Saturday, January 14, 2012

Financial Ratios Warren Buffett Uses When Analyzing Companies

Financial Ratios Warren Buffett Uses When Analyzing Companies
Warren Buffet is one of the most successful investors in the United States and is also considered to be among the most successful business man in the world. When analyzing companies, Warren Buffett (in view of how he selects his business) uses the following financial ratios.

Return on Equity (ROE)

ROE measures the rate of return on the ownership interest (shareholders’ equity) of the common stock owners. It measures a firm’s efficiency at generating profits from every unit of shareholders’ equity (also known as net assets or assets minus liabilities). ROE shows how good a company uses investment funds to generate earnings growth. ROEs between 15% and 20% are considered desirable. The formula represents the fiscal year’s net income (after preferred stock dividends but before common stock dividends) divided by total equity (excluding preferred shares), expressed as a percentage.

Intrinsic Value

Intrinsic Value is the actual value of a company in terms of both tangible and intangible factors, based on assets, on an underlying perception of its true value including all aspects of the business. This can be much different from what the market value is. Warren Buffett hasn’t exactly published his formula for what he calls the intrinsic value of a company, but he has dropped a number of hints.

Analysts agree he probably multiplies the estimated future earnings by a confidence margin between zero and a hundred. He uses there probable earnings and compares it to something he has total confidence in, by using a U.S. treasury yield as the rate (discounted).

Retained Earnings

The percentage of net earnings (not paid outÊas dividends to shareholders,) but retained by the company to be reinvested in its core business or to pay debt.

The formula calculates retained earnings by adding net income to (or subtracting any net losses from) beginning retained earnings and subtracting any dividends paid to shareholders:

Also known as the “retention ratio” or “retained surplus”. Warren Buffett, determines that the management of a company is competent, when they can use the retained earnings well. If the management uses them foolishly, then Buffet would rather go with companies who give shareholders full dividends.

Profit Margins

Profit margin is simply profit divided by sales. This means that there are as many measures of profit margin as there are measures of profit. Buffett looks for companies with above-average profit margins. Net profit margin equals to the total net income divided by total sales for the same period.

For instance, a company would have a 20% net profit margin if it earned $20 million on sales of $100 million ($20 million divided by $100 million).

The higher the net profit margin, then a higher profitability can be expected from the company.

Owner’s Earnings

Warren Buffett uses a calculation called Owner’s Earnings which determines how much actual cash a company can produce for a true owner. Things like goodwill, depreciation, or huge pension returns make up these factors. These are good ÒbuyÓ signals for companies with consistent growth. The discounts means very little for inconsistent growers and heavily cyclical companies. He has referred to the owner earnings of a company as the true measure of earnings. He has defined Ôowner earning’s as: Reported earnings + depreciation, amortization, other non-cash items – average annual amount of capitalized spending on plant, machinery, equipment (and presumably research and development).

All in all, these are just some of the top five ratios and considerations Warren Buffett uses to analyze companies and where to invest.

Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: Stock Market Investing 101
Publish date: 02/10/11

股市跌势中最可怕的7种错误

股市跌势中最可怕的7种错误
作者:来源:中国证券报·中证网  2012-01-12 09

大跌总是在许多人的怀疑中坚定地到来,当确认跌势之后,新的错误又在许多人身上发生,由于已经下跌了相当的幅度和持续了相当的时间,这些错误会带来质的损失。

  1)盲目寻底。期待底部的到来是人性的弱点,如同牛熊的拐点与宏观经济由上行到下行的拐点对应一样,熊牛的拐点也必须对应于宏观经济由下行到上行的拐点,至少是连续性的拐点。而我们经常犯的错误是“已经跌这么多了,该到底了”,4000点和6000点比认为差不多到底了,3000点和6000点比认为差不多到底了,2000点和6000点比认为是铁底了,可事实是底在底下!

  2)相信策底。跌势中有利好是不足为奇的事情,甚至出台阶段性的救市策也是正常,因此会有策底的说法,这反映的是被套的人的期待和幻想。策底很少与市场底重合,往往是多个策底之后才巧遇市场底,而多数人牺牲在策底上,6124以来已经有很多人为此献身。

  3)错用相反理论。相反理论是有用的,但前提条件是拐点附近;相反理论也是害人的,原因是很多人出于对拐点到来的期盼而错误地运用了它。

  下跌的过程总是伴随恐怖和绝望,因此,如果你相信“别人恐怖我婪”的话,套牢是你必然的选择。

  4)补仓套死自己。几乎所有的教科书都教你补仓以降低成本,事实上下跌过程中补仓是最错误的行为,成本下降是可能的事情,但你的成本一般还在山腰上,一次次的补仓事实上是在自己脖子上一次次的增加枷锁。

  5)抢反弹。为了回本,很多人在努力地寻找反弹的机会以用小的差价减少损失,由于熊市的反弹总是昙花一现或是为下跌积蓄能量,所以抢反弹的结果往往是再度套牢和再次割肉,所以,有死在反弹中的说法。正确的做法是在反弹中减少仓位,以规避新的下跌。

  6)追买强势股票。逆势的股票是存在的,但最终总是追随大盘的步伐下跌,强在一时,补跌总是难免的。而多数人喜欢看到红色的东西,喜欢看到强势可能带来的机会,于是,连续观察之后去追买,OK,你买完之后就是补跌,你的高于大盘的亏损因此而产生。

  7)相信套不死。被套之后很多人会说等它几年就回来了,甚至会拿出一些以前套了几年发财的故事欺骗或者安慰自己,且不说时间是有成本的,套牢也给你带来很大的实际风险:摘牌或者退市的事情也许就发生在你身上。


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 中证网
Publish date: 12/01/12

S i2i eyes higher end of cheap handset market

Business Times - 14 Jan 2012


S i2i eyes higher end of cheap handset market

It launches two models with prices that grazes the three-digit mark

By JOYCE HOOI

HANDSET maker and Internet telephony firm S i2i, which caters to the masses for whom the latest iPhone or Blackberry is beyond their means, is making inroads into higher-end phone territory in a bid to fatten its margins.

The company - formerly known as Spice i2i - launched two smart-feature phone models - the Racer and the Latte - for the Singapore market yesterday, which come bundled with the firm's own app store for the first time.

The handsets will be available in retails stores such as 7-Eleven here in March. Before this, both models were sold in markets outside of Singapore, but without the preloaded app store.

Priced at less than $100 - a fraction that of an iPhone or a Samsung Galaxy - these models are an upgrade for consumers in S i2i's two main markets, Indonesia and India, as they represent a departure from the average price point of $25-30 to one that grazes the three-digit mark.

Smart-feature phones are handsets that resemble smartphones, but unlike the latter, do not have an open operating system that allows third-party developers to create apps for the platform.

Instead, S i2i provides these apps through their app store - S Apps Planet - that offers a mix of in-house work and agreements with app developers. It has deals with game publisher Gameloft and other app heavyweights, such as Facebook, Google and Yahoo.

S i2i chairman and Indian billionaire Bhupendra Kumar Modi is upbeat about the prospects of the lower-end cousin of the swanky smartphone. 'In India and Indonesia, 60-70 per cent of market share belongs to handsets with a price of less than US$70,' he said.

For the quarter ended June, S i2i sold about two million mobile phones, Dr Modi said. Its sister company, Bombay-listed S Mobility (formerly Spice Mobility), sold another two million units.

While S i2i is positioning itself somewhere between the high-end smartphones and the no-brand phones that clog emerging markets, Dr Modi is mindful of the pressure on margins. 'We're trying to keep the cost under control,' he said, adding that the higher-end Racer and Latte models have higher margins than their cheaper predecessors.

S i2i spent the large part of last year on an acquisition spree, and while revenue almost quadrupled for the fiscal half year ended Sept 30, costs have ballooned as well, leaving the firm with a net loss of US$24.4 million.

This is likely to take one to two years to turn around.

'We are going to cut the losses as far as the cash losses are concerned,' said Dr Modi, who was in town for the opening of the firm's Global Innovation Centre in Ubi, where its parent company, S Global (previously known as Spice Global), will carry out research and development.

Dr Modi told BT that the idea of a merger between S i2i and S Mobility, which he had been toying with since last year, has run up against some regulatory limitations.

'There's one issue there because it's a cross-border merger. One company in Singapore, one company in Bombay. That requires some changes in the law because the laws are very traditional. Cross-country mergers are still very difficult,' he explained.

'We're considering some sort of understanding for how we can bring the shareholders together. It could be a merger or a buyout or something to do with consolidation at the top level.'





Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: www.businesstimes.com.sg
Publish date:14/01/12

Prepare for bumpy ride: Stanchart warns investors

Business Times - 14 Jan 2012


Prepare for bumpy ride: Stanchart warns investors

China will encounter setback while Greece may leave eurozone

By EMILYN YAP

INVESTORS need to remain strapped in for a bumpy ride as Greece could leave the eurozone next year and China will encounter a setback at some point, said Standard Chartered chief economist Gerard Lyons.

But there is a better outlook for those keeping their eyes on the longer term. The world is in a 'super-cycle' boosted by the rise of emerging economies and countries with cash, commodities or creativity can do well, he said.

For now, uncertainty prevails. 'We live in a divided world, a disconnected world, and a world of policy dilemmas,' said Mr Lyons yesterday at Standard Chartered's research briefing for some 300 clients.

The bank projects global growth at 2.2 per cent this year, under last year's 3 per cent.

The euro area could go into a recession, with GDP contracting 1.5 per cent. Politicians have not reacted speedily or comprehensively to the debt crisis and that has created problems for the economy and the banks, Mr Lyons said.

He believes that Greece will eventually throw in the towel to avoid more years of growth-crimping austerity. But it is likely to stay in the eurozone until it gets its budget in shape, and it could achieve a primary surplus by year-end.

'I think there is a serious likelihood that Greece will decide to leave the euro, not just yet, but in a year's time,' he said. 'And then the big problem is with limiting the contagion to the other countries.'

And there is a possibility that the eurozone will disintegrate, though there is a higher chance of a small number of countries - led by core economies such as Germany - remaining within the union, he added.

Market views of where the eurozone will go from here remain mixed. Capital Economics also expects its membership to change, with Greece pulling out this year.

The United States is likely to do better than the eurozone, though with a sluggish GDP growth of 1.7 per cent, according to Standard Chartered estimates. Though big corporates have strong balance sheets, they are holding back on investments because of regulatory uncertainty before the elections, Mr Lyons said.

Asian economies will not be immune to problems in the West but they are better positioned to cope, he said.

South-east Asia head of research Tai Hui expects Singapore to underperform with its economy expanding 1.9 per cent this year - below last year's 4.8 per cent. Given slower growth and weaker inflationary pressure, the Monetary Authority of Singapore could switch to a neutral monetary policy stance in April, he said.

What happens in China will be crucial. While markets should be positive about the country, they should also recognise the risks, Mr Lyons said. 'The issue is not if China has a setback; it's when China has a setback.'

China is not a bubble economy but it is prone to bubbles driven by cheap money, leverage and one-way expectations, he said.

Short term uncertainties aside, there are bright spots in the longer term as the world undergoes structural changes, Mr Lyons said. The world is in a super-cycle - a period of high global growth lasting a generation or more - as countries such as China, India, Brazil and Indonesia emerge.

In a new world order, as the balance of economic power shifts from the West to the East, countries that succeed will be those with cash, commodities or creativity, he said.



Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: www.businesstimes.com.sg
Publish date:14/01/12

罗杰斯的投资游记





Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 优酷视频
Publish date:

曾淵滄教路: 2012形勢難測美國是最大變數

曾淵滄教路

2012形勢難測美國是最大變數
二○一一年已經成為歷史了,回顧二○一一年,在上半年,我的數隻愛股表現的真好,銀娛(0027)、一拖(0038)、東方海外(0316)、聯塑(2128)、勝獅貨櫃(0716)、信義玻璃(0868)、中國建材(3323)、友邦(1299)……當然,另有數隻航運股如中國遠洋(1919)、海豐(1308)、熔盛(1101)的表現則是全年皆不如意。到了下半年,股市突然大逆轉,我的這些愛股的股價受到打擊也真大,這也是相當正常的,因為在去年年中,這些股的股價的確出現了一些泡沫,只可惜,因為整體股市仍未出現泡沫,仍未出現牛市三期那種亢奮。因此我沒有趁「高」拋售,理由是股市永遠是高處不算高,低處不算低,你認為高,拋了,明天可能更高。

錯信美大選前造好

自我檢討,二○一一年我犯的最大錯誤是深信每逢美國總統選舉的前一年,股市必然造好的傳統經驗。實際上,美股在二○一一年的表現的確不差。但是,港股就差多了,中國A股對港股的影響力愈來愈大了,二○一一年是A股非常低迷的一年,幾乎是從年頭跌到年底。

展望二○一二年,這將是極難預測的一年,不但是股市難預測,實體經濟也難預測,其中一個最大的變數是美國。二○一一年六月美國QE2結束,不再印鈔票來買國債,但是美國國債不因此而失寵。相反的,今日美國國債成搶手貨,全球大量的不知道該幹甚麼,該投資於何處,找不到無風險的投資機會的資金全湧到美國,買入接近零息的美國國債,美國國債在二○一一年八月還遭標準普爾這家貸務評級機構降級呢!看來這家評級機構自己的信用也快破產了,資金湧到美國的結果是美元升值,不再貶值了,結果全球貨幣除人民幣外全貶值,各種商品的價格也由高峰往下跌,黃金價格跌勢驚人,數個月前還有一些專家說每安士黃金將升上二千美元呢!但是,儘管全球資金往美國走,對美國實體經濟的幫助不大,這些資金依然流不出金融市場,不斷地在金融市場炒作轉圈子。因此,二○一二年的確有可能奧巴馬會推出另一種形式的刺激經濟方法,要刺激經濟,肯定要印鈔票,也許不叫QE而改個名稱。

如果美國印鈔,美股會大升,希望有助於港股。但是,如果美國印鈔,中國的緊縮銀根的政策將不會放鬆,A股會繼續受壓,又是打擊港股。

盼歐債最壞時間已過

再看看歐債問題,在二十六個歐盟國家願意簽定新條約的鼓勵之下,投資者對歐債的信心開始慢慢地恢復。二○一一年十二月二十九日意大利拍賣十年期國債,利率已降至七厘以下,希臘、意大利、西班牙這三個「歐豬」國家已換了政府領導人,新政府正厲行節約開支,削減社會福利的政策以爭取投資者的信心,如果一切理想,歐債危機最艱苦的日子在二○一一年九月已成過去,展望是樂觀的。

目前的港股的確是很便宜,PE值很低,香港首富李嘉誠幾乎沒有停止地買入自己的股票,李嘉誠有信心,為甚麼你沒信心?


輯錄自 436期 Book A


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 東周刊
Publish date: 03/01/12

大英Blog物館: 兵荒馬亂 現金流 勝於一切

兵荒馬亂 現金流 勝於一切
一年剛盡,又屆展望新年之時。

今年的宏觀氣候,實在難測:歐債危機,已變成政治遊戲,政客朝令夕改,頓成常態,外人實難揣摸後續舉動。內地行將換屆,政策會否大變,也難預料。市場受消息、情緒主導,在極度樂觀與極度悲觀間遊走,恍如精神分裂。一言貫之:能見度極低。

組合以防守股先行

當然,秉承一貫「沒有生不逢時,只有技不如人」的精神,爛地自有應對之法。首先,估計明年應是上落市,首季宜暫忍手,切莫「有前無後,打死罷就」。組合主力,可以防守股先行,例如用大家樂(341)、青啤(168)、維他奶(345)、維達(3331)、恒安(1044)、領匯(823)加兩電,組成防守陣營,靜待外圍環境好轉,才考慮改以高啤打(beta)的一線股出擊。

既然牛軍反攻,非旦夕可至,實體經濟半生不死、虛擬經濟忽上忽落,局面隨時維持一、兩季,甚至更長,要有打持久戰的準備。揀股亦要因時制宜,作出調整,有必要留意「孫子」中「軍無輜重則亡,無糧食則亡,無委積則亡」的教條。

打仗首忌糧道被斷,一斷必然潰敗。例如曹操、袁紹官渡相持,曹軍以一敵十,自己也缺糧,久守必失,就是靠火燒袁軍烏巢糧倉,才奠定勝局。又如馬謖守街亭,捨大路結寨,改屯兵山上,司馬懿立時圍山,斷蜀兵糧水,兩日內馬謖軍團自行瓦解,北伐中原被迫告終,若非諸葛亮用空城計「大走」司馬懿,早已受累捨身成仁。

做生意一樣,所賺減少,或盈轉虧,等同打仗損兵折將,只是常事,不會一鋪清袋,但現金和信貸額度,即是業務營運的糧草,只要現金流一斷,等同糧道被截,任你兵馬無數、天縱英才,都會不戰自亂。最極端的例子,是為「黑字破產」,意指業務錄得盈利,卻因現金耗盡,周轉不靈而破產。真實例子為福記食品(1175),二○○九年出事前的最後一份業績,做13.9億人民幣生意、賺2.7億。大半年後,卻因延遲發放業績,令可換股債劵技術違約,沒有足夠現金償還,惟有清盤。

趁高集資看高一線

正如三軍未動,糧草先行,軍無輜重則亡;實業經營,現金流管理,是逆境防守之本。基本工夫,是檢查資產負債表的流動比率(current ratio)、速動比率(quick ratio)。看帳面數字之餘,還要深入分析。例如某二○一○年上市的環保金屬股,股價曾升兩倍,流動比率尚可,但截至去年年中,現金1.67億港元,存貨16.8億;銀行貸款11.8億。金屬價格下半年急跌近三成,而年報中卻未見大手對沖。通脹預期見頂,萬一金屬續潛,不沽存貨,便要另尋新水源;蝕斬存貨,現金能回籠,股本卻受損,或影響將來營運及借貸。

既然現金重要,過去一段時間,取得銀團貸款(如理文造紙(2314))、借貸容易(國企優於民企)、存貨妥善對沖或易於變現、淨現金,或成功趁高集資的公司,之後可以看高一線。


輯錄自 436期 Book A

Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 東周刊
Publish date: 05/01/12

瑞银投资策略师:全球经济非一片阴霾 投资者应保持乐观

欧洲债务问题持续但欧元区瓦解的可能性很小、美国经济数据显示经济正在好转、中国经济固然有隐忧但预计可软着陆,瑞银财富管理研究部因此相信,全球经济展望并非就是一片阴霾,投资者应更加乐观。

  在新加坡中华总商会和《商业时报》联办的第十届商业展望论坛上,瑞银财富管理研究部新加坡首席投资策略师郑汪清指出,美国最新的经济数据显示就业率在上升,小企业重新开始雇佣,目前相对较低的汽油价,也让对汽油有硬性需求的美国人能有更多闲钱用于消费。

  “美国的房地产市场也在复苏,虽然微弱但依然是经济好转的迹象。我预计美国今年能取得2%的经济增长。投资者可以对美国有更乐观的期待。”

  中国近期房价开始下跌,市场有泡沫破灭的迹象。如果房地产市场溃败,会连带影响建筑业、资源业等,让许多投资者担心中国要出现硬着陆。

  郑汪清指出,中国房地产市场情况特殊,因为中国人借钱买房的比率较欧美低得多,房屋贷款总额只约等于国内生产总值(GDP)的15%,远低于美国的近80%。

  因此,中国房市不会出现美国式的灾难性崩盘,因房价下跌导致的不良贷款,对银行影响的程度也将相当有限。同时,中国近年积极推动经济适用房,将能带动建筑业持续发展。

  郑汪清相信,中国将能够软着陆,GDP增长今年将减少至8%、出口增长削减,但政府可能在今年第二季放宽宏观经济政策。房地产市场会放缓但依然能维持强劲,一些小房地产商可能会整合。

  至于欧洲,郑汪清坦言问题相当严重,经济低迷并非周期性而是结构性的,若要解决绝非一朝一夕之事,但欧洲各国已在努力应对问题,第一季的债券出售结果将十分关键。不论如何,欧元区瓦解的可能性很小。

有鉴于此,郑汪清建议投资者要更加乐观,市场并非就是“熊气冲天”。他更认为,我国今年第一季将会触及经济周期谷底,从下季度起就有望开始复苏。
  既然如此,要如何进行投资呢?新加坡证券投资者协会研究公司总裁陈一帆认为,本地股市各个行业的本益比(P/E)和市净率(P/B)目前都已处于近年来的低点,现在是进场选购一些低价位好公司股票的良机。

  “关键在于少交易、多投资,不要频繁买卖,而是持有好公司的股票。不过,在市场前景不明朗的情况下,持有现金依然是王道,所以也要保留一定比例的现金。”

  陈一帆建议投资者,除了蓝筹股外也可考虑房地产信托,其股息回报率可达5%至7%。龙筹股中也有许多潜在机会,不过风险较大,需要投资者仔细地分析和判断。

  郑汪清则建议,投资者可考虑银行股。他认为投资需要在危机中寻找机会,必须承担一定风险,如果等局势完全明朗了才出手,恐怕就已经太迟。

  在汇市上,郑汪清看好新元和人民币的走势。他指出,若按照购买力平价来计算,除日元外大多亚洲货币对美元都没有被高估。他也认为,金价有望在今年上涨到每安士2200美元(2832新元)。

陈一帆建议投资者,除了蓝筹股外也可考虑房地产信托,其股息回报率可达5%至7%。郑汪清则建议,投资者可考虑银行股。



Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 联合早报
Publish date:14/01/12

廖文良不同意把私企薪金政治化

嘉德置地公司总裁廖文良认为部长这次减薪幅度过大,超出他的预期。

  这位言辞锐利、有话直说的前高级公务员在政治职位薪金检讨委员会最近公布报告隔天接受本报记者两个小时的专访,以个人名义对部长减薪发表看法时,认为部长薪金已经“减过头了”(overshoot),而且选择以收入最高的1000名新加坡人的年薪中位数作为标准,范围过大,人数应该减少。因为这1000人中并非所有的人都有当部长的能力。

  薪金报告建议属于MR4级的初级部长的年薪以收入最高的1000名新加坡人的年薪中位数为标准,再扣除40%。

  在廖文良看来,与其选择这些人的年薪中位数作为标准,倒不如以最高的75个百分位数(percentile)为准。

  他也不赞同取收入最高的1000名公民的中位数年薪,再一概扣除40%的建议,而是应该采取渐进式的计算法,例如先扣除10%,再下来才是15%和20%。

  当记者进一步询及部长薪金削减之后,私人企业,尤其是淡马锡联系公司(淡联公司)总裁的薪金配套是否也有调整空间时,廖文良不表苟同,并形容这如同把“薪金政治化”。

  他说:“对我而言,公司是根据表现来奖赏。在一个有国际贸易往来的开放经济体,部长和公务员薪金不应该作为企业高级执行人员薪金配套的基础。开放经济体的私人企业总裁薪水,不应该受到政治情绪的影响。”

  他指出,这也就是调整薪金在社会主义国家相对困难的原因。

廖文良忆述当年他曾经问过中国全国政协主席贾庆林对公司向雇员发出股票认购权(Stock Option)的看法,贾庆林当时答说:“合理、合法、不合情。”
  他认为如果政治人物减薪,私人企业也得减,那就不是个开放经济体了。

  “要是私企薪水跟着部长走,那当私企经营不善,公司亏损,总裁减薪时,难道部长也得跟着减薪吗?这说得过去吗?”

  对于政府上个月下猛药,向在本地购屋的外国人加抽10%的额外买方印花税的降温举措,廖文良有何看法?他的总裁派驻中国,跟丈母娘又有什么关系?勿洛馨居(Bedok Residences)去年11月推出时,购屋者大排长龙,被指有造势之嫌,他是认还是不认?

Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 联合早报
Publish date:14/01/12

昨起47点 海指本周涨2.8%

昨天虽然为人们俗称的“黑色星期五”,但本地股市却丝毫不受影响。

  西班牙和意大利政府债券的拍卖活动反应热烈,抵消了美国较欠佳的经济数据,刺激海峡时报指数昨天闭市时上扬47.88点或1.75%,收报2791.54点,为去年11月16日以来的最高闭市点。

  海指已经连续第二个星期上涨,本周的涨幅为2.8%。30只海指成份股只有三只没有上扬。

  虽然市场对西班牙和意大利国债的强劲销售感到鼓舞,不过分析师指出,环球经济展望仍然不明朗。

  新加坡证券投资者协会研究公司(SIAS Research)分析师黄建锝指出,虽然拍卖活动取得成功,不过市场还在等待更实质的迹象。

  他说:“这包括评级机构是否会调降或维持它们的评级。接下来还会有更多的债券销售活动,而人们也将关注的是希腊。”

  美国最新发布的数据显示,12月的零售销售增长速度为七个月来最缓慢的,上周首次领取失业救济金的人数也有所增加,显示美国经济的复苏或不稳定。

  新加坡股市昨天的全天交易量为10.5亿股,交易额为11.7亿元,上升股超越下跌股,上升的股票共301只,下跌股为107只,其他373只股票维持不变。

昨天的亚洲股市则是起落参半,下跌的市场包括正在举行选举的台湾、吉隆坡、菲律宾、泰国、上海及深圳,其他市场则上扬。
  新加坡银行类股昨天全面上涨,本地三家银行的涨幅超过2%。

  德意志银行在星期四发布的一份报告中指出,尽管短期内的展望具挑战性,不过它仍对本地银行表示乐观,这是因为它们的资产负债表稳健,股价也仍维持在诱人的水平。

  海皇轮船(NOL)闭市时增长近5%至1.27元。一些交易员指出,由于农历新年将近,船运业的货运量有望增加。

  不过,也有分析师指出,船运业目前仍面临供应过剩以及燃油成本高昂的挑战,影响业者的盈利。

Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 联合早报
Publish date:14/01/12

S&P hammers euro zone politicians with downgrades

S&P hammers euro zone politicians with downgrades

Reuters


By Walter Brandimarte and Steven C. Johnson

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Standard & Poor's hit the euro zone with a downgrade of half the countries in the single currency area, including formerly AAA-rated France, and it questioned the strategy of its political leaders for dealing with their two-year old debt crisis.

Germany, the bloc's largest economy, was spared.

In downgrading nine of the euro zones 17 members, S&P said policymakers had not done enough to address the crisis and were even overlooking a key cause of the problem: sharp differences in economic competitiveness among countries that use the euro.

"As such, we believe that a reform process based on a pillar of fiscal austerity alone risks becoming self-defeating, as domestic demand falls in line with consumers' rising concerns about job security and disposable incomes, eroding national tax revenues," the agency said.

While S&P gave higher grades to the European Central Bank for sustaining market confidence through emergency lending to euro zone banks, it said political initiatives thus far "may be insufficient" to address the crisis.

The mass downgrade follows S&P's decision last August to strip the United States of its top credit rating, a move it also chalked up, at least partly, to political stalemate -- namely, lawmakers' inability to agree on ways to cut the budget deficit.

European leaders, including Germany's Angela Merkel, have urged countries to tighten their belts with higher taxes and deep spending cuts to rein in massive budget deficits. But that has heightened market concern about their ability to grow their way back to health, pushing borrowing costs even higher for heavily indebted governments.

"In our view, it is increasingly likely that refinancing costs for certain countries may remain elevated, that credit availability and economic growth may further decelerate and that pressure on financing conditions may persist," S&P said.

European leaders are set to meet at a summit later this month to discuss how to boost growth and jobs.

At a summit on December 9, EU leaders secured agreement on drafting a new treaty for deeper economic integration in the euro zone, but the chances for more decisive measures to stem the debt crisis remain uncertain.

France and Austria both saw their top AAA ratings cut one notch to AA-plus, while Malta, Slovakia and Slovenia also suffered one-notch downgrades.

S&P dropped the credit ratings of Italy, Portugal, Spain and Cyprus by two notches.

The agency reaffirmed the ratings on seven other euro zone countries, including Germany. But it said that of the 16 countries reviewed, all save Germany and Slovakia have negative outlooks, meaning more downgrades are possible in the next couple of years.

"Europe is going to continue to struggle and we're going to see further downgrades and higher yields until European leaders feel that they have the political support to decide whether or not the euro zone is going to be a political union going forward or merely an economic union," said BNY Mellon currency strategist Michael Woolfolk.

French Finance Minister Francois Baroin played down the impact of the move, saying it was "not a catastrophe."

Friday's decision may add to the debt problems as it is likely to increase euro zone borrowing costs across the board.

The move could trigger a series of downgrades of large European banks, companies and government entities. This could include the European Financial Stability Facility, or EFSF, the fund created to rescue troubled euro zone countries, and the European Union.

A downgrade of the EFSF could increase its borrowing costs, reducing its ability to protect the currency bloc's weaker members.

In an interview with Reuters, John Chambers, chairman of S&P's sovereign rating committee, said it would take further increased commitment from the remaining AAA-rated guarantors, including Germany, for the EFSF fund to retain its AAA status.

The main risks to Germany's AAA ratings are a deterioration of its fiscal situation or problems in its financial sector, Chambers, told CNBC-TV on Friday.

(Additional reporting by Daniel Bases and Luciana Lopez; Editing by James Dalgleish, Chizu Nomiyama and Carol Bishopric)

Corrects 11th paragraph to say France and Austria's new rating is AA-plus, not AAA.


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: YahooSGfinance
Publish date: 14/01/12

Strategy 2012: The political caveat (CS)

Malaysia Market Strategy
2012: The political caveat

2012 will be a year when politics will dominate the Malaysian scene, as the general elections (GE) will most likely be conducted in 1H12. The Malaysian stock market could remain range-bound before the GE, as investors do not want significant exposure without knowing the outcome of the GE. However, we believe absolute gains can still be made from stock picking in Malaysia.

Our top picks in Malaysia are based on the following themes:
(1) ETP plays include infrastructure (Gamuda, IJM Corp) and oil & gas (Bumi Armada) companies. Banks (RHB Cap and Public Bank) are proxies to Malaysia’s robust economy.

(2) Proxies to improving Malaysia-Singapore ties are UEM Land and Alliance Financial Group.

(3) ASEAN domestic consumption plays include AirAsia, Genting Berhad and Axiata.

(4) Restructuring plays include Alliance Financial Group (banks M&A theme), AirAsia and UEM Land (through the public-private partnerships). Our top three picks are AirAsia, RHB Cap and Gamuda.

Our top sells in Malaysia include Maybank (euro zone exposure, expensive valuations), Tenaga (gas shortage persists) and IOI Corp (unattractive valuation and rising exposure to the Singapore property sector).

Top picks in Malaysia
2012 will be a year when politics will likely dominate the Malaysian scene as the general elections (GE) will most likely be conducted in 1H12. The Malaysian stock market could remain range-bound before the GE as investors are unlikely to take significant exposure without knowing the outcome of the GE. However, we believe absolute gains can still be made from stock picking in Malaysia.

ETP plays include infrastructure (Gamuda, IJM Corp) and oil & gas (Bumi Armada) companies. Banks (RHB Cap and Public Bank) are proxies to the Malaysian economy. With the GE looming, these stocks should benefit from the ongoing pump priming via the ETP, and will likely be less dependent on the global macro outlook. The ETP is now just over a year old. Over a short 14-month period, ETP has proven to be more successful that what most sceptics initially gave it credit for. The ETP has generally succeeded in removing red tape to facilitate doing business in Malaysia. Ironically, the success of the ETP depends highly on the outcome of the GE. If PM Najib wins strongly during the next GE, the ETP and further subsidy rationalisation can proceed in full steam. If the quality of Najib’s win is poor, the ETP could get derailed.

Better Malaysia–Singapore relationship is a win-win situation for both countries. Malaysia will benefit from stronger investment from Singapore while Singapore could operate out of Iskandar, which has good infrastructure and relatively cheaper land and labour. The year 2012 is expected to be the ‘tipping point’ for Iskandar. UEM Land is the most direct proxy to Iskandar. Warming Malaysia-Singapore ties may also mean a rising likelihood of cross-border acquisitions. The most widely discussed potential M&A would involve AFG.

ASEAN domestic consumption plays: We like AirAsia, Axiata and Genting Berhad for their regional footprint, tapping into the relatively resilient ASEAN domestic consumption story.

Restructuring plays include Alliance Financial Group, AirAsia and UEM Land. We see four M&A themes occurring—consolidation could take place in the banking sector if foreign ownership is permitted to increase to 49%, public-private partnerships could rejuvenate the GLCs by injecting entrepreneurial spirit and fresh faces, M&A among the undervalued stocks could create bigger companies that will rerate.

Top sells in Malaysia
Our top sells in Malaysia include Maybank (euro zone exposure, expensive valuations), Tenaga (gas shortage persists) and IOI Corp (unattractive valuations and rising exposure to Singapore property).

Top dividend plays
Malaysia is a place to hide during difficult times. Malaysia has outperformed in every correction since the year 2000. Our top dividend plays include Maxis (net yield of 7.3%), Sunway REIT (5.8%), BAT (5.5%), CMMT (5.4%), Public Bank (5.2%) and DiGi (4.7%).

Valuations
We estimate that Malaysia trades at 2011 and 2012 P/Es of 16.4x and 13.7x, respectively, and that earnings will grow at 12.6% and 9.2% (ex. MAS, Tenaga and MISC), respectively. We are OVERWEIGHT on the construction, banks, airlines, gaming, telco, timber and REIT sectors.




Our top picks in Malaysia
ETP plays include infrastructure (Gamuda, IJM Corp) and oil & gas (Bumi Armada) companies. Banks (RHB Cap and Public Bank) are proxies to Malaysia’s robust economy. With the GE looming, these stocks will benefit from the ongoing pump priming via the ETP, and will be relatively less dependent on the global macro outlook, in our view.

Improving Malaysia-Singapore relations can be played through Alliance Financial Group and UEM Land.

ASEAN domestic consumption plays include AirAsia, Genting and Axiata.

Restructuring plays include Alliance Financial Group (banks M&A theme), AirAsia and UEM Land (through the public-private partnerships). Our top three picks in Malaysia are AirAsia, Gamuda and RHB Cap.

(1) AirAsia
The business model is sustainable during a recession, in our view. Price-sensitive travellers will switch to cheaper alternatives, downtrading from full service carriers (FSC) to budget airlines. Meanwhile, holidaymakers will opt for cheaper short-haul destinations (ideal for low cost carriers (LCCs)), instead of more 'exotic' long haul/ intercontinental destinations. There is also potential for LCCs to grow their traffic by filling gaps left by (less efficient) rivals that have either cut capacity or exited the business. Reviewing the 2008-09 global financial crisis shows these three factors helped AirAsia report over 20% pax traffic growth p.a.

The MAS tie-up should end the price war, and give AirAsia a de-facto monopoly in the Malaysia budget travel market. Tune Air’s stake in AA falls to 13% (from 23%), prompting, in our view, unwarranted concerns that CEO Tony Fernandes will no longer focus on AirAsia. However, Tony Fernandes stressed that AirAsia is his primary focus. Moreover, AirAsia remains the more important holding, as Tune Air’s stake in AirAsia is worth more than 50% more than its ‘larger’ stake in MAS. Furthermore, unlike MAS, AirAsia can spread its wings beyond Malaysia via JVs in Thailand and Indonesia, and soon in the Philippines and Japan.

We expect AirAsia to enjoy a strong 4Q FY11, due to a seasonal pick-up and easing competitive pressure from Firefly’s progressive exit from the market. Demand is strong, such that AirAsia plans to bring in two aircraft on a short-term lease in 4Q11 to take advantage of the situation. The FY12 will be a busy year for AirAsia with the starting of its JVs in Japan and the Philippines, while it looks to try to make the most of its RM1.2 bn in potential synergies with MAS.

(2) Gamuda
Gamuda’s core construction business is highly dependent on the implementation of the RM50 bn Klang Valley MRT project. Regardless of the global macro outlook, we believe the government will roll out the MRT project. On the other hand, with the GE approaching, the government will be more focused on pump priming measures to shield the Malaysian economy from any external shocks. Gamuda:MMC is well positioned to secure tunneling works for Phase 1 worth RM7-8 bn (to be awarded by 1Q12). Gamuda:MMC aims to finalise the project delivery partner (PDP) contract within the next one-two months and will likely earn a 4–5% project management fee on the elevated portion (RM30 bn).

The Malaysian construction sector is at the beginning of a possible upcycle that should be boosted by the government’s plans to increase total development expenditure by 32% YoY to RM138.2 bn (revised up from RM118.5 bn previously) in 2011 and further increase another 17% YoY to RM161.5 bn in 2012. Gamuda has not secured a major construction project in over three years and its construction order book could potentially rise sharply from RM2.3 bn to RM6.0 bn if it successfully secures the MRT tunnelling works.

(3) RHB Cap
RHB Cap trades at 2011E P/E of 11x (peer average of 14x) and P/BV of 1.4x (2011E ROE of 15%). We like the stock for its (1) valuation discount to peers, (2) low foreign ownership (13%), (3) unique EASY banking strategy that could drive up market share, and (4) potential M&A activity that could trigger a re-rating.

RHB’s EASY strategy is unique. RHB has so far set up 181 EASY outlets and targets 240 outlets by end-2011. Assets under EASY have grown to RM2.5 bn (RM1.26 bn as of end- 2010). EASY now accounts for 2.7% of RHB’s total loans. ASB loans (Bumiputera unit trust loans) are the key growth driver accounting for 77% of assets under EASY. Management intends to expand the product offering through EASY and we believe the group has plans to market HP loans and a wider range of deposit products by end-2012.

We believe the sale of HP loans (likely targeting non-national new car segment) through EASY could be a major game changer that may lead to significant market share gains. RHB Cap share price is now dragged by the uncertainty of its proposed takeover of OSK, as the market is worried about RHB Cap possibly overpaying for OSK. Even though there could be some near-to-medium term earnings and ROE dilution arising from the acquisition of OSK IB, we believe the deal is beneficial to the group in the longer term. This is since it (1) strengthens IB presence and competitiveness, (2) broadens customer base in Malaysia, Singapore and Indonesia, and (3) can enhance revenue with of the entry of a new strategic shareholder. Given OSK Holdings could be accepting RHB stock as payment, we believe it would be in the former’s interest not to harm RHB fundamentals.

(1) ETP and politics
ETP is progressing well
The Economic Transformation Programme (ETP) is just over a year old. Over a 14-month period, ETP has proven more successful that what most sceptics initially gave it credit for. The ETP has generally succeeded in removing red tape to make Malaysia an easier place to do business. An easy win for the ETP was reducing the number of business licenses from 637 to 307 to facilitate business. About 55% of the “entry point projects” have already taken off, thanks to a closer monitoring system to ensure better execution. The three key focus sectors that will benefit are the:
Construction sector—Development expenditure is expected to increase by 32% in 2011 and another 17% in 2012, evident of an expansionary budget. If the construction pie is growing in Malaysia, all contractors will benefit but our top picks are Gamuda and IJM Corp.

Oil & gas sector—The Malaysian government derives about 40% of its funds from petrol-related revenue and needs to increase its oil extraction rate. The government is committed to investing more than RM60 bn over the next five years. Our top pick in the oil & gas sector is Bumi Armada.

Banks sector—These are good proxies to the robust economy and the banks already see early signs of the positive impact from the ETP, and expect a bigger boost in 2012. We rate RHB Cap, Public Bank and Alliance FG as OUTPERFORMs.

Ironically, the future success of the ETP depends largely on the outcome of the GE. If PM Najib registers a strong win during the upcoming GE, the ETP can progress full steam and further subsidy rationalisation can go ahead. However, if the quality of Najib’s win is poor, the ETP could get derailed.

Politics, politics, politics
In 2012, politics will likely dominate the Malaysian scene as the GE will almost certainly take place during the year (deadline is March 2013), with 1H12 a more likely time in our opinion.

This GE will be crunch time for PM Najib, as he will need to win back the mandate from the people and seal his presidency within UMNO by performing better than the 2008 GE, which saw his predecessor, Abdullah Badawi, resign following an unsatisfactory result in the eyes of the ruling party, Barisan Nasional. In 2008, Barisan Nasional won 62% seats, but lost two-thirds majority for the first time since Independence. Hence, the quality of the win of the next GE will be crucially important for Najib, and by extension, for the Malaysian stock market.

PM Najib faces a tough GE, facing challenges from different issues. He has had to grapple with the poor handling of Bersih 2.0, where the Merdeka Survey showed his popularity plunged to a low of 59% post-rally from a high of 72% in mid-2010, and racial sensitivities with the use of the word “Allah” in the Bible. In addition, he has had to face internal issues such as infighting within Barisan Nasional and the strengthening of the right wing fraction in the UMNO.

The young voters are also harder to win over as they are more inclined to be antiestablishment. Najib understands it is crucial for Barisan Nasional to win over the young voters as approximately half a million young Malaysians qualify to register as voters every year. Najib has attempted to portray a “cooler and younger” image by adopting the alternative media, participating on radio programmes for youth and attending their functions.

Elevated commodity prices are a big plus to Barisan Nasional as its stronghold is in the rural areas. Both palm oil and rubber prices remain well supported, hence, smallholders continue to enjoy strong cash flow, keeping private consumption resilient. To woo voters and boost the feel good factor, Najib has of course adopted additional measures that include the following:
(1) Najib delivered on the reforms he promised when he came into power. He announced that the Internal Security Act (ISA) will be repealed. In its place, two new laws will be enacted based on the US Patriot Act and the UK’s Prevention of Terrorism Act. The power of detention has been shifted from the Home Ministry to the judiciary. Along with that, Emergency Ordinances in Malaysia have been lifted, and the Peaceful Assembly Bill, which should allow for more freedom of assembly, has been approved by Dewan Rakyat (though it is still wrought with controversies). Newspapers will now only need to apply for a one time permit rather than annual licences.

(2) An election-friendly budget: The 2012 Budget offered freebies and goodies to many Malaysians. For example, civil servants will get a pay hike and a bonus, low-income households will receive a one-time cash payment of RM500 and all students will be rewarded with a one-time RM100-200 book voucher each. We believe the bulk of this payment will be paid out in January 2012. During the Budget, Najib also announced the listing of FELDA, and promised that, “FELDA settlers should expect a windfall”.

(3) Pump priming via the ETP: The government traditionally pump primes the economy before each GE. Its fiscal expansion is via the ETP—development expenditure is expected to increase by 32% in 2011 and by another 17% in 2012.

Can Najib pull it off?
We believe that the Malaysian stock market will be range bound before the GE is held as investors will not want significant exposure to the market without knowing the outcome of the elections. Post the GE, the quality of Najib’s win will be crucially important.

(1) Base case—Najib takes BN to a bigger win, but fails to get back the two-third majority.
Our base case is that PM Najib has taken enough measures to win back more voters, and thus, he may perform better than the 2008 GE where Barisan Nasional won a 62% majority. Although the Merdeka survey has indicated that the Chinese voters are still largely in opposition, the Malay and Indian voters appear to have swung back to BN. The quality of Najib’s win will be crucial to his power base. Should the margin be large, then his power base increases tremendously and Najib can then push through the further reforms in Malaysia that are badly needed but which may not be too popular, such as the GST and the subsidy cuts.

(2) What if the unexpected happens and BN performs worse than in the 2008 GE?
We believe that this outcome is very unlikely. Should the opposition gain more ground, it will be negative for the Malaysian stock market because the market will perceive this as a hike in political risks as there could be concerns about a likely change in leadership. If this were to occur, there could be an automatic downward reaction to the stock market and perceived ‘politically-linked stocks’ listed in Figure 20 may correct sharply. In addition, in this scenario, the reforms that Malaysia badly needs cannot be pushed through, to the peril of the economy. Meanwhile, the good work of the ETP may be derailed.

(3) What if BN wins back two-third majority?
We also believe this outcome to be unlikely. For Najib to secure a two-third majority, BN needs to win an additional 11 seats. Should this happen, it will be positive for the Malaysian stock market as markets generally embrace certainty and stability. Investors would perceive the political risks as having reduced significantly and this will be taken as a positive as Najib would be seen as having won back a convincing mandate. In this instance, Najib can push through more reforms and the ETP can progress at full steam.

General election is too close to call?
A look at the last five GE shows that the Malaysian stock market outperforms the region three to five months before the GE, and underperforms after the GE. We believe the stock market could be range bound a few months before the GE as investors do not want significant exposure to the market without certainty about the results. Post the GE, the performance of the stock market will depend largely on the quality of Najib’s win. It will likely be a close call, in our opinion.

(2) Better Malaysia–Singapore ties
Better Malaysia–Singapore relationship is a win-win situation for both countries. Malaysia will benefit from stronger investment from Singapore while the latter could operate out of Iskandar, which has good infrastructure and relatively cheaper land and labour.

The year 2012 is expected to be the “tipping point” for Iskandar where the “buzz” will be generated from the completion of some major projects.
End-2011: (1) Genting Plantations’ Johor Premium Outlets shopping mall has opened. (2) A technical workgroup formed for the rapid transit system. (3) The completion of a highway linking Johor Baru to the Johor state government’s administrative centre at Iskandar could halve the travel journey, possibly enticing more Johorians to consider making Iskandar their home.

2012: (1) The engineering campus of the University of Southampton is expected to be completed in September or October 2012. (2) Marlborough College will open its campus in September 2012. (3) The Lego Land Malaysia theme park should open by the end of 2012, and is expected to complement Universal Studios Singapore. (3) The Newcastle Medical University campus at Iskandar’s EduCity should be completed for the summer intake of 2012, even though the university has already started operations this year from a leased premise. (4) Singapore-listed Raffles Education Corp has a majority stake in Raffles University Iskandar, which will commence operations by end- 2011 with the permanent campus expected to be ready in 2013.

2013: (1) The Management Development Institute of Singapore will set up a campus with the first phase to be complete by 2013. (2) Khazanah & Pinewood Shepperton’s RM400 mn independently owned studio facility in Iskandar will be completed in 2013, in line with the government’s effort to boost Iskandar as a creative hub.

2015: Reading Business School is setting up a branch campus in EduCity in Iskandar, the third education group from UK to set up a branch in Iskandar after Malborough College and Newcastle Uni Medical. Construction is expected to start in 2012, and we believe the business school should be ready by 2015.

Temasek is already in Iskandar
Following the land swap deal with the railway land, a 50:50 joint venture company has been set up between Khazanah and Temasek to develop two wellness projects with a gross floor area of up to 1.36 mn sq m in Johor's Iskandar region—one at Urban Wellness development in Medini North and the other called the Resort Wellness development in Medini Central. This could be seen as Temasek’s first official investment in Iskandar after the historic 1 July event. We believe Temasek’s presence in Iskandar, Johor, will encourage more Singapore government-linked companies to consider the possibility of investing in Iskandar.

Beyond joint property investments, we expect better connectivity between Malaysia and Singapore via:
Rapid Transit System: Both countries are also working towards a rapid transit system, scheduled for completion in 2018. The link is expected to run from a station near JB Sentral in Johor Baru to one near Republic Polytechnic in Woodlands—the northernmost stop on the new Thomson Line, also to be completed by 2018. This will create seamless connectivity.

KL–Singapore High Speed Rail Link: The ETP’s Greater Klang Valley NKEA identified the KL-Singapore rail link as a potential Entry Point Project. The Malaysian
government has embarked on a pre-feasibility study on the viability of the KLSingapore High Speed Rail Link, the results of which will be announced by end-2012. We believe such a rail link will be another catalyst in achieving seamless connectivity between Malaysia and Singapore, a big plus to Iskandar.

Key beneficiaries
Landowners in Johor are clear beneficiaries of warming Malaysia-Singapore relations, as some Singaporean manufacturers may choose to establish units in Johor, where land and labour are cheaper than in their own country. Iskandar could turn out to be the Shenzhen of Singapore.

We highlight a list of property owners in Johor, all of whom should benefit if land prices between the two countries narrow. However, from the list below, we would highlight (1) UEM Land as the most direct proxy to Iskandar, and (2) MMC, the second largest landowner in Johor.

More M&A plays? Warming Malaysia-Singapore ties may also mean a rising likelihood of cross-border acquisitions. The most widely discussed potential M&A would involve Temasek taking over Langkah Bahagia’s (linked to Tun Daim) 15% stake in Alliance Financial Group to increase its presence in Malaysia. There is talk that Temasek could then consolidate its banking assets in the region under one umbrella, reportedly the DBS Group.

Infrastructure plays? With so much activity in Iskandar, no doubt the contractors are busy. Some contractors such as the Johor state-owned SJIC, WCT (involved in the infrastructure works in Medini and the 1 Medini residential project) and MRCB (building Marlborough College) are already part of the action. If the RTS and the KLSingapore High Speed Rail link kick off, more contractors would benefit.

Tourism will also benefit from better connectivity. Interest will pick up when the Premium Outlet and Lego Land in Johor are completed. We believe AirAsia and Genting Berhad are proxies to rising tourist arrivals into Malaysia.





(3) ASEAN consumption plays
We like AirAsia, Axiata and Genting Berhad for their regional footprint, which taps into the relatively resilient ASEAN domestic consumption story. We let the charts below illustrate how wide their nets have expanded beyond the Malaysian shores.

(4) Restructuring
We see four different M&A angles in Malaysia:
Public-private partnerships (PPP): This appears to be a recurring theme whereby entrepreneurs are asked to help with ailing national companies or those that have hit a plateau. These PPPs should rejuvenate the Government-linked companies (GLCs) by injecting entrepreneurial spirit and fresh blood plus ideas the GLCs clearly need. Although wrought with problems, and the entrepreneurs may get frustrated manoeuvring a giant GLC that will naturally have more red tape than an entrepreneurled company, we believe that this is a positive move by Najib’s administration. Examples of these PPPs include:
UEM Land—Sunrise
MAS—AirAsia
Sime Darby—E&O Prop
PNB—SP Setia
POS—DRB Hicom

Banks’ M&A: We believe Bank Negara is likely to liberalise foreign ownership in Malaysian banks, and could possibly raise the foreign limit to 49% from 30%. PM Najib Razak was recently quoted as saying that he is willing to consider allowing ANZ to raise its stake in AMMB to as high as 49% (from 24% now).

We believe Alliance Finance Group is the best way to play this theme, facilitated by improving Singapore-Malaysia ties. There are already talks (Star, 23 November 2011) that Singapore Temasek might be looking to consolidate its banking assets under its 28%-owned DBS, which has clear intentions of becoming a regional bank. It was reported that Temasek might offer its stake in AFG to DBS to pave the way for DBS’ entry into the Malaysian banking scene.

Mergers for size: Big is beautiful, as for the case of the merger between Sunway Holdings and Sunway City, coupled with the merger between Kencana and Sapura Crest. The merged entities will not only have a bigger balance sheet that enables them to participate in bigger projects, but will also encourage a re-rating of the stock.

Undervalued stocks: Small cap entrepreneur-led companies have been largely ignored by the market due to their small size and poor liquidity. As these companies are fundamentally strong and continue to generate strong cash flows, the entrepreneurs could decide to take advantage of the low valuations and relatively
‘easy money’ to either privatise the companies or increase their stake in these companies. The property sector is particularly interesting as about 85% of property companies listed in Malaysia (by number) are trading below their book values.


Top sells
Maybank
We maintain our UNDERPERFORM rating on Maybank as it trades at a 13x 2012E P/E, a significant premium to local and regional peers. We are concerned about the following.
Euro zone exposure: According to management, Maybank currently holds RM1.1 bn worth of investment securities issued by euro zone entities (no Greece or Italy). In addition, the group has an additional asset exposure of RM1.2 bn to the United Kingdom.

Possible asset quality weakness given its aggressive loan growth: Loans grew 18% annualised in June-September 2011, driven by overseas loans (Singapore +41%, Indonesia +27%).

Lean capital position: Maybank’s core equity Tier 1 stood at 8.5% as at end-1Q FY11. If Bank Negara raises the minimum CET 1 to 10% under Basel III, Maybank would have to raise approximately RM4.9 bn of new equity (8% of market cap).

Tenaga
We remain negative on Tenaga, primarily because:
We do not believe there is political will for a tariff increase in the upcoming December 2011 review, as GE are looming.
Although Tenaga will be compensated by RM2 bn for the increased fuel costs incurred until October 2011, the gas shortage persists, and Tenaga still needs to burn oil and distillate. We are unsure whether Tenaga will continue to be compensated further. These gas supply constraints should ease with the completion of the Malacca regasification plant in 2H12. However, as it is imported from Qatar, Tenaga may have to pay market rates for this gas—3x to 4x higher than the subsidised rate of RM13.70/ mmbtu.

IOI Corp
We have an UNDERPERFORM rating on IOI Corp, primarily because:
We are concerned that a major liquidity crunch in the euro zone will result in a significant drop in palm oil prices, as we saw in 2008, with investors turning risk adverse against the commodity sector. In addition, palm oil prices have been kept buoyant by elevated demand of biodiesel from the EU and the US, which could weaken significantly should the governments retract the subsidy plans.
IOI Corp is trading at a prospective FY12E P/E of 19x, expensive relative to the Malaysian market P/E average of 13x and its sector peer average of 14x.
IOI Corp has minimal organic growth in the next few years, as its immature plantations only account for 10% of total planted acreage versus KL Kepong at 22% and Genting Plantations at 35%.

Top dividend plays
Malaysia is perceived as a ‘place to hide’. In every correction since the year 2000, MSCI Malaysia outperformed the MSCI NJA. Malaysia’s domestic funds are a force to reckon with, as they are natural buyers in the market and provide support to the Malaysian stock market when foreign investors are selling. This is evident as the local institutions and foreign trading patterns are almost “mirror images” of each other.

Malaysian stocks with high dividend yields and OUTPERFORM ratings include Maxis (net yield of 7.3%), Sunway REIT (5.8%), BAT (5.5%), CMMT (5.4%), Public Bank (5.2%) and DiGi (4.7%).

Market valuations & sector outlook
We estimate that Malaysia trades at 2011 and 2012 P/Es of 16.4x and 13.7x with earnings growth of 4.8% and 19.6%, respectively. However, stripping out MAS, Tenaga and MISC, we estimate earnings will grow at 12.6% and 9.2% in 2011 and 2012, respectively.




Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: Credit Suisse
Publish date:06/12/11

HPH Trust: 2012 outlook (JPM)

Hutchison Port Holdings Trust
2011 review & 2012 outlook;
maintain OW
Price: $0.66
Price Target: $0.80

2011 review - Behind the IPO target but ahead of peers: Throughput growth for 2011 came in at 5% for HK and 1% for Yantian, meeting the Trust's revised target as given at the 3Q analyst conference call. Although last year's actual throughput missed the IPO target of 7~8% growth, Hutch Ports outperformed peer ports in the markets they are in, particularly for HK as MTL took a blow from Maersk's relocation of shipping routes to Guangzhou. On the other hand, Yantian’s 1% growth in 2011 was also slightly better than the 1% decline by Western Shenzhen Ports. In particular, Yantian's 13% jump Y/Y in December alone was notably better than Yantian's underlying trend in 11M2011 (flat) and Western Shenzhen's growth in the same month (+2%). Overall, mgmt is confident in achieving the distribution target of HK$0.38 per unit for the year.

Outlook for 2012: Trade growth rates with US and Europe may remain weak this year, though transshipment growth, intra-Asia growth as well as trade with countries like Middle East should continue to grow. For Yantian, though organic growth is likely to be in low-single-digits, the port is keen in expanding into new trades other than US & Europe routes where it has low penetration rates. HK’s volume growth is likely to remain resilient in 2012, though cost control is a top initiative with transshipment being the volume driver, which has lower revenue yield than O&D trade. The Trust has not made any change to the 2012 distribution target; though admitting it may be challenging in meeting the target as given out at the IPO, it will try adjusting its capex schedule if deemed necessary.

Maintain OW; HPH Trust remains our top defensive play in the port sector: We retain our existing forecasts. Our DPU for FY12E is based on a potential recession scenario (a 3% volume growth and conservative margin projection), implies a 4% decline vs. last year’s annualized DPU— undemanding in our view, given mgmt intends to keep 2012 DPU steady in absolute terms (i.e. at least HK$0.48, the annualized 2011 DPU). Maintain our DCF-based, Dec-2012 PT of US$0.80.

Price target and valuation analysis
 We keep our earnings forecasts and our DCF-based Dec -12 PT of US$0.80. Our PT continues to be based on a terminal growth of 0% (reduced from the prior 1%) and a discount rate of 9.5% (unchanged), implies a dividend yield of 7.9% and 7.6% on FY11E (annualized) and FY12E.

 Maintain OW rating on the attractive total return. The total return based on the last price works out at 12~13%, inclusive of a 9~10% annual dividend and a c3% growth in cash flow on a longer-term basis

Business update & 2012 outlook
2011 operational review: Behind the IPO target but ahead of peers
Mgmt, at the 3Q analyst conference call held in October, trimmed the annual throughput growth target to 5% and 1% for HK and Yantian each (vs. the prior target of 7~8% set forth back at the IPO) for full-year 2011. A review of the throughput data up to December released by Shenzhen and HK port authorities suggests theTrust has met its revised volume target for 2011.

Although the 2011 actual throughput missed the IPO target due to weaker-thanexpected trade flows with US and Europe, Hutch Ports outperformed peer ports in the markets they are in, particularly in HK as MTL took a blow from Maersk’ relocation of shipping routes to Guangzhou Nansha. More specifically, HIT and COSCO-HIT combined achieved a throughput growth of 5~6%, better than the overall HK’s 2% growth during the year.

On the other hand, Yantian’s 1% growth in 2011, though below the IPO target, was also better than the 1% decline by Western Shenzhen Ports. In particular, Yantian’s 13% jump Y/Y in December alone was notably better than Yantian’s underlying trend (flat on 11M2011 basis) and Western Shenzhen’s 2% growth in the same month. That said, according to mgmt, December’s throughput data may have been inflated because of front-loading of cargo ahead of Chinese New Year holidays, which are earlier this year than before.

Mgmt noted that at last year’s year end, it has refinanced Yantian’s bank loans of HK$2.8 billion for another 5 years with a credit spread of 300 bps over HIBOR, higher than the previous rate but considered attractive in the current environment.

New target for 2012: Volume growth likely to remain soft
This year’s annual budget is expected to be finalized next month (February). Mgmt noted the trade growth rates with US and Europe may remain weak this year. On the other hand, mgmt expects transshipment growth, intra-Asia growth as well as trade with the some countries e.g. Middle East, South Africa and South American market to continue to grow, which help mitigate the slow US and European trade growth.

Volume growth in 2012 is not limited to organic growth of China exports.
Management expects Yantian to evolve into more of a general port rather than just focus on exports for the US and Europe, by expanding into domestic, intra-region and transshipment trade. Those other trades that Hutch ports want to increase market penetration in should be earnings accretive albeit of lower revenue yield. For Yantian, mgmt noted that organic volume growth may remain weak, in lowsingle- digits terms, based on the underlying trend as well as recent discussions with shipping liners. This is because Yantian historically has been very focused on the US and European trade, which altogether account for almost 70% of the volume that is in and out of Yantian. That said, mgmt in recent meetings has emphasized the interest in exploring other trades which Yantian currently has a very low market penetration, such as intra-Asia and transshipment. Even though these new trades have low revenue yield, mgmt expects the change in business models to be bottom line accretive. Worth noting however that Yantian's move into these new trades may be taking away market shares from other port operators nearby, resulting in fiercer competition in the same Pearl River Delta region, although mgmt emphasized that it has no intension to use price as a way for market share gains.

The rise of Guangzhou Nansha Port this year has not affected the performance of the Trust’s port assets. Guangzhou Nansha has been growing at a quicker rate than the rest of the terminals in Southern China, because of the port’s lower pricing partly enabled by the strong government backing. Guangzhou’s rise has had more impact to MTL than to HIT, and more to Western Shenzhen Ports than to Yantian.

On the other hand, Hong Kong’s volume growth may remain resilient in 2012, likely to achieve single-digit growth still, given the port is less reliant on the trade with US and Europe, but driven more by intra-region and transshipment. In particular, HK port’s competitiveness as a transshipment hub has been strengthened against Singapore and Busan aided by a weaker HK/USD. For 2012, cost control remains a top initiative for HK operations given that the key volume growth driver is transshipment which has lower revenue yield than O&D cargo.

DPU target & JPM forecast
At a recent call, mgmt remained confident in achieving the distribution target for FY11E as disclosed in the prospectus (HK$0.38 per unit for 9.5 months), with the final distribution to be paid in late March.

For this year, mgmt is still trying every possible means to meet 2012 target as set at the IPO as well, though admitting the task appears challenging based on the current sluggish volume run rate. Worst case scenario, if overall trade volume is down on Y/Y basis, the Trust will try to keep a steady DPU for 2012 in absolute terms (matching the annualized DPU for 2011, or HK$0.48 per unit on full-year basis). The Trust’s goal is to grow the DPU if there is volume growth, but if volume is flattish or on a decline, the Trust will try to manage that cost or consider pushing back some of the capex schedule allowing some surplus cash for distribution.

Maintain OW, retaining our existing forecasts. Our current estimates for HPH Trust have factored in a recession scenario. Our forecasts are largely base on a 3% volume growth and 1~2% pricing increase (driven by conversion of billings at Yantian into Rmb) for 2012/2013. Our current FY12E DPU implies a 4% reduction to the annualized DPU paid in 2011. We believe our forecasts are undemanding, given mgmt noted at recent calls that the Trust’s plan is to keep DPU steady at 2011 level.


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: J.P. Morgan
Publish date: 11/01/12

TEE International : Picking up the Momentum (SIAS)

TEE International Limited
Picking up the Momentum
Increase Exposure
• Intrinsic Value S$0.450
• Prev Closing S$0.240


TEE International Limited’s (TEE) posted an expected set of 2Q FY12 results with revenue coming in close to our projection of S$40m per quarter while earnings inched down 8.1% YoY to S$3.6m. 1H FY12 revenue and profit after tax was 31.2% and 29.3% of our FY12F respectively – the integrated real estate segment has yet to contribute anything to the P&L YTD and we expect the bulk of the existing projects’ milestones to be met by 4Q FY12F.

Both TEE’s M&E and integrated real estate divisions are still performing under current uncertain global climate, with healthy order book and contracted sales. Hence, we are keeping our market risk premium intact. Maintain Increase Exposure with an intrinsic value of S$0.450.

Key Developments:
• 2Q revenue declined 42.4% YoY to S$38.7m as last year’s 2Q revenue was boosted by several large scale projects that were close to completion. Gross profit fell by 32.3% owing to lower % of cost of sales to revenue while higher other operating income and contribution from associates helped to lower profit before tax’s YoY drop to 13.8%.
• Despite headwinds from the property sector, we understand that TEE’s projects have been selling well and this provides much comfort to our forecasts and earnings visibility.
• Over the past three months, TEE’s CEO/MD, Mr Phua Chian Kin had purchased about 1.7% of the company’s total outstanding shares from the open market, thereby increasing his direct and deemed stake to 56.2%. We view this as a signal of the management’s confidence in the company. TEE also declared interim dividend of 0.6 S cents per share this quarter, 20% more than the same quarter last year. We project FY12F dividend to be around 2.5 S cents, representing a dividend yield of about 10% given the current trading price of S$0.240.

Healthy Property Sales: Our recent chat with management revealed that TEE’s property projects are still doing well, with the Geylang site more than 90% sold, the Killiney Road and East Coast sites more than 70% sold and The Peak@Cairnhill (Phase 1) more than 60% sold. Though we expect sales going forward to decelerate, most of TEE’s remaining projects (other than The Peak@Cairnhill (Phase 2)) are priced at attractive prices of S$1,200-1,400 psf, which we believe will still be able to attract local buyers. Over the next three months, TEE may launch another three projects, The Peak@Cairnhill (Phase 2), the Camay Court and the 91 Marshall Road. We also expect TEE to recognize some profits (about S$1m) from the Thailand associates over the next two quarters.

M&E Division Remained Stable: M&E order book stood at a comfortable S$207.4m level which can last the division for at least 15 months. For 2Q FY12, we estimated TEE to secure about S$16.5m worth of new M&E projects. The associates in Thailand and Malaysia had about S$82.2m worth of projects.

CEO is Loading Up: Over the past three months, Mr Phua Chian Kin purchased about 5.9m shares (~1.7% of total shares outstanding) from the open market at about S$0.240 per share. We view this as a signal of management’s confidence in the company. TEE also declared 0.6 S cents interim dividend for this quarter.

Outlook and Forecasts: TEE is still keeping a lookout for quality sites, but with more demanding criteria. Though we expect property sales in Singapore to slow down, TEE should be able to sell off the remaining units given their small scale (the three projects that are poised to launch in 1Q FY12 have a total of 162 units only) and attractive quantum. Contribution from the M&E division and associates are likely to continue providing a stable stream of income. We are retaining our FY12F in view of potential recognition of real estate projects in 2H FY12. Maintain Increase Exposure with an intrinsic value of S$0.450.


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: SIAS-Research,
Publish date: 11/01/12
Warren E. Buffett(沃伦•巴菲特)
Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful
别人贪婪时我恐惧, 别人恐惧时我贪婪
投资只需学好两门课: 一,是如何给企业估值,二,是如何看待股市波动
吉姆·罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)
“错过时机”胜于“搞错对象”:不会全军覆没!”
做自己熟悉的事,等到发现大好机会才投钱下去

乔治·索罗斯(George Soros)

“犯错误并没有什么好羞耻的,只有知错不改才是耻辱。”

如果操作过量,即使对市场判断正确,仍会一败涂地。

李驰(中国巴菲特)
高估期间, 卖对, 不卖也对, 买是错的。
低估期间, 买对, 不买也是对, 卖是错的。

Tan Teng Boo


There’s no such thing as defensive stocks.Every stock can be defensive depending on what price you pay for it and what value you get,
冷眼(冯时能)投资概念
“买股票就是买公司的股份,买股份就是与陌生人合股做生意”。
合股做生意,则公司股份的业绩高于一切,而股票的价值决定于盈利。
价值是本,价格是末,故公司比股市重要百倍。
曹仁超-香港股神/港股明灯
1.有智慧,不如趁势
2.止损不止盈
成功者所以成功,是因为不怕失败!失败者所以失败,是失败后不再尝试!
曾淵滄-散户明灯
每逢灾难就是机会,而是在灾难发生时贱价买股票,然后放在一边,耐性地等灾难结束
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