Saturday, June 9, 2012

Money Mind 03.06.12- How solid are Asia's economic defences in the face of such an event?


Money Mind 03.06.12- Greek Crisis


A Greek Exit V "More Europe"

June 7, 2012
As investors and markets worry over the possible exit of Greece from the Eurozone, we look at the two main scenarios which could possibly unfold over the next few weeks: A Greek Exit, and, a Greek Stay.
Author : iFAST Research Team


With fresh elections in Greece in a fortnight, global capital markets have been on the edge of their seats, with many investors voting for a safety-first approach with their portfolios, sending global equity markets largely down over the past few weeks. The current political situation in Greece is a mess with neither the anti-bailout nor the pro-bailout side in control, the future of the Eurozone as it exists is uncertain, which markets detest with conviction as demonstrated by the past few weeks. With a conflicted population which embraces the Euro-currency but denounces the tough austerity program, the outcome of the vote on June 17 2012 and its impact on Greece’s tenure as a member of the Eurozone is anybody’s guess, given that both parties have declared themselves as “pro-Euro”.

Great Time to Buy Stocks?


China to the Rescue?


中国银行业辉煌难再续

012年 06月 08日 19:08
中国银行业辉煌难再续

中国出人意料地提高了储蓄者的回报,降低了贷款者的成本,但这一切要让银行买单。

对中国银行业来说,净息差是它们的主要利润源泉。中国银行(Bank of China)和农业银行(Agricultural Bank of China)去年的利息收入分别占到这两家银行总收入的70%和81%。而大洋彼岸的美国银行(Bank of America)这一比例只有48%。

在中国央行周四采取行动前,中国一年期存款利率上限和一年期贷款利率下限之差为2.4个百分点,而现在存贷款利差已收窄至1.5个百分点。在中国央行发布公告之后,中国多家大型银行已将存款利率较央行基准上调了四分之一个百分点。

8日收盘分析:降息无用 沪深股市再度高开低走

2012/06/08 16:22:02
8日收盘分析:降息无用 沪深股市再度高开低走

傅峙峰

沪深股市今日收跌。上证综指早盘高开后走势振荡,午后一路回落表现弱势,收盘前创本周新低。

截至收盘,上证综指报2281.45点,下跌0.51%,沪市成交637.6亿元;深证成指报9707.18点,下跌0.50%,深市成交578.4亿元。

盘面点评:

航天军工板块午后异动上涨。航天动力涨停,航天长峰、航天电器和哈飞股份等涨停。

锂电池板块走势强于大盘。科力远涨停,赣锋锂业上涨9.67%,天齐锂业上涨5.44%,亿纬锂能上涨3.17%。

Weekend Comment Jun 8: Keeping an eye out for bargains

JUDGING FROM THE doom and gloom scenarios thrown up daily by the media as Europe struggles to contain its deepening debt crisis, one can be forgiven for thinking that another global meltdown is all but certain.

In the latest sign of concern over Europe’s troubles, the Chinese central bank has cut interest rates for the first time since 2008 in a bid to shore up the world’s second-largest economy, which counts the continent as one of its key export markets.

內銀「洗倉」單日蒸發千億

內銀「洗倉」單日蒸發千億

中國人民銀行落實減息,然而同一時間調整存貸息率浮動區間上、下限,內銀利用存款利率上浮區間條款,存息「明減實加」,當中四大行一年期以內定存息率保持不變。內銀維持存息力拒存款流失,勢令淨利息收益率(NIM)縮窄,今、明兩年收入或下降6%及12%,消息拖累昨日內銀股遭「洗倉」,跌幅超過3%至接近5%,九隻內銀股市值單日蒸發967億元。

大行一年期定息不變

昨日工行(01398)、建行(00939)、農行(01288)、中行(03988)公布最新存款息率,利率「巧合地」一致,活期存息均用盡上浮區間,令息率僅由0.5厘輕微下降至0.44厘,一年期以內存息更維持與減息前不變,只有二至五年期存息跟隨基準利率下調。

谢国忠:降息不会提振楼市

谢国忠:降息不会提振楼市
2012-06-08 12:04:00 来源: 观点地产网(
观点地产网讯
针对央行自6月8日起降息0.25个百分点的决定,独立经济学家谢国忠在接受有关媒体采访时表示,中国楼市泡沫已经爆了,降息对提振楼市不会有影响。

6月7日晚,中国人民银行决定,自2012年6月8日起下调金融机构人民币存贷款基准利率0.25个百分点,此为2008年12月以来的首度降息。从6月8日起,金融机构一年期存款基准利率下调0.25个百分点,一年期贷款基准利率下调0.25个百分点;其他各档次存贷款基准利率及个人住房公积金存贷款利率相应调整。同时,将金融机构存款利率浮动区间的上限调整为基准利率的1.1倍;将金融机构贷款利率浮动区间的下限调整为基准利率的0.8倍。

Upside Call: Citigroup


Greece Debt Crisis



China's inflation eases, giving room for stimulus

China's inflation eases, giving room for stimulus
Published: Saturday, 9 Jun 2012

BEIJING - China's inflation fell further in May, giving Beijing more room to fight a deepening economic slump following this week's interest rate cut.

Consumer prices rose 3 percent, down from April's 3.4 percent rate, while politically volatile food price inflation eased to 6.4 percent from the previous month's 7 percent, data showed Saturday. The government's target is 4 percent for the year.

全球不利因素笼罩 投资谨慎隆股料走低

(吉隆坡9日讯)环球经济不稳定,预料将在下周拖低富时隆综指。艾芬投资银行散户研究主管纳兹里表示,中国预料之外的降息,以及美国联邦储备局对新货币振兴的可能性三缄其口,将进一步降温市场情绪。

他说:“风险情绪将集中在西班牙,尤其是惠誉将之降级,以及欧洲中央银行缓慢救助,避免西班牙被信贷市场拒之门外。”

投资者也将观察德国如何救助陷入困境的周边国家,因谣言指高评级的德国和法国,可能已不再拥有适当财务资源,以拯救他们的邻国。

张忠谋:欧债严重性不如2008年 没到世界末日



核心提示:目前欧债危机的困扰着整个世界经济,如果希腊正式违约甚至退出了欧元区,由此引发的连锁反应会带来什么后果我们不敢预料。但张忠谋认为即使出现上诉情况,也不会是世界的末日,欧债危机严重性还不如2008年的这个金融危机。

Lex专栏:中国降息表明经济放缓

2012年06月08日 06:24 AM
Lex专栏:中国降息表明经济放缓
英国《金融时报》 Lex专栏

中国经济正在放缓。中国官方昨日宣布降息,证实了这一点。中国政府肯定也清楚,将于本周末公布的5月经济数据将不会很好看。即便如此,鉴于这仍不算硬着陆,官方政策仍将是零敲碎打型的,刺激力度不如雷曼(Lehman)危机之后那段时期。此次放缓在很大程度上是中国“制造”的。正如2008年以来五次加息之后的第一次降息所显示的,中国的政策还有进一步宽松的空间。况且中国政府不像以往那样渴求经济增长。

中國降息‧大摩喊進馬股等6新興市場

中國降息‧大摩喊進馬股等6新興市場
Created 06/09/2012 - 18:07

(吉隆坡9日訊)中國降息0.25%救市、為3年半來首見,摩根士丹利證券火速將全球新興股市投資組合中的現金水位一口氣降至零、建議全力加碼全球新興市場(高於MSCI權重達10%),其中大馬、台灣、中國、韓國、俄羅斯、印尼是6個投資評等列為“加碼”的股市。

儘管亞股因美國聯儲局未推出QE3而出現失望性賣壓,但中國無預警宣佈降息0.25%,被外資圈視為重要指標。摩根士丹利證券新興市場首席分析師加納表示,中國降息是看好新興市場股市的3項原因之一。

外围不明朗 马股摇摆

展望来周,市场普遍相信马股呈下跌格局,並一致认为希腊国会重选结果牵引欧债后续发展,加上美国年中陆续出炉的经济指標,都成为主宰股市升跌的风向標。

大马富时综合指数按周挫跌2.97点或0.19%,以1570.62点结束交易。另外,一周成交量萎缩21.63%,至33亿7227万8000股,成交值同步下跌19.719%,至56亿4224万1000令吉。

英特太平洋证券研究主管冯廷秀预料,来周马股大部份时间料陷入1至2点的跌幅。不过,假设希腊选举或美国数据有正面发展,將有助马股止跌回扬。

经济恶化 因应低迷 全球央行降息压力日增

经济恶化 因应低迷 全球央行降息压力日增
Created 06/09/2012 - 17:16

(首尔9日讯)目前全球经济处于2009年衰退结束后最低迷情况,使各国央行采取行动提振景气的压力与日俱增。

韩国央行8日决议连续第12个月维持基准利率不变,观望欧债危机与中国成长减缓的后续影响,但越南央行同日宣布降息1个百分点以刺激经济,加入巴西、中国的降息行列。

韩国央行总裁金仲秀带领的决策理事会将7天期附买回利率维持在3.25%不变,符合经济学家预测。

謝國忠:投資過多‧中國高成長落幕

謝國忠:投資過多‧中國高成長落幕
Created 06/08/2012 - 19:20

中國經濟高成長的風光年代即將走到盡頭!隨著全球陷入景氣陰霾,中國恐怕也難以獨木支撐大局,今年要達成經濟成長率7.5%的目標,開始有了難度,未來預調微調政策的落實不僅考驗當局的智慧,也是驗收這些穩增長措施能否奏效的關鍵。

《華爾街日報》報導,中國20多年來經濟成長動輒都是兩位數以上,十分風光,羡煞世界各國,不過這項高成長的年代也有畫下句點的時候,中國領導人在今年3月改變自2005年以來一直設定的經濟成長目標,由原訂的8%目標降至7.5%,這項調整非比尋常。

匯豐:中國減息帶動‧亞洲料適度寬鬆貨幣

匯豐:中國減息帶動‧亞洲料適度寬鬆貨幣
Created 06/09/2012 - 13:12

(吉隆坡8日訊)中國人民銀行意外宣佈降息0.25%,令市場關注亞洲各國會否尾隨,引發區域降息潮,匯豐全球研究認為,考量歐債疑雲及經濟數據轉弱,其他經濟體陸續降息似已在市場預期內,惟即使出現降息潮,寬鬆程度亦應不會太過激烈。

匯豐表示,各經濟體利率目前仍低於雷曼兄弟倒閉事件在2008年9月爆發前水平,況且,結構性物價壓力目前仍在成長,一旦風險胃納復原,資產價格可能繼續上飆,通膨風險仍高企。

“政策利率目前仍低於中和水平,處在振興範圍內,這顯示即使出現降息潮,也不至於太激進,而且即使經濟重現2008年杪時慘況,大多數經濟體轉用財政政策反而能更有效維持經濟成長。”

中國突降息‧外媒:更多壞消息將至

中國突降息‧外媒:更多壞消息將至
Created 06/08/2012 - 19:23

中國週四出人意料地宣佈降息,在5月份經濟數據即將公佈前夕,這一舉措令經濟學家疑心中國經濟領域將有更多壞消息傳出。

美國《彭博社》:
經濟形勢弱於政府預期

中國在宣佈5月份通膨、投資和工業增加值數據前夕宣佈降息,可能顯示目前的經濟形勢弱於政府的預期。報導援引瑞穗證口亞洲公司首席經濟學家沈建光的話說,將於週末期間公佈的5月份經濟數據肯定非常疲弱,而5月份的通膨率肯定已經大幅回落。

杨忠礼通讯 膺年度最创新服务供应奖

杨忠礼通讯 膺年度最创新服务供应奖
Created 06/09/2012 - 11:20

(吉隆坡8日讯)杨忠礼电力(YTLPowr,6742,主板基建股)旗下杨忠礼通讯(YTL Communications)的Yes 4G服务,获颁2012年Frost & Sullivan亚太区ICT颁奖典礼的“年度最创新服务供应奖”。

杨忠礼通讯在文告上指出,Yes 4G服务已投入商业服务18个月,这个奖项证明了在新时代和4G创新无线科技时代的来领,大马正走在世界的前端。

Commodity suppliers: DBS Vickers bullish on Noble, cautious on Wilmar and Olam

Ben Santoso and Mervin Song, analysts at DBS Vickers, believe the next few quarters could be rough for the three Singapore-listed commodity supply chain managers — Noble Group, Wilmar International and Olam International. Santoso and Song — who have 24 years’ experience covering plantations and equities between them — believe volumes and margins of the three supply chain managers could take a hit, given volatile demand and supply in the current environment.

“For the three supply chain managers, problems will arise when there is a sudden and unexpected downside shock affecting both supply and demand, as overcapacity can become expensive to maintain,” says Santoso. “On the other hand, when volumes pick up, we are likely to see higher borrowing costs, which may not be as easy to pass on to customers because of the anticipated long period of weak economic growth. In addition, margin enhancements through hedging and taking positions can also be less opportunistic in a more volatile environment.”

69岁的罗杰斯来杭妙语如珠

69岁的罗杰斯来杭妙语如珠
2012-06-09 06:38:00 杭州网
21世纪是中国的 朝鲜值得投资

手中的中国股票打算持有100年
罗杰斯来杭州了。昨天下午杭州国际会议中心杭州厅,千人会堂座无虚席,长三十米左右的演讲台上只有一个人:吉姆·罗杰斯。

21世纪是中国的世纪

粉红领结、背带裤、一身黑条西装,罗杰斯就是一个绅士,在人群中,他没有鹤立鸡群的身高,也不金光四射,只是一个寻常的美国老人。

PhillipCapital Weekly Market Watch 08.06.2012


香港:李嘉诚商业王国的财富地理

香港:李嘉诚商业王国的财富地理
http://www.sina.com.cn 2012年06月07日

魏一平

  长江中心,李氏王国

  要领略香港的繁华,每晚20点上演的“幻彩咏香江”无疑是最佳窗口。这个由香港旅游发展局(微博)开发的镭射灯光音乐汇演,由维多利亚港两岸的45栋摩天大楼组成。站在尖沙咀码头望向对岸的中环,标志性的中银大厦右侧,一座高70层的玻璃幕墙大厦方方正正,这里就是李嘉诚商业王国的总部所在——长江集团中心。与周围造型夸张、个性十足的摩天大楼比起来,香港媒体习惯用这座大厦的造型来形容李嘉诚的性格——谨慎而刚正。

券商預測 今年料少賺11% 中小型衝擊最大

券商預測
今年料少賺11% 中小型衝擊最大



內地減息同時放寬存貸款利率管制,券商認為,此舉是內地利率市場化的大躍進,代價是整體內銀淨息差和盈利將會受壓,最大的影響來自擴大存款利率上浮空間。綜合四間外資券行預測,9間本港上市內銀的淨息差將收窄7至23個基點,削減今年盈利預測4%至11%。部份券商相信,存貸比率較高及盈利能力較差的中小型銀行,所受的負面打擊最大。

摩通報告指,短期而言,減息有利於存款基礎強勁的大型銀行,降低資金成本,但長遠將為小型銀行打開競爭窗口,通過提高存款利率來增加市佔率,反而提升整體的資本成本。

開戰搶存款內銀雙失

開戰搶存款內銀雙失
息差受壓損盈利 股價全線挫

【本報訊】中國首次容許內地銀行存款利率按官方牌價上浮1.1倍,為利率市場化邁步。各大小銀行亦展開存款攻防戰,較市場意外是五大行率先將活期存息上浮10%的空間「用盡」,3個月至1年定存息亦更新,按官價水平再加0.25厘「局部」上浮調整,剛好抵銷減息幅度影響。 記者:劉美儀

憂慮內銀定存息變相不變,但貸款利率下調和下浮(0.8倍),銀行息差被壓縮,且內銀存款競爭趨熾熱影響,內銀 H股價全線跌3%至5%。

胡立阳:巴菲特价值投资理论在亚洲是否行得通

胡立阳:巴菲特价值投资理论在亚洲是否行得通
时间:2012-06-04 07:56:50 来源:胡立阳博客

胡立阳:我在各地演讲时,投资人常会问我一个问题,那就是巴菲特的价值投资理论,在亚洲是否也行得通?因为买进的一些自认为具备条件的蓝筹股,常常一段时间之后也是表现不佳,令他们深感纳闷。

我一直提醒大家,价值投资的用意原是好的,但是对于一般口袋不够深的投资人,更需注意的一件非常重要的观念是,买进股票的“时机与价位”。若你买在高档,再好的股票不但没有获利空间了,而且还有可能会让你严重套牢一段时间。

那么,要如何知道高档来临了呢?我在过去我所写的书里,都有一一说明过。这其中有一项就是,当股市遇上了“涨一倍卖压”时,充满麻烦的高档就出现了。

Fibonacci Retracement – Waiting For The Right Moment (Part II)

08 JUNE 2012
Fibonacci Retracement – Waiting For The Right Moment (Part II)
By Chart Nexus

We hope that you have gotten familiar with the identification of support and resistance levels using Fibonacci Retracement after reading part one of our two-part article. Coming into the second half, we will see how Fibonacci Retracement levels can be used in conjunction with other indicators to help in analysing the stock chart. This is known as the confluence of signals. The combination of other indicators further enhances and compliments the usage of Fibonacci Retracement levels, thus, resulting in a higher probability of a successful trade. In this article, one of the most popular indicators used by many traders, the 100-day moving average is used to analyse the stock chart of Goodpack which is shown in Figure 1.

Robert Kiyosaki’s Definitions Of Assets And Liabilities Are Wrong!

08 JUNE 2012
Robert Kiyosaki’s Definitions Of Assets And Liabilities Are Wrong!
By Dennis Ng

I observed that many people have misconceptions about personal finance. Actually, I do not find it surprising at all. Because before 1998, I knew nothing about personal finance and similarly held many misconceptions in this aspect.

Among the many books on personal finance, the book entitled “Rich Dad, Poor Dad” written by Robert Kiyosaki, is one of the most popular books in the world.

Growth In US Service Industries Was Little Changed In May

08 JUNE 2012
Growth In US Service Industries Was Little Changed In May
By Bloomberg
Service industries in the United States (US) expanded in May at about the same pace as the prior month, a sign the US is failing to gain momentum as employment slows and the European crisis intensifies.

The Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) index of non-manufacturing businesses, which covers about 90 percent of the economy, rose to 53.7 last month from April’s 53.5, the Tempe, Arizona-based group said. The median forecast of 75 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News projected 53.4. Readings above 50 signal expansion.

Genting S’pore shares fall to 8-mth low on Echo concerns

Shares of casino operator Genting Singapore fell to their lowest in eight months on Friday on concerns it may get involved in a costly takeover battle for Australia’s Echo Entertainment Group.

By 1:41 p.m., Genting shares had dropped as much as 3.3% to $1.45, the weakest level since Oct 5, 2011.

“When there’s an acquisition, there’s always a concern that someone will overpay,” said a Singapore trader.

Rotterdam of the East

The Star Online > Business
Saturday June 9, 2012
Rotterdam of the East

By Jagdev Singh Sidhu
jagdev@thestar.com.my

The landscape of Pengerang is going to change forever.

The southern tip of Peninsula Malaysia now is like a picture postcard of rural Malaysia. The undulating road bookend by plantation land on either side of the road is dotted with the occasional cyclist on a weekend excursion.

Catalyst for trading business

The Star Online > Business
Saturday June 9, 2012
Catalyst for trading business

Building an oil and gas hub in Pengerang has got a lot of people excited. One of the main reasons for that is the economic impact it would bring to not only the region but also to the country.

“We believe Malaysia has a natural endowment to become very good in oil and gas,” Performance Management and Delivery Unit CEO and Minister in the Prime Minister’s Department Datuk Seri Idris Jala (pic) tells StarBizWeek.

Analysts: Cash-rich Genting likely to be on gaming acquisition spree

The Star Online > Business
Saturday June 9, 2012
Analysts: Cash-rich Genting likely to be on gaming acquisition spree

SINGAPORE: Genting Bhd sits on more cash than any other gaming operator in the world, yet it is raising additional billions on the debt market, fuelling speculation that its stake purchase in Australia’s Echo Entertainment is just the beginning of an acquisition spree.

Genting, competing with Las Vegas Sands and MGM Resorts to dominate the Asian casino market, might target assets in Japan, South Korea and Mongolia, analysts said.

Time is of the essence in the property development sector too

The Star Online > Business
Saturday June 9, 2012
Time is of the essence in the property development sector too

FOOD FOR THOUGHT
By DATUK ALAN TONG

HAVE you been to the Immigration Department recently to renew your passport? I was surprised to hear from a family member that 45 minutes was all that she needed to renew her passport. The process of renewing a passport has indeed positively changed with the time.

I recalled in the past that it took months before one could get a passport renewed. The processing time then reduced to weeks, followed by days and eventually to 45 minutes.

A380 aircraft gives MAS the edge

The Star Online > Business
Saturday June 9, 2012
A380 aircraft gives MAS the edge

ANALYST REPORT

MALAYSIA AIRLINES
By Maybank IB Research
Hold (maintain)
Target price: 97 sen

THE unveiling of MAS' latest A380 livery was striking; the cabin product offering is a quantum leap improvement and on par with the industry's best from the likes of SIA and Emirates.

This is a big step in the right direction for MAS to win back customers and maintain its hold in the highly competitive long-haul market.

曾渊沧@股友通讯录 2012 年06 月份

各位朋友
去年,希腊国债危机爆发时,德国与法国联手。向希腊施压,要求希腊政府一定得走紧缩开支政策,不但要节流,还得加税开源,结果怨声四起。希腊国会选举,去年的执政联盟无法再执政,但反对派也取不到足够席位执政,只好等6 月17 日再选,重新投票。

希腊政府难产之后,全球股市江河日下,但不是一跌到底,而是反复向下,其间也出现不少反弹,很明显的,这是衍生工具在作怪,股市下跌的最大动力来自沽空盘,一般散户早已靠边站,剩下大户在对斗,大户斗大户,沽空者若不懂得见好就收,随时会被夹空仓。

Pavilion REIT: Single asset story for now (HwangDBSV)

Pavilion REIT
HOLD RM1.21 (Initiating Coverage)
Price Target : 12-Month RM 1.20
Single asset story for now
• Organic growth from Pavilion KL to drive earnings
• ROFRs to Pavilion KL extension and USJ mall likely later rather than sooner
• Initiate with Hold and DCF-based RM1.20 TP

Single asset portfolio. Pavilion KL is the REIT’s crown jewel, contributing 98% of its FY11 revenues. It is one the most prime & popular malls in Malaysia, strategically located along Jalan Bukit Bintang shopping belt (KL's Orchard Road) and connected to KLCC via a covered pedestrian bridge.

Ezion Holdings:Expanding presence in GOM (DBSV)

Ezion Holdings
BUY S$0.715
Price Target : 12-Month S$ 1.35 (Prev S$ 1.32)
Expanding presence in GOM

• Secures another service rig contract worth US$86.3m
• Gaining traction with Pemex, foothold in GOM
• Contract to generate high ROE of ~50%, lift FY13F earnings by 5%; FY11-13 earnings CAGR at 53%
• Maintain BUY, TP S$1.35

Yangzijiang Shipbuilding: PLH Acquisition Is Immaterial (UOBKH)

Yangzijiang Shipbuilding
Share price S$1.01
Target price S$1.58
Upside +57.2%
PPLH Acquisition Is Immaterial; Remains A Defensive Play Amid The Shipbuilding Downcycle

What’s New
• Sembcorp Marine (SMM SP/BUY/Target: S$5.80) has lost its legal tussle with PPL Holdings (PPLH) for a 15% equity stake in PPL Shipyard. SMM has stated it is obtaining legal advice with a view of appealing the decision.

We are downgrading Sing Tel to a HOLD (Limtan)

SINGTEL
S$3.12-STEL.SI
 We are downgrading Sing Tel to a HOLD as there are more attractive yield stories.

 Reaction to Sing Tel’s results for ye Mar ’12, when released on May 10th , had been lukewarm, despite management’s enunciating a dividend policy - 50-70% of profit. (Stock was then at $3.16.)

 At 15.8 cents a share for the latest fiscal year, Sing Tel shares yield 5.1%.

OSIM International: Stronger position to weather a storm (OCBC)

Fair value S$1.61
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.035
versus: Current price S$1.15
12m total return forecast 43%

STRONGER POSITION TO WEATHER A STORM
• On track to beat consensus’ PATMI est.
• Stronger resilience since last financial crisis
• Maintain BUY on undemanding valuations

传或卷入澳洲赌场收购战 云顶新加坡股价大跌

云顶新加坡昨日透露持有澳洲赌场Echo娱乐公司部分股权,触发了市场的担忧。这是它第一次披露持有Echo娱乐股权,市场似乎以此证实之前盛传的收购计划。云顶新加坡昨日虽没说持有多少Echo娱乐股权,却已足以点燃这轮市场的揣测。

王阳发 报道
ongyh@sph.com.sg

  云顶新加坡(Genting Singapore)因可能卷入澳大利亚赌场昂贵收购战的消息,股价昨日大跌4.33%或6.5分,这是它自去年11月以来最大单日跌幅,股价闭市时跌至1.435元,已来到2011年10月初以来的最低水平。云顶新加坡昨日的交易量,也显著比平时增加了60%,达到5559万股。

区域股市全线下滑

美国联邦储备委员会主席伯南克未就新宽松货币政策释放明确信号,令充满期待的投资者大失所望,昨日区域股市全线下滑,新加坡海峡时报指数持续走低,下挫21.37点。

  伯南克7日在国会作证时指出,欧债危机对美国经济和金融系统构成重大风险,可是未对近期美联储是否会推出新的宽松货币政策给出明显暗示。

  另一方面,由于西班牙经济前景恶化,国内银行系统急需大量资金注入,国际信用评级机构惠誉将西班牙国债评级由“A”级下调三个等级至“BBB”级,这距“垃圾级”仅两个级别,同时评级展望也为负面。

Tiger stands 'good chance' of returning to profit in Oct-Dec quarter

Tiger stands 'good chance' of returning to profit in Oct-Dec quarter
Updated 06:17 PM Jun 08, 2012
SINGAPORE - The chief executive of budget carrier Tiger Airways, which is part-owned by Singapore Airlines, has forecast that the carrier may return to profit in the October-to-December quarter after it resumes full flight operations in Australia, the Dow Jones news agency reported Friday.

"We stand a good chance (to return to profit) in our third quarter," Mr Chin Yau Seng said in an interview with Dow Jones in Singapore late on Thursday.

Genting buys stake in Australia's Echo

Genting buys stake in Australia's Echo
2012/06/09

US$234M INVESTMENT: Purchase raises the prospect of a battle for control over the Australian casino company

GAMING operator Genting said yesterday it had taken a US$234 million (RM737.1 million) stake in Echo Entertainment, raising the prospect of a battle for control over the Australian casino company with billionaire rival James Packer.

Packer, who wants to use Echo's licence to build a new casino complex in Sydney to attract more Asian high-rollers, has been agitating for change at Echo after building a 10 per cent stake in the company, and yesterday succeeded in ousting the company's chairman.

Will Asia follow China’s lead?

Will Asia follow China’s lead?
By Rupa Damodaran
rupabanerji@nstp.com.my
2012/06/09

China's surprise interest rate cut to boost growth on Thursday may
likely prompt other Asian central banks to loosen their monetary
policy, economists said.
Malaysia may be second in line after India to announce policy rate cuts, according to Credit Suisse.

Its economist Robert Prior-Wandesforde expects Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) to make the move, being “typically very sensitive” to global growth developments.

減息未能沖喜 幣策更需深思

人民銀行減息出現反高潮,內地股市及港股在減息後不升反跌,頗出人意料之外。正如全球央行一樣,人行在決定貨幣政策時,不應該以影響資產市場升跌為依歸,否則就會失去央行的獨立性。不過市場升跌畢竟是投資者行為的集體反映,雖然行動未必完全準確,間中或有反應過敏,畢竟是人心趨向的最直接投射,政策制訂者不妨細味咀嚼。

資產市場今次不升反跌,可從幾方面分析。首先是人行在減息之餘,同時開放金融機構的存貸款利率浮動區間,簡單說就是推高存息上限,壓低貸款下限,擠壓銀行淨息差,不利銀行盈利。內地金融股在減息生效後備受沽壓,對整體股市亦帶來沉重壓力。人行推動利率市場自由化,應是其長遠目標,吸收這次經驗,在展開下一步行動之前,需對各方面的影響作出詳細評估。

存息減變加內銀冧

人民銀行落實減息,然而同一時間調整存貸息率浮動區間上、下限,內銀利用存款利率上浮區間條款,存息「明減實加」,當中四大行一年期以內定存息率保持不變,有銀行甚至上調至3.575厘,較原本的3.5厘更高。內銀維持存息力拒存款流失,勢令淨利息收益率(NIM)縮窄,今、明兩年收入或下降6%及12%,消息拖累昨日內銀股遭「洗倉」,九隻內銀股市值單日蒸發967億元。

用盡存息上浮區間
昨日工行(01398)、建行(00939)、農行(01288)、中行(03988)公布最新存款息率,利率「巧合地」一致,活期存息均用盡上浮區間,令息率僅由0.5厘輕微下降至0.44厘,一年期以內存息更維持與減息前不變,只有二至五年期存息跟隨基準利率下調。

中港跌市反高潮 內房內銀天與地

中港跌市反高潮 內房內銀天與地

中港股市「反高潮」!市場憂慮內銀淨息差縮窄,內銀股遭「洗倉」,其中工行(01398)跌近5%,不過,一眾內房股卻受惠內地減息,逆市上升,恒大地產(03333)升7%,雅居樂(03383)升逾半成。美國聯儲局主席伯南克沒有暗示會推第三輪量寬(QE3),本港地產股受壓,昨恒指高開後倒跌175點,收報18,502點,「空軍」伺機反擊,沽空額增加56%,達65.04億元,沽空比率重上12.17%高位。

昨日滬深股市呈單日轉向,滬綜指下跌0.51%,收報2,281點,未能重越2,300點「政策底」,深成指下跌0.5%,收報9,707點。港股結束「三連揚」強勢,恒指高開119點後,隨即掉頭向下,最多下跌217點,一度失守18,500點關,國企指數同樣先升後回,午後跌幅一度擴大至151點,收報9,352點,下跌120點,港股總成交536億元。港股已連跌五周,恒指全周累跌56點,國指則累跌268點。

5大內銀齊加存息 股價全瀉

5大內銀齊加存息 股價全瀉
分析員﹕中央背後發功
2012年6月9日
【明報專訊】繼人行周四晚宣布「變相不對稱」降息後,內銀昨天自動站隊,國有五大行齊齊維持一年存息3.5厘,等同上浮1.08倍。貸款息下降,存款息不減,令內銀息差大收窄,昨天股價大瀉4%至5%。有熟悉央行操作的業內人士對本報表示,新政一方面可穩增長,另一方面令存款回流銀行,以便央行管理流動性,五大行更有可能是在指示下,事先做好調息準備。

人行減息兼首次容許上浮存款利率,綜觀各大行,中行(3988)、建行(0939)、農行(1288)、工行(1398)及交行(3328)五大行均未下調三個月至一年期定存利率(見表),一年期存息等同變相上浮0.25厘或1.08 倍,2年至5年期較長期存款則跟隨新基準利率。

基金透视:中国经济不会硬陆 沪深股值得逢低吸纳

基金透视:中国经济不会硬陆 沪深股值得逢低吸纳
http://paper.wenweipo.com [2012-06-09]

霸菱投顾
 因担忧欧债危机再度蔓延、中国经济大幅放缓,截至5月31日为止,MSCI中国指数第二季以来下跌8.24%,但表现仍略优于新兴市场指数的-12.98%。

市场悲观 股市价值被低估
 尽管未来全球经济前景确实存在风险,但投资者对中国经济前景展望过分悲观,导致其股市评价都在低档区徘徊。而从我们的角度看来,中国应不会出现硬陆,因此当前偏低的评价反而创造投资者逢低买入中国股市的不错时机。

道富料内地联手欧美救市

道富料内地联手欧美救市
http://paper.wenweipo.com [2012-06-09]

 香港文汇报讯(记者 陈远威)内地今日将公布5月份经济数据,市场估计可能由于数据表现不太理想,因此人民银行突然宣布于昨日开始减息0.25厘,以刺激经济。道富环球投资管理亚洲副总裁兼证券投资组合策略师黄嘉权预期,人行今年底将会再次减息至少一次,每次幅度0.25厘。

 黄嘉权昨表示,原先估计人行会先收紧存款准备金率,然后再于第3季减息,长远而言减息是在预期之内,而提早减息相信与5月份内地经济数据表现有关。他预期,内地年底会减存款准备金率1至2次,之后可能会再有减息,相信未来的减息幅度仍然维持0.25厘一次,时机则要视乎欧洲区市况,内地或联合全球央行同时行动,以刺激整体经济。

爆吸储战 内银股全线跌 人行推进利率市场化 内银息差收窄盈利减

爆吸储战 内银股全线跌 人行推进利率市场化 内银息差收窄盈利减
http://paper.wenweipo.com [2012-06-09]

■利率渐趋市场化,银行间竞争将加剧
香港文汇报讯 (记者 马子豪) 人行日前宣布减息的同时,又令人意外地,扩大存款利率上浮及贷款利率下浮的弹性,言即存款利率实为「明降暗升」,在内地存款争夺战剧烈下,不少内银均用尽该区间上限,调整活期及部分定期存款利率抢客。

但分析认为,此为内地推行利率市场化的重要一步,意义深远;但另一边厢,却令内银息差进一步收窄,拖低银行盈利,内银股价再全线下挫。工行(1398)跌势最急,挫4.91%,股价全周则累跌9.36%;而交行(3328)及建行昨亦跌4%。

一年期存息变相加至3.575厘
人行正式宣布,昨日起下调1年期存贷基准利率各0.25个百分点,存款及贷款基准利率分别降至3.25%和6.31%。为免市场流动性剧增,人行亦同时宣布银行可自行上调存款利率,上限为基准利率的1.1倍,即可上浮10%;贷款利率浮动区间的下限调整为基准利率的0.8倍。若银行用尽浮动区间,一年期存息变相加至3.575厘,贷款息率则减至5.048厘

A股高开低走 周跌4%

A股高开低走 周跌4%
http://paper.wenweipo.com [2012-06-09]

 香港文汇报讯(记者 蔡竞文、裘毅)央行3年半以来首次意外降息,想像中的大升市并未到来。沪深两市高开逾0.5%后,由于减息消息同时令人担心内地经济走势欠佳,令投资者变得谨慎;加上提高利率浮动空间,银行股盈利受压,沪深两市双双转跌,沪综指收报2,281点,跌0.51%,成交637.6亿元(人民币,下同);深证成指报9,707点,跌0.50%,成交578.4亿元。本周沪指下跌3.88%,深指下跌4.32%。

受惠减息 房产铁路水电股俏
 沪综指高开0.57%后震荡走低,开盘微涨0.24%的工商银行亦转为下跌1.43%。央行减息的消息,较市场预期来得快,并非按惯例在宏观数据公布之后。分析人士认为,一方面可能是5月份数据不佳,预先微调。另一方面是为了提前应对下周即将举行的希腊大选以及欧债危机的深化。在市场担忧经济形势之下,股市在上午10时后转为下跌0.23%。之后再转升,但午后股指再度震荡下跌。

减息未「股」舞 3连升断缆

减息未「股」舞 3连升断缆
http://paper.wenweipo.com [2012-06-09]

香港文汇报讯(记者 周绍基)内地减息本是好消息,但弱市难扶,亚洲股市昨日全面下泻,港股先升后跌176点收市。分析指出,市场一早已预期内地会减息稳经济,减息的利好作用很快就被消化;反而人行突然提前减息,令人忧虑今天公布的内地5月份的经济数据表现差劲,加上美国无意于此时推QE3,故大市无法逆转低迷气氛。至昨晚欧美股市亦偏软,港股ADR则变动不大。

 受外围股市下挫拖累,沪深A股由升转跌,港股昨高开119点后反覆向下,忧虑减息令息差收窄及影响盈利,内银股全线受压,负债重的行业则获刺激,内房股扬升,电力股亦造好。恒指收报18,502点,跌176点,令三连升断缆,成交535亿元。总结全周,恒指仍跌56点。

Analysts-on-Chinese-central-banks-move-to-cut-rates

Singapores-growth-expected-to-slow-in-next-decade

Citigroup To Resubmit 2012 Capital Plan


Buy Apple, Not Facebook


Focus on Europe or China?


What Every Investor Must Know About Business Trusts


Expect More Rate Cuts From China in Second-Half: Economist


2012-0604-57金錢爆(大熊寶殿)


Genting sparks takeover talk

Genting sparks takeover talk
Stake in Echo raises prospect of battle for control of Australian casino company with Crown
04:45 AM Jun 09, 2012
SINGAPORE - Casino and resort operator Genting Singapore yesterday said it had taken a stake in Echo Entertainment, raising the prospect of a battle for control over the A$3 billion (S$3.8 billion) Australian casino company with Melbourne-based rival Crown.

A Genting spokeswoman declined to comment on whether the company was considering a takeover offer or disclose the size of the stake, but the casino operator said in a statement the total value of its investment in publicly quoted securities was S$298 million. The Australian newspaper said earlier in the day that Genting had built up a 4.9-per-cent stake in Echo, which runs Sydney's Star casino and Jupiter's on the Gold Coast.

Friday, June 8, 2012

降息是恐慌跡象 中国经济接近衰退

香港8日讯)Asianomics机构的首席经济学家韦卓思(Jim Walker)说,中国自2008年以来首次降息並放鬆对存贷款利率的控制,这是「恐慌的跡象」,不会对提振经济有任何帮助。

韦卓思表示「降息的时机令人意外,但我认为这恰恰表明中国经济到底有多疲软,我们认为中国经济非常接近衰退。」

「全世界走向衰退」信號

中国的降息举措可能表明,世界第二大经济体成长弱于政府的预期。5月份的通胀、投资和工业增加值数据將于週六公佈。韦卓思说,中国降息是「全世界正走向经济衰退」的又一个信號。

Valuations of Singapore stocks not expensive - Citigroup

Citigroup said the Straits Times Index is currently at a forward price-earnings ratio of 13.5 times, near the normal support level of 13.0 times, while based on trailing price-to-book, the STI is trading at 1.25 times.

“These valuation levels are unfairly pricing in a mild recessionary outlook, given our GDP expectations of 3.6% this year,” Citi said.

〈鉅亨主筆室〉全球經濟還會再壞多久?

〈鉅亨主筆室〉全球經濟還會再壞多久?
鉅亨網主筆 邱志昌  2012-06-08

壹、前言

還會再壞多久?這句話最近成為學術研討會上大家互動的問候語。去年下半年,歐洲主權債務危機發生之後,今年3月起,全球股市與期貨市場出現明顯負面影響,4月起實體經濟已漸感寒意,實質經濟面也已受到影響。

依國內主要媒體的訪談與調查,我們發現自今年4月,日本前財政官員榊原英資( Eisuke Sakakibara)應邀到台灣演說、及之後我國鴻海集團董事長郭台銘對未來全球的產業發展,提出悲觀看法與見解;全國工業總會許勝雄理事長也感憂心,對產業的發展也特別擔心與關心,他更是建議我國財經單位要及時全國召開財經會議,以應付呼嘯而來的歐洲主權債務危機。

Here’s Why China’s Interest Rate Cut Is a Really Big Deal

Here’s Why China’s Interest Rate Cut Is a Really Big Deal
Published: Thursday, 7 Jun 2012

China’s surprise 25 basis point cut in benchmark lending rates on Thursday caught economists and the markets by surprise, and could signal the economy is slowing faster than previously thought.

Most analysts had expected China to keep interest rates unchanged and to cut the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) for banks instead, thus allowing them to lend more of their deposits.

But the country's first rate cut since the global financial crisis in 2008 suggests industrial production data for the month of May, due on Saturday local time, will show a further deterioration in growth and an easing of inflation .

忧欧债威胁经济 伯南克未提QE3市场失望

忧欧债威胁经济 伯南克未提QE3市场失望
Created 06/08/2012 - 18:12

(华盛顿8日讯)美国联储局主席伯南克周四出席国会听证会,表示欧债危机对美国经济构成重大风险,若有需要刺激美国经济,联储局准备好采取行动,但他未有具体承诺会快将推出新一轮量化宽松(QE),令环球市场大失所望。

欧美股市早段本因中国意外宣布降息而上升,但伯南克的言论令股市升幅显着收窄。

尽管欧债危机升温、环球经济下滑势头加剧,但路透社形容,伯南克的语调并不见得有很强危机感。

從控制通膨轉為全力拼經濟‧中國意外降息料有第二波

從控制通膨轉為全力拼經濟‧中國意外降息料有第二波
Created 06/08/2012 - 17:42

繼澳洲中行日前降息0.25%後,中國人民銀行(中國中行,人行)也跟進降息。財金官員分析,人行開啟降息措施,目的是刺激景氣、維持經濟成長,也就是由過去的“控制通膨”目標,改為“全力拼經濟”。

這是中國3年半來首次降息,也代表中國在貨幣政策上進一步微調寬鬆,預計將會釋放更多資金,刺激中國經濟發展。

銀行經濟分析師指出,因中國經濟下滑壓力加大,人行已經把“刺激景氣成長”列為首要目標,預計今年內還有降息空間。

巴生谷捷运计划热潮退 投资者宜转看建材股

巴生谷捷运计划热潮退 投资者宜转看建材股
Created 06/08/2012 - 11:48

(吉隆坡7日讯)分析员认为,巴生谷捷运计划的双溪毛糯-加影线(KVMRT SBK)工程,为建筑领域带来的热潮已过,建议转看因需求高涨而前景看俏的建材股项。

巴生谷捷运计划中的双溪毛糯-加影线为经济转型执行方案(ETP)下,最大型的单项基建发展计划,工程合约总值200亿令吉。

截至目前,政府已发出了上述工程68%的工程合约,或相等于31份总值136亿令吉的合约。

进军非洲熔炼业务 马熔锡料获刚果采矿权

进军非洲熔炼业务 马熔锡料获刚果采矿权
Created 06/08/2012 - 11:54

(吉隆坡7日讯)券商看好马熔锡机构(MSC,5916,主板工业产品股)以40万美元(约120万令吉)收购非洲熔炼公司(ASC)40%股权,相信此举有助于公司在刚果共和国标得潜在采矿特许经营权,因而建议“买入”该股。

侨丰投资研究分析员指出,收购ASC股权之举将为马熔锡机构的业务揭开新篇章,这也是该公司首次直接参与非洲的熔炼业务。

先锋优势

“对马熔锡机构而言,这是一个好的开始。马熔锡机构拥有先锋的优势,可藉此在非洲熔炼市场站稳阵脚。”

战股隆隆:选好股 然后等待●君厚

战股隆隆:选好股 然后等待●君厚
Created 06/08/2012 - 13:05

最近几年,股神巴菲特频频出大手笔收购公司,他不论股市市场是好转还是转坏,都不改其所谓价值投资法的策略。

其实,他的投资方法就是很简单的,选好股,买入然后等待。

这方法对他来说是几乎万试万灵,但对于我们这些小投资者来说是看似简单,但实行上就不那么一回事了。

胡立阳: 投资法则你懂 但没做到


谢国忠:央行降息对股市楼市影响小 通胀或抬头

谢国忠:央行降息对股市楼市影响小 通胀或抬头
2012年06月07日 20:42
来源:凤凰财经 作者:张懿望

凤凰财经讯 6月7日,中国人民银行决定,自2012年6月8日起下调金融机构人民币存贷款基准利率。金融机构一年期存款基准利率下调0.25个百分点,一年期贷款基准利率下调0.25个百分点;其他各档次存贷款基准利率及个人住房公积金存贷款利率相应调整。

对此,独立经济学家谢国忠接受了凤凰网财经的独家连线,他表示,央行降息更多的是一种姿态,主要是为了提振信心,不会有太大的市场影响。

Container Shipping: Slowly but surely sliding (DBSV)

Container Shipping
Slowly but surely sliding
• Rate hike cycle is over, spot rates are correcting; Peak season surcharges tough to impose, expect rates to moderate for rest of the year
• Valuations likely to trend down to –1 S.D. levels, given current macro sentiment overhang
• Maintain Fully Valued on NOL, OOIL and CSCL; CSCL is most vulnerable to further rate declines

Spot rates have been correcting for last few weeks.
Shanghai to Europe spot freight rates have declined 14% to US$1666/TEU from its peak in early May, with load factor also retreating to 80%, suggesting that capacity increases are now putting pressure on rates. This echoes our view that aggressive freight rate hikes would be short-lived with more obstacles from both the supply and demand side, beyond May.

Starhill Global REIT: Stability with a few catalysts (Daiwa)

Starhill Global REIT
Share price (5 Jun): S$0.620
Target price: S$0.750  S$0.750
12-month range 0.560-0.660
Stability with a few catalysts

• Wisma Atria refurbishment gaining traction
• Toshin lawsuit closure could be a positive outcome
• Reaffirm Buy, target of S$0.75

 What's new
We met Starhill Global REIT (SGREIT) management on 6 June.
.

Neptune Orient Lines: Hazier outlook (DBSV)

Neptune Orient Lines
FULLY VALUED S$1.04
Price Target : 12-month S$ 1.00

Hazier outlook
• Profitability will improve sequentially in 2Q, but full-year losses still look likely for NOL in FY12
• More risk of rate declines as peak season may disappoint amid global economic woes
• Maintain FULLY VALUED with TP of S$1.00

UOB Kay Hian's Top Choices for Shelter from Dismal Markets


Biosensors International: Management positive on prospects (Daiwa)

Biosensors International Group
Management positive on prospects
Share price (5 Jun): S$1.170

• Management views itself as a market leader in the drugeluting stent market
• Guides for 20-30% YoY rise in FY13 revenue, boosted by full acquisition of JWMS
• Currently trading at a PER of 11.7x consensus FY13 earnings

Ascendas REIT: Fortified financial position (OCBC)

Ascendas REIT’s (A-REIT) share price performance has clearly attested to its resilience, gaining 10.4% YTD as opposed to a 4.3% increase in the broader market. The strength, in our opinion, is mainly attributable to its diversified portfolio of 102 properties, healthy lease profile, strong sponsor and quality management. Outlook is also expected to remain sanguine, with recent acquisitions and developments likely to contribute positively to its performance. We also note that A-REIT’s financial position had been fortified by the recent private placement and divestment of Goldin Logistics Hub. This is likely to provide it with greater financial ability to capitalize on growth opportunities, as well as secure borrowings at potentially more competitive terms to fund its committed investments. We maintain our BUY rating with an adjusted fair value of S$2.22 (S$2.31 previously) on A-REIT, after factoring in the developments.

人行急出手 經濟明顯不妙

人民銀行昨晚突然宣布減息,為三年半以來的首次,這個「基本平衡減息」方案,將一年期存款及貸款基準利率各下調四分一厘,本日(八日)起生效。不少經濟分析均認為,本次減息力度溫和,但推出時間較預期早,顯示內地經濟情況較市場預期來得差,未來或需要其他刺激增長措施,包括大規模財政政策來協助刺激經濟。

人行又將金融機構存款利率浮動區間的上限調整為基準利率的1.1倍,同時又將貸款利率浮動區間下限調整為基準利率的0.8倍,同日生效。

中央減息谷信心 調控留一手

中央減息谷信心 調控留一手
欄名:社評

中央昨突放鬆貨幣政策,雙管齊下減息,時機上不但較預期快,力度更超估計,目的應是要在此信心低迷之際,起震撼市場、振奮人心之效,在穩經濟信心戰上先聲奪人。惟此次出招實中藏虛,顯示中央對鬆貨幣政策仍留一手。

環球股市昨同造好,惟內地股市獨憔悴,上證指數連二千三百點的重要心理關口亦失守,底因是市場對經濟前景焦慮不安,尤其擔心中央預調微調仍續歎慢板,令經濟更添折騰。

微調落後形勢 減息製震撼效果

China has finally reduced its interest rate by 25 basis points (Limtan)

CHINA
 China has finally reduced its interest rate by 25 basis points for both the deposit as well as lending rate (lending rate to 6.31% and deposit rate to 3.25%), the first reduction since late 2008.

 And in an unprecedented move, it has also allowed banks to offer 20% discount to the lending rate, up from 10% previously and lenders will be allowed for the first time to offer savers deposit rates that are up to 10% higher than the official benchmark rate. This is done in response to pressure from the US to liberalize the interest rate environment in China to help increase domestic consumption. (The practice of keeping deposit rates below inflation rates has historically forced households to save excessively)

Armstrong has restarted its share buy back program (Limtan)

ARMSTRONG
S$0.265-ARMS.SI
 Armstrong has restarted its share buy back program yesterday, having bought 461,000 shares at 27 cents each.

 The new mandate allows the company to buy up to 49,413,035 shares.

 Yesterday’s buy back accounted for a significant 72.3% of the day’s traded volume.

Capitaland: Potential REIT policy risks: marginal impact (DMG)

Capitaland: Potential REIT policy risks: marginal impact
(BUY, S$2.58, TP S$2.82)
Near term weakness provides buying opportunity, recommend TRADING BUY. We noted news sources recently citing potential new REIT guidelines affecting the external REIT manager model adopted by the S-REITs which would likely have a minimal impact on CapitaLand in our view. CapitaLand as a beta stock has also corrected significantly with recent macro woes, which presents a good entry opportunity. As such we upgrade the stock to TRADING BUY with unchanged TP of S$2.82.

Malaysian Airline System: Airbus A380, good things comes to those who wait (MIB)

Malaysian Airline System
Hold (unchanged)
Share price: MYR1.10
Target price: MYR0.97 (unchanged)
Airbus A380, good things comes to those who wait

曾淵滄專欄 08.07.12:炒消息隨時接火棒

曾淵滄專欄:炒消息隨時接火棒

前日美股急升,帶動亞太股市高開。但動力只是一些市場傳言及一些憧憬,就是數日前我所說的,股市在大跌後,有人想博反彈,有沽空者平淡倉,有人挾淡倉情況下的自然反應。大家所憧憬的就是歐盟救市,市場傳出歐盟正在研究如何協助西班牙銀行渡過難關。實際上,歐盟早於歐債危機一開始時,就不停研究如何協助西班牙、意大利等歐豬國捱過困境。此研究從未停止,因此,這根本只是股市在一輪急跌之後,有大戶要博反彈所製造出來的炒作題材。我寧可等這些所謂消息證實後才行動。

有些人很喜歡炒消息,他們認為消息公佈後已沒得炒了,好消息公佈後,有人會趁機出貨,反而壓低股價。不過,若從另一角度來看,好消息始終是好消息,傳聞中的好消息與證實後的好消息,都是好消息,如果好消息證實後有人趁機出貨,正是買入的好時機,等這批短炒的人出完貨,好消息所帶來的正面力量,就會再度推起股價。

黃國英-對沖國度:迷信中資股 心態要改

對沖國度:迷信中資股 心態要改
星期一中資股轉弱勢是沒有睇錯,昨日的反攻之中,不少H股令人失望,亦令到恒指對比外圍表現為差,未見到中資股轉強證據之前,不宜對港股後市期望太高。

自己近幾日博反彈的主力,正如這一欄所講,是轉移至出口股之上,但除了龍頭利豐(00494)算是有些收穫之外,其他二線頭出口股表現仍是強差人意,自己已經是精挑細選比較強勢的股份,也是接近得個桔,可見市場氣氛之審慎。而這種經驗會磨滅人的鬥志,要有極強的信念,才有心機繼續博股票。

Hutchison Port Holdings Trust: Practically a Steal with Yield (KE)

07/06/12
Hutchison Port Holdings Trust:
Share price USD0.685
52-week price range USD0.550-0.920

Major shareholders
Hutchison Whampoa 27.6%
Temasek Holdings 12.0%
Capital Group 10.4%

Practically a Steal with Yield (KE)
Background: HPH Trust’s (HPHT) assets comprise mainly deep-water container port facilities in Hong Kong and Shenzhen, namely, Hongkong International Terminals (HIT), COSCO-HIT Terminals (COSCO-HIT) and Yantian International Container Terminals (YICT). In addition, HPHT also has interests in smaller river ports and ancillary services which complement its main terminal operations.

CDL Hospitality Trusts: Singapore room rates can grow substantially (OCBC)

On a worldwide basis, Singapore commands fairly high hotel room rates, but still has substantial room to grow in comparison to other quality destinations worldwide. Travelers from China, India, Australia, HK and the UK, which form half of the top ten places of origin for travelers to Singapore in 2011, are willing to pay 24-61% more for a hotel room in the most expensive destinations versus Singapore. Regional low-cost carriers will continue to further enhance the relative affordability of Singapore hotels and increase their ability to raise rates. We maintain a BUY rating on CDLHT and our fair value of S$2.04.

Ezion Holdings: New US$86m charter; raise EPS and TP (DMG)

Ezion Holdings: New US$86m charter; raise EPS and TP
(BUY, S$0.775, TP S$1.31)
Winning streak continues; re-iterate BUY. Ezion has secured a new four-year charter for a service rig from a national oil major (believed to be Pemex) valued at US$86.3m. The rig is expected to be delivered in Dec 2012 and will be the third unit to be deployed in the Sonda de Campeche field. We estimate that the latest project will add ~US$6.4m net profit per annum.

Following the new contract, we raise our FY13-14F earnings by 11% and 10% respectively. Consequently, our TP is revised upwards from S$1.25 to S$1.31, based on an unchanged target P/E of 10x on blended FY12/13F FD EPS. Maintain BUY.

Pavilion REIT: Initiate with a HOLD (HLG)

Pavilion REIT
Price Target: RM1.27
Share price: RM1.21
Initiate with a HOLD

Highlights
 Pavilion REIT owns and manages Pavilion KL Mall and Pavilion Tower, with floor space of 1.36m sft and 167k sft respectively (on NLA basis).
 Pavilion REIT is currently the largest M-REIT both in terms of retail assets and market cap.
 We like their emphasis on retail space, given the concerns of high incoming office supply for downtown KL by 2015.

KLCC Property hits five-year high on REIT rumours

KLCC Property hits five-year high on REIT rumours
In The Edge Financial Daily Today 2012
Written by Chua Sue-Ann
Wednesday, 06 June 2012 15:10

KUALA LUMPUR: KLCC Property Bhd’s stock (KLCCP) yesterday rallied to a five-year high of RM4.17, fuelled by speculation that it could soon inject its assets into a real estate investment trust (REIT).

The counter gained 2.82% or 11 sen to close at RM4 with 1.79 million shares traded yesterday.

内银股是否具投资价值?

笔者早前到欧洲路演,与会的投资者除担心欧洲前景之外,亦忧虑中国经济增长失速致硬着陆,这些担忧在最近股市走势上表露无遗。由于银行为百业之母,对经济活动敏感,市场忧虑经济前景而沽售内银股。

  股价受压,令内银股(香港上市大陆银行股)估值跌至具吸引力水平。目前四大国有银行的本益比约5倍,市账率跌至仅约1倍。早前中国总理温家宝提到大陆银行赚钱真的太容易,当真如此,现在内银股是否具供投资价值?

  单看新增贷款,内银股业务仍保持增长动力。虽然4月份新增贷款减少至约6000亿元(人民币,下同,约1187亿新元),但综合今年头四个月,新增贷款总额已达3万亿元,即等于市场预期大陆全年新増贷款总额达8万亿元的近40%,故内银股要录得增长并不困难。

中国:减息还是加息?

投资者套利 海指微跌

本地股市在前天大力回弹后,昨天因投资者套利而持平,新加坡海峡时报指数闭市时略跌1.57点或0.06%,收报2759.26点。

  相比之下,美国隔夜股市的表现更为强劲,基于投资者期待全球经济将出现更多经济振兴措施,道琼斯工商指数和标准普尔500指数都在周三取得今年以来的最大涨幅,涨幅分别为2.4%和2.3%,纽约自动报价指数则上扬2.4%。

  欧洲央行在周三的议息会议上决定将利率维持在现有水平。市场早前对欧洲央行降息抱有希望,会议上也不乏降息支持票,不过欧洲央行总裁德拉吉(Mario Draghi)表示,欧元区的政治领袖必须先对欧元的未来作出表态,因为这将有助稳定欧洲的金融系统,而欧洲央行也将继续密切关注局势,并在必要的时候采取行动。

Stocks jump on surprise Chinese interest rate cuts

Stocks jump on surprise Chinese interest rate cuts
But United States Federal Reserve chairman dispels hope for new stimulus
by AGENCIES 04:45 AM Jun 08, 2012
NEW YORK - Stock markets in the United States and Europe soared yesterday after China's central bank cut interest rates for the first time in four years in a surprise move to shore up slackening growth in the world's second-largest economy.

But the gains were dented after US Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke dispelled hopes for new stimulus in his testimony before a Congressional panel.

經濟腹背受敵 突放水免急煞

數據前夕
經濟腹背受敵 突放水免急煞

中國在本周六(9日)公佈5月主要經濟數據前,突減息﹗訊息難免令人聯想5月份的數據真的很差。彭博統計顯示,5月份中國固定資產投資和外商直接投資表現均遜於4月,中國經濟專家更警告,中國進行的結構調整,將導致經濟收縮兩年。

中國經濟面對內外利淡的因素影響,加上5月的通脹( CPI)可望持續回落,由4月的3.4%降至5月的3.2%;為人行減息提供空間。而國務院副總理回良玉昨日表示,中國將調整關稅並提供融資支持,以增加進口。

彭博統計顯示,5月的固投增速由20.2%降至20%;外商直接投資由跌0.7%降至跌1.6%。不過其他經濟活動則有輕微改善,當中工業生產值由9.3%增速至9.8%;零售由14.1%增至14.2%;出口增速由4.9%增加至7.1%;人民幣新增貸款由6818億元增加至7000億元; M2供應量亦由12.8%升幅上調至12.9%。

中國終減息救火

中國終減息救火
下調0.25厘 3年半首次

人行行長周小川昨宣佈減息,配合各國近期的救市行動。

【本報訊】面對歐債外圍形勢凶險,內地經濟下行壓力增大,中國人民銀行搶先在周末公佈重要數據前,昨晚宣佈下調人民幣存款貸款基準利率各0.25厘,是過去3年半來首次減息行動,亦配合全球救市鬆縛行動。當局又意外地擴大貸息率下浮及存款上浮彈性,分析指前者明顯是藉銀行以更低息率借貸,加大力度催谷信貸投放,以利率自由化保經濟增長。
記者:劉美儀 周燕芬

是次減息後,1年期人民幣定存及貸款利率,分別調整至3.25厘及6.31厘,但存款期越長,減幅越多,貸款則全期一樣,今日起生效。貸款息率下限由原來可低於基準利率的10%,擴大至可低於20%。為免減息令通脹重燃,人行又增加存息上限,至基準利率的1.1倍,以便將過剩資金吸回銀行體系。

Fundman睇市:內銀股可望威番次

Fundman睇市:內銀股可望威番次
美國聯儲局最新數字顯示,按全美劃分的十二個銀行區中,有十個在四至五月期間經濟錄得增長、招聘情況穩定上升,內容同上星期份就業數據,五月份新增非農職位增長縮至一年來最少大相逕庭。不過,消息無損華爾街對聯儲局兩星期之後議息,再有量寬措施推出的預期,尤其見到皇帝唔急太監急的情況,白宮消息話奧巴馬同德、英、意總理通話,敦促要協力解決歐元危機,維持區內經濟增長。

儘管暫時得個「講」字,但多國政府聯合救市的可能性增加,肥到着唔到襪的淡友,亦唔介意先鳴金收兵。前日偷步的港股,借美股創半年最大升幅來個反高潮,恒指最多升324點,收市前跌番一半出街,升得157點。收市後,人行唔等周六通脹數據出籠,出其不意減息四分之一厘,今次貸存息率一齊減,至少唔會對內地息差有太大壓力,一直擔心不對稱減息炒唔起的內銀股,睇怕有機會威番一次。

內地開水喉 港豪宅有景

內地開水喉 港豪宅有景

人民銀行昨晚突然減息,勢刺激「北水」加速湧入本港豪宅市場「掃貨」,消息透露,恒地(00012)昨率先乘勢啟動西半山天匯重推攻勢,主力原價推售低層15個入門版單位,呎價約2.42至3.5萬元,入場費約6,800萬元,並新增向買家送釐印費、車位或每戶價值達700萬元裝修,優惠佔樓價最多8%,同時,市傳代理佣金更調升至樓價最多5.5%。

對於內地銀行減息,新地(00016)執行董事雷霆認為屬好事,相信香港的低息環境將持續,有助準置業者下決定,而內地因有限購令,料減息將鼓勵更多中港商人來港置業。另外,長實地產投資董事郭子威相信,內地減息有助穩定經濟,香港亦間接受惠。

大規模救市勢出台

人行昨晚突宣布減息,為三年半以來的首次,這個「基本平衡減息」方案,將一年期存款及貸款基準利率各下調四分一厘,今日(八日)起生效。不少經濟分析均認為,本次減息力度溫和,但推出時間較預期早,顯示內地經濟情況較市場預期差,未來或需要其他刺激增長措施,包括大規模財政政策來協助刺激經濟。

隨時推「4萬億2.0版」
人行又將金融機構存款利率浮動區間的上限調整為基準利率的1.1倍,同時又將貸款利率浮動區間下限調整為基準利率的0.8倍,同日生效。

聯儲放風隨時開喉

美國經濟放慢加上歐債危機惡化,投資者憧憬聯儲局加碼「放水」,可能加推第三輪量化寬鬆措施(QE3)之際,聯儲局主席伯南克昨日出席國會聽證會,揚言當局準備好採取必要行動保護美國金融系統和經濟,但沒有作出實質承諾。伯南克現身前,多位聯儲局官員包括副主席耶倫,均異口同聲表示當局或有需要採取行動支持經濟。

伯南克沒有詳述當局可能採取的放鬆政策,但稱美國經濟受到歐債危機和財政緊縮前景威脅,歐債問題正對美國金融系統和經濟構成重大風險,會密切監察,並警告國會議員,若任由財政政策明年初開始大幅收緊,即出現所謂的「財政懸崖」,將嚴重威脅經濟復甦。伯南克又表示,未來數季經濟料溫和增長,通脹前景受控。

专家解读:政策转向宽松 年内或再减一次

专家解读:政策转向宽松 年内或再减一次
http://paper.wenweipo.com [2012-06-08]



香港文汇报讯(记者 海岩 北京报道)经济学家表示,中国央行此时降息符合预期,货币政策意味着转向宽松,年内还有一次降息可能,中国可能进入降息通道。

中国社科院金融所研究员李健表示,中国央行此时降息,原因是通胀率可能在短期内下滑至3%甚至以下的水平,这将减少降息面临的舆论压力;6月新增贷款的初步统计显示,企业的信贷需求仍不理想;此外,中国最大的贸易伙伴欧洲可能进入衰退,中国未来的贸易前景不明。

全球协同救市开始?

全球协同救市开始?
http://paper.wenweipo.com [2012-06-08]
 香港文汇报讯(记者 海岩 北京报道)随着近期中国、欧洲和美国一系列疲软经济数据的出炉,市场上要求各国当局进一步放宽货币政策的呼声越发高涨,在欧洲央行(ECB)和英国央行(BOE)先后维持政策不变后,中国央行宣布降息25个基点,跟随了稍早澳洲联储(RBA)降息的步伐。

 去年11月30日全球央行联手救市签署美元互换协议前,也是中国央行2008年以来首次将存备金率下调50基点。市场人士不禁猜测,今日中国央行2008年来首次降低存贷款利率是否意味着全球范围内新一轮重大行动即将启动。

中国央行突降息 三年半首次

中国央行突降息 三年半首次
http://paper.wenweipo.com [2012-06-08]

香港文汇报讯(记者 海岩 北京报道)经济外忧内患,令中国央行昨晚突然宣布减息四分之一厘,并调整利率浮动区间,这是内地三年半以来首次减息,中国正式加入全球减息潮。经济学家表示,中国央行采取减息这种刺激性手段,表现了中国稳定经济的强烈意愿,显示稳增长已成为中国经济的首要任务,在房地产调控、外围环境不景气的背景下,不排除进一步降低存款准备金率或降息的可能。

 根据中国央行公告,金融机构一年期存贷款基准利率分别下调0.25个百分点,其他各档次存贷款基准利率及个人住房公积金存贷款利率相应调整。调整后,一年期存款利率为3.25%,一年期贷款利率为6.31%。

赵世曾认为买楼比买股票更好

赵世曾认为买楼比买股票更好
http://paper.wenweipo.com [2012-06-08]

香港文汇报讯(记者 颜伦乐)四叔日前指「买股胜过买楼」,不过,卓能集团主席赵世曾就认为始终都是买楼较好,「楼可以摆得耐,靠通胀都会升,反而股票可能唔升」。也许亦是由于这种心态,旗下荃湾油柑头豪宅一号九龙山顶,因保护树木问题蹉跎4年半仍未批预售,集团上月突然撤回预售申请,准备下半年「卷土重来」,并将项目1、2期一次过申请卖楼,合共54个单位可望赶明年初现楼发售。

 一号九龙山顶由申请预售楼花同意书(俗称售楼纸)至撤回,时间竟然长达4年半(54个月),上月发展商突然撤回申请,赵世曾接受香港文汇报访问时解释,树木问题早已赔偿解决,现在只余下几幢别墅未完成建筑工程。他指,楼盘计划明年初合并第1及2期发售,合共54伙,由于未打算分两次申请预售文件,故上月先行撤回申请,下半年再重新将两期合并申请售楼纸。

人行突减息 港股料冲万九

人行突减息 港股料冲万九
http://paper.wenweipo.com [2012-06-08]

香港文汇报讯(记者 卓建安)憧憬各国央行救市,港股昨日连升三日,恒指收市报18,678点,升157点或0.85%,昨日港股沽空比例也连续第三日下降。有关憧憬昨日终于成真,人行突然于昨日晚间宣布减息0.25厘。有证券界业内人士认为,虽然人行减息市场已有所预期,但相信仍会对港股带来较大的刺激,恒指将首先挑战19,000点关口,但投资者仍要留意本月17日希腊国会选举结果对后市的影响。

淡友缩沙 沽空三连降
 港股昨日承接美股大幅上升的势头,裂口高开305点,之后很快就升至全日的高位18,845点,升325点。不过,港股在高位遇阻,之后反覆向下,最低仅升103点。国企指数昨日收市报9,473点,升35点,升幅为0.38%。港股昨日主板成交额为477亿元,较上日的461亿元略升,显示市场信心进一步好转。

Faber: U.S. Treasuries Are Biggest Bubble Ever


Cramer: Buy or Sell as Stocks Rally?


People's Bank of China Cuts Rates


Fed Not Ready to Pull the 'QE' Trigger Yet


Pimco's El-Erian Talks Equities & Rate Cuts


Market Headed for Major Sell Off?


China cut interest rates for frst time since 2008

China cut interest rates for the first time since 2008, stepping up efforts to combat a deepening slowdown as Europe’s debt crisis threatens global growth.

The benchmark one-year lending rate will drop to 6.31% from 6.56% effective tomorrow, the People’s Bank of China said on its website on Jun 7.

The one-year deposit rate will fall to 3.25% from 3.5%. Banks can also offer a 20% discount to the benchmark lending rate, the PBOC said, widening from a previous 10%.

Safehaven-investments-may-no-longer-be-valid-say-experts

2012-0606-57金錢爆(傑克這真是太柏南奇了)


Felda IPO - Best Idea Since Facebook's Debut?


Cody Willard: Why I'm the Idiot Buying Facebook


Thursday, June 7, 2012

China to cut interest rates amid growth slowdown Posted: 07 June 2012

China to cut interest rates amid growth slowdown
Posted: 07 June 2012
SHANGHAI - China said Thursday it will cut interest rates for the first time in over three years and allow banks more flexibility to set their rates, in what analysts said was a key step towards financial reform.

The nation's central bank said in a statement it would cut the benchmark one-year lending rate by 0.25 percentage points while the one-year deposit rate will fall by the same amount from Friday.

China Makes Surprise 0.25% Interest Rate Cut

China Makes Surprise 0.25% Interest Rate Cut
Published: Thursday, 7 Jun 2012

China delivered twin surprises on interest rates on Thursday, cutting borrowing costs to combat faltering growth while giving banks additional flexibility to set competitive lending and deposit rates in step along the path of liberalization.

The moves appeared to underline heightened concern among policymakers worldwide that the euro area's deepening debt crisis is threatening global economic growth.

谢国忠:今年将再下调存款准备金2次 降息机会小

谢国忠:今年将再下调存款准备金2次 降息机会小
时间:2012-05-25 08:35:45 来源:谢国忠博客

独立经济学家谢国忠出席第七届亚洲投资论坛时表示,预期内地第二季经济情况将较首季更差,料政府将加速投资项目,故第三季经济将较稳定。

谢国忠预计,今年内地将再下调存款准备金率(RRR)两次,但料作用有限,因目前企业营商环境差、向银行借贷困难。他认为,因现时内地通胀仍高企,房租及食品价格升幅达双位数,故内地减息机会小。


谢国忠表示,由于内地的出口疲弱,所以技术上人民币短线会受压,但长线认为人民币可以晋身国际货币。不过,内地要有政策改革,因为现时美元能够主导市场,是因为内地的政治问题,令不少富有的人都害怕政府,令资金有流出。他相信,透过政制改革,加上内地的经济体规模很大,长线能够成为主要货币。

PhillipCapital Weekly Market Watch 04.06.2012


MISC ‘not exiting’ NCB Holdings

MISC ‘not exiting’ NCB Holdings
In The Edge Financial Daily Today 2012
Written by Jose Barrock
Thursday, 07 June 2012 14:36
KUALA LUMPUR: MISC Bhd president and CEO Datuk Nasarudin Md Idris said the national carrier is not looking to sell its 15.7% stake in port operator NCB Holdings Bhd.

Speculation of MISC selling its block has been rife, especially after the shipping giant announced its intention to exit the liner business in late November last year.

Masterskill diversifies to stem fall in earnings

Masterskill diversifies to stem fall in earnings
In The Edge Financial Daily Today 2012
Written by Syarina Hyzah Zakaria
Thursday, 07 June 2012 14:26

KUALA LUMPUR: Masterskill Education Group Bhd, which specialises in nursing courses, is diversifying into other education segments to stem the decline in earnings, said group CEO Datuk Seri Dr Edmund Santhara, who refuted rumours that he is looking for a buyer of his 23.81% equity stake in the group.

Setting up international schools plus offering non-nursing courses and corporate training programmes will be Masterskill’s revival plan to derive more than half of group earnings from the new ventures, Santhara said after the company AGM yesterday.

中国央行降息0.25%

(北京7日讯)中国自2008年以来首次降低基准存贷款利率。此外,中国国务院也在週三晚间表示,明年才会正式开始实施新资本监管標准。

中国央行今日在其网站上宣佈,从明天开始,金融机构一年期存款基准利率將下调0.25个百分点,一年期贷款基准利率也將下调0.25个百分点。

公告並表示,自同日起將金融机构存款利率浮动区间的上限调整为基准利率的1.1倍;將金融机构贷款利率浮动区间的下限调整为基准利率的0.8倍。

环球投资IPO 机构投资者超额认购15倍

(吉隆坡7日讯)《彭博社》引述两名消息人士的话报导,Felda环球投资控股(FGVH)的105亿令吉首次公开售股(IPO)计划中,机构投资者方面已取得超过15倍的超额认购。

作为全马最大型种植股项的上市计划,环球投资控股將有3亿6500万股或佔缴足资本10%的股权,供机构投资者申请。消息指出,这批股权的价值约为5亿美元(约15.8亿令吉)。

环球投资控股將是继面子书后,今年內第二大的IPO计划。

虽然供机构投资者申请的比例相对较新加坡与香港的同类IPO来得少,但市场对东南亚前景乐观的看法,足以让环球投资控股获得热烈的认购需求。

名家观点:俄国还是金砖吗?●罗比尼

名家观点:俄国还是金砖吗?●罗比尼
Created 06/07/2012 - 13:05

我们又一次看到了这样的局面。叙利亚政府又杀害了数十名本国平民,而它的传统盟友俄罗斯做出了怎样的举动?它阻碍联合国安理会出台实质性的回应措施。

人们早该料到会有这样的结果,但这也提出一个根本的问题:俄罗斯在当今世界中扮演着什么样的角色?

俄罗斯加入西方组织并没有带来积极的结果。在俄罗斯能够像一个成熟的自由市场民主国家那样行事之前,G7+1无法成为真正意义上的G8。

完美风暴来临 航空业缩减规模

完美风暴来临 航空业缩减规模
Created 06/07/2012 - 11:13

(迪拜6日讯)国际航空业正面临恶劣经营环境。

继澳洲昆达士航空公司昨日发出盈警后,中东最大航空公司阿联酋航空(Emirates Airline)总裁亦警告,航空业将面临完美风暴,迫使许多航空公司缩减规模。

阿联酋航空总裁蒂姆克拉克指出,航空公司正面临完美风暴:欧元正走弱,英镑也走弱,现时燃料价格仍太高。

克拉克说,全球许多航空公司可能会被迫减少开支。

中国楼市持续滑落,汎港地产前景如何?

中国楼市持续滑落,汎港地产前景如何?
文: 朱皓翔 , 李金婷 (译:杨佳文) 2012年06月07日 微观细看
人们可能会用“愁云惨雾”这四个字来形容中国房地产市场目前的状况。

自2009年底以来,中国政府实施了一系列措施来减少房地产市场中的炒卖活动,包括提高购买首间和第二间房屋的首期付款(分别从20%提高至30%及从50%提高至60%),以及禁止通过贷款购买第三间房子。

致力于为楼市降温
中国主要城市仍有大量待售房屋,中国当局从土地销售取得的收入预料将在2012年下跌30%至900亿人民币。在2011年,中国当局的土地销售额下跌了30%至1,234亿人民币。

六月飛霜

六月飛霜
Created 06/06/2012 - 11:43

自豐盛工業(Harvest)去年10月中平地一聲雷,引領炒股潮流以來,低價股炒風就一直在馬股遊山玩水,驅之不散,期間雖偶爾停走休歇,卻從未試過如今次般徹底消失匿跡。

回顧5月份馬股,富時創業板指數暴跌5.8%,我們雖能將部份緣由歸咎給市況不濟或偏弱,但看其他指標指數,如同期綜指和全股指數卻沒太大波動,明確顯示唯有創業板股項遭顯著重創。

明明同舟共船渡,何以小股獨遇難?

巴菲特:美再陷衰退幾率低

巴菲特:美再陷衰退幾率低
Created 06/06/2012 - 19:30

股神巴菲特表示,雖然美國經濟最近出現疲弱跡象,但短期內再次陷入衰退的幾率非常低,除非歐債危機嚴重蔓延。

不過,巴菲特仍然表示,美國政府一定要妥善處理財政狀況無以為繼的情況。他建議,民主黨必須要對刪減社福福利作出讓步,而共和黨也不能老是反對政府加稅。

外圍逆風雖猛吹‧全年出口萎縮幾率低

外圍逆風雖猛吹‧全年出口萎縮幾率低
Created 06/07/2012 - 17:57

(吉隆坡7日訊)大馬4月出口持續放緩,經濟學家普遍認為歐元區動盪不安,以及主要貿易國經濟成長前景不明,大馬短期出口料繼續受外圍逆風影響走弱,但相信出口表現將隨下半年局勢明朗化轉強,全年出口陷入萎縮幾率甚低。

豐隆研究表示,大馬4月出口表現轉疲符合預期,主要是區域國家也出現類似趨勢,以中國和韓國等區域國家趨勢來看,預期5月出口將延續跌勢發展。

其中,電子與電器領域連續2個月處於負成長,預期疲勢將延續全年,但若扣除電子與電器領域,總出口在精煉石油和原油出口支撐下有望按年成長3.4%。

中國銀行存款成長率創新低‧瑞信:一大警訊

中國銀行存款成長率創新低‧瑞信:一大警訊
Created 06/06/2012 - 19:23

瑞士信貸發表研究報告指出,中國的銀行業的存款成長率創歷史新低是一大警訊,意謂著實質存款成本(實質資本成本)未來必須走高。

瑞信並指出,中國經濟正面臨結構性轉折,加上領導階層更替前不太可能推出大規模刺激方案(預估金額僅達人民幣1兆至2兆元),經濟前景難以樂觀看待。

根據Rosetta Stone Capital經濟學家謝國忠日前在財新網發表的評論文章,中國輕易取得經濟成長成績的日子已經過去了,未來政府得面對家庭收入偏低以及投資過剩等結構性問題。

賣家的市場?

賣家的市場?
Created 06/07/2012 - 11:29

在一個偏向賣家的市場,買家比較處於劣勢,從理論上來看,的確沒有錯,但是,當賣家以這個思維看待交易,緊握住心目中屬意的價格,他們未必可以遇到理想的買家,並成功敲定交易。

銀行信貸規格嚴謹,以放大鏡對客戶進行篩選,貸款人並不容易爭取最高融資,如果遇到賣主在售價上執意不退讓,交易自然告吹。

市場上有越來越多的人覺得生意難做,如果準備擴充業務,在融資不易爭取的情況下,他們惟有割捨手上的產業單位,將其中一、兩個單位套現,然後籌集所需的資金,以便按原本的計劃邁進。

難逃外圍衝擊‧亞航業務料可持續成長

難逃外圍衝擊‧亞航業務料可持續成長
Created 06/07/2012 - 11:47

(吉隆坡6日訊)亞洲航空(AIRASIA,5099,主板貿服組)預見業務難免受外圍環境衝擊,但相信現有業務模式可有效對抗經濟衰退衝擊,料整體業務將可持續成長。

公司首席執行員丹斯里東尼費南達斯表示,亞航雖無法從歐債危機或美國經濟放緩風險免疫,但業務核心落在亞洲而佔據優勢,更幸運的是業務模式可與經濟衰退消費趨勢減緩良好結合。

“我們今年首季取得創紀錄表現,第二季客流量持續強勁,其中日本亞航更錄得創紀錄銷售,相信公司將持續成長。”

MASTERSKILL覓優質夥伴‧國家股份收購傳言不實

MASTERSKILL覓優質夥伴‧國家股份收購傳言不實
Created 06/07/2012 - 11:59

(吉隆坡6日訊)MASTERSKILL教育(MEGB,5166,主板貿服組)目前正積極通過引進策略夥伴,以提高公司價值,並表明國家股份公司(EKUINAS)收購該公司傳言不實。

同時,該公司相信在推出商業等新課程後,可改善下半年的盈利表現。

MASTERSKILL首席執行員拿督斯里雅蒙桑達拉表示,公司正擬定多項建議,尋找更良好的合作夥伴,而對於出售公司全部業務並不感興趣。

曹仁超: 經濟再平衡期 投資宜保守

經濟再平衡期 投資宜保守

《信報財經月刊》6月號

曹仁超

我們正進入一個經濟好也好不到哪裏去、壞也壞不到哪裏去的時代,就業市場只有極之溫和的改善,世界進入再平衡期。香港過去30年一直向富人傾斜的政策亦將結束,最低收入階層的收入將逐步改善,但中產階級仍處夾縫,前景並不樂觀。

新思維時代來臨

經濟進入再平衡期,雖然一樣有大量商機,但同我們這一代所面對的環境不同,1967至1997年投資者面對「順水推舟」的環境,事半功倍;2007年後面對的卻是「逆水行舟」的環境,投資變成事倍而功半。

Market Outlook & Strategy (UOBKH)

Market Outlook & Strategy
REVIEW: In line with the steep decline of regional and global markets, the FSSTI fell 6.9% mom in May, roiled by escalating fears over the euro zone debt crisis as well as slowing growth in China. Recent economic data points in Singapore such as April's disappointing manufacturing output and a higher-than-expected CPI did not help either. The 1Q12 reporting season ended on a poor note, with 38% of stocks under our coverage reporting lower-than-expected results. Due to external concerns, investors continued to de-risk, selling down higher-beta sectors such as plantation (-20.6% mom), supply chain (-14.4% mom) and shipping (-13.8% mom). Conversely, low-beta sectors such as healthcare (+0.9% mom) and telecommunications (-0.4% mom) outperformed the FSSTI as investors sought refuge from the selldown.

Noble Group: Attractive Risk/Reward(Macquarie)

Noble Group
Price (at 09:04, 06 Jun 2012 GMT) S$1.09
12-month target S$ 1.40
Upside/Downside % 28.4
Attractive Risk/Reward

At 1.16x trailing PB (for 1Q12), Noble prices in -5% growth, assuming it can return to mid-teens ROE. Recent numbers have underwhelmed, but we think pencilling in a permanent EPS decline is too bearish. We see risk-reward skewed to the upside. 2Q12 should be subdued, but followed by a better 2H12, in our view.

Tiger Airways : Finalized deal for 40% stake in SEAIR (Phillip)

Tiger Airways Holdings Ltd
Target Price (SGD) 0.52
- Previous Target Price (SGD) 0.52
Closing Price (SGD) 0.65
Expected Capital Gains (%) -20.0%
Expected Dividend Yield (%) 0.0%
Expected Total Return (%) -20.0%
Finalized deal for 40% stake in SEAIR

Company Overview
Tiger Airways is a low cost carrier based in Singapore and Australia. The Group aims to grow its footprint through strategic joint ventures across Asia-Pacific. Tiger Airways intends to grow its fleet size to 68 by the end of 2015.

 Finalized agreement for 40% stake in SEAIR
 3 more A320s to be injected by FY13E
 Alleviate overcapacity and enhance network of the Group
 Maintain Reduce with unchanged TP of S$0.52

Genting Malaysia: Minor Setback in New York (OSK)

Genting Malaysia
Fair Value RM4.21
Price RM3.54
Minor Setback in New York

THE BUZZ
New York Governor Andrew Cuomo said in an interview on Friday that talks with Genting Group to develop an integrated casino/exhibition centre on Genting’s Aqueduct Race track "haven't really worked out".

Jadi Imaging: What is its way out of falling sales and rising costs?

Q1 profit plummets on lower sales volume

[6/7/12] – Jadi Imaging Holdings aims to enter new market segments with its newly developed high value products.

It also plans to promote its environmentally-friendly Palmatone Colour Chemically Produced Toner.

The company identifies economic crisis in Europe, slowdown in China, rising material costs from Japan and fluctuation in foreign exchange as its key challenges.

Sheng Siong Group: When Three is Not a Crowd (KE)

Sheng Siong Group
Share price: SGD0.385
Target price: SGD0.52
When Three is Not a Crowd

Supermarket trio ensures controlled competition. Sheng Siong Group is one of the top three supermarket operators in Singapore with a market share of 18%, behind NTUC FairPrice and Dairy Farm International (Cold Storage & Shop’N’Save). Together, the trio controls 83% of the domestic market, a predominance which we believe helps ensure stable and controlled competition while barring new entrants which lack economies of scale.

Berjaya Sports Toto: Unleashing Its Dividend Potential (OSK)

Berjaya Sports Toto
Fair Value RM5.01
Price RM4.25
Unleashing Its Dividend Potential

Making discerning choices (HwangDBS)

Making discerning choices
• Malaysia’s PE premium has widened to 34%, well above 16% average and at high end of 10-year range
• Current levels offer limited upside for the KLCI on a yearend target of 1,590
• We like stocks with company-specific catalysts, bottomup picks, and selected defensive names: Maybank, MISC, SapuraKencana, Multi-Purpose

Premium has risen to 34%. Although Malaysia has traditionally traded at a premium, the current premium is well above its 16% average and at the high end of its 10-year range.

《創富激發點》黃文傑:買地產股勝買樓?


Market Continues To Slump – ECB And Fed To The Rescue?

04 JUNE 2012
Market Continues To Slump – ECB And Fed To The Rescue?
By Ernest Lim

Asian stocks, as represented by MSCI Asia Pacific Ex Japan Index (MXAPJ) notched the longest streak of weekly losses in a year. Almost US$4.5 trillion have been wiped off from global equity markets amid rising bond yields in Italy and Spain and concerns over Spain’s beleaguered banking sector. Weaker than expected economic data from China, UK and US and ongoing concerns over Greece exacerbated the pessimism. Table 1 presents a snapshot of how Asian indices have fared last week.

Ascendas Real Estate: Safe defensive play (BoA)

Ascendas Real Estate
Price S$2.00
Price Objective S$2.10.
52-Week Range S$1.82-S$2.16

Upgrade to Neutral; PO S$2.10/shr
We are upgrading AREIT from Underperform to Neutral and increasing our PO to S$2.10/shr (previously S$2.05/shr). AREIT has proven to be one of the most defensive REITs during downturns. We believe the stock will be favored by investors seeking yield and a stable earnings stream backed by a strong balance sheet and quality management team. However, we note that there is potential downside risk from AREIT’s exposure to the business park segment and prefer MINT (XYRHF; SGD1.14; B-1-7) for its higher yield and stronger earnings growth profile.

HPH Trust:Bearish break suggests further correction pressure (OCBC)

HPH Trust
Closing Price: US$0.68
52 Week Range: US$0.55-US$0.92


1Q12 Results Review (MIB)

Strategy note
Neutral (unchanged)
Current KLCI: 1,555.2
YE KLCI target: 1,565.0 (unchanged)
1Q12 Results Review

Maintain YE KLCI target at 1,565. We retain our year-end KLCI target, pegged to one standard deviation below the KLCI’s mean PER (13.2x), on one-year forward earnings. Risk remains on the downside, emanating mainly from the external front. 1Q12 corporate results were largely within expectations with negligible changes to our market earnings forecasts. Our defensive call on the market is reiterated. We raise Power and Telco to Overweight, and rejig our top stock picks.

Mapletree Industrial Trust: Look here for stable yield play (BoA)

Mapletree Industrial Trust
Price S$1.14
Price Objective S$1.30
52-Week Range S$1.04-S$1.22
Look here for stable yield play

Initiate with Buy; PO S$1.30 (14% potential upside)
We are initiating coverage on Mapletree Industrial Trust (MINT) with a Buy rating and a DCF-based PO of S$1.30 (14% potential upside). MINT is one of the largest industrial landlords in Singapore with majority of its portfolio skewed to flatted factories. MINT is our key pick for a defensive yield play in the REIT sector, while we maintain our preference for retail REITs for higher earnings growth.

CDL Hospitality Trusts: Upbeat, but aware of current risks (Daiwa)

CDL Hospitality Trusts
Share price (5 Jun): S$1.80
Target price: S$2.10 → S$2.10
Upbeat, but aware of current risks

• Still trying to improve yields
• In no rush for acquisitions
• Reaffirm Outperform

�� What's new
We had a meeting with the management team of CDL Hospitality Trusts (CDLHT) on 5 June 2012.

Wilmar at the dbAccess Asia Conference (DB)

Wilmar International
Price (SGD) 3.51
Price target (SGD) 4.50
52-week range (SGD) 5.99 - 3.51

We hosted Wilmar at the dbAccess Asia Conference. Key takeaways are:

Expanding Indonesia refining capacity. Given a favourable export tax structure and higher crude palm oil (CPO) production in Indonesia, Wilmar is looking at expanding its existing capacity of 7m MT to about 12m MT by the end of 3Q12. This additional capacity is expected to cost some US $100m. The strong refining margins are not likely to sustain in the long run once the additional capacities come on stream. Meanwhile, the refining business in Malaysia is still loss-making but Wilmar has been able to reduce the losses by running at lower utilization rate.

Olam International: Cutting estimates, target price, but correction looks overdone (MS)

Olam International
Price target S$2.50
Shr price, close (Jun 4, 2012) S$1.53
52-Week Range S$2.86-1.53
Cutting estimates, target price, but correction looks overdone

We remain OW, as we find valuation attractive and the food business solid. Weakness in non-food (which we view as cyclical) will be a drag on FY12e PAT – yet we think the stock’s recent correction is overdone. On FY13e, Olam trades at a 33% discount to its average PER and at record-low P/B.

Giordano International: China syndrome (CIMB)

Giordano
Current HK$6.10
Target HK$8.60
China syndrome

曾淵滄專欄 07.06.12:買樓睇包裝輸到儍

儘管股市大跌,中原城市領先指數( CCL)依然不斷地創新高,三周前(5月18日) CCL第一次超越97年的102.93,創歷史新高,之後一連兩個星期,再不斷地創新高,該指數最新(6月1日)報104點。

全球經濟放緩兼面臨衰退,本港樓價卻屢創新高,有報道說連房協的喜雅也要賣萬元一呎。房協推出的喜雅聲稱只賣給香港永久居民,售價依然如此高,「港人港地」的第一個試驗看來效果並不理想。97年樓價創新高,當時買樓者基本上也是以香港人為主,仍未有來自內地的豪客,可見香港人瘋狂起來,催谷泡沫的能力也不可小覷。

Are there more factors this time for Singapore REITs to fall below 2008-09 crisis levels?

Kim Eng rates Singapore REITs

[6/6/12] – Kim Eng says the myth that Singapore REITs are good income yielding instruments for retail investors has generated much debate.

On the one hand, REITs proponents like the recurring distributions paid out from steady streams of rental income.

On the other hand, naysayers argue that whatever REITs managers pay out in dividends, they will likely take back in the form of rights issues.

Europe Needs Bold, Decisive Actions As Effects Of Stimulus Wane – MAS

05 JUNE 2012
Europe Needs Bold, Decisive Actions As Effects Of Stimulus Wane – MAS
By Louis Lee

The effects of previous rounds of stimulus in Europe and the U.S. are leveling off and governments in the euro zone will need to take bolder, decisive actions in the next few weeks and months to help improve the global economic situation, Ravi Menon, the head of Singapore’s central bank, said Tuesday.

“The effects of monetary stimulus, which had helped to support the economy and prevent a full-blown financial crisis, are now leveling off in both the euro zone and the U.S.,” Mr. Menon, managing director of the Monetary Authority of Singapore, said at an Islamic banking conference in the island nation.

市场跌跌不休 – 欧洲央行及联储局将会出手相助吗?

市场跌跌不休 – 欧洲央行及联储局将会出手相助吗?
文: 林伟杰 (译:麦美莹) 2012年06月04日 展望
由摩根士丹利国际资本亚太(除日本)指数(MXAPJ) 为代表的亚洲股市蒙受一年来最长的每周跌幅。由于意大利及西班牙的债券收益率上升及市场担心西班牙的银行业陷于困境,大约4万5,000亿美元从环球股市中消失。中国、英国及美国所公布的经济数据比预期疲弱及希腊问题持续令人担忧令悲观情绪加剧。表1 显示了亚洲股市在过去一个星期的表现。

Attractive yields from Starhill REIT

Attractive yields from Starhill REIT
In The Edge Financial Daily Today 2012
Written by Insider Asia
Wednesday, 06 June 2012 14:55

Starhill REIT, the only hospitality-focused real estate investment trust in the country, appears to be quite attractively priced. While we expect growth to be somewhat pedestrian going forward, barring any new asset acquisitions, the trust does offer investors steady income yield in times of market uncertainty.

At the current price of 91.5 sen, it is trading at only 0.81 times its net asset value of RM1.13. This discount to book value also means that the trust is now offering investors yields that are at the higher end of the range for all listed REIT in the country, especially compared with the larger ones (in terms of assets).

KLCC Property : Right time for a REIT? (CIMB)

KLCC Property Holdings
Current RM4.00
Target RM3.19
Right time for a REIT?

If KLCC Prop injects its assets into a REIT as speculated, it could unlock for shareholders an estimated RM4.03/share in the form of cash dividends and units in the REIT. But we are uncertain if this would happen as KLCC Prop is not in urgent need of cash.

As there is no confirmation of such a move or its timing, we retain our Underperform rating. Without confirmation of REIT plans, KLCC Prop could be derated as investors switch to larger M-REITs like CMMT for higher yields. We continue to value at 40% discount to its RNAV.

Berjaya Sports Toto: Cashing in some chips upfront (CIMB)

Berjaya Sports Toto
Current RM4.25
Target RM5.30
Cashing in some chips upfront

We are neutral on BToto’s RM6bn sale of Sports Toto Malaysia to a business trust as the fast-tracking of dividend payments via an estimated 45 sen special DPS is offset by a 20% dilution of shareholdings and future dividends.

We maintain our earnings projections, pending finalisation of the proposed transfer. The stock remains an Outperform with an unchanged DDM-based target price. Even after the deal, net dividend yields should hover around 4.5-5.0%, which is still decent in volatile times.

Malaysia Smelting: Corporation Stepping Into Resource-Rich Territory (OSK)

Malaysia Smelting
Fair Value RM5.60
Price RM3.66

Corporation Stepping Into Resource-Rich Territory

THE BUZZ
Malaysia Smelting Corporation (MSC) told Bursa Malaysia yesterday that it has entered into a Sales and Purchase Agreement (SPA) for a 40% stake in Africa Smelting Corp (ASC) for USD400,000. The remaining 60% will be held by Mining Mineral Resources (MMR), a private company and major resource player incorporated in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) conducting trading as well as owning and developing tin assets in Katanga Province, DRC. ASC is currently constructing its second electric furnace and expects to commence production by end-November 2012, with a total annual capacity of 3,500 tonnes per year (tpy) of tin metal.

Coastal Contracts looks to diversify business

Discounts to repeat customers hit margins

[6/6/12] – Coastal Contracts is looking to diversify into offshore structure fabrication business.

The company has begun upgrading its infrastructure at its Sandakan yard after which it will be capable of erecting offshore structures.

With Sabah set to become Malaysia’s oil and gas hub, Costal Contracts has distinct competitive advantage due to its yard’s geographical proximity.

Singtel :Will changing data plans boost revenues?

SingTel launches LTE for smartphones

[6/6/12] – SingTel is refreshing its smartphone plans with offerings between 2GB and 12GB of data versus a flat 12GB across all plans previously.

CIMB Research says new plans will offer 25% to 45% more SMS.

In addition, SingTel also launched an LTE service for smartphones, the first telecom company in Singapore to do so.

It has made available three LTE handsets: HTC One XL, LG Optimus LTE and Samsung Galaxy S2 LTE.

美股回升带动海指上扬

美国服务业数据优于预期,加上各国政府可能采取新的经济振兴措施,带动美国隔夜股市回升,本地股市也应声上扬,新加坡海峡时报指数昨天闭市时上涨1.79%或48.52点,收报2760.83点。

  不过,西班牙的银行系统问题以及欧元区债务危机仍然是投资者所关注的事项。

  欧洲央行将于周三召开月度议息会议,分析师指出,投资者也为此抱着谨慎态度。

  新加坡证券投资者协会研究公司首席分析师黄建锝则指出,投资者仍然关注欧洲局势以及美国即将发布的更多经济数据。

  他说:“投资者还在等着看接下来是否还会有新一轮的量化宽松政策出台。”

黄鸿年成为第二大股东 国际贸易股价一度飙涨22%

昨日同时出现股价飙涨的股票包括Swiber控股以及创新科技,股价分别大涨超过9%。

王阳发 报道
ongyh@sph.com.sg

  股市上个月以来急速下跌后,最近传出不少企业消息刺激了一些挂牌公司的股价。

  昨日最引人注目的一个刺激股价的消息是:富商黄鸿年成为国际贸易(Intraco)的第二大股东,致使国际贸易股价一度飙涨22%至超过11年来最高位。连同第一大股东达丰控股(Tat Hong Holdings),这是一周内国际贸易的股东结构发生的两大变化。

传马国大企业拟来新上市

前天传出马国挂牌公司成功多多计划把博彩业务——多多大马,转变为商业信托的模式,并在新交所上市。之前也传由马国主权财富基金国库控股控制的综合保健控股,最快会在7月上市,而且将选择在新马双重挂牌。

王阳发 报道
ongyh@sph.com.sg

  刚离开5月份,股市就不断传出新股将来新加坡交易所上市的消息,而这一轮消息都是来自马来西亚的公司,有别于刚刚临阵退缩的欧洲公司(F1及曼彻斯特联队)以及前阵子霸占新股上市活动的中资企业,但上市规模同样不小。

Chinese ministry reaffirms property cooling policy

Chinese ministry reaffirms property cooling policy
04:45 AM Jun 07, 2012
SHANGHAI - China's main real-estate regulator yesterday reaffirmed its commitment to maintaining restrictions on property sales, the official Xinhua News Agency reported, as Beijing continues to resist calls for wider easing to offset a slowing economy.

A Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development spokesman denied recent media reports claiming the government was planning to loosen real-estate policy, saying policies targeting real-estate speculation and price inflation would remain in place.

Masterskill denies takeover talk, open to partnership

Masterskill denies takeover talk, open to partnership
By Roziana Hamsawi
bt@nstp.com.my
2012/06/07

Discussions with at least two parties had begun for collaboration but they were not Khazanah Nasional or Ekuiti Nasional, said group chief executive officer Datuk Seri Edmund Santhara.
KUALA LUMPUR: Masterskill Education Group Bhd (MEGB) has denied that it is a takeover target of two government-linked funds, but hinted that it may consider selling stakes in its campus branches to interested parties.

股價插水 佐丹奴內地割價清貨

股價插水
佐丹奴內地割價清貨

剛委任「彤孫」鄭志剛入局的佐丹奴(709),昨逆市急插5.5%,成交急增。公司管理層出席瑞銀投資者會議時透露,4、5月份內地銷售復蘇速度較預期中慢,要加大力度減價清存貨。

另據港交所中央結算資料顯示,與彤叔關係密切的鼎珮證券,於佐丹奴公佈首季業績後三日,即5月28日起,又恢復在場內收集佐丹奴股票,多個交易日內從未間斷,持倉量由原本0%增至前日的0.21%。鼎珮昨仍為佐丹奴第三大買入經紀。佐丹奴最後收市挫5.5%,報5.2元,創今年以來新低。

內需股銷售全面變差

內需股銷售全面變差
華創、恒安蒙牛無一倖免

【本報訊】內地零售市場進一步跌至瀕臨衰退邊緣!包括華創(291)、恒安(1044)及佐丹奴(709)等多家零售商透露,4及5月份銷售表現差過首季,相信情況會持續。外資基金經理表示,恐怕內需股最快於第三季便出現倒退。
記者:陳健文、吳綺慧

該外資基金經理說:「其實4月同5月份繼續放緩嘅原因好簡單,首先需求真係弱咗,但大家都無改到喺舊年底決定嘅擴張計劃,於是喺分店同供應都越嚟越多嘅情況下,(銷售情況)越嚟越差係無可避免嘅事情。」

港股反彈市 料延續至下周 細價股逆市遭唾棄

恒指以全日高位收市,惟細價股逆市捱沽。 李潤芳攝

【本報訊】救市憧憬再來,港股昨高收升1.4%,惟創業板股慘情。恒指以全日高位18520點收市,升261點,市場相信反彈市可持續至下周,惟黑期昨晚彈逾百點後急回。細價股昨逆市遭唾棄,多隻創業板股高成交下狂瀉,專家建議遠離三四線股。 記者:林靜

近日多國央行陸續議息,市場估計放水消息快來,恒指連彈兩日,即月期指計及除淨因素高水約60點。不過, H指受累 A股牛皮而跑輸,收報9438點,升0.4%,全日主板成交額疲弱,昨錄461億元。歐洲股市昨晚急升後回順,本港時間昨晚九時半,黑期升10點。

滙控潛在壞帳或逾千億

滙控(00005)未公布的壞帳損失或高達100億英鎊(約1,200億港元)。英國顧問機構Pensions & Investment Research Consultants(PIRC)預警,英國銀行業並未在去年度的利潤中反映出潛在壞帳風險,然而這些壞帳規模巨大,或迫使部分銀行再尋求政府援助。

渣打料達八百億

英國《每日電訊報》報道,PIRC根據英國五大銀行去年的帳目分析,估算出這些銀行未來數年的壞帳規模可達400億英鎊,而且潛在壞帳數字未有在業績中顯示,令銀行利潤被過分誇大,繼而使銀行的資金流失於分派股息及花紅中,而不是用來提升資本緩衝。

憧憬救市 美股收市漲286點

憧憬救市 美股收市漲286點
儲局或延扭曲操作 傳歐基金助銀行

市場憧憬環球央行推出救市措施,傳救市基金歐洲穩定機制(ESM)將直接注資銀行,化解歐洲銀行危機,刺激歐元及商品受補倉及趁低買盤支持上升,資源及金融股帶動環球股市大幅上揚,美股創今年以來最大單日升幅。

道指以全日最高位收市,創今年以來最大升幅2.4%,本港今晨4時(即收市),升286點,報12414點;標普500指數重上1300點關口,升29點,報1315點;納指升66點,報2844點。Stoxx歐洲600指數曾升2.4%,收市升2.3%;英法德股收市升2.1%至2.4%。摩根士丹利資本國際(MSCI)新興市場及世界指數同升逾1%。

佐丹奴銷售復甦慢股價瀉

瑞銀報告引述佐丹奴(00709)管理層指出,至今公司第二季銷售復甦的速度較預期慢,料內地業務將開始「大減價、清舊貨」的活動。佐丹奴昨日沽壓沉重,最多逆市急瀉近7%,收報5.2元,跌0.3元或5.45%,成交量大增至1,491萬股。

累彤叔帳蝕逾3.3億
自公布首季數據(五月廿五日)以來,該股已累跌近15%,市值蒸發近14億元,而佐丹奴近月更獲新世界發展(00017)主席鄭裕彤(彤叔)增持至24.01%,因此拖累彤叔於不足兩個星期帳蝕逾3.3億元。另外,周大福(01929)繼前日反彈後,昨日又再下跌,收報9元,跌1.31%。

地產股飆 麥格理潑冷水

本港發展商積極推售新盤,成為股價催化劑,地產股昨日急飆。不過,麥格理表示,本港樓市正如履薄冰,未來六個月或有危險,估計未來十二個月樓價會下跌5至10%,目前地產發展股未反映最壞情況,未來續有下跌空間,待新特區政府正式公布遏抑樓價措施後,才是撈底良機。

樓價未來一年恐跌10%
麥格理稱,年初至今二手樓價累漲7.6%,但地產股僅漲0.4%,收租股及房託基金則漲10.4%,在環球經濟不明朗、政策風險增加、本港經濟增長放緩及住宅供應持續增加下,未來十二個月樓價或跌5至10%。雖然於市場游資充裕,短期內本港樓市不會崩圍,但政策風險會令地產股股價與資產淨值折讓率擴闊,給予地產發展股「減持」投資評級,但看好新世界(00017),因集團可受惠新盤推出及便宜的估值。

专家料内地减息潮将至

专家料内地减息潮将至
http://paper.wenweipo.com [2012-06-07]

香港文汇报讯 内地居民放在银行里的存款,大约两年来首次可以获得正回报,然而好景不长,由于通胀水平的回落给政府提供了降息空间,好日子恐怕会转瞬即逝。内地业界预料,人民银行6月份将自2008年以来首次减息,以应对经济增长放缓。

 据彭博的《今日图表》显示,2月份,内地的消费者价格指数(CPI)同比增幅25个月来首次降至基准一年期存款利率之下。二者之间的差─即所谓的实际存款回报率─5月份可能已经进一步扩大,根据彭博的调查结果,经济学家对5月CPI的同比增幅预期是3.2%。利率互换的走势预示,来年至少会有3次降息,而PMI上个月的增幅也已创下了去年12月以来的最低水平。

Asias-central-banks-prepare-for-potential-Greek-fallout

Marc Faber on the Potential for a Market Crash in the Fall