Saturday, March 31, 2012

曾渊沧:全球资金供应大增 刺激股市回升

曾渊沧:全球资金供应大增 刺激股市回升
2012年02月17日14:53腾讯财经特约曾渊沧

[导读]现在根据欧洲传媒的报道,本月底欧洲中央银行至少会印出1万亿欧元。在钞票狂印之下,股市不可能不升

香港股市越来越好,美股走势强劲,不断创近年新高,欧债危机逐渐缓和,本月底欧洲中央银行会再一次推出LTRO,大印钞票。现在根据欧洲传媒的报道,本月底欧洲中央银行至少会印出1万亿欧元。在钞票狂印之下,股市不可能不升。

中国内地的情况也在改善中,中国人民银行抽紧银根已经两年,开始影响了实体经济的运行。因此,今年初,全国金融会议终于定下一个新政策,那就是要求银行保护实体经济的运行,甚至也要维持股市的信心。股市虽然被视为虚拟经济,但是股市对实体经济而言也是重要的。股市可以为企业进行集资的活动,企业无资不行,因此为企业集资就是股市对实体经济的贡献。自从全国金融会议召开之后,中国全国各地的中小企业开始活起来,开始获得银行的贷款,股市也活起来,反复回升。

财经追击Episode 49--18.03.2012 (Lemon Law & Warrants)

Check out this 财经追击 - Episode 49

巴菲特最推崇的十本书之二:《聪明的投资者》(下)

巴菲特最推崇的十本书之二:《聪明的投资者》(下)
刘建位 2010-12-03

核心提示:如何成为一名好的投资者?巴菲特的回答是:阅读。如何成为像巴菲特一样的投资者?巴菲特研究者刘建位的回答是:读巴菲特读过的书。今后一段时间,刘建位将在21世纪网专栏中推出系列文章,告诉你巴菲特推崇哪些投资书籍,并从哪些书中得到启示。此篇为该系列的第四篇:巴菲特最推崇的十本书之二:《聪明的投资者》(下)。

格雷厄姆独立完成《聪明的投资者》第四版修订,他并不完全赞同巴菲特的改动。

S'pore market value surges 14.1% in Q1

Business Times - 31 Mar 2012
S'pore market value surges 14.1% in Q1
Investor confidence boosts market cap to eight-month high of $817.6b

By KELLY TAY

A REBOUND in investor confidence has sent the market value of the Singapore bourse to an eight-month high.

The Singapore market closed the first quarter of 2012 with a market capitalisation of $817.6 billion, up 14.1 per cent over the course of the three months, from end-December 2011's $716.3 billion. The market value was also the highest since July 2011 when it stood at $851.3 billion.

Consolidation the best option for easing overcapacity: shipping execs

Business Times - 31 Mar 2012
Consolidation the best option for easing overcapacity: shipping execs
By LYNN KAN

THE consensus among shipping executives is that consolidation is the best way forward for now to deal with an oversupply of ships.

According to a 'live' straw poll of 60 Singapore-based shipping executives conducted by KPMG yesterday, 66 per cent agreed that consolidation is the most necessary change to enhance returns for shareholders.

Shipping industry sees more 'alternative' funds

Business Times - 31 Mar 2012
Shipping industry sees more 'alternative' funds
By LYNN KAN

MORE 'alternative investors' such as hedge funds and commodity companies will pour their capital into shipping companies or assets, said a panel of shipping industry players at a KPMG event yesterday.

That will come about as the landscape of ship financing changes, with traditional European lenders tightening credit to comply with stricter capital requirements.

NOL postpones proposed S$ issue

Business Times - 31 Mar 2012
NOL postpones proposed S$ issue
(Singapore)

NEPTUNE Orient Lines (NOL) yesterday called off its proposed issue of Singapore dollar-denominated perpetual capital securities.

'In view of the current market conditions in Asia, the company has decided to postpone the proposed issue of the securities to a time when the market conditions are more favourable for a benchmark issue,' the shipping group said in a statement without elaborating. The company 'would like to thank the investor community for their time and favourable feedback on the company's credit'.

Room for Asian stocks to rise by 10-15%: DBS

Business Times - 31 Mar 2012
Room for Asian stocks to rise by 10-15%: DBS
By EMILYN YAP

INVESTORS will have to be more discerning about their stock picks from now on. While a tide of liquidity lifted equities across the board in the first quarter, fundamentals will be the key driver ahead.

'The easy money's been made,' said DBS group research head Timothy Wong, who sees a 10-15 per cent upside for Asian equities in the next 12 to 18 months.

More cooling measures 'likely'

Business Times - 31 Mar 2012
More cooling measures 'likely'

By MINDY TAN

THE likelihood of the government implementing a sixth round of cooling measures is now much higher than two months back.

That being said, measures, if implemented, are likely to happen only in the second quarter of this year, said Png Poh Soon, head of consultancy and research at Knight Frank.

Sun Hung Kai storm sinks property stocks

Business Times - 31 Mar 2012
Sun Hung Kai storm sinks property stocks

Local media reports link arrests to providing luxury flats to official on the cheap, ouster of older brother from company leadership

By SHU-CHING JEAN CHEN
IN HONG KONG

IT'S being called the 'Sun Hung Kai storm', after the arrest of the two joint chairmen of the city's largest real estate developer sent property stocks tumbling in Hong Kong.

Sun Hung Kai Properties saw its stock plunge as much as 15.4 per cent - its largest fall since January 1998 - in the opening session yesterday. It recovered slightly to close down 13 per cent at HK$96.50 on its first day of trading after the company's controlling shareholders, brothers Thomas and Raymond Kwok, were arrested in what is believed to be the biggest bribery-related probe in Hong Kong's corporate history. The company's market value shed HK$38 billion yesterday and was blamed for the 68-point drop in the benchmark Hang Seng Index.

Privatisation targets: Which company could be taken private next?

The scent of privatisation is in the air. Despite the run-up in the market earlier this year, a number of Singapore Exchange-listed companies are trading below their book valuations, spurring market watchers to question whether their major shareholders will seize the opportunity to take them private. One recent example is Meiban Group, which makes plastic injection-moulded components for consumer electronics. On March 15, its chairman and CEO George Goh offered minority shareholders 40 cents a share to privatise the small-cap company.

Corporate earnings improve in 4Q2011, but more weakness lies ahead in 2H2012

Concerns about global growth and the debt crisis in Europe late last year have all but melted away in the last couple of months. The Straits Times Index has jumped 356.4 points, or 13.5%, since the beginning of this year. The rise has been fuelled by improving economic data out of the US as well as the European Central Bank’s Long-Term Refinancing Operation (LTRO) first announced in December.

Yet, analysts are ambivalent about the sustainability of the rally, with some recommending that investors maintain a flexible stance. Kenneth Ng, head of research at CIMB Research, sees the STI hitting 3,340 by mid-year, about 11.2% higher than its current level. That would reflect an average stock valuation of 14 times earnings. Ng says, “But I think by 2H2013, the concerns will be about Europe, how it handles a real economic slowdown, when things start to go bad. Those things will lead to [another round of] fear, about a slowdown and its effects.”

Manu Bhaskaran: Is the optimism about Myanmar justified?

THE EXCITEMENT ABOUT Myanmar is growing as the country’s leaders have surprised everyone by beginning a process of political and economic reforms. With its population of around 60 million, a strategic position bordering China and India and an undoubted wealth of under-exploited resources, a reforming Myanmar could well become the investment story of the decade. Will Myanmar live up to the optimistic expectations or will it disappoint?

Our take is an optimistic one. We believe that enough momentum will be built as a result of the reforms so far to overcome obstacles to a surge in growth. However, it is typical of countries in the early stages of a growth surge to encounter occasional mishaps along the way, so investors must be prepared for some accidents along the way.

Bob Doll: More room for stocks to run

EQUITY MARKETS AROUND the world are still advancing, thanks to continued improvements in global economic growth and an overall sense that macro risks have been receding. For the week ended March 16, US stocks rose to new post-credit-crisis highs, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average advancing 2.4% to 13,232, the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rising 2.4% to 1,404 and the Nasdaq Composite gaining 2.2% to 3,055.

At the same time, US bond prices sank as yields moved sharply higher, with the yield on the 10-year Treasury jumping to close to 2.3% after trading around 2% for several months. Meanwhile, oil and gasoline prices rose again, gold prices fell and the US dollar gained some strength.

Sunita Sue Leng: Why it’s hard to cash out of your home

Sunita Sue Leng: Why it’s hard to cash out of your home

You work hard and save up for the downpayment on an apartment. After 25 or 30 years, you finally pay off your loan, with a combination of money from your Central Provident Fund and monthly income. Then, you reach retirement. This is the time to enjoy the fruits of your labour. Instead, as most of your wealth is in the value of your home, you are asset rich but cash strapped.

The logical thing to do would be to sell your house and move into a cheaper flat, freeing up money to do all those things you want to do, like travel. However, this is easier said than done. It is also something most Singaporeans are not yet prepared to do. A recent study by Ngee Ann Polytechnic shows that about 70% of Singaporeans aged 40 and above would like to stay in their current home after retirement, instead of downsizing or moving to a retirement village.

Daryl Guppy: Inflation pressure drives Shanghai Index down

SOME COUNTRIES HIDE inflationary pressures by not including or discounting the price of oil — or rises at the fuel pump — in the basket used to calculate official inflation. These include the US and Australia. China doesn’t do this, so the past week’s 6.4% increase in fuel process is transparent and inflationary. It’s the second increase in a month, and the single-largest rise in fuel prices for almost three years. The fuel price has an impact on every aspect of economic activity and hits the poorest people the hardest.

China critics accuse the government of market manipulation if it keeps prices down, and incompetence if it allows prices to rise. The reasons for the price rise are transparent and part of a well-defined policy.

谢国忠:日元黑天鹅

日元黑天鹅
本文来源于 财新《新世纪》 2012年第12期 出版日期 2012年03月26日
   日元走强和日本国内通缩并行的道路是不可持续的,日元贬值将会严重破坏中国经济
谢国忠
  日元走强和日本国内通缩并行的道路是不可持续的。其主要出口行业的不景气以及近来的贸易赤字,说明这条道路就要走到尽头了。日元可能会急剧贬值30%-40%。1996年日元贬值是引发亚洲金融危机的主要因素。中国、韩国和东南亚国家必须有足够健康的银行体系才能抵御日元大幅贬值的冲击。

林园: 我的投资主线

转载: 林园博文

我投资的家到底在哪里,我们研究了欧美发达国家的股市和发现,能够长盛不衰的多数来自于和吃喝有关系的日常消费类关系,还有与身体健康有关系的医药公司,这些公司能够长期占据大市值公司,而有一些大市值公司就是在特定的时间内出现,甚至有些知名的公司我们也没有看见他们长时间盈利,虽然它们能改变人们的生活,最早的一些航空业公司,还有一些技术类的公司,我记得,八十年代的索尼曾是世界最知名的公司,包括一些钢铁巨人,但近十年这些公司都出现了亏损,观察这些现象我们得出结论,我们的投资就是要买一些和嘴有关系的东西。这里有一个简单的道理,别的东西都可以不消费或者消费倾向会发生变化,那就是人们会去赶时髦,就像二十年前的索尼到今天追逐苹果,如果这样的话,我们就不能确定人们一直在使用一个公司的产品,这种消费习惯是随时可以改变的,但是吃喝是人们不能回避的,每天都会吃,对药品的需求也是不可缺少的。所以,我给我自己定的纪律就是,我们投资的家是在和嘴有关系的公司,这是我们的投资主线。当然在牛市中我们也会出去短暂的旅游一下,最终还得回到自己的家,这就是给我定的纪律。

李嘉诚4.5亿美元投资Facebook 回报率达560%

李嘉诚4.5亿美元投资Facebook 回报率达560%
2012年03月30日 16:40 本文来源于 财新网 | 评论(2)
   李嘉诚表示,在Facebook上市后最多拿回本金,其余将作为长期投资

【财新网】(综合媒体报道)“长和系”主席李嘉诚昨日(3月29日)透露,已投资Facebook4.5亿美元,并表示Facebook上市后最多拿回本金,其余将作为长期投资。

  李嘉诚是在出席公司业绩发布会时做出上述表示的。据《第一财经日报》报道,李嘉诚主动透露,已投入4.5亿美元购入Facebook约3%的股权。以Facebook上市后市值可达1000亿美元估算,李嘉诚所持有的股份价值将达到30亿美元,投资回报率高达560%。

Rogers: 'I Hope That the Chinese Market Collapses So I Can Buy Shares'


How Will Chinese Stocks Perform in Q2?


Property & M-REIT selective picks (kenanga)

Property & M-REIT
Selective picks
We are upgrading the PROPERTY Sector to NEUTRAL from UNDERWEIGHT. The sector will be unexciting because of weaker fundamentals on the back of a tighter banking liquidity.

We also believe that the Malaysian property sector has hit peak demand after two consecutive years of >20% YoY growth in sales. But downside risk will be cap by 1) developers’ strong earnings visibility; 2) changes of sales mix towards the affordable segment plus Johor products will buck the general flattish trend and allow for decent sales targets; 3) the market has probably priced in the negatives in the sector; 4) Bank Negara unlikely to introduce further tightening measures. We reiterate OUTPERFORM on UEMLAND (TP: RM2.65) and UOAD (TP: RM1.65) while MARKET PERFORM ratings are maintained on SPSETIA (TP: RM3.90), IJMLAND (TP: RM2.28), MAHSING (TP: RM2.18).

AMWAY : A consistent performer (Kenanga)

AMWAY (M) Holdings
OUTPERFORM
Price: RM9.80
Target Price: RM10.94
A consistent performer

AMWAY (M) is our top pick for 2Q12 for the consumer retail sector with an OUTPERFORM recommendation at a TP of RM10.94. AMWAY has been a consistently profitable company, with its sales having grown at a CAGR of 6.8% since the last ten years and its net profit at a CAGR of 5.6%. In effect, AMWAY’s bottom line has grown 11.5% per annum on average since 2009 and we expect it to continue to rise to 11.1% this year and a smaller 6.5% in FY13. The drivers would be the number of distributors growth rate (5.1% and 5.0% forecast in FY12 and FY13) and a continued rise in its revenue per distributor driven by the rise in private spending (our in-house economist is projecting a 6.8% rise in private spending for both FY12 and FY13).

Axis REIT : A league above the rest (Kenanga)

Axis REIT
OUTPERFORM ↔
Price: RM2.70
Target Price: RM2.82 ↔

A league above the rest

Axis REIT (AXREIT) is our 2Q12 Top OUTPERFORM pick as we reiterate our OUTPERFORM with an unchanged TP of RM2.82, based on GGM (8.2% required rate of return, 2.5% terminal growth and FY12E NDPU of 16.1sen). Overall, we are not worried about the office and industrial segment as occupancy levels of AXREIT are at 97.2% due to the management’s capability to secure and retain quality tenants even with the weaker office segment. We expect RM300m worth of properties acquisitions in FY12E, thus swelling the portfolio size to RM1.5b (23% increase) by year end assuming possible finance by placement of 90.8m new units (RM221m new funds) and gearing of slightly less than 0.35x.

Was there a slowdown in Q1?

The Star Online > Business
Saturday March 31, 2012
Was there a slowdown in Q1?

VALUE & WORTH By ELVIN FERNANDEZ

An unusual ripple has taken place in a property market that usually moves at glacial speed

THREE months into 2012 and what has changed in the property market?

We had an unusually slow start this year and this was because the Chinese New Year was only a month apart from the year end Christmas and New Year holidays and this resulted in an extended holiday mood in the country.

HAI O: On a Healthy Growth Path

HAIO (FV RM1.99 - NEUTRAL)
Last Price : 2.18
Price Target : 1.99
9MFY12 Results Review: On a Healthy Growth Path
Date: 30/03/2012

Hai-O's 9MFY12results were in line with consensus but above our forecasts. Revenue and net profitincreased by 3% and 21.7% respectively on the back of better performance in theMLM division. EBIT margin improved from17.5% to 20.7%, thanks to better MLM sales and enhanced margins from thewholesale division. We raise our FY12 and FY13 estimates given the betterresults, which bump up our FV to RM1.99. Maintain NEUTRAL.

No decision made on operator of commuter train in Iskandar

The Star Online > Business
Saturday March 31, 2012
No decision made on operator of commuter train in Iskandar

By ZAZALI MUSA
zaza@thestar.com.my

JOHOR BARU: The Federal Government is yet to make its final decision on the operator of the multi-billion ringgit intra-city commuter train (ICCT) service for Iskandar Malaysia.

Iskandar Regional Development Authority (Irda) chief executive officer Ismail Ibrahim said the project was still open to other companies that wanted to develop the rail network.

JADI Imaging: Palmotone MPT Line To Kick Off In 3Q 2012 (TA)

JADI Imaging Holdings Berhad
Current Price: RM0.15
TP: RM0.17 (13.3%)
Palmotone MPT Line To Kick Off In 3Q 2012
Business Summary: Jadi Imaging Holdings Bhd. develops, formulates, and manufactures toners for photocopiers, and laser printers.

2011 Was A Bad Year
2011 was a bad year for JADI. To recap, the group’s net profit plunged 69.2% YoY on the back of 8.5% drop in revenue. We believe the main culprits are: i) thin sales volume for both the black colour toners, ii) the appreciation of both Japanese Yen and USD against MYR.

曾渊沧:汇控P/E值不足10倍 估值偏低

曾渊沧:汇控P/E值不足10倍 估值偏低
2012年03月02日10:17 腾讯财经特约曾渊沧
[导读]过去一星期又有多家企业公布业绩。昨日收市后,公布业绩的越秀地产(123)的盈利初期的好,利润竟然高达51.37元人民币

又一个星期过去了,但是,恒生指数竟然原封不动。昨日收市点为21388点,一个星期前为21381点,市场缺乏消息,只能自我上下波动。

Time to reboot (CIMB)

Time to reboot
We are upgrading the tech sector from Underperform to Trading Buy as sentiment is turning positive, helped by a better book-to-bill ratio. The sector is not an outright Overweight as 1Q12 may be a weak quarter, similar to 4Q11.

In light of our recent semicon sector upgrade, we now have three Trading Buys (JCY, MPI, and Unisem) and two Neutral calls (Jobstreet and Uchi). We raise our target prices for JCY, MPI and Unisem but lower our target price for Jobstreet and Uchi. Our top picks are Unisem and JCY.

CapitaLand Sees Plenty of Spark in China

updated March 19, 2012, 12:34 a.m. ET
CapitaLand Sees Plenty of Spark in China

Despite all the hand-wringing over China's growth trajectory, the Middle Kingdom remains a land of milk and honey for Singapore real-estate company CapitaLand Ltd. President and Chief Executive Liew Mun Leong is a longtime bull on China's property market, often expressing confidence in the macroeconomic fundamentals that fuel housing and commercial-property demand there.

Under his leadership, the developer—Southeast Asia's largest by market value—expanded aggressively into China over the past decade, and now owns there a portfolio worth about 12 billion Singapore dollars ($9.5 billion), or 38% of the company's total assets, including residential properties, offices and shopping malls.

Mapletree Logistics Trust: Acquisition growth on track (CIMB)

Mapletree Logistics Trust
Current S$0.92
Target S$1.00
Acquisition growth on track


MLT has acquired 11 assets in 1Q12, expandingits asset base to 109 properties with a book value of S$4.1bn. We are confidentthat growth in Asia’s logistics sector willdrive demand for MLT’s portfolio in the medium term.MLT is our preferred pick in the industrial REIT space.

Nouriel Roubini: Euro Needs to Be Weaker


工行今年无股本融资计划

工行今年无股本融资计划
2012年03月30日 20:39 本文来源于 财新网 )
   工商银行高层表示,将积极参与信贷资产证券化试点,且没有再融资计划

【财新网】(记者 杨娜)3月29日晚间,中国工商银行股份有限公司(下称工商银行,601398.SH;1398.HK)召开2011年业绩明会,董事长姜建清、行长杨凯生同时主持了该会议,并表示,将积极参与信贷资产证券化试点,且没有再融资计划。

   据工商银行公布的2011年度经营情况显示,全年实现净利润2084亿元人民币,同比增长25.6%。其中,基本每股收益0.60元,比2010年增加0.12元,董事会建议每10股派发股息2.03元(含税),派息率约为35%。

2012年中行不会从市场融资

2012年中行不会从市场融资
2012年03月30日 20:44 本文来源于 财新网 | 评论(0)
   中行会探索一些新的筹集资本金的方式,比如股权增发、附属资本筹资等

【财新网】(记者 张宇哲)中国银行(601988.SH/3988.HK)今天召开了2011年业绩发布会,中行副行长王永利在会上表示,2012年中行没有从市场融资的需要,但会探索一些新的筹资方式,比如股权增发、附属资本的筹资,优化资产管理水平,努力降低风险资产权重。王永利同时称,“资本充足率不是越高越好,中行会找一个平衡,未来会以合适的方式筹资。”

   中行已经成为全球系统重要性银行之一,中行行长李礼辉表示,据中行测算,目前不需要额外增加资本,以后中行要走“轻资本“的发展道路,减少风险资产比重和资本占用。

星展唯高达推荐 消费产品与油气股

星展唯高达预测,本地股市可能在年底达到3300点左右的水平。消费产品、石油和天然气领域的股票是较佳的投资选择。

  星展唯高达(DBS Vickers)集团研究部区域主管黄国志昨日在星展银行举办的亚洲市场座谈会上指出,去年第四季,有些投资者闭眼买的股票都可能上涨30%,有些垃圾股股价甚至翻了一倍,因为股市的上扬主要是由流动资金推动。

  不过,这也极易受市场情绪影响。而相比之下,未来12个月的市场是由基本面支持的上扬,因此投资者买股时不能再“闭眼”,而需要深入研究个股的基本面。

海指首季涨14%

在海指成份股当中,房地产股和房地产投资信托的第一季表现最优异,凯德商用产业以及嘉德置地季度涨幅都超过40%。
王阳发 报道
ongyh@sph.com.sg

龙年股市开年的龙腾气象,推动海峡指数今年第一季度取得13.76%,或364.11点的涨幅。

在海指成份股当中,房地产股和房地产投资信托的第一季表现最优异,凯德商用产业以及嘉德置地季度涨幅都超过

各领域指数也反映这一点,房地产控股、石油与天然气以及房地产指数在第一季分别以31%、25%和22%涨幅领先其他指数。因为油价居高不下以及股息收益率吸引人,这海事和房地产股仍旧是不少分析员的首选。

粉饰橱窗带动股市上涨

由于基金在季度最后一天对蓝筹股进行粉饰橱窗活动,本地股市昨日上升0.6%。

  联昌国际研究认为,本地市场目前正处于转折点,好的话可上试3050点和3065点之间的阻力,要是跌破2974点,抛售压力就会加强。

  华侨银行投资研究说,如果这轮反弹在接下来几天无法持续下去,指数就恐会下试2975点。

  海峡时报指数报3010.46点,起16.37点,也是全日的最高水平。

  全日股价升多跌少,上升股208只,下跌股155只,而没有变动的有421只。

  全场总成交量计20亿2427万股,总值16亿零933万元。

星展唯高达:未来一年半内 投资亚洲股市可“加磅”

星展唯高达预计,在未来12个到18个月,亚洲股市的投资回报介于10%到15%,并建议“加磅”(overweight)泰国、印度尼西亚和新加坡市场。

  星展唯高达(DBS Vickers)集团研究部区域主管黄国志指出,对亚洲市场来说,最糟糕的情况已经过去,类似2009年的金融危机不太可能再发生,因为当时各国都对这突如其来的状况未作准备,而这几年许多国家都已逐步学会如何应对。以目前来说,造成股市再次大动荡的可预见因素是中东局势恶化,以致油价大受影响。

银按图索骥: K信托亚洲  K-Reit Asia


银按图索骥
本栏于去年10月18日曾论及这只股票已于0.93元完成了上图中“斜向交叉”中的第㈣点,并预估短期回扯当填补介于1.07元至1.08元及介于1.14元至1.15元间的缺口,以完成第㈤点。可是股价过后依然缓缓下跌,同年12月20日下试0.799元才完成上图的第㈣点,接着渐渐回升,今年3月27日升至0.955元,由于其每日一杆图中的“方向指示”已渐入佳境,而每周一杆图中的“动力”讯号也由负界域趋近“中性线”,估计倘若没有突发性的波动,股价当向上填补上述二缺口,以完成第㈤点才进入中期跌势。


中远集运将继续实施提价措施

中远集运将继续实施提价措施
2012年03月30日 21:18 本文来源于 财新网
   尽管目前整体运价恢复得到理解,但距离整个航线实现盈利,尚有一定距离

【财新网】(记者 吴静)“从2012年1月份开始,中远集运开始实施提价。3月1日,欧洲-地中海航线调涨300美元/TEU,3月15日太平洋航线也实现运价恢复。目前运价恢复计划执行基本到位,几乎是对所有非长期合同,实现100%全额收费,提价效果得到充分体现。”中国远洋(601919.SH)副总经理万敏在接受财新记者提问时表示。

  3月29日晚间公布的年报显示,中国远洋2011年巨亏百亿。其中公司干散货业务实现营业收入233.7亿元,同比下降28.7%。公司集装箱业务实现营业收入364.6亿元,同比减少11.8%。

Analysts positive on IGB’s Johor megamall plan

Analysts positive on IGB’s Johor megamall plan
In The Edge Financial Daily Today 2012
Written by Clint Loh
Friday, 30 March 2012 15:00

KUALA LUMPUR: The plan by IGB Corp Bhd to develop a RM3 billion megamall in Johor Baru has been viewed positively by analysts.

IGB is partnering with Johor-based Selia Pantai Sdn Bhd, via a 70:30 joint venture, to develop the megamall on three parcels of leasehold land measuring 15ha within the Southkey development in Johor Baru.

Southkey is a mixed commercial development undertaken by Selia Pantai spanning 134ha within Permas Jaya. It is located five minutes away from the Sultan Iskandar Customs, Immigration and Quarantine (CIQ) complex.

SelProp sues to quash MRT land acquisition

SelProp sues to quash MRT land acquisition
In The Edge Financial Daily Today 2012
Written by Chua Sue-Ann
Friday, 30 March 2012 15:01

KUALA LUMPUR: Selangor Properties Bhd (SelProp) has taken legal action in a bid to quash the compulsory acquisition of parts of its land in Damansara Heights which have been earmarked for the mass rapid transit (MRT) project.

In a filing with Bursa Malaysia yesterday, Sel Prop said its wholly-owned subsidiary Bungsar Hill Holdings Sdn Bhd (BHH) was objecting to the proposed acquisition of some 22,451 sq m of land and was seeking a judicial review of the government’s decision to acquire the land. BHH is pursuing a judicial review for an order of certiorari to quash the notices of acquisition, it said.

BlackBerry & Beyond


Fortune Real Estate Investment Trust: HK retail sales up for Jan, Feb 2012 (OCBC)

For the first two months of 2012, HK retail sales climbed by 15.2% YoY to HK$77.0b. Jan sales had been up 14.9% YoY while Feb sales were even more bullish with an increase of 15.7% YoY despite Chinese New Year falling in Jan instead of Feb this year. The continuing growth in sales, coming on the back of a 25% jump in 2011 vs. 2010, should continue to support an increase in average retail rents. We believe that rents will grow given that the economies of HK and mainland China continue to expand. China is also currently maintaining its tariffs on luxury imports into the mainland, thus helping to support prime retail rents in HK and the cascade effect on suburban retail mall owners like Fortune. We maintain our BUY rating and HK$4.88 fair value.

Asian Shares Boast Best Q1 in More Than Two Decades


Market Correction Likely in April: Strategist


China Merchants Bank: An improving franchise (CIMB)

China Merchants Bank
Current HK$15.36
Target HK$18.61
An improving franchise

Resilient fee income and strong deposit growth are evidence ofthe continuous improvement in CMB’s franchise. Meanwhile, the modest rise in its CAR may give it flexibility in the timing of its fundraising.

CMB’s FY11 net profit was 3.4% above our estimate, helped by lower opex and provisions. We nudge our FY12-13 EPS up as we fine-tune our credit cost forecasts. In view of the continuous improvement, we upgrade CMB from Neutral to Outperform while leaving the target price basis at 1.8 x CY11 P/BV.

ICBC: Capital results (CIMB)

ICBC
Current HK$4.93
Target HK$6.42
Capital results

Though ICBC’s earnings growth willstart to slowto single digit, itwill continue to enjoy one of the highest ROEsin the sector without facing capital constraints.

FY11 net profit was in line with market consensus but 3.7% above our estimate due to lower provisions. We tweak FY12-13 forecasts while continuing to tag a 1.7x CY12 P/BV valuation to the stock. Maintain Outperform in view of these strong results and lack of capital constraints.

Singapore stocks set for gains in second quarter

Singapore stocks set for gains in second quarter
by Sim Ping Khuan
04:45 AM Mar 31, 2012

SINGAPORE - Singapore stocks are expected to build on their gains in the second quarter as the global economic recovery takes shape.

The benchmark Straits Times Index finished the first quarter in the top third among its regional peers, rising 360 points or 13.5 per cent since the beginning of the year to close just above the key 3,000 mark yesterday at 3,010.46 points.

That is a rebound from a 3-per-cent loss last year, although it is still 200 points below its 2011 high.

Pick the right housing loan

Pick the right housing loan
by Phang Lah Hwa
04:45 AM Mar 31, 2012

Whether you are a first-time home-buyer or are looking into investing in a property, securing the right housing loan package to suit your financial need is of utmost importance.

In Singapore, the major banks offer highly competitive housing loan interest rates and packages. Understanding the differences between these packages and their impact on your financial commitment will help you decide on the most suitable loan package.

What are the different housing loan packages available and which type of package is more suitable for whom?

S$838.6b in fresh bailout funds for euro zone

S$838.6b in fresh bailout funds for euro zone
04:45 AM Mar 31, 2012

COPENHAGEN - European governments capped fresh rescue lending at €500 billion (S$838.6 billion) after a Germany-led coalition opposed a further expansion of the region's anti-crisis firewall.

Adding the €300 billion already committed to Greece, Ireland and Portugal since 2010, euro-area finance ministers put the overall size of the firewall at €800 billion.

"Today's decision is a classic European compromise. It was as far as the German government was willing to go and it was the minimum most other euro zone countries were expecting," said ING economist Carsten Brzeski.

Making sense of the Singapore Residential Price Index

Making sense of the Singapore Residential Price Index
by Colin Tan
04:45 AM Mar 30, 2012

Every month, when the National University of Singapore (NUS) releases flash estimates for its Singapore Residential Price Index (SRPI), there will always be at least one reporter who will be feeling perplexed as to how he or she should read the indices. Are property prices heading upwards, downwards or trudging sideways?

Compared to the Urban Redevelopment Authority's (URA) quarterly price index, the SRPI is a lot more volatile as it is compiled on a monthly basis. It is also confined to completed non-landed properties.

Billionaire HK developers arrested in corruption probe

Billionaire HK developers arrested in corruption probe
Updated 09:46 AM Mar 30, 2012

HONG KONG - Hong Kong anti-graft investigators arrested the billionaire co-chairmen of Sun Hung Kai Properties, the city's biggest developer, in one of the highest-profile corruption cases in decades.

Thomas and Raymond Kwok were detained by the Independent Commission Against Corruption, Sun Hung Kai said late yesterday. Rafael Hui, a former No 2 official in the government, was also arrested, according to a person with knowledge of the matter who asked not to be identified because of the ongoing probe.

Friday, March 30, 2012

CAPITAMALL TRUST - SIAS Seminar: Vibrant Shopping, Safe Returns

CAPITAMALL TRUST_Presentation_Slides_SIAS_seminar

投資心理戰:內銀不良貸款趨升

投資心理戰:內銀不良貸款趨升
2012/03/29
內地今年經濟增長目標將設定為7.5%,低於原有8%的目標,並強調內房調控的決心堅定不移。在經濟減速加上樓價潛在下跌的危機,內地銀行業的不良貸款,會否在今年上升?

在過去的二十年,內地銀行業的不良貸款,可分為兩個高增長期及兩個微增長期。第一個高峰期在九一至九三年,四家國有大銀行的不良貸款比率,從九0年的10%,升到九二年的15%,到九三年更急升至的20%;當時出現信貸膨脹,導致經濟及房地產過熱情況,結果出現大量的不良貸款。第二個高峰期在九七至九八年的亞洲金融危機之後,國有銀行不良貸款比率再次急升至25%,後來國家於九九年成立四家新的資產管理公司,接收了共13,939億元(人民幣下同)的不良貸款,於00年六月才基本結束。

油價高企 亞航唱好 馬航看淡

油價高企 亞航唱好 馬航看淡
財經 2012年3月30日
By A Web Design

(吉隆坡30日訊)雖然中東和北非地區的動盪局勢導致原油價格高企不下,但豐隆研究分析員在分析油價對業績的影響後,仍然看好亞洲航空(AIRASIA,5099,主板貿服股),惟對積弱不振的馬航(MAS,3786,主板貿服股)則繼續喊賣。

世界第5大石油出口國伊朗和西方國家的爭執僵持不下,美國對伊朗的制裁導致後者近期石油出口大跌。

雖然沙地阿拉伯已宣佈增加產量,但仍無法有效抑制原油價格。

目前,西德克薩斯中質原油(WTI)和布倫特(Brent)原油價格分別企於每桶107美元和126美元。

勞工成本漲 綜合通運中國業務挑戰巨

勞工成本漲 綜合通運中國業務挑戰巨
財經 2012年3月30日
By A Web Design

(吉隆坡30日訊)綜合通運(ILB,5614,主板貿服股)表示,中國經商環境日益挑戰,除了面對競爭,預計勞工成本每年將上漲10%。

綜合通運總經理戴美德指出,該公司核心業務乃物流服務業,因而對於人力資源的需求甚高。其中,綜合通運2011財政年的勞工成本共上漲15%,導致其成本開銷增加。

China COSCO : Shocking loss of Rmb10.5b (UOBKH)

China COSCO Holdings
Share Price HK$4.53
Target Price HK$3.00
Downside -33.8%
(Previous TP HK$3.30)

2011: Shocking loss of Rmb10.5b

Results
• A shocking loss. China COSCO Holding’s (CCH) booked a net loss of Rmb10.5b for 2011, much greater than consensus of Rmb6.1b and our Rmb5.3b. Revenue fell 12.3% yoy to Rmb84.6b. Basic loss per share was Rmb1.03.

Aviation : Jet Fuel Price High at US$135/bbl (HLG)

Aviation (OVERWEIGHT )
Jet Fuel Price High at US$135/bbl

Highlights
 Political Tension in MENA region had caused crude oil price to again rise to US$107/bbl(WTI) and US$126/bbl (Brent). Similarly, jet fuel price had also increased to US$137/bbl.

 Although Saudi Arabia announced to increase oil productions to offset potential supply shortage from Iran, world oil prices continued to maintain at current level.

曾淵滄: 炒三四线股 愿者上钓

炒三四线股 愿者上钓
作者: 来源:中国证券网 2012-02-09 09:45:59

昨日又是高开低收,受到内地股市不济所影响,不过情况算好得多,昨日沪综指跌1.68%,而恒指仅微跌10点,跌幅微不足道。
  随着市场憧憬欧洲央行再度以长期再融资操作(LTRO)方式大印钞票,大笨象汇控(005)近日走势不错,以欧洲为主要市场的思捷(330)也同样亮丽,思捷是去年表现最差的蓝筹股之一,今年若欧债问题缓和,思捷股价有可能跑赢大市。

  三四线股开始炒作,不过,炒作者多为细价股,有一定风险,愿意冒风险者可以跟入。

Hi-P: RIM expects continued sales and margin pressure this year (Limtan)

HI-P
S$0.985-HIPS.SI
 Hi-P’s largest customer Research In Motion (RIM) fell 1.7% in after hours trading adding to its 5.3% decline this year after 4Q ended Feb ’12 sales fell 25% to $4.19bln, below expectations of $4.51bln while earnings per share of 80 cents also fell below expectations of 81 cents.

 This would be the 5th straight quarter that RIM has missed expectations and management said that they would not provide forecasts going forward. RIM expects continued sales and margin pressure this year as competitive pressures continue to remain strong and as they continue to lose market share

COASTAL : Buy on weakness (HLG)

Stock to watch: COASTAL
(RM:2.00 Buy on weakness)
Please refer to Fig4 for more financial highlights

Grossly oversold with rebound targets at RM2.16-2.26
_ The selldown from YTD high at RM2.74 (9 Feb) is probably overdone considering its healthy orderbook of over RM600m (expected to keep it busy over the next 12 months) while the company continues to replenish its orderbook with more ambitious projects; fabrication of higher end vessels and possible fabrication or repair works for the deepwater fields off Sabah, driven by Petronas’s target capital expenditure of RM300bn over the next 4 years.

多層次行銷業務佳‧海鷗第三季賺906萬

多層次行銷業務佳‧海鷗第三季賺906萬
Created 03/30/2012 - 11:49

(吉隆坡29日訊)由於旗下多層次行銷業務表現亮麗,使海鷗企業(HAIO,7668,主板貿服組)截至2012年1月31日為止第三季淨利增長42.79%至906萬3千令吉,比較前期為634萬7千令吉。

該公司第三季營業額為6千279萬2千令吉,前期為5千762萬1千令吉,增長8.97%。

同期間,該公司首9個月的淨利為2千466萬4千令吉,前期為2千零28萬3千令吉,增加21.59%。

Greek crisis far from over: SocGen Private Banking

Business Times - 30 Mar 2012
Greek crisis far from over: SocGen Private Banking
Equity markets tipped to be as volatile as last year

By MALMINDERJIT SINGH

(SINGAPORE) If you think that the current relative calm in the eurozone and the equity markets are a positive indication of things to come, you may be in for a surprise.

The Greece crisis is far from over and, largely owing to that, the equity markets are tipped to be as volatile in 2012 as they were last year. While the diminishing possibility of a contagion effect in the eurozone crisis seems to have calmed markets for now, Greece - the chief protagonist in this dramatic crisis - is far from safe.

Nam Cheong clinches contracts worth US$36.8m

Business Times - 30 Mar 2012
Nam Cheong clinches contracts worth US$36.8m
By LIM WEI SHENG

NAM Cheong Limited, a Malaysia-based Offshore Support Vessel (OSV) shipbuilder, has secured contracts worth US$36.8 million through the sale of three 5,000 bhp Anchor Handling Towing Supply (AHTS) vessels.

The Singaporean customers, including one based in Norway, are offshore support service providers for oil majors in the Asia-Pacific and South America region.

罗杰斯:中国经济增速放缓是好机会

根据《信报》财经网显示,虽然昨日公布的滙丰中国PMI数据,让市场担忧中国经济增速放缓,导致全球股市不振;但「商品大王」罗杰斯却从中看到了机会。

  罗杰斯在接受CNBC访问时称,和控制房地产泡沫的迫切心理相似,中国近年来也一直试图放缓经济。而这次数据降至4个月低点,对于中国乃至全球而言,都是相当好的机会。他甚至表示希望中国市场崩溃,这样就可以买入内地股票。

曾渊沧:内地放弃保八不足虑 趁调整可入市

曾渊沧:内地放弃保八不足虑 趁调整可入市
2012年03月09日09:52腾讯财经特约 曾渊沧

[导读]不担心今年中国经济会放缓增长率至7.5%。手上没股的投资者倒是可以趁这次调整入市。最值得推荐的股是友邦保险

过去几个星期,恒指一直受制于去年8月5日的裂口下降位而无法突破,向上无力突破,就只能向下调整。只是过去几个星期市场也找不到足以令恒指出现较大调整的力量和消息。

Neptune Orient Lines: Issues perpetual securities (OCBC)

Neptune Orient Lines (NOL) announced it has mandated four banks as joint lead managers in its issuance of S$-denominated perpetual capital securities. The size, pricing and distribution rate of this issue have not been finalised. NOL has the option to call the perpetual securities in full after five years. The issue will have semi-annual distributions and a step up of 1.5% p.a. in the distribution rate after 10 years. Distributions are cumulative and bear interest at the distribution rate. Since accounting standards dictate that these perpetual securities are treated as equity, this issue will improve NOL’s gearing ratio and lower its cost of borrowing. Also, NOL’s cash position will be strengthened further, positioning it well to navigate through the difficult environment the container shipping sector is currently facing. Thus, we maintain our fair value estimate of S$1.38/share and HOLD rating on NOL.

OSIM International: Macro risks the main concern (OCBC)

We believe that further downside risks have emerged for OSIM International (OSIM) since our last update on 8 Feb 2012. This stems from increasing signs of easing growth in OSIM’s key addressable markets, including China, Malaysia and Taiwan. In our opinion, lower economic growth could manifest into softer demand for OSIM's high-end products, which are largely discretionary in nature. To mitigate this, management would continue its innovation drive to introduce novel products with fresh concepts and better functionality, while focusing on improving its productivity per store and man. We maintain our HOLD rating and S$1.35 fair value estimate given limited upside potential.

Hengyang Petrochemical Logistics: Coveted locations (OCBC)

We visited Hengyang Petrochemical Logistics’ port and storage facilities at Deqiao and Jiangyin along the Yangtze River in China. We anticipate that revenue could increase by ~38% in 2012 with a full-year contribution from the Deqiao facility, which came into operation in Nov 2011. In addition, the company has won coveted logistics sites at Chongqing and Wuhan. In 2012, it expects to complete the first phases of these sites and a site in Yueyang. Hengyang will need to raise additional funding for these sites. We have NO RATING on Hengyang. Although it does not currently offer dividends, it is trading at a historical P/E of 13x, which is lower than its peer group’s average of 22x. According to Bloomberg, there is no target price available for this stock.

STX OSV: Well-positioned to ride an upcycle (OCBC)

Last week, STX OSV announced that it has secured two contracts worth a total of NOK1.2bn (USD200m). As these contracts already form part of our total contract win projections for FY12F (NOK13bn), we are not making changes to our forward estimates. Of noteworthy was the contract win for an Offshore Subsea Construction Vessel for DOF, which features an innovative moon pool design developed by STX OSV. We think this is further testament to the group’s ability to stay ahead of the curve for product development and garner customers’ orders. Meanwhile, we are optimistic on the OSV market given the improving industry fundamentals. Maintain BUY with fair value estimate of S$2.25.

DBS : Susceptible to headwinds (KE)

DBS Group Holdings
Sell (unchanged)
Share price: S$14.20
Target price: S$11.50 (unchanged)
Susceptible to headwinds

Earnings risk. With Singapore, Hong Kong and Greater China accounting for about 86% of 2011 pretax, DBS’s earnings are susceptible to a slowdown in China and the global economies, while corporate/treasury exposure (81% of earnings, vs. 65% for OCBC and 66% for UOB) add to the volatility. Valuations reflect the low prospective ROE of 10.3% that we are projecting, with downside risk, in our view. Strong fundamentals notwithstanding, our Sell call is maintained, with an unchanged TP of RM11.50 (2012 P/BV of 0.9x).

Industrial & Commercial Bank: Robust earnings with well-rounded numbers (UOBKH)

Industrial & Commercial Bank of China
Share Price HK$4.93
Target Price HK$6.53
Upside +32.5%

2011: Robust earnings with well-rounded numbers

Results
• Results slightly above expectations. Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) reported a solid set of results with net profit up 26.1% yoy to Rmb208.3b in 2011. The primary earnings drivers were stronger fee income growth, moderate net interest margin (NIM) expansion and loan growth.

Bank of China : Better-than-expected earnings but unlikely to repeat (UOBKH)

Bank of China – China
Share Price HK$3.08
Target Price HK$3.64
Upside +18.2%
2011: Better-than-expected earnings but unlikely to repeat

Results
Earnings slightly above estimates. Bank of China (BOC) reported 2011 net profit of Rmb124b, up 19% yoy, beating consensus by a slight 2.2%. With a strong push from subsidiary Bank of China Hong Kong (BOCHK), BOC booked a higher-than-expected net interest margin (NIM). Together with lower provision charge, the bank delivered decent earnings growth for 2011.

Malaysia Telecommunications : Migrant migraine

Telecommunications – Malaysia
Migrant migraine

What’s New
• Competition heats up in the migrant segment... Maxis’s new prepaid plan (called Bagus), which targets migrant workers and tourists, had triggered a verbal response from DiGi.com (Digi), with Digi saying that it aims to grow its postpaid division. Although not a direct response, it is a logical choice for Digi. Both celcos are taking the right approach by pursuing the segments that they are not strong in. However, like Celcom, we are still waiting for Digi to launch new plans.

China Property: Inventory pressure is peaking out (DBSV)

China Property
Inventory pressure is peaking out
• Construction slowdown has started to ease inventory pressure
• Time to digest inventory has dropped from 17.4 months in Jan-12 to 16.4 months in Feb-12.
• Value buys emerge after recent correction. Top Picks: COLI (688 HK), CR Land(1109 HK), Country Garden(2007 HK), and COGO (81 HK)

Slow down in construction offers relief to inventory pressure.
Y-o-y growth rate of 2M12 GFA new start declined to 5% and may show negative growth going forward. Number of months to digest current inventory in 10 major cities dropped from 17.4 months in Jan to 16.4 months in Feb-12, as a result of 3% m-o-m decline in GFA available for sale and 3% increase in GFA sold. As more developers slow down construction and property sales pick up, inventory pressure may continue to ease into 4Q12.

ICBC: Sustainable yield growth (DBSV)

Industrial & Commercial Bank of China
Sustainable yield growth
BUY HK$4.93
Price Target : 12-month HK$ 6.72 (Prev HK$6.83)

ICBC’s net profit was in line with forecasts
Operating cost inflation was the key miss against our forecast
ICBC’s key appeals include its retail deposit franchise, low L/D ratio, sufficient capital, and sustainable dividend yields
Maintain BUY; TP of HK$6.72 implies FY12F P/BV of 1.69x

美股迭创新高 为何A股独熊

Earnings recovery and oil price plays (DBSV)

Small Mid Cap Explorer
Earnings recovery and oil price plays
• SMCs have performed very nicely to date; stock picking is now key as valuations normalize
• O&G in favour as persistently high oil prices lead to higher O&M activity and earnings upgrades
• Outdo subpar macro growth by choosing companies with earnings turnaround and solid rerating prospects

汇丰研究报告: 中国股市回调是第二轮涨势前兆

(香港讯)汇丰控股(HSBC)环球研究发布报告指出,中国股市近期的回调是第二轮涨势的前兆。

  报告指出,中国股市3月份走势疲软,摩根士丹利资本国际(MSCI)中国指数下滑6%,因市场担心中国经济硬着陆、政局不确定,此外,投资者也担心年报公布季节可能曝露更多财务丑闻等。

  该行称,尽管共同基金和散户投资者还没有全面投资大中华地区的股票,但全球市场风险偏好升温意味着,一旦出现了有关中国经济增长趋稳的第一批信号,就可能有更多股票基金加大对中国股票的投资配置。股市上涨还将受到对冲基金入市的推动。

格兰特投资 Gallant Venture

按图索骥


29/04/200828/03/2012
本栏意见只供参考  这只股票自2008年11月24日试0.06元后,就渐渐形成一个小型的升势“斜向交叉”,而本栏也于2010年元月曾预估其基本目标为0.52元,当时股价为0.32元左右。可是股价并没有立即上升,反而先下调至全年6月2日的0.175元,且于其每日及每周一杆图中以“转向”讯号完成了一个大型的“斜向交叉”中的第(三)点。接着持续上升,去年元月3日股价升至0.515元完成了上述的基本目标,也为第(四)点划下句号。因此,估计其第(五)点已于去年12月28日的0.23元结束,倘若股价能顺利穿上0.52元,创其中期目标将是0.78元了。

曾淵滄專欄 2012 03 30: 中石油唔憂無錢賺

中石油唔憂無錢賺
周二,港股出現一日亢奮,兩天後打回原形。內地股市表現得太差,一跌再跌,滬綜指跌破 2300點後,市場信心動搖了,昨日再進一步下跌,跌至 2252點,跌幅大於恒指,跌至兩個月來的低點,年初至今的回升浪已無力持續。

昨日收市後,多家大藍籌公佈業績,和黃( 013)盈利高達 560億元,增長 1.8倍,非常亮麗,不包括出售碼頭的特殊利潤,也有 36%的增長。和黃賺大錢,長實( 001)也自然得益,盈利為 460億元,增長 72%,扣除和黃帶來的額外利潤,增長率也有 15%,不算差,以長實每股 19.88元的利潤計算, PE值僅 5.1倍,扣除和黃的特殊收益,核心 PE值也只有 8倍,如此大藍籌如此低的 PE值。長實公佈業績,記者自然會追問主席李嘉誠,是否擔心新特首上場會影響樓價?當然,答案一定是不擔心。

PARKWAY LIFE REIT: Acquisitions in the pipeline (DMG)

PARKWAY LIFE REIT
Price S$1.785
Previous S$2.07
Target  S$2.07
Acquisitions in the pipeline

Expands portfolio and enters Malaysian market. PREIT recently acquired three nursing homes in Japan for a total price of JPY3.0b (~S$50.0m), which are expected to generate a net property yield of 7.8%. These properties will contribute to revenue from 2Q12. This purchase will be funded by borrowings. PREIT also recently marked its first step into Malaysia, with the acquisition of strata title units within Gleneagles Medical Centre in Kuala Lumpur, at a purchase price of RM16.0m (~S$6.5m) cash. The Malaysia properties would contribute to revenue from 3Q12.

Tiger Airways: Every cub has its day (DBSV)

Tiger Airways Holdings
BUY S$0.78
Price Target : 12-Month S$ 1.01

Every cub has its day
• Reactivation of Mandala’s AOC and set- up of new base in Australia give Tiger more flexibility in aircraft deployment in FY13 (Mar-YE)
• Now easier for Singapore operations to digest the excess capacity to be added in FY12 and improve loads
• Expect turnaround by 3Q-FY13; maintain BUY with TP of S$1.01

ASL Marine: Buy ahead of earnings upswing (DBSV)

ASL Marine Holdings
BUY S$0.570
Price Target : 12-Month S$ 0.78
Buy ahead of earnings upswing
• Good earnings visibility with healthy orderbook of S$553m and solid book-to-bill ratio of 2.1x
• Expect earnings recovery in FY13F
• Maintain BUY for 39% upside to our TP of S$0.78

CH Offshore: Recovery driven re-rating (DBSV)

CH Offshore
BUY S$0.40
Price Target : 12-month S$ 0.50

Recovery driven re-rating
• CHO to benefit from improving charter market; earnings to bottom out in FY12 and recover +22% in FY13F
• With 43% of market cap backed by net cash by end FY12, attractive annual DPS of 2.75 Scts should be sustainable
• BUY on earnings recovery and compelling valuations; TP S$0.50

China Minzhong: Fundamentally resilient (DBSV)

China Minzhong
BUY S$1.01
Price Target : 12-Month S$ 1.45

Fundamentally resilient
• Near-term turnaround on the cards
• End demand remains fundamentally resilient
• Higher capacity and volume sales to drive FY13F earnings growth of 21%
• Reiterate Buy, TP S$1.45

Sound Global: Keeping up with the flow (DBSV)

Sound Global Limited
BUY S$0.60
Price Target : 12-Month S$ 0.86

Keeping up with the flow
• Strong earnings track record and order wins momentum
• Record-high order backlog of RMB2.7bn provides strong growth visibility
• Attractive valuation at 10x FY12 PE; recommend BUY with S$0.90 TP

Ezion : Breaks into new growth markets (DBSV)

Ezion Holdings
BUY S$0.97
Price Target : 12-Month S$ 1.25
Breaks into new growth markets
• Ezion breaks into new market with 8th liftboat contract
• Good deployment of recent placement proceeds; contract to yield a healthy ROE of 57%
• Contract will raise FY13F earnings by 3% and enhance its long term earnings visibility
• BUY as Ezion continues to build on its growth story; TP S$1.25.

Where Is the Baltic Dry Index Heading?


陸銀壞賬漸攀升 三五年後恐引爆

陸銀壞賬漸攀升 三五年後恐引爆
大中華圈
29/03/2012 20:31

(上海29日訊)截至28日,中國大陸已有8家銀行公布去年年報,不良貸款、逾期貸款余額有增加跡象,專家警告,大規模壞賬或在三、五年后引爆。

 中歐國際工商學院教授許小年警告,由于體制因素,大陸在2009年、2010年推出的人民幣4兆元(約1.9兆令吉)擴大投資所形成的壞賬,可能三、五年后顯現。

Banking: Less uncertainty, more assured of continued growth (UOBKH)

Banking – Singapore
Less uncertainty, more assured of continued growth

What’s New
• We believe European Central Bank’s (ECB) recent long-term refinancing operations (LTRO) and completion of debt restructuring for Greece have enhanced stability of the financial system. The continued and steady pace of job creation in the US would also be positive for global growth. With uncertainties clouding macro outlook receding, we expect consumer confidence and business sentiment to normalise leading to a pick-up in economic activities.

Cache Logistics Trust : Proactive capital management (KE)

Cache Logistics Trust
Share price (S$) S$1.00
52-week price range S$0.915-1.050
Price-to-NTA: 1.1x
Dividend per share / yield: $0.084 / 8.4%
Gearing: 29.6%

Background: Cache Logistics Trust (CLT) is the fourth-largest industrial REIT in Singapore and a niche logistics player. Its portfolio of ramp-up warehouses is mainly on master leases to either its sponsor CWT Ltd or CWT’s privately-held parent, C&P Holdings. CLT offers a competitive distribution per unit yield of 8.4% based on consensus estimates, and its balance sheet is relatively stronger than its peers.

Thursday, March 29, 2012

财经追击Episode 48--11.03.2012 (HDB & Warrants)

Check out this great 财经追击 - Episode 48

李 嘉 誠 強 調 絕 不 會 撒 資

李 嘉 誠 強 調 絕 不 會 撒 資
更新:2012/03/29 18:22
長 實 集 團 主 席 李 嘉 誠 評 論 梁 振 英 當 選 特 首 。 他 指 特 區 政 府 不 以 個 人 界 定 , 最 重 要 是 法 律 和 核 心 價 值 延 續 。 他 又 表 示 會 繼 續 和 政 府 合 作 , 絕 對 不 會 撤 資 。

李 嘉 誠 在 特 首 選 舉 中 支 持 唐 英 年 , 結 果 梁 振 英 贏 。 梁 振 英 講 過 今 後 不 分 唐 營 梁 營 , 只 有 一 個 香 港 營 , 李 嘉 誠 會 不 會 加 入 呢 ?

他 又 重 申 絕 對 不 會 撤 資 , 由 始 至 終 都 挺 唐 的 李 嘉 誠 , 又 被 問 到 怎 樣 看 有 富 商 最 後 轉 ? 為 梁 振 英 站 台 。

國際資本大鱷看好農業 巴菲特稱農場土地將上漲

國際資本大鱷看好農業 巴菲特稱農場土地將上漲
2012年03月28日 10:40 來源:浙江日報

“股神”沃倫·巴菲特表示,美國的農場可以被視為長期投資的選擇。自去年以來,農產品價格飛漲,土地價值一併被提升。美國農場的價值也因此不斷上漲,回報率頗豐。

  農場是一項很不錯的長期投資選擇。至於看好美國農場的原因,巴菲特稱,農產品價格上漲可能令農場土地更加值錢。美聯儲主席伯南克近日在美國參議院銀行委員會發表半年度貨幣政策證詞時也表示,美聯儲正密切關注農業土地的價格漲勢。

Facebook-to-make-stock-market-debut-in-May


权威报告指金价见顶 黄金10年牛市或告终

权威报告指金价见顶 黄金10年牛市或告终
Created 03/29/2012 - 17:31

(纽约29日讯)从事商品研究和投资银行业务的CPM集团发表《2012年黄金年鉴》,预测今年黄金价格会维持高企,但不可能升破去年的每安士1920.7美元纪录,意味着黄金的10年牛市或已结束。

CPM集团董事总经理克里斯蒂安预测,今年金价将维持在每安士1500美元以上,未来几年则徘徊于每安士1400美元以上。

CPM集团每年发表的黄金市场分析报告向来受投资者重视。

低息政策即将逆转 债券天王建议快逃

低息政策即将逆转 债券天王建议快逃
Created 03/29/2012 - 17:39

(纽约29日讯)债券天王格罗斯在最近一封致投资者信中,建议客户准备好大逃亡,因为低利率等有利市场的政策即将反转,将带来强大逆风。

格罗斯27日在信中指出,1963年出品、刻划德国战俘营受困美军的电影《The Great Escape》,很像在描述当今投资者的心情。

他觉得片中的纳粹很像现实生活中的庞大债务,投资者若不像电影主角暗中挖地道策划逃亡,就甭提退休了。

警告底线已到 沙地盼油价跌

警告底线已到 沙地盼油价跌
Created 03/29/2012 - 17:40

(伦敦29日讯)继法国宣布加入美国和英国的联手释油协商后,沙地阿拉伯石油部长纳伊米28日以其罕见最直接的措辞抨击高涨的油价,不过,他并未提及沙地近期内将增加石油供应。

原油期货周三收盘下跌,因美国原油库存意外大幅增加且战略石油储备释放的可能再现。

纽约商品交易所五月轻质低硫原油期货合约结算价跌1.92美元,至每桶105.41美元,跌幅1.8%。ICE布伦特原油期货合约跌1.10美元,至每桶124.16美元。

手握130億‧半年內併購資產‧楊忠禮機構擴展亞洲

手握130億‧半年內併購資產‧楊忠禮機構擴展亞洲
Created 03/29/2012 - 11:36

(吉隆坡28日訊)楊忠禮機構(YTL,4677,主板貿服組)將於未來6個月內透過併購亞洲電力、洋灰或產業資產,擴大亞洲業務。

鑑定併購目標

董事經理丹斯里楊肅斌接受《彭博社》專訪時說,該集團已鑑定併購目標,大約第二或第三季便可出手。

57歲的楊肅斌不願披露特定目標,惟他表示緊隨該集團全購楊忠禮洋灰(YTLCMT,8737,主板工業產品組)後,可能派4年來最高股息。

Torm in lifeline talks with two investor groups

Business Times - 29 Mar 2012
Torm in lifeline talks with two investor groups

(COPENHAGEN) Danish shipping company Torm A/S, struggling with debt, said it is in talks with two international groups of investors on an injection of between US$100 million and US$200 million in capital as a lifeline to help it avoid bankruptcy.

If the talks lead to an agreement, the new investors would get a significant shareholding in Torm, with the final ownership structure to be negotiated, it said on Tuesday.

Boustead bags Bombardier building job

Business Times - 29 Mar 2012
Boustead bags Bombardier building job
By VEN SREENIVASAN

(SINGAPORE) Engineering and construction group Boustead Singapore has secured a design-build- and-lease contract from Bombardier Aerospace for a 6,490 square metre integrated aircraft service centre and office facility at the Seletar Aerospace Park.

This is Boustead's 13th project in the aerospace sector, but the 10th design-build-and-leaseback facility.

FSL Trust lands its first charter contract of the year

Business Times - 29 Mar 2012
FSL Trust lands its first charter contract of the year
By LIM WEI SHENG

FIRST Ship Lease Trust (FSL Trust) has landed its first charter contract of the year with Brazilian oil major Petroleo Brasileiro (Petrobras).

FSL Singapore, a 47,470 deadweight-tonne (dwt) product tanker, will be on a three-year time-charter contract to Petrobras at a gross daily rate of US$14,000.

NOL perpetual securities could raise US$200m

Business Times - 29 Mar 2012
NOL perpetual securities could raise US$200m
Proceeds from the issuance may go towards expanding its logistics business

By LYNN KAN

ANALYSTS have floated more details about Neptune Orient Lines' proposed Singapore-dollar denominated perpetual capital securities issuance, which is thought to help improve the shipping and logistics company's indebtedness.

Credit Suisse estimates that NOL will raise not less than US$200 million and the coupon rate to be north of 5 per cent.

S'pore midcaps outpace market as rally continues

Business Times - 29 Mar 2012
S'pore midcaps outpace market as rally continues
By KENNETH LIM

SINGAPORE mid-cap stocks are outperforming the rest of the market as the first quarter draws to a close, as investors look for better va-lue outside of blue chips amid a sustained equity rally.

The FTSE ST Mid Cap Index - which comprises the 50 stocks with the next largest market capitalisation after the 30 stocks of the Straits Times Index - has climbed 18.5 per cent in value to 695.6 so far this year.

颜子伟: 近期本地商品股 受中国经济冲击

日期:26/03/2012
近期本地商品股 受中国经济冲击
财经一分钟 颜子伟解答 德意志摩根建富 高级副总裁

中国股市调整 影响整体投资情绪

《我报》:上周的股市表现不是太好,主要是什么原因?

颜子伟:上周我们提到,中国的股市在今年一月和二月间上升了不少,给投资者一个很好的机会套利。中国现在是全球第二大经济体,它对全球金融市场的影响不容忽视。

拿破仑很久以前就曾经说过了,当中国在动时,它同时会撼动全世界。现在,中国动了起来,对全球起着重要的影响,尤其是在经济领域。

QAF: So good, you can even buy it on its own (CIMB)

QAF
Current S$0.73
So good, you can even buy it on its own

QAFcan easilyenhancevalue by ploughing into the bakery business any capital freed up by jettisoningnon-core assets.Conditions are also ripe for QAF to be taken private. In the meantime, investors cancontinue milking QAFfor dividends.

QAF may have purged itself of its loss-making operations in China. Its below-peer valuations also cushion the stock against downside risks. If it rerates to its historical valuation of 2x P/BV, it could fetch S$1.24.

IGB: Off to Johor (OSK)

IGB
Off to Johor
Price : RM 2.82
Fair Value: RM 2.82

THE BUZZ
IGB announced to Bursa Malaysia that it will be signing a non-binding Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with Selia Pantai SB for the proposed establishment of a 70:30 JV that will acquire and develop three vacant parcels of leasehold land located in Mukim Plentong, Johor Bahru into a retail mall and/or mixed property developments.

China Merchants Bank: Rights pricing to be key catalyst (DBSV)

China Merchants Bank
Rights pricing to be key catalyst
BUY HK$15.36
Price Target : 12-month HK$ 20.90 (Prev HK$21.40)

• CMB’s 2011 net profit was up 40% y-o-y - in line with expectations
• Pre-provision operating trends were in line
• Provisions were slightly worse than forecast even though asset quality beat expectations
• Reiterate BUY; rights pricing to be key positive catalyst

1-year ban for cancelling HDB bookings

1-year ban for cancelling HDB bookings
Property Guru – 4 hours ago

While the Housing and Development Board (HDB) has released more flats and revised the eligibility rules to provide buyers with more choices, it has urged applicants to carefully decide before booking units.

Buyers that cancel their bookings after putting down an option fee will now be barred from buying BTO (Build-to-Order) and resale flats with housing grants for a period of one year, based on new HDB regulations.

Neptune Orient to sell perpetuals with near 6 pct coupon-IFR

SINGAPORE, March 29 (Reuters) - Neptune Orient Lines (NOL) , the world's seventh largest container shipping firm, is planning to sell Singapore dollar-denominated perpetual securities that will pay an annual coupon of close to 6 percent, IFR reported on Thursday.

It said price guidance has been set in the "high 5 percent" range and that the coupon on the perpetuals will rise by 150 basis points if NOL does not exercise a call option after 10 years.

The perpetuals will be a benchmark issue, which means the amount raised would be in the region of S$350 million.

曾淵滄專欄 2012 03 29: 係時候揀抵買股份

係時候揀抵買股份
今日長實( 001)、和黃( 013)、工行( 1398)、中行( 3988)公佈業績,這四大企業公佈業績後, 2011年各大小企業的業績已接近全面明朗化,這應該是時候坐下來,好好地挑選有前景、 P/E值低、股價與資產有較大折讓的股份。
昨日滬綜指大幅下跌 2.65%,守不住 2300點關,收市報 2285點,內地股市節節敗退,銀行減了兩次存款準備金率,依然無法提高股民的信心,這是一場信心戰、耐力賽。

新加坡政府宣佈推出 30年期國債,這是第一次推出這麼長年期國債,有了 30年期國債息率做參考,將來銀行就可以推出 30年期房屋按揭定息貸款,年期長的定息貸款一定受市場歡迎,可以為貸款者消除利率波動的不明朗因素,這對香港是一項挑戰,不排除將來新加坡銀行把貸款業務擴展到香港搶生意。

冲破危机再高飞 新航危机处理

虽然来自五湖四海的旅客中有些未曾乘搭过新加坡航空,但对它的名字并不陌生。无论是业界还是普通百姓,许多都会对它竖起大拇指。在新航星光闪耀的背后,鲜为人知的是近15年来,它如何一次次摆脱危机,成功赢得喝彩。

众所周知,航空业易受不可预知的事件影响,例如沙斯的爆发,或战事突临。这对业者来说根本无法控制。不过,新航一次次战胜挑战,提高了声誉,加强了竞争优势。例如,在1997年亚洲金融危机爆发后,它拉大了与对手之间的差距。在新航客机SQ006于台北中正国际机场(现称桃园机场)失事后不到两年的时间里,新航又重获奖项。

AirAsia: Hikes Fuel Surcharge (OSK)

AirAsia
Price : RM3.39
Fair Value : RM4.57
Hikes Fuel Surcharge
OUR TAKE
Positive impact. We believe that this fuel surcharge increase could potentially raise as much as an average of RM7 per pax in additional airfares. We have an assumption of RM231/per pax (inclusive of ancillary income per pax) as we anticipate AirAsia to see better yields following the termination of Firefly routes to East Malaysia. Our RM231 per pax assumption is higher than the RM221 per pax AirAsia achieved last year. The increase in fuel surcharges will mitigate the impact of rising jet fuel price which has averaged as much as USD136 per barrel in March (3QFY11: USD131, 4QFY11: USD135, FY11: USD131) against our forecast of RM125 per barrel. Note that there will continue to be no fuel surcharges on domestic Thai and Indonesian flights in compliance with the respective country’s aviation regulatory policies.

Bandar Raya: The Sale is on (OSK)

The Sale is on
Price : RM 2.30
Fair Value: RM 2.98

THE BUZZ
BRDB announced on Bursa Malaysia that it is going ahead with the proposed disposal of its selected investment properties through tender. The company said it is working with its legal and financial advisers, Messrs Lee Hishammuddin, Allen & Gledhill and CIMB Investment Bank respectively, to assist the Company to implement the proposed disposal.

Mid Valley Johor in the making

Mid Valley Johor in the making
By Sharen Kaur
sharen@nstp.com.my
2012/03/29


IGB Corp Bhd is replicating Mid Valley City here in Johor with the project's gross development value exceeding RM6 billion, its chief said.
The megamall project in Johor Baru is the second such development for IGB and is also the first project for the developer in Johor.

Group managing director Robert CM Tan said IGB is bullish on the Johor market, especially with continuous growth in Iskandar Malaysia and more Singaporeans going there for properties.

YTL plans more acquisitions, dividend increase

The Star Online > Business
Thursday March 29, 2012
YTL plans more acquisitions, dividend increase

KUALA LUMPUR: YTL Corp Bhd, the best performer on Malaysia’s benchmark index this year, may buy power, cement or property assets in Asia in the next six months to expand its business in the region, according to managing director Tan Sri Francis Yeoh said.

The utilities and construction group had identified targets and might make a purchase in the second or third quarter, Yeoh, 57, said in an interview on Tuesday, declining to be more specific. The company might boost dividend payouts to the highest level in four years following its takeover of unit YTL Cement Bhd, he said.

Johor’s own Mid Valley City

The Star Online > Business
Thursday March 29, 2012
Johor’s own Mid Valley City

By THOMAS HUONG
huong@thestar.com.my

KUALA LUMPUR: The proposed Mid Valley City-type mixed development in Johor Baru, via a joint venture between IGB Corp Bhd and Selia Pantai Sdn Bhd, is expected to take four to five years, and has a tentative gross development value of RM6bil.

“Tentatively, the project will have a gross development cost of RM2bil to RM3bil. It took us 15 years to get Mid Valley City to what it is today. Hopefully, it will take us only half that time with the Johor project,” said IGB Corp group managing director Robert Tan.

China Bank Earnings as Expected


Asia's Container Shippers to Outperform: Analyst


買那種股票最安心!

買那種股票最安心!
( 2012/03/23 16:32 法意PHIGROUP )
[文/法意研究部]讀者要買什麼樣的股票?答案是,底部型態出現的股票。

這種有底部型態的股票,多半是經過整理,待籌碼穩定,隨時都有可能起漲。股價就像一碗水,若水裡面有雜質,放久了都會沉澱在碗底。而底部型態就像水會沉澱雜質,將籌碼沉澱。等想賣的人都賣掉了,在未來上漲時,才不會因為有人賣股票而影響走勢。

PhillipCapital Weekly Market Watch 26.03.2012


Starhub : UEFA Euro 2012 package goes on sale (DB)

Starhub
UEFA Euro 2012 package goes on sale
Price (SGD) 3.05
Price target (SGD) 3.03
52-week range (SGD) 3.09 - 2.65

Football fans can purchase the UEFA Euro 2012 package starting 27 Mar. STH, which holds exclusive broadcast rights for the event, will offer the Euro
2012 package at S$58.85 (incl. GST) for sign-ups on or before 30 Apr and S $69.55 (incl. GST) from 1 May onwards. STH subscribers will also be able to access the content via Internet and mobile at no additional cost. For reference, the previous 2008 UEFA Euro package was charged at S$21.40 and S$53.50 (incl. GST) for STH's Sports Group and non-Sports Group customers respectively. Using historical pricing differential as a proxy, it may be reasonable to assume related content costs have risen 10-30% over the past few years.

IGB mulls over megamall in JB

IGB mulls over megamall in JB
In The Edge Financial Daily Today 2012
Written by Kamarul Azhar
Wednesday, 28 March 2012 14:15

PETALING JAYA: IGB Corp Bhd is looking to develop a megamall in Johor Baru (JB), similar to the multi-billion ringgit Mid Valley Megamall in Kuala Lumpur that was built by the group about 12 years ago.

According to sources in the property sector, IGB is to sign a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with Selia Pantai Sdn Bhd today for the joint development of the megamall in JB.

拉菲達:馬航虧損不可歸咎換股

拉菲達:馬航虧損不可歸咎換股
財經 2012年3月28日
By A Web Design

(吉隆坡28日訊)亞航X非執行主席丹斯里拉菲達表示,不可將馬航(MAS,3786,主板貿服股)的虧損歸咎於與亞洲航空(AIRASIA,5099,主板貿服股)的換股協議。

無論如何,市場對馬航的前景皆不看好。

她表示,馬航已經虧損了一段時間,並不是因為雙方的換股造成。

楊忠禮半年內亞洲購新資產

楊忠禮半年內亞洲購新資產
財經 2012年3月28日
By A Web Design


(吉隆坡28日訊)楊忠禮機構(YTL,4677,主板貿服股)董事經理丹斯里楊肅斌表示,在未來的6個月內,該公司料將在亞洲購買能源、洋灰或產業資產,以擴展該公司在區域內的業務。

楊肅斌在週二接受《彭博社》的專訪時透露,該公司已圈定了收購目標,預計會在第2季或第3季購入新資產。

他補充,在該公司購入楊忠禮洋灰(YTLCMT)後,其股息派發率預計會上揚至4年以來的最高水平。

Soaring costs as the latest challenge (DBSV)

Market Strategy
Soaring costs as the latest challenge; Look out for firms with LT margin expansion plans
• H-shares’ stark underperformance against global indices mostly reflect slowdown in China’s traditional growth engines as well as retail sales deceleration

• Soaring costs from higher wages and capacity expansions represent the latest challenge to profitability. FY11 earnings misses were common among companies

• Despite the lack of clear revenue growth or macro drivers in the short term, we remain positive on longerterm view and advise buying companies with good cost controls and long term margin expansion plans like China Foods (506 HK), Mengniu (2319 HK), Hengan (1044 HK) and Li & Fung (494 HK)

Wednesday, March 28, 2012

透視外資選股3大要訣

透視外資選股3大要訣
( 2012/02/02 11:25 法意PHIGROUP )

【文/Mr.X艾克斯】三大法人中的「外資」,擁有投信、自營無法匹敵的資金,在台股市場上呼風喚雨。此外,外資擁有豐富的研究資源,提出的研究報告,素質之高,眾人莫不關注。從外資期貨的留倉單就可以看出外資對於大盤的多空看法,至於選股就要看外資買賣哪些股票了。要想在台股中獲利,一定要了解外資的動作,舉凡外資買賣什麼股票,都要十分關注。

2012-0327-57金錢爆(那些年我們一起做的QE)


iPad3概念股怎麼挑?

iPad3概念股怎麼挑?
( 2012/03/06 10:56 法意PHIGROUP )

[文/歐斯麥]即將出爐的蘋果大會,蘋果迷引領期盼的iPad3終於要準備亮相了。從蘋果iPod大受好評、開始對科技市場攻城掠地時,金融市場也對於蘋果概念股不斷的推陳出新,讓投資人眼花撩亂,每每市場上推出概念股的建議操作,多半還是幾家歡樂幾家愁,畢竟有些只是硬沾上一點邊,並不是純種的蘋果,吃起來當然不免青澀,要怎樣才能大啖蘋果呢?
首先我們先把新聞版面上的iPad3概念股挑出來,約有如下幾家:

YTL Corp plans acquisitions, higher dividend

YTL Corp plans acquisitions, higher dividend
2012/03/28

YTL Corp, the best performer on Malaysia’s benchmark index this year, may buy power, cement or property assets in Asia in the next six months to expand its business in the region, Managing Director Francis Yeoh said.

The utilities and construction group has identified targets and may make a purchase in the second or third quarter, Yeoh, 57, said in an interview yesterday in Kuala Lumpur, declining to be more specific. The company may boost dividend payouts to the highest level in four years following its takeover of unit YTL Cement Bhd, he said.

马交所抑制无力 UMA质询无阻仙股旋风

马交所抑制无力 UMA质询无阻仙股旋风
Created 03/27/2012 - 20:03

(吉隆坡27日讯)仙股旋风再起,尽管监管当局频频发出“不寻常市场活动(UMA)”质询,不过仙股仍是照起不误,依旧占据热门股排行榜前段。

这股仙股飙风,从去年11月丰升工业(Harvest,9342,主板工业产品股)飙涨开始吹起,至今愈演愈烈,仍未有停歇的迹象。

共发30质询

根据计算,从11月至今,大马交易所发出了接近30次的“不寻常市场活动”质询。

成交量劲缩 跌破1亿股 仙股炒作急降温

成交量劲缩 跌破1亿股 仙股炒作急降温
Created 03/28/2012 - 19:09

(吉隆坡28日讯)随着马股最热门的几只仙股成交量大降,仙股炒作热潮似乎已开始降温。

尽管如此,仙股今日仍盘踞马股热门股排行榜,惟交投已大不如前,除了神通网络(SComnet,0001,创业板)之外,并没有任何股项成交量突破1亿股。

过去数个星期,大马交易所热门榜前列数只股项,成交量几乎都突破亿股。

以今天最热门的股项神通网络为例,其成交量为1亿1095万7000股,比起前两天最热门股项超过2亿成交量,都明显减少。

马股全场成交量也从周二19.44亿股,降低至今日15.62亿股。

最低薪金制經濟影響大‧通膨、失業率、競爭力恐惡化

最低薪金制經濟影響大‧通膨、失業率、競爭力恐惡化
Created 03/28/2012 - 17:45

(吉隆坡28日訊)大馬即將推行的最低薪金制,將可能推高通膨率,如果相應的企業轉型重組計劃未及時到位,長期而言將令失業率增加和競爭力惡化。

野村研究指出,最近報導指大馬首相拿督斯里納吉可能於5月1日勞動節公佈最低薪金制,由於全國大選近在眉睫,此最低薪金待遇被視為政治舉措,但將對經濟帶來重大影響。

勞工生產力增長率近年放緩至2.7%最低薪金預料會設定於每月800至1千令吉之間,假設為1千令吉,意味著非技術勞工的資薪顯著躍升17%,因根據2010年大馬雇主聯合會的薪金調查,非執行職位員工的平均薪酬為每月852令吉,相比之下,製造業平均每年工資增長6%。

Sing-dollar debt issuance soars in Q1, riding on perpetuals

Business Times - 28 Mar 2012
Sing-dollar debt issuance soars in Q1, riding on perpetuals
Funding-deprived issuers saw window of opportunity
By KENNETH LIM

PERPETUAL structures and financial institutions drove Singapore's debt capital market to record volumes in the first quarter of 2012, as opportunistic issuers took advantage of improved market sentiment.

'What issuers are saying is, if the scenario plays out where there's a shock to the system, I need to lock in my funding now,' said Mark Follett, head of emerging Asia high-grade debt capital markets at JP Morgan.

Keep calm: The rally is for real

Business Times - 28 Mar 2012
Keep calm: The rally is for real

Investors are starting to believe the current rally in stocks, commodities, and emerging markets could be a long-lasting one

(NEW YORK)

IF YOU'RE waiting for the next meltdown in US stocks or in commodities, you may want to get over it. After several false dawns following the global financial crisis, more investors are starting to believe the current rally in stocks, commodities, and emerging markets could be a long-lasting one. The S&P 500 closed above 1,400 points last week for the first time since the 2008 financial crisis. Investors piled into US equity funds, with the biggest weekly inflows since mid-September.

Deutsche Bank's ship loans swell as rivals submerge

Business Times - 28 Mar 2012
Deutsche Bank's ship loans swell as rivals submerge

(FRANKFURT) German lender Deutsche Bank is boosting its shipping finance activities while peers are trimming their exposure in a tough regulatory and market environment.

Deutsche Shipping approved loans worth 1.6 billion euros (S$2.7 billion) in 2011, a third more than the previous year, the lender said on Monday, adding that much new business came out of Asia.

Its total ship book stood at 5.8 billion euros at the end of 2011.

CMA's entry into HK indices gets lukewarm reception

Business Times - 28 Mar 2012
CMA's entry into HK indices gets lukewarm reception
By MICHELLE TAN

BEING selected as a constituent stock for an index is usually viewed positively, but CapitaMalls Asia's (CMA's) entry into two Hong Kong indices recently has been met with lukewarm response at best.

A significant pick-up in interest for the property counter, which has been plagued by poor interest of late, is unlikely, despite its latest addition to both the Hang Seng Global Composite Index (HSGCI) and the Hang Seng Foreign Companies Composite Index (HSFCCI), say analysts.

黃金不再金光閃閃?

黃金不再金光閃閃?
( 2012/03/15 15:38 林奇芬 )
原先備受投資人寵愛的黃金,近期有點像落難英雄,身價大不如前,近期再度跌破每盎司1700美元的關卡。究竟,黃金盛世是否告終,目前市場上有二種說法,有一派認為,黃金熊市即將來臨,另一派則認為黃金今年還可挑戰2000元高價。分歧的看法,更加添黃金未來的不確定性。

回顧黃金過去幾年的強勁走勢,跟美元的弱勢脫離不了關係,特別是在美債危機與歐債危機爆發之際,黃金扮演了避險英雄的角色,再加上國際金融市場投資或投機需求的推波助瀾,因而推動金價大幅上揚。

Lex专栏:比亚迪困境

2012年03月27日 13:14 PM
Lex专栏:比亚迪困境
英国《金融时报》 Lex专栏

盲目跟风沃伦•巴菲特(Warren Buffett)的投资者得到教训了。没错,在巴菲特通过伯克希尔哈撒韦公司(Berkshire Hathaway)旗下子公司投资于比亚迪之后,这家以销量计排名中国第二的本土汽车制造商的股价已经上涨了逾9倍。但其后,股价已经跌去了四分之三。现在该公司则发出了盈利预警:比亚迪称,今年第一季度净利润可能比去年同期下跌95%。消息一出,周一比亚迪股价再跌5%。电池业务表现欠佳是业绩下滑的原因之一,这一业务占了比亚迪销售额的十分之一。不妙的是,比亚迪的汽车业务——占营收的一半,毛利率高出公司平均水平十分之一——将无力扭转颓势。

Opportunity To Scoop Up Cheaper Maybank KE's Stock Picks?

Opportunity To Scoop Up Cheaper Maybank KE's Stock Picks?
Written by The NextInsight Team
Wednesday, 28 March 2012 10:44


maybank_ke_smallcaps

SMALL CAPS sprang back to life yesterday, which is reason enough to revisit a Maybank Kim Eng Research report dated Feb 13 which recommended 10 small caps for 2012.

PhillipCapital Weekly Market Watch 23.03.2012



CapitaCommercial Trust: Seeking unit buyback mandate (Daiwa)

CapitaCommercial Trust
Rating Remains Buy
Target price Remains SGD 1.47
Closing price March 27, 2012 SGD 1.20

Seeking unit buyback mandate

mandate to repurchase up to 2.5% of units
The manager of CCT is seeking a unit buyback mandate in the upcoming AGM to be held on 27 April. The mandate will allow the manager to repurchase up to 2.5% of CCT’s outstanding units.

IGB Corporation - Building a megamall in Johor

Price Target : 3.50
Price Call : BUY
Last Price : 2.82
Upside/Downside : +0.68 (24.11%)

- It was reported in the press today that IGB intends todevelop a megamall ' which will have a GFA of 3 million sf ' in SouthKey, JohorBahru, which is estimated to cost RM2bilRM3bil.

- IGB may have a 70%-equity stake in the mall with the restto be taken up by Selia Pantai ' the developer of Southkey ' of which IGB willsign an MoU in the near term. This is not a surprise given that IGB has indicatedit has been looking for pockets of land in Johor for development.

Market outlook and strategy for 2Q2012 (ECM)

Market outlook and strategy for 2Q2012
Our market outlook for 1Q2012 was proven wrong when Europe’s LTRO came in earlier than expected and spurred the FBMKLCI up to 1600. Our 1Q2012 strategy worked out better, with the FBMKLCI lagging regional markets, our dividend yield stocks outperforming the FBMKLCI, and bottom-fishing stocks like Tenaga Nasional paid off. For 2Q2012, the FBMKLCI is toppish at 1600 but downside is also limited in the run-up to General Elections. We are thus Neutral on all sectors except for an Overweight on Construction and Building Materials. Buy IJM, WCT, Lafarge, Lion Industries. In Plantations, switch from IOI to KLK.

Yongnam: Share Price Remains Stagnant Despite Contract Wins (UOBKH)

Yongnam Holdings
Share Price Remains Stagnant Despite Contract Wins;
Accumulate On Weakness
Price/Target: S$0.255/S$0.40

Investment Highlights
• We re-iterate BUY on Yongnam Holdings (Yongnam) with a target price of S$0.40, pegged to the sector average PE of 8.3x 2012 earnings. Based on Bloomberg’s consensus earnings forecast from four brokers, Yongnam is set to report earnings of S$66.1m (+4.3% yoy) in 2012 with a 12-month target price of S$0.39.

曾淵滄專欄 2012 03 28: 要穩中求變考功夫

要穩中求變考功夫
前日,美國聯儲局主席伯南克說:「更寬鬆的貨幣政策可以改善失業率。」就憑這句話,道指周一急升 160點,收報 13242點,已經很接近再創 4年高位的水平,昨日港股也馬上跟着轉勢,恒生指數急升 378點,收市報 21046點。

在美股急升支持下,剛宣佈純利大降 45%的國壽( 2628)股價不跌反升,升幅更跑贏恒指,達 2.72%。

勝獅貨櫃( 716)昨公佈業績,純利增長 50%至 10.9億元,是航運股中表現最好的,不過,大家也不妨留意,勝獅貨櫃的股價走勢,與其他航運股在過去經常有相當顯著的差距,並非同步。

兗煤( 1171)前日公佈業績,不過不失,此股去年出現過炒作,股價創出歷史新高,目前石油價格高漲,煤與石油皆是主要的傳統能源,有一定的替代作用,石油價格高漲對煤價是利好消息,我也留意到兗煤派息相當不錯,周息率超過四厘。

PRESS METAL : Stepping up to the plate (AM)

PRESS METAL BHD
Price RM2.10
Fair Value RM2.63
52-week High/Low RM2.69/RM1.44

Stepping up to the plate

Investment Highlights
• With greater conviction, we maintain our BUY call on Press Metal with an unchanged fair value of RM2.63/share (target PE: 13x). We hosted a luncheon for Press Metal, and came away from the meeting feeling more convinced about the group’s rising prospects as an integrated producer of aluminium products.

Frasers Commercial Trust: Ready to fly high (KE)

Frasers Commercial Trust
Not Rated
Share price: S$0.83
Target price: n/a
52-week High/Low S$0.88/S$0.73
Ready to fly high

Catalysts abound. Frasers Commercial Trust (FCOT) is an office REIT backed by a strong sponsor and offers income stability through long-term master lease agreements. In our view, the positive rental reversion for its two key assets, China Square Central (CSC) and Central Park (CP), and the unlocking of value through a sale or redevelopment of KeyPoint are positive catalysts for the REIT.

Parkson Retail Asia: Emerging market play (KE)

Parkson Retail Asia
Share price (S$) S$1.48
52-week price range S$1.045-1.58
Consensus price-to-earnings: 21x
Price-to-book: 7.1x
Net cash: S$225m
Net cash per share: S$0.33

Background: Parkson Retail Asia (PRA SP) is one of the largest department store operators in ASEAN, with 53 stores in Malaysia and eight each in Vietnam and Indonesia. Most are under the Parkson brand, which is a highly recognised brand in its operating markets.

MAS : February Stats (HLG)

MAS (Sell , EPS )
Price Target: RM0.82 ()
Share price: RM1.36
February Stats
News
 MAS released February statistics showing continued weakness in passenger and cargo demand, largely in line with our forecast.

 The sharp decline in international passenger demand (Feb: -15.2% yoy and YTD: -12.0% yoy), vis-a-vis capacity cut (Feb: -7.2% yoy and YTD: -5.2% yoy), on the back of heavy competition from other FSC and LCC players.

美货币政策料保持宽松 海指再破3000点

美联储主席伯南克暗示美国将继续保持超宽松货币政策的言论,带动市场乐观情绪,海峡时报综合指数昨天再次冲破3000点,起44.1点或1.49%,在盘内最高点3018.91点收市。

  美国隔业股市表现令人鼓舞,三大主要股票指数攀升1%或更多,而标普500的所有10个领域都一律上涨。其中,道指飙升160.9点或1.23%,收报1万3241.63点。

  区域股市除了深圳和上海,其余都纷纷上扬,日本股市涨幅最大,上涨2.36%,其次是香港,涨幅达1.83%。新加坡排在它们之后。

明富环球倒闭 来宝集团美子公司是十大受拖累客户

挂牌公司来宝集团(Noble Group)的美国子公司,在去年美国老牌期货经纪行明富环球(MF Global)宣告倒闭时,仍有超过3100万美元(3910万新元)在明富环球那里,是美国明富环球倒闭时被连累的十大客户之一。

  明富环球因投资欧洲主权债务失利导致债台高筑而资金周转不灵,于去年10月31日申请破产保护,接近2万8000个客户遭影响,当时这些客户在明富环球(客户账户中)的资金高达13亿美元,有关客户账户资金一度遭冻结,其中约6亿美元下落不明。

Why QE3 Is Not Off the Table


Bank on Pain for BofA?


Buying America, Buy Banks?


MAS, AirAsia X sign accord

The Star Online > Business
Wednesday March 28, 2012
MAS, AirAsia X sign accord

The re-accommodation pact will allow MAS to ‘utilise excess capacities’

PETALING JAYA: Malaysia Airlines (MAS) has entered into a re-accommodation agreement (RA) with AirAsia X, which would enable the latter's passengers to fly on the national carrier to “utilise excess capacities” and “generate additional revenue”.

MAS said in a filing with the stock exchange that the agreement was to facilitate the re-accommodation of AirAsia X's ticketed passengers following the suspension and termination of its flights to Mumbai, New Delhi, London and Paris.

StarHub: Five stars for good performance (KE)

StarHub
Buy(unchanged)
Share price: S$3.05
Target price: S$3.33 (from $3.27)
Five stars for good performance

Still a star performer. StarHub has outperformed its two peers, up 5% since early this year. However, it is still a good story for 2012, with potential catalysts from lower subscriber acquisition costs as Android devices appear to be gaining ground. In addition, we expect the new Vodafone roaming alliance to boost ARPUs. TP raised to $3.33, based on target yield of 6% (pegged to the average yield of the top 15 dividend stocks with market cap over $1b under our coverage).

Mapletree Logistics Trust: Acquires two warehouses in South Korea (OCBC)

Mapletree Logistics Trust (MLT) announced last Friday evening that it had entered into separate Sale and Purchase agreements to acquire two cold storage warehouses in South Korea for an aggregate purchase price of KRW63.5b (~S$71.3m). We note that both acquisitions are expected to be DPU-accretive, with initial NPI yields of 9.5-9.9%. Funding for the investments is expected to come from the proceeds raised from the recent issuance of its S$350m perpetual securities. In addition, MLT’s aggregate leverage post all acquisitions announced to date is likely to reach ~39%. We now factor in the two acquisitions into our forecasts. This raises our FY13-14F revenue and distributable income by 2.4-3.9%. Our RNAV-based fair value, however, remains at S$1.20. Maintain BUY on MLT.

World Precision: High demand for locally made auto parts (KE)

World Precision Machinery Limited

Share price (S$) S$0.530
Issued shares (m) 400.00
Market cap (S$ m) 212.0
Free float (%) 21.8%
52-week price range S$0.410-0.725

Background: World Precision Machinery is a manufacturer of stamping machines and related components. It produces both standard and customised stamping machines to suit the needs of a variety of industries, including automotive, electronics and white goods.

Multi-Code 2Q earnings up 21.7% to RM2.18m

Multi-Code 2Q earnings up 21.7% to RM2.18m
Business & Markets 2012
Written by theedgemalaysia.com
Tuesday, 27 March 2012 17:49

KUALA LUMPUR (March 27): Multi-Code Electronics Industries (M) Bhd’s earnings rose 21.7% to RM2.18 million for the second quarter ended Jan 31, 2012 from RM1.79 million a year ago due to a specific non-recurring expense incurred then.

It said on Tuesday its revenue rose 4.1% to RM25.28 million from RM24.27 million a year ago due to sales of a new product. Earnings per share were 4.92 sen versus 4.04 sen. It declared an interim dividend of 3.0 sen per share.

NOL picks banks for S$ perpetual capital securities offering

NOL picks banks for S$ perpetual capital securities offering
Updated 06:15 PM Mar 27, 2012

SINGAPORE - Singapore-listed container line operator Neptune Orient Lines (NOL) has mandated banks for a proposed offering of Singapore dollar-denominated perpetual capital securities, the Dow Jones news agency reported Tuesday.

Proceeds from the proposed transaction will be used for general corporate funding purposes and investments in the logistics business, the company said, without disclosing the size of the offering.

SingTel: India boost ahead (Macquarie )

SingTel
Price (at 05:28, 27 Mar 2012 GMT) S$3.10
12-month target S$ 3.53
Upside/Downside % 13.9
Valuation S$ 3.50-3.56
India boost ahead

Event
 We reiterate our Outperform recommendation on SingTel with a price target of S$3.53 (unchanged) following a review of our estimates for Singapore and Indian operations, and updates for our latest forex assumptions. While we see medium-term benefits from its investments in content and applications, we believe earnings growth over the next 12 months will be driven by improvements in India. Macquarie’s India telecoms analyst, Unmesh Sharma, remains positive on Bharti’s prospects in a market where competition seems to be stepping down from irrational levels (see Indian Telecoms Sector – Obscured by clouds). Meanwhile, at 12x FY13E core PER and 5.6x adj EV/EBITDA, SingTel’s valuations are undemanding vs higher-yielding telcos (6–7% yield), which are trading at 7x EV/EBITDA and above.

Tuesday, March 27, 2012

Rickmers Maritime (RMT) announced that it has chartered out MV Kaethe C. Rickmers (S&P)

Rickmers Maritime
Price: SGD0.31

New Development
• Rickmers Maritime (RMT) announced that it has chartered out MV Kaethe C. Rickmers, a 5,060 TEU containership, to Mediterranean Shipping Company S.A. (MSC). The ship will be employed on a 12- month fixed-rate time charter commencing on March 25, 2012 with a daily net charter hire of USD7,600. MSC has an option to extend for a further 12 months at a fixed net charter hire of USD23,750/day.

World Precision Machinery: Good growth prospects (OCBC)

We visited World Precision Machinery’s operations in Danyang City, Jiangsu Province last week. World Precision is China’s third largest metal stamping machine player by market share. With Phase 1 of its factory in Shenyang scheduled for completion in 2H12, the company will continue the shift of its product mix towards high-performance machines. The company will be a beneficiary of China’s 12th Five Year Plan (2012-2017), under which the high-end machinery and equipment industry is one of seven strategic industries identified. Management is optimistic about its long-term prospects. We DO NOT have a rating on World Precision Machinery.

StarHub: Announces Euro 2012 pricing (OCBC)

Fair value S$3.10
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.20
versus: Current price S$3.05
12m total return forecast 8%

ANNOUNCES EURO 2012 PRICING
• Euro 2012 more expensive
• Likely to break even
• Downgrade to HOLD – limited upside

MSC to double royalty payment to Perak government

MSC to double royalty payment to Perak government
In The Edge Financial Daily Today 2012
Written by Joyce Goh
Tuesday, 27 March 2012 14:22

KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysia Smelting Corp Bhd (MSC) has agreed to pay 100% more in royalties to the Perak government. In return it has secured the renewal of its tin mining leases in the state for a longer period.

In an announcement to Bursa Malaysia yesterday, MSC said its wholly owned unit Rahman Hydraulic Tin Sdn Bhd (RHT) had agreed to pay the state government a higher rate of 5% on sales of tin-in-concentrates.

YTL Corp to buy SG REIT’s CPU for RM43m

YTL Corp to buy SG REIT’s CPU for RM43m
In The Edge Financial Daily Today 2012
Written by Sharon Tan
Tuesday, 27 March 2012 14:20

KUALA LUMPUR: YTL Corp Bhd is acquiring 17.49 million convertible preferred units (CPU) in Starhill Global Real Estate Investment Trust (SG REIT) for S$1 each which amounted to S$17.49 million (RM42.79 million) in cash.

“The CPU acquisition provides an opportunity for YTL Corp to further increase its stake in SG REIT upon conversion of the CPUs. The CPUs also carry a net annual yield of 5.09% (net of withholding tax of 10%), which is generally higher than current fixed deposit rates in Malaysia,” said YTL Corp in its statement to Bursa Malaysia yesterday.

MPacific falls on put option exercise

MPacific falls on put option exercise
2012/03/27
Malaysia Pacific Corp, a property developer, dropped 2.9 percent to 33 sen in Kuala Lumpur trading at 9.36am.

AmanahRaya Development Sdn Bhd exercised its put option to get Malaysia Pacific to buy its stake in Lakehill Resort Development Sdn Bhd for RM110.8 million (US$36 million), according to a stock-exchange filing.

SINGAPORE BANKS: Asia’s funding centre (Barclays)

SINGAPORE BANKS
Asia’s funding centre; initiating coverage
Singapore is the best funded banking system in the region, leaving its banks well placed to win regional market share and re-price assets as peers battle increasingly tight conditions. At the same time we see upside potential for wealth management, driven by Singapore’s high savings rate and favourable demographics. We initiate coverage of OCBC at 1-OW (our top pick), UOB at 1-OW and DBS at 2-EW. In a relative regional context, we prefer the Singapore banks.

CitySpring Infrastructure Trust: Positive Cash Earnings Underpins Distributions (S&P)

CitySpring Infrastructure Trust
Price: SGD0.38
Positive Cash Earnings Underpins Distributions
• Net profit is volatile but distribution stays intact: Due to the occasional timing mismatch in City Gas’ fuel cost pass-through, CitySpring’s bottomline has been and will probably remain volatile. However, these mismatches do catch up and with cash earnings that stay positive, its distribution to shareholders has limited risk.

• Quality regulated assets: CitySpring’s three assets, namely CityGas, SingSpring and Basslink are all regulated assets so that returns are shielded from fluctuating operating costs. Since the assets are located in Singapore and Australia, the contracts carry little enforcement risk and tariff changes are well documented and transparent and approval processes are consistent.

Johor: Ready… Get set… Go! (Kenanga)

Property
Johor: Ready… Get set… Go!
We recently visited Johor to investigate its population growth dynamics since many of the 2012 ‘tipping point’ elements of Iskandar Malaysia (IM) are coming on line. Although we are bearish on the overall Malaysian property sector, our findings reaffirmed our bullish stance on the Johor Property Market. Our Top Pick for developers remain as UEMLAND (OP; TP: RM2.65) because it has the largest exposure in Johor (c. 50% sales from Johor) compared to the others under our coverage (<30 % sales from Johor). IJMLAND’s (MP; TP: RM2.28) Sebana Cove project will be a catalytic one but will only kick off in CY13 even as its overall sales is expected to slow down due to softer Klang Valley and Penang sales. Although Johor sales have picked up for township developers like SPSETIA (Accept Offer@RM3.95) and MAHSING (UP; TP: RM2.05), their overall sales are still heavily driven by the softer Klang Valley market. E&O (UP; TP: RM1.49) will also be another major beneficiary given its Wellness Center @ Medini (GDV c.RM3.0b), which is a JV between E&O (50%), Khazanah Nasional (25%) and Temasek Holdings (25%); however, we believe significant sales from the project will only be from FY14 onwards as it is still in the planning stage. Our Construction Analyst meanwhile remains bullish on WCT (OP; TP RM3.85) as Iskandar region will be one of key drivers for its construction order book replenishment in 2012.

Mass housing play. Our trip’s main emphasis was on mass market housing, allowing us to determine the true population growth potentials, or IM’s final puzzle piece. We visited the following developers projects which are in the ‘affordable’ price range of < RM 500,000/ unit and the upgraders market of RM 500,000 - RM1m/unit; 1) “Affordable”: UEMLAND (Nusa Bayu, Nusa Idaman), WCT (1 Medini Residence) and IJM Land (SuriaMas@Larkin, Permas Jaya); 2) Upgraders: SP Setia (Setia Eco Cascadia), IJM Land (Nusa Duta).

Strong demand observed in the mass housing segment of < rm 500,000 <="" span="" unit.="">Demand has been largely driven by Malaysians working in Singapore, followed by Singaporeans. Johor’s residential demand is more organic as the bulk of the mass housing segment is driven by first home owners, followed by upgraders, and this is supported from the visible occupancies of the ongoing townships. We also gathered that a sizeable number of Malaysians working in Singapore are considered low to mid income earners in Singapore. However, their stronger purchasing power, on the back of favourable Singapore Dollars, enables them to purchase Malaysian mid to mid high-end residentials. It also explains why the impact of the tighter mortgage evaluation criteria appears less severe in Johor vs. Klang Valley. We would like to highlight that UEMLAND will be ramping out its mass housing products with Nusajaya West (GDV RM18b) in 2H12.

It is all coming together. Legoland’s development appears to be on track for its grand opening in Sep-2012, and tickets (including annual pass) are being sold currently. Educity components such as NuMED that has recruited two years’ worth of students, while the other upcoming Educity components like Marlborough College, Trust School, University of Southampton and common facilities (e.g. stadium & sports complex), will be delivered by end CY12. Major highways and interchanges are also all in place, reducing travel time by 30%-50% when compared to our earlier 2007-08 visits.

Sebana Cove is a ‘windfall’ project. IJMLAND’s project is located on the eastern side of Johor and forms a part of IM and sits above an Oil & Gas (O&G) goldmine. Including PETRONAS’ RAPID portion, total land dedicated for O&G amounts c.13,000ac, catering to local and international O&G players like Dialog (OP; TP: RM2.80), Gulf Asia Petroleum and potentially China Petroleum Corp. We reckon Sebana Cove will be a major earnings driver for IJMLAND (launch likely in CY13) as there are very few developers in the area with all other land acquisitions in Desaru/Pengerang having been frozen by the authorities due to the O&G developments. We reckon Sebana Cove’s current GDV of RM1.4b is too conservative and we estimate it could rise up to RM2.6b.

Developers under our coverage are upbeat on Johor. IJMLAND believes its FY13E Johor sales could hit historical highs of RM300m (FY12E c. RM200m); this is helpful since its Penang sales will likely be softer. Other established Johor developers like SPSETIA and MAHSING are also reporting strong positive trends. For the last financial year, Johor residential projects made up 29% of annual sales for SP Setia and 6% for Mah Sing.

JOHOR PROPERTY STUDY TRIP
Ready… Get set… Go! We recently went to Iskandar Malaysia (IM) @ Johor to review the property scene since its 2012 tipping point elements are coming on line soon. The major highways (e.g. Senai-Desaru and Coastal highway) are close to completion and connectivity has improved tremendously. Unlike our previous IM excursions, our emphasis this round was on mass market housings to determine the true population growth potentials. We had highlighted in our previous sector reports that IM’s final puzzle piece is a sizeable workingclass population.

We visited the following developers projects which are in the ‘affordable’ price range of rm500,000 /unit and the upgraders market of RM500,000 - RM1m /unit. Details of our visit can be found in the latter part of this report.

1. “Affordable”: UEMLAND (Nusa Bayu, Nusa Idaman), WCT (1 Medini Residence) and IJM Land (SuriaMas@Larkin, Permas Jaya)

2. Upgraders: SP Setia (Setia Eco Cascadia), IJM Land (Nusa Duta)

We also took the opportunity to visit IJM Land’s Sebana Cove, which gave us insight of potential property plays spilling over from the various Oil & Gas catalysts in Desaru/Pengerang. The site is part of Node D or one of IM’s flagship economic zones earmarked for manufacturing (electronics, petrochemicals, oleochemicals) and bunkering terminals.

JOHOR IS BOOMING
The Singapore factor. On average, there are about 50,000 commuters who travel from Johor to Singapore for both work and education. Sales in Johor have gained momentum since 2009. A big reason is the stronger ties between Malaysian and Singapore, which has been strengthened via G2G agreements and other developments (Khazanah Nasional and Temasek Holdings). Another driving factor is the completion of the Second Link in Dec-2008 that has spurred sales in areas such as Nusajaya where UEMLAND is the biggest beneficiary.

Also, Singapore’s sky high property prices have pushed many people out of the affordability zone. To top it off, Singapore implemented tightening policies via buyers stamp duties to rein in runaway house prices and IM is clearly the greatest spillover beneficiary here. Our visit reaffirmed the trend since the majority of property sales within the upgraders and first home owners segments are dominated by Malaysians working in Singapore, followed by Singaporeans. WCT’s 1 Medini Residence was the only exception, where buyers were mainly locals working in Malaysia.

Occupancy is evident for the mass housing market, but not so obvious for highend segments. Generally, most of the ongoing townships we visited have decent occupancies, save for those which had yet to deliver the first phase. The mass market housings (e.g. Nusa Idaman, Nusa Duta, SuriaMas, Permas Jaya, Setia Indah) occupancies are more evident since the main occupants are Malaysians working in Singapore; this segment tend to be in the low to mid-income earnings segment of Singapore’s workforce. Some developers did warn of the high-end residential market (>RM800,000/unit), which has sizeable Singaporean buyers’ content, being treated as holiday/weekend homes. While this is not ideal for a township’s health, we would like to highlight that UEMLAND will be ramping out its mass housing products with Nusajaya West (GDV RM18b) in 2H12.

Tighter mortgage assessment impact not as bad as other states like Klang Valley. According to the developers we visited, their buyers are facing fewer obstacles in securing loans for housing as compared to those in the Klang Valley. We believe the current mass housing segment offerings meet a growing niche of Johor’s population as many of them are working in Singapore. The majority of these groups of people are likely to be in the low to mid-income segment of Singapore, rendering Singapore properties as ‘out of reach’. There are also a growing number of Singaporeans who are facing huge affordability issues, particularly when it comes to sizeable homes. However, these groups of buyers have strong purchasing power in Malaysia given that their salaries are in the favourable Singapore Dollars. We also reckon Johor is more of a first home owners market and IM’s mass housing pricings are still within their means.

Strong growth observed for homes priced below RM 500,000/unit. Strong sales were observed by affordable housing in the price range of RM250,000 to RM 500,000 followed by housing in the price range of RM200,000 to RM250,000. Funnily enough, we observe more rebates offered compared to DIBS schemes; Johor property buyers tend to favour cheaper entry points over other factors.

Shortage of student housing or apartments for rent. Student population size will grow to 16,000 upon completion of Educity over the next 3-4 years. However, Impiana, Ujana and 1 Medini Residence are the only identifiable apartments in the area which have sizeable numbers of units priced between RM300,000-RM400,000/unit (typically 1 to 2 bedroom apartment size of <1,000sf built up). According to feedback from developers, an apartment costing RM300,000/unit can fetch rentals of RM1500-RM2000/month or gross yields of 6%- 8%, which is considered healthy returns compared to Klang Valley’s 4%-6% yields for new properties. In the next few years, developers will be looking to launch smaller size units to tap onto these markets, whilst ensuring unit prices remain in the affordable zone.

Increasing incoming supply of terrace homes is not a concern, as it will be supported by organic population growth. Some maybe alarmed by Johor’s legendary high overhang rates. However, we would like to point out that the trend has flat-lined since Dec-2009, indicating demand and supply has reached a stronger equilibrium level. We expect Johor’s overhang rate to remain at these levels; much of the unsold properties are likely from the distress periods many years back.

It is all coming together. Legoland developments appear to be on track for its grand opening in Sep-2012, and tickets (including annual pass) are being sold currently. The connecting retail mall will also open at the same time. NuMED (Newcastle Medical School) has been opened since Sep-2011 and has recruited two years worth of students. Other upcoming Educity components, like Marlborough College, Trust School, University of Southampton and common facilities (e.g. stadium & sports complex), are at advance stages and delivery is likely end CY12. Major highways and interchanges (e.g. Senai-Desaru Highway, Coastal Highway and interchanges, Second Link interchanges) has improved connectivity significantly. Our travel time was reduced by 30%-50% compared to our earlier visits back in 2007-08.

Strong indications of Singaporean SMEs relocating to IM. UEMLAND’s SiLC has done very well with 91% take-ups of industrial land and ASP has hit an all time high of RM31psf vs. 2007’s RM21psf. We understand SiLC Phase 3 will be sold on a development, rather than land basis to tap onto better project returns. Meanwhile, Setia Business Park I @ Setia Eco Gardens, which achieved full take-ups before completion are also observing similar trends from. In fact, Johor industrial and commercial property sales have also stepped up since 2009.

Key issues faced by Johor developers. In Johor, all projects are subject to 40% Bumi quota and 15% discount, which is a steeper requirement compared to Selangor (30% Bumi quota and 7% discount). Based on developers’ feedbacks, ‘international’ lots or non Bumi units achieved quick take-ups. Developers can seek for release of Bumi units after 1 year of advertisement post 50% project completion. As a result, one may observe slower clearing of inventories immediately after completion. To our knowledge, East Ledang and Medini developments are not subjected to this requirement. Even so, Johor developers continue to rake in strong sales.

Developers under our coverage are upbeat on Johor. For IJMLAND, they believe FY13E Johor sales could hit historical highs of RM300m (FY12E c. RM200m); this is helpful since Penang sales will likely be softer. Other established Johor developers, like SPSETIA and MAHSING, are also reporting strong positive trends. The downward spikes observed over the last few periods are mainly due to the cyclical nature of the business and the timing of property launches, thus giving an inconsistent feature. As it stands, Johor residential projects makes up 29% and 6% of respective FY11 sales for SPSETIA and MAHSING.

UPCOMING CATALYST IN EASTERN JOHOR
IJMLAND’s Sebana Cove is a ‘windfall’ project. The project is located on the eastern side of Johor and forms a part of IM. In 2008, IJM Land had taken over Sebana Cove (1188ac) from Amcorp Properties at a price tag of RM120m (RM2.30psf). Initial plans were to develop a resort cum mixed development project with an eco theme given the existing golf course and marina. Currently, the Sebana Cove land sits above an Oil & Gas (O&G) goldmine. Since the introduction of PETRONAS’ RAPID project in Desaru/Pengerang (8000ac; RM60b investment) by PEMANDU’s Economic Transformation Programme (ETP) back in 2010, the O&G play has been heating up. This would be the second major O&G project in the area after Dialog’s (OP; TP: RM2.80) RM5b project (500ac). Newcomers have also been buying up land in the area; Gulf Asia Petroleum has bought 750ac whilst we understand China Petroleum Corp is negotiating to buy another 3000-4000ac. We understand land in the area is being transacted at c.RM5psf, meaning Sebana Cove’s pricing was a steal.

Sebana Cove has all the advantages. Besides lower land cost, Sebana Cove comes equipped with ready infrastructure. Furthermore, there are also very few developments in the area and based on our visit, it looks like housing supply is thin in the area as much of it are greenfields. Since the ETP announcement, land acquisitions in the area have been frozen and Kejora (South East Johore Development Authority) is the largest landowner; this also means IJMLand’s Sebana Cove and Tebrau Teguh’s 415ac landbank are the few known developers in the area. We also understand that the existing coastal road will be realigned and will run between Sebana Cove and PETRONAS’s RAPID lands.

Sebana Cove’s GDV too conservative? We think so. IJMLAND has guided for a project GDV of RM1.4b over 10 years. However, we reckon it is a conservative estimate at best because we believe the GDV could be as high as RM2.1b-RM2.6b; we have assumed low dense landed developments of 8 units per acre with homes being priced at RM400,000- RM 500,000/unit. Incremental impact to our RNAV is not material, while significant earnings contributions will only be from FY14 onwards given CY13 launch. Our assumed pricing is reasonable given severe shortage of housings to cater for the new O&G hub. Authorities estimate that the Desaru/Pengerang population could explode by 20x over the next 10 years to 0.5m population size. Additionally, the development will be positioned as a mid to high end resort styled living development.

Positive on Johor Property Market. Although we are bearish on the overall Malaysian property sector, we believe states like Johor will buck the trend. Our Top Pick for developers remain as UEMLAND (OP; TP: RM2.65) as it has the largest exposure in Johor (c. 50% sales from Johor) compared to the others under our coverage (<30% sales from Johor). IJMLAND (MP; TP: RM2.28) Sebana Cove project will be a catalytic one but will only kick off in CY13 even as its overall sales is expected to slow down due to softer Klang Valley and Penang sales. Although Johor sales have picked up for township developers like SPSETIA (Accept Offer@RM3.95) and MAHSING (UP; TP: RM2.05), their overall sales are still heavily driven by the softer Klang Valley market. E&O (UP; TP: RM1.49) will also be another major beneficiary given its Wellness Center @ Medini (GDV c.RM3.0b), which is a JV between E&O (50%), Khazanah Nasional (25%) and Temasek Holdings (25%). However, we believe significant sales from the project will only be from FY14 onwards as it is still in the planning stage. Our Construction Analyst remains bullish on WCT (OP; TP RM3.85) as Iskandar region will be one of key drivers of its construction order book replenishment in 2012.

SITE VISIT OBSERVATIONS
UEM Land
Nusa Bayu (Remaining GDV RM0.5b). Launched in October 2010, Nusa Bayu is a medium cost modern-styled township which is strategically located next to SiLC and has easy accessibility to the Second Link and Coastal Highway. Prices of 2-storey terraces (c.1600sf built ups) are between RM250,000-RM330,000/unit, which comes with rebates and DIBS. Take ups are only 50% and bulk of buyers is Malaysians workings in Singapore; these are lower income earning segment of Singapore. In Johor, new developments take-up rates tend to improve post delivery of the first phase. Those residing in Johor are generally cautious on ‘new’ developers given past nightmares of uncompleted projects. UEM Land is considered a ‘newcomer’ vs. the likes of KSL and SP Setia. The first phase will be delivered soon.

Nusa Idaman (Remaining GDV RMRM0.4b). The project is located next to matured townships (e.g. Bukit Indah) and the lifestyle living Horizon Hills. Since the project has been on-going since 2006, average take-ups are better than Nusa Bayu at >75% and completed phases are mostly occupied. Another key selling point is the gated and guarded precincts. Buyers are mainly a mixture of Singaporeans and Malaysians working in Singapore. The project is at its last phase of landed residentials, which are priced at RM450,000/unit (2100sf built up), and has achieved 50% take up to date.

Impiana @ East Ledang (GDV RM150m) features 244 units of 1 to 4 bedroom apartments, spanning 614sf to more than 2,100sf built ups. It is positioned as a high-end development offering gated and guarded resort styled homes. Impiana’s first phase was launched in late 3Q11 at an ASP of RM480psf and has achieved 70% take up to date. More than 50% of buyers are foreigners, although the bulk is Singaporeans. Key selling points of the project is the 5 minute driving distance to Educity, Sri KDU and R.E.A.L Kids Kindergarten, as well as, lifestyle amenities (e.g. sky lounges, tropical podium). Notably, there are very few apartments near Educity, save for Ujana @ East Ledang and 1 Medini Residence.

WCT
Medini infrastructure works are nearly done. Positively, WCT is in the midst of completing the handover documents for the infrastructure works on the 704 acres of land surrounding Medini. The total work value was RM767m comprising of the earthwork, drainage, roads pavement, water supply, sewerage works, M&E infrastructure works, and electricity sub-stations. The management reiterated that Iskandar region will be one of key drivers of its construction order book replenishment in 2012.

1 Medini Residences (GDV RM0.7b) is the only ‘pure residential play’ in Medini, meaning it enjoys a special land title; 1) no RM500k threshold for foreign buyers; 2) no Bumi units or foreign buyers’ restrictions. It features 1332 units of apartments over 2 towers with 1- 4 bedroom configurations, ranging between 720-1704sf built ups. Phase 1 was launched in early Feb-2012 with an ASP of RM450psf, and has since achieved overwhelming take-ups of 95%. Encouragingly enough, DIBS is not applicable, whilst only ‘early birds’ enjoyed rebates (which can only be enjoyed as a maintenance cost deduction post delivery of the project). Contrary to the trends of other projects we visited, we understand 70% of buyers were Malaysians (remaining are Singaporeans), of which only a small majority are working in Singapore. We have yet to impute the contribution from 1 Medini Residences in our forecast which likely to materially impact its earnings from FY13E onwards; this will be reflected in the next WCT company update. Going forward, 1 Medini Residences will provide richer margin contributions for WCT, on top of its RM3b construction order book.

IJM Land
Nusa Duta @ Perling (Remaining GDV: RM0.2b). The project is positioned to target upgraders, similar to UEMLAND’s Nusa Idaman, and is located on the other side of the matured Bukit Indah township. Another key selling point is its gated and guarded community. Since commencement in 2009, take-ups of international lots are very quick. Project managers observed many of their buyers are cash-rich and are mainly Malaysians working in Singapore. In the secondary market, 2-storey terraces and cluster homes (c.1900sf built up each) are transacted at RM350,000/unit and RM540,000/unit, respectively. Their recent launch is service apartments, D’Rich@Nusa Duta (GDV c.RM60m), which is priced at RM180,000- RM300,000/unit (c.500sf built up; ASP: RM390-450psf). So far, take ups have been encouraging with 70% take-ups of international lots.

D’Ambience @ Permas Jaya (GDV: RM270m) targets first home owners and up-graders with modern apartments priced between RM180,000-RM550,000 (513-1414sf built ups). The area is a matured one, but towards the lower income earning segment. Take-ups are encouraging with full take-ups of international lots, which mainly comprised of a healthy combination of locals and Malaysians working in Singapore. Since mid-2011 launch, ASP has increased c.20% to RM400psf. In terms of first home owners market, Suriamas@Larkin has done well over the last 10 years and is at its tail-end. Apartment units are priced at between RM100,000 - RM 500,000/unit, depending on unit size. Majority of its occupants are locals.

SP Setia
Setia Eco Cascadia (GDV RM1.5b). The project’s concept is similar to their award winning Setia Eco Garden whose target market is up-graders in an already matured residential area. More specifically, it targets up-graders from Setia Indah, which is right across Eco Cascadia. Project preview commenced in 4QCY11. Its first set of terrace homes (2 & 3 storey ranging between 2100-3000sf built up) is priced between RM550,000-RM800,000/unit, of which 70% of international lots are sold. Interestingly, there were no rebates given and DIBS were only extended to the ‘early birds’. Buyers are mainly Malaysians working in Singapore and are upgraders from Setia Indah and Setia Tropika. Notably, Setia Indah’s secondary terrace prices are being transacted at RM400,000/unit.

Setia Business Park I @ Setia Eco Garden. The project was sold out quite sometime back and the first phase is almost ready for delivery. Key selling points of the project is the 15-20 minute drive to Senai Airport. It taps onto Singaporean SMEs, which constitutes most of its buyers, looking to lower business cost. Key businesses are logistics, warehousing, E&E, food industries, medical related products, etc. Going forward, the remaining 60% of the 200ac will be mainly commercial content to support the industries within the park. Since demand is evident for light to medium industrial spaces (<10,000sf built ups), SPSETIA’s next industrial space offering is in Setia Business Park II @ Setia Tropika (262ac; GDV RM1b); the project’s first phase has hit 70% bookings since official launch in Feb-2012.




Source/Extract/Excerpts/来源/转贴/摘录: Kenanga-Research,
Publish date:16/03/12
Warren E. Buffett(沃伦•巴菲特)
Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful
别人贪婪时我恐惧, 别人恐惧时我贪婪
投资只需学好两门课: 一,是如何给企业估值,二,是如何看待股市波动
吉姆·罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)
“错过时机”胜于“搞错对象”:不会全军覆没!”
做自己熟悉的事,等到发现大好机会才投钱下去

乔治·索罗斯(George Soros)

“犯错误并没有什么好羞耻的,只有知错不改才是耻辱。”

如果操作过量,即使对市场判断正确,仍会一败涂地。

李驰(中国巴菲特)
高估期间, 卖对, 不卖也对, 买是错的。
低估期间, 买对, 不买也是对, 卖是错的。

Tan Teng Boo


There’s no such thing as defensive stocks.Every stock can be defensive depending on what price you pay for it and what value you get,
冷眼(冯时能)投资概念
“买股票就是买公司的股份,买股份就是与陌生人合股做生意”。
合股做生意,则公司股份的业绩高于一切,而股票的价值决定于盈利。
价值是本,价格是末,故公司比股市重要百倍。
曹仁超-香港股神/港股明灯
1.有智慧,不如趁势
2.止损不止盈
成功者所以成功,是因为不怕失败!失败者所以失败,是失败后不再尝试!
曾淵滄-散户明灯
每逢灾难就是机会,而是在灾难发生时贱价买股票,然后放在一边,耐性地等灾难结束
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