Saturday, April 21, 2012

乔治·索罗斯管理日志》没有只涨不跌

乔治·索罗斯管理日志》连载:没有只涨不跌
2012年04月20日 13:02
来源:ChinaVenture 作者:卞君君

乔治·索罗斯是华尔街最著名的对冲基金“量子基金”的创始人、赫赫有名的“金融大鳄”、以特有的“反身性”哲学理论融入到投资理念中去,创造了金融界的神话。本书是世界著名企业家管理日志系列中的一本,以管理日志的形式,对索罗斯的成长经历、独特个性、充满神秘色彩的投资理念、以及他对世界与人类极端的看法与价值观,都作了深入探讨和剖析,从而展现出一个矛盾而又睿智的金融巨人的一生。

“我生来一贫如洗,但绝不愿死时仍贫困潦倒。”——乔治·索罗斯

谢国忠:房地产泡沫疗法

谢国忠:房地产泡沫疗法
时间:2012-04-19 08:46:32 来源:谢国忠博客 作者:谢国忠
谢国忠:中国房地产市场的牛市论者,寄希望于限购令取消。于是,投机客和开发商继续坐守大量囤积的房产,等待市场复苏。他们的假设前提是:目前的房产熊市,完全是政府造成的。这种观点可谓大谬。

今天的熊市,就是泡沫破裂的结果。中国房地产被估值过高,这是不容否认的。现在投机客和开发商手中掌握的存量房和空置房,已经超过了国内生产总值的100%。这样的局面,有助于中国经济实现软着陆,但却会让市场调整的过程变得更加漫长。

Cosco Corporation: Testing waters (CIMB)

Cosco Corporation
Current S$1.09
Target S$0.92
Testing waters

Cosco adds twoorders of tender barge to its offshore order book. However,we arenot thrilled as bullet-payment termsplus speculative-buildingmay add to risksof patchy execution.

MaintainUnderperform and target price (1.5x CY13 P/BV, 10% above its trough of 1.4x). No change to our EPS as the order falls within our US$2bn target for 2012. We continue to see execution and cost-overrunrisksforthe stock.

AIMS AMP Reit posts flat DPU of 2.7 cents for Q4

Published April 21, 2012
AIMS AMP Reit posts flat DPU of 2.7 cents for Q4
Income available for distribution rises 6.1% to $11.98m
Byjasmine ng print |email this article AIMS AMP Capital Industrial Reit yesterday posted a flat distribution per unit (DPU) of 2.7 cents for the fourth quarter ended March, unchanged from a year ago.

This is despite a 6.1 per cent year-on-year increase in income available for distribution in Q4 to $11.98 million.

First Reit posts 1.93¢ DPU in Q1, up 22%

Published April 21, 2012
First Reit posts 1.93¢ DPU in Q1, up 22%
Byjoshua tan print |email this article FIRST Real Estate Investment Trust (First Reit) announced a distribution per unit (DPU) of 1.93 cents for the first quarter ended March 31, up 22 per cent from 1.58 cents a year ago.

Distributable income for the healthcare Reit rose 22.7 per cent in the same period to $12.1 million.

CCT DPU 3.3% up at 1.90¢ in Q1

Published April 21, 2012
CCT DPU 3.3% up at 1.90¢ in Q1
ByMindy Tan print |email this article CAPITACOMMERCIAL Trust (CCT) yesterday posted a distribution per unit (DPU) of 1.90 cents for the first quarter ended March, a 3.3 per cent year-on- year increase on the 1.84 cents a year earlier.

Distributable income rose 3.4 per cent to $53.9 million, helped by an increase in interest income and a decline in trust and interest expenses.

2012年巴菲特致股东的信全文(中英文对照)

To the Shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway Inc.:
致伯克希尔•哈撒韦公司股东:
The per-share book value of both our Class A and Class B stock increased by 4.6% in 2011. Over the last 47 years (that is, since present management took over), book value has grown from $19 to $99,860, a rate of 19.8% compounded annually.*
2011年,我们公司的A股和B股的每股账面净值都增长了4.6%。过去47年期间(也就是说从现在的管理层接管公司开始至今),每股账面净值从19美元增长到了99,860美元,每年复合增长率为19.8%。*

投资比亚迪,巴菲特是否失算了?

比亚迪传统汽油动力汽车的销量大幅下滑,可能损害其电动汽车和其它“绿色”技术的宏大扩张计划,给巴菲特在该公司的投资带来更多质疑。不过巴郡的投资者称,问题的解决之道在于巴菲特的核心技巧:低价收购企业。

  巴菲特在比亚迪投资的价值曾经大幅飙升,但过去一年出现暴跌。昨日,比亚迪H股继续下跌8.282%,创出2009年4月以来的最低收盘价至14.840港元,较2009年10月创下的最高收盘价每股85.50港元跌了逾80%。

Maybank Top Pick for Dividends


Overlooked Construction Stocks: Muhibbah and Favelle Favco


传马航业务重组再调整

传马航业务重组再调整
Created 04/20/2012 - 19:05

(八打灵再也20日讯)消息透露,马航(MAS,3786,主板贸服股)将重新设置目前的业务改革计划。

《星报》报导引述消息说,鉴于各种原因和情况,马航高层有必要优先处理重新聘雇与重组员工,并重新设置业务计划。

“8个月已过去,可是公司的改变似乎还很模糊。于是重新设置的需要就变得很关键,因为目前的计划出现障碍。”

K-REIT: Good start for the year, but near term catalysts limited (DBSV)

K-REIT
HOLD S$0.94
Price Target : 12-Month S$ 1.12

Good start for the year, but near term catalysts limited
Quick Comment
• Revenue is in line with expectations. K-reit reported a 91% y-o-y (+60.1% q-o-q) rise in NPI to S$28.5m supported by a 96% y-oy (92% q-o-q) increase in revenue to S$36.6m. The increase was largely boosted by an enlarged portfolio, including the additional four floors of strata office space at Prudential Tower, a 50% interest in 8 Chifley Square and an c.87.5% interest in OFC.

Frasers Commercial Trust: Positive surprise on DPU (OCBC)

Frasers Commercial Trust
Fair value S$0.97
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.07
versus: Current price S$0.88
12m total return forecast 19%
POSITIVE SURPRISE ON DPU
• Better results from lower interest costs
• Stable operational performance
• Expecting positive income growth

曾渊沧:内房股股价已远低于其资产账面净值

曾渊沧:内房股股价已远低于其资产账面净值
2012年04月20日09:59
腾讯财经[微博]曾渊沧
民企出事是正常情况,而且出问题的民企数量并不多,市场上大量的传闻只是股民在吓自己。

股市阴晴不定,许多股民无所适从,不过我们详细分析,这些消息不过是在炒冷饭,冷饭不断炒来炒去变不出新花样,对市场的影响力也不断下降。

Global oil-and-gas stocks: Demand and E&P capex to fuel rise of upstream O&G stocks, says Barclays Asia

Scott Darling of Barclays Asia Capital has lived in several countries throughout his career, covering oil and gas companies from Latin America, Europe, Russia to the Middle East and now Singapore. The constant relocation may be tiring, but it has enabled Darling to detect an increase in the need for oil in these fastgrowing emerging markets just as demand from mature economies such as the US begins to wane.

2012年福布斯全球企业2000强 -前100强

012年福布斯全球企业2000强
排名企业名称国家销售额(亿美元)利润(亿美元)资产(亿美元)市值(亿美元)
1埃克森美孚/Exxon Mobil美国433541133114074
2摩根大通/JPMorgan Chase美国1108190226581701
3通用电气/General Electric美国147314271722137
4皇家荷兰壳牌集团/Royal Dutch Shell荷兰470230934052276
5中国工商银行/ICBC中国826251203912374
6汇丰控股/HSBC Holdings英国1020162255001643
7中国石油/PetroChina中国310120630472947
8伯克希尔哈撒韦/Berkshire Hathaway美国143710339262022
9美国富国银行集团/Wells Fargo美国876159131391787
10巴西国家石油公司/Petrobras-Petróleo Brasil

Cache Logistics Trust: Positive start to FY12 (OCBC)

Cache Logistics Trust’s (CACHE) 1Q12 DPU of 2.086 S cents was in line with our expectations, forming 25.0% of our full-year estimate. As at 31 Mar, CACHE’s portfolio properties remained 100% occupied with a combination of triple-net master leases and multi-tenanted lease structures. Management reiterated that there will be no lease renewal in 2012. This provides a significant amount of earnings visibility and stability. Following the recent private placement, we note that CACHE’s aggregate leverage improved from 29.6% as at 31 Dec 2011 to 27.7%. This gives the REIT an estimated S$110m of additional debt headroom for future investment opportunities. Going forward, we believe CACHE will actively seek growth avenues to improve its DPU payout now that it is well capitalized. In the meantime, we understand that the acquisition of Pan Asia Logistics Centre at 21 Changi North Way is due to complete by end Apr. This is likely to provide marginal lift to its income. We make no changes to our forecasts as results were in line. Maintain BUY and S$1.11 fair value.

Sabana Shari’ah Compliant REIT: 1QFY12 Results

Sabana Shari’ah Compliant REIT
Target Price (SGD) 1.050
- Previous Target Price (SGD) 1.050
Closing Price (SGD) 0.975
Expected Capital Gains (%) 7.7%
Expected Dividend Yield (%) 9.3%
Expected Total Return (%) 17.0%

Sabana REIT is a Singapore-based REIT with a mandate to invest in income-producing industrial real estate and real estate-related assets in Singapore and Asia with compliance to Shari’ah investment principles.

巴菲特最推崇的十本书之五:约翰·博格《长赢投资》

巴菲特最推崇的十本书之五:约翰·博格《长赢投资》
刘建位 2011-04-08 08:58:25

随时随地看新闻核心提示:如何成为一名好的投资者?巴菲特的回答是:阅读。如何成为像巴菲特一样的投资者?巴菲特研究者刘建位的回答是:读巴菲特读过的书。今后一段时间,刘建位将在21世纪网专栏中推出系列文章,告诉你巴菲特推崇哪些投资书籍,并从哪些书中得到启示。此篇为该系列的第八篇:巴菲特最推崇的十本书之五:《长赢投资》。
巴菲特推荐次数最多的作者,无疑是约翰·博格(John C. Bogle,国内有多种译法:博格尔,鲍格尔,伯格,柏格,本文选用博格)。约翰·博格先后出版8本书,巴菲特推荐了其中3本。巴菲特不但推荐博格的书,还推荐博格创办的先锋基金旗下的基金产品。

有戒律的巴菲特大力推荐博格的指数基金

如果你知道巴菲特是一个说话多么谨慎的人,你就会明白这有多么不寻常。所有人都知道,巴菲特有个戒律,从不推荐任何股票和任何基金。据说他睡觉时都会用毛巾捂住嘴。

他一天到晚想的都是股票,晚上睡觉做梦想的也是股票。他担心半夜说梦话,让他老婆听见。万一他老婆不小心和别人一说,那么全世界的人就都知道了,就会抢着买他想买的股票,股价就会狂涨,而他就没有机会低价买入了。

你可以查查,今年80岁的巴菲特,从1956年5月开始独立管理投资到现在,从来没有在任何场合公开推荐过任何一只股票。

唯一的例外是指数基金。1993年到2008年,巴菲特竟然8次公开推荐指数基金。其中两次巴菲特明确推荐博格创立的先锋集团公司旗下的指数基金。

巴菲特在2003年致股东的信中说:“那些成本费率非常低的指数基金(比如先锋基金公司旗下的指数基金)在产品设计上是非常适合投资者的,我认为,对于大多数想要投资股票的人来说,成本费率低的指数基金是最理想的选择。”

2008年5月3日,在伯克希尔股东大会上,蒂莫西·费里斯(Tim Ferriss)提问:“巴菲特先生,芒格先生,如果你们只有30来岁,没有什么其他经济来源,只能靠一份全日制的工作来谋生,根本无法每天进行投资,假设你们都已经有些储蓄足够维持你们一年半的生活开支,那么你们攒的第一个100万美元将会如何投资?请告诉我们具体投资的资产种类和配置比例。”

巴菲特哈哈一笑回答:“我会把所有的钱都投资到一只成本费率低的追踪标准普尔500指数的指数基金上,然后继续努力工作,把所有的钱都投资到像先锋500指数基金那样的成本费率低的指数基金上。”

在股票投资上所有投资者最推崇巴菲特,而在基金投资上巴菲特最推崇约翰·博格。巴菲特极力推荐博格的书,还极力推荐博格的先锋集团公司的基金产品。能够得到巴菲特如此推荐的,只有博格一人。

我回顾历史资料发现,巴菲特过去16年8次推荐指数基金,在此基础上,我写了两本书《巴菲特教你买基金》和《巴菲特基金投资6招》,老实说,很多地方借鉴、参考和引用了博格先生8本投资著作的很多精华之处。我从博格先生的著作中受益很多。写这篇文章,一是向大师致敬,二是向大师致谢。

那么,下面我们来看看关于约翰·博格的两个问题:

1、约翰·博格到底是一个什么样的人,能够得到巴菲特如此推崇?

我个人认为博格是基金行业的格雷厄姆加巴菲特。

2、约翰·博格的书有什么特点,会让巴菲特一再公开推荐?

我个人认为巴菲特推荐的博格的两本著作《Common Sense on Mutual Funds》(中译本为“共同基金必胜法则”)和《The Little Book of Common Sense Investing》,在基金投资界的地位相当于巴菲特的导师格雷厄姆的《证券分析》和《聪明的投资者》在证券投资界的地位。

约翰·博格和他的指数基金

约翰·C·博格(John C. Bogle),世界上最大的不收费基金家族、世界第一大基金管理公司先锋集团(Vanguard Group)创始人,博格金融市场研究中心的总裁。1974年,他创立先锋投资公司集团,并担任董事长,直到1996年。此后他一直担任公司的主席到2000年。1999年,《财富》杂志评选他为20世纪四位“投资巨人”之一;2004年,美国《时代》杂志把他列入“世界上最有影响力的100人”之一;金融机构投资者协会授予伯格“终身成就奖”。2006年博格与巴菲特、格雷厄姆、索罗斯等人被《纽约时报》评为全球十大顶尖基金经理人,排名第7。

在个人财富排名上,博格远远无法与巴菲特等人相比,但是在基金行业,博格的成就完全不亚于巴菲特及其导师格雷厄姆。我个人认为,博格是基金业中的格雷厄姆加巴菲特。

我这样评价博格,有两个理由。

第一个理由是,博格创立的先锋集团资产管理规模在全球基金行业排名第一,在资产规模排名上堪比基金行业的巴菲特。

巴菲特控股的伯克希尔公司2010年底净资产规模高达1573亿美元,超过1万亿人民币,比财富杂志按照销售收入排名的2010年世界500强企业前三位沃尔玛、荷兰皇家壳牌石油公司、埃克森美孚石油公司的净资产都要大,全球排名第一。

先锋集团(The Vanguard Group, Inc.)是美国规模最大的基金公司,也是全球资产规模最大的基金公司,截止2011年1月,管理资产规模高达1.6万亿美元,是中国所有基金公司包括QDII基金在内的国内基金公司公募基金资产净值25191.36亿元人民币的4倍以上。

巴菲特控股的伯克希尔公司净资产规模在全球企业排名第一,博格创立的先锋集团管理资产规模在全球基金公司中排名第一。

更有意思的是,巴菲特成功的秘诀只有一个,长期投资具有持续竞争优势的超级明星公司,博格的成功秘诀也只有一个:指数基金。

博格尔的指数基金投资理念和巴菲特相似而且同样非常简单。巴菲特以另一种方式诠释了这个道理:“对于投资者的整体利益而言,收益将随着交易量的增加而减少。这也许应该成为牛顿三大运动定律之后的第四大定律……对于这些投资从业者来说,赚取佣金的动力总会促使他们乐此不疲地去说服客户:“不要坐在那傻等,想办法做点什么。”但对于客户来说,总体财富的增长却源自截然相反的。另一个座右铭:“什么也不要做,坐在那里等着就足够了。”因为试图击败市场是不可能的,而这是唯一可以让你避免陷入其中的办法。当所有的交易都直接违背客户的整体利益时,那革命必将到来……成功的投资就是心平气和地拥有着企业,而美国乃至全世界企业收益和股利的增长,便是我们取之不尽的财富之源。投资活动越频繁,财务中介成本和交税就越多,财产所有者的整体净资产就越少。而投资者的总体成本越低,他们所能实现的收益也就越高。因此,要在长期投资中成为胜者,就必须最大程度地限制财务中介成本,让这些成本仅仅局限于绝对必要的层次上。这就是常识所带给我们的告诫,也是指数化投资的真正含义。” (摘自博格著《长赢投资》)

在简单的原则这一点上博格尔和巴菲特有相同之处,虽然都蕴含最高的智慧,却都非常简单易懂,他们都厌恶华尔街玩家时髦花哨骗取投资人钱财的行径,都强调投资者是上帝,都宁愿不要华尔街的掌声也孤独地坚持忠于自己的投资理念。

排名相似,都是第一,成功秘诀也相似,都是只有一个,都非常简单,都坚持自己的理念始终不变,都做到行业第一,所以我从公司规模实力上把博格称为基金业的巴菲特,也就是说博格是基金行业的第一人。

第二个理由是巴菲特的导师格雷厄姆作为证券分析之父和价值投资之父改变了整个股票投资行业,而博格作为指数基金之父改变了整个基金投资行业,所以我从思想影响力上把博格称为基金行业的格雷厄姆。

巴菲特的成功,主要是实践他的导师创立的价值投资思想。而博格的成功,主要是实践他自己创立的指数投资思想。

博格最喜欢讲的故事是:

在古代波斯,一位富裕的农夫离开家乡,为了寻求更多的财富。他耗尽了自己的一生去寻找神秘的钻石宝矿,却毫无收获。最后,由于年龄和多年挫折的原因,他投海自尽了。死时身无分文,更远离家乡。与此同时他的房屋新主人,仔细考察了他后院的大片土地,发现土地旁的小溪中有一些亮晶晶的东西,在阳光下闪耀。原来是一颗颗大钻石。在这位离家万里寻找钻石宝矿的农夫家的后院,就是神秘的戈尔康达钻石矿。

罗素·康维尔(Russell Conwell)于1884年创立了坦普尔大学。这个故事启发他创作了后来在世界各地讲了6000多场的经典演讲:几英亩的钻石。这个故事的寓意是:你的钻石并在遥远的大山或大海中,如果你挖掘的话,就会发现,钻石就在你自己家的后院。

博格早在1951年的大学毕业论文中就发现:共同基金超越市场平均水平的优势是根本不可能的。他进入基金管理行业工作25年之后,越来越坚信::基金管理人辛苦找寻的股市“钻石”,并不是难以把握的海外市场,也不是秘而不宣的投资秘籍,而恰恰就是人人皆知的市场本身。

1975年,博格离开惠灵顿(Wellington)资产管理公司之后,将自己在大学研究的理念付诸实践,创建了一家将投资者利益放在第一位的独立的基金公司,这就是现在众所周知的先锋集团。在1975年底之前,先锋集团推出了全球第一只指数基金,先锋500指数基金。

和主动型股票基金完全不同,这只指数基金不需要任何投资管理,只是被动地复制标准普尔500股票指数。

1977年2月7日经过多次努力之后,博格领导先锋集团推出了革命性的完全按照基金资产净值出售免除任何销售费用的基金销售体系。1981年美国证监会批准了先锋集团的计划。

经历了10年的冷落,到80年代指数基金才逐渐被人认可,走上良性循环的轨道。美国股市从1987年开始的长期大牛市,让指数基金的优势得到淋漓尽致的体现。

上世纪九十年代以后,指数基金才真正获得巨大发展。1994年至1996年是指数基金取得成功的三年。1994年,标准普尔500指数增长了1.3%,超过了市场上78%的股票基金的表现;1995年,标准普尔500指数取得了37%的增长率,超过了市场上85%的股票基金的表现;1996年,标准普尔500指数增长了23%,又一次超过了市场上75%的股票基金的表现。三年加在一起,市场上91%的股票基金的收益增长率低于标准普尔500指数增长率,指数基金的概念开始在投资者的心中树立了良好的形象,指数化投资策略的优势开始显现出来。

据统计,美国机构投资者持有的指数基金资产在1980年为100亿美元,到了1996年底达到了10000亿美元,个人投资者持有的指数基金资产也从1990年的40亿增加到了580亿美元。

经过20多年的快速发展,美国的指数基金已发展成一个规模庞大、种类丰富的基金业分支。美国2007年指数基金数量331只,资产7843亿美元,占共同基金资产比例10.3%。

直到1997年初,指数基金才开始出现在《纽约时报》、《华尔街时报》的主要版面。几乎在同时,《时代》和《新闻周刊》也开始报导丰富多彩的指数基金故事。《货币》杂志1995年更是用封面报道鼓吹:“不可思议的胜利:指数基金在今天应成为众多投资组合的核心。”

媒体的宣传使指数基金成为众人追捧的明星,博格尔兴奋不已:“1998年估计有500亿美元的现金流入量,是整个股权基金现金流的25%。指数基金已经成为整个共同基金行业中增长最快的部分。”

指数基金从最初只是学术界研究成果的养在深闺人不识,再到博格1975年推出第一只指数基金被业内人士讥为“博格做的荒唐事”,然后到90年代末的辉煌成就发展壮大,博格梦想成真是对他一生奋斗的最大奖赏。

你打开先锋集团公司网站,就会看到公司的标志。

你会发现标志中公司名字Vanguard之前是一艘船,船上有三支桅杆直立。当时公司旗下管理11只基金,资产净值为18亿美元。约翰·博格尔之所以把公司命名为先锋(Vanguard),是源于18世纪末海军史上的一次伟大战役———纳尔逊海战。在那场经典之战中,英国的纳尔逊将军率领他的先锋号,一夜之间歼灭了当时意图征服世界的拿破仑·波拿巴的主力舰队。如今,约翰·博格尔和他的先锋集团,经过30多年的努力,博格真的使先锋集团成为基金行业的旗舰,用指数基金的被动投资卓越业绩战胜了原来不可一世的股票基金的主动投资,让基金行业开始普遍接受指数投资理念,也把先锋集团做成全球最大的基金公司,截止到2011年1月管理资产规模高达1.6万亿美元,其中1万亿美元以上是指数基金。


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 【21世纪网】
Publish date:08/04/11

Interra Resources: Minor oil and gas player sees change in fortunes as Myanmar re-engages the world

The Myanmar gold rush continued in the past week, with trading interest rotating into Interra Resources, a minor upstream oil and gas player with two oil concessions in the country. The stock has rocketed on massive trading volume recently, and is now up more than 350% since the beginning of the year.

Tan Han Meng, an analyst at local brokerage firm DMG & Partners, said in an April 4 report that Interra Resources is one of three locally-listed companies that could offer investors exposure to Myanmar’s growth, fuelled by its economic and political reforms and reengagement with the world. The other two companies DMG & Partners cited were Yoma Strategic Holdings, which has substantial real estate interests in Myan mar, and Super Group, an instant beverage maker that has operated in the country for years.

Sunita Sue Leng: When ‘buyer beware’ has its limits

THERE WAS A time when it was hard to walk into a bank without having the teller try to sell you an investment product. That kind of soliciting has been banned now, following the painful saga of the Lehman Brothers minibonds during the global financial crisis. The collapse of the US investment bank saw the unravelling of structured notes linked to the bank, hitting thousands of retail investors in Singapore. They ended up losing all or the bulk of the money they had put into Lehman-related products. The financial institutions that distributed these products were accused of having inappropriately sold these relatively high-risk investments to retail customers, some of whom were old and not so well educated.

Bob Doll: Correction will be shallow and brief

IN THE WEEK ended April 6, stocks sagged again in the face of renewed concerns about the European debt crisis and indications that the US Federal Reserve would be less likely to engage in additional quantitative easing measures. For the week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 1.2% to 13,060, the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index declined 0.7% to 1,398 and the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 0.4% to 3,080.

Following the release of a disappointing US labour market report for March, data showed that payrolls grew by a lessthan- expected 120,000, although the unemployment rate did fall to 8.2%, its lowest level in more than three years. Many markets were closed on Good Friday.

Daryl Guppy: Shanghai Index testing consolidation

THE FIRST QUARTER in the Shanghai Index saw a 16% rise, followed by a sudden fall of 9.5% from the high of 2,478. The index closed up more than 5% for the quarter. In one sense, the recent fall was not a surprise because the initial trend rise developed into a parabolic trend.

These trends collapse quickly and often have retracements in the order of 50% to 100% or more. The Shanghai Index retraced a little more than 100% of the parabolic trend rise. In another sense, the market fall was a little surprising because it did not reflect the changing composition and performance of the Chinese economy.

助你成为百万富翁的10句箴言

2012年 04月 16日 07:52
助你成为百万富翁的10句箴言

没错,机会在敲响美国投资者的大门。前不久,芝加哥调研公司斯佩特兰集团(Spectrem Group)发布了最新的美国百万富翁年度报告。该报告显示,去年美国新增了约20万百万富翁,百万富翁的总数达到了860万。

虽然这个数字仍低于2006年高峰时的950万,但伴随道指在第一季度反弹994点(8.1%),这个消息依然令人鼓舞。这两则消息显然都是预示复苏的积极迹象。

中国银行业危机隐现

高盛减持工商银行股份的消息引发热议,分析师表示,高盛当初在工行首次公开售股(IPO)前进行的这笔投资在六年后获得了可观回报。

  但依我之见,他们并没有切中要点,高盛的此次转让并非是对投资满意的信号,更多传递的却是他们的担忧,因中国的银行濒临崩溃边缘,今后两年他们的坏账可能膨胀,股价也会随之滑落。

沉默不置评不表示默认? 天宇案双方代表律师激烈交锋

沉默不置评并不表示默认?这个“沉默”昨日在高庭聆讯新加坡交易所(SGX)对叶伟钢案件的第三天,爆发双方代表律师一场较激烈的交锋。

  叶伟钢是新交所挂牌公司天宇集团(China Sky Chemical Fibre)前独立董事,因认为新交所在没有给予他合理的沟通机会之前便对他作出公开谴责,所以到高庭申请庭令。

  争执点始于代表新交所的高级律师文达星昨日开始叙述整个天宇集团事件来龙去脉时,使用了从未公开的信息——天宇集团另一前独立董事余光华在宣誓书中透露,公司委任此案申请者(叶伟钢)为独立董事,是要应付新交所针对福建购地发展项目的查询。

巴菲特披露患癌 动机耐人寻味

沃伦·巴菲特(Warren Buffett)一贯态度随和,却也不是喜欢与外界分享私事的那种人。正因为这一点,他在4月17日公开宣布患有早期前列腺癌的动机不禁耐人寻味。

  毕竟,如这位柏克夏公司(Berkshire Hathaway)主席兼首席执行长所言,医生已经做出诊断,病情不但不会危及生命,甚至对身体状况都不会有大的影响。实际上,巴菲特在声明中强调:“我感觉好极了,就跟我平时身体极佳时一样,我的能量水平是100%。”

  巴菲特说的不无道理,根据《美国医学会杂志》,到80岁的时候,约80%男人的前列腺都会有一些癌细胞。如果巴菲特跟他这个年纪的大多数人一样,他带着前列腺癌去世的可能性,比死于前列腺癌的可能性更大。

总理启动面簿 议员学者“担忧”

李显龙总理昨天所启动的官方面簿页面,大受公众欢迎的同时,也有议员和学者提出一些隐忧。

新闻、通讯及艺术政府国会委员会副主席马炎庆相信,总理的面簿页面除了提供与公众直接联系的桥梁,也让人看到总理鲜为人知的一面。

这位以面簿接近选民的“过来人”说,面簿与电邮的最大不同,在于大家都看得到面簿上的留言,也就容易引发不同看法甚至是极端的言论。他认为应正面看待这点,把它视为了解不同看法的平台,让大家通过交换意见“自我增值”。

海指失守3000点

美国最新经济数据逊于预期,市场担心其复苏势头停滞,再加上没完没了的欧债问题不见起色,促使投资者在周末前套利离场,海峡时报指数因而退低13.73点,失守3000点重要心理关卡。

  最新数据显示,截至4月14日当周的美国首次申请失业救济人数高于预期,就业市场复苏势头可能暂时中断。同时,费城联邦储备银行周四发布报告,4月份该行辖区内制造业商业景气指数降幅超过预期。

  另外,美国房地产经纪商协会指出,经季节因素调整后,3月份成屋签约销量连续第二个月下降,同样低于经济学家的预期。因这些数据都令人失望,美国隔夜股市随之下跌。

Bold move pays off for MSC

The Star Online > Business
Saturday April 21, 2012
Bold move pays off for MSC

By HANIM ADNAN
nem@thestar.com.my

BACK in 2010, Malaysia Smelting Corp Bhd (MSC) took a bold decision to switch from its diversified business model to focus on core businesses it has known for the past 100 years, tin smelting and mining.

Its efforts paid off when MSC Group became the world’s second largest tin company with refined tin production at 46,599 tonnes last year, right after China-based Yunnan Tin at 56,174 tonnes.

Every reason to feel upbeat about the property market

The Star Online > Business
Saturday April 21, 2012
Every reason to feel upbeat about the property market

BRICKS AND MORTAR By TEH LIP KIM

REPORTS released in the last two to three weeks on the state of the property sector in Malaysia and other countries in this region should offer some comfort to both builders and investors.

The Malaysian Property Market Report 2011 that is issued by the Valuation and Property Services Department of the Finance Ministry has painted a fairly positive picture.

Investors turn to defensive stocks in lacklustre market

The Star Online > Business
Saturday April 21, 2012
Investors turn to defensive stocks in lacklustre market

By YVONNE TAN
yvonne@thestar.com.my

PETALING JAYA: Consumer stocks have made their way to the gainers list suggesting that investors are turning defensive in the current market.

In yesterday’s trade, stocks such as British American Tobacco (M) Bhd, Dutch Lady Milk Industries Bhd, Aeon Credit Service (M) Bhd and Panasonic Manufacturing (M) Bhd were among the top gainers in a lacklustre market.

CapitaMall Trust: 1Q12: Strong leasing boosts return on investments (UOBKH)

CapitaMall Trust
Share Price S$1.84
Target Price S$2.10
Upside +14.1%
(Previous TP S$2.05)
1Q12: Strong leasing boosts return on investments

Results
• Results in line with expectations. CapitaMall Trust (CMT) reported a 1Q12 distributable income of S$76.6m (+4.6% yoy, +2.0% qoq) and a DPU of 2.30 S cents (+0.4% yoy, unchanged qoq). The 1Q12 DPU is in line with our expectations, accounting for 24% of our full year DPU estimate of 9.60 S cents in 2012. Distribution excludes S$5.4m (equivalent to 0.16 S cents of DPU) retained for future distribution.

Mapletree Logistics Trust: Busy quarter (CIMB)

Mapletree Logistics Trust
Current S$0.97
Target S$1.00
Busy quarter

5QFY12 was boosted by positive rental reversions and completed acquisitions. Resilience should stemfrom Asian logisticsdemand, its long WALEand geographical diversification.

5Q12/FY12 DPU meets our estimate and consensus at 20%/99% of FY12. MLT has changed its year-end to Mar from Dec. We tweak our DPU by 1-6% for FY12-13 factoring the change in year-end but keep our DDM target (discount rate: 9.0%) pending its briefing. Maintain Outperform.

QE3有可能出台吗?曾渊沧博士觉得很有可能

QE3有可能出台吗?曾渊沧博士觉得很有可能
文: 骆伟嵩 2012年04月17日 展望
亚洲股市大师曾渊沧博士最近在《股市资讯》于DBS讲堂举办的讲座中,展望了全球市场接下来的动态。这场非常成功的讲座让我们从中得到很多关于股市的宝贵知识。曾博士的确是一个又懂经济又懂股市的权威。

大多数人目前很想提出的问题是,“QE3(第三轮量化宽松政策)有可能出台吗?”

就连华尔街的投资家都在猜测。道琼斯工商指数最近从其4月初的13,297点高位滑落至昨天(4月16日)的12,921点闭市价。跌幅是因为联邦储备局主席伯南克说我们暂时不会印钞票。从他发言那天开始,美国股市就开始下滑。

油价高企继续令新航的盈利摇晃

油价高企继续令新航的盈利摇晃
文: 张玉明 (译:麦美莹) 2012年04月18日 企业摘要
新航(Singapore Airlines)公布,2012年3月份的载客率(passenger load factor)提高6.3个百分点至79.5%,而载货率(cargo load factor)及胜安航空(SilkAir)的载客率则分别提高了1个百分点。

公司在一份文告中表示:“西南太平洋及欧洲地区的升幅最大,因为复活节假期出外旅游的人数增加。日本航线的年比增幅也很大,因为日本在2011年3月发生大地震。”

IMF指亚洲经济将软着陆

IMF指亚洲经济将软着陆
文: 道琼斯通讯社 (译:杨佳文) 2012年04月18日 道琼斯通讯社
国际货币基金组织(IMF)在其于星期二发布的半年报告中表示,亚洲经济将软着陆,因为大部分国家的决策者仍有办法应对出口需求持续疲弱的问题。

但基于西方经济体放缓的情况应会持续下去,亚洲国家必须继续采取措施来刺激内需。

IMF在其4月份的世界经济展望报告中说:“由于外部展望脆弱,亚洲国家必须在未来几年设法刺激内需,以平衡经济增长。”

新加坡甘氏家族计划把酒店资产上市

新加坡甘氏家族计划把酒店资产上市
文: 道琼斯通讯社 (译:陈锦如) 2012年04月17日 道琼斯通讯社
由于有迹象显示本地股市正在复苏,新加坡的甘氏家族计划通过首次公开售股(IPO)让其酒店产业在本地上市。

M&L酒店服务信托(M&L Hospitality Trust)是一个包括房地产投资信托和商业信托的集团,它在4月12日(星期四)向新加坡金管局提呈招股书,准备进行可能是今年本地第二个大规模的IPO计划。有迹象显示越来越多的企业有兴趣通过本地资本市场筹资,因此公司计划在本地上市,如果成功,相信其他公司也可能趁机上市。

上述招股书并未提及公司将发行的证券数量,或提供参考价格范围。但据知情人士在4月12日表示,由商人甘烈明领导的甘氏家族希望通过IPO筹得4亿2,600万元至4亿6,300万元的资金,这不包括一项超额配售的选择权。

K-REIT Asia : 1QFY12 results review - stable and in-line (JPM)

K-REIT Asia
1QFY12 results review - stable and in-line
Price: S$0.94
Price Target: S$0.95
K-REIT reported 1Q FY12 DPU of S$0.0190, annualizing to an 8.1% yield and in line with both J.P. Morgan and consensus estimates. The overall occupancy rate increased by 2ppt to 96%, with take-ups seen in both Ocean Financial Centre (OFC) and Prudential Tower. We reiterate our Neutral rating with a Dec-12 price target of S$0.95.

Banks under investor fire over excessive pay

Banks under investor fire over excessive pay
Updated 12:27 PM Apr 20, 2012
LONDON - Unhappy investors warned banks to brace for a sell-off in their shares unless there is real action to stamp out excessive pay and reverse shrinking rewards for shareholders.

After years watching boardroom bonus and salary hikes outpace growth in their returns, investors say they are growing tired of unanswered calls for change, with some tempted to skip another fruitless war of words to vote with their feet instead.

Citi's Strategy for China


Housing Demand in China to Sustain


AAPL, BAC, BBY & CHK: Buy, Sell or Hold?


Friday, April 20, 2012

曾渊沧博士股市资讯专栏 13.04.12

曾渊沧博士专栏
文: 曾渊沧博士 2012年04月13日 曾渊沧博士专栏
过去几天,美股暴升暴跌,伯南克出来讲一句话,市场即加以解读,乐观地炒QE3概念。于是道指狂升,美国联储局上次会议记录公开后,市场又一次加以解读,一下子又觉得QE3遥不可及,美股又大跌。推出QE3能有助于加快复苏吗?我相信伯南克自己也没有答案。如果他认为QE3可以加快经济复苏,改善失业率,他早就推出QE3了。目前美股正处于高位,不是靠憧憬QE3,而是美国上市公司的业绩不错,是业绩在支撑股价,是低利率在支撑股价。

股市刚从欧债危机的恐怖中复苏,暂时缺乏重大的、可以大幅左右股市的消息。但是,华尔街不能停顿,于是市场就不断地人为地制造一些消息。美国失业率公布,失业率明明是有改善,由8.3%降至8.2%,但是,市场内的大户为了制造淡风,就硬说是非农业职位的增长低过市场预期。真是莫名其妙,什么是市场预期?说穿了就是大户造淡的手法,谁能为市场预期下个指标?从阴谋论的角度来看,这只是华尔街大户在为QE3造势。

颜子伟: 企业盈利可以令牛市免受熊市袭击吗?

企业盈利可以令牛市免受熊市袭击吗?
文: 颜子伟 (译:麦美莹) 2012年04月13日 展望
当联邦储备局主席伯南克及中国总理温家宝作出对金融市场不利的发言时,究竟他们心里是怎样想的呢?我们可以大胆地假设,这两个人的言论对目前市场出现的调整,是有一定的影响力,当然其他对股市不利的因素令情况变得更糟。

当总理温家宝表示,中国的国内生产总值(GDP)增长将从8%减低至7.5%的时候,无疑是向股市先来一拳。之后,当他谈到中国的楼价离开合理水平仍然很远时,就是再来一个上钩拳。虽然他的言论对股市带来的影响不是很严重,但却令股市在1月及2月大幅走高后,弥漫着恐慌的情绪。

Pavilion Reit - Exceptional FY13F, with upcoming Fashion Avenue and tenancy renewal

Pavilion Reit - Exceptional FY13F, with upcoming Fashion Avenue and tenancy renewal
Price Target : 1.33
Last Price : 1.15

We upgrade our rating on Pavilion REIT (PavREIT) from aHOLD to a BUY and raise our fair value to RM1.33/unit (vs. RM1.15/unit previously)based on a 5% discount to our DCF value of RM1.40/unit.

- Following a meeting with the management, we raise our earningsestimates for FY12F and FY13F by 1% and 2%, respectively, translating into amarginally higher DPU of 6.2 sen and 7.3 sen, underpinned by organic growth andacquisition. We assume a 99% payout ratio.

HAI-O:The worst may be over

HAI-O update
(HAIO MK, Maintain NEUTRAL, FV RM2.03, Last price RM2.18)

We recently visited Hai-O, which seems to be slowlyregaining its earnings momentum. Its strategy of focusing on repeat consumerproducts instead of bigticket items is working as the MLM division is showingimprovement. We believe Hai-O would be able to deliver decent results given: i)the recent collaboration with KAEAM Corp on the global distributorship ofbamboo salt, and ii) its bird's nest export business. Maintain NEUTRAL, with FVof RM2.03.

First REIT’s 1Q 2012 distributable income up 22.7% to S$12.1 million

First REIT’s 1Q 2012 distributable income up 22.7% to S$12.1 million
1Q 2012 DPU of 1.93 Singapore cents per unit
Annualised DPU of 7.76 cents translates to distribution yield of 8.43%
Conducting feasibility studies on a number of properties belonging to sponsor Lippo Karawaci in Indonesia

全球食用油儲備35年新低‧棕油價料重演2008年大漲潮

全球食用油儲備35年新低‧棕油價料重演2008年大漲潮
Created 04/20/2012 - 17:45

(吉隆坡20日訊)由於全球食用油的儲備收緊至35年以來的新低水平,棕油業也有望重演2008年大漲潮,分析員估計大馬、印尼及新加坡的種植股將受激勵攀升。

次季將攀上高點

益資利研究預期棕油價強勢表現將延續至次季,至下半年才稍微回調;聯昌研究也預測棕油價可在次季站上高位。

1,300 Capesize vessels needed: Moody's report

Published April 20, 2012
1,300 Capesize vessels needed: Moody's report

[LONDON] The dry-bulk shipping industry may need to expand its fleet by the equivalent of more than 1,300 Capesize vessels over the coming decade to handle an increase in cargoes predicted by Moody's Investors Service.

Dry-bulk trade will rise 3 per cent a year on average until 2021 to almost 4.7 billion tonnes, an increase of 1.2 billion tonnes, the credit-rating company said on Wednesday. Stronger meat consumption in emerging nations will spur demand for grains used to feed cattle, and raw materials will travel over longer distances, it said in a report.

Move for S'pore-JB rapid transit link makes headway

Published April 20, 2012
Move for S'pore-JB rapid transit link makes headway
KL, S'pore to name foreign consultant to study project, decide best options

[KUALA LUMPUR] The Malaysia and Singapore governments will appoint a foreign consultant by early next month to undertake a detailed study on the proposed Rapid Transit System (RTS) linking Johor Baru and the island republic.

The Business Times newspaper in Malaysia reported that the study, which will take six to 12 months to complete, will determine the best options for the RTS development and project cost.

Citigroup investing heavily in Asia ops

Published April 20, 2012
Citigroup investing heavily in Asia ops
Sophistication of region's consumers drives development for rest of world
ByConrad Tan

CITIGROUP is investing heavily in its operations in Asia as it bets that the region will be a major driver of growth in its business for years to come.

The sophistication of consumers in the region has allowed the bank to develop and fine-tune new banking products and services here, then deploy them to the rest of the world, said Stephen Bird, Citi's Asia-Pacific chief executive, in an interview this week.

MapletreeLog's quarterly DPU rises 9.7%

Published April 20, 2012
MapletreeLog's quarterly DPU rises 9.7%
Bylim wei sheng
MAPLETREE Logistics Trust (MLT) delivered a distribution per unit (DPU) of 1.7 cents for the three months ended March 31, 2012, a 9.7 per cent increase from 1.55 cents in the same period last year.

Gross revenue for the quarter was $71.2 million, a 14.4 per cent rise from the year-ago period, while net property income rose 12.3 per cent to $61.4 million.

AIMS AMP beefs up asset quality for better returns

Published April 20, 2012
AIMS AMP beefs up asset quality for better returns
Over 20% of Reit's portfolio undergoing enhancements
Bymichelle tan

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial Reit intends to "sweat" its assets over the next few years by raising the overall quality of its portfolio to provide better returns for its shareholders, said Andrew Bird, director of AMP Capital's property and management business.

With more than 20 per cent of its current portfolio in Singapore undergoing asset enhancements, the industrial real estate investment trust (Reit) intends to focus on improving the quality of its overall assets this year, instead of acquiring new properties.

TigerAirways : What are the sticking points in SEAir deal?

Tiger Airways eyes bigger pie of SEAir

[18/4/2012] – Tiger Airways has signed a revised term sheet to purchase a 40% stake in South East Asian Airlines (SEAIR) from existing foreign investors for US$7 mln.

This is the maximum level foreigners can own in a Philippine transportation firm.

A-REIT: Did it deliberately miss DPU threshold?

FY12 NPI up 8.5%, DPU up 2.5%

[18/4/2012] – Ascendas REIT expects to maintain a stable performance in FY13.

It has leases worth about 13.8% of its revenue due for renewal in FY13.

The Trust feels the weighted average lease to expiry (WALE) of about 4 years is good enough to provide sustainable and predictable earnings.

CapitaLand: Recovering China volumes (CIMB)

CapitaLand
Current S$2.93
Target S$3.61
Recovering China volumes

CapLand’s valuations are attractive (against CMA’s run-up) and it is a proxy for recovering volumes in China. As physical prices find a bottom, opportunistic acquisitions are a high likelihood. Catalysts to come from higher China volumes and/or accretive acquisitions.

CapitaMalls Asia: Inflexion priced in (CIMB)

CapitaMalls Asia
Current S$1.58
Target S$1.41
Inflexion priced in

CMA’s upbeat view on 2012 has bolstered its share price, up 39%YTD. Translating such optimism into numbers would be needed to sustain such valuations, along with accretive divestments. We see limited near-term catalysts and recommend a switch to CapLand.

SIA: Is the worst over?

Update on March operating results

[18/4/2012] – DMG OSK Research says SIA’s FY12 operating statistics turned out positive as SIA's March passenger traffic jumped 11.8% YoY, outpacing its capacity growth of 2.9% as load factor strengthened by 6.3%-points to 79.5%.

The broker points to a recovery in travel demand, judging from the strong load factor across the board, including Europe, which stood at a remarkable 81.1%.

Keppel Land: Chinese residential market still difficult (OCBC)

Keppel Land (KPLD) reported 1Q12 PATMI of S$141.9m, up 70% YoY, mostly due to a bumper contribution from Reflections at Keppel after the handover of DPS units. 1Q12 topline was S$170m, down 52% YoY as property trading revenues fell. We judge 1Q12 PATMI (making up 38% of our annual forecast) to be mostly within expectations, given “lumpier” earnings post adoption of INT FRS 115. Grade A office rents fell 3.6% to S$10.60 in 1Q12. Given residual macro risks, we believe it is too early to call a bottom for the domestic office sector - a key driver for KPLD’s share price. This risk is balanced out, however, by potential RNAV accretion given ample capital (16% net gearing) and sufficiently attractive valuations. Maintain HOLD with an unchanged fair value estimate of S$3.32 (35% discount to RNAV).

AIA Group: Focusing on where it matters (CIMB)

AIA Group
Current HK$28.00
Target HK$34.03
Focusing on where it matters

With its eyeonagencyproductivity and product margins, AIAmanaged to pull off its highest-ever first quarter VONB. Margins continuedto expand, crushing detractors’views of peaking margins.There is still room for growth, given that initiatives are in infancy.

Sabana Shari’ah Compliant REIT : 1Q12: Signs new master tenant (UOBKH)

Sabana Shari’ah Compliant REIT
Share Price S$0.975
Target Price S$0.950
Downside -2.6%
(Previous TP S$0.900)
1Q12: Signs new master tenant

Results
• Results in line with expectations. Sabana Shari’ah Compliant REIT (Sabana) reported a 1Q12 distributable income of S$14.5m or a DPU of 2.26 S cents (+3.2% yoy, +4.1% qoq). The 1Q12 DPU of 2.26 S cents is in line with our expectations, accounting for 24% of our 2012 DPU estimate of 9.4 S cents.

Zhulian : 1QFY12 Results Review (ZJ)

Zhulian Corporation Berhad
Price : RM1.96
• Zhulian turned in a strong 1QFY12 performance with net profit rising 29.2% y-o-y to RM28.4 mln. In fact, this is the strongest 1Q results yet since its listing in 2007, and second strongest after the RM28.8 mln net profit registered in the preceding quarter (4QFY11). The results were broadly within expectations, having reach 27% of our FY12 net profit estimate of RM102.8 mln.

CDL Hospitality Trusts: Better RevPAR outlook (OCBC)

We are raising our 2012 RevPAR growth estimates from 5.5% to 7.5% for CDLHT’s Singapore hotels on the basis of strong Singapore hotel figures year to date and continued positive outlook. A senior executive of Millennium & Copthorne (M&C) International expects room rates at M&C’s five Singapore hotels to grow 5% YoY from ~S$219 in 2011, while occupancies could climb by 2-3 ppt from 87%. RevPAR for these hotels have already increased 10% in the first two months of this year. These five hotels are on master leases whereby CDLHT receives rent in the form of 20-30% of the hotel revenue and 20% of the hotel gross operating profit, subject to minimum fixed rents. The hotels constituted 60.5% of CDLHT’s 2011 gross revenue. We maintain our BUY rating on CDLHT and raise our fair value estimate to S$2.04 (from S$2.00 previously).

CapitaMalls Malaysia Trust: East Coast Mall delivers the goods in its 1st full quarter (CIMB)

CapitaMalls Malaysia Trust
Current RM1.38
Target RM1.65
East Coast Mall delivers the goods in its 1st full quarter

At 25% of our full-year estimate, CMMT’s 1Q12 results were within expectations, helped by the first full quarter of contribution from East Coast Mall, asset enhancement initiatives for Gurney Plaza and higher rental rates for renewed leases.

Hi-P: Apple Inc’s share price remains under pressure (Limtan)

 Hi-P (92.5 cents, down 1): Apple Inc’s share price remains under pressure, with latest negative news coming from (a) Verison Wireless reporting a drop in sales of iPhone 4S; (b) Qualcomm experiencing shortage of components to be included in the new iPhone, which has led an analyst to expect launch of iPhone 5 in October instead of August. We have noticed a close correlation between price movement of Hi-P and Apple’s, at least since the launch of the new iPad a month ago. At US$587.44 yesterday, Apple’s share price is down 8.8% from the all time high of US$644 reached on Apr 10th, when Hi-P was at 96 cents. Hi-P’s recent high of $1.03 was reached on March 20th, on news of buoyant sales of the new iPad.

Frasers Commercial Trust: re-rating catalysts around the Corner (UOBKH)

Frasers Commercial Trust
2QFY12: Results exceed expectation, re-rating catalysts around the Corner
Price/Target S$0.875/S$0.94

Results
• Maintain BUY with target price of S$0.94 (previously S$0.93).

• Results exceed expectation. Frasers Commercial Trust (FCOT) reported 2QFY12 DPU of 1.74 S cents, up 8% yoy. 1HFY12 DPU of 3.24 S cents made up 50.6% of our fullyear DPU forecast, which was better than expected. We expect DPU to be back-end loaded due to: a) interest savings from debt refinancing, and b) additional contribution from Caroline Chisholm Centre (CCC) in 2HFY12. In Feb 12, FCOT announced the acquisition of the remaining 50% stake in CCC, which is expected to be completed no later than 15 Apr 12.

Mapletree Logistics Trust : 5Q12: Delivering the goods (UOBKH)

Mapletree Logistics Trust
Share Price S$0.970
Target Price S$1.10
Upside +13.4%
(Previous TP S$1.05)

5Q12: Delivering the goods

Results
• Results in line with expectations. Mapletree Logistics Trust (MLT) reported 5QFY12 distributable income of S$41.3m (+10.1% yoy, unchanged qoq) and DPU of 1.70 cents (+9.7% yoy, unchanged qoq). Total DPU for 15MFY12 was 8.24 cents (+7.3% yoy), in line with our expectation, accounting for 99% of our estimate of 8.3 cents.

曾淵滄專欄 2012 04 20:領匯要着手改形象

領匯要着手改形象

滙控( 005)推出 20億元人民幣的債券於倫敦出售,息率 3厘,獲得熱烈的反應,可見香港並非唯一的人民幣岸外中心,倫敦傳統上就是全球的外滙交易中心,新加坡也很努力地打造自己成為亞洲的外滙交易中心,香港在外滙交易上長期地遠遠落後於新加坡。

今日香港這個金融中心是靠大量的 H股、紅籌股建立起來的,想當年港交所( 388)初上市時,上市價每股 3.88元,今日何以可以超越 100元,就是因為有大量 H股、紅籌股來香港上市。

Yangzijiang Shipbuilding: Share price offers value now (CIMB)

Yangzijiang Shipbuilding
Current S$1.23
Target S$1.43
Share price offers value now

YZJ’s share price has dropped by about 10% since its FY11 results announcement, presenting opportunitiesto accumulate. Shipbuilding profits could continue to be strong in FY12, underpinned by the execution of more pre-crisis orders.

新交所的决定是否可受司法检讨?

文达星在天宇案提问:新交所的决定是否可受司法检讨?

新加坡交易所(SGX)的决定,可以受司法检讨吗?

  这是德尊律师事务所(Drew & Napier)的高级律师文达星昨日代表新交所,在高庭第二天聆讯新交所与叶伟钢案件时,提出的两个问题之一。

  司法检讨是对政府机构(government body)的程序。文达星认为,新交所对于发行者(挂牌公司)和(挂牌公司的)董事并不行使政府或法定权力,而新交所与董事的关系是契约关系(contractual)。

凯诗物流信托可派发收入同比提高7.6%

凯诗物流信托(Cache Logistics Trust)今年第一季可派发收入同比提高7.6%至1335万元,每单位可派发收入也增加6.9%至2.09分。

  截至今年3月底第一季,凯诗物流信托净房地产收入同比上扬11.6%至1609万元,可派发收入提高至1335万元,每单位可派发收入为2.09分,年率化每股可派发收入(annualised DPU)8.39分,若以周三1.0元闭市价来计算,年率化派息率(annualised distribution yield)为8.4%,比去年同期高出6%。

  负责管理该信托的ARA-CWT信托管理(凯诗)总裁瑟夫(Daniel Cerf)指出,每单位可派发收入的增加是受现有物业的额外租金收入以及去年完成收购项目的营收推动。截至3月底,信托总资产值约9亿1400万元,负债对资产比率降低至27.7%。

股市交易气氛回暖

海峡时报指数持续上扬,昨日再微涨7.63点,股市交易气氛也稍见回暖,成交量小幅攀高,结束了本周连续三日大幅下滑之势。

  区域股市起落参半,大多在狭窄的范围内波动。唯有香港恒生指数一枝独秀,大幅上扬1%,是本月最好表现。

  这主要是因中国央行暗示将继续下调存款准备金率,市场预期中国大陆可能准备放松货币政策以推动经济增长。港股的冲劲也刺激海指追随走高,闭市收于3008.21点,上涨0.25%,略低于盘中最高点3010.85点。

Cosco Corporation : Why pay more? (CIMB)

Cosco Corporation
Current S$1.11
Target S$0.92
Why pay more?

Although COS has clinched about US$635m of orders YTD, we are reluctant to turn bullish on the stock as valuation remains stretchedand execution is questionable.

Premature to gauge cost of high-speed KL-S'pore rail link

The Star Online > Business
Friday April 20, 2012
Premature to gauge cost of high-speed KL-S'pore rail link

By SHARIDAN M. ALI
sharidan@thestar.com.my

PETALING JAYA: It is premature to gauge the cost of the proposed high-speed rail (HSR) linking Kuala Lumpur and Singapore at this point of time, said Land Public Transport Commission (SPAD) chief executive officer Mohd Nur Ismal Mohamed Kamal.

He said this when asked to comment on a news report yesterday quoting a source saying that the cost of the proposed HSR that has yet to get the green light from the Government would be between RM20bil and RM30bil.

MAS needs to re-engage with its employees

The Star Online > Business
Friday April 20, 2012
MAS needs to re-engage with its employees

By B.K. SIDHU
bksidhu@thestar.com.my

PETALING JAYA: Malaysia Airlines (MAS) is said to have gone back to the drawing board to re-set its business plan, four months after it unveiled its new business plan.

Those in the know claimed that the thrust forward was for the team to “re-engage and re-group the employees, re-boot and re-set the business plan because of several reasons and circumstances.”

Office REITs: Picking a bottom (CIMB)

Office REITs: Picking a bottom
We believe that the office sector is approaching the end of a de-rating cycle. Leasing momentum appears to be picking up, while threats of asset devaluations have subsided. With the stocks trading at 0.6-0.8xP/BV, we think risk-reward favours a positioning for a bottom.

We are Overweight on office S-REITs, tweak DPUs and up our DDM-based target prices on lower risk premiums and discount rates. We upgrade Suntec REIT to Outperform from Trading Buy while keeping other recommendations unchanged. Our top office picks are CCT and Suntec REIT.

Capitacommercial Trust: Picking a bottom (CIMB)

Capitacommercial Trust
Current S$1.24
Target S$1.40
Picking a bottom

We believe the office sector is approaching the end of its de-rating cycle. Leasing is picking up. There could be an earlier bottoming of rentals and a potential rental review of master leases for the hotels in Raffles City.

We keep our DPU estimates but raise DDM target price on a lower discount rate of 8.1% (from 8.8%). Maintain Outperform on a favourable risk-reward. CCT remains our top pick for the sector.

Frasers Commercial Trust: Closer to catalysts (CIMB)

Frasers Commercial Trust
Current S$0.88
Target S$0.96
Closer to catalysts

With the start of discussions on early refinancing of its expensive SGD loan and lapsing of CSC master lease in Mar, FCOT is a step closer to realising its catalysts. Trading at forward yields of 7-8%, we see room for further yield compression as management continues to deliver.

We keep DPU estimates but raise our DDM target price on a lower discount rate of 9.4% from 10.0% previously. Maintain Outperform. We see catalysts from refinancing savings and market confidence in the current management’s ability to deliver.

K-REIT Asia: Positioning for a bottom (CIMB)

K-REIT Asia
Current S$1.00
Target S$1.11
Positioning for a bottom

K-REIT braved headwinds tolease out more than 50,000 sf at Ocean Financial Tower and Prudential Tower in 1Q12. Backed by attractive yields of 8% and improving office indicators, we think its risk-reward now favours a positioning for a bottom.

We keep our DPUs and DDM-based target price (discount rate: 8.2%). Maintain Outperform on its favourable risk-reward. We see catalysts from improved take-up and rents at OFC.

Suntec REIT: Favourable risk-reward (CIMB)

Suntec REIT
Current S$1.26
Target S$1.45
Favourable risk-reward

Trading at 0.6x P/BV and with limited downside, we think that Suntec REIT is due for a bounce. Lease expiries are limited at 10% by NLA while positive rental reversions are likely for Suntec City offices given low expiring rents locked in in 2009.

We adjust our DPUs for AEI at Suntec City Mall but raise DDM target price on a lower discount rate of 8.1% (from 9.8%). We upgrade the stock to Outperform from Trading Buy as we see limited downside from current levels.

CapitaMall Trust: 1Q12 DPU in line with expectations (DMG)

CapitaMall Trust: 1Q12 Results Review
(BUY, S$1.835, TP S$2.03)
1Q12 DPU in line with expectations. CapitaMall Trust (CMT) reported 1Q12 DPU of 2.30S¢ (+0.4% YoY), equivalent to 22.7% of our FY12 DPU estimate. Revenue remained relatively flat (+0.8% YoY) while net property income rose 2.5% YoY mainly due to a drop in operating expenses (-2.9% YoY). In the subsequent quarters, we expect CMT to register stronger numbers on the back of 1) contributions from the newly opened JCube 2) new contributions from the AEIs at Iluma and Clarke Quay which are scheduled to be completed in 2Q and 3Q respectively and 3) resilient rental rates particularly for malls in the suburban. Given its strong prospect together with its defensive play (76% CMT’s revenue contributed from suburban malls), we maintain our BUY call on CMT with an unchanged DDM based (COE: 8.0%, terminal growth: 2.0%) TP of S$2.03. With CMT currently trading at 4.0% spread vs the historical mean of 3%, our TP represents a spread of 3.4% posting a potential upside of 10.6%

K-REIT Asia : Strong demand for quality Grade A offices lifts portfolio occupancy (CS)

K-REIT Asia
Maintain OUTPERFORM
Price (16 Apr 12 , S$) 0.94
TP (prev. TP S$) 1.17 (1.16)
Est. pot. % chg. to TP 24
52-wk range (S$) 1.26 - 0.80
1Q12 beats expectations: Strong demand for quality Grade A offices lifts portfolio occupancy

● 1Q12 DPU of S¢1.90 was above ours’ and street’s expectations, driven by a full-quarter contribution from OFC, lower interest cost and improved occupancies at Pru Tower (demand from financial services, consultants) and OFC (energy, commodity, resource).

投機過度終成泡沫 黃金或下探700美元

(紐約19日訊)黃金過去10年表現十分標青,是很好的投資產品,為此有專家認為,黃金將成為泡沫,不但每安士跌破1000美元(約3068令吉),甚至會來到700美元(約2147令吉)的水平。

 過去10年來看,黃金從每安士低于300美元(約920令吉),升至每安士將近1900美元(約5828令吉),最近又回到1650美元(約5061令吉)左右。

 對于多數人,黃金近來的跌勢只是短暫回跌,然后便將昂首走向2000美元(約6135令吉)關卡。

Why Equities Look Attractive: Barclays' Kantor


Private home sales to remain robust

Private home sales to remain robust
by Colin Tan 04:45 AM Apr 20, 2012
The scorching pace of new private home sales continued unabated for the second consecutive month in March, when developers sold a total of 2,393 units, down marginally from February's 2,417.

Sales have not only returned to the levels before the additional buyer's stamp duty (ABSD) was announced last December, as one analyst put it. Instead, it would be more accurate to say they have risen several notches higher - in my own estimate, 20 to 25 per cent more than last year's levels.

Wilmar, Perennial chiefs in venture

Wilmar, Perennial chiefs in venture
04:45 AM Apr 20, 2012
SINGAPORE - The chief executives of commodity trader Wilmar International and Perennial Real Estate are leading a group of investors in setting up a property joint venture with a target capital base of S$500 million.

Wilmar CEO Kuok Khoon Hong will hold a 49.5-per-cent stake in the joint venture - named Perennial Real Estate Holdings, while Perennial Real Estate CEO Pua Seck Guan will take up a 20-per-cent interest.

MAS will not comment on sabotage speculation

MAS will not comment on sabotage speculation
19 April 2012

KUALA LUMPUR -- Malaysia Airlines (MAS) has asked all parties to exercise caution and refrain from using speculative opinions to comment on Monday's incident as it interferes with investigation processes and causes unnecessary alarm among stakeholders.

The national carrier was referring to a local print media report today stating that investigations on the technical glitch involving flight MH002 on that day "should not rule out sabotage as a likely cause".

Thursday, April 19, 2012

Property: Follow the masses (Hwang)

Property

Follow the masses
• Slower sales on weaker sentiment and tighter lending
• But demand for landed properties and small condos in matured areas and affordable housing still robust
• Prefer mass housing developers (SP Setia) and companies with REIT potential (IGB, KLCC Property)

索罗斯再为欧洲敲警钟:市场抄底还是逃顶

索罗斯再为欧洲敲警钟:市场抄底还是逃顶
2012年04月17日 04:23
来源:每日经济新闻 作者:杨可瞻

当乔治·索罗斯出面为欧洲敲警钟时,你最好摸摸自己的钱包,是否少了什么东西。去年,当索罗斯警告欧元区有分崩离析风险时,这位鳄鱼却悄悄买入曼氏遗留的20亿欧元国债,至今赚得盆满钵满。如今,他再次警告欧债危机进入更高阶段,市场反一脸狐疑:西班牙国债尽管已突破6%的警戒线,但背后还有欧洲央行。索老这次卖的是什么药?

Offshore & Marine : Who is who in the region (cimb)





Source/Extract/Excerpts/来源/转贴/摘录: CIMB-Research,
Publish date: 18/04/12

KL-S’pore high speed rail project enters new phase of study

KL-S’pore high speed rail project enters new phase of study
In The Edge Financial Daily Today 2012
Written by Sharon Tan
Thursday, 19 April 2012 15:16

KUALA LUMPUR: The Kuala Lumpur-Singapore high speed rail (HSR) project is in its Phase 1 (B) where detailed studies are made on its economic impact, alignment and engineering works.

Land Public Transport Commission (SPAD) CEO Mohd Nur Kamal said in a media briefing yesterday that Phase 1 (A) covered very cursory high impact studies which touched on subjects such as economic impact and ridership.

RM1m floor price for foreigners will dent market

RM1m floor price for foreigners will dent market
In The Edge Financial Daily Today 2012
Written by Sheikh Al-Zaquan
Thursday, 19 April 2012 15:11


KUALA LUMPUR: The government’s proposal to double the floor price of residential properties for foreign buyers from RM500,000 to RM1 million will be a discouraging factor, said Datuk Abdul Rahim Abdul Rahman, founder and executive chairman of Rahim & Co Chartered Surveyors Sdn Bhd.

“This is a quandary because we want foreign direct investment (FDI), which is why we have schemes (such as the Malaysia My Second Home Programme) to allow foreigners to come and live and invest here. The proposed  RM1 million floor price will reduce the number of foreigners who will buy our homes,” said Rahim in a press conference on the sidelines of 22nd National Real Estate Convention yesterday.

Affordable housing underserved

Affordable housing underserved
In The Edge Financial Daily Today 2012
Written by Sheikh Al-Zaquan
Thursday, 19 April 2012 15:10


KUALA LUMPUR: The government needs to address the imbalances in the local housing market, as more developers gravitate towards the more profitable luxury segment.

RAM Consultancy Services Sdn Bhd chief economist Dr Yeah Kim Leng said the lure of higher gains in the luxury segment were the main reason for the shortage in the affordable housing segment, which covers properties priced at below RM150,000.

China to boost liquidity as economy slows

China to boost liquidity as economy slows
Posted: 19 April 2012 1412 hrs

SHANGHAI: China will ease monetary policy and boost liquidity in the financial system with a series of measures, state media cited a central bank official as saying, in a bid to avoid a sharp economic slowdown.

The official Xinhua news agency quoted an unnamed official at the People's Bank of China as saying it planned to "steadily" introduce the measures, including cutting the amount of cash lenders must keep in reserve.

股友追捧 交投炽热 龙筹股旋风浮现

股友追捧 交投炽热 龙筹股旋风浮现
Created 04/19/2012 - 19:11

(吉隆坡19日讯)多只中国“龙筹股”周四获投资者热捧,交投异常炽热,更进入热门榜前列,反映出新一轮投资主题,或会掀起一股龙筹股旋风。

最近的股市一直由小型股主导,交投炽热的热门股都集中在这些低价股,今日的热门榜同样展现出小型股当道的趋势,不过,却出现更多中国龙筹股影子。

中國醞釀進一步寬鬆?人行將降存準率

中國醞釀進一步寬鬆?人行將降存準率
Created 04/19/2012 - 19:10

根據《新華社》報導,中國人民銀行矢言將透過調降銀行存款準備金率等工具,適時釋放流動性,確保金融體系的流動性。

根據《新華社》專訪未具名人行官員表示,當局將根據外資流入及融資需求等情況,適時採取目標流動性管理行動。

報導中表示,選項包括透過附賣回協議操作和調降銀行存款準備金率等方式。

曾文秀“概念股”狂奔引關注‧4股佔馬股交投42%

曾文秀“概念股”狂奔引關注‧4股佔馬股交投42%
Created 04/19/2012 - 08:08

(吉隆坡18日訊)大馬股市今日在區域同儕騰漲下雖然無法成功突破1600點大關,惟低價股卻在炒風熾熱下繼續爆量,特別是拿督曾文秀“概念股”,更連奪5大熱門股其中4城,令市場置疑監管當局早前的“溫和提醒”似乎也阻擋不了此波炒風。

曾文秀自昨日買進ARIANTEC環球(AGLOBAL,0020,創業板科技組)的5.1%股權,崛起為大股東後,帶動該股今日繼續狂奔,而與曾文秀相關的其他股項亦伺機而動,價量齊揚,導致一度沉寂的炒風連升數級。

潔蒂:房地產業無泡沫‧首季經濟成長向好

潔蒂:房地產業無泡沫‧首季經濟成長向好
Created 04/19/2012 - 17:44

(吉隆坡19日訊)國家銀行總裁丹斯里潔蒂說,根據所獲資訊顯示,我國產業並沒有出現全面泡沫化現象,只是在若干地區出現產業價格狂飆情況。

一些地區房價狂飆

她表示,即便是在個別地區出現產業價格狂飆,國行迄今所公佈的措施,足以管控房價飆漲情況。

NOL raises $400m in 5-year bonds

Published April 19, 2012
NOL raises $400m in 5-year bonds
Proceeds to fund expansion of logistics business
BySiow Li Sen

NEPTUNE Orient Lines yesterday raised $400 million by selling straightforward five-year bonds to fund the expansion of its logistics business.

The senior, unsecured and unrated bonds will pay 4.25 per cent coupon twice a year.

CapitaMall's Q1 DPU inches up on flat revenue

Published April 19, 2012
CapitaMall's Q1 DPU inches up on flat revenue
Byjasmine ng

CAPITAMALL Trust (CMT), which counts Raffles City, Bugis Junction and new mall JCube, among others in its portfolio, saw its distribution per unit (DPU) in the first quarter edge up to 2.30 cents from 2.29 cents the year before.

This works out to an annualised distribution yield of 5.04 per cent, based on CMT's closing price of $1.835 per unit on April 17.

PCRT in deal to set up $500m joint investment vehicle

Published April 19, 2012
PCRT in deal to set up $500m joint investment vehicle
ByLee U-wen

[SINGAPORE] Perennial China Retail Trust (PCRT) has entered into an agreement to set up a joint investment vehicle with a target capital size of $500 million.

Called Perennial Real Estate Holdings, it will be 49.5 per cent owned by one of mainboard-listed PCRT's independent directors, Wilmar International chairman Kuok Khoon Hong.

Cambridge Industrial Trust: High stable yields (DBSV)

Cambridge Industrial Trust
BUY S$0.55
Price Target : 12-Month S$ 0.58
High stable yields

Highlights
• DPU of 1.171 Scts in line. Both topline and net property income grew 8% each to S$20.9m and S$18.0m respectively. Growth was driven by contribution from properties acquired (where CREIT acquired close to 5 properties since a year ago) coupled with annual rental hikes for certain properties in its portfolio. Average occupancy remained high at 98.6%, while arrears remained low at 0.1% (vs 0.6% in 4Q11). Interest costs were lower due to one-off costs incurred a year ago due to refinancing activities. As a result, distributable income grew by 17% to S$12m, translating to a DPU of 1.171 Scts (+17% y-o-y). We note that CREIT has also announced that a dividend reinvestment plan will be instituted in the quarter ended Mar’12.

Perennial China Retail Trust: Change in major shareholder (CIMB)

Perennial China Retail Trust
Current S$0.50
Target S$0.65
Change in major shareholder

Change of shareholding saw PCRT’s local partner offloading his stake in PCRT. Mr Kuok now holds a 17% stake. New additional earn-out amount negotiated with Summit Group buffers this negative news.We take comfort in greatercertainty of higherdividend yields till 2014.

Cache Logistics Trust: 1Q12: Building up for CWT Hub 3 (UOBKH)

Cache Logistics Trust
Share Price S$1.00
Target Price S$1.10
Upside +10.0%
52-week high/low S$1.05/S$0.920

1Q12: Building up for CWT Hub 3

Results
• Results in line with expectations. Cache Logistics Trust (Cache) reported 1Q12 distributable income of S$13.4m (+7.6% yoy, unchanged qoq) and DPU of 2.086 cents (+6.9% yoy, -0.8% qoq). 1Q12 DPU is in line with our expectations, accounting for 27% of our full-year estimate of 7.80 cents.

Keppel Land: Boosted by Reflections (DBSV)

Keppel Land
BUY S$3.34 STI : 3,000.58
Price Target : 12-month S$ 3.67 (Prev S$ 3.56)

Boosted by Reflections
• 1Q12 results in line with expectations, maintain Buy with a slightly revised TP of $3.67
• Recognition of deferred profits from Reflections at Keppel Bay the main reason for 70% y-o-y jump in 1Q12 earnings
• Low gearing of 0.16x provides robust reinvestment capacity for RNAV reflation prospects in the medium term

Market is getting heated up all over again (AM)

Market is getting heated up all over again

• New residential sales showed no lack of strength with developers moving 2,393 units (excluding ECs) in March 2012. For 1Q2012, total sales tally came up to 6,678 units, over half of our full year estimate. It was also the best quarter since 2009. We are revising our full year estimate upwards by 50% to 18,000 units for 2012F.

Tiger Airways: Snagging a 40% stake in SEAIR (DMG)

Tiger Airways: Snagging a 40% stake in SEAIR
(BUY, S$0.725, TP S$0.87)
Tiger Airways has signed a revised term sheet to purchase a 40% stake in Philippines South East Asian Airline (SEAIR) from existing foreign investors for US$7m (previously 32.5% for US$6m). At present, Tiger has a partnership with SEAIR leasing two of its A319 aircrafts to the latter with tickets being sold on Tiger’s website. Earlier, Philippines Civil Aeronautics Board (CAB) had imposed a cease-and-desist order on SEAIR, halting domestic flights following joint complaints by four of SEAIR’s local competitors for violation of cabotage laws but after an investigation, CAB has lifted restrictions. Tiger took a S$7m provision for SEAIR’s aircraft leasing in 3QFY12, prior to the lifting of domestic restrictions. We do not expect SEAIR to be able to settle its debts with Tiger yet, and we expect the associate to be loss-making for the first two years of operations. Pending more details on capacity and routes, we maintain our earnings estimates and TP of S$0.87, pegged to 3x FY13F P/B (one year historical mean).

OSIM International: Growing on multiple fronts (DMG)

OSIM International: Growing on multiple fronts
We introduce our FY13-14F estimates and expect FY12-14F earnings to grow at a CAGR of 12%, driven by new store openings, new product launches and reduced losses from RichLife China. Our FY12/13/14F are 2-11% below street estimates. We assume same-store-sales for OSIM to be stronger at 10% in FY12 as there was a major store rationalisation in FY12. We expect sales from OSIM, which currently account for 75% of Group sales, to register double digit growth of 11-13% in FY12-14F. As for the nutritional side, a major store rationalization of RichLife China is expected to reduce that unit’s losses by 50% which will help margins expand. Finally, TWG has made a successful foray into Hong Kong registering sales which surpass even the most successful outlet in Singapore. Armed with a huge cash-pile of S$194m, future earnings growth could potentially be further boosted by M&As. 1QFY12 results will be out on 7 May 2012. Re-iterate BUY with a slightly higher TP of S$1.62 from S$1.59 previously, pegged to an unchanged 15x FY12F P/E.

Keppel Land: Earnings boost from Reflections (DMG)

Keppel Land: Earnings boost from Reflections
(NEUTRAL, S$3.34, TP S$3.53)
Associates income boost 1Q12 earnings, Neutral following strong YTD performance. Despite 1Q12 revenue of S$170.2m falling -52.4%YoY due to lower development revenue mainly attributed to Lakefront Residences and Elita Promenade (India); net profit of S$141.9m, +70.3%YoY is boosted by strong contributions from Reflections at Keppel Bay (S$95.9m from handover of units sold under deferred payment scheme) as well as K-REIT Asia. Post the strong share price re-rating YTD, we are NEUTRAL on KepLand, TPS$3.53 with the view that further sustained upward rerating from current levels is unlikely due to on-going uncertainty regarding its asset allocation and its current interim status as a Singapore and China residential developer experiencing policy headwinds in both markets. Moving forward, KepLand is well positioned for capital deployment with healthy balance sheet c.0.16x net gearing.

China Minzhong: fundamentals of the business remains intact (Limtan)

CHINA MINZHONG
S$0.91-CMIN.SI
 China Minzhong’s share price fell 7 cents to 91 cents yesterday on 12,891,000 shares, heavier than its 6 month average volume of 5,557806 shares.

 The 7+% fall on heavier than normal trading volume on a day when the overall market was up 0.3% is definitely a concern.

Property continues climb

The Star Online > Business
Wednesday April 18, 2012
Property continues climb
The price of homes expected to advance 5% to 10% this year

By THOMAS HUONG
huong@thestar.com.my

PETALING JAYA: Overall price appreciation for residential properties is expected to range between 5% and 10% this year, according to CIMB Research.

In a report, the research unit said residential properties' price appreciation could be even higher but it believed that the Government would continue to remain vigilant on “runaway” property prices.

Cambridge Industrial Trust: Continue to strengthen through acquisitions (DMG)

CAMBRIDGE INDUSTRIAL TRUST
Price S$0.550
Previous S$0.605
Target S$0.605
Continue to strengthen through acquisitions

Full year results in-line with expectations. Cambridge Industrial Trust (CIT) released its 1Q12 results yesterday posting gross revenue and net property income of S$20.9m (+8.2% YoY) and S$18.0m (+8.4% YoY) respectively. The increase in revenue is mainly attributed to additional contributions from the five acquired properties over the last twelve months. DPU for the quarter came in at 1.171 S¢ (+17% YoY), equivalent to 24% of our FY12 DPU estimate. Going forward, we expect CIT’s DPU to continue to remain strong from 1) additional contributions from 25 Pioneer Crescent and 16 Tai Seng Street, 2) resilient industrial rental rates and 3) the completion of the BTS project at Tuas in 2H12. We maintain our BUY call on CIT with an unchanged DDM based (COE: 10.7%, terminal growth: 1.0%) TP of S$0.605. With CIT currently trading at 7.5% spread vs the pre-crisis historical mean of 4.6%, our TP represents a spread of 6.7% posting a potential upside of 10%
Warren E. Buffett(沃伦•巴菲特)
Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful
别人贪婪时我恐惧, 别人恐惧时我贪婪
投资只需学好两门课: 一,是如何给企业估值,二,是如何看待股市波动
吉姆·罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)
“错过时机”胜于“搞错对象”:不会全军覆没!”
做自己熟悉的事,等到发现大好机会才投钱下去

乔治·索罗斯(George Soros)

“犯错误并没有什么好羞耻的,只有知错不改才是耻辱。”

如果操作过量,即使对市场判断正确,仍会一败涂地。

李驰(中国巴菲特)
高估期间, 卖对, 不卖也对, 买是错的。
低估期间, 买对, 不买也是对, 卖是错的。

Tan Teng Boo


There’s no such thing as defensive stocks.Every stock can be defensive depending on what price you pay for it and what value you get,
冷眼(冯时能)投资概念
“买股票就是买公司的股份,买股份就是与陌生人合股做生意”。
合股做生意,则公司股份的业绩高于一切,而股票的价值决定于盈利。
价值是本,价格是末,故公司比股市重要百倍。
曹仁超-香港股神/港股明灯
1.有智慧,不如趁势
2.止损不止盈
成功者所以成功,是因为不怕失败!失败者所以失败,是失败后不再尝试!
曾淵滄-散户明灯
每逢灾难就是机会,而是在灾难发生时贱价买股票,然后放在一边,耐性地等灾难结束
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