Saturday, January 21, 2012

Market strategy: Run Singa, Run

Market strategy
Run Singa, Run
With lower expectations on sales and margins priced in to a large extend, and with investors keen put money to work, the market is likely to rally near-term. We recommend rotation into laggard beta plays with good balance sheets, noting that momentum-based investing has been particularly successful in Singapore. Beyond the next quarter, renewed concerns regarding margins and profitability will warrant a return to defensive investing, reflecting our modest market upside of 4%. Favour beta near-term…

 Investor feedback suggests there are sizable funds awaiting deployment in the markets, pending some directional clarity.

 With GDP growth expectations lowered and 4Q11 results unlikely to disappoint enough to warrant another leg down, in the near term, the market could rally.

 Work by the Microstrategy team indicates momentum has been the most successful strategy in Singapore, reflecting the limited breadth of the listed market.

 Anaemic forecast returns suggest sector rotation will determine relative returns.

…but not throwing caution to the winds
 In the medium term, any real solution for the Euro zone will imply pain, not just for the Euro zone, but also for all regions exposed to it.

 Earnings growth expectations, while dramatically lower than a year ago, are still too optimistic.

 Valuations, although much more reasonable than 2 quarters ago, is more fair than attractive after taking into account forecast ROE.

Musical chairs
 In the near term, 2011’s laggards with strong balance sheets are likely to benefit and the winners likely to underperform, owing to sector rotation.

 Over the year, given the macro uncertainty, a buy-and-hold strategy that includes quality companies with strong balance sheets and cash flows is likely to succeed.

 The absolute-return Dividend cocktail portfolio is our favoured approach; it includes 7 stpcks – HPHT, KEP, SPH, ST, STE, STH, and UOB.

 We remain underweight financials, transport and consumer discretionary, overweight staples and industrials, and neutral property and telecom.

 Top BUY ideas are UOB, CAPL, CMA, GENS, NOBL, and SMM.

 Top SELL ideas are SGX, CIT, COS.

Favour beta near term…
Leading into 2012, our conversation with nearly 50 investors in Asia, the UK and the US indicated high cash levels and an apparent keenness to deploy capital, although lacking the conviction to do so one way or another. With volumes picking up over the last week, it appears that investors are starting to follow through on this inclination.

It is also worth noting that towards the end of 2011, analysts finally took the knife to their earnings forecasts. For the majority of the year, market returns, or the lack thereof, was a function of shrinking PE multiples. Only in November and December did we see a meaningful chunk of market returns attributed to EPS changes.

The lower official guidance for 2012 GDP growth of 1-3% was partly to blame. But some credit is due to the analyst community too, for finally seeing the writing on the wall. In fact, 3-month EPS revision in Singapore was among the most pronounced across Asian ex-Japan markets.

It is the view of this analyst that estimates for 2012 earnings growth are still higher than they ought to be. An EPS growth of 5.9% in 2012 appears at odds with a 0% GDP growth forecast, with financials likely to be at most risk of further downgrades. However, this is increasingly becoming the consensus view, which would then imply that this is, at least in part, priced in.

Nonetheless, it appears that the bulk of the downward earnings revisions are behind us (7.2% vs. another ~3%).

Momentum, followed by Defensiveness, was the best performing investment style in Singapore. Indeed, momentum has been the best performing style in Singapore over both the medium and long terms, generating positive returns throughout. Momentum is defined as 3-month price change, in combination with the weighted change in EPS over the past 3 months (see fig __).

The consistent outperformance of momentum, as an investment style in Singapore, can be explained by the relative shallow listed equity market. With limited stocks to choose between, investors tend to pile into the same few names so long as basic criteria such as quality and valuation are met. Thus, outperformers tend to outperform for longer than they should and underperformers tend to lag for longer than they should. It is therefore likely that over the next few weeks and months, momentum will prove to be successful once again.

However, this is at odds with sector-level findings. Banks, property & telecom, which together account for nearly 60% of MSCI Singapore, tend to favour value-driven styles.

What this serves to confirm is that the performance of the Singapore market is determined by inter-market funds movements rather than intra-market funds movements. That is to say that the relative attraction of Singapore in the regional context is more important for domestic market performance than sector rotation within the market. Whether local investors determine which stocks garner attention from overseas investors, or vice versa, the disparity in the relative flow of funds underscores the success of momentum as an investment style in Singapore.

…but not throwing caution to the winds
The preceding discussion is not intended to suggest that we are out of the woods by any means. We wish to stress that we are more bearish than consensus with our 0% GDP growth forecast for 2012 and a stronger USD will certainly do no favours to USD investors.

With Singapore, being an open economy with exports to GDP ratio printing at ~200%, any negative surprise in the Eurozone, the US or China will have a material negative impact.

The historic relationship between GDP growth and EPS growth, as well as between the change in GDP growth and market movements both point towards downside; in the latter instance, the downside appears considerable.

Singapore was among the worst performing markets in Asia ex-Japan in 2011; MSCI Singapore lost 17%. Consequently, market valuations have come off considerably, with both PER and PBR charts indicating current levels nearly 1 standard deviation below historic average levels.

However, with ROE expected to languish at 5-year lows of 11.9% vs. 15.8% historic average, current valuations are only slightly below fair value. Thus, while the market offers value, it is not attractive enough for us to abandon caution just yet.

Musical chairs
If the 12-month outlook isn’t rosy, and momentum is likely to be the most successful investment style, which stocks are likely to have momentum in their favour?

It is widely noted, and fairly in our view, that the Singapore market lacks breadth in the investable universe. As such, any change to preferences is typically a case of musical chairs – with each successive selection, one has fewer options.

In our view, quality companies with strong balance sheets that have lagged the overall market in 2011 will find favour in the near term. These include UOB, NOBL, SMM, GENS, SATS, NOL, CAPL and CMA.

It is worth noting that a momentum-based investment style requires a nimble-footed approach that may not be suited to all investors. Given limited scope in the next 12 months for a fundamental market re-rating driven by margin expansion or capital deployment, we recommend a total-return approach, reflected in our Dividend Cocktail portfolio (fig 14).


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: CLSA-Research,
Publish date: 16/01/12

投機不能只靠想像力

投機不能只靠想像力

撰文者:滑滑輪
科斯托蘭尼《一個投機者的告白》系列書藉不論在全球何處,都是投資人必讀的書藉之一,可堪稱是經典之作。裡頭深入淺出且富有樂趣、生活化、讓人易懂的例子貫串著全書。投資人也都能朗朗上口其中經典故事,如牽狗理論或是科斯托蘭尼雞蛋。

但即便讀過相當多次,多數人卻還是無法在投資市場裡賺錢。我以曾為散戶過來人的身份解析,主要的原因可能是太過抽象了。

所以我試著用用投資的經驗來做實際面的解讀,希望能讓讀者能對投資市場有更進一步的認識。

想像力

首先我們來談論「想像力」的部份。科斯托蘭尼先生認為光是取得所有股票的資訊是不夠的,想像力才是投機(speculate)操作的原始動力,也是成功的先決要件。

我認為想像力很重要,它確實是股票在猛衝階段的加分要素,但不是你需要最先了解的部份。在想像力之前,投資人必需先具備一套完整的投資方法系統、方法與邏輯,否則光是只靠想像力沒有用的。科斯托蘭尼之所以會這樣說,那是因為他已經具備了前者的條件,也就是他擁有一套完整的投資邏輯、策略與方法。

舉個具體的例子:對一隻股票會大漲的想像力,在事後驗證會有三種結果:對(股票真的上漲)與錯(股票下跌),不對也不錯(股票盤整)。

如果只留下想像力,情形很容易變成當股票下跌或者在盤跌時,依舊對於該股票擁有強大的信心,但無法做到停損進而控制自己的風險;當股票上漲時,由於想像力會無限延伸,也會持續抱著而不知道什麼時候要出脫股票。以致於許多人都有過類似的經驗,抱上又抱下,都沒有賺到錢。

想像力十分重要,但只有想像力是不夠的。

若試著將科斯托蘭尼先生寫過的系列書籍目錄重排,將書中教導的方法、投資邏輯與策略的部份先看先學會,我想對於一般讀者會更有幫助。

但這個方法要注意一件非常重要的事:這些不同的方法、投資邏輯與策略都有各別搭配著它們的週期。

從各個角度看來,科斯托蘭尼先生都沒有錯,只是週期這件事被人們輕易地忽略罷了,更大的可能是:讀者不懂不同的方法必須使用著不同的週期。

關於週期,我想留到後面花比較多的篇幅來談,這裡我想強調的是想像力與實際方法的結合。

當你有策略方法時,上述例子的三種情形發生時,你都知道該怎麼辦,最壞的情形也都設想好了。當風險控制住了,而最後當發生你你所想像的事情時,想像力才能發揮出它的最大功能,在你設定該賣出的條件達成時候賣掉。

想像力加策略方法,這樣的結合才會是對投資人實際能夠獲利的最佳結合。

Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 商業周刊
Publish date: 04/07/11

Indonesia: A Second ‘Investment Grade’ Rating

Indonesia: A Second ‘Investment Grade’ Rating
It was not a surprise when Moody’s lifted Indonesia’s sovereign ratings from Ba1 to Baa3 with a stable outlook this afternoon, returning Indonesia to investment grade. It was a matter of when, and not if, Moody’s (and/or Standard & Poor’s) would make the move. This is the second sovereign upgrade that Indonesia has received in the space of about a month. Moody’s cited robust domestic economic environment, stronger fiscal position and healthy foreign exchange reserves as reasons for the upgrade.

Market reaction was positive but not overwhelming. In the equity market, the JCI gained 12 points following the announcement, wiping out earlier losses. The IDR did appreciate to 9,105 against the USD from the morning’s low of 9,198.75 but has since returned some of the gains to rise by just 0.9% at 9,120 at the point of writing. Bond yields saw slight gains with the 1-year, 5-year and 10-year falling by about 12, 6 and 3 bps to 4.6938%, 5.2274% and 5.99% respectively. The rating upgrades by both Fitch and Moody’s reflect the positive changes that have taken place in Indonesia since the Asian financial crisis. However, more needs to be done as risks still abound.

These includes structural impediments like the inflexible labor laws and corruption, the need for great infrastructure spending to connect the resource-rich but outlying islands to distribution centers and the need to keep subsidy spending in check.

Thus far, with GDP growth likely to hit 6.5% in 2011 and 6.1% in 2012 (OSK projections), it looks like this could be the start of a great Year of the Dragon for Indonesia – the Year of the Komodo Dragon that is.



Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: DMG & Partners Research
Publish date:19/01/12

2012-0112-57金錢爆(惠譽調快歐債末日鐘)










Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: youtube
Publish date:12/01/12

John Mauldin 2012投資預言

John Mauldin 2012投資預言

踏入2012年,全球經濟仍充滿變數,其中歐債危機懸而未決,最為投資者擔心。美國投資界公認權威之一John Mauldin,以其縱橫投資界多年的眼光,分析當前形勢,斷言歐債最終必爆煲,聯儲局就算推QE3,亦難挽狂瀾。

想知道這位投資權威,為何有此語出驚人的見解,請留意以下的視頻及專訪報道。


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 信報
Publish date: 14/01/12

CapitaMall Trust: Upgrade to BUY - results in line (OCBC)

CMT announced 4Q11 distributable income of S$75.5m, or a DPU of 2.30 S-cents. Cumulatively, FY11 distributable income came in at S$301.6m, in line with our forecast of S$300.3m. Net property income for the year increased 4.8% YoY to S$418.2m, driven mostly by contributions from Clarke Quay and Illuma acquired in Jul10 and Apr11, respectively, and positive rental reversions. Management’s execution remains solid with new projects tracking closely to schedules. We also like that a substantial portion of income is derived from resilient suburban malls, given an uncertain economic outlook. Upgrade to BUY with a lower S$2.02 fair value (versus S$2.06 previously) with a 12m DPU forecast of 10.0 S-cents.

4Q11 numbers broadly in line. CMT announced 4Q11 distributable income of S$75.5m or a DPU of 2.30 S-cents. Cumulatively, FY11 distributable income came in at S$301.6m, in line with our forecast of S$300.3m. Net property income for the year increased 4.8% YoY to S$418.2m, driven mostly by contributions from Clarke Quay and Illuma acquired in Jul10 and Apr11, respectively, and positive rental reversions.

Operating expenses tracking higher. Though we saw FY11 revenue increase 8.5% YoY (3.6% on a same-store basis), operating expenses tracked at a faster rate (up 16.7% YoY or 7.9% on a same store basis). We understand that this came mostly from one-time expenses and also utilities and maintenance costs. Management indicated that they are actively curtailing operating expenses and we expect less aggressive margin pressure in FY12-13.

Lower valuations at IMM and Sembawang Shopping Centre. In terms of fair value adjustments - IMM’s valuation was lowered by S$53m to reflect lower rentals and margins as it transitions further into a bargain outlet mall; and Sembawang Shopping Centre’s valuation was lowered by S$19m to reflect lower rentals expectations.

Management executing well on AEIs and Westgate. JCube is currently 90% committed and we expect asset enhancement initiatives (AEI) at Atrium@Orchard and Illuma to keep on schedule (completion in 4Q12 and 2Q12 respectively). Management also proposed AEI plans for Clarke Quay, recovering space from the anchor tenant at Block C (1/4 of the NLA) to refresh the tenant mix. In addition, CMT’s first greenfield development project, Westgate, has commenced construction and is slated for completion by end 2013.

Upgrade to BUY. Management’s execution remains solid with new projects tracking closely to schedules. We also like that a substantial portion of income is derived from resilient suburban malls, given an uncertain economic outlook. Upgrade to BUY with a lower S$2.02 fair value (versus S$2.06 previously) with a 12m DPU forecast of 10.0 S-cents.




Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: OCBC Investment Research
Publish date:

Pavilion REIT: A Malaysia retail icon (MIB)

Pavilion REIT
Share price: RM1.09
Target price: RM1.10 (new)
A Malaysia retail icon
A class of its own. Pavilion REIT’s (PavREIT) key attraction lies in its asset portfolio and the jewel in its crown, Pavilion Kuala Lumpur (KL) Mall. Strategically located in the heart of Kuala Lumpur’s prime tourist and shopping district, this mall caters predominantly to the upper middle to high income group, and is one of only 4 prime retail malls in the country. We initiate coverage on PavREIT with a Hold rating and RM1.10 DCF-based target price. It currently trades at a 5.5% yield.

2nd largest M-REIT. PavREIT’s appeal is enhanced by its status as the 2nd largest M-REIT by market capitalisation (RM3.27b) and asset size (RM3.5b). The portfolio comprises Pavilion KL Mall (RM3.4b) and Pavilion Tower (RM0.1b). Given its relatively young assets of 4 years in age, there is scope for growth in rental yields.

Room for inorganic growth. With its low debt-to-asset ratio of 20%, there is potential to leverage another RM2.2b for immediate yield accretive acquisitions. PavREIT has been granted rights of first refusals (ROFR) to purchase two other malls and an extension of the Pavilion KL Mall worth approximately RM1.5b, which are only expected to be ready for injection from 2H13 onwards.

Resilient earnings. Pavilion KL Mall has a diversified and sizeable tenant base of over 450, which comprises mainly regional and international brand names. No single tenant contributes over 10% of total revenue, we estimate. With 67% of occupied NLA expiring only in 2013, its near-term earnings base are resilient. The mall has been chalking up higher average rentals psf despite opening for business at the onset of the global financial crisis in Sept 2007.

Initiate coverage with a Hold rating. With its status as the 2nd largest M-REIT, hands-on management team and its superior asset quality, PavREIT deserves a premium valuation. We value PavREIT at RM1.10, based on DCF valuation method. This implies 2012 gross dividend yield of 5.5% (vs. CMMT’s 5.9% and SunREIT’s 5.8%).


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: Maybank Investment Bank
Publish date:19/01/12

Quill Capita Trust: Growing organically (MIB)

Quill Capita Trust
Share price: RM1.11
Target price: RM1.10 (unchanged)
Growing organically

Defensive but not exciting yet. QCT’s 2011 recurring net profit of RM34.3m (+5.4% YoY) was within our expectations. FY12 dividend yield forecast of 7.8% is above the industry average of 6.8%, but we see limited upside due to concerns on oversupply in the office market. Hold maintained, with an unchanged DCF-based TP of RM1.10.

Within expectations. 4Q11 revenue of RM17.5m was marginally higher (+0.8% YoY) due to positive rental reversions from Quill 5 and Quill 8. Although revenue rose, operating expenses also jumped by 31.9% YoY. This was mainly due to more repair works on the properties towards the close of the year. 4Q11 DPU of 4.3sen translated to a 2011 DPU to 8.3sen (+3.4% YoY; 7.5% yield), within our forecasts.

No acquisitions in 2011. QCT was quiet on the acquisition front last year. This may not be a surprise owing to the current oversupply in the office market, with average occupancy in KL hovering around 80%. Average asking rentals for offices have been falling, as only a few selected prime offices (e.g. Petronas Twin Tower 2 and Menara Maxis) have been able to ask for RM8.00psf or more. Fortunately, only 23% of QCT’s properties in terms of NLA are located in the city centre.

A little more debt headroom. As at Dec’ 11, QCT’s gearing ratio stood at 0.36x, giving room for another RM60m new debt capacity before it reaches its internal target of 0.4x.

Maintain Hold. No changes to our earnings forecasts for FY12F-13F; we introduce our FY14 estimates. Hold maintained with an unchanged target price of RM1.10.



Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: Maybank Investment Bank
Publish date:19/01/12

Zhulian : Ending FY11 with a blast (Hwang)

Zhulian Corp Bhd
Ending FY11 with a blast
BUY RM1.89
Price Target : RM 2.30
At a Glance
• 4QFY11 and FY11 earnings were within our expectations; declared 4th interim 3 sen net DPS
• Expect FY12F to record new earnings high amid the current fragile global economy
• Maintain Buy and RM2.30 TP

Comment on Results
4QFY11 net profit grew 18.4% QoQ to RM28.8m despite a 5.4% drop in revenue to RM86.8m. This took FY11 net profit to RM96.1m.

The lower revenue this quarter was due to weaker domestic demand. But the impact was mitigated by an increase in share of associate profits (+11.9% to RM10.9m). And a 4% depreciation of the RM vs USD (3.00 in 3Q11 vs 3.12 in 4Q11) raised overseas translated revenue. Overall EBIT margin improved 300bps YoY and 590bps QoQ to 27.7%.

As expected, Zhulian declared a 4th interim 3 sen net DPS, taking FY11 dividend to 12 sen.

Recommendation
We are retaining our Buy call and RM2.30 TP, based on 6% FY12F yield, in line with its historical average. At end-Nov11, Zhulian was sitting on RM127.7m net cash (against RM131.5m in FY10) or 27.7 sen/share. We continue to like Zhulian for its resilient earnings amid the current fragile global economy. Zhulian’s earnings were resilient during the 2008/09 crisis; FY08 net profit grew 27% YoY and FY09 grew 10% YoY.


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: Hwang DBS Vickers Research
Publish date:20/01/12

2012信報財經論壇

踏入2012年,歐債危機持續困擾全球,投資市場瀰漫著一股不安的氣氛,想要衝開迷霧,認清投資方向,請教專家的意見便非常重要。


「2012信報財經論壇」邀請了四位獨當一面的投資專家,除了香港投資者相當熟悉的信報首席顧問曹仁超,及信報研究部主管莊志雄外,亦邀請了兩位國際重量級人馬:牛眼投資法創始人John Mauldin,及俄侶股票和企業策略部副行政總裁奧列格.穆哈麥德申,四大天王聚首一堂,讀者豈能錯過?










Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 信報
Publish date: 14/01/12

同威资本李驰:金融板块中最看好保险行业我的搜狐

同威资本李驰:金融板块中最看好保险行业我的搜狐

2012年01月09日17:53
(雪球讯)

  1月9日(周一)雪球邀请到同威资本创始人、CEO李驰与大家交流金融股投资前景、A股选股策略等相关话题。以下为访谈内容整理,欲与李驰先生直接交流,请直接@李驰 。

  1.对中国保险行业最看好 最担心平安投资下一个富通

  提问:能谈谈现在是买招行还是平安,那个好?

  李驰:你买哪个都比我买得便宜并买的迟,反正比我买得都便宜。至于哪个更好,我知道了就不会买不好的了。

  提问:最担心中国平安出什么问题?

  李驰:担心它在平安大厦封顶与股市在8000到1万点的时候头脑发热,再投资下一个富通。

  提问:你对平安收购深发展怎么看?深发展的质地,你认可吗?

  李驰:我对那家银行的服务都有些意见,但有意见说明它们有提升空间。

  提问:如何看待目前中国保险股的投资价值,内含价值比率都在历史低点了,但是地方债,股市下跌保费收入放缓等问题困扰着投资者,请问它们的股价已经反映了最坏的情况吗?

  李驰:我认为是基本反映了。

  提问:金融版块中银行、保险、证券,你更看好哪一个?说说原因吧!

  李驰:我对未来中国的真正的保险行业最为看好。 养儿防老是靠不注的,普通老百姓必须靠社保+商业保险来养老。

  2.现在“卖出银行股”很可能是高买低卖的决定

  提问:为什么您觉得目前“卖出银行股”是个错误的决定?

  李驰:因为这个决定很可能是个高买低卖的决定。

  提问:除去市盈率的低估不谈,您觉得银行股的长期成长速度,会赶不上消费,医药类吗?

  李驰:银行内短期的成长速度一直不比其他差,我不明白人们为什么热衷于其他而偏偏要放弃最确定的金融。

  提问:请问李总关于银行股,投资者担心的是表外资产问题,也就是境外看空者所说的影子银行问题,这些问题使得银行不论这几年交出怎样的靓丽业绩在资本市场上也都没得到正面反映。另外这些银行还不断融资,更让人怀疑,你这么的盈利能力,还总融资干嘛,悲观者更认为就是亏多少融多少,请问李总如何看待?

  李驰:明显用钱生钱好赚钱的时候,股本融资又没有明显摊薄每股盈利的时期,为什么老股东不支持融资。难到大家都希望在万科07年那时候的股价去参加增发或配股。 闻增资色变是得了灾后恐惧症。

  提问:如果中国房地产泡沫破灭,经济硬着陆,您认为中国银行业受的将是皮外伤还是伤筋动骨?我不怎么相信所谓的各类压力测试。

  李驰:不相信可以不买任何股票。如果你空仓,你已经是赢在起跑线上了。

  提问:您认为在投资逻辑上可以看空房产的同时看多金融股吗?

  李驰:银行不是一条腿走路。 银行是平台,卖什么产品都是卖。 地产也不是想象得那么坏。

  提问:今天A股大涨,你认为目前而今眼目下,招行最大的竞争对手是哪家银行?

  李驰:目前银行的竞争还远不激烈。大家都有饭吃的好日子还有几年。

  提问:民生银行冲劲十足,超越招商银行指日可待,那民生银行会在超越招商银行之前发生撞车事故吗?

  李驰:它们目前远远不是你死我活的关系。

  提问:请问您对浦发银行怎么看?看好它搞移动支付吗?

  李驰:目前对金融板块都有信心。

  3.看好安踏 李宁已是过去时 便宜的361也喜欢

  提问:请问你如何看李宁这家公司?

  李驰:过去时,新的看安踏。

  提问:特步,360的估值比安踏要便宜一半,产品定位也更多在在成长高的二三线城市,为行业第一的地位就要付这么大的溢价给安踏吗?

  李驰:香港市场或国家市场确实对第一给了溢价。便宜的361我也喜欢。

  提问:您对银行地产保险的看法我都认同,唯独蒙牛不能认同,感觉是否有点注重了财务而忽略了产品本身,固然还原奶易保存适合长途运输、利润高。但如果信誉危机真的生效大众不再消费蒙牛又或者人均奶制品消费水平提高,能达到消费屋状鲜奶的水准,又或者人们观念转变和国际接轨,鲜奶消费占据大比例,而去选择便宜的袋装巴氏鲜奶呢?这三种情况任何一种生效,蒙牛过去优秀的财务以及现在的价内价格在未来都会变成平庸的财务和价外的价格。

  李驰:我的话糙,当使坏能赚钱容易时,道德退居第二,赚钱排到第一;当使坏会损坏股东的利益时,企业自然就必须做市场接受的正确的事。 给目前的国内大品牌企业些时间,它们会走上正规的。

  提问:是否关注过类似格力电器、三一重工等制造升级后有可能在全球市场大放异彩的中国制造业龙头们呢?对他们怎么看?

  李驰:大家都看好的东西,已经没有了超级收益。 真正有水平的是在6-10年前发现了它们并重仓。

  提问:如何看待环保行业的机会?你认同A股市场是政策市的判断吗?

  李驰:什么行业都有机会、当然包含环保行业。 A股对许多股票还是半空。但对大股票,近底部了。

  4.H股金融股比A股贵 2012投资策略以防守为核心

  提问:A股和H股对同一银行股的估值有差异,可以挑便宜的那个买么?

  李驰:要买肯定买A股的金融。

  提问:是因为A股高估的时候估得比H股高吗?

  李驰:H股金融股比A股贵啊

  提问:之前看到你预测“中国股市六年内能到10000点”,听起来比较让人吃惊,请问这个预测的背后逻辑是怎样的?

  李驰:逻辑是GDP不退到5%,股市不关门。否则大股票的盈利5年番一倍是有保障的。如果热闹一点它们的估值也翻倍,就离万点不远了。

  提问:请问李老师,10年你投资业绩

  李驰:亏损啊。

  提问:能否分享下你2012年的投资策略?

  李驰:防守为核心。

  提问:同威还有PE基金吗?现在的PE是不是有点傻,二级市场都比一级市场便宜了,为什么PE不直接在二级市场买?

  李驰:对,二级是便宜了。 目前和以后的PE永远是沙李淘金。

  提问:你曾概括自己十多年的投资经历:冷清时,买是对,不买也对,但卖是错;热闹时,卖是对,不卖也对,买是错。请问你认为目前是A股“最冷清时”吗?那么“热闹时”大概何时能到来?

  李驰:绝对是冷清时期。热闹时期何时来天晓得。

  5.价值被低估时间一般不超过5-6年

  提问:以您的经验,价值被低估的时间一般不超过多少年?

  李驰:5、6年吧,但股市不是讲旧经验的地方,每一次它的低估外形与时间都高度不一样。

  提问:你认为在发审制管束下的A股市场适合价值投资吗?在如今的市况下你怎么看待发新股扩容问题?

  李驰:我不管我不买的股票上市第一天或今天是否高估。 如果你已经结婚,你是否关心是否需要马上离了再结一次?

  提问:我的资金量较小,耐不住寂寞的时候,或者融资期限的需要,在你选中的几个标的之间对倒操作,有多大可能增加收益,还得面临哪些风险?

  李驰:O是可能性,结果是负收益。

  提问:融资比例太高的话容易招致洗仓,完全不参与融资也不够好玩,请问您认为的最佳融资比例是多少?

  李驰:巴菲特的操作是长期钱越多越好,短期钱根本不要。

  提问:雪球网友叶为王认为“巴菲特不是谁都能学得来”,原因有三:1)巴菲特所拿到的入股条件不是一般人能得到的;2)巴菲特能得到是信息不是一般人能拿到的;3)巴菲特的投资往往是超长周期的投资,他可以忍受数年的亏损,并不是一般人能做得到。请问你怎么看这个判断?

  李驰:完全不同意,绝对不同意。 只是大家没有明白投资的精髓,以为一买就涨才对。

  提问:在你的投资生涯中,有没有曾经怀疑过自己的投资决策,最后是怎么处理的?

  李驰:有。动摇了,就是成了斩仓的股票。

  提问:城商行改制,积极推进上市,今明两年会形成上市高潮吗?

  李驰:完全可能。

  (雪球独家稿件 转载请注明出处)来源雪球)

Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts:
Publish date:

我问总理 - Ch8 Question Time with PM Lee









Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: youtube
Publish date: 14/06/11

CCT posts declines in Q4, full-year DPU

Business Times - 21 Jan 2012


CCT posts declines in Q4, full-year DPU

Portfolio committed occupancy dips to 95.8% at end-2011, down from 99.3% a year earlier

By KALPANA RASHIWALA

CAPITACOMMERCIAL Trust (CCT) has posted declines in its Q4 and full-year distribution per unit (DPU) figures.

The trust, which makes semi-annual distribution payouts, will give unitholders 3.75 cents for the July 1-Dec 31, 2011, period, down from 3.93 cents in the same year-ago period.

For the fourth quarter ended Dec 31, 2011, DPU dipped one per cent over the year-ago period to 1.92 cents. Gross revenue eased 2.4 per cent to $89.9 million due mainly to lower revenue from Six Battery Road as a result of lower occupancy and negative rent reversions. The redevelopment of Market Street Car Park into an office project also contributed to the revenue drop. However, this was mitigated by higher income contribution from other properties, mainly Raffles City, in which CCT has a 60 per cent stake.

Net property income slipped 3.6 per cent year on year to $68.3 million in Q4 on higher property operating expenses.

Q4's DPU of 1.92 cents reflects an annualised figure of 7.62 cents, translating to an annualised distribution yield of 6.66 per cent based on CCT's $1.145 closing price yesterday. The counter ended 3.5 cents higher yesterday.

Net asset value per unit rose 6.8 per cent from $1.47 at end-2010 to $1.57 at end-2011, excluding distributable income to unitholders.

For full-year 2011, CCT posted a 4 per cent drop in DPU to 7.52 cents, on the back of a 7.8 per cent slide in gross revenue to $361.2 million. The decline was due mainly to loss in rental income arising from the divestment of Robinson Point and StarHub Centre, lower revenue from Six Battery Road and the Market Street redevelopment.

However, the drop in total revenue was offset by higher income contribution from Wilkie Edge resulting from higher occupancy and higher revenue from Raffles City from the retail and hotel components. Full-year net property income slid 7.2 per cent to $277.3 million.

CCT's portfolio committed occupancy stood at 95.8 per cent at end-2011, down from 99.3 per cent a year earlier.

Lynette Leong, CEO of CapitaCommercial Trust Management Ltd, revealed that HSBC's triple net lease (that is, HSBC pays for property tax, maintenance and repair) for HSBC Building at Collyer Quay expiring in April this year has been renewed for a seven-year term at a monthly rental rate of $8.50 per square foot, which is about double the expiring rental rate.

One George Street has achieved an occupancy rate of 93.3 per cent at end-December 2011, higher than the 76.9 per cent the trust manager had expected on the assumption that all expiring leases had not been renewed. New tenants secured in the building last year included The Bank of Fukuoka and Ashmore Investment Management (Singapore). Lease renewals were also secured from the likes of Diageo Singapore, Shinhan Bank and Legg Mason Asset Management Singapore.

At Six Battery Road, all of the 93,700 sq ft of space upgraded last year was precommitted at end-2011. Upgrading works will continue on a phased basis till 2013.

Some 20 per cent of Six Battery Road's net lettable area (NLA) will be expiring in 2012, while 12 per cent of One George Street's NLA will be expiring this year.

'While negative rent reversions could continue for some of the trust's office leases expiring in 2012, the downside risk is mitigated by the fact that office space representing only 7.9 per cent of the trust's total portfolio gross rental income is due for renewal in 2012,' said Ms Leong.

'Furthermore, a substantial portion (36 per cent for FY 2011) of the trust's total gross rental income is contributed by retail, and hotel and convention centre income, primarily from the 60 per cent interest in Raffles City Singapore. This additionally limits the trust's exposure to the soft office market conditions,' she added.

CCT's gearing rose to 30.2 per cent as at Dec 31, 2011 from 28.6 per cent a year earlier.

Ms Leong also said that the trust has secured funding to meet its refinancing, having proactively secured borrowings ahead of debt maturities in 2011 and 2012.

Last month, it obtained $450 million in committed unsecured facilities and issued $200 million in medium-term notes. The aggregate $650 million is more than sufficient to refinance CCT's $570 million term loan due in March 2012.

'By then, seven out of nine of the trust's assets (including all its Grade A assets), valued at about $4 billion, will be unencumbered, further enhancing our financial flexibility,' said Ms Leong.




Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: www.businesstimes.com.sg
Publish date: 21/01/12

财富的真相

2012年 01月 05日 07:42
财富的真相
谁说富人总会变得更富?

尽管政客和权威人士的言论措辞激烈,但最富的1%人口几乎不会固定不变,他们也很难实现持续的收入上涨。相反,在我们的经济体中,最富的人是最容易破产的群体。

根据美国国家税务局(Internal Revenue Service)最近的数据,最富的1%人口的总收入──2009年收入超过343,000美元的人──比2007年下跌了30%多。相比之下,最穷的90%人口的平均收入在同期内下跌不到3%。

同时,今年11月美联储(Federal Reserve)的一项研究发现,2007年最富的1%人口中,1/3在2009年不再位居最富的1%人群的行列。

好消息是:尽管如今的财富分布起伏不定,但富人和未来的富人仍可以利用一些保护措施减缓冲击、降低风险。

2009年以来,随着金融市场的反弹,最富的人有可能重获部分失去的财富。然而最新一批数据指出了一个无可辩驳的趋势──我们已经进入了“高β值财富”时代。

在华尔街,“β”是指相对于整体市场的波动性;β值为1.0表示波动性与整体市场持平。科技股和博彩股的β值可能会高于1.5,因为在周期性涨跌中,它们的波幅往往超过整体市场。相比之下,公用事业股的涨跌小于整体市场,它们的β值通常低于1.0。

新富阶层是我们经济体中的高β值人群。由于对金融市场的依赖、高杠杆率和高消费,最富的1%人口的收入波动现在两倍于其他人口。

西北大学(Northwestern University)的乔纳森•A.帕克(Jonathan A. Parker)和安妮特•维辛-乔根森(Annette Vissing-Jorgensen)进行的一项研究发现,最富的1%人口的β值在1982年至2007年间几乎翻了四倍,达到了2.39。最富的0.01%人口的β值为3.96,即使是风险最高的科技股与之相比也显得很安全。经济学家和理财经理称,随着市场的剧烈动荡,富人的β值在近几个月可能会攀升得更高。

为富裕家庭提供服务的Harris myCFO Investment Advisory Services的总裁克雷格•罗林斯(Craig Rawlins)说,“在今天的环境中拥有高β值和在上世纪80年代甚至是90年代拥有高β值不同。人们比以前更容易受坏决策的影响。如今的市场风险更高、波动性更强。”

为超级富豪服务的加利福尼亚心理学家李•豪斯纳(Lee Hausner)说,她有一个她称之为“凤凰”的客户,是一位有大量借款、高消费的房地产开发商和投资者。他在过去10年中曾起起落落两次,资产净值曾一度达到四亿美元,然后全部亏光,然后又达到两亿美元,然后又全部亏光。

她说,“他是一位冲动的冒险者。他所有事都要冒风险。”

对于希望变富并守住财富的冒险者来说,豪斯纳建议要经常退后一步,评估重要决策而不是任由冲动支配。

她说,“有些人赌了一把并发了财。但他们必须意识到,如果他们再赌一把,运气可能就没那么好了。他们需要在再赌一把之前停下来,进行慎重考虑。”

富人财富流失的原因
尽管高β值财富趋势在近30年中一直在增长,但在近年来却显著加速了──其速度足以引起某些金融专家的兴趣。

2003年,私人银行业高管玛丽亚•埃琳娜•拉戈马西诺(Maria Elena Lagomasino)开始研究为何她认识的如此多富人都破产了。企业家、科技巨头、房地产大亨,甚至是以理财能力著称的首席执行长都可能会在这一年中创造了上百万的财富,但在下一年亏个精光。

现任佛罗里达州棕榈滩花园(Palm Beach Gardens)财富管理公司Genspring Family Offices首席执行长的拉戈马西诺说,“这个问题让我着迷。站在胜利巅峰的人怎么可能如此突然地跌落呢?”

当她还是摩根大通私人银行(J.P. Morgan Private Bank)的首席执行长时,她发布了报告《打破常规:提高维持财富的可能性》(Beating the Odds: Improving the 15% Probability of Staying Wealthy),该报告称,在21年中,《福布斯》(Forbes)400富豪榜中只有15%的人始终留在榜上。(死亡导致的下榜比例不到1/3。)

该报告将原因分为五大类:

过度集中。许多富人迅速致富的道路是对一家公司或一种资产豪赌一把,不管是科技创业公司、房地产还是黄金。当这些资产迅速增值时,收益是巨大的。当它们贬值时,也会带走全部财富。

杠杆。债务已经成为帮富人冲上更高财富轨道的火箭燃料,它能放大收益,也能放大亏损。近年来,富人用了比以往更多的债务来最大化投资收益、扩张业务和挥霍消费。然而,他们的公司或收入的意外变化也能将可控制的债务水平变为财富毁灭者。

消费。拉戈马西诺说,即使在最自制的富人中,“有些人也不知道自己究竟花了多少钱。”许多人看了自己的账面净值就认为自己买得起私人飞机或第四套房产。但他们的支出经常超过他们的现金流和收益,这将他们推到了破产悬崖的边上。

“有毒鸡尾酒”。前三个原因往往是彼此相关的,新富人可能会大赌一把,然后借入高额资金投资于一家企业,并根据他们的账面财富进行高消费。当这三个因素同时逆转时,往往会迫使富人以低价卖出资产,这会令他们立即失去巨额财富。

家庭问题。这些问题包括离婚、遗产争夺战和家族企业纠纷。

还有一些是宏观经济原因。在20世纪80年代以前,财富主要来自于继承、石油和私人企业──所有都是相当可预测的和稳定的财富来源。而在20世纪80年代以后,更多高额财富来自于股市。

高管们由于基于股票的收入而致富。企业家们通过首次公开募股或并购买卖公司而致富。而华尔街的银行家、对冲基金经理和私募基金经理通过市场投机而致富。

如何保住财富

那么,投资者和企业家如何保住财富,而不变为高β值的牺牲者呢?

理财经理、心理学家和财务顾问称,高β值财富时代需要新的金融工具和心理工具来创造并维持家族财富。

匹兹堡(Pittsburgh)财富管理公司Greycourt & Co.的主席格雷戈里•柯蒂斯(Gregory Curtis)在工作中接触过一些富贵世家,其中有些家族的财富维持了四、五代之久。他说,家族保住财富的一个秘诀就是将财富分放在两个篮子中:“消费”篮子和“增值”篮子。

他说,家庭应该基本靠消费篮子中的钱生活,这个篮子中应该放入由支付股利的股票、债券和现金等价物组成的分散化流动性资产组合。

增值篮子中应该主要是股票或在公司中的所有权。这个篮子中也可以包括对冲基金、货币和商品投资以及其它投资。

重要的一点是,家庭永远不应该靠“增值”篮子来提供日常消费的资金。

他说,“我们看到的最大风险是资产集中。因此我们认为:‘你的生活开销应该完全由流动性资产组合支持。’这样即使增值篮子中的所有钱都亏光了,也没有关系。”

高β值的富人经常将一半以上的财富投资于单一资产,不管这种资产是一家公司还是一只股票。作为一般法则,理财经理会告诉客户们避免将超过20%-30%的财富投资于单一资产。

限制债务对于避免财务危机也是很关键的。最富的1%人口的债务负担在过去30年中翻了三倍。专家称,家庭债务不应超过家庭资产的25%,但很少有人遵守这一法则。

波士顿的家庭理财室顾问斯蒂芬•马尔季罗斯(Stephen Martiros)说,富裕家庭应该保证长期(是以年而不是月为单位)稳定的信贷额度,以帮助他们应对经济风暴。

他说,“高β值富人面临的真正问题是:‘你能经受住最差情况的冲击吗?’你不会希望自己因为使用杠杆而陷入被迫在最坏的时期卖出资产的境地吧。如果真是这样你就真的遇上麻烦了。”

初创企业的风险

企业家又如何呢?开办公司并将一切赌注押在公司成功上的企业家不愿太快陷入现金不足的状况。根据Facebook最近的估值,联合创始人马克•扎克伯格(Mark Zuckerberg)未来以分散化的名义每卖掉1%股权,就要放弃近10亿美元的未来价值。更不要提这对股东释放出的负面信号了。

然而,理财经理建议全球的扎克伯格们在他们的公司上市后──甚至更早──就应该定期卖掉少量股票。他们可能会失去一些股价上涨机会,但也建立了一张应对股价下跌的重要安全网。

例如,Netflix的首席执行长里德•黑斯廷斯(Reed Hastings)就在多年来定期卖掉Netflix的股票,这是其股票出售计划的一部分。尽管在股价上升期他可能放弃了数百万账面财富,但卖出股票所得到的现金在今年秋天Netflix股价下跌近75%时得到了保护。(当然,许多股东就没这么幸运了。)

与前几代企业家相比,硅谷最新一批科技公司的创建者从2001年的高β值富人财务危机中得到了经验教训,他们将现金回笼的速度更快、金额更高。Groupon最大的股东联合创始人埃里克•莱夫科斯基(Eric Lefkofsky)在上个月公司上市前就从股利和股票销售中获利超过3亿美元。

据提交给监管机构的文件显示,2010年3月,Zynga创始人马克•平卡斯(Mark Pincus)将一小部分股份回售给公司,获得了1.09亿美元。

这些股票售价为每股14美元──高于12月16日该股票10美元的IPO价格。

Harris MyCFO的罗林斯说,“这种私售看来正在增长,为高β值富人提供了落袋为安的机会。”

你的财富β值有多高?

为了算出你的“β”等级──你的财富相对于其他人的波动性指标──请回答以下七个问题。

1、你的总债务与财富净值之比是多少?

低于10%(1分)

10%-20%(2分)

高于20%(3分)

2、你的年支出总额与财富净值之比是多少?

低于3%(1分)

3%-5%(2分)

高于5%(3分)

3、你价值最高的资产占财富净值总额的百分比是多少?

低于10%(1分)

10%-20%(2分)

高于20%(3分)

4、你的总财富中多少比例是非流动性财富──也就是说,投资于无法迅速转换为现金的房屋、公司或投资?

低于10%(1分)

10%-20%(2分)

高于20%(3分)

5、你赌博、投注或买彩票的频率是多少?

从来不或几乎不(1分)

一个月一次(2分)

一个月多次(3分)

6、在社交或商务场合中,你会认为自己是一屋子人当中最聪明的人吗?

从不(1分)

有时(2分)

多数时候或经常(3分)

7、你认为从现在起五年后你的生活方式将是什么样?

更糟(1分)

不确定或相同(2分)

好得多(3分)

得分

7分-10分:低β值

11分-15分:中β值

15分-19分:高β值

高于19分:高β值,即将发生财务危机

Robert Frank

Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 华尔街日报
Publish date: 05/01/12

火燎森: 探討全職炒股風險

探討全職炒股風險 (一) 2010/09/22 21:16
嘉賓:火燎森
主題:投資策略







內容:今集請來充傳奇色彩的散戶-火燎森,一位向「巴菲特借了一千萬元」的散戶!他曾著有一書,名為「我向巴菲特借了第一個1000萬」,侃侃而談自己如何跟從巴菲特「訓身」買入中石油,並於高位沽貨,獲利1000萬元。不過,他是透過各式借貸來籌集資金,風險極高,投資者宜衡量自己能否承受如此高風險。

ource/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: Money Cafe
Publish date: 22/09/10

五问金融大鳄索罗斯



Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 优酷视频
Publish date:14 Jun 2009

李驰眼中的价值投资



Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 优酷视频
Publish date:

李驰:坚定的价值投资者(二)

Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 和讯网
Publish date:2009年07月01日

【2012展望專輯】2012『勝投』投資術

【2012展望專輯】2012『勝投』投資術

( 2012/01/19 10:08 林奇芬 )

「眾人貪婪時,我要恐懼,眾人恐懼時,我要貪婪。」這是股神巴菲特的名言,用在投資市場則是禁得起時空考驗的投資金律。回顧2011年初眾人皆想貪婪,而最終卻讓所有投資人受傷慘重,而進到2012年初,所有人都很恐懼,但貪婪的時刻卻已經不遠了。

Yahoo!奇摩特於總統大選前、後舉行兩次「2012年度台灣展望調查」,深受國際局勢連動的股市走向,並未出現大選慶祝行情,看壞率從選前觀望的37%,選後躍升至逾5成。

其實懂得掌握機會的投資人,今年將是反敗為勝、財富翻倍的重要契機。只要在投資前掌握風向球,擬定好投資因應策略,則即使市場風暴未平,但一樣有獲利的對策。
透過以下四大面向,觀察投資天象:

一,歐債標售是否順利
2011年雖然沒有發生如2008年金融機構倒閉、全球金融市場失序的大災難,但是美國國家信用轉為負向,歐債危機差點導致歐元瓦解,都讓全球投資市場面臨巨大的震撼教育。目前危機尚未完全解除,但因為「問題大到不能不處理」,反而促使各國使盡全力,避免災難引爆。
步入2012年首先仍要面對2到4月的歐洲發債高峰期,這段時間債券若能順利標售、利率也可維持在較低水準,則歐債的問題雖然無法在短期內解決,但至少金融市場的恐慌氣氛,可以大幅紓解。但若債券標售不順利,則小心投資市場還會出現大地震。

二,強勢美元是否反轉
由於美國實施量化寬鬆,印出太多鈔票,再加上政府債務沉重,長期而言,美元仍將呈現貶值走勢。但從2011年8月開始,美元走勢轉強,最主要是在歐債危機下,資金回流美元或購買美國債券,讓美元指數突破81,這也顯示美元仍具有災難貨幣的功能。因此,未來可觀察美元走勢,若美元開始走貶,顯示恐慌氣氛降低,資金也將重回其他市場。

三,各國經濟指標是否觸底回升
2011年第三季開始,各種經濟數據就轉為疲弱,預估第四季的表現也不會太好,但接下來觀察的重點,則在2012年第一季,是否真能觸底。目前美國的表現是相對較好的,12月ISM製造業採購經理人指數大幅上升至53.7,連續三個月保持向上趨勢。歐洲地區的PMI指數則在50以下,顯示景氣走弱,但12月數據有些微的回升,未再繼續破底。而中國11月的PMI指數首度跌破50,但12月則已站回50關卡,未來能否維持還要觀察。 台灣11月景氣領先指標仍往下走,景氣燈號出現第二個黃藍燈,未來不排除出現藍燈的可能。一般預料今年第一季將是重要的觀察點,若第一季的數據沒有大幅惡化,則很可能第一季會是景氣最低點。比較保守的作法,是觀察這些指標不再下跌,且能在觸底後持續回升三個月,應該較能確認景氣沒有進一步惡化,甚至可能開始回升。

四,是否持續寬鬆貨幣政策
目前市場仍在等待美國是否釋出QE3(量化寬鬆),如果未來美國經濟表現順利,則可能不會推出,但美國聯準會利率仍在最低水準。此外,歐洲央行對金融業在短期資金上無限額融通,也算是量化寬鬆的一種。在新興國家中,巴西已經連續二度降息,中國則開始調降存款準備率,這都是資金比較寬鬆的暗示,有助於各國快速度過經濟調整期。

四大投資對策,讓你贏在2012年
雖然2012年上半年仍存在較多變數,但一般預估,在下半年有機會慢慢走出金融陰霾與景氣調整。因此,投資人可採取四個策略,來做好2012年的投資布局。

一,美元轉弱後,可以買進新興市場債券基金與高收益債券基金
在去年下半年投資恐慌期,資金大量流入美債,讓新興市場債券基金與高收益債券基金,都有回檔修正的現象。但由於美國10年期公債殖利率不到2%,處在歷史低點,代表美國公債的價格在歷史高點,若未來美元轉弱,資金將流出美國公債。而這個時候,已經大幅修正的新興市場債與高收益債,將成為資金的新歡,因此,這二類基金將是保守投資人,今年最值得布局的標的。

二,上半年以定時定額,布局新興市場股票基金
雖然上半年仍有政治與經濟的變數不少,但越是股市低檔,越是定時定額投資最好的時點。以前一波2008年金融風暴為例,2009年新興市場許多都有近一倍的漲幅。雖然不知道底部會出現在何時,但在此相對低檔,以定時定額方式買進積極型的基金,最能掌握第一波反彈行情。

穩健投資人可以考慮買進全球新興市場股票基金,或拉丁美洲區域基金,亞洲區域基金。若屬於較積極的投資人,則可以考慮定時定額投資區域型中小基金,上漲的動能更大。此外,經濟面緩步復原的美國股市也值得留意,可以考慮美國中小型基金定時定額投資。但建議先避開歐洲市場與東歐市場,因為,歐洲今年的經濟成長變數較多,可以先觀察一段時間再說。

三,單一國家基金,可買進台灣與中國的ETF。
台股與中國股市,去年在亞洲市場表現居倒數前一、二名,跌幅與歐豬五國差不多,令人跌破眼鏡。其實,台灣與中國的經濟基本面沒那麼差,企業獲利也算穩健,(排除台灣的四大慘業,與中國的營建股、部分作假帳股)。展望新的一年,若中國可持續放鬆銀根,並推動內需市場,二岸間良性合作互動,則大中華區仍將具有成長潛力。

以代表台股的台灣五十(0050)為例,長期的價格約在40元到60元的區間,相對應的是台股6000點到8000點的位置。因此,若能在45元以下買進,賺錢的機會就越高。

同樣,以寶來推出的一檔中國ETF寶滬深(0061)為例,近二年上證指數區間在2200點到3200點中間,寶滬深的價格也大約在14元到20元之間,目前上證指數跌破2300點關卡,寶滬深也落在14元附近,已經接近低點位置,可以開始考慮小量佈局。

四,確認景氣復甦,再加碼投資個股
目前全球經濟雖有成長減緩現象,但大多數的研究機構預測,多認為是成長幅度縮小,還不至於出現大衰退。因此,等經濟景氣面出現更多好消息後,投資人可以開始考慮買進個股,以掌握低檔買進時機。

但根據選前1月初雅虎奇摩所做的調查顯示,大部分投資人對於今年台股的看法多偏向保守,只有16.7%的民眾看好,看壞的高達37.7%,有近一半偏向觀望。選後調查看壞躍升至逾5成。

而根據世新大學1月初所做的e股民情緒指數調查,也顯示投資人情緒處在近二年來的最低檔。不過,民眾的看法往往是股市的反指標,也就是大眾最悲觀的時候,往往就是股市接近落底的時刻了,所以,看到投資人的這些調查,反而讓我對於台股後市更為樂觀。

因此在第一季歐債危機若可紓解,年節假期過後,投資人不彷開始留意今年具有成長題材的個股,包括智慧手機、雲端運用、Ultrabook、LED照明、或是中國內需消費股,都是可以注意的方向。

今年可能還是一個震盪激烈年,投資市場變數也不少,但跟著四大策略做投資,應該可以讓你穩穩賺。

Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: Yahoo!奇摩理財
Publish date: 19/01/12

Have Banks Finally Turned the Corner?




Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: CNBC
Publish date: 20/01/12

藍籌股敗下陣‧低價股攻佔熱門榜



Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 星洲日報
Publish date:21/01/12

海外驚嚇不斷‧封關力保1520‧馬股兔年跌9點

海外驚嚇不斷‧封關力保1520‧馬股兔年跌9點
Created 01/20/2012 - 19:25
(吉隆坡20日訊)歐洲債券拍賣結果理想與美國經濟捎來佳音,帶動馬股兔年以紅盤封關,但因兔年多災多難,始終無法“兔”氣揚眉,全年挫9.16點或0.6%。

農曆新年長假前,投資者意興闌珊,惟德法成功拍賣國債、美國企業財報亮麗,加上申請失業救濟人數降至近4年低點,卻令馬股隨國際股市臨尾大展鴻“兔”。

馬股開盤走高1.33點至1518.14點,在特定藍籌股帶動下一度漲6.17點至1522.98點,終場不僅收覆週四失地,更以起5.85點或0.39%至1522.66點收紅。

全股指數微跌0.4%

儘管如此,兔年空頭大軍一波接一波,上半年日本強震來襲、年中歐債出包、8月遇美債降評、最近歐元區又遇標普“誅九族”,令馬股抗跌力頻頻受考驗,在兔年吐了9.16點,表現明顯遜於金虎年取得高達22.21%或278點的大紅包。

反映整體股市的富時大馬全股指數無法順利保住馬股的抗跌聲譽,兔年微跌0.4%。小型股掀起的輪流炒作風,也始終無法為創業板指數力挽狂瀾,兔年丟失1.1%。

礦物暴跌41%最失落
種植揚7.9%最亮眼

大市步履蹣跚,各指數兵敗如山,礦物指數在金虎年自各領域脫穎而出後,兔年凶多吉少,全年暴跌41.1%,成為全場最失落的領域。

建築和產業指數雙雙因外圍士氣低落、經濟轉型計劃雷聲大雨點小,兔年元氣大傷,連原本備受看好的銀行股也慘遭屠殺。

至於消費品指數,因抗跌屬性受熱捧,而種植指數也隨原產品價翻轉頹勢一枝獨秀,是全場表現最亮眼的領域,兔年取得7.9%的斬獲。

分析員普遍認為,歐美經濟問題對馬股的影響大,投資者因外圍的不確定因素忐忑不安,兔年表現因此跌多起少,但相對區域,馬股兔年表現不俗,仍在前3名以內。

中港台三國
兔年封關報喜

亞洲股市20日兔年封關報喜,中國封關,兩市小幅作收,上海指數收漲23.04點,報2319.12點;深圳指數也漲13.48點,報861.15點作收。中國股市封關收紅,加上歐債疑慮暫獲緩解,美國企業財報樂觀,香港恆生指數封關奮力上漲0.84%,以20110.37點收市,站上20,000點大關,讓全年淡慘的兔年有一個好的收尾。

之前台灣股市在18日為農曆春節封關前最後一個交易日,最後一盤台股拉尾盤,指數小漲12.61點或0.17%,兔年封關日以7,233.69點作收,成交量擴大至1,126億元(台幣),保住了連續第14年封關日收紅紀錄,不過兔年台股共下跌1911.66點。

大選風險潛伏
馬股料難飛龍在天

“水龍”降臨,馬股在兔年受壓後能否生龍活虎?幾率恐怕是50:50,但整體表現難逃震盪劫數,大馬潛在大選風險更是水龍年不容忽視的因素。

龍年開關料難龍飛鳳舞

此外,歐美近日傳來經濟與政策等利好,水龍年的首兩週料有一番作為,但因龍年的首個交易日交易商可能還在放假,馬股龍年開關難龍飛鳳舞。

肯格納研究副研究主管陳建堯表示,若外圍情況未惡化,兔年平穩封關的動力仍在,惟投資者可能在農曆新年間保持觀望,令馬股難龍精虎猛,月內或窄幅波動,小型股反而大行其道。

達投資管理公司投資經理林治彣也認為,下週的整體交投料淡靜,估計至後個週一才恢復元氣。

“無論如何,全球基金的分布均勻,短期內馬股應該不會有太大的變動,技術層面論,馬股農曆新年期間的較強的阻力水平為1550點,立即扶持點是1500點。”

至於龍年的全年表現,分析員的看法分歧,先盛後衰或先跌後起,能否創新高?投資者可能需貼緊國內外局勢,包括全國大選的風向。

上半年料跌多升少

林治彣認為,龍年上半年可能因各國經濟問題的懸而未決大幅波動,尤其3至4月,歐盟債券屆滿及其他國家選舉等消息都將左右馬股情緒,上半年料跌多升少。

“龍年創新高的動力難期,主要是各國推動經濟成長的目標不強,馬股受激勵的因素有限。”

不過,Areca資本首席執行員黃德明表示,歐元區17國財長週一開會討論歐洲穩定機制(ESM)協議草案、美國就業數據不錯,消費者信貸有回升跡象,料增添美國經濟成長動力,皆有望激勵區域股市,因而看好馬股表現。

“歐元債務危機的風險其實已反映在市場中,即使之後節外生枝,也料不會大幅衝擊馬股士氣。”

他相信,若歐元區長期方案一出爐,全球股市勢必回彈,馬股屆時也有望創新高,預見馬股上半年隨中美經濟反彈衝上1600點,但下半年走勢難預測,隨時可能因其他紛擾回調至1500點。

他坦言,大選吉日一日未定,市場投資心態不穩,若沒有一方把握大部份議席,勢必影響外資。

基於水龍年走勢難捉摸且可能有明顯差異,投資者也必須懂得趨吉避凶,才能安然渡過險境,包括隨時機調整策略、採抗跌上策。

林治彣提到,水龍年紛擾不斷,投資者應保持機警,隨機應對;陳建堯建議續部署抗跌股;黃德明則推薦股息潛力的大型股。

基於天氣惡化限制原產品供應量有望推高棕油價,他特看好種植股趁龍年大顯龍靈,同時隨政府積極推動採油活動,看好油氣股在龍年有一番作為。

Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 星洲日報
Publish date:21/01/12

57夢想街57號 20120111 胡立阳-股市地心引力




Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: youtube
Publish date: 11/01/2012

CMT FY11 Results Review: Stable growth with potential upside (DMG)

CMT FY11 Results Review: Stable growth with potential upside
(BUY, S$1.745, TP S$2.03)
4Q11 results within expectations. CMT reported 4Q11 DPU of 2.30S¢, bringing the whole year’s DPU to 9.37S¢ (+1.4% YoY). NPI increased by 4.8% YoY while S$5.1m income from CRCT has been retained for future distribution in anticipation of uncertainty in 2H12. The improved performance in FY11 was mainly contributed from the acquisitions of Clarke Quay and Iluma together with higher rental income from existing malls. We raised our DPU estimates to account for additional income from the AEI at Clarke Quay. Upgrade to BUY as CMT is currently trading at a spread of 4.3% vs the historical mean spread of 3.0%. Our TP of S$2.03 represents a spread of 3.7%, posting a potential upside of 16.3%.

AEI projects to be completed by FY12. The asset enhancement for JCube, Iluma and the Atrium are scheduled to be completed in 1Q, 2Q and 4Q12 respectively. AEI works to optimise NLA at Clarke Quay is scheduled to commence in 2Q12 and completed by 3Q12. This project with capex at S$15.6m, ROI of 13% is expected to increase gross revenue by S$2.7m.

Uncertain outlook on retail rental rate in FY12. During 4Q11, the average rental rate for prime Orchard Road and Suburban stayed constant at S$31.60 psf/mth and S$29.75 psf/mth respectively. Going forward, amid the prolonged uncertainty in the global economic arena, we believe Orchard Road prime rents could see moderate downward adjustments, particularly after the 1Q12. On the other hand, suburban rents are expected to remain stable as resident consumers will still patronize the malls for basic necessities even if there is a downturn in the economy.

Excellent management and concentration of portfolio in suburban. We continue to recognize CMT’s impeccable mall management expertise and stable outlook on suburban malls (~76% of portfolio in suburban). With CMT currently trading at 4.3% spread vs the historical mean spread of 3.0%, our TP posts a potential upside of 16.3%.


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: DMG & Partners Research
Publish date: 20/01/12

解码财商-谢国忠的2012



Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 优酷视频
Publish date:08/01/12

BofA Swings to Quarterly Profit as Lender Builds Capital (3) : Bloomberg

BofA Swings to Quarterly Profit as Lender Builds Capital (3)
2012-01-19 15:02:27.554 GMT


(Updates with stock price, analyst’s comment on loss after one-time items, starting in the sixth paragraph.)

By Hugh Son
Jan. 19 (Bloomberg) -- Bank of America Corp., the second- largest U.S. lender, swung to a fourth-quarter profit as thecompany sold assets and built capital faster than expected.

Net income of $1.99 billion, or 15 cents a diluted share,compared with a loss of $1.24 billion, or 16 cents, a yearearlier, according to a statement today from the Charlotte,North Carolina-based firm. While results were boosted by one-time gains on asset sales and reserve releases, the stockadvanced more than 5 percent as investors focused on thestronger balance sheet.

Chief Executive Officer Brian T. Moynihan, 52, is cutting holdings, expenses and staff while raising capital to meet demands from regulators for a larger cushion against losses. So far, $50 billion in assets are gone, and Moynihan’s Project New BAC will eliminate at least 30,000 jobs as the firm seeks to save $5 billion annually. He’s also aiming to quell disputes over faulty mortgages that have cost the bank about $40 billion.

“The biggest shock in the quarter was, nobody improves their Tier 1 common ratio by 121 points in 90 days,” said Thomas Brown, CEO of Second Curve Capital LLC and a Bloomberg contributing editor, in an interview on Bloomberg Television’s “In the Loop,” with Betty Liu. “It’s going to survive and its capital ratios are a lot stronger today than we all thought yesterday.” Brown has owned Bank of America warrants and shares.

More Capital
Tier 1 capital, a measure of ability to absorb losses, surged to 9.86 percent from 8.65 percent in the third quarter.In December, the lender indicated capital would improve to about 9.2 percent. Revenue gained 11 percent to $25.1 billion. For the year, Bank of America said it earned $1.4 billion, compared with a $2.2 billion loss in 2010, as revenue dropped 15 percent.

Bank of America’s stock rose 36 cents to $7.16 as of 9:42 a.m. in New York, leading the Dow Jones Industrial Average and KBW Bank Index, and gained as much as 7.2 percent during the session.

Moynihan cited a “gradually improving economy” for a 13 percent rise in commercial and industrial loan balances from a year earlier. The consumer real estate unit posted a $1.46 billion loss, narrower than a year earlier. Global banking and markets reported a net loss of $433 million, compared with net income of $669 million in the year-ago quarter. Revenue in the unit declined 31 percent, primarily driven by lower sales and trading revenue and investment banking fees.

One-Time Items

The quarter’s results were skewed by one-time pretax gains including $2.9 billion from selling most of its remaining stake in China Construction Bank Corp., $1.2 billion on an exchange of preferred securities, and $1.2 billion on sales of debt securities. The provision for credit losses fell 43 percent to $2.9 billion, or about $2.2 billion less than a year earlier.

Expenses tied to bad mortgages included $1.5 billion for litigation and $263 million for buying back soured home loans from investors. A year earlier, the bank booked a $2 billion impairment at the home-loan unit.

“There’s a lot of one-time charges and gains in there,” Paul Miller, an analyst at FBR Capital Markets in Arlington, Virginia, said in an interview on Bloomberg Television. “On a core basis, it looks like they came in below our numbers. On one side people like the capital position, but the earnings side to us, it was kind of weak.”

Stripped of one-time items, the results add up to a quarterly loss of about 18 cents a share, according to a research note from David Trone at JMP Securities LLC in New York, who has a “market perform” recommendation on the shares. “We would expect performance to fade today as investors process the segment results, which were generally disappointing.”

Asset Sales

Bank of America is selling assets deemed risky by regulators and stockpiling earnings to comply with new international rules on capital meant to protect against a future financial crisis. The company may have to retain more than $40 billion in earnings by 2019. That figure could drop if the bank unloads more of its riskiest assets, said Jerry Dubrowski, a spokesman for the firm.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. supplanted the bank as the biggest U.S. lender by assets last year. Bank of America’s divestments during the year included 23.5 billion shares of China Construction, a Canadian credit-card business and private-equity stakes in the biggest U.S. Pizza Hut franchisee and hospital operator HCA Holdings Inc.

Second Place

The bank doesn’t need to be the biggest, according to Moynihan, who said in September he wants his company to be more focused. Moynihan also decided to scale back the firm’s mortgage operations, shuttering a correspondent unit that accounted for half of loan volume in the first six months of 2011.

By doing so, the lender will accumulate fewer mortgage servicing contracts -- one of the assets it’s been selling because the new regulations compel banks to hold more capital if they own riskier assets.

Rivals may already be taking up the slack in mortgage lending. Wells Fargo & Co., the No. 4 U.S. bank by assets, posted a 20 percent rise in fourth-quarter income to $4.11 billion as new home loans rose 35 percent from the prior three months. U.S. Bancorp, ranked fifth by deposits, said profit advanced 39 percent to $1.35 billion.

Trading Declines

Earnings dropped at the biggest New York-based banks as trading slumped in the last three months of 2011. Earnings fell 23 percent to $3.73 billion at JPMorgan, while Citigroup Inc., the No. 3 bank, said income slid 11 percent to $1.17 billion.

Moynihan’s success may hinge on how well he deflects future costs of refunds, writedowns and lawsuits stemming from faulty mortgages and foreclosures -- most of them inherited in the 2008 takeover of Countrywide Financial Corp. They total about $40 billion since 2007, and another $12 billion to $32 billion may lie ahead, according to a Citigroup estimate.

Those expenses helped send the lender’s stock plunging 58 percent in 2011, the worst showing in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Bank of America’s 22 percent gain this year through yesterday to $6.80 has led the 30-company Dow as investors bet that an improving U.S. economy will buoy earnings.


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: Bloomberg
Publish date:19/01/12

头脑风暴:2012钱途何方



Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 新浪视频
Publish date: 16/01/12

Buffett Ups Stake in Tesco After Profit Warning

Buffett Ups Stake in Tesco After Profit Warning
Published: Friday, 20 Jan 2012 | 2:01 AM ET Text Size
By: Reuters

Billionaire U.S. investor Warren Buffett has lifted his stake in Britain's Tesco in a move likely to be seen as a vote of confidence in Chief Executive Phil Clarke after a profit warning from the world's No.3 retailer last week.

Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway had increased its stake in the British supermarket group from 3.21 percent to 5.08 percent as of Jan. 13, a regulatory filing showed on Thursday.

That's a day after Tesco [TSCO-LN 329.00 2.00 (+0.61%) ] warned trading profit for its 2012-13 financial year would be flat as it steps up investment in its home market following its worst underlying Christmas sales performance for decades.

Dubbed the "Sage of Omaha" for a string of investments that have propelled him to number three on Forbes' 2011 list of the world's wealthiest men, Buffett's share dealings are closely watched in financial markets.

After buying into Tesco in 2006, Buffett has gradually increased his holding.

Last year he caused a stir by saying Tesco should "look hard" at its loss-making Fresh & Easy chain in the United States, though he also said he remained supportive of the business.

Tesco shares dropped as much as 19 percent on Jan. 12 and hit a 34-month low of 311 pence on Monday.

Following the news that Buffett had upped his stake in the retailer, Tesco stock was up 0.5 percent at 322.5 pence.

Tesco has come under fire from some investors after news emerged that UK chief operating officer Noel Robbins sold around 200,000 pounds ($308,000) worth of shares eight days before its profit warning.

Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts:CNBC.com
Publish date: 20/01/12

Singapore Developers: Cooling period begins (DMG)

Singapore Developers: Cooling period begins (NEUTRAL)

URA released private residential sales data for Dec 11. A total of 632 private residential units (670 units incl. ECs) have been sold by developers during the month, -63%MoM and - 53%YoY. Overall 2011 sales have kept pace with 2010, bringing total sales to 16,367 units for 12M11 (19,304 units incl. ECs), +0.5%YoY. Unsurprisingly the high-end segment saw sales slowing down to a trickle with only 35 transactions in the Core Central Region (CCR) which may suggest impact of the ABSD taking effect. The mass segment continues to dominate sales with c.79% of property sales in the Outside of Central Region (OCR), in line with recent months previously. The Dec 11 property sales data is in line with our view of a significant drop in transaction volume in the near term, which is likely to be a drag on developers’ stock prices. The cooling period for residential property purchases has begun and we look to the property sales in Feb 12 for further takeaways post CNY. Neutral stance maintained for developers with OUE downgraded to NEUTRAL on valuations.

Quiet month within expectations. Dec 11 saw total developer sales of 670 units (632 units excluding ECs), -63%MoM and -53%YoY. This brings overall sales for 2011 to 16,367 units (19,304 units incl. ECs), +0.5%YoY. This latest data point suggest the cooling period for residential property purchases has begun and we look to the property sales in Feb 12 for further takeaways post CNY.

ABSD taking effect? Unsurprisingly the high-end segment saw sales slowing down to a trickle with only 35 transactions in the Core Central Region (CCR) which suggest the ABSD targeting foreign buying may already be taking effect for the high-end segment. The mass segment continues to dominate sales with c.79% of property sales in the Outside of Central Region (OCR), in line with sales previous recent months. The Archipelago project at Bedok Reservoir Road was the top selling project in the month with 103 units sold (577 units, ASP S$1,118 psf).

Overhang to persist for developers, maintain NEUTRAL. The respective TPs for the developers under coverage are lowered by c.2%-7% with residential price declines of c.12-20% and c.5-10% for FY12 and FY13 respectively now factored into our RNAV estimates. We believe much of the negatives in the physical market have been priced in, but share price re-rating catalysts lacking in the midst of a physical price correction this year as our thesis for NEUTRAL on the sector. We continue to expect overhang from slower primary residential sales as well as policy concerns to be a drag on residential developers’ share price performance. Maintain SELL recommendation on CDL with a revised TP of S$7.98 and downgrade OUE to Neutral on valuations.


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: DMG & Partners Research
Publish date: 17/01/12

Buck up please! We're getting edgy

Buck up please! We're getting edgy


2012/01/21


JITTERS IN ASIA: Concern over what is or is not happening in the EU seems to be affecting trade numbers

WILL the European Union (EU) please stand up. We, in Asia, are getting mighty jittery on what is happening in Europe. Actually, our fears are more on what is not happening in Europe.

I get this type of feedback from most businessmen and big-time stock market punters.

I don't blame them as the crisis in Europe seems to be getting deeper, and it is affecting Asia - Malaysia included.

Just look at the trade numbers announced recently by the Minis-try of International Trade and Industry.

Malaysia's export growth eased to 8.0 per cent year-on-year in November due to softening in demand from traditional markets such as Singapore, Thailand and the US.

Year-on-year in October, the growth was 15.8 per cent, helped by stronger demand for palm oil, rubber and energy products.

Falling exports are a major concern as we are an export-oriented country and exports are our major economic driver.

The December figures are not out yet, but analysts seem to think that the die has been cast for 2012.

Yes, 2012, which Hollywood says according to the ancient Mayans could be the end of it all, doesn't look to be promising.

Four months ago, UBS bank had cut Malaysia's gross domestic growth (GDP) forecast for this year to 3.0 per cent from 5.0 per cent.

This has been followed up by downcast forecast by other respectable institutions.

For example, HSBC reduced its 2012 GDP forecast for Malaysia to 3.7 per cent from 5.0 per cent recently.

Most analysts are expecting growth to come from the domestic side, which means Putrajaya will have to keep pump-priming the economy.

But how much can Putrajaya do, and is it wise to do too much too soon?

These are the questions the administrators will have to ponder, while the philosophical ones would likely advise one not to swim against the tide.

Given the gloomy outlook, why is the research side of banks expecting the stock market to trade in the 1,600 level by year-end?

Could it be that they are expecting Europe to get its house in order by then?

But before the gain, there could be plenty of pain in the marketplace.

Sentiment on the ground is that Greece will default this year, with the question being if it will be an orderly or disorderly default.

The year 2012 might not be the year the world collapses, but it could be the year the euro currency is no longer treated with baby gloves.

Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: www.btimes.com.my
Publish date: 21/01/12

招商银行:配股提升核心资本充足率

招商银行:配股提升核心资本充足率
2012-01-21 01:00:06 来源: 第一财经日报(上海) 

2011年银行股整体走势跑赢大盘,银行股的春天是否已经来临?作为基本面最佳的上市银行之一,招商银行(600036.SH)的投资机会不得不关注。

优良的资产结构

“市场对于银行股最悲观、分歧最大的时刻已经过去了。”上海一位私募基金经理陈先生在接受第一财经日报《财商》采访时表示,2012年银行股的投资机会可能还是在价值回归,事实上,在2011年下半年已经体现出来了。

“2011年上半年市场担心银行平台贷款还债问题,这个时点过去之后,银行股的机会已经到来。”陈先生表示,未来除了平台贷款问题之外,银行业长期面临的问题是利率市场化。“如果利率市场化逐步实施的话,能够在这个过程中胜出的应该就是招商银行和民生银行(600016.SH)。”

“目前国内已经具备利率市场化的环境,监管部门也确实有意对利率市场化进行尝试。”中投顾问金融行业研究员边晓瑜也对记者表示,如果未来利率市场化,根据招商银行的优势,从中胜出并不困难。

中国人民银行行长周小川早在2010年12月17日发表的《关于推进利率市场化改革的若干思考》的讲话稿中就指出,目前利率市场化的条件已经基本具备。中国人民银行1月12日也表示,利率市场化的条件基本具备,将考虑继续推进。不过,在此过程中,将充分考虑当前国内外经济金融形势,以及各方面的条件和影响因素。

陈先生指出,招商银行和民生银行在利率市场化过程中最大的优势有两方面,一是贷款的定价能力;另一个是中间业务非息业务占比很大。“由于民生银行的企业文化偏激进,在风险控制方面不如招商银行,从这个角度说,招商银行的投资更为安全。”

“招商银行最大的竞争优势表现在优良的资产结构和业务优势方面。”边晓瑜认为,再加上当地网点多、客户群体优质、服务好、方便快捷等优势都有助于其未来发展。

二次战略转型效果良好

众所周知,五六年前,在国内商业银行仍多以批发业务为主之时,招商银行就制定了以零售银行业务为主的经营战略调整目标,并进行了相应的资产负债结构调整。这种资产负债结构调整已经为招商银行带来了“丰厚回报”。2009年,招商银行又提出了以资本消耗获得高回报率的二次转型目标,逐步实现内涵集约化经营。

自从招商银行进行二次战略转型之后,目前整体效果良好,去年三季度招商银行息差跃至上市银行第一位。根据招商银行去年三季报,公司三季度报表披露的并表净息差为3.12%,环比上升0.12个百分点;母公司净息差3.20%,环比也上升0.12个百分点。

边晓瑜指出,招商银行息差跃至第一位表明招商银行在信贷中议价能力提升,主要是因为去年央行多次上调存贷款基准利率和存款准备金率,导致信贷日趋紧张,受此影响银行的净利息收入增长较快。

此外,招商银行之前已经公告配股方案,每10股配售不超过2.2股的比例向全体股东配售,A股和H股配股比例相同,此次配股融资总额最高不超过人民币350亿元。海通证券指出,配股融资计划将使得招商银行的资本充足率和核心资本充足率提升2个百分点至13%和9.7%的水平,满足未来规模扩张需求。

海通证券2011年年底的报告中预测,假设2012年完成配股,预计公司2011~2013年EPS分别为1.63元、1.56元(摊薄后)和1.78元,对应动态PE分别为7.08倍、6.07倍、5.32倍。6个月目标价14元,对应2012年PE为9倍。


陈先生指出,对于招商银行最大的担忧在于管理层的变动。“中国目前的状况是银行比银行家多,银行由于是杠杆经营,对管理质量的要求很高。从长远来看,如果未来马蔚华三年任期满之后离开招商银行的话,这将会对其产生重大影响。当然,短期内这种风险并不存在。”

招商银行

市盈率:8.05倍

市净率:1.76倍

总市值:2701.39亿元

流通市值:2211.80亿元

所在行业:银行

业绩预告:暂无

责任编辑:NF045(本文来源:第一财经日报 作者:刘田

Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 网易
Publish date: 21/01/12

KrisAssets plans REIT exercise

The Star Online > Business
Saturday January 21, 2012
KrisAssets plans REIT exercise

By ANGIE NG
angie@thestar.com.my

PETALING JAYA: KrisAssets Holdings Bhd is likely to inject its two retail assets in Mid Valley City the Mid Valley Megamall and The Gardens shopping mall into a retail real estate and investment trust (REIT) this year.

An industry source said the company had already engaged a merchant bank to look into the REIT exercise.

“The two assets have an estimated total asset value of close to RM4bil which makes KrisAssets a strong candidate to sponsor a REIT to unlock the value of its assets for its shareholders,” an analyst with a local brokerage told StarBizWeek.

The Mid Valley Megamall, which opened in 1999, has a net lettable area of 1.7 million sq ft on 5 floors that are occupied by about 400 stores. It also has a convention centre and two hotels Cititel and Boulevard. Its retail space is 100% occupied and commands average rental rates of RM10.50 to RM10.60 per sq ft.

The Gardens at Mid Valley City, which opened in September 2007, is the second phase of Mid Valley City. The Gardens contains a high-end shopping mall with branded labels. Its 830,000 sq ft of retail space is about 97% occupied with average rental rates of RM9.40.

The analyst said KrisAssets would be able to take advantage of the low prevailing tax structure accorded to REITs.

The REIT would be exempted from corporate tax if it distributes at least 90% of its total annual income to unit holders.

He said retail REITs had proven to be popular among the investing public but good retail assets had become a scarce commodity now.

Financing for such REITs was still available and the onus was on the sponsor companies to plan for more holistic retail projects that could cater to the changing needs of city folks, he added.

Another bank-backed analyst said the strong market response to the recent listing of Pavilion REIT, which has been oversubscribed by about 28 times, as well as the yield compression on select well-managed REITs including CapitaMall Trust, could have triggered KrisAssets' plan to expedite its REIT plan.

“Furthermore, in an environment where bank interest rates are expected to remain flat at best, we expect sustained buying interests on the REITs. This means that the company's parent, IGB Corp, which owns 75% of KrisAssets, would be able to extract generous valuations for its assets by divesting them to the REIT,” he added.

He said the REIT would be able to raise enough funds for IGB to undertake a mixed development project in London. IGB is said to be bidding for the project in west London, believed to be its first development project there.

In a recent report, RHB Research said it was positive on retail REITs although on average, they offered slightly lower yields compared with other sub-segment REITs.

“A strategic combination of asset acquisitions, asset-enhancement initiatives and creative events to drive shopper footfalls is crucial to deliver sustainable distribution per unit (DPU) growth.

“Retail REITs offer the highest earnings per unit (EPU) and DPU growth within our coverage. The office segment continues to experience massive oversupply, while industrial production is generally more sensitive to GDP growth.

“Apart from buying for the REIT's yield, investors should also ride on the rising valuations of scarced quality retail properties,” the report noted.

DTZ Research noted that retail REITs were subject to macro-economic risk and any downturn in the economy would have an impact on their performance.

“Notwithstanding the cautious consumer spending, the outlook for the retail sector remains positive with sales growth forecast to move upwards to 6.5% in 2012 from 6.0% for 2011,” it added.



Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: The Star Online
Publish date: 21/01/12

The task ahead for DRB-Hicom

The Star Online > Business
Saturday January 21, 2012
The task ahead for DRB-Hicom

Proton will prove a tough – but not impossible – nut to crack

DRB-Hicom Bhd has a history with Proton Holdings Bhd. That may or may not be a good thing but serves as a good reminder to DRB-Hicom that Proton is not an easy venture to handle.

After its 10th year of operation, in 1995, control of Proton went from government-owned Hicom Holdings to the Diversified Resources Bhd (DRB) group founded and owned by the late Tan Sri Yahya Ahmad who bought a 32.9% stake, just short of the trigger point that would have required a general offer. Eventually the group was renamed DRB-Hicom Bhd.

Some two years later, in March 1997, Yahya died in a late-night helicopter crash en route from Kuala Lumpur to central Pahang when he wanted to visit his ailing mother who had taken a turn for the worse.

DRB-Hicom was then in the midst of restructuring operations at Proton and the burden moved to the shoulders of Yahya’s long-time business associate and key executive Tan Sri Mohd Saleh Sulong.

Over three years later, in December 2000, under the stewardship of Saleh, DRB-Hicom sold its 25.8% stake in Proton to national oil giant Petroliam Nasional Bhd (Petronas) for RM981mil or RM7 per share as part of its restructuring process. This was billed a rescue of sorts by the Government of the DRB-Hicom group which was then ailing.

In a circular to shareholders in September 2000, DRB-Hicom said in its rationale for the sale of its stake in Proton that to remain competitive in the car industry, substantial capital outlay would be required for future plant upgrading and continuous research and development work.

“Competition is keen, especially in the passenger car segment as automotive companies are continuously striving to produce innovative models with cutting-edge technology to meet customers’ demand,” noted DRB-Hicom in the circular.

That was admission by DRB-Hicom then that it did not have the capacity to take Proton further. Petronas’ stake was shuffled among other government agencies and eventually the bulk of it came to Khazanah National Bhd.

Yahya was reported to have been hand-picked by then Prime Minister Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad to take over Proton in 1995 from Government control because he was impressed with the way Yahya’s DRB group, an assembler of different marques, was able to come up with new models.

Proton’s management then, under managing director, Datuk Mohd Nadzmi Mohd Salleh - its current chairman - was said to be resistant to introducing new models because it would mean smaller number of cars produced and reduced economies of scale, already a problem because Proton was and is a small scale manufacturer.

Yahya’s initial efforts focused on producing different models with different looks. In addition to Mitsubishi, he also collaborated with Citroen to make a car from an outdated Citroen model, called Proton Tiara here, which gained notoriety for unreliability.

While the number of models proliferated during Yahya’s and subsequently Saleh’s time, the quality took a dip especially when Proton turned the screws on the vendors to cut their prices to increase its own profitability.

Eventually the then DRB-Hicom group exited the national car business when it sold its major stake to Petronas.

In 2006, control of DRB-Hicom passed to Tan Sri Syed Mokhtar Al-Bukhary through a purchase of a controlling block by one of his companies. As he did 17 years ago, Mahathir has openly backed Proton’s sale to DRB-Hicom again.

But market forces must prevail and Khazanah must sell its 42.7% stake in Proton for the best price, in this case RM5.50 a share, to the company it judges as the best one to take Proton forward. It is good too that DRB-Hicom will make a general offer to all other shareholders, which may take the total cost for Proton to some RM3bil so that minority shareholders have a choice to either stay or go depending on their take on Proton.

For DRB-Hicom, it is a massive task that it faces. What the Malaysian public wants are good-looking, reliable and economical cars which can stand the test of time, all to be sold for decent, competitive price, akin to the first Saga built with Mitsubishi’s help.

Model proliferation is a big no as well as squeezing vendors to bring costs down. One goes against scale economics, the other depresses quality. In-house development of engines and platforms will be costly to say the least.

Proton needs true manufacturing capability and international competitiveness – that means at some point in time it needs a strong alliance, including equity tie-up with a major big-name manufacturer.

DRB-Hicom’s best bet is of course Volkswagen with which it has business arrangements. But VW will drive a hard bargain even though it is looking for a strong presence in South-East Asia, one of the few areas where it is under-represented.

One hopes that DRB-Hicom’s hands are not tied too tightly by politics when it comes to this, as was Khazanah’s when a deal with VW was aborted in 2006 at the last minute.

It’s a heavy burden on DRB-Hicom’s shoulders. Shortcuts and short-term solutions won’t work. You need a radical change at Proton; you need an alliance. Otherwise, we may see the government having to take over Proton yet again.

·P Gunasegaram notes that the Proton saga, as in story, will turn 30 next year.


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: The Star Online
Publish date: 21/01/12

CMMT’s two new assets boost FY11 net profit by 64%

The Star Online > Business
Saturday January 21, 2012
CMMT’s two new assets boost FY11 net profit by 64%

KUALA LUMPUR: Capitamalls Malaysia Trust’s net profit for the financial year ended Dec 31 (FY11) rose 64% to RM179.81mil with revenue surging 143% to RM230.89mil.

The strong set of financial results was due the two additional assets which were added to CMMT’s portfolio, with the acquisitions of Gurney Plaza Extension and East Coast Mall, it said in a statement to Bursa Malaysia yesterday.

“Both assets and the various asset enhancement works have contributed positively to CMMT’s bottom line as reflected in its better-than-forecast first full-year results since listing on July 16, 2010,” it said.

For the fourth quarter, CMMT made a net profit of RM45.1mil, up from RM28.1mil a year earlier.

Of the net profits, CMMT said it had distributed RM118.25mil to its unitholders in FY11. In the latest reported fourth quarter, it will declare RM32.82mil to its unitholders.

It had yesterday just declared an income distribution of 1.14 sen per unit (of which 0.98 sen per unit is taxable and 0.16 sen per unit is tax exempt in the hands of unitholders) which will be paid on March 8.

CMMT’s gearing ratio was also reduced slightly to 28.7% in its fourth quarter from 33.3% in the third quarter while its net debt to earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation cover ratio had also been reduced to 5.7 from 6.0 in the respective quarterly periods, it said in the statement.

The malls parked under this real estate investment trust (REIT) – Gurney Plaza, Sungai Wang Plaza, The Mines, and the East Coast Mall – saw average yield returns of 6.7% in 2011.

It had also conducted a revaluation of its properties in accordance to guidelines issued by the Securities Commission and Bursa Malaysia and had recorded a total revaluation surplus of RM14.7mil which was reflected in the balance sheets of CMMT’s latest set of financial results.

“In the prospectus it was stated that the fair value of the real estate assets will be determined semi-annually based on internal valuation or independent professional valuation.

“All valuations are in accordance with the valuation requirements as stipulated in the REITs guidelines,” it said.

Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: The Star Online
Publish date: 21/01/12

2012-0117-57金錢爆(擦鞋童理論預告 台股天國近了)









Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: youtube
Publish date: 17/01/12

CBD-office-rents-drop



Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: www.channelnewsasia.com/video/
Publish date: 19/01/12

Technics : New engines to sustain growth momentum (KE)

Technics Oil & Gas Limited
Share price S$0.865
52-week price range $0.795-1.05
Dividend per share / yield: S$0.12 / 13.9%
Price-to-earnings: 8.9x

Up-to-date in 60 seconds
Background: Technics Oil & Gas is a full-service integrator of compression systems and process modules for the global offshore oil and gas sector. It designs and fabricates modules that are integrated to form the operating system in offshore production. The group operates two yards in Singapore and Batam.

Recent developments: Technics recently announced that it intends to spin off its subsidiaries in the contract engineering segment. They are Norr Systems Pte Ltd and Wecom Engineering Pte Ltd, both specialising in the marine industry business. Pending further approval, the group will seek a listing of its 51%-owned Norr and 54.65%-owned Wecom Engineering on the Gretai Securities Market of Taiwan (GTSM).

Our view
Strong contribution from subsidiaries. Based on our understanding, subsidiaries Norr and Wecom accounted for approximately 25% of Technics’ overall net profit (or about $5-6m) in FY11/12. Hence, management is of the view that both companies have attained sufficient scale to justify a separate listing, which may, in turn, result in value enhancement for shareholders.

New engines to sustain growth momentum. The proposed listing will also help to provide greater clarity for credit profiling for overseas financial institutions wishing to lend against the credit of Norr and the Wecom Engineering. More importantly, it will enable the two companies to independently set their own business direction and growth strategies, as well as to garner the necessary financial resources to fund their respective investment plans.

Unlocking of intrinsic value. Technics currently trades at about 8.9x historical PER. Depending on market conditions at the time of listing, its spin-off subsidiaries may be able to fetch a higher valuation of up to 15x PER. This implies a combined value of over S$80m, or almost 43% of Technics’ current market capitalisation. We thus expect a re-rating of the stock to reflect its total embedded value.

Perhaps another special dividend? The new listing is expected to take place only in the first half of next year. If successful, there is a strong likelihood of a special dividend payout, provided the group does not embark on any major acquisition. For FY Sep12, a DPS of $0.08 can be expected, which still translates to an attractive yield of 9.2%.



Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: Kim Eng Research
Publish date: 17/01/12

K-REIT: 4Q11: Digesting Ocean Financial Centre (UOBKH)

K-REIT Asia – Singapore
HOLD (Maintained)
Share Price S$0.895
Target Price S$0.95
Upside +6.1%
(Previous TP S$1.05)

Results
• Results in line with expectations. K-REIT Asia (K-REIT) reported a DPU of 1.40 cents, down 18% yoy due to the impact of the 17-for-20 rights issue in 4Q11 and because Ocean Financial Centre (OFC) only contributed income for two weeks in the quarter. The results were in line with expectations, with 2011 DPU representing 97% of our full-year forecast.

• Acquisition of OFC fairly valued. In 4Q11, K-REIT acquired a 87.51% stake in OFC for S$2,013m or S$2,380psf of NLA, excluding income support of S$170m. The acquisition was financed through a 17-for-20 renounceable rights issue which raised S$983m, with the balance of the S$602.6m acquisition cost financed through debt. The deal was fairly valued compared to similar office market transactions in the range of S$2,300-2,500psf, although the timing could have been better.

• Gearing of 42% is a concern as it leaves little additional debt headroom. Management has indicated that K-REIT would maintain its debt rating if gearing remains below 45%. Although this is still well within the 60% gearing limit for S-REITs, a drop in office property values in a downturn could trigger additional equity fund-raising.

Stock Impact
• Highest exposure to Grade-A office assets in Singapore. The acquisition has enabled K-REIT to benefit from the highest exposure to Grade-A office assets in Singapore, with 93% of its Singapore portfolio comprising Grade-A offices in the Raffles Place and Marina Bay areas. The acquisition has also increased K-REIT’s exposure to the Singapore office market from 90% to 93% of its portfolio. Portfolio occupancy remained healthy at 94%, compared with CBD occupancy of 91%.

• OFC occupancy has increased to 85% from 80% in Oct 11 following the leasing of 57,000sf in the building to a commodities firm at rental rates in the mid-teens. Although K-REIT is likely to have given additional incentives to let out the space, the ability to lease a large block of space at competitive rates despite a tight leasing environment speaks of the quality of the new space at OFC.

• Risks lie in the sustainability of yields upon expiry of income support for OFC. We estimate implied rentals of about S$14psf pm for OFC built into the deal. Our Grade-A rental forecast of S$12-14psf pm by 2016 may fall short of the required rent to support the 5.8% underlying yield. The slowdown in demand due to the macroeconomic headwinds together with a higher supply of 1.9m sf of office space annually over the next five years (vs 1.2m historically) is likely to weigh on office rentals.

• Office rentals to dip 8% per year in 2012-13. Although Grade-A office rentals have shown resilience in 4Q11, remaining flat qoq at S$11psf, we anticipate rentals may dip 8% per year in 2012-13, against a backdrop of slowing economic growth in Singapore and sluggish employment growth in the financial services sector. We expect demand to moderate from the average 2m sf of space per year in 2010-11 to 1.3m sf of space per year in 2012-13. Grade-A occupancy, which was at 91.2% in 4Q11, is likely to fall below 90% in 2012.

• Shadow space and exposure to financial institutions are key concerns. With financial institutions representing seven out of ten of KREITs top 10 tenants, K-REIT relies on financial institutions for over 50% of income. This is a concern as reports of staff cutbacks in financial institutions globally prompt a reassessment of office space requirements. We are starting to see indications of sub-letting, or shadow space, including a request by a tenant of K-REIT in Marina Bay Financial Centre (MBFC) to allow for sub-letting of committed space. This would compete directly with K-REIT’s efforts to renew and lease new space in buildings such as OFC.

Earnings Revision/Risk
• We lower our 2012 and 2013 DPU forecasts by 4% and 5% after factoring in the dilution from the 17-for-20 rights issue, offset against the property income from OFC and the lower interest costs. We also introduce our DPU estimates for 2014.

Valuation/Recommendation
• Maintain HOLD with a reduced target price of S$0.95 (previously S$1.05), accounting for the impact of the rights issue and the acquisition of OFC. Our target price is based on a 10% discount to the DDM derived valuation of S$1.03.

Share Price Catalyst
• Higher occupancies at OFC.
• Higher office rentals.
• Positive newsflow on leasing activity, employment and economic growth.




Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: UOB Kay Hian Research
Publish date: 18/01/12

CMT: DPU down 2.5%yoy to 2.30 cents; results in-line with our expectations (UOBKH)

CapitaMall Trust (CT SP)
BUY
Price/Tgt: S$1.75/S$2.15
Mkt Cap: S$5,824m/ US$4,515m
1-Yr Hi/Lo: S$2.02/S$1.62

4Q11 Results Flash: DPU down 2.5%yoy to 2.30 cents; results in-line with our expectations


· CapitaMall Trust (CMT) reported a 4Q11 distributable income of S$75.5m (+0.1% yoy, -2.0%qoq) and a DPU of 2.30cents (-2.5% yoy, –5.0%qoq). The DPU for FY11 was 9.37 cents (+1.0% yoy). The 2.30 cents DPU for 4Q11 consists of 1.02 cents advanced distribution for the period 1 October to 9 November 2011, and a balance 1.28 cents distribution to be paid on 29 February 2012. The FY11 DPU is in line with our expectations, accounting for 98% of our full year DPU estimate of 9.60 cents in FY11.

· FY11 revenues increased 8.5%yoy to S$630.6m while Net Property Income increased 4.8%yoy to S$418.2m, driven by the acquisition of Clarke Quay and Iluma and positive rental reversions. This was balanced against higher operating expenses from Iluma and Clarke Quay. FY11 DPU increased 1.0% yoy due to the private placement of 140m units in 4Q11.

· FY11 rental renewals and new leases signed resulted in 6.4% increase from previous rates, which were typically committed 3 years ago. Occupancy rate moderated to 94.8% in 4Q11 from 98.0% in 3Q11 due to asset enhancement works at The Atrium @ Orchard and Iluma.

· Asset enhancement initiative (AEI) has been announced for Clarke Quay commencing 2Q12 to provide better frontage for new specialty shops. The projected capital expenditure on the AEI is $16m with a target return on investment (ROI) of 35%. The AEI is expected to complete by 3Q12. Construction for Westgate, CMT’s site at Jurong Gateway, commenced on 12 Jan and is expected to be completed by end-2013. JCube, which is due to open in 1Q12, has already seen over 90% of space pre-committed.

· Though growth in Orchard and suburban retail rentals has moderated and remained flat qoq at S$31.60 and S$29.75 psf respectively in 4Q11, CMT will benefit from positive rental reversions as rentals up for renewal in 2012 were signed at the bottom of the market in 2009 during the global financial crisis.


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: UOB Kay Hian Research
Publish date: 18/01/12

A-REIT: 3QFY12: Rich valuations (UOBKH)

Ascendas REIT – Singapore
SELL (Maintained)
Share Price S$2.01
Target Price S$1.85
Downside -8.0%
3QFY12: Rich valuations
Results
• Results in line with expectations. Ascendas REIT (A-REIT) reported 3QFY12 DPU of 3.48 cents, up 5.8% yoy due to the new acquisitions balanced against dilution from increased shares post-rights issue. The results were in line with our expectations, with 9MFY12 DPU representing 76.8% of our full-year forecast.

• Revenue rose 15.7% yoy due to new investments such as Biopolis properties Neuros and Immunos, and Nordic European Centre. Net property income grew 11.6% yoy due to higher operating expenses from higher utility charges and land rent.

• Significant exposure to hi-tech and business park space. A-REIT has completed the S$62m acquisition of Ascendas Z-Link in Beijing, and also acquired a S$80m business park building, 3 Changi Business Park Vista, and a S$99m high-tech industrial building, Corporation Place, in the quarter. The acquisitions increases the share of AREIT’s exposure to business parks and high-tech industrial buildings from 59.3% to 60.6%. AREIT has also completed Phase 1 of the asset enhancement for 10 Toh Guan Road, and will also embark on a new asset enhancement for 9 Changi South St 3.

• Occupancy dropped 0.5ppt to 95.9% from 96.4% in 2QFY12, while weighted average lease to expiry dropped slightly to 4.1 years from 4.3 years in 2QFY12. All-in-funding costs fell 11bp qoq to 3.0% due to the refinancing of debt.

Stock Impact
• Rich P/B valuations with lower yield than office REITs. A-REIT has one of the highest P/B of 1.13x among the large-cap S-REITs under our coverage, while current and forward yields of 6.5-6.9% are lower than the 7.8-8.1% for large-cap office S-REITs such as Suntec REIT or K-REIT. Typically, office REITs traded at a 100-150bp yield premium to industrial REITs.

• Business parks and hi-tech rentals likely to correct after office rentals. With an estimated 8% fall in office rents in 2012, business parks and hi-tech rentals will likely soften by 2-5% as businesses are able to secure office space at more competitive rates. With occupancy at 81% in the business park space, together with low pre-commitments of 58% for upcoming space, rental upside may be limited. A-REIT is also experiencing weakness with new signing rents for business park space falling 2.6% qoq, although this was partially due to a discount offered for new space to an existing tenant.

• Increasing reliance on development properties increases risk profile. With the expected slowdown in growth in Singapore and China, AREIT’s investment in a greenfield business park in Shanghai (S$118m) and a greenfield business park development at Fusionopolis (S$110m), at 4% of its total portfolio, increases its risk profile, especially as there have been no pre-commitments by tenants to occupy the space.

• Up to 20% of portfolio from China. There is risk of dilution of A-REIT’s pure Singapore focus with its expansion into China. Although China assets currently comprise only 1.1% of A-REIT’s portfolio, this could grow up to 20% within the next three years. The risk is more pronounced now with slowing economic growth and tighter liquidity conditions for property
developments in China.

Earnings Revision/Risk
• Key risks include falling office rentals impacting business park demand and rentals and refinancing risks arising from a liquidity crunch.

Valuation/Recommendation
• Maintain SELL and target price of S$1.85, pegged at a 10% discount to the dividend discount model (required rate of return: 8.0%, terminal growth: 2.0%) derived value of S$2.05.

Share Price Catalyst
• Positive newsflow on manufacturing and trade data and new foreign direct investments.
• Pick-up in industrial rents and capital values.
• Build-to-Suit (BTS) and asset enhancement initiative (AEI) opportunities, higher occupancies and yield-accretive acquisitions in the sector.


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: UOB Kay Hian Research
Publish date: 18/01/12

Property Sector: An exciting year ahead (HLG)

An exciting year ahead
Highlights
In our view, the property sector is now at a crossroads, with dichotomy emerging between the stagnating mid/high end segment vs. the vibrant and emerging affordable segment.

We remain positive on long term outlook for property prices, but see little upside in prices for the mid/high end segment. Instead, buyers and developers will start gravitating towards the affordable segment.

Despite the numerous challenges faced by the property sector due to prices peaking in 2011, we still believe there could be much excitement remaining in the sector this year, but the dominant catalysts will be very different from last year.

Catalysts
For 2012, we expect the property sector to be driven by three main catalysts: (1) Affordable housing, (2) M&A excitement, and (3) Iskandar Malaysia.

We expect developers to branch into affordable housing to maintain earnings growth. Growing landbank will be challenging due to escalating land prices, hence we could see a new round of M&A activities driven by land acquisitions.

Iskandar Malaysia to gain the spotlight in 2012, as a number of transformational initiatives start to come on-stream.

Risks
Sharper than expected economic slowdown. Sudden loss of holding power by Malaysian home buyers and rise in NPL ratios. Sudden and unexpected spike in raw material prices and land cost which would erode developer margins. Further punitive cooling measures imposed by regulators.

Rating
POSITIVE
Positives: (1) Asset reflation theme remains intact – property remains the asset class of choice amongst the Malaysian public, particularly for combating inflation. (2) The affordable segment remains untapped, and enjoys strong support from policy makers. (3) Johor to start outperforming after years of neglect and under-performance.

Negatives: (1) Slowdown in demand for mid/high end segment. (2) Banks are slowing down their property loan approvals. (3) Escalating land prices pose a major challenge for developers.

Top Picks
We prefer Mah Sing (BUY, TP RM2.37) for a combination of good liquidity, decent market cap (RM1.6bn) and attractive valuations (8.1x FY12E P/E and 25% upside).

Expect an interesting 2012
For 2012, we expect the property sector to be driven by three main catalysts: (1) Affordable housing, (2) M&A excitement, and (3) Iskandar Malaysia.

Sector highlights
Neutral outlook for Mid/high-end segment…
The property rally was fuelled by strong performance for the mid/high-end segment over the past two years, but this segment has peaked in late 2011. Property transactions are a natural function of GDP expectations, which explains the slowdown in transactions in 2H 2011.

We believe that the government’s cooling measures in 2011 (slight increment in RPGT and using net pay vs. gross pay for property loans), combined with external weakness, proved to be sufficient in terms of curbing excessive property speculation. With property prices having stabilised in late 2011, we are of the view that policy markers are unlikely to embark on any further punitive cooling measures this year.

At the same time, this also means that we expect very limited upside for property prices in the mid/high-end segment, given growing signs of buyer fatigue and weakened investor confidence due to widely held expectations of slower GDP growth for 2012.

Asset reflation theme remains intact
In 2011, one of the most commonly-asked questions was the possibility NPL ratios spiking up, followed by a burst in the property bubble. We had argued against this scenario, given our belief in the resilience of the Malaysian economy, which is mainly domestically-driven. NPL ratios have supported our view, as asset quality for property loans have continued to show MoM improvements (Fig 6). Going forward, we continue to believe in the holding power of Malaysian home buyers, which support the asset reflation theme.

On inflation front, we expect inflation to remain at elevated levels this year, with a forecast of 3.0% for 2012. We see upside risk to our 2012 inflation forecast, given the uncertainty on food supply chain and its impact on prices. The new salary scheme for civil servants & pensioners effective January 2012 is expected to reinforce the supplydriven inflation.

In conclusion, with the Malaysian public “enjoying” a zero-to-negative real rate of return savings, we believe that property will inevitably remain one of the favourite choices to combat inflation, thus keeping our asset reflation theory well and alive for 2012. However, we believe this will take on a different form in 2012, as we expect prices for the mid/high end segment to stagnate. Instead, we are calling for the asset reflation theme to materialise within the affordable housing segment.

Are banks “turning off the tap”?
The property rally was driven by what we termed as the “asset reflation theme”, due to excessive liquidity within the Malaysian banking system, combined with a perceived lack of desirable investment alternatives, which drove the Malaysian public towards property investing to combat inflation. This in turn was greatly aided by the aggressive lending policy of the commercial banks.

However, we note that banks are now adopting more prudent approach in their lending practices, following Bank Negara’s “moral-suasion” campaign. Lending activity has slowed down in the recent months (Fig 7), and we expect this moderation to continue in 2012. One of the key constraints is property valuations, which saw record price appreciations in 2011. In turn, borrowers in the mid/high end segment are now facing increasing difficulty in justifying the property prices for their housing loans. On the demand side, it is also interesting to note that applications have also declined in recent months (Fig 7), which we attribute to the buyer fatigue taking place in the mid/high-end segment. For 2012, we see the constraints in financing and decline in buyer’s interest as the main impediments for sales, launches and price appreciation in this segment.

Sector catalysts
Sector rotation is no longer an option
With the asset reflation story still firmly in place, yet with mid/high end properties offering limited upside in the current environment, this naturally begs the question: what then is the next feasible step for both property buyers and developers? We submit that the answer lies in the affordable housing segment, a traditionally neglected segment which is now enjoying an increasing amount of attention. On the ground, this is already starting to materialise; our channel checks indicate that buyers have been pulling out of bookings for high-end projects in late 2011, and are now instead rotating to the affordable segment.

100% support from policy makers
Budget 2012 has been friendly to the affordable housing segment, with policy makers clearly seeking to promote affordable housing for the masses by raising the limit of MFHS (“My First Home Scheme”) from RM220k to RM400k, with effect from Jan 2012. Under the revised SBPA (New Civil Service Remuneration Scheme), civil servants also now enjoy annual salary increment in the range of 7-13%, which also bodes well for the affordable segment.

The government also announced the setting up of PR1MA (1Malaysia People’s Housing) as the sole agency to provide affordable housing for the middle income group. PR1MA will develop affordable housing on several plots of government-owned land in Sungai Besi and Sungai Buloh, and potentially areas near MRT, LRT and other public transport system lines. The government will also supply almost 10,000 houses in various parts of Klang valley below market price, with no stamp duty on loans.

Time for niche players to shine
One of the first-movers in the affordable segment is Hua Yang, with their flagship project One South seeing its GDV rise from the initial RM750m to RM840m, thanks to strong demand for its relatively affordable residential and commercial units, which are priced below RM400k per unit. LBS Bina, is another niche player in this segment, and it will be interesting to see how they capitalise on their first-mover advantage. LBS Bina are preparing to launch houses in Bandar Saujana, Putrajaya at RM233k per unit onwards.

Big boys to follow suit
Big-name developers such as Mah Sing and SP Setia have been quick to respond with their land acquisitions in Rawang and Semenyih respectively, and we expect other developers to start gravitating towards the sub-RM500k segment. In particular, we expect developers sitting on large tracts of land bank to do well. Within our coverage universe, key beneficiaries include YNH Berhad (townships in Manjung), KSL and UMLand (landed townships in Johor). IJM Land have Canal city, whilst UEM Land have Nusajaya West. Sunway also have vast landbank in Perak and recently beefed up their landbank in Johor.

The biggest challenge: beefing up landbank
However, in the current environment, the balance of power has clearly shifted in favour of land owners, making land acquisitions increasingly tricky for developers. As recently as Dec 2011, both SP Setia and Mah Sing ran into snags in their land acquisitions. Whilst the official reasons were related to legal intricacies, we believe the underlying motivations are commercially driven, with land owners possibly seeking to withdraw from their earlier sales agreements with the possible intention of seeking far higher prices for their land going forward.

Rather than going through the conventional route of outright land acquisition, we believe that developers will increasingly start to look at the M&A avenue instead to rapidly beef up their landbank.

Potential flurry of M&A / privatisation activity in 2012?
We expect M&A excitement to be one of the key catalysts for 2012. Intensifying M&A activity will be driven by the twin forces of escalating land prices and persistent valuation discounts for property stocks.

This makes the acquisition of listed property developers potentially more attractive compared to outright land acquisitions, and provide developers with a means of rapidly expanding their landbank into affordable housing at reasonable cost. This is particularly true for undervalued companies with valuable landbank in Penang and Klang Valley. In Fig 10, we have listed 35 developers with market cap of RM150m and below, and we note that the majority are trading at discounts of more than 50% to NBV, with low gearing or even net cash position. From an M&A perspective, we anticipate some interesting times ahead.

Within our coverage universe, the following companies are trading at the steep discounts relative to RNAV: UMLand, KSL and YNH (Fig 9). However, we do not expect these companies to be feasible takeover targets, given the presence of active and dynamic controlling shareholders.

Instead, we see IJM Land, Malton and Kris Assets as the more likely privatisation/takeover targets. In the case of IJM Land, its parent IJM Corp already holds a 66% stake and may find it preferable to delist its property arm to avoid earnings dilution. Malton is also trading at ~50% discount to NBV, which could prompt its owner Dato’ Desmond Lim to make a general offer. Kris Asset is more of a REIT play, with its recent run-up in share price a strong indicator of IGB Corporation’s plans to injected its prized Mid Valley Megamall asset into a REIT.

Rising interest in Johor
UEM Land has been widely touting 2012 as the “tipping point” for Nusajaya in Iskandar Malaysia (Fig 8), with numerous facilities such as Medini, Educity and Nusajaya Industrial Park scheduled to come on-stream. (Note: the three items highlighted in green will be ready only after 2012)

The primary challenge for Iskandar Malaysia is building up “critical mass”. Similar to Penang, one of Johor’s main challenges is their limited domestic population (Johor population: 3.3m, Singapore: 5.2m). Therefore, for Iskandar Malaysia to truly take off, it must rely on the “crossover crowd”, i.e. Malaysians working in Singapore but living in Malaysia, and Singaporeans coming over to Iskandar to set up factories and businesses and buy weekend homes.

To make this happen, a number of transformational initiatives have been carried out, with full backing of the Malaysian Government via IRDA (Iskandar Regional Development Authority). Private sector participation has been encouraging as well, with UEM Land taking the lead in Nusajaya, and UMLand proactively remodelling their flagship Bandar Seri Alam development into the Education Hub of Iskandar Malaysia. The upcoming O&G hub in Tanjong Piai is also expected to provide additional stimuli to local economic activities.

Singaporean buyers have taken notice, and their favourite buying destinations include the likes of Leisure Farm, Horizon hill, Imperia @ Puteri Harbour and D’Esplanade @ KSL City. The signature waterfront projects along Puteri Harbour and Danga Bay are expected to draw in the top-end Singaporean buyers, whilst the other more affordable projects will appeal to the middle-class Singaporean buyers, who find Singaporean properties out of their reach.

Within our coverage universe, the biggest beneficiaries will be UMLand and KSL. As the largest single land owner in Johor (24,000-acres in Nusajaya), UEM Land provides the largest exposure to Iskandar Malaysia.

Valuation and recommendation
Maintaining OVERWEIGHT stance
Despite the numerous challenges faced by property developers, we believe that the domestic economy should remain sufficiently resilient to keep the asset reflation going. On this note, developers will be required to be agile and adaptable, and start to tile their product offering towards the affordable segment, if they have not already done so. Mah Sing, SP Setia, UMLand, KSL and YNH all are well-positioned to do so, given their strong landbanks. The current environment could be challenging for Glomac, who are already undergoing a soft patch in earnings and need to beef up their landbank.

M&A excitement should also pick up in the sector, but would not be very applicable to developers under our coverage, deep valuation discounts notwithstanding. We expect small-cap, illiquid property counters to become M&A targets for their landbank, and have compiled a list of potential takeover candidates with market of RM150m and below (Fig 10).

The third and final theme for our 2012 outlook will be the “Iskandar 2012”. UEM Land, UMLand, KSL, Mah Sing, SP Setia and Mulpha International will be the major beneficiaries.

Hence we are maintaining our overweight call on the sector, and our top pick remains Mah Sing, with a potential upside of 25% and trades at relatively undemanding P/E of 8.1x for FY12E.




Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: HLIB Research
Publish date: 16/01/12
Warren E. Buffett(沃伦•巴菲特)
Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful
别人贪婪时我恐惧, 别人恐惧时我贪婪
投资只需学好两门课: 一,是如何给企业估值,二,是如何看待股市波动
吉姆·罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)
“错过时机”胜于“搞错对象”:不会全军覆没!”
做自己熟悉的事,等到发现大好机会才投钱下去

乔治·索罗斯(George Soros)

“犯错误并没有什么好羞耻的,只有知错不改才是耻辱。”

如果操作过量,即使对市场判断正确,仍会一败涂地。

李驰(中国巴菲特)
高估期间, 卖对, 不卖也对, 买是错的。
低估期间, 买对, 不买也是对, 卖是错的。

Tan Teng Boo


There’s no such thing as defensive stocks.Every stock can be defensive depending on what price you pay for it and what value you get,
冷眼(冯时能)投资概念
“买股票就是买公司的股份,买股份就是与陌生人合股做生意”。
合股做生意,则公司股份的业绩高于一切,而股票的价值决定于盈利。
价值是本,价格是末,故公司比股市重要百倍。
曹仁超-香港股神/港股明灯
1.有智慧,不如趁势
2.止损不止盈
成功者所以成功,是因为不怕失败!失败者所以失败,是失败后不再尝试!
曾淵滄-散户明灯
每逢灾难就是机会,而是在灾难发生时贱价买股票,然后放在一边,耐性地等灾难结束
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