Saturday, February 25, 2012

MIIF: Company Signaling Business Confidence(SIAS)

Macquarie International Infrastructure Fund Ltd
Invest
S$0.680
S$0.580
Company Signaling Business Confidence

Macquarie International Infrastructure Fund Ltd (“MIIF”) FY11 full year results performed within our high expectations with a bottom line of S$45.8 m (Exp: S$47.1m, Variance: 2.7%) from our expectation. Segmental EBITDA from Changshu Xinghua Port (“CXP”) and Hua Nan Expressway (“HNE”) all experienced double digit growth of a 21.3% and 22.4% respectively, whereas their largest portfolio holding, Taiwan Broadband Communication (“TBC”), reflected relatively stable growth of 5.0%. We maintain our Invest rating at an intrinsic value of S$0.680.

NOL: Losses may not reverse so soon (DBSV)

23/02/12
Neptune Orient Lines
FULLY VALUED S$1.425
Downgrade from HOLD
Price Target : 12-month S$ 1.25
Losses may not reverse so soon
• FY11 losses significantly higher than estimates
• Skeptical about extent of proposed freight rate hikes in the near term
• Oil price worries add to uncertainties
• Downgrade to FULLY VALUED with TP of S$1.25

Size matters: blue chips recover faster

Business Times - 25 Feb 2012
SHOW ME THE MONEY
Size matters: blue chips recover faster
They have a greater tendency to bounce back when recovery comes while small caps fall by the wayside

A股国际论坛:胡立阳PK罗杰斯

视频]A股国际论坛胡立阳PK罗杰斯
http://finance.QQ.com  2008年06月29日14:26   腾讯财经  


国内证券业顶级盛会——腾讯网2008影响中国·A股投资国际论坛,于6月28日-29日在深圳大中华喜来登酒店隆重召开。视频为华尔街大师对决:罗杰斯PK胡立阳

曹仁超预测内地运势:将有30年大好运



全球股市上扬的潜在动力

全球股市上扬的潜在动力
BWCHINESE中文网 2012-02-24 星期五
当下的股票市场充斥着最好的主要指数,但是,这些指数同样是出了名的不可信。

BWCHINESE中文网讯,导致全球经济仍处于沮丧状态的原因,除了愈演愈烈的欧元区主权债务危机之外,还有中国经济的极度失衡,以及新一轮油价冲击的可能。诸多不确定性因素的存在,让全球经济惴惴不安。

巴菲特的公司被低估了?

2012年 02月 24日 16:02
巴菲特的公司被低估了?

按巴菲特(Warren Buffett)的计算方法,他的公司在2011年过得还算不错。但从伯克希尔-哈撒韦公司(Berkshire Hathaway Inc.)的股价来看,却很难得出这个结论。

巴菲特本周六发布年度致股东信时,预计这位知名投资家将会强调,他的公司去年的价值成长比股市上涨更快,这是三年来首次有这样的表现。

标普500指数升至2008年来最高水平

2012年 2月 25日 06:20
标普500指数升至2008年来最高水平
标准普尔500指数周五收于2008年以来最高水平,因多数股票受好于预期的经济数据提振而走高,但油价上涨限制了股市的涨势。

荷兰银行: 中国股市涨势或延续

(新加坡彭博电)荷兰银行的私人银行部门认为,虽然中国股市今年以来呈上涨,但中国股市估值仍然较低,而随着通胀缓解让政府可以采取更多财政政策促进经济增长,中国股市的涨势或将延续。

  彭博汇编的每周数据显示,上证综合指数进入2012年来已累计上涨9.7%,推动本益比从1月6日的8.9倍的创纪录低位回升至10倍。不过,这仍然低于16.2倍的四年平均水平。上证综指已连续六周上涨,创下2010年11月以来最长上涨周期。

Dragon And Bull Make A Perfect Couple! Awaiting Confirmation Of Strong Bull Run

Dragon And Bull Make A Perfect Couple! Awaiting Confirmation Of Strong Bull Run
By Gabriel Gan
It seems rather odd to pair the dragon and the bull together but, quite apparently, both animals do mix! It is hard to imagine any relationship between the two but the dragon has brought along a friend that investors have missed for the whole of 2011 – the Bull!

Prof Chan Yan Chong Commentary 17.02.2012

Prof Chan Yan Chong
By Prof Chan Yan Chong
Greece has finally decided to take further austerity measures in order to get the aid that it badly needs. This is positive for the stock market but the European Union are still not happy with the deal and have not disbursed the funds. I believe that the EU will not disburse the US$130 billion at one go, preferring to release the money batch by batch till the deadline so that any changes in the Greek government after the elections in two months’ time will not affect the agreement. Nevertheless, the Greeks need money every few months, which means that the EU will have plenty of time to see if Greece does indeed stick to the austerity measures.

Second Chance – A Billion Dollar Company?

Second Chance – A Billion Dollar Company?
By Xavier Lim
Meanwhile, Salleh has laid out promising business strategies for Second Chance in a bid to achieve its vision of being a billion dollar company based on market capitalisation by 2022.

When Mohamed Salleh, founder cum chief executive officer of Second Chance Properties Ltd started the business of tailoring men’s garment in 1975, never did anyone expect he will be able to grow his private tailoring shop into a multi-million company it is today.

Recognising The Psychology Behind Your (Irrational) Mind, Part II

Recognising The Psychology Behind Your (Irrational) Mind, Part II
By Simeon Ang
In this part two of our series of articles on Behavioural Finance, we shall continue to try to explain and increase understanding of the reasoning patterns of investors, including the emotional and cognitive processes involved and how much these processes affect and influence the decision making process.
When I last left you, we were at the term financial cognitive dissonance with a scenario about the choice of chicken and vegetables. Perhaps, it did not seem so clear cut then, so let us now consider the plight of the chain smoker. The chain smoker knows for a fact that every cigarette he lights up is one more shovel of dirt he is digging up from his grave. But many rationalise their behaviour, by telling themselves that smoking keeps their weight down and that being overweight is a greater threat to their health than smoking.

Why Singapore Property Prices Might Fall In 2013

Why Singapore Property Prices Might Fall In 2013
By Dennis Ng
People are still rushing to buy properties in Singapore. A new residential condominium project in Bedok had a long queue 3 days before its official launch and sold more than 350 units on the very first day. However, there is a ‘trend’ that had emerged in 2011 that most have possibly overlooked.

Epicentre Holdings Up The Ante In The On-going iPhone Wave?

Epicentre Holdings Up The Ante In The On-going iPhone Wave?
By Jade Lee and Louis Lee
Apple: iPerform
Raking in a record breaking US$46.3 billion sales revenue and US$13.1 billion net income for the first quarter ended 31 December 2011, Apple has beaten the estimates of analysts by a significant margin. Fuelling the sales was none other than its hot products like the iPhones and iPads. Although part of this record-breaking performance was boosted by the holiday season, ever strong demand for Apple’s products continues to be the fact that is apparent to everyone. In perspective, the sales figures convey to an average of 378,000 iPhones and 157,000 iPads every day for the quarter, globally.

Budget 2012 – The Usual Pragmatic Approach

Budget 2012 – The Usual Pragmatic Approach
By Simeon Ang
Pragmatism, an attribute that our government is known to propagate in all of its policies, is clearly evident in this year’s budget. I was right to tone down expectations in my previous article about the possibilities that Budget 2012 would pump a huge stimulus into the economy on a short term basis.

Hi-P’s massive S$180m capex plan (DMG)

Hi-P’s massive S$180m capex plan (SGXNET)

The news: Hi-P’s full year results of S$45m PATMI (-32.8 YoY) on the back of S$1.2 billion revenue (+25.7%) is in line with our estimates. In view of the needs to 1) develop new business opportunities, 2) automate manufacturing processes and 3) align with market trends and demands, the management announced a massive capex plan of S$180m to acquire additional machinery, equipment and to expand production facilities. The capex will be deployed in phases and is expected to contribute to the performance of the group only from 2H2012 onwards. Furthermore, the group also gave a bullish guidance towards outlook its FY2012.

Sheng Siong Group: Pickup in FY12 to come (OCBC)

Sheng Siong Group’s (SSG) FY11 results were broadly in-line with our expectations. Revenue fell 8% YoY to S$578m following the closure of the two key outlets while net profit fell 36.1% to S$27.3m in the absence of trading gains. SSG’s top-line figure exceeded our revenue projections slightly by 2.3% but an unexpected tax charge caused SSG’s net profit to come in under our projected S$31m. A final dividend of 1.77 SG cents per share was declared (90% of net profit as previously committed) for a dividend yield of 3.6%. Going forward, we expect revenue and net profit to pickup strongly in FY12 with the opening of new stores. As SSG’s results were in-line with our expectations, we keep our FY12 assumptions unchanged and roll our valuation forward to FY12, which increases our fair value estimate to S$0.49 from S$0.44 previously. With a committed 90% of net profit payout in FY12, we are expecting an attractive dividend yield of about 5.8%. Maintain HOLD.

财经追击 Episode 45--19.02.2012 (Singapore Budget 2012)

Check out this great 财经追击 - Episode 45

财经追击 Episode 44--12.02.2012 (A New Dawn for the Stock Market?)

Check out this great 财经追击 - Episode 44

财经追击 Episode 43--05.02.2012 (home prices really fall? and Investing in S-REIT)

Check out this great 财经追击 - Episode 43

财经追击 Episode 42--29.01.2012-Investing S-REIT

Check out this great 财经追击 - Episode 42

Otto Marine: No recovery in sight (CIMB)

Otto Marine
Current S$0.14
Target S$0.10
No recovery in sight

Otto is strugglingto stay afloat. All of its business segments have underperformed.While FY11 could have markedthe bottom, we project it to remain in the red. Without a concrete business strategy to steer its way ahead, we advise investors to stay clear ofthe stock.

AirAsia: Spreading Wings in FY12 (HLG)

AirAsia (BUY , EPS )
Price Target: RM4.50 ()
Share price: RM3.67
Spreading Wings in FY12

Results
 In line – Reported 4Q11 core net profit of RM279.7m, leading to FY11 core profit of RM725.2m, in line with our forecast of RM718.2m and consensus’s RM744.7m.

Sino Grandness: Disappointing results (DMG)

Sino Grandness: Disappointing results
(SELL, S$0.455, TP S$0.37)

4Q11 net profit of RMB22m (-43% y-o-y, -52% q-o-q) was below our assumed RMB35m, largely due to higher than expected selling expenses and convertible bonds related expenses. On a fullyear basis, although beverage net profit would likely come in within expectation at ~RMB70m (according to management), non-beverage net profit would be flat y-o-y despite enjoying 30% growth at gross profit level. We now expect FY12 earnings to contract 20% y-o-y to RMB122m, assuming 1) non-beverage net profit to contract 50% y-o-y due to a deteriorating export outlook and 2) beverage profit to grow by only 10% y-o-y, constrained by a funding gap of some RMB100m for its intended expansion plan. Downgrade to SELL at TP of S$0.37, pegged to 4x FY12F PER.

MISC: Sailing into the red sea (CIMB)

MISC
Current RM5.80
Target RM4.80
Sailing into the red sea

Higher losses from the tanker, chemical and liner divisions pushed MISC into an unexpected core net loss for the quarter ending Dec 11, its first-ever loss. MMHE earnings also missed forecasts. The poor showing and absence of a final dividend are likely to derate the stock.

Cosco: Sinking lower (DBSV)

Cosco Corporation
FULLY VALUED S$1.23
Price Target : 12-month S$ 0.88

Sinking lower
• FY11 net profit down 44%, in line with expectations
• Higher provisions for losses from shipbuilding and offshore in 4Q11 eroded positive surprise from shipping
• Pressure to top up order book could lead to unprofitable newbuild contracts for shipbuilding
• FY12-13F earnings cut by 21-27% on lower margin assumptions and higher interest burden, expect lower FY12 earnings
• Maintain Fully Valued and target of 88cts.

Hyflux: Upping fair value to S$1.55; HOLD (OCBC)

Hyflux Ltd posted a much better-than-expected FY11 showing, with revenue of S$482.0m coming 10% and 3% above our and consensus forecast respectively; net profit of S$53.0m was also 7% and 11% above. Hyflux also declared a final dividend of S$0.021, bringing the full-year payout to S$0.0277, down from the S$0.0417 in FY10. Going forward, we expect Hyflux to focus more on Asia, especially Singapore, as the short-term outlook for MENA remains uncertain. In view of the better-than-expected results, we are modestly bumping up our FY12 estimates by 1.4-6.0%. We also raise our fair value from S$1.28 to S$1.55, based on 18x FY12F EPS (versus 15x previously). But given the limited upside, we maintain our HOLD rating.

CapitaLand: Special dividend surprise (Macq)

CapitaLand
Close Price* 14 Feb 12 S$2.90
12-month target S$ 3.77
Upside/Downside % 30.0
Valuation S$ 4.72
Special dividend surprise
Event
 CapitaLand reported 4Q11 net profits of S$476.6m (-20% YoY), EPS of 11.2 cents at 7:18am this morning. Adjusting for revaluation gains of S$254.7m and net portfolio gains of S$63.4m, the core net profit of S$158.5m was higher than our expectation of S$113.2 m. CapitaLand rewarded shareholders with a special dividend of 2.0 cents, making a total dividend of 8.0 cents, from 6.0 cents in FY10. Outperform maintained.

ECS ICT Berhad: 4Q Results within expectations(Mercury)

ECS ICT Berhad
Market Price: RM1.40
Target price: RM1.55

“4Q Results within expectations”
The group recorded 4Q/FY11 recorded revenue of RM341.8 million, higher by 8.3% y-o-y. This was due to higher revenue from its Enterprise Systems business segment. The group’s 4Q/FY11 NPAT of RM10.5 million was better by 25.4% y-o-y, mainly due to the better profit contribution from Enterprise Systems and also reduced interest expenses.

Sterling second-quarter performance by YTL Corp

The Star Online > Business
Saturday February 25, 2012
Sterling second-quarter performance by YTL Corp

By THOMAS HUONG
huong@thestar.com.my

PETALING JAYA: YTL Corp Bhd posted a 44.6% year-on-year jump in net profit to RM237.4mil for its second quarter ended Dec 31, 2011 compared with RM164.2mil a year earlier.

YTL Power : Lower dividends(Hwang)

YTL Power International
HOLD RM1.90
Price Target : RM 2.20
Lower dividends
• 1HFY12 result in line, but DPS was lower q-o-q
• New power plant in Malaysia and potential acquisitions are longer term catalysts
• Maintain Hold on reasonable valuation

Hunza: Run-of-The-Mill Numbers(OSK)

Hunza
NEUTRAL 
Price RM1.57
Fair Value RM1.67
Previous RM1.67
Run-of-The-Mill Numbers

Hunza’s 1HFY12 results came in below our expectations, with its 1HFY12 net profit only accounting for about 42% of our FY12 full-year forecast. Revenue was down by 44.2% y-o-y, primarily attributable to lower contribution from its property development division due to the lack of new launches in the past few years. Core PBT was down by 32.3% in spite of the improved margin arising from higher selling prices for its Gurney Paragon project. As we expect a similar performance for 2HFY12, we trim our FY12 net profit forecast by 7.1%. We maintain our Neutral call with an unchanged FV of RM1.67 based on 0.65x FY12 P/NTA.

Invest in Asian Markets Now?

Friday, February 24, 2012

中資銀行融資壓力上升

中資銀行融資壓力上升

(上海24日訊)儘管貿易和房地產市場表現低迷需要銀行業擴大貸款規模予以扶持,但中國銀行業當前正面臨國內外融資成本上升的困擾。

HI-P: management is confident on prospects (Limtan)

HI-P
S$0.93-HIPS.SI
 4Q ’11 profit of $9.43mln (-74%) came in below management’s guidance of $15mln despite help from $12.8mln other income due to greater than expected pricing pressure and costs inflation in China.

 But management is confident on prospects, expecting to spend $180mln on capex this year, up from only $66mln last year and $31mln the year before. This is expected to contribute to their performance in 2H 2012.

次季开始复苏 友尼森下半年走强

次季开始复苏 友尼森下半年走强
Created 02/24/2012 - 12:16
(吉隆坡23日讯)2011财年第四季净亏265万7000令吉后,分析员料友尼森(Unisem,5005,主板科技股)会于今年次季开始复苏,并在下半年达致强劲的表现。

达证券行分析员引述友尼森管理层指出,该公司的一些客户已开始在填补库存量,因晶圆凸块(wafer bumping)、晶圆级芯片封装(WLSCP)和覆晶(flip-chip)服务的询问与预订增加。

產業重估盈餘1.08億‧UOA發展末季賺1.4億

產業重估盈餘1.08億‧UOA發展末季賺1.4億
Created 02/24/2012 - 11:29

(吉隆坡23日訊)UOA發展(UOADEV,5200,主板產業組)對旗下產業展開重新估值行動,該公司截至去年杪的未稽查淨賬面值為5千770萬令吉,經過重估後價值為1億6千550萬令吉,共取得1億零780萬令吉的重估盈餘。

馬股旺了‧大亨動作頻仍引關注

馬股旺了‧大亨動作頻仍引關注
Created 02/24/2012 - 17:44

(吉隆坡24日訊)目前馬股市況盛旺高企,適合上市公司進行企業重組計劃,以汲取旺市產生利好優勢,使本地一些企業大亨控制的財團已是“蠢蠢欲動”,以財團整體優勢更頻密地進行企業動作,並有助刺激馬股今年首半年持續熱絡走高。

Bulk-ship operators get aggressive as costs dip

Business Times - 24 Feb 2012
Bulk-ship operators get aggressive as costs dip
Panamax charter prices in Atlantic drop the most in 19 months on Wednesday

(LONDON) Operators of ships that haul dry-bulk commodities are 'more aggressive' in reaching agreements with customers to employ vessels amid a glut of carriers, said ICAP Shipping International Ltd.

HPH Trust puts faith in ports' scale, reliability

Business Times - 24 Feb 2012
HPH Trust puts faith in ports' scale, reliability
It sees boon from bigger ships, more sharing of vessels
By LYNN KAN
BIGGER vessels, more shipping lines sharing vessels - all this only bodes well for the ports held by Hutchison Port Holdings (HPH) Trust, said its trustee-manager's CEO in an interview with BT.

Cosco (S) full-year profit down 44%

Business Times - 24 Feb 2012
Cosco (S) full-year profit down 44%
By JOYCE HOOI
COSCO Corporation (Singapore) suffered a 44 per cent drop in full-year net profit on the back of higher costs in its shipyard operations and higher taxes.

NOL sinks 8 cents to $1.345 after posting huge losses

Business Times - 24 Feb 2012
NOL sinks 8 cents to $1.345 after posting huge losses
Shipping giant's deficits worse than expected
By LYNN KAN
MORIBUND full-year results brought Neptune Orient Lines down to earth with its share price plummeting eight cents to $1.345 by the end of yesterday's trading session.

The shipping and logistics giant not only reversed into the red for the 2011 full year but also posted worse than expected losses.

Removing commodity traders from Top Picks (CIMB)

Removing commodity traders from Top Picks
We remove Olam and Wilmar from of our Top Picks after disappointing guidance. Wilmar expects overcapacity to cloud the outlook forits China crushing business. Its4Q11results weredragged downby weak demandin Europe–a problemthat still persists today.

Tiger Airways: Two reasons to roar (DMG)

Tiger Airways: Two reasons to roar
(NEUTRAL, S$0.78, TP S$0.73)
Tiger Airways has announced the re-activation of Mandala Airline’s Air Operator’s Certificate (AOC), with flights set to commence in Apr2012. 33%-owned Mandala will use seven out of Tiger’s eight A320s due to be delivered in FY13. Over in Australia, Tiger Australia stands to benefit as Air Australia, which is based out of Brisbane files for bankruptcy. We think this might lead to Tiger adopting Brisbane as its second base. As previously mentioned in our previous note, Tiger needs a second base in Australia to fully utilise its fleet of ten as its current base at Tullamarine Airport can only accommodate seven. We maintain NEUTRAL on the stock with an unchanged TP of S$0.73, premised at 2.5x FY13F P/B.

Genting Singapore: 4Q11: Rolling good times ahead (UOBKH)

Genting Singapore PLC –
Share Price S$1.67
Target Price S$1.89
Upside +13.5%

Results
• In line with expectations. Genting Singapore (GENS) reported a 4Q11 adjusted EBITDA of S$398.8 (+6% qoq), bringing its full-year adjusted EBITDA to S$1,647.8m (+16% yoy), within our expectations of S$1,630m. Resorts World Sentosa (RWS) saw EBITDA contract by 2% qoq to S$644.8m attributable to a qoq contraction in both the VIP and mass market segments.

Hyflux: Result lifted by Tuas but still missing new orders (CIMB)

Hyflux
Current S$1.58
Target S$1.23
Result lifted by Tuas but still missing new orders

Evenafter stripping off the one-timegain on divestment, FY11 resultscame off as good given the low expectations.The new S$88m enhancement work on the JV side adds cheer,but outlook for the business remains challenging without new projectswins.

NOL: V-shaped recovery in the offing? (CIMB)

Neptune Orient Lines
Current S$1.43
Target S$1.65
V-shaped recovery in the offing?

NOL’s 4Q11 core net loss was 66% more than our forecast, while itsfull-year loss was 36% more than expected, on higher-than-expected unit costs.We expect the market to ignore this disappointment because carriers will be pushingrates higher in the coming months.

AirAsia: FY11 earnings in-line; waiting for catalysts (Nomura)

AirAsia
Rating Remains Neutral
Target price Remains MYR 3.59
Closing price February 22, 2012 MYR 3.65
FY11 earnings in-line; waiting for catalysts

Normalised earnings in-line; oil price weighs on bottom-line but yield improvements a positive
AirAsia’s 4QFY11 adjusted NPAT of RM280mn (ex-gain on disposal) was broadly in-line with our expectations of a seasonal recovery in airtraffic for the quarter. Loads improved 5ppt sequentially to 82% (unchanged y-y), while more importantly, yields (revenue / ASK) recovered 13% q-q and 2% y-y (even though y-y comparison might not be like-to-like due to ancillary reclassification, which has lowered revenues in 2H11).

YTL Land: Size Matters (Hwang)

YTL Land
Size Matters
HOLD RM1.08
Price Target : RM1.30

• Results in line, stronger growth with contribution from Capers & Sentosa Cove
• New launches to leverage on strong execution track record & branding
• Maintain Hold & RNAV-based TP of RM1.30

YTL Power : Dismal dividends; downgrade to Hold(MIB)

Hold (from Buy)
Share price: RM1.90
Target price: RM2.05 (from RM2.02)

Dividends disappoint again. YTLP„s results were within expectations. That said, we are disappointed that it declared a second interim tax exempt DPS of only 0.9375sen or -50% QoQ as it conserves cash for M&As. We slash our dividend forecasts which now imply just 2.5% net yield. We also downgrade the stock to a Hold as there is currently only an 8% upside potential and with dividends unlikely to surprise to the upside. We tweak our DCF-based TP to RM2.05 (+1%).

CHINA COSCO (01919) target cut to HK$3.5 by Merrill Lynch on lowered earnings forecasts

Merrill Lynch reported on CHINA COSCO (01919) stating its Underperform rating and target $3.5 with the following details:

A sharper than expected deterioration of container shipping rates over the last six weeks cause us to deepen our loss forecasts for 2011-12. We now look for net losses of Rmb-6.2bn and Rmb-3.1bn respectively. This compares to consensus loss estimates at Rmb-5.6bn and Rmb-1.4bn. Chronic oversupply and slowing global trade are likely to cause a second year of deep losses in the container
segment. We reduce our price objective by 3% from HK$3.65 to HK$3.50.

曾淵滄專欄 2012 02 24: 航運股要趁低潮撈

航運股要趁低潮撈
航運股很可能是這場國際金融海嘯後復蘇得最慢的板塊,以中國遠洋( 1919)為例, 07年最高峯時,股價達 40.8元,至 08年最低潮,股價僅 2.55元。其後的反彈高位是在 09年 8月,也只有 12.78元,隨後再度輾轉回跌至 2.8元,幾乎回到金融海嘯最嚴重時期的股價。近兩個月的回升,離 09年 8月的 12.78元仍然有很大距離,理由當然是因為航運業仍然處於低潮。

中远投资去年净利大跌44%

干散货船运的利润降低和船厂运营成本增加,中远投资(Cosco)截至去年底全年净利大跌44%。集团预计今年的业务和营运会更艰难和充满挑战。

  中远投资昨日公布2011财年业绩,营收同比增加8%至41亿6292万元。不过,净利下跌44%至1亿3967万元,每股盈利也下挫44%至6.24分,每股净资产值为58.11分。董事会建议派发每股3分的免税股息。

Hyflux: Weak 11 results; No sig. orders in 2H11 (Nomura)

Hyflux
Rating Remains Reduce
Target price Remains SGD 1.00
Closing price February 22, 2012 SGD 1.58
Weak 11 results; No sig. orders in 2H11; Reduce

Hyflux’s FY11 results came in at S$4.3cents (basic EPS), down 59% YoY, in-line with our/consensus est. of S$4.5cents/S$4.3cents, respectively. The weak results was due to (1) a 15% YoY drop in revenue to S$482mn; (2) a 35% YoY rise in depreciation, amortization and impairment cost to $37mn, (3) a 34.8% YoY rise in finance cost to S$23mn and; (4) a payment of S$12mn of preference dividends. Gearing remains comfortable at 18% (vs. 1H11’s 7%), largely due to the issue of preference shares during 1H11.

OUE: Strong earnings growth ahead (UOBKH)

Overseas Union Enterprise
Share Price S$2.53
Target Price S$2.90
Upside +14.6%
: Strong earnings growth ahead

Results
• Results in line. Overseas Union Enterprise (OUE) reported 2011 net profit of S$335.7m (-56.5% yoy). Excluding fair-value gains and impairment losses, core earnings of about S$117m were in line with our expectations. During the year, the group booked fair value gains of S$249m from OUE Bayfront.

Genting Singapore: Gaining share in VIP segment (CIMB)

Genting Singapore
Current S$1.67
Target S$1.85
Gaining share in VIP segment

Genting Singapore’s market-share gainsin 4Q after two quarters of slippage are a welcome change.Operations should gain further traction with new accommodation, more complete product offerings and a step-up in marketing.

Cache Logistics Trust:High degree of predictability in turbulent times (CIMB)

Cache Logistics Trust
Outperform; TP S$1.15
Price @21/02/12: S$0.995
52-week range (SGD): 0.910-1.010
High degree of predictability in turbulent times

Recommendation
• Cache Logistics attended our Corporate Focus Series Lunch Talk yesterday. Despite no lunch being provided, interest was strong and the Company’s poor CEO was engaged by the audience till nearly 2.00pm.

CapitaCommercial Trust: Entrench in Tanjong Pagar (DBSV)

CapitaCommercial Trust
BUY S$1.17 STI : 2,995.59
Price Target : 12-Month S$ 1.30 (Prev S$ 1.36)
Entrench in Tanjong Pagar
• Acquires 20 Anson Road at NPI yield of 4% including a $17.1m stabilisation sum
• Strong cash position to fund acquisition, a 4-7% boost to FY12/13 yields
• Maintain BUY at a lower TP of S$1.30

Unisem: Still unable to take flight (CIMB)

Unisem
Current RM1.33
Target RM1.00
Still unable to take flight

Although Unisem sounded upbeat about a pick-up in conditions in 2Q12 during its FY11 results briefing, we think that sentiment will remain weak due to the subdued global economy, poor order visibility and price competition.

MISC: 3Q11 pre-exceptional earnings slip into red (Nomura)

MISC
Rating Remains Neutral
Target price Remains MYR 6.74
Closing price February 22, 2012 MYR 5.80
3Q11 pre-exceptional earnings slip into red

Disappointing 3Q11 results due to larger losses from petroleum, chemical and liners
MISC reported disappointing 3Q11 results (October to December), with 3Q11 net earnings slipping into red of -MYR1.7bn from a 2Q11 net profit of MYR141mn. This 3Q result, however, was distorted by exceptional losses. Yet even stripping out the exceptional loss of MYR1.7bn (which mainly comprised: (1) a MYR1.5bn provision on the exit of the liner business; and (2) a MYR266mn impairment loss on petroleum and chemical vessels), the company reported a pre-exceptional loss of MYR40mn (vs a MYR54mn pre-exceptional profit in 2Q11).

CapitaLand: 4Q11 above Forecast; Slower Sales Momentum Ahead (Morgan)

CapitaLand
Shr price, close (Feb 14, 2012) S$2.90
52-Week Range S$3.53-2.19

4Q11 above Forecast; Slower Sales Momentum Ahead
Quick Comment – Maintain UW. Management’s 2012 outlook for home sales in China and Singapore is muted, in our view; the only bright spot is secular demand
growth in the China retail market. China malls are largely held through listed subsidiary CapitaMalls Asia.

HI-P: Expect improvement in FY12 (OCBC)

HI-P INTERNATIONAL
- FY11 PATMI below consensus estimates
- 2.4 S cents dividend declared
- Guiding for higher revenue and net profit in FY12

Revenue growth but earnings decline for FY11
Hi-P International (Hi-P) reported FY11 revenue growth of 25.7% to S$1,203.9m (+25.7%), ahead of Bloomberg consensus’ estimate of S$1119.8m. But PATMI of S$45.0m (-33.1%) was ~7.2% below the street’s expectations. A first and final cash dividend of 2.4 S cents was declared, lower than FY10’s 3.6 S cents. This translates into a payout ratio of 49.2% and yield of 2.6%.

US fund invests in Sunway REIT

The Star Online > Business
Friday February 24, 2012
US fund invests in Sunway REIT

PETALING JAYA: US-based fund manager Capital Income Builder has emerged as a new substantial shareholder in Sunway Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT).

YTL Land Q2 net profit jumps 195%

The Star Online > Business
Friday February 24, 2012
YTL Land Q2 net profit jumps 195%

PETALING JAYA: YTL Land and Development Bhd posted a 195% year-on-year jump in net profit to RM6.4mil for its second quarter ended Dec 31, 2011, compared with RM2.2mil a year earlier.

CapitaCommercial Trust: Bite-sized Grade-A office acquisition (UOBKH)

CapitaCommercial Trust
Share Price S$1.17
Target Price S$1.15
Downside -1.7%
(Previous TP S$1.10)
Bite-sized Grade-A office acquisition
What’s New
• Bite-sized Grade-A office acquisition. CapitaCommercial Trust (CCT) announced the acquisition of Twenty Anson, a Grade-A office tower in Tanjong Pagar for S$430m or S$2,121psf from a real estate fund managed by LaSalle Investment Management.

OUE: Large gaps to fill (DMG)

OUE: Large gaps to fill
(NEUTRAL, S$2.50, TP S$2.36)
FY11 results no surprises, 11 cents dividend declared. FY11 revenue of S$332.4m, +54.2%YoY (4Q11 revenue S$105.5m, +63%YoY) mainly driven by acquisitions (Crown Plaza Changi Airport and DBS Towers). Significant net profit decline of $335.7m (-56.5%YoY) was dragged by lower revaluation gains and higher debt costs in FY11. 11 cents dividend was announced along with FY11 results (in addition to the interim 2 cents dividend declared in 1H11).

AirAsia: Seasonally stronger quarter (Hwang)

AirAsia
Seasonally stronger quarter
FULLY VALUED RM3.65
Price Target : RM 3.10
• 4Q11 core earnings came in at RM223m; above our expectations but below consensus
• Driven by higher load factor of 82% and 11% q-o-q increase in revenue per kilometre
• Maintain Fully Valued and RM3.10 TP

YTL Power likely to be dragged by YES WiMAX

YTL Power likely to be dragged by YES WiMAX
YTL Power International Bhd
(Feb 21, RM1.89)
Maintain buy with downgraded target price RM2.20 from RM2.50: YTL Power will release its 2QFY12 results tomorrow.

We expect its annualised 2QFY12 earnings to fall below expectations at RM1 billion to RM1.2 billion, accounting for less than 80% of both our and consensus full-year forecasts respectively.

NOL: Loss greater than expected; maintain SELL (UOBKH)

Neptune Orient Lines
Share Price S$1.43
Target Price S$1.06
Dowwnside -25.9%
(Previous TP S$0.91)
2011: Loss greater than expected; maintain SELL

Results
• Neptune Orient Lines (NOL) 2011 results were substantially below ours and consensus estimates. Revenue was US$9,211m (-2% yoy). Net loss of US$478m was posted vs a net income of US$461m in 2010. No dividend was declared.

Genting Singapore: Positioning for bigger things? (DBSV)

Genting Singapore
Positioning for bigger things?
BUY S$1.665
Price Target : S$ 2.05

• Results in-line, as better VIP luck factor mitigated steep rolling chip contraction. Maiden DPS of 1 cent.
• Raising perpetual bonds, likely for new large overseas ventures
• Maintain Buy, and SOP-based TP of S$2.05

Off the Charts: Oil Spike Signals Recession Charts: Oil Spike Signals Recession


CapitaLand: setting dividend policy (JPM)

CapitaLand
Price: S$2.86
Price Target: S$3.40
Previous: S$2.80
FY11 results: setting dividend policy

CapitaLand reported headline PATMI of S$1.06 billion for FY11, ahead of consensus but below J.P. Morgan estimates. Management declared total
dividend of S$0.08/share and set dividend policy for a minimum 30% payout on PATMI excluding revaluations and impairments. We retain our Overweight rating and raise our Dec-12 price target to S$3.40/share. We believe that the normalization of risk aversion towards China real estate, coupled with the expectation of better performance from CapitaMalls Asia (CMA SP), will remain key near term share price drivers. That said, our preferred pick within the CapitaLand group companies is CMA.

Is China the New Greece?

REITs: Both benefits and costs

REITs: Both benefits and costs
by Tan Chin Keong 04:46 AM Feb 24, 2012
Recent newspaper articles have increasingly laid blame on real estate investment trusts (REITs) for the rising occupancy costs in retail and industrial properties.

Why HDB resale flat prices will not fall any time soon

Why HDB resale flat prices will not fall any time soon
by Colin Tan 04:46 AM Feb 24, 2012
When property agency bosses at a seminar early this month predicted a 3 to 5 per cent fall in the prices of Housing and Development Board (HDB) resale flats for this year, possibly declining up to 10 per cent should economic conditions worsen, it prompted a few prospective buyers to ask me whether this was news too good to be true.

Foreigners snapping up private homes

Foreigners snapping up private homes
by Millet Enriquez 04:46 AM Feb 24, 2012
SINGAPORE - The number of private residential properties bought by foreigners rose 20.4 per cent to a record high last year, despite a sharp 18.6-per-cent decline in total private home sales, according to a report from DTZ Research.

Europe's banks bleed from Greek debt crisis

Europe's banks bleed from Greek debt crisis
Updated 12:11 AM Feb 24, 2012LONDON/PARIS - Greece's debt problems drove a slew of heavy losses across the European banking sector on Thursday, and bosses warned the euro zone crisis would continue to threaten earnings.

Cosco 2011 net profit falls 44%

Cosco 2011 net profit falls 44%
04:46 AM Feb 24, 2012SINGAPORE - China-based shipbuilder Cosco Corp (Singapore) said yesterday its net profit for last year fell 44 per cent to S$139.7 million, due mainly to lower profit contributions from dry bulk shipping and higher costs incurred in its shipyard operations.

YTL net profit up 10.4pc in 2011

YTL net profit up 10.4pc in 2011
Roziana Hamsawi bt@nstp.com.my
2012/02/24
KUALA LUMPUR: YTL Corp Bhd has registered a net profit of RM489.2 million in the six months ended December 31 2011, up 10.4 per cent from the previous corresponding period.

MAS sets course to fly back to the black

MAS sets course to fly back to the black
2012/02/24
KUALA LUMPUR: The top priority for Malaysia Airlines now is to stem its huge losses and return to profitability soon, besides striving to regain its stature as a preferred premium airline with better services and newer aircraft, group chief executive officer (CEO) Ahmad Jauhari Yahya says.

Thursday, February 23, 2012

MIIF: 9.5% yield. What’s not to like? (AM)

MACQUARIE INTERNATIONAL INFRASTRUCTURE FUND LIMITED
No news in the financial results:
As mentioned before, the most important quarter for MIIF is 3Q when the bulk of its income flows in from the assets. FY2011 revenues are up 33% to $59.2m, and the adjusted net profit is up 47.4% to $47.9m, both exactly in line.

S$23,000 stolen from 17 DBS Bank accounts

S$23,000 stolen from 17 DBS Bank accounts
By Julia Ng | Posted: 23 February 2012 2204 hrs
Singapore: DBS has been hit by another round of unauthorised ATM withdrawals. This time, 17 customers were affected and they lost S$23,000.

In a statement on Thursday night, DBS Bank said that on 19 February, the bank received calls from a handful of customers who were alerted to unauthorised ATM withdrawals in Singapore, after receiving real-time SMS alerts from the bank.

《投資良機何處尋2012》下)

FSM投資論壇﹕《投資良機何處尋2012》研討會精彩回顧(下)

馬航燃眉之急先止虧 獲利後考慮新航線

(吉隆坡23日訊)去年9月受委馬航(MAS,3786,主要板貿易)集團總執行長的阿末佐哈禮躊躇滿志,首要任務是阻止財政“血流成河”,盡快重返盈利軌道,不會在無利可圖前推出新航線。

 阿末佐哈禮接受“馬新社”專訪時說,最近的高階管理層調整和果斷終止航線,都是帶領馬航于2013或2014年以后恢復賺錢能力的多項策略之一。

《投資良機何處尋2012》(上)

FSM投資論壇﹕《投資良機何處尋2012》研討會精彩回顧(上)

马航“止血”要转盈

马航“止血”要转盈
Created 02/23/2012 - 19:20

(吉隆坡23日讯)马航(MAS,3786,主板贸服股)总执行长阿末昭哈里指出,马航当务之急就是要“止血”,并尽快转亏为盈。

他说,马航近期的管理层更迭以及激烈的航线削减,就是要使马航在2013-2014财年开始转亏为盈的策略之一。

歐央行閂水喉股市有難?

2012年02月23日 03:09 畢老林
歐央行閂水喉股市有難?

《信報》投資者日記:......財經網站Zero Hedge 2月21日引用投資機構Diapason的研究,詳列美、歐、日、中、英、瑞士六大央行資產負債表變化,發現過去四年全球央行資產負債表合計擴張了一倍,而此前五年,六大央行資產負債表早就翻了一番【圖2】;說股市「水漲船高」,是錯不到哪裏的。

油價禁運飆升 反噬歐美經濟

2012年02月23日 03:03 信報社評
油價禁運飆升 反噬歐美經濟

......如今伊朗繼續以強硬姿態,威脅擴大對歐盟國家的石油供應,令石油市場不斷蒙上陰影,並以石油武器與美國周旋到底。據國際能源署的資料,伊朗對英法的石油出口額很小,佔總出口量不超過百分之三,經濟損失有限,且油價飆升足以彌補缺損之數。可以說,此舉主要是一種恫嚇性戰略。

仙股炒風

仙股炒風
評論 2012-02-23 11:27
目前馬股低價仙股炒風方興未艾。這些仙股的實質股價起落不大,惟由於計算基礎極低,以百分比為准,漲幅就非常可觀,達到數十巴仙甚至超過100%,也是等閑的事。

若從好的角度看,要恭喜炒股的股東,不論是大股東,或是散戶,他們終於可以套利套現唱豐收了。

Reit, stock yields reflect risk nature

Business Times - 23 Feb 2012
Reit, stock yields reflect risk nature
By MICHELLE TAN
IT seems the onset of the dragon year has driven home the notion that risk and return on assets are directly correlated.

SIA Cargo cuts capacity by 20%

Business Times - 23 Feb 2012
SIA Cargo cuts capacity by 20%
It cites depressed demand across all markets, stubbornly high fuel prices
By VEN SREENIVASAN
LOSS-MAKING Singapore Airlines Cargo has cut capacity by 20 per cent in response to persistent weakness in demand and stubbornly high fuel prices.

CCT acquires Twenty Anson for $430m

Business Times - 23 Feb 2012
CCT acquires Twenty Anson for $430m
By MINDY TAN
IN its first major purchase since the start of its portfolio reconstitution strategy, CapitaCommercial Trust (CCT) yesterday said it had acquired Twenty Anson for $430 million, or $2,121 per square foot (psf) of net lettable area.

Genting Singapore posts Q4 net profit of $262m

Business Times - 23 Feb 2012
Genting Singapore posts Q4 net profit of $262m
Full-year earnings cross $1b mark; first-ever dividend, one cent, declared
By GRACE LEONG
GENTING Singapore's 'extra prudent' credit policy appears to have paid off, as sharply lower bad debt provisions in the fourth quarter coupled with stronger earnings from its integrated resort and lower taxes helped push the company back into the black.

NOL suffers bloodbath, unveils US$500m cost cuts

Business Times - 23 Feb 2012
NOL suffers bloodbath, unveils US$500m cost cuts
Q4 sinks US$320m into the red, full-year loss at US$478m
By LYNN KAN
(SINGAPORE) Neptune Orient Lines' 'disappointing' set of full-year and final quarter losses led its new chief to declare a US$500 million cost-cutting programme at the shipping and logistics group.

Stock selection is key in rally

If history is any guide, the current run-up by small-cap stocks in Singapore may last several months more, pending any nasty surprises, according to analysts. But this means stock selection becomes ever more important as the risk of these lower liners pulling back suddenly, and substantially, has increased, considering that a number of them are little-known companies that lack a proven business track record.

Malaysia Airlines' top piority to stem losses, says group CEO

Malaysia Airlines' top piority to stem losses, says group CEO
KUALA LUMPUR (Feb 23): The top priority for Malaysian Airline System Bhd (MAS) now is to stem its huge losses and a return to profitability soon, besides striving to regain its stature as a preferred premium airline with better services and newer aircraft, its Group Chief Executive Officer (CEO), Ahmad Jauhari Yahya, said on Thursday.

More attractive yields from smaller REITs

Hektar REIT (RM1.37) was among the earliest real estate investment trusts to be listed on Bursa Malaysia — in December 2006 — and the first that focuses on properties used primarily for retail purposes.

However, its attractiveness to investors may have been diminished with the subsequent listings of larger retail-focused REITs such as Sunway REIT, CapitaMalls Malaysia Trust (CMMT) and most recently, Pavilion REIT. These three REITs boast of assets worth over RM11 billion combined. And with significantly bigger unit holders’ capital (total number of units in circulation), they offer investors greater liquidity.

Underscoring their appeal, all three REITs are currently trading well above their net asset valuations — with price-to-net assets multiples ranging from 1.19 to 1.32 times. By contrast, Hektar is trading below its net assets of RM1.48 per unit.

Perhaps in recognition of the growing disparity, Hektar recently proposed the acquisition of two shopping malls in the trust’s first expansion since 2008.

The Landmark Central Shopping Centre and Central Square Shopping Centre are both located in Kedah, in Kulim and Sungai Petani respectively. The shopping malls are valued at a combined RM181 million and have net lettable area totalling more than 580,000 sq ft.




Upon completion, targeted by 2Q12, Hektar’s total assets will be boosted to just under RM1 billion. To part-finance the acquisition, the trust has proposed a rights issue to raise some RM98.4 million. This would expand its total units in circulation to an estimated 400 million or so — assuming the rights issue is made on a basis of about one-for-four. The bigger unit holders’ capital would also help improve liquidity for the trust.

Unit prices for Sunway REIT, CMMT and Pavilion REIT have all done quite well as defensive investments amid uncertainties in the broader market and global economy. As a result of their prevailing premium valuations, yields have narrowed. Based on our forecast, gross yields are estimated to range from as low as 5.2% for Pavilion REIT to a higher 6% for Sunway REIT. The yield for CMMT is estimated at 5.5%.

In this respect, Hektar is expected to give better returns to investors. Its units will trade ex-entitlement for a final income distribution of three sen per unit on Feb 24. For the current year, we estimate total income distribution of roughly 10.6 sen per unit, up slightly from the 10.5 sen unit in 2011. That translates into a yield of 7.8% at the prevailing price of RM1.37, which compares favourably against the estimated yields for its three larger peers.




To recap, Hektar’s existing portfolio consists of three suburban shopping malls, Subang Parade in Subang Jaya, Selangor, Mahkota Parade in Malacca and Wetex Parade in Muar, Johor. The three investment properties — with total net lettable area of some 1.1 million sq ft — are valued at a combined RM822 million.

Despite rising competition, all three shopping malls appear to be holding their own. Occupancy rates for the malls range from 95% to 100% and averaged 97.5% at end-2011. Total revenue was up 4.4% last year to RM94.9 million, thanks to positive rental reversions and the creation of new retail spaces.

Quill Capita is also trading well below net asset valuations
Quill Capita Trust’s yields are also relatively attractive, on the back of prices that are well below its net asset valuations. Net assets stood at RM1.29 per unit as at end-2011 — more than 16% above its current price of RM1.11.

Quill Capita’s income distribution has risen steadily through the years, from 6.5 sen per unit in 2007 to 8.3 sen last year. We estimate income distribution to total roughly 8.4 sen per unit in the current year. That translates into yields of about 7.6% at the prevailing price.

Concerns over the oversupply in office space and pressure on rentals are likely the key factors weighing on its unit price. On a positive note, the demand-supply situation for office space in Cyberjaya, where half of Quill Capita’s commercial/office buildings are located, is expected to remain fairly upbeat.

In addition, though generally associated with commercial properties, about a quarter of Quill Capita’s properties (in terms of valuations) are in fact retail-related, primarily Plaza Mont’Kiara and the Tesco building in Penang.

Quill Capita’s turnover grew a modest 1.4% to RM70.3 million last year while net profit (excluding fair value adjustments) was up by about 5.4% to RM34.3 million on the back of lower operating expenses.

The trust has not been as active in terms of assets acquisitions as some of the other listed REITs. Its last purchase was completed in 2008. Currently, the 10 properties in its portfolio are valued at a combined RM815 million. Gearing stood at some 37% as at end-2011.


Note: This report is brought to you by Asia Analytica Sdn Bhd, a licensed investment adviser. Please exercise your own judgment or seek professional advice for your specific investment needs. We are not responsible for your investment decisions. Our shareholders, directors and employees may have positions in any of the stocks mentioned.

This article appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, February 22, 2012.








Source/Extract/Excerpts/来源/转贴/摘录: www.theedgemalaysia.com
Publish date:22/02/12

AirAsia: Malaysia "Boleh"! (CIMB)

AirAsia
Current RM3.65
Target RM5.00
Malaysia „Boleh‟!
AirAsia’s 4Q core net profit beat our previewed number by 5% as the Malaysian operations outperformed by 8%, which more than offset an 18% shortfall from associates. The Malaysian business benefited from good yield expansion, strong demand and high loads.

MISC: Thirsty for Turnaround (HLG)

MISC (HOLD _, EPS _)
Price Target: RM5.57 («)
Share price: RM5.80

Thirsty for Turnaround

Results
_ In line - Reported 3Q FY12/11 core earnings of RM14.7m, taking FY12/11 (9M only due to change in year end to Dec) core earning to RM272.5m, as compare to HLIB’s RM283.1m, but higher than consensus estimates of losses.

Hyflux to Expand in China: CFO


The End of Cheap China


Will STI Stand Above 3000 Firmly With Greece Problems Out Of The Way?

Will STI Stand Above 3000 Firmly With Greece Problems Out Of The Way?
By Daniel Loh
Based on the teachings of Asian Leading Investment Guru, Mr Hu Li Yang, the only way the Straits Times Index (STI) will continue its movement upwards is when it closes firmly above 3,000 points for at least 3 days without pulling back. 20 February was the first day. Then it travelled to another box and stayed there for at least three months. In the new box, the STI is expected to continue its ups and downs. (Please refer to the chart).

Mixed Reactions To Greece’s Second Bailout Win

Mixed Reactions To Greece’s Second Bailout Win
By Choo Hao Xiang
Eurozone finance ministers have given Greece the nod to the long-awaited rescue fund amounting to 130 billion euros that will seal up Athens’ immediate repayment needs. Greece has a 14.5 billion euros bond repayment due on 20 March. Following a marathon talk through the night in Brussels, the Eurozone officials came to an agreement which would help prevent a chaotic default by Greece.

Genting Singapore May Benefit From Accommodation Shortage

Genting Singapore May Benefit From Accommodation Shortage
By Jade Lee
Shares of Genting Singapore jumped as much as 6 percent to $1.68 since early February, as strong fourth-quarter performance of Marina Bay Sands (MBS) increased positive sentiment about the overall gaming market in the city state.

Genting Singapore: Lukewarm end to 2011 (MIB)

Genting Singapore
Buy (unchanged)
Share price: SGD1.665
Target price: SGD2.10 (unchanged)
Lukewarm end to 2011

Look to 2012. 4Q11 and 2011 results were in line. Although GENS surprised with a single tier final DPS of SGD0.01, Resorts World Sentosa’s (RWS) 4Q11 mass market gross gaming revenue (GGR) and VIP volumes were uninspiring. That said, we maintain our estimates, Buy call and SGD2.10 TP as we are optimistic that the newly opened Equarius Hotel & Beach Villas will boost VIP volumes going forward. There is also the potential for GENS to undertake M&As.

TigerAirways: Mandala's AOC reactivated (CS)

Tiger Airways
Maintain UNDERPERFORM
Price (20 Feb 12 , S$) 0.78
TP (prev. TP S$) 0.55 (0.55)
Est. pot. % chg. to TP (29)
52-wk range (S$) 1.41–0.60
Mandala's AOC reactivated

● Tiger Airways 33% owned associate, Mandala Airways, just had its Air Operator’s Certificate (AOC) reactivated, paving the way for it to resume operations by April 2012.

Unisem: Turning Red (OSK)

Unisem
Price RM1.47
Fair Value RM1.21
Previous RM1.23
Turning Red

Unisem incurred a net loss of RM2.7m for 4QFY11 on the back of anaemic demand from upstream players which led to a lower sales volume. Full-year earnings came in at RM19.7m (-89.2% y-o-y), which fell short of our and consensus estimates and represented only 65% and 68% of the respective full-year profit forecasts. We gather that the sales of most semiconductor products industry-wide shrank (except for smartphones and tablets), prompting us to remain firm on our bearish view of the sector. We maintain our SELL call on the stock with a revised FV of RM1.21, based on 0.8x FY12 P/NTA.

Sarawak Oil Palms: First Among Equals (OSK)

Sarawak Oil Palms
Fair Value RM7.03
Price RM6.35
First Among Equals

We flew into Miri, Sarawak recently to meet up with Sarawak Oil Palms (SOP) management who brought us around its plantations. We liked what we saw during the trip, reinforcing our view that SOP is a well-run company with management competence rare for a plantation company its size. Coupled with one of the best tree age profiles in the industry, SOP is among our favourite plantation picks. Its new downstream venture will commence operations in April, thus removing its dependence on third-party refiners and providing SOP with closer access to end consumers. Maintain BUY with FV of RM7.03.

SIA: Freighter capacity cuts estimated to save S$35m in 4Q and S$230m in FY13 (UOBKH)

Singapore Airlines
Share Price S$10.94
Target Price S$11.90
Upside +8.8%
(Previous TP S$11.00)
What’s New
• Freighter capacity cut by 20%. Singapore Airlines (SIA) announced that it has cut capacity on its 13 B747 freighters by 20% due to “depressed demand across all markets”. SIA sees no improvement in 1H12 and conversely indicated that high fuel prices have pushed up operating costs. The capacity reductions are mainly for long-haul flights and involve reduction of flying hours. The airline did not indicate as to whether any aircraft will be grounded.

MISC: Challenges abound (MIB)

MISC
Sell (unchanged)
Share price: RM5.80
Target price: RM5.70 (unchanged)
Challenges abound

Maintain Sell with a RM5.70 TP, based on a 20% discount to SOP valuations. Results missed our forecast and consensus on a weak final quarter performance. We cut 2012-13 forecasts by 18% each on the back of a poor outlook for the petroleum, chemical and liner businesses over the next 24 months. While the share price has fallen 21% QoQ, a re-rating is still not on the table considering its negative prospects.

曾淵滄專欄 2012 02 23: 油魔來襲 嚇退 QE3

油魔來襲 嚇退 QE3
過去三年,供樓利率大幅下降,地產經紀不斷游說有意置業的人,說供樓平過交租。前日,政府公佈 2011年的人口普查結果,我們可以發現,雖然 2011年的樓價比 2001年高出許多,但是 2011年港人供樓每月開支中位數,卻由 11000元降至 8000元,樓價升了,供樓負擔下降了。相反的,租金開支的中位數則由 5300元增至 7500元,很接近供樓開支了,這是支撐樓價的最有力因素。

昨日港股又一次令一心等調整才入市的人失望,失望多幾次的人,肯定會失去耐性,高價追入,屆時才發現真正的調整開始了。

油价高涨运费走低 海皇轮船去年亏损近5亿美元

在石油价格高涨而运费走低的双重压力下,海皇轮船(NOL)第四季亏损额进一步扩大,并超出市场人士的预测。

  这家全球第六大集装箱船运公司昨天宣布,去年的第四季净亏损为3亿2000万美元。这导致2011年全年的净亏损扩大至4亿7800万美元。

嘉康信托4.3亿购办公楼Twenty Anson

嘉康信托(CapitaCommercial Trust)以4亿3000万元的价格,购入丹戎巴葛一带的办公楼Twenty Anson。
  按照Twenty Anson约20万2700平方英尺净可出租面积计算,收购价相等于每平方英尺2121元。嘉康信托将全面收购拥有Twenty Anson的特别用途公司(SPV)FirstOffice。收购所须费用将由信托的现存现金和银行贷款来支付。

凯发去年净利减少40%

凯发(Hyflux)去年集团全净利减少40%,从8851万元下跌至5303万元。
  集团的营业额减少了15%,由5亿6974万元下跌至4亿8198万元,这主要是因为集团在中东和北非市场的一些海水淡化项目已接近完工,使到贡献下跌。另外,集团在2011财年的脱售活动减少,影响了营业收入和盈利。

  凯发集团去年的每股净利为4.30分,每股资产值为60.6分。

Small/Mid Cap Post-Budget thoughts (DMG)

my 2¢ By Terence Wong, CFA
• Post-Budget thoughts
• Another tech company bites the dust

Post-Budget thoughts. The day after the Budget was announced by Finance Minister Tharman Shanmugaratnam, I bumped into Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong taking a leisurely stroll just outside my house. I took the opportunity to provide some feedback on the Budget. I didn’t want to take up too much of his personal time, so I zoomed in on what I thought was the most draconian – the reduction of the Dependency Ratio Ceilings (DRC). I understand that foreigners make up some one-third of our workforce, which sounds alarmingly high (it is probably one of the highest in the world), but many jobs are shunned by Singaporeans, chief of which are those in the construction sector.

US: still slowly, after all these years (DBSV)

US: still slowly, after all these years
If unemployment is really falling, why is the Fed talking about QE3?
Now consider labor markets. The good news is that the unemployment rate has fallen to 8.3% in Jan12 from 8.9% in Oct11. But if unemployment is falling so rapidly, why is the Fed still talking about inflation targeting and QE3?

HPH Trust: DPU above expectations; raise TP (DMG)

HUTCHISON PORT HOLDINGS TRUST
BUY 
Price US$0.745
Previous US$0.75
Target US$0.83
DPU above expectations; raise TP
Impressi ve cost control. HPH Trust (HPHT)’s FY11 DPU of 37.70HK¢ was 11% ahead of our forecast (33.80HK¢) but slightly below street estimate of 39.30HK¢. The better-than-expected DPU was attributed to HPHT’s impressive cost control and low interest rate. Following the results, we raise FY12F DPU by 9% due to lower interest rate on its debts and higher 2012 throughput volume growth of 6% and 3% for HIT and Yantian respectively. We are forecasting 47.22HK¢ (6.07US¢) dividend in FY12, which implies a yield of 8.1% at its last close. We upgrade our DCF-derived TP to US$0.83, based on 8% WACC and 2% long-term growth rate (for period beyond 2015). Maintain BUY.

CapitaLand: A harder climb ahead (DB)

CapitaLand
Price at 14 Feb 2012 (SGD) 2.90
Price target - 12mth (SGD) 2.95
52-week range (SGD) 3.50 - 2.21

A harder climb ahead; downgrade to Hold
Downgrading to Hold; re-rating drivers weaker prospectively
4Q core earnings were ahead of DB forecasts on the timing of development profit recognition. We have cut FY13 earnings by 13% on weaker residential sales both in Singapore and abroad. Capital recycling could be slower near term given the immaturity of the development pipeline and following a record S$11bn in acquisitions last year. The execution of 2011 acquisitions will be crucial given weaker macro conditions. Following the recent re-rating, valuations are no longer as attractive at a 26% discount to SOTP. Downgrade to Hold.

ECS ICT: High dividend yield stock (ECM)

ECS ICT
12-month upside potential Target price 1.70
Current price (as at 21 Feb) 1.40
Capital upside (%) 21
Net dividends (%) 5.7
Total return (%) 26.7
52-week range (RM) 1.13 – 1.66

High dividend yield stock
ECS ICT is a distributor of ICT products in Malaysia, and is thus a proxy to ICT spending in Malaysia. It announced its FY11 results last night, which places the stock on an FY11 PER of only 5.6x with a net cash per share of 56 sen! Its proposed dividend also translates into an attractive net dividend yield of 5.7%. We have not met with management and our Buy recommendation is purely based on publicly available information.

UEM Land : Key proxy to Malaysian property exposure (ECM)

UEM Land Holdings
12-month upside potential Target price 2.25
Current price (as at 16 Feb) 2.31
Capital upside (%) -2.6
Net dividends (%) -
Total return (%) -2.6
52-week range (RM) 1.58 – 3.00

Key proxy to Malaysian property exposure
UEM Land Holdings (UEML) is the country’s largest property player in terms of market capitalization of RM10.0bn and total asset of RM7.8bn. Its acquisition of Sunrise completed in early 2011 has improved its earnings outlook. We initiate coverage on UEM Land as we view positively its progress and developments in Nusajaya which should reach its “tipping point” by end 2012. However, we are concerned with Nusajaya’s ability to attract sufficient human traffic to the area as well as the sudden increase in development projects in Iskandar Malaysia (IM). Hence, we recommend a HOLD on the counter with target price based on UEML’s RNAV of RM2.25.

Yangzijiang: Strong sail against the wind (DBSV)

Yangzijiang
BUY S$1.31 STI : 3,021.19
Price Target : 12-Month S$ 1.55 (Prev S$ 1.25)
Strong sail against the wind
• Expect a strong set of FY11 results
• Contract momentum to resume in 2H after 3-4 quiet quarters
• Near term catalyst from possible entry into offshore market and growing shipbreaking activities
• Maintain BUY; TP raised to S$1.55; offers 18% upside potential and attractive dividend yield of 5%

CapitaMalls Asia: Up stakes in Japan assets (DBSV)

CapitaMalls Asia Limited
BUY S$1.64 STI : 3,021.19
Price Target : 12-month S$ 2.02 (Prev S$ 2.03)
Up stakes in Japan assets

• Acquires stakes in 3 assets for S$217m
• Earnings accretive and adds 1.5-2.5% to bottomline
• Maintain Buy with TP $2.02

Genting Singapore returns to black in Q4

Genting Singapore returns to black in Q4
by DOW JONES 04:46 AM Feb 23, 2012
SINGAPORE - Genting Singapore posted yesterday a fourth-quarter net profit of S$262 million compared with a S$150.3-million loss a year earlier, thanks to higher earnings from its integrated resort, as well as lower impairment losses and taxes.

Tiger Airways : Every cub has its day (DBSV)

Tiger Airways Holdings
BUY S$0.805
Upgrade from HOLD
Price Target : 12-Month S$ 1.01 (Prev S$ 0.81)
Every cub has its day
• Reactivation of Mandala’s AOC will give Tiger more flexibility in aircraft deployment in FY13
• Easier thus for Singapore operations to digest the excess capacity added in FY12
• Expect turnaround in 3Q-FY13, and upgrade Tiger to BUY with a higher TP of S$1.01

CEO: YTL Comms ‘always in talks’

The Star Online > Business
Thursday February 23, 2012
CEO: YTL Comms ‘always in talks’
No plan to consolidate, but will double size of business
edy@thestar.com.my
By EDY SARIF
KUALA LUMPUR: Wireless services provider YTL Communications Sdn Bhd, which offers the YES 4G service, says it is “always in talks” with its fellow industry players but has not moved beyond that.

AirAsia earnings in Q4 plummet 56pc

AirAsia earnings in Q4 plummet 56pc
2012/02/23
KUALA LUMPUR: Budget carrier, AirAsia Bhd said its fourth quarter earnings fell 56.4 per cent due to higher aircraft fuel expenses.
Net profit for three months ended December 31 2011 was RM135.7 million, down from RM311.1 million a year earlier.

Wednesday, February 22, 2012

Maersk’s change in mindset signals freight rate turnaround (CIMB)

Maersk’s change in mindset signals freight rate turnaround
The announcement by Maersk that it is not exercising its options for a third set of ten 18,000 teu ships and that it is cutting capacity on Asia-Europe by 9% raises the likelihood of at least partial success in the March/April freight rate restoration drive.

We, therefore, maintain our Trading Buy call on container shipping but remain Underweight on the dry bulk and tanker shipping sectors.

Greek Salvation (MIB)

Greek Salvation
Debt Restructuring & 2nd Bailout Deals
Two “positive” announcements from Brussels… The news headlines flashing out of the Eurozone yesterday were the announcement of a deal between private creditors and Greece on the latter’s sovereign debt restructuring, and the approval for Greece’s second bailout package worth EUR130b.

券商買進心頭好.楊忠禮能源次季收益 料介於10至12億

券商;MIDF證券研究
目標價:2.20令吉

 楊忠禮能源(YTLPOWR,6742,主要板基建)即將公佈的業績料繼續遭YES WiMAX寬頻業務稍微拖低,但海外公用事業料助抵銷損失,我們下修目標價,惟仍值得買進。

 該公司將于23日公佈2012財年第二季度財報,相信當季收益將介于10億至12億令吉之間,淨利持績受壓于YES WiMAX寬頻業務。

Neptune Orient seeks $629m cost cuts, higher cargo rates

NOL has biggest quarterly loss in a decade on rates

Neptune Orient Lines, owner of Asia’s No. 3 container line, posted its biggest quarterly loss in at least 10 years because of falling freight rates and higher fuel costs, reported Bloomberg.

Macquarie International Infrastructure posts full-year net income of $48.2m

Macquarie International Infrastructure Fund Limited (MIIF) has reported net income on an adjusted basis (net income) for the 12 months ended 31 December 2011 of $48.2 million, up $11 million from the prior corresponding period.

Strategy: Policy, Policy, Policy (phillip)

Strategy
Policy, Policy, Policy
In our morning market commentaries since 3rd Jan 2012 (see Morning Notes) we have only been positive on global equities in the short term as economic contractions eased and liquidity improved. This stands in contrast however to our larger trend outlook, where we have been maintaining a bearish stance as economies in Europe and China face significant slowdown with downside risk, while the US itself is undergoing progressively heavy fiscal tightening from now thru 2013. We have now, added to the mix, a series of strong policy statements, which makes market forecasting an interesting game to say the least, as prospects of further QE from the US and EZ, plus China’s likely fiscal loosening, make stocks for the next 6 months possibly a win-win proposition.

CapitaLand: Still wary of residential risk (Daiwa)

CapitaLand
Target price: S$2.22 → S$2.17
Up/downside: -25.2%
Share price (14 Feb): S$2.90

Still wary of residential risk
• 4Q11 EPS beat our forecasts on one-time items
• We are sticking to our trough PER target-price methodology
• Downgrade to Sell; TP lowered to S$2.17

Broadway Industrial: Prospects firm up (DMG)

Broadway Industrial: Prospects firm up
(BUY, S$0.40, TP S$0.53)

Broadway reported a net loss of S$10.3m in 4Q11 on the back of S$113.9m revenue (-27.8% YoY). Discounting the exceptional items, Broadway would have reported a full year core PATMI of S$6.6m, higher than our previous estimates as Thai flood disruption on the HDD segment (-19.2% YoY) was partly offset by the strong growth momentum in the foam plastic business (+23.2% YoY).

新危機陸績登場‧步希臘後塵‧葡萄牙將要求紓困

新危機陸績登場‧步希臘後塵‧葡萄牙將要求紓困
Created 02/22/2012 - 17:45

(德國‧柏林22日訊)延宕多時的希臘紓困協議終於敲定,使歐債危機暫時獲得一“轉機”,然而卻又有新的“危機”即將陸續登場,下一個要求紓困的國家將是葡萄牙。

據德國“商務日報”報導,在2月8日召開的歐盟財政部長會議上,電視轉播意外拍到德國財政部長蕭伯樂與葡萄牙財政部長加斯帕的對話,加斯帕提出第二次紓困的要求,蕭伯樂表示“我們會有準備”,加斯帕回答“非常感激”,這段談話已被上傳到Youtube,葡萄牙電視台也播出。

中央冷藏15派1庫存股

中央冷藏15派1庫存股
Created 02/22/2012 - 11:01

(吉隆坡21日訊)中央冷藏控股(CCK,7035,主板消費品組)宣佈每15股派發1股庫存股。

該公司發出文告表示,此庫存股的除權和派發日期將在稍後公佈。

Hutchison Port trust's Q4 profit in line with forecast

Business Times - 22 Feb 2012
Hutchison Port trust's Q4 profit in line with forecast
By LYNN KAN
HUTCHISON Port Holdings (HPH) Trust posted net profit attributable to unitholders of HK$608.2 million (S$98.5 million) for the three months ended Dec 31, 2011, in line with the HK$592.9 million forecast. The local bourse's heftiest listing last year also announced distribution per unit (DPU) of 23.4 HK cents for the July-December 2011 period.
Hutchison Port trust's Q4 profit in line with forecast
As for the full-year period - starting on constitution date Feb 25 - the trust's net profit attributable to unitholders was HK$1.97 billion, 4.8 per cent higher than projections of HK$1.88 billion.

Full-year DPU was 37.7 HK cents, higher than the 37.4 HK cents projected in the IPO prospectus.

HPH's fiscal 2011 effectively began on March 16 as acquisition of its assets and business undertakings were completed then.

While HPH hit its distribution targets, its topline lagged behind its targets, affected by the economic slowdown in the US and Europe last year.

Revenue for the October-December period was HK$3.1 billion, against the expected HK$3.2 billion. Similarly, for the fiscal year, HPH's revenue was HK$9.7 billion, about 5 per cent lower than the $10.2 billion set out in the IPO prospectus. At the same time, HPH Trust managed to increase throughput at its ports by 4 per cent year-on-year.

In the final quarter, its Hong Kong terminals did the heavy lifting, with throughput 3.5 per cent higher than forecast due to the longer-than-expected peak season.

Yantian's throughput, however, was 9.4 per cent below projections as the port is more reliant on the US and European market.

As a result of softer demand from Europe and the US, the chief executive officer of HPH's trustee-manager, Hai Chi-Yuet, said the trust will focus on increasing volume growth on transshipment, intra-Asia trade and certain high-growth trade routes out of the Middle East, Oceania, Central and South America and Africa.

'We are trying to get business out of these routings and we are in discussions and negotiations with shipping lines,' she said in a teleconference yesterday.

In 2012, Ms Hai expects the portfolio ports to do well in the face of more mega-sized vessels being deployed this year and shipping lines entering into vessel-sharing agreements. 'The consolidation and bigger vessels mean that shipping lines use less vessels with capacity remaining largely same. It is good for us because we like to handle less vessels, but each vessel with more boxes,' she said.

HPH Trust ended yesterday a cent lower at 74.5 US cents.



Source/Extract/Excerpts/来源/转贴/摘录: www.businesstimes.com.sg
Publish date:22/02/12

Two More Reasons Not to Chase the Tape (Citi)

Two More Reasons Not to Chase the Tape
 Earnings estimate revisions are not supportive of the stock market surge. While equities have surprised many with an impressive start to 2012, the revision momentum for earnings have proven to be disappointing, with mixed forward profit guidance amidst uncertainty surrounding European economic activity, corporate margins and the impact of rising oil prices. Typically, there is a tighter relationship between earnings and the S&P 500 and the divergence is worrying in the short term.

Unisem: Fewer chips to cash in(CIMB)

Unisem
Current RM1.47
Target RM0.89
Fewer chips to cash in

As expected, Unisem slipped into the red in 4QFY11. Unfortunately, the semicon industry is likely to stay weak in the short term as poor demand and low utilisation rates continue to plague the industry.

CapitaMalls Asia: Acquires remaining stakes in three Japanese malls (OCBC)

CapitaMalls Asia: Acquires remaining stakes in three Japanese malls

CapitaMalls Asia (CMA) announced that it has acquired the remaining 73.71% stakes in three Japanese malls, La Park Mizue (LPM) in Tokyo, Izumiya Hirakata (IH) in Osaka and Coop Kobe (CK) in Kobe, from 26.29%-owned Capitamalls Japan Fund. The total acquisition price was S$217.4m (100% basis) and was funded by external borrowings. LPM is the largest mall in the Mizue suburb, 30 mins from Tokyo, and is currently 99% occupied. IH is located in Hirakata City, 30 mins from central Osaka, and is master-leased by general merchandising store Izumiya. CK is in Nishinomiya City, 20 minutes from Kobe, and is currently master-leased by Coop Kobe. The combined NPI yield of the malls is ~7.6%, translating to an ROE of over 12% and an additional recurring PATMI of more than S$8m annually. We like these acquisitions as the price paid presents a strong return on equity and would also inject further growth into CMA’s core earnings profile ahead.

Yangzijiang Shipbuilding: Secures US$206.2m worth of contracts (OCBC)

Yangzijiang Shipbuilding: Secures US$206.2m worth of contracts

Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (YZJ) announced that it has secured shipbuilding contracts for seven vessels worth a total of US$206.2m YTD. These comprise four units of 82,000 DWT bulk carriers, two units of 95,000 DWT bulk carriers and a 47,500 DWT bulk carrier, and are scheduled for deliveries from 2013 to 2015. As a comparison, recall that the group secured 14 effective shipbuilding contracts worth US$512.3m in 1Q11, and clinched 21 effective shipbuilding contracts with an aggregate value of US$1,212m for the whole of last year. Amidst the challenging external
environment, YZJ’s shipyards will be busy for the whole of this year and the group is now
securing orders for 2013 and beyond.

CapitaCommercial Trust (CCT): Acquires Twenty Anson at S$2,121 psf (OCBC)

CapitaCommercial Trust (CCT): Acquires Twenty Anson at S$2,121 psf
CapitaCommercial Trust (CCT) announced that it had acquired Twenty Anson for S$430.0m or S$2,121 psf. The acquisition would be yield accretive and funded using existing cash and bank facilities, without raising equity. In addition to the purchase price, the trust would set aside S$17.1m to be drawn upon over 3.5 year to ensure a stabilized NPI yield of 4% per annum. The property is currently 100% occupied, with major tenants BlackRock and Toyota.

Tiger Airways: Joint-venture to resume flying (OCBC)

Tiger Airways: Joint-venture to resume flying

Tiger Airways (TGR) this morning announced its 33%-owned joint-venture PT Mandala Airlines (Mandala) has received its Air Operator’s Certificate from the Indonesian Director General of Air Communications. The restructured Mandala is scheduled to resume flying in Apr 2012. Information regarding the number of aircraft, the initial routes and destinations for Mandala will be announced at a later time. This is a positive development to TGR since such joint-ventures should help to absorb TGR’s expected upcoming new aircraft deliveries. But with jet fuel prices currently still averaging higher than in 3QFY12 and a disappointing passenger load factor in Jan 2012, we reiterate our SELL rating and fair value estimate of S$0.60/share on TGR.

Ezra Holdings: Beneficiary of buoyant subsea market (OCBC)

After announcing contract wins worth up to US$225m YTD, Ezra Holdings’ overall order backlog has exceeded a record US$1.6b. Industry expert Douglas Westwood is also forecasting higher subsea capital expenditure in the industry in the next few years, and Ezra is well positioned to benefit from such trends. We think AMC will start making positive contributions this year as 50% of the subsea order book (currently in excess of US$800m) gets recognized mostly in 2H12. The offshore support business should also be supported by recovering charter rates which are expected to pick up more strongly in 2H12. Along with the recent re-rating of the sector, we increase our peg for the offshore marine and energy business from 13x to 15x, bumping our fair value estimate from S$1.36 to S$1.51. Maintain BUY.

Stock to watch: High dividend yield and REITs (HLG)

Stock to watch: High dividend yield and REITs
A good investment in a period of uncertainty
 High dividend yield stocks and REITS are always a safe bet, in the midst of wild swings in the external markets. High-yield stocks are an attractive alternative to low returns in fixed income instruments or fixed deposits.

希腊问题暂告一段落,海指能稳守在3,000点以上吗?

希腊问题暂告一段落,海指能稳守在3,000点以上吗?

文: 
2012年02月21日


 技术分析
亚洲股市教父胡立阳老师说过,海峡时报指数必须至少连续三天保持在3,000点以上,才有可能继续往上攀。2月20日是海指攀上3,000点的第一天。若持续下去,海指将跨入一个新的箱子,并在其中起起落落至少3个月(见图表)。

对手客房不足,云顶新加坡可能受惠

对手客房不足,云顶新加坡可能受惠

文:  (译:陈锦如)
2012年02月21日

 微观细看
拉斯维加斯金沙集团(Las Vegas Sands Corp)截至2011年12月31日的全年净利跃升212%至13亿美元,收入则上涨37.3%至94亿美元。MBS是拉斯维加斯金沙的子公司,其按季度调整的产业息税折旧及摊销前盈利(EBITDA)和EBITDA率分别为4亿2,690万美元及52.9%,创下公司单项产业的新高。
不过,MBS的4Q11转码数(rolling chip volume)或来自贵宾赌桌业务的收入季比猛跌36%至10亿8,000万美元。

市场对希腊获得第二次援助反应不一

市场对希腊获得第二次援助反应不一

文:  (译:麦美莹)


  • 2012年02月21日



  •  展望
    欧元区的财长已经同意给予希腊高达1,300亿欧元的援助基金,这笔期待已久的款项可以帮助雅典偿付即将到期的贷款。希腊在3月20日有一笔145亿欧元的债券到期 。经过连夜在布鲁塞尔商谈后,欧元区的官员们最后达成协议,让希腊避过无秩序违约。

    美银美林调查:亚洲财务总监看好区内经济增长

    美银美林(Bank of America Merrill Lynch)昨天公布2012亚洲财务总监市场展望报告显示,审慎乐观是亚洲市场的主基调,只有约三成的财务总监认为本土的经济会增长,不过,还是有近六成认为公司的营收会增加。

      近14年来,美银美林每年均访问美国中、大型企业的财务总监,然后根据访问结果编制年度调查报告,今年首次在亚太地区进行类似的调查活动。

    马可波罗船业料将BBR于雅城上市

    马可波罗船业(Marco Polo Marine)计划将持有49%股权的联号公司Pelayaran Nasional Bina Buana Raya(BBR)申请在雅加达交易所上市。该公司已委任OSK Nusadana Securities为上市计划经理人和主包销商。

      马可波罗船业说,BBR的上市不一定会成功,股东在交易公司的股票时须谨慎,若有疑问,股东和潜在投资者应寻求独立的意见。

    HPH Trust: Delivers promises in first year (DSBV)

    Hutchison Port Holdings Trust
    BUY US$0.745
    Price Target : 12-Month US$ 0.85

    Delivers promises in first year
    • No surprises; 2H11 DPU of 23.4 HKcts (3.0 UScts) in line
    • Volume growth in FY12, though muted, should be more noticeable in 2H12
    • Look forward to FY12 dividend yield of 8.4%
    • Maintain BUY with TP of US$0.85

    2012 Budget – A Budget for the future; limited market impact (UOBKH)

    2012 Budget – A Budget for the future; limited market impact
    We see limited near-term impact on the FSSTI. Our top picks include DBS, CapitaLand, Ho Bee, M1, Ezion, Keppel Corp and Raffles Medical.

    China Market Strategy : A-share top picks in the Year of the Dragon (CS)

    China Market Strategy
    A-share top picks in the Year of the Dragon

    ● In the Year of the Dragon, we have selected eight stocks out of 33 pure A share stocks (with no H-share listing) we cover with a bottom-up approach and no sector-specific considerations.

    UEM Land : Iskandar to benefit from tighter policy on foreign workforce in Singapore (CS)

    UEM Land Holdings Bhd
    Price (17 Feb 12 , RM) 2.31
    TP (prev. TP RM) 3.80 (3.80)
    Est. pot. % chg. to TP 65
    52-wk range (RM) 2.95 - 1.58
    Maintain OUTPERFORM
    Iskandar to benefit from tighter policy on foreign workforce in Singapore

    ● A key highlight of Singapore’s Budget 2012 is government’s plan to slow growth of foreign workforce by a reduction in Dependency Ratio Ceilings in the manufacturing and services sectors and the possibility of further increases in the levy beyond July 2013.

    曾淵滄專欄 2012 02 22: 補大型裂口阻力多

    補大型裂口阻力多
    過去兩天的股市,相信會玩死不少見升就追、見跌就沽的短炒散戶,周一恒指借好消息高開,可是,誰追入誰後悔;周二,一日裏數次的跌與升,短炒贏虧的機會與到澳門賭大小沒分別。

    過去一段日子,我也曾經提起兩個阻力位,那是 21000點及 21885點,這是去年 8月 5日的下跌裂口位。一般說來,大型的裂口在回補過程中會造成阻力,但是阻力能阻多久就不得而知,現在的基本因素是正面的,如果你看的是中長期,目前仍是低位,就是遇上調整,遇上阻力,只要有耐性守一守,應該會有好收穫。

    Yangzijiang Shipbuilding: Strong YTD gain but order outlook still sluggish (DMG)

    Yangzijiang Shipbuilding: Strong YTD gain but order outlook still sluggish
    (SELL, S$1.31, TP S$1.04)

    Downgrade to SELL. We downgrade our rating from Neutral to Sell on the back of Yangzijiang (YZJ)’s strong share price performance YTD, up +44%. In our view, the share price recovery has not been accompanied by significant changes in the outlook for shipbuilding orders, which remains sluggish. Moreover, we expect two-year EPS CAGR of -11% over FY11-13F due to downtrend in margins and lower investment income from held-to-maturity financial instruments. While YZJ has proven to be one of the most efficient yards in China, industry dynamics are unfavourable: (1) order outlook is poor due to a wide demand supply gap over the next 12 months; (2) declining shipyard utilization could drive some yards, especially state owned yards, to take orders with very low margins and this could impact YZJ’s order intake/margins. Maintain TP at S$1.04 and downgrade to Sell.

    CapitaLand: Below expectations on softer core; assets build-out matters more (GS)

    CapitaLand (CATL.SI)
    Price (S$) 2.90
    12 month price target (S$) 3.12
    Below expectations on softer core; assets build-out matters more

    What surprised us
    CAPL reported FY11 headline net profit of S$1.1bn (-26% yoy) and core net profit (ex revals.) of S$222mn for 4Q and S$573mn for FY11 (-42% yoy), some 10% below GSe as Resi sales/recognition disappointed domestically and abroad.

    Mobile service operators start talks on merger and acquisitions

    The Star Online > Business
    Wednesday February 22, 2012
    Mobile service operators start talks on merger and acquisitions
    By YVONNE TAN yvonne@thestar.com.my

    PETALING JAYA: Consolidation talks have begun in the telecommunication space where as many as nine parties have licences to offer mobile services.

    “There are clearly too many operators for a market like Malaysia and it would naturally result in some form of consolidation,” said a telco analyst.

    CapitaMalls Asia: Gearing up for a bigger slice of Japan (CIMB)

    CapitaMalls Asia
    Current S$1.64
    Target S$1.36
    Gearing up for a bigger slice of Japan

    CMA announced that it will acquire the remaining 73.7% stakes inthree Japan retail malls at a16.9% discount to book values. Expected NPI yield of 7.6% and S$8m recurring income lift are positives, thoughtheestimated accretion to RNAVis muted (1ct). Switch to CapLand.

    OKP: Record Profit Smashes Expectations (SIAS)

    OKP Holdings Limited
    Increase Exposure
     Intrinsic Value S$0.980
     Prev Close S$0.640
    Record Profit Smashes Expectations
    OKP Holdings Limited’s (OKP) 4Q FY11 net profit significantly exceeded our forecasts with full year PATMI coming in at S$26.6m versus our expectation of S$23.1m. Net margin doubled year-on-year to 24.2% in 2011. The high quality of OKP’s order book and the strong flow of projects up for bidding from now to 2020 suggest that OKP’s performance going forward will still be good. In turn, more managerial effort can be shifted to new revenue development. The realization of this scenario will result in a re-rating of OKP’s share price over time. Maintain Increase Exposure based on an intrinsic value of S$0.980.

    Technics: Healthy Order Book, Expect More Contracts (SIAS)

    Technics Oil & Gas Limited
    Increase Exposure
     Intrinsic Value S$1.35
     Prev Close S$0.905
    Healthy Order Book, Expect More Contracts

    Technics Oil & Gas Limited (Technics) posted steady 1Q FY2012 results with revenue and PATMI rising 58% and 41% YoY to S$35.3m and S$4.3m respectively. Its performance was largely in line with expectations and 1Q revenue and PATMI (which are seasonally weaker) formed 23.7% and 20.5% of our FY2012 forecasts. Technics’ last quarter PATMI (S$2.6m) was dragged lower by the reclassification of Norr Systems’ leases and we are glad to see the recovery of profitability this quarter.

    Padini: Growth drivers much intact (MIB)

    Padini
    Buy (unchanged)
    Share price: RM1.27
    Target price: RM1.60 (from RM1.16)
    Growth drivers much intact

    New stores and BOs drive growth. Brands Outlet (BO) sales is continuing its run at a pace of more than 25% pa, and already accounts for 16% of total sales (as at end-FY11). Double-digit growth in BO sales is expected to persist, while the addition of 10 new stores in FY12 provides further impetus for sales momentum growth over the next two years. We continue to like Padini for its decent valuations (2012 PER of 9.6x), strong balance sheet (net cash) and the reputable brands in its portfolio. Maintain Buy with a raised TP of RM1.60.

    CapitaLand: Investing for the future (DBSV)

    CapitaLand.
    BUY S$2.90
    Price Target : 12-month S$ 3.38 (Prev S$ 3.01)
    Investing for the future
    • Results slightly above ours but below market
    • New investments to drive prospects
    • Maintain Buy with TP raised to S$3.38

    Tuesday, February 21, 2012

    Singapore Market Strategy: A compassionate Budget (DMG)

    Singapore Market Strategy: A compassionate Budget
    Unveiling a Budget for the future. Singapore’s Finance Minister, in his FY2012 Budget speech, delivered a Budget for the future. As expected, he focused on addressing Singapore’s longer-term challenges, and did not deliver a counter-cyclical Budget. The government expects 2012 GDP growth of a much slower 1-3%, but given 2011’s 4.9% growth, this is still consistent with the medium-term growth potential of 3-5%. From a FY2011 budget surplus of 0.7% of GDP, the government estimates a lower FY2012 budget surplus of 0.4% of GDP. We see this Budget as NEUTRAL for the equity market index.

    财经追击 Episode 39--08.01.2012-Investments in 2012

    Check out this great 财经追击- Episode 39

    Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust: Value Emerging Amidst Market Speculation (SIAS)

    Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust
    Increase Exposure
    • Intrinsic Value S$0.610
    • Prev Close S$0.390
    Value Emerging Amidst Market Speculation

    Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust (“LMIRT”) posted solid profit in its FY11 year books. NPAT for the period were lower than our forecasts due to lower than expected fair value gains for the company. Gain from foreign currency translation however bolstered total comprehensive income, more than doubling prior year’s figures. We maintain our Increase Exposure rating with an intrinsic value of S$0.610.

    Broadway Industrial: Improving outlook (CIMB)

    Broadway Industrial
    Current S$0.40
    Target S$0.55
    Improving outlook

    Broadway’s resilient share pricesuggests that investorsmaybe counting onanearnings recovery in 3Q12, underpinned by a turnaround ofits component business.Positive newsflow from theHDD sectorshoulddrive trading interest in the coming quarters.

    Sheng Siong Group: Possible selling pressure after release of results (OCBC)

    Due to a delay in approval from HDB, the sale of Sheng Shiong Group’s (SSG) old Marsiling warehouse facility will now be included in FY12’s figures instead of FY11. In addition, the gain was revised downwards to S$10.44m upon incorporation of a levy fee to HDB. With these new developments, we reverse our previous increases to FY11 earnings, returning to a net profit of S$31m and raising FY12’s net profit correspondingly to S$43.3m from S$34.2m previously. As SSG’s share price is currently supported by expectations of a healthy dividend payout, we could see some selling pressure on the counter once its FY11 results are released and the lower earnings is confirmed. However, we continue to like SSG for its strong fundamentals, healthy balance sheet and relatively inelastic domestic consumption demand, and the counter will provide some downside protection should a market correction occur. Maintain HOLD at an unchanged fair value estimate of S$0.44.

    CapitaMalls Asia: Shrewd pick of low-hanging fruits (KE)

    CapitaMalls Asia
    Buy (unchanged)
    Share price: S$1.64
    Target price: S$1.95 (previously $1.92)

    Increasing stakes in three Japanese malls. CapitaMalls Asia (CMA) has acquired the remaining 73.71% stakes in three Japanese malls in which it has a 26.29% stake each. The acquisition price of S$217.4m (on a 100% basis) implies a 16.9% discount to the malls’ latest valuations. We see the acquisitions as a shrewd business move for CMA even though they merely increase its RNAV by just 1 cent per share. Maintain Buy.

    Parkson Retail Asia: When diligent shopkeeping pays (CIMB)

    Parkson Retail Asia
    Current S$1.50
    Target S$1.80

    When diligent shopkeeping pays
    Management is stayingbusy revamping existing stores (especially in Malaysia and Indonesia), rolling out new stores, constantly upgradingits merchandise mix, and planning for entry into new countries.

    Padini: In Good Hands (OSK)

    Padini
    Share price: RM1.27
    Fair Value RM1.80
    Previous RM1.42
    In Good Hands
    We had a pleasant visit to Padini recently and continue to like this stock for its Good track record, Good growth story of its “Brands Outlet”, and Good pricing. The group is opening 3 more Brands Outlets and multi-brand concept stores in the next 6 months, which we believe will further boost sales going forward. As such, we are raising our FY12 and FY13 forecasts by 7.8% and 7% respectively by taking the outlets expansion into account. Maintain BUY with higher FV of RM1.80 as we peg Padini at a higher PE of 14x.
    Warren E. Buffett(沃伦•巴菲特)
    Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful
    别人贪婪时我恐惧, 别人恐惧时我贪婪
    投资只需学好两门课: 一,是如何给企业估值,二,是如何看待股市波动
    吉姆·罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)
    “错过时机”胜于“搞错对象”:不会全军覆没!”
    做自己熟悉的事,等到发现大好机会才投钱下去

    乔治·索罗斯(George Soros)

    “犯错误并没有什么好羞耻的,只有知错不改才是耻辱。”

    如果操作过量,即使对市场判断正确,仍会一败涂地。

    李驰(中国巴菲特)
    高估期间, 卖对, 不卖也对, 买是错的。
    低估期间, 买对, 不买也是对, 卖是错的。

    Tan Teng Boo


    There’s no such thing as defensive stocks.Every stock can be defensive depending on what price you pay for it and what value you get,
    冷眼(冯时能)投资概念
    “买股票就是买公司的股份,买股份就是与陌生人合股做生意”。
    合股做生意,则公司股份的业绩高于一切,而股票的价值决定于盈利。
    价值是本,价格是末,故公司比股市重要百倍。
    曹仁超-香港股神/港股明灯
    1.有智慧,不如趁势
    2.止损不止盈
    成功者所以成功,是因为不怕失败!失败者所以失败,是失败后不再尝试!
    曾淵滄-散户明灯
    每逢灾难就是机会,而是在灾难发生时贱价买股票,然后放在一边,耐性地等灾难结束
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