Saturday, January 28, 2012

二三線股游龍戲水‧馬股有望鞏固攀升

二三線股游龍戲水‧馬股有望鞏固攀升
Created 01/28/2012 - 19:07

(吉隆坡28日訊)展望:美歐經濟雨過天晴,外加捷運計劃推動建築相關股等二三線股竄動,有助拉動馬股緩緩上揚,本週可望游走於1500至1530點水平。

美國經濟數據捎來佳音,第四季經濟成長2.8%,儘管不如預期的3%高,但卻是全年最高成長數據。儘管惠譽跟隨標普再砍意大利、西班牙評級,野村證券卻認為是歐債“終結的開始”。

野村認為,若歐洲銀行可獲得融資,市場脫綁而活絡,那將是歐債終結的開始。

野村證券預測,馬幣未來兩週可再走揚1.3%;馬幣兌美元日前揚1.5%至3.0375。隨馬幣走挺之勢,配合建築、產業活動的活絡,有助推動馬股上揚。

二三線股晉入龍年如游龍戲水,尤其政府公佈捷運計劃主要建築商名單後,帶動建築、產業股伺機而動,相關股更成為輪番炒作對象。

怡保工程(IJM,3336,主板建筑組)、華陽(HUA YANG,5062,主板產業組)、馬星集團(MAHSING,8583,主板產業組)、睦興旺工程(MUHIBAH,5703,主板建筑組)、U E M置地(UEMLAND,5148,主板產業組)等頗受市場注目。

隨著外圍暫時放晴,若藍籌股重新活躍,馬股能突破1530點即時阻力水平,有望向1560點水平挺進。



Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 星洲日報
Publish date:28/01/12

CRCT's Q4 DPU rises 10%

Business Times - 28 Jan 2012


CRCT's Q4 DPU rises 10%

Trust's 9 income-producing malls 'operating at close to full occupancy rate of 98.1%'

By KELLY TAY

(Singapore)

UNDETERRED by the uncertain global economy, China's consumers are continuing to spend money - and CapitaRetail China Trust (CRCT) is reaping the benefits.

The real-estate investment trust (Reit) posted strong results for the fourth quarter ended Dec 31, 2011, with distribution per unit (DPU) rising 10 per cent year on year to 2.28 cents.

Total DPU for 2011 rose to 8.7 cents, a 4.1 per cent increase from 2010. The distribution yield is 7.6 per cent, based on CRCT's closing price of $1.14 on Thursday.

Income available for distribution for the quarter exceeded the forecast by 9.1 per cent and stood at $15.7 million - a 21 per cent increase from the corresponding period a year ago.

For the year, income available for distribution was $57.2 million, 9.6 per cent higher than 2010's $52.2 million.

Said Tony Tan, chief executive officer of CRCT's manager CapitaRetail China Trust Management Ltd: 'We are pleased to deliver a set of strong financial results with our nine income-producing malls operating at close to full occupancy rate of 98.1 per cent.'

CRCT saw its fourth consecutive quarter of double-digit growth in net property income, which rose 17 per cent to 113.5 million yuan (S$22.5 million), while for the full year, this was up 16 per cent at 443 million yuan.

But on a comparable portfolio basis that excludes CapitaMall Minzhongleyuan, which was acquired in June last year, net property income rose 12 per cent year on year.

Gross revenue for the quarter was 181.8 million yuan, an increase of 19 per cent over Q4 2010. In Singapore dollar terms, this was 3.8 per cent higher than forecast. This was mainly due to the contribution of 13.5 million yuan from CapitaMall Minzhongleyuan.

CRCT's other malls contributed 14.8 million yuan, the increase of which was attributed to higher occupancies achieved in CapitaMall Qibao and CapitaMall Saihan, and higher rental growth in CapitaMall Xizhimen.

With China's retail sales growing at a robust rate of 17 per cent in 2011, CRCT said that it is 'confident' about its prospects in China: 'Increasing urbanisation, growing disposable income, and pro-consumption government policies will support the sustainable growth of the retail market in China.'

Mr Tan said that asset enhancement and acquisitions will be key drivers of growth in 2012, and added that a sustainable growth rate of 5 to 7 per cent over the next 20 to 30 years would be a 'reasonable forecast'.

CRCT rose 4.5 cents, or 3.9 per cent, to close at $1.185 per unit yesterday.





Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: www.businesstimes.com.sg
Publish date: 28/01/12

PLife Reit's distributable income for Q4 up 3.2% at $14.9m

Business Times - 28 Jan 2012


PLife Reit's distributable income for Q4 up 3.2% at $14.9m

(Singapore)

PARKWAY Life Real Estate Investment Trust's distributable income for Q42011 increased 3.2 per cent to $14.9 million from a year ago, as a result of yield-accretive acquisitions made in Japan, higher rent from existing properties and savings from lower financing costs.

Accordingly, distributable income per unit (DPU) for Q42011 rose to 2.47 cents from 2.38 cents in the previous year, Parkway Trust Management Ltd, the Reit's manager, said yesterday. Distribution payment is expected on Feb 29, 2012. Distributable income for FY2011 increased 9.2 per cent to $58.1 million, while DPU for the year grew to 9.60 cents from 8.79 cents.

Said Yong Yean Chau, chief executive officer of the manager: 'Amid ongoing market uncertainty, we are glad to be able to consistently deliver DPU growth to our unitholders.

'As we focused on consolidating our Japan business during the year, we remained steadfast in strengthening PLife Reit's financial position and generating organic growth across the portfolio to sustain earnings stability.'

For Q42011, PLife registered gross revenue of $22.8 million, an increase of 6.3 per cent. This was primarily due to revenue contribution from the Japan nursing home acquired in January 2011 and appreciation of the Japanese yen. Revenue growth was further driven by higher rent from the Singapore hospital properties.

For FY2011, gross revenue increased 9.6 per cent to $87.8 million, mainly due to full year revenue contribution from the properties acquired in 2010 and 2011, and higher rent from existing properties.





Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: www.businesstimes.com.sg
Publish date: 28/01/12

UFS in $1.55b RTO deal with Sinar Mas unit

Business Times - 28 Jan 2012


UFS in $1.55b RTO deal with Sinar Mas unit

UFS to refocus on coal mining after DSS takes near-93% stake in it and GEMS becomes a UFS subsidiary

By EMILYN YAP

(Singapore)

FORESTRY and pulp firm United Fiber System (UFS) has agreed to a $1.55 billion reverse takeover (RTO) by a unit of Indonesia's Sinar Mas Group.

UFS will refocus on coal mining after the deal. Its share price closed at its highest level in over five months after the announcement yesterday morning.

Under the proposed transaction, UFS will acquire from PT Dian Swastatika Sentosa (DSS) a 66.9998 per cent stake in PT Golden Energy Mines (GEMS). GEMS is a subsidiary of DSS, which is itself a Sinar Mas unit.

UFS will pay $1.55 billion to DSS by issuing 44.28 billion new ordinary shares at 3.5 cents each. DSS will end up with a 92.7663 per cent stake in UFS, and GEMS will become a UFS subsidiary.

GMR Coal Resources, another company which owns 30 per cent of GEMS, will have the opportunity to sell part or all of that stake to UFS.

GEMS is the holding company of several coal-mining firms in Indonesia and is listed on the Indonesian stock exchange. Together with its subsidiaries, it owns thermal coal resources of more than 1.93 billion tonnes and thermal coal reserves of around 849 million tonnes.

By UFS's account, the development of power plant industries in countries such as China and India has significantly increased the demand for coal, and the quality of GEMS' resources matches requirements.

'Further, the coal produced by the GEMS Group is shipped from Indonesia, which is much closer to China and India as compared to Australia, which is the largest coal exporter,' UFS said.

For the first half ended last June 30, GEMS Group's unaudited post-tax profit attributable to shareholders came to US$16.43 million, and its unaudited net tangible assets attributable to shareholders was US$31.97 million.

DSS corporate secretary Hermawan Tarjono told Bloomberg that the deal would boost GEMS' profile as a regional coal company. GEMS 'will be better known in the international investors' community and it would be easier for them to tap investors in case they need to raise funding', he said.

As for UFS, the business shift will open up another field. 'The proposed acquisition and resultant refocusing of the company on coal mining is appropriate given the growth opportunities that they offer,' it said, adding that the proposed acquisition would enhance shareholder value and strengthen the balance sheet.

UFS saw its share price soar 71 per cent to 4.8 cents after the stock market opened yesterday, but it gave up some gains to close 39 per cent higher at 3.9 cents. Trading in the counter also surged, with around 111.9 million shares changing hands.

UFS has appointed DMG & Partners Securities as its financial adviser for the proposed acquisition, and Stamford Law Corporation as its legal adviser.





Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: www.businesstimes.com.sg
Publish date: 28/01/12

PM Lee optimistic about China, social policy efforts

Business Times - 28 Jan 2012


PM Lee optimistic about China, social policy efforts

By LEE U-WEN

(Singapore)

CHINA should continue its efforts to restructure its social safety nets and properly distribute and utilise profits generated by its state-owned enterprises.

The world's second-largest economy also needs to balance investment and consumption in order to ensure future growth, said Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong.

Speaking at the annual World Economic Forum in Davos on Thursday (Friday morning, Singapore time), Mr Lee - who was taking part in a session discussing the outlook for East Asia - said that he was optimistic about the Chinese economy in the coming years.

When asked whether the stimulus packages by the Chinese government during the 2008-09 global financial crisis would have an adverse impact on its economy, Mr Lee said that the country could face some hurdles along the way but it would eventually come through.

'I can't say that there will be no bumps in the short term, but I think that in the long term, the trend will be up,' he told his high-level audience at the summit held in the Swiss Alps.

And as China was growing and urbanising very rapidly, it is in need of more facilities such as roads, hospitals, schools and homes, especially with one per cent of its population - about 30 million people - moving into cities every year, said Mr Lee.

He also noted how China would undergo a major leadership change later this year, with current Vice-President Xi Jinping set to take over from incumbent Hu Jintao as the new leader.

Mr Lee believed that there would be continuity between the existing leaders and the next generation.

'They are of a similar mould . . . very capable people, very cautious. I think there will be a collective leadership rather than any dominant single personality, which means they will act cautiously. They will need some time to find their feet,' said Mr Lee.

And as far as the future of Asia is concerned, Mr Lee said that the momentum generated by both China and India would help spur the region's growth, assuming that the European debt crisis does not worsen.

He made this point at a separate dinner hosted by Mexican President Felipe Calderon for the Group of 20 countries, also on Thursday. Singapore was one of several non-G-20 countries invited to give input for the G-20 summit meeting in Mexico last June.

Asia, said Mr Lee, is projected to grow by 6.7 per cent this year and growth in the region will contribute to global re-balancing.

He also added that Asia was not immune to developments in advanced economies because these nations account for some 60 per cent of all goods and services exported from Asia. Many of these advanced economies also count themselves among Asia's largest investors, said Mr Lee.

On a lighter note, Mr Lee was also quizzed on whether he thought any of his four children would one day enter politics. He said that they would have to make up their own minds about it, but added that the odds were not on them doing so.

Mr Lee was then asked what it was like following in the footsteps of his father, Singapore's founding prime minister Lee Kuan Yew, and to have that kind of legacy.

'I don't know, I have never not had it,' he said to much laughter. 'It's tough enough but you have to live with it. He had expectations . . . but he left me to do my own thing, he didn't push me into this, and neither would it have worked had he done so. I had to make up my mind whether I wanted to go this way.'

During his two-day visit which ended yesterday (Friday), Mr Lee had a meeting with International Monetary Fund managing director Christine Lagarde. The prime minister also had lunch with several business leaders with major investments in Singapore.



Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: www.businesstimes.com.sg
Publish date: 28/01/12

Fearful, but equally worried of being left behind (CIMB)

Fearful, but equally worried of being left behind


During our recent marketing, our cautious view matched that of Asian and US investors, though they were equally worried about being left behind in rallies. January was a case in point. Stock picks were the focus. Business models, earnings/NAV resilience hogged discussions.

Being purely defensive was not hot. Hiding in Telcos already worked in 2011, and the past year’s best performer rarely repeats, so we were told. The buy side also believed that wild swings month to month could be the norm.

What Happened
We met more than 50 investors in Asia and the US. We advocated Overweight positions on defensive sectors still. Although bearish, we wanted to be invested in specific names that have quality at reasonable prices, such as CDL-HT, DBS, Genting HK, GLP, Olam, SCI, and Wilmar. We had the most pushback from buying telcos and pure defensives. Instead, investors were sieving for non-index consumer stocks and depressed office stocks; and asking if property curbs would channel excess liquidity to the stock market (SGX) or to gaming (GENS) as Singapore’s liquidity plays.

What We Think
We like banks relative to the other cyclicals. We are negative on Property and prefer REITs. Most agreed. We sensed growing interest in REITs in a prolonged low-interestrate environment. There was agreement on DBS as our top banking pick, GLP among property picks and CDL-HT for REITs. A negative view on Transport was easy to sell, though some asked if SIA’s yields are sustainable and if that makes it sufficiently defensive. On commodities, there was common unease on the opaque-ness of Olam’s earnings. For Capital Goods, investors were incrementally more positive, pointing to geopolitical tensions that could keep oil prices high.

What You Should Do
Our end-CY12 FSSTI target of 2,680 (1.3x P/BV) and Underweight position are unchanged.


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: CIMB-Research,
Publish date: 27/01/12

Mapletree Industrial Trust: On track (CIMB)

Mapletree Industrial Trust
Current S$1.06
Target S$1.24

On track
A dip in Business Park reversionary rents marred an otherwise stellar quarter after itsAugust acquisitions and equity fund-raising. We anticipate continued strength in the other segments which shouldoffsetthe stress in Business Parksgoing forward.

3Q/9M12 DPU meets consensus and our expectations, at 27%/ 78% of our estimates. We keep our estimates and DDM-based target price (disc rate: 8.6%). Maintain Outperform.

Biz Park reversions fell
3Q DPU shrank 9.2% yoy due to new units issued in Aug 11. Qoq growth was a positive 5.4%, led by improved portfolio occupancy (95.1%; +0.6% pt) and positive rental reversions for Flatted Factories (+26.8%), Stack-Up/Ramp-Up Buildings (27.5%) and Warehouses (31.5%) over the last renewal period, typically three years ago. In contrast, reversions in Business Parks fell 9.6%. New leases contracted here averaged S$3.92, 5.1% below renewal rates, hinting at more weakness to come.

Lengthening WALE
As at Dec 11, only 3.2% of its portfolio (by gross revenue) remained due for the rest of FY12. In future renewals, management intends to encourage tenants to take up longer leases of more than three years, to lengthen its portfolio weighted average lease to expiry (WALE) of 2.4 years (vs. REIT peers’ five years or so).

Two AEI projects to take off
Management announced AEI plans for Toa Payoh North Cluster 1 and Woodlands Central Cluster. While costs have not been finalised, capex should be S$30m-40m for each at a yield-on-cost of 9%. When completed, an additional 200,000sf (1% of portfolio GFA) will be created. Completion is anticipated by 2H12 with no major disruptions to revenue contributions. The AEI was catalysed by the expansion plans of existing tenants.



Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: CIMB-Research,
 Publish date:27/01/12

霸陵资产管理:龙年看好中国A股

(香港综合电)霸陵资产管理公司(BARINGS)昨天对外表示,看好龙年中国A股的表现。

  霸陵表示,相信中国的通胀及政策风险已开始舒缓,中国政府促进增长的政策亦会令中小型企业(当中以中型企业尤甚)于今年能够重新获得较低利息的贷款。

  倘若通胀压力如其所料不断舒缓以及投资者信心回归中国市场,盈利增长将再度成为中国股市的主要推动因素。

  在此环境下,霸陵将会继续投资于增长前景良好、资产负债表强劲以及能受惠于消费者及基建开支不断上升的公司,霸陵预期这项投资承诺将会为其中国股票投资组合的投资者带来硕果。

  霸菱资产管理香港中国股票主管邓鸿文认为,中国股市的整体前景仍然乐观。

  尽管于秋季期间中国股市小幅回升,但香港股市及中国A股的估值仍处于历史低位,认为这已为投资者提供一个有吸引的机会,于较低的切入点,参与中国持续多年的增长。



Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 联合早报
Publish date:28/01/12

联合纤维系统 与金能源矿业换股

联合纤维系统股价涨幅昨天达到八年多来新高,成为全场交易最活跃的股票,交易量达1亿1192万股。

何丽丽 报道

  从事建筑与木柴生产的本地挂牌公司联合纤维系统(United Fiber System)昨天宣布已达成协议,同印度尼西亚富豪黄奕聪间接掌控的煤炭生产公司金能源矿业公司(Golden Energy Mines)进行换股,以将业务着重在煤矿业,使前者的股价涨幅昨天达到八年多来新高,成为全场交易最活跃的股票。

  交易完成后,金能源矿业公司将成为联合纤维系统的子公司,而后者也表示将尽量维持在新加坡交易所的上市地位。

  联合纤维系统是在昨天开市前在新交所网站上发布这项消息。该股昨天一开市就飙涨71%至4.8分,为全天的最高点,这也是自2003年5月来的最大涨幅。在这之前,联合纤维系统的股价一年内下跌了49%。

  联合纤维系统昨天最后收报3.9分,涨幅39%,交易量达到1亿1192万股。

  联合纤维系统发表文告,公司同意发售相等于93%公司股权的新股,以交换印度尼西亚的DSS公司(Dian Swastatika Sentosa)所持有的金能源矿业公司67%股权。这项反向收购交易的价值为15亿新元。

  金能源矿业公司是印度尼西亚数个煤矿公司的控股公司。根据其网站,它拥有八项煤矿开采权,所含盖的范围包括印度尼西亚加里曼丹南部与中部及苏门答腊,占地3万6000公顷。

金光集团老板
是印尼富豪黄奕聪
  该公司是印度尼西亚金光集团(Sinar Mas)通过上市公司DSS公司所掌控的公司,金光集团的老板是印度尼西亚富豪黄奕聪,他的儿子是享有“股市金手指”之誉的黄鸿年。

  联合纤维系统在文告中表示,董事会认为这项交易将助公司重新着重于煤矿业,而基于计划所提供的增长机会,这项交易是相当妥当的。董事会也认为,这项交易将增强股东价值并强化公司的资产负债表。

  文告中也指出,持金能源矿业公司30%股权的印度公司GMR基础设施,也将有机会将部分或全数股权脱售给联合纤维系统。

  联合纤维系统已经就上述交易委任德意志摩根建富证券(DMG & Partners Securities)为财务顾问。

  这项换股计划被视为是金能源矿业在本地“走后门上市”(backdoor listing)。

  DSS公司秘书说,金能源矿业公司成为联合纤维系统子公司后,在国际投资者社群里的知名度将有所提升,有助提高公司未来筹集资金的能力。

  华侨银行投资研究公司的商品分析师指出,许多公司选择在本地上市是为了接触资本市场,而若市场对于这些公司所从事的行业感兴趣,它们也将更有能力筹集资金以扩大资产。分析师指出,印度尼西亚的煤矿资产雄厚,为煤炭生产公司带来许多收购私人煤矿的良好机会。

  截至昨天,金能源矿业公司的市场价值为约17亿美元,而联合纤维系统的市场价值则约为9700万新元。

Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 联合早报
Publish date:28/01/12

印尼最大船行BLT 宣布停止支付债务

印尼最大船行Berlian Laju Tanker(简称BLT)宣布停止支付债务,此举将影响到其本财年期满的大约4亿1800万美元债务(5亿2668万新元)偿还进程,引起评级机构惠誉(Fitch)表示可能给予它“违约”的评级。

  BLT的文告说,作为其中一家子公司的一笔贷款担保者,它已经对这笔贷款宣告违约,而它的某些其他子公司也无法按期支付某些贷款。

  它正在寻求咨询公司来评估停止偿还这笔贷款和子公司无法按期还债,对它的财务状况和地位所带来的冲击程度。由于有关评估还在进行中,它决定暂停偿还所有的银行贷款及债券,租赁船只的款项,以及履行其他子公司的相似义务,以确保集团能检讨其财务状况和安排。

  BLT并没有透露贷款违约的子公司名字。它截至去年9月底的债务总额约为19亿美元(24亿新元)。

  它将公司的业务和财务现状归咎于全球经济放缓、船舶燃油费和营运成本上升等因素。

  BLT最高主管威迪哈加(Widihardja Tanudjaja)说:“尽管我们预期船运费将在未来的日子复苏,我们必须采取措施来加强公司资本结构的效率,增大本身的工作资本,以集中精力确保及时付款给供应商,以及优质的营运和对客户的服务不至于受到干扰。”

  该公司也说,它依然致力于继续它的日常业务和运作,因此将优先处理履行同供应商和贸易信贷者的义务。

  除了委任FTI Consulting来作出关于财务状况和地位受到停止还债事项冲击的评估外,它也已经开始同银行和借贷机构磋商,探讨重组贷款的事宜,希望能与各方达致一份可增加公司价值,又能让所有相关方接受并觉得公平的方案。

它已经要求新加坡交易所和印度尼西亚股票交易所继续暂停其股票交易,直到它的财务状况获得全面评估并取得相关咨询,然后向市场作出完整披露为止。
  惠誉在BLT宣布停止支付债务后,随即将它的评级列为“CCC”负面观察名单内。如果债务果真没有在期满前偿还,惠誉将再把它的评级降至“RD”,显示公司违约。

  由BLT担保,BLT金融发行的2014年期满无抵押(unsecured)票据也遭惠誉列为负面评级观察中。

  BLT的2014年期满债券经前日跌至22美分和23美分的谷底水平后,昨日上升到大约26美分和30美分之间。

  BLT自本周一起就暂停交易,上周五收报2.7分。

Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 联合早报
Publish date:28/01/12

嘉茂中国商用产业信托 第四季可派发收入年比增21%

嘉茂中国商用产业信托(CapitaRetail China Trust,CRCT)第四季可派发收入年比跃增21%至1570万元;每单位可派发收入为2.28分,上涨10%。
  这带动2011年全年的可派发收入年比上涨10%至5723万元;每单位可派发收入为8.70分,上涨4%。

  以嘉茂中国商用产业信托截至本月26日的每股1.14元闭市价计算,收益率为7.6%。

  该信托主席廖青山说:“全球经济仍然不明朗,不过我们对中国的前景保持乐观……我们相信它仍然是能够吸引零售商的市场。”

  国际货币基金预测今年中国的经济将增长8.2%,远远超越其他发达国家。

  嘉茂中国商用产业信托总裁陈智雄说指出,信托旗下的九家购物商场租用率高达98%。去年第四季,该信托的租户营业收入和净房地产收入也连续第四个季度出现双位数增长,分别达到27%和17%(以人民币计算)。

  这带动信托的全年净房地产收入增长16%,这包括去年6月新收购的嘉茂新民众乐园的收入。

  不过,北京西直门和望京的凯德MALL仍然是最大的收入来源,全年的净房地产收入增长大约12%。

  至于芜湖凯德广场、凯德七宝购物广场和赛罕凯德MALL也分别为信托带来38%、61%和92%的净房地产增长。

  陈智雄透露,公司正研究嘉茂新民众乐园的资产提升潜能,以及在寻找其他的商场收购机会。

由于信托的负债对资产比率只有28%,因此他也排除了在未来一年内进行重大再融资计划的可能性

Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 联合早报
Publish date:28/01/12

美罗控股 (Metro Holdings) 目标价:0.86元 评级:买入

创办于1957年的美罗是本地零售界家喻户晓的品牌,该集团在1990年代看好中国市场开放所带来的机会,便在当时就将业务分散至中国房地产市场上。

  作为最先进军中国的房地产发展商,公司在当地的资产组合包括在一线城市上海、北京、广州的优质商业房地产,以及在二、三线城市的房地产与合资项目。主要产业包括在北京的美罗城和EC Mall、上海的美罗城和美罗大厦、以及在广州的GIE大厦。

  公司至今的所有房地产项目都取得盈利,过去所脱售的项目也取得超过账面价值5%到25%的盈利。

  美罗目前拥有的净现金额为每股36分。管理层的经营手法保守,因此在投资方面不会借贷太多,而是利用现有资本及收益投资于新项目。

  公司目前正在就以12.5亿元人民币脱售北京美罗城50%股权的计划进行协商,这个价格比项目最新估值高出50%。若交易落实,公司将取得8740万新元税前盈利,每股净资产值预计将提高9分。

  德意志摩根建富证券的目标价为0.86元,是重估净资产值(RNAV)的30%折价。

(德意志摩根建富证券)



Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 联合早报
Publish date:28/01/12

龙年首周收于2900点之上 海指成功“龙抬头”

本地股市昨日结束龙年第一周的交易,海峡时报指数连续上涨三天,成功“龙抬头”收于2900点以上,突破一个重要心理阻力位,为龙年带来一个好的开始。

  美国前晚隔夜股市因银行股下跌,以及新住宅销售量出乎市场意料地走低,导致道琼斯工商指数以微跌0.18%报收,但所幸这并没有对亚太股市造成影响。

  投资者普遍对下周的欧盟会议有所期待,并相信希腊债务协商会有成功结论,同时也看好美国昨日隔夜公布的第四季度国内生产总值数据,带动本地和亚太股市普遍走高。

  海指在2900点上下波动一天后,最终以几乎是全天最高点的2916.26报收,上涨21.83或0.75%,创下自去年8月初以来的最高水平。区域股市中仅东京和吉隆坡微跌,其余也都上涨。

  上升股以约5对2的比例领先下跌股,成交量为15亿6000万股,总值超过13亿元。

  海指成份股中有23只上升,3只下跌,4只持平。

  以星展、华侨和大华为主的银行股,以及在农历新年后连续上涨的星狮集团,是海指上涨的主要推动力。吉宝企业在净利再创记录后上涨9分,也为海指的走高做出贡献。

  华侨银行投资研究看好吉宝企业的未来,认为岸外海事业务将持续有利可图,因此维持吉宝的买入评级,并将目标价从原先的12.02元上调至12.27元。

就海指未来走势而言,大华继显研究相信,海指在突破2910的阻力线后,有望继续上扬至2960点左右。新加坡证券投资者协会分析师认为海指短期里看涨,但中期更可能横摆。华侨银行投资研究则提醒说,海指短期里有可能会回跌至约2860点的支撑点附近。
  活跃股中,联合纤维系统猛涨39.3%或1.1分,收于3.9分。这主要是因为公司宣布说正在进行一项价值15亿元的反向收购,通过换股的方法以自己92.8%的经扩大股本,换取一家印尼煤炭公司约67%的股权。

Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 联合早报
Publish date:28/01/12

First REIT: 4Q11 results within expectations (OCBC)

First REIT: 4Q11 results within expectations
First REIT (FREIT) reported its 4Q11 results which were within our expectations (excluding any exceptional distribution). Gross revenue surged 82.0% YoY to S$13.9m while distributable amount to unitholders jumped 122.9% to S$12.1m. This was partly due to a special distribution of S$2.2m arising from FREIT’s recent divestment of the Adam Road property. For FY11, gross revenue increased 78.4% to S$54.0m and was just 0.2% higher than our full-year projection.

Distributable income to unitholders rose 105.8% to S$43.9m, in line with our forecast of S$41.9m if we exclude the special S$2.2m distribution. DPU for FY11 was 7.01 S cents, versus 6.63 S cents in FY10 due to additional distributions from the asset divestment as highlighted earlier and a 5-for-4 rights issue in Dec 2010. This translates into an attractive yield of 9.1%. We opine that FREIT has showcased its resilience amid the current volatile economic environment, underpinned by healthy industry fundamentals and its stable master lease structure. We will provide more updates after the analyst briefing.

Meanwhile, we maintain our BUY rating but place our S$0.84 fair value estimate under review.


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: OCBC Investment Research
Publish date:27/01/12

Keppel Corporation: FY11 results in line with expectations (OCBC)

Keppel Corporation: FY11 results in line with expectations
●Few surprises in results
● Offshore marine sees strong
contributions
● Final dividend of S$0.26/share

FY11 results in line with expectations.
Keppel Corporation (KEP) reported a 10.3% increase in revenue to S$10.1b and a 21.8% rise in net profit to S$1.84b in FY11. Excluding exceptional items comprising mainly of fair value gains on investment properties, core net profit rose 14.1% to S$1.49b, which was 1.4% and 4.1% above ours and the street’s expectations, respectively (Bloomberg consensus: S$1.43b).

Offshore marine still the main driver of earnings.
The offshore marine division remained the largest contributor to net profit with a 71% share. Property accounted for 20%, infrastructure at 6% and investments at 3%. In infrastructure, the group made provisions for its projects in Qatar; we understand that it is still in the process of finalizing the schedule of certain work with customers.

Cautiously optimistic on the offshore market.
KEP’s remaining jack-up options have lapsed, which is not surprising as customers preferred to stay on the sidelines with heightened concerns about the Eurozone and other economies in the later part of last year. Moreover, the options have higher prices tied to them, and it is likely that only customers with ready charters and adequate financing would want to exercise the options during periods of uncertainty. Still, management remains upbeat about the offshore market, as major oil companies have announced increased budgets for exploration and production, while day rates have also been strengthening for certain rigs.

Maintain BUY.
After securing S$9.8b worth of new orders in FY11, our new order target for FY12 is S$5b, excluding Petrobras’ orders. In Brazil, KEP is also moving to build offshore support vessels in anticipation of demand. In line with our expectations, a final dividend of S$0.26/share has been recommended besides an earlier interim dividend of S$0.17/share that has been paid. After updating the market value of the group’s
listed entities, as well as the change in Keppel Land’s fair value by our property analyst, our fair value estimate for KEP rises from S$12.02 to S$12.27. Maintain


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: OCBC Investment Research
Publish date: 27/01/12

Freighter Oversupply Weighs on Shipowners and Banks

Freighter Oversupply Weighs on Shipowners and Banks

Published: Thursday, 26 Jan 2012

The skyscrapers and immaculate beaches of this seaport look out on one of the world’s largest parking lots: mile after mile of empty cargo ships, as far as the eye can see.

Similar fleets bob at anchor, with empty cargo holds, off the coasts of southeast Malaysia and Hong Kong. And dozens of newly built ships float empty near the giant shipyards of South Korea and China, their owners from all over the world reluctant to accept delivery during one of the worst markets ever for the global shipping industry.

As recently as six weeks ago, large freighters that can carry bulk commodities like iron ore or grain were fetching charter rates of $15,000 a day. Now, brokers and owners say, the going rate is $6,000 a day. If any customers can even be found.

Although the fault lies partly with doldrums in the global economy, the bigger factor is a glut of new freighters. The oversupply is putting financial pressure on the shipowners that bought them and the already struggling European banks that financed many of the purchases.

Shipping industry leaders hold little hope of a quick recovery.

“If the tunnel is 2012, I can’t see any light at the end of it,” said Tim Huxley, the chief executive of Wah Kwong Maritime Transport Holdings, a Hong Kong-based shipping line with 29 bulk freighters and tankers.

Back during the global commodity boom, which continued through the spring of 2008, the world’s shipowners could hardly place orders for freighters fast enough. But because of the long lead times in shipbuilding, those vessels only now are being delivered by the hundreds — into a very different, much less robust international economy than when they were ordered.

For the shipping industry, the glut means not only lower charter fares, but also steep declines in the value of their vessels. The bigger losers, though, could eventually be some big European banks, many of which are already struggling with big losses on their holdings of government bonds from Greece, Italy and other heavily indebted European nations.

Basil Karatzas, the chief executive of Karatzas Marine Advisors, a ship brokerage and finance advisory firm in Manhattan, estimated that European banks hold about $500 billion in shipping loans on their books and face nearly $100 billion in losses to restructure them.

Just as American banks have grappled with huge loan losses for houses that are worth less than their mortgages, European banks face tens of billions of dollars in potential losses on shipping loans.

The banks’ “biggest concern is what is the write-off, and how do you treat it from an accounting point of view,” Mr. Karatzas said. “They do not know how to deal with these losses.”

Banks in Europe have long been the world leaders in ship financing because many of the biggest fleet owners are based there. But many have abruptly stopped lending money to shipowners. Some, as they scramble to muster capital to meet tougher reserve requirements demanded by European banking regulators, have even tried to raise money by asking some shipowners to prepay loans in exchange for a discount.

There is a scant secondary market for ship loans right now, except at deep discounts that banks are loath to agree to, according to shipping finance experts. Even for loans on which the vessel is still worth more than the mortgage, these experts say, the discount demanded is about 20 percent.

Commerzbank in Germany and the Lloyds Banking Group in Britain are among European institutions that have publicly said they were reducing their exposure to shipping loans.

Société Générale in France also has been looking for ways to reduce its holdings of shipping loans and instead focus on providing financial advice to shipping companies, according to two people with knowledge of the bank’s moves.

The bank declined to provide a comment on its shipping exposure ahead of the release of its annual financial report next month.

Shipowners, meantime, are nervously monitoring an industry benchmark, the Baltic Dry Index of bulk freighter charter rates, which has lost more than half its value since the start of the year. The index is now at its lowest level since January 2009, during the depths of the economic downturn after the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers.

And as charter rates plummet, so do prices of the vessels themselves. A large tanker that sold for $137 million in early 2008, the Samho Dream, was repossessed by bankers late last year and sold last week in Hong Kong for just $28.3 million.

The world’s tonnage of large freighters is climbing by more than 10 percent a year, with 1,650 large freighters for bulk commodities expected to emerge from shipyards this year alone.

As long as the shipped tonnage of world trade is creeping up at an annual rate of only 2 to 3 percent a year, the oversupply can only grow more burdensome for the seaborne freight industry.

Making the glut especially acute right now is the fact that shipyards have delivered a large number of vessels to owners since the beginning of the year. Just as some car buyers wait to buy a car at the start of a model year — because it will hold its resale value longer — shipowners have traditionally taken delivery of as many vessels as possible in January, so as to have a full calendar year’s use before a vessel celebrates its first birthday, said Natasha Boyden, an analyst at Cantor Fitzgerald in New York.

Buyers who might be tempted to refuse delivery of vessels can lose their deposits, which are typically up to 40 percent of the contract price of the ship. But it is getting harder to borrow money from struggling banks to pay for the remaining 60 percent — particularly with resale values now much lower than the prices at which contracts were signed four or five years ago.

Freight rates are now close to operating costs for many bulk freighters, leaving almost nothing to pay the mortgage, so more old vessels may be scrapped in the coming years, which would eventually reduce oversupply.

Worldwide lending for ships totaled about $100 billion last year, down only slightly from previous years, according to industry estimates. But as much as three-quarters of last year’s loans were to refinance or restructure previous loans that the borrowers were struggling to repay, shipping finance executives said.

One big question is whether the plunge in freight rates might also signal further trouble in the global economy. World oil demand has been fairly flat lately because of weak economic growth, so there has been limited need for more tankers to haul oil.

The biggest market for bulk carriers lies in carrying iron ore to China’s voracious steel mills. But with a real estate slowdown in China undermining demand for steel, the annual growth rate of Chinese iron ore imports has abruptly slowed since October.

Harley Seyedin, the president of the American Chamber of Commerce in South China, said that many construction projects had slowed to a crawl, with barely enough work being done for developers to persuade their bankers to continue financing projects already under way.

Yet the growing glut of vessels, combined with seasonal factors, could skew the reliability of shipping as a global economic indicator. Bad weather lately off Australia and Brazil, the two countries where bulk freighters are most likely to take on iron ore and other cargo, has made companies leery of chartering vessels and risk waiting for days for ports to reopen after storms.

Further confusing the picture is that the cost to ship a container from China to the United States or Europe actually jumped in the first two weeks of this year, as factories rushed to fill orders before shutting down for up to a month for the Chinese New Year, which began Monday. But that could be a misleading metric, because container rates temporarily surge every year for the last sailings before the Chinese New Year.

Even if world trade does not slow in the coming months, the shipping industry still has a long way to go before cargo demand can possibly catch up to capacity. Meantime, bulk freighters, container ships, tankers and refrigerator ships by the hundreds may continue to bob idly in the waves here, their hulls showing wide bands of paint that would be submerged if the vessels were fully laden.

This story originally appeared in The New York Times

Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: CNBC
Publish date:26/01/12

OCBC Viewpoint: FOMC implications for risk and Asia

Highlights:


Market players appear to have read the FOMC extension of no rate hikes till at least late 2014 instead of mid-2013 previously, as the Fed sanctioning further risk-taking. Fed chairman Bernanke also indicated that the option of QE3 is still “on the table”. However, do note the FOMC actually downgraded its 2012 growth forecast from 2.5-2.9% previously in Nov to 2.2-2.7%, and 2013 growth to 2.8-3.2% (previously 3.0-3.5%), albeit the 2012 unemployment forecasts were also lowered from 8.5-8.7% to 8.2-8.5%. Despite the Fed's commitment to a longer-run PCE inflation target of 2%, the PCE inflation forecasts suggest that FOMC members do not expect inflation to rear its head in the next 3 years.

The more dovish composition of the FOMC clearly paves the way for more accommodation rather than less, despite the higher hurdle with the improving US economy. It was also a 9-1 FOMC vote, with Lacker as the sole dissenter because he “preferred to omit the description of the time period”. Notably, the Fed members' assessment of the appropriate timing for policy firming is fairly dispersed - 3 of the 17 members believe the Fed should hike rates in 2012, with another 3 in 2013, 5 in 2014 (ranging from 0.25% to 2.75%), 4 in 2015 and 2 in 2016. A late 2014 rate hike would mark a record of nearly 6 years at rock-bottom interest rates for the US! On balance, we read the latest FOMC meeting as risk-supportive, but the potential spanner could be a Greek default should the PSI negotiations fail.

US Treasury bonds look invincible for now, underpinned by an accommodative Fed delaying the day of reckoning, the ongoing Operation Twist and US' relative outperformance over the Eurozone, But with the 5-year UST yield already touching a record 0.76%, there appears to be limited upside from here in our opinion. Tomorrow, we get the US’ Q4 GDP growth data and a re-acceleration to around 3% in Q4 2011 is expected after a subpar performance in the first three quarter of last year. But the macro upside surprises are likely to gradually fade in H1 this year as GDP growth moderates to around the 2+% handle.

Asian central banks are currently standing at crossroads: BI has paused at 6% after two 25bp cuts, BOT has cut twice by 25bps each to 3%, BSP has cut once by 25bps to 4.25%, while BOK, BNM and RBNZ are on hold. The growth-inflation mix remains uncomfortably tilted towards downside growth risks but with a still sticky inflation picture, especially for core inflation. MAS for instance may be reluctant to ease the SGD NEER monetary policy further given inflation is likely to remain elevated in the near-term. China’s PBOC has cut reserve ratio requirement but not touched the interest rate yet. Recent fund inflows into Asian equity and bond markets suggest that investors are trying to call the bottom in Q1 2012, but we look for further confirmation from the incoming economic data.

Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: OCBC
Publish date: 27/01/12

China: Positioning for More Upside (Citi)

China: Positioning for More Upside
Population 2012e (mn) 1353
GDP/capita 2012e (US$) 6233
Sov. Rating (S&P) AALocal
Index Shanghai Compostie
MSCI Free Float (US$, bn) 577
Weight in MSCI GEMs 17.9%
# of Stocks (MSCI) 148
Forward P/E 9.3
Trailing P/B 1.76
ROE 17.1%
Div Yield 3.2%
Largest Sectors (by weight)
Financials (36%)
Energy (19%)
Telecoms (13%)

Largest Stock China Mobile

Chinese equity markets have bottomed out as liquidity conditions passed their trough. Selective easing has continued since October, including tax cuts for small businesses and the service sector, credit easing, and recent liquidity injections through open market operations. M1 growth showed signs of stabilization in December. Chinese leaders have noted that lifting investors’ confidence is one of their top priorities in 2012. The liquidity outlook should improve further in the nearterm, supporting the market rebound. The Chinese economy will likely have a weak start to 2012 before some catch-up in 2H, largely due to the nature of reactive policy; GDP growth may drop below 8% in 1Q. Weakening external demand and falling property sector investment are the main drags. Assuming policy-makers are still keen to maintain growth above 8% for 2012, policy easing should gear up further towards the end of 1Q.

Bad news in the economy may turn out to be good news for the equity market as it could trigger further easing. There are a few key variables for equity investors to watch closely: rising unemployment after the Chinese New Year as some 4m people could lose jobs in the export sector alone, falling property sector investment, which may slow to below 10% yoy in 1Q, and collapsing power consumption which, according to some experts, could slow to 5% growth in 1Q and 8.5% for the year.

The equity markets are unlikely to retest their recent lows. This should be confirmed as long as the GDP growth stabilizes in 2Q and then begins to rebound, in large part due to the timing and degree of easing. After any easing of credit conditions, policy accommodation will focus more on RRR cuts (some 4-8 cuts are expected during the year), proactive tax cuts, increased fiscal spending, and deregulation in infrastructure and service sectors, followed by property policy relaxation (e.g., replacing purchase restrictions with property tax) around mid-year. Actual cuts in policy interest rates are only possible if inflation falls below 3.5% which is unlikely. Overall, liquidity conditions in 2012 should be looser than that in the past year. These conditions can often be estimated based on the gap between M2 growth and Nominal GDP growth (the sum of GDP and CPI growth). We expect M2 growth to stay around 14% this year, 1.5 ppts above the estimated 8.4% real growth plus 4.1% inflation. This contrasts with -1 ppt in 2011 (13.6% M2 growth vs. 9.2% GDP growth and 5.4% inflation). M1 growth should also rebound above 10%, from 7.8% last November.

Chinese equity markets are all around their near-term resistance levels, and should point towards further upside once these levels have been breached. We expect further upside of 10-25% in MSCI China from Chinese New Year levels over the rest of 2012. Further upside will likely be driven by improved policy visibility this year and, more importantly, in the medium term after the government leadership change.

We favor sectors with low valuations, stable earnings growth and with credit conditions constrained. We would be Overweight in insurance, banks, IT, capital goods, energy and materials, but remain relatively cautious on real estate on possible policy overhang in the near term. Large caps with cyclical features should outperform in general.





Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: Citi Investment Research and Analysis
Publish date:25/01/12

Bank of America: Capital Better-Than-Expected, but Weak Underlying EPS Power (DB)

Bank of America: Capital Better-Than-Expected, but Weak Underlying EPS Power
The two key issues for BAC, in our view, are its capital and underlying earnings power. 4Q EPS was mostly in-line (at $0.15 vs. $0.16 for consensus), but capital levels were a positive surprise.

Capital levels building nicely
Tier 1 common came in at a higher than expected 9.86% under Basel 1 (vs. 8.7% at 9/30) given large one-time gains (ie. 29bps from the TruPs exchange and 24bps from the CCB sale) and lower RWAs (about 40bps) and we estimate 6.5-6.75% under Basel 3. Mgmt now expects Tier 1 common to reach 7.25-7.5% at YE 2012 (vs. previous guidance of 6.75-7%).

This should alleviate some capital concerns, but given BAC’s weak earnings power (from asset sales/divestitures and market share losses), still low capital vs. peers (under Basel 3) and mortgage/macro uncertainties, we still think additional exchanges of TruPs into common are likely.

Earnings power remains a concern
As investors switch focus to BAC’s underlying earnings power, it may be difficult to see given weak capital markets revenues, a bloated cost structure and lots of moving items. Reported 4Q11 EPS of $0.15 included $0.15-0.20 of net gains (see page 3 of BAC's earnings release) plus $1.2b of MSR gains and $1.1b of reserve release. Assuming better capital markets, a meaningful decline in expenses and stabilization in net interest income, we estimate EPS power of $1.00-1.10 (for 2013). In 2012E, we expect EPS closer to $0.60.

Underlying 4Q trends were sluggish
Net interest income rose just $200m q/q (up just 2% q/q un-annualized off an unusually weak 3Q, which included $1b of one-timers). Trading revenue was weak on an absolute basis (down 23% y/y ex CVA) and was worse than peers (which were down 18% y/y, on average). Other fees remained sluggish and expenses were high (which included $1.5b of mortgage litigation hits vs. our estimate of $0.5b).

Balance sheet trends were also weak, as average loans declined 1% un-annualized q/q and deposits declined 2%. Noninterest bearing rose 14% q/q un-annualized, but also lagged peers (which grew IB deposits 40-65% q/q, on average).

Credit quality improved
Nonperforming assets declined 5% from 9/30. Charge-offs declined 20% q/q—with nearly half the decline due to higher recoveries from the sale of previously charged off UK credit card loans and lien protection insurance in home equity. Ex this, charge-offs declined 13% q/q, commercial charge-offs declined 16%, and consumer charge-offs declined 13%.



Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: Deutsche Bank Securities
Publish date:25/01/12

Citigroup: 4Q Miss on Revenues & Expenses; De-Risking Going Well (DB)

Citigroup: 4Q Miss on Revenues & Expenses; De-Risking Going Well
C reported 4Q EPS of $0.38 vs. First Call of $0.49. Results included a number of moving pieces (detailed below), but the miss was due to disappointing underlying revenue and expense trends (driven by capital markets).

Special/lumpy items
4Q EPS included the following: a $40m net drag from CVA/DVA, $557m of legal costs (vs. $274m in 3Q), $428m of restructuring charges (vs. $208m in 3Q), $292m of hedge losses in the loan book (vs. gains of $647m in 3Q), $305m of mortgage repurchase reserves (vs. $296m) and a $300m (after tax) write-down of deferred tax assets. Reserve release was $1.5b (unchanged vs. 3Q).

Securities and banking
Weak firmwide revenue in 4Q was driven by very weak trading revenues. Ex CVA/DVA, FICC trading declined 28% q/q off an already weak 3Q (and -30% y/y), equity trading rose just 12% off a very low 3Q (and -60% y/y) and ibank fees were down 13% (and - 45% y/y). Given this, we expected more expense flexibility in IB. However, ex items, IB expenses were flat q/q—which was disappointing. Y/y, IB expenses declined 4%, but revenues were down 29%.

Weaker than expected expense leverage
Excluding litigation and restructuring, underlying firm-wide expenses were relatively flat both q/q and y/y, but revenue declined 8% q/q (un-annualized) and 11% y/y (ex CVA/DVA and credit hedge impacts). Mgmt expects up to a $2.5-3b decline in expenses in 2012 vs. $50.7b in 2011 or about $48b (ex repositioning, legal and other episodic items).

De-risking continued at a good pace
On a positive note, the de-risking story remained encouraging. On the credit side, firmwide charge-offs declined 9% q/q, nonperforming assets were down 13%, and early stage delinquencies (ex SAP and government guaranteed loans) declined 8%. Citi Holdings assets (ex retail cards) declined $22b (or 9%)—consistent with the $20-$30b pace over the past three quarters. Finally, capital continued to build, with Tier 1 common rising 10bps to a very solid 11.8% under Basel 1 (and we est. about 7% under Basel 3) and tangible book value rising $0.31 to $49.81.

Balance sheet trends
Net interest margin rose 7bps q/q to 2.90%, but net interest income was down slightly given declines in trading and the investment book (in aggregate, down $36b vs. 9/30). Average loans were flattish q/q, while period end loans rose 2% q/q un-annualized (including up 5% internationally). Average and period end deposits rose 2% q/q unannualized.




Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: Deutsche Bank Securities
Publish date:25/01/12

BLT faces financial woes

SINGAPORE: Indonesian shipping company PT Berlian Laju Tanker (BLT) announced Thursday the company and its subsidiaries will halt the servicing of their debt obligations.

BLT has announced it will "temporarily cease repayments on all of the company's bank loans and bonds and payments on ship leases and on similar obligations of its other subsidiaries" for the current financial year.

BLT's debt obligations for this financial year stands at an estimated US$418 million, according to the company's press release.

In a statement to the Singapore Exchange (SGX), BLT said the global economic slowdown, coupled with rising bunker fuel costs and weak freight rates, have "significantly impacted (its) business and financial position."

BLT has appointed FTI Consulting as its financial advisor to resolve its cash crisis.

While the company attempts to restructure its "operational activities and financial agreements" with its counterparties and creditors, it will request permission to suspend the trading of all its shares listed on SGX and Jakarta Stock Exchange.

Katharine Cheong-Koh, director of Research of Island Shipbrokers, said many shipping companies over-invested in the good years.

But with high bunker prices and poor earnings right now, these companies are now having a hard time servicing their debt commitments.

In response to BLT's announced debt standstill, Fitch Ratings on Friday downgraded the company's Long-Term Foreign-and Local-Currency Issuer Default Ratings from "CCC" to "C."

Analysts say factors that contributed to BLT's financial woes are shared by other players in the shipping industry.

"Apart from the high bunker prices, slowing demand and a glut of new vessels on order look set to challenge the shipping industry well into the first half of 2012," said Eric Ong, investment analyst, Kim Eng Research.

Mr Ong added that bigger shipping companies such as Maersk Group, which have stronger balance sheets and cash flow positions, will fare better than its smaller peers.

- CNA/wk

Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: http://www.channelnewsasia.com
Publish date: 27/01/12

Facebook Valuation Seen Between $75B-$100B




Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: CNBC
Publish date: 28/01/12

Submerged underwater (CIMB)

TANKER SHIPPING
Submerged underwater

The tanker segment seems to be in the worst predicament among the three shipping sectors as almost all the tanker companies are mired in huge losses. There is no relief in sight as we do not expect any major improvements in the tanker market over the next few years.

We continue to rate the tanker sector an Underweight as fundamentals are weak and could deteriorate further. MISC remains an Underperform as the higher losses from the tanker division partly offset the reduced liner losses.

Demand-supply gap to widen
We expect overall tanker rates to continue declining before recovering slightly in 2014. Until then, tanker operators will be in a tight spot. Demand growth for oil is expected to remain weak, at around 1.2% due to the fragile global economy. Given this and the Middle East tension that could choke off oil supply, tanker demand could fall significantly. Not helping matters is the newbuildings that are still entering the fleet. Since the tanker fleet is still relatively young and most single-hull tankers have been scrapped, we can expect fewer demolitions.

High bunker costs sapping profits
Tanker losses are likely to escalate in 2012, not only because of lower rates but also because of higher bunker cost. Despite tanker rates hovering at one of the lowest points in 10 years, bunker is close to the 2008 peak due to high demand from the growing shipping fleet and sustained high oil prices. Should bunker fuel remain elevated, many tanker companies would be under financial stress.

Will US crude oil imports collapse?
Experts are predicting a 66% collapse of crude oil imports by the US over the next 10 years due to declining domestic demand and increases in oil production from shale, Canadian oil sands and offshore sources. This may be the game changer that could put tanker rates in a prolonged slump as the US is the largest single importer of crude oil.

1. REVIEW OF 2011
1.1 Tanker rates fell 30-48% in 2011
Overall, the BDTI fell by 12.7% from 898 in 2010 to 784 in 2011. However, the average daily earnings for the various vessel classes declined by 30-48% in 2011. This is because the BDTI is derived from the Worldscale, an index based on the cost of operating a standard tanker on the route. The BDTI includes bunker cost pass-through whereas the daily TCE earnings are net of bunker. Therefore, the 30-48% collapse of the TCE last year is a better reflection of owners’ suffering than the BDTI.

Rates picked up in October until December due to strong demand for the winter season from China, Japan and S. Korea. The biggest decline in rates was seen in the larger vessel segments, namely the VLCC due to higher newbuilding deliveries from orders made in previous years.

1.2 Share prices of companies tanked in 2011
None of the tanker companies escaped the misfortunes that befell the tanker industry in 2011. The share prices of all tanker companies fell last year and General Maritime fell into bankruptcy. MISC’s share price performance largely tracked the FBM KLCI except for the final two months. MISC announced disappointing results in November, largely due to higher-than-expected tanker losses. Despite the boost to sentiment from the discontinuation of the liner operations, management painted a bleaker outlook for the tanker, chemical and offshore divisions in 2012.




1.3 Very modest growth in oil demand
Based on IEA’s estimates, total oil demand increased by just 1% in 2011 and is projected to increase by 1.5% in 2012. The majority of the growth came from non-OECD countries, mainly China. The developed world’s demand for oil has fallen as the US and the eurozone continue to grapple with slower growth, higher unemployment and debt problems. Much of the growth comes from the east, i.e. countries like China and India but is offset by the decline in demand from the western countries.

Based on Clarkson’s report for 2011, crude tanker demand increased by 2.2%. Clarkson’s measure reflects seaborne shipments of oil, which is growing at a faster rate than overall oil demand due to pipeline capacity limits. The measure also includes a distance factor, which has grown as China imports more from Latin America and Africa.

1.4 Impact of Arab Spring on tanker markets
The protests in the Middle East began in Tunisia in late December 2010 and spread to other nations. The governments of Tunisia, Egypt and Libya were overthrown eventually. The uncertainty caused by the unrest pushed oil prices to a peak of US$115/barrel (US WTI) in late April from a range of US$80-90/barrel before the uprising. During this period, oil supply from Libya declined from 1.6 mb/d to around 0.2mb/d, which placed upward pressure on oil prices in late February. Although Saudi Arabia ramped up its oil production, Saudi’s sour crude oil is not a perfect replacement for Libya’s high quality sweet crude oil.

Due to the temporary removal of Libyan oil exports from the cross-Mediterranean market, aframax employment in the region was badly hit. However, the VLCC benefited in late 2011 as Saudi Arabia upped its production of oil. Production levels in Libya have risen in recent months to around 0.6 mb/d and the market expects it to hit the 1.6 mb/d mark by end-2012. In the longer term, IEA estimates that OPEC will be able to increase its production levels by 6.5%, from 35.74 mb/d in 2010 to 38.07 mb/d in 2016.

1.5 New deliveries flood the market
The crude tanker fleet saw deliveries of 30.9m dwt for 2011, adding to the fleet of 304.6m dwt at the start of 2011. The deliveries comprised mainly of VLCC and suezmax tankers, the larger vessels. The average tanker fleet (dwt) grew by 4.7% for 2011, taking into account demolitions. Currently, around 55% of the entire fleet (dwt) are VLCC tankers.

As at end-2011, 97% of the entire crude tanker fleet is already double hull and the remaining 3% is likely to be phased out over the next two years. The order book as a percentage of total fleet fell from 32% at the start of 2011 to just 21% at year-end. New vessel orders in 2011 were only a handful as the majority of tanker operators became unprofitable and were unwilling to make huge investments.

Demolitions removed about 5.4m dwt of fleet capacity, lower than 2010’s 7.3m dwt. Despite lower tanker rates, there were fewer demolitions because many older vessels were already scrapped in 2009-10 and currently, approximately 88% of the entire crude tanker fleet is below 15 years of age. Nearly 42% of the entire tanker fleet is less than five years of age.

1.6 Casualties of the tanker downturn
Last year’s tough operating environment resulted in several high-profile casualties including Omega Navigation which filed for bankruptcy in July and Marco Polo Seatrade which followed suit in August. In November, General Maritime suffered the same fate. Many other companies were forced to restructure their debt or, in the case of Frontline, sell off assets. While bunker fuel is close to the peak in 2008, a VLCC currently earns around US$30,000/day compared to the 2008 average earnings of US$97,000/day. 2011 is said to one of the most difficult times in the tanker sector since the 1970s and 2012 does not look any better.

Frontline expected to face cash flow difficulties in 2012 and decided to proceed with a major restructuring that was completed early January. Frontline 2012 was established, a separate entity that would buy vessels and take over all the debt and newbuilding commitments of Frontline. Post restructuring, Frontline will have a fleet of 40 vessels but a debt-free balance sheet to prevent the company from falling into bankruptcy. In the plan, Frontline 2012 was listed on the Oslo over-the-counter market and was financed with a private placement of 100m new shares in a deal worth US$285m.

1.7 Second-hand values took a big hit
With the majority of the tanker fleet being under 10 years of age and given the dim prospects for a big rise in tanker rates, demand for second-hand tankers has fallen significantly, resulting in lower vessel prices. It is likely that many tanker operators are also in dire need of cash to stay afloat and are forced to sell vessels at much cheaper prices.

For the financially-sound companies, many of them prefer to invest in newbuildings with better fuel efficiency and technology to position themselves well whenever the market turns. This reason, in addition to escalating raw material costs, probably explains why newbuilding prices have not fallen as sharply as second-hand vessels.

MISC ordered four VLCCs in July 2010 at a cost of US$107.5m each compared to the current price of US$99m. In June 2010, the company also ordered four suezmax tankers at a cost of US$67.8m each. The current price is US$60.5m. Over the course of 18 months, newbuilding vessel prices have fallen roughly 8-11%.
2. OUTLOOK
2.1 Crude oil demand to be relatively stagnant
As the world wrestles with slower growth in 2012, crude oil demand growth is unlikely to surprise on the upside. The biggest consumer of oil is still the United States (26%), followed by OECD Europe (15.6%). However, demand is forecast to decline by 0.6% in the US and 1.4% in OECD Europe this year. While demand from the non-OECD countries will increase, this is mostly offset by the decline in OECD countries. Demand for oil up to 2016 is also not expected to take a giant leap, with the IEA predicting global demand growth of 1.2% (+1.1 mb/d) on average each year. Consequently, we do not expect demand for tanker shipping to pick up strongly this year or the years thereafter. There may be seasonal swings along the way but overall, we expect demand for tanker shipping to be around the low 2% range in 2012-14.

One potential positive for tanker shipping is the possible increase in distances shipped as a result of the Iranian oil sanctions. As an example, China recently turned to Latin America for a greater proportion of its crude imports due to the sanctions placed on Iran. This will be beneficial to tanker shipping due to the increase in tonne miles. However, a structural decline in US oil imports could be the bull in the china shop, as we will explain below.
2.2 US to import less oil in future
The US is the single largest importer of oil but the absolute amount has been gradually trending down, along with the proportion – from 21.6% in 2007 to 17.8% in 2011. The trend is also declining for the EU and Japan. Fast-growing countries like China and India are importing more due to strong demand.

According to Clarkson, there is growing consensus that in a space of just 10 years, US oil imports could fall from the current level of 9.2 mb/d to just 3 mb/d, a collapse of 66% because of the increasing US domestic production of shale oil, rising US offshore production and higher Canadian production of oil sands which is exported to the US via pipeline. This is probably the most significant event that could affect crude tanker demand in the future and could be a source of many years of depressed tanker rates.
While domestic demand for oil in the US has declined and is expected to remain relatively flat, its crude oil production has been steadily increasing since 2008. This is due to the development of unconventional and offshore reserves, along with general advances in technology. The increased output from inland shale oil reserves is another major factor, with production expected to increase further in the coming years. US refinery throughput has also increased despite weaker domestic demand, fuelled by an increase in domestic crude production.
What is shale oil? It is an organic-rich sedimentary rock which contains significant amounts of kerogen (chemical compounds), from which liquid hydrocarbons called shale oil can be produced. Shale oil is a substitute for crude oil but its extraction cost is higher. IEA estimates production costs at around US$40-55/barrel and the US Bureau of Land Management estimates a cost of more than US$60/barrel. Major deposits have been discovered in America and recent technologies have helped boost production. The US Department of Energy estimates US shale oil reserves at two trillion barrels, more than 7x the stated oil reserves of Saudi Arabia. IEA is forecasting shale oil output to increase to 1.36 mb/d by 2016 (2010: 37 mb/d) in the US. Canada’s total oil production is also expected to increase by 1.3 mb/d by 2016 from natural gas liquids and oil sands.

Currently, existing pipeline networks in the US are overwhelmed by the surge in oil output. Due to logistical gridlocks, inventories at Cushing, Oklahoma have reached historical levels, which explain the discount in US WTI price to Brent in recent years. However, investments are pouring into the expansion of the pipeline networks to ease bottlenecks and expansion into new markets. In the near future, there are some who believe that the higher production from shale oil and deep offshore oil fields could result in a significant collapse of US crude oil imports, rivalling the decline between 1977 and 1985 which was caused by higher oil prices as a result of the Arab oil embargo.

We believe that demand for crude tankers to transport oil to the US will shrink in the coming years. This will place further downward pressure on rates, in an environment where the supply of vessels will continue to grow until 2013. This is partially offset by higher US exports of refined products to the Caribbean as higher domestic availability of crude oil has encouraged an increase in US refinery throughput. Product tankers will be a key beneficiary of this phenomenon but for the tanker sector as a whole, the declining US import demand for crude is expected to have a far greater negative impact on tanker tonne-mile demand than rising US product exports.
2.3 Potential risk of oil supply from the Middle East
Apart from the recent political uprising in Middle East countries, the recent sanctions on Iran’s oil placed by the US and Europe have increased tensions and risks for the supply of oil in the near future. Iran is threatening to close off the Strait of Hormuz, probably the world’s most important passageway or chokepoint for oil shipments. The impact of the Iranian tensions is twofold. The sanctions on Iranian oil exports and any sabre-rattling on the closure of the Strait of Hormuz may work to the benefit of tanker rates but an actual closure itself would undoubtedly be negative for the tanker market.
The Strait of Hormuz is the only sea passage to the open ocean for large areas of the petroleum-exporting Persian Gulf. Tankers carrying 17m barrels of crude oil pass through the strait on an average day. 35% of the world’s seaborne oil shipments and 20% of oil traded worldwide in 2011 went through the straits.
VLCC tankers account for 80% of total voyages going through the straits, commonly used to transport oil to the east.
An attempted closure of the straits which heightens the uncertainties would benefit tanker rates. Owners would be able to demand additional risk premium to carry cargoes from the Middle East which would increase tanker earnings. In addition, countries that place an embargo on Iranian crude purchases would probably have to source for oil from other regions like the Atlantic Basin, thereby boosting overall tonne-mile demand for tankers. China, the largest purchaser of oil from Iran, has already reduced its imports from Iran significantly in the past two months, turning to alternative sources from Latin America and Africa. Iran’s second largest customer, Japan as well as South Korea and European nations have said that they will gradually shift away from buying Iranian crude over the next year. However, some experts think that China is using the sanctions to get a discounted price for Iranian crude and will not cut back too much on its imports.

Another potential source of replacement crude is Saudi Arabia. Iran produces about 3.55mb/d or approximately 4% of world oil demand in 2011. Currently, only Saudi Arabia has excess capacity to fill part of the void left by Iran. However, the spare capacity is not an exact match for Iranian Heavy. The closest substitute is the Arab Light although much of current Saudi spare capacity may be held in the form of less-suitable Arab Medium or Arab Heavy.

If Iran decided to actually close the Strait of Hormuz, tanker rates would probably plummet. Although there are some pipelines from the Middle East Gulf to either the Mediterranean or Red Seas, they are either out of action (Basra/Kirkuk pipeline) or working close to capacity. The large decline in export volumes from the surrounding countries would more than offset the additional distance, probably leaving tankers scrambling for cargoes. Closure of the strait, although very unlikely, could also cause crude oil price to spike up to US$150-200/barrel, and in the process cause a major downturn in global oil demand.
2.4 Newbuildings supply a major concern
Newbuilding orders from the boom in 2006-08 are now flooding the market, causing a major oversupply situation and depressing rates. The tanker sector has one of the youngest fleets out there and since the proportion of single hull vessels has fallen to a mere 3% of the entire fleet, it is unlikely that demolitions will pick up the pace even though tanker rates are expected to fall further.

We do not expect a lot of new vessel orders as most tanker companies are struggling to even stay afloat. The order book as a percentage of fleet should continue to fall in the coming years, which will ease the supply growth.
2.5 Demand-supply imbalance to last until end 2013
Overall, we expect tanker rates to decrease until 2013 and pick up slightly in 2014 when the entry of new vessels slows down. The surplus of supply over demand is expected to increase from 18.9% in 2011 to 24.2% in 2013 before dropping to 23.6% in 2014. The glut will be the highest for suezmax and panamax tankers. On average, we expect the BDTI to come off by around 10% in 2012 and 2013 but increase by 5% in 2014 as the demand-supply balance improves slightly.

Demand for VLCC vessels should remain relatively strong as growth in East Asia (China, Japan, S. Korea) and ASEAN is expected to outpace that of the western countries over the next few years. Suezmax tanker growth will decline as the US imports less oil over the next decade. These two vessel classes will also see the largest growth in fleet due to massive deliveries in the coming years.

For the aframax segment, Poten’s report indicates that the spot market has continued to shrink as a result of lower export volumes to the UK and Caribbean. We expect this to pick up again in 2014. Aframax vessels, which are also commonly used for lightering services in the US, will see less demand in the future as the US imports less crude oil. On the other hand, it has been reported by Lloyd’s that new aframax crude tankers with clean hulls are stealing business from large product tankers, albeit at discounted rates. The increased product throughput from US refineries will also boost aframax tanker demand.
3. RISKS
3.1 Strong global growth
Should economies especially developed countries grow more than expected, demand for oil would probably increase. This would be very positive for crude tanker demand and could boost rates.

3.2 Slower fleet supply growth
If tanker deliveries are delayed or tanker operators decide to idle or further slow-steam vessels, fleet supply growth could come in below forecast. This would help improve the supply-demand imbalance.

3.3 Unforeseen circumstances
Events such as tensions in the Middle East could increase earnings for tankers as they could demand additional compensation for the risks involved. If there is strong reason to believe that oil supply may be disrupted, there could also be a tussle for oil cargoes which would lead to a spike in tanker demand. Other events such as weather-related delays, heavy ice conditions in the Baltic, political developments, strikes or port congestion could also cause rates to spike up.

4. FINANCIALS
4.1 Companies sank into losses in 2011
While some tanker companies managed to stay profitable in 2010, all of the listed companies below plunged into losses in 2011 as the operating environment worsened. Although consensus is projecting financial improvements in 2012 for some companies, it could be for company-specific reasons. We are projecting losses for MISC’s tanker division to increase this year.
VALUATION AND RECOMMENDATION
4.2 Maintain Underweight on tanker sector
We expect the operating environment for tankers to remain very difficult up until 2013 due to slower demand growth and newbuilding deliveries entering the market at a faster pace. Even in the most bullish of projections for oil demand, it is unlikely that the forecast can match the average fleet growth for 2012 and 2013, causing a massive glut. As a result of this and the declining oil import demand from the US, demand should not surprise on the upside.

Oil supply could be disrupted due to the tensions in the Middle East countries or if Iran decides to close the Straits of Hormuz. Tanker rates would probably plunge due to the scarcity of cargoes. In the meantime however, threats of closure and sanctions could lift crude tanker demand from the additional risk premium and tonne-mile effect. We expect the demand-supply imbalance to improve and rates to recover only in 2014 as entry of new vessels declines due to fewer newbuilding orders over the next two years.

We forecast the Baltic Dirty Tanker Index (BDTI) to fall by 10% in 2012 and 2013, before recovering by 5% in 2014. We maintain our Underweight recommendation on the tanker sector. 2012 is likely to be a difficult year for tanker operators, many of which could face financial distress.

4.3 MISC remains an Underperform
We continue to rate MISC an Underperform with a target price of RM5.48 based on 1.2x P/BV. Although 52% of its tankers are currently on term charters, some of these contracts will expire in the next two years. We understand that the term charters for the VLCCs are still profitable even with the current high bunker cost. This means that MISC’s tanker losses could worsen when the charters are renewed at current market rates.

On top of that, many of MISC’s aframax tankers are exposed to services in the US on the lightering business. As we expect crude oil imports by the US to decline gradually over the next couple of years, MISC’s operations in the US are likely to face stiffer competition. However, its new aframax tankers which are equipped to carry oil products could be a beneficiary of the increased refined throughput from the US. We think that MISC’s tanker division is unlikely to turn profitable, even in 2014.

In 2012, MISC will focus on winding down its liner business by June 2012. For its tanker business, MISC aims to renew its fleet to incorporate the latest technology that will improve fuel efficiency. This will put it ahead of its competitors when the sector turns around. The company will also turn its focus to its tank terminal (VTTI) projects which provide more stable earnings. By end of 2012, VTTI expansion plans will raise storage capacity by 50% from 6.2 cbm to 9.2 cbm.



Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: CIMB-Research,
Publish date: 20/01/12

Suntec REIT: Offering a Very Attractive Yield of Over 8% (citi)

Suntec REIT (SUNT.SI)
Buy Price (19 Jan 12) S$1.15
Target price S$1.53
Expected share price return 33.6%
Expected dividend yield 8.6%
Expected total return 42.3%

Alert: Offering a Very Attractive Yield of Over 8%
Results largely in line. For 4QFY11, Suntec REIT reported 2.48 cents, making its full year FY11 DPU at 9.93cents. However, DPU declined 2.1%qoq. The results were in line with our estimates and very marginally ahead of consensus 9.8 cents. Qoq, revenue was 17.8% higher due to contribution from Suntec Singapore. Excluding Suntec Singapore, rental revenue was down a marginal 0.6%.

Office occupancy and signing rents improved qoq. Occupancy for its office portfolio as at Dec-11 improved qoq to 99.2% (3Q11: 98.6%), helped by Suntec City office, which saw occupancy increase to 99.2% from 98.0%. Leases secured for the quarter averaged at S$8.72psf pm, a slight rise from the S$8.41psf achieved in 3Q11 but lower than the S$9.28psf pm in 2Q11.

Retail Portfolio stabilized. Committed average passing rentals at Suntec City Mall were relatively flat at S$10.09 vs. S$10.10psf in 3Q11. Occupancy at Suntec City Mall also improved marginally to 96.7% from 96.5% previously. Retail passing rents at Park Mall improved to S$7.70psf from S$7.51 previously.

Buy maintained. Suntec REIT is highly attractive with its current yield of over 8%. Although we are cautious of the office sector, Suntec REIT has taken steps to mitigate any potential decline. In view of the current Euro crisis and the uncertain economic outlook in 2012, Suntec REIT stepped up its proactive leasing strategy and forward renewed more than 233,000sqft of its leases due to expire in 2012, with a balance of approximately 10% of the leases due to expire in 2012.

Valuation
Our target price of S$1.53 is derived from DDM. Inclusive of its 12-month forward DPU of 9.9 cents, the stock should be worth at least S$1.63 per share. We chose DDM as our valuation method as it is the most commonly used metric for valuing real estate investment trusts. We made the following assumptions in deriving our target price: 1) a risk-free rate of 3.4%; 2) an equity risk premium of 5%; 3) beta of 0.5; 4) a terminal growth rate of 0%.

Risks
The key downside risks to our investment thesis on Suntec REIT are: 1) A sharp decline in economic activity could weaken retail space demand, cutting occupancy and rental rates and thus DPU and valuations; and 2) A sharp rise in interest rates could increase the cost of debt, lowering its DPU while increasing cost of capital and lowering its DDM valuation; 3) A conflict of interest could arise as Suntec REIT is managed by ARA Trust Management, which also manages Fortune REIT, a Hong Kong-focused retail-property REIT listed on the Singapore Exchange; and 4) A large proportion of its properties are located in the same development making it susceptible to a downturn in the micro-property market. Other REITs have more diversified property portfolios. If any of these risk factors has a greater downside impact than we anticipate, the share price will likely have difficulty attaining our target price..


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: Citi Investment Research & Analysis
Publish date:19/01/12

CMT: FY11 results review: prepared for an uncertain year ahead (JPM)

CapitaMall Trust
Price: S$1.75
Price Target: S$2.10
Previous: S$2.20
FY11 results review: prepared for an uncertain year ahead

CT reported FY11 DPU of S$0.0937/unit, annualizing 5.4% yield, 5% below J.P. Morgan estimates (adjusting for the retained income) but inline with consensus estimates. 4Q11 NPI was down 8% Q/Q on the back of elevated operating expenses and lowered occupancy at Illuma and Atrium@Orchard due to ongoing AEI works. Rental growth was also weaker in the last quarter, partly dragged down by weaker performance at Sembawang shopping centre. Full year reversion came in at +6.4. The trust recorded a positive revaluation of S$40million, with cap rate compression ranging between 10-15bps. Gearing for the trust is at 38% with an averaged cost of borrowing at 3.5%. The trust will trade ex- 4Q11 dividend of S$0.0128/unit on 26-Jan-12.

Prepared for an uncertain year ahead? Despite a rather cautious outlook statement, management is comfortable with the distributable income growth yoy given the stream of AEI completions. Management indicated that the completion of the existing AEIs would generate an addition NPI of S$45million on an annualized basis and we estimate that S$19million of which will come in FY12. Management has also retained S$5.1million income from this year and we also note a substantial increase in payables.

Calibrating our earnings estimates. We have lowered our earnings estimates for FY12E - FY14E by 6 - 9% as we incorporate the latest earnings as well as fundraisings done in 4Q11.

We retain our OW rating with our Dec-12 DDM-based price target lowered to S$2.10/unit, as a result of downward earnings revision. Key risks to our rating and price target include: 1) worse-than-expected operating fundamentals, rental reversions in particular; 2) a re-tightening of the credit markets that increases borrowing costs for CMT substantially beyond 4% and risk of equity fundraisings; and 3) a rising interest-rate environment that would cause underperformance of the high-yield stock.

Price target and valuation analysis
Our Dec-12 price target is based upon a 6.5% discount to our dividend discount model. Our dividend discount model applies standardized quantitative and qualitative adjustments to derive a specific discount rate for each of the REITs under our coverage.



Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: J.P. Morgan
Publish date:18/01/12
Warren E. Buffett(沃伦•巴菲特)
Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful
别人贪婪时我恐惧, 别人恐惧时我贪婪
投资只需学好两门课: 一,是如何给企业估值,二,是如何看待股市波动
吉姆·罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)
“错过时机”胜于“搞错对象”:不会全军覆没!”
做自己熟悉的事,等到发现大好机会才投钱下去

乔治·索罗斯(George Soros)

“犯错误并没有什么好羞耻的,只有知错不改才是耻辱。”

如果操作过量,即使对市场判断正确,仍会一败涂地。

李驰(中国巴菲特)
高估期间, 卖对, 不卖也对, 买是错的。
低估期间, 买对, 不买也是对, 卖是错的。

Tan Teng Boo


There’s no such thing as defensive stocks.Every stock can be defensive depending on what price you pay for it and what value you get,
冷眼(冯时能)投资概念
“买股票就是买公司的股份,买股份就是与陌生人合股做生意”。
合股做生意,则公司股份的业绩高于一切,而股票的价值决定于盈利。
价值是本,价格是末,故公司比股市重要百倍。
曹仁超-香港股神/港股明灯
1.有智慧,不如趁势
2.止损不止盈
成功者所以成功,是因为不怕失败!失败者所以失败,是失败后不再尝试!
曾淵滄-散户明灯
每逢灾难就是机会,而是在灾难发生时贱价买股票,然后放在一边,耐性地等灾难结束
  • Selected Indexes 52 week range

  • Margin of Safety

    Investment Clock

    World's First Interactive Investment Clock