Saturday, March 3, 2012

A better results season (CIMB)

A better results season
Markets have gone from worried-of-being-left-behind to whining about not enough QE. Other concerns (slowdown in China’s money supply, high oil prices, Greek restructuring)get amplified in this phase. This is the opportunity to load up for trades: Trading Buy maintained.

The FSSTI is sufficiently cheap to sustain a 1H uptrend, after Europe’s LTRO blocked out banking crisis fears. Slow-growth and high oil price concerns are compensated by low valuations. Markets will only be threatened in 2H when fears about stretched balance sheets resurface. Our 1H12 FSSTI target is 3,340 (14x P/E) but end-CY12’s is lower (2,865).

Weekend Comment Mar 2: Singapore stocks may rise more as earnings improve

THE DECEMBER-QUARTER earnings season in Singapore has just ended. Disappointments were plentiful, but some analysts believe the worst may be over, and that the stock market could be poised for more gains even after the strong run-up in the last two months.

Of the more than 300 companies that announced 4Q2011 results by the end of the trading day on Feb 29, those that turned in weaker numbers outnumbered those that reported an improvement by about 1.6 to one.

Yangzijiang: Tougher outlook (DB)

Yangzijiang Shipbldg
Price at 1 Mar 2012 (SGD) 1.32
Price target - 12mth (SGD) 1.30
52-week range (SGD) 1.90 - 0.77
Tougher outlook, valuations fair; downgrading to Hold

FY11 results boosted by other income
YZJ's FY11 net income grew 35% yoy to RMB3,977m (vs. our RMB3,740m estimate and the Street’s RMB3,688m). Excluding some one-off items, net income would be more in line with our estimate. Gross gearing surged from 12% in FY10 to 62% in FY11 as working capital requirements rose, due largely to contracts with poorer payment terms. In light of the stock's recent strong performance, we feel current valuations are fair. Downside may be limited as it is trading well below its historical P/B average of 3.1x; downgrading to Hold

SUNWAY: Earnings in line; sitting on a healthy order book and unbilled sales (AM)

SUNWAY BHD
Price RM2.61
Fair Value RM2.85
52-week High/Low RM2.80/RM1.67
Earnings in line; sitting on a healthy order book and unbilled sales

• We reaffirm our HOLD rating on Sunway Bhd with our fair value raised to RM2.85/share based on a 25% discount to our revised SOP of RM3.80/share, as we roll forward our valuation to FY12F and include its Iskandar project.

It's not a long-term bull: Daryl Guppy

Business Times - 03 Mar 2012
It's not a long-term bull: Daryl Guppy
The technical analyst and trading coach notes that the Dow Jones Index does not appear to be able to get past a resistance level, and trading volume is low

By GENEVIEVE CUA
PERSONAL FINANCE EDITOR

MARKETS have been on a tear in recent weeks, and that is a relief to investors who have endured a sharply volatile ride last year.

Light at the end of the tunnel? (CIMB)

Light at the end of the tunnel?
Disappointments during the Feb results season were milder than expected, with underachievers outnumbering overachievers by only a factor of 1.6x vs. at least 3x in the past two quarters. This is good news and raises the hope that big earnings cuts are coming to an end.

We maintain our Neutral call but raise our end-2012 KLCI target from 1,520pts to 1,610pts after lifting our target basis from 12.6x P/E to 13x P/E as we lower the discount to the 3-year moving average P/E from 10% to 5% in light of the less negative earnings outlook.

Oei Hong Leong raises stake in Japan property developer IPC Corp

Millionaire businessman Oei Hong Leong has been buying shares in IPC Corp, which develops properties in Japan. On Feb 8, Oei, its largest shareholder, purchased 19.5 million shares on the open market. That increased his shareholding by 3.7% to 123.7 million shares, or 23.4% of the company.

Manu Bhaskaran: Should Asia fear another oil shock?

THE MOOD AMONG investors has improved of late. The eurozone crisis appears to be stabilising, now that Greece has avoided a messy default and the European Central Bank is providing huge amounts of liquidity to troubled banks. The US economy is also recovering, providing some support to global growth. However, oil prices have started to rise strongly, threatening to put the brakes on a recovering global economy. Brent crude oil has now moved above US$120 per barrel, reaching its highest point since May 2011, when the Arab Spring was at its peak and had raised the risk of disruption of oil supplies. Our view is that the spike in oil prices is likely to continue and could pose a significant threat to the world economy.

Asian equities: From China’s shadows, SE Asia also rises

China, China, China. Melvyn Boey heaves a huge sigh when he hears another argument why Asia’s giant economy, along with India, is likely to take more of the investor’s mind share this year than it did last year. As head of Southeast Asian equity research for Bank of America Merrill Lynch in Singapore, Boey’s job is to crow about what distinguishes the old developing Asia, symbolised by the Asean economies, from the giant new emerging Asia, symbolised by China and India. Individually, Southeast Asian markets may appear as small, boring, lower growth alternatives to dynamic high growth neighbours such as China and India, but collectively, the region provides a more steady and stable play on growth and corporate earnings, he notes.

巴菲特神奇的15%法则

巴菲特神奇的15%法则

时间:2011年11月30日 11:47:20 中财网


巴菲特在购买一家公司的股票之前,他要确保这只股票在长期内至少获得15%的年复合收益率。
毫无疑问,如果你以正确的价格来购买正确的股票,获得15%的年复合收益率是可能的。反过来,你购买了业绩很好的股票却获得较差的收益率也是可能的,因为你选择了错误的价格。大多数投资者没有意识到价格和收益是相关联的:价格越高,潜在的收益率就越低,反之亦然。

Daryl Guppy: Shanghai breakout strength continues

IN 2008, my Republican trading colleagues in the US were disgusted at the “socialisation” of US banks. The rest of us accepted the idea that some banks were “too big to fail”, and begrudgingly supported government backstopping of problem banks. It didn’t cause a collapse of the banking system, it limited economic damage during the 2008 recession and assisted with the recovery. It may not be the preferred medicine, but it was effective medicine.

巴菲特投资组合四大特征揭秘

巴菲特投资组合四大特征揭秘
作者: 来源:中国证券网 2011-12-01 11:50:08

“价值投资”的核心是以宏观经济、行业和上市公司的基本面作为关注焦点,是一种自上而下与自下而上相结合的基本面投资方法。当前价值投资主要分为两种流派,即基本面趋势法和巴菲特投资法。巴菲特构建投资组合的四大特点:

好的股票六大最基本特征

好的股票六大最基本特征
作者:来源:中国证券报·中证网  2011-12-13 10:02:00

一:属于企业生产的,可以考虑,主营业务单一,而且产销对路,具有一定竞争优势,特别是带垄断色彩的为最佳;属于科技开发研究的,应该考虑其技术力量如何,是否具备高端人才优势,有自主知识产权等等;属于其他公用事业的,应该考虑其是否存在地域局限、政策限价因素等。

成功价值投资者选股5律

成功价值投资者选股5律
2011年12月21日 10:18 来源:红周刊综合

股市巨幅波动,股价上蹿下跳。股票的真实价格几何?我曾在本刊撰文指出,买进一支股票,就是买进一项经营性资产,而股票价格取决这项经营性资产的盈利能力。只有公司的生产经营获得利润,且利润高于安全的固定收益类投资(比如国债或银行定期储蓄)所得,股票才有投资价值。因为投资股票风险较高,预期收益理应更高。

李馳《白話投資2.0》

《白話投資2.0》
内容简介
本书大部分内容与财富、投资、资产、股票、楼市等读者可能关注的财经主题密切相关,可以视为是一个市场中“混迹”多年的投资者的投资日记。
《白话投资》一书的重点基本上全部集中在谈投资。作者个人认为,一般意义上的投资活动无重大秘密可言。当然,特别大型的投资项目可能除外,而那样的项目也与一般民众无关。但非常奇怪的是,大多数人几乎宁愿相信没有内幕的投资肯定赚不到大钱,投资似乎有越神秘、越能赚钱的普遍特点。这也是大家着迷于向上市公司高管、基金经理等圈内人悄悄打听内幕的主要原因,也是大家痛恨内幕交易的主要原因。可以说,没有神秘包装过的信息是不值钱的。

索罗斯-北大北京大学光华管理学院 2009论坛

索罗斯北大演讲全文
2009年06月11日18:06

北大光华管理学院—索罗斯

索罗斯做客北大 在线观看 - 酷6视频

巴菲特股东信精华 (1997 - 1984)

巴菲特31年股东信精华
转贴: 稀土老农的博客

1、除非是特殊的情况(比如说负债比例特别高或是帐上持有重大资产未予重估),否则我们认为 “股东权益报酬率”应该是衡量管理当局表现比较合理的指针。(1977)

Upgrading our STI Target to 3,400 (CS)

01/03/12
Upgrading our STI Target to 3,400, 13% potential upside


YZJ FY11 net profit up 35% (Nomura)

Yangzijiang Shipbldg
Rating Remains Neutral
Target price Remains SGD 0.85
Closing price February 29, 2012 SGD 1.36

YZJ FY11 net profit up 35%
Yangzijiang (YZJ SP) reported a 35% y-y increase in FY11 net profit on the back of a 16% y-y increase in revenue. For 4QFY11, revenue was up 21% y-y, while net profit increased 24% y-y.

段永平投资语录归纳版

2012-01-17 15:22:10
 本文引用自卧牛《段永平投资语录归纳版》
 用了一天的时间,做了这个段永平投资语录归纳版。首先感谢加忠兄的整理收集http://nteswjq.blog.163.com/blog/static/1269981201201315324573/。大致整理了几类,整理过程也是随看随贴,大致冲着段哥说的“反复就是那几个意思”去的,并不严谨。 


  1. 巴菲特也这么说过来着:最难的事是什么事都不干
a. 芒格讲过,如果把BRK投资表现最好的10个投资拿掉的话,BRK就是个笑话。老巴尚且只有10个拿得出手的投资,我们普通人就不要太跟自己过不去了.

曹仁超料恆指17500-24000點區間徘徊

《信報視聽頻道》曹仁超料恆指17500-24000點區間徘徊

2012-0227-57金錢爆(巴菲特的繼承人生)


里昂:中国或能避免银行业危机 里昂:中国或能避免银行业危机

(新加坡彭博电)里昂证券董事总经理侯伟表示,中国国有银行可帮助中国避免银行业危机。

  侯伟认为,即便违约增加,但通过命令国有银行买下实力较弱的金融机构和为不良贷款再融资,中国或许也能够避免银行业危机。

  常驻新加坡的侯伟在前天于纽约举办的一个活动上表示,至少一年,甚至是两年内,中国都不会出现大规模贷款违约。

For Shipping Sector, More Defaults on Horizon

ASIA BUSINESS
March 2, 2012, 6:42 a.m. ET
For Shipping Sector, More Defaults on Horizon
By JOANNE CHIU And KYONG-AE CHOI

The global slowdown in the shipping industry is claiming more victims, and industry experts expect more defaults as heavy debt loads and tight financing squeeze the weaker players.

The shipping industry, often seen as a barometer of global economic health, has been hurt by high fuel costs and a slump in trade that has suppressed rates. The retreat of lending from European banks—which traditionally account for the bulk of shipping finance—has further clouded the industry's outlook.

BLT defaults on debt instruments

BLT defaults on debt instruments
(Mar 1 2012)

PT Berlian Laju Tanker (BLT), Indonesia’s largest oil and gas shipping group, said it had defaulted on six of its debt instruments.

These were both dollar-denominated debt and local currency bonds, which were due last month, according to Reuters.

MAS making miracle turnaround?

The Star Online > Business
Saturday March 3, 2012
MAS making miracle turnaround?

By B.K. SIDHU
bksidhu@thestar.com.my

IT is a RM1.09bil issue and the question bandied around is, whether it was really necessary for Malaysia Airlines (MAS) to make such huge provisions.

Or was it a strategic move to show that Malaysia Airlines (MAS) is in dire straits, only to get the unions off its back as the latter are not keen on the share swap and collaboration with AirAsia?

Bluer skies ahead for Malaysia Airlines

The Star Online > Business
Saturday March 3, 2012
Bluer skies ahead for Malaysia Airlines

A QUESTION OF BUSINESS
By P. GUNASEGARAM

Its huge losses belie a much brighter future if the right steps are taken

AT first glance, one can be excused for surmising that Malaysia Airlines is in deep trouble actually it's not. In fact a careful examination of the figures shows that it is very close to a turnaround and it needs only to tweak its revenue management to get it to show profits.

What does it take to turn MAS around?

The Star Online > Business
Friday March 2, 2012
What does it take to turn MAS around?
Friday Reflections - By B.K. Sidhu

IT is about time Malaysia Airlines (MAS) is sold, and some have even suggested that it be sold for a ringgit.

Those who love MAS will fight tooth and nail to keep it but the reality is, selling it may just be an option to hopefully end its woes.

More (good) news for containers (CIMB)

More (good) news for containers
Maersk made two important announcements recently: 1) that it is planning a US$400/teu increase on AE from April 1, and 2) that it continued to expect its liner arm to register losses in 2012. While seemingly contradictory, we think that Maersk hit the nail on the head.

Container freight rates should rebound strongly in 1H11, but rates will peak in mid-2012 and decline in 2H11 as competition returns. We maintain Trading Buy on container shipping stocks and Outperform on Pacific Basin. Our top sells are STX Pan Ocean and MISC.

Coastal : Sailing smooth and steady (Kenanga)

Coastal Contracts
OUTPERFORM ↔
Price: RM2.40
Target Price: RM3.18 ↔
Sailing smooth and steady

Coastal reported FY11 net profit of RM191.0m, which came in 5% and 1% above ours as well as the market consensus. The 4Q11 numbers were strong on a QoQ basis due largely to more vessels being delivered. Going forward, the quarterly earnings are expected to be lumpy with lower margin as it shifts its focus to the high-value vessel segment. Nonetheless, its forward earnings would remain resilient. Coastal is the cheapest oil & gas stock under our coverage based on PER prospective. We are maintaining our OUTPERFORM rating on Coastal with an unchanged TP of RM3.18/share based on 7.5x PER CY12 earnings.

KNM: Improved results but still bad (Kenanga)

KNM Group Bhd
UNDERPERFORM ↔
Price: RM0.94
Target Price: RM0.83 ↔
Improved results but still bad

KNM reported its first ever financial year loss since its listing with a full year net loss of RM83.4m. This was below our estimate of a RM65.3m net loss. Although 4Q11 revenue rose 30%, the quarter turned in a pretax loss of RM10.7m and its operating margin was at a meagre 1%. We continue to be bearish on the stock given its poor execution ability in recent years, which paints a gloomy earnings visibility. We are maintaining our view to stay away from the stock until its key projects, such as the Peterborough project, starts to kick off only. Our UNDERPERFORM rating is maintained with a TP of RM0.83/share.

Masterskill: Below expectations (Kenanga)

Masterskill Education
UNDERPERFORM ↓
Below expectations
Price: RM1.04
Target Price: RM0.94 ↓
52-week range (H) 2.47
52-week range (L) 1.02

Masterskill’s full year core net profit of RM38.1m came in below our expectations and accounted for only 83% of our full year estimate and 82% of the street’s estimate respectively. Its revenue dropped significantly by 26% yoy (RM315.7m in FY10 to RM250.2m in FY11) largely attributable to the changes in PTPTN loan scheme effective since June 2011. In tandem with that, the company has been reducing its fees for its diploma students. Net earnings dropped even further by 168% yoy while on a qoq basis, it dropped from RM5.5m in 3Q11 to a loss of RM1.6m in 4Q11 on the back of higher staff cost and higher depreciation cost incurred for the period. Moving forward, the company has taken steps to turn the company around although we feel this would take a much longer time. On the back of that, we are reducing our earnings forecast downwards from RM44.5m to RM35.0m hence arriving at a new TP of RM0.94 applying a similar PE of 11x as previously. Hence, we are downgrading our rating on the stock to an UNDERPERFORM from a MARKET PERFORM previously.

Fajarbaru: Disappointing 2Q12 (Kenanga)

Fajarbaru Builder
OUTPERFORM ↔
Price: RM0.99
Target Price: RM1.17 ↓
Disappointing 2Q12

Fajarbaru’s 1H12 net profit of RM2.8m came in way below expectations, which accounted for only 12% and 13% of ours and the street’s estimates respectively. The weaker than expected results was mainly due to the slow progress of LRT project coupled with delays in construction works for the Gleneagles project. We understand that the delays were due to the late issuance of the Development Order (D.O) which currently pending for state authority approval. We trimmed down our FY12 earnings estimates by 31% from RM23m to RM16m as we push forward the big chunk of LRT and Gleneagles contribution to FY13. However, we continue to maintain our OUTPERFROM recommendation with a lower Target Price of RM1.17 from RM1.20 previously as we rolled over our valuation to FY13, pegging the PER valuation at a lower 9x (from 10x previously).

MAS: FY11 loss higher than expected (Kenanga)

Malaysian Airlines
UNDERPERFORM ↓
FY11 loss higher than expected
Price: RM1.43
Target Price: RM1.05 ↓
52-week range (H) 1.95 / 52-week range (L) 1.23

The core net loss of RM2.0b came in higher than ours and consensus FY11 net loss of RM1.2b. The higher than expected loss was mainly due to the cost of redelivery of aircrafts of RM602m and a higher fuel cost by 33% (YoY). Our core net loss excludes of forex gain, derivative gain and impairment of aircrafts. The revenue increased marginally by 5% YoY due to higher yield/RPK but was still insufficient to cushion the increase in operating cost as well as fuel cost. Going forward, FY12 will be a very challenging year for MAS as the jet fuel price is trending higher, and has already risen 27% YTD. There also remains the high possibility of MAS incurring an additional redelivery cost of RM100m to RM200m in FY12. We have revised our core net loss higher to RM1.0b from RM241.0m as we factored in a higher operating cost and revised our FY12 jet fuel cost assumption from USD125/barrel to USD132/barrel. We are downgrading MAS to an UNDERPERFORM with a lower Target Price of RM1.05 based on 0.25x Price To Sales (PTS) valuation (34% discount to 5-year average of 0.38x). Our Target Price is also pegged at a stretched case of 3.4x PBV.

Muhibbah: FY11 results in line (Kenanga)

Muhibbah Engineering
OUTPERFORM ↔
FY11 results in line
Price: RM1.41
Target Price: RM1.97
52-week range (H) 1.91 - 52-week range (L) 0.90

Muhibbah’s FY11 net profit of RM61m came in within expectations, which accounted for 96% and 95% of ours and the consensus’ FY11 full year estimates respectively. The revenue increase of 24% was led by the construction division, which saw a revenue jump of 63% YoY. The overall pretax margin was enhanced from 2% to 6% due to margin expansion across the board. The cranes and shipyard pretax margins were at 11% and 21% respectively. Its total order book now stands at RM3.0b which could last it until 2014. The bulk of the contract value comes from the construction division at RM1.9b. We are maintaining our OUTPERFORM recommendation on Muhibbah with an unchanged Target Price of RM1.97 based on RNAV valuation. Meanwhile, we gathered that the proposed acquisition of APH is still ongoing.

Sunway:Strong property pillar (CIMB)

Sunway Bhd
Current RM2.61
Target RM2.65
Strong property pillar

Property development and investment were Sunway’s star performers and the pillars supporting its better-than-expected FY11 numbers. New jobs will flow through to construction earnings but margins are likely to remain thin. Despite a healthy cash pile, there were no dividends.

China's Big Four Banks to Boost Property Loans

China's Big Four Banks to Boost Property Loans
Published: Friday, 2 Mar 2012
China's big four state-backed banks will lend more to qualified property developers to boost entry level housing supply, a statement in the central bank's newspaper on Friday said, a signal that they are ready to ratchet up real estate lending.

2012: A Year of Crisis for Shipping Sector

Will Fed Push Oil to $200? Market Pros Debate

Buy, Sell, Hold: Wells Fargo or JP Morgan?

JPMorgan: A Bullish Play on Financials


Quantitative Easing in Store?

China state banks to boost some property loans

China state banks to boost some property loans
04:46 AM Mar 03, 2012
BEIJING - China's big four state-backed banks will lend more to qualified property developers to boost entry level housing supply, a statement in the central bank's newspaper said yesterday, a signal that they are ready to ratchet up real estate lending.

The four banks said they would accelerate loan approvals for both developers and first-time home buyers. They will also help first-time home buyers by charging them lower rates if necessary.

Friday, March 2, 2012

冷眼随笔:马熔锡阴沟里翻船

冷眼随笔:马熔锡阴沟里翻船
Created 03/02/2012 - 18:30
马熔锡(MSC)在去年12月31日财务年的第四季,每股净亏45.90仙,导致投资者惊慌抛售,股价由4.80令吉的高峰,跌至2月29日的4.15令吉,共跌14%。

该公司去年首3季每股净利108.90仙,由于去年末季锡价由每公吨3万美元高峰,跌至1万9000美元,跟踪锡价及该公司业绩的投资者,原本已有心理准备,认为第四季的每股净利,必然比第三季为低,但是,第四季不但没有盈利,反而每股净亏45.90仙,实在出乎意料之外,难怪投资者抛售该公司的股票,导致股价暴跌。

亞股進入牛市‧分析師:漲勢可延續

亞股進入牛市‧分析師:漲勢可延續
Created 03/02/2012 - 17:41

過去2年多來,在美國、歐洲、中國和日本等國的中行寬鬆政策下,亞股3月1日進入牛市。

中國第二大貨柜運輸業者中海集裝箱運輸自10月5日跌至低點後已經上漲163%,是因避免歐債危機擴散的努力和美國經濟消息改善,提高了該地區的出口展望。

韓國第三大煉油廠S-Oil隨著原油價格上漲,也帶動能源股邁向更高點;隨著通膨趨緩,中國開發商雅居樂集團上漲137%,是因市場猜測中國將減緩對房市的打壓。

上财年大亏25亿 马航今年举步艰难

上财年大亏25亿 马航今年举步艰难
Created 03/02/2012 - 11:00

(吉隆坡1日讯)马航(MAS,3786,主板贸服股)去年面临史上最大亏损,分析员相信,要在今年达收支平衡“目标艰难”,今年首季挑战大,前景不容乐观。

马航昨日公布业绩,去年全年惨亏25亿令吉,第四季也蒙受逾12亿令吉的高额净亏,亏损幅度令人咋舌。

业绩表现差,券商纷纷看淡前景,股价也连带走低,马航今日股价面对卖压,全日呈下跌走势,闭市报1.38令吉,跌5仙,或3.5%。

分析员:业绩低预期 大马散装货运盈利看淡

分析员:业绩低预期 大马散装货运盈利看淡
Created 03/02/2012 - 11:45

(吉隆坡1日讯)分析员认为,2011业绩低于市场预期的大马散装货运(Maybulk,5077,主板贸服股),在2012财年,一路仍然颠簸。

大马散装货运截至2011年12月31日财年全年净利,按年挫61.7%,录得9130万9000令吉,上财年全年为2亿3836万8000令吉;全年营业额则报2亿5630万9000令吉,较2010财年的4亿425万令吉下滑36.6%。

各國中行撒錢救市‧小心自爆

各國中行撒錢救市‧小心自爆
Created 03/02/2012 - 17:45

(美國‧紐約2日訊)自2008年金融海嘯以來,世界各國中行透過降息、收購公債、提供銀行低廉貸款、吸收高風險資產等少見措施,呵護國際金融系統。各國中行從未在全球金融系統撒下這麼多錢。

過去3年半以來,包括美國、英國、日本和歐元區17國的中行大舉注資,資產負債表合計膨脹到8.76兆美元,是有史以來最高紀錄。

国内外购地发展综合产业 UEM置地拓展首选东马

国内外购地发展综合产业 UEM置地拓展首选东马
Created 03/02/2012 - 19:02

(吉隆坡2日讯)UEM置地控股(UEMLand,5148,主板产业股)准备在今年于东马和东南亚地区购地,扩大发展版图。

UEM置地控股董事经理兼总执行长拿督万阿都拉万依布拉欣透露,该集团将往东马发展,目前已和当地的地主进一步讨论购地细节。

游資推動‧基本面未變‧馬股3月挑戰歷來新高

游資推動‧基本面未變‧馬股3月挑戰歷來新高
Created 03/02/2012 - 09:41

(吉隆坡1日訊)隨著馬股在今年2月份意外勁揚3.2%,分析員認為,從技術層面來看,短期馬股走勢卻仍有揚升空間,有望重叩1597點的歷史高峰,惟由於這一波漲勢由游資推動,缺乏基本因素支撐,接下來仍有向下調整風險。

僑丰研究指出,馬股進入3月份,全球市場仍然受到不明朗因素干擾,包括美國房屋價格持續下跌,歐元區經濟幾乎肯定陷入衰退,希臘評級再度調降至選擇性違約等級等利空,這使馬股仍有下跌回調空間。

第四季業績改善‧最糟或已過去‧今年企業盈利料續增強

第四季業績改善‧最糟或已過去‧今年企業盈利料續增強
Created 03/02/2012 - 17:45

(吉隆坡2日訊)上市公司交出的2011年第四季成績單普遍符預期,雖然部份業績令人失望,但整體上盈利表現已有所改善,預計今年盈利成長最高可達16%,惟接下來最受關注的是國內企業能否有能力維持強穩的盈利走勢。

非綜指股業績令人失望

Billionaire sells Seadrill shares to buy ships

Business Times - 02 Mar 2012
Billionaire sells Seadrill shares to buy ships

(LONDON) Billionaire John Fredriksen will use the proceeds from selling shares of oil-rig operator Seadrill Ltd to buy new ships worth as much as US$3 billion, Arctic Securities said.

Mr Fredriksen plans to sell as many as 24 million shares in Seadrill through his stake in Hemen Holding, raising about 5.6 billion Norwegian kroner (S$1.3 billion), according to a statement on Wednesday. That will free up money to 'increase firepower for shipping acquisitions', Oslo-based investment bank Arctic said in a note yesterday.

Baltic index hits 25-year low amid vessel glut

Business Times - 02 Mar 2012
Baltic index hits 25-year low amid vessel glut

(LONDON) The Baltic Dry Index, a measure of costs to ship dry-bulk commodities, fell to the lowest monthly average in more than 25 years as a glut of vessels weighed on freight rates.

The index averaged 701 in February, the lowest level since August 1986, according to the London- based Baltic Exchange.

Turnaround an uphill task for NOL

Business Times - 02 Mar 2012
Turnaround an uphill task for NOL
By LYNN KAN

HE has barely warmed his seat at the highest echelons of Neptune Orient Lines (NOL), but it is already plenty sizzling for Ng Yat Chung, a former military man who took over the reins of the Temasek Holdings-owned shipping company on Oct 1 last year.

Last week, NOL reported staggering losses of US$478 million for financial year 2011. Mr Ng's first quarter at the helm also coincided with NOL's worst quarterly loss of US$320 million.

Raffles Edu unit to divest four land parcels

Business Times - 02 Mar 2012
Raffles Edu unit to divest four land parcels
By CARINE LEE

RAFFLES Education Corporation Limited yesterday announced that its subsidiary, Hebei Oriental Zhuyun Property Development Co Ltd, will be divesting four land parcels in the Langfang Development Zone of China's Hebei province for 1.05 billion yuan (S$208 million).

Yangzijiang Q4 profit up 24% at 1b yuan

Business Times - 02 Mar 2012
Yangzijiang Q4 profit up 24% at 1b yuan
For the full year, profit jumps 35% to record 3.98b yuan
By LYNETTE KHOO

YANGZIJIANG Shipbuilding ended 2011 on a high note, posting an all-time high in net profits for the fourth quarter and full year ended Dec 31.

Is the tide turning? (KE)

Is the tide turning? –
Despite posting disappointing FY11 results, the share price of Neptune Orient Lines (NOL) has staged a strong recovery in the past two days on positive newsflow that Mediterranean Shipping (MSC) is following Maersk Line to announce a second rate hike this year of US$400/TEU on the westbound leg of the Asia-Europe trade. We understand that MSC’s proposed hike in April will apply to all cargo from Asia to northern Europe, Scandinavia, the Baltic Sea, the Western and Eastern Mediterranean, the Black Sea and North Africa. In our view, the latest move by the world’s two largest carriers is expected to trigger similar responses from rival lines, which are also seeking to raise rates as the industry strives to stem losses on the back of stubbornly high bunker prices.

曾淵滄專欄 2012 03 02: 裂口阻力大續浮沉

裂口阻力大續浮沉
恒指昨收報 21387點,一個星期前的星期四,恒指是 21381點。過去一星期,恒指升升跌跌,最後走回原位,仍在我於前一陣子所說的去年 8月 5日所創出的裂口中浮沉,裂口位的阻力的確很強。

YTL Power: 2Q12 sees disappointing dividends (Kenanga)

YTL Power Int’l
MARKET PERFORM ↔
Price: RM1.90
Target Price: RM1.82 ↓
2Q12 sees disappointing dividends

YTL Power International’s (YTLPOWR) 1H12 core earnings of RM560m was broadly in line. Overall earnings improved on the back of better Malaysian IPP and Seraya contributions, resulting in 1H12 core bottom line growth of 5% YoY. This helped to offset the higher than expected start-up losses from YES. On a negative point, 2Q12 NDPS is a record low of 0.94 sen (1H12: 2.81sen), which means they are unlikely to meet our FY12E NDPS of 8.50 sen (4.5% yield). We still believe the group is looking to expand aggressively overseas. We are lowering our FY12-13E core earnings by 3% each. FY12-13E NDPS is reduced by 12% to 7.50sen (3.9% yield). We are also reducing our TP to RM1.82 on FY12E target yield of 4.1%, or a 26% discount to our FD SoP of RM2.46 (previously TP of RM1.85 on FY12E target yield of 4.6%). Although dividends yields are unappealing, the stock is trading at trough levels of FY12-13E PBV of 1.5x- 1.3x and PER of 11x-10x. The group can surprise on the upside as we believe they are on an aggressive acquisition mode. Reiterate Market Perform.

ECS ICT : Focus on higher margin division (Kenanga)

ECS ICT Berhad
OUTPERFORM ↔
Price: RM1.50
Target Price: RM1.66 ↑
Focus on higher margin division

We attended the company’s analyst briefing post FY11 results release and came back with more convictions on the company’s outlook. We believe the company is on the right track in moving into higher stage by focusing on higher margin products as well as better product mix. Reflecting the stronger outlook, we are upgrading our net profit forecasts to RM32.7m-RM34.2m for FY12E and FY13E respectively. Hence, our target price as increased to RM1.66, based on revised FY12 EPS and higher forward PER of 6.1x (+2 SD above its mean).

UOA : FY11 dividend surprise (Kenanga)

UOA Development
OUTPERFORM ↔
Price: RM1.51
Target Price: RM1.65 ↔
FY11 dividend surprise

UOA Development’s (UOA) FY11 core net profit of RM194m was below the street’s but within our expectations. Ongoing projects like Bangsar South developments and Setapak Green has buoyed earnings by 93% YoY. However, 4Q11 core earnings dipped 40% QoQ to RM36m because of a QoQ decline in the top line as Kepong Business Park took a longer than expected time to sell. On the positive side, the first and final NDPA of 10.0sen (6.6% yield) beat our estimated 3.6 sen while its yield is also the highest among developers under our coverage of large retail REITs. There is a slight tweak to FY12E net profit of RM269m for housekeeping purposes while our TP is unchanged at RM1.65 based on a 52% discount* to the FD SoP RNAV of RM3.46. The resulting discount is the highest among developers under our coverage but even so, the TP has a good upside and we are expecting the group's products to buck the bearish property trend. We also believe the anticipation of continuous strong dividend payouts will lend strength to the stock. Maintain OUTPERFORM.

Choo Yeow Ming sold 5 mln IPC shares (Limtan)

Choo Yeow Ming sold 5 mln IPC (18.9 cents, down 1) shares on Wednesday Feb 29th when the stock traded at 19.7-20.5 cents, thus ceasing to be a substantial shareholder with a 4.77% stake. The sold shares represent 16% of the 30 mln shares Choo bought from the Ngiam brothers at 18 cents each only 2 days before! (The Ngiams placed out a total of 40 mln shares, of which the remaining 10 mln shares went to a Carol Sim Siew Tin.)

4Q11 results wrap-up: Broadly in line but mixed guidance (UOBKH)

Strategy – Singapore
4Q11 results wrap-up: Broadly in line but mixed guidance

4Q11 results were broadly in line. 63% of the results were in line and only 6% surprised on the upside. We retain our selective view on the market and would accumulate on weakness.

Yangzijiang: Q4 profit up 24% at 1b yuan (AM)

Yangzijiang:
Q4 profit up 24% at 1b yuan

For the full year, profit jumps 35% to record 3.98b yuan

Yangzijiang Shipbuilding ended 2011 on a high note, posting an all-time high in net profits for the fourth quarter and full year ended Dec 31.

Pacific Basin: Facing challenges head on (CIMB)

Pacific Basin Shipping
Current HK$4.04
Target HK$5.00
Facing challenges head on

PB’s 2011 core net profit was 9% above our forecast as a weaker-than-expected bulk shipping profit was offset by a strong 2H rebound intowage earnings and lower miscellaneous costs.Prevailing spot rates are likely loss-making for PBbut rates are rebounding quickly.

龙筹股市场需要时间回归正确估值

龙筹股市场需要时间回归正确估值
沃得精机首席执行长邵建军

在本地上市的中国公司曾经引发市场热情,但接连爆发企业监管问题事件后,打击了投资者对龙筹股的信心,这股热情也逐渐消退。

  最近天宇集团事件闹得沸沸扬扬,使得龙筹股更少人问津,一些甚至没有了多少交易量,只有少数重量级如中远投资、扬子江船业、仁恒置地等交投依旧热烈。

苹果市值能否保持得住?

(纽约彭博电)苹果公司(Apple)总市值首度突破5000亿美元(6262亿新元),不但巩固其作为全球最有价值企业的地位,上次经济衰退以来也没有一家企业能够达到这种市值水平。不过,这家iPhone和iPad生产商如今面临的最大挑战可能就是如何将这种局面保持下去。

  苹果29日上涨1.3%,报542.44美元,市值达到5058亿美元。该公司2012年至今上涨34%,过去三年每年都上涨。比起全球市值第二高的公司艾克森美孚,苹果市值多出981亿美元。

China Taisan: Slight qoq improvement (CIMB)

China Taisan Technology
Hurt by intensifying competition
HOLD; TP:S$0.108
Price @29/01/12: S$0.117
52-week range (SGD):0.082-0.185

Slight qoq improvement
• 4Q11 slightly stronger compared to 3Q11. The Group posted an increase of 26.5% higher revenue, and 52.3% higher net profit in 4Q11 vs. 3Q11. However, results on a yoy basis were disappointing with a yoy decrease of 50.1% in revenue and a 80.9% fall in net profit for 4Q11. This was caused by steep raw material prices, resulting lower gross margins and a reduction in customer orders due to intensifying competition from peers. As a result, performance fabric ASPs fell by 29.8% yoy from RMB 60,700 per tonne to RMB 42,600 per tonne from FY10 to FY11. Sales quantity decreased by 14.7% yoy from 22,373 tonnes to 19,093 tonnes in FY11.

MAS: Walking a tight rope (AM)

MALAYSIAN AIRLINE
Price RM1.37
Fair Value RM1.25
52-week High/Low RM1.90/RM1.28
Walking a tight rope

• We maintain our HOLD rating on Malaysia Airlines (MAS) with an unchanged fair value of RM1.25/share, following the release of its 4Q11 results. Our valuation continues to peg MAS at 0.9x FY12F book value of RM1.38/share.

Construction-industry-faces-labour-crunch-following-stricter-rules


MAS eyes RM6b capital expenditure

The Star Online > Business
Friday March 2, 2012
MAS eyes RM6b capital expenditure
Carrier to take delivery of 23 planes this year

By B.K. SIDHU
bksidhu@thestar.com.my

PETALING JAYA: Malaysia Airlines (MAS) is staring at a capital expenditure (capex) of RM6bil this year and RM3.5bil for 2013 because of the aircraft deliveries that have been lined up for this year and next.

Perennial China Retail Trust: Portfolio ramping up (DBSV)

Perennial China Retail Trust
Portfolio ramping up
BUY S$0.525
Price Target : S$ 0.83

• Results in line with our estimates and prospectus forecast
• Ramping up completed portfolio and operational activities gaining traction
• Maintain Buy and S$0.83 TP

KNM: Residual 4QFY11 provisions as expected (AM)

KNM GROUP
Price RM0.94
Fair Value RM0.75
52-week High/Low RM2.92/RM0.87
Residual 4QFY11 provisions as expected

Investment Highlights
• We maintain SELL on KNM Group with an unchanged fair value of RM0.75/share pegged to an FY12F PE of 10x – a 30% discount to the oil & gas sector’s 15x.

Masterskill: A String of Misfortunes (OSK)

Masterskill Education Group
A String of Misfortunes
SELL 
Price RM1.04
Fair Value RM0.84
Previous RM0.99

. Masterskill’s FY11 net profit of RM38.1m was way below consensus and our forecasts, only making up 82.0% of both full-year estimates. The company sank into the red in 4QFY11 as enrolment weakened and operating and depreciation expenses went up. We cut our FY12 earnings estimate further by 2.8% as we turn increasingly cautious on potentially weaker enrolment growth on stiff competition. Maintain SELL. Our FV is now RM0.84, based 7x FY12 PER.

Sunway: Property boost (MIB)

Sunway Berhad
Hold (unchanged)
Share price: RM2.61
Target price: RM2.62 (from RM2.28)
Property boost

Above expectations. Sunway’s 2011 core net profit of RM325.6m came in above our expectations but within consensus estimates. We believe the earnings gap was largely due to stronger-than-expected progress billings from the property division and a faster-than-expected turnaround in Sunway Putra Place (via SunREIT). We tweak our earnings forecasts by +1-3%. Our new target price is RM2.62 based on a 40% discount to RNAV. Hold.

Still Positive on China Markets

Apple Co-Founder Calls $1000 Apple

Oil: Buy or Sell?

Construction sector faces labour crunch

Construction sector faces labour crunch
Stricter foreign worker quota to affect industry
by Wong Siew Ying 04:46 AM Mar 02, 2012
SINGAPORE - The Singapore construction industry is facing a labour crunch with the stricter foreign manpower quota, even as the pipeline of projects remains strong.

China curbs drag home prices down further

China curbs drag home prices down further
04:46 AM Mar 02, 2012
SHANGHAI - China's home prices for last month posted the biggest decline in 19 months as the government pledged to maintain curbs on property, according to SouFun Holdings, the nation's biggest real-estate portal.

And market watchers expect prices to continue to fall, with no signs of the curbs easing in sight.

MAS may make cash call

MAS may make cash call
By Bilqis Bahari bt@nstp.com.my
2012/03/02

KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysian Airline System Bhd (MAS) might ask its shareholders to pump in more money into the company via a cash call exercise, analysts speculated yesterday.

Among the national carrier’s biggest shareholders are the government-linked Khazanah Nasional Bhd and the Employees Provident Fund.

Thursday, March 1, 2012

虧損高於預測 馬航前景嚴峻

虧損高於預測 馬航前景嚴峻
(吉隆坡1日訊)受到高油價和一次性的撥備減值影響,馬航(MAS,3786,主板貿服股)2011財政年虧損高於預測,市場認為今年仍是馬航嚴峻的一年,看淡前景。

馬航2011財政年業績令市場失望,股價今日承受賣壓,一度跌5%,閉市時跌5仙或3.497%,收在1.38令吉。

馬航全年淨虧損達到25億令吉,馬銀行投行分析員表示,這是馬航歷史上最大的一筆虧損。

福布斯:大馬40富豪財富增3.7%‧郭鶴年、阿南達、李金花列三甲

福布斯:大馬40富豪財富增3.7%‧郭鶴年、阿南達、李金花列三甲
Created 03/01/2012 - 17:44

(吉隆坡1日訊)《福布斯》公佈,2011年大馬40大富豪的身家比前年增加23億美元或3.7%,達644億美元,整體而言,多數富豪的財富變化不大。

40大富豪
總身家644億美元

郭鶴年穩坐榜首,財富由125億美元小跌至124億美元。自《福布斯》在2006年發佈大馬富豪榜以來,88歲的郭鶴年就以龐大的白糖、棕油、船運和房地產商業王國,穩守冠軍寶座多年。

S-Reits still tops in Asia cross-border acquisitions

Business Times - 01 Mar 2012
S-Reits still tops in Asia cross-border acquisitions
Their purchases last year totalled $2.51b, says CBRE report
By AMANDA EBER

REAL estate investment trusts (Reits) from Singapore continue to dominate cross-border acquisitions in Asia, with 17 out of 26 Singapore Reits (S-Reits) active overseas.

S-Reits transacted cross-border acquisitions worth a total of $2.51 billion in 2011.

Starhill-Toshin rent case goes to Court of Appeal

Business Times - 01 Mar 2012
Starhill-Toshin rent case goes to Court of Appeal
Independence of valuers is the bone of contention
By GRACE LEONG

A DISPUTE between Starhill Global Reit and its master tenant in Ngee Ann City over whether a process used to set retail rents is still operable has gone before the Singapore Court of Appeal.

Maybank picks affordable stocks with good payouts

Business Times - 01 Mar 2012
Maybank picks affordable stocks with good payouts
All six yield at least 5.5% including UE, QAF, Orchard Parade

LIKE bite-sized chocolates, small and mid-cap stocks that yield generous dividends can offer affordable comfort in tough times, researchers at Maybank Kim Eng wrote in a note yesterday.

Yangzijiang: Results in-line with expectations (DMG)

YANGZIJIANG SHIPBUILDING
SELL
Price S$1.36
Previous S$1.04
Target S$1.04

Results in-line with expectations
Earnings boosted by higher shipbuilding revenue and margins. Yangzijiang (YZJ)’s 4Q11 net profit of RMB1.037b (+24% YoY, +2% QoQ) was in-line with our estimate (RMB1.03b) but 38% ahead of street estimates (RMB748m). FY11 net profit of RMB4b (+25% YoY) is a new record. The strong 4Q11 results were driven by higher shipbuilding revenue (+21% YoY) and higher shipbuilding gross margin of 26% vs. 21% in 4Q10. Other key highlights: (1) Gross order book as of 31 Dec 2011 stood at 100 vessels with a total value of US$4.7b. Backlog is down from a peak of US$7.4b in 2Q08. YTD 2012, YZJ has secured US$206m new orders for seven vessels. (2) Income from HTM investments and micro-financing accounted for 21% of FY11 PBT. (3) In 4Q11, YZJ reported a RMB367m gain from delivery of US$/RMB forward contracts but this is offset by a RMB554m provision for impairment loss on HTM investments. (4) YZJ proposed a final dividend of 5.5S¢, which was slightly below our estimate of 6S¢.

Yongnam: No let up in steam (DBSV)

Yongnam Holdings Ltd
No let up in steam
BUY S$0.255
Price Target : S$ 0.32 (Prev S$ 0.31)

• Another record year for earnings and dividends
• Secured 65% of FY12F revenues with current orderbook
• New order win outlook remains bright; maintain BUY with revised TP of S$0.32

MAS: Wings clipped by high fuel prices (Hwang)

Malaysian Airlines
Wings clipped by high fuel prices
FULLY VALUED RM1.43
Price Target : RM 1.10

• 4Q11 continued to disappoint
• Balance sheet stretched; net gearing might surpass current 4.4x
• Maintain Fully Valued and RM1.10 TP

Maybulk: Struggling With Sinking Rates (OSK)

Malaysian Bulk Carriers
SELL 
Price RM1.75
Fair Value RM1.60
Previous RM1.54
52 week H | L Price 2.89 1.39
Struggling With Sinking Rates

Maybulk’s FY11 core earnings of RM103.4m were 18% below our estimates but within consensus, with revenue in line. The lower profit was in tandem with the lower time charter earnings (TCE) at its dry bulk division on the back of high bunkering costs. In view of the lower rates for Panamaxes, we expect revenue to drop 14.7% in FY12. We maintain our revenue forecast but cut our FY12 and FY13 earnings numbers by 13% and 7% on persistent pressure on bunker fuel. We maintain our SELL call, but at higher fair value of RM1.60, premised on a 0.85x FY12 P/B, due to the lower estimated dividend (down from 8 sen to 3 sen for FY12).

Salcon: 2011 RESULTS REPORT (NRA)

Salcon Berhad
Current Price : RM 0.52
Target Price: RM 0.75

• Reported net profit jumped by 261.6% to RM5.6 in 4QFY11 on the back of a 19.3% increase in turnover.

Muhibbah:A leap year (CIMB)

Muhibbah Engineering
Current RM1.41
Target RM1.60
A leap year

Muhibbah’s FY11 core earnings missed expectations despite surging 86%. But the earnings miss is not a worry as new jobs secured should drive construction EBIT margin higher in FY12 while cranes, shipyard and concessions stay the key drivers.

Sunway: Record property sales (Hwang)

Sunway Berhad
Record property sales
BUY RM2.61
Price Target : RM 3.30

• 4Q11 net profit of RM99m was just ahead of our and consensus’ expectations
• Earnings driven by property investment division due to year-end holidays
• Maintain Buy; RM3.30 TP implies 26% upside

Midas Holdings: Look to the future (OCBC)

Midas Holdings’ (Midas) FY11 results were within our expectations. The 22.2% decline in PATMI to RMB187.4m was attributed to higher operating expenses, finance costs and further exacerbated by a sharp 81.9% plunge in contribution from its associate. A final dividend of 0.5 S cents was declared (total FY11 DPS: 1 S cent), in line with our expectations. Outstanding order book stands at ~RMB800m. While near-term weakness should still persist, there are increasing signs that China’s Ministry of Railways could resume the tendering of high-speed rail contracts and vehicle procurements again soon. Hence we ascribe a higher target peg of 11x (previously 9x) to Midas’ FY12F EPS, in line with the average forward PER of its industry peers. This raises our fair value estimate from S$0.31 to S$0.39. Maintain HOLD.

NOL: Cost Consciousness (MS)

Neptune Orient Lines
Shr price, close (Feb 27, 2012) S$1.33
52-Week Range S$2.13-0.98
Cost Consciousness Takes Hold
Quick Comment: We hosted an investor’s luncheon with NOL management (Mr. Ng Yat Chung, Group CEO, Mr. Cedric Foo, Group CFO and Mr. Au Kah Soon, Manager, IR) today. Key takeaways include:

Aiming to be top quartile in terms of cost competitiveness: Double whammy from bunker prices at ~US$700/ton and capacity oversupply makes NOL‘s focus on cost reduction (US$500mn in FY12) a welcome move. These savings would be recurrent in nature, largely relating to bunker.

Noble: Net profit to rebound 63% in 2012 (UOBKH)

Noble Group
Share Price S$1.38
Target Price S$1.80
Upside +30.9%
(Previous TP S$1.20)
Results
• Net profit of US$431m was in line with consensus expectations but 6.4% below ours. Excluding gains of supply chain assets and dividends due to perpetual securities, adjusted net profit declined 64% yoy to US$77m. Management highlighted that the group had navigated 2011 well given that they experienced six 3-sigma (one in two years occurrence) and five 4-sigma (one in 120 years occurrence) events within the year.

Noble Group Ltd: HOLD – still lacks catalyst (OCBC)

Noble Group (Noble) reported better performance in 4Q11, suggesting that the worst is likely over. For FY11, revenue jumped 42% to US$80,732m, or 0.4% above our forecast, while reported net profit slipped 29% to US$431m, it was around 13% above our forecast. However, we note that there could still be a dearth of near-term catalyst. While Noble revealed that it expects some development on the Gloucester-Yancoal merger front next week, management does not expect any deal to take place in 1Q12. Management also did not elaborate much on its planned listing of its Agri-business on SGX other than saying it has a new CEO for that division. While we are increasing our valuation peg from 10.5x (one standard deviation below 5-year mean) to 11.1x (0.5 SD), a lower USD/SGD assumption negates the increase, thus maintaining our fair value at S$1.46. Given the limited upside for now, we maintain our HOLD rating. We would be buyers closer to S$1.30. (Carey

伯南克没暗示推QE3 美联储:经济温和扩张

伯南克没暗示推QE3 美联储:经济温和扩张
Created 03/01/2012 - 17:04
(华盛顿1日讯)美国联邦储备局主席伯南克指出,除非经济增长加速,否则失业率不可能持续下跌,但是没有暗示会推出新一轮量化宽松措施(QE3)。

同时,联储局发表的最新一份《褐皮书》指出,过去2月的经济呈现温和扩张。

伯南克在国会众议院向一个委员会指出,虽然失业率有所回落,但美国就业市场离正常水平仍有很远的距离;假若要让失业率得到改善,美国的本土需求及生产必需有强劲增长。

油價漲33%拖累‧末季由盈轉虧‧馬航全年虧25億

油價漲33%拖累‧末季由盈轉虧‧馬航全年虧25億
Created 03/01/2012 - 08:27
(吉隆坡29日訊)歸咎於高飛機歸還,飛機減值和過期存貨撥備,馬航(MAS,3786,主板貿服組)截至2011年12月31日止第四季由盈轉虧,面對12億7千738萬4千令吉淨虧損,前期還取得凈利2億2千591萬8千令吉。

全年淨虧損則惡化至25億2千398萬8千令吉淨虧損,前期還取得凈利2億3千446萬9千令吉淨利。

第四季營業額成長0.24%至36億7千817萬6千令吉,全年營業額成長2.32%至139億零142萬1千令吉。

Noble: Managing volatility (DBSV)

Noble Group
HOLD S$1.38
Price Target : 12-Month S$ 1.45
Managing volatility
• Profit recovered as expected, but 4Q11 earnings of US$72.2m (ex exceptionals) was below
• Energy and MMO underperformed, Agriculture came in line
• FY12-14F earnings cut by 11-23% on lower operating margin/MT assumptions • TP cut to US$1.11 from US$1.25 but expectations of a weaker SGD keep TP at S$1.45; retain HOLD

Chip Eng Seng: Armed with financial muscle to pursue new business strategy and ventures (NRA)

Chip Eng Seng Corporation Ltd
Current Price S$0.480 29 February 2012
Fair Value S$0.565

Armed with financial muscle to pursue new business strategy and ventures
 FY11 result is above our expectations due to cost savings from the construction arm. FY11 net profit declined 29% YoY to $123.7m, above our expectations of $96.3m, largely due to costs savings at the construction arm ensuing from better project management and value-added engineering on past projects including in-house projects, Oasis @Elias and CityVista Residences as well as HDB projects. The property development arm contributed less in FY11, largely from the progressive profit recognition of Oasis@Elias (TOP : 3QFY11) and My Manhattan (43% sold) as well as the completion of smaller-scale project, Grange Infinite, at associate level. Management declared a proposed dividend per share of 4 Scts in FY11 which is above our expectations of 3 Scts per share.

MAS: Provisions spoilt the smooth landing (MIB)

Malaysian Airline System
Hold (unchanged)
Share price: RM1.43
Target price: RM1.55 (unchanged)
Provisions spoilt the smooth landing

Provisions, impairment and one-off charges. The 2011 reported net loss of RM2,521m was the biggest in MAS’ history. However, stripping out RM1,258m for provisions, impairment and stock obsolescence, the core net loss was RM1,263m (+301% YoY). This was 4% better than our full-year forecast and 4% lower than consensus. We maintain our Hold call with a target price of RM1.55, pegged to 6.0x 2012 adjusted EV/EBITDAR – on par with Asia Pacific airline peers.

S-Reit今年将积极开拓海外资产

为寻求在新加坡以外的增长以及分散风险,本地房地产投资信托(S-Reit)过去两年在海外市场的投资额达到20亿元以上,它们今年预计将继续积极在海外购入新资产,不过将较为选择性买下有助提高整体收益率的房产。

  世邦魏理仕(CBRE)在一份研究报告中指出,投资者已经开始对房地产投资信托在本地收购低收益率房地产表示关注。由于在本地购入房地产可能将进一步降低派发率,促使房地产投资信托持续在海外寻求可带动收入与收益率提高的资产。

曾淵滄專欄 2012 03 01: 兩愛股主席齊退下

兩愛股主席齊退下
昨日有兩隻藍籌股在公佈業績的同時,宣佈主席退休,分別為新世界發展( 017)的鄭裕彤,以及港交所( 388)的夏佳理。
通知發出後,新世界發展及與鄭裕彤有關的股票股價全部急跌,新世界發展股價由約 10.6元一口氣跌至 10.12元,跌幅達 4.5%,幸好收市前反彈,最後以 10.68元收市,港交所也一樣在一輪急跌之後又急急回升,收市時回穩。

Jim Rogers: I Don't Own Any U.S. Equities


Parkway Life REIT: Acquisitions in Japan and Malaysia (UOBKH)

Parkway Life REIT
Share Price S$1.78
Target Price S$2.05
Upside +15.2%
(Previous TP S$2.00)

Acquisitions in Japan and Malaysia
What’s New
• Acquisitions in Japan and Malaysia. ParkwayLife REIT (PREIT) announced the acquisition of three nursing home properties in Japan for ¥3b (S$50m) and strata units in the Gleneagles Medical Centre, Kuala Lumpur (GMCKL), Malaysia for RM$16m (S$6.5m). The S$56.5m in acquisitions represents a 4.1% increase in PREIT’s portfolio.

HSBC: Retain relative preference Limited absolute upside (Nomura)

HSBC Holdings plc
Relative rating Remains Buy
Target price Reduced from 725 650p
Closing price February 27, 2012 554p
Potential upside +17.3%

Retain relative preference Limited absolute upside, but still justifies relative preference in a difficult sector

Trends were similar to expectations and resilient by sector standards
Trends were similar to expectations and resilient by sector standards, if still hardly inspiring in absolute terms. We estimate results were equivalent to underlying EPS of USD 0.80 (50p) and an RoTE of 11%. Despite management confirming its 2013 Cost/ Income target of 48-52%, it accepted that the cost/income ratio objective would be ‘heroic’ and we also regard the RoE target as demanding.

Boustead: ASEAN All-Access: Singapore - Takeaway (Nomura)

Boustead
ASEAN All-Access: Singapore – Takeaway

We hosted Mr. Keith Chu, VP Investor Relations of Boustead Singapore (BOCS SP) at Nomura’s ASEAN All Access conference. Boustead Singapore currently operates 5 different industries across the world. On the whole, management presented a picture of a company on the cusp of turning around. We do not have a rating on the company.

Genting Malaysia: 4Q FY11 earnings ahead of estimates (Nomura)

Genting Malaysia Bhd
Rating Remains Buy
Target price Remains MYR 4.51
Closing price February 28, 2012 MYR 3.80
4Q FY11 earnings ahead of estimates

Above expectations
Reported FY11 earnings came in slightly above our forecasts (103% of full-year estimates) and below consensus (96%). EBITDA came in below both our and consensus expectations (87% and 90%, respectively). The top performer was its UK operation, which registered a 26% y-y jump in revenue in 4Q.

Golden Agri Resources: Just a tick lower (DMG)

Golden Agri Resources: Just a tick lower
(BUY, S$0.75, TP S$0.97)
We are maintaining Golden Agri as a Buy, with a fair value of SGD0.97. Golden Agri remains a core stock for plantation sector exposure, having the largest oil palm hectarage in Indonesia. Although the FY11 results were a little below consensus, we doubt that there would be much selling pressure due to the quantum of shortfall, while the group’s record dividend payout may
cushion the selling pressure. We are encouraged by the positive production growth outlook, which supports our thought that palm oil will be in abundance this year.

Padini: Selling like hotcakes (Hwang)

Padini Holdings
Selling like hotcakes
BUY RM1.33
Price Target : RM 1.45 (Prev RM 1.40)
• 6MFY12 earnings beat expectations; declares 2sen net DPS, implying 46% quarterly payout
• Brands Outlets to drive FY12-14F growth, boosted by mega sales; FY12-14F earnings nudged up 3-4%
• Maintain Buy; TP nudged up to RM1.45

Press Metal : Phase 2 swinging into motion (AM)

PRESS METAL BHD
Price RM1.92
Fair Value RM2.63
52-week High/Low RM2.69/RM1.44
Phase 2 swinging into motion

Investment Highlights
• Maintain BUY on Press Metal on a lower fair value of RM2.63/share based on an unchanged target PE of 13x, factoring a more conservative pricing assumption on an evolving global macro situation. But, we remain bullish with Press Metal’s transformational growth prospects as the largest integrated aluminium producer in the ASEAN region with an expanded capacity of 360,000.

KNM: Smaller operating losses (Hwang)

KNM Group
Smaller operating losses
FULLY VALUED RM0.94
Price Target : RM 0.70

• 4Q11 earnings beat expectations
• Uncertain outlook due to sluggish EU economy and poor project execution
• Maintain Fully Valued rating and RM0.70 TP

Landmarks: More clarity on Treasure Bay (Hwang)

Landmarks Berhad
More clarity on Treasure Bay
BUY RM1.08
Price Target : RM 2.45 (Prev: RM3.55)

• 4Q11’s RM3.1m net loss was worse-than-expected, despite the year-end holiday season
• More clarity given on its Treasure Bay development
• Maintain Buy with revised RM2.45 TP pegged to 0.7x FY12F BV

Masterskill: Flunking the test (CIMB)

Masterskill
Current RM1.04
Target RM0.82
Flunking the test

Masterskill’s FY11 results were a letdown because of unexpected losses in 4Q. The dwindling of student numbers is expected to persist in 2012, underpinning a likely deceleration in earnings and margins. Dividends are still the draw but sustainability is in question.

JADI Imaging : Not Out Of the Woods Yet (TA)

JADI Imaging Holdings Berhad
Not Out Of the Woods Yet
TP: RM0.17 (0%)

JADI announced its FY11 results, which came below TA’s estimates. Net profit of RM4.1mn accounted for 62% of our full year forecast.

2012 Earnings Estimates Still Falling?


MAS ‘in crisis’, reports RM2.5b net loss for 2011

MAS ‘in crisis’, reports RM2.5b net loss for 2011
By Goh Thean Eu
gohtheaneu@nstp.com.my
2012/03/01
SLOWING FREE FALL: But its chairman says business
plan already in place to ensure turnaround and recovery
National carrier Malaysia Airline System Bhd says it is in crisis after posting worse-than-expected net losses for the fourth quarter and full-year ended December 31,2011.

Wednesday, February 29, 2012

馬股3月持續看漲

馬股3月持續看漲
(吉隆坡29日訊)隨著美國2月份持續發佈正面的經濟數據,反映其經濟逐漸復甦的趨勢,這除了帶動道瓊斯指數站穩在13000點的水平外,也讓亞洲股市普遍受惠,並尾隨該趨勢收高,其中富時大馬綜合指數按月上升3.18%,以1569.65點結束2月的交易。


展望3月份,市場人士仍然相信,美國與歐洲等外圍利好因素,將能持續推高亞洲股市,乃至於馬股的走勢。回顧2月份的整體表現,亞洲股市全面呈現上揚格局。其中,漲幅超過10%的依序為,台灣加權指數、深圳綜合指數和東京日經指數,分別按月揚升12.27%、11.90%與10.46%。

馬航末季淨虧12億

馬航末季淨虧12億
(吉隆坡29日訊)在原油成本高漲和額外成本拖累下,馬航(MAS,3786,主板貿服股)2011財政年末季和全年(截至2011年12月31日)分別寫下12億7738萬令吉和25億2398萬令吉的淨虧損。而目前燃油上漲的趨勢將成為馬航面臨的最大負面風險。


該集團2011財政年末季業績按年由盈轉虧,從去年同期的2億2591萬令吉淨利,轉為12億7738萬令吉淨虧損。該集團末季業績出現龐大的淨虧損主要是因為燃油和非燃油成本分別上漲25%(3億零500萬令吉)和50%。

Malaysia Airlines posts Q4 loss of 1.28b ringgit

Malaysia Airlines posts Q4 loss of 1.28b ringgit
Posted: 29 February 2012

KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysia Airlines said on Wednesday it lost 2.52 billion ringgit ($836 million) last year largely due to soaring fuel costs, admitting the flag carrier is "in crisis" but confident of recovery.

The airline posted its fourth straight quarterly loss - this time of 1.28 billion ringgit for the quarter ending December 31. This compares to net profit of 226 million ringgit for that period a year ago.

船運業低迷打擊‧大馬散裝貨運末季淨利挫76%

船運業低迷打擊‧大馬散裝貨運末季淨利挫76%
Created 02/29/2012 - 11:23

(吉隆坡28日訊)受船運業低迷打擊,大馬散裝貨運(MAYBULK,5077,主板貿服組)截至2011年12月31日止第四季淨利自前期6千770萬2千令吉,按年猛挫75.79%至1千639萬3千令吉,全年盈利亦暴跌61.69%至9千130萬9千令吉,比較前期為2億3千836萬8千令吉。

MDR to pay maiden dividend, after 9 profitable quarters

Business Times - 29 Feb 2012
MDR to pay maiden dividend, after 9 profitable quarters
By VEN SREENIVASAN

COMPARING the rise of MDR to the proverbial phoenix might be somewhat too hyperbolic. But the mobile phone services specialist's 9th consecutive quarter of profit - and declaration of its first ever dividend payout - is nothing short of remarkable for a company which was built on the ashes of now-defunct Accord Customer Care Solutions (ACCS) some six years ago.

Treasury China Q4 income falls short of its forecast

Business Times - 29 Feb 2012
Treasury China Q4 income falls short of its forecast
By KELLY TAY

TREASURY China Trust (TCT) yesterday posted a net property income of $15.9 million for the three months ended Dec 31, 2011, up 31.9 per cent from $12 million a year earlier.

In renminbi terms, Q4's net property income of 78.68 million yuan (S$15.9 million) was 4.6 per cent lower than TCT's own forecast of 82.47 million yuan.

Hong Leong Finance profit falls 18%

Business Times - 29 Feb 2012
Hong Leong Finance profit falls 18%
By SIOW LI SEN

HONG Leong Finance (HLF) posted a net profit of $99.8 million, down 18.2 per cent, for the 2011 full year, due to the low interest rate environment, the group said.

The company announced separately yesterday the appointment of former Cabinet minister Raymond Lim as an independent non-executive director from March 1. Mr Lim is currently a director of the Government of Singapore Investment Corporation (GIC) and also a senior adviser to John Swire & Sons (South-east Asia).

Noble Q4 profit falls 57% to US$105.7m

Business Times - 29 Feb 2012
Noble Q4 profit falls 57% to US$105.7m
Revenue up 15% to US$20b; operating margins down for agriculture, MMO
By FELDA CHAY

COMMODITIES company Noble Group has posted a 57 per cent fall in fourth-quarter net profit to US$105.7 million from US$247.5 million a year ago, as operating margins from its agriculture, and metals and minerals and ores (MMO) businesses, fell.

Dividend plays still in demand (KE)

Dividend plays still in demand –
The dividend yield approach is a useful method for selecting stocks, typically allowing investors to outperform equity indices during difficult years. Against an uncertain economic backdrop, dividend yields present a stable and reliable source of returns for investors. Our stock screen for small- and mid-cap companies (more affordable for investors!) that pay high dividend yields in the next three months based on their latest results announcements throws up six names.

Mapletree; Hitting that century mark (DBSV)

Mapletree Logistics Trust
BUY S$0.895
Price Target : 12-Month S$ 1.07\
Hitting that century mark
• Proposed purchase of 2 warehouse properties at 8.7%-8.8% yield in Malaysia
• Quality tenants within an emerging industrial hub
• Maintain BUY and S$1.07 TP

New World Dept Store: Awaiting fruitful returns from accelerated expansion (DBSV)

New World Dept Store
Awaiting fruitful returns from accelerated expansion
HOLD HK$4.95
Price Target : 12-month HK$5.29

• 1H FY12 net profit up 12.1% to HK$330m, in line with our expectation. Excluding disposal gain and revaluation of inv. properties, core profit rose 8% to HK$284m.

• Interim DPS up 15% to HK$0.098; a 49% payout (1H FY11: 50%).

• Management reiterates its target of mid-teens SSSG for FY12. GFA expansion will also accelerate to 10-20% CAGR in next 5 years, versus 9-10% in FY09-11. While trading at 1.2x FY12 PEG and 6% discount to our TP, we maintain HOLD.

Maybulk: A rocky boat ride (CIMB)

Malaysian Bulk Carriers
Current RM1.75
Target RM1.65
A rocky boat ride

Maybulk’s FY11 core net profit missed the boat by 20% because of additional cost items and lower earnings from its associate, POSH. The improvement in bulk earnings is unlikely to continue this year as the BDI has since plunged to a 26-year low.

OKP: Solid contract win to start the year (DBSV)

OKP Holdings
BUY S$0.62
Price Target : 12-Month S$ 0.75
Solid contract win to start the year
OKP Holdings announced that they have secured a contract worth S$75.3m from the Land Transport Authority (LTA) for the expansion of the Central Expressway (CTE), Tampines Expressway (TPE) and Seletar Expressway (SLE) Interchange. Work will commence in March 2012 and targeted to complete in 2015. This is one of the key potential contract wins we have highlighted in our past few reports and is well within our expectations.

UEM Land: Impressive results (Hwang)

UEM Land Holdings
Impressive results
HOLD RM2.22
Price Target : RM2.30

• 4Q11 earnings above expectations
• RM1.9bn unbilled sales & RM4.5bn launch pipeline to provide earnings visibility, limited land sales until 2013
• Maintain Hold and RM2.30 TP (40% discount to RNAV of RM3.82)

Masterskill: 4Q11 slips into the red (Hwang)

Masterskill Education
4Q11 slips into the red
FULLY VALUED RM1.04
Price Target : RM 0.70
• 4Q11 turned in an unexpected RM1.6m net loss
• No catalyst in sight, with new student intakes remaining weak in the near term
• Maintain Fully Valued and RM0.70 TP (pegged to 10x FY12 EPS)

Noble: En-route to recovery (CIMB)

Noble
Current S$1.38
Target S$1.40
En-route to recovery

4Q11 was an inflexion point for Noble. The group returned toprofitability following losses in 3Q11. We expect earnings momentum to gather pace from 1Q12 along with the economic recovery and improving operating landscape.

Armstrong Industrial: Recovery on track (DMG)

Armstrong Industrial: Recovery on track
(BUY, S$0.315, TP S$0.37)
Results in line; maintain BUY. Armstrong’s 4Q earnings came in at S$1.9m (-69.0% YoY) on the back of sales of S$49.2m (+25.7%). Full year core PATMI fell by 51.4% YoY to S$12.1m, largely attributable to the reduction in sales in hard disk drive (HDD) business (-10.3% YoY) as a result of Thai flood. This was partly offset by strong growth in the automotive business (+8.0% YoY), thanks to the robust market in China. Going forward, we expect the group to report an operating profit of S$13.7m for FY12 underpinned by a recovery in the HDD business and trong growth momentum in the automotive business. There is also a possibility of a write-back in mark-to-market forex losses.

HLF: Higher 4Q11 sequential earnings on more provision writeback (DMG)

HLF: Higher 4Q11 sequential earnings on more provision writeback
(NEUTRAL, S$2.45, TP S$2.42)
HLF reported 4Q11 net profit of S$24.7m, down 5.6% YoY, but up 11% QoQ. FY11 net profit of S$99.8m was above our S$93m forecast, due to more provisions writeback. HLF recorded a 5.2% QoQ expansion in loans, building on 3Q11’s 6.3%, which is a positive. We cut FY12 and FY13 net profit forecasts by 9% and 5% respectively to factor in weaker net interest income – management indicated that pricing for all categories of lending products continued to come under pressure.

KNM: Above expectations (MIB)

KNM Group
Hold (from Sell)
Share price: RM0.94
Target price: RM0.88 (unchanged)
Above expectations

Upgrade to Hold. Results were ahead of expectations. KNM was operationally positive in 4Q11, a pleasant surprise. While we remain cautious over its cost management abilities, the worst appears to be over for KNM, with most of the negatives priced in following a 39% QoQ decline in its share price. Against this backdrop, we upgrade KNM to a Hold with an unchanged TP of RM0.88 on 8x 2013 PER. KNM needs to deliver a consistent set of quarterly results to warrant further re-rating.

Padini: A strong FY12 shaping up (MIB)

Padini Holdings
Buy (unchanged)
Share price: RM1.33
Target price: RM1.70 (from RM1.60)
A strong FY12 shaping up

Above expectations. Padini’s net profit of RM28.6m for 2QFY12 (+97% YoY, +6% QoQ) was above our expectations, making up 35% of our full-year forecast. Cumulatively, 1HFY12 net profit of RM55.5m (+69% YoY) accounted for 67% of our estimates for FY12. We revise our earnings estimates for FY12 and FY13 upwards by 5-6% p.a. following the impressive results and consequently raise our TP to RM1.70 (+6%), based on CY12 PER target of 12x (unchanged).

印尼削减食用油出口税 金光农业计划增产

新加坡路透电)金光农业资源(Golden Agri-Resources)计划在未来两年里,将集团在印尼的产量扩大近一倍至260万吨,以便能充分利用印尼针对精制食用油的较低出口税。

  集团执行董事拉斐尔(Rafael B. Concepcion Jr)表示,集团目前在印尼有超过50万公顷土地及140万吨产能,是印尼去年削减出口税后的主要受益人之一。

第四季农产品业务利润大跌 来宝集团净利下跌57% 第四季农产品业务利润大跌 来宝集团净利下跌57%

来宝集团的业务从棉花至蔗糖至煤炭贸易,第四季的净利比一年前同季的2亿4750万美元是少了超过一半。第四季的业绩较第三季有所改善,该集团在第三季出现了14年来第一次的季度亏损,加上当时总裁辞职的消息,一度使其股价大受打压。该集团第四季营收则增加15%至201亿美元。

王阳发 报道

  来宝集团(Noble Group)第四季净利下跌57%至1亿零570万美元,因商品市场动荡导致农产品业务的利润大跌。该集团第四季营收则增加15%至201亿美元。

曾淵滄專欄 2012 02 29: 新界上車盤有買趁手

新界上車盤有買趁手

前日恒指午後出奇不意的急跌,昨日則出其不意的急升,急升或急跌,實際上沒有甚麼實質的理由支持,這只不過是一些有實力的大戶在當領頭羊,引導其他的羊群跟隨,目前看起來好消息出盡,但也預見不到甚麼壞消息,既然好壞消息皆欠奉,就由大戶主導升跌。

Golden Agri-Resources Ltd: 4Q11 disappoints; cut to HOLD (OCBC)

Golden Agri-Resources (GAR) reported core earnings that missed our forecasts, coming in at US$90.6m, or 41.5% below. For FY11, revenue jumped 69.9% to US$5952.9m, or just 0.2% shy of our forecast; while core earnings climbed 47.6% to US$571.4m, it was 12.3% below our estimate (nearly 10% below consensus). Meanwhile, GAR declared a final cash dividend of 1.84 S cents, versus 0.77 S cent last year; payable on 15 May. In light of the latest results and also using a slightly higher CPO assumption of US$1000/ton (US$950/ton previously), we bump up our FY12 revenue estimate by 2.7%; but cut our earnings by 6.8% (due to lower margin assumptions). Still based on 12.5x FY12F EPS, our fair value eases from S$0.82 to S$0.77. Given the limited upside, we downgrade our call to HOLD; we would be buyers below S$0.70.

Overcapacity, falling rates hit Maybulk Q4 net profit

The Star Online > Business
Wednesday February 29, 2012

Overcapacity, falling rates hit Maybulk Q4 net profit

By SHARIDAN M. ALI
sharidan@thestar.com.my

KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysian Bulk Carriers Bhd's (Maybulk) net profit for the fourth quarter ended Dec 31, 2011 slumped 75.6% to RM16.4mil against the previous corresponding quarter.

The fall in profit was expected as the shipping industry, including the dry bulk segment, was still plagued with overcapacity, falling freight rates and dwindling demand.

Apple Worth More Than Singapore's Economy?

Bove Says Banks Hurt by Negative Psychology

I'll put my money in stocks: Buffett

I'll put my money in stocks: Buffett
Updated 08:05 AM Feb 28, 2012
OMAHA - Billionaire Warren Buffett said yesterday that stocks remain relatively cheap compared to other investments as the economy continues to improve.

The chairman and chief executive of Berkshire Hathaway addressed a variety of topics during an interview on CNBC, two days after his annual letter to the conglomerate's shareholders was released.

Indonesian shipper Berlian Laju defaults on debt instruments

Indonesian shipper Berlian Laju defaults on debt instruments
04:46 AM Feb 29, 2012
SINGAPORE - Indonesian oil and gas shipping firm Berlian Laju Tanker said it has defaulted on six US dollar and local currency instruments and is in talks with its financial adviser on restructuring its debt.

The company has not made payments on the instruments after a debt restructuring and debt standstill announcement made on Jan 26, it said in a statement to the Singapore Exchange.

Maybulk confident of staying profitable

Maybulk confident of staying profitable
By : GOH THEAN EU
gohtheaneu@nstp.com.my
2012/02/29


MALAYSIAN Bulk Carriers Bhd (Maybulk) is expected to take advantage of the current depressed freight market by acquiring more vessels this year.

"We are monitoring the situation. We plan to reinvest our profits and to take opportunity of the current depressed freight market.

KNM suffers pre-tax profit loss of RM147.6m

KNM suffers pre-tax profit loss of RM147.6m
2012/02/28

KNM Group Bhd suffered a loss before tax of RM147.55 million for the year ended Dec 31, 2011 compared with a profit before tax of RM46.51 million previously.

However, it recorded a higher revenue of RM1.982 billion against RM1.559
billion a year ago.

Oil & gas sector to remain key pillar of economy

Oil & gas sector to remain key pillar of economy
2012/02/29
NOW AND BEYOND: Sector to play bigger role in driving Malaysia’s growth

THE oil and gas sector is expected to play a bigger role in driving the Malaysian economy this year and beyond, said Minister in the Prime Minister’s Department Datuk Seri Idris Jala.

The sector contracted in terms of production last year, bogged down by problems faced by Murphy Oil Corp in Malaysia’s first deepwater oil field in Kikeh, offshore Sabah.

Tuesday, February 28, 2012

MIIF:Risk/reward remains attractive (DBSV)

MIIF
BUY S$0.585
Price Target : 12-Month S$ 0.64
Risk/reward remains attractive
• 2H11 DPS of 2.75 Scts in line
• All key underlying assets achieved revenue growth in FY11; net dividend income for MIIF up 30% y-o-y
• Maintain BUY with TP of S$0.64; current dividend yield of 9.4% provides enough buffer against risk of toll rate cut at HNE

HSBC: Income weakness offset cost saves (DBSV)

HSBC Holdings
Income weakness offset cost saves
HOLD HK$69.60
Price Target : 12-month HK$ 73.2 (Prev HK$69.7)

• HSBC’s net profit was spot on with forecast
• Mainland associates, loan provisions, and cost saves were key positives
• But interest and non interest income streams continued to disappoint
• Maintain Hold with TP of HK$73.2

末季净利1.39亿 UOA发展派10仙终期股息

末季净利1.39亿 UOA发展派10仙终期股息
Created 02/28/2012 - 12:06
(吉隆坡27日讯)UOA发展(UOADev,5200,主板产业股)2011财年第四季录得1亿3943万7000令吉净利,营业额则达1亿3746万9000令吉。

该公司2011财年全年取得3亿8480万6000令吉净利,以及6亿1359万6000令吉营业额;其第四季和全年每股盈利分别达12仙和139仙。

HSBC says it's on track to meet 2013 profit target

Business Times - 28 Feb 2012
HSBC says it's on track to meet 2013 profit target

(LONDON) HSBC Holdings, Europe's largest bank by market value, said it is on a 'clear trajectory' to meeting its profitability target next year as it posted a 27 per cent increase in full-year profit for 2011.

Golden Agri Q4 net dives 36% as core earnings hit

Business Times - 28 Feb 2012
Golden Agri Q4 net dives 36% as core earnings hit
Fair-value gains also lower; group planning capex of US$500m in FY2012

By FELDA CHAY
A MORE than one-third fall in fourth-quarter core earnings and fair-value gains resulted in Golden Agri-Resources posting a 36 per cent drop in net profit for the final three months of 2011.

Container Shipping: More downward pressure after impact of good news wears off (UOBKH)

Container Shipping
More downward pressure after impact of good news wears off; maintain UNDERWEIGHT and downgrade OOIL to SELL

What’s New
• AE rates spiked in last week. According to the Shanghai Shipping Exchange, Asia-Europe (AE) rates rebounded to US$826/TEU (+16.2% wow, -31.2% yoy), as cargo owners rushed to ship out cargo ahead of the rate increase that will take effect on 1 March. Transpacific (TP) rates remained steady with rates from Shanghai to US West and East Coast coming in at US$1,774/FEU (-1.3% wow, -0.5% yoy) and US$2,822/FEU (-4.1% wow, -6.3% yoy) respectively.

NOL: Buffeted by rough seas (KE)

Neptune Orient Lines
Sell (from Hold)
Share price: S$1.425
Target price: S$1.20 (previously $1.35)
Buffeted by rough seas

Downgrade to Sell. Neptune Orient Lines’ (NOL) 4Q11 results came in weaker than expected even after excluding impairment charges of US$19.5m on assets classified as held-for-sale (ie, vessels) and a forex loss of US$10.0m. Net loss of US$320.4m for the quarter was also significantly higher than the previous quarter’s at US$91.1m, largely due to persistently high fuel costs and lower freight rates. We lower our target price to $1.20 and downgrade the stock to Sell.

Golden Agri: Strong net profit yoy growth, but lower qoq(UOBKH)

Golden Agri-Resources
Share price S$0.75
Target price S$0.95
Upside +26.7%
(Previous TP S$0.85)
2011: Strong net profit yoy growth, but lower qoq

Results
• Strong yoy, but lower qoq, result below expectation. Golden Agri- Resources’ (GGR) core net profit increased by 47.6% yoy to US$571m in 2011. However, on a quarterly basis, core net profit declined by 23.2% qoq to US$91m in 4Q11 due to lower CPO FOB prices by 5% qoq and higher fertiliser cost. Although revenue was in line with expectation, core net profit was below expectation as it only accounted for 91% of our 2011 forecast. This was due to higher-than-expected operating expenses.

曾淵滄專欄 2012 02 28: 大市突插嚇壞散戶

大市突插嚇壞散戶
昨日恒指波幅相當大,高低位相差 513點,午後 3時前後那近一句鐘時間,更出現突然性的插水直瀉 400餘點,嚇壞不少散戶,難道是有人有內幕消息,知道滙控( 005)將公佈一個很差的業績? 4時過後,滙控公佈的業績,是比市場預期的好一點點,根據 21家大行的預測盈利中位數是 158億美元,結果公佈的結果是 162億美元。

Tax on local vessels needs review

The Star Online > Business
Tuesday February 28, 2012
Tax on local vessels needs review
Local OSVs unable to compete with charter rates offered by foreign-owned vessels
By THOMAS HUONG huong@thestar.com.my

KUALA LUMPUR: Owners of Offshore Support Vessels (OSVs) in the oil and gas industry, are urging the Government and local banks to look into tax and financing issues affecting their business.

MAS likely to incur hefty loss for financial year 2011

The Star Online > Business
Tuesday February 28, 2012
MAS likely to incur hefty loss for financial year 2011
PETALING JAYA: Analysts are expecting Malaysia Airlines (MAS) to incur a hefty loss for the financial year ended Dec 31, 2011 (FY11), which consensus estimates have pegged at RM1.21bil, when it announces its results this week.

IGB planning hotel REIT

The Star Online > Business
Tuesday February 28, 2012
IGB planning hotel REIT
Move to unlock value of its hospitality assets locally and overseas
By ANGIE NG angie@thestar.com.my
PETALING JAYA: IGB Corp Bhd is said to be mulling over a hotel real estate investment trust (REIT) to unlock the value of its hospitality assets in the country and overseas.
IGB planning hotel REIT
Industry observers said the hotel REIT was likely to come about after the property group's 75%-owned unit, KrisAssets Holdings Bhd, had successfully injected its two retail assets in Mid Valley City - the Mid Valley Megamall and The Gardens shopping mall into a retail real estate investment trust later this year.

The two retail assets have an estimated total asset value of close to RM4bil and the retail REIT is expected to be materialised within this year.

An analyst with a bank-backed brokerage said IGB's new hotel REIT might be the next in line and the plan was an indicator of a positive outlook for the local hospitality sector.

IGB owns a stable of business-class as well as upmarket hotel assets and has been streamlining the assets parked under its hospitality division. Plans for more hotels are also under way.

Last December, IGB acquired a 50% stake in Great Union Properties Sdn Bhd (GUP), the owner of The Renaissance Kuala Lumpur Hotel, for RM277.5mil. Upon completion of the acquisition that is expected in the first quarter of this year, GUP will become a wholly-owned subsidiary of IGB.

According to the company's website, IGB has 16 hotel assets under its hospitality division including nine in Malaysia Renaissance Kuala Lumpur Hotel, The Gardens Hotel & Residences, Boulevard Hotel, MiCasa All Suite Hotel, Cititel Mid Valley Kuala Lumpur, Cititel Penang, Cititel Express Kuala Lumpur, Cititel Express Kota Kinabalu and Pangkor Island Beach Resort.

It also owns seven hotels overseas MiCasa Hotel Apartments Yangon, Myanmar; New World Saigon, Vietnam; St Giles Hotel Makati Manila; St Giles Hotel The Court, New York; St Giles Hotel The Tuscany New York; St Giles Hotel Heathrow, London and St Giles Hotel Central London.

Meanwhile, IGB's unit, Cititel Hotel Management Sdn Bhd (CHM), is said to be building two new hotels in Penang.

The four-star St Giles Hotel and three-star Cititel Express Hotel will cost about RM180mil and they will be ready for business in 2014. The 32-storey St Giles Penang with about 500 rooms will be the first St Giles hotel in Malaysia.

Source/Extract/Excerpts/来源/转贴/摘录: The Star Online
Publish date: 28/02/12

Warren Buffett On Buybacks and His Greatest Worry

CNBC Transcript Part 8: Warren Buffett On Buybacks and His Greatest Worry
Published: Monday, 27 Feb 2012 | 5:04 PM ET
By: Alex Crippen Executive Producer
Warren Buffett appeared live on CNBC's Squawk Box this morning, February 27, 2012, for his annual "Ask Warren" three-hour marathon.

This is part eight of a transcript of his comments.

Warren Buffett Changes His Mind On Auto Bailout

CNBC Transcript Part 7: Warren Buffett Changes His Mind On Auto Bailout
Published: Monday, 27 Feb 2012 | 4:47 PM ET
By: Alex Crippen Executive Producer
Warren Buffett appeared live on CNBC's Squawk Box this morning, February 27, 2012, for his annual "Ask Warren" three-hour marathon.

This is part seven of a transcript of his comments

Warren Buffett On His Favorite Bank Stock and Advising Steve Jobs

CNBC Transcript Part 6: Warren Buffett On His Favorite Bank Stock and Advising Steve Jobs
Published: Monday, 27 Feb 2012 | 4:17 PM ET
By: Alex Crippen Executive Producer

Warren Buffett appeared live on CNBC's Squawk Box this morning, February 27, 2012, for his annual "Ask Warren" three-hour marathon.

This is part six of a transcript of his comments.

Warren Buffett Personally Owns Some JPMorgan Shares

CNBC Transcript Part 5: Warren Buffett Personally Owns Some JPMorgan Shares
Published: Monday, 27 Feb 2012 | 2:02 PM ET
By: Alex Crippen Executive Producer
Warren Buffett appeared live on CNBC's Squawk Box this morning, February 27, 2012, for his annual "Ask Warren" three-hour marathon.

This is part five of a transcript of his comments.

Warren Buffett on the 'Buffett Rule'

CNBC Transcript Part 4: Warren Buffett on the 'Buffett Rule'
Published: Monday, 27 Feb 2012 | 1:26 PM ET
By: Alex Crippen Executive Producer

Warren Buffett appeared live on CNBC's Squawk Box this morning, February 27, 2012, for his annual "Ask Warren" three-hour marathon.

This is part four of a transcript of his comments.

Warren Buffett Defends His 'Tax the Rich' Call

CNBC Transcript Part 3: Warren Buffett Defends His 'Tax the Rich' Call
Published: Monday, 27 Feb 2012 | 12:57 PM ET
By: Alex Crippen Executive Producer
Warren Buffett appeared live on CNBC's Squawk Box this morning, February 27, 2012, for his annual "Ask Warren" three-hour marathon.

This is part three of a transcript of his comments.

Warren Buffett on Taxing the Rich

CNBC Transcript Part 2: Warren Buffett on Taxing the Rich
Published: Monday, 27 Feb 2012 | 11:38 AM ET
By: Alex Crippen Executive Producer

Warren Buffett appeared live on CNBC's Squawk Box this morning, February 27, 2012, for his annual "Ask Warren" three-hour marathon.

Warren Buffett on Buying Houses and the Next Berkshire CEO

CNBC Transcript Part 1: Warren Buffett on Buying Houses and the Next Berkshire CEO
Published: Monday, 27 Feb 2012
By: Alex Crippen
Executive Producer

Warren Buffett appeared live on CNBC's Squawk Box this morning, February 27, 2012, for his annual "Ask Warren" three-hour marathon.

Should You Bet Like Buffett?

IBM: Worth Buying Like Buffett?

Talking Numbers: Bank on JP Morgan?

Bullish on Mainland Chinese Stocks

Buffett on Banks: Wells Fargo A Good Asset

Asian real estate has outperformed YTD, take profit? (CS)

Singapore Property
Asian real estate has outperformed YTD, take profit?

● MSCI Real Estate has been up 26.5% YTD versus a 16.1% rise in MXASJ (MSCI Asia ex-Japan). Credit Suisse Asian strategist, Sakthi Siva, believes despite the strong performance, real estate is still among the four most undervalued sectors on our P/B versus ROE valuation model. Click here for Sakthi’s report.

Hi-P : FY11 behind; strong guidance for 2H/FY12 (CS)

Hi-P
Price (24 Feb 12 , S$) 0.92
TP (prev. TP S$) 1.00 (0.60)
Est. pot. % chg. to TP 9
52-wk range (S$) 1.24 - 0.49
Maintain NEUTRAL
FY11 behind; strong guidance for 2H/FY12
● Hi-P’s FY11 results were below both consensus and our estimates, with revenue up 26% to S$1.2 bn but earnings down 33% to S$45.0 mn. A dividend of S¢2.4 was declared (versus S¢3.6 in FY10), down in line with profitability.

MIIF: Potential headwind at HNE but management will seek compensation(NRA)

Macquarie International Infrastructure Fund Ltd
Current Price S$0.585
Fair Value S$0.60
Potential headwind at HNE but management will seek compensation

 4QFY11 distribution income surged 133.3% YoY to S$0.9m largely due to higher distribution from MIIF’s increased stake of 47.5%, from 20%, in Taiwan Broadband Communications (TBC). FY11 distribution grew 36.7% YoY to S$57.7m due to higher distributions from all assets, except Miaoli Winds (MW), and largely from higher distribution from TBC, reflecting MIIF’s increased ownership. FY11 distribution from TBC grew 128% YoY to S$29.9m, while those from Hua Nan Expressway (HNE) and Changshu Xinghua Port (CXP) grew 5.8% YoY and 15.3% YoY to S$22.5m and S$5.3m respectively. FY11 distribution is largely in line with our expectations of S$57.5m.

Neptune Orient Lines: Nightmare of a quarter (OCBC)

Neptune Orient Lines (NOL) surprised the street by turning in a net loss of US$320m in 4Q11, which was even higher than consensus’ full year net loss estimate of US$275m. 4Q11 revenue fell 13% YoY to US$2.4b, while FY11 revenue eased 2% YoY to US$9.2b. Thus far in 1Q12, freight rates have averaged 7% higher but bunker prices have more than kept pace by climbing 8%. Much will now depend on how successful liners are in rate hikes for both Asia-Europe and transpacific trade lanes. Given the possibility of shipping liners successfully raising freight rates, we increase our fair value estimate of NOL to S$1.15/share, based on a 0.9x P/B multiple or half a standard deviation below historical average. However, we reiterate our SELL rating on NOL after a dreadful 4Q11 and an equally challenging outlook.

Coastal Contracts: Persevering in an uncertain market (Hwang)

Coastal Contracts
Persevering in an uncertain market
BUY RM2.40
Price Target : RM 3.25

• FY11 earnings in line
• FY12F revenues largely backed by its RM610m order book with c.30% gross margins
• Maintain Buy with RM3.25 TP

Noble : Earnings recovery priced in(DBSV)

Noble Group
HOLD S$1.395
Price Target : 12-Month S$ 1.45

Earnings recovery priced in
• Expect 4Q11 core earnings of c.US$164m on reversal of FX losses, absence of write-downs
• But, potential downside to US$115-125m on weakerthan- expected Agriculture earnings implying 8% negative impact to FY11F EPS
• Weak sequential recovery is priced in; maintain HOLD and S$1.45 TP

财经追击 Episode 46--26.02.2012 (Budget2012 & S-REIT)

Check out this great 财经追击 - Episode 46

Warren Buffett: Steve Jobs Didn't Take My Advice to Buy Back Apple Stock

Warren Buffett: Steve Jobs Didn't Take My Advice to Buy Back Apple Stock
Published: Monday, 27 Feb 2012

During his live "Ask Warren" appearance on CNBC's Squawk Box this morning, Warren Buffett recounted a telephone call he got from the late Apple CEO Steve Jobs a couple of years ago:

Golden Agri Q4 net profit falls 36%, full-year net profit down 10.9%

Golden Agri Q4 net profit falls 36%, full-year net profit down 10.9%
04:46 AM Feb 28, 2012
SINGAPORE - Golden Agri-Resources said yesterday fourth-quarter net profit fell 36 per cent to US$748 million (S$944 million) from a year earlier, mainly due to higher cost of sales and lower fair value gains on its plantations.

The company logged US$903 million in fair value gains on its biological assets, declining from a year earlier when it posted fair value gains of US$1.37 billion.
Warren E. Buffett(沃伦•巴菲特)
Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful
别人贪婪时我恐惧, 别人恐惧时我贪婪
投资只需学好两门课: 一,是如何给企业估值,二,是如何看待股市波动
吉姆·罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)
“错过时机”胜于“搞错对象”:不会全军覆没!”
做自己熟悉的事,等到发现大好机会才投钱下去

乔治·索罗斯(George Soros)

“犯错误并没有什么好羞耻的,只有知错不改才是耻辱。”

如果操作过量,即使对市场判断正确,仍会一败涂地。

李驰(中国巴菲特)
高估期间, 卖对, 不卖也对, 买是错的。
低估期间, 买对, 不买也是对, 卖是错的。

Tan Teng Boo


There’s no such thing as defensive stocks.Every stock can be defensive depending on what price you pay for it and what value you get,
冷眼(冯时能)投资概念
“买股票就是买公司的股份,买股份就是与陌生人合股做生意”。
合股做生意,则公司股份的业绩高于一切,而股票的价值决定于盈利。
价值是本,价格是末,故公司比股市重要百倍。
曹仁超-香港股神/港股明灯
1.有智慧,不如趁势
2.止损不止盈
成功者所以成功,是因为不怕失败!失败者所以失败,是失败后不再尝试!
曾淵滄-散户明灯
每逢灾难就是机会,而是在灾难发生时贱价买股票,然后放在一边,耐性地等灾难结束
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