Saturday, February 18, 2012

曹仁超教你如何追涨杀跌

视频:曹仁超教你如何追涨杀跌
http://www.sina.com.cn/ 2012年02月06日10:17 宁夏卫视《中国经营者》
“股市超人”曹仁超在接受《中国经营者》专访时说,千万不要止赢,要止损,还要有这个勇气,去追这些刚刚开始上升的浪。例如腾迅10块升到20块,你20块买真的是很心痛的,明知道它是10块的,涨到20块。但是20块你买的话,将来它会涨到200元的。但是250块跌下来,200元的话不要买了因为下调开始了。它从2003年一直往上爬,爬到2011年就往下走了。上升浪是7年,下调浪应该是3年,2011年2012年2013年,腾迅2014年才去看看它,有没有这些上升,如果没有的话,对不起,你下去上涨没有关系。虽然整个股票市场是往上走的,但是有很多股票,都是往下面调的。

Weekend Comment Feb 17: Budget for business

THE SINGAPORE GOVERNMENT has unveiled its Budget for 2012 against a backdrop of slowing economic growth, while costs of living and doing business continue to rise. There was a significantly higher-than-expected budget surplus of $2.3 billion, or 0.7% of GDP for FY2011.

末日博士:只看好马新泰 新兴股市随时转跌

末日博士:只看好马新泰 新兴股市随时转跌
Created 02/18/2012 - 17:05

(纽约18日讯)有“末日博士”之称的麦嘉华(Marc Faber)周五警告,全球股市已处于超买状态,随时可能反转回档,尤以新兴市场股市面临最大的修正压力。

Can Indonesia continue to outperform?

Business Times - 18 Feb 2012
SHOW ME THE MONEY
Can Indonesia continue to outperform?
Analysts are turning bullish on the country, citing the strong rupiah, higher confidence in country specific risks

Hi-P shares hit 6-month high on iPhone talk

Business Times - 18 Feb 2012
Hi-P shares hit 6-month high on iPhone talk
Analysts up 2012 earnings estimate 28% and price target 54% after firm's $100m capex in guidance

Budget draws line in sand to stem flow of foreign workers

Business Times - 18 Feb 2012
Budget draws line in sand to stem flow of foreign workers
Older local workers the big gainers with higher CPF rates and more incentives for bosses to hire them

古晋中央冷藏1742万 购Pt. Adilmart 95.83%

古晋中央冷藏1742万 购Pt. Adilmart 95.83%
Created 02/18/2012 - 11:34

(吉隆坡17日讯)古晋中央冷藏(CCK,7035,主板消费产品股)宣布,以575万美元(约1742万令吉)认购Pt. Adilmart的95.83%股权。

中国化解地方债危机

2012年02月13日 13:14 PM
中国化解地方债危机
英国《金融时报》 欧阳德 北京报道

巨额债务即将到期,而债务人无力偿还,因此政府同意延长到期日。你可能以为这是在描述希腊纾困方案,但实际上,这是中国为防止数十个省市无力偿还银行贷款而做的事情。这意味着中国是另一个希腊?答案绝非如此。

巴菲特:危机中我不会睡不着


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 新浪视频
Publish date:2009-05-09

投资者要克服的五大恐惧心理

2012年 01月 09日 07:37
投资者要克服的五大恐惧心理

新闻头条坏消息不断,道琼斯工业平均指数(Dow Jones Industrial Average)以500多点的幅度波动,经济前景黯淡不明,这些因素都让投资者望而生畏。虽然一些担忧可能确有其事,但财务顾问们说,如果因为恐惧而不积极进行投资,那你未来的财富积累将受到影响。
下面列出令投资者忧心忡忡、但财务顾问建议努力克服的五大恐惧心理。

和巴菲特午餐能得到什么秘籍

视频:和巴菲特午餐能得到什么秘籍
http://www.sina.com.cn/ 2009年06月08日08:35 北京电视台《天下财经》
最近巴菲特的午餐竞标活动又一次开始了,能否与投资大师共进午餐探讨投资理念一直让很多投资者心向往之,而身不能至。去年赵丹阳是以211万美元天价获得这个机会,但今年在金融危机大背景下,以及2008年巴菲特投资失利的情况下,今年的午餐能否再创天价呢?听专家如何解读。

基金汇:怎样低风险谋求高回报?

基金汇:怎样低风险谋求高回报?

来源: 第一财经 时间:2009-07-20 18:35:21 


简介:集中投资,要怎样低风险谋求高回报?

Breaking Down The Balance Sheet

Breaking Down The Balance Sheet
By Richard Loth | Investopedia


A company's financial statements - balance sheet, income and cash flow statements - are a key source of data for analyzing the investment value of its stock. Stock investors, both the do-it-yourselfers and those who follow the guidance of an investment professional, don't need to be analytical experts to perform a financial statement analysis. Today, there are numerous sources of independent stock research, online and in print, which can do the "number crunching" for you. However, if you're going to become a serious stock investor, a basic understanding of the fundamentals of financial statement usage is a must. In this article, we help you to become more familiar with the overall structure of the balance sheet.

拆解2011熱門板塊 – 銀行及保險股




進場就是為了出場

進場就是為了出場

撰文者:法意小秘書
會參與在市場上投資的目的只有一個,就是賺錢。

市場上每天都會有人歡呼,因為他賺到了足夠他一個月的生活費,但是這些人大多半個月之後已經沒有獲利,而且長期而言帳戶都是虧損,這不是矛盾,是現實。

李晶(摩根大通):熊市转牛市需时间 更看好消费板块

和讯网:各位网友大家好!这里是由中国最大财经门户和讯网为您带来的独家专访,今天我们非常荣幸请到了摩根大通中国区全球市场主席李晶女士,李老师您好!

李晶:大家好!

亚洲经营者: 来宝Elman:志在育新而非收购



亚洲股市涨到危险境地?

美国银行—美林针对基金经理的最新调查显示,全球新兴市场股市的资产配置出现了惊人的上升,从以往经验看,已达到与短期表现趋弱相符的水准。
  (香港路透电)与全球贸易紧密相关的亚洲公司股价飞涨,追逐这些股票的投资者需要好好面对以下现实。

星狮商产信托(Frasers Commercial Trust) 合理价值:94分

股海观潮
  它宣布以8300万澳元(1亿1260万新元)的价格,收购在澳大利亚坎贝拉市区的房地产项目Caroline Chisholm Centre的50%股权。收购价较地产项目一半股权在去年9月低作出的9500万澳元(1亿2130万新元)估价折让12.6%。

  管理层有意通过银行贷款和内部资金来支付收购的所须费用。

2012财政预算案: 消费税券永久助低收入者

尚达曼说,消费税补助券今年估计总值6亿8000万元,往后也将年年分发,成为我国财政结构的一环。为让补贴得以持续,政府将推出永久性的消费税补助券来帮助低收入国人,确保消费税不会对他们造成冲击。此外,为确保经济情况不会影响补助券的分发,政府今年将拨出36亿元成立消费税补助券基金,作为未来五年发放补助券的费用。

2012财政预算案: 顺应人口老龄化 调高年长员工公积金缴交率

50岁至65岁年长工人的中央公积金缴交率今年9月起将按个别年龄层做不同幅度的上调,以顺应我国人口老龄化的实际变化,并善用这有待进一步开发的劳动力资源。

按照新公积金缴交率,年龄介于50岁至55岁工人的公积金缴交率将从目前的30%上调至32.5%;55岁至60岁工人则从现在21.5%调升两个百分点至23.5%;而60岁至65岁的工人则微加0.5个百分点至14.5%。

2012财政预算案: 三元素组成消费税补助券

尚达曼发表基调明显为打造包容性社会的政府新财政年度预算声明时,宣布一系列的扶贫措施,包括由现金、填补保健储蓄(Medisave)户头和水电回扣计划(U-Save)等三个元素组成的消费税补助券(GST Voucher)。

2012财政预算案: 外劳比率再减

外劳比率再减

首当其冲的是制造业和服务业,从今年7月开始,工作准证的外劳比率顶限将下调5个百分点,分别减至60%和45%。所有领域的S准证比率顶限也将从现有的25%减少到20%。

目前聘请的外籍员工人数超出新顶限的企业将有两年时间进行调整,它们最迟得在2014年6月之前将外籍员工人数削减到限制内。

Let Greece Go Bankrupt: Jim Rogers

China Property Market Will Not Collapse



Wells Fargo's Stumpf on the Volcker Rule


The Bright Spark for Singapore 2012

Genting Hong Kong: Value unlocking opportunity in NCL (Macq)

Genting Hong Kong
Close Price* 14 Feb 12 US$0.38
12-month target US$ 0.43
Upside/Downside % 14.7
Valuation US$ 0.43
Value unlocking opportunity in NCL

Event
􀂃 GENHK’s 50% subsidiary Norwegian Cruise Line (NCL) reported stellar 124% YoY growth in 2011 earnings, thus making 2011 the best year in its history. Given the remarkable turnaround in NCL’s business and the US sentiment recovering simultaneously, we believe there is a strong possibility of value unlocking in the highly undervalued NCL through an IPO in 2012.

Frasers Commercial Trust: Acquires remaining stake in Australian asset; BUY for 20% upside (UOBKH)

Frasers Commercial Trust
Acquires remaining stake in Australian asset; BUY for 20% upside
Price/ Target S$0.800/S$0.96
What’s New
• Re-iterate BUY with target price of S$0.96 (previously S$0.92), as we expect Frasers Commercial Trust’s (FCOT) proposed acquisition of its remaining stake in Caroline Chisholm Centre (CCC) to be a positive catalyst. We estimate that the transaction will lift FY12-13F DPU by 1.9% and 4.6% respectively.

Hi-P: back to growth mode in 2012 (Limtan)

HI-P
S$0.81-HIPS.SI
 Hi-P’s share price broke out of the several times tested (since early 2009 till early 2010) resistance level of 75.5 cents 2 days ago on higher than normal trading volume (1.615mln shares on 15 Feb ’12 when the stock closed at 77 cents and 2.88mln shares on 16 Feb ’12 when the stock closed at 81 cents).

CapitaMalls Asia Ltd: Setting off for a better year (Phillip)

CapitaMalls Asia Ltd:
Target Price (SGD) 1.77
- Previous Target Price (SGD) 1.76
Closing Price (SGD) 1.48
Expected Capital Gains (%) 19.6%
Expected Dividend Yield (%) 2.0%
Expected Total Return (%) 21.6%
Setting off for a better year

OKP: Record profit; outlook looking bright with massive public projects (CIMB)

OKP Holdings
Record profit; outlook looking bright with massive public projects
BUY; TP:S$0.98
Price @16/2/12: S$0.64
52-week range (SGD): 0.52 – 0.69

Record earnings grab the headlines
• Results exceeded our above consensus estimates. 4Q11 net profit of S9.5m (+105% yoy) was a surprise, bringing the entire FY11 net profit to S$26.6m (+57% yoy), beating our numbers by 27%. This figure was in fact our previous FY12 forecast, and the beat was spectacular owning to cost savings in certain design-and-build construction projects, which yielded higher gross profit margins. Overall better project management and tighter cost controls also helped.

CapitaLand: Emphasis on diversification (CIMB)

CapitaLand
Current S$2.90
Target S$3.34
Emphasis on diversification

CapLand’s S$1bn PATMI for FY11 was glossed by revaluation and portfolio gains. Operationally, China sales remain expectedlyslow, though adiversified asset base should cushion the impacton its RNAV. CapLand tradesat the lowestmultiplesamong the big caps

WingTai: 2Q results ahead; challenging outlook for high-end segment (DB)

Wing Tai Holdings (WTHS.SI)
2Q results ahead; challenging outlook for high-end segment

Price (SGD) 1.28
Price target (SGD) 1.14
52-week range (SGD) 1.60 - 0.92
Market cap (USDm) 810
Shares outstanding (m) 793.9
Net debt/equity (%) 31.0
Book value/share (SGD) 2.53
Price/book (x) 0.5.

Diversifying through REITs

Diversifying through REITs
by Shrikant Bhat 04:45 AM Feb 18, 2012
Real estate as an asset class is hardly a new concept. People have viewed property as an investment long before the advent of stock exchanges and other capital markets.

Is bailout plan big enough?

Is bailout plan big enough?
European diplomat says deal won't stave off Greece's creditors
Updated 08:32 AM Feb 17, 2012BRUSSELS - Current plans to save Greece from financial collapse would still leave the country with debt far above the maximum level set by its international creditors, a European diplomat said yesterday.

Malaysia Airlines unions hold their ground

Malaysia Airlines unions hold their ground
2012/02/18
SHARE SWAP ISSUE: Analysts, however, say deal with
AirAsia is unlikely to be undone

SEVEN months down the road, Malaysia Airlines’ employees are no closer to buying in to the Khazanah Nasional Bhd-Tan Sri Tony Fernandes share swap than when it was first announced.

Friday, February 17, 2012

Budget-GST-relief-for-lowerincome-families

Budget: GST relief for lower-income families
Posted: 17 February 2012 1759 hrs

SINGAPORE: The government has introduced a new permanent feature in the tax system - the GST Voucher. It aims to make sure the Goods and Services Tax (GST) does not burden the low-income families.

Greece rescue at crossroads as shortfall in debt cut grows

Greece rescue at crossroads as shortfall in debt cut grows
Posted: 17 February 2012 0450 hrs

BRUSSELS: A massive rescue package for Greece faced a substantial rewrite on Thursday after officials revealed that Athens would miss its debt targets and divisions deepened over its future in the eurozone.

大马超级富豪 NO1 - 5

大马超级富豪:NO1.郭鹤年逐步撤出大马 海外业务占财富90%

  • 郭鹤年被冠以“糖王”和“酒店大王”双王称号。
不曾从大马富豪榜落马的郭鹤年,今年依旧以302亿8000万令吉的身家稳坐冠军位置,傲视大马企业界。
被冠以“糖王”和“酒店大王”双王称号的郭鹤年,虽业务触角逐渐从我国淡出,但来自新加坡与香港的业务,仍为其身家作出高达90%的贡献。

大马超级富豪:NO 6 - 10

大马超级富豪:NO 6.擅长与政府打交道 赛莫达谈笑用兵



  • 是树大招风吗?企业王国日益扩大,且因行善获奖无数的赛莫达,曾惹损害小股东利益非议。
尽管丹斯里赛莫达的身影甚少出现在媒体镜头前,显得相当低调。

惟这并不代表这位在前首相敦马哈迪时代崛起的土著企业家满足于现况。

40富豪八成是华裔 郭鹤年303亿稳居龙头

(吉隆坡1日讯)经历了多灾多难的2011年,国内富豪仍在险境中创造财富,《南洋商报》统计出的2011年大马40大富豪榜,再次由熟悉脸孔占据前列,郭鹤年、丹斯里林国泰和阿南达克里斯南雄霸前三名。

外圍報喜‧大摩上調評級‧馬股隨區域起舞

外圍報喜‧大摩上調評級‧馬股隨區域起舞
Created 02/17/2012 - 17:45

(吉隆坡17日訊)美國經濟數據唱好,希臘有望獲第二援助貸款,全球股市上演慶祝行情,加上馬股獲摩根士丹利上調評級,及摩指(MSCI)調高大馬權重,激勵了投資情緒,富時綜指試圖挑戰1560點,惟始終無功而返,終場起6.66點至1557.15點。

Emerging Market Stocks Due for Correction: Marc Faber

Emerging Market Stocks Due for Correction: Marc Faber
Published: Friday, 17 Feb 2012
Stock markets all over the world are currently overbought, and emerging market stocks, which have had a strong start to the year, will be the most vulnerable when the correction comes, Marc Faber, the editor of the Gloom Boom & Doom Report, told CNBC on Friday.

Why S-chip fraud cases keep cropping up

Business Times - 17 Feb 2012
Why S-chip fraud cases keep cropping up
Poor corporate governance is simply a symptom but not the root of the problem
By QIAN MEIJUN
INTRODUCED with the purpose of riding on China's economic growth and to develop Singapore's financial market, the listing of Chinese firms in Singapore (S-chips) has, unwillingly and sadly, resulted in a heartbreaking experience for many Singapore investors and Chinese firms themselves.

FCOT buys remaining 50% stake in Canberra complex

Business Times - 17 Feb 2012
FCOT buys remaining 50% stake in Canberra complex
By MICHELLE TAN
FRASERS Commercial Trust (FCOT) is set to acquire the remaining 50 per cent interest in Caroline Chisholm Centre, an Australian office complex located in Canberra, for A$83 million (S$113 million).

Outlook remains subdued; no rebound in sight

Business Times - 17 Feb 2012
ECONOMIC SURVEY OF SINGAPORE
Outlook remains subdued; no rebound in sight

Govt sticks to 1-3% growth despite a stronger Q4 than previously thought

Risks loom, but S'pore has enough firepower, says IMF

Business Times - 17 Feb 2012
Risks loom, but S'pore has enough firepower, says IMF
It suggests budget may be expansionary; an external slowdown may hit S'pore hard

Singapore Market Strategy: Pre-2012 Budget (DMG)

Singapore Market Strategy: Pre-2012 Budget
A mildly expansionary Budget expected. On the back of recent stabilisation in the external environment, we expect a mildly expansionary 2012 budget (instead of a more aggressively expansionary one). We however recognise that the system remains susceptible to external shocks. The government would want to reserve its strongest bullets for use should the external environment deteriorates significantly. The focus of the budget will likely be on longer term growth prospects with an eye to containing costs for businesses (particularly SMEs) and households in the near term. The government will likely also provide incentives like tax breaks, tax holidays etc. to promote new growth industries and expand existing ones like aerospace, healthcare, education and tourism.

Singapore: Final 4Q12 GDP Disappoints (DMG)

Singapore: Final 4Q12 GDP Disappoints
Singapore expanded by 3.6% year-on-year (yoy) in 4Q11. This was unchanged from the advanced estimates announced earlier, and lower than consensus and our expectations of 4.3% and 4.4% respectively. On a seasonally-adjusted quarter-on-quarter (sa qoq) basis, real GDP contracted 2.5% in 4Q, an improvement from the advanced estimates of 4.9%. Full-year GDP rose 4.9%, compared to the advance estimates of 4.8% (2010: 14.8%) and our forecast of 5.1%.

S-REITs to play catch-up? (CS)

S-REITs to play catch-up?
■ S-REITs have lagged YTD despite strong data points. Despite strong data points, including: (1) Five of CS’s 11 S-REITs had 4Q11 results beating expectations (mostly led by office REITs) and (2) industry data points surprising on the upside for office and retail YTD, S-REITs have lagged the January/February rally, underperforming the STI by 6.5% and developers by 24.6%. We believe that S-REITs are looking increasingly attractive at these levels, with the yield spread now close to its two-year high, and that downside is relatively limited backed by strong sector fundamentals.

Frasers Commercial Trust: Accretive Australian purchase (CIMB)

Frasers Commercial Trust
Current S$0.80
Target S$0.89
Frasers Commercial Trust

We like FCOT’s acquisitionof the remaining 50% stake inCaroline Chisholm Centrefor its attractive price, stable long lease with annual rent incrementsand synergies from owning the entire asset. Despite a higher gearing, we see positives outweighingnegatives.

Stay tactically defensive but shop on sharp dips (UOBKH)

Stay tactically defensive but shop on sharp dips
We maintain our tactically defensive posture but see themes that will thrive despite the trying external outlook. Our top picks include DBS, ART, CapitaLand, Ho Bee, M1, Ezion, Keppel Corp and Raffles Medical.

Hutchison Port Holdings Trust: Uninspiring January volumes (DBSV)

Hutchison Port Holdings Trust
BUY US$0.75
Price Target : 12-Month US$ 0.85
Uninspiring January volumes
Slow start to 2012 at Yantian Port. January throughput data for Yantian Port came in at 880.8k TEUs, down 5.7% y-o-y. This was not really surprising amid the continued subdued economic activities in the US and Europe with the EU economies contracting by 0.3% in 4Q11. Moreover, the Chinese New Year (CNY) holidays were earlier this year in the last week of January and pre- Chinese New Year shipments would have been seasonally stronger in the corresponding period in 2010, when the CNY holidays fell in mid-February. At Hong Kong port's Kwai Tsing terminals, January volume grew 1.2% to 1.53m TEUs, which probably implies 1.5-2.0% growth for HIT terminals, while JV COSCO-HIT terminals registered 3.5% growth during the month.

GMG: Awaiting further growth plans (DBSV)

GMG Global
HOLD S$0.152
Price Target : 12-Month S$ 0.15 (Prev S$ 0.13
Awaiting further growth plans
• FY12-13F earnings cut by 4-5% on revised FX rate and natural rubber (NR) price assumptions
• Expect 4Q11 profit of S$26.5m (+106% y-o-y)
• Potential catalyst from deployment of rights issue proceeds
• Maintain Hold, TP raised to S$0.15 on lower equity risk premium

Sri Trang : Better profits ahead (DBSV)

Sri Trang Agro-Industry
NOT RATED S$0.88
Potential Price Target* : 12-Month S$ 0.99 (Prev S$ 0.81)

Better profits ahead
• Reduced competition for raw natural rubber to drive 4Q11 recovery from loss in 3Q11
• Adjust FY11-13F earnings by -10% to +2% on new NR price/FX rates and cut in Indonesian expansion
• Not rated, DCF valuation lifted to S$0.99/Bt24.1 on lower equity risk premium

Top Glove : Valuation setback (DBSV)

Top Glove Corporation
HOLD RM5.00
Price Target : 12-Month RM 4.80 (Prev RM 4.05)

Valuation setback
• Cut latex price assumptions by 8%and raised FY12-14F EPS by 2-3%
• FY12 will be a recovery year with lower latex costs and better sales mix
• Raised TP to RM4.80 pegged to 15.5x CY12 EPS; expectations of margin recovery and stronger earnings have been priced in; maintain Hold

Masterskill: Expecting a flat 4Q11 (Kenanga)

Masterskill Education
MARKET PERFORM ↔
Price: RM1.19 Target Price: RM1.19 ↓
52-week range (H) 2.47
52-week range (L) 1.06
Expecting a flat 4Q11

We recently met with the management of Masterskill and gathered that since the unfolding of the new government loan policy last year, the group had experienced a 20% drop in student from 2Q11 to 3Q11 and this trend is expected to persist into 4Q11. On a y-o-y basis, the group is expected to see a significant decline in earnings of 76.1% in 4Q11, while on a q-o-q basis, we are expecting to see flat earnings of RM6.4m in 4Q11 compared to the RM5.5m in 3Q11.

Play China's Growth Story

NOL: Rate hike proposed by TSA (Phillip)

Neptune Orient Lines Ltd
Target Price (SGD) 1.37
- Previous Target Price (SGD) 1.36
Closing Price (SGD) 1.42
Expected Capital Gains (%) -3.2%
Rate hike proposed by TSA

Company Overview
Through its container shipping arm, APL, NOL is the 7th largest container shipping company in the world and derives more than half of its revenue from America. The Group also provides supply chain solutions through APL Logistics. • TSA proposed rate hikes from March 2012
• Maersk announced rate increase on Asia-Europe trade
• Rate hikes merely a response to high operating costs
• Widened loss estimate for FY11E
• Downgrade to Reduce with revised TP of S$1.37

Moody's Bank Review


我国去年GDP增长4.9%

我国去年GDP增长4.9%
贸工部维持今年经济增长1%至3%预测

贸工部表示,目前并没有明显迹象显示我国经济会出现连续两个季度萎缩而陷入技术衰退,但也没有迹象显示新加坡经济会在近期内回弹。

星狮商产信托全购澳洲一房地产股权

星狮商产信托(Frasers Commercial Trust,简称FCOT)以8300万澳元的价格收购在澳大利亚坎贝拉市区一栋房地产的50%股权。

  这栋房地产是Caroline Chisholm Centre,星狮商产信托已在2007年6月收购这栋房产的50%股权,这次再收购意味着该信托将全数拥有它。

天宇集团遭刑事调查

金融管理局在日前接获新交所报案,指天宇集团与其董事涉嫌触犯证券与期货法令。金管局之后将相关指控交由专门负责白领罪案的商业事务局展开调查。

Hi-P International: Suppl ier for Apple’s iPhone 5? (DMG)

HI-P INTERNATIONAL
Price S$0.81
Previous S$0.79
Target S$1.22
Suppl ier for Apple’s iPhone 5?

Our upgrade of Hi-P has been validated, with the share price surging 25.4%, beyond our TP of $0.79. Our channel checks show that the group has already secured a large order for its new metal casing business, which we believe to be Apple. Hi-P‟s new Computer Numerical Control (CNC) machines will arrive in time by 2H12 to be ready for the production of iPhone 5. In view of the extremely strong demand for Apple products, we expect Hi-P to have a busy time clearing orders in the second half of the year. We raise our earnings forecasts for FY12 and FY13 by 27.9% and 26.4% respectively. Reiterate BUY with a new TP of S$1.22 pegged to 11.8x FY12P/E (+0.5 s.d. 5-yr historical mean).

Investing With Sui Jau: Portfolio Summary Jan 2012

OKP: Record earnings and healthy near term prospects (OCBC)

OKP reported a solid set of 4Q numbers and produced record earnings (S$26.6m) in FY11. 4Q’s revenue (S$23.2m) declined 21.6% due to completion of some big projects. But as it wrapped up on CTE, the higher margins of the design and build contract were evident on its earnings. On a full year basis, FY11’s gross and net margins improved to reach 39% and 24% respectively. Given its improved track record as a design and build player, and the government's commitment to several infrastructure projects, we believe OKP’s near-term prospects are healthy. The group has also built up a strong balance sheet capable of seizing suitable growth opportunities. Possible growth avenues include diversifying into property development and seeking out acquisitions to add to existing construction capabilities. Applying 7.5x P/E peg on FY12 earnings, we derive a fair value estimate of S$0.75, maintain BUY.

曾淵滄專欄 2012 02 17: 藍燈籠戲言竟當真

藍燈籠戲言竟當真
伊朗政府越來越猖狂,擺明要造核彈,以色列會讓伊朗造核彈嗎?現在,除了以色列感到不安之外,日本也很不安,日本沒有石油,石油靠入口,一旦中東發生戰爭,以色列與伊朗打起來,日本就很麻煩。

現在,日本政府已公開請求以色列不要攻打伊朗,歐盟說要禁買伊朗石油,但是這麼做對歐盟只會有害無益。伊朗的石油不必擔心沒有買家,反而是歐盟不入口伊朗石油,最終得付最高的價格向其他國家買,現在中石油( 857)股價已經很接近再創 3年新高的水平。

Is LTRO the silver bullet? (MIB)

Is LTRO the silver bullet?
Rising tide lifts all boats. Asia ex-Japan equities have risen 13.0% since the European Central Bank (ECB) introduced the 3-year longer-term refinancing obligations (LTRO) loans on 21 Dec 2011. The prospects of further liquidity injection in end-Feb 2012 have further fueled investor optimism lately. One lesson investors have learnt over the past three years, is never to stand in the way of a liquidity train.

Hyflux: the sleeping Merlion (Daiwa)

Hyflux
Target price: S$1.40
Up/downside: -5.4%
Share price (13 Feb): S$1.48
12-month range 1.03-2.27
Initiation: the sleeping Merlion
• Hyflux’s share price slumped in 2011 following the political turmoil in MENA and its lacklustre quarterly results
• Given a slowdown in new orders, the Tuas II Desalination Plant is the only key earnings contributor over the next few quarters
• Coverage initiated with a Hold (3) rating and DCF-based sixmonth target price of S$1.40

STX OSV: Stellar 4Q results (OCBC)

STX OSV reported a stellar set of 4Q results, which were above our and the street’s expectations. Revenue declined by 12.9% YoY to NOK3.1bn, while net profit jumped 116.6% to NOK638m during the quarter. The exceptional high profitability in 4Q was mainly due to successful project deliveries and the release of risk contingencies at the end of complex projects. On a full year basis, revenue increased slightly by 4.4% YoY to NOK12.4bn, while net profit increased by 54.6% YoY to NOK1.6bn, supported by stable operations and productivity improvements. The group has recommended a 10 S cents dividend. We maintain BUY and raised our fair value estimate to S$2.25 (from S$1.60 previously) on higher order intake assumptions.

CapitaMalls Asia: Recurring earnings poised to jump (OCBC)

CMA reported FY11 PATMI of S$456m, down 15.8% YoY. Adjusting for one-time gains in 4Q (S$177m), earnings would fall to S$279m which is above consensus but in line with our FY11 forecast of S$285m. FY11 topline came in at S$246m - mostly flat YoY. Major Shanghai malls, Minhang and Hongkou, have successfully opened for retail operations with related opening costs already accounted for. In our view, the execution of CMA’s growth plan is coming through smoothly and we forecast recurring profit to jump 84% from S$120m in FY11 to S$221m in FY12. We update our model and maintain BUY on CMA as one of our conviction calls amongst developers. Our fair value is raised to S$1.79 from S$1.48 previously, based on a scenario-weighted sum-of-the-parts RNAV valuation.

Wing Tai : Weaker-Than-Expected Earnings (Citi)

Wing Tai Holdings (WTHS.SI)
Sell 3
Price (13 Feb 12) S$1.29
Target price S$1.10
Expected share price return -14.4%
Expected dividend yield 5.4%
Expected total return -8.9%
Alert: Weaker-Than-Expected Earnings

China Sky under police investigation

China Sky under police investigation
by Thomas Cho and Pamela Koh 04:46 AM Feb 17, 2012
SINGAPORE - Mainboard-listed China Sky Chemical Fibre, which has clashed repeatedly with the Singapore Exchange (SGX) over the appointment of a special auditor, is under investigation for possible breaches of the country's financial laws.

Barclays, HSBC, BNP Paribas and 14 others face Moody's downgrade

Barclays, HSBC, BNP Paribas and 14 others face Moody's downgrade
04:46 AM Feb 17, 2012
NEW YORK - Moody's warned yesterday it may cut the credit ratings of 17 global and 114 European financial institutions in another sign the impact of the euro zone government debt crisis is spreading throughout the global financial system.

Private housing market: Second wind?

Private housing market: Second wind?
by Colin Tan 04:46 AM Feb 17, 2012
When last December's dismal showing of only 632 private homes sold were revealed in the middle of last month, many were bracing themselves for further shocks in the coming months. They did receive one just two days ago - only, not the kind they expected.

Thursday, February 16, 2012

Spore-economy-set-for-rebound


2012-0213-57金錢爆(中國上難)


郭鶴年457億衛冕首富‧大馬富豪身家減7%

郭鶴年457億衛冕首富‧大馬富豪身家減7%
Created 02/16/2012 - 17:45

(吉隆坡16日訊)全球信貸危機,以及低迷不振的股市表現,蠶食今年大馬富豪身家,令40大富豪總財產自去年2千零62億7千萬令吉萎縮7%至1千932億令吉,但10億身家富翁人數卻增添3名至30人。

10億身家富翁增至30人

依德利斯:稅收增合理化津貼奏效‧大馬破產風險大減

依德利斯:稅收增合理化津貼奏效‧大馬破產風險大減
Created 02/16/2012 - 18:44

(吉隆坡16日訊)曾發表政府將在2019年破產言論的首相署部長拿督斯里依德利斯今日說,隨著政府稅收增加及合理化津貼等措施奏效,大馬面臨破產的潛在風險已大大減低。

名家手笔:伯南克开镇静剂 债市梦游

名家手笔:伯南克开镇静剂 债市梦游
●Caroline Baum
Created 02/16/2012 - 17:05
亲爱的本:

希望你不介意我称呼你“本”。没有一点不敬的意思,只是我跟你一起这么长的时间——至少是花费那么长时间来思考你的问题,让我觉得咱们已经是朋友了。不管怎么说,你可以叫我凯若琳。

歐元區經濟萎縮‧2年半來首見

歐元區經濟萎縮‧2年半來首見
Created 02/16/2012 - 17:45

(比利時‧布魯塞爾16日訊)歐洲第四季經濟2年半來首度萎縮,主因歐債危機衝擊信心,並迫使西班牙、希臘等國政府加強預算刪減措施。

歐洲聯盟統計局表示,歐元區第四季國內生產總值(GDP)較前一季下滑0.3%,這是2009年第二季(季減0.2%)以來首見GDP較上季萎縮,年增幅則是2009年第四季以來最小(當季年減2.1%)。

OKP doubles Q4 earnings

Business Times - 16 Feb 2012
OKP doubles Q4 earnings

Design-and-build projects yield higher margins; dividend of 2cents per share declared

The market ain't the economy

Business Times - 16 Feb 2012
The market ain't the economy
By R SIVANITHY

IT'S fair to say that the equity market's performance over the past six weeks has caught most players by surprise.

Growth or inflation? (CIMB)

Growth or inflation?
A major overhaul of the data series shows the economy shrinking by a smaller 2.5% qoq SAAR in 4Q11 vs. advance estimates of -4.9%. Yoy, the economy expanded an unchanged 3.6% (+6.0% in 3Q11). Full-year growth was 4.9% (revised 14.8% for 2010). The government maintains its 1-3% growth estimate for 2012; so do we, at 2.8%. Despite slower growth, rising labour and business costs may hold off policy loosening in April.

受中日利好因素刺激 股市冲破3000点

在日本央行把资产购买计划扩大到65万亿日元,以及中国承诺会协助欧盟解决债务危机等利好因素刺激下,本地股市昨日攀升0.8%到3000点以上的水平。

Hi-P: A laggard turnaround play (DBSV)

Hi-P International
BUY S$0.77
(Upgrade from Fully Valued)
Price Target : 12-month S$ 0.95 (Prev S$ 0.43)

A laggard turnaround play
• Restructuring to drag 4Q11 but market share & customer gains to drive strong earnings rebound
• Improved outlook warrants re-rating to 12xFY12 mean PE from -1SD
• Upgrade to Buy. 23% upside to S$0.95 TP and 3-5% yield

Asia Enterprises: “Steel” a Cash Cow (NRA)

Current Price S$0.24
Fair Value S$0.36
“Steel” a Cash Cow
§ Raise target price and maintain Overweight. Asia Enterprises (AEH) 4Q11 earnings were fairly in line with our expectation. We keep our FY12-13 forecast relatively unchanged but up our target price from S$0.335 to S$0.36, pegged at 1x FY12 PBR, or implied 6.5x ex-net cash FY12 PER. We like the company with its strong track record generating positive free cash flow and generous dividend payout, since IPO in 2005, the group has generated a total S$53m positive free cash flow and so far returning S$29m in dividend. Maintain Overweight.

AmanahRaya REIT: Results in line (MIB)

AmanahRaya REIT
Buy (unchanged)
Share price: RM0.92
Target price: RM0.95 (unchanged)

Maintain Buy. AAREIT’s RM42.5m 2011 core net profit (+2.7% YoY) came in as expected. 2011 DPU of 7.2sen was also in line (7.8% yield; 97% payout). Positive earnings surprises could come from the potential sale of Wisma UEP while RM200m new assets target for 2012 could enlarge the earnings base. We fine-tune our earnings forecasts by +1.4-1.6% post actual 2011 results announcement. Our DCF-based target price remains intact at RM0.95.

PCCW: The Breakup That Keeps Giving

Written by Guni Wudao
Thursday, 16 February 2012 07:00
TELECOM GIANT PCCW Ltd (HK: 8) is the breakup story that keeps generating breaking news stories.

As most of us know, tycoon Chairman Richard Li’s PCCW hit a major roadblock in its privatization plan three years ago, with a Hong Kong court blocking the conglomerate’s 2.2 bln usd scheme.

MAS reports China Sky to Commercial Affairs Department

The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) said it has reported the potential breaches of China Sky Chemical Fibre Co to the Commercial Affairs Department.

Hi-P jumps as earnings rebound eyed

Shares of Singapore’s Hi-P International rose as much as 6.5% after brokerage DBS Vickers upgraded the stock, citing increased market share and an expected earnings recovery this year, reported Reuters.

Focus on stocks, not market timing (CIMB)

Focus on stocks, not market timing
Two months into a surprise rally, brokers and investors are sounding almost positive yet again. Our bearish view on an eventual major market sell-down has not changed but we do realise that another dose of QE has again postponed the day of final reckoning.

Saizen REIT: Prudent capital allocation lifts DPU by 17% YoY (NRA)

Saizen REIT:
Prudent capital allocation lifts DPU by 17% YoY (NRA)
Current Price S$0.147
Fair Value S$0.19

17% YoY rise in half-year DPU to 0.61 Scts. 2QFY12 revenue of JPY849.6m fell 12.5% YoY due to the divestment of 26 properties between October 2010 and June 2011, as well as a marginal fall in rental rates of new contracts entered into after 2QFY11.

FJ Benjamin: Supported by the Asian consumer (DMG)

FJ Benjamin: Supported by the Asian consumer
(BUY, S$0.345, TP S$0.41)

FJB’s 2QFY12 PATMI was 15.7% higher YoY, at S$4.8m, as revenue grew 18% to S$109.9m. The results were in line with our estimates. Operating expenses grew, such as staff costs and rentals. These were mainly due to the opening of new outlets at new locations. A&P expenses grew 36% YoY, largely attributed to expenses incurred in supporting a principal’s anniversary celebrations. We have tweaked our FY12 earnings estimates slightly (from S$16.0m to S$15.7m), taking into account the higher expenses incurred in 2Q. We have also adjusted our WACC assumptions, as the outlook remains challenging, against the backdrop of an economic slowdown.

Tat Hong Holdings: Recovery underway (OCCB)

Tat Hong Holdings (Tat Hong) reported a set healthy set of 3Q12 results with revenue and net profit increasing by 43% and 178% YoY to S$196m and S$13m respectively, attributable mainly to higher levels of activity across all divisions. Over a nine months period, net profit was S$31m (a 40% YoY increase), and represented 71% of our FY12F estimates. As the 3Q12 results marked a fourth consecutive quarter of improvement and with net margins reverting back to 6-7% (4Q11: 2.5%; 1Q12: 3.5%; 2Q12: 6.9%; 3Q12: 6.6%), we are optimistic of a steady recovery. Maintain BUY with unchanged fair value estimate of S$1.09 (on 10x FY13F EPS).

Marco Polo Marine: 1QFY12 results in line (OCBC)

Marco Polo Marine (MPM) reported a 26.8% rise in revenue to S$24.6m and a 8.5% increase in net profit to S$4.4m in 1QFY12, within ours and the street’s expectations. The group’s shipyard operations now accounts for 76.4% of total revenue with correspondingly lower contributions from ship chartering as associate BBR has been assuming more of the chartering business. However, BBR’s profits were impacted by one-off forex losses in 1QFY12. The group’s businesses are growing steadily, and the stock currently has an upside potential of about 18% based on our fair value estimate of S$0.43, but this is within our 30% range for small cap stocks. Hence we maintain our HOLD rating.

Syscorp builds on fleet, buys vessels worth RM100mil

The Star Online > Business
Thursday February 16, 2012
Syscorp builds on fleet, buys vessels worth RM100mil
By Jack Wong jackwong@thestar.com.my

KUCHING: Shin Yang Shipping Corp Bhd (Syscorp) has acquired more than 20 vessels, mostly container ships and chemical tankers, from Swee Joo Bhd.

曾淵滄專欄 2012 02 16: Cash is King真正道理

Cash is King真正道理
前陣子二三線股狂熱炒作,我說市場傳出的理由是傳統基金經理入市,這些在去年底過於保守,持有太多現金,現在發現自己跑輸大市,急起直追,為了快步追上,遂集中力量買二三線股,導致二三線股升幅驚人。

BofA Gets Another Downgrade


Should You Be Prepping for an S&P Correction?


FOMC Signalling More QE?


Can The STI And DOW Break Their Resistances This Week?

Can The STI And DOW Break Their Resistances This Week?

sia’s Leading Investment Guru, Mr Hu Li Yang is correct in anticipating the resistance for the Dow at 12,938 and the resistance for the Straits Times Index (STI) at 3,000. On 9 February, the Dow hits 12,924 before retreating to end at 12,801 on Friday, 10 February. Similarly, the STI hits 2,992 points before retreating to end at 2,960 on Friday. These shows the resistances are strong at 12,938 for Dow and 3,000 for STI.

CapitaLand: Bagging another billion (KE)

CapitaLand: Bagging another billion
Another billion-dollar year. CapitaLand reported a FY11 PATMI of $1.06b, 25.8% lower than the previous year. PATMI excluding revaluations would have been $573.5m, largely in line with our expectations. Looking beyond the earnings volatility, the group has demonstrated that its capital recycling model still works. Management is proposing a higher-than-expected total dividend of 8 cents per share, which is a small but pleasant surprise. Maintain Buy.

Marco Polo :Growing strength in operations (AM)

Marco Polo Marine Ltd
LAST CLOSE: S$0.365
FAIR VALUE: S0.530
Growing strength in operations

Revenue up 21% QoQ (+27% YoY) to $24.6m. The shipyard revenue jumped 58% YoY to $18.8m, with newbuilding for associate PT BBR now being partly recognized. Shipping revenue fell 23% to $5.8m as the bulk of the tugs & barges fleet was reflagged Indonesian and sold to the associate.

STX OSV Holdings: 4Q11 results above expectations; upgrade to BUY (DMG)

STX OSV Holdings: 4Q11 results above expectations; upgrade to BUY
(BUY, S$1.54, TP
S$2.00)

Upgrade to BUY; raise TP to S$2.00. STX OSV reported strong 4Q11 net profit of NOK634m (+117% YoY, +71% QoQ), >100% ahead of ours and consensus estimates.

CMA: Better times ahead (DBSV)

CapitaMalls Asia Limited
BUY S$1.48
Price Target : S$ 2.03 (Prev S$ 1.94)
Better times ahead
• Results in line
• Profit uptrend from FY12, from newbuilds and acquisition of completed assets
• Maintain Buy, TP raised slightly to S$2.03

Tiger Airways: Jan-12 traffic down 14% YoY; bumpy ride ahead (CS)

Tiger Airways
Price (13 Feb 12 , S$) 0.80
TP (prev. TP S$) 0.55 (0.55)
Est. pot. % chg. to TP (31)
52-wk range (S$) 1.55 - 0.60
Maintain UNDERPERFORM
Jan-12 traffic down 14% YoY; bumpy ride ahead

● Tiger’ Jan-12 pax traffic fell 14% YoY to 4.7 mn, with Tiger Australia (TAA) operating a limited schedule. However, tentative signs of improving demand, with Jan-12 traffic falling by only 3% MoM (vs peak Dec period), and 3Y average decline of -6% MoM. ● 33% owned Mandala Airways will absorb 88% of Tiger’s FY3/13 aircraft deliveries, but this hinges on Mandala reactivating the AOC later this month. It is critical that Mandala resumes
operations as planned, else the underutilisation of aircraft could push Tiger Singapore into larger losses.

Midas : Light at the end of tunnel (UOBKH)

Midas Holdings
Light at the end of tunnel
NOT RATED
Price/ Target S$0.400/ -
Investment highlights
• Midas Holdings’ (Midas) share price performance in 2011 was a train wreck with a slump of 65% due to the investigation of former China Railway minister for corruption, a high-speed train crash in Wenzhou that killed 40 people and a ballooning debt that the Ministry of Railway (MOR) borrowed heavily to finance its rapid expansion.

CSC Steel: Another Challenging Year (OSK)

CSC Steel Holdings
Fair Value RM1.60
Previous RM1.78
Price RM1.43
Another Challenging Year

CSC Steel posted a net loss of RM2.1m in 4Q but managed a full-year net profit of RM29.6m for FY11. FY11 has been a tough year for CSC Steel which faced strong headwinds arising from the global economic slowdown, sluggish demand for steel products, narrowing margins for cold-rolled coils (CRC) and the prolonged inconsistency of raw materials supply. Nevertheless, we still maintain our Trading BUY call, mainly owing to its solid balance sheet and potential near-term earnings spike, but revise our FV down to RM1.60 after trimming down the earnings estimate for FY12 and switching our valuation method to one based on book value.

China Minzhong: Higher capacity drives mid-term growth (DBSV)

China Minzhong
Higher capacity drives mid-term growth
BUY S$1.01
Price Target : S$ 1.45 (Prev S$ 1.34)
At a Glance
• 2QFY12 profit below our and consensus expectations due to a delayed harvest and sale of crops
• Expect marginally higher costs in 2H12
• Higher capacity and volume sales to drive FY13F earnings growth
• Maintain Buy, TP raised S$1.45

Wing Tai – Too early to be excited (KE)

Wing Tai (WINGT SP) – Too early to be excited
Previous day closing price: $1.285
Recommendation – Hold (maintained)
Target price – $1.12 (raised)

No earnings surprise. Wing Tai reported a 46% YoY improvement in 1HFY Jun12 net profit to $59.3m, largely in line with our expectations. We expect earnings to be more back-end loaded, with greater recognition from the projects under construction in 2HFY Jun12. 2QFY Jun12 earnings came in almost flat YoY at $34.2m. Maintain Hold.

Straits Times Index hits 3,000 mark

Straits Times Index hits 3,000 mark
by Millet Enriquez 04:46 AM Feb 16, 2012
SINGAPORE - The benchmark Straits Times Index (STI) breached the 3,000 level yesterday for the first time since August last year, closing 0.8-per-cent higher at 3,011.68 points by the end of trade.

Property prices spike in Shah Alam

Property prices spike in Shah Alam
By Sharen Kaur
sharen@nstp.com.my
2012/02/16
PROPERTY prices in Shah Alam have climbed steadily over the last five years due to a combination of factors, including highway accessibility, said a real estate expert.

Wednesday, February 15, 2012

資金大規模湧入 新興國股市或停漲

資金大規模湧入 新興國股市或停漲

(紐約15日訊)全球基金逾10年來最大規模的買入新興市場股票以及共同基金,出現15個月來最大流入,但在美國銀行和摩根史丹利眼里是個反向指標,是股市漲勢可能停頓的信號。

房產信託高週息率引青睞

房產信託高週息率引青睞

(吉隆坡15日訊)國內房產信託普遍交出良好的去年第四季業績表現,符合市場的預測。僅管今年第二季與第三季的產業市場將受到環球不穩定的局勢所影響,但市場人士認為,房產信託的高週息率仍將能吸引投資者的青睞。

鮑爾森售花旗美銀股份 續向哈特福德金融施壓

鮑爾森售花旗美銀股份 續向哈特福德金融施壓

(紐約15日訊)2011年績效表現為入行以來最差的億萬富豪基金經理人鮑爾森(John Paulson)向哈特福德金融服務(Hartford Financial Services)管理階層持續施壓,而且他還放棄了兩支押注美國經濟復甦的股票。

2012 年 02 月-葛洛斯投資展望

财经追击 Money Week: Episode 31 Investments in Times of Uncertainties



What and Where To Invest 2012: An Asian Story


Italy slides into recession as budget cuts bite

italy slides into recession as budget cuts bite
Posted: 15 February 2012
MILAN: Italy has slid back into recession following a series of strict budget cuts as the eurozone's third largest economy braces for an even worse contraction this year, official data showed on Wednesday.

海指和道指能否突破阻力?且看它们在本周的表现!_M

海指和道指能否突破阻力?且看它们在本周的表现!
文: 骆伟嵩 2012年02月13日 展望
亚洲股市教父胡立阳老师的判断准确,道琼斯工商指数和海峡时报指数分别在12,938点和3,000点遇到阻力。道指在星期四达到12,924点,然后在星期五回撤至12,801点。海指则一度冲上2,992点,然后在周五收跌至2,960点。这显示12,938点和3,000点分别是海指和道指的强大阻力。

花旗:重蹈苏联覆辙 欧元区最终恐瓦解

花旗:重蹈苏联覆辙 欧元区最终恐瓦解
Created 02/15/2012 - 17:32
(纽约15日讯)花旗集团首席经济学家威廉布尔特说,苏联解体后,各成员国决策机构犯下的错误导致作为地区货币的卢布崩溃,现在欧洲央行有重蹈覆辙的危险。

Budget 2012 – How Will It Deal With The Downturn?

15 FEBRUARY 2012
Budget 2012 – How Will It Deal With The Downturn?
By Simeon Ang
What is your wish-list for this year’s budget? Prior to the budget speech by Minister of Finance Tharman Shanmugaratnam this coming Friday, I know what I would wish for. Some dough ranks on the top of my wish list and probably some credits for training and upgrading purposes. Oh! And an income tax rebate would be nice! I am sure many average Singaporeans share the same view especially in light of the lower figures of GDP growth forecast that economists are pointing out. In case you did not already know, Singapore is forecasted to grow at a subdued rate of one to three percent this year.

2012年财政预算案将会如何应付经济衰退?

2012年财政预算案将会如何应付经济衰退?
文: 汪文龙 (译:麦美莹) 2012年02月15日

您对今年的预算案有什么期望?财政部长尚达曼在来临的星期五将会宣布新一年的财政预算案,我已心中有数。我最希望政府能够派钱,还有就是给予训练和提升技能补贴,如果能够减免入息税那就最好不过!我相信很多新加坡人都有同感,尤其是经济师指出今年的国内生产总值(GDP)增长将会减低。新加坡今年的GDP增长预测被调低至1-3%。

Buying into the Indonesia Story

Business Times - 15 Feb 2012
Buying into the Indonesia Story
Being upgraded to investment grade recently by two rating agencies has put the country on the radar of investors again

Container rates rebound 29%

Business Times - 15 Feb 2012
Container rates rebound 29%
(LONDON) Container rates on the world's biggest international trade route are rallying after US imports of manufactured goods rebounded from the first decline in two years.

CapitaLand Q4 profit down 20% at $477m

Business Times - 15 Feb 2012
CapitaLand Q4 profit down 20% at $477m
The results brought CapitaLand's full-year 2011 net profit to $1.06b

Analysts see weaker US$ as risk appetite returns

Business Times - 15 Feb 2012
Analysts see weaker US$ as risk appetite returns
By EMILYN YAP
(SINGAPORE) Analysts have trimmed their US dollar forecasts barely three months into the new year, as a surprising recovery in market sentiment sent investors away from the greenback towards riskier currencies, including the euro and the Singapore dollar.

巴菲特叫你買股票

巴菲特叫你買股票
鉅亨網新聞中心 (來源:財匯資訊,摘自:證券時報) 2012-02-15
據報導,2月9日,巴菲特在《財富》雜志上發表了他的年度致股東信。信中“股神”認為,“目前投資波動大的股票實際上遠比債券、黃金安全。”

分析〉葡萄牙大力減赤 專家問:減到斷炊 如何能償債?

分析〉葡萄牙大力減赤 專家問:減到斷炊 如何能償債?
鉅亨網 楊琇羽 綜合報導  2012-02-15

深陷巨額國債問題的希臘,在經過一番掙扎與國內強烈反對壓力後,決定遵守歐盟提出的嚴格撙節措施,作為交換最新一輪紓困金的條件。

巴菲特索羅斯4季度買進科技股

新浪財經訊 香港時間周三上午消息 全球最著名的投資者正在買進美國的知名科技股。昨晚公布的監管文件顯示,對沖基金與其它投資者第四季度在蘋果與雅虎等科技股身上發現了投資機會。
股神巴菲特旗下的伯克希爾哈撒韋在第四季度買進了英特爾、IBM。索羅斯的Fund Management LLC購買了谷歌與雅虎,但減持了蘋果。

Genting Hong Kong : A smooth sailing 2011 at NCL (UOBKH)

Genting Hong Kong
(BUY/US$0.375/Target: US$0.33)
A smooth sailing 2011 at NCL

Results
• A good finish for NCL in FY2011. Genting Hong Kong’s (GENHK) 50%-owned JV, NCL Corp, posted an EBITDA of US$500.1m, in line with our forecast. However, FY11 net profit of US$127.8m (+126.7% yoy) beat our full-year forecast of US$110.6m due to a lower-than-expected marketing and general administrative expenses that offset a slightly lower-than-expected revenue (due to lower-than-expected capacity increase).

AirAsia : Finance head joins MAS (CS)

AirAsia
Price (13 Feb 12 , RM) 3.76
TP (prev. TP RM) 4.35 (4.35)
Est. pot. % chg. to TP 16
Maintain OUTPERFORM
Finance head joins MAS

● AirAsia’s Regional Head of Finance to join sister-company MAS as CFO. We are not concerned about the changes in the management team, as succession planning has been in place since 2010. More importantly, Rozman as CFO will help tighten and smoothen the working relationship with MAS.

瑞信与联昌看好 本地上市油棕股表现

瑞信在本月的报告中表示很看好油棕今年的价格表现,预测接下来12个月将有潜能从目前平均的每吨3200令吉攀升到3700令吉。

按图索骥 : IPC企业


17/3/08  13/2/12

这只股票自2008年11月25日下试0.05元,并于当天以“一日转向”讯号止跌回升,同时渐渐形成一个升势“斜向交叉”。2010年元月20日股价上升至0.17元完成了第(二)点,过后以三细波缓缓下滑至2011年11月1日的0.103元,此为第(三)点。过后渐升且于上周(9日)骤升至0.25元,若以上图第(一)至第(二)点价差的1.618倍,计自第(三)点则其第(四)点将在0.29元左右完成,接着将有可观的回扯,并当在0.15元左右结束第(五)点。因此,短线投资者宜全神贯注,酌机套利,因为过后的回扯可能长达数月才会完成第(五)点。

曾淵滄專欄 2012 02 15: 新世界毋須急食糊

新世界毋須急食糊
樓市出現小陽春,二手細價上車盤更出現搶購現象,很自然地,地產股水漲船高,昨日恒指牛皮待變,起落幅度不大,收市時只升 0.15%,但是,地產股升幅則很不錯,新世界發展( 017)升 6.4%,恒地( 012)升近 6%,新地( 016)升 3.5%,長實( 001)升 3.3%。

Ping An: Life rebounding, whilst P&C growth slows (CS)

Ping An Insurance
Price (13 Feb 12 , HK$) 65.20
TP (prev. TP HK$) 72.50 (72.50)
Est. pot. % chg. to TP 11
52-wk range (HK$) 86.5 - 38.3
Maintain NEUTRAL
Life rebounding, whilst P&C growth slows

● Ping An released its monthly premium data, with 16.5% and 9.4% YoY growth in its Life and P&C divisions, respectively, in January 2012.

Water : Ride on the next wave (DBSV)

Technics: A Dragon leap-start to the year (AM)

Technics Oil & Gas
LAST CLOSE: S$0.910
FAIR VALUE: S1.220
A Dragon leap-start to the year

Revenue up 68% QoQ (+58% YoY) to $35.3m, meeting 23% of our forecast. We expect stronger 2Q and 3Q to make up the difference.

CSC Steel : 4Q Performance Improves Operationally (HLG)

CSC Steel (HOLD _, EPS _)
Price Target: RM1.54 (↑)
Share Price: RM1.43

4Q Performance Improves Operationally
Results
_ Below expectations.
2011 net profit of RM29.6m (-57.3%) came in below expectations at 84.3% of our forecast and 78.2% of consensus.

TigerAirways: Load factors disappoint (DBSV)

Tiger Airways Holdings
HOLD S$0.80
Price Target : 12-Month S$ 0.81 (prev: 0.71)
Load factors disappoint
Tiger Airways reported operating numbers for January 2012, which showed that the number of passengers flown dropped 14% y-o-y to 466k, largely as a result of the restriction in number of routes flown in Australia.

China Minzhong: Just a seasonal blip (KE)

Look beyond current set of results. Even excluding a loss of RMB4.4m on fair value of biological assets, China Minzhong’s 2QFY Jun12 results still fell slightly short of our expectations. Headline net profit grew by just 11.8% to RMB174.7m on the back of a 19.4% increase in revenue. However, we reiterate our Buy recommendation as we expect strong 3Q numbers to make up the slack.

Cambridge Industrial Trust: Government takes a bigger bite (Daiwa)

Cambridge Industrial Trust
Target price: S$0.590 → S$0.570
Up/downside: +15.2%
Share price (10 Feb): S$0.495
Government takes a bigger bite
• SLA will take 100% (instead of 35%) of 30 Tuas Road
• DPU for 2013-14E cut by 2.3- 4.4%
• Maintain Buy for DPU yields of over 9%

WING TAI: Slow sales mitigated by healthy books (DMG)

WING TAI HOLDINGS
Price S$1.285
Previous S$0.92
Target S$1.16
Slow s ales mitigated by healthy books

Investing in Kuala Lumpur


BofA Whacked by Citi Downgrade


Strong China Revenue Boosts GLP Results


調整後再留意內銀

調整後再留意內銀
恆指先跌後升,但高位沽壓亦不輕,最終微升百點收市。溫總說要繼續調控房地產,不少內房股都跌近半成。以往內房股跌,很多時連帶內銀都下跌,但昨日傳出中央指示內地銀行讓地方政府延期還款,減低違約風險,內銀股普遍都抽升,支撐住大市。但到尾市部份內銀都倒跌,動力亦自過去幾天開始轉弱。

Parkson Retail Asia IPO


CapitaLand Q4 net falls 20%, bullish on S’pore residential

CapitaLand, Southeast Asia’s largest property developer, posted on Tuesday a 20 % fall in fourth quarter net profit due to lower earnings from developments and smaller portfolio gains, reported Reuters.

China Minzhong: Steadily growing (CIMB)

China Minzhong Food
Current S$1.01
Target S$1.68
Steadily growing

Minzhong delivered earnings growthdespite delays in the cultivation of certain cropsdue to a late winter. Increasesin labour and raw material costsshould be mitigated by theongoing shift to a higher value portfolio. We expect astrong 3Q tohelp support FY12 earnings.

ASLMarine : More reasons to turn optimistic (OCBC)

ASL MARINE
Fair value S$0.68
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.015
versus: Current price S$0.56
12m total return forecast 24%
More reasons to turn optimistic
• Quarterly net profit within expectations
• Order book continues to climb
• Upgrade to BUY

CAPITAMALLS ASIA: RECURRING EARNINGS POISED TO JUMP (OCBC)

CAPITAMALLS ASIA
Fair value S$1.79
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.03
versus: Current price S$1.48
12m total return forecast 23%
RECURRING EARNINGS POISED TO JUMP
• 4Q11 results in line
• Recurring earnings to jump 84%
• Fair value raised to S$1.79

DBS: Strong 4Q, higher fair value of S$15.40 (OCBC)

Summary: DBS Group Holdings (DBS) delivered FY11 net earnings of S$3.04b, up 15%. The improvement was buoyed by record net interest income of S$4.83b, up 12%. Reflective of the healthy corporate loans market in Singapore, loans grew 28% to S$195b. Non-interest income saw mixed performances, but was up by an overall 2% to S$2.81b. Management has announced an unchanged final dividend of 28 cents, bringing full year to 56 cents. DBS’s strengths in certain areas, including its focus on SMEs, Wealth and its regional franchise, should position it well in the current challenging environment. We raised our fair value estimate to S$15.40 (based on 1.3x book) and retain our BUY rating.

China Banking: Prefer larger banks after deposit contraction (DBSV)

China Banking
Prefer larger banks after deposit contraction
January new loans at Rmb738bn. January new loans came in at Rmb738bn, below the median forecast of Rmb1trn from a Bloomberg survey. Total Rmb loans expanded by 15% yoy, down from 2011’s 15.8%. New retail loans, inclusive of mortgages, remained weak at Rmb153bn. We are, however, not concerned as we believe the disappointment was mostly due to an early Chinese New Year. We still expect this year’s new loans to reach Rmb8trn and expand total loans by 14.6% for 2012. We foresee 30% of the Rmb8trn new loans will be added during 1Q12.

Capitaland-expects-latest-cooling-measures-to-hold-back-buyers-for-6-months


Apple shares break US$500 barrier

Updated 11:40 AM Feb 14, 2012
NEW YORK - Shares of Apple rallied above US$500 for the first time after a two-week gain spurred by the iPhone maker's first-quarter earnings report approached 20 per cent.

Tuesday, February 14, 2012

The End Of the Super Bull Run in Singapore Property


Saizen REIT: Results Review (S&P)

Saizen REIT
Price: SGD0.15
Results Review
• 2QFY12 results within expectations. Saizen’s 2QFY12 (Jun) results were broadly within our expectations. Cumulative 1HFY12 net property income of JPY1,149.3 mln accounts for 54% of our original FY12 forecast. Saizen posted an 11.5% YoY decline in net property income on the back of a 12.5% YoY decline in gross revenue in 2QFY12.

Boustead Singapore: Soft quarter, but valuations still enticing (KE)

Soft quarter, but valuations still enticing
Another slow quarter. Boustead experienced another slow quarter, reporting 3QFY Mar12 revenue of $95.3m (-25% YoY, +5% QoQ) and net profit of $5.5m (-58% YoY, -39% QoQ). The results were below our expectations, with 9MFY Mar12 net profit of $23.2m making up only 55% of our full-year forecast. We cut our FYMar12F-13F net profit forecasts by 6-19%, and consequently reduce our SOTP-based target price to $1.18 (from $1.32). The stock remains a Buy on valuation grounds.

ASL Marine: Punching above its weight (CIMB)

ASL Marine
Current S$0.56
Target S$0.72
Punching above its weight

ASL continues to perform admirably amid a still-mixedOSV market, especiallyinthe Asia Pacific. Its latest S$54m ordersbring YTD orders to S$338m, the highest among Batam shipbuilders.

Tianjin-Ecocity-enters-new-phase-as-first-residents-move-in

TIANJIN : The Tianjin Eco-city has entered a new phase as it welcomes its first residents, amenities, ready-built factories and other facilities.

The city is the result of a collaborative agreement between China and Singapore.

Located in Tianjin, the Eco-city was conceptualised as an environmentally-friendly, resource-conserving city in China.

5年來首次‧中A股本益比低於港H股

5年來首次‧中A股本益比低於港H股
Created 02/13/2012 - 19:22

隨著上海股市成交量的萎縮,中國A股相對與香港H股可能出現5年來首次折價。

今日圖表所示為,2006年以來上海市場A股和香港H股相對於預期每股純益的本益比水準之間的差值。彭博新聞彙編的資料顯示,截至2月7日,上海A股指數本益比為9.4倍,恒生中國企業指數為8.5倍。上海A股指數相對於恒生中國企業指數11%的溢價水準為2007年2月份以來最低。圖中下表為A股成交額與港股成交額之差。

'Boring' DBS delivers - big

Business Times - 14 Feb 2012
Hock Lock Siew
'Boring' DBS delivers - big
By SIOW LI SEN
ONE can't say that the release of fourth-quarter results by DBS - the first of the three local banks here to do so - wasn't widely anticipated. DBS is such a banking titan in our part of the world that a few media organisations even sent two reporters to cover the event, to make sure nothing got missed.

Boustead Q3 profit takes a dive after Thai floods

Business Times - 14 Feb 2012
Boustead Q3 profit takes a dive after Thai floods
By VICTORIA HO
BOUSTEAD Singapore's net profit nosedived more than half following disruptions in its supply chain after the Thai floods last year.

Rickmers keeps Q4 DPU at 0.6 US cts

Business Times - 14 Feb 2012
Rickmers keeps Q4 DPU at 0.6 US cts
By LYNN KAN

RICKMERS Maritime reported distribution per unit for the fourth quarter ended Dec 31, 2011 of 0.60 US cents, unchanged from the year-ago period.

SingTel Q3 profit drops on weaker contributions

Singtel: Still Seeing Pressure Points (DMG)

Singapore Telecommunications
Price S$3.11
Previous S$3.13
Target S$3.04
Still Seeing Pressure Points
We maintain our NEUTRAL call on Singtel. At the 3QFY12 (Dec quarter) results conference call, Singtel said its strategy to focus on the longer-term non-carriage business will come at the expense of margins in the medium term, which does not surprise us. The competitive headwinds Down Under are likely to put further pressure on Optus’ ARPU and margin. Notwithstanding the reaffirmed guidance, our FY12/13 EPS is trimmed by <5%, after building in the recurring cost for Netlink Trust and moderating our EBITDA assumption on Optus. Singtel’s dividend yield of 5.1% should lend some support to its share price.

Wing Tai : High-end volumes at a standstill (CIMB)

Wing Tai Holdings
Current S$1.29
Target S$1.33
High-end volumes at a standstill

Wingtai’s results wasa non-event, with the timing of progressive recognitionspropping up associates income. The earnings uncertainty comes from a protracted lull in high-end volumes. While its share price reflects this, we have yet to see a turning point.

2012 Small Caps: Not stopping the love (KE)

2012 Small Caps: Not stopping the love

Small is gold. A seasoned investor once quipped: “Nobody got rich buying blue chips.” He has a point. Small sums of money invested in undervalued small-cap stocks still appear to offer the best hope for the greatest return. Even institutional funds buy into this logic, picking out small caps for their portfolio in the hope of generating outperformance.
Warren E. Buffett(沃伦•巴菲特)
Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful
别人贪婪时我恐惧, 别人恐惧时我贪婪
投资只需学好两门课: 一,是如何给企业估值,二,是如何看待股市波动
吉姆·罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)
“错过时机”胜于“搞错对象”:不会全军覆没!”
做自己熟悉的事,等到发现大好机会才投钱下去

乔治·索罗斯(George Soros)

“犯错误并没有什么好羞耻的,只有知错不改才是耻辱。”

如果操作过量,即使对市场判断正确,仍会一败涂地。

李驰(中国巴菲特)
高估期间, 卖对, 不卖也对, 买是错的。
低估期间, 买对, 不买也是对, 卖是错的。

Tan Teng Boo


There’s no such thing as defensive stocks.Every stock can be defensive depending on what price you pay for it and what value you get,
冷眼(冯时能)投资概念
“买股票就是买公司的股份,买股份就是与陌生人合股做生意”。
合股做生意,则公司股份的业绩高于一切,而股票的价值决定于盈利。
价值是本,价格是末,故公司比股市重要百倍。
曹仁超-香港股神/港股明灯
1.有智慧,不如趁势
2.止损不止盈
成功者所以成功,是因为不怕失败!失败者所以失败,是失败后不再尝试!
曾淵滄-散户明灯
每逢灾难就是机会,而是在灾难发生时贱价买股票,然后放在一边,耐性地等灾难结束
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