Saturday, May 12, 2012

丁蟹效应:郑少秋电视剧20年使股市下挫记录

丁蟹效应:郑少秋电视剧20年使股市下挫记录
丁蟹效应(又称“秋官效应”)是中国及欧美股票市场的一个奇特现象。

1992年10月5日,香港无线电视播放由郑少秋饰演的丁蟹,经常在股票市场的熊市中借着抛空恒生指数期货而获取暴利,正好当时香港股市暴跌,股民损失惨重。因此有了“丁蟹效应”一词。以下是20年来出现过郑少秋的电视剧、节目播出使股市下挫的记录:

1992年10月05日,《大时代》香港首播,节目播出后恒生指数一个月内跌幅曾多达1283点(20.6

丁蟹效应(又称“秋官效应”)是中国及欧美股票市场的一个奇特现象。1992年10月5日,香港无线电视播放由郑少秋饰演的丁蟹,经常在股票市场的熊市中借着抛空恒生指数期货而获取暴利,正好当时香港股市暴跌,股民损失惨重。因此有了“丁蟹效应”一词。以下是20年来出现过郑少秋的电视剧、节目播出使股市下挫的记录:

PhillipCapital Weekly Market Watch 07.05.2012


Weekend Comment May 11: Europe fears renewed

MARKETS WERE DOWN this week (May 7-11) as news of fresh turmoil emerging in Europe dampened the small-cap rally on the local bourse. But interestingly, Singapore Telecommunications managed to gain 3.8% in value as investors sought refuge in the blue-chip stock.

On May 10, SingTel also announced a 4.2% yoy rise in revenue to $18.8 billion for the full year ended March 31, 2012, while earnings rose 4.3% to $3.9 billion over the same period. The telco’s results were boosted by mobile growth in Singapore and Australia.

怎样从不够钱用变为财政自由?

怎样从不够钱用变为财政自由?
文: 吴加万 (译:麦美莹) 2012年05月11日 展望
你有没有试过不够钱用?事实上,很多人都有同感。最近有一个就退休计划而作的调查显示,69%的受访者表示他们还没有开始计划或者是还没有为退休而充分地打算。

如果你现年40岁,计划在60岁退休,并假设你可以活到85岁。换句话说,你只有20年时间来为25年的退休生活作打算。如果你目前只有5万元储蓄,并希望在60岁退休后每个月有1,000元的收入,那么你每个月需要储蓄多少才够呢(假设你的储蓄可以获得5%的年回报率及通胀率为3%)?答案是你每个月需要储蓄724元,而到60岁的时候,你总共可以储蓄434,319元。这个数字你可以从www.cpf.gov.sg网站的退休计算机计算。

新加坡的生活费是不是太昂贵?

新加坡的生活费是不是太昂贵?
文: 李廷伟 (译:麦美莹) 2012年05月11日 展望
如果现在你吃一碗面要付5块钱,你会觉得很贵吗?新加坡的生活水平不断上升已经是铁一般的事实。什么东西都在起价,如果在10年内,你吃同一碗面要付7块钱或更多,你会感到不可思议吗?

但问题是我们可以对物价高涨应付裕如吗?我们可以有能力买屋子而不会被庞大的债务压得透不过气来吗?
以下的图表显示了每季的消费物价指数(CPI)- 包含新加坡所有项目的通胀。在短短一年内,CPI跳升了5.1%,实在令人感到担忧。与核心通胀率(core inflation rate)不同的是,CPI包含房屋及交通等变动项目。这两个项目可以说是最大的变动常数,但它们却以不同方式对我们的生活产生重要的影响。因此,在这篇文章里,我们会把整体生活费用考虑在内,看看大家对物价高涨是否应付得来,以及你的购买能力失去了多少。

淡马锡控股脱售中行建行股权获逾24亿美元;仍看好中国银行业

淡马锡控股脱售中行建行股权获逾24亿美元;仍看好中国银行业
文: 道琼斯通讯社 (译:朱爱伦) 2012年05月11日 展望
知情人士表示,新加坡的国家投资公司淡马锡控股(Temasek Holdings)通过配售其在中国银行(Bank of China)和中国建设银行(China Construction Bank)的部份股权而筹得24亿8,000万美元。由于市场依旧阴晴不定,脱售价是在参考价范围的低端。

上述两家银行是中国四大银行之二,公司脱售它们的股权是为重新平衡其投资组合,况且这两家银行的股价也在今年直线上升。虽然把银行股权脱售,但公司并没有把焦点抽离全球第二大经济体。中国是公司继新加坡之后的第二大投资对象。截至2011年3月31日,公司拥有总值约1,600亿美元的投资组合。在脱售这两个银行的股权后,它在中国依旧持有总值约180亿美元的银行股。

颜子伟:政治不稳定拖累股市走低;接下来有什么值得注意?

政治不稳定拖累股市走低;接下来有什么值得注意?
文: 颜子伟 (译:麦美莹) 2012年05月11日 展望
海峡时报指数在横摆超过两个多月后,终于摆脱在2,950点至3,031点的交易范围,跌穿了位于 2,980 点及2,910点的支持位。有趣的是,位于 2,910点的支持位刚好是2012年3月7日的低位及2011年10月28日的高位,但这个水平在5月9日及10日轻易地被穿破,意味着海指可能会试探在2,850点至2,875点的支持区间。海指在2012年1月20日及21日也出现过缺口,意味着这个缺口可能需要填补,然后海指才会回弹。

股市为何突然大跌?小型牛市是否经已结束?接下来市场有什么值得我们注意?

市场当然讨厌不稳定的情绪,但我们必须承认有很多变数浮现,导致交易量减少及投资者意兴阑珊 。

财经正前方2012-05-11 五月暖风吹 — 中国股市新政观察


2011年12月31日伯克希尔持股明细

2011年12月31日伯克希尔持股明细
巴菲特持股明细

2011年巴菲特的四大投资方向

2011年巴菲特的四大投资方向
巴菲特

名家观点:西班牙危机…慢动作火车出轨●罗比尼

名家观点:西班牙危机…慢动作火车出轨●罗比尼
Created 05/12/2012 - 13:05

西班牙政府终于采取行动了:宣布接管Bankia银行,并决定对银行业注资。

在西班牙经济急剧萎缩和失业率飙升的情况下,政府纾困银行业已无可避免,但这只解决一块拼图,如果没有成长,连西班牙国家都将需要纾困。

西班牙信用荣景在2008年达到高峰,此后低廉的外部融资供应开始大幅减少。

4年后,西班牙银行业的资产品质持续滑落。银行业今年将需要再注资1,000 亿-2,500亿欧元,才能维持9%的第1类核心资本比率,即欧洲银行监管局(EBA)的最低标准。

马熔锡机构净利挫80%

马熔锡机构净利挫80%
Created 05/12/2012 - 11:44

(吉隆坡11日讯)截至2012年3月31日财年首季,马熔锡机构(MSC,5916,主板工业产品股)净利挫80%报567万3000令吉,上财年同期为2827万6000令吉。

当季营业额录得7亿7190万4000令吉,上财年同期为7亿3787万3000令吉,按年增4.61%。

马熔锡机构税前盈利则从上财年同期的4582万3000令吉下滑81%,至870万令吉。另外,每股盈利随着整体表现下滑至5.7仙,上财年同期为30.4仙。

KRIS資產回饋40億‧產託單位+股息+現金

KRIS資產回饋40億‧產託單位+股息+現金
Created 05/12/2012 - 15:53

(吉隆坡11日訊)配合IGB產業信託(IGB REIT)上市,KRIS資產(KASSETS,6653,主板產業組)的合格股東可望獲得分配近40億令吉的產業信託單位、股息和現金。

KRIS資產發文告說,建議以46億1千260萬令吉總代價,脫售谷中城(Mid Valley Megamall)、園中城(TheGardens Mall)與相關資產予IGB產業信託,後者將發行34億單位的產業信託和12億1千260萬令吉現金支付這項收購。

同時,Mid Valley City Gardens公司(MVCG)也建議透過首次公開售股(IPO),獻售6億7千萬單位的IGB產業信託。

What Is Going To Happen To Europe?

5/11/2012 @ 7:22PM
What Is Going To Happen To Europe?

Earlier this week, France and Greece had elections. In both cases, left-of-center candidates won. In both cases, the winners oppose the tough medicine that is necessary to pull themselves out of their economic and fiscal troubles. Which leaves many asking: what is going to happen to Europe?

In the case of Greece, ask we have written before, let it implode. Greece is of no consequence to Europe. It accounts for one percent or so of Euro-zone gross domestic product and its labor force is one of the least productive on the continent. Of course, many Europe banks — many French banks — lent money to Greece. But, the European Central Bank and the various governments have agreed to recapitalize such banks. Greece will return to the drachma, which will tank, and national productivity will stabilize accordingly.

Ezion Holdings: Secures its third major LNG project (DBSV)

Ezion Holdings
BUY S$0.815
Price Target : 12-Month S$ 1.32 (Prev S$ 1.29)

Secures its third major LNG project
• Secures another contract to support development of LNG project on Curtis Island, estimated to be worth >US$100m
• New debt facility diversifies funding sources, signals robust project pipeline
• FY13F raised 4%; Maintain BUY, TP S$1.32

Cosco : 1Q12: Still Deep In The Woods (UOBKH)

Cosco Corporation
Share Price S$1.00
Target Price S$0.90
Upside -10.0%
(Previous TP S$0.93)

1Q12: Still Deep In The Woods

Results
• COSCO Corp (S) (COSCO (S) reported 1Q12 net profit of S$27.8m (-25% yoy) – below our expectation – because of a provision of S$13.8m for expected losses in ongoing projects. Shipyard turnover declined marginally by 2% yoy while dry bulk shipping turnover plunged by 38% yoy because of lower charter rates as proxied by a lower Baltic Dry Index (BDI). Management said despite the lower shipping turnover, COSCO (S)’s shipping business was still profitable.

OSIM : Star Buy (AM)

OSIM International Ltd
LAST CLOSE: S$1.255
FAIR VALUE: S$1.60
Star Buy

OSIM International Ltd (OSIM) is literally a star on the BCG matrix, being found in a fast-growing luxury healthy lifestyle industry with a dominant market share in some parts of Asia. We favour OSIM for its brand equity, scalability and growth prospects. The 1Q results announced yesterday delivered a record-breaking quarterly PATMI of S$22.2mil, meeting 26.5% of our FY12F estimates. Sales were mainly driven by products uDivine and uPhoria. An interim DPS of S$0.01 was announced.

施永青: 德国不牺牲 欧盟将解体

上周日法国与希腊的两场选举,都已清楚表明欧洲民众多不支持目前在欧洲广泛推行的紧缩政策。法国是欧元区除德国外的第二大强国,其人民也作出这样的选择;其他经济实力不如法国的国家,其人民有机会投票时会作怎样的选择,已不难推论。

本来解决债务危机的正途,当是收紧开支,节吃俭用,储钱还债。但在民主社会这条路不易行得通。因为,若选择行这条路,人民就得先吃苦。以希腊为例,欧洲央行答应施以援手的条件是要希腊政府节省开支,那就得减公务员工资,延后退休时间,削减各项福利补贴。这种做法令社会上大部分的人民的利益受损,他们当然不会认为这是解决债务危机的好方法。

「人民的眼睛是雪亮的」,只是政客为了方便操弄群众的一种说法;在现实世界人民往往是短视的,宁愿朝四暮三,也不愿意朝三暮四。加上在野的反对党绝不会放过人民有所不满的机会,一定会到处煽风点火,寻找执政党的不是,阻挠紧缩政策的落实,令紧缩政策更难看到成效。

曾渊沧:最坏情况过去 全球金融秩序渐恢复

最坏情况过去 全球金融秩序渐恢复
作者: 来源:中国证券网 2012-05-07

澳洲减息,说明经济状况严峻,澳洲经济与其矿产挂钩,这说明了矿产的需求在下跌中,欧债危机之后,欧洲诸国为了提升投资者对欧债的信心,纷纷大刀阔斧地削减政府开支,代价当然是经济衰退,消费市场低迷,影响了矿产的销量。

  我相信中国政府也开始看到外围形式的严峻性,数天前削减股票交易费是其中一项推动经济的「保八」行为,中国股市从2009年底开始调整,调整期非常长,如此长的调整期,已经把非常大量的股民赶出去,股民心灰意冷离场了。

  股市缺乏生气,就失去集资的功能,不能够在股市集资,企业只能向银行贷款,银行又受到中央宏调的控制,不敢过快放松,大量企业资金链断了,再加上欧洲经济不景,美国也复苏得很慢,因此逼中央政府不得不先设法搞活股市。

巴菲特:我比大多数人更关注资产负债表

巴菲特:我比大多数人更关注资产负债表
2011-05-03 03:00:09 来源: 第一财经日报(上海) 
一年一度的巴菲特股东大会吸引了全球四万名股东汇聚于美国中部小镇奥马哈聆听“股神”传道。《第一财经日报》记者有幸得到巴菲特独家专访的机会,向巴菲特提出了一些中国投资者关心的问题。

第一财经日报:您在铁路运营商柏林顿北方的投资非常成功。中国也在建造大规模的高速铁路网络,虽然中国投资者无法直接投资铁路运营商,您认为是否值得投资铁路相关产业?

巴菲特:这个完全取决于公司和其价格。我们在美国投资的是货运铁路,中国建造的是客运铁路。我虽然不知道具体的公司和股票,但是我想投资的决策取决于这个公司是否能从铁路线大规模获益。

Saizen REIT:3QFY 12 results affected by unrealized fair value loss (S&P)

Saizen REIT
Price: SGD0.14

Results Review
• 3QFY 12 results affected by unrealized fair value loss. Saizen’s 3QFY12 (Jun.) results were within our expectations with 3QFY12 net property income of JPY573.3 mln accounting for 26.8% of our original FY12 forecast. However, due to an unrealized fair value loss of JPY322.4 mln on interest rate swap related to a loan, Saizen reported a total loss after tax of JPY105.6 mln vs. a total return after tax of JPY480.4 mln in 3QFY11. Meanwhile, distributable income declined to JPY17.85 mln at the end of 3QFY12 from JPY187.2 mln at the end of 3QFY11, due to: (i) regular loan amortization of JPY50.5 mln, (ii) oneoff borrowing costs of JPY115.2 mln and (iii) one-off swap breakage costs of JPY33.9 mln. Nevertheless, Saizen does not expect this to affect semi-annual distributions as it can be offset by undeployed loan proceeds.

Small Caps: Better value in some less liquid small caps despite recent penny-stock rally, says DMG

Terence Wong, co-head of Singapore research at DMG & Partners, knows all too well what it’s like to experience the euphoria of a small-cap rally and be burnt when the party suddenly stops.

A portfolio of small-cap stocks he put together in July 2010, initially worth $1 million, gained 54% in the first nine months, beating the Straits Times Index by a mile. He gloated about his success publicly, even thinking he had the Midas touch, until lower liners started crumbling last August, falling substantially more than the blue chips, in response to Standard & Poor’s downgrade of the US sovereign debt rating and fears of contagion as the eurozone debt crisis unfolded. “A tidal wave slammed me right in the face in August, again and again,” recounts Wong. “My portfolio was smashed down by 10% in the first week of August. It didn’t get better. For the next two months, it went down 30%.”

Interra Resources in the fast lane

Manu Bhaskaran: Political risks could be a spoiler for markets

FINANCILA MARKETS ARE entering a phase that will probably last for at least the next six months, during which political developments could have a greater impact than usual. Not only are there important elections and leadership changes in the offing, growing economic and financial distress in Europe is also raising the risk of political upsets in the crisis-hit region. From a global perspective, the key political risks to watch are in the US, Europe and China. Closer to home, developments in Malaysia and Thailand also bear watching.

Assif Shameen: Sustaining the global luxury-goods boom

The camera pans the crowd outside Foxconn City in the southern Chinese city of Shenzhen that borders Hong Kong. The voice-over commentator talks about how the world’s biggest company peddling premium electronics goods is exploiting young workers by paying them a pittance and forcing them to work overtime under harsh conditions.

Then, the camera zooms in to a woman who looks no more than 20 years old and says she has been queuing up since the previous night because she wants a job at the plant, which pays higher-than-normal wages. Moreover, she hopes she will get to work overtime too. Why would anyone want to work in a factory like that? The answer is jaw-dropping: so that she can afford nice things. That presumably includes some of the stuff made inside the plant.

技术分析: 嘉茂中国商用产业信托(CapitaRetail China Trust)

嘉茂中国商用产业信托(CapitaRetail China Trust)
公司是新加坡的一个购物商场房地产投资信托,它长期投资于各类位于中国、香港和澳门的零售物业。从图表可见,这只股自2010年以来便一直横摆。其支持位和阻力位分别为1.10元和1.30元。最近,其价格开始突破其阻力位,但目前未能判定升势是否会持续,因为交易量并未增加。当价格在1.30元的水平回撤时,投资者可考虑买入。

Proposal to sell Mid Valley, Gardens malls

The Star Online > Business
Saturday May 12, 2012
Proposal to sell Mid Valley, Gardens malls

PETALING JAYA: KrisAssets Holdings Bhd has proposed to sell Mid Valley Megamall, the Gardens Mall and their related assets to its parent IGB Corp Bhd for RM4.6bil.

It said in a filing with the stock exchange that the disposal would be satisfied via cash and the issuance of 3.4 billion units in IGB REIT, the retail real estate investment trust that the latter plans to list on the Main Market of Bursa Malaysia.

Bank of China Limited (H-Share Code: 3988)- 2011 Annual Report




董 事 長 致 辭
“面 對 各 種 挑 戰 和 壓 力 ,本 行 深 入 貫 徹 落 實 科 學 發 展 觀 ,嚴 格 執 行 國 家 宏 觀 經 濟 政 策和 監 管 要 求 ,繼 續 實 施 發 展 戰 略 規 劃 ,堅 決 執 行

「 調 結 構 、擴 規 模 、防 風 險 、上 水 平 」的 方 針 ,大 力 推 進 創 新 發 展 、轉 型 發 展 、跨 境 發 展 ,取 得 了 良 好 的 經 營 業 績 。”本 人 非 常 高 興 地 向 各 位 股 東 和 各 界 朋 友 報 告 本 行2011年 經 營 業 績 : 全 年 實 現 稅 後 利 潤1,303.19億 元 ,比 上 年 增 長 18.81%; 實 現 本 行 股 東 應 享 稅 後 利潤 1,241.82 億 元 ,比 上 年 增 長 18.93%; 實 現 每 股 收 益 0.44元 ,比 上 年 增 加 0.05元 ; 平 均 總 資 產 回 報 率 1.17%,比 上 年 上 升 0.03 個 百 分 點 ; 資 產 質 量 保 持 穩 定 ,不 良 貸 款 率 控 制 在 較 低 水 平 。本 行 董 事 會 建 議 派 發 2011年 股 息 每 股 0.155元 ,將 提 交2012年5月 召 開 的 股 東 大 會 審 議 。

曹仁超 : 经济高原期 投资难度高

五月 2nd, 2012 by 曹仁超
1999年到2008年,中国原油消耗量年增长率6.6%,但产量增长率只有1.9%,同期天然气消耗年增长率15.8%,产量年增长13.1%。2009年及2010年,中国原油进口为20367万及23931万吨,分别上升13.9%和17.5%,天然气进口量为554万和936万吨,分别上升65.8%和69.4%。联合国估计,全球能源消耗量由2006至2030年上升44%,其中油气占2030年能源市场消耗量55%,Donglas-Westwood估计,2008至2012年全球陆上管道投资1800亿美元,其中亚洲占420亿美元;中国在2003年已成为全球第二大石油消耗国,估计在2012年超过美国。

Sell in May and then……
上述是石油价格在过去十年大升的部分理由,因为中国石油消耗升幅大但产量升幅有限;中国油气管道长度已由2001年2.76万公里,增加至2010年的7.85万公里,未来更将大量兴建境外油气管道约14万公里,未来中国不但大量入口石油,同时大量入口天然气,估计2030年天然气将占总能源消耗量25%或以上,参考过去中国对石油价格影响,相信未来十年天然气售价看涨,今年投资天然气股,有如2003年投资石油股道理一样。

Neptune Orient Lines: Tough going but better times ahead (OCBC)

Fair value S$1.38
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.00
versus: Current price S$1.16
12m total return forecast 19%

TOUGH GOING BUT BETTER TIMES AHEAD
• Net loss of US$254m in 1Q12
• But freight rates are now profitable
• On track to reduce cost by US$500m

Genting Singapore: 1Q12 slightly below; lower S$1.97 FV (OCBC)

Genting Singapore (GS) posted 1Q12 revenue of S$787m (-14.7% YoY), meeting 21.3% of our full-year forecast – slightly softer than expected. Net profit came in around S$211.5m (-30.9% YoY), or 20.8% of our FY estimate, as overall revenue was affected by lower win percentage and lower business volume in the premium player business. Going forward, management plans to focus on boosting its visitor numbers to its theme park and remains positive on the prospects of IMA over the longer term. Since 1Q12 results were slightly below our forecast, we opt to trim our FY12 estimates by 5-5.3% and FY13 by 2.3-2.4%, noting the impact of IMAs will likely be felt in 2013. This also eases our DCF-based fair value from S$2.02 to S$1.97. And with a sizable cash pile, we believe that an acquisition is likely on the card, although an IR in Japan has slipped down GS’ priority list. Maintain BUY.

Singapore Airlines: Missing The Mark (DMG)

Singapore Airlines: Missing The Mark
(Under Review, S$10.59, TP S$12.47)

While SIA’s revenue and EBITDA were in line, its full-year core earnings of SGD342.7m plunged by 71% y-o-y, missing our and consensus estimates by 25-27%. The poor showing was largely due to soaring price of jet fuel (up by 26.8%), and further exacerbated by moderating passenger travel and intensifying competition, which pressured load factor (-1ppts to 77.4%). SIA’s 4Q core profit came in at a mere SGD17.2m (-88% y-o-y). The group has proposed a final dividend of 10 cents (full-year 20 cents). We are putting our call UNDER REVIEW pending its analyst briefing this morning, with a downside earnings bias as the outlook remains cloudy.

Noble: Good results; upgrade to BUY (DMG)

Noble: Good results; upgrade to BUY
(BUY, S$1.17, TP S$1.60)

Within expectations, performance could be sustainable. Noble’s 1Q12 core PATMI fell 10% YoY to US$136m (+88% QoQ) and accounted for 25% of our full year estimates (versus 21% for consensus) while top line grew 14% YoY to US$22.8b (+14% QoQ). Results have shown improvement for two consecutive quarters (following 3Q11’s loss making quarter). We are positive on Noble on the back of (1) greater confidence in earnings outlook, (2) stronger performance from Sugar with Apr to Dec production cycle, and (3) potentially stronger crush margins in China. We upgrade to BUY (from NEUTRAL previously) with higher TP of S$1.60 (from S$1.30 previously) based on 14.7x FY12 P/E.

Cosco Corporation:Is there no silver-lining to the dark clouds surrounding the business?

Q1 revenue down 3%, net profit down 25%

[9/5/2012] – Cosco Corporation warns its operating margins will be under even greater pressure as low value contracts from 2010 come up for execution.

In offshore marine operations, the group warns of higher costs as it is a new entrant in the business.

Simultaneously, Cosco Corp claims to be one of the largest marine engineering groups in China with 19 orders outstanding on March 31.

Its dry bulk shipping business continues to disappoint as the Baltic Dry Index averaged 36.5% lower compared to Q1 2011.

Ezion Holdings: Looking better than ever (KE)

Ezion Holdings
Buy (unchanged)
Share price: SGD0.840
Target price: SGD1.35 (unchanged
Looking better than ever

Good set of results, maintain BUY. Ezion reported a good set of results which were within expectations. 1Q12 revenue rose by 42% YoY to USD30.6m while net profit grew by 23% YoY to USD14.1m, after adjusting for a USD11.1m one-time gain on asset disposal last year. Charter revenue from liftboat unit 4 in the Java Sea and deployment of vessel in the Gorgon gas field contributed to the rise in revenue. Maintain BUY with target price of SGD1.35.

Sunway :Wins MRT Package V4 (HLG)

Sunway Berhad
Price Target: RM3.20
Share price: RM2.61

Wins MRT Package V4
News _
MRT Corp has awarded Sunway Package V4 of the elevated MRT track works from Section 17 to Semantan Portal (see Figure #1) for RM1.17bn. Based on MRT Corp’s schedule, we expect the project to span over 4 years, commencing in CY2H12 and complete by CY2H16. Comments

CapitaLand:1Q12 below expectations on weaker development profits (cs)

CapitaLand Ltd
Price (30 Apr 12, S$) 2.94
TP (prev. TP S$) 3.58 (3.58)
Est. pot. % chg. to TP 22
52-wk range (S$) 3.32 - 2.21

1Q12 below expectations on weaker development profits;
key catalyst = CMA rerating

● CAPL’s 1Q12 PATMI ex-revaluations, impairment and divestment gains of S$68.4 mn (16.5% of our FY12E) fell 18% YoY mainly due to weaker development profits in China and Singapore.

Malaysia Smelting Corporation Berhad - Annual Report 2011

Annual Report 2011


Malaysia Smelting Corporation Berhad - Annual Report 2011



负面消息不断 海指跌破2900点

希腊问题尚未解决,摩根大通又来添乱,市场负面消息不断,令亚洲股市全面下滑。新加坡海峡时报指数昨日下挫20.20点,跌破2900点的支持水平。

  美国资产最大的银行摩根大通10日宣布,由于一项对冲投资策略出现失误,它在近六周的时间内巨亏20亿美元。消息一出震惊全球金融市场。

  此外,中国昨日宣布,4月工业增加值增速从3月的11.9%降至9.3%,低于经济学家预期。这也是自2009年5月以来的最低增幅。因此,市场对中国经济放缓的忧虑进一步增加。同时,受国内需求减弱和出口下滑影响,印度3月份工业产值意外萎缩。负面消息接踵而至,亚洲各股市也随之全面下滑。其中香港恒生指数跌1.3%,跌破20000点大关。中国上证综指跌0.63%,跌破2400点的重要心理支撑位。

Keeping account of your dividends

Keeping account of your dividends
by Geoff Howie 04:45 AM May 12, 2012
Now is a good time for shareholders to assess the return on their investments in listed companies as the months of April and May form the reporting season for first-quarter earnings results.

There are two aspects of investment returns that shareholders should consider. First, whether the price per share has gone up or down since the shareholder established the initial investment. Second, the dividend payout.

Pimco's Bill Gross Calls for QE3


Perfect Credit Storm Brewing?


Talking Numbers: 'Buy' JPM on Bad News?


Friday, May 11, 2012

Marc Faber on U.S. Equities, Economy, Euro Zone


KrisAssets to dispose assets worth RM4.6b

KrisAssets to dispose assets worth RM4.6b
2012/05/11

IGB Corporation Bhd's unit, KrisAssets Holdings Bhd, has announced the proposed disposal by the wholly-owned subsidiaries of KrisAssets of Mid Valley Megamall, Mid Valley Megamall Related
Assets, The Gardens Mall and The Gardens Related Assets, for a total disposal consideration of RM4,612.6 million.

It is to be satisfied via the proposed issuance of 3,400 million units in IGB REIT and the balance in cash, KrisAssets said in its filing to Bursa today.

Malaysia Smelting post lower Q1 pre-tax profit

Malaysia Smelting post lower Q1 pre-tax profit
2012/05/11

Malaysia Smelting Corporation Bhd's pre-tax profit for its first fiscal quarter ended March 31, 2012 fell to RM8.7 million from RM45.823 million in the corresponding quarter last year.

In contrast, revenue for the three-month period rose to RM771.904 million from RM737.873 million.

In a filing to Bursa Malaysia, the company said the revenue increase was mainly due to higher sales volume recorded by the Butterworth international tin smelting business.

'AirAsia, AirAsia X, MAS alliance vital'

'AirAsia, AirAsia X, MAS alliance vital'
2012/05/11

All airlines in the country must be able to face challenges when the Asean open sky policy comes into force in 2015 and therefore, collaboration efforts between AirAsia, AirAsia X and Malaysia Airlines (MAS) is important, says AirAsia X Chairman Tan Sri Rafidah Aziz.

"If airlines do not strengthen now, through what ever way, there will be problems. This is why AirAsia and AirAsia X is willing to continue looking at possible collaboration with MAS," she said.

MAS to get up to RM1.5b bridging loan from CIMB

MAS to get up to RM1.5b bridging loan from CIMB
In The Edge Financial Daily Today 2012
Written by Max Koh
Friday, 11 May 2012 15:19


KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysian Airline System Bhd (MAS) is close to securing up to RM1.5 billion in a bridging loan from CIMB Group Holdings Bhd, giving it ample time to structure a RM3 billion bond for its long-term needs.

According to three separate sources, the one-year bridging loan is intended to finance the national carrier’s daily operational needs. “This would give MAS some time to structure the bonds,” said a business executive familiar with the matter.

MAS upgrades business class facilities

MAS upgrades business class facilities
2012/05/11
National carrier Malaysia Airlines (MAS) is upgrading its cabin baggage policy and golden lounge waiting room facilities to
cater for the anticipated increase in business class passengers.

Golden lounge manager Mohd Husaini Ariffin said the improvement included major renovation at the lounge, from May 9 to June 18, with the addition of new features such as sports bar, kids room and games room.

Healthway Medical : Has it lost the will to improve governance and bring about transparency?

Q1 revenue down 2.3%, net profit up 24%

[10/5/2012] – Healthway Medical Corp reiterates the aging populations of China and Singapore will drive demand for private healthcare services.

But it didn't say how much of this growing demand will translate into revenue and dividends.

It also acknowledges that a manpower shortage and inflation keep driving costs higher.

It says, "the group will continue to improve the effectiveness and efficiency of its operations to sharpen its competitive edge", without giving specific details of how it will do that.

不怕股災! 法人買股投資術賺贏大盤


Is StarHub preserving cash for the spectrum auction?

StarHub's Q1 profits grow 28%

[10/5/2012] – StarHub intends to maintain its annual dividend payout of 20 cents per share, as forecasts of revenue growing in low single digits and an EBITDA margin of about 30% are maintained.

Capital expenditure is not expected to exceed 11% of revenue FY12.

It says its new LTE network will go live in the second half of the year in key business areas of Singapore, with data services being launched by the end of this year.

LTE technology will allow StarHub to increase its network capacity and offer higher speeds to meet the growing demand for smart devices and data services.

Sunway REIT: Yields with fairly low risks

Sunway REIT: Yields with fairly low risks

By InsiderAsia
Friday, 11 May 2012 13:14

SUNWAY REIT is one of the more obvious choices when it comes to real estate investment trusts (REITs) for investors on the local bourse, considering its size and liquidity. It is currently the largest REIT in terms of assets under management — which totalled more than RM4.5 billion at end-March 2012 — and a close second to Pavilion REIT in terms of market capitalisation.

Investors in the trust since its IPO, in July 2010, would have fared well. Its unit price has risen from the retail IPO price of 88 sen to the current RM1.25 while distributed income totalled some 12.2 sen during this period. That translates into gains of nearly 56% in less than two years — pretty smart returns when taking into account its relatively defensive profile. Such defensive characteristics may well continue to attract investors given the prevailing cautious sentiment amid domestic and external uncertainties. We estimate Sunway REIT's income distribution to total roughly 7.42 sen per unit for the financial year ending June 2012. That would earn unitholders a fairly attractive gross yield of 5.9% at the current price.

IGB Corporation - Land appears pricey but justified by good location

IGB Corporation
Price Target : 3.50
Last Price : 2.74

It was announced on Bursa that IGB and Selia Pantai ' in relation to the MoU signed earlier for a mixed commercial development at South Key on a piece of land measuring 36acres ' have signed two conditional shareholders' agreements for the establishment of two 70:30 joint-ventures.

- At the same time, both IGB and Selia Pantai have also signed an SPA for the acquisition of the land for RM259.1mil or RM165psf. This appears pricey, but the development is located in a prime area within Johor Bahru with excellent accessibility. Pursuant to the JV, IGB's portion would be circa RM181mil, which would be funded by borrowings and internal funds.

Klang Valley Property Market Update Q2 2012


鲁比尼:完美风暴明年到

鲁比尼:完美风暴明年到
Created 05/11/2012 - 17:47

(纽约11日讯)新末日博士鲁比尼警告,明年全球经济有面临完美风暴的危机。

他指出,明年全球经济面临四大风险因素,分别是美国经济重陷衰退、欧元区开始瓦解、新兴国家尤其是中国经济放慢,以及伊朗军事冲突,令全球经济有脱轨之虞。

鲁比尼对欧债前景尤为关注,不但预料希腊势成为首个脱离欧元区的国家,更料西班牙将步其后尘。

他指出,西班牙银行业问题的最佳解决办法,是由欧盟的救市基金即时直接注资,但遭德国及西班牙当局反对。

銷售放緩‧發展商調整步伐‧產業價料續高企

(吉隆坡11日訊)產業市場去年取得雙位數成長,然而在全球經濟展望不明和國家銀行緊縮貸款下可能風光不再,今年房產業銷售預計難逃放緩劫數,不少發展商更因此踩煞車器,調整新產業計劃推介時間和規模。

發展商展延推介房產

儘管如此,基於地價、建材和勞力等成本節節上升,產業價卻預計持續水漲船高。

去年產業市場動力十足,銷量成長14%至43萬零403項,價值更增28%,創下1千378億令吉。所有次領域的產業活動蓬勃,並由住宅產業和發展地段引領,各增19和15%,商業、工業和農業次領域緊接在後,各增10、7和5%。

麥嘉華鐵口直斷:若沒QE3‧美股或重演1987年崩盤

麥嘉華鐵口直斷:若沒QE3‧美股或重演1987年崩盤
Created 05/11/2012 - 17:43

(瑞士‧蘇黎世11日訊)《股市榮枯與末日》報告的出版人麥嘉華表示,如果聯儲局未再提出新的刺激措施,但標準普爾500指數繼續上漲,則今年下半年美國股市會出現“類似1987年”的崩盤。

標普500過1422點或崩盤

麥嘉華在蘇黎世接受彭博電視“In the Loop”節目的訪問時表示,除非聯儲局提出龐大的第三輪量化寬鬆(QE3)措施,大手筆收購債券,否則市場很難強勢上漲。

若促成長政策退場‧伯南克警告:美國復甦或前功盡棄

若促成長政策退場‧伯南克警告:美國復甦或前功盡棄
Created 05/11/2012 - 17:45

(美國‧紐約11日訊)聯儲局主席伯南克在與一些參議員舉行的會議上指出,如果幾種促進經濟成長的政策到期,美國經濟可能會遭到衝擊。

北達科他州民主黨參議員康拉德說,伯南克討論了幾種促成長政策即將到期的問題,其中包括布什時期制定的減稅政策、工薪稅減免以及延長失業福利政策,還有定於2013年1月份生效的預算削減。

美或陷更嚴重衰退

伊利諾州民主黨參議員杜賓會後表示:“伯南克強調,如果這些全部都發生的話,可能會將美國經濟推入更嚴重的衰退中。我們愈早解決這些問題,就愈可能強化美國消費者和投資人的信心。”

谢国忠:欧洲危机或致美联储提早推QE3

谢国忠:欧洲危机或致美联储提早推QE3
时间:2012-05-09 09:39:33 来源:谢国忠博客 作者:谢国忠
法国、希腊两个政治选举令全球金融市场受挫,玫瑰石顾问公司首席经济学家谢国忠周一(5月7日)表示,受益于避险资金涌入,美元、美债、黄金将出现飙升,按照德国与法国后续协议结果,预计美国股市将存在10%-20%左右的下跌空间,最后迫使美联储(FED)提早实施第三轮量化宽松(QE3)。

在谈到法国总统大选结果,谢国忠称,对于市场而言,法国总统选举结果不是好消息,德法两国此前提出的削减财政赤字计划可能被推翻,不采取紧缩政策而是一味追求经济增长,只会加速通胀风险。

谢国忠指出,欧洲经济出现危机是不可避免,预计欧元兑美元可能下探1.20水平,此后美联储主席伯南克(Ban Bernanke)可能不愿看到“美元升和美股跌”的情况发生,进而提前推出QE3。

Noble Group:1Q12: Energy Leads The Way (UOBKH)

Noble Group
Share Price S$1.17
Target Price S$1.80
Upside +53.8%

1Q12: Energy Leads The Way
Results
• Strong operating performance by Energy division led qoq rebound. Net profit for the quarter declined 45% yoy, mainly due to a US$26m loss on supply chain assets (1Q11: US$53m gain). Adjusted net profit, excluding gains/losses on supply chain assets and coupons due to perpetual securities, declined 9% yoy but rose 66% qoq to US$123m. Operating profit for the e nergy division rose 19% yoy to a record US$349m on volume expansion (+44%) and arbitrage opportunities in liquids and distillates. Margins for the division improved 0.1ppt to 2.1%.

Singapore Airlines: FY13 to remain challenging (OCBC)

SIA’s FY12 net earnings came in at S$336m, which was 25% and 17% respectively lower than the street’s and our forecasts. Management said tension in the Middle East during 4QFY12 pushed fuel cost up by 15%, which caused profit margins to contract. Furthermore, SIA in 4QFY12 recorded S$79m of one-off losses, of which S$51m was a disposal loss. For the year ahead, management guided that capacities of the parent airline, SIA Cargo and SilkAir will increase by 3%, 3% and 22% respectively. Capex in FY13 is budgeted to be ~S$1.6b. Passenger yields will likely come under further pressure though fuel prices are expected to remain high. Demand for air freight is unlikely recover before 2HFY12. We maintain our fair value estimate of S$10.85/share and HOLD rating on SIA.

S’pore Telecommunications: 4QFY12: Singapore Resilient, Australia Succumbs To Competition (UOBKH)

S’pore Telecommunications
Share Price S$3.21
Target Price S$2.94
Downside -8.4%
(Previous TP S$3.08)
4QFY12: Singapore Resilient, Australia Succumbs To Competition

Results
• SingTel reported a net profit of S$1,289m for 4QFY12, which included tax credit of S$270m due to increase in value of assets transferred to its associate company NetLink Trust. Results were in line with our expectations if we exclude the tax credit.

Elec & Eltek: Ready for a reboot (CIMB)

Elec & Eltek - HK
Current HK$22.30
Target HK$19.92
Ready for a reboot

We believe that 1Q12 was the worst quarter for E&E and expect earnings to improve from here on. The company continues to generate strong free cash flows, which will enable it to sustain its attractive dividends.

Even though 1Q net profit was only 13% of our and consensus full-year forecasts, we deem it 6% above expectations as 2H should be much stronger. The results deviation came from a better-than-expected gross margin. Our target price is still based on 8x CY13 P/E, its 5-year average. Maintain Neutral.

末日博士鲁比尼:欧元区最快三年内瓦解

鲁比尼:欧元区最快三年内瓦解

  据媒体报道,有着“末日博士”之称的国际宏观经济学领域世界知名专家鲁比尼日前表示,欧元区不会在今年瓦解,但如果以未来三到五年而言,可能会有一些欧元区国家最后决定离开欧元区,最终导致欧元区瓦解发生。鲁比尼指出,并非只有希腊,还有许多欧元区国家未来几年内必须被迫整顿公共与民间债务,预期终将有一个以上的国家离开欧元区。他说:“如果只是小小的希腊退出,还能掌控大局。但如果是意大利或西班牙退出,实际上就是欧元区瓦解。”根据路透社访调6 4名经济学家后的最新结果认为,欧债危机最糟的局面还没来临,但欧元区将安然度过2012年,不过预期法国未来三个月内将失去A A A顶级信评,意大利、西班牙与比利时将进一步遭降评。

Fortune Real Estate Investment Trust: Exceeding expectations (OCBC)

Fair value HK$5.22
add: 12m dividend forecast HK$0.32
versus: Current price HK$4.17
12m total return forecast 33%

EXCEEDING EXPECTATIONS
• Beating estimates
• Healthy balance sheet
• AEIs provide good returns

1Q12 results were above our and the street’s forecasts. Net property income of HK$185m was up 15.1% YoY; 9.9ppt came from organic growth, while 5.2ppt was due to the one-and-a-half months contribution from Belvedere Square and Provident Square, which were acquired in mid Feb. DPU climbed 14% QoQ to 7.78 HK cents. With the next three quarters seeing full contribution from the two properties, we raise our FY12 DPU forecast from 29.4 HK cents to 31.7 HK cents, up 20.5% YoY from FY11 DPU. We maintain our BUY rating and raise our fair value from HK$4.88 to HK$5.22.

OKP Holdings: Conference call takeaways - Growth trajectory intact (CIMB)

OKP Holdings
BUY; TP:S$0.75
Price @10/5/12: S$0.545
52-week range (SGD): 0.52 – 0.69

Conference call takeaways - Growth trajectory intact
What happens
• Share price has corrected 14% this week. We believe this is related to the perceived headline numbers from recent 1Q12 result.
• Result is in-line with estimates. On first glance, the headline numbers recorded a 42% fall in profit to S$3.1m, though we believe that this set of result is broadly in-line with our estimates for FY12.

Parkson Retail: Earnings exceeded expectations (DMG)

PARKSON RETAIL ASIA BUY
Price SS$1.42
Previous S$1.50
Target S$1.68

Earnings exceeded expectations, upgrade to BUY
Parkson reported a 6% growth in 3QFY12 PATMI to S$9.7m, on the back of a 20% growth in revenue to S$106.7m. 9M12 earnings exceeded ours and consensus expectations accounting for 80% of our FY12F due to: 1) better gross margins and 2) lower operating costs. All markets recorded strong 9M12 SSS growth with Malaysia (+9.5%), Vietnam (+11.8%) and Indonesia (+9.8%). We raise our FY12-14F earnings forecast by 2-9%. Taking into account the S$72m cash raised from its IPO, the Group is sitting on S$188m cash. Upgrade to BUY with a new higher DCF-derived TP of S$1.68 (WACC: 9.2%, terminal growth rate: 2%). This translates into 19.6x FY13F P/E (-1SD of its mean historical trading band) which we feel is justified given the stock offers exposure into three high growth markets of Malaysia, Vietnam and Indonesia.

SingTel: Lacking Catalysts (KE)

SingTel
Sell (unchanged)
Share price: SGD3.21
Target price: SGD2.82 (from SGD2.80)
Lacking Catalysts

Within expectations. FY12 results and dividends were in line with market expectations. FY13 looks set to be a repeat of FY12, but with the additional dampener of start-up losses from its new Digital L!fe division to contend with. Guidance was subdued, with no catalysts to drive either growth or yield. We maintain our SELL call, with a SOTP-derived target price of $2.82. The dividend yield of 4-5% is not attractive when compared to M1 or StarHub’s better yields and higher potential for earnings upside.

曹仁超:股票是2012年最佳投资方式

曹仁超:1月份A股市场已到底部
来源:凤凰卫视 发布:2012-01-29 12:53:19


Genting Singapore: At an Inflexion Point (KE)

Genting Singapore
Buy (unchanged)
Share price: SGD1.67
Target price: SGD2.00 (unchanged)
At an Inflexion Point

Turning the corner. 1Q12 results surprised on the upside. More importantly, Resorts World Sentosa’s (RWS) 1Q12 VIP volume surged 29% QoQ. Share of both VIP volume and mass market GGR recovered 3ppts QoQ. Although management now represents that the liberalisation of Japan's casino industry is slowing, we are unfazed. VIP volumes in Singapore are recovering strongly and we maintain our BUY call on GENS with a DCF-derived TP of SGD2.00.

Singapore Airlines: Flying on fumes (DBSV)

Singapore Airlines
HOLD S$10.59
Price Target : 12-Month S$ 10.00
Flying on fumes
• FY12 net profit of S$336m (-69% y-o-y) below expectation, due to unexpected loss in 4Q12
• Premium travel still shaky; High fuel prices will pressure margins but balance sheet firm with cash and investments of nearly S$4 per share
• Maintain HOLD, TP S$10. Prefer SIA Engineering

Noble Group: At an inflection point (DBSV)

Noble Group
BUY S$1.17 STI : 2,903.60
Upgrade from HOLD
Price Target : 12-Month S$ 1.40 (Prev S$ 1.30)
At an inflection point
• 1Q12 core profit of US$136m (+88% q-o-q) was above our expectations of US$100-120m
• Agricultural harvest and further expansion of Energy to boost profits sequentially
• Raise FY12-14F earnings by 3-4% on higher MMO contribution
• Upgrade to Buy, TP lifted to S$1.40

1Q12 profit above. Noble reported 1Q12 core profit of US$135.8m (+88% q-o-q, -10% y-o-y) excluding US$25.7m loss on supply chain assets. This was above our US$100-120m expectations but in line with consensus estimate of US$138m. The variance versus our estimates came from better than expected volumes in Metals, Mining and Ores (MMO) segment and lower tax rate of 11% versus our 13% assumption.

Hutchison Port Holdings Trust: we stay positive on compelling yield and Yantian's return to growth track in April (JPM)

Hutchison Port Holdings Trust
Price: $0.76
Price Target: $0.95
1Q12 results in-line; we stay positive on compelling yield and Yantian's return to growth track in April

 1Q12 results met expectations: Net profit for the quarter came in at HK$463MM, in line with the company’s own projection (+1%). The results achieved 22% of our FY12 estimate (HK$2,111MM), in line with expectations, as 1Q is typically a low season for the container trade. Maintain OW.

曾淵滄專欄 2012 05 11: 對冲變炒賣輸鑊甘

對冲變炒賣輸鑊甘
國泰(293)發盈警,兩個理由,一是油價高漲,二是生意下降,很湊巧,發盈警之時,國際油價正在下跌,跌幅頗大,前幾年,國際油價高漲,於是國泰就打算以石油期貨來對冲,那裏知道,一搞期貨,油價就大跌,虧了好多錢。

近年來油價也曾經高漲,不知道國泰有沒有再搞石油期貨的買賣?同類的事在2008年,也發生在中信泰富(267)之上,中信泰富在澳洲投資開礦,需要用大量澳元,於是買下大量澳元期貨,結果澳元大跌,中信泰富虧大錢,管理層換人。

Johor Mid Valley City land to cost RM259mil

The Star Online > Business
Friday May 11, 2012
Johor Mid Valley City land to cost RM259mil

PETALING JAYA: IGB Corp Bhd has agreed on a price of RM259mil or RM165 per sq ft with Selia Pantai Sdn Bhd for three parcels of leasehold land measuring 36 acres in Plentong, Johor.

The land is for a proposed Mid Valley City-type mixed development, via a joint venture between IGB Corp and Selia Pantai.

IGB Corp will have a 70% stake in the joint venture, with the balance owned by Selia Pantai.

Macquarie Int’l Infrastructure Fund:Picture looks good (AM)

Macquarie Int’l Infrastructure Fund
LAST CLOSE: S$0.575
FAIR VALUE: S0.690
Picture looks good

· Good set of results, very positive signs: MIIF released 2012 Q1 results that indicate strong sustainable performance. Generally, pricing power was maintained and organic growth continues to be delivered.

 Changshu Xinghua Port (CXP) enjoying pricing power: The port slightly underperformed our expectations in volumes, but this was more than made up by “higher average tariffs on general cargo volumes”, raising revenues by 8.8% on a 2% fall in tonnage. A one-off expense with regard to building a temporary stackyard to store the large paper and pulp volumes dampened EBITDA margin this quarter to 43% from 52% - we expect full-year margin at 48%.

Neptune Orient Lines Ltd: Could have been the worst quarter of the year (Phillip)

Neptune Orient Lines Ltd
Target Price (SGD) 1.19
- Previous Target Price (SGD) 1.24
Closing Price (SGD) 1.16
Expected Capital Gains (%) 2.6%
Expected Dividend Yield (%) 0.0%
Expected Total Return (%) 2.6%

Could have been the worst quarter of the year

Company Overview
Through its container shipping arm, APL, NOL is the 7th largest container shipping company in the world and derives more than half of its revenue from America. The Group also provides supply chain solutions through APL Logistics.
 Larger than expected losses of US$254mn
 Rates declined 7% due to weak European routes
 1QFY12 could have been the worst quarter for the year
 Widened our loss forecast for the year
 Upgrade to Neutral with revised TP of S$1.19

Otto Marine : Executing the Consolidation (SIAS)

Otto Marine Limited
Executing the Consolidation
 Intrinsic Value S$0.159
 Prev Closing S$0.097

Otto Marine Limited’s (Otto) 1Q results is expected as the company is consolidating its geophysical and subsea services divisions, which explained the bulk of 1Q’s US$8.3m losses. We maintain our expectation that the situation is likely to reverse across the next three quarters as the geophysical division demobilizes two of its vessels and the subsea services division executes its contracts.

Perennial China Retail Trust: Awaiting a turnaround (CIMB)

Perennial China Retail Trust
Current S$0.51
Target S$0.59

Awaiting a turnaround
A strong buffer of earn-out fundsprotecteddividend yields, but operational numbers disappointed with profits from joint entitycoming in weak.Repositioning and leasing of Shenyang malls are likely to come tofruitionin 4Q12-1Q13.

1Q12 DPU was in line at 24% of our and consensus full-year estimates, backed by earn-out funds. We adjust FY12-14 earnings and lower our RNAV target price (still at 35% discount to RNAV) on longer gestation and lower rents. Maintain Outperform, with pick-up in leasing momentum/retail sales as catalysts.

ASL Marine: Enquiries for newbuilds remain healthy (OCBC)

ASL MARINE
Fair value S$0.75
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.015
versus: Current price S$0.64
12m total return forecast 20%

Enquiries for newbuilds remain healthy
• Results better than expected
• Highest order book since 3QFY09
• Stock has done well but still a BUY

OKP Holdings: Focus Still on Project Selection and Return (SIAS)

OKP Holdings Limited
Focus Still on Project Selection and Return
 Intrinsic Value S$0.755
 Prev Close S$0.590

OKP Holdings Limited (OKP) released its 1Q FY12 results on 8 May. Net profit came in at S$3.05m on revenue of S$25.0m. Lesser revenue was recognized year-on-year due to the rapid completion of the S$120m CTE widening project in spite of additional variation works. OKP has several large scale projects on its order book, e.g. two expressway projects with combined value of S$137m and we understand that their progress remains healthy. The more recent S$75.3m project to expand the CTE/TPE/SLE interchange awarded in Feb-12 is currently in the design phase and construction will ramp up in 3Q. While we had expected a more moderate 1Q, we further adjusted our revenue and net profit forecast to S$117.5m and S$17.3m for FY12F in view of the low base in 1Q. Maintain Increase Exposure.

Asia Enterprises: Expect a better second half (NRA)

Asia Enterprises
Current Price S$0.26 10 May 2012
Fair Value S$0.32
Expect a better second half

 Cutting forecasts but maintain Overweight. Asia Enterprises (AEH) 1Q12 net profit of S$0.9m was 16% below our expectation due mainly to lower-than-expected GPM. Though we had expected weak demand for the 1H, the price erosion was nevertheless greater-than-expected and we cut our FY12-14 forecasts by 28%, 19% and 18% respectively. We also lower our fair value by 4 cents to S$0.32, as we roll forward to FY13 but pegged at 0.8x PBR now, instead of 1x PBR. The fair value implies 16x or 7x ex-net cash FY12 PER. Though near-term valuation is not cheap, we maintain our Overweight rating as we like the company's strong track record generating positive free cash flow and generous dividend payout.

Cosco Corporation: Worst is not over (DBSV)

Cosco Corporation
FULLY VALUED S$1.00 STI : 2,931.98
Price Target : 12-month S$ 0.88

• 1Q12 net profit missed expectations by 15%
• Weak shipping income and low-priced shipbuilding contracts were the main culprits
• Offshore segment remains the silver lining
• Maintain FULLY VALUED and S$0.88 TP

Highlights
A disappointing 1Q12. Cosco’s 1Q12 net profit of S$27.8m (-25% y-o-y and -28% q-o-q) fell short of market expectations by 15%, making up only 21% and 20% of our and consensus’ FY12 estimates. The underperformance came from weak shipping earnings led by low freight rates, and lower than expected profits from low-priced shipbuilding contracts secured in 2010/11.

Singapore Airlines: Larger-than-expected yield drop (CIMB)

Singapore Airlines
Current S$10.59
Target S$9.35
Larger-than-expected yield drop

SIA significantly underperformed our forecast of S$120m core net profit for the 4Q, instead registering core earnings of only S$22m, with lower-than-expected yields the main culprit.The bleak forward guidance suggests that the stock could come under further pressure.

SIA’s full-year core net profit was 26% below our forecast and 35% below consensus. We cut target multiple to 0.85x P/BV (2 s.d. below mean), from 0.95x P/BV (-1 s.d.) We reduce earnings estimates on weaker yields and introduce FY15 numbers. Maintain Underperform.

Ezion Holdings: Gearing for growth (CIMB)

Ezion Holdings
Current S$0.82
Target S$1.12
Gearing for growth

1Q surpassed expectations as Ezion continues to soar, accompanied by yet another order win, this time a marine logistics contract for the Gladstone LNG project. More could be on the cards as the outcome for another Australia LNG project should be known by July.

At 23% of our full-year number, 1Q core earnings were above our and consensus expectations. We expect stronger quarters ahead. We lift our FY12-14 EPS estimates by 3-11% and raise our target price, still pegged to blended P/E and P/BV valuations. Maintain Outperform.

SUNWAY: MRT Job Well Expected

SUNWAY (FV RM3.31- BUY)
Price Target : 3.31
Last Price : 2.32
Corporate News Flash: MRT Job Well Expected

THE BUZZ
Yesterday Sunway informed Bursa Malaysia that Mass Rapid Transit Corp SB (MRT Corp) announced in a press statement on 9 May 2012 that Sunway Construction SB, a subsidiary of Sunway, has won the bid for the Sg Buloh-Kajang (SBK) MRT Line, Package V4. This involves the construction and completion of the viaduct guideway and other associated works from Section 17, Petaling Jaya to the Semantan Portal, for a contract sum of RM1.17bn. It said it will announce on Bursa Malaysia upon receipt and acceptance of the letter of award from MRT Corp.

ECS - Smooth sailing

Price Target : 1.70
Last Price : 1.62

Actual vs. Expectations
1Q12 net profit of RM8.1m was in line with expectations and accounted for 24.2% and 23.7% of ours and the street's full year estimate respectively.

Dividends No dividend was announced during the quarter.

Key Result Highlights
YoY, the 1Q12 revenue of RM305.0m increased by 9.5%, thanks to higher performance from all its three business segments, namely ICT distribution (+5%), Enterprise systems (+18%) and IT services (+40%). The higher sales in its ICT distribution segment were mainly driven by more retailers stocking up for PC Fairs during March. Enterprise systems and IT services on the other hand were mainly boosted by higher sales of networking products, enterprise software and completion of a few project transactions. Despite high single digit revenue growth, the group's net profit was much higher by 15%, thanks to better gross profit margin in its Enterprise Systems and IT services segments.

CapitaLand : Mastering the art of diversification (Phillip)

CapitaLand Ltd
Target Price (SGD) 2.98
- Previous Target Price (SGD) -
Closing Price (SGD) 2.73
Expected Capital Gains (%) 9.2%
Expected Dividend Yield (%) 1.1%
Expected Total Return (%) 10.3%

Mastering the art of diversification
Company Overview
CapitaLand is one of Asia's largest real estate companies. Headquartered and listed in Singapore, the company's core businesses in real estate, hospitality and real estate financial services are focused in growth cities in Asia Pacific and Europe.

Starhub : Great start to the year! But still too pricey! (Phillip)

Starhub Ltd
Target Price (SGD) 2.94
- Previous Target Price (SGD) 2.90
Closing Price (SGD) 3.19
Expected Capital Gains (%) -7.8%
Expected Dividend Yield (%) 6.3%
Expected Total Return (%) -1.6%

Great start to the year! But still too pricey!

Starhub (STH) is the 2nd largest Telecommunications company in Singapore. The company also has a very strong PayTV franchise with subscriber base of more than 500k that is 60% larger than its closest competitor.

新电信瞄准电视市场

新电信已有mio TV业务,但接下来仍要专注于发展电视市场,该集团透露,也有兴趣通过收购其他公司来发展电视市场。

王阳发 报道
ongyh@sph.com.sg

  已大举进军手机广告市场的新加坡电信集团(SingTel),下一个要集中火力发展的是电视市场。

  新电信已有mio TV业务,它昨日透露接下来仍要专注于发展电视市场。该集团两个月前砸下3亿2100万美元(4亿新元)全面收购美国手机广告方案供应商Amobee公司,而在积极发展手机广告市场的同时,它也有兴趣通过收购其他公司来发展电视市场。

云顶新加坡首季净利跌33%

云顶新加坡旗下赌场业务的营收减少19%,日均收入为728万元,比滨海湾金沙的日均收入978万元逊色。

郭书真 报道
queks@sph.com.sg

  云顶新加坡(Genting Singapore)今年第一季的净利下跌33%,旗下赌场业务的营收减少19%,日均收入为728万元,比滨海湾金沙(MBS)的日均收入978万元逊色。

  云顶新加坡今年第一季的净利报2亿零546万元,每股盈利1.68分。

  该集团昨天公布的业绩显示,今年第一季,圣淘沙名胜世界(RWS)的非赌场业务营业额比去年同期增加16%,至1亿2630万元。

投资者趁低吸购 海指止跌回稳

希腊政坛乱局暂时无解,令区域股市大多乌云笼罩,持续下跌。新加坡海峡时报指数昨日在盘中也跌破2900点的支持水平。不过因闭市前投资者趁低吸购,海指止跌回稳,微起2.69点。

  希腊政局乱象依旧,若它退出欧元区,那么持有其国债的欧洲央行以及各欧元区成员国必会蒙受损失,一旦波及西班牙和意大利等债务危机边缘国家,欧债危机可能会进一步升级。中国主权财富基金——中投公司已表示停止购买欧元区政府主权债券。此外,中国昨日宣布4月份进出口增长疲软,远低于预期,加重了投资者对中国经济增速放缓的担忧。因此,区域股市跌多升少,日本、香港和韩国均下滑。

  海指昨日低开后,午盘跌至盘中最低2887.82点,随后投资者逐步进场吸购,推动股市回弹,收于2903.60点。成交量在连续多日下挫后,终开始微增。由前日的17亿上涨至昨日的19亿9920万股,总值也升至15亿1480万元。盘中上升股146只,下跌股253只。

Genting Singapore posts 33% fall in Q1 profit

Genting Singapore posts 33% fall in Q1 profit
04:46 AM May 11, 2012
SINGAPORE - Genting Singapore, which owns one of the country's two multi-billion-dollar casino complexes, yesterday said first-quarter net profit fell 33 per cent on-year to S$205.5 million due to lower gaming revenue.

Profits were also dragged by greater depreciation after the opening of new hotels and attractions at its Universal Studios theme park, the Singapore unit of Malaysia's Genting said.

Bernanke: US banking system healthier after crisis

Bernanke: US banking system healthier after crisis
Updated 11:37 PM May 10, 2012
WASHINGTON- Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said on Thursday the US banking system had made substantial progress towards becoming healthier since the financial crisis but noted there were still problem lending areas.

"Conditions in the banking system - and the financial sector more broadly - have improved significantly in the past few years," he told a banking conference in Chicago.

Speaking by teleconference from Washington, he noted that the capital and liquidity positions of banks had been strengthened but said home mortgage lending continued to be very tight.

SIA shares plunge after shock quarterly loss

SIA shares plunge after shock quarterly loss
by AGENCIES, WITH ADDITIONAL REPORTING BY YVONNE CHAN Updated 10:45 PM May 10, 2012
SINGAPORE - Shares of Singapore Airlines (SIA) on Thursday plunged to their lowest level in more than four months after the world's second-largest carrier posted an unexpected fourth-quarter loss, hit by weak demand and high fuel prices.

SIA shares fell 30 cents, or 2.8 per cent, to close at S$10.29 each on Thursday on a turnover of nearly 3.5 million shares.

Chinese govt 'to levy property taxes in more cities'

Chinese govt 'to levy property taxes in more cities'
04:45 AM May 11, 2012
SHANGHAI - China will levy property taxes in more cities this year and expand pilot programmes in Shanghai and Chongqing, the Shanghai Securities News reported yesterday, citing an official at the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development.

China's State Council, the country's Cabinet, has already decided to expand the scheme and will likely adopt the "Shanghai model", according to which only certain classes of new homes are subject to property tax, the newspaper said.

2012-0509-57金錢爆(希臘鬼話)


Thursday, May 10, 2012

Hutchison Port Hldg Trust:Will it meet its 2012 DPU guidance - which of the brokers is right?

FY12 Q1 revenue 6% short of projection, net profit remains flat

[8/5/2012] – Hutchison Port Holdings Trust feels consolidation among shipping liners will enhance competitiveness of its ports.

The Trust feels its ports provide the necessary infrastructure and remain preferred ports-of-call for mega vessels.

Globally, carriers are entering into vessel sharing agreements to consolidate traffic in larger ports and reduce their costs.

The Trust is confident of growth in throughput at its ports, given their strategic location and market-leading position.

Noble Group : How will the new CEO perform today?

Q1 preview by DBS Vickers

[8/5/2012] – DBS Vickers expects Noble Group to report a profit of US$100 mln to US$120 mln, when it reports Q1 earnings today.

It says a QoQ rise of US$72.2 mln core profit should be driven by a rise in South American crush margins and strong coal volume growth, due to the ramping up of Noble’s Australian mines and expansion of Berau contract volumes.

SingTels-Q4-net-profit-up-30-onyear


SIA to focus on potential tie-ups to ride out profit slump

SIA to focus on potential tie-ups to ride out profit slump
By Yvonne Chan | Posted: 10 May 2012

SINGAPORE: Singapore Airlines (SIA) is focusing on potential tie-ups to up its connectivity to regional markets and weather the turbulent times. This, as the legacy carrier reported sharply lower profits in the fiscal year to March.

SIA's share price slipped 2.8 per cent on Thursday after its bottomline took a nose dive.

Shukor Yusof, an analyst with Standard & Poor's, said: "The numbers with Singapore Airlines is not unusual... It is a bit unexpected because of the intensity that they're facing from the global market.

Good-progress-made-to-boost-connectivity-between-Spore-Iskandar-Msia


Genting Singapore posts 33% fall in 1Q profit

Genting Singapore PLC, which owns one of Singapore’s two multibillion-dollar casino complexes, posted a 33% fall in first quarter net profit on Thursday, due to lower gaming revenues.

The Singapore unit of Malaysia’s Genting earned $205.5 million in the January-March period, down from $305.4 million a year earlier.

Higher depreciation with the opening of new attractions in Genting’s theme park in Singapore, as well as new hotels and a museum, also hit its earnings.

Singapore, Hong Kong Property Are Still Good Investments: Analyst


More Downside for China Housing Prices: Pro


Solid Fundamentals in China Residential Property Sector: Expert


分享锦集:第二线优质股不难找

分享锦集:第二线优质股不难找
Created 05/10/2012 - 12:12

要在股市赚钱,你必须遵守一个原则:你所买的,必须是好股,而买价必须便宜。

一只股票,无论怎样好,如果价格太高,也不可买进。因为价值被高估的股票需要更长的时间,价值才能追上价格。而时间就是金钱,浪费时间就是浪费金钱,浪费金钱的人,不可能致富。

劣股一概不买

你的资金无论多么雄厚,总是有限的,要致富,必须让你有限的资金,赚取最高的回酬。投资者只应买价值被低估的好股,其理至明。

Skytrax降为观察 马航失守5星评级

Skytrax降为观察 马航失守5星评级
Created 05/10/2012 - 12:06

(吉隆坡9日讯)马航(MAS,3786,主板贸服股)近来祸不单行,不仅转亏为盈之路阻碍重重,世界最大航空研究机构Skytrax更考虑将之降级至“观察”评级,失守原五星级航空公司地位。

《The Edge》财经日报报道,Skytrax考量马航乘客的负面意见后作出降级决定。

据了解,近来有马航乘客在Skytrax网站上反映,马航服务“不舒服”且“不温暖”,也有人投诉飞机维修不善,更有者将马航与新加坡航空和印尼航空比较后做出不利评论。

马航上周与亚洲航空(AirAsia,5099,主板贸服股)宣告撤销换股计划,主要是受职工会压力。

传马航获过渡贷款有利发债 联昌国际料成主理商

传马航获过渡贷款有利发债 联昌国际料成主理商
Created 05/10/2012 - 19:26

(吉隆坡10日讯)消息透露,马航(MAS,3786,主板贸服股)已获得联昌国际(CIMB,1023,主板金融股)提供一笔过渡贷款,作为马航发行30亿令吉债券所需资金。

根据汤森路透报导,市场传出的该笔过渡贷款,借贷期为1年。

或以飞机抵押

“这将给予马航充裕的空间,来推动用于应付中长期所需的30亿令吉回教债券。”

由于回教债券并不像普通发行的债券一般,但比较类似资产抵押型的债券,除了让投资者更加安心,也可使马航节省借贷成本。

投資者擔心歐債危機火頭重燃‧亞股皆墨

投資者擔心歐債危機火頭重燃‧亞股皆墨
Created 05/10/2012 - 10:38

(吉隆坡9日訊)希臘政局動盪,投資者擔心歐債危機的火頭重燃,令亞洲股市再受衝擊,臨尾時全面下滑。

綜指跌5.70點

本區域股市今日跌幅介於0.26至1.65%,其中大馬富時綜指滑落5.70點或0.36%,以1584.90點的全日最低點挂收。

全場成交量共12億8千118萬股,下跌股450項,上升股僅273項。

希臘大選後,各政黨領導人無力組成新一屆政府,而左翼政黨聯盟表明,希臘為取得援助而作出的承諾已經失效。投資者擔心希臘最終要債務違約,甚至可能脫離歐元區,負面情緒打擊股市購興。

PCRT Q1 falls short of profit forecast

Published May 10, 2012
PCRT Q1 falls short of profit forecast
Bymichelle tan print |email this article PERENNIAL China Retail Trust (PCRT), which was listed on the mainboard of the Singapore Exchange (SGX) back in June last year, posted a set of disappointing results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2012, with profit for the period coming in 52.1 per cent lower than previously projected numbers (disclosed in the prospectus) at $1.8 million.

The lacklustre bottomline was a result of weaker than expected profit contributions from PCRT's jointly controlled entity - in the form of a 50 per cent equity interest in Shenyang Summit - which came in 85.3 per cent lower than the group's earlier forecasts at $910,000.

Raffles Education posts net profit of $1.54m in Q3

Raffles Education posts net profit of $1.54m in Q3
ByNisha Ramchandani print |email this article HELPED by a fair-value gain, Raffles Education Corporation posted a net profit of $1.54 million for the third quarter ended March 31, compared with a restated net loss of $0.46 million for Q3FY11.

Revenue dipped 5 per cent year-on-year to $36 million on the back of lower revenue from its Asia Pacific (ex-China) operations, reduced contributions from Zhongfa College following the divestment of a 50 per cent interest in Value Vantage as well as lower enrolment at its colleges in China.

巴菲特:投资只需学好两门课

巴菲特:投资只需学好两门课
2012年05月10日 13:19 来源: 深圳晚报


深圳晚报讯 5月初,一年一度伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司股东大会在巴菲特的故乡美国内布拉斯加州的奥马哈如期而至。在这场被誉为全球投资者的盛宴中,巴菲特不仅单膝跪地向比亚迪员工“求婚”,还大方传授自己的投资秘诀“投资没那么复杂,只需学好两门课程,一是如何给企业估值,二是如何看待股市波动”。
  今年同样也有“求婚”插曲,既去年向比亚迪员工“求婚”后,今年在比亚迪展台前,巴菲特单膝点地向中国员工李巍求婚。有了去年同事的经验,李巍毫不犹豫地说:“我愿意!”巴菲特说,“那我要做婚前财产公证。”伯克希尔董事奥尔森也跑来争婚,大喊“她是我的!”

Pan-United: A Good Start to 2012 (SIAS)

Pan-United Corporation Ltd
A Good Start to 2012
 Intrinsic Value S$0.700
 Prev Closing S$0.510

Pan-United Corporation Ltd’s (Pan-U) PATMI grew by a stunning 42.8% QoQ to S$9.5m on revenue of S$162.2m in 1Q FY12. We are surprised by the significant topline and bottom line growth as we were concerned about short-term margin pressure previously. The good set of results was mainly due to higher contribution from BBM division and smaller losses from shipping division. We raise our FY12F PATMI forecast to S$34.1m from our previous estimates of S$30.4m. Due to changes in our forecast, our economic profit model arrives at a new intrinsic value of S$0.70 per share, which represents a 38% upside based on current price. Reiterate ‘Invest’ rating on Pan-U.

Neptune Orient Lines: On track for profits in 2012 (CIMB)

Neptune Orient Lines
Current S$1.16
Target S$1.65

1Q12 core net loss wasUS$255m, against our profit forecast of US$96m for the year. We consider this to be broadly in line, as2Q losses should narrow before NOL starts booking profits in 2H12 on spot-rate increases and cost savings.

ASL Marine: Earnings to accelerate on record order intake (CIMB)

ASL Marine
Current S$0.64
Target S$0.80
Earnings to accelerate on record order intake

Like its management, ASL’s results were steady in 3Q. Underpinned by a strong order book of S$642m, earnings could accelerate in FY13. And we expect its share price to move in lock-step with the upswing in earnings.

At 31% of full-year (9M at 70%), 3Q was in line with consensus and our expectations. We raise our FY13-14 EPS by 8-12% as we revise our order book recognition schedule. We lift our target price, now at 0.9x CY12 P/BV to reflect higher ROEs (previous 0.8x). Outperform maintained.

SingTel: Seasonally strong end to the year (CIMB)

SingTel
Current S$3.16
Target S$3.36
Seasonally strong end to the year

SingTel’s core net profit met both ours and market expectations with a variance of +1% and -2% respectively. The year ended strongly with seasonally lower subscriber acquisition costs. It issued a subdued guidance for FY13, which is broadly in line with our forecast.’

It declared a final DPS of 9 cts (68% payout), in line with expectations. SingTel remains a Neutral as it lacks re-rating catalysts with competitive and regulatory risks at its associates. Downside risks to share price will be limited by is fairly attractive dividend yields. Tweaking our forecast after updating FY12 P&L but no change to our target price. StarHub remains our top pick.

Otto Marine: Still a long way to go (CIMB)

Otto Marine
Current S$0.097
Target S$0.080
Still a long way to go

At 59% of our full-year loss forecast, 1Q12 core loss is worse than expected, by both CIMB and the market, on weaker-than-expected revenue. Earnings visibility is poor, made worse by convoluted chartering arrangements. We are unable to detect any turnaround.

Factoring in its recent rights dilution and weaker profitability, we slash our EPS for FY12-14 by 22-101%. Still at 0.6x CY12 P/BV (bottom end of its trading range), our target price has been reduced. Maintain Underperform.

Parkson Retail Asia: Time to bargain shop (CIMB)

Parkson Retail Asia
Current S$1.42
Target S$1.80
Time to bargain shop

3Q12 was weaker than expected due to changes in the promotional calendar and soft consumer spending in Vietnam. Still, Malaysia’s SSSG slowdown should reverse in 4Q, while Indonesia stays strong. These are expected to provide catalysts.

3Q core profit (20% of our and consensus FY12) is 5% below expectation. We cut EPS by 1-4% to factor in likely prolonged sales weakness in Vietnam but maintain Outperform and target price (20x CY13 EPS, 20% discount to SEA retail peers). Maintain Outperform.

Singapore Airlines: 4QFY12: Shocking Net Loss Of S$38m (UOBKH)

Singapore Airlines
Share Price S$10.59
Target Price S$9.00
Downside -15.0%
(Previous TP S$11.90)

4QFY12: Shocking Net Loss Of S$38m. Downgrade To SELL
• Shocking net loss of S$38m. SIA’s net loss surprised the market with a S$38m net loss for 4QFY12, mainly because of: a) unexpected operating loss from the parent airline, and b) S$51m loss on disposal of B747 aircraft.

Ezion Holdings: 1Q12: Secures Second Curtis Island Marine Logistics Contract (UOBKH)

Ezion Holdings
Share Price S$0.84
Target Price S$1.34
Upside +59.5%
1Q12: Secures Second Curtis Island Marine Logistics Contract

• No surprises. Ezion Holdings (Ezion) reported turnover and net profit of US$30.6m (+42% yoy) and US$14.1m (-14.1%) for 1Q12. EBIT, PBT and net profit were lower because previous year’s 1Q had the benefit of a vessel disposal of US$11.0m. The higher turnover was due to the impact of: a) one additional liftboat - liftboat no. 4 - which is currently on a 3-year time-charter to Indonesia’s Pertamina, and b) Ezion’s first service rig which is chartered to Maersk and working in offshore Denmark. Ezion’s gross margin declined by 12.1ppt in 1Q12 because liftboat no. 4 is deployed on time charter which typically has a lower margin (but equal absolute earnings) than bareboat charter. This is Ezion’s first time-charter contract for a liftboat. Ezion expects to earn higher absolute earnings from liftboat time charter contracts once it is past the initial learning curve.

Sunway Bhd: The MRT laggard makes tracks (CIMB)

Sunway Bhd
Current RM2.37
Target RM2.70
The MRT laggard makes tracks

Sunway finally made tracks with the MRT project, clinching a RM1.2bn package and its biggest rail job to date. Though this does not affect our forecasts as it is part of our new job assumption, it should trigger interest in Sunway as it is one of the big MRT winners.

We apply a higher construction P/E of 13x, in line with our target market P/E which was revised from 12.6x. This raises our target price which we continue to peg to a 30% discount to RNAV. Upgrade from Neutral to Trading Buy, in line with our trading call on the sector which factors in political risks. Project wins are key catalysts.

MIIF: Buoyant dividend income in 1Q (DBSV)

Buoyant dividend income in 1Q
• Higher dividend income in 1Q12 driven by organic growth and bigger stake in Taiwan cable TV asset
• Key risk is toll rate cut at Hua Nan Expressway, but this is already expected
• Risk-reward continues to be attractive given 9.5% yield; Maintain BUY with TP of S$0.64

Highlights
1Q12 results in line. The fund generated net dividend income of S$21.3m, up 181% y-o-y, largely owing to the higher 47.5% stake in Taiwan Broadband Communications (TBC), compared to 20% last year. Even if we strip out the impact of a larger stake, dividends from TBC grew 6%, in line with organic growth at the asset last year. To note, 1Q dividend income is derived only from TBC (half-yearly payout) as the other two assets – Changshu Xinghua Port (CXP) and Hua Nan Expressway (HNE) – only pay dividends once a year in the 3rd quarter of the year.

PARKWAY LIFE REIT: Maintains resilience during challenging times

PARKWAY LIFE REIT
Price S$1.825
Previous S$2.07
Target  S$2.07

PREIT achieved 1Q12 DPU of 2.6 S¢ (+8.3%), representing ~26% of our FY12 estimates. NPI was up 5.6% YoY, which was mainly attributed to full-quarter contribution from acquisitions made during 1Q11 and higher rental income from Singapore properties. Lower finance cost, a result of lower rates locked in during refinancing, enabled PREIT to achieve the higher growth in 1Q12 DPU. It recently marked its foray into the Malaysian market, with the acquisition of strata-titled units at the Gleneagles Medical Centre in KL. Going forward, management remains cautiously optimistic with regard to near-term acquisitions, although the longer-term is still positive, backed by growing demand for quality healthcare services and facilities. PREIT is currently trading at 5.3% yield. Maintain BUY with DDM-based TP of S$2.07.

曾淵滄專欄 2012 05 10: 選舉冇意外點解跌

選舉冇意外點解跌

恒指連跌5天,跌幅近1000點,跌幅之大有些意料之外,法國總統及希臘國會選舉結果與民意調查結果很接近,換言之,選舉結果沒有意外,既然選舉結果是意料中事,為甚麼選舉後全球股市暴跌?

法國變天問題不大
我估計是近期股市淡靜,失去方向,沒有甚麼有影響力的消息,於是借法國與希臘的選舉在股市興風作浪,金市、外滙及商品市場也同樣出現巨大的波動。

Saizen Real Estate Investment Trust 3Q FY2012 Results






发布44页判词驳回叶伟钢申请 高庭:新交所谴责权力可归为公共职能

发布44页判词驳回叶伟钢申请 高庭:新交所谴责权力可归为公共职能
 新加坡交易所(SGX)赢得它与天宇集团(China Sky Chemical Fibre)前独立董事叶伟钢的历史性官司。

  高庭法官菲立·皮莱(Philip Pillai)昨日发布长达44页的判词,驳回了叶伟钢的申请。

  法官判词作出结论说,新交所已完全和实质的让申请者(叶伟钢)能够获得一个公正的聆讯,通知他新交所打算谴责、他面对的个案、以及在2011年8月至12月给予很充分的机会说明。

  这场官司始于今年1月叶伟钢向高庭提出申请,希望取得庭令(quashing order)把新交所对他的公开谴责“置之不理”。新交所是在去年12月16日严厉的公开谴责天宇集团和所有董事抗命,不肯遵循新交所指示委任特别审计师调查有关交易。

油价高涨 经济动荡 新航全年净利重挫七成

新航今年1月至3月净亏3820万元,这是它有史以来第三次出现季度亏损。第一次是在2003年的沙斯时期,第二次是2009年美国银行雷曼兄弟倒闭之后。
吴慧敏 报道
nghm@sph.com.sg

新加坡航空公司(SIA)昨天意外地交出一片“满江红”的第四季业绩,不过全年仍保有盈利。

这家全球第二大航空公司说,燃油价格高涨和全球经济动荡,侵蚀了集团的盈利。集团在今年1月至3月之间净亏损了3820万元,这拖累全年净利猛挫69%,由10亿9200万元减少至3亿3600万元。

油价升高 运费走低 海皇首季亏损扩大25倍

海皇已是连续第五个季度出现亏损。不过,海皇轮船今年首季亏损还是比上一季的3亿2000万美元来得低。

韩宝镇 报道
hanpt@sph.com.sg

  受到集装运输的燃油价高涨和低运费率所影响,海皇轮船(NOL)今年第一季亏损2亿5400万美元(3亿1800万新元),同比跌幅高达2520%。

  不过,海皇轮船(简称海皇)今年第一季亏损还是比上一季的3亿2000万美元来得低。海皇已是连续第五个季度出现亏损,在上财年同期,海皇的季度亏损为近1000万美元。

继两月前收购Amobee后 新电信再购美移动广告公司

新加坡电信(SingTel)已收购美国加州硅谷的移动广告起步公司AdJitsu,是该公司两个月来第二次的收购行动,详细的收购条件和金额目前还未公布。

  新电信旗下移动广告部门Amobee表示,它已买下专门提供制作iPhone和iPads三维(3D)动画广告行动应用程式工具的新创公司AdJitsu。

  新电信今年3月刚以3亿2100万美元(4亿新元)收购Amobee,Amobee是一家总部设于加州红木城(Redwood City)的移动广告解决方案提供商,而Amobee此次收购的AdJitsu专攻移动设备上的三维广告。

凯德商用在马建商场

凯德商用产业(CapitaMalls Asia)已和马来西亚森达美地产(Sime Darby Property)签署了一项有条件协议,将成立一家合资公司,在马来西亚巴生谷建造一座购物商场。双方将各占合资公司的50%股份。

  该永久地契地段位于美拉华蒂花园(Taman Melawati),面积为24万2000平方英尺,合资公司将在该地段建造一家总出租面积约63万5000平方英尺的购物中心,预计在2016年竣工。

负面因素重重 海指跌至近三个月最低

希腊政治僵局拖累亚洲股市全面下跌。昨日海峡时报指数下挫1.06%,悬于2900点,这也是近三个月来的最低闭市水平。

  希腊国内政治势力的较量仍持续,上周末议会选举之后的混乱局面未见丝毫改善,致使该国很可能还要举行新的选举。政坛的动荡进一步推高希腊退出欧元区的可能性,同时加重了市场对欧债危机的忧虑。

  此外,评级机构穆迪投资者服务(Moody’s Investors Service)表示,本月起将降低全球100多家银行的信用评级,这可能提高相关银行的融资成本,并减少放贷,对于全球经济的增长前景来说无疑是雪上加霜。

Rising value of properties a real concern

The Star Online > Business
Thursday May 10, 2012
Rising value of properties a real concern

By DANIEL KHOO
danielkhoo@thestar.com.my

KUALA LUMPUR: The Government needs to address the issue of affordability of residential properties as persistently high prices have become an issue to many people.

“We have computed the affordability (issue). Prices have risen to a level that has created some concern. In fact the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in its Article 4 consultation report has mentioned that this is the main risk or vulnerability facing the Malaysian economy: overvalued house prices,” Ratings Agency Malaysia Holdings Bhd (RAM) chief economist Dr Yeah Kim Leng said.

胡立阳:做自己喜欢的事才是创富第一步

胡立阳:做自己喜欢的事才是创富第一步
时间:2012-05-07 07:58:55 来源:胡立阳博客 作者:胡立阳

胡立阳:大家一定都认为,要先学会投资理财才能开始赚大钱。其实,我必须说,找对工作,做自己喜欢的事,才是创造财富的第一步!

华尔街的工作,让我认识到各行各业的巨富,我注意到一个现象,那就是这些富豪的财富,最初并不是来自投资股票,而是由他们的工作或事业中赚来的。因此,大家千万不要本末倒置了。

“要如何赚到人生的第一桶金”也是过去许多媒体常来采访我的主题。坦白说,我当时根本没有去注意,也没有计划要如何赚到这第一桶金。

Sunway Berhad: Bags MYR1.2b MRT Contract (MIB)

Sunway Berhad
Hold (unchanged)
Share price: MYR2.37
Target price: MYR2.62 (unchanged)

A major boost to orderbook. Sunway’s latest MYR1.17b win for the KVMRT Sg Buloh-Kajang viaduct works will boost its outstanding order book by 41% to MYR4b, and enhance earnings visibility over the medium term. We maintain our earnings forecasts for now having imputed job win potential to the tune of MYR1.5b for this year. Our RNAV-based TP is unchanged at MYR2.62. Maintain HOLD.

谢国忠:香港房地产泡沫重现

谢国忠:香港房地产泡沫重现
时间:2012-05-03 08:27:16 来源:谢国忠博客 作者:谢国忠
谢国忠:香港没有从1998年的房地产业垮台和经济崩溃中吸取教训。相反,香港一直努力试图使泡沫重新膨胀起来。经过十几年不断地压缩供给,再加上美联储零利率政策的帮助,泡沫现在重现于市场中。这让香港付出了极大的代价。

香港经济正遭受痛苦的煎熬。从1997年到2011年,名义GDP每年增长2.6%,人均收入每年增长2%,平均工资每年增长差不多2%。但在同一时期,生活成本暴涨:石油价格上涨五倍,食品价格上涨两倍,而中国的劳动力成本上涨三倍。从这些数据中,可以很容易看出为什么香港人不高兴。

Cosco Corporation: Too many irons in the fire (CIMB)

Cosco Corporation
Current S$1.00
Target S$0.92
Too many irons in the fire

Cosco is feeling the pressure more than ever as all segments turned in weaker numbers. Execution is obviously still a problemas the group incurred provision for cost overrunsfor the eighth quarter in a row.

1Q12 net profit came in below at 19% of our FY12 and 20% of consensus (vs. 21% expected), due to higher-than-expected interest and expenses. We cut our FY12-14 EPS by 9-10% to incorporate the above. Maintain Underperform and target price (1.5x CY13 P/BV, 10% above its trough of 1.4x).

Hutchison Port Holdings Trust: Volume growth should pick up (DBSV)

Hutchison Port Holdings Trust
BUY US$0.755
Price Target : 12-Month US$ 0.85
Volume growth should pick up
• Results in line; Yantian Port volumes disappointing in 1Q12, but offset by better than expected HIT volumes
• FY12F dividend guidance stays at 6.6UScts; cash flows to be supported by deferring capex plans if needed
• Maintain BUY for yield in excess of 8.5%
• Catalysts expected from better y-o-y throughput data

FJ Benjamin: Achieves better margins; continues to expand (DMG)

FJ Benjamin
Price S$0.335
Previous S$0.41
Target S$0.41

FJB’s seasonally slower 3QFY12 recorded a 7.5% YoY growth in revenue to S$95.8m, while PATMI grew 7.7% YoY to S$3.5m. This was achieved amid the backdrop of a slower global economy. Gross margins improved (3QFY11: 43.3%; 2QFY12: 42.4%; 3QFY12: 45.6%), supported by the continued growth in consumer spending in Asia and its portfolio of established brands. Given the better-than-expected 3Q revenue, we have tweaked upwards our revenue estimates to S$394.2m (previously S$380.0m). However, as FJB continues on the expansion path (it intends to bring in more brands), operating expenses are expected to remain relatively high. Hence, we are keeping our PATMI estimates. With a slower economy, consumers are less likely to spend, but FJB’s portfolio of popular brands and its good relationship with the retailers would help it ride out the near term uncertainties. Maintain BUY with TP of S$0.41.

OKP Holdings: Disappointing earnings (OCBC)

OKP Holdings
Fair value S$0.53
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.02
versus: Current price S$0.59

DISAPPOINTING EARNINGS; DOWNGRADE TO HOLD
• 1Q12 PATMI plunged 42% YoY
• Slower revenue recognition, lower margins
• Management remains optimistic

OKP Holdings (OKP) reported that its 1Q12 revenue declined 24% YoY to S$25.0m and PATMI plunged 42% YoY to S$3.1m. In addition, OKP’s 1Q12 gross margin contracted by 5.7ppt to 21%. OKP’s 1Q12 revenue and PATMI have respectively only met 17% and 12% of consensus full-year estimates. But management believes outlook for the construction sector will remain healthy over the next twelve months but warned that OKP’s profit margins are likely to remain under pressure. With a lack of clarity in OKP’s ramping up of revenue recognition of projects and management’s warning on possible margin pressure, we reduce our FY12F revenue and PATMI estimates of OKP by 39% and 35% respectively. Consequently, we lower our fair value estimate of OKP from S$0.75/share to S$0.53/share and downgrade its rating to HOLD.

Pavilion REIT - Results in-line with expectations Buy

Price Target : 1.33
Last Price : 1.21

We re-affirm our BUY rating on Pavilion REIT (PavREIT) with an unchanged fair value at RM1.33/unit based on a 5% discount to our DCF value of RM1.40/unit.

- PavREIT's 1QFY12 reported net income of RM48mil is in line with our and street's estimate, making up 26% and 28%, respectively. This is 14% higher than management's forecast, which is mainly contributed from advertising income and income from turnover rent from Pavilion mall.

CapitaLand: 1QFY12 results - a non event (JPM)

CapitaLand Ltd
Price: S$2.94
Price Target: S$3.40

1QFY12 results - a non event
• 1Q12 results largely in line, but with exceptional items. PATMI excluding revaluations and impairments came in at S$107million. Operating profit came in at S$78million with S$29million portfolio gain recorded in 1Q12. The lower operating profit is a result of lower revenue recognition from the residential businesses across the region, especially in China. That said, 1Q has traditionally been a seasonally lower quarter due to revenue recognitions. NTA/share for the group stood at S$3.41 with gearing increasing marginally during the quarter to 36%.

StarHub Ltd: 1Q12 results slightly ahead

StarHub Ltd saw 1Q12 revenue climbed 5.8% YoY (but eased 3.5% QoQ) to S$590.9m, or just 2% shy of our forecast. Net profit jumped 27.0% YoY (down 4.6% QoQ) to S$88.3m; while the figure was nearly 13.2% ahead of our forecast, we note that the increase came mainly from the NBN roll-out - higher adoption grants and also higher amortised income. And as expected, StarHub has declared a quarterly dividend of S$0.05/share. For FY12, management has kept its previous guidance and this could disappoint the street as some expectations of a possible capital management, or a higher dividend payout, have been built in by the recent share price outperformance. As the numbers were mostly in line with our expectation, we are leaving our forecasts unchanged. We also note that the higher adoption grants and amortised income for the NBN roll-out are unlikely to be repeated in the subsequent quarters, or at least not in the same magnitude. Hence, we are also keeping our DCF-based fair value of S$3.10. Maintain HOLD.

Equity Correction Not Over Yet?


Roubini: Europe a 'Slow Motion Train Wreck'


Roubini: 'Perfect Storm' Could Hit US Next Year


SIA posts surprise Q4 loss

SIA posts surprise Q4 loss
Weak demand, high fuel prices cited
04:46 AM May 10, 2012
SINGAPORE - Turbulent times have hit national carrier Singapore Airlines (SIA), which reported yesterday an unexpected loss in its fiscal fourth quarter, hurt by weak travel demand and soaring jet fuel prices.

Net loss for the three months ended March was S$38.2 million, compared with a profit of S$171 million a year earlier, the airline said after trading hours.

It was SIA's first loss since the second quarter of its 2009-2010 financial year.

MRT Corp awards RM3.2b jobs to 4 firm

MRT Corp awards RM3.2b jobs to 4 firm
2012/05/10

KUALA LUMPUR: Mass Rapid Transit Corp (MRT Corp) has awarded RM3.22 billion worth of contracts to four companies to help build Sungai Buloh-Kajang (SBK) MRT line.

Syarikat Muhibbah Perniagaan & Pembinaan Sdn Bhd secured a RM1.09 billion job to build viaduct guideways and related works.

It covers from Sungai Buloh to Kota Damansara stations of the SBK alignment.

SIA Faces Competition in All Sectors


再颁32亿工程 双威MTD应声上扬

吉隆坡9日讯)捷运公司(MRTCorp)宣佈,颁发双溪毛糯─加影捷运路线工程中总值32.2亿令吉的4项配套,予睦兴旺工程(MUHIBAH,5703,主板建筑股)、双威(SUNWAY,5211,主板產业股)、MTD混凝土工程(MTDACPI,5924,主板建筑股)和TRC协作(TRC,5054,主板建筑股)的子公司。

这4项配套分別是V1、V4、V7等3项高架桥导轨工程,以及DPT1配套的维修站工程。其中,睦兴旺工程旗下的睦兴旺贸易和建筑私人有限公司,获得价值10亿9000万令吉的V1配套,该配套也是一项土著企业专属工程。

双威旗下双威建筑私人有限公司,则获得价值11亿7000万令吉的V4配套,而MTD混凝土工程旗下MTD建筑私人有限公司则获得4亿9998万令吉的V7配套。DPT1配套的维修站工程则由TRC协作旗下Trans Resources Corporation私人有限公司获得,价值4亿5898万令吉。

2012-0507-57金錢爆(超級月亮之野性呼喚)


SIAs-fullyear-net-profit-down-69


Wednesday, May 9, 2012

“Sell in May” or “Stay to play”? (DBSV)

“Sell in May” or “Stay to play”?
The phrase “Sell in May and go away!” grows in relevance during this time of the year. Proponents of this adage say that the period from November to April generates better return for investors compared to the period from May to October. This is attributed to factors such seasonality and the summer holiday lull that spans from late May till end August in the developed economies of US and Europe. In Singapore, there is the June school holiday period. Sceptics would of course, proclaim “Nah! Stay to play!”

雙威 TRC MTD混凝土 獲頒逾15億捷運工程

(吉隆坡9日訊)雙溪毛糯通往加影的捷運計劃新配套公佈,雙威集團(SUNWAY,5211,主要板房產)、TRC(TRC,5054,主要板建築)和MTD混凝土(MTDACPI,5924,主要板工業),以及另一家公司獲頒工程項目。

 捷運公司今日發布文告宣布,另有4項總值32億2000萬令吉的工程釋出,雙威集團子公司雙威建築獲得第4項高架橋建設工程,MTD混凝土子公司MTD建築獲得第7項高架橋工程。

 TRC子公司TRANS資源機構獲得第1項捷運站工程,另一家公司MUHIBBAH商業與建築,則獲得第一項高架橋工程(計劃僅限土著公司)。

Troubles at MAS worsen

Troubles at MAS worsen
In The Edge Financial Daily Today 2012
Written by Janice Melissa Thean
Wednesday, 09 May 2012 15:14

KUALA LUMPUR: The troubles at national air carrier Malaysian Airline System Bhd (MAS) are deepening. Skytrax, the world’s largest airline and airport reviewer, has placed the company’s vaunted five-star airline ranking on watch following consistently poor feedback from passengers

The downgrade on the much sought-after premier status, which is listed on Skytrax’s widely followed website, comes at a time when the airline’s future is becoming increasingly uncertain.

SIA posts unexpected 4Q loss on higher fuel

Singapore Airlines, the world's second largest carrier by market value, reported an unexpected loss for its fiscal fourth quarter, hurt by weak travel demand and soaring jet fuel prices.

The Singapore flag carrier reported a January-March net loss of $38.2 million, a swing from a net profit of $171 million a year ago. Analysts had expected a profit of $93.5 million for the quarter.

It was SIA's first loss since the second quarter of its 2009-2010 financial year.

CapitaMalls, Sime Darby plan $204m mall in Malaysian capital

The property arm of Malaysian Sime Darby Bhd said on Wednesday it is partnering with Singapore-based CapitaMalls Asia to build a shopping mall with a development cost around 500 million ringgit ($203.9 million) in Malaysia’s capital city.

The development will feature a shopping mall with a total net rent area of 635,000 square feet, situated in Kuala Lumpur, Sime Darby said. The project is due for completion in 2016.

Neptune Orient Lines Q1 net loss at $317.3m

Neptune Orient Lines reported its fifth consecutive quarterly loss on Wednesday as low freight rates and soaring fuel costs continued to hit the world’s seventh-largest container shipping firm.

NOL, around two-thirds owned by Singapore state investor Temasek Holdings, posted a net loss of US$253.6 million, widening from a loss of US$9.7 million a year earlier.

It warned its financial performance will remain weak if conditions for rates and fuel costs do not improve.

MIIF posts $21.3m in net income for 1Q

Macquarie International Infrastructure Fund said it achieved a net income on an adjusted basis (net income) of $21.3 million for the three months to 31 March 2012, up $13.7 million from the prior corresponding period.

Investment income of $23.7 million from Taiwan Broadband Communications (TBC) was significantly higher than the same period last year (2011: $9.2 million).

The higher income from TBC reflects the contribution from MIIF’s additional 27.5% interest in the business acquired last year. This was partially offset by higher management fees.

Pan-United’s 1Q earnings up 54% to $9.5m





OCBC's Menon Says Asia Ex-Japan `Leading the Pack'



Warren E. Buffett(沃伦•巴菲特)
Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful
别人贪婪时我恐惧, 别人恐惧时我贪婪
投资只需学好两门课: 一,是如何给企业估值,二,是如何看待股市波动
吉姆·罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)
“错过时机”胜于“搞错对象”:不会全军覆没!”
做自己熟悉的事,等到发现大好机会才投钱下去

乔治·索罗斯(George Soros)

“犯错误并没有什么好羞耻的,只有知错不改才是耻辱。”

如果操作过量,即使对市场判断正确,仍会一败涂地。

李驰(中国巴菲特)
高估期间, 卖对, 不卖也对, 买是错的。
低估期间, 买对, 不买也是对, 卖是错的。

Tan Teng Boo


There’s no such thing as defensive stocks.Every stock can be defensive depending on what price you pay for it and what value you get,
冷眼(冯时能)投资概念
“买股票就是买公司的股份,买股份就是与陌生人合股做生意”。
合股做生意,则公司股份的业绩高于一切,而股票的价值决定于盈利。
价值是本,价格是末,故公司比股市重要百倍。
曹仁超-香港股神/港股明灯
1.有智慧,不如趁势
2.止损不止盈
成功者所以成功,是因为不怕失败!失败者所以失败,是失败后不再尝试!
曾淵滄-散户明灯
每逢灾难就是机会,而是在灾难发生时贱价买股票,然后放在一边,耐性地等灾难结束
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