing increased competition with Google being the latest to launch its own version to challenge the dominance of Apple (the market leader with 60-70% market share).

 While Google’s Andriod software is currently being used by non-Apple tablet producers such as Samsung, Google is partnering Taiwan’s Asustek Computer to come up with its own version called the Nexus 7 tablet that uses the latest version of its operating system called Jelly Bean.

OSIM International : Key takeaways from luncheon presentation (UOBKH)

OSIM International (OSIM SP)
Key takeaways from luncheon presentation
Price/Target S$1.17/S$1.61

We invited Mr Peter Lee, CFO of OSIM, to present the group’s strategy and outlook to our trading representatives.

Investment highlights
• For OSIM stores, the group sees strong potential in China due to the rising number of middle-income consumers. Most of these customers pay cash for the chairs rather than through hire purchase. According to the CFO, the country presents another opportunity once the credit card market matures. Currently, OSIM has 270 stores in China and we expect the group to add another 25 in FY12. • Sales of uDivine App, an improved version of uDivine massage chairs, have been encouraging in Hong Kong where sales have overtaken its predecessor. This is due to the new massage modules and the ability to synchronize with iPhone in terms of entertainment for the new massage chair. Gross margins are maintained in the 68- 70% with pre-tax margins at 18-20%. On market share, OSIM currently produces the most number of massage chairs in the world, according to management.

Yangzijiang: How many more defaults will it suffer?

FreeSeas Ltd defaults on US$49 mln order

[26/6/2012] – Yangzijiang Shipbuilding has suffered its first default.

According to analysts, Greek ship owner FreeSeas Ltd has defaulted on its order of two bulk carriers being developed by Yangzijiang Shipbuilding.

According to OCBC, FreeSeas placed these orders in September 2010 for US$49 mln and failed to make the payments of US$7.4 mln in February and April 2012.

AmanahRaya REIT : Selling Wisma UEP Building (MIB)

AmanahRaya REIT
Hold(unchanged)
Share price: MYR0.92
Target price: MYR0.95 (unchanged)
Selling Wisma UEP Building

Maintain HOLD. The disposal of Wisma UEP was expected, in line with ARREIT’s plan to streamline its property portfolio. We are positive on the deal given its good pricing and potential capital redeployment into better-yielding assets. More importantly, the disposal would release ARREIT from incurring maintenance costs of MYR113k/month. No change in our core profit forecasts. We maintain a HOLD on ARREIT, with an unchanged MYR0.95 target price.

Sells Wisma UEP. ARREIT has entered into a SPA with Tenaga Nasional Bhd (TNB) for the disposal of Wisma UEP for MYR40m in cash. The selling price is 2.6% higher than its appraised value of MYR39m by property valuer CH Williams Talhar & Wong.

Felda Global :How long before reality hits home?

The only reason to buy this stock is because of government backing – but what happens after GE13?

[28/6/2012] – Felda Global Ventures Holdings Bhd (FGVH) is one of the largest – and possibly the most controversial – company listing on any stock market in the world this year.

It will be the world's second-biggest IPO this year after Facebook, and Malaysia's third-largest IPO after Maxis and Petronas Chemicals.

The sheer number of questions that the IPO raises, not to mention the fact that the prospectus stretches over an incredible 985 pages, means it's very difficult to ascertain whether the stock is a dog or a darling.

Hu’s visit: sweetening sentiment, not changing the game (CIMB)

Hu’s visit: sweetening sentiment, not changing the game
Chinese president Hu Jintao is expected to follow tradition and announce policy boos tersfor businesses on his visit to Hong Kong.

Hong Kong stocks have been moving up in expectation of the policy “goodies”. But the joy will be short-lived if, as we expect, the measures turn out to be incremental sweeteners rather than a game changer that sparks reratings.

China Equity Bulls Still Wait For Their Moment in the Sun

China Equity Bulls Still Wait For Their Moment in the Sun
Published: Wednesday, 27 Jun 2012

Low valuations, market reforms and the prospect of monetary easing were all supposed to bring about a long-awaited turnaround for China’s languishing stock market this year, but halfway into 2011 and Chinese stocks have failed to live up to their promise.

Instead, the Shanghai Composite Index [.SSEC 2195.84 -21.09 (-0.95%) ] is on track to post a disappointing performance for the third year running, when compared to Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index [.HSI 19025.27 -151.68 (-0.79%) ] or the S&P 500 [.SPX 1318.55 -13.30 (-1%) ].

Big banks are big mess. Run away!

Big banks are big mess. Run away!
By Paul R. La Monica June 28, 2012

The fun never ends with JPMorgan Chase (JPM). Shares fell nearly 4% Thursday following reports that the loss tied to its bad hedge (or is it a trade?) may now be $9 billion.

This should not come as a big surprise to anyone following the story. JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon first said back in May that the loss was $2 billion. And not long after that, experts were claiming that the loss would grow. In fact, my colleague Maureen Farrell spoke to people two weeks ago who suggested that the loss could be as high as $8 billion. Perhaps Dimon needs to go back in front of the Senate and House again?

曾淵滄專欄 29.06.12:水泥股靠憧憬吊命

曾淵滄專欄:水泥股靠憧憬吊命

在美股造好的推動下,昨日恒指高開129點,之後就反覆向下,下午3時後,滬綜指跌破2200點,市場的恐慌情緒突然出現,恒指馬上由微升轉跌,收市報19025點,跌152點,若跌破19000點,恐慌情緒會再增加。

近日來,人民銀行的確在放鬆銀根,多個基建項目也重新上馬,但是,無法使受影響的企業業績馬上好轉,前陣子安徽海螺(914)發盈警,昨日輪到華潤水泥(1313)發盈警,若不是市場對基建重新上馬抱有憧憬,相信水泥股會跌得更慘。水泥股股價從2008年金融海嘯的低位回升,儘管在過去一年調整的幅度頗大,但與2008年低位相比,仍有好幾倍的漲幅。對低價買入者而言,套現的誘因很大;對高價才追入者而言,就只能繼續憧憬。

数码收发站:摆脱「6绝市」 好友回吐

数码收发站:摆脱「6绝市」 好友回吐
http://paper.wenweipo.com [2012-06-29]

司马敬
 美股隔晚得力于房屋销售及耐用品订单最新数据优于市场预期,道指再升92点收报上12,627,带动周四亚太区股市续靠稳,尤以日股升1.65%最突出,不过印尼受油价回落而掉头下跌1.2%。港股适逢期指结算日,乘势高开129点报19,306,但随即在回吐压力下反覆下滑,午市明显受内地股市七连跌并下破2,200关影响,恒指急退至19,000边缘,丰(0005)、内银及中移动(0941)均由升转跌,尾市收报19,025,全日跌151点或0.79%,成交419亿元。观望欧盟峰会结果为大市升后回调主因,大市续在18,700/19,300上落寻求突破。

 6月期指昨日结算,美股升近百点,好友大户乘高开获利,最后以19,180结算,仍稳升20点,成交合约1.4万张。好友大户在6月初低位计埋单计数有约千点升幅,总算摆脱「6绝市」而获利。7月期指随恒指回落险守19,000关,跌176点,低水25点,成交逾7万张。

滬綜七連跌穿2200關

滬綜七連跌穿2200關
市場資金捉襟見肘,滬深股市人氣低迷,投資信心潰散下,滬綜指連跌七個交易日,滬綜指進一步失守2,200點關,滬深兩市成交維持1,066億元(人民幣‧下同)低水平。上半年只剩今日一個交易日,滬綜指極有可能回到年初2,132點階段新低,六個月來投資者或白忙一場。

人行續放水 拆息照上
人民銀行昨日在公開市場再次進行300億元逆回購操作,計入本周二定向逆回購的話,六月份市場淨投放金額約達4,000億元,相當於調低存款準備金率一次。

MD says Muhibbah to cope despite APH setback

The Star Online > Business
Friday June 29, 2012
MD says Muhibbah to cope despite APH setback

By LIZ LEE
lizlee@thestar.com.my

SHAH ALAM: Muhibbah Engineering (M) Bhd will be able to cope financially despite CIMB Bank Bhd’s withdrawal from Asia Petroleum Hub Sdn Bhd’s (APH) restructuring exercise which resulted in a repayment delay from APH for services rendered.

Managing director Mac Ngan Boon said the group had been hopeful for the restructuring to come through but it was “strong enough to handle” APH’s RM400mil debt.

末日博士:金融完美風暴將臨

末日博士:金融完美風暴將臨
歐債危機之火不斷蔓延,區內成員國斯洛文尼亞,可能成為第六個需要尋求援助的歐元區國家。新末日博士、紐約大學經濟學教授魯賓尼(Nouriel Roubini)警告,明年有可能出現歐元區瓦解、美國跌下財政懸崖(Fiscal Cliff)、中國經濟硬着陸及中東爆發戰爭等問題,形成完美的風暴(Perfect Storm)。

據彭博社報道,斯洛文尼亞首相Janez Jansa在接受當地電台訪問時指,如果國會下月不能通過有關限制公共開支的法案,那麼該國可能要求國際救助。

外围政经环境不明朗 海指几乎持平收市

由于对欧盟峰会所可能取得的成果缺乏信心以及担心中国制造业脚步进一步放缓,多数亚洲股市昨日停止了三天的涨势,海峡时报指数昨日也几乎持平收市,最后报2846.82点,仅微涨5.22点或0.18%。

  股价虽欠缺表现,本地股市的交易活动昨日却达到本月最高水平,全天成交量超过18亿5000万股,总值超过13亿5000万元。

  华侨银行昨早在一份报告中指出,海指可能进一步上涨,初步的阻力线是在2850点,然后是2900点,但鉴于欧盟峰会的举行,海指此时不大可能来到2900点。

  昨日给予海指有力支持的是新电信、丰益国际、嘉茂商产信托、怡和合发以及城市发展等,压力主要是来自香港置地、新交所、嘉德置地、云顶新加坡以及华侨银行。各领域指数起落不一。

Past underbuilding explains today's housing resilience

Past underbuilding explains today's housing resilience
by Tan Chin Keong 04:45 AM Jun 29, 2012
Singapore's residential property market has continued to confound sceptics, myself included, with its strong monthly new home sales of more than 2,000 units - including executive condominiums - over the last five months.

While recent project launches have set new prices benchmarks, demand has remained unquestionably healthy. This is especially surprising given the cooling measures already introduced and the expected ramp-up in supply over the next few years as both the Government and private sector analysts have signalled.

Dark clouds over housing market

Dark clouds over housing market
by Colin Tan 04:45 AM Jun 29, 2012
The deterioration of the euro zone debt crisis during the past few weeks has once again cast dark clouds over the private housing market in Singapore.

Feedback from various market players - housing agents, bankers and valuers - indicate a significant slowdown in home purchases in both the primary and secondary markets during this period.

This has happened so regularly that, by now, you cannot help but notice the strong links between buying sentiment here and the problems faced by the European Union (EU). The greater the gravity of the problems in Europe, the weaker the market sentiment here in Singapore.

No surprise over Branson's exit from AirAsia X

No surprise over Branson's exit from AirAsia X
By Bilqis Bahari
bt@nstp.com.my
2012/06/29

KUALA LUMPUR: Sir Richard Branson's Virgin Atlantic Airways Ltd exit from AirAsia X Sdn Bhd is not a surprise to those in the industry.

They also said the move will not affect AirAsia X's initial public offering (IPO)expected by year-end.

A source familiar with the matter told Business Times that there was clear indication that Branson wanted out from AirAsia X when his company did not participate in the airline's capital-raising back in 2010.

Buoyant debut reflects investors’ confidence in FGV

Buoyant debut reflects investors’ confidence in FGV
By ZAIDI ISHAM ISMAIL
xydee@nstp.com.my
2012/06/29

18pc PREMIUM: Analysts optimistic about the stock and further gains expected in next one month
FELDA Global Ventures Holdings Bhd's (FGV) positive share performance yesterday reflects investor confidence in the stock as well as on Malaysia's business entities, Affin Investment Bank head of retail research Dr Nazri Khan said.

"Based on the premium, this is a good sign indeed as it shows investors have a lot of confidence in FGV, with a lot of potential buyers out there and also an active domestic fund buying activities," said Nazri.

花旗料恒指年底20300

花旗料恒指年底20300
http://paper.wenweipo.com [2012-06-29]

 香港文汇报讯(记者 涂若奔)花旗环球个人银行服务投资策略及研究部主管张敏华昨日表示,由于企业盈利有下调空间,加上市场信心不强,故将今年第四季的恒指预测由22,000点调降至20,300点。她并估计,人民银行下半年将两次降低存款准备金率,每次50点子;及将再次减息,1年期存款利率将由现时的3.25厘降至2.75厘。

 张敏华昨日于记者会上表示,港股当前已十分便宜,以市场预期的今年恒指成份股每股盈利计算,现时恒指市盈率约为9.9倍,较长期平均值12.7倍有折让。但她不肯回应股市是否已见底,仅表示当恒指升至21,000点水平时,受美股走势影响较大,而在当前的水平则要加倍留意内地的各项政策。她估计港股于今年8至9月或有机会出现调整,但随着内地推出更多刺激措施,令内地经济重拾升轨,从而刺激恒指于第四季回升。

股博士隨筆:中遠洋未宜看淡

股博士隨筆:中遠洋未宜看淡
中國五月份外貿進出口令人意外地回升,商務部發言人日前表示,根據目前掌握的情況,六月份整體上將保持五月的勢頭,並稱若世界經濟不出現進一步惡化,全年進出口增長10%的預期目標是可實現。

事實上,儘管歐洲經濟情況令人擔憂,但中遠太平洋(01199)在今年首五個月碼頭吞吐量仍上升10.9%,高於市場預期,希臘港口Piraeus表現亦相當穩定。

匯控涉誤報LIBOR 倫敦跌1.4元

匯控涉誤報LIBOR 倫敦跌1.4元
2012年6月29日
【明報專訊】市場憂慮內地周一公布的PMI會再創新低,加上對即將召開的歐盟峰會不抱期望,恒指昨日倒跌151點,國指急挫1.3%。匯控(0005)亦倒跌收市,在倫敦匯控股價跌幅擴大,於本港時間昨晚11時35分報66.75元,較港收市跌1.4元,主要因匯豐被監管機構調查是否誤報LIBOR(倫敦銀行同業拆息)報價。

巴克萊被罰4.5億美元 股價瀉逾一成

美國、英國及加拿大等金融監管當局自2008年底起調查多間大銀行有否操控銀行同業拆息,終於在日前重罰巴克萊銀行4.53億美元,令巴克萊昨日在倫敦的股價一度大跌12%。英國財長George Osborne昨日透露,花旗、瑞銀、蘇皇及匯豐亦正被監管當局調查,觸發資金撤離銀行股。

Fundman睇市:秋官效應告一段落

Fundman睇市:秋官效應告一段落

幸運女神眷顧西班牙,前晚歐國盃射贏十二碼,但改不了國運,十年債息連抽四日,執筆時又見7厘危險水平,氣氛直接衝擊歐洲股市,拖累結算日的港股,在三點後急轉直下,恒指最後一小時倒跌151點,報19,025點,即月期指收19,180點,七月期指插到19,000點收,低水25點,港股不脫行三步退兩步的悶局。

畀高登仔封為「神劇」,但另一邊又晚晚被師奶鬧爆兼罷睇的「心戰」,今晚終於大結局,下星期一班改晒姓賴的魚缸友,再無藉口篤住秋官話佢佗衰家。睇番「心戰」五月開播以來,港股唔單止無跌,恒指由18,951升至19,025點,有74點進帳,無論「秋官效應」抑或「秋官效應恐懼症」,都係時候告一段落。

港滬深跨境指數冀年底面世

港滬深跨境指數冀年底面世

經過近一年時間籌備,在國務院批准下,港交所(00388)與上交所及深交所,昨日終於簽訂協議在港設立合資公司,初期註冊資本為3億元,三方各自出資1億元,並且各自持有33.3%股權,最快今年九月成立。港交所行政總裁李小加直言,三家交易所從來沒有討論過合併事宜。合資公司屬中央推動中港合作措施之一,擬爭取今年底率先推出涵蓋三家交易所上市的大型內地股為基礎的跨境指數,並且於明年在港交所推出相關指數期貨及期權買賣。

中資銀行研納入RQFII

與此同時,中央代表團新聞發布中心負責人表示,將積極研究降低本港金融機構申請合格境外機構投資者(QFII)要求,並且進一步提高人民幣合格境外機構投資者(RQFII)額度、擴大試點機構範圍、放寬投資比例限制。據了解,放寬RQFII機構範圍,可能是伸延至在港中資銀行分支,並且傾向放寬與上市產品如交易所買賣基金(ETF)等有關申請。

負面纏身 突圍有難

負面纏身 突圍有難
之前提過當年廣船(0317)的股價係幾年間好似快艇咁,升了幾拾倍,但今時今日造船業就唔係好好環境。作為中國一家大型重工企業的熔盛重工(1101),主要業務為造船、海洋工程、動力工程及工程機械。產品包括散貨船、油輪、集裝箱船、海洋工程產品、船用低速柴油發動機以及建築業,以及採礦業的中小型挖掘機及起重機。

造船業暗淡
現時熔盛超過九成的營業額來自造船。公司表示,今年首季經營較去年有改善,至今已交付7艘船,較去年的5艘船有所增長,該7艘船合共達130萬載重噸,當中2艘是的超大型礦砂船,其餘的是乾散貨船。今年集團目標希望交付15艘船。可惜至上個月為止,公司係年內仲係未有新船訂單。但現時部份訂單排期至2014年。

A50可續追沽

A50可續追沽
國家主席今天來港,部份傳媒繼續吹噓「送大禮」,除實質作用有限之外,連對市場的刺激作用顯然亦不大。

德國反對歐盟發行共同債券,對剛公布的財政融合計劃可能構成阻滯,但美股仍然出現反彈,道指在周三回升92點,可惜並未能帶動亞洲市場在昨天進一步反彈,區內股市表現參差,其中,大陸股市跌勢不止,上海A股最終失守2,200點,創出1月中以來的收市新低,亦對港股構成壓力。港股受外圍帶動高開192點後全日反覆下滑,最後跌回19,025點收市,成交微增至419億元。

七月市場氣氛可望紓緩

七月市場氣氛可望紓緩
歐盟峰會昨日召開,在希臘新總理和財長缺席之下,各國領袖意見仍然未有具體共識,德國總理默克爾對發歐元共同債券態度似不易改變,更指只要她仍然在生,也不會發歐元債。國家工業和信息化部報道,中國經濟增速有望在6月份回升,官方數據顯示,內地5月份工業增加值較上年同期上升9.6%,增幅高於4月份9.3%;5月份全國社會用電量較上年同期升5.2%,相比4月3.7%為佳。

由於銀行間資金鍊自前周起已趨緊張,故此中國人民銀行周二進行950億14天逆回購操作,利率為4.2厘,今日更有機會再逆回購多300億人民幣,使近期資金緊張情況有望得到暫緩,但值得注意的事,大部份內銀在7月中旬將要派息,這樣會加大銀行資金壓力,筆者認為下月人行將會降存款準備金率50點子。

中國國航受惠油價跌

中國國航受惠油價跌
中央擬在深圳前海,推動人民幣資本項目兌換的試驗。為全球關注的人民幣資本帳開放,再邁開一步。發改委和前海政府部門,將在今日召開新聞發布會,宣布更多措施,將成為市場的焦點。

今年上半年由於環球經濟增長放緩、油價高企、以及人民幣升值預期降溫,內地航空股首季業績倒退。例如,中國國航(0753)今年首季業績並不理想,營業額上升7.7%,純利按年倒退85.7%至2.39億人民幣,但若撇除一次性收益,首季表現仍符合預期。而國航現時的估值已跌至相當低殘,加上國際油價顯著回落,可考慮現時趁低吸納。

英美查銀行 滙控倫敦挫4%

【本報綜合報道】繼英國巴克萊同意支付4.53億美元擺平操控倫敦銀行同業拆息( LIBOR)案件後,昨日市場又傳英美監管機構對事件調查仍然持續,英國財相歐思邦指,包括滙控(005)、花旗、蘇皇及瑞銀在內等銀行亦會接受英國監管機構 FSA調查,令歐美銀行股全線急挫。

多間銀行被指操控拆息

歐思邦昨日確認英國兩大行滙控及蘇皇,以及兩國際大行瑞銀及花旗均被 FSA調查有否牽涉操縱 LIBOR。消息一出令歐美銀行股急挫,其中巴克萊及蘇皇跌幅逾一成;萊斯跌逾半成;滙控倫敦股價則跌近4%。其餘歐美大行股價亦被拖累,跌逾2%至5%。
另一方面,歐盟峯會正式展開,但各國領袖分歧仍存在,令投資者對會議的期望減低。受負面消息影響,歐美股市昨日回軟,美股昨日早段大幅低開,道指最多曾跌164點,英、法、德股尾段跌0.71%至1.47%。

JPMorgan Trading Loss May Reach $9 Billion

JPMorgan Trading Loss May Reach $9 Billion

Published: Thursday, 28 Jun 2012
Losses on JPMorgan Chase’s bungled trade could total as much as $9 billion, far exceeding earlier public estimates, according to people who have been briefed on the situation.

When Jamie Dimon, the bank’s chief executive, announced in May that the bank had lost $2 billion in a bet on credit derivatives, he estimated that losses could double within the next few quarters. But the red ink has been mounting in recent weeks, as the bank has been unwinding its positions, according to interviews with current and former traders and executives at the bank who asked not to be named because of investigations into the bank.

RIM slides as BlackBerry 10 delayed

RIM slides as BlackBerry 10 delayed
Smartphone sales sink as net losses seen continuing

By Dan Gallagher, MarketWatch
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — Research In Motion Ltd. reported a sharp drop in sales for its fiscal first quarter on Thursday afternoon, and said it was pushing back the planned launch of its BlackBerry 10 operating system to early

The sales decline and associated net loss for Research In Motion RIMM -15.66% CA:RIM +0.21% was worse than analysts had estimated, and the pushback of the BlackBerry 10 launch will also likely disappoint investors who had been expecting a fall launch of the new devices.

低吸地產股好過買樓?

低吸地產股好過買樓?
美股在過去3個交易日原地踏步,沒有市場出現預期般的粉飾櫥窗活動。港股先高後低,恒指將回落考驗20天線支持。瑞銀建議投資者趁低買本地地產股,同時棄買港樓。上證指跌破2,200點大關,短線向下探底機會大增。

在過去3個交易日美股走勢反覆,半年結在即,市場憧憬基金大戶在本周作粉飾櫥窗行動,但觀察過去幾日美股走勢,暫時並無發現美股3大指數被舞高之象。相反,以本周為例,道指在周一急跌後,周二、三已現止跌反彈,結果指數接近原地踏步,沒有出現較大升幅。現時美股餘下只有兩個交易日,預料升幅不大。

Is It Time to Cash Out of Global Luxury Stocks?

Is It Time to Cash Out of Global Luxury Stocks?
Published: Thursday, 28 Jun 2012

Global luxury stocks have surged in the first-half of the year, driven higher by investor optimism over company earnings as well as rising demand from consumers in emerging markets.

However, growing concerns over a further slowdown in global growth, particularly in the world's second-largest consumer of luxury products China, is putting into question whether the gains can be sustained.

Stocks Slump After Health Care Ruling


Foreign investors feel pinch in China


Time to 'Friend' Facebook?


Banks: Lessons Not Learned?


Has Peak Oil Actually Peaked?


Emerging Stocks Decline As China Index Erases 2012 Gain

Emerging Stocks Decline As China Index Erases 2012 Gain
By Ian C. Sayson and Jason Webb - Jun 28, 2012

Developing-nation stocks fell as the Shanghai Composite Index erased this year’s advance on concern China’s economic slowdown will choke earnings and as European leaders begin a two-day summit on the debt crisis.

The MSCI Emerging Markets Index (MXEF) declined 0.6 percent to 907.47 as of 10:34 a.m. in New York, snapping two days of gains. The Shanghai Composite slid 1 percent, the seventh straight slide in its longest losing streak in 13 months. Energy companies (MXEF0EN) declined as OGX Petroleo e Gas Participacoes SA slumped to a three-year low. Benchmark indexes slipped at least 1 percent in Russia and South Africa.

EU Summit: A Real Fix Or Just a Lot of Talk?


Is There Nothing to Fear But a Selloff Itself?


Market turmoil? Don't be scared, be smart


China Stocks Look 'Fairly' Cheap


Are Stocks Headed for a Summer Rally?


Thursday, June 28, 2012

2012-0626-57金錢爆(織豬人-歐債債驚奇再起)


若经济持续放缓 中国或靠降存准率提供支撑

若经济持续放缓 中国或靠降存准率提供支撑
2012年 6月 20日 星期三 10:31 BJT
* 进一步调降存款准备金率料为央行更青睐的政策工具

* 进一步降息作为最後的政策选项

* 消费者预期物价上扬,但仍愿意支出

记者 药朝清 编译 王冠中/兰秀娟

路透北京6月19日电---知悉北京当局政策决定过程的经济分析师表示,中国人民银行可能仰赖削减银行存款准备金率来提振成长,但要保留进一步降息的做法,作为最後的政策选项.

分析师指出,全球需求持续疲弱,中国成长可能尚未在第二季触底,或者复苏速度可能迟滞,因此新的政策支撑可能是必要的.

交银国际:港股下半年最高二万三

交银国际:港股下半年最高二万三
http://paper.wenweipo.com [2012-06-28]

香港文汇报讯(记者 周绍基)交银国际发表下半年股市预测,指港股仍受欧债危机影响,将继续反覆波动,预期恒指会在16,000至23,000点间徘徊。

 交银国际董事总经理洪灏表示,投资者下半年可留意消费股,有资金从高风险的周期性股票,流入到消费行业股份,其中最看好恒安(1044),因该公司积极扩展产能,今年业绩有机会为市场带来惊喜,而且受惠原材料成本下跌,亦对公司有利。

送大禮疲勞傳言 振股市作用有限

送大禮疲勞傳言 振股市作用有限

中央送大禮的傳言,像在為港股吊針打點滴,愈近七月一日愈真,可能臨到七月一日失真。每逢國家領導人訪港,送大禮的消息都不脛而走,有板有眼事後有真有假,這成為習慣後,送大禮難免成為疲勞傳言,市場的反應也呈現着遞減效應,到今天這地步,一方面中央理應反思,送大禮式挺港是否應「優化」;另一方面香港市場亦應反思,港股怎會患上送大禮「飢渴症」?

權當七月一日的慶典備受中央看重,國家領導人來港定要帶些政策「手信」,會是甚麼?內地媒體來自國務院有關部門的消息說,一系列政策措施主要涉及經貿合作、金融合作、教育交流、科技合作、旅遊合作、粵港合作六方面。從洋洋大觀的「禮單」不難發現,所謂「一系列政策措施」沒甚麼新貨,只是CEPA等以往挺港政策,出台延續、完善措施。

中央送禮港股冷待

中央送禮港股冷待
驚喜欠奉 只衝高一小時

【本報訊】中央大禮無驚喜,港股冷感僅升一句鐘。「7.1禮單」提早出爐,大市除早段一句鐘衝高200點後無以為繼,市場追貨意欲低,恒指橫行至收市,全日僅升195點或1%,成交持續淡靜。業界指送禮只是小恩小惠,短暫利好,中長線難轉勢。
記者:林靜、梁嘉麒

本港時間昨晚10點,歐美股市反彈約0.5%,在新加坡買賣的港股期貨(俗稱黑期)再彈約百點。

六大禮單中(見表),未見放寬2萬元人民幣兌換上限令人失望。至於最重要的中港兩地互掛 ETF(交易所買賣基金),消息早於月初廣傳,礙於初期規模有限,對大市刺激作用有限。以往送禮皆炒起的港交所(388)及中銀香港(2388),僅微升0.1%至0.2%。內地 ETF基金成交活躍,安碩中國(2801)及安碩 A50(2823)成交皆逾六億元。

油庫島重組觸礁‧傳APH對外招標

油庫島重組觸礁‧傳APH對外招標
Created 06/28/2012 - 19:02

(吉隆坡28日訊)市場盛傳,亞洲石油樞紐公司(Asia Petroleum Hub或簡稱APH)的油庫島計劃在重組觸礁之後,將對外招標以求重生。

消息人士對財經日報《The Edge》表示,APH的接管人及經理人普華永道在嘗試重組該公司失敗之後,而決定進行招標,價高者得。

被APH拖欠10億1千萬令吉的聯昌銀行,最近宣佈不再支持重組計劃。

睦兴旺冀APH重组计划续执行

(吉隆坡28日讯)继联昌国际(CIMB,1023,主板金融股)日前宣布退出亚洲石油中心(APH)工程的重组计划后,睦兴旺工程(MUHIBAH,5703,主板建筑股)希望重组计划可继续被执行,以实现该工程的未来价值。

睦兴旺工程董事经理麦彦文表示,联昌国际的举动著实令他们大吃一惊。由于事件刚发生,该公司仍需要时间研究该採取何种措施。「目前一切仍然言之过早,我们需要时间研究整个形势。」

对于睦兴旺入主亚洲石油中心的看法,他婉转表示,该公司更希望可取回被拖欠的工程款项,不过也对重组计划有浓厚的兴趣。

有鑑于亚洲石油中心属政府的发展计划,而柔佛又处于策略性地点,因此他认为仍有许多投资者有意投入该项工程。他在出席股东常年大会后向媒体做出回应。

亞洲最大IPO‧首日溢價75仙‧聯土全球後市引關注

亞洲最大IPO‧首日溢價75仙‧聯土全球後市引關注
Created 06/28/2012 - 17:45

(吉隆坡28日訊)亞洲今年最大上市計劃--聯土全球(FGV,5222主板種植組)首日登場不負眾望,逆市中大放異彩,為政府相關公司(GLCs)優異上市表現再添一筆,但市場更關注的是,上市後的後續漲勢和盈利表現。

根據《星洲財經》粗略計算,自2010年至今年6月杪,共有聯土全球、大馬氣体(GASMSIA,5209,主板貿服組)、大馬糖廠(MSM,5202,主板消費品組)、國油化學(PCHEM,5183,主板工業產品組)和海事重工(MHB,5186,主板貿服組)等5家GLC上市,都引發市場熱烈追逐。

城中城产业探讨设产托 全马最大 料超100亿

城中城产业探讨设产托 全马最大 料超100亿
Created 06/28/2012 - 19:08

(吉隆坡28日讯)城中城产业(KLCCP,5089,主板产业股)董事局今天宣布,探讨成立产业投资信托(REIT),该计划一旦实现,有望成为全马最大型的产托,产业价值超过100亿令吉。

城中城产业通过马交所发文告宣布,董事局已经授权集团管理层,探讨包括成立产业投资信托在内的企业架构活动。

文告指出,任何有关上述企业架构活动的建议,需要获得相关监管单位、城中城产业,以及股东的批准。

城中城产业表示,有关这项企业活动的任何进展,将会即时向股东作出公告。

分析:欧元是否已无可救药?

分析:欧元是否已无可救药?
2012年 6月 28日 星期四 15:23 BJT
* 外界越来越怀疑德国是否决心"拯救"欧元

* 还有手段来争取时间,但领导人是否会反复使用这些工具?

* 如果继续敷衍了事,市场势必怨声载道

全球经济主编魏伦(Alan Wheatley)

路透伦敦6月27日电---这是让欧洲领导人夜不能寐的恶梦:西班牙公债标售失败,偿债能力担忧扩散到意大利并引发无法控制的银行挤兑,欧元的末日来到.

这种情形可能发生吗?决策者希望千万不要发生.是否有发生的可能性?他们担心也许有.

China’s Stock Index Drops For Seventh Day On Earnings Concerns

China’s Stock Index Drops For Seventh Day On Earnings Concerns
By Bloomberg News - Jun 28, 2012

China’s benchmark stock index slid for a seventh day, the longest stretch of losses in 13 months, as concern the nation’s economic slowdown is curbing earnings growth overshadowed an improving outlook for exports to the U.S.

Dongfang Electric Corp. (600875) paced a decline for industrial companies on concern slowing growth will sap demand. Inner Mongolia Baotou Steel Rare Earth Hi-Tech led a gauge of material producers to the steepest loss among industry groups after the U.S., Europe and Japan asked the World Trade Organization to resolve a dispute over China’s limits on rare earth exports. The Shanghai Composite Index is the world’s second-worst performing benchmark index this month, with trading values on the exchange tumbling to the lowest level in five months.

APH重組受挫‧睦興旺股東基金赤字恐達2.45億

APH重組受挫‧睦興旺股東基金赤字恐達2.45億
Created 06/28/2012 - 11:51
(吉隆坡27日訊)睦興旺工程(MUHIBAH,5703,主板建筑組)表示,亞洲石油樞紐(Asia Petroleum Hub,APH)正評估所有可行方案以支付賬款,若賬款出問題,對睦興旺股東基金的全面衝擊估計達2億4千500萬令吉。

睦興旺發文告表示,APH建築工程保證的應收賬款達3億9千950萬令吉,而未保證的額外賬款為750萬令吉。

“睦興旺獲得APH的企業擔保,APH現也在評估所有可行的行動以支付該款項。”

睦興旺在考量過去數年稽查賬目的撥備和調整後,上述懸而未決的淨額外款項,若對公司股東基金帶來任何衝擊,估計為2億4千500萬令吉。

名家手笔:救欧元区 德国得学会让步●索罗斯

名家手笔:救欧元区 德国得学会让步●索罗斯
Created 06/28/2012 - 13:00
上周四在罗马开会,德国、法国、西班牙和意大利领袖同意迈向银行联盟,并推出一套适度的刺激方案来搭配财政协议,但默克尔拒绝所有能让西班牙和意大利从市场过高的风险溢价中,稍稍喘口气的提案。

这可能导致本周的欧盟高峰会一事无成,带来毁灭性后果,因为这将导致欧元区其他国家在缺乏强大防火墙保护下,面对希腊可能退出的风险。

即使能避免致命的意外,债权国和债务国的裂痕将加深,周边国家将没有机会重拾竞争力,因为竞技场对他们不利。

这或许符合德国狭隘的自我利益,但将创造一个开放社会人民难以想像的欧洲,德国将成为帝国的核心,周边国则沦于永久次要地位,这不是默克尔或多数德国人乐见的。

沪综指收跌1%至近六个月新低

沪综指收跌1%至近六个月新低
2012年 6月 28日 星期四 15:11 BJT
路透北京6月28日电---中国股市沪综指周四继续震荡下跌1%,并创近六个月收盘新低.外围市场普遍反弹亦未能带动大盘回升,市场信心溃散令股指连续第七个交易日回落.

分析人士认为,季末资金面捉襟见肘是行情疲弱的主要原因,而成交量有所放大显示恐慌性卖盘开始离场,预计二季度末股指或再现阶段性低点.

多空交雜‧亞股震盪

多空交雜‧亞股震盪
Created 06/28/2012 - 10:52
亞股27日表現震盪,但大部份股市成功收高,市場預期美國房市觸底及中國可能加強支撐經濟力道,減輕本週領袖準備再度舉行峰會之際、歐債危機惡化的憂慮。

日本股市收紅,終止3連跌,日經指數漲66.50點或0.77%,收8730.49點;不過,韓國KOSPI指數低盤開出後,受汽車類股下挫的影響而走勢疲弱,終場下跌0.01%,收1817.65點,創6月5日以來收盤新低,為連續第五個交易日收低。

中國股市連續第六個交易日收跌,創下6個月來最長的跌勢,因大和證券集團調降中國第二季經濟成長預測。上證綜指下跌5.13點或0.23%,收2216.934點,盤中漲跌互換至少10次。

穆迪恐砍西班牙信評至垃圾級

穆迪恐砍西班牙信評至垃圾級
Created 06/27/2012 - 19:00
西班牙大型銀行與企業違約擔保成本逼近歷史高點,投資人指出,穆迪(Moody's)準備將西國信評打入垃圾等級。

西國銀行業龍頭西班牙國際銀行(Banco Santander)本季信用違約交換(CDS)上漲23%到454個基點,相較於去年11月的史上新高474個基點。西班牙對外銀行(BBVA)CDS上揚26%至477個基點,接近5月的紀錄高點516個基點。西班牙電信集團飆漲70%,至歷史新高的540個基點。

法興信用分析師蘇基曼指出,穆迪可能在數週後調降西班牙主權債務評等。

投資SUN國度:似強實弱增持現金

投資SUN國度:似強實弱增持現金


恒指雖然稍為向上突破,但情況和周二相比並未有特別改善,升勢依然非常集中。一向的打法,是升破阻力位加注,不過由於實在太多弱勢股票,不單放棄追買,反而把握機會沽出強勢股獲利,一下子增加手上現金的比例。

最近兩個星期的發展絕對可以輸死人,挾藍籌頂高指數,另一方面二三線股跌到面目全非。回顧過去一個星期,唯一最有勝算的機會,應該是恒大(03333)事件去買藍籌內房股,無論恒大是否有力復原,這些被殃及的池魚,都有機會反攻。換一個角度看,之所以出現這個機會,可以說完全是對手急於反應新聞犯錯所致。

Fundman睇市:回購領匯諗都唔使諗

Fundman睇市:回購領匯諗都唔使諗

七一回歸周年前夕,中央事先張揚送禮內容,刺激昨日港股平開後做好,最多升232點,收19,176點,升195點,主板成交額僅較周二微升1%至406億元。受惠中港合作的中資券商股最標青,海通證券(06837)及中信証券(06030)升幅介乎2至3%。

回歸十五周年在即,坊間唔少聲音建議特區新政府,唔好再要求阿爺擴大來港個人遊範圍,以免繼續拉動本港物價以及零售商舖租金。事實上,受經濟放緩影響,內地訪港旅客消費力也明顯有下降迹象。美銀美林報告估計,本港零售銷售在未來個別月份,會回落至單位數字增長,全年計,會由首四個月的14.7%放緩至8至10%。

52周新低股湧現 後市危

本報訊】港股經歷「五窮月」後,6月不但未有陷入「絕境」,恒指更反彈近3%。不過,大市看似風光,其實內裏滄桑!本月至今19個交易日中,恒指10升9跌,但創52周新低的股份數目,竟是創52周新高的四倍,反映股份普遍仍然向下,大戶「托沽」(托指數沽貨)手影表露無遺。

創新低創新高比例4:1

彭博資料顯示,6月共有319隻股份曾創52周新低,佔整體港股近20%;相反,突破52周高位的股份只有63隻,兩者差距達四倍。單睇藍籌,本月曾創一年新高的只有兩隻,均為內房股,就是中國海外(688)及華潤置地(1109)。至於創新低的就有7隻,包括神華(1088)、中煤(1898)、華創(291)、聯通(762)、煤氣(003)、國壽(2628)及中鋁(2600)。單計昨日,創新高的股份只有7隻,而創新低的股份就有44隻。

看好两地金融融合 股市越万九

看好两地金融融合 股市越万九
http://paper.wenweipo.com [2012-06-28]

香港文汇报讯 (记者 周绍基) 为庆祝香港回归15周年,中央再公布六大方面的支持香港发展措施,其中金融措施占大部分,包括推出市场期待已久的内地与香港两地市场互相挂牌的交易所买卖基金(ETF)。市场炒作两地金融融合,加上本地地产股造好,令港股收升195点,重上万九大关。财库局局长陈家强认为,措施可有效打通两地金融市场,为香港进一步推出更多以人民币定价的投资产品打下基础。

中央挺港惹市场炒作,作为港股ETF的热门配搭蓝筹及国指成份股个股受捧,令大市在昨早新华社公布措施后越升越有,恒指最后收报19,176点,升195点或1.03%,成交额略增至407亿元。国指则收报9,461点,升62点。

輪商精選:中銀受惠最直接 吼18048

輪商精選:中銀受惠最直接 吼18048
今日是港股期指結算日及歐盟峰會展開的大日子,而「七一」臨近,內地官媒昨日率先報道中央政府出台一系列加強中港合作的政策措施,其中包括經貿合作及金融合作等六大方面,港股輕微高開後迅速重上19,000點關,收報19,176點,升195點,惟成交金額仍然低迷,僅406億元。

技術上,恒指昨以陽燭收高於5日線(19,063點)及10日線(19,172點)之上,如能持續守於該兩條平均線上,恒指有機會繼續藉「送大禮」效應向上,倘進一步回補上周五下跌裂口19,089至19,258點,可望挑戰六月高位19,579點。投資者如認為大市已蓄勢待發,看好可留意活躍的輕微價外認購證18457,行使價19,508點,十月到期,實際槓桿10.9倍,引伸波幅23%;如看淡可考慮輕微價外認沽證18752,行使價18,000點,十二月到期,實際槓桿7.2倍,引伸波幅25.3%。

中央送禮未見驚起

雖然「七‧一」未到,但內地官媒已率先披露「送禮」概要,中央計劃在六個範疇推動中港合作,受消息刺激,期指結算前夕好友反擊,恒指最多漲232點,重越萬九關。儘管昨日恒指漲幅最終縮窄至195點,收報19,176點,港股總成交更只有407億元,但有證券界認為,主要原因是「大禮」暫時只有大框架,細節尚未清楚所致,市場盛傳日內還會有後續消息曝光。

港股連升兩日,並重越十天線,然而部分好友「食胡」,即月期指低水16點;滬深股市持續偏軟,限制國指漲幅,全日僅漲62點,收報9,461點。投資者觀望歐盟峰會結果,窩證成交昨萎縮至僅91.8億元,較周二減少逾5%,當中牛熊證成交額47.9億元,較周二52.4億元下降8.5%,窩輪則減少2.2%。惟「空軍」不敢直攖其鋒,港股沽空金額跌11%至44.28億元,沽空比率仍高企10.89%。

TOP 10 HK Dividend Yields Sport Seven Lenders

TOP 10 HK Dividend Yields Sport Seven Lenders

Written by Andrew Vanburen (China Correspondent)
Tuesday, 26 June 2012 20:22

hkdiv2
Payback Time: Hong Kong-listed top dividend yield stocks


禮到撐港股 恒指重越萬九

禮到撐港股 恒指重越萬九

在「七.一」的日子仍未到,內地官媒已率先披露「送禮」概要,中央計劃在六個範疇推動中港合作,受到消息刺激,期指結算前夕好友反擊,恒生指數最多漲232點,重越萬九點關。儘管昨日恒指漲幅最終縮窄至195點,收報19,176點,港股總成交更只有407億元,但有證券界認為,主要原因是「大禮」暫時只有大框架,細節尚未清楚所致,市場盛傳日內還會有後續消息曝光。

Hyflux: More details, please: how much could it earn from latest Oman deal?

One step closer to another project win in Oman

[27/6/2012] – Hyflux has pre-qualified for an Independent Water Project (IWP) in Oman, in partnership with Mitsui Corporation and Al Tahir Group.

Six other groups have pre-qualified for the project, says DBS Vickers.

Analyst Tan Ai Teng at DBS Vickers estimates the project to be worth US$300-US$400 mln.

Echo’s Location Masks Deeper Woes

27 JUNE 2012
Echo’s Location Masks Deeper Woes
By Dow Jones Newswires

Echo Entertainment Group’s top asset is The Star casino in Sydney. A near billion-dollar revamp over the past four years has included a new Momofuko restaurant and Tao Group nightclub that bring a taste of the Vegas Strip Down Under.

But the investment has yet to pay off.

Golden Agri : More details, please: how much could it earn from latest Oman deal?

OCBC reduces CPO price estimate, target price

[27/6/2012] – Golden Agri-Resources says more than 700 million in-the-money warrants will be exercised in less than a month.

Issued in 2009, each of the 705,493,728 warrants can be converted in a new share at an exercise price of S$0.54 before July 23, 2012.

The exercise price is lower than the market price of company’s shares therefore, making it attractive to convert the warrants into shares.

Oil paint on a thick brush (AM)

Oil paint on a thick brush

In this report we aim to paint with broad strokes trends in the oil and gas markets, largely based on the treasure-trove of data in BP’s Statistical Review of World Energy 2012 released two weeks ago.

WORLD OIL: Consumption exceeded production by 4.5mbpd, and spare capacity is tight at about 3% of global demand. The oil market has become supply-driven, hence we do not foresee any sustained fall in oil below $70/barrel, sustaining global E&P activities.

Yangzijiang : Next higher peak: Offshore rig-building (AM)

Yangzijiang Shipbuilding
LAST CLOSE: S$1.010
FAIR VALUE: S1.680
Next higher peak: Offshore rig-building

Business
Yangzijiang builds containerships and bulk carriers, and has just entered the shipbreaking industry. It also has a large financing arm to generate returns on the shipbuilding deposits. Its next big target is the offshore rig-building market.

Investment merits
• Strongest cost-control culture of all shipyards in China: YZJ has delivered record profits in each of the last 5 years since listing in 2007, growing the bottom line from CNY860m to CNY4.0b in 2011. This is most laudable given the slump in the shipbuilding market since 2008. Many shipbuilders have begun going into the red this year, yet we still expect another record-setting CNY4.2b this year on the back of high-margin orders won in the boom years.

Nam Cheong : Going for a song (AM)

Nam Cheong Ltd
LAST CLOSE: S$0.181
FAIR VALUE: S$0.280
Going for a song

Business
Nam Cheong is the dominant builder of small-medium Offshore Support Vessels (OSVs) in Malaysia. It is growing through building larger and higher-specification vessels, commanding better prices.

Investment merits
• Expect 58% jump in EPS this year: 2011 was a poor year due to the low orders in 2009/10. Since then, orders have recovered and we project a 58% jump in EPS this year. The market is currently pricing on a backwards-looking basis.

CapitaRetail China Trust: Retailers’ growth vs. new Beijing mall supply (OCBC)

Fair value S$1.44
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.09
versus: Current price S$1.30
12m total return forecast 18%

RETAILERS’ GROWTH VS NEW BEIJING MALL SUPPLY
• Good commitment rates for new retail space
• Well-located malls
• Good dividend yield of 7.1%

Technics Oil & Gas : A rare dividend play amongst oil stocks (AM)

Technics Oil & Gas
LAST CLOSE: S$0.915
FAIR VALUE: S1.220
A rare dividend play amongst oil stocks

Business
Technics engineers and fabricates topside modules for offshore platforms and FPSOs, including electrical-generation and gas compressor modules. A key product is the Wellhead Satellite Platform for offshore Vietnamese oilfields. It is currently listing two subsidiaries on the Gretai Securities Market in Taiwan.

Investment merits
• Carve-out to unlock shareholder value: The Norr & Wecom Group to be listed on the GSM is likely to be valued in excess of 10x 2012F EPS, whereas Technics is now trading at 8.5x. The additional cashflow to Technics would be useful for growth and dividend payouts.

STX OSV : World-class OSV builder, bar none (AM)

STX OSV Holdings Ltd
LAST CLOSE: S$1.465
FAIR VALUE: S2.000
World-class OSV builder, bar none

Business
STX OSV is a world leader in building Offshore Support Vessels (OSVs). Its vessels are the largest and highest-specification in the industry—6 of the last 13 vessels named “Ship of the Year” were built by the company.

Investment merits
• Very high barriers to entry: European yards are globally recognized as world leaders in top-end shipbuilding. STX OSV’s focus on the extreme high end of sophistication shields it from Chinese competition at the low end.

Marco Polo: Punches above its weight (AM)

Marco Polo Marine Ltd
LAST CLOSE: S$0.325
FAIR VALUE: S$0.530
Punches above its weight

Business
Marco Polo operates a fleet of tugs and barges in Singapore and Indonesia, and half a dozen Offshore Support Vessels (OSVs) in Indonesia, Australia and Thailand. Its shipyard builds barges and OSVs, and its three drydocks provide vessel repair services. It recently entered into a partnership to own and operate bunker vessels, a market which has tremendous potential in Singapore. It is listing its Indonesian arm on the Jakarta Stock Exchange.

Keppel Corporation : The reliable 800-pounder (AM)

Keppel Corporation
LAST CLOSE: S$9.990
The reliable 800-pounder

Business
Keppel Corp is a global leader in rigbuilding, repair, and upgrading. It also performs ship conversions, repairs, and specialized building. It has infrastructure, logistics, and property development divisions too.

Investment merits
• S$8.4b outstanding order book is equivalent to just under 2 years’ division revenue, offering extremely high visibility. Deliveries are scheduled till 2015. We continue to expect more rig orders given the pressing need for exploration across the world.

COSCO Corporation: Watch your step (AM)

COSCO Corporation
LAST CLOSE: S$0.975
Watch your step

Business
COSCO is one of the larger shipbuilders in China, capable of building a wide range of merchant vessels and also offshore oil & gas assets. It also operates a fleet of bulk carriers.

Key risks
• Full valuations: COSCO is now trading at a forward P/E of 17x consensus FY12F EPS, which is rich considering that many quality companies in the sector trade closer to 10x.

CapitaLand: CEO retirement likely limited impact (OCBC)

CapitaLand
Fair value S$3.21
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.08
versus: Current price S$2.64
12m total return forecast 25%

CEO RETIREMENT LIKELY LIMITED IMPACT
• CEO succession next year
• Chinese exposure still key driver
• Attractive risk-reward

GOLDEN AGRI-A Buying Opportunity (DMG)

GOLDEN AGRI-A Buying Opportunity
Following our Asean Corporate Day in Singapore during which Golden Agri Resources met up with 11 fund managers, we are maintaining our Buy call as well as the stock’s FV of SGD0.97. Golden Agri’s stock price has been dragged down by weak market sentiment and a correction in palm oil price. We believe that palm oil price has bottomed, supported by Malaysia’s disappointing production and unfavourable weather in North America’s current soybean planting season. Golden Agri’s current cheap valuation represents a good buying opportunity.

K-REIT Asia: A fuller OFC (CIMB)

K-REIT Asia
Current S$1.03
Target S$1.17
A fuller OFC

We are net positive on K-REIT’s acquisition of another 12.4% in OFC, with increased control and good placement price outweighing slight negatives from higher asset leverage. Placement price of S$1.17 (15% premium to VWAP) could provide a benchmark for the share price.

We raise our DPU estimates and DDM-based target price (discount rate: 8.2%), factoring in accretion from the purchase. Maintain Outperform on favourable risk-reward. We see catalysts from an earlier bottoming of the office market and tax savings.

Frasers Commercial Trust:Strong uplift from refinancing (DBSV)

Frasers Commercial Trust
BUY S$0.965
Price Target : 12-Month S$ 1.26 (Prev S$ 1.24)
Strong uplift from refinancing

• Refinancing of its S$500m loan at 100 bps lower rate
• FY13F DPU to increase by up to 9.7%
• Maintain BUY at a revised TP of