Saturday, February 4, 2012

ASEAN marketing feedback (UOBKH)

Strategy – Singapore
ASEAN marketing feedback
Investors are generally neutral on Singapore and see stock-picking as a strategy to outperform the FSSTI. We see a trading range of 2,500-3,180 and favour DBS, FCT, CMT, Ezion, M1, Venture, OUE and GENS. What’s New

How to turn your $1,000 into $1 million

How to turn your $1,000 into $1 million
It won't be easy - but it's not impossible.

Thu, Jan 05, 2012
Men's Health
Sounds too far-fetched? We'll show you how, if you have a grand to spare.

It won't be easy - but it's not impossible. With some stocks growing more than a few hundred times since their IPO prices (think: Apple), it's quite possible!

The key is in spotting the cash cows early. Here are the signs to look out for.

Use a cash flow statement to make a better investment

Wednesday, Dec 07, 2011
The Business Times

Use a cash flow statement to make a better investment

Ask Dr Invest

Q: I am an investor who regularly keeps an eye on macro and micro issues. However, I do look at financial data such as low PE, PB, NAV, stable dividend and also balance sheet of companies.

The link between interest rates and investments

Wednesday, Oct 26, 2011
The Business Times
The link between interest rates and investments

By Teh Shi Ning
WITH investing, there are any number of factors which influence your portfolio's value but lie entirely outside of your sphere of influence. Interest rates are one such variable.

2012-0131-57金錢爆(冲高冲高再冲高 加碼加碼再加碼)


CNBC Managing Asia : YTL Francis Yeoh


亚洲经营者:新加坡航空公司CEO 周俊成

探究股价十年涨十倍的启示 寻找A股滚雪球长坡

探究股价十年涨十倍的启示 寻找A股滚雪球长坡
http://www.sina.com.cn 2011年12月05日 09:52 大众证券报
以史为鉴,股价十年上涨十倍,成长股是靠紧跟社会经济发展趋势炼成的。展望未来,选择成长股的核心,也是设法把握中国未来经济增长和社会变革的方向,寻找“滚雪球”的长坡。

StarHub Ltd: BUY with higher S$3.10 fair value (ocbc)

StarHub Ltd reported better-than-expected 4Q11 results, with revenue coming in 7% and net profit 28% above our forecasts. For FY11, revenue and earnings were 2% and 7% higher than expected. It has also declared a quarterly $0.05/share dividend as guided. For 2012, management expects operating revenue to grow in the low single-digit range, while service EBITDA margin to be around 30%. It also expects to spend around 11% of operating revenue as capex; this also includes maintenance capex to meet the IDA’s recently-announced stricter service requirements. And as before, it will maintain its S$0.20 per share dividend, or S$0.05 per quarter. We have modestly bumped up our FY12 earnings estimate by 4% to account for the margin improvement. And in line with its latest capex guidance, our DCF-based fair value improves from S$3.00 to S$3.10. While StarHub was the best performing telco stock in 2011, we continue to like its defensive earnings and attractive dividend yield. Maintain BUY.

The new get-rich rules

The new get-rich rules

SO WHAT IF THE economy looks like it's on the brink of another downturn?

Because this could jolly well be the year that you start your journey towards amassing an abundance of wealth.

How?

印尼三龙柱 盖出投资天堂

印尼三龙柱 盖出投资天堂
Created 02/04/2012 - 18:27

(耶加达4日讯)在全球贸易趋缓之际,印尼以庞大的内需潜力、强劲的经济成长吸引全球投资人目光,在近来信评获调升为投资级后,更成为最新投资天堂。

新投資需發債融資‧沿海工程或私有化

新投資需發債融資‧沿海工程或私有化
Created 02/04/2012 - 13:21

(吉隆坡3日訊)沿海工程(COASTAL,5071,主板工業產品組)現僅以2012財政年本益比6倍交易,遠落後於區域平均本益比16倍,分析員因而預見,這廉價物美的超越大市股,持續是私有化的最佳“候選人”。

傳APH獲聯昌財團注資‧工程或重啟‧睦興旺鬆口氣

傳APH獲聯昌財團注資‧工程或重啟‧睦興旺鬆口氣
Created 02/04/2012 - 13:32

(吉隆坡3日訊)由聯昌集團(CIMB,1023,主板金融組)主導的一支財團盛傳與睦興旺工程(MUHIBAH,5703,主板建筑組)聯手通過債務轉換股票方式收購亞洲石油樞紐(ASIA PETROLEUM CLU或APH)高達75%股權,為後者注入新生命力,以完成未竣工的工程。

沿海工程競標合約‧進軍印尼油氣上遊業務

沿海工程競標合約‧進軍印尼油氣上遊業務
Created 02/04/2012 - 18:10

(吉隆坡4日訊)沿海工程(COASTAL,5071,主板工業產品組)競標多項合約,以讓山打根的造船公司進軍印尼油氣領域的上遊業務。

雲頂邁阿密建賭場計劃碰釘

雲頂邁阿密建賭場計劃碰釘
Created 02/04/2012 - 18:15

(吉隆坡4日訊)雲頂(GENTING,3182,主板貿服組)在邁阿密興建3家大賭場的計劃碰釘,因美國佛羅里達州眾議員週五反對並擱置對有關法案進行投票,預料今個會期也不會再次考慮。

Time to re-assess price-to-book stock picks?

Business Times - 04 Feb 2012

SHOW ME THE MONEY
Time to re-assess price-to-book stock picks?

Including dividend yield in the decision appears to capture the cream of the crop

By TEH HOOI LING
SENIOR CORRESPONDENT

TWO weeks ago, I tested the strategy of buying baskets of stocks with varying ratios of dividend yield to price-to-book ratio.

Singapore lauded as trust centre

Business Times - 04 Feb 2012
Singapore lauded as trust centre

Republic is the most progressive globally and is trust jurisdiction of choice among Asia's high net worth: leading lawyer

By GENEVIEVE CUA
PERSONAL FINANCE EDITOR

SINGAPORE is 'without doubt' the most progressive trust centre in the world, says Gurbachan Singh, managing partner at KhattarWong and a leading tax lawyer.

Second Chance H1 profit up 8%; proposes warrant bonus

Business Times - 04 Feb 2012
Second Chance H1 profit up 8%; proposes warrant bonus

By R SIVANITHY

LISTED property and retail group Second Chance Properties posted an 8 per cent increase in net profit to $9.6 million for the six months ended Dec 31, 2011.

Penny stocks to the fore as STI treads water

Business Times - 04 Feb 2012

STOCKS
Penny stocks to the fore as STI treads water

By R SIVANITHY
SENIOR CORRESPONDENT

HIGH liquidity provided ample support for the Straits Times Index (STI) this week as the index gained a net one point over the five days at 2,917.95. But the real story lay in the explosion of interest in penny stocks, most of which cost under 10 cents.

Mobius stays bullish on emerging markets

Business Times - 04 Feb 2012
Mobius stays bullish on emerging markets

Valuations remain near all-time lows; possible QE3 gives added boost

Weekend Comment Feb 3: SIA flies lower as competition heats up, margins thin

Weekend Comment Feb 3: SIA flies lower as competition heats up, margins thin
ON FEB 2, Singapore Airlines reported lower than expected results for the nine months to Dec 31, 2011, undermined by soaring jet fuel costs, losses from its cargo business and declining returns from investments in its associates -- notably Tiger Airways.

曹仁超:股票是2012年最佳投资方式

凤凰卫视1月29日访谈
观点1:1月份A股市场已到底部

《亚洲经营者》星和移动 Neil Montefiore


《亚洲经营者》 面包新语创始人主席:郭明忠


索罗斯是一个很重视本金的人



【Mr.X 艾克斯】BDI指數跌破金融海嘯的最低點

GS may sell US$1bn of ICBC Shares

What's New:

Media reported Goldman Sachs may sell some of its ICBC shares worth US1bn. If the news is confirmed, this will be the fourth time GS reducing its stake in ICBC.

The last share placing: The last placing from GS was Nov-2011, in which they intended to sell 2.4bn of ICBC shares. At the end, only 1.75bn shares (HKD8.5bn) were sold due to the worries of European debts crisis. The price of the placing was HK$4.88, implied a discount of 6%. GS held 8.4bn ICBC shares after this placing.

Asia Container Shipping: A Tussle between Sentiment and Reality (Citi)

Asia Container Shipping
Alert: A Tussle between Sentiment and Reality
 Volatility rises; recent rally is not a secular upturn – Better economic data, relief in global liquidity concerns, and recent announcements of rate-hike intentions have sparked interest in liner stocks mainly based on positive sentiment, but there are not yet any conclusive data pointing to a narrowing of the supply-demand imbalance to support liners’ rate hike intentions. YTD, sentiment (hope of rate hike and higher idle capacity) has trumped reality (low freight rates and poor earnings) and liner stocks have advanced 15%. We do not recommend chasing the rally, but instead adopt a bottom-up stock-picking approach focused on identifying valuation mispricing opportunities. Buy Wan Hai and SITC; Sell NOL, OOIL, Yang Ming Marine, and Evergreen Marine

Muhibbah: Reversal of fortune (CIMB)

Muhibbah Engineering
Current RM1.41
Target RM1.63
Reversal of fortune
The APH saga has taken a positive twist as a CIMB Bank-led restructuring is reportedly in the works. If successful, it would bring in the additional funds needed to complete the project. For Muhibbah, it would mean no provisions and possibly, additional APH works.

Beyond Restocking if the Cycle Is to Progress Further (Citi)

Beyond Restocking if the Cycle Is to Progress Further
 Is the restocking trade done? — The 12% rise in the STI Index from its low in 20 Dec and 10% YTD mirrors what we had expected as part of the restocking-led bounce across 1H12. We see this as a replay of early 2002, with investors reading the bottoming-out of Singapore’s electronics exports as a catalyst to reweight portfolios in Singapore. Singapore has been amongst the cheapest markets in Asean and historically responds well to the restocking trade. However, given the pace of recovery, investors may have priced in a good part of the restocking trade. For the Singapore market to progress further, investors will need to see evidence that points to sustained growth into 2012 beyond a short restocking-led bounce across 1Q12.

SIA: A creditable performance (KE)

Singapore Airlines
A creditable performance
Lower earnings, but earnings nonetheless. Singapore Airlines (SIA) posted 3QFY Mar12 net profit of $135.2m, a 53% decline over 3QFY Mar11. Despite the erosion, we contend that posting profits in such a challenging environment was a creditable performance. While the numbers were slightly below expectations due to sustained high fuel prices, we still see SIA as the airline best-positioned to emerge into strength from the current downturn. We maintain our Buy call and target price of $14.40. Our valuation of 1.2x P/BV is based on SIA’s robust balance sheet.

Frasers Commercial Trust: Lift from Australia (DBSV)

Frasers Commercial Trust
Lift from Australia
BUY S$0.765
Price Target : S$ 1.08
At a Glance
• Performance lifted by higher contribution from Central Park and healthy portfolio occupancy
• Interest savings from early refinancing of its AUD loan and possibility more from SGD loan in 2H
• Maintain BUY and S$1.08 TP

Perennial China Retail Trust: Deepens exposure into Chengdu (DBSV)

Perennial China Retail Trust
BUY S$0.545
Price Target : 12-Month S$ 0.83

Deepens exposure into Chengdu
• Seeks approval to buy 50% stake in Chengdu Longemont Mall
• Attractive pricing, financing flexibility minimises risk, strong total return potential
• Maintain Buy and S$0.83 TP

Coastal: Breaking boundaries (DBSV)

Coastal Contracts
BUY RM2.29
Price Target : 12-Month RM 3.25

Breaking boundaries
• Sustainable 2012 order book; upsides may follow
• FPSO and LNG contracts may quadruple orderbook
• Reiterate Buy with RM3.25 TP

Robust FY12. Coastal has a healthy current order book of RM610m, sustainable till 2012. We expect operating margins to fall to pre-2009 levels of c.20%, though vessel orders should remain strong on the back of increasing investments by Petronas and replacement demand in the face of diverging utilisation rates between old and new fleets. The recent joint venture announced on 22 Dec 2011 between Coastal and various parties to bid for offshore O&G contracts could jump-start the company’s fabrication segment on top of greater sales in the Malaysian region.

StarHub : Strong margins (KE)

StarHub (STH SP) – Strong margins
Previous day closing price: $2.83
Recommendation – Buy (maintained)
Target price – $3.27 (maintained)
Strong close to 2011. The feared negative impact on margins from strong iPhone 4S sales did not materialise. Even excluding capex-related cost provisions, service EBITDA margin was in line with guidance of 30%. StarHub continued to guide for revenue growth and stable margins in 2012, and reiterated its commitment to a stable dividend. Buy with target price of $3.27 based on a 6.5% yield target.

Locations of two more mass rapid transit lines identified

The Star Online > Business
Saturday February 4, 2012
Locations of two more mass rapid transit lines identified

By SHARIDAN M.ALI
sharidan@thestar.com.my

UNDER the Greater KL/ Klang Valley Land Public Transport Master Plan draft, the Government has generally identified the locations of the other two mass rapid transit (MRT2) lines.

The Greater KL/Klang Valley Region is identified as the critical economic growth centre as it generates over 37% of the nation’s gross domestic product.

The region comprises Kuala Lumpur, Putrajaya, Klang, Kajang, Subang Jaya, Selayang, Shah Alam, Ampang Jaya and Sepang.

MRT Co speeding up the award of contracts

The Star Online > Business
Saturday February 4, 2012
MRT Co speeding up the award of contracts

THE Klang Valley My Rapid Transit (KVMRT), the country's largest infrastructure project, is already gaining traction with the recent award of the two big packages worth RM1.74bil. This is the start of slew of other packages to be awarded this year to develop the multi-billion project. MRT Co chief executive officer Datuk Azhar Abdul Hamid shares with StarBizWeek a glimpse of what to expect on the KVMRT.

Tiger Airways: Waiting for the turnaround (DBSV)

Tiger Airways Holdings
HOLD S$0.695
Price Target : 12-Month S$ 0.70 (Prev S$ 0.71)

Waiting for the turnaround
• Under-utilisation of fleet and high fuel costs lead to another quarter of losses for Tiger Airways
• Fleet deployment options open up with investment in Indonesian low cost carrier PT Mandala Airlines
• Tiger is unlikely to re-rate unless it is able to turnaround its core Singapore operations
• Maintain HOLD with TP of S$0.70

2012-0120-57金錢爆(黃金吸血鬼)


United States job market surges, Dow up

United States job market surges, Dow up
04:46 AM Feb 04, 2012
WASHINGTON - Employers in the United States created jobs last month at the most robust pace since last spring, giving the stock market a fillip as investors saw the data as a sign that the growth momentum of the world's largest economy carried into the new year.

Non-farm payrolls rose by 243,000 last month, the Labour Department said yesterday, marking the biggest gain since April. The jobless rate fell by two-tenths of a percentage point to 8.3 per cent, the lowest since February 2009 and the fifth straight month the rate had declined. The last time the unemployment rate dropped for five straight months was in late 1994.

Malaysian penny stocks in limelight

Malaysian penny stocks in limelight
2012/02/04
Share prices on Bursa Malaysia ended in positive territory yesterday on continued bargain hunting of penny stocks, dealers said.
The positive sentiment was in tandem with regional bourses, backed by sustained inflows, the US Fed's stance and reduced worries over the eurozone crisis.

The FBM KLCI ended 1.68 points higher at 1,538.77 after fluctuating between 1,526.03 and 1,541.31 throughout the day.

StanChart neutral on Malaysian equities

StanChart neutral on Malaysian equities


2012/02/04


StanChart's chief investment strategist is certain that the Malaysian market will deliver reasonable returns to investors in 2012 compared to last year.

KUALA LUMPUR: Standard Chartered Bank (StanChart) has a neutral outlook on Malaysian equities this year, says its chief investment strategist Steve Brice.

However, Brice is certain that the local market, together with the rest of the regional equity markets, will deliver reasonable returns to investors in 2012 compared to last year.

The forecast, he said, is made against the backdrop of a fundamentally strong Asian economies and well supported by strong policy response framework.

Friday, February 3, 2012

投资指数基金的十大理由

投资指数基金的十大理由
BWCHINESE中文网 作者:刘建位 徐晓杰 2012-02-01
如果你什么都不懂、什么都不会、什么都不能,没时间、没精力,也没能力,那么你战胜市场的可能性极小,最好的选择不是去战胜市场,而是跟随市场。
只要听巴菲特的一句话,定期投资指数基金,再也不用选股、选时、选基金,就能战胜绝大多数股民和基民,而且能够战胜大多数基金经理和专业机构投资者。为什么呢?

在《巴菲特教你买基金》中详细分析了投资指数基金的十大理由。

上半年市場大波動 VIP投資策略避風險

上半年市場大波動 VIP投資策略避風險

(吉隆坡3日訊)標準渣打銀行認為,2012年的投資環境仍將面對巨大波動性,並建議投資者秉持「VIP」投資策略,即關注三個關鍵詞「波動性」(Volatility)、「通脹」(Inflation)和「回酬」(Paid)。

GMG jumps; broker highlights underperformance

Shares of Singapore-listed rubber firm GMG Global (GMGG.SI) surged as much as 12% after Standard Chartered said its stock price underperformance relative to rubber prices was unjustified, reported Reuters.
By 10:15 a.m. on Wednesday, GMG shares were up 9.4% at $0.151 with nearly 155 million shares traded. This was 2.3 times its average full-day volume traded over the last five sessions.

Rubber prices have risen 27% from their lows in mid-November, but GMG's shares fell 16%, Standard Chartered said in a report.

外資規避風險‧亞股展望仍樂觀‧渣打:新興市場波動擴大

外資規避風險‧亞股展望仍樂觀‧渣打:新興市場波動擴大
Created 02/03/2012 - 17:45

(吉隆坡3日訊)渣打銀行首席投資策略員史蒂夫表示,包括大馬在內的新興國家股票市場雖逐漸揚升,而且相信能在未來12個月內持穩,但他認為這股勢力短期內仍無法趨穩,特別是新興市場的波動性已逐漸擴大。

Record bunker fuel charges sink shipping profits

Business Times - 03 Feb 2012


Record bunker fuel charges sink shipping profits

(LONDON) Record prices for ship fuel are compounding losses at freight companies already suffering from the worst January on record for transport rates.

Prices of so-called bunkers fuel averaged US$728.18 a tonne in Singapore last month, exceeding the all-time high of July 2008, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Shipping fuel rose 30 per cent from a year earlier as Russian exports fell, Japanese demand increased and supplies contracted in Singapore, the world's biggest bunker port.

Penny stocks still being churned

Business Times - 03 Feb 2012

STOCKS
Penny stocks still being churned

Turnover excluding foreign currency issues was 3.3 billion units worth $1.9b for an average of 57 cents per unit

By R SIVANITHY
SENIOR CORRESPONDENT

BETTER-THAN-EXPECTED United States manufacturing data yesterday helped push the Straits Times Index (STI) up some 20 points to an intraday high of 2,925 but a soft opening for Europe brought the index down to 2,901.04 yesterday for a nett loss of 3.72 points.

Penny stock activity in the meantime remained feverish, led by GMG, Oceanus, and United Fiber System. Turnover excluding foreign currency issues was 3.3 billion units worth $1.9 billion for an average of 57 cents per unit - higher than Wednesday's 38 cents but still firmly in penny territory.

Genting S'pore's prospects given the thumbs-up

Business Times - 03 Feb 2012


Genting S'pore's prospects given the thumbs-up

Opening of new hotel, aquarium will add to attractions

By PAULINE NG
IN KUALA LUMPUR

A MAJOR laggard in 2011, Genting Singapore (GenS) appears on course to ride the water dragon's prosperity this year, according to gaming analysts.

Continuing strong crowds - albeit somewhat thinner at about 125,000 compared to 150,000 last year owing to the opening of competitor Marina Bay Sands - and full occupancy at its hotels early in the first week of the new lunar year has analysts bullish about its prospects. Despite an uptick in rates to over S$400 room/night, forward bookings up to the end of next month look robust, Hwang-DBSVickers observed in a client report.

In the coming months, the opening of Hotel Equarius will add another 172 rooms and 22 luxury beach villas, while an aquarium and water theme park in the second half will add to the integrated resort's attraction.

Oil Services: Unloved; very deep in value; potential multi-baggars (UOBKH)

Oil Services
Unloved; very deep in value; potential multi-baggars

What’s New
• Unloved and ignored.
The underperformance of small-cap Singapore oil services stocks to that of the large-cap shipyard stocks like Keppel Corp (Keppel) and Sembcorp Marine (SMM) since mid-10 is glaring (see chart below). Despite continuing high oil price (WTI) of close to US$100/bbl, share prices of oil services stocks have fallen by 28% on average compared with an appreciation of 40% for Keppel and 29% for SMM. This was not the case during the 2003/09 cycle. Then, the oil services stocks synchronized closely with the large shipyard stocks and oil prices.

Cambridge Industrial Trust: Sailing through calm waters (DBSV)

Cambridge Industrial Trust
Sailing through calm waters
BUY S$0.505
Price Target : S$ 0.56
At a Glance
• Steady 4Q11 results in line
• New properties underpin earnings growth in FY12
• Buy for stable yields of 9.6-9.8%. TP of S$0.56 remains unchanged

Comment on Results
DPU of 1.118 Scts in line. Cambridge REIT (CREIT) reported a topline and net property income growth of 9% and 7% to S$20.m and S$18.1m respectively. Growth was attributed to contribution from assets acquired since the start of 2011, as well as periodic rental escalation for certain properties. Portfolio occupancy remained high at 98.5% (vs 98.7% in 3Q11) while arrears remained low at 0.6% (vs 0.2% in 3Q11). Distributable income grew by 11% to S$13.3m, translating to a DPU of 1.118 Scts (down 6% due to larger unit base). A slight revaluation gain of S$2.7m raised NAV to S$0.62.

Frasers Commercial Trust: A step closer to catalysts (CIMB)

Frasers Commercial Trust
Current S$0.77
Target S$0.84

A step closer tocatalysts
Positives in 1Q came from renewals at China SquareCentral (CSC) and occupancy increases at KeyPoint. With the start of discussions on early refinancing of its expensive SGD loan and lapsing of the CSC master lease in Mar, we think FCOT is a step closer to realising its catalysts.

1Q12 DPU was in line with our estimate, forming 24% of our full-year forecast. We expect back-end loaded interest cost savings. We retain our DPU and DDM-based target price (disc. rate: 9.4%). Forward yields of 8% are attractive. We keep our OUTPERFORM call.


Starhill Global REIT : Awaiting Wisma Atria (UOBKH)

Starhill Global REIT – Singapore
Share Price S$0.605
Target Price S$0.700
Upside +15.7%
4Q11: Awaiting Wisma Atria
Results
• Results in line with expectations. Starhill Global REIT (SGREIT) reported a 4Q11 distributable income of S$19.6m (-2.9% yoy, +1.0% qoq) and a DPU of 1.01 S cents (-2.9% yoy, +1.0% qoq). The total DPU for 2011 was 4.12 S cents (+5.6% yoy). 2011’s DPU is in line with our expectations, accounting for 100% of our full-year DPU estimate of 4.1 S cents.

• 2011 revenues increased 8.7% yoy to S$180.1m and net property income (NPI) increased 10.1% yoy to S$143.6m, driven by revenue contributions from the acquisitions of Starhill Gallery and Lot 10 properties in Malaysia in Jan 11. The 0.6% yoy dip in NPI in 4Q11 was due to negative rental reversions for office leases, together with rental disruption from the asset enhancement initiative (AEI) at Wisma Atria.

• Gearing remains prudent at 30.8%, up 0.7ppt qoq, while average interest rates (excluding upfront costs) fell 0.19ppt to 3.25% p.a. following the redemption of a ¥1.5b (S$25m) bond with proceeds from the issuance of a five-year ¥1.6b bond in Dec 11. SGREIT has no major refinancing requirements until 2013.

• Revaluation gains of S$28.3m were reported for SGREIT’s property portfolio, excluding the impact of capex and forex translation, largely from higher valuations for Wisma Atria (S$21.9m) and Ngee Ann City(S$16.9m), offset against lower valuations for SGREIT’s Japan properties (-S$20.9m).

• Portfolio occupancy improved 7bps qoq to 98.7%, driven by a 3.1ppt rise in occupancies for Ngee Ann City offices to 94.9% and also a 1.9ppt improvement in the occupancies of SGREIT’s Japan portfolio to 96.3%, from 94.4%.

Tiger Airways: Be boldwhen others are fearful (CIMB)

Tiger Airways
Current S$0.70
Target S$0.87
Be boldwhen others are fearful
Tiger Australia cuttinglosses by two-thirds sequentiallyis commendable.Itwould have brokeneven, ifnot for idle capacity.Group losses should narrowin the coming quarterson betterfleet utilisation and stronger yields. The worst isover, we believe.

We are sticking to our non-consensus Trading Buyrecommendation.We maintain our FY12-14 estimates whileour target price, based on 20x CY13 EPS, is unchanged.

CapitaRetail China Trust: Operating metrics continue to improve; Results inline (BoA)

CapitaRetail China Trust
Price S$1.14
Price Objective S$1.35
Operating metrics continue to improve; Results inline
Maintain Buy, PO S$1.35/shr
We maintain our Buy call on CRCT and PO of S$1.35/shr. We are positive on the long-term outlook for the China retail property market. Positioned in a high growth market, CRCT benefits from positive rental reversion, potential valuation upside and offers a secure 7.9% 2012 dividend yield. We have adjusted our FY12-14 DPU estimates marginally by +3% to account for the results.

Asian Cyclicals to See Up to 40% Upside: Analyst




Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: CNBC
Publish date: 02/02/12

Singapore Airlines Posts Weak Earnings



Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: CNBC
Publish date: 02/02/12

曾淵滄專欄 2012 02 03: 奧巴馬連任睇歐洲

奧巴馬連任睇歐洲


股市升市不錯,這個龍年開市至今表現得很理想,儘管人民銀行沒有再降低存款準備金率,內地 A股的表現還算不錯,只要內地 A股不跌,港股就有運走了,因為美股正是氣勢如虹,美國總統奧巴馬開動競選機器,成為全球股市升市的火車頭,歐債危機玩了兩年,整來整去也整不死歐元,短期內,奧巴馬也不會有興趣再去狙擊歐元、歐債及歐豬五國,因為在現階段狙擊歐洲經濟,導至歐洲不景氣,對美國而言也是不利的,會影響美國產品輸往歐洲,現階段最好是全球一起繁榮,則奧巴馬可以順利連任。
現在,市場再度傳出 QE3,我曾經說過中國政府很不喜歡 QE3,美國推 QE3,中國政府就可能收緊銀根,因為 QE2印出來的錢都流入美國金融界,金融圈子水浸就四處流,搞出中國的通脹,因此 QE3不一定是好消息,除非美國聯儲局有能力使到 QE3的錢不外流。


儲局未諗通印鈔用途
我倒想到一個好方法,那就是聯儲局印鈔票,以超低息率的價格,大量買入美國政府旗下兩家房地產按揭公司——房利美與房貸美的債券,這兩家公司取得大量超低息現金後,就可以借給美國人買樓,推高樓價,再一次製造美國房屋市場的泡沫,只要美國樓價一升,美國負資產一族可以脫困,就會增加消費,房地產公司見到樓價上升,就會多建房子,這就是實體經濟的增長了,這總比 QE2只用來買美國國債好得多,美國國債目前不怕沒買家,還很搶手呢,不需要 QE3來買,這也是為甚麼從去年 7月至今,聯儲局不再搞 QE的原因,因為聯儲局還未想通:印了鈔票來幹甚麼?

Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 隱形富豪投資王之路
Publish date:03/02/12

中信:农业板块有望反弹

(北京路透电)中国2012年中央一号文件出炉,中信证券发布报告称,农业板块有望在1号文件等政策因素以及部分公司业绩兑现过程中迎来反弹行情,其中种子、农机板块将最受益于该文件。

  报告并称,比照发达国家农业科技投入约占农业国内生产总值(GDP)2.5%的比例,在中国当前6-7万亿农业增加值的背景下,未来中国农业科技投入料至少达约2000亿元人民币(约400亿新元)。

  “我们认为,农业板块1月份的急跌,既有行业景气见顶后估值回归的因素,更有大盘下挫后的补跌因素。

  短期来看,这种下跌已经基本结束,”报告称。

  报告并分析,改良栽培模式作为农业科技的一项重要内容,将有望大幅提升收获机、滴灌设备等农机需求,农业机械装备行业或有望迎来快速增长期,文件所提及的完善农技推广服务体系,有望对龙头企业产生较强的正外部效应。

  报告指出,最看好的个股包括隆平高科、登海种业、关注新研股份、亚盛集团及大禹节水等。

  中国周三发布的一号文件称,要把农业科技摆上更加突出的位置,必须大幅度增加农业科技投入,保证财政农业科技投入增幅明显高于财政经常性收入增幅。



Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 联合早报
Publish date: 03/02/12

海皇轮船股价飙升至半年来新高

(王阳发报道)美国经济不断传利好消息,亚洲船运股去年底以来大幅度回弹,亚洲最大箱运业者海皇轮船(NOL)昨日股价飙升6.2%至1.45元,达到半年来最高价位,今年来已经回涨高达28.89%,是海峡时报指数成份股当中今年来涨幅最高的。

  所谓水涨船高,经济好转的迹象预示世界贸易和船运收费率有望复苏,商船三井(Mitsui OSK)的股价昨日在东京也猛涨5.3%至321日元。香港的东方海外国际(Orient Overseas International)昨日股价扬升4.6%,中海集运(China Shipping Lines)则上涨1%。

  根据野村证券,亚洲箱运业者的股价去年11月以来已经回弹了18至64%,不过,这个势头能否持续还有待证明,不止一家证券研究机构近日先后提醒客户不要追涨亚洲海运股。

  美国1月份制造业产值取得7个月来最高增长,12月份的建筑开支则是8月份以来最高。这些消息刺激市场推测美国的经济可能已承受住欧债危机的冲击。这预料将支持亚洲产品的需求,使人开始相信箱运业者有望提高箱运收费、结束亏损局面。

  彭博社报道韩国Shinyoung证券公司一名分析员说:“由于最近美国的经济数据,市场开始期待需求可能复苏。”她说,箱运业者可能成功使箱运收费上升。

  船运公司已经开始与客户讨论亚洲-美国的船运收费,这类年度合同一般上在5月份开始。至于亚洲-欧洲航线,马士基集团(A.P.Moeller-Maersk)以及赫伯罗特船务公司(Hapag-Lloyd)也在尝试从3月1日开始,把每箱收费调高达775美元。这将是100%的涨幅,但分析员认为,最终的调高幅度料将会较小。

  不过,野村证券(Nomura)前天在一份报告中,对箱运业者能否成功提高收费持怀疑态度。它认为,展望还不是很明朗,这是因为:这个行业在2012年继续面对亏损;传统上新年前箱运需求上升已经结束,现在箱运收费正面对压力;供应压力持续,而订单继续主要来自长程船运方面;年度合同料将以较低运费达成;此外,库存重新补货的活动相信还未开始。分析员在该报告中表示,亚洲船运业者股价的回弹相信无法持续,市场的复苏目前为时尚早。

  花旗集团(Citigroup)的分析员昨日则对客户说,缺乏充足数据显示供需不平衡的情况将支持运费上升,业者的估价看来已相当高,达到1倍的股价净值比。他劝客户不要追涨亚洲海运股。


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 联合早报
Publish date: 03/02/12

需求放缓 油价高涨 新航第三季净利折损一半

在环球经济不明朗以及欧洲债务危机的影响下,新航表示第四季的预定情况正在显现疲弱迹象。新航也表示,持续居高不下的燃油价格也将继续严重影响集团的财务表现。

何丽丽 报道

  受到高燃油价格的打击,新加坡航空公司(SIA)第三季净利下挫53%至1亿3500万元,比分析师预测的1亿6250万元差。集团首三季净利则下滑59%至3亿7400万元。

  加上旅游需求放缓和竞争提高的双重打击,这已经是新航连续第五个季度面对季度盈利下滑。集团旗下三公司的营运盈利也都有所下滑或转盈为亏。

  在环球经济不明朗以及欧洲债务危机的影响下,新航表示第四季的预定情况正在显现疲弱迹象。新航也表示,持续居高不下的燃油价格也将继续严重影响集团的财务表现。

  由于乘客人数略增,集团第三季营业额微涨1%至38亿7500万元。燃油价格和前一年相比上涨了三成,使得燃油开销增33%或3亿7500万元。燃油占集团开支的40%,其价格上涨导致集团营运盈利大跌69%至1亿5700万元。

  新航本身的营运盈利同比减少64%至1亿3700万元。公司在第三季的乘客人数为440万人次,同比略增0.3%。但因为乘客容量涨幅更大,乘客运载率下滑2.5个百分点至77.2%,已经是连续第17个月同比下滑。

  在个别子公司方面,胜安航空(SilkAir)的第三季营运盈利从去年同期的4500万元减少至3200万元,新航工程的营运盈利则从3400万元下滑至2800万元,新航货运则是转盈为亏,从去年同期的4800万元营运盈利转为蒙受4000万元营运亏损。

  苏格兰皇家银行分析师安德(Andrew Orchard)表示,乘客需求将继续下滑,由于经济情况具挑战性,消费者的旅游预算已经在减少。他因此给予新航“卖出”评级。

新航去年宣布成立中长程廉价航空“Scoot”,抢攻廉价航空市场。有分析师认为,此举将有助巩固新航作为航空领域龙头老大的地位。
  在去年10月至12月期间,由于租约到期,新航交还了三架B777-300客机。截至去年年底,新航共有103架客机,平均机龄为六年五个月。

  在这期间,新航增加到一些热门地点的运能,包括大阪、广州、孟买和北京,并全面恢复日本大地震发生前到东京羽田机场的航班次数。

  与此同时,飞往科威特的航班已经被取消,往利雅得(Riyadh)和开罗(Cairo)的航班次数也减少了,接下来将减少航班次数的地点为伊斯坦布尔(Istanbul)、迪拜、休斯顿(通过莫斯科)和台北。

  胜安航空也在10月份开始飞往印度尼西亚的万隆(Bandung)及中国湖南省省会长沙,新航货运则开始新的往法兰克福和重庆的运输服务,并减少到美洲的运输服务。

  新航昨天是在闭市后公布业绩,其股价昨天闭市时略涨0.4%或4分,报11元。

Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 联合早报
Publish date: 03/02/12

腾飞印度信托 在印度买两座商业大楼

腾飞印度信托(Ascendas India Trust)在印度海德拉巴(Hyderabad)的Hitec城二号科技园区,以17亿6500万印度卢比(4480万新元)买入两座已被完全租用的商业大楼。

  买楼的经费都来自银行贷款,两座楼共占地42万7651平方英尺。信托在以后可能还会买入总面积达175万平方英尺的另外三座楼,但要取决于它们建好后的租用情况等因素。


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 联合早报
Publish date: 03/02/12

Gul Technologies: Re-rating potential hindered by lack of dividends (KE)

Gul Technologies Singapore Limited
Share price S$0.08
Issued shares (m) 931.1
Market cap (S$ m) 74.5
Free float (%) 56.7
Major shareholders Tuan Sing Holdings (43.3%)
52-week price range S$0.05-0.11

Key ratios…
Price-to-earnings: 3.7x
Price-to-NTA: 1.2x
Dividend per share / yield: Nil
Net cash/(debt) per share: $0.0

Up-to-date in 60 seconds
Background: Gul Technologies is a manufacturer of printed circuit boards. Its customers are from a wide range of industries, including automotive, computer and peripherals, consumer electronics, telecoms, healthcare and instrument and control devices. It is one of only two PCB manufacturers listed on the Singapore Exchange.

Recent development: GulTech achieved revenue growth of 21% YoY and net profit (less minority interest) growth of 19% YoY for FY11. The company has delivered consistent growth in net profit in the past three years and as a manufacturing firm, its net profit margin of 13% is deemed healthy.

Our view
Re-rating potential hindered by lack of dividends. Following the closure of its loss-making Singapore plant in 2006 and waiver of debt obligation by its major shareholder, Tuan Sing Holdings, in 2008, GulTech’s balance sheet has been in good shape since. The lack of a dividend payout has therefore been disappointing, especially since it has also consistently delivered net profit growth. We suspect this is one of the reasons the stock is trading at a discount to its PCB peers.

Valuations compelling. With further capacity expansion on the cards and PCB demand likely to remain strong, management is confident of achieving net profit growth over the next two years. The stock currently trades at a historical PER of 3.7x that is at a discount to other PCB stocks. Undemanding valuation aside, GulTech is also in a net cash position. Such attributes make it a potential acquisition target.



Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: Maybank Kim Eng Research
Publish date: 03/02/12

What has worked, what hasn’t (UBS)

Singapore Strategy
What has worked, what hasn’t
�� YTD: What has worked, what hasn’t:
Relative to our views published in early Dec, what has worked is our call that as GDP growth bottoms and EPS downgrades peak in Q112, investors should add cash to real estate developers, while trimming the extreme Overweight in telcos. On the other hand, what hasn't worked is our view that stocks with on-going execution issues (such as the China shipyards) should still underperform.

�� Key surprises in the past 6 weeks:
UBS macro team now believes growth risks and systemic (tail) risks have decreased. Economic data have surprised to the upside in the US and even in Europe, where funding markets have improved substantially thanks to the LTRO. At home, financial sector job restructuring is gathering pace but the overall job remains tight, and core inflation continues to creep upwards which means fiscal and SGD policies are unlikely to be eased meaningfully anytime soon.

�� What’s next:
We still see upside, with end-12 target unchanged at FSSTI= 3,200 or 13.7x PE which corresponds to the 15-year mean. This said, on a 13W rate of change, the index starts looking tactically overbought at 2,900. Now 33% of our coverage has RSI >70, with COSCO, YZJ, Venture and Keppel Land looking most overbought.

�� Top picks:
Our preferences remain unchanged - DBS, Keppel Corp, Olam, CapitaLand, UOL, SingTel, ST Engineering. Our least preferred stocks in the respective key sectors are COSCO, Keppel Land, Tiger Airways, UOB and Wilmar

Economics
Singapore economic comment
�� Singapore’s open economy broadly soft in Q4:
Singapore’s economy is estimated to have contracted an annualised 4.9% in Q4 2011. This equates to a worse than expected four-quarter growth rate of 3.6% in Q4 (consensus 4.3%). Much of the weakness on the quarter was manufacturing related, but the construction sector also contracted (again) and the 3.4% annualized expansion of services on the quarter represented a lacklustre recovery from two quarters of contraction.

�� Data consistent with forecast slower growth in open ASEAN economies:
The slowdown in Singapore growth is consistent with our soft growth forecasts for both Singapore and Malaysia in 2012. We continue to project 2.0% real GDP growth for Singapore after the now official estimate of 4.8% for 2011. This slower average growth projection for 2012 includes a trough in year-on-year growth in early 2012 followed by a recovery in the latter part of the year.

�� Singapore bank credit growth still strong…:
Healthy banking systems are one factor that we believe will help the ASEAN economies through the present deterioration in international funding conditions. Indeed, both of these notions are reflected in the latest Singapore bank data on domestic and Asian dollar market (offshore) business. Bank lending to both residents and non-residents remained strong in November at around 20% yoy, while Singapore dollar deposit growth was a little under 12% yoy.

�� …but signs of reduced USD availability for non-banks in East Asia:
However, the data also shows a decline in foreign currency (US dollar) deposits with Singapore banks’ Asian Currency Units (ACUs) from nonbanks outside Singapore. The ACUs mostly conduct their business in the Asian dollar market. As such, this suggests tougher US dollar availability in East Asia – consistent with recent USD currency strength against the region. In this context the 17% yoy growth in lending to non-residents by Singapore funded bank ACUs may reflect curtailed lending by Europe based banks.

�� Look for weaker SGD with read through for other ASEAN currencies:
As weaker activity leads to looser labour market conditions and lower inflation in Singapore we continue to believe the MAS will adjust monetary policy to remove the bias to appreciation in the Nominal Effective Exchange Rate band. Likewise we expect other ASEAN-5 central banks to allow softer currencies as growth weakens. Accordingly, both weaker Singapore GDP growth alongside the reduced availability of USD apparent in Singapore bank offshore deposit data point to a weaker SGD alongside other ASEAN currencies in early 2012.

Other Economic Snippets
�� CPI for December-11:
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) was up 5.5% YoY in Dec-2011 mainly led by higher cost of transport (+10.0%) and housing (+9.9%). The MAS core inflation measure which excludes cost of accommodation and private road transport was up 2.6% YoY. For the whole of 2011, CPI was up 5.2% YoY while core inflation was up 2.2% YoY.

�� Singapore Q4 GDP growth at 3.6% yoy:
Based on advance estimates from Ministry of Trade and Industry, Singapore GDP grew at 3.6% yoy in Q411, slower than 5.9% yoy in Q311. On a seasonally-adjusted QoQ annualized basis, the economy contracted by 4.9% compared to the 1.5% growth in Q3. For 2011, the estimated GDP growth is 4.8%.

�� External trade for December 2011:
Singapore non-oil domestic exports (NODX) rose by 9% YoY in December 2011, compared to the 1.4% increase in November. This was mainly due to a rise in non-electronic NODX which outweighed the decrease in electronic NODX. Non oil re-exports (NORX) however declined by 4.2% in December 2011 as the decrease in electronic NORX outweighed the rise in non-electronic NORX.

�� Manufacturing data for December 2011:
Singapore's manufacturing output grew 12.6% YoY in December 2011. Ex-biomedical, output declined 9.0%. For the whole of 2011, manufacturing output grew 7.6% compared to 2010.

�� PMI for December up 0.8pts to 49.5:
Singapore's Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) for December gained 0.8 points to 49.5 but still remained below the key 50-point mark. Electronics PMI also slipped 1.2 points and ended in contraction mode at 49.7 points.

�� EDB expects 2012 FAI to reach S$13-15bn:
Despite the gloomy global outlook for 2012, Economic Development Board (EDB) estimates Fixed Asset Investment (FAI) in Singapore to reach S$13-15bn in 2012 compared to S$13.7bn in 2011. Much of this is expected to come from the Chemicals and Electronics sector which contributed 72% to 2011 FAI.

�� Retail sales for November 2011:
Retail sales for November 2011 decreased 0.6% MoM (seasonally adjusted). Excluding motor vehicles, retail sales remained flat MoM. On a YoY basis, retail sales for November 2011 were up 6.4%.

Company/sector news
A summary of some of our recently published equity research follows:-
Banks/financials
Singapore Banks: Loan growth remains strong
�� Loans growth at 23.6% YoY for November 2011:
Loan growth in November 2011 for the combined S$ and US$ lending was up 23.6% YoY and 3.2% MoM. It was driven by US$ lending, which was up 4.3% MoM, and S$ lending, which rose 2.3%. We are surprised by the spike in US$ lending as it had contracted by 4% in October 2011, and we had expected a
continued declined as the European banks were withdrawing from the region.

�� US$ loan growth probably driven by Asian banks:
We suspect the European banks are still cautious and believe the slack has been taken up by the Asian banks. For example, at the end of October, the local banks’ US$ lending rose by an average of 69% YoY, which we believe was made possible by access to US$ deposits from their growing private banking businesses. The banks are also starting to tap the debt market for US dollars.

�� Expect growth to moderate in 2012:
With the economy expected to slow down this year, we expect loan growth in 2012 to be half that of 2011, at around 10% YoY. The consumer, small and medium enterprises (SME), and real estate sectors are likely to record much slower growth, while lending into the region should continue unabated as the local banks fill the void left by the Europeans.

�� Macro headwinds, but an earnings contraction is unlikely:
There will probably be higher provisioning and muted growth in non-interest income in 2012, but earnings are unlikely to contract as loan growth together with stable net interest margins should provide a cushion. DBS is our top pick.

Singapore Exchange: Downgrade to Neutral rating
�� Risk-averse environment continues:
A poor Q4, a lacklustre beginning to 2012, and a general risk-averse environment among investors leads us to reduce our FY12 earnings estimates for Singapore Exchange (SGX) by 17% and downgrade the stock from Buy to Neutral. SGX’s share price declined 27% over 2011. We believe a rebound will require a meaningful increase in trading volume, which we think is unlikely in the near term.

�� Recent initiatives unlikely to help:
We think the exchange is also unlikely to get any support from trading velocity despite its recent efforts at attracting high frequency traders and installing the fastest trading engine in the world. We think it is too early for these initiatives to make an impact. Also, the general bear market conditions make it challenging, in our view. We lower our FY12/FY13/FY14 EPS estimates from S$0.33/0.39/0.44 to S$0.27/0.31/0.33. We lower price target from S$8.50 to S$6.50.

�� A big discount to HKE, but we think HKE is overpriced:
SGX’s current valuations are in line with its 10-year historical average but its discount to the Hong Kong Exchange (HKE) is 24% versus the 10-year average of 14%. We think HKE is overpriced. We have a Sell rating on the stock and our price target for it suggests the valuation gap between the two will return to historical norms.

OCBC: CEO David Conner to retire
�� A good track record:
David Conner will retire as OCBC’s CEO in April this year. During his 10 years as CEO, he successfully transformed the bank from a Singapore-centric retail bank into a regional institution with a credible wealth management strategy. In 2002, the ROE was 7.4% and in the last quarter it was 12%. NPL in 2002 was 8.1% and is 0.7% now. The retirement was expected but nonetheless we think the share price may weaken as the bank’s success in the past 10 years was closely associated with Mr. Conner

�� Samuel Tsien to take over:
Mr. Conner will be succeeded by Samuel Tsien, who currently heads the bank’s Global Corporate Bank. Mr. Tsien joined the bank in 2002. The current head of consumer financial services, Ching Wei Hong, will now be appointed Chief Operating Officer. The elevation of two internal candidates seems to suggest that there will be continuity in strategy.

�� More departures:
Mr. Conner is retiring at the age of 63. The former CFO, Soon Tit Koon (60), left several months ago. We think more senior personnel will retire in the near term. Renato De Guzman, the head of its private bank, is 61.

Property
Singapore Residential: Lowest monthly sales in two years
�� December sales -63% MoM and -53% YoY, to lowest level in two years:
Hit by the unexpected introduction of another round of policy measures on 7 December, developers clocked in sales of 632 private residential units in the month, -63% MoM and -53% YoY. This marked the only month in 2011 where sales dropped below the 1,000 level, and represents the weakest monthly sales in two years, since December 2009. Developers were also cautious on the launch front as they delayed their launch plans, pushing out 937 units, at a 53% decline MoM. Only one project, UOL’s Archipelago, managed to sell more than 100 units in the month.

�� Full-year sales slightly below 2010’s record, we expect 8-10K sales in 2012:
On a full-year basis, total primary sales amounted to around 16,300 units, slightly below the record 16,500 units achieved in 2010. Going ahead into 2012, we believe that the combination of the cumulative impact of policy measures and a less favourable macro outlook would lead to lower sales for the year. We expect 8,000 to 10,000 private residential units (excluding executive condominiums) to be sold by developers in the year ahead.

�� We remain neutral on residential developers for now:
We remain neutral on residential developers for now, as investors take time to assess the impact of the recent round of measures. Our top pick in the developer space is UOL Group.

Singapore Property: Lukewarm bidding at Mount Vernon
�� Site 200m from MRT station draws top bid 20% lower than nearby site:
The tender for a private residential site closed yesterday with a top bid 20% lower than that achieved for a nearby site back in March 2011. The site, located 200m from Bartley station, attracted five bids, a lower turn-out by developers compared to the eight bids garnered back in March last year for a site next to Bartley station.

�� Consortium led by City Dev tops the tender, as it plays defensive:
A consortium led by City Dev and comprising Hong Leong and TID topped the bids, with a price of S$495 psf ppr. This consortium had also won the earlier tender next to Bartley station, and we see this as a defensive posturing – to ensure a longer sale period without the threat of a new product entering the market, and also to maintain the potential selling price for the earlier Bartley project. We expect a breakeven price of around S$850-900 psf for the Mount Vernon site, with ASPs potentially in the S$1,000-1,200 psf range, depending on the size of the units.

�� Allows consortium the luxury to mull a possible switch-up in launch plans:
As the attributes of this Mount Vernon site are weaker than that of the Bartley MRT site, the latter of which is closer to the MRT station and is surrounded by low-rise landed housing, winning this tender could potentially allow the consortium to switch up the launch plans for the Bartley site, by launching the Mount Vernon site first, thereby setting the price floor for the area.

Keppel Land: Bumper year; generous S$0.20 dividend
�� Record FY11 net profit of S$1.37bn, S$0.20 dividend declared:
Keppel Land reported bumper net profit of S$1.37bn (+30% YoY), boosted by revaluation gains and profit from the sale of Ocean Financial Centre to KREIT Asia. Excluding this, core net profit of S$266m met 92% of our FY11 estimate. Management declared S$0.20/share dividend, above market and UBS estimates. This implies a decent yield of 7.8% and we believe should be positively received.

�� Subdued home sales momentum:
Keppel sold >1400 homes in China in FY11, a decline from the 4,100 units sold in 2010 as sentiment was affected by purchase restrictions. In Singapore, 480 homes were sold (650 in 2010). Keppel still has a pipeline of 1,225 units in Singapore and 43,000 in China. In addition to launches of new phases in existing projects, FY12 would include the Nanxiang project in Shanghai (ASP: 25,000 Rmb/sqm).

�� Expanding its commercial expertise in China:
Keppel announced the acquisition of a 51% stake in a project that is developing a prime commercial site in Beijing for S$200m. Details were sketchy though the development will comprise 100k sqm GFA of commercial space when completed in 2014. With net debt of 0.1x and S$1.9bn cash balance, Keppel intends to seek more development opportunities in China and Singapore, particularly in commercial. We maintain our Neutral rating. We believe upside could come from more RNAV accretive acquisitions as capital is deployed.

AREIT: Organic growth mitigates slip in occupancy
�� Q3FY12 DPU of 3.48c above UBSe of 3.36c:
A-REIT reported Q3FY12 net property income of S$93.9m, +12% YoY and +4% QoQ. DPU of 3.48c (+6% YoY, +3% QoQ) was above UBSe of 3.36c, on the back of organic rental growth across its portfolio and partial income contribution from Corporation Place and 3 Changi Business Park Vista, acquired in early December. Portfolio occupancy of 95.9% was down from 96.4% a quarter ago, though this was attributed to lower occupancies at the newly acquired assets and assets undergoing enhancement. Excluding these, occupancy would have inched up to 96.5%.

�� Occupancy could fall, but expiring rents remain below market:
Although portfolio occupancy looks toppish and could start to dip given a weaker economic outlook for 2012, we believe the impact of this could be mitigated by the fact that A-REIT’s passing rents for space due for renewal in FY12/13 are 16-25% lower than current market rents. In addition, for the business park segment, which has the smallest buffer of 16%, pre-commitment data of upcoming supply suggests that A-REIT’s business park assets – in terms of location as well as end-user flexibility – are competitively positioned against the new supply.

�� Raise vacancy assumptions for next two years:
We tweak our forward assumptions, raising vacancy rate assumptions for the next two years (FY13 and FY14). We continue to expect that business park rents could fall by 10% this year, with asking rents in other industrial segments declining 5%.

CapitaMall Trust: Announces minor AEI at Clarke Quay
�� Q411 results below due to retained earnings and higher opex:
CapitaMall Trust (CMT) posted Q411 DPU of 2.3¢, below consensus and our 2.5¢ estimate. The shortfall was due to higher opex which increased 16.7% YoY, ahead of revenue growth at 8.5%. Importantly, CMT has commenced initiatives aimed at reining in costs. Portfolio rental reversions remained strong at +6.4% but occupancy dipped 1.2ppt to 94.8% due to AEIs at Iluma. Investors expecting the full released of distributable income would be disappointed as CMT has carried over S$5.1m (0.15¢) of non-taxable income to buffer DPU volatility in 2012.

�� Announces minor asset enhancement initiative (AEI) at Clarke Quay:
CMT announced a S$16m AEI for Clarke Quay which would involve space reconfiguration and refreshing the tenant mix at the upcoming renewal of leases at Block C. The expected ROI is a decent 13%. The AEIs would commence in Q2 and be completed by Q3. Meanwhile, AEIs at JCube, Atrium@Orchard and Iluma are on track. JCube has 90% of the NLA committed and would start trading in Q112.

�� Recalibrating our earnings estimates down:
We model in the recent equity fund raising and rollover our estimates to 2012. We also take the opportunity to recalibrate FY12-14 earnings estimates lower by 3-6%. Accordingly, this lowers our price target from S$2.06 to S$1.88.

FCT: Strong start amidst turbulent times
�� Q1 FY12 distribution per unit (DPU) in line with UBS estimate:
Frasers Centrepoint Trust (FCT) reported Q1 FY12 DPU of 2.20¢, in line with UBS’s estimate of 2.18¢. Its net property income increased 33.6% YoY on a rental uplift from Causeway Point (CWP) and maiden contributions from Bedok Point. Leasing momentum was strong with 69 leases renewed at rates 9.6% higher over preceding ones. Portfolio occupancy improved by 2.4ppt to 97.5%, with better performance from four out of five malls. Overall, it was a good set of results.

�� Earnings tracking forecast, CWP refurbishment 80% complete:
FCT’s Q1 FY12 DPU met 24% of our full-year forecast. Asset enhancement works at CWP are now 80% complete, and slated for completion by December 2012. Occupancy is likely to trend down during the next phase of works, but we expect the impact on distributions to be muted as affected tenants are on the lower yielding upper levels. On a positive note, achieved rental for the refurbished space is tracking ahead of the Manager’s S$12.20 psf projection.

�� Reiterate Buy rating:
Medium-term corporate developments include the acquisition of Changi City Point. We think the timing would likely be towards Q412 as the hotel and office components have to be completed prior to an asset sale. We estimate the retail asset could cost around S$320m. We continue to like FCT for its organic growth prospects and acquisition pipeline.

Suntec REIT: Q411 DPU above expectations
�� Q411 DPU above UBSe; occupancy stronger than we had expected:
Suntec REIT’s Q411 DPU of 2.48c (+7% YoY, -2% QoQ) came in above our expectations of 2.35c. This was on stronger than expected portfolio occupancy levels at both its retail and office properties, although income contribution from One Raffles Quay (ORQ) continued to fall on both a QoQ and YoY basis. The income support for the asset ends in Q112.

�� Surprises at both office and retail operations:
Suntec’s office portfolio occupancy reversed the fall seen in the previous quarter, climbing up to 99.2%, due to the leasing of under-rented space at Suntec City previously leased by the Infocomm Development Authority of Singapore (IDA). This helped boost NPI at Suntec City office from S$20.4m in Q311 to S$21.5m in Q411. Suntec City retail occupancy, having been on the decline since Q210, saw a slight improvement QoQ from 96.5% to 96.7%, with passing rents staying flat.

�� Investment portfolio revalued upwards by 9.3%, gearing improves to 37%:
Suntec also revalued its investment properties upwards by 9.3% to S$7.7bn. This enabled Suntec’s gearing to improve from 40% in Q311 to 37% in Q411. It has no major refinancing due until 2013. We believe these factors would take some heat off Suntec, as it undertakes the S$410m remaking of Suntec City in mid-year. As the asset enhancement will be phased, management expects the areas that are not due for enhancement works to retain high occupancies, given the size of the mall.

Mapletree Logistics Trust: Stable set of results
�� Q411 DPU of 1.7c in line with our expectations:
Mapletree Logistics Trust (MLT) reported Q411 DPU of 1.7c, which was in line with our expectations of 1.68c. Net property income grew 14% YoY and 5% QoQ, and this was attributed to a combination of new acquisitions, organic growth of around 6% YoY and partial distribution of its divestment gain from the sale of two assets in H111. It also converted a Singapore asset from a single-user asset to a multi-tenanted building, which enabled it to achieve higher asking rents.

�� Issued JPY9bn of fixed rate notes to pare down debt due in 2012:
In addition, MLT also refinanced JPY9bn worth of debt due in 2012 via the issuance of 10-year JPY fixed rate notes in Dec 2011 at an interest rate of 2.71%. This reduces the amount of 2012 debt due from cS$500m to cS$150m, and this remainder can be met by MLT’s existing credit facilities. This new debt issuance is expected to raise its average all-in cost of debt from 2.3% as of Q411 to 2.4-2.5%.

�� Occupancy dips slightly but still high; gearing remains at 41%:
Overall portfolio occupancy dipped slightly from 99% in Q311 to 98.8% in Q411, with management expecting that vacancies could edge up in Hong Kong, China, and Malaysia. Overall, however, MLT continues to see healthy demand for its logistics assets. Its gearing ratio remains unchanged QoQ at 41%, which is within management’s medium-term target range of 40-50%. Given this, should it decide to undertake any opportunistic acquisitions, we believe a fundraising may be in the cards.

Industrials
COSCO Corp: Tough industry challenges yard earnings
�� Industry outlook weak: poor demand for new bulk ships:
We believe 2012 will remain tough for shipyards focused on bulk shipbuilding. We expect weak demand for new bulk vessels, given the high level of orders already placed, most of which are scheduled for 2012 delivery. Shipbuilding prices (-15% YoY) and margins will stay under pressure in our view, due to keen competition.

�� We expect falling order book, poor ship prices and margin pressure:
Most of the ~59 bulk ships in Cosco’s order book are scheduled for 2012 delivery, leaving 2013 quite bare. Its order book is spread across seven shipyards, diminishing the scalability of its business. Cosco’s intention to diversify into new products, including containerships, to boost order books is not a positive step in our view as it prolongs the company’s learning curve issues and compromises margins. In addition, provisions for expected construction losses could recur in 2012 if Cosco accepts unprofitable contracts to provide cash flow and partly cover overheads.

�� Lower 2011/2012/2013 EPS estimates by 24%/49%/60%:
This already assumes Cosco secures ~20 bulk ship orders in 2012, mostly in H212. While we are less pessimistic on the outlook for oil & gas related contracts and expect about US$750m order wins in 2012, we believe the prices and terms are likely to be unfavourable. We lower price target from S$0.99 to S$0.58. Our price target implies 1x 2012E P/BV.

Telcos
M1 Limited: Q411 below estimate; 2012 guidance weak
�� Q411 margins impacted by higher handset costs:
M1 reported Q411 net profit of S$37.6m (-9% qoq, flat yoy), 7% below our estimate. FY2011 net profit came in at S$164.1m, 2% below our estimate. Q411 service EBITDA margin fell 2.9ppt due to higher handset costs driven by the launch of iPhone 4S in Oct as well as seasonally higher promotion costs in Q4. M1 declared final dividend of S$0.079. Including interim dividend of S$0.066, full year dividend is S$0.145 (80% payout ratio). ARPU and market share were stable.

�� Management guiding for flat 2012 earnings growth, and increased capex:
For 2012, M1 expects net profit to be flat yoy. Consensus expects 5% earnings growth. Management cited the uncertain economic outlook where roaming revenues in particular could be impacted. Roaming makes up 10- 15% of M1’s revenues. Capex is expected to be S$110-130m, higher than the S$103m incurred in 2011. Management attributed this to a planned upgrade in IT systems.

�� Fixed-line business still facing bottlenecks:
M1 had 22k fibre subscribers on NBN as of end Q411, up from 16k in Q311. Management highlighted that there remain some bottlenecks with OpenNet’s service connection rate, particularly in the corporate segment. Initial fixed-line margin will also likely be impacted by start up costs in the OpCo and RSP, and will only improve with scale as more subscribers take-up services. We lower 2012/13 earnings estimates by 5-7% and maintain our Neutral rating.

Transport
Asia Airline Sector: Cargo near an inflection point
�� Downside risks on passenger load and yield:
We forecast half of the 14 listed Asian airlines to report an earnings decline in 2012, led by lower asset utilisation and passenger yields. Overall travel demand growth could weaken from 10% in 2011 to 8% in 2012, against our projected rise in seat supply growth, from 8% in 2011 to 9% in 2012. Incoming capacity by non-Asian carriers has also become a threat to the Asian airlines’ passenger business.

�� We expect a short-lived cargo recovery in Q212:
We forecast earnings growth for the cargo airlines. There is a possibility growth could resume in Q212 due to a low base and the tech sector’s restocking. However, our 9% cargo capacity growth estimate (above the five-year average) means profits are likely to fall short of those in 2010. Our analysis suggests the Chinese cargo airlines’ consolidation is inadequate to structurally improve their profitability. Among the blue-chip airlines, we continue to prefer Cathay Pacific to Singapore Airlines.

Singapore Airlines: Unexciting earnings outlook
�� Developed markets and competition are major concerns:
SIA’s exposure to the sluggish, developed markets (contributes about 43% of its total revenue) remains a major concern. Competition from Qantas and the Middle East airlines on the Kangaroo routes and low-cost carriers in its regional market further compound its problems. We do not expect any earnings growth in the next few quarters.

�� No impact on earnings from Scoot in the near term:
We expect minimal earnings contribution from SIA’s new budget airline Scoot at the early stages. There are cannibalisation risks, but the success of Jetstar in bringing incremental returns to the Qantas group means we cannot rule out the SIA/Scoot model. Scoot may win back some market share from Jetstar and
the Chinese airlines in the leisure travel market.

�� We factor in a slower recovery into our EPS estimates:
We continue to forecast SIA’s FY12 passenger traffic and capacity will grow 2.5% and 5% YoY, respectively. However, we lower our passenger yield growth forecast by 2ppt each for FY13 and FY14. As a result, we reduce our FY12/13/14 EPS estimates from S$0.40/0.68/0.99 to S$0.29/0.40/0.81 and our FY13/14 DPS projections from S$0.40/0.55 to S$0.20/0.40. We maintain S$11.00 price target and Neutral rating. Compared to the other Asian airlines, SIA continues to have the strongest balance sheet, which is valued by investors in a volatile stock environment, despite the company having weaker growth prospects than its peers.

Consumer, Commodities and others
Q-Series®: Commodity Traders: Is growth at risk?
�� Exponential demand for scarce assets:
In our December 2010 report, Compelling Analogy®: Singapore Traders—How do they make money?, we suggested that commodity traders could de-rate following a period of ongoing upstream asset investments and increasing risk levels. In this QSeries ® report, we now partially challenge our assumption and question the traders’ ability to invest upstream. Our main questions are: 1) is upstream asset availability scarce and a threat to company growth; and 2) which
traders are most resilient to this structural change?

�� UBS proprietary model to identify value chain profitability:
To address these questions, we surveyed 20 regional commodity traders, miners, plantations and consumer companies throughout the value chain. This provided proprietary data and industry opinions that enabled us to assess the traders’ future relevance, and develop material supply-chain profitability models.

�� Growth is at risk, particularly in the hard commodities segment:
We conclude that asset availability is scarce, and a threat to company growth and valuations. Cost savings from bypassing the traders are low, but not immaterial and therefore likely to continue. In that scenario, our survey suggests that agriculture traders have the strongest competitive supplier advantage over their asset-light hard commodity peers.

�� Soft commodity traders more resilient:
Our top pick is Olam, as we view it as the most resilient to structural change. We maintain our Buy ratings on Glencore, Mitsubishi Corp., Mitsui & Co., and Noble Group. However, the traders’ competitive credit and supplier advantages make the upstream transition a time-consuming process, which may occur in the medium rather than near term.

Genting Singapore: Profit growth may remain subdued in 2012
�� A quiet end to 2011 for Singapore gaming market:
Since Q410, RWS’ VIP volumes have been on a declining trend: intense competition, lower market demand, change in business practices and greater caution on credit extension all played their part. We believe the overall Singapore VIP market in Q4 was weak- we estimate VIP volumes declined 20-25% qoq, and 10- 15% yoy, while mass revenues grew mid-single digit qoq and mid 20%’s yoy.

�� Tough to generate substantial headline EBITDA growth in 2012:
We reduce 2012e EBITDA for RWS by 12% to S$1.67bn (4% growth on 2011e). Strong headline growth for 2012 may be difficult to achieve as 1) 2011 results benefited from high VIP hold; 2) RWS’ VIP volumes were significantly lower in H2 v H1. We estimate hold-adjusted H2 annualised EBITDA was cS$1.4bn. Our revised 2012e EBITDA still implies 18% growth from this H211 run rate- i.e. we are already factoring in positive effect from western zone.

�� Medium term drivers: western zone, junket licensing, reinvestment:
We expect the western zone to open progressively, not all the beach villas will be fully operational until Q212, while Marine Life Park may not open until Q3. We expect the first junket licenses may be issued by mid-2012. GENS is also looking at acquiring land to build additional hotel capacity near RWS- it lost out on a recent tender, but may still have opportunity to partner with the winning bidder.

�� Valuation: downgrade to Neutral with PT of S$1.65:
We reduce our PT from S$2.08 to S$1.65, on lower estimates and applying 11.5 (v 12.5x) to 2012e EBITDA. We downgrade rating from Buy to Neutral.

Singapore Press: Q1 earnings down by 4.7% YoY
�� Earnings miss due to unrealised investment losses:
SPH reported net profit of S$97.5m versus our estimate of S$111m. The difference was due to lower investment income, which was a result of unrealised foreign exchange losses on investments. We expect the top line growth over the next 12 months to be challenging given the headwinds from the global economy but the company should have no difficulty in generating enough cash flows to sustain its dividend, which we estimate yields 6.5%.

�� No big surprises in its core businesses:
Revenue from its publishing business was down by 1.2% YoY but this is not a surprise given the slowing economy. We were however surprised by the 4.2%YoY increase in newsprint cost but the company is guiding for lower newsprint prices in the near term. Rental income rose by 27% YoY, courtesy of the full impact of Clementi Mall. This property now makes up 19% of the total rental income.

�� Outperformed the market by 10% in 2011:
We think the stock may have difficulty recording strong absolute performance given the challenging market environment but on a relative basis, its 6.5% yield should be appealing to investors. In 2011, the share price was down 7% but it outperformed the local market by 10%. Quasi monopoly status of its newspaper business plus annuity-like income from its properties are attractive characteristics.

�� Emerges top for another shopping mall site:
SPH bid as a jv with United Engineers (70:30) for the site. The bid price was S$328m, 20% more than the second highest offer. We estimate construction cost at around S$120m and the interest expense SPH will have to bear—assuming the project is 60% funded by loans—to be S$4.7m or 1% of net profit in FY13E. We do not believe the project will threaten our dividend forecast. However, our property analysts think the bid price looks somewhat on the high side.

Hyflux: What is ailing this stock
�� Major headwinds in 2011:
A confluence of factors that included political unrest in its Middle Eastern market, earnings disappointment, a perceived slowdown in its China market, and funding issues led to Hyflux’s share price retreating 48% in 2011. We think the correction is overdone and the potential pick-up in earnings and new orders in H212 could provide the catalysts for the share price. We reiterate our Buy rating.

�� Uptake in earnings and orders in 2012:
We expect a 72% increase in 2012 earnings as the construction of the Tuas desalination plant picks up momentum. In addition, we believe the tendering activity has picked up steam and the company is hiring more people for this process. This bodes well for potential new contracts, in our view.

�� More equity raising if it wins large projects:
Net debt-to-equity could theoretically rise to 0.9x as it undertakes the construction of the Tuas plant and this has raised concerns that this may limit its appetite for new projects in the near term. We think it becomes an issue only if it wins large projects and is unable to obtain the optimum level of project financing. A higher level of the more expensive equity naturally dilutes the returns.

�� Valuation: new price target of S$1.70:
We revise our 2011/12/13 EPS estimates from S$0.07/0.08/0.10 to S$0.05/0.09/0.10 to account for the slower start at the Tuas plant in 2011. We lower our price target from S$2.40 to S$1.70 due to the completion of the large Algerian project.

Other news stories in the media
�� City Dev acquires third site in China for 540m yuan:
City Developments (CIT) acquired a site in Chongqing, China for Rmb540m in a government land tender. The site is located next to the Huang Hua Yuan Da Qiao bridge, just minutes away by train from Chongqing's CBD. The site can be developed into a GFA of 1.17m sqft, on which it plans to build 900 residential apartments and a commercial complex. The land price works out to Rmb 4,968 per sqm per plot ratio. This was CIT's third site acquisition in China over the past 12 months.

�� Grade A office rents decline in Q4:
According to a Colliers International report, average monthly gross rents for Grade A office space in Raffles Place and New Downtown micro-market dropped 4.3% QoQ to S$10.31 psf per month. This is the first QoQ decline since the market bottom in Q4-2009. Occupancy for the quarter also eased to 88% from 90.9% in Q3-11. This is the first time occupancy has fallen to below 90% since Q305.

�� Changi 2011 traffic numbers at all time high:
On the back of rising demand for air travel in Asia, Changi Airport traffic numbers for 2011 were at an all time high. Total passengers handled hit 46.5m, up 10.7% YoY while number of aircraft movements hit 302,000, up 15% YoY. Cargo traffic was up 2.8% YoY to 1.87mt. LCCs accounted for 28.6 per cent of all flights at Changi, compared to 26.3 per cent in 2010.

�� HDB offers 3,923 new flats the first BTO launch of 2012:
In its first BTO launch in 2012, HDB launched five new projects in Choa Chu Kang, Punggol, Sengkang and Tampines with a total of 3,923 flats. It also announced plans to offer another 4,110 new flats in Mar 2012 in Bedok, Bukit Batok, Bukit Panjang, Bukit Timah, Clementi, Geylang and Toa Payoh. In total, HDB plans to offer 25,000 BTO units for 2012.

�� Keppel unit wins US$150m rig contract:
Keppel O&M's US subsidiary won a US$150m contract from Diamond Offshore to build and upgrade a semisubmersible rig to be delivered in Q3-2013. The project will involve using an existing hull to reconstruct the rig and installing advanced equipment to improve the stability of the rig in deepwater.

�� Feb-Jul 2012 COE quota released:
The COE quota released by Land Transport Authority (LTA) for the six months from Feb-Jul 2012 saw a 13% rise in Category A (<1,600cc) COEs to 1,239. This is mainly due to a spike in vehicle deregistrations for Cat A in H2-2011. On the other hand, Category C (commercial vehicles) saw the sharpest decline in COE's at 317 per month. Below table lists the new COE quota under each category.


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: UBS Investment Research
Publish date:31/01/12

Container Shipping – A doubling of rates is unlikely (UOBKH)

Container Shipping – A doubling of rates is unlikely

What’s New
• Maersk’s attempt to double AE rates. According to Bloomberg, Maersk plans to raise AE rates to US$1,512/TEU from US$737/TEU currently given the unprofitable liner business. The rate hike is reportedly to be effective from 1 March.

• Share price rally. Inspired by the news, share prices of shipping stocks surged yesterday - China COSCO Holdings (CCH) +6.1%, China Shipping Container Lines (CSCL) +15.1%, Orient Overseas International (OOIL) +8.5%, and Neptune Orient Lines (NOL) +6.1%.

Action
• Sell into strength. Despite the carrier’s proposal to double AE rates and the positive signals pointing to industry consolidation, we believe there are still some major overhangs for 2012, including: a) contractual TP rates might be lower than 2011 level, b) bunker fuel prices remain high and may head higher on tensions in Iran, and c) potential weakness in EU consumption. We believe the industry would not turn into an upcycle until there is a clear come-back of global containerised trade. It is also too early to justify the sector valuation at more than 1x 12-month forward P/B. Sector valuation of 1.0x 2012F P/B is no longer attractive and we suggest short/take profit into share price strength.

• Maintain HOLD on OOIL and SELL CSCL and NOL. OOIL’s relatively expensive valuation at 1.0x 2012F P/B curbs its further upside despite its excellent risk-reward management and operating efficiency. Our SELL calls remain CSCL and NOL with target prices of HK$1.59 and S$0.91 respectively. CSCL is trading at the lowest P/B-based valuation among Asian container carriers and is the most leveraged to a spot rate recovery, but its poor operating efficiency still makes it suffer the most pain amid the industry downcycle. NOL’s valuation at 1.0x 2012F P/B is demanding despite it having a relatively small exposure to AE trade.

Sector Catalysts
• Rates recovery and more newsflow on industry consolidation.

Assumption Changes
• None.

Essentials
• Await more official announcements. Ahead of Maersk’s proposal, Hapag-Lloyd announced a General Rate Increase (GRI) of US$750/TEU on AE trade on 26 January, while other carriers have not officially announced any similar rate hike. Feedback from talking with some carriers shows the rest are not ready to follow Hapag-Lloyd and Maersk.

• Inspired by a firm pre-Chinese New Year (CNY) market. Rates held up well in the first three weeks of January, underpinned by a seasonally strong cargo volume. Ningbo port’s January throughput (+12% yoy) showed the daily traffic improved 29% yoy. This was highly beyond market expectation, inspiring carriers to double rates.

• More prudent capacity deployment in 1H12, but still in a clear oversupply pattern. According to Alphaliner, tactic AE weekly capacity grew 2.5% yoy in 1H12 against a more moderate demand growth of 1.5%. Apparently, the oversupply has somewhat eased compared to 2011, but we would seldom see any upward surprise in slot utilisation given the ratio of only 80% during most of 2011.

• Hardly expect a prevailing rate increase. We expect demand to soften gradually again just after CNY but rates would hold up well before mid- February, underpinned by cargos that missed pre-CNY shipment. AE slot utlisation could come off below 90% again throughout March and April, and a pick-up from May alongside a coming peak season demand. In that case, we can hardly expect a rate-doubling programme in March.

Risks
• Key risks include a slower-than-expected economic recovery in the US and Europe, the EU debt crisis dragging consumption, and faster-than expected vessel delivery.


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: UOB Kay Hian Research
Publish date: 02/02/12

SingPost : Q3 in-line; cost pressures to persist (UBS)

SingPost
12-month rating Neutral Unchanged
12m price target S$1.00/US$0.79 Unchanged
Price S$0.97/US$0.77
Q3 in-line; cost pressures to persist
�� Q3FY12 in-line
SPOST reported Q3 net profit of S$41.6m (-5.2% YoY). Ex one-off’s, adjusted net profit of S$37.7m (-8% YoY) was in-line with our estimate of S$37.0m. Operating costs (+5.6% YoY) grew faster than revenue (+0.6% YoY). Roughly 60% of the cost increase was related to their logistics expansion and the rest due to inflationary pressures. We expect these costs pressures to persist for the next 2-3 quarters. Dividend of 1.25 ¢/share for Q3 was in-line with expectations.

�� Associate income from acquisitions starting to trickle in
YTD, the company has spent ~S$80m on six acquisitions the latest being the S$12.7m paid for 100% stake in Novation Solutions, a hybrid mail company in Hong Kong. Associate income of S$1.0m for the quarter, was the first meaningful contribution since the company embarked on its transformation strategy. Given cash balance of S$273m, we expect more acquisitions over the next few quarters.

�� Recent market performance positive for its financial investments
The company still holds ~S$65m in financial assets (incl. S$22m in ELNs). After the S$4.2m m-t-m ELN losses in Q2, the company reported m-t-m gain of S$1.1m in Q3 and we expect further gains on its ELN portfolio in Q4 given the recent performance of equity markets.

�� Valuation: Maintain price target of S$1.00, maintain Neutral
Our price target implies 13.7x FY13 PE. We derive our price target from a DCFbased methodology and forecast long-term valuation drivers using UBS’s VCAM tool. We assume a WACC of 6.5% and a long-term growth rate of 2%.



Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: UBS Investment Research
Publish date:30/01/12

Tiger Airways: Hitting the inflexion point (DMG)

Tiger Airways: Hitting the inflexion point
(NEUTRAL, S$0.695, TP S$0.73)
Worst is over, upgrade to NEUTRAL. The worst appears to be over for the beleaguered airline, which has in the past year been hit by flight cancellations, from a shortage of pilots to a grounding in Australia following two incidents where pilots flew too low below safety levels. Positive news flow which should provide downside protection risks for the stock in coming months include: Mandala Airlines re-launching in April2012, the likely lifting of restrictions by CASA on Tiger Australia in Jun2012 and the opening of an additional base in Australia by FYE Mar2013. We ascribe a higher P/B multiple of 2.5x (its mean historical trading range) to its FY13 BV to derive a TP of S$0.73 (from S$0.56 previously). Upgrade to NEUTRAL.

Key takeaways from analyst briefing: 1) Singapore: 3QFY12 operating losses were incurred as two aircrafts are sitting idle waiting to be deployed to Indonesia. 1) Australia: Currently operating seven A320s to operate within the restricted 32 sectors per day, leaving three A320s idle. However, it will need to get a second base in the country before it can fully utilise its entire fleet as its current base at Tullamarine Airport can only support seven. Management expects to have the second base started by end FY13. 2) Indonesia: Mandala Airlines is expected to have its Air Operator’s Certificate (AOC) re-activated by next month for operations to commence in April 2012. Seven out of the net eight A320s to be delivered in FY13 will be deployed to Indonesia. Mandala will fly both domestic and international routes with a focus on the latter. 3) The Philippines: Tiger made a S$7m provision for doubtful debts in its 3QFY12 which pertains to Philippines SEAIR. Questions were raised on the viability of continuing to lease two A319s to the airline. Management indicated in a worse scenario, the two planes would be sub-leased to another third party.

Change in forecast. We raise our losses by 62% to S$106.3m in FY12, as restricted operations in Australia and two idle yet to be deployed aircraft in Singapore eat into revenues. We expect a loss of S$3.1m in FY13 as the full lifting of restrictions in Australia will only occur in 2QFY13 and there should be lag period for ticket sales to pick up, both in Australia and its new market, Indonesia.




Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: DMG & Partners Research
Publish date: 02/02/12

Frasers Commercial Trust: Sturdy growth in DPU (OCBC)

Fair value S$0.87
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.06
versus: Current price S$0.77
12m total return forecast 22%
52-wk range (S$) 0.73 - 0.88

Frasers Commercial Trust’s (FCOT) 1QFY12 DPU of 1.51 S cents is consistent with both consensus and our estimates, forming 24.3% of consensus/our full-year DPU projection. Looking ahead, we believe FCOT performance is likely to remain robust. We understand that FCOT will be taking over the management of China Square Central upon the expiry of the master lease on 29 Mar. We believe FCOT is able to negotiate better rental terms with the underlying tenants. We also see potential for it to benefit from the low interest rate environment, as management actively seeks early refinancing for its borrowings. Maintain BUY with unchanged fair value estimate of S$0.87.

Results were in line with expectations. Frasers Commercial Trust (FCOT) reported a strong set of 1QFY12 results last evening. NPI and distributable income grew by a respective 7.4% and 21.7% YoY to S$24.6m and S$9.6m, driven chiefly by improved occupancy and rental rates at Central Park, Australia (29.7% growth in NPI). This more than offset lower income contribution from 55 Market Street (-6.0%). As a result, DPU for the quarter came in at 1.51 S cents, representing a 20.8% YoY growth after adjusting for unit consolidation done in Feb 2011. This is consistent with both consensus and our estimates, forming 24.3% of consensus/our full-year DPU projection of 6.2 S cents.

Operationally sound. Operationally, we note that FCOT performance has also been stable. The portfolio’s average occupancy rate remained high at 97.6% (98.0% in prior quarter), while the weighted average lease to expiry was still healthy at 3.4 years (3.6 years previously). Singapore’s KeyPoint continued to keep its growth momentum since its trough occupancy level of 66.2% in 2QFY09, reaching a high of 90.2% in the quarter (1.8ppt QoQ rise). In Australia, management also revealed that three new leases at Central Park were secured and were due to commence in Jan and Apr 2012. This is likely to raise the property’s occupancy rate to 99.8% from 96.5%.

Performance likely to remain robust. In the coming quarter, FCOT will be taking over the management of China Square Central upon the expiry of the master lease on 29 Mar. We believe FCOT is able to negotiate better rental terms with the underlying tenants. As at 31 Dec, its leverage remained largely unchanged at 36.8%, with an average borrowing rate of 4.2%. With management’s proactive approach to undertake early refinancing for its borrowings, there is potential for FCOT to benefit from the low interest rate environment. Maintain BUY with unchanged fair value estimate of S$0.87.


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: OCBC Investment Research
Publish date:02/02/12

CapitaRetail China Trust: Waiting for catalysts (DBSV)

CapitaRetail China Trust
Waiting for catalysts
HOLD S$1.185
Price Target : S$ 1.31
At a Glance
• Full year DPU was 2.4% higher than our forecast
• Rental reversion likely to increase at a more sustainable pace in FY12
• Possible AEI works are key re-rating catalysts
• Maintain Hold and S$1.31 TP

Comment on Results
Slightly ahead of expectations. In SGD terms, 4Q11 gross revenue and NPI grew by c.20% y-o-y to $36.4m and $22.8m respectively, partly due to contribution from Mingzhongleyuan, which was acquired in June 2011. Stripping that off, NPI growth was still a healthy 12% on the back of strong rental reversions, higher tenants sales and stronger RMB vs SGD. Consequently, distributable income came in 21% higher y-o-y at S$15.7m but a smaller 10% on a DPU basis (2.28cts) due to an enlarged unit base. Portfolio occupancy remained robust at 98.1%.

Improving occupancy, strong rental reversions. Post its AEI works in various malls, the trust continued to enjoy higher rental reversion of 11.5% y-o-y over preceding rents. Shopper footfalls at Xizhimen have also risen by c.10% since the opening of the linkway between the mall and subway station in 4Q11. While we still expect positive rental reversion for its FY12 leases (28.3% of the leases in term of revenue), rents are likely to grow at a more sustainable pace of 5- 7%. Meanwhile, we see more opportunities to optimize

Mingzhongleyuan and Wangjing NPI yields via asset enhancement works and tenant re-mixing. The trust could tweak the tenant mix at Mingzhongleyuan and at the 7-storey office tower block at Wangjing to drive footfalls in the medium term.

Gearing is healthy, no major refinancing needs in 2012. Net gearing declined from 31.4% to 28% due to revaluation gain of S$96m. Separately, the trust has also secured refinancing for 88.2% of its loans due in 2012.

Recommendation
Maintain Hold. We like CRCT’s pro-active leasing strategy and ability to drive rental renewals and occupancies. However, we are maintaining our HOLD call till more clarity and guidance are given on the possible AEI works, which are potential re-rating catalysts for the stock. The stock is currently trading at FY12 DPU of 7.5%.


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: DBS Vickers Research
Publish date:30/01/12

Fortune REIT: FY11 result review: stable growth (JPM)

Fortune REIT
Price: HK$3.89
Price Target: HK$4.88
Previous: HK$4.45
Overweight
FY11 result review: stable growth

• FY11 results slightly ahead of our estimate: Fortune REIT reported FY11 distributable income of HK$442.3 million, up 8.8% Y/Y. Full year DPU was HK$0.263, 3.1% ahead of our estimate. The growth was mainly attributable to positive rental reversion and strong increase in income contribution from Fortune City One (FCO) and Ma On Shan Plaza (MOSP) after AEI completion. Overall the portfolio showed stable growth where average portfolio passing rent went up 12.2% Y/Y to HK$32.2psf with occupancy improving to 97% as at 31 Dec 11 from 93.5% as at 30 Sept 11. Balance sheet remains healthy with gearing lowered to 18.8% due to increase in investment properties value.

• Satisfactory returns from AEI: Asset enhancement of FCO phase 1 and MSOP generated satisfactory returns on investment of 22% and 73% respectively. The remaining phases of FCO AEI are expected to be completed by end 2012. Target ROI is 15% for a total capex of HK$100m. Other than AEI, management will enhance the tenants mix to enhance rental income. For example, new retail spaces were added near food court in Fortune Metropolis (next to Hung Hom train station).

• Assets acquisition to be completed by Mar 12: The proposal to acquire the Belvedere Garden Property in Tsuen Wan and Provident Centre Property in North Point for a total consideration of HK$1,900 million was approved by unit holders. The two assets are relatively aged (Belvedere completed in 1991 and Provident completed in 1984) and management will explore AEI opportunities of these two assets to improve profitability.

• Change in estimates: We revise up our DPU estimates for FY12 and FY13 by 3.6% and 5.8% to HK$0.275 and HK$0.284 respectively in view of better-than-expected results and contribution from the two new assets.

• New Dec-12 PT of HK$4.88: We raise our PT from HK$4.45 to HK$4.88 following our higher earnings estimates for FY12 and FY13. Our PT is based on a 15% discount to our forward NPV estimate of HK$5.8. Risks to our PT include lower-than-expected rental reversions, and delays in completion of asset enhancement.

Our Dec-12 PT of HK$4.88 is based on a 15% discount to our DDM based NPV estimate, in which a discount rate of 5.2% and long-term growth rate of 0.4% (1% growth minus 0.6% dilution from REIT managers’ fee paid in units) is adopted. Risks to our PT include lower-than-expected rental reversions, and delays in completion of asset enhancement.


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: J.P. Morgan Securities
Publish date:30/01/12

SIA Q3 profit slumps 53%, outlook weak

SIA Q3 profit slumps 53%, outlook weak
04:46 AM Feb 03, 2012
SINGAPORE - Battered by its heavy exposure to the premium segment, Singapore Airlines yesterday reported its fiscal third-quarter net profit fell 53 per cent on-year, a fifth consecutive quarter of lower earnings.

The world's second-largest carrier by market value also issued a downbeat outlook for the fourth quarter, expecting continued weakness in both passenger bookings and freight and rising fuel costs.

Net profit fell to S$135.2 million in the quarter ended December from S$288.3 million a year ago, partly due to weak passenger and cargo demand from Europe.

The carrier, whose primary customers are business travellers, has been badly hit by a slowdown in corporate travel as major companies, mainly financial firms, are cutting costs.

SIA said passenger yields will remain under pressure, while cargo yields will continue to slide.

A 33-per-cent on-year increase in fuel costs had also hurt its bottom-line in the third quarter. "The persistently high jet fuel prices had adversely affected the group's performance," it said.

Revenue for the quarter rose 1 per cent to S$3.88 billion, but overall expenditure climbed at a faster pace of 12 per cent to S$3.72 billion.

The carrier flew 4.4 million passengers in the third quarter, a year-on-year decrease of 0.3 per cent.

Analysts at UOB Kay Hian said the results were in line with expectations and that passenger yield was better than expected.

Mr Brendan Sobie, an analyst at the Centre for Aviation in Singapore, also said that the fall in SIA's net profit was in line with that of other carriers. He noted that SIA's regional wing, SilkAir, had a narrower decline in its operating profit which he attributed the resilience in Asian economies.

SIA is also introducing a long-haul budget unit called Scoot this year to fend off competition from AirAsia X and Qantas Airways' Jetstar. Destinations will include China and Australia. Agencies, with additional reporting by Thomas Cho

Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts:
Publish date:

Thursday, February 2, 2012

A-share market recovery plays (DBSV)

China Financials
A-share market recovery plays
• A-share market may be the Sleeping Dragon
• Liquidity environment is improving
• Competing investment channels to offer lower yields
• We highlight Ping An (2318.HK) and Citic Securities (6030.HK) as leveraged plays for a rebound in equity markets

Year of the Dragon may be year for A-share rebound.
A-share markets have been laggards in 2010 and 2011. The A-share markets are ready to stage a rebound based on current attractive valuations against historical averages and other equity markets. We also believe investors will increasingly turn to A-shares amid improving liquidity environment in China and declining yields for competing investments instruments.

Liquidity environment should improve.
M2 looks set to rebound from its bottom-out growth of 12.7% y-o-y in November 2011 to 14.5-15% range in 2012. The expected rebound in M2 growth rate augurs well for Ashares. A-share indices typically do well when M2 growth is accelerating, subject to a 2 month lag.

Competing investment channels to offer lower yields.
Lower yields offered by competing investment channels in 2012 will make A-share investments more attractive. Credit tightening in 2011 turned off bank funding for some borrowers, resulting in very attractive yields for trust products and private loans. As credit availability improves, we expect yields of these competing investments to decline. Expected RRR cuts should also lower interbank rates, resulting in lower yields of interbank-based wealth management products.

Insurance and brokerages are key beneficiaries.
Insurance companies and brokerages will be key beneficiaries of A-share market recovery, within our HK/China financials space. Among the HK-listed insurance companies, China Life (2628.HK, HOLD) and Ping An (2318.HK, BUY) are the most geared to an equity market rebound in China., Ping An has been our top pick within the insurance space and we reiterate the BUY call. We also highlight Citic Securities (6030.HK, NR) as a leveraged play on the A-share market.

A-share market may be a sleeping Dragon
A-share markets were ultimate laggards during 2010-2011. A-share markets have lagged major indices for two consecutive years in a row. The SHSZ300 index fell 12.5% in 2010 and another 25% in 2011, faring much worse than major world indices (figure 1). Although the A-shares declines were partly attributed to profit taking after 2009’s stellar run, we believe the pull back was overdone judging from index valuations.

Forward PE is at two standard deviations below mean. PE levels of A-shares have also fallen to two standard deviations below the two-year mean. The one-year forward PE of SHCOMP Index is now just 9.2x, compared to the twoyear mean of 13.5x (figure 3). The current low valuation should limit further de-rating risk for A-shares. A-share PE valuations are also the most attractive after de-rating more than other equity indices. We have mapped SHCOMP’s oneyear forward PE relative to other indices in figure 4.

Year of the Dragon may be year for A-share rebound. We believe the case for a rebound in A-share markets is building up this year. For one, valuations are attractive against
historical averages and other equity markets. In addition, China’s overall liquidity environment is improving. We also expect declining yields for competing investments such as trust products and private loans. Thus we believe sentiment for A-shares should improve this year.

Liquidity environment should improve. We expect liquidity to A-shares to improve, premised on an expected turnaround in M2 growth rate and lower yields for competing investment channels. The m-o-m change in M2 growth is turning positive after declining since November 2009. We believe M2 growth has bottomed out at 12.7% y-o-y in November 2011, and should climb back to 14.5- 15% range in 2012. We expect 2012 new loan amount to be Rmb8tr, which will enlarge total Rmb loans by 14.6% yo- y in 2012.

M2 growth and A-share performance are positively correlated. The expected rebound in M2 growth rate bodes well for A-shares in our view, as A-share market performance has correlated with changes in money supply growth. Figure 6 maps the m-o-m change in M2 growth rate vs. A-share market performance with a 2-month lag. Ashare indices have done well when M2 growth is accelerating, and vice versa.

Competing investment channels to see lower yields. We also expect competing investment channels to offer lower returns in 2012 vs. 2011. Hence, A-share investment should be relatively more attractive. 2011’s credit tightening cycle turned off bank funding for some borrowers, resulting in a funding demand spike through non-bank financing channels. Consequently, trust products and private loans were offering very attractive yields, and siphoned funds away from A-share markets. As credit availability improves, we expect yields of these competing investments to decline. Expected RRR cuts should also lower interbank rates, resulting in lower yields of interbank-based wealth management products.

Expanding QFII quotas and government buying are also positives. We also expect more favourable policies aside from broad monetary policy. QFII quotas may expand faster as policy makers are less concerned about limiting foreign liquidity inflow. RQFII was also recently introduced to offer another source of foreign funds. We have also seen an increase in share purchasing by government entities in recent months. Huijin began to buy shares in Chinese banks in Oct 2011, while several large SOEs including Shenhua, Unicom, and Sinopec also increased stakes in their listed units.

Insurance and brokerages are key beneficiaries. Recovery in A-share market will clearly benefit insurance companies and brokerages within our HK/China financials space. We highlight China Life and Ping Anamong HK-listed insurance companies as being the most geared to an equity market rebound in China. Coincidentally, Ping An has been our top pick within the insurance space.

Citic Securities is a leveraged play on A-share market recovery. Citic Securities’ cost structure is fairly fixed, yet a rebound in A-share markets will do wonders for Citic Securities’ revenues. This is especially true for Citic Securities’ trading, private equity, and underwriting businesses. We estimate a recovering A-share market can expand Citic Securities’ core earnings by 162% CAGR by 2013 from 2011 levels. Our DDM-based fair value estimate for Citic Securities is HK$17.45, and offers 17% upside. Please refer to our equity explorer on Citic Securities for more company specific information and projections.

Impact to China insurance companies
China Life and Ping An will benefit the most. From our sensitivity analysis, as a % of net asset value (NAV), China Life and Ping An have the highest exposure to equity investments.
• Based on disclosures as at 30 June 2011, NAV gearing, defined as equity investments as percentage of net asset value at the end of an accounting period, exceeds 90% for both China Life and Ping An (Figure 11).

• Pure P&C player, PICC, has the lowest NAV gearing.

• When comparing valuation gains/losses on Available-For-Sale (AFS) assets in 1H11 and 9M11 to NAV as at end 2010, China Life and Ping An have higher equity exposure than the others, with the exception of New China Life. For both these insurers, valuation losses were at the highest during the third quarter, which coincided with SSE Composite Index’s c.15% drop over the same period.

• Given its capital deficiency, New China Life has a very low NAV base and hence, AFS valuation loss as a % of NAV was high (Figure 12).

• The NAV trend for each company during 2011 is consistent with our understanding of its sensitivity to NAV (Figure 13). PICC, a pure P&C insurer with the least exposure to equity investments, exhibited strong NAV growth, supported by exceptional underwriting earnings and a relatively small holding in equities. In comparison, NAV’s of China Life, Ping An and CPIC posted the largest declines during 3Q11 when the A-share markets plunged nearly 15%.

A-share recovery is positive for capital management. Life insurers were hardest hit during 2011 with high interest rates, which suppressed bond values and led to the fall in equity markets in China. Of the RMB74bn capital raised in 2011, more than RMB55bn was used to strengthen the capital of the life insurance business (Figure 15). A rising equity market will no doubt enable better capital management.

But, it will not help to improve the life sector’s pedestrian topline growth. Firstly, a recovering A-share market will not have a substantial impact on life insurers’ revenues in the near term. The proportion of investment products that are directly linked to equity performance is insignificant. Fee income may grow at a faster pace at a later date on a sustainable rally in the equity market.

Secondly, the life sector’s decelerating top-line growth in 2011 was the result of overhaul in bancassurance and distribution, and not due to capital constraints. We believe capital adequacy is a foundation to enable the life sector to resume high growth. Catalysts needed for future growth include product innovation, close alignment between products and sales channels, and individual companies’ distribution capabilities.

Ping An is still our preferred China insurance play. In addition to a potential recovery in the capital base supported by higher equity markets, we take comfort from the convertible bond 2012 issuance plan announced in December 2011. According to the company, the extra RMB26bn of capital will enable Ping An to maintain a solvency ratio of around 190% in the 18 months, based on investment value at the end of November 2011 and current growth projections. In our view, Ping An has sufficient capital to outperform its peers operationally going forward.

We are confident that Ping An can achieve above average growth, as its market dominance in P&C direct distribution channels is likely to be maintained in the next 1-2 years. The company’s continuous investments into technological upgrades and support systems for life agency channels will also set Ping An apart from competition. Based on our current forecast for premiums for the sector, we expect Ping An to deliver a topline growth rate that is 10ppt higher than the sector average for both P&C and life businesses.

Reiterate BUY on Ping An with TP of HK$71.10. The stock has been the best performer within our Insurance coverage, outperforming the Hang Seng Index by c.8%. We believe its recent strength reflects the fact that Ping An stands to be one of the key beneficiaries of potential credit easing in China. Nevertheless, there is still 16% upside to our sum-ofparts based target price of HK$71.10. Based on our TP estimates, Ping An offers the largest price upside potential compared to peers. Reiterate BUY on Ping An.



Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: DBS Vickers Research
Publish date:02/02/12
Warren E. Buffett(沃伦•巴菲特)
Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful
别人贪婪时我恐惧, 别人恐惧时我贪婪
投资只需学好两门课: 一,是如何给企业估值,二,是如何看待股市波动
吉姆·罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)
“错过时机”胜于“搞错对象”:不会全军覆没!”
做自己熟悉的事,等到发现大好机会才投钱下去

乔治·索罗斯(George Soros)

“犯错误并没有什么好羞耻的,只有知错不改才是耻辱。”

如果操作过量,即使对市场判断正确,仍会一败涂地。

李驰(中国巴菲特)
高估期间, 卖对, 不卖也对, 买是错的。
低估期间, 买对, 不买也是对, 卖是错的。

Tan Teng Boo


There’s no such thing as defensive stocks.Every stock can be defensive depending on what price you pay for it and what value you get,
冷眼(冯时能)投资概念
“买股票就是买公司的股份,买股份就是与陌生人合股做生意”。
合股做生意,则公司股份的业绩高于一切,而股票的价值决定于盈利。
价值是本,价格是末,故公司比股市重要百倍。
曹仁超-香港股神/港股明灯
1.有智慧,不如趁势
2.止损不止盈
成功者所以成功,是因为不怕失败!失败者所以失败,是失败后不再尝试!
曾淵滄-散户明灯
每逢灾难就是机会,而是在灾难发生时贱价买股票,然后放在一边,耐性地等灾难结束
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